WorldWideScience

Sample records for effect risk estimates

  1. The effects of communicating uncertainty in quantitative health risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longman, Thea; Turner, Robin M; King, Madeleine; McCaffery, Kirsten J

    2012-11-01

    To examine the effects of communicating uncertainty in quantitative health risk estimates on participants' understanding, risk perception and perceived credibility of risk information source. 120 first year psychology students were given a hypothetical health-care scenario, with source of risk information (clinician, pharmaceutical company) varied between subjects and uncertainty (point, small range and large range risk estimate format) varied within subjects. The communication of uncertainty in the form of both a small and large range resulted in a reduction in accurate understanding and increased perceptions of risk when a large range was communicated compared to a point estimate. It also reduced perceptions of credibility of the information source, though for the clinician this was only the case when a large range was presented. The findings suggest that even for highly educated adults, communicating uncertainty as a range risk estimate has the potential to negatively affect understanding, increase risk perceptions and decrease perceived credibility. Communicating uncertainty in risk using a numeric range should be carefully considered by health-care providers. More research is needed to develop alternative strategies to effectively communicate the uncertainty in health risks to consumers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk estimates for bone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlenker, R.A.

    1981-01-01

    The primary sources of information on the skeletal effects of internal emitters in humans are the US radium cases with occupational and medical exposures to /sup 226/ /sup 228/Ra and the German patients injected with /sup 224/Ra primarily for treatment of ankylosing spondylitis and tuberculosis. During the past decade, dose-response data from both study populations have been used by committees, e.g., the BEIR committees, to estimate risks at low dose levels. NCRP Committee 57 and its task groups are now engaged in making risk estimates for internal emitters. This paper presents brief discussions of the radium data, the results of some new analyses and suggestions for expressing risk estimates in a form appropriate to radiation protection.

  3. The communication of uncertainty regarding individualized cancer risk estimates: effects and influential factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Paul K. J.; Klein, William M. P.; Lehman, Tom; Killam, Bill; Massett, Holly; Freedman, Andrew N.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To examine the effects of communicating uncertainty regarding individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates, and to identify factors that influence these effects. Methods Two web-based experiments were conducted, in which adults aged 40 years and older were provided with hypothetical individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates differing in the extent and representation of expressed uncertainty. The uncertainty consisted of imprecision (otherwise known as “ambiguity”) of the risk estimates, and was communicated using different representations of confidence intervals. Experiment 1 (n=240) tested the effects of ambiguity (confidence interval vs. point estimate) and representational format (textual vs. visual) on cancer risk perceptions and worry. Potential effect modifiers including personality type (optimism), numeracy, and the information’s perceived credibility were examined, along with the influence of communicating uncertainty on responses to comparative risk information. Experiment 2 (n=135) tested enhanced representations of ambiguity that incorporated supplemental textual and visual depictions. Results Communicating uncertainty led to heightened cancer-related worry in participants, exemplifying the phenomenon of “ambiguity aversion.” This effect was moderated by representational format and dispositional optimism; textual (vs. visual) format and low (vs. high) optimism were associated with greater ambiguity aversion. However, when enhanced representations were used to communicate uncertainty, textual and visual formats showed similar effects. Both the communication of uncertainty and use of the visual format diminished the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. Conclusions The communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates has complex effects, which include heightening cancer-related worry—consistent with ambiguity aversion—and diminishing the influence of comparative risk information on risk

  4. Communication of uncertainty regarding individualized cancer risk estimates: effects and influential factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Paul K J; Klein, William M P; Lehman, Tom; Killam, Bill; Massett, Holly; Freedman, Andrew N

    2011-01-01

    To examine the effects of communicating uncertainty regarding individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates and to identify factors that influence these effects. Two Web-based experiments were conducted, in which adults aged 40 years and older were provided with hypothetical individualized colorectal cancer risk estimates differing in the extent and representation of expressed uncertainty. The uncertainty consisted of imprecision (otherwise known as "ambiguity") of the risk estimates and was communicated using different representations of confidence intervals. Experiment 1 (n = 240) tested the effects of ambiguity (confidence interval v. point estimate) and representational format (textual v. visual) on cancer risk perceptions and worry. Potential effect modifiers, including personality type (optimism), numeracy, and the information's perceived credibility, were examined, along with the influence of communicating uncertainty on responses to comparative risk information. Experiment 2 (n = 135) tested enhanced representations of ambiguity that incorporated supplemental textual and visual depictions. Communicating uncertainty led to heightened cancer-related worry in participants, exemplifying the phenomenon of "ambiguity aversion." This effect was moderated by representational format and dispositional optimism; textual (v. visual) format and low (v. high) optimism were associated with greater ambiguity aversion. However, when enhanced representations were used to communicate uncertainty, textual and visual formats showed similar effects. Both the communication of uncertainty and use of the visual format diminished the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. The communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates has complex effects, which include heightening cancer-related worry-consistent with ambiguity aversion-and diminishing the influence of comparative risk information on risk perceptions. These responses are influenced by

  5. [Effects of gastric bypass on estimated cardiovascular risk in morbidly obese patients with metabolic syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcelles, Ricard; Vidal, Josep; Delgado, Salvadora; Ibarzabal, Ainitze; Bravo, Raquel; Momblan, Dulce; Espert, Juanjo; Morales, Xavi; Almenara, Raúl; Lacy, Antonio M

    2014-01-01

    The major goal of surgical treatment in morbid obesity is to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with excess weight. In this sense, the main factors of death are cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of gastric bypass on cardiovascular risk estimation in patients after bariatric surgery. We retrospectively evaluated pre and postoperative cardiovascular risk estimation of 402 morbidly obese patients who underwent laparoscopic gastric bypass. The major variable studied is the cardiovascular risk estimation that is calculated preoperatively and after 12 months. Cardiovascular risk estimation analysis has been performed with the REGICOR Equation. REGICOR formulation allows calculating a 10 year risk of cardiovascular events adapted to the Spanish population and is expressed in percentages. We reported an overall 4.1±3.0 mean basal REGICOR score. One year after the operation, cardiovascular risk estimation significantly decreased to 2,2±1,6 (Pcardiovascular risk factors included in the REGICOR equation. Copyright © 2013 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  6. Effect of arrangement of stick figures on estimates of proportion in risk graphics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancker, Jessica S; Weber, Elke U; Kukafka, Rita

    2011-01-01

    Health risks are sometimes illustrated with stick figures, with a certain proportion colored to indicate they are affected by the disease. Perception of these graphics may be affected by whether the affected stick figures are scattered randomly throughout the group or arranged in a block. . To assess the effects of stick-figure arrangement on first impressions of estimates of proportion, under a 10-s deadline. . Questionnaire. Participants and Setting. Respondents recruited online (n = 100) or in waiting rooms at an urban hospital (n = 65). Intervention. Participants were asked to estimate the proportion represented in 6 unlabeled graphics, half randomly arranged and half sequentially arranged. Measurements. Estimated proportions. . Although average estimates were fairly good, the variability of estimates was high. Overestimates of random graphics were larger than overestimates of sequential ones, except when the proportion was near 50%; variability was also higher with random graphics. Although the average inaccuracy was modest, it was large enough that more than one quarter of respondents confused 2 graphics depicting proportions that differed by 11 percentage points. Low numeracy and educational level were associated with inaccuracy. Limitations. Participants estimated proportions but did not report perceived risk. . Randomly arranged arrays of stick figures should be used with care because viewers' ability to estimate the proportion in these graphics is so poor that moderate differences between risks may not be visible. In addition, random arrangements may create an initial impression that proportions, especially large ones, are larger than they are.

  7. A Challenge to Scientific Risk Estimation on Health Effects of Low Dose Radiation - An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Ono

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Although experimental as well as epidemiological studies have revealed the health effects of ionizing radiation, most of our knowledge is for high doses of radiation, while little is known for low doses. For practical purposes, we estimate the risk of low dose radiation by extrapolating the effects at high doses to low doses in a linear relationship. However, several lines of evidence have accumulated in recent years that suggest this linear extrapolation is not necessarily correct and needs further scientific evaluation. Today, many scientists in the field are striving to understand the biological responses to low dose radiation. This work will provide new and perhaps convincing data which are necessary for risk estimation of low dose radiation. Here, I overview the background of the issue.

  8. Biological and physical methods for risk estimation in interventional radiology: a detrimental effect approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, M; Montoro, A; Almonacid, M; Barquinero, S Ferrer J F; Tortosa, R; Miró, R; Verdú, G; Rodríguez, P; Barrios, L L; Villaescusa, J I

    2011-01-01

    Interventional radiologists and staff members are frequently exposed to the effects of direct and scattered radiation, which undergo in deterministic effects (radiodermitis, aged skin, cataracts, telangiectasia in nasal region, vasocellular epitelioms, hands depilation) and/or stochastic ones (cancer incidence). A methodology has been proposed for estimating the radiation risk or detriment from a group of six exposed interventional radiologists of the Hospital Universitario La Fe (Valencia, Spain), which had developed general exposition symptoms attributable to deterministic effects of ionizing radiation. Equivalent doses have been periodically registered using termoluminiscence dosimeters (TLD's) and wrist dosimeters, H(p)(10) and H(p)(0.07), respectively, and estimated through the observation of translocations in lymphocytes of peripheral blood (biological methods), by extrapolating the yield of translocations to their respective dose-effect curves. The software RADRISK has been applied for estimating radiation risks in these occupational radiation exposures. The minimum and maximum average excess ratio for skin cancer has been, using wrist physical doses, of [1.03 × 10(-3), 5.06 × 10(-2)], concluding that there is not an increased risk of skin cancer incidence. The minimum and maximum average excess ratio for leukemia has been, using TLD physical doses, of [7.84 × 10(-2), 3.36 × 10(-1)], and using biological doses, of [1.40 × 10(-1), 1.51], which is considerably higher than incidence rates, showing an excess radio-induced risk of leukemia in the group under study. Finally, the maximum radiological detriment in the group, evaluated as the total number of radio-induced cancers using physical dosimetry, has been of 2.18 per 1000 person-year (skin and leukemia), and using biological dosimetry of 9.20 per 1000 PY (leukemia). As a conclusion, this study has provided an assessment of the non-deterministic effects (rate of radio-induced cancer incidence

  9. The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gething Peter W

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

  10. Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aw-Zoretic, J., E-mail: Jaw@luriechildrens.org [Department of Medical Imaging, Ann and Robert H. Lurie Children' s Hospital of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States); Seth, D.; Katzman, G.; Sammet, S. [Department of Radiology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL (United States)

    2014-10-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). Method and materials: A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Results: Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10–18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Conclusion: Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed.

  11. Health effects of cadmium exposure--a review of the literature and a risk estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Järup, L; Berglund, M; Elinder, C G; Nordberg, G; Vahter, M

    1998-01-01

    workers. Tubular damage may develop at much lower levels than previously estimated, as shown in this report. Data from several recent reports from different countries indicate that an average urinary cadmium excretion of 2.5 micrograms/g creatinine is related to an excess prevalence of renal tubular damage of 4%. An average urinary excretion of 2.5 micrograms/g creatinine corresponds to an average concentration of cadmium in renal cortex of 50 micrograms/g, which would be the result of long-term (decades) intake of 50 micrograms per day. When the critical concentrations for adverse effects due to cadmium accumulation are being evaluated, it is crucial to consider both the individual variation in kidney cadmium concentrations and the variations in sensitivity within the general population. Even if the population average kidney concentration is relatively low for the general population, a certain proportion will have values exceeding the concentration where renal tubular damage can occur. It can be estimated that, at the present average daily intake of cadmium in Sweden, about 1% of women with low body iron stores and smokers may experience adverse renal effects related to cadmium. If the average daily intake of cadmium would increase to 30 micrograms/day, about 1% of the entire population would have cadmium-induced tubular damage. In risk groups, for example, women with low iron stores, the percentage would be higher, up to 5%. Both human and animal studies indicate that skeletal damage (osteoporosis) may be a critical effect of cadmium exposure. We conclude, however, that the present evidence is not sufficient to permit such a conclusion for humans. We would like to stress, however, that osteoporosis is a very important public health problem worldwide, but especially in the Scandinav

  12. Effects of Acknowledging Uncertainty about Earthquake Risk Estimates on San Francisco Bay Area Residents' Beliefs, Attitudes, and Intentions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayachi, Kazuya; B Johnson, Branden; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2017-08-29

    We test here the risk communication proposition that explicit expert acknowledgment of uncertainty in risk estimates can enhance trust and other reactions. We manipulated such a scientific uncertainty message, accompanied by probabilities (20%, 70%, implicit ["will occur"] 100%) and time periods (10 or 30 years) in major (≥magnitude 8) earthquake risk estimates to test potential effects on residents potentially affected by seismic activity on the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (n = 750). The uncertainty acknowledgment increased belief that these specific experts were more honest and open, and led to statistically (but not substantively) significant increases in trust in seismic experts generally only for the 20% probability (vs. certainty) and shorter versus longer time period. The acknowledgment did not change judged risk, preparedness intentions, or mitigation policy support. Probability effects independent of the explicit admission of expert uncertainty were also insignificant except for judged risk, which rose or fell slightly depending upon the measure of judged risk used. Overall, both qualitative expressions of uncertainty and quantitative probabilities had limited effects on public reaction. These results imply that both theoretical arguments for positive effects, and practitioners' potential concerns for negative effects, of uncertainty expression may have been overblown. There may be good reasons to still acknowledge experts' uncertainties, but those merit separate justification and their own empirical tests. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Demonstration of the effect of generic anatomical divisions versus clinical protocols on computed tomography dose estimates and risk burden.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachael E Moorin

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Choosing to undertake a CT scan relies on balancing risk versus benefit, however risks associated with CT scanning have generally been limited to broad anatomical locations, which do not provided adequate information to evaluate risk against benefit. Our study aimed to determine differences in radiation dose and risk estimates associated with modern CT scanning examinations when computed for clinical protocols compared with those using anatomical area. METHODS: Technical data were extracted from a tertiary hospital Picture Archiving Communication System for random samples of 20-40 CT examinations per adult clinical CT protocol. Organ and whole body radiation dose were calculated using ImPACT Monte Carlo simulation software and cancer incidence and mortality estimated using BEIR VII age and gender specific lifetime attributable risk weights. RESULTS: Thirty four unique CT protocols were identified by our study. When grouped according to anatomic area the radiation dose varied substantially, particularly for abdominal protocols. The total estimated number of incident cancers and cancer related deaths using the mean dose of anatomical area were 86 and 69 respectively. Using more specific protocol doses the estimates rose to 214 and 138 incident cancers and cancer related deaths, at least doubling the burden estimated. CONCLUSIONS: Modern CT scanning produces a greater diversity of effective doses than much of the literature describes; where a lack of focus on actual scanning protocols has produced estimates that do not reflect the range and complexity of modern CT practice. To allow clinicians, patients and policy makers to make informed risk versus benefit decisions the individual and population level risks associated with modern CT practices are essential.

  14. Effect of serum lipid level change on 10-year coronary heart risk distribution estimated by means of seven different coronary risk scores during one-year treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojić, Nevena Eremić; Derić, Mirjana; Dejanović, Jadranka

    2014-01-01

    This study was done in order to evaluate the effect of serum levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol on 10-year coronary heart disease risk distribution change. This study included 110 subjects of both genders (71 female and 39 male), aged 29 to 73, treated at the Outpatient Department of Atherosclerosis Prevention, Centre for Laboratory Medicine, Clinical Centre Vojvodina. The 10-year coronary heart disease risk was estimated on first examination and after one-year treatment by means of Framingham, PROCAM and SCORE coronary risk scores and their modifications (Framingham Adult Treatment Panel III, Framingham Weibul, PROCAM NS and PROCAM Cox Hazards). Age, gender, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking, positive family history and left ventricular hypertrophy are risk factors involved in the estimation of coronary heart disease besides lipid parameters. There were no significant differences in nutritional status, smoking habits, systolic and diastolic pressure, and no development of diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular incidents during one-year follow. However, a significant reduction in cholesterol level (p cholesterol (p cholesterol (p coronary heart disease risk (Framingham- p risk category (Framingham- p risk at the beginning of the study. Our results show that the correction of lipid level after one-year treatment leads to a significant redistribution of 10-year coronary heart disease risk estimated by means of seven different coronary risk scores. This should stimulate patients and doctors to persist in prevention measures.

  15. Ecological risk assessment of multimedia hazardous air pollutants: estimating exposure and effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efroymson, R A; Murphy, D L

    2001-07-02

    Hazardous air pollutants, some of which have the potential for multimedia distribution, raise several hurdles for ecological risk assessment including: (1) the development of an adequate transport, fate and exposure model; and (2) the selection of exposure-response models that can accommodate multiple exposure routes for ecological receptors. To address the first issue, the EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards has developed TRIM.FaTE, a mass-balance, fate, transport, and ecological exposure model that is a component of the Total Risk Integrated Methodology (TRIM) for air pollutants. In addition to abiotic transfers and transformations, TRIM.FaTE estimates the uptake of a chemical by terrestrial and aquatic organisms with time. Measures of exposure that TRIM.FaTE can provide include: (1) body burdens or tissue concentrations; (2) doses averaged over any time period; or (3) concentrations of chemicals in abiotic media. The model provides the user with the flexibility to choose the exposure-response thresholds or dose-response relationships that are best suited to data availability, routes of exposure, and the mechanism of toxicity of the chemical to an ecological receptor. One of the challenges of incorporating TRIM.FaTE into a risk assessment methodology lies in defining a streamlined model simulation scenario for initial screening-level risk assessments. These assessments may encompass multiple facilities that emit a variety of pollutants near diverse ecosystems. The information on ecological risk assessment methodology that is described is applicable to the EPA Residual Risk Program with emphasis on multimedia pollutants and the role of TRIM.FaTE.

  16. Family estimates of risk for neurocognitive late effects following pediatric cancer: From diagnosis through the first three years of survivorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Emily L; Lehmann, Vicky; Rausch, Joseph R; Keim, Madelaine C; Winning, Adrien M; Olshefski, Randal S; Vannatta, Kathryn A; Compas, Bruce E; Gerhardt, Cynthia A

    2017-09-01

    Families often express a need for additional information about neurocognitive late effects (NCLE) after a pediatric cancer diagnosis. Therefore, we examined: (i) differences in parent, child, and oncologist estimates of risk for NCLE; (ii) whether the estimates of parents and/or children change over time; and (iii) whether estimates are different for children treated with central nervous system (CNS) directed therapies. Mothers, fathers, and children (initial age: 5-17, self-report: >10) from 258 families reported their perceived likelihood of the child developing "thinking/learning problems" on a visual analog scale (0-100%) at 2 months (T1), 1 year (T2), and 3 years (T3) following cancer diagnosis/relapse. Oncologists estimated the likelihood of NCLE at T1. Children were separated into groups based on CNS-directed treatment (n = 137; neurosurgery, intrathecal chemotherapy, and/or craniospinal radiation) or no CNS treatment. Mother, father, and child estimates of risk for NCLE were similar to oncologists and to one another around diagnosis (T1). Although there were no significant mean differences, a considerable subset of family members either underestimated their child's risk for NCLE (>40%) or overestimated the risk for NCLE (20%) in comparison to oncologists. At T2 and T3, the estimates of mothers were significantly higher than children. Linear growth curves indicated that mothers' estimates for children with CNS-directed treatment significantly increased throughout the first 3 years of survivorship. Considering that accurate understanding of NCLE is essential to seeking appropriate assessment and intervention, healthcare providers should focus on implementing family-based education early in treatment and throughout survivorship care. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Estimation of risk management effects on revenue and purchased feed costs on US dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadrich, Joleen C; Johnson, Kamina K

    2015-09-01

    Variations in milk and feed prices directly affect dairy farm risk management decisions. This research used data from the 2010 US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Resource Management Surveys phase III dairy survey to examine how risk management tools affected revenues and expenses across US dairy farms. The survey was sent to 26 states and collected information on costs and returns to individual dairy farms. This research used the information from milk sales, crops sales, feed expenses, and farm and operator characteristics, as well as the use of risk management tools. Matching methodology was used to evaluate the effect of 5 independent risk management tools on revenues and expenses: selling milk to a cooperative, using a commodity contract to sell grain, feeding homegrown forage at a basic and intensive level, and use of a nutritionist. Results showed that dairy farms located in the Midwest and East benefit from selling milk to a cooperative and using commodity contracts to sell grain. Across the United States, using a nutritionist increased total feed costs, whereas a feeding program that included more than 65% homegrown forages decreased total feed costs. Results point to benefits from educational programming on risk management tools that are region specific rather than a broad generalization to all US dairy farmers. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. The Additive Risk Model for Estimation of Effect of Haplotype Match in BMT Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, T.; Zhang, M. J.

    2011-01-01

    In this article we consider a problem from bone marrow transplant (BMT) studies where there is interest on assessing the effect of haplotype match for donor and patient on the overall survival. The BMT study we consider is based on donors and patients that are genotype matched, and this therefore......) algorithm cannot be applied for this model because the likelihood is hard to evaluate without additional assumptions. We suggest an approach based on multivariate estimating equations that are solved using a recursive structure. This approach leads to an estimator where the large sample properties can...... be developed using product-integration theory. Small sample properties are investigated using simulations in a setting that mimics the motivating haplomatch problem....

  19. Estimated effect of ventilation and filtration on chronic health risks in U.S. offices, schools, and retail stores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, W R; Parthasarathy, S; Fisk, W J; McKone, T E

    2016-04-01

    We assessed the chronic health risks from inhalation exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM2.5) in U.S. offices, schools, grocery, and other retail stores and evaluated how chronic health risks were affected by changes in ventilation rates and air filtration efficiency. Representative concentrations of VOCs and PM2.5 were obtained from available data. Using a mass balance model, changes in exposure to VOCs and PM2.5 were predicted if ventilation rate were to increase or decrease by a factor of two, and if higher efficiency air filters were used. Indoor concentrations were compared to health guidelines to estimate percentage exceedances. The estimated chronic health risks associated with VOC and PM2.5 exposures in these buildings were low relative to the risks from exposures in homes. Chronic health risks were driven primarily by exposures to PM2.5 that were evaluated using disease incidence of mortality, chronic bronchitis, and non-fatal stroke. The leading cancer risk factor was exposure to formaldehyde. Using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to account for both cancer and non-cancer effects, results suggest that increasing ventilation alone is ineffective at reducing chronic health burdens. Other strategies, such as pollutant source control and the use of particle filtration, should also be considered. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Effect of exposure misclassification on the mean squared error of population attributable risk and prevented fraction estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, S D; Hsieh, C C; Liu, Qin

    2007-11-20

    Previous work has considered the effect of exposure misclassification on the bias of population attributable risk (AR) estimates, but little is known about the corresponding effects on their precision or mean squared error (MSE). This paper considers AR estimation in typical scenarios for case-control and cohort studies. The analogous index used when exposure reduces the risk--the prevented fraction (PF)--is also investigated. It is shown, through both theoretical and simulation results, that even with quite modest levels of exposure misclassification, the MSE can increase substantially, relative to the variance of AR estimated without measurement error. When exposure assessment is perfectly sensitive, there is no bias in AR but lack of measurement specificity can still cause a substantial loss of precision. In a few cases, the AR or PF with misclassified exposure can actually have smaller MSE; these exceptional cases arise when sensitivity is poor and the bias in AR or PF is relatively large. We conclude that while bias can be reduced by defining exposure on a highly sensitive basis, one must also consider the deleterious effect on precision by doing so. Loss of precision in the AR and PF estimates can be safely ignored only when the exposure measure is very accurate.

  1. Risk assessment for complex chemical exposure in aquatic systems: the problem of estimating interactive effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, J S

    1998-01-01

    The traditional, but little used, way of assessing effects of the interaction between known chemicals is to use factorial experimental designs. Such designs allow one to test for less than additive (antagonistic) and greater than additive (synergistic) effects. Whilst synergism can be demonstrated in such experiments the concentrations at which synergistic effects occur are extremely high and are unlikely to occur in nature. Recently developed techniques allow one to measure directly the effects of combined stressors in the field. These biological effect techniques range from tests on individual organisms to tests on communities. At the biochemical level the tests can indicate that the organism has been exposed to certain groups of chemicals (for example cytochrome P-450 enzymes responding to PAHs or metallothioneins responding to heavy metals). At the community level of organisation there are highly sensitive statistical techniques that indicate clearly the combined effect of stressors. The effects of oil exploration and production on benthic communities in the North Sea can be linked to concentrations of chemicals. However, such relationships are correlative and do not necessarily indicate cause and effect. Experiments are needed to test the hypotheses generated concerning the interactive effects of chemicals on the benthic species. The statistical analyses do, however, show which species have been affected and their relative sensitivity to chemical and physical disturbances. Such species are preferable to the traditional "laboratory weeds" usually utilised. A strategy for risk assessment is needed that combines an experimental protocol for making predictions, from laboratory experiments, of likely effects to be found in the field. This should be combined with field monitoring that allows one to detect changes that were not predicted. At present most monitoring designs cannot adequately detect trends. This is due to concentration on Type-I statistical errors

  2. The effect of zonal factors in estimating crash risks by transportation modes: Motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Huang, Helai; Zeng, Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This paper aimed to (i) differentiate the effects of contributory factors on crash risks related to different transportation modes, i.e., motor vehicle, bicycle and pedestrian; (ii) explore the potential contribution of zone-level factors which are traditionally excluded or omitted, so as to track the source of heterogeneous effects of certain risk factors in crash-frequency models by different modes. Two analytical methods, i.e. negative binomial models (NB) and random parameters negative binomial models (RPNB), were employed to relate crash frequencies of different transportation modes to a variety of risk factors at intersections. Five years of crash data, traffic volume, geometric design as well as macroscopic variables at traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level for 279 intersections were used for analysis as a case study. Among the findings are: (1) the sets of significant variables in crash-frequency analysis differed for different transportation modes; (2) omission of macroscopic variables would result in biased parameters estimation and incorrect inferences; (3) the zonal factors (macroscopic factors) considered played a more important role in elevating the model performance for non-motorized than motor-vehicle crashes; (4) a relatively smaller buffer width to extract macroscopic factors surrounding the intersection yielded better estimations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. On Stein's unbiased risk estimate for reduced rank estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Richard

    2018-01-01

    Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) is considered for matrix valued observables with low rank means. It is shown that SURE is applicable to a class of spectral function estimators including the reduced rank estimator.......Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) is considered for matrix valued observables with low rank means. It is shown that SURE is applicable to a class of spectral function estimators including the reduced rank estimator....

  4. Effect of change in systolic blood pressure between clinic visits on estimated 10-year cardiovascular disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Siqin; Wang, Y Claire; Shimbo, Daichi; Newman, Jonathan D; Levitan, Emily B; Muntner, Paul

    2014-03-01

    Systolic blood pressure (SBP) often varies between clinic visits within individuals, which can affect estimation of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We analyzed data from participants with two clinic visits separated by a median of 17 days in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 808). Ten-year CVD risk was calculated with SBP obtained at each visit using the Pooled Cohort Equations. The mean age of participants was 46.1 years, and 47.3% were male. The median SBP difference between the two visits was -1 mm Hg (1st to 99th percentiles: -23 to 32 mm Hg). The median estimated 10-year CVD risk was 2.5% and 2.4% at the first and second visit, respectively (1st to 99th percentiles -5.2% to +7.1%). Meaningful risk reclassification (ie, across the guideline recommended 7.5% threshold for statin initiation) occurred in 12 (11.3%) of 106 participants whose estimated CVD risk was between 5% and 10%, but only in two (0.3%) of 702 participants who had a 10-year estimated CVD risk of 10%. SBP variability can affect CVD risk estimation, and can influence statin eligibility for individuals with an estimated 10-year CVD risk between 5% and 10%. Copyright © 2014 American Society of Hypertension. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Identification of effective screening strategies for cardiovascular disease prevention in a developing country: using cardiovascular risk-estimation and risk-reduction tools for policy recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvarajah, Sharmini; Haniff, Jamaiyah; Kaur, Gurpreet; Guat Hiong, Tee; Bujang, Adam; Chee Cheong, Kee; Bots, Michiel L

    2013-02-25

    Recent increases in cardiovascular risk-factor prevalences have led to new national policy recommendations of universal screening for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Malaysia. This study assessed whether the current national policy recommendation of universal screening was optimal, by comparing the effectiveness and impact of various cardiovascular screening strategies. Data from a national population based survey of 24 270 participants aged 30 to 74 was used. Five screening strategies were modelled for the overall population and by gender; universal and targeted screening (four age cut-off points). Screening strategies were assessed based on the ability to detect high cardiovascular risk populations (effectiveness), incremental effectiveness, impact on cardiovascular event prevention and cost of screening. 26.7% (95% confidence limits 25.7, 27.7) were at high cardiovascular risk, men 34.7% (33.6, 35.8) and women 18.9% (17.8, 20). Universal screening identified all those at high-risk and resulted in one high-risk individual detected for every 3.7 people screened, with an estimated cost of USD60. However, universal screening resulted in screening an additional 7169 persons, with an incremental cost of USD115,033 for detection of one additional high-risk individual in comparison to targeted screening of those aged ≥35 years. The cost, incremental cost and impact of detection of high-risk individuals were more for women than men for all screening strategies. The impact of screening women aged ≥45 years was similar to universal screening in men. Targeted gender- and age-specific screening strategies would ensure more optimal utilisation of scarce resources compared to the current policy recommendations of universal screening.

  6. Understanding the effects of past flood events and perceived and estimated flood risks on individuals' voluntary flood insurance purchase behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard; Jackson, Nida; Goidel, Kirby

    2017-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the economic damage from flooding in the coastal areas has greatly increased due to rapid coastal development coupled with possible climate change impacts. One effective way to mitigate excessive economic losses from flooding is to purchase flood insurance. Only a minority of coastal residents however have taken this preventive measure. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data, this study examines the effects of external influences and perceptions of flood-related risks on individuals' voluntary behaviors to purchase flood insurance. It is found that the estimated flood hazard conveyed through the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) flood maps, the intensities and consequences of past storms and flooding events, and perceived flood-related risks significantly affect individual's voluntary purchase of flood insurance. This behavior is also influenced by home ownership, trust in local government, education, and income. These findings have several important policy implications. First, FEMA's flood maps have been effective in conveying local flood risks to coastal residents, and correspondingly influencing their decisions to voluntarily seek flood insurance in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Flood maps therefore should be updated frequently to reflect timely and accurate information about flood hazards. Second, policy makers should design strategies to increase homeowners' trust in the local government, to better communicate flood risks with residents, to address the affordability issue for the low-income, and better inform less educated homeowners through various educational programs. Future studies should examine the voluntary flood insurance behavior across countries that are vulnerable to flooding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Risk assessment for complex chemical exposure in aquatic systems: the problem of estimating interactive effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gray, J.S. [Oslo Univ. (Norway). Biological Inst.

    1998-12-31

    The traditional, but little used, way of assessing effects of the interaction between known chemicals is to use factorial experimental designs. Such designs allow one to test for less than additive (antagonistic) and greater than additive (synergistic) effects. Whilst synergism can be demonstrated in such experiments the concentrations at which synergistic effects occur are extremely high and are unlikely to occur in nature. Recently developed techniques allow one to measure directly the effects of combined stressors in the field. These biological effect techniques range from tests on individual organisms to tests on communities. At the biochemical level the tests can indicate that the organism has been exposed to certain groups of chemicals (for example cytochrome P-450 enzymes responding to PAHs or metallothioneins responding to heavy metals). At the community level of organisation there are highly sensitive statistical techniques that indicate clearly the combined effect of stressors. The effects of oil exploration and production on benthic communities in the North Sea can be linked to concentrations of chemicals. However, such relationships are correlative and do not necessarily indicate cause and effect. Experiments are needed to test the hypotheses generated concerning the interactive effects of chemicals on the benthic species. The statistical analyses do, however, show which species have been affected and their relative sensitivity to chemical and physical disturbances. Such species are preferable to the traditional `laboratory weeds` usually utilised. (orig.)

  8. Scientific Risk Estimation on Health Effects of Low Dose and Low Dose-Rate Radiation - An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetsuya Ono

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of the scientific risks of high dose radiation has been successfully quantified by many studies using several different approaches. However, the risk for low and low dose-rate radiation is obscure because of a lack of evidence. This risk is currently estimated by extrapolating the radiation response at high doses into low dose ranges for practical purposes. Recent challenges to examine directly the biological responses to low dose radiation using newly developed technologies are unveiling interesting alterations at the molecular level. The interpretation of these data, however, needs careful consideration because they may not be related to any change in biological functions.

  9. Risk-based estimate of effect of foodborne diseases on public health, Greece

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gkogka, E.; Reij, M.W.; Havelaar, A.H.; Zwietering, M.H.; Gorris, L.G.M.

    2011-01-01

    The public health effects of illness caused by foodborne pathogens in Greece during 1996–2006 was quantified by using publicly available surveillance data, hospital statistics, and literature. Results were expressed as the incidence of different disease outcomes and as disability-adjusted life years

  10. Biased Exposure-Health Effect Estimates from Selection in Cohort Studies: Are Environmental Studies at Particular Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisskopf, Marc G; Sparrow, David; Hu, Howard; Power, Melinda C

    2015-11-01

    The process of creating a cohort or cohort substudy may induce misleading exposure-health effect associations through collider stratification bias (i.e., selection bias) or bias due to conditioning on an intermediate. Studies of environmental risk factors may be at particular risk. We aimed to demonstrate how such biases of the exposure-health effect association arise and how one may mitigate them. We used directed acyclic graphs and the example of bone lead and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischemic heart disease) among 835 white men in the Normative Aging Study (NAS) to illustrate potential bias related to recruitment into the NAS and the bone lead substudy. We then applied methods (adjustment, restriction, and inverse probability of attrition weighting) to mitigate these biases in analyses using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Analyses adjusted for age at bone lead measurement, smoking, and education among all men found HRs (95% CI) for the highest versus lowest tertile of patella lead of 1.34 (0.90, 2.00), 1.46 (0.86, 2.48), and 2.01 (0.86, 4.68) for all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischemic heart disease mortality, respectively. After applying methods to mitigate the biases, the HR (95% CI) among the 637 men analyzed were 1.86 (1.12, 3.09), 2.47 (1.23, 4.96), and 5.20 (1.61, 16.8), respectively. Careful attention to the underlying structure of the observed data is critical to identifying potential biases and methods to mitigate them. Understanding factors that influence initial study participation and study loss to follow-up is critical. Recruitment of population-based samples and enrolling participants at a younger age, before the potential onset of exposure-related health effects, can help reduce these potential pitfalls. Weisskopf MG, Sparrow D, Hu H, Power MC. 2015. Biased exposure-health effect estimates from selection in cohort studies: are environmental studies at

  11. Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faggion, Clovis Mariano; Wu, Yun-Chun; Scheidgen, Moritz; Tu, Yu-Kang

    2015-01-01

    Risk of bias (ROB) may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists. The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in periodontology and implant dentistry. A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs), including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment). To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses. Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field) generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs. In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly) unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association.

  12. Effect of Risk of Bias on the Effect Size of Meta-Analytic Estimates in Randomized Controlled Trials in Periodontology and Implant Dentistry.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clovis Mariano Faggion

    Full Text Available Risk of bias (ROB may threaten the internal validity of a clinical trial by distorting the magnitude of treatment effect estimates, although some conflicting information on this assumption exists.The objective of this study was evaluate the effect of ROB on the magnitude of treatment effect estimates in randomized controlled trials (RCTs in periodontology and implant dentistry.A search for Cochrane systematic reviews (SRs, including meta-analyses of RCTs published in periodontology and implant dentistry fields, was performed in the Cochrane Library in September 2014. Random-effect meta-analyses were performed by grouping RCTs with different levels of ROBs in three domains (sequence generation, allocation concealment, and blinding of outcome assessment. To increase power and precision, only SRs with meta-analyses including at least 10 RCTs were included. Meta-regression was performed to investigate the association between ROB characteristics and the magnitudes of intervention effects in the meta-analyses.Of the 24 initially screened SRs, 21 SRs were excluded because they did not include at least 10 RCTs in the meta-analyses. Three SRs (two from periodontology field generated information for conducting 27 meta-analyses. Meta-regression did not reveal significant differences in the relationship of the ROB level with the size of treatment effect estimates, although a trend for inflated estimates was observed in domains with unclear ROBs.In this sample of RCTs, high and (mainly unclear risks of selection and detection biases did not seem to influence the size of treatment effect estimates, although several confounders might have influenced the strength of the association.

  13. Effect of induction chemotherapy on estimated risk of radiation pneumonitis in bulky non–small cell lung cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amin, Neha P., E-mail: npamin@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Wayne State University and Karmanos Cancer Center, Detroit, MI (United States); Miften, Moyed; Thornton, Dale; Ryan, Nicole; Kavanagh, Brian; Gaspar, Laurie E [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Colorado, Aurora, CO (United States)

    2013-10-01

    Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were created for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.

  14. Russia-specific relative risks and their effects on the estimated alcohol-attributable burden of disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shield, Kevin D; Rehm, Jürgen

    2015-05-10

    Alcohol consumption is a major risk factor for the burden of disease globally. This burden is estimated using Relative Risk (RR) functions for alcohol from meta-analyses that use data from all countries; however, for Russia and surrounding countries, country-specific risk data may need to be used. The objective of this paper is to compare the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using Russia-specific alcohol RRs with the estimated burden of alcohol consumption calculated using alcohol RRs from meta-analyses. Data for 2012 on drinking indicators were calculated based on the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health. Data for 2012 on mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost by cause were obtained by country from the World Health Organization. Alcohol Population-Attributable Fractions (PAFs) were calculated based on a risk modelling methodology from Russia. These PAFs were compared to PAFs calculated using methods applied for all other countries. The 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs) for the alcohol PAFs were calculated using a Monte Carlo-like method. Using Russia-specific alcohol RR functions, in Russia in 2012 alcohol caused an estimated 231,900 deaths (95% UI: 185,600 to 278,200) (70,800 deaths among women and 161,100 deaths among men) and 13,295,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 11,242,000 to 15,348,000) (3,670,000 DALYs lost among women and 9,625,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age. This compares to an estimated 165,600 deaths (95% UI: 97,200 to 228,100) (29,700 deaths among women and 135,900 deaths among men) and 10,623,000 DALYs lost (95% UI: 7,265,000 to 13,754,000) (1,783,000 DALYs lost among women and 8,840,000 DALYs lost among men) among people 0 to 64 years of age caused by alcohol when non-Russia-specific alcohol RRs were used. Results indicate that if the Russia-specific RRs are used when estimating the health burden attributable to alcohol consumption in

  15. Sample size estimates for determining treatment effects in high-risk patients with early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Thomas F; Schramke, Carol J; Cutter, Gary

    2003-06-01

    Risk factors for short-term progression in early relapsing remitting MS have been identified recently. Previously we determined potential risk factors for rapid progression of early relapsing remitting MS and identified three groups of high-risk patients. These non-mutually exclusive groups of patients were drawn from a consecutively studied sample of 98 patients with newly diagnosed MS. High-risk patients had a history of either poor recovery from initial attacks, more than two attacks in the first two years of disease, or a combination of at least four other risk factors. To determine differences in sample sizes required to show a meaningful treatment effect when using a high-risk sample versus a random sample of patients. Power analyses were used to calculate the different sample sizes needed for hypothetical treatment trials. We found that substantially smaller numbers of patients should be needed to show a significant treatment effect by employing these high-risk groups of patients as compared to a random population of MS patients (e.g., 58% reduction in sample size in one model). The use of patients at higher risk of progression to perform drug treatment trials can be considered as a means to reduce the number of patients needed to show a significant treatment effect for patients with very early MS.

  16. Cardiovascular risk estimation in older persons

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cooney, Marie Therese; Selmer, Randi; Lindman, Anja

    2016-01-01

    AIMS: Estimation of cardiovascular disease risk, using SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) is recommended by European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention. Risk estimation is inaccurate in older people. We hypothesized that this may be due to the assumption, inherent in current...... risk estimation systems, that risk factors function similarly in all age groups. We aimed to derive and validate a risk estimation function, SCORE O.P., solely from data from individuals aged 65 years and older. METHODS AND RESULTS: 20,704 men and 20,121 women, aged 65 and over and without pre.......73 to 0.75). Calibration was also reasonable, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test: 17.16 (men), 22.70 (women). Compared with the original SCORE function extrapolated to the ≥65 years age group discrimination improved, p = 0.05 (men), p risk charts were constructed. On simulated...

  17. Incorporating a Genetic Risk Score Into Coronary Heart Disease Risk Estimates: Effect on Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Levels (the MI-GENES Clinical Trial).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullo, Iftikhar J; Jouni, Hayan; Austin, Erin E; Brown, Sherry-Ann; Kruisselbrink, Teresa M; Isseh, Iyad N; Haddad, Raad A; Marroush, Tariq S; Shameer, Khader; Olson, Janet E; Broeckel, Ulrich; Green, Robert C; Schaid, Daniel J; Montori, Victor M; Bailey, Kent R

    2016-03-22

    Whether knowledge of genetic risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) affects health-related outcomes is unknown. We investigated whether incorporating a genetic risk score (GRS) in CHD risk estimates lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels. Participants (n=203, 45-65 years of age, at intermediate risk for CHD, and not on statins) were randomly assigned to receive their 10-year probability of CHD based either on a conventional risk score (CRS) or CRS + GRS ((+)GRS). Participants in the (+)GRS group were stratified as having high or average/low GRS. Risk was disclosed by a genetic counselor followed by shared decision making regarding statin therapy with a physician. We compared the primary end point of LDL-C levels at 6 months and assessed whether any differences were attributable to changes in dietary fat intake, physical activity levels, or statin use. Participants (mean age, 59.4±5 years; 48% men; mean 10-year CHD risk, 8.5±4.1%) were allocated to receive either CRS (n=100) or (+)GRS (n=103). At the end of the study period, the (+)GRS group had a lower LDL-C than the CRS group (96.5±32.7 versus 105.9±33.3 mg/dL; P=0.04). Participants with high GRS had lower LDL-C levels (92.3±32.9 mg/dL) than CRS participants (P=0.02) but not participants with low GRS (100.9±32.2 mg/dL; P=0.18). Statins were initiated more often in the (+)GRS group than in the CRS group (39% versus 22%, Prisk estimates that incorporated genetic risk information led to lower LDL-C levels than disclosure of CHD risk based on conventional risk factors alone. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01936675. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. The impact of involved node, involved field and mantle field radiotherapy on estimated radiation doses and risk of late effects for pediatric patients with Hodgkin lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maraldo, M V; Jørgensen, M; Brodin, N P

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of radiotherapy (RT) is debated for pediatric patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) due to the late effects of treatment. Radiation doses to the thyroid, heart, lungs, and breasts are compared with the extensive mantle field (MF), Involved Field RT(IFRT), Modified IFRT (m...... to the heart, lungs, breasts, and thyroid compared to past,extended fields, even for patients with mediastinal disease. This translated into a significantly reduced estimated risk of cardiovascular disease, secondary cancers, and LYL. CONCLUSIONS: Involved Node Radiotherapy should be considered for pediatric......–II classical HL patients patient. The lifetime excess risks of cardiac morbidity, cardiac mortality, lung, breast, and thyroid cancer with each technique were estimated. The estimated excess risks attributable to RT were based on HL series with long-term follow...

  19. Specification and estimation of heterogeneous risk preference

    OpenAIRE

    Guan, Zhengfei; Wu, Feng

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we specify and estimate producers’ risk preference using farm data. We allow heterogeneous risk preference across individuals and propose a specification to model the heterogeneity. We base farmers’ decision making on a utility maximization framework and incorporate both market and production risk in farmers’ decision making. We do not assume any specific utility function or distribution of risk. The empirical application to farm level production data shows that risk preference ...

  20. Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-08-22

    This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses in these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.

  1. Risk Probability Estimating Based on Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Yong; Jensen, Christian D.; Gray, Elizabeth

    2003-01-01

    of prior experiences, recommendations from a trusted entity or the reputation of the other entity. In this paper we propose a dynamic mechanism for estimating the risk probability of a certain interaction in a given environment using hybrid neural networks. We argue that traditional risk assessment models...... from the insurance industry do not directly apply to ubiquitous computing environments. Instead, we propose a dynamic mechanism for risk assessment, which is based on pattern matching, classification and prediction procedures. This mechanism uses an estimator of risk probability, which is based...

  2. Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming [Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080 (China); Zhang, Yue-Jun [Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080 (China); Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100080 (China); Tsai, Hsien-Tang [College of Management, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 80424 (China)

    2008-11-15

    Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the Generalized Error Distribution (GED), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of returns in the WTI and Brent crude oil spot markets. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between the two oil markets. Results of an empirical study indicate that the GED-GARCH-based VaR approach appears more effective than the well-recognized HSAF (i.e. historical simulation with ARMA forecasts). Moreover, this approach is also more realistic and comprehensive than the standard normal distribution-based VaR model that is commonly used. Results reveal that there is significant two-way risk spillover effect between WTI and Brent markets. Supplementary study indicates that at the 99% confidence level, when negative market news arises that brings about a slump in oil price return, historical information on risk in the WTI market helps to forecast the Brent market. Conversely, it is not the case when positive news occurs and returns rise. Historical information on risk in the two markets can facilitate forecasts of future extreme market risks for each other. These results are valuable for anyone who needs evaluation and forecasts of the risk situation in international crude oil markets. (author)

  3. World Equity Premium based Risk Aversion Estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.C.G. Pozzi (Lorenzo)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe equity premium puzzle holds that the coefficient of relative risk aversion estimated from the consumption based CAPM under power utility is excessively high. Moreover, estimates in the literature vary considerably across countries. We gauge the uncertainty pertaining to the country

  4. CHILDHOOD RISK ESTIMATION OF LEAD METAL POISOINING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    2011-10-28

    Oct 28, 2011 ... The childhood lead (Pb) poisoning risk from consumption and risk model data of snail meat from Pb metal contaminated sites of entrance (control), storage dump, dried effluent and waste dump at an abandoned battery factory, in Niger Delta, Nigeria were estimated. Results implicated snail meat from.

  5. Estimation of the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to modifiable risk factors and cost-effectiveness analysis of preventative interventions to reduce this burden in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martí Sebastián

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the primary cause of mortality and morbidity in Argentina representing 34.2% of deaths and 12.6% of potential years of life lost (PYLL. The aim of the study was to estimate the burden of acute coronary heart disease (CHD and stroke and the cost-effectiveness of preventative population-based and clinical interventions. Methods An epidemiological model was built incorporating prevalence and distribution of high blood pressure, high cholesterol, hyperglycemia, overweight and obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, obtained from the Argentine Survey of Risk Factors dataset. Population Attributable Fraction (PAF of each risk factor was estimated using relative risks from international sources. Total fatal and non-fatal events, PYLL and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY were estimated. Costs of event were calculated from local utilization databases and expressed in international dollars (I$. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER were estimated for six interventions: reducing salt in bread, mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation, pharmacological therapy of high blood pressure, pharmacological therapy of high cholesterol, tobacco cessation therapy with bupropion, and a multidrug strategy for people with an estimated absolute risk > 20% in 10 years. Results An estimated total of 611,635 DALY was lost due to acute CHD and stroke for 2005. Modifiable risk factors explained 71.1% of DALY and more than 80% of events. Two interventions were cost-saving: lowering salt intake in the population through reducing salt in bread and multidrug therapy targeted to persons with an absolute risk above 20% in 10 years; three interventions had very acceptable ICERs: drug therapy for high blood pressure in hypertensive patients not yet undergoing treatment (I$ 2,908 per DALY saved, mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation amongst smokers (I$ 3,186 per DALY saved, and lowering cholesterol with

  6. Estimation of the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to modifiable risk factors and cost-effectiveness analysis of preventative interventions to reduce this burden in Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, Adolfo; Colantonio, Lisandro; Bardach, Ariel; Caporale, Joaquín; Martí, Sebastián García; Kopitowski, Karin; Alcaraz, Andrea; Gibbons, Luz; Augustovski, Federico; Pichón-Rivière, Andrés

    2010-10-20

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the primary cause of mortality and morbidity in Argentina representing 34.2% of deaths and 12.6% of potential years of life lost (PYLL). The aim of the study was to estimate the burden of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke and the cost-effectiveness of preventative population-based and clinical interventions. An epidemiological model was built incorporating prevalence and distribution of high blood pressure, high cholesterol, hyperglycemia, overweight and obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, obtained from the Argentine Survey of Risk Factors dataset. Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of each risk factor was estimated using relative risks from international sources. Total fatal and non-fatal events, PYLL and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) were estimated. Costs of event were calculated from local utilization databases and expressed in international dollars (I$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were estimated for six interventions: reducing salt in bread, mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation, pharmacological therapy of high blood pressure, pharmacological therapy of high cholesterol, tobacco cessation therapy with bupropion, and a multidrug strategy for people with an estimated absolute risk > 20% in 10 years. An estimated total of 611,635 DALY was lost due to acute CHD and stroke for 2005. Modifiable risk factors explained 71.1% of DALY and more than 80% of events. Two interventions were cost-saving: lowering salt intake in the population through reducing salt in bread and multidrug therapy targeted to persons with an absolute risk above 20% in 10 years; three interventions had very acceptable ICERs: drug therapy for high blood pressure in hypertensive patients not yet undergoing treatment (I$ 2,908 per DALY saved), mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation amongst smokers (I$ 3,186 per DALY saved), and lowering cholesterol with statin drug therapy (I$ 14,432 per DALY saved

  7. Translation of risk factor estimates into on-farm interventions and their effect on Campylobacter broiler flock prevalence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, Helle Mølgaard; Nauta, Maarten; Rosenquist, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    population estimations using logistic regression. To obtain population estimates per country, the predicted prevalence values were multiplied by the frequencies (no. of farms) in a reference population based on data from the risk factor study and a large questionnaire. The latter was included to improve...... improve further when the results are integrated with costs of interventions in a cost effectiveness study. The approach was developed for Campylobacter in broiler flocks, but it can also be applied to other pathogens and other farm animals, given that the required data are available....

  8. The estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction in recent light-duty vehicles on U.S. societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, Tom

    2013-10-01

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently updated its 2003 and 2010 logistic regression analyses of the effect of a reduction in light-duty vehicle mass on US societal fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane, 2012). Societal fatality risk includes the risk to both the occupants of the case vehicle as well as any crash partner or pedestrians. The current analysis is the most thorough investigation of this issue to date. This paper replicates the Kahane analysis and extends it by testing the sensitivity of his results to changes in the definition of risk, and the data and control variables used in the regression models. An assessment by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) indicates that the estimated effect of mass reduction on risk is smaller than in Kahane's previous studies, and is statistically non-significant for all but the lightest cars (Wenzel, 2012a). The estimated effects of a reduction in mass or footprint (i.e. wheelbase times track width) are small relative to other vehicle, driver, and crash variables used in the regression models. The recent historical correlation between mass and footprint is not so large to prohibit including both variables in the same regression model; excluding footprint from the model, i.e. allowing footprint to decrease with mass, increases the estimated detrimental effect of mass reduction on risk in cars and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs)/minivans, but has virtually no effect on light trucks. Analysis by footprint deciles indicates that risk does not consistently increase with reduced mass for vehicles of similar footprint. Finally, the estimated effects of mass and footprint reduction are sensitive to the measure of exposure used (fatalities per induced exposure crash, rather than per VMT), as well as other changes in the data or control variables used. It appears that the safety penalty from lower mass can be mitigated with careful vehicle design, and that manufacturers can

  9. Modelling preventive effectiveness to estimate the equity tipping point: at what coverage can individual preventive interventions reduce socioeconomic disparities in diabetes risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, D G; Ho, T H; Harper, S; Anderson, G M; Lynch, J; Rosella, L C

    2014-07-01

    Most individual preventive therapies potentially narrow or widen health disparities depending on the difference in community effectiveness across socioeconomic position (SEP). The equity tipping point (defined as the point at which health disparities become larger) can be calculated by varying components of community effectiveness such as baseline risk of disease, intervention coverage and/or intervention efficacy across SEP. We used a simple modelling approach to estimate the community effectiveness of diabetes prevention across SEP in Canada under different scenarios of intervention coverage. Five-year baseline diabetes risk differed between the lowest and highest income groups by 1.76%. Assuming complete coverage across all income groups, the difference was reduced to 0.90% (144 000 cases prevented) with lifestyle interventions and 1.24% (88 100 cases prevented) with pharmacotherapy. The equity tipping point was estimated to be a coverage difference of 30% for preventive interventions (100% and 70% coverage among the highest and lowest income earners, respectively). Disparities in diabetes risk could be measurably reduced if existing interventions were equally adopted across SEP. However, disparities in coverage could lead to increased inequity in risk. Simple modelling approaches can be used to examine the community effectiveness of individual preventive interventions and their potential to reduce (or increase) disparities. The equity tipping point can be used as a critical threshold for disparities analyses.

  10. Applying risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E) analysis to hospitals: estimating the costs and consequences of variation in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnon, Jonathan; Caffrey, Orla; Pham, Clarabelle; Grieve, Richard; Ben-Tovim, David; Hakendorf, Paul; Crotty, Maria

    2013-06-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis is well established for pharmaceuticals and medical technologies but not for evaluating variations in clinical practice. This paper describes a novel methodology--risk adjusted cost-effectiveness (RAC-E)--that facilitates the comparative evaluation of applied clinical practice processes. In this application, risk adjustment is undertaken with a multivariate matching algorithm that balances the baseline characteristics of patients attending different settings (e.g., hospitals). Linked, routinely collected data are used to analyse patient-level costs and outcomes over a 2-year period, as well as to extrapolate costs and survival over patient lifetimes. The study reports the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative forms of clinical practice, including a full representation of the statistical uncertainty around the mean estimates. The methodology is illustrated by a case study that evaluates the relative cost-effectiveness of services for patients presenting with acute chest pain across the four main public hospitals in South Australia. The evaluation finds that services provided at two hospitals were dominated, and of the remaining services, the more effective hospital gained life years at a low mean additional cost and had an 80% probability of being the most cost-effective hospital at realistic cost-effectiveness thresholds. Potential determinants of the estimated variation in costs and effects were identified, although more detailed analyses to identify specific areas of variation in clinical practice are required to inform improvements at the less cost-effective institutions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. An evaluation of the accuracy of small-area demographic estimates of population at risk and its effect on prevalence statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Jack D; Alcantara, Adelamar; Ruan, Xiaomin; Vasan, Srini; Nathan, Crouse

    2013-12-20

    Demographic estimates of population at risk often underpin epidemiologic research and public health surveillance efforts. In spite of their central importance to epidemiology and public-health practice, little previous attention has been paid to evaluating the magnitude of errors associated with such estimates or the sensitivity of epidemiologic statistics to these effects. In spite of the well-known observation that accuracy in demographic estimates declines as the size of the population to be estimated decreases, demographers continue to face pressure to produce estimates for increasingly fine-grained population characteristics at ever-smaller geographic scales. Unfortunately, little guidance on the magnitude of errors that can be expected in such estimates is currently available in the literature and available for consideration in small-area epidemiology. This paper attempts to fill this current gap by producing a Vintage 2010 set of single-year-of-age estimates for census tracts, then evaluating their accuracy and precision in light of the results of the 2010 Census. These estimates are produced and evaluated for 499 census tracts in New Mexico for single-years of age from 0 to 21 and for each sex individually. The error distributions associated with these estimates are characterized statistically using non-parametric statistics including the median and 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. The impact of these errors are considered through simulations in which observed and estimated 2010 population counts are used as alternative denominators and simulated event counts are used to compute a realistic range fo prevalence values. The implications of the results of this study for small-area epidemiologic research in cancer and environmental health are considered.

  12. IMPROVED RISK ESTIMATES FOR CARBON TETRACHLORIDE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benson, Janet M.; Springer, David L.

    1999-12-31

    Carbon tetrachloride has been used extensively within the DOE nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume consumer of CCl4 in the United States using 5000 gallons in 1977 alone (Ripple, 1992). At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl4 were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl4 in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford facility have exceeded 8 the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude (Illman, 1993). High levels of CCl4 at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl4 cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates, which assume that CCl4 is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies was to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl4. Specific research objectives of this project were to: (1) compare the rates of CCl4 metabolism by rats, mice and hamsters in vivo and extrapolate those rates to man based on parallel studies on the metabolism of CCl4 by rat, mouse, hamster and human hepatic microsomes in vitro; (2) using hepatic microsome preparations, determine the role of specific cytochrome P450 isoforms in CCl4-mediated toxicity and the effects of repeated inhalation and ingestion of CCl4 on these isoforms; and (3) evaluate the toxicokinetics of inhaled CCl4 in rats, mice and hamsters. This information has been used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). Another major objective of the project was to provide scientific evidence that CCl4, like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing and regenerative proliferation. In

  13. Risk of error estimated from Palestine pharmacists' knowledge and certainty on the adverse effects and contraindications of active pharmaceutical ingredients and excipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shawahna, Ramzi; Al-Rjoub, Mohammed; Al-Horoub, Mohammed M; Al-Hroub, Wasif; Al-Rjoub, Bisan; Al-Nabi, Bashaaer Abd

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate community pharmacists' knowledge and certainty of adverse effects and contraindications of pharmaceutical products to estimate the risk of error. Factors influencing their knowledge and certainty were also investigated. The knowledge of community pharmacists was assessed in a cross-sectional design using a multiple-choice questions test on the adverse effects and contraindications of active pharmaceutical ingredients and excipients from May 2014 to March 2015. Self-rated certainty scores were also recorded for each question. Knowledge and certainty scores were combined to estimate the risk of error. Out of 315 subjects, 129 community pharmacists (41.0%) completed the 30 multiple-choice questions test on active ingredients and excipients. Knowledge on active ingredients was associated with the year of graduation and obtaining a licence to practice pharmacy. Knowledge on excipients was associated with the degree obtained. There was higher risk of error in items on excipients than those on ingredients (PPalestine was insufficient with high risk of errors. Knowledge of community pharmacists on the safety issues of active ingredients and excipients need to be improved.

  14. Estimating and explaining the effect of education and income on head and neck cancer risk: INHANCE consortium pooled analysis of 31 case-control studies from 27 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, David I; Brenner, Darren R; McMahon, Alex D; Macpherson, Lorna M D; Agudo, Antonio; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Bosetti, Cristina; Brenner, Hermann; Castellsague, Xavier; Chen, Chu; Curado, Maria Paula; Curioni, Otávio A; Dal Maso, Luigino; Daudt, Alexander W; de Gois Filho, José F; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Edefonti, Valeria; Fabianova, Eleonora; Fernandez, Leticia; Franceschi, Silvia; Gillison, Maura; Hayes, Richard B; Healy, Claire M; Herrero, Rolando; Holcatova, Ivana; Jayaprakash, Vijayvel; Kelsey, Karl; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Koifman, Sergio; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lagiou, Pagona; Lazarus, Philip; Levi, Fabio; Lissowska, Jolanta; Luce, Daniele; Macfarlane, Tatiana V; Mates, Dana; Matos, Elena; McClean, Michael; Menezes, Ana M; Menvielle, Gwenn; Merletti, Franco; Morgenstern, Hal; Moysich, Kirsten; Müller, Heiko; Muscat, Joshua; Olshan, Andrew F; Purdue, Mark P; Ramroth, Heribert; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Rudnai, Peter; Schantz, Stimson; Schwartz, Stephen M; Shangina, Oxana; Simonato, Lorenzo; Smith, Elaine; Stucker, Isabelle; Sturgis, Erich M; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Talamini, Renato; Thomson, Peter; Vaughan, Thomas L; Wei, Qingyi; Winn, Deborah M; Wunsch-Filho, Victor; Yu, Guo-Pei; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Zheng, Tongzhang; Znaor, Ariana; Boffetta, Paolo; Chuang, Shu-Chun; Ghodrat, Marianoosh; Amy Lee, Yuan-Chin; Hashibe, Mia; Brennan, Paul

    2015-03-01

    Low socioeconomic status has been reported to be associated with head and neck cancer risk. However, previous studies have been too small to examine the associations by cancer subsite, age, sex, global region and calendar time and to explain the association in terms of behavioral risk factors. Individual participant data of 23,964 cases with head and neck cancer and 31,954 controls from 31 studies in 27 countries pooled with random effects models. Overall, low education was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (OR = 2.50; 95% CI = 2.02 - 3.09). Overall one-third of the increased risk was not explained by differences in the distribution of cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors; and it remained elevated among never users of tobacco and nondrinkers (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.13 - 2.31). More of the estimated education effect was not explained by cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors: in women than in men, in older than younger groups, in the oropharynx than in other sites, in South/Central America than in Europe/North America and was strongest in countries with greater income inequality. Similar findings were observed for the estimated effect of low versus high household income. The lowest levels of income and educational attainment were associated with more than 2-fold increased risk of head and neck cancer, which is not entirely explained by differences in the distributions of behavioral risk factors for these cancers and which varies across cancer sites, sexes, countries and country income inequality levels. © 2014 UICC.

  15. Estimating and explaining the effect of education and income on head and neck cancer risk: INHANCE consortium pooled analysis of 31 case-control studies from 27 countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, David I.; Brenner, Darren R.; McMahon, Alex D.; Macpherson, Lorna M.D.; Agudo, Antonio; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Bosetti, Cristina; Brenner, Hermann; Castellsague, Xavier; Chen, Chu; Curado, Maria Paula; Curioni, Otávio A.; Maso, Luigino Dal; Daudt, Alexander W.; de Gois Filho, José F.; D'Souza, Gypsyamber; Edefonti, Valeria; Fabianova, Eleonora; Fernandez, Leticia; Franceschi, Silvia; Gillison, Maura; Hayes, Richard B.; Healy, Claire M.; Herrero, Rolando; Holcatova, Ivana; Jayaprakash, Vijayvel; Kelsey, Karl; Kjaerheim, Kristina; Koifman, Sergio; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lagiou, Pagona; Lazarus, Philip; Levi, Fabio; Lissowska, Jolanta; Luce, Daniele; Macfarlane, Tatiana V.; Mates, Dana; Matos, Elena; McClean, Michael; Menezes, Ana M; Menvielle, Gwenn; Merletti, Franco; Morgenstern, Hal; Moysich, Kirsten; Müller, Heiko; Muscat, Joshua; Olshan, Andrew F.; Purdue, Mark P.; Ramroth, Heribert; Richiardi, Lorenzo; Rudnai, Peter; Schantz, Stimson; Schwartz, Stephen M.; Shangina, Oxana; Simonato, Lorenzo; Smith, Elaine; Stucker, Isabelle; Sturgis, Erich M.; Szeszenia-Dabrowska, Neonila; Talamini, Renato; Thomson, Peter; Vaughan, Thomas L.; Wei, Qingyi; Winn, Deborah M.; Wunsch-Filho, Victor; Yu, Guo-Pei; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Zheng, Tongzhang; Znaor, Ariana; Boffetta, Paolo; Chuang, Shu-Chun; Ghodrat, Marianoosh; Lee, Yuan-Chin Amy; Hashibe, Mia; Brennan, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Low socioeconomic status has been reported to be associated with head and neck cancer risk. However, previous studies have been too small to examine the associations by cancer subsite, age, sex, global region and calendar time and to explain the association in terms of behavioral risk factors. Individual participant data of 23,964 cases with head and neck cancer and 31,954 controls from 31 studies in 27 countries pooled with random effects models. Overall, low education was associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (OR = 2.50; 95% CI = 2.02 – 3.09). Overall one-third of the increased risk was not explained by differences in the distribution of cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors; and it remained elevated among never users of tobacco and nondrinkers (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.13 – 2.31). More of the estimated education effect was not explained by cigarette smoking and alcohol behaviors: in women than in men, in older than younger groups, in the oropharynx than in other sites, in South/Central America than in Europe/North America and was strongest in countries with greater income inequality. Similar findings were observed for the estimated effect of low versus high household income. The lowest levels of income and educational attainment were associated with more than 2-fold increased risk of head and neck cancer, which is not entirely explained by differences in the distributions of behavioral risk factors for these cancers and which varies across cancer sites, sexes, countries and country income inequality levels. PMID:24996155

  16. Spatial ascariasis risk estimation using socioeconomic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valencia, Luis Iván Ortiz; Fortes, Bruno de Paula Menezes Drumond; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

    2005-12-01

    Frequently, disease incidence is mapped as area data, for example, census tracts, districts or states. Spatial disease incidence can be highly heterogeneous inside these areas. Ascariasis is a highly prevalent disease, which is associated with poor sanitation and hygiene. Geostatistics was applied to model spatial distribution of Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events in a poor community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data were gathered from a coproparasitologic and a domiciliary survey in 1550 children aged 1-9. Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events were spatially estimated using Indicator Kriging. Cokriging models with a Linear Model of Coregionalization incorporating one socioeconomic variable were implemented. If a housewife attended school for less than four years, the non-use of a home water filter, a household density greater than one, and a household income lower than one Brazilian minimum wage increased the risk of Ascariasis. Cokriging improved spatial estimation of Ascariasis risk areas when compared to Indicator Kriging and detected more Ascariasis very-high risk areas than the GIS Overlay method.

  17. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  18. The impact of involved node, involved field and mantle field radiotherapy on estimated radiation doses and risk of late effects for pediatric patients with Hodgkin lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maraldo, M. V.; Jorgensen, M.; Brodin, N. P.

    2014-01-01

    –II classical HL patients lifetime excess risks of cardiac morbidity, cardiac mortality, lung, breast, and thyroid cancer with each technique were estimated. The estimated excess risks attributable to RT were based on HL series with long-term follow......IFRT), and Involved Node RT (INRT) and the risk of radiation-induced cardiovascular disease, secondary cancers, and the corresponding Life Years Lost (LYL) is estimated with each technique. PROCEDURE: INRT, mIFRT, IFRT, and MF plans (20 and 30 Gy) were simulated for 10 supradiaphragmatic, clinical stage I......-up, treating death from other causes as competing risks. The corresponding LYL were derived from the estimated excess risks. Statistical analyses were performed with repeated measures ANOVA. RESULTS: Both a reduction in field size and in prescribed radiation dose significantly lowered the estimated dose...

  19. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  20. Development of approaches to estimation of risk parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.A. Yeliseyeva

    2017-09-01

    To solve the risk estimation problems, issues involved in the estimation of risk parameters have been considered with different options of the HPF state graphical space interpretation. Peculiarities of estimating the risk sensitivity and the risk degree have been described and the evolution of approaches to the estimation of risk in the HPF design and operation has been shown. Big data analysis methods for risk management have been proposed.

  1. MARKET RISK ESTIMATION IN (T+-TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radik B. Begov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Market risk analysis and estimation are presentedin T+ transactionsas they are used within the Moscow Exchange. There is a need to do so as a result of the cut-off of a new REPO product with Central Counterpartner (CCP. Here repurchase agreement goes through the National Clearing Center (NCC, the last being a bank and a clearing structure within the Moscow Exchange group.NCC actsas an intermediary (so called “Central Counterpartner” between trading participants.REPOs with CCP raisecontractor claims and commitments to the CCP which takes the risk of default on commitments from unfair contract side. The REPO with CCP cut-off made ready a technological platform to implement T+2 trades at the Moscow Exchange. As a result of it there appeared the possibility to enter security purchase/sell contracts partially collateralized. All these transactions (the REPO with CCP, T+ made it a must determining security market risks. The paper is aimed at presenting VaR-like risk estimates. The methods used are from the computer fi nance. Unusual TS rate of return indicator is proposed and applied to find optimal portfolios under the Markowitz approach and their VaRs (losses forecasts given the real “big” share price data and various horizons. Portfolio extreme rate and loss forecasting is our goal. To this end the forecasts are computed for three horizons (2, 5 and 10 days and for three significance levels.There were developed R-, Excel- and Bloomberg-basedsoftware tools as needed. The whole range of proposed computing steps and the tables with charts may be considered as candidates to be included in the future market risk standards.Paper results permit capital market participants to choose the correct (as to the required risk level common stocks.

  2. Effectiveness of Ezetimibe in Reducing the Estimated Risk for Fatal Cardiovascular Events in Hypercholesterolaemic Patients with Inadequate Lipid Control While on Statin Monotherapy as Measured by the SCORE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John S. Sampalis

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. The aim of this prospective cohort, multicentre study was to assess the effect of coadministrating ezetimibe 10 mg/day with an ongoing statin on the estimated risk for Cardiovascular (CVD mortality in patients with persistently elevated LDL-C after statin monotherapy. Methods. The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE function was used to estimate the 10-year risk for cardiovascular mortality at baseline and 6 weeks. Primary outcome measures were absolute and percent changes in estimated Coronary Heart Disease (CHD Mortality Risk, and general CVD Mortality Risk (Total CVD Mortality Risk. Results. 825 patients were included in the analysis. Mean (SD age was 62 (10.5 years and 62.3% were males. The mean (SD estimated Total CVD Mortality Risk decreased from 0.068 (0.059 at baseline to 0.053 (0.046 at 6 weeks (RR = 0.77; 95% CI:0.689–0.867, while the estimated CHD Mortality Risk decreased from 0.047 (0.040 at baseline to 0.034 (0.029 at 6 weeks (RR = 0.72; 95% CI:0.624–0.826. Conclusions. Co-administration of ezetimibe with a statin is effective in significantly reducing the estimated risk for cardiovascular mortality as measured by the SCORE model.

  3. Auditory risk estimates for youth target shooting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinke, Deanna K; Murphy, William J; Finan, Donald S; Lankford, James E; Flamme, Gregory A; Stewart, Michael; Soendergaard, Jacob; Jerome, Trevor W

    2014-03-01

    To characterize the impulse noise exposure and auditory risk for youth recreational firearm users engaged in outdoor target shooting events. The youth shooting positions are typically standing or sitting at a table, which places the firearm closer to the ground or reflective surface when compared to adult shooters. Acoustic characteristics were examined and the auditory risk estimates were evaluated using contemporary damage-risk criteria for unprotected adult listeners and the 120-dB peak limit suggested by the World Health Organization (1999) for children. Impulses were generated by 26 firearm/ammunition configurations representing rifles, shotguns, and pistols used by youth. Measurements were obtained relative to a youth shooter's left ear. All firearms generated peak levels that exceeded the 120 dB peak limit suggested by the WHO for children. In general, shooting from the seated position over a tabletop increases the peak levels, LAeq8 and reduces the unprotected maximum permissible exposures (MPEs) for both rifles and pistols. Pistols pose the greatest auditory risk when fired over a tabletop. Youth should utilize smaller caliber weapons, preferably from the standing position, and always wear hearing protection whenever engaging in shooting activities to reduce the risk for auditory damage.

  4. Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K

    2017-01-01

    Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature...... review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers...... and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality...

  5. Annual effective dose due to residential radon progeny in Sweden: Evaluations based on current risk projections models and on risk estimates from a nation-wide Swedish epidemiological study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doi, M. [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan); Lagarde, F. [Karolinska Inst., Stockholm (Sweden). Inst. of Environmental Medicine; Falk, R.; Swedjemark, G.A. [Swedish Radiation Protection Inst., Stockholm (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Effective dose per unit radon progeny exposure to Swedish population in 1992 is estimated by the risk projection model based on the Swedish epidemiological study of radon and lung cancer. The resulting values range from 1.29 - 3.00 mSv/WLM and 2.58 - 5.99 mSv/WLM, respectively. Assuming a radon concentration of 100 Bq/m{sup 3}, an equilibrium factor of 0.4 and an occupancy factor of 0.6 in Swedish houses, the annual effective dose for the Swedish population is estimated to be 0.43 - 1.98 mSv/year, which should be compared to the value of 1.9 mSv/year, according to the UNSCEAR 1993 report. 27 refs, tabs, figs.

  6. The association between albuminuria and long-term renal risk : How to improve the precision of drug effect estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kröpelin, Tobias Felix

    2016-01-01

    The worldwide increase in the number of patients with diabetic kidney disease needs to be tackled due to the consequences of the disease. Improving the quality of life and survival of this growing number of patients requires timely access to novel and effective treatments. Timely access to novel

  7. Simplifying cardiovascular risk estimation using resting heart rate.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-09-01

    Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is a known, independent cardiovascular (CV) risk factor, but is not included in risk estimation systems, including Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). We aimed to derive risk estimation systems including RHR as an extra variable and assess the value of this addition.

  8. Recruitment-adjusted estimates of HIV prevalence and risk among men who have sex with men: effects of weighting venue-based sampling data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenness, Samuel M; Neaigus, Alan; Murrill, Christopher S; Gelpi-Acosta, Camila; Wendel, Travis; Hagan, Holly

    2011-01-01

    We investigated the impact of recruitment bias within the venue-based sampling (VBS) method, which is widely used to estimate disease prevalence and risk factors among groups, such as men who have sex with men (MSM), that congregate at social venues. In a 2008 VBS study of 479 MSM in New York City, we calculated venue-specific approach rates (MSM approached/MSM counted) and response rates (MSM interviewed/MSM approached), and then compared crude estimates of HIV risk factors and seroprevalence with estimates weighted to address the lower selection probabilities of MSM who attend social venues infrequently or were recruited at high-volume venues. Our approach rates were lowest at dance clubs, gay pride events, and public sex strolls, where venue volumes were highest; response rates ranged from 39% at gay pride events to 95% at community-based organizations. Sixty-seven percent of respondents attended MSM-oriented social venues at least weekly, and 21% attended such events once a month or less often in the past year. In estimates adjusted for these variations, the prevalence of several past-year risk factors (e.g., unprotected anal intercourse with casual/exchange partners, ≥5 total partners, group sex encounters, at least weekly binge drinking, and hard-drug use) was significantly lower compared with crude estimates. Adjusted HIV prevalence was lower than unadjusted prevalence (15% vs. 18%), but not significantly. Not adjusting VBS data for recruitment biases could overestimate HIV risk and prevalence when the selection probability is greater for higher-risk MSM. While further examination of recruitment-adjustment methods for VBS data is needed, presentation of both unadjusted and adjusted estimates is currently indicated.

  9. Can radiation research impact the estimation of risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preston, R Julian

    2017-10-01

    This review is a contribution to the memory of Dr William (Bill) Morgan and highlights an area of research and deliberation that he considered extremely important in support of the setting of protective radiation dose limits. Biological research has generally played a minor role in the estimation of adverse health outcomes following exposure to low doses and low dose rates of radiation. The reliance has been on the available, quite extensive data base of epidemiology studies. The major concern is that such studies are for moderate to high doses requiring risk extrapolation methodologies for estimating low dose effects. There are significant uncertainties associated with this approach. This review will discuss how radiation biology studies can potentially reduce this uncertainty through the use of a key events/adverse outcome pathways approach to identify bioindicators of cancer and non-cancer effects for use as parameters in biologically-based dose-response (BBDR) models. Such models would allow for an improved extrapolation approach for estimating health effects at low doses and low dose rates of radiation. Based on reported and ongoing studies for environmental chemicals, the adverse outcome/key events approach is a viable one for enhanced risk assessment (and risk management practice). The identification of informative bioindicators of adverse health effects will be a challenge but with modern molecular and advanced computational techniques, it is certainly feasible. This approach provides a framework for defining a low dose radiation research program; something that was of great importance to Bill Morgan.

  10. Efficient Estimation of Nonparametric Genetic Risk Function with Censored Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuanjia; Liang, Baosheng; Tong, Xingwei; Marder, Karen; Bressman, Susan; Orr-Urtreger, Avi; Giladi, Nir; Zeng, Donglin

    2015-09-01

    With an increasing number of causal genes discovered for complex human disorders, it is crucial to assess the genetic risk of disease onset for individuals who are carriers of these causal mutations and compare the distribution of age-at-onset with that in non-carriers. In many genetic epidemiological studies aiming at estimating causal gene effect on disease, the age-at-onset of disease is subject to censoring. In addition, some individuals' mutation carrier or non-carrier status can be unknown due to the high cost of in-person ascertainment to collect DNA samples or death in older individuals. Instead, the probability of these individuals' mutation status can be obtained from various sources. When mutation status is missing, the available data take the form of censored mixture data. Recently, various methods have been proposed for risk estimation from such data, but none is efficient for estimating a nonparametric distribution. We propose a fully efficient sieve maximum likelihood estimation method, in which we estimate the logarithm of the hazard ratio between genetic mutation groups using B-splines, while applying nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for the reference baseline hazard function. Our estimator can be calculated via an expectation-maximization algorithm which is much faster than existing methods. We show that our estimator is consistent and semiparametrically efficient and establish its asymptotic distribution. Simulation studies demonstrate superior performance of the proposed method, which is applied to the estimation of the distribution of the age-at-onset of Parkinson's disease for carriers of mutations in the leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 gene.

  11. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, A S R; Nauta, M J

    2015-02-16

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance of accounting for the Poisson randomness in counts, the difference between treating "true" zeroes as such or as censored below a limit of quantification (LOQ) and the importance of making the correct assumption about the underlying distribution of concentrations. By running a simulation experiment with zero-inflated Poisson-lognormal distributed data and an existing QMRA model from retail to consumer level, it was possible to assess the difference between expected risk and the risk estimated with using a lognormal, a zero-inflated lognormal, a Poisson-gamma, a zero-inflated Poisson-gamma and a zero-inflated Poisson-lognormal distribution. We show that the impact of the choice of different probability distributions to describe concentrations at retail on risk estimates is dependent both on concentration and prevalence levels. We also show that the use of an LOQ should be done consciously, especially when zero-inflation is not used. In general, zero-inflation does not necessarily improve the absolute risk estimation, but performance of zero-inflated distributions in QMRA tends to be

  12. Estimation of myocardial volume at risk from CT angiography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liangjia; Gao, Yi; Mohan, Vandana; Stillman, Arthur; Faber, Tracy; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2011-03-01

    The determination of myocardial volume at risk distal to coronary stenosis provides important information for prognosis and treatment of coronary artery disease. In this paper, we present a novel computational framework for estimating the myocardial volume at risk in computed tomography angiography (CTA) imagery. Initially, epicardial and endocardial surfaces, and coronary arteries are extracted using an active contour method. Then, the extracted coronary arteries are projected onto the epicardial surface, and each point on this surface is associated with its closest coronary artery using the geodesic distance measurement. The likely myocardial region at risk on the epicardial surface caused by a stenosis is approximated by the region in which all its inner points are associated with the sub-branches distal to the stenosis on the coronary artery tree. Finally, the likely myocardial volume at risk is approximated by the volume in between the region at risk on the epicardial surface and its projection on the endocardial surface, which is expected to yield computational savings over risk volume estimation using the entire image volume. Furthermore, we expect increased accuracy since, as compared to prior work using the Euclidean distance, we employ the geodesic distance in this work. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on pig heart CTA datasets.

  13. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  14. Radiation risk estimation based on measurement error models

    CERN Document Server

    Masiuk, Sergii; Shklyar, Sergiy; Chepurny, Mykola; Likhtarov, Illya

    2017-01-01

    This monograph discusses statistics and risk estimates applied to radiation damage under the presence of measurement errors. The first part covers nonlinear measurement error models, with a particular emphasis on efficiency of regression parameter estimators. In the second part, risk estimation in models with measurement errors is considered. Efficiency of the methods presented is verified using data from radio-epidemiological studies.

  15. Estimates of health risk from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, R.E.; Nelson, N.S.; Ellett, W.H.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1981-11-01

    A dosimetric and health effects analysis has been performed for the Office of Radiation Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess potential hazards from radioactive pollutants. Contemporary dosimetric methods were used to obtain estimates of dose rates to reference organs from internal exposures due to either inhalation of contaminated air or ingestion of contaminated food, or from external exposures due to either immersion in contaminated air or proximity to contaminated ground surfaces. These dose rates were then used to estimate the number of premature cancer deaths arising from such exposures and the corresponding number of years of life lost in a cohort of 100,000 persons, all simultaneously liveborn and all going through life with the same risks of dying from competing causes. The risk of dying from a competing cause for a given year was taken to be the probability of dying from all causes as given in a recent actuarial life table for the total US population.

  16. ESTIMATING RESIDUAL HEDGING RISK WITH LEAST-SQUARES MONTE CARLO

    OpenAIRE

    STEFAN ANKIRCHNER; CHRISTIAN PIGORSCH; NIKOLAUS SCHWEIZER

    2014-01-01

    Frequently, dynamic hedging strategies minimizing risk exposure are not given in closed form, but need to be approximated numerically. This makes it difficult to estimate residual hedging risk, also called basis risk, when only imperfect hedging instruments are at hand. We propose an easy to implement and computationally efficient least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate residual hedging risk. The algorithm approximates the variance minimal hedging strategy within general diffusion mod...

  17. Risk estimates for silicosis: comparison of animal and human studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tran, C.L.; Miller, B.G.; Soutar, C.A.

    2005-09-15

    A risk assessment has been conducted for lung fibrosis from inhaled crystalline silica that follows the traditional approach of extrapolation from animal studies, and the results compared with observed human risks based on epidemiological studies. Bio-mathematical modelling was applied to the available animal data to estimate the NOAEL for inflammation. The resulting estimate for the rat is 0.1 mg.m{sup -3}. Conventional scaling and extrapolation methods recommended by the US EPA have then been applied to estimate a human acceptable average exposure limit. This resulted in an estimate of about 0.001 mg.m{sup -3}. The risk estimates were compared with human risk estimates for fibrosis based on epidemiological data. These comprised ACGIH summary conclusions on the risk estimates provided by epidemiological studies, and the risks demonstrated by one epidemiological study, of Scottish coalworkers, with unusually detailed exposure information. The average exposure limits implied by the risk estimates from the epidemiological studies ranged from 0.01 mg.m{sup -3} to about 0.05 mg.m{sup -3}, some 9 to 45 times higher than the limits derived from the animal studies. The conventional uncertainty factors applied in the animal-based risk estimates may be over-precautionary. Extension of the biomathematical model to extrapolate from animals to humans would provide a sounder basis for extrapolation than the present uncertainty factors. 18 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs., 2 apps.

  18. Smoothed nonparametric estimation for current status competing risks data

    OpenAIRE

    Chenxi Li; Jason P. Fine

    2013-01-01

    We study the nonparametric estimation of the cumulative incidence function and the cause-specific hazard function for current status data with competing risks via kernel smoothing. A smoothed naive nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator and a smoothed full nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator are shown to have pointwise asymptotic normality and faster convergence rates than the corresponding unsmoothed nonparametric likelihood estimators. Using the smoothed estimators and the plug-i...

  19. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF PRACTICAL RADIOGENIC RISK ESTIMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Т. Gubin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical ratios were established according to the description of the calculation procedure for the values of the nominal risk coefficient given in the ICRP Recommendations 2007. It is shown that the lifetime radiogenic risk is a linear functional from the distribution of the dose in time with a multiplier descending with age. As a consequence, application of the nominal risk coefficient in the risk calculations is justified in the case when prolonged exposure is practically evenly distributed in time, and gives a significant deviation at a single exposure. When using the additive model of radiogenic risk proposed in the UNSCEAR Report 2006 for solid cancers, this factor is almost linearly decreasing with the age, which is convenient for its practical application.

  20. The effect of misclassification of diarrhoea on estimates of its occurrence, the identification of risk factors, and the assessment of prevention efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, J C; Neumann, C G; Frerichs, R R

    1989-01-01

    Inaccurate assessment of true diarrhoea status introduces bias into estimates of its occurrence. A cross-sectional study of diarrhoea among 357 children in a rural Kenyan community found the sensitivity and specificity of the mother's report of diarrhoea to be 0.79 and 0.94 respectively, when compared to an independent observation of loose stool consistency. The observed diarrhoea prevalence of 9.5% overestimated the "true" prevalence estimated at 4.8%. With data on an exposure variable, lack of latrine ownership, an observed odds ratio of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-4.3) underestimated the "true" odds ratio of 5.4 (95% CI 2.0-14.5). Misclassification of diarrhoea can hinder the identification of communities of high incidence, the determination of risk factors for diarrhoea, and the evaluation of preventive intervention strategies. A precise definition and reliable means of measuring diarrhoea are critical for evaluating prevention or intervention efforts.

  1. Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, Kerry A.; Rhone, J.; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2011-01-01

    To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space

  2. Estimation of radiation cancer risk in CT-KUB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, M. K. A.; Hashim, S.; Bakar, K. A.; Bradley, D. A.; Ang, W. C.; Bahrudin, N. A.; Mhareb, M. H. A.

    2017-08-01

    The increased demand for computed tomography (CT) in radiological scanning examinations raises the question of a potential health impact from the associated radiation exposures. Focusing on CT kidney-ureter-bladder (CT-KUB) procedures, this work was aimed at determining organ equivalent dose using a commercial CT dose calculator and providing an estimate of cancer risks. The study, which included 64 patients (32 males and 32 females, mean age 55.5 years and age range 30-80 years), involved use of a calibrated CT scanner (Siemens-Somatom Emotion 16-slice). The CT exposures parameter including tube potential, pitch factor, tube current, volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) were recorded and analyzed using CT-EXPO (Version 2.3.1, Germany). Patient organ doses, including for stomach, liver, colon, bladder, red bone marrow, prostate and ovaries were calculated and converted into cancer risks using age- and sex-specific data published in the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII report. With a median value scan range of 36.1 cm, the CTDIvol, DLP, and effective dose were found to be 10.7 mGy, 390.3 mGy cm and 6.2 mSv, respectively. The mean cancer risks for males and females were estimated to be respectively 25 and 46 out of 100,000 procedures with effective doses between 4.2 mSv and 10.1 mSv. Given the increased cancer risks from current CT-KUB procedures compared to conventional examinations, we propose that the low dose protocols for unenhanced CT procedures be taken into consideration before establishing imaging protocols for CT-KUB.

  3. Nomogram for estimating specific consanguinity risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Coke, Ricardo

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes a nomogram to estimate the chance of consanguinity for specific autosomal recessive diseases, taking into account the gene frequencies (q) of the recessive alleles and the coefficient of inbreeding (F) of the family of the proband. PMID:7108917

  4. Estimating Loss to Follow-Up in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy: The Effect of the Competing Risk of Death in Zambia and Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwango, Albert; Stringer, Jeffrey; Ledergerber, Bruno; Mulenga, Lloyd; Bucher, Heiner C.; Westfall, Andrew O.; Calmy, Alexandra; Boulle, Andrew; Chintu, Namwinga; Egger, Matthias; Chi, Benjamin H.

    2011-01-01

    Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings. PMID:22205933

  5. Effects of glomerular filtration rate estimating equations derived from different reference methods on staging and long term mortality risks of chronic kidney disease in a Southeast Asian cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamwong, Sukit; Kitiyakara, Chagriya; Vathesatogkit, Prin; Saranburut, Krittika; Chittamma, Anchalee; Cheepudomwit, Sayan; Vanavanan, Somlak; Akrawichien, Tawatchai; Sritara, Piyamitr

    2016-08-01

    There are limited data on the risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Southeast Asian populations. Several GFR estimating equations have been developed in diverse Asian populations, but they produce markedly discrepant results. We investigated the impact of Asian equations on the mortality risk of CKD in a Thai cohort during long term follow-up, and explored the differences between equations grouped according to the reference GFR methods used to develop them. Employees of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (n = 3430) were enrolled in a health survey and followed up for 22 years. The risks for all-cause mortality for each GFR stage classified by CKD-EPI or different Asian equations were assessed by using Cox proportional hazard models. Equations derived from DTPA clearance (Chinese MDRD, Thai GFR, Singapore CKD-EPI) produced higher GFR, whereas equations from inulin clearance (Japanese CKD-EPI, Taiwan MDRD or Taiwan CKD-EPI) produced lower GFR compared to CKD-EPI. (Average ΔGFR: inulin, -14.9 vs. DTPA +5.80 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) , P Chronic kidney disease prevalence and prognosis in Thais varied widely depending on the equation used. Differences in the reference GFR methods could be an important cause for the discrepancies between Asian equations. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

  6. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  7. Impact of Selection Bias on Estimation of Subsequent Event Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yi-Juan; Schmidt, Amand F; Dudbridge, Frank; Holmes, Michael V; Brophy, James M; Tragante, Vinicius; Li, Ziyi; Liao, Peizhou; Quyyumi, Arshed A; McCubrey, Raymond O; Horne, Benjamin D; Hingorani, Aroon D; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Patel, Riyaz S; Long, Qi

    2017-10-01

    Studies of recurrent or subsequent disease events may be susceptible to bias caused by selection of subjects who both experience and survive the primary indexing event. Currently, the magnitude of any selection bias, particularly for subsequent time-to-event analysis in genetic association studies, is unknown. We used empirically inspired simulation studies to explore the impact of selection bias on the marginal hazard ratio for risk of subsequent events among those with established coronary heart disease. The extent of selection bias was determined by the magnitudes of genetic and nongenetic effects on the indexing (first) coronary heart disease event. Unless the genetic hazard ratio was unrealistically large (>1.6 per allele) and assuming the sum of all nongenetic hazard ratios was bias was usually bias, the probability that a confidence interval included the true effect decreased (undercoverage) with increasing sample size because of increasing precision. Importantly, false-positive rates were not affected by selection bias. In most empirical settings, selection bias is expected to have a limited impact on genetic effect estimates of subsequent event risk. Nevertheless, because of undercoverage increasing with sample size, most confidence intervals will be over precise (not wide enough). When there is no effect modification by history of coronary heart disease, the false-positive rates of association tests will be close to nominal. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  8. Estimating the evolution of flood risk to coastal populations

    OpenAIRE

    Stevens, A.; Clarke, D; Wadey, Matthew P.

    2014-01-01

    The long term evolution of flood risk in a coastal area due to (a) Sea level rise and (b) Population rise is assessed. Historic maps and population data are used to estimate the spatial distribution of the coastal population through time, and extrapolated sea levels are used as a boundary condition in a hydrodynamic flood model to estimate the historic flood extent

  9. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment...

  10. Estimating obsolescence risk from demand data - a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.L. van Jaarsveld (Willem)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper obsolescence of service parts is analyzed in a practical environment. Based on the analysis, we propose a method that can be used to estimate the risk of obsolescence of service parts. The method distinguishes groups of service parts. For these groups, the risk of

  11. Insulin Sensitivity and Mortality Risk Estimation in Patients with Type ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-06-28

    Jun 28, 2017 ... contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance. Methods: Fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, high‑ ...

  12. STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATION OF LOGISTICAL RISKS OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria G. Polikarpova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article offers the methodology of statistical research of the risks of logistical systems to improve the stability and efficiency of Russian industrial enterprises. Realization of this methodology is shown by the example of estimation of the risks of late shipment of goods of OAO Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works, JSC.

  13. Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allodi, Luca; Massacci, Fabio

    2017-08-01

    Current industry standards for estimating cybersecurity risk are based on qualitative risk matrices as opposed to quantitative risk estimates. In contrast, risk assessment in most other industry sectors aims at deriving quantitative risk estimations (e.g., Basel II in Finance). This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two-stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet-facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the power of the attacker as the number of "weaponized" vulnerabilities he/she can exploit, and can be adjusted to match the risk appetite of the organization. We illustrate our methodology by using data from a large financial institution, and discuss the significant mismatch between traditional qualitative risk assessments and our quantitative approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  15. Estimates and influences of reflective opposite-sex norms on alcohol use among a high-risk sample of college students: Exploring Greek-affiliation and gender effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Justin F.; LaBrie, Joseph W.; Lac, Andrew; Sessoms, Ashley; Cail, Jessica

    2012-01-01

    Reflective opposite sex norms are behavior that an individual believes the opposite sex prefers them to do. The current study extends research on this recently introduced construct by examining estimates and influences of reflective norms on drinking in a large high-risk heterosexual sample of male and female college students from two universities. Both gender and Greek-affiliation served as potential statistical moderators of the reflective norms and drinking relationship. All participants (N = 1790; 57% female) answered questions regarding the amount of alcohol they believe members of the opposite sex would like their opposite sex friends, dates, and sexual partners to drink. Participants also answered questions regarding their actual preferences for drinking levels in each of these three relationship categories. Overall, women overestimated how much men prefer their female friends and potential sexual partners to drink, whereas men overestimated how much women prefer their sexual partners to drink. Greek-affiliated males demonstrated higher reflective norms than non-Greek males across all relationship categories, and for dating partners, only Greek-affiliated males misperceived women’s actual preferences. Among women however, there were no differences between reflective norms estimates or the degree of misperception as a function of Greek status. Most importantly, over and above perceived same-sex social norms, higher perceived reflective norms tended to account for greater variance in alcohol consumption for Greeks (vs. non-Greeks) and males (vs. females), particularly within the friend and sexual partner contexts. The findings highlight that potential benefits might arise if existing normative feedback interventions were augmented with reflective normative feedback designed to target the discrepancy between perceived and actual drinking preferences of the opposite sex. PMID:22305289

  16. ITER- International Toxicity Estimates for Risk, new TOXNET database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasulo, Patricia

    2005-01-01

    ITER, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk database, joined the TOXNET system in the winter of 2004. ITER features international comparisons of environmental health risk assessment information and contains over 620 chemical records. ITER includes data from the EPA, Health Canada, the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment of the Netherlands, and other organizations that provide risk values that have been peer-reviewed.

  17. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  18. Multivariate Risk-Return Decision Making Within Dynamic Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Risk management in this paper is focused on multivariate risk-return decision making assuming time-varying estimation. Empirical research in risk management showed that the static "mean-variance" methodology in portfolio optimization is very restrictive with unrealistic assumptions. The objective of this paper is estimation of time-varying portfolio stocks weights by constraints on risk measure. Hence, risk measure dynamic estimation is used in risk controlling. By risk control manager makes free supplementary capital for new investments.Univariate modeling approach is not appropriate, even when portfolio returns are treated as one variable. Portfolio weights are time-varying, and therefore it is necessary to reestimate whole model over time. Using assumption of bivariate Student´s t-distribution, in multivariate GARCH(p,q models, it becomes possible to forecast time-varying portfolio risk much more precisely. The complete procedure of analysis is established from Zagreb Stock Exchange using daily observations of Pliva and Podravka stocks.

  19. Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

    2017-12-05

    Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 1,037,065 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2014-04-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level.

  1. Combining ungrouped and grouped wildfire data to estimate fire risk

    KAUST Repository

    Hernandez-Magallanes, I.

    2013-10-11

    © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Frequently, models are required to combine information obtained from different data sources and on different scales. In this work, we are interested in estimating the risk of wildfire ignition in the USA for a particular time and location by merging two levels of data, namely, individual points and aggregate count of points into areas. The data for federal lands consist of the point location and time of each fire. Nonfederal fires are aggregated by county for a particular year. The probability model is based on the wildfire point process. Assuming a smooth intensity function, a locally weighted likelihood fit is used, which incorporates the group effect. A logit model is used under the assumption of the existence of a latent process, and fuel conditions are included as a covariate. The model assessment is based on a residual analysis, while the False Discovery Rate detects spatial patterns. A benefit of the proposed model is that there is no need of arbitrary aggregation of individual fires into counts. A map of predicted probability of ignition for the Midwest US in 1990 is included. The predicted ignition probabilities and the estimated total number of expected fires are required for the allocation of resources.

  2. Uncertainty Analysis of the Estimated Risk in Formal Safety Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Molin Sun

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An uncertainty analysis is required to be carried out in formal safety assessment (FSA by the International Maritime Organization. The purpose of this article is to introduce the uncertainty analysis technique into the FSA process. Based on the uncertainty identification of input parameters, probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. An approach which combines the Monte Carlo random sampling of probability distribution functions with the a-cuts for fuzzy calculus is proposed to propagate the uncertainties. One output of the FSA process is societal risk (SR, which can be evaluated in the two-dimensional frequency–fatality (FN diagram. Thus, the confidence-level-based SR is presented to represent the uncertainty of SR in two dimensions. In addition, a method for time window selection is proposed to estimate the magnitude of uncertainties, which is an important aspect of modeling uncertainties. Finally, a case study is carried out on an FSA study on cruise ships. The results show that the uncertainty analysis of SR generates a two-dimensional area for a certain degree of confidence in the FN diagram rather than a single FN curve, which provides more information to authorities to produce effective risk control measures.

  3. Estimating obsolescence risk from demand data - a case study

    OpenAIRE

    Jaarsveld, Willem

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper obsolescence of service parts is analyzed in a practical environment. Based on the analysis, we propose a method that can be used to estimate the risk of obsolescence of service parts. The method distinguishes groups of service parts. For these groups, the risk of obsolescence is estimated using the behavior of similar groups of service parts in the past. The method uses demand data as main information source, and can therefore be applied without the use of an expert...

  4. Estimate capital for operational risk using peak over threshold method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saputri, Azizah Anugrahwati; Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar

    2015-12-01

    Operational risk is inherent in bank activities. To cover this risk a bank reserves a fund called as capital. Often a bank uses Basic Indicator approach (BIA), Standardized Approach (SA), or Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) for estimating the capital amount. BIA and SA are less-objective in comparison to AMA, since BIA and SA use non-actual loss data while AMA use the actual one. In this research, we define the capital as an OpVaR (i.e. the worst loss at a given confidence level) which will be estimated by Peak Over Threshold Method.

  5. Model Averaging Software for Dichotomous Dose Response Risk Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew W. Wheeler

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Model averaging has been shown to be a useful method for incorporating model uncertainty in quantitative risk estimation. In certain circumstances this technique is computationally complex, requiring sophisticated software to carry out the computation. We introduce software that implements model averaging for risk assessment based upon dichotomous dose-response data. This software, which we call Model Averaging for Dichotomous Response Benchmark Dose (MADr-BMD, fits the quantal response models, which are also used in the US Environmental Protection Agency benchmark dose software suite, and generates a model-averaged dose response model to generate benchmark dose and benchmark dose lower bound estimates. The software fulfills a need for risk assessors, allowing them to go beyond one single model in their risk assessments based on quantal data by focusing on a set of models that describes the experimental data.

  6. From mechanisms to risk estimation - bridging the chasm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, S. B.; Hazelton, W. D.; Luebeck, E. G.; Moolgavkar, S. H.

    2004-01-01

    We have a considerable amount of work ahead of us to determine the importance of the wealth of new information emerging in the fields of sub-cellular, cellular and tissue biology in order to improve the estimation of radiation risk at low dose and protracted dose-rate. In this paper, we suggest that there is a need to develop models of the specific health effects of interest (e.g., carcinogenesis in specific tissues), which embody as much of the mechanistic (i.e., biological) information as is deemed necessary. Although it is not realistic to expect that every radiation-induced process should or could be included, we can hope that the major factors that shape the time dependence of evolution of damage can be identified and quantified to the point where reasonable estimations of risk can be made. Regarding carcinogenesis in particular, the structure of the model itself plays a role in determining the relative importance of various processes. We use a specific form of a multi-stage carcinogenic model to illustrate this point. We show in a review of the application of this model to lung cancer incidence and mortality in two exposed populations that for both high- and low-LET radiation, there is evidence of an "inverse dose-rate" or protraction effect. This result could be of some considerable importance, because it would imply that risk from protracted exposure even to low-LET radiation might be greater than from acute exposure, an opinion not currently held in the radiation protection community. This model also allows prediction of the evolution of the risk over the lifetimes of the exposed individuals. One inference is that radiation-induced initiation (i.e., the first cellular carcinogenic event(s) occurring in normal tissue after the passage of the radiation) may not be the driving factor in the risk, but more important may be the effects of the radiation on already-initiated cells in the tissue. Although present throughout the length of the exposure, radiation

  7. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  8. The complex model of risk and progression of AMD estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Akopyan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to develop a method and a statistical model to estimate individual risk of AMD and the risk for progression to advanced AMD using clinical and genetic risk factors.Methods: A statistical risk assessment model was developed using stepwise binary logistic regression analysis. to estimate the population differences in the prevalence of allelic variants of genes and for the development of models adapted to the population of Moscow region genotyping and assessment of the influence of other risk factors was performed in two groups: patients with differ- ent stages of AMD (n = 74, and control group (n = 116. Genetic risk factors included in the study: polymorphisms in the complement system genes (C3 and CFH, genes at 10q26 locus (ARMS2 and HtRA1, polymorphism in the mitochondrial gene Mt-ND2. Clinical risk factors included in the study: age, gender, high body mass index, smoking history.Results: A comprehensive analysis of genetic and clinical risk factors for AMD in the study group was performed. Compiled statis- tical model assessment of individual risk of AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.5%, AUC = 0.76. Risk factors of late AMD, compiled a statistical model describing the probability of late AMD, the sensitivity of the model — 66.7%, specificity — 78.3%, AUC = 0.73. the developed system allows determining the most likely version of the current late AMD: dry or wet.Conclusion: the developed test system and the mathematical algorhythm for determining the risk of AMD, risk of progression to advanced AMD have fair diagnostic informative and promising for use in clinical practice.

  9. Harmonizing and comparing single-type natural hazard risk estimations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Fleming

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Single-type hazard and risk assessment is the usual framework followed by disaster risk reduction (DRR practitioners. There is therefore a need to present and compare the results arising from different hazard and risk types. Here we describe a simple method for combining risk curves arising from different hazard types in order to gain a first impression of the total risk. We show how the resulting total (and individual risk estimates can be examined and compared using so-called risk matrices, a format preferred by some DRR practitioners. We apply this approach to Cologne, Germany, which is subject to floods, windstorms and earthquakes. We then use a new series of risk calculations that consider epistemic uncertainty. The Mann-Whitney test is applied to determine if the losses arising from pairs of hazards are comparable for a given return period. This benefits decision makers as it allows a ranking of hazards with respect to expected damage. Such a comparison would assist planners in the allocation of resources towards the most efficient mitigation actions. However, the results are dependent upon the distribution of estimates (i.e., level of uncertainty, which is in turn a function of our state of knowledge.

  10. Estimation of the Disease Burden Attributable to 11 Risk Factors in Hubei Province, China: A Comparative Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Fangfang; Zhang, Lan; Yu, Chuanhua; Hu, Songbo; Zhang, Yunquan

    2016-09-23

    In order to estimate the health losses caused by common risk factors in the Hubei province, China, we calculated the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 11 risk factors. We estimated the exposure distributions of risk factors in Hubei Province in 2013 from the monitoring system on chronic disease and related risk factors, combined with relative risk (RR) in order to calculate the population attributable fraction. Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were then estimated together with cause-specific deaths and DALYs. In total, 53.39% of the total deaths and 36.23% of the total DALYs in Hubei were a result of the 11 selected risk factors. The top five risk factors were high blood pressure, smoking, high body mass index, diet low in fruits and alcohol use, accounting for 14.68%, 12.57%, 6.03%, 3.90% and 3.19% of total deaths, respectively, and 9.41%, 7.22%, 4.42%, 2.51% and 2.44% of total DALYs, respectively. These risk factors, especially high blood pressure, smoking and high body mass index, significantly influenced quality of life, causing a large number of deaths and DALYs. The burden of chronic disease could be substantially reduced if these risk factors were effectively controlled, which would allow people to enjoy healthier lives.

  11. Adjusting for reverse causation to estimate the effect of obesity on mortality after incident heart failure in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakiba, Maryam; Soori, Hamid; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Nazari, Seyed Saeed Hashemi; Salimi, Yahya

    2016-01-01

    The lower mortality rate of obese patients with heart failure (HF) has been partly attributed to reverse causation bias due to weight loss caused by disease. Using data about weight both before and after HF, this study aimed to adjust for reverse causation and examine the association of obesity both before and after HF with mortality. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, 308 patients with data available from before and after the incidence of HF were included. Pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity were defined based on body mass index measurements at least three months before and after incident HF. The associations of pre-morbid and post-morbid obesity and weight change with survival after HF were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model. Pre-morbid obesity was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 2.49) but post-morbid obesity was associated with increased survival (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.88). Adjusting for weight change due to disease as a confounder of the obesity-mortality relationship resulted in the absence of any significant associations between post-morbid obesity and mortality. This study demonstrated that controlling for reverse causality by adjusting for the confounder of weight change may remove or reverse the protective effect of obesity on mortality among patients with incident HF.

  12. Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkis Vicente Sánchez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: diabetes mellitus accelerates atherosclerotic changes throughout the vascular tree and consequently increases the risk of developing fatal acute events. Objective: to estimate the global cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Method: a cross-sectional study of a series of type 2 diabetic patients from the People's Council of Constancia, Abreus municipality, Cienfuegos province was conducted from July to December 2012. The universe comprised the 180 people with diabetes in the area. Variables studied were: age, sex, body mass index, nutritional assessment, blood pressure, toxic habits, associated chronic diseases, blood levels of glucose, lipids (total cholesterol and triglycerides and microalbuminuria. World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension prediction charts specific to the region of the Americas, in which Cuba is included, were used to estimate the cardiovascular risk. Results: mean age was 61.63 years and females predominated. Relevant risk factors were hypertension followed by obesity, smoking and dyslipidemia. Mean body mass index was 27.66kg/m2; waist circumference was 94.45 cm in women and 96.86 cm in men. Thirty point six percent had more than two uncontrolled risk factors and 28.3 % of the total presented a high to very high cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: cardiovascular risk prediction charts are helpful tools for making clinical decisions, but their interpretation must be flexible and allow the intervention of clinical reasoning.

  13. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and Risk of Survival in Acute ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To assess the risk of survival in acute stroke using the MDRD equation derived estimated glomerular filtration rate. Design: A prospective observational cross-sectional study. Setting: Medical wards of a tertiary care hospital. Subjects: Eighty three acute stroke patients had GFR calculated within 48 hours of ...

  14. Insulin Sensitivity and Mortality Risk Estimation in Patients with Type ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-07-15

    Jul 15, 2016 ... Akinlade et al.: Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in diabetics. 772. Nigerian Journal of Clinical Practice ¦ Volume 20 ¦ Issue 6 ¦ June 2017 albuminuria.[16] It is, however, known that albuminuria is an important biomarker to predict micro and macrovascular complications and mortality in patients.

  15. Implementation of probabilistic risk estimation for VRU safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunen, E. van; Broek, T.H.A. van den; Kwakkernaat, M.R.J.A.E.; Kotiadis, D.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the design, implementation and results of a novel probabilistic collision warning system. To obtain reliable results for risk estimation, preprocessing sensor data is essential. The work described herein presents all the necessary preprocessing steps such as filtering, sensor

  16. Actuarial Applications and Estimation of Extended CreditRisk+

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonas Hirz

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC is used for parameter estimation. We then link our proposed model to an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+. This allows exact risk aggregation via an efficient numerically stable Panjer recursion algorithm and provides numerous applications in credit, life insurance and annuity portfolios to derive P&L distributions. Furthermore, the model allows exact (without Monte Carlo simulation error calculation of risk measures and their sensitivities with respect to model parameters for P&L distributions such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. Numerous examples, including an application to partial internal models under Solvency II, using Austrian and Australian data are shown.

  17. Does IQ predict total and cardiovascular disease mortality as strongly as other risk factors? Comparison of effect estimates using the Vietnam Experience Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batty, G D; Shipley, M J; Gale, C R

    2008-01-01

    To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality.......To compare the strength of the relation of two measurements of IQ and 11 established risk factors with total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality....

  18. Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

  19. Impact of using different SCORE tables for estimating cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brotons, Carlos; Moral, Irene; Soriano, Núria; Cuixart, Lluís; Osorio, Dimelza; Bottaro, David; Puig, Mireia; Joaniquet, Xavier; Marcos, Albert; Casasa, Albert

    2014-02-01

    In Spain, various SCORE tables are available to estimate cardiovascular risk: tables for low-risk countries, tables calibrated for the Spanish population, and tables that include high-density lipoprotein values. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of using one or another SCORE table in clinical practice. In a cross-sectional study carried out in two primary health care centers, individuals aged 40 to 65 years in whom blood pressure and total cholesterol levels were recorded between March 2010 and March 2012 were selected. Patients with diabetes or a history of cardiovascular disease were excluded. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using SCORE for low-risk countries, SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and the calibrated SCORE. Cardiovascular risk was estimated in 3716 patients. The percentage of patients at high or very high risk was 1.24% with SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 4.73% with the low-risk SCORE, and 15.44% with the calibrated SCORE (P<.01). Treatment with lipid-lowering drugs would be recommended in 10.23% of patients using the calibrated SCORE, 3.12% of patients using the low-risk SCORE, and 0.67% of patients using SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The calibrated SCORE table classifies a larger number of patients at high or very high risk than the SCORE for low-risk countries or the SCORE with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Therefore, its use would imply treating more patients with lipid-lowering medication. Validation studies are needed to assess the most appropriate SCORE table for use in our setting. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  20. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ribeiro Duarte, Ana Sofia; Nauta, Maarten

    2015-01-01

    . In general, zero-inflation does not necessarily improve the absolute risk estimation, but performance of zero-inflated distributions in QMRA tends to be more robust to changes in prevalence and concentration levels, and to the use of an LOQ to interpret zero values, compared to that of their non-zero...... of accounting for the Poisson randomness in counts, the difference between treating “true” zeroes as such or as censored below a limit of quantification (LOQ) and the importance of making the correct assumption about the underlying distribution of concentrations. By running a simulation experiment with zero......-inflated Poisson-lognormal distributed data and an existing QMRA model from retail to consumer level, it was possible to assess the difference between expected risk and the risk estimated with using a lognormal, a zero-inflated lognormal, a Poisson-gamma, a zero-inflated Poisson-gamma and a zero-inflated Poisson...

  1. Best-Estimates in Bond Markets with Reinvestment Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne MacKay

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The concept of best-estimate, prescribed by regulators to value insurance liabilities for accounting and solvency purposes, has recently been discussed extensively in the industry and related academic literature. To differentiate hedgeable and non-hedgeable risks in a general case, recent literature defines best-estimates using orthogonal projections of a claim on the space of replicable payoffs. In this paper, we apply this concept of best-estimate to long-maturity claims in a market with reinvestment risk, since in this case the total liability cannot easily be separated into hedgeable and non-hedgeable parts. We assume that a limited number of short-maturity bonds are traded, and derive the best-estimate price of bonds with longer maturities, thus obtaining a best-estimate yield curve. We therefore use the multifactor Vasiˇcek model and derive within this framework closed-form expressions for the best-estimate prices of long-term bonds.

  2. Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

  3. Estimating the risk of a scuba diving fatality in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lippmann, John; Stevenson, Christopher; McD Taylor, David; Williams, Jo

    2016-12-01

    There are few data available on which to estimate the risk of death for Australian divers. This report estimates the risk of a scuba diving fatality for Australian residents, international tourists diving in Queensland, and clients of a large Victorian dive operator. Numerators for the estimates were obtained from the Divers Alert Network Asia-Pacific dive fatality database. Denominators were derived from three sources: Participation in Exercise, Recreation and Sport Surveys, 2001-2010 (Australian resident diving activity data); Tourism Research Australia surveys of international visitors to Queensland 2006-2014 and a dive operator in Victoria 2007-2014. Annual fatality rates (AFR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using an exact binomial test. Estimated AFRs were: 0.48 (0.37-0.59) deaths per 100,000 dives, or 8.73 (6.85-10.96) deaths per 100,000 divers for Australian residents; 0.12 (0.05-0.25) deaths per 100,000 dives, or 0.46 (0.20-0.91) deaths per 100,000 divers for international visitors to Queensland; and 1.64 (0.20-5.93) deaths per 100,000 dives for the dive operator in Victoria. On a per diver basis, Australian residents are estimated to be almost twenty times more likely to die whilst scuba diving than are international visitors to Queensland, or to lower than fourfold on a per dive basis. On a per dive basis, divers in Victoria are fourteen times more likely to die than are Queensland international tourists. Although some of the estimates are based on potentially unreliable denominator data extrapolated from surveys, the diving fatality rates in Australia appear to vary by State, being considerably lower in Queensland than in Victoria. These estimates are similar to or lower than comparable overseas estimates, although reliability of all such measurements varies with study size and accuracy of the data available.

  4. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C; Chien, Tsair-Wei

    2016-01-22

    Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk.

  5. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  6. Estimating wildfire behavior and effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank A. Albini

    1976-01-01

    This paper presents a brief survey of the research literature on wildfire behavior and effects and assembles formulae and graphical computation aids based on selected theoretical and empirical models. The uses of mathematical fire behavior models are discussed, and the general capabilities and limitations of currently available models are outlined.

  7. Radiation-Induced Second Cancer Risk Estimates From Radionuclide Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarz, Bryan; Besemer, Abigail

    2017-09-01

    The use of radionuclide therapy in the clinical setting is expected to increase significantly over the next decade. There is an important need to understand the radiation-induced second cancer risk associated with these procedures. In this study the radiation-induced cancer risk in five radionuclide therapy patients was investigated. These patients underwent serial SPECT imaging scans following injection as part of a clinical trial testing the efficacy of a 131Iodine-labeled radiopharmaceutical. Using these datasets the committed absorbed doses to multiple sensitive structures were calculated using RAPID, which is a novel Monte Carlo-based 3D dosimetry platform developed for personalized dosimetry. The excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced cancer in these structures was then derived from these dose estimates following the recommendations set forth in the BEIR VII report. The radiation-induced leukemia ERR was highest among all sites considered reaching a maximum value of approximately 4.5. The radiation-induced cancer risk in the kidneys, liver and spleen ranged between 0.3 and 1.3. The lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were also calculated, which ranged from 30 to 1700 cancers per 100,000 persons and were highest for leukemia and the liver for both males and females followed by radiation-induced spleen and kidney cancer. The risks associated with radionuclide therapy are similar to the risk associated with external beam radiation therapy.

  8. Estimating relative risks for common outcome using PROC NLP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Binbing; Wang, Zhuoqiao

    2008-05-01

    In cross-sectional or cohort studies with binary outcomes, it is biologically interpretable and of interest to estimate the relative risk or prevalence ratio, especially when the response rates are not rare. Several methods have been used to estimate the relative risk, among which the log-binomial models yield the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the parameters. Because of restrictions on the parameter space, the log-binomial models often run into convergence problems. Some remedies, e.g., the Poisson and Cox regressions, have been proposed. However, these methods may give out-of-bound predicted response probabilities. In this paper, a new computation method using the SAS Nonlinear Programming (NLP) procedure is proposed to find the MLEs. The proposed NLP method was compared to the COPY method, a modified method to fit the log-binomial model. Issues in the implementation are discussed. For illustration, both methods were applied to data on the prevalence of microalbuminuria (micro-protein leakage into urine) for kidney disease patients from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. The sample SAS macro for calculating relative risk is provided in the appendix.

  9. A regression-based method for estimating risks and relative risks in case-base studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Tina Tsz-Ting; Lee, Wen-Chung

    2013-01-01

    Both the absolute risk and the relative risk (RR) have a crucial role to play in epidemiology. RR is often approximated by odds ratio (OR) under the rare-disease assumption in conventional case-control study; however, such a study design does not provide an estimate for absolute risk. The case-base study is an alternative approach which readily produces RR estimation without resorting to the rare-disease assumption. However, previous researchers only considered one single dichotomous exposure and did not elaborate how absolute risks can be estimated in a case-base study. In this paper, the authors propose a logistic model for the case-base study. The model is flexible enough to admit multiple exposures in any measurement scale-binary, categorical or continuous. It can be easily fitted using common statistical packages. With one additional step of simple calculations of the model parameters, one readily obtains relative and absolute risk estimates as well as their confidence intervals. Monte-Carlo simulations show that the proposed method can produce unbiased estimates and adequate-coverage confidence intervals, for ORs, RRs and absolute risks. The case-base study with all its desirable properties and its methods of analysis fully developed in this paper may become a mainstay in epidemiology.

  10. A regression-based method for estimating risks and relative risks in case-base studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Tsz-Ting Chui

    Full Text Available Both the absolute risk and the relative risk (RR have a crucial role to play in epidemiology. RR is often approximated by odds ratio (OR under the rare-disease assumption in conventional case-control study; however, such a study design does not provide an estimate for absolute risk. The case-base study is an alternative approach which readily produces RR estimation without resorting to the rare-disease assumption. However, previous researchers only considered one single dichotomous exposure and did not elaborate how absolute risks can be estimated in a case-base study. In this paper, the authors propose a logistic model for the case-base study. The model is flexible enough to admit multiple exposures in any measurement scale-binary, categorical or continuous. It can be easily fitted using common statistical packages. With one additional step of simple calculations of the model parameters, one readily obtains relative and absolute risk estimates as well as their confidence intervals. Monte-Carlo simulations show that the proposed method can produce unbiased estimates and adequate-coverage confidence intervals, for ORs, RRs and absolute risks. The case-base study with all its desirable properties and its methods of analysis fully developed in this paper may become a mainstay in epidemiology.

  11. Estimating Risk and Return Combinations for New Derivatives Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Bona

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Active funds are typically managed by placing bets against a well defined passive bench-mark. In this context, when examining the launching of a new actively managed fund with a target expected excess rate of return relative to the benchmark equal to µ, asset managers face the problem of estimating the risk σ of excess rates of return. This estimate is critical to examine whether the product is commercially feasible and to define risk limits for the manager, if the product is launched. This paper proceeds to examine the solution to this problem assuming an especial form of the binomial model, in the context of the market timing structure advanced by Merton (1981. The paper shows that two variables are relevant for the solution of the proposed problem. The first, and the most relevant, is the skill level of the manager. A ore skilled manager is able to operate a less risky product with the same target excess rate of return µ. The second relevant variable is the trade-off between risk and return determined by existing investment opportunities in the market. The smaller the increases in risk exposure required to obtain an increase in excess returns, the less risky the product will be After solving the problem under specific assumptions, the paper proceeds to test empirically their validity using a representative sample of hedge funds in the Brazilian market. The empirical results strongly support the validity of the required assumptions.

  12. Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänninen, Otto; Brüske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

    2010-01-01

    Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles (office environments and by consumers in their homes. The current work combines existing epidemiological and toxicological evidence on particle-related health effects, measuring doses as mass, particle number and surface area, to estimate and compare the potential risks in occupational and consumer exposure scenarios related to the use of laser printers. The daily uptake of laser printer particles was estimated based on measured particle size distributions and lung deposition modelling. The obtained daily uptakes (particle mass 0.15-0.44 μg d-1; particle number 1.1-3.1 × 109 d-1) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 × 10-6, but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

  13. Future flood risk estimates along the river Rhine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. te Linde

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In Europe, water management is moving from flood defence to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. It is expected that climate change and socio-economic development will lead to an increase in flood risk in the Rhine basin. To optimize spatial planning and flood management measures, studies are needed that quantify future flood risks and estimate their uncertainties. In this paper, we estimated the current and future fluvial flood risk in 2030 for the entire Rhine basin in a scenario study. The change in value at risk is based on two land-use projections derived from a land-use model representing two different socio-economic scenarios. Potential damage was calculated by a damage model, and changes in flood probabilities were derived from two climate scenarios and hydrological modeling. We aggregated the results into seven sections along the Rhine. It was found that the annual expected damage in the Rhine basin may increase by between 54% and 230%, of which the major part (~ three-quarters can be accounted for by climate change. The highest current potential damage can be found in the Netherlands (110 billion €, compared with the second (80 billion € and third (62 billion € highest values in two areas in Germany. Results further show that the area with the highest fluvial flood risk is located in the Lower Rhine in Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany, and not in the Netherlands, as is often perceived. This is mainly due to the higher flood protection standards in the Netherlands as compared to Germany.

  14. Climate change trade measures : estimating industry effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-06-01

    Estimating the potential effects of domestic emissions pricing for industries in the United States is complex. If the United States were to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, production costs could rise for certain industries and could cause output, ...

  15. Impact of UKPDS risk estimation added to a first subjective risk estimation on management of coronary disease risk in type 2 diabetes - An observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wind, Anne E.; Gorter, Kees J.; Van Den Donk, Maureen; Rutten, Guy E H M

    2016-01-01

    Aims To investigate the impact of the UKPDS risk engine on management of CHD risk in T2DM patients. Methods Observational study among 139 GPS. Data from 933 consecutive patients treated with a maximum of two oral glucose lowering drugs, collected at baseline and after twelve months. GPS estimated

  16. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  17. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

  18. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  19. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  20. Interval estimation of the risk difference in non-compliance randomized trials with repeated binary measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lui, Kung-Jong

    2007-07-20

    In a randomized clinical trial (RCT), we often encounter non-compliance with the treatment protocol for a subset of patients. The intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis is probably the most commonly used method in a RCT with non-compliance. However, the ITT analysis estimates 'the programmatic effectiveness' rather than 'the biological efficacy'. In this paper, we focus attention on the latter index and consider use of the risk difference (RD) to measure the effect of a treatment. Based on a simple additive risk model proposed elsewhere, we develop four asymptotic interval estimators of the RD for repeated binary measurements in a RCT with non-compliance. We apply Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate and compare the finite-sample performance of these interval estimators in a variety of situations. We find that all interval estimators considered here can perform well with respect to the coverage probability. We further find that the interval estimator using a tanh(-1)(x) transformation is probably more precise than the others, while the interval estimator derived from a randomization-based approach may cause a slight loss of precision. When the number of patients per treatment is large and the probability of compliance to an assigned treatment is high, we find that all interval estimators discussed here are essentially equivalent. Finally, we illustrate use of these interval estimators with data simulated from a trial of using macrophage colony-stimulating factor to reduce febrile neutropenia incidence in acute myeloid leukaemia patients. (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  2. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Holst, Klaus K.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.

    2014-01-01

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experienced...... over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer...... events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component...

  3. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  4. Parenchymal Texture Analysis in Digital Breast Tomosynthesis for Breast Cancer Risk Estimation: A Preliminary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontos, Despina; Bakic, Predrag R.; Carton, Ann-Katherine; Troxel, Andrea B.; Conant, Emily F.; Maidment, Andrew D.A.

    2009-01-01

    Rationale and Objectives Studies have demonstrated a relationship between mammographic parenchymal texture and breast cancer risk. Although promising, texture analysis in mammograms is limited by tissue superimposition. Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a novel tomographic x-ray breast imaging modality that alleviates the effect of tissue superimposition, offering superior parenchymal texture visualization compared to mammography. Our study investigates the potential advantages of DBT parenchymal texture analysis for breast cancer risk estimation. Materials and Methods DBT and digital mammography (DM) images of 39 women were analyzed. Texture features, shown in studies with mammograms to correlate with cancer risk, were computed from the retroareolar breast region. We compared the relative performance of DBT and DM texture features in correlating with two measures of breast cancer risk: (i) the Gail and Claus risk estimates, and (ii) mammographic breast density. Linear regression was performed to model the association between texture features and increasing levels of risk. Results No significant correlation was detected between parenchymal texture and the Gail and Claus risk estimates. Significant correlations were observed between texture features and breast density. Overall, the DBT texture features demonstrated stronger correlations with breast percent density (PD) than DM (p ≤0.05). When dividing our study population in groups of increasing breast PD, the DBT texture features appeared to be more discriminative, having regression lines with overall lower p-values, steeper slopes, and higher R2 estimates. Conclusion Although preliminary, our results suggest that DBT parenchymal texture analysis could provide more accurate characterization of breast density patterns, which could ultimately improve breast cancer risk estimation. PMID:19201357

  5. Estimates of radiation doses and cancer risk from food intake in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Eun Kyeong; Lee, Won Jin [Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Ha, Wi Ho; Seo, Song Won; Jin, Young Woo [Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jeong, Kyu Hwan [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Hae Jung; Kim, Hyoung Soo; Hwang, Myung Sil [Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Hoon [Wonkwang University, Iksan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a widespread public concern for radiation exposure through the contamination of domestic or imported food has continued worldwide. Because the internal exposure from contaminated food is an important consideration for human health effect, some studies for estimating radiation doses and cancer risk from the Fukushima nuclear accident have been conducted in several countries (1). The aims of the study is to estimate internal radiation dose and lifetime risks of cancer from food ingestion in Korean population. Our findings suggest no discernible increase n radiation doses or excess fatal cancer risk from food ingestion at this stage in Korea, and provide scientific evidence of the risk communication with general public associated with low-dose radiation exposure.

  6. Estimating ToE Risk Level using CVSS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houmb, S.H.; Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.

    2009-01-01

    Security management is about calculated risk and requires continuous evaluation to ensure cost, time and resource effectiveness. Parts of which is to make future-oriented, cost-benefit investments in security. Security investments must adhere to healthy business principles where both security and

  7. Quantum metrology and estimation of Unruh effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jieci; Tian, Zehua; Jing, Jiliang; Fan, Heng

    2014-11-26

    We study the quantum metrology for a pair of entangled Unruh-Dewitt detectors when one of them is accelerated and coupled to a massless scalar field. Comparing with previous schemes, our model requires only local interaction and avoids the use of cavities in the probe state preparation process. We show that the probe state preparation and the interaction between the accelerated detector and the external field have significant effects on the value of quantum Fisher information, correspondingly pose variable ultimate limit of precision in the estimation of Unruh effect. We find that the precision of the estimation can be improved by a larger effective coupling strength and a longer interaction time. Alternatively, the energy gap of the detector has a range that can provide us a better precision. Thus we may adjust those parameters and attain a higher precision in the estimation. We also find that an extremely high acceleration is not required in the quantum metrology process.

  8. Time-to-Compromise Model for Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2005-09-01

    We propose a new model for estimating the time to compromise a system component that is visible to an attacker. The model provides an estimate of the expected value of the time-to-compromise as a function of known and visible vulnerabilities, and attacker skill level. The time-to-compromise random process model is a composite of three subprocesses associated with attacker actions aimed at the exploitation of vulnerabilities. In a case study, the model was used to aid in a risk reduction estimate between a baseline Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the baseline system enhanced through a specific set of control system security remedial actions. For our case study, the total number of system vulnerabilities was reduced by 86% but the dominant attack path was through a component where the number of vulnerabilities was reduced by only 42% and the time-to-compromise of that component was increased by only 13% to 30% depending on attacker skill level.

  9. Subjective Versus Objective Estimated Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Adherence to Physical Activity in African American Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Nadia; Miller, Arlene; Wilbur, JoEllen; Fogg, Louis

    2017-07-18

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death for African American (AA) women in the United States. Despite high prevalence of CVD risk factors, AA women perceive their CVD risk as low. Our objectives were to (1) identify relationships between subjective (self-reported perceived) CVD risk and objective CVD risk estimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk estimator, (2) identify demographic and psychosocial factors associated with subjective perceived risk and discrepancy with objective estimated CVD risk, and (3) determine whether subjective perceived CVD risk was associated with physical activity (PA) adherence. This was a secondary data analysis of data collected from a 12-month lifestyle PA intervention conducted with 281 AA women. Subjective perceived CVD risk was measured by 1 question; objective estimated CVD risk was calculated using the ASCVD score. Women were categorized by congruence or discrepancy between subjective perceived and objective estimated CVD risk. Subjective perceived CVD risk and objective ASCVD risk scores were both low. Approximately 20% subjectively perceived their risk as lower than objective ASCVD scores. Atherosclerotic CVD risk discrepancy groups differed by depressed mood symptoms. Participants reported many perceived barriers to PA. Perceived CVD risk was not related to PA adherence. The significance of associated CVD risk factors may be underestimated by AA women, leading to discrepancy between subjective and objective risk estimates. Research is needed to clarify relationships among perceived risk, estimated risk using risk calculators such as ASCVD, and health behavior.

  10. Estimating haplotype effects for survival data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, Torben; Silver, J

    2010-01-01

    Genetic association studies often investigate the effect of haplotypes on an outcome of interest. Haplotypes are not observed directly, and this complicates the inclusion of such effects in survival models. We describe a new estimating equations approach for Cox's regression model to assess haplo...... in this article to investigate possible haplotype effects of the PAF-receptor on cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease, and compare our results to those based on the EM algorithm....

  11. Dust concentrations and respiratory risks in coalminers: key risk estimates from the British Pneumoconiosis Field Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soutar, C.A.; Hurley, J.F.; Miller, B.G.; Cowie, H.A.; Buchanan, D. [Inst. of Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh (United Kingdom)

    2004-06-01

    To help inform the setting of dust control standards in coal mines, this brief review summarises the most recent and reliable exposure-response relations, for damaging respiratory effects, derived from the Pneumoconiosis Field Research (PFR). Collecting data over 38 years in the British coal industry, this was a programme of prospective research on the respiratory health of coal miners, characterised by regular health surveys and detailed measurements of dust and silica concentrations in the workplace. Exposure-response relations are presented for coal workers' simple pneumoconiosis category II, progressive massive fibrosis, defined deficits of lung function (FEV1), and category II silicosis. This simplified overview provides a guide to the most recent and most reliable estimates from the PFR of dust-related risks of substantial pulmonary disease, and to the magnitude of the effects. Control of dust sufficient to prevent category II simple pneumoconiosis should prevent most cases of progressive massive fibrosis and most dust related large lung function deficits. Where the dust contains high proportions of silica, control to low levels is essential, and even quite brief excursions of silica to high levels must be avoided.

  12. Parametric estimation of P(X > Y) for normal distributions in the context of probabilistic environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Bekker, Andriëtte A; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the risk, P(X > Y), in probabilistic environmental risk assessment of nanoparticles is a problem when confronted by potentially small risks and small sample sizes of the exposure concentration X and/or the effect concentration Y. This is illustrated in the motivating case study of aquatic risk assessment of nano-Ag. A non-parametric estimator based on data alone is not sufficient as it is limited by sample size. In this paper, we investigate the maximum gain possible when making strong parametric assumptions as opposed to making no parametric assumptions at all. We compare maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators with the non-parametric estimator and study the influence of sample size and risk on the (interval) estimators via simulation. We found that the parametric estimators enable us to estimate and bound the risk for smaller sample sizes and small risks. Also, the Bayesian estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of coverage and interval lengths and is, therefore, preferred in our motivating case study.

  13. Parametric estimation of P(X > Y for normal distributions in the context of probabilistic environmental risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rianne Jacobs

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the risk, P(X > Y, in probabilistic environmental risk assessment of nanoparticles is a problem when confronted by potentially small risks and small sample sizes of the exposure concentration X and/or the effect concentration Y. This is illustrated in the motivating case study of aquatic risk assessment of nano-Ag. A non-parametric estimator based on data alone is not sufficient as it is limited by sample size. In this paper, we investigate the maximum gain possible when making strong parametric assumptions as opposed to making no parametric assumptions at all. We compare maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators with the non-parametric estimator and study the influence of sample size and risk on the (interval estimators via simulation. We found that the parametric estimators enable us to estimate and bound the risk for smaller sample sizes and small risks. Also, the Bayesian estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of coverage and interval lengths and is, therefore, preferred in our motivating case study.

  14. Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Hye Jeong [Dept. of Particle Accelerator and Medical Physics, Dong-A University, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Yang, Won Seok [Dept. of Radiology, Dong-A University Medical center, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-04-15

    Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.

  15. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: estimating disease risk in Australian blood donors travelling overseas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coghlan, A; Hoad, V C; Seed, C R; Flower, R Lp; Harley, R J; Herbert, D; Faddy, H M

    2018-01-01

    International travel assists spread of infectious pathogens. Australians regularly travel to South-eastern Asia and the isles of the South Pacific, where they may become infected with infectious agents, such as dengue (DENV), chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses that pose a potential risk to transfusion safety. In Australia, donors are temporarily restricted from donating for fresh component manufacture following travel to many countries, including those in this study. We aimed to estimate the unmitigated transfusion-transmission (TT) risk from donors travelling internationally to areas affected by emerging infectious diseases. We used the European Up-Front Risk Assessment Tool, with travel and notification data, to estimate the TT risk from donors travelling to areas affected by disease outbreaks: Fiji (DENV), Bali (DENV), Phuket (DENV), Indonesia (CHIKV) and French Polynesia (ZIKV). We predict minimal risk from travel, with the annual unmitigated risk of an infected component being released varying from 1 in 1·43 million to risk of severe consequences ranging from 1 in 130 million to infectious disease outbreak areas to source plasma collection provides a simple and effective risk management approach. © 2017 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  16. [Current problems of estimation of genetic risk of human exposure to radiation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevchenko, V A

    2000-01-01

    The methodology of assessing the genetic risk of radiation exposure is based on the concept of "hitting the target" in development of which N.V. Timofeeff-Ressovsky has played and important role. To predict genetic risk posed by irradiation, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) has worked out direct and indirect methods of assessment, extrapolational, integral and populational criteria of risk analysis that together permit calculating the risk from human exposure on the basis of data obtained for mice. Laboratory mice are the main objects in studying radiation mutagenesis due to the fact that the data on the frequency of radiation-induced human mutations are rather scarce. The method of doubling dose based on the determination of a dose doubling the level of natural mutational process in humans is the main one used to predict the genetic risk. The evolution of views about the genetics risk of human exposure to radiation for last 40 years is considered. Till 1972 the main model for assessing the genetic risk was the "human/mouse" model (the use of data on the spontaneous human variability and data on the frequency of induced mutations in mice). In the period form 1972 till 1994 the "mouse/mouse" model was intensively elaborated in many laboratories. This model was also used in this period by UNSCEAR experts to analyze the genetic risk from human irradiation. Recent achievements associated with the study of the molecular nature of many hereditary human diseases as well as the criticism of number fundamental principles of the "mouse/mouse" model for estimating the genetic risk on a new basis. The estimates of risk for the different classes of genetic diseases have been obtained using the doubling-dose method. The estimate of doubling dose used in the calculations is 1 Gy for low dose/chronic low-LET radiation conditions.

  17. Moving towards a new paradigm for global flood risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troy, Tara J.; Devineni, Naresh; Lima, Carlos; Lall, Upmanu

    2013-04-01

    model is implemented at a finer resolution (flood conditions and estimate inundation. This approach allows for efficient computational simulation of the hydrology when not under potential for flooding with high-resolution flood wave modeling when there is flooding potential. We demonstrate the results of this flood risk estimation system for the Ohio River basin in the United States, a large river basin that is historically prone to flooding, with the intention of using it to do global flood risk assessment.

  18. Effective tool wear estimation through multisensory information ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effective tool wear estimation through multisensory information fusion using Artificial Neural Network. ... On-line tool wear monitoring plays a significant role in industrial automation for higher productivity and product quality. In addition, an intelligent system is required to make a timely decision for tool change in machining ...

  19. Estimated risk of radiation-induced cancer from paediatric chest CT: two-year cohort study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niemann, Tilo [Cantonal Hospital Baden, Department of Radiology, Baden (Switzerland); University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Colas, Lucie; Santangelo, Teresa; Faivre, Jean Baptiste; Remy, Jacques; Remy-Jardin, Martine [University Lille Nord de France, Department of Thoracic Imaging, Hospital Calmette, Lille (France); Roser, Hans W.; Bremerich, Jens [University of Basel Hospital, Clinic of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Medical Physics, Basel (Switzerland)

    2015-03-01

    The increasing absolute number of paediatric CT scans raises concern about the safety and efficacy and the effects of consecutive diagnostic ionising radiation. To demonstrate a method to evaluate the lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence/mortality due to a single low-dose helical chest CT in a two-year patient cohort. A two-year cohort of 522 paediatric helical chest CT scans acquired using a dedicated low-dose protocol were analysed retrospectively. Patient-specific estimations of radiation doses were modelled using three different mathematical phantoms. Per-organ attributable cancer risk was then estimated using epidemiological models. Additional comparison was provided for naturally occurring risks. Total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence remains low for all age and sex categories, being highest in female neonates (0.34%). Summation of all cancer sites analysed raised the relative lifetime attributable risk of organ cancer incidence up to 3.6% in female neonates and 2.1% in male neonates. Using dedicated scan protocols, total lifetime attributable risk of cancer incidence and mortality for chest CT is estimated low for paediatric chest CT, being highest for female neonates. (orig.)

  20. Declining bioavailability and inappropriate estimation of risk of persistent compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelsey, J.W.; Alexander, M. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

    1997-03-01

    Earthworms (Eisenia foetida) assimilated decreasing amounts of atrazine, phenanthrene, and naphthalene that had been incubated for increasing periods of time in sterile soil. The amount of atrazine and phenanthrene removed from soil by mild extractants also decreased with time. The declines in bioavailability of the three compounds to earthworms and of naphthalene to bacteria were not reflected by analysis involving vigorous methods of solvent extraction; similar results for bioavailability of phenanthrene and 4-nitrophenol to bacteria were obtained in a previous study conducted at this laboratory. The authors suggest that regulations based on vigorous extractions for the analyses of persistent organic pollutants in soil do not appropriately estimate exposure or risk to susceptible populations.

  1. Work-site musculoskeletal pain risk estimates by trained observers--a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coenen, Pieter; Kingma, Idsart; Boot, Cécile R L; Douwes, Marjolein; Bongers, Paulien M; van Dieën, Jaap H

    2012-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal pain (MSP) risk assessments by trained observers are often used in ergonomic practice; however, the validity may be questionable. We investigated the predictive value of work-site MSP risk estimates in a prospective cohort study of 1745 workers. Trained observers estimated the risk of MSP (neck, shoulder or low-back pain) using a three-point scale (high, moderate and low risk) after observing a video of randomly selected workers representing a task group. Associations of the estimated risk of pain and reported pain during a three-year follow-up were assessed using logistic regression. Estimated risk of neck and shoulder pain did (odds ratio, OR: 1.45 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.01-2.08); 1.64 (95% CI: 1.05-2.55)), however, estimated risk of low-back pain did not significantly predict pain (OR: 1.27 (95% CI: 0.91-1.79)). The results show that observers were able to estimate the risk of shoulder and neck pain, whereas they found it difficult to estimate the risk of low-back pain. Practitioner Summary: Work-related musculoskeletal pain risk assessments by observers are often used in ergonomic practice. We showed that observers were able to estimate shoulder and neck pain risk, but had difficulties to estimate the risk of low-back pain. Therefore, observers' risk estimates might provide a useful method for musculoskeletal pain risk assessments.

  2. Estimation of aggregate population cancer risk from dichloromethane for Japanese using atmospheric dispersion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Kazuya; Higashino, Haruyuki; Yoshikado, Hiroshi; Nakanishi, Junko

    2006-01-01

    The aggregate population cancer risk from dichloromethane exposure for each prefecture and for all of Japan was estimated using an atmospheric dispersion model and by considering the population within each calculation mesh (about 5 x 5 km). Indoor dichloromethane exposure was also taken into consideration. The number of lifetime dichloromethane-exposure-induced cancer cases for all of Japan was estimated to be only 1.3 (of 125 million people) using a most recently reported unit risk value. It was also found that the average ratio of the contribution to the aggregate population cancer risk attributable to outdoor emission sources (industrial factories) to the total emission sources was no more than 40% for all of Japan. From these results, it is believed that further reductions in dichloromethane emissions from industrial factories on a prefectural or a nationwide scale would not be effective in reducing cancer risk. It was also revealed that the average ambient concentration of dichloromethane measured at monitoring stations for hazardous air pollutants in each prefecture is a good measure of the average ambient dichloromethane concentration to which people in that prefecture are exposed. Therefore, it was suggested that the aggregate population cancer risk from dichloromethane exposure can be effectively estimated for entire Japan by simply using the average ambient concentration measured at monitoring stations in all of Japan taking into consideration indoor dichloromethane exposure.

  3. Family-Oriented Cardiac Risk Estimator: A Java Web-Based Applet

    OpenAIRE

    Crouch, Michael A.; Jadhav, Ashwin

    2003-01-01

    We developed a Java applet that calculates four different estimates of a person’s 10-year risk for heart attack: (1) Estimate based on Framingham equation (2) Framingham equation estimate modified by C-reactive protein (CRP) level (3) Framingham estimate modified by family history of heart disease in parents or siblings (4) Framingham estimate modified by both CRP and family heart disease history This web-based, family-oriented cardiac risk estimator uniquely considers family history and CRP ...

  4. Estimating the effects of wages on obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, DaeHwan; Leigh, John Paul

    2010-05-01

    To estimate the effects of wages on obesity and body mass. Data on household heads, aged 20 to 65 years, with full-time jobs, were drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for 2003 to 2007. The Panel Study of Income Dynamics is a nationally representative sample. Instrumental variables (IV) for wages were created using knowledge of computer software and state legal minimum wages. Least squares (linear regression) with corrected standard errors were used to estimate the equations. Statistical tests revealed both instruments were strong and tests for over-identifying restrictions were favorable. Wages were found to be predictive (P low wages increase obesity prevalence and body mass.

  5. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  6. Sibling method increases risk assessment estimates for type 1 diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hoang V Lam

    Full Text Available We presented a risk assessment model to distinguish between type 1 diabetes (T1D affected and unaffected siblings using only three single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP genotypes. In addition we calculated the heritability from genome-wide identity-by-descent (IBD sharing between full siblings. We analyzed 1,253 pairs of affected individuals and their unaffected siblings (750 pairs from a discovery set and 503 pairs from a validation set from the T1D Genetics Consortium (T1DGC, applying a logistic regression to analyze the area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve (AUC. To calculate the heritability of T1D we used the Haseman-Elston regression analysis of the squared difference between the phenotypes of the pairs of siblings on the estimate of their genome-wide IBD proportion. The model with only 3 SNPs achieving an AUC of 0.75 in both datasets outperformed the model using the presence of the high-risk DR3/4 HLA genotype, namely AUC of 0.60. The heritability on the liability scale of T1D was approximately from 0.53 to 0.92, close to the results obtained from twin studies, ranging from 0.4 to 0.88.

  7. Estimating haplotype relative risks on human survival in population-based association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Qihua; Christiansen, Lene; Bathum, Lise; Zhao, Jing Hua; Yashin, Anatoli I; Vaupel, James W; Christensen, Kaare; Kruse, Torben A

    2005-01-01

    Association-based linkage disequilibrium (LD) mapping is an increasingly important tool for localizing genes that show potential influence on human aging and longevity. As haplotypes contain more LD information than single markers, a haplotype-based LD approach can have increased power in detecting associations as well as increased robustness in statistical testing. In this paper, we develop a new statistical model to estimate haplotype relative risks (HRRs) on human survival using unphased multilocus genotype data from unrelated individuals in cross-sectional studies. Based on the proportional hazard assumption, the model can estimate haplotype risk and frequency parameters, incorporate observed covariates, assess interactions between haplotypes and the covariates, and investigate the modes of gene function. By introducing population survival information available from population statistics, we are able to develop a procedure that carries out the parameter estimation using a nonparametric baseline hazard function and estimates sex-specific HRRs to infer gene-sex interaction. We also evaluate the haplotype effects on human survival while taking into account individual heterogeneity in the unobserved genetic and nongenetic factors or frailty by introducing the gamma-distributed frailty into the survival function. After model validation by computer simulation, we apply our method to an empirical data set to measure haplotype effects on human survival and to estimate haplotype frequencies at birth and over the observed ages. Results from both simulation and model application indicate that our survival analysis model is an efficient method for inferring haplotype effects on human survival in population-based association studies.

  8. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools. PMID:28257103

  9. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trine Madsen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  10. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide-An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-03-02

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  11. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-06-01

    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  12. Longtime napping is associated with cardiovascular risk estimation according to Framingham risk score in postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Feng; Sun, Kan; Lin, Diaozhu; Qi, Yiqin; Li, Yan; Yan, Li; Ren, Meng

    2016-09-01

    Menopause can affect the physiological timing system, which could result in circadian rhythm changes and development of napping habits. Whether longtime napping in postmenopausal women is associated with cardiovascular disease is, however, still debated. The present study aims to investigate this association. We conducted a population-based study in 4,616 postmenopausal Chinese women. Information on sleep duration was self-reported. The Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score was calculated and used to identify participants at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors in postmenopausal women, such as age, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, fasting glucose, postload glucose, and hemoglobin A1C (all P for trend napping hours, and was 3.7%, 4.3%, and 6.9% in the no daytime napping group, the 0.1 to 1 hour group, and the more than 1 hour group, respectively (P for trend = 0.005). Compared with the no daytime napping group, postmenopausal women with daytime napping more than 1 hour had higher risk of CHD in both univariate (odds ratio 1.94, 95% CI, 1.29-2.95) and multivariate (odds ratio 1.61, 95% CI, 1.03-2.52) logistic regression analyses. No statistically significant association was detected between night sleeping hours and high risk of CHD in postmenopausal participants. Daytime napping is positively associated with estimated 10-year CHD risk in postmenopausal Chinese women.

  13. Radiobiological risk estimates of adverse events and secondary cancer for proton and photon radiation therapy of pediatric medulloblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brodin, N. Patrik (Radiation Medicine Research Center, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark); Niels Bohr Inst., Faculty of Sciences, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark)), e-mail: brodin.patrik@gmail.com; Munck af Rosenschoeld, Per; Aznar, Marianne C.; Vogelius, Ivan R. (Radiation Medicine Research Center, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark)); Kiil-Berthelsen, Anne (Radiation Medicine Research Center, Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark); Dept. of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine, Centre of Diagnostic Investigations, Rigshospitalet, Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark)); Nilsson, Per; Bjoerk-Eriksson, Thomas (Dept. of Oncology, Skaane Univ. Hospital and Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden)); Lannering, Birgitta (Dept. of Paediatric Oncology, The Queen Silvia Children' s Hospital, Gothenburg (Sweden))

    2011-08-15

    Introduction. The aim of this model study was to estimate and compare the risk of radiation-induced adverse late effects in pediatric patients with medulloblastoma (MB) treated with either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT), inversely-optimized arc therapy (RapidArc (RA)) or spot-scanned intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT). The aim was also to find dose-volume toxicity parameters relevant to children undergoing RT to be used in the inverse planning of RA and IMPT, and to use in the risk estimations. Material and methods. Treatment plans were created for all three techniques on 10 pediatric patients that have been treated with craniospinal irradiation (CSI) at our institution in 2007-2009. Plans were generated for two prescription CSI doses, 23.4 Gy and 36 Gy. Risk estimates were based on childhood cancer survivor data when available and secondary cancer (SC) risks were estimated as a function of age at exposure and attained age according to the organ-equivalent dose (OED) concept. Results. Estimates of SC risk was higher for the RA plans and differentiable from the estimates for 3D CRT at attained ages above 40 years. The risk of developing heart failure, hearing loss, hypothyroidism and xerostomia was highest for the 3D CRT plans. The risks of all adverse effects were estimated as lowest for the IMPT plans, even when including secondary neutron (SN) irradiation with high values of the neutron radiation weighting factors (WR{sub neutron}). Conclusions. When comparing RA and 3D CRT treatment for pediatric MB it is a matter of comparing higher SC risk against higher risks of non-cancer adverse events. Considering time until onset of the different complications is necessary to fully assess patient benefit in such a comparison. The IMPT plans, including SN dose contribution, compared favorably to the photon techniques in terms of all radiobiological risk estimates

  14. Joint nonparametric correction estimator for excess relative risk regression in survival analysis with exposure measurement error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ching-Yun; Cullings, Harry; Song, Xiao; Kopecky, Kenneth J

    2017-11-01

    Observational epidemiological studies often confront the problem of estimating exposure-disease relationships when the exposure is not measured exactly. In the paper, we investigate exposure measurement error in excess relative risk regression, which is a widely used model in radiation exposure effect research. In the study cohort, a surrogate variable is available for the true unobserved exposure variable. The surrogate variable satisfies a generalized version of the classical additive measurement error model, but it may or may not have repeated measurements. In addition, an instrumental variable is available for individuals in a subset of the whole cohort. We develop a nonparametric correction (NPC) estimator using data from the subcohort, and further propose a joint nonparametric correction (JNPC) estimator using all observed data to adjust for exposure measurement error. An optimal linear combination estimator of JNPC and NPC is further developed. The proposed estimators are nonparametric, which are consistent without imposing a covariate or error distribution, and are robust to heteroscedastic errors. Finite sample performance is examined via a simulation study. We apply the developed methods to data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, in which chromosome aberration is used to adjust for the effects of radiation dose measurement error on the estimation of radiation dose responses.

  15. [Estimate of the cardiovascular disease burden attributable to modifiable risk factors in Argentina].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, Adolfo; Colantonio, Lisandro; Bardach, Ariel; Caporale, Joaquín; García Martí, Sebastián; Kopitowski, Karin; Alcaraz, Andrea; Gibbons, Luz; Augustovski, Federico; Pichón-Rivière, Andrés

    2010-04-01

    Estimate the burden of disease, the proportion attributable to the principal modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, and the direct medical cost of hospitalization associated with coronary heart disease and stroke in Argentina. An analitical model was prepared using Argentina's 2005 mortality data and the prevalence of the principal cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, overweight, obesity, hyperglycemia, current and past smoking, sedentary lifestyle, and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables). The burden of disease-years of potential life lost (YPLL) and years of healthy life lost (YHLL)- and hospitalization costs for the cardiovascular diseases analyzed were estimated. In 2005 over 600 000 YHL were lost in Argentina and the number of YPLL due to heart disease and stroke was calculated at 400 000; 71.1% of the YHLL, 73.9% of the YPLL, and 76.0% of the associated costs were attributable to modifiable risk factors. Hypertension was the risk factor with the greatest impact in both men and in women, responsible for 37.3% of the total cost, 37.5% of the YPLL, and 36.6% of the YHLL. Most of the burden of disease from cardiovascular disease in Argentina is associated with modifiable, and therefore preventable, risk factors and could be reduced through population-based and clinical interventions that employ a risk approach; such interventions have already proven to be cost effective, accessible, and feasible in countries like Argentina.

  16. Problems and solutions in the estimation of genetic risks from radiation and chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Russell, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    Extensive investigations with mice on the effects of various physical and biological factors, such as dose rate, sex and cell stage, on radiation-induced mutation have provided an evaluation of the genetics hazards of radiation in man. The mutational results obtained in both sexes with progressive lowering of the radiation dose rate have permitted estimation of the mutation frequency expected under the low-level radiation conditions of most human exposure. Supplementing the studies on mutation frequency are investigations on the phenotypic effects of mutations in mice, particularly anatomical disorders of the skeleton, which allow an estimation of the degree of human handicap associated with the occurrence of parallel defects in man. Estimation of the genetic risk from chemical mutagens is much more difficult, and the research is much less advanced. Results on transmitted mutations in mice indicate a poor correlation with mutation induction in non-mammalian organisms.

  17. Issues in using epidemiologic data to estimate cancer risks from environmental chemical exposures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picciotto, I.-H.; Neutra, R.; Alexeeff, G.; Lipsett, M.; Holtzman, D. (California Department of Health Services, Berkeley, CA (USA))

    Quantitative assessment of cancer is an important health policy application of environmental epidemiology. This paper addresses how epidemiology can reduce uncertainty in estimates of cancer risk from environmental exposures. To extrapolate to low levels, epidemiologic studies need well-qualified exposure data, adequate control of confounding, and a positive dose-response trend. In cases such as cadmium and arsenic, a critical issue is the shape of the dose-response curve. The data on arsenic suggest that assumption of linearity may under-estimate risk. Other uncertainties arise in extrapolating from adult males in occupational settings to a heterogeneous population exposed environmentally. Epidemiologic studies with less exposure data or negative findings may be used for a risk assessment based on animal data (e.g., ethylene dibromide, ethylene oxide, and methylene chloride). Then the hypothesized effect level for humans depends on the animal-based potency and estimated human exposures. Therefore, statistical power hinges on study size and on exposure levels (ethylene oxide, methylene chloride, and saccharin). Comparisons of human epidemiologic data and animal bioassays may permit the rejection of models and a narrowing of the range of plausible risks (e.g., ethylene dibromide, cadmium), or suggest that the animal-based assessment is not contradicted by the epidemiologic data (e.g., ethylene oxide, acrylonitrile, methylene chloride).

  18. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  19. The number of primary events per variable affects estimation of the subdistribution hazard competing risks model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Allignol, Arthur; Fine, Jason P

    2017-03-01

    To examine the effect of the number of events per variable (EPV) on the accuracy of estimated regression coefficients, standard errors, empirical coverage rates of estimated confidence intervals, and empirical estimates of statistical power when using the Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard regression model to assess the effect of covariates on the incidence of events that occur over time in the presence of competing risks. Monte Carlo simulations were used. We considered two different definitions of the number of EPV. One included events of any type that occurred (both primary events and competing events), whereas the other included only the number of primary events that occurred. The definition of EPV that included only the number of primary events was preferable to the alternative definition, as the number of competing events had minimal impact on estimation. In general, 40-50 EPV were necessary to ensure accurate estimation of regression coefficients and associated quantities. However, if all of the covariates are continuous or are binary with moderate prevalence, then 10 EPV are sufficient to ensure accurate estimation. Analysts must base the number of EPV on the number of primary events that occurred. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Estimating risks to aquatic life using quantile regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Travis S.; Clements, William H.; Cade, Brian S.

    2012-01-01

    One of the primary goals of biological assessment is to assess whether contaminants or other stressors limit the ecological potential of running waters. It is important to interpret responses to contaminants relative to other environmental factors, but necessity or convenience limit quantification of all factors that influence ecological potential. In these situations, the concept of limiting factors is useful for data interpretation. We used quantile regression to measure risks to aquatic life exposed to metals by including all regression quantiles (τ  =  0.05–0.95, by increments of 0.05), not just the upper limit of density (e.g., 90th quantile). We measured population densities (individuals/0.1 m2) of 2 mayflies (Rhithrogena spp., Drunella spp.) and a caddisfly (Arctopsyche grandis), aqueous metal mixtures (Cd, Cu, Zn), and other limiting factors (basin area, site elevation, discharge, temperature) at 125 streams in Colorado. We used a model selection procedure to test which factor was most limiting to density. Arctopsyche grandis was limited by other factors, whereas metals limited most quantiles of density for the 2 mayflies. Metals reduced mayfly densities most at sites where other factors were not limiting. Where other factors were limiting, low mayfly densities were observed despite metal concentrations. Metals affected mayfly densities most at quantiles above the mean and not just at the upper limit of density. Risk models developed from quantile regression showed that mayfly densities observed at background metal concentrations are improbable when metal mixtures are at US Environmental Protection Agency criterion continuous concentrations. We conclude that metals limit potential density, not realized average density. The most obvious effects on mayfly populations were at upper quantiles and not mean density. Therefore, we suggest that policy developed from mean-based measures of effects may not be as useful as policy based on the concept of

  1. A decision model to estimate a risk threshold for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in hospitalized medical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, P; Martinez, K A; Pappas, M A; Rothberg, M B

    2017-06-01

    Essentials Low risk patients don't require venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis; low risk is unquantified. We used a Markov model to estimate the risk threshold for VTE prophylaxis in medical inpatients. Prophylaxis was cost-effective for an average medical patient with a VTE risk of ≥ 1.0%. VTE prophylaxis can be personalized based on patient risk and age/life expectancy. Background Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common preventable condition in medical inpatients. Thromboprophylaxis is recommended for inpatients who are not at low risk of VTE, but no specific risk threshold for prophylaxis has been defined. Objective To determine a threshold for prophylaxis based on risk of VTE. Patients/Methods We constructed a decision model with a decision-tree following patients for 3 months after hospitalization, and a lifetime Markov model with 3-month cycles. The model tracked symptomatic deep vein thromboses and pulmonary emboli, bleeding events and heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Long-term complications included recurrent VTE, post-thrombotic syndrome and pulmonary hypertension. For the base case, we considered medical inpatients aged 66 years, having a life expectancy of 13.5 years, VTE risk of 1.4% and bleeding risk of 2.7%. Patients received enoxaparin 40 mg day-1 for prophylaxis. Results Assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100 000/ quality-adjusted life year (QALY), prophylaxis was indicated for an average medical inpatient with a VTE risk of ≥ 1.0% up to 3 months after hospitalization. For the average patient, prophylaxis was not indicated when the bleeding risk was > 8.1%, the patient's age was > 73.4 years or the cost of enoxaparin exceeded $60/dose. If VTE risk was 19%, the risks of prophylaxis outweighed benefits. The prophylaxis threshold was relatively insensitive to low-molecular-weight heparin cost and bleeding risk, but very sensitive to patient age and life expectancy. Conclusions The decision to offer prophylaxis should be

  2. Radiation dose and cancer risk estimates in helical CT for pulmonary tuberculosis infections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeleye, Bamise; Chetty, Naven

    2017-12-01

    The preference for computed tomography (CT) for the clinical assessment of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) infections has increased the concern about the potential risk of cancer in exposed patients. In this study, we investigated the correlation between cancer risk and radiation doses from different CT scanners, assuming an equivalent scan protocol. Radiation doses from three 16-slice units were estimated using the CT-Expo dosimetry software version 2.4 and standard CT scan protocol for patients with suspected PTB infections. The lifetime risk of cancer for each scanner was determined using the methodology outlined in the BEIR VII report. Organ doses were significantly different (P < 0.05) between the scanners. The calculated effective dose for scanner H2 is 34% and 37% higher than scanners H3 and H1 respectively. A high and statistically significant correlation was observed between estimated lifetime cancer risk for both male (r2 = 0.943, P < 0.05) and female patients (r2 = 0.989, P < 0.05). The risk variation between the scanners was slightly higher than 2% for all ages but was much smaller for specific ages for male and female patients (0.2% and 0.7%, respectively). These variations provide an indication that the use of a scanner optimizing protocol is imperative.

  3. Radiation dose and cancer risk estimates in helical CT for pulmonary tuberculosis infections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adeleye Bamise

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The preference for computed tomography (CT for the clinical assessment of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB infections has increased the concern about the potential risk of cancer in exposed patients. In this study, we investigated the correlation between cancer risk and radiation doses from different CT scanners, assuming an equivalent scan protocol. Radiation doses from three 16-slice units were estimated using the CT-Expo dosimetry software version 2.4 and standard CT scan protocol for patients with suspected PTB infections. The lifetime risk of cancer for each scanner was determined using the methodology outlined in the BEIR VII report. Organ doses were significantly different (P < 0.05 between the scanners. The calculated effective dose for scanner H2 is 34% and 37% higher than scanners H3 and H1 respectively. A high and statistically significant correlation was observed between estimated lifetime cancer risk for both male (r2 = 0.943, P < 0.05 and female patients (r2 = 0.989, P < 0.05. The risk variation between the scanners was slightly higher than 2% for all ages but was much smaller for specific ages for male and female patients (0.2% and 0.7%, respectively. These variations provide an indication that the use of a scanner optimizing protocol is imperative.

  4. What Role for Biologically Based Dose–Response Models in Estimating Low-Dose Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crump, Kenny S.; Chen, Chao; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Louis, Thomas A.; Portier, Christopher J.; Subramaniam, Ravi P.; White, Paul D.

    2010-01-01

    Background Biologically based dose–response (BBDR) models can incorporate data on biological processes at the cellular and molecular level to link external exposure to an adverse effect. Objectives Our goal was to examine the utility of BBDR models in estimating low-dose risk. Methods We reviewed the utility of BBDR models in risk assessment. Results BBDR models have been used profitably to evaluate proposed mechanisms of toxicity and identify data gaps. However, these models have not improved the reliability of quantitative predictions of low-dose human risk. In this commentary we identify serious impediments to developing BBDR models for this purpose. BBDR models do not eliminate the need for empirical modeling of the relationship between dose and effect, but only move it from the whole organism to a lower level of biological organization. However, in doing this, BBDR models introduce significant new sources of uncertainty. Quantitative inferences are limited by inter- and intraindividual heterogeneity that cannot be eliminated with available or reasonably anticipated experimental techniques. BBDR modeling does not avoid uncertainties in the mechanisms of toxicity relevant to low-level human exposures. Although implementation of BBDR models for low-dose risk estimation have thus far been limited mainly to cancer modeled using a two-stage clonal expansion framework, these problems are expected to be present in all attempts at BBDR modeling. Conclusions The problems discussed here appear so intractable that we conclude that BBDR models are unlikely to be fruitful in reducing uncertainty in quantitative estimates of human risk from low-level exposures in the foreseeable future. Use of in vitro data from recent advances in molecular toxicology in BBDR models is not likely to remove these problems and will introduce new issues regarding extrapolation of data from in vitro systems. PMID:20056564

  5. Bias correction of estimates of familial risk from population-based cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leu, Monica; Czene, Kamila; Reilly, Marie

    2010-02-01

    In addition to guiding molecular epidemiology investigations, estimates of the increased risk of disease in relatives of affected persons are also important for screening and counselling decisions. Since precise estimation of such familial risks (FRs) requires large sample sizes, many of the estimates in common use have been obtained from historical electronic records of disease in entire populations, where the relatives of affected and unaffected persons are compared. These estimates may be biased due to failure to identify relatives as affected if they are diagnosed before the start-up date of disease registration. This article presents a method for correcting the bias in FR estimates from such misclassification of family history, using a simple formula that depends on the prevalence and sensitivity of the observed family history. The sensitivity is estimated by using the R package poplab to create realistic populations of related individuals and then imposing the start-up effect of disease registration. For a range of FRs, the truncation of family history is demonstrated to result in non-differential misclassification, and sensitivity that has little or no dependence on the FR. The bias is most pronounced for high FRs and for registers with a short life span, and increases with the age of the study cohort. In all the situations studied, the bias-corrected estimates are in excellent agreement with the true values. In summary, our method can correct the inevitable bias in FRs induced by using electronic population data, and is a feasible alternative to the use of validation samples.

  6. Estimating risk for earth-satellite attenuation prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crane, Robert K.

    1993-01-01

    Annual cumulative distributions of attenuation measurements and of rain-rate measurements were obtained from several locations in Europe and the United States. They were analyzed to estimate the year-to-year variability to be associated with a prediction of the expected cumulative distribution. Two models were constructed to estimate variability, an ad hoc model that summarized a number of observations when compared to model predictions and a probabilistic model that applied the ideas of order statistics to the prediction problem when the number of independent attenuation or rain-rate events in a sample year could be estimated. Based on these models, the statistical uncertainty in a model prediction may be estimated. The estimation procedure also provides an answer to the question of the number of years of observation needed to provide an estimate of the empirical distribution with a specified statistical uncertainty.

  7. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in pediatric chest CT: a study in 30 patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Frush, Donald P.

    2010-04-01

    Radiation-dose awareness and optimization in CT can greatly benefit from a dosereporting system that provides radiation dose and cancer risk estimates specific to each patient and each CT examination. Recently, we reported a method for estimating patientspecific dose from pediatric chest CT. The purpose of this study is to extend that effort to patient-specific risk estimation and to a population of pediatric CT patients. Our study included thirty pediatric CT patients (16 males and 14 females; 0-16 years old), for whom full-body computer models were recently created based on the patients' clinical CT data. Using a validated Monte Carlo program, organ dose received by the thirty patients from a chest scan protocol (LightSpeed VCT, 120 kVp, 1.375 pitch, 40-mm collimation, pediatric body scan field-of-view) was simulated and used to estimate patient-specific effective dose. Risks of cancer incidence were calculated for radiosensitive organs using gender-, age-, and tissue-specific risk coefficients and were used to derive patientspecific effective risk. The thirty patients had normalized effective dose of 3.7-10.4 mSv/100 mAs and normalized effective risk of 0.5-5.8 cases/1000 exposed persons/100 mAs. Normalized lung dose and risk of lung cancer correlated strongly with average chest diameter (correlation coefficient: r = -0.98 to -0.99). Normalized effective risk also correlated strongly with average chest diameter (r = -0.97 to -0.98). These strong correlations can be used to estimate patient-specific dose and risk prior to or after an imaging study to potentially guide healthcare providers in justifying CT examinations and to guide individualized protocol design and optimization.

  8. Estimation of Biological Effects of Tritium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umata, Toshiyuki

    2017-01-01

    Nuclear fusion technology is expected to create new energy in the future. However, nuclear fusion requires a large amount of tritium as a fuel, leading to concern about the exposure of radiation workers to tritium beta radiation. Furthermore, countermeasures for tritium-polluted water produced in decommissioning of the reactor at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station may potentially cause health problems in radiation workers. Although, internal exposure to tritium at a low dose/low dose rate can be assumed, biological effect of tritium exposure is not negligible, because tritiated water (HTO) intake to the body via the mouth/inhalation/skin would lead to homogeneous distribution throughout the whole body. Furthermore, organically-bound tritium (OBT) stays in the body as parts of the molecules that comprise living organisms resulting in long-term exposure, and the chemical form of tritium should be considered. To evaluate the biological effect of tritium, the effect should be compared with that of other radiation types. Many studies have examined the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of tritium. Hence, we report the RBE, which was obtained with radiation carcinogenesis classified as a stochastic effect, and serves as a reference for cancer risk. We also introduce the outline of the tritium experiment and the principle of a recently developed animal experimental system using transgenic mouse to detect the biological influence of radiation exposure at a low dose/low dose rate.

  9. Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

    1991-01-01

    It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

  10. Estimated Reduction in Cancer Risk due to PAH Exposures If Source Control Measures during the 2008 Beijing Olympics Were Sustained

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yuling; Stone, Dave; Wang, Wentao; Schrlau, Jill; Tao, Shu; Massey Simonich, Staci L.

    2011-01-01

    Background The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games provided a unique case study to investigate the effect of source control measures on the reduction in air pollution, and associated inhalation cancer risk, in a Chinese megacity. Objectives We measured 17 carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and estimated the lifetime excess inhalation cancer risk during different periods of the Beijing Olympic Games, to assess the effectiveness of source control measures in reducing PAH-induced inhalation cancer risks. Methods PAH concentrations were measured in samples of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) collected during the Beijing Olympic Games, and the associated inhalation cancer risks were estimated using a point-estimate approach based on relative potency factors. Results We estimated the number of lifetime excess cancer cases due to exposure to the 17 carcinogenic PAHs [12 priority pollutant PAHs and five high-molecular-weight (302 Da) PAHs (MW 302 PAHs)] to range from 6.5 to 518 per million people for the source control period concentrations and from 12.2 to 964 per million people for the nonsource control period concentrations. This would correspond to a 46% reduction in estimated inhalation cancer risk due to source control measures, if these measures were sustained over time. Benzo[b]fluoranthene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene, benzo[a]pyrene, and dibenzo[a,l]pyrene were the most carcinogenic PAH species evaluated. Total excess inhalation cancer risk would be underestimated by 23% if we did not include the five MW 302 PAHs in the risk calculation. Conclusions Source control measures, such as those imposed during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, can significantly reduce the inhalation cancer risk associated with PAH exposure in Chinese megacities similar to Beijing. MW 302 PAHs are a significant contributor to the estimated overall inhalation cancer risk. PMID:21632310

  11. Validating diagnoses from hospital discharge registers change risk estimates for acute coronary syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Albert Marni; Schmidt, Erik Berg; Dethlefsen, Claus

    2007-01-01

    Objectives Hospital discharge registers are cost-efficient data sources; however, their usability is highly dependent on the quality of the registered data. No previous studies have examined the effect of validating discharge diagnoses on relative risk estimates. We examined if a validation...... of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) diagnoses identified in a hospital discharge register changed the relative risk estimates of well-established risk factors for ACS. Methods All first-time ACS diagnoses (n=1138) in the Danish National Patient Registry were identified among male participants in the Danish......-established cardiovascular risk factors appeared higher when using validated compared to crude hospital discharge data: smoking: 2.47 (2.13 - 2.87) vs. 2.06 (1.83 - 2.31), hypertension:  1.77 (1.57 - 1.98) vs. 1.74 (1.58 - 1.91), hypercholesterolemia: 1.74 (1.42 - 2.14) vs. 1.68 (1.43 - 1.90) diabetes mellitus: 1.57 (1...

  12. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyeongah Nah

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience.

  13. Local land-use change based risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nussbaumer, S.; Huggel, C.; Schaub, Y.; Walz, A.

    2013-08-01

    Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing risk of landslides which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available. It is actually a challenge to develop methods to evaluate both, future hazard potential and future damage potential. Here we present an analysis of future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To estimate two hazard scenarios, we used glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling, simple flood modelling and field work. Further we developed a land-use model to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for a time period of 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study corroborates the importance of land-use planning to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.

  14. Risk estimation for future glacier lake outburst floods based on local land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nussbaumer, S.; Schaub, Y.; Huggel, C.; Walz, A.

    2014-06-01

    Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential. Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.

  15. Ecological risk estimation of organophosphorus pesticides in riverine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wee, Sze Yee; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

    2017-12-01

    Pesticides are of great concern because of their existence in ecosystems at trace concentrations. Worldwide pesticide use and its ecological impacts (i.e., altered environmental distribution and toxicity of pesticides) have increased over time. Exposure and toxicity studies are vital for reducing the extent of pesticide exposure and risk to the environment and humans. Regional regulatory actions may be less relevant in some regions because the contamination and distribution of pesticides vary across regions and countries. The risk quotient (RQ) method was applied to assess the potential risk of organophosphorus pesticides (OPPs), primarily focusing on riverine ecosystems. Using the available ecotoxicity data, aquatic risks from OPPs (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) in the surface water of the Langat River, Selangor, Malaysia were evaluated based on general (RQm) and worst-case (RQex) scenarios. Since the ecotoxicity of quinalphos has not been well established, quinalphos was excluded from the risk assessment. The calculated RQs indicate medium risk (RQm = 0.17 and RQex = 0.66; 0.1 ≤ RQ  1 (high risk) was observed for both the general and worst cases of chlorpyrifos, but only for the worst cases of diazinon at all sites from downstream to upstream regions. Thus, chlorpyrifos posed a higher risk than diazinon along the Langat River, suggesting that organisms and humans could be exposed to potentially high levels of OPPs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparability of total cardiovascular disease risk estimates using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Survey logistic regression analyses assessed the sociodemographic determinants of CVD risk ≥20%. Results. There were 1 025 participants, 369 men and 656 women. Mean 10-year risk for a CVD event by Framingham laboratory- and non-laboratory-based and NHANES I non-laboratory-based equations for men was ...

  17. Performance of models for estimating absolute risk difference in multicenter trials with binary outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Pedroza

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reporting of absolute risk difference (RD is recommended for clinical and epidemiological prospective studies. In analyses of multicenter studies, adjustment for center is necessary when randomization is stratified by center or when there is large variation in patients outcomes across centers. While regression methods are used to estimate RD adjusted for baseline predictors and clustering, no formal evaluation of their performance has been previously conducted. Methods We performed a simulation study to evaluate 6 regression methods fitted under a generalized estimating equation framework: binomial identity, Poisson identity, Normal identity, log binomial, log Poisson, and logistic regression model. We compared the model estimates to unadjusted estimates. We varied the true response function (identity or log, number of subjects per center, true risk difference, control outcome rate, effect of baseline predictor, and intracenter correlation. We compared the models in terms of convergence, absolute bias and coverage of 95 % confidence intervals for RD. Results The 6 models performed very similar to each other for the majority of scenarios. However, the log binomial model did not converge for a large portion of the scenarios including a baseline predictor. In scenarios with outcome rate close to the parameter boundary, the binomial and Poisson identity models had the best performance, but differences from other models were negligible. The unadjusted method introduced little bias to the RD estimates, but its coverage was larger than the nominal value in some scenarios with an identity response. Under the log response, coverage from the unadjusted method was well below the nominal value (<80 % for some scenarios. Conclusions We recommend the use of a binomial or Poisson GEE model with identity link to estimate RD for correlated binary outcome data. If these models fail to run, then either a logistic regression, log Poisson

  18. Estimates of radiological risk from depleted uranium weapons in war scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

    2002-01-01

    Several weapons used during the recent conflict in Yugoslavia contain depleted uranium, including missiles and armor-piercing incendiary rounds. Health concern is related to the use of these weapons, because of the heavy-metal toxicity and radioactivity of uranium. Although chemical toxicity is considered the more important source of health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict, and uranium munitions are a possible source of contamination in the environment. Actual measurements of radioactive contamination are needed to assess the risk. In this paper, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate radiological risk related to different exposure scenarios. Dose caused by inhalation of radioactive aerosols and ground contamination induced by Tomahawk missile impact are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (HOTSPOT code). Environmental contamination and committed dose to the population resident in contaminated areas are predicted by a food-web model (RESRAD code). Small values of committed effective dose equivalent appear to be associated with missile impacts (50-y CEDE < 5 mSv), or population exposure by water-independent pathways (50-y CEDE < 80 mSv). The greatest hazard is related to the water contamination in conditions of effective leaching of uranium in the groundwater (50-y CEDE < 400 mSv). Even in this worst case scenario, the chemical toxicity largely predominates over radiological risk. These computer simulations suggest that little radiological risk is associated to the use of depleted uranium weapons.

  19. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  20. Production Risk and the Estimation of Ex Ante Cost Functions

    OpenAIRE

    Moschini, GianCarlo

    2001-01-01

    Cost function estimation under production uncertainty is problematic because the relevant cost is conditional on unobservable expected output. If input demand functions are also stochastic, then a nonlinear errors-in-variables model is obtained and standard estimation procedures typically fail to attain consistency. But by exploiting the full implications of the expected profit maximization hypothesis that gives rise to ex ante cost functions, it is shown that the errors-in-variables problem ...

  1. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2013-01-01

    This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on

  2. Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loar, J.M.

    2001-06-11

    The objective of this project is to provide DOE with improved methods to assess risks from contaminants to wildlife populations. The current approach for wildlife risk assessment consists of comparison of contaminant exposure estimates for individual animals to literature-derived toxicity test endpoints. These test endpoints are assumed to estimate thresholds for population-level effects. Moreover, species sensitivities to contaminants is one of several criteria to be considered when selecting assessment endpoints (EPA 1997 and 1998), yet data on the sensitivities of many birds and mammals are lacking. The uncertainties associated with this approach are considerable. First, because toxicity data are not available for most potential wildlife endpoint species, extrapolation of toxicity data from test species to the species of interest is required. There is no consensus on the most appropriate extrapolation method. Second, toxicity data are represented as statistical measures (e.g., NOAEL s or LOAELs) that provide no information on the nature or magnitude of effects. The level of effect is an artifact of the replication and dosing regime employed, and does not indicate how effects might increase with increasing exposure. Consequently, slight exceedance of a LOAEL is not distinguished from greatly exceeding it. Third, the relationship of toxic effects on individuals to effects on populations is poorly estimated by existing methods. It is assumed that if the exposure of individuals exceeds levels associated with impaired reproduction, then population level effects are likely. Uncertainty associated with this assumption is large because depending on the reproductive strategy of a given species, comparable levels of reproductive impairment may result in dramatically different population-level responses. This project included several tasks to address these problems: (1) investigation of the validity of the current allometric scaling approach for interspecies extrapolation

  3. Estimated drinking water fluoride exposure and risk of hip fracture: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Näsman, P; Ekstrand, J; Granath, F; Ekbom, A; Fored, C M

    2013-11-01

    The cariostatic benefit from water fluoridation is indisputable, but the knowledge of possible adverse effects on bone and fracture risk due to fluoride exposure is ambiguous. The association between long-term (chronic) drinking water fluoride exposure and hip fracture (ICD-7-9: '820' and ICD-10: 'S72.0-S72.2') was assessed in Sweden using nationwide registers. All individuals born in Sweden between January 1, 1900 and December 31, 1919, alive and living in their municipality of birth at the time of start of follow-up, were eligible for this study. Information on the study population (n = 473,277) was linked among the Swedish National In-Patient Register (IPR), the Swedish Cause of Death Register, and the Register of Population and Population Changes. Estimated individual drinking water fluoride exposure was stratified into 4 categories: very low, fluoride exposure and the occurrence of hip fracture. The risk estimates did not change in analyses restricted to only low-trauma osteoporotic hip fractures. Chronic fluoride exposure from drinking water does not seem to have any important effects on the risk of hip fracture, in the investigated exposure range.

  4. Estimated risk contribution for dry spent fuel storage cask

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, C.; Kirk, M.T.; Abramson, L.; Guttmann, J.; Hackett, E. [United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC (United States); Simonen, F.A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. Richland WA (United States)

    2001-07-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is pursuing means to risk-inform its regulations and programs for dry storage of spent nuclear fuel. In pursuit of this objective, the NRC will develop safety goals and probabilistic risk assessments for implementing risk-informed programs. This paper provides one example method for calculating the risk of a dry spent fuel storage cask under normal and accident conditions. The example is on the HI-STORM 100 cask at a proposed site containing four thousand such casks. The paper evaluates the risk to the public by determining the likelihood a welded stainless steel container will leak. In addition, the study addresses the risk at a site where 4,000 casks may be stored until the U.S. Department of Energy accepts the casks for placement in a repository. The methods used employ the PRODIGAL computer code to assess the probability of a faulty weld on a stainless steel-welded canister. These analyses are only the initial stages of a comprehensive risk study that the NRC is performing in support of its regulatory initiatives. (author)

  5. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Estimated radiation exposure and cancer risk from CT and PET/CT scans in patients with lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guttikonda, Ravi [Imaging Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195 (United States); Herts, Brian R., E-mail: hertsb@ccf.org [Imaging Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195 (United States); Taussig Cancer Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195 (United States); Dong, Frank [Imaging Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195 (United States); Baker, Mark E. [Imaging Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195 (United States); Taussig Cancer Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195 (United States); Fenner, Kathleen B.; Pohlman, Brad [Taussig Cancer Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Avenue, Cleveland, OH 44195 (United States)

    2014-06-15

    Introduction: The purpose of this study was to estimate total effective dose and cancer risk related to treatment monitoring and surveillance computed tomography (CT) scans in a cohort of patients diagnosed with lymphoma. Methods: 76 patients with head, neck, chest, abdomen or pelvis CT and whole-body positron emission tomography (PET)/CT were identified from an institutional lymphoma database; this included 54 (71%) patients with non-Hodgkin and 22 (29%) patients with classical Hodgkin lymphoma. Average treatment and surveillance periods were 8 months (range, 3–14 mo) and 23 months (range, 1–40 mo), respectively. Radiation exposure was estimated from the dose-length product (DLP) for CT scans and milli-Curies and DLP for PET/CT scans. Cancer risk was estimated using the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation model. Results: During their treatment period, 45 patients had 161 CT exams and 39 patients had 73 PET/CT exams. Mean effective dose was 39.3 mSv (range, 7.1–100 mSv). During the surveillance period, 60 patients had 378 CT exams and 25 patients had 39 PET/CT exams. Mean effective dose was 53.2 mSv (range, 2.6–154 mSv). Seventeen of 76 (22.4%) patients had total cumulative doses greater than 100 mSv. The mean increase in estimated cancer risk was 0.40%; the greatest estimated risk to any one patient was 1.19%. Conclusion: Mean total effective dose and mean estimated cancer risk were low in patients with lymphoma undergoing serial imaging, suggesting that theoretical risks of radiation-induced cancer need not be a major consideration in radiologic follow-up.

  7. Leptospirosis in American Samoa--estimating and mapping risk using environmental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Colleen L; Clements, Archie C A; Skelly, Chris; Dobson, Annette J; Smythe, Lee D; Weinstein, Philip

    2012-01-01

    The recent emergence of leptospirosis has been linked to many environmental drivers of disease transmission. Accurate epidemiological data are lacking because of under-diagnosis, poor laboratory capacity, and inadequate surveillance. Predictive risk maps have been produced for many diseases to identify high-risk areas for infection and guide allocation of public health resources, and are particularly useful where disease surveillance is poor. To date, no predictive risk maps have been produced for leptospirosis. The objectives of this study were to estimate leptospirosis seroprevalence at geographic locations based on environmental factors, produce a predictive disease risk map for American Samoa, and assess the accuracy of the maps in predicting infection risk. Data on seroprevalence and risk factors were obtained from a recent study of leptospirosis in American Samoa. Data on environmental variables were obtained from local sources, and included rainfall, altitude, vegetation, soil type, and location of backyard piggeries. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to investigate associations between seropositivity and risk factors. Using the multivariable models, seroprevalence at geographic locations was predicted based on environmental variables. Goodness of fit of models was measured using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic, and the percentage of cases correctly classified as seropositive. Environmental predictors of seroprevalence included living below median altitude of a village, in agricultural areas, on clay soil, and higher density of piggeries above the house. Models had acceptable goodness of fit, and correctly classified ∼84% of cases. Environmental variables could be used to identify high-risk areas for leptospirosis. Environmental monitoring could potentially be a valuable strategy for leptospirosis control, and allow us to move from disease surveillance to environmental health hazard surveillance as a more cost-effective

  8. Leptospirosis in American Samoa – Estimating and Mapping Risk Using Environmental Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Colleen L.; Clements, Archie C. A.; Skelly, Chris; Dobson, Annette J.; Smythe, Lee D.; Weinstein, Philip

    2012-01-01

    Background The recent emergence of leptospirosis has been linked to many environmental drivers of disease transmission. Accurate epidemiological data are lacking because of under-diagnosis, poor laboratory capacity, and inadequate surveillance. Predictive risk maps have been produced for many diseases to identify high-risk areas for infection and guide allocation of public health resources, and are particularly useful where disease surveillance is poor. To date, no predictive risk maps have been produced for leptospirosis. The objectives of this study were to estimate leptospirosis seroprevalence at geographic locations based on environmental factors, produce a predictive disease risk map for American Samoa, and assess the accuracy of the maps in predicting infection risk. Methodology and Principal Findings Data on seroprevalence and risk factors were obtained from a recent study of leptospirosis in American Samoa. Data on environmental variables were obtained from local sources, and included rainfall, altitude, vegetation, soil type, and location of backyard piggeries. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to investigate associations between seropositivity and risk factors. Using the multivariable models, seroprevalence at geographic locations was predicted based on environmental variables. Goodness of fit of models was measured using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic, and the percentage of cases correctly classified as seropositive. Environmental predictors of seroprevalence included living below median altitude of a village, in agricultural areas, on clay soil, and higher density of piggeries above the house. Models had acceptable goodness of fit, and correctly classified ∼84% of cases. Conclusions and Significance Environmental variables could be used to identify high-risk areas for leptospirosis. Environmental monitoring could potentially be a valuable strategy for leptospirosis control, and allow us to move from disease

  9. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P. [Medical Physics Graduate Program, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Department of Physics, and Department of Biomedical Engineering, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 and Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599 (United States); Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Duke Radiation Dosimetry Laboratory, Department of Radiology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Duke Radiation Dosimetry Laboratory, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705 (United States); Division of Pediatric Radiology, Department of Radiology, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27710 (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller

  10. Estimation of health risk by using toxicokinetic modelling: a case study of polychlorinated biphenyl PCB153.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Huusko, Antti; Nieminen, Pentti; Myllynen, Päivi; Pelkonen, Olavi; Vahakangas, Kirsi; Rautio, Arja

    2013-10-15

    To assess potential PCB153-associated human health effects and risks, it is necessary to model past exposure. PCB153 blood concentrations, obtained from the AMAP biomonitoring programme, in Inuit women covering the years 1994-2006 at Disko Bay, 1999-2005 at Nuuk, and 1992-2007 at Nunavik were used to extrapolate body burden and exposure to the whole lifespan of the population by the one-compartment toxicokinetic model. By using risk characterisation modelling, calculated Hazard Quotients were higher than 1 between the years 1955 and 1987 for the 90th population percentile and during 1956-1984 for the 50th population percentile. Cancer risk for overall exposure of PCB153 ranged from 4.6×10(-5) to 1.8×10(-6) for the 90th percentile and 3.6×10(-5) to 1.4×10(-10) for the 50th percentile between 1930 and 2049, when central estimates or upper-bound slope factors were applied. Cancer risk was below 1×10(-6) for the same time period when a lower slope factor was applied. Significant future research requirements to improve health risk characterisation include, among others, larger sample sizes, better analytical accuracy, fewer assumptions in exposure assessment, and consequently, a better choice of the toxicity benchmark used to develop the hazard quotient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The New Frontier in Risk Assessment: Estimation of Corporate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The expansion of credit rating agencies into emerging markets is examined with respect to the overall quality of informational signals provided by ratings to capital markets. Corporate ratings from six developing economies with relatively sophisticated financial sectors are modeled using ordered probit estimation techniques.

  12. A Model of Mental Effort and Endogenous Estimation Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Diego Nocetti

    2005-01-01

    I present a simple model that formalizes Kahneman's (1973) ideas and experimental work on attention limitations. In addition, I extend his framework to account for the interaction between attention and memory deficits. In particular, I propose that individuals optimally allocate their divisible, but limited, attention to estimate parameters of an economic model, by retrieving observations from a stock of memories, by means of a cognition technology. I speculate that the model might help expla...

  13. Validation of the Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES) in a primary care setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cass, Alvah R; Shepherd, Angela J

    2013-01-01

    Primary care physicians are positioned to promote early recognition and treatment of men at risk for osteoporosis-related fractures; however, efficient screening strategies are needed. This study was designed to validate the Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES) for identifying men at increased risk of osteoporosis. This was a blinded analysis of the MORES, administered prospectively in a cross-sectional sample of men aged 60 years or older. Participants completed a research questionnaire at an outpatient visit and had a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan to assess bone density. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under-the-curve (AUC) were estimated for the MORES. Effectiveness was assessed by the number needed-to-screen (NNS) to prevent one additional major osteoporotic fracture. A total of 346 men completed the study. The mean age was 70.2 ± 6.9 years; 76% were non-Hispanic white. Fifteen men (4.3%) had osteoporosis of the hip. The operating characteristics were sensitivity 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-0.96); specificity 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74), and AUC of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71-0.92). Screening with the MORES yielded a NNS to prevent one additional major osteoporotic fracture over 10 years with 259 (95% CI, 192-449) compared to 636 for universal screening with a DXA. This study validated the MORES as an effective and efficient approach to identifying men at increased risk of osteoporosis who may benefit from a diagnostic DXA scan.

  14. Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children (PREDIC): a pilot study from Matlab, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borse, N N; Hyder, A A; Bishai, D; Baker, T; Arifeen, S E

    2011-11-01

    Childhood drowning is a major public health problem that has been neglected in many low- and middle-income countries. In Matlab, rural Bangladesh, more than 40% of child deaths aged 1-4 years are due to drowning. The main objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate a childhood drowning risk prediction index. A literature review was carried out to document risk factors identified for childhood drowning in Bangladesh. The Newacheck model for special health care needs for children was adapted and applied to construct a childhood drowning risk index called "Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children" (PREDIC). Finally, the proposed PREDIC Index was applied to childhood drowning deaths and compared with the comparison group from children living in Matlab, Bangladesh. This pilot study used t-tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to analyze the results. The PREDIC index was applied to 302 drowning deaths and 624 children 0-4 years old living in Matlab. The results of t-test indicate that the drowned children had a statistically (t=-8.58, p=0.0001) significant higher mean PREDIC score (6.01) than those in comparison group (5.26). Drowning cases had a PREDIC score of 6 or more for 68% of the children however, the comparison group had 43% of the children with score of 6 or more which was statistically significant (t=-7.36, p<0.001). The area under the curve for the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.662. Index score construction was scientifically plausible; and the index is relatively complete, fairly accurate, and practical. The risk index can help identify and target high risk children with drowning prevention programs. PREDIC index needs to be further tested for its accuracy, feasibility and effectiveness in drowning risk reduction in Bangladesh and other countries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Longer genotypically-estimated leukocyte telomere length is associated with increased adult glioma risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Kyle M.; Codd, Veryan; Rice, Terri; Nelson, Christopher P.; Smirnov, Ivan V.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Hansen, Helen M.; Elhauge, Edward; Ojha, Juhi; Francis, Stephen S.; Madsen, Nils R.; Bracci, Paige M.; Pico, Alexander R.; Molinaro, Annette M.; Tihan, Tarik; Berger, Mitchel S.; Chang, Susan M.; Prados, Michael D.; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Wiencke, John K.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

    2015-01-01

    Telomere maintenance has emerged as an important molecular feature with impacts on adult glioma susceptibility and prognosis. Whether longer or shorter leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is associated with glioma risk remains elusive and is often confounded by the effects of age and patient treatment. We sought to determine if genotypically-estimated LTL is associated with glioma risk and if inherited single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with LTL are glioma risk factors. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we assessed differences in genotypically-estimated relative LTL in two independent glioma case-control datasets from the UCSF Adult Glioma Study (652 patients and 3735 controls) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (478 non-overlapping patients and 2559 controls). LTL estimates were based on a weighted linear combination of subject genotype at eight SNPs, previously associated with LTL in the ENGAGE Consortium Telomere Project. Mean estimated LTL was 31bp (5.7%) longer in glioma patients than controls in discovery analyses (P = 7.82×10-8) and 27bp (5.0%) longer in glioma patients than controls in replication analyses (1.48×10-3). Glioma risk increased monotonically with each increasing septile of LTL (O.R.=1.12; P = 3.83×10-12). Four LTL-associated SNPs were significantly associated with glioma risk in pooled analyses, including those in the telomerase component genes TERC (O.R.=1.14; 95% C.I.=1.03-1.28) and TERT (O.R.=1.39; 95% C.I.=1.27-1.52), and those in the CST complex genes OBFC1 (O.R.=1.18; 95% C.I.=1.05-1.33) and CTC1 (O.R.=1.14; 95% C.I.=1.02-1.28). Future work is needed to characterize the role of the CST complex in gliomagenesis and further elucidate the complex balance between ageing, telomere length, and molecular carcinogenesis. PMID:26646793

  16. Estimation of Employee Turnover with Competing Risks Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzenda Wioletta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Employee turnover accompanies every business organization, regardless of the industry and size. Nowadays, many companies struggle with problems related to the lack of sufficient information about the nature of employee turnover processes. Therefore, comprehensive analysis of these processes is necessary. This article aims to examine the turnover of employees from a big manufacturing company using competing risks models with covariates and without covariates. This technique allows to incorporate the information about the type of employment contract termination. Moreover, Cox proportional hazard model enables the researcher to analyse simultaneously multiple factors that affect employment duration. One of the major observations is that employee remuneration level differentiates most strongly the risk of job resignation.

  17. Bracketing effects on risk tolerance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ester Moher

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that risk tolerance increases when multiple decisions and associated outcomes are presented together in a broader ``bracket'' rather than one at a time. The present studies disentangle the influence of problem bracketing (presenting multiple investment options together from that of outcome bracketing (presenting the aggregated outcomes of multiple decisions, factors which have been deliberately confounded in previous research. In the standard version of the bracketing task, in which participants decide how much of an initial endowment to invest into each in a series of repeated, identical gambles, we find a problem bracketing effect but not an outcome bracketing effect. However, this pattern of results does not generalize to the cases of non-identical gambles nor discrete choice, where we fail to find the standard bracketing effect.

  18. Identification and risk estimation of movement strategies during cutting maneuvers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Sina; Komnik, Igor; Peters, Markus; Funken, Johannes; Potthast, Wolfgang

    2017-05-25

    Approximately 70% of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries occur in non-contact situations during cutting and landing maneuvers. Parameters such as footstrike patterns and trunk orientation were found to influence ACL relevant knee loading, however, the relationship between the whole body movement and injury risk is debated. This study identifies whole body movement strategies that increase injury risk, and provides training recommendations to reduce this risk or enable a save return to sports after injury. Experimental cross-sectional study design. Three dimensional movement analysis was carried out to investigate 50 participants performing anticipated 90° cutting maneuvers. To identify and characterize movement strategies, footstrike pattern, knee valgus moment, knee internal rotation moment, angle of attack, shoulder and pelvis axis were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. Three different movement strategies were identified. One strategy included rearfoot striking in combination with a relatively upright body position which generated higher knee joint loads than the second strategy, forefoot striking in combination with more backwards leaning and pre-rotation of the trunk towards the new movement direction. A third strategy combined forefoot striking with less preorientation which increased the ACL relevant knee joint load compared to the second strategy. The identified movement strategies clearly pre-determine the injury risk during non-contact situations with the third strategy as the most unfavorable one. Compared to the study of isolated parameters, the analysis of the whole body movement allowed for detailed separation of more risky from less risky cutting strategies. These results give practical recommendations for the prevention of ACL injury. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

  20. Combining Radiation Epidemiology With Molecular Biology-Changing From Health Risk Estimates to Therapeutic Intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abend, Michael; Port, Matthias

    2016-08-01

    The authors herein summarize six presentations dedicated to the key session "molecular radiation epidemiology" of the ConRad meeting 2015. These presentations were chosen in order to highlight the promise when combining conventional radiation epidemiology with molecular biology. Conventional radiation epidemiology uses dose estimates for risk predictions on health. However, combined with molecular biology, dose-dependent bioindicators of effect hold the promise to improve clinical diagnostics and to provide target molecules for potential therapeutic intervention. One out of the six presentations exemplified the use of radiation-induced molecular changes as biomarkers of exposure by measuring stabile chromosomal translocations. The remaining five presentations focused on molecular changes used as bioindicators of the effect. These bioindicators of the effect could be used for diagnostic purposes on colon cancers (genomic instability), thyroid cancer (CLIP2), or head and neck squamous cell cancers. Therapeutic implications of gene expression changes were examined in Chernobyl thyroid cancer victims and Mayak workers.

  1. Interactions of Lipid Genetic Risk Scores with Estimates of Metabolic Health in a Danish Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Johanne M; Allin, Kristine H; Sandholt, Camilla H

    2015-01-01

    -cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, or triglyceride, 4 weighted GRS were constructed. In a cross-sectional design, we investigated whether the effect of these weighted GRSs on lipid levels were modulated by diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and smoking or the individual metabolic health...... and these susceptibility loci has not been fully elucidated. We tested whether genetic risk scores (GRS) of lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms associate with fasting serum lipid traits and whether the effects are modulated by lifestyle factors or estimates of metabolic health. Methods and Results—The single...... nucleotide polymorphisms were genotyped in 2 Danish cohorts: inter99 (n=5961) for discovery analyses and Health2006 (n=2565) for replication. On the basis of published effect sizes of single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with circulating fasting levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein...

  2. An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

    2014-03-01

    Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimation of insurance premiums for coverage against natural disaster risk: an application of Bayesian Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Paudel

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study applies Bayesian Inference to estimate flood risk for 53 dyke ring areas in the Netherlands, and focuses particularly on the data scarcity and extreme behaviour of catastrophe risk. The probability density curves of flood damage are estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. Based on these results, flood insurance premiums are estimated using two different practical methods that each account in different ways for an insurer's risk aversion and the dispersion rate of loss data. This study is of practical relevance because insurers have been considering the introduction of flood insurance in the Netherlands, which is currently not generally available.

  4. Risks of circulatory diseases among Mayak PA workers with radiation doses estimated using the improved Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moseeva, Maria B.; Azizova, Tamara V.; Grigoryeva, Evgenia S. [Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (SUBI), Ozyorsk, Chelyabinsk Region (Russian Federation); Haylock, Richard [Public Health of England, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-05-15

    The new Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008) was published in 2013 and supersedes the Doses-2005 dosimetry system for Mayak Production Association (PA) workers. It provides revised external and internal dose estimates based on the updated occupational history data. Using MWDS-2008, a cohort of 18,856 workers first employed at one of the main Mayak PA plants during 1948-1972 and followed up to 2005 was identified. Incidence and mortality risks from ischemic heart disease (IHD) (International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 codes 410-414) and from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (ICD-9 codes 430-438) were examined in this cohort and compared with previously published risk estimates in the same cohort based on the Doses-2005 dosimetry system. Significant associations were observed between doses from external gamma-rays and IHD and CVD incidence and also between internal doses from alpha-radiation and IHD mortality and CVD incidence. The estimates of excess relative risk (ERR)/Gy were consistent with those estimates from the previous studies based on Doses-2005 system apart from the relationship between CVD incidence and internal liver dose where the ERR/Gy based on MWDS-2008 was just over three times higher than the corresponding estimate based on Doses-2005 system. Adjustment for smoking status did not show any effect on the estimates of risk from internal alpha-particle exposure. (orig.)

  5. Radiobiological risk estimates of adverse events and secondary cancer for proton and photon radiation therapy of pediatric medulloblastoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodin, N Patrik; Munck af Rosenschöld, Per Martin; Aznar, Marianne C

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this model study was to estimate and compare the risk of radiation-induced adverse late effects in pediatric patients with medulloblastoma (MB) treated with either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT), inversely-optimized arc therapy (RapidArc(®) (RA)) or spot...

  6. 3-D Projected L1 inversion of gravity data using truncated unbiased predictive risk estimator for regularization parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vatankhah, Saeed; Renaut, Rosemary A.; Ardestani, Vahid E.

    2017-09-01

    Sparse inversion of gravity data based on L1-norm regularization is discussed. An iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm is used to solve the problem. At each iteration the solution of a linear system of equations and the determination of a suitable regularization parameter are considered. The LSQR iteration is used to project the system of equations onto a smaller subspace that inherits the ill-conditioning of the full space problem. We show that the gravity kernel is only mildly to moderately ill-conditioned. Thus, while the dominant spectrum of the projected problem accurately approximates the dominant spectrum of the full space problem, the entire spectrum of the projected problem inherits the ill-conditioning of the full problem. Consequently, determining the regularization parameter based on the entire spectrum of the projected problem necessarily over compensates for the non-dominant portion of the spectrum and leads to inaccurate approximations for the full-space solution. In contrast, finding the regularization parameter using a truncated singular space of the projected operator is efficient and effective. Simulations for synthetic examples with noise demonstrate the approach using the method of unbiased predictive risk estimation for the truncated projected spectrum. The method is used on gravity data from the Mobrun ore body, northeast of Noranda, Quebec, Canada. The 3-D reconstructed model is in agreement with known drill-hole information.

  7. Background Suppression Effects on Signal Estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burr, Tom [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    Gamma detectors at border crossings are intended to detect illicit nuclear material. One performance challenge involves the fact that vehicles suppress the natural background, thus potentially reducing detection probability for threat items. Methods to adjust for background suppression have been considered in related but different settings. Here, methods to adjust for background suppression are tested in the context of signal estimation. Adjustment methods include several clustering options. We find that for the small-to-moderate suppression magnitudes exhibited in the analyzed data, suppression adjustment is only moderatel helpful in locating the signal peak, and in estimating its width or magnitude.

  8. Developing an objective evaluation method to estimate diabetes risk in community-based settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenya, Sonjia; He, Qing; Fullilove, Robert; Kotler, Donald P

    2011-05-01

    Exercise interventions often aim to affect abdominal obesity and glucose tolerance, two significant risk factors for type 2 diabetes. Because of limited financial and clinical resources in community and university-based environments, intervention effects are often measured with interviews or questionnaires and correlated with weight loss or body fat indicated by body bioimpedence analysis (BIA). However, self-reported assessments are subject to high levels of bias and low levels of reliability. Because obesity and body fat are correlated with diabetes at different levels in various ethnic groups, data reflecting changes in weight or fat do not necessarily indicate changes in diabetes risk. To determine how exercise interventions affect diabetes risk in community and university-based settings, improved evaluation methods are warranted. We compared a noninvasive, objective measurement technique--regional BIA--with whole-body BIA for its ability to assess abdominal obesity and predict glucose tolerance in 39 women. To determine regional BIA's utility in predicting glucose, we tested the association between the regional BIA method and blood glucose levels. Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat area were significantly correlated (r = 0.554, P < 0.003) with fasting glucose. When waist circumference and family history of diabetes were added to abdominal fat in multiple regression models, the association with glucose increased further (r = 0.701, P < 0.001). Regional BIA estimates of abdominal fat may predict fasting glucose better than whole-body BIA as well as provide an objective assessment of changes in diabetes risk achieved through physical activity interventions in community settings.

  9. Improving risk estimates for metabolically healthy obesity and mortality using a refined healthy reference group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamer, Mark; Johnson, William; Bell, Joshua A

    2017-08-01

    We aimed to re-examine mortality risk estimates for metabolically healthy obesity by using a 'stable' healthy non-obese referent group. Prospective cohort study. Participants were 5427 men and women (aged 65.9 ± 9.4 years, 45.9% men) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Obesity was defined as body mass index ≥30 kg/m(2) (vs non-obese as below this threshold). Based on blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, glycated hemoglobin and C-reactive protein, participants were classified as 'healthy' (0 or 1 metabolic abnormality) or 'unhealthy' (≥2 metabolic abnormalities). Totally, 671 deaths were observed over an average follow-up of 8 years. When defining the referent group based on 1 clinical assessment, the unhealthy non-obese (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.22; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.45) and unhealthy obese (HR = 1.29; CI: 1.05, 1.60) were at greater risk of all-cause mortality compared to the healthy non-obese, yet no excess risk was seen in the healthy obese (HR = 1.14; CI: 0.83, 1.52). When we re-defined the referent group based on 2 clinical assessments, effect estimates were accentuated and healthy obesity was at increased risk of mortality (HR = 2.67; CI: 1.64, 4.34). An unstable healthy referent group may make 'healthy obesity' appear less harmful by obscuring the benefits of remaining never obese without metabolic dysfunction. © 2017 The authors.

  10. Estimating the risk of rabies transmission to humans in the U.S.: a Delphi analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vaidya, Sagar A; Manning, Susan E; Dhankhar, Praveen; Meltzer, Martin I; Rupprecht, Charles; Hull, Harry F; Fishbein, Daniel B

    2010-01-01

    ...), often in inappropriate circumstances. We used the Delphi method to obtain an expert group consensus estimate of the risk of rabies transmission to humans in seven scenarios of potential rabies exposure...

  11. R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of...

  12. State Estimates of Adolescent Cigarette Use and Perceptions of Risk of Smoking: 2012 and 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Report May 18, 2015 STATE ESTIMATES OF ADOLESCENT CIGARETTE USE AND PERCEPTIONS OF RISK OF SMOKING: 2012 ... D., and Arthur Hughes, M.S. In Brief INTRODUCTION Cigarette smoking and exposure to secondhand smoke causes more ...

  13. Missing information caused by death leads to bias in relative risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binder, Nadine; Schumacher, Martin

    2014-10-01

    In most clinical and epidemiologic studies, information on disease status is usually collected at regular follow-up visits. Often, this information can only be retrieved in individuals who are alive at follow-up, and studies frequently right censor individuals with missing information because of death in the analysis. Such ad hoc analyses can lead to seriously biased hazard ratio estimates of potential risk factors. We systematically investigate this bias. We illustrate under which conditions the bias can occur. Considering three numerical studies, we characterize the bias, its magnitude, and direction as well as its real-world relevance. Depending on the situation studied, the bias can be substantial and in both directions. It is mainly caused by differential mortality: if deaths without occurrence of the disease are more pronounced, the risk factor effect is overestimated. However, if the risk for dying after being diseased is prevailing, the effect is mostly underestimated and might even change signs. The bias is a result of both, a too coarse follow-up and an ad hoc Cox analysis in which the data sample is restricted to the observed and known event history. This is especially relevant for studies in which a considerable number of death cases are expected. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. ORIGINAL ARTICLE Estimation of annual occupational effective ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    airport security cargo scanners, and a few dozen radioactive sources are estimated to be used in agriculture, as well as in industrial gamma radiography. A few sources with low activities are found at the in vitro biomedical research and teaching institutions. Medical use accounts for the largest proportion of ionising radiation ...

  15. Estimating Equilibrium Effects of Job Search Assistance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gautier, Pieter; Muller, Paul; van der Klaauw, Bas

    that the nonparticipants in the experiment regions find jobs slower after the introduction of the activation program (relative to workers in other regions). We then estimate an equilibrium search model. This model shows that a large scale role out of the activation program decreases welfare, while a standard partial...... microeconometric cost-benefit analysis would conclude the opposite....

  16. Estimation of Uncertainty in Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Krymsky, V.; Kozine, Igor

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen technologies such as hydrogen fuelled vehicles and refuelling stations are being tested in practice in a number of projects (e.g. HyFleet-Cute and Whistler project) giving valuable information on the reliability and maintenance requirements. In order to establish refuelling stations...... and extrapolations to be made. Therefore, the QRA results will contain varying degrees of uncertainty as some components are well established while others are not. The paper describes a methodology to evaluate the degree of uncertainty in data for hydrogen applications based on the bias concept of the total...... probability and the NUSAP concept to quantify uncertainties of new not fully qualified hydrogen technologies and implications to risk management....

  17. Estimation of cumulative aquatic exposure and risk due to silver: contribution of nano-functionalized plastics and textiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaser, Sabine A; Scheringer, Martin; Macleod, Matthew; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2008-02-15

    Products with antimicrobial effect based on silver nanoparticles are increasingly used in Asia, North America and Europe. This study presents an analysis of risk to freshwater ecosystems from silver released from these nanoparticles incorporated into textiles and plastics. The analysis is presented in four stages; (i) silver mass flow analysis and estimation of emissions, (ii) assessment of the fate of silver in a river system and estimation of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs), (iii) critical evaluation of available toxicity data for environmentally relevant forms of silver and estimation of predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs), and (iv) risk characterization. Our assessment is based on estimated silver use in the year 2010, focusing on the Rhine river as a case study. In 2010, biocidal plastics and textiles are predicted to account for up to 15% of the total silver released into water in the European Union. The majority of silver released into wastewater is incorporated into sewage sludge and may be spread on agricultural fields. The amount of silver reaching natural waters depends on the fraction of wastewater that is effectively treated. Modeled PECs in the Rhine river are in satisfactory agreement with monitoring data from other river systems. Because a complete characterization of the toxicity of environmentally relevant silver species is lacking, only a limited risk assessment is possible at this time. However, our study indicates that PEC/PNEC ratios greater than 1 cannot be ruled out for freshwater ecosystems, in particular sediments. No risk is predicted for microbial communities in sewage treatment plants.

  18. Effective risk management SOGO life cycle management

    OpenAIRE

    Ali, Mohamed Omar

    2012-01-01

    Master's thesis in Industrial Economics After new or upgrade projects the offshore installation gets maintenance or support through the life cycle management organization at Siemens. Small to medium modification projects are executed by the life cycle management. Risk assessment on these projects show different risks when it comes to estimation and pricing of projects, planning and executing, resource management, competence and knowledge.

  19. Effective risk management SOGO life cycle management

    OpenAIRE

    Ali, Mohamed Omar

    2012-01-01

    After new or upgrade projects the offshore installation gets maintenance or support through the life cycle management organization at Siemens. Small to medium modification projects are executed by the life cycle management. Risk assessment on these projects show different risks when it comes to estimation and pricing of projects, planning and executing, resource management, competence and knowledge.

  20. ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE AND INTEREST ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Common stock value is affected by two important economic and financial risk factors namely interest rate and exchange rate. Interest rate which reflects the price of money also affects other variables in the financial market. Valuation of stock prices is indirectly affected by interest rates while directly its volatility causes a shift ...

  1. Performance of Random Effects Model Estimators under Complex Sampling Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yue; Stokes, Lynne; Harris, Ian; Wang, Yan

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we consider estimation of parameters of random effects models from samples collected via complex multistage designs. Incorporation of sampling weights is one way to reduce estimation bias due to unequal probabilities of selection. Several weighting methods have been proposed in the literature for estimating the parameters of…

  2. Risk estimation for healthy women from breast cancer families : New insights and new strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asperen, CJ; Jonker, MA; Jacobi, CE; van Diemen-Homan, JEM; Bakker, E; Breuning, MH; van Houwelingen, JC; de Bock, GH

    Risk estimation in breast cancer families is often estimated by use of the Claus tables. We analyzed the family histories of 196 counselees; compared the Claus tables with the Claus, the BRCA1/2, the BRCA1/2/ models; and performed linear regression analysis to extend the Claus tables with

  3. How well can adolescents really judge risk? Simple, self reported risk factors out-predict teens' self estimates of personal risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Persoskie

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent investigations of adolescents' beliefs about risk have led to surprisingly optimistic conclusions: Teens' self estimates of their likelihood of experiencing various life events not only correlate sensibly with relevant risk factors (Fischhoff et al., 2000, but they also significantly predict later experiencing the events (Bruine de Bruin et al., 2007. Using the same dataset examined in previous investigations, the present study extended these analyses by comparing the predictive value of self estimates of risk to that of traditional risk factors for each outcome. The analyses focused on the prediction of pregnancy, criminal arrest, and school enrollment. Three findings emerged. First, traditional risk factor information tended to out-predict self assessments of risk, even when the risk factors included crude, potentially unreliable measures (e.g., a simple tally of self-reported criminal history and when the risk factors were aggregated in a nonoptimal way (i.e., unit weighting. Second, despite the previously reported correlations between self estimates and outcomes, perceived invulnerability was a problem among the youth: Over half of the teens who became pregnant, half of those who were not enrolled in school, and nearly a third of those who were arrested had, one year earlier, indicated a 0% chance of experiencing these outcomes. Finally, adding self estimates of risk to the other risk factor information produced only small gains in predictive accuracy. These analyses point to the need for greater education about the situations and behaviors that lead to negative outcomes.

  4. Cumulative radiation exposure and associated cancer risk estimates for scoliosis patients: Impact of repetitive full spine radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Martin; Ma, Wang-Kei; Lau, Damian; Chan, Eva; Yip, Lawrance; Lam, Wendy

    2016-03-01

    To quantitatively evaluate the cumulative effective dose and associated cancer risk for scoliotic patients undergoing repetitive full spine radiography during their diagnosis and follow up periods. Organ absorbed doses of full spine exposed scoliotic patients at different age were computer simulated with the use of PCXMC software. Gender specific effective dose was then calculated with the ICRP-103 approach. Values of lifetime attributable cancer risk for patients exposed at different age were calculated for both patient genders and for Asian and Western population. Mathematical fitting for effective dose and for lifetime attributable cancer risk, as function of exposed age, was analytically obtained to quantitatively estimate patient cumulated effective dose and cancer risk. The cumulative effective dose of full spine radiography with posteroanterior and lateral projection for patients exposed annually at age between 5 and 30 years using digital radiography system was calculated as 15mSv. The corresponding cumulative lifetime attributable cancer risk for Asian and Western population was calculated as 0.08-0.17%. Female scoliotic patients would be at a statistically significant higher cumulated cancer risk than male patients under the same full spine radiography protocol. We demonstrate the use of computer simulation and analytic formula to quantitatively obtain the cumulated effective dose and cancer risk at any age of exposure, both of which are valuable information to medical personnel and patients' parents concern about radiation safety in repetitive full spine radiography. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  6. Molecular prevalence and estimated risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Libya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Badry, Ayman A; El-Dwibe, Hamida; Basyoni, Maha M A; Al-Antably, Abeer S A; Al-Bashier, Wafaa A

    2017-12-01

    Cutanoeus leishmaniasis (CL) is an endemic disease in the Mediterranean area including Libya. The aim of the present study is to detect the prevalent Leishmania species obtained from smeared cutaneous lesions in addition to studying the diverse sociodemographic risk factors of the reported cases from different provinces of Libya. A total of 250 archived microscopic slides from clinically suspected cases of CL attending the leishmaniasis clinic in the Dermatology Department, Tripoli Central Hospital, Tripoli, Libya, were microscopically examined. Leishmania-DNA was amplified using combined polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting kinetoplast-DNA (kDNA) and ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1)-DNA with restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis for direct Leishmania species identification. Using kDNA and ITS1-PCR, 22.5% and 20% of cases were positive, respectively. Only 14.4% of cases were positive using microscopy. Nominating ITS1-PCR as the reference standard, kDNA-PCR assay was highly sensitive while microscopy was 100% specific but of limited sensitivity (72%) with a substantial agreement and an overall accuracy of 94.4%. Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica were the predominant species reported from the north-western provinces including Tripoli, Zintan, and Gharyan with their related subprovinces; Asabaa, Mizdan, Alkawasem, and Alorban. CL prevailed more among men and residents of rural areas. House wives and students were the most affected professions. Children were the least affected, while the middle-aged were the most affected age group. L. major and L. tropica are the predominant species in the north-western regions of Libya. ITS1-PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism assay offered a sensitive, specific, and faster diagnostic method especially with negative parasitologic examination. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  7. Estimation of Radiation Risks Due To Ingestion of Water in Ogba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    can cause cell death, genetic mutation, cancers, leukemia, birth defects and endocrine system disorders. The aim of this study is to estimate radiation risks due to ingestion of water in Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni Local Government Area of Rivers. State in Nigeria using radiation risk models. Secondary data from radiological ...

  8. Noninvasive Prediction of Erosive Esophagitis Using a Controlled Attenuation Parameter (CAP)-Based Risk Estimation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Hyunsoo; Chon, Young Eun; Kim, Seung Up; Lee, Sang Kil; Jung, Kyu Sik; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Chon, Chae Yoon

    2016-02-01

    Erosive esophagitis and fatty liver share obesity and visceral fat as common critical pathogenesis. However, the relationship between the amount of hepatic fat and the severity of erosive esophagitis was not well investigated, and there is no risk estimation model for erosive esophagitis. To evaluate the relationship between the amount of hepatic fat and the severity of erosive esophagitis and then develop a risk estimation model for erosive esophagitis. We enrolled 1045 consecutive participants (training cohort, n = 705; validation cohort, n = 340) who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy and CAP. The relationship between severity of fatty liver and erosive esophagitis was investigated, and independent predictors for erosive esophagitis that have been investigated through logistic regression analyses were used as components for establishing a risk estimation model. The prevalence of erosive gastritis was 10.7 %, and the severity of erosive esophagitis was positively correlated with the degree of hepatic fatty accumulation (P CAP-based risk estimation model for erosive esophagitis using CAP, Body mass index, and significant alcohol Drinking as constituent variables was established and was dubbed the CBD score (AUROC = 0.819, range 0-11). The high-risk group (CBD score ≥3) showed significantly higher risk of having erosive esophagitis than the low-risk group (CBD score CAP-based risk model for predicting erosive esophagitis.

  9. Insulin sensitivity and mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: There is at present the dearth of information on the possible contribution of insulin resistance to scores obtained from mortality risk estimation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Aim: This study determined the mortality risk scores in patients with T2DM and its relationship with insulin resistance.

  10. Stroke risk estimation across nine European countries in the MORGAM project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borglykke, Anders; Andreasen, Anne H; Kuulasmaa, Kari

    2010-01-01

    Previous tools for stroke risk assessment have either been developed for specific populations or lack data on non-fatal events or uniform data collection. The purpose of this study was to develop a stepwise model for the estimation of 10 year risk of stroke in nine different countries across Europe....

  11. Work-site musculoskeletal pain risk estimates by trained observers – a prospective cohort study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coenen, P.; Kingma, I.; Boot, C.R.; Douwes, M.; Bongers, P.M.; van Dieen, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal pain (MSP) risk assessments by trained observers are often used in ergonomic practice; however, the validity may be questionable. We investigated the predictive value of work-site MSP risk estimates in a prospective cohort study of 1745 workers. Trained observers

  12. Work-site musculoskeletal pain risk estimates by trained observers - a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coenen, P.; Kingma, I.; Boot, C.R.L.; Douwes, M.; Bongers, P.M.; Dieën, J.H. van

    2012-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal pain (MSP) risk assessments by trained observers are often used in ergonomic practice; however, the validity may be questionable. We investigated the predictive value of work-site MSP risk estimates in a prospective cohort study of 1745 workers. Trained observers

  13. Cancer risks in BRCA2 families: estimates for sites other than breast and ovary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asperen, van C.J.; Brohet, R.M.; Meijers-Heijboer, H.; Hoogerbrugge, N.; Verhoef, S; Vasen, HF; Ausems, M.G.; Menko, F.H.; Garcia, E.B. Gomez; Klijn, JG; Hogervorst, FB; Houwelingen, J.C.; Veer, van 't L.J.; Rookus, M.A.; Leeuwen, van F.E.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In BRCA2 mutation carriers, increased risks have been reported for several cancer sites besides breast and ovary. As most of the families included in earlier reports were selected on the basis of multiple breast/ovarian cancer cases, it is possible that risk estimates may differ in

  14. Cancer risks in BRCA2 families: estimates for sites other than breast and ovary.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asperen, C.J. van; Brohet, R.M.; Meijers-Heijboer, E.J.; Hoogerbrugge-van der Linden, N.; Verhoef, S.; Vasen, H.F.; Ausems, M.G.E.M.; Menko, F.H.; Gomez Garcia, E.B.; Klijn, J.G.M.; Hogervorst, F.B.L.; Houwelingen, J.C. van; Veer, L.J. van 't; Rookus, M.A.; Leeuwen, F.E. van

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In BRCA2 mutation carriers, increased risks have been reported for several cancer sites besides breast and ovary. As most of the families included in earlier reports were selected on the basis of multiple breast/ovarian cancer cases, it is possible that risk estimates may differ in

  15. Estimates of radiological risk from a terrorist attack using plutonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durante, Marco; Manti, Lorenzo

    2002-06-01

    The possible use of radioactivity dispersal devices by terrorist groups has been recently reported in the news. In this paper, we discuss the threat of terrorist attacks by plutonium, with particular attention to the dispersal of plutonium by explosion or fire. Doses resulting from inhalation of radioactive aerosol induced by a plutonium explosion or fire are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (the HOTSPOT code) for different meteorological conditions. Ground contamination and resuspension of dust are also considered in the simulations. Our simulations suggest that acute effects from a plutonium dispersal attack are very unlikely. For late stochastic effects, the explosion poses a greater hazard than fire. However, even in the worst-case scenario, the dispersed plutonium would cause relatively few excess cancers (around 80 in a city of 2 million inhabitants) after many years from the explosion, and these excess cancers would remain undetected against the background of cancer fatalities.

  16. Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

    2017-03-01

    In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

  17. Multiple primary tumours: incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricceri Fulvio

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimating the risk of developing subsequent primary tumours in a population is difficult since the occurrence probability is conditioned to the survival probability. Methods We proposed to apply Markov models studying the transition intensities from first to second tumour with the Aalen-Johansen (AJ estimators, as usually done in competing risk models. In a simulation study we applied the proposed method in different settings with constant or varying underlying intensities and applying age standardisation. In addition, we illustrated the method with data on breast cancer from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. Results The simulation study showed that the person-years approach led to a sensibly wider bias than the AJ estimators. The largest bias was observed assuming constantly increasing incidence rates. However, this situation is rather uncommon dealing with subsequent tumours incidence. In 9233 cases with breast cancer occurred in women resident in Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 1998 we observed a significant increased risk of 1.91 for subsequent cancer of corpus uteri, estimated with the age-standardised Aalen-Johansen incidence ratio (AJ-IRstand, and a significant increased risk of 1.29 for cancer possibly related to the radiotherapy of breast cancer. The peak of occurrence of those cancers was observed after 8 years of follow-up. Conclusion The increased risk of a cancer of the corpus uteri, also observed in other studies, is usually interpreted as the common shared risk factors such as low parity, early menarche and late onset of menopause. We also grouped together those cancers possibly associated to a previous local radiotherapy: the cumulative risk at 14 years is still not significant, however the AJ estimators showed a significant risk peak between the eighth and the ninth year. Finally, the proposed approach has been shown to be reliable and informative under several aspects. It allowed for a correct estimation of the

  18. The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchecker, M.; Salvini, G.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Semenzin, E.; Maidl, E.; Marcomini, A.

    2013-11-01

    Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions. The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.

  19. Estimating the risk of re-emergence after stopping polio vaccination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira eSasaki

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Live vaccination against polio has effectively prevented outbreaks in most developed countries for more than 40 years, and there remain only a few countries where outbreaks of poliomyelitis by the wild strain still threaten the community. It is expected that worldwide eradication will be eventually achieved through careful surveillance and a well-managed immunization program. The present paper argues, however, that based on a simple stochastic model the risk of outbreak by a vaccine-derived strain after the cessation of vaccination is quite high, even if many years have passed since the last confirmed case. As vaccinated hosts are natural reservoirs for virulent poliovirus, the source of the risk is the vaccination itself, employed to prevent the outbreaks. The crisis after stopping vaccination will emerge when the following two conditions are met: the susceptible host density exceeds the threshold for epidemics and the vaccinated host density remains large enough to ensure the occurrence of virulent mutants in the population. Our estimates for transmission, recovery, and mutation rates, show that the probability of an outbreak of vaccine-derived virulent viruses easily exceeds 90%. Moreover, if a small fraction of hosts have a longer infectious period, as observed in individuals with innate immunodeficiency, the risk of an outbreak rises significantly. Under such conditions, successful global eradication of polio is restricted to a certain range of parameters even if inactive polio vaccine (IPV is extensively used after the termination of live vaccination.

  20. Estimation of the Forest Fire Risk in Indonesia based on Satellite Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, H.; Takahashi, Y.; Hashimoto, A.; Akita, M.; Hasegawa, Y.; Ogino, Y.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

    2016-12-01

    To minimize forest fires in tropical area is extremely important, because the fire has a large impact on global warming, biodiversity, and human society. In the previous study, Shimada and Ishibashi monitored the ground-water lever from the value of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained in Kalimantan Island to predict where the forest fires will happen. We have developed a method to map the forest fire risk by calculating the value of Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index 2 (MSAVI2). Moreover, we investigated the relation between the distance from a road as an artificial factor and the occurrence of the fire.First, calculating the MSAVI2 from Landsat 7 and 8 images of August, 2015 around Martapura in South Sumatra, Indonesia, we mapped the area where the plants were stressed. Next, we checked the degrees of matching between the area of low MSAVI2 and the forest fire points.As a result, half of the fires happened in the area having the MSAVI2 values of 0.20 to 0.35. When we focused on only the area which is over 5 kilometers far from a road, the degrees of matching became higher; it rose up to 62 percent.Those results indicate that the fire risks relate to the dry area calculated as low MSAVI2 in the case with less human activities. We need to consider an effect of artificial factors to estimate the whole risk of forest fire.In conclusion, the map of forest fire risk by calculating the value of MSAVI2 is applicable to an area with less artificial factor, while we have to take the effect of artificial fire factor into the consideration.

  1. Effective dose estimation during conventional and CT urography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alzimami, K.; Sulieman, A.; Omer, E.; Suliman, I. I.; Alsafi, K.

    2014-11-01

    Intravenous urography (IVU) and CT urography (CTU) are efficient radiological examinations for the evaluation of the urinary system disorders. However patients are exposed to a significant radiation dose. The objectives of this study are to: (i) measure and compare patient radiation dose by computed tomography urography (CTU) and conventional intravenous urography (IVU) and (ii) evaluate organ equivalent dose and cancer risks from CTU and IVU imaging procedures. A total of 141 patients were investigated. A calibrated CT machine (Siemens-Somatom Emotion duo) was used for CTU, while a Shimadzu X ray machine was used for IVU. Thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLD-GR200A) were used to measure patients' entrance surface doses (ESD). TLDs were calibrated under reproducible reference conditions. Patients radiation dose values (DLP) for CTU were 172±61 mGy cm, CTDIvol 4.75±2 mGy and effective dose 2.58±1 mSv. Patient cancer probabilities were estimated to be 1.4 per million per CTU examination. Patients ESDs values for IVU were 21.62±5 mGy, effective dose 1.79±1 mSv. CT involves a higher effective dose than IVU. In this study the radiation dose is considered low compared to previous studies. The effective dose from CTU procedures was 30% higher compared to IVU procedures. Wide dose variation between patient doses suggests that optimization is not fulfilled yet.

  2. Estimation Risk Modeling in Optimal Portfolio Selection: An Empirical Study from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarayut Nathaphan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Efficient portfolio is a portfolio that yields maximum expected return given a level of risk or has a minimum level of risk given a level of expected return. However, the optimal portfolios do not seem to be as efficient as intended. Especially during financial crisis period, optimal portfolio is not an optimal investment as it does not yield maximum return given a specific level of risk, and vice versa. One possible explanation for an unimpressive performance of the seemingly efficient portfolio is incorrectness in parameter estimates called “estimation risk in parameter estimates”. Six different estimating strategies are employed to explore ex-post-portfolio performance when estimation risk is incorporated. These strategies are traditional Mean-Variance (EV, Adjusted Beta (AB approach, Resampled Efficient Frontier (REF, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM, Single Index Model (SIM, and Single Index Model incorporating shrinkage Bayesian factor namely, Bayesian Single Index Model (BSIM. Among the six alternative strategies, shrinkage estimators incorporating the single index model outperform other traditional portfolio selection strategies. Allowing for asset mispricing and applying Bayesian shrinkage adjusted factor to each asset's alpha, a single factor namely, excess market return is adequate in alleviating estimation uncertainty.

  3. Estimation model of life insurance claims risk for cancer patients by using Bayesian method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukono; Suyudi, M.; Islamiyati, F.; Supian, S.

    2017-01-01

    This paper discussed the estimation model of the risk of life insurance claims for cancer patients using Bayesian method. To estimate the risk of the claim, the insurance participant data is grouped into two: the number of policies issued and the number of claims incurred. Model estimation is done using a Bayesian approach method. Further, the estimator model was used to estimate the risk value of life insurance claims each age group for each sex. The estimation results indicate that a large risk premium for insured males aged less than 30 years is 0.85; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:58; for ages 41 to 50 years is 1.71; for ages 51 to 60 years is 2.96; and for those aged over 60 years is 7.82. Meanwhile, for insured women aged less than 30 years was 0:56; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:21; for ages 41 to 50 years is 0.65; for ages 51 to 60 years is 3:12; and for those aged over 60 years is 9.99. This study is useful in determining the risk premium in homogeneous groups based on gender and age.

  4. Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Co-Skewness and Co-Kurtosis Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Fournier, Mathieu; Fournier, Mathieu

    We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return are readily obtained using index option prices. We apply this insight to the price of co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk. The price of co-skewness risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk......-neutral second moments, and the price of co-kurtosis risk corresponds to the spread between the physical and the risk-neutral third moments. The option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An out-of-sample analysis of factor models with co-skewness and co...

  5. Jumps and Betas: A New Framework for Disentangling and Estimating Systematic Risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Todorov, Viktor; Bollerslev, Tim

    We provide a new theoretical framework for disentangling and estimating sensitivity towards systematic diffusive and jump risks in the context of factor pricing models. Our estimates of the sensitivities towards systematic risks, or betas, are based on the notion of increasingly finer sampled...... returns over fixed time intervals. In addition to establish- ing consistency of our estimators, we also derive Central Limit Theorems characterizing their asymptotic distributions. In an empirical application of the new procedures using high-frequency data for forty individual stocks and an aggregate...... market portfolio, we find the estimated diffusive and jump betas with respect to the market to be quite dif- ferent for many of the stocks. Our findings have direct and important implications for empirical asset pricing finance and practical portfolio and risk management decisions....

  6. Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan R. Fischbach

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Modern joint probability methods for estimating storm surge or flood statistics are based on statistical aggregation of many hydrodynamic simulations that can be computationally expensive. Flood risk assessments that consider changing future conditions due to sea level rise or other drivers often require each storm to be run under a range of uncertain scenarios. Evaluating different flood risk mitigation measures, such as levees and floodwalls, in these future scenarios can further increase the computational cost. This study uses the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA to examine tradeoffs between the accuracy of estimated flood depth exceedances and the number and type of storms used to produce the estimates. Inclusion of lower-intensity, higher-frequency storms significantly reduces bias relative to storm suites with a similar number of storms but only containing high-intensity, lower-frequency storms, even when estimating exceedances at very low-frequency return periods.

  7. Estimates of the risk of bladder tumor promotion by saccharin in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaylor, D W; Kadlubar, F F; West, R W

    1988-12-01

    Tumor data from an initiation-promotion bioassay in rats are used to illustrate how urinary bladder tumor risk estimates can be modified to reflect tumor promotion by saccharin. Assuming equal carcinogenic potency in humans and rats, the estimated human risk is equal to the probability of tumors in rats due to saccharin promotion following administration of an initiator times the ratio of the proportion of humans that are initiated to the proportion of initiated rats. The proportion of initiated humans may be somewhere between the proportion of deaths due to bladder cancer in the U.S. population, 0.005, and 1.0. The proportion of initiated animals in the bioassay may be somewhere between the proportion of animals with bladder tumors, 0.41, as observed in an initiated group, and 1.0. Hence, the ratio of the proportion of initiated humans to animals may be between 0.005 and 2.4. Then, the risk of bladder tumors is estimated to be between 0.005 and 2.4 times the estimated risk of tumors in rats promoted by saccharin following administration of an initiator. An upper limit on bladder tumor risk is estimated to be between 0.00038 and 0.18 times the percentage of saccharin in the diet. If a threshold dose exists for saccharin bladder tumor promotion which is above the saccharin consumption level of all humans, then the risk is zero.

  8. Joint Estimation of Cardiac Toxicity and Recurrence Risks After Comprehensive Nodal Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Breast Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stick, Line B., E-mail: line.bjerregaard.stick@regionh.dk [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Niels Bohr Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Yu, Jen [Maryland Proton Treatment Center, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Maraldo, Maja V. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Aznar, Marianne C. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford (United Kingdom); Pedersen, Anders N. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Bentzen, Søren M. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark); Maryland Proton Treatment Center, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Greenebaum Comprehensive Cancer Center and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Vogelius, Ivan R. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2017-03-15

    Purpose: The study aims to perform joint estimation of the risk of recurrence caused by inadequate radiation dose coverage of lymph node targets and the risk of cardiac toxicity caused by radiation exposure to the heart. Delivered photon plans are compared with realistic proton plans, thereby providing evidence-based estimates of the heterogeneity of treatment effects in consecutive cases for the 2 radiation treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Forty-one patients referred for postlumpectomy comprehensive nodal photon irradiation for left-sided breast cancer were included. Comparative proton plans were optimized by a spot scanning technique with single-field optimization from 2 en face beams. Cardiotoxicity risk was estimated with the model of Darby et al, and risk of recurrence following a compromise of lymph node coverage was estimated by a linear dose-response model fitted to the recurrence data from the recently published EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) 22922/10925 and NCIC-CTG (National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group) MA.20 randomized controlled trials. Results: Excess absolute risk of cardiac morbidity was small with photon therapy at an attained age of 80 years, with median values of 1.0% (range, 0.2%-2.9%) and 0.5% (range, 0.03%-1.0%) with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively, but even lower with proton therapy (0.13% [range, 0.02%-0.5%] and 0.06% [range, 0.004%-0.3%], respectively). The median estimated excess absolute risk of breast cancer recurrence after 10 years was 0.10% (range, 0.0%-0.9%) with photons and 0.02% (range, 0.0%-0.07%) with protons. The association between age of the patient and benefit from proton therapy was weak, almost non-existing (Spearman rank correlations of −0.15 and −0.30 with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively). Conclusions: Modern photon therapy yields limited risk of cardiac toxicity in most patients, but proton therapy can reduce the

  9. Epidemiology of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) in Germany from 2003 to 2009: a risk estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönberger, Katharina; Ludwig, Maria-Sabine; Wildner, Manfred; Weissbrich, Benedikt

    2013-01-01

    Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a fatal long-term complication of measles infection. We performed an estimation of the total number of SSPE cases in Germany for the period 2003 to 2009 and calculated the risk of SSPE after an acute measles infection. SSPE cases were collected from the Surveillance Unit for Rare Paediatric Diseases in Germany and the Institute of Virology and Immunobiology at the University of Würzburg. The total number of SSPE cases was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. For the period 2003 to 2009, 31 children with SSPE who were treated at German hospitals were identified. The capture-recapture estimate was 39 cases (95% confidence interval: 29.2-48.0). The risk of developing SSPE for children contracting measles infection below 5 years of age was calculated as 1∶1700 to 1∶3300. This risk is in the same order of magnitude as the risk of a fatal acute measles infection.

  10. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  11. Effect of prior information on noisy Bayesian frequency estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun-Gang; Wang, Yuan-Mei; Yang, Di; Zou, Jian

    2017-11-01

    Quantum frequency estimation under general noise is investigated in the Bayesian parameter estimation approach. To evaluate the accuracy of estimation, the Bayes cost is obtained analytically which can be applied to the common noisy channels, such as the phase-damping channel, the amplitude-damping channel, and the depolarizing channel. The Bayes cost formula clearly shows that the prior information imposes a restriction upon the effect of noise in the estimation process. Three examples of frequency estimations are provided to illustrate the roles of prior probability in the estimation process. It is found that, due to the restriction of prior information on the noise, the estimation accuracy is less sensitive to the noise in the Bayesian approach than that in the Cramér-Rao bound approach. More prior information can help us to use the non-Gaussianity of the noise channel to improve the estimation accuracy in the phase-damping channel.

  12. Joint Estimation of Cardiac Toxicity and Recurrence Risks After Comprehensive Nodal Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Breast Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stick, Line B; Yu, Jen; Maraldo, Maja V

    2017-01-01

    providing evidence-based estimates of the heterogeneity of treatment effects in consecutive cases for the 2 radiation treatment modalities. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Forty-one patients referred for postlumpectomy comprehensive nodal photon irradiation for left-sided breast cancer were included. Comparative...... absolute risk of breast cancer recurrence after 10 years was 0.10% (range, 0.0%-0.9%) with photons and 0.02% (range, 0.0%-0.07%) with protons. The association between age of the patient and benefit from proton therapy was weak, almost non-existing (Spearman rank correlations of -0.15 and -0.......30 with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Modern photon therapy yields limited risk of cardiac toxicity in most patients, but proton therapy can reduce the predicted risk of cardiac toxicity by up to 2.9% and the risk of breast cancer recurrence by 0.9% in individual patients. Predicted...

  13. Reaction Time and Established Risk Factors for Total and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: Comparison of Effect Estimates in the Follow-Up of a Large, UK-Wide, General-Population Based Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Beverly A.; Der, Geoff; Deary, Ian J.; Batty, G. David

    2009-01-01

    Higher cognitive function is associated with faster choice reaction time (CRT), and both are associated with a reduced risk of mortality from all-causes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, comparison of the predictive capacity of CRT, an emerging risk factor, with that for established "classic" risk factors for mortality, such as…

  14. Impact of a financial risk-sharing scheme on budget-impact estimations: a game-theoretic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavious, Arieh; Greenberg, Dan; Hammerman, Ariel; Segev, Ella

    2014-06-01

    As part of the process of updating the National List of Health Services in Israel, health plans (the 'payers') and manufacturers each provide estimates on the expected number of patients that will utilize a new drug. Currently, payers face major financial consequences when actual utilization is higher than the allocated budget. We suggest a risk-sharing model between the two stakeholders; if the actual number of patients exceeds the manufacturer's prediction, the manufacturer will reimburse the payers by a rebate rate of α from the deficit. In case of under-utilization, payers will refund the government at a rate of γ from the surplus budget. Our study objective was to identify the optimal early estimations of both 'players' prior to and after implementation of the risk-sharing scheme. Using a game-theoretic approach, in which both players' statements are considered simultaneously, we examined the impact of risk-sharing within a given range of rebate proportions, on players' early budget estimations. When increasing manufacturer's rebate α to be over 50 %, then manufacturers will announce a larger number, and health plans will announce a lower number of patients than they would without risk sharing, thus substantially decreasing the gap between their estimates. Increasing γ changes players' estimates only slightly. In reaction to applying a substantial risk-sharing rebate α on the manufacturer, both players are expected to adjust their budget estimates toward an optimal equilibrium. Increasing α is a better vehicle for reaching the desired equilibrium rather than increasing γ, as the manufacturer's rebate α substantially influences both players, whereas γ has little effect on the players behavior.

  15. Performance evaluation of sound screening Method for estimating sound Risk in small Workshops of Hamadan city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostam Golmohammadi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: noise pollution has a negative effect on physiological parameters, efficiency and auditory system. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a sound screening method for estimating sound risk in small workshops of Hamadan city. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in 22 plants with more than 20 workers. Noise screening was done using a screening form. Next, noise level was measured at all the plants by SL 4001 sound level meter and regular grid method. Data were analyzed using Pearson’s test and linear regression by SPSS version 16 software. Results: The mean (SD scores of sound pressure level and screening form were 80.12 dB (7.277 and 60.50 (8.964 in the 22 understudy plants, respectively. The average measured workshop area and volume were 1448 and 10300, respectively. Pearson’s test revealed a significant relationship between the results of the two methods, (P > 0.046. Also the percentage of workers at risk (greater than 85 dB was 32.29 and the percentage of workers within safe limit (less than 85 dB was 63.3. While the largest percentage of workers in the caution zone (82 dB was 67.04. conclusions: A correlation was shown between the results of the two methods. The use of this method to identify workshops with the possibility of noise pollution is effective.

  16. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  17. Geostatistical risk estimation at waste disposal sites in the presence of hot spots

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komnitsas, Kostas, E-mail: komni@mred.tuc.gr [Technical University Crete, Department of Mineral Resources Engineering, Chania 73100 (Greece); Modis, Kostas [National Technical University Athens, School of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, Zografos 15780 (Greece)

    2009-05-30

    The present paper aims to estimate risk by using geostatistics at the wider coal mining/waste disposal site of Belkovskaya, Tula region, in Russia. In this area the presence of hot spots causes a spatial trend in the mean value of the random field and a non-Gaussian data distribution. Prior to application of geostatistics, subtraction of trend and appropriate smoothing and transformation of the data into a Gaussian form were carried out; risk maps were then generated for the wider study area in order to assess the probability of exceeding risk thresholds. Finally, the present paper discusses the need for homogenization of soil risk thresholds regarding hazardous elements that will enhance reliability of risk estimation and enable application of appropriate rehabilitation actions in contaminated areas.

  18. Mobile Applications for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Estimation: a Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fijacko, Nino; Brzan, Petra Povalej; Stiglic, Gregor

    2015-10-01

    Screening for chronical diseases like type 2 diabetes can be done using different methods and various risk tests. This study present a review of type 2 diabetes risk estimation mobile applications focusing on their functionality and availability of information on the underlying risk calculators. Only 9 out of 31 reviewed mobile applications, featured in three major mobile application stores, disclosed the name of risk calculator used for assessing the risk of type 2 diabetes. Even more concerning, none of the reviewed applications mentioned that they are collecting the data from users to improve the performance of their risk estimation calculators or offer users the descriptive statistics of the results from users that already used the application. For that purpose the questionnaires used for calculation of risk should be upgraded by including the information on the most recent blood sugar level measurements from users. Although mobile applications represent a great future potential for health applications, developers still do not put enough emphasis on informing the user of the underlying methods used to estimate the risk for a specific clinical condition.

  19. Environmental effects, heritability estimates and genetic trends

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1997-09-01

    Sep 1, 1997 ... Keywords: Dohne Merino, genetic trends, live weight, wool traits, yearling per- ..... The regression of yearling live weight on birth date approached significance (p ... The addition of random effects apart from maternal per-.

  20. A spatially explicit model for estimating risks of pesticide exposure on bird populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Product Description (FY17 Key Product): Current ecological risk assessment for pesticides under FIFRA relies on risk quotients (RQs), which suffer from significant methodological shortcomings. For example, RQs do not integrate adverse effects arising from multiple demographic pr...

  1. The Web system for coronary disease risk estimation by logistic regression (“CHD risk”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ines Drenjančević-Perić

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Aim Coronary and heart diseases (CHD represent one of thegreatest medical problems in the developed world. To facilitatethe CHD probability estimation procedure, as well as to speed upthe procedure of making and issuing patient’s final diagnosis, wedeveloped the Risk estimation application (‘’CHD Risk’’.Methods Risk estimation is based upon a multivariate analysis ofstatistical data by using logistic regression as a method for probabilityestimation. The method estimates how the final outcome isinfluenced by every single factor. Risk factors represent independentvariables of the model, while a coronary disease risk indicatoris dependent variable.Results The ‘’CHD Risk” was tested for three cases and showedapplication credibility. The system provides coronary disease riskprobability estimation for the given risk factor values, as well asadvice for factors whose values exceed the range of normal values.The system allows input of additional statistical data, whichimproves its learning properties.Conclusions Although the “CHD Risk” system can neither makefinal decisions nor replace the medical professionals themselves, itfulfills the aim to develop the web based tool to help the physiciansto monitor their patients’ health condition, as well as to suggestpreventive measures and therapy.

  2. Risk of Venous Thromboembolism in Patients by Albuminuria and Estimated GFR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massicotte-Azarniouch, David; Bader Eddeen, Anan; LazoLanger, Alejandro; Molnar, Amber O; Lam, Ngan N; McCallum, Megan K; Bota, Sarah; Zimmerman, Deborah; Garg, Amit X; Harel, Ziv; Perl, Jeffery; Wald, Ron; Sood, Manish M

    2017-12-01

    The risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE) is elevated with albuminuria or a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). However, the VTE risk due to the combined effects of eGFR and albuminuria are unknown. Population-based cohort study. 694,956 adults in Ontario, Canada, from 2002 to 2012. eGFR and albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR). VTE. 15,180 (2.2%) VTE events occurred during the study period. Both albuminuria and eGFR were independently associated with VTE. The association of albuminuria and VTE differed by level of eGFR (P for ACR × eGFR interaction 90mL/min/1.73m 2 ) and heavy albuminuria (ACR>300mg/g) compared with those with normal eGFRs and no albuminuria (subdistribution HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.38-1.89). Among those with reduced kidney function (eGFR, 15-29mL/min/1.73m 2 ), the risk for VTE was only minimally increased, irrespective of albuminuria (subdistribution HRs of 1.23 [95% CI, 1-1.5] and 1.09 [95% CI, 0.82-1.45] for ACR300mg/g, respectively). Only single determinations of ACR and eGFR were used. Diagnostic/International Classification of Diseases codes were used to define VTE. Albuminuria increases the risk for VTE markedly in patients with normal eGFRs compared with those with lower eGFRs. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimation of transient increases in bleeding risk associated with physical activity in children with haemophilia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Latimer Jane

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although it is widely appreciated that vigorous physical activity can increase the risk of bleeding episodes in children with haemophilia, the magnitude of the increase in risk is not known. Accurate risk estimates could inform decisions made by children with haemophilia and their parents about participation in physical activity and aid the development of optimal prophylactic schedules. The aim of this study is to provide an accurate estimate of the risks of bleeding associated with vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia. Methods/Design The study will be a case-crossover study nested within a prospective cohort study. Children with moderate or severe haemophilia A or B, recruited from two paediatric haematology departments in Australia, will participate in the study. The child, or the child's parent or guardian, will report bleeding episodes experienced over a 12-month period. Following a bleeding episode, the participant will be interviewed by telephone about exposures to physical activity in the case period (8 hours before the bleed and 2 control periods (an 8 hour period at the same time on the day preceding the bleed and an 8 hour period two days preceding the bleed. Conditional logistic regression will be used to estimate the risk of participating in vigorous physical activity from measures of exposure to physical activity in the case and control periods. Discussion This case-control study will provide estimates of the risk of participation in vigorous physical activity in children with haemophilia.

  4. Estimation of population dose and risk to holding assistants from veterinary X-ray examination in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hashizume, Tadashi; Suganuma, Tunenori; Shida, Takuo (Azabu Univ., Kanagawa (Japan). School of Veterinary Medicine)

    1989-09-01

    For the estimation of the population doses and risks of stochastic effects to assistants who hold animals during veterinary X-ray examination, a random survey of hospitals and clinics was carried out concerning age distribution of such assistants by groups of facilities. The average organ and tissue dose per examination was evaluated from the experimental data using mean technical factors such as X-ray tube voltage, tube current and field size based on the results of a nationwide survey. The population doses to the assistants were calculated to be about 14 nSv per person per year for the genetically significant dose, 3.5 nSv per person per year for per caput mean marrow dose, 3.3 nSv for the leukemia significant dose and 4.5 nSv for the malignant significant dose, respectively. The total risk of stochastic effects to the Japanese population from holding assistants was estimated using population data and it was estimated to be less than one person per year, but the cancer risks to a number of the assistants were estimated to be more than 4 x 10{sup -5}. (author).

  5. Relationship between sarcopenic obesity and cardiovascular disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jeong-Hyeon; Cho, Jung Jin; Park, Yong Soon

    2015-03-01

    This study was conducted to assess the association between sarcopenic obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in Korean adults (n=3,320; ≥40 yr) who participated in the 5th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in 2010. The appendicular skeletal muscle mass divided by body weight was calculated for each participant; participants with values obesity (i.e., body mass index ≥25 kg/m(2)) and sarcopenic status. Individuals' 10-yr CVD risk was determined using the Framingham risk model. The sarcopenic obese group had more participants (43.8% men, 14.6% women) with a high risk of CVD (≥20%). The sarcopenic obese group was associated with an increased 10-yr CVD risk than the non-sarcopenic, non-obese group (odds ratio [OR], 2.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.53-4.06, Pobese and non-sarcopenic obese subjects were not associated with an increased 10-yr CVD risk. Sarcopenic obesity, but not non-sarcopenic obesity, was closely associated with an increased CVD risk in Korean adults.

  6. Estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria in Korean population evaluated for cardiovascular risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kayoung; Kim, Jinseung

    2016-05-01

    This study's purpose was to examine established cardiovascular risk prediction model scores for their associations with albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in Korean population. We calculated the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk estimated score, Korean coronary heart disease risk prediction score (KRS), and the Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III risk score for 9733 South Koreans, aged 40-79 years, who were not diagnosed with stroke, angina pectoris, or myocardial ischemia using data from the 2011-2013 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The associations between cardiovascular risk model scores and the urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) and eGFR tended to be stronger for the ASCVD risk score than for the other risk scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for increased albuminuria (UACR ≥ 30 mg/g) and decreased eGFR (albuminuria in women). The ASCVD risk score had a stronger relationship with and better predicted albuminuria and eGFR than did the KRS and ATP III risk score.

  7. Cable Overheating Risk Warning Method Based on Impedance Parameter Estimation in Distribution Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhang; Xiaohui, Song; Jianfang, Li; Fei, Gao

    2017-05-01

    Cable overheating will lead to the cable insulation level reducing, speed up the cable insulation aging, even easy to cause short circuit faults. Cable overheating risk identification and warning is nessesary for distribution network operators. Cable overheating risk warning method based on impedance parameter estimation is proposed in the paper to improve the safty and reliability operation of distribution network. Firstly, cable impedance estimation model is established by using least square method based on the data from distribiton SCADA system to improve the impedance parameter estimation accuracy. Secondly, calculate the threshold value of cable impedance based on the historical data and the forecast value of cable impedance based on the forecasting data in future from distribiton SCADA system. Thirdly, establish risks warning rules library of cable overheating, calculate the cable impedance forecast value and analysis the change rate of impedance, and then warn the overheating risk of cable line based on the overheating risk warning rules library according to the variation relationship between impedance and line temperature rise. Overheating risk warning method is simulated in the paper. The simulation results shows that the method can identify the imedance and forecast the temperature rise of cable line in distribution network accurately. The result of overheating risk warning can provide decision basis for operation maintenance and repair.

  8. A METHOD FOR THE ESTIMATION OF TSUNAMI RISK ALONG RUSSIA’s FAR EAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.V. Shevchenko

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A simplified method was developed for estimating the tsunami risk for a coast for possible events having recurrence periods of 50 and 100 years. The method is based on readily available seismic data and the calculation of magnitudes of events with specified return periods. A classical Gumbel statistical method was used to estimate magnitudes of small probability events. The tsunami numerical modeling study used the average earthquake coordinates in the Kuril-Kamchatka high- seismic area. The verification and testing of the method were carried out using events from the North, Middle and South Kuril Islands – the most tsunami-risk areas of Russia’s Far East. Also, the study used the regional Kuril-Kamchatka catalogue of earthquakes from 1900 to 2008 - which included earthquakes with magnitudes of at least M=6. The results of the study indicate that the proposed methodology provides reasonable estimates of tsunami risk.

  9. River System Behaviour Effects on Flood Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweckendiek, T.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Van Mierlo, M.C.L.M.; Calle, E.O.F.; Courage, W.M.G.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based safety approach is indispensable to support decision-making on flood protection strategies and measures. Hitherto the effects of river system behaviour on flood risk have usually been neglected. River system behaviour refers to the fact that the flood risk (or safety) of a particular

  10. Estimating the pollution risk of cadmium in soil using a composite soil environmental quality standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Mingkai; Li, Weidong; Zhang, Chuanrong; Huang, Biao; Zhao, Yongcun

    2014-01-01

    Estimating standard-exceeding probabilities of toxic metals in soil is crucial for environmental evaluation. Because soil pH and land use types have strong effects on the bioavailability of trace metals in soil, they were taken into account by some environmental protection agencies in making composite soil environmental quality standards (SEQSs) that contain multiple metal thresholds under different pH and land use conditions. This study proposed a method for estimating the standard-exceeding probability map of soil cadmium using a composite SEQS. The spatial variability and uncertainty of soil pH and site-specific land use type were incorporated through simulated realizations by sequential Gaussian simulation. A case study was conducted using a sample data set from a 150 km(2) area in Wuhan City and the composite SEQS for cadmium, recently set by the State Environmental Protection Administration of China. The method may be useful for evaluating the pollution risks of trace metals in soil with composite SEQSs.

  11. Estimating the Influence of Oil and Gas Emissions on Urban Ozone and Associated Health Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capps, S.; Nsanzineza, R.; Turner, M. D.; Henze, D. K.; Zhao, S.; Russell, M. G.; Hakami, A.; Milford, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) degrades air quality, impacting human health and public welfare. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) is designed to limit these impacts, but certain areas in the continental U.S. exceed this standard. Mitigating O3 NAAQS exceedances by designing emissions controls can be complicated in urban areas because of the long-range transport of ozone and its gaseous precursors as well as the complex mix of local emissions sources. Recent growth of unconventional oil and gas development near urban areas in Colorado, Texas, and the northeastern corridor has exacerbated this problem. To estimate the contribution of emissions from oil and gas development to urban O3 issues, we apply the CMAQ adjoint, which efficiently elucidates the relative influence of emissions sources on select concentration-based metrics. Specifically, the adjoint is used to calculate the spatially-specific relative contributions of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) throughout the continental U.S. to O3 NAAQS exceedances and to ozone-related health risks in select urban areas. By evaluating these influences for different urban areas, including one in California that has been managing air quality with adjacent oil and gas development for a longer period of time, we are able to compare and contrast the emissions control strategies that may be more effective in particular regions. Additionally, the resulting relationships between emissions and concentrations provide a way to project ozone impacts when measurements provide refined estimates of emissions from this sector.

  12. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  13. Receiver operating characteristic curve estimation for time to event with semicompeting risks and interval censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène; Blanche, Paul; Chary, Emilie; Touraine, Célia; Dartigues, Jean-François

    2016-12-01

    Semicompeting risks and interval censoring are frequent in medical studies, for instance when a disease may be diagnosed only at times of visit and disease onset is in competition with death. To evaluate the ability of markers to predict disease onset in this context, estimators of discrimination measures must account for these two issues. In recent years, methods for estimating the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve and the associated area under the ROC curve have been extended to account for right censored data and competing risks. In this paper, we show how an approximation allows to use the inverse probability of censoring weighting estimator for semicompeting events with interval censored data. Then, using an illness-death model, we propose two model-based estimators allowing to rigorously handle these issues. The first estimator is fully model based whereas the second one only uses the model to impute missing observations due to censoring. A simulation study shows that the bias for inverse probability of censoring weighting remains modest and may be less than the one of the two parametric estimators when the model is misspecified. We finally recommend the nonparametric inverse probability of censoring weighting estimator as main analysis and the imputation estimator based on the illness-death model as sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2014.

  14. A bivariate ordered probit estimator with mixed effects

    OpenAIRE

    Buscha, Franz; Conte, Anna

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we discuss the derivation and application of a bivariate ordered probit model with mixed effects. Our approach allows one to estimate the distribution of the effect (gamma) of an endogenous ordered variable on an ordered explanatory variable. By allowing gamma to vary over the population, our estimator offers a more flexible parametric setting to recover the causal effect of an endogenous variable in an ordered choice setting. We use Monte Carlo simulations to examine the perfo...

  15. Multivariable Mendelian randomization: the use of pleiotropic genetic variants to estimate causal effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G

    2015-02-15

    A conventional Mendelian randomization analysis assesses the causal effect of a risk factor on an outcome by using genetic variants that are solely associated with the risk factor of interest as instrumental variables. However, in some cases, such as the case of triglyceride level as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, it may be difficult to find a relevant genetic variant that is not also associated with related risk factors, such as other lipid fractions. Such a variant is known as pleiotropic. In this paper, we propose an extension of Mendelian randomization that uses multiple genetic variants associated with several measured risk factors to simultaneously estimate the causal effect of each of the risk factors on the outcome. This "multivariable Mendelian randomization" approach is similar to the simultaneous assessment of several treatments in a factorial randomized trial. In this paper, methods for estimating the causal effects are presented and compared using real and simulated data, and the assumptions necessary for a valid multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis are discussed. Subject to these assumptions, we demonstrate that triglyceride-related pathways have a causal effect on the risk of coronary heart disease independent of the effects of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

  16. Obesity phenotype and coronary heart disease risk as estimated by the Framingham risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Jun-Su

    2012-03-01

    There are conflicting data as to whether general or abdominal obesity is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk. This cross-sectional study involved 4,573 subjects aged 30 to 74 yr who participated in the Fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in 2008. Obesity phenotype was classified by means of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), and participants were categorized into 4 groups. Individuals' 10-yr risk of coronary heart diseases (CHD) was determined from the Framingham risk score. Subjects with obese WC had a higher proportion of high risk for CHD compared to the normal WC group, irrespective of BMI level. Relative to subjects with normal BMI/normal WC, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of normal BMI/obese WC group (OR 2.93 [1.70, 5.04] and OR 3.10 [1.49, 6.46]) for CHD risk in male were higher than obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.91 [1.40, 2.61] and OR 1.70 [1.16, 2.47]), whereas the adjusted ORs of obese BMI/obese WC group (OR 1.94 [1.24, 3.04] and OR 3.92 [1.75, 8.78]) were higher than the others in female. Subjects with obese BMI/normal WC were not significantly associated with 10-yr CHD risk in men (P = 0.449 and P = 0.067) and women (P = 0.702 and P = 0.658). WC is associated with increased CHD risk regardless of the level of BMI. Men with normal BMI and obese WC tend to be associated with CHD risk than those with obese BMI and obese WC.

  17. Estimated size of the population at risk of severe adverse events after smallpox vaccination in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Yael; Anis, Emilia; Kaliner, Ehud; Grotto, Itamar; Danon, Yehuda L

    2012-10-19

    The population at risk of adverse events after smallpox vaccination has increased in recent years. This has important implications for preparedness strategies against bioterrorism with the variola virus. The aim of the study was to estimate the size of this special population in Israel. The study was conducted in January 2010. Data on patients with contraindications to smallpox vaccination, as delineated by the Israel Ministry of Health for planning post-event strategies, were retrieved from the computerized records of the Department of AIDS and Tuberculosis and the Transplantation Center of the Israel Ministry of Health. In addition, the database of the main Health Maintenance Organization in Israel which insures 60% of the national population was searched using ICD-9 codes and specific medications issued in the last quarter of 2009. Of the 7,563,800 persons residing in Israel in January 2010, 326,318 were at risk of an adverse event after smallpox vaccination. Approximately 4.3% of the Israeli population should not be exposed to the currently used smallpox vaccine. This knowledge is important to ensure the effectiveness of mass vaccination programs in the event of a bioterror attack. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. High resolution estimates of the corrosion risk for cultural heritage in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Marco, Alessandra; Screpanti, Augusto; Mircea, Mihaela; Piersanti, Antonio; Proietti, Chiara; Fornasier, M Francesca

    2017-07-01

    Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of many materials used in buildings and cultural monuments causing an inestimable damage. This study aims to estimate the impacts of air pollution (SO 2 , HNO 3 , O 3 , PM 10 ) and meteorological conditions (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) on limestone, copper and bronze based on high resolution air quality data-base produced with AMS-MINNI modelling system over the Italian territory over the time period 2003-2010. A comparison between high resolution data (AMS-MINNI grid, 4 × 4 km) and low resolution data (EMEP grid, 50 × 50 km) has been performed. Our results pointed out that the corrosion levels for limestone, copper and bronze are decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010 in relation to decrease of pollutant concentrations. However, some problem related to air pollution persists especially in Northern and Southern Italy. In particular, PM 10 and HNO 3 are considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion. Moreover, the high resolution data (AMS-MINNI) allowed the identification of risk areas that are not visible with the low resolution data (EMEP modelling system) in all considered years and, especially, in the limestone case. Consequently, high resolution air quality simulations are suitable to provide concrete benefits in providing information for national effective policy against corrosion risk for cultural heritage, also in the context of climate changes that are affecting strongly Mediterranean basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

    2014-02-15

    Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load

  20. Risk Reducing Effect of AIS Implementation on Collision Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2003-01-01

    , as a result, the community will undoubtedly observe an increase in navigational safety. However, to the authors? knowledge, no study has so far rigorously quantified the risk reducing effect of using AIS as an integrated part of the navigational system. The objective of this study is to fill this gap....... The risk reducing effect of AIS is quantified by building a Bayesian network facilitating an evaluation of the effect of AIS on the navigational officer?s reaction ability in a potential, critical collision situation. The time-dependent change in the risk reducing effect on ship collisions is analysed...... during the implementation phase until the full enforcement of AIS in July 2008. The evaluation is performed for vessels navigating in world-wide operational routes. Furthermore, two different bridge systems are compared, a conventional bridge and a bridge equipped for solo watch keeping. It is found...

  1. RiD: A New Approach to Estimate the Insolvency Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Aurélio dos Santos Sanfins

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Given the recent international crises and the increasing number of defaults, several researchers have attempted to develop metrics that calculate the probability of insolvency with higher accuracy. The approaches commonly used, however, do not consider the credit risk nor the severity of the distance between receivables and obligations among different periods. In this paper we mathematically present an approach that allow us to estimate the insolvency risk by considering not only future receivables and obligations, but the severity of the distance between them and the quality of the respective receivables. Using Monte Carlo simulations and hypothetical examples, we show that our metric is able to estimate the insolvency risk with high accuracy. Moreover, our results suggest that in the absence of a smooth distribution between receivables and obligations, there is a non-null insolvency risk even when the present value of receivables is larger than the present value of the obligations.

  2. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jia; Hong, Bei; Jiang, Xuepeng; Chen, Qinghua

    2017-05-01

    With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  3. Research on the method of information system risk state estimation based on clustering particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui Jia

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available With the purpose of reinforcing correlation analysis of risk assessment threat factors, a dynamic assessment method of safety risks based on particle filtering is proposed, which takes threat analysis as the core. Based on the risk assessment standards, the method selects threat indicates, applies a particle filtering algorithm to calculate influencing weight of threat indications, and confirms information system risk levels by combining with state estimation theory. In order to improve the calculating efficiency of the particle filtering algorithm, the k-means cluster algorithm is introduced to the particle filtering algorithm. By clustering all particles, the author regards centroid as the representative to operate, so as to reduce calculated amount. The empirical experience indicates that the method can embody the relation of mutual dependence and influence in risk elements reasonably. Under the circumstance of limited information, it provides the scientific basis on fabricating a risk management control strategy.

  4. The problematic estimation of "imitation effects" in multilevel models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available It seems plausible that a person's demographic behaviour may be influenced by that among other people in the community, for example because of an inclination to imitate. When estimating multilevel models from clustered individual data, some investigators might perhaps feel tempted to try to capture this effect by simply including on the right-hand side the average of the dependent variable, constructed by aggregation within the clusters. However, such modelling must be avoided. According to simulation experiments based on real fertility data from India, the estimated effect of this obviously endogenous variable can be very different from the true effect. Also the other community effect estimates can be strongly biased. An "imitation effect" can only be estimated under very special assumptions that in practice will be hard to defend.

  5. Exposure Estimation for Risk Assessment of the Phthalate Incident in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu-Chih Chen

    Full Text Available In May 2011, di(2-ethylhexyl phthalates (DEHP and, to a lesser extent, di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP were found to have been illegally used for many years in Taiwan as clouding agents in foods including sports drinks, juice beverages, tea drinks, fruit jam/nectar/jelly, and health or nutrient supplements.To estimate the DEHP exposure for the study participants for the follow-up epidemiological study and health risk assessment.A total of 347 individuals possibly highly exposed to phthalate-tainted foods participated in the study. Exposure assessment was performed based on the participants' responses to a structured questionnaire, self-report of exposure history, urinary metabolite concentrations, and DEHP concentration information in 2449 food records. A Bayesian statistical approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was employed to deal with the uncertainties in the DEHP concentrations of the contaminated foods and the participants' likelihood of being exposed.An estimated 37% and 15% of children younger than 12 years old were exposed to DEHP at medium (20-50 μg / kg_bw / day and high AvDIs (50-100 μg / kg_bw / day, respectively, prior to the episode (9% and 3% in adults, respectively. Moreover, 11% of children and 1% of adults were highly exposed (> 100 μg / kg_bw / day, with a maximum of 414.1 μg / kg_bw / day and 126.4 μg / kg_bw / day, respectively.The phthalate exposure-associated adverse health effects for these participants warrant further investigation. The estimation procedure may be applied to other exposure assessment with various sources of uncertainties.

  6. Estimates of genetic parameters and effect of inbreeding on milk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of inbreeding on the 305-d yields of milk, fat and protein, and the percentages of fat and protein in the first three lactations was estimated using records on the South African Jersey cows that participated in the National Dairy Animal Improvement Scheme. Inbreeding coefficients were estimated using the entire ...

  7. MCNPX dosimetry and radiation-induced cancer risk estimation from {sup 18}F-FDG pediatric PET at Brazilian population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendes, Bruno M.; Fonseca, Telma C.F. [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Campos, Tarcisio P.R., E-mail: bmm@cdtn.br, E-mail: tcff@cdtn.br, E-mail: tprcampos@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (PCTN/UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciências e Técnicas Nucleares

    2017-07-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) using {sup 18}F-FDG has increased significantly in pediatric patients. PET with {sup 18}F-FDG has often been applied in oncology. Cancer induction is one of the main stochastic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation of {sup 18}F-FDG. Radiation-induced cancer risk estimation due to medical exposures is an important tool for risk/benefit assessing. The objective was to perform dosimetry and estimate the risk of cancer induction due to pediatric use of {sup 18}F-FDG. MCNPX Computational dosimetry was performed to estimate organ absorbed doses resulting from {sup 18}F-FDG pediatric use. Two voxelized phantoms, kindly provided by the GSF - Helmholtz Zentrum, were used: 'Child' - 7 years child and 'Baby' 8-week-old infant. ICRP-128 publication provided the radiopharmaceutical biodistribution of F-18. Tables containing organ absorbed dose and effective dose per unit of injected activity for the two phantoms were obtained. The injected activities were estimated according to data provided in the literature. Images of the absorbed dose distribution were generated from both models. The BEIR VII methodology was used to calculate the risk of cancer induction. The risk of cancer induction (per imaging procedure) for the seven-year-old child was (0.09% ♂ and 0.15% ♀) and for the eight-week old baby was (0.11% ♂ and 0.21% ♀). The {sup 18}F-FDG absorbed dose distribution in the children and infants showed some divergences in comparison to adult data. Probably, the biokinetic data used to children and infants is the main reason for this disconnection. (author)

  8. Estimation of the value-at-risk parameter: Econometric analysis and the extreme value theory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Zorica

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper different aspects of value-at-risk estimation are considered. Daily returns of CISCO, INTEL and NASDAQ stock indices are analyzed for period: September 1996 - September 2006. Methods that incorporate time varying variability and heavy tails of the empirical distributions of returns are implemented. The main finding of the paper is that standard econometric methods underestimate the value-at-risk parameter if heavy tails of the empirical distribution are not explicitly taken into account. .

  9. Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Arrighi

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The adoption of 2007/60/EC Directive requires European countries to implement flood hazard and flood risk maps by the end of 2013. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. The route to flood risk assessment is consequently much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. A parsimonious quasi-2-D hydraulic model is here adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. It is here evaluated as being accurate in flood depth estimation in urban areas with a high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM. The accuracy, estimated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence, is characterized in the downtown's most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 € m−2 yr−1, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents' income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the building characteristics. As a final example application, the estimated risk values have been used to compare different retrofitting measures. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This is based on the georeferenced census system as the optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of the risk spatial variability, and they can be easily aggregated to whatever upper scale is needed given that they are geographically defined as contiguous polygons. Damage is calculated through stage–damage curves, starting from census data on building type and

  10. A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

  11. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Anne

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". Methods Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25–64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as US$ per capita per year. Results 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%. Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg or treatment of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (≥6.2 mmol/l; 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (2 and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to US $45.6, i.e. $11.2 for high blood pressure, $3.8 for diabetes, and $30.6 for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia. Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to $22.6. Conclusion High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

  12. Numerical estimation of the effects of climatic variations on human ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    temperature, humidity, solar radiation and wind speed) are used to develop a numerical model for estimating the effect of climatic changes on human thermal comfort in Botswana. Numerical values of energy load for four different comfort classes were ...

  13. EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT IN MODERN INDUSTRIAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    for effective risk management, repudiating a unilateral decision by the management, but integrating the .... Story, it has always been condemnable and. Okereke, C. I. – Effective Risk Management in Modern Industrial Organizations in Nigeria .... negatively affected indigenous enterprises. Foreign technicians are preferred to ...

  14. An evaluation of clinical risk factors for estimating fracture risk in postmenopausal osteoporosis using an electronic medical record database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unni, S; Yao, Y; Milne, N; Gunning, K; Curtis, J R; LaFleur, J

    2015-02-01

    Many of the clinical risk factors used in fracture risk assessment (FRAX) calculator are available in electronic medical record (EMR) databases and are good sources of osteoporosis risk factor information. The EPIC EMR database showed a lower prevalence of FRAX risk factors and, consequently, proportion of patients who would be deemed "high risk." The FRAX tool is underutilized for osteoporosis screening. Many of the clinical risk factors for FRAX may be available in EMR databases and may enable health systems to perform fracture risk assessments. We intended to identify variables in an EMR database for calculating FRAX score in a cohort of postmenopausal women, to estimate absolute fracture risk, and to determine the proportions of women whose absolute fracture risks exceed the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) thresholds. Our cohort was selected using an EMR database with demographic, inpatient, outpatient, and clinical information for female patients age≥50 in a family practice, internal medicine, or obstetrics/gynecology clinic in 2007-2008. The latest physician encounter was the index date. Variables, problem and medication lists, diagnosis codes, and histories from the EMR were used to populate the 11 clinical risk factor variables used in the FRAX. These risk factor prevalence and treatment-eligible proportions were compared to those of published epidemiology studies. The study included 345 patients. Mean (SD) 10-year risk for any major fracture was 11.1% (6.8) when bone mineral density (BMD) was used and 11.2% (6.5) when BMI was used. About 10.1% of the cohort exceeded the NOF's 20% major fracture risk threshold and 32.5% exceeded the NOF's 3% hip fracture risk threshold when BMD was used. Overall, the number of treatment-eligible patients was slightly lower when FRAX was calculated using BMD versus BMI (13.6 and 36.8%). Our cohort using EMR data most likely underestimated the mean 10-year probability of any major fracture compared to other cohorts

  15. Are risk estimates biased in follow-up studies of psychosocial factors with low base-line participation?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaerlev, Linda; Kolstad, Henrik; Hansen, Åse Marie

    2011-01-01

    Low participation in population-based follow-up studies addressing psychosocial risk factors may cause biased estimation of health risk but the issue has seldom been examined. We compared risk estimates for selected health outcomes among respondents and the entire source population....

  16. Identifying patient preferences for communicating risk estimates: A descriptive pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Connor Annette M

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients increasingly seek more active involvement in health care decisions, but little is known about how to communicate complex risk information to patients. The objective of this study was to elicit patient preferences for the presentation and framing of complex risk information. Method To accomplish this, eight focus group discussions and 15 one-on-one interviews were conducted, where women were presented with risk data in a variety of different graphical formats, metrics, and time horizons. Risk data were based on a hypothetical woman's risk for coronary heart disease, hip fracture, and breast cancer, with and without hormone replacement therapy. Participants' preferences were assessed using likert scales, ranking, and abstractions of focus group discussions. Results Forty peri- and postmenopausal women were recruited through hospital fliers (n = 25 and a community health fair (n = 15. Mean age was 51 years, 50% were non-Caucasian, and all had completed high school. Bar graphs were preferred by 83% of participants over line graphs, thermometer graphs, 100 representative faces, and survival curves. Lifetime risk estimates were preferred over 10 or 20-year horizons, and absolute risks were preferred over relative risks and number needed to treat. Conclusion Although there are many different formats for presenting and framing risk information, simple bar charts depicting absolute lifetime risk were rated and ranked highest overall for patient preferences for format.

  17. An empirical method for estimating future flood risks for flood warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Hlavcova

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Since medium and long-term precipitation forecasts are still not reliable enough, rough estimates of the degree of the extremity of forthcoming flood events that might occur in the course of dangerous meteorological situations approaching a basin could be useful to decision-makers as additional information for flood warnings. One approach to answering such a problem is to use real-time data on the soil moisture conditions in a catchment in conjunction with estimates of the extremity of the future rainfall and experience with the basin's behaviour during historical floods. A scenario-based method is proposed for such a future flood risk estimation, based on an a priori evaluation of the extremity of hypothetical floods generated by combinations of synthetic extreme precipitation and previously observed antecedent pre-flood basin saturations. The Hron river basin, located in central Slovakia, was chosen as the pilot basin in the case study. A time series of the basin's average daily precipitation was derived using spatial interpolation techniques. A lumped HBV-type daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model was adopted for modelling runoff. Analysis of the relationship of the modelled historical pre-flood soil moisture and flood causing-precipitation revealed the independence of both quantities for rainfall durations lasting 1 to 5 days. The basin's average annual maximum 1 to 5 day precipitation depths were analysed statistically and synthetic extreme precipitation scenarios associated with rainfall depths with return periods of 5, 20, 50 and 100 years, durations of 1 to 5 days and temporal distribution of extreme rainfall observed in the past were set up for runoff simulation. Using event-based flood simulations, synthetic flood waves were generated for random combinations of the rainfall scenarios and historical pre-flood soil moisture conditions. The effect of any antecedent basin saturation on the extremity of floods was quantified empirically

  18. Hygienic estimation of occupational risk and substantiation of regulations on Orvego Fungicide safe application in agricultural sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilous S.V.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Hygienic evaluation of labour conditions during Orvego pesticide application on grapes and onion was carried out and content of ametoctradin and dimethomorp in the working zone air, atmospheric air, and the soil was studied. The findings allow to substantiate ametoctradin hygienic standards in the working zone air, atmospheric air, and the soil and to elaborate regulations of Orvego pesticide safe application in agriculture. Estimation of complex risk of ametoctradin and dimethomorp effects via different routes of exposure during airblast and boom spraying treatment showed that the values of the risks were within the ranges of allowable (<1. Values of combined risk during simultaneous effect of the both active ingredients do not exceed allowable level (<1 either.

  19. A case-control study estimating accident risk for alcohol, medicines and illegal drugs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Paula Colette Kuypers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to assess the risk of having a traffic accident after using alcohol, single drugs, or a combination, and to determine the concentrations at which this risk is significantly increased. METHODS: A population-based case-control study was carried out, collecting whole blood samples of both cases and controls, in which a number of drugs were detected. The risk of having an accident when under the influence of drugs was estimated using logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and time period of accident (cases/sampling (controls. The main outcome measures were odds ratio (OR for accident risk associated with single and multiple drug use. In total, 337 cases (negative: 176; positive: 161 and 2726 controls (negative: 2425; positive: 301 were included in the study. RESULTS: Main findings were that 1 alcohol in general (all the concentrations together caused an elevated crash risk; 2 cannabis in general also caused an increase in accident risk; at a cut-off of 2 ng/mL THC the risk of having an accident was four times the risk associated with the lowest THC concentrations; 3 when ranking the adjusted OR from lowest to highest risk, alcohol alone or in combination with other drugs was related to a very elevated crash risk, with the highest risk for stimulants combined with sedatives. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated a concentration-dependent crash risk for THC positive drivers. Alcohol and alcohol-drug combinations are by far the most prevalent substances in drivers and subsequently pose the largest risk in traffic, both in terms of risk and scope.

  20. Context dependence of risk effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, D.P.J.; Bubnicki, J.W.; Churski, Marcin; Mols, Bjorn; Hooft, Van Pim

    2015-01-01

    Large mammalian carnivores create areas perceived as having high and low risk by their ungulate prey. Human activities can indirectly shape this landscape of fear by altering behavior and spatial distribution of carnivores. We studied how red deer perceive the landscape of fear in an old-growth

  1. Instrumental variables estimates of peer effects in social networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Weihua

    2015-03-01

    Estimating peer effects with observational data is very difficult because of contextual confounding, peer selection, simultaneity bias, and measurement error, etc. In this paper, I show that instrumental variables (IVs) can help to address these problems in order to provide causal estimates of peer effects. Based on data collected from over 4000 students in six middle schools in China, I use the IV methods to estimate peer effects on smoking. My design-based IV approach differs from previous ones in that it helps to construct potentially strong IVs and to directly test possible violation of exogeneity of the IVs. I show that measurement error in smoking can lead to both under- and imprecise estimations of peer effects. Based on a refined measure of smoking, I find consistent evidence for peer effects on smoking. If a student's best friend smoked within the past 30 days, the student was about one fifth (as indicated by the OLS estimate) or 40 percentage points (as indicated by the IV estimate) more likely to smoke in the same time period. The findings are robust to a variety of robustness checks. I also show that sharing cigarettes may be a mechanism for peer effects on smoking. A 10% increase in the number of cigarettes smoked by a student's best friend is associated with about 4% increase in the number of cigarettes smoked by the student in the same time period. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. [Caries risk estimation in children regarding values of saliva buffer system components and carboanhydrase activity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surdilović, Dusan; Stojanović, Ivana; Apostolović, Mirjana

    2008-09-01

    One of the preconditions for efficacious systematic reduction of caries prevalence and prophylaxis is the determination of risks of this disease appearance. The aim of this study was to prove the significance of salivary carboanhydrase activity determination in estimation of caries risk in children. The study included 123 children of average age of 13.4+/-0.3 years and permanent dentition. The children were divided into two groups according to caries risk (low and high caries risk groups). Two samples of saliva--unstimulated and stimulated one were taken from each child. Salivary carboanhydrase activity, as well as pH value, bicarbonate and phosphate buffer levels were estimated in both group of saliva samples. The investigation showed significantly higher carboanhydrase activity (p saliva samples in low caries risk group compared to high caries risk one. In children with low caries risk, both unstimulated and stimulated saliva show significantly higher bicarbonate and phosphate buffer concentrations (p children with high carboanhydrase activity and higher salivary buffer system parameters levels. The presented results suggest that salivary carboanhydrase activity represents the important marker of individual susceptibility for caries appearance in children.

  3. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Vogel (Ineke); H. Verschuure (Hans); C.P.B. van der Ploeg (Catharina); J. Brug (Hans); H. Raat (Hein)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractObjectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512

  4. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... rate or glomerular filtration barrier and occurrence of stroke. Arch Neurol 2008; 65: 934-938. 2. Matsushita K,Mahmoodi BK, Woodward M,. Emberson JR, Jafar TH, Jee SH et al. Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the. MDRD study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate.

  5. Correction: No Child Left Alone: Moral Judgments about Parents Affect Estimates of Risk to Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley J. Thomas

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This article details a correction to article Thomas, A. J., Stanford, P. K., & Sarnecka, B. W. (2016. No Child Left Alone: Moral Judgments about Parents Affect Estimates of Risk to Children. 'Collabra', 2(1, 10. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.33

  6. Estimating erosion risks associated with logging and forest roads in northwestern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond M. Rice; Jack Lewis

    1991-01-01

    Abstract - Erosion resulting from logging and road building has long been a concern to forest managers and the general public. An objective methodology was developed to estimate erosion risk on forest roads and in harvest areas on private land in northwestern California. It was based on 260 plots sampled from the area harvested under 415 Timber Harvest Plans...

  7. Estimating adolescent risk for hearing loss based on data from a large school-based survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vogel, L.; Verschuure, H.; Ploeg, C.P.B. van der; Brug, J.; Raat, H.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives. We estimated whether and to what extent a group of adolescents were at risk of developing permanent hearing loss as a result of voluntary exposure to high-volume music, and we assessed whether such exposure was associated with hearing-related symptoms. Methods. In 2007, 1512 adolescents

  8. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM…

  9. Commissioning the neutron production of a Linac: Development of a simple tool for second cancer risk estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romero-Expósito, M., E-mail: mariateresa.romero@uab.cat [Departamento de Fisiología Médica y Biofísica, Universidad de Sevilla, Sevilla 41009, Spain and Departament de Física, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193 (Spain); Sánchez-Nieto, B. [Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 4880 (Chile); Terrón, J. A. [Servicio de Radiofísica, Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena, Sevilla 41009 (Spain); Lopes, M. C. [Serviço de Física Médica, Instituto Português de Oncologia, Coimbra 3000-075 (Portugal); Ferreira, B. C. [i3N, Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, Aveiro 3810-193 (Portugal); Grishchuk, D. [Radiotherapy Service, Russian Research Center for Radiology and Surgical Technology, Saint Petersburg 197758 (Russian Federation); Sandín, C. [Elekta, Ltd., Crawley RH10 9RR (United Kingdom); Moral-Sánchez, S. [Servicio de Radiofísica, Instituto Onkologikoa, San Sebastián 20014 (Spain); Melchor, M. [Servicio de Radiofísica, Hospital Universitario de la Ribera, Alzira 46600, Valencia (Spain); Domingo, C. [Departament de Física, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra 08193 (Spain); and others

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Knowing the contribution of neutron to collateral effects in treatments is both a complex and a mandatory task. This work aims to present an operative procedure for neutron estimates in any facility using a neutron digital detector. Methods: The authors’ previous work established a linear relationship between the total second cancer risk due to neutrons (TR{sup n}) and the number of MU of the treatment. Given that the digital detector also presents linearity with MU, its response can be used to determine the TR{sup n} per unit MU, denoted as m, normally associated to a generic Linac model and radiotherapy facility. Thus, from the number of MU of each patient treatment, the associated risk can be estimated. The feasibility of the procedure was tested by applying it in eight facilities; patients were evaluated as well. Results: From the reading of the detector under selected irradiation conditions, m values were obtained for different machines, ranging from 0.25 × 10{sup −4}% per MU for an Elekta Axesse at 10 MV to 6.5 × 10{sup −4}% per MU for a Varian Clinac at 18 MV. Using these values, TR{sup n} of patients was estimated in each facility and compared to that from the individual evaluation. Differences were within the range of uncertainty of the authors’ methodology of equivalent dose and risk estimations. Conclusions: The procedure presented here allows an easy estimation of the second cancer risk due to neutrons for any patient, given the number of MU of the treatment. It will enable the consideration of this information when selecting the optimal treatment for a patient by its implementation in the treatment planning system.

  10. Perspectives of decision-making and estimation of risk in populations exposed to low levels of ionizing radiations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.

    1979-01-01

    The setting of any permissible radiation level or guide remains essentially an arbitrary procedure. Based on the radiation risk estimates derived, any lack of precision does not minimize either the need for setting public health policies nor the conclusion that such risks are extremely small when compared with those avialable of alternative options, and those normally accepted by society as the hazards of everyday life. When compared with the benefits that society has established as goals derived from the necessary activities of medical care and energy production, it is apparent that society must establish appropriate standards and seek appropriate controlling procedures which continue to assure that its needs are being met with the lowest possible risks. This implies continuing decision-making processes in which risk-benefit and cost-effectiveness assessments must be taken into account. Much of the practical information necessary for determination of radiation protection standards for public health policy is still lacking. It is now assumed that any exposure to radiaion at low levels of dose carries some risk of deleterious effects. However, how low this level may be, or the probability, or magnitude of the risk, still are not known. Radiation and the public health becomes a societal and political problem and not solely a scientific one. Our best scientific knowledge and our best scientific advice are essential for the protection of the public health, for the effective application of new technologies in medicine, and for guidance in the production of energy in industry. Unless man wishes to dispense with those activities which inevitably involve exposure to low levels of ionizing radiations, he must recognize that some degree of risk, however small, exists. In the evaluation of such risks from radiation, it is necessary to limit the radiation exposure to a level at which the risk is acceptable both to the individual and to society.

  11. Hip fracture risk estimation based on principal component analysis of QCT atlas: a preliminary study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenjun; Kornak, John; Harris, Tamara; Lu, Ying; Cheng, Xiaoguang; Lang, Thomas

    2009-02-01

    We aim to capture and apply 3-dimensional bone fragility features for fracture risk estimation. Using inter-subject image registration, we constructed a hip QCT atlas comprising 37 patients with hip fractures and 38 age-matched controls. In the hip atlas space, we performed principal component analysis to identify the principal components (eigen images) that showed association with hip fracture. To develop and test a hip fracture risk model based on the principal components, we randomly divided the 75 QCT scans into two groups, one serving as the training set and the other as the test set. We applied this model to estimate a fracture risk index for each test subject, and used the fracture risk indices to discriminate the fracture patients and controls. To evaluate the fracture discrimination efficacy, we performed ROC analysis and calculated the AUC (area under curve). When using the first group as the training group and the second as the test group, the AUC was 0.880, compared to conventional fracture risk estimation methods based on bone densitometry, which had AUC values ranging between 0.782 and 0.871. When using the second group as the training group, the AUC was 0.839, compared to densitometric methods with AUC values ranging between 0.767 and 0.807. Our results demonstrate that principal components derived from hip QCT atlas are associated with hip fracture. Use of such features may provide new quantitative measures of interest to osteoporosis.

  12. How well can adolescents really judge risk? Simple, self reported risk factors out-predict teens' self estimates of personal risk

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander Persoskie

    2013-01-01

    Recent investigations of adolescents' beliefs about risk have led to surprisingly optimistic conclusions: Teens' self estimates of their likelihood of experiencing various life events not only correlate sensibly with relevant risk factors (Fischhoff et al., 2000), but they also significantly predict later experiencing the events (Bruine de Bruin et al., 2007). Using the same dataset examined in previous investigations, the present study extended these analyses by comparing the predictive valu...

  13. Estimating the abortion risk difference in Neospora caninum seropositive dairy cattle in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Romero Nicolino

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Neosporosis in cattle herds is associated with large economic losses, with abortion being the only clinical sign perceptible to the producer. Losses are estimated at over one billion dollars worldwide. This study aimed to estimate the abortion risk difference in seropositive animals using specific data for dairy herds in Brazil. Differences in the risk of abortion between seropositive and seronegative animals were calculated through a meta-analysis of previous data from several Brazilian states, and an increase of 10.04% (0.091 to 0.118 in the specific risk was identified. This finding indicates that more than 474,000 abortions caused by neosporosis may be occurring only in dairy cattle herds in Brazil, causing a major economic loss in the milk production chain. The use of this specific measure for Brazilian herds opens the possibility of developing cost-benefit analysis for neosporosis in Brazil using data that are more reliable

  14. Sea-Level Rise and Land Subsidence in Deltas: Estimating Future Flood Risk Through Integrated Natural and Human System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Deltas are highly sensitive to local human activities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise, and climate extremes. We present a new delta flood exposure and risk framework for estimating the sensitivity of deltas to relative sea-level rise. We have applied this framework to a set of global environmental, geophysical, and social indicators over 48 major river deltas to quantify how contemporary risks vary across delta systems. The risk modeling framework incorporates upstream sediment flux and coastal land subsidence models, global empirical estimates of contemporary storm surge exposure, and population distribution and growth. Future scenarios are used to test the impacts on coastal flood risk of upstream dam construction, coastal population growth, accelerated sea-level rise, and enhanced storm surge. Results suggest a wide range of outcomes across different delta systems within each scenario. Deltas in highly engineered watersheds (Mississippi, Rhine) exhibit less sensitivity to increased dams due to saturation of sediment retention effects, though planned or under-construction dams are expected to have a substantial impact in the Yangtze, Irrawaddy, and Magdalena deltas. Population growth and sea-level rise are expected to be the dominant drivers of increased human risk in most deltas, with important exceptions in several countries, particularly China, where population are forecast to contract over the next several decades.

  15. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  16. Are environmental risk estimations linked to the actual environmental impact? Application to an oil handling facility (NE Spain).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdor, Paloma F; Puente, Araceli; Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Juanes, José A

    2017-01-30

    The environmental risk analysis of aquatic systems includes the evaluation of the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. In harbor areas, pollution is provided by a complex mixture of substances with different levels of toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulation, which complicates the hazards characterization and their multiple effects. A study of the relationship between the environmental impact and the environmental risk assessment at a specific isolated oil handling facility was undertaken. The environmental risk of the oil handling facility, considering the consequences of specific pollutants, was estimated and the associated environmental impact was quantified based on a 'weights of evidence' approach. The contamination quantified at the potentially affected area around the monobuoy of Tarragona has proved to be related with environmental risk estimations but the lines of evidence obtained do not allow us to assert that the activity developed at this facility has an associated environmental impact. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimates of auditory risk from outdoor impulse noise. II: Civilian firearms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flamme, Gregory A; Wong, Adam; Liebe, Kevin; Lynd, James

    2009-01-01

    Firearm impulses are common noise exposures in the United States. This study records, describes and analyzes impulses produced outdoors by civilian firearms with respect to the amount of auditory risk they pose to the unprotected listener under various listening conditions. Risk estimates were obtained using three contemporary damage risk criteria (DRC) including a waveform parameter-based approach (peak SPL and B-duration), an energy-based criterion (A-weighted SEL and equivalent continuous level) and a physiological model (AHAAH). Results from these DRC were converted into a number of maximum permissible unprotected exposures to facilitate interpretation. Acoustic characteristics of firearm impulses differed substantially across guns, ammunition, and microphone location. The type of gun, ammunition and the microphone location all significantly affected estimates of auditory risk from firearms. Vast differences in maximum permissible exposures were observed; the rank order of the differences varied with the source of the impulse. Unprotected exposure to firearm noise is not recommended, but people electing to fire a gun without hearing protection should be advised to minimize auditory risk through careful selection of ammunition and shooting environment. Small-caliber guns with long barrels and guns loaded with the least powerful ammunition tend to be associated with the least auditory risk.

  18. Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Sarah E; Sower, Gregory J; Anderson, Kim A

    2011-10-01

    Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficult to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for 3 years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Cost effective management of space venture risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuntini, Ronald E.; Storm, Richard E.

    1986-01-01

    The development of a model for the cost-effective management of space venture risks is discussed. The risk assessment and control program of insurance companies is examined. A simplified system development cycle which consists of a conceptual design phase, a preliminary design phase, a final design phase, a construction phase, and a system operations and maintenance phase is described. The model incorporates insurance safety risk methods and reliability engineering, and testing practices used in the development of large aerospace and defense systems.

  20. Refining the risk estimate for transfusion-transmission of occult hepatitis B virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seed, C R; Kiely, P; Hoad, V C; Keller, A J

    2017-01-01

    We previously published a model to estimate the residual risk (RR) for occult hepatitis B infection (OBI) in the absence of universal anti-HBc testing. To incorporate new information on the epidemiology of OBI, we describe model refinements and estimate a more accurate HBV RR due to OBI in Australia. In our original model, the OBI risk, p(OBI), was defined by the rate of 'non-detection' by the HBV DNA screening test in use, p(NAT non-detection), and the average infectivity of blood components from OBI donors, p(transmission). We revised the model by integrating three refinements: that donations with anti-HBs levels of >10 IU/l, or donations solely for manufactured plasma products, be excluded from the risk calculation, and an updated estimate of p(transmission). Refining our OBI RR model resulted in a more than 10-fold reduction in the reported RR risk to recipients from OBI in our donor population. Based on the use of a common data set, the mean OBI RR risk decreased from 1 in 374 354 donations (95% CI: 1 in 191 940-1 072 681) to 1 in 3 984 033 (95% CI: 1 in 1 146 188-65 268 257) for the refined model. Our model refinements provide a more realistic measure of the HBV RR in the donor population. Unlike the previous model, the new model demonstrates that the risk of HBV due to OBI in the Australian blood donor population is negligible, and further potentially cost-ineffective risk management strategies are not currently warranted. © 2016 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

  1. Estimating young Australian adults' risk of hearing damage from selected leisure activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beach, Elizabeth; Williams, Warwick; Gilliver, Megan

    2013-01-01

    Several previous studies have attempted to estimate the risk of noise-induced hearing loss from loud leisure noise. Some of these studies may have overestimated the risk because they used noise estimates taken from the higher end of reported levels. The aim of the present study was to provide a realistic estimate of the number of young Australian adults who may be at risk of hearing damage and eventual hearing loss from leisure-noise exposure. Average noise levels at five high-noise leisure activities, (1) nightclubs; (2) pubs, bars, and registered clubs; (3) fitness classes; (4) live sporting events; (5) concerts and live music venues, were calculated using 108 measurements taken from a large database of leisure noise measurements. In addition, an online survey was administered to a convenience sample of 1000 young adults aged 18 to 35 years, who reported the time spent at these leisure activities and the frequency with which they undertook the activities. They also answered questions about tinnitus and their perceived risk of hearing damage. Although the survey data cannot be considered representative of the population of young Australian adults, it was weighted to this population in respect of age, gender, education, and location. The survey data and the average noise levels were used to estimate each individual's annual noise exposure, and in turn, estimate those at risk of hearing damage from leisure-noise exposure. For the majority of participants (n = 868), the accumulated leisure noise level was within the acceptable workplace limit. However, 132 participants or 14.1% (population weighted) were exposed to an annual noise dose greater than the acceptable workplace noise limit. By far, the main source of high-risk leisure noise was from nightclubs. Those with more leisure-noise exposure experienced more tinnitus and perceived themselves to be more at risk than those with lower noise exposures. It is recommended that nightclub operators reduce noise levels

  2. A re-examination of risk estimates from the NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, M M; Stayner, L T; Smith, R J; Gilbert, S J

    1997-02-01

    This paper describes a new analysis of data from the 1968-72 National Institute for Occupational Safety & Health (NIOSH) Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). The population consisted of 1172 (792 noise-exposed and 380 "controls") predominately white male workers from a cross section of industries within the United States. The analysis focused on how risk estimates vary according to various model assumptions, including shape of the dose-response curve and the amount of noise exposure among low-noise exposed workers (or controls). Logistic regression models were used to describe the risk of hearing handicap in relation to age, occupational noise exposure, and duration exposed. Excess risk estimates were generated for several definitions of hearing handicap. Hearing handicap is usually denoted as an average hearing threshold level (HTL) of greater than 25 dB for both ears at selected frequencies. The frequencies included in the biaural averages were (1) the articulation-weighted average over 1-4 kHz, (2) the unweighted average over 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz, and (3) the unweighted average over 1, 2, and 3 kHz. The results show that excess risk estimates for time-weighted average sound levels below 85 dB were sensitive to statistical model form and assumptions regarding the sound level to which the "control" group was exposed. The choice of frequencies used in the hearing handicap definition affected the magnitude of excess risk estimates, which depended on age and duration of exposure. Although data were limited below 85 dB, an age-stratified analysis provided evidence of excess risks at levels ranging from 80 to 84 dB, 85-89 dB, and 90-102 dB. Due to uncertainty in quantifying risks below 85 dB, new data collection efforts should focus on better characterization of dose-response and longitudinal hearing surveys that include workers exposed to 8-hour time-weighted noise levels below 85 dB. Results are compared to excess risk estimates generated using methods given by

  3. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  4. Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamic Panel Data Models with Individual Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Hu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests a generalized method of moments (GMM based estimation for dynamic panel data models with individual specific fixed effects and threshold effects simultaneously. We extend Hansen’s (Hansen, 1999 original setup to models including endogenous regressors, specifically, lagged dependent variables. To address the problem of endogeneity of these nonlinear dynamic panel data models, we prove that the orthogonality conditions proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991 are valid. The threshold and slope parameters are estimated by GMM, and asymptotic distribution of the slope parameters is derived. Finite sample performance of the estimation is investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the threshold and slope parameter can be estimated accurately and also the finite sample distribution of slope parameters is well approximated by the asymptotic distribution.

  5. Effects of sample size on KERNEL home range estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaman, D.E.; Millspaugh, J.J.; Kernohan, Brian J.; Brundige, Gary C.; Raedeke, Kenneth J.; Gitzen, Robert A.

    1999-01-01

    Kernel methods for estimating home range are being used increasingly in wildlife research, but the effect of sample size on their accuracy is not known. We used computer simulations of 10-200 points/home range and compared accuracy of home range estimates produced by fixed and adaptive kernels with the reference (REF) and least-squares cross-validation (LSCV) methods for determining the amount of smoothing. Simulated home ranges varied from simple to complex shapes created by mixing bivariate normal distributions. We used the size of the 95% home range area and the relative mean squared error of the surface fit to assess the accuracy of the kernel home range estimates. For both measures, the bias and variance approached an asymptote at about 50 observations/home range. The fixed kernel with smoothing selected by LSCV provided the least-biased estimates of the 95% home range area. All kernel methods produced similar surface fit for most simulations, but the fixed kernel with LSCV had the lowest frequency and magnitude of very poor estimates. We reviewed 101 papers published in The Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) between 1980 and 1997 that estimated animal home ranges. A minority of these papers used nonparametric utilization distribution (UD) estimators, and most did not adequately report sample sizes. We recommend that home range studies using kernel estimates use LSCV to determine the amount of smoothing, obtain a minimum of 30 observations per animal (but preferably a?Y50), and report sample sizes in published results.

  6. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  7. Herbivore release through cascading risk effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt-Entling, Martin H; Siegenthaler, Eva

    2009-12-23

    Predators influence prey through consumption, and through trait-mediated effects such as emigration in response to predation risk (risk effects). We studied top-down effects of (sub-) adult wolf spiders (Lycosidae) on arthropods in a meadow. We compared risk effects with the overall top-down effect (including consumption) by gluing the chelicers of wolf spiders to prevent them from killing the prey. In a field experiment, we created three treatments that included either: (i) intact ('predation') wolf spiders; (ii) wolf spiders with glued chelicers ('risk spiders'); or (iii) no (sub-) adult wolf spiders. Young wolf spiders were reduced by their (sub-) adult congeners. Densities of sheetweb spiders (Linyphiidae), a known intraguild prey of wolf spiders, were equally reduced by the presence of risk and predation wolf spiders. Plant- and leafhoppers (Auchenorrhyncha) showed the inverse pattern of higher densities in the presence of both risk and predation wolf spiders. We conclude that (sub-) adult wolf spiders acted as top predators, which reduced densities of intermediate predators and thereby enhanced herbivores. Complementary to earlier studies that found trait-mediated herbivore suppression, our results demonstrate that herbivores can be enhanced through cascading risk effects by top predators.

  8. Estimation of morbid risk and age at onset with missing information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cupples, L A; Risch, N; Farrer, L A; Myers, R H

    1991-07-01

    Investigators of genetic illnesses are currently employing life-table techniques to estimate the lifetime risk of disease and the age-at-onset distribution. This methodology assumes that onset ages are known for affected individuals and that censoring ages are known for unaffected individuals. We extend these methods to incorporate affected individuals with unknown onset ages and unaffected persons with unknown censoring ages and illustrate how conventional life-table methods can produce seriously biased estimates, particularly of lifetime risk. The methodology is not restricted to genetic illnesses and can be applied to more complex illnesses with unknown etiology. We present an example for Huntington disease, which is generally assumed to be a Mendelian autosomal dominant disease, yielding estimates of lifetime risk of .503 +/- .70 and mean onset age of 47.7 +/- 3.1 years for offspring with a single affected parent. When conventional life-table techniques are employed, these estimates are .238 +/- .032 and 43.2 +/- 2.2.

  9. Estimating concentration rebounds in pumping wells and their impact on aquifer remediation and risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F. P. J.; Fernández-Garcia, D.; Bolster, D.

    2012-04-01

    Capturing the effects of aquifer heterogeneity is key to evaluating risk in groundwater related problems. In this work we analyze the potential failure of remediation due to the rebound of concentrations driven by back diffusion. Withdrawing polluted water from a contaminated aquifer by pumping is one of the most common components of many remediation actions. Pumping proceeds until concentrations of contaminants in the extracted water falls below some pre-specified value. In several cases, it has been observed that a rebound in the concentration signal takes place at the well after remediation pumping stops. For this reason, a conservative approach may be needed and pumping may have to last much longer than back of the envelope calculations might suggest. It is well known and documented that spatial heterogeneity, ubiquitously found in the hydraulic properties of aquifers, leads to multiple mass transfer processes occurring at different time scales, both for conservative and reactive species. Heterogeneity thus plays a significant role in the interpretation of breakthrough curves and plays a driving role in controlling processes associated with concentration rebounds as described above. In this study we take a close look at this and lay the groundwork for a risk-based optimal operation methodology that is capable of estimating the time at which to end remediation pumping. Our model is built with aquifer parameters that characterize the role of a heterogeneous medium and the multiple scales of mass transfer as well as pumping rates and initial size of the polluted area. The results from this modeling framework will have a clear impact in economic terms on determining optimal and viable remediation strategies.

  10. Epidemiology of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE in Germany from 2003 to 2009: a risk estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katharina Schönberger

    Full Text Available Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE is a fatal long-term complication of measles infection. We performed an estimation of the total number of SSPE cases in Germany for the period 2003 to 2009 and calculated the risk of SSPE after an acute measles infection. SSPE cases were collected from the Surveillance Unit for Rare Paediatric Diseases in Germany and the Institute of Virology and Immunobiology at the University of Würzburg. The total number of SSPE cases was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. For the period 2003 to 2009, 31 children with SSPE who were treated at German hospitals were identified. The capture-recapture estimate was 39 cases (95% confidence interval: 29.2-48.0. The risk of developing SSPE for children contracting measles infection below 5 years of age was calculated as 1∶1700 to 1∶3300. This risk is in the same order of magnitude as the risk of a fatal acute measles infection.

  11. Estimation of Value-at-Risk on Romanian Stock Exchange Using Volatility Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu Ilie OPREANA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to analyse the market risk (estimated by Value-at-Risk on the Romanian capital market using modern econometric tools to estimate volatility, such as EWMA, GARCH models. In this respect, I want to identify the most appropriate volatility forecasting model to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR of a portofolio of representative indices (BET, BET-FI and RASDAQ-C. VaR depends on the volatility, time horizon and confidence interval for the continuous returns under analysis. Volatility tends to happen in clusters. The assumption that volatility remains constant at all times can be fatal. It is determined that the most recent data have asserted more influence on future volatility than past data. To emphasize this fact, recently, EWMA and GARCH models have become critical tools in financial applications. The outcome of this study is that GARCH provides more accurate analysis than EWMA.This approach is useful for traders and risk managers to be able to forecast the future volatility on a certain market.

  12. Estimating the country risk premium in emerging markets: the case of the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Naumoski

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of the cost of capital is difficult in developed markets and even more difficult in emerging markets. Investments in the emerging markets are more risky than in the developed markets but return is also higher. The key question here is whether the return on investments in emerging markets should be rewarded by compensation in excess of that provided by an equivalent investment in a developed market. Contemporary literature provides alternative ways for calculating the cost of capital invested in emerging markets. In general, it can be concluded that it is widely accepted that country risk matters when investing in emerging markets and it is a key component in the estimation of the cost of capital for those investments. Country risk is non-diversifiable, which will be argued in this paper first, after which an alternative approach will be provided for quantification of country risk in the risk premium measure, which is integral component in the models for estimating the cost of capital.

  13. Flexible semiparametric joint modeling: an application to estimate individual lung function decline and risk of pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiologic surveillance of lung function is key to clinical care of individuals with cystic fibrosis, but lung function decline is nonlinear and often impacted by acute respiratory events known as pulmonary exacerbations. Statistical models are needed to simultaneously estimate lung function decline while providing risk estimates for the onset of pulmonary exacerbations, in order to identify relevant predictors of declining lung function and understand how these associations could be used to predict the onset of pulmonary exacerbations. Methods Using longitudinal lung function (FEV1 measurements and time-to-event data on pulmonary exacerbations from individuals in the United States Cystic Fibrosis Registry, we implemented a flexible semiparametric joint model consisting of a mixed-effects submodel with regression splines to fit repeated FEV1 measurements and a time-to-event submodel for possibly censored data on pulmonary exacerbations. We contrasted this approach with methods currently used in epidemiological studies and highlight clinical implications. Results The semiparametric joint model had the best fit of all models examined based on deviance information criterion. Higher starting FEV1 implied more rapid lung function decline in both separate and joint models; however, individualized risk estimates for pulmonary exacerbation differed depending upon model type. Based on shared parameter estimates from the joint model, which accounts for the nonlinear FEV1 trajectory, patients with more positive rates of change were less likely to experience a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 rate of change = 0.566, 95% CI 0.516–0.619, and having higher absolute FEV1 also corresponded to lower risk of having a pulmonary exacerbation (HR per one standard deviation increase in FEV1 = 0.856, 95% CI 0.781–0.937. At the population level, both submodels indicated significant effects of birth

  14. Underestimating the Alcohol Content of a Glass of Wine: The Implications for Estimates of Mortality Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Annie; O'Neill, Darragh; Bell, Steven

    2016-09-01

    Increases in glass sizes and wine strength over the last 25 years in the UK are likely to have led to an underestimation of alcohol intake in population studies. We explore whether this probable misclassification affects the association between average alcohol intake and risk of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. Self-reported alcohol consumption in 1997-1999 among 7010 men and women in the Whitehall II cohort of British civil servants was linked to the risk of mortality until mid-2015. A conversion factor of 8 g of alcohol per wine glass (1 unit) was compared with a conversion of 16 g per wine glass (2 units). When applying a higher alcohol content conversion for wine consumption, the proportion of heavy/very heavy drinkers increased from 28% to 41% for men and 15% to 28% for women. There was a significantly increased risk of very heavy drinking compared with moderate drinking for deaths from all causes and cancer before and after change in wine conversion; however, the hazard ratios were reduced when a higher wine conversion was used. In this population-based study, assuming higher alcohol content in wine glasses changed the estimates of mortality risk. We propose that investigator-led cohorts need to revisit conversion factors based on more accurate estimates of alcohol content in wine glasses. Prospectively, researchers need to collect more detailed information on alcohol including serving sizes and strength. The alcohol content in a wine glass is likely to be underestimated in population surveys as wine strength and serving size have increased in recent years. We demonstrate that in a large cohort study, this underestimation affects estimates of mortality risk. Investigator-led cohorts need to revisit conversion factors based on more accurate estimates of alcohol content in wine glasses. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press.

  15. Estimating cumulative risks for breast cancer for carriers of variants in uncommon genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindor, Noralane M; Hopper, John; Dowty, James

    2016-07-01

    The rapid clinical embrace of next generation multigene cancer predisposition panels has resulted in discovery of DNA variants in genes for which very limited data on penetrance has been published. Evidence for increased risks associated with these genes is often expressed in odds ratios and studies often were conducted on a priori high risk cohorts, i.e. those with young onset disease and/or positive family histories. Despite these limitations, one can estimate cumulative risks, which may be useful for health care providers who are counselling individuals on their results. We present cumulative risks for several under-studied genes and provide generic information that can be extrapolated to data still emerging.

  16. Furan in commercial baby foods from the Spanish market: estimation of daily intake and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altaki, M Soubhi; Santos, F Javier; Puignou, Lluis; Galceran, Maria Teresa

    2017-05-01

    The occurrence of furan in commercial baby food samples from the Spanish market was evaluated using an automated headspace solid-phase microextraction method coupled to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (HS-SPME-GC-MS). A total of 76 baby food samples including infant formula, baby cereals, fruit in cans and/or jars, vegetables, meat, and fish, were surveyed for furan content. The lowest concentration of this compound was found in infant formula (baby food containing fish showed the highest concentrations (19-84 ng g -1 ). Following recommendation of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), the effect on furan content was evaluated of consumer home preparation of foods, heating and handling. Furan concentrations were reduced by up to 35% when samples were heated in a dish using microwave oven and by up to 53% when a hot water bath was used. Finally, we estimated the furan intake from baby food consumption (0.002-1.18 µg kg -1 body weight day -1 ) and we calculated the margin of exposure (MOE) from samples as purchased and also after home preparation of the food. For infant formula and cereal baby foods, the MOEs (26,278-412,776) indicated no infant health concern or priority, while for meat and fish-based baby foods the values pointed to a potential public health risk, even considering the furan losses during preparation at home.

  17. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  18. Estimating the impacts of urban growth on future flood risk : A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerbeek, W.

    2017-01-01

    The unprecedented growth of cities has a significant impact on future flood risk that might exceed the impacts of climate change in many metropolitan areas across the world. Although the effects of urbanisation on flood risk are well understood, assessments that include spatially explicit future

  19. Estimating the impacts of urban growth on future flood risk: A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verbeek, W.

    2017-01-01

    The unprecedented growth of cities has a significant impact on future flood risk that might exceed the impacts of climate change in many metropolitan areas across the world. Although the effects of urbanisation on flood risk are well understood, assessments that include spatially explicit future

  20. Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan

    2017-03-01

    When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.

  1. Risk-Cost Estimation of On-Site Wastewater Treatment System Failures Using Extreme Value Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Laura E; Silverstein, JoAnn; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2017-05-01

      Owner resistance to increasing regulation of on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), including obligatory inspections and upgrades, moratoriums and cease-and-desist orders in communities around the U.S. demonstrate the challenges associated with managing risks of inadequate performance of owner-operated wastewater treatment systems. As a result, determining appropriate and enforceable performance measures in an industry with little history of these requirements is challenging. To better support such measures, we develop a statistical method to predict lifetime failure risks, expressed as costs, in order to identify operational factors associated with costly repairs and replacement. A binomial logistic regression is used to fit data from public records of reported OWTS failures, in Boulder County, Colorado, which has 14 300 OWTS to determine the probability that an OWTS will be in a low- or high-risk category for lifetime repair and replacement costs. High-performing or low risk OWTS with repairs and replacements below the threshold of $9000 over a 40-year life are associated with more frequent inspections and upgrades following home additions. OWTS with a high risk of exceeding the repair cost threshold of $18 000 are further analyzed in a variation of extreme value analysis (EVA), Points Over Threshold (POT) where the distribution of risk-cost exceedance values are represented by a generalized Pareto distribution. The resulting threshold cost exceedance estimates for OWTS in the high-risk category over a 40-year expected life ranged from $18 000 to $44 000.

  2. Non-sedating antihistamine drugs and cardiac arrhythmias -- biased risk estimates from spontaneous reporting systems?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Bruin, M L; van Puijenbroek, E P; Egberts, A C G

    2002-01-01

    AIMS: This study used spontaneous reports of adverse events to estimate the risk for developing cardiac arrhythmias due to the systemic use of non-sedating antihistamine drugs and compared the risk estimate before and after the regulatory action to recall the over-the-counter status of some...... of these drugs. METHODS: All suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) reported until July 1999 to the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Foundation Lareb were used to calculate the ADR reporting odds ratio, defined as the ratio of exposure odds among reported arrhythmia cases, to the exposure odds of other ADRs (non......-cases), adjusted for gender, age, reporter, year of reporting and comedication, stratified for the periods before and after the governmental decision in the Netherlands. RESULTS: Seven-hundred and thirty-seven cases of arrhythmia were reported, out of which there were 43 instances where the patients were using non...

  3. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  4. A new technique for fire risk estimation in the wildland urban interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasgupta, S.; Qu, J. J.; Hao, X.

    A novel technique based on the physical variable of pre-ignition energy is proposed for assessing fire risk in the Grassland-Urban-Interface The physical basis lends meaning a site and season independent applicability possibilities for computing spread rates and ignition probabilities features contemporary fire risk indices usually lack The method requires estimates of grass moisture content and temperature A constrained radiative-transfer inversion scheme on MODIS NIR-SWIR reflectances which reduces solution ambiguity is used for grass moisture retrieval while MODIS land surface temperature emissivity products are used for retrieving grass temperature Subpixel urban contamination of the MODIS reflective and thermal signals over a Grassland-Urban-Interface pixel is corrected using periodic estimates of urban influence from high spatial resolution ASTER

  5. Estimation of morbid risk and age at onset with missing information.

    OpenAIRE

    Cupples, L A; Risch, N; Farrer, L.A.; Myers, R H

    1991-01-01

    Investigators of genetic illnesses are currently employing life-table techniques to estimate the lifetime risk of disease and the age-at-onset distribution. This methodology assumes that onset ages are known for affected individuals and that censoring ages are known for unaffected individuals. We extend these methods to incorporate affected individuals with unknown onset ages and unaffected persons with unknown censoring ages and illustrate how conventional life-table methods can produce seri...

  6. Health risk estimates for groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic: a convenient tool for identification and mapping of risk areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajčíková, K; Cvečková, V; Stewart, A; Rapant, S

    2014-10-01

    We undertook a quantitative estimation of health risks to residents living in the Slovak Republic and exposed to contaminated groundwater (ingestion by adult population) and/or soils (ingestion by adult and child population). Potential risk areas were mapped to give a visual presentation at basic administrative units of the country (municipalities, districts, regions) for easy discussion with policy and decision-makers. The health risk estimates were calculated by US EPA methods, applying threshold values for chronic risk and non-threshold values for cancer risk. The potential health risk was evaluated for As, Ba, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, NO3 (-), Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for groundwater and As, B, Ba, Be, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for soils. An increased health risk was identified mainly in historical mining areas highly contaminated by geogenic-anthropogenic sources (ore deposit occurrence, mining, metallurgy). Arsenic and antimony were the most significant elements in relation to health risks from groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic contributing a significant part of total chronic risk levels. Health risk estimation for soil contamination has highlighted the significance of exposure through soil ingestion in children. Increased cancer risks from groundwater and soil contamination by arsenic were noted in several municipalities and districts throughout the country in areas with significantly high arsenic levels in the environment. This approach to health risk estimations and visualization represents a fast, clear and convenient tool for delineation of risk areas at national and local levels.

  7. Facing the estimation of effective population size based on molecular markers: comparison of estimators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez Mena, Belen; Verrier, Etienne; Hospital, Frederic

    We performed a simulation study of several estimators of the effective population size (Ne): NeH = estimator based on the rate of decrease in heterozygosity; NeT = estimator based on the temporal method; NeLD = linkage disequilibrium-based method. We first focused on NeH, which presented...... under scenarios of 3 and 20 bi-allelic loci. Increasing the number of loci largely improved the performance of NeT and NeLD. We highlight the value of NeT and NeLD when large numbers of bi-allelic loci are available, which is nowadays the case for SNPs markers....... an increase in the variability of values over time. The distance from the mean and the median to the true Ne increased over time too. This was caused by the fixation of alleles through time due to genetic drift and the changes in the distribution of allele frequencies. We compared the three estimators of Ne...

  8. Combined methodology for estimating dose rates and health effects from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.

    1980-12-01

    The work described in the report is basically a synthesis of two previously existing computer codes: INREM II, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and CAIRD, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The INREM II code uses contemporary dosimetric methods to estimate doses to specified reference organs due to inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. The CAIRD code employs actuarial life tables to account for competing risks in estimating numbers of health effects resulting from exposure of a cohort to some incremental risk. The combined computer code, referred to as RADRISK, estimates numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons due to continuous lifetime inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. Also briefly discussed in this report is a method of estimating numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort due to continuous lifetime exposure to external radiation. This method employs the CAIRD methodology together with dose conversion factors generated by the computer code DOSFACTER, developed at ORNL; these dose conversion factors are used to estimate dose rates to persons due to radionuclides in the air or on the ground surface. The combination of the life table and dosimetric guidelines for the release of radioactive pollutants to the atmosphere, as required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

  9. Estimating the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in blood donors and pregnant women in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabae, Koji; Satoh, Hiroshi; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Tanaka-Taya, Keiko; Okabe, Nobuhiko; Oishi, Kazunori; Matsumoto, Kunichika; Hasegawa, Tomonori

    2014-01-01

    Seroepidemiological study of parvovirus B19 has not taken place for some 20 years in Japan. To estimate the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in Japan among blood donors and pregnant women in this century, a seroepidemiological survey and statistical modeling of the force of infection were conducted. The time- and age-specific seroprevalence data were suggestive of strong age-dependency in the risk of infection. Employing a piecewise constant model, the highest forces of infection of 0.05 and 0.12 per year were observed among those aged 0-4 and 5-9 years, respectively, while estimates among older individuals were less than 0.01 per year. Analyzing the antigen detection data among blood donors, the age-specific proportion positive was highest among those aged 30-39 years, agreeing with the presence of dip in seroprevalence in this age-group. Among pregnant women, up to 107 fetal deaths and 21 hydrops fetalis were estimated to have occurred annually across Japan. Seroepidemiological profiles of PVB19 infection in Japan was characterized with particular emphasis on the risk of infection in blood donors and the burden of infection among pregnant women. When a vaccine becomes available in the future, a similar seroepidemiological study is expected to play a key role in planning the appropriate immunization policy.

  10. Estimating the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in blood donors and pregnant women in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koji Nabae

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Seroepidemiological study of parvovirus B19 has not taken place for some 20 years in Japan. To estimate the risk of parvovirus B19 infection in Japan among blood donors and pregnant women in this century, a seroepidemiological survey and statistical modeling of the force of infection were conducted. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The time- and age-specific seroprevalence data were suggestive of strong age-dependency in the risk of infection. Employing a piecewise constant model, the highest forces of infection of 0.05 and 0.12 per year were observed among those aged 0-4 and 5-9 years, respectively, while estimates among older individuals were less than 0.01 per year. Analyzing the antigen detection data among blood donors, the age-specific proportion positive was highest among those aged 30-39 years, agreeing with the presence of dip in seroprevalence in this age-group. Among pregnant women, up to 107 fetal deaths and 21 hydrops fetalis were estimated to have occurred annually across Japan. CONCLUSIONS: Seroepidemiological profiles of PVB19 infection in Japan was characterized with particular emphasis on the risk of infection in blood donors and the burden of infection among pregnant women. When a vaccine becomes available in the future, a similar seroepidemiological study is expected to play a key role in planning the appropriate immunization policy.

  11. Effect of Environmental Variation on Estimating the Bacterial Species Richness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongjian; Kuang, Jialiang; Jia, Pu; Cadotte, Marc W.; Huang, Linan; Li, Jintian; Liao, Bin; Wang, Pandeng; Shu, Wensheng

    2017-01-01

    Estimating the species richness of microorganisms is of great importance in predicting, maintaining and managing microbial communities. Although the roles of environmental heterogeneity and geographical distance in structuring soil microbial communities have been studied intensively, the effects of environmental and spatial variation on the species richness estimation have not been examined. To this end, we have explored their effects on estimating the belowground soil bacterial species richness within a 50 ha forest dynamic plot (FDP) using a published massive sequencing dataset with intensive sampling scheme. Our resampling analyses showed that, for a given sequencing depth, increasing the sample size could significantly enhance the detection of rare species by capturing more of the environmental and spatial variation, thus obtaining higher observed and estimated species richness. Additionally, the estimates of bacterial species richness were significantly and positively correlated with environmental variation among samples, indicating that environmental filtering was the main mechanism driving the processes of community assembly for belowground soil bacterial communities in the plot. Moreover, this effect of environmental variation could be markedly alleviated when the sample size was higher than 450, and thus we predicted that there were at least 42,866 soil bacterial species based on 8,296,878 sequences from 550 samples in the whole 50 ha FDP. Furthermore, we built a power law environmental heterogeneity equation (EHE) as a decision-tool to determine an approximate sample size for comprehensively capturing the environmental gradient within a given habitat. Collectively, this work further links the inherent environmental and spatial variation to the estimation of soil bacterial species richness within a given region, and provides a useful tool of sampling design for a better understanding of microbial biogeographic patterns and estimation of microbial

  12. Effect of Environmental Variation on Estimating the Bacterial Species Richness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yongjian; Kuang, Jialiang; Jia, Pu; Cadotte, Marc W; Huang, Linan; Li, Jintian; Liao, Bin; Wang, Pandeng; Shu, Wensheng

    2017-01-01

    Estimating the species richness of microorganisms is of great importance in predicting, maintaining and managing microbial communities. Although the roles of environmental heterogeneity and geographical distance in structuring soil microbial communities have been studied intensively, the effects of environmental and spatial variation on the species richness estimation have not been examined. To this end, we have explored their effects on estimating the belowground soil bacterial species richness within a 50 ha forest dynamic plot (FDP) using a published massive sequencing dataset with intensive sampling scheme. Our resampling analyses showed that, for a given sequencing depth, increasing the sample size could significantly enhance the detection of rare species by capturing more of the environmental and spatial variation, thus obtaining higher observed and estimated species richness. Additionally, the estimates of bacterial species richness were significantly and positively correlated with environmental variation among samples, indicating that environmental filtering was the main mechanism driving the processes of community assembly for belowground soil bacterial communities in the plot. Moreover, this effect of environmental variation could be markedly alleviated when the sample size was higher than 450, and thus we predicted that there were at least 42,866 soil bacterial species based on 8,296,878 sequences from 550 samples in the whole 50 ha FDP. Furthermore, we built a power law environmental heterogeneity equation (EHE) as a decision-tool to determine an approximate sample size for comprehensively capturing the environmental gradient within a given habitat. Collectively, this work further links the inherent environmental and spatial variation to the estimation of soil bacterial species richness within a given region, and provides a useful tool of sampling design for a better understanding of microbial biogeographic patterns and estimation of microbial

  13. A CURE for noisy magnetic resonance images: chi-square unbiased risk estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luisier, Florian; Blu, Thierry; Wolfe, Patrick J

    2012-08-01

    n this article we derive an unbiased expression for the expected mean-squared error associated with continuously differentiable estimators of the noncentrality parameter of a chisquare random variable. We then consider the task of denoising squared-magnitude magnetic resonance image data, which are well modeled as independent noncentral chi-square random variables on two degrees of freedom. We consider two broad classes of linearly parameterized shrinkage estimators that can be optimized using our risk estimate, one in the general context of undecimated filterbank transforms, and another in the specific case of the unnormalized Haar wavelet transform. The resultant algorithms are computationally tractable and improve upon most state-of-the-art methods for both simulated and actual magnetic resonance image data.

  14. Improving effectiveness in communicating risk to patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkiewicz, Jill S; Vesta, Kimi S; Hume, Anne L

    2008-01-01

    To review approaches and tools that pharmacists may use in communicating evidence of risk to older patients and their caregivers. Relevant publications related to tools to communicate evidence to patients were identified through a systematic MEDLINE and Internet search engines using key words: evidence-based medicine/practice, patient, and risk communication. Additional articles were identified through use of the PubMed "related articles" feature and a review of citations of previously identified articles. Relevant English language publications were reviewed, with particular focus on articles about older adults. Communicating evidence from clinical trials to patients remains a challenge because of patient- and clinician-related barriers. Communicating with older adults faces additional challenges: perceptions of patient involvement in care and uncertainty of drug benefit-to-risk ratio because of the potential increase in adverse events. This is especially true in this population because of their multiple medical conditions. To actively involve patients in health care decisions, an ordered approach to teaching risks and benefits can be valuable. Evidence presented as a general risk estimate should be reinforced with specific numbers to depict patient-specific risk. Understanding may be strengthened with visual aids such as risk ladders or perspective scales. Each step in the process serves as a framework and should consider patients' individual values and beliefs. For patients to fully understand medications' risks and benefits, clinicians must use a systematic approach to present data from clinical trials and reinforce patients' comprehension using visual aids. Ultimately, these approaches and tools aim to support patient involvement in health care decisions.

  15. Aid decision algorithms to estimate the risk in congenital heart surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Fernández, Daniel; Monsalve Torra, Ana; Soriano-Payá, Antonio; Marín-Alonso, Oscar; Triana Palencia, Eddy

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we have tested the suitability of using different artificial intelligence-based algorithms for decision support when classifying the risk of congenital heart surgery. In this sense, classification of those surgical risks provides enormous benefits as the a priori estimation of surgical outcomes depending on either the type of disease or the type of repair, and other elements that influence the final result. This preventive estimation may help to avoid future complications, or even death. We have evaluated four machine learning algorithms to achieve our objective: multilayer perceptron, self-organizing map, radial basis function networks and decision trees. The architectures implemented have the aim of classifying among three types of surgical risk: low complexity, medium complexity and high complexity. Accuracy outcomes achieved range between 80% and 99%, being the multilayer perceptron method the one that offered a higher hit ratio. According to the results, it is feasible to develop a clinical decision support system using the evaluated algorithms. Such system would help cardiology specialists, paediatricians and surgeons to forecast the level of risk related to a congenital heart disease surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Evidence that Risk Adjustment is Unnecessary in Estimates of the User Cost of Money

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego A. Restrepo-Tobón

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Investors value the  special attributes of monetary assets (e.g.,  exchangeability, liquidity, and safety  and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the  returns on illiquid risky assets and  those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the  differential risk of the  assets in question. We investigate the  impact that time  non-separable preferences has on the  estimation of the  risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model  with money  in the utility function and  find that the  risk  adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the  user cost of money  in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

  17. Estimating the influence of natural hazards on pipeline risk and system reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, M.; Logue, C.; Savigny, W.; Esford, F.; Bruce, I. [BGC Engineering Inc., Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    The techniques for understanding pipeline hazard exposure were discussed along with methods to estimate pipeline risk and reliability. Although natural hazards, such as ground movement, are not a major contributor to pipeline failures compared to other causes such as third party damage, corrosion and material defects, the risk posed by geohazards is proportionally quite significant. In cases where difficult ground conditions have not been properly accounted for in pipeline design, construction, and operation, geohazards may have an overriding influence on pipeline risk and reliability. The many natural hazards that can threaten the safe and efficient operation of pipelines can be divided into 3 broad groups, namely geotechnical, hydrotechnical and tectonic hazards. This paper addressed the issue of of why the relative significance of natural hazards is often underestimated by the pipeline industry, with reference to published western European and U.S. incident data. Geohazards can cause pipeline failures, with consequences ranging from injury, death, environmental impact, property damage, and lengthy service disruption. This paper introduced a framework for estimating the influence of geohazards on pipeline risk and system reliability. 14 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  18. A simulation model to estimate the risk of transfusion-transmitted arboviral infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Guifang; Biggerstaff, Brad J; Richardson, Alice M; Gahan, Michelle E; Lidbury, Brett A

    2016-10-01

    The arboviruses West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV) and Ross River virus (RRV) have been demonstrated to be blood transfusion-transmissible. A model to estimate the risk of WNV to the blood supply using a Monte Carlo approach has been developed and also applied to Chikungunya virus. Also, a probabilistic model was developed to assess the risk of DENV to blood safety, which was later adapted to RRV. To address efficacy and limitations within each model we present a hybrid model that promises improved accuracy, and is broadly applicable to assess the risk of arboviral transmission by blood transfusion. Data were drawn from the Cairns Public Health Unit (Australia) and published literature. Based on the published models and using R code, a novel 'combined' model was developed and validated against the BP model using sensitivity testing. The mean risk per 10,000 of the combined model is 0.98 with a range from 0.79 to 1.25, while the maximum risk was 4.45 ranging from 2.62 to 7.67 respectively. These parameters for the BP model were 1.20 ranging from 0.84 to 1.55, and 2.86 ranging from 1.33 to 5.23 respectively. The combined simulation model is simple and robust. We propose it can be applied as a 'generic' arbovirus model to assess the risk from known or novel arboviral threats to the blood supply. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John [Department of Medical Physics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Crete, P.O. Box 2208, 71003 Iraklion, Crete (Greece); Lyraraki, Efrossyni [Department of Radiotherapy and Oncology, University Hospital of Iraklion, 71110 Iraklion, Crete (Greece)

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by

  20. Estimating the probability of neonatal early-onset infection on the basis of maternal risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puopolo, Karen M; Draper, David; Wi, Soora; Newman, Thomas B; Zupancic, John; Lieberman, Ellice; Smith, Myesha; Escobar, Gabriel J

    2011-11-01

    To develop a quantitative model to estimate the probability of neonatal early-onset bacterial infection on the basis of maternal intrapartum risk factors. This was a nested case-control study of infants born at ≥34 weeks' gestation at 14 California and Massachusetts hospitals from 1993 to 2007. Case-subjects had culture-confirmed bacterial infection at 4 hours before delivery was associated with decreased risk. Our model showed good discrimination and calibration (c statistic = 0.800 and Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .142 in the entire data set). A predictive model based on information available in the immediate perinatal period performs better than algorithms based on risk-factor threshold values. This model establishes a prior probability for newborn sepsis, which could be combined with neonatal physical examination and laboratory values to establish a posterior probability to guide treatment decisions.

  1. Estimating risks and relative risks in case-base studies under the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, Tina Tsz-Ting; Lee, Wen-Chung

    2014-01-01

    Many diseases result from the interactions between genes and the environment. An efficient method has been proposed for a case-control study to estimate the genetic and environmental main effects and their interactions, which exploits the assumptions of gene-environment independence and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. To estimate the absolute and relative risks, one needs to resort to an alternative design: the case-base study. In this paper, the authors show how to analyze a case-base study under the above dual assumptions. This approach is based on a conditional logistic regression of case-counterfactual controls matched data. It can be easily fitted with readily available statistical packages. When the dual assumptions are met, the method is approximately unbiased and has adequate coverage probabilities for confidence intervals. It also results in smaller variances and shorter confidence intervals as compared with a previous method for a case-base study which imposes neither assumption.

  2. Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

    2012-01-01

    The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

  3. The effect of selection on genetic parameter estimates

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Unknown

    South African Society of Animal Science. The South African Journal of Animal Science is available online at http://www.sasas.co.za/Sajas.html. 107. The effect of selection on genetic parameter estimates. R. van Dyk. 1. , F.W.C. Neser. 1# and F.H. Kanfer. 2. 1 Department of Animal Science, University of the Free State, P.O. ...

  4. Using physiologically based pharmacokinetic models to estimate the health risk of mixtures of trihalomethanes from reclaimed water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Zhiguang; Zang, Xue; Zhang, Ying

    2015-03-21

    To estimate the health risk of mixture of trihalomethanes (THMs) from reclaimed water during toilet flushing, the interaction-based Hazard Index (HI(interaction-based)) and the mixture carcinogenic risk (CRM) according to tissue dose were conducted through the integrated use of both the exposure concentrations model and the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of THMs. Monte Carlo simulations were employed to implement the probabilistic risk analysis and sensitivity analysis. Nine samples were analyzed, which were collected from J Water Reclamation Plant (JWRP) in Tianjin of China. The results indicated that the mean HI(interaction-based) (=0.85) was lower than the acceptable risk level (=1). The probability that the HI(interaction-based) exceeded the acceptable risk level is 22.97%. For carcinogenic risk, the CRM ranges from 9.41×10(-7) to 3.54×10(-5), with a mean of 5.49×10(-6). Moreover, the probability of exceeding the acceptable risk level (1×10(-6)) is near 100%. And the values of HI(interaction-based) from sample no. 1, 5, and 7 exceeded 1, while the values of CRM for all samples exceeded 1×10(-6). Consequently, the reclaimed water used for flushing toilets should be paid more attention, though non-carcinogenic effect is relatively small. Furthermore, the concentrations of DBCM had greater impact on both the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk based on sensitivity analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk factors and effective management of preeclampsia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    English FA

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fred A English,1 Louise C Kenny,1 Fergus P McCarthy1,2 1Irish Centre for Fetal and Neonatal Translational Research (INFANT, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland; 2Women’s Health Academic Centre, King's Health Partners, St Thomas' Hospital, London, UK Abstract: Preeclampsia, a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy is estimated to complicate 2%–8% of pregnancies and remains a principal cause of maternal and fetal morbidity and mortality. Preeclampsia may present at any gestation but is more commonly encountered in the third trimester. Multiple risk factors have been documented, including: family history, nulliparity, egg donation, diabetes, and obesity. Significant progress has been made in developing tests to predict risk of preeclampsia in pregnancy, but these remain confined to clinical trial settings and center around measuring angiogenic profiles, including placental growth factor or newer tests involving metabolomics. Less progress has been made in developing new treatments and therapeutic targets, and aspirin remains one of the few agents shown to consistently reduce the risk of developing preeclampsia. This review serves to discuss recent advances in risk factor identification, prediction techniques, and management of preeclampsia in antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal patients. Keywords: pregnancy, treatment, risk reduction, prediction

  6. Estimating exposures in the asphalt industry for an international epidemiological cohort study of cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstyn, Igor; Boffetta, Paolo; Kauppinen, Timo; Heikkilä, Pirjo; Svane, Ole; Partanen, Timo; Stücker, Isabelle; Frentzel-Beyme, Rainer; Ahrens, Wolfgang; Merzenich, Hiltrud; Heederik, Dick; Hooiveld, Mariëtte; Langård, Sverre; Randem, Britt G; Järvholm, Bengt; Bergdahl, Ingvar; Shaham, Judith; Ribak, Joseph; Kromhout, Hans

    2003-01-01

    An exposure matrix (EM) for known and suspected carcinogens was required for a multicenter international cohort study of cancer risk and bitumen among asphalt workers. Production characteristics in companies enrolled in the study were ascertained through use of a company questionnaire (CQ). Exposures to coal tar, bitumen fume, organic vapor, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, diesel fume, silica, and asbestos were assessed semi-quantitatively using information from CQs, expert judgment, and statistical models. Exposures of road paving workers to bitumen fume, organic vapor, and benzo(a)pyrene were estimated quantitatively by applying regression models, based on monitoring data, to exposure scenarios identified by the CQs. Exposures estimates were derived for 217 companies enrolled in the cohort, plus the Swedish asphalt paving industry in general. Most companies were engaged in road paving and asphalt mixing, but some also participated in general construction and roofing. Coal tar use was most common in Denmark and The Netherlands, but the practice is now obsolete. Quantitative estimates of exposure to bitumen fume, organic vapor, and benzo(a)pyrene for pavers, and semi-quantitative estimates of exposure to these agents among all subjects were strongly correlated. Semi-quantitative estimates of exposure to bitumen fume and coal tar exposures were only moderately correlated. EM assessed non-monotonic historical decrease in exposures to all agents assessed except silica and diesel exhaust. We produced a data-driven EM using methodology that can be adapted for other multicenter studies. Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Estimating cancer risk in relation to tritium exposure from routine operation of a nuclear-generating station in Pickering, Ontario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanigaratne, S; Holowaty, E; Jiang, H; Norwood, T A; Pietrusiak, M A; Brown, P

    2013-09-01

    Evidence suggests that current levels of tritium emissions from CANDU reactors in Canada are not related to adverse health effects. However, these studies lack tritium-specific dose data and have small numbers of cases. The purpose of our study was to determine whether tritium emitted from a nuclear-generating station during routine operation is associated with risk of cancer in Pickering, Ontario. A retrospective cohort was formed through linkage of Pickering and north Oshawa residents (1985) to incident cancer cases (1985-2005). We examined all sites combined, leukemia, lung, thyroid and childhood cancers (6-19 years) for males and females as well as female breast cancer. Tritium estimates were based on an atmospheric dispersion model, incorporating characteristics of annual tritium emissions and meteorology. Tritium concentration estimates were assigned to each cohort member based on exact location of residence. Person-years analysis was used to determine whether observed cancer cases were higher than expected. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to determine whether tritium was associated with radiation-sensitive cancers in Pickering. Person-years analysis showed female childhood cancer cases to be significantly higher than expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08-3.38). The issue of multiple comparisons is the most likely explanation for this finding. Cox models revealed that female lung cancer was significantly higher in Pickering versus north Oshawa (HR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.23-4.46) and that tritium was not associated with increased risk. The improved methodology used in this study adds to our understanding of cancer risks associated with low-dose tritium exposure. Tritium estimates were not associated with increased risk of radiationsensitive cancers in Pickering.

  8. Estimating peer effects in networks with peer encouragement designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckles, Dean; Kizilcec, René F; Bakshy, Eytan

    2016-07-05

    Peer effects, in which the behavior of an individual is affected by the behavior of their peers, are central to social science. Because peer effects are often confounded with homophily and common external causes, recent work has used randomized experiments to estimate effects of specific peer behaviors. These experiments have often relied on the experimenter being able to randomly modulate mechanisms by which peer behavior is transmitted to a focal individual. We describe experimental designs that instead randomly assign individuals' peers to encouragements to behaviors that directly affect those individuals. We illustrate this method with a large peer encouragement design on Facebook for estimating the effects of receiving feedback from peers on posts shared by focal individuals. We find evidence for substantial effects of receiving marginal feedback on multiple behaviors, including giving feedback to others and continued posting. These findings provide experimental evidence for the role of behaviors directed at specific individuals in the adoption and continued use of communication technologies. In comparison, observational estimates differ substantially, both underestimating and overestimating effects, suggesting that researchers and policy makers should be cautious in relying on them.

  9. Comparison of methods for estimating the attributable risk in the context of survival analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malamine Gassama

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The attributable risk (AR measures the proportion of disease cases that can be attributed to an exposure in the population. Several definitions and estimation methods have been proposed for survival data. Methods Using simulations, we compared four methods for estimating AR defined in terms of survival functions: two nonparametric methods based on Kaplan-Meier’s estimator, one semiparametric based on Cox’s model, and one parametric based on the piecewise constant hazards model, as well as one simpler method based on estimated exposure prevalence at baseline and Cox’s model hazard ratio. We considered a fixed binary exposure with varying exposure probabilities and strengths of association, and generated event times from a proportional hazards model with constant or monotonic (decreasing or increasing Weibull baseline hazard, as well as from a nonproportional hazards model. We simulated 1,000 independent samples of size 1,000 or 10,000. The methods were compared in terms of mean bias, mean estimated standard error, empirical standard deviation and 95% confidence interval coverage probability at four equally spaced time points. Results Under proportional hazards, all five methods yielded unbiased results regardless of sample size. Nonparametric methods displayed greater variability than other approaches. All methods showed satisfactory coverage except for nonparametric methods at the end of follow-up for a sample size of 1,000 especially. With nonproportional hazards, nonparametric methods yielded similar results to those under proportional hazards, whereas semiparametric and parametric approaches that both relied on the proportional hazards assumption performed poorly. These methods were applied to estimate the AR of breast cancer due to menopausal hormone therapy in 38,359 women of the E3N cohort. Conclusion In practice, our study suggests to use the semiparametric or parametric approaches to estimate AR as a function of

  10. Comparison of methods for estimating the attributable risk in the context of survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassama, Malamine; Bénichou, Jacques; Dartois, Laureen; Thiébaut, Anne C M

    2017-01-23

    The attributable risk (AR) measures the proportion of disease cases that can be attributed to an exposure in the population. Several definitions and estimation methods have been proposed for survival data. Using simulations, we compared four methods for estimating AR defined in terms of survival functions: two nonparametric methods based on Kaplan-Meier's estimator, one semiparametric based on Cox's model, and one parametric based on the piecewise constant hazards model, as well as one simpler method based on estimated exposure prevalence at baseline and Cox's model hazard ratio. We considered a fixed binary exposure with varying exposure probabilities and strengths of association, and generated event times from a proportional hazards model with constant or monotonic (decreasing or increasing) Weibull baseline hazard, as well as from a nonproportional hazards model. We simulated 1,000 independent samples of size 1,000 or 10,000. The methods were compared in terms of mean bias, mean estimated standard error, empirical standard deviation and 95% confidence interval coverage probability at four equally spaced time points. Under proportional hazards, all five methods yielded unbiased results regardless of sample size. Nonparametric methods displayed greater variability than other approaches. All methods showed satisfactory coverage except for nonparametric methods at the end of follow-up for a sample size of 1,000 especially. With nonproportional hazards, nonparametric methods yielded similar results to those under proportional hazards, whereas semiparametric and parametric approaches that both relied on the proportional hazards assumption performed poorly. These methods were applied to estimate the AR of breast cancer due to menopausal hormone therapy in 38,359 women of the E3N cohort. In practice, our study suggests to use the semiparametric or parametric approaches to estimate AR as a function of time in cohort studies if the proportional hazards assumption appears

  11. Questionnaire assessment of estimated radiation effects upon military task performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glickman, A.S.; Winne, P.S.; Morgan, B.B. Jr.; Moe, R.B.

    1984-04-01

    One hundred twenty-five supervisors in four types of U.S. Army combat systems estimated the degree of degradation of military tasks for 30 descriptive symptom complexes associated with various radiation exposures. Results indicated that (a) the relative order of symptom effects were highly consistent across positions and the types of systems, (b) performances were expected to be deleteriously affected under most illness conditions, even mild ones, but incapacitation was not anticipated until illness conditions became quite severe, and (c) the most important factors in estimating performances were fluid loss and fatigability/weakness.

  12. IC space radiation effects experimental simulation and estimation methods

    CERN Document Server

    Chumakov, A I; Telets, V A; Gerasimov, V F; Yanenko, A V; Sogoyan, A V

    1999-01-01

    Laboratory test simulation methods are developed for IC response prediction to space radiation. The minimum set of radiation simulators is proposed to investigate IC failures and upsets under space radiation. The accelerated test technique of MOS ICs degradation estimation are developed for low intensity irradiation taking into account temperature variations as well as latent degradation effects. Two-parameter cross section functions are adapted to describe the ion- and proton-induced single event upsets. Non-focused laser irradiation is found to be applicable for single event latchup threshold estimation.

  13. Terrestrial Gamma Radiation Exposure Measurement and Risk Estimates in the Environments of Major Industries In Ota, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abodunrin Oluwasayo Peter

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available When fast estimates are required, the in-situ method is more appropriate as this allows for quick results; preventing further exposure of the public and permitting quick intervention. Measurements of the terrestrial gamma radiation exposure have been carried out in the environments of major industries in Ota using a portable survey meter. The motivation for this study resulted from the uncertainty in the general public opinion on the effect of the presence, and activities of some of these industries in their environment. Measurements were taken twice daily within the vicinity of each industry to determine the dose levels. The mean values obtained range from 0.11 – 1.80 µSv/h. These values are within the results obtained from normal background areas except for site number 10. Annual effective dose values range from 0.25 – 5.21 mSv with a mean value of 1.21 mSv. Routine activities in some of these environments may have contributed significantly to the ambient natural background radiation resulting in high values as obtained in some of these locations. The total risks disparately estimated for cancer and genetic effects resulting from the results obtained range from 0.17 x 10-4 – 3.80 x 10-4 with a mean value of 0.94 x 10-4. These levels are within the range of the average annual risk for accidental death for all industries.

  14. Practice effects distort translational validity estimates for a Neurocognitive Battery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Ibtihal; Tobar, Salwa; Elassy, Mai; Mansour, Hader; Chen, Kehui; Wood, Joel; Gur, Ruben C; Gur, Raquel E; El Bahaei, Wafaa; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit

    2015-01-01

    With the globalization of biomedical research and the advent of "precision medicine," there is increased need for translation of neuropsychological tests, such as computerized batteries that can be incorporated in large-scale genomic studies. Estimates of translational validity are obtained by administering the test in the original and the translated versions to bilingual individuals. We investigated the translation of a neuropsychological battery from English to Arabic and how practice effects influence translational validity estimates. The Penn computerized neurocognitive battery (Penn CNB) includes tests that were validated with functional neuroimaging and provides measures of accuracy and speed of performance in several cognitive domains. To develop an Arabic version of the CNB, the English version was translated into Arabic, then back translated and revised. The Arabic and the original English versions were administered in a randomized crossover design to bilingual participants (N = 22). Performance varied by cognitive domain, but generally improved at the second session regardless of the language of the initial test. When performance on the English and Arabic version was compared, significant positive correlations were detected for accuracy in 8/13 cognitive domains and for speed in 4/13 domains (r = .02 to .97). When the practice estimates using linear models were incorporated, the translational validity estimates improved substantially (accuracy, r = .50-.96, speed, r = .63-.92, all correlations, p = .05 or better). While crossover designs control for order effects on average performance, practice effects, regardless of language, still need to be removed to obtain estimates of translational validity. When practice effect is controlled for, the Arabic and English versions of the Penn-CNB are well correlated, and the Arabic version is suitable for use in research.

  15. Nonparametric Estimation of Distributions in Random Effects Models

    KAUST Repository

    Hart, Jeffrey D.

    2011-01-01

    We propose using minimum distance to obtain nonparametric estimates of the distributions of components in random effects models. A main setting considered is equivalent to having a large number of small datasets whose locations, and perhaps scales, vary randomly, but which otherwise have a common distribution. Interest focuses on estimating the distribution that is common to all datasets, knowledge of which is crucial in multiple testing problems where a location/scale invariant test is applied to every small dataset. A detailed algorithm for computing minimum distance estimates is proposed, and the usefulness of our methodology is illustrated by a simulation study and an analysis of microarray data. Supplemental materials for the article, including R-code and a dataset, are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association.

  16. Estimation of Hypertension Risk from Lifestyle Factors and Health Profile: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuoyuan Zheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies.

  17. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  18. A new methodology for estimating rainfall aggressiveness risk based on daily rainfall records for multi-decennial periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Barrón, Leoncio; Morales, Julia; Sousa, Arturo

    2018-02-15

    The temporal irregularity of rainfall, characteristic of a Mediterranean climate, corresponds to the irregularity of the environmental effects on soil. We used aggressiveness as an indicator to quantify the potential environmental impact of rainfall. However, quantifying rainfall aggressiveness is conditioned by the lack of sub-hourly frequency records on which intensity models are based. On the other hand, volume models are characterized by a lack of precision in the treatment of heavy rainfall events because they are based on monthly series. Therefore, in this study, we propose a new methodology for estimating rainfall aggressiveness risk. A new synthesis parameter based on reformulation using daily data of the Modified Fournier and Oliver's Precipitation Concentration indices is defined. The weighting of both indices for calculating the aggressiveness risk is established by multiple regression with respect to the local erosion R factor estimated in the last decades. We concluded that the proposed methodology overcomes the previously mentioned limitations of the traditional intensity and volume models and provides accurate information; therefore, it is appropriate for determining potential rainfall impact over long time periods. Specifically, we applied this methodology to the daily rainfall time series from the San Fernando Observatory (1870-2010) in southwest Europe. An interannual aggressiveness risk series was generated, which allowed analysis of its evolution and determination of the temporal variability. The results imply that environmental management can use data from long-term historical series as a reference for decision making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

  20. Estimation of Esfarayen Farmers Risk Aversion Coefficient and Its Influencing Factors (Nonparametric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Nematollahi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Due to existence of the risk and uncertainty in agriculture, risk management is crucial for management in agriculture. Therefore the present study was designed to determine the risk aversion coefficient for Esfarayens farmers. Materials and Methods: The following approaches have been utilized to assess risk attitudes: (1 direct elicitation of utility functions, (2 experimental procedures in which individuals are presented with hypothetical questionnaires regarding risky alternatives with or without real payments and (3: Inference from observation of economic behavior. In this paper, we focused on approach (3: inference from observation of economic behavior, based on this assumption of existence of the relationship between the actual behavior of a decision maker and the behavior predicted from empirically specified models. A new non-parametric method and the QP method were used to calculate the coefficient of risk aversion. We maximized the decision maker expected utility with the E-V formulation (Freund, 1956. Ideally, in constructing a QP model, the variance-covariance matrix should be formed for each individual farmer. For this purpose, a sample of 100 farmers was selected using random sampling and their data about 14 products of years 2008- 2012 were assembled. The lowlands of Esfarayen were used since within this area, production possibilities are rather homogeneous. Results and Discussion: The results of this study showed that there was low correlation between some of the activities, which implies opportunities for income stabilization through diversification. With respect to transitory income, Ra, vary from 0.000006 to 0.000361 and the absolute coefficient of risk aversion in our sample were 0.00005. The estimated Ra values vary considerably from farm to farm. The results showed that the estimated Ra for the subsample existing of 'non-wealthy' farmers was 0.00010. The subsample with farmers in the 'wealthy' group had an

  1. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in acute coronary syndromes: Different equations, different mortality risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Inês; Caetano, Francisca; Barra, Sérgio; Madeira, Marta; Mota, Paula; Leitão-Marques, António

    2016-06-01

    Renal dysfunction is a powerful predictor of adverse outcomes in patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome. Three new glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equations recently emerged, based on serum creatinine (CKD-EPIcreat), serum cystatin C (CKD-EPIcyst) or a combination of both (CKD-EPIcreat/cyst), and they are currently recommended to confirm the presence of renal dysfunction. Our aim was to analyse the predictive value of these new estimated GFR (eGFR) equations regarding mid-term mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome, and compare them with the traditional Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD-4) formula. 801 patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome (age 67.3±13.3 years, 68.5% male) and followed for 23.6±9.8 months were included. For each equation, patient risk stratification was performed based on eGFR values: high-risk group (eGFRformula, the CKD-EPIcyst equation accurately reclassified a significant percentage of patients into more appropriate risk categories (net reclassification improvement index of 11.9% (p=0.003)). The CKD-EPIcyst equation added prognostic power to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of mid-term mortality. The CKD-EPIcyst equation provides a novel and improved method for assessing the mid-term mortality risk in patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome, outperforming the most widely used formula (MDRD-4), and improving the predictive value of the GRACE score. These results reinforce the added value of cystatin C as a risk marker in these patients. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  2. Development of Indicator Based on Oil Analysis for Estimating Risk Level of Power Transformers

    OpenAIRE

    Poišs, G; Vītoliņa, S; Mārks, J

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment for power transformers has long been an effective tool to analyze transformer conditions in order to prevent damage on transformers, extend transformer’s life time and reduce maintenance costs. Various parameters can be evaluated, and decision can be made manually or with the help of mathematical model. A new mathematical risk-assessment model for power transformers is being developed for power system in Latvia, based on specific maintenance features and 4 indicators: dissolve...

  3. Portfolio Value at Risk Estimate for Crude Oil Markets: A Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kin Keung Lai

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In the increasingly globalized economy these days, the major crude oil markets worldwide are seeing higher level of integration, which results in higher level of dependency and transmission of risks among different markets. Thus the risk of the typical multi-asset crude oil portfolio is influenced by dynamic correlation among different assets, which has both normal and transient behaviors. This paper proposes a novel multivariate wavelet denoising based approach for estimating Portfolio Value at Risk (PVaR. The multivariate wavelet analysis is introduced to analyze the multi-scale behaviors of the correlation among different markets and the portfolio volatility behavior in the higher dimensional time scale domain. The heterogeneous data and noise behavior are addressed in the proposed multi-scale denoising based PVaR estimation algorithm, which also incorporatesthe mainstream time series to address other well known data features such as autocorrelation and volatility clustering. Empirical studies suggest that the proposed algorithm outperforms the benchmark ExponentialWeighted Moving Average (EWMA and DCC-GARCH model, in terms of conventional performance evaluation criteria for the model reliability.

  4. An estimation of squamous cell carcinoma risk from ultraviolet radiation emitted by fluorescent lamps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lytle, C D; Cyr, W H; Beer, J Z; Miller, S A; James, R H; Landry, R J; Jacobs, M E; Kaczmarek, R G; Sharkness, C M; Gaylor, D

    The risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) from ultraviolet radiation (UV) emitted by unfiltered fluorescent lamps was assessed. The assessment employed a mathematical power model based on human epidemiological data, which relates the SCC incidence in the United States white population to ambient solar UV. The annual numbers of new SCC on anatomical sites chronically exposed to solar UV (head/face/neck and hands) were estimated for indoor workers. Then the number of SCC that may be caused by additional UV exposure from indoor fluorescent lighting was estimated: the lifetime exposure of indoor workers to typical fluorescent lighting (if unfiltered) may add 3.9% (1.6-12%) to the risk from solar UV, resulting in the induction of an additional 1500 (600-4500) SCC per annum in the United States. This calculated projection must be compared with the 110,000 SCC caused by solar exposure. Thus, this analysis suggests there may be a small increased risk of SCC from exposure to UV-emitting fluorescent lamps.

  5. Breast cancer size estimation with MRI in BRCA mutation carriers and other high risk patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mann, R.M., E-mail: r.mann@rad.umcn.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Radiology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Bult, P., E-mail: p.bult@path.umcn.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Pathology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Laarhoven, H.W.M. van, E-mail: h.vanlaarhoven@amc.uva.nl [Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Department of Medical Oncology, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Medical Oncology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Span, P.N., E-mail: p.span@rther.umcn.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Radiation Oncology, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Schlooz, M., E-mail: m.schlooz@chir.umcn.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Surgery, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Veltman, J., E-mail: j.veltman@zgt.nl [Hospital group Twente (ZGT), Department of Radiology, Almelo (Netherlands); Hoogerbrugge, N., E-mail: n.hoogerbrugge@gen.umcn.nl [Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Human Genetics, Nijmegen (Netherlands)

    2013-09-15

    Objective: To assess the value of breast MRI in size assessment of breast cancers in high risk patients, including those with a BRCA 1 or 2 mutation. Guidelines recommend invariably breast MRI screening for these patients and therapy is thus based on these findings. However, the accuracy of breast MRI for staging purposes is only tested in sporadic cancers. Methods: We assessed concordance of radiologic staging using MRI with histopathology in 49 tumors in 46 high risk patients (23 BRCA1, 12 BRCA2 and 11 Non-BRCA patients). The size of the total tumor area (TTA) was compared to pathology. In invasive carcinomas (n = 45) the size of the largest focus (LF) was also addressed. Results: Correlation of MRI measurements with pathology was 0.862 for TTA and 0.793 for LF. TTA was underestimated in 8(16%), overestimated in 5(10%), and correctly measured in 36(73%) cases. LF was underestimated in 4(9%), overestimated in 5(11%), and correctly measured in 36(80%) cases. Impact of BRCA 1 or 2 mutations on the quality of size estimation was not observed. Conclusions: Tumor size estimation using breast MRI in high risk patients is comparable to its performance in sporadic cancers. Therefore, breast MRI can safely be used for treatment planning.

  6. On the relationship between time-series studies, dynamic population studies, and estimating loss of life due to short-term exposure to environmental risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnett, Richard T; Dewanji, Anup; Dominici, Francesca; Goldberg, Mark S; Cohen, Aaron; Krewski, Daniel

    2003-07-01

    There is a growing concern that short-term exposure to combustion-related air pollution is associated with increased risk of death. This finding is based largely on time-series studies that estimate associations between daily variations in ambient air pollution concentrations and in the number of nonaccidental deaths within a community. Because these results are not based on cohort or dynamic population designs, where individuals are followed in time, it has been suggested that estimates of effect from these time-series studies cannot be used to determine the amount of life lost because of short-term exposures. We show that results from time-series studies are equivalent to estimates obtained from a dynamic population when each individual's survival experience can be summarized as the daily number of deaths. This occurs when the following conditions are satisfied: a) the environmental covariates vary in time and not between individuals; b) on any given day, the probability of death is small; c) on any given day and after adjusting for known risk factors for mortality such age, sex, smoking habits, and environmental exposures, each subject of the at-risk population has the same probability of death; d) environmental covariates have a common effect on mortality of all members of at-risk population; and e) the averages of individual risk factors, such as smoking habits, over the at-risk population vary smoothly with time. Under these conditions, the association between temporal variation in the environmental covariates and the survival experience of members of the dynamic population can be estimated by regressing the daily number of deaths on the daily value of the environmental covariates, as is done in time-series mortality studies. Issues in extrapolating risk estimates based on time-series studies in one population to estimate the amount of life lost in another population are also discussed.

  7. Estimates of lifetime infertility from three states: the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M

    2015-07-01

    Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Male and female adult residents aged 18-50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non-assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals.

  8. Estimates of Lifetime Infertility from Three States: The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J.; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Methods Male and female adult residents aged 18–50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. Results The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non–assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). Conclusion State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals. PMID:26172998

  9. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  10. The 2016 Al-Mishraq sulphur plant fire: source and risk area estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Björnham, Oscar; von Schoenberg, Pontus; Waleij, Annica; Liljedahl, Birgitta; Brännström, Niklas

    2016-01-01

    On October 20:th 2016, Daesh (Islamic State) set fire to the sulphur production site Al-Mishraq as the battle of Mosul became more intense. A huge plume of toxic sulphur dioxide and hydrogen sulphide caused comprising casualties. The intensity of the release was reaching levels of minor volcanic eruptions which was observed by several satellites. By investigation of the measurement data from the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura, and Meteosat-10 satellites we have estimated the time-dependent source term for sulphur dioxide which in total amounted to 271 kton released into the atmosphere during six days. The long-range dispersion model PELLO was utilized to simulate the atmospheric transport over the Middle East. The ground-level concentrations predicted by the simulation were validated against observation from the Turkey National Air Quality Monitoring Network. Finally, the simulation data provided an estimate of the risk area using a probit analysis.

  11. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

    2016-04-01

    In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Formula and scale for body surface area estimation in high-risk infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Youngmee

    2010-12-01

    Advances in medical technology and the health sciences have lead to a rapid increase in the prevalence and morbidity of high-risk infants with chronic or permanent sequels such as the birth of early preterm infants. A suitable formula is therefore needed for body surface area (BSA) estimation for high-risk infants to more accurately devise therapeutic regimes in clinical practice. A cohort study involving 5014 high-risk infants was conducted to develop a suitable formula for estimating BSA using four of the existing formulas in the literature. BSA of high-risk infants was calculated using the four BSA equations (Boyd-BSA, Dubois-BSA, Meban-BSA, Mosteller-BSA), from which a new calculation, Mean-BSA, was arithmetically derived as a reference BSA measure. Multiple-regression was performed using nonlinear least squares curve fitting corresponding to the trend line and the new equation, Neo-BSA, developed using Excel and SPSS 17.0. The Neo-BSA equation was constructed as follows: Neo-BSA = 5.520 x W(0.5526) x L(0.300). With the assumption of the least square root relation between weight and length, a BSA scale using only weight was fabricated specifically for clinical applications where weight is more available in high-risk infant populations than is length. The validity of Neo-BSA was evaluated against Meban-BSA, the best of the four equations for high-risk infants, as there is a similarity of subjects in the two studies. The other formulas revealed substantial variances in BSA compared to Neo-BSA. This study developed a new surface area equation, Neo-BSA, as the most suitable formula for BSA measurement of high-risk infants in modern-day societies, where an emerging population of newborns with shorten gestational ages are becoming more prevalent as a result of new advances in the health sciences and new development of reproductive technologies. In particular, a scale for 400-7000 g body weight babies derived from the Neo-BSA equation has the clinical advantage of

  13. [Performance of different methods of estimating risk screening for chromosomal anomalies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avătăjitei, Maria-Cristina; Moscalu, Mihaela; Martiniuc, Violeta; Onofriescu, M

    2012-01-01

    In the last 10 years, several studies have been carried out on additional ultrasound markers in the first trimester of pregnancy in order to improve detection rate of fetal numerical chromosome abnormalities (aneuploidy) and to reduce the rate of false-positive diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of various recommendations for which amniocentesis was performed followed by FISH testing in the diagnosis of aneuploidy. These evaluations were conducted in order to determine whether ultrasound aspects are associated with fetal aneuploidy and to estimate the risk level of individual markers using probability estimation analysis. The study has been carried out at the Clinical Hospital of Obstetrics and Gynecology "CuzaVodă" Iaşi, at the Laboratory of cytogenetic--prenatal diagnosis, during January 2004-December 2011, on a target group of 1406 pregnant women. As part of this study, 1411 amniocentesis were performed. increased efficiency of screening for fetal aneuploidy in the first trimester of pregnancy is obtained through combined method (maternal age over 35 years, increased nuchal translucency and the presence of double test risk) which has 100% detection rate and a rate false-positive result of 0%. The efficiency of this method is provided also by the relatively high risk (RR = 17.2) and its specificity (Sp = 100%). Making the assessment following the study false positive rate, it appears that a good method of risk assessment for aneuploidy is the combined evaluation of increased nuchal translucency (NT) with maternal age over 35 years (specificity 99.5%, a detection rate of 40% false positive rate of 0.45% and a relative risk of 7.09 for the presence of aneuploidy). The achievement of a correct prenatal diagnosis and the increase of the method efficiency, requires a correct selection of cases with aneuploidy risk assessment, based on the results of ultrasound and biochemical (double test risk) investigations correlated with

  14. ESTIMATION OF AGING EFFECTS OF PILES IN MALAYSIAN OFFSHORE LOCATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JERIN M. GEORGE

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available An increasing demand for extending life and subsequently higher loading requirements of offshore jacket platforms are among the key problems faced by the offshore industry. The Aging effect has been proved to increase the axial capacity of piles, but proper methods to estimate and quantify these effects have not been developed. Borehole data from ten different Malaysian offshore locations have been analysed and they were employed to estimate the setup factor for different locations using AAU method. The setup factors found were used in the Skov and Denver equation to calculate capacity ratios of the offshore piles. The study showed that there will be an average improvement in the axial capacity of offshore piles by 42.2% and 34.9% for clayey and mixed soils respectively after a time equal to the normal design life (25 years of a jacket platform.

  15. Prevalence of peripheral artery disease and its associated risk factors in Spain: The ESTIME Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanes, J I; Cairols, M A; Marrugat, J

    2009-02-01

    Several studies have demonstrated that patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD), are at an increased risk of morbidity and mortality compared with those without PAD. However, few population-based studies have addressed the prevalence of PAD and intermittent claudication (IC). We assessed the prevalence of and the factors associated with PAD and IC in the Spanish population. A cross sectional study with 1324 participants aged 55 to 84 years randomly selected from the census was conducted in 12 Spanish regions. The presence of PAD and IC was determined by an ankle-brachial index (ABI) ESTIME study confirms the high prevalence of asymptomatic PAD, and its relation with typical cardiovascular risk factors. ABI provides early diagnosis before claudication symptoms in a high proportion of patients. ABI could contribute to developing early prevention programmes.

  16. [Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

    2006-01-14

    To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

  17. IT-OSRA: applying ensemble simulations to estimate the oil spill risk associated to operational and accidental oil spills

    OpenAIRE

    Sepp Neves, Antonio Augusto; Pinardi, Nadia; Martins, Flavio

    2016-01-01

    Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) are widely employed to support decision making regarding oil spill risks. This article adapts the ISO-compliant OSRA framework developed by Sepp Neves et al. (J Environ Manag 159:158–168, 2015) to estimate risks in a complex scenario where uncertainties related to the meteo-oceanographic conditions, where and how a spill could happen exist and the risk computation methodology is not yet well established (ensemble oil spill modeling). The improved method was ...

  18. A Study on the Estimation Method of Risk Based Area for Jetty Safety Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byeong-Wook Nam

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the importance of safety-monitoring systems was highlighted by the unprecedented collision between a ship and a jetty in Yeosu. Accordingly, in this study, we introduce the concept of risk based area and develop a methodology for a jetty safety-monitoring system. By calculating the risk based areas for a ship and a jetty, the risk of collision was evaluated. To calculate the risk based areas, we employed an automatic identification system for the ship, stopping-distance equations, and the regulation velocity near the jetty. In this paper, we suggest a risk calculation method for jetty safety monitoring that can determine the collision probability in real time and predict collisions using the amount of overlap between the two calculated risk based areas. A test was conducted at a jetty control center at GS Caltex, and the effectiveness of the proposed risk calculation method was verified. The method is currently applied to the jetty-monitoring system at GS Caltex in Yeosu for the prevention of collisions.

  19. Estimating Effective Subsidy Rates of Student Aid Programs

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey H. CHEN

    2008-01-01

    Every year millions of high school students and their parents in the US are asked to fill out complicated financial aid application forms. However, few studies have estimated the responsiveness of government financial aid schemes to changes in financial needs of the students. This paper identifies the effective subsidy rate (ESR) of student aid, as defined by the coefficient of financial needs in the regression of financial aid. The ESR measures the proportion of subsidy of student aid under ...

  20. Estimates of cancer deaths attributable to behavioural risk factors in Italy, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battisti, Francesca; Carreras, Giulia; Grassi, Tommaso; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    "Non-communicable diseases cause more than 80% of deaths in europe and, among these, 20% are caused by cancer. Modifiable lifestyle factors considered in the italian national programme "Guadagnare salute" (Gaining health), such as tobacco smoking, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, overweight, and excessive alcohol use, are amongst the major causes of cancer deaths. The aims of this study was to estimate the number of deaths attributable to lifestyle factors for italy and for italian regions in 2013 and to describe its variation in relation to the regional prevalence of risk factors exposure. For Italy and for each italian region, deaths attributable to lifestyle factors were estimated using the methodology of the Global Burden of disease (GBd) study. italian mortality data of 2013 and risks attributable to these lifestyle factors for each cancer site for italy from the GBd study were used. Prevalence of exposure to lifestyles in Italy and in each Italian Region was collected for the period 2008-2013. In 2013, at least 66,605 cancer deaths in italy were attributable to lifestyle factors, accounting for 37.9% of all cancer deaths: 34.1% of cancer deaths in men and 9.0% in women were attributable to smoking; in men and women, respectively, 3.3% and 2.8% were attributable to excessive alcohol consumption; 5.3 % and 6.7% to overweight; 10.1% and 7.1% to dietary risk factors; 1.9% and 4.2% to physical inactivity. A moderate variability of percentage of deaths attributable to modifi able lifestyle factors by region was also detected due to different prevalence values of exposure to lifestyles occurred in last decades. At least 45,000 cancer deaths in men and 21,000 in women occurred in 2013 were attributable to modifi able risk factors, whose prevalence varied by region and which could be averted through the implementation of primary prevention interventions."

  1. A review of consanguinity in Ireland--estimation of frequency and approaches to mitigate risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, P

    2016-02-01

    Over half of marriages are consanguineous in some countries, and about 10 % of children worldwide have consanguineous parents. Perceived benefits of consanguineous marriage (CM) include preservation of tradition, stronger family ties, financial advantages, and bride protection. Potential harms include autosomal recessive disorders, complex congenital malformations, stillbirths, postnatal mortality. There have been no population-based data published on frequency of CM in Ireland since 1970. International prevalence figures and published estimates of CM were applied to 2011 Irish Census data to calculate the frequency of CM in at-risk groups. Searches of the published and grey literature were conducted to review evidence-based approaches to mitigate risks of CM and apply findings to the Irish context. The estimated number of consanguineous couples has grown in subpopulations in Ireland in the past decade, particularly among Pakistanis (>967 couples), Nigerians (418-794 couples) and Indians (54-2099 couples). There are up to 3000 consanguineous couples in the Traveller community. Evidence for approaches to mitigate associated risks supports a three-stranded approach: family-centred genetics services, training and education of healthcare professionals (HCPs), community education programmes. Consanguineous couples desire accurate information for reproductive decisions, but may avoid hospital-based services due to language barriers, poor understanding, stigma. Uptake of genetic counselling and carrier testing is higher if a family-centred approach is provided, ideally through home visits in the couple's preferred language. Targeted education programmes enhance community awareness and have led to declines in CM elsewhere. Education of HCPs is necessary to clarify referral pathways, as many have exaggerated impressions of the genetic risks.

  2. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  3. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

    2016-07-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

  4. Measurement Error Affects Risk Estimates for Recruitment to the Hudson River Stock of Striped Bass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis J. Dunning

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the consequences of ignoring the distinction between measurement error and natural variability in an assessment of risk to the Hudson River stock of striped bass posed by entrainment at the Bowline Point, Indian Point, and Roseton power plants. Risk was defined as the probability that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more, relative to the equilibrium value, at least once during the time periods examined (1, 5, 10, and 15 years. Measurement error, estimated using two abundance indices from independent beach seine surveys conducted on the Hudson River, accounted for 50% of the variability in one index and 56% of the variability in the other. If a measurement error of 50% was ignored and all of the variability in abundance was attributed to natural causes, the risk that recruitment of age-1+ striped bass would decline by 80% or more after 15 years was 0.308 at the current level of entrainment mortality (11%. However, the risk decreased almost tenfold (0.032 if a measurement error of 50% was considered. The change in risk attributable to decreasing the entrainment mortality rate from 11 to 0% was very small (0.009 and similar in magnitude to the change in risk associated with an action proposed in Amendment #5 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic striped bass (0.006— an increase in the instantaneous fishing mortality rate from 0.33 to 0.4. The proposed increase in fishing mortality was not considered an adverse environmental impact, which suggests that potentially costly efforts to reduce entrainment mortality on the Hudson River stock of striped bass are not warranted.

  5. Estimating high-risk castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) using electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Rohini K; Cetin, Karynsa; Pirolli, Melissa; Quigley, Jane; Quach, David; Smith, Paul; Stryker, Scott; Liede, Alexander

    2015-08-01

    Canadian guidelines define castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) at high risk of developing metastases using PSA doubling time (PSADT) electronic health records (EHR), covering 129 urology and 64 oncology practices across the US. We estimated the proportion of prostate cancer patients with evidence of CRPC (consecutive rising PSAs) and subsets that may be at high risk (using several PSA and PSADT cut-points). Among 3121 M0 prostate cancer patients actively treated with ADT, 1188 (38%) had evidence of CRPC. Of these, 712 (60%) qualified as high risk in 2011 based on PSADT < 8 months (equivalent to = 8 months in these data). Men = 65 years were more likely to have evidence of CRPC than younger men, although younger men were more likely to have evidence of high-risk disease. CRPC was more common among men receiving ADT in the oncology setting than the urology setting (48% versus 37%). In this large EHR study with patient-level PSA data, 38% of men with M0 prostate cancer treated with ADT had CRPC. Approximately 60% of M0 CRPC patients may experience a PSADT of < 8 months. These findings require validation in a Canadian patient population.

  6. Operational Definitions of Sexual Orientation and Estimates of Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Derrick D; Blosnich, John R; Farmer, Grant W; Adams, Brian J

    2014-03-01

    Increasing attention to the health of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) populations comes with requisite circumspection about measuring sexual orientation in surveys. However, operationalizing these variables also requires considerable thought. This research sought to document the consequences of different operational definitions of sexual orientation by examining variation in health risk behaviors. Using Massachusetts Youth Risk Behavior Survey data, we examined how operational definitions of sexual behavior and sexual identity influenced differences among three health behaviors known to disparately affect LGB populations: smoking, suicide risk, and methamphetamine use. Sexual behavior and sexual identity were also examined together to explore if they captured unique sources of variability in behavior. Estimates of health disparities changed as a result of using either sexual behavior or sexual identity. Youth who reported their sexual identity as "not sure" also had increased odds of health risk behavior. Disaggregating bisexual identity and behavior from same-sex identity and behavior frequently resulted in the attenuation or elimination of health disparities that would have otherwise been attributable to exclusively same-sex sexual minorities. Finally, sexual behavior and sexual identity explained unique and significant sources of variability in all three health behaviors. Researchers using different operational definitions of sexual orientation could draw different conclusions, even when analyzing the same data, depending upon how they chose to represent sexual orientation in analyses. We discuss implications that these manipulations have on data interpretation and provide specific recommendations for best-practices when analyzing sexual orientation data collected from adolescent populations.

  7. Risk information in support of cost estimates for the Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Section 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelston, G.M.; Jarvis, M.F.; Warren, B.R. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Von Berg, R. [ICF Kaiser Engineers, Inc., Oakland, CA (United States)

    1995-06-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL)(1) effort on the overall Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) project consists of four installation-specific work components performed in succession. These components include (1) development of source terms, 92) collection of data and preparation of environmental settings reports, (3) calculation of unit risk factors, and (4) utilization of the unit risk factors in Automated Remedial Action Methodology (ARAM) for computation of target concentrations and cost estimates. This report documents work completed for the Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for components 2 and 3. The product of this phase of the BEMR project is the development of unit factors (i.e., unit transport factors, unit exposure factors, and unit risk factors). Thousands of these unit factors are gene rated and fill approximately one megabyte of computer information per installation. The final unit risk factors (URF) are transmitted electronically to BEMR-Cost task personnel as input to a computer program (ARAM). Abstracted files and exhibits of the URF information are included in this report. These visual formats are intended to provide a sample of the final task deliverable (the URF files) which can be easily read without a computer.

  8. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergenback, B. [Midwest Technical, Inc. (United States); Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)] [and others

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document.

  9. Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Petrova

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP, capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.

  10. Estimating climate change effects upon flood risk reduction by afforestation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Díaz, R.A.; Querner, E.P.

    2005-01-01

    In areas prone to flooding it is impossible to remove excess water by increasing drainage. Under such conditions a local solution deserves consideration. In this study the impact of afforestation is examined for the Lagunas Encadenadas of Argentina. To assess the sustainability of this intervention,

  11. Work productivity loss and indirect costs associated with new cardiovascular events in high-risk patients with hyperlipidemia: estimates from population-based register data in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banefelt, J; Hallberg, S; Fox, K M; Mesterton, J; Paoli, C J; Johansson, G; Levin, L-Å; Sobocki, P; Gandra, S R

    2016-12-01

    To estimate productivity loss and associated indirect costs in high-risk patients treated for hyperlipidemia who experience cardiovascular (CV) events. Retrospective population-based cohort study conducted using Swedish medical records linked to national registers. Patients were included based on prescriptions of lipid-lowering therapy between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2011 and followed until 31 December 2012 for identification of CV events and estimation of work productivity loss (sick leave and disability pension) and indirect costs. Patients were stratified into two cohorts based on CV risk level: history of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk equivalent. Propensity score matching was applied to compare patients with new events (cases) to patients without new events (controls). The incremental effect of CV events was estimated using a difference-in-differences design, comparing productivity loss among cases and controls during the year before and the year after the cases' event. The incremental effect on indirect costs was largest in the CHD risk equivalent cohort (n = 2946) at €3119 (P value indirect costs. Myocardial infarction (€3465), unstable angina (€2733) and, most notably, ischemic stroke (€6784) yielded substantial incremental cost estimates (P values Indirect costs related to work productivity losses of CV events are substantial in Swedish high-risk patients treated for hyperlipidemia and vary considerably by type of event.

  12. The effect of velocity filtering in pressure estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavazzi, D. E.; Nemes, A.; Schmitter, S.; Coletti, F.

    2017-05-01

    Velocity field measurements allow, in principle, the evaluation of the pressure field by integrating the equations of fluid motion. Unavoidable experimental uncertainty, however, may result in unreliable estimates. In this study, we use the Poisson pressure equation to estimate the relative pressure from experimental velocities, and investigate how pre-processing with smoothing and solenoidal filters affects this estimate. For diffusion dominated laminar flow or for turbulent flow modeled through an eddy viscosity, measurement noise significantly affects the results. In this case, solenoidal filtering provides superior performance over other smoothing approaches, as it preserves the second spatial derivatives of the velocity field. For laminar flows dominated by advection or acceleration components of the pressure gradient, the choice of the filter appears to have little effect under limited noise, while smoothing produces improved relative pressure estimates for higher noise intensities. The above statements are verified using idealized flow conditions, numerical fluid dynamics simulations, and velocity fields from in-vivo and in-vitro magnetic resonance velocimetry.

  13. Comparison of 3 risk estimators to guide initiation of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofori, Sandra; Dodiyi-Manuel, Sotonye; Akpa, Maclean R

    Among high-risk individuals, statins are beneficial for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). In Nigeria, currently, there are no CVD prevention guidelines, so the use of CVD risk estimation to guide statin therapy is left to the discretion of the physician. The objective of the study was to compare 3 CVD risk estimation tools in the evaluation of patients presenting to a tertiary hospital in Nigeria. Cross-sectional study involving 295 patients with any CVD risk factors but not taking statins. Traditional CVD risk factors were assessed with a standard questionnaire and laboratory evaluation. Ten-year CVD risk was estimated with American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ACC/AHA ASCVD) Risk Estimator (2013), Framingham Risk Score (Framingham Risk Score [FRS] 2008), and the World Health Organisation/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction chart for Africa Region D. Kappa statistic was used to determine agreement among the estimators. The mean age was 48.4 ± 10.4 years; 60.7% were females. Risk factors for CVD were hypertension (56.3%), dyslipidemia (41.4%), diabetes (20%), obesity (28.5%), and cigarette smoking (4.4%). In all, 50.2%, 16.9%, and 15.2% were classified as high risk using the ACC/AHA ASCVD Risk Estimator, FRS 2008, and WHO/ISH risk chart, respectively. The agreement was moderate between FRS and WHO/ISH (Kappa 0.414, P < .001) and fair between ACC/AHA Estimator and WHO/ISH (Kappa 0.223, P < .001) and between ACC/AHA Estimator and FRS (Kappa 0.301, P < .001). The considerable variation in prediction of high risk using the 3 tools may lead to underutilization of evidence-based therapy. This underscores the dire need for the development of risk prediction tools derived from our own Nigerian population. Copyright © 2017 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Mesh Size Effects on Fracture Toughness Estimation by Damage Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Shin Beom; Chang, Yoon Suk; Kim, Young Jin [School of Mechanical Engineering, Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Min Chul; Lee, Bong Sang [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-05-15

    The objective of this paper is to investigate mesh size effects on fracture toughness of SA508 carbon steel by damage model. To achieve this goal, a series of finite element analyses are carried out for CT (compact tension) and PCVN (pre-cracked V-notch) specimens. And Weibull stress model are adopted to derive toughness scale diagram. Finally, toughness scale diagram, which considered crack-tip mesh size effects, is derived from comparing estimated fracture toughness data between CT and PCVN specimens under -60 .deg. C and -80 .deg. C.

  15. Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol; Brindle, Peter

    2017-05-23

    Objectives To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors.Design Prospective open cohort study.Setting General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database.Participants 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline.Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status.Main outcome measures Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records.Results 363

  16. Characterization and risk estimate of cancer in patients with primary Sjögren syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito-Zerón, Pilar; Kostov, Belchin; Fraile, Guadalupe; Caravia-Durán, Daniel; Maure, Brenda; Rascón, Francisco-Javier; Zamora, Mónica; Casanovas, Arnau; Lopez-Dupla, Miguel; Ripoll, Mar; Pinilla, Blanca; Fonseca, Eva; Akasbi, Miriam; de la Red, Gloria; Duarte-Millán, Miguel-Angel; Fanlo, Patricia; Guisado-Vasco, Pablo; Pérez-Alvarez, Roberto; Chamorro, Antonio J; Morcillo, César; Jiménez-Heredia, Iratxe; Sánchez-Berná, Isabel; López-Guillermo, Armando; Ramos-Casals, Manuel

    2017-04-17

    The purpose of this study is to characterize the risk of cancer in a large cohort of patients with primary Sjögren syndrome (SjS). We had analyzed the development of cancer in 1300 consecutive patients fulfilling the 2002 SjS classification criteria. The baseline clinical and immunological characteristics and systemic activity (ESSDAI scores) were assessed at diagnosis as predictors of cancer using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusted for age at diagnosis and gender. The sex-and age-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) of cancer were estimated from 2012 Spanish mortality data. After a mean follow-up of 91 months, 127 (9.8%) patients developed 133 cancers. The most frequent type of cancer was B-cell lymphoma (including 27 MALT and 19 non-MALT B-cell lymphomas). Systemic activity at diagnosis of primary SjS correlated with the risk of hematological neoplasia and cryoglobulins with a high risk of either B-cell or non-B-cell lymphoma subtypes. Patients with cytopenias had a high risk of non-MALT B-cell and non-B-cell cancer, while those with low C3 levels had a high risk of MALT lymphomas and those with monoclonal gammopathy and low C4 levels had a high risk of non-MALT lymphomas. The estimated SIR for solid cancer was 1.13 and 11.02 for hematological cancer. SIRs for specific cancers were 36.17 for multiple myeloma and immunoproliferative diseases, 19.41 for Hodgkin lymphoma, 6.04 for other non-Hodgkin lymphomas, 5.17 for thyroid cancer, 4.81 for cancers of the lip and oral cavity, and 2.53 for stomach cancer. One third of cancers developed by patients with primary SjS are B-cell lymphomas. The prognostic factors identified at SjS diagnosis differed according to the subtype of B-cell lymphoma developed. Primary SjS is also associated with the development of some non-hematological cancers (thyroid, oral cavity, and stomach).

  17. Characterization and risk estimate of cancer in patients with primary Sjögren syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilar Brito-Zerón

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this study is to characterize the risk of cancer in a large cohort of patients with primary Sjögren syndrome (SjS. Methods We had analyzed the development of cancer in 1300 consecutive patients fulfilling the 2002 SjS classification criteria. The baseline clinical and immunological characteristics and systemic activity (ESSDAI scores were assessed at diagnosis as predictors of cancer using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusted for age at diagnosis and gender. The sex-and age-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR of cancer were estimated from 2012 Spanish mortality data. Results After a mean follow-up of 91 months, 127 (9.8% patients developed 133 cancers. The most frequent type of cancer was B-cell lymphoma (including 27 MALT and 19 non-MALT B-cell lymphomas. Systemic activity at diagnosis of primary SjS correlated with the risk of hematological neoplasia and cryoglobulins with a high risk of either B-cell or non-B-cell lymphoma subtypes. Patients with cytopenias had a high risk of non-MALT B-cell and non-B-cell cancer, while those with low C3 levels had a high risk of MALT lymphomas and those with monoclonal gammopathy and low C4 levels had a high risk of non-MALT lymphomas. The estimated SIR for solid cancer was 1.13 and 11.02 for hematological cancer. SIRs for specific cancers were 36.17 for multiple myeloma and immunoproliferative diseases, 19.41 for Hodgkin lymphoma, 6.04 for other non-Hodgkin lymphomas, 5.17 for thyroid cancer, 4.81 for cancers of the lip and oral cavity, and 2.53 for stomach cancer. Conclusions One third of cancers developed by patients with primary SjS are B-cell lymphomas. The prognostic factors identified at SjS diagnosis differed according to the subtype of B-cell lymphoma developed. Primary SjS is also associated with the development of some non-hematological cancers (thyroid, oral cavity, and stomach.

  18. PREMIM and EMIM: tools for estimation of maternal, imprinting and interaction effects using multinomial modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howey Richard

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Here we present two new computer tools, PREMIM and EMIM, for the estimation of parental and child genetic effects, based on genotype data from a variety of different child-parent configurations. PREMIM allows the extraction of child-parent genotype data from standard-format pedigree data files, while EMIM uses the extracted genotype data to perform subsequent statistical analysis. The use of genotype data from the parents as well as from the child in question allows the estimation of complex genetic effects such as maternal genotype effects, maternal-foetal interactions and parent-of-origin (imprinting effects. These effects are estimated by EMIM, incorporating chosen assumptions such as Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium or exchangeability of parental matings as required. Results In application to simulated data, we show that the inference provided by EMIM is essentially equivalent to that provided by alternative (competing software packages such as MENDEL and LEM. However, PREMIM and EMIM (used in combination considerably outperform MENDEL and LEM in terms of speed and ease of execution. Conclusions Together, EMIM and PREMIM provide easy-to-use command-line tools for the analysis of pedigree data, giving unbiased estimates of parental and child genotype relative risks.

  19. A comparison of estimated and calculated effective porosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Daniel B.; Hsu, Kuo-Chin; Prieksat, Mark A.; Ankeny, Mark D.; Blandford, Neil; Roth, Tracy L.; Kelsey, James A.; Whitworth, Julia R.

    Effective porosity in solute-transport analyses is usually estimated rather than calculated from tracer tests in the field or laboratory. Calculated values of effective porosity in the laboratory on three different textured samples were compared to estimates derived from particle-size distributions and soil-water characteristic curves. The agreement was poor and it seems that no clear relationships exist between effective porosity calculated from laboratory tracer tests and effective porosity estimated from particle-size distributions and soil-water characteristic curves. A field tracer test in a sand-and-gravel aquifer produced a calculated effective porosity of approximately 0.17. By comparison, estimates of effective porosity from textural data, moisture retention, and published values were approximately 50-90% greater than the field calibrated value. Thus, estimation of effective porosity for chemical transport is highly dependent on the chosen transport model and is best obtained by laboratory or field tracer tests. Résumé La porosité effective dans les analyses de transport de soluté est habituellement estimée, plutôt que calculée à partir d'expériences de traçage sur le terrain ou au laboratoire. Les valeurs calculées de la porosité effective au laboratoire sur trois échantillons de textures différentes ont été comparées aux estimations provenant de distributions de taille de particules et de courbes caractéristiques sol-eau. La concordance était plutôt faible et il semble qu'il n'existe aucune relation claire entre la porosité effective calculée à partir des expériences de traçage au laboratoire et la porosité effective estimée à partir des distributions de taille de particules et de courbes caractéristiques sol-eau. Une expérience de traçage de terrain dans un aquifère de sables et de graviers a fourni une porosité effective calculée d'environ 0,17. En comparaison, les estimations de porosité effective de données de

  20. Polygenic risk score and heritability estimates reveals a genetic relationship between ASD and OCD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, W; Samuels, J F; Wang, Y; Cao, H; Ritter, M; Nestadt, P S; Krasnow, J; Greenberg, B D; Fyer, A J; McCracken, J T; Geller, D A; Murphy, D L; Knowles, J A; Grados, M A; Riddle, M A; Rasmussen, S A; McLaughlin, N C; Nurmi, E L; Askland, K D; Cullen, B A; Piacentini, J; Pauls, D L; Bienvenu, O J; Stewart, S E; Goes, F S; Maher, B; Pulver, A E; Valle, D; Mattheisen, M; Qian, J; Nestadt, G; Shugart, Y Y

    2017-07-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are both highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders that conceivably share genetic risk factors. However, the underlying genetic determinants remain largely unknown. In this work, the authors describe a combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ASD and OCD. The OCD dataset includes 2998 individuals in nuclear families. The ASD dataset includes 6898 individuals in case-parents trios. GWAS summary statistics were examined for potential enrichment of functional variants associated with gene expression levels in brain regions. The top ranked SNP is rs4785741 (chromosome 16) with P value=6.9×10-7 in our re-analysis. Polygenic risk score analyses were conducted to investigate the genetic relationship within and across the two disorders. These analyses identified a significant polygenic component of ASD, predicting 0.11% of the phenotypic variance in an independent OCD data set. In addition, we examined the genomic architecture of ASD and OCD by estimating heritability on different chromosomes and different allele frequencies, analyzing genome-wide common variant data by using the Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) program. The estimated global heritability of OCD is 0.427 (se=0.093) and 0.174 (se=0.053) for ASD in these imputed data. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Model-Based Estimation of the Attributable Risk: A Loglinear Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Christopher; Li, Xiuhong

    2012-12-01

    This paper considers model-based methods for estimation of the adjusted attributable risk (AR) in both case-control and cohort studies. An earlier review discussed approaches for both types of studies, using the standard logistic regression model for case-control studies, and for cohort studies proposing the equivalent Poisson model in order to account for the additional variability in estimating the distribution of exposures and covariates from the data. In this paper we revisit case-control studies, arguing for the equivalent Poisson model in this case as well. Using the delta method with the Poisson model, we provide general expressions for the asymptotic variance of the AR for both types of studies. This includes the generalized AR, which extends the original idea of attributable risk to the case where the exposure is not completely eliminated. These variance expressions can be easily programmed in any statistical package that includes Poisson regression and has capabilities for simple matrix algebra. In addition, we discuss computation of standard errors and confidence limits using bootstrap resampling. For cohort studies, use of the bootstrap allows binary regression models with link functions other than the logit.

  2. Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

  3. Assessment of the atmospheric hazards and risks of new chemicals: procedures to estimate "hazard potentials"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Leeuw FAAM

    1993-01-01

    In this report a procedure for the assessment of atmospheric hazards and risks of newly introduced chemicals is discussed. However, an assessment of direct effects caused by exposure to expected ambient concentrations or by deposition is not discussed ; here emphasis is on the role which new

  4. ESTIMATING THE RISK OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE ASSOCIATED WITH PATHOGENS IN DRINKING WATER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most of the microorganisms present in aquatic environments seem to have no effect upon the health of humans. However, some clearly do represent a public health risk, and for this reason the latter are considered to be pathogenic in nature and referred to as being "pathogens". The...

  5. A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zúñiga, F. Ramón; Suárez, Gerardo; Figueroa-Soto, Ángel; Mendoza, Avith

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m b and M d to M s or M w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.

  6. A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zúñiga, F. Ramón; Suárez, Gerardo; Figueroa-Soto, Ángel; Mendoza, Avith

    2017-06-01

    The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m b and M d to M s or M w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.

  7. Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payzan-LeNestour, Elise; Bossaerts, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating. PMID:21283774

  8. Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elise Payzan-LeNestour

    Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

  9. The estimated risk for coronary heart disease and prevalence of dyslipidemia among workers of information technology industries in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shao-Chi; Chien, Kuo-Liong; Tsai, Wei-I; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Chen, Ming-Fong

    2011-03-18

    Individuals working in information technology (IT) industries suffer from high work stress, possibly causing adverse impacts on their health. However, studies of cardiovascular risk factors among these workers are lacking. The aims of this study were to evaluate the estimated risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) and prevalence of dyslipidemia among IT workers. A total of 941 employees from 11 IT companies were enrolled and the anthropometrics and serum lipid profiles were measured. The 10-year risk for CHD was calculated based on the Framingham risk score. Compared with lipid profiles in a representative sample (n=6589), IT workers had a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypercholesterolemia, low level of HDL-C, and high level of LDL-C in each age group. Their overall estimated 10-year risk for CHD was higher than the average risk of an age- and gender-matched population (2.91% vs. 2.79%, p=0.027). Working for more than 10h/day was associated with a higher estimated CHD risk (3.62% vs. 2.54%, p<0.01). A higher prevalence of hyperlipidemia was noted among IT workers. Their estimated 10-year CHD risk was also higher than average. More aggressive interventions to reduce the risk of CHD in this population are needed. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Estimating safety effects of pavement management factors utilizing Bayesian random effect models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ximiao; Huang, Baoshan; Zaretzki, Russell L; Richards, Stephen; Yan, Xuedong

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies of pavement management factors that relate to the occurrence of traffic-related crashes are rare. Traditional research has mostly employed summary statistics of bidirectional pavement quality measurements in extended longitudinal road segments over a long time period, which may cause a loss of important information and result in biased parameter estimates. The research presented in this article focuses on crash risk of roadways with overall fair to good pavement quality. Real-time and location-specific data were employed to estimate the effects of pavement management factors on the occurrence of crashes. This research is based on the crash data and corresponding pavement quality data for the Tennessee state route highways from 2004 to 2009. The potential temporal and spatial correlations among observations caused by unobserved factors were considered. Overall 6 models were built accounting for no correlation, temporal correlation only, and both the temporal and spatial correlations. These models included Poisson, negative binomial (NB), one random effect Poisson and negative binomial (OREP, ORENB), and two random effect Poisson and negative binomial (TREP, TRENB) models. The Bayesian method was employed to construct these models. The inference is based on the posterior distribution from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. These models were compared using the deviance information criterion. Analysis of the posterior distribution of parameter coefficients indicates that the pavement management factors indexed by Present Serviceability Index (PSI) and Pavement Distress Index (PDI) had significant impacts on the occurrence of crashes, whereas the variable rutting depth was not significant. Among other factors, lane width, median width, type of terrain, and posted speed limit were significant in affecting crash frequency. The findings of this study indicate that a reduction in pavement roughness would reduce the likelihood of traffic

  11. National survey of risk factors for non-communicable disease in Vietnam: prevalence estimates and an assessment of their validity

    OpenAIRE

    Bui, Tan Van; Blizzard, Christopher Leigh; Luong, Khue Ngoc; Truong, Ngoc Le Van; Tran, Bao Quoc; Otahal, Petr; Gall, Seana; Nelson, Mark R.; Au, Thuy Bich; Ha, Son Thai; Phung, Hai Ngoc; Tran, Mai Hoang; Callisaya, Michele; Srikanth, Velandai

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background To estimate the prevalence of non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors at a provincial level in Vietnam, and to assess whether the summary estimates allow reliable inferences to be drawn regarding regional differences in risk factors and associations between them. Methods Participants (n = 14706, 53.5 % females) aged 25–64 years were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces each representing one of the eight geographical regions of Vietna...

  12. The Effect of Lidar Point Density on LAI Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawse-Nicholson, K.; van Aardt, J. A.; Romanczyk, P.; Kelbe, D.; Bandyopadhyay, M.; Yao, W.; Krause, K.; Kampe, T. U.

    2013-12-01

    Leaf Area Index (LAI) is an important measure of forest health, biomass and carbon exchange, and is most commonly defined as the ratio of the leaf area to ground area. LAI is understood over large spatial scales and describes leaf properties over an entire forest, thus airborne imagery is ideal for capturing such data. Spectral metrics such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have been used in the past for LAI estimation, but these metrics may saturate for high LAI values. Light detection and ranging (lidar) is an active remote sensing technology that emits light (most often at the wavelength 1064nm) and uses the return time to calculate the distance to intercepted objects. This yields information on three-dimensional structure and shape, which has been shown in recent studies to yield more accurate LAI estimates than NDVI. However, although lidar is a promising alternative for LAI estimation, minimum acquisition parameters (e.g. point density) required for accurate LAI retrieval are not yet well known. The objective of this study was to determine the minimum number of points per square meter that are required to describe the LAI measurements taken in-field. As part of a larger data collect, discrete lidar data were acquired by Kucera International Inc. over the Hemlock-Canadice State Forest, NY, USA in September 2012. The Leica ALS60 obtained point density of 12 points per square meter and effective ground sampling distance (GSD) of 0.15m. Up to three returns with intensities were recorded per pulse. As part of the same experiment, an AccuPAR LP-80 was used to collect LAI estimates at 25 sites on the ground. Sites were spaced approximately 80m apart and nine measurements were made in a grid pattern within a 20 x 20m site. Dominant species include Hemlock, Beech, Sugar Maple and Oak. This study has the benefit of very high-density data, which will enable a detailed map of intra-forest LAI. Understanding LAI at fine scales may be particularly useful

  13. Software cost estimation, benchmarking, and risk assessment the software decision-makers' guide to predictable software development

    CERN Document Server

    Trendowicz, Adam

    2012-01-01

    Software effort estimation is a key element of software project planning and management. Yet, in industrial practice, the important role of effort estimation is often underestimated and/or misunderstood. In this book, Adam Trendowicz presents the CoBRA method (an abbreviation for Cost Estimation, Benchmarking, and Risk Assessment) for estimating the effort required to successfully complete a software development project, which uniquely combines human judgment and measurement data in order to systematically create a custom-specific effort estimation model. CoBRA goes far beyond simply predictin

  14. Incidence and clearance of anal high-risk human papillomavirus in HIV-positive men who have sex with men: estimates and risk factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geskus, Ronald B.; González, Cristina; Torres, Montserrat; del Romero, Jorge; Viciana, Pompeyo; Masiá, Mar; Blanco, José R.; Iribarren, Mauricio; de Sanjosé, Silvia; Hernández-Novoa, Beatriz; Ortiz, Marta; del Amo, Julia

    2016-01-01

    To estimate incidence and clearance of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), and their risk factors, in men who have sex with men (MSM) recently infected by HIV in Spain; 2007-2013. Multicenter cohort. HR-HPV infection was determined and genotyped with linear array. Two-state Markov models and

  15. Estimating rotavirus vaccine effectiveness in Japan using a screening method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araki, Kaoru; Hara, Megumi; Sakanishi, Yuta; Shimanoe, Chisato; Nishida, Yuichiro; Matsuo, Muneaki; Tanaka, Keitaro

    2016-05-03

    Rotavirus gastroenteritis is a highly contagious, acute viral disease that imposes a significant health burden worldwide. In Japan, rotavirus vaccines have been commercially available since 2011 for voluntary vaccination, but vaccine coverage and effectiveness have not been evaluated. In the absence of a vaccination registry in Japan, vaccination coverage in the general population was estimated according to the number of vaccines supplied by the manufacturer, the number of children who received financial support for vaccination, and the size of the target population. Patients with rotavirus gastroenteritis were identified by reviewing the medical records of all children who consulted 6 major hospitals in Saga Prefecture with gastroenteritis symptoms. Vaccination status among these patients was investigated by reviewing their medical records or interviewing their guardians by telephone. Vaccine effectiveness was determined using a screening method. Vaccination coverage increased with time, and it was 2-times higher in municipalities where the vaccination fee was supported. In the 2012/13 season, vaccination coverage in Saga Prefecture was 14.9% whereas the proportion of patients vaccinated was 5.1% among those with clinically diagnosed rotavirus gastroenteritis and 1.9% among those hospitalized for rotavirus gastroenteritis. Thus, vaccine effectiveness was estimated as 69.5% and 88.8%, respectively. This is the first study to evaluate rotavirus vaccination coverage and effectiveness in Japan since vaccination began.

  16. Estimation of the radiological risk related to the presence of radon 222 in a hydrotherapy centre in Tunisia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labidi, S [Institut Superieur des Technologies Medicales de Tunis (Tunisia); Essafi, F [Faculte de Medecine de Tunis, Section de Biophysique, Tunis (Tunisia); Mahjoubi, H [Institut Superieur des Technologies Medicales de Tunis (Tunisia)

    2006-09-15

    The {sup 222}Rn concentration in air was measured in a thermal water spa used as a hydrotherapy centre in Tunisia. The associated health risk for employees and patients due to the inhalation of {sup 222}Rn and its progeny was estimated. A protection scheme for the employees of the spas has been designed. Results show that the {sup 222}Rn concentration varies in the range 33-589 Bq m{sup -3}. The {sup 222}Rn concentrations measured in the present study show lower values in comparison to those reported for thermal spas in other countries. The {sup 222}Rn concentration in different rooms of the spa depends mainly on the ventilation rate. A model based on a dosimetric approach was adopted to estimate the radon risk considering the {sup 222}Rn concentration, the time spent in the spa, and the radioactive equilibrium factor F. The annual effective dose was found to vary between 0.2 and 1.7 mSv for workers while the range for patients was from 2.8 x 10{sup -4} to 1.1 x 10{sup -4} mSv. These values are within the ICRP recommended values. (note)

  17. Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

    2012-01-01

    Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

  18. Identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images; An annotated bibliography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nieves, L.A.; Wernette, D.R.; Hemphill, R.C.; Mohiudden, S.; Corso, J.

    1990-02-01

    In 1982, the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act to initiate the process of choosing a location to permanently store high-level nuclear waste from the designated Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the only location to be studied as a candidate site for such a repository. The original acts and its amendments had established the grant mechanism by which the state of Nevada could finance an investigation of the potential socioeconomic impacts that could result from the installation and operation of this facility. Over the past three years, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM or RW) in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has approved grant requests by Nevada to perform this investigation. This report is intended to update and enhance a literature review conducted by the Human Affairs Research Center (HARC) for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project that dealt with the psychological and sociological processes underlying risk perception. It provides addition information on the HARC work, covers a subsequent step in the impact-estimation process, and translates risk perception into decisions and behaviors with economic consequences. It also covers recently developed techniques for assessing the nature and magnitude of impacts caused by environmental changes focusing on those impacts caused by changes in perceived risks.

  19. Trends in relative risk estimates for the association between air pollution and mortality in The Netherlands, 1992-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Paul H; Marra, Marten; Ameling, Caroline B; Janssen, Nicole; Cassee, Flemming R

    2011-01-01

    Daily variations in the levels of air pollution are well known to be associated with daily variations in mortality counts. Given the large number of time-series studies, there is little need for simple replication of these results in additional locations. However, additional analyses of time-series data might be useful in elucidating remaining questions on the role of air pollution on mortality. Because of ongoing issues related to causality, changing toxicity, the difficulty in isolating the independent effects of individual pollutants, the availability of new methods to detect effect thresholds, and questions about the extent to which effects are restricted to frail members of the population, additional analyses of time-series data might be helpful in addressing these issues. We show an example where additional time-series analyses can be helpful in elucidating specific questions in the field of air pollution epidemiology. We analysed daily mortality and air pollution data using Poisson regression in generalised additive models. Air pollution data for the overall period 1992-2006 and for four different periods were analysed to assess the overall risk estimates for the whole period and to assess variability over time for the different effect estimates. We found some statistically significant upward trends, but this was only the case for a few associations without a consistent pattern over the cause-specific deaths. Whether these findings are consistent over time or whether our findings are merely the result of statistical chance can only be elucidated by continuation of monitoring of the relative risks over time in the future. Although these results may indicate that both photochemical and particulate matter air pollution might have become more toxic, the lack of a clear pattern in the results makes these conclusions speculative. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A Methodology of Health Effects Estimation from Air Pollution in Large Asian Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiko Hirota

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase of health effects caused by air pollution seems to be a growing concern in Asian cities with increasing motorization. This paper discusses methods of estimating the health effects of air pollution in large Asian cities. Due to the absence of statistical data in Asia, this paper carefully chooses the methodology using data of the Japanese compensation system. A basic idea of health effects will be captured from simple indicators, such as population and air quality, in a correlation model. This correlation model enables more estimation results of respiratory mortality caused by air pollution to be yielded than by using the relative model. The correlation model could be an alternative method to estimate mortality besides the relative risk model since the results of the correlation model are comparable with those of the relative model by city and by time series. The classification of respiratory diseases is not known from the statistical yearbooks in many countries. Estimation results could support policy decision-making with respect to public health in a cost-effective way.

  1. Estimating Causal Effects of Local Air Pollution on Daily Deaths: Effect of Low Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Joel; Bind, Marie-Abele; Koutrakis, Petros

    2017-01-01

    Although many time-series studies have established associations of daily pollution variations with daily deaths, there are fewer at low concentrations, or focused on locally generated pollution, which is becoming more important as regulations reduce regional transport. Causal modeling approaches are also lacking. We used causal modeling to estimate the impact of local air pollution on mortality at low concentrations. Using an instrumental variable approach, we developed an instrument for variations in local pollution concentrations that is unlikely to be correlated with other causes of death, and examined its association with daily deaths in the Boston, Massachusetts, area. We combined height of the planetary boundary layer and wind speed, which affect concentrations of local emissions, to develop the instrument for particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), or nitrogen dioxide (NO2) variations that were independent of year, month, and temperature. We also used Granger causality to assess whether omitted variable confounding existed. We estimated that an interquartile range increase in the instrument for local PM2.5 was associated with a 0.90% increase in daily deaths (95% CI: 0.25, 1.56). A similar result was found for BC, and a weaker association with NO2. The Granger test found no evidence of omitted variable confounding for the instrument. A separate test confirmed the instrument was not associated with mortality independent of pollution. Furthermore, the association remained when all days with PM2.5 concentrations > 30 μg/m3 were excluded from the analysis (0.84% increase in daily deaths; 95% CI: 0.19, 1.50). We conclude that there is a causal association of local air pollution with daily deaths at concentrations below U.S. EPA standards. The estimated attributable risk in Boston exceeded 1,800 deaths during the study period, indicating that important public health benefits can follow from further control efforts. Citation: Schwartz J, Bind MA

  2. Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie L; Drovandi, Christopher C; Robert, Christian P; Pyne, David B; Gore, Christopher J

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL), and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE)) on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

  3. Bayesian Estimation of Small Effects in Exercise and Sports Science.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerrie L Mengersen

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide a Bayesian formulation of the so-called magnitude-based inference approach to quantifying and interpreting effects, and in a case study example provide accurate probabilistic statements that correspond to the intended magnitude-based inferences. The model is described in the context of a published small-scale athlete study which employed a magnitude-based inference approach to compare the effect of two altitude training regimens (live high-train low (LHTL, and intermittent hypoxic exposure (IHE on running performance and blood measurements of elite triathletes. The posterior distributions, and corresponding point and interval estimates, for the parameters and associated effects and comparisons of interest, were estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayesian analysis was shown to provide more direct probabilistic comparisons of treatments and able to identify small effects of interest. The approach avoided asymptotic assumptions and overcame issues such as multiple testing. Bayesian analysis of unscaled effects showed a probability of 0.96 that LHTL yields a substantially greater increase in hemoglobin mass than IHE, a 0.93 probability of a substantially greater improvement in running economy and a greater than 0.96 probability that both IHE and LHTL yield a substantially greater improvement in maximum blood lactate concentration compared to a Placebo. The conclusions are consistent with those obtained using a 'magnitude-based inference' approach that has been promoted in the field. The paper demonstrates that a fully Bayesian analysis is a simple and effective way of analysing small effects, providing a rich set of results that are straightforward to interpret in terms of probabilistic statements.

  4. Valuing emerging markets companies : new approaches to determine the effective exposure to country risk

    OpenAIRE

    Roggi, Oliviero; Giannozzi, Alessandro; Baglioni, Tommaso

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to propose new methods to measure the effective exposure to country risk of emerging-market companies. Starting from Damodaran (2003), we propose seven new approaches and a revised CAPM for emerging markets companies. The “Prospective Lambda” represents the effective exposure according to analysts’ estimates of growth. The “Relative Lambda” relies on the firm value estimated through a relative valuation. The “Retrospective Lambda” represents the ex-post effective expo...

  5. Mendelian randomization with invalid instruments: effect estimation and bias detection through Egger regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, Jack; Davey Smith, George; Burgess, Stephen

    2015-04-01

    The number of Mendelian randomization analyses including large numbers of genetic variants is rapidly increasing. This is due to the proliferation of genome-wide association studies, and the desire to obtain more precise estimates of causal effects. However, some genetic variants may not be valid instrumental variables, in particular due to them having more than one proximal phenotypic correlate (pleiotropy). We view Mendelian randomization with multiple instruments as a meta-analysis, and show that bias caused by pleiotropy can be regarded as analogous to small study bias. Causal estimates using each instrument can be displayed visually by a funnel plot to assess potential asymmetry. Egger regression, a tool to detect small study bias in meta-analysis, can be adapted to test for bias from pleiotropy, and the slope coefficient from Egger regression provides an estimate of the causal effect. Under the assumption that the association of each genetic variant with the exposure is independent of the pleiotropic effect of the variant (not via the exposure), Egger's test gives a valid test of the null causal hypothesis and a consistent causal effect estimate even when all the genetic variants are invalid instrumental variables. We illustrate the use of this approach by re-analysing two published Mendelian randomization studies of the causal effect of height on lung function, and the causal effect of blood pressure on coronary artery disease risk. The conservative nature of this approach is illustrated with these examples. An adaption of Egger regression (which we call MR-Egger) can detect some violations of the standard instrumental variable assumptions, and provide an effect estimate which is not subject to these violations. The approach provides a sensitivity analysis for the robustness of the findings from a Mendelian randomization investigation. © The Author 2015; Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  6. MARINE CORPS ASIA PACIFIC REALIGNMENT: DOD Should Resolve Capability Deficiencies and Infrastructure Risks and Revise Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    every high- quality cost estimate, as a risk analysis Page 46 GAO-17-415 Marine Corps Asia-Pacific Realignment captures the cumulative... Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide identifies best practices that represent work across the federal government and are the basis for a high- quality ... costs necessary for decision makers to gain confidence that the estimate is accurate, complete, and high in quality . Appendix IV: Assessment Tables

  7. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for