WorldWideScience

Sample records for electricity spot prices

  1. Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen

    2007-01-01

    We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)

  2. Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels

    In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... in the spot price dynamics. Estimation of the spatial Durbin model show that the spatial lag variable is as important as the temporal lag variable in describing the spot price dynamics. We use the partial derivatives impact approach to decompose the price impacts into direct and indirect effects and we show...... that price effects transmit to neighboring markets and decline with distance. In order to examine the evolution of the spatial correlation over time, a time varying parameters spot price spatial Durbin model is estimated using recursive estimation. It is found that the spatial correlation within the Nord...

  3. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

  4. A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, C.L.D.

    2004-07-01

    Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

  5. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

    1998-01-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  6. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  7. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  8. Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tomasso; Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar

    Electricity spot prices are subject to transitory sharp movements commonly referred to as spikes. The paper aims at assessing their effects on model based inferences and predictions, with reference to the Nord Pool power exchange. We identify a spike as a price value which deviates substantially...

  9. Time-varying convergence in European electricity spot markets and their association with carbon and fuel prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.; Tamvakis, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Long-run dynamics of electricity prices are expected to reflect fuel price developments, since fuels generally account for a large share in the cost of generation. As an integrated European market for electricity develops, wholesale electricity prices should be converging as a result of market coupling and increased interconnectivity. Electricity mixes are also changing, spurred by a drive to significantly increase the share of renewables. Consequently, the electricity wholesale price dynamics are evolving, and the fuel–electricity price nexus that has been described in the literature is likely to reflect this evolution. This study investigates associations between spot prices from the British, French and Nordpool markets with those in connected electricity markets and fuel input prices, from December 2005 to October 2013. In order to assess the time-varying dynamics of electricity spot price series, localized autocorrelation functions are used. Electricity spot prices in the three markets are found to have stationary and non-stationary periods. When a trend in spot prices is observed, it is likely to reflect the trend in fuel prices. Cointegration analysis is then used to assess co-movement between electricity spot prices and fuel inputs to generation. The results show that British electricity spot prices are associated with fuel prices and not with price developments in connected markets, while the opposite is observed in the French and Nordpool day-ahead markets. - Highlights: • Electricity market integration policies may have altered EU spot electricity prices. • LACF is used to assess the changing nature of electricity spot prices. • EU electricity spot prices show both stationary and non-stationary periods. • Carbon and fuel prices have greater impact on British spot prices. • In continental Europe, electricity prices have decoupled from fuel prices.

  10. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

  11. Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

  12. Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

  13. Transmission of prices and price volatility in Australian electricity spot markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worthington, A.; Kay-Spratley, A.; Higgs, H.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the transmission of spot electricity prices and price volatility among the five regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market: namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, the Snowy Mountains Hydroelectric Scheme and Victoria. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model is used to identify the source and magnitude of price and price volatility spillovers. The results indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in only a small number of markets and no mean spillovers between any of the markets. This appears to be directly related to the physical transfer limitations of the present system of regional interconnection. Nevertheless, the large number of significant own-volatility and cross-volatility spillovers in all five markets indicates the presence of strong autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity effects. This indicates that shocks in some markets will affect price volatility in others. Finally, and contrary to evidence from studies in North American electricity markets, the results also indicate that Australian electricity spot prices are stationary. (author)

  14. Forward and Spot Prices in Multi-Settlement Wholesale Electricity Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larrieu, Jeremy

    In organized wholesale electricity markets, power is sold competitively in a multi-unit multi-settlement single-price auction comprised of a forward and a spot market. This dissertation attempts to understand the structure of the forward premium in these markets, and to identify the factors that may lead forward and spot prices to converge or diverge. These markets are unique in that the forward demand is price-sensitive, while spot residual demand is perfectly inelastic and must be met in full, a crucial design feature the literature often glosses over. An important contribution of this dissertation is the explicit modeling of each market separately in order to understand how generation and load choose to act in each one, and the consequences of these actions on equilibrium prices and quantities given that firms maximize joint profits over both markets. In the first essay, I construct a two-settlement model of electricity prices in which firms that own asymmetric capacity-constrained units facing convex costs compete to meet demand from consumers, first in quantities, then in prices. I show that the forward premium depends on the costliness of spot production relative to firms' ability to exercise market power by setting quantities in the forward market. In the second essay, I test the model from the first essay with unit-level capacity and marginal cost data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO). I show that the model closely replicates observed price formation in the CAISO. In the third essay, I estimate a time series model of the CAISO forward premium in order to measure the impact that virtual bidding has had on forward and spot price convergence in California between April 2009 and March 2014. I find virtual bidding to have caused forward and spot prices to diverge due to the large number of market participants looking to hedge against - or speculate on - the occurrence of infrequent but large spot price spikes by placing virtual demand bids.

  15. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  16. A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting

  17. HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erlwein, Christina; Benth, Fred Espen; Mamon, Rogemar

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a hidden Markov chain in discrete time. They are able to switch between different economic regimes representing the interaction of various factors. Through the application of reference probability technique, adaptive filters are derived, which in turn, provide optimal estimates for the state of the Markov chain and related quantities of the observation process. The EM algorithm is applied to find optimal estimates of the model parameters in terms of the recursive filters. We implement this self-calibrating model on a deseasonalised series of daily spot electricity prices from the Nordic exchange Nord Pool. On the basis of one-step ahead forecasts, we found that the model is able to capture the empirical characteristics of Nord Pool spot prices. (author)

  18. On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Tim; Luther, Joachim

    2004-01-01

    Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity

  19. On the correlation of electricity spot market prices and photovoltaic electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, T.; Luther, J.

    2004-01-01

    Discussions about market introduction of grid connected photovoltaics (PV) and its costs usually concentrate only on the gross energy produced without taking the time dependency of electricity prices and, thus, the time dependency of the value of PV electricity into account. To make a first approximation of what the effect of the time variance of electricity cost on the value of PV electricity is, the correlation with spot market prices is analysed in this paper. PV is not dispatchable by nature, but is relatively well predictable in the range of one day, if the average of spatially dispersed systems is considered. Thus, this correlation gives a good indication for the additional value of PV electricity. (Author)

  20. The impact of wind generation on the electricity spot-market price level and variance: The Texas experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Horowitz, I.; Moore, J.; Pacheco, A.

    2011-01-01

    The literature on renewable energy suggests that an increase in intermittent wind generation would reduce the spot electricity market price by displacing high fuel-cost marginal generation. Taking advantage of a large file of Texas-based 15-min data, we show that while rising wind generation does indeed tend to reduce the level of spot prices, it is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. The key policy implication is that increasing use of price risk management should accompany expanded deployment of wind generation. - Highlights: → Rising wind generation in ERCOT tends to reduce electricity spot prices. → Rising wind generation in ERCOT is also likely to enlarge the spot-price variance. → Increased price risk management should accompany expanded wind power deployment.

  1. Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

  2. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

  3. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices. An exploratory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevallier, Julien [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

    2010-08-15

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content. (author)

  4. The impact of Australian ETS news on wholesale spot electricity prices: An exploratory analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevallier, Julien, E-mail: julien.chevallier@dauphine.f [Universite Paris Dauphine, Place du Marechal de Lattre de Tassigny, 75775 Paris Cedex 16 (France)

    2010-08-15

    This article investigates the impact of news concerning the development of emissions trading in Australia (such as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS)) on wholesale electricity spot prices, by using a database of 117 news announcements from December 1, 1998 to July 1, 2009. As power producers constitute the bulk of the participants of the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, regulatory changes (about allocation, banking, coverage, targets) are indeed likely to affect the five interconnected electricity markets in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania. We assess these effects with an ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model, where daily electricity spot prices are regressed against exogenous variables in the mean and variance equations. This article constitutes the first empirical analysis of Australian ETS news effects on electricity wholesale spot prices. Our results show two asymmetric types of news effects, depending on their information content.

  5. Forecasting Electricity Spot Prices Accounting for Wind Power Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    A two-step methodology for forecasting of electricity spot prices is introduced, with focus on the impact of predicted system load and wind power generation. The nonlinear and nonstationary influence of these explanatory variables is accommodated in a first step based on a nonparametric and time...

  6. The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Kristiansen, Tarjei; Ilic, Marija D.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze 11 years of historical spot- and futures prices from the hydro-dominated Nord Pool electricity market. We find that futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. The average convenience yield is therefore negative, but varies by season and depends on the storage levels in hydro reservoirs. The average realized return on holding a long position in the futures market is also negative. The negative convenience yield and risk premium contrast empirical findings in most other commodity markets. We argue that differences between the supply and demand sides in terms of risk preferences and the ability to take advantage of short-term price variations can contribute to explain the observed relationship between spot- and futures prices. In addition, our analysis shows that the relationship between spot and futures prices is clearly linked to the physical state of the system, such as hydro inflow, reservoir levels, and demand. (author)

  7. Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

  8. Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2006-01-01

    Combining recent advances in causal flows with time series analysis, relationships among 11 U.S. spot market electricity prices are examined. Results suggest that the relationships among the markets vary by time frame. In contemporaneous time, the western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time frames these separations disappear, even though electricity transmission between the regions is limited. It appears the relationships among markets are not only a function of physical assets (such as transmissions lines among markets), but by similar and dissimilar institutional arrangements among the markets. (Author)

  9. Influence of TCSC on congestion and spot price in electricity market with bilateral contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acharya, Naresh; Mithulananthan, Nadarajah

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the effect of TCSC on congestion and spot price in deregulated electricity markets. The paper could also be considered as a comprehensive tutorial on the influence of TCSC in electricity market. A voluntary pool market, where the market participants can trade electricity either via a pool or through bilateral contracts is considered. The electricity market is modeled in an optimal power flow framework with the objective of maximizing the social welfare. In such formulation, the Lagrange operators associated with the equality constraints associated with real power balance give the spot prices of energy at each bus of the system. Studies are carried out with and without TCSC at peak and low loading conditions to capture the influence and to see the effectiveness of TCSC at different loading conditions. The paper further explores the effect of TCSC compensation level on the spot prices and the congestion under varying pool and bilateral loading conditions. A 5-bus test system is used for numerical studies and to showcase the influence of TCSC in an electricity market environment. (author)

  10. An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janczura, Joanna [Hugo Steinhaus Center, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland); Weron, Rafal [Institute of Organization and Management, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

    2010-09-15

    One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

  11. An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janczura, Joanna; Weron, Rafal

    2010-01-01

    One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

  12. Forecasting electricity spot market prices with a k-factor GIGARCH process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diongue, Abdou Ka; Guegan, Dominique; Vignal, Bertrand

    2009-01-01

    In this article, we investigate conditional mean and conditional variance forecasts using a dynamic model following a k-factor GIGARCH process. Particularly, we provide the analytical expression of the conditional variance of the prediction error. We apply this method to the German electricity price market for the period August 15, 2000-December 31, 2002 and we test spot prices forecasts until one-month ahead forecast. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA-GARCH benchmark model using the year 2003 as the out-of-sample. The proposed model outperforms clearly the benchmark model. We conclude that the k-factor GIGARCH process is a suitable tool to forecast spot prices, using the classical RMSE criteria. (author)

  13. Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

  14. Optimal operation strategies of compressed air energy storage (CAES) on electricity spot markets with fluctuating prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Henrik; Salgi, Georges; Elmegaard, Brian

    2009-01-01

    on electricity spot markets by storing energy when electricity prices are low and producing electricity when prices are high. In order to make a profit on such markets, CAES plant operators have to identify proper strategies to decide when to sell and when to buy electricity. This paper describes three...... plants will not be able to achieve such optimal operation, since the fluctuations of spot market prices in the coming hours and days are not known. Consequently, two simple practical strategies have been identified and compared to the results of the optimal strategy. This comparison shows that...... independent computer-based methodologies which may be used for identifying the optimal operation strategy for a given CAES plant, on a given spot market and in a given year. The optimal strategy is identified as the one which provides the best business-economic net earnings for the plant. In practice, CAES...

  15. High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutler, Nicholas J.; Boerema, Nicholas D.; MacGill, Iain F.; Outhred, Hugh R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations. - Highlights: → In South Australia (SA) wind generation is having an influence on market prices. → Little or no correlation is found between wind generation and demand. → Wind farms in SA are receiving a lower average price than in other States. → The results highlight the importance of appropriate electricity market design.

  16. Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, Phillip; Hinich, Melvin J.; Foster, John

    2010-01-01

    In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to June 2009 to test for episodic nonlinearity in the dynamics governing daily and weekly cycles in load and spot price time series data. We apply the portmanteau correlation, bicorrelation and tricorrelation tests introduced in Hinich (1996) to the time series of half hourly spot prices and load demand from 7/12/1998 to 30/06/2009 using a FORTRAN 95 program. We find the presence of significant third and fourth-order (nonlinear) serial dependence in the weekly load and spot price data in particular, but to a much more marginal extent, in the daily data. (author)

  17. Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowotarski, Jakub; Tomczyk, Jakub; Weron, Rafał

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of an extensive study on estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of electricity spot prices. We consider a battery of over 300 models, including monthly dummies and models based on Fourier or wavelet decomposition combined with linear or exponential decay. We find that the considered wavelet-based models are significantly better in terms of forecasting spot prices up to a year ahead than the commonly used monthly dummies and sine-based models. This result questions the validity and usefulness of stochastic models of spot electricity prices built on the latter two types of LTSC models. - Highlights: • First comprehensive study on the forecasting of the long-term seasonal components • Over 300 models examined, including commonly used and new approaches • Wavelet-based models outperform sine-based and monthly dummy models. • Validity of stochastic models built on sines or monthly dummies is questionable

  18. Analysis of electricity price in Danish competitive electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. 10 year actual data from the Danish competitive electricity market are collected and analyzed. The relationship among the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price), the consumption and the wind power generation...... in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price and the regulation price generally decrease when the wind power penetration in the power system increases or the consumption of the power system decreases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price and the regulation price for different...... consumption periods and wind power penetration are analyzed. Simulation results show that the findings of this paper are useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal bidding strategy so that the imbalance cost of trading wind power on the electricity market could be reduced....

  19. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  20. Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janczura, Joanna; Trück, Stefan; Weron, Rafał; Wolff, Rodney C.

    2013-01-01

    An important issue in fitting stochastic models to electricity spot prices is the estimation of a component to deal with trends and seasonality in the data. Unfortunately, estimation routines for the long-term and short-term seasonal pattern are usually quite sensitive to extreme observations, known as electricity price spikes. Improved robustness of the model can be achieved by (a) filtering the data with some reasonable procedure for outlier detection, and then (b) using estimation and testing procedures on the filtered data. In this paper we examine the effects of different treatments of extreme observations on model estimation and on determining the number of spikes (outliers). In particular we compare results for the estimation of the seasonal and stochastic components of electricity spot prices using either the original or filtered data. We find significant evidence for a superior estimation of both the seasonal short-term and long-term components when the data have been treated carefully for outliers. Overall, our findings point out the substantial impact the treatment of extreme observations may have on these issues and, therefore, also on the pricing of electricity derivatives like futures and option contracts. An added value of our study is the ranking of different filtering techniques used in the energy economics literature, suggesting which methods could be and which should not be used for spike identification. - Highlights: • First comprehensive study on the impact of spikes on seasonal pattern estimation • The effects of different treatments of spikes on model estimation are examined. • Cleaning spot prices for outliers yields superior estimates of the seasonal pattern. • Removing outliers provides better parameter estimates for the stochastic process. • Rankings of filtering techniques suggested in the literature are provided

  1. Rough electricity: a new fractal multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bennedsen, Mikkel

    We introduce a new mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, fractality, and our approach...... explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of Benth et al. (2007) and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein Uhlenbeck-based model and a fractal model. Further, through...... the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating - and making inference on - the degree of fractality. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial to accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model...

  2. The Relationship Between Electricity Price and Wind Power Generation in Danish Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    of competitive electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system. The relationship between the electricity price (both the spot price and the regulation price) and the wind power generation in an electricity market is investigated in this paper. The spot price, the down regulation price...... and the up regulation price generally decreases when the wind power penetration in the power system increases. The statistical characteristics of the spot price for different wind power penetration are analyzed. The findings of this paper may be useful for wind power generation companies to make the optimal...... bidding strategy and may be also useful for the optimal operation of modern power systems with high wind power penetrations....

  3. Automatic demand response referred to electricity spot price. Demo description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grande, Ove S.; Livik, Klaus; Hals, Arne

    2006-05-01

    This report presents background, technical solution and results from a test project (Demo I) developed in the DRR Norway) project. Software and technology from two different vendors, APAS and Powel ASA, are used to demonstrate a scheme for Automatic Demand Response (ADR) referred to spot price level and a system for documentation of demand response and cost savings. Periods with shortage of energy supply and hardly any investments in new production capacity have turned focus towards the need for increased price elasticity on the demand side in the Nordic power market. The new technology for Automatic Meter Reading (AMR) and Remote Load Control (RLC) provides an opportunity to improve the direct market participation from the demand side by introducing automatic schemes that reduce the need for customer attention to hourly market prices. The low prioritized appliances, and not the total load, are in this report defined as the Demand Response Objects, based on the assumption that there is a limit for what the customers are willing to pay for different uses of electricity. Only disconnection of residential water heaters is included in the demo, due to practical limitations. The test was performed for a group of single family houses over a period of 2 months. All the houses were equipped with a radio controlled 'Ebox' unit attached to the water heater socket. The settlement and invoicing were based on hourly metered values (kWh/h), which means that the customer benefit is equivalent to the accumulated changes in the electricity cost per hour. The actual load reduction is documented by comparison between the real meter values for the period and a reference curve. The curves show significant response to the activated control in the morning hours. In the afternoon it is more difficult to register the response, probably due to 'disturbing' activities like cooking etc. Demo I shows that load reduction referred to spot price level can be done in a smooth way. The experiences

  4. The merit-order effect: A detailed analysis of the price effect of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensfuss, Frank; Ragwitz, Mario; Genoese, Massimo

    2008-01-01

    The German feed-in support of electricity generation from renewable energy sources has led to high growth rates of the supported technologies. Critics state that the costs for consumers are too high. An important aspect to be considered in the discussion is the price effect created by renewable electricity generation. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of privileged renewable electricity generation on the electricity market in Germany. The central aspect to be analysed is the impact of renewable electricity generation on spot market prices. The results generated by an agent-based simulation platform indicate that the financial volume of the price reduction is considerable. In the short run, this gives rise to a distributional effect which creates savings for the demand side by reducing generator profits. In the case of the year 2006, the volume of the merit-order effect exceeds the volume of the net support payments for renewable electricity generation which have to be paid by consumers. (author)

  5. An empirical comparison of alternative schemes for combining electricity spot price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowotarski, Jakub; Raviv, Eran; Trück, Stefan; Weron, Rafał

    2014-01-01

    In this comprehensive empirical study we critically evaluate the use of forecast averaging in the context of electricity prices. We apply seven averaging and one selection scheme and perform a backtesting analysis on day-ahead electricity prices in three major European and US markets. Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts of individual methods for deriving more accurate predictions, however, the performance is not uniform across the considered markets and periods. In particular, equally weighted pooling of forecasts emerges as a simple, yet powerful technique compared with other schemes that rely on estimated combination weights, but only when there is no individual predictor that consistently outperforms its competitors. Constrained least squares regression (CLS) offers a balance between robustness against such well performing individual methods and relatively accurate forecasts, on average better than those of the individual predictors. Finally, some popular forecast averaging schemes – like ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) – turn out to be unsuitable for predicting day-ahead electricity prices. - Highlights: • So far the most extensive study on combining forecasts for electricity spot prices • 12 stochastic models, 8 forecast combination schemes and 3 markets considered • Our findings support the additional benefit of combining forecasts for deriving more accurate predictions • Methods that allow for unconstrained weights, such as OLS averaging, should be avoided • We recommend a backtesting exercise to identify the preferred forecast averaging method for the data at hand

  6. Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K.; Horowitz, I.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium

  7. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-05-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.

  8. Evaluating the market splitting determinants: evidence from the Iberian spot electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da; Cerqueira, Pedro A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the main determinants on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. Iberia stands as an ideal case-study, where the high level deployment of wind power is observed, together with the implementation of the market splitting arrangement between the Portuguese and the Spanish spot electricity markets. Logit and non-parametric models are used to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices as a function of the explanatory variables representing the main technologies in the generation mix: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power, together with the available transfer capacity and electricity demand. Logit models give preliminary indications about market splitting behaviour, and then, notwithstanding the demanding computational challenge, a non-parametric model is applied in order to overcome the limitations of the former models. Results show an increase of market splitting probability with higher wind power generation or, more generally, with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity such as nuclear power generation. The European interconnection capacity target of 10% of the peak demand of the smallest interconnected market might be insufficient to maintain electricity market integration. Therefore, pro-active coordination policies, governing both interconnections and renewables deployment, should be further developed. -- Highlights: •Assess determinants on market splitting behaviour of Iberian electricity markets. •Logit and non-parametric models to express market splitting probability response. •Explanatory variables: wind, hydro, thermal and nuclear power; ATC and demand. •Results: increase of market splitting probability with higher availability of low marginal cost electricity. •Coordination policies governing both interconnections and renewables deployment

  9. Cross hedging and forward-contract pricing of electricity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woo, C.-K.; Hoang, K. [Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 353 Sacramento Street, Suite 1700, 94111 San Francisco, CA (United States); Horowitz, I. [Decision and Information Sciences, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, 32611 Gainesville, FL (United States)

    2001-01-01

    We consider the problem of an electric-power marketer offering a fixed-price forward contract to provide electricity that it purchases from a potentially volatile and unpredictable fledgling spot energy market. One option for the risk-averse marketer who wants to hedge against the spot-price volatility is to engage in cross hedging to reduce the contract's profit variance, and to determine the forward-contract price as a risk-adjusted price - the sum of a baseline price and a risk premium. We show how the marketer can estimate the spot-price relationship between two wholesale energy markets for the purpose of cross hedging, as well as the optimal hedge and the forward contract's baseline price and risk premium.

  10. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso

    2010-01-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  11. Computation of spot prices and congestion costs in large interconnected power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukerji, R.; Jordan, G.A.; Clayton, R.; Haringa, G.E.

    1995-01-01

    Foremost among the new paradigms for the US utility industry is the ''poolco'' concept proposed by Prof. William W. Hogan of Harvard University. This concept uses a central pool or power exchange in which physical power is traded based on spot prices or market clearing prices. The rapid and accurate calculation of these ''spot'' prices and associated congestion costs for large interconnected power systems is the central tenet upon which the poolco concept is based. The market clearing price would be the same throughout the system if there were no system losses and transmission limitations did not exist. System losses cause small differences in market clearing prices as the cost of supplying a MW at various load buses includes the cost of losses. Transmission limits may cause large differences in market clearing prices between regions as low cost generation is blocked by the transmission constraints from serving certain loads. In models currently in use in the electric power industry spot price calculations range from ''bubble diagram'' type contract path models to full electrical representation such as GE-MAPS. The modeling aspects of the full electrical representation are included in the Appendix. The problem with the bubble diagram representation is that these models are liable to produce unacceptably large errors in the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs. The subtleties of the calculation of spot prices and congestion costs are illustrated in this paper

  12. Optimal methodology for a machining process scheduling in spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusta, J.M.; Torres, F.; Khodr, H.M.

    2010-01-01

    Electricity spot markets have introduced hourly variations in the price of electricity. These variations allow the increase of the energy efficiency by the appropriate scheduling and adaptation of the industrial production to the hourly cost of electricity in order to obtain the maximum profit for the industry. In this article a mathematical optimization model simulates costs and the electricity demand of a machining process. The resultant problem is solved using the generalized reduced gradient approach, to find the optimum production schedule that maximizes the industry profit considering the hourly variations of the price of electricity in the spot market. Different price scenarios are studied to analyze the impact of the spot market prices for electricity on the optimal scheduling of the machining process and on the industry profit. The convenience of the application of the proposed model is shown especially in cases of very high electricity prices.

  13. A bid solicitation and selection method for developing a competitive spot priced electric market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ancona, J.J.

    1997-01-01

    The electric utility industry is in the beginning throes of a transformation from a cost-based regulated structure to a more market based less regulated system. Traditional unit commitment and economic dispatch methodologies can continue to provide reliable least-cost solutions, providing they are modified to accommodate a larger sphere of market participants. This paper offers a method for an entity such as an Independent System Operator (ISO) to solicit and evaluate bids for developing a spot priced electric market by replicating existing utility practices that are effective and efficient, while creating an open and equitable competitive marketplace for electricity

  14. Price signals and investment incentives in wholesale electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassilopoulos, Philippe

    2007-01-01

    We look at how prices from energy-only power markets can send the right signals and give the correct incentives for investments in production capacity. Through numerical simulations of spot prices over 2003-2005 we compare the investment signal sent by observed electricity prices in France and what would be competitive prices with an optimal mix and with the installed capacity. Observed prices tend to overestimate profitability for the base-load, making the signal too strong and underestimate profitability for the peak load, making the signal too weak. However, as a large share of consumers is still paying regulated tariffs, scarcity rents are capped. We simulate future prices for France for 2010 to 2020 to understand the incentives to invest. When the entry is free, the incentives to invest given by the future prices are consistent with the optimal mix including the interconnections and nuclear build is strong. With political or regulatory barriers to the construction of new power plants for new entrants (i.e. finding new sites), there are no incentives for the incumbent (that owns all existing base-load and peak load capacity) to add more nuclear capacity. In this situation, new entry would have to be coal or gas except if units are bid strategically to maintain profitability and market share. Moreover, it can also be profitable to limit prices and restrain entry in order to receive higher future revenues. When the base-load is less concentrated and instead of a dominant firm the nuclear capacity is divided into five (equal share) firms, the incentives to invest reappear and the threat of entry becomes more credible. (author) [fr

  15. Using neural networks and extreme value distributions to model electricity pool prices: Evidence from the Australian National Electricity Market 1998–2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dev, Priya; Martin, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Neural nets are unable to properly capture spiky price behavior found in the electricity market. • We modeled electricity price data from the Australian National Electricity Market over 15 years. • Neural nets need to be augmented with other modeling techniques to capture price spikes. • We fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price spikes using a peaks-over-thresholds approach. - Abstract: Competitors in the electricity supply industry desire accurate predictions of electricity spot prices to hedge against financial risks. Neural networks are commonly used for forecasting such prices, but certain features of spot price series, such as extreme price spikes, present critical challenges for such modeling. We investigate the predictive capacity of neural networks for electricity spot prices using Australian National Electricity Market data. Following neural net modeling of the data, we explore extreme price spikes through extreme value modeling, fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution to price peaks over an estimated threshold. While neural nets capture the smoother aspects of spot price data, they are unable to capture local, volatile features that characterize electricity spot price data. Price spikes can be modeled successfully through extreme value modeling

  16. Comparing the spot prices from Powernext and EEX

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galli, A.; Armstrong, M.

    2005-01-01

    Powernext SA is a Multilateral Trading Facility in charge of managing the French power exchange through an optional and anonymous organised exchange. Powernext started operating on 27 November 2001. Although the German exchange, EEX, has been functioning for much longer, the two have many common points. Both use the same system for fixing the day-ahead spot price, the one developed by NordPool. In contrast to Omel in Spain, power producers in France and Germany are not obliged to sell through the exchange. In addition, the cross-border transmission lines that physically link the French and German grids, not only make the electricity supply more reliable they also allow cross-border commercial transactions which should homogenize prices in both countries. So after nearly a year of operation it is interesting to compare the spot prices on the two exchanges in order to have a better understanding of the statistical properties of the prices in the two markets and the relationship between them. This information will be used when modelling the structure of the day-ahead spot prices. The data used to carry out the study consists of the (hourly) spot prices for electricity from Powernext and EEX, for the period from 1 January 2002 to 2 December 2002. Data from the first five weeks of trading were not included because traded volumes were relatively low initially and so these data are not necessarily representative. This report is divided into four sections. The first one presents the basic statistics, starting with the histograms of all the 8064 spot prices in the 336 days, for both exchanges. In time series data, it is usual to find three types of seasonality: daily, weekly and annual. As the available data cover less than one calendar year, it is too early to attempt to study annual trends. So we limit ourselves to studying daily and weekly fluctuations. Plotting the hourly average prices for each day of the week shows some interesting differences between Powernext and

  17. Wind power feed-in impact on electricity prices in Germany 2009-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Benhmad

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Until quite recently no electricity system had faced the challenges associated with high penetrations of renewable energy sources (RES. In this paper, we carry out an empirical analysis for Germany, as a country with high penetration of wind energy, to investigate the well-known merit-order effect. Our main empirical findings suggest that the increasing share of wind power in-feed induces a decrease of electricity spot price level but an increase of spot prices volatility. Furthermore, the relationship between wind power and spot electricity prices can be strongly impacted by European electricity grids interconnection which behaves like a safety valve lowering volatility and limiting the price decrease. Therefore, the impacts of wind generated electricity on electricity spot markets are less clearly pronounced in interconnected systems.

  18. Markets in real electric networks require reactive prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.W.

    1996-01-01

    Extending earlier seminal work, the author finds that locational spot price differences in an electric network provide the natural measure of the appropriate internodal transport charge. However, the problem of loop flow requires different economic intuition for interpreting the implications of spot pricing. The Direct Current model, which is the usual approximation for estimating spot prices, ignores reactive power effects; this approximation is best when thermal constraints create network congestion. However, when voltage constraints are problematic, the DC Load model is insufficient; a full AC Model is required to determine both real and reactive spot prices. 16 figs., 3 tabs., 22 refs

  19. The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paraschiv, Florentina; Erni, David; Pietsch, Ralf

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the impact of renewable energies, wind and photovoltaic, on the formation of day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. We give an overview of the policy decisions concerning the promotion of renewable energy sources in Germany and discuss their consequences on day-ahead prices. An analysis of electricity spot prices reveals that the introduction of renewable energies enhances extreme price changes. In the frame of a dynamic fundamental model, we show that there has been a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. Furthermore, the fundamental drivers of prices differ among hours with different load profiles. Our results imply that renewable energies decrease market spot prices and have implications on the traditional fuel mix for electricity production. However, the prices for the final consumers increased overall because they must pay in addition the feed-in tariffs for the promotion of renewable energy. - Highlights: • We analyze the impact of renewable energies on the day-ahead electricity prices at EEX. • We discuss the impact of renewables on day-ahead prices. • We show a continuous electricity price adaption process to market fundamentals. • Renewable energies decrease market spot prices and shift the merit order curve. • The prices for the final consumers however increased because of feed-in tariffs

  20. Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid from 1 January 2003. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis.The prices for transmission services 1 January 2003 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 882 for flats, SEK 4 335 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1 925 for those without electric heating. Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2003 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households with standard agreements was SEK 0.519 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.447 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.471 without electric heating. As a result, the mean annual cost increased by SEK 326 for flats, SEK 3 012 for one- or two-family houses with electric heating, and by SEK 774 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by about 290 per cent during 2002 (1 USD is about 8 SEK)

  1. Prices on electricity and transmission of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This publication contains data on prices of electric energy and transmission of electricity valid on 1 January 2002. The purpose is to illustrate the price changes on the electricity market in terms of prices for different customer categories. All companies holding network concessions for areas and all companies trading in electricity are included in this report, which is produced on an annual basis. The prices for transmission services 1 January 2002 were on the whole unchanged compared to the preceding year. For households the mean annual cost was SEK 856 for flats, SEK 4,194 one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 1,881 without electric heating. (1 SEK ∼ 0.1 USD). Electricity prices rose considerably on 1 January 2002 compared to the year before. The mean price per kWh for households according to standard agreement was SEK 0.356 for deliveries to flats, SEK 0.296 for apartments in one- or two-family houses with electric heating and SEK 0.316 without electric heating. That means that the mean annual cost increased by SEK 171 for flats. For one- or two-family houses with electric heating, costs increased by SEK 1,424, and by SEK 379 for those houses without electric heating. The high costs of electricity may be explained in part by the development on the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool), where the spot price increased by 75 per cent during 2001. The price development for household customers during 1996-2002 is shown in a diagram

  2. Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redl, Christian; Haas, Reinhard; Huber, Claus; Boehm, Bernhard

    2009-01-01

    Since the liberalisation of the European electricity sector, forward and futures contracts have gained significant interest of market participants due to risk management reasons. For pricing of these contracts an important fact concerns the non-storability of electricity. In this case, according to economic theory, forward prices are related to the expected spot prices which are built on fundamental market expectations. In the following article the crucial impact parameters of forward electricity prices and the relationship between forward and future spot prices will be assessed by an empirical analysis of electricity prices at the European Energy Exchange and the Nord Pool Power Exchange. In fact, price formation in the considered markets is influenced by historic spot market prices yielding a biased forecasting power of long-term contracts. Although market and risk assessment measures of market participants and supply and demand shocks can partly explain the futures-spot bias inefficiencies in the analysed forward markets cannot be ruled out. (author)

  3. Electricity storages - optimised operation based on spot market prices; Stromspeicher. Optimierte Fahrweise auf Basis der Spotmarktpreise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernhard, Dominik; Roon, Serafin von [FfE Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

    2010-06-15

    With its integrated energy and climate package the last federal government set itself ambitious goals for the improvement of energy efficiency and growth of renewable energy production. These goals were confirmed by the new government in its coalition agreement. However, they can only be realised if the supply of electricity from fluctuating renewable sources can be made to coincide with electricity demand. Electricity storages are therefore an indispensable component of the future energy supply system. This article studies the optimised operation of an electricity storage based on spot market prices and the influence of wind power production up to the year 2020.

  4. Model for calculation of spot prices and uncertainties integration; Modelo de calculo de precos spot e integracao de incertezas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraiva, J. Tome [Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), Porto (Portugal). E-mail: jsaraiva@inescn.pt

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents a model for systematic and structured impact evaluation of the uncertainties existent in the load powers, on the spot prices on the various bars of a electric power system. The application developed allows the specification of load power as inaccurate trapezoidal numbers and adopts the DC model for the representation of system exploration conditions. Considering the influence of the loss power on the formulation of a spot prices spatial distribution, the model allows the inclusion of transmission network loss estimation. The results correspond to appurtenance functions of spot prices in each barm, consisting of a discrete set of ordered pais which integrates the spot price values and the appurtenance or compatibility level, in accordance with Fuzzy Sets.

  5. Structural and behavioural foundations of competitive electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-01-01

    This chapter presents a basic introduction to price formation in the new electricity markets and examines power system economics and electricity market liberalisation. Topics discussed include wholesale electricity prices, the case of gas, the effect of the instantaneous nature of the electricity product, spot markets for electricity, and the ability of industrial companies to influence prices. Market fundamentals are reviewed, and institutional reform and strategic evolution are explored. British daily average power and gas prices, monthly forward prices on the British power and gas markets, seasonal demand profile, electricity demand UK 98/00, annual cost of each plant, price formation in 1997, and monthly demand and wholesale prices in England and Wales 1990-1998 are among the graphs provided

  6. The real-time price elasticity of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lijesen, Mark G.

    2007-01-01

    The real-time price elasticity of electricity contains important information on the demand response of consumers to the volatility of peak prices. Despite the importance, empirical estimates of the real-time elasticity are hardly available. This paper provides a quantification of the real-time relationship between total peak demand and spot market prices. We find a low value for the real-time price elasticity, which may partly be explained from the fact that not all users observe the spot market price. If we correct for this phenomenon, we find the elasticity to be fairly low for consumers currently active in the spot market. If this conclusion applies to all users, this would imply a limited scope for government intervention in supply security issues. (Author)

  7. Electricity pricing: optimal operation and investment by industrial consumers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Outhred, H.R.; Kaye, R.J.; Sutanto, D.; Manimaran, R.; Bannister, C.H.; Lee, Y.B.

    1988-08-01

    Ongoing research in the areas of economically efficient electricity pricing and industrial consumer response is described. A new electricity pricing theory is described that incorporates future uncertainty and intertemporal linkages between decisions. It indicates that electricity prices should contain two terms - short-run marginal cost plus a term that reflects how each particular decision is likely to affect future global welfare. A practical implementation using spot prices and forward contracts plus financial instruments for risk sharing and decision coordination is explored, and a procedure for developing long-term pricing policy is considered. The operation of industrial plant has been investigated and models developed to optimize plant behaviour in response to spot prices and forward contracts for electricity. These models are described and results of simulation studies discussed. The economic efficiency and risk sharing advantages of this advanced tariff structure compared with a conventional time-of-use tariff are illustrated.

  8. High prices on electric power now again?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doorman, Gerard

    2003-01-01

    Deregulation of the electric power market has yielded low prices for the consumers throughout the 1990s. Consumption has now increased considerably, but little new production has been added. This results in high prices in dry years, but to understand this one must understand price formation in the Nordic spot market. The high prices are a powerful signal to the consumers to reduce consumption, but they are also a signal to the producers to seize any opportunity to increase production. However, the construction of new dams etc. stirs up the environmentalists. Ordinary consumers may protect themselves against high prices by signing fixed-price contracts. For those who can tolerate price fluctuations, spot prices are a better alternative than the standard contract with variable price

  9. Volume higher; spot price ranges widen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the October 1994 uranium market summary. During this reporting period, volume on the spot concentrates market doubled. Twelve deals took place: three in the spot concentrates market, one in the medium and long-term market, four in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. The restricted price range widened due to higher prices at the top end of the range, while the unrestricted price range widened because of lower prices at the bottom end. Spot conversion prices were higher, and enrichment prices were unchanged

  10. How do electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing, react on changes in the spot price?; Hvordan reagerer stroemforbruket i alminnelig forsyning paa endringer i spotpris?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holstad, Magne; Pettersen, Finn Erik L.

    2011-05-15

    The purpose of this report is to analyse how electricity consumption excluding power intensive manufacturing will react on changes in the spot price on the basis of monthly data of the period 1996-2010 and an econometric error correction model. General consumption accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total net consumption of electricity in Norway. Households, services and other manufacturing than the power intensive account for the majority of this consumption. In order to estimate the net effect of the spot price on general electricity consumption, it is important to control for other variables that also affect the consumption. Since much of the electricity in general consumption is used for heating, one obvious and important explanatory variable is temperature. In addition to electricity price and temperature we assume that general consumption also depends on economic activity, price on light heating oil, the share of working days in the current month and a summer holiday dummy. In the consumption equation price can not be considered as an exogenous explanatory variable, since consumption affects price and vice versa. Hence, we have added a price equation that can be considered as an inverted supply equation. Both the consumption and the supply equation are specified dynamically in order to allow for slow adjustment of supply and consumption. The two equations of the model are estimated by two stage least square (2SLS). Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) is the most efficient estimation method in large samples, but a crucial assumption for consistent FIML-estimation is that the disturbance terms are normally distributed. A Jarque-Bera test of the error terms does not support this assumption in our data. R2 in the consumption equation is high. 96 per cent of the variation in the relative change in consumption is explained. In the price equation R2 is considerably lower. We find that if the spot price for Norway increases by 1 percent from one month

  11. Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-responsive demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, A.S.

    2006-01-01

    Although electricity is theoretically an inelastic good in the short term, the steep slope of the supply stack implies that even modest response by demand could translate into reduced capacity requirements and significant price decreases. This article examined the effect of price-responsive demand strategies in an actual deregulated electricity industry. Auction data from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead electricity market were used to form supply stacks for various zones. A simple linear demand function was used to determine the effect of price responsiveness on equilibrium spot market price and consumption. The aim was to quantify the benefits from the pricing protocol and to determine whether modest levels of price elasticity can significantly lower prices and consumption. Market-clearing prices and quantities were estimated using various supply curves in order to quantify the responsiveness necessary to achieve given price reductions. Price response was induced in the demand curve by varying its slope. Estimates were then used to estimate the average level of slope needed to reduce the average market-clearing price during the year by a certain percentage. Results showed that an average slope of -50.04 was necessary for prices to be reduced by 25 per cent. Results also showed that necessary price responses can be ascertained for any desired reduction in the market-clearing price or quantity. Although price responsiveness unambiguously reduces the spot market price and quantity, its effect on the forward price is not yet clear. It was concluded that a separate analysis of peak hours may reveal the effectiveness of enhanced price response. 8 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs

  12. PRICING ELECTRIC POWER UNDER A HYBRID WHOLESALE MECHANISM: EVALUATING THE TURKISH ELECTRICITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatice Karahan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the restructuring process, Turkish electricity sector has gone through significant changes both in wholesale and retail markets. In this framework, the Market Financial Settlement Mechanism established for handling market imbalances has become a spot market in time. So, it can be claimed that the wholesale electricity market in Turkey is a hybrid mechanism composed of bilateral contracts and the balancing market. On the other hand, the main target of liberalization program is providing consumers with affordable electric power. Hence, this study attempts to explore the link between retail tariffs for ineligible consumers and prices in the two wholesale mechanisms, in the period after the launch of the day-ahead market. Findings suggest that regulated wholesale prices are more effective in the determination of end-user prices, whereas unregulated ones might have a price reduction effect in case the free market dominates. However, the volatility in spot market prices implies that the sector would better continue with the hybrid mechanism for quite some time.

  13. Spot Pricing When Lagrange Multipliers Are Not Unique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Donghan; Xu, Zhao; Zhong, Jin

    2012-01-01

    Classical spot pricing theory is based on multipliers of the primal problem of an optimal market dispatch, i.e., the solution of the dual problem. However, the dual problem of market dispatch may yield multiple solutions. In these circumstances, spot pricing or any standard pricing practice based...... on a strict extension of the principles of spot pricing and surplus allocation, we propose a new pricing methodology that can yield unique, impartial, and robust solution. The new method has been analyzed and compared with other pricing approaches in accordance with spot pricing theory. Case studies support...

  14. Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polikevych Nataliya I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

  15. The evolution of electricity prices in an uncertain world. Contracting and managing the price risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vassilopoulos, Ph.; Rapin, D.

    2004-01-01

    With the liberalization of the electricity market, the large industrial consumers saw their electric bill changing nature. Before, this price reflected a long term negotiation with the monopoly, now it is established in a free way via wholesale markets. This evolution marks a transfer of the management of price risk from the producer towards the consumer. This change is not in itself a problem if the hedging instruments are adapted. We note a contamination of the price of the derivative products by the spot while at the same time the traditional relation between cash and term is not always valid for electricity because of its non storability. When well even the price of the derivative products would be formed in an autonomous way, it poses a second problem: that of their indexing on price references like Platt's whose result is assimilated more to a survey of large producers than a true confrontation of supply and demand. This article proposes to examine this change of nature and behaviour of electricity prices. After having explained the intrinsically volatile characteristic of spot prices, we will recall that the products in the long term are not always optimal solutions to decrease this price risk. Lastly, we will highlight a solution of skirting at the risks mentioned above: contracting between producers and consumers. (authors)

  16. A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Ortlieb, Sebastian; Fichtner, Wolf

    2013-01-01

    Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series. - Highlights: • Wind power feed-in can be directly simulated with stochastic processes. • Non-linear relationship between wind power feed-in and electricity prices. • Price reduction effect of wind power feed-in depends on the actual load. • Considering wind power feed-in effects improves the electricity price simulation. • Combined modeling of both parameters delivers a data basis for evaluation tools

  17. Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.

    2003-01-01

    The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium mo...

  18. Impacts of subsidized renewable electricity generation on spot market prices in Germany: evidence from a Garch model with panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Thao; Lemoine, Killian

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generated by renewable energy sources creates a downward pressure on wholesale prices through - the so-called 'merit order effect'. This effect tends to lower average power prices and average market revenue that renewables producers should have received, making integration costs of renewables very high at large penetration rate. It is therefore crucial to determine the amplitude of this merit order effect particularly in the context of increasing burden of renewable support policies borne by final consumers. Using hourly data for the period 2009-2012 in German electricity wholesale market for GARCH model under panel data framework, we find that wind and solar power generation injected into German electricity network during this period induces a decrease of electricity spot prices and a slight increase of their volatility. The model-based results suggest that the merit-order effect created by renewable production ranges from 3.86 to 8.34 euro/MWh which implies to the annual volume of consumers' surplus from 1.89 to 3.92 billion euros. However this surplus has not been re-distributed equally among different types of electricity consumers. (authors)

  19. Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy; Redes neurais artificiais aplicadas na previsao de precos spot no mercado de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Alcantaro Lemes; Grimoni, Jose Aquiles Baesso [Univesidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia], emails: alcantaro@iee.usp.br, aquiles@iee.usp.br

    2010-07-01

    The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)

  20. Analysing the relationship between wholesale and end-user prices in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, P.E.; Johnsen, T.A.; Naervae, T.; Wasti, S.

    2004-09-01

    Efficient pricing in a deregulated market means prices which closely reflect the cost of obtaining electricity in the wholesale market. This research report analyses and explains the relationship between wholesale prices (especially Spot Prices) and end-user prices for residential, industrial and commercial users in the Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian electricity markets. The report primarily analyses the closeness of wholesale and end-user price patterns (the primary tracking period is 1998-2003, focusing especially closely on Finland and the period 2002-2003). The report reveals that Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish end- user prices can all be said to follow spot prices (and other wholesale prices) to a greater or lesser extent. The relationship is however complex and, especially regarding spot prices, clearly closest in Norway, followed by Sweden and then Finland. Whilst, overall, Finnish prices seem quite competitive and Nordic end-user prices currently seem to be extremely similar, there is some cause for concern in Finland. In particular, very few customers have spot based tariffs; wholesale prices (including spot prices) appear to sometimes have been used as an excuse for end-user price rises; Finnish suppliers have often been slow to respond to post-spike spot price reductions; offer prices are currently often higher than standard variable prices; and suppliers seem quite free to follow any pricing strategy, regardless of the presence of competition. Six factors are identified which influence end-user prices and their relationship with wholesale (and particularly spot) prices: hydro-dependency; concentration and entry barriers; cultural and historical determination; legislation; pricing strategies; the competitive environment. The report additionally specifically illustrates a wide variety of possible supplier strategies which might explain Finnish end-user pricing. Spot prices seem to provide only a minor explanation for Finnish end-user prices. (orig.)

  1. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  2. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weron, Rafal

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  3. Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weron, Rafal [Hugo Steinhaus Center for Stochastic Methods, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

    2008-05-15

    In this paper we propose a jump-diffusion type model which recovers the main characteristics of electricity spot price dynamics in the Nordic market, including seasonality, mean-reversion and spiky behavior. We show how the calibration of the market price of risk to actively traded futures contracts allows for efficient valuation of Nord Pool's Asian-style options written on the spot electricity price. Furthermore, we study the evolution of the market price of risk (and the risk premium) over a three year time period and compare the obtained results with those reported in the literature. (author)

  4. Do changes in natural gas futures prices influence changes in natural gas spot prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    Data on natural gas futures and spot markets are examined to determine if variability in price on futures markets influences variability in price on spot markets. Using econometric techniques, it is found that changes in futures contract prices do not precede changes in spot market prices. (Author)

  5. Short run pricing in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ring, B. J.; Read, E. G.

    1996-01-01

    In response to the need for more responsive, competitive and decentralized pricing strategies forced upon the industry by deregulation, this study reviewed the type of electricity pricing required to coordinate a competitive wholesale electricity market over time periods typically of the order of one hour. It was found that nodal spot pricing can provide a straight-forward mechanism for providing the correct signals to market participants, while reflecting the costs and complexities of transmission network operation. Provided that all binding constraints are represented in the pricing model, and assuming that they are used in conjunction with long term contracts and capacity rights, such pricing can potentially deliver most of the benefits promised by perfect coordination, while allowing competition to flourish. 4 refs

  6. The Effect of Wind Power on Electricity Prices in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsson, Tryggvi; Madsen, Henrik

    This report is the result of a special course taken by the author at IMM DTU under the guidance of professor Henrik Madsen. The aim of the project is to analyze the influence wind energy has on the electricity spot price in Western Denmark and investigate how information about wind power production...... can be used to model the electricity spot price. Various model types were tried, giving very different performance. Here, only the models that performed best are discussed in order to keep focus on the projects goal....

  7. Crude oil spot market pricing: Pearsonian analysis of crude oil spot market prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akinnusi, Ayo

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief overview of crude oil pricing before describing a study of sets of 1991 spot market prices, and examining Pearson's model. Empirical distribution characteristics for 14 crude oils are tabulated, and skewness-kurtosis relationship and implication are considered. (UK)

  8. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  9. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilleberg, J.; Laitinen, E.K.

    1998-01-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers' right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  10. Electricity spot price forecasting in free power market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lilleberg, J; Laitinen, E K [Vaasa Univ. (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    Deregulation has brought many changes to the electricity market. Freedom of choice has been granted to both the consumers and the utilities. Consumers may choose the seller of their energy. Utilities have a wider array of sources to acquire their electricity from. Also the types of sales contracts used are changing to fill the needs of this new situation. The consumers` right to choose has introduced a new risk uncertainty of volume, which was not true during the times of monopoly. As sold volume is unsure and the energy is not sold on same terms as it is bought, a price risk has to be dealt with also. The electric utility has to realize this, select a risk level that suits its business strategy and optimize its actions according to the selected risk level. The number of participants will grow as the electricity market integrates into a common market for Scandinavia and even Europe. Big customers are also taking a more active role in the market, further increasing the number of participants. This makes old bilateral arrangements outdated. New tools are needed to control the new business environment. The goal of this project has been to develop a theoretical model to predict the price in the Finnish electricity exchange, El-Ex Oy. An extensive literature review was conducted in order to (1) examine the solutions in deregulation of electricity markets in other countries, esp. in Norway and UK, (2) find similarities and differences in electricity exchange and exchanges generally and (3) find major sources of problems and inefficiency in the market

  11. Electricity prices and power derivatives: An affine jump diffusion approach with seasonal volatility and prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos; Soldatos, Orestes; Tamvakis, Michael

    2005-01-01

    Deregulation and reforms in the electricity markets over the recent years have led to increasing volatility of electricity prices since prices in the market are now determined by the fundamental rules of supply and demand. The existence of price risk in the market leads to the increasing necessity of hedging using derivatives and the subsequent development of models to price and hedge electricity derivatives. However the non-storable nature of the market implies that ''traditional'' approaches for the pricing and hedging of commodity derivatives based on the theory of storage are not applicable to electricity markets. In this paper we propose a two-factor jump diffusion model with seasonal components in order to capture the systematic pattern in the forward curve and the volatility term structure. Our model is then calibrated for the spot and the financial contracts in the Nord Pool Exchange using Kalman filter techniques. The proposed model has several advantages. First it enables to select the risk neutral measure that best fits the term structure hence capturing the most significant distributional characteristics of both spot and forwards. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium, and finally it provides a fit for the Volatility Term Structure. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful Financial Engineering tool to market participants for Risk Hedging and Derivatives Pricing in the highly volatile Power Markets. (Author)

  12. Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

    2013-06-15

    Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

  13. Spatial dependencies of wind power and interrelations with spot price dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elberg, Christina; Hagspiel, Simeon

    2013-01-01

    Wind power has seen a strong growth over the last decade. Due to its high intermittency, spot prices have become more volatile and exhibit correlated behavior with wind power fed into the system. In this paper, we develop a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the spatial dependencies of wind power and its interrelations with spot prices: We employ a structural supply and demand based model for the electricity spot price that takes into account stochastic production quantities of wind power. Spatial dependencies are modeled with the help of copulas, thus linking the single turbine wind power to the aggregated wind power in a market. The model is applied to the German electricity market where wind power already today makes up a significant share of total power production. Revenue distributions and the market value of different wind power plants are analyzed. We find that the specific location of the considered wind turbine, i.e. its spatial dependency with respect to the aggregated wind power in the system, is of high relevance for its market value. Many of the analyzed locations show an upper tail dependence that adversely impacts the market value. This effect becomes more important for increasing levels of wind power penetration.

  14. Forecasting day ahead electricity spot prices: The impact of the EXAA to other European electricity markets

    OpenAIRE

    Ziel, Florian; Steinert, Rick; Husmann, Sven

    2015-01-01

    In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market we employ econometric models to incorporate the EXAA price and compare them with their counterparts without the price of the Austrian exchange. By employing a forecasting study...

  15. The Renewables Influence on Market Splitting: the Iberian Spot Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Nuno Carvalho Figueiredo; Patrícia Pereira da Silva; Pedro Cerqueira

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to assess the influence of wind power generation on the market splitting behaviour of the Iberian electricity spot markets. We use logit models to express the probability response for market splitting of day-ahead spot electricity prices together with explanatory variables like, wind speed, available transmission capacity and electricity demand. The results show that the probability of market splitting increases with the increase of wind power generation. The European intercon...

  16. Volume dips; spot price ranges narrow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This article is the September 1994 uranium market summary. Volume in the spot concentrates market fell below 1 million lbs U3O8. In total, twelve deals took place compared to 28 deals in August. Of the twelve deals, three took place in the spot concentrates market, two took place in the medium and long-term market, three in the conversion market, and four in the enrichment market. Restricted prices weakened, but unrestricted prices firmed slightly. The enrichment price range narrowed a bit

  17. Synthetic river flow time series generator for dispatch and spot price forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flores, R.A.

    2007-01-01

    Decision-making in electricity markets is complicated by uncertainties in demand growth, power supplies and fuel prices. In Peru, where the electrical power system is highly dependent on water resources at dams and river flows, hydrological uncertainties play a primary role in planning, price and dispatch forecast. This paper proposed a signal processing method for generating new synthetic river flow time series as a support for planning and spot market price forecasting. River flow time series are natural phenomena representing a continuous-time domain process. As an alternative synthetic representation of the original river flow time series, this proposed signal processing method preserves correlations, basic statistics and seasonality. It takes into account deterministic, periodic and non periodic components such as those due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The new synthetic time series has many correlations with the original river flow time series, rendering it suitable for possible replacement of the classical method of sorting historical river flow time series. As a dispatch and planning approach to spot pricing, the proposed method offers higher accuracy modeling by decomposing the signal into deterministic, periodic, non periodic and stochastic sub signals. 4 refs., 4 tabs., 13 figs

  18. Effects of regulatory reforms in the electricity supply industry on electricity prices in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagayama, Hiroaki

    2007-01-01

    Electric power sector reforms in the electricity supply industry have had an impact on industrial and household prices in developing countries in Latin America, the former Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Using original panel data for 83 countries during the period from 1985 to 2002, we examine how each policy instrument of the reform measures influenced electricity prices for countries in the above regions. We found that variables such as entry of independent power producers (IPP), unbundling of generation and transmission, establishment of a regulatory agency, and the introduction of a wholesale spot market have had a variety of impacts on electricity prices, some of which were not always consistent with expected results. The research findings suggest that neither unbundling nor introduction of a wholesale pool market on their own necessarily reduces the electric power price. In fact, contrary to expectations, there was a tendency for the price to rise. However, coexistent with an independent regulator, unbundling may work to reduce electricity prices. Privatization and the introduction of foreign IPP and retail competition lower electricity prices in some regions, but not all

  19. Application of auctions as a pricing mechanism for the interchange of electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Post, D.L.; Coppinger, S.S.; Sheble, G.B.

    1995-01-01

    The expected move to a market-based electric power industry will significantly change electric utility operations. These changes will fundamentally alter the pricing of electric power. How this pricing will be accomplished is a key issue. Traditionally, embedded cost based methods have been used. Recently, spot-pricing has received attention as a possible approach in a market-based electric power environment. Another market-based approach is the use of auctions. This paper will present the application of a sequential sealed-bid and sealed-offer auction to the pricing of electric power by using linear programming

  20. The role of price elastic demand in market power in the Nordic electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravn, H.F.

    2004-01-01

    The paper discusses the modelling and analysis of market power and price elastic demand in the Nordic electricity spot market, Nordpool. The modelling of market power in the electricity sector must take into account a number of features that are specific to the electricity sector. First, electricity cannot be stored, but must be produced simultaneously with consumption. This aspect is, however, modified by the possibility of using hydro reservoirs as an indirect electricity storage. Second, the electricity transmission network plays an important role by breaking the market into several geographically separate sub-markets with different prices. Moreover, the specific bottlenecks may differ from hour to hour, according to the balance between supply and demand in each sub-market. Third, the demand side is presently characterised by very limited experience with hour to-hour-changes in electricity prices and very limited experience with short time adjustments of electricity consumption in response to changes in the electricity price. In the present paper three basic models for supply side competition on the Nordpool spot market will be presented, viz., perfect competition, Cournot competition and Supply Function Equilibrium. The models represent price and quantity settlement, including determination of price areas (bottle necks), in accordance with the way the Nordpool market functions. The models will incorporate electricity demand which is responsive to the electricity price. The paper describes the role of demand response for the determination of the electricity prices in each of the three supply side competition models. (au)

  1. Inefficient and opaque price formation in the Japan Electric Power Exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Tadahiro

    2013-01-01

    This study examines whether the spot prices in the Japan Electric Power Exchange are efficiently formed from April 3, 2006, to March 31, 2012, using the conventional and rank-based variance-ratio tests. The results seem to reject the efficient market hypothesis in the market. Moreover, by applying Granger-causality tests, this paper investigates whether the power price is determined from the information of primary energy and exchange markets that directly affect the cost of power generation. The results indicate no Granger-causality from the prices of oil and gas and the exchange rate to the price of electricity. Finally, this paper discusses the factors that lead to inefficient and mysterious price formation. - Highlights: ► This study examines the wholesale electricity market in Japan. ► Efficient market hypothesis is rejected. ► Prices of imported fuel do not Granger-cause the prices of electricity. ► The WTI prices and the exchange rates do not Granger-cause the power prices

  2. Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Jensen, Thomas Elgaard; Mølgaard, Rune

    We examine the forward market for electricity for indications of misuse of market power, using a unique data set on OTC price indications posted by Elsam A/S, the dominant producer in Western Denmark, which is one of the price areas under the Nordic power exchange Nord Pool. The Danish Competition...... Council (the regulatory government agency) has ruled that Elsam has used its dominant position to obtain excessive spot prices over a period from July 2003 through December 2006. We show that significant forward premia exist, and that they are related both to spot market volatility and misuse of market...... are consistent across forward premium regressions and structural forward pricing models....

  3. Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, M. Pilar; Dickey, David A.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

  4. Anti-correlation and multifractal features of Spain electricity spot market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norouzzadeh, Payam; Dullaert, W.; Rahmani, Bahareh

    2007-01-01

    We use multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to numerically investigate correlation, persistence, multifractal properties and scaling behavior of the hourly spot prices for the Spain electricity exchange-Compania O Peradora del Mercado de Electricidad (OMEL). Through multifractal

  5. Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines the inter-relationships of wholesale spot electricity prices among the four regional electricity markets in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM): namely, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria using the constant conditional correlation and Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) and Engle's (Engle, R., 2002. Dynamic conditional correlation: a sample class of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 339-350.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH models. Tse and Tsui's (Tse, Y.K., Tsui, A.K.C., 2002. A multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20 (3), 351-362.) dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model which takes account of the Student t specification produces the best results. At the univariate GARCH(1,1) level, the mean equations indicate the presence of positive own mean spillovers in all four markets and little evidence of mean spillovers from the other lagged markets. In the dynamic conditional correlation equation, the highest conditional correlations are evident between the well-connected markets indicating the presence of strong interdependence between these markets with weaker interdependence between the not so well-interconnected markets. (author)

  6. A new index for electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Falbo, Paolo; Fattore, Marco; Stefani, Silvana

    2010-01-01

    Different indexes are used in electricity markets worldwide to represent the daily behavior of spot prices. However, the peculiarities of these markets require a careful choice of the index, based on mathematical formulation and its statistical properties. Choosing a bad index may influence the financial policies of market players, since derivative pricing and hedging performance can be deeply affected. In this paper with an initial theoretical analysis, we intend to show that the most widely used indexes (simple arithmetic average and weighted average with current volumes) are poor representatives of the spot market. We will then perform an analysis of the hedging strategy on a derivative instrument (an Asian option) written on a reference index. The resulting simulations, applied to OMEL (Spain) and EEX (Germany), are sufficiently clear cut to suggest that the decision to adopt an index to represent properly a market must be taken very carefully. Finally we will propose a new index (FAST index) and, after comparing it with the previous indexes, will show that both theoretically and practically this index can be taken as a good electricity market synthetic indicator.

  7. EXPLANATORY MODEL OF SPOT PRICE OF IRON ORE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Enrique Villalva A.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to construct an explanatory model of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. For this, the method of multiple linear regressions was used. As a dependent variable, the spot price of iron ore (62% Fe China Tianjin port was taken, between 2010 and 2013. As independents variables were taken seven variables of international iron ore market. The resulting model includes variables: Iron ore inventory in Chinese ports, Baltic Dry Index (BDI, Iron ore exports from Brazil & Australia and Chinese Rebar Steel Price, as explanatory variables of the behavior of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. The model has an adjusted coefficient of determination R2 of 0.90, and was validated by comparing its predictions vs. known values of 2014.

  8. Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

    This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...... they are able to capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. Furthermore, we derive forward prices based on our spot price model. As it turns out, many of the classical spot models can be embedded into our novel modelling framework....

  9. The relation of monthly spot to futures prices for natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    The relationship between the spot price for natural gas for a delivery month and the futures contract price for the same delivery month is examined. The estimated regression equation provides a good summary of the relationship between spot and futures prices for the time period and can also be used to obtain accurate forecasts of spot prices. It appears that the natural gas futures market is inefficient. (author)

  10. Market prices for solar electricity in Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2006-01-01

    The Ontario electricity supply is facing considerable challenges while demand is increasing due to a growing population and increased economic growth needs. In response to these challenges, the government of Ontario established the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) in 2004 to ensure adequate, reliable and secure electricity supply and resources in Ontario. The OPA has also engaged in activities to facilitate the diversification of sources of electricity supply by promoting the use of cleaner energy sources and technologies, including alternative energy sources and renewable energy. The purpose of this paper was to advance discussions regarding the contribution that solar PV can make to Ontario's supply mix. In particular, it determined the value of the electricity that would have been produced by a PV system located in Waterloo, Ontario under the following 4 pricing regimes: (1) the conventional small user tariff system currently in place in Ontario, (2) the time-of-use pricing system that is voluntarily available to those who have smart meters installed in their facilities, (3) the spot market, hourly prices, to which some of Ontario's largest electricity users are exposed, and (4) the recently-proposed rate for standard offer contracts for PV systems. The study showed that a solar PV system that produces 3,000 kWh of electricity over the course of a year would generate different revenue amounts, ranging from the smallest amount of approximately $174.00 to $1,260.00, depending on the pricing regime. The pricing regime that reflects real, time-of-day electricity prices appears to be most advantageous to solar PV systems. It was recommended that additional work is needed regarding the other benefits of solar PV, such as avoided capacity/generation needs, avoided transmission and distribution cost and losses, environmental benefits, and job creation. 3 refs., 4 tabs., 8 figs

  11. Value assessment of hydrogen-based electrical energy storage in view of electricity spot market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Hu, Junjie; Zong, Yi

    2016-01-01

    electricity spot market that has high price volatility due to its high share of wind power. An economic dispatch model is developed as a mixed-integer programming (MIP) problem to support the estimation of variable cost of such a system taking into account a good granularity of the technical details. Based...

  12. THE CAUSALITY TEST BETWEEN THE VARIANCES OF SPOT AND FUTURE MARKET PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EMRAH İSMAİL ÇEVİK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Volatility in financial markets urges importance of risk management with respect to investors and especially firms. Information and interaction between spot and futures markets plays an important role on formation of market prices. In this study, causality and information flows are examined on spot and futures prices of ISE 100 Index, US Dollar, and Euro which are traded at Turkish Derivatives Exchange (VOB. Dynamic causality test that is originally created by Cheung and Ng (1996 is applied. Dynamic causality test results show that in the ISE 100 Index model spot prices affect futures prices and in the exchange model futures prices affect spot prices.

  13. Spot market activity remains weak as prices continue to fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in November 1996 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers. Spot market activity increased in November with just over 1.0 million lbs of U3O8 equivalent being transacted compared to October's total of 530,000 lbs of U3O8 equivalent. The restricted uranium spot market price range slipped from $15.50-$15.70/lb U3O8 last month to $14.85/lb - $15.25/lb U3O8 this month. The unrestricted uranium spot market price range also slipped to $14.85/lb - $15.00/lb this month from $15.00/lb - $15.45/lb in October. Spot prices for conversion and separative work units remained at their October levels

  14. Water: The Only Factor Influencing the Price of Energy in the Spot Market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Mothé Maia

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian electric energy generation system is based on its hydroelectric power plants, making the country dependent on proper rainfall and, thus, raising the possibility of energy stress situations, such as the energy-rationing scenario observed in the beginning of the century and the latest water crisis (2014. Moments of water scarcity are followed by an increase in energy prices, which affects the economy as whole. Therefore, it is relevant to understand which factors in the Brazilian Electric System affect the energy price and the individual importance of each. This paper aimed to analyze which the key variables influencing the energy price in the spot market are by using official data from the National Electric System Operator. The used data was from the period July/2001 to July/2014, which was employed in a multiple regression methodology along with time series. The results suggest an inverse relationship between the natural flow of rivers (directly related to rainfall and the energy price. Moreover, they also point to an inverse relationship between the potential energy stored in reservoirs as water and the energy price.

  15. Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, E.D.

    1984-01-01

    Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

  16. The compass rose pattern in electricity prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A; Hamada, Mahmoud

    2009-12-01

    The "compass rose pattern" is known to appear in the phase portraits, or scatter diagrams, of the high-frequency returns of financial series. We first show that this pattern is also present in the returns of spot electricity prices. Early researchers investigating these phenomena hoped that these patterns signaled the presence of rich dynamics, possibly chaotic or fractal in nature. Although there is a definite autoregressive and conditional heteroscedasticity structure in electricity returns, we find that after simple filtering no pattern remains. While the series is non-normal in terms of their distribution and statistical tests fail to identify significant chaos, there is evidence of fractal structures in periodic price returns when measured over the trading day. The phase diagram of the filtered returns provides a useful visual check on independence, a property necessary for pricing and trading derivatives and portfolio construction, as well as providing useful insights into the market dynamics.

  17. The spot market and the spot price: applicability and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, G. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The subject of spot prices and their relationship to long-term contracting is addressed. The author is associated with Nuexco, which originally was called the Nuclear Exchange Corporation. They use the term Exchange Value which originated in the idea that Nuexco operated an exchange 'bank' - those with too much uranium could 'bank it', those with short-term needs could borrow from the 'bank'. If the borrower repaid slightly more or less the difference was settled using the 'exchange value'. This became used for longer-term transactions and now settling the monthly value is an important part of Nuexco's activities. The exact nature of the Exchange Value is defined. Now more and more buyers are insisting on spot market related pricing even where this is not meaningfully related to uranium production costs. (U.K.)

  18. Some models for electric power price clearing in liberalized market area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chogelja, Goran; Pavlov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents some of the basic models for electrical energy price clearing in liberalized market area and competition on level of consumption and level of production. As an example the Amsterdam power exchange APX (spot market) is given and some of another types of markets and methodology for pricing are presented. In detal 'clearing pricing mechanism in day athead market' from the Amsterdam power exchange is presented as well as the methodology for market balancing and financial clearing. (Original)

  19. ELMO model predicts the price of electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antila, H.

    2001-01-01

    Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons

  20. Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Ofir David

    precision is still low. Therefore, it is crucial that the uncertainty in forecasting wind power is considered when modeling trading behavior. Our theoretical framework is based on finding a symmetric Cournot-Nash equilibrium in double-sided auctions in both forwards and spot electricity markets. The theoretical framework allows for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, a model of electricity markets that explain two main empirical findings; the existence of forwards premium and spot market mark-ups. That is a significant contribution since so far forward premiums have been explained exclusively by the assumption of risk-averse behavior while spot mark-ups are the outcome of the body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. In the next step, we extend the theoretical framework to account for deregulated electricity markets with wind power. Modeling a wind-integrated electricity market allows us to analyze market outcomes with respect to three main factors; the introduction of uncertainty from the supply side, ownership of wind power capacity and the geographical diversification of wind power capacity. For the purpose of modeling trade in electricity forwards one should simulate the information agents have regarding future availability of aggregate wind power. This is particularly important for modeling accurately traders' ability to predict the spot price distribution. We develop a novel numerical methodology for the simulation of the conditional distribution of regional wind power at the time of trading short-term electricity forwards. Finally, we put the theoretical framework and the numerical methodology developed in this study to work by providing a detailed computational experiment examining electricity market outcomes for a particular expansion path of wind power capacity.

  1. The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

    2018-01-01

    The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

  2. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  3. Interactions between the German Electricity Spot Market and the Reserve Energy Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graeber, Bernhardt

    2005-01-01

    Eight years after market opening, Germany has well established spot and future markets for electricity. Besides OTC and Internet broker platforms the main market place is the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig (EEX) with its spot and future market. Less known is the reserve energy market in Germany. The four German transmission system operators (TSOs) EnBW, EON, RWE and Vattenfall purchase network services on the reserve energy market. Products with specific technical requirements are primary, secondary and tertiary reserve. (Details about the technical requirements and typical means for providing the required services will be presented.) Each TSO organises a separate auction for these products - for primary and secondary reserve half-yearly, for tertiary reserve daily. Due to the technical requirements the liquidity on these markets is limited, but especially on the tertiary reserve market it is recently growing significantly due to new participants marketing several smaller municipal and industrial reserve power plants as combined bids which meet the 30 MW min. capacity requirement. Every power plant or interruptible load could not only be offered as capacity on the reserve market but could also be dispatched for the spot market. Therefore the developments of prices on these markets are not independent and opportunity costs against the spot market can be estimated for different type of plants bidding in the reserve market. Another interaction between reserve and spot market is caused by the balancing price system in Germany. Prices for balancing energy meeting deviations between load, trading balance and production of a market participant are based on quarter-hourly reserve energy costs encountered by the TSO. As unbiased load and production forecasts are not strictly enforced by the TSOs so far, part of the planned demand could be met with balancing energy if EEX spot market prices rise above expected balancing energy prices. This interrelationship has a

  4. Lead lag relationships between futures and spot prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asche, Frank; Guttormsen, Atle G

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we examine the relationship between spot and futures prices. This is traditionally done by testing for cointegration with the Engle and Granger methodology, before one specifies an error correction models in order to draw inference about causality. This approach, although appealing for its simplicity, is problematic on at least two accounts. First, the approach is only valid given an exogeneity assumption, which is what one wants to test, and second, given that there are several contracts with different times to expiration, bivariate specifications cannot capture all the relevant information. We show that both problems can be avoided if the tests are carried out in a multivariate framework like the Johansen test. An empirical application is carried out on futures prices for gas oil. Findings indicate that futures prices leads spot prices, and that futures contracts with longer time to expiration leads contracts with shorter time to expiration. (author)

  5. Renewable energies and their effect on electricity prices: the case of the German nuclear phase-out

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Comtesse, Daniel; Schroeer, Sebastian

    2010-07-01

    The aim of this article is to analyze the price effects of the market integration of renewable energies. Previous related studies describe a so-called 'merit order-effect', implying that decreasing electricity prices are caused by an increasing share of renewable energies. However, this is a static effect resulting from the assumption that the existing power plant fleet remains constant. Our contribution is to analyze the long-run price effect of the substitution of renewable energies for existing technologies like nuclear power, coal or gas. This aspect is relevant, since more and more countries increase the share of renewable energies in order to substitute fossil or nuclear power plants. Higher market shares of renewable energies are caused both by their increasing competitiveness and by political actions such as national targets or promotion schemes. Background and Stylized facts Since renewable energies usually have a lower marginal price of electricity generation - which determines the electricity prices at spot markets - their addition to an established power plant fleet consisting of nuclear, coal, lignite and gas power plants leads to lower electricity prices. However, the long-run price effect when fossil or nuclear power plants are substituted remains ambiguous. This is due to the fact that, if compared to fossil and nuclear fuels, renewable energies are characterized by three specific features: firstly, they lack the ability to secure base load. Secondly, they produce energy which is extremely volatile. Thirdly, their marginal costs of production are close to zero. These characteristics are caused by the high dependency of renewable energies on weather conditions. As electricity generation and consumption must happen simultaneously (electricity storage does not pay off yet), power plants with low base load capacity need back-up capacities. Given the actual technological state of the art, these back-up capacities must be fossil or nuclear power

  6. A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Michael; Powell, Warren B.; Sircar, Ronnie

    2013-01-01

    Energy companies with commitments to meet customers' daily electricity demands face the problem of hedging load and price risk. We propose a joint model for load and price dynamics, which is motivated by the goal of facilitating optimal hedging decisions, while also intuitively capturing the key features of the electricity market. Driven by three stochastic factors including the load process, our power price model allows for the calculation of closed-form pricing formulas for forwards and some options, products often used for hedging purposes. Making use of these results, we illustrate in a simple example the hedging benefit of these instruments, while also evaluating the performance of the model when fitted to the Texas electricity market. - Highlights: • We present a structural model for electricity spot prices in the ERCOT market. • Relationships between power price and factors such as load and gas price are studied. • Seasonal patterns and load-dependent spikes are shown to be well captured. • Closed-form results for prices of forwards, options and spread options are derived. • We demonstrate the effectiveness of hedging power demand with forwards and options

  7. Practical operation strategies for pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) utilising electricity price arbitrage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Connolly, David; Lund, Henrik; Finn, P.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, three practical operation strategies (24Optimal, 24Prognostic, and 24Hsitrocial) are compared to the optimum profit feasible for a PHES facility with a 360 MW pump, 300 MW turbine, and a 2 GWh storage utilising price arbitrage on 13 electricity spot markets. The results indicate...... that almost all (not, vert, similar97%) of the profits can be obtained by a PHES facility when it is optimised using the 24Optimal strategy developed, which optimises the energy storage based on the day-ahead electricity prices. However, to maximise profits with the 24Optimal strategy, the day......-ahead electricity prices must be the actual prices which the PHES facility is charged or the PHES operator must have very accurate price predictions. Otherwise, the predicted profit could be significantly reduced and even become a loss. Finally, using the 24Optimal strategy, the PHES profit can surpass the annual...

  8. Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices : Utilizing Hourly Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Raviv (Eran); K.E. Bouwman (Kees); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual

  9. Measuring competitiveness of the EPEX spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graf, Christoph; Wozabal, David

    2013-01-01

    The issue of market concentration in electricity markets and resulting possible anti-competitive behavior of producers is a much discussed topic in many countries. We investigate the day-ahead market for electricity at the EPEX, the largest central European market for electricity. To analyze whether generating companies use their market power to influence prices, we use a conjectural variations approach as well as a direct approach to construct marginal costs of electricity production. Given the available data, we cannot reject the hypothesis that there was no systematic abuse of market power by the suppliers of electricity on the EPEX day-ahead spot market for the years 2007–2010. These results are essentially robust when restricting the sample to high load hours, which are generally considered to be the most prone to market manipulation. -- Highlights: •We investigate the efficiency of the German spot market for electricity. •We employ a conjectural variations approach and a fundamental market model. •Peak load hours and base load hours are analyzed separately. •We find that the market was competitive from 2007 to 2010 for both base and peak hours. •Policies to promote market transparency in Germany can be regarded as successful

  10. The 1996 uranium spot market: Low volume, prices spiral upward then downward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the 1996 uranium spot market is provided. The market was characterized by an overall decrease in uranium demand coupled with dramatically rising prices from January to July. Prices declined steadily during the second half of the year. Factors affecting price fall and historical spot market data are presented

  11. Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herguera, Inigo

    2000-01-01

    The performance of the futures and the spot market for electricity in England and Wales (EW) and in the Nordic countries have significant differences in terms of volumes traded and evolution of prices. Even though the institutional arrangements show significant differences and the data collected has important limitations we observe in EW for 1990-199 that as the coverage via bilateral contracts diminished, spot prices tended to increase, there was higher price volatility and an increasing number of plants were declared unavailable. In the NordPool, by contrast, market structure is more distributed, the bilateral contract price has tended to smooth the volatility in the spot price and a very diverse pattern behavior of prices has been observed. We interpret these observations as additional support in favor of the theoretical result by and Vila (Journal of Economic Theory 59 (1993) 1), but hint at the possibility of strategies by the firms that can diminish the welfare enhancing properties of this new bilateral market. (Author)

  12. Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalid Nainar, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

  13. Real-time electricity pricing in a deregulated environment using artificial intelligence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dondo, M.G.

    1998-12-31

    The challenge of implementing real-time pricing of electricity was discussed. Several electric utilities want to incorporate real-time pricing into their rate policies. Conventional programming methods are not fast enough to process and distribute information in real time. Therefore, a new method that would match the current advances in communication speeds is needed. Also, conventional programming methods do not incorporate the uncertainties that are inherent in the lives of humans. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate this fuzziness into the model. This study showed that the elements of speed and uncertainties can be readily incorporated into the determination of spot-pricing based electricity rates. A unique computational intelligence model was designed which consists of a feedforward neural network based on back-propagation training and a fuzzy logic model. The work has been demonstrated on the IEEE test systems and the Nova Scotia Power Corporation`s system.

  14. Use of Local Dynamic Electricity Prices for Indirect Control of DER Power Units

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgård, Per Bromand; Isleifsson, Fridrik Rafn

    2013-01-01

    the grid voltage. The algorithms generating the local prices are dynamically adjusted according to the actual realised responses to the dynamic prices. Results are presented from an adapted version of the control principle implemented and tested in DTUs experimental research power system, SYSLAB, including...... wind power, solar power, flexible load and electrical storage. The local power price generation is based on the actual Nord Pool DK2 Spot prices on hourly basis as the quasi-stationary global electricity price, and the local SYSLAB's power exchange with the national grid as basis for the dynamic price...... system. A challenge is to find a cheap, simple and robust way to requests the proper power regulation by the DER power units. The use of broadcasted, dynamic power prices and volunteer responses is one option. The paper presents a proposal for and an illustration of advanced generation of local, dynamic...

  15. The market value and impact of offshore wind on the electricity spot market: Evidence from Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ederer, Nikolaus

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Market value of offshore wind based on feed-in and weather data is assessed. • Merit order effect caused by wind energy is simulated for 2006–2014. • Results indicate same impact of on- and offshore wind on market price and value. • Steadier wind resource offshore imposes less variability on market price. • Characteristic of variable wind feed-in cannot be blamed for price deterioration. - Abstract: Although the expansion of offshore wind has recently increased in Germany, as in other countries, it is still forced to defend its role in long-term energy policy plans, particularly against its onshore counterpart, to secure future expansion targets and financial support. The objective of this article is to investigate the economic effects of offshore wind on the electricity spot market and thus open up another perspective that has not been part of the debate about offshore vs. onshore wind thus far. A comprehensive assessment based on a large amount of market, feed-in and weather data in Germany revealed that the market value of offshore wind is generally higher than that of onshore wind. Simulating the merit order effect on the German day-ahead electricity market for the short term and long term in the years 2006–2014 aimed to identify the reason for this observation and show whether it is also an indication of a lower impact on the electricity spot market due to a steadier wind resource prevailing offshore. Although the results suggest no difference regarding the impact on market price and value, they indeed reveal that offshore wind imposes less variability on the spot market price than onshore wind. In addition, the long-term simulation proved that the ongoing price deterioration cannot be blamed on the characteristic of variable wind production

  16. Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Raviv, Eran; Bouwman, Kees E.; van Dijk, Dick

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper led to a publication in 'Energy Economics' , 2015, 50, 227-239. The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This paper demonstrates that the disaggregated hourly prices contain useful predictive information for the daily average ...

  17. Forecasting electricity market pricing using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pao, Hsiao-Tien

    2007-01-01

    Electricity price forecasting is extremely important for all market players, in particular for generating companies: in the short term, they must set up bids for the spot market; in the medium term, they have to define contract policies; and in the long term, they must define their expansion plans. For forecasting long-term electricity market pricing, in order to avoid excessive round-off and prediction errors, this paper proposes a new artificial neural network (ANN) with single output node structure by using direct forecasting approach. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing a rolling cross validation scheme. Out of sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are a more robust multi-step ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models. Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of the forecast horizon is relatively short or long

  18. Electricity structure and the impact on pricing, trade and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pineau, P.O.

    2007-01-01

    The feasibility of integrating different electricity markets was discussed along with the benefits that can be derived. It was noted that some important differences in Canadian electricity markets create distortions that are harmful both economically and environmentally. Indirect subsidies provided to electricity consumers in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec result in inefficient consumption levels and in missed opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The structure of the Canadian electricity sector is characterized by public ownership and decentralization at the provincial level. The impact that this structure has on pricing policies, independent planning and environmental strategies was discussed. Alberta and Ontario have an hourly spot market fixing the market price for electricity, but all the other provinces use a pricing policy based on average cost, including a return on investment. This article also addressed the issue of electric generating units (EGUs) within each province and and their role in meeting provincial electricity demands. It was shown that electricity prices do not reflect the value of the resource across Canada. It was cautioned that subsidies create low electricity prices that result in inefficient consumption levels, thereby preventing clean hydropower to be exported to market-based provinces as a substitute to diesel, natural gas or coal-fuelled EGUs. An estimate of the indirect subsidies was presented in this article along with an analysis of possible consumption reduction scenarios if market prices were used. Carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions reductions that could be obtained if the saved energy was entirely exported were also estimated. Transmission issues involved in exporting electricity were also reviewed. It was argued that once strong financial incentives are in place to induce change, then economic and environmental gains will be proven. 9 tabs., 3 figs

  19. Analyzing power pools and understanding the spot market based approach to electricity trading

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goulding, D. [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1997-12-31

    Highlights of the evolution of the electricity industry from franchised monopoly to commoditized markets were presented. Trends in commoditized markets include increased competition, a decline in profit margins and increases in price volatility. Examples of highly regulated industries that have commoditized include long distance telephone, airline and the trucking industries. Models of possible market structures for electricity were reviewed, among them: (1) mandatory one-sided spot market, (2) mandatory spot market, less central control, (3) optional two-sided spot market, and (4) physical bilateral based market. Management of the marketplace regardless of the model used, must assure system security and system reliability and meet real-time demand on the system. Possible roles for the Independent System Operator were discussed. The principal role was predicted to be the operation of an electronic exchange for forward contracts, operation of the spot market, and acting as a clearinghouse for buyers and sellers of forward contracts. 1 tab., 4 figs.

  20. Spot volume exceeds 2 million lbs (again); restricted price hits $10/lb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    This article is the January 1995 uranium market summary. Volume on the spot concentrates market exceeded 2 million lbs equivalent for the second consecutive month. Six deals took place; four in the spot concentrates market, one in the conversion market, and one in the enrichment market. No deals took place in the medium or long-term market. The upper end of the restricted price range reached $10.00 per lb U3O8, its highest level since December 1993. The lower end of the restricted price range strengthened to $9.75. The lower end of the spot conversion price range strengthed to $5.70 per kg U, and SWU prices firmed to the $75.00 to $87.00 level

  1. Pricing electricity for sustainability : climate change and Canada's electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The electricity sector is Canada's largest single source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper discussed electricity and carbon pricing approaches to reducing GHG emissions in the electricity sector. An overview of the links between electricity pricing and climate change was presented, and current and emerging trends in electricity pricing related to encouraging energy conservation were reviewed. Market prices and failures were discussed. Approaches to pricing electricity included an increase in block prices; time-of-use prices; demand-side management and energy efficiency; and carbon pricing in Canada and electricity pricing signals. The study showed that several provincial utilities in Canada are experimenting with market-based pricing approaches for electricity and carbon that may help to reduce GHG emissions over time. Concerns over electricity supply and the negative environmental impacts of electricity production may lead to the full social pricing of electricity in some regions of Canada. 46 refs., 3 tabs., 5 figs.

  2. Feed-in tariff and market electricity price comparison. The case of cogeneration units in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uran, Vedran; Krajcar, Slavko

    2009-01-01

    In August 2007, the Government of the Republic of Croatia instituted a feed-in tariff system, requiring the Croatian Electricity Market Operator (HROTE) to off-take the electricity produced from renewable energy sources or cogeneration units fueled by natural gas. Analysis of the off-take electricity price range, which depends on the net electrical output and electricity market trends, indicates that it is more cost effective for cogeneration units greater than 1 MW to sell their electricity on the exchange market. This was confirmed by developing a mathematical model to calculate the cost-effectiveness ratio of a cogeneration unit. This ratio represents the relation between the profit spread, i.e. the difference between the profit generated from selling the electricity on the exchange market and the profit made from dispatching the electricity to HROTE, as well as the total investment costs. The model can be applied for changes in certain parameters, such as the net electrical output, volatility and spot electricity price. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the most probable cost-effectiveness ratio and average future electricity price. Together with these two economic parameters and market price analysis, it is possible to calculate and calibrate an acceptable off-take electricity price. (author)

  3. Impact of optimal load response to real-time electricity price on power system constraints in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2010-01-01

    Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the price could be transferred to the consumers and they may shift their loads from high price periods to the low price periods in order to save their energy costs. The optimal load response to a real-time electricity price...... and may represent the future of electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. A distribution system where wind power capacity is 126% of maximum loads is chosen as the study case. This paper presents a nonlinear load optimization method to real-time power price...... for demand side management in order to save the energy costs as much as possible. Simulation results show that the optimal load response to a real-time electricity price has some good impacts on power system constraints in a distribution system with high wind power penetrations....

  4. New types of contracts. Part 1. Too high prices on the spot market for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    In two articles, the state of the art of new types of contract such as swaps, futures and spot contracts is covered. What is the situation of the Dutch deregulating market in this respect? In this first article the focus is on the spot market for electricity, while the second article in the next month's issue will deal with the gas market. Four foreign brokers are active in the Dutch electricity market in addition to Amsterdam Power Exchange (APX). The four major power producing companies, being subject to a Protocol, are not allowed to trade their power directly on the APX. That's why most of the power traded through the APX comes from outside the Netherlands. Thus, the foreign brokers complement the service package of the APX

  5. Is Power Production Flexibility a Substitute for Storability? Evidence from Electricity Futures Prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kilic, M.; Huisman, R. [Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2010-07-15

    Electricity is not storable. As a consequence, electricity demand and supply need to be in balance at any moment in time as a shortage in production volume cannot be compensated with supply from inventories. However, if the installed power supply capacity is very flexible, variation in demand can be counterbalanced with flexible adjustment of production volumes. Therefore, supply flexibility can replace the role of inventory. In this paper, we question whether power production flexibility is a substitute for storability. To do so, we examine power futures prices from countries that differ in their power supply and test whether power futures prices contain information about expected future spot prices and risk premiums and examine whether futures prices from a market in which power supply is more flexible would lead to futures prices that are more in line with the theory of storage. We find the opposite; futures prices from markets with flexible power supply behave according to the expectations theory. The implicit view from futures prices is that flexibility is not a substitute for storability.

  6. Is Power Production Flexibility a Substitute for Storability? Evidence from Electricity Futures Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kilic, M.; Huisman, R.

    2010-07-01

    Electricity is not storable. As a consequence, electricity demand and supply need to be in balance at any moment in time as a shortage in production volume cannot be compensated with supply from inventories. However, if the installed power supply capacity is very flexible, variation in demand can be counterbalanced with flexible adjustment of production volumes. Therefore, supply flexibility can replace the role of inventory. In this paper, we question whether power production flexibility is a substitute for storability. To do so, we examine power futures prices from countries that differ in their power supply and test whether power futures prices contain information about expected future spot prices and risk premiums and examine whether futures prices from a market in which power supply is more flexible would lead to futures prices that are more in line with the theory of storage. We find the opposite; futures prices from markets with flexible power supply behave according to the expectations theory. The implicit view from futures prices is that flexibility is not a substitute for storability.

  7. Production Contracts and the Spot Market Price of Hogs

    OpenAIRE

    Key, Nigel D.

    2010-01-01

    The increasing use of production contracts in the hog sector has reduced the number of spot market transactions, raised concerns about price manipulation and helped to spur legislation requiring price reporting by packers. Using data from the 2002 and 2007 Censuses of Agriculture, this study looks for evidence of market manipulation by examining whether the local prevalence of contracting affects the average price received by independent producers. The empirical approach uses a fixed-effects ...

  8. Retrospective modeling of the merit-order effect on wholesale electricity prices from distributed photovoltaic generation in the Australian National Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McConnell, Dylan; Hearps, Patrick; Eales, Dominic; Sandiford, Mike; Dunn, Rebecca; Wright, Matthew; Bateman, Lachlan

    2013-01-01

    In electricity markets that use a merit order dispatch system, generation capacity is ranked by the price that it is bid into the market. Demand is then met by dispatching electricity according to this rank, from the lowest to the highest bid. The last capacity dispatched sets the price received by all generation, ensuring the lowest cost provision of electricity. A consequence of this system is that significant deployments of low marginal cost electricity generators, including renewables, can reduce the spot price of electricity. In Australia, this prospect has been recognized in concern expressed by some coal-fired generators that delivering too much renewable generation would reduce wholesale electricity prices. In this analysis we calculate the likely reduction of wholesale prices through this merit order effect on the Australian National Electricity Market. We calculate that for 5 GW of capacity, comparable to the present per capita installation of photovoltaics in Germany, the reduction in wholesale prices would have been worth in excess of A$1.8 billion over 2009 and 2010, all other factors being equal. We explore the implications of our findings for feed-in tariff policies, and find that they could deliver savings to consumers, contrary to prevailing criticisms that they are a regressive form of taxation. - Highlights: ► We model the impact of photovoltaic generation on the Australian electricity market. ► Photovoltaic generation depresses electricity prices, particularly in summer peaks. ► Over the course of a year, the depression in wholesale prices has significant value. ► 5 GW of solar generation would have saved $1.8 billion in the market over two years. ► The depression of wholesale prices offsets the cost of support mechanisms

  9. Lead-lag effects between Brent Crude Futures and its respective spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Garcia Angelico

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article aims the analyses of the causality and temporal precedence relationships between the spot and futures prices of Brent oil, those last ones inherent to financial markets. In order to achieve this objective, the main tools used were: Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test (GCBEW; generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast errors, those three last ones were estimated based in a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC, adjusted to the analyzed variables. The results indicated that, for the stipulated period, there was a pricing lightweight leadership from the futures contracts to the prices of spot market. However, as a conclusion of the article, the understanding is that this small difference, calculated in several econometric tools, cannot be considered enough to indicate that the Brent oil future market would be distorting its respective spot prices, despite the economic fundamentals of the physical market, such as production, consumption and stockpiling processes. Therefore, management decisions in industries exposed to crude oil prices should be aware of both physical and future markets’ prospections.

  10. Forecasting spot electricity prices : Deep learning approaches and empirical comparison of traditional algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lago Garcia, J.; De Ridder, Fjo; De Schutter, B.H.K.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a novel modeling framework for forecasting electricity prices is proposed. While many predictive models have been already proposed to perform this task, the area of deep learning algorithms remains yet unexplored. To fill this scientific gap, we propose four different deep learning

  11. International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George A. Thopila

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

  12. Electricity deregulation, spot price patterns and demand-side management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Y.; Flynn, P.C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines extensive hourly or half-hourly power price data from 14 deregulated power markets. It analyzes average diurnal patterns, relationship to system load, volatility, and consistency over time. Diurnal patterns indicate the average price spread between off-peak and on-peak and weekend vs. weekday power consumption. Volatility is measured by price velocity: the average normalized hourly change in power price, calculated daily. The calculated price velocity is broken down into an expected component that arises from the diurnal pattern and an unexpected component that arises from unknown factors. The analysis reveals significant differences among markets, suggesting that demand-side management (DSM) of power consumption is far more difficult in some markets than in others. At one extreme, Spain, Britain and Scandinavia show consistent diurnal price patterns, a stable relationship between price and system load, and a low unexplained component of price volatility. A power consumer in these markets could form a reasonable expectation of a reward for DSM of elective power consumption. At the other extreme, two markets in Australia show erratic diurnal price patterns from year to year, low correlation between price and system load, and a high amount of unexpected price velocity. A power consumer in these markets would have far greater difficulty in realizing a benefit from DSM. Markets that experienced one period of very high prices without a clear external cause, such as California and Alberta, appear to have a significant longer-term erosion of public support for deregulation. (author)

  13. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot,and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public.The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market prices in Xinjiang fluctuate prominently in the short run and tend to counterpoise in the long run;the futures market of cotton plays the role of leading the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang,while the spot market prices of cotton in Xinjiang impacts little on the futures market prices.The corresponding countermeasures are put forward.The government should continuously perfect the construction of the futures market of cotton in Xinjiang,so as to exert the function of price discovery and the function of hedging,and promote the development of cotton industry in Xinjiang.

  14. MODELADO DEL PRECIO SPOT DE LA ELECTRICIDAD EN BRASIL USANDO UNA RED NEURONAL AUTORREGRESIVA ELECTRICITY SPOT PRICE MODELLING IN BRASIL USING AN AUTOREGRESSIVE NEURAL NETWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan D Velásquez

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Una red neuronal autorregresiva es estimada para el precio mensual brasileño de corto plazo de la electricidad, la cual describe mejor la dinámica de los precios que un modelo lineal autorregresivo y que un perceptrón multicapa clásico que usan las mismas entradas y neuronas en la capa oculta. El modelo propuesto es especificado usando un procedimiento estadístico basado en el contraste del radio de verosimilitud. El modelo pasa una batería de pruebas de diagnóstico. El procedimiento de especificación propuesto permite seleccionar el número de unidades en la capa oculta y las entradas a la red neuronal, usando pruebas estadísticas que tienen en cuenta la cantidad de los datos y el ajuste del modelo a la serie de precios. La especificación del modelo final demuestra que el precio para el próximo mes es una función no lineal del precio actual, de la energía afluente actual y de la energía almacenada en el embalse equivalente en el mes actual y dos meses atrás.An autoregressive neural network model is estimated for the monthly Brazilian electricity spot price, which describes the prices dynamics better than a linear autoregressive model and a classical multilayer perceptron using the same input and neurons in the hidden layer. The proposed model is specified using a statistical procedure based on a likelihood ratio test. The model passes a battery of diagnostic tests. The proposed specification procedure allows us to select the number of units in hidden layer and the inputs to the neural network based on statistical tests, taking into account the number of data and the model fitting to the price time series. The final model specification demonstrates that the price for the next month is a nonlinear function of the current price, the current energy inflow, and the energy saved in the equivalent reservoir in the current month and two months ago.

  15. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vehvilaeinen, I.

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price movements, and offers a computationally efficient way of simulating spot prices. The thesis shows that the connection between spot prices and electricity forward prices is nontrivial because electricity is a commodity that must be consumed immediately. Consequently, forward prices of different times are based on the supply-demand conditions at those times. This thesis introduces a statistical model that captures the main characteristics of observed forward price movements. The thesis presents the pricing problems relating to the common Nordic electricity derivatives, as well as the pricing relations between electricity derivatives. The special characteristics of electricity make spot electricity market incomplete. The thesis assumes the existence of a risk-neutral martingale measure so that formal pricing results can be obtained. Some concepts introduced in financial markets are directly usable in the electricity markets. The risk management application in this thesis uses a static optimal portfolio selection framework where Monte Carlo simulation provides quantitative results. The application of mathematical finance requires careful consideration of the special characteristics of the electricity markets. Economic theory and reasoning have to be taken into account when constructing financial models in competitive electricity markets. (orig.)

  16. The impact of heat waves on electricity spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pechan, Anna; Eisenack, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    Thermoelectric power plants depend on cooling water drawn from water bodies. Low river run-off and/or high water temperatures limit a plant's production capacity. This problem may intensify with climate change. Our study quantifies the impact of forced capacity reductions on market prices, production costs, consumer and producer surplus, as well as emissions by means of a bottom-up power generation system model. First, we simulate the German electricity spot market during the heat wave of 2006. Then we conduct a sensitivity study that accounts for future climatic and technological conditions. We find an average price increase of 11% during the heat wave 2006, which is even more pronounced during times of peak demand. Production costs accumulate to an additional but moderate 16 m. Due to the price increase, producers gain from the heat wave, whereas consumers disproportionately bear the costs. Carbon emissions in the German electricity sector increase during the heat wave. The price and cost effects are more pronounced and increase significantly if assumptions on heat-sensitive demand, hydropower capacity, net exports, and capacity reductions are tightened. These are potential additional effects of climate change. Hence, if mitigation fails or is postponed globally, the impacts on the current energy system are very likely to rise. Increases in feed-in from renewable resources and demand-side management can counter the effects to a considerable degree. Countries with a shift toward a renewable energy supply can be expected to be much less susceptible to cooling water scarcity than those with a high share of nuclear and coal-fired power plants. - Highlights: • We quantify the impact of thermal capacity reductions on the electricity market. • German heat wave 2006 caused moderate rise in production costs. • Capacity reductions have substantial impact on prices and raise producer surplus. • Impacts on prices, production cost and surplus amplify under climate

  17. The impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Seul-Ye; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

    2013-01-01

    Electricity has played an important role in the economic development of Korea and, thus, has become a critical factor in sustaining the well-being of the Korean people. This study attempts to investigate the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level using input–output (I–O) analysis. To this end, we apply the I–O price model to the 2011 I–O table recently produced by the Bank of Korea, paying particular attention to the electricity sector by considering it as exogenous and then investigating its impacts. The impacts of the electricity price changes on each industrial sector's prices and the general price level are quantitatively derived. For example, the overall impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean national economy is estimated to be 0.4367%. We also report the results from the model with the electricity sector endogenous and the model with endogenous electricity and labor sectors. This information can be usefully utilized in decision-making regarding price management for electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the impact of electricity price changes on the Korean economy. • We use the input–output (I–O) analysis specifying the electricity sector as exogenous. • We apply the I–O price model to 2010 I–O table produced by the Bank of Korea. • The impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean economy is 0.2176%

  18. Electric Cars and Oil Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Azar, Jose

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies the joint dynamics of oil prices and interest in electric cars, measured as the volume of Google searches for related phrases. Not surprisingly, I find that oil price shocks predict increases in Google searches for electric cars. Much more surprisingly, I also find that an increase in Google searches predicts declines in oil prices. The high level of public interest in electric cars between April and August of 2008 can explain approximately half of the decline in oil prices...

  19. An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Min-xiang; Tao, Xiao-hu; Han, Zhen-xiang

    2003-01-01

    Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.

  20. Competition in electricity spot markets. Economic theory and international experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David

    1998-09-01

    This publication gives a survey of economic theory and international experience connected to electricity spot markets. The main purpose is to consider the attempts that have been made to apply economic theory and empirical methods to the analysis of electricity markets, and to evaluate them in light of theoretical considerations and empirical evidence. The publication describes in simple terms the basic pool pricing mechanism, and experience with pools in a number of countries. It is worth emphasizing that it is not the purpose to treat in extensive detail the structure of electricity pools around the world. Key factors of the markets in England and Wales, Norway and Australia are described in order to allow for a comparison of design issues and evaluation of competitive performance. 80 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  1. Forecasting European thermal coal spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicja Krzemień

    2015-01-01

    Finally, in order to analyse the time series model performance a Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN was used and its performance compared against the whole AR(2 process. Empirical results obtained confirmed that there is no statistically significant difference between both methods. The GRNN analysis also allowed pointing out the main drivers that move the European Thermal Coal Spot prices: crude oil, USD/CNY change and supply side drivers.

  2. The European power industry : asymmetries and price volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isabel, M.; Soares, R.T.

    2005-01-01

    A time series model was used to obtain empirical evidence on the spot price volatility of the Spanish electricity market. The model was based on a single market operator and 2 system operators. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to model and forecast conditional variances related to the spot price volatility of the Spanish electricity market. A correlogram analysis was used to model the processes behind the time series. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were used to demonstrate that the the derived electricity spot price series was not a random walk. Lags in various areas were attributed to the fact that a large proportion of electricity is consumed by industry. Weekly cycles justified values presented by a lags multiple of 7. Results of the modelling study showed that the method can be used in the risk management of electricity portfolios as well as in the pricing and hedging of different types of derivatives in electricity markets. It was concluded that further work is needed to reduce instability and asymmetries between generators, consumers and regulators. 16 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs

  3. Regulatory restrictions and energy: The impact of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gius, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is to estimate the effects of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices. Although the Jones Act pertains to the domestic shipment of all types of goods, the present study will only focus on gasoline. The present study will use data obtained from the Energy Information Administration in order to determine if the price of gasoline declined during Jones Act waiver periods. Looking at daily prices, the results regarding the effects of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices are mixed. When using a t-test, the results indicated either that there was no significant difference or that prices were actually higher during the waiver periods. When using a first-order autoregressive model, it was found that prices were lower during the 2005 waiver period but higher during the 2012 waiver. Given these inconclusive results, it is not possible to conclude that the Jones Act restrictions contribute to higher gasoline prices. - Highlights: • I examine the effect of the Jones Act on spot gasoline prices. • I use daily price data over a seven year period. • I find that the results are mixed. • For the Hurricane Katrina waiver, prices fell, but for the Hurricane Sandy waiver, prices rose

  4. Price Formation and Competition in the Swedish Electricity Market. Main findings of ER 2006:13

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-11-01

    The Nordic electricity market can be divided into a Nordic wholesale market - the producer market - and the, national, retail markets. Nord Pool organises a 24-hour market for the physical trade of electricity, the spot market. Nord Pool also has a market place for so-called financial trade where players can (among other things) hedge themselves against price risks. Thus, the trade at Nord Pool represents the basis for trading with electricity throughout the entire Nordic market. In addition to the trade at Nord Pool, there is also bilateral trading between buyers and sellers. The report has been arranged as follows. Initially the functioning of the wholesale market is analysed, the issues addressed include the price formation in the spot market, the functioning of the financial market, as well as the price development in the spot market. The section ends with an analysis of the competitive situation in the Nordic wholesale market with a focus on Sweden. The next section focuses on how a potential introduction of Elspot areas in Sweden might affect the conditions for competition. The third section looks at certain conditions in the Swedish retail market and on certain consequences for households and electricity-intensive industry due to the price increases in recent years. The report concludes with the Energy Markets Inspectorate's deliberations on the need for measures to be undertaken in the Swedish and Nordic electricity market. The concentration on the Nordic electricity market is at a level where the authorities monitoring competition need to counteract changes that lead to further concentration. The present structure of the market, with an increasingly high concentration and co-ownership of power stations, also places demands on the authorities responsible for monitoring competition to implement measures designed to detect and to prevent the possible abuse of market power. There is a substantial need for research on competition and efficiency on the

  5. Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2013-01-01

    We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

  6. Consumption, price asymmetries, transmission congestion and market power in the Norwegian electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirza, Faisal Mehmood

    2011-07-01

    The results from this dissertation add to the ongoing debate in Norway if NordPool spot should shift from zonal price scheme to the nodal price scheme. Academically, the individual papers provide a number of theoretical frameworks that are helpful in analyzing electricity markets around the world. The PhD dissertation investigates price determination process in the Norwegian electricity market and evaluates if the market works at perfectly competitive level or producers exercise market power to drive prices away from their marginal cost of production. Using aggregate hourly electricity supply and demand data, the empirical analysis carried out in this dissertation leads to the following conclusions. 1. Market power at the generation level is not a major problem for the Norwegian electricity market. On average, when we consider the events of binding transmission capacity as exogenous, the average markup in economic terms is small and has not exceeded one percent. 2. Producers can use the information on available transmission capacity between different price areas in Norway and restrict their output to induce transmission congestion in their price area to exercise market power. Average markup during such instances has remained high at 20 percent. 3. Transmission capacity in Norway is not being optimally utilized as import capacity remains at its lowest level during the hours when southern Norway is generally a net importer of electricity, when compared to the rest of the hours of the day. 4. A segment of electricity retailers in the Norwegian electricity market exercises its market power by controlling the pass-through of price changes in the wholesale market to the retail market for variable price contract consumers. The pass-through is asymmetric, whereby cost increase is transmitted completely and quickly when compared to the case of cost decrease. 5.The Daylight saving time (Summer time) policy is helpful in ensuring energy efficiency. It results in electricity

  7. An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knittel, C.R.; Roberts, M.R.

    2005-01-01

    We present an empirical analysis of restructured electricity prices. We study the distributional and temporal properties of the price process in a non-parametric framework, after which we parametrically model the price process using several common asset price specifications from the asset-pricing literature, as well as several less conventional models motivated by the peculiarities of electricity prices. The findings reveal several characteristics unique to electricity prices including several deterministic components of the price series at different frequencies. An 'inverse leverage effect' is also found, where positive shocks to the price series result in larger increases in volatility than negative shocks. We find that forecasting performance in dramatically improved when we incorporate features of electricity prices not commonly modelled in other asset prices. Our findings have implications for how empiricists model electricity prices, as well as how theorists specify models of energy pricing. (author)

  8. Effects of series compensation on spot price power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, G.B.; Wang Feng

    2005-01-01

    The operation of a deregulated power market becomes more complex as the generation scheduling is dependent on suppliers' and consumers' bids. With large number of transactions in the power market changing in time, it is more likely for some transmission lines to face congestion. Series compensation, such as TCSC, with its ability to directly control the power flow can be very helpful to improve the operation of transmission networks. The effects of TCSC on the operation of a spot price power market are studied in this paper using the modified IEEE 14-bus system. Optimal Power Flow incorporating TCSC is used to implement the spot price market. Linear bids are used to model suppliers' and consumers' bids. Issues of location and cost of TCSC are discussed. The effects of levels of TCSC compensation on wide range of system quantities are studied. The effects on the total social benefit, the spot prices, transmission congestion, total generation and consumption, benefit to individual supplier and consumer etc. are discussed. It is demonstrated that though use of TCSC makes the system more efficient and augments competition in the market, it is not easy to establish general relationships between the levels of compensation and various market quantities. Simulation studies like these can be used to assess the effects of TCSC in specific systems. (Author)

  9. Electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

  10. Financial methods in competitive electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shijie

    The restructuring of electric power industry has become a global trend. As reforms to the electricity supply industry spread rapidly across countries and states, many political and economical issues arise as a result of people debating over which approach to adopt in restructuring the vertically integrated electricity industry. This dissertation addresses issues of transmission pricing, electricity spot price modeling, as well as risk management and asset valuation in a competitive electricity industry. A major concern in the restructuring of the electricity industries is the design of a transmission pricing scheme that will ensure open-access to the transmission networks. I propose a priority-pricing scheme for zonal access to the electric power grid that is uniform across all buses in each zone. The Independent System Operator (ISO) charges bulk power traders a per unit ex ante transmission access fee based on the expected option value of the generated power with respect to the random zonal spot prices. The zonal access fee depends on the injection zone and a self-selected strike price determining the scheduling priority of the transaction. Inter zonal transactions are charged (or credited) with an additional ex post congestion fee that equals the zonal spot price difference. The unit access fee entitles a bulk power trader to either physical injection of one unit of energy or a compensation payment that equals to the difference between the realized zonal spot price and the selected strike price. The ISO manages congestion so as to minimize net compensation payments and thus, curtailment probabilities corresponding to a particular strike price may vary by bus. The rest of the dissertation deals with the issues of modeling electricity spot prices, pricing electricity financial instruments and the corresponding risk management applications. Modeling the spot prices of electricity is important for the market participants who need to understand the risk factors in

  11. Applying mathematical finance tools to the competitive Nordic electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Vehviläinen, Iivo

    2004-01-01

    This thesis models competitive electricity markets using the methods of mathematical finance. Fundamental problems of finance are market price modelling, derivative pricing, and optimal portfolio selection. The same questions arise in competitive electricity markets. The thesis presents an electricity spot price model based on the fundamental stochastic factors that affect electricity prices. The resulting price model has sound economic foundations, is able to explain spot market price mo...

  12. The pricing of natural gas in US markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, S.P.A.; Yucel, M.K.

    1993-01-01

    Our econometric evidence indicates that changes in natural gas prices are unequal in the long run. Nonetheless, all downstream prices change by at least as much as the average well-head price. Statistically, residential and commercial prices change as much as the city gate price. In the face of persistent shocks, however, market institutions and market dynamics can lead to lengthy periods in which the residential and commercial prices of natural gas adjust less than the wellhead or city gate prices. Electrical and industrial users of natural gas rely heavily on spot supplies and can switch fuels easily. Their ability to switch fuels may be related to the development of a spot market to serve them. Reliance on the spot market may explain why these end users have seen a greater reduction in natural gas prices than have the LDCs over the past seven years. The ability to switch fuels may account for electrical and industrial prices being the source of shocks in their relationships with the wellhead price. It also may explain why prices in these end-sue markets are quick to adjust. Commercial and residential customers cannot switch fuels easily and rely heavily on LDCs for their natural gas. The inability of these end users to switch fuels probably contributes to the reluctance of LDCs to purchase spot supplies of gas. Reliance on contract supplies may explain why the city gate price has not declined as much as electrical and industrial prices of natural gas over the past seven years. Furthermore, the LDCs administer prices in the commercial and residential markets under state regulation

  13. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  14. ELMO model predicts the price of electric power; ELMO-malli saehkoen hinnan ennustamiseksi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antila, H. [Electrowatt-Ekono Oy, Helsinki (Finland)

    2001-07-01

    Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons.

  15. Practical operation strategies for pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) utilising electricity price arbitrage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connolly, D.; Lund, H.; Finn, P.; Mathiesen, B.V.; Leahy, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, three practical operation strategies (24Optimal, 24Prognostic, and 24Hsitrocial) are compared to the optimum profit feasible for a PHES facility with a 360 MW pump, 300 MW turbine, and a 2 GWh storage utilising price arbitrage on 13 electricity spot markets. The results indicate that almost all (∼97%) of the profits can be obtained by a PHES facility when it is optimised using the 24Optimal strategy developed, which optimises the energy storage based on the day-ahead electricity prices. However, to maximise profits with the 24Optimal strategy, the day-ahead electricity prices must be the actual prices which the PHES facility is charged or the PHES operator must have very accurate price predictions. Otherwise, the predicted profit could be significantly reduced and even become a loss. Finally, using the 24Optimal strategy, the PHES profit can surpass the annual investment repayments required. However, over the 5-year period investigated (2005-2009) the annual profit from the PHES facility varied by more than 50% on five out of six electricity markets considered. Considering the 40-year lifetime of PHES, even with low investment costs, a low interest rate, and a suitable electricity market, PHES is a risky investment without a more predictable profit. - Highlights: → Electricity generators typically operate on a market, including energy storage. → This paper assesses how energy storage can maximise its profits on a market. → Four operating strategies are assessed on 13 markets using a case study.→ One operating strategy achieves 97% of the profits feasible.→ However, the profit varies a lot depending on the market and capital costs.

  16. Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popova, Julia

    2008-10-01

    This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to

  17. Regime jumps in electricity prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractMany countries are liberalizing their energy markets. Participants in these markets are exposed to market risk due to the characteristics of electricity price dynamics. Electricity prices are known to be mean-reverting very volatile and subject to frequent spikes. Models that describe

  18. The long-run price sensitivity dynamics of industrial and residential electricity demand: The impact of deregulating electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adom, Philip Kofi

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the demand-side of Ghana's electricity sector. We test two important related hypotheses: (1) deregulation of electricity price does not promote energy conservation, and (2) demand-price relationship is not an inverted U-shaped. The Stock and Watson dynamic OLS is used to address the so-called second-order bias. The result showed that, deregulation of electricity price in Ghana has induced behaviours that are more consistent with energy conservation improvements. The demand-price relationship is an inverted U, which suggests that there is a price range that end-users can tolerate further price rise and still increase their consumption of electricity. However, the degree of price tolerability is higher for residential consumers than industrial consumers. The simulation results showed that, further economic growth is likely to compromise energy conservation but more in the industrial sector than the residential sector. On the other hand, future crude oil price is likely to deteriorate energy conservation in the initial years after 2016, but this trend is likely to reverse after the year 2020. Pricing mechanisms are potent to induce energy conservation but inadequate. The results suggest that they should be complemented with other stringent policies such as a mandatory energy reduction policy, investment in renewables, and personalization of energy efficiency programs. - Highlights: • Studies the demand-side of the electricity sector • Deregulating electricity price promotes energy conservation • Demand-price relationship is an inverted U-shaped • Pricing policies should be combined with other energy mandatory reduction policies

  19. Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karakatsani, Nektaria V.; Bunn, Derek W.

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyses the complex, non-linear effects of spot price drivers in wholesale electricity markets: their intra-day dynamics and transient irregularities. The context is the UK market, after the reforms introduced in March 2001, analysed with an original set of price drivers reflecting economic, technical, strategic, risk, behavioural and market design effects. Models are estimated separately as daily time-series of the 48 half-hourly trading periods. All coefficients exhibit substantial intra-day variation, relating to the heterogeneity of operating plants and market design aspects. This reveals a market responding to economic fundamentals and plant operating properties, with learning and emergent financial characteristics, as well as some strategic manipulation of capacity, most effectively exercised by the more flexible plants. Using regime-switching parameters, the effects of capacity margin and inter-day capacity adjustment are elucidated, suggesting rent-seeking behaviour, despite the relatively low prices at the time. Overall, high-frequency, aggregate fundamental price models can usefully uncover critical aspects of market performance, evolution and agent behaviour. (author)

  20. Electricity prices in the Finnish retail market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehto, Eero

    2011-01-01

    This study focuses, firstly, on the pricing of electricity in the Finnish retail market. In particular, the impact of the ownership structure on prices is tested empirically. Secondly, the influence of low-cost electricity sources on retail prices is considered. The question about whether the average fuel costs rather than the wholesale price determine the retail prices is thus addressed. The supply side behaviour characterised may explain the passivity of client activity in the seemingly competitive Finnish market. - Research highlights: → Ownership has a strong impact on retail prices in the Finnish electricity market. → Locally owned companies' rates are 5-15 per cent lower than investor owned companies' rates. → Own low cost acquisition of electricity helps local firms to keep prices at low levels.

  1. CO2 Allowance and Electricity Price Interaction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-07-01

    With the introduction of CO2 emission constraints on power generators in the European Union, climate policy is starting to have notable effects on energy markets. This paper sheds light on the links between CO2 prices, electricity prices, and electricity costs to industry. It is based on a series of interviews with industrial and electricity stakeholders, as well as a rich literature seeking to estimate the exact effect of CO2 prices on electricity prices.

  2. Hedging electricity price volatility using nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mari, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Nuclear power is an important asset to reduce the volatility of electricity prices. • Unpredictability of fossil fuels and carbon prices makes power prices very volatile. • The dynamics of fossil fuels and carbon prices is described by Brownian motions. • LCOE values, volatilities and correlations are obtained via Monte Carlo simulations. • Optimal portfolios of generating technologies are get using a mean–variance approach. - Abstract: The analysis presented in this paper aims to put in some evidence the role of nuclear power as hedging asset against the volatility of electricity prices. The unpredictability of natural gas and coal market prices as well as the uncertainty in environmental policies may affect power generating costs, thus enhancing volatility in electricity market prices. The nuclear option, allowing to generate electricity without carbon emissions, offers the possibility to reduce the volatility of electricity prices through optimal diversification of power generating technologies. This paper provides a methodological scheme to plan well diversified “portfolios” of generating capacity that minimize the electricity price risk induced by random movements of fossil fuels market prices and by unpredictable fluctuations of carbon credits prices. The analysis is developed within a stochastic environment in which the dynamics of fuel prices as well as the dynamics of carbon credits prices is assumed to evolve in time according to well defined Brownian processes. Starting from market data and using Monte Carlo techniques to simulate generating cost values, the hedging argument is developed by selecting optimal portfolio of power generating technologies using a mean–variance approach

  3. Electricity prices differences between France and Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hensing, I.; Nolden, A.; Riechmann, Ch.; Schulz, W.

    1998-01-01

    High electricity prices in Germany especially as compared to France have played an important role in the electricity liberalization debate in Germany. The price differences can largely be explained by cost differences in electricity generation, the electricity grids, personnel cost and local taxes. Further analysis suggests that efficiency improvements upon market liberalization will only partly remove these price and cost differentials. Parts of the cost differentials are attributable to politically-motivated regulations and the (future) regulation of network functions. This implies that Germany can only expect to arrive at internationally comparable electricity prices if it advances with a reform of political and monopoly regulations alongside liberalizing electricity generation and trade. (author)

  4. The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. A multivariate threshold regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Bwo-Nung; Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper segments daily data from January of 1986 to April of 2007 into three periods based on certain important events. Both periods I and II indicate that the spot prices in general are higher than futures prices as was well-known in the literature. Only period-III (2001/9/11-2007/4/30) displays a reverse phenomenon: futures prices, in general, exceed spot prices. When the absolute value of a basis (futures-spot) is greater than the threshold value in the arbitrage area (regime 1 and 3), at least one of the error correction coefficients, representing adjustment towards equilibrium, is statistically significant. That is, there exists a tendency in the oil market in which prices move toward equilibrium. With respect to the short-run dynamic interaction between spot price change ((delta)s t ) and futures price change ((delta)f t ), our results indicate that when the spot price is higher than futures price, and the basis is less than certain threshold value (regime 3), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Conversely, when the futures price is higher than spot price and the basis is higher than certain threshold value (regime 1), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Finally, we use the method suggested by Diebold and Mariano [Diebold, Francis X., Mariano, Roberto S., 1995. Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3), 253-263] to compare the predictive power between the linear and nonlinear models. Our empirical results indicate that the in-sample prediction of the nonlinear model is clearly superior to that of the linear model. (author)

  5. Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.

  6. Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

    2010-01-01

    In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

  7. Optimal selling price and energy procurement strategies for a retailer in an electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatami, A.R.; Seifi, H.; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

    2009-01-01

    In an electricity market, the retailer sets up contracts with the wholesale side for purchasing electricity and with the customers for its selling. This paper proposes a mathematical method based on mixed-integer stochastic programming to determine the optimal sale price of electricity to customers and the electricity procurement policy of a retailer for a specified period. The retailer has multiple choices for electricity procurement, such as spot market, forward contracts, call options and self-production. Risk is considered and modeled by conditional value-at-risk methodology. Also, the competition between retailers is modeled using a market share function. A case study is illustrated to demonstrate the capability of the proposed method. (author)

  8. Ramsey prices in the Italian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigerna, Simona; Bollino, Carlo Andrea

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we derive optimal zonal prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market using estimation of a complete system of hourly demand in 2010–2011. In Italy, the hourly equilibrium price for all buyers is computed as a uniform average of supply zonal prices, resulting from market splitting due to line congestion. We model ex-ante individual bids expressed by heterogeneous consumers, which are distinguished by geographical zones. Using empirical estimations, we compute demand elasticity values and new zonal prices, according to a Ramsey optimal scheme. This is a new approach in the wholesale electricity market literature, as previous studies have discussed the relative merit of zonal prices, considering only the issue of line congestion. Our results show that the optimal pricing scheme can improve welfare in the day-ahead Italian electricity market, with respect to both the existing uniform price scheme and the proposal to charge the existing supply zonal prices to the demand side. - Highlights: • We model and estimate the demand of heterogeneous buyers in the electricity market. • Transmission line congestion creates welfare distortions in the market. • We derive optimal Ramsey prices in the Italian day-ahead electricity market. • We compare optimal prices with historical ones showing how to improve welfare.

  9. Essays on energy derivatives pricing and financial risk management =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madaleno, Mara Teresa da Silva

    This thesis consists of an introductory chapter (essay I) and five more empirical essays on electricity markets and CO2 spot price behaviour, derivatives pricing analysis and hedging. Essay I presents the structure of the thesis and electricity markets functioning and characteristics, as well as the type of products traded, to be analyzed on the following essays. In the second essay we conduct an empirical study on co-movements in electricity markets resorting to wavelet analysis, discussing long-term dynamics and markets integration. Essay three is about hedging performance and multiscale relationships in the German electricity spot and futures markets, also using wavelet analysis. We concentrate the investigation on the relationship between coherence evolution and hedge ratio analysis, on a time-frequency-scale approach, between spot and futures which conditions the effectiveness of the hedging strategy. Essays four, five and six are interrelated between them and with the other two previous essays given the nature of the commodity analyzed, CO2 emission allowances, traded in electricity markets. Relationships between electricity prices, primary energy fuel prices and carbon dioxide permits are analyzed on essay four. The efficiency of the European market for allowances is examined taking into account markets heterogeneity. Essay five analyzes stylized statistical properties of the recent traded asset CO2 emission allowances, for spot and futures returns, examining also the relation linking convenience yield and risk premium, for the German European Energy Exchange (EEX) between October 2005 and October 2009. The study was conducted through empirical estimations of CO2 allowances risk premium, convenience yield, and their relation. Future prices from an ex-post perspective are examined to show evidence for significant negative risk premium, or else a positive forward premium. Finally, essay six analyzes emission allowances futures hedging effectiveness, providing

  10. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  11. Reassessing the integration of European electricity markets: A fractional cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

    2016-01-01

    This study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in Europe, by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices, and adopting a time-varying fractional cointegration analysis. In addition, the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity (new interconnection, market coupling, increase in share of intermittent generation) on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated. Daily spot prices from February 2000 to March 2013 of nine European electricity spot markets (APX-UK, APX-NL, Belpex, EPEX-FR, EPEX-DE, IPEX, Nordpool, Omel and OTE) and month-ahead prices in four markets (French, British, German and Dutch) from November 2007 to December 2012 are investigated. Results show that unit root tests, which are generally used in the literature to test market integration, are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence, because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean-reverting time series. Furthermore, spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time, reflecting changes in the EU electrical system. One-month-ahead prices, by contrast, were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends. - Highlights: • We examine electricity market convergence in the EU. • Common price dynamics are affected by changes in interconnection and capacity. • Forward markets have increased in resilience. • Germany's nuclear plant closures had an adverse effect on most European electricity markets.

  12. Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ergemen, Yunus Emre; Haldrup, Niels; Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir

    to strong seasonal periodicity, and along the cross-sectional dimension, i.e. the hours of the day, there is a strong dependence which necessarily has to be accounted for in order to avoid spurious inference when focusing on the time series dependence alone. The long-range dependence is modelled in terms...... of a fractionally integrated panel data model and it is shown that both prices and loads consist of common factors with long memory and with loadings that vary considerably during the day. Due to the competitiveness of the Nordic power market the aggregate supply curve approximates well the marginal costs...... data approaches to analyse the time series and the cross-sectional dependence of hourly Nord Pool electricity spot prices and loads for the period 2000-2013. Hourly electricity prices and loads data are characterized by strong serial long-range dependence in the time series dimension in addition...

  13. The 1995 uranium spot market: Rising volume - rising prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    1995 Uranium Spot Market volume increased by 7.8 million lbs U308 equivalent from 1994 levels to over 42.1 million lbs U308 equivalent the largest since 1991. This increased volume was accompanied by increased prices. The restricted market price rose by over $2.20/lb U308 from the January range of $9.75-$10.00 per lb U308 to the December range of $11.95-$12.25 per pound U308. The unrestricted market price rose by over $2.65/lb U308 from the January range of $7.15-$7.30 per lb U308 to the December range of $9.80-$10.15 per pound U308. Unrestricted prices rose at a relatively steady pace each month for the first half of the year and at a greater pace through the second half of the year, while restricted prices rose faster during the first half of the year and leveled out during the second half of the year. The result was a partial closure of the gap between restricted and unrestricted prices

  14. Potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy: a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akkemik, K. Ali

    2011-01-01

    Recent reforms in the Turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs. This is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity. The changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy. Subsequently, producer and consumer prices will be affected. The potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in Turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households. This paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix (SAM) price modeling perspective. It is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy-producing sectors, mining, and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy. Consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices. - Research Highlights: → The impact of electricity generation costs on prices in other sectors is modeled. → A micro-SAM emphasizing electricity supply is constructed using 2002 I-O tables. → Energy, mining, and steel sectors are more responsive to electricity costs. → Living costs are less responsive to electricity cost changes than producer prices.

  15. Optimal designs of small CHP plants in a market with fluctuating electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, H.; Andersen, A.N.

    2005-01-01

    Combined Heat and Power production (CHP) are essential for implementation of the climate change response objectives in many countries. In an introduction period, small CHP plants have typically been offered fixed electricity prices, but in many countries, such pricing conditions are now being replaced by spot market prices. Consequently, new methodologies and tools for the optimisation of small CHP plant designs are needed. The small CHP plants in Denmark are already experienced in optimising their electricity production against the triple tariff, which has existed for almost 10 years. Consequently, the CHP plants have long term experience in organising when to switch on and off the CHP units in order to optimise their profit. Also, the CHP owners have long term experience in designing their plants. For instance, small CHP plants in Denmark have usually invested in excess capacity on the CHP units in combination with heat storage capacity. Thereby, the plants have increased their performance in order to optimise revenues. This paper presents the Danish experience with methodologies and software tools, which have been used to design investment and operation strategies for almost all small CHP plants in Denmark during the decade of the triple tariff. Moreover, the changes in such methodologies and tools in order to optimise performance in a market with fluctuating electricity prices are presented and discussed

  16. Germany's nuclear power plant closures and the integration of electricity markets in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menezes, Lilian M. de; Houllier, Melanie A.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the potential implications of national policies that lead to a sudden increase of wind power in the electricity mix for interconnected European electricity markets. More specifically, it examines market integration before and after the closures of eight nuclear power plants that occurred within a period of a few months in Germany during 2011. The short- and- long run interrelationships of daily electricity spot prices, from November 2009 to October 2012, in: APX-ENDEX, BELPEX, EPEX-DE, EPEX-FR, NORDPOOL, OMEL and SWISSIX; and wind power in the German system are analysed. Two MGARCH (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models with dynamic correlations are used to assess spot market behaviour in the short run, and a fractional cointegration analysis is conducted to investigate changes in the long-run behaviour of electricity spot prices. Results show: positive time-varying correlations between spot prices in markets with substantial shared interconnector capacity; a negative association between wind power penetration in Germany and electricity spot prices in the German and neighbouring markets; and, for most markets, a decreasing speed in mean reversion. -- Highlights: •Associations between spot prices and wind power are time-varying. •Greater spot price and volatility associations across markets are observed. •In the long run, the German market is less integrated with neighbouring markets. •Policies on a local electricity mix can affect spot prices in connected markets

  17. Electricity prices and generator behaviour in gross pool electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Mahoney, Amy; Denny, Eleanor

    2013-01-01

    Electricity market liberalisation has become common practice internationally. The justification for this process has been to enhance competition in a market traditionally characterised by statutory monopolies in an attempt to reduce costs to end-users. This paper endeavours to see whether a pool market achieves this goal of increasing competition and reducing electricity prices. Here the electricity market is set up as a sealed bid second price auction. Theory predicts that such markets should result with firms bidding their marginal cost, thereby resulting in an efficient outcome and lower costs to consumers. The Irish electricity system with a gross pool market experiences among the highest electricity prices in Europe. Thus, we analyse the Irish pool system econometrically in order to test if the high electricity prices seen there are due to participants bidding outside of market rules or out of line with theory. Overall we do not find any evidence that the interaction between generator and the pool in the Irish electricity market is not efficient. Thus, the pool element of the market structure does not explain the high electricity prices experienced in Ireland. - Highlights: • We consider whether a gross pool achieves competitive behaviour. • We analyse the Irish pool system econometrically. • Results indicate the Irish pool system appears to work efficiently. • Generators appear to be bidding appropriately

  18. Electricity: French industrialists tied up by prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemain, A.

    2004-01-01

    With more than 50% of increase in 3 years, the electricity prices reach summits in France. The industrialists, initially enthusiastic over the promises of the liberalization of European energy markets, are today particularly disappointed and denounce an irrational logic. The reasons of these inflationary prices are explained in this article: alignment of electricity prices with respect to the prices of the less efficient producers (oil and gas power plants), lack of peak production means which induces prices volatility, a commodity market model unsuitable to electricity specificities, lack of transparency in the establishment of reference prices, no margins for negotiation, and will of Electricite de France (EdF) to restore its financial status. (J.S.)

  19. Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

  20. Electricity market price volatility: The case of Ontario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zareipour, Hamidreza; Bhattacharya, Kankar; Canizares, Claudio A.

    2007-01-01

    Price volatility analysis has been reported in the literature for most competitive electricity markets around the world. However, no studies have been published yet that quantify price volatility in the Ontario electricity market, which is the focus of the present paper. In this paper, a comparative volatility analysis is conducted for the Ontario market and its neighboring electricity markets. Volatility indices are developed based on historical volatility and price velocity concepts, previously applied to other electricity market prices, and employed in the present work. The analysis is carried out in two scenarios: in the first scenario, the volatility indices are determined for the entire price time series. In the second scenario, the price time series are broken up into 24 time series for each of the 24 h and volatility indices are calculated for each specific hour separately. The volatility indices are also applied to the locational marginal prices of several pricing points in the New England, New York, and PJM electricity markets. The outcomes reveal that price volatility is significantly higher in Ontario than the three studied neighboring electricity markets. Furthermore, comparison of the results of this study with similar findings previously published for 15 other electricity markets demonstrates that the Ontario electricity market is one of the most volatile electricity markets world-wide. This high volatility is argued to be associated with the fact that Ontario is a single-settlement, real-time market

  1. Which way the natural gas price. An attempt to predict the direction of natural gas spot price movements using trader positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchanan, W.K.; Hodges, P.; Theis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This research provides a method of predicting direction of spot price movements in the natural gas market for the month succeeding from market participants positions in the futures market. Cumby and Modest (Cumby, R.E., Modest, D.M., 1987. Testing for market timing ability: a framework for forecast evaluation. Journal of Financial Economics 19, 169-189) provide the backdrop for analyzing the futures market positions of large hedgers and speculators to arrive at conclusions of market price movements in the spot market. This methodology is suggested as a means for municipalities entering the natural gas market to improve upon their ordering of quantities of gas for the ensuing months in order to take advantage of possibly foreseeable price trends

  2. Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyritsis, Evangelos; Andersson, Jonas; Serletis, Apostolos

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of intermittent solar and wind power generation on electricity price formation in Germany. We use daily data from 2010 to 2015, a period with profound modifications in the German electricity market, the most notable being the rapid integration of photovoltaic and wind power sources, as well as the phasing out of nuclear energy. In the context of a GARCH-in-Mean model, we show that both solar and wind power Granger cause electricity prices, that solar power generation reduces the volatility of electricity prices by scaling down the use of peak-load power plants, and that wind power generation increases the volatility of electricity prices by challenging electricity market flexibility. - Highlights: • We model the impact of solar and wind power generation on day-ahead electricity prices. • We discuss the different nature of renewables in relation to market design. • We explore the impact of renewables on the distributional properties of electricity prices. • Solar and wind reduce electricity prices but affect price volatility in the opposite way. • Solar decreases the probability of electricity price spikes, while wind increases it.

  3. Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nogales, F.J.; Conejo, A.J.

    2006-01-01

    Forecasting electricity prices in present day competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naive and other techniques. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 350-356.doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601995; published online 18 May 2005. (author)

  4. Cost-reflective electricity pricing: Consumer preferences and perceptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Nina L.; Jeanneret, Talia D.; Rai, Alan

    2016-01-01

    In Australia, residential electricity peak demand has risen steeply in recent decades, leading to higher prices as new infrastructure was needed to satisfy demand. One way of limiting further infrastructure-induced retail price rises is via ‘cost-reflective’ electricity network pricing that incentivises users to shift their demand to non-peak periods. Empowering consumers with knowledge of their energy usage is critical to maximise the potential benefits of cost-reflective pricing. This research consulted residential electricity consumers in three Australian states on their perceptions and acceptance of two cost-reflective pricing scenarios (Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing) and associated technologies to support such pricing (smart meters, in-home displays and direct load control devices). An energy economist presented information to focus groups on the merits and limitations of each scenario, and participants’ views were captured. Almost half of the 53 participants were agreeable to Time-of-Use pricing, but did not have a clear preference for Peak Capacity pricing, where the price was based on the daily maximum demand. Participants recommended further information to both understand and justify the potential benefits, and for technologies to be introduced to enhance the pricing options. The results have implications for utilities and providers who seek to reduce peak demand. - Highlights: •Electricity price rises can be limited by ‘cost-reflective’ pricing. •We consulted residential electricity consumers on Time-of-Use and Peak Capacity pricing. •Understanding of peak electricity demand must increase to enable demand shift. •Interactive website could enable consumers to evaluate pricing options. •Smart meter adoption may increase if voluntary and includes an in-home display.

  5. A Generalized Schwartz Model for Energy Spot Prices - Estimation using a Particle MCMC Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lunde, Asger; Brix, Anne Floor; Wei, Wei

    structure. Instead of using various filtering techniques for splitting the two factors, as often found in the literature, we estimate the model in one step using an adaptive MCMC method with a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter. We fit the model to UK natural gas spot prices and investigate the importance......We propose an energy spot price model featuring a two-factor price process and a two-component stochastic volatility process. The first factor in the price process captures the normal variations; the second accounts for spikes. The two-component volatility allows for a flexible autocorrelation...... of spikes and stochastic volatility. We find that the inclusion of stochastic volatility is crucial and that it strongly impacts the jump intensity in the spike process. Furthermore, our estimation method enables us to consider both continuous and purely jump-driven volatility processes, and thereby assess...

  6. Spot volume nearly 5 million lbs; restricted price hits $11.00

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in March 1995 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. The 40 transactions made for the month are described separately for each market. Deals made in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and enrichment markets are further detailed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  7. Calculation and decomposition of spot price using interior point nonlinear optimisation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, K.; Song, Y.H.

    2004-01-01

    Optimal pricing for real and reactive power is a very important issue in a deregulation environment. This paper summarises the optimal pricing problem as an extended optimal power flow problem. Then, spot prices are decomposed into different components reflecting various ancillary services. The derivation of the proposed decomposition model is described in detail. Primary-Dual Interior Point method is applied to avoid 'go' 'no go' gauge. In addition, the proposed approach can be extended to cater for other types of ancillary services. (author)

  8. Price interactions and discovery among natural gas spot markets in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Haesun; Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2008-01-01

    Recent advances in modeling causal flows with time series analysis are used to study relationships among eight North American natural gas spot market prices. Results indicate that the Canadian and US natural gas market is a single highly integrated market. Further results indicate that price discovery tends to reflect both regions of excess demand and supply. Across North America, Malin Hub in Oregon, Chicago Hub, Illinois, Waha, Texas, and Henry Hub, Louisiana region, are the most important markets for price discovery. Opal Hub in Wyoming is an information sink in contemporaneous time, receiving price information but passing on no price information. AECO Hub in Alberta, Canada, receives price signals from several markets and passes on information to Opal and the Oklahoma region. (author)

  9. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... to generation combination portfolio. Proposed solutions should be able to tackle with emerging challenges which are mainly due to high variability and unpredictability of intermittent renewable resources. In this paper high price volatility will be introduced as an emerging challenge in wind dominant...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts...

  10. Long-term projections for electricity and gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borggrefe, Frieder; Lochner, Stefan

    2009-01-01

    The article analyses potential developments of wholesale electricity prices in Germany until 2030. The relevant determinants and their effects on prices are shown. Several projections demonstrate the impact of future fuel prices taking the political framework into account. The importance of carbon and gas prices - and the latter's relationship to oil prices - are discussed extensively. Although forecasting electricity prices is associated with great uncertainties, the article illustrates the relative impacts of the various price determinants and their interactions. (orig.)

  11. Importance of Electricity Transport Pricing in Liberalised Energy Markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlgemuth, N.

    2001-01-01

    Electricity has traditionally been supplied by vertically integrated companies providing generation, transmission and distribution services. Consumers have purchased a bundled commodity - delivered electricity - and there has been no need to price the components individually. This is no longer the case in competitive and unbundled electricity markets. One of the outstanding issues in the restructuring of the electricity markets is the way in which transmission costs are translated into tariffs. The efforts to create a single European electricity market are difficult to reconcile due to different national network pricing approaches. The European Commission's draft regulation on conditions for access to the network for cross-border exchanges of electricity sets general principles for the pricing of international electricity exchanges. Nodal pricing provides incentives for an efficient use of generation and transmission assets. Experience shows that nodal pricing is workable, and its use may be expected to increase progressively. Postage stamp pricing does not generally provide adequate incentives for efficiency. However, inefficiencies may be small under certain conditions, and postage stamp pricing has the advantage of being relatively transparent and easy to implement. This paper presents an overview of objectives related to an effective design of transmission pricing approaches, of transmission pricing models and presents recent developments in Europe in this respect. Due to the great number of institutional designs of electricity market organisations, it will be difficult to design and implement a model of cross-border transmission pricing that results in a high degree of non-discriminatory international competition in electricity markets, a key objective of the Electricity Directive.(author)

  12. Assessing the impact of wind generation on wholesale prices and generator dispatch in the Australian National Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forrest, Sam; MacGill, Iain

    2013-01-01

    Growing climate change and energy security concerns are driving major wind energy deployment in electricity industries around the world. Despite its many advantages, growing penetrations of this highly variable and somewhat unpredictable energy source pose new challenges for electricity industry operation. One issue receiving growing attention is the so-called ‘merit order effect’ of wind generation in wholesale electricity markets. Wind has very low operating costs and therefore tends to displace higher cost conventional generation from market dispatch, reducing both wholesale prices and conventional plant outputs. This paper extends the current literature on this effect through an empirical study employing a range of econometric techniques to quantify the impacts of growing wind penetrations in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). The results suggest that wind is having a marked impact on spot market prices and, while wind is primarily offsetting higher operating cost gas generation, it is now also significantly reducing dispatch of emissions intensive brown coal generation. Great care needs to be taken in extrapolating these results to longer-term implications, however, the study does propose a methodology for assessing this effect, highlights the impacts that wind is already having on NEM outcomes and suggests promising directions for future research. - Highlights: ► Proposes methodologies to estimate short run impact of wind on electricity markets. ► Quantifies the merit order effect of wind generation on wholesale spot price. ► Wind is found to be significantly effecting gas fired generation. ► Evidence is found for wind having a notable impact on baseload coal generation. ► Discusses the implications for development of wind generation in Australia

  13. 1997 begins quietly in the spot market as prices continue to drop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1997-01-01

    A summary of financial data for the uranium spot market in January 1997 is provided. Price ranges for the restricted and unrestricted markets, conversion, and separative work are listed, and total market volume and new contracts are noted. Transactions made are briefly described. Deals made and pending in the spot concentrates, medium and long-term, conversion, and markets are listed for U.S. and non-U.S. buyers

  14. Dynamic electricity pricing for electric vehicles using stochastic programming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, João; Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali Fotouhi; Borges, Nuno; Vale, Zita

    2017-01-01

    Electric Vehicles (EVs) are an important source of uncertainty, due to their variable demand, departure time and location. In smart grids, the electricity demand can be controlled via Demand Response (DR) programs. Smart charging and vehicle-to-grid seem highly promising methods for EVs control. However, high capital costs remain a barrier to implementation. Meanwhile, incentive and price-based schemes that do not require high level of control can be implemented to influence the EVs' demand. Having effective tools to deal with the increasing level of uncertainty is increasingly important for players, such as energy aggregators. This paper formulates a stochastic model for day-ahead energy resource scheduling, integrated with the dynamic electricity pricing for EVs, to address the challenges brought by the demand and renewable sources uncertainty. The two-stage stochastic programming approach is used to obtain the optimal electricity pricing for EVs. A realistic case study projected for 2030 is presented based on Zaragoza network. The results demonstrate that it is more effective than the deterministic model and that the optimal pricing is preferable. This study indicates that adequate DR schemes like the proposed one are promising to increase the customers' satisfaction in addition to improve the profitability of the energy aggregation business. - Highlights: • A stochastic model for energy scheduling tackling several uncertainty sources. • A two-stage stochastic programming is used to tackle the developed model. • Optimal EV electricity pricing seems to improve the profits. • The propose results suggest to increase the customers' satisfaction.

  15. The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Shu; Hyndman, Rob J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the price elasticity of electricity demand, representing the sensitivity of customer demand to the price of electricity, has been estimated for South Australia. We first undertake a review of the scholarly literature regarding electricity price elasticity for different regions and systems. Then we perform an empirical evaluation of the historic South Australian price elasticity, focussing on the relationship between price and demand quantiles at each half-hour of the day. This work attempts to determine whether there is any variation in price sensitivity with the time of day or quantile, and to estimate the form of any relationships that might exist in South Australia. - Highlights: → We review the scholarly literature on electricity own-price elasticity for different regions and systems. → We use annual log-linear econometric models of the electricity demand to estimate the historic South Australian price elasticity. → We focus on the relationship between price and demand quantiles at each half-hour of the day. → The overall price elasticity in South Australia ranges from -0.363 to -0.428.

  16. Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-08-01

    The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated open-quotes cost-of-serviceclose quotes pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices

  17. Consumer responses to time varying prices for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorsnes, Paul; Williams, John; Lawson, Rob

    2012-01-01

    We report new experimental evidence of the household response to weekday differentials in peak and off-peak electricity prices. The data come from Auckland, New Zealand, where peak residential electricity consumption occurs in winter for heating. Peak/off-peak price differentials ranged over four randomly selected groups from 1.0 to 3.5. On average, there was no response except in winter. In winter, participant households reduced electricity consumption by at least 10%, took advantage of lower off-peak prices but did not respond to the peak price differentials. Response varied with house and household size, time spent away from home, and whether water was heated with electricity. - Highlights: ► Seasonal effects in winter. ► High conservation effect from information. ► Higher peak prices no effect on peak use. ► Low off-peak prices encourage less conservation off-peak.

  18. Inquiry report about electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-10-01

    In March 2004, the French minister of economy, finances and industry put in the hands of the general inspection of finances and of the general council of mines, the mission to carry out an expertise about the evolution of electricity prices since February 2000, date of the progressive opening of the electricity market to competition. Since 2003, many customers, in particular the big power consuming industries, have started to worry in front of the increase of electricity prices. The conclusions of the expertise represent a contribution to the analysis of the operation of electricity markets and will participate to the improvement of this operation. This document comprises the synthesis of the report given to the minister and the full report. (J.S.)

  19. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  20. Electricity wholesale market prices in Europe: Convergence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachmann, Georg

    2008-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the European electricity sector has led to a common European market for electricity. Based on a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of wholesale electricity prices in 2002-2006, we reject the assumption of full market integration. For several pairs of countries, the weaker hypothesis of (bilateral) convergence is accepted based on unit root tests (KPSS and ADF) and a convergence test based on filtered pairwise price relations. This indicates that the efforts to develop a single European market for electricity were so far only partially successful. We show that the daily auction prices of scarce cross-border transmission capacities are insufficient to explain the persistence of international price differentials. Empirically, our findings confirm the insufficiency of explicit capacity auctions as stated in the theoretical literature. (author)

  1. Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-08-01

    The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated {open_quotes}cost-of-service{close_quotes} pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices.

  2. Spot markets vs. long-term contracts - modelling tools for regional electricity generating utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grohnheit, P.E.

    1999-01-01

    A properly organised market for electricity requires that some information will be available for all market participants. Also a range of generally available modelling tools are necessary. This paper describes a set of simple models based on published data for analyses of the long-term revenues of regional utilities with combined heat and power generation (CHP), who will operate a competitive international electricity market and a local heat market. The future revenues from trade on the spot market is analysed using a load curve model, in which marginal costs are calculated on the basis of short-term costs of the available units and chronological hourly variations in the demands for electricity and heat. Assumptions on prices, marginal costs and electricity generation by the different types of generating units are studied for selected types of local electricity generators. The long-term revenue requirements to be met by long-term contracts are analysed using a traditional techno-economic optimisation model focusing on technology choice and competition among technologies over 20.30 years. A possible conclusion from this discussion is that it is important for the economic and environmental efficiency of the electricity market that local or regional generators of CHP, who are able to react on price signals, do not conclude long-term contracts that include fixed time-of-day tariff for sale of electricity. Optimisation results for a CHP region (represented by the structure of the Danish electricity and CHP market in 1995) also indicates that a market for CO 2 tradable permits is unlikely to attract major non-fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation, e.g. wind power. (au)

  3. Pricing of electricity in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amarullah, M.

    1983-01-01

    The objectives of this study are 1) to establish a sound theoretical basis for the determinants of electricity demand in Indonesia, 2) to measure the welfare losses of existing electricity pricing, and 3) to suggest a method of reducing these welfare losses. An econometric model for electricity demand is estimated using pooled time-series of fifteen regions in Indonesia covering the period 1970-1979. The short run price elasticities for both residential and industrial/business sectors are found to be inelastic, while the long run price elasticities for these sectors are found to be quite elastic with a value of -.61 for the residential sector and of -1.1 for the industrial/business sector. Income elasticity is .8 in the short run and around 1.00 for the long run. The exposure variable that captures the accessibility of electricity, has long run elasticity of 1.00 for the residential sector and less than 1.00 for the industrial/business sector. Due to distributional considerations, the 1980's electricity rate was set below its efficient level, and has created a welfare loss of Rp.8273.23 million per month. This accounts for 36.03% of the monthly electricity revenue. A rebate mechanism is recommended in this study, which provides a way to mitigate conflicting aspects of efficiency and equity

  4. Regulation of electricity prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihok, P.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper author deals with the regulation of electricity prices in the Slovak Republic. Author contests the social policy of the government through doped prices of electricity. Two thirds of electricity is generated in nuclear power plants in Slovakia. Hence, it is necessary to focus on the solution of problem of nuclear waste. In 2004 Ministry of Economy stated, that the deficit in nuclear fund, from which the country have to fully cover the costs of liquidation and final disposal of nuclear waste, is estimated in the amount of around 89 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 3.7 billion $). From it, so called historical deficit, which originated because of late foundation of fund, represents officially 15 billion Slovak crowns (≅ 0.62 billion $). In Slovakia exists the real risk, that by maintenance of present state by creation and draw of the fund, it will be possible to ensure only 39 per cent of financial sources necessary for full financial handling of the back part of nuclear energetic. Even though the Ministry of Economy in connection with privatisation of Slovenske elektrarne designed to decrease the transfers of operators of nuclear power plants into nuclear fund. In 2006 the Parliament decreased by the law the level of gains of the fund from sale of nuclear electricity (the second from two components of the gains of the fund) from 6.8 to 5.95 per cent from annual revenues. So the tax of forced reduction of the price of nuclear electricity will be represented by loading of the further generations

  5. Impact of the carbon price on the integrating European electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aatola, Piia; Ollikainen, Markku; Toppinen, Anne

    2013-01-01

    We study the impact of the carbon price on the integrating electricity market in the EU. Our theoretical framework suggests that the price of carbon has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices depending on the marginal production plant. The carbon price may increase price differences in the short run. We apply time series analysis on daily forward data from 2003 to 2011 and investigate whether we can find empirical evidence for our analytical findings. Our results support the hypotheses that integration in electricity prices has increased over time and that the carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on the integration of prices. - Highlights: • We model the integrating European electricity market under emissions trading scheme. • We examine the impact of carbon price on the electricity market prices. • We test theoretical hypotheses with econometric models. • Results show carbon price has a positive but uneven impact on electricity prices. • Integration among electricity prices has increased during 2003–2011

  6. Electricity Price Forecasting Based on AOSVR and Outlier Detection

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhou Dianmin; Gao Lin; Gao Feng

    2005-01-01

    Electricity price is of the first consideration for all the participants in electric power market and its characteristics are related to both market mechanism and variation in the behaviors of market participants. It is necessary to build a real-time price forecasting model with adaptive capability; and because there are outliers in the price data, they should be detected and filtrated in training the forecasting model by regression method. In view of these points, this paper presents an electricity price forecasting method based on accurate on-line support vector regression (AOSVR) and outlier detection. Numerical testing results show that the method is effective in forecasting the electricity prices in electric power market.

  7. Real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China based on system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Yongxiu; Zhang, Jixiang

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The system dynamics is used to research the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Four kinds of the real-time electricity pricing models are carried out and simulated. • It analysed the electricity price, the user satisfaction and the social benefits under the different models. • Market pricing is the trend of the real-time electricity pricing mechanism. • Initial development path of the real-time price mechanism for China is designed between 2015 and 2030. - Abstract: As an important means of demand-side response, the reasonable formulation of the electricity price mechanism will have an important impact on the balance between the supply and demand of electric power. With the introduction of Chinese intelligence apparatus and the rapid development of smart grids, real-time electricity pricing, as the frontier electricity pricing mechanism in the smart grid, will have great significance on the promotion of energy conservation and the improvement of the total social surplus. From the perspective of system dynamics, this paper studies different real-time electricity pricing mechanisms based on load structure, cost structure and bidding and analyses the situation of user satisfaction and the total social surplus under different pricing mechanisms. Finally, through the comparative analysis of examples under different real-time pricing scenarios, this paper aims to explore and design the future dynamic real-time electricity pricing mechanism in China, predicts the dynamic real-time pricing level and provides a reference for real-time electricity price promotion in the future

  8. The effect of costs and regulation on electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schlaf, E.P.

    1991-01-01

    Two distinct econometric tests were performed to determine if state price regulation of public utilities has had a measurable impact on retail electricity prices. The results of both tests agree that, during the 1971-1985 period, average national electricity prices in each of the three major consuming sectors and the four Census regions were below the level which would have been preferred by profit-maximizing monopolists. Electricity consumers received price benefits during the sample period as a result of regulation. The first test of the effectiveness of state price regulation used a 'revealed preference' approach by comparing the actual prices set by regulatory commissioners with prices and outcomes predicted by three competing theories of regulatory motivation. The second test of the effectiveness of price regulation combined traditional cost function inputs with regulatory variables in reduced-form price equations to determine whether the amount of regulatory intensity, as measured by the number of staff members per regulated utility, is associated with declining electricity prices and whether appointed commissioners allow higher prices than elected commissioners

  9. Electricity pricing model in thermal generating stations under deregulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reji, P.; Ashok, S.; Moideenkutty, K.M.

    2007-01-01

    In regulated public utilities with competitive power markets, deregulation has replaced the monopoly. Under the deregulated power market, the electricity price primarily depends on market mechanism and power demand. In this market, generators generally follow marginal pricing. Each generator fixes the electricity price based on their pricing strategy and it leads to more price volatility. This paper proposed a model to determine the electricity price considering all operational constraints of the plant and economic variables that influenced the price, for a thermal generating station under deregulation. The purpose of the model was to assist existing stations, investors in the power sector, regulatory authorities, transmission utilities, and new power generators in decision-making. The model could accommodate price volatility in the market and was based on performance incentive/penalty considering plant load factor, availability of the plant and peak/ off peak demand. The model was applied as a case study to a typical thermal utility in India to determine the electricity price. It was concluded that the case study of a thermal generating station in a deregulated environment showed that the electricity price mainly depended on the gross calorific value (GCV) of fuel, mode of operation, price of the fuel, and operating charges. 11 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

  10. Pricing and Application of Electric Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jialin

    Electric storage provides a vehicle to store power for future use. It contributes to the grids in multiple aspects. For instance, electric storage is a more effective approach to provide electricity ancillary services than conventional methods. Additionally, electric storage, especially fast-responding units, allows owners to implement high-frequency power transactions in settings such as the 5-min real-time trading market. Such high-frequency power trades were limited in the past. However, as technology advances, the power markets have evolved. For instance, the California Independent System Operator now supports the 5-min real-time trading and the hourly day-ahead ancillary services bidding. Existing valuation models of electric storage were not designed to accommodate these recent market developments. To fill this gap, I focus on the fast-responding grid-level electric storage that provides both the real-time trading and the day-ahead ancillary services bidding. To evaluate such an asset, I propose a Monte Carlo Simulation-based valuation model. The foundation of my model is simulations of power prices. This study develops a new simulation model of electric prices. It is worth noting that, unlike existing models, my proposed simulation model captures the dependency of the real-time markets on the day-ahead markets. Upon such simulations, this study investigates the pricing and the application of electric storage at a 5-min granularity. Essentially, my model is a Dynamic Programming system with both endogenous variables (i.e., the State-of-Charge of electric storage) and exogenous variables (i.e., power prices). My first numerical example is the valuation of a fictitious 4MWh battery. Similarly, my second example evaluates the application of two units of 2MWh batteries. By comparing these two experiments, I investigate the issues related to battery configurations, such as the impacts of splitting storage capability on the valuation of electric storage.

  11. A uniform price auction with locational price adjustments for competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ethier, R.; Mount, T.; Schulze, W.; Zimmerman, R.; Thomas, R.

    1999-01-01

    Competitive electricity markets which rely on centralized dispatch require a mechanism to solicit offers from competing generators. Ideally, such an auction mechanism, provides incentives to submit offers equal to the marginal cost of generation for each generator. Economic theory suggests that the Uniform Price auction is an appropriate institution. However, an efficient implementation of this auction in an electricity context requires that the offers used in the auction reflect the appropriate locational price adjustments for transmission losses and congestion. This paper describes a uniform price auction that incorporates locational price adjustments on a Web-based platform suitable for experimentation. Preliminary results show dramatically different price and revenue results when compared with a simple continuous Discriminative auction. (author)

  12. Forecasting prices and price volatility in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    We develop a stochastic model for long term price forecasting in a competitive electricity market environment. It is demonstrated both theoretically and through model simulations that non-stochastic models may give biased forecasts both with respect to price level and volatility. In the paper, the model concept is applied on the restructured Nordic electricity market. It is specially in peak load hours that a stochastic model formulation provides significantly different results than an expected value model. (author)

  13. Locational marginal prices with SVC in Indian electricity market ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spot pricing based on short run marginal cost (SRMC) theory has the potential to provide the economic signals for the power system operation. Reactive power has gained importance as an ancillary service in competitive markets and its impact on nodal price can not be ignored. With the emergence of FACTS technology, ...

  14. Economic analysis of electric heating based on critical electricity price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Feng; Sun, Zhijie; Zhou, Xinnan; Fu, Chengran; Yang, Jie

    2018-06-01

    The State Grid Corporation of China proposes an alternative energy strategy, which will make electric heating an important task in the field of residential electricity consumption. This article takes this as the background, has made the detailed introduction to the inhabitant electric heating technology, and take the Zhangjiakou electric panels heating technology as an example, from the expense angle, has carried on the analysis to the electric panels heating economy. In the field of residential heating, electric panels operating costs less than gas boilers. After customers implying energy-saving behavior, electric panels operating cost is even lower than coal-fired boilers. The critical price is higher than the execution price, which indicates that the economic performance of the electric panels is significantly higher than that of the coal boiler.

  15. Load-shift incentives for household demand response: Evaluation of hourly dynamic pricing and rebate schemes in a wind-based electricity system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas; Møller Andersen, Frits; Morthorst, Poul Erik

    2016-01-01

    under scenarios with large shares of wind power in a Danish case study. Our results indicate strategies that could be favourable in ensuring high adoption of products and efficient response by households. We find that simple pricing schemes, though economically less efficient, could become important......Applying a partial equilibrium model of the electricity market we analyse effects of exposing household electricity customers to retail products with variable pricing. Both short-term and long-term effects of exposing customers to hourly spot market prices and a simpler rebate scheme are analysed...... in an early phase to initialise the development of household demand response. At a later point, when long-term dynamics take effect, a larger effort should be made to shift consumers onto real-time rates, and an increased focus on overall adoption of variable pricing will be required. Another finding...

  16. Loss Aversion and Time-Differentiated Electricity Pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spurlock, C. Anna [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-06-01

    I develop a model of loss aversion over electricity expenditure, from which I derive testable predictions for household electricity consumption while on combination time-of-use (TOU) and critical peak pricing (CPP) plans. Testing these predictions results in evidence consistent with loss aversion: (1) spillover effects - positive expenditure shocks resulted in significantly more peak consumption reduction for several weeks thereafter; and (2) clustering - disproportionate probability of consuming such that expenditure would be equal between the TOUCPP or standard flat-rate pricing structures. This behavior is inconsistent with a purely neoclassical utility model, and has important implications for application of time-differentiated electricity pricing.

  17. The electricity prices in the European Union. The role of renewable energies and regulatory electric market reforms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno, Blanca; López, Ana J.; García-Álvarez, María Teresa

    2012-01-01

    The European Union electricity market has been gradually liberalized since 1990s. Theoretically, competitive markets should lead to efficiency gains in the economy thus reducing electricity prices. However, there is a controversial debate about the real effects of the electricity liberalization on electricity prices. Moreover, the increased generation of electricity from renewable energies RES-E (Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources) is also integrated in wholesale market reducing wholesale prices, but the final effect over household prices is not clear. In order to contribute to this debate, this paper provides an empirical investigation into the electricity prices determinants. In fact we develop econometric panel models to explore the relationship between the household electricity prices and variables related to the renewable energy sources and the competition in generation electricity market. More specifically we use a panel data set provided by Eurostat and covering 27 European Union countries during the period 1998–2009. Our results suggest that electricity prices increase with the deployment of RES-E and with the expansion of greenhouse gas emissions produced by energy industries- as a European Union CO 2 emission trading scheme exists. Results also reveal that country's characteristics can affect household electricity prices. -- Highlights: ► Electricity liberalized markets should lead to reduce electricity prices. ► The use of renewable energies (RES) reduce wholesale electricity prices. ► However, household electricity prices are increasing in European Union. ► Panel data models are developed to investigate the effect of RES and electricity competition on household electricity prices. ► We find that the deployment of RES increases prices paid by consumers in a liberalized market.

  18. A forward look at power prices in Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid-Carlson, D.

    1999-01-01

    The various components of the price of electricity, various rate design methodologies, and factors that influence cost-of-service such as types of generation and fuel, age of the physical plant, size of utility, rate of customer and load growth, funding arrangements, tax status, customer mix, and load profile are examined in an effort to predict the future price of electricity in Alberta. The prediction is that delivered prices will increase across all sectors, albeit at levels less than the increase would be without competition. Alberta pool prices in the longer term will continue to reflect the marginal cost of the last generators dispatched to meet the demand. Convergence between electricity spot prices and natural gas prices is predicted to occur over time

  19. Reserve price: Lessons learned from Brazilian electricity procurement auctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rego, Erik Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    Auctions have been used in several formats in the electric energy industry. In general, regulators may be uncomfortable initiating a reverse auction at a higher-than-expected final price, fearing that participants may sell their energy at an excess profitability. Nevertheless, evidence from electricity procurement auctions conducted in Brazil supports the findings that these types of auctions have the opposite effect. By attracting a larger number of agents, these auctions can trigger stronger competition and lead to lower settlement pricing. Accordingly, the Brazilian cases examined in this article present significant evidence to support this directional theory. In fact, there are some cases of electricity procurement auctions that show that inadequate auction reserve pricing leads to inefficient outcomes and may also cause the auction to fail. On the other hand, auctions with adequate price caps have led to lower final clearing prices, thus contributing to reasonable final energy pricing. - Highlights: • Outcomes from Brazilian electricity procurement auctions were analyzed. • Cases of success and frustration after adopting (in)adequate reserve prices. • Setting different price caps per source is inefficient. • Higher-than-normal price cap is more effective than fine-tuning reserve prices

  20. NPP electrical price and tariff in the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mochamad Nasrullah and Sriyana

    2010-01-01

    Construction of a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is always become a controversial issue. Nuclear utility and other party which support the NPP present a calculation of NPP electricity cost too optimistic. However for utility and other party that contra to nuclear present a calculation of NPP electricity cost too pessimistic. This study present to reduce the controversy of nuclear cost. In this study, capital cost (Engineering Procurement Construction, EPC) was taken from Asian, America and Europe, operating and maintenance cost uses experience data of PLN, and nuclear fuel cost uses data year of 2008 with high price, low price and average price scenario. The methodological tools used to compare electricity generation cost was LEGECOST, a program developed by IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), while for electricity tariff- price calculation using a program developed by PLN research and development center. With the discount rate 10%, the result shows that the cheapest electricity generation cost of NPP is less than 40 mills/kWh, and average electricity tariff was 55 mills/kWh. In the Europe countries the electricity tariff more expensive than NPP in Asia. However generating cost and electricity tariff of NPP in United Stated of America (USA) less competitive because investment cost more expensive. Generating cost and electricity tariff was different at each country depend on salary, labor wage, materials price, construction specification, regulation related to NPP and environment aspect. (author)

  1. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  2. Regime Jumps in Electricity Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractElectricity prices are known to be very volatile and subject to frequent jumps due to system breakdown, demand shocks, and inelastic supply. As many international electricity markets are in some state of deregulation, more and more participants in these markets are exposed to these

  3. A Statistical Approach for Interval Forecasting of the Electricity Price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Jun Hua; Dong, Zhao Yang; Xu, Zhao

    2008-01-01

    the prediction interval is essential for estimating the uncertainty involved in the price and thus is highly useful for making generation bidding strategies and investment decisions. In this paper, a novel data mining-based approach is proposed to achieve two major objectives: 1) to accurately forecast the value......Electricity price forecasting is a difficult yet essential task for market participants in a deregulated electricity market. Rather than forecasting the value, market participants are sometimes more interested in forecasting the prediction interval of the electricity price. Forecasting...... of the electricity price series, which is widely accepted as a nonlinear time series; 2) to accurately estimate the prediction interval of the electricity price series. In the proposed approach, support vector machine (SVM) is employed to forecast the value of the price. To forecast the prediction interval, we...

  4. Distributional incidence of green electricity price subsidies in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Feng; Zhang, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Distributional incidences are fundamental to environmental and energy policies, a condition that has led to controversies on the equity of environmental and energy policy. Using data from China's Urban Household Income and Expenditure Survey data from 2007, this study quantified the distributional effects of the green electricity price subsidy policy among Chinese urban household and compared its effects by using lifetime income and annual income to classify households, respectively. The results show that total electricity subsidies are mainly driven by indirect electricity subsidies. By using lifetime income to classify households, subsidies to households in the poorest two groups accounted for less than 10.2% of the total subsidies, whereas money distributed to households in the top two deciles reached 35.4%. The comparison using annual income to group households also demonstrated the similar impact of the green electricity price subsidy policy. China’s future market reforms should allow electricity prices to reflect pollution abatement costs. Additionally, a multi-step block electricity price schedule can reduce the regressivity of the policy. - Highlights: • We quantified the distributional effects of the green electricity price subsidy. • The distributional effects of different income groups were compared. • The poorest two groups accounted for less than 10.2% of the total subsidies. • The green electricity price subsidy policy benefited the rich at household level.

  5. An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huan Kuo

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Electricity price is a key influencer in the electricity market. Electricity market trades by each participant are based on electricity price. The electricity price adjusted with the change in supply and demand relationship can reflect the real value of electricity in the transaction process. However, for the power generating party, bidding strategy determines the level of profit, and the accurate prediction of electricity price could make it possible to determine a more accurate bidding price. This cannot only reduce transaction risk, but also seize opportunities in the electricity market. In order to effectively estimate electricity price, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting system based on the combination of 2 deep neural networks, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM. In order to compare the overall performance of each algorithm, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root-Mean-Square error (RMSE evaluating measures were applied in the experiments of this paper. Experiment results show that compared with other traditional machine learning methods, the prediction performance of the estimating model proposed in this paper is proven to be the best. By combining the CNN and LSTM models, the feasibility and practicality of electricity price prediction is also confirmed in this paper.

  6. The effect of ethanol listing on corn prices: Evidence from spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Rıza; Kutan, Ali M.; Shen, Fanglin

    2012-01-01

    The use of corn for ethanol has been the topic of heated discussions in the media and among policy makers. As part of this debate, some observers have argued that the use of corn in the production of ethanol has had adverse effects on corn prices. This paper contributes to this reviving debate by examining the impact of the listing of ethanol futures in the Chicago Board of Trade on the spot and futures prices for corn. We find a significant listing effect, indicating that the listing of ethanol has had a positive contribution to both price and volatility in the corn market, especially in the spot and the shorter maturity futures contracts, and mostly through its interaction with trading volume in the corn market. We discuss the policy implications of the findings for investors and its relevance for the ongoing debate on US energy policy. We conclude with some suggestions for future research.

  7. Generation Companies’ Operative Strategies in the Spot Electricity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tovar-Hernández J.H.

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In traditional regulation the obligation to meet the consumer demand was assumed, this guaranteed to generation companies the full recovery of their costs. However, in order to achieve greater efficiency, reduce the price of electricity, meet the continuously growing electricity consumption, and equalize prices in different regions, a new structure of the electricity industry has been created, where electric energy is traded through a market. Generation company’s future cash flows depend on day to day market participation, in order to satisfy all of their financial and economic requirements. In this paper, future cash flows required to fulfill with economic and financial commitments by a generation company immerse in this new market structure are studied. For this purpose, future cash flows are considered to be dependent on a single asset: electricity. Several scenarios with different fuel prices are generated in order to estimate the generation company’s future cash flows. The response of the competing generation companies is taken into account at each scenario. The fuel price changes are modelled using a concurrent binary tree.

  8. Electricity prices in a competitive market: a preliminary analysis of the deregulated Thai electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pipattanasomporn, M.; Ongsakul, W.; Pacudan, R.; Lefevre, T.

    2000-01-01

    The electricity industry throughout the world is currently undergoing a significant transition towards restructuring and deregulation. Following this new legislation, Thailand has initiated an institutional and structural reform with a belief that this could be the best way forward for the Thai electricity supply industry (ESI) to improve efficiency, lower electricity prices, and tackle financial debts. This paper presents an analysis of the extent to which prices for generation services in a competitive market may differ from regulated electricity prices, if competitive prices are based on marginal costs and regulated prices are based on average costs, by using Thailand as a case study. (Author)

  9. Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

    In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

  10. Real-time pricing when some consumers resist in saving electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salies, Evens

    2013-01-01

    Successful real-time electricity pricing depends firstly upon consumers' willingness to subscribe to such terms and, secondly, on their ability to curb consumption levels. The present paper addresses both issues by considering consumers differentiated by their electricity saving costs, half of whom resist saving electricity. We demonstrate that when consumers are free to adopt real-time prices, producers prefer charging inefficient prices and, in so doing, discriminate against that portion of the consumer population which faces no saving costs. We also find that efficient marginal cost pricing is feasible, but is incompatible with mass adoption of real-time prices. - Highlights: • We model consumers switching from uniform to real-time electricity pricing (RTP). • Half the consumer population is pro-RTP and half resists saving electricity. • Efficient RTP is feasible but is incompatible with mass adoption

  11. Prices and tariffs in a liberalized electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rijkers, F.; Wals, A.; Battjes, C.; Scheepers, M.

    2000-01-01

    First, it is described how prices and tariffs were determined before the introduction of the liberalization. Next, a brief overview is given of the transfer to the liberalized market and how the situation is on this market at present. Special attention is paid to the pricing of electricity in a free market, which is determined by competition between electricity producers in the Netherlands and abroad. Finally, a comparison is made between the expected prices and tariffs in a liberalized market and the prices before the liberalization

  12. Strategic capacity withholding through failures in the German-Austrian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergler, Julian; Heim, Sven; Hüschelrath, Kai

    2017-01-01

    In electricity day-ahead markets organized as uniform price auction, a small reduction in supply in times of high demand can cause substantial increases in price. We use a unique data set of failures of generation capacity in the German-Austrian electricity market to investigate the relationship between electricity spot prices and generation failures. Differentiating between strategic and non-strategic failures, we find a positive impact of prices on non-usable marginal generation capacity for strategic failures only. Our empirical analysis therefore provides evidence for the existence of strategic capacity withholding through failures suggesting further monitoring efforts by public authorities to effectively reduce the likelihood of such abuses of a dominant position. - Highlights: • We investigate the relationship between electricity spot prices and generation failures. • Announced (non-strategic) failures are found to decrease with increasing price. • Unannounced (strategic) failures of marginal technologies increase with increasing price. • Our evidence is consistent with the presence of capacity withholding strategies in the German-Austrian electricity market.

  13. Electricity price and tariff problems and approaches to their solving

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piha, M.

    1994-01-01

    The following problems are discussed: (i) integrity of the tariff system, price setting and price control in relation to the secondary market; (ii) long-term contracting relations between the subjects - primary and secondary market entities; (iii) the setting of electricity purchase prices from independent producers; (iv) international integration of national systems, including electricity import prices; (v) cross-subsidies within the system; (vi) identification of adverse environmental impacts and their remediation by incorporating the associated costs into electricity prices; (vii) the cost basis of prices; (viii) objectivization of the cost basis; (ix) unification/diversification of the price and tariff levels and the associated distribution rent problem; (x) rational structure of the tariff system with respect to its complexity and ties to the measuring and control instrumentation and their efficiency; and (xi) breakdown of the costs of heat and electricity cogeneration and a fair price setting. (J.B.)

  14. The effect of electricity prices on industry in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roepenack, A. von

    1992-01-01

    The contribution gives a survey of the general consumption of electricity in the (former) Federal Republic of Germany from 1980 until 1990 and illustrates the effect of electricity prices on industry - safety of the site, competition, influences on prices for electricity, intensity of electricity, comparison to gross increase in value. In addition, the influence of politics on electricity prices is examined. Among other things, we owe the success of our industry on the international market to the increase in our use of electric power. This is the basis of our success in rationalization and our status on the world market. The dependency of industry and industrial products on this form of energy has increased and will continue to do so. Thus the politicians have little room to act if they do not want to influence industry in a negative way. On the basis of the situation described here, electricity prices which are competitive internationally are an essential prerequisite for the future of our economy. (orig./HSCH) [de

  15. Assessment of emission trading impacts on competitive electricity market price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, S.N.; Saxena, D.; Østergaard, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    analyzes the impact of electricity prices in the competitive electricity markets having a uniform market clearing price mechanism. Findings - It is found that the electricity prices depend on the system loading, generation mix, etc. at a particular hour. Various emission trading instruments are discussed...... side emission trading impact on electricity prices in the competitive power market. Design/methodology/approach - Various schemes are suggested and are being implemented to achieve this objective. It is expected that electricity price will increase due to imposition of emission taxes. This paper...... with a special emphasis on the European market. Research limitations/implications - Block bidding of the suppliers is considered whereas the demand is assumed to be inelastic. Originality/value - The emission trading impacts are analyzed on a simple example....

  16. CO2-emission trading and green markets for renewable electricity. WILMAR - deliverable 4.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azuma-Dicke, N.; Weber, C.; Morthorst, P.E.; Ravn, H.F.; Schmidt, R.

    2004-06-01

    This report is Deliverable 4.1 of the EU project 'Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets' (WILMAR) and de-scribes the application of two policy instruments, Tradable Emissions Permits (TEPs) and Tradable Green Certificates (TGCs) for electricity produced from renewable energy sources in the European Union and the implications for implementation in the Wilmar model. The introduction of a common emission-trading system in the EU is expected to have an upward effect on the spot prices at the electric-ity market. The variations of the spot price imply that some types of power generation may change the situation from earning money to losing money despite the increasing spot price. Heavy restrictions on emissions penalise the fossil-fuelled technologies significantly, and the associated increase in the spot price need not compensate for this. Therefore, a market of TEPs is expected to have a significant influence on the electricity spot price. However, the expected price level of TEPs are met with great uncertainty and a study of a number of economical studies shows a price span between zero and 270 USD per ton of CO 2 depending on the participation or non-participation of countries in the scheme. The price-determination at the TGC market is expected to be closely related to the price at the power spot market as the RE-producers of electricity will have expectations to the total price paid for the energy produced, i.e., for the price of electricity at the spot market plus the price per kWh obtained at the green certificate mar-ket. In the Wilmar model, the TGC market can either be handled exogenously, i.e., the increase in renewable capacity and an average annual TGC price are determined outside the model, or a simple TGC module is developed, including the long-term supply functions for the most relevant renewable technologies and an overall TGC quota. Both solutions are rather simple, but to develop a more advanced model for the TGC market seems to be

  17. A hybrid approach for probabilistic forecasting of electricity price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wan, Can; Xu, Zhao; Wang, Yelei

    2014-01-01

    to the nonstationarities involved in market clearing prices (MCPs), it is rather difficult to accurately predict MCPs in advance. The challenge is getting intensified as more and more renewable energy and other new technologies emerged in smart grids. Therefore transformation from traditional point forecasts...... electricity price forecasting is proposed in this paper. The effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method has been validated through comprehensive tests using real price data from Australian electricity market.......The electricity market plays a key role in realizing the economic prophecy of smart grids. Accurate and reliable electricity market price forecasting is essential to facilitate various decision making activities of market participants in the future smart grid environment. However, due...

  18. The Combination Forecasting of Electricity Price Based on Price Spikes Processing: A Case Study in South Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Electricity price forecasting holds very important position in the electricity market. Inaccurate price forecasting may cause energy waste and management chaos in the electricity market. However, electricity price forecasting has always been regarded as one of the largest challenges in the electricity market because it shows high volatility, which makes electricity price forecasting difficult. This paper proposes the use of artificial intelligence optimization combination forecasting models based on preprocessing data, called “chaos particles optimization (CPSO weight-determined combination models.” These models allow for the weight of the combined model to take values of [-1,1]. In the proposed models, the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN algorithm is used to identify outliers, and the outliers are replaced by a new data-produced linear interpolation function. The proposed CPSO weight-determined combination models are then used to forecast the projected future electricity price. In this case study, the electricity price data of South Australia are simulated. The results indicate that, while the weight of the combined model takes values of [-1,1], the proposed combination model can always provide adaptive, reliable, and comparatively accurate forecast results in comparison to traditional combination models.

  19. Nodal pricing in a coupled electricity market

    OpenAIRE

    Bjørndal, Endre; Bjørndal, Mette; Cai, Hong

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates a pricing model for an electricity market with a hybrid congestion management method, i.e. part of the system applies a nodal pricing scheme and the rest applies a zonal pricing scheme. The model clears the zonal and nodal pricing areas simultaneously. The nodal pricing area is affected by the changes in the zonal pricing area since it is directly connected to the zonal pricing area by commercial trading. The model is tested on a 13-node power system. Within the area t...

  20. Demand side management in recycling and electricity retail pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazan, Osman

    This dissertation addresses several problems from the recycling industry and electricity retail market. The first paper addresses a real-life scheduling problem faced by a national industrial recycling company. Based on their practices, a scheduling problem is defined, modeled, analyzed, and a solution is approximated efficiently. The recommended application is tested on the real-life data and randomly generated data. The scheduling improvements and the financial benefits are presented. The second problem is from electricity retail market. There are well-known patterns in daily usage in hours. These patterns change in shape and magnitude by seasons and days of the week. Generation costs are multiple times higher during the peak hours of the day. Yet most consumers purchase electricity at flat rates. This work explores analytic pricing tools to reduce peak load electricity demand for retailers. For that purpose, a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices is established based on two major components: unit generation costs and consumers' utility. Both are analyzed and estimated empirically in the third paper. A pricing model is introduced to maximize the electric retailer's profit. As a result, a closed-form expression for the optimal price vector is obtained. Possible scenarios are evaluated for consumers' utility distribution. For the general case, we provide a numerical solution methodology to obtain the optimal pricing scheme. The models recommended are tested under various scenarios that consider consumer segmentation and multiple pricing policies. The recommended model reduces the peak load significantly in most cases. Several utility companies offer hourly pricing to their customers. They determine prices using historical data of unit electricity cost over time. In this dissertation we develop a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices with parameter estimation. The last paper includes a regression analysis of the unit generation cost

  1. Spot market for uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colhoun, C.

    1982-01-01

    The spot market is always quoted for the price of uranium because little information is available about long-term contracts. A review of the development of spot market prices shows the same price curve swings that occur with all raw materials. Future long-term contracts will probably be lower to reflect spot market prices, which are currently in the real-value range of $30-$35. An upswing in the price of uranium could come in the next few months as utilities begin making purchases and trading from stockpiles. The US, unlike Europe and Japan, has already reached a supply and demand point where the spot market share is increasing. Forecasters cannot project the market price, they can only predict the presence of an oscillating spot or a secondary market. 5 figures

  2. Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloster, Kristian

    2003-01-01

    This thesis will describe a method for an arbitrage-free evaluation of forward and futures contracts in the Nordic electricity market. This is a market where it is not possible to hedge using the underlying asset which one normally would do. The electricity market is a relatively new market, and is less developed than the financial markets. The pricing of energy and energy derivatives are depending on factors like production, transport, storage etc. There are different approaches when pricing a forward contract in an energy market. With motivation from interest rate theory, one could model the forward prices directly in the risk neutral world. Another approach is to start out with a model for the spot prices in the physical world, and then derive theoretical forward prices, which then are fitted to observed forward prices. These and other approaches are described by Clewlow and Strickland in their book, Energy derivatives. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price, and then derive theoretical forward prices. I use a generalization of the multifactor Schwartz model with seasonal trends and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity. This continuous-time model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the multi-factor Schwartz model. Then one can specify arbitrage-free prices for forward and futures based on the Schwartz model. The result from this procedure is a joint spot and forward price model in both the risk neutral and physical market, together with knowledge of the equivalent martingale measure chosen by the market. This measure can be interpreted as the market price of risk, which is of interest for risk management. In this setup both futures and forward contracts will have the same pricing dynamics, as the only difference between the two types of contracts is how the payment for the

  3. Labor demand effects of rising electricity prices: Evidence for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, Michael; Peichl, Andreas; Pestel, Nico; Siegloch, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Germany continues to play a pioneering role in replacing conventional power plants with renewable energy sources. While this might be beneficial with respect to environmental quality, it also implies increasing electricity prices. The extent to which this is associated with negative impacts on employment depends on the interrelationship between labor and electricity as input factors in the production process. In this paper, we estimate cross-price elasticities between electricity and heterogeneous labor for the German manufacturing sector. We use administrative linked employer–employee micro-data combined with information on sector-level electricity prices and usage over the period 2003–2007. We find positive, but small conditional cross-price elasticities of labor demand with respect to electricity prices, which means that electricity as an input factor can be replaced by labor to a limited extent when the production level is held constant. In the case of adjustable output, we find negative unconditional cross-price elasticities, implying that higher electricity prices lead to output reductions and to lower labor demand, with low- and high-skilled workers being affected more than medium-skilled. Resulting adverse distributional effects and potential overall job losses may pose challenges for policy-makers in securing public support for the German energy turnaround. - Highlights: • We estimate cross-price elasticities for electricity and labor in manufacturing. • We use linked employer–employee micro-data from Germany for 2003 to 2007. • We find a weak substitutability between electricity and labor for constant output. • We find complementarity between electricity and labor for adjustable output. • Low- and high-skilled workers are more affected than medium-skilled

  4. Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbord, David William Cameron

    This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

  5. Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gareta, Raquel [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain); Romeo, Luis M. [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)]. E-mail: luismi@unizar.es; Gil, Antonia [Centro de Investigacion de Recursos y Consumos Energeticos (CIRCE), Universidad de Zaragoza, Centro Politecnico Superior, Maria de Luna, 3, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)

    2006-08-15

    During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools.

  6. Forecasting of electricity prices with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gareta, Raquel; Romeo, Luis M.; Gil, Antonia

    2006-01-01

    During recent years, the electricity energy market deregulation has led to a new free competition situation in Europe and other countries worldwide. Generators, distributors and qualified clients have some uncertainties about the future evolution of electricity markets. In consequence, feasibility studies of new generation plants, design of new systems and energy management optimization are frequently postponed. The ability of forecasting energy prices, for instance the electricity prices, would be highly appreciated in order to improve the profitability of utility investments. The development of new simulation techniques, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), has provided a good tool to forecast time series. In this paper, it is demonstrated that the Neural Network (NN) approach can be used to forecast short term hourly electricity pool prices (for the next day and two or three days after). The NN architecture and design for prices forecasting are described in this paper. The results are tested with extensive data sets, and good agreement is found between actual data and NN results. This methodology could help to improve power plant generation capacity management and, certainly, more profitable operation in daily energy pools

  7. Estimation of Iranian price elasticities of residential electricity demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study to determine demand for electricity in city of Yazd, Iran over the period of 1998-2008. Using vector error correction model (VECM based on seasonal information, the study determines that electricity has no elasticity in short term in household expenditure. Therefore, government policy on increasing price of electricity will not influence demand. However, electricity maintains elasticity over the long-term period and an increase on price of electricity could motivate consumers to reduce their consumption by purchasing energy efficient facilities. Therefore, any governmental strategy to increase price may have positive impact on economy. The study also detects a positive and meaningful relationship between temperature and electricity consumption.

  8. Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tashpulatov, Sherzod N.

    2013-01-01

    Price fluctuations that partially comove with demand are a specific feature inherent to liberalized electricity markets. The regulatory authority in Great Britain, however, believed that sometimes electricity prices were significantly higher than what was expected and, therefore, introduced price-cap regulation and divestment series. In this study, I analyze how the introduced institutional changes and regulatory reforms affected the dynamics of daily electricity prices in the England and Wales wholesale electricity market during 1990–2001. This research finds that the introduction of price-cap regulation did achieve the goal of lowering the price level at the cost of higher price volatility. Later, the first series of divestments is found to be successful at lowering price volatility, which however happens at the cost of a higher price level. Finally, this study also documents that the second series of divestments was more successful at lowering both the price level and volatility. - Author-Highlights: • The impact of regulation on the dynamics of electricity prices is examined. • Price-cap regulation has decreased the level at the cost of higher volatility. • The first series of divestments has reversed the trade-off. • The reversed trade-off is explained as an indication of tacit collusion. • The second series of divestments is found generally successful

  9. A robust multivariate long run analysis of European electricity prices

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Bosco; Lucia Parisio; Matteo Pelagatti; Fabio Baldi

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyses the interdependencies existing in wholesale electricity prices in six major European countries. The results of our robust multivariate long run dynamic analysis reveal the presence of four highly integrated central European markets (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria). The trend shared by these four electricity markets appears to be common also to gas prices, but not to oil prices. The existence of long term dynamics among electricity prices and between electrici...

  10. Forecasting Long-Run Electricity Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamm, Gregory; Borison, Adam

    2006-01-01

    Estimation of long-run electricity prices is extremely important but it is also very difficult because of the many uncertainties that will determine future prices, and because of the lack of sufficient historical and forwards data. The difficulty is compounded when forecasters ignore part of the available information or unnecessarily limit their thinking about the future. The authors present a practical approach that addresses these problems. (author)

  11. High Penetrated Wind Farm Impacts on the Electricity Price

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haji Bashi, Mazaher; Yousefi, G. R.; Bak, Claus Leth

    2016-01-01

    of the high penetrated wind farm integration into electricity markets. Then, stochastic programming approach is employed to compare the volume of trades for a typical wind farm in a high and low wind penetrated market. Although increasing price spikes and volatility was reported in the literature......Energy trading policies, intermittency of wind farm output power, low marginal cost of the production, are the key factors that cause the wind farms to be effective on the electricity price. In this paper, the Danish electricity market is studied as a part of Nord Pool. Considering the completely...... fossil fuel free overview in Danish energy policies, and the currently great share of wind power (more than 100% for some hours) in supplying the load, it is an interesting benchmark for the future electricity markets. Negative prices, price spikes, and price volatility are considered as the main effects...

  12. Did the expiration of retail price caps affect prices in the restructured Texas electricity market?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Linhong; Zarnikau, Jay

    2009-01-01

    On January 1, 2007, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) market became the first restructured market in the US to completely remove caps on the prices which could be charged to residential energy consumers by the retailers associated with the traditional or incumbent utility service providers. Our analysis suggests that the expiration of the price-to-beat (PTB) price caps may have led to a reduction in the average prices charged by competitive retail electric providers (REPs). (author)

  13. Crisis of prices in electrical sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This presentation shows the evolution of the electrical sector in Guatemala including prices, covering, market and current situation with the recent privatization of public enterprises with advantages to the consumers. Also discuss the effect of the new legislation with fiscal proposals that could produce prices distortion

  14. Pricing of electricity tariffs in competitive markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppo, J.; Raesaenen, M.

    1999-01-01

    In many countries electricity supply business has been opened for competition. In this paper we analyze the problem of pricing of electricity tariffs in these open markets, when both the customers' electricity consumption and the market price are stochastic processes. Specifically, we focus on regular tariff contracts which do not have explicit amounts of consumption units defined in the contracts. Therefore the valuation process of these contracts differs from the valuation of electricity futures and options. The results show that the more there is uncertainty about the customer's consumption, the higher the fixed charge of the tariff contract should be. Finally, we analyze the indication of our results to the different methods for estimating the customer's consumption in the competitive markets. Since the consumption uncertainties enter into the tariff prices, the analysis indicates that the deterministic standard load curves do not provide efficient methods for evaluating the customers' consumption in competitive markets

  15. Electricity prices in France: past trends and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-03-01

    At a time when the European Commission has published a complete report about energy prices in Europe, presenting their evolution during the past years, this article aims to recall the basic principles structuring the electricity bill in France, and to put the French electricity prices in their European context

  16. Electricity price and Southern California's water supply options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Larry [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Camilla Dunham Whitehead, Andre Fargeix, Golden Gate Economics, 1 Cycltron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2004-11-01

    This paper evaluates the impact of fluctuating electricity prices on the cost of five options to increase the water supply to urban areas in Southern California-new surface storage, water purchases, desalination, wastewater recycling, and conservation.We show that the price of electricity required to produce and transport water influences the cost of water supply options and may alter the decision makers economic ranking of these options. When electricity prices are low, water purchase is the cost effective option. When prices exceed US$ 86/MWh, conservation of electricity and water through installation of high efficiency clothes washers is the most effective option.

  17. Optimal Operation of Electric Vehicles in Competitive Electricity Markets and Its Impact on Distribution Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2011-01-01

    represent the future of electricity markets in some ways, is chosen as the studied power system in this paper. The impact of the optimal operation strategy for electric vehicles together with the optimal load response to spot market price on the distribution power system with high wind power penetrations...... are also discussed in the paper. Simulation results show that the proposed optimal operation strategy is an effective measure to achieve minimum energy costs of the PEV. The optimal operation strategy of the PEV and the optimal load response may have significant effects on the distribution power system......Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the electricity price could be transferred to the consumers and they may make some optimal charge and discharge schedules for their electric vehicles in order to minimize their energy costs. This paper presents an optimal...

  18. Electricity prices and fuel costs. Long-run relations and short-run dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammadi, Hassan

    2009-01-01

    The paper examines the long-run relation and short-run dynamics between electricity prices and three fossil fuel prices - coal, natural gas and crude oil - using annual data for the U.S. for 1960-2007. The results suggest (1) a stable long-run relation between real prices for electricity and coal (2) Bi-directional long-run causality between coal and electricity prices. (3) Insignificant long-run relations between electricity and crude oil and/or natural gas prices. And (4) no evidence of asymmetries in the adjustment of electricity prices to deviations from equilibrium. A number of implications are addressed. (author)

  19. Demand response in Indian electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Maere d'Aertrycke, Gauthier de; Smeers, Yves

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines a methodology for implementing cost of service regulation in retail market for electricity in India when wholesale market is liberalised and operates through an hourly spot market. As in a developing country context political considerations make tariff levels more important than supply security, satisfying the earmarked level of demand takes a back seat. Retail market regulators are often forced by politicians to keep the retail tariff at suboptimal level. This imposes budget constraint on distribution companies to procure electricity that it requires to meet the earmarked level of demand. This is the way demand response is introduced in the system and has its impact on spot market prices. We model such a situation of not being able to serve the earmarked demand as disutility to the regulator which has to be minimised and we compute associated equilibrium. This results in systematic mechanism for cutting loads. We find that even a small cut in ability of the distribution companies to procure electricity from the spot market has profound impact on the prices in the spot market. - Highlights: ► Modelling the impact of retail tariff in different states on spot prices of electricity in India. ► Retail tariffs are usually fixed below appropriate levels by states due to political reasons. ► Due to revenue constraint distribution utility withdraws demand from spot market in peak hours. ► This adversely affects the scarcity rent of generators and subsequently future investment. ► We show possibility of strategic behaviour among state level regulators in setting retail tariff.

  20. Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobinaite, Viktorija; Juozapaviciene, Aldona; Staniewski, Marcin; Szczepankowski, Piotr

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this article is to better understand the processes of electricity market price formation in Poland and Lithuania through an analysis of the features (volatility and spikes) of Lithuanian and Polish day-ahead electricity market prices and to assess how acquired electricity price features could affect the achievement of the main goals of the national energy policy. The following indicators have been calculated to determine electricity market price volatility: the oscillation coefficient, the coefficient of variation, an adjusted coefficient of variation, the standard deviation indicator, the daily velocity indicator (based on the overall average price) and the daily velocity indicator (based on the daily average price). Critical values for electricity market price have been calculated to evaluate price spikes. This analysis reveals that electricity market-price volatility is moderate in Poland and high in Lithuania. Electricity price spikes have been an observable phenomenon both in Lithuanian and in Polish day-ahead electricity markets, but they are more common in Lithuania, encompassing 3.15% of the time period analysed in Poland and 4.68% of the time period analysed in Lithuania. Volatile, spiking and increasing electricity prices in day-ahead electricity markets in Lithuania and Poland create preconditions and substantiate the relevance of implementation of the national energy policies and measures. - Highlights: • Moderate and seasonal volatility. • spiking market price and. • stable average price

  1. Market integration among electricity markets and their major fuel source markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mjelde, James W.; Bessler, David A.

    2009-01-01

    Dynamic price information flows among U.S. electricity wholesale spot prices and the prices of the major electricity generation fuel sources, natural gas, uranium, coal, and crude oil, are studied. Multivariate time series methods applied to weekly price data show that in contemporaneous time peak electricity prices move natural gas prices, which in turn influence crude oil. In the long run, price is discovered in the fuel sources market (except uranium), as these prices are weakly exogenous in a reduced rank regression representation of these energy prices.

  2. Basic Studies on Chaotic Characteristics of Electric Power Market Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeuchi, Yuya; Miyauchi, Hajime; Kita, Toshihiro

    Recently, deregulation and reform of electric power utilities have been progressing in many parts of the world. In Japan, partial deregulation has been started from generation sector since 1995 and partial deregulation of retail sector is executed through twice law revisions. Through the deregulation, because electric power is traded in the market and its price is always fluctuated, it is important for the electric power business to analyze and predict the price. Although the price data of the electric power market is time series data, it is not always proper to analyze by the linear model such as ARMA because the price sometimes changes suddenly. Therefore, in this paper, we apply the methods of chaotic time series analysis, one of non-linear analysis methods, and investigate the chaotic characteristics of the system price of JEPX.

  3. Electricity demand and spot price forecasting using evolutionary computation combined with chaotic nonlinear dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unsihuay-Vila, C.; Zambroni de Souza, A.C.; Marangon-Lima, J.W.; Balestrassi, P.P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a new hybrid approach based on nonlinear chaotic dynamics and evolutionary strategy to forecast electricity loads and prices. The main idea is to develop a new training or identification stage in a nonlinear chaotic dynamic based predictor. In the training stage five optimal parameters for a chaotic based predictor are searched through an optimization model based on evolutionary strategy. The objective function of the optimization model is the mismatch minimization between the multi-step-ahead forecasting of predictor and observed data such as it is done in identification problems. The first contribution of this paper is that the proposed approach is capable of capturing the complex dynamic of demand and price time series considered resulting in a more accuracy forecasting. The second contribution is that the proposed approach run on-line manner, i.e. the optimal set of parameters and prediction is executed automatically which can be used to prediction in real-time, it is an advantage in comparison with other models, where the choice of their input parameters are carried out off-line, following qualitative/experience-based recipes. A case study of load and price forecasting is presented using data from New England, Alberta, and Spain. A comparison with other methods such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) is shown. The results show that the proposed approach provides a more accurate and effective forecasting than ARIMA and ANN methods. (author)

  4. Regionally-varying and regionally-uniform electricity pricing policies compared across four usage categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Seong-Hoon; Kim, Taeyoung; Kim, Hyun Jae; Park, Kihyun; Roberts, Roland K.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of our research is to predict how electricity demand varies spatially between status quo regionally-uniform electricity pricing and hypothetical regionally-varying electricity pricing across usage categories. We summarize the empirical results of a case study of electricity demand in South Korea with three key findings and their related implications. First, the price elasticities of electricity demand differ across usage categories. Specifically, electricity demands for manufacturing and retail uses are price inelastic and close to unit elastic, respectively, while those for agricultural and residential uses are not statistically significant. This information is important in designing energy policy, because higher electricity prices could reduce electricity demands for manufacturing and retail uses, resulting in slower growth in those sectors. Second, spatial spillovers in electricity demand vary across uses. Understanding the spatial structure of electricity demand provides useful information to energy policy makers for anticipating changes in demand across regions via regionally-varying electricity pricing for different uses. Third, simulation results suggest that spatial variations among electricity demands by usage category under a regionally-varying electricity-pricing policy differ from those under a regionally-uniform electricity-pricing policy. Differences in spatial changes between the policies provide information for developing a realistic regionally-varying electricity-pricing policy according to usage category. - Highlights: • We compare regionally-varying and regionally-uniform electricity pricing policies. • We summarize empirical results of a case study of electricity demand in South Korea. • We confirm that spatial spillovers in electricity demands vary across different uses. • We find positive spatial spillovers in the manufacturing and residential sectors. • Our methods help policy makers evaluate regionally-varying pricing

  5. Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamil, Faisal, E-mail: fsljml@hotmail.com [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan); Ahmad, Eatzaz, E-mail: eatzaz@qau.edu.pk [School of Economics, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad (Pakistan)

    2011-09-15

    Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: > The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. > Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. > We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. > The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. > Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

  6. A counterfactual price analysis of British electricity privatisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Branston, J.R.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to challenge the widely held view that electricity privatisation in Great Britain (comprised of the markets of England and Wales, and Scotland) was beneficial simply because the price of electricity has subsequently fallen in real terms. This is carried out by comparing the electricity prices actually observed with those that might have been charged had the industry remained in public ownership. In order to do this the paper develops a counterfactual scenario for the likely decisions and effects of a publicly owned industry. This leads the paper to conclude that observed prices are indeed significantly higher than they would have been had privatisation not occurred. (author)

  7. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H. [OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, 12, boulevard des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  8. Carbon pricing, nuclear power and electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, R.; Keppler, J. H.

    2012-01-01

    In 2010, the NEA in conjunction with the International Energy Agency produced an analysis of the Projected Costs of Electricity for almost 200 power plants, covering nuclear, fossil fuel and renewable electricity generation. That analysis used lifetime costs to consider the merits of each technology. However, the lifetime cost analysis is less applicable in liberalised markets and does not look specifically at the viewpoint of the private investor. A follow-up NEA assessment of the competitiveness of nuclear energy against coal- and gas-fired generation under carbon pricing has considered just this question. The economic competition in electricity markets is today between nuclear energy and gas-fired power generation, with coal-fired power generation not being competitive as soon as even modest carbon pricing is introduced. Whether nuclear energy or natural gas comes out ahead in their competition depends on a number of assumptions, which, while all entirely reasonable, yield very different outcomes. The analysis in this study has been developed on the basis of daily data from European power markets over the last five-year period. Three different methodologies, a Profit Analysis looking at historic returns over the past five years, an Investment Analysis projecting the conditions of the past five years over the lifetime of plants and a Carbon Tax Analysis (differentiating the Investment Analysis for different carbon prices) look at the issue of competitiveness from different angles. They show that the competitiveness of nuclear energy depends on a number of variables which in different configurations determine whether electricity produced from nuclear power or from CCGTs generates higher profits for its investors. These are overnight costs, financing costs, gas prices, carbon prices, profit margins (or mark-ups), the amount of coal with carbon capture and electricity prices. This paper will present the outcomes of the analysis in the context of a liberalised

  9. Electricity pricing policy: A neo-institutional, developmental and cross-national policy design map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koundinya, Sridarshan Umesh

    This dissertation explores the role of ideas and ideology in the mental policy design maps of regulators in the US and in India. The research approach is to describe the regulatory design process in the history of the US electric industry from a neo-institutional and developmental perspective. And then to use the insights of such a study to suggest policy options to a sample of Indian experts. A regulatory process model explores the interactions among normative values, regulatory instruments and historical phases in policy design. A spectrum of seven regulatory instruments--subsidized rates, average cost pricing, marginal cost pricing, time-of-use pricing, ramsey pricing, incentive regulation and spot pricing is examined. A neo-institutional perspective characterizes the process of institutionalizing these regulatory instruments as a design process that infuses them with values beyond mere technical requirements. The process model includes normative values such as efficiency, fairness, free choice and political feasibility. These values arise from an analytical classification of various market metaphors debated in the history of economic thought. The theory of development and co-evolution applied to the history of electricity regulation yields a typology of evolutionary phases in the US. The typology describes hierarchically emergent relationships between supply and demand and among the normative values. The theory hypothesizes technologically contingent relationships between pricing policies and normative values in the historical phases of dependence (or rural), independence (or urban) and interdependence (or informational). The contents of this model are represented as related elements in a policy design map that simplifies the process of designing regulatory instruments in the US. This neo-institutional, developmental policy design map was used to design a survey instrument. The survey was conducted among electricity experts in India to test the hypothesized

  10. Efficient pricing and investment in electricity markets with intermittent resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chao, Hung-po

    2011-01-01

    Facing growing technological and environmental challenges, the electricity industry needs effective pricing mechanism to promote efficient risk management and investment decisions. In a restructured electricity market with competitive wholesale prices and traditionally regulated retail rates, however, there are technical and institutional barriers that prevent dynamic pricing with price responsive demand. In regions with limited energy storage capacity, intermittent renewable resources present special challenges. This could adversely affect the effectiveness of public policies causing inefficient investments in energy technologies. In this paper, we present an updated economic model of pricing and investment in restructured electricity market and use the model in a simulation study for an initial assessment of renewable energy strategy and alternative pricing mechanisms. A key objective of the study is to shed light on the policy issues so that effective decisions can be made to improve efficiency. - Highlights: → Renewable resources present special challenges in regions with limited energy storage capacity. → This paper presents an updated economic model of pricing and investment in restructured electricity market. → A simulation study assesses renewable energy strategy and alternative pricing mechanisms. → The study results inform policy decisions to improve efficient investments in energy technologies.

  11. Optimal scheduling for electric heat booster under day-ahead electricity and heat pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cai, Hanmin; You, Shi; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2017-01-01

    Multi-energy system (MES) operation calls for active management of flexible resources across energy sectors to improve efficiency and meet challenging environmental targets. Electric heat booster, a solution for Domestic Hot Water (DHW) preparation under Low-Temperature-District-Heating (LTDH......) context, is identified as one of aforementioned flexible resources for electricity and heat sectors. This paper extends the concept of optimal load scheduling under day-ahead pricing from electricity sector only to both electricity and heat sectors. A case study constructing day-ahead energy prices...

  12. Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijay Neupane

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.

  13. Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamil, Faisal; Ahmad, Eatzaz

    2011-01-01

    Cointegration and vector error correction modeling approaches are widely used in electricity demand analysis. The study rigorously examines the determinants of electricity demand at aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. In the backdrop of severe electricity shortages, our empirical findings give support to the existence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables and indicate that electricity demand is elastic in the long run to both income and price at aggregate level. At sectoral level, long-run income and price elasticity estimates follow this pattern except in agricultural sector, where electricity demand is found elastic to output but inelastic to electricity price. On the contrary, the coefficients for income and price are rather small and mostly insignificant in the short run. We employed temperature index, price of diesel oil and capital stock at aggregate and sectoral levels as exogenous variables. These variables account for most of the variations in electricity demand in the short run. It shows that mechanization of the economy significantly affect the electricity demand at macro level. Moreover, elastic electricity demand with respect to electricity price in most of the sectors implies that electricity price as a policy tool can be used for efficient use and conservation. - Highlights: → The study conducts analysis for aggregate and four sectors. → Sectoral analyses are for residential, commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. → We obtained higher positive income and negative price elasticity in the long run. → The higher price elasticity implies that price can be used as a policy tool. → Capital stock and temperature variables explain most of the short-run demand fluctuations.

  14. Ontario electricity outlook : smaller reserve margins and higher prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, C.; Kalevar, P.

    2002-01-01

    Privatization of Hydro One has been delayed, but this will not postpone the scheduled launch of restructuring the electricity markets in Ontario on May 1, 2002. The main concern of Ontario consumers is whether they will undergo an energy crisis such as the one experienced in California. A report released in February 2002 stated that electricity bills will be higher under the new electricity regime. It appears that electricity supply reserve margins will be tighter than originally thought, raising price volatility in the summer and fall. The authors claim that the chance for an energy crisis are low because of the added generating capacity. However, regardless of whether consumers sign a fixed term price contract with retailers, it is likely that electricity bills will be higher in 2002 and 2003. The Independent Electricity Market Operator (IMO) is assuring the public that the power generation resources currently available are sufficient to meet expected demand. However, in June through July, it is possible that reserves will fall short. It is also evident that charges for distribution, transmission and other services will be higher under the restructured system. Electricity bills are likely to be about 5 to 15 per cent higher in 2003 than they were before March 1, 2002. Higher prices might not last indefinitely. Initially, they will be used to pay off the debt, but competition and opportunities for profit should allow for greater efficiencies and innovation in Ontario's electricity system and prices could potentially fall lower than pre-deregulation prices. 1 tab., 3 figs

  15. Electricity Market Optimization of Heat Pump Portfolio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom S.

    2013-01-01

    We consider a portfolio of domestic heat pumps controlled by an aggregator. The aggregator is able to adjust the consumption of the heat pumps without affecting the comfort in the houses and uses this ability to shift the main consumption to hours with low electricity prices. Further......, the aggregator is able to place upward and downward regulating bids in the regulating power market based on the consumption flexibility. A simulation is carried out based on data from a Danish domestic heat pump project, historical spot prices, regulating power prices, and spot price predictions. The simulations...

  16. CO2 price dynamics. The implications of EU emissions trading for electricity prices and operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sijm, J.P.M.; Bakker, S.J.A.; Harmsen, H.W.; Lise, W.; Chen, Y.

    2006-07-01

    The experience with CO 2 trading and allowances prices in the last year is reviewed, with a focus on the factors influencing the price of electricity in EU countries. A statistical analysis investigates the relationship between the large increases in electricity prices experienced in 2005 and their relationship to CO 2 prices. In addition, a market simulation analysis using the COMPETES model is performed to assess the extent to which profit-maximizing generators, some of which possess market power, might pass on the opportunity cost of allowances to consumers. The paper concludes by reviewing possible options for policy makers to address the possible adverse implications of price increases caused by CO/sub 2/ trading.

  17. Measuring and testing natural gas and electricity markets volatility : evidence from Alberta's deregulated markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serletis, A.; Shahmoradi, A.

    2005-01-01

    A number of innovative methods for modelling spot wholesale electricity prices have recently been developed. However, these models have primarily used a univariate time series approach to the analysis of electricity prices. This paper specified and estimated a multivariate GARCH-M model of natural gas and electricity price changes and their volatilities, using data over the deregulated period between January 1996 to November 2004 from Alberta's spot power and natural gas markets. The primary objective of the model was to investigate the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices. It was noted that the model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for natural gas and electricity price changes, and also for the separate examination of the effects of the volatility of anticipated and unanticipated changes in natural gas and electricity prices. Section 2 of the paper provided a description of the model used to test for causality between natural gas and electricity price changes, while section 3 discussed the data and presented the empirical results. It was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality between natural gas and electricity price changes. However, neither anticipated nor unanticipated natural gas price volatility causes electricity price changes. Anticipated electricity price volatility has a causal effect on natural gas. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  18. Differential electricity pricing and energy efficiency in South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohler, Marcel

    2014-01-01

    By international standards the economy of South Africa is extremely energy intensive with only a few countries having higher intensities. SA's primary energy use per unit of GDP is amongst the highest in the world. The high energy and electricity intensity of the economy partly reflects SA's resource endowments (in particular the abundance of coal) but is also a function of the historical under-pricing of coal and electricity by the authorities. South African mining and industrial electricity efficiency is particularly concerning and considerably lower than the global average. This paper sets out to fill a significant gap in the South African energy literature by highlighting the importance of incorporating electricity demand factors as part of the country's energy policy and electricity planning horizon. The paper focuses its attention on modelling the electricity consumption of SA's industrial and mining sectors given these account for the lion's share of electricity demand. A differential electricity pricing policy which targets electricity intensive industrial and mining activities (as practised in China since 2004) is viewed by the author to be a superior policy to blanket electricity price increases administered by authorities in an effort to encourage electricity savings and improve energy efficiency in South Africa. - Highlights: • SA's primary energy use per unit of GDP is amongst the highest in the world. • SA industrial electricity efficiency is considerably lower than the global average. • A differential electricity pricing policy which targets electricity intensive activities. • Differential tariffs raise the cost of energy inefficiency and induces energy saving. • Highlights importance of energy demand modelling in electricity supply planning

  19. Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets

  20. The real-time price elasticity of electricity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lijesen, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    The real-time price elasticity of electricity contains important information on the demand response of consumers to the volatility of peak prices. Despite the importance, empirical estimates of the real-time elasticity are hardly available. This paper provides a quantification of the real-time

  1. Pricing Electric Power in the Czech Republic and in Selected Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Mazegue Pavelková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on state intervention in the pricing of electricity from renewable power sources in the Czech Republic when compared with the pricing in the Slovak Republic, Germany, France and Italy. In these countries the state intervention is implemented in different forms, but the critical part of the price is regulated everywhere by the state. The price of electricity is determined by its production costs, which depend on the source from which electricity is produced. The highest cost of electricity is required to generate renewable energy, particularly solar power, while the lowest costs of power are associated with its production by coal-fired and natural gas-fired thermal power plants. However, hydroelectric power plants attain clearly the lowest cost for generating electricity. State intervention includes supporting power generation from renewable power sources by guaranteeing purchase prices.

  2. Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong Yao; Wang Jianzhou; Jiang He; Wu Jie

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. → The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. → The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. → The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

  3. Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wang Jianzhou, E-mail: wjz@lzu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Jiang He; Wu Jie [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2011-08-15

    Highlights: {yields} The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. {yields} The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. {yields} The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. {yields} The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

  4. Locational price spreads and the pricing of contracts for difference. Evidence from the Nordic market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marckhoff, Jan; Wimschulte, Jens

    2009-01-01

    In electricity markets, not only does the risk of substantial price variations over time exist, but so does the risk of price variations over space, as prices between locations can differ due to transmission congestion. To manage this risk, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), i.e., forwards on the spread between a particular area price and the (unconstrained) system price, were introduced at the Scandinavian electricity exchange Nord Pool at the end of 2000. We empirically investigate the pricing of these CfDs over the period 2001 through 2006 and find that CfD prices contain significant risk premia. Their sign and magnitude, however, differ substantially between areas and delivery periods, because areas are subject to transmission congestion to a varying extent. While the relation between risk premia and time-to-maturity is not uniform for CfDs, there is a negative relation for implied area and system forwards, which can be explained by the relative hedging demand of market participants. In addition, we find that risk premia of CfDs and implied area forwards vary systematically with the variance and skewness of the underlying spot prices. This confirms both implications of the Bessembinder and Lemmon [Bessembinder, H., Lemmon, M.L., 2002. Equilibrium pricing and optimal hedging in electricity forward markets. Journal of Finance, 57, 1347-1382] model. (author)

  5. Gas and electricity price in the European Union in 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Jean-Philippe

    2012-11-01

    This document indicates and comments the evolution of gas and electricity prices in the different countries of the European Union. As far as natural gas is concerned, it outlines that taxes on gas are higher in Nordic countries, and that prices are increasing everywhere (for industry as well as for households). As far as electricity is concerned, price is rather cheap in France compared to the other countries. Graphs indicate the evolution of electricity prices between 2010 and 2011 in the different countries for industry and households. Even if a decrease has been noticed in some countries, the general trend is to an increase (between 5 and 10% in average)

  6. Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-04-07

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

  7. Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotton, Deborah; De Mello, Lurion

    2014-01-01

    Emissions trading schemes aim to reduce the emissions in certain pollutants using a market based scheme where participants can buy and sell permits for these emissions. This paper analyses the efficiency of the two largest schemes in Australia, the NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Trading Scheme, through their effect on the electricity prices from 2004 to 2010. We use a long run structural modelling technique for the first time on this market. It provides a practical long-run approach to structural relationships which enable the determination of the effectiveness of the theoretical expectations of these schemes. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis finds that both schemes' emissions prices have little effect on electricity prices. Generalised impulse response function analysis support this finding indicating that when shocks are applied to electricity by the two schemes it returns to equilibrium very quickly. This indicates that these schemes are not having the effect anticipated in their legislation. - Highlights: • We analyse two emissions trading schemes in Australia. • We test for their effect on wholesale electricity prices. • The test uses generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis. • The tests find long run relationship between the variables in both the samples. • The short run-dynamics indicate that they play a minimal role in electricity prices

  8. The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China—An application of a computable general equilibrium approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Ji Feng; Wang, Xin; Zhang, Ya Xiong; Kou, Qin

    2014-01-01

    We use a dynamic CGE model (SICGE) to assess the economic and climate impacts of emissions trading system (ETS) in China with a carbon price of 100 Yuan/ton CO2. A particular focus is given to the regulated electricity price regime, which is a major concern of electricity sector’s cost-effective participation in ETS in China. We found: (1) Carbon pricing is an effective policy for China to reduce CO 2 emissions. Total CO 2 emissions reduction ranges from 6.8% to 11.2% in short-term. (2) Rigid electricity price entails lower CO 2 emissions reduction but can be considered as a feasible starting point to introduce carbon pricing policies in short-term as long as governmental subsidies are given to electricity production. (3) In mid- and long-term, the efficient policy is to earmark carbon revenue with competitive electricity price. We propose to use carbon revenue to reduce consumption tax in the first year of the introduction of carbon price and to use the carbon revenue to reduce production tax in following years. - Highlights: • We use a CGE model to assess the impacts of carbon pricing in China. • We test different scenarios of carbon cost pass-through in electricity price. • Carbon pricing policy cost-efficiency is examined with double-dividend hypothesis

  9. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleten, S.-E.; Lemming, Jørgen Kjærgaard

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available...... to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted...

  10. EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marossy, Z.

    2007-01-01

    The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

  11. Estimating the price elasticity for demand for electricity by sector in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roula Inglesi-Lotz

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses electricity consumption patterns in South Africa in an attempt to understand and identify the roots of the current electricity crisis. This is done by investigating various economic sectors’ responses to price changes using panel data for the period 1993–2004. Positive and statistically significant price elasticities over this period were found for the transport (rail and commercial sectors while there are positive, but small and statistically insignificant responses to price changes in the agriculture and mining sectors. Only the industrial sector responded to changes in electricity prices according to theory, namely illustrating negative demand elasticities. This sector, however, dominates electricity consumption resulting in aggregate demand elasticities that are negative. These results explain, in part, the current electricity crisis. Given the historic low level of electricity prices in conjunction with, on the whole, a real price decline, i.e. price increases lower than the inflation rate; there was no major incentive to reduce electricity consumption and/or to be efficient. This result supports the notion that prices do have an important signalling effect in the economy. Hence, the electricity prices should be considered not only from an economic growth or social vantage point, but also from a supply and technocratic perspective, which includes environmental factors such as CO2-emissions. Prices should not be determined without considering the system-wide implications thereof.

  12. Controlling Electricity Consumption by Forecasting its Response to Varying Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corradi, Olivier; Ochsenfeld, Henning Peter; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-01-01

    electricity consumption using a one-way price signal. Estimation of the price-response is based on data measurable at grid level, removing the need to install sensors and communication devices between each individual consumer and the price-generating entity. An application for price-responsive heating systems......In a real-time electricity pricing context where consumers are sensitive to varying prices, having the ability to anticipate their response to a price change is valuable. This paper proposes models for the dynamics of such price-response, and shows how these dynamics can be used to control...... is studied based on real data, before conducting a control by price experiment using a mixture of real and synthetic data. With the control objective of following a constant consumption reference, peak heating consumption is reduced by nearly 5%, and 11% of the mean daily heating consumption is shifted....

  13. Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process and active learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Lin; Lou, Jianyong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel active learning model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. • Heteroscedastic Gaussian process that captures the local volatility of the electricity price. • Variational Bayesian learning that avoids over-fitting. • Active learning algorithm that reduces the computational efforts. - Abstract: Electricity price forecasting is essential for the market participants in their decision making. Nevertheless, the accuracy of such forecasting cannot be guaranteed due to the high variability of the price data. For this reason, in many cases, rather than merely point forecasting results, market participants are more interested in the probabilistic price forecasting results, i.e., the prediction intervals of the electricity price. Focusing on this issue, this paper proposes a new model for the probabilistic electricity price forecasting. This model is based on the active learning technique and the variational heteroscedastic Gaussian process (VHGP). It provides the heteroscedastic Gaussian prediction intervals, which effectively quantify the heteroscedastic uncertainties associated with the price data. Because the high computational effort of VHGP hinders its application to the large-scale electricity price forecasting tasks, we design an active learning algorithm to select a most informative training subset from the whole available training set. By constructing the forecasting model on this smaller subset, the computational efforts can be significantly reduced. In this way, the practical applicability of the proposed model is enhanced. The forecasting performance and the computational time of the proposed model are evaluated using the real-world electricity price data, which is obtained from the ANEM, PJM, and New England ISO

  14. Measuring and testing natural gas and electricity markets volatility : evidence from Alberta's deregulated markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, A.; Shahmoradi, A. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Dept. of Economics

    2005-03-01

    A number of innovative methods for modelling spot wholesale electricity prices have recently been developed. However, these models have primarily used a univariate time series approach to the analysis of electricity prices. This paper specified and estimated a multivariate GARCH-M model of natural gas and electricity price changes and their volatilities, using data over the deregulated period between January 1996 to November 2004 from Alberta's spot power and natural gas markets. The primary objective of the model was to investigate the relationship between electricity and natural gas prices. It was noted that the model allows for the possibilities of spillovers and asymmetries in the variance-covariance structure for natural gas and electricity price changes, and also for the separate examination of the effects of the volatility of anticipated and unanticipated changes in natural gas and electricity prices. Section 2 of the paper provided a description of the model used to test for causality between natural gas and electricity price changes, while section 3 discussed the data and presented the empirical results. It was concluded that there is a bidirectional causality between natural gas and electricity price changes. However, neither anticipated nor unanticipated natural gas price volatility causes electricity price changes. Anticipated electricity price volatility has a causal effect on natural gas. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  15. How electricity providers communicate price increases – A qualitative analysis of notification letters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pick, Doreén; Zielke, Stephan

    2015-01-01

    In several markets firms are required to explicitly announce price increases by sending customers notification letters. The purpose of this article is to analyze how electricity providers deal with such obligatory price increase communication and to provide a comprehensive overview of communicative arguments used by firms. Data is gathered through a content analysis of 97 price increase mailings. Findings show that electricity providers apply several price communication strategies while other promising strategies for customer retention are mostly ignored (i.e., those related to competitors, offerings and relationship benefits). Further, price increase communication differs between national and local firms. Local firms are more transparent in their price increase communication and refer even less often to offer and relationship benefits. Electricity firms have many options to improve the potential effects of price increase letters, such as referring to the future relationship. This is the first study which examines the content of price increase communication by firms. It structures price communication practices used by electricity providers, analyzes their empirical relevance, summarizes findings in five global propositions, and provides a detailed agenda for future research. Moreover, the study indicates several means for public policy organizations to offer regulations on the content of price increase notifications. - Highlights: • We examine 97 price increase letters from electricity providers in Germany. • We investigate the means how firms deal with price increase communications. • Electricity providers aim to hide price increases towards their customers. • Electricity providers only scarcely use benefit and relationship communication. • Price increase communication differs between types of providers as national firms are more professional.

  16. Bilateral electric energy contracts: return and risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gunn, Laura K.; Silva, Elisa B.; Correia, Paulo B. [State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). College of Mechanical Engineering

    2009-07-01

    In Brazil electricity is traded through three segments: the spot market that balances offer and demand, with prices calculated by a cost-based computational model; the regulated market , where prices are settled in public auctions, and the free market for bilateral contracts. As spot and regulated market prices are public information, a seller is able to calculate his opportunity price to trade a bilateral contract in the free market by using the non-arbitrage principle. Thus, the seller searches the price of a bilateral contract in the free market that balances his/her revenues with the value expected in case it were negotiated in the regulated and the spot market. Besides the expected revenue, the seller may also consider the CVaR to measure the risk of her/his bilateral contract in the free market. So this paper develops a binomial lattice approach to price bilateral contracts in the free market, considering the seller's opportunity of negotiations in both regulated and spot markets, and measuring the contract risk directly. (author)

  17. Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Deb, Sidart [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Asokkumar, Aarthi [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Hassanzadeh, Mohammad [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States); Aarabali, Amirsaman [LCG Consulting, Los Altos, CA (United States)

    2018-05-11

    Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low VRE levels will still achieve their intended objective in a high VRE future. We qualitatively describe how various decisions may change with higher shares of VRE and outline an analytical framework for quantitatively evaluating the impacts of VRE on long-lasting decisions. We then present results from detailed electricity market simulations with capacity expansion and unit commitment models for multiple regions of the U.S. for low and high VRE futures. We find a general decrease in average annual hourly wholesale energy prices with more VRE penetration, increased price volatility and frequency of very low-priced hours, and changing diurnal price patterns. Ancillary service prices rise substantially and peak net-load hours with high capacity value are shifted increasingly into the evening, particularly for high solar futures. While in this report we only highlight qualitatively the possible impact of these altered price patterns on other demand- and supply-side electric sector decisions, the core set of electricity market prices derived here provides a foundation for later planned quantitative evaluations of these decisions in low and high VRE futures.

  18. Impact of variable renewable production on electricity prices in Germany: a Markov switching model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin de Lagarde, Cyril; Lantz, Frederic

    2016-01-01

    This paper aims at assessing the impact of renewable energy sources (RES) production on electricity spot prices. To do so, we use a two-regime Markov Switching (MS) model, that enables to disentangle the so-called 'merit-order effect' due to wind and solar photovoltaic productions (used in relative share of the electricity demand), depending on the price being high or low. We find that there are effectively two distinct price regimes that are put to light thanks to an inverse hyperbolic sine transformation that allows to treat negative prices. We also show that these two regimes coincide quite well with two regimes for the electricity demand (load). Indeed, when demand is low, prices are low and the merit-order effect is lower than when prices are high, which is consistent with the fact that the inverse supply curve is convex (i.e. has increasing slope). To illustrate this, we computed the mean marginal effects of RES production and load. On average, an increase of 1 GW of wind will decrease the price in regime 1 (resp. 2) by 0.77 euro /MWh (resp. 1 euro /MWh). The influence of solar is slightly weaker, as an extra gigawatt lowers the price of 0.73 euro /MWh in period 1, and 0.96 euro /MWh in regime 2. On the contrary, if the demand increases by 1 GW in regime 1 (resp. 2), the price increases on average by 0.93 euro /MWh (resp. 1.18 euro /MWh). Although we made sure these marginal effects are significantly different from one another, they are much more variable than the estimated coefficients of the model. Also, note that these marginal effects are only valid inside each regime when there is no switching. The latter regime partly corresponds to the high load regime, at the exception of periods during which RES production is high. The impact on volatility could also be observed: the variance of the (transformed) price is higher during the high-price regime than in the low-price one. In addition to the switching of the coefficients, we allowed the probabilities of

  19. Short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market: A neural network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catalao, J.P.S.; Mariano, S.J.P.S.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Ferreira, L.A.F.M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a neural network approach for forecasting short-term electricity prices. Almost until the end of last century, electricity supply was considered a public service and any price forecasting which was undertaken tended to be over the longer term, concerning future fuel prices and technical improvements. Nowadays, short-term forecasts have become increasingly important since the rise of the competitive electricity markets. In this new competitive framework, short-term price forecasting is required by producers and consumers to derive their bidding strategies to the electricity market. Accurate forecasting tools are essential for producers to maximize their profits, avowing profit losses over the misjudgement of future price movements, and for consumers to maximize their utilities. A three-layered feedforward neural network, trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, is used for forecasting next-week electricity prices. We evaluate the accuracy of the price forecasting attained with the proposed neural network approach, reporting the results from the electricity markets of mainland Spain and California. (author)

  20. Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Lemming, Jacob

    2003-01-01

    We present and analyze a method for constructing approximated high-resolution forward price curves in electricity markets. Because a limited number of forward or futures contracts are traded in the market, only a limited picture of the theoretical continuous forward price curve is available to the analyst. Our method combines the information contained in observed bid and ask prices with information from the forecasts generated by bottom-up models. As an example, we use information concerning the shape of the seasonal variation from a bottom-up model to improve the forward price curve quoted on the Nordic power exchange

  1. The effects of utility DSM programs on electricity costs and prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirst, E.

    1991-11-01

    More and more US utilities are running more and larger demand-side management (DSM) programs. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of these programs raises difficult questions for utilities and their regulators. Should these programs aim to minimize the total cost of providing electric-energy services or should they minimize the price of electricity? This study offers quantitative estimates on the tradeoffs between total costs and electricity prices. This study uses a dynamic model to assess the effects of energy-efficiency programs on utility revenues, total resource costs, electricity prices, and electricity consumption for the period 1990 to 2010. These DSM programs are assessed under alternative scenarios. In these cases, fossil-fuel prices, load growth, the amount of excess capacity the utility has in 1990, planned retirements of power plants, the financial treatment of DSM programs, and the costs of energy- efficient programs vary. These analyses are conducted for three utilities: a ``base`` that is typical of US utilities; a ``surplus`` utility that has excess capacity, few planned retirements, and slow growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes; and a ``deficit`` utility that has little excess capacity, many planned retirements, and rapid growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes. 28 refs.

  2. Reliability of copper based alloys for electric resistance spot welding

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovicj, M.; Mihajlovicj, A.; Sherbedzhija, B.

    1977-01-01

    Durability of copper based alloys (B-5 and B-6) for electric resistance spot-welding was examined. The total amount of Be, Ni and Zr was up to 2 and 1 wt.% respectively. Good durability and satisfactory quality of welded spots were obtained in previous laboratory experiments carried out on the fixed spot-welding machine of an industrial type (only B-5 alloy was examined). Electrodes made of both B-5 and B-6 alloy were tested on spot-welding grips and fixed spot-welding machines in Tvornica automobila Sarajevo (TAS). The obtained results suggest that the durability of electrodes made of B-5 and B-6 alloys is more than twice better than of that used in TAS

  3. Electricity Prices, Large-Scale Renewable Integration, and Policy Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Kyritsis, Evangelos; Andersson, Jonas; Serletis, Apostolos

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the effects of intermittent solar and wind power generation on electricity price formation in Germany. We use daily data from 2010 to 2015, a period with profound modifications in the German electricity market, the most notable being the rapid integration of photovoltaic and wind power sources, as well as the phasing out of nuclear energy. In the context of a GARCH-in-Mean model, we show that both solar and wind power Granger cause electricity prices, that solar power ...

  4. Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.; Moezzi, M.; Bharvirkar, R.; Neenan, B.; Boisvert, R.; Cappers, P.; Pratt, D.

    2004-07-01

    There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource and are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.

  5. CO2 price dynamics. The implications of EU emissions trading for the price of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sijm, J.P.M.; Bakker, S.J.A.; Harmsen, H.W.; Lise, W.; Chen, Y.

    2005-09-01

    The present study analyses the relationship between EU emissions trading and power prices, notably the implications of free allocation of emissions allowances for the price of electricity in countries of North-western Europe. To study this impact, it uses a variety of analytical approaches, including interviews with stakeholders, empirical and statistical analyses, theoretical explorations, and analyses by means of the COMPETES model. The study shows that a significant part of the costs of freely allocated allowances is passed through to power price and discusses its implications in terms of higher electricity prices for consumers and windfall profits for producers. It concludes that free allocation of emission allowances is a highly questionable policy option for a variety of reasons and suggests that auctioning might offer a better perspective

  6. Electricity pricing and management systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sawal, D.M.; Bajapai, Ashok

    1997-01-01

    The installed capacity of power generation in India is at present 80,000 MW. Out of the total 5.79 lakh inhabitated villages in the country, 4.79 villages have been electrified so far. Total number of consumers of electricity are about 95 million in the country. For such a large country with population of over 900 million and area of 32.873 lakh sq. kms., the role of electricity pricing and management system of the power sector is of paramount importance

  7. Electric power prices, price control and competition on the European domestic electric power market. Stromtarife, Preisaufsicht und Wettbewerb im Europaeischen Binnenmarkt fuer Strom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weigt, N

    1993-01-01

    If one speaks of electric power prices and price control in the year 1992, this subject has a different dimension than it did two or three years ago, when the new federal rate scale for electric power (ETO Elt) was drawn up and put into practice. Since the beginning of this year, a draft for guidelines which was drawn up by the EC Commission exists which, going on the assumption that the European domestic electric power market will set an example, does away with territorial protection and in the name of third party access (TPA) allows for electric power-line transit, thus introducing at least partial competition to the electric power market. We no longer think in terms of closed systems with clear-cut responsibilities in regard to power supply, which form the basis for the laws on electric power prices, the cartel laws, the practices of the electric power control board and the cartel authorities. Thus, using the new federal rate scale for electric power and its principles as formulated in Article 1 as a point of departure, developments will go in the direction of a competitive system in accordance with the ideas of the EC Commission and German free-enterprise theoreticians, as laid down for example by the deregulation commission. Thus developments will lead us away from the status quo in the direction of possible reforms, if not to say revolutionary structural changes and the consequnces which they will bring for price and cartel laws. (orig.)

  8. Plant life extensions for German nuclear power plants? Controversial discussion on potential electricity price effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthes, Felix C.; Hermann, Hauke

    2009-06-01

    The discussions on electricity price effects in case of the plant life extension of German nuclear power plants covers the following topics: (1) Introduction and methodology. (2) Electricity generation in nuclear power plants and electricity price based on an empirical view: electricity generation in nuclear power plants and final consumption price for households and industry in the European Union; electricity generation in nuclear power plants and electricity wholesale price in case of low availability of nuclear power plants in Germany; comparison of electricity wholesale prices in Germany and France. (3) Model considerations in relation to electricity prices and nuclear phase-out. (4) Concluding considerations.

  9. Exploring the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices and identifying hot spots in Berlin’s residential property market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulen, Philipp an de; Mitze, Timo Friedel

    2014-01-01

    In this work, we use residual values obtained from an estimated hedonic pricing model to assess the role of district-level neighbourhood effects for the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices in Berlin between 2008 and 2013. By doing so, we also aim at identifying hot and cold spots ...... analysis (ESDA) toolbox, we finally pinpoint particular hot spots of the city’s residential property market associated with a significant spatial clustering of similar rental price values around individual observations....... proximity to the city centre compared to similar properties in Berlin’s periphery once we control for the properties’ physical characteristics. The observed temporal evolution of the rental price distribution between 2008 and 2013 thereby hints at an ongoing gentrification process in Germany’s capital...... associated with the current housing market boom. This visual impression is also confirmed by the application of quantile regressions for a correlation analysis between quality-adjusted rental price values and Berlin district-level characteristics obtained from the last census in 2011. Among other factors, we...

  10. Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Freitas, Carlos J. Pereira; Silva, Patrícia Pereira da

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas...

  11. The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inglesi-Lotz, R.

    2011-01-01

    In South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern. Additional to past problems, the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy. The disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation. To contribute to the recent electricity debate, this paper proposes a time-varying price elasticity of demand for electricity; the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years. The main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in South Africa during the period 1980-2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique, the Kalman filter. Apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption (-71.8% in the 1990s and -94.5% in the 2000s in average), our results conclude to an important finding: the higher the prices (for example in the 1980s) the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations. Thus, further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers, focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand-side management techniques or even turning to other sources of - cheaper - energy. - Highlights: → The price elasticity of South Africa's electricity demand (1980-2005) is examined. → The Kalman filter methodology is used to show elasticity changes over time. → Decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption over the years is found. → The higher the prices of electricity were, the higher the sensitivity of consumption. → If electricity prices increase, consumers will choose to consume more efficiently.

  12. The evolution of price elasticity of electricity demand in South Africa: A Kalman filter application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inglesi-Lotz, R., E-mail: roula.inglesi@up.ac.za [Department of Economics, EMS Building, University of Pretoria, Gauteng 0002 (South Africa)

    2011-06-15

    In South Africa, the electricity mismatch of supply and demand has been of major concern. Additional to past problems, the 2008 electricity crisis made the solution crucial after its damaging consequences to the economy. The disagreement on the need and consequences of the continuous electricity price hikes worsens the situation. To contribute to the recent electricity debate, this paper proposes a time-varying price elasticity of demand for electricity; the sensitivity of electricity consumption to price fluctuations changes throughout the years. The main purpose of this study is the estimation of the price elasticity of electricity in South Africa during the period 1980-2005 by employing an advanced econometric technique, the Kalman filter. Apart from the decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption (-71.8% in the 1990s and -94.5% in the 2000s in average), our results conclude to an important finding: the higher the prices (for example in the 1980s) the higher the sensitivity of consumers to price fluctuations. Thus, further increases of the electricity prices may lead to changes in the behaviour of electricity consumers, focusing their efforts on improving their efficiency levels by introducing demand-side management techniques or even turning to other sources of - cheaper - energy. - Highlights: > The price elasticity of South Africa's electricity demand (1980-2005) is examined. > The Kalman filter methodology is used to show elasticity changes over time. > Decreasing effect of electricity prices to consumption over the years is found. > The higher the prices of electricity were, the higher the sensitivity of consumption. > If electricity prices increase, consumers will choose to consume more efficiently.

  13. Proceedings: 1996 EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing: Managing the transition to market-based pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-03-01

    This report presents the proceedings from the EPRI conference on innovative approaches to electricity pricing. Topics discussed include: power transmission pricing; retail pricing; price risk management; new pricing paradigms; changes from cost-based to a market-based pricing scheme; ancillary services; retail market strategies; profitability; unbundling; and value added services. This is the leading abstract. Papers are processed separately for the databases

  14. The effects of utility DSM programs on electricity costs and prices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirst, E.

    1991-11-01

    More and more US utilities are running more and larger demand-side management (DSM) programs. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of these programs raises difficult questions for utilities and their regulators. Should these programs aim to minimize the total cost of providing electric-energy services or should they minimize the price of electricity This study offers quantitative estimates on the tradeoffs between total costs and electricity prices. This study uses a dynamic model to assess the effects of energy-efficiency programs on utility revenues, total resource costs, electricity prices, and electricity consumption for the period 1990 to 2010. These DSM programs are assessed under alternative scenarios. In these cases, fossil-fuel prices, load growth, the amount of excess capacity the utility has in 1990, planned retirements of power plants, the financial treatment of DSM programs, and the costs of energy- efficient programs vary. These analyses are conducted for three utilities: a base'' that is typical of US utilities; a surplus'' utility that has excess capacity, few planned retirements, and slow growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes; and a deficit'' utility that has little excess capacity, many planned retirements, and rapid growth in fossil-fuel prices and incomes. 28 refs.

  15. Trends in prices to commercial energy consumers in the competitive Texas electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarnikau, Jay; Fox, Marilyn; Smolen, Paul

    2007-01-01

    To date, the price of electricity to commercial or business energy consumers has generally increased at greater rates in the areas of Texas where retail competition has been introduced than in areas that do not enjoy competition. Trends in commercial competitive prices have largely mirrored trends in residential prices. Market restructuring has tended to increase the sensitivity of retail electricity prices to changes in the price of natural gas, the marginal fuel used for generation in Texas. Consequently, the rapid increases in the commodity price of natural gas following restructuring led to increases in competitive electric rates which exceeded the increases in areas not exposed to restructuring, where the fuel component of electric rates tend to reflect a weighted average of the utilities' fuel costs. There is some evidence that pricing behavior by competitive retailers changed when the retailers affiliated with the incumbent utilities were permitted some pricing flexibility, resulting in a reduction in prices. (author)

  16. Hourly Electricity Prices in Day-Ahead Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); C. Huurman; R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper focuses on the characteristics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets. In these markets, quotes for day-ahead delivery of electricity are submitted simultaneously for all hours in the next day. The same information set is used for quoting all hours of the day. The

  17. Electricity Futures Prices : Time Varying Sensitivity to Fundamentals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S-E. Fleten (Stein-Erik); R. Huisman (Ronald); M. Kilic (Mehtap); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); S. Westgaard (Sjur)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides insight in the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of prices of contracts for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the

  18. Quantifying price risk of electricity retailer based on CAPM and RAROC methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karandikar, R.G.; Khaparde, S.A.; Kulkarni, S.V.

    2007-01-01

    In restructured electricity markets, electricity retailers set up contracts with generation companies (GENCOs) and with end users to meet their load requirements at agreed upon tariff. The retailers invest consumer payments as capital in the volatile competitive market. In this paper, a model for quantifying price risk of electricity retailer is proposed. An IEEE 30 Bus test system is used to demonstrate the model. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is demonstrated to determine the retail electricity price for the end users. The factor Risk Adjusted Recovery on Capital (RAROC) is used to quantify the price risk involved. The methodology proposed in this paper can be used by retailer while submitting proposal for electricity tariff to the regulatory authority. (author)

  19. Quantifying price risk of electricity retailer based on CAPM and RAROC methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karandikar, R.G.; Khaparde, S.A.; Kulkarni, S.V. [Electrical Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai 400 076 (India)

    2007-12-15

    In restructured electricity markets, electricity retailers set up contracts with generation companies (GENCOs) and with end users to meet their load requirements at agreed upon tariff. The retailers invest consumer payments as capital in the volatile competitive market. In this paper, a model for quantifying price risk of electricity retailer is proposed. An IEEE 30 Bus test system is used to demonstrate the model. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is demonstrated to determine the retail electricity price for the end users. The factor Risk Adjusted Recovery on Capital (RAROC) is used to quantify the price risk involved. The methodology proposed in this paper can be used by retailer while submitting proposal for electricity tariff to the regulatory authority. (author)

  20. The challenge for gas: get price-competitive with coal-fired electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gill, Len

    1999-01-01

    The challenge for the gas industry is to become price competitive with coal-fired electricity if it wants a larger share of the energy market. Returning to the issue of greater use of gas for electricity generation, the author points out that although electricity prices were rising they were still below the point where gas-fired electricity generation was viable. Copyright (1999) The Australian Gas Journal

  1. ANALYSIS OF GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT FLUCTUATIONS AND ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION IN 2005- 2014. RESERVES FOR DECREASING ELECTRIC POWER PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suslov N. I.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this work we considered the trajectories of change in indicators characterizing the status of economics and power industry: gross regional product, electric power consumption, industrial production, energy prices and costs of delivering electric power to consumers in Russian regions for the last 10 years. Low global commodity prices and sanctions led to a sharp decrease of equipment import, which resulted in an acute problem of import substitution. The level of tariffs of natural monopolies is of great importance for industrial development. The goal of this work was to analyze possibilities for reducing electric power prices by changing the institutional and economic conditions of management. We analyzed not only the official information from Rosstat, but also government regulations, figures given in the official government publication «The Rossiyskaya Gazeta» as well as articles and interviews on economic problems of the electric power industry over the recent years published in «The Kommersant» newspaper. High tariffs of network marketing companies for electric energy transmission, state regulation of heating prices, financing the construction of new capacities by charging the payment in power provision contracts, high price of electric power of nuclear power plants lead to an annual increase in electric power prices for end users. In this work we considered possible solutions to limit the growth of electric power prices.

  2. Prices dip, activity increases in unrestricted uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    April's activity in the restricted uranium market fluctuated in the same range as that observed in March. At the same time, NUKEM detects a weakening of prices in the unrestricted market to $7.45-$7.65. Unrestricted buyers seem to have detected lower prices as well; much of the new demand noted this month emerged in the unrestricted segment of the market. With this issue, NUKEM inaugurates a new market statistic. To better follow developments in the conversion market, we will report a spot price range for conversion services. This price measure will be derived in a manner analogous to NUKEM's other spot market price ranges. We will continue to publish the current NUKEM price range for new contracts for a few months. If you wish to retain the old conversion contract price range in future editions, please contact our US office. Four deals for near term delivery occurred in the uranium market in April, resulting in spot market transaction volume of 2.5 million lbs U3O8 equivalent. In the first week, a US non-utility purchased a small quantity of enriched uranium product from an intermediary in a spot transaction representing about 75,000 lbs U3O8. The second week saw the stealthy purchase of Portland General Electric's inventory of natural and enriched uranium. The buyer of PGE's 1.1 million lbs U3O8 equivalent has achieved an unusual degree of anonymity. Also during the second week, a US utility bought a small quantity of enriched uranium containing less than 25,000 lbs natural U3O8 equivalent

  3. CO2-emission trading and green markets for renewable electricity. Wilmar - deliverable 4.1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azuma-Dicke, N.; Morthorst, Poul Erik; Ravn, H.F.

    2004-01-01

    This report is Deliverable 4.1 of the EU project “Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets” (WILMAR) and describes the application of two policy instruments, Tradable Emissions Permits (TEP’s) and Tradable Green Certificates (TGC’s) forelectricity produced from renewable energy...... sources in the European Union and the implications for implementation in the Wilmar model. The introduction of a common emission-trading system in the EU is expected to have an upward effect on the spot pricesat the electricity market. The variations of the spot price imply that some types of power...... generation may change the situation from earning money to losing money despite the increasing spot price. Heavy restrictions on emissions penalise thefossil-fuelled technologies significantly, and the associated increase in the spot price need not compensate for this. Therefore, a market of TEP’s is expected...

  4. Poverty and environmental impacts of electricity price reforms in Montenegro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Patricia; Klytchnikova, Irina; Radevic, Dragana

    2009-01-01

    The creation of the Energy Community of South Eastern Europe in 2005 committed countries in South Eastern Europe to liberalize their energy markets in accordance to EU regulations. The Government of Montenegro is thus in the process of reforming its energy sector, which includes an electricity tariff reform. This paper analyzes the environmental and social impacts of an increase in residential electricity tariffs contemplated - which is expected to range anywhere from 40 to over 100% increase. As this analysis shows, such a significant price rise will impose a heavy burden on the poor households and it may adversely affect the environment. In an ex ante investigation of the welfare impact of this price increase on households in Montenegro, we show that the anticipated price increase will result in a very significant increase in households' energy expenditures. A simulation of alternative policy measures analyzes the impact of different tariff levels and structures, focusing on the poor and vulnerable households. Higher electricity prices could also significantly increase the proportion of households using fuelwood for space heating. Thus the level of fuelwood consumption should be carefully monitored under the electricity tariff reforms and the Government of Montenegro should combine the tariff reforms with a carefully evaluated set of policy measures to mitigate the effect of the electricity price increase on the poor. (author)

  5. Poverty and environmental impacts of electricity price reforms in Montenegro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Patricia [Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Studiestraede 6, DK-1455 Copenhagen K (Denmark); Klytchnikova, Irina [The World Bank, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Department (ECSPE) (United States); Radevic, Dragana [Center for Entrepreneurship and Economic Development (ME)

    2009-03-15

    The creation of the Energy Community of South Eastern Europe in 2005 committed countries in South Eastern Europe to liberalize their energy markets in accordance to EU regulations. The Government of Montenegro is thus in the process of reforming its energy sector, which includes an electricity tariff reform. This paper analyzes the environmental and social impacts of an increase in residential electricity tariffs contemplated - which is expected to range anywhere from 40 to over 100% increase. As this analysis shows, such a significant price rise will impose a heavy burden on the poor households and it may adversely affect the environment. In an ex ante investigation of the welfare impact of this price increase on households in Montenegro, we show that the anticipated price increase will result in a very significant increase in households' energy expenditures. A simulation of alternative policy measures analyzes the impact of different tariff levels and structures, focusing on the poor and vulnerable households. Higher electricity prices could also significantly increase the proportion of households using fuelwood for space heating. Thus the level of fuelwood consumption should be carefully monitored under the electricity tariff reforms and the Government of Montenegro should combine the tariff reforms with a carefully evaluated set of policy measures to mitigate the effect of the electricity price increase on the poor. (author)

  6. Rent dissipation through electricity prices of publicly owned utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, J-T.; Roland, M.

    1997-01-01

    Pricing policies of Canadian public utilities were examined. It was shown that under the existing set of rules the prices established are frequently below the marginal cost. This appears to be particularly true in the case of provinces that rely principally on hydroelectric resources. Study recommendations to bring electricity prices in line with marginal costs have had little success to date despite overwhelming evidence of large economic losses associated with the current institutional arrangements. This situation remains at the same time that governments apply high tax rates on incomes. By putting together two strands of economic literature, public choice and the theory of public utility pricing, this paper develops a simple model that explains why the median consumer prefers a low electricity price and a high tax rate. Hydro-Quebec survey data is used to confirm that these conditions are satisfied in Quebec. 17 refs., 1 tab

  7. Demonstration Project. Consumer reactions to peak prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindskoug, Stefan

    2006-06-01

    The purpose and aim of the project is to look at the risk of capacity shortage in the Swedish electricity supply system during excessively cold periods of weather. A risk that has increased in recent years. A growing number of analysts emphasize the importance of high spot prices actually leading to a reduction in demand. Through increased consumer sensitivity as regards pricing, the power system can be run safely with smaller generation reserves. In addition, market price fluctuation is estimated to become more stable and predictable. The purpose of the Demonstration Project is to demonstrate methods or business concepts that lead to the demand for electricity on a national level being reduced at times of high spot prices. The need for the measures to be profitable for the parties involved is an important starting point. A general problem associated with research and development projects is that the participants feel selected and special attention is paid them, hence they will make an extra effort to improve the results. We were aware of this fact when setting up the trials, which is why we introduced the trials as an offer from the electricity supplier to take part in a commercial assessment using a new price list. For this reason we concealed the marked research aim with Elforsk as a backer. Evaluating the results of questionnaires and detailed interviews does not give cause to suppose the results are in any way affected by such conditions. The conclusion of this project is that controlling load at the customer end is an economic alternative to the investment of new production resources

  8. Energy prices in the EU: France is less expensive for electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-12-01

    This article proposes a comparison of electricity and gas prices among the European Union countries in 2008. It outlines that the price of electricity in France is among the cheapest, that taxes are higher in northern European countries as far as electricity is concerned, that the price of gas in France is in the average and that taxing in Europe is less for gas than for electricity. The existence of carbon taxes or climate-energy contributions in some countries is briefly presented (in Sweden since 1991, in Denmark since 1992, in Finland since 1994, in Slovenia since 1997 and in Great-Britain since 2001)

  9. EU emission trading scheme and the effect on the price of electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The Electricity Market Working Group and the Climate Change Policy Working Group of the Nordic Council of Ministers, has commissioned ECON Analysis to prepare this report. The report analyses the demand and supply of GHG emission allowances and the price of emission allowances for the period 2005-2007 and 2008-2012 and the effect on the electricity price in the Nordic electricity market. The demand for emissions allowances has then been estimated for different scenarios, with different assumption on burden sharing between sectors and international participation and the supply of emission allowances is determined by the marginal abatement costs. Based on available information on abatement costs the supply of allowances is then estimated. The market balance between the demand and supply for allowances then determines the price of emission allowances. The effect on the electricity price is simulated with ECON's model for the Nordic power market to quantitatively estimate the effect from emissions trading on the electricity price, production, consumption, trade, etc. (BA)

  10. A Regional Time-of-Use Electricity Price Based Optimal Charging Strategy for Electrical Vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available With the popularization of electric vehicles (EVs, the out-of-order charging behaviors of large numbers of EVs will bring new challenges to the safe and economic operation of power systems. This paper studies an optimal charging strategy for EVs. For that a typical urban zone is divided into four regions, a regional time-of-use (RTOU electricity price model is proposed to guide EVs when and where to charge considering spatial and temporal characteristics. In light of the elastic coefficient, the user response to the RTOU electricity price is analyzed, and also a bilayer optimization charging strategy including regional-layer and node-layer models is suggested to schedule the EVs. On the one hand, the regional layer model is designed to coordinate the EVs located in different time and space. On the other hand, the node layer model is built to schedule the EVs to charge in certain nodes. According to the simulations of an IEEE 33-bus distribution network, the performance of the proposed optimal charging strategy is verified. The results demonstrate that the proposed bilayer optimization strategy can effectively decrease the charging cost of users, mitigate the peak-valley load difference and the network loss. Besides, the RTOU electricity price shows better performance than the time-of-use (TOU electricity price.

  11. Pricing Electricity in Pools With Wind Producers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales González, Juan Miguel; Conejo, A. J.; Kai Liu

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers an electricity pool that includes a significant number of wind producers and is cleared through a network-constrained auction, one day in advance and on an hourly basis. The hourly auction is formulated as a two-stage stochastic programming problem, where the first stage...... represents the clearing of the market and the second stage models the system operation under a number of plausible wind production realizations. This formulation co-optimizes energy and reserve, and allows deriving both pool energy prices and balancing energy prices. These prices result in both cost recovery...... for producers and revenue reconciliation. A case study of realistic size is used to illustrate the functioning of the proposed pricing scheme....

  12. Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Koekebakker, Steen

    2008-01-01

    We discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets. These forward/futures type contracts deliver (either physically or financially) electricity over a specified time period, and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price. We propose to use the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined in these markets. For general stochastic dynamical models, we connect the spot price, the instantaneous-delivery forward price and the swap price, and analyze two different ways to apply the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to swap pricing: Either one specifies a dynamics for the non-existing instantaneous-delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics, or one models directly on the swaps. The former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price, even when the forward dynamics is simple. The latter has some theoretical problems due to a no-arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery periods. To overcome this problem, a practical modeling approach is analyzed. The market is supposed only to consist of non-overlapping swaps, and these are modelled directly. A thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from Nord Pool. Our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes, however, this is an area of further research. (author)

  13. Seasonal variation of prices of sugar cane, ethanol and electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melo, Carmem Ozana de; Silva, Gerson Henrique da; Bueno, Osmar de Carvalho; Esperancini, Maura Seiko Tsutsui

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal price of sugar cane, fuel alcohol (hydrated and anhydrous) and electricity tariffs as a way of aiding tool for optimization of energy generation, using biomass originating from cane sugar. Using the method of moving average centered was concluded that cane and electricity rates were close to seasonal average, with low range of prices, suggesting the non-occurrence of seasonal variation in prices. Unlike the seasonal indices of ethanol showed seasonal variation of prices with greater amplitude of seasonal index. Thus, the results suggest that the utilization of by-products of sugar cane to produce electrical power points to the prospect of reducing risks associated with variations in the price of ethanol, thereby contributing to greater stability and possibility to those involved in planning alcohol sector. (author)

  14. Electricity transmission pricing. How contracts must reflect costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuttleworth, G.

    1996-01-01

    Two basic structures of transmission systems are distinguished: transmission channels offered through an integrated electric utility and open access offered over an independent network. The first structure allows the application of 'top-down pricing', where transmission prices are derived from customer tariffs less avoidable generation costs. Transmission prices in the second structure must be derived from a 'bottom-up' analysis of transmission costs, including building capacity, marginal losses, and congestion. 5 refs

  15. An analysis of the impact of Renewable Portfolio Standards on residential electricity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Andrew James

    A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) has become a popular policy for states seeking to increase the amount of renewable energy generated for consumers of electricity. The success of these state programs has prompted debate about the viability of a national RPS. The impact that these state level policies have had on the price consumers pay for electricity is the subject of some debate. Several federal organizations have conducted studies of the impact that a national RPS would have on electricity prices paid by consumers. NREL and US EIA utilize models that analyze the inputs in electricity generation to examine the future price impact of changes to electricity generation and show marginal increases in prices paid by end users. Other empirical research has produced similar results, showing that the existence of an RPS increases the price of electricity. These studies miss important aspects of RPS policies that may change how we view these price increases from RPS policies. By examining the previous empirical research on RPS policies, this study seeks to identify the controls necessary to build an effective model. These controls are utilized in a fixed effects model that seeks to show how the controls and variables of interest impact electricity prices paid by residential consumers of electricity. This study utilizes a panel data set from 1990 to 2014 to analyze the impact of these policies controlling for generating capacity, the regulatory status of utilities in each state, demographic characteristics of the states, and fuel prices. The results of the regressions indicate that prices are likely to be higher in states that have an RPS compared to states that do not have such a policy. Several of the characteristics mentioned above have price impacts, and so discussing RPS policies in the context of other factors that contribute to electricity prices is essential. In particular, the regulatory status of utilities in each state is an important determinate of price as

  16. Combined natural gas and electricity network pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morais, M.S.; Marangon Lima, J.W. [Universidade Federal de Itajuba, Rua Dr. Daniel de Carvalho, no. 296, Passa Quatro, Minas Gerais, CEP 37460-000 (Brazil)

    2007-04-15

    The introduction of competition to electricity generation and commercialization has been the main focus of many restructuring experiences around the world. The open access to the transmission network and a fair regulated tariff have been the keystones for the development of the electricity market. Parallel to the electricity industry, the natural gas business has great interaction with the electricity market in terms of fuel consumption and energy conversion. Given that the transmission and distribution monopolistic activities are very similar to the natural gas transportation through pipelines, economic regulation related to the natural gas network should be coherent with the transmission counterpart. This paper shows the application of the main wheeling charge methods, such as MW/gas-mile, invested related asset cost (IRAC) and Aumman-Shapley allocation, to both transmission and gas network. Stead-state equations are developed to adequate the various pricing methods. Some examples clarify the results, in terms of investments for thermal generation plants and end consumers, when combined pricing methods are used for transmission and gas networks. The paper also shows that the synergies between gas and electricity industry should be adequately considered, otherwise wrong economic signals are sent to the market players. (author)

  17. The case for indexed price caps for U.S. electric utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowry, M.N.

    1991-01-01

    Indexed price caps are a promising alternative to traditional, cost-of-service utility rate regulation. In just a decade, they have sprung from the drawing boards of economists to use by major utilities in a number of industries. Several authors have discussed the merits of indexed price caps for U.S. electric utilities. Despite their efforts, many parties to electric utility policy making are unfamiliar with the subject. This is unsurprising given the policy controversies that already embroil the industry. It is also unfortunate, since indexed price caps may help solve some of the problems that prompt these controversies. Indexed price caps can improve electric utility rate regulation in two ways. Utilities would have strong incentives to improve performance without the micromanagement that increasingly characterizes state-level regulation. Utilities could also be granted more extensive marketing freedoms, since indexes can protect customers from cross-subsidization. Two areas of concern about indexed price cap plans have emerged in recent discussions that the author has held with officials of electric utilities, intervenor groups, and regulatory agencies. Officials are often unclear on plan details, and therefore may not appreciate the degree of flexibility that is possible in plan design. Confusion over the available options in price cap adjustment indexes and the logic behind them is especially widespread. Officials also desire a clearer expression of how indexed price caps can coexist with current regulatory initiatives. This article details the major attributes of index plans, provides a brief history of indexing, discusses index design options in depth, and concludes with a vision of how indexed price caps can be made operational in today's electric utility industry

  18. Price elasticity estimation of electricity demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourbonnais, Regis; Keppler, Jan Horst

    2013-10-01

    On request of the French Union of Electricity (UFE), the authors have carried out a series of econometric statistical tests in order to determine the price elasticity of electricity demand in France. The results obtained are all solid and realistic

  19. Pricing of Fluctuations in Electricity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Tsitsiklis, John N.; Xu, Yunjian

    2012-01-01

    In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability of demand on conventional thermal generating units. We address this issue by explicitly modeling the ancillary cost associated with demand variability. We argue that a time-varying price equal to the suppliers' instantaneous marginal cost may not achieve s...

  20. Electricity-price arbitrage with plug-in hybrid electric vehicle: Gain or loss?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shang, Duo; Sun, Guodong

    2016-01-01

    Customers, utilities, and society can gain many benefits from distributed energy resources (DERs), including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Using battery on PHEV to arbitrage electricity price is one of the potential benefits to PHEV owners. There is, however, disagreement on the magnitude of such profit. This study uses a stochastic optimization model to estimate the potential profit from electricity price arbitrage of two types of PHEVs (PHEV-10, and PHEV-40) under three scenarios with variant electricity tariff and PHEV owners over a five-year period. The simulation results indicate that under current market structure, even with significant improvement in battery technologies (e.g., higher efficiency, lower cost), the PHEV owners can't achieve a positive arbitrage profit. This finding implies that expected arbitrage profit solely is not a viable option to engage PHEVs larger adoption. Subsidy and combining PHEV arbitraging with alternative PHEV services are required. - Highlights: •A stochastic optimization model is proposed to assess the arbitrage value of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV). •Under current market condition, PHEV owners lose money from conducting PHEV arbitrage if counting battery degradation cost. •PHEV owner loses more money at real time pricing (RTP) than at time of use (TOU) scheme. •Battery improvement will reduce but can't even the arbitrage loss. •Expected arbitrage profit is not a viable option to engage PHEVs in dispatching and in providing ancillary services.

  1. Electricity pricing and load dispatching in deregulated electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geerli; Niioka, S.; Yokoyama, R.

    2003-01-01

    A rapid move to a market-based electric power industry will significantly alter the structure of electricity pricing and system operation. In this paper, we consider a game of negotiation in the electricity market, involving electric utilities, independent power producers (IPPs) and large-scale customers. We analyze the two-level game strategies for the negotiation process between utilities, IPPs and customers. These have been previously recognized as a way to come up with a rational decision for competitive markets, in which players intend to maximize their own profits. The derived operation rules based on competition can be viewed as an extension of the conventional equal incremental cost method for the deregulated power system. The proposed approach was applied to several systems to verify its effectiveness. (Author)

  2. Excessive price reduction and extreme volatility in wind dominant electricity markets; solutions and emerging challenges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe; Mousavi, Omid Alizadeh

    2013-01-01

    High intermittency in the nature of wind power emphasize conceptual revising in the mechanisms of electricity markets with high wind power penetration levels. This paper introduces overmuch price reduction and high price volatility as two adverse consequences in future wind dominant electricity...... is developed. The paper indicates discriminatory pricing approach can be beneficial in high penetration of wind power because it alleviates high price variations and spikiness in one hand and prevents overmuch price reduction in wind dominant electricity markets on the other hand....... markets. While high price volatility imposes elevated risk levels for both electricity suppliers and consumers, excessive price reduction of electricity is a disincentive for investment in new generation capacity and might jeopardizes system adequacy in long term. A comparative study between marginal...

  3. The relationship between electricity consumption, electricity prices and GDP in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamil, Faisal; Ahmad, Eatzaz

    2010-01-01

    This study analyzes the relationship among electricity consumption, its price and real GDP at the aggregate and sectoral level in Pakistan. Using annual data for the period 1960-2008, the study finds the presence of unidirectional causality from real economic activity to electricity consumption. In particular, growth in output in commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors tend to increase electricity consumption, while in residential sector, growth in private expenditures is the cause of rising electricity consumption. The study concludes that electricity production and management needs to be better integrated with overall economic planning exercises. This is essential to avoid electricity shortfalls and unplanned load shedding.

  4. Wind energy and electricity prices. Exploring the 'merit order effect'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morthost, P.E.; Ray, S.; Munksgaard, J.; Sinner, A.F.

    2010-04-01

    This report focuses on the effect of wind energy on the electricity price in the power market. As the report will discuss, adding wind into the power mix has a significant influence on the resulting price of electricity, the so called merit order effect (MOE). The merit order effect has been quantified and discussed in many scientific publications. This report ends the first phase of a study on the MOE, evaluating the impact of EWEA's 2020 scenarios on future European electricity prices. The basic principles of the merit order effect are provided in the first part of the document. The literature review itself contains methods and tools not only to quantify the merit order effect but also in order to forecast its future range and volume.

  5. Electricity market price spike analysis by a hybrid data model and feature selection technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2010-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, energy price forecasting is an important activity for both suppliers and consumers. For this reason, many techniques have been proposed to predict electricity market prices in the recent years. However, electricity price is a complex volatile signal owning many spikes. Most of electricity price forecast techniques focus on the normal price prediction, while price spike forecast is a different and more complex prediction process. Price spike forecasting has two main aspects: prediction of price spike occurrence and value. In this paper, a novel technique for price spike occurrence prediction is presented composed of a new hybrid data model, a novel feature selection technique and an efficient forecast engine. The hybrid data model includes both wavelet and time domain variables as well as calendar indicators, comprising a large candidate input set. The set is refined by the proposed feature selection technique evaluating both relevancy and redundancy of the candidate inputs. The forecast engine is a probabilistic neural network, which are fed by the selected candidate inputs of the feature selection technique and predict price spike occurrence. The efficiency of the whole proposed method for price spike occurrence forecasting is evaluated by means of real data from the Queensland and PJM electricity markets. (author)

  6. On the electrification of road transport - Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiss, Martin; Patel, Martin K.; Junginger, Martin; Perujo, Adolfo; Bonnel, Pierre; Grootveld, Geert van

    2012-01-01

    Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are currently more expensive than conventional passenger cars but may become cheaper due to technological learning. Here, we obtain insight into the prospects of future price decline by establishing ex-post learning rates for HEVs and ex-ante price forecasts for HEVs and BEVs. Since 1997, HEVs have shown a robust decline in their price and price differential at learning rates of 7±2% and 23±5%, respectively. By 2010, HEVs were only 31±22 € 2010 kW −1 more expensive than conventional cars. Mass-produced BEVs are currently introduced into the market at prices of 479±171 € 2010 kW −1 , which is 285±213 € 2010 kW −1 and 316±209 € 2010 kW −1 more expensive than HEVs and conventional cars. Our forecast suggests that price breakeven with these vehicles may only be achieved by 2026 and 2032, when 50 and 80 million BEVs, respectively, would have been produced worldwide. We estimate that BEVs may require until then global learning investments of 100–150 billion € which is less than the global subsidies for fossil fuel consumption paid in 2009. These findings suggest that HEVs, including plug-in HEVs, could become the dominant vehicle technology in the next two decades, while BEVs may require long-term policy support. - Highlights: ► Learning rates for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles. ► Prices and price differentials of hybrid-electric vehicles show a robust decline. ► Battery-electric vehicles may require policy support for decades.

  7. On the electricity shortage, price and electricity theft nexus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamil, Faisal

    2013-01-01

    Pakistan is facing severe electricity shortfall of its history since 2006. Several measures have been implemented in order to mitigate electricity shortage. The focus has been on raising the installed capacity of electricity generation and transmission. The present policy results in expensive thermal electricity generation mostly using expensive and environmentally hazardous furnace oil and inability of utilities to recover their cost of supply although there is unprecedented rise in electricity tariffs. This study concentrates on the electricity demand and traces the relationship between electricity shortfalls, tariff rate and electricity theft in the background of recent electricity crisis using the data for the period 1985–2010. We employed the Granger causality test through error correction model and out-of-sample causality through variance decomposition method. Empirical evidence shows that electricity theft greatly influences electricity shortfalls through lowering investment and inefficient use of electricity. The study concludes that electricity crisis cannot be handled without combating rampant electricity theft in the country. - Highlights: ► The study investigates relationship among electricity outages, price and electricity theft. ► It employed Johansen approach, ECM and variance decomposition analysis. ► Empirical evidence shows that electricity theft causes outages and rising tariff rates. ► Variance decomposition analysis results are slightly different from ECM

  8. The Impact of Intermittent Renewable Production and Market Coupling on the Convergence of French and German Electricity Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keppler, Jan Horst; Le Pen, Yannick; Phan, Sebastien; Boureau, Charlotte

    2014-10-01

    constitutes such an event. However, also wind production is highly auto-correlated and tends to have a significant impact during a limited number of hours during the year. When the production of variable renewables with low variable costs is high, German exports tend to saturate interconnections thus causing price convergence to cease and French-German electricity prices to diverge. The primary objective of this article is to assess the impact of electricity production from variable renewables on the differential of French and German day-ahead electricity prices on the basis of five years of hourly price data in the EPEX Spot day-ahead market as well as hourly data of nuclear, wind and solar production. In addition, this article explores also the continuing impact of market coupling by confronting this empirical assessment of the Franco-German day-ahead market in the presence of the existing market coupling with a counter-factual scenario that assesses the evolution of the spread between French and German electricity prices with the observed levels of renewable production but under the assumption of the absence of market-coupling. By determining the difference in consumer surplus between the observed and the counter-factual scenario we measure in fact the benefit of market coupling and are able to show that market coupling mechanism mitigated the negative impact of the massive build-up on renewable capacity in Germany on price spreads and consumer surplus since 2011. This article thus assesses both the impact of both, electricity production by variable renewable energies and of market coupling on price spreads, consumer surplus and welfare. The structure of the article is as follow. Section 2 provides some general background and a review of the literature. Section 3 presents a number of descriptive statistics about the evolution of the French-German price spread before and after market coupling. Section 4 presents the available data and introduces the ELIX concept. Section 5

  9. Wealth Transfers from Implementing Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Borenstein, Severin

    2005-01-01

    Adoption of real-time electricity pricing %u2014 retail prices that vary hourly to reflect changing wholesale prices %u2014 removes existing cross-subsidies to those customers that consume disproportionately more when wholesale prices are highest. If their losses are substantial, these customers are likely to oppose RTP initiatives unless there is a supplemental program to offset their loss. Using data on a random sample of 636 industrial and commercial customers in southern California, I sho...

  10. Aggregators’ Optimal Bidding Strategy in Sequential Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Spot Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolin Ayón

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probabilistic optimization method that produces optimal bidding curves to be submitted by an aggregator to the day-ahead electricity market and the intraday market, considering the flexible demand of his customers (based in time dependent resources such as batteries and shiftable demand and taking into account the possible imbalance costs as well as the uncertainty of forecasts (market prices, demand, and renewable energy sources (RES generation. The optimization strategy aims to minimize the total cost of the traded energy over a whole day, taking into account the intertemporal constraints. The proposed formulation leads to the solution of different linear optimization problems, following the natural temporal sequence of electricity spot markets. Intertemporal constraints regarding time dependent resources are fulfilled through a scheduling process performed after the day-ahead market clearing. Each of the different problems is of moderate dimension and requires short computation times. The benefits of the proposed strategy are assessed comparing the payments done by an aggregator over a sample period of one year following different deterministic and probabilistic strategies. Results show that probabilistic strategy reports better benefits for aggregators participating in power markets.

  11. The price of electric power in EU region decreased in 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolttola, L.

    2000-01-01

    The price of both household and industrial electric power decreased in EU region during 1998. The price of industrial power decreased by more than 3% and that of households by 0.5%. According to the Eurostat the price of industrial power decreased most in Germany and in Lisbon in Portugal. In the statistics Germany has been divided into several sub-areas. In most of these areas the price decrease was more than 10%. The price of the electric power increased e.g. in London and Birmingham in UK. The price of the electric power consumed by households decreased significantly in Athens (Greece), in Finland and Portugal, and they increased most in the Netherlands and in Leipzig in Germany. The price of industrial electric power is cheapest in Sweden being only about 0.21 FIM (0.035) per kWh, and in Finland the price in the beginning of 1999 was 0.26 FIM (0.0431) per kWh. The price of industrial electric power was highest in Germany and Italy. VAT is not included in the prices used in the survey of industrial electric power. The power consumption of the plants used in the comparison is 2.0 million kWh, the maximum power 500 kW and the maximum operation time 4000 h/a. The price of electric power for households in Greece, there it is cheapest, was under 0.4 FIM (0.07) per kWh. The data of Greece is collected from Athens. In Finland the price of domestic power was second lowest, being less than 0.5 FIM/kWh. The prices in Italy and Denmark were highest in the EU region. The households selected to the survey use 3500 kWh of power annually, 1300 kWh of which is consumed in the night. All the taxes, also VAT, have been included in the price. In 1998 half of the power (52%) was generated by traditional thermal power. The share of nuclear power was 34% and that of hydroelectric power and others 14%. The others group include also the wind power. In 1998 the consumption of thermal power increased by 5%, as well as the consumption of hydroelectric power and other, while the generation

  12. Transmission pricing and stranded costs in the electric power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumol, W.J.; Sidak, J.G.

    1995-09-01

    Stranded costs are those costs that electric utilities are currently permitted to recover through their rates but whose recovery may be impeded or prevented by the advent of competition in the industry. Estimates of these costs run from the tens to the hundreds of billions of dollars. Should regulators permit utilities to recover stranded costs while they take steps to promote competition in the electric power industry. William Baumol and J. Gregory Sidak argue that answer to that question should be yes.The authors show that a transmission price, the price for sending electricity over the transmission grid, can be determined in a manner that is compatible with economic efficiency and clearly neutral in its effects upon all competitors in electricity generation. A correctly constructed regime of transmission pricing may in fact achieve the efficiency and equity goals that justify the recovery of stranded costs

  13. Topics on Electricity Transmission Pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerndal, Mette

    2000-02-01

    Within the last decade we have experienced deregulation of several industries, such as airlines, telecommunications and the electric utility industry, the last-mentioned being the focus of this work. Both the telecommunications and the electricity sector depend on network facilities, some of which are still considered as natural monopolies. In these industries, open network access is regarded as crucial in order to achieve the gains from increased competition, and transmission tariffs are important in implementing this. Based on the Energy Act that was introduced in 1991, Norway was among the first countries to restructure its electricity sector. On the supply side there are a large number of competing firms, almost exclusively hydro plants, with a combined capacity of about 23000 MW, producing 105-125 TWh per year, depending on the availability of water. Hydro plants are characterized by low variable costs of operation, however since water may be stored in dams, water has an opportunity cost, generally known as the water value, which is the shadow price of water when solving the generator's inter temporal profit maximization problem. Water values are the main factor of the producers' short run marginal cost. Total consumption amounts to 112-117 TWh a year, and consumers, even households, may choose their electricity supplier independent of the local distributor to which the customer is connected. In fact, approximately 10% of the households have actually changed supplier. The web-site www.konkurransetilsynet.no indicates available contracts, and www.dinside.no provides an ''energy-calculator'' where one can check whether it is profitable to switch supplier. If a customer buys energy from a remote supplier, the local distributor only provides transportation facilities for the energy and is compensated accordingly. Transmission and distribution have remained monopolized and regulated by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy

  14. Topics in Electricity Transmission Pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerndal, Mette

    2000-02-01

    Within the last decade we have experienced deregulation of several industries, such as airlines, telecommunications and the electric utility industry, the last-mentioned being the focus of this work. Both the telecommunications and the electricity sector depend on network facilities, some of which are still considered as natural monopolies. In these industries, open network access is regarded as crucial in order to achieve the gains from increased competition, and transmission tariffs are important in implementing this. Based on the Energy Act that was introduced in 1991, Norway was among the first countries to restructure its electricity sector. On the supply side there are a large number of competing firms, almost exclusively hydro plants, with a combined capacity of about 23000 MW, producing 105-125 TWh per year, depending on the availability of water. Hydro plants are characterized by low variable costs of operation, however since water may be stored in dams, water has an opportunity cost, generally known as the water value, which is the shadow price of water when solving the generator's inter temporal profit maximization problem. Water values are the main factor of the producers' short run marginal cost. Total consumption amounts to 112-117 TWh a year, and consumers, even households, may choose their electricity supplier independent of the local distributor to which the customer is connected. In fact, approximately 10% of the households have actually changed supplier. The web-site www.konkurransetilsynet.no indicates available contracts, and www.dinside.no provides an ''energy-calculator'' where one can check whether it is profitable to switch supplier. If a customer buys energy from a remote supplier, the local distributor only provides transportation facilities for the energy and is compensated accordingly. Transmission and distribution have remained monopolized and regulated by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy

  15. Topics on Electricity Transmission Pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerndal, Mette

    2000-02-01

    Within the last decade we have experienced deregulation of several industries, such as airlines, telecommunications and the electric utility industry, the last-mentioned being the focus of this work. Both the telecommunications and the electricity sector depend on network facilities, some of which are still considered as natural monopolies. In these industries, open network access is regarded as crucial in order to achieve the gains from increased competition, and transmission tariffs are important in implementing this. Based on the Energy Act that was introduced in 1991, Norway was among the first countries to restructure its electricity sector. On the supply side there are a large number of competing firms, almost exclusively hydro plants, with a combined capacity of about 23000 MW, producing 105-125 TWh per year, depending on the availability of water. Hydro plants are characterized by low variable costs of operation, however since water may be stored in dams, water has an opportunity cost, generally known as the water value, which is the shadow price of water when solving the generator's inter temporal profit maximization problem. Water values are the main factor of the producers' short run marginal cost. Total consumption amounts to 112-117 TWh a year, and consumers, even households, may choose their electricity supplier independent of the local distributor to which the customer is connected. In fact, approximately 10% of the households have actually changed supplier. The web-site www.konkurransetilsynet.no indicates available contracts, and www.dinside.no provides an ''energy-calculator'' where one can check whether it is profitable to switch supplier. If a customer buys energy from a remote supplier, the local distributor only provides transportation facilities for the energy and is compensated accordingly. Transmission and distribution have remained monopolized and regulated by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). To prevent cross

  16. Simultaneous day-ahead forecasting of electricity price and load in smart grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shayeghi, H.; Ghasemi, A.; Moradzadeh, M.; Nooshyar, M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • This paper presents a novel MIMO-based support vector machine for forecasting. • Considered uncertainties for better simulation for filtering in input data. • Used LSSVM technique for learning. • Proposed a new modification for standard artificial bee colony algorithm to optimize LSSVM engine. - Abstract: In smart grids, customers are promoted to change their energy consumption patterns by electricity prices. In fact, in this environment, the electricity price and load consumption are highly corrected such that the market participants will have complex model in their decisions to maximize their profit. Although the available forecasting mythologies perform well in electricity market by way of little or no load and price interdependencies, but cannot capture load and price dynamics if they exist. To overcome this shortage, a Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) model is presented which can consider the correlation between electricity price and load. The proposed model consists of three components known as a Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT) to make valuable subsets, Generalized Mutual Information (GMI) to select best input candidate and Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) based on MIMO model, called LSSVM-MIMO, to make simultaneous load and price forecasts. Moreover, the LSSVM-MIMO parameters are optimized by a novel Quasi-Oppositional Artificial Bee Colony (QOABC) algorithm. Some forecasting indices based on error factor are considered to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. Simulations carried out on New York Independent System Operator, New South Wales (NSW) and PJM electricity markets data, and showing that the proposed hybrid algorithm has good potential for simultaneous forecasting of electricity price and load

  17. Price-structure of electricity and district-heating. A background study for energy conservation programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The present report deals with the pricing and price-structure of electricity and district-heating with their effects on energy saving. It constitutes part of the groundwork for the new Government Energy Conservation Programme. The report describes principles for the pricing of electricity and district-heating in Finland, and gives some examples of tariffs in foreign countries, which are interesting from the point of view of energy saving. Different utilities apply quite similar pricing principles but there are big differences in price levels between the utilities. The difference in consumer prices can be almost 100 % in the case of electricity and over 150 % as concerns district-heating. The change in retail prices in the last ten years has not had a big general impact on the consumption of electricity or on energy saving. On the other hand, when the price increases of individual utilities are studied, the impact on energy saving at least in the short term can be seen. It seems that an increase of the fixed charges in relation to energy rates has been as a general trend after 1990. To promote energy saving the changing energy rates should be given special emphasis in determining electricity and district-heating tariffs. The opening of the electricity market means that the electricity suppliers face a new situation also when pricing their products. Customers and their expectations will play an increasingly role. (orig.)

  18. The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wimschulte, Jens [University of Regensburg (Germany)

    2010-08-15

    This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results. (author)

  19. The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wimschulte, Jens

    2010-01-01

    This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results. (author)

  20. Comparison of power exchanges. Liquidity and prices in spot transactions; Stromboersen im Vergleich. Liquiditaet und Preise im Spothandel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simon, Manuel

    2012-07-01

    The liberalization of the world's electricity markets in the past 20 years provided new challenges for operators of power distribution systems as well as producers: Especially in Europe, the integration of renewable energy sources is another challenge. The increasing importance of wind energy, solar energy and hydro power as a CO{sub 2} free energy source raises the question which market design is the best for the description of the constant fluctuations of these energy sources. As a result of liberalization, two market models are distinguished: the stock market model and the pool model. The author of the contribution under consideration analyzes empirically the power exchanges EEX (European energy Exchange, Leipzig, Federal Republic of Germany), Nordpool (Lysaker, Norway) and PJM (Norristown, Pennsylvania, USA). The parameters are determined which significantly affect the prices and the liquidity in the spot market.

  1. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  2. Tax shift : eliminating subsidies and moving to full cost electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibbons, J.

    2008-01-01

    In order to ensure that Ontario's service needs are met at the lowest possible total cost, energy conservation and small-scale distributed generation options must be able to compete with large scale-centralized generation and transmission options on a level playing field. This report discussed how electricity is priced in Ontario. The report described the policies that subsidize coal and nuclear generation and promote excessive consumption of grid-supplied electricity. The report also presented an analysis of the impact of these subsidies and policies on Ontario's electricity consumption, electricity productivity, standard of living and air pollutant emissions. It described a practical strategy whereby these subsidies can be eliminated by recycling or shifting the monies currently spent on subsidies in a way that creates an incentive to reduce electricity consumption. It also described how full cost pricing could lead to a net financial benefit for residential customers as well as an adaptation strategy for businesses that would ensure that they remain competitive. Finally the report identified ten major subsidies that artificially reduce the cost of electricity in Ontario. These included below-market water royalty rates; corporate income tax revenue subsidy for nuclear debt; sales tax exemption; average cost pricing; and bulk metering. It was concluded that phasing out the subsidies for grid-supplied electricity and moving to full cost pricing will provide multiple benefits for Ontario. 36 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs

  3. Impacts of High Variable Renewable Energy Futures on Wholesale Electricity Prices, and on Electric-Sector Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Seel, J; Mills, AD; Wiser, RH

    2018-01-01

    Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) can affect wholesale electricity price patterns and make them meaningfully different from past, traditional price patterns. Many long-lasting decisions for supply- and demand-side electricity infrastructure and programs are based on historical observations or assume a business-as-usual future with low shares of VRE. Our motivating question is whether certain electric-sector decisions that are made based on assumptions reflecting low V...

  4. Cross subsidy removal in electricity pricing in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, Ranajoy; Ganguly, Amrita

    2017-01-01

    In India electricity price for agriculture is cross subsidized by the industries. The Indian government has started a process through which the extent of cross subsidization is gradually being reduced. The idea is to replace the cross subsidization by 2030 and introduce a rate structure that will increase with the amount of electricity usage. This paper uses the Computable General Equilibrium framework to evaluate the ex-ante impact of these policy changes on the Indian economy. The paper finds that removal of cross subsidies will increase inflation particularly food inflation resulting in a decline in household incomes more so in rural areas. Replacing cross subsidies with a progressive rate structure will compensate for only a small part of the negative effects of the removal of cross subsidies. Four other policy options are also investigated targeting household incomes, food inflation and general inflation. Most of these options do not work as the required increase in budget deficit is unlikely to be bearable to the government. The only feasible option appears to be a direct price subsidy to agricultural sector: in this case food prices are held down, inflation is moderate and effect on household incomes is minimal. - Highlights: • Removal of cross subsidies in electricity sector will increase inflation in India. • Different policy options are investigated targeting household incomes, food inflation and general inflation. • Feasible option appears to be a direct price subsidy to agricultural sector.

  5. Do Canadian electricity prices reflect costs?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaccard, M.

    1993-01-01

    In an article by Cairns and Heyes (1993), it is argued that electricity pricing in Canada diverges from cost due to inter-class rate design that results in cross-subsidies, subsidized cost of capital, intra-class rate design that lacks time-of-use pricing, and failure to collect differential rent. Some problems with the key components of the initial assumption that prices diverge from cost are examined. The premise that inter-class rate design results in cross-subsidies may be correct, but is difficult to test since unregulated crown utilities are not required to make the necessary information public. Cairns and Heyes are on firmer ground in their assertion that provincial government backing of utility debts leads to lower costs of capital than would otherwise occur. Quebec and British Columbia governments have recently undertaken revenue collection initiatives justified under the rationale of addressing this situation. However, there are problems with the assumption that lack of time-of-use pricing indicates cost/price divergence, since such pricing is especially relevant in capacity-critical systems. Most hydroelectric systems are energy-critical and time-of-use differentials are not appropriate. Finally, recent evidence suggests reassessing the differential rent assumptions of the 1980s. The economic rents estimated in that period may be more accurately described as windfall rents existing in the short term while markets adjust to erratic fuel prices and cost changes in nuclear and hydro energy. There may be good economic efficiency arguments against short-term rent collection strategies involving erratic price adjustments. 1 ref

  6. Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

    The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

  7. A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2007-01-01

    A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject...... to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilat- eral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between essen- tially a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price...

  8. Household electricity consumers’ incentive to choose dynamic pricing under different taxation schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Katz, Jonas; Kitzing, Lena; Schröder, Sascha Thorsten

    2018-01-01

    Dynamic pricing of retail electricity, as opposed to the widely applied average pricing, has often been proposed to enhance economic efficiency through demand response. The development of variable production from renewable energies and expectations about the installation of heat pumps and electric...

  9. Optimal Day-ahead Charging Scheduling of Electric Vehicles through an Aggregative Game Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Zhaoxi; Wu, Qiuwei; Huang, Shaojun

    2017-01-01

    The electric vehicle (EV) market has been growing rapidly around the world. With large scale deployment of EVs in power systems, both the grid and EV owners will benefit if the flexible demand of EV charging is properly managed through the electricity market. When EV charging demand is considerable...... in a grid, it will impact spot prices in the electricity market and consequently influence the charging scheduling itself. The interaction between the spot prices and the EV demand needs to be considered in the EV charging scheduling, otherwise it will lead to a higher charging cost. A day-ahead EV charging...... scheduling based on an aggregative game model is proposed in this paper. The impacts of the EV demand on the electricity prices are formulated with the game model in the scheduling considering possible actions of other EVs. The existence and uniqueness of the pure strategy Nash equilibrium are proved...

  10. Effect of nuclear power generation on the electricity price in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Kee; Song, Kee Dong; Kim, Seung Soo; Kim, Sung Kee; Lee, Yung Kun

    1994-12-01

    The main purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of nuclear power generation on the electricity price by analysing electricity supply sector. The effects on electricity price changes are estimated in terms of following respects: - Restriction on the additional introduction of nuclear power plant. - CO 2 emission quantity control and carbon tax. A computer model by using Linear Programming optimization technique was also developed for these analyses. 10 figs, 12 tabs, 32 refs. (Author)

  11. Market fundamentals, competition and natural-gas prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hulshof, Daan; Maat, Jan-Pieter van der; Mulder, Machiel

    2016-01-01

    After the liberalisation of the gas industry, trading hubs have emerged in Europe. Although these hubs appear to be liquid market places fostering gas-to-gas competition, the efficiency of the gas market remains a topic of interest as a fair share of gas is still traded through long-term contracts with prices linked to the oil price while the number of gas suppliers to the European market is limited. In order to assess the efficiency of the gas market, we analyse the day-ahead spot price at the Dutch gas hub over the period 2011–2014. We find that the oil price had a small positive impact on the gas price. Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the movement in gas prices. The availability of gas in storages and the outside temperature negatively influenced the gas price. We also find that the gas price was related to the production of wind electricity. Overall, we conclude that the day-ahead gas prices are predominantly determined by gas-market fundamentals. Policies to further integrate gas markets within Europe may extend this gas-to-gas competition to a larger region. - Highlights: •We analyse the development of the day-ahead spot price at TTF over 2011–2014. •The oil price had a small impact on the gas price, while the coal price had no effect. •Changes in the concentration on the supply side did not affect the gas prices. •The gas prices are predominantly determined by weather and storage availability. •Policies to integrate gas markets foster gas-to-gas competition.

  12. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  13. Optimal electricity price calculation model for retailers in a deregulated market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yusta, J.M.; Dominguez-Navarro, J.A. [Zaragoza Univ., Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Zaragoza (Spain); Ramirez-Rosado, I.J. [La Rioja Univ., Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Logrono (Spain); Perez-Vidal, J.M. [McKinnon and Clarke, Energy Services Div., Zaragoza (Spain)

    2005-07-01

    The electricity retailing, a new business in deregulated electric power systems, needs the development of efficient tools to optimize its operation. This paper defines a technical-economic model of an electric energy service provider in the environment of the deregulated electricity market in Spain. This model results in an optimization problem, for calculating the optimal electric power and energy selling prices that maximize the economic profits obtained by the provider. This problem is applied to different cases, where the impact on the profits of several factors, such as the price strategy, the discount on tariffs and the elasticity of customer demand functions, is studied. (Author)

  14. Optimal electricity price calculation model for retailers in a deregulated market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusta, J.M.; Dominguez-Navarro, J.A.; Ramirez-Rosado, I.J.; Perez-Vidal, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    The electricity retailing, a new business in deregulated electric power systems, needs the development of efficient tools to optimize its operation. This paper defines a technical-economic model of an electric energy service provider in the environment of the deregulated electricity market in Spain. This model results in an optimization problem, for calculating the optimal electric power and energy selling prices that maximize the economic profits obtained by the provider. This problem is applied to different cases, where the impact on the profits of several factors, such as the price strategy, the discount on tariffs and the elasticity of customer demand functions, is studied. (Author)

  15. Electric power prices: variable tendency depending on the country

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1999-01-01

    The deregulation of the electric power sector is very much in the news in most countries and at different stages. A study carried out by the national utility service (NUS) in 17 countries worldwide takes stock of the influence of deregulation on electric power prices. According to this study, the most important price increases are found in 4 non-European countries (Norway, South Africa, USA, New Zealand) while the most important decreases are found within Europe (Sweden 20%, Denmark 15.6%, Italy 12% and Germany 8%). In France the decrease of tariffs reaches only 3%. This short paper analyzes the evolution of prices in the different countries selected in the study, but no real tendency is outlined as the stage of competition is different in each country. (J.S.)

  16. POWERS. Simulation of pricing and investment decisions in a liberalized Dutch electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rijkers, F.A.M.; Battjes, J.J.; Janszen, F.H.A.; Kaag, M.

    2001-02-01

    With the liberalisation of the Dutch electricity market the electricity price will be divided into a network component and a commodity component. Further, liberalisation will change the determination of the commodity price. Before liberalisation the commodity price was centrally determined by the Sep (Samenwerkende Electriciteitsproductiebedrijven or Dutch Electricity Generating Board), but with the introduction of liberalisation prices will be determined by the market itself. To analyse the liberalised market a new model (POWERS) has been developed in which the new structure of the electricity market is incorporated and the increasing competition between energy companies is taken into account. An overview of the POWERS-model is presented in this report. The model is based on the system dynamics. This means that the decisions (regarding production volume, allocation of the plants, price setting) made by each market player is based on information from the previous period. Optimisation models that are based on the assumption of 'perfect foresight' do not apply to the electricity market. Currently, the model contains a detailed description of the production capacity of the current market players in the Netherlands. Among other purposes the model is suitable for determining an outlook of forward prices on the Dutch electricity market and for analysing the impacts of alternative strategies of the different market players on their profits. 4 refs

  17. Impact of carbon cost on wholesale electricity price: A note on price pass-through issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Wook [Korea Southern Power Co., 167, Samsung-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul 135-791 (Korea); Chattopadhyay, Deb [Saha International, Level 26, 385 Bourke Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000 (Australia); Park, Jong-bae [Electrical Engineering Department, Konkuk University, 1 Hwayang-dong, Kwanggin-gu, Seoul 143-701 (Korea)

    2010-08-15

    Carbon costs - either in the form of a carbon tax or through permit prices in an emissions trading scheme - would ultimately be reflected in higher electricity prices. Carbon cost ''pass-through'' is critical to the survival of existing coal generation assets and has been discussed widely as a measure of business impact in the electricity industry. This paper sets out in a structured way the factors that determine price pass-through and why this may differ greatly across different systems. Although the basic concept of price pass-through is simple, a clear understanding of the underlying factors is critical to developing insights on how carbon cost would impact on existing coal generation businesses. It is shown that pass-through can vary drastically if the underlying dispatch potential of generators varies significantly across alternative emissions reduction scenarios. It can also vary depending on the availability of competing cleaner forms of generation. Pass-through as a measure of business performance is, therefore, hard to generalize across different circumstances and should be interpreted carefully. (author)

  18. Mixed price and load forecasting of electricity markets by a new iterative prediction method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Daraeepour, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Load and price forecasting are the two key issues for the participants of current electricity markets. However, load and price of electricity markets have complex characteristics such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity and multiple seasonality, to name a few (usually, more volatility is seen in the behavior of electricity price signal). For these reasons, much research has been devoted to load and price forecast, especially in the recent years. However, previous research works in the area separately predict load and price signals. In this paper, a mixed model for load and price forecasting is presented, which can consider interactions of these two forecast processes. The mixed model is based on an iterative neural network based prediction technique. It is shown that the proposed model can present lower forecast errors for both load and price compared with the previous separate frameworks. Another advantage of the mixed model is that all required forecast features (from load or price) are predicted within the model without assuming known values for these features. So, the proposed model can better be adapted to real conditions of an electricity market. The forecast accuracy of the proposed mixed method is evaluated by means of real data from the New York and Spanish electricity markets. The method is also compared with some of the most recent load and price forecast techniques. (author)

  19. Electricity-market price and nuclear power plant shutdown: Evidence from California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.K.; Ho, T.; Zarnikau, J.; Olson, A.; Jones, R.; Chait, M.; Horowitz, I.; Wang, J.

    2014-01-01

    Japan's Fukushima nuclear disaster, triggered by the March 11, 2011 earthquake, has led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. To maintain resource adequacy for a grid's reliable operation, one option is to expand conventional generation, whose marginal unit is typically fueled by natural-gas. Two timely and relevant questions thus arise for a deregulated wholesale electricity market: (1) what is the likely price increase due to a nuclear plant shutdown? and (2) what can be done to mitigate the price increase? To answer these questions, we perform a regression analysis of a large sample of hourly real-time electricity-market price data from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) for the 33-month sample period of April 2010–December 2012. Our analysis indicates that the 2013 shutdown of the state's San Onofre plant raised the CAISO real-time hourly market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH, and that the price increases could have been offset by a combination of demand reduction, increasing solar generation, and increasing wind generation. - Highlights: • Japan's disaster led to calls for shutting down existing nuclear plants. • We perform a regression analysis of California's real-time electricity-market prices. • We estimate that the San Onofre plant shutdown has raised the market prices by $6/MWH to $9/MWH. • The price increases could be offset by demand reduction and renewable generation increase

  20. Battery prices and capacity sensitivity: Electric drive vehicles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Nina

    2012-01-01

    , the prices at which the electric drive vehicles become of interest to the power system are found. Smart charge, including the opportunity to discharge (vehicle-to-grid) is used in all scenarios. Analyses show that the marginal benefits decrease the larger the battery. For very high battery prices, large......The increase in fluctuating power production requires an increase in flexibility in the system as well. Flexibility can be found in generation technologies with fast response times or in storage options. In the transport sector, the proportion of electric drive vehicles is expected to increase over...... the next decade or two. These vehicles can provide some of the flexibility needed in the power system, in terms of both flexible demand and electricity storage. However, what are the batteries worth to the power system? And does the value depend on battery capacity? This article presents an analysis...

  1. SpotADAPT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaulakiene, Dalia; Thomsen, Christian; Pedersen, Torben Bach

    2015-01-01

    by Amazon Web Services (AWS). The users aiming for the spot market are presented with many instance types placed in multiple datacenters in the world, and thus it is difficult to choose the optimal deployment. In this paper, we propose the framework SpotADAPT (Spot-Aware (re-)Deployment of Analytical...... of typical analytical workloads and real spot price traces. SpotADAPT's suggested deployments are comparable to the theoretically optimal ones, and in particular, it shows good cost benefits for the budget optimization -- on average SpotADAPT is at most 0.3% more expensive than the theoretically optimal...

  2. Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberini, Anna [Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Maryland (United States); Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Gibson Institute and Institute for a Sustainable World, School of Biological Sciences, Queen' s University Belfast, Northern Ireland (United Kingdom); Filippini, Massimo, E-mail: mfilippini@ethz.ch [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), ETH Zurich (Switzerland); Department of Economics, University of Lugano (Switzerland)

    2011-09-15

    In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured. To address these issues, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the Kiviet corrected Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) (1995) and the Blundell-Bond (1998) estimators. We find that the long-term elasticities produced by the Blundell-Bond system GMM methods are largest, and that from the bias-corrected LSDV are greater than that from the conventional LSDV. From an energy policy point of view, the results obtained using the Blundell-Bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price-based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants. - Research Highlights: > Updated information on price elasticities for the US energy policy. > Taking into account measurement error in the price variable increase price elasticity. > Room for discouraging residential electricity consumption using price increases.

  3. Response of residential electricity demand to price: The effect of measurement error

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alberini, Anna; Filippini, Massimo

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we present an empirical analysis of the residential demand for electricity using annual aggregate data at the state level for 48 US states from 1995 to 2007. Earlier literature has examined residential energy consumption at the state level using annual or monthly data, focusing on the variation in price elasticities of demand across states or regions, but has failed to recognize or address two major issues. The first is that, when fitting dynamic panel models, the lagged consumption term in the right-hand side of the demand equation is endogenous. This has resulted in potentially inconsistent estimates of the long-run price elasticity of demand. The second is that energy price is likely mismeasured. To address these issues, we estimate a dynamic partial adjustment model using the Kiviet corrected Least Square Dummy Variables (LSDV) (1995) and the Blundell-Bond (1998) estimators. We find that the long-term elasticities produced by the Blundell-Bond system GMM methods are largest, and that from the bias-corrected LSDV are greater than that from the conventional LSDV. From an energy policy point of view, the results obtained using the Blundell-Bond estimator where we instrument for price imply that a carbon tax or other price-based policy may be effective in discouraging residential electricity consumption and hence curbing greenhouse gas emissions in an electricity system mainly based on coal and gas power plants. - Research Highlights: → Updated information on price elasticities for the US energy policy. → Taking into account measurement error in the price variable increase price elasticity. → Room for discouraging residential electricity consumption using price increases.

  4. Optimal pricing and investment in the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthy, Ranganath Srinivas

    2001-07-01

    Faulty pricing policies and inadequate investment in the power sector are responsible for the chronic power shortages that plague Tamil Nadu and the rest of India. Formulae for optimal pricing rules are derived for a social welfare maximizing Electricity Board which sells electricity that is used both as an intermediate, and as a final good. Because of distributional constraints, the optimal prices deviate systematically from marginal costs. Optimal relative price-marginal cost differentials are computed for Tamil Nadu, and are found to indicate a lower degree of subsidization than the prevailing prices. The rationalization of electricity tariffs would very likely increase the Board's revenues. The cost-effectiveness of nuclear power in India is examined by comparing actual data for the Madras Atomic Power Project and the Singrauli coal-fired thermal power station. The conventional (non-environmental) costs of power generation are compared at both market prices and shadow prices, calculated according to the UNIDO guidelines for project evaluation. Despite favorable assumptions for the costs of the nuclear plant, coal had a decided edge over nuclear in Tamil Nadu. Remarkably, the edge varied little when market prices are replaced by shadow prices in the computations. With regard to the environmental costs, far too much remains unknown. More research is therefore needed on the environmental impacts of both types of power generation before a final choice can be made.

  5. Auction development for the price-based electric power industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekrajangpetch, Somgiat

    The restructuring of the electric power industry is to move away from the cost-based monopolistic environment of the past to the priced-based competitive environment. As the electric power industry is restructuring in many places, there are still many problems that need to be solved. The work in this dissertation contributes to solve some of the electric power auction problems. The majority of this work is aimed to help develop good markets. A LaGrangian relaxation (LR) Centralized Daily Commitment Auction (CDCA) has been implemented. It has been shown that the solution might not be optimal nor fair to some generation companies (GENCOs) when identical or similar generating units participate in a LR CDCA based auction. Supporting information for bidding strategies on how to change unit data to enhance the chances of bid acceptance has been developed. The majority of this work is based on Single Period Commodity Auction (SPCA). Alternative structures for the SPCA are outlined. Whether the optimal solution is degenerated is investigated. Good pricing criteria are summarized and the pricing method following good pricing criteria is developed. Electricity is generally considered as a homogeneous product. When availability level is used as additional characteristic to distinct electricity, electricity can be considered a heterogeneous product. The procedure to trade electricity as a heterogeneous product is developed. The SPCA is formulated as a linear program. The basic IPLP algorithm has been extended so that sensitivity analysis can be performed as in the simplex method. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine market reach. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is used in combination with the investigation of historical auction results to provide raw data for power system expansion. Market power is a critical issue in electric power deregulation. Firms with market power have an advantage over other competitor firms in terms of market reach. Various approaches to

  6. Modeling of demand response in electricity markets : effects of price elasticity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banda, E.C.; Tuan, L.A.

    2007-01-01

    A design mechanism for the optimal participation of customer load in electricity markets was presented. In particular, this paper presented a modified market model for the optimal procurement of interruptible loads participating in day-ahead electricity markets. The proposed model considers the effect of price elasticity and demand-response functions. The objective was to determine the role that price elasticity plays in electricity markets. The simulation model can help the Independent System Operator (ISO) identify customers offering the lowest price of interruptible loads and load flow patterns that avoid problems associated with transmission congestion and transmission losses. Various issues associated with procurement of demand-response offerings such as advance notification, locational aspect of load, and power factor of the loads, were considered. It was shown that demand response can mitigate price volatility by allowing the ISO to maintain operating reserves during peak load periods. It was noted that the potential benefits of the demand response program would be reduced when price elasticity of demand is taken into account. This would most likely occur in actual developed open electricity markets, such as Nordpool. This study was based on the CIGRE 32-bus system, which represents the Swedish high voltage power system. It was modified for this study to include a broad range of customer characteristics. 18 refs., 2 tabs., 14 figs

  7. Competitive electricity markets around the world: approaches to price risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson, G.S.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter focuses on wholesale electricity markets, and traces the histories of the US and UK power industries. Risk management in the new electricity market is examined covering price risk, location basis risk, volume risk, and margin and cross-commodity risk. Specific competitive market systems that have been implemented around the world including mandatory pools, voluntary pools, and bilateral markets are discussed. Panels describing the functions of ancillary services, electricity price volatility, and the problems of capacity payments and the UK pool are presented

  8. Capacity investment and competition in decentralized electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Nils-Henrik von der; Harbord, David Cameron

    1997-11-01

    With particular reference to the recently deregulated and market-based electricity industries in Norway, the UK and elsewhere the report analyses oligopoly entry and capacity investment decisions as a non-cooperative game in a decentralized electricity market. A two-stage game is considered, with multiple capacity types and uncertain demand, in which capacity decisions are made prior to spot-market, or price competition. Equilibrium outcomes for different pricing mechanisms or regulatory regimes are analysed. The following questions are dealt with in particular: Will industry capacity be sufficient to ensure adequate supply security? Does imperfect competition in the spot-market lead to an inefficient mix of base-load and peak-load technologies? How do different regulatory policies affect the market outcomes? 24 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  9. Loss aversion and price volatility as determinants of attitude towards and preference for variable price in the Swedish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juliusson, E. Asgeir; Gamble, Amelie; Gaerling, Tommy

    2007-01-01

    The results of a survey of a random sample of 488 Swedish residents showed that a positive attitude towards and preference for a variable price agreement with the incumbent electricity supplier was negatively affected by loss aversion, and a positive attitude also negatively affected by beliefs about price volatility. Although correlated with attitude and preference, age, education, and current choice of a variable price agreement had no independent effects. Income and current electricity costs had no effects. (author)

  10. Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, C.-K.; Karimov, R.I.; Horowitz, Ira

    2004-01-01

    A local electricity distribution company (LDC) can satisfy some of its future electricity requirements through self-generation and volatile spot markets, and the remainder through fixed-price forward contracts that will reduce its exposure to the inherent risk of spot-price volatility. A theoretical framework is developed for determining the forward-contract purchase that minimizes the LDCs expected procurement cost, subject to a cost-exposure constraint. The answers to the questions of 'What to buy?' and 'How to buy?' are illustrated using an example of a hypothetical LDC that is based on a municipal utility in Florida. It is shown that the LDCs procurement decision is consistent with least-cost procurement subject to a cost-exposure constraint, and that an internet-based multi-round auction can produce competitive price quotes for its desired forward purchase

  11. Green pricing: Customer-oriented marketing of the electricity industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weller, T.

    1998-01-01

    There are at present about 15 established projects launched by energy suppliers in Germany which deserve to be called ''green pricing'' marketing strategies, and about an equal number of further projects at various stages of development which also offer as a ''green'' incentive for customers electricity from renewable energy sources. Worldwide, there are about 50 established green pricing projects, offered primarily in the USA, Switzerland and the Netherlands, and in Germany. The targeted customers of these projects for the time being are exclusively households that cannot easily switch over to other than their local suppliers. It can be expected that with progressive market liberalisation in Great Britain, the USA and, finally, in Germany, competition for this customer group will rapidly increase the number of green pricing marketing projects in these countries. This is why the article here presents a thorough analysis of the specific features of green pricing contracts, their impact on enhanced development and application of the technology for electricity generation from renewables, and a forecast on future developments. (orig./CB) [de

  12. Markets and pricing for interruptible electric power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gedra, T.W.; Varaiya, P.P.

    1993-01-01

    The authors propose a market for interruptible, or callable, forward contracts for electric power, in which the consumer grants the power supplier the right to interrupt a given unit of load in return for a price discount. The callable forward contracts are traded continuously until the time of use. This allows recourse for those customers with uncertain demand, while risk-averse consumers can minimize their price risk by purchasing early. Callable forward contracts are simple in form, and can be directly incorporated into the utility's economic dispatch procedure

  13. A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank S.; Nielsen, Morten Oerregaard

    2010-01-01

    A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. (author)

  14. Reforming residential electricity tariff in China: Block tariffs pricing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Chuanwang; Lin, Boqiang

    2013-01-01

    The Chinese households that make up approximately a quarter of world households are facing a residential power tariff reform in which a rising block tariff structure will be implemented, and this tariff mechanism is widely used around the world. The basic principle of the structure is to assign a higher price for higher income consumers with low price elasticity of power demand. To capture the non-linear effects of price and income on elasticities, we set up a translog demand model. The empirical findings indicate that the higher income consumers are less sensitive than those with lower income to price changes. We further put forward three proposals of Chinese residential electricity tariffs. Compared to a flat tariff, the reasonable block tariff structure generates more efficient allocation of cross-subsidies, better incentives for raising the efficiency of electricity usage and reducing emissions from power generation, which also supports the living standards of low income households. - Highlights: • We design a rising block tariff structure of residential electricity in China. • We set up a translog demand model to find the non-linear effects on elasticities. • The higher income groups are less sensitive to price changes. • Block tariff structure generates more efficient allocation of cross-subsidies. • Block tariff structure supports the living standards of low income households

  15. A comparison of pay-as-bid and marginal pricing in electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yongjun

    This thesis investigates the behaviour of electricity markets under marginal and pay-as-bid pricing. Marginal pricing is believed to yield the maximum social welfare and is currently implemented by most electricity markets. However, in view of recent electricity market failures, pay-as-bid has been extensively discussed as a possible alternative to marginal pricing. In this research, marginal and pay-as-bid pricing have been analyzed in electricity markets with both perfect and imperfect competition. The perfect competition case is studied under both exact and uncertain system marginal cost prediction. The comparison of the two pricing methods is conducted through two steps: (i) identify the best offer strategy of the generating companies (gencos); (ii) analyze the market performance under these optimum genco strategies. The analysis results together with numerical simulations show that pay-as-bid and marginal pricing are equivalent in a perfect market with exact system marginal cost prediction. In perfect markets with uncertain demand prediction, the two pricing methods are also equivalent but in an expected value sense. If we compare from the perspective of second order statistics, all market performance measures exhibit much lower values under pay-as-bid than under marginal pricing. The risk of deviating from the mean is therefore much higher under marginal pricing than under pay-as-bid. In an imperfect competition market with exact demand prediction, the research shows that pay-as-bid pricing yields lower consumer payments and lower genco profits. This research provides quantitative evidence that challenges some common claims about pay-as-bid pricing. One is that under pay-as-bid, participants would soon learn how to offer so as to obtain the same or higher profits than what they would have obtained under marginal pricing. This research however shows that, under pay-as-bid, participants can at best earn the same profit or expected profit as under marginal

  16. Predicting Baseline for Analysis of Electricity Pricing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, T. [Ulsan National Inst. of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of); Lee, D. [Ulsan National Inst. of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of); Choi, J. [Ulsan National Inst. of Science and Technology (Korea, Republic of); Spurlock, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Todd, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wu, K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-05-03

    To understand the impact of new pricing structure on residential electricity demands, we need a baseline model that captures every factor other than the new price. The standard baseline is a randomized control group, however, a good control group is hard to design. This motivates us to devlop data-driven approaches. We explored many techniques and designed a strategy, named LTAP, that could predict the hourly usage years ahead. The key challenge in this process is that the daily cycle of electricity demand peaks a few hours after the temperature reaching its peak. Existing methods rely on the lagged variables of recent past usages to enforce this daily cycle. These methods have trouble making predictions years ahead. LTAP avoids this trouble by assuming the daily usage profile is determined by temperature and other factors. In a comparison against a well-designed control group, LTAP is found to produce accurate predictions.

  17. Pay for load demand - electricity pricing with load demand component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pyrko, Jurek; Sernhed, Kerstin; Abaravicius, Juozas

    2003-01-01

    This publication is part of a project called Direct and Indirect Load Control in Buildings. Peak load problems have attracted considerable attention in Sweden during last three winters, caused by a significant decrease in available reserve power, which is a consequence of political decisions and liberalisation of the electricity market. A possible way to lower peak loads, avoiding electricity shortages and reducing electricity costs both for users and utilities, is to make customers experience the price difference during peak load periods and, in this way, become more aware of their energy consumption pattern and load demand. As of January 1st 2001, one of the Swedish energy utilities - Sollentuna Energi - operating in the Stockholm area, introduced a new electricity tariff with differentiated grid fees based on a mean value of the peak load every month. This tariff was introduced for all residential customers in the service area. The objective of this study is to investigate the extent to which a Load Demand Component, included in electricity pricing, can influence energy use and load demand in residential buildings. What are the benefits and disadvantages for customers and utilities? This paper investigates the impact of the new tariff on the utility and different types of typical residential customers, making comparisons with previous tariff. Keywords Load demand, electricity pricing, tariff, residential customers, energy behaviour

  18. Rising natural gas and electricity prices in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roggen, M.

    2004-01-01

    In a free market, the price for electricity rises rather than falls. And as for the gas price, the consumer will be facing strong fluctuations. For that matter, it is only slightly connected with the liberalization of the market. An employee of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants has delved deeply into the matter, down to the euro [nl

  19. Price Signals from Electricity Markets and Subsidy Schemes for Renewable Sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sabolic, D.

    2013-01-01

    Increasing share of renewable generation itself gives rise to price risks on the electricity markets. Subsidy schemes, in general, additionally distort price signals produced by economic mechanisms of otherwise free markets. In the electricity industry, subsidy schemes, once designed merely to incentivize electricity system decarbonization in its kick-off phase, seem to have grown to such a volume, that they, too, started to profoundly interfere with the whole market structure, and to distort price signals that used to govern long-term development of an adequately structured generation system. This article was made as an attempt to discuss contemporary electricity system policies in relation to RES integration. The economic relations in the sector are growingly influenced, or sometimes even hard-handedly guided, by political institutions, rather than by economic interests of the investors, which may in turn cause considerable problems in achieving ultimate policy goals due to unsustainability of such an economic arrangement.(author)

  20. Renewable Energy and Electricity Prices in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Gelabert; Xavier Labandeira; Pedro Linares

    2011-01-01

    Growing concerns about climate change and energy dependence are driving specific policies to support renewable or more efficient energy sources in many regions, particularly in the production of electricity. These policies have a non-negligible cost, and therefore a careful assessment of their impacts seems necessary. In particular, one of the most-debated impacts is their effect on electricity prices, for which there have been some ex-ante studies, but few ex-post studies. This article prese...

  1. Research on spot power market equilibrium model considering the electric power network characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chengmin; Jiang, Chuanwen; Chen, Qiming

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium is the optimum operational condition for the power market by economics rule. A realistic spot power market cannot achieve the equilibrium condition due to network losses and congestions. The impact of the network losses and congestion on spot power market is analyzed in this paper in order to establish a new equilibrium model considering the network loss and transmission constraints. The OPF problem formulated according to the new equilibrium model is solved by means of the equal price principle. A case study on the IEEE-30-bus system is provided in order to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. (author)

  2. Electricity price forecasting in deregulated markets: A review and evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aggarwal, Sanjeev Kumar; Saini, Lalit Mohan; Kumar, Ashwani [Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra, Haryana (India)

    2009-01-15

    The main methodologies used in electricity price forecasting have been reviewed in this paper. The following price-forecasting techniques have been covered: (i) stochastic time series, (ii) causal models, and (iii) artificial intelligence based models. The quantitative analysis of the work done by various authors has been presented based on (a) time horizon for prediction, (b) input variables, (c) output variables, (d) results, (e) data points used for analysis, (f) preprocessing technique employed, and (g) architecture of the model. The results have been presented in the form of tables for ease of comparison. Classification of various price-influencing factors used by different researchers has been done and put for reference. Application of various models as applied to different electricity markets is also presented for consideration. (author)

  3. Electricity price forecasting in deregulated markets: A review and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aggarwal, Sanjeev Kumar; Saini, Lalit Mohan; Kumar, Ashwani

    2009-01-01

    The main methodologies used in electricity price forecasting have been reviewed in this paper. The following price-forecasting techniques have been covered: (i) stochastic time series, (ii) causal models, and (iii) artificial intelligence based models. The quantitative analysis of the work done by various authors has been presented based on (a) time horizon for prediction, (b) input variables, (c) output variables, (d) results, (e) data points used for analysis, (f) preprocessing technique employed, and (g) architecture of the model. The results have been presented in the form of tables for ease of comparison. Classification of various price-influencing factors used by different researchers has been done and put for reference. Application of various models as applied to different electricity markets is also presented for consideration. (author)

  4. Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, Diego J.; Trapero, Juan R.

    2007-01-01

    The changes experienced by electricity markets in recent years have created the necessity for more accurate forecast tools of electricity prices, both for producers and consumers. Many methodologies have been applied to this aim, but in the view of the authors, state space models are not yet fully exploited. The present paper proposes a univariate dynamic harmonic regression model set up in a state space framework for forecasting prices in these markets. The advantages of the approach are threefold. Firstly, a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure is proposed based on the frequency domain. Secondly, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions that compare favourably with respect to other techniques. Finally, since the method is based on unobserved components models, explicit information about trend, seasonal and irregular behaviours of the series can be extracted. This information is of great value to the electricity companies' managers in order to improve their strategies, i.e. it provides management innovations. The good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the model to changes in the data are illustrated with actual prices taken from the PJM interconnection in the US and for the Spanish market for the year 2002. (author)

  5. Hourly price elasticity pattern of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market

    OpenAIRE

    Knaut, Andreas; Paulus, Simon

    2016-01-01

    System security in electricity markets relies crucially on the interaction between demand and supply over time. However, research on electricity markets has been mainly focusing on the supply side arguing that demand is rather inelastic. Assuming perfectly inelastic demand might lead to delusive statements regarding the price formation in electricity markets. In this article we quantify the short-run price elasticity of electricity demand in the German day-ahead market and show that demand is...

  6. Electricity price forecasting using Enhanced Probability Neural Network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Whei-Min; Gow, Hong-Jey; Tsai, Ming-Tang

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a price forecasting system for electric market participants to reduce the risk of price volatility. Combining the Probability Neural Network (PNN) and Orthogonal Experimental Design (OED), an Enhanced Probability Neural Network (EPNN) is proposed in the solving process. In this paper, the Locational Marginal Price (LMP), system load and temperature of PJM system were collected and the data clusters were embedded in the Excel Database according to the year, season, workday, and weekend. With the OED to smooth parameters in the EPNN, the forecasting error can be improved during the training process to promote the accuracy and reliability where even the ''spikes'' can be tracked closely. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed EPNN to provide quality information in a price volatile environment. (author)

  7. A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Jing.

    1990-01-01

    First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

  8. Adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial neural networks in the restructured power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamin, H.Y.; Shahidehpour, S.M.; Li, Z.

    2004-01-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive model for the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the restructured power markets. The model consists: price simulation, price forecasting, and performance analysis. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, reserve factors, and historical price factor are discussed. We adopted ANN and proposed a new definition for the MAPE using the median to study the relationship between these factors and market price as well as the performance of the electricity price forecasting. The reserve factors are included to enhance the performance of the forecasting process. The proposed model handles the price spikes more efficiently due to considering the median instead of the average. The IEEE 118-bus system and California practical system are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. (author)

  9. Optimal pricing of transmission and distribution services in electricity supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, E.D.; Cory, B.J.; Perera, B.L.P.P.

    1995-01-01

    A new strategy for the separate pricing of transmission and distribution services in electricity supply is formulated and evaluated. The proposed methodology is a multivariate transmission generalisation of the method of peak load pricing previously applied to the optimal time-of-use pricing of generation on a power system with diverse generation technologies and with elastic demand. The method allocates both capacity and operational costs on a time-of-use basis, in an optimal manner, that avoids cross-subsidisation both between differing supply system participants and differing times of usage. The method is shown to promote the optimal development of the transmission, distribution or interconnecting systems, rewarding justified investments in transmission capacity and discouraging overinvestment. It also leads to appropriate returns on invested capital without significant 'revenue reconciliation'. This contrasts with SRMC pricing as is shown by a comparative revenue evaluation. It is concluded that the method has wide potential application in electricity supply. (author)

  10. Investments and price formation in a liberalized electric power market. Appendices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morthorst, P.E.

    2005-06-01

    How will the electric power prices in the Nordic electric power market develop if the generation capacity in the coming 10 to 15 years is increased considerably? And what are the conditions for investors to initiate new investments in power plants? Briefly speaking - these are the issues for the project that is reported in this report. The basis for the project has been the Nordic electric power market model and its capability to handle the future extension of the necessary generating capacity. The main issue in the project has been a quantitative analysis of what the prices in the Nordic electric power market will be in the future, depending on the size of new investments in the power generating capacity. The appendix volume of the project report contains detailed descriptions of the three models that are used: the Balmorel model, the investment model, and the MARS model. The Balmorel model is a partial equilibrium model that describes a coherent, international electric power system and combined heat and power system. The model was developed in 2000 through international co-operation with the aim to have a model for analysing international aspects in the Baltic area. The investment model analyses and models the investment decisions in a liberalized Nordic electric power market. It is an exogenous model constructed outside the Balmorel model but uses the price pictures from the Balmorel model as input. MARS (MARket Simulation) is Eltra's (a Danish electric power transmission company) market model for simulating prices, production, demand and exchanges in the power market. The model covers the Nordic countries (Nord Pool) and Northern Germany. (LN)

  11. Australian retail electricity prices: Can we avoid repeating the rising trend of the past?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, Paul W.; Brinsmead, Thomas; Hatfield-Dodds, Steve

    2015-01-01

    After a stable or declining real trend that persisted for more than half a century, Australian retail electricity prices have experienced a substantial increase, in real terms, since 2007. This has mainly been driven by increases in the cost of electricity distribution and to a lesser degree in the cost of electricity generation. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which is a bipartisan political goal in Australia, will likely deliver further increases in generation costs due to the expected higher cost of low emission technology. Participating in global negotiations on emission reduction targets and designing efficient policy mechanisms have been a major focus of governments over the last several decades. In contrast, managing distribution system costs has received less attention. While there were a number of factors which drove historical increases in distribution costs, management of peak demand growth could help contain or reduce the extent to which consumers, particularly households, experience further increases in distribution costs. The paper demonstrates how different combinations of carbon price and peak demand scenarios could impact future residential and industrial retail electricity prices to 2050 and discusses some behavioural and technological solutions to manage peak demand and potential barriers to their deployment. - Highlights: • We identify the causes of the increase in Australian retail electricity prices. • We identify two sources of likely further cost pressures on electricity prices. • We estimate future retail electricity prices under five scenarios. • We discuss barriers and solutions to controlling peak demand growth.

  12. Independent power and cogeneration in Ontario's new competitive electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnstable, A.G.

    1999-01-01

    The factors influencing the initial market pricing in the early years of Ontario's new electricity market were discussed with particular insight on the potential for near term development of independent power and cogeneration. The major factors influencing prices include: (1) no increase in retail prices, (2) financial restructuring of Ontario Hydro, (3) the Market Power Mitigation Agreement, (4) tighter power plant emissions standards, and (5) an electricity supply and demand balance. Generation competition is not expected to influence market pricing in the early years of the new electricity market. Prices will instead reflect the restructuring decisions of the Ontario government. The decision to have Ontario Power Generation Inc. (OPGI) as a single generator for Ontario Hydro's generation assets will ensure that average spot market pricing in the early market years will be close to a 3.8 c/kWh revenue cap

  13. The welfare effects of different pricing schemes for electricity distribution in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria

    2004-01-01

    The main components of electricity prices can be divided into the wholesale price, the price of network operations and taxes. Even if the wholesale price is determined efficiently, total welfare can be significantly disturbed if network operations are priced inefficiently. In this study, we calculate network prices based on four alternative methods. These are marginal cost pricing, Ramsey pricing, FDC-pricing and optimal two-part tariffs. The welfare effects on the prevailing pricing system are compared. We show that potentially significant improvements in welfare can be achieved by using marginal cost prices or optimal two-part tariffs. Also Ramsey pricing indicates that prevailing prices are inefficient

  14. The welfare effects of different pricing schemes for electricity distribution in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria

    2004-01-01

    The main components of electricity prices can be divided into the wholesale price, the price of network operations and taxes. Even if the wholesale price is determined efficiently, total welfare can be significantly disturbed if network operations are priced inefficiently. In this study, we calculate network prices based on four alternative methods. These are marginal cost pricing, Ramsey pricing, FDC-pricing and optimal two-part tariffs. The welfare effects on the prevailing pricing system are compared. We show that potentially significant improvements in welfare can be achieved by using marginal cost prices or optimal two-part tariffs. Also Ramsey pricing indicates that prevailing prices are inefficient. (Author)

  15. Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Koc, Veli; Sapio, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive strategies. This paper examines the prices submitted to the British wholesale electricity market by four coal-fired plants, separately owned, approximately of the same age, size and efficiency, and located in the same transmission network zone. Due to the repetitive nature of the spot market, one would expect convergence in strategies. Yet, we find evidence of persistent price dispersion and heterogeneous strategies. We consider several propositions for these effects including market power, company size, forward commitments, vertical integration and the management of interrelated assets. - Highlights: • Time series models of offer prices from 4 companies, UK electricity spot market • Focus on coal-fired plants of similar size, efficiency, age, same network zone • Low, less volatile offers by small, not vertically integrated, only-coal company • Operational risks of nuclear plants in a portfolio imply finer tracking of PX prices • Market leadership from private information on the Anglo-French interconnector flows

  16. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. → The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. → PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. → One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. → The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  17. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shafie-khah, M., E-mail: miadreza@gmail.co [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, M. Parsa, E-mail: parsa@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., E-mail: aleslam@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    Research highlights: {yields} A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. {yields} The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. {yields} PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. {yields} One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. {yields} The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  18. Multivariate long memory processes: applications to the EDF producer problematic in the context of the european electricity market liberalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diongue, A.K.

    2005-10-01

    Certain crucial financial time series, such as the interconnected european electricity market spot prices, exhibit long memory, in the sense of slowly decaying correlations combined with heteroskedasticity and periodic or none cycles. In modeling such behavior, we consider on one hand, the k factor GIGARCH process and additionally propose two methods to address the related parameter estimation problem. In each method, we explore the asymptotic theory for estimation. Moreover, the asymptotic properties are validated and compared via Monte Carlo simulations. On the other hand, we introduce a new multivariate long memory generalized model (k-factor MVGARMA) in order to model interconnected european electricity market spot prices. We suggest a practical framework to address the parameter estimation problem. We investigate the analytical expressions of the least squares predictors for the two proposed models and their confidence intervals. To finish, we apply the two proposed models to the french and german electricity market spot prices and a comparison is made between their forecasting abilities. (author)

  19. Lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar: empirical results for Massachusetts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Vaid, Devina

    2016-01-01

    Monthly and hourly correlations among photovoltaic (PV) capacity utilization, electricity prices, electricity consumption, and the thermal efficiency of power plants in Massachusetts reduce electricity prices and carbon emissions beyond average calculations. PV utilization rates are highest when the thermal efficiencies of natural gas fired power plants are lowest, which reduces emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 by 0.3% relative to the annual average emission rate. There is a positive correlation between PV utilization rates and electricity prices, which raises the implied price of PV electricity by up to 10% relative to the annual average price, such that the average MWh reduces electricity prices by $0.26–$1.86 per MWh. These price reductions save Massachusetts rate-payers $184 million between 2010 and 2012. The current and net present values of these savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits which is the policy instrument that is used to accelerate the installation of PV capacity. Together, these results suggest that rooftop PV is an economically viable source of power in Massachusetts even though it has not reached socket parity. - Highlights: •Implied price of PV up to 10% greater than the annual average price. •PV saves Massachusetts rate-payers $184 million in 2010–2012. •Annual savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits. •Savings rise longer lifetime of PV systems and pay period for SREC's shortened. •PV reduces emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 by 0.3% relative to the annual average.

  20. Transmission prices in the electric system. Technical constraints and economic efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polidori, P.

    1999-01-01

    This article analyses the two main models at the core of today's theoretical discussion on transmission pricing in electricity sectors under competition. The first aim of the paper is showing how technical constraints that characterise transmission systems may affect energy production and transmission and therefore the definition of the price system for using the electric grid. The second aim of the paper is showing how it is possible to suggest solutions, although not free from limitations, that can be used for an efficient management of electric systems characterised by generation and consumption sectors under competition [it

  1. Incorporating network effects in a competitive electricity industry. An Australian perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Outhred, H.; Kaye, J.

    1996-01-01

    The role of an electricity network in a competitive electricity industry is reviewed, the nation's experience with transmission pricing is discussed, and a 'Nodal Auction Model' for incorporating network effects in a competitive electricity industry is proposed. The model uses a computer-based auction procedure to address both the spatial issues associated with an electricity network and the temporal issues associated with operation scheduling. The objective is to provide a market framework that addresses both network effects and operation scheduling in a coordinated implementation of spot pricing theory. 12 refs

  2. Pricing of electricity in a time of change - some key issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostert, W.

    1995-01-01

    The paper covers four topics: (I) what does full cost coverage mean in the Eastern European power sector, (II) LRMC (Long Run Marginal Cost) pricing in regulated utilities versus free market prices; (III) limits to the internalization of external costs in fuel pricing, (IV) pricing of IPPs (Independent Power Producer). The paper argues that the tariff which allows full cost coverage in the Eastern European power sector should be defined as the minimum tariff which allows 30% self-financing of investments and a rate of return of at least 5% on invested assets. The appropriate level of self-financing relates to the appropriate capital structure of the company; the rate of return to the ability to attract finance in the long run. During the last twenty years there has been general consensus among power economists that the application of the LRMC pricing principle for the setting of tariffs was the best principle to ensure efficiency on both the demand as well as the supply side. In free markets involving TPA (Third Party Access) and spot markets, that principle can no longer be applied. In times of scarcity, prices will be above LMRC; in times of surplus capacity below LRMC. Economists have argued for years that external costs and benefits have to be ''internalized'' in tariffs and prices in order to provide consumers and investors with the right pricing principles

  3. Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chikeung Woo; Karimov, R.I.; Horowitz, I.

    2004-01-01

    A local electricity distribution company (LDC) can satisfy some of its future electricity requirements through self-generation and volatile spot markets, and the remainder through fixed-price forward contracts that will reduce its exposure to the inherent risk of spot-price volatility. A theoretical framework is developed for determining the forward-contract purchase that minimizes the LDCs expected procurement cost, subject to a cost-exposure constraint. The answers to the questions of ''What to buy?'' and ''How to buy?'' are illustrated using an example of a hypothetical LDC that is based on a municipal utility in Florida. It is shown that the LDCs procurement decision is consistent with least-cost procurement subject to a cost-exposure constraint, and that an internet-based multi-round auction can produce competitive price quotes for its desired forward purchase. (author)

  4. Optimal Electricity Charge Strategy Based on Price Elasticity of Demand for Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xin; Xu, Daidai; Zang, Chuanzhi

    The price elasticity is very important for the prediction of electricity demand. This paper mainly establishes the price elasticity coefficient for electricity in single period and inter-temporal. Then, a charging strategy is established based on these coefficients. To evaluate the strategy proposed, simulations of the two elastic coefficients are carried out based on the history data of a certain region.

  5. Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Pezzutto

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scope of the present investigation is to provide a description of final electricity prices development in the context of deregulated electricity markets in EU28, up to 2020. We introduce a new methodology to predict long-term electricity market prices consisting of two parts: (1 a self-developed form of Porter’s five forces analysis (PFFA determining that electricity markets are characterized by a fairly steady price increase. Dominant driving factors come out to be: (i uncertainty of future electricity prices; (ii regulatory complexity; and (iii generation overcapacities. Similar conclusions derive from (2 a self-developed form of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA. In this case, we find that the electricity market particularly depends on (i market liberalization and (ii the European Union (EU’s economy growth. The applied methodologies provide a novel contribution in forecasting electricity price trends, by analyzing the sentiments, expectations, and knowledge of industry experts, through an assessment of factors influencing the market price and goals of key market participants. An extensive survey was conducted, interviewing experts all over Europe showed that the electricity market is subject to a future slight price increase.

  6. The price of electricity from private power producers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahn, E.; Milne, A.; Kito, S.

    1993-10-01

    The long-term wholesale electricity market is becoming increasingly competitive. Bidding for power contracts has become a dominant form of competition in this sector. The prices which emerge from this process have not been documented and compared in a systematic framework. This paper introduces a method to make such comparisons and illustrates it on a small sample of projects. This results show a wide range of prices for what is essentially the same technology, gas-fired combined cycle generation. The price range seems greater than what could be explained by transmission cost differences between high and low cost regions. For the smaller sample of coal-fired projects, price variation is substantially less. Further data collection and analysis should be able to help isolate more clearly what market or cost factors are responsible for the observed variation.

  7. Trend of electricity prices in privatised industry: UK compared to other european countries 1985-1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenzoni, A.

    1995-01-01

    Great efforts are devoted nowadays in many countries to reform the electric power system in order to achieve higher efficiency. The model under consideration is, more or less overtly, the new Electricity Supply Industry (ESI) in England and Wales which first transformed the vertically integrated state monopoly and introduced as the same time competition in electricity generation and supply. This paper analyses the trend of the final prices in UK during the ESI structural transformation between 1985 and 1994, since the final price of electricity is acknowledge as a good indicator of the performance of an ESI, and highlights the impact of privatisation on the different classes of consumers. It is investigated the evolution of the ratio between regulated-prices and free-market prices to further understand who profited from the new structure of the industry; the study continues with a comparison among the prices in UK, Italy and France. The analysis applies first to the nominal prices, and secondly to the deflated prices, in order to compare different years at constant purchase power

  8. Market based solutions for increased flexibility in electricity consumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grande, Ove S.; Saele, Hanne

    2005-06-01

    The main focus of this paper is on manual and automatic demand response to prices in the day ahead market. The content is mainly based on the results and experiences from the large scale Norwegian test and research project End User flexibility by efficient use of ICT (2001-2004) involving 10,894 customers with automatic meter reading (AMR) and remote load control (RLC) options. The response to hourly spot price products and intraday time of use (ToU) tariffs were tested. The registered response differs from 0.18-1 kWh/h in average per household customer for the different combination of these price signals. The largest response was achieved for the customers with both the ToU network tariff and hourly spot price. Some of the customers were offered remote controlled automatic disconnection of water heaters in the high price periods during week days. The test shows that the potential of load reduction from water heaters can be estimated to 0.6 kWh/h in the peak hours on average. For Norway this indicates that a total of 600 MWh/h automatic price elasticity could be achieved, provided that half of the 2 million Norwegian households accept RLC of their water heater referred to spot price. The benefit for load shifting is limited for each customer, but of great value for the power system as a whole. Combination of an hourly spot price contract with an intraday ToU network tariff should therefore be considered, in order to provide stable economic incentives for load reduction. One potential drawback for customers with spot price energy contracts is the risk of high electricity prices in periods of lasting scarcity. Combination with financial power contracts as an insurance for the customer is an option that will be examined in a follow up project

  9. Legal fixing of the electricity market price; Die juristische Bestimmung des Marktpreises fuer Strom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindner, Thomas

    2011-07-01

    The book attempts to analyze the problems of fixing electricity rates by law and to develop an approach for determining the market price for electricity. The focus is on industrial customers as this is the sector in which the market price is of practical relevance. Private customers are gone into if necessary, as is the stock market price. The main problem in determining the free market price is the very fact that it is free, i.e. in contrast to the stock market price it is not fixed and published officially. The book therefore analyzes the abstract preconditions for determining the free market price. (orig./RHM)

  10. Analysis of relationships between hourly electricity price and load in deregulated real-time power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, K.L.; Wu, Y.K.

    2004-01-01

    Risk management in the electric power industry involves measuring the risk for all instruments owned by a company. The value of many of these instruments depends directly on electricity prices. In theory, the wholesale price in a real-time market should reflect the short-run marginal cost. However, most markets are not perfectly competitive, therefore by understanding the degree of correlation between price and physical drivers, electric traders and consumers can manage their risk more effectively and efficiently. Market data from two power-pool architectures, both pre-2003 ISO-NE and Australia's NEM, have been studied. The dynamic character of electricity price is mean-reverting, and consists of intra-day and weekly variations, seasonal fluctuations, and instant jumps. Parts of them are affected by load demands. Hourly signals on both price and load are divided into deterministic and random components with a discrete Fourier transform algorithm. Next, the real-time price-load relationship for periodic and random signals is examined. In addition, time-varying volatility models are constructed on random price and random load with the GARCH model, and the correlation between them analysed. Volatility plays a critical role on evaluating option pricing and risk management. (author)

  11. Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José R. Andrade

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

  12. The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

    2016-01-01

    The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

  13. Understanding the determinants of electricity prices and the impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoenes, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    This paper shows how the effect of fuel prices varies with the level of electricity demand. It analyzes the relationship between daily prices of electricity, natural gas and carbon emission allowances with a vector error correction model and a semiparametric varying smooth coefficient model. The results indicate that the electricity price adapts to fuel price changes in a long-term cointegration relationship. Different electricity generation technologies have distinct fuel price dependencies, which allows estimating the structure of the power plant portfolio by exploiting market prices. The semiparametric model indicates a technology switch from coal to gas at roughly 85% of maximum demand. It is used to analyze the market impact of the nuclear moratorium by the German Government in March 2011. Futures prices show that the market efficiently accounts for the suspended capacity and expects that several nuclear plants will not be switched on after the moratorium.

  14. Electricity price forecast using Combinatorial Neural Network trained by a new stochastic search method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abedinia, O.; Amjady, N.; Shafie-khah, M.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Presenting a Combinatorial Neural Network. • Suggesting a new stochastic search method. • Adapting the suggested method as a training mechanism. • Proposing a new forecast strategy. • Testing the proposed strategy on real-world electricity markets. - Abstract: Electricity price forecast is key information for successful operation of electricity market participants. However, the time series of electricity price has nonlinear, non-stationary and volatile behaviour and so its forecast method should have high learning capability to extract the complex input/output mapping function of electricity price. In this paper, a Combinatorial Neural Network (CNN) based forecasting engine is proposed to predict the future values of price data. The CNN-based forecasting engine is equipped with a new training mechanism for optimizing the weights of the CNN. This training mechanism is based on an efficient stochastic search method, which is a modified version of chemical reaction optimization algorithm, giving high learning ability to the CNN. The proposed price forecast strategy is tested on the real-world electricity markets of Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) and mainland Spain and its obtained results are extensively compared with the results obtained from several other forecast methods. These comparisons illustrate effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

  15. Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu [Department of Electrical and Electronics, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nagakami Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213 (Japan); Funabashi, Toshihisa [Meidensha Corporation, Tokyo 103-8515 (Japan)

    2006-09-15

    In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy. (author)

  16. Neural networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandal, Paras; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Funabashi, Toshihisa

    2006-01-01

    In daily power markets, forecasting electricity prices and loads are the most essential task and the basis for any decision making. An approach to predict the market behaviors is to use the historical prices, loads and other required information to forecast the future prices and loads. This paper introduces an approach for several hour ahead (1-6 h) electricity price and load forecasting using an artificial intelligence method, such as a neural network model, which uses publicly available data from the NEMMCO web site to forecast electricity prices and loads for the Victorian electricity market. An approach of selection of similar days is proposed according to which the load and price curves are forecasted by using the information of the days being similar to that of the forecast day. A Euclidean norm with weighted factors is used for the selection of the similar days. Two different ANN models, one for one to six hour ahead load forecasting and another for one to six hour ahead price forecasting have been proposed. The MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) results show a clear increasing trend with the increase in hour ahead load and price forecasting. The sample average of MAPEs for one hour ahead price forecasts is 9.75%. This figure increases to only 20.03% for six hour ahead predictions. Similarly, the one to six hour ahead load forecast errors (MAPE) range from 0.56% to 1.30% only. MAPE results show that several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in the deregulated Victorian market can be forecasted with reasonable accuracy

  17. The Impact of Emissions Trading on the Price of Electricity in Nord Pool : Market Power and Price Determination in the Nordic Electricity Market

    OpenAIRE

    Oranen, Anna

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this thesis is to find out how dominant firms in a liberalised electricity market will react when they face an increase in the level of costs due to emissions trading, and how this will effect the price of electricity. The Nordic electricity market is chosen as the setting in which to examine the question, since recent studies on the subject suggest that interaction between electricity markets and emissions trading is very much dependent on conditions specific to each market ...

  18. Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bask, Mikael; Widerberg, Anna

    2009-01-01

    By using a novel approach in this paper, (λ,σ 2 )-analysis, we have found that electricity prices most of the time have increased in stability and decreased in volatility when the Nordic power market has expanded and the degree of competition has increased. That electricity prices at Nord Pool have been generated by a stochastic dynamic system that most often has become more stable during the step-wise integration of the Nordic power market means that this market is less sensitive to shocks after the integration process than it was before this process. This is good news

  19. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  20. Do Daily Retail Gasoline Prices adjust Asymmetrically?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bettendorf, L. [Tinbergen Instituut, Amsterdam/Rotterdam (Netherlands); Van der Geest, S. [Erasmus Universiteit, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Kuper, G. [University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

    2005-04-15

    This paper analyzes adjustments in the Dutch retail gasoline prices. We estimate an error correction model on changes in the daily retail price for gasoline (taxes excluded) for the period 1996-2004 taking care of volatility clustering by estimating an EGARCH model. It turns out the volatility process is asymmetrical: an unexpected increase in the producer price has a larger effect on the variance of the producer price than an unexpected decrease. We do not find strong evidence for amount asymmetry. However, there is a faster reaction to upward changes in spot prices than to downward changes in spot prices. This implies timing or pattern asymmetry. This asymmetry starts three days after the change in the spot price and lasts for four days.

  1. Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; Smyth, Russell

    2010-01-01

    This paper employs annual data for Malaysia from 1970 to 2008 to examine the causal relationship between economic growth, electricity generation, exports and prices in a multivariate model. We find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity generation. However, neither the export-led nor handmaiden theories of trade are supported and there is no causal relationship between prices and economic growth. The policy implication of this result is that electricity conservation policies, including efficiency improvement measures and demand management policies, which are designed to reduce the wastage of electricity and curtail generation can be implemented without having an adverse effect on Malaysia's economic growth. (author)

  2. The effect of power distribution privatization on electricity prices in Turkey: Has liberalization served the purpose?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karahan, Hatice; Toptas, Mehmet

    2013-01-01

    Various electricity reforms have been adopted by a number of countries within the last 2 decades. Turkey, as one of those countries, has restructured its electricity market and intensively privatized the distribution companies. As one of the main targets of the liberalization efforts in the sector was announced to be reduced consumer prices, it is a matter of interest to look at the related developments after privatizations. Hence, this study attempts to explore the impact of power distribution privatization in Turkey on the national end-user electricity prices. Results of the analysis suggest that privatization of electricity distribution companies has not yielded the expected retail price declines within the first 4 years of the program. Whereas wholesale tariffs exhibit a reduction in the rate of 10%, retail tariffs show an increase of 5.9% within the period in question. Besides, the unstable patterns of the two tariffs imply that the market is not yet ready for the automatic pricing mechanism planned to be implemented based on a cost-reflective methodology. Therefore, results indicate that the factors behind the unsatisfactory outcomes of the program should be explored in order for the privatization efforts in the Turkish electricity distribution market to serve the purpose. - Highlights: • Privatization in electricity distribution has not reduced the retail prices in transition period in Turkey. • Changes in retail prices do not harmonize with those in wholesale prices in the electricity market. • The cost reflectiveness of the pricing system in the market is questionable. • The market does not seem to be ready yet for the automatic pricing mechanism. • The increase in distribution tariffs is not compatible with the targets of the liberalization program adopted for the Turkish electricity market

  3. The duty of buying electricity from renewable sources and from cogeneration versus purchasing prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piha, M.

    1992-01-01

    Electricity purchase prices are regulated and should not exceed the price at which electricity is purchased from the transmission system belonging to the dominant supplier, viz., the CEZ company. The suitability is discussed of the employed method of average price comparison. Drawbacks of such a comparison lie in the lower reliability of supplies from renewable sources, the necessity of having power reserves available for the case of renewable source failure, power supplies which are economically discriminated in favor of coal fired power plants based on costs which fail to cover simple reproduction, and failure to respect the supply prices in the different tariff classes. In fact, cost and price comparison is only reasonable if it concerns electricity supplies providing the same benefit and having the same or similar parameters and characteristics. Two approaches to the search of an optimum alternative are described, viz. the system approach, respecting the aspects of the complex integrated power system, and the market approach, which is based on the lowest operator's cost of electricity purchase. (J.B.). 1 tab

  4. Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

  5. A Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Wind Energy Penetration on Electricity Prices in Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    O'Flaherty, Micheál; Riordan, Niall; O'Neill, Noel; Ahern, Ciara

    2014-01-01

    The maturity of wind technology combined with availability of suitable sites means Ireland is on course to generate 40% of its electricity from the wind by 2020.This work sets out to quantify, to what degree, if any, increased wind penetration translates into reduced wholesale and retail prices for electricity. The consensus from the literature is that increasing wind penetration reduces wholesale electricity prices, but views vary as to what degree this translates into reduced retail prices ...

  6. Day-ahead deregulated electricity market price forecasting using neural network input featured by DCT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anbazhagan, S.; Kumarappan, N.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We presented DCT input featured FFNN model for forecasting in Spain market. • The key factors impacting electricity price forecasting are historical prices. • Past 42 days were trained and the next 7 days were forecasted. • The proposed approach has a simple and better NN structure. • The DCT-FFNN mode is effective and less computation time than the recent models. - Abstract: In a deregulated market, a number of factors determined the outcome of electricity price and displays a perplexed and maverick fluctuation. Both power producers and consumers needs single compact and robust price forecasting tool in order to maximize their profits and utilities. In order to achieve the helter–skelter kind of electricity price, one dimensional discrete cosine transforms (DCT) input featured feed-forward neural network (FFNN) is modeled (DCT-FFNN). The proposed FFNN is a single compact and robust architecture (without hybridizing the various hard and soft computing models). It has been predicted that the DCT-FFNN model is close to the state of the art can be achieved with less computation time. The proposed DCT-FFNN approach is compared with 17 other recent approaches to estimate the market clearing prices of mainland Spain. Finally, the accuracy of the price forecasting is also applied to the electricity market of New York in year 2010 that shows the effectiveness of the proposed DCT-FFNN approach

  7. Electricity distribution. Price control, reliability and customer services: response to OFFER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-02-01

    This document presents the views of the National Consumer Council to a recent consultation paper from OFFER, the body responsible for regulation of the United Kingdom electric power industry. The financial performance of the Regional Electricity Companies (RECs) is reviewed by examining how it relates to the prices paid by domestic consumers. A critical analysis is presented of OFFER's notion of the revision of the existing price control mechanism for the distribution businesses within the RECs. Standards of performance, debt and consumer disconnection are also examined. (UK)

  8. A Three-Part Electricity Price Mechanism for Photovoltaic-Battery Energy Storage Power Plants Considering the Power Quality and Ancillary Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yajing Gao

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problem of solar abandoning, which is accompanied by the rapid development of photovoltaic (PV power generation, a demonstration of a photovoltaic-battery energy storage system (PV-BESS power plant has been constructed in Qinghai province in China. However, it is difficult for the PV-BESS power plant to survive and develop with the current electricity price mechanism and subsidy policy. In this paper, a three-part electricity price mechanism is proposed based on a deep analysis of the construction and operation costs and economic income. The on-grid electricity price is divided into three parts: the capacity price, graded electricity price, and ancillary service price. First, to ensure that the investment of the PV-BESS power plant would achieve the industry benchmark income, the capacity price and benchmark electricity price are calculated using the discounted cash flow method. Then, the graded electricity price is calculated according to the grade of the quality of grid-connected power. Finally, the ancillary service price is calculated based on the graded electricity price and ancillary service compensation. The case studies verify the validity of the three-part electricity price mechanism. The verification shows that the three-part electricity price mechanism can help PV-BESS power plants to obtain good economic returns, which can promote the development of PV-BESS power plants.

  9. Potential impacts assessment of plug-in electric vehicles on the Portuguese energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camus, C.; Farias, T.; Esteves, J.

    2011-01-01

    Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. In this research, scenarios for 2020 EVs penetration and charging profiles are studied integrated with different hypotheses for electricity production mix. The impacts in load profiles, spot electricity prices and emissions are obtained for the Portuguese case study. Simulations for year 2020, in a scenario of low hydro production and high prices, resulted in energy costs for EVs recharge of 20 cents/kWh, with 2 million EVs charging mainly at evening peak hours. On the other hand, in an off-peak recharge, a high hydro production and low wholesale prices' scenario, recharge costs could be reduced to 5.6 cents/kWh. In these extreme cases, EV's energy prices were between 0.9 Euro to 3.2 Euro per 100 km. Reductions in primary energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO 2 emissions of up to 3%, 14% and 10%, respectively, were verified (for a 2 million EVs' penetration and a dry year's off-peak recharge scenario) from the transportation and electricity sectors together when compared with a BAU scenario without EVs. - Highlights: → EVs and PHEVs impacts in energy, power profiles and spot electricity prices. → Reductions in primary energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO 2 emissions. → Electricity production with more % of fossil fuels technologies and renewable ones. → Comparison between extreme charging profiles, peak and off-peak, in charging cost.

  10. Gas and electricity prices in France and in the European Union in 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Jean-Philippe

    2013-11-01

    Graphs and tables illustrate the levels and the evolution of gas and electricity prices in France and in EU member states. It is notably outlined that gas is less expensive in central and eastern Europe, that gas prices generally increased in Europe between 2011 and 2012 (for industries as well as for households), that electricity remains cheap in France

  11. Modeling and forecasting electricity price jumps in the Nord Pool power market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knapik, Oskar

    extreme prices and forecasting of the price jumps is crucial for risk management and market design. In this paper, we consider the problem of the impact of fundamental price drivers on forecasting of price jumps in NordPool intraday market. We develop categorical time series models which take into account......For risk management traders in the electricity market are mainly interested in the risk of negative (drops) or of positive (spikes) price jumps, i.e. the sellers face the risk of negative price jumps while the buyers face the risk of positive price jumps. Understanding the mechanism that drive...

  12. Operation of Modern Distribution Power Systems in Competitive Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao

    , DG units, loads and electricity price are studied. Further, the effect of energy storage systems will be considered, and an optimal operation strategy for energy storage devices in a large scale wind power system in the electricity market is proposed. The western Danish power system, which has large...... strategy for trading wind power in the Danish short-term electricity market in order to minimize the imbalance costs for regulation. A load optimization method based on spot price for demand side management in Denmark is proposed in order to save the energy costs for 3 types of typical Danish consumers...... maximum profit of the BESS is proposed. Two kinds of BESS, based on polysulfide-bromine (PSB) and vanadium redox (VRB) battery technologies, are studied. Optimal operation strategies of PEV in the spot market are then proposed in order to decrease the energy cost for PEV owners. Furthermore...

  13. Investments and price formation in a liberalized electric power market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morthorst, P.E.

    2005-05-01

    How will the electric power prices in the Nordic electric power market develop if the generation capacity in the coming 10 to 15 years is increased considerably? And what are the conditions for investors to initiate new investments in power plants? Briefly speaking - these are the issues for the project that is reported in this report. The basis for the project has been the Nordic electric power market model and its capability to handle the future extension of the necessary generating capacity. The main issue in the project has been a quantitative analysis of what the prices in the Nordic electric power market will be in the future, depending on the size of new investments in the power generating capacity. Using the Balmorel model, a basic scenario until the year 2020 is made which contains the present decisions about capacity extension only. Up to 2010 this basic scenario can be seen as a probable development. For the period 2010 to 2020, however, the calculations can primarily be seen as illustrations of how the prices may develop, provided that no further investments are made. Thus, for the period 2010 - 2020 it is a 'worst case' that has been analysed. In the basic scenario several cases for the year 2015 are analysed, among others the consequences of wet and dry years and an unusually cold winter. The project also analyses how the price development impacts the profitability of new investments in power capacity, depending on several exogenous events, like use of more wind power and the price on the carbon dioxide market. The analyses present three cases: 1) A single investor not owing other power plants, 2) a single investor owing a number of power plants in which case a new plant will compete with him self, 3) two competing investors investing in the same known power plants. In all cases investments are made in a natural gas combined cycle plant producing both electric power and heat. Furthermore, the investor's own possibility to time his investment has been

  14. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  15. Using forward markets to improve electricity market design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ausubel, Lawrence M.; Cramton, Peter [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)

    2010-12-15

    Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. (author)

  16. Day-Ahead Energy Planning with 100% Electric Vehicle Penetration in the Nordic Region by 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaoxi Liu

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the day-ahead energy planning of passenger cars with 100% electric vehicle (EV penetration in the Nordic region by 2050. EVs will play an important role in the future energy systems which can both reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from the transport sector and provide the demand side flexibility required by smart grids. On the other hand, the EVs will increase the electricity consumption. In order to quantify the electricity consumption increase due to the 100% EV penetration in the Nordic region to facilitate the power system planning studies, the day-ahead energy planning of EVs has been investigated with different EV charging scenarios. Five EV charging scenarios have been considered in the energy planning analysis which are: uncontrolled charging all day, uncontrolled charging at home, timed charging, spot price based charging all day and spot price based charging at home. The demand profiles of the five charging analysis show that timed charging is the least favorable charging option and the spot priced based EV charging might induce high peak demands. The EV charging demand will have a considerable share of the energy consumption in the future Nordic power system.

  17. Carbon price signal. Impact Analysis on the European Electricity System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries late in December 2015, after COP 21, created a new basis for efficient cooperation between countries in the fight against climate change. The technologies being rolled out by the electricity sector will have very different impacts on climate change and, for the time being, investments other than public aid for renewable energies are being guided primarily by prices. To shed more slight on the issue of greenhouse gas emissions, which is closely related to the challenges addressed at COP21, RTE initiated a study in 2015 based on the models used in its Generation Adequacy Report. ADEME wanted to contribute to this effort and offer its support. The present document outlines the approach taken to assessing the impact of the carbon price signal on emissions from the European electric power system, its production costs and its structural evolution over the medium term. This approach was discussed with members of the 'Network Outlook Committee' of the Transmission System Users' Committee which includes environmental NGOs as well as the main economic actors from the power sector. Key findings resulting from the analysis developed in this report include: Simulations conducted with the current generation fleet show that the carbon price would have to be close to euro 30/tonne at the European level to drive a significant reduction in emissions (about 100 million tonnes a year, or 15 %) from the European power sector. A higher price of about euro 100/tonne would help drive an emissions reduction of close to 30%. Over the medium and long terms, beyond an impact on the number of hours fossil fuel power plants would be run, having a high carbon price would send a signal encouraging investment in renewable energies and could incentivise the development of flexible and storage capacity. It would notably guarantee the profitability of gas-fired plants and renewable power development. The following assumptions are factored into the study

  18. The influence of global benchmark oil prices on the regional oil spot market in multi-period evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Meihui; An, Haizhong; Jia, Xiaoliang; Sun, Xiaoqi

    2017-01-01

    Crude benchmark oil prices play a crucial role in energy policy and investment management. Previous research confined itself to studying the static, uncertain, short- or long-term relationship between global benchmark oil prices, ignoring the time-varying, quantitative, dynamic nature of the relationship during various stages of oil price volatility. This paper proposes a novel approach combining grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet analysis, and Bayesian network modeling to explore the multi-period evolution of the dynamic relationship between global benchmark oil prices and regional oil spot price. We analyze the evolution of the most significant decision-making risk periods, as well as the combined strategy-making reference oil prices and the corresponding periods during various stages of volatility. Furthermore, we determine that the network evolution of the quantitative lead/lag relationship between different influences of global benchmark oil prices shows a multi-period evolution phenomenon. For policy makers and market investors, our combined model can provide decision-making periods with the lowest expected risk and decision-making target reference oil prices and corresponding weights for strategy adjustment and market arbitrage. This study provides further information regarding period weights of target reference oil prices, facilitating efforts to perform multi-agent energy policy and intertemporal market arbitrage. - Highlights: • Multi-period evolution of the influence of different oil prices is discovered. • We combined grey relation analysis, optimization wavelet and Bayesian network. • The intensity of volatility, synchronization, and lead/lag effects are analyzed. • The target reference oil prices and corresponding period weights are determined.

  19. Research of Charging(Discharging Orderly and Optimizing Load Curve for Electric Vehicles Based on Dynamic Electric Price and V2G

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Shuai

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Firstly, using the Monte Carlo method and simulation analysis, this paper builds models for the behaviour of electric vehicles, the conventional charging model and the fast charging model. Secondly, this paper studies the impact that the number of electric vehicles which get access to power grid has on the daily load curve. Then, the paper put forwards a dynamic pricing mechanism of electricity, and studies how this dynamic pricing mechanism guides the electric vehicles to charge orderly. Last but not the least, the paper presents a V2G mechanism. Under this mechanism, electric vehicles can charge orderly and take part in the peak shaving. Research finds that massive electric vehicles’ access to the power grid will increase the peak-valley difference of daily load curve. Dynamic pricing mechanism and V2G mechanism can effectively lead the electric vehicles to take part in peak-shaving, and optimize the daily load curve.

  20. NordREG report on the price peaks in the Nordic wholesale market during winter 2009-2010. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-01-15

    In winter 2009-2010, prices peaked on three days. The high prices that were experienced in the majority of the Nord Pool Spot price areas initiated a study on the reasons that led to the price spikes and on the possible measures to develop the Nordic market arrangements to avoid such situations in the future. The analysis of the winter 2009-2010 events revealed that there were a number of primary causes for the occurrence of the price peaks and no single individual cause could be pinpointed to bear the key responsibility. The fact that the weather was cold all over the Nordic area in conjunction with the low availability for the Swedish nuclear generation capacity, however, could be indicated as the key underlying causes. The analysis also showed that the way the Nordic transmission capacity is allocated can be listed as an additional factor complementing to the occurrence of the price peaks. Thus, NordREG concluded that a review of the methods of calculating and allocating transmission capacity for the market should be carried out. As a part of this, an analysis that addresses the delimitation of bidding areas and maintenance planning of the transmission network infrastructure should be prepared as well. The flexibility on the demand side has not been very large in the Nordic region. However, the background study prepared by Gaia Consulting showed that even small degree of increased price elasticity could substantially cut the price peaks. This could be seen as an improvement potential of the trading system reflecting the present inability of the market participants to react on the price signals the market place provides. Therefore, NordREG sees that facilitating the appearance of a real price elastic behaviour of the users of electricity can be regarded as one of the key fixes for the problem. Furthermore, NordREG proposes that a consultancy study on how to promote demand flexibility in the Nordic market in a coherent way should be prepared. A further area for

  1. 7 CFR 27.96 - Quotations in bona fide spot markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Quotations in bona fide spot markets. 27.96 Section 27... Differences § 27.96 Quotations in bona fide spot markets. The price or value and differences between the price... determined by the sale of spot cotton in such spot market. Quotations shall be determined and maintained in...

  2. Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas. A Real-Time Analysis of market integration using the Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siliverstovs, Boriss; Neumann, Anne

    2005-01-01

    This paper provides a textbook example of an econometric analysis of the integration between two commodity markets and the subsequent price convergence or absence thereof. We analyze price relations between spot markets for natural gas in Europe. The European market for natural gas is currently undergoing a liberalization process with the aim of creating a single, unified market. We use time-varying coefficient estimation models, applying the Kalman filter to test whether price convergence between different locations is really taking place. Our results reveal that the construction of a pipeline between the UK and Zeebrugge (Belgium) has lead to almost perfect price convergence between theses locations; on the other hand, liberalization on the European continent does not seem to be working so far. (Author)

  3. Carbon price instead of support schemes: wind power investments by the electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petitet, Marie; Finon, Dominique; Janssen, Tanguy

    2014-10-01

    In this paper we study the development of wind power by the electricity market without any usual support scheme which is aimed at subsidizing non mature renewables, with the sole incentive of a significant carbon price. Long term electricity market and investment decisions simulation by system dynamics modelling is used to trace the electricity generation mix evolution over a 20-year period in a pure thermal system. A range of stable carbon price, as a tax could be, is tested in order to determine the value above which wind power development by market forces becomes economically possible. Not only economic competitiveness in terms of cost price, but also profitability against traditional fossil fuel technologies are necessary for a market-driven development of wind power. Results stress that wind power is really profitable for investors only if the carbon price is very significantly higher than the price required for making wind power MWh's cost price competitive with CCGT and coal-fired plants on the simplistic basis of levelized costs. In this context, the market-driven development of wind power seems only possible if there is a strong commitment to climate policy, reflected by the preference for a stable and high carbon price rather than a fuzzy price of an emission trading scheme. Besides, results show that market-driven development of wind power would require a sky-rocketing carbon price if the initial technology mix includes a share of nuclear plants even with a moratorium on new nuclear development. (authors)

  4. Rise of energy prices: why and up to how much?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maillard, D.; Gonnot, F.M.

    2004-01-01

    This article is a presentation given by D. Maillard, general director of the general direction of energy and raw materials (DGEMP) of the French ministry of economy, finances and industry (Minefi), at the occasion of a colloquium held in Paris on December 8, 2004, and organised by the energy and development club. In his talk, D. Maillard explains the reasons of the rise of energy prices in 2004: international factors (volatility of the oil and gas markets) and European factors (liberalization and re-structuration of the electricity market, spot prices, increase of demand). (J.S.)

  5. Sensitivity of portuguese electricity market prices to solar PV penetration : an analysis of 2016 prices

    OpenAIRE

    Cordeiro De Sousa, João

    2017-01-01

    The reduction in price of solar PV technology led, in the recent years, multiple investors to apply for installing new solar PV power plants in Portugal which would operate without subsidies or feed-in-tari s. In 2016 it was reported the approval of construction of such power plants and given the low variable cost of this technology it is expected that their penetration would reduce the electricity market prices. Hence, before doing the economic assessment of potential new sola...

  6. Consumer Behavior towards Scheduling and Pricing of Electric Cars Recharging: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fetene, Gebeyehu Manie

    electric cars. The last chapter deals with analysis of energy consumption rate and its determinants of electric cars under the hands of customers. A variety of techniques are used including analysis of field data, economics laboratory experiments and theoretical modeling with simulation. Chapter one...... and Pricing of Electric Vehicle Recharging’, proposes, and tests at laboratory, contracts about recharging BEVs combining the ultimatum game framework and the myopic loss aversion (MLA) behavioral hypothesis. The model represents the behavior of EV-owners trading-off between the amount of the discount on fee...... price as long-term contracts may curtail MLA behavior and help BEV owners to choose cost minimizing recharging time and, simultaneously, may help to reduce BEVs impact on the electricity grid system. The fourth chapter, ‘Using the Peer Effect in Scheduling and Pricing Electric Vehicles Recharging...

  7. Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

  8. The prerequisites for effective competition in restructured wholesale electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haas, R.; Auer, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper argues that effective competition in reformed wholesale electricity markets can only be achieved if the following six prerequisites are met: (1) separation of the grid from generation and supply; (2) wholesale price deregulation; (3) sufficient transmission capacity for a competitive market and non-discriminating grid access; (4) excess generation capacity developed by a large number of competing generators; (5) an equilibrium relationship between short-term spot markets and the long-term financial instruments that marketers use to manage spot-market price volatility; (6) an essentially hands-off government policy that encompasses reduced oversight and privatization. The absence of any one of the first five conditions may result in an oligopoly or monopoly market whose economic performance does not meet the efficiency standards of a competently managed regulated electrical utility. (author)

  9. Research on Double Price Regulations and Peak Shaving Reserve Mechanism in Coal-Electricity Supply Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjun Peng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The game models were used to study the mechanism of coal-electricity price conflict under conditions of double price regulations of coal and electricity. Based on this, the peak shaving reserve mechanism was designed to probe into the countermeasures against the coal-electricity price conflicts. The study revealed that in the boom seasons of coal demand, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal and the electricity enterprises to order thermal coal are reduced under conditions of double price regulations. However, under the circumstances of coal price marketization, in the boom seasons of coal demand the thermal coal price may go up obviously, the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply thermal coal are increased, and meanwhile the initiatives of the power enterprises to order thermal coal are decreased dramatically. The transportation capacity constraint of coal supply leads to the evident decrease of the initiatives of coal enterprises for the thermal coal supply. The mechanism of peak shaving reserve of thermal coal may not only reduce the price of coal market but also increase the enthusiasm of the power enterprises to order more thermal coal and the initiatives of the coal enterprises to supply more thermal coal.

  10. Sensitivity of district heating system operation to heat demand reductions and electricity price variations: A Swedish example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Åberg, M.; Widén, J.; Henning, D.

    2012-01-01

    In the future, district heating companies in Sweden must adapt to energy efficiency measures in buildings and variable fuel and electricity prices. Swedish district heating demands are expected to decrease by 1–2% per year and electricity price variations seem to be more unpredictable in the future. A cost-optimisation model of a Swedish local district heating system is constructed using the optimisation modelling tool MODEST. A scenario for heat demand changes due to increased energy efficiency in buildings, combined with the addition of new buildings, is studied along with a sensitivity analysis for electricity price variations. Despite fears that heat demand reductions will decrease co-generation of clean electricity and cause increased global emissions, the results show that anticipated heat demand changes do not increase the studied system's primary energy use or global CO 2 emissions. The results further indicate that the heat production plants and the fuels used within the system have crucial importance for the environmental impact of district heat use. Results also show that low seasonal variations in electricity price levels with relatively low winter prices promote the use of electric heat pumps. High winter prices on the other hand promote co-generation of heat and electricity in CHP plants. -- Highlights: ► A MODEST optimisation model of the Uppsala district heating system is built. ► The impact of heat demand change on heat and electricity production is examined. ► An electricity price level sensitivity analysis for district heating is performed. ► Heat demand changes do not increase the primary energy use or global CO 2 emissions. ► Low winter prices promote use of electric heat pumps for district heating production.

  11. Evolution of electricity prices for households in Western Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruciani, Michel

    2011-11-01

    The author reports a study of the evolution of electricity prices in the housing sector since the 1990's in the 15 countries who were then members of the European Union (Germany, Denmark, Spain, Belgium, Sweden, Austria, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, United Kingdom, Finland, France and Greece). In a first part, he discusses trends and proposes some comparisons which show that the electricity price has been remaining almost steady for 15 years, and has much less increased that those of gas and oil products. He notices a rather large discrepancy between the 15 countries (a comparison takes taxes into account, and comparison is made with tax included or excluded). The second part proposes an analysis of the evolutions and influences of national energy policies for each country

  12. An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tolis, Athanasios I.; Rentizelas, Athanasios A.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The impact of electricity and CO 2 allowance pricing in power sector is researched. → A stochastic programming approach without recourse is used for the optimisation. → Higher electricity prices may be proportionally beneficial for the power system. → The CO 2 allowance prices may be inversely proportionate with the expected yields. → High CO 2 allowance prices are inhibitors for conventional technology projects. -- Abstract: The present work concerns a systematic investigation of power sector portfolios through discrete scenarios of electricity and CO 2 allowance prices. The analysis is performed for different prices, from regulated to completely deregulated markets, thus representing different electricity market policies. The modelling approach is based on a stochastic programming algorithm without recourse, used for the optimisation of power sector economics under multiple uncertainties. A sequential quadratic programming routine is applied for the entire investigation period whilst the time-dependent objective function is subject to various social and production constraints, usually confronted in power sectors. The analysis indicated the optimal capacity additions that should be annually ordered from each competitive technology in order to substantially improve both the economy and the sustainability of the system. It is confirmed that higher electricity prices lead to higher financial yields of power production, irrespective of the CO 2 allowance price level. Moreover, by following the proposed licensing planning, a medium-term reduction of CO 2 emissions per MW h by 30% might be possible. Interestingly, the combination of electricity prices subsidisation with high CO 2 allowance prices may provide favourable conditions for investors willing to engage on renewable energy markets.

  13. Pricing of contract options for electric power; Precificacao de contrato de opcoes de energia eletrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takahashi, Leticia; Gunn, Laura Keiko; Correia, Paulo B. [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (FEM/UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Fac. de Engenharia Mecanica. Dept. de Energia

    2008-07-01

    The reorganization of the electric sector has improved the opportunity of energy trade through contracts, which have to be considered on the risk evaluation for generating companies. Different types of contracts have been used in electric energy commercialization. This work develops a model for option contract pricing. The classic model of options pricing used in the financial market is based in Black- Scholes. Due to the inherent feature of the Brazilian electrical system, with a strong predominance of hydroelectricity, the seasonal swing of the electricity price is the main source of contractual risk. So, the Black-Scholes model very is not adjusted. To deal with the uncertainties, this work uses an approach based on analysis of scenarios and binomial trees. Case studies are analyzed with binomial tree to calculate the price of the option contract. (author)

  14. Hydrogen from nuclear plus wind using real-time electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, A.I.; Duffey, R.B.; Fairlie, M.; Anders, P.

    2004-01-01

    During the early years of hydrogen's use as a vehicle fuel, penetration of the market will be small. This favours distributed production by electrolysis, which avoids the scale-dependent costs of distribution from centralized plants. For electrolysis actually to be the preferred option, capital equipment for electrolysis must be reasonably cheap but the dominant cost component is the electricity price. By about 2006, advanced designs of nuclear reactors should be available to produce electricity at around 30 US$/MW.h at the plant gate. The best approach to producing low-cost electrolytic hydrogen is shown to be use of such reactors to supply electricity to the grid at times of peak price and demand and to make hydrogen at other times In this paper, this model has been used to calculate the production costs for electrolytic hydrogen at the location where the electricity is generated, using the actual prices of electricity paid by the Alberta Power Pool in 2002 and 2003 and by the Ontario Grid for 2003. The analysis shows clearly that by optimizing the co-production of hydrogen and electricity (referred to as the H 2 /e process) the cost for hydrogen produced can comfortably meet the US Department of Energy's target of 2000 US$/tonne. Because of its lower availability factor, wind-produced electricity cannot meet this cost target. However, if wind power availability can reach 35%, an intermittent supplementary current of wind-generated electricity may economically be fed to an electrolytic plant primarily supplied by nuclear power. Additional current raises the voltage for electrolysis but there would be only small additional capital costs. The two non-CO 2 -emitting sources, nuclear and wind could become complementary, providing an affordable way of storing wind-generated electricity when the supply exceeds demand in electricity markets The analyses presented in this paper looks at the case of bulk production of H 2 /e in a 'wholesale' energy market and does not

  15. The impact of the development of external markets for electricity on the domestic price in Quebec

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    St-Amour, Y.

    1990-03-01

    A study was conducted to establish the sensitivity of the average price of electricity in the domestic Quebec market with respect to the volume of electricity exported. Economic data are presented on electricity in relation to other forms of energy in the northwest North American continental framework. The state of electricity exports and the hydroelectric potential of Quebec with respect to the capacity of neighboring networks to utilize this potential are discussed. CANREM (Canadian Regionalized Electricity Model) is described and used to simulate the effect of electric power exports on the Quebec electricity price over a 23-year period starting in 1987. Three simulation scenarios are presented and analyzed. The results obtained indicate a significant increase in the domestic price during the time that generation and transmission installation is being carried out. In contrast, during the years when service is offered, the slowing of the increase in the price of electricity is the determining factor with regard to the net social gain which can be achieved over the long term for Quebec society. 75 refs., 10 figs., 18 tabs

  16. Characteristics of the prices of operating reserves and regulation services in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Peng; Zareipour, Hamidreza; Rosehart, William D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, characteristics of the prices of reserves and regulation services in the Ontario, New York and ERCOT electricity markets are studied. More specifically, price variability, price jumps, long-range correlation, and non-linearity of the prices are analyzed using the available measures in the literature. For the Ontario electricity market, the prices of 10-min spinning, 10-min non-spinning, and 30-min operating reserves for the period May 1, 2002 to December 31, 2007 are analyzed. For the New York market, prices of the same reserves plus regulation service are studied for the period February 5, 2005 to December 31, 2008. For the ERCOT market, we analyze the prices of responsive reserve, regulation up and regulation down services, for the period January 1, 2005 to December 31, 2009. The studied characteristics of operating reserve and regulation prices are also compared with those of energy prices. The findings of this paper show that the studied reserve and regulation prices feature extreme volatility, more frequent jumps and spikes, different peak price occurrence time, and lower predictability, compared to the energy prices. - Research highlights: → We examine various statistical characteristics of reserve and regulation prices. → We compare characteristics of reserve and regulation and energy prices. → Reserve and regulation prices feature different patterns from energy prices. → Reserve and regulation prices are more dispersive and volatile than energy price.

  17. Intraday price dynamics in spot and derivatives markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jun Sik; Ryu, Doojin

    2014-01-01

    This study examines intraday relationships among the spot index, index futures, and the implied volatility index based on the VAR(1)-asymmetric BEKK-MGARCH model. Analysis of a high-frequency dataset from the Korean financial market confirms that there is a strong intraday market linkage between the spot index, KOSPI200 futures, and VKOSPI and that asymmetric volatility behaviour is clearly present in the Korean market. The empirical results indicate that the futures return shock affects the spot market more severely than the spot return shock affects the futures market, though there is a bi-directional causal relationship between the spot and futures markets. Our results, based on a high-quality intraday dataset, satisfy both the positive risk-return relationship and asymmetric volatility effect, which are not reconciled in the frameworks of previous studies.

  18. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  19. Wealth Transfers Among Large Customers from Implementing Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Borenstein, Severin

    2007-01-01

    Adoption of real-time electricity pricing — retail prices that vary hourly to reflect changing wholesale prices — removes existing cross-subsidies to those customers that consume disproportionately more when wholesale prices are highest. If their losses are substantial, these customers are likely to oppose RTP initiatives unless there is a supplemental program to offset their loss. Using data on a sample of 1142 large industrial and commercial customers in northern California, I show that RTP...

  20. Power System Transient Stability Improvement Using Demand Side Management in Competitive Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Wang, Chunqi; Chen, Zhe

    2012-01-01

    Since the hourly spot market price is available one day ahead in Denmark, the price could be transferred to the consumers and they may shift some of their loads from high price periods to the low price periods in order to save their energy costs. The optimal load response to an electricity price...... for demand side management generates different load profiles and may provide an opportunity to improve the transient stability of power systems with high wind power penetrations. In this paper, the idea of the power system transient stability improvement by using optimal load response to the electricity...... price is proposed. A 102-bus power system which represents a simplified model of the western Danish power system is chosen as the study case. Simulation results show that the optimal load response to electricity prices is an effective measure to improve the power system transient stability with high...