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Sample records for effectively indexing uncertain

  1. Effectively Indexing Uncertain Moving Objects for Predictive Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Meihui; Chen, Su; Jensen, Christian Søndergaard

    2009-01-01

    in more complex and stochastic ways. This paper investigates the possibility of a marriage between moving-object indexing and probabilistic object modelling. Given the distributions of the current locations and velocities of moving objects, we devise an efficient inference method for the prediction...

  2. Specificity of indexes of malnutrition when applied to apparently healthy people: the effect of age

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Naber, T.H.J.; Bree, de A.; Schermer, T.R.J.; Bakkeren, J.; Bör, B.; Wild, de G.; Katan, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    Protein-energy malnutrition is thought to be widespread in hospitalized patients. However, the specificity of indexes used to assess malnutrition is uncertain. We therefore assessed the rate of false-positive diagnoses of malnutrition when biochemical-anthropometric indexes were applied to healthy

  3. Data Envelopment Analysis with Uncertain Inputs and Outputs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meilin Wen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA, as a useful management and decision tool, has been widely used since it was first invented by Charnes et al. in 1978. On the one hand, the DEA models need accurate inputs and outputs data. On the other hand, in many situations, inputs and outputs are volatile and complex so that they are difficult to measure in an accurate way. The conflict leads to the researches of uncertain DEA models. This paper will consider DEA in uncertain environment, thus producing a new model based on uncertain measure. Due to the complexity of the new uncertain DEA model, an equivalent deterministic model is presented. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the uncertain DEA model.

  4. Uncertain differential equations

    CERN Document Server

    Yao, Kai

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces readers to the basic concepts of and latest findings in the area of differential equations with uncertain factors. It covers the analytic method and numerical method for solving uncertain differential equations, as well as their applications in the field of finance. Furthermore, the book provides a number of new potential research directions for uncertain differential equation. It will be of interest to researchers, engineers and students in the fields of mathematics, information science, operations research, industrial engineering, computer science, artificial intelligence, automation, economics, and management science.

  5. Ranking Queries on Uncertain Data

    CERN Document Server

    Hua, Ming

    2011-01-01

    Uncertain data is inherent in many important applications, such as environmental surveillance, market analysis, and quantitative economics research. Due to the importance of those applications and rapidly increasing amounts of uncertain data collected and accumulated, analyzing large collections of uncertain data has become an important task. Ranking queries (also known as top-k queries) are often natural and useful in analyzing uncertain data. Ranking Queries on Uncertain Data discusses the motivations/applications, challenging problems, the fundamental principles, and the evaluation algorith

  6. Processing Uncertain RFID Data in Traceability Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Xie

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Radio Frequency Identification (RFID is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries.

  7. Processing uncertain RFID data in traceability supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Dong; Xiao, Jie; Guo, Guangjun; Jiang, Tong

    2014-01-01

    Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is widely used to track and trace objects in traceability supply chains. However, massive uncertain data produced by RFID readers are not effective and efficient to be used in RFID application systems. Following the analysis of key features of RFID objects, this paper proposes a new framework for effectively and efficiently processing uncertain RFID data, and supporting a variety of queries for tracking and tracing RFID objects. We adjust different smoothing windows according to different rates of uncertain data, employ different strategies to process uncertain readings, and distinguish ghost, missing, and incomplete data according to their apparent positions. We propose a comprehensive data model which is suitable for different application scenarios. In addition, a path coding scheme is proposed to significantly compress massive data by aggregating the path sequence, the position, and the time intervals. The scheme is suitable for cyclic or long paths. Moreover, we further propose a processing algorithm for group and independent objects. Experimental evaluations show that our approach is effective and efficient in terms of the compression and traceability queries.

  8. Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

    2015-10-01

    In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

  9. Frequent Symptom Sets Identification from Uncertain Medical Data in Differentially Private Way

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Ding

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Data mining techniques are applied to identify hidden patterns in large amounts of patient data. These patterns can assist physicians in making more accurate diagnosis. For different physical conditions of patients, the same physiological index corresponds to a different symptom association probability for each patient. Data mining technologies based on certain data cannot be directly applied to these patients’ data. Patient data are sensitive data. An adversary with sufficient background information can make use of the patterns mined from uncertain medical data to obtain the sensitive information of patients. In this paper, a new algorithm is presented to determine the top K most frequent itemsets from uncertain medical data and to protect data privacy. Based on traditional algorithms for mining frequent itemsets from uncertain data, our algorithm applies sparse vector algorithm and the Laplace mechanism to ensure differential privacy for the top K most frequent itemsets for uncertain medical data and the expected supports of these frequent itemsets. We prove that our algorithm can guarantee differential privacy in theory. Moreover, we carry out experiments with four real-world scenario datasets and two synthetic datasets. The experimental results demonstrate the performance of our algorithm.

  10. Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

    2017-02-01

    Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

  11. EFFECT OF HIGH & LOW INTENSITIES OF AEROBIC EXERCISE ON PHYSICAL FITNESS INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhusudhan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Aerobic exercise reduces body fat and improves weight control, increases HDL&Vo2 max. Also improves PFI (physical fitness index which is defined as ability to carry out daily tasks with vigour and alertness without undue fatigue. Though aerobic exercise is found to improve physical fitness, the relative merits of different intensities of aerobi c exercise in improving physical fitness is still uncertain. AIM: The present study was conducted to know the Effect of High & low intensity aerobic training on physical fitness index. MATERIALS & METHODS : 80 sedentary men (18 - 40 years were randomized in to 2 equal groups (High Intensity & low intensity group . The High [80% HR max] & Low intensity [50 % HR max] groups underwent aerobic exercise training using Bicycle ergo meter (COSCO at 900kpm & 540kpm, for 15mins/day & 30mins/day respectively, 5days a week, for a period of 14weeks. Physical fitness index of each subject was recorded by Modified Harvard step test before & after intervention. RESULTS : After 14 weeks of aerobic training both the exercise groups had improvement in PFI, but high intensity gr oup had a significant (p<0.05 improvement in PFI (97.18 - 101.14 than low intensity group (98.12 - 100.6. CONCLUSION : High intensity aerobic exercise is effective in improving physical fitness.

  12. Synchronization of uncertain time-varying network based on sliding mode control technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Bai, Suyuan; Li, Gang; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan; Yan, Zhe

    2017-09-01

    We research synchronization of uncertain time-varying network based on sliding mode control technique. The sliding mode control technique is first modified so that it can be applied to network synchronization. Further, by choosing the appropriate sliding surface, the identification law of uncertain parameter, the adaptive law of the time-varying coupling matrix element and the control input of network are designed, it is sure that the uncertain time-varying network can synchronize effectively the synchronization target. At last, we perform some numerical simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  13. Decentralized H∞ Control for Uncertain Interconnected Systems of Neutral Type via Dynamic Output Feedback

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heli Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The design of the dynamic output feedback H∞ control for uncertain interconnected systems of neutral type is investigated. In the framework of Lyapunov stability theory, a mathematical technique dealing with the nonlinearity on certain matrix variables is developed to obtain the solvability conditions for the anticipated controller. Based on the corresponding LMIs, the anticipated gains for dynamic output feedback can be achieved by solving some algebraic equations. Also, the norm of the transfer function from the disturbance input to the controlled output is less than the given index. A numerical example and the simulation results are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  14. Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorella Fatone

    2012-01-01

    model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

  15. Possible world based consistency learning model for clustering and classifying uncertain data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Han; Zhang, Xianchao; Zhang, Xiaotong

    2018-06-01

    Possible world has shown to be effective for handling various types of data uncertainty in uncertain data management. However, few uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms are proposed based on possible world. Moreover, existing possible world based algorithms suffer from the following issues: (1) they deal with each possible world independently and ignore the consistency principle across different possible worlds; (2) they require the extra post-processing procedure to obtain the final result, which causes that the effectiveness highly relies on the post-processing method and the efficiency is also not very good. In this paper, we propose a novel possible world based consistency learning model for uncertain data, which can be extended both for clustering and classifying uncertain data. This model utilizes the consistency principle to learn a consensus affinity matrix for uncertain data, which can make full use of the information across different possible worlds and then improve the clustering and classification performance. Meanwhile, this model imposes a new rank constraint on the Laplacian matrix of the consensus affinity matrix, thereby ensuring that the number of connected components in the consensus affinity matrix is exactly equal to the number of classes. This also means that the clustering and classification results can be directly obtained without any post-processing procedure. Furthermore, for the clustering and classification tasks, we respectively derive the efficient optimization methods to solve the proposed model. Experimental results on real benchmark datasets and real world uncertain datasets show that the proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art uncertain data clustering and classification algorithms in effectiveness and performs competitively in efficiency. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Adaptive observer based synchronization of a class of uncertain chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowong, S.; Yamapi, R.

    2005-05-01

    This study addresses the adaptive synchronization of a class of uncertain chaotic systems in the drive-response framework. For a class of uncertain chaotic systems with unknown parameters and external disturbances, a robust adaptive observer based response system is constructed to synchronize the uncertain chaotic system. Lyapunov stability theory and Barbalat lemma ensure the global synchronization between the drive and response systems even if Lipschitz constants on function matrices and bounds on uncertainties are unknown. Numerical simulation of the Genesio-Tesi system verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. (author)

  17. CMAC-based adaptive backstepping synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.-M.; Peng, Y.-F.; Lin, M.-H.

    2009-01-01

    This study proposes an adaptive backstepping control system for synchronizing uncertain chaotic system by using cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC). CMAC is a nonlinear network with simple computation, good generalization capability and fast learning property. The proposed CMAC-based adaptive backstepping control (CABC) system uses backstepping method and adaptive cerebellar model articulation controller (ACMAC) for synchronizing uncertain chaotic system. Finally, simulation results for the Genesio system are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control system.

  18. H2 Control for the Continuous-Time Markovian Jump Linear Uncertain Systems with Partly Known Transition Rates and Input Quantization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin-Gang Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available For a class of continuous-time Markovian jump linear uncertain systems with partly known transition rates and input quantization, the H2 state-feedback control design is considered. The elements in the transition rates matrix include completely known, boundary known, and completely unknown ones. First, an H2 cost index for Markovian jump linear uncertain systems is introduced; then by introducing a new matrix inequality condition, sufficient conditions are formulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs for the H2 control of the Markovian jump linear uncertain systems. Less conservativeness is achieved than the result obtained with the existing technique. Finally, a numerical example is given to verify the validity of the theoretical results.

  19. An artificial bee colony algorithm for uncertain portfolio selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts' evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is used to measure investment return, the uncertain variance of the return is used to measure investment risk, and the entropy is used to measure diversification degree of portfolio. In order to solve the proposed model, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is designed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  20. Synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain switched network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lü, Ling; Li, Chengren; Li, Gang; Sun, Ao; Yan, Zhe; Rong, Tingting; Gao, Yan

    2017-06-01

    We propose a new technology for synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology. In synchronization process, the connection of dynamic network can vary at all time according to different demands. Especially, we construct the Lyapunov function of network through designing a special semi-positive definite function, and the synchronization transmission of laser pattern signal within uncertain network with controllable topology can be realized perfectly, which effectively avoids the complicated calculation for solving the second largest eignvalue of the coupling matrix of the dynamic network in order to obtain the network synchronization condition. At the same time, the uncertain parameters in dynamic equations belonging to network nodes can also be identified accurately via designing the identification laws of uncertain parameters. In addition, there are not any limitations for the synchronization target of network in the new technology, in other words, the target can either be a state variable signal of an arbitrary node within the network or an exterior signal.

  1. Uncertain data envelopment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Wen, Meilin

    2014-01-01

    This book is intended to present the milestones in the progression of uncertain Data envelopment analysis (DEA). Chapter 1 gives some basic introduction to uncertain theories, including probability theory, credibility theory, uncertainty theory and chance theory. Chapter 2 presents a comprehensive review and discussion of basic DEA models. The stochastic DEA is introduced in Chapter 3, in which the inputs and outputs are assumed to be random variables. To obtain the probability distribution of a random variable, a lot of samples are needed to apply the statistics inference approach. Chapter 4

  2. Project Delivery System Mode Decision Based on Uncertain AHP and Fuzzy Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaishan, Liu; Huimin, Li

    2017-12-01

    The project delivery system mode determines the contract pricing type, project management mode and the risk allocation among all participants. Different project delivery system modes have different characteristics and applicable scope. For the owners, the selection of the delivery mode is the key point to decide whether the project can achieve the expected benefits, it relates to the success or failure of project construction. Under the precondition of comprehensively considering the influence factors of the delivery mode, the model of project delivery system mode decision was set up on the basis of uncertain AHP and fuzzy sets, which can well consider the uncertainty and fuzziness when conducting the index evaluation and weight confirmation, so as to rapidly and effectively identify the most suitable delivery mode according to project characteristics. The effectiveness of the model has been verified via the actual case analysis in order to provide reference for the construction project delivery system mode.

  3. Visualization of Uncertain Contour Trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraus, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Contour trees can represent the topology of large volume data sets in a relatively compact, discrete data structure. However, the resulting trees often contain many thousands of nodes; thus, many graph drawing techniques fail to produce satisfactory results. Therefore, several visualization methods...... were proposed recently for the visualization of contour trees. Unfortunately, none of these techniques is able to handle uncertain contour trees although any uncertainty of the volume data inevitably results in partially uncertain contour trees. In this work, we visualize uncertain contour trees...... by combining the contour trees of two morphologically filtered versions of a volume data set, which represent the range of uncertainty. These two contour trees are combined and visualized within a single image such that a range of potential contour trees is represented by the resulting visualization. Thus...

  4. Analysis of semantic search within the domains of uncertainty: using Keyword Effectiveness Indexing as an evaluation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorence, Daniel; Abraham, Joanna

    2006-01-01

    Medical and health-related searches pose a special case of risk when using the web as an information resource. Uninsured consumers, lacking access to a trained provider, will often rely on information from the internet for self-diagnosis and treatment. In areas where treatments are uncertain or controversial, most consumers lack the knowledge to make an informed decision. This exploratory technology assessment examines the use of Keyword Effectiveness Indexing (KEI) analysis as a potential tool for profiling information search and keyword retrieval patterns. Results demonstrate that the KEI methodology can be useful in identifying e-health search patterns, but is limited by semantic or text-based web environments.

  5. Non probabilistic solution of uncertain neutron diffusion equation for imprecisely defined homogeneous bare reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraverty, S.; Nayak, S.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Uncertain neutron diffusion equation of bare square homogeneous reactor is studied. • Proposed interval arithmetic is extended for fuzzy numbers. • The developed fuzzy arithmetic is used to handle uncertain parameters. • Governing differential equation is modelled by modified fuzzy finite element method. • Fuzzy critical eigenvalues and effective multiplication factors are investigated. - Abstract: The scattering of neutron collision inside a reactor depends upon geometry of the reactor, diffusion coefficient and absorption coefficient etc. In general these parameters are not crisp and hence we get uncertain neutron diffusion equation. In this paper we have investigated the above equation for a bare square homogeneous reactor. Here the uncertain governing differential equation is modelled by a modified fuzzy finite element method. Using modified fuzzy finite element method, obtained eigenvalues and effective multiplication factors are studied. Corresponding results are compared with the classical finite element method in special cases and various uncertain results have been discussed

  6. A Risk-Free Protection Index Model for Portfolio Selection with Entropy Constraint under an Uncertainty Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwei Gao

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a risk-free protection index model for portfolio selection based on the uncertain theory. First, the returns of risk assets are assumed as uncertain variables and subject to reputable experts’ evaluations. Second, under this assumption, combining with the risk-free interest rate we define a risk-free protection index (RFPI, which can measure the protection degree when the loss of risk assets happens. Third, note that the proportion entropy serves as a complementary means to reduce the risk by the preset diversification requirement. We put forward a risk-free protection index model with an entropy constraint under an uncertainty framework by applying the RFPI, Huang’s risk index model (RIM, and mean-variance-entropy model (MVEM. Furthermore, to solve our portfolio model, an algorithm is given to estimate the uncertain expected return and standard deviation of different risk assets by applying the Delphi method. Finally, an example is provided to show that the risk-free protection index model performs better than the traditional MVEM and RIM.

  7. A methodology for the synthesis of heat exchanger networks having large numbers of uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak Pintarič, Zorka; Kravanja, Zdravko

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a robust computational methodology for the synthesis and design of flexible HEN (Heat Exchanger Networks) having large numbers of uncertain parameters. This methodology combines several heuristic methods which progressively lead to a flexible HEN design at a specific level of confidence. During the first step, a HEN topology is generated under nominal conditions followed by determining those points critical for flexibility. A significantly reduced multi-scenario model for flexible HEN design is formulated at the nominal point with the flexibility constraints at the critical points. The optimal design obtained is tested by stochastic Monte Carlo optimization and the flexibility index through solving one-scenario problems within a loop. This presented methodology is novel regarding the enormous reduction of scenarios in HEN design problems, and computational effort. Despite several simplifications, the capability of designing flexible HENs with large numbers of uncertain parameters, which are typical throughout industry, is not compromised. An illustrative case study is presented for flexible HEN synthesis comprising 42 uncertain parameters. - Highlights: • Methodology for HEN (Heat Exchanger Network) design under uncertainty is presented. • The main benefit is solving HENs having large numbers of uncertain parameters. • Drastically reduced multi-scenario HEN design problem is formulated through several steps. • Flexibility of HEN is guaranteed at a specific level of confidence.

  8. Structure identification and adaptive synchronization of uncertain general complex dynamical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Yuhua; Zhou Wuneng; Fang Jian'an; Lu Hongqian

    2009-01-01

    This Letter proposes an approach to identify the topological structure and unknown parameters for uncertain general complex networks simultaneously. By designing effective adaptive controllers, we achieve synchronization between two complex networks. The unknown network topological structure and system parameters of uncertain general complex dynamical networks are identified simultaneously in the process of synchronization. Several useful criteria for synchronization are given. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the application of the theoretical results.

  9. Structure identification and adaptive synchronization of uncertain general complex dynamical networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Yuhua, E-mail: yuhuaxu2004@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China) and Department of Maths, Yunyang Teacher' s College, Hubei 442000 (China); Zhou Wuneng, E-mail: wnzhou@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Fang Jian' an [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Lu Hongqian [Shandong Institute of Light Industry, Shandong Jinan 250353 (China)

    2009-12-28

    This Letter proposes an approach to identify the topological structure and unknown parameters for uncertain general complex networks simultaneously. By designing effective adaptive controllers, we achieve synchronization between two complex networks. The unknown network topological structure and system parameters of uncertain general complex dynamical networks are identified simultaneously in the process of synchronization. Several useful criteria for synchronization are given. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the application of the theoretical results.

  10. Uncertain R and D, backstop technology and GHGs stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Tavoni, Massimo

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyses optimal investments in innovation when dealing with a stringent climate target and with the uncertain effectiveness of R and D. The innovation needed to achieve the deep cut in emissions is modeled by a backstop carbon-free technology whose cost depends on R and D investments. To better represent the process of technological progress, we assume that R and D effectiveness is uncertain. By means of a simple analytical model, we show how accounting for the uncertainty that characterizes technological advancement yields higher investments in innovation and lower policy costs. We then confirm the results via a numerical analysis performed with a stochastic version of WITCH, an energy-economy-climate model. The results stress the importance of a correct specification of the technological change process in economy-climate models. (author)

  11. Uncertain Dynamics, Correlation Effects, and Robust Investment Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flor, Christian Riis; Hesel, Søren

    2015-01-01

    We analyze a firm's investment problem when the dynamics of project value and investment cost are uncertain. We provide an explicit solution using a robust method for an ambiguity averse firm taking this into account. Ambiguity aversion regarding a common risk factor impacts differently than...... ambiguity aversion regarding investment cost residual risk. Correlation between project value and investment cost matters; ambiguity aversion regarding common risk can decrease the investment probability only if correlation is positive. Ambiguity aversion regarding residual risk always increases...... the investment probability. When only project value is risky, volatility can monotonically decrease the investment threshold; this does not hold with the multiple prior method....

  12. Nonfragile Robust Model Predictive Control for Uncertain Constrained Systems with Time-Delay Compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Jiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the problem of asymptotic stabilization for a class of discrete-time linear uncertain time-delayed systems with input constraints. Parametric uncertainty is assumed to be structured, and delay is assumed to be known. In Lyapunov stability theory framework, two synthesis schemes of designing nonfragile robust model predictive control (RMPC with time-delay compensation are put forward, where the additive and the multiplicative gain perturbations are, respectively, considered. First, by designing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii (L-K functions, the robust performance index is defined as optimization problems that minimize upper bounds of infinite horizon cost function. Then, to guarantee closed-loop stability, the sufficient conditions for the existence of desired nonfragile RMPC are obtained in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.

  13. Chaos synchronization of uncertain Genesio-Tesi chaotic systems with deadzone nonlinearity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Y.-J.

    2009-01-01

    In this Letter, the concept of practical synchronization is introduced and the chaos synchronization of uncertain Genesio-Tesi chaotic systems with deadzone nonlinearity is investigated. Based on the time-domain approach, a tracking control is proposed to realize chaos synchronization for the uncertain Genesio-Tesi chaotic systems with deadzone nonlinearity. Moreover, the guaranteed exponential convergence rate and convergence radius can be pre-specified. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the obtained result.

  14. Function Projective Synchronization in Discrete-Time Chaotic System with Uncertain Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yong; Li Xin

    2009-01-01

    The function projective synchronization of discrete-time chaotic systems is presented. Based on backstepping design with three controllers, a systematic, concrete and automatic scheme is developed to investigate function projective synchronization (FPS) of discrete-time chaotic systems with uncertain parameters. With the aid of symbolic-numeric computation, we use the proposed scheme to illustrate FPS between two identical 3D Henon-like maps with uncertain parameters. Numeric simulations are used to verify the effectiveness of our scheme. (general)

  15. An Uncertain Programming Model for Land Use Structure Optimization to Promote Effectiveness of Land Use Planning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin; MA Xiaodong

    2017-01-01

    Land use structure optimization (LUSO) is an important issue for land use planning.In order for land use planning to have reasonable flexibility,uncertain optimization should be applied for LUSO.In this paper,the researcher first expounded the uncertainties of LUSO.Based on this,an interval programming model was developed,of which interval variables were to hold land use uncertainties.To solve the model,a heuristics based on Genetic Algorithm was designed according to Pareto Optimum principle with a confidence interval under given significance level to represent LUSO result.Proposed method was applied to a real case of Yangzhou,an eastern city in China.The following conclusions were reached.1) Different forms of uncertainties ranged from certainty to indeterminacy lay in the five steps of LUSO,indicating necessary need of comprehensive approach to quantify them.2) With regards to trade-offs of conflicted objectives and preferences to uncertainties,our proposed model displayed good ability of making planning decision process transparent,therefore providing an effective tool for flexible land use planning compiling.3) Under uncertain conditions,land use planning effectiveness can be primarily enhanced by flexible management with reserved space to percept and hold uncertainties in advance.

  16. Effective production planning for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand: MRP Vs demand-driven MRP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shofa, M. J.; Moeis, A. O.; Restiana, N.

    2018-04-01

    MRP as a production planning system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic, so that MRP is inappropriate at the time. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is new approach for production planning system dealing with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of average inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation with the long lead time and uncertain demand scenarios. The next step is evaluating the performance of DDMRP by comparing the inventory level of DDMRP with MRP. As result, DDMRP is more effective production planning than MRP in terms of average inventory levels.

  17. Photonic crystal fibres and effective index approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riishede, Jesper; Libori, Stig E. Barkou; Bjarklev, Anders Overgaard

    2001-01-01

    Photonic crystal fibres are investigated with an effective index approach. The effective index of both core and cladding is found to be wavelength dependent. Accurate modelling must respect the rich topology of these fibres.......Photonic crystal fibres are investigated with an effective index approach. The effective index of both core and cladding is found to be wavelength dependent. Accurate modelling must respect the rich topology of these fibres....

  18. (Approximate) Uncertain Skylines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Afshani, Peyman; Agarwal, Pankaj K.; Arge, Lars Allan

    2011-01-01

    Given a set of points with uncertain locations, we consider the problem of computing the probability of each point lying on the skyline, that is, the probability that it is not dominated by any other input point. If each point’s uncertainty is described as a probability distribution over a discre...

  19. (Approximate) Uncertain Skylines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Afshani, Peyman; Agarwal, Pankaj K.; Arge, Lars

    2013-01-01

    Given a set of points with uncertain locations, we consider the problem of computing the probability of each point lying on the skyline, that is, the probability that it is not dominated by any other input point. If each point’s uncertainty is described as a probability distribution over a discre...

  20. Numerical solution of uncertain neutron diffusion equation for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The concept of fuzziness is hybridised with ... impreciseness, vagueness, experimental error and different operating conditions affected by the system. ... But the presence of uncertain parameters makes the system uncertain and we get uncer-.

  1. Adaptive synchronization of Rossler system with uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ju H.

    2005-01-01

    This article addresses control for the chaos synchronization of Rossler systems with three uncertain parameters. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive control law is derived to make the states of two identical Rossler systems asymptotically synchronized. A numerical simulations is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos synchronization scheme

  2. Adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization of different chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Xiangjun; Lu Hongtao

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization (AGFPLS) is proposed. → Two uncertain chaos systems are lag synchronized up to a scaling function matrix. → The synchronization speed is sensitively influenced by the control gains. → The AGFPLS scheme is robust against noise perturbation. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel projective synchronization scheme called adaptive generalized function projective lag synchronization (AGFPLS) is proposed. In the AGFPLS method, the states of two different chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters are asymptotically lag synchronized up to a desired scaling function matrix. By means of the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller with corresponding parameter update rule is designed for achieving AGFPLS between two diverse chaotic systems and estimating the unknown parameters. This technique is employed to realize AGFPLS between uncertain Lue chaotic system and uncertain Liu chaotic system, and between Chen hyperchaotic system and Lorenz hyperchaotic system with fully uncertain parameters, respectively. Furthermore, AGFPLS between two different uncertain chaotic systems can still be achieved effectively with the existence of noise perturbation. The corresponding numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate the validity and robustness of the presented synchronization method.

  3. Negative index effects from a homogeneous positive index prism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus, Sherman W.; Epstein, Ariel

    2017-12-01

    Cellular structured negative index metamaterials in the form of a right triangular prism have often been tested by observing the refraction of a beam across the prism hypotenuse which is serrated in order to conform to the cell walls. We show that not only can this negative index effect be obtained from a homogeneous dielectric prism having a positive index of refraction, but in addition, for sampling at the walls of the cellular structure, the phase in the material has the illusory appearance of moving in a negative direction. Although many previous reports relied on refraction direction and phase velocity of prism structures to verify negative index design, our investigation indicates that to unambiguously demonstrate material negativity additional empirical evidence is required.

  4. Neural basis of uncertain cue processing in trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Meng; Ma, Chao; Luo, Yanyan; Li, Ji; Li, Qingwei; Liu, Yijun; Ding, Cody; Qiu, Jiang

    2016-02-19

    Individuals with high trait anxiety form a non-clinical group with a predisposition for an anxiety-related bias in emotional and cognitive processing that is considered by some to be a prerequisite for psychiatric disorders. Anxious individuals tend to experience more worry under uncertainty, and processing uncertain information is an important, but often overlooked factor in anxiety. So, we decided to explore the brain correlates of processing uncertain information in individuals with high trait anxiety using the learn-test paradigm. Behaviorally, the percentages on memory test and the likelihood ratios of identifying novel stimuli under uncertainty were similar to the certain fear condition, but different from the certain neutral condition. The brain results showed that the visual cortex, bilateral fusiform gyrus, and right parahippocampal gyrus were active during the processing of uncertain cues. Moreover, we found that trait anxiety was positively correlated with the BOLD signal of the right parahippocampal gyrus during the processing of uncertain cues. No significant results were found in the amygdala during uncertain cue processing. These results suggest that memory retrieval is associated with uncertain cue processing, which is underpinned by over-activation of the right parahippocampal gyrus, in individuals with high trait anxiety.

  5. Learning from uncertain curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mallasto, Anton; Feragen, Aasa

    2017-01-01

    We introduce a novel framework for statistical analysis of populations of nondegenerate Gaussian processes (GPs), which are natural representations of uncertain curves. This allows inherent variation or uncertainty in function-valued data to be properly incorporated in the population analysis. Us...

  6. Robust Control with Enlaeged Interval of Uncertain Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Keresturi

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Robust control is advantageous for systems with defined interval of uncertain parameters. This can be substantially enlarged dividing it into a few sub-intervals. Corresponding controllers for each of them may be set after approximate identification of some uncertain plant parameters. The paper deals with application of the pole region assignment method for position control of the crane crab. The same track form is required for uncertain burden mass and approximate value of rope length. Measurement of crab position and speed is supposed, burden deviation angle is observed. Simulation results have verified feasibility of this design procedure.

  7. Wind farm investment risks under uncertain CDM benefit in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Ming; Nguyen, Francois; T'Serclaes, Philippine de; Buchner, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    China has set an ambitious target to increase its wind power capacity by 35 GW from 2007 to 2020. The country's hunger for clean power provides great opportunities for wind energy investors. However, risks from China's uncertain electricity market regulation and an uncertain energy policy framework, mainly due to uncertain Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) benefits, prevent foreign investors from investing in China's wind energy. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) quantify wind energy investment risk premiums in an uncertain international energy policy context and (2) evaluate the impact of uncertain CDM benefits on the net present values of wind power projects. With four scenarios, this study simulates possible prices of certified emissions reductions (CERs) from wind power projects. Project net present values (NPVs) have been calculated. The project risk premiums are drawn from different and uncertain CER prices. Our key findings show that uncertain CDM benefits will significantly affect the project NPVs. This paper concludes that the Chinese government needs revising its tariff incentives, most likely by introducing fixed feed-in tariffs (FITs), and re-examining its CDM-granting policy and its wind project tax rates, to facilitate wind power development and enable China to achieve its wind energy target. (author)

  8. When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

    2015-11-28

    Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

  9. An Extended TOPSIS Method for Multiple Attribute Decision Making based on Interval Neutrosophic Uncertain Linguistic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Broumi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic variables can easily express the indeterminate and inconsistent information in real world, and TOPSIS is a very effective decision making method more and more extensive applications. In this paper, we will extend the TOPSIS method to deal with the interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic information, and propose an extended TOPSIS method to solve the multiple attribute decision making problems in which the attribute value takes the form of the interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic variables and attribute weight is unknown. Firstly, the operational rules and properties for the interval neutrosophic variables are introduced. Then the distance between two interval neutrosophic uncertain linguistic variables is proposed and the attribute weight is calculated by the maximizing deviation method, and the closeness coefficients to the ideal solution for each alternatives. Finally, an illustrative example is given to illustrate the decision making steps and the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  10. WebScore: An Effective Page Scoring Approach for Uncertain Web Social Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaojie Qiao

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available To effectively score pages with uncertainty in web social networks, we first proposed a new concept called transition probability matrix and formally defined the uncertainty in web social networks. Second, we proposed a hybrid page scoring algorithm, called WebScore, based on the PageRank algorithm and three centrality measures including degree, betweenness, and closeness. Particularly,WebScore takes into a full consideration of the uncertainty of web social networks by computing the transition probability from one page to another. The basic idea ofWebScore is to: (1 integrate uncertainty into PageRank in order to accurately rank pages, and (2 apply the centrality measures to calculate the importance of pages in web social networks. In order to verify the performance of WebScore, we developed a web social network analysis system which can partition web pages into distinct groups and score them in an effective fashion. Finally, we conducted extensive experiments on real data and the results show that WebScore is effective at scoring uncertain pages with less time deficiency than PageRank and centrality measures based page scoring algorithms.

  11. Compete, coordinate, and cooperate: How to exploit uncertain environments with social interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulze, Christin; Newell, Ben R

    2015-10-01

    Countless decisions, from the trivial to the crucial, are made in complex social contexts while facing uncertain consequences. Yet a large portion of decision making research focuses on either the effects of social interaction or the effects of environmental uncertainty by examining strategic games against others or individual games against nature. Drawing a connection between these approaches, the authors extend a standard individual choice paradigm to include social interaction with 1 other person. In this paradigm, 2 competing decision makers repeatedly select among 2 options, each offering a particular probability of a fixed payoff. When both players choose the same, correct option, the payoff is evenly split; when they choose different options, the player choosing the correct option receives the full payoff. The addition of this social dimension gives players an opportunity to fully exploit an uncertain environment via cooperation: By consistently choosing opposite options, two players can exploit the uncertain environment more effectively than a single player could. We present 2 experiments that manipulate environmental (Experiment 1) and social (Experiment 2) aspects of the paradigm. In Experiment 1, the outcome probabilities were either known or unknown to participants; in Experiment 2, participants' attention was drawn to individual or group gains by introducing either within- or between-group competition. Efficient cooperation did not emerge spontaneously in Experiment 1. Instead, most people probability maximized, mirroring the behavior observed in individual choice. By contrast, between--group competition in Experiment 2 facilitated efficient-but not always equitable--exploitation of uncertain environments. This work links the concepts of individual risky choice and strategic decision making under both environmental and social uncertainty. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Synchronizing a class of uncertain chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Maoyin; Zhou Donghua; Shang Yun

    2005-01-01

    This Letter deals with the synchronization of a class of uncertain chaotic systems in the drive-response framework. A robust adaptive observer based response system is designed to synchronize a given chaotic system with unknown parameters and external disturbances. Lyapunov stability ensures the global synchronization between the drive and response systems even if Lipschitz constants on function matrices and bounds on uncertainties are unknown. Numerical simulation of Genesio-Tesi system verifies the effectiveness of this scheme

  13. Non-specific effects of vaccines: plausible and potentially important, but implications uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, Andrew J; Finn, Adam; Curtis, Nigel

    2017-11-01

    Non-specific effects (NSE) or heterologous effects of vaccines are proposed to explain observations in some studies that certain vaccines have an impact beyond the direct protection against infection with the specific pathogen for which the vaccines were designed. The importance and implications of such effects remain controversial. There are several known immunological mechanisms which could lead to NSE, since it is widely recognised that the generation of specific immunity is initiated by non-specific innate immune mechanisms that may also have wider effects on adaptive immune function. However, there are no published studies that demonstrate a mechanistic link between such immunological phenomena and clinically relevant NSE in humans. While it is highly plausible that some vaccines do have NSE, their magnitude and duration, and thus importance, remain uncertain. Although the WHO recently concluded that current evidence does not justify changes to immunisation policy, further studies of sufficient size and quality are needed to assess the importance of NSE for all-cause mortality. This could provide insights into vaccine immunobiology with important implications for infant health and survival. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Rigid multibody system dynamics with uncertain rigid bodies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batou, A., E-mail: anas.batou@univ-paris-est.fr; Soize, C., E-mail: christian.soize@univ-paris-est.fr [Universite Paris-Est, Laboratoire Modelisation et Simulation Multi Echelle, MSME UMR 8208 CNRS (France)

    2012-03-15

    This paper is devoted to the construction of a probabilistic model of uncertain rigid bodies for multibody system dynamics. We first construct a stochastic model of an uncertain rigid body by replacing the mass, the center of mass, and the tensor of inertia by random variables. The prior probability distributions of the stochastic model are constructed using the maximum entropy principle under the constraints defined by the available information. The generators of independent realizations corresponding to the prior probability distribution of these random quantities are further developed. Then several uncertain rigid bodies can be linked to each other in order to calculate the random response of a multibody dynamical system. An application is proposed to illustrate the theoretical development.

  15. An Uncertain Wage Contract Model with Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiulan Wang

    2014-01-01

    it can be characterized as an uncertain variable. Moreover, the employee's effort is unobservable to the employer, and the employee can select her effort level to maximize her utility. Thus, an uncertain wage contract model with adverse selection and moral hazard is established to maximize the employer's expected profit. And the model analysis mainly focuses on the equivalent form of the proposed wage contract model and the optimal solution to this form. The optimal solution indicates that both the employee's effort level and the wage increase with the employee's ability. Lastly, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

  16. Restructuring Electricity Markets when Demand is Uncertain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boom, Anette; Buehler, Stefan

    2006-01-01

    We examine the effects of reorganizing electricity markets on capacity investments, retail prices and welfare when demand is uncertain. We study the following market configurations: (i) integrated monopoly, (ii) integrated duopoly with wholesale trade, and (iii) separated duopoly with wholesale...... trade. Assuming that wholesale prices can react to changes in retail prices (but not vice versa), we find that generators install sufficient capacity to serve retail demand in each market configuration, thus avoiding blackouts. Furthermore, aggregate capacity levels and retail prices...

  17. Adaptive synchronization of hyperchaotic Chen system with uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ju H.

    2005-01-01

    This article addresses control for the chaos synchronization of hyperchaotic Chen system with five uncertain parameters. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive control law is derived to make the states of two identical hyperchaotic Chen systems asymptotically synchronized. Finally, a numerical simulations is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos synchronization scheme

  18. Robust digital controllers for uncertain chaotic systems: A digital redesign approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ababneh, Mohammad [Department of Controls, FMC Kongsberg Subsea, FMC Energy Systems, Houston, TX 77067 (United States); Barajas-Ramirez, Juan-Gonzalo [CICESE, Depto. De Electronica y Telecomunicaciones, Ensenada, BC, 22860 (Mexico); Chen Guanrong [Centre for Chaos Control and Synchronization, Department of Electronic Engineering, City University of Hong Kong (China); Shieh, Leang S. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77204-4005 (United States)

    2007-03-15

    In this paper, a new and systematic method for designing robust digital controllers for uncertain nonlinear systems with structured uncertainties is presented. In the proposed method, a controller is designed in terms of the optimal linear model representation of the nominal system around each operating point of the trajectory, while the uncertainties are decomposed such that the uncertain nonlinear system can be rewritten as a set of local linear models with disturbed inputs. Applying conventional robust control techniques, continuous-time robust controllers are first designed to eliminate the effects of the uncertainties on the underlying system. Then, a robust digital controller is obtained as the result of a digital redesign of the designed continuous-time robust controller using the state-matching technique. The effectiveness of the proposed controller design method is illustrated through some numerical examples on complex nonlinear systems--chaotic systems.

  19. A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huidong Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is conducted to show the superiority of bi-directional projection method. Finally, an example of graduate’s job option is given to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

  20. Overcoming Learning Aversion in Evaluating and Managing Uncertain Risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Louis Anthony Tony

    2015-10-01

    Decision biases can distort cost-benefit evaluations of uncertain risks, leading to risk management policy decisions with predictably high retrospective regret. We argue that well-documented decision biases encourage learning aversion, or predictably suboptimal learning and premature decision making in the face of high uncertainty about the costs, risks, and benefits of proposed changes. Biases such as narrow framing, overconfidence, confirmation bias, optimism bias, ambiguity aversion, and hyperbolic discounting of the immediate costs and delayed benefits of learning, contribute to deficient individual and group learning, avoidance of information seeking, underestimation of the value of further information, and hence needlessly inaccurate risk-cost-benefit estimates and suboptimal risk management decisions. In practice, such biases can create predictable regret in selection of potential risk-reducing regulations. Low-regret learning strategies based on computational reinforcement learning models can potentially overcome some of these suboptimal decision processes by replacing aversion to uncertain probabilities with actions calculated to balance exploration (deliberate experimentation and uncertainty reduction) and exploitation (taking actions to maximize the sum of expected immediate reward, expected discounted future reward, and value of information). We discuss the proposed framework for understanding and overcoming learning aversion and for implementing low-regret learning strategies using regulation of air pollutants with uncertain health effects as an example. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Multiobjective Location Routing Problem considering Uncertain Data after Disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keliang Chang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The relief distributions after large disasters play an important role for rescue works. After disasters there is a high degree of uncertainty, such as the demands of disaster points and the damage of paths. The demands of affected points and the velocities between two points on the paths are uncertain in this article, and the robust optimization method is applied to deal with the uncertain parameters. This paper proposes a nonlinear location routing problem with half-time windows and with three objectives. The affected points can be visited more than one time. The goals are the total costs of the transportation, the satisfaction rates of disaster nodes, and the path transport capacities which are denoted by vehicle velocities. Finally, the genetic algorithm is applied to solve a number of numerical examples, and the results show that the genetic algorithm is very stable and effective for this problem.

  2. Active fault diagnosis in closed-loop uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2006-01-01

    Fault diagnosis of parametric faults in closed-loop uncertain systems by using an auxiliary input vector is considered in this paper, i.e. active fault diagnosis (AFD). The active fault diagnosis is based directly on the socalled fault signature matrix, related to the YJBK (Youla, Jabr, Bongiorno...... and Kucera) parameterization. Conditions are given for exact detection and isolation of parametric faults in closed-loop uncertain systems....

  3. Cluster synchronization transmission of different external signals in discrete uncertain network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chengren; Lü, Ling; Chen, Liansong; Hong, Yixuan; Zhou, Shuang; Yang, Yiming

    2018-07-01

    We research cluster synchronization transmissions of different external signals in discrete uncertain network. Based on the Lyapunov theorem, the network controller and the identification law of uncertain adjustment parameter are designed, and they are efficiently used to achieve the cluster synchronization and the identification of uncertain adjustment parameter. In our technical scheme, the network nodes in each cluster and the transmitted external signal can be different, and they allow the presence of uncertain parameters in the network. Especially, we are free to choose the clustering topologies, the cluster number and the node number in each cluster.

  4. MAGDM linear-programming models with distinct uncertain preference structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zeshui S; Chen, Jian

    2008-10-01

    Group decision making with preference information on alternatives is an interesting and important research topic which has been receiving more and more attention in recent years. The purpose of this paper is to investigate multiple-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems with distinct uncertain preference structures. We develop some linear-programming models for dealing with the MAGDM problems, where the information about attribute weights is incomplete, and the decision makers have their preferences on alternatives. The provided preference information can be represented in the following three distinct uncertain preference structures: 1) interval utility values; 2) interval fuzzy preference relations; and 3) interval multiplicative preference relations. We first establish some linear-programming models based on decision matrix and each of the distinct uncertain preference structures and, then, develop some linear-programming models to integrate all three structures of subjective uncertain preference information provided by the decision makers and the objective information depicted in the decision matrix. Furthermore, we propose a simple and straightforward approach in ranking and selecting the given alternatives. It is worth pointing out that the developed models can also be used to deal with the situations where the three distinct uncertain preference structures are reduced to the traditional ones, i.e., utility values, fuzzy preference relations, and multiplicative preference relations. Finally, we use a practical example to illustrate in detail the calculation process of the developed approach.

  5. Uncertain relational reasoning in the parietal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragni, Marco; Franzmeier, Imke; Maier, Simon; Knauff, Markus

    2016-04-01

    The psychology of reasoning is currently transitioning from the study of deductive inferences under certainty to inferences that have degrees of uncertainty in both their premises and conclusions; however, only a few studies have explored the cortical basis of uncertain reasoning. Using transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), we show that areas in the right superior parietal lobe (rSPL) are necessary for solving spatial relational reasoning problems under conditions of uncertainty. Twenty-four participants had to decide whether a single presented order of objects agreed with a given set of indeterminate premises that could be interpreted in more than one way. During the presentation of the order, 10-Hz TMS was applied over the rSPL or a sham control site. Right SPL TMS during the inference phase disrupted performance in uncertain relational reasoning. Moreover, we found differences in the error rates between preferred mental models, alternative models, and inconsistent models. Our results suggest that different mechanisms are involved when people reason spatially and evaluate different kinds of uncertain conclusions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Uncertain multi-attribute decision making methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Zeshui

    2015-01-01

    This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...

  7. Nonlinear robust hierarchical control for nonlinear uncertain systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonessa Alexander

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear robust control-system design framework predicated on a hierarchical switching controller architecture parameterized over a set of moving nominal system equilibria is developed. Specifically, using equilibria-dependent Lyapunov functions, a hierarchical nonlinear robust control strategy is developed that robustly stabilizes a given nonlinear system over a prescribed range of system uncertainty by robustly stabilizing a collection of nonlinear controlled uncertain subsystems. The robust switching nonlinear controller architecture is designed based on a generalized (lower semicontinuous Lyapunov function obtained by minimizing a potential function over a given switching set induced by the parameterized nominal system equilibria. The proposed framework robustly stabilizes a compact positively invariant set of a given nonlinear uncertain dynamical system with structured parametric uncertainty. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated on a jet engine propulsion control problem with uncertain pressure-flow map data.

  8. The property investigation of the numerical code TIGER for the uncertain analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebina, Takanori; Ohi, Takao

    2008-03-01

    In order to obtain the information concerning the safety of the geological disposal under various geological environments, the sensitivity analysis that considers the uncertainty of parameters resulting from the insufficiency of knowledge and information plays an important role. The numerical code TIGER allows the physical and chemical properties within the system to vary with time in the radionuclide migration analysis from vitrified glass to rock and these function is useful for understanding the effect of the property change of each barrier in such sensitivity analysis. Therefore, at this study, some typical processing methods with the engineered barrier system and the host rock were developed at fast, and through the comparison with the calculation time, the step of preprocessing and postprocessing, the most suitable method was considered. After this consideration, the interrelation between the calculation accuracy and the calculation time at the most suitable method was examined for the purpose of using this method to the uncertain analysis. In addition, the STRIDER that was the program to make the input file for the uncertain analysis with setting random parameter and do the preprocessing and the postprocessing, was improved for the uncertain analysis. Through this consideration, the information of the best processing method, the calculation accuracy, and the analysis tool was arranged for an uncertain analysis using TIGER. (author)

  9. Adaptive synchronization of a new hyperchaotic system with uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Tiegang; Chen Zengqiang; Yuan Zhuzhi; Yu Dongchuan

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses control for the master-slave synchronization of a new hyperchaos with five uncertain parameters. An adaptive control law is derived to make the states of two identical hyperchaotic systems asymptotically synchronized based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, a numerical simulation is presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed synchronization scheme

  10. Robust Optimization-Based Generation Self-Scheduling under Uncertain Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Luo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers generation self-scheduling in electricity markets under uncertain price. Based on the robust optimization (denoted as RO methodology, a new self-scheduling model, which has a complicated max-min optimization structure, is set up. By using optimal dual theory, the proposed model is reformulated to an ordinary quadratic and quadratic cone programming problems in the cases of box and ellipsoidal uncertainty, respectively. IEEE 30-bus system is used to test the new model. Some comparisons with other methods are done, and the sensitivity with respect to the uncertain set is analyzed. Comparing with the existed uncertain self-scheduling approaches, the new method has twofold characteristics. First, it does not need a prediction of distribution of random variables and just requires an estimated value and the uncertain set of power price. Second, the counterpart of RO corresponding to the self-scheduling is a simple quadratic or quadratic cone programming. This indicates that the reformulated problem can be solved by many ordinary optimization algorithms.

  11. Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solow, Andrew; Smith, Woollcott; Burgman, Mark; Rout, Tracy; Wintle, Brendan; Roberts, David

    2012-02-01

    The extinction of a species can be inferred from a record of its sightings. Existing methods for doing so assume that all sightings in the record are valid. Often, however, there are sightings of uncertain validity. To date, uncertain sightings have been treated in an ad hoc way, either excluding them from the record or including them as if they were certain. We developed a Bayesian method that formally accounts for such uncertain sightings. The method assumes that valid and invalid sightings follow independent Poisson processes and use noninformative prior distributions for the rate of valid sightings and for a measure of the quality of uncertain sightings. We applied the method to a recently published record of sightings of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). This record covers the period 1897-2010 and contains 39 sightings classified as certain and 29 classified as uncertain. The Bayes factor in favor of extinction was 4.03, which constitutes substantial support for extinction. The posterior distribution of the time of extinction has 3 main modes in 1944, 1952, and 1988. The method can be applied to sighting records of other purportedly extinct species. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. A Robust Service Selection Method Based on Uncertain QoS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanping Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the number of Web services on the Internet is quickly increasing. Meanwhile, different service providers offer numerous services with the similar functions. Quality of Service (QoS has become an important factor used to select the most appropriate service for users. The most prominent QoS-based service selection models only take the certain attributes into account, which is an ideal assumption. In the real world, there are a large number of uncertain factors. In particular, at the runtime, QoS may become very poor or unacceptable. In order to solve the problem, a global service selection model based on uncertain QoS was proposed, including the corresponding normalization and aggregation functions, and then a robust optimization model adopted to transform the model. Experiment results show that the proposed method can effectively select services with high robustness and optimality.

  13. Robust control synthesis for uncertain dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byun, Kuk-Whan; Wie, Bong; Sunkel, John

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents robust control synthesis techniques for uncertain dynamical systems subject to structured parameter perturbation. Both QFT (quantitative feedback theory) and H-infinity control synthesis techniques are investigated. Although most H-infinity-related control techniques are not concerned with the structured parameter perturbation, a new way of incorporating the parameter uncertainty in the robust H-infinity control design is presented. A generic model of uncertain dynamical systems is used to illustrate the design methodologies investigated in this paper. It is shown that, for a certain noncolocated structural control problem, use of both techniques results in nonminimum phase compensation.

  14. An Uncertain QFD Approach for the Strategic Management of Logistics Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengpeng Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to customers’ growing concern about logistics performances related to products, logistics service increasingly contributes to the core competence of an enterprise or product, which calls an appropriate tool to develop effective strategic actions to improve logistics performances and gain customer satisfaction. Therefore, an uncertain quality function deployment (QFD approach for selecting the most effective strategic actions in terms of efficiency to meet the customer requirements is developed in this paper, which integrates uncertainty theory into the traditional QFD methodology in order to rationally deal with imprecise information inherently involved in the QFD process. The framework and systematic procedures of the approach are presented in the context of logistics services. Specifically, the calculations for the prioritization of strategic actions are discussed in detail, in which uncertain variables are used to capture the linguistic judgements given by customers and experts. Applications of the proposed approach are presented as well for illustration.

  15. Fuzzy bicriteria multi-index transportation problems for coal allocation planning of Taipower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzeng, G.-H.; Teodorvic, D.; Hwang, M.-J.

    1996-01-01

    Taipower, the official electricity authority of Taiwan, encounters several difficulties in planning annual coal purchase and allocation schedule, e.g. with multiple sources, multiple destinations, multiple coal types, different shipping vessels, and even an uncertain demand and supply. In this study, these concerns are formulated as a fuzzy bicriteria multi-index transportation problem. Furthermore, an effective and interactive algorithm is proposed which combines reducing index method and interactive fuzzy multi-objective linear programming technique to cope with a complicated problem which may be prevalent in other industries. Results obtained in this study clearly demonstrate that this model can not only satisfy more of the actual requirements of the integral system but also offer more information to the decision makers (DMs) for reference in favor of exalting decision making quality. 34 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs

  16. Entity resolution for uncertain data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ayat, N.; Akbarinia, R.; Afsarmanesh, H.; Valduriez, P.

    2012-01-01

    Entity resolution (ER), also known as duplicate detection or record matching, is the problem of identifying the tuples that represent the same real world entity. In this paper, we address the problem of ER for uncertain data, which we call ERUD. We propose two different approaches for the ERUD

  17. Adaptive control of a quadrotor aerial vehicle with input constraints and uncertain parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Trong-Toan; Ge, Shuzhi Sam; He, Wei

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we address the problem of adaptive bounded control for the trajectory tracking of a Quadrotor Aerial Vehicle (QAV) while the input saturations and uncertain parameters with the known bounds are simultaneously taken into account. First, to deal with the underactuated property of the QAV model, we decouple and construct the QAV model as a cascaded structure which consists of two fully actuated subsystems. Second, to handle the input constraints and uncertain parameters, we use a combination of the smooth saturation function and smooth projection operator in the control design. Third, to ensure the stability of the overall system of the QAV, we develop the technique for the cascaded system in the presence of both the input constraints and uncertain parameters. Finally, the region of stability of the closed-loop system is constructed explicitly, and our design ensures the asymptotic convergence of the tracking errors to the origin. The simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  18. Formation Learning Control of Multiple Autonomous Underwater Vehicles With Heterogeneous Nonlinear Uncertain Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Chengzhi; Licht, Stephen; He, Haibo

    2017-09-26

    In this paper, a new concept of formation learning control is introduced to the field of formation control of multiple autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), which specifies a joint objective of distributed formation tracking control and learning/identification of nonlinear uncertain AUV dynamics. A novel two-layer distributed formation learning control scheme is proposed, which consists of an upper-layer distributed adaptive observer and a lower-layer decentralized deterministic learning controller. This new formation learning control scheme advances existing techniques in three important ways: 1) the multi-AUV system under consideration has heterogeneous nonlinear uncertain dynamics; 2) the formation learning control protocol can be designed and implemented by each local AUV agent in a fully distributed fashion without using any global information; and 3) in addition to the formation control performance, the distributed control protocol is also capable of accurately identifying the AUVs' heterogeneous nonlinear uncertain dynamics and utilizing experiences to improve formation control performance. Extensive simulations have been conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  19. Effectiveness of author-assigned keywords to INIS indexing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokoo, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Satoko; Habara, Tadashi

    1977-01-01

    A test was carried out on the quality of indexing data which is based only upon author-assigned keywords in order to appreciate effectiveness of the keywords. As measures of the quality, the retrievability and the consistency of the indexing data were evaluated by comparison with the case of the conventional indexing method under the circumstances of the INIS descriptor assignment to the journal articles of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan. The indexing consistency obtained was approximately 0.61 on an average (or 0.66 when the narrower-broader hierarchical relations were regarded as consistent ones). Of the hit, noise, or total documents retrieved with the conventional indexing data, 0.86, 0.27, or 0.71, respectively, were retrievable with the keywords-based indexing data. From the results the recall ratio for the keywords-based indexing is estimated to be no less than 0.86 of that for the conventional indexing method, and the consistency of the hit documents are to be 0.75 at least. Consequently, the author-assigned keywords proved to be very effective to the document indexing. (auth.)

  20. Polymorphic Uncertain Linear Programming for Generalized Production Planning Problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinbo Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A polymorphic uncertain linear programming (PULP model is constructed to formulate a class of generalized production planning problems. In accordance with the practical environment, some factors such as the consumption of raw material, the limitation of resource and the demand of product are incorporated into the model as parameters of interval and fuzzy subsets, respectively. Based on the theory of fuzzy interval program and the modified possibility degree for the order of interval numbers, a deterministic equivalent formulation for this model is derived such that a robust solution for the uncertain optimization problem is obtained. Case study indicates that the constructed model and the proposed solution are useful to search for an optimal production plan for the polymorphic uncertain generalized production planning problems.

  1. Passivity analysis and synthesis for uncertain time-delay systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdi S. Mahmoud

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the robust passivity analysis and synthesis problems for a class of uncertain time-delay systems. This class of systems arises in the modelling effort of studying water quality constituents in fresh stream. For the analysis problem, we derive a sufficient condition for which the uncertain time-delay system is robustly stable and strictly passive for all admissible uncertainties. The condition is given in terms of a linear matrix inequality. Both the delay-independent and delay-dependent cases are considered. For the synthesis problem, we propose an observer-based design method which guarantees that the closed-loop uncertain time-delay system is stable and strictly passive for all admissible uncertainties. Several examples are worked out to illustrate the developed theory.

  2. Fuzzy controller for an uncertain dynamical system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2002-01-01

    The present paper deals with the time-optimal control for mechanical systems with uncertain load. A fuzzy approach is used in the design of suboptimal feedback controllers, robust with respect to the load. Statistical kernel estimators are used for the specification of crucial parameters. The met......The present paper deals with the time-optimal control for mechanical systems with uncertain load. A fuzzy approach is used in the design of suboptimal feedback controllers, robust with respect to the load. Statistical kernel estimators are used for the specification of crucial parameters....... The methodology proposed in this work may be easily adopted to other modeling uncertainties of mechanical systems, e.g. motion resistance....

  3. Pinning adaptive synchronization of a class of uncertain complex dynamical networks with multi-link against network deterioration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Lixiang; Li, Weiwei; Kurths, Jürgen; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian; Li, Shudong

    2015-01-01

    For the reason that the uncertain complex dynamic network with multi-link is quite close to various practical networks, there is superiority in the fields of research and application. In this paper, we focus upon pinning adaptive synchronization for uncertain complex dynamic networks with multi-link against network deterioration. The pinning approach can be applied to adapt uncertain coupling factors of deteriorated networks which can compensate effects of uncertainty. Several new synchronization criterions for networks with multi-link are derived, which ensure the synchronized states to be local or global stable with uncertainty and deterioration. Results of simulation are shown to demonstrate the feasibility and usefulness of our method

  4. Robust lyapunov controller for uncertain systems

    KAUST Repository

    Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem; Elmetennani, Shahrazed

    2017-01-01

    Various examples of systems and methods are provided for Lyapunov control for uncertain systems. In one example, a system includes a process plant and a robust Lyapunov controller configured to control an input of the process plant. The robust

  5. An Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm for Uncertain Portfolio Selection

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Portfolio selection is an important issue for researchers and practitioners. In this paper, under the assumption that security returns are given by experts’ evaluations rather than historical data, we discuss the portfolio adjusting problem which takes transaction costs and diversification degree of portfolio into consideration. Uncertain variables are employed to describe the security returns. In the proposed mean-variance-entropy model, the uncertain mean value of the return is ...

  6. On the effective refractive index of blood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahmad-Rohen, Alexander; Contreras-Tello, Humberto; Morales-Luna, Gesuri; García-Valenzuela, Augusto

    2016-01-01

    We calculated the real and imaginary parts of the effective refractive index {n}{eff} of blood as functions of wavelength from 400 to 800 nm; we employed van de Hulst’s theory, together with the anomalous diffraction approximation, for the calculation. We modelled blood as a mixture of plasma and erythrocytes. Our results indicate that erythrocyte orientation has a strong effect on {n}{eff}, making blood an optically anisotropic medium except when the erythrocytes are randomly oriented. In the case in which their symmetry axis is perpendicular to the wave vector, {n}{eff} equals the refractive index of plasma at certain wavelengths. Furthermore, the erythrocytes’ shape affects their contribution to {n}{eff} in an important way, implying that studies on the effective refractive index of blood should avoid approximating them as spheres or spheroids. Finally, the effective refractive index of blood predicted by van de Hulst’s theory is different from what would be obtained by averaging the refractive indices of its constituents weighted by volume; such a volume-weighted average is appropriate only for haemolysed blood. We then measured the real part of the refractive index of various blood solutions using two different experimental setups. One of the most important results of our expriment is that {n}{eff} is measurable to a good degree of precision even for undiluted blood, although not all measuring apparatuses are appropriate. The experimental data is self-consistent and in reasonable agreement with our theoretical calculations.

  7. Millennial Teachers and Multiculturalism: Considerations for Teaching in Uncertain Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallman, Heidi L.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to explore the intersection of generational traits of millennial teachers, multiculturalism and teaching in an era of Uncertain Times. Uncertain Times, as a framework for the paper, characterizes changing aspects of the current era in which we live, such as the rise of the internet and interconnectivity, globalization and…

  8. Multiple point statistical simulation using uncertain (soft) conditional data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Thomas Mejer; Vu, Le Thanh; Mosegaard, Klaus; Cordua, Knud Skou

    2018-05-01

    Geostatistical simulation methods have been used to quantify spatial variability of reservoir models since the 80s. In the last two decades, state of the art simulation methods have changed from being based on covariance-based 2-point statistics to multiple-point statistics (MPS), that allow simulation of more realistic Earth-structures. In addition, increasing amounts of geo-information (geophysical, geological, etc.) from multiple sources are being collected. This pose the problem of integration of these different sources of information, such that decisions related to reservoir models can be taken on an as informed base as possible. In principle, though difficult in practice, this can be achieved using computationally expensive Monte Carlo methods. Here we investigate the use of sequential simulation based MPS simulation methods conditional to uncertain (soft) data, as a computational efficient alternative. First, it is demonstrated that current implementations of sequential simulation based on MPS (e.g. SNESIM, ENESIM and Direct Sampling) do not account properly for uncertain conditional information, due to a combination of using only co-located information, and a random simulation path. Then, we suggest two approaches that better account for the available uncertain information. The first make use of a preferential simulation path, where more informed model parameters are visited preferentially to less informed ones. The second approach involves using non co-located uncertain information. For different types of available data, these approaches are demonstrated to produce simulation results similar to those obtained by the general Monte Carlo based approach. These methods allow MPS simulation to condition properly to uncertain (soft) data, and hence provides a computationally attractive approach for integration of information about a reservoir model.

  9. Intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned Bonferroni means and their application to multiple attribute decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhengmin; Liu, Peide

    2017-04-01

    The Bonferroni mean (BM) was originally introduced by Bonferroni and generalised by many other researchers due to its capacity to capture the interrelationship between input arguments. Nevertheless, in many situations, interrelationships do not always exist between all of the attributes. Attributes can be partitioned into several different categories and members of intra-partition are interrelated while no interrelationship exists between attributes of different partitions. In this paper, as complements to the existing generalisations of BM, we investigate the partitioned Bonferroni mean (PBM) under intuitionistic uncertain linguistic environments and develop two linguistic aggregation operators: intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned Bonferroni mean (IULPBM) and its weighted form (WIULPBM). Then, motivated by the ideal of geometric mean and PBM, we further present the partitioned geometric Bonferroni mean (PGBM) and develop two linguistic geometric aggregation operators: intuitionistic uncertain linguistic partitioned geometric Bonferroni mean (IULPGBM) and its weighted form (WIULPGBM). Some properties and special cases of these proposed operators are also investigated and discussed in detail. Based on these operators, an approach for multiple attribute decision-making problems with intuitionistic uncertain linguistic information is developed. Finally, a practical example is presented to illustrate the developed approach and comparison analyses are conducted with other representative methods to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the developed approach.

  10. Structure Identification of Uncertain Complex Networks Based on Anticipatory Projective Synchronization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Heng

    Full Text Available This paper investigates a method to identify uncertain system parameters and unknown topological structure in general complex networks with or without time delay. A complex network, which has uncertain topology and unknown parameters, is designed as a drive network, and a known response complex network with an input controller is designed to identify the drive network. Under the proposed input controller, the drive network and the response network can achieve anticipatory projective synchronization when the system is steady. Lyapunov theorem and Barbǎlat's lemma guarantee the stability of synchronization manifold between two networks. When the synchronization is achieved, the system parameters and topology in response network can be changed to equal with the parameters and topology in drive network. A numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. Role of diagnostic laparoscopy in chronic abdominal conditions with uncertain diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amandeep S Nar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Laparoscopy has proved to be an important tool in the minimally invasive exploration of selected patients with chronic abdominal disorders, whose diagnosis remains uncertain, despite exploring the requisite laboratory and imaging investigations like ultrasonography, computed tomography (CT scan, and the like. Materials and Methods: Diagnostic Laparoscopy was conducted on 120 patients, admitted to the Departments of Surgery and Gynecology, Dayanand Medical College and Hospital, Ludhiana, with an uncertain diagnosis after four weeks of onset of symptoms. Conclusion: With laparoscopy providing tissue diagnosis, and helping to achieve the final diagnosis without any significant complication and less operative time, it can be safely concluded that diagnostic laparoscopy is a safe, quick, and effective adjunct to non-surgical diagnostic modalities, for establishing a conclusive diagnosis, but whether it will replace imaging studies as a primary modality for diagnosis needs more evidence.

  12. The role of uncertain self-esteem in self-handicapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R N; Snyder, C R

    1986-08-01

    In this article, the hypothesis that some individuals confronted with an intellectual evaluation use a lack of preparation as a "self-handicapping" strategy (Jones & Berglas, 1978) was studied. Sex and both level and certainty of self-esteem were examined in regard to the self-handicapping strategy of lack of effort. Subjects were 54 men and 54 women, certain and uncertain, high and low self-esteem college students, who believed that the experiment was designed to update local norms for a nonverbal test of intellectual ability. After subjects' level of state anxiety was assessed, they were instructed in the benefits of practicing for the evaluation. Subsequently, subjects' state anxiety and preparatory efforts (the primary dependent variables) were measured. Subjects' practice, self-protective attributions, and related affect supported a self-handicapping interpretation for uncertain males but not for uncertain females.

  13. Study on index system of GPS interference effect evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kun; Zeng, Fangling; Zhao, Yuan; Zeng, Ruiqi

    2018-05-01

    Satellite navigation interference effect evaluation is the key technology to break through the research of Navigation countermeasure. To evaluate accurately the interference degree and Anti-jamming ability of GPS receiver, this text based on the existing research results of Navigation interference effect evaluation, build the index system of GPS receiver effectiveness evaluation from four levels of signal acquisition, tracking, demodulation and positioning/timing and establish the model for each index. These indexes can accurately and quantitatively describe the interference effect at all levels.

  14. Quality Measures in Uncertain Data Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Keijzer, Ander; van Keulen, Maurice; Prade, H.; Subrahmanian, V.S.

    2007-01-01

    Many applications deal with data that is uncertain. Some examples are applications dealing with sensor information, data integration applications and healthcare applications. Instead of these applications having to deal with the uncertainty, it should be the responsibility of the DBMS to manage all

  15. Robust scheduling in an uncertain environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilson, M.

    2016-01-01

    This thesis presents research on scheduling in an uncertain environment, which forms a part of the rolling stock life cycle logistics applied research and development program funded by Dutch railway industry companies. The focus therefore lies on scheduling of maintenance operations on rolling stock

  16. Enabling time-dependent uncertain eco-weights for road networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Jilin; Yang, Bin; Jensen, Christian S.

    2017-01-01

    travel costs. Based on the techniques above, different histogram aggregation methods are proposed to accurately estimate time-dependent GHG emissions for routes. Based on a 200-million GPS record data set collected from 150 vehicles in Denmark over two years, a comprehensive empirical study is conducted...... transportation. The foundation of eco-routing is a weighted-graph representation of a road network in which road segments, or edges, are associated with eco-weights that capture the GHG emissions caused by traversing the edges. Due to the dynamics of traffic, the eco-weights are best modeled as being time...... dependent and uncertain. We formalize the problem of assigning a time-dependent, uncertain eco-weight to each edge in a road network based on historical GPS records. In particular, a sequence of histograms is employed to describe the uncertain eco-weight of an edge at different time intervals. Compression...

  17. A Novel Adaptive Observer-Based Control Scheme for Synchronization and Suppression of a Class of Uncertain Chaotic Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jing, Wang; Zhen-Yu, Tan; Xi-Kui, Ma; Jin-Feng, Gao

    2009-01-01

    A novel adaptive observer-based control scheme is presented for synchronization and suppression of a class of uncertain chaotic system. First, an adaptive observer based on an orthogonal neural network is designed. Subsequently, the sliding mode controllers via the proposed adaptive observer are proposed for synchronization and suppression of the uncertain chaotic systems. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation show the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. (general)

  18. Chattering-free fuzzy sliding-mode control strategy for uncertain chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yau, H.-T.; Chen, C.-L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes a chattering-free fuzzy sliding-mode control (FSMC) strategy for uncertain chaotic systems. A fuzzy logic control is used to replace the discontinuous sign function of the reaching law in traditional sliding-mode control (SMC), and hence a control input without chattering is obtained in the chaotic systems with uncertainties. Base on the Lyapunov stability theory, we address the design schemes of integration fuzzy sliding-mode control, where the reaching law is proposed by a set of linguistic rules and the control input is chattering free. The Genesio chaotic system is used to test the proposed control strategy and the simulation results show the FSMC not only can control the uncertain chaotic behaviors to a desired state without oscillator very fast, but also the switching function is smooth without chattering. This result implies that this strategy is feasible and effective for chaos control

  19. Airline Overbooking Problem with Uncertain No-Shows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunxiao Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers an airline overbooking problem of a new single-leg flight with discount fare. Due to the absence of historical data of no-shows for a new flight, and various uncertain human behaviors or unexpected events which causes that a few passengers cannot board their aircraft on time, we fail to obtain the probability distribution of no-shows. In this case, the airlines have to invite some domain experts to provide belief degree of no-shows to estimate its distribution. However, human beings often overestimate unlikely events, which makes the variance of belief degree much greater than that of the frequency. If we still regard the belief degree as a subjective probability, the derived results will exceed our expectations. In order to deal with this uncertainty, the number of no-shows of new flight is assumed to be an uncertain variable in this paper. Given the chance constraint of social reputation, an overbooking model with discount fares is developed to maximize the profit rate based on uncertain programming theory. Finally, the analytic expression of the optimal booking limit is obtained through a numerical example, and the results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the optimal booking limit is affected by flight capacity, discount, confidence level, and parameters of the uncertainty distribution significantly.

  20. Preparing for an Uncertain Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karolak, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Navigating the world of government relations and public policy can be a little like predicting the weather. One can't always be sure what's in store or how it will affect him/her down the road. But there are common patterns and a few basic steps that can help one best prepare for a change in the forecast. Though the forecast is uncertain, early…

  1. On robust control of uncertain chaotic systems: a sliding-mode synthesis via chaotic optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Zhao; Shieh Leangsan; Chen GuanRong

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a novel Lyapunov-based control approach which utilizes a Lyapunov function of the nominal plant for robust tracking control of general multi-input uncertain nonlinear systems. The difficulty of constructing a control Lyapunov function is alleviated by means of predefining an optimal sliding mode. The conventional schemes for constructing sliding modes of nonlinear systems stipulate that the system of interest is canonical-transformable or feedback-linearizable. An innovative approach that exploits a chaotic optimizing algorithm is developed thereby obtaining the optimal sliding manifold for the control purpose. Simulations on the uncertain chaotic Chen's system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach

  2. Association between gender inequality index and child mortality rates: a cross-national study of 138 countries

    OpenAIRE

    Brinda, Ethel Mary; Rajkumar, Anto P; Enemark, Ulrika

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Gender inequality weakens maternal health and harms children through many direct and indirect pathways. Allied biological disadvantage and psychosocial adversities challenge the survival of children of both genders. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has recently developed a Gender Inequality Index to measure the multidimensional nature of gender inequality. The global impact of Gender Inequality Index on the child mortality rates remains uncertain.METHODS: We employed an...

  3. Representation and management of temporal and uncertain knowledge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ziqiang

    1993-01-01

    This thesis contributes to the investigation of uncertain temporal knowledge representation and management, especially for process verification and supervisor systems design. The evolution of process behaviour is time dependent and information describing this temporal evolution is uncertain/imprecise. In Artificial Intelligence, time and uncertainty have been, since long-time, considered as two of the most difficult research fields. Furthermore, these two fields, even different, may be present in an interactive way. We now try to deal with this special kind of uncertainty: temporal uncertainty. Integrating time and uncertainty brings out study issues of temporal information representation, events ordering and temporal reasoning under uncertainty. The investigation of these problems has been guided by preserving the intrinsic properties of time. The main contribution of this thesis can be summarised as follows: (1) unified representation of uncertainty and imprecision over temporal information; (2) formal structuring of time under uncertainty; (3) formalising fuzzy temporal reasoning system; (4) modelling temporal evolution of process, providing associated reasoning mechanism to verify the process evolution, modelling fuzzy temporal Petri nets; (5) design and implementation of SURTEL, a programming tool for dealing with uncertain temporal information and knowledge. (author) [fr

  4. A novel research design can aid disinvestment from existing health technologies with uncertain effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and/or safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Terry; O'Brien, Lisa; McDermott, Fiona; Markham, Donna; Mitchell, Deb; Watterson, Dina; Skinner, Elizabeth

    2014-02-01

    Disinvestment is critical for ensuring the long-term sustainability of health-care services. Key barriers to disinvestment are heterogeneity between research and clinical settings, absence of evidence of effectiveness of some health technologies, and exposure of patients and organizations to risks and poor outcomes. We aimed to develop a feasible research design that can evaluate disinvestment in health technologies of uncertain effectiveness or cost-effectiveness. This article (1) establishes the need for disinvestment methodologies, (2) identifies the ethical concerns and feasibility constraints of conventional research designs for this issue, (3) describes the planning, implementation, and analytical framework for a novel disinvestment-specific study design, and (4) describes potential limitations in application of this design. The stepped-wedge, roll-in cluster randomized controlled trial can facilitate the disinvestment process, whereas generating evidence to determine whether the decision to disinvest was sound in the clinical environment. A noninferiority research paradigm may be applied to this methodology to demonstrate that the removal of a health technology does not adversely affect outcomes. This research design can be applied across multiple fields and will assist determination of whether specific health technologies are clinically effective, cost-effective, and safe. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Optimal Order Strategy in Uncertain Demands with Free Shipping Option

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Chun Meng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Free shipping with conditions has become one of the most effective marketing tools; more and more companies especially e-business companies prefer to offer free shipping to buyers whenever their orders exceed the minimum quantity specified by them. But in practice, the demands of buyers are uncertain, which are affected by weather, season, and many other factors. Firstly, we model the centralization ordering problem of retailers who face stochastic demands when suppliers offer free shipping, in which limited distributional information such as known mean, support, and some deviation measures of the random data is needed only. Then, based on the linear decision rule mainly for stochastic programming, we analyze the optimal order strategies of retailers and discuss the approximate solution. Further, we present the core allocation between all retailers via dual and cooperative game theory. The existence of core shows that each retailer is pleased to cooperate with others in the centralization problem. Finally, a numerical example is implemented to discuss how uncertain data and parameters affect the optimal solution.

  6. Robust tracking control of uncertain Duffing-Holmes control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Y.-J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the notion of virtual stabilizability for dynamical systems is introduced and the virtual stabilizability of uncertain Duffing-Holmes control systems is investigated. Based on the time-domain approach with differential inequality, a tracking control is proposed such that the states of uncertain Duffing-Holmes control system track the desired trajectories with any pre-specified exponential decay rate and convergence radius. Moreover, we present an algorithm to find such a tracking control. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the use of the main results.

  7. Uncertain estimation of activity measurement in Nuclear Medicine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Diaz, A.; Palau, S.P.A.; Cardenas, T.A.I.; Garcia, A.I.; Tulio, H.A.

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Accuracy and precision of dose is mandatory in radiopharmaceutical therapy procedures to guarantee the treatment success. The evaluation of uncertain in dose measurement in NM lab becomes a very important step, moreover if the operational parameters change between different equipment. In order to assure the traceability of activity measurements, and the quality assurance of dose administration, the behavior of two dose calibrator Capintec CRC-15R and PTW Curimentor 3, were studied. Accuracy, precision, linearity of activity response and reproducibility, and the activity uncertain determination with a second lab source were determined. Accuracy was evaluate using Tc 99m and I 131 Pstandard source (Secondary Standard Laboratory), for 10R vial (V) and 5 ml syringe (S) geometry, obtaining 1.3% (V-I 131 ), 1.4% (V -Tc 99m ), 0.8% (S -Tc 99m ) for CRC-15R and 2.3% (V-I 131 ), 1.1%(V-Tc 99m ), 1.0% (S-Tc 99m ) for Curimentor 3. Precision and Reproducibility was calculate using Cs 137 source. The reproducibility of CRC-15R and Curimentor 3 was less than 1.1% and 1.2 % respectively, during all evaluation time. The linearity of activity response was evaluate only for Tc 99m , and the results obtained were CRC 15R (672.97mCi 0.07 mCi, 1.3 % like mayor deviation) and Curimentor 3 (670.91mCi 0.08 mCi; 0.6 % like mayor deviation). To calculate the uncertain was use I 131 sources, the influences of calibration factor, linearity to activity, precision, reproducibility, background, half live time took into account. The typical combine uncertain for I 131 activity of was 2.24% for CRC-15R and 2.41% for Curimentor 3. The results were traceable between two equipment, no statistical significant differences were found for all tests. The equipment have a proper performance in the checked parameters, showing compliance with AIEA and National Authorities recommendation. Conclusion: The two equipmentcan be used in NM services with high level of traceability and confidence, with

  8. Functional brain networks involved in decision-making under certain and uncertain conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Danielle C.; Moss, Mark B.; Killiany, Ronald J. [Boston University School of Medicine, Department of Anatomy and Neurobiology, Boston, MA (United States); Mian, Asim Z. [Boston University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Budson, Andrew E. [VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA (United States)

    2018-01-15

    The aim of this study was to describe imaging markers of decision-making under uncertain conditions in normal individuals, in order to provide baseline activity to compare to impaired decision-making in pathological states. In this cross-sectional study, 19 healthy subjects ages 18-35 completed a novel decision-making card-matching task using a Phillips T3 Scanner and a 32-channel head coil. Functional data were collected in six functional runs. In one condition of the task, the participant was certain of the rule to apply to match the cards; in the other condition, the participant was uncertain. We performed cluster-based comparison of the two conditions using FSL fMRI Expert Analysis Tool and network-based analysis using MATLAB. The uncertain > certain comparison yielded three clusters - a midline cluster that extended through the midbrain, the thalamus, bilateral prefrontal cortex, the striatum, and bilateral parietal/occipital clusters. The certain > uncertain comparison yielded bilateral clusters in the insula, parietal and temporal lobe, as well as a medial frontal cluster. A larger, more connected functional network was found in the uncertain condition. The involvement of the insula, parietal cortex, temporal cortex, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and orbitofrontal cortex of the certain condition reinforces the notion that certainty is inherently rewarding. For the uncertain condition, the involvement of the prefrontal cortex, parietal cortex, striatum, thalamus, amygdala, and hippocampal involvement was expected, as these are areas involved in resolving uncertainty and rule updating. The involvement of occipital cortical involvement and midbrain involvement may be attributed to increased visual attention and increased motor control. (orig.)

  9. Functional brain networks involved in decision-making under certain and uncertain conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farrar, Danielle C.; Moss, Mark B.; Killiany, Ronald J.; Mian, Asim Z.; Budson, Andrew E.

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to describe imaging markers of decision-making under uncertain conditions in normal individuals, in order to provide baseline activity to compare to impaired decision-making in pathological states. In this cross-sectional study, 19 healthy subjects ages 18-35 completed a novel decision-making card-matching task using a Phillips T3 Scanner and a 32-channel head coil. Functional data were collected in six functional runs. In one condition of the task, the participant was certain of the rule to apply to match the cards; in the other condition, the participant was uncertain. We performed cluster-based comparison of the two conditions using FSL fMRI Expert Analysis Tool and network-based analysis using MATLAB. The uncertain > certain comparison yielded three clusters - a midline cluster that extended through the midbrain, the thalamus, bilateral prefrontal cortex, the striatum, and bilateral parietal/occipital clusters. The certain > uncertain comparison yielded bilateral clusters in the insula, parietal and temporal lobe, as well as a medial frontal cluster. A larger, more connected functional network was found in the uncertain condition. The involvement of the insula, parietal cortex, temporal cortex, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and orbitofrontal cortex of the certain condition reinforces the notion that certainty is inherently rewarding. For the uncertain condition, the involvement of the prefrontal cortex, parietal cortex, striatum, thalamus, amygdala, and hippocampal involvement was expected, as these are areas involved in resolving uncertainty and rule updating. The involvement of occipital cortical involvement and midbrain involvement may be attributed to increased visual attention and increased motor control. (orig.)

  10. Robust output feedback H-infinity control and filtering for uncertain linear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chang, Xiao-Heng

    2014-01-01

    "Robust Output Feedback H-infinity Control and Filtering for Uncertain Linear Systems" discusses new and meaningful findings on robust output feedback H-infinity control and filtering for uncertain linear systems, presenting a number of useful and less conservative design results based on the linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique. Though primarily intended for graduate students in control and filtering, the book can also serve as a valuable reference work for researchers wishing to explore the area of robust H-infinity control and filtering of uncertain systems. Dr. Xiao-Heng Chang is a Professor at the College of Engineering, Bohai University, China.

  11. Green taxes and uncertain timing of technological change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aronsson, T.

    2001-01-01

    This paper concerns the role of environmental taxation in a model with endogenous technological change, where the latter implies that natural inputs become more productive. The timing of technological change is, in turn, uncertain and the likelihood of discovering the new technology is related to the amount of resources spent on R and D. The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model. One purpose of the paper is to design a policy so as to internalize the external effects arising from pollution and R and D. Another is to develop cost benefit rules for green tax reforms, when the initial equilibrium is suboptimal

  12. Management of Uncertain Data - towards unattended integration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Keijzer, Ander

    2008-01-01

    In recent years, the need to support uncertain data has increased. Sensor applications, for example, are dealing with the inherent uncertainty about the readings of the sensors. Current database management systems are not equipped to deal with this uncertainty, other than as a user defined

  13. Chance constrained uncertain classification via robust optimization

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ben-Tal, A.; Bhadra, S.; Bhattacharayya, C.; Saketha Nat, J.

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the problem of constructing robust classifiers when the training is plagued with uncertainty. The problem is posed as a Chance-Constrained Program (CCP) which ensures that the uncertain data points are classified correctly with high probability. Unfortunately such a CCP turns out

  14. Licensing Uncertain Patents: Per-Unit Royalty vs Up-Front Fee

    OpenAIRE

    Encaoua , David; Lefouili , Yassine

    2008-01-01

    ED EPS; In this paper we examine the implications of uncertainty over patent validity on patentholders' licensing strategies. Two licensing mechanisms are examined: per-unit royalty and up-front fee.We provide conditions under which uncertain patents are licensed in order to avoid patent litigation. It is shown that while it is possible for the patentholder to reap som e "extra profit" by selling an uncertain patent under the pure per-unit royalty regime, the opportunity to do so does not exi...

  15. Synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems using a single transmission channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yong; Yu Xinghuo; Sun Lixia

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust sliding mode observer for synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems with multi-nonlinearities. A new control strategy is proposed for the construction of the robust sliding mode observer, which can avoid the strict conditions in the design process of Walcott-Zak observer. A new method of multi-dimensional signal transmission via single transmission channel is proposed and applied to chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems with multi-nonlinearities. The simulation results are presented to validate the method

  16. Constructor:synthesizing information about uncertain variables.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, W. Troy (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY); Myers, David S. (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, NY)

    2005-09-01

    Constructor is software for the Microsoft Windows microcomputer environment that facilitates the collation of empirical information and expert judgment for the specification of probability distributions, probability boxes, random sets or Dempster-Shafer structures from data, qualitative shape information, constraints on moments, order statistics, densities, and coverage probabilities about uncertain unidimensional quantities. These quantities may be real-valued, integer-valued or logical values.

  17. Metabolic effects of low glycaemic index diets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rusu Emilia

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The persistence of an epidemic of obesity and type 2 diabetes suggests that new nutritional strategies are needed if the epidemic is to be overcome. A promising nutritional approach suggested by this thematic review is metabolic effect of low glycaemic-index diet. The currently available scientific literature shows that low glycaemic-index diets acutely induce a number of favorable effects, such as a rapid weight loss, decrease of fasting glucose and insulin levels, reduction of circulating triglyceride levels and improvement of blood pressure. The long-term effect of the combination of these changes is at present not known. Based on associations between these metabolic parameters and risk of cardiovascular disease, further controlled studies on low-GI diet and metabolic disease are needed.

  18. The cost effectiveness of 123I-FP-CIT SPECT imaging in patients with an uncertain clinical diagnosis of parkinsonism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laere, Koen van; Everaert, Ludwig; Annemans, Lieven; Gonce, Michel; Vandenberghe, Wim; Vander Borght, Thierry

    2008-01-01

    123 I-N-ω-fluoropropyl-2-β-carboxymethoxy-3β-(4-iodophenyl )nortropane ( 123 I-FP-CIT) Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) has been suggested to be a useful diagnostic adjunct in patients with clinically uncertain parkinsonism. We developed a pharmaco-economic (PE) model, evaluating the cost effectiveness of adding 123 I-FP-CIT SPECT to the diagnostic workup. As the model was developed before application of the diagnostic technique in real practice, a predictive validity assessment was performed based on data from a large nationwide patient registry in these patients. A PE model, using a Markov state transition model, was created, based on literature-derived and clinical expert panel data. Effects were expressed as adequately treated years (ATY). Key input data were compared to the real-life patterns in a nationwide multi-centre clinical setting, based on a complete national registry of 1,701 consecutive patients. The change in initial diagnosis and alteration of management of the patient after SPECT were registered. In the PE model, it was calculated that management would change in 48.5% of patients by SPECT and that, over a 5-year period, 1.2 ATYs could be gained at a yearly additional cost of EUR72. From the studied 1,701 patients, nigrostriatal degeneration was observed in 59.8%, the initial diagnosis was changed in 51.5%, management was altered in 49%, and cost effectiveness was increased to EUR358 per ATY. Good correspondence between assumed and observed changes in patient management was found, indicating that 123 I-FP-CIT SPECT is influential in diagnosis and management of patients with uncertain clinical diagnosis of parkinsonism. This can be achieved at a marginal added cost to the health insurance and leads to a significant gain in ATY. (orig.)

  19. Adaptive Neural Output Feedback Control for Uncertain Robot Manipulators with Input Saturation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Mei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an adaptive neural output feedback control scheme for uncertain robot manipulators with input saturation using the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN and disturbance observer. First, the RBFNN is used to approximate the system uncertainty, and the unknown approximation error of the RBFNN and the time-varying unknown external disturbance of robot manipulators are integrated as a compounded disturbance. Then, the state observer and the disturbance observer are proposed to estimate the unmeasured system state and the unknown compounded disturbance based on RBFNN. At the same time, the adaptation technique is employed to tackle the control input saturation problem. Utilizing the estimate outputs of the RBFNN, the state observer, and the disturbance observer, the adaptive neural output feedback control scheme is developed for robot manipulators using the backstepping technique. The convergence of all closed-loop signals is rigorously proved via Lyapunov analysis and the asymptotically convergent tracking error is obtained under the integrated effect of the system uncertainty, the unmeasured system state, the unknown external disturbance, and the input saturation. Finally, numerical simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive neural output feedback control scheme for uncertain robot manipulators.

  20. Optimization Model for Uncertain Statistics Based on an Analytic Hierarchy Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongchao Hou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertain statistics is a methodology for collecting and interpreting the expert’s experimental data by uncertainty theory. In order to estimate uncertainty distributions, an optimization model based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP and interpolation method is proposed in this paper. In addition, the principle of least squares method is presented to estimate uncertainty distributions with known functional form. Finally, the effectiveness of this method is illustrated by an example.

  1. Uncertain climate policy and the green paradox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, Sjak A.; Tsur, Y.; Zemel, A.; Moser, E.; Semmler, W.; Tragler, G.; Veliov, V.

    2014-01-01

    Unintended consequences of announcing a climate policy well in advance of its implementation have been studied in a variety of situations. We show that a phenomenon akin to the so-called “Green-Paradox” holds also when the policy implementation date is uncertain. Governments are compelled, by

  2. Sensitivity in risk analyses with uncertain numbers.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tucker, W. Troy; Ferson, Scott

    2006-06-01

    Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.

  3. The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neta, Maital; Cantelon, Julie; Haga, Zachary; Mahoney, Caroline R; Taylor, Holly A; Davis, F Caroline

    2017-12-01

    Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to interpret ambiguous cues negatively. Such negative interpretations are likely adaptive in situations in which threat detection is critical for survival and should override an individual's tendency to interpret ambiguity positively in safe contexts. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Parameter Identification and Synchronization of Uncertain Chaotic Systems Based on Sliding Mode Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-lian Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The synchronization of nonlinear uncertain chaotic systems is investigated. We propose a sliding mode state observer scheme which combines the sliding mode control with observer theory and apply it into the uncertain chaotic system with unknown parameters and bounded interference. Based on Lyapunov stability theory, the constraints of synchronization and proof are given. This method not only can realize the synchronization of chaotic systems, but also identify the unknown parameters and obtain the correct parameter estimation. Otherwise, the synchronization of chaotic systems with unknown parameters and bounded external disturbances is robust by the design of the sliding surface. Finally, numerical simulations on Liu chaotic system with unknown parameters and disturbances are carried out. Simulation results show that this synchronization and parameter identification has been totally achieved and the effectiveness is verified very well.

  5. Modelling of risk events with uncertain likelihoods and impacts in large infrastructure projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2010-01-01

    to prevent future budget overruns. One of the central ideas is to introduce improved risk management processes and the present paper addresses this particular issue. A relevant cost function in terms of unit prices and quantities is developed and an event impact matrix with uncertain impacts from independent......This paper presents contributions to the mathematical core of risk and uncertainty management in compliance with the principles of New Budgeting laid out in 2008 by the Danish Ministry of Transport to be used in large infrastructure projects. Basically, the new principles are proposed in order...... uncertain risk events is used to calculate the total uncertain risk budget. Cost impacts from the individual risk events on the individual project activities are kept precisely track of in order to comply with the requirements of New Budgeting. Additionally, uncertain likelihoods for the occurrence of risk...

  6. Robust adaptive controller design for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems using online T-S fuzzy-neural modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chien, Yi-Hsing; Wang, Wei-Yen; Leu, Yih-Guang; Lee, Tsu-Tian

    2011-04-01

    This paper proposes a novel method of online modeling and control via the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy-neural model for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems with some kinds of outputs. Although studies about adaptive T-S fuzzy-neural controllers have been made on some nonaffine nonlinear systems, little is known about the more complicated uncertain nonlinear systems. Because the nonlinear functions of the systems are uncertain, traditional T-S fuzzy control methods can model and control them only with great difficulty, if at all. Instead of modeling these uncertain functions directly, we propose that a T-S fuzzy-neural model approximates a so-called virtual linearized system (VLS) of the system, which includes modeling errors and external disturbances. We also propose an online identification algorithm for the VLS and put significant emphasis on robust tracking controller design using an adaptive scheme for the uncertain systems. Moreover, the stability of the closed-loop systems is proven by using strictly positive real Lyapunov theory. The proposed overall scheme guarantees that the outputs of the closed-loop systems asymptotically track the desired output trajectories. To illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method, simulation results are given in this paper.

  7. Gingival immunologic defense index: a new indicator for evaluating dental plaque infection risk in allergic children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seno Pradopo

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a possible relationship between dental plaque and children allergic diseases. According to literatures, gingivitis suffered mostly by allergic children than control. Case reports also revealed that dental plaque control therapy was able to reduce, even eliminate rhinosinusitis and asthmatic symptoms without additional medications. However, the exact method for confirming the gingivitis-related allergy is still uncertain. Allergic diseases have multifactorial etiologies and dental plaque had been proposed as a new trigger of allergic symptoms. Nevertheless, since not every child with gingivitis suffered from allergy or vice versa, this uncertain phenomenon may lead to patients or other clinician disbelief. The objective of the present study was to propose a new method, which involving the Gingival immunologic defense index (GIDI to evaluate the susceptibility to allergic diseases. GIDI is an index that had been developed earlier for evaluating gingival immunologic defense with respect to immunoglobulin A (IgA levels. This index based on the simple count of the inflamed gingival surfaces of a child plus the measurement of salivary IgA content. It provides clinicians with important information about the immunologic defense potential of each subject. Interestingly, most allergic children also had inherited IgA deficiency, thus this concept is likely. Based on literatures, GIDI could be a potential index for evaluating the risk of allergic diseases through gingival health assessment. However, prior investigation to the value of Indonesian GIDI index which related to allergy should be conducted.

  8. A modified hybrid uncertain analysis method for dynamic response field of the LSOAAC with random and interval parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Bin; Zhou, Bin

    2016-07-01

    For the prediction of dynamic response field of the luffing system of an automobile crane (LSOAAC) with random and interval parameters, a hybrid uncertain model is introduced. In the hybrid uncertain model, the parameters with certain probability distribution are modeled as random variables, whereas, the parameters with lower and upper bounds are modeled as interval variables instead of given precise values. Based on the hybrid uncertain model, the hybrid uncertain dynamic response equilibrium equation, in which different random and interval parameters are simultaneously included in input and output terms, is constructed. Then a modified hybrid uncertain analysis method (MHUAM) is proposed. In the MHUAM, based on random interval perturbation method, the first-order Taylor series expansion and the first-order Neumann series, the dynamic response expression of the LSOAAC is developed. Moreover, the mathematical characteristics of extrema of bounds of dynamic response are determined by random interval moment method and monotonic analysis technique. Compared with the hybrid Monte Carlo method (HMCM) and interval perturbation method (IPM), numerical results show the feasibility and efficiency of the MHUAM for solving the hybrid LSOAAC problems. The effects of different uncertain models and parameters on the LSOAAC response field are also investigated deeply, and numerical results indicate that the impact made by the randomness in the thrust of the luffing cylinder F is larger than that made by the gravity of the weight in suspension Q . In addition, the impact made by the uncertainty in the displacement between the lower end of the lifting arm and the luffing cylinder a is larger than that made by the length of the lifting arm L .

  9. Secure estimation, control and optimization of uncertain cyber-physical systems with applications to power networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Ahmad Fayez

    observers---observers/estimators for uncertain CPSs---are designed such that the effect of time-delays and cyber-induced perturbations are minimized, enabling secure DSE and risk mitigation in the first two parts. The final part deals with the extreme time-scales encompassed in CPSs, generally, and smart grids, specifically. Operational decisions for long time-scales can adversely affect the security of CPSs for faster time-scales. We present a model that jointly describes steady-state operation and transient stability by combining convex optimal power flow with semidefinite programming formulations of an optimal control problem. This approach can be jointly utilized with the aforementioned parts of the dissertation work, considering time-delays and DSE. The research contributions of this dissertation furnish CPS stakeholders with insights on the design and operation of uncertain CPSs, whilst guaranteeing the system's real-time safety. Finally, although many of the results of this dissertation are tailored to power systems, the results are general enough to be applied for a variety of uncertain CPSs.

  10. Altered brain activation and connectivity during anticipation of uncertain threat in trait anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Haiyang; Wang, Yi; Gu, Ruolei; Luo, Yue-Jia; Xu, Pengfei; Huang, Yuxia; Li, Xuebing

    2018-06-08

    In the research field of anxiety, previous studies generally focus on emotional responses following threat. A recent model of anxiety proposes that altered anticipation prior to uncertain threat is related with the development of anxiety. Behavioral findings have built the relationship between anxiety and distinct anticipatory processes including attention, estimation of threat, and emotional responses. However, few studies have characterized the brain organization underlying anticipation of uncertain threat and its role in anxiety. In the present study, we used an emotional anticipation paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine the aforementioned topics by employing brain activation and general psychophysiological interactions (gPPI) analysis. In the activation analysis, we found that high trait anxious individuals showed significantly increased activation in the thalamus, middle temporal gyrus (MTG), and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC), as well as decreased activation in the precuneus, during anticipation of uncertain threat compared to the certain condition. In the gPPI analysis, the key regions including the amygdala, dmPFC, and precuneus showed altered connections with distributed brain areas including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC), inferior parietal sulcus (IPS), insula, para-hippocampus gyrus (PHA), thalamus, and MTG involved in anticipation of uncertain threat in anxious individuals. Taken together, our findings indicate that during the anticipation of uncertain threat, anxious individuals showed altered activations and functional connectivity in widely distributed brain areas, which may be critical for abnormal perception, estimation, and emotion reactions during the anticipation of uncertain threat. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Design of Robust AMB Controllers for Rotors Subjected to Varying and Uncertain Seal Forces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Jonas Skjødt; Santos, Ilmar

    2017-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the design and simulation results of model based controllers for AMB systems, subjectedto uncertain and changing dynamic seal forces. Specifically, a turbocharger with a hole-pattern seal mounted acrossthe balance piston is considered. The dynamic forces of the seal, which...... are dependent on the operational conditions,have a significant effect on the overall system dynamics. Furthermore, these forces are considered uncertain.The nominal and the uncertainty representation of the seal model are established using results from conventionalmodelling approaches, i.e. CFD and Bulkflow......, and experimental results. Three controllers are synthesized: I) AnH∞ controller based on nominal plant representation, II) A µ controller, designed to be robust against uncertaintiesin the dynamic seal model and III) a Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) controller, designed to provide a unifiedperformance over a large...

  12. Probabilistic logic networks a comprehensive framework for uncertain inference

    CERN Document Server

    Goertzel, Ben; Goertzel, Izabela Freire; Heljakka, Ari

    2008-01-01

    This comprehensive book describes Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN), a novel conceptual, mathematical and computational approach to uncertain inference. A broad scope of reasoning types are considered.

  13. G-index: A new metric to describe dynamic refractive index effects in HPLC absorbance detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraiczek, Karsten G; Rozing, Gerard P; Zengerle, Roland

    2018-09-01

    High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with a solvent gradient and absorbance detection is one of the most widely used methods in analytical chemistry. The observed absorbance baseline is affected by the changes in the refractive index (RI) of the mobile phase. Near the limited of detection, this complicates peak quantitation. The general aspects of these RI-induced apparent absorbance effects are discussed. Two different detectors with fundamentally different optics and flow cell concepts, a variable-wavelength detector equipped with a conventional flow cell and a diode-array detector equipped with a liquid core waveguide flow cell, are compared with respect to their RI behavior. A simple method to separate static - partly unavoidable - RI effects from dynamic RI effects is presented. It is shown that the dynamic RI behavior of an absorbance detector can be well described using a single, relatively easy-to-determine metric called the G-index. The G-index is typically in the order of a few seconds and its sign depends on the optical flow cell concept. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Uncertain Portfolio Selection with Background Risk and Liquidity Constraint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Zhai

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses an uncertain portfolio selection problem with consideration of background risk and asset liquidity. In addition, the transaction costs are also considered. The security returns, background asset return, and asset liquidity are estimated by experienced experts instead of historical data. Regarding them as uncertain variables, a mean-risk model with background risk, liquidity, and transaction costs is proposed for portfolio selection and the crisp forms of the model are provided when security returns obey different uncertainty distributions. Moreover, for better understanding of the impact of background risk and liquidity on portfolio selection, some important theorems are proved. Finally, numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the modeling idea.

  15. Robust Stabilization of Nonlinear Systems with Uncertain Varying Control Coefficient

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaiyue Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the stabilization problem for a class of nonlinear systems, whose control coefficient is uncertain and varies continuously in value and sign. The study emphasizes the development of a robust control that consists of a modified Nussbaum function to tackle the uncertain varying control coefficient. By such a method, the finite-time escape phenomenon has been prevented when the control coefficient is crossing zero and varying its sign. The proposed control guarantees the asymptotic stabilization of the system and boundedness of all closed-loop signals. The control performance is illustrated by a numerical simulation.

  16. A model for the inverse 1-median problem on trees under uncertain costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kien Trung Nguyen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of justifying vertex weights of a tree under uncertain costs so that a prespecified vertex become optimal and the total cost should be optimal in the uncertainty scenario. We propose a model which delivers the information about the optimal cost which respect to each confidence level \\(\\alpha \\in [0,1]\\. To obtain this goal, we first define an uncertain variable with respect to the minimum cost in each confidence level. If all costs are independently linear distributed, we present the inverse distribution function of this uncertain variable in \\(O(n^{2}\\log n\\ time, where \\(n\\ is the number of vertices in the tree.

  17. A MODIFIED GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR FINDING FUZZY SHORTEST PATHS IN UNCERTAIN NETWORKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Heidari

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In realistic network analysis, there are several uncertainties in the measurements and computation of the arcs and vertices. These uncertainties should also be considered in realizing the shortest path problem (SPP due to the inherent fuzziness in the body of expert's knowledge. In this paper, we investigated the SPP under uncertainty to evaluate our modified genetic strategy. We improved the performance of genetic algorithm (GA to investigate a class of shortest path problems on networks with vague arc weights. The solutions of the uncertain SPP with considering fuzzy path lengths are examined and compared in detail. As a robust metaheuristic, GA algorithm is modified and evaluated to tackle the fuzzy SPP (FSPP with uncertain arcs. For this purpose, first, a dynamic operation is implemented to enrich the exploration/exploitation patterns of the conventional procedure and mitigate the premature convergence of GA technique. Then, the modified GA (MGA strategy is used to resolve the FSPP. The attained results of the proposed strategy are compared to those of GA with regard to the cost, quality of paths and CPU times. Numerical instances are provided to demonstrate the success of the proposed MGA-FSPP strategy in comparison with GA. The simulations affirm that not only the proposed technique can outperform GA, but also the qualities of the paths are effectively improved. The results clarify that the competence of the proposed GA is preferred in view of quality quantities. The results also demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently be utilized to handle FSPP in uncertain networks.

  18. Robust Optimization for Household Load Scheduling with Uncertain Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jidong Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Home energy management systems (HEMS face many challenges of uncertainty, which have a great impact on the scheduling of home appliances. To handle the uncertain parameters in the household load scheduling problem, this paper uses a robust optimization method to rebuild the household load scheduling model for home energy management. The model proposed in this paper can provide the complete robust schedules for customers while considering the disturbance of uncertain parameters. The complete robust schedules can not only guarantee the customers’ comfort constraints but also cooperatively schedule the electric devices for cost minimization and load shifting. Moreover, it is available for customers to obtain multiple schedules through setting different robust levels while considering the trade-off between the comfort and economy.

  19. Synchronization and parameter estimations of an uncertain Rikitake system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilar-Ibanez, Carlos; Martinez-Guerra, Rafael; Aguilar-Lopez, Ricardo; Mata-Machuca, Juan L.

    2010-01-01

    In this Letter we address the synchronization and parameter estimation of the uncertain Rikitake system, under the assumption the state is partially known. To this end we use the master/slave scheme in conjunction with the adaptive control technique. Our control approach consists of proposing a slave system which has to follow asymptotically the uncertain Rikitake system, refereed as the master system. The gains of the slave system are adjusted continually according to a convenient adaptation control law, until the measurable output errors converge to zero. The convergence analysis is carried out by using the Barbalat's Lemma. Under this context, uncertainty means that although the system structure is known, only a partial knowledge of the corresponding parameter values is available.

  20. An Integrated Multiechelon Logistics Model with Uncertain Delivery Lead Time and Quality Unreliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Feng Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in order to achieve advantages in supply chain management, how to keep inventory in adequate level and how to enhance customer service level are two critical practices for decision makers. Generally, uncertain lead time and defective products have much to do with inventory and service level. Therefore, this study mainly aims at developing a multiechelon integrated just-in-time inventory model with uncertain lead time and imperfect quality to enhance the benefits of the logistics model. In addition, the Ant Colony Algorithm (ACA is established to determine the optimal solutions. Moreover, based on our proposed model and analysis, the ACA is more efficient than Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO and Lingo in SMEIJI model. An example is provided in this study to illustrate how production run and defective rate have an effect on system costs. Finally, the results of our research could provide some managerial insights which support decision makers in real-world operations.

  1. A New Bi-Directional Projection Model Based on Pythagorean Uncertain Linguistic Variable

    OpenAIRE

    Huidong Wang; Shifan He; Xiaohong Pan

    2018-01-01

    To solve the multi-attribute decision making (MADM) problems with Pythagorean uncertain linguistic variable, an extended bi-directional projection method is proposed. First, we utilize the linguistic scale function to convert uncertain linguistic variable and provide a new projection model, subsequently. Then, to depict the bi-directional projection method, the formative vectors of alternatives and ideal alternatives are defined. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with projection model is co...

  2. "The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity": Correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    Reports an error in "The impact of uncertain threat on affective bias: Individual differences in response to ambiguity" by Maital Neta, Julie Cantelon, Zachary Haga, Caroline R. Mahoney, Holly A. Taylor and F. Caroline Davis ( Emotion , 2017[Dec], Vol 17[8], 1137-1143). In this article, the copyright attribution was incorrectly listed under the Creative Commons CC-BY license due to production-related error. The correct copyright should be "In the public domain." The online version of this article has been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2017-40275-001.) Individuals who operate under highly stressful conditions (e.g., military personnel and first responders) are often faced with the challenge of quickly interpreting ambiguous information in uncertain and threatening environments. When faced with ambiguity, it is likely adaptive to view potentially dangerous stimuli as threatening until contextual information proves otherwise. One laboratory-based paradigm that can be used to simulate uncertain threat is known as threat of shock (TOS), in which participants are told that they might receive mild but unpredictable electric shocks while performing an unrelated task. The uncertainty associated with this potential threat induces a state of emotional arousal that is not overwhelmingly stressful, but has widespread-both adaptive and maladaptive-effects on cognitive and affective function. For example, TOS is thought to enhance aversive processing and abolish positivity bias. Importantly, in certain situations (e.g., when walking home alone at night), this anxiety can promote an adaptive state of heightened vigilance and defense mobilization. In the present study, we used TOS to examine the effects of uncertain threat on valence bias, or the tendency to interpret ambiguous social cues as positive or negative. As predicted, we found that heightened emotional arousal elicited by TOS was associated with an increased tendency to

  3. [Treatment of aerobic vaginitis and clinically uncertain causes of vulvovaginal discomfort].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepický, P; Malina, J; Kuzelová, M

    2003-11-01

    The treatment of clinically uncertain conditions of vaginal discomforts with a mixed preparation of nifuratel + nystatin (Macmiror complex) and the relation of uncertain conditions to aerobic vaginitis. A prospective study. Gynecology-Obstetrics Outpatient Department LEVRET Ltd., AescuLab Ltd., Laboratory of Microbiology, Prague. 50 women with vaginal discomfort, causes of which had not been clarified by gynecological examination, determination of pH and the amine test, were examined by vaginal smears using microscopy. The results were evaluated in relation to aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or in combination with other nosological units. The authors also evaluated results of therapy by oral nifuratel (Macmiror tbl) 3 x 200 mg daily and a vaginal combined preparation containing nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU (Macmiror complex 500 glo vag) for the period of 7 days. In 50 women candida was demonstrated 24 times, presence of key cells 11 times, lactobacillus nine times with more than 50 in the field, six women were affected by aerobic vaginitis. In all these cases the pH was 4.8 or higher, leukocytes were significantly represented in all cases (> 15 in the field), as well as gram-negative bacteria and/or cocci (> 30 in the field), indicating a combined picture of mycosis, anaerobic vaginosis or lactobacillosis with aerobic vaginitis. The therapy was successful in all cases, the relapse of complaints during one month occurred in three cases. Aerobic vaginitis in a pure form or with anaerobic vaginosis, mycosis or lactobacillosis is frequently concealed under clinically uncertain pictures of vulvo-vaginal discomfort. The therapy by a combination of nifurated 3 x 200 mg orally together with the combined vaginal preparation nifuratel 500 mg + nystatin 200 kIU for the period of 7 days exerts high effect and a low number of relapses.

  4. Effects of Body Mass Index on Lung Function Index of Chinese Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qiao; Ye, Jun; Yang, Jian; Zhu, Changan; Sheng, Lei; Zhang, Yongliang

    2018-01-01

    To study the effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung function indexes in Chinese population. A cross-sectional study was performed on 10, 592 participants. The linear relationship between lung function and BMI was evaluated by multivariate linear regression analysis, and the correlation between BMI and lung function was assessed by Pearson correlation analysis. Correlation analysis showed that BMI was positively related with the decreasing of forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and FEV1/FVC (P <0.05), the increasing of FVC% predicted value (FVC%pre) and FEV1% predicted value (FEV1%pre). These suggested that Chinese people can restrain the decline of lung function to prevent the occurrence and development of COPD by the control of BMI.

  5. Energy pricing under uncertain supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serra, P.J.

    1997-01-01

    This paper introduces a new pricing system - based on the Chilean tariff regulations - to deal with an uncertain energy supply. It consists of a basic rate for each unit actually consumed and a compensation that the utilities pay their customers for each unit of energy that they voluntarily reduce below their normal consumption during an energy shortage. Within the framework of a model that portrays the stylized facts of the Chilean electric system, and assumes risk-neutral agents, this paper shows the equivalency of the new pricing system with both contingent pricing and priority pricing. (Author)

  6. The Uncertain of Scientific Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovina dÁvila Bordoni

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The study assesses the existence of certainty in the scientific process, it seeks the truth, however, faced with the unknown, causes uncertainties and doubts. We used the bibliographical research, in which it systematized the scientific literature on epistemology and knowledge related to the scientific process and the uncertainties that surround him. The scientific process, though continuously seeks the truth, will not attain perfection, because the researcher deals with the unknown. The science seeks constantly new knowledge and progress with the criticism of the mistakes, seeks the truth, however these are provisional. It is concluded that all scientific knowledge is uncertain.

  7. Exponential Synchronization of Uncertain Complex Dynamical Networks with Delay Coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Lifu; Kong Zhi; Jing Yuanwei

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the global exponential synchronization of uncertain complex delayed dynamical networks. The network model considered is general dynamical delay networks with unknown network structure and unknown coupling functions but bounded. Novel delay-dependent linear controllers are designed via the Lyapunov stability theory. Especially, it is shown that the controlled networks are globally exponentially synchronized with a given convergence rate. An example of typical dynamical network of this class, having the Lorenz system at each node, has been used to demonstrate and verify the novel design proposed. And, the numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of proposed synchronization approaches. (general)

  8. Relativistic effects on complexity indexes in atoms in position and momentum spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maldonado, P.; Sarsa, A.; Buendia, E.; Galvez, F.J.

    2010-01-01

    Three different statistical measures of complexity are explored for the atoms He to Ra. The measures are analysed in both position and momentum spaces. Relativistic effects on the complexity indexes are systematically studied. These effects are discussed in terms of the information content factor and the disorder terms of the complexity indexes. Relativistic and non-relativistic complexity indexes are calculated from Optimized Effective Potential densities.

  9. Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Z H; Liu, Y; Yang, Y

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, an interval method for the dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters is presented. In the presented method, the structural physical and geometric parameters and loads can be considered as interval variables. The structural stiffness matrix, mass matrix and loading vectors are described as the sum of two parts corresponding to the deterministic matrix and the uncertainty of the interval parameters. The interval problem is then transformed into approximate deterministic one. The Laplace transform is used to transform the equations of the dynamic system into linear algebra equations. The Maclaurin series expansion is applied on the modified dynamic equation in order to deal with the linear algebra equations. Numerical examples are studied by the presented interval method for the cases with and without damping. The upper bound and lower bound of the dynamic responses of the examples are compared, and it shows that the presented method is effective.

  10. Inferring about the extinction of a species using certain and uncertain sightings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodikara, Saritha; Demirhan, Haydar; Stone, Lewi

    2018-04-07

    The sighting record of threatened species is often used to infer the possibility of extinction. Most of these sightings have uncertain validity. Solow and Beet(2014) developed two models using a Bayesian approach which allowed for uncertainty in the sighting record by formally incorporating both certain and uncertain sightings, but in different ways. Interestingly, the two methods give completely different conclusions concerning the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. We further examined these two methods to provide a mathematical explanation, and to explore in more depth, as to why the results differed from one another. It was found that the first model was more sensitive to the last uncertain sighting, while the second was more sensitive to the last certain sighting. The difficulties in choosing the appropriate model are discussed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-06-07

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  12. Exponential convergence rate estimation for uncertain delayed neural networks of neutral type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lien, C.-H.; Yu, K.-W.; Lin, Y.-F.; Chung, Y.-J.; Chung, L.-Y.

    2009-01-01

    The global exponential stability for a class of uncertain delayed neural networks (DNNs) of neutral type is investigated in this paper. Delay-dependent and delay-independent criteria are proposed to guarantee the robust stability of DNNs via LMI and Razumikhin-like approaches. For a given delay, the maximal allowable exponential convergence rate will be estimated. Some numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results. The simulation results reveal significant improvement over the recent results.

  13. Bayesian inference on genetic merit under uncertain paternity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tempelman Robert J

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A hierarchical animal model was developed for inference on genetic merit of livestock with uncertain paternity. Fully conditional posterior distributions for fixed and genetic effects, variance components, sire assignments and their probabilities are derived to facilitate a Bayesian inference strategy using MCMC methods. We compared this model to a model based on the Henderson average numerator relationship (ANRM in a simulation study with 10 replicated datasets generated for each of two traits. Trait 1 had a medium heritability (h2 for each of direct and maternal genetic effects whereas Trait 2 had a high h2 attributable only to direct effects. The average posterior probabilities inferred on the true sire were between 1 and 10% larger than the corresponding priors (the inverse of the number of candidate sires in a mating pasture for Trait 1 and between 4 and 13% larger than the corresponding priors for Trait 2. The predicted additive and maternal genetic effects were very similar using both models; however, model choice criteria (Pseudo Bayes Factor and Deviance Information Criterion decisively favored the proposed hierarchical model over the ANRM model.

  14. Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofeng Liu

    Full Text Available Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS. Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

  15. Design of Distributed Engine Control Systems with Uncertain Delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng; Li, Yanxi; Sun, Xu

    Future gas turbine engine control systems will be based on distributed architecture, in which, the sensors and actuators will be connected to the controllers via a communication network. The performance of the distributed engine control (DEC) is dependent on the network performance. This study introduces a distributed control system architecture based on a networked cascade control system (NCCS). Typical turboshaft engine-distributed controllers are designed based on the NCCS framework with a H∞ output feedback under network-induced time delays and uncertain disturbances. The sufficient conditions for robust stability are derived via the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality approach. Both numerical and hardware-in-loop simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

  16. Reinforcement-Learning-Based Robust Controller Design for Continuous-Time Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Subject to Input Constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Derong; Yang, Xiong; Wang, Ding; Wei, Qinglai

    2015-07-01

    The design of stabilizing controller for uncertain nonlinear systems with control constraints is a challenging problem. The constrained-input coupled with the inability to identify accurately the uncertainties motivates the design of stabilizing controller based on reinforcement-learning (RL) methods. In this paper, a novel RL-based robust adaptive control algorithm is developed for a class of continuous-time uncertain nonlinear systems subject to input constraints. The robust control problem is converted to the constrained optimal control problem with appropriately selecting value functions for the nominal system. Distinct from typical action-critic dual networks employed in RL, only one critic neural network (NN) is constructed to derive the approximate optimal control. Meanwhile, unlike initial stabilizing control often indispensable in RL, there is no special requirement imposed on the initial control. By utilizing Lyapunov's direct method, the closed-loop optimal control system and the estimated weights of the critic NN are proved to be uniformly ultimately bounded. In addition, the derived approximate optimal control is verified to guarantee the uncertain nonlinear system to be stable in the sense of uniform ultimate boundedness. Two simulation examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness and applicability of the present approach.

  17. Stability analysis of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhiwani, R J; Patre, B M

    2011-10-01

    In this paper, the determination of stability margin, gain and phase margin aspects of fuzzy parametric uncertain systems are dealt. The stability analysis of uncertain linear systems with coefficients described by fuzzy functions is studied. A complexity reduced technique for determining the stability margin for FPUS is proposed. The method suggested is dependent on the order of the characteristic polynomial. In order to find the stability margin of interval polynomials of order less than 5, it is not always necessary to determine and check all four Kharitonov's polynomials. It has been shown that, for determining stability margin of FPUS of order five, four, and three we require only 3, 2, and 1 Kharitonov's polynomials respectively. Only for sixth and higher order polynomials, a complete set of Kharitonov's polynomials are needed to determine the stability margin. Thus for lower order systems, the calculations are reduced to a large extent. This idea has been extended to determine the stability margin of fuzzy interval polynomials. It is also shown that the gain and phase margin of FPUS can be determined analytically without using graphical techniques. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Effect of Obesity on Arch Index in Young Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sneha Sameer Ganu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Excessive increases in weight bearing forces caused by obesity may negatively affect the lower limbs and feet but minimal research has examined the long-term loading effects of obesity on the musculoskeletal system, particularly in reference to the feet. Objectives: The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of obesity on medial longitudinal arch of foot in young adults. Method: 60 subjects, 30 obese & 30 non obese were assessed for height & weight using standard technique. Radiographic images under static condition were used for calculating the arch index. Result: The arch index of obese subjects was significantly lower than the non obese subjects & there is a negative correlation between the BMI & the arch index. Conclusion: These results suggests that obesity lowers the medial longitudinal arch of foot.

  19. Sliding mode control for uncertain unified chaotic systems with input nonlinearity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiang, T.-Y.; Hung, M.-L.; Yan, J.-J.; Yang, Y.-S.; Chang, J.-F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the stabilization problem for a class of unified chaotic systems subject to uncertainties and input nonlinearity. Using the sliding mode control technique, a robust control law is established which stabilizes the uncertain unified chaotic systems even when the nonlinearity in the actuators is present. A novel adaptive switching surface is introduced to simplify the task of assigning the stability of the closed-loop system in the sliding mode motion. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed sliding mode control design

  20. Practical Stabilization of Uncertain Nonholonomic Mobile Robots Based on Visual Servoing Model with Uncalibrated Camera Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The practical stabilization problem is addressed for a class of uncertain nonholonomic mobile robots with uncalibrated visual parameters. Based on the visual servoing kinematic model, a new switching controller is presented in the presence of parametric uncertainties associated with the camera system. In comparison with existing methods, the new design method is directly used to control the original system without any state or input transformation, which is effective to avoid singularity. Under the proposed control law, it is rigorously proved that all the states of closed-loop system can be stabilized to a prescribed arbitrarily small neighborhood of the zero equilibrium point. Furthermore, this switching control technique can be applied to solve the practical stabilization problem of a kind of mobile robots with uncertain parameters (and angle measurement disturbance which appeared in some literatures such as Morin et al. (1998, Hespanha et al. (1999, Jiang (2000, and Hong et al. (2005. Finally, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed controller design approach.

  1. The Emergency Vehicle Routing Problem with Uncertain Demand under Sustainability Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Qin

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The reasonable utilization of limited resources is critical to realize the sustainable developments. In the initial 72-h crucial rescue period after the disaster, emergency supplies have always been insufficient and the demands in the affected area have always been uncertain. In order to improve timeliness, utilization and sustainability of emergency service, the allocation of the emergency supplies and the emergency vehicle routes should be determined simultaneously. Assuming the uncertain demands follow normal distribution, an optimization model for the emergency vehicle routing, by considering the insufficient supplies and the uncertain demands, is developed. The objective function is applied to minimize the total costs, including the penalty costs induced by more or less supplies than the actual demands at all demand points, as well as the constraints of the time windows and vehicle load capacity taken into account. In more details, a solution method for the model, based on the genetic algorithm, is proposed, which solves the problem in two stages. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and validity of the proposed model and algorithm.

  2. Energy trading and pricing in microgrids with uncertain energy supply

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Kai; Hu, Shubing; Yang, Jie

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profi....... In particular, the uncertainty of the energy supply from the energy provider is considered. Simulation results show that the energy provider can obtain more profit using the proposed decision-making scheme.......This paper studies an energy trading and pricing problem for microgrids with uncertain energy supply. The energy provider with the renewable energy (RE) generation (wind power) determines the energy purchase from the electricity markets and the pricing strategy for consumers to maximize its profit...

  3. Novel density-based and hierarchical density-based clustering algorithms for uncertain data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xianchao; Liu, Han; Zhang, Xiaotong

    2017-09-01

    Uncertain data has posed a great challenge to traditional clustering algorithms. Recently, several algorithms have been proposed for clustering uncertain data, and among them density-based techniques seem promising for handling data uncertainty. However, some issues like losing uncertain information, high time complexity and nonadaptive threshold have not been addressed well in the previous density-based algorithm FDBSCAN and hierarchical density-based algorithm FOPTICS. In this paper, we firstly propose a novel density-based algorithm PDBSCAN, which improves the previous FDBSCAN from the following aspects: (1) it employs a more accurate method to compute the probability that the distance between two uncertain objects is less than or equal to a boundary value, instead of the sampling-based method in FDBSCAN; (2) it introduces new definitions of probability neighborhood, support degree, core object probability, direct reachability probability, thus reducing the complexity and solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for core object judgement) in FDBSCAN. Then, we modify the algorithm PDBSCAN to an improved version (PDBSCANi), by using a better cluster assignment strategy to ensure that every object will be assigned to the most appropriate cluster, thus solving the issue of nonadaptive threshold (for direct density reachability judgement) in FDBSCAN. Furthermore, as PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi have difficulties for clustering uncertain data with non-uniform cluster density, we propose a novel hierarchical density-based algorithm POPTICS by extending the definitions of PDBSCAN, adding new definitions of fuzzy core distance and fuzzy reachability distance, and employing a new clustering framework. POPTICS can reveal the cluster structures of the datasets with different local densities in different regions better than PDBSCAN and PDBSCANi, and it addresses the issues in FOPTICS. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithms over the existing

  4. Investment under Uncertain Climate Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barradale, Merrill Jones

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under uncertain climate policy). In modeling power plant investment decisions, most existing literature uses the expected carbon price (e.g., the price...... actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005–2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal-fired power plant development in the U.S. The data for this case study comes from an extensive online survey of 700 U.S. energy...... design better incentives for investing in low-carbon technologies...

  5. Path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong

    2016-08-20

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where an ensemble of deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty. In an operational setting, much about dynamics, topography, and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain. To address this uncertainty, the flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each of the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the path that minimizes the travel time by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of the sampling strategy and to develop insight into extensions dealing with general circulation ocean models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  6. Under the influence: Effects of adolescent ethanol exposure and anxiety on motivation for uncertain gambling-like cues in male and female rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellberg, Samantha N; Levit, Jeremy D; Robinson, Mike J F

    2018-01-30

    Gambling disorder (GD) frequently co-occurs with alcohol use and anxiety disorders, suggesting possible shared mechanisms. Recent research suggests reward uncertainty may powerfully enhance attraction towards reward cues. Here, we examined the effects of adolescent ethanol exposure, anxiety, and reward uncertainty on cue-triggered motivation. Male and female adolescent rats were given free access to ethanol or control jello for 20days. Following withdrawal, rats underwent autoshaping on a certain (100%-1) or uncertain (50%-1-2-3) reward contingency, followed by single-session conditioned reinforcement and progressive ratio tasks, and 7days of omission training, during which lever pressing resulted in omission of reward. Finally, anxiety levels were quantified on the elevated plus maze. Here, we found that uncertainty narrowed cue attraction by significantly increasing the ratio of sign-tracking to goal-tracking, particularly amongst control jello and high anxiety animals, but not in animals exposed to ethanol during adolescence. In addition, attentional bias towards the lever cue was more persistent under uncertain conditions following omission training. We also found that females consumed more ethanol, and that uncertainty mitigated the anxiolytic effects of ethanol exposure observed in high ethanol intake animals under certainty conditions. Our results further support that reward uncertainty biases attraction towards reward cues, suggesting also that heightened anxiety may enhance vulnerability to the effects of reward uncertainty. Chronic, elevated alcohol consumption may contribute to heightened anxiety levels, while high anxiety may promote the over-attribution of incentive value to reward cues, highlighting possible mechanisms that may drive concurrent anxiety, heavy drinking, and problematic gambling. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Location Model for Distribution Centers for Fulfilling Electronic Orders of Fresh Foods under Uncertain Demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of locating distribution centers for delivering fresh food as a part of electronic commerce is a strategic decision problem for enterprises. This paper establishes a model for locating distribution centers that considers the uncertainty of customer demands for fresh goods in terms of time-sensitiveness and freshness. Based on the methodology of robust optimization in dealing with uncertain problems, this paper optimizes the location model in discrete demand probabilistic scenarios. In this paper, an improved fruit fly optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the distribution center location problem. An example is given to show that the proposed model and algorithm are robust and can effectively handle the complications caused by uncertain demand. The model proposed in this paper proves valuable both theoretically and practically in the selection of locations of distribution centers.

  8. Chaos control and duration time of a class of uncertain chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowong, Samuel; Moukam Kakmeni, F.M.

    2003-01-01

    This Letter presents a robust control scheme for a class of uncertain chaotic systems in the canonical form, with unknown nonlinearities. To cope with the uncertainties, we combine Lyapunov methodology with observer design. The proposed strategy comprises an exponential linearizing feedback and an uncertainty estimator. The developed control scheme allows chaos suppression. The advantage of this method over the existing results is that the control time is explicitly computed. Simulations studies are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the scheme

  9. IP Controller Design for Uncertain Two-Mass Torsional System Using Time-Frequency Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Cui

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of industrial production, drive systems are demanded for larger inertias of motors and load machines, whereas shafts should be lightweight. In this situation, it will excite mechanical vibrations in load side, which is harmful for industrial production when the motor works. Because of the complexity of the flexible shaft, it is often difficult to calculate stiffness coefficient of the flexible shaft. Furthermore, only the velocity of driving side could be measured, whereas the driving torque, the load torque, and the velocity of load side are immeasurable. Therefore, it is inconvenient to design the controller for the uncertain system. In this paper, a low-order IP controller is designed for an uncertain two-mass torsional system based on polynomial method and time-frequency analysis (TFA. IP controller parameters are calculated by inertias of driving side and load side as well as the resonant frequency based on polynomial method. Therein, the resonant frequency is identified using the time-frequency analysis (TFA of the velocity step response of the driving side under the open-loop system state, which can not only avoid harmful persistent start-stop excitation signal of the traditional method, but also obtain high recognition accuracy under the condition of weak vibration signal submerged in noise. The effectiveness of the designed IP controller is verified by groups of experiments. Experimental results show that good performance for vibration suppression is obtained for uncertain two-mass torsional system in a medium-low shaft stiffness condition.

  10. Effects of lesions of the nucleus accumbens core on choice between small certain rewards and large uncertain rewards in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howes Nathan J

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Animals must frequently make choices between alternative courses of action, seeking to maximize the benefit obtained. They must therefore evaluate the magnitude and the likelihood of the available outcomes. Little is known of the neural basis of this process, or what might predispose individuals to be overly conservative or to take risks excessively (avoiding or preferring uncertainty, respectively. The nucleus accumbens core (AcbC is known to contribute to rats' ability to choose large, delayed rewards over small, immediate rewards; AcbC lesions cause impulsive choice and an impairment in learning with delayed reinforcement. However, it is not known how the AcbC contributes to choice involving probabilistic reinforcement, such as between a large, uncertain reward and a small, certain reward. We examined the effects of excitotoxic lesions of the AcbC on probabilistic choice in rats. Results Rats chose between a single food pellet delivered with certainty (p = 1 and four food pellets delivered with varying degrees of uncertainty (p = 1, 0.5, 0.25, 0.125, and 0.0625 in a discrete-trial task, with the large-reinforcer probability decreasing or increasing across the session. Subjects were trained on this task and then received excitotoxic or sham lesions of the AcbC before being retested. After a transient period during which AcbC-lesioned rats exhibited relative indifference between the two alternatives compared to controls, AcbC-lesioned rats came to exhibit risk-averse choice, choosing the large reinforcer less often than controls when it was uncertain, to the extent that they obtained less food as a result. Rats behaved as if indifferent between a single certain pellet and four pellets at p = 0.32 (sham-operated or at p = 0.70 (AcbC-lesioned by the end of testing. When the probabilities did not vary across the session, AcbC-lesioned rats and controls strongly preferred the large reinforcer when it was certain, and strongly

  11. Control uncertain Genesio-Tesi chaotic system: Adaptive sliding mode approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dadras, Sara; Momeni, Hamid Reza

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive sliding mode control (ASMC) technique is introduced in this paper for a chaotic dynamical system (Genesio-Tesi system). Using the sliding mode control technique, a sliding surface is determined and the control law is established. An adaptive sliding mode control law is derived to make the states of the Genesio-Tesi system asymptotically track and regulate the desired state. The designed control scheme can control the uncertain chaotic behaviors to a desired state without oscillating very fast and guarantee the property of asymptotical stability. An illustrative simulation result is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive sliding mode control design.

  12. Uncertain Climate Forecasts From Multimodel Ensembles: When to Use Them and When to Ignore Them

    OpenAIRE

    Jewson, Stephen; Rowlands, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty around multimodel ensemble forecasts of changes in future climate reduces the accuracy of those forecasts. For very uncertain forecasts this effect may mean that the forecasts should not be used. We investigate the use of the well-known Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) to make the decision as to whether a forecast should be used or ignored.

  13. Generalization from uncertain and imprecise data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouchon-Meunier, B.; Marsala, C.; Rifqi, M. [Universite P. et M. Curie, Paris (France); Ramdani, M. [Universite P. et M. Curie, Paris (France)]|[Faculte des Sciences et Techniques, Mohammadia (Morocco)

    1996-12-31

    Most of the knowledge available about a given system is imperfect, which means imprecise, uncertain, qualitative, expressed in natural language with words which are generally vague. Some pieces of knowledge are numerical, obtained by means of measurements with more or less precise devices. They can also be incomplete, with unknown values for some elements of the system. Classification of objects, decision-making according to the description of the system, are well known problems which can be approached by various ways. Methods based on a generalization process appear very efficient when a list of already solved cases is available and sufficiently representative of all the possible cases. In this paper, we focus on the case where fuzzy sets are used to represent imperfect knowledge because of the capability of fuzzy sets to help managing imprecise data, possibly submitted to some non probabilistic uncertainty such as a subjective doubt. Fuzzy sets also present the interesting property to establish an interface between numerical and symbolic data and are interesting to use when both types of data are present. We suppose that the objects of the system are described by means of attributes, the value of which can be imprecise, uncertain or undetermined. Our purpose is to find rules enabling us to attach a class to any object of the system. We focus this study on two generalization methods based on the knowledge of a training set of objects associated with their descriptions and their classes.

  14. When, not if: The inescapability of an uncertain future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowsky, S.; Ballard, T.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainty is an inherent feature of most scientific endeavours, and many political decisions must be made in the presence of scientific uncertainty. In the case of climate change, there is evidence that greater scientific uncertainty increases the risk associated with the impact of climate change. Scientific uncertainty thus provides an impetus for cutting emissions rather than delaying action. In contrast to those normative considerations, uncertainty is frequently cited in political and public discourse as a reason to delay mitigation. We examine ways in which this gap between public and scientific understanding of uncertainty can be bridged. In particular, we sought ways to communicate uncertainty in a way that better calibrates people's risk perceptions with the projected impact of climate change. We report two behavioural experiments in which uncertainty about the future was expressed either as outcome uncertainty or temporal uncertainty. The conventional presentation of uncertainty involves uncertainty about an outcome at a given time—for example, the range of possible sea level rise (say 50cm +/- 20cm) by a certain date. An alternative presentation of the same situation presents a certain outcome ("sea levels will rise by 50cm") but places the uncertainty into the time of arrival ("this may occur as early as 2040 or as late as 2080"). We presented participants with a series of statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification, and a decrease in artic sea ice. In the uncertain magnitude condition, the statements and graphs reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected magnitude and the mean projected time of arrival. In the uncertain time of arrival condition, they reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival and the mean projected magnitude. The results show that when uncertainty was presented as uncertain time of arrival rather than an uncertain

  15. Effect of acetylcysteine on prothrombin index in paracetamol poisoning without hepatocellular injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Lars E; Knudsen, Tore Tveit; Dalhoff, Kim

    2002-01-01

    Acetylcysteine treatment reduces liver damage after paracetamol overdose, but can affect the prothrombin index, which is used to assess the progress of overdose patients. We aimed to assess retrospectively the effect of intravenous acetylcysteine on the prothrombin index in patients with paraceta......Acetylcysteine treatment reduces liver damage after paracetamol overdose, but can affect the prothrombin index, which is used to assess the progress of overdose patients. We aimed to assess retrospectively the effect of intravenous acetylcysteine on the prothrombin index in patients...... with paracetamol poisoning without signs of hepatocellular injury. Prothrombin index had been recorded before, and serially during, acetylcysteine treatment in 87 patients. After initiation of treatment, prothrombin index decreased (mean 0.33, 95% CI 0.29-0.38) in all patients, and was strongly associated...... with the start of acetylcysteine infusion. In patients with uncomplicated paracetamol poisoning, a fall in this index might be misinterpreted as a sign of liver failure, leading to prolonged treatment time....

  16. Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.

    2000-01-01

    Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

  17. Invariant set computation for constrained uncertain discrete-time systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Athanasopoulos, N.; Bitsoris, G.

    2010-01-01

    In this article a novel approach to the determination of polytopic invariant sets for constrained discrete-time linear uncertain systems is presented. First, the problem of stabilizing a prespecified initial condition set in the presence of input and state constraints is addressed. Second, the

  18. Uncertain input data problems and the worst scenario method

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváček, Ivan

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 3 (2007), s. 187-196 ISSN 0862-7940 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA201/04/1503 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : uncertain input data * the worst-case approach * fuzzy sets Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  19. Decisions with Uncertain Consequences-A Total Ordering on Loss-Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rass, Stefan; König, Sandra; Schauer, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action can be modeled by a random variable, then the decision problem boils down to comparing different effects (random variables) by comparing their distribution functions. Although the full space of probability distributions cannot be ordered, a properly restricted subset of distributions can be totally ordered in a practically meaningful way. We call these loss-distributions, since they provide a substitute for the concept of loss-functions in decision theory. This article introduces the theory behind the necessary restrictions and the hereby constructible total ordering on random loss variables, which enables decisions under uncertainty of consequences. Using data obtained from simulations, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our approach.

  20. Neural correlates of uncertain decision making: ERP evidence from the Iowa Gambling Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-fang eCui

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In our daily life, it is very common to make decisions in uncertain situations. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been widely used in laboratory studies because of its good simulation of uncertainty in real life activities. The present study aimed to examine the neural correlates of uncertain decision making with the IGT. Twenty-six university students completed this study. An adapted IGT was administered to them, and the EEG data were recorded. The adapted IGT we used allowed us to analyze the choice evaluation, response selection, and feedback evaluation stages of uncertain decision making within the same paradigm. In the choice evaluation stage, the advantageous decks evoked larger P3 amplitude in the left hemisphere, while the disadvantageous decks evoked larger P3 in the right hemisphere. In the response selection stage, the response of pass (the card was not turned over; the participants neither won nor lost money evoked larger negativity preceding the response compared to that of play (the card was turned over; the participant either won or lost money. In the feedback evaluation stage, feedback-related negativity was only sensitive to the valence (win/loss but not the magnitude (large/small of the outcome, and P3 was sensitive to both the valence and the magnitude of the outcome. These results were consistent with the notion that a positive somatic state was represented in the left hemisphere and a negative somatic state was represented in the right hemisphere. There were also anticipatory ERP effects that guided the participants’ responses and provided evidence for the somatic marker hypothesis with more precise timing.

  1. Robust output synchronization of heterogeneous nonlinear agents in uncertain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xi; Wan, Fuhua; Tu, Mengchuan; Shen, Guojiang

    2017-11-01

    This paper investigates the global robust output synchronization problem for a class of nonlinear multi-agent systems. In the considered setup, the controlled agents are heterogeneous and with both dynamic and parametric uncertainties, the controllers are incapable of exchanging their internal states with the neighbors, and the communication network among agents is defined by an uncertain simple digraph. The problem is pursued via nonlinear output regulation theory and internal model based design. For each agent, the input-driven filter and the internal model compose the controller, and the decentralized dynamic output feedback control law is derived by using backstepping method and the modified dynamic high-gain technique. The theoretical result is applied to output synchronization problem for uncertain network of Lorenz-type agents. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Global exponential stability of uncertain fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model representation is extended to the stability analysis for uncertain Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays using linear matrix inequality (LMI) theory. A novel LMI-based stability criterion is obtained by LMI optimization algorithms to guarantee the exponential stability of uncertain BAM neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by TS fuzzy models. Finally, the proposed stability conditions are demonstrated with numerical examples.

  3. Broadening the study of inductive reasoning: confirmation judgments with uncertain evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastropasqua, Tommaso; Crupi, Vincenzo; Tentori, Katya

    2010-10-01

    Although evidence in real life is often uncertain, the psychology of inductive reasoning has, so far, been confined to certain evidence. The present study extends previous research by investigating whether people properly estimate the impact of uncertain evidence on a given hypothesis. Two experiments are reported, in which the uncertainty of evidence is explicitly (by means of numerical values) versus implicitly (by means of ambiguous pictures) manipulated. The results show that people's judgments are highly correlated with those predicted by normatively sound Bayesian measures of impact. This sensitivity to the degree of evidential uncertainty supports the centrality of inductive reasoning in cognition and opens the path to the study of this issue in more naturalistic settings.

  4. The effect of protein and glycemic index on children's body composition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papadaki, Angeliki; Linardakis, Manolis; Larsen, Thomas Meinert

    2010-01-01

    To investigate the effect of protein and glycemic index (GI) on body composition among European children in the randomized, 6-month dietary intervention DiOGenes (diet, obesity, and genes) family-based study.......To investigate the effect of protein and glycemic index (GI) on body composition among European children in the randomized, 6-month dietary intervention DiOGenes (diet, obesity, and genes) family-based study....

  5. Event-triggered decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant control of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with actuator failures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Yun Ho; Yoo, Sung Jin

    2018-06-01

    This paper investigates the event-triggered decentralized adaptive tracking problem of a class of uncertain interconnected nonlinear systems with unexpected actuator failures. It is assumed that local control signals are transmitted to local actuators with time-varying faults whenever predefined conditions for triggering events are satisfied. Compared with the existing control-input-based event-triggering strategy for adaptive control of uncertain nonlinear systems, the aim of this paper is to propose a tracking-error-based event-triggering strategy in the decentralized adaptive fault-tolerant tracking framework. The proposed approach can relax drastic changes in control inputs caused by actuator faults in the existing triggering strategy. The stability of the proposed event-triggering control system is analyzed in the Lyapunov sense. Finally, simulation comparisons of the proposed and existing approaches are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed theoretical result in the presence of actuator faults. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Data envelopment analysis with uncertain data: An application for Iranian electricity distribution companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadjadi, S.J.; Omrani, H.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model with uncertain data for performance assessment of electricity distribution companies. During the past two decades, DEA has been widely used for benchmarking the electricity distribution companies. However, there is no study among many existing DEA approaches where the uncertainty in data is allowed and, at the same time, the distribution of the random data is permitted to be unknown. The proposed method of this paper develops a new DEA method with the consideration of uncertainty on output parameters. The method is based on the adaptation of recently developed robust optimization approaches proposed by Ben-Tal and Nemirovski [2000. Robust solutions of linear programming problems contaminated with uncertain data. Mathematical Programming 88, 411-421] and Bertsimas et al. [2004. Robust linear optimization under general norms. Operations Research Letters 32, 510-516]. The results are compared with an existing parametric Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) using data from 38 electricity distribution companies in Iran to show the effects of the data uncertainties on the performance of DEA outputs. The results indicate that the robust DEA approach can be a relatively more reliable method for efficiency estimating and ranking strategies

  7. Dynamic IQC-Based Control of Uncertain LFT Systems With Time-Varying State Delay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Chengzhi; Wu, Fen

    2016-12-01

    This paper presents a new exact-memory delay control scheme for a class of uncertain systems with time-varying state delay under the integral quadratic constraint (IQC) framework. The uncertain system is described as a linear fractional transformation model including a state-delayed linear time-invariant (LTI) system and time-varying structured uncertainties. The proposed exact-memory delay controller consists of a linear state-feedback control law and an additional term that captures the delay behavior of the plant. We first explore the delay stability and the L 2 -gain performance using dynamic IQCs incorporated with quadratic Lyapunov functions. Then, the design of exact-memory controllers that guarantee desired L 2 -gain performance is examined. The resulting delay control synthesis conditions are formulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities, which are convex on all design variables including the scaling matrices associated with the IQC multipliers. The IQC-based exact-memory control scheme provides a novel approach for delay control designs via convex optimization, and advances existing control methods in two important ways: 1) better controlled performance and 2) simplified design procedure with less computational cost. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed approach have been demonstrated through numerical studies.

  8. Valuation of American Call Option Considering Uncertain Volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváček, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 2 (2010), s. 211-221 ISSN 2070-0733 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA100190803 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : American options * parabolic variational inequality * uncertain parameter Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.510, year: 2010 http://www.global-sci.org/aamm/readabs.php?vol=2&no=2&doc=211&year=2010&ppage=221

  9. Simplex sliding mode control for nonlinear uncertain systems via chaos optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Zhao; Shieh, Leang-San; Chen, Guanrong; Coleman, Norman P.

    2005-01-01

    As an emerging effective approach to nonlinear robust control, simplex sliding mode control demonstrates some attractive features not possessed by the conventional sliding mode control method, from both theoretical and practical points of view. However, no systematic approach is currently available for computing the simplex control vectors in nonlinear sliding mode control. In this paper, chaos-based optimization is exploited so as to develop a systematic approach to seeking the simplex control vectors; particularly, the flexibility of simplex control is enhanced by making the simplex control vectors dependent on the Euclidean norm of the sliding vector rather than being constant, which result in both reduction of the chattering and speedup of the convergence. Computer simulation on a nonlinear uncertain system is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method

  10. Decisions with Uncertain Consequences-A Total Ordering on Loss-Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Rass

    Full Text Available Decisions are often based on imprecise, uncertain or vague information. Likewise, the consequences of an action are often equally unpredictable, thus putting the decision maker into a twofold jeopardy. Assuming that the effects of an action can be modeled by a random variable, then the decision problem boils down to comparing different effects (random variables by comparing their distribution functions. Although the full space of probability distributions cannot be ordered, a properly restricted subset of distributions can be totally ordered in a practically meaningful way. We call these loss-distributions, since they provide a substitute for the concept of loss-functions in decision theory. This article introduces the theory behind the necessary restrictions and the hereby constructible total ordering on random loss variables, which enables decisions under uncertainty of consequences. Using data obtained from simulations, we demonstrate the practical applicability of our approach.

  11. The Effect of Consumer Expectation Index, Economic Condition Index and Crude Oil Price on Indonesian Government Bond Yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benny Budiawan Tjandrasa

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Governments sell bonds to finance their budget. The investors willing to buy government bonds because of the yield they will get, but on the other hand if government bond yields is  too high it would burden the state in paying the interest due. Various studies have been done to find the variables that affect government bond yield significantly, such as exchange rate, inflation rate, interest rate, and oil price. This study found two more variables namely consumer expectations index and the economic conditions index to complement the variables that have been discovered. Those two variables are used as a proxy of economic stability of a country, the increase of those variables represent the increase of economic stability and will reduce the level of risk and lowering the yield that investors demand. This research use descriptive method and explanatory study with secondary data using multivariate regression equation model. The results shown consumer expectation index and economic condition index have significant effect on Indonesian Government Bond yield. To keep consumer expectation index and economic condition index increase government should give a positive signal and a sense of security to investor.

  12. The effect of financial ratios on systematic risk index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Faez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between financial ratios and indicator of systemic risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The study selects 73 manufacturing companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange market over the period 2003-2010. The study first calculates the independent variables in the form of financial ratios and then the ratios affecting the systematic risk index are extracted using entropy method. The output of this stage is the introduction of five influential financial indicators as the independent variables of the study. Using t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient the rate of independent variables effect on the systematic risk index is evaluated and finally, using stepwise regression method, the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable is examined. According to results of our survey, the correlation coefficient of such indices as “the ratio of stock price to the profit of each share”, “Current ratio”, “each share profit ratio” and “the stockholders rights return ratio” have respectively the highest correlation with the systematic risk index.

  13. Symplectic Synchronization of Lorenz-Stenflo System with Uncertain Chaotic Parameters via Adaptive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hsiung Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A new symplectic chaos synchronization of chaotic systems with uncertain chaotic parameters is studied. The traditional chaos synchronizations are special cases of the symplectic chaos synchronization. A sufficient condition is given for the asymptotical stability of the null solution of error dynamics and a parameter difference. The symplectic chaos synchronization with uncertain chaotic parameters may be applied to the design of secure communication systems. Finally, numerical results are studied for symplectic chaos synchronized from two identical Lorenz-Stenflo systems in three different cases.

  14. Feature-Based versus Category-Based Induction with Uncertain Categories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Oren; Hayes, Brett K.; Newell, Ben R.

    2012-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that when feature inferences have to be made about an instance whose category membership is uncertain, feature-based inductive reasoning is used to the exclusion of category-based induction. These results contrast with the observation that people can and do use category-based induction when category membership is…

  15. Can the Air Pollution Index be used to communicate the health risks of air pollution?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Li; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Guo, Yuming; Ou, Chun-Quan; Chen, Ping-Yan

    2015-01-01

    The validity of using the Air Pollution Index (API) to assess health impacts of air pollution and potential modification by individual characteristics on air pollution effects remain uncertain. We applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess associations of daily API, specific pollution indices for PM 10 , SO 2 , NO 2 and the weighted combined API (APIw) with mortality during 2003–2011 in Guangzhou, China. An increase of 10 in API was associated with a 0.88% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50, 1.27%) increase of non-accidental mortality at lag 0–2 days. Harvesting effects appeared after 2 days’ exposure. The effect estimate of API over lag 0–15 days was statistically significant and similar with those of pollutant-specific indices and APIw. Stronger associations between API and mortality were observed in the elderly, females and residents with low educational attainment. In conclusion, the API can be used to communicate health risks of air pollution. - Highlights: • The cumulative effects of API on mortality over lag 0–15 days remained significant. • The indices for three specific pollutants had similar associations with mortality. • The effects of API were modified by age, gender and educational attainment. • Our findings can help to communicate health risks of air pollution to the public. - The Air Pollution Index communicates health risks of air pollution

  16. Parametric optimal control of uncertain systems under an optimistic value criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bo; Zhu, Yuanguo

    2018-01-01

    It is well known that the optimal control of a linear quadratic model is characterized by the solution of a Riccati differential equation. In many cases, the corresponding Riccati differential equation cannot be solved exactly such that the optimal feedback control may be a complex time-oriented function. In this article, a parametric optimal control problem of an uncertain linear quadratic model under an optimistic value criterion is considered for simplifying the expression of optimal control. Based on the equation of optimality for the uncertain optimal control problem, an approximation method is presented to solve it. As an application, a two-spool turbofan engine optimal control problem is given to show the utility of the proposed model and the efficiency of the presented approximation method.

  17. Can the Air Pollution Index be used to communicate the health risks of air pollution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Lin, Guo-Zhen; Liu, Hua-Zhang; Guo, Yuming; Ou, Chun-Quan; Chen, Ping-Yan

    2015-10-01

    The validity of using the Air Pollution Index (API) to assess health impacts of air pollution and potential modification by individual characteristics on air pollution effects remain uncertain. We applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) to assess associations of daily API, specific pollution indices for PM10, SO2, NO2 and the weighted combined API (APIw) with mortality during 2003-2011 in Guangzhou, China. An increase of 10 in API was associated with a 0.88% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50, 1.27%) increase of non-accidental mortality at lag 0-2 days. Harvesting effects appeared after 2 days' exposure. The effect estimate of API over lag 0-15 days was statistically significant and similar with those of pollutant-specific indices and APIw. Stronger associations between API and mortality were observed in the elderly, females and residents with low educational attainment. In conclusion, the API can be used to communicate health risks of air pollution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Multiple Attribute Decision Making Based on Cross-Evaluation with Uncertain Decision Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Ding

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Multiple attribute decision making (MADM problem is one of the most common and popular research fields in the theory of decision science. A variety of methods have been proposed to deal with such problems. Nevertheless, many of them assumed that attribute weights are determined by different types of additional preference information which will result in subjective decision making. In order to solve such problems, in this paper, we propose a novel MADM approach based on cross-evaluation with uncertain parameters. Specifically, the proposed approach assumes that all attribute weights are uncertain. It can overcome the drawback in prior research that the alternatives’ ranking may be determined by a single attribute with an overestimated weight. In addition, the proposed method can also balance the mean and deviation of each alternative’s cross-evaluation score to guarantee the stability of evaluation. Then, this method is extended to a more generalized situation where the attribute values are also uncertain. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the proposed method by revisiting two reported studies and by a case study on the selection of community service companies in the city of Hefei in China.

  19. Distributed Robustness Analysis of Interconnected Uncertain Systems Using Chordal Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pakazad, Sina Khoshfetrat; Hansson, Anders; Andersen, Martin Skovgaard

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale interconnected uncertain systems commonly have large state and uncertainty dimensions. Aside from the heavy computational cost of performing robust stability analysis in a centralized manner, privacy requirements in the network can also introduce further issues. In this paper, we util...

  20. A guide for functional analysis of BRCA1 variants of uncertain significance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Millot, Gaël A; Carvalho, Marcelo A; Caputo, Sandrine M

    2012-01-01

    of these variants, the effect on protein function is unknown making it difficult to infer the consequences on risks of breast and ovarian cancers. Thus, many individuals undergoing genetic testing for BRCA1 mutations receive test results reporting a variant of uncertain clinical significance (VUS), leading...... to issues in risk assessment, counseling, and preventive care. Here, we describe functional assays for BRCA1 to directly or indirectly assess the impact of a variant on protein conformation or function and how these results can be used to complement genetic data to classify a VUS as to its clinical...

  1. Application of dynamic uncertain causality graph in spacecraft fault diagnosis: Logic cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Quanying; Zhang, Qin; Liu, Peng; Yang, Ping; Zhu, Ma; Wang, Xiaochen

    2017-04-01

    Intelligent diagnosis system are applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft. Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) is a new probability graphic model with many advantages. In the knowledge expression of spacecraft fault diagnosis, feedback among variables is frequently encountered, which may cause directed cyclic graphs (DCGs). Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) such as bayesian network (BN) have been widely applied in uncertain causality representation and probabilistic reasoning, but BN does not allow DCGs. In this paper, DUGG is applied to fault diagnosis in spacecraft: introducing the inference algorithm for the DUCG to deal with feedback. Now, DUCG has been tested in 16 typical faults with 100% diagnosis accuracy.

  2. Transitioning nuclear fuel cycles with uncertain fast reactor costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phathanapirom, U.B., E-mail: bphathanapirom@utexas.edu; Schneider, E.A.

    2016-06-15

    This paper applies a novel decision making methodology to a case study involving choices leading to the transition from the current once-through light water reactor fuel cycle to one relying on continuous recycle of plutonium and minor actinides in fast reactors in the face of uncertain fast reactor capital costs. Unique to this work is a multi-stage treatment of a range of plausible trajectories for the evolution of fast reactor capital costs over time, characterized by first-of-a-kind penalties as well as time- and unit-based learning. The methodology explicitly incorporates uncertainties in key parameters into the decision-making process by constructing a stochastic model and embedding uncertainties as bifurcations in the decision tree. “Hedging” strategies are found by applying a choice criterion to select courses of action which mitigate “regrets”. These regrets are calculated by evaluating the performance of all possible transition strategies for every feasible outcome of the uncertain parameter. The hedging strategies are those that preserve the most flexibility for adjusting the fuel cycle strategy in response to new information as uncertainties are resolved.

  3. Transitioning nuclear fuel cycles with uncertain fast reactor costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phathanapirom, U.B.; Schneider, E.A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper applies a novel decision making methodology to a case study involving choices leading to the transition from the current once-through light water reactor fuel cycle to one relying on continuous recycle of plutonium and minor actinides in fast reactors in the face of uncertain fast reactor capital costs. Unique to this work is a multi-stage treatment of a range of plausible trajectories for the evolution of fast reactor capital costs over time, characterized by first-of-a-kind penalties as well as time- and unit-based learning. The methodology explicitly incorporates uncertainties in key parameters into the decision-making process by constructing a stochastic model and embedding uncertainties as bifurcations in the decision tree. “Hedging” strategies are found by applying a choice criterion to select courses of action which mitigate “regrets”. These regrets are calculated by evaluating the performance of all possible transition strategies for every feasible outcome of the uncertain parameter. The hedging strategies are those that preserve the most flexibility for adjusting the fuel cycle strategy in response to new information as uncertainties are resolved.

  4. CKD of Uncertain Etiology: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunyera, Joseph; Mohottige, Dinushika; Von Isenburg, Megan; Jeuland, Marc; Patel, Uptal D; Stanifer, John W

    2016-03-07

    Epidemics of CKD of uncertain etiology (CKDu) are emerging around the world. Highlighting common risk factors for CKD of uncertain etiology across various regions and populations may be important for health policy and public health responses. We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of Science databases to identify published studies on CKDu. The search was generated in January of 2015; no language or date limits were used. We used a vote-counting method to evaluate exposures across all studies. We identified 1607 articles, of which 26 met inclusion criteria. Eighteen (69%) were conducted in known CKDu-endemic countries: Sri Lanka (38%), Nicaragua (19%), and El Salvador (12%). The other studies were from India, Japan, Australia, Mexico, Sweden, Tunisia, Tanzania, and the United States. Heavy metals, heat stress, and dietary exposures were reported across all geographic regions. In south Asia, family history, agrochemical use, and heavy metal exposures were reported most frequently, whereas altitude and temperature were reported only in studies from Central America. Across all regions, CKDu was most frequently associated with a family history of CKDu, agricultural occupation, men, middle age, snake bite, and heavy metal exposure. Studies examining etiologies of CKDu have reported many exposures that are heterogeneous and vary by region. To identify etiologies of CKDu, designing consistent and comparative multisite studies across high-risk populations may help elucidate the importance of region-specific versus global risk factors. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  5. Vessels Route Planning Problem with Uncertain Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Neumann

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to find a solution for route planning in a transport networks, where the costs of tracks, factor of safety and travel time are ambiguous. This approach is based on the Dempster-Shafer theory and well known Dijkstra's algorithm. In this approach important are the influencing factors of the mentioned coefficients using uncertain possibilities presented by probability intervals. Based on these intervals the quality intervals of each route can be determined. Applied decision rules can be described by the end user.

  6. Method of determining effects of heat-induced irregular refractive index on an optical system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xifa; Li, Lin; Huang, Yifan

    2015-09-01

    The effects of an irregular refractive index on optical performance are examined. A method was developed to express a lens's irregular refractive index distribution. An optical system and its mountings were modeled by a thermomechanical finite element (FE) program in the predicted operating temperature range, -45°C-50°C. FE outputs were elaborated using a MATLAB optimization routine; a nonlinear least squares algorithm was adopted to determine which gradient equation best fit each lens's refractive index distribution. The obtained gradient data were imported into Zemax for sequential ray-tracing analysis. The root mean square spot diameter, modulation transfer function, and diffraction ensquared energy were computed for an optical system under an irregular refractive index and under thermoelastic deformation. These properties are greatly reduced by the irregular refractive index effect, which is one-third to five-sevenths the size of the thermoelastic deformation effect. Thus, thermal analyses of optical systems should consider not only thermoelastic deformation but also refractive index irregularities caused by inhomogeneous temperature.

  7. Adaptive controller design for modified projective synchronization of Genesio-Tesi chaotic system with uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Ju H.

    2007-01-01

    The paper addresses control problem for the modified projective synchronization of the Genesio-Tesi chaotic systems with three uncertain parameters. An adaptive control law is derived to make the states of two identical Genesio-Tesi systems asymptotically synchronized up to specific ratios. The stability analysis in the paper is proved using a well-known Lyapunov stability theory. A numerical simulation is presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed chaos synchronization scheme

  8. Uncertain deduction and conditional reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Jonathan St B T; Thompson, Valerie A; Over, David E

    2015-01-01

    There has been a paradigm shift in the psychology of deductive reasoning. Many researchers no longer think it is appropriate to ask people to assume premises and decide what necessarily follows, with the results evaluated by binary extensional logic. Most every day and scientific inference is made from more or less confidently held beliefs and not assumptions, and the relevant normative standard is Bayesian probability theory. We argue that the study of "uncertain deduction" should directly ask people to assign probabilities to both premises and conclusions, and report an experiment using this method. We assess this reasoning by two Bayesian metrics: probabilistic validity and coherence according to probability theory. On both measures, participants perform above chance in conditional reasoning, but they do much better when statements are grouped as inferences, rather than evaluated in separate tasks.

  9. Extreme-Scale Stochastic Particle Tracing for Uncertain Unsteady Flow Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Hanqi; He, Wenbin; Seo, Sangmin; Shen, Han-Wei; Peterka, Tom

    2016-11-13

    We present an efficient and scalable solution to estimate uncertain transport behaviors using stochastic flow maps (SFM,) for visualizing and analyzing uncertain unsteady flows. SFM computation is extremely expensive because it requires many Monte Carlo runs to trace densely seeded particles in the flow. We alleviate the computational cost by decoupling the time dependencies in SFMs so that we can process adjacent time steps independently and then compose them together for longer time periods. Adaptive refinement is also used to reduce the number of runs for each location. We then parallelize over tasks—packets of particles in our design—to achieve high efficiency in MPI/thread hybrid programming. Such a task model also enables CPU/GPU coprocessing. We show the scalability on two supercomputers, Mira (up to 1M Blue Gene/Q cores) and Titan (up to 128K Opteron cores and 8K GPUs), that can trace billions of particles in seconds.

  10. Mean-Variance portfolio optimization when each asset has individual uncertain exit-time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Keykhaei

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The standard Markowitz Mean-Variance optimization model is a single-period portfolio selection approach where the exit-time (or the time-horizon is deterministic. ‎In this paper we study the Mean-Variance portfolio selection problem ‎with ‎uncertain ‎exit-time ‎when ‎each ‎has ‎individual uncertain ‎xit-time‎, ‎which generalizes the Markowitz's model‎. ‎‎‎‎‎‎We provide some conditions under which the optimal portfolio of the generalized problem is independent of the exit-times distributions. Also, ‎‎it is shown that under some general circumstances, the sets of optimal portfolios‎ ‎in the generalized model and the standard model are the same‎.

  11. Robust Fuzzy Control for Fractional-Order Uncertain Hydroturbine Regulating System with Random Disturbances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fengjiao Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The robust fuzzy control for fractional-order hydroturbine regulating system is studied in this paper. First, the more practical fractional-order hydroturbine regulating system with uncertain parameters and random disturbances is presented. Then, on the basis of interval matrix theory and fractional-order stability theorem, a fuzzy control method is proposed for fractional-order hydroturbine regulating system, and the stability condition is expressed as a group of linear matrix inequalities. Furthermore, the proposed method has good robustness which can process external random disturbances and uncertain parameters. Finally, the validity and superiority are proved by the numerical simulations.

  12. Fault tolerant control for uncertain systems with parametric faults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2006-01-01

    A fault tolerant control (FTC) architecture based on active fault diagnosis (AFD) and the YJBK (Youla, Jarb, Bongiorno and Kucera)parameterization is applied in this paper. Based on the FTC architecture, fault tolerant control of uncertain systems with slowly varying parametric faults...... is investigated. Conditions are given for closed-loop stability in case of false alarms or missing fault detection/isolation....

  13. Robust DEA under discrete uncertain data: a case study of Iranian electricity distribution companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hafezalkotob, Ashkan; Haji-Sami, Elham; Omrani, Hashem

    2015-06-01

    Crisp input and output data are fundamentally indispensable in traditional data envelopment analysis (DEA). However, the real-world problems often deal with imprecise or ambiguous data. In this paper, we propose a novel robust data envelopment model (RDEA) to investigate the efficiencies of decision-making units (DMU) when there are discrete uncertain input and output data. The method is based upon the discrete robust optimization approaches proposed by Mulvey et al. (1995) that utilizes probable scenarios to capture the effect of ambiguous data in the case study. Our primary concern in this research is evaluating electricity distribution companies under uncertainty about input/output data. To illustrate the ability of proposed model, a numerical example of 38 Iranian electricity distribution companies is investigated. There are a large amount ambiguous data about these companies. Some electricity distribution companies may not report clear and real statistics to the government. Thus, it is needed to utilize a prominent approach to deal with this uncertainty. The results reveal that the RDEA model is suitable and reliable for target setting based on decision makers (DM's) preferences when there are uncertain input/output data.

  14. Adaptive Observer-Based Fault-Tolerant Control Design for Uncertain Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huaming Qian

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the design of the robust fault-tolerant control (FTC system based on adaptive observer for uncertain linear time invariant (LTI systems. In order to improve robustness, rapidity, and accuracy of traditional fault estimation algorithm, an adaptive fault estimation algorithm (AFEA using an augmented observer is presented. By utilizing a new fault estimator model, an improved AFEA based on linear matrix inequality (LMI technique is proposed to increase the performance. Furthermore, an observer-based state feedback fault-tolerant control strategy is designed, which guarantees the stability and performance of the faulty system. Moreover, the adaptive observer and the fault-tolerant controller are designed separately, whose performance can be considered, respectively. Finally, simulation results of an aircraft application are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed design methods.

  15. Valuing Interest Rate Swap Contracts in Uncertain Financial Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Xiao

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Swap is a financial contract between two counterparties who agree to exchange one cash flow stream for another, according to some predetermined rules. When the cash flows are fixed rate interest and floating rate interest, the swap is called an interest rate swap. This paper investigates two valuation models of the interest rate swap contracts in the uncertain financial market. The new models are based on belief degrees, and require relatively less historical data compared to the traditional probability models. The first valuation model is designed for a mean-reversion term structure, while the second is designed for a term structure with hump effect. Explicit solutions are developed by using the Yao–Chen formula. Moreover, a numerical method is designed to calculate the value of the interest rate swap alternatively. Finally, two examples are given to show their applications and comparisons.

  16. 75 FR 54802 - Requirement of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-09

    ... return. Corporations that prepare financial statements are required by generally accepted accounting principles to identify and quantify all uncertain tax positions as described in Financial Accounting..., including International Financial Reporting Standards and country-specific generally accepted accounting...

  17. Robust master-slave synchronization for general uncertain delayed dynamical model based on adaptive control scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianbo; Zhou, Wuneng; Zhao, Shouwei; Yu, Weiqin

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, the robust exponential synchronization problem for a class of uncertain delayed master-slave dynamical system is investigated by using the adaptive control method. Different from some existing master-slave models, the considered master-slave system includes bounded unmodeled dynamics. In order to compensate the effect of unmodeled dynamics and effectively achieve synchronization, a novel adaptive controller with simple updated laws is proposed. Moreover, the results are given in terms of LMIs, which can be easily solved by LMI Toolbox in Matlab. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the method. Copyright © 2013 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Index method for analyzing cost effectiveness of drilling rigs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batura, N P; Bocharov, V V

    1978-01-01

    The method for a complete analysis of the factors determining cost effectiveness of a drilling rig fleet is examined. The system of calculating production indexes from statistical reports is relatively simple and is not difficult to use for production organizations. The analytical results may be used to develop actual measures used to increase cost effectiveness of drilling operations.

  19. New composite index based on midlatency auditory evoked potential and electroencephalographic parameters to optimize correlation with propofol effect site concentration - Comparison with bispectral index and solitary used fast extracting auditory evoked potential index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vereecke, HEM; Vasquez, PM; Jensen, EW; Thas, O; Vandenbroecke, R; Mortier, EP; Struys, MMRF

    Background: This study investigates the accuracy of a composite index, the A-Line (R) auditory evoked potentials index version 1.6 (AAI(1.6); Danmeter A/S, Odense, Denmark), as a measure of cerebral anesthetic drug effect in a model for predicting a calculated effect site concentration of propofol

  20. Structure identification of an uncertain network coupled with complex-variable chaotic systems via adaptive impulsive control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Dan-Feng; Wu Zhao-Yan; Ye Qing-Ling

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, structure identification of an uncertain network coupled with complex-variable chaotic systems is investigated. Both the topological structure and the system parameters can be unknown and need to be identified. Based on impulsive stability theory and the Lyapunov function method, an impulsive control scheme combined with an adaptive strategy is adopted to design effective and universal network estimators. The restriction on the impulsive interval is relaxed by adopting an adaptive strategy. Further, the proposed method can monitor the online switching topology effectively. Several numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. (general)

  1. Delay-Dependent Stability Criteria of Uncertain Periodic Switched Recurrent Neural Networks with Time-Varying Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Yin

    2011-01-01

    uncertain periodic switched recurrent neural networks with time-varying delays. When uncertain discrete-time recurrent neural network is a periodic system, it is expressed as switched neural network for the finite switching state. Based on the switched quadratic Lyapunov functional approach (SQLF and free-weighting matrix approach (FWM, some linear matrix inequality criteria are found to guarantee the delay-dependent asymptotical stability of these systems. Two examples illustrate the exactness of the proposed criteria.

  2. ON A NUMERICAL ALGORITHM FOR UNCERTAIN SYSTEM ∫ Φ ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Science World Journal Vol 7 (No 1) 2012 www.scienceworldjournal.org. ISSN 1597-6343. On a Numerical Algorithm for Uncertain System. Newton's Algorithm. Step 1 Calculate. )(),().(k k k. xAxgxF. Step 2. Check if ε. <. )(k xg for a predetermined ,ε if so stop, else. Step3. Set k k. PxA. )( = )(k xg. -. Step4. Set k k k. Px x. +. = +1.

  3. Numerical Solution of Uncertain Beam Equations Using Double Parametric Form of Fuzzy Numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smita Tapaswini

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Present paper proposes a new technique to solve uncertain beam equation using double parametric form of fuzzy numbers. Uncertainties appearing in the initial conditions are taken in terms of triangular fuzzy number. Using the single parametric form, the fuzzy beam equation is converted first to an interval-based fuzzy differential equation. Next, this differential equation is transformed to crisp form by applying double parametric form of fuzzy number. Finally, the same is solved by homotopy perturbation method (HPM to obtain the uncertain responses subject to unit step and impulse loads. Obtained results are depicted in terms of plots to show the efficiency and powerfulness of the methodology.

  4. Robust stability for uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2008-07-01

    In this Letter, by utilizing the Lyapunov functional and combining with the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we analyze the global asymptotic stability of uncertain stochastic fuzzy Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models. A new class of uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays has been studied and sufficient conditions have been derived to obtain conservative result in stochastic settings. The developed results are more general than those reported in the earlier literatures. In addition, the numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the result using LMI toolbox in MATLAB.

  5. Robust stability for uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syed Ali, M.; Balasubramaniam, P.

    2008-01-01

    In this Letter, by utilizing the Lyapunov functional and combining with the linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we analyze the global asymptotic stability of uncertain stochastic fuzzy Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks with time-varying delays which are represented by the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models. A new class of uncertain stochastic fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays has been studied and sufficient conditions have been derived to obtain conservative result in stochastic settings. The developed results are more general than those reported in the earlier literatures. In addition, the numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the result using LMI toolbox in MATLAB

  6. Investigating the Effective Index on Customers Choice in Buying Furniture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Rangavar

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The competitive world today, with increasing customers satisfaction and expanding the definition of hosting and its direct connection with quality of products is essential. Thus not only the current customers stay fixed but also it increases. The purpose of this study was to investigate and ranking the crucial indicators that influence the choice of furniture by customers. Because of this, the studied indexes are classified in 6 group: quality, beauty, design, creating a suitable atmosphere for selling the goods, selling conditions and advertising. Population consisted of three major commercial areas in Tehran (Delawaran, Hassan Abad and Yaftabad. Statistical sample consisted a number of 100 people. A questionnaire was developed to gather data. Reliability of the questionnaires has been approved through Cronbach's Alpha coefficient (0.921. Investigation of effective indexes was done by chi-square method and in order to final ranking the indexes, friedman analyses have been used. The results obtained of ranking showed the chief factor in customers choice is under category of beauty due to this elegancy role in customers point of view. After elegancy, according to the classified elements studied in this research, raw material in making furniture, wood production’s price, ergonomy, customers satisfaction for his last purchase and immediate delivery, respectively, are the most important effective index in buying furniture by consumer.

  7. Optimal core acquisition and remanufacturing policies under uncertain core quality fractions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, R.H.; Flapper, S.D.P.

    2011-01-01

    Cores acquired by a remanufacturer are typically highly variable in quality. Even if the expected fractions of the various quality levels are known, then the exact fractions when acquiring cores are still uncertain. Our model incorporates this uncertainty in determining optimal acquisition decisions

  8. Performance-Driven Robust Identification and Control of Uncertain Dynamical Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basar, Tamer

    2001-10-29

    The grant DEFG02-97ER13939 from the Department of Energy has supported our research program on robust identification and control of uncertain dynamical systems, initially for the three-year period June 15, 1997-June 14, 2000, which was then extended on a no-cost basis for another year until June 14, 2001. This final report provides an overview of our research conducted during this period, along with a complete list of publications supported by the Grant. Within the scope of this project, we have studied fundamental issues that arise in modeling, identification, filtering, control, stabilization, control-based model reduction, decomposition and aggregation, and optimization of uncertain systems. The mathematical framework we have worked in has allowed the system dynamics to be only partially known (with the uncertainties being of both parametric or structural nature), and further the dynamics to be perturbed by unknown dynamic disturbances. Our research over these four years has generated a substantial body of new knowledge, and has led to new major developments in theory, applications, and computational algorithms. These have all been documented in various journal articles and book chapters, and have been presented at leading conferences, as to be described. A brief description of the results we have obtained within the scope of this project can be found in Section 3. To set the stage for the material of that section, we first provide in the next section (Section 2) a brief description of the issues that arise in the control of uncertain systems, and introduce several criteria under which optimality will lead to robustness and stability. Section 4 contains a list of references cited in these two sections. A list of our publications supported by the DOE Grant (covering the period June 15, 1997-June 14, 2001) comprises Section 5 of the report.

  9. Impact of uncertain reference-frame motions in plate kinematic reconstructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iaffaldano, Giampiero; Stein, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Geoscientists infer past plate motions, which serve as fundamental constraints for a range of studies, from observations of magnetic isochrons as well as hotspots tracks on the ocean floor and, for stages older than the Cretaceous, from paleomagnetic data. These observations effectively represent...... time-integrals of past plate motions but, because they are made at present, yield plate kinematics naturally tied to a present-day reference-frame, which may be another plate or a hotspots system. These kinematics are therefore different than those occurred at the time when the rocks acquired...... – in a temporal sense – and prone to noise. This limitation is commonly perceived to hamper the correction of plate kinematic reconstructions for RFAMs, but the extent to which this may be the case has not been explored. Here we assess the impact of uncertain RFAMs on kinematic reconstructions using synthetic...

  10. Effect of dobutamine on a Doppler echocardiographic index of combined systolic and diastolic performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harada, K; Tamura, M; Toyono, M; Yasuoka, K

    2002-01-01

    Dobutamine stress echocardiography has become accepted in the evaluation of cardiac functional reserve. Although the Doppler-derived index of combined systolic/diastolic myocardial performance (Tei index) has been reported to be easily obtainable and useful for predicting left ventricular performance, the effect of dobutamine on the Tei index has not been determined in children. To assess the effect of dobutamine on the Tei index, 8 patients who had undergone surgery for ventricular septal defect and 7 patients who had a history of Kawasaki disease were examined. Echocardiographic recordings were obtained before and after dobutamine infusion (5 microg/kg per minute). Variables measured were transmitral flow velocities (E, A, E/A), rate-corrected mean velocity of circumferential fiber shortening (rate-corrected Vcf), and IMP. We measured isovolumic contraction time (ICT), isovolumic relaxation time (IRT), and ejection time (ET) and then calculated the Tei index using the following formula: Tei index = (ICT + IRT)/ET. Dobutamine infusion increased rate-corrected Vcf (29%, p ICT, and IRT were found to decrease during dobutamine infusion. The magnitude of the change in the ICT (-21%, p ICT/ET (-21%, p effects of inotropic stimilation on global left ventricular function.

  11. Robust stability of uncertain Markovian jumping Cohen-Grossberg neural networks with mixed time-varying delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng Li; Yang Huizhong

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the robust stability of a class of uncertain Markovian jumping Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (UMJCGNNs) with mixed time-varying delays. The parameter uncertainties are norm-bounded and the mixed time-varying delays comprise discrete and distributed time delays. Based on the Lyapunov stability theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) technique, some robust stability conditions guaranteeing the global robust convergence of the equilibrium point are derived. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  12. Flexible Procurement of Services with Uncertain Durations using Redundancy

    OpenAIRE

    Stein, S; Gerding, E; Rogers, A; Larson, K; Jennings, NR

    2009-01-01

    Emerging service-oriented technologies allow software agents to automatically procure distributed services to complete complex tasks. However, in many application scenarios, service providers demand financial remuneration, execution times are uncertain and consumers have deadlines for their tasks. In this paper, we address these issues by developing a novel approach that dynamically procures multiple, redundant services over time, in order to ensure success by the deadline. Specifically, we f...

  13. Adaptive variable structure control for uncertain chaotic systems containing dead-zone nonlinearity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, J.-J.; Shyu, K.-K.; Lin, J.-S.

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a practical tracking problem for a class of uncertain chaotic systems with dead-zone nonlinearity in the input function. Based on the Lyapunov stability theorem and Barbalat lemma, an adaptive variable structure controller (AVSC) is proposed to ensure the occurrence of the sliding mode even though the control input contains a dead-zone. Also it is worthy of note that the proposed AVSC involves no information of the upper bound of uncertainty. Thus, the limitation of knowing the bound of uncertainty in advance is certainly released. Furthermore, in the sliding mode, the investigated uncertain chaotic system remains insensitive to the uncertainty, and behaves like a linear system. Finally, a well-known Duffing-Holmes chaotic system is used to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed AVSC

  14. Magnetic resonance imaging features of extremity sarcomas of uncertain differentiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stacy, G.S.; Nair, L.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this review is to illustrate the pertinent clinical and imaging features of extremity sarcomas of uncertain differentiation, including synovial sarcoma, epithelioid sarcoma, clear-cell sarcoma, and alveolar soft part sarcoma. These tumours should be considered in the differential diagnosis when a soft-tissue mass is encountered in the extremity of an adolescent or young adult

  15. Alignment Condition-Based Robust Adaptive Iterative Learning Control of Uncertain Robot System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guofeng Tong

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an adaptive iterative learning control strategy integrated with saturation-based robust control for uncertain robot system in presence of modelling uncertainties, unknown parameter, and external disturbance under alignment condition. An important merit is that it achieves adaptive switching of gain matrix both in conventional PD-type feedforward control and robust adaptive control in the iteration domain simultaneously. The analysis of convergence of proposed control law is based on Lyapunov's direct method under alignment initial condition. Simulation results demonstrate the faster learning rate and better robust performance with proposed algorithm by comparing with other existing robust controllers. The actual experiment on three-DOF robot manipulator shows its better practical effectiveness.

  16. Robust control of uncertain dynamic systems a linear state space approach

    CERN Document Server

    Yedavalli, Rama K

    2014-01-01

    This textbook aims to provide a clear understanding of the various tools of analysis and design for robust stability and performance of uncertain dynamic systems. In model-based control design and analysis, mathematical models can never completely represent the “real world” system that is being modeled, and thus it is imperative to incorporate and accommodate a level of uncertainty into the models. This book directly addresses these issues from a deterministic uncertainty viewpoint and focuses on the interval parameter characterization of uncertain systems. Various tools of analysis and design are presented in a consolidated manner. This volume fills a current gap in published works by explicitly addressing the subject of control of dynamic systems from linear state space framework, namely using a time-domain, matrix-theory based approach. This book also: Presents and formulates the robustness problem in a linear state space model framework Illustrates various systems level methodologies with examples and...

  17. A method for evaluating the effectiveness of site characterization measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ditmars, J.D.

    1987-01-01

    A quantitative approach for evaluating the effectiveness of site characterization measurement activities is developed and illustrated with an example application to hypothetical measurement schemes at a potential geologic repository site for radioactive waste. The method is a general one and could also be applied at sites for underground disposal of hazardous chemicals. The approach presumes that measurements will be undertaken to support predictions of the performance of some aspect of a constructed facility or natural system. It requires a quantitative performance objective, such as groundwater travel time or contaminant concentration, against which to compare predictions of performance. The approach recognizes that such predictions are uncertain because the measurements upon which they are based are uncertain. The effectiveness of measurement activities is quantified by a confidence index, β, that reflects the number of standard deviations separating the best estimate of performance from the predetermined performance objective. Measurements that reduce the uncertainty in predictions lead to increased values of β. 5 refs., 4 figs

  18. Uncertain CERN cash means UK physicists face grant freeze.

    CERN Document Server

    1996-01-01

    Britain's funding agency Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council is uncertain about its ability to cover membership costs to the European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN). This has resulted in suspension of research grants to university physicists and astronomers. Funding will be available only for genuine hardship, and for major national and international astronomical projects that have already been sanctioned. The new four-year rolling grants to university-based particle physics group is withheld.

  19. Density Estimation in Several Populations With Uncertain Population Membership

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2011-09-01

    We devise methods to estimate probability density functions of several populations using observations with uncertain population membership, meaning from which population an observation comes is unknown. The probability of an observation being sampled from any given population can be calculated. We develop general estimation procedures and bandwidth selection methods for our setting. We establish large-sample properties and study finite-sample performance using simulation studies. We illustrate our methods with data from a nutrition study.

  20. R&D Collaboration with Uncertain Intellectual Property Rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czarnitzki, Dirk; Hussinger, Katrin; Schneider, Cédric

    2015-01-01

    uncertain intellectual property rights (IPRs) lead to reduced collaboration between firms and can, hence, hinder knowledge production. This has implications for technology policy as R&D collaborations are exempt from antitrust legislation in order to increase R&D in the economy. We argue that a functional IPR system......Patent pendencies create uncertainty in research and development (R&D) collaboration, which can result in a threat of expropriation of unprotected knowledge, reduced bargaining power and enhanced search costs. We show that—depending of the type of collaboration partner and the size of the company...

  1. R&D Collaboration with Uncertain Intellectual Property Rights

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czarnitzki, Dirk; Hussinger, Katrin; Schneider, Cédric

    - uncertain intellectual property rights (IPR) lead to reduced collaboration between firms and may hinder the production of knowledge. This has implications for technology policy as R&D collaborations are exempt from anti-trust legislation in order to increase R&D in the economy. We argue that a functional......Patent pendencies create uncertainty in research and development (R&D) collaboration agreements, resulting in a threat of expropriation of unprotected knowledge by potential partners, reduced bargaining power and enhanced search costs. In this paper, we show that - depending of the type of partner...

  2. A Precautionary-Principled Approach Towards Uncertain Risks: Review and Decision-Theoretic Elaboration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ch. Vlek (Charles)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPrecautionary judgment, decision, and action are needed in situations involving serious uncertain risk. Examples are mountain climbing, nanotechnology, global warming, and international terrorism. The history of the Precautionary Principle (PP) shows that its proponents and opponents

  3. On the C(R) stability of uncertain singularly perturbed systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Y.-J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a simple criterion for the C(R) stability of uncertain singularly perturbed systems is proposed. Such a criterion can be easily checked by some algebraic inequality. The upper bound of the singular perturbation parameter ε is also given by estimating the unique positive zero of specific function. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the main result

  4. Time-optimal path planning in uncertain flow fields using ensemble method

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Tong

    2016-01-06

    An ensemble-based approach is developed to conduct time-optimal path planning in unsteady ocean currents under uncertainty. We focus our attention on two-dimensional steady and unsteady uncertain flows, and adopt a sampling methodology that is well suited to operational forecasts, where a set deterministic predictions is used to model and quantify uncertainty in the predictions. In the operational setting, much about dynamics, topography and forcing of the ocean environment is uncertain, and as a result a single path produced by a model simulation has limited utility. To overcome this limitation, we rely on a finitesize ensemble of deterministic forecasts to quantify the impact of variability in the dynamics. The uncertainty of flow field is parametrized using a finite number of independent canonical random variables with known densities, and the ensemble is generated by sampling these variables. For each the resulting realizations of the uncertain current field, we predict the optimal path by solving a boundary value problem (BVP), based on the Pontryagin maximum principle. A family of backward-in-time trajectories starting at the end position is used to generate suitable initial values for the BVP solver. This allows us to examine and analyze the performance of sampling strategy, and develop insight into extensions dealing with regional or general circulation models. In particular, the ensemble method enables us to perform a statistical analysis of travel times, and consequently develop a path planning approach that accounts for these statistics. The proposed methodology is tested for a number of scenarios. We first validate our algorithms by reproducing simple canonical solutions, and then demonstrate our approach in more complex flow fields, including idealized, steady and unsteady double-gyre flows.

  5. Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

  6. Tsallis’ non-extensive free energy as a subjective value of an uncertain reward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Taiki

    2009-03-01

    Recent studies in neuroeconomics and econophysics revealed the importance of reward expectation in decision under uncertainty. Behavioral neuroeconomic studies have proposed that the unpredictability and the probability of an uncertain reward are distinctly encoded as entropy and a distorted probability weight, respectively, in the separate neural systems. However, previous behavioral economic and decision-theoretic models could not quantify reward-seeking and uncertainty aversion in a theoretically consistent manner. In this paper, we have: (i) proposed that generalized Helmholtz free energy in Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics can be utilized to quantify a perceived value of an uncertain reward, and (ii) empirically examined the explanatory powers of the models. Future study directions in neuroeconomics and econophysics by utilizing the Tsallis’ free energy model are discussed.

  7. On existence of control for a class of uncertain dynamical systems ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper we prove the existence of control for input bounded uncertain dynamical system, modeled on Euclidean spaces of dimensions n and m. We apply the Conjugate Gradient Method (C.G.M) in generating algorithms to compute control signals for the class of problem under consideration. Keywords: Control ...

  8. Decomposition and Projection Methods for Distributed Robustness Analysis of Interconnected Uncertain Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pakazad, Sina Khoshfetrat; Hansson, Anders; Andersen, Martin Skovgaard

    2013-01-01

    We consider a class of convex feasibility problems where the constraints that describe the feasible set are loosely coupled. These problems arise in robust stability analysis of large, weakly interconnected uncertain systems. To facilitate distributed implementation of robust stability analysis o...

  9. Towards electricity markets accommodating uncertain offers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Papakonstantinou, Athanasios; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    formulation of an electricity market, based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) reduces the impact of poor estimates for both the stochastic producers and the system operator. We introduce a simulation setting which first demonstrates that impact and then proceed to illustrate the main features......The use of renewable energy sources of energy and in particular wind and solar has been on the rise over the last decades with plans to increase it even more. Such developments introduce significant challenges in existing power systems and can result in high electricity prices and costly...... infrastructure investments. In this paper we propose a new electricity market mechanism whereby the uncertain and dynamic nature of wind power and other stochastic sources is embedded in the market mechanism itself, by modelling producers’ bids as probabilistic estimates. An extension on the bilevel programming...

  10. Non-fragile observer-based output feedback control for polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

  11. Association between gender inequality index and child mortality rates: a cross-national study of 138 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinda, Ethel Mary; Rajkumar, Anto P; Enemark, Ulrika

    2015-03-09

    Gender inequality weakens maternal health and harms children through many direct and indirect pathways. Allied biological disadvantage and psychosocial adversities challenge the survival of children of both genders. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has recently developed a Gender Inequality Index to measure the multidimensional nature of gender inequality. The global impact of Gender Inequality Index on the child mortality rates remains uncertain. We employed an ecological study to investigate the association between child mortality rates and Gender Inequality Indices of 138 countries for which UNDP has published the Gender Inequality Index. Data on child mortality rates and on potential confounders, such as, per capita gross domestic product and immunization coverage, were obtained from the official World Health Organization and World Bank sources. We employed multivariate non-parametric robust regression models to study the relationship between these variables. Women in low and middle income countries (LMICs) suffer significantly more gender inequality (p Gender Inequality Index (GII) was positively associated with neonatal (β = 53.85; 95% CI 41.61-64.09), infant (β = 70.28; 95% CI 51.93-88.64) and under five mortality rates (β = 68.14; 95% CI 49.71-86.58), after adjusting for the effects of potential confounders (p gender inequality and child mortality. We present the socio-economic problems, which sustain higher gender inequality and child mortality in LMICs. We further discuss the potential solutions pertinent to LMICs. Dissipating gender barriers and focusing on social well-being of women may augment the survival of children of both genders.

  12. 75 FR 78160 - Requirement of a Statement Disclosing Uncertain Tax Positions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-15

    ... amendments to the Income Tax Regulations (26 CFR part 1) under section 6012 relating to the returns of income... every person liable for income tax to make the returns required by regulation. Section 6012 requires... corporations to file a schedule disclosing uncertain tax positions related to the tax return as required by the...

  13. Simulation optimization based ant colony algorithm for the uncertain quay crane scheduling problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoufal Rouky

    2019-01-01

    Full Text Available This work is devoted to the study of the Uncertain Quay Crane Scheduling Problem (QCSP, where the loading /unloading times of containers and travel time of quay cranes are considered uncertain. The problem is solved with a Simulation Optimization approach which takes advantage of the great possibilities offered by the simulation to model the real details of the problem and the capacity of the optimization to find solutions with good quality. An Ant Colony Optimization (ACO meta-heuristic hybridized with a Variable Neighborhood Descent (VND local search is proposed to determine the assignments of tasks to quay cranes and the sequences of executions of tasks on each crane. Simulation is used inside the optimization algorithm to generate scenarios in agreement with the probabilities of the distributions of the uncertain parameters, thus, we carry out stochastic evaluations of the solutions found by each ant. The proposed optimization algorithm is tested first for the deterministic case on several well-known benchmark instances. Then, in the stochastic case, since no other work studied exactly the same problem with the same assumptions, the Simulation Optimization approach is compared with the deterministic version. The experimental results show that the optimization algorithm is competitive as compared to the existing methods and that the solutions found by the Simulation Optimization approach are more robust than those found by the optimization algorithm.

  14. Decision Making Under Uncertain Categorization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Ying-Fen Chen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Two experiments investigated how category information is used in decision making under uncertainty and whether the framing of category information influences how it is used. Subjects were presented with vignettes in which the categorization of a critical item was ambiguous and were asked to choose among a set of actions with the goal of attaining the desired outcome for the main character in the story. The normative decision making strategy was to base the decision on all possible categories; however, research on a related topic, category-based induction, has found that people often only consider a single category when making predictions when categorization is uncertain. These experiments found that subjects tend to consider multiple categories when making decisions, but do so both when it is and is not appropriate, suggesting that use of multiple categories is not driven by an understanding of what categories are and are not relevant to the decision. Similarly, although a framing manipulation increased the rate of multiple-category use, it did so in situations in which multiple-category use was and was not appropriate.

  15. EFFECTS OF WEATHER-INDEX INSURANCE: THE CASE OF SMALLHOLDER MAIZE FARMERS IN NORTHERN GHANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashiru Haruna

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the effect of weather-index insurance on intensity of fertilizer use and yields among 230 smallholder maize farmers in Northern Region of Ghana. Out of the total sample of selected farmers, about 35% purchased the insurance. Using an endogenous treatment regression model, the study showed that weather-index insurance purchase increased the intensity of fertilizer use but did not have a significant effect on maize yield. Past experience of crop failure due to drought, livestock ownership as well as the total area of land owned explained weather-index insurance purchase in the study area. Based on the results of this study, the Government of Ghana can use weather-index insurance as a policy tool to increase the use of fertilizer by smallholder maize farmers.

  16. A framework for the analysis of vibrations of structures with uncertain attachments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Shuo; Mace, Brian R.; Halkyard, Roger; Ferguson, Neil S.

    2016-01-01

    Attachments affect the dynamic response of an assembled structure. When engineers are modelling structures, small attachments will often not be included in the “bare” model, especially in the initial design stages. The location of these attachments might be poorly known, yet they affect the response of the structure. This paper considers how attachments jointed to the structure at uncertain points, can be included in the dynamic model of a structure. Two approaches are proposed. In the time domain, a combination of component mode synthesis, characteristic constraint modes and modal analysis gives a computationally efficient basis for subsequent analysis using, for example, Monte Carlo simulation. The frequency domain approach is based on assembly of frequency response functions of bare structure and attachment. Numerical examples of a beam and a plate with a point mass added at an uncertain location are considered and predictions compared with experiment results. (paper)

  17. Resolution of an uncertain closed-loop logistics model: an application to fuzzy linear programs with risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hsiao-Fan; Hsu, Hsin-Wei

    2010-11-01

    With the urgency of global warming, green supply chain management, logistics in particular, has drawn the attention of researchers. Although there are closed-loop green logistics models in the literature, most of them do not consider the uncertain environment in general terms. In this study, a generalized model is proposed where the uncertainty is expressed by fuzzy numbers. An interval programming model is proposed by the defined means and mean square imprecision index obtained from the integrated information of all the level cuts of fuzzy numbers. The resolution for interval programming is based on the decision maker (DM)'s preference. The resulting solution provides useful information on the expected solutions under a confidence level containing a degree of risk. The results suggest that the more optimistic the DM is, the better is the resulting solution. However, a higher risk of violation of the resource constraints is also present. By defining this probable risk, a solution procedure was developed with numerical illustrations. This provides a DM trade-off mechanism between logistic cost and the risk. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The role of computed tomography in uncertain obstructive jaundice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saito, Yoshihiro; Yoshino, Toyoaki; Takayanagi, Ryuichi; Negishi, Ken; Tanaka, Teruhiko; Ito, Ichiro.

    1985-01-01

    42 patients with uncertain obstructive jaundice were examined by computed tomography (CT). CT correctly diagnosed obstructive jaundice in 97% of 37 proven cases and the accuracy of CT in determing the level of obstruction was also 97%. But the sensitivity of CT in determing the cause of obstructive jaundice was 62.5%, particularly poor in common bile duct stone (61.5%), inflammation of common bile duct (0%), and common bile duct carcinoma (50%). All cases of diagnosed malignant tumors were inoperable. (author)

  19. Path Integration Applied to Structural Systems with Uncertain Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren R.K.; Köylüoglu, H. Ugur

    Path integration (cell-to-cell mapping) method is applied to evaluate the joint probability density function (jpdf) of the response of the structural systems, with uncertain properties, subject to white noise excitation. A general methodology to deal with uncertainties is outlined and applied...... to the friction controlled slip of a structure on a foundation where the friction coefficient is modelled as a random variable. Exact results derived using the total probability theorem are compared to the ones obtained via path integration....

  20. Robust finite-time chaos synchronization of uncertain permanent magnet synchronous motors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiang; Ren, Xuemei; Na, Jing

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, a robust finite-time chaos synchronization scheme is proposed for two uncertain third-order permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs). The whole synchronization error system is divided into two cascaded subsystems: a first-order subsystem and a second-order subsystem. For the first subsystem, we design a finite-time controller based on the finite-time Lyapunov stability theory. Then, according to the backstepping idea and the adding a power integrator technique, a second finite-time controller is constructed recursively for the second subsystem. No exogenous forces are required in the controllers design but only the direct-axis (d-axis) and the quadrature-axis (q-axis) stator voltages are used as manipulated variables. Comparative simulations are provided to show the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Exponentially asymptotical synchronization in uncertain complex dynamical networks with time delay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Qun; Yang Han; Li Lixiang; Yang Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Han Jiangxue, E-mail: luoqun@bupt.edu.c [National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2010-12-10

    Over the past decade, complex dynamical network synchronization has attracted more and more attention and important developments have been made. In this paper, we explore the scheme of globally exponentially asymptotical synchronization in complex dynamical networks with time delay. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and through defining the error function between adjacent nodes, four novel adaptive controllers are designed under four situations where the Lipschitz constants of the state function in nodes are known or unknown and the network structure is certain or uncertain, respectively. These controllers could not only globally asymptotically synchronize all nodes in networks, but also ensure that the error functions do not exceed the pre-scheduled exponential function. Finally, simulations of the synchronization among the chaotic system in the small-world and scale-free network structures are presented, which prove the effectiveness and feasibility of our controllers.

  2. The Effect of Uncertain End-of-Life Product Quality and Consumer Incentives on Partial Disassembly Sequencing in Value Recovery Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Rickli, Jeremy Lewis

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation addresses gaps in the interaction between End-of-Life (EoL) product acquisition systems and disassembly sequencing. The research focuses on two remanufacturing research problems; 1) modeling uncertain EoL product quality, quantity, and timing in regards to EoL product acquisition and disassembly sequencing and 2) designing EoL product acquisition schemes considering EoL product uncertainty. The main research objectives within these areas are; analyzing, predicting, and contr...

  3. Using reference trajectories to predicted uncertain systems: exemplified on a power plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Stoustrup, Jakob; Mataji, B.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a method for prediction of uncertain closed loop systems, where the uncertainties are depending on operating points. Such model uncertainties are often present when complicated non-linear systems are predicted. The method uses precomputed mean and variances of the prediction e...

  4. Forest Conservation in Costa Rica: when nonuse benefits are uncertain but rising

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bulte, E.H.; Soest, van D.P.; Kooten, van G.C.; Schipper, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    Stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate optimal holding of primary tropical forest in humid Costa Rica when future nonuse benefits of forest conservation are uncertain and increasing. The quasi-option value of maintaining primary forests is included as a component of investment in

  5. The Effectiveness of Web Search Engines to Index New Sites from Different Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirkola, Ari

    2009-01-01

    Introduction: Investigates how effectively Web search engines index new sites from different countries. The primary interest is whether new sites are indexed equally or whether search engines are biased towards certain countries. If major search engines show biased coverage it can be considered a significant economic and political problem because…

  6. Technology Proliferation: Acquisition Strategies and Opportunities for an Uncertain Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-20

    COVERED (From - To) 07/31/17 to 04/09/18 Technology Proliferation: Acquisition Strategies and Opportunities for an Uncertain Future Colonel Heather A...efficient and expeditious fielding of technologically superior capabilities. In today’s environment, it is commonplace for private industry to be the...first to develop and deploy technologies that can be adopted for defense systems. The result is that the Department of Defense (DoD) is largely a

  7. Robust lyapunov controller for uncertain systems

    KAUST Repository

    Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2017-02-23

    Various examples of systems and methods are provided for Lyapunov control for uncertain systems. In one example, a system includes a process plant and a robust Lyapunov controller configured to control an input of the process plant. The robust Lyapunov controller includes an inner closed loop Lyapunov controller and an outer closed loop error stabilizer. In another example, a method includes monitoring a system output of a process plant; generating an estimated system control input based upon a defined output reference; generating a system control input using the estimated system control input and a compensation term; and adjusting the process plant based upon the system control input to force the system output to track the defined output reference. An inner closed loop Lyapunov controller can generate the estimated system control input and an outer closed loop error stabilizer can generate the system control input.

  8. Adaptive robust PID controller design based on a sliding mode for uncertain chaotic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Weider; Yan Junjuh

    2005-01-01

    A robust adaptive PID controller design motivated from the sliding mode control is proposed for a class of uncertain chaotic systems in this paper. Three PID control gains, K p , K i , and K d , are adjustable parameters and will be updated online with an adequate adaptation mechanism to minimize a previously designed sliding condition. By introducing a supervisory controller, the stability of the closed-loop PID control system under with the plant uncertainty and external disturbance can be guaranteed. Finally, a well-known Duffing-Holmes chaotic system is used as an illustrative to show the effectiveness of the proposed robust adaptive PID controller

  9. An Active Fault-Tolerant Control Method Ofunmanned Underwater Vehicles with Continuous and Uncertain Faults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daqi Zhu

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a novel thruster fault diagnosis and accommodation system for open-frame underwater vehicles with abrupt faults. The proposed system consists of two subsystems: a fault diagnosis subsystem and a fault accommodation sub-system. In the fault diagnosis subsystem a ICMAC(Improved Credit Assignment Cerebellar Model Articulation Controllers neural network is used to realize the on-line fault identification and the weighting matrix computation. The fault accommodation subsystem uses a control algorithm based on weighted pseudo-inverse to find the solution of the control allocation problem. To illustrate the proposed method effective, simulation example, under multi-uncertain abrupt faults, is given in the paper.

  10. The Cramér-Rao Bounds and Sensor Selection for Nonlinear Systems with Uncertain Observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiguo; Shen, Xiaojing; Wang, Ping; Zhu, Yunmin

    2018-04-05

    This paper considers the problems of the posterior Cramér-Rao bound and sensor selection for multi-sensor nonlinear systems with uncertain observations. In order to effectively overcome the difficulties caused by uncertainty, we investigate two methods to derive the posterior Cramér-Rao bound. The first method is based on the recursive formula of the Cramér-Rao bound and the Gaussian mixture model. Nevertheless, it needs to compute a complex integral based on the joint probability density function of the sensor measurements and the target state. The computation burden of this method is relatively high, especially in large sensor networks. Inspired by the idea of the expectation maximization algorithm, the second method is to introduce some 0-1 latent variables to deal with the Gaussian mixture model. Since the regular condition of the posterior Cramér-Rao bound is unsatisfied for the discrete uncertain system, we use some continuous variables to approximate the discrete latent variables. Then, a new Cramér-Rao bound can be achieved by a limiting process of the Cramér-Rao bound of the continuous system. It avoids the complex integral, which can reduce the computation burden. Based on the new posterior Cramér-Rao bound, the optimal solution of the sensor selection problem can be derived analytically. Thus, it can be used to deal with the sensor selection of a large-scale sensor networks. Two typical numerical examples verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  11. On the robust optimization to the uncertain vaccination strategy problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaerani, D.; Anggriani, N.; Firdaniza

    2014-01-01

    In order to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases, the vaccination coverage needs to be minimized and also the basic reproduction number needs to be maintained below 1. This means that as we get the vaccination coverage as minimum as possible, thus we need to prevent the epidemic to a small number of people who already get infected. In this paper, we discuss the case of vaccination strategy in term of minimizing vaccination coverage, when the basic reproduction number is assumed as an uncertain parameter that lies between 0 and 1. We refer to the linear optimization model for vaccination strategy that propose by Becker and Starrzak (see [2]). Assuming that there is parameter uncertainty involved, we can see Tanner et al (see [9]) who propose the optimal solution of the problem using stochastic programming. In this paper we discuss an alternative way of optimizing the uncertain vaccination strategy using Robust Optimization (see [3]). In this approach we assume that the parameter uncertainty lies within an ellipsoidal uncertainty set such that we can claim that the obtained result will be achieved in a polynomial time algorithm (as it is guaranteed by the RO methodology). The robust counterpart model is presented

  12. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

    2016-12-28

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  13. On the robust optimization to the uncertain vaccination strategy problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chaerani, D., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Anggriani, N., E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id; Firdaniza, E-mail: d.chaerani@unpad.ac.id [Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, University of Padjadjaran Indonesia, Jalan Raya Bandung Sumedang KM 21 Jatinangor Sumedang 45363 (Indonesia)

    2014-02-21

    In order to prevent an epidemic of infectious diseases, the vaccination coverage needs to be minimized and also the basic reproduction number needs to be maintained below 1. This means that as we get the vaccination coverage as minimum as possible, thus we need to prevent the epidemic to a small number of people who already get infected. In this paper, we discuss the case of vaccination strategy in term of minimizing vaccination coverage, when the basic reproduction number is assumed as an uncertain parameter that lies between 0 and 1. We refer to the linear optimization model for vaccination strategy that propose by Becker and Starrzak (see [2]). Assuming that there is parameter uncertainty involved, we can see Tanner et al (see [9]) who propose the optimal solution of the problem using stochastic programming. In this paper we discuss an alternative way of optimizing the uncertain vaccination strategy using Robust Optimization (see [3]). In this approach we assume that the parameter uncertainty lies within an ellipsoidal uncertainty set such that we can claim that the obtained result will be achieved in a polynomial time algorithm (as it is guaranteed by the RO methodology). The robust counterpart model is presented.

  14. Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

    KAUST Repository

    Navarro, María

    2016-12-26

    Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

  15. Aircraft Cockpit Ergonomic Layout Evaluation Based on Uncertain Linguistic Multiattribute Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junxuan Chen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In the view of the current cockpit information interaction, facilities and other characteristics are increasingly multifarious; the early layout evaluation methods based on single or partial components, often cause comprehensive evaluation unilateral, leading to the problems of long development period and low efficiency. Considering the fuzziness of ergonomic evaluation and diversity of evaluation information attributes, we refine and build an evaluation system based on the characteristics of the current cockpit man-machine layout and introduce the different types of uncertain linguistic multiple attribute combination decision making (DTULDM method in the cockpit layout evaluation process. Meanwhile, we also establish an aircraft cockpit ergonomic layout evaluation model. Finally, an experiment about cockpit layout evaluation is given, and the result demonstrates that the proposed method about cockpit ergonomic layout evaluation is feasible and effective.

  16. High-negative effective refractive index of silver nanoparticles system in nanocomposite films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altunin, Konstantin K.; Gadomsky, Oleg N.

    2012-03-01

    We have proved on the basis of the experimental optical reflection and transmission spectra of the nanocomposite film of poly(methyl methacrylate) with silver nanoparticles that (PMMA + Ag) nanocomposite films have quasi-zero refractive indices in the optical wavelength range. We show that to achieve quasi-zero values of the complex index of refraction of composite materials is necessary to achieve high-negative effective refractive index in the system of spherical silver nanoparticles.

  17. Adaptive synchronization of uncertain chaotic colpitts oscillators based on parameter identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fotsin, H.B.; Daafouz, J.

    2005-01-01

    This Letter uses systematic tools from recent papers to design non-linear observers for synchronization of a chaotic colpitts oscillator both in the non adaptive and adaptive cases. It is shown that all parameters of a totally uncertain model of the oscillator can be estimated through adaptive synchronization. A strategy for practical implementation of a secure communication strategy is also discussed

  18. Nonsingular Terminal Sliding Mode Control of Uncertain Second-Order Nonlinear Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh-Duc Tran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a high-performance nonsingular terminal sliding mode control method for uncertain second-order nonlinear systems. First, a nonsingular terminal sliding mode surface is introduced to eliminate the singularity problem that exists in conventional terminal sliding mode control. By using this method, the system not only can guarantee that the tracking errors reach the reference value in a finite time with high-precision tracking performance but also can overcome the complex-value and the restrictions of the exponent (the exponent should be fractional number with an odd numerator and an odd denominator in traditional terminal sliding mode. Then, in order to eliminate the chattering phenomenon, a super-twisting higher-order nonsingular terminal sliding mode control method is proposed. The stability of the closed-loop system is established using the Lyapunov theory. Finally, simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. Exponential stability result for discrete-time stochastic fuzzy uncertain neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathiyalagan, K.; Sakthivel, R.; Marshal Anthoni, S.

    2012-01-01

    This Letter addresses the stability analysis problem for a class of uncertain discrete-time stochastic fuzzy neural networks (DSFNNs) with time-varying delays. By constructing a new Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional combined with the free weighting matrix technique, a new set of delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the robust exponential stability of the considered DSFNNs is established in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). Finally, numerical examples with simulation results are provided to illustrate the applicability and usefulness of the obtained theory. -- Highlights: ► Applications of neural networks require the knowledge of dynamic behaviors. ► Exponential stability of discrete-time stochastic fuzzy neural networks is studied. ► Linear matrix inequality optimization approach is used to obtain the result. ► Delay-dependent stability criterion is established in terms of LMIs. ► Examples with simulation are provided to show the effectiveness of the result.

  20. Information Extraction, Data Integration, and Uncertain Data Management: The State of The Art

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Habib, Mena Badieh; van Keulen, Maurice

    2011-01-01

    Information Extraction, data Integration, and uncertain data management are different areas of research that got vast focus in the last two decades. Many researches tackled those areas of research individually. However, information extraction systems should have integrated with data integration

  1. Forecasting the Dst index using a swarm-optimized neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzús, J. A.; Vega, P.; Rojas, P.; Salfate, I.

    2017-08-01

    A hybrid technique that combines an artificial neural network with a particle swarm optimization (ANN+PSO) was used to forecast the disturbance storm time (Dst) index from 1 to 6 h ahead. Our ANN was optimized by PSO to update ANN weights and to predict the short-term Dst index using past values as input parameters. The database used contains 233,760 hourly data from 1 January 1990 to 31 August 2016, considering storms and quiet period, grouped into three data sets: learning set (with 116,880 hourly data points), validation set (with 58,440 data points), and testing set (with 58,440 data points). Several ANN topologies were studied, and the best architecture was determined by systematically adding neurons and evaluating the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R) during the training process. These results show that the hybrid algorithm is a powerful technique for forecasting the Dst index a short time in advance like t + 1 to t + 3, with RMSE from 3.5 nT to 7.5 nT, and R from 0.98 to 0.90. However, t + 4 to t + 6 predictions become slightly more uncertain, with RMSE from 8.8 nT to 10.9 nT, and R from 0.86 to 0.79. Additionally, an exhaustive analysis according to geomagnetic storm magnitude was conducted. In general, the results show that our hybrid algorithm can be correctly trained to forecast the Dst index with appropriate precision and that Dst past behavior significantly affects adequate training and predicting capabilities of the implemented ANN.

  2. Adaptive fuzzy observer-based stabilization of a class of uncertain time-delayed chaotic systems with actuator nonlinearities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahnazi, Reza; Haghani, Adel; Jeinsch, Torsten

    2015-01-01

    An observer-based output feedback adaptive fuzzy controller is proposed to stabilize a class of uncertain chaotic systems with unknown time-varying time delays, unknown actuator nonlinearities and unknown external disturbances. The actuator nonlinearity can be backlash-like hysteresis or dead-zone. Based on universal approximation property of fuzzy systems the unknown nonlinear functions are approximated by fuzzy systems, where the consequent parts of fuzzy rules are tuned with adaptive schemes. The proposed method does not need the availability of the states and an observer based output feedback approach is proposed to estimate the states. To have more robustness and at the same time to alleviate chattering an adaptive discontinuous structure is suggested. Semi-global asymptotic stability of the overall system is ensured by proposing a suitable Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional candidate. The approach is applied to stabilize the time-delayed Lorenz chaotic system with uncertain dynamics amid significant disturbances. Analysis of simulations reveals the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of coping well with the modeling uncertainties, nonlinearities in actuators, unknown time-varying time-delays and unknown external disturbances while maintaining asymptotic convergence

  3. Risk assessment of salt contamination of groundwater under uncertain aquifer properties

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-10-01

    One of the central topics in hydrogeology and environmental science is the investigation of salinity-driven groundwater flow in heterogeneous porous media. Our goals are to model and to predict pollution of water resources. We simulate a density driven groundwater flow with uncertain porosity and permeability. This strongly non-linear model describes the unstable transport of salt water with building ‘fingers’-shaped patterns. The computation requires a very fine unstructured mesh and, therefore, high computational resources. We run the highly-parallel multigrid solver, based on ug4, on supercomputer Shaheen II. A MPI-based parallelization is done in the geometrical as well as in the stochastic spaces. Every scenario is computed on 32 cores and requires a mesh with ~8M grid points and 1500 or more time steps. 200 scenarios are computed concurrently. The total number of cores in parallel computation is 200x32=6400. The main goal of this work is to estimate propagation of uncertainties through the model, to investigate sensitivity of the solution to the input uncertain parameters. Additionally, we demonstrate how the multigrid ug4-based solver can be applied as a black-box in the uncertainty quantification framework.

  4. Robust stability analysis of uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Wei; Yang, Simon X.; Fu Wei; Wu Haixia

    2009-01-01

    This paper addresses the stability analysis problem for uncertain stochastic neural networks with interval time-varying delays. The parameter uncertainties are assumed to be norm bounded, and the delay factor is assumed to be time-varying and belong to a given interval, which means that the lower and upper bounds of interval time-varying delays are available. A sufficient condition is derived such that for all admissible uncertainties, the considered neural network is robustly, globally, asymptotically stable in the mean square. Some stability criteria are formulated by means of the feasibility of a linear matrix inequality (LMI), which can be effectively solved by some standard numerical packages. Finally, numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed criteria.

  5. Intraocular lens power calculation following LASIK: determination of the new effective index of refraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarade, Elias F; Abi Nader, Françoise C; Tabbara, Khalid F

    2006-01-01

    To determine the new corneal effective index of refraction (rN) following LASIK to be used for accurate keratometry reading (K-reading). A total of 332 eyes that underwent myopic LASIK were divided into two groups (group A [n = 137] and group B [n = 1951). In each group, patients were divided into four subgroups according to the amount of spherical equivalent refraction of myopic LASIK ablation (subgroup 1 [ -12.0 D]). In each subgroup of group A, K-reading was measured by the clinical history method and the new corneal effective index (rN) was determined using paraxial formula: (K-reading = (rN-1)/Ra), where Ra is the radius of curvature of the anterior corneal surface. In group B, the anterior radius of curvature of the cornea was determined by automated K-reading, and K-reading was measured in each subgroup using the new effective index in paraxial formula, clinical history method, and automated K-reading. In group A, the new effective index of refraction was 1.3355, 1.3286, 1.3237, and 1.3172 in the four subgroups, respectively. In group B, the mean K-reading measurements using rN in paraxial formula, clinical history method, and automated K-reading were: 40.33 +/- 1.68 D, 40.33 +/- 1.67 D, and 40.54 +/- 1.69 D, respectively, in subgroup 1; 37.96 +/- 1.26 D, 38.03 +/- 1.38 D, and 38.98 +/- 1.28 D, respectively, in subgroup 2; 35.77 +/- 1.75 D, 35.84 +/- 1.85 D, and 37.29 +/- 1.83 D, respectively, in subgroup 3; and 34.03 +/- 1.49 D, 34.15 +/- 1.84 D, and 36.21 +/- 1.59 D, respectively, in subgroup 4. In all subgroups of group B, the results of K-reading obtained using the new effective index of refraction were statistically similar to the results obtained by clinical history method (P > .05). Automated K-reading statistically overestimated the K-reading values in subgroups 2, 3, and 4 of group B (P < .001). The use of the new corneal effective index of refraction allows for an accurate derivation of K-reading from the anterior radius of curvature.

  6. Suppression of panel flutter of near-space aircraft based on non-probabilistic reliability theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye-Wei Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The vibration active control of the composite panels with the uncertain parameters in the hypersonic flow is studied using the non-probabilistic reliability theory. Using the piezoelectric patches as active control actuators, dynamic equations of panel are established by finite element method and Hamilton’s principle. And the control model of panel with uncertain parameters is obtained. According to the non-probabilistic reliability index, and besides being based on H∞ robust control theory and non-probabilistic reliability theory, the non-probabilistic reliability performance function is given. Moreover, the relationships between the robust controller and H∞ performance index and reliability are established. Numerical results show that the control method under the influence of reliability, H∞ performance index, and approaching velocity is effective to the vibration suppression of panel in the whole interval of uncertain parameters.

  7. Augmented nonlinear differentiator design and application to nonlinear uncertain systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Xingling; Liu, Jun; Li, Jie; Cao, Huiliang; Shen, Chong; Zhang, Xiaoming

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, an augmented nonlinear differentiator (AND) based on sigmoid function is developed to calculate the noise-less time derivative under noisy measurement condition. The essential philosophy of proposed AND in achieving high attenuation of noise effect is established by expanding the signal dynamics with extra state variable representing the integrated noisy measurement, then with the integral of measurement as input, the augmented differentiator is formulated to improve the estimation quality. The prominent advantages of the present differentiation technique are: (i) better noise suppression ability can be achieved without appreciable delay; (ii) the improved methodology can be readily extended to construct augmented high-order differentiator to obtain multiple derivatives. In addition, the convergence property and robustness performance against noises are investigated via singular perturbation theory and describing function method, respectively. Also, comparison with several classical differentiators is given to illustrate the superiority of AND in noise suppression. Finally, the robust control problems of nonlinear uncertain systems, including a numerical example and a mass spring system, are addressed to demonstrate the effectiveness of AND in precisely estimating the disturbance and providing the unavailable differential estimate to implement output feedback based controller. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Application of Intelligent Dynamic Bayesian Network with Wavelet Analysis for Probabilistic Prediction of Storm Track Intensity Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The effective prediction of storm track (ST is greatly beneficial for analyzing the development and anomalies of mid-latitude weather systems. For the non-stationarity, nonlinearity, and uncertainty of ST intensity index (STII, a new probabilistic prediction model was proposed based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN and wavelet analysis (WA. We introduced probability theory and graph theory for the first time to quantitatively describe the nonlinear relationship and uncertain interaction of the ST system. Then a casual prediction network (i.e., DBN was constructed through wavelet decomposition, structural learning, parameter learning, and probabilistic inference, which was used for expression of relation among predictors and probabilistic prediction of STII. The intensity prediction of the North Pacific ST with data from 1961–2010 showed that the new model was able to give more comprehensive prediction information and higher prediction accuracy and had strong generalization ability and good stability.

  9. Delay-Dependent Stability Analysis of Uncertain Fuzzy Systems with State and Input Delays under Imperfect Premise Matching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zejian Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the stability and stabilization problem for uncertain T-S fuzzy systems with time-varying state and input delays. A new augmented Lyapunov function with an additional triple-integral term and different membership functions of the fuzzy models and fuzzy controllers are introduced to derive the stability criterion, which is less conservative than the existing results. Moreover, a new flexibility design method is also provided. Some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and less conservativeness of the proposed method.

  10. Disturbance attenuation for uncertain control systems with contributions by Alberto Isidori and Dietrich Flockerzi

    CERN Document Server

    Knobloch, Hans Wilhelm

    2014-01-01

      This book presents a survey on recent attempts to treat classical regulator design problems in case of an uncertain dynamics. It is shown that source of the uncertainty can be twofold: (i) The system is under the influence of an exogenous disturbance about which one has only incomplete - or none - information. (ii) A portion of the dynamical law is unspecified - due to imperfect modeling. Both cases are described by the state space model in a unified way “Disturbance Attenuation for Uncertain Control Systems” presents a variety of approaches to the design problem in the presence of a (partly) unknown disturbance signal. There is a clear philosophy underlying each approach which can be characterized by either one of the following terms: Adaptive Control, Worst Case Design, Dissipation Inequalities.  .

  11. The System for Assessment of the Effectiveness of Personnel Stimulation on the Basis of Integral Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. K.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article’s objective is to construct the system for assessment ofpersonnel manage­ ment performance and its testing on a sample o f Ukrainian companies. Problems o f person­ nel stimulation at company level are highlighted. It is proposed to build the mechanism for company personnel stimulation by functional approach. Indicators to be used for assess­ ing the means o f personnel stimulation (material stimulation, organizational stimulation, social and psychological stimulation and personnel management modeling are given. The algorithm for estimating the integral index o f the personnel stimulation effectiveness is recommended. Estimation o f the index o f social and psychological stimulation of company personnel by the proposed method is illustrated. By use o f the proposed algorithm it is demonstrated that the material stimulation (salary rate is the most important determinant o f the highly effective personnel stimulation. The integral index o f the personnel stimulation effectiveness is estimated by correlation and regression analysis for a sample of Ukrainian companies over 2011-2015. On its basis, the companies under study are grouped by level of personnel stimulation. Corrective measures to increase the integral index o f the personnel stimulation effectiveness in each company under study are proposed. The matrix o f correc­ tive measures on personnel stimulation at these companies is constructed and used to find the range o f estimates o f the integral index o f the personnel stimulation effectiveness. The quality o f personnel stimulation mechanism at company level is assessed on the basis o f the estimated integral index o f the personnel stimulation effectiveness.

  12. Determining the interviewer effect on CQ Index outcomes: a multilevel approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winters Sjenny

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The CQ Index for the elderly, a quality-of-care questionnaire administered by conducting interviews, is used to assess clients' experiences in Dutch nursing homes and homes for the elderly. This article describes whether inter-interviewer differences influence the perceived quality of healthcare services reported by residents, the size of this interviewer effect and the influence of the interviewer characteristics on CQ Index dimensions for public reporting. Methods Data from 4345 questionnaires was used. Correlations were calculated, reliability analyses were performed, and a multilevel analysis was used to calculate the degree of correlation between two interviewers within one health care institution. Five models were constructed and the Intra Class Correlation (ICC was calculated. Healthcare institutions were given 1-5 stars on every quality dimensions (1 = worst and 5 = best, adjusted for resident and interviewer characteristics. The effect of these characteristics on the assignment of the stars was investigated. Results In a multilevel approach, the ICC showed a significant amount of variance on five quality dimensions. Of the interviewer characteristics, only previous interviewing experience, the reason of interviewing and general knowledge of health care had a significant effect on the quality dimensions. Adjusting for interviewer characteristics did not affect the overall star assignment to the institutions regarding 7 of 12 quality dimensions. For the other five dimensions (Shared decision-making, Meals, Professional competency, Autonomy, and Availability of personnel a minor effect was found. Conclusions We have shown that training, the use of experienced interviewers, written instructions, supervision and educational meetings do not automatically prevent interviewer effects. While the results of this study can be used to improve the quality of services provided by these institutions, several CQ index dimensions

  13. Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shao-rui; Geng, Shi-chao; Fan, Lin-xiao; Chen, Jia-jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-juan

    2017-01-01

    Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A “chaining” inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure. PMID:28471111

  14. Intelligent diagnosis of jaundice with dynamic uncertain causality graph model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shao-Rui; Geng, Shi-Chao; Fan, Lin-Xiao; Chen, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Qin; Li, Lan-Juan

    2017-05-01

    Jaundice is a common and complex clinical symptom potentially occurring in hepatology, general surgery, pediatrics, infectious diseases, gynecology, and obstetrics, and it is fairly difficult to distinguish the cause of jaundice in clinical practice, especially for general practitioners in less developed regions. With collaboration between physicians and artificial intelligence engineers, a comprehensive knowledge base relevant to jaundice was created based on demographic information, symptoms, physical signs, laboratory tests, imaging diagnosis, medical histories, and risk factors. Then a diagnostic modeling and reasoning system using the dynamic uncertain causality graph was proposed. A modularized modeling scheme was presented to reduce the complexity of model construction, providing multiple perspectives and arbitrary granularity for disease causality representations. A "chaining" inference algorithm and weighted logic operation mechanism were employed to guarantee the exactness and efficiency of diagnostic reasoning under situations of incomplete and uncertain information. Moreover, the causal interactions among diseases and symptoms intuitively demonstrated the reasoning process in a graphical manner. Verification was performed using 203 randomly pooled clinical cases, and the accuracy was 99.01% and 84.73%, respectively, with or without laboratory tests in the model. The solutions were more explicable and convincing than common methods such as Bayesian Networks, further increasing the objectivity of clinical decision-making. The promising results indicated that our model could be potentially used in intelligent diagnosis and help decrease public health expenditure.

  15. Strict Constraint Feasibility in Analysis and Design of Uncertain Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Giesy, Daniel P.; Kenny, Sean P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design optimization of models subject to parametric uncertainty, where hard inequality constraints are present. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations prescribed by the uncertainty model. Emphasis is given to uncertainty models prescribed by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles. These models make it possible to consider sets of parameters having comparable as well as dissimilar levels of uncertainty. Two alternative formulations for hyper-rectangular sets are proposed, one based on a transformation of variables and another based on an infinity norm approach. The suite of tools developed enable us to determine if the satisfaction of hard constraints is feasible by identifying critical combinations of uncertain parameters. Since this practice is performed without sampling or partitioning the parameter space, the resulting assessments of robustness are analytically verifiable. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness of competing design alternatives, the approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness characteristics are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the solution methods only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, the tools developed are applicable to a broad range of problems in several disciplines.

  16. Analytic Model Predictive Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems: A Fuzzy Adaptive Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyan Peng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive control method is proposed in this paper for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. Specifically, invoking the standard results from the Moore-Penrose inverse of matrix, the unmatched problem which exists commonly in input and output dimensions of systems is firstly solved. Then, recurring to analytic model predictive control law, combined with fuzzy adaptive approach, the fuzzy adaptive predictive controller synthesis for the underlying systems is developed. To further reduce the impact of fuzzy approximation error on the system and improve the robustness of the system, the robust compensation term is introduced. It is shown that by applying the fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive controller the rudder roll stabilization system is ultimately uniformly bounded stabilized in the H-infinity sense. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  17. THE EFFECTS OF THE BODY MASS INDEXES ON THE DIFFERENT DISCIPLINES IN SWIMMING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milomir Trivun

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available On the sample of 39 tested male students of the Faculty of Physical Education at the University in East Sarajevo, who were 22 years +-6 months old in 2007/08 academic year, there has been done the research on the effects of the body mass indexes on the different sections in swimming. The results gained using the measures of the central tendencies and regression analysis showed the different effects of the body mass indexes in swimming. The results were in the relation with stylistic ways of moving at 50m and 100m swimming the crawl.

  18. Distributed Fault-Tolerant Control of Networked Uncertain Euler-Lagrange Systems Under Actuator Faults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Gang; Song, Yongduan; Lewis, Frank L

    2016-05-03

    This paper investigates the distributed fault-tolerant control problem of networked Euler-Lagrange systems with actuator and communication link faults. An adaptive fault-tolerant cooperative control scheme is proposed to achieve the coordinated tracking control of networked uncertain Lagrange systems on a general directed communication topology, which contains a spanning tree with the root node being the active target system. The proposed algorithm is capable of compensating for the actuator bias fault, the partial loss of effectiveness actuation fault, the communication link fault, the model uncertainty, and the external disturbance simultaneously. The control scheme does not use any fault detection and isolation mechanism to detect, separate, and identify the actuator faults online, which largely reduces the online computation and expedites the responsiveness of the controller. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a test-bed of multiple robot-arm cooperative control system is developed for real-time verification. Experiments on the networked robot-arms are conduced and the results confirm the benefits and the effectiveness of the proposed distributed fault-tolerant control algorithms.

  19. Cooperative Strategies for Maximum-Flow Problem in Uncertain Decentralized Systems Using Reliability Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadi Heidari Gharehbolagh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates a multiowner maximum-flow network problem, which suffers from risky events. Uncertain conditions effect on proper estimation and ignoring them may mislead decision makers by overestimation. A key question is how self-governing owners in the network can cooperate with each other to maintain a reliable flow. Hence, the question is answered by providing a mathematical programming model based on applying the triangular reliability function in the decentralized networks. The proposed method concentrates on multiowner networks which suffer from risky time, cost, and capacity parameters for each network’s arcs. Some cooperative game methods such as τ-value, Shapley, and core center are presented to fairly distribute extra profit of cooperation. A numerical example including sensitivity analysis and the results of comparisons are presented. Indeed, the proposed method provides more reality in decision-making for risky systems, hence leading to significant profits in terms of real cost estimation when compared with unforeseen effects.

  20. Non-fragile guaranteed cost control for uncertain neutral dynamic systems with time-varying delays in state and control input

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lien, C.-H.

    2007-01-01

    This article considers non-fragile guaranteed cost control problem for a class of uncertain neutral system with time-varying delays in both state and control input. Delay-dependent criteria are proposed to guarantee the robust stabilization of systems. Linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimization approach is used to solve the non-fragile guaranteed cost control problem. Non-fragile guaranteed cost control for unperturbed neutral system is considered in the first step. Robust non-fragile guaranteed cost control for uncertain neutral system is designed directly from the unperturbed condition. An efficient approach is proposed to design the non-fragile guaranteed cost control for uncertain neutral systems. LMI toolbox of Matlab is used to implement the proposed results. Finally, a numerical example is illustrated to show the usefulness of the proposed results

  1. Discrete-Time Sliding-Mode Control of Uncertain Systems with Time-Varying Delays via Descriptor Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maode Yan

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of robust discrete-time sliding-mode control (DT-SMC design for a class of uncertain linear systems with time-varying delays. By applying a descriptor model transformation and Moon's inequality for bounding cross terms, a delay-dependent sufficient condition for the existence of stable sliding surface is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs. Based on this existence condition, the synthesized sliding mode controller can guarantee the sliding-mode reaching condition of the specified discrete-time sliding surface for all admissible uncertainties and time-varying delays. An illustrative example verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON BANKING STOCK PRICE INDEX IN INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laduna R.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock price index can be regarded as a barometer in the measuremet of a nation’s economic condition, besides it can also be used in conducting statistical analysis on the current market. Stock is the proof of one’s share in a company in the form of securities issued by the listed go-public companies. This study was conducted to measure the effect of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate on banking stock price index in Indonesia stock exchange or Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI. The results of study show that inflation and exchange rate posively influence the stock price index. The positive effect of the exchange rate shows that issuers who were positively affected by Rupiah (IDR depreciation appear to be the most dominant group. Meanwhile, the interest rate or Suku Bunga (SBI has a negative effect. Lower interest rate stimulates higher investments and better economic activities which increase the stock price.

  3. Strong practical stability and stabilization of uncertain discrete linear repetitive processes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dabkowski, Pavel; Galkowski, K.; Bachelier, O.; Rogers, E.; Kummert, A.; Lam, J.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 2 (2013), s. 220-233 ISSN 1070-5325 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : strong practical stability * stabilization * uncertain discrete linear repetitive processes * linear matrix inequality Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 1.424, year: 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/nla.812/abstract

  4. Robust Stability and H∞ Control of Uncertain Piecewise Linear Switched Systems with Filippov Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmadi, Mohamadreza; Mojallali, Hamed; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the robust stability and control problem of uncertain piecewise linear switched systems where, instead of the conventional Carathe ́odory solutions, we allow for Filippov solutions. In other words, in contrast to the previous studies, solutions with infinite switching in fini...... algorithm is proposed to surmount the aforementioned matrix inequality conditions....... time along the facets and on faces of arbitrary dimensions are also taken into account. Firstly, based on earlier results, the stability problem of piecewise linear systems with Filippov solutions is translated into a number of linear matrix inequality feasibility tests. Subsequently, a set of matrix...... inequalities are brought forward, which determines the asymptotic stability of the Filippov solutions of a given uncertain piecewise linear system. Afterwards, bilinear matrix inequality conditions for synthesizing a robust controller with a guaranteed H∞ per- formance are formulated. Finally, a V-K iteration...

  5. Robust output feedback cruise control for high-speed train movement with uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Shu-Kai; Yang Li-Xing; Li Ke-Ping

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, the robust output feedback cruise control for high-speed train movement with uncertain parameters is investigated. The dynamic of a high-speed train is modeled by a cascade of cars connected by flexible couplers, which is subject to rolling mechanical resistance, aerodynamic drag and wind gust. Based on Lyapunov’s stability theory, the sufficient condition for the existence of the robust output feedback cruise control law is given in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), under which the high-speed train tracks the desired speed, the relative spring displacement between the two neighboring cars is stable at the equilibrium state, and meanwhile a small prescribed H ∞ disturbance attenuation level is guaranteed. One numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. (paper)

  6. Generalized dislocated lag function projective synchronization of fractional order chaotic systems with fully uncertain parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Cong; Zhang, Hong-li; Fan, Wen-hui

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new method to improve the safety of secure communication. This method uses the generalized dislocated lag projective synchronization and function projective synchronization to form a new generalized dislocated lag function projective synchronization. Moreover, this paper takes the examples of fractional order Chen system and Lü system with uncertain parameters as illustration. As the parameters of the two systems are uncertain, the nonlinear controller and parameter update algorithms are designed based on the fractional stability theory and adaptive control method. Moreover, this synchronization form and method of control are applied to secure communication via chaotic masking modulation. Many information signals can be recovered and validated. Finally, simulations are used to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed scheme.

  7. Multi-Period Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Uncertain Time Horizon When Returns Are Serially Correlated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ling Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We study a multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem with an uncertain time horizon and serial correlations. Firstly, we embed the nonseparable multi-period optimization problem into a separable quadratic optimization problem with uncertain exit time by employing the embedding technique of Li and Ng (2000. Then we convert the later into an optimization problem with deterministic exit time. Finally, using the dynamic programming approach, we explicitly derive the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier for the dynamic mean-variance optimization problem. A numerical example with AR(1 return process is also presented, which shows that both the uncertainty of exit time and the serial correlations of returns have significant impacts on the optimal strategy and the efficient frontier.

  8. Body mass index effects sperm quality: a retrospective study in Northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    En-Yin Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Excess weight and obesity have become a serious problem in adult men of reproductive age throughout the world. The purpose of this retrospective study was to assess the relationships between body mass index and sperm quality in subfertile couples in a Chinese Han population. Sperm analyses were performed and demographic data collected from 2384 male partners in subfertile couples who visited a reproductive medical center for treatment and preconception counseling. The subjects were classified into four groups according to their body mass index: underweight, normal, overweight, and obese. Of these subjects, 918 (38.3% had a body mass index of >25.0 kg m−0 2 . No significant differences were found between the four groups with respect to age, occupation, level of education, smoking status, alcohol use, duration of sexual abstinence, or the collection time of year for sperm. The results clearly indicated lower sperm quality (total sperm count, sperm concentration, motile sperm, relative amounts of type A motility, and progressive motility sperm [A + B] in overweight and obese participants than in those with normal body mass index. Normal sperm morphology and sperm volume showed no clear difference between the four groups. This study indicates that body mass index has a negative effect on sperm quality in men of subfertile couples in a Northern Chinese population. Further study should be performed to investigate the relationship between body mass index and sperm quality in a larger population.

  9. Homogenization-based interval analysis for structural-acoustic problem involving periodical composites and multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ning; Yu, Dejie; Xia, Baizhan; Liu, Jian; Ma, Zhengdong

    2017-04-01

    This paper presents a homogenization-based interval analysis method for the prediction of coupled structural-acoustic systems involving periodical composites and multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters. In the structural-acoustic system, the macro plate structure is assumed to be composed of a periodically uniform microstructure. The equivalent macro material properties of the microstructure are computed using the homogenization method. By integrating the first-order Taylor expansion interval analysis method with the homogenization-based finite element method, a homogenization-based interval finite element method (HIFEM) is developed to solve a periodical composite structural-acoustic system with multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters. The corresponding formulations of the HIFEM are deduced. A subinterval technique is also introduced into the HIFEM for higher accuracy. Numerical examples of a hexahedral box and an automobile passenger compartment are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the presented method for a periodical composite structural-acoustic system with multi-scale uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

  10. The effect of various pozzolanic additives on the concrete strength index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitola, L.; Sahmenko, G.; Erdmane, D.; Bumanis, G.; Bajare, D.

    2017-10-01

    The concrete industry is searching continuously for new effective mineral additives to improve the concrete properties. Replacing cement with the pozzolanic additives in most cases has resulted not only in positive impact on the environment but also has improved strength and durability of the concrete. Effective pozzolanic additives can be obtained from natural resources such as volcanic ashes, kaolin and other sediments as well as from different production industries that create various by-products with high pozzolanic reactivity. Current research deals with effectiveness evaluation of various mineral additives/wastes, such as coal combustion bottom ash, barley bottom ash, waste glass and metakaolin containing waste as well as calcined illite clays as supplementary cementitious materials, to be used in concrete production as partial cement replacement. Most of the examined materials are used as waste stream materials with potential reactive effect on the concrete. Milling time and fineness of the tested supplementary material has been evaluated and effectiveness was detected. Results indicate that fineness of the tested materials has crucial effect on the concrete compressive strength index. Not in all cases the prolonged milling time can increase fineness and reactivity of the supplementary materials; however the optimal milling time and fineness of the pozolanic additives increased the strength index of concrete up to 1.16 comparing to reference, even in cases when cement was substituted by 20 w%.

  11. Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

  12. Semi-Coercive Variational Inequalities with Uncertain Input Data. Applications to Shaloow Shells

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváček, Ivan; Lovíšek, J.

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 2 (2005), s. 273-299 ISSN 0218-2025 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA201/01/1200; GA ČR(CZ) GA201/02/1058 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : control of variational inequalities * uncertain input data * shallow elastic shells Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.248, year: 2005

  13. GROUP-BUYING ONLINE AUCTION AND OPTIMAL INVENTORY POLICY IN UNCERTAIN MARKET

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian CHEN; Yunhui LIU; Xiping SONG

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we consider a group-buying online auction (GBA) model for a monopolistic manufacturer selling novel products in the uncertain market. Firstly, we introduce the bidder's dominant strategy, after which we optimize the GBA price curve and the production volume together.Finally, we compare the GBA with the traditional posted pricing mechanism and find that the GBA is highly probable to be advantageous over the posted pricing mechanism in some appropriate market environments.

  14. Calibration of uncertain inputs to computer models using experimentally measured quantities and the BMARS emulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, H.F.; McClarren, R.G.; Kuranz, C.C.; Grosskopf, M.J.; Rutter, E.; Torralva, B.R.

    2011-01-01

    We present a method for calibrating the uncertain inputs to a computer model using available experimental data. The goal of the procedure is to produce posterior distributions of the uncertain inputs such that when samples from the posteriors are used as inputs to future model runs, the model is more likely to replicate (or predict) the experimental response. The calibration is performed by sampling the space of the uncertain inputs, using the computer model (or, more likely, an emulator for the computer model) to assign weights to the samples, and applying the weights to produce the posterior distributions and generate predictions of new experiments within confidence bounds. The method is similar to the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) calibration methods with independent sampling with the exception that we generate samples beforehand and replace the candidate acceptance routine with a weighting scheme. We apply our method to the calibration of a Hyades 2D model of laser energy deposition in beryllium. We employ a Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS) emulator as a surrogate for Hyades 2D. We treat a range of uncertainties in our system, including uncertainties in the experimental inputs, experimental measurement error, and systematic experimental timing errors. The results of the calibration are posterior distributions that both agree with intuition and improve the accuracy and decrease the uncertainty in experimental predictions. (author)

  15. Melioration as rational choice: sequential decision making in uncertain environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, Chris R; Neth, Hansjörg; Jacobs, Robert A; Gray, Wayne D

    2013-01-01

    Melioration-defined as choosing a lesser, local gain over a greater longer term gain-is a behavioral tendency that people and pigeons share. As such, the empirical occurrence of meliorating behavior has frequently been interpreted as evidence that the mechanisms of human choice violate the norms of economic rationality. In some environments, the relationship between actions and outcomes is known. In this case, the rationality of choice behavior can be evaluated in terms of how successfully it maximizes utility given knowledge of the environmental contingencies. In most complex environments, however, the relationship between actions and future outcomes is uncertain and must be learned from experience. When the difficulty of this learning challenge is taken into account, it is not evident that melioration represents suboptimal choice behavior. In the present article, we examine human performance in a sequential decision-making experiment that is known to induce meliorating behavior. In keeping with previous results using this paradigm, we find that the majority of participants in the experiment fail to adopt the optimal decision strategy and instead demonstrate a significant bias toward melioration. To explore the origins of this behavior, we develop a rational analysis (Anderson, 1990) of the learning problem facing individuals in uncertain decision environments. Our analysis demonstrates that an unbiased learner would adopt melioration as the optimal response strategy for maximizing long-term gain. We suggest that many documented cases of melioration can be reinterpreted not as irrational choice but rather as globally optimal choice under uncertainty.

  16. Feature inference with uncertain categorization: Re-assessing Anderson's rational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konovalova, Elizaveta; Le Mens, Gaël

    2017-09-18

    A key function of categories is to help predictions about unobserved features of objects. At the same time, humans are often in situations where the categories of the objects they perceive are uncertain. In an influential paper, Anderson (Psychological Review, 98(3), 409-429, 1991) proposed a rational model for feature inferences with uncertain categorization. A crucial feature of this model is the conditional independence assumption-it assumes that the within category feature correlation is zero. In prior research, this model has been found to provide a poor fit to participants' inferences. This evidence is restricted to task environments inconsistent with the conditional independence assumption. Currently available evidence thus provides little information about how this model would fit participants' inferences in a setting with conditional independence. In four experiments based on a novel paradigm and one experiment based on an existing paradigm, we assess the performance of Anderson's model under conditional independence. We find that this model predicts participants' inferences better than competing models. One model assumes that inferences are based on just the most likely category. The second model is insensitive to categories but sensitive to overall feature correlation. The performance of Anderson's model is evidence that inferences were influenced not only by the more likely category but also by the other candidate category. Our findings suggest that a version of Anderson's model which relaxes the conditional independence assumption will likely perform well in environments characterized by within-category feature correlation.

  17. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2015-09-01

    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  18. Effect of money supply on the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Širůček

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This focus of this paper are the effects and implications of a change in the money supply for share price indices in the USA during 1959–2011. The money supply will be measured by the M2 and MZM aggregates (money with zero maturity. The US stock market is represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average index. The objective of this paper is to find, describe and evaluate the effects of changes to the money supply (M2 and MZM on the US stock market. A partial objective of this paper is to determine whether a change in the monetary aggregate shows in the stock index immediately or with a delay of several weeks. Another aim is to determine whether asset prices influence the money supply.

  19. The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Towards Stock Index Case Study : Jakarta Islamic Index 2006-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lak lak Nashat el Hasanah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Fluctuation in economy situation is an important indicator for investor decision making. The investor actions are base on the minimum risk while having maximum profit. One of it is observing the condition of macro variables within monetary policy. This research aims to analyze the impact of inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate towards stock of jakarta islamic Index. The type data used is times series periode 2006-2014. Multiple linier regression with chow test and dummy variable approach to compare and to know the behavior of each independent variables. The result shows partially that birate and exchange rate negatively impact Jakarta Islamic Index before global monetary crisis in 2008, while inflation and money supply not that significantly impact. After global monetary crisis in 2008, partially, birate variable and money supply significantly giving positive influence to Jakarta Islamic Index, while at same time exchange rate and inflation are not significantly influencial. Simultaneously, inflation, money supply, exchange rate, and birate influence Jakarta islamic Index.

  20. The e-index, complementing the h-index for excess citations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-Ting Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The h-index has already been used by major citation databases to evaluate the academic performance of individual scientists. Although effective and simple, the h-index suffers from some drawbacks that limit its use in accurately and fairly comparing the scientific output of different researchers. These drawbacks include information loss and low resolution: the former refers to the fact that in addition to h(2 citations for papers in the h-core, excess citations are completely ignored, whereas the latter means that it is common for a group of researchers to have an identical h-index. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To solve these problems, I here propose the e-index, where e(2 represents the ignored excess citations, in addition to the h(2 citations for h-core papers. Citation information can be completely depicted by using the h-index together with the e-index, which are independent of each other. Some other h-type indices, such as a and R, are h-dependent, have information redundancy with h, and therefore, when used together with h, mask the real differences in excess citations of different researchers. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although simple, the e-index is a necessary h-index complement, especially for evaluating highly cited scientists or for precisely comparing the scientific output of a group of scientists having an identical h-index.

  1. Uncertain multiobjective redundancy allocation problem of repairable systems based on artificial bee colony algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Jiansheng; Wang Zutong; Zheng Mingfa; Wang Ying

    2014-01-01

    Based on the uncertainty theory, this paper is devoted to the redundancy allocation problem in repairable parallel-series systems with uncertain factors, where the failure rate, repair rate and other relative coefficients involved are considered as uncertain variables. The availability of the system and the corresponding designing cost are considered as two optimization objectives. A crisp multiobjective optimization formulation is presented on the basis of uncertainty theory to solve this resultant problem. For solving this problem efficiently, a new multiobjective artificial bee colony algorithm is proposed to search the Pareto efficient set, which introduces rank value and crowding distance in the greedy selection strategy, applies fast non-dominated sort procedure in the exploitation search and inserts tournament selection in the onlooker bee phase. It shows that the proposed algorithm outperforms NSGA-II greatly and can solve multiobjective redundancy allocation problem efficiently. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate this approach.

  2. Optimizing Bus Frequencies under Uncertain Demand: Case Study of the Transit Network in a Developing City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhengfeng Huang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Various factors can make predicting bus passenger demand uncertain. In this study, a bilevel programming model for optimizing bus frequencies based on uncertain bus passenger demand is formulated. There are two terms constituting the upper-level objective. The first is transit network cost, consisting of the passengers’ expected travel time and operating costs, and the second is transit network robustness performance, indicated by the variance in passenger travel time. The second term reflects the risk aversion of decision maker, and it can make the most uncertain demand be met by the bus operation with the optimal transit frequency. With transit link’s proportional flow eigenvalues (mean and covariance obtained from the lower-level model, the upper-level objective is formulated by the analytical method. In the lower-level model, the above two eigenvalues are calculated by analyzing the propagation of mean transit trips and their variation in the optimal strategy transit assignment process. The genetic algorithm (GA used to solve the model is tested in an example network. Finally, the model is applied to determining optimal bus frequencies in the city of Liupanshui, China. The total cost of the transit system in Liupanshui can be reduced by about 6% via this method.

  3. Exposure to blue wavelength light modulates anterior cingulate cortex activation in response to 'uncertain' versus 'certain' anticipation of positive stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkozei, Anna; Smith, Ryan; Killgore, William D S

    2016-03-11

    Blue wavelength light has been used as an effective treatment for some types of mood disorders and circadian rhythm related sleep problems. We hypothesized that acute exposure to blue wavelength light would directly affect the functioning of neurocircuity implicated in emotion regulation (i.e., ventromedial prefrontal cortex, amygdala, insula, and anterior cingulate cortex [ACC]) during 'certain' and 'uncertain' anticipation of negative and positive stimuli. Thirty-five healthy adults were randomized to receive a thirty-minute exposure to either blue (active) or amber (placebo) light, immediately followed by an emotional anticipation task during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In contrast to placebo, participants in the blue light group showed significantly reduced activation within the rostral ACC during 'uncertain' anticipation (i.e., uncertainty regarding whether a positive or negative stimulus would be shown) in comparison to 'certain' anticipation of a positive stimulus. These findings may be explicable in terms of interactions between blue light exposure and the influence of specific neuromodulators on ACC-mediated decision-making mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Information Fusion for Hypothesis Generation under Uncertain and Partial Information Access Situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-07-21

    been well investigated in the past. LE CHATELIER -BRAUN’S PRINCIPLE provides a basis for response against perturbations for systems in equilibrium, as...layer from the low level voltage fluctuation. (Fig. 3) Fig 3: Airplane as an example of engineered robust system In principle , robustness of the...as fundamental architectural principle Since the system will be used under hostile and uncertain environments, robustness shall be the major

  5. Robust Hinf control of uncertain switched systems defined on polyhedral sets with Filippov solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmadi, Mohamadreza; Mojallali, Hamed; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the control problem of a class of uncertain switched systems defined on polyhedral sets known as piecewise linear systems where, instead of the conventional Carathe ́odory solutions, Filippov solutions are studied. In other words, in contrast to the previous studies, solutions...

  6. The effect of grain size and cement content on index properties of weakly solidified artificial sandstones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atapour, Hadi; Mortazavi, Ali

    2018-04-01

    The effects of textural characteristics, especially grain size, on index properties of weakly solidified artificial sandstones are studied. For this purpose, a relatively large number of laboratory tests were carried out on artificial sandstones that were produced in the laboratory. The prepared samples represent fifteen sandstone types consisting of five different median grain sizes and three different cement contents. Indices rock properties including effective porosity, bulk density, point load strength index, and Schmidt hammer values (SHVs) were determined. Experimental results showed that the grain size has significant effects on index properties of weakly solidified sandstones. The porosity of samples is inversely related to the grain size and decreases linearly as grain size increases. While a direct relationship was observed between grain size and dry bulk density, as bulk density increased with increasing median grain size. Furthermore, it was observed that the point load strength index and SHV of samples increased as a result of grain size increase. These observations are indirectly related to the porosity decrease as a function of median grain size.

  7. Non-fragile robust stabilization and H{sub {infinity}} control for uncertain stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Jinhui [Department of Automatic Control, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081 (China)], E-mail: jinhuizhang82@gmail.com; Shi Peng [Faculty of Advanced Technology, University of Glamorgan, Pontypridd CF37 1DL (United Kingdom); ILSCM, School of Science and Engineering, Victoria University, Melbourne, Vic. 8001 (Australia); School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia)], E-mail: pshi@glam.ac.uk; Yang Hongjiu [Department of Automatic Control, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081 (China)], E-mail: yanghongjiu@gmail.com

    2009-12-15

    This paper deals with the problem of non-fragile robust stabilization and H{sub {infinity}} control for a class of uncertain stochastic nonlinear time-delay systems. The parametric uncertainties are real time-varying as well as norm bounded. The time-delay factors are unknown and time-varying with known bounds. The aim is to design a memoryless non-fragile state feedback control law such that the closed-loop system is stochastically asymptotically stable in the mean square and the effect of the disturbance input on the controlled output is less than a prescribed level for all admissible parameter uncertainties. New sufficient conditions for the existence of such controllers are presented based on the linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) approach. Numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed techniques.

  8. A (Creative) Portrait of the Uncertain Individual: Self-Uncertainty and Individualism Enhance Creative Generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios, Kimberly; Markman, Keith D; Schroeder, Juliana; Dyczewski, Elizabeth A

    2014-08-01

    Building on findings that self-uncertainty motivates attempts to restore certainty about the self, particularly in ways that highlight one's distinctiveness from others, we show that self-uncertainty, relative to uncertainty in general, increases creative generation among individualists. In Studies 1 to 3, high (but not low) individualists performed better on a creative generation task after being primed with self-uncertainty as opposed to general uncertainty. In Study 4, this effect emerged only among those who were told that the task measured creative as opposed to analytical thinking, suggesting that the positive effects of self-uncertainty on performance are specific to tasks that bolster perceptions of uniqueness. In Study 5, self-uncertain individualists experienced a restoration of self-clarity after being induced to think about themselves as more (vs. less) creative. Implications for compensatory responses to self-uncertainty and factors that influence creativity are discussed. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  9. Navigation of autonomous vehicles for oil spill cleaning in dynamic and uncertain environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xin; Ray, Asok

    2014-04-01

    In the context of oil spill cleaning by autonomous vehicles in dynamic and uncertain environments, this paper presents a multi-resolution algorithm that seamlessly integrates the concepts of local navigation and global navigation based on the sensory information; the objective here is to enable adaptive decision making and online replanning of vehicle paths. The proposed algorithm provides a complete coverage of the search area for clean-up of the oil spills and does not suffer from the problem of having local minima, which is commonly encountered in potential-field-based methods. The efficacy of the algorithm is tested on a high-fidelity player/stage simulator for oil spill cleaning in a harbour, where the underlying oil weathering process is modelled as 2D random-walk particle tracking. A preliminary version of this paper was presented by X. Jin and A. Ray as 'Coverage Control of Autonomous Vehicles for Oil Spill Cleaning in Dynamic and Uncertain Environments', Proceedings of the American Control Conference, Washington, DC, June 2013, pp. 2600-2605.

  10. Partnership Selection Involving Mixed Types of Uncertain Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Ching Ma

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Partnership selection is an important issue in management science. This study proposes a general model based on mixed integer programming and goal-programming analytic hierarchy process (GP-AHP to solve partnership selection problems involving mixed types of uncertain or inconsistent preferences. The proposed approach is designed to deal with crisp, interval, step, fuzzy, or mixed comparison preferences, derive crisp priorities, and improve multiple solution problems. The degree of fulfillment of a decision maker’s preferences is also taken into account. The results show that the proposed approach keeps more solution ratios within the given preferred intervals and yields less deviation. In addition, the proposed approach can treat incomplete preference matrices with flexibility in reducing the number of pairwise comparisons required and can also be conveniently developed into a decision support system.

  11. Probabilistic Graph Layout for Uncertain Network Visualization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Christoph; Nocaj, Arlind; Goertler, Jochen; Deussen, Oliver; Brandes, Ulrik; Weiskopf, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    We present a novel uncertain network visualization technique based on node-link diagrams. Nodes expand spatially in our probabilistic graph layout, depending on the underlying probability distributions of edges. The visualization is created by computing a two-dimensional graph embedding that combines samples from the probabilistic graph. A Monte Carlo process is used to decompose a probabilistic graph into its possible instances and to continue with our graph layout technique. Splatting and edge bundling are used to visualize point clouds and network topology. The results provide insights into probability distributions for the entire network-not only for individual nodes and edges. We validate our approach using three data sets that represent a wide range of network types: synthetic data, protein-protein interactions from the STRING database, and travel times extracted from Google Maps. Our approach reveals general limitations of the force-directed layout and allows the user to recognize that some nodes of the graph are at a specific position just by chance.

  12. Robust adaptive fault-tolerant control for leader-follower flocking of uncertain multi-agent systems with actuator failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Sahar; Haeri, Mohammad

    2017-11-01

    In this work, we study the flocking problem of multi-agent systems with uncertain dynamics subject to actuator failure and external disturbances. By considering some standard assumptions, we propose a robust adaptive fault tolerant protocol for compensating of the actuator bias fault, the partial loss of actuator effectiveness fault, the model uncertainties, and external disturbances. Under the designed protocol, velocity convergence of agents to that of virtual leader is guaranteed while the connectivity preservation of network and collision avoidance among agents are ensured as well. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Gauging Metallicity of Diffuse Gas under an Uncertain Ionizing Radiation Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsiao-Wen; Johnson, Sean D.; Zahedy, Fakhri S.; Rauch, Michael; Mulchaey, John S.

    2017-06-01

    Gas metallicity is a key quantity used to determine the physical conditions of gaseous clouds in a wide range of astronomical environments, including interstellar and intergalactic space. In particular, considerable effort in circumgalactic medium (CGM) studies focuses on metallicity measurements because gas metallicity serves as a critical discriminator for whether the observed heavy ions in the CGM originate in chemically enriched outflows or in more chemically pristine gas accreted from the intergalactic medium. However, because the gas is ionized, a necessary first step in determining CGM metallicity is to constrain the ionization state of the gas which, in addition to gas density, depends on the ultraviolet background radiation field (UVB). While it is generally acknowledged that both the intensity and spectral slope of the UVB are uncertain, the impact of an uncertain spectral slope has not been properly addressed in the literature. This Letter shows that adopting a different spectral slope can result in an order of magnitude difference in the inferred CGM metallicity. Specifically, a harder UVB spectrum leads to a higher estimated gas metallicity for a given set of observed ionic column densities. Therefore, such systematic uncertainties must be folded into the error budget for metallicity estimates of ionized gas. An initial study shows that empirical diagnostics are available for discriminating between hard and soft ionizing spectra. Applying these diagnostics helps reduce the systematic uncertainties in CGM metallicity estimates.

  14. Gauging Metallicity of Diffuse Gas under an Uncertain Ionizing Radiation Field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Hsiao-Wen; Zahedy, Fakhri S. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The University of Chicago, 5640 S Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Johnson, Sean D. [Department of Astrophysics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Rauch, Michael; Mulchaey, John S., E-mail: hchen@oddjob.uchicago.edu [The Observatories of the Carnegie Institution for Science, 813 Santa Barbara Street, Pasadena, CA 91101 (United States)

    2017-06-20

    Gas metallicity is a key quantity used to determine the physical conditions of gaseous clouds in a wide range of astronomical environments, including interstellar and intergalactic space. In particular, considerable effort in circumgalactic medium (CGM) studies focuses on metallicity measurements because gas metallicity serves as a critical discriminator for whether the observed heavy ions in the CGM originate in chemically enriched outflows or in more chemically pristine gas accreted from the intergalactic medium. However, because the gas is ionized, a necessary first step in determining CGM metallicity is to constrain the ionization state of the gas which, in addition to gas density, depends on the ultraviolet background radiation field (UVB). While it is generally acknowledged that both the intensity and spectral slope of the UVB are uncertain, the impact of an uncertain spectral slope has not been properly addressed in the literature. This Letter shows that adopting a different spectral slope can result in an order of magnitude difference in the inferred CGM metallicity. Specifically, a harder UVB spectrum leads to a higher estimated gas metallicity for a given set of observed ionic column densities. Therefore, such systematic uncertainties must be folded into the error budget for metallicity estimates of ionized gas. An initial study shows that empirical diagnostics are available for discriminating between hard and soft ionizing spectra. Applying these diagnostics helps reduce the systematic uncertainties in CGM metallicity estimates.

  15. Effects of physical exercice over corporal fat predictor indexes: corporal mass index, waist-hip proportion and cutaneous folds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albertino de Oliveira Filho

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to verify alterations in corporal fat amount prediction indexes as a consequence of physical exercise, in assiduous individuals of programs offered in academies in the city of Maringá, state of Paraná, Brazil. The sample consisted of 68 subjects who practiced swimming, water aerobics, gymnastics or muscular exercice, being 38 women (age 29±6 years and 30 men (age 28±8 years. The data was collected during the year of 2000. According to the results, both groups showed significant decrease of the variables related to corporal fat prediction (fat percentage, corporal mass index, waist-hip proportion and significant increase in the thin corporal mass, independent of the exercise modality, allowing the conclusion that, besides aesthetic effects, physical exercises precticed with regularity and continuity act positively on aspects related to the individual's life quality, bringing him/her closer to ideal health standards.

  16. A design control structure for architectural firms in a highly complex and uncertain situation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schijlen, J.T.H.A.M.; Otter, den A.F.H.J.; Pels, H.J.

    2011-01-01

    A large architectural firm in a highly complex and uncertain production situation asked to improve its existing ?production control? system for design projects. To that account a research and design project of nine months at the spot was defined. The production control in the organization was based

  17. Interval type-2 fuzzy PID controller for uncertain nonlinear inverted pendulum system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Bardini, Mohammad; El-Nagar, Ahmad M

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, the interval type-2 fuzzy proportional-integral-derivative controller (IT2F-PID) is proposed for controlling an inverted pendulum on a cart system with an uncertain model. The proposed controller is designed using a new method of type-reduction that we have proposed, which is called the simplified type-reduction method. The proposed IT2F-PID controller is able to handle the effect of structure uncertainties due to the structure of the interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (IT2-FLS). The results of the proposed IT2F-PID controller using a new method of type-reduction are compared with the other proposed IT2F-PID controller using the uncertainty bound method and the type-1 fuzzy PID controller (T1F-PID). The simulation and practical results show that the performance of the proposed controller is significantly improved compared with the T1F-PID controller. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. ABC Classification of Risk Factors in Production Supply Chains with Uncertain Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Vujović

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of classification of risk factors in an uncertain environment is part of the risk management problem, which has a critical effect on the competitive advantage of production supply chain. The severities of consequences, their relative importance, and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are defined by risk management team, depending on their experience and the results of good practice. Fuzzy rating of the severities of consequences and the frequency of occurrence of risk factors are described by linguistic expressions, which are modeled by triangular fuzzy numbers. The risk values, obtained by the materialization of the identified risk factors, are given precisely with the usage of fuzzy algebra rules. The classification criterion is defined as the distance between current risk value and extreme risk values. The proposed model enables determination of the priorities of risk factors. It is illustrated by an example with real-life data from a production supply chain in auto industry.

  19. The effect of soil moisture on the 37 GHz microwave polarization difference index (MPDI)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Felde, G.W.

    1998-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that the 37 GHz microwave polarization difference index (MPDI) has an inverse nonlinear relationship to the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with the MPDI (NDVI) being more sensitive to vegetation density under sparse (moderate) vegetation conditions. It has also been noted that soil moisture can have a significant influence on the MPDI. This study quantifies the effect of soil moisture on the MPDI using the RADTRAN model and comparison with measurements from a few geographically restricted (eastern USA) study sites. Model results show the MPDI increases with soil moisture but its sensitivity approaches zero when soil moisture values or vegetation densities are large. Results based on special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) measured values of MPDI, using the NDVI as a surrogate for vegetation density and an antecedent precipitation index (API) as a surrogate for soil moisture, were consistent with those based on the model. Linear equations, one for each of three categories of vegetation density, expressing MPDI as a function of API were derived based on SSM/I measurements. These equations demonstrate that soil moisture information can be extracted from the MPDI when the NDVI is used to account for the effect of vegetation and that the effect of soil moisture on the MPDI should be taken into account if it is to be used as a vegetation index. The potential to normalize MPDI values for variations in soil moisture is discussed. (author)

  20. Fourier phasing with phase-uncertain mask

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fannjiang, Albert; Liao, Wenjing

    2013-01-01

    Fourier phasing is the problem of retrieving Fourier phase information from Fourier intensity data. The standard Fourier phase retrieval (without a mask) is known to have many solutions which cause the standard phasing algorithms to stagnate and produce wrong or inaccurate solutions. In this paper Fourier phase retrieval is carried out with the introduction of a randomly fabricated mask in measurement and reconstruction. Highly probable uniqueness of solution, up to a global phase, was previously proved with exact knowledge of the mask. Here the uniqueness result is extended to the case where only rough information about the mask’s phases is assumed. The exponential probability bound for uniqueness is given in terms of the uncertainty-to-diversity ratio of the unknown mask. New phasing algorithms alternating between the object update and the mask update are systematically tested and demonstrated to have the capability of recovering both the object and the mask (within the object support) simultaneously, consistent with the uniqueness result. Phasing with a phase-uncertain mask is shown to be robust with respect to the correlation in the mask as well as the Gaussian and Poisson noises. (paper)

  1. Risk assessment of salt contamination of groundwater under uncertain aquifer properties

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander; Keyes, David E.; Logashenko, Dmitry; Tempone, Raul; Wittum, Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    requires a mesh with ~8M grid points and 1500 or more time steps. 200 scenarios are computed concurrently. The total number of cores in parallel computation is 200x32=6400. The main goal of this work is to estimate propagation of uncertainties through the model, to investigate sensitivity of the solution to the input uncertain parameters. Additionally, we demonstrate how the multigrid ug4-based solver can be applied as a black-box in the uncertainty quantification framework.

  2. Chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems using composite nonlinear feedback based integral sliding mode control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobayen, Saleh

    2018-06-01

    This paper proposes a combination of composite nonlinear feedback and integral sliding mode techniques for fast and accurate chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems with Lipschitz nonlinear functions, time-varying delays and disturbances. The composite nonlinear feedback method allows accurate following of the master chaotic system and the integral sliding mode control provides invariance property which rejects the perturbations and preserves the stability of the closed-loop system. Based on the Lyapunov- Krasovskii stability theory and linear matrix inequalities, a novel sufficient condition is offered for the chaos synchronization of uncertain chaotic systems. This method not only guarantees the robustness against perturbations and time-delays, but also eliminates reaching phase and avoids chattering problem. Simulation results demonstrate that the suggested procedure leads to a great control performance. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The estimation of body mass index and physical attractiveness is dependent on the observer's own body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tovée, M J; Emery, J L; Cohen-Tovée, E M

    2000-01-01

    A disturbance in the evaluation of personal body mass and shape is a key feature of both anorexia and bulimia nervosa. However, it is uncertain whether overestimation is a causal factor in the development of these eating disorders or is merely a secondary effect of having a low body mass. Moreover, does this overestimation extend to the perception of other people's bodies? Since body mass is an important factor in the perception of physical attractiveness, we wanted to determine whether this putative overestimation of self body mass extended to include the perceived attractiveness of others. We asked 204 female observers (31 anorexic, 30 bulimic and 143 control) to estimate the body mass and rate the attractiveness of a set of 25 photographic images showing people of varying body mass index (BMI). BMI is a measure of weight scaled for height (kg m(- 2)). The observers also estimated their own BMI. Anorexic and bulimic observers systematically overestimated the body mass of both their own and other people's bodies, relative to controls, and they rated a significantly lower body mass to be optimally attractive. When the degree of overestimation is plotted against the BMI of the observer there is a strong correlation. Taken across all our observers, as the BMI of the observer declines, the overestimation of body mass increases. One possible explanation for this result is that the overestimation is a secondary effect caused by weight loss. Moreover, if the degree of body mass overestimation is taken into account, then there are no significant differences in the perceptions of attractiveness between anorexic and bulimic observers and control observers. Our results suggest a significant perceptual overestimation of BMI that is based on the observer's own BMI and not correlated with cognitive factors, and suggests that this overestimation in eating-disordered patients must be addressed directly in treatment regimes. PMID:11075712

  4. Impact reduction of the uncertain geometrical parameters on magnetic material identification of an EI electromagnetic inductor using an adaptive inverse algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdallh, A.; Crevecoeur, G.; Dupré, L.

    2012-01-01

    The magnetic characteristics of the electromagnetic devices' core materials can be recovered by solving an inverse problem, where sets of measurements need to be properly interpreted using a forward numerical model of the device. However, the uncertainties of the geometrical parameter values in the forward model lead to appreciable recovery errors in the recovered values of the material parameters. In this paper, we propose an effective inverse approach technique, in which the influences of the uncertainties in the geometrical model parameters are minimized. In this proposed approach, the cost function that needs to be minimized is adapted with respect to the uncertain geometrical model parameters. The proposed methodology is applied onto the identification of the magnetizing B–H curve of the magnetic material of an EI core inductor. The numerical results show a significant reduction of the recovery errors in the identified magnetic material parameter values. Moreover, the proposed methodology is validated by solving an inverse problem starting from real magnetic measurements. - Highlights: ► A new method to minimize the influence of the uncertain parameters in inverse problems is proposed. ► The technique is based on adapting iteratively the objective function that needs to be minimized. ► The objective function is adapted by the model response sensitivity to the uncertain parameters. ► The proposed technique is applied for recovering the B–H curve of an EI core inductor material. ► The error in the inverse problem solution is dramatically reduced using the proposed methodology.

  5. H∞ control for uncertain linear system over networks with Bernoulli data dropout and actuator saturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jimin; Yang, Chenchen; Tang, Xiaoming; Wang, Ping

    2018-03-01

    This paper investigates the H ∞ control problems for uncertain linear system over networks with random communication data dropout and actuator saturation. The random data dropout process is modeled by a Bernoulli distributed white sequence with a known conditional probability distribution and the actuator saturation is confined in a convex hull by introducing a group of auxiliary matrices. By constructing a quadratic Lyapunov function, effective conditions for the state feedback-based H ∞ controller and the observer-based H ∞ controller are proposed in the form of non-convex matrix inequalities to take the random data dropout and actuator saturation into consideration simultaneously, and the problem of non-convex feasibility is solved by applying cone complementarity linearization (CCL) procedure. Finally, two simulation examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed new design techniques. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Fuzzy Adaptive Compensation Control of Uncertain Stochastic Nonlinear Systems With Actuator Failures and Input Hysteresis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianhui; Liu, Zhi; Chen, C L Philip; Zhang, Yun

    2017-10-12

    Hysteresis exists ubiquitously in physical actuators. Besides, actuator failures/faults may also occur in practice. Both effects would deteriorate the transient tracking performance, and even trigger instability. In this paper, we consider the problem of compensating for actuator failures and input hysteresis by proposing a fuzzy control scheme for stochastic nonlinear systems. Compared with the existing research on stochastic nonlinear uncertain systems, it is found that how to guarantee a prescribed transient tracking performance when taking into account actuator failures and hysteresis simultaneously also remains to be answered. Our proposed control scheme is designed on the basis of the fuzzy logic system and backstepping techniques for this purpose. It is proven that all the signals remain bounded and the tracking error is ensured to be within a preestablished bound with the failures of hysteretic actuator. Finally, simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.

  7. Effect of talker and speaking style on the Speech Transmission Index (L)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaarden, S.J. van; Houtgast, T.

    2004-01-01

    The Speech Transmission Index (STI) is routinely applied for predicting the intelligibility of messages (sentences) in noise and reverberation. Despite clear evidence that the STI is capable of doing so accurately, recent results indicate that the STI sometimes underestimates the effect of

  8. Effect of glycemic index on obesity control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Elisângela Vitoriano; Costa, Jorge de Assis; Alfenas, Rita de Cássia Gonçalves

    2015-06-01

    Evaluate the effect of glycemic index (GI) on biochemical parameters, food intake, energy metabolism, anthropometric measures and body composition in overweight subjects. Simple blind study, in which nineteen subjects were randomly assigned to consume in the laboratory two daily low GI (n = 10) or high GI (n = 9) meals, for forty-five consecutive days. Habitual food intake was assessed at baseline. Food intake, anthropometric measures and body composition were assessed at each 15 days. Energy metabolism and biochemical parameters were evaluated at baseline and the end of the study. Low GI meals increased fat oxidation, and reduced waist circumference and HOMA-IR, while high GI meals increased daily dietary fiber and energy intake compared to baseline. There was a higher reduction on waist circumference and body fat, and a higher increase on postprandial fat oxidation in response to the LGI meals than after high GI meals. High GI meals increased fasting respiratory coefficient compared to baseline and low GI meals. The results of the present study showed that the consumption of two daily low GI meals for forty-five consecutive days has a positive effect on obesity control, whereas, the consumption of high GI meals result has the opposite effect.

  9. INDEXING AND INDEX FUNDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HAKAN SARITAŞ

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis believe that active portfolio management is largely wasted effort and unlikely to justify the expenses incurred. Therefore, they advocate a passive investment strategy that makes no attempt to outsmart the market. One common strategy for passive management is indexing where a fund is designed to replicate the performance of a broad-based index of stocks and bonds. Traditionally, indexing was used by institutional investors, but today, the use of index funds proliferated among individual investors. Over the years, both international and domestic index funds have disproportionately outperformed the market more than the actively managed funds have.

  10. Minimizing the regrets of long-term urban floodplain management decisions under deeply uncertain climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, J. S.; Kirshen, P. H.; Vogel, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Making long-term floodplain management decisions under uncertain climate change is a major urban planning challenge of the 21stcentury. To support these efforts, we introduce a screening-level optimization model that identifies adaptation portfolios by minimizing the regrets associated with their flood-control and damage costs under different climate change trajectories that are deeply uncertain, i.e. have probabilities that cannot be specified plausibly. This mixed integer program explicitly considers the coupled damage-reduction impacts of different floodwall designs and property-scale investments (first-floor elevation, wet floodproofing of basements, permanent retreat and insurance), recommends implementation schedules, and assesses impacts to stakeholders residing in three types of homes. An application to a stylized municipality illuminates many nonlinear system dynamics stemming from large fixed capital costs, infrastructure design thresholds, and discharge-depth-damage relationships. If stakeholders tolerate mild damage, floodwalls that fully protect a community from large design events are less cost-effective than portfolios featuring both smaller floodwalls and property-scale measures. Potential losses of property tax revenue from permanent retreat motivate municipal property-tax initiatives for adaptation financing. Yet, insurance incentives for first-floor elevation may discourage locally financed floodwalls, in turn making lower-income residents more vulnerable to severe flooding. A budget constraint analysis underscores the benefits of flexible floodwall designs with low incremental expansion costs while near-optimal solutions demonstrate the scheduling flexibility of many property-scale measures. Finally, an equity analysis shows the importance of evaluating the overpayment and under-design regrets of recommended adaptation portfolios for each stakeholder and contrasts them to single-scenario model results.

  11. Natural history of severe eosinophilia with uncertain aetiology and proposals on a practical approach to its management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ang, A L; Wong, R X; Zhuang, Q Y; Linn, Y C

    2012-08-01

    Eosinophilia is commonly encountered during clinical practice. Some can be attributed to well-defined causes while others cannot. Optimal management of hypereosinophilia with unknown aetiology is uncertain as the natural history is not well described. We retrospectively studied patients with hypereosinophilia (>5 × 10(9)/L) and described the characteristics, natural history and treatment of those with eosinophilia of uncertain aetiology. There were 141 patients with hypereosinophilia: 87 with well-defined causes, 54 with uncertain aetiology. The latter was managed as hypereosinophilic syndrome (HES) (n = 5), idiopathic hypereosinophilia (IH) (n = 11), presumptive helminthic infection (n = 11) and reactive eosinophilia (n = 5), while 22 were insufficiently investigated and did not have definite working diagnoses. Their median age and peak eosinophil count were 64 (22 to 94) years and 10.0 (5.2-33.9) × 10(9)/L respectively. Forty-six per cent had symptoms attributable to eosinophilia, with the HES and insufficiently investigated groups having the highest (100%) and lowest (27%) percentages respectively. HES and IH patients were most extensively investigated. All 14 HES or IH patients who received steroids responded. All presumptive helminthic infection patients received mebendazole: nine responded, and two had unassessable responses. For the remaining patients, seven received steroids and all responded; one received mebendazole but defaulted; 19 were not treated: 11 resolved spontaneously. No non-HES patients developed eosinophilia-related organ dysfunction. No mortality was caused by hypereosinophilia. Patients with hypereosinophilia of uncertain aetiology can be empirically managed according to working diagnoses derived from history taking, examination and selective investigations. Most patients have benign short-term outcomes, but longer monitoring is required to assess long-term outcomes from untreated hypereosinophilia. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine

  12. Effect of Body Mass Index (BMI) On Degree of Angular Knee ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aetiology of Blount\\'s disease remains unknown, but it is generally agreed that weight bearing plays a role in the pathogenesis of knee deformity in these patients. Our aim was to analyze the effect of Body Mass Index (BMI) on the degree of angular knee deformity in children with clinical and radiological features of ...

  13. Chernobyl, the true, the false and the uncertain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-04-01

    This work makes the part between the true and the false information in France about the Chernobyl accident that have been read in different newspapers during the last years. This document is divide in three parts: what is true, what is false, what is uncertain. In each part are noticed extracts from newspapers face to the synthesis of thoughts about them. It is the fourth edition, the first one was in April 1990, the second one was in 1992 after a report from IAEA on the radiological consequences, the third edition was born in 1994 with the emergence of thyroid cancers especially among children, this fourth edition of 1996 takes into account the sanitary report given by the World Health Organisation experts in 1995. It confirms the progression of thyroid cancers and the absence of any other cancer as well leukemia. (N.C.)

  14. Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itagaki, H. [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H.; Ito, S. [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M.

    1996-12-31

    Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Bayesian reliability analysis for non-periodic inspection with estimation of uncertain parameters; Bayesian shinraisei kaiseki wo tekiyoshita hiteiki kozo kensa ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Itagaki, H [Yokohama National University, Yokohama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering; Asada, H; Ito, S [National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo (Japan); Shinozuka, M

    1997-12-31

    Risk assessed structural positions in a pressurized fuselage of a transport-type aircraft applied with damage tolerance design are taken up as the subject of discussion. A small number of data obtained from inspections on the positions was used to discuss the Bayesian reliability analysis that can estimate also a proper non-periodic inspection schedule, while estimating proper values for uncertain factors. As a result, time period of generating fatigue cracks was determined according to procedure of detailed visual inspections. The analysis method was found capable of estimating values that are thought reasonable and the proper inspection schedule using these values, in spite of placing the fatigue crack progress expression in a very simple form and estimating both factors as the uncertain factors. Thus, the present analysis method was verified of its effectiveness. This study has discussed at the same time the structural positions, modeling of fatigue cracks generated and develop in the positions, conditions for destruction, damage factors, and capability of the inspection from different viewpoints. This reliability analysis method is thought effective also on such other structures as offshore structures. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Effect of imaging time on the values of the sacroiliac index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodig, D.; Domljan, Z.; Popovic, S.; Simonovic, I.; Zagreb Univ.

    1988-01-01

    Quantitative scintigraphy of the sacroiliac joints was performed in a group of normal subjects and a group of subjects with unilateral and bilateral sacroiliitis. The aim of the study was to determine whether the time intervals of imaging had any effect on the values of the sacroiliac index. Imaging was performed every 30 min up to 300 min and the indices were calculated at the time intervals mentioned. We found that the values of the sacroiliac index increased in the group of normal subjects until 150 min after the application of the radiopharmaceutical, and that in the group of subjects who had sacroiliitis they increased until 210 min. The results show that the time interval optimal to quantitative sacroiliac joint imaging is at least 3 1/2 h after administration of the radiopharmaceutical. (orig.)

  17. Corporate Sustainability Indexes: FTSE 4 Good Index Report on Nestle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gülay Keskin

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Corporate sustainability and economic business activities are focused on the social and environmental impacts. In this sense, the economic activity created by the businesses is to pursue social and environmental impacts, and producing information related to these effects is essential for the formation of structure for a sustainable business. Sustainability indices are structures edited on first generation sustainability indicators, which are structures constructed in order to share information with consumers and businesses. The most important benefits are improvements in transparency without the need for regulation of the sustainability index, better understanding of the social and environmental impact of companies and the guidance for arrangements to minimize the negative side effects of company activities. FTSE4Good is a responsible investment index designed to help investors identify companies that meet globally recognised corporate responsibility standards. It is the only index of its kind since it includes specific criteria on the responsible marketing of breast milk substitutes.

  18. Robust Stability and Stabilization of Interval Uncertain Descriptor Fractional-Order Systems with the Fractional-Order α: The 1≤α<2 Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanhua Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Stability and stabilization of fractional-order interval system is investigated. By adding parameters to linear matrix inequalities, necessary and sufficient conditions for stability and stabilization of the system are obtained. The results on stability check for uncertain FO-LTI systems with interval coefficients of dimension n only need to solve one 4n-by-4n LMI. Numerical examples are presented to shown the effectiveness of our results.

  19. Implementation on Electronic Circuits and RTR Pragmatical Adaptive Synchronization: Time-Reversed Uncertain Dynamical Systems' Analysis and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shih-Yu Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We expose the chaotic attractors of time-reversed nonlinear system, further implement its behavior on electronic circuit, and apply the pragmatical asymptotically stability theory to strictly prove that the adaptive synchronization of given master and slave systems with uncertain parameters can be achieved. In this paper, the variety chaotic motions of time-reversed Lorentz system are investigated through Lyapunov exponents, phase portraits, and bifurcation diagrams. For further applying the complex signal in secure communication and file encryption, we construct the circuit to show the similar chaotic signal of time-reversed Lorentz system. In addition, pragmatical asymptotically stability theorem and an assumption of equal probability for ergodic initial conditions (Ge et al., 1999, Ge and Yu, 2000, and Matsushima, 1972 are proposed to strictly prove that adaptive control can be accomplished successfully. The current scheme of adaptive control—by traditional Lyapunov stability theorem and Barbalat lemma, which are used to prove the error vector—approaches zero, as time approaches infinity. However, the core question—why the estimated or given parameters also approach to the uncertain parameters—remains without answer. By the new stability theory, those estimated parameters can be proved approaching the uncertain values strictly, and the simulation results are shown in this paper.

  20. A New Fast Nonsingular Terminal Sliding Mode Control for a Class of Second-Order Uncertain Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linjie Xin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the robust and adaptive nonsingular terminal sliding mode (NTSM control for a class of second-order uncertain systems. First, a new fast NTSM was proposed which had global fast convergence rate in the sliding phase. Then, a new form of robust NTSM controller was designed to handle a wider class of second-order uncertain systems. Moreover, an exponential-decline switching gain was introduced for chattering suppression. After that, a double sliding surfaces control scheme was constructed to combine the NTSM control with the adaptive technique. The benefit is that a strict demonstration can be given for the stagnation problem in the stability analysis of NTSM. Finally, a case study for tracking control of a variable-length pendulum was performed to verify the proposed controllers.

  1. Genotype-covariate interaction effects and the heritability of adult body mass index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, Matthew R.; English, Geoffrey; Moser, Gerhard; Lloyd-Jones, Luke R; Triplett, Marcus A; Zhu, Zhihong; Nolte, Ilja M; van Vliet-Ostaptchouk, Jana V; Snieder, Harold; Esko, Tonu; Milani, Lili; Mägi, Reedik; Metspalu, Andres; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Ingelsson, Erik; Johannesson, Magnus; Yang, Jian; Cesarini, David; Visscher, Peter M.

    Obesity is a worldwide epidemic, with major health and economic costs. Here we estimate heritability for body mass index (BMI) in 172,000 sibling pairs and 150,832 unrelated individuals and explore the contribution of genotype-covariate interaction effects at common SNP loci. We find evidence for

  2. Atmospheric effects on the NDVI - Strategies for its removal. [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Y. J.; Tanre, D.; Holben, B. N.; Markham, B.; Gitelson, A.

    1992-01-01

    The compositing technique used to derive global vegetation index (NDVI) from the NOAA AVHRR radiances reduces the residual effect of water vapor and aerosol on the NDVI. The reduction in the atmospheric effect is shown using a comprehensive measured data set for desert conditions, and a simulation for grass with continental aerosol. A statistical analaysis of the probability of occurrence of aerosol optical thickness and precipitable water vapor measured in different climatic regimes is used for this simulation. It is concluded that for a long compositing period (e.g., 27 days), the residual aerosol optical thickness and precipitable water vapor are usually too small to be corrected. For a 9-day compositing, the residual average aerosol effect may be about twice the correction uncertainty. For Landsat TM or Earth Observing System Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (EOS-MODIS) data, the newly defined atmospherically resistant vegetation index (ARVI) is more promising than possible direct atmospheric correction schemes, except for heavy desert dust conditions.

  3. Air quality trends and potential health effects - Development of an aggregate risk index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Lesne, Olivia; Alexandre, Nicolas; Mangin, Antoine; Collomp, Rémy

    2011-02-01

    The "Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur" (PACA) region, in the South East of France, is one of Europe's regions most influenced by the atmospheric pollution. During the last 15 years, the industrial emissions decrease caused an evolution of the atmospheric pollution nature. Nowadays, atmospheric pollution is more and more influenced by the road traffic, the dominating pollution source in urban zones for the PACA region. Combined with this intense road traffic, the strong hot season of the Mediterranean climate contributes to the region bad air quality; it is known to be one of the worse in Europe. The recognized air pollution effects over public health include increased risk of hospital admissions and mortality by respiratory or cardiovascular diseases. The combination of these serious pollution related health hazards with senior and children vulnerabilities leads to serious sanitary concerns. Over the 1990-2005 period, we obtained, using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test from annual mortality dataset (CépiDC), decreasing trends for Asthma (-5.00% year -1), Cardiovascular (-0.73% year -1), Ischemic (-0.69% year -1) and cerebrovascular diseases (-3.10% year -1). However, for "Other heart diseases" (+0.10% year -1) and "Respiratory" (+0.10% year -1) an increase was observed. The development of an adequate tool to understand impacts of pollution levels is of utmost importance. Different pollutants have different health endpoints, information may be lost through the use of a single index consequently, in this study we present the modified formula of air quality index, based on Cairncross's concept the Aggregate Risk Index (ARI). ARI is based on the relative risk of the well-established increased daily mortality, or morbidity, enabling an assessment of additive effects of short-term exposure to the main air pollutants: PM 2.5, PM 10, SO 2, O 3 and NO 2 in order to account for the reality of the multiple exposures impacts of chemical agents. The ARI, developed per pathology

  4. Dynamical Scheduling and Robust Control in Uncertain Environments with Petri Nets for DESs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitri Lefebvre

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is about the incremental computation of control sequences for discrete event systems in uncertain environments where uncontrollable events may occur. Timed Petri nets are used for this purpose. The aim is to drive the marking of the net from an initial value to a reference one, in minimal or near-minimal time, by avoiding forbidden markings, deadlocks, and dead branches. The approach is similar to model predictive control with a finite set of control actions. At each step only a small area of the reachability graph is explored: this leads to a reasonable computational complexity. The robustness of the resulting trajectory is also evaluated according to a risk probability. A sufficient condition is provided to compute robust trajectories. The proposed results are applicable to a large class of discrete event systems, in particular in the domains of flexible manufacturing. However, they are also applicable to other domains as communication, computer science, transportation, and traffic as long as the considered systems admit Petri Nets (PNs models. They are suitable for dynamical deadlock-free scheduling and reconfiguration problems in uncertain environments.

  5. Output Feedback Adaptive Dynamic Surface Control of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor with Uncertain Time Delays via RBFNN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaohua Luo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on an adaptive dynamic surface control based on the Radial Basis Function Neural Network for a fourth-order permanent magnet synchronous motor system wherein the unknown parameters, disturbances, chaos, and uncertain time delays are presented. Neural Network systems are used to approximate the nonlinearities and an adaptive law is employed to estimate accurate parameters. Then, a simple and effective controller has been obtained by introducing dynamic surface control technique on the basis of first-order filters. Asymptotically tracking stability in the sense of uniformly ultimate boundedness is achieved in a short time. Finally, the performance of the proposed control has been illustrated through simulation results.

  6. Fuzzy Backstepping Sliding Mode Control for Mismatched Uncertain System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Q. Hou

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Sliding mode controllers have succeeded in many control problems that the conventional control theories have difficulties to deal with; however it is practically impossible to achieve high-speed switching control. Therefore, in this paper an adaptive fuzzy backstepping sliding mode control scheme is derived for mismatched uncertain systems. Firstly fuzzy sliding mode controller is designed using backstepping method based on the Lyapunov function approach, which is capable of handling mismatched problem. Then fuzzy sliding mode controller is designed using T-S fuzzy model method, it can improve the performance of the control systems and their robustness. Finally this method of control is applied to nonlinear system as a case study; simulation results are also provided the performance of the proposed controller.

  7. Multilateral Telecoordinated Control of Multiple Robots With Uncertain Kinematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhai, Di-Hua; Xia, Yuanqing

    2017-06-06

    This paper addresses the telecoordinated control of multiple robots in the simultaneous presence of asymmetric time-varying delays, nonpassive external forces, and uncertain kinematics/dynamics. To achieve the control objective, a neuroadaptive controller with utilizing prescribed performance control and switching control technique is developed, where the basic idea is to employ the concept of motion synchronization in each pair of master-slave robots and among all slave robots. By using the multiple Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals method, the state-independent input-to-output practical stability of the closed-loop system is established. Compared with the previous approaches, the new design is straightforward and easier to implement and is applicable to a wider area. Simulation results on three pairs of three degrees-of-freedom robots confirm the theoretical findings.

  8. Uncertain but able: Entrepreneurial self-efficacy and novices׳ use of expert decision-logic under uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engel, Y.; Dimitrova, N.G.; Khapova, S.N.; Elfring, T.

    2014-01-01

    Entrepreneurs' initial strategy choices are made in the face of inherently uncertain and fundamentally unpredictable futures. Yet, unlike experts, novice entrepreneurs still tend to rely on predictions and forecasts as they move their ideas through t h e venture creation process. This study examines

  9. Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.; Kok, K.

    2015-01-01

    Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted

  10. Social accounting matrix and the effects of economic reform on health price index and household expenditures: Evidence from Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshavarz, Khosro; Najafi, Behzad; Andayesh, Yaghob; Rezapour, Aziz; Abolhallaj, Masoud; Sarabi Asiabar, Ali; Hashemi Meshkini, Amir; Sanati, Ehsan; Mirian, Iman; Nikfar, Shekoofeh; Lotfi, Farhad

    2017-01-01

    Background: Socioeconomic indicators are the main factors that affect health outcome. Health price index (HPI) and households living costs (HLC) are affected by economic reform. This study aimed at examining the effect of subsidy targeting plan (STP) on HPI and HLC. Methods: The social accounting matrix was used to study the direct and indirect effects of STP. We chose 11 health related goods and services including insurance, compulsory social security services, hospital services, medical and dental services, other human health services, veterinary services, social services, environmental health services, laundry& cleaning and dyeing services, cosmetic and physical health services, and pharmaceutical products in the social accounting matrix to examine the health price index. Data were analyzed by the I-O&SAM software. Results: Due to the subsidy release on energy, water, and bread prices, we found that (i) health related goods and services groups' price index rose between 33.43% and 77.3%, (ii) the living cost index of urban households increased between 48.75% and 58.21%, and (iii) the living cost index of rural households grew between 53.51% and 68.23%. The results demonstrated that the elimination of subsidy would have negative effects on health subdivision and households' costs such that subsidy elimination increased the health prices index and the household living costs, especially among low-income families. The STP had considerable effects on health subdivision price index. Conclusion: The elimination or reduction of energy carriers and basic commodities subsidies have changed health price and households living cost index. Therefore, the policymakers should consider controlling the price of health sectors, price fluctuations and shocks.

  11. Characterization of Fabricated Photonic Crystal Fibers Using Effective Index Method

    OpenAIRE

    Faramarz E. Seraji

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the characteristics of photonic crystal fibers (PCFs), which have been experimentally determined in the last few years in Iran's Telecom Research Center are analyzed and compared theoretically using an effective index method. The PCFs under investigation are fabricated with a high speed drawing process that has not yet been reported elsewhere. It was shown that at higher wavelengths in PCFs; the light field is confined in the core where in shorter wavelengths the field spread...

  12. Robust optimization model and algorithm for railway freight center location problem in uncertain environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xing-Cai; He, Shi-Wei; Song, Rui; Sun, Yang; Li, Hao-Dong

    2014-01-01

    Railway freight center location problem is an important issue in railway freight transport programming. This paper focuses on the railway freight center location problem in uncertain environment. Seeing that the expected value model ignores the negative influence of disadvantageous scenarios, a robust optimization model was proposed. The robust optimization model takes expected cost and deviation value of the scenarios as the objective. A cloud adaptive clonal selection algorithm (C-ACSA) was presented. It combines adaptive clonal selection algorithm with Cloud Model which can improve the convergence rate. Design of the code and progress of the algorithm were proposed. Result of the example demonstrates the model and algorithm are effective. Compared with the expected value cases, the amount of disadvantageous scenarios in robust model reduces from 163 to 21, which prove the result of robust model is more reliable.

  13. Robust Optimization Model and Algorithm for Railway Freight Center Location Problem in Uncertain Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing-cai Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Railway freight center location problem is an important issue in railway freight transport programming. This paper focuses on the railway freight center location problem in uncertain environment. Seeing that the expected value model ignores the negative influence of disadvantageous scenarios, a robust optimization model was proposed. The robust optimization model takes expected cost and deviation value of the scenarios as the objective. A cloud adaptive clonal selection algorithm (C-ACSA was presented. It combines adaptive clonal selection algorithm with Cloud Model which can improve the convergence rate. Design of the code and progress of the algorithm were proposed. Result of the example demonstrates the model and algorithm are effective. Compared with the expected value cases, the amount of disadvantageous scenarios in robust model reduces from 163 to 21, which prove the result of robust model is more reliable.

  14. uncertain dynamic systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lakshmikantham

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A basic feedback control problem is that of obtaining some desired stability property from a system which contains uncertainties due to unknown inputs into the system. Despite such imperfect knowledge in the selected mathematical model, we often seek to devise controllers that will steer the system in a certain required fashion. Various classes of controllers whose design is based on the method of Lyapunov are known for both discrete [4], [10], [15], and continuous [3–9], [11] models described by difference and differential equations, respectively. Recently, a theory for what is known as dynamic systems on time scales has been built which incorporates both continuous and discrete times, namely, time as an arbitrary closed sets of reals, and allows us to handle both systems simultaneously [1], [2], [12], [13]. This theory permits one to get some insight into and better understanding of the subtle differences between discrete and continuous systems. We shall, in this paper, utilize the framework of the theory of dynamic systems on time scales to investigate the stability properties of conditionally invariant sets which are then applied to discuss controlled systems with uncertain elements. For the notion of conditionally invariant set and its stability properties, see [14]. Our results offer a new approach to the problem in question.

  15. Sensitivity study of steam explosion characteristics to uncertain input parameters using TEXAS-V code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grishchenko, Dmitry; Basso, Simone; Kudinov, Pavel; Bechta, Sevostian

    2014-01-01

    Release of core melt from failed reactor vessel into a pool of water is adopted in several existing designs of light water reactors (LWRs) as an element of severe accident mitigation strategy. Corium melt is expected to fragment, solidify and form a debris bed coolable by natural circulation. However, steam explosion can occur upon melt release threatening containment integrity and potentially leading to large early release of radioactive products to the environment. There are many factors and parameters that could be considered for prediction of the fuel-coolant interaction (FCI) energetics, but it is not clear which of them are the most influential and should be addressed in risk analysis. The goal of this work is to assess importance of different uncertain input parameters used in FCI code TEXAS-V for prediction of the steam explosion energetics. Both aleatory uncertainty in characteristics of melt release scenarios and water pool conditions, and epistemic uncertainty in modeling are considered. Ranges of the uncertain parameters are selected based on the available information about prototypic severe accident conditions in a reference design of a Nordic BWR. Sensitivity analysis with Morris method is implemented using coupled TEXAS-V and DAKOTA codes. In total 12 input parameters were studied and 2 melt release scenarios were considered. Each scenario is based on 60,000 of TEXAS-V runs. Sensitivity study identified the most influential input parameters, and those which have no statistically significant effect on the explosion energetics. Details of approach to robust usage of TEXAS-V input, statistical enveloping of TEXAS-V output and interpretation of the results are discussed in the paper. We also provide probability density function (PDF) of steam explosion impulse estimated using TEXAS-V for reference Nordic BWR. It can be used for assessment of the uncertainty ranges of steam explosion loads for given ranges of input parameters. (author)

  16. Adaptive Control for Linear Uncertain Systems with Unmodeled Dynamics Revisited via Optimal Control Modification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nhan

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the optimal control modification for linear uncertain plants. The Lyapunov analysis shows that the modification parameter has a limiting value depending on the nature of the uncertainty. The optimal control modification exhibits a linear asymptotic property that enables it to be analyzed in a linear time invariant framework for linear uncertain plants. The linear asymptotic property shows that the closed-loop plants in the limit possess a scaled input-output mapping. Using this property, we can derive an analytical closed-loop transfer function in the limit as the adaptive gain tends to infinity. The paper revisits the Rohrs counterexample problem that illustrates the nature of non-robustness of model-reference adaptive control in the presence of unmodeled dynamics. An analytical approach is developed to compute exactly the modification parameter for the optimal control modification that stabilizes the plant in the Rohrs counterexample. The linear asymptotic property is also used to address output feedback adaptive control for non-minimum phase plants with a relative degree 1.

  17. Output Feedback-Based Boundary Control of Uncertain Coupled Semilinear Parabolic PDE Using Neurodynamic Programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talaei, Behzad; Jagannathan, Sarangapani; Singler, John

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, neurodynamic programming-based output feedback boundary control of distributed parameter systems governed by uncertain coupled semilinear parabolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under Neumann or Dirichlet boundary control conditions is introduced. First, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation is formulated in the original PDE domain and the optimal control policy is derived using the value functional as the solution of the HJB equation. Subsequently, a novel observer is developed to estimate the system states given the uncertain nonlinearity in PDE dynamics and measured outputs. Consequently, the suboptimal boundary control policy is obtained by forward-in-time estimation of the value functional using a neural network (NN)-based online approximator and estimated state vector obtained from the NN observer. Novel adaptive tuning laws in continuous time are proposed for learning the value functional online to satisfy the HJB equation along system trajectories while ensuring the closed-loop stability. Local uniformly ultimate boundedness of the closed-loop system is verified by using Lyapunov theory. The performance of the proposed controller is verified via simulation on an unstable coupled diffusion reaction process.

  18. New Algorithm for Evaluating the Green Supply Chain Performance in an Uncertain Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan Liu

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available An effective green supply chain (GSC can help an enterprise obtain more benefits and reduce costs. Therefore, developing an effective evaluation method for GSC performance evaluation is becoming increasingly important. In this study, the advantages and disadvantages of the current performance evaluations and algorithms for GSC performance evaluations were discussed and evaluated. Based on these findings, an improved five-dimensional balanced scorecard was proposed in which the green performance indicators were revised to facilitate their measurement. A model based on Rough Set theory, the Genetic Algorithm, and the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation (LMBP neural network algorithm was proposed. Next, using Matlab, the Rosetta tool, and the practical data of company F, a case study was conducted. The results indicate that the proposed model has a high convergence speed and an accurate prediction ability. The credibility and effectiveness of the proposed model was validated. In comparison with the normal Back Propagation neural network algorithm and the LMBP neural network algorithm, the proposed model has greater credibility and effectiveness. In practice, this method provides a more suitable indicator system and algorithm for enterprises to be able to implement GSC performance evaluations in an uncertain environment. Academically, the proposed method addresses the lack of a theoretical basis for GSC performance evaluation, thus representing a new development in GSC performance evaluation theory.

  19. Landscape architectural research in Canada: developing a certain future in uncertain times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Paterson

    1995-03-01

    Full Text Available LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURAL RESEARCH in Canada is defined by the uncertain and complex global issues of the times, the significant theoretical and methodological debates facing the world of research in general, and the increased academic pressures for research in a less well-funded and more constricting research environment. It is also affected by the political environment in which its few researchers are outnumbered by the larger disciplines and professions which seem to be getting bigger all the time, and by its own internal struggles between its disciplinary and professional roles. Landscape architectural research efforts in Canada are, as such, both vigorous and hesitant, aggressive yet underfunded, well focused yet somewhat uncertain in their ultimate intention. This paper begins with a brief examination of the present context of our research. It next looks at the basic problems that have and continue to plague design research. With these contextual issues established, the paper then recounts a brief history of the profession and its emerging educational-research base in Canada and gives an overview of current research efforts. It concludes by suggesting several important directions that are needed in Canadian landscape architectural research over' the next 10 years. It is hoped that this personal, historical account of research efforts, problems and opportunities in Canada will allow others in the Asia-Pacific region to recognise the similarities to their own situations.

  20. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

  1. Effects of Economic Recession on Road Safety Indexes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rojo, M.; Gonzalo-Orden, H.; Linares, A.; Olio, L. dell’

    2016-07-01

    During the last years, the investment in both construction and conservation of transportinfrastructures has been considerably reduced in several countries, as Spain. After anumber of years in which economic circumstances have forced Governments to reducebudgets earmarked for the maintenance and creation of new ways, it is interesting toanalyze whether this has taken a toll on accident rates.The paper evaluates if there are significant changes in the road safety through these yearsin Spain, comparing the annual statistics concerning investment in infrastructure andaccidents. Thus, the classical risk, mortality and severity indexes have been analyzed tounderstand their real trends. Finally, through linear regression techniques, it is shown howthese trends are related to the budgets invested each year, in order to draw interestingconclusions about the effect of their reduction. (Author)

  2. Orientation effects on indexing of electron backscatter diffraction patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowell, Matthew M.; Wright, Stuart I.

    2005-01-01

    Automated Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) has become a well-accepted technique for characterizing the crystallographic orientation aspects of polycrystalline microstructures. At the advent of this technique, it was observed that patterns obtained from grains in certain crystallographic orientations were more difficult for the automated indexing algorithms to accurately identify than patterns from other orientations. The origin of this problem is often similarities between the EBSD pattern of the correct orientation and patterns from other orientations or phases. While practical solutions have been found and implemented, the identification of these problem orientations generally occurs only after running an automated scan, as problem orientations are often readily apparent in the resulting orientation maps. However, such an approach only finds those problem orientations that are present in the scan area. It would be advantageous to identify all regions of orientation space that may present problems for automated indexing prior to initiating an automated scan, and to minimize this space through the optimization of acquisition and indexing parameters. This work presents new methods for identifying regions in orientation space where the reliability of the automated indexing is suspect prior to performing a scan. This methodology is used to characterize the impact of various parameters on the indexing algorithm

  3. Effect of Entry into Socially Responsible Investment Index on Cost of Equity and Firm Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kijung Eom

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to identify the effect of a company’s incorporation into the Socially Responsible Investment (SRI index on its cost of equity (COE and corporate value. The study collected and analyzed data about the four-year long changes of the component stocks of the Korea Exchange (KRX SRI index from September 2010 to September 2013 to verify the correlation between the incorporation of the SRI index and the cost of equity or corporate value by using the Price-Earnings Growth (PEG, Modified PEG (MPEG and Gode and Mohanram (GM models for estimation of the implied costs of equity capital, as well as Tobin’s Q ratio. The analysis results failed to show any significant relation between the incorporation of the SRI index and the cost of equity capital. Also, no statistically significant correlation between the incorporation of the SRI index and corporate value was observed. However, at an early phase of introduction of the SRI index, the included companies revealed a negative correlation with the cost of equity. However, after changing the listed stocks, they showed a positive correlation with the cost of equity capital. All in all, this can be ascribed to a mixed presence of optimistic and pessimistic investors about CSR activities, or there is a possibility that the KRX SRI index might not correctly reflect the CSR activities of companies.

  4. Tsunami hazard assessments with consideration of uncertain earthquakes characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulveda, I.; Liu, P. L. F.; Grigoriu, M. D.; Pritchard, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainty quantification of tsunami assessments due to uncertain earthquake characteristics faces important challenges. First, the generated earthquake samples must be consistent with the properties observed in past events. Second, it must adopt an uncertainty propagation method to determine tsunami uncertainties with a feasible computational cost. In this study we propose a new methodology, which improves the existing tsunami uncertainty assessment methods. The methodology considers two uncertain earthquake characteristics, the slip distribution and location. First, the methodology considers the generation of consistent earthquake slip samples by means of a Karhunen Loeve (K-L) expansion and a translation process (Grigoriu, 2012), applicable to any non-rectangular rupture area and marginal probability distribution. The K-L expansion was recently applied by Le Veque et al. (2016). We have extended the methodology by analyzing accuracy criteria in terms of the tsunami initial conditions. Furthermore, and unlike this reference, we preserve the original probability properties of the slip distribution, by avoiding post sampling treatments such as earthquake slip scaling. Our approach is analyzed and justified in the framework of the present study. Second, the methodology uses a Stochastic Reduced Order model (SROM) (Grigoriu, 2009) instead of a classic Monte Carlo simulation, which reduces the computational cost of the uncertainty propagation. The methodology is applied on a real case. We study tsunamis generated at the site of the 2014 Chilean earthquake. We generate earthquake samples with expected magnitude Mw 8. We first demonstrate that the stochastic approach of our study generates consistent earthquake samples with respect to the target probability laws. We also show that the results obtained from SROM are more accurate than classic Monte Carlo simulations. We finally validate the methodology by comparing the simulated tsunamis and the tsunami records for

  5. Plastic plate bending problem with friction on the boundary and uncertain input data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváček, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 31, č. 4 (2010), s. 414-439 ISSN 0163-0563 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA100190803 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : anti- optimization * deformation theory of plasticity * Kačanov method * uncertain input data * worst scenario Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.687, year: 2010 http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01630563.2010.483311

  6. Robust Fuzzy Control for Fractional-Order Uncertain Hydroturbine Regulating System with Random Disturbances

    OpenAIRE

    Fengjiao Wu; Guitao Zhang; Zhengzhong Wang

    2016-01-01

    The robust fuzzy control for fractional-order hydroturbine regulating system is studied in this paper. First, the more practical fractional-order hydroturbine regulating system with uncertain parameters and random disturbances is presented. Then, on the basis of interval matrix theory and fractional-order stability theorem, a fuzzy control method is proposed for fractional-order hydroturbine regulating system, and the stability condition is expressed as a group of linear matrix inequalities. ...

  7. Cooperative learning neural network output feedback control of uncertain nonlinear multi-agent systems under directed topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Wang, D.; Peng, Z. H.

    2017-09-01

    Without assuming that the communication topologies among the neural network (NN) weights are to be undirected and the states of each agent are measurable, the cooperative learning NN output feedback control is addressed for uncertain nonlinear multi-agent systems with identical structures in strict-feedback form. By establishing directed communication topologies among NN weights to share their learned knowledge, NNs with cooperative learning laws are employed to identify the uncertainties. By designing NN-based κ-filter observers to estimate the unmeasurable states, a new cooperative learning output feedback control scheme is proposed to guarantee that the system outputs can track nonidentical reference signals with bounded tracking errors. A simulation example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.

  8. The pan-European environment: glimpses into an uncertain future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The rapidly changing nature of and increasing inter-linkages between many socio-economic phenomena - population growth and migration, globalisation and trade, personal consumption patterns and use of natural resources . are reflected in many of today's environment policy priorities: minimising and adapting to climate change; loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services; the degradation of such natural resources as land, freshwater and oceans; and the impacts of a wide range of pollutants on our environment and our health. The challenges that environmental policy makers are facing in this century are already very different from those of the last. Given the rapid change in socio.economic trends, both designing and implementing actions are becoming much more complex, and the way in which such policies deliver effective outcomes seems to be becoming increasingly uncertain. Alongside this, the time.lags between policy demands and institutional responses are often lengthening, with the institutional structures charged with designing and implementing agreed actions needing to change in order to keep up with this process. This report aims to contribute to the discussion about plausible future developments relevant to the wider European region and to stimulate medium to long-term thinking in policy-making circles. It does so by sketching some of the key environmental concerns for the pan-European region based on the EEA's Europe's environment - The fourth assessment, and by highlighting some of the many uncertainties the future holds. (au)

  9. The Effects of Curtain Airbag on Occupant Kinematics and Injury Index in Rollover Crash

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyun Li

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Occupant injuries in rollover crashes are associated with vehicle structural performance, as well as the restraint system design. For a better understanding of the occupant kinematics and injury index in certain rollover crash, it is essential to carry out dynamic vehicle rollover simulation with dummy included. Objective. This study focused on effects of curtain airbag (CAB parameters on occupant kinematics and injury indexes in a rollover crash. Besides, optimized parameters of the CAB were proposed for the purpose of decreasing the occupant injuries in such rollover scenario. Method and Material. The vehicle motion from the physical test was introduced as the input for the numerical simulation, and the 50% Hybrid III dummy model from the MADYMO database was imported into a simulation model. The restraint system, including a validated CAB module, was introduced for occupant kinematics simulation and injury evaluation. TTF setting, maximum inflator pressure, and protection area of the CAB were analysed. Results. After introducing the curtain airbag, the maximum head acceleration was reduced from 91.60 g to 49.52 g, and the neck Mx and neck Fz were reduced significantly. Among these CAB parameters, the TTF setting had the largest effect on the head acceleration which could reduce 8.6 g furthermore after optimization. The neck Fz was decreased from 3766.48 N to 2571.77 N after optimization of CAB protection area. Conclusions. Avoiding hard contact is critical for the occupant protection in the rollover crashes. The simulation results indicated that occupant kinematics and certain injury indexes were improved with the help of CAB in such rollover scenario. Appropriate TTF setting and inflator selection could benefit occupant kinematics and injury indexes. Besides, it was advised to optimize the curtain airbag thickness around the head contact area to improve head and neck injury indexes.

  10. Protective effect and the therapeutic index of indralin in juvenile rhesus monkeys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasin, Mikhail V.; Antipov, Vsevolod V.; Ushakov, Igor B.; Semenov, Leonid F.; Lapin, Boris A.; Suvorov, Nikolai N.; Ilyin, Leonid A.

    2014-01-01

    The radioprotective effect of indralin in rhesus monkeys was examined over 60 d following gamma irradiation. Male and female rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) 2-3-years-old and weighing 2.1-3.5 kg were used. Animals were exposed to total-body gamma irradiation from 60 Co at a dose of 6.8 Gy (lethal dose, 100% lethality over 30 days). Indralin (40-120 mg kg -1 ) was administered intramuscularly 5 min prior to radiation exposure. Indralin taken at a dose of 120 mg kg -1 protected five out of six monkeys (compared with the radiation control group, in which all 10 animals died). The average effective dose of indralin in the monkeys exposed to gamma irradiation for 30 min was equal to 77.3 (63.3-94.3) mg kg -1 , and the maximum tolerated dose of indralin administered to monkeys was 800 mg kg -1 . Indralin reduced radiation-induced injuries in macaques, thus resulting in a less severe course of acute radiation syndrome. Delayed and less pronounced manifestation of the haemorrhagic syndrome of the disease, and milder forms of both leukopenia and anaemia were also noted. The therapeutic index for indralin, expressed as the ratio of the maximum tolerated dose to the average effective dose, was equal to 10. Therefore, indralin has a significant radioprotective effect against radiation and has a high therapeutic index in rhesus monkeys. (author)

  11. Judicious management of uncertain risks : II. Simple rules and more intricate models for precautionary decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vlek, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Rational decision theory could be more fully exploited for the prudent management of uncertain-risk situations. After an integrative circumscription of the precautionary principle (PP), 10 key issues are discussed covering assessment, decision and control. In view of this, a variety of

  12. The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burges, S. J.

    2016-12-01

    Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

  13. A Robust Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter for Nonlinear Estimation with Uncertain Noise Covariance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Binqi; Fu, Pengcheng; Li, Baoqing; Yuan, Xiaobing

    2018-03-07

    The Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) may suffer from performance degradation and even divergence while mismatch between the noise distribution assumed as a priori by users and the actual ones in a real nonlinear system. To resolve this problem, this paper proposes a robust adaptive UKF (RAUKF) to improve the accuracy and robustness of state estimation with uncertain noise covariance. More specifically, at each timestep, a standard UKF will be implemented first to obtain the state estimations using the new acquired measurement data. Then an online fault-detection mechanism is adopted to judge if it is necessary to update current noise covariance. If necessary, innovation-based method and residual-based method are used to calculate the estimations of current noise covariance of process and measurement, respectively. By utilizing a weighting factor, the filter will combine the last noise covariance matrices with the estimations as the new noise covariance matrices. Finally, the state estimations will be corrected according to the new noise covariance matrices and previous state estimations. Compared with the standard UKF and other adaptive UKF algorithms, RAUKF converges faster to the actual noise covariance and thus achieves a better performance in terms of robustness, accuracy, and computation for nonlinear estimation with uncertain noise covariance, which is demonstrated by the simulation results.

  14. Effect of Glycemic Index of a Pre-exercise Meal on Endurance Exercise Performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burdon, Catriona A.; Spronk, Inge; Cheng, Hoi Lun; O’Connor, Helen T.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Low glycemic index (GI) pre-exercise meals may enhance endurance performance by maintaining euglycemia and altering fuel utilization. However, evidence for performance benefits is equivocal. Objective: To evaluate the effect of a low GI (LGI) versus a high GI (HGI) pre-exercise meal on

  15. Asset pricing with index investing

    OpenAIRE

    Georgy Chabakauri; Oleg Rytchkov

    2014-01-01

    We provide a novel theoretical analysis of how index investing affects capital market equilibrium. We consider a dynamic exchange economy with heterogeneous investors and two Lucas trees and find that indexing can either increase or decrease the correlation between stock returns and in general increases (decreases) volatilities and betas of stocks with larger (smaller) market capitalizations. Indexing also decreases market volatility and interest rates, although those effects are weak. The im...

  16. Quantification of uncertain outcomes from site characterization: Insights from the ESF-AS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyle, W.J.; Parrish, D.K.; Beccue, P.C.

    1992-01-01

    As part of the Exploratory Studies Facility Alternatives Study (ESF-AS) the uncertain outcomes from site characterization were quantified using a probabilistic tree known as ''Nature's Tree.'' Nature's Tree distinguished the true characteristics of the Yucca Mountain site from the perceived characteristics deduced from testing. Bayesian probabilistic calculations converted probabilities in Nature's Tree to the probabilistic estimates required for the comparative analysis of Exploratory Studies Facility-repository options. Experts on characterization testing explicitly addressed several site characterization issues that are considered implicitly in many site characterization programs

  17. A critical note on the IAGA-endorsed Polar Cap index procedure. Effects of solar wind sector structure and reverse polar convection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauning, P.

    2015-01-01

    The International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) has recently endorsed a new Polar Cap (PC) index version to supersede the previous seven different versions of the PCN (North) index and the five different PCS (South) index versions. However, the new PC index has some adverse features which should be known and taken into account by users of the index. It uses in its derivation procedure an ''effective'' quiet day level (QDC) composed of a ''basic'' QDC and an added solar wind sector term related to the azimuthal component (B y ) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The added IMF B y -related terms may introduce unjustified contributions to the PC index of more than 2 index units (mV m -1 ). Furthermore, cases of reverse convection during strong northward IMF B z (NBZ) conditions included in the database for calculation of index coefficients can cause unjustified index enhancements of 0.5-1 mV m -1 during calm conditions, reduction of index values by more than 20% during disturbed conditions, and inconsistencies between index coefficients and index values for the northern and southern polar caps. The aim here is to specify these adverse features and quantify their effects, and to suggest alternative steps for future modifications of the index procedure.

  18. A critical note on the IAGA-endorsed Polar Cap index procedure. Effects of solar wind sector structure and reverse polar convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauning, P. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2015-07-01

    The International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) has recently endorsed a new Polar Cap (PC) index version to supersede the previous seven different versions of the PCN (North) index and the five different PCS (South) index versions. However, the new PC index has some adverse features which should be known and taken into account by users of the index. It uses in its derivation procedure an ''effective'' quiet day level (QDC) composed of a ''basic'' QDC and an added solar wind sector term related to the azimuthal component (B{sub y}) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The added IMF B{sub y}-related terms may introduce unjustified contributions to the PC index of more than 2 index units (mV m{sup -1}). Furthermore, cases of reverse convection during strong northward IMF B{sub z} (NBZ) conditions included in the database for calculation of index coefficients can cause unjustified index enhancements of 0.5-1 mV m{sup -1} during calm conditions, reduction of index values by more than 20% during disturbed conditions, and inconsistencies between index coefficients and index values for the northern and southern polar caps. The aim here is to specify these adverse features and quantify their effects, and to suggest alternative steps for future modifications of the index procedure.

  19. Data-Driven Optimization of Incentive-based Demand Response System with Uncertain Responses of Customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimyung Kang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Demand response is nowadays considered as another type of generator, beyond just a simple peak reduction mechanism. A demand response service provider (DRSP can, through its subcontracts with many energy customers, virtually generate electricity with actual load reduction. However, in this type of virtual generator, the amount of load reduction includes inevitable uncertainty, because it consists of a very large number of independent energy customers. While they may reduce energy today, they might not tomorrow. In this circumstance, a DSRP must choose a proper set of these uncertain customers to achieve the exact preferred amount of load curtailment. In this paper, the customer selection problem for a service provider that consists of uncertain responses of customers is defined and solved. The uncertainty of energy reduction is fully considered in the formulation with data-driven probability distribution modeling and stochastic programming technique. The proposed optimization method that utilizes only the observed load data provides a realistic and applicable solution to a demand response system. The performance of the proposed optimization is verified with real demand response event data in Korea, and the results show increased and stabilized performance from the service provider’s perspective.

  20. Weak lensing and CMB: Parameter forecasts including a running spectral index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishak, Mustapha; Hirata, Christopher M.; McDonald, Patrick; Seljak, Uros

    2004-01-01

    We use statistical inference theory to explore the constraints from future galaxy weak lensing (cosmic shear) surveys combined with the current CMB constraints on cosmological parameters, focusing particularly on the running of the spectral index of the primordial scalar power spectrum, α s . Recent papers have drawn attention to the possibility of measuring α s by combining the CMB with galaxy clustering and/or the Lyman-α forest. Weak lensing combined with the CMB provides an alternative probe of the primordial power spectrum. We run a series of simulations with variable runnings and compare them to semianalytic nonlinear mappings to test their validity for our calculations. We find that a 'reference' cosmic shear survey with f sky =0.01 and 6.6x10 8 galaxies per steradian can reduce the uncertainty on n s and α s by roughly a factor of 2 relative to the CMB alone. We investigate the effect of shear calibration biases on lensing by including the calibration factor as a parameter, and show that for our reference survey, the precision of cosmological parameter determination is only slightly degraded even if the amplitude calibration is uncertain by as much as 5%. We conclude that in the near future weak lensing surveys can supplement the CMB observations to constrain the primordial power spectrum

  1. Effects of Oral Health Training on Dental Plaque Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M amiri

    2016-02-01

    3- oral health training (control group . Two weeks and two months after the intervention, plaque index was measured. Positive and negative changes were recorded over time, and then, the study data were analyzed using Chi-square (bonferroni adjustment, McNemar, Kruskal-Wallis  and Paired t-Test. Results: The study results revealed no significant differences between the  halitosis group and the traditional group, though both had a significant difference with the control group. Positive changes in halitosis group especially within girls were held to be more durable compared to the other groups. Conclusion: Oral health training accompanging training of oral malodor, tooth decay and periodontal disease seems to be more effective on health promotion of senior high school students in Yazd. Furthermore, oral malodor training produces more durable effects. As a result, this training style is recommended in regard with eductional programs of schools.

  2. Update on uncertain etiology of chronic kidney disease in Sri Lanka's north-central dry zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanigasuriya, Kamani

    2014-04-01

    This manuscript updates a review previously published in a local journal in 2012, about a new form of chronic kidney disease that has emerged over the past two decades in the north-central dry zone of Sri Lanka, where the underlying causes remain undetermined. Disease burden is higher in this area, particularly North Central Province, and affects a rural and disadvantaged population involved in rice-paddy farming. Over the last decade several studies have been carried out to estimate prevalence and identify determinants of this chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology. Summarize the available evidence on prevalence, clinical profile and risk factors of chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology in the north-central region of Sri Lanka. PubMed search located 16 manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals. Three peer-reviewed abstracts of presentations at national scientific conferences were also included in the review. Disease prevalence was 5.1%-16.9% with more severe disease seen in men than in women. Patients with mild to moderate stages of disease were asymptomatic or had nonspecific symptoms; urinary sediments were bland; 24-hour urine protein excretion was urine, and mycotoxins detected in foods were below maximum statutory limits. Calcium-bicarbonate-type water with high levels of fluoride was predominant in endemic regions. Significantly high levels of cadmium in urine of cases compared to controls, as well as the disease's dose-related response to these levels, has drawn attention to this element as a possible contributing factor. Familial clustering of patients is suggestive of a polygenic inheritance pattern comparable to that associated with diseases of multifactorial etiology. Available data suggest that chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology is an environmentally acquired disease, but to date no definitive causal factor has been identified. Geographic distribution and research findings suggest a multifactorial etiology.

  3. SPECT imaging of dopaminergic system: a preliminary study of nine patients with clinically uncertain Parkinsonism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dey, S. K.; Gopinath, G.; Buscombe, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    Parkinsonism is the result of various neuro degenerative disorders, the common and related causes are Parkinson's disease (PD), multiple system atrophy (MSA) and progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP). In each of these three causes, there is degeneration of presynaptic neurons in corpus striatum. Nine patients having clinically uncertain parkinsonian symptoms undergone brain SPECT imaging using the tracer (I-123 Ioflupane) that binds to dopamine transporter (DaT) in the pre-synaptic nerve terminals in basal ganglia. There was significantly decreased tracer uptake in the tail (putamen) portion of basal ganglia in five patients confirming presence of presynaptic neuro degeneration and reported as parkinsonism. Three patients revealed normal tracer uptake with one equivocal result. DaT imaging can effectively confirm parkinsonism and discriminate from normal subjects as well as other clinical simulators like essential tremor and dopa-responsive dystonia where no neuro degeneration occur.(author)

  4. Evaluation of the effects of diuron and its derivatives on Lemna gibba using a fluorescence toxicity index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewez, David; Marchand, Mathieu; Eullaffroy, Philippe; Popovic, Radovan

    2002-10-01

    The herbicide diuron (DCMU) [3-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-1,1-dimethylurea] is largely used in agricultural practices which contribute to water pollution in large areas. Its degradation induced by light or microbial activity is known to be a slow process, and may result in the accumulation of DCMU derivatives in the environment. In this report we used the yield of PSII variable fluorescence of Lemna gibba affected by the DCMU derivatives DCPMU [1-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)-3-methylurea], DCPU [1-(3,4-dichlorophenyl)urea], and DCA [3,4-dichloroaniline] to calculate the fluorescence toxicity index. We found the fluorescence toxicity index to be a useful parameter to evaluate the inhibitory effect on PSII electron transport in L. gibba exposed to DCMU and its derivatives. The variations observed for the inhibitory effect between DCMU and its derivatives seem to be caused by the modification of the dimethylurea group within the DCMU molecule. The fluorescence toxicity index demonstrated a strong quantitative dependency between the inhibitory effect of PSII electron transport and pollutant concentrations. We propose the fluorescence toxicity index to be a useful tool for future bioassays in evaluating the quality of water polluted with herbicides that induce an inhibition to PSII photochemistry. Copyright 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. [Cost-effectiveness analysis and diet quality index applied to the WHO Global Strategy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Flávia Mori Sarti; Simões, Arlete Naresse

    2008-02-01

    To test the use of cost-effectiveness analysis as a decision making tool in the production of meals for the inclusion of the recommendations published in the World Health Organization's Global Strategy. Five alternative options for breakfast menu were assessed previously to their adoption in a food service at a university in the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, in 2006. Costs of the different options were based on market prices of food items (direct cost). Health benefits were estimated based on adaptation of the Diet Quality Index (DQI). Cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated by dividing benefits by costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated as cost differential per unit of additional benefit. The meal choice was based on health benefit units associated to direct production cost as well as incremental effectiveness per unit of differential cost. The analysis showed the most simple option with the addition of a fruit (DQI = 64 / cost = R$ 1.58) as the best alternative. Higher effectiveness was seen in the options with a fruit portion (DQI1=64 / DQI3=58 / DQI5=72) compared to the others (DQI2=48 / DQI4=58). The estimate of cost-effectiveness ratio allowed to identifying the best breakfast option based on cost-effectiveness analysis and Diet Quality Index. These instruments allow easy application easiness and objective evaluation which are key to the process of inclusion of public or private institutions under the Global Strategy directives.

  6. Effect of TiCl4 treatment on the refractive index of nanoporous TiO2 films

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeeyoung; Lee, Myeongkyu

    2015-12-01

    We investigate the effect of TiCl4 treatment on the refractive index of a nanoporous TiO2 film. A nanoparticulate TiO2 film prepared on a glass substrate was immersed in a TiCl4 aqueous solution. The subsequent reaction of TiCl4 with H2O produces TiO2 and thus modifies the density and the refractive index of the film. With increasing TiCl4 concentration, the refractive index initially increased and then declined after being maximized (n = 2.02 at 633 nm) at 0.08 M concentration. A refractive index change as large as 0.45 could be obtained with the TiCl4 treatment, making it possible to achieve diffraction efficiency exceeding 80% in a diffraction grating-embedded TiO2 film. For high TiCl4 concentrations of 0.32 M and 0.64 M, the refractive index remained nearly unchanged. This was attributed to the limited permeability of high-viscosity TiCl4 solutions into the nanoporous films. The measured pore size distributions were in good agreement with the results of a diffraction analysis and refractive index measurement.

  7. Enhancing Evolutionary Optimization in Uncertain Environments by Allocating Evaluations via Multi-armed Bandit Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Qiu, Xin; Miikkulainen, Risto

    2018-01-01

    Optimization problems with uncertain fitness functions are common in the real world, and present unique challenges for evolutionary optimization approaches. Existing issues include excessively expensive evaluation, lack of solution reliability, and incapability in maintaining high overall fitness during optimization. Using conversion rate optimization as an example, this paper proposes a series of new techniques for addressing these issues. The main innovation is to augment evolutionary algor...

  8. Nonlinear refractive index measurements and self-action effects in Roselle-Hibiscus Sabdariffa solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henari, F. Z.; Al-Saie, A.

    2006-12-01

    We report the observation of self-action phenomena, such as self-focusing, self-defocusing, self-phase modulation and beam fanning in Roselle-Hibiscus Sabdariffa solutions. This material is found to be a new type of natural nonlinear media, and the nonlinear reflective index coefficient has been determined using a Z-scan technique and by measuring the critical power for the self-trapping effect. Z-scan measurements show that this material has a large negative nonlinear refractive index, n 2 = 1 × 10-4 esu. A comparison between the experimental n 2 values and the calculated thermal value for n 2 suggests that the major contribution to nonlinear response is of thermal origin.

  9. The Effects of Smoking Cessation on Visceral Adiposity Index Levels

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2018-06-11

    Jun 11, 2018 ... mass index (BMI), and high‑density lipoprotein cholesterol levels .... used to determine the relationship between not normally .... monoxide; VAI=Visceral adiposity index; TG=Triglyceride; HDL‑cholesterol=High density ...

  10. A Tourism Financial Conditions Index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper uses monthly data on financial stock index returns, tourism stock sub-index returns, effective exchange rate returns and interest rate differences from April 2005 – August 2013 for Taiwan that applies Chang’s (2014) novel approach for constructing a tourism

  11. Parameter-dependent PWQ Lyapunov function stability criteria for uncertain piecewise linear systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten Hovd

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The calculation of piecewise quadratic (PWQ Lyapunov functions is addressed in view of stability analysis of uncertain piecewise linear dynamics. As main contribution, the linear matrix inequality (LMI approach proposed in (Johansson and Rantzer, 1998 for the stability analysis of PWL and PWA dynamics is extended to account for parametric uncertainty based on a improved relaxation technique. The results are applied for the analysis of a Phase Locked Loop (PLL benchmark and the ability to guarantee a stability region in the parameter space well beyond the state of the art is demonstrated.

  12. Stabilization of constrained uncertain systems by an off-line approach using zonotopes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walid Hamdi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, stabilization of uncertain systems was established using zonotopic sets. The obtained state feedback control laws are computed by an off-line approach reducing computational burdens. The resolution of a robust model predictive control (MPC allows computing a sequence of state feedback control laws corresponding to a sequence of zonotopic invariant sets. The implemented control laws are then calculated by linear interpolation between the state feedback gains corresponding to the nested pre-computed zonotopic sets. The proposed interpolation with the use of zonotopic sets achieves better control performances.

  13. Functional assays for analysis of variants of uncertain significance in BRCA2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guidugli, Lucia; Carreira, Aura; Caputo, Sandrine M

    2014-01-01

    Missense variants in the BRCA2 gene are routinely detected during clinical screening for pathogenic mutations in patients with a family history of breast and ovarian cancer. These subtle changes frequently remain of unknown clinical significance because of the lack of genetic information that may...... of uncertain significance analyzed, and describe a validation set of (genetically) proven pathogenic and neutral missense variants to serve as a golden standard for the validation of each assay. Guidelines are proposed to enable implementation of laboratory-based methods to assess the impact of the variant...

  14. Effect of Watertight Subdivision on Subdivision Index for Medium Size Ro–Ro Passenger Ferries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pawlowski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Ro-pax vessels should fulfil the requirements of the current harmonised SOLAS Convention. The study analyses the effect of various ro-pax vessel subdivision arrangements on the subdivision index. A Polish ferry was chosen as a generic ship to perform the study. For illustration of damage survivability, the attained subdivision index A was calculated for a number of modified configurations. The arrangements included single and double sides above and below the car deck, with and without a double buoyant car deck. The conclusions of the study can be used in the design of new ro-pax vessels.

  15. Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Labriet, Maryse; Kanudia, Amit; Loulou, Richard

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as “super-hedging” actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios. Nuclear power and CCS use are less robust: they depend much more on either the level of the climate target or the probabilities of the technology outlooks. The analysis also shows that technological uncertainty has a greater impact under milder climate targets than under more severe ones. Future research might consider a larger set of possible technology outlooks, as well as specific analyses focused on key characteristics of low-carbon technologies. - Highlights: ► The hedging strategy is not an average of deterministic strategies. ► The hedging offers a mix of abatement actions that cannot easily be found otherwise. ► Natural gas is an appealing choice in an uncertain context, especially in China. ► China reduces its emissions only when options in other countries are exhausted.

  16. Probabilistic Dynamics for Integrated Analysis of Accident Sequences considering Uncertain Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robertas Alzbutas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The analytical/deterministic modelling and simulation/probabilistic methods are used separately as a rule in order to analyse the physical processes and random or uncertain events. However, in the currently used probabilistic safety assessment this is an issue. The lack of treatment of dynamic interactions between the physical processes on one hand and random events on the other hand causes the limited assessment. In general, there are a lot of mathematical modelling theories, which can be used separately or integrated in order to extend possibilities of modelling and analysis. The Theory of Probabilistic Dynamics (TPD and its augmented version based on the concept of stimulus and delay are introduced for the dynamic reliability modelling and the simulation of accidents in hybrid (continuous-discrete systems considering uncertain events. An approach of non-Markovian simulation and uncertainty analysis is discussed in order to adapt the Stimulus-Driven TPD for practical applications. The developed approach and related methods are used as a basis for a test case simulation in view of various methods applications for severe accident scenario simulation and uncertainty analysis. For this and for wider analysis of accident sequences the initial test case specification is then extended and discussed. Finally, it is concluded that enhancing the modelling of stimulated dynamics with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis allows the detailed simulation of complex system characteristics and representation of their uncertainty. The developed approach of accident modelling and analysis can be efficiently used to estimate the reliability of hybrid systems and at the same time to analyze and possibly decrease the uncertainty of this estimate.

  17. Effect of relaxation on working memory and the Bispectral Index of the EEG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudetz, Judith A; Hudetz, Anthony G; Reddy, Diane M

    2004-08-01

    Beneficial effects of relaxation on cardiovascular and immune functions and on memory has been implied but an empirical relationship between task performance and anxiety reduction has not been reported. In this study, we investigated whether guided imagery of relatively short duration would decrease S-Anxiety and electroencephalogram Bispectral Index and improve working memory. 42 participants (age: M=39, SD=11, 14 men, 28 women, university students and VA Medical Center employees, recruited by their professor or by fellow employees) underwent relaxation by 16-min. guided imagery or no treatment (control). Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the WAIS-III Letter-Number Sequencing Test were administered before and after relaxation. S-Anxiety and BIS Index decreased and the Letter-Number test score increased by 30% after relaxation but not in the control group. This score was higher for participants with low anxiety and BIS Index. There was no significant difference between the groups before treatment. The results suggest that guided imagery of short duration produces relaxation as measured by psychological and neurophysiological indices and improves working memory performance.

  18. PID Based on Attractive Ellipsoid Method for Dynamic Uncertain and External Disturbances Rejection in Mechanical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Patricio Ordaz Oliver

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a stability analysis for LNDS (Lagrangian nonlinear dynamical systems with dynamic uncertain using a PID controller with external disturbances rejection based on attractive ellipsoid methods, since the PID-CT (proportional integral derivative computed torque compensator has been used for the nonlinear trajectory tracking of an LNDS, when there are external perturbations and system uncertainties. The global system convergence of the trivial solution has not been proved. In this sense, we propose an approach to find the gains of the nonlinear PID-CT controller to guarantee the boundedness of the trivial solution by means of the concept of the UUB (uniform-ultimately bounded stability. In order to show the effectiveness of the methodology proposed, we applied it in a real 2-DoF robot system.

  19. Uncertain travel times and activity schedules under conditions of space-time constraints and invariant choice heuristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of uncertain travel times as reflected in travel time variability on the outcomes of individuals’ activity–travel scheduling decisions, assuming they are faced with fixed space–time constraints and apply the set of decision rules that they have developed

  20. On the refractive index of sodium iodide solutions for index matching in PIV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Kunlun; Katz, Joseph

    2014-04-01

    Refractive index matching has become a popular technique for facilitating applications of modern optical diagnostic techniques, such as particle image velocimetry, in complex systems. By matching the refractive index of solid boundaries with that of the liquid, unobstructed optical paths can be achieved for illumination and image acquisition. In this research note, we extend previously provided data for the refractive index of aqueous solutions of sodium iodide (NaI) for concentrations reaching the temperature-dependent solubility limit. Results are fitted onto a quadratic empirical expression relating the concentration to the refractive index. Temperature effects are also measured. The present range of indices, 1.333-1.51, covers that of typical transparent solids, from silicone elastomers to several recently introduced materials that could be manufactured using rapid prototyping. We also review briefly previous measurements of the refractive index, viscosity, and density of NaI solutions, as well as prior research that has utilized this fluid.

  1. A real option-based model to valuate CDM projects under uncertain energy policies for emission trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Taeil; Kim, Changyoon; Kim, Hyoungkwan

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A real option-based model for the valuation of CDM projects is proposed. • This study investigates the impact of energy policies on the value of CDM projects. • Level of target emission and its schedule should be carefully designed. • Government subsidy facilitates the implementation of CDM projects. • Period for free emission allowance prevents promoting CDM projects. - Abstract: Emission trading has been considered a primary policy tool for emission reduction. Governments establish national targets for emission reduction and assign emission reduction goals to private entities to accomplish the targets. To attain the goal, private entities should perform offset projects that can produce emission credits or buy emission credits from the market. However, it is not easy for private entities to decide to implement the projects because energy policies associated with emission trading keep changing; thus, the future benefits of the offset projects are quite uncertain. This study presents a real option-based model to investigate how uncertain energy policies affect the financial viability of an offset project. A case study showed that the establishment of a target emission was attractive to the government because it could make the CDM project financially viable with a small amount of government subsidy. In addition, the level of the government subsidy could determine the investment timing for the CDM project. In this context, governments should be cautious in designing energy policies, because even the same energy policies could have different impacts on private entities. Overall, this study is expected to assist private entities in establishing proper investment strategies for CDM projects under uncertain energy policies

  2. The Effects of FOCUS-PDCA Methodology on Emergency Department Patient Disposition Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossien Jabbari beirami

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Hospital emergency is an important and unique department and prolonged stay of the patients in this ward leads to a decrease in the ability to serve other patients in need. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the ability of FOCUS-PDCA methodology to decrease waiting time of the procedures and improve index of decision-making within 6 hours in emergency department (ED. Methods: In this interventional before-after study, the effect of FOCUS-PDCA methodology on waiting time of the procedures and decision-making was evaluated in the ED of Sina Hospital, Tabriz, Iran in a 5-month period. Initially, a team of procedure definers defined the problematic procedures and suggested practical solutions to relieve them. Then, these solutions were practiced using appropriate programming, and finally the effects of these measures were analyzed using SPSS version 11.5 and independent t-test. Results: 5 months after intervention, mean waiting time for receiving consultation was reduced from 28.1 to 17 minutes (p < 0.001 and mean time for the results of a laboratory test to be ready was reduced from 70.26 to 37.66 minutes (p = 0.006. The number of patients who stayed in the ED for more than 6 hours, which was 101 in April, decreased to 52 in November (p = 0.002. The index of patient disposition in less than 6 hours increased from 94.71% in April to 96.87% in November. Conclusion: Based on the results of this study, it seems that carrying out FOCUS-PDCA methodology can decrease waiting time of the procedures and improve patient disposition index in the ED.

  3. Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

    2018-03-31

    As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems.

  4. Triglyceride glucose-body mass index is effective in identifying nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in nonobese subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shujun; Du, Tingting; Li, Mengni; Jia, Jing; Lu, Huiming; Lin, Xuan; Yu, Xuefeng

    2017-06-01

    Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly common condition that is highly correlated with obesity; however, it is not uncommon among nonobese individuals. Triglyceride (TG) and glucose index combined with body mass index (TyG-BMI) has been proposed as a favorable marker of insulin resistance. We sought to investigate the effectiveness of TyG-BMI in identifying NAFLD in nonobese subjects.We conducted a cross-sectional study in a nonobese (BMI glucose, for identifying nonobese subjects at risk for NAFLD.In this study, the prevalence of NAFLD was over one-fifth in the nonobese population. TyG-BMI was an effective marker to detect NAFLD in nonobese subjects.

  5. Singularity-Free Neural Control for the Exponential Trajectory Tracking in Multiple-Input Uncertain Systems with Unknown Deadzone Nonlinearities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Humberto Pérez-Cruz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The trajectory tracking for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems in which the number of possible states is equal to the number of inputs and each input is preceded by an unknown symmetric deadzone is considered. The unknown dynamics is identified by means of a continuous time recurrent neural network in which the control singularity is conveniently avoided by guaranteeing the invertibility of the coupling matrix. Given this neural network-based mathematical model of the uncertain system, a singularity-free feedback linearization control law is developed in order to compel the system state to follow a reference trajectory. By means of Lyapunov-like analysis, the exponential convergence of the tracking error to a bounded zone can be proven. Likewise, the boundedness of all closed-loop signals can be guaranteed.

  6. A Comparison of the Mathematical Modeling Methods in the Inventory Systems under Uncertain Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    A. Mirzazadeh

    2011-01-01

    The inventory models, generally, are derived with considering two methods: (1) minimizing the average annual cost or (2) minimizing the discounted cost. This paper compares the optimal ordering policies determined by these methods under uncertain inflationary situations. The inventory and shortages behavior have been analyzed with using the differential equations. The numerical examples are used to illustrate the theoretical results. A detailed analysis on the models parameters has been perfo...

  7. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  8. Towards a Framework for Self-Adaptive Reliable Network Services in Highly-Uncertain Environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk, Lars Jesper; Schwefel, Hans-Peter; Ceccarelli, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    In future inhomogeneous, pervasive and highly dynamic networks, end-nodes may often only rely on unreliable and uncertain observations to diagnose hidden network states and decide upon possible remediation actions. Inherent challenges exists to identify good and timely decision strategies to impr...... execution (and monitoring) of remediation actions. We detail the motivations to the ODDR design, then we present its architecture, and finally we describe our current activities towards the realization and assessment of the framework services and the main results currently achieved....

  9. Reversing the direction of space and inverse Doppler effect in positive refraction index media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Fei; He, Sailing

    2017-01-01

    A negative refractive index medium, in which all spatial coordinates are reversed (i.e. a left-hand triplet is formed) by a spatial folding transformation, can create many novel electromagnetic phenomena, e.g. backward wave propagation, and inversed Doppler effect (IDE). In this study, we use coordinate rotation transformation to reverse only two spatial coordinates (e.g. x ′ and y ′), while keeping z ′ unchanged. In this case, some novel phenomena, e.g. radiation-direction-reversing illusions and IDE, can be achieved in a free space region wrapped by the proposed shell without any negative refractive index medium, which is easier for experimental realization and future applications. (paper)

  10. Author Index

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    user1

    Astr. (2012) 33, 419–420. Author Index. 419. AGGARWAL SUNNY. Photoionization Cross-Section of Chlorine-like Iron, 291. AMBASTHA ASHOK see Das, A. C., 1. ARAKIDA HIDEYOSHI. Effect of Inhomogeneity of the Universe on a Gravitationally. Bound Local System: A No-Go Result for Explaining the Secular Increase in.

  11. Construction of Index System Based on Advanced Persistent Threat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Jia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the proliferation of advanced persistent threat (APT, APT attack effect evaluation is playing an increasingly important role in cyberspace. As one of the hot issues of network security, the evaluation to its attack effect can quantify the harm caused by APT. Then according to the evaluation results, we can derive specific measures to the network attack. At present, a lot of work has done in the network attack effect evaluation index system. However, a significant barrier to the development of APT attack effect evaluation is that the existing index system is either from the point of view of the network security situation, or for a single attack weapons to customize. In this paper, an evaluation index system is proposed through analysing the features of APT. Through this index system, we can not only quantify APT attack effect, but also visually observe the APT ability from various angles. Then, we use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP to model the evaluation process and calculate the weight of each indicator. Finally, the Ukrainian Power Outages is taken as an example to validate the proposed index system. The experimental results verify the effectiveness of the index system.

  12. Transient Stability Assessment of Power Systems With Uncertain Renewable Generation: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villegas Pico, Hugo Nestor [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Aliprantis, Dionysios C. [Purdue University; Lin, Xiaojun [Purdue University

    2017-08-09

    The transient stability of a power system depends heavily on its operational state at the moment of a fault. In systems where the penetration of renewable generation is significant, the dispatch of the conventional fleet of synchronous generators is uncertain at the time of dynamic security analysis. Hence, the assessment of transient stability requires the solution of a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations with unknown initial conditions and inputs. To this end, we set forth a computational framework that relies on Taylor polynomials, where variables are associated with the level of renewable generation. This paper describes the details of the method and illustrates its application on a nine-bus test system.

  13. New methods for solving a vertex p-center problem with uncertain demand-weighted distance: A real case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javad Nematian

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Vertex and p-center problems are two well-known types of the center problem. In this paper, a p-center problem with uncertain demand-weighted distance will be introduced in which the demands are considered as fuzzy random variables (FRVs and the objective of the problem is to minimize the maximum distance between a node and its nearest facility. Then, by introducing new methods, the proposed problem is converted to deterministic integer programming (IP problems where these methods will be obtained through the implementation of the possibility theory and fuzzy random chance-constrained programming (FRCCP. Finally, the proposed methods are applied for locating bicycle stations in the city of Tabriz in Iran as a real case study. The computational results of our study show that these methods can be implemented for the center problem with uncertain frameworks.

  14. Association of Body Mass Index and Body Mass Index Change with Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Xiong

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although high body mass index (BMI appears to confer a survival advantage in hemodialysis patients, the association of BMI with mortality in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD patients is uncertain. We enrolled incident CAPD patients and BMI was categorized according to World Health Organization classification for Asian population. BMI at baseline and one year after the initiation of peritoneal dialysis (PD treatment was assessed to calculate the BMI change (∆BMI. Patients were split into four categories according quartiles of ∆BMI. Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression proportional hazard analysis were performed to assess the association of BMI on outcomes. A total of 1263 CAPD patients were included, with a mean age of 47.8 ± 15.0 years, a mean BMI of 21.58 ± 3.13 kg/m2. During a median follow-up of 25.3 months, obesity was associated with increased risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD death (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR 2.01; 95% CI 1.14, 3.54, but not all-cause mortality. Additionally, patients with more BMI decline (>0.80% during the first year after CAPD initiation had an elevated risk for both all-cause (AHR: 2.21, 95% CI 1.23–3.95 and CVD mortality (AHR 2.31, 95% CI 1.11, 4.84, which was independent of baseline BMI values.

  15. Developing Scenarios for Uncertain Complex Risks : Using SD to Explore Futures of Lyme Disease in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Coumou, J.

    2012-01-01

    Lyme disease due to infection with Lyme borreliosis poses an uncertain dynamic threat to the Dutch and their public health system. This risk was used to develop and illustrate two variants of a National Risk Assessment approaches for slumbering/latent risks. This paper explains and illustrates the

  16. Browse Title Index

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 351 - 400 of 400 ... Vol 2, No 1 (2007), The effects of Aloe vera [gel] on clotting time, prothrombin time and plasma fibrinogen concentration in albino Wistar rats, Abstract. D V Dapper, P N Achinike, M D Gwotmut. Vol 8, No 3 (2014), The effects of body mass index on some electrocardiographic parameters in young adults: ...

  17. Slow light effect with high group index and wideband by saddle-like mode in PC-CROW

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Yong; Jiang, Li-Jun; Xu, Sheng; Li, Meng-Xue; Liu, Meng-Nan; Jiang, Cheng-Yi; Yuan, Feng

    2018-04-01

    Slow light with high group index and wideband is achieved in photonic crystal coupled-resonator optical waveguides (PC-CROWs). According to the eye-shaped scatterers and various microcavities, saddle-like curves between the normalized frequency f and wave number k can be obtained by adjusting the parameters of the scatterers, parameters of the coupling microcavities, and positions of the scatterers. Slow light with decent flat band and group index can then be achieved by optimizing the parameters. Simulations prove that the maximal value of the group index is > 104, and the normalized delay bandwidth product within a new varying range of n g > 102 or n g > 103 can be a new and effective criterion of evaluation for the slow light in PC-CROWs.

  18. Hypercube algorithms suitable for image understanding in uncertain environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntsberger, T.L.; Sengupta, A.

    1988-01-01

    Computer vision in a dynamic environment needs to be fast and able to tolerate incomplete or uncertain intermediate results. An appropriately chose representation coupled with a parallel architecture addresses both concerns. The wide range of numerical and symbolic processing needed for robust computer vision can only be achieved through a blend of SIMD and MIMD processing techniques. The 1024 element hypercube architecture has these capabilities, and was chosen as the test-bed hardware for development of highly parallel computer vision algorithms. This paper presents and analyzes parallel algorithms for color image segmentation and edge detection. These algorithms are part of a recently developed computer vision system which uses multiple valued logic to represent uncertainty in the imaging process and in intermediate results. Algorithms for the extraction of three dimensional properties of objects using dynamic scene analysis techniques within the same framework are examined. Results from experimental studies using a 1024 element hypercube implementation of the algorithm as applied to a series of natural scenes are reported

  19. Developing a crevice chemistry control target from uncertain data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millett, P.J.

    1996-01-01

    It has been generally accepted that the corrosion of steam generator tubing could be reduced if the local pH in regions where impurities concentrate could be controlled. The practice of molar ratio control is based on this assumption. Direct measurement of the crevice chemistry is not possible at this time. Deterministic models based on bulk water conditions are quite uncertain, due to both the variability of crevices in the steam generator and the level of impurities in the bulk water which are often below or at the level of detection. The current methodology for assessing the crevice chemistry is to monitor the hideout return chemistry when the plant shuts down. This approach also has its shortcomings, but may provide sufficient data to evaluate whether the crevice pH is in a desirable range. In this paper, an approach for establishing a target crevice chemistry based on the plant data which is believed to be the most certain or reliable is presented

  20. Browse Title Index

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 1 - 50 of 147 ... Journal Home > Advanced Search > Browse Title Index .... Library (TEEAL) Database among faculty members in Federal University, ... Vol 5, No 2 (2014), Effects of corporate culture on the implementation of automation in ...

  1. The Overall Odds Ratio as an Intuitive Effect Size Index for Multiple Logistic Regression: Examination of Further Refinements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Huy; Marcus, Justin

    2012-01-01

    This study used Monte Carlo simulation to examine the properties of the overall odds ratio (OOR), which was recently introduced as an index for overall effect size in multiple logistic regression. It was found that the OOR was relatively independent of study base rate and performed better than most commonly used R-square analogs in indexing model…

  2. Stochastic modeling of the energy supply system with uncertain fuel price – A case of emerging technologies for distributed power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirkhani, Sh.; Saboohi, Y.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► An existing bottom-up deterministic energy system model (ESM) has limited capability in handling the uncertainties. ► Uncertainty has been modeled based on GBM. Probabilistic scenarios are generated based on Cox–Ross method. ► A multistage stochastic model has been developed where scenarios are integrated in the energy system model. ► A distributed generation system has been introduced as a case study where fuel price is considered as an uncertain parameter. - Abstract: A deterministic energy supply model with bottom-up structure has limited capability in handling the uncertainties. To enhance the applicability of such a model in an uncertain environment two main issues have been investigated in the present paper. First, a binomial lattice is generated based on the stochastic nature of the source of uncertainty. Second, an energy system model (ESM) has been reformulated as a multistage stochastic problem. The result of the application of the modified energy model encompasses all uncertain outcomes together and enables optimal timing of capacity expansion. The performance of the model has been demonstrated with the help of a case study. The case study has been formulated on the assumption that a gas fired engine competes with renewable energy technologies in an uncertain environment where the price of natural gas is volatile. The result of stochastic model has then been compared with those of a deterministic model by studying the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the value of stochastic solution (VSS). Finally the results of the sensitivity analysis have been discussed where the characteristics of uncertainty of the price of fuel are varied.

  3. The Effect of Trichoderma harzianum and Cadmium on Tolerance Index and Yield of Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Taghavi Ghasemkheyli

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the effect of Trichoderma harzianum, as a bioabsorbant to ameliorate the harmful effects of cadmium (Cd on growth and yield of barley (Hordeum vulgare L. variety ‘Sahra’, a factorial pot experiment based on completely randomized design with three replicates was conducted. Trichoderma harzianum withtwo levels (with and without inoculation and cadmium nitrate with four levels (0, 50, 100 and 150 mg.L-1 were the treatments. Results of ANOVA revealed that there was a significant interaction between Trichoderma and cadmium nitrate in terms of biological yield, straw yield, harvest index, spike number per plant and seed number per spike. Mean comparisons showed that Trichoderma inoculation at all Cd levels significantly improved both biological and straw yields. Trichoderma at 50 and 100 mg.L-1 of Cd also increased the spike number per plant (up to 120 and 66%, respectively significantly. Increasing Cd levels decreased seed yield (19%, 1000 seed weight (18%, partitioning coefficient (57% and tolerance index (23% significantly. Inoculation of Trichoderma into growth medium had a significant effect on seed yield and tolerance index (up to 17 and 22%, respectively. In conclusion, Trichoderma harzianum inoculation at lower concentrations of Cd (50 and 100 mg.L-1 could be effective to improve growth parameters of barley plant.

  4. Browse Title Index

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 1 - 50 of 449 ... Vol 1, No 3 (2012), Adult Functional Literacy Curriculum: Effective Strategy for Human ... and Exchange Rate Influence on the Nigerian Stock Market Index ... for the Stimulation and Attraction of Foreign Direct Investments ...

  5. Moiré Effect: Index and the Digital Image

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stella Baraklianou

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The moiré effect and phenomena are natural occurring geometric formations that appear during the super-position of grid structures. Most widely recognisable in colour printing practices, generally viewed on screens (computer and TV they are in most cases examples of interference within a signal or a code, unwanted visual mis-alignment. Especially in digital image capture, moiré patternings appear when a geometrically even pattern, like a fabric or close-up of fine texture, has an appearance of rippled water with blue or red hues of concentric circle formations. The intriguing pattern formation in this case points back not only to the mis-alignment of frequencies, but can be further seen as the intersection point of a speculative ontology for the index of the digital image. Moiré not only as a visually reproducible phenomenon or effect, but a field of vision that blurs the boundaries between analogue and digital, perception and affect, manifesting the photographic as a constant site of becoming, a site of immanence. The philosophy of Henri Bergson, Brian Massumi and Francois Laruelle will be explored alongside the moiré image and phenomenon, to see if there is such a speculative site underlining the becoming of the digital image and its repercussions in contemporary digital culture.

  6. Distributed adaptive asymptotically consensus tracking control of uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Wen, Changyun; Huang, Jiangshuai; Fan, Huijin

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, a backstepping based distributed adaptive control scheme is proposed for multiple uncertain Euler-Lagrange systems under directed graph condition. The common desired trajectory is allowed totally unknown by part of the subsystems and the linearly parameterized trajectory model assumed in currently available results is no longer needed. To compensate the effects due to unknown trajectory information, a smooth function of consensus errors and certain positive integrable functions are introduced in designing virtual control inputs. Besides, to overcome the difficulty of completely counteracting the coupling terms of distributed consensus errors and parameter estimation errors in the presence of asymmetric Laplacian matrix, extra information transmission of local parameter estimates are introduced among linked subsystem and adaptive gain technique is adopted to generate distributed torque inputs. It is shown that with the proposed distributed adaptive control scheme, global uniform boundedness of all the closed-loop signals and asymptotically output consensus tracking can be achieved. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Effect of body mass index on in vitro fertilization outcomes in women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjali Sathya

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background :Obesity has become a major health problem across the world. In women, it is known to cause anovulation, subfecundity, increased risk of fetal anomalies and miscarriage rates. However, in women going for assisted reproduction the effects of obesity on egg quality, embryo quality, clinical pregnancy, live birth rates are controversial. Objectives :To assess the effect of women′s body mass index (BMI on the reproductive outcome of non donor In vitro fertilization (IVF/Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI. The effects of BMI on their gonadotrophin levels (day 2 LH, FSH, gonadotrophin dose required for ovarian stimulation, endometrial thickness and oocyte/embryo quality were looked at, after correcting for age and poor ovarian reserve. Materials and Methods : Retrospective study of medical records of 308 women undergoing non donor IVF cycles in a University affiliated teaching hospital. They were classified into three groups: normal weight (BMI25 30 kg/m 2 . All women underwent controlled ovarian hyper stimulation using long agonist protocol. Results : There were 88 (28.6% in the normal weight group, 147 (47.7% in the overweight and 73 (23.7% in the obese group. All three groups were comparable with respect to age, duration of infertility, female and male causes of infertility. The three groups were similar with respect to day 2 LH/FSH levels, endometrial thickness and gonadotrophin requirements, oocyte quality, fertilization, cleavage rates, number of good quality embryos and clinical pregnancy rates. Conclusion :Increase in body mass index in women does not appear to have an adverse effect on IVF outcome. However, preconceptual counselling for obese women is a must as weight reduction helps in reducing pregnancy-related complications.

  8. Modern medicine and the "uncertain body": from corporeality to hyperreality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, S J

    1997-10-01

    This paper (re)considers the role of medical technology at three interrelated levels: first, the extent to which medical technology renders our bodies increasingly "uncertain" at the turn of the century; second, the analytical purchase which the notion of the (medical) cyborg provides regarding contemporary forms of human embodiment; and finally, at a broader level, the issues this raises in relation to a (late) modernist or postmodernist reading of contemporary medical practice. Key themes here include the plastic body, the bionic body, communal/interchangeable bodies, (genetically) engineered/ chosen bodies, and virtual bodies. The paper concludes with a critical appraisal of these themes and issues, arguing for a late modernist position on medical technology as both a positive and negative rationalising force, and a "life political agenda" in which the "all-too-human" quality of human nature is seen as inviolable.

  9. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines using Uncertain LIDAR Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Soltani, Mohsen; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2013-01-01

    , we simplify state prediction for the MPC. Consequently, the control problem of the nonlinear system is simplified into a quadratic programming. We consider uncertainty in the wind propagation time, which is the traveling time of wind from the LIDAR measurement point to the rotor. An algorithm based......The problem of Model predictive control (MPC) of wind turbines using uncertain LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) measurements is considered. A nonlinear dynamical model of the wind turbine is obtained. We linearize the obtained nonlinear model for different operating points, which are determined...... on wind speed estimation and measurements from the LIDAR is devised to find an estimate of the delay and compensate for it before it is used in the controller. Comparisons between the MPC with error compensation, the MPC without error compensation and an MPC with re-linearization at each sample point...

  10. AN UNCERTAIN FEDERALISM: THE STATES AND THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plein, L Christopher

    2014-01-01

    This article provides an initial assessment of the Affordable Care Act's recent implementation experience in the states. Drawing on state-level and regional analyses that have been coordinated by the ACA Implementation Network--a cooperative effort involving researchers in 35 states--this article highlights the uncertain policy environment associated with the politics and complexities of the ACA. Understanding the ACA implementation experience requires an appreciation for political context, but must also take into account underlying demographic, market, and state administrative capacity issues in the states. There are indications that the ACA implementation experience is moving from a highly charged partisan nature to a more accommodating posture long associated with intergovernmental relations between the federal and state government in health and human services administration. In short, the key questions going forward will turn on how, not whether, the ACA is implemented.

  11. A hybrid land-water-environment model for identification of ecological effect and risk under uncertain meteorological precipitation in an agroforestry ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Xueting; Li, Tienan; Chen, Cong; Si, Zhenjiang; Huang, Guohe; Guo, Ping; Zhuang, Xiaowen

    2018-08-15

    In this study, a hybrid land-water-environment (LWE) model is developed for identifying ecological effect and risk under uncertain precipitation in an agroforestry ecosystem. A simulation-based fuzzy-stochastic programming with risk analysis (SFSR) method is used into LWE model to reflect the meteorological impacts; meanwhile, it also can quantify artificial fuzziness (e.g., risk attitude of policymaker) and natural vagueness (e.g., ecological function) in decision-making. The developed LWE model with SFSR method is applied to a practical agroforestry ecosystem in China. Results of optimized planting scale, irrigative water schedule, pollution mitigation scheme, and system benefit under changed rainfall, precise risk-adoption and vague ecological function are obtained; meanwhile their corresponding ecological effects and risks are analyzed. It found that current LWE plans could generate massive water deficits (e.g., 23.22×10 6 m 3 in crop irrigation and 26.32×10 6 m 3 in forest protection at highest) due to over-cultivation and excessive pollution discharges (e.g., the highest excessive TP and TN discharges would reach 460.64 and 15.30×10 3 ton) due to irrational fertilization, which would increase regional ecological risks. In addition, fifteen scenarios associated with withdrawing cultivation and recovering forest based on regional environment heterogeneity (such as soil types) have been discussed to adjust current agriculture-environment policies. It found that, the excessive pollution discharges (TN and TP) could be reduced 12.95% and 18.32% at highest through ecological expansions, which would generate higher system benefits than that without withdrawing farmland and recovering forest. All above can facilitate local policymakers to modulate a comprehensive LWE with more sustainable and robust manners, achieving regional harmony between socio-economy and eco-environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2013-09-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  13. Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  14. Dermal Squamomelanocytic Tumor: Neoplasm of Uncertain Biological Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirsad Dorić

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available We report a case of exceedingly rare cutaneous neoplasm with histological features of malignancy and uncertain biological potential. The nodular, darkly pigmented facial tumor with central exulceration, size 12x10x7 mm, of the skin 61-year-old man preauricular left was completely exised.Histologically tumor consists of atypical squamous cells, which express signs of moderate to significant pleomorphism, mitotically active, with foci forming of parakeratotic horn cysts (“pearls”. Characteristically tumor also consists of large number of atypical melanocytes with multifocal pattern, inserted between atypical squamous cells, and which contain large amount of dark brown pigment melanin. Immunohistochemically, squamous cells stain positively with keratin (CK116, melanocytes were stained with S -100 protein, HMB 45, and vimentin, but failed to stain with CK 116.To our knowledge this is the sixth reported case in world literature. The follow-up time of four years no evidence of recurrence or metastasis, similar all reported cases, but it is too short period in estimation to guarantee a benign course. However, it appears that this group of neoplasm may have different prognosis from pure squamous carcinoma or malignant melanoma.

  15. Stochastic change detection in uncertain nonlinear systems using reduced-order models: classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Hae-Bum; Masri, Sami F

    2009-01-01

    A reliable structural health monitoring methodology (SHM) is proposed to detect relatively small changes in uncertain nonlinear systems. A total of 4000 physical tests were performed using a complex nonlinear magneto-rheological (MR) damper. With the effective (or 'genuine') changes and uncertainties in the system characteristics of the semi-active MR damper, which were precisely controlled with known means and standard deviation of the input current, the tested MR damper was identified with the restoring force method (RFM), a non-parametric system identification method involving two-dimensional orthogonal polynomials. Using the identified RFM coefficients, both supervised and unsupervised pattern recognition techniques (including support vector classification and k-means clustering) were employed to detect system changes in the MR damper. The classification results showed that the identified coefficients with orthogonal basis function can be used as reliable indicators for detecting (small) changes, interpreting the physical meaning of the detected changes without a priori knowledge of the monitored system and quantifying the uncertainty bounds of the detected changes. The classification errors were analyzed using the standard detection theory to evaluate the performance of the developed SHM methodology. An optimal classifier design procedure was also proposed and evaluated to minimize type II (or 'missed') errors

  16. Asynchronous L1-gain control of uncertain switched positive linear systems with dwell time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Zhang, Hongbin

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, dwell time (DT) stability, L 1 -gain performance analysis and asynchronous L 1 -gain controller design problems of uncertain switched positive linear systems (SPLSs) are investigated. Via a time-scheduled multiple linear co-positive Lyapunov function (TSMLCLF) approach, convex sufficient conditions of DT stability and L 1 -gain performance of SPLSs with interval and polytopic uncertainties are presented. Furthermore, by utilizing the feature that the TSMLCLF keeps decreasing even if the controller is running asynchronously with the system, the asynchronous L 1 -gain controller design problem of SPLSs with interval and polytopic uncertainties is investigated. Convex sufficient conditions of the existence of time-varying asynchronous state-feedback controller which can ensure the closed-loop system's positivity, stability and L 1 -gain performance are established, and the controller gain matrices can be calculated instantaneously online. The obtained L 1 -gain in the paper is standard. All the results are presented in terms of linear programming. A practical example is provided to show the effectiveness of the results. Copyright © 2018 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Effect of low and high glycaemic index drink on sleep pattern in children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jalilolghadr, S.; Afaghi, A.; Connor, H.O.; Chow, C.M.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To evaluate the effect of high and low glycaemic index drinks on children's sleep pattern. Methods: Eight children underwent 3 nights of full polysomnography study, one familiarization and two test nights consecutively. On the test nights, 1 hour before bedtime, the children had a milk drink of either low or high GI in a random order. The glycaemic loads (GL) were 7.4 and 52.8 for low and high GI drink respectively. Results: The mean of total arousal index in the first half of night after the high GI was greater than that of low GI drink. (12.9 +- 4.6 vs. 9.9 +- 2.2, P=0.03). NREM arousal index in the first half of night after the high GI was also higher than that of low GI drink. (12.7+- 4.8 vs. 9.6 +- 2.3, P=0.05). Other sleep parameters did not show any significant difference in low GI and high GI diets. Conclusion: NREM and total arousal indices were higher in those who consumed high GI drinks compared with low GI, one hour before sleep. It seems that the high quantity consumption of carbohydrates close to the bedtime is accompanied by frequent arousals and may affect the sleep quality. (author)

  18. Optimized Data Indexing Algorithms for OLAP Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucian BORNAZ

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The need to process and analyze large data volumes, as well as to convey the information contained therein to decision makers naturally led to the development of OLAP systems. Similarly to SGBDs, OLAP systems must ensure optimum access to the storage environment. Although there are several ways to optimize database systems, implementing a correct data indexing solution is the most effective and less costly. Thus, OLAP uses indexing algorithms for relational data and n-dimensional summarized data stored in cubes. Today database systems implement derived indexing algorithms based on well-known Tree, Bitmap and Hash indexing algorithms. This is because no indexing algorithm provides the best performance for any particular situation (type, structure, data volume, application. This paper presents a new n-dimensional cube indexing algorithm, derived from the well known B-Tree index, which indexes data stored in data warehouses taking in consideration their multi-dimensional nature and provides better performance in comparison to the already implemented Tree-like index types.

  19. The Effects of the Previous Outcome on Probabilistic Choice in Rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the effects of previous outcomes on subsequent choices in a probabilistic-choice task. Twenty-four rats were trained to choose between a certain outcome (1 or 3 pellets) versus an uncertain outcome (3 or 9 pellets), delivered with a probability of .1, .33, .67, and .9 in different phases. Uncertain outcome choices increased with the probability of uncertain food. Additionally, uncertain choices increased with the probability of uncertain food following both certain-choice outcomes and unrewarded uncertain choices. However, following uncertain-choice food outcomes, there was a tendency to choose the uncertain outcome in all cases, indicating that the rats continued to “gamble” after successful uncertain choices, regardless of the overall probability or magnitude of food. A subsequent manipulation, in which the probability of uncertain food varied within each session as a function of the previous uncertain outcome, examined how the previous outcome and probability of uncertain food affected choice in a dynamic environment. Uncertain-choice behavior increased with the probability of uncertain food. The rats exhibited increased sensitivity to probability changes and a greater degree of win–stay/lose–shift behavior than in the static phase. Simulations of two sequential choice models were performed to explore the possible mechanisms of reward value computations. The simulation results supported an exponentially decaying value function that updated as a function of trial (rather than time). These results emphasize the importance of analyzing global and local factors in choice behavior and suggest avenues for the future development of sequential-choice models. PMID:23205915

  20. Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

    2016-05-24

    Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

  1. The potential benefits of location-specific biometeorological indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ho Ting; Wang, Jinfeng; Yin, Qian; Chen, Si; Lai, Poh Chin

    2017-09-01

    It is becoming popular to use biometeorological indexes to study the effects of weather on human health. Most of the biometeorological indexes were developed decades ago and only applicable to certain locations because of different climate types. Merely using standard biometeorological indexes to replace typical weather factors in biometeorological studies of different locations may not be an ideal research direction. This research is aimed at assessing the difference of statistical power between using standard biometeorological indexes and typical weather factors on describing the effects of extreme weather conditions on daily ambulance demands in Hong Kong. Results showed that net effective temperature and apparent temperature did not perform better than typical weather factors in describing daily ambulance demands in this study. The maximum adj- R 2 improvement was only 0.08, whereas the maximum adj- R 2 deterioration was 0.07. In this study, biometeorological indexes did not perform better than typical weather factors, possibly due to the differences of built environments and lifestyles in different locations and eras. Regarding built environments, the original parameters for calculating the index values may not be applicable to Hong Kong as buildings in Hong Kong are extremely dense and most are equipped with air conditioners. Regarding lifestyles, the parameters, which were set decades ago, may be outdated and not suitable to modern lifestyles as using hand-held electrical fans on the street to help reduce heat stress are popular. Hence, it is ideal to have tailor-made updated location-specific biometeorological indexes to study the effects of weather on human health.

  2. The Effect of Gamma Irradiation on Yellowness Index (Y I) and Mechanical Properties in Plastic Food Packaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanhindarto, Rindy P.; I, Dian

    2002-01-01

    An experiment has been done for measuring the yellowness index (Yi) and mechanical properties at food packaging material was caused by gamma irradiation. The samples were obtained from the manufacture. There were three of samples with types of poly acrylonitrile copolymer, PVdC laminated biaxially oriented polypropylene and poly vinyl chloride films. Samples were irradiated at ambient temperature by gamma rays with the doses of 0 up to 100 kGy. Yellowness Index (Yi) of sample was carried out by using chromameter Hunter Lab system. while mechanical properties measuring by stragraph. The purpose of the present experiment was the yellowness index (Yi) and mechanical properties of food packaging material after and before the irradiation. The effects of I year storage on irradiated and unirradiated samples were also investigated. The results showed that best of three samples of plastic food packaging was poly acrylonitrile copolymer film because the Yellowness Index (Yi) and mechanical properties of poly acrylonitrile copolymer did not give any measurable change on the plastic treated by irradiation up to 100 kGy. Storage for 1 year gave some measurable changes of e Yellowness Index (Yi) and mechanical properties on all the samples examined

  3. Multi-criteria indexes to evaluate the effects of repeated organic amendment applications on soil quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obriot, Fiona; Stauffer, Marie; Goubard, Yolaine; Vieuble-Gonod, Laure; Revallier, Agathe; Houot, Sabine

    2015-04-01

    Objectives The soil application of organic waste products (OWP) favours the recycling of nutrients, the crop production, the increase of soil biological activity and biodiversity. It may also lead to soil contamination. All these effects occurred simultaneously and must be considered in the evaluation of the practice. This study aims at deciphering the long-term impact of repeated applications and the short-term effect of an additional application on soil quality using 5 different Soil Quality Indices (SQI)[a]: fertility, microbial activity, biodiversity, physical properties and productivity and one pollution index by heavy metals. Methodology A long term field experiment was used (QualiAgro, Ile de France) where repeated applications of 4 amendments (a municipal solid waste compost, MSW; a biowaste compost, BIO; a co-compost of sewage sludge and green waste, GWS and a farmyard manure, FYM) have differentiated soil characteristics and crop production compared to a control treatments without organic residue and receiving mineral fertilizer or not (CONT+N and CONT). The OWP are applied every 2 years, in September, at doses equivalent to 4 t C/ha (4 replicates) on a maize-wheat succession. We used 2 sampling dates: 3 weeks before application (cumulative residual effect of 7 applications) and 3 weeks just after the 8th application (short-term additional effect of a recent application), in 2011. More than 30 different variables were used: chemical (pH, Polsen…), physical (bulk density, plasticity…) and biological (microbial biomass, enzymatic activity…) soil indicators. All of these were classified in 6 classes: fertility, microbial activity, biodiversity, physical properties, productivity and pollution. Five SQI and one pollution index by heavy metals were estimated using a weighted additive index calculation method described by Velasquez et al. (2007)[a]. Only parameters with statistically significant differences (peffect on the SQI. Physical properties

  4. Impact of uncertain head tissue conductivity in the optimization of transcranial direct current stimulation for an auditory target

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Christian; Wagner, Sven; Burger, Martin; van Rienen, Ursula; Wolters, Carsten H.

    2015-08-01

    Objective. Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a non-invasive brain stimulation technique to modify neural excitability. Using multi-array tDCS, we investigate the influence of inter-individually varying head tissue conductivity profiles on optimal electrode configurations for an auditory cortex stimulation. Approach. In order to quantify the uncertainty of the optimal electrode configurations, multi-variate generalized polynomial chaos expansions of the model solutions are used based on uncertain conductivity profiles of the compartments skin, skull, gray matter, and white matter. Stochastic measures, probability density functions, and sensitivity of the quantities of interest are investigated for each electrode and the current density at the target with the resulting stimulation protocols visualized on the head surface. Main results. We demonstrate that the optimized stimulation protocols are only comprised of a few active electrodes, with tolerable deviations in the stimulation amplitude of the anode. However, large deviations in the order of the uncertainty in the conductivity profiles could be noted in the stimulation protocol of the compensating cathodes. Regarding these main stimulation electrodes, the stimulation protocol was most sensitive to uncertainty in skull conductivity. Finally, the probability that the current density amplitude in the auditory cortex target region is supra-threshold was below 50%. Significance. The results suggest that an uncertain conductivity profile in computational models of tDCS can have a substantial influence on the prediction of optimal stimulation protocols for stimulation of the auditory cortex. The investigations carried out in this study present a possibility to predict the probability of providing a therapeutic effect with an optimized electrode system for future auditory clinical and experimental procedures of tDCS applications.

  5. Stochastic analysis of uncertain thermal parameters for random thermal regime of frozen soil around a single freezing pipe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tao; Zhou, Guoqing; Wang, Jianzhou; Zhou, Lei

    2018-03-01

    The artificial ground freezing method (AGF) is widely used in civil and mining engineering, and the thermal regime of frozen soil around the freezing pipe affects the safety of design and construction. The thermal parameters can be truly random due to heterogeneity of the soil properties, which lead to the randomness of thermal regime of frozen soil around the freezing pipe. The purpose of this paper is to study the one-dimensional (1D) random thermal regime problem on the basis of a stochastic analysis model and the Monte Carlo (MC) method. Considering the uncertain thermal parameters of frozen soil as random variables, stochastic processes and random fields, the corresponding stochastic thermal regime of frozen soil around a single freezing pipe are obtained and analyzed. Taking the variability of each stochastic parameter into account individually, the influences of each stochastic thermal parameter on stochastic thermal regime are investigated. The results show that the mean temperatures of frozen soil around the single freezing pipe with three analogy method are the same while the standard deviations are different. The distributions of standard deviation have a great difference at different radial coordinate location and the larger standard deviations are mainly at the phase change area. The computed data with random variable method and stochastic process method have a great difference from the measured data while the computed data with random field method well agree with the measured data. Each uncertain thermal parameter has a different effect on the standard deviation of frozen soil temperature around the single freezing pipe. These results can provide a theoretical basis for the design and construction of AGF.

  6. Author's capabilities in author indexing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ooi, Shoichi

    1988-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a author capability of current author indexing practices in journal literature indexing practices in 'Journal of Nuclear Science and Technology of Japan'. This Journal employed keywords freely assigned by author and not taken from INIS Thesaurus or other vocabulary list. Author examined 413 literatures, comparing keywords assigned by the literatures' authors with descriptor's (ATOMINDEX) assigned by an experienced professional indexer. The results of the comparisons showed that the average set of terms assigned by author included about 70% of all the terms assigned to the same literature by the professional indexer. Authors eventually would contribute, for the most effective point to create reference to information is at the time of its generation. Consequently, it may be possible to transfer them easily to descriptors in every secondary information system. (author)

  7. The doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for uncertain clinical decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond-Brown, Lauren

    2016-06-01

    Medical uncertainty is a well-recognized problem in healthcare, yet how doctors make decisions in the face of uncertainty remains to be understood. This article draws on interdisciplinary literature on uncertainty and physician decision-making to examine a specific physician response to uncertainty: using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit. Additionally, I ask what happens to this process when the doctor-patient relationship becomes fragmented. I answer these questions by examining obstetrician-gynecologists' narratives regarding how they make decisions when faced with uncertainty in childbirth. Between 2013 and 2014, I performed 21 semi-structured interviews with obstetricians in the United States. Obstetricians were selected to maximize variation in relevant physician, hospital, and practice characteristics. I began with grounded theory and moved to analytical coding of themes in relation to relevant literature. My analysis renders it evident that some physicians use the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for dealing with uncertainty. I analyze how this process varies for physicians in different models of care by comparing doctors' experiences in models with continuous versus fragmented doctor-patient relationships. My key findings are that obstetricians in both models appealed to the ideal of patient-centered decision-making to cope with uncertain decisions, but in practice physicians in fragmented care faced a number of challenges to using the doctor-patient relationship as a toolkit for decision-making. These challenges led to additional uncertainties and in some cases to poor outcomes for doctors and/or patients; they also raised concerns about the reproduction of inequality. Thus organization of care delivery mitigates the efficacy of doctors' use of the doctor-patient relationship toolkit for uncertain decisions. These findings have implications for theorizing about decision-making under conditions of medical uncertainty, for understanding

  8. Microcomputer software for calculating an elk habitat effectiveness index on Blue Mountain winter ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark Hitchcock; Alan. Ager

    1992-01-01

    National Forests in the Pacific Northwest Region have incorporated elk habitat standards into Forest plans to ensure that elk habitat objectives are met on multiple use land allocations. Many Forests have employed versions of the habitat effectiveness index (HEI) as a standard method to evaluate habitat. Field application of the HEI model unfortunately is a formidable...

  9. A study on the effect of macroeconomics instability index on private investment in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aziz Saki

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we perform an empirical study to investigate the impact of economical stability on the amount of investment coming from the private sector. We calculate macroeconomics instability index (MIX using the existing methods in the literature. We have also used Glezakos (1973 method [Glezakos,C.(1973. Export instability and economic growth: A statistical verification. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21(3, 670-678.], which considers long-term deviation of real values as instability index. Therefore, we use four variables of inflation rate (TINF, the ratio of budget deficit on growth domestic product (GDP (TBD, foreign debt on GDP (TFD and the ratio of actual currency rate on nominate currency (TFD. The preliminary results show that the short-term changes on LNIP with one lag and LNIV have positive impact on LNIP. In addition, any short term changes on LNMII has negative and meaningful impact on LNIP and approximately 0.67 percent of difference between the actual and long term are discounted in each period. The results indicate that instability index has negative effect even in short term on Iran's industry. This shows the relevant importance of instability on economy.

  10. The effect of gastric band slippage on patient body mass index and quality of life.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Sahebally, Shaheel M

    2012-05-01

    Laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB) is a popular surgical procedure for the management of morbid obesity. Gastric band slippage (GBS) is the most common long-term complication. In this study, the effect of GBS on body mass index (BMI) and quality of life (QOL) were assessed.

  11. The Cognitive Mobilization Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Alaminos

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article shows how the cognitive mobilization index, designed for use in observing potential political participation, can be used as an indicator of the political climate that a particular society is going through. Following a discussion of the theoretical elaborations (and their working definitions of the concept of cognitive mobilization, a longitudinal study of various European countries is used to consider the question of how political crises influence cognitive mobilization indexes and what effects they have on the political socialization process among the youngest cohorts.

  12. Parallel In Situ Indexing for Data-intensive Computing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jinoh; Abbasi, Hasan; Chacon, Luis; Docan, Ciprian; Klasky, Scott; Liu, Qing; Podhorszki, Norbert; Shoshani, Arie; Wu, Kesheng

    2011-09-09

    As computing power increases exponentially, vast amount of data is created by many scientific re- search activities. However, the bandwidth for storing the data to disks and reading the data from disks has been improving at a much slower pace. These two trends produce an ever-widening data access gap. Our work brings together two distinct technologies to address this data access issue: indexing and in situ processing. From decades of database research literature, we know that indexing is an effective way to address the data access issue, particularly for accessing relatively small fraction of data records. As data sets increase in sizes, more and more analysts need to use selective data access, which makes indexing an even more important for improving data access. The challenge is that most implementations of in- dexing technology are embedded in large database management systems (DBMS), but most scientific datasets are not managed by any DBMS. In this work, we choose to include indexes with the scientific data instead of requiring the data to be loaded into a DBMS. We use compressed bitmap indexes from the FastBit software which are known to be highly effective for query-intensive workloads common to scientific data analysis. To use the indexes, we need to build them first. The index building procedure needs to access the whole data set and may also require a significant amount of compute time. In this work, we adapt the in situ processing technology to generate the indexes, thus removing the need of read- ing data from disks and to build indexes in parallel. The in situ data processing system used is ADIOS, a middleware for high-performance I/O. Our experimental results show that the indexes can improve the data access time up to 200 times depending on the fraction of data selected, and using in situ data processing system can effectively reduce the time needed to create the indexes, up to 10 times with our in situ technique when using identical parallel settings.

  13. Global Solar UV Index (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repacholi, M.H.

    2000-01-01

    Excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure produces a significant burden of disease to the skin, eyes and immune system. Effective programmes for the reduction of UV exposure are needed to reduce this disease burden and the associated health care costs. The UV index is seen as an effective tool for communicating important protection information to the public through its use in media news and weather information. The index is described and it is suggested that universally common messages should be associated with its ranges. (author)

  14. Refractive index modulation based on excitonic effects in GaInAs-InP coupled asymmetric quantum wells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thirstrup, Carsten

    1995-01-01

    The effect of excitons in GaInAs-InP coupled asymmetric quantum wells on the refractive index modulation, is analyzed numerically using a model based on the effective mass approximation. It is shown that two coupled quantum wells brought in resonance by an applied electric field will, due...

  15. Electric Car Users’ Time of Charging Problem under Peak Load Pricing When Delay in Charging Time Involves Uncertain Cost

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fetene, Gebeyehu Manie

    The problem of peak load arises when demand fluctuates over time while the pro- duction technology is not flexible (or making it flexible is economically inefficient) and/or when a product is non-storable (or storage cost is huge). Peak load is a com- mon problem in consumption of public utilities......, on the one hand, observed cost saving benefit of postponing the time of charging to off-peak lower fee of charging and, on the other hand, the cost of delay in departure time for planned trips and uncertain cost of late charging associated with likelihood occur- rence of unanticipated trip before the car...... of electricity. The electric vehicle (EV) users choice of time of charging problem under PLP is different from that of general households using energy for house appliances since there is uncertain cost to the former as- sociated with likelihood occurrence of unanticipated trips such as visiting hospital...

  16. Effective spectral index properties for Fermi blazars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, JiangHe; Fan, JunHui; Liu, Yi; Zhang, YueLian; Tuo, ManXian; Nie, JianJun; Yuan, YuHai

    2018-05-01

    Blazars are a special subclass of active galactic nuclei with extreme observation properties. This subclass can be divided into two further subclasses of flat spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) and BL Lacertae objects (BL Lacs) according to their emission line features. To compare the spectral properties of FSRQs and BL Lacs, the 1.4 GHz radio, optical R-band, 1 keV X-ray, and 1 GeV γ-ray flux densities for 1108 Fermi blazars are calculated to discuss the properties of the six effective spectral indices of radio to optical ( α RO), radio to X-ray ( α RX), radio to γ ray ( α Rγ), optical to X-ray ( α OX), optical to γ ray ( α Oγ), and X-ray to γ ray ( α Xγ). The main results are as follows: For the averaged effective spectral indices, \\overline {{α _{OX}}} > \\overline {{α _{Oγ }}} > \\overline {{α _{Xγ }}} > \\overline {{α _{Rγ }}} > \\overline {{α _{RX}}} > \\overline {{α _{RO}}} for samples of whole blazars and BL Lacs; \\overline {{α _{Xγ }}} ≈ \\overline {{α _{Rγ }}} ≈ \\overline {{α _{RX}}} for FSRQs and low-frequency-peaked BL Lacs (LBLs); and \\overline {{α _{OX}}} ≈ \\overline {{α _{Oγ }}} ≈ \\overline {{α _{Xγ }}} for high-synchrotron-frequency-peaked BL Lacs (HBLs). The distributions of the effective spectral indices involving optical emission ( α RO, α OX, and α Oγ) for LBLs are different from those for FSRQs, but if the effective spectral index does not involve optical emission ( α RX, α Rγ, and α Xγ), the distributions for LBLs and FSRQs almost come from the same parent population. X-ray emissions from blazars include both synchrotron and inverse Compton (IC) components; the IC component for FSRQs and LBLs accounts for a larger proportion than that for HBLs; and the radiation mechanism for LBLs is similar to that for FSRQs, but the radiation mechanism for HBLs is different from that for both FSRQs and LBLs in X-ray bands. The tendency of α Rγ decreasing from LBLs to HBLs suggests that the synchrotron self

  17. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves; Pierru, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO 2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO 2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO 2 policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO 2 emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO 2 emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO 2 emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

  18. Effective spectral dispersion of refractive index modulation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vojtíšek, Petr; Květoň, M.; Richter, I.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 4 (2017), č. článku 045603. ISSN 2040-8978 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1206 Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : volume gratings * holography * dispersion * refractive index modulation Subject RIV: BH - Optics, Masers, Lasers OBOR OECD: Optics (including laser optics and quantum optics) Impact factor: 1.741, year: 2016 http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2040-8986/aa6092/meta

  19. Effect of strain rate on sooting limits in counterflow diffusion flames of gaseous hydrocarbon fuels: Sooting temperature index and sooting sensitivity index

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Yu

    2014-05-01

    The effect of the strain rate on the sooting limits in counterflow diffusion flames was investigated in various gaseous hydrocarbon fuels by varying the nitrogen dilution in the fuel and oxidizer streams. The sooting limit was defined as the critical fuel and oxygen mole fraction at which soot started to appear in the elastic light scattering signal. The sooting region for normal alkane fuels at a specified strain rate, in terms of the fuel and oxygen mole fraction, expanded as the number of carbon atoms increased. The alkene fuels (ethylene, propene) tested had a higher propensity for sooting as compared with alkane fuels with the same carbon numbers (ethane, propane). Branched iso-butane had a higher propensity for sooting than did n-butane. An increase in the strain rate reduced the tendency for sooting in all the fuels tested. The sensitivity of the sooting limit to the strain rate was more pronounced for less sooting fuels. When plotted in terms of calculated flame temperature, the critical oxygen mole fraction exhibited an Arrhenius form under sooting limit conditions, which can be utilized to significantly reduce the effort required to determine sooting limits at different strain rates. We found that the limiting temperatures of soot formation flames are viable sooting metrics for quantitatively rating the sooting tendency of various fuels, based on comparisons with threshold soot index and normalized smoke point data. We also introduce a sooting temperature index and a sooting sensitivity index, two quantitative measures to describe sooting propensity and its dependence on strain rate. © 2013 The Combustion Institute.

  20. Novel stability criteria for uncertain delayed Cohen-Grossberg neural networks using discretized Lyapunov functional

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, Fernando O.; Palhares, Reinaldo M.; Ekel, Petr Ya.

    2009-01-01

    This paper deals with the stability analysis of delayed uncertain Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (CGNN). The proposed methodology consists in obtaining new robust stability criteria formulated as linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) via the Lyapunov-Krasovskii theory. Particularly one stability criterion is derived from the selection of a parameter-dependent Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, which allied with the Gu's discretization technique and a simple strategy that decouples the system matrices from the functional matrices, assures a less conservative stability condition. Two computer simulations are presented to support the improved theoretical results.

  1. Effect of Refractive Index of Substrate on Fabrication and Optical Properties of Hybrid Au-Ag Triangular Nanoparticle Arrays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Liu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, the nanosphere lithography (NSL method was used to fabricate hybrid Au-Ag triangular periodic nanoparticle arrays. The Au-Ag triangular periodic arrays were grown on different substrates, and the effect of the refractive index of substrates on fabrication and optical properties was systematically investigated. At first, the optical spectrum was simulated by the discrete dipole approximation (DDA numerical method as a function of refractive indexes of substrates and mediums. Simulation results showed that as the substrates had the refractive indexes of 1.43 (quartz and 1.68 (SF5 glass, the nanoparticle arrays would have better refractive index sensitivity (RIS and figure of merit (FOM. Simulation results also showed that the peak wavelength of the extinction spectra had a red shift when the medium’s refractive index n increased. The experimental results also demonstrated that when refractive indexes of substrates were 1.43 and 1.68, the nanoparticle arrays and substrate had better adhesive ability. Meanwhile, we found the nanoparticles formed a large-scale monolayer array with the hexagonally close-packed structure. Finally, the hybrid Au-Ag triangular nanoparticle arrays were fabricated on quartz and SF5 glass substrates and their experiment extinction spectra were compared with the simulated results.

  2. Pharmaceutical policies: effects of financial incentives for prescribers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashidian, Arash; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Vali, Yasaman; Sturm, Heidrun; Oxman, Andrew D

    2015-08-04

    The proportion of total healthcare expenditures spent on drugs has continued to grow in countries of all income categories. Policy-makers are under pressure to control pharmaceutical expenditures without adversely affecting quality of care. Financial incentives seeking to influence prescribers' behaviour include budgetary arrangements at primary care and hospital settings (pharmaceutical budget caps or targets), financial rewards for target behaviours or outcomes (pay for performance interventions) and reduced benefit margin for prescribers based on medicine sales and prescriptions (pharmaceutical reimbursement rate reduction policies). This is the first update of the original version of this review. To determine the effects of pharmaceutical policies using financial incentives to influence prescribers' practices on drug use, healthcare utilisation, health outcomes and costs (expenditures). We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (searched 29/01/2015); MEDLINE, Ovid SP (searched 29/01/2015); EMBASE, Ovid SP (searched 29/01/2015); International Network for Rational Use of Drugs (INRUD) Bibliography (searched 29/01/2015); National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database (searched 29/01/2015); EconLit - ProQuest (searched 02/02/2015); and Science Citation Index and Social Sciences Citation Index, Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge (citation search for included studies searched 10/02/2015). We screened the reference lists of relevant reports and contacted study authors and organisations to identify additional studies. We included policies that intend to affect prescribing by means of financial incentives for prescribers. Included in this category are pharmaceutical budget caps or targets, pay for performance and drug reimbursement rate reductions and other financial policies, if they were specifically targeted at prescribing or drug utilisation. Policies in this review were defined as laws, rules

  3. Effect of preload alternations on a new Doppler echocardiographic index of combined systolic and diastolic performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, J E; Poulsen, S H; Egstrup, K

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the study was to assess the effect of preload alternations on a nongeometric Doppler index of combined systolic and diastolic myocardial performance (MPI). Doppler echocardiography was performed during Valsalva maneuver, passive leg lifting, and after sublingual administration of...

  4. Browse Title Index

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Items 751 - 800 of 846 ... Journal Home > Advanced Search > Browse Title Index ... Vol 9, No 3S (2017): Special Issue, The effect of torrefaction on oil palm ... core competency skills of IRBM tax auditors towards their performance, Abstract PDF ... of exchange rates behavior in Malaysia by using NATREX model, Abstract PDF.

  5. Effect of exhalation exercise on trunk muscle activity and oswestry disability index of patients with chronic low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Jeong-Il; Jeong, Dae-Keun; Choi, Hyun

    2016-06-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated the effect of exhalation exercises on trunk muscle activity and Oswestry Disability Index by inducing trunk muscle activity through increasing intra-abdominal pressure and activating muscles, contributing to spinal stability. [Subjects and Methods] This intervention program included 20 male patients with chronic low back pain. A total of 10 subjects each were randomly assigned to an exhalation exercise group as the experimental group and a spinal stabilization exercise group as the control group. [Results] There were significant differences in the activities of the rectus abdominis, transverse abdominis, external oblique abdominal, and erector spinae muscles as well as in the Oswestry Disability Index within the experimental group. There were meaningful differences in the activities of the rectus abdominis, external oblique abdominal, and erector spinae muscles and in the Oswestry Disability Index within the control group. In addition, there was a meaningful intergroup difference in transverse abdominis muscle activity alone and in the Oswestry Disability Index. [Conclusion] The breathing exercise effectively increased muscle activity by training gross and fine motor muscles in the trunk. Moreover, it was verified as a very important element for strengthening body stability because it both released and prevented low back pain.

  6. New index based on the physical separation of motion into three categories for characterizing the effect of cocaine in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoji, Hiroto; Nakatomi, Yasuhiro; Yokoyama, Chihiro; Fukui, Kenji; Hanai, Kazumitsu

    2013-09-21

    Characterization of open-field behavior and locomotor activity is widely used to assess the influence of a drug on mouse or rat behavior. In this study, we developed an index for characterizing the behavior of cocaine-administered mice (C57BL/6, DBA/2, and BALB/c). Because a three-exponential-model exhibited the best fit to the obtained data among the different probability density functions, we divided each walking episode into three categories according to the duration of movement. We found a significant difference in decay variation of mean speed with time in the case of long walking duration. To clarify this difference quantitatively, we developed an index for the changes in locomotion control, based on a heuristic argument regarding the ratio of the coefficients of the drag term obtained by the biphasic motion-equation model. The index had a significant dose-related effect in each strain and a significant strain effect in high-concentration drug. Therefore, it would thus be useful for examining the effect of the drug on locomotor activity in mice. Moreover, evaluating other characters suggested previously, the proposed index had good advantage to differentiate the dose-related response in the three species of inbred mice. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The effect of two dosage of BCAA supplementation on wrestlers’ serum indexes on cellular injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramin Amirsasan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: A few studies were done to examine the effect of different dosage of branched-chain amino acid (BCAA supplementation on serum indexes of muscle injury in wrestlers. The purpose of this research was to compare the effects of two dosage of branched-chain amino acid supplementation on muscle serumic damage indexes after heavy resistance exercise in wrestlers.Materials and Method: Twenty-nine young wrestlers were randomly selected and divided into three groups. All subjects were participated in heavy resistance exercise (3 sets, 10 repetitions, 80% 1RM. The BCAA was given at doses of 210 and 450 mg/kg for supplemental groups 1 and 2 respectively, 30 minutes before and after to exercise test and dextrin was given at dose of 210 mg/kg for control group. To identify enzymes activity (IU/L, venous blood samples were obtained 30 min prior to exercise and at 24 and 48 hrs after exercise. Data were statistically analyzed using ANOVA with repeated measures and Bonfferoni post hoc test (p≥ 0.05.Results: Based on this study results, CPK, LDH, CPKMB activity were significantly increased (p<0.05 in all groups. CPK, LDH, CPKMB indexes having the highest activity in the control group, but there were no significant differences between all groups. Conclusion: These results provide evidence that the use of two different dosage of BCAA could not decrease muscle damage associated with heavy resistance exercise

  8. Fractional-order sliding mode control for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems based on LQR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Zhang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a new fractional-order sliding mode control (FOSMC strategy based on a linear-quadratic regulator (LQR for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. First, input/output feedback linearization is used to linearize the nonlinear system and decouple tracking error dynamics. Second, LQR is designed to ensure that the tracking error dynamics converges to the equilibrium point as soon as possible. Based on LQR, a novel fractional-order sliding surface is introduced. Subsequently, the FOSMC is designed to reject system uncertainties and reduce the magnitude of control chattering. Then, the global stability of the closed-loop control system is analytically proved using Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, a typical single-input single-output system and a typical multi-input multi-output system are simulated to illustrate the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed control strategy. The results of the simulation indicate that the proposed control strategy exhibits excellent performance and robustness with system uncertainties. Compared to conventional integer-order sliding mode control, the high-frequency chattering of the control input is drastically depressed.

  9. Effects of substorms on the stormtime ring current index Dst

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Rostoker

    Full Text Available There has been some discussion in recent times regarding whether or not substorm expansive phase activity plays any role of importance in the formation of the stormtime ring current. I explore this question using the Kp index as a proxy for substorm expansive phase activity and the Dst index as a proxy for symmetric ring current strength. I find that increases in Dst are mildly related to the strength of substorm expansive phase activity during the development of the storm main phase. More surprisingly, I find that the strength of Dst during the storm recovery phase is positively correlated with the strength of substorm expansive phase activity. This result has an important bearing on the question of how much the Dst index reflects activity other than that of the stormtime symmetric ring current strength for which it is supposed to be a proxy.Key words: Ionosphere (electric fields and currents - Magnetospheric physics (current systems; storms and substorms

  10. Effects of substorms on the stormtime ring current index Dst

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Rostoker

    2000-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been some discussion in recent times regarding whether or not substorm expansive phase activity plays any role of importance in the formation of the stormtime ring current. I explore this question using the Kp index as a proxy for substorm expansive phase activity and the Dst index as a proxy for symmetric ring current strength. I find that increases in Dst are mildly related to the strength of substorm expansive phase activity during the development of the storm main phase. More surprisingly, I find that the strength of Dst during the storm recovery phase is positively correlated with the strength of substorm expansive phase activity. This result has an important bearing on the question of how much the Dst index reflects activity other than that of the stormtime symmetric ring current strength for which it is supposed to be a proxy.Key words: Ionosphere (electric fields and currents - Magnetospheric physics (current systems; storms and substorms

  11. Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Lee

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric models is necessary to identify the processes that lead to uncertainty in model predictions, to help understand model diversity through comparison of driving processes, and to prioritise research. Assessing the effect of parameter uncertainty in complex models is challenging and often limited by CPU constraints. Here we present a cost-effective application of variance-based sensitivity analysis to quantify the sensitivity of a 3-D global aerosol model to uncertain parameters. A Gaussian process emulator is used to estimate the model output across multi-dimensional parameter space, using information from a small number of model runs at points chosen using a Latin hypercube space-filling design. Gaussian process emulation is a Bayesian approach that uses information from the model runs along with some prior assumptions about the model behaviour to predict model output everywhere in the uncertainty space. We use the Gaussian process emulator to calculate the percentage of expected output variance explained by uncertainty in global aerosol model parameters and their interactions. To demonstrate the technique, we show examples of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN sensitivity to 8 model parameters in polluted and remote marine environments as a function of altitude. In the polluted environment 95 % of the variance of CCN concentration is described by uncertainty in the 8 parameters (excluding their interaction effects and is dominated by the uncertainty in the sulphur emissions, which explains 80 % of the variance. However, in the remote region parameter interaction effects become important, accounting for up to 40 % of the total variance. Some parameters are shown to have a negligible individual effect but a substantial interaction effect. Such sensitivities would not be detected in the commonly used single parameter perturbation experiments, which would therefore underpredict total uncertainty. Gaussian process

  12. Effect of changes in contractility on the index of myocardial performance in the dysfunctional left ventricle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavine Steven J

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The index of myocardial performance has prognostic power in patients with cardiomyopathy and following myocardial infarction. As the index of myocardial performance has been shown to be preload and afterload dependent, the effect of altering contractility on IMP and its components with left ventricular dysfunction has been incompletely delineated. Methods Chronic left ventricular dysfunction was induced in 10 canines using coronary microsphere embolization. Each dog was instrumented and imaged with 2D echo and Doppler. At the same atrially paced rate, contractility was increased with a dobutamine infusion and then following 4 weeks of oral digoxin. Results With chronic left ventricular dysfunction, a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (42 ± 3%, p Conclusion Increased inotropy with digoxin and dobutamine reduced the index of myocardial performance in dogs with left ventricular dysfunction. Shortened isovolumic contraction time, increased diastolic filling period, and reduced left ventricular end diastolic pressure with digoxin may provide insight into its efficacy in heart failure.

  13. Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Gregory F; Visweswaran, Shyam

    2005-01-01

    Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.

  14. Finite-Time H∞ Filtering for Linear Continuous Time-Varying Systems with Uncertain Observations

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    Huihong Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the finite-time H∞ filtering problem for linear continuous time-varying systems with uncertain observations and ℒ2-norm bounded noise. The design of finite-time H∞ filter is equivalent to the problem that a certain indefinite quadratic form has a minimum and the filter is such that the minimum is positive. The quadratic form is related to a Krein state-space model according to the Krein space linear estimation theory. By using the projection theory in Krein space, the finite-time H∞ filtering problem is solved. A numerical example is given to illustrate the performance of the H∞ filter.

  15. Clinical impact of confocal laser endomicroscopy in the management of gastrointestinal lesions with an uncertain diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robles-Medranda, Carlos; Vargas, Maria; Ospina, Jesenia; Puga-Tejada, Miguel; Valero, Manuel; Soria, Miguel; Bravo, Gladys; Robles-Jara, Carlos; Lukashok, Hannah Pitanga

    2017-08-16

    To evaluate the clinical impact of confocal laser endomicroscopy (CLE) in the diagnosis and management of patients with an uncertain diagnosis. A retrospective chart review was performed. Patients who underwent CLE between November 2013 and October 2015 and exhibited a poor correlation between endoscopic and histological findings were included. Baseline characteristics, indications, previous diagnostic studies, findings at the time of CLE, clinical management and histological results were analyzed. Interventions based on CLE findings were also analyzed. We compared the diagnostic accuracy of CLE and target biopsies of surgical specimens. A total of 144 patients were included. Of these, 51% (74/144) were female. The mean age was 51 years old. In all, 41/144 (28.4%) lesions were neoplastic (13 bile duct, 10 gastric, 8 esophageal, 6 colonic, 1 duodenal, 1 rectal, 1 ampulloma and 1 pancreatic). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and observed agreement when CLE was used to detect N-lesions were 85.37%, 87.38%, 72.92%, 93.75% and 86.81%, respectively. Cohen's Kappa was 69.20%, thus indicating good agreement. Changes in management were observed in 54% of the cases. CLE is a new diagnostic tool that has a significant clinical impact on the diagnosis and treatment of patients with uncertain diagnosis.

  16. Making choice between competing rewards in uncertain versus safe social environment:role of neuronal nicotinic receptors of acetylcholine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan eChabout

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In social environments, choosing between multiple rewards is modulated by the uncertainty of the situation. Here, we compared how mice interact with a conspecific and how they use acoustic communication during this interaction in a 3 chambers task (no social threat was possible and a Social Interaction Task, SIT (uncertain situation as two mice interact freely. We further manipulated the motivational state of the mice to see how they rank natural rewards such as social contact, food, and novelty seeking. We previously showed that beta2-subunit containing nicotinic receptors -2*nAChRs- are required for establishing reward ranking between social interaction, novelty exploration, and food consumption in social situations with high uncertainty. Knockout mice for 2*nAChRs -2-/-mice- exhibit profound impairment in making social flexible choices, as compared to control -WT- mice.Our current data shows that being confronted with a conspecific in a socially safe environment as compared to a more uncertain environment, drastically reduced communication between the two mice, and changed their way to deal with a social conspecific. Furthermore, we demonstrated for the first time, that 2-/- mice had the same motivational ranking than WT mice when placed in a socially safe environment. Therefore,2*nAChRs are not necessary for integrating social information or social rewards per se, but are important for making choices, only in a socially uncertain environment.This seems particularly important in the context of Social Neuroscience, as numerous animal models are used to provide novel insights and to test promising novel treatments of human pathologies affecting social and communication processes, among which Autistic spectrum disorders and schizophrenia.

  17. Decision Making in Uncertain Rural Scenarios by means of Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Armero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A great deal of uncertain information which is difficult to quantify is taken into account by farmers and experts in the enterprise when making decisions. We are interested in the problems of the implementation of a rabbit-breeding farm. One of the first decisions to be taken refers to the design or type of structure for housing the animals, which is determined by the level of environmental control sought to be maintained in its interior. A farmer was consulted, and his answers were incorporated into the analysis, by means of the fuzzy TOPSIS methodology. The main purpose of this paper is to study the problem by means of the fuzzy TOPSIS method as multicriteria decision making, when the information was given in linguistic terms.

  18. Effect of surface roughness variation on the transmission characteristics of D-shaped fibers with ambient index change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyun-Joo; Kwon, Oh-Jang; Han, Young-Geun

    2010-01-01

    The influence of surface roughness on the sensitivity of D-shaped fibers to changes in the ambient index was investigated. In order to obtain D-shaped fibers with different surface roughness, we polished one side of the fibers by using different abrasive grits. The topographies of the surfaces of the polished D-shaped fibers were then observed by using atomic force microscopy (AFM). The light scattered from the rough surfaces of the D-shaped fibers was measured by using optical microscopy. The effect of an ambient index change on the transmission characteristics of D-shaped fibers was measured for various values of the surface roughness. The experimental results indicate that variations in the surface roughness have a considerable influence on the sensitivity of the transmission characteristics of D-shaped fibers to changes in the ambient index.

  19. An edge index for the quantum spin-Hall effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prodan, Emil

    2009-01-01

    Quantum spin-Hall systems are topological insulators displaying dissipationless spin currents flowing at the edges of the samples. In contradistinction to the quantum Hall systems where the charge conductance of the edge modes is quantized, the spin conductance is not and it remained an open problem to find the observable whose edge current is quantized. In this paper, we define a particular observable and the edge current corresponding to this observable. We show that this current is quantized and that the quantization is given by the index of a certain Fredholm operator. This provides a new topological invariant that is shown to take the generic values 0 and 2, in line with the Z 2 topological classification of time-reversal invariant systems. The result gives an effective tool for the investigation of the edge structure in quantum spin-Hall systems. Based on a reasonable assumption, we also show that the edge conducting channels are not destroyed by a random edge. (fast track communication)

  20. Child Maltreatment, Impulsivity, and Antisocial Behavior in African-American Children: Moderation Effects from a Cumulative Dopaminergic Gene Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibodeau, Eric L.; Cicchetti, Dante; Rogosch, Fred A.

    2015-01-01

    A model examining the effects of an increasing number of maltreatment subtypes experienced on antisocial behavior, as mediated by impulsivity and moderated by a polygenic index of dopaminergic genotypes, was investigated. An African American sample of children (N = 1012, M age = 10.07) with and without maltreatment histories participated. Indicators of aggression, delinquency, and disruptive peer behavior were obtained from peer and counselor rated measures to form a latent variable of antisocial behavior; impulsivity was assessed by counselor report. Five genotypes in four dopaminergic genes (DRD4, DRD2, DAT1, and COMT) conferring heightened environmental sensitivity were combined into one polygenic index. Using SEM, a first-stage, moderated-mediation model was evaluated. Age and sex were entered as covariates, both as main effects and in interaction with maltreatment and the gene index. The model had excellent fit: χ2(32, N =1012) = 86..51, pmaltreatment subtypes on antisocial behavior was partially mediated by impulsivity (β= 0.173, pmaltreatment and impulsivity was stronger as children evinced more differentiating genotypes, thereby strengthening the mediational effect of impulsivity on antisocial behavior. These findings elucidate the manner by which maltreated children develop early signs of antisocial behavior, and the genetic mechanisms involved in greater vulnerability for maladaptation in impulse-control within context of child maltreatment. PMID:26535948