WorldWideScience

Sample records for ecosystem process model

  1. Ecosystem management via interacting models of political and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haas, T. C.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The decision to implement environmental protection options is a political one. Political realities may cause a country to not heed the most persuasive scientific analysis of an ecosystem's future health. A predictive understanding of the political processes that result in ecosystem management decisions may help guide ecosystem management policymaking. To this end, this article develops a stochastic, temporal model of how political processes influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. This model is realized in a system of interacting influence diagrams that model the decision making of a country's political bodies. These decisions interact with a model of the ecosystem enclosed by the country. As an example, a model for Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus management in Kenya is constructed and fitted to decision and ecological data.

  2. A terrestrial ecosystem model (SOLVEG) coupled with atmospheric gas and aerosol exchange processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katata, Genki; Ota, Masakazu

    2017-01-01

    In order to predict the impact of atmospheric pollutants (gases and aerosols) to the terrestrial ecosystem, new schemes for calculating the processes of dry deposition of gases and aerosols, and water and carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems were implemented in the one-dimensional atmosphere-SOiL-VEGetation model, SOLVEG. We made performance tests at various vegetation areas to validate the newly developed schemes. In this report, the detail in each modeled process is described with an instruction how to use the modified SOLVEG. The framework of 'terrestrial ecosystem model' was developed for investigation of a change in water, energy, and carbon cycles associated with global warming and air pollution and its impact on terrestrial ecosystems. (author)

  3. Impaired ecosystem process despite little effects on populations: modeling combined effects of warming and toxicants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galic, Nika; Grimm, Volker; Forbes, Valery E

    2017-08-01

    Freshwater ecosystems are exposed to many stressors, including toxic chemicals and global warming, which can impair, separately or in combination, important processes in organisms and hence higher levels of organization. Investigating combined effects of warming and toxicants has been a topic of little research, but neglecting their combined effects may seriously misguide management efforts. To explore how toxic chemicals and warming, alone and in combination, propagate across levels of biological organization, including a key ecosystem process, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) of a freshwater amphipod detritivore, Gammarus pseudolimnaeus, feeding on leaf litter. In this IBM, life history emerges from the individuals' energy budgets. We quantified, in different warming scenarios (+1-+4 °C), the effects of hypothetical toxicants on suborganismal processes, including feeding, somatic and maturity maintenance, growth, and reproduction. Warming reduced mean adult body sizes and population abundance and biomass, but only in the warmest scenarios. Leaf litter processing, a key contributor to ecosystem functioning and service delivery in streams, was consistently enhanced by warming, through strengthened interaction between the detritivorous consumer and its resource. Toxicant effects on feeding and maintenance resulted in initially small adverse effects on consumers, but ultimately led to population extinction and loss of ecosystem process. Warming in combination with toxicants had little effect at the individual and population levels, but ecosystem process was impaired in the warmer scenarios. Our results suggest that exposure to the same amount of toxicants can disproportionately compromise ecosystem processing depending on global warming scenarios; for example, reducing organismal feeding rates by 50% will reduce resource processing by 50% in current temperature conditions, but by up to 200% with warming of 4 °C. Our study has implications for

  4. Business model transformation process in the context of business ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Heikkinen, A.-M. (Anne-Mari)

    2014-01-01

    Abstract It is current phenomena that business environment has changed and has set new requirements for companies. Companies must adapt to the changes comes from outside its normal business environment and take into consideration wider business environment where it operates. These changes also have set new demands for company business model. Companies Business models need to be changed to match state of art business environ...

  5. Looking Past Primary Productivity: Benchmarking System Processes that Drive Ecosystem Level Responses in Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

    2017-12-01

    As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. Benchmarking model predictions against data are necessary to assess their ability to replicate observed patterns, but also to identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences. We have implemented a novel benchmarking workflow as part of the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Building on the recent Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project, we used observational data from the FACE experiments to test this flexible, extensible benchmarking approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation that can be performed quickly and frequently. Model performance assessments are often limited to traditional residual error analysis; however, this can result in a loss of critical information. Models that fail tests of relative measures of fit may still perform well under measures of absolute fit and mathematical similarity. This implies that models that are discounted as poor predictors of ecological productivity may still be capturing important patterns. Conversely, models that have been found to be good predictors of productivity may be hiding error in their sub-process that result in the right answers for the wrong reasons. Our suite of tests have not only highlighted process based sources of uncertainty in model productivity calculations, they have also quantified the patterns and scale of this error. Combining these findings with PEcAn's model sensitivity analysis and variance decomposition strengthen our ability to identify which processes

  6. Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin; Hinkle, Ross; Li, Hong-Yi; Bailey, Vanessa; Bond-Lamberty, Ben

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling of hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.

  7. Dynamics of radioecological and genetic processes in populations of mammalian model species at contamination of ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryabokon', N.I.; Goncharova, R.I.

    2008-01-01

    A short review of data on the time course of radiobiological and genetic processes in natural populations of mammalian model species inhabiting radiocontaminated ecosystems over many generations is presented here. The described time-courses of biological end-points in these populations do not reflect the time course of the whole-body dose rates, but do the outcome of multiple processes, including the direct response to individual irradiation, the transgeneration transmission and accumulation of induced damages and the development of adaptation. (authors)

  8. Empirical Succession Mapping and Data Assimilation to Constrain Demographic Processes in an Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.

    2015-12-01

    Shifts in ecological communities in response to environmental change have implications for biodiversity, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to global climate change. Community composition is fundamentally the product of demography, but demographic processes are simplified or missing altogether in many ecosystem, Earth system, and species distribution models. This limitation arises in part because demographic data are noisy and difficult to synthesize. As a consequence, demographic processes are challenging to formulate in models in the first place, and to verify and constrain with data thereafter. Here, we used a novel analysis of the USFS Forest Inventory Analysis to improve the representation of demography in an ecosystem model. First, we created an Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM) based on ~1 million individual tree observations from the eastern U.S. to identify broad demographic patterns related to forest succession and disturbance. We used results from this analysis to guide reformulation of the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), an existing forest simulator with explicit tree demography. Results from the ESM reveal a coherent, cyclic pattern of change in temperate forest tree size and density over the eastern U.S. The ESM captures key ecological processes including succession, self-thinning, and gap-filling, and quantifies the typical trajectory of these processes as a function of tree size and stand density. Recruitment is most rapid in early-successional stands with low density and mean diameter, but slows as stand density increases; mean diameter increases until thinning promotes recruitment of small-diameter trees. Strikingly, the upper bound of size-density space that emerges in the ESM conforms closely to the self-thinning power law often observed in ecology. The ED model obeys this same overall size-density boundary, but overestimates plot-level growth, mortality, and fecundity rates, leading to unrealistic emergent demographic patterns. In particular

  9. Radionuclide transfer in marine coastal ecosystems, a modelling study using metabolic processes and site data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konovalenko, L; Bradshaw, C; Kumblad, L; Kautsky, U

    2014-07-01

    This study implements new site-specific data and improved process-based transport model for 26 elements (Ac, Ag, Am, Ca, Cl, Cm, Cs, Ho, I, Nb, Ni, Np, Pa, Pb, Pd, Po, Pu, Ra, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tc, Th, U, Zr), and validates model predictions with site measurements and literature data. The model was applied in the safety assessment of a planned nuclear waste repository in Forsmark, Öregrundsgrepen (Baltic Sea). Radionuclide transport models are central in radiological risk assessments to predict radionuclide concentrations in biota and doses to humans. Usually concentration ratios (CRs), the ratio of the measured radionuclide concentration in an organism to the concentration in water, drive such models. However, CRs vary with space and time and CR estimates for many organisms are lacking. In the model used in this study, radionuclides were assumed to follow the circulation of organic matter in the ecosystem and regulated by radionuclide-specific mechanisms and metabolic rates of the organisms. Most input parameters were represented by log-normally distributed probability density functions (PDFs) to account for parameter uncertainty. Generally, modelled CRs for grazers, benthos, zooplankton and fish for the 26 elements were in good agreement with site-specific measurements. The uncertainty was reduced when the model was parameterized with site data, and modelled CRs were most similar to measured values for particle reactive elements and for primary consumers. This study clearly demonstrated that it is necessary to validate models with more than just a few elements (e.g. Cs, Sr) in order to make them robust. The use of PDFs as input parameters, rather than averages or best estimates, enabled the estimation of the probable range of modelled CR values for the organism groups, an improvement over models that only estimate means. Using a mechanistic model that is constrained by ecological processes enables (i) the evaluation of the relative importance of food and water

  10. Radionuclide transfer in marine coastal ecosystems, a modelling study using metabolic processes and site data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C.; Kumblad, L.; Kautsky, U.

    2014-01-01

    This study implements new site-specific data and improved process-based transport model for 26 elements (Ac, Ag, Am, Ca, Cl, Cm, Cs, Ho, I, Nb, Ni, Np, Pa, Pb, Pd, Po, Pu, Ra, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Tc, Th, U, Zr), and validates model predictions with site measurements and literature data. The model was applied in the safety assessment of a planned nuclear waste repository in Forsmark, Öregrundsgrepen (Baltic Sea). Radionuclide transport models are central in radiological risk assessments to predict radionuclide concentrations in biota and doses to humans. Usually concentration ratios (CRs), the ratio of the measured radionuclide concentration in an organism to the concentration in water, drive such models. However, CRs vary with space and time and CR estimates for many organisms are lacking. In the model used in this study, radionuclides were assumed to follow the circulation of organic matter in the ecosystem and regulated by radionuclide-specific mechanisms and metabolic rates of the organisms. Most input parameters were represented by log-normally distributed probability density functions (PDFs) to account for parameter uncertainty. Generally, modelled CRs for grazers, benthos, zooplankton and fish for the 26 elements were in good agreement with site-specific measurements. The uncertainty was reduced when the model was parameterized with site data, and modelled CRs were most similar to measured values for particle reactive elements and for primary consumers. This study clearly demonstrated that it is necessary to validate models with more than just a few elements (e.g. Cs, Sr) in order to make them robust. The use of PDFs as input parameters, rather than averages or best estimates, enabled the estimation of the probable range of modelled CR values for the organism groups, an improvement over models that only estimate means. Using a mechanistic model that is constrained by ecological processes enables (i) the evaluation of the relative importance of food and water

  11. Synergistic linkage between remote sensing and biophysical models for estimating plant ecophysiological and ecosystem processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inoue, Y.; Olioso, A.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract Information on the ecological and physiological status of crops is essential for growth diagnostics and yield prediction. Within-field or between-field spatial information is required, especially with the recent trend toward precision agriculture, which seeks the efficient use of agrochemicals, water, and energy. The study of carbon and nitrogen cycles as well as environmental management on local and regional scales requires assessment of the spatial variability of biophysical and ecophysiological variables, scaling up of which is also needed for scientific and decision-making purposes. Remote sensing has great potential for these applications because it enables wide-area non-destructive, and real-time acquisition of information about ecophysiological conditions of vegetation. With recent advances in sensor technology, a variety of electromagnetic signatures, such as hyperspectral reflectance, thermal-infrared temperature, and microwave backscattering coefficients, can be acquired for both plants and ecosystems using ground-based, airborne, and satellite platforms. Their spatial and temporal resolutions have both recently been improved. This article reviews the state of the art in the remote sensing of plant ecophysiological data, with special emphasis on the synergy between remote sensing signatures and biophysical and ecophysiological process models. Several case studies for the optical, thermal, and microwave domains have demonstrated the potential of this synergistic linkage. Remote sensing and process modeling methods complement each other when combined synergistically. Further research on this approach is needed f or a wide range of ecophysiological and ecosystem studies, as well as for practical crop management

  12. Estimating California ecosystem carbon change using process model and land cover disturbance data: 1951-2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jinxun; Vogelmann, James E.; Zhu, Zhiliang; Key, Carl H.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Price, D.T.; Chen, Jing M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Howard, Stephen M.; Bliss, Norman B.; Jiang, Hong

    2011-01-01

    Land use change, natural disturbance, and climate change directly alter ecosystem productivity and carbon stock level. The estimation of ecosystem carbon dynamics depends on the quality of land cover change data and the effectiveness of the ecosystem models that represent the vegetation growth processes and disturbance effects. We used the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and a set of 30- to 60-m resolution fire and land cover change data to examine the carbon changes of California's forests, shrublands, and grasslands. Simulation results indicate that during 1951–2000, the net primary productivity (NPP) increased by 7%, from 72.2 to 77.1 Tg C yr−1 (1 teragram = 1012 g), mainly due to CO2 fertilization, since the climate hardly changed during this period. Similarly, heterotrophic respiration increased by 5%, from 69.4 to 73.1 Tg C yr−1, mainly due to increased forest soil carbon and temperature. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was highly variable in the 50-year period but on average equalled 3.0 Tg C yr−1 (total of 149 Tg C). As with NEP, the net biome production (NBP) was also highly variable but averaged −0.55 Tg C yr−1 (total of –27.3 Tg C) because NBP in the 1980s was very low (–5.34 Tg C yr−1). During the study period, a total of 126 Tg carbon were removed by logging and land use change, and 50 Tg carbon were directly removed by wildland fires. For carbon pools, the estimated total living upper canopy (tree) biomass decreased from 928 to 834 Tg C, and the understory (including shrub and grass) biomass increased from 59 to 63 Tg C. Soil carbon and dead biomass carbon increased from 1136 to 1197 Tg C.Our analyses suggest that both natural and human processes have significant influence on the carbon change in California. During 1951–2000, climate interannual variability was the key driving force for the large interannual changes of ecosystem carbon source and sink at the state level, while logging and fire

  13. Incorporating Ecosystem Processes Controlling Carbon Balance Into Models of Coupled Human-Natural Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, W.; Brown, D. G.; Brunner, A.; Fouladbash, L.; Hadzick, Z.; Hutchins, M.; Kiger, S. E.; Makino, Y.; Nassauer, J. I.; Robinson, D. T.; Riolo, R. L.; Sun, S.

    2012-12-01

    A key element in the study of coupled human-natural systems is the interactions of human populations with vegetation and soils. In human-dominated landscapes, vegetation production and change results from a combination of ecological processes and human decision-making and behavior. Vegetation is often dramatically altered, whether to produce food for humans and livestock, to harvest fiber for construction and other materials, to harvest fuel wood or feedstock for biofuels, or simply for cultural preferences as in the case of residential lawns with sparse trees in the exurban landscape. This alteration of vegetation and its management has a substantial impact on the landscape carbon balance. Models can be used to simulate scenarios in human-natural systems and to examine the integration of processes that determine future trajectories of carbon balance. However, most models of human-natural systems include little integration of the human alteration of vegetation with the ecosystem processes that regulate carbon balance. Here we illustrate a few case studies of pilot-study models that strive for this integration from our research across various types of landscapes. We focus greater detail on a fully developed research model linked to a field study of vegetation and soils in the exurban residential landscape of Southeastern Michigan, USA. The field study characterized vegetation and soil carbon storage in 5 types of ecological zones. Field-observed carbon storage in the vegetation in these zones ranged widely, from 150 g C/m2 in turfgrass zones, to 6,000 g C/m2 in zones defined as turfgrass with sparse woody vegetation, to 16,000 g C/m2 in a zone defined as dense trees and shrubs. Use of these zones facilitated the scaling of carbon pools to the landscape, where the areal mixtures of zone types had a significant impact on landscape C storage. Use of these zones also facilitated the use of the ecosystem process model Biome-BGC to simulate C trajectories and also

  14. Developing a Data Driven Process-Based Model for Remote Sensing of Ecosystem Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmasri, B.; Rahman, A. F.

    2010-12-01

    Estimating ecosystem carbon fluxes at various spatial and temporal scales is essential for quantifying the global carbon cycle. Numerous models have been developed for this purpose using several environmental variables as well as vegetation indices derived from remotely sensed data. Here we present a data driven modeling approach for gross primary production (GPP) that is based on a process based model BIOME-BGC. The proposed model was run using available remote sensing data and it does not depend on look-up tables. Furthermore, this approach combines the merits of both empirical and process models, and empirical models were used to estimate certain input variables such as light use efficiency (LUE). This was achieved by using remotely sensed data to the mathematical equations that represent biophysical photosynthesis processes in the BIOME-BGC model. Moreover, a new spectral index for estimating maximum photosynthetic activity, maximum photosynthetic rate index (MPRI), is also developed and presented here. This new index is based on the ratio between the near infrared and the green bands (ρ858.5/ρ555). The model was tested and validated against MODIS GPP product and flux measurements from two eddy covariance flux towers located at Morgan Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana and Harvard Forest in Massachusetts. Satellite data acquired by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and MODIS were used. The data driven model showed a strong correlation between the predicted and measured GPP at the two eddy covariance flux towers sites. This methodology produced better predictions of GPP than did the MODIS GPP product. Moreover, the proportion of error in the predicted GPP for MMSF and Harvard forest was dominated by unsystematic errors suggesting that the results are unbiased. The analysis indicated that maintenance respiration is one of the main factors that dominate the overall model outcome errors and improvement in maintenance respiration estimation

  15. Net primary productivity of China's terrestrial ecosystems from a process model driven by remote sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X; Liu, G; Chen, J M; Chen, M; Liu, J; Ju, W M; Sun, R; Zhou, W

    2007-11-01

    The terrestrial carbon cycle is one of the foci in global climate change research. Simulating net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is important for carbon cycle research. In this study, China's terrestrial NPP was simulated using the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS), a carbon-water coupled process model based on remote sensing inputs. For these purposes, a national-wide database (including leaf area index, land cover, meteorology, vegetation and soil) at a 1 km resolution and a validation database were established. Using these databases and BEPS, daily maps of NPP for the entire China's landmass in 2001 were produced, and gross primary productivity (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (RA) were estimated. Using the simulated results, we explore temporal-spatial patterns of China's terrestrial NPP and the mechanisms of its responses to various environmental factors. The total NPP and mean NPP of China's landmass were 2.235 GtC and 235.2 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively; the total GPP and mean GPP were 4.418 GtC and 465 gCm(-2)yr(-1); and the total RA and mean RA were 2.227 GtC and 234 gCm(-2)yr(-1), respectively. On average, NPP was 50.6% of GPP. In addition, statistical analysis of NPP of different land cover types was conducted, and spatiotemporal patterns of NPP were investigated. The response of NPP to changes in some key factors such as LAI, precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, VPD and AWC are evaluated and discussed.

  16. Cycling indices for ecosystem models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1979-01-01

    The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

  17. Terrestrial ecosystem process model Biome-BGCMuSo v4.0: summary of improvements and new modeling possibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidy, Dóra; Barcza, Zoltán; Marjanović, Hrvoje; Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Dobor, Laura; Gelybó, Györgyi; Fodor, Nándor; Pintér, Krisztina; Churkina, Galina; Running, Steven; Thornton, Peter; Bellocchi, Gianni; Haszpra, László; Horváth, Ferenc; Suyker, Andrew; Nagy, Zoltán

    2016-12-01

    The process-based biogeochemical model Biome-BGC was enhanced to improve its ability to simulate carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles of various terrestrial ecosystems under contrasting management activities. Biome-BGC version 4.1.1 was used as a base model. Improvements included addition of new modules such as the multilayer soil module, implementation of processes related to soil moisture and nitrogen balance, soil-moisture-related plant senescence, and phenological development. Vegetation management modules with annually varying options were also implemented to simulate management practices of grasslands (mowing, grazing), croplands (ploughing, fertilizer application, planting, harvesting), and forests (thinning). New carbon and nitrogen pools have been defined to simulate yield and soft stem development of herbaceous ecosystems. The model version containing all developments is referred to as Biome-BGCMuSo (Biome-BGC with multilayer soil module; in this paper, Biome-BGCMuSo v4.0 is documented). Case studies on a managed forest, cropland, and grassland are presented to demonstrate the effect of model developments on the simulation of plant growth as well as on carbon and water balance.

  18. Radionuclide transport processes in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whicker, F.W.

    1983-01-01

    Some major principles and the status of knowledge concerning the transport of radionuclides through terrestrial ecosystems are reviewed. Fundamental processes which control the flow of radionuclides between ecosystem components such as air, soil, plants, and animals are described, with emphasis on deposition, resuspension, plant uptake, ingestion, and assimilation. Properties of radionuclides, organisms, and ecosystems are examined in relation to their influence on the accumulation of radioactive materials by plants and animals. The effects of the physicochemical nature of the radionuclide; morphology, physiology, and behavior of the organism; and soil, nutrient, and trophic characteristics of the ecosystem are highlighted. Observations in natural ecosystems on radionuclides such as 137 Cs, 90 Sr, 131 I, 3 H, and 239 Pu are used to illustrate current concepts. An assessment of the degree to which the processes controlling radionuclide behavior are understood and of our ability to simulate and predict such behavior with computerized models is offered. Finally, brief comments are made on research needs

  19. Incorporating Ecosystem Experiments and Observations into Process Models of Forest Carbon and Water Cycles: Challenges and Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, E. J.; Thomas, R. Q.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; Domec, J. C.; Noormets, A.; King, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Numerous studies, both experimental and observational, have been conducted over the past two decades in an attempt to understand how water and carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems may respond to changes in climatic conditions. These studies have produced a wealth of detailed data on key processes driving these cycles. In parallel, sophisticated models of these processes have been formulated to answer a variety of questions relevant to natural resource management. Recent advances in data assimilation techniques offer exciting new possibilities to combine this wealth of ecosystem data with process models of ecosystem function to improve prediction and quantify associated uncertainty. Using forests of the southeastern United States as our focus, we will specify how fine-scale physiological (e.g. half-hourly sap flux) can be scaled up with quantified error for use in models of stand growth and hydrology. This approach represents an opportunity to leverage current and past research from experiments including throughfall displacement × fertilization (PINEMAP), irrigation × fertilization (SETRES), elevated CO­2­ (Duke and ORNL FACE) and a variety of observational studies in both conifer and hardwood forests throughout the region, using a common platform for data assimilation and prediction. As part of this discussion, we will address variation in dominant species, stand structure, site age, management practices, soils and climate that represent both challenges to the development of a common analytical approach and opportunities to address questions of interest to policy makers and natural resource managers.

  20. An Ecosystem Model for the Simulation of Physical and Biological Oceanic Processes-IDAPAK User's Guide and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClain, Charles R.; Arrigo, Kevin; Murtugudde, Ragu; Signorini, Sergio R.; Tai, King-Sheng

    1998-01-01

    This TM describes the development, testing, and application of a 4-component (phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrate, and ammonium) ecosystem model capable of simulating oceanic biological processes. It also reports and documents an in-house software package (Interactive Data Analysis Package - IDAPAK) for interactive data analysis of geophysical fields, including those related to the forcing, verification, and analysis of the ecosystem model. Two regions were studied in the Pacific: the Warm Pool (WP) in the Equatorial Pacific (165 deg. E at the equator) and at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P) in the Northeast Pacific (50 deg. N, 145 deg. W). The WP results clearly indicate that the upwelling at 100 meters correlates well with surface blooms. The upwelling events in late 1987 and 1990 produced dramatic increases in the surface layer values of all 4 ecosystem components, whereas the spring-summer deep mixing events, do not seem to incur a significant response in any of the ecosystem quantities. The OWS P results show that the monthly profiles of temperature, the annual cycles of solar irradiance, and 0- to 50-m integrated nitrate accurately reproduce observed values. Annual primary production is 190 gC/m(exp 2)/yr, which is consistent with recent observations but is much greater than earlier estimates.

  1. Adventures in holistic ecosystem modelling: the cumberland basin ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, D. C.; Keizer, P. D.; Daborn, G. R.; Schwinghamer, P.; Silvert, W. L.

    A holistic ecosystem model has been developed for the Cumberland Basin, a turbid macrotidal estuary at the head of Canada's Bay of Fundy. The model was constructed as a group exercise involving several dozen scientists. Philosophy of approach and methods were patterned after the BOEDE Ems-Dollard modelling project. The model is one-dimensional, has 3 compartments and 3 boundaries, and is composed of 3 separate submodels (physical, pelagic and benthic). The 28 biological state variables cover the complete estuarine ecosystem and represent broad functional groups of organisms based on trophic relationships. Although still under development and not yet validated, the model has been verified and has reached the stage where most state variables provide reasonable output. The modelling process has stimulated interdisciplinary discussion, identified important data gaps and produced a quantitative tool which can be used to examine ecological hypotheses and determine critical environmental processes. As a result, Canadian scientists have a much better understanding of the Cumberland Basin ecosystem and are better able to provide competent advice on environmental management.

  2. An individual-based process model to simulate landscape-scale forest ecosystem dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupert Seidl; Werner Rammer; Robert M. Scheller; Thomas Spies

    2012-01-01

    Forest ecosystem dynamics emerges from nonlinear interactions between adaptive biotic agents (i.e., individual trees) and their relationship with a spatially and temporally heterogeneous abiotic environment. Understanding and predicting the dynamics resulting from these complex interactions is crucial for the sustainable stewardship of ecosystems, particularly in the...

  3. Assessing Ecosystem Model Performance in Semiarid Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, A.; Dietze, M.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    In ecosystem process modelling, comparing outputs to benchmark datasets observed in the field is an important way to validate models, allowing the modelling community to track model performance over time and compare models at specific sites. Multi-model comparison projects as well as models themselves have largely been focused on temperate forests and similar biomes. Semiarid regions, on the other hand, are underrepresented in land surface and ecosystem modelling efforts, and yet will be disproportionately impacted by disturbances such as climate change due to their sensitivity to changes in the water balance. Benchmarking models at semiarid sites is an important step in assessing and improving models' suitability for predicting the impact of disturbance on semiarid ecosystems. In this study, several ecosystem models were compared at a semiarid grassland in southwestern Arizona using PEcAn, or the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer, an open-source eco-informatics toolbox ideal for creating the repeatable model workflows necessary for benchmarking. Models included SIPNET, DALEC, JULES, ED2, GDAY, LPJ-GUESS, MAESPA, CLM, CABLE, and FATES. Comparison between model output and benchmarks such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) tended to produce high root mean square error and low correlation coefficients, reflecting poor simulation of seasonality and the tendency for models to create much higher carbon sources than observed. These results indicate that ecosystem models do not currently adequately represent semiarid ecosystem processes.

  4. Which processes dominate the uncertainties in the modelling of the transfer of radionuclides in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sundblad, B.

    1991-01-01

    There are several processes governing the transfer of radionuclides in the aquatic environment. These processes are usually lumped together into specific parameters describing those processes, such as distribution coefficients and bioaccumulation factors. One can conclude from the B3 scenario that the differences in results were explained more by difference in the selection of parameter values than they were by differences in assumed lake type or model structure. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in model predictions were the distribution coefficient between water and sediment and the fish bioaccumulation factor. In a site specific assessment it may be possible to limit the level of consideration necessary for each process according to lake type, the chemical and physical characteristics of the radionuclides released. In the B5 scenario it was found that no new processes were identified in spite of the site specific data given. However most users changed their model according to the new information given. The A5 scenario showed that the predictions were in fairly good agreement with the observed values. Other results from this study are the importance of including resuspension, chemical form. Predictions of concentration of cesium in fish were performed by applying a constant bioaccumulation factor approach or a dynamic modelling approach. It showed that it was necessary to apply the dynamic modelling to be able to calculate the initial concentration in fish. This was also discussed in Scenario B3 and thus has been verified in Scenario A5. (3 refs., 10 figs.)

  5. Modeling Elevation and Aspect Controls on Emerging Ecohydrologic Processes and Ecosystem Patterns Using the Component-based Landlab Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nudurupati, S. S.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Adams, J. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Hutton, E. W. H.

    2014-12-01

    Topography plays a commanding role on the organization of ecohydrologic processes and resulting vegetation patterns. In southwestern United States, climate conditions lead to terrain aspect- and elevation-controlled ecosystems, with mesic north-facing and xeric south-facing vegetation types; and changes in biodiversity as a function of elevation from shrublands in low desert elevations, to mixed grass/shrublands in mid elevations, and forests at high elevations and ridge tops. These observed patterns have been attributed to differences in topography-mediated local soil moisture availability, micro-climatology, and life history processes of plants that control chances of plant establishment and survival. While ecohydrologic models represent local vegetation dynamics in sufficient detail up to sub-hourly time scales, plant life history and competition for space and resources has not been adequately represented in models. In this study we develop an ecohydrologic cellular automata model within the Landlab component-based modeling framework. This model couples local vegetation dynamics (biomass production, death) and plant establishment and competition processes for resources and space. This model is used to study the vegetation organization in a semiarid New Mexico catchment where elevation and hillslope aspect play a defining role on plant types. Processes that lead to observed plant types across the landscape are examined by initializing the domain with randomly assigned plant types and systematically changing model parameters that couple plant response with soil moisture dynamics. Climate perturbation experiments are conducted to examine the plant response in space and time. Understanding the inherently transient ecohydrologic systems is critical to improve predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems.

  6. Validation of a Process-Based Agro-Ecosystem Model (Agro-IBIS for Maize in Xinjiang, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tureniguli Amuti

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural oasis expansion and intensive management practices have occurred in arid and semiarid regions of China during the last few decades. Accordingly, regional carbon and water budgets have been profoundly impacted by agroecosystems in these regions. Therefore, study on the methods used to accurately estimate energy, water, and carbon exchanges is becoming increasingly important. Process-based models can represent the complex processes between land and atmosphere among agricultural ecosystems. However, before the models can be applied they must be validated under different environmental and climatic conditions. In this study, a process-based agricultural ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS was validated for maize crops using 3 years of soil and biometric measurements at Wulanwusu agrometeorological site (WAS located in the Shihezi oasis in Xinjiang, northwest China. The model satisfactorily represented leaf area index (LAI during the growing season, simulating its peak values within the magnitude of 0–10%. The total biomass carbon was overestimated by 15%, 8%, and 16% in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. The model satisfactorily simulated the soil temperature (0–10 cm and volumetric water content (VWC (0–25 cm of farmland during the growing season. However, it overestimated soil temperature approximately by 4 °C and VWC by 15–30% during the winter, coinciding with the period of no vegetation cover in Xinjiang. Overall, the results indicate that the model could represent crop growth, and seems to be applicable in multiple sites in arid oases agroecosystems of Xinjiang. Future application of the model will impose more comprehensive validation using eddy covariance flux data, and consider including dynamics of crop residue and improving characterization of the final stage of leaf development.

  7. One carbon cycle: Impacts of model integration, ecosystem process detail, model resolution, and initialization data, on projections of future climate mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, J.; Hurtt, G. C.; le page, Y.; Patel, P. L.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Dubayah, R.; Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J.; Janetos, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) simulate the interactions between human and natural systems at a global scale, representing a broad suite of phenomena across the global economy, energy system, land-use, and carbon cycling. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on maintaining or enhancing the terrestrial carbon sink as a substantial contribution to restrain the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, however most IAMs rely on simplified regional representations of terrestrial carbon dynamics. Our research aims to reduce uncertainties associated with forest modeling within integrated assessments, and to quantify the impacts of climate change on forest growth and productivity for integrated assessments of terrestrial carbon management. We developed the new Integrated Ecosystem Demography (iED) to increase terrestrial ecosystem process detail, resolution, and the utilization of remote sensing in integrated assessments. iED brings together state-of-the-art models of human society (GCAM), spatial land-use patterns (GLM) and terrestrial ecosystems (ED) in a fully coupled framework. The major innovative feature of iED is a consistent, process-based representation of ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycle throughout the human, terrestrial, land-use, and atmospheric components. One of the most challenging aspects of ecosystem modeling is to provide accurate initialization of land surface conditions to reflect non-equilibrium conditions, i.e., the actual successional state of the forest. As all plants in ED have an explicit height, it is one of the few ecosystem models that can be initialized directly with vegetation height data. Previous work has demonstrated that ecosystem model resolution and initialization data quality have a large effect on flux predictions at continental scales. Here we use a factorial modeling experiment to quantify the impacts of model integration, process detail, model resolution, and initialization data on projections of

  8. [Characteristics of terrestrial ecosystem primary productivity in East Asia based on remote sensing and process-based model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fang-Min; Ju, Wei-Min; Chen, Jing-Ming; Wang, Shao-Qiang; Yu, Gui-Rui; Han, Shi-Jie

    2012-02-01

    Based on the bi-linearly interpolated meteorological reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA and by using the leaf area index data derived from the GIMMS NDVI to run the process-based Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model, this paper simulated and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in East Asia in 2000-2005. Before regional simulating and calculating, the observation GPP data of different terrestrial ecosystem in 15 experimental stations of AsiaFlux network and the inventory measurements of NPP at 1300 sampling sites were applied to validate the BEPS GPP and NPP. The results showed that BEPS could well simulate the changes in GPP and NPP of different terrestrial ecosystems, with the R2 ranging from 0.86 to 0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.2 to 1.2 g C x m(-2) x d(-1). The simulated values by BEPS could explain 78% of the changes in annual NPP, and the RMSE was 118 g C x m(-2) x a(-1). In 2000-2005, the averaged total GPP and total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia were 21.7 and 10.5 Pg C x a(-1), respectively, and the GPP and NPP exhibited similar spatial and temporal variation patterns. During the six years, the total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystems varied from 10.2 to 10.7 Pg C x a(-1), with a coefficient of variation being 2. 2%. High NPP (above 1000 g C x m(-2) x a(-1)) occurred in the southeast island countries, while low NPP (below 30 g C x m(-2) x a(-1)) occurred in the desert area of Northwest China. The spatial patterns of NPP were mainly attributed to the differences in the climatic variables across East Asia. The NPP per capita also varied greatly among different countries, which was the highest (70217 kg C x a(-1)) in Mongolia, far higher than that (1921 kg C x a(-1)) in China, and the lowest (757 kg C x a(-1)) in India.

  9. Simple metal model for predicting uptake and chemical processes in sewage-fed aquaculture ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azanu, David; Jorgensen, Sven Erik; Darko, Godfred

    2016-01-01

    but not working properly for chromium and mercury. Additional processes, including precipitation of chromium and bio-magnification of methylmercury were introduced to explain concentration of chromium and mercury in fish. Comparison of measured and predicted metal concentration used for validation gave a linear......% was the best, which is also in accordance to the fish growth. The ratio of fish food was also calibrated to be 70% due to a food chain in the water and 30% due to a food chain in the sediment. This gave the lowest uncertainty of the model. The simple metal model was working acceptably well for Pb, Cu and Cd...

  10. A dynamic ecosystem process model for understanding interactions between permafrost thawing and vegetation responses in the arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Travis, B. J.; Fisher, R. A.; Wilson, C. J.; McDowell, N.

    2010-12-01

    The arctic is expected to play an important role in the Earth’s future climate due to the large carbon stocks that are stored in permafrost and peatlands, a substantial proportion of which may be released to the atmosphere due to permafrost thawing. There may be positive feedbacks of permafrost thawing on plant growth by releasing stored nitrogen and increasing rooting depth; however, vegetation response to other changing variables such as CO2 and temperature can also modify soil hydrology and energy fluxes, leading to either positive or negative feedbacks on permafrost thawing. Disentangling the interactions between permafrost thawing and vegetation growth is critical for assessing the potential role of arctic regions on current and future global carbon cycling. We have developed a mechanistic, regional, and spatially explicit dynamic ecosystem process model through the integration of a 3-D soil hydrology and biogeochemistry model (Arctic Hydrology, ARCHY) and a dynamic vegetation model (Ecosystem Demography, ED), to quantify the importance of plant-permafrost interactions to soil and plant carbon storage. This model integrates important processes including photosynthesis, transpiration, respiration, 3-D competition for light, 3-D soil hydrology, energy fluxes (ice melting in the soil and solar radiation interception by canopy), nitrogen cycles (microbial decomposition, nitrogen transportation in soil, passive and active nitrogen uptake by plants), species migration, and drought-related mortality. A sensitivity analysis has been implemented to assess the importance of the hydrological cycle, the nitrogen cycle and energy fluxes in regulating the above and below-ground carbon cycles in arctic regions. Our model can fill an important gap between field and global land surface models for assessing plot and regional level hypotheses in the context of global climate.

  11. Resolving terrestrial ecosystem processes along a subgrid topographic gradient for an earth-system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subin, Z M; Milly, Paul C.D.; Sulman, B N; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, E

    2014-01-01

    capability to represent some of the controls of these hydrological variables, but also that improvement in parameterization and input datasets are needed for more realistic simulations. We found large sensitivity in model-diagnosed wetland and inundated area to the depth of conductive soil and the parameterization of macroporosity. With improved parameterization and inclusion of peatland biogeochemical processes, the model could provide a new approach to investigating the vulnerability of Boreal peatland carbon to climate change in ESMs.

  12. A positive and multi-element conserving time stepping scheme for biogeochemical processes in marine ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radtke, H.; Burchard, H.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, an unconditionally positive and multi-element conserving time stepping scheme for systems of non-linearly coupled ODE's is presented. These systems of ODE's are used to describe biogeochemical transformation processes in marine ecosystem models. The numerical scheme is a positive-definite modification of the Runge-Kutta method, it can have arbitrarily high order of accuracy and does not require time step adaption. If the scheme is combined with a modified Patankar-Runge-Kutta method from Burchard et al. (2003), it also gets the ability to solve a certain class of stiff numerical problems, but the accuracy is restricted to second-order then. The performance of the new scheme on two test case problems is shown.

  13. Process-Based Thinking in Ecosystem Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Rebecca C.; Gray, Steven A.; Brooks, Wesley R.; Honwad, Sameer; Hmelo-Silver, Cindy E.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding complex systems such as ecosystems is difficult for young K-12 students, and students' representations of ecosystems are often limited to nebulously defined relationships between macro-level structural components inherent to the ecosystem in focus (rainforest, desert, pond, etc.) instead of generalizing processes across ecosystems…

  14. Estimating Rates of Permafrost Degradation and their Impact on Ecosystems across Alaska and Northwest Canada using the Process-based Permafrost Dynamics Model GIPL as a Component of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchenko, S. S.; Genet, H.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Bolton, W. R.; Walsh, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The impact of climate warming on permafrost and the potential of climate feedbacks resulting from permafrost thawing have recently received a great deal of attention. Permafrost temperature has increased in most locations in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic during the past 30-40 years. The typical increase in permafrost temperature is 1-3°C. The process-based permafrost dynamics model GIPL developed in the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, and which is the permafrost module of the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) has been using to quantify the nature and rate of permafrost degradation and its impact on ecosystems, infrastructure, CO2 and CH4fluxes and net C storage following permafrost thaw across Alaska and Northwest Canada. The IEM project is a multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary effort aimed at understanding potential landscape, habitat and ecosystem change across the IEM domain. The IEM project also aims to tie three scientific models together Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), the ALFRESCO (ALaska FRame-based EcoSystem Code) and GIPL so that they exchange data at run-time. The models produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, organic matter, permafrost and hydrology regimes. The climate forcing data are based on the historical CRU3.1 data set for the retrospective analysis period (1901-2009) and the CMIP3 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 and MPI-ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate models for the future period (2009-2100). All data sets were downscaled to a 1 km resolution, using a differencing methodology (i.e., a delta method) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climatology. We estimated the dynamics of permafrost temperature, active layer thickness, area occupied by permafrost, and volume of thawed soils across the IEM domain. The modeling results indicate how different types of ecosystems affect the thermal state of permafrost and its stability. Although the rate of soil warming and permafrost degradation in peatland areas are slower than

  15. Ecosystem function in complex mountain terrain: Combining models and long-term observations to advance process-based understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieder, William R.; Knowles, John F.; Blanken, Peter D.; Swenson, Sean C.; Suding, Katharine N.

    2017-04-01

    Abiotic factors structure plant community composition and ecosystem function across many different spatial scales. Often, such variation is considered at regional or global scales, but here we ask whether ecosystem-scale simulations can be used to better understand landscape-level variation that might be particularly important in complex terrain, such as high-elevation mountains. We performed ecosystem-scale simulations by using the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 to better understand how the increased length of growing seasons may impact carbon, water, and energy fluxes in an alpine tundra landscape. The model was forced with meteorological data and validated with observations from the Niwot Ridge Long Term Ecological Research Program site. Our results demonstrate that CLM is capable of reproducing the observed carbon, water, and energy fluxes for discrete vegetation patches across this heterogeneous ecosystem. We subsequently accelerated snowmelt and increased spring and summer air temperatures in order to simulate potential effects of climate change in this region. We found that vegetation communities that were characterized by different snow accumulation dynamics showed divergent biogeochemical responses to a longer growing season. Contrary to expectations, wet meadow ecosystems showed the strongest decreases in plant productivity under extended summer scenarios because of disruptions in hydrologic connectivity. These findings illustrate how Earth system models such as CLM can be used to generate testable hypotheses about the shifting nature of energy, water, and nutrient limitations across space and through time in heterogeneous landscapes; these hypotheses may ultimately guide further experimental work and model development.

  16. Applying Hillslope Hydrology to Bridge between Ecosystem and Grid-Scale Processes within an Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subin, Z. M.; Sulman, B. N.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.

    2013-12-01

    Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface energy fluxes, vegetation properties, and soil carbon cycling. Its interactions with ecosystem processes are highly nonlinear across a large range, as both drought stress and anoxia can impede vegetation and microbial growth. Earth System Models (ESMs) generally only represent an average soil-moisture state in grid cells at scales of 50-200 km, and as a result are not able to adequately represent the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, especially in regions with large wetland areas. We addressed this deficiency by developing the first ESM-coupled subgrid hillslope-hydrological model, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), embedded within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model. In each grid cell, one or more representative hillslope geometries are discretized into land model tiles along an upland-to-lowland gradient. These geometries represent ~1 km hillslope-scale hydrological features and allow for flexible representation of hillslope profile and plan shapes, in addition to variation of subsurface properties among or within hillslopes. Each tile (which may represent ~100 m along the hillslope) has its own surface fluxes, vegetation state, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. Resolution of water state in deep layers (~200 m) down to bedrock allows for physical integration of groundwater transport with unsaturated overlying dynamics. Multiple tiles can also co-exist at the same vertical position along the hillslope, allowing the simulation of ecosystem heterogeneity due to disturbance. The hydrological model is coupled to the vertically-resolved Carbon, Organisms, Respiration, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model, which captures non-linearity resulting from interactions between vertically-heterogeneous soil carbon and water profiles. We present comparisons of simulated water table depth to observations. We examine sensitivities to

  17. Parallel Computing for Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Dali; Post, Wilfred M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Berry, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are a primary component of research on global environmental change. Observational and modeling research on terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale, however, has lagged behind their counterparts for oceanic and atmospheric systems, largely because the unique challenges associated with the tremendous diversity and complexity of terrestrial ecosystems. There are 8 major types of terrestrial ecosystem: tropical rain forest, savannas, deserts, temperate grassland, deciduous forest, coniferous forest, tundra, and chaparral. The carbon cycle is an important mechanism in the coupling of terrestrial ecosystems with climate through biological fluxes of CO 2 . The influence of terrestrial ecosystems on atmospheric CO 2 can be modeled via several means at different timescales. Important processes include plant dynamics, change in land use, as well as ecosystem biogeography. Over the past several decades, many terrestrial ecosystem models (see the 'Model developments' section) have been developed to understand the interactions between terrestrial carbon storage and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere, as well as the consequences of these interactions. Early TECMs generally adapted simple box-flow exchange models, in which photosynthetic CO 2 uptake and respiratory CO 2 release are simulated in an empirical manner with a small number of vegetation and soil carbon pools. Demands on kinds and amount of information required from global TECMs have grown. Recently, along with the rapid development of parallel computing, spatially explicit TECMs with detailed process based representations of carbon dynamics become attractive, because those models can readily incorporate a variety of additional ecosystem processes (such as dispersal, establishment, growth, mortality etc.) and environmental factors (such as landscape position, pest populations, disturbances, resource manipulations, etc.), and provide information to frame policy options for climate change

  18. PnET-BGC: Modeling Biogeochemical Processes in a Northern Hardwood Forest Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This archived model product contains the directions, executables, and procedures for running PnET-BGC to recreate the results of: Gbondo-Tugbawa, S.S., C.T. Driscoll...

  19. PnET-BGC: Modeling Biogeochemical Processes in a Northern Hardwood Forest Ecosystem

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This archived model product contains the directions, executables, and procedures for running PnET-BGC to recreate the results of: Gbondo-Tugbawa, S.S.,...

  20. Nitrogen cycling process rates across urban ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisinger, Alexander J; Groffman, Peter M; Rosi-Marshall, Emma J

    2016-09-21

    Nitrogen (N) pollution of freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems is widespread and has numerous environmental and economic impacts. A portion of this excess N comes from urban watersheds comprised of natural and engineered ecosystems which can alter downstream N export. Studies of urban N cycling have focused on either specific ecosystems or on watershed-scale mass balances. Comparisons of specific N transformations across ecosystems are required to contextualize rates from individual studies. Here we reviewed urban N cycling in terrestrial, aquatic, and engineered ecosystems, and compared N processing in these urban ecosystem types to native reference ecosystems. We found that net N mineralization and net nitrification rates were enhanced in urban forests and riparian zones relative to reference ecosystems. Denitrification was highly variable across urban ecosystem types, but no significant differences were found between urban and reference denitrification rates. When focusing on urban streams, ammonium uptake was more rapid than nitrate uptake in urban streams. Additionally, reduction of stormwater runoff coupled with potential decreases in N concentration suggests that green infrastructure may reduce downstream N export. Despite multiple environmental stressors in urban environments, ecosystems within urban watersheds can process and transform N at rates similar to or higher than reference ecosystems. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Insight into nitrous oxide production processes in the western North Pacific based on a marine ecosystem isotopomer model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshikawa, C.; Sasai, Y.; Wakita, M.; Honda, M. C.; Fujiki, T.; Harada, N.; Makabe, A.; Matsushima, S.; Toyoda, S.; Yoshida, N.; Ogawa, N. O.; Suga, H.; Ohkouchi, N.

    2016-02-01

    Based on the observed inverse relationship between the dissolved oxygen and N2O concentrations in the ocean, previous models have indirectly predicted marine N2O emissions from the apparent oxygen utilization (AOU), In this study, a marine ecosystem model that incorporates nitrous oxide (N2O) production processes (i.e., ammonium oxidation during nitrification and nitrite reduction during nitrifier denitrification) was newly developed to estimate the sea-air N2O flux and to quantify N2O production processes. Site preference of 15N (SP) in N2O isotopomers (14N15N16O and 15N14N16O) and the average nitrogen isotope ratio (δ15N) were added to the model because they are useful tracers to distinguish between ammonium oxidation and nitrite reduction. This model was applied to two contrasting time series sites, a subarctic station (K2) and a subtropical station (S1) in the western North Pacific. The model was validated with observed nitrogen concentration and nitrogen isotopomer datasets, and successfully simulated the higher N2O concentrations, higher δ15N values, and higher site preference values for N2O at K2 compared with S1. The annual mean N2O emissions were estimated to be 34 mg N m-2 yr-1 at K2 and 2 mg N m-2 yr-1 at S1. Using this model, we conducted three case studies: 1) estimating the ratio of in-situ biological N2O production to nitrate (NO3-) production during nitrification, 2) estimating the ratio of N2O production by ammonium oxidation to that by nitrite reduction, and 3) estimating the ratio of AOA ammonium oxidation to AOB ammonium oxidation. The results of case studies estimated the ratios of in situ biological N2O production to nitrate production during nitrification to be 0.22% at K2 and 0.06% at S1. It is also suggested that N2O was mainly produced via ammonium oxidation at K2 but was produced via both ammonium oxidation and nitrite reduction at S1. It is also revealed that 80% of the ammonium oxidation at K2 was caused by archaea in the subsurface

  2. Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Harvey, Judson W.

    2011-01-01

    It is widely recognized that interactions between vegetation and flow cause the emergence of channel patterns that are distinct from the standard Schumm classification of river channels. Although landscape pattern is known to be linked to ecosystem services such as habitat provision, pollutant removal, and sustaining biodiversity, the mechanisms responsible for the development and stability of different landscape patterns in shallow, vegetated flows have remained poorly understood. Fortunately, recent advances have made possible large-scale models of flow through vegetated environments that can be run over a range of environmental variables and over timescales of millennia. We describe a new, quasi-3D cellular automata model that couples simulations of shallow-water flow, bed shear stresses, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics in an efficient manner. That efficiency allowed us to apply the model widely in order to determine how different hydroecological feedbacks control landscape pattern and process in various types of wetlands and floodplains. Distinct classes of landscape pattern were uniquely associated with specific types of allogenic and autogenic drivers in wetland flows. Regular, anisotropically patterned wetlands were dominated by allogenic processes (i.e., processes driven by periodic high water levels and flow velocities that redistribute sediment), relative to autogenic processes (e.g., vegetation production, peat accretion, and gravitational erosion). These anistropically patterned wetlands are therefore particularly prone to hydrologic disturbance. Other classes of wetlands that emerged from simulated interactions included maze-patterned, amorphous, and topographically noisy marshes, open marsh with islands, banded string-pool sequences perpendicular to flow, parallel deep and narrow channels flanked by marsh, and ridge-and-slough patterned marsh oriented parallel to flow. Because vegetation both affects and responds to the balance between the

  3. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    Accelerated changes to global ecosystems call for holistic and integrated analyses of past, present and future states under various pressures to adequately understand current and projected future system states. Ecosystem models can inform management of human activities in a complex and changing environment, but are these models reliable? Ensuring that models are reliable for addressing management questions requires evaluating their skill in representing real-world processes and dynamics. Skill has been evaluated for just a limited set of some biophysical models. A range of skill assessment methods have been reviewed but skill assessment of full marine ecosystem models has not yet been attempted. We assessed the skill of the Northeast U.S. (NEUS) Atlantis marine ecosystem model by comparing 10-year model forecasts with observed data. Model forecast performance was compared to that obtained from a 40-year hindcast. Multiple metrics (average absolute error, root mean squared error, modeling efficiency, and Spearman rank correlation), and a suite of time-series (species biomass, fisheries landings, and ecosystem indicators) were used to adequately measure model skill. Overall, the NEUS model performed above average and thus better than expected for the key species that had been the focus of the model tuning. Model forecast skill was comparable to the hindcast skill, showing that model performance does not degenerate in a 10-year forecast mode, an important characteristic for an end-to-end ecosystem model to be useful for strategic management purposes. We identify best-practice approaches for end-to-end ecosystem model skill assessment that would improve both operational use of other ecosystem models and future model development. We show that it is possible to not only assess the skill of a complicated marine ecosystem model, but that it is necessary do so to instill confidence in model results and encourage their use for strategic management. Our methods are applicable

  4. Assimilation of the Observational Data in the Marine Ecosystem Adaptive Model at the Known Mean Values of the Processes in the Marine Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.Е. Тimchenko

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Assimilation of observational data in the marine ecosystem adaptive models constructed by the adaptive balance of causes method is considered. It is shown that the feedback balance between the ecosystem variables and the rates of their change used in the method equations, permits to introduce a stationary state of the ecosystem characterized by the observed mean values of the variables. The method for assessing the normalized coefficients of influences based on application of the Euler theorem on homogeneous functions to the functions representing material balances of biochemical reactions of the substance transformation is proposed. It is shown that the normalized ratios of the modeled process mean values can be used as the estimates of the reaction product derivatives obtained on the basis of their resources included in the equations of material balances. One-dimensional adaptive model of the sea upper layer ecosystem is constructed as an example; it is based on the scheme of cause-effect relations of the Fasham, Dacklow and McKelvie model of plankton dynamics and nitrogen cycle It is shown that in such a model, observational data is assimilated by automatic adaptation of the model variables to the assimilated information providing that the substance material balance are preserved in the transformation reactions. The data simulating both observations of the chlorophyll a concentrations and the marine environment dynamics are assimilated in the model. Time scenarios of the biochemical processes are constructed; they confirm applicability of the proposed method for assessing the effect coefficients based on the ratios of the simulated process mean values.

  5. Modeling soil moisture memory in savanna ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, S.; Miller, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Antecedent soil conditions create an ecosystem's "memory" of past rainfall events. Such soil moisture memory effects may be observed over a range of timescales, from daily to yearly, and lead to feedbacks between hydrological and ecosystem processes. In this study, we modeled the soil moisture memory effect on savanna ecosystems in California, Arizona, and Africa, using a system dynamics model created to simulate the ecohydrological processes at the plot-scale. The model was carefully calibrated using soil moisture and evapotranspiration data collected at three study sites. The model was then used to simulate scenarios with various initial soil moisture conditions and antecedent precipitation regimes, in order to study the soil moisture memory effects on the evapotranspiration of understory and overstory species. Based on the model results, soil texture and antecedent precipitation regime impact the redistribution of water within soil layers, potentially causing deeper soil layers to influence the ecosystem for a longer time. Of all the study areas modeled, soil moisture memory of California savanna ecosystem site is replenished and dries out most rapidly. Thus soil moisture memory could not maintain the high rate evapotranspiration for more than a few days without incoming rainfall event. On the contrary, soil moisture memory of Arizona savanna ecosystem site lasts the longest time. The plants with different root depths respond to different memory effects; shallow-rooted species mainly respond to the soil moisture memory in the shallow soil. The growing season of grass is largely depended on the soil moisture memory of the top 25cm soil layer. Grass transpiration is sensitive to the antecedent precipitation events within daily to weekly timescale. Deep-rooted plants have different responses since these species can access to the deeper soil moisture memory with longer time duration Soil moisture memory does not have obvious impacts on the phenology of woody plants

  6. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Seidl, Rupert; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Fonseca, Teresa F.; Gillet, François; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Merganičová, Katarína; Netherer, Sigrid; Arpaci, Alexander; Bontemps, Jean-Daniel; Bugmann, Harald

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework f...

  7. Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.

    2014-12-01

    GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

  8. The Importance of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-based Models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling in Terrestrial Ecosystems with Particular Emphasis on Forest Ecosystems — Selected Papers from a Workshop Organized by the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM) at the Third Biennal Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (IEMSS) in Burlington, Vermont, USA, August 9-13, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Liu, Jinxun; Ascough, James C.; Gordon, Andrew M.

    2008-01-01

    Many process-based models of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles have been developed for terrestrial ecosystems, including forest ecosystems. They address many basic issues of ecosystems structure and functioning, such as the role of internal feedback in ecosystem dynamics. The critical factor in these phenomena is scale, as these processes operate at scales from the minute (e.g. particulate pollution impacts on trees and other organisms) to the global (e.g. climate change). Research efforts remain important to improve the capability of such models to better represent the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems, including the C, nutrient, (e.g. N) and water cycles. Existing models are sufficiently well advanced to help decision makers develop sustainable management policies and planning of terrestrial ecosystems, as they make realistic predictions when used appropriately. However, decision makers must be aware of their limitations by having the opportunity to evaluate the uncertainty associated with process-based models (Smith and Heath, 2001 and Allen et al., 2004). The variation in scale of issues currently being addressed by modelling efforts makes the evaluation of uncertainty a daunting task.

  9. Ecosystem process interactions between central Chilean habitats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meredith Root-Bernstein

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Understanding ecosystem processes is vital for developing dynamic adaptive management of human-dominated landscapes. We focus on conservation and management of the central Chilean silvopastoral savanna habitat called “espinal”, which often occurs near matorral, a shrub habitat. Although matorral, espinal and native sclerophyllous forest are linked successionally, they are not jointly managed and conserved. Management goals in “espinal” include increasing woody cover, particularly of the dominant tree Acacia caven, improving herbaceous forage quality, and increasing soil fertility. We asked whether adjacent matorral areas contribute to espinal ecosystem processes related to the three main espinal management goals. We examined input and outcome ecosystem processes related to these goals in matorral and espinal with and without shrub understory. We found that matorral had the largest sets of inputs to ecosystem processes, and espinal with shrub understory had the largest sets of outcomes. Moreover, we found that these outcomes were broadly in the directions preferred by management goals. This supports our prediction that matorral acts as an ecosystem process bank for espinal. We recommend that management plans for landscape resilience consider espinal and matorral as a single landscape cover class that should be maintained as a dynamic mosaic. Joint management of espinal and matorral could create new management and policy opportunities.

  10. Effects of fire on major forest ecosystem processes: an overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhong

    2006-09-01

    Fire and fire ecology are among the best-studied topics in contemporary ecosystem ecology. The large body of existing literature on fire and fire ecology indicates an urgent need to synthesize the information on the pattern of fire effects on ecosystem composition, structure, and functions for application in fire and ecosystem management. Understanding fire effects and underlying principles are critical to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic wildfires and for proper use of fire as an effective management tool toward management goals. This overview is a synthesis of current knowledge on major effects of fire on fire-prone ecosystems, particularly those in the boreal and temperate regions of the North America. Four closely related ecosystem processes in vegetation dynamics, nutrient cycling, soil and belowground process and water relations were discussed with emphases on fire as the driving force. Clearly, fire can shape ecosystem composition, structure and functions by selecting fire adapted species and removing other susceptible species, releasing nutrients from the biomass and improving nutrient cycling, affecting soil properties through changing soil microbial activities and water relations, and creating heterogeneous mosaics, which in turn, can further influence fire behavior and ecological processes. Fire as a destructive force can rapidly consume large amount of biomass and cause negative impacts such as post-fire soil erosion and water runoff, and air pollution; however, as a constructive force fire is also responsible for maintaining the health and perpetuity of certain fire-dependent ecosystems. Considering the unique ecological roles of fire in mediating and regulating ecosystems, fire should be incorporated as an integral component of ecosystems and management. However, the effects of fire on an ecosystem depend on the fire regime, vegetation type, climate, physical environments, and the scale of time and space of assessment. More ecosystem

  11. Evaluation of CH4 and N2O Budget of Natural Ecosystems and Croplands in Asia with a Process-based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ito, A.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems are important sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) but significant sources of other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). To resolve the role of terrestrial biosphere in the climate system, we need to quantify total greenhouse gas budget with an adequate accuracy. In addition to top-down evaluation on the basis of atmospheric measurements, model-based approach is required for integration and up-scaling of filed data and for prediction under changing environment and different management practices. Since the early 2000s, we have developed a process-based model of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles focusing on atmosphere-ecosystem exchange of trace gases: Vegetation Integrated SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT). The model includes simple and comprehensive schemes of carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems, allowing us to capture dynamic nature of greenhouse gas budget. Beginning from natural ecosystems such as temperate and tropical forests, the models is now applicable to croplands by including agricultural practices such as planting, harvest, and fertilizer input. Global simulation results have been published from several papers, but model validation and benchmarking using up-to-date observations are remained for works. The model is now applied to several practical issues such as evaluation of N2O emission from bio-fuel croplands, which are expected to accomplish the mitigation target of the Paris Agreement. We also show several topics about basic model development such as revised CH4 emission affected by dynamic water-table and refined N2O emission from nitrification.

  12. Current and future carbon budget at Takayama site, Japan, evaluated by a regional climate model and a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuribayashi, Masatoshi; Noh, Nam-Jin; Saitoh, Taku M; Ito, Akihiko; Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Muraoka, Hiroyuki

    2017-06-01

    Accurate projection of carbon budget in forest ecosystems under future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration is important to evaluate the function of terrestrial ecosystems, which serve as a major sink of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we examined the effects of spatial resolution of meteorological data on the accuracies of ecosystem model simulation for canopy phenology and carbon budget such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) of a deciduous forest in Japan. Then, we simulated the future (around 2085) changes in canopy phenology and carbon budget of the forest by incorporating high-resolution meteorological data downscaled by a regional climate model. The ecosystem model overestimated GPP and ER when we inputted low-resolution data, which have warming biases over mountainous landscape. But, it reproduced canopy phenology and carbon budget well, when we inputted high-resolution data. Under the future climate, earlier leaf expansion and delayed leaf fall by about 10 days compared with the present state was simulated, and also, GPP, ER and NEP were estimated to increase by 25.2%, 23.7% and 35.4%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that the increase of NEP in June and October would be mainly caused by rising temperature, whereas that in July and August would be largely attributable to CO 2 fertilization. This study suggests that the downscaling of future climate data enable us to project more reliable carbon budget of forest ecosystem in mountainous landscape than the low-resolution simulation due to the better predictions of leaf expansion and shedding.

  13. Effects of climate and lifeform on dry matter yield (epsilon) from simulations using BIOME BGC. [ecosystem process model for vegetation biomass production using daily absorbed photosynthetically active radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, E. R., Jr.; Running, Steven W.

    1992-01-01

    An ecosystem process simulation model, BIOME-BGC, is used in a sensitivity analysis to determine the factors that may cause the dry matter yield (epsilon) and annual net primary production to vary for different ecosystems. At continental scales, epsilon is strongly correlated with annual precipitation. At a single location, year-to-year variation in net primary production (NPP) and epsilon is correlated with either annual precipitation or minimum air temperatures. Simulations indicate that forests have lower epsilon than grasslands. The most sensitive parameter affecting forest epsilon is the total amount of living woody biomass, which affects NPP by increasing carbon loss by maintenance respiration. A global map of woody biomass should significantly improve estimates of global NPP using remote sensing.

  14. Modeling plankton ecosystem functioning and nitrogen fluxes in the oligotrophic waters of the Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean: a focus on light-driven processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Le Fouest

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic Ocean (AO undergoes profound changes of its physical and biotic environments due to climate change. In some areas of the Beaufort Sea, the stronger haline stratification observed in summer alters the plankton ecosystem structure, functioning and productivity, promoting oligotrophy. A one-dimension (1-D physical–biological coupled model based on the large multiparametric database of the Malina project in the Beaufort Sea was used (i to infer the plankton ecosystem functioning and related nitrogen fluxes and (ii to assess the model sensitivity to key light-driven processes involved in nutrient recycling and phytoplankton growth. The coupled model suggested that ammonium photochemically produced from photosensitive dissolved organic nitrogen (i.e., photoammonification process was a necessary nitrogen source to achieve the observed levels of microbial biomass and production. Photoammonification directly and indirectly (by stimulating the microbial food web activity contributed to 70% and 18.5% of the 0–10 m and whole water column, respectively, simulated primary production (respectively 66% and 16% for the bacterial production. The model also suggested that variable carbon to chlorophyll ratios were required to simulate the observed herbivorous versus microbial food web competition and realistic nitrogen fluxes in the Beaufort Sea oligotrophic waters. In face of accelerating Arctic warming, more attention should be paid in the future to the mechanistic processes involved in food webs and functional group competition, nutrient recycling and primary production in poorly productive waters of the AO, as they are expected to expand rapidly.

  15. Intelligent spatial ecosystem modeling using parallel processors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maxwell, T.; Costanza, R.

    1993-01-01

    Spatial modeling of ecosystems is essential if one's modeling goals include developing a relatively realistic description of past behavior and predictions of the impacts of alternative management policies on future ecosystem behavior. Development of these models has been limited in the past by the large amount of input data required and the difficulty of even large mainframe serial computers in dealing with large spatial arrays. These two limitations have begun to erode with the increasing availability of remote sensing data and GIS systems to manipulate it, and the development of parallel computer systems which allow computation of large, complex, spatial arrays. Although many forms of dynamic spatial modeling are highly amenable to parallel processing, the primary focus in this project is on process-based landscape models. These models simulate spatial structure by first compartmentalizing the landscape into some geometric design and then describing flows within compartments and spatial processes between compartments according to location-specific algorithms. The authors are currently building and running parallel spatial models at the regional scale for the Patuxent River region in Maryland, the Everglades in Florida, and Barataria Basin in Louisiana. The authors are also planning a project to construct a series of spatially explicit linked ecological and economic simulation models aimed at assessing the long-term potential impacts of global climate change

  16. Improving the Understanding and Model Representation of Processes that Couple Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fast, J. D.; Berg, L. K.; Schmid, B.; Alexander, M. L. L.; Bell, D.; D'Ambro, E.; Hubbe, J. M.; Liu, J.; Mei, F.; Pekour, M. S.; Pinterich, T.; Schobesberger, S.; Shilling, J.; Springston, S. R.; Thornton, J. A.; Tomlinson, J. M.; Wang, J.; Zelenyuk, A.

    2016-12-01

    Cumulus convection is an important component in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrologic cycle over the southern Great Plains and over many regions of the world, particularly during the summertime growing season when intense turbulence induced by surface radiation couples the land surface to clouds. Current convective cloud parameterizations, however, contain uncertainties resulting from insufficient coincident data that couples cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties to inhomogeneity in surface layer, boundary layer, and aerosol properties. We describe the measurement strategy and preliminary findings from the recent Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign conducted in May and September of 2016 in the vicinity of the DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site located in Oklahoma. The goal of the HI-SCALE campaign is to provide a detailed set of aircraft and surface measurements needed to obtain a more complete understanding and improved parameterizations of the lifecycle of shallow clouds. The sampling is done in two periods, one in the spring and the other in the late summer to take advantage of variations in the "greenness" for various types of vegetation, new particle formation, anthropogenic enhancement of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and other aerosol properties. The aircraft measurements will be coupled with extensive routine ARM SGP measurements as well as Large Eddy Simulation (LES), cloud resolving, and cloud-system resolving models. Through these integrated analyses and modeling studies, the affects of inhomogeneity in land use, vegetation, soil moisture, convective eddies, and aerosol properties on the evolution of shallow clouds will be determined, including the feedbacks of cloud radiative effects.

  17. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seidl, R.; Fernandes, P.M.; Fonseca, T.F.; Gillet, F.; Jöhnsson, A.M.; Merganičová, K.; Netherer, S.; Arpaci, A.; Bontemps, J.D.; Bugmann, H.; González-Olabarria, J.R.; Lasch, P.; Meredieu, C.; Moreira, F.; Schelhaas, M.; Mohren, G.M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling

  18. A Size-based Ecosystem Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

     Ecosystem Management requires models that can link the ecosystem level to the operation level. This link can be created by an ecosystem production model. Because the function of the individual fish in the marine ecosystem, seen in trophic context, is closely related to its size, the model groups...... fish according to size. The model summarises individual predation events into ecosystem level properties, and thereby uses the law of conversation of mass as a framework. This paper provides the background, the conceptual model, basic assumptions, integration of fishing activities, mathematical...... the predator--prey interaction, (ii) mass balance in the predator--prey allocation, and (iii) mortality and somatic growth as a consequence of the predator--prey allocation. By incorporating additional assumptions, the model can be extended to other dimensions of the ecosystem, for example, space or species...

  19. Modeling for Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guswa, A. J.; Brauman, K. A.; Ghile, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Ecosystem services are those values provided to human society by the structure and processes of ecosystems and landscapes. Water-related services include the transformation of precipitation impulses into supplies of water for hydropower, irrigation, and industrial and municipal uses, the retention and removal of applied nutrients and pollutants, flood-damage mitigation, recreation, and the provision of cultural and aesthetic values. Incorporation of changes to the value of these services in land-use planning and decision making requires identification of the relevant services, engagement of stakeholders, knowledge of how land-use changes impact water quality, quantity, and timing, and mechanisms for putting value on the hydrologic and biogeochemical changes. We present three examples that highlight the characteristics, challenges, and opportunities associated with prototypical decisions that incorporate ecosystem services values: scenario analysis, payment for ecosystem services, and optimal spatial planning. Through these examples, we emphasize the challenges of data availability, model resolution and complexity, and attribution of value. We also provide some suggestions for ways forward.

  20. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Modeling the Personal Health Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blobel, Bernd; Brochhausen, Mathias; Ruotsalainen, Pekka

    2018-01-01

    Complex ecosystems like the pHealth one combine different domains represented by a huge variety of different actors (human beings, organizations, devices, applications, components) belonging to different policy domains, coming from different disciplines, deploying different methodologies, terminologies, and ontologies, offering different levels of knowledge, skills, and experiences, acting in different scenarios and accommodating different business cases to meet the intended business objectives. For correctly modeling such systems, a system-oriented, architecture-centric, ontology-based, policy-driven approach is inevitable, thereby following established Good Modeling Best Practices. However, most of the existing standards, specifications and tools for describing, representing, implementing and managing health (information) systems reflect the advancement of information and communication technology (ICT) represented by different evolutionary levels of data modeling. The paper presents a methodology for integrating, adopting and advancing models, standards, specifications as well as implemented systems and components on the way towards the aforementioned ultimate approach, so meeting the challenge we face when transforming health systems towards ubiquitous, personalized, predictive, preventive, participative, and cognitive health and social care.

  2. The Smithsonian-led Marine Global Earth Observatory (MarineGEO): Proposed Model for a Collaborative Network Linking Marine Biodiversity to Ecosystem Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, J. E.

    2016-02-01

    Biodiversity - the variety of functional types of organisms - is the engine of marine ecosystem processes, including productivity, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Biodiversity remains a black box in much of ocean science, despite wide recognition that effectively managing human interactions with marine ecosystems requires understanding both structure and functional consequences of biodiversity. Moreover, the inherent complexity of biological systems puts a premium on data-rich, comparative approaches, which are best met via collaborative networks. The Smithsonian Institution's MarineGEO program links a growing network of partners conducting parallel, comparative research to understand change in marine biodiversity and ecosystems, natural and anthropogenic drivers of that change, and the ecological processes mediating it. The focus is on nearshore, seabed-associated systems where biodiversity and human population are concentrated and interact most, yet which fall through the cracks of existing ocean observing programs. MarineGEO offers a standardized toolbox of research modules that efficiently capture key elements of biological diversity and its importance in ecological processes across a range of habitats. The toolbox integrates high-tech (DNA-based, imaging) and low-tech protocols (diver surveys, rapid assays of consumer activity) adaptable to differing institutional capacity and resources. The model for long-term sustainability involves leveraging in-kind support among partners, adoption of best practices wherever possible, engagement of students and citizen scientists, and benefits of training, networking, and global relevance as incentives for participation. Here I highlight several MarineGEO comparative research projects demonstrating the value of standardized, scalable assays and parallel experiments for measuring fish and invertebrate diversity, recruitment, benthic herbivory and generalist predation, decomposition, and carbon sequestration. Key

  3. Mapping and modelling ecosystem services for science, policy and practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burkhard, B.; Crossman, N.; Nedkov, S.; Petz, K.; Alkemade, R.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem services are a significant research and policy topic and there are many modelling and mapping approaches aimed at understanding the stocks, demands and flows of ecosystem services on different spatial and temporal scales. The integration of geo-biophysical processes and structure

  4. Producer-decomposer matching in a simple model ecosystem: A network coevolutionary approach to ecosystem organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higashi, Masahiko; Yamamura, Norio; Nakajima, Hisao; Abe, Takuya

    1993-01-01

    The present not is concerned with how the ecosystem maintains its energy and matter processes, and how those processes change throughout ecological and geological time, or how the constituent biota of an ecosystem maintain their life, and how ecological (species) succession and biological evolution proceed within an ecosystem. To advance further Tansky's (1976) approach to ecosystem organization, which investigated the characteristic properties of the developmental process of a model ecosystem, by applying Margalef's (1968) maximum maturity principle to derive its long term change, we seek a course for deriving the macroscopic trends along the organization process of an ecosystem as a consequence of the interactions among its biotic components and their modification of ecological traits. Using a simple ecosystem model consisting of four aggregated components (open-quotes compartmentsclose quotes) connected by nutrient flows, we investigate how a change in the value of a parameter alters the network pattern of flows and stocks, even causing a change in the value of another parameter, which in turn brings about further change in the network pattern and values of some (possible original) parameters. The continuation of this chain reaction involving feedbacks constitutes a possible mechanism for the open-quotes coevolutionclose quotes or open-quotes matchingclose quotes among flows, stocks, and parameters

  5. Modeling dynamics of biological and chemical components of aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassiter, R.R.

    1975-05-01

    To provide capability to model aquatic ecosystems or their subsystems as needed for particular research goals, a modeling strategy was developed. Submodels of several processes common to aquatic ecosystems were developed or adapted from previously existing ones. Included are submodels for photosynthesis as a function of light and depth, biological growth rates as a function of temperature, dynamic chemical equilibrium, feeding and growth, and various types of losses to biological populations. These submodels may be used as modules in the construction of models of subsystems or ecosystems. A preliminary model for the nitrogen cycle subsystem was developed using the modeling strategy and applicable submodels. (U.S.)

  6. Ecohydrological processes and ecosystem services in the Anthropocene: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Dennis Hallema; Heidi Asbjornsen

    2017-01-01

    The framework for ecosystem services has been increasingly used in integrated watershed ecosystem management practices that involve scientists, engineers, managers, and policy makers. The objective of this review is to explore the intimate connections between ecohydrological processes and water-related ecosystem services in human-dominated ecosystems in the...

  7. Modeling invasive alien plant species in river systems: Interaction with native ecosystem engineers and effects on hydro-morphodynamic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Oorschot, M.; Kleinhans, M. G.; Geerling, G. W.; Egger, G.; Leuven, R. S. E. W.; Middelkoop, H.

    2017-08-01

    Invasive alien plant species negatively impact native plant communities by out-competing species or changing abiotic and biotic conditions in their introduced range. River systems are especially vulnerable to biological invasions, because waterways can function as invasion corridors. Understanding interactions of invasive and native species and their combined effects on river dynamics is essential for developing cost-effective management strategies. However, numerical models for simulating long-term effects of these processes are lacking. This paper investigates how an invasive alien plant species affects native riparian vegetation and hydro-morphodynamics. A morphodynamic model has been coupled to a dynamic vegetation model that predicts establishment, growth and mortality of riparian trees. We introduced an invasive alien species with life-history traits based on Japanese Knotweed (Fallopia japonica), and investigated effects of low- and high propagule pressure on invasion speed, native vegetation and hydro-morphodynamic processes. Results show that high propagule pressure leads to a decline in native species cover due to competition and the creation of unfavorable native colonization sites. With low propagule pressure the invader facilitates native seedling survival by creating favorable hydro-morphodynamic conditions at colonization sites. With high invader abundance, water levels are raised and sediment transport is reduced during the growing season. In winter, when the above-ground invader biomass is gone, results are reversed and the floodplain is more prone to erosion. Invasion effects thus depend on seasonal above- and below ground dynamic vegetation properties and persistence of the invader, on the characteristics of native species it replaces, and the combined interactions with hydro-morphodynamics.

  8. A multitrophic model to quantify the effects of marine viruses on microbial food webs and ecosystem processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weitz, Joshua S.; Stock, Charles A.; Wilhelm, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    Viral lysis of microbial hosts releases organic matter that can then be assimilated by nontargeted microorganisms. Quantitative estimates of virus-mediated recycling of carbon in marine waters, first established in the late 1990s, were originally extrapolated from marine host and virus densities......, host carbon content and inferred viral lysis rates. Yet, these estimates did not explicitly incorporate the cascade of complex feedbacks associated with virus-mediated lysis. To evaluate the role of viruses in shaping community structure and ecosystem functioning, we extend dynamic multitrophic...

  9. Puako Ecosystem Model Output Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are valued differently by different users. Managers are challenged to comprehensively address the full...

  10. Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

    OpenAIRE

    Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on t...

  11. Application of an ecosystem model to evaluate the importance of different processes and food web structure for transfer of 13 elements in a shallow lake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konovalenko, L; Bradshaw, C; Andersson, E; Kautsky, U

    2017-04-01

    In environmental risk assessments of nuclear waste, there is need to estimate the potential risks of a large number of radionuclides over a long time period during which the environment is likely to change. Usually concentration ratios (CRs) are used to calculate the activity concentrations in organisms. However, CRs are not available for all radionuclides and they are not easily scalable to the varying environment. Here, an ecosystem transport model of elements, which estimates concentrations in organisms using carbon flows and food transfer instead of CR is presented. It is a stochastic compartment model developed for Lake Eckarfjärden at Forsmark in Sweden. The model was based on available data on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes from the site and identifies 11 functional groups of organisms. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of 13 elements (Al, Ca, Cd, Cl, Cs, I, Ni, Nb, Pb, Se, Sr, Th, U) to various aquatic organisms, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particles (K d PM ) and upper sediment (K d sed ), and subsequent transfer in the foodweb. The modelled CRs for different organism groups were compared with measured CRs from the lake and literature data, and showed good agreement for many elements and organisms, particularly for lower trophic levels. The model is, therefore, proposed as an alternative to measured CR, though it is suggested to further explore active uptake, assimilation and elimination processes to get better correspondence for some of the elements. The benthic organisms (i.e. bacteria, microphytobenthos and macroalgae) were identified as more important than pelagic organisms for transfer of elements to top predators. The element transfer model revealed that most of the radionuclides were channelled through the microbial loop, despite the fact that macroalgae dominated the carbon fluxes in this lake. Thus, element-specific adsorption of elements to the surface of

  12. Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support...... the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on the smart grid with the theory of business ecosystem may open opportunities to understand market catalysts. This study...... contributes an understanding of business ecosystem applicable for smart grid. Smart grid infrastructure is an intricate business ecosystem, which have several intentions to deliver the value proposition and what it should be. The findings help to identify and capture value from markets....

  13. Development of a data driven process-based model for remote sensing of terrestrial ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and above-ground biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Masri, Bassil

    2011-12-01

    Modeling terrestrial ecosystem functions and structure has been a subject of increasing interest because of the importance of the terrestrial carbon cycle in global carbon budget and climate change. In this study, satellite data were used to estimate gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET) for two deciduous forests: Morgan Monroe State forest (MMSF) in Indiana and Harvard forest in Massachusetts. Also, above-ground biomass (AGB) was estimated for the MMSF and the Howland forest (mixed forest) in Maine. Surface reflectance and temperature, vegetation indices, soil moisture, tree height and canopy area derived from the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMRS-E), LIDAR, and aerial imagery respectively, were used for this purpose. These variables along with others derived from remotely sensed data were used as inputs variables to process-based models which estimated GPP and ET and to a regression model which estimated AGB. The process-based models were BIOME-BGC and the Penman-Monteith equation. Measured values for the carbon and water fluxes obtained from the Eddy covariance flux tower were compared to the modeled GPP and ET. The data driven methods produced good estimation of GPP and ET with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.17 molC/m2 and 0.40 mm/day, respectively for the MMSF and the Harvard forest. In addition, allometric data for the MMSF were used to develop the regression model relating AGB with stem volume. The performance of the AGB regression model was compared to site measurements using remotely sensed data for the MMSF and the Howland forest where the model AGB RMSE ranged between 2.92--3.30 Kg C/m2. Sensitivity analysis revealed that improvement in maintenance respiration estimation and remotely sensed maximum photosynthetic activity as well as accurate estimate of canopy resistance will result in improved GPP and ET predictions. Moreover, AGB estimates were

  14. Scientists' Needs in Software Ecosystem Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, Slinger; Handoyo, Eko; Alves, C.

    2015-01-01

    Currently the landscape of software ecosystem modelling methods and languages is like Babel after the fall of the tower: there are many methods and languages available and interchanging data between researchers and organizations that actively govern their ecosystem, is practically impossible. The

  15. Business Ecosystem Definition in Built Environment Using a Stakeholder Assessment Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuomas Lappi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Actors and their relationships are core elements of the business ecosystem concept, a trending model of business collaboration emphasizing organizational diversity, relationship dependency and joint evolution. This study approaches a built environment business ecosystem to structure the acknowledged complexity of ecosystem definition by applying a three-step stakeholder assessment process. The process is based on a stakeholder network diagram, Mitchell, Agle, and Wood’s (1997 well-recognized stakeholder salience model and a two-dimensional stakeholder matrix. The assessment process is applied to a school campus case study to define a built environment business ecosystem and the salience of the ecosystem actors. Results, including salience score calculation, validate the applicability of the proposed process. The findings provide novel insights for ecosystem researchers into how stakeholder theory concepts can be applied to broaden the understanding of business ecosystem dynamics.

  16. Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijnbladh, Erik; Jönsson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

    2006-12-01

    Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.

  17. Marine Ecosystem Modeling Beyond the Box: Using GIS to Study Carbon Fluxes in a Coastal Ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijnbladh, Erik; Joensson, Bror Fredrik; Kumblad, Linda

    2006-01-01

    Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phyto benthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem

  18. Ecosystem element transport model for Lake Eckarfjaerden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konovalenko, L.; Bradshaw, C. [The Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University (Sweden); Andersson, E.; Kautsky, U. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. - SKB (Sweden)

    2014-07-01

    The ecosystem transport model of elements was developed for Lake Eckarfjaerden located in the Forsmark area in Sweden. Forsmark has currently a low level repository (SFR) and a repository for spent fuel is planned. A large number of data collected during site-investigation program 2002-2009 for planning the repository were available for the creation of the compartment model based on carbon circulation, physical and biological processes (e.g. primary production, consumption, respiration). The model is site-specific in the sense that the food web model is adapted to the actual food web at the site, and most estimates of biomass and metabolic rates for the organisms and meteorological data originate from site data. The functional organism groups of Lake Eckarfjaerden were considered as separate compartments: bacterio-plankton, benthic bacteria, macro-algae, phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish, benthic fauna. Two functional groups of bacteria were taken into account for the reason that they have the highest biomass of all functional groups during the winter, comprising 36% of the total biomass. Effects of ecological parameters, such as bacteria and algae biomass, on redistribution of a hypothetical radionuclide release in the lake were examined. The ecosystem model was used to estimate the environmental transfer of several elements (U, Th, Ra) and their isotopes (U-238, U-234,Th-232, Ra-226) to various aquatic organisms in the lake, using element-specific distribution coefficients for suspended particle and sediment. Results of chemical analyses of the water, sediment and biota were used for model validation. The model gives estimates of concentration factors for fish based on modelling rather on in situ measurement, which reduces the uncertainties for many radionuclides with scarce of data. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  19. Microbes as engines of ecosystem function: when does community structure enhance predictions of ecosystem processes?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily B. Graham

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Microorganisms are vital in mediating the earth’s biogeochemical cycles; yet, despite our rapidly increasing ability to explore complex environmental microbial communities, the relationship between microbial community structure and ecosystem processes remains poorly understood. Here, we address a fundamental and unanswered question in microbial ecology: ‘When do we need to understand microbial community structure to accurately predict function?’ We present a statistical analysis investigating the value of environmental data and microbial community structure independently and in combination for explaining rates of carbon and nitrogen cycling processes within 82 global datasets. Environmental variables were the strongest predictors of process rates but left 44% of variation unexplained on average, suggesting the potential for microbial data to increase model accuracy. Although only 29% of our datasets were significantly improved by adding information on microbial community structure, we observed improvement in models of processes mediated by narrow phylogenetic guilds via functional gene data, and conversely, improvement in models of facultative microbial processes via community diversity metrics. Our results also suggest that microbial diversity can strengthen predictions of respiration rates beyond microbial biomass parameters, as 53% of models were improved by incorporating both sets of predictors compared to 35% by microbial biomass alone. Our analysis represents the first comprehensive analysis of research examining links between microbial community structure and ecosystem function. Taken together, our results indicate that a greater understanding of microbial communities informed by ecological principles may enhance our ability to predict ecosystem process rates relative to assessments based on environmental variables and microbial physiology.

  20. Process notebook for aquatic ecosystem simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartzman, G.; Smith, E.; McKenzie, D.; Haar, B.; Fickeisen, D.

    1980-01-01

    This notebook contains a detailed comparison of 14 models of fish growth, energetics, population dynamics, and feeding. It is a basic document for the evaluation of thes models' usefulness for impact assessment. Model equations are categorized into 18 subprocesses comprising the major processes of consumption, predation, metabolic processes, growth, fecundity, and mortality. The model equations are compared in a standard notation and the equation rationales are considered and put into a historical framework with historical precedence charts. Model parameters are computed in standard units and data sources and techniques used for parameter estimation are identified. A translator compares standard notation with the notation used in the models. The major contribution of this work is that, for the first time, fish models are arrayed with their assumptions laid bare and their parameter values compared, allowing elucidation of model differeances and evaluaton of model behavior and data needs by using the process notebook as a base for further simulation comparison

  1. Trialogue model for ecosystem governance.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hattingh, J

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available form and timescale to ensure good governance. In essence, good governance promotes democratic management of ecosystems and, by inference, prudentwater resourcemanagement. Consequently, it is likely that the type of governance that occurs most often... that, unless the imperative for civic science to support democratic governance is institutionalised through policy and strategy, it is unlikely that there will be sufficient human and financial investment in civic science as a means to promote...

  2. Assimilation of remote sensing data into a process-based ecosystem model for monitoring changes of soil water content in croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ju, Weimin; Gao, Ping; Wang, Jun; Li, Xianfeng; Chen, Shu

    2008-10-01

    Soil water content (SWC) is an important factor affecting photosynthesis, growth, and final yields of crops. The information on SWC is of importance for mitigating the reduction of crop yields caused by drought through proper agricultural water management. A variety of methodologies have been developed to estimate SWC at local and regional scales, including field sampling, remote sensing monitoring and model simulations. The reliability of regional SWC simulation depends largely on the accuracy of spatial input datasets, including vegetation parameters, soil and meteorological data. Remote sensing has been proved to be an effective technique for controlling uncertainties in vegetation parameters. In this study, the vegetation parameters (leaf area index and land cover type) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) were assimilated into a process-based ecosystem model BEPS for simulating the variations of SWC in croplands of Jiangsu province, China. Validation shows that the BEPS model is able to capture 81% and 83% of across-site variations of SWC at 10 and 20 cm depths during the period from September to December, 2006 when a serous autumn drought occurred. The simulated SWC responded the events of rainfall well at regional scale, demonstrating the usefulness of our methodology for SWC and practical agricultural water management at large scales.

  3. Merging Marine Ecosystem Models and Genomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, V.; Hood, R. R.; Stukel, M. R.; Moran, M. A.; Paul, J. H.; Satinsky, B.; Zielinski, B.; Yager, P. L.

    2015-12-01

    oceanography. One of the grand challenges of oceanography is to develop model techniques to more effectively incorporate genomic information. As one approach, we developed an ecosystem model whose community is determined by randomly assigning functional genes to build each organism's "DNA". Microbes are assigned a size that sets their baseline environmental responses using allometric response cuves. These responses are modified by the costs and benefits conferred by each gene in an organism's genome. The microbes are embedded in a general circulation model where environmental conditions shape the emergent population. This model is used to explore whether organisms constructed from randomized combinations of metabolic capability alone can self-organize to create realistic oceanic biogeochemical gradients. Realistic community size spectra and chlorophyll-a concentrations emerge in the model. The model is run repeatedly with randomly-generated microbial communities and each time realistic gradients in community size spectra, chlorophyll-a, and forms of nitrogen develop. This supports the hypothesis that the metabolic potential of a community rather than the realized species composition is the primary factor setting vertical and horizontal environmental gradients. Vertical distributions of nitrogen and transcripts for genes involved in nitrification are broadly consistent with observations. Modeled gene and transcript abundance for nitrogen cycling and processing of land-derived organic material match observations along the extreme gradients in the Amazon River plume, and they help to explain the factors controlling observed variability.

  4. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  5. Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Nancy B.; Groffman, Peter M; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Tallis, Heather

    2016-01-01

    The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

  6. Process-based principles for restoring river ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy J. Beechie; David A. Sear; Julian D. Olden; George R. Pess; John M. Buffington; Hamish Moir; Philip Roni; Michael M. Pollock

    2010-01-01

    Process-based restoration aims to reestablish normative rates and magnitudes of physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain river and floodplain ecosystems. Ecosystem conditions at any site are governed by hierarchical regional, watershed, and reach-scale processes controlling hydrologic and sediment regimes; floodplain and aquatic habitat...

  7. Humus and humility in ecosystem model design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Ed

    2015-04-01

    Prediction is central to science. Empirical scientists couch their predictions as hypotheses and tend to deal with simple models such as regressions, but are modellers as much as are those who combine mechanistic hypotheses into more complex models. There are two main challenges for both groups: to strive for accurate predictions, and to ensure that the work is relevant to wider society. There is a role for blue-sky research, but the multiple environmental changes that characterise the 21st century place an onus on ecosystem scientists to develop tools for understanding environmental change and planning responses. Authors such as Funtowicz and Ravetz (1990) have argued that this situation represents "post-normal" science and that scientists should see themselves more humbly as actors within a societal process rather than as arbiters of truth. Modellers aim for generality, e.g. to accurately simulate the responses of a variety of ecosystems to several different environmental drivers. More accurate predictions can usually be achieved by including more explanatory factors or mechanisms in a model, even though this often results in a less efficient, less parsimonious model. This drives models towards ever-increasing complexity, and many models grow until they are effectively unusable beyond their development team. An alternative way forward is to focus on developing component models. Technologies for integrating dynamic models emphasise the removal of the model engine (algorithms) from code which handles time-stepping and the user interface. Developing components also requires some humility on the part of modellers, since collaboration will be needed to represent the whole system, and also because the idea that a simple component can or should represent the entire understanding of a scientific discipline is often difficult to accept. Policy-makers and land managers typically have questions different to those posed by scientists working within a specialism, and models

  8. A Practical Decision-Analysis Process for Forest Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Michael Rauscher; F. Thomas Lloyd; David L. Loftis; Mark J. Twery

    2000-01-01

    Many authors have pointed out the need to firm up the 'fuzzy' ecosystem management paradigm and develop operationally practical processes to allow forest managers to accommodate more effectively the continuing rapid change in societal perspectives and goals. There are three spatial scales where clear, precise, practical ecosystem management processes are...

  9. Modeling gross primary production of agro-forestry ecosystems by assimilation of satellite-derived information in a process-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migliavacca, Mirco; Meroni, Michele; Busetto, Lorenzo; Colombo, Roberto; Zenone, Terenzio; Matteucci, Giorgio; Manca, Giovanni; Seufert, Guenther

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we present results obtained in the framework of a regional-scale analysis of the carbon budget of poplar plantations in Northern Italy. We explored the ability of the process-based model BIOME-BGC to estimate the gross primary production (GPP) using an inverse modeling approach exploiting eddy covariance and satellite data. We firstly present a version of BIOME-BGC coupled with the radiative transfer models PROSPECT and SAILH (named PROSAILH-BGC) with the aims of i) improving the BIOME-BGC description of the radiative transfer regime within the canopy and ii) allowing the assimilation of remotely-sensed vegetation index time series, such as MODIS NDVI, into the model. Secondly, we present a two-step model inversion for optimization of model parameters. In the first step, some key ecophysiological parameters were optimized against data collected by an eddy covariance flux tower. In the second step, important information about phenological dates and about standing biomass were optimized against MODIS NDVI. Results obtained showed that the PROSAILH-BGC allowed simulation of MODIS NDVI with good accuracy and that we described better the canopy radiation regime. The inverse modeling approach was demonstrated to be useful for the optimization of ecophysiological model parameters, phenological dates and parameters related to the standing biomass, allowing good accuracy of daily and annual GPP predictions. In summary, this study showed that assimilation of eddy covariance and remote sensing data in a process model may provide important information for modeling gross primary production at regional scale.

  10. Modeling Gross Primary Production of Agro-Forestry Ecosystems by Assimilation of Satellite-Derived Information in a Process-Based Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guenther Seufert

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present results obtained in the framework of a regional-scale analysis of the carbon budget of poplar plantations in Northern Italy. We explored the ability of the process-based model BIOME-BGC to estimate the gross primary production (GPP using an inverse modeling approach exploiting eddy covariance and satellite data. We firstly present a version of BIOME-BGC coupled with the radiative transfer models PROSPECT and SAILH (named PROSAILH-BGC with the aims of i improving the BIOME-BGC description of the radiative transfer regime within the canopy and ii allowing the assimilation of remotely-sensed vegetation index time series, such as MODIS NDVI, into the model. Secondly, we present a two-step model inversion for optimization of model parameters. In the first step, some key ecophysiological parameters were optimized against data collected by an eddy covariance flux tower. In the second step, important information about phenological dates and about standing biomass were optimized against MODIS NDVI. Results obtained showed that the PROSAILH-BGC allowed simulation of MODIS NDVI with good accuracy and that we described better the canopy radiation regime. The inverse modeling approach was demonstrated to be useful for the optimization of ecophysiological model parameters, phenological dates and parameters related to the standing biomass, allowing good accuracy of daily and annual GPP predictions. In summary, this study showed that assimilation of eddy covariance and remote sensing data in a process model may provide important information for modeling gross primary production at regional scale.

  11. Approaches to modelling hydrology and ecosystem interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberstein, Richard P.

    2014-05-01

    As the pressures of industry, agriculture and mining on groundwater resources increase there is a burgeoning un-met need to be able to capture these multiple, direct and indirect stresses in a formal framework that will enable better assessment of impact scenarios. While there are many catchment hydrological models and there are some models that represent ecological states and change (e.g. FLAMES, Liedloff and Cook, 2007), these have not been linked in any deterministic or substantive way. Without such coupled eco-hydrological models quantitative assessments of impacts from water use intensification on water dependent ecosystems under changing climate are difficult, if not impossible. The concept would include facility for direct and indirect water related stresses that may develop around mining and well operations, climate stresses, such as rainfall and temperature, biological stresses, such as diseases and invasive species, and competition such as encroachment from other competing land uses. Indirect water impacts could be, for example, a change in groundwater conditions has an impact on stream flow regime, and hence aquatic ecosystems. This paper reviews previous work examining models combining ecology and hydrology with a view to developing a conceptual framework linking a biophysically defensable model that combines ecosystem function with hydrology. The objective is to develop a model capable of representing the cumulative impact of multiple stresses on water resources and associated ecosystem function.

  12. REMM: The Riparian Ecosystem Management Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowrance, R.; Altier, L.S.; Williams, R.G.; Inamdar, S.P.; Sheridan, J.M.; Bosch, D.D.; Hubbard, R.K.; Thomas, D.L.

    2000-03-01

    Riparian buffer zones are effective in mitigating nonpoint source pollution and have been recommended as a best management practice (BMP). The Riparian Ecosystem Management Model (REMM) has been developed for researchers and natural resource agencies as a modeling tool that can help quantify the water quality benefits of riparian buffers under varying site conditions. Processes simulated in REMM include surface and subsurface hydrology; sediment transport and deposition; carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus transport, removal, and cycling; and vegetation growth. Management options, such as vegetation type, size of the buffer zone, and biomass harvesting also can be simulated. REMM can be used in conjunction with upland models, empirical data, or estimated loadings to examine scenarios of buffer zone design for a hillslope. Evaluation of REMM simulations with field observations shows generally good agreement between simulated and observed data for groundwater nitrate concentrations and water table depths in a mature riparian forest buffer. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes that influenced the water balance or soil moisture storage affected the streamflow output. Parameter changes that influence either hydrology or rates of nutrient cycling affected total N transport and plant N uptake.

  13. Estimating net ecosystem exchange of carbon using the normalized difference vegetation index and an ecosystem model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veroustraete, F.; Patyn, J.; Myneni, R.B.

    1996-01-01

    The evaluation and prediction of changes in carbon dynamics at the ecosystem level is a key issue in studies of global change. An operational concept for the determination of carbon fluxes for the Belgian territory is the goal of the presented study. The approach is based on the integration of remotely sensed data into ecosystem models in order to evaluate photosynthetic assimilation and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Remote sensing can be developed as an operational tool to determine the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (feAR). A review of the methodological approach of mapping fPAR dynamics at the regional scale by means of NOAA11-A VHRR / 2 data for the year 1990 is given. The processing sequence from raw radiance values to fPAR is presented. An interesting aspect of incorporating remote sensing derived fPAR in ecosystem models is the potential for modeling actual as opposed to potential vegetation. Further work should prove whether the concepts presented and the assumptions made in this study are valid. (NEE). Complex ecosystem models with a highly predictive value for a specific ecosystem are generally not suitable for global or regional applications, since they require a substantial set of ancillary data becoming increasingly larger with increasing complexity of the model. The ideal model for our purpose is one that is simple enough to be used in global scale modeling, and which can be adapted for different ecosystems or vegetation types. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) during the growing season determines in part net photosynthesis and phytomass production (Ruimy, 1995). Remotely measured red and near-infrared spectral reflectances can be used to estimate fPAR. Therefore, a possible approach is to estimate net photosynthesis, phytomass, and NEE from a combination of satellite data and an ecosystem model that includes carbon dynamics. It has to be stated that some parts of the work presented in this

  14. Towards Business Process Management in networked ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johan Versendaal; dr. Martijn Zoet; Jeroen Grondelle

    2014-01-01

    Managing and supporting the collaboration between different actors is key in any organizational context, whether of a hierarchical or a networked nature. In the networked context of ecosystems of service providers and other stakeholders, BPM is faced with different challenges than in a conventional

  15. Improving Marine Ecosystem Models with Biochemical Tracers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pethybridge, Heidi R.; Choy, C. Anela; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2018-01-01

    Empirical data on food web dynamics and predator-prey interactions underpin ecosystem models, which are increasingly used to support strategic management of marine resources. These data have traditionally derived from stomach content analysis, but new and complementary forms of ecological data are increasingly available from biochemical tracer techniques. Extensive opportunities exist to improve the empirical robustness of ecosystem models through the incorporation of biochemical tracer data and derived indices, an area that is rapidly expanding because of advances in analytical developments and sophisticated statistical techniques. Here, we explore the trophic information required by ecosystem model frameworks (species, individual, and size based) and match them to the most commonly used biochemical tracers (bulk tissue and compound-specific stable isotopes, fatty acids, and trace elements). Key quantitative parameters derived from biochemical tracers include estimates of diet composition, niche width, and trophic position. Biochemical tracers also provide powerful insight into the spatial and temporal variability of food web structure and the characterization of dominant basal and microbial food web groups. A major challenge in incorporating biochemical tracer data into ecosystem models is scale and data type mismatches, which can be overcome with greater knowledge exchange and numerical approaches that transform, integrate, and visualize data.

  16. Modelling radiocesium fluxes in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, G.; Kliashtorin, A.; Mamikhin, S.; Shcheglov, A.; Rafferty, B.; Dvornik, A.; Zhuchenko, T.; Kuchma, N.

    1996-01-01

    Monitoring of radiocesium inventories and fluxes has been carried out in forest ecosystems in Ukraine, Belarus and Ireland to determine distributions and rates of migration. This information has been used to construct and calibrate mathematical models which are being used to predict the likely longevity of contamination of forests and forest products such as timber following the Chernobyl accident

  17. Lessons learned for spatial modelling of ecosystem services in support of ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schroter, M.; Remme, R.P.; Sumarga, E.; Barton, D.N.; Hein, L.G.

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of ecosystem services through spatial modelling plays a key role in ecosystem accounting. Spatial models for ecosystem services try to capture spatial heterogeneity with high accuracy. This endeavour, however, faces several practical constraints. In this article we analyse the trade-offs

  18. Quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States combining a process-based biogeochemical model and MODIS and AmeriFlux data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Satellite remote sensing provides continuous temporal and spatial information of terrestrial ecosystems. Using these remote sensing data and eddy flux measurements and biogeochemical models, such as the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM, should provide a more adequate quantification of carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI, Land Surface Water Index (LSWI and carbon flux data of AmeriFlux to conduct such a study. We first modify the gross primary production (GPP modeling in TEM by incorporating EVI and LSWI to account for the effects of the changes of canopy photosynthetic capacity, phenology and water stress. Second, we parameterize and verify the new version of TEM with eddy flux data. We then apply the model to the conterminous United States over the period 2000–2005 at a 0.05° × 0.05° spatial resolution. We find that the new version of TEM made improvement over the previous version and generally captured the expected temporal and spatial patterns of regional carbon dynamics. We estimate that regional GPP is between 7.02 and 7.78 Pg C yr−1 and net primary production (NPP ranges from 3.81 to 4.38 Pg C yr−1 and net ecosystem production (NEP varies within 0.08–0.73 Pg C yr−1 over the period 2000–2005 for the conterminous United States. The uncertainty due to parameterization is 0.34, 0.65 and 0.18 Pg C yr−1 for the regional estimates of GPP, NPP and NEP, respectively. The effects of extreme climate and disturbances such as severe drought in 2002 and destructive Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were captured by the model. Our study provides a new independent and more adequate measure of carbon fluxes for the conterminous United States, which will benefit studies of carbon-climate feedback and facilitate policy-making of carbon management and climate.

  19. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertram, Jason

    2014-01-01

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example

  20. Maximum entropy models of ecosystem functioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertram, Jason, E-mail: jason.bertram@anu.edu.au [Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2014-12-05

    Using organism-level traits to deduce community-level relationships is a fundamental problem in theoretical ecology. This problem parallels the physical one of using particle properties to deduce macroscopic thermodynamic laws, which was successfully achieved with the development of statistical physics. Drawing on this parallel, theoretical ecologists from Lotka onwards have attempted to construct statistical mechanistic theories of ecosystem functioning. Jaynes’ broader interpretation of statistical mechanics, which hinges on the entropy maximisation algorithm (MaxEnt), is of central importance here because the classical foundations of statistical physics do not have clear ecological analogues (e.g. phase space, dynamical invariants). However, models based on the information theoretic interpretation of MaxEnt are difficult to interpret ecologically. Here I give a broad discussion of statistical mechanical models of ecosystem functioning and the application of MaxEnt in these models. Emphasising the sample frequency interpretation of MaxEnt, I show that MaxEnt can be used to construct models of ecosystem functioning which are statistical mechanical in the traditional sense using a savanna plant ecology model as an example.

  1. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man. 42 refs, 3 tabs, 9 figs.

  2. Modelling of radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems. A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.; Moberg, L.; Hubbard, L.

    1998-03-01

    The Chernobyl accident has clearly shown the long-term effects of a radioactive contamination of forest ecosystems. This report is based on a literature review of models which describe the migration of radionuclides, radioactive caesium in particular, in forest ecosystems. The report describes the particularities of the forest ecosystem, the time dynamics of the contamination, the transfer processes and factors influencing caesium migration. This provides a basis for a discussion of different approaches for modelling caesium migration in the forest. It is concluded that the studied dynamic models include the most relevant transfer processes both for the acute and the long-term phase after a radioactive deposition. However, most models are site specific and do not consider some of the factors responsible for the differences in radionuclide behaviour and distribution in different types of forests. Although model improvements are constrained by the availability of experimental data and by the lack of knowledge of the migration mechanisms some possible improvements are discussed. This report is part of the LANDSCAPE project. -An integrated approach to radionuclide flow in the semi-natural ecosystems underlying exposure pathways to man

  3. Disturbance, Functional Diversity and Ecosystem Processes: Does Species Identity Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Emrick III, Verl Roy

    2013-01-01

    The role of disturbance is widely recognized as a fundamental driver of ecological organization from individual species to entire landscapes. Anthropogenic disturbances from military training provide a unique opportunity to examine effects of disturbance on vegetation dynamics, physicochemical soil properties, and ecosystem processes. Additionally, plant functional diversity has been suggested as the key to ecosystem processes such as productivity and nutrient dynamics. I investigated how dis...

  4. Modeling and Security in Cloud Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo B. Fernandez

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Clouds do not work in isolation but interact with other clouds and with a variety of systems either developed by the same provider or by external entities with the purpose to interact with them; forming then an ecosystem. A software ecosystem is a collection of software systems that have been developed to coexist and evolve together. The stakeholders of such a system need a variety of models to give them a perspective of the possibilities of the system, to evaluate specific quality attributes, and to extend the system. A powerful representation when building or using software ecosystems is the use of architectural models, which describe the structural aspects of such a system. These models have value for security and compliance, are useful to build new systems, can be used to define service contracts, find where quality factors can be monitored, and to plan further expansion. We have described a cloud ecosystem in the form of a pattern diagram where its components are patterns and reference architectures. A pattern is an encapsulated solution to a recurrent problem. We have recently expanded these models to cover fog systems and containers. Fog Computing is a highly-virtualized platform that provides compute, storage, and networking services between end devices and Cloud Computing Data Centers; a Software Container provides an execution environment for applications sharing a host operating system, binaries, and libraries with other containers. We intend to use this architecture to answer a variety of questions about the security of this system as well as a reference to design interacting combinations of heterogeneous components. We defined a metamodel to relate security concepts which is being expanded.

  5. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R; Porter, M

    2008-01-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  6. Discontinuity in the responses of ecosystem processes and multifunctionality to altered soil community composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, Mark A; Wood, Stephen A; Bardgett, Richard D; Black, Helaina I J; Bonkowski, Michael; Eggers, Till; Grayston, Susan J; Kandeler, Ellen; Manning, Peter; Setälä, Heikki; Jones, T Hefin

    2014-10-07

    Ecosystem management policies increasingly emphasize provision of multiple, as opposed to single, ecosystem services. Management for such "multifunctionality" has stimulated research into the role that biodiversity plays in providing desired rates of multiple ecosystem processes. Positive effects of biodiversity on indices of multifunctionality are consistently found, primarily because species that are redundant for one ecosystem process under a given set of environmental conditions play a distinct role under different conditions or in the provision of another ecosystem process. Here we show that the positive effects of diversity (specifically community composition) on multifunctionality indices can also arise from a statistical fallacy analogous to Simpson's paradox (where aggregating data obscures causal relationships). We manipulated soil faunal community composition in combination with nitrogen fertilization of model grassland ecosystems and repeatedly measured five ecosystem processes related to plant productivity, carbon storage, and nutrient turnover. We calculated three common multifunctionality indices based on these processes and found that the functional complexity of the soil communities had a consistent positive effect on the indices. However, only two of the five ecosystem processes also responded positively to increasing complexity, whereas the other three responded neutrally or negatively. Furthermore, none of the individual processes responded to both the complexity and the nitrogen manipulations in a manner consistent with the indices. Our data show that multifunctionality indices can obscure relationships that exist between communities and key ecosystem processes, leading us to question their use in advancing theoretical understanding--and in management decisions--about how biodiversity is related to the provision of multiple ecosystem services.

  7. Same pattern, different mechanism: Locking onto the role of key species in seafloor ecosystem process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodin, Sarah Ann; Volkenborn, Nils; Pilditch, Conrad A; Lohrer, Andrew M; Wethey, David S; Hewitt, Judi E; Thrush, Simon F

    2016-05-27

    Seafloor biodiversity is a key mediator of ecosystem functioning, but its role is often excluded from global budgets or simplified to black boxes in models. New techniques allow quantification of the behavior of animals living below the sediment surface and assessment of the ecosystem consequences of complex interactions, yielding a better understanding of the role of seafloor animals in affecting key processes like primary productivity. Combining predictions based on natural history, behavior of key benthic species and environmental context allow assessment of differences in functioning and process, even when the measured ecosystem property in different systems is similar. Data from three sedimentary systems in New Zealand illustrate this. Analysis of the behaviors of the infaunal ecosystem engineers in each system revealed three very different mechanisms driving ecosystem function: density and excretion, sediment turnover and surface rugosity, and hydraulic activities and porewater bioadvection. Integrative metrics of ecosystem function in some cases differentiate among the systems (gross primary production) and in others do not (photosynthetic efficiency). Analyses based on behaviors and activities revealed important ecosystem functional differences and can dramatically improve our ability to model the impact of stressors on ecosystem and global processes.

  8. Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    1997-01-01

    Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

  9. Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for ecosystem carbon cycle studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Y. He; Q. Zhuang; A.D. McGuire; Y. Liu; M. Chen

    2013-01-01

    Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations inmodeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the...

  10. Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quackenbush, A.

    2015-12-01

    Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model

  11. Biomass is the main driver of changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohbeck, Madelon; Poorter, Lourens; Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Bongers, Frans

    2015-05-01

    Over half of the world's forests are disturbed, and the rate at which ecosystem processes recover after disturbance is important for the services these forests can provide. We analyze the drivers' underlying changes in rates of key ecosystem processes (biomass productivity, litter productivity, actual litter decomposition, and potential litter decomposition) during secondary succession after shifting cultivation in wet tropical forest of Mexico. We test the importance of three alternative drivers of ecosystem processes: vegetation biomass (vegetation quantity hypothesis), community-weighted trait mean (mass ratio hypothesis), and functional diversity (niche complementarity hypothesis) using structural equation modeling. This allows us to infer the relative importance of different mechanisms underlying ecosystem process recovery. Ecosystem process rates changed during succession, and the strongest driver was aboveground biomass for each of the processes. Productivity of aboveground stem biomass and leaf litter as well as actual litter decomposition increased with initial standing vegetation biomass, whereas potential litter decomposition decreased with standing biomass. Additionally, biomass productivity was positively affected by community-weighted mean of specific leaf area, and potential decomposition was positively affected by functional divergence, and negatively by community-weighted mean of leaf dry matter content. Our empirical results show that functional diversity and community-weighted means are of secondary importance for explaining changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession. Instead, simply, the amount of vegetation in a site is the major driver of changes, perhaps because there is a steep biomass buildup during succession that overrides more subtle effects of community functional properties on ecosystem processes. We recommend future studies in the field of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning to separate the effects of

  12. Review on the Application of Ecosystem Models in Biodiversity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is an exposition with the sole aim of highlighting the relevance of ecosystem models in the analyses of biodiversity. The structure of ecosystem models enables researchers to design and consequently formulate monitoring programs that will be useful to the conservation of biodiversity. Ecosystem theoretical ...

  13. Dominance, biomass and extinction resistance determine the consequences of biodiversity loss for multiple coastal ecosystem processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Thomas W; Jenkins, Stuart R; Kingham, Rachel; Kenworthy, Joseph; Hawkins, Stephen J; Hiddink, Jan G

    2011-01-01

    Key ecosystem processes such as carbon and nutrient cycling could be deteriorating as a result of biodiversity loss. However, currently we lack the ability to predict the consequences of realistic species loss on ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to test whether species contributions to community biomass can be used as surrogate measures of their contribution to ecosystem processes. These were gross community productivity in a salt marsh plant assemblage and an intertidal macroalgae assemblage; community clearance of microalgae in sessile suspension feeding invertebrate assemblage; and nutrient uptake in an intertidal macroalgae assemblage. We conducted a series of biodiversity manipulations that represented realistic species extinction sequences in each of the three contrasting assemblages. Species were removed in a subtractive fashion so that biomass was allowed to vary with each species removal, and key ecosystem processes were measured at each stage of community disassembly. The functional contribution of species was directly proportional to their contribution to community biomass in a 1:1 ratio, a relationship that was consistent across three contrasting marine ecosystems and three ecosystem processes. This suggests that the biomass contributed by a species to an assemblage can be used to approximately predict the proportional decline in an ecosystem process when that species is lost. Such predictions represent "worst case scenarios" because, over time, extinction resilient species can offset the loss of biomass associated with the extinction of competitors. We also modelled a "best case scenario" that accounts for compensatory responses by the extant species with the highest per capita contribution to ecosystem processes. These worst and best case scenarios could be used to predict the minimum and maximum species required to sustain threshold values of ecosystem processes in the future.

  14. Dominance, biomass and extinction resistance determine the consequences of biodiversity loss for multiple coastal ecosystem processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas W Davies

    Full Text Available Key ecosystem processes such as carbon and nutrient cycling could be deteriorating as a result of biodiversity loss. However, currently we lack the ability to predict the consequences of realistic species loss on ecosystem processes. The aim of this study was to test whether species contributions to community biomass can be used as surrogate measures of their contribution to ecosystem processes. These were gross community productivity in a salt marsh plant assemblage and an intertidal macroalgae assemblage; community clearance of microalgae in sessile suspension feeding invertebrate assemblage; and nutrient uptake in an intertidal macroalgae assemblage. We conducted a series of biodiversity manipulations that represented realistic species extinction sequences in each of the three contrasting assemblages. Species were removed in a subtractive fashion so that biomass was allowed to vary with each species removal, and key ecosystem processes were measured at each stage of community disassembly. The functional contribution of species was directly proportional to their contribution to community biomass in a 1:1 ratio, a relationship that was consistent across three contrasting marine ecosystems and three ecosystem processes. This suggests that the biomass contributed by a species to an assemblage can be used to approximately predict the proportional decline in an ecosystem process when that species is lost. Such predictions represent "worst case scenarios" because, over time, extinction resilient species can offset the loss of biomass associated with the extinction of competitors. We also modelled a "best case scenario" that accounts for compensatory responses by the extant species with the highest per capita contribution to ecosystem processes. These worst and best case scenarios could be used to predict the minimum and maximum species required to sustain threshold values of ecosystem processes in the future.

  15. Modelling the Congo basin ecosystems with a dynamic vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dury, Marie; Hambuckers, Alain; Trolliet, Franck; Huynen, Marie-Claude; Haineaux, Damien; Fontaine, Corentin M.; Fayolle, Adeline; François, Louis

    2014-05-01

    The scarcity of field observations in some parts of the world makes difficult a deep understanding of some ecosystems such as humid tropical forests in Central Africa. Therefore, modelling tools are interesting alternatives to study those regions even if the lack of data often prevents sharp calibration and validation of the model projections. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) are process-based models that simulate shifts in potential vegetation and its associated biogeochemical and hydrological cycles in response to climate. Initially run at the global scale, DVMs can be run at any spatial scale provided that climate and soil data are available. In the framework of the BIOSERF project ("Sustainability of tropical forest biodiversity and services under climate and human pressure"), we use and adapt the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 4:82-99, 2011) to study the Congo basin vegetation dynamics. The field campaigns have notably allowed the refinement of the vegetation representation from plant functional types (PFTs) to individual species through the collection of parameters such as the specific leaf area or the leaf C:N ratio of common tropical tree species and the location of their present-day occurrences from literature and available database. Here, we test the model ability to reproduce the present spatial and temporal variations of carbon stocks (e.g. biomass, soil carbon) and fluxes (e.g. gross and net primary productivities (GPP and NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP)) as well as the observed distribution of the studied species over the Congo basin. In the lack of abundant and long-term measurements, we compare model results with time series of remote sensing products (e.g. vegetation leaf area index (LAI), GPP and NPP). Several sensitivity tests are presented: we assess consecutively the impacts of the level at which the vegetation is simulated (PFTs or species), the spatial resolution and the initial land

  16. A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loefgren, Anders

    2003-09-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes

  17. A descriptive ecosystem model - a strategy for model development during site investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loefgren, Anders [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Botany; Lindborg, Tobias [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2003-09-01

    This report describes a strategy for the development of a site descriptive model for the surface ecosystem on the potential deep repository sites. The surface ecosystem embraces many disciplines, and these have to be identified, described and integrated in order to construct a descriptive ecosystem model that describes and quantifies biotic and abiotic patterns and processes of importance for the ecosystem on the site. The descriptive model includes both present day conditions and historical information. The descriptive ecosystem model will be used to supply input data for the safety assessment and to serve as the baseline model for devising a monitoring program to detect short-term disturbances caused first by the site investigations and later by the construction of the deep repository. Furthermore, it will serve as a reference for future comparisons to determine more long-term effects or changes caused by the deep repository. The report adopts a non-site-specific approach focusing on the following aims: 1. To present and define the properties that will constitute the descriptive ecosystem model. 2. To present a methodology for determining those properties. 3. To describe and develop the framework for the descriptive ecosystem model by integrating the different properties. 4. To present vital data from other site descriptive models such as those for geology or hydrogeology that interacts with and affects the descriptive ecosystem model. The properties are described under four different sections: general physical properties of the landscape, the terrestrial system, the limnic system and the marine system. These headings are further subdivided into entities that integrate properties in relation to processes.

  18. Analyzing, Modelling, and Designing Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    as the software development and distribution by a set of actors dependent on each other and the ecosystem. We commence on the hypothesis that the establishment of a software ecosystem on the telemedicine services of Denmark would address these issues and investigate how a software ecosystem can foster...... the development, implementation, and use of telemedicine services. We initially expand the theory of software ecosystems by contributing to the definition and understanding of software ecosystems, providing means of analyzing existing and designing new ecosystems, and defining and measuring the qualities...... of software ecosystems. We use these contributions to design a software ecosystem in the telemedicine services of Denmark with (i) a common platform that supports and promotes development from different actors, (ii) high software interaction, (iii) strong social network of actors, (iv) robust business...

  19. Identification of ecosystem parameters by SDE-modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for ecosystem modelling have attracted increasing attention during recent years. The modelling has mostly been through simulation experiments in order to analyse how system noise propagates through the ordinary differential equation formulation of ecosystem...... models. Estimation of parameters in SDEs is, however, possible by combining Kalman filter techniques and likelihood estimation. By modelling parameters as random walks it is possible to identify linear as well as non-linear interactions between ecosystem components. By formulating a simple linear SDE...

  20. Integrated modelling of ecosystem services and energy systems research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwala, Matthew; Lovett, Andrew; Bateman, Ian; Day, Brett; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ziv, Guy

    2016-04-01

    The UK Government is formally committed to reducing carbon emissions and protecting and improving natural capital and the environment. However, actually delivering on these objectives requires an integrated approach to addressing two parallel challenges: de-carbonising future energy system pathways; and safeguarding natural capital to ensure the continued flow of ecosystem services. Although both emphasise benefiting from natural resources, efforts to connect natural capital and energy systems research have been limited, meaning opportunities to improve management of natural resources and meet society's energy needs could be missed. The ecosystem services paradigm provides a consistent conceptual framework that applies in multiple disciplines across the natural and economic sciences, and facilitates collaboration between them. At the forefront of the field, integrated ecosystem service - economy models have guided public- and private-sector decision making at all levels. Models vary in sophistication from simple spreadsheet tools to complex software packages integrating biophysical, GIS and economic models and draw upon many fields, including ecology, hydrology, geography, systems theory, economics and the social sciences. They also differ in their ability to value changes in natural capital and ecosystem services at various spatial and temporal scales. Despite these differences, current models share a common feature: their treatment of energy systems is superficial at best. In contrast, energy systems research has no widely adopted, unifying conceptual framework that organises thinking about key system components and interactions. Instead, the literature is organised around modelling approaches, including life cycle analyses, econometric investigations, linear programming and computable general equilibrium models. However, some consistencies do emerge. First, often contain a linear set of steps, from exploration to resource supply, fuel processing, conversion

  1. Forest Ecosystem Processes at the Watershed Scale: Ecosystem services, feedback and evolution in developing mountainous catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Band, Larry

    2010-05-01

    significant increase in population in the Southern Appalachians, with new building of second homes in steep headwaters, requiring significant expansion in high altitude roads, in contrast with traditional valley bottom development. With additional increases in hydrologic extremes (heavy precipitation and drought), and progressive changes in forest composition there has been increases in hazard from flash flooding, landslide activity and degraded water quality. The evaluation of integrated watershed impacts of the expected changes in climate and land management requires an interdisciplinary approach including direct feedbacks between ecological, hydrological, geomorphic and atmospheric processes within the framework of an adapting social system. Advances in this type of interdisciplinary research require a network of ecohydrologic observatories generating long term, multi-dimensional data, and a science community working across the interface of multiple fields. Adding individual and institutional behavior as an input or interactive component of watershed ecosystems remains a challenge that spans ecological, hydrological and social science.

  2. Representing the root water uptake process in the Common Land Model for better simulating the energy and water vapour fluxes in a Central Asian desert ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Longhui; van der Tol, C.; Chen, Xuelong; Jing, C.; Su, Zhongbo; Luo, G.; Tian, Xin

    2013-01-01

    The ability of roots to take up water depends on both root distribution and root water uptake efficiency. The former can be experimentally measured, while the latter is extremely difficult to determine. Yet a correct representation of root water uptake process in land surface models (LSMs) is

  3. Comparing the Applicability of Commonly Used Hydrological Ecosystem Services Models for Integrated Decision-Support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Lüke

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Different simulation models are used in science and practice in order to incorporate hydrological ecosystem services in decision-making processes. This contribution compares three simulation models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a traditional hydrological model and two ecosystem services models, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model and the Resource Investment Optimization System model. The three models are compared on a theoretical and conceptual basis as well in a comparative case study application. The application of the models to a study area in Nicaragua reveals that a practical benefit to apply these models for different questions in decision-making generally exists. However, modelling of hydrological ecosystem services is associated with a high application effort and requires input data that may not always be available. The degree of detail in temporal and spatial variability in ecosystem service provision is higher when using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool compared to the two ecosystem service models. In contrast, the ecosystem service models have lower requirements on input data and process knowledge. A relationship between service provision and beneficiaries is readily produced and can be visualized as a model output. The visualization is especially useful for a practical decision-making context.

  4. Upscaling key ecosystem functions across the conterminous United States by a water‐centric ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Peter Caldwell; Asko Noormets; Steven G. McNulty; Erika Cohen; al. et.

    2011-01-01

    We developed a water‐centric monthly scale simulation model (WaSSI‐C) by integrating empirical water and carbon flux measurements from the FLUXNET network and an existing water supply and demand accounting model (WaSSI). The WaSSI‐C model was evaluated with basin‐scale evapotranspiration (ET), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE)...

  5. Using models in Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of coastal areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Bandelj, Vinko; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Melaku Canu, Donata; Libralato, Simone

    2014-05-01

    Numerical Models can greatly contribute to integrated ecological assessment of coastal and marine systems. Indeed, models can: i) assist in the identification of efficient sampling strategy; ii) provide space interpolation and time extrapolation of experiemtanl data which are based on the knowedge on processes dynamics and causal realtionships which is coded within the model, iii) provide estimates of hardly measurable indicators. Furthermore model can provide indication on potential effects of implementation of alternative management policies. Finally, by providing a synthetic representation of an ideal system, based on its essential dynamic, model return a picture of ideal behaviour of a system in the absence of external perturbation, alteration, noise, which might help in the identification of reference behaivuor. As an important example, model based reanalyses of biogeochemical and ecological properties are an urgent need for the estimate of the environmental status and the assessment of efficacy of conservation and environmental policies, also with reference to the enforcement of the European MSFD. However, the use of numerical models, and particularly of ecological models, in modeling and in environmental management still is far from be the rule, possibly because of a lack in realizing the benefits which a full integration of modeling and montoring systems might provide, possibly because of a lack of trust in modeling results, or because many problems still exists in the development, validation and implementation of models. For istance, assessing the validity of model results is a complex process that requires the definition of appropriate indicators, metrics, methodologies and faces with the scarcity of real-time in-situ biogeochemical data. Furthermore, biogeochemical models typically consider dozens of variables which are heavily undersampled. Here we show how the integration of mathematical model and monitoring data can support integrated ecosystem

  6. A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trolle, Didde; Hamilton, D. P.; Hipsey, M. R.

    2012-01-01

    Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through...... a literature survey, we document the growing importance of numerical aquatic ecosystem models while also noting the difficulties, up until now, of the aquatic scientific community to make significant advances in these models during the past two decades. Through a common forum for aquatic ecosystem modellers we...... aim to (i) advance collaboration within the aquatic ecosystem modelling community, (ii) enable increased use of models for research, policy and ecosystem-based management, (iii) facilitate a collective framework using common (standardised) code to ensure that model development is incremental, (iv...

  7. Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forest ecosystems in the southern United States are dramatically altered by three major 26 disturbances: timber harvesting, hurricane, and permanent land conversion. Understanding and quantifying effects of disturbance on forest carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles is critical for sustainable forest m...

  8. Identification of the main processes underlying ecosystem functioning in the Eastern English Channel, with a focus on flatfish species, as revealed through the application of the Atlantis end-to-end model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girardin, Raphaël; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Lehuta, Sigrid; Rolland, Marie; Thébaud, Olivier; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Vermard, Youen; Marchal, Paul

    2018-02-01

    The ecosystem model Atlantis was used to investigate the key dynamics and processes that structure the Eastern English Channel ecosystem, with a particular focus on two commercial flatfish species, sole (Solea solea) and plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). This complex model was parameterized with data collected from diverse sources (a literature review, survey data, as well as landings and stock assessment information) and tuned so both simulated biomass and catch fit 2002-2011 observations. Here, the outputs are mainly presented for the two focus species and for some other vertebrates found to be important in the trophic network. The calibration process revealed the importance of coastal areas in the Eastern English Channel and of nutrient inputs from estuaries: a lack of river nutrients decreases the productivity of nursery grounds and adversely affects the production of sole and plaice. The role of discards in the trophic network is also highlighted. While sole and plaice did not have a strong influence on the trophic network of vertebrates, they are important predators for benthic invertebrates and compete for food with crustaceans, whiting (Merlangius merlangus) and other demersal fish. We also found that two key species, cod (Gadus morhua) and whiting, thoroughly structured the Eastern English Channel trophic network.

  9. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of South America...

  10. Ecosystem Demography Model: Scaling Vegetation Dynamics Across South America

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of...

  11. Can models help to forecast rainwater dynamics for rainfed ecosystem?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Ahmed

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models are important tools to explore and illustrate dynamics of climatic variables in crop based ecosystem. In the rainfed ecosystem (RE, wheat production is impinged on certain climatic events per se high variability in rainfall and increased temperature. These climatic events turn out due to climatic drivers like Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs and pressure. Current study is aimed to analyze long term rainfall data (1961–2011 of Pakistan׳s rainfed ecosystem zone (Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang by using Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM and R model. The principal objective of this analysis was to study the link between SOI phases and SSTs; and thereby understanding the pattern of climate change due to these climatic drivers under rainfed conditions in Pakistan. The results revealed a positive link between July SOI phases and the rainfall variability during October–November (the sowing time of wheat in Pakistan. Long term rainfall data analysis (1961–2011 of Islamabad, Chakwal and Talagang revealed 44%, 40%, 35% possibility of exceeding median rainfall near zero whereas probability of consistently negative SOI phases were 35%, 34% and 33% respectively during July. Similarly, the forecasting results estimated by R using covariates like dry spell, NINO1.2, NINO3, NINO4, NINO3.4 and IOD of different months revealed that prediction of monsoon, wheat early growth, wheat grain filling period and total wheat growing season rainfall, have significant signals with climatic drivers. The study justified the importance of models in the decision making processes and rainfall forecasting as a beneficial and necessary tool for rainfed ecosystem conservation.

  12. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janssen, Annette B G; Arhonditsis, George B.; Beusen, Arthur

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality...... management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity...... available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5–10 years...

  13. Microbial communities, processes and functions in acid mine drainage ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin-xing; Huang, Li-nan; Méndez-García, Celia; Kuang, Jia-liang; Hua, Zheng-shuang; Liu, Jun; Shu, Wen-sheng

    2016-04-01

    Acid mine drainage (AMD) is generated from the oxidative dissolution of metal sulfides when water and oxygen are available largely due to human mining activities. This process can be accelerated by indigenous microorganisms. In the last several decades, culture-dependent researches have uncovered and validated the roles of AMD microorganisms in metal sulfides oxidation and acid generation processes, and culture-independent studies have largely revealed the diversity and metabolic potentials and activities of AMD communities, leading towards a full understanding of the microbial diversity, functions and interactions in AMD ecosystems. This review describes the diversity of microorganisms and their functions in AMD ecosystems, and discusses their biotechnological applications in biomining and AMD bioremediation according to their capabilities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Prototyping an online wetland ecosystem services model using open model sharing standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, M.; Liu, S.; Euliss, N.H.; Young, Caitlin; Mushet, D.M.

    2011-01-01

    Great interest currently exists for developing ecosystem models to forecast how ecosystem services may change under alternative land use and climate futures. Ecosystem services are diverse and include supporting services or functions (e.g., primary production, nutrient cycling), provisioning services (e.g., wildlife, groundwater), regulating services (e.g., water purification, floodwater retention), and even cultural services (e.g., ecotourism, cultural heritage). Hence, the knowledge base necessary to quantify ecosystem services is broad and derived from many diverse scientific disciplines. Building the required interdisciplinary models is especially challenging as modelers from different locations and times may develop the disciplinary models needed for ecosystem simulations, and these models must be identified and made accessible to the interdisciplinary simulation. Additional difficulties include inconsistent data structures, formats, and metadata required by geospatial models as well as limitations on computing, storage, and connectivity. Traditional standalone and closed network systems cannot fully support sharing and integrating interdisciplinary geospatial models from variant sources. To address this need, we developed an approach to openly share and access geospatial computational models using distributed Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and open geospatial standards. We included a means to share computational models compliant with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Services (WPS) standard to ensure modelers have an efficient and simplified means to publish new models. To demonstrate our approach, we developed five disciplinary models that can be integrated and shared to simulate a few of the ecosystem services (e.g., water storage, waterfowl breeding) that are provided by wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America.

  15. Modelling C₃ photosynthesis from the chloroplast to the ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernacchi, Carl J; Bagley, Justin E; Serbin, Shawn P; Ruiz-Vera, Ursula M; Rosenthal, David M; Vanloocke, Andy

    2013-09-01

    Globally, photosynthesis accounts for the largest flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere into ecosystems and is the driving process for terrestrial ecosystem function. The importance of accurate predictions of photosynthesis over a range of plant growth conditions led to the development of a C₃ photosynthesis model by Farquhar, von Caemmerer & Berry that has become increasingly important as society places greater pressures on vegetation. The photosynthesis model has played a major role in defining the path towards scientific understanding of photosynthetic carbon uptake and the role of photosynthesis on regulating the earth's climate and biogeochemical systems. In this review, we summarize the photosynthesis model, including its continued development and applications. We also review the implications these developments have on quantifying photosynthesis at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, and discuss the model's role in determining photosynthetic responses to changes in environmental conditions. Finally, the review includes a discussion of the larger-scale modelling and remote-sensing applications that rely on the leaf photosynthesis model and are likely to open new scientific avenues to address the increasing challenges to plant productivity over the next century. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  16. A methodology for ecosystem-scale modeling of selenium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presser, T.S.; Luoma, S.N.

    2010-01-01

    The main route of exposure for selenium (Se) is dietary, yet regulations lack biologically based protocols for evaluations of risk. We propose here an ecosystem-scale model that conceptualizes and quantifies the variables that determinehow Se is processed from water through diet to predators. This approach uses biogeochemical and physiological factors from laboratory and field studies and considers loading, speciation, transformation to particulate material, bioavailability, bioaccumulation in invertebrates, and trophic transfer to predators. Validation of the model is through data sets from 29 historic and recent field case studies of Se-exposed sites. The model links Se concentrations across media (water, particulate, tissue of different food web species). It can be used to forecast toxicity under different management or regulatory proposals or as a methodology for translating a fish-tissue (or other predator tissue) Se concentration guideline to a dissolved Se concentration. The model illustrates some critical aspects of implementing a tissue criterion: 1) the choice of fish species determines the food web through which Se should be modeled, 2) the choice of food web is critical because the particulate material to prey kinetics of bioaccumulation differs widely among invertebrates, 3) the characterization of the type and phase of particulate material is important to quantifying Se exposure to prey through the base of the food web, and 4) the metric describing partitioning between particulate material and dissolved Se concentrations allows determination of a site-specific dissolved Se concentration that would be responsible for that fish body burden in the specific environment. The linked approach illustrates that environmentally safe dissolved Se concentrations will differ among ecosystems depending on the ecological pathways and biogeochemical conditions in that system. Uncertainties and model sensitivities can be directly illustrated by varying exposure

  17. Are more complex physiological models of forest ecosystems better choices for plot and regional predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenchi Jin; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson

    2016-01-01

    Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models...

  18. Study on the ecosystem construction of using ecopath model in inland waterway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Junjie; Bai, Jing; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Ning; Shou, Youping

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, Ecopath with Ecosim 5.1 software is used to simulate the constructed water ecosystem of inland waterway. According to the characteristics of feeding relationship, the ecopath model of water ecosystem is divided into seven functional groups: phytoplankton, hydrophyte, zooplankton, herbivorous, omnivorous, polychaetes and detritus. By analyzing the important ecological parameters of the ecosystem, such as biomass, biomass / biomass, consumption / biomass, trophic level and ecological nutrient conversion efficiency, the software integrates the energy flow process of the ecosystem, the ratio of the total net primary production and the sum of all respiratory flows is 1.314, it’s indicating that the ecosystem is equilibrium. The research method of this paper can be widely used to evaluate the stability of the ecosystem of the domestic river.

  19. Global sensitivity analysis of DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated forest ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Devendra M. Amatya; Eric D. Vance

    2014-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis is a useful tool to understand process-based ecosystem models by identifying key parameters and processes controlling model predictions. This study reported a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis for DRAINMOD-FOREST, an integrated model for simulating water, carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) cycles and plant growth in lowland forests. The...

  20. A model ecosystem experiment and its computational simulation studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, M.

    2002-01-01

    Simplified microbial model ecosystem and its computer simulation model are introduced as eco-toxicity test for the assessment of environmental responses from the effects of environmental impacts. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to select the keystone species on the basis of ecological knowledge, and to put it in the single-species toxicity test. Another option proposed is to put the eco-toxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and a theoretical model ecosystem analysis. With these tests, the stressors which are more harmful to the ecosystems should be replace with less harmful ones on the basis of unified measures. Management of radioactive materials, chemicals, hyper-eutrophic, and other artificial disturbances of ecosystem should be discussed consistently from the unified view point of environmental protection. (N.C.)

  1. A general predictive model for estimating monthly ecosystem evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Karrin Alstad; Jiquan Chen; Shiping Chen; Chelcy R. Ford; al. et.

    2011-01-01

    Accurately quantifying evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for modelling regional-scale ecosystem water balances. This study assembled an ET data set estimated from eddy flux and sapflow measurements for 13 ecosystems across a large climatic and management gradient from the United States, China, and Australia. Our objectives were to determine the relationships among...

  2. An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

    2008-01-01

    [1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

  3. A blueprint for mapping and modelling ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crossman, N.; Burkhard, B.; Nedkov, S.; Willemen, L.L.J.; Petz, K.; Palomo, I.; Drakou, E.G.; Martín-Lopez, B.; McPhearson, T.; Boyanova, K.; Alkemade, R.; Egoh, B.; Dunbar, M.D.; Maes, J.

    2013-01-01

    The inconsistency in methods to quantify and map ecosystem services challenges the development of robust values of ecosystem services in national accounts and broader policy and natural resource management decision-making. In this paper we develop and test a blueprint to give guidance on modelling

  4. Simulation modelling of fynbos ecosystems: Systems analysis and conceptual models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kruger, FJ

    1985-03-01

    Full Text Available -animal interactions. An additional two models, which expand aspects of the FYNBOS model, are described: a model for simulating canopy processes; and a Fire Recovery Simulator. The canopy process model will simulate ecophysiological processes in more detail than FYNBOS...

  5. Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin

    2011-01-01

    The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

  6. Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

  7. Modelling benthic biophysical drivers of ecosystem structure and biogeochemical response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Nicholas; Bruggeman, Jorn; Lessin, Gennadi; Allen, Icarus

    2016-04-01

    The fate of carbon deposited at the sea floor is ultimately decided by biophysical drivers that control the efficiency of remineralisation and timescale of carbon burial in sediments. Specifically, these drivers include bioturbation through ingestion and movement, burrow-flushing and sediment reworking, which enhance vertical particulate transport and solute diffusion. Unfortunately, these processes are rarely satisfactorily resolved in models. To address this, a benthic model that explicitly describes the vertical position of biology (e.g., habitats) and biogeochemical processes is presented that includes biological functionality and biogeochemical response capturing changes in ecosystem structure, benthic-pelagic fluxes and biodiversity on inter-annual timescales. This is demonstrated by the model's ability to reproduce temporal variability in benthic infauna, vertical pore water nutrients and pelagic-benthic solute fluxes compared to in-situ data. A key advance is the replacement of bulk parameterisation of bioturbation by explicit description of the bio-physical processes responsible. This permits direct comparison with observations and determination of key parameters in experiments. Crucially, the model resolves the two-way interaction between sediment biogeochemistry and ecology, allowing exploration of the benthic response to changing environmental conditions, the importance of infaunal functional traits in shaping benthic ecological structure and the feedback the resulting bio-physical processes exert on pore water nutrient profiles. The model is actively being used to understand shelf sea carbon cycling, the response of the benthos to climatic change, food provision and other societal benefits.

  8. Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Fro...... that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context...

  9. How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Kuiper, Jan J.; Leemans, Rik; Robson, Barbara J.; van de Leemput, Ingrid A.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2015-11-01

    Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic models are useful tools in assessing the synergistic effects of local and global stressors on ecosystem functions. We review representative approaches for dynamically modeling coral reef ecosystems and categorize them as minimal, intermediate and complex models. The categorization was based on the leading principle for model development and their level of realism and process detail. This review aims to improve the knowledge of concurrent approaches in coral reef ecosystem modeling and highlights the importance of choosing an appropriate approach based on the type of question(s) to be answered. We contend that minimal and intermediate models are generally valuable tools to assess the response of key states to main stressors and, hence, contribute to understanding ecological surprises. As has been shown in freshwater resources management, insight into these conceptual relations profoundly influences how natural resource managers perceive their systems and how they manage ecosystem recovery. We argue that adaptive resource management requires integrated thinking and decision support, which demands a diversity of modeling approaches. Integration can be achieved through complimentary use of models or through integrated models that systemically combine all relevant aspects in one model. Such whole-of-system models can be useful tools for quantitatively evaluating scenarios. These models allow an assessment of the interactive effects of multiple stressors on various, potentially conflicting, management objectives. All models simplify reality and, as such, have their weaknesses. While minimal models lack multidimensionality, system models are likely difficult to interpret as they

  10. Model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1980-01-01

    A linear compartment model with donor-controlled flows between compartments was designed to describe and simulate the behavior of plutonium ( 239 240 Pu) in a contaminated forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, TN. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the plutonium in the ecosystem resides in biota. Soil is the major repository of plutonium in the forest, and exchanges of plutonium between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of plutonium. Variation in predicted steady-state amounts of plutonium in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicates that our ability to develop models of plutonium transport in ecosystems should improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in plutonium data

  11. Predicting ecosystem functioning from plant traits: Results from a multi-scale ecophsiological modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijk, van M.T.

    2007-01-01

    Ecosystem functioning is the result of processes working at a hierarchy of scales. The representation of these processes in a model that is mathematically tractable and ecologically meaningful is a big challenge. In this paper I describe an individual based model (PLACO¿PLAnt COmpetition) that

  12. Ecological and Social Dynamics in Simple Models of Ecosystem Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available Simulation models were developed to explore and illustrate dynamics of socioecological systems. The ecosystem is a lake subject to phosphorus pollution. Phosphorus flows from agriculture to upland soils, to surface waters, where it cycles between water and sediments. The ecosystem is multistable, and moves among domains of attraction depending on the history of pollutant inputs. The alternative states yield different economic benefits. Agents form expectations about ecosystem dynamics, markets, and/or the actions of managers, and choose levels of pollutant inputs accordingly. Agents have heterogeneous beliefs and/or access to information. Their aggregate behavior determines the total rate of pollutant input. As the ecosystem changes, agents update their beliefs and expectations about the world they co-create, and modify their actions accordingly. For a wide range of scenarios, we observe irregular oscillations among ecosystem states and patterns of agent behavior. These oscillations resemble some features of the adaptive cycle of panarchy theory.

  13. The evolution of ecosystem ascendency in a complex systems based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinck, Katharina; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft

    2017-09-07

    General patterns in ecosystem development can shed light on driving forces behind ecosystem formation and recovery and have been of long interest. In recent years, the need for integrative and process oriented approaches to capture ecosystem growth, development and organisation, as well as the scope of information theory as a descriptive tool has been addressed from various sides. However data collection of ecological network flows is difficult and tedious and comprehensive models are lacking. We use a hierarchical version of the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary ecology to study the relationship between structure, flow and organisation in model ecosystems, their development over evolutionary time scales and their relation to ecosystem stability. Our findings support the validity of ecosystem ascendency as a meaningful measure of ecosystem organisation, which increases over evolutionary time scales and significantly drops during periods of disturbance. The results suggest a general trend towards both higher integrity and increased stability driven by functional and structural ecosystem coadaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Ecological effects of ionizing radiation on population and ecosystem: a computational model ecosystem study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, Masahiro; Fuma, Shoichi; Ishii, Nobuyuki; Sakashita, Tetsuya; Miyamoto, Kiriko; Takeda, Hiroshi; Kawabata, Zenichiro

    2003-01-01

    Ecosystem is a self-sustaining system of complexity, and their responses to the impacts are synergistic and subjected to the demographic stochasticity of the species, environmental stochasticity and randomness. Environmental fate and effects of radiation has ranged from observable DNA damage of the cell to the fare on tissues, individual, population, community and ecosystems. The quantitative, systematic individual-based model, SIM-COSM was developed to simulate impacts of radiation exposure and other toxicants on an aquatic microbial ecosystem (microcosm). The microcosm consists of heterotroph ciliate protozoa (Tetrahymena thermophila B) as a consumer, autotroph flagellate algae (Euglena gracilis Z) as a producer and saprotroph bacteria (Escherichia coli DH5) as a decomposer. The symbiosis among microbes is self-organized by realizing material cycle and sustained for more than 2 years after inoculation. The system can not afford to lose any one of the microbes to maintain its sustainability. Experimental ecotoxicological tests for (a) gamma radiation, (b) Manganese ions and (c) Gadolinium are summarized. Population dynamics of microbes in Microcosm and its computer simulations by SIM-COSM are shown together in a figure. Population dynamics in Microcosm and SIM-COSM exposed to 500 Gy of gamma-radiation at 50 days after inoculation are shown also in a figure. To take the effects on the interactions between species and environment into account, one option is to put the ecotoxicity tests as experimental micro ecosystem study and theoretical model ecosystem analysis. (M. Suetake)

  15. How to misinterpret photosynthesis measurements and develop incorrect ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, Iain Colin

    2017-04-01

    It is becoming widely accepted than current land ecosystem models (dynamic global vegetation models and land-surface models) rest on shaky foundations and are in need of rebuilding, taking advantage of huge data resources that were hardly conceivable when these models were first developed. It has also become almost a truism that next-generation model development should involve observationalists, experimentalists and modellers working more closely together. What is currently lacking, however, is open discussion of specific problems in the structure of current models, and how they might have arisen. Such a discussion is important if the same mistakes are not to be perpetuated in a new generation of models. I will focus on the central processes governing leaf-level gas exchange, which powers the land carbon and water cycles. I will show that a broad area of confusion exists - as much in the empirical ecophysiological literature as in modelling research - concerning the interpretation of gas-exchange measurements and (especially) their scaling up from the narrow temporal and spatial scales of laboratory measurements to the broad-scale research questions linked to global environmental change. In particular, I will provide examples (drawing on a variety of published and unpublished observations) that illustrate the benefits of taking a "plant-centred" view, showing how consideration of optimal acclimation challenges many (often untstated) assumptions about the relationship of plant and ecosystem processes to environmental variation. (1) Photosynthesis is usually measured at light saturation (implying Rubisco limitation), leading to temperature and CO2 responses that are completely different from those of gross primary production (GPP) under field conditions. (2) The actual rate of electron transport under field conditions depends strongly on the intrinsic quantum efficiency, which is temperature-independent (within a broad range) and unrelated to the maximum electron

  16. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  17. Climate Extremes and Land-Use Change: Effects on Ecosystem Processes and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahn, Michael; Erb, Karlheinz; Hasibeder, Roland; Mayr, Stefan; Niedertscheider, Maria; Oberhuber, Walter; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich; Viovy, Nicolas; Wieser, Gerhard

    2016-04-01

    Extreme climatic events, in particular droughts and heatwaves, have significant impacts on ecosystem carbon and water cycles and a range of related ecosystem services. It is expected that in the coming decades the return intervals and severities of extreme droughts will increase substantially and may result in the passing of thresholds of ecosystem functioning, potentially causing legacy effects, which are so far poorly understood. Observational evidence suggests that different land cover types (forest, grassland) are differently influenced by extreme drought, but there is a lack of knowledge whether and how future, increasingly severe climate extremes will affect their concurrent and lagged responses, as well as land-use decisions determining future shifts in land cover. The ClimLUC project aims to understand how extreme summer drought affects carbon and water dynamics of mountain ecosystems under different land uses, and to analyse implications for ecosystem service provisioning. Overall, we hypothesize that land-use change alters the effects of extreme summer drought on ecosystem processes and the related services, grassland responding more rapidly and strongly but being more resilient to extreme drought than forest. To address the aims and hypotheses, we will 1) test experimentally how (a) a managed, (b) an abandoned mountain grassland and (c) an adjacent subalpine forest respond to a progressive extreme drought and will analyse threshold responses of carbon and water dynamics and their implications for ecosystem services (timber and fodder production, carbon sequestration, water provisioning); 2) quantify carry-over effects of the extreme event on ecosystem processes and services; 3) project and attribute future carbon and water cycle responses to extreme drought and related socio-economic changes, based on a process-based dynamic general vegetation model; 4) analyse the interrelation between land-use changes and the occurrence and severity of past and future

  18. AQUATOX coupled foodweb model for ecosystem risk assessment of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in lake ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling

    2014-01-01

    The AQUATOX model considers the direct toxic effects of chemicals and their indirect effects through foodwebs. For this study, the AQUATOX model was applied to evaluating the ecological risk of Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in a highly anthropogenically disturbed lake-Baiyangdian Lake. Calibration and validation results indicated that the model can adequately describe the dynamics of 18 biological populations. Sensitivity analysis results suggested that the model is highly sensitive to temperature limitation. PBDEs risk estimate results demonstrate that estimated risk for natural ecosystems cannot be fully explained by single species toxicity data alone. The AQUATOX model could provide a good basis in ascertaining ecological protection levels of “chemicals of concern” for aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, AQUATOX can potentially be used to provide necessary information corresponding to early warning and rapid forecasting of pollutant transport and fate in the management of chemicals that put aquatic ecosystems at risk. - Highlights: • AQUATOX model incorporates direct toxic effects and indirect ecological effects. • Ecological risk of PBDEs was assessed by the AQUATOX model. • The model could help determine ecological threshold of “chemicals of concern”. - Capsule abstract: Application of the AQUATOX model to assess the direct and indirect ecological risk of PBDEs

  19. Ecological processes in the cycling of radionuclides within arctic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, W.C.

    1986-01-01

    Worldwide fallout radionuclides in arctic ecosystems was investigated ecologically by circumpolar nations during 1959-80. Several of the radionuclides are isotopes of elements which currently contribute to arctic haze; they thus serve as effective tracers of biogeochemical processes. Investigations demonstrated the effective concentration of several radionuclides, particularly strontium-90 (an alkaline earth metal) and cesium-137 (a light alkali metal) which are chemical analogs of calcium and potassium, two very important stable elements in biotic systems. Transfer of 137 Cs through the lichen-cariboureindeer-man food chain characteristic of circumpolar nations, resulted in body burdens in Inuit that were 20 to 200 times greater than those in human populations of temperature latitudes. Radiation exposures from 90 Sr, 137 Cs and other natural and worldwide fallout radionuclides, were two to three times greater than for most other world populations. These results demonstrate the concentration capabilities of arctic ecosystems for several groups of chemical elements that have counterparts in arctic haze. These elements, therefore, provide the basis for considering the ecological implications of current situations

  20. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes

    2010-06-01

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into quasi

  1. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes [DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark)

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into quasi

  2. Modeling ecosystem processes with variable freshwater inflow to the Caloosahatchee River Estuary, southwest Florida. II. Nutrient loading, submarine light, and seagrasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzzelli, Christopher; Doering, Peter; Wan, Yongshan; Sun, Detong

    2014-12-01

    Short- and long-term changes in estuarine biogeochemical and biological attributes are consequences of variations in both the magnitude and composition of freshwater inputs. A common conceptualization of estuaries depicts nutrient loading from coastal watersheds as the stressor that promotes algal biomass, decreases submarine light penetration, and degrades seagrass habitats. Freshwater inflow depresses salinity while simultaneously introducing colored dissolved organic matter (color or CDOM) which greatly reduces estuarine light penetration. This is especially true for sub-tropical estuaries. This study applied a model of the Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE) in southwest Florida to explore the relationships between freshwater inflow, nutrient loading, submarine light, and seagrass survival. In two independent model series, the loading of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIN and DIP) was reduced by 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% relative to the base model case from 2002 to 2009 (2922 days). While external nutrient loads were reduced by lowering inflow (Q0) in the first series (Q0 series), reductions were accomplished by decreasing the incoming concentrations of DIN and DIP in the second series (NP Series). The model also was used to explore the partitioning of submarine light extinction due to chlorophyll a, CDOM, and turbidity. Results suggested that attempting to control nutrient loading by decreasing freshwater inflow could have minor effects on water column concentrations but greatly influence submarine light and seagrass biomass. This is because of the relative importance of Q0 to salinity and submarine light. In general, light penetration and seagrass biomass decreased with increased inflow and CDOM. Increased chlorophyll a did account for more submarine light extinction in the lower estuary. The model output was used to help identify desirable levels of inflow, nutrient loading, water quality, salinity, and submarine light for seagrass in the lower CRE

  3. Innovation ecosystem model for commercialization of research results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlăduţ Gabriel

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Innovation means Creativity and Added value recognise by the market. The first step in creating a sustainable commercialization of research results, Technological Transfer – TT mechanism, on one hand is to define the “technology” which will be transferred and on other hand to define the context in which the TT mechanism work, the ecosystem. The focus must be set on technology as an entity, not as a science or a study of the practical industrial arts and certainly not any specific applied science. The transfer object, the technology, must rely on a subjectively determined but specifiable set of processes and products. Focusing on the product is not sufficient to the transfer and diffusion of technology. It is not merely the product that is transferred but also knowledge of its use and application. The innovation ecosystem model brings together new companies, experienced business leaders, researchers, government officials, established technology companies, and investors. This environment provides those new companies with a wealth of technical expertise, business experience, and access to capital that supports innovation in the early stages of growth.

  4. Development of the BIOME-BGC model for the simulation of managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Fangjie; Li, Pingheng; Zhou, Guomo; Du, Huaqiang; Xu, Xiaojun; Shi, Yongjun; Mo, Lufeng; Zhou, Yufeng; Tu, Guoqing

    2016-05-01

    Numerical models are the most appropriate instrument for the analysis of the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based model BIOME-BGC is widely used in simulation of carbon balance within vegetation, litter and soil of unmanaged ecosystems. For Moso bamboo forests, however, simulations with BIOME-BGC are inaccurate in terms of the growing season and the carbon allocation, due to the oversimplified representation of phenology. Our aim was to improve the applicability of BIOME-BGC for managed Moso bamboo forest ecosystem by implementing several new modules, including phenology, carbon allocation, and management. Instead of the simple phenology and carbon allocation representations in the original version, a periodic Moso bamboo phenology and carbon allocation module was implemented, which can handle the processes of Moso bamboo shooting and high growth during "on-year" and "off-year". Four management modules (digging bamboo shoots, selective cutting, obtruncation, fertilization) were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. The improved model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance measurement data collected at a managed Moso bamboo forest site (Anji) during 2011-2013 years. As a result of these developments and calibrations, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Regarding the measured and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, net ecosystem exchange), relative errors were decreased by 42.23%, 103.02% and 18.67%, respectively. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Cultural ecosystem services of mountain regions: Modelling the aesthetic value

    OpenAIRE

    Schirpke, Uta; Timmermann, Florian; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Tasser, Erich

    2016-01-01

    Mountain regions meet an increasing demand for pleasant landscapes, offering many cultural ecosystem services to both their residents and tourists. As a result of global change, land managers and policy makers are faced with changes to this landscape and need efficient evaluation techniques to assess cultural ecosystem services. This study provides a spatially explicit modelling approach to estimating aesthetic landscape values by relating spatial landscape patterns to human perceptions via a...

  6. Importance of neutral processes varies in time and space: Evidence from dryland stream ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoli Dong

    Full Text Available Many ecosystems experience strong temporal variability in environmental conditions; yet, a clear picture of how niche and neutral processes operate to determine community assembly in temporally variable systems remains elusive. In this study, we constructed neutral metacommunity models to assess the relative importance of neutral processes in a spatially and temporally variable ecosystem. We analyzed macroinvertebrate community data spanning multiple seasons and years from 20 sites in a Sonoran Desert river network in Arizona. The model goodness-of-fit was used to infer the importance of neutral processes. Averaging over eight stream flow conditions across three years, we found that neutral processes were more important in perennial streams than in non-perennial streams (intermittent and ephemeral streams. Averaging across perennial and non-perennial streams, we found that neutral processes were more important during very high flow and in low flow periods; whereas, at very low flows, the relative importance of neutral processes varied greatly. These findings were robust to the choice of model parameter values. Our study suggested that the net effect of disturbance on the relative importance of niche and neutral processes in community assembly varies non-monotonically with the severity of disturbance. In contrast to the prevailing view that disturbance promotes niche processes, we found that neutral processes could become more important when the severity of disturbance is beyond a certain threshold such that all organisms are adversely affected regardless of their biological traits and strategies.

  7. Modelling the ecosystem effects of nitrogen deposition: Model of Ecosystem Retention and Loss of Inorganic Nitrogen (MERLIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. J. Cosby

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available A catchment-scale mass-balance model of linked carbon and nitrogen cycling in ecosystems has been developed for simulating leaching losses of inorganic nitrogen. The model (MERLIN considers linked biotic and abiotic processes affecting the cycling and storage of nitrogen. The model is aggregated in space and time and contains compartments intended to be observable and/or interpretable at the plot or catchment scale. The structure of the model includes the inorganic soil, a plant compartment and two soil organic compartments. Fluxes in and out of the ecosystem and between compartments are regulated by atmospheric deposition, hydrological discharge, plant uptake, litter production, wood production, microbial immobilization, mineralization, nitrification, and denitrification. Nitrogen fluxes are controlled by carbon productivity, the C:N ratios of organic compartments and inorganic nitrogen in soil solution. Inputs required are: 1 temporal sequences of carbon fluxes and pools- 2 time series of hydrological discharge through the soils, 3 historical and current external sources of inorganic nitrogen; 4 current amounts of nitrogen in the plant and soil organic compartments; 5 constants specifying the nitrogen uptake and immobilization characteristics of the plant and soil organic compartments; and 6 soil characteristics such as depth, porosity, bulk density, and anion/cation exchange constants. Outputs include: 1 concentrations and fluxes of NO3 and NH4 in soil solution and runoff; 2 total nitrogen contents of the organic and inorganic compartments; 3 C:N ratios of the aggregated plant and soil organic compartments; and 4 rates of nitrogen uptake and immobilization and nitrogen mineralization. The behaviour of the model is assessed for a combination of land-use change and nitrogen deposition scenarios in a series of speculative simulations. The results of the simulations are in broad agreement with observed and hypothesized behaviour of nitrogen

  8. Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS - the ecosystem module

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaromir Jakacki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the ecohydrodynamic predictive model - the ecosystem module - for assessing the state of the Baltic marine environment and the Baltic ecosystem. The Baltic Sea model 3D CEMBS (the Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea is based on the Community Earth System Model, which was adopted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice-ecosystem model. The 3D CEMBS model uses: (i hydrodynamic equations describing water movement, (ii thermodynamic equations, (iii equations describing the concentration distribution of chemical variables in the sea, and (iv equations describing the exchange of matter between individual groups of organisms and their environment that make allowance for the kinetics of biochemical processes. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main components: three classes of phytoplankton (small phytoplankton, large phytoplankton represented mainly by diatoms and summer species, mostly cyanobacteria expressed in units of carbon and chlorophyll a as separate variables, zooplankton, pelagic detritus, dissolved oxygen and nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate. In operational mode, 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM are used. All model forecasts are available on the website http://deep.iopan.gda.pl/CEMBaltic/new_lay/index.php. The results presented in this paper show that the 3D CEMBS model is operating correctly.

  9. Spatial Distribution of Hydrologic Ecosystem Service Estimates: Comparing Two Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennedy-Frank, P. J.; Ghile, Y.; Gorelick, S.; Logsdon, R. A.; Chaubey, I.; Ziv, G.

    2014-12-01

    We compare estimates of the spatial distribution of water quantity provided (annual water yield) from two ecohydrologic models: the widely-used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the much simpler water models from the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) toolbox. These two models differ significantly in terms of complexity, timescale of operation, effort, and data required for calibration, and so are often used in different management contexts. We compare two study sites in the US: the Wildcat Creek Watershed (2083 km2) in Indiana, a largely agricultural watershed in a cold aseasonal climate, and the Upper Upatoi Creek Watershed (876 km2) in Georgia, a mostly forested watershed in a temperate aseasonal climate. We evaluate (1) quantitative estimates of water yield to explore how well each model represents this process, and (2) ranked estimates of water yield to indicate how useful the models are for management purposes where other social and financial factors may play significant roles. The SWAT and InVEST models provide very similar estimates of the water yield of individual subbasins in the Wildcat Creek Watershed (Pearson r = 0.92, slope = 0.89), and a similar ranking of the relative water yield of those subbasins (Spearman r = 0.86). However, the two models provide relatively different estimates of the water yield of individual subbasins in the Upper Upatoi Watershed (Pearson r = 0.25, slope = 0.14), and very different ranking of the relative water yield of those subbasins (Spearman r = -0.10). The Upper Upatoi watershed has a significant baseflow contribution due to its sandy, well-drained soils. InVEST's simple seasonality terms, which assume no change in storage over the time of the model run, may not accurately estimate water yield processes when baseflow provides such a strong contribution. Our results suggest that InVEST users take care in situations where storage changes are significant.

  10. Optimal foraging in marine ecosystem models: selectivity, profitability and switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visser, Andre W.; Fiksen, Ø.

    2013-01-01

    ecological mechanics and evolutionary logic as a solution to diet selection in ecosystem models. When a predator can consume a range of prey items it has to choose which foraging mode to use, which prey to ignore and which ones to pursue, and animals are known to be particularly skilled in adapting...... to the preference functions commonly used in models today. Indeed, depending on prey class resolution, optimal foraging can yield feeding rates that are considerably different from the ‘switching functions’ often applied in marine ecosystem models. Dietary inclusion is dictated by two optimality choices: 1...... by letting predators maximize energy intake or more properly, some measure of fitness where predation risk and cost are also included. An optimal foraging or fitness maximizing approach will give marine ecosystem models a sound principle to determine trophic interactions...

  11. Trophic dynamics of a simple model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Graham; Fortier-Dubois, Étienne

    2017-09-13

    We have constructed a model of community dynamics that is simple enough to enumerate all possible food webs, yet complex enough to represent a wide range of ecological processes. We use the transition matrix to predict the outcome of succession and then investigate how the transition probabilities are governed by resource supply and immigration. Low-input regimes lead to simple communities whereas trophically complex communities develop when there is an adequate supply of both resources and immigrants. Our interpretation of trophic dynamics in complex communities hinges on a new principle of mutual replenishment, defined as the reciprocal alternation of state in a pair of communities linked by the invasion and extinction of a shared species. Such neutral couples are the outcome of succession under local dispersal and imply that food webs will often be made up of suites of trophically equivalent species. When immigrants arrive from an external pool of fixed composition a similar principle predicts a dynamic core of webs constituting a neutral interchange network, although communities may express an extensive range of other webs whose membership is only in part predictable. The food web is not in general predictable from whole-community properties such as productivity or stability, although it may profoundly influence these properties. © 2017 The Author(s).

  12. Soil Heat Flow. Physical Processes in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems, Transport Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, James R.

    These materials were designed to be used by life science students for instruction in the application of physical theory to ecosystem operation. Most modules contain computer programs which are built around a particular application of a physical process. Soil heat flow and the resulting soil temperature distributions have ecological consequences…

  13. A general equilibrium model of ecosystem services in a river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Warziniack

    2014-01-01

    This study builds a general equilibrium model of ecosystem services, with sectors of the economy competing for use of the environment. The model recognizes that production processes in the real world require a combination of natural and human inputs, and understanding the value of these inputs and their competing uses is necessary when considering policies of resource...

  14. Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

  15. Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun Yang

    2011-01-01

    Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ‘‘...

  16. Modeling carbon and nitrogen biogeochemistry in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changsheng Li; Carl Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve McNulty; Klaus Butterbach-Bahl

    2005-01-01

    A forest biogeochemical model, Forest-DNDC, was developed to quantify carbon sequestration in and trace gas emissions from forest ecosystems. Forest-DNDC was constructed by integrating two existing moels, PnET and DNDC, with several new features including nitrification, forest litter layer, soil freezing and thawing etc, PnET is a forest physiological model predicting...

  17. Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton S. Wright

    2013-01-01

    Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

  18. A community-based framework for aquatic ecosystem models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trolle, D.; Hamilton, D.P.; Hipsey, M.R.; Bolding, K.; Bruggeman, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Janse, J.H.; Nielsen, A.; Jeppesen, E.; Elliott, J.A.; Makler-Pick, V.; Petzoldt, T.; Rinke, K.; Flindt, M.R.; Arhonditsis, G.B.; Gal, G.; Bjerring, R.; Tominaga, K.; Hoen, 't J.; Downing, A.S.; Marques, D.M.; Fragoso, C.R.; Sondergaard, M.; Hanson, P.C.

    2012-01-01

    Here, we communicate a point of departure in the development of aquatic ecosystem models, namely a new community-based framework, which supports an enhanced and transparent union between the collective expertise that exists in the communities of traditional ecologists and model developers. Through a

  19. Assessment of Urban Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Weight Extension Decision Model in Urban Agglomeration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban ecosystem health evaluation can assist in sustainable ecological management at a regional level. This study examined urban agglomeration ecosystem health in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River with entropy weight and extension theories. The model overcomes information omissions and subjectivity problems in the evaluation process of urban ecosystem health. Results showed that human capital and education, economic development level as well as urban infrastructure have a significant effect on the health states of urban agglomerations. The health status of the urban agglomeration’s ecosystem was not optimistic in 2013. The majority of the cities were unhealthy or verging on unhealthy, accounting for 64.52% of the total number of cities in the urban agglomeration. The regional differences of the 31 cities’ ecosystem health are significant. The cause originated from an imbalance in economic development and the policy guidance of city development. It is necessary to speed up the integration process to promote coordinated regional development. The present study will aid us in understanding and advancing the health situation of the urban ecosystem in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and will provide an efficient urban ecosystem health evaluation method that can be used in other areas.

  20. Modelling the growth of Populus species using Ecosystem Demography (ED) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.

    2010-12-01

    Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.

  1. Evaluating the governance model of hardware-dependent software ecosystems - a case study of the axis ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per

    2014-01-01

    specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) software ecosystem. We conduct an exploratory case study collecting data from observations and interviews...... and apply the governance model for prevention and improvement of the software ecosystem health proposed by Jansen and Cusumano. Our results reveal that although the governance actions do not address the majority of their governance model, the ADP ecosystem is considered a growing ecosystem providing...

  2. Use of hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling for ecosystem restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obeysekera, J.; Kuebler, L.; Ahmed, S.; Chang, M.-L.; Engel, V.; Langevin, C.; Swain, E.; Wan, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and implementation of unprecedented projects for restoring the greater Everglades ecosystem are underway and the hydrologic and hydrodynamic modeling of restoration alternatives has become essential for success of restoration efforts. In view of the complex nature of the South Florida water resources system, regional-scale (system-wide) hydrologic models have been developed and used extensively for the development of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. In addition, numerous subregional-scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic models have been developed and are being used for evaluating project-scale water management plans associated with urban, agricultural, and inland costal ecosystems. The authors provide a comprehensive summary of models of all scales, as well as the next generation models under development to meet the future needs of ecosystem restoration efforts in South Florida. The multiagency efforts to develop and apply models have allowed the agencies to understand the complex hydrologic interactions, quantify appropriate performance measures, and use new technologies in simulation algorithms, software development, and GIS/database techniques to meet the future modeling needs of the ecosystem restoration programs. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  3. Current ecosystem processes in steppe near Lake Baikal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanteeva, Julia

    2015-04-01

    The steppes and forest steppes complexes of Priol'khonie at the Lake Baikal (southern Siberia, Russia) were studied in this research. Recreational activity has a significant impact on the Priol'khonie region. During soviet time this area was actively used for agriculture. Nowadays, this territory is the part of Pribaikalskyi National Park and special protection is needed. As the landscapes satisfy different human demands there are many land-management conflicts. The specific climate and soil conditions and human activity lead to erosion processes on study area. Sediment loads are transferred into the Lake Baikal and cause water pollution. Consequently, vegetation cover and phytomass play an important role for regulating hydrological processes in the ecosystems. The process of phytomass formation and its proactive role playing on sedimentation and mitigate silt detaching by rill and inter-rill erosion are considered in the research as important indicators of the ecosystem functions for steppe landscapes. These indicators were studied for the different land cover types identified on the area because the study area has a large variety of steppe and forest steppe complexes, differing in the form of relief, soil types, vegetation species composition and degree of land degradation. The fieldwork was conducted in the study area in the July and August of 2013. Thirty-two experimental sites (10 x 10 m) which characterized different types of ecosystem were established. The level of landscape degradation was estimated. The method of clipping was used for the valuation of above-ground herbaceous phytomass. The phytomass of tree stands was calculated using the volume-conversion rates for forest-steppe complexes. For the quantification of transferred silt by inter-rill erosion in different conditions (vegetation, slope, soil type, anthropogenic load) a portable rainfall simulator was created with taking into account the characteristics of the study area. The aboveground

  4. A comparison of tools for modeling freshwater ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigerstol, Kari L; Aukema, Juliann E

    2011-10-01

    Interest in ecosystem services has grown tremendously among a wide range of sectors, including government agencies, NGO's and the business community. Ecosystem services entailing freshwater (e.g. flood control, the provision of hydropower, and water supply), as well as carbon storage and sequestration, have received the greatest attention in both scientific and on-the-ground applications. Given the newness of the field and the variety of tools for predicting water-based services, it is difficult to know which tools to use for different questions. There are two types of freshwater-related tools--traditional hydrologic tools and newer ecosystem services tools. Here we review two of the most prominent tools of each type and their possible applications. In particular, we compare the data requirements, ease of use, questions addressed, and interpretability of results among the models. We discuss the strengths, challenges and most appropriate applications of the different models. Traditional hydrological tools provide more detail whereas ecosystem services tools tend to be more accessible to non-experts and can provide a good general picture of these ecosystem services. We also suggest gaps in the modeling toolbox that would provide the greatest advances by improving existing tools. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Ocean-atmosphere pollutant circulation processes: The Heligoland Bight ecosystem (PRISMA). 2. interim report (1991)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The PRISMA BMFT project is an important stage on the way to a comprehensive knowledge of the impacts of pollutants on the North Sea/Heligoland Bight ecosystem. The overall project is dedicated to the development, verification and application of a complex shelf-sea model which provides qualitative and quantitative data about the causal interactions between the basic atmospheric conditions, the hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of the water, the chemical reactons in the air, in the water and the sediments, and the activity of organisms. The model comprises a compact set of formulae, process formulations, initial and marginal conditions and empirical parameters which serves to describe the origin, transport, reactions and final deposition of pollutants in the North Sea, helps to analyze and elucidate the present condition of the ecosystem and its spatial and temporal variability, and provides forecasts in accordance with the changing natural and anthropogenic environmental conditions. (orig.) [de

  6. Insights into the Processing of Carbon by Early Microbial Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    DesMarais, D.; Bebout, B.; Carpenter, S.; Discipulo, S.; Londry, K.; Habicht, K.; Turk, K.

    2003-01-01

    Interactions between Earth and the biosphere that were crucial for early biological evolution also influenced substantially the processes that circulate C between its reservoirs in the atmosphere, ocean, crust and mantle. The C-13 C-12 values of crustal carbonates and organics have recorded changes both in biological discrimination and in the relative rates of burial of organics and carbonates. A full interpretation of these patterns needs further isotopic studies of microbial ecosystems and individual anaerobes. Thus we measured carbon isotope discrimination during autotrophic and heterotrophic growth of pure cultures of sulfate-reducing bacteria and archaea (SRB and SRA). Discrimination during CO2 assimilation is significantly larger than during heterotrophic growth on lactate or acetate. SRB grown lithoautotrophically consumed less than 3% of available CO2 and exhibited substantial discrimination, as follows: Desulfobacterium autotrophicum (alpha 1.0100 to 1.0123), Desulfobacter hydrogenophilus (alpha = 0.0138), and Desulfotomuculum acetoxidans (alpha = 1.0310). Mixotrophic growth of Desulfovibrio desulfuricans on acetate and CO2 resulted in biomass with delta C-13 composition intermediate to that of the substrates. We have recently extended these experiments to include the thermophilic SRA Archeoglobus spp. Ecological forces also influence isotopic discrimination. Accordingly, we quantified the flow of C and other constituents in modern marine cyanobacterial mats, whose ancestry extends back billions of years. Such ecosystem processes shaped the biosignatures that entered sediments and atmospheres. At Guerrero Negro, BCS, Mexico, we examined mats dominated by Microcoleus (subtidal) and Lyngbya (intertidal to supratidal) cyanobacteria. During 24 hour cycles, we observed the exchange of O2 and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) between mats and the overlying water. Microcoleus mats assimilated near-equal amounts of DIC during the day as they released at night, but

  7. A hierarchical analysis of terrestrial ecosystem model Biome-BGC: Equilibrium analysis and model calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Wang, Weile [ORNL; Law, Beverly E. [Oregon State University; Nemani, Ramakrishna R [NASA Ames Research Center

    2009-01-01

    The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.

  8. Damped trophic cascades driven by fishing in model marine ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Pedersen, Martin

    2010-01-01

    The largest perturbation on upper trophic levels of many marine ecosystems stems from fishing. The reaction of the ecosystem goes beyond the trophic levels directly targeted by the fishery. This reaction has been described either as a change in slope of the overall size spectrum or as a trophic...... cascade triggered by the removal of top predators. Here we use a novel size- and trait-based model to explore how marine ecosystems might react to perturbations from different types of fishing pressure. The model explicitly resolves the whole life history of fish, from larvae to adults. The results show...... that fishing does not change the overall slope of the size spectrum, but depletes the largest individuals and induces trophic cascades. A trophic cascade can propagate both up and down in trophic levels driven by a combination of changes in predation mortality and food limitation. The cascade is damped...

  9. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

  10. A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shevliakova, E.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    1994-01-01

    Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect this approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold

  11. Forest Fragmentation and Selective Logging Have Inconsistent Effects on Multiple Animal-Mediated Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleuning, Matthias; Farwig, Nina; Peters, Marcell K.; Bergsdorf, Thomas; Bleher, Bärbel; Brandl, Roland; Dalitz, Helmut; Fischer, Georg; Freund, Wolfram; Gikungu, Mary W.; Hagen, Melanie; Garcia, Francisco Hita; Kagezi, Godfrey H.; Kaib, Manfred; Kraemer, Manfred; Lung, Tobias; Schaab, Gertrud; Templin, Mathias; Uster, Dana; Wägele, J. Wolfgang; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2011-01-01

    Forest fragmentation and selective logging are two main drivers of global environmental change and modify biodiversity and environmental conditions in many tropical forests. The consequences of these changes for the functioning of tropical forest ecosystems have rarely been explored in a comprehensive approach. In a Kenyan rainforest, we studied six animal-mediated ecosystem processes and recorded species richness and community composition of all animal taxa involved in these processes. We used linear models and a formal meta-analysis to test whether forest fragmentation and selective logging affected ecosystem processes and biodiversity and used structural equation models to disentangle direct from biodiversity-related indirect effects of human disturbance on multiple ecosystem processes. Fragmentation increased decomposition and reduced antbird predation, while selective logging consistently increased pollination, seed dispersal and army-ant raiding. Fragmentation modified species richness or community composition of five taxa, whereas selective logging did not affect any component of biodiversity. Changes in the abundance of functionally important species were related to lower predation by antbirds and higher decomposition rates in small forest fragments. The positive effects of selective logging on bee pollination, bird seed dispersal and army-ant raiding were direct, i.e. not related to changes in biodiversity, and were probably due to behavioural changes of these highly mobile animal taxa. We conclude that animal-mediated ecosystem processes respond in distinct ways to different types of human disturbance in Kakamega Forest. Our findings suggest that forest fragmentation affects ecosystem processes indirectly by changes in biodiversity, whereas selective logging influences processes directly by modifying local environmental conditions and resource distributions. The positive to neutral effects of selective logging on ecosystem processes show that the

  12. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumblad, Linda [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Systems Ecology; Kautsky, Ulrik [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2004-09-01

    In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment.

  13. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and point source released radionuclides to an aquatic ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, Linda

    2004-09-01

    In this report three ecosystem models are described in terms of structure, initial data, and results. All models are dynamic, mass-balanced and describe the transport and fate of elements in an open aquatic ecosystem. The models are based on ecologically sound principles, provide model results with high resolution and transparency, and are constrained by the nutrient dynamics of the ecosystem itself. The processes driving the transport in all the models are both the biological processes such as primary production, consumption, respiration and excretion, and abiotic e.g. water exchange and air-sea exchange. The first model, the CNP-model, describes the distribution and fluxes of carbon and nutrients for the coastal ecosystem off Forsmark. The second model, the C-14 model, is an extension of the CNP-model and describes the transport and distribution of hypothetically released C-14 from the underground repository SFR-1 to the ecosystem above. The third model, the RN-model, is a generic radionuclide flow model that models the transport and distribution of radionuclides other than C-14 hypothetically discharged to the ecosystem. The model also analyses the importance of some radionuclide specific mechanisms for the radionuclide flow. The generic radionuclide model is also based on the CNP-model, but has radionuclide specific mechanisms connected to each compartment

  14. A process-based framework for soil ecosystem services study and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Changhong; Liu, Huifang; Wang, Shuai

    2018-06-15

    Soil provides various indispensable ecosystem services for human society. Soil's complex structure and property makes the soil ecological processes complicated and brings about tough challenges for soil ecosystem services study. Most of the current frameworks on soil services focus exclusively on services per se, neglecting the links and underlying ecological mechanisms. This article put forward a framework on soil services by stressing the underlying soil mechanisms and processes, which includes: 1) analyzing soil natural capital stock based on soil structure and property, 2) disentangling the underlying complex links and soil processes, 3) soil services valuation based on field investigation and spatial explicit models, and 4) enacting soil management strategy based on soil services and their driving factors. By application of this framework, we assessed the soil services of sediment retention, water yield, and grain production in the Upper-reach Fenhe Watershed. Based on the ecosystem services and human driving factors, the whole watershed was clustered into five groups: 1) municipal area, 2) typical coal mining area, 3) traditional farming area, 4) unsustainable urbanizing area, and 5) ecological conservation area. Management strategies on soils were made according to the clustering based soil services and human activities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafyllou, G.; Yao, F.; Petihakis, G.; Tsiaras, K. P.; Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

  16. Exploring the Red Sea seasonal ecosystem functioning using a three-dimensional biophysical model

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafyllou, G.

    2014-03-01

    The Red Sea exhibits complex hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamics, which vary both in time and space. These dynamics have been explored through the development and application of a 3-D ecosystem model. The simulation system comprises two off-line coupled submodels: the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) and the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM), both adapted for the Red Sea. The results from an annual simulation under climatological forcing are presented. Simulation results are in good agreement with satellite and in situ data illustrating the role of the physical processes in determining the evolution and variability of the Red Sea ecosystem. The model was able to reproduce the main features of the Red Sea ecosystem functioning, including the exchange with the Gulf of Aden, which is a major driving mechanism for the whole Red Sea ecosystem and the winter overturning taking place in the north. Some model limitations, mainly related to the dynamics of the extended reef system located in the southern part of the Red Sea, which is not currently represented in the model, still need to be addressed.

  17. Evaluating the Governance Model of Hardware-Dependent Software Ecosystems – A Case Study of the Axis Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Wnuk, Krzysztof; Manikas, Konstantinos; Runeson, Per; Matilda, Lantz; Oskar, Weijden; Munir, Hussan

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem governance becomes gradually more relevant for a set of companies or actors characterized by symbiotic relations evolved on the top of a technological platform, i.e. a software ecosystem. In this study, we focus on the governance of a hardware-dependent software ecosystem. More specifically, we evaluate the governance model applied by Axis, a network video and surveillance camera producer, that is the platform owner and orchestrator of the Application Development Partner (ADP) softw...

  18. Convergence and Divergence in a Multi-Model Ensemble of Terrestrial Ecosystem Models in North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dungan, J. L.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Michaelis, A.; Milesi, C.; Ichii, K.; Nemani, R. R.

    2009-12-01

    In support of NACP, we are conducting an ensemble modeling exercise using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) to evaluate uncertainties among ecosystem models, satellite datasets, and in-situ measurements. The models used in the experiment include public-domain versions of Biome-BGC, LPJ, TOPS-BGC, and CASA, driven by a consistent set of climate fields for North America at 8km resolution and daily/monthly time steps over the period of 1982-2006. The reference datasets include MODIS Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Primary Production (NPP) products, Fluxnet measurements, and other observational data. The simulation results and the reference datasets are consistently processed and systematically compared in the climate (temperature-precipitation) space; in particular, an alternative to the Taylor diagram is developed to facilitate model-data intercomparisons in multi-dimensional space. The key findings of this study indicate that: the simulated GPP/NPP fluxes are in general agreement with observations over forests, but are biased low (underestimated) over non-forest types; large uncertainties of biomass and soil carbon stocks are found among the models (and reference datasets), often induced by seemingly “small” differences in model parameters and implementation details; the simulated Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) mainly responds to non-respiratory disturbances (e.g. fire) in the models and therefore is difficult to compare with flux data; and the seasonality and interannual variability of NEP varies significantly among models and reference datasets. These findings highlight the problem inherent in relying on only one modeling approach to map surface carbon fluxes and emphasize the pressing necessity of expanded and enhanced monitoring systems to narrow critical structural and parametrical uncertainties among ecosystem models.

  19. Model of a coral reef ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Marlin J.; Grigg, Richard W.

    1984-08-01

    The ECOPATH model for French Frigate Shoals estimates the benthic plant production (net primary production in kg wet weight) required to support the atoll food chain. In this section we estimate the benthic net primary production and net community production of the atoll based on metabolism studies of reef flat, knolls, and lagoon communities at French Frigate Shoals Hawaii. Community metabolism was measured during winter and summer. The reef communities at French Frigate Shoals exhibited patterns and rates of organic carbon production and calcification similar to other reefs in the world. The estimate of net primary production is 6.1·106 kg wet weight km-2 year-1±50%, a value remarkably close to the estimate by the ECOPATH model of 4.3·106 kg wet weight km-2 year-1. Our estimate of net community production or the amount of carbon not consumed by the benthos was high; approximately 15% of the net primary production. Model results indicate that about 5% of net primary production is passed up the food chain to mobile predators. This suggests about 10% of net primary production (˜6% of gross primary production) may be permanently lost to the system via sediment burial or export offshore.

  20. Modeling of Heavy Metal Transformation in Soil Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinichenko, Kira; Nikovskaya, Galina N.

    2017-04-01

    The intensification of industrial activity leads to an increase in heavy metals pollution of soils. In our opinion, sludge from biological treatment of municipal waste water, stabilized under aerobic-anaerobic conditions (commonly known as biosolid), may be considered as concentrate of natural soil. In their chemical, physical and chemical and biological properties these systems are similar gel-like nanocomposites. These contain microorganisms, humic substances, clay, clusters of nanoparticles of heavy metal compounds, and so on involved into heteropolysaccharides matrix. It is known that microorganisms play an important role in the transformation of different nature substances in soil and its health maintenance. The regularities of transformation of heavy metal compounds in soil ecosystem were studied at the model of biosolid. At biosolid swelling its structure changing (gel-sol transition, weakening of coagulation contacts between metal containing nanoparticles, microbial cells and metabolites, loosening and even destroying of the nanocomposite structure) can occur [1, 2]. The promotion of the sludge heterotrophic microbial activities leads to solubilization of heavy metal compounds in the system. The microbiological process can be realized in alcaligeneous or acidogeneous regimes in dependence on the type of carbon source and followed by the synthesis of metabolites with the properties of flocculants and heavy metals extragents [3]. In this case the heavy metals solubilization (bioleaching) in the form of nanoparticles of hydroxycarbonate complexes or water soluble complexes with oxycarbonic acids is observed. Under the action of biosolid microorganisms the heavy metals-oxycarbonic acids complexes can be transformed (catabolised) into nano-sizing heavy metals- hydroxycarbonates complexes. These ecologically friendly complexes and microbial heteropolysaccharides are able to interact with soil colloids, stay in the top soil profile, and improve soil structure due

  1. Biomass is the main driver of changes in ecosystem process rates during tropical forest succession

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lohbeck, M.W.M.; Poorter, L.; Martinez-Ramos, M.; Bongers, F.

    2015-01-01

    Over half of the world's forests are disturbed, and the rate at which ecosystem processes recover after disturbance is important for the services these forests can provide. We analyze the drivers' underlying changes in rates of key ecosystem processes (biomass productivity, litter productivity,

  2. An experiment framework to identify community functional components driving ecosystem processes and services delivery.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dias, A.; Berg, M.P.; de Bello, F.; van Oosten, A.R.; Bila, K.; Moretti, M.

    2013-01-01

    There is a growing consensus that the distribution of species trait values in a community can greatly determine ecosystem processes and services delivery. Two distinct components of community trait composition are hypothesized to chiefly affect ecosystem processes: (i) the average trait value of the

  3. Ecosystem services sustainability in the Mediterranean Sea: assessment of status and trends using multiple modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liquete, Camino; Piroddi, Chiara; Macías, Diego; Druon, Jean-Noël; Zulian, Grazia

    2016-09-01

    Mediterranean ecosystems support important processes and functions that bring direct benefits to human society. Yet, marine ecosystem services are usually overlooked due to the challenges in identifying and quantifying them. This paper proposes the application of several biophysical and ecosystem modelling approaches to assess spatially and temporally the sustainable use and supply of selected marine ecosystem services. Such services include food provision, water purification, coastal protection, lifecycle maintenance and recreation, focusing on the Mediterranean region. Overall, our study found a higher number of decreasing than increasing trends in the natural capacity of the ecosystems to provide marine and coastal services, while in contrast the opposite was observed to be true for the realised flow of services to humans. Such a study paves the way towards an effective support for Blue Growth and the European maritime policies, although little attention is paid to the quantification of marine ecosystem services in this context. We identify a key challenge of integrating biophysical and socio-economic models as a necessary step to further this research.

  4. Linking hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in African papyrus wetlands using a Bayesian Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dam, A.; Gettel, G. M.; Kipkemboi, J.; Rahman, M. M.

    2011-12-01

    Papyrus wetlands in East Africa provide ecosystem services supporting the livelihoods of millions but are rapidly degrading due to economic development. For ecosystem conservation, an integrated understanding of the natural and social processes driving ecosystem change is needed. This research focuses on integrating the causal relationships between hydrology, ecosystem function, and livelihood sustainability in Nyando wetland, western Kenya. Livelihood sustainability is based on ecosystem services that include plant and animal harvest for building material and food, conversion of wetlands to crop and grazing land, water supply, and water quality regulation. Specific objectives were: to integrate studies of hydrology, ecology, and livelihood activities using a Bayesian Network (BN) model and include stakeholder involvement in model development. The BN model (Netica 4.16) had 35 nodes with seven decision nodes describing demography, economy, papyrus market, and rainfall, and two target nodes describing ecosystem function (defined by groundwater recharge, nutrient and sediment retention, and biodiversity) and livelihood sustainability (drinking water supply, crop production, livestock production, and papyrus yield). The conditional probability tables were populated using results of ecohydrological and socio-economic field work and consultations with stakeholders. The model was evaluated for an average year with decision node probabilities set according to data from research, expert opinion, and stakeholders' views. Then, scenarios for dry and wet seasons and for economic development (low population growth and unemployment) and policy development (more awareness of wetland value) were evaluated. In an average year, the probability for maintaining a "good" level of sediment and nutrient retention functions, groundwater recharge, and biodiversity was about 60%. ("Good" is defined by expert opinion based on ongoing field research.) In the dry season, the probability was

  5. Semantic Business Process Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Markovic, Ivan

    2010-01-01

    This book presents a process-oriented business modeling framework based on semantic technologies. The framework consists of modeling languages, methods, and tools that allow for semantic modeling of business motivation, business policies and rules, and business processes. Quality of the proposed modeling framework is evaluated based on the modeling content of SAP Solution Composer and several real-world business scenarios.

  6. Puget Sound ocean acidification model outputs - Modeling the impacts of ocean acidification on ecosystems and populations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NWFSC OA team will model the effects of ocean acidification on regional marine species and ecosystems using food web models, life-cycle models, and bioenvelope...

  7. An experimental framework to identify community functional components driving ecosystem processes and services delivery

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dias, A. T. C.; Berg, M. P.; de Bello, Francesco; Oosten, A. R. V.; Bílá, Karolína; Morreti, M.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 101, č. 1 (2013), s. 29-37 ISSN 0022-0477 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP505/12/1296 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:67179843 Keywords : CWM * ecosystem functioning * ecosystem processes * ecosystem services * functional divergence * functional diversity * functional evenness * functional richness * mass ratio hypothesis * Rao index Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour; EF - Botanics (BU-J) Impact factor: 5.694, year: 2013

  8. Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

    2017-04-01

    Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

  9. Making eco logic and models work : An integrative approach to lake ecosystem modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Jan Jurjen

    2016-01-01

    Dynamical ecosystem models are important tools that can help ecologists understand complex systems, and turn understanding into predictions of how these systems respond to external changes. This thesis revolves around PCLake, an integrated ecosystem model of shallow lakes that is used by both

  10. Ecosystem Model Performance at Wetlands: Results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulman, B. N.; Desai, A. R.; Schroeder, N. M.; NACP Site Synthesis Participants

    2011-12-01

    Northern peatlands contain a significant fraction of the global carbon pool, and their responses to hydrological change are likely to be important factors in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global-scale carbon cycle modeling studies typically use general ecosystem models with coarse spatial resolution, often without peatland-specific processes. Here, seven ecosystem models were used to simulate CO2 fluxes at three field sites in Canada and the northern United States, including two nutrient-rich fens and one nutrient-poor, sphagnum-dominated bog, from 2002-2006. Flux residuals (simulated - observed) were positively correlated with measured water table for both gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) at the two fen sites for all models, and were positively correlated with water table at the bog site for the majority of models. Modeled diurnal cycles at fen sites agreed well with eddy covariance measurements overall. Eddy covariance GEP and ER were higher during dry periods than during wet periods, while model results predicted either the opposite relationship or no significant difference. At the bog site, eddy covariance GEP had no significant dependence on water table, while models predicted higher GEP during wet periods. All models significantly over-estimated GEP at the bog site, and all but one over-estimated ER at the bog site. Carbon cycle models in peatland-rich regions could be improved by incorporating better models or measurements of hydrology and by inhibiting GEP and ER rates under saturated conditions. Bogs and fens likely require distinct treatments in ecosystem models due to differences in nutrients, peat properties, and plant communities.

  11. Advancing research on animal-transported subsidies by integrating animal movement and ecosystem modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Julia E; Zollner, Patrick A

    2017-09-01

    Connections between ecosystems via animals (active subsidies) support ecosystem services and contribute to numerous ecological effects. Thus, the ability to predict the spatial distribution of active subsidies would be useful for ecology and conservation. Previous work modelling active subsidies focused on implicit space or static distributions, which treat passive and active subsidies similarly. Active subsidies are fundamentally different from passive subsidies, because animals can respond to the process of subsidy deposition and ecosystem changes caused by subsidy deposition. We propose addressing this disparity by integrating animal movement and ecosystem ecology to advance active subsidy investigations, make more accurate predictions of subsidy spatial distributions, and enable a mechanistic understanding of subsidy spatial distributions. We review selected quantitative techniques that could be used to accomplish integration and lead to novel insights. The ultimate objective for these types of studies is predictions of subsidy spatial distributions from characteristics of the subsidy and the movement strategy employed by animals that transport subsidies. These advances will be critical in informing the management of ecosystem services, species conservation and ecosystem degradation related to active subsidies. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

  12. Habitat connectivity and ecosystem productivity: implications from a simple model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, James E

    2007-01-01

    The import of resources (food, nutrients) sustains biological production and food webs in resource-limited habitats. Resource export from donor habitats subsidizes production in recipient habitats, but the ecosystem-scale consequences of resource translocation are generally unknown. Here, I use a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model to show how dispersive connectivity between a shallow autotrophic habitat and a deep heterotrophic pelagic habitat can amplify overall system production in metazoan food webs. This result derives from the finite capacity of suspension feeders to capture and assimilate food particles: excess primary production in closed autotrophic habitats cannot be assimilated by consumers; however, if excess phytoplankton production is exported to food-limited heterotrophic habitats, it can be assimilated by zooplankton to support additional secondary production. Transport of regenerated nutrients from heterotrophic to autotrophic habitats sustains higher system primary production. These simulation results imply that the ecosystem-scale efficiency of nutrient transformation into metazoan biomass can be constrained by the rate of resource exchange across habitats and that it is optimized when the transport rate matches the growth rate of primary producers. Slower transport (i.e., reduced connectivity) leads to nutrient limitation of primary production in autotrophic habitats and food limitation of secondary production in heterotrophic habitats. Habitat fragmentation can therefore impose energetic constraints on the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems. The outcomes of ecosystem restoration through habitat creation will be determined by both functions provided by newly created aquatic habitats and the rates of hydraulic connectivity between them.

  13. Measuring and Modeling the U.S. Regulatory Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommarito, Michael J., II; Katz, Daniel Martin

    2017-09-01

    Over the last 23 years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has required over 34,000 companies to file over 165,000 annual reports. These reports, the so-called "Form 10-Ks," contain a characterization of a company's financial performance and its risks, including the regulatory environment in which a company operates. In this paper, we analyze over 4.5 million references to U.S. Federal Acts and Agencies contained within these reports to measure the regulatory ecosystem, in which companies are organisms inhabiting a regulatory environment. While individuals across the political, economic, and academic world frequently refer to trends in this regulatory ecosystem, far less attention has been paid to supporting such claims with large-scale, longitudinal data. In this paper, in addition to positing a model of regulatory ecosystems, we document an increase in the regulatory energy per filing, i.e., a warming "temperature." We also find that the diversity of the regulatory ecosystem has been increasing over the past two decades. These findings support the claim that regulatory activity and complexity are increasing, and this framework contributes an important step towards improving academic and policy discussions around legal complexity and regulation.

  14. Coupling ecosystems exposure to nitrogen and species sensitivity to hypoxia: modelling marine eutrophication in LCIA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Koski, Marja; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    Characterisation modelling in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) quantifies impacts of anthropogenic emissions by applying substance-specific impact potentials, or Characterisation Factors (CF), to the amount of substances emitted. Nitrogen (N) emissions from human activities enrich coastal marine...... ecosystems and promote planktonic growth that may lead to marine eutrophication impacts. Excessive algal biomass and dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion typify the ecosystem response to the nutrient input. The present novel method couples a mechanistic model of coastal biological processes that determines...... the ecosystem response (exposure) to anthropogenic N enrichment (eXposure Factor, XF [kgO2·kgN-1]) with the sensitivity of species exposed to oxygen-depleted waters (Effect Factor, EF [(PAF)·m3·kgO2-1], expressed as a Potentially Affected Fraction (PAF) of species). Thus, the coupled indicator (XF*EF, [(PAF)·m3...

  15. Quantifying regional changes in terrestrial carbon storage by extrapolation from local ecosystem models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, A W

    1991-12-31

    A general procedure for quantifying regional carbon dynamics by spatial extrapolation of local ecosystem models is presented Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the expected value of one or more local models, explicitly integrating the spatial heterogeneity of variables that influence ecosystem carbon flux and storage. These variables are described by empirically derived probability distributions that are input to the Monte Carlo process. The procedure provides large-scale regional estimates based explicitly on information and understanding acquired at smaller and more accessible scales.Results are presented from an earlier application to seasonal atmosphere-biosphere CO{sub 2} exchange for circumpolar ``subarctic`` latitudes (64{degree}N-90{degree}N). Results suggest that, under certain climatic conditions, these high northern ecosystems could collectively release 0.2 Gt of carbon per year to the atmosphere. I interpret these results with respect to questions about global biospheric sinks for atmospheric CO{sub 2} .

  16. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of

  17. Denitrification and Ecosystem Services: Mapping and Modeling Conservation Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, C. K.; Walter, T.

    2012-12-01

    Precision conservation is the latest effort to increase higher efficiency in agricultural best management practices by considering the spatial and temporal variability in agroecosystems. The authors have developed a framework for incorporating the ecosystem service of denitrification into an existing precision conservation mapping tool. The model identifies areas of denitirification and quantifies potential denitrification when a conservation practice is adopted. The methodology is being tested in a small subwatershed in the Upper Susquehanna Basin of New York State.

  18. Modeling multiphase materials processes

    CERN Document Server

    Iguchi, Manabu

    2010-01-01

    ""Modeling Multiphase Materials Processes: Gas-Liquid Systems"" describes the methodology and application of physical and mathematical modeling to multi-phase flow phenomena in materials processing. The book focuses on systems involving gas-liquid interaction, the most prevalent in current metallurgical processes. The performance characteristics of these processes are largely dependent on transport phenomena. This volume covers the inherent characteristics that complicate the modeling of transport phenomena in such systems, including complex multiphase structure, intense turbulence, opacity of

  19. Outdoor model simulating a Baltic Sea littoral ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Notini, M; Nagell, B; Hagstroem, A; Grahn, O

    1977-01-01

    Plastic pools (surface 6.6 m/sup 2/, volume 4.2 m/sup 3/) were equipped with a flow-through system providing 2.51 min/sup -1/. Except for fish predators the main components of the flora and fauna of the Baltic littoral zone were introduced into the pools to form a model of the ecosystem. During 8 weeks the macroscopic epifauna and infauna of the bladder wrack Fucus vesiculosus L. were found to be qualitatively and quantitatively fairly stable, and the number of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria showed little variation. Oxygen concentration, temperature and pH were recorded and compared with values measured in the littoral zone. The results indicate good agreement between the characters of the model system and of the natural littoral ecosystem. This together with the observed stability and the possibilities for controlling and measuring the conditions in the system makes us believe that the model is a valuable tool for assessing toxic effects on the littoral ecosystem.

  20. Environmental fate of rice paddy pesticides in a model ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomizawa, C; Kazano, H

    1979-01-01

    The distribution and metabolic fate of several rice paddy pesticides were evaluated in a modified model ecosystem. Among the three BHC isomers, beta-isomer was the most stable and bioconcentrated in all of the organisms. Alpha- and gamma-isomers were moderately persistent and degraded to some extent during the 33 day period. Disulfoton was relatively persistent due to the transformation to its oxidation products. Pyridaphenthion was fairly biodegradable. N-Phenyl maleic hydrazide derived from the hydrolysis of pyridaphenthion was not detected in the organisms though it was found in the aquarium water after 33 days. Cartap and edifenphos were considerably biodegradable, and the ratio of the conversion to water soluble metabolites was very high. There was a distinct difference in the persistence of Kitazin P and edifenphos in the aquarium water. It appeared that the hydrolysis rate of the pesticides affected their fate in the organisms. PCP appeared to be moderately biodegradable. CNP was considerably stable and stored in the organisms though the concentration in the aquarium water was relatively low. The persistence and distribution of the pesticides in the model ecosystem were dependent on their chemical structures. In spite of the limitation derived from short experimental period, the model ecosystem may be applicable for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides.

  1. Stochastic models for predicting environmental impact in aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart-Oaten, A.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of stochastic predictions are discussed in relation to the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants on aquatic ecosystems. One purpose is to aid in making rational decisions about whether a power plant should be built, where, and how it should be designed. The other purpose is to check on the models themselves in the light of what eventually happens. The author discusses the role or statistical decision theory in the decision-making problem. Various types of stochastic models and their problems are presented. In addition some suggestions are made for generating usable stochastic models, and checking and improving on them. 12 references

  2. Simulated carbon and water processes of forest ecosystems in Forsmark and Oskarshamn during a 100-year period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik; Gaerdenaes, Annemieke; Eckersten, Henrik

    2006-12-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is currently investigating the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas for possible localisation of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Important components of the investigations are characterizations of the land surface ecosystems in the areas with respect to hydrological and biological processes, and their implications for the fate of radionuclide contaminants entering the biosphere from a shallow groundwater contamination. In this study, we simulate water balance and carbon turnover processes in forest ecosystems representative for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas for a 100-year period using the ecosystem process model CoupModel. The CoupModel describes the fluxes of water and matter in a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-atmosphere system, forced by time series of meteorological variables. The model has previously been parameterized for many of the vegetation systems that can be found in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas: spruce/pine forests, willow, grassland and different agricultural crops. This report presents a platform for further use of models like CoupModel for investigations of radionuclide turnover in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn area based on SKB data, including a data set of meteorological forcing variables for Forsmark 1970-2004, suitable for simulations of a 100-year period representing the present day climate, a hydrological parameterization of the CoupModel for simulations of the forest ecosystems in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas, and simulated carbon budgets and process descriptions for Forsmark that correspond to a possible steady state of the soil storage of the forest ecosystem

  3. Simulated carbon and water processes of forest ecosystems in Forsmark and Oskarshamn during a 100-year period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Land and Water Resources Engineering; Gaerdenaes, Annemieke [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Soil Sciences; Eckersten, Henrik [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden). Dept. of Crop Production Ecology

    2006-12-15

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) is currently investigating the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas for possible localisation of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Important components of the investigations are characterizations of the land surface ecosystems in the areas with respect to hydrological and biological processes, and their implications for the fate of radionuclide contaminants entering the biosphere from a shallow groundwater contamination. In this study, we simulate water balance and carbon turnover processes in forest ecosystems representative for the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas for a 100-year period using the ecosystem process model CoupModel. The CoupModel describes the fluxes of water and matter in a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-atmosphere system, forced by time series of meteorological variables. The model has previously been parameterized for many of the vegetation systems that can be found in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas: spruce/pine forests, willow, grassland and different agricultural crops. This report presents a platform for further use of models like CoupModel for investigations of radionuclide turnover in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn area based on SKB data, including a data set of meteorological forcing variables for Forsmark 1970-2004, suitable for simulations of a 100-year period representing the present day climate, a hydrological parameterization of the CoupModel for simulations of the forest ecosystems in the Forsmark and Oskarshamn areas, and simulated carbon budgets and process descriptions for Forsmark that correspond to a possible steady state of the soil storage of the forest ecosystem.

  4. The functional value of Caribbean coral reef, seagrass and mangrove habitats to ecosystem processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harborne, Alastair R; Mumby, Peter J; Micheli, Fiorenza; Perry, Christopher T; Dahlgren, Craig P; Holmes, Katherine E; Brumbaugh, Daniel R

    2006-01-01

    Caribbean coral reef habitats, seagrass beds and mangroves provide important goods and services both individually and through functional linkages. A range of anthropogenic factors are threatening the ecological and economic importance of these habitats and it is vital to understand how ecosystem processes vary across seascapes. A greater understanding of processes will facilitate further insight into the effects of disturbances and assist with assessing management options. Despite the need to study processes across whole seascapes, few spatially explicit ecosystem-scale assessments exist. We review the empirical literature to examine the role of different habitat types for a range of processes. The importance of each of 10 generic habitats to each process is defined as its "functional value" (none, low, medium or high), quantitatively derived from published data wherever possible and summarised in a single figure. This summary represents the first time the importance of habitats across an entire Caribbean seascape has been assessed for a range of processes. Furthermore, we review the susceptibility of each habitat to disturbances to investigate spatial patterns that might affect functional values. Habitat types are considered at the scale discriminated by remotely-sensed imagery and we envisage that functional values can be combined with habitat maps to provide spatially explicit information on processes across ecosystems. We provide examples of mapping the functional values of habitats for populations of three commercially important species. The resulting data layers were then used to generate seascape-scale assessments of "hot spots" of functional value that might be considered priorities for conservation. We also provide an example of how the literature reviewed here can be used to parameterise a habitat-specific model investigating reef resilience under different scenarios of herbivory. Finally, we use multidimensional scaling to provide a basic analysis of the

  5. Process modeling style

    CERN Document Server

    Long, John

    2014-01-01

    Process Modeling Style focuses on other aspects of process modeling beyond notation that are very important to practitioners. Many people who model processes focus on the specific notation used to create their drawings. While that is important, there are many other aspects to modeling, such as naming, creating identifiers, descriptions, interfaces, patterns, and creating useful process documentation. Experience author John Long focuses on those non-notational aspects of modeling, which practitioners will find invaluable. Gives solid advice for creating roles, work produ

  6. Understanding variation in ecosystem pulse responses to wetting: Benefits of data-model coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenerette, D.

    2011-12-01

    Metabolic pulses of activity are a common ecological response to intermittently available resources and in water-limited ecosystems these pulses often occur in response to wetting. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in response to episodic wetting events is hypothesized to have a complex trajectory reflecting the distinct responses, or "pulses", of respiration and photosynthesis. To help direct research activities a physiological-based model of whole ecosystem metabolic activity up- and down-regulation was developed to investigate ecosystem energy balance and gas exchange pulse responses following precipitation events. This model was to investigate pulse dynamics from a local network of sites in southern Arizona, a global network of eddy-covariance ecosystem monitoring sites, laboratory incubation studies, and field manipulations. Pulse responses were found to be ubiquitous across ecosystem types. These pulses had a highly variable influence on NEE following wetting, ranging from large net sinks to sources of CO2 to the atmosphere. Much of the variability in pulse responses of NEE could be described through a coupled up- and down-regulation pulse response model. Respiration pulses were hypothesized to occur through a reduction in whole ecosystem activation energy; this model was both useful and corroborated through laboratory incubation studies of soil respiration. Using the Fluxnet eddy-covariance measurement database event specific responses were combined with the pulse model into an event specific twenty-five day net flux calculation. Across all events observed a general net accumulation of CO2 following a precipitation event, with the largest net uptake within deciduous broadleaf forests and smallest within grasslands. NEE pulses favored greater uptake when pre-event ecosystem respiration rates and total precipitation were higher. While the latter was expected, the former adds to previous theory by suggesting a larger net uptake of CO2 when pre-event metabolic

  7. Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

    2003-01-01

    A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

  8. A Landscape-level Model for Ecosystem Restoration in the San Francisco Estuary and Its Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim Kimmerer

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available The CALFED Bay-Delta Program is an ambitious effort to restore ecosystems and improve reliability of ecosystem services in California’s Central Valley. Key issues for CALFED and its Ecosystem Restoration Program (ERP include (1 meeting societal demand for multiple, potentially conflicting ecosystem services; (2 the tradeoff among more or less environmentally intrusive approaches to solving problems; (3 whether restoration should focus at the ecosystem level or on individual species; (4 the appropriate response to uncertainty; and (5 the tension between action and investigation. A long-term, landscape-scale perspective is essential for framing the scientific questions underlying these broad issues. We introduce a landscape-scale conceptual model that illustrates linkages, including material flows and animal migration, among the major ecosystem components being described in detail in a series of review papers. This model shows how linkages between ecosystem components result in remote consequences of locally applied restoration actions. The network of linkages is made more complicated by human interventions, which add components not previously a part of the landscape (e.g., salmonid hatcheries and alter or even reverse causal relations. A landscape perspective also helps identify conceptual gaps in CALFED’s restoration strategy, such as climate change and human population growth, which should be explicitly considered in forecasts of the long-term prospects for restoration. A landscape perspective is no panacea; in particular, the effects of restoration at this scale will be difficult to detect. Nevertheless, we advocate integrating investigations of processes at nested, smaller scales as an approach for evaluating effects of individual restoration actions and of the entire program. We believe CALFED and other large restoration programs will be most successful if they are able to integrate both societal expectations and scientific study at the

  9. Product and Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

    . These approaches are put into the context of life cycle modelling, where multiscale and multiform modelling is increasingly prevalent in the 21st century. The book commences with a discussion of modern product and process modelling theory and practice followed by a series of case studies drawn from a variety......This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models...... to biotechnology applications, food, polymer and human health application areas. The book highlights to important nature of modern product and process modelling in the decision making processes across the life cycle. As such it provides an important resource for students, researchers and industrial practitioners....

  10. Standard Model processes

    CERN Document Server

    Mangano, M.L.; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Alekhin, S.; Badger, S.; Bauer, C.W.; Becher, T.; Bertone, V.; Bonvini, M.; Boselli, S.; Bothmann, E.; Boughezal, R.; Cacciari, M.; Carloni Calame, C.M.; Caola, F.; Campbell, J.M.; Carrazza, S.; Chiesa, M.; Cieri, L.; Cimaglia, F.; Febres Cordero, F.; Ferrarese, P.; D'Enterria, D.; Ferrera, G.; Garcia i Tormo, X.; Garzelli, M.V.; Germann, E.; Hirschi, V.; Han, T.; Ita, H.; Jäger, B.; Kallweit, S.; Karlberg, A.; Kuttimalai, S.; Krauss, F.; Larkoski, A.J.; Lindert, J.; Luisoni, G.; Maierhöfer, P.; Mattelaer, O.; Martinez, H.; Moch, S.; Montagna, G.; Moretti, M.; Nason, P.; Nicrosini, O.; Oleari, C.; Pagani, D.; Papaefstathiou, A.; Petriello, F.; Piccinini, F.; Pierini, M.; Pierog, T.; Pozzorini, S.; Re, E.; Robens, T.; Rojo, J.; Ruiz, R.; Sakurai, K.; Salam, G.P.; Salfelder, L.; Schönherr, M.; Schulze, M.; Schumann, S.; Selvaggi, M.; Shivaji, A.; Siodmok, A.; Skands, P.; Torrielli, P.; Tramontano, F.; Tsinikos, I.; Tweedie, B.; Vicini, A.; Westhoff, S.; Zaro, M.; Zeppenfeld, D.; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2017-06-22

    This report summarises the properties of Standard Model processes at the 100 TeV pp collider. We document the production rates and typical distributions for a number of benchmark Standard Model processes, and discuss new dynamical phenomena arising at the highest energies available at this collider. We discuss the intrinsic physics interest in the measurement of these Standard Model processes, as well as their role as backgrounds for New Physics searches.

  11. Integration of coral reef ecosystem process studies and remote sensing: Chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, John; Yates, Kimberly; Halley, Robert

    2006-01-01

    anthropogenic causes (Brown, 1988). Models of coral reef ecosystems, parameterized by process measurements and scaled in time-space using remote sensing, have the potential to address pressing research questions that are central to devising valid management strategies (Grigg el al., 1984; Hatcher, 1997b). To attain this goal, ecosystem-level models that integrate studies of physical and chemical forcing with observed biological and geological responses are required. This interdisciplinary approach to understanding reef biogeochemical dynamics can allow investigations that integrate the scales of time and space (Hatcher, 1997a), thereby enabling prediction of coral reef change (Andréfouët and Payri, 2001). In turn, prediction of holistic ecosystem function within various environmental focusing scenarios has substantial promise in mitigating future disturbance. Indeed, management of coral reefs at the ecosystem level has been suggested as the only meaningful approach to preserving coral reefs (Bohnsack and Ault, 1996; Christensen et al., 1996).

  12. Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B; Doney, Scott C

    2018-02-02

    Many global change stresses on terrestrial and marine ecosystems affect not only ecosystem services that are essential to humankind, but also the trajectory of future climate by altering energy and mass exchanges with the atmosphere. Earth system models, which simulate terrestrial and marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, offer a common framework for ecological research related to climate processes; analyses of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation; and climate change mitigation. They provide an opportunity to move beyond physical descriptors of atmospheric and oceanic states to societally relevant quantities such as wildfire risk, habitat loss, water availability, and crop, fishery, and timber yields. To achieve this, the science of climate prediction must be extended to a more multifaceted Earth system prediction that includes the biosphere and its resources. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  13. Science in the public process of ecosystem management: lessons from Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US Mainland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutrich, John; Donovan, Deanna; Finucane, Melissa; Focht, Will; Hitzhusen, Fred; Manopimoke, Supachit; McCauley, David; Norton, Bryan; Sabatier, Paul; Salzman, Jim; Sasmitawidjaja, Virza

    2005-08-01

    Partnerships and co-operative environmental management are increasing worldwide as is the call for scientific input in the public process of ecosystem management. In Hawaii, private landowners, non-governmental organizations, and state and federal agencies have formed watershed partnerships to conserve and better manage upland forested watersheds. In this paper, findings of an international workshop convened in Hawaii to explore the strengths of approaches used to assess stakeholder values of environmental resources and foster consensus in the public process of ecosystem management are presented. Authors draw upon field experience in projects throughout Hawaii, Southeast Asia, Africa and the US mainland to derive a set of lessons learned that can be applied to Hawaiian and other watershed partnerships in an effort to promote consensus and sustainable ecosystem management. Interdisciplinary science-based models can serve as effective tools to identify areas of potential consensus in the process of ecosystem management. Effective integration of scientific input in co-operative ecosystem management depends on the role of science, the stakeholders and decision-makers involved, and the common language utilized to compare tradeoffs. Trust is essential to consensus building and the integration of scientific input must be transparent and inclusive of public feedback. Consideration of all relevant stakeholders and the actual benefits and costs of management activities to each stakeholder is essential. Perceptions and intuitive responses of people can be as influential as analytical processes in decision-making and must be addressed. Deliberative, dynamic and iterative decision-making processes all influence the level of stakeholder achievement of consensus. In Hawaii, application of lessons learned can promote more informed and democratic decision processes, quality scientific analysis that is relevant, and legitimacy and public acceptance of ecosystem management.

  14. Small diversity effects on ocean primary production under environmental change in a diversity-resolving ocean ecosystem model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2013-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic diversity. Diversity, however, can affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Using a global ocean ecosystem model...... the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  15. Assimilation of satellite color observations in a coupled ocean GCM-ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    1992-01-01

    Monthly average coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates of chlorophyll concentration were assimilated into an ocean global circulation model(GCM) containing a simple model of the pelagic ecosystem. The assimilation was performed in the simplest possible manner, to allow the assessment of whether there were major problems with the ecosystem model or with the assimilation procedure. The current ecosystem model performed well in some regions, but failed in others to assimilate chlorophyll estimates without disrupting important ecosystem properties. This experiment gave insight into those properties of the ecosystem model that must be changed to allow data assimilation to be generally successful, while raising other important issues about the assimilation procedure.

  16. How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prowe, Friederike; Pahlow, M.; Dutkiewicz, S.

    2014-01-01

    Marine ecosystem models used to investigate how global change affects ocean ecosystems and their functioning typically omit pelagic plankton diversity. Diversity, however, may affect functions such as primary production and their sensitivity to environmental changes. Here we use a global ocean...... ecosystem model that explicitly resolves phytoplankton diversity by defining subtypes within four phytoplankton functional types (PFTs). We investigate the model's ability to capture diversity effects on primary production under environmental change. An idealized scenario with a sudden reduction in vertical...... in the model, for example via trade-offs or different PFTs, thus determines the diversity effects on ecosystem functioning captured in ocean ecosystem models....

  17. [Modeling of Processes of Migration and Accumulation of Radionuclides in Freshwater Ecosystems by the Example of the Samson, Lev, Vandras Rivers Related to the Ob-Irtysh River Basin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapeznikov, A V; Korzhavin, A V; Trapeznikova, V N; Nikolkin, V N

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models of horizontal distribution and migration of radionuclides are presented in water and floodplain soils of the Samson-Lev-Vandras river system related to the Ob-Irtysh river basin. Integral inventory of radionuclides in the main components of the river ecosystems is calculated. The estimated annual discharge of radionuclides from the Vandras river to the Great Salym river is given. The effect of the removal of man-made radionuclides in the Samson, Lev, Vandras rivers on radioactive contamination of the Ob-Irtysh river system is shown in comparison with the Techa river, that also belongs to the Ob-Irtysh river basin. Despite the presence of an additional radioactive contamination of the Samson floodplain, the transfer of radioactive substances in the Samson, Lev, Vandras rivers has a much smaller impact on the contamination of the Ob-Irtysh river system, compared to the Techa river, prone to a large-scale radioactive contamination.

  18. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-01

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  19. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-15

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  20. Comparison of a Mass Balance and an Ecosystem Model Approach when Evaluating the Carbon Cycling in a Lake Ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Eva; Sobek, Sebastian

    2006-01-01

    Carbon budgets are frequently used in order to understand the pathways of organic matter in ecosystems, and they also have an important function in the risk assessment of harmful substances. We compared two approaches, mass balance calculations and an ecosystem budget, to describe carbon processing in a shallow, oligotrophic hardwater lake. Both approaches come to the same main conclusion, namely that the lake is a net auto trophic ecosystem, in spite of its high dissolved organic carbon and low total phosphorus concentrations. However, there were several differences between the carbon budgets, e.g. in the rate of sedimentation and the air-water flux of CO 2 . The largest uncertainty in the mass balance is the contribution of emergent macrophytes to the carbon cycling of the lake, while the ecosystem budget is very sensitive towards the choice of conversion factors and literature values. While the mass balance calculations produced more robust results, the ecosystem budget gave valuable insights into the pathways of organic matter transfer in the ecosystem. We recommend that when using an ecosystem budget for the risk assessment of harmful substances, mass balance calculations should be performed in parallel in order to increase the robustness of the conclusions

  1. BOREAS Follow-On DSP-05 Process-Modeled Net Primary Productivity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The BOREAS DSP-5 team generated a NPP image over the BOREAS region from a process-based ecosystem model, the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS). The NPP...

  2. BOREAS Follow-On DSP-05 Process-Modeled Net Primary Productivity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: The BOREAS DSP-5 team generated a NPP image over the BOREAS region from a process-based ecosystem model, the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator...

  3. Models for transport and fate of carbon, nutrients and radionuclides in the aquatic ecosystem at Oeregrundsgrepen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erichsen, Anders Christian; Moehlenberg, Flemming; Closter, Rikke Margrethe; Sandberg, Johannes (DHI, Hoersholm (Denmark))

    2010-06-15

    The aim of the work was to provide supplementary input to the risk assessment of a planned final nuclear waste repository at Forsmark. The main deliverable was a computed water exchange between basins in the Forsmark marine area for the period 6500 BC to 9000 AD - based on the hydrodynamic modelling - to be used as input to the landscape dose model. In addition and what is described in this report, a second deliverable was development and application of high-resolution models for the marine ecosystem and radionuclide processes. The purpose of this deliverable was to illustrate the spatial and temporal variation in important processes and parameters, while constituting a complement to previous modelling approaches and providing supporting information to discussions of the marine ecosystem, parameters and variation (see Chapter 4 and 6).To this end, a hydrodynamic model of high temporal and spatial resolution was constructed and calibrated for the Forsmark area. An ecosystem model was then developed and coupled to the hydrodynamic model. In turn, a detailed radionuclide model was coupled to the ecosystem model to provide detailed predictions of radionuclide transport and accumulation in the coastal ecosystem. The ecosystem and radionuclide models were developed in the equation solver MIKE ECOLab that links seamless to the MIKE3 FM hydrodynamic model. The 'standard' ECOLab ecosystem model was extended with six biological state variables, perennial macroalgae, benthic herbivors, detritus feeders, planktivorus fish and, benthic predators representing the relict isopod Saduria and cod. In contrast to the ecosystem model, the radionuclide model was developed from scratch but building on the structure of the ecosystem model and using the output (process rates linking state variables) from the ecosystem model as input to the radionuclide model. Both the ecosystem model and the radionuclide model were run for several years (5-8 years) to bring state variables into

  4. Bioenergy Ecosystem Land-Use Modelling and Field Flux Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Niall; Bottoms, Emily; Donnison, Iain; Dondini, Marta; Farrar, Kerrie; Finch, Jon; Harris, Zoe; Ineson, Phil; Keane, Ben; Massey, Alice; McCalmont, Jon; Morison, James; Perks, Mike; Pogson, Mark; Rowe, Rebecca; Smith, Pete; Sohi, Saran; Tallis, Mat; Taylor, Gail; Yamulki, Sirwan

    2013-04-01

    Climate change impacts resulting from fossil fuel combustion and concerns about the diversity of energy supply are driving interest to find low-carbon energy alternatives. As a result bioenergy is receiving widespread scientific, political and media attention for its potential role in both supplying energy and mitigating greenhouse (GHG) emissions. It is estimated that the bioenergy contribution to EU 2020 renewable energy targets could require up to 17-21 million hectares of additional land in Europe (Don et al., 2012). There are increasing concerns that some transitions into bioenergy may not be as sustainable as first thought when GHG emissions from the crop growth and management cycle are factored into any GHG life cycle assessment (LCA). Bioenergy is complex and encapsulates a wide range of crops, varying from food crop based biofuels to dedicated second generation perennial energy crops and forestry products. The decision on the choice of crop for energy production significantly influences the GHG mitigation potential. It is recognised that GHG savings or losses are in part a function of the original land-use that has undergone change and the management intensity for the energy crop. There is therefore an urgent need to better quantify both crop and site-specific effects associated with the production of conventional and dedicated energy crops on the GHG balance. Currently, there is scarcity of GHG balance data with respect to second generation crops meaning that process based models and LCAs of GHG balances are weakly underpinned. Therefore, robust, models based on real data are urgently required. In the UK we have recently embarked on a detailed program of work to address this challenge by combining a large number of field studies with state-of-the-art process models. Through six detailed experiments, we are calculating the annual GHG balances of land use transitions into energy crops across the UK. Further, we are quantifying the total soil carbon gain or

  5. Responses in Arctic marine carbon cycle processes: conceptual scenarios and implications for ecosystem function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen S. Findlay

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006: inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.

  6. Application of a terrestrial ecosystem model (ORCHIDEE-STICS) in simulating energy and CO2 fluxes in Asian rice croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Piao, S.; Ciais, P.; Vuichard, N.

    2012-12-01

    Process-based terrestrial ecosystem models have shown great potentials in predicting the response of managed ecosystems to environmental changes. However, the simulated water and carbon fluxes over rice ecosystems in tropical Asia are still subject to large uncertainties, partly due to poorly constrained parameters in the models. Here, a terrestrial ecosystem model incorporating a more realistic crop module (ORCHIDEE-STICS) was calibrated against in-situ flux data and observed and remotely sensed leaf area indexes over rice ecosystems in Asia. The key parameters adjusted include maximum photosynthetic carboxylation rate (Vcmax) and electron transport rate (Vjmax), temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration (Q10) and a series of critical thresholds for different crop development stages. Compared with the observations, the calibrated model more realistically simulated the seasonal and year-to-year variation of the observed water and carbon fluxes with reductions in the root mean square difference and better timing in the crop development stages. Sensitivity tests further reveal that management practices like the timing of transplanting and draining could affect the seasonal and inter-annual variation of the net carbon exchange, suggesting that the absence of explicit accounting the change of management practices in the terrestrial ecosystem models may induce large uncertainties in predicting cropland ecosystem response to future climate change.

  7. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Environmental and Toxicological Sciences Research Group, Chiba (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  8. Model ecosystem approach to estimate community level effects of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masahiro, Doi; Nobuyuki, Tanaka; Shoichi, Fuma; Nobuyoshi, Ishii; Hiroshi, Takeda; Zenichiro, Kawabata

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics and dynamic mass budgets of the microbial community realized as a self sustainable aquatic ecological system in the tube. Autotrophic algae, heterotrophic protozoa and sapro-trophic bacteria live symbiotically with inter-species' interactions as predator-prey relationship, competition for the common resource, autolysis of detritus and detritus-grazing food chain, etc. The simulation model is the individual-based parallel model, built in the demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity by dividing the aquatic environment into patches. Validity of the model is checked by the multifaceted data of the microcosm experiments. In the analysis, intrinsic parameters of umbrella endpoints (lethality, morbidity, reproductive growth, mutation) are manipulated at the individual level, and tried to find the population level, community level and ecosystem level disorders of ecologically crucial parameters (e.g. intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity, variation, etc.) that related to the probability of population extinction. (author)

  9. On the use of tower-flux measurements to assess the performance of global ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    El Maayar, M.; Kucharik, C.

    2003-04-01

    Global ecosystem models are important tools for the study of biospheric processes and their responses to environmental changes. Such models typically translate knowledge, gained from local observations, into estimates of regional or even global outcomes of ecosystem processes. A typical test of ecosystem models consists of comparing their output against tower-flux measurements of land surface-atmosphere exchange of heat and mass. To perform such tests, models are typically run using detailed information on soil properties (texture, carbon content,...) and vegetation structure observed at the experimental site (e.g., vegetation height, vegetation phenology, leaf photosynthetic characteristics,...). In global simulations, however, earth's vegetation is typically represented by a limited number of plant functional types (PFT; group of plant species that have similar physiological and ecological characteristics). For each PFT (e.g., temperate broadleaf trees, boreal conifer evergreen trees,...), which can cover a very large area, a set of typical physiological and physical parameters are assigned. Thus, a legitimate question arises: How does the performance of a global ecosystem model run using detailed site-specific parameters compare with the performance of a less detailed global version where generic parameters are attributed to a group of vegetation species forming a PFT? To answer this question, we used a multiyear dataset, measured at two forest sites with contrasting environments, to compare seasonal and interannual variability of surface-atmosphere exchange of water and carbon predicted by the Integrated BIosphere Simulator-Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Two types of simulations were, thus, performed: a) Detailed runs: observed vegetation characteristics (leaf area index, vegetation height,...) and soil carbon content, in addition to climate and soil type, are specified for model run; and b) Generic runs: when only observed climates and soil types at the

  10. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND BEYOND: INTEGRATION OF ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE AND MULTIMEDIA EXPOSURE MODELING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decision-making for ecosystem protection and resource management requires an integrative science and technology applied with a sufficiently comprehensive systems approach. Single media (e.g., air, soil and water) approaches that evaluate aspects of an ecosystem in a stressor-by-...

  11. Studies on 14C labelled chlorpyrifos in model marine ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandit, G.G.; Mohan Rao, A.M.; Kale, S.P.; Murthy, N.B.K.; Raghu, K.

    1997-01-01

    Chlorpyrifos is one of the widely used organophosphorus insecticides in tropical countries. Experiments were conducted with 14 C labelled chlorpyrifos to study the distribution of this compound in model marine ecosystem. Less than 50 per cent of the applied activity remained in water in 24 h. Major portion of the applied chlorpyrifos (about 4.2 % residue per g) accumulated into the clams with sediment containing a maximum of 5 to 6 per cent of applied compound. No degradation of chlorpyrifos was observed in water or sediment samples. However, metabolic products were formed in clams. (author). 4 refs., 3 tabs

  12. WWTP Process Tank Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Jesper

    The present thesis considers numerical modeling of activated sludge tanks on municipal wastewater treatment plants. Focus is aimed at integrated modeling where the detailed microbiological model the Activated Sludge Model 3 (ASM3) is combined with a detailed hydrodynamic model based on a numerical...... solution of the Navier-Stokes equations in a multiphase scheme. After a general introduction to the activated sludge tank as a system, the activated sludge tank model is gradually setup in separate stages. The individual sub-processes that are often occurring in activated sludge tanks are initially...... hydrofoil shaped propellers. These two sub-processes deliver the main part of the supplied energy to the activated sludge tank, and for this reason they are important for the mixing conditions in the tank. For other important processes occurring in the activated sludge tank, existing models and measurements...

  13. The PEcAn Project: Accessible Tools for On-demand Ecosystem Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; Desai, A. R.; Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

    2014-12-01

    Ecosystem models play a critical role in understanding the terrestrial biosphere and forecasting changes in the carbon cycle, however current forecasts have considerable uncertainty. The amount of data being collected and produced is increasing on daily basis as we enter the "big data" era, but only a fraction of this data is being used to constrain models. Until we can improve the problems of model accessibility and model-data communication, none of these resources can be used to their full potential. The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an ecoinformatics toolbox and a set of workflows that wrap around an ecosystem model and manage the flow of information in and out of regional-scale TBMs. Here we present new modules developed in PEcAn to manage the processing of meteorological data, one of the primary driver dependencies for ecosystem models. The module downloads, reads, extracts, and converts meteorological observations to Unidata Climate Forecast (CF) NetCDF community standard, a convention used for most climate forecast and weather models. The module also automates the conversion from NetCDF to model specific formats, including basic merging, gap-filling, and downscaling procedures. PEcAn currently supports tower-based micrometeorological observations at Ameriflux and FluxNET sites, site-level CSV-formatted data, and regional and global reanalysis products such as the North American Regional Reanalysis and CRU-NCEP. The workflow is easily extensible to additional products and processing algorithms.These meteorological workflows have been coupled with the PEcAn web interface and now allow anyone to run multiple ecosystem models for any location on the Earth by simply clicking on an intuitive Google-map based interface. This will allow users to more readily compare models to observations at those sites, leading to better calibration and validation. Current work is extending these workflows to also process field, remotely-sensed, and historical

  14. Using ecosystem modelling techniques in exposure assessments of radionuclides - an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumblad, L.

    2005-01-01

    The risk to humans from potential releases from nuclear facilities is evaluated in safety assessments. Essential components of these assessments are exposure models, which estimate the transport of radionuclides in the environment, the uptake in biota, and transfer to humans. Recently, there has been a growing concern for radiological protection of the whole environment, not only humans, and a first attempt has been to employ model approaches based on stylized environments and transfer functions to biota based exclusively on bioconcentration factors (BCF). They are generally of a non-mechanistic nature and involve no knowledge of the actual processes involved, which is a severe limitation when assessing real ecosystems. in this paper, the possibility of using an ecological modelling approach as a complement or an alternative to the use of BCF-based models is discussed. The paper gives an overview of ecological and ecosystem modelling and examples of studies where ecosystem models have been used in association to ecological risk assessment studies for other pollutants than radionuclides. It also discusses the potential to use this technique in exposure assessments of radionuclides with a few examples from the safety assessment work performed by the Swedish nuclear fuel and waste management company (SKB). Finally there is a comparison of the characteristics of ecosystem models and traditionally exposure models for radionuclides used to estimate the radionuclide exposure of biota. The evaluation of ecosystem models already applied in safety assessments has shown that the ecosystem approach is possible to use to assess exposure to biota, and that it can handle many of the modelling problems identified related to BCF-models. The findings in this paper suggest that both national and international assessment frameworks for protection of the environment from ionising radiation would benefit from striving to adopt methodologies based on ecologically sound principles and

  15. DayCent-Chem Simulations of Ecological and Biogeochemical Processes of Eight Mountain Ecosystems in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartman, Melannie D.; Baron, Jill S.; Clow, David W.; Creed, Irena F.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Ewing, Holly A.; Haines, Bruce D.; Knoepp, Jennifer; Lajtha, Kate; Ojima, Dennis S.; Parton, William J.; Renfro, Jim; Robinson, R. Bruce; Van Miegroet, Helga; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Williams, Mark W.

    2009-01-01

    deposition as a result of dry and fog inputs. The uncertainties related to weathering reactions, deposition, soil cation exchange capacity, and groundwater contributions influenced how well the simulated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and pH estimates compared to observed values. Daily discharge was well represented by the model for most sites. The chapters of this report describe the parameterization for each site and summarize model results for ecosystem variables, stream discharge, and stream chemistry. This intersite comparison exercise provided insight about important and possibly not well understood processes.

  16. Emergence of a complex and stable network in a model ecosystem with extinction and mutation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokita, Kei; Yasutomi, Ayumu

    2003-03-01

    We propose a minimal model of the dynamics of diversity-replicator equations with extinction, invasion and mutation. We numerically study the behavior of this simple model and show that it displays completely different behavior from the conventional replicator equation and the generalized Lotka-Volterra equation. We reach several significant conclusions as follows: (1) a complex ecosystem can emerge when mutants with respect to species-specific interaction are introduced; (2) such an ecosystem possesses strong resistance to invasion; (3) a typical fixation process of mutants is realized through the rapid growth of a group of mutualistic mutants with higher fitness than majority species; (4) a hierarchical taxonomic structure (like family-genus-species) emerges; and (5) the relative abundance of species exhibits a typical pattern widely observed in nature. Several implications of these results are discussed in connection with the relationship of the present model to the generalized Lotka-Volterra equation.

  17. Modeling net ecosystem carbon exchange of alpine grasslands with a satellite-driven model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yan

    Full Text Available Estimate of net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, the balance of gross primary productivity (GPP and ecosystem respiration (Reco has significant importance for studying the regional and global carbon cycles. Using models driven by satellite data and climatic data is a promising approach to estimate NEE at regional scales. For this purpose, we proposed a semi-empirical model to estimate NEE in this study. In our model, the component GPP was estimated with a light response curve of a rectangular hyperbola. The component Reco was estimated with an exponential function of soil temperature. To test the feasibility of applying our model at regional scales, the temporal variations in the model parameters derived from NEE observations in an alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau were investigated. The results indicated that all the inverted parameters exhibit apparent seasonality, which is in accordance with air temperature and canopy phenology. In addition, all the parameters have significant correlations with the remote sensed vegetation indexes or environment temperature. With parameters estimated with these correlations, the model illustrated fair accuracy both in the validation years and at another alpine grassland ecosystem on Tibetan Plateau. Our results also indicated that the model prediction was less accurate in drought years, implying that soil moisture is an important factor affecting the model performance. Incorporating soil water content into the model would be a critical step for the improvement of the model.

  18. Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Greenberg 2005), effects of dredged material (PIANC 2006), and ecosystem restoration (Fischenich 2008) among others. The process of developing a conceptual...Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems by Burton C. Suedel, Nathan R. Beane, Eric R. Britzke, Cheryl R. Montgomery, and...are generally project or problem specific. Building a CM includes determining the components of the ecosystem , identifying relationships linking these

  19. How models can support ecosystem-based management of coral reefs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weijerman, M.W.; Fulton, E.A.; Janssen, A.B.G.; Kuiper, J.J.; Leemans, R.; Leemput, van de I.A.; Mooij, W.M.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the importance of coral reef ecosystems to the social and economic welfare of coastal communities, the condition of these marine ecosystems have generally degraded over the past decades. With an increased knowledge of coral reef ecosystem processes and a rise in computer power, dynamic

  20. Effects of diffuse radiation on canopy gas exchange processes in a forest ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knohl, Alexander; Baldocchi, Dennis D.

    2008-06-01

    Forest ecosystems across the globe show an increase in ecosystem carbon uptake efficiency under conditions with high fraction of diffuse radiation. Here, we combine eddy covariance flux measurements at a deciduous temperate forest in central Germany with canopy-scale modeling using the biophysical multilayer model CANVEG to investigate the impact of diffuse radiation on various canopy gas exchange processes and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms. Increasing diffuse radiation enhances canopy photosynthesis by redistributing the solar radiation load from light saturated sunlit leaves to nonsaturated shade leaves. Interactions with atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reduced leaf respiration are only of minor importance to canopy photosynthesis. The response strength of carbon uptake to diffuse radiation depends on canopy characteristics such as leaf area index and leaf optical properties. Our model computations shows that both canopy photosynthesis and transpiration increase initially with diffuse fraction, but decrease after an optimum at a diffuse fraction of 0.45 due to reduction in global radiation. The initial increase in canopy photosynthesis exceeds the increase in transpiration, leading to a rise in water-use-efficiency. Our model predicts an increase in carbon isotope discrimination with water-use-efficiency resulting from differences in the leaf-to-air vapor pressure gradient and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit. This finding is in contrast to those predicted with simple big-leaf models that do not explicitly calculate leaf energy balance. At an annual scale, we estimate a decrease in annual carbon uptake for a potential increase in diffuse fraction, since diffuse fraction was beyond the optimum for 61% of the data.

  1. Water reservoirs - aquatic ecosystems subject to eutrophication processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionita, Veronica

    1997-01-01

    The paper presents some aspects relating to eutrophication of Batca Doamnei and Reconstructia hydropower lakes situated near Piatra Neamt town. The presence of phosphorus salts in the two water reservoirs (ten times the admissible content) is responsible for excessive growth of plants. In Reconstructia lake the diversity of species is also explained by the existence of large amounts of nitrogen salts. The general characteristic of aquatic macrophyte is the resistance to large variations of environmental factors (water level, currents, temperature, turbidity, organic material content), adaptation to water pollution conditions and development of adverse condition resistant forms. Besides Cladophora, a harmful species in fishing waters when growing excessively, others species are favorable to aquatic life and help to the consolidation of complex lake biocenoses, providing support, food and habitation for many small animal species which also favor other species economically valuable. The aquatic macrophytes are true biological filters which maintain the natural auto-purging potential of the waters. Taking into consideration these facts, the direct and indirect effects of plant destruction on the whole ecosystem should be carefully analyzed

  2. Modelling surface energy fluxes over a Dehesa ecosystem using a two-source energy balance model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreu, Ana; Kustas, William. P.; Anderson, Martha C.; Carrara, Arnaud; Patrocinio Gonzalez-Dugo, Maria

    2013-04-01

    The Dehesa is the most widespread agroforestry land-use system in Europe, covering more than 3 million hectares in the Iberian Peninsula and Greece (Grove and Rackham, 2001; Papanastasis, 2004). It is an agro-silvo-pastural ecosystem consisting of widely-spaced oak trees (mostly Quercus ilex L.), combined with crops, pasture and Mediterranean shrubs, and it is recognized as an example of sustainable land use and for his importance in the rural economy (Diaz et al., 1997; Plieninger and Wilbrand, 2001). The ecosystem is influenced by a Mediterranean climate, with recurrent and severe droughts. Over the last decades the Dehesa has faced multiple environmental threats, derived from intensive agricultural use and socio-economic changes, which have caused environmental degradation of the area, namely reduction in tree density and stocking rates, changes in soil properties and hydrological processes and an increase of soil erosion (Coelho et al. 2004; Schnabel and Ferreira, 2004; Montoya 1998; Pulido and Díaz, 2005). Understanding the hydrological, atmospheric and physiological processes that affect the functioning of the ecosystem will improve the management and conservation of the Dehesa. One of the key metrics in assessing ecosystem health, particularly in this water-limited environment, is the capability of monitoring evaporation (ET). To make large area assessments requires the use of remote sensing. Thermal-based energy balance techniques that distinguish soil/substrate and vegetation contributions to the radiative temperature and radiation/turbulent fluxes have proven to be reliable in such semi-arid sparse canopy-cover landscapes. In particular, the two-source energy balance (TSEB) model of Norman et al. (1995) and Kustas and Norman (1999) has shown to be robust for a wide range of partially-vegetated landscapes. The TSEB formulation is evaluated at a flux tower site located in center Spain (Majadas del Tietar, Caceres). Its application in this environment is

  3. Model Process Control Language

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The MPC (Model Process Control) language enables the capture, communication and preservation of a simulation instance, with sufficient detail that it can be...

  4. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. P. Tittensor

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0, part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size, and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s and future (to 2100 time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6 in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems

  5. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tittensor, Derek P.; Eddy, Tyler D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Galbraith, Eric D.; Cheung, William; Barange, Manuel; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bopp, Laurent; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Carozza, David A.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Dunne, John P.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Huber, Veronika; Jennings, Simon; Jones, Miranda; Lehodey, Patrick; Link, Jason S.; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Roy, Tilla; Schewe, Jacob; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Silva, Tiago; Stock, Charles A.; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Underwood, Philip J.; Volkholz, Jan; Watson, James R.; Walker, Nicola D.

    2018-04-01

    Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the

  6. The role of stoichiometric flexibility in modelling forest ecosystem responses to nitrogen fertilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyerholt, Johannes; Zaehle, Sönke

    2015-12-01

    The response of the forest carbon (C) balance to changes in nitrogen (N) deposition is uncertain, partly owing to diverging representations of N cycle processes in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here, we examined how different assumptions about the degree of flexibility of the ecosystem's C : N ratios contribute to this uncertainty, and which of these assumptions best correspond to the available data. We applied these assumptions within the framework of a DGVM and compared the results to responses in net primary productivity (NPP), leaf N concentration, and ecosystem N partitioning, observed at 22 forest N fertilization experiments. Employing flexible ecosystem pool C : N ratios generally resulted in the most convincing model-data agreement with respect to production and foliar N responses. An intermediate degree of stoichiometric flexibility in vegetation, where wood C : N ratio changes were decoupled from leaf and root C : N ratio changes, led to consistent simulation of production and N cycle responses to N addition. Assuming fixed C : N ratios or scaling leaf N concentration changes to other tissues, commonly assumed by DGVMs, was not supported by reported data. Between the tested assumptions, the simulated changes in ecosystem C storage relative to changes in C assimilation varied by up to 20%. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

  7. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model: integrating ecosystem services into the DPSIR framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher R Kelble

    Full Text Available There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society

  8. The EBM-DPSER Conceptual Model: Integrating Ecosystem Services into the DPSIR Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelble, Christopher R.; Loomis, Dave K.; Lovelace, Susan; Nuttle, William K.; Ortner, Peter B.; Fletcher, Pamela; Cook, Geoffrey S.; Lorenz, Jerry J.; Boyer, Joseph N.

    2013-01-01

    There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within

  9. Ecosystem services and biogeochemical cycles on a global scale: valuation of water, carbon and nitrogen processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Marcos D.B.; Ortega, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem services (ES) are provided by healthy ecosystems and are fundamental to support human life. However, natural systems have been degraded all over the world and the process of degradation is partially attributed to the lack of knowledge regarding the economic benefits associated with ES, which usually are not captured in the market. To valuate ES without using conventional approaches, such as the human's willingness-to-pay for ecosystem goods and services, this paper uses a different method based on Energy Systems Theory to estimate prices for biogeochemical flows that affect ecosystem services by considering their emergy content converted to equivalent monetary terms. Ecosystem services related to water, carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical flows were assessed since they are connected to a range of final ecosystem services including climate regulation, hydrological regulation, food production, soil formation and others. Results in this paper indicate that aquifer recharge, groundwater flow, carbon dioxide sequestration, methane emission, biological nitrogen fixation, nitrous oxide emission and nitrogen leaching/runoff are the most critical biogeochemical flows in terrestrial systems. Moreover, monetary values related to biogeochemical flows on a global scale could provide important information for policymakers concerned with payment mechanisms for ecosystem services and costs of greenhouse gas emissions.

  10. Tansley Review No. 104, Calcium Physiology and Terrestrial Ecosystem Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    S.B. McLaughlin; R. Wimmer

    1999-01-01

    Calcium occupies a unique position among plant nutrients both chemically and functionally. Its chemical properties allow it to exist in a wide range of binding states and to serve in both structural and messenger roles. Despite its importance in many plant processes, Ca mobility is low, making Ca uptake and distribution rate a limiting process for many key plant...

  11. Biosphere Process Model Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Schmitt

    2000-05-25

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  12. Biosphere Process Model Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitt, J.

    2000-01-01

    To evaluate the postclosure performance of a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, a Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) will be conducted. Nine Process Model Reports (PMRs), including this document, are being developed to summarize the technical basis for each of the process models supporting the TSPA model. These reports cover the following areas: (1) Integrated Site Model; (2) Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport; (3) Near Field Environment; (4) Engineered Barrier System Degradation, Flow, and Transport; (5) Waste Package Degradation; (6) Waste Form Degradation; (7) Saturated Zone Flow and Transport; (8) Biosphere; and (9) Disruptive Events. Analysis/Model Reports (AMRs) contain the more detailed technical information used to support TSPA and the PMRs. The AMRs consists of data, analyses, models, software, and supporting documentation that will be used to defend the applicability of each process model for evaluating the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository system. This documentation will ensure the traceability of information from its source through its ultimate use in the TSPA-Site Recommendation (SR) and in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis processes. The objective of the Biosphere PMR is to summarize (1) the development of the biosphere model, and (2) the Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCFs) developed for use in TSPA. The Biosphere PMR does not present or summarize estimates of potential radiation doses to human receptors. Dose calculations are performed as part of TSPA and will be presented in the TSPA documentation. The biosphere model is a component of the process to evaluate postclosure repository performance and regulatory compliance for a potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The biosphere model describes those exposure pathways in the biosphere by which radionuclides released from a potential repository could reach a human receptor

  13. Nitrogen controls on ecosystem carbon sequestration: a model implementation and application to Saskatchewan, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Price, D.T.; Chen, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    A plant–soil nitrogen (N) cycling model was developed and incorporated into the Integrated BIosphere Simulator (IBIS) of Foley et al. [Foley, J.A., Prentice, I.C., Ramankutty, N., Levis, S., Pollard, D., Sitch, S., Haxeltine, A., 1996. An integrated biosphere model of land surface process, terrestrial carbon balance and vegetation dynamics. Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 603–628]. In the N-model, soil mineral N regulates ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes and ecosystem C:N ratios. Net primary productivity (NPP) is controlled by feedbacks from both leaf C:N and soil mineral N. Leaf C:N determines the foliar and canopy photosynthesis rates, while soil mineral N determines the N availability for plant growth and the efficiency of biomass construction. Nitrogen controls on the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) are implemented through N immobilization and mineralization separately. The model allows greater SOM mineralization at lower mineral N, and conversely, allows greater N immobilization at higher mineral N. The model's seasonal and inter-annual behaviours are demonstrated. A regional simulation for Saskatchewan, Canada, was performed for the period 1851–2000 at a 10 km × 10 km resolution. Simulated NPP was compared with high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) NPP estimated from remote sensing data using the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) [Liu, J., Chen, J.M., Cihlar, J., Park, W.M., 1997. A process-based boreal ecosystem productivity simulator using remote sensing inputs. Remote Sens. Environ. 44, 81–87]. The agreement between IBIS and BEPS, particularly in NPP spatial variation, was considerably improved when the N controls were introduced into IBIS.

  14. Development of a coupled physical-biological ecosystem model ECOSMO - Part I: Model description and validation for the North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrum, Corinna; Alekseeva, I.; St. John, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A 3-D coupled biophysical model ECOSMO (ECOSystem MOdel) has been developed. The biological module of ECOSMO is based on lower trophic level interactions between two phyto- and two zooplankton components. The dynamics of the different phytoplankton components are governed by the availability...... of the macronutrients nitrogen, phosphate and silicate as well as light. Zooplankton production is simulated based on the consumption of the different phytoplankton groups and detritus. The biological module is coupled to a nonlinear 3-D baroclinic model. The physical and biological modules are driven by surface...... showed that the model, based on consideration of limiting processes, is able to reproduce the observed spatial and seasonal variability of the North Sea ecosystem e.g. the spring bloom, summer sub-surface production and the fall bloom. Distinct differences in regional characteristics of diatoms...

  15. Applying and Individual-Based Model to Simultaneously Evaluate Net Ecosystem Production and Tree Diameter Increment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, F. J.

    2017-12-01

    Reconciling observations at fundamentally different scales is central in understanding the global carbon cycle. This study investigates a model-based melding of forest inventory data, remote-sensing data and micrometeorological-station data ("flux towers" estimating forest heat, CO2 and H2O fluxes). The individual tree-based model FORCCHN was used to evaluate the tree DBH increment and forest carbon fluxes. These are the first simultaneous simulations of the forest carbon budgets from flux towers and individual-tree growth estimates of forest carbon budgets using the continuous forest inventory data — under circumstances in which both predictions can be tested. Along with the global implications of such findings, this also improves the capacity for forest sustainable management and the comprehensive understanding of forest ecosystems. In forest ecology, diameter at breast height (DBH) of a tree significantly determines an individual tree's cross-sectional sapwood area, its biomass and carbon storage. Evaluation the annual DBH increment (ΔDBH) of an individual tree is central to understanding tree growth and forest ecology. Ecosystem Carbon flux is a consequence of key ecosystem processes in the forest-ecosystem carbon cycle, Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP and NPP, respectively) and Net Ecosystem Respiration (NEP). All of these closely relate with tree DBH changes and tree death. Despite advances in evaluating forest carbon fluxes with flux towers and forest inventories for individual tree ΔDBH, few current ecological models can simultaneously quantify and predict the tree ΔDBH and forest carbon flux.

  16. ESTIMAP: A GIS-BASED MODEL TO MAP ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Zulian

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Policies of the European Union which affect the use or protection of natural resources increasingly need spatial data on the supply, the flow and the demand of ecosystem services. The model ESTIMAP was developed to this purpose. ESTIMAP departs from land cover and land use maps to which it adds other spatial information with the objective to map various ecosystem services. This study introduces the ESTIMAP map as tool to support the mapping and modelling of ecosystem services at European scale. Examples are provided for three regulating ecosystem services, air quality regulation, coastal protection, and pollination and one cultural ecosystem services, recreation. 

  17. Modeling coupled interactions of carbon, water, and ozone exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. I: Model description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikolov, Ned; Zeller, Karl F.

    2003-01-01

    A new biophysical model (FORFLUX) is presented to link ozone deposition with carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. - A new biophysical model (FORFLUX) is presented to study the simultaneous exchange of ozone, carbon dioxide, and water vapor between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The model mechanistically couples all major processes controlling ecosystem flows trace gases and water implementing recent concepts in plant eco-physiology, micrometeorology, and soil hydrology. FORFLUX consists of four interconnected modules-a leaf photosynthesis model, a canopy flux model, a soil heat-, water- and CO 2 - transport model, and a snow pack model. Photosynthesis, water-vapor flux and ozone uptake at the leaf level are computed by the LEAFC3 sub-model. The canopy module scales leaf responses to a stand level by numerical integration of the LEAFC3 model over canopy leaf area index (LAI). The integration takes into account (1) radiative transfer inside the canopy, (2) variation of foliage photosynthetic capacity with canopy depth, (3) wind speed attenuation throughout the canopy, and (4) rainfall interception by foliage elements. The soil module uses principles of the diffusion theory to predict temperature and moisture dynamics within the soil column, evaporation, and CO 2 efflux from soil. The effect of soil heterogeneity on field-scale fluxes is simulated employing the Bresler-Dagan stochastic concept. The accumulation and melt of snow on the ground is predicted using an explicit energy balance approach. Ozone deposition is modeled as a sum of three fluxes- ozone uptake via plant stomata, deposition to non-transpiring plant surfaces, and ozone flux into the ground. All biophysical interactions are computed hourly while model projections are made at either hourly or daily time step. FORFLUX represents a comprehensive approach to studying ozone deposition and its link to carbon and water cycles in terrestrial ecosystems

  18. Implementing ecosystem-based marine management as a process of regionalisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hegland, Troels Jacob; Raakjær, Jesper; van Tatenhove, Jan

    2015-01-01

    and the Baltic Sea Fisheries Forum, both examples of regionalisation processes in order to implement ecosystem-based marine management. The Helsinki Commission Group for implementation of the ecosystem approach is a joint management body for the implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan and the European Union......This article deals with the implementation of ecosystem-based marine management in the Baltic Sea. It explores and documents in particular the preliminary lessons from environmental and fisheries management with reference to the Helsinki Commission Group for implementation of the ecosystem approach......'s Marine Strategy Framework Directive. The Baltic Sea Fisheries Forum is a new governing body to facilitate regional cooperation in fisheries management. The aim of the article is twofold: a) to describe and discuss two different pathways of regionalisation in the Baltic Sea and b) to explore how...

  19. Modelling carbon and water flows in terrestrial ecosystems in the boreal zone - examples from Oskarshamn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlberg, Louise [Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm (Sweden); Gu stafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik [Royal Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Land and Water Resources Engineering, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2007-12-15

    Carbon budgets and mean residence times were estimated in four hypothetical ecosystems. The greatest uncertainties in the estimations lie in the calculation of fluxes to and from the field layer. A parametrisation method based on multiple criteria, synthesising a wide range of empirical knowledge on ecosystem behaviour, proved to be useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, to demonstrate model sensitivity, and to identify processes where our current knowledge is limited. The parameterizations derived from the study of the hypothetical systems were used to estimate site-specific carbon and water budgets for four ecosystems located within the Oskarshamn study-area. Measured soil respiration was used to calibrate the simulations. An analysis of the simulated carbon fluxes indicated that two of the ecosystems, namely the grassland and the spruce forest, were net sources of carbon dioxide, while the alder and the pine forest were net sinks of CO{sub 2}. In the former case, this was interpreted as a result of recent drainage of the organogenic soils and the concurrent increase in decomposition. The results from the study conformed rather well with results from a previous study on carbon budgets from the Oskarshamn study area.

  20. Modelling carbon and water flows in terrestrial ecosystems in the boreal zone - examples from Oskarshamn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Louise; Gu stafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik

    2007-12-01

    Carbon budgets and mean residence times were estimated in four hypothetical ecosystems. The greatest uncertainties in the estimations lie in the calculation of fluxes to and from the field layer. A parametrisation method based on multiple criteria, synthesising a wide range of empirical knowledge on ecosystem behaviour, proved to be useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, to demonstrate model sensitivity, and to identify processes where our current knowledge is limited. The parameterizations derived from the study of the hypothetical systems were used to estimate site-specific carbon and water budgets for four ecosystems located within the Oskarshamn study-area. Measured soil respiration was used to calibrate the simulations. An analysis of the simulated carbon fluxes indicated that two of the ecosystems, namely the grassland and the spruce forest, were net sources of carbon dioxide, while the alder and the pine forest were net sinks of CO 2 . In the former case, this was interpreted as a result of recent drainage of the organogenic soils and the concurrent increase in decomposition. The results from the study conformed rather well with results from a previous study on carbon budgets from the Oskarshamn study area

  1. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) as a model system in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowker, Matthew A.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David; Belnap, Jayne; Castillo-Monroy, Andrea; Escolar, Cristina; Soliveres, Santiago

    2014-01-01

    Model systems have had a profound influence on the development of ecological theory and general principles. Compared to alternatives, the most effective models share some combination of the following characteristics: simpler, smaller, faster, general, idiosyncratic or manipulable. We argue that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) have unique combinations of these features that should be more widely exploited in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology. In community ecology, biocrusts are elucidating the importance of biodiversity and spatial pattern for maintaining ecosystem multifunctionality due to their manipulability in experiments. Due to idiosyncrasies in their modes of facilitation and competition, biocrusts have led to new models on the interplay between environmental stress and biotic interactions and on the maintenance of biodiversity by competitive processes. Biocrusts are perhaps one of the best examples of micro-landscapes—real landscapes that are small in size. Although they exhibit varying patch heterogeneity, aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation, like macro-landscapes, they are also compatible with well-replicated experiments (unlike macro-landscapes). In ecosystem ecology, a number of studies are imposing small-scale, low cost manipulations of global change or state factors in biocrust micro-landscapes. The versatility of biocrusts to inform such disparate lines of inquiry suggests that they are an especially useful model system that can enable researchers to see ecological principles more clearly and quickly.

  2. 14C Carbofuran residue in rice-fish ecosystem model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumatra, M.; Soekarna, D.; Suhanda; Kuswadi, A.N.

    1988-01-01

    14-C-carbofuran in the form of 14-C-Furada 3G was applied with doses of 0, 2, and 4 g/m2 to a rice-fish ecosystem model consisting of water, soil, rice, plant, and fish (Cyprinus carpio) in tanks of the size 1 m length, 1 m width, and 0.5 m depth. 14-C-carbofuran was released from 14-C-Furadan 3G, entered into the water, absorbed by plant root, and then distributed into the whole plant. A part of the 14-C-carbofuran was absorbed and retained by soil. In both doses of 4 and 2 g/m2, the 14-C-Furadan 3G was toxic to Cyprinus carpio under this experiment condition. (author). 5 refs, 5 figs, 6 tabs

  3. A model using marginal efficiency of investment to analyse carbon and nitrogen interactions in forested ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, R. Q.; Williams, M.

    2014-12-01

    Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles are coupled in terrestrial ecosystems through multiple processes including photosynthesis, tissue allocation, respiration, N fixation, N uptake, and decomposition of litter and soil organic matter. Capturing the constraint of N on terrestrial C uptake and storage has been a focus of the Earth System modelling community. Here we explore the trade-offs and sensitivities of allocating C and N to different tissues in order to optimize the productivity of plants using a new, simple model of ecosystem C-N cycling and interactions (ACONITE). ACONITE builds on theory related to plant economics in order to predict key ecosystem properties (leaf area index, leaf C:N, N fixation, and plant C use efficiency) based on the optimization of the marginal change in net C or N uptake associated with a change in allocation of C or N to plant tissues. We simulated and evaluated steady-state and transient ecosystem stocks and fluxes in three different forest ecosystems types (tropical evergreen, temperate deciduous, and temperate evergreen). Leaf C:N differed among the three ecosystem types (temperate deciduous database describing plant traits. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) estimates compared well to observed fluxes at the simulation sites. A sensitivity analysis revealed that parameterization of the relationship between leaf N and leaf respiration had the largest influence on leaf area index and leaf C:N. Also, a widely used linear leaf N-respiration relationship did not yield a realistic leaf C:N, while a more recently reported non-linear relationship simulated leaf C:N that compared better to the global trait database than the linear relationship. Overall, our ability to constrain leaf area index and allow spatially and temporally variable leaf C:N can help address challenges simulating these properties in ecosystem and Earth System models. Furthermore, the simple approach with emergent properties based on

  4. Aerospace Materials Process Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-08-01

    Cooling Transformation diagram ( CCT diagram ) When a IT diagram is used in the heat process modelling, we suppose that a sudden cooling (instantaneous...processes. CE, chooses instead to study thermo-mechanical properties referring to a CCT diagram . This is thinked to be more reliable to give a true...k , mm-_____sml l ml A I 1 III 12.4 This determination is however based on the following approximations: i) A CCT diagram is valid only for the

  5. Technical Report: Investigation of Carbon Cycle Processes within a Managed Landscape: An Ecosystem Manipulation and Isotope Tracer Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Griffis, Timothy J; Baker, John M; Billmark, Kaycie

    2009-06-01

    The goal of this research is to provide a better scientific understanding of carbon cycle processes within an agricultural landscape characteristic of the Upper Midwest. This project recognizes the need to study processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales to reduce uncertainty in ecosystem and landscape-scale carbon budgets to provide a sound basis for shaping future policy related to carbon management. Specifically, this project has attempted to answer the following questions: 1. Would the use of cover crops result in a shift from carbon neutral to significant carbon gain in corn-soybean rotation ecosystems of the Upper Midwest? 2. Can stable carbon isotope analyses be used to partition ecosystem respiration into its autotrophic and heterotrophic components? 3. Can this partitioning be used to better understand the fate of crop residues to project changes in the soil carbon reservoir? 4. Are agricultural ecosystems of the Upper Midwest carbon neutral, sinks, or sources? Can the proposed measurement and modeling framework help address landscape-scale carbon budget uncertainties and help guide future carbon management policy?

  6. Modelling Potential Consequences of Different Geo-Engineering Treatments for the Baltic Sea Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schrum, C.; Daewel, U.

    2017-12-01

    From 1950 onwards, the Baltic Sea ecosystem suffered increasingly from eutrophication. The most obvious reason for the eutrophication is the huge amount of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) reaching the Baltic Sea from human activities. However, although nutrient loads have been decreasing since 1980, the hypoxic areas have not decreased accordingly. Thus, geo-engineering projects were discussed and evaluated to artificially ventilate the Baltic Sea deep water and suppress nutrient release from the sediments. Here, we aim at understanding the consequences of proposed geo-engineering projects in the Baltic Sea using long-term scenario modelling. For that purpose, we utilize a 3d coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO E2E, a novel NPZD-Fish model approach that resolves hydrodynamics, biogeochemical cycling and lower and higher trophic level dynamics. We performed scenario modelling that consider proposed geo-engineering projects such as artificial ventilation of Baltic Sea deep waters and phosphorus binding in sediments with polyaluminium chlorides. The model indicates that deep-water ventilation indeed suppresses phosphorus release in the first 1-4 years of treatment. Thereafter macrobenthos repopulates the formerly anoxic bottom regions and nutrients are increasingly recycled in the food web. Consequently, overall system productivity and fish biomass increases and toxic algae blooms decrease. However, deep-water ventilation has no long-lasting effect on the ecosystem: soon after completion of the ventilation process, the system turns back into its original state. Artificial phosphorus binding in sediments in contrast decreases overall ecosystem productivity through permanent removal of phosphorus. As expected it decreases bacterial production and toxic algae blooms, but it also decreases fish production substantially. Contrastingly to deep water ventilation, artificial phosphorus binding show a long-lasting effect over decades after termination of the treatment.

  7. Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lladó, Salvador; López-Mondéjar, Rubén; Baldrian, Petr

    2017-06-01

    The ecology of forest soils is an important field of research due to the role of forests as carbon sinks. Consequently, a significant amount of information has been accumulated concerning their ecology, especially for temperate and boreal forests. Although most studies have focused on fungi, forest soil bacteria also play important roles in this environment. In forest soils, bacteria inhabit multiple habitats with specific properties, including bulk soil, rhizosphere, litter, and deadwood habitats, where their communities are shaped by nutrient availability and biotic interactions. Bacteria contribute to a range of essential soil processes involved in the cycling of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. They take part in the decomposition of dead plant biomass and are highly important for the decomposition of dead fungal mycelia. In rhizospheres of forest trees, bacteria interact with plant roots and mycorrhizal fungi as commensalists or mycorrhiza helpers. Bacteria also mediate multiple critical steps in the nitrogen cycle, including N fixation. Bacterial communities in forest soils respond to the effects of global change, such as climate warming, increased levels of carbon dioxide, or anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This response, however, often reflects the specificities of each studied forest ecosystem, and it is still impossible to fully incorporate bacteria into predictive models. The understanding of bacterial ecology in forest soils has advanced dramatically in recent years, but it is still incomplete. The exact extent of the contribution of bacteria to forest ecosystem processes will be recognized only in the future, when the activities of all soil community members are studied simultaneously. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  8. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern; Andersson, Eva

    2008-11-01

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  9. Business Model Process Configurations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taran, Yariv; Nielsen, Christian; Thomsen, Peter

    2015-01-01

    , by developing (inductively) an ontological classification framework, in view of the BM process configurations typology developed. Design/methodology/approach – Given the inconsistencies found in the business model studies (e.g. definitions, configurations, classifications) we adopted the analytical induction...

  10. Potential Applications of Gosat Based Carbon Budget Products to Refine Terrestrial Ecosystem Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondo, M.; Ichii, K.

    2011-12-01

    Estimation of carbon exchange in terrestrial ecosystem associates with difficulties due to complex entanglement of physical and biological processes: thus, the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) estimated from simulation often differs among process-based terrestrial ecosystem models. In addition to complexity of the system, validation can only be conducted in a point scale since reliable observation is only available from ground observations. With a lack of large spatial data, extension of model simulation to a global scale results in significant uncertainty in the future carbon balance and climate change. Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), launched by the Japanese space agency (JAXA) in January, 2009, is the 1st operational satellite promised to deliver the net land-atmosphere carbon budget to the terrestrial biosphere research community. Using that information, the model reproducibility of carbon budget is expected to improve: hence, gives a better estimation of the future climate change. This initial analysis is to seek and evaluate the potential applications of GOSAT observation toward the sophistication of terrestrial ecosystem model. The present study was conducted in two processes: site-based analysis using eddy covariance observation data to assess the potential use of terrestrial carbon fluxes (GPP, RE, and NEP) to refine the model, and extension of the point scale analysis to spatial using Carbon Tracker product as a prototype of GOSAT product. In the first phase of the experiment, it was verified that an optimization routine adapted to a terrestrial model, Biome-BGC, yielded the improved result with respect to eddy covariance observation data from AsiaFlux Network. Spatial data sets used in the second phase were consists of GPP from empirical algorithm (e.g. support vector machine), NEP from Carbon Tracker, and RE from the combination of these. These spatial carbon flux estimations was used to refine the model applying the exactly same

  11. Marine ecosystem acoustics (MEA): Quantifying processes in the sea at the spatio-temporal scales on which they occur

    KAUST Repository

    Godøl, Olav Rune

    2014-07-22

    Sustainable management of fisheries resources requires quantitative knowledge and understanding of species distribution, abundance, and productivity-determining processes. Conventional sampling by physical capture is inconsistent with the spatial and temporal scales on which many of these processes occur. In contrast, acoustic observations can be obtained on spatial scales from centimetres to ocean basins, and temporal scales from seconds to seasons. The concept of marine ecosystem acoustics (MEA) is founded on the basic capability of acoustics to detect, classify, and quantify organisms and biological and physical heterogeneities in the water column. Acoustics observations integrate operational technologies, platforms, and models and can generate information by taxon at the relevant scales. The gaps between single-species assessment and ecosystem-based management, as well as between fisheries oceanography and ecology, are thereby bridged. The MEA concept combines state-of-the-art acoustic technology with advanced operational capabilities and tailored modelling integrated into a flexible tool for ecosystem research and monitoring. Case studies are presented to illustrate application of the MEA concept in quantification of biophysical coupling, patchiness of organisms, predator-prey interactions, and fish stock recruitment processes. Widespread implementation of MEA will have a large impact on marine monitoring and assessment practices and it is to be hoped that they also promote and facilitate interaction among disciplines within the marine sciences.

  12. Testing the performance of a Dynamic Global Ecosystem Model: Water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharik, Christopher J.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Delire, Christine; Fisher, Veronica A.; Coe, Michael T.; Lenters, John D.; Young-Molling, Christine; Ramankutty, Navin; Norman, John M.; Gower, Stith T.

    2000-09-01

    While a new class of Dynamic Global Ecosystem Models (DGEMs) has emerged in the past few years as an important tool for describing global biogeochemical cycles and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, these models are still largely untested. Here we analyze the behavior of a new DGEM and compare the results to global-scale observations of water balance, carbon balance, and vegetation structure. In this study, we use version 2 of the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), which includes several major improvements and additions to the prototype model developed by Foley et al. [1996]. IBIS is designed to be a comprehensive model of the terrestrial biosphere; the model represents a wide range of processes, including land surface physics, canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics and competition, and carbon and nutrient cycling. The model generates global simulations of the surface water balance (e.g., runoff), the terrestrial carbon balance (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem exchange, soil carbon, aboveground and belowground litter, and soil CO2 fluxes), and vegetation structure (e.g., biomass, leaf area index, and vegetation composition). In order to test the performance of the model, we have assembled a wide range of continental and global-scale data, including measurements of river discharge, net primary production, vegetation structure, root biomass, soil carbon, litter carbon, and soil CO2 flux. Using these field data and model results for the contemporary biosphere (1965-1994), our evaluation shows that simulated patterns of runoff, NPP, biomass, leaf area index, soil carbon, and total soil CO2 flux agree reasonably well with measurements that have been compiled from numerous ecosystems. These results also compare favorably to other global model results.

  13. Asymmetrical Responses of Ecosystem Processes to Positive Versus Negative Precipitation Extremes: a Replicated Regression Experimental Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, A. J.; Smith, M. D.

    2016-12-01

    Heightened climatic variability due to atmospheric warming is forecast to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes. In particular, changes to interannual variability in precipitation, characterized by increases in extreme wet and dry years, are likely to impact virtually all terrestrial ecosystem processes. However, to date experimental approaches have yet to explicitly test how ecosystem processes respond to multiple levels of climatic extremity, limiting our understanding of how ecosystems will respond to forecast increases in the magnitude of climate extremes. Here we report the results of a replicated regression experimental approach, in which we imposed 9 and 11 levels of growing season precipitation amount and extremity in mesic grassland during 2015 and 2016, respectively. Each level corresponded to a specific percentile of the long-term record, which produced a large gradient of soil moisture conditions that ranged from extreme wet to extreme dry. In both 2015 and 2016, asymptotic responses to water availability were observed for soil respiration. This asymmetry was driven in part by transitions between soil moisture versus temperature constraints on respiration as conditions became increasingly dry versus increasingly wet. In 2015, aboveground net primary production (ANPP) exhibited asymmetric responses to precipitation that largely mirrored those of soil respiration. In total, our results suggest that in this mesic ecosystem, these two carbon cycle processes were more sensitive to extreme drought than to extreme wet years. Future work will assess ANPP responses for 2016, soil nutrient supply and physiological responses of the dominant plant species. Future efforts are needed to compare our findings across a diverse array of ecosystem types, and in particular how the timing and magnitude of precipitation events may modify the response of ecosystem processes to increasing magnitudes of precipitation extremes.

  14. Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva; Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten; Sohlenius, Gustav; Loefgren, Anders

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement

  15. Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: tobias.lindborg@skb.se; Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Marine Sciences Centre, Umeaa (Sweden); Stroemgren, Maarten [Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden); Sohlenius, Gustav [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)] Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.

  16. Ecosystem-based fishery management: a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Thanh Viet

      An ecosystem approach means different things to different people. As a result the concept of ecosystem-based fishery management is evolving and it has no universal definition or consistent application. As regards ecosystem modeling, most economic models of fishery ignore the linkages to lower...... trophic levels. In particular, environmental data and other bottom-up information is widely disregarded. The objective of this paper is to provide a critical review of concepts and ecological economic models relating to ecosystem-based fishery management....

  17. A Conceptual Model of Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers and Their Influence on the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Cummins, Kenneth W; Highsmith, Raymond C; Hilborn, Ray; McRoy, C Peter; Parrish, Julia; Weingartner, Thomas

    2010-07-01

    Prince William Sound (PWS) is a semi-enclosed fjord estuary on the coast of Alaska adjoining the northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA). PWS is highly productive and diverse, with primary productivity strongly coupled to nutrient dynamics driven by variability in the climate and oceanography of the GOA and North Pacific Ocean. The pelagic and nearshore primary productivity supports a complex and diverse trophic structure, including large populations of forage and large fish that support many species of marine birds and mammals. High intra-annual, inter-annual, and interdecadal variability in climatic and oceanographic processes as drives high variability in the biological populations. A risk-based conceptual ecosystem model (CEM) is presented describing the natural processes, anthropogenic drivers, and resultant stressors that affect PWS, including stressors caused by the Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964 and the Exxon Valdez oil spill of 1989. A trophodynamic model incorporating PWS valued ecosystem components is integrated into the CEM. By representing the relative strengths of driver/stressors/effects, the CEM graphically demonstrates the fundamental dynamics of the PWS ecosystem, the natural forces that control the ecological condition of the Sound, and the relative contribution of natural processes and human activities to the health of the ecosystem. The CEM illustrates the dominance of natural processes in shaping the structure and functioning of the GOA and PWS ecosystems.

  18. Human radiation dose resulting from forests contaminated by radionuclides: generic model and applications to the Chernobyl ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, I.; Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    Forest ecosystems have been found to contribute significantly to the human radiation dose in the intermediate and long teens following radionuclide releases. Evaluation of the internal and external radiation dose for these critical population groups requires knowledge of radionuclide transport processes in forest ecosystems, as well as the extent of forest utilization by these populations. The high complexity of the problem requires the use of models to define and analyze the properties of the forest as well as to evaluate the ecosystem response to possible human intervention. A generic FORESTPATH model is used to calculate the internal and external radiation doses for different critical groups of consumers at different times following radionuclide release. The model is tested using the information available for contaminated forests in Belarus. Uncertainty of the model predictions are estimated by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. (author)

  19. Modelling Pseudocalanus elongatus stage-structured population dynamics embedded in a water column ecosystem model for the northern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moll, Andreas; Stegert, Christoph

    2007-01-01

    This paper outlines an approach to couple a structured zooplankton population model with state variables for eggs, nauplii, two copepodites stages and adults adapted to Pseudocalanus elongatus into the complex marine ecosystem model ECOHAM2 with 13 state variables resolving the carbon and nitrogen cycle. Different temperature and food scenarios derived from laboratory culture studies were examined to improve the process parameterisation for copepod stage dependent development processes. To study annual cycles under realistic weather and hydrographic conditions, the coupled ecosystem-zooplankton model is applied to a water column in the northern North Sea. The main ecosystem state variables were validated against observed monthly mean values. Then vertical profiles of selected state variables were compared to the physical forcing to study differences between zooplankton as one biomass state variable or partitioned into five population state variables. Simulated generation times are more affected by temperature than food conditions except during the spring phytoplankton bloom. Up to six generations within the annual cycle can be discerned in the simulation.

  20. Armillaria species: Primary drivers of forest ecosystem processes and potential impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ned B. Klopfenstein; Mee-Sook Kim; John W. Hanna; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Sara M. Ashiglar; Geral I. McDonald

    2012-01-01

    Species of the fungal genus Armillaria are pervasive in forest soils and are associated with widely ranging tree species of diverse forests worldwide (Baumgartner et al., 2011). As primary decay drivers of ecosystem processes, Armillaria species exhibit diverse ecological behaviors, ranging from virulent root and/or butt pathogens of diverse woody hosts, such as timber...

  1. Climatic and pollution influences on ecosystem processes in northern hardwood forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt S. Pregitzer; David D. Reed; Glenn D. Mroz; Andrew J. Burton; John A. Witter; Donald A. Zak

    1996-01-01

    The Michigan gradient study was established in 1987 to examine the effects of climate and atmospheric deposition on forest productivity and ecosystem processes in the Great Lakes region. Four intensively-monitored northern hardwood study sites are located along a climatic and pollutant gradient extending from southern lower Michigan to northwestern upper Michigan. The...

  2. Nitrogen processing in a tidal freshwater marsh: a whole ecosystem 15N labeling study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gribsholt, B.; Boschker, H.T.S.; Struyf, E.; Andersson, M.G.I.; Tramper, A.; de Brabandere, L.; van Damme, S.; Brion, N.; Meire, P.; Dehairs, F.; Middelburg, J.J.; Heip, C.H.R.

    2005-01-01

    We quantified the fate and transport of watershed-derived ammonium in a tidal freshwater marsh fringing the nutrientrich Scheldt River in a whole-ecosystem 15N labeling experiment. 15N-NH4+ was added to the floodwater entering a 3,477 14 m2 tidal marsh area, and marsh ammonium processing and

  3. Applications of the First Law to Ecological Systems. Physical Processes in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems, Thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, R. D.

    These materials were designed to be used by life science students for instruction in the application of physical theory to ecosystem operation. Most modules contain computer programs which are built around a particular application of a physical process. This report describes concepts presented in another module called "The First Law of…

  4. What determines the importance of a species for ecosystem processes? Insights from tropical ant assemblages

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houadria, Mickal; Menzel, F.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 184, č. 4 (2017), s. 885-899 ISSN 0029-8549 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : ecosystem processes * functional performance * functional redundancy Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 3.130, year: 2016 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00442-017-3900-x

  5. Linking trajectories of land change, land degradation processes and ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smiraglia, D.; Ceccarelli, T.; Bajocco, S.; Salvati, L.; Perini, L.

    2016-01-01

    Land Degradation (LD) is a complex phenomenon resulting in a progressive reduction in the capacity of providing ecosystem services (ES). Landscape transformations promoting an unsustainable use of land often reveal latent processes of LD. An evaluation carried out in respect to the different

  6. Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Teixeira Duarte

    Full Text Available Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention

  7. Ecosystem Services Modeling as a Tool for Defining Priority Areas for Conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Gabriela Teixeira; Ribeiro, Milton Cezar; Paglia, Adriano Pereira

    2016-01-01

    Conservationists often have difficulty obtaining financial and social support for protected areas that do not demonstrate their benefits for society. Therefore, ecosystem services have gained importance in conservation science in the last decade, as these services provide further justification for appropriate management and conservation of natural systems. We used InVEST software and a set of GIS procedures to quantify, spatialize and evaluated the overlap between ecosystem services-carbon stock and sediment retention-and a biodiversity proxy-habitat quality. In addition, we proposed a method that serves as an initial approach of a priority areas selection process. The method considers the synergism between ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation. Our study region is the Iron Quadrangle, an important Brazilian mining province and a conservation priority area located in the interface of two biodiversity hotspots, the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes. The resultant priority area for the maintenance of the highest values of ecosystem services and habitat quality was about 13% of the study area. Among those priority areas, 30% are already within established strictly protected areas, and 12% are in sustainable use protected areas. Following the transparent and highly replicable method we proposed in this study, conservation planners can better determine which areas fulfill multiple goals and can locate the trade-offs in the landscape. We also gave a step towards the improvement of the habitat quality model with a topography parameter. In areas of very rugged topography, we have to consider geomorfometric barriers for anthropogenic impacts and for species movement and we must think beyond the linear distances. Moreover, we used a model that considers the tree mortality caused by edge effects in the estimation of carbon stock. We found low spatial congruence among the modeled services, mostly because of the pattern of sediment retention distribution.

  8. Linking genes to ecosystem trace gas fluxes in a large-scale model system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, L. K.; Cueva, A.; Volkmann, T. H. M.; Sengupta, A.; Troch, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Soil microorganisms mediate biogeochemical cycles through biosphere-atmosphere gas exchange with significant impact on atmospheric trace gas composition. Improving process-based understanding of these microbial populations and linking their genomic potential to the ecosystem-scale is a challenge, particularly in soil systems, which are heterogeneous in biodiversity, chemistry, and structure. In oligotrophic systems, such as the Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO) at Biosphere 2, atmospheric trace gas scavenging may supply critical metabolic needs to microbial communities, thereby promoting tight linkages between microbial genomics and trace gas utilization. This large-scale model system of three initially homogenous and highly instrumented hillslopes facilitates high temporal resolution characterization of subsurface trace gas fluxes at hundreds of sampling points, making LEO an ideal location to study microbe-mediated trace gas fluxes from the gene to ecosystem scales. Specifically, we focus on the metabolism of ubiquitous atmospheric reduced trace gases hydrogen (H2), carbon monoxide (CO), and methane (CH4), which may have wide-reaching impacts on microbial community establishment, survival, and function. Additionally, microbial activity on LEO may facilitate weathering of the basalt matrix, which can be studied with trace gas measurements of carbonyl sulfide (COS/OCS) and carbon dioxide (O-isotopes in CO2), and presents an additional opportunity for gene to ecosystem study. This work will present initial measurements of this suite of trace gases to characterize soil microbial metabolic activity, as well as links between spatial and temporal variability of microbe-mediated trace gas fluxes in LEO and their relation to genomic-based characterization of microbial community structure (phylogenetic amplicons) and genetic potential (metagenomics). Results from the LEO model system will help build understanding of the importance of atmospheric inputs to

  9. Biotic and abiotic processes in eastside ecosystems: the effects of management on soil properties, processes, and productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alan E. Harvey; J. Michael Geist; Gerald L McDonald; Martin F. Jurgensen; Patrick H. Cochran; Darlene Zabowski; Robert T. Meurisse

    1994-01-01

    Productivity of forest and range land soils is based on a combination of diverse physical, chemical and biological properties. In ecosystems characteristic of eastside regions of Oregon and Washington, the productive zone is usually in the upper 1 or 2 m. Not only are the biological processes that drive both soil productivity and root development concentrated in...

  10. Business process model repositories : efficient process retrieval

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Z.

    2012-01-01

    As organizations increasingly work in process-oriented manner, the number of business process models that they develop and have to maintain increases. As a consequence, it has become common for organizations to have collections of hundreds or even thousands of business process models. When a

  11. An integrated model of soil, hydrology, and vegetation for carbon dynamics in wetland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu Zhang; Changsheng Li; Carl C. Trettin; Harbin Li; Ge Sun

    2002-01-01

    Wetland ecosystems are an important component in global carbon (C) cycles and may exert a large influence on global clinlate change. Predictions of C dynamics require us to consider interactions among many critical factors of soil, hydrology, and vegetation. However, few such integrated C models exist for wetland ecosystems. In this paper, we report a simulation model...

  12. Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, A.B.G.; Gerla, D.J.

    2015-01-01

    Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality

  13. Parasites as drivers of key processes in aquatic ecosystems: Facts and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sures, B; Nachev, M; Pahl, M; Grabner, D; Selbach, C

    2017-09-01

    Despite the advances in our understanding of the ecological importance of parasites that we have made in recent years, we are still far away from having a complete picture of the ecological implications connected to parasitism. In the present paper we highlight key issues that illustrate (1) important contributions of parasites to biodiversity, (2) their integral role in ecosystems, (3) as well as their ecological effects as keystone species (4) and in biological invasion processes. By using selected examples from aquatic ecosystems we want to provide an insight and generate interest into the topic, and want to show directions for future research in the field of ecological parasitology. This may help to convince more parasitologists and ecologists contributing and advancing our understanding of the complex and fascinating interplay of parasites, hosts and ecosystems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Combined global change effects on ecosystem processes in nine U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melannie D. Hartman; Jill S. Baron; Holly A. Ewing; Kathleen C. Weathers; Chelcy Miniat

    2014-01-01

    Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) affect ecosystems in complex ways. The DayCent-Chem model was used to investigate the combined effects of these human-caused drivers of change over the period 1980–2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds...

  15. Influence of forest planning alternatives on landscape pattern and ecosystem processes in northern Wisconsin, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick A. Zollner; L. Jay Roberts; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He; Volker Radeloff

    2008-01-01

    Incorporating an ecosystem management perspective into forest planning requires consideration of the impacts of timber management on a suite of landscape characteristics at broad spatial and long temporal scales. We used the LANDIS forest landscape simulation model to predict forest composition and landscape pattern under seven alternative forest management plans...

  16. The limnic ecosystems at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norden, Sara; Soederbaeck, Bjoern [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Andersson, Eva [SWECO, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2008-11-15

    The overall objective of this report is to provide a thorough description of the limnic ecosystems at both Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. This information may be used in the Safety Assessment and as a basis for the Environmental Impact Assessment. Three aims were set up for the report: 1) to characterize and describe the limnic ecosystems today and in the past in the Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp areas and compare these ecosystems with limnic ecosystems in other areas; 2) to evaluate and visualize major pools, fluxes and sinks of elements within the limnic ecosystems; and finally 3) to describe human impact on the limnic ecosystems. The report includes a thorough description of the lakes and streams in Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp and covers the following areas: catchment area characteristics, hydrology, climate, sediment characteristics, physical characteristics of streams, habitat distribution in lakes, biotic components, water chemistry, comparisons with other lakes and streams in the region, and a historical description. Ecosystem models for carbon and mass balances for a number of elements have been calculated to further improve the understanding of the lake ecosystems. Important processes for the safety assessment are described and evaluated in the report. The Forsmark regional model area contains more than 20 permanent lakes and pools. All lakes are small and shallow, and are characterized as oligotrophic hardwater lakes. Calcareous soils in the area give rise to high calcium concentrations in the surface water, which in turn leads to high pH and low nutrient concentrations in water as phosphorus often co-precipitates with calcium. The shallow depths and moderate water colour permit photosynthesis in the entire benthic habitat of the lakes, and the bottoms are covered by dense stands of the macroalgae Chara sp. Moreover, many of the lakes also have a thick microbial mat (>10 cm), consisting of cyanobacteria and diatoms, in the benthic habitat. Fish in

  17. Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  18. Water and Nitrogen Limitations of Ecosystem Processes Across Three Dryland Plant Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltz, C.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Burke, I. C.

    2017-12-01

    The availability of water and nitrogen (N) play a major role in controlling the distribution of ecosystem types and the rates of ecosystem processes across the globe. Both these resources are being altered by human activity. Anthropogenic fixation of N has increased inputs into the biosphere from 0.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1 to upwards of 10 kg N ha-1 yr-1, while the amount and seasonality of precipitation are expected to continue to change. Within dryland environments, the relationships between increasingly available N and ecosystem processes are especially complex due to dryland's characteristic strong limitation by low and highly variable precipitation. Other experiments have shown that this interplay between N and water can cause temporally complex co-limitation and spatially complex responses with variable effects on ecosystems, such as those to net primary productivity, soil respiration, and plant community composition. Research spanning multiple dryland plant communities is critical for generalizing findings to the 40% of the Earth's terrestrial surface covered in dryland ecosystems. Given IPCC projections in which both N availability and precipitation are altered, examining their interactive effect across multiple plant communities is critical to increasing our understanding of the limitations to ecosystem process in drylands. We are studying a gradient of three plant communities representing a C4 grassland (shortgrass steppe), a C3/C4 grassland (mixed grass prairie), and a shrub-dominated ecosystem with C3 and C4 grasses (sagebrush steppe). We added two levels of N (10 kg N ha-1 and 100 kg N ha-1) and increased summer monthly precipitation by 20%. Sites responded differently to treatments, with the scale of effect varying by treatment. The high-level nitrogen increased soil N availability and soil respiration, while decreasing soil carbon in the labile pool in the upper soil layers. These results will allow for better understanding of increased N in combination with

  19. Process model repositories and PNML

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hee, van K.M.; Post, R.D.J.; Somers, L.J.A.M.; Werf, van der J.M.E.M.; Kindler, E.

    2004-01-01

    Bringing system and process models together in repositories facilitates the interchange of model information between modelling tools, and allows the combination and interlinking of complementary models. Petriweb is a web application for managing such repositories. It supports hierarchical process

  20. Ecosystem model of the entire Beaufort Sea marine ecosystem: a tool for assessing food-web structure and ecosystem changes from 1970 to 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suprenand, P. M.; Hoover, C.

    2016-02-01

    The Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem is approximately a 476,000 km2 area in the Arctic Ocean, which extends from -112.5 to -158° longitude to 67.5 to 75° latitude. Within this Arctic Ocean area the United States (Alaskan) indigenous communities of Barrow, Kaktovik, and Nuiqsut, and the Canadian (Northwest Territories) indigenous communities of Aklavik, Inuvik, Tuktoyaktuk, Paulatuk, Ulukhaktok, and Sachs Harbour, subsist by harvesting marine mammals, fish, and invertebrates from the Beaufort Sea to provide the majority of their community foods annually. The ecosystem in which the indigenous communities harvest is considered a polar habitat that includes many specialized species, such as polar bears that rely on sea-ice for foraging activities and denning, or ice algae that are attached to the cryosphere. However, the polar habitat has been experiencing a diminishing sea-ice extent, age, and seasonal duration, with concomitant increases in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), since the 1970s. Changes in sea-ice and SST have consequences to the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem, which includes animal habitat losses, alterations to trophodynamics, and impacts to subsistence community harvesting. The present study was aimed at capturing trophodynamic changes in the Beaufort Sea coastal-marine ecosystem from 1970 to 2014 using a fitted spatial-temporal model (Ecopath with Ecosim and Ecospace) that utilizes forcing and mediation functions to describe animal/trophodynamic relationships with sea-ice and sea surface temperature, as well as individual community harvesting efforts. Model outputs reveals similar trends in animals population changes (e.g., increasing bowhead whale stock), changes in apex predator diets (e.g., polar bears eating less ringed seal), and changes in animal distributions (e.g., polar bears remaining closer to land over time). The Beaufort Sea model is a dynamic tool for Arctic Ocean natural resource management in the years to come.

  1. 'Ecological value added' in an integrated ecosystem-economy model. An indicator for sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kratena, Kurt

    2004-01-01

    This paper sets up an input-output system of the relevant ecosystem flows that determine the carbon cycle in the global ecosystem. Introducing energy as the value added component in the ecosystem allows to calculate ecosystem prices expressed in 'energy values'. Linking the ecosystem with the economy in an integrated input-output model then allows to calculate prices of economic activities and of ecosystem activities. In analogy to the 'Ecological Footprint', where productive land is needed to absorb anthropogenic emissions, in this integrated input-output model additional carbon sinks are introduced for emission absorption. These carbon sinks need solar energy input, i.e. 'ecological value added'. Emission absorption as well as GDP therefore become activities valued in the numeraire of the integrated system, i.e.'energy values'. From that sustainability indicators can be derived

  2. Modeling impacts of climate change on carbon dynamics in a steppe ecosystem in Inner Mongolia, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Xiaoming; Wang, Jinzhi; Rui, Yichao; Niu, Haishan [Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). College of Resources and Environment; Hao, Yanbin; Cui, Xiaoyong; Wang, Yanfen [Graduate Univ. of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). College of Life Sciences; Li, Changsheng [New Hampshire Univ., Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Ocean and Space

    2011-06-15

    Purpose: In this study, a process-oriented biogeochemistry model, denitrification-decomposition (DNDC), was employed and adapted to interpret and integrate the field observations that the tested ecosystem was a weak sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) in 2004 but a strong source in 2005 during the growing seasons. Then we applied the model to predict long-term impacts of climate change on carbon (C) dynamics in the semiarid grassland. Materials and methods: To adapt DNDC for the targeted grassland, we modified the default values of several grass parameters such as maximum biomass production, biomass partitions, plant tissue C/N ratio, and accumulative thermal degree days based on local observations. Daily weather data for 2004 and 2005 in conjunction with soil properties and management practices for the location were utilized as inputs to simulate the grass growth and soil C dynamics. The modeled C fluxes were compared with the eddy tower data. Sensitivity tests were conducted with a baseline and twelve alternative climate scenarios of 100 years for the target grassland. Results and discussion: The observed and modeled CO{sub 2} fluxes data were well in agreement (P < 0.0001), both showing that the grassland shifted from a sink to a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2} from a wet year (2004) to a dry year (2005) over growing season. Simulations of 100 years found that, under the fenced conditions, (1) the tested ecosystem would gain C with the baseline climate conditions at a rate of 200 kg C/ha/year; (2) the warmer and drier climate scenario made the worst case having the lowest grass production with 72 kg C/ha/year lost from the soil carbon pool; and (3) the cooler and wetter climate scenario made the best case having the highest biomass production with 790 kg C/ha/year sequestered in the soil during the simulated 100 years. Conclusions: DNDC model could be used for the prediction of C dynamics in this semiarid grassland ecosystem. Since the ecosystem

  3. From nitrogen enrichment to oxygen depletion: a mechanistic model of coastal marine ecosystems response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Koski, Marja; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    Nitrogen (N) emissions from anthropogenic sources may enrich coastal waters and lead to marine eutrophication impacts. Processes describing N-limited primary production (PP), zooplankton grazing, and bacterial respiration of sinking organic carbon, were modelled to quantify the potential dissolved...... oxygen (DO) consumption as a function of N input. Such indicator is the basis for an eXposure Factor (XF) applied in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) to estimate impacts from N enrichment. The Large Marine Ecosystems (LME) biogeographical classification system was adopted to address the spatial...

  4. Behavior of pyrophite shrubs in mediterranean terrestrial ecosystems (i): Population and reproductive model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usó-Doménech, Josep-Lluis; Nescolarde-Selva, Josué-Antonio; Lloret-Climent, Miguel; González-Franco, Lucía

    2018-03-01

    The mathematical submodel ULEX is used to study the dynamic behavior of the green, floral and woody biomass of the main pyrophite shrub species, the gorse (Ulex parviflorus Pourret), and its relationship with other shrub species, typical of a Mediterranean ecosystem. The focus are the ecological conditions of post-fire stage growth, and its efficacy as a protective cover against erosion processes in the short, medium and long term, both in normal conditions and at the limits of desertification conditions. The model sets a target to observe the behavior and to anticipate and consequently intervene with adequate protection, restoration and management measures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Assessment and Predictive Modelling in Eastern Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushwaha, S. P. S.; Nandy, S.; Ahmad, M.; Agarwal, R.

    2011-09-01

    This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM). The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975-1990 as well as 1990-2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975-1990 and 1990-2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97%) between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81%) during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05%) by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  6. FOREST ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTIVE MODELLING IN EASTERN HIMALAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. S. Kushwaha

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and predictive modelling deforestation and forest cover prediction in a part of north-eastern India i.e. forest areas along West Bengal, Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam border in Eastern Himalaya using temporal satellite imagery of 1975, 1990 and 2009 and predicted forest cover for the period 2028 using Cellular Automata Markov Modedel (CAMM. The exercise highlighted large-scale deforestation in the study area during 1975–1990 as well as 1990–2009 forest cover vectors. A net loss of 2,334.28 km2 forest cover was noticed between 1975 and 2009, and with current rate of deforestation, a forest area of 4,563.34 km2 will be lost by 2028. The annual rate of deforestation worked out to be 0.35 and 0.78% during 1975–1990 and 1990–2009 respectively. Bamboo forest increased by 24.98% between 1975 and 2009 due to opening up of the forests. Forests in Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Darrang, Sonitpur, and Dhemaji districts in Assam were noticed to be worst-affected while Lower Subansiri, West and East Siang, Dibang Valley, Lohit and Changlang in Arunachal Pradesh were severely affected. Among different forest types, the maximum loss was seen in case of sal forest (37.97% between 1975 and 2009 and is expected to deplete further to 60.39% by 2028. The tropical moist deciduous forest was the next category, which decreased from 5,208.11 km2 to 3,447.28 (33.81% during same period with further chances of depletion to 2,288.81 km2 (56.05% by 2028. It noted progressive loss of forests in the study area between 1975 and 2009 through 1990 and predicted that, unless checked, the area is in for further depletion of the invaluable climax forests in the region, especially sal and moist deciduous forests. The exercise demonstrated high potential of remote sensing and geographic information system for forest ecosystem dynamics assessment and the efficacy of CAMM to predict the forest cover change.

  7. Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

    2010-01-01

    Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response

  8. CCIEA data and model output - California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) is a joint project between staff at the NWFSC, SWFSC, NMML, ONMS, and WCRO to provide managers and...

  9. Changes in Arctic and Boreal ecosystems of North America: Integrating Recent Results from the Field, Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, S. J.; Rogers, B. M.; Mack, M. C.; Goulden, M.; Pastick, N. J.; Berner, L. T.; Fisher, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic and boreal forest biomes have global significance in terms of climate feedbacks associated with land surface interactions with the atmosphere. Changes in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystem productivity and fire disturbance feedbacks have been well documented in recent years, but findings are often only locally relevant and are sometimes inconsistent among research teams. Part of these inconsistencies lie in utilization of different data sets and time periods considered. Integrated approaches are thus needed to adequately address changes in these ecosystems in order to assess consistency and variability of change, as well as ecosystem vulnerability and resiliency across spatial and temporal scales. Ultimately this can best be accomplished via multiple lines of evidence including remote sensing, field measurements and various types of data-constrained models. We will discuss some recent results integrating multiple lines of evidence for directional ecosystem change in the Arctic and boreal forest biomes of North America. There is increasing evidence for widespread spatial and temporal variability in Arctic and boreal ecosystem productivity changes that are strongly influenced by cycles of changing fire disturbance severity and its longer-term implications (i.e legacy effects). Integrated, multi-approach research, like that currently underway as part of the NASA-led Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (above.nasa.gov), is an effective way to capture the complex mechanisms that drive patterns and directionality of ecosystem structure and function, and ultimately determine feedbacks to environmental change, particularly in the context of global climate change. Additional ongoing ABoVE research will improve our understanding of the consequences of environmental changes underway, as well as increase our confidence in making projections of the ecosystem responses, vulnerability and resilience to change. ABoVE will also build a lasting legacy of

  10. Modeling and validating tritium transfer in a grassland ecosystem in response to {sup 3}H releases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Dizes, S.; Maro, D.; Rozet, M.; Hebert, D.; Solier, L.; Nicoulaud, V. [Institut de radioportection et de surete nucleaire - IRSN (France); Vermorel, F.; Aulagnier, C. [Electricite de France - EDF (France)

    2014-07-01

    Tritium ({sup 3}H) is a major radionuclide released in several forms (HTO, HT) by nuclear facilities under normal operating conditions. In terrestrial ecosystems, tritium can be found under two forms: tritium in tissue free water (TFWT) following absorption of tritiated water by leaves or roots and Organically Bound Tritium (OBT) resulting from TFWT incorporation by the plant organic matter during photosynthesis. In order to study transfers of tritium from atmospheric releases to terrestrial ecosystem such as grasslands, an in-situ laboratory has been set up by IRSN on a ryegrass field plot located 2 km downwind the AREVA NC La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (North-West of France), as was done in the past for the assessment of transfer of radiocarbon in grasslands. The objectives of this experimental field are: (i) to better understand the OBT formation in plant by photosynthesis, (ii) to evaluate transfer processes of tritium in several forms (HT, HTO) from the atmosphere (air and rainwater) to grass and soil, (iii) to develop a modeling allowing to reproduce the dynamic response of the ecosystem to tritium atmospheric releases depending of variable environmental conditions. For this purpose, tritium activity measurements will be carried out in grass (monthly measurements of HTO, OBT), in air, rainwater, soil (daily measurements of HT, HTO) and CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O fluxes between soil and air compartments will be carried out. Then, the TOCATTA-c model previously developed to simulate {sup 14}C transfers to pasture on a hourly time-step basis will be adapted to take account for processes specific to tritium. The model will be tested by a comparison between simulated results and measurements. The objectives of this presentation are (1) to present the organization of the experimental design of the VATO study (Validation of TOCATTA) dedicated to transfers of tritium in a grassland ecosystem, (2) to document the major assumptions, conceptual modelling and

  11. The Limits of Acclimation of land plants in a Terrestrial Ecosystems Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothavala, Zavareh

    2014-05-01

    In this study, we examine the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle and the ability of different plant types to acclimate to a changing climate at the centennial scale using a global ecosystems model with updated biogeochemical processes related to moisture, carbon, and nitrogen. Elevated level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) increases CO2 fertilization, resulting in more CO2 uptake by vegetation, whereas the concomitant warming increases autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, releasing CO2 to the atmosphere. Additionally, warming will enhance photosynthesis if current temperatures are below the optimal temperature for plant growth, while it will reduce photosynthesis if current temperatures are above the optimal temperature for plant growth. We present a series of ensemble simulations to evaluate the ability of plants to acclimate to changing conditions over the last century and how this affects the terrestrial carbon sink. A set of experiments related to (a) the varying relationship between CO2 fertilization and the half saturation constant, (b) the factors related to gross primary productivity and maintenance respiration, and (c) the variables related to heterotrophic respiration, were conducted with thirteen plant functional types. The experiments were performed using the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) with a present-day vegetation distribution without the effects of natural or human disturbance, and a closed Nitrogen cycle, at a half-degree resolution over the globe. The experiment design consisted of eight scenarios that are consistent with past and future ecosystem conditions, presented in other scientific studies. The significance of model trends related to runoff, soil moisture, soil carbon, Net Primary Productivity (NPP), crop yield, and Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) for different seasons, as well as surface temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure, and photosynthetically active radiation are analyzed for various ecosystems at the global

  12. Collaborative Development Planning Model of Supporting Product in Platform Innovation Ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the market value of the product, the platform enterprise often participates in the development process of supporting product of emerging industry’s platform innovation ecosystem. This paper puts forward a revenue sharing contract between the platform company and the supporting company by creating a collaborative development model of the supporting product in the ecosystem, and this paper studies the platform enterprise investment resource property's (complementary or substitution impact on the supporting enterprise R&D efforts and the revenue sharing factor and analyzes collaborative development mechanism of supporting product of emerging industry platform innovation ecosystem. The research indicates that when platform enterprise and supporting enterprise's resources are complementary, the supporting enterprise R&D effort level and revenue sharing coefficient increase as the platform company’s investment increases. When platform enterprise and supporting enterprise's resources are substitutive, the supporting enterprise’s R&D effort level and revenue sharing coefficient decrease as the platform company’s investment increases.

  13. Understanding system disturbance and ecosystem services in restored saltmarshes: Integrating physical and biogeochemical processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, K. L.; Harvey, G. L.

    2012-06-01

    Coastal saltmarsh ecosystems occupy only a small percentage of Earth's land surface, yet contribute a wide range of ecosystem services that have significant global economic and societal value. These environments currently face significant challenges associated with climate change, sea level rise, development and water quality deterioration and are consequently the focus of a range of management schemes. Increasingly, soft engineering techniques such as managed realignment (MR) are being employed to restore and recreate these environments, driven primarily by the need for habitat (re)creation and sustainable coastal flood defence. Such restoration schemes also have the potential to provide additional ecosystem services including climate regulation and waste processing. However, these sites have frequently been physically impacted by their previous land use and there is a lack of understanding of how this 'disturbance' impacts the delivery of ecosystem services or of the complex linkages between ecological, physical and biogeochemical processes in restored systems. Through the exploration of current data this paper determines that hydrological, geomorphological and hydrodynamic functioning of restored sites may be significantly impaired with respects to natural 'undisturbed' systems and that links between morphology, sediment structure, hydrology and solute transfer are poorly understood. This has consequences for the delivery of seeds, the provision of abiotic conditions suitable for plant growth, the development of microhabitats and the cycling of nutrients/contaminants and may impact the delivery of ecosystem services including biodiversity, climate regulation and waste processing. This calls for a change in our approach to research in these environments with a need for integrated, interdisciplinary studies over a range of spatial and temporal scales incorporating both intensive and extensive research design.

  14. Integration of research infrastructures and ecosystem models toward development of predictive ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Y.; Huang, Y.; Jiang, J.; MA, S.; Saruta, V.; Liang, G.; Hanson, P. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Milcu, A.; Roy, J.

    2017-12-01

    The past two decades have witnessed rapid development in sensor technology. Built upon the sensor development, large research infrastructure facilities, such as National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and FLUXNET, have been established. Through networking different kinds of sensors and other data collections at many locations all over the world, those facilities generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The big data from those facilities offer an unprecedented opportunity for advancing our understanding of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, and testing ecological theory. The big data from the major research infrastructure facilities also provides foundation for developing predictive ecology. Indeed, the capability to predict future changes in our living environment and natural resources is critical to decision making in a world where the past is no longer a clear guide to the future. We are living in a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, unsustainable depletion of natural resources, and deterioration of air and water quality. Projecting changes in future ecosystem services to the society becomes essential not only for science but also for policy making. We will use this panel format to outline major opportunities and challenges in integrating research infrastructure and ecosystem models toward developing predictive ecology. Meanwhile, we will also show results from an interactive model-experiment System - Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data into models (EcoPAD) - that have been implemented at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment in Northern Minnesota and Montpellier Ecotron, France. EcoPAD is developed by integrating web technology, eco-informatics, data assimilation techniques, and ecosystem modeling. EcoPAD is designed to streamline data transfer seamlessly from research infrastructure

  15. Modeling styles in business process modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pinggera, J.; Soffer, P.; Zugal, S.; Weber, B.; Weidlich, M.; Fahland, D.; Reijers, H.A.; Mendling, J.; Bider, I.; Halpin, T.; Krogstie, J.; Nurcan, S.; Proper, E.; Schmidt, R.; Soffer, P.; Wrycza, S.

    2012-01-01

    Research on quality issues of business process models has recently begun to explore the process of creating process models. As a consequence, the question arises whether different ways of creating process models exist. In this vein, we observed 115 students engaged in the act of modeling, recording

  16. Modeled responses of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated atmospheric CO2: a comparison of simulations by the biogeochemistry models of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yude; Melillo, Jerry M; McGuire, A David; Kicklighter, David W; Pitelka, Louis F; Hibbard, Kathy; Pierce, Lars L; Running, Steven W; Ojima, Dennis S; Parton, William J; Schimel, David S

    1998-04-01

    Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO 2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO 2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO 2 . In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO 2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO 2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO 2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO 2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO 2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which

  17. Atlantis Modeled Output Data for the Coral Reef Ecosystems of Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A proof-of-concept Guam Atlantis Coral Reef Ecosystem Model has been developed and an added coral module to the Atlantis framework has been validated. The model is...

  18. Inter-annual variabilities in biogeophysical feedback of terrestrial ecosystem to atmosphere using a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, C.; Hong, S.; Jeong, H. M.; Jeon, J.

    2017-12-01

    Biogeophysical processes of terrestrial ecosystem such as water vapor and energy flux are the key features to understand ecological feedback to atmospheric processes and thus role of terrestrial ecosystem in climate system. For example, it has been recently known that the ecological feedback through water vapor and energy flux results in regulating regional weathers and climates which is one of the fundamental functions of terrestrial ecosystem. In regional scale, water vapor flux has been known to give negative feedback to atmospheric warming, while energy flux from the surface has been known to positive feedback. In this study, we explored the inter-annual variabilities in these two biogeophysical features to see how the climate regulating functions of terrestrial ecosystem have been changed with climate change. We selected a land surface model involving vegetation dynamics that is forced by atmospheric data from NASA including precipitation, temperature, wind, surface pressure, humidity, and incoming radiations. From the land surface model, we simulated 60-year water vapor and energy fluxes from 1961 to 2010, and calculates feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystem as in radiation amount into atmosphere. Then, we analyzed the inter-annual variabilities in the feedbacks. The results showed that some mid-latitude areas showing very high variabilities in precipitation showed higher positive feedback and/or lower negative feedback. These results suggest deterioration of the biogeophyisical factor of climate regulating function over those regions.

  19. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, K., E-mail: zhangkaibetter@126.com; Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org; Huang, G.H., E-mail: gordon.huang@uregina.ca; You, L., E-mail: youli_ncepu@126.com; Jin, S.W., E-mail: jinshuwei2014@126.com

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  20. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty — A case study of Dongying, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, K.; Li, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; You, L.; Jin, S.W.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. - Highlights: • Superiority–inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed. • STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions. • STSP is applied to planning

  1. Application of eco-exergy for assessment of ecosystem health and development of structurally dynamic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, J.; Gürkan, Zeren; Jørgensen, S.E.

    2010-01-01

    are developed using eco-exergy as the goal function, have been applied in explaining and exploring ecosystem properties and changes in community structure driven by biotic and abiotic factors. In this paper, we review the application of eco-exergy for the assessment of ecosystem health and development......Eco-exergy has been widely used in the assessment of ecosystem health, parameter estimations, calibrations, validations and prognoses. It offers insights into the understanding of ecosystem dynamics and disturbance-cl riven changes. Particularly, structurally dynamic models (SDMs), which...

  2. Changes in Nature's Balance Sheet: Model-based Estimates of Future Worldwide Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Alcamo

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Four quantitative scenarios are presented that describe changes in worldwide ecosystem services up to 2050-2100. A set of soft-linked global models of human demography, economic development, climate, and biospheric processes are used to quantify these scenarios. The global demand for ecosystem services substantially increases up to 2050: cereal consumption by a factor of 1.5 to 1.7, fish consumption (up to the 2020s by a factor of 1.3 to 1.4, water withdrawals by a factor of 1.3 to 2.0, and biofuel production by a factor of 5.1 to 11.3. The ranges for these estimates reflect differences between the socio-economic assumptions of the scenarios. In all simulations, Sub-Saharan Africa continues to lag behind other parts of the world. Although the demand side of these scenarios presents an overall optimistic view of the future, the supply side is less optimistic: the risk of higher soil erosion (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and lower water availability (especially in the Middle East could slow down an increase in food production. Meanwhile, increasing wastewater discharges during the same period, especially in Latin America (factor of 2 to 4 and Sub-Saharan Africa (factor of 3.6 to 5.6 could interfere with the delivery of freshwater services. Marine fisheries (despite the growth of aquaculture may not have the ecological capacity to provide for the increased global demand for fish. Our simulations also show an intensification of present tradeoffs between ecosystem services, e.g., expansion of agricultural land (between 2000 and 2050 may be one of the main causes of a 10%-20% loss of total current grassland and forest land and the ecosystem services associated with this land (e.g., genetic resources, wood production, habitat for terrestrial biota and fauna. The scenarios also show that certain hot-spot regions may experience especially rapid changes in ecosystem services: the central part of Africa, southern Asia, and the Middle East. In general

  3. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  4. Examining Ecological and Ecosystem Level Impacts of Aquatic Invasive Species in Lake Michigan Using An Ecosystem Productivity Model, LM-Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological and ecosystem-level impacts of aquatic invasive species in Lake Michigan were examined using the Lake Michigan Ecosystem Model (LM-Eco). The LM-Eco model includes a detailed description of trophic levels and their interactions within the lower food web of Lake Michiga...

  5. A spatially explicit hydro-ecological modeling framework (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0): Model description and test in a boreal ecosystem in Eastern North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govind, Ajit; Chen, Jing Ming; Margolis, Hank; Ju, Weimin; Sonnentag, Oliver; Giasson, Marc-André

    2009-04-01

    SummaryA spatially explicit, process-based hydro-ecological model, BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0, was developed to improve the representation of ecophysiological, hydro-ecological and biogeochemical processes of boreal ecosystems in a tightly coupled manner. Several processes unique to boreal ecosystems were implemented including the sub-surface lateral water fluxes, stratification of vegetation into distinct layers for explicit ecophysiological representation, inclusion of novel spatial upscaling strategies and biogeochemical processes. To account for preferential water fluxes common in humid boreal ecosystems, a novel scheme was introduced based on laboratory analyses. Leaf-scale ecophysiological processes were upscaled to canopy-scale by explicitly considering leaf physiological conditions as affected by light and water stress. The modified model was tested with 2 years of continuous measurements taken at the Eastern Old Black Spruce Site of the Fluxnet-Canada Research Network located in a humid boreal watershed in eastern Canada. Comparison of the simulated and measured ET, water-table depth (WTD), volumetric soil water content (VSWC) and gross primary productivity (GPP) revealed that BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0 simulates hydro-ecological processes with reasonable accuracy. The model was able to explain 83% of the ET, 92% of the GPP variability and 72% of the WTD dynamics. The model suggests that in humid ecosystems such as eastern North American boreal watersheds, topographically driven sub-surface baseflow is the main mechanism of soil water partitioning which significantly affects the local-scale hydrological conditions.

  6. A Satellite-Based Model for Simulating Ecosystem Respiration in the Tibetan and Inner Mongolian Grasslands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Ge

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to accurately evaluate ecosystem respiration (RE in the alpine grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau and the temperate grasslands of the Inner Mongolian Plateau, as it serves as a sensitivity indicator of regional and global carbon cycles. Here, we combined flux measurements taken between 2003 and 2013 from 16 grassland sites across northern China and the corresponding MODIS land surface temperature (LST, enhanced vegetation index (EVI, and land surface water index (LSWI to build a satellite-based model to estimate RE at a regional scale. First, the dependencies of both spatial and temporal variations of RE on these biotic and climatic factors were examined explicitly. We found that plant productivity and moisture, but not temperature, can best explain the spatial pattern of RE in northern China’s grasslands; while temperature plays a major role in regulating the temporal variability of RE in the alpine grasslands, and moisture is equally as important as temperature in the temperate grasslands. However, the moisture effect on RE and the explicit representation of spatial variation process are often lacking in most of the existing satellite-based RE models. On this basis, we developed a model by comprehensively considering moisture, temperature, and productivity effects on both temporal and spatial processes of RE, and then, we evaluated the model performance. Our results showed that the model well explained the observed RE in both the alpine (R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 0.77 g C m−2 day−1 and temperate grasslands (R2 = 0.75, RMSE = 0.60 g C m−2 day−1. The inclusion of the LSWI as the water-limiting factor substantially improved the model performance in arid and semi-arid ecosystems, and the spatialized basal respiration rate as an indicator for spatial variation largely determined the regional pattern of RE. Finally, the model accurately reproduced the seasonal and inter-annual variations and spatial variability of RE, and it avoided

  7. Using FLUXNET data to improve models of springtime vegetation activity onset in forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melaas, E.; Richardson, A.; Friedl, M.; Dragoni, D.; Gough, C.; Herbst, M.; Montagnani, L.; Moors, E.J.

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation phenology is sensitive to climate change and variability, and is a first order control on the carbon budget of forest ecosystems. Robust representation of phenology is therefore needed to support model-based projections of how climate change will affect ecosystem function. A variety of

  8. Regional processes in mangrove ecosystems: Spatial scaling relationships, biomass, and turnover rates following catastrophic disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, G.A.; Smith, T. J.; Whelan, K.R.T.; Doyle, T.W.

    2006-01-01

    Physiological processes and local-scale structural dynamics of mangroves are relatively well studied. Regional-scale processes, however, are not as well understood. Here we provide long-term data on trends in structure and forest turnover at a large scale, following hurricane damage in mangrove ecosystems of South Florida, U.S.A. Twelve mangrove vegetation plots were monitored at periodic intervals, between October 1992 and March 2005. Mangrove forests of this region are defined by a -1.5 scaling relationship between mean stem diameter and stem density, mirroring self-thinning theory for mono-specific stands. This relationship is reflected in tree size frequency scaling exponents which, through time, have exhibited trends toward a community average that is indicative of full spatial resource utilization. These trends, together with an asymptotic standing biomass accumulation, indicate that coastal mangrove ecosystems do adhere to size-structured organizing principles as described for upland tree communities. Regenerative dynamics are different between areas inside and outside of the primary wind-path of Hurricane Andrew which occurred in 1992. Forest dynamic turnover rates, however, are steady through time. This suggests that ecological, more-so than structural factors, control forest productivity. In agreement, the relative mean rate of biomass growth exhibits an inverse relationship with the seasonal range of porewater salinities. The ecosystem average in forest scaling relationships may provide a useful investigative tool of mangrove community biomass relationships, as well as offer a robust indicator of general ecosystem health for use in mangrove forest ecosystem management and restoration. ?? Springer 2006.

  9. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik [eds.

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models.

  10. Ecosystem modelling in the Forsmark area. Proceedings from two workshops modelling Eckarfjaerden and Bolundsfjaerden catchment areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Kautsky, Ulrik

    2004-11-01

    The siting program for a repository of spent fuel currently collects large set of data from the surface ecosystem, as well as from the geosphere. The data collected at the sites will be used for various purposes, mainly for the safety assessment for the repository and for environmental impact assessment. The safety assessment of the encapsulation plant also includes an assessment of the postclosure of the repository (SRCAN) at the two sites of current interest for a repository. To show important methods on how data from the sites should be used in a safety assessment, a report for methods concerning SRCAN will be produced. This report is a first step in showing how the site data will be used to understand the function and dynamics of the ecosystems and how it may be translated in various dose models. A more extensive report from The SurfaceNet taskforce is presented in SKB-R--05-01. This report is based on two workshops held in Grisslehamn, Uppland October 20-23, 2003 and in Marholmen, Uppland April 16-19, 2004. Participants from the site investigation program, the analysis group, safety assessment and research attended the workshops. The groups worked intensively for 3 full days respectively, and achieved the major findings in this report. The two workshops had approximately the same approach, although Marholmen was more focused on the terrestrial ecosystems and Grisslehamn on aquatic systems. Besides the major aim of the workshops, to examine function and dynamics of ecosystems translated into dose modelling, another purpose was to communicate the reasons for the sampling programmes, to train new resources and to get plenty of undisturbed time to generate a large amount of creative work. It also got the important role of increased understanding between different scientific disciplines. High quality data is important for validating the dose- and ecosystem models

  11. Ecosystem models. Volume 2. November, 1975--1977 (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for Nov 1975--Nov 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, E.A.

    1978-10-01

    The preparation and use of ecosystem models are covered in this bibliography of Federally-funded research. Models for marine biology, wildlife, plants, water pollution, microorganisms, food chains, radioactive substances, limnology, and diseases as related to ecosystems are included

  12. Ecosystem models. Volume 3. November, 1977--October, 1978 (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for Nov 1977--Oct 1978

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, E.A.

    1978-10-01

    The preparation and use of ecosystem models are covered in this bibliography of Federally-funded research. Models for marine biology, wildlife, plants, water pollution, microorganisms, food chains, radioactive substances, limnology, and diseases as related to ecosystems are included

  13. Comparison of seasonal soil microbial process in snow-covered temperate ecosystems of northern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyue Zhang

    Full Text Available More than half of the earth's terrestrial surface currently experiences seasonal snow cover and soil frost. Winter compositional and functional investigations in soil microbial community are frequently conducted in alpine tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, little information on winter microbial biogeochemistry is known from seasonally snow-covered temperate ecosystems. As decomposer microbes may differ in their ability/strategy to efficiently use soil organic carbon (SOC within different phases of the year, understanding seasonal microbial process will increase our knowledge of biogeochemical cycling from the aspect of decomposition rates and corresponding nutrient dynamics. In this study, we measured soil microbial biomass, community composition and potential SOC mineralization rates in winter and summer, from six temperate ecosystems in northern China. Our results showed a clear pattern of increased microbial biomass C to nitrogen (N ratio in most winter soils. Concurrently, a shift in soil microbial community composition occurred with higher fungal to bacterial biomass ratio and gram negative (G- to gram positive (G+ bacterial biomass ratio in winter than in summer. Furthermore, potential SOC mineralization rate was higher in winter than in summer. Our study demonstrated a distinct transition of microbial community structure and function from winter to summer in temperate snow-covered ecosystems. Microbial N immobilization in winter may not be the major contributor for plant growth in the following spring.

  14. Trophic flow structure of a neotropical estuary in northeastern Brazil and the comparison of ecosystem model indicators of estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, Alex; Angelini, Ronaldo; Le Loc'h, François; Ménard, Frédéric; Lacerda, Carlos; Frédou, Thierry; Lucena Frédou, Flávia

    2018-06-01

    We developed an Ecopath model for the Estuary of Sirinhaém River (SIR), a small-sized system surrounded by mangroves, subject to high impact, mainly by the sugar cane and other farming industries in order to describe the food web structure and trophic interactions. In addition, we compared our findings with those of 20 available Ecopath estuarine models for tropical, subtropical and temperate regions, aiming to synthesize the knowledge on trophic dynamics and provide a comprehensive analysis of the structures and functioning of estuaries. Our model consisted of 25 compartments and its indicators were within the expected range for estuarine areas around the world. The average trophic transfer efficiency for the entire system was 11.8%, similar to the theoretical value of 10%. The Keystone Index and MTI (Mixed Trophic Impact) analysis indicated that the snook (Centropomus undecimalis and Centropomus parallelus) and jack (Caranx latus and Caranx hippos) are considered as key resources in the system, revealing their high impact in the food web. Both groups have a high ecological and commercial relevance, despite the unregulated fisheries. As result of the comparison of ecosystem model indicators in estuaries, differences in the ecosystem structure from the low latitude zones (tropical estuaries) to the high latitude zones (temperate system) were noticed. The structure of temperate and sub-tropical estuaries is based on high flows of detritus and export, while tropical systems have high biomass, respiration and consumption rates. Higher values of System Omnivory Index (SOI) and Overhead (SO) were observed in the tropical and subtropical estuaries, denoting a more complex food chain. Globally, none of the estuarine models were classified as fully mature ecosystems, although the tropical ecosystems were considered more mature than the subtropical and temperate ecosystems. This study is an important contribution to the trophic modeling of estuaries, which may also help

  15. Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forcada, J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Staniland, I.J.

    2009-01-01

    Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90?125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12?16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the ?escapement? due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species

  16. Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, Kristin B.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Labiosa, William B.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

  17. Forest Soil Bacteria: Diversity, Involvement in Ecosystem Processes, and Response to Global Change

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lladó, Salvador; López-Mondéjar, Rubén; Baldrian, Petr

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 81, č. 2 (2017), s. 1-27, č. článku e00063. ISSN 1092-2172 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GP14-09040P; GA MŠk(CZ) LD15086 Institutional support: RVO:61388971 Keywords : bacteria * decomposition * ecosystem processes Subject RIV: EE - Microbiology, Virology OBOR OECD: Microbiology Impact factor: 14.533, year: 2016

  18. Modelling soil temperature and moisture and corresponding seasonality of photosynthesis and transpiration in a boreal spruce ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, S. H.; Jansson, P.-E.

    2013-02-01

    Recovery of photosynthesis and transpiration is strongly restricted by low temperatures in air and/or soil during the transition period from winter to spring in boreal zones. The extent to which air temperature (Ta) and soil temperature (Ts) influence the seasonality of photosynthesis and transpiration of a boreal spruce ecosystem was investigated using a process-based ecosystem model (CoupModel) together with eddy covariance (EC) data from one eddy flux tower and nearby soil measurements at Knottåsen, Sweden. A Monte Carlo-based uncertainty method (GLUE) provided prior and posterior distributions of simulations representing a wide range of soil conditions and performance indicators. The simulated results showed sufficient flexibility to predict the measured cold and warm Ts in the moist and dry plots around the eddy flux tower. Moreover, the model presented a general ability to describe both biotic and abiotic processes for the Norway spruce stand. The dynamics of sensible heat fluxes were well described by the corresponding latent heat fluxes and net ecosystem exchange of CO2. The parameter ranges obtained are probably valid to represent regional characteristics of boreal conifer forests, but were not easy to constrain to a smaller range than that produced by the assumed prior distributions. Finally, neglecting the soil temperature response function resulted in fewer behavioural models and probably more compensatory errors in other response functions for regulating the seasonality of ecosystem fluxes.

  19. Estimation of Carbon Flux of Forest Ecosystem over Qilian Mountains by BIOME-BGC Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Min; Tian, Xin; Li, Zengyuan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Chunmei

    2014-11-01

    The gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) are important indicators for carbon fluxes. This study aims at evaluating the forest GPP and NEE over the Qilian Mountains using meteorological, remotely sensed and other ancillary data at large scale. To realize this, the widely used ecological-process-based model, Biome-BGC, and remote-sensing-based model, MODIS GPP algorithm, were selected for the simulation of the forest carbon fluxes. The combination of these two models was based on calibrating the Biome-BGC by the optimized MODIS GPP algorithm. The simulated GPP and NEE values were evaluated against the eddy covariance observed GPPs and NEEs, and the well agreements have been reached, with R2=0.76, 0.67 respectively.

  20. Bayesian analysis of non-linear differential equation models with application to a gut microbial ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Daniel J; Holtrop, Grietje; Flint, Harry

    2011-07-01

    Process models specified by non-linear dynamic differential equations contain many parameters, which often must be inferred from a limited amount of data. We discuss a hierarchical Bayesian approach combining data from multiple related experiments in a meaningful way, which permits more powerful inference than treating each experiment as independent. The approach is illustrated with a simulation study and example data from experiments replicating the aspects of the human gut microbial ecosystem. A predictive model is obtained that contains prediction uncertainty caused by uncertainty in the parameters, and we extend the model to capture situations of interest that cannot easily be studied experimentally. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  2. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  3. Amazon forest ecosystem responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 and alterations in nutrient availability: filling the gaps with model-experiment integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian eHofhansl

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of elevated CO2 (eCO2 and alterations in nutrient availability on the carbon (C storage capacity and resilience of the Amazon forest remain highly uncertain. Carbon dynamics are controlled by multiple eco-physiological processes responding to environmental change, but we lack solid experimental evidence, hampering theory development and thus representation in ecosystem models. Here, we present two ecosystem-scale manipulation experiments, to be carried out in the Amazon, that examine tropical ecosystem responses to eCO2 and nutrient addition and thus will elucidate the representation of crucial ecological processes by ecosystem models. We highlight current gaps in our understanding of tropical ecosystem responses to projected global changes in light of the eco-physiological assumptions considered by current ecosystem models. We conclude that a more detailed process-based representation of the spatial (e.g. soil type; plant functional type and temporal (seasonal and inter-annual variation diversity of tropical forests is needed to enhance model predictions of ecosystem responses to projected global environmental change.

  4. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  5. Modelling the dynamic interactions between food production and ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duku, C.

    2017-01-01

    Given the high levels of food insecurity and the loss of vital ecosystem services associated with deforestation, countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face a major dilemma. How can they produce enough food in a changing climate to feed an increasing population while protecting natural forests and

  6. Toxicological evaluation of parathion and azinphosmethyl in freshwater model ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dortland, R.J.

    1980-01-01

    A study was made of the possible hazards of long-term exposure of freshwater ecosystems to low (< 1 mg m -3) concentrations of organophosphorus insecticides. Range-finding, acute and sub-acute (3 weeks) laboratory toxicity trials were

  7. Modeling Heterogeneous Fishing Fleet in an Ecosystem Based Management Context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hutniczak, Barbara

    The rapid pace of climate change and increased human disturbance of ecosystems in the Arctic is bringing urgency to concern over non-native species introductions and their potential threats to the marine environment and its economic productivity, where before environmental conditions served...

  8. Process Network Approach to Understanding How Forest Ecosystems Adapt to Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Yun, J.; Hong, J.; Kwon, H.; Chun, J.

    2011-12-01

    Sustainability challenges are transforming science and its role in society. Complex systems science has emerged as an inevitable field of education and research, which transcends disciplinary boundaries and focuses on understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological systems (SES). SES is a combined system of social and ecological components and drivers that interact and give rise to results, which could not be understood on the basis of sociological or ecological considerations alone. However, both systems may be viewed as a network of processes, and such a network hierarchy may serve as a hinge to bridge social and ecological systems. As a first step toward such effort, we attempted to delineate and interpret such process networks in forest ecosystems, which play a critical role in the cycles of carbon and water from local to global scales. These cycles and their variability, in turn, play an important role in the emergent and self-organizing interactions between forest ecosystems and their environment. Ruddell and Kumar (2009) define a process network as a network of feedback loops and the related time scales, which describe the magnitude and direction of the flow of energy, matter, and information between the different variables in a complex system. Observational evidence, based on micrometeorological eddy covariance measurements, suggests that heterogeneity and disturbances in forest ecosystems in monsoon East Asia may facilitate to build resilience for adaptation to change. Yet, the principles that characterize the role of variability in these interactions remain elusive. In this presentation, we report results from the analysis of multivariate ecohydrologic and biogeochemical time series data obtained from temperate forest ecosystems in East Asia based on information flow statistics.

  9. Evaluation and inversion of a net ecosystem carbon exchange model for grasslands and croplands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbst, M.; Klosterhalfen, A.; Weihermueller, L.; Graf, A.; Schmidt, M.; Huisman, J. A.; Vereecken, H.

    2017-12-01

    A one-dimensional soil water, heat, and CO2 flux model (SOILCO2), a pool concept of soil carbon turnover (RothC), and a crop growth module (SUCROS) was coupled to predict the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon. This model, further referred to as AgroC, was extended with routines for managed grassland as well as for root exudation and root decay. In a first step, the coupled model was applied to two winter wheat sites and one upland grassland site in Germany. The model was calibrated based on soil water content, soil temperature, biometric, and soil respiration measurements for each site, and validated in terms of hourly NEE measured with the eddy covariance technique. The overall model performance of AgroC was acceptable with a model efficiency >0.78 for NEE. In a second step, AgroC was optimized with the eddy covariance NEE measurements to examine the effect of various objective functions, constraints, and data-transformations on estimated NEE, which showed a distinct sensitivity to the choice of objective function and the inclusion of soil respiration data in the optimization process. Both, day and nighttime fluxes, were found to be sensitive to the selected optimization strategy. Additional consideration of soil respiration measurements improved the simulation of small positive fluxes remarkably. Even though the model performance of the selected optimization strategies did not diverge substantially, the resulting annual NEE differed substantially. We conclude that data-transformation, definition of objective functions, and data sources have to be considered cautiously when using a terrestrial ecosystem model to determine carbon balances by means of eddy covariance measurements.

  10. Urban ecosystem modeling and global change: Potential for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Shaoqing; Chen, Bin; Fath, Brian D.

    2014-01-01

    Urbanization is a strong and extensive driver that causes environmental pollution and climate change from local to global scale. Modeling cities as ecosystems has been initiated by a wide range of scientists as a key to addressing challenging problems concomitant with urbanization. In this paper, ‘urban ecosystem modeling (UEM)’ is defined in an inter-disciplinary context to acquire a broad perception of urban ecological properties and their interactions with global change. Furthermore, state-of-the-art models of urban ecosystems are reviewed, categorized as top-down models (including materials/energy-oriented models and structure-oriented models), bottom-up models (including land use-oriented models and infrastructure-oriented models), or hybrid models thereof. Based on the review of UEM studies, a future framework for explicit UEM is proposed based the integration of UEM approaches of different scales, guiding more rational urban management and efficient emissions mitigation. - Highlights: • Urban ecosystems modeling (UEM) is defined in an interdisciplinary context. • State-of-the-art models for UEM are critically reviewed and compared. • An integrated framework for explicit UEM is proposed under global change. - State-of-the-art models of urban ecosystem modeling (UEM) are reviewed for rational urban management and emissions mitigation

  11. Modeling the Ecosystem Services Provided by Trees in Urban Ecosystems: Using Biome-BGC to Improve i-Tree Eco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; McGroddy, Megan; Spence, Caitlin; Flake, Leah; Sarfraz, Amna; Nowak, David J.; Milesi, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly urban, the need to quantify the effect of trees in urban environments on energy usage, air pollution, local climate and nutrient run-off has increased. By identifying, quantifying and valuing the ecological activity that provides services in urban areas, stronger policies and improved quality of life for urban residents can be obtained. Here we focus on two radically different models that can be used to characterize urban forests. The i-Tree Eco model (formerly UFORE model) quantifies ecosystem services (e.g., air pollution removal, carbon storage) and values derived from urban trees based on field measurements of trees and local ancillary data sets. Biome-BGC (Biome BioGeoChemistry) is used to simulate the fluxes and storage of carbon, water, and nitrogen in natural environments. This paper compares i-Tree Eco's methods to those of Biome-BGC, which estimates the fluxes and storage of energy, carbon, water and nitrogen for vegetation and soil components of the ecosystem. We describe the two models and their differences in the way they calculate similar properties, with a focus on carbon and nitrogen. Finally, we discuss the implications of further integration of these two communities for land managers such as those in Maryland.

  12. Ecosystem processes and human influences regulate streamflow response to climate change at long-term ecological research sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julia A. Jones; Irena F. Creed; Kendra L. Hatcher; Robert J. Warren; Mary Beth Adams; Melinda H. Benson; Emery Boose; Warren A. Brown; John L. Campbell; Alan Covich; David W. Clow; Clifford N. Dahm; Kelly Elder; Chelcy R. Ford; Nancy B. Grimm; Donald L Henshaw; Kelli L. Larson; Evan S. Miles; Kathleen M. Miles; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Adam T. Spargo; Asa B. Stone; James M. Vose; Mark W. Williams

    2012-01-01

    Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-...

  13. USEtox: The UNEP-SETAC consensus model for life-cycle impacts on human health and ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; McKone, Tom; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

    2007-01-01

    Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) characterizes emissions for the life-cycle assessment (LCA) of a product by translating these emissions into their potential impacts on human health, ecosystems, global climate and other resources. This process requires substance-specific characterization factors...... (CFs) that represent the relative potential of specific chemical emissions to impact human disease burden and ecosystem health. Within the Life Cycle Initiative, a joint initiative of the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC...... and transparent tool for making human health and ecosystem CF estimates. The consensus model has now been used to calculate CFs for several thousand substances and is intended to form the basis of the recommendations from UNEP-SETAC‘s Life Cycle Initiative regarding characterization of toxic impacts in Life Cycle...

  14. Uncertainty analysis of a coupled ecosystem response model simulating greenhouse gas fluxes from a temperate grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebermann, Ralf; Kraft, Philipp; Houska, Tobias; Breuer, Lutz; Müller, Christoph; Kraus, David; Haas, Edwin; Klatt, Steffen

    2015-04-01

    Among anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 is the dominant driver of global climate change. Next to its direct impact on the radiation budget, it also affects the climate system by triggering feedback mechanisms in terrestrial ecosystems. Such mechanisms - like stimulated photosynthesis, increased root exudations and reduced stomatal transpiration - influence both the input and the turnover of carbon and nitrogen compounds in the soil. The stabilization and decomposition of these compounds determines how increasing CO2 concentrations change the terrestrial trace gas emissions, especially CO2, N2O and CH4. To assess the potential reaction of terrestrial greenhouse gas emissions to rising tropospheric CO2 concentration, we make use of a comprehensive ecosystem model integrating known processes and fluxes of the carbon-nitrogen cycle in soil, vegetation and water. We apply a state-of-the-art ecosystem model with measurements from a long term field experiment of CO2 enrichment. The model - a grassland realization of LandscapeDNDC - simulates soil chemistry coupled with plant physiology, microclimate and hydrology. The data - comprising biomass, greenhouse gas emissions, management practices and soil properties - has been attained from a FACE (Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment) experiment running since 1997 on a temperate grassland in Giessen, Germany. Management and soil data, together with weather records, are used to drive the model, while cut biomass as well as CO2 and N2O emissions are used for calibration and validation. Starting with control data from installations without CO2 enhancement, we begin with a GLUE (General Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) assessment using Latin Hypercube to reduce the range of the model parameters. This is followed by a detailed sensitivity analysis, the application of DREAM-ZS for model calibration, and an estimation of the effect of input uncertainty on the simulation results. Since first results indicate problems with

  15. Ecosystem services: developing sustainable management paradigms based on wetland functions and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euliss, Ned H.; Mushet, David M.; Smith, Loren M.; Conner, William H.; Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Hester, Mark W.; Zheng, Haochi

    2013-01-01

    In the late nineteenth century and twentieth century, there was considerable interest and activity to develop the United States for agricultural, mining, and many other purposes to improve the quality of human life standards and prosperity. Most of the work to support this development was focused along disciplinary lines with little attention focused on ecosystem service trade-offs or synergisms, especially those that transcended boundaries of scientific disciplines and specific interest groups. Concurrently, human population size has increased substantially and its use of ecosystem services has increased more than five-fold over just the past century. Consequently, the contemporary landscape has been highly modified for human use, leaving behind a fragmented landscape where basic ecosystem functions and processes have been broadly altered. Over this period, climate change also interacted with other anthropogenic effects, resulting in modern environmental problems having a complexity that is without historical precedent. The challenge before the scientific community is to develop new science paradigms that integrate relevant scientific disciplines to properly frame and evaluate modern environmental problems in a systems-type approach to better inform the decision-making process. Wetland science is a relatively new discipline that grew out of the conservation movement of the early twentieth century. In the United States, most of the conservation attention in the earlier days was on wildlife, but a growing human awareness of the importance of the environment led to the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act in 1969. Concurrently, there was a broadening interest in conservation science, and the scientific study of wetlands gradually gained acceptance as a scientific discipline. Pioneering wetland scientists became formally organized when they formed The Society of Wetland Scientists in 1980 and established a publication outlet to share wetland research

  16. Uncertainty Source of Modeled Ecosystem Productivity in East Asian Monsoon Region: A Traceability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, E.; Xia, J.; Huang, K.; Ito, A.; Arain, M. A.; Jain, A. K.; Poulter, B.; Peng, C.; Hayes, D. J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Huntzinger, D. N.; Tian, H.; Mao, J.; Fisher, J.; Schaefer, K. M.; Huang, M.; Peng, S.; Wang, W.

    2017-12-01

    East Asian monsoon region, benefits from sufficient water-heat availability and increasing nitrogen deposition, represents significantly higher net ecosystem productivity than the same latitudes of Europe-Africa and North America. A better understanding of major contributions to the uncertainties of terrestrial carbon cycle in this region is greatly important for evaluating the global carbon balance. This study analyzed the key carbon processes and parameters derived from a series of terrestrial biosphere models. A wide range of inter-model disagreement on GPP was found in China's subtropical regions. Then, this large difference was traced to a few traceable components included in terrestrial carbon cycle. The increase in ensemble mean GPP over 1901-2010 was predominantly resulted from increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, while high frequent land-use change over this region showed a slightly negative effect on GPP. However, inter-model differences of GPP were mainly attributed to the baseline simulations without changes in external forcing. According to the variance decomposition, the large spread in simulated GPP was well explained by the differences in leaf area index (LAI) and specific leaf area (SLA) among models. In addition, the underlying errors in simulated GPP propagate through the model and introduce some additional errors to the simulation of NPP and biomass. By comparing the simulations with satellite-derived, data-oriented and observation-based datasets, we further found that GPP, vegetation carbon turn-over time, aboveground biomass, LAI and SLA were all overestimated in most of the models while biomass distribution in leaves was significantly underestimated. The results of this study indicate that model performance on ecosystem productivity in East Asian monsoon region can be improved by a more realistic representation of leaf functional traits.

  17. QUANTIFYING AND MODELING THE RISK OF DISTURBANCE TO ECOSYSTEMS CAUSED BY INVASIVE SPECIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Invasive species are biological pollutants that threaten ecosystem health. Identifying the mechanisms of invasive and developing predictive models of invasion will be critical to developing risk management strategies for limiting the economic and environmental damage caused by i...

  18. Ecosystem models (a bibliography with abstracts). Report for 1964-Nov 1975

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, E.A.

    1975-11-01

    The bibliography contains abstracts which cover marine biology, natural resources, wildlife, plants, water pollution, microorganisms, food chains, radioactive substances, limnology, and diseases as related to ecosystem models. Contains 214 abstracts

  19. A compartment model of plutonium dynamics in a deciduous forest ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garten, C.T. Jr.; Gardner, R.H.; Dahlman, R.C.

    1978-01-01

    A linear compartment donor-controlled model was designed to describe and simulate the behaviour of plutonium ( 239 , 240 Pu) in a contaminated deciduous forest ecosystem at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. At steady states predicted by the model, less than 0.25% of the Pu in the ecosystem resides in forest biota. Soil is the major repository of Pu in the forest, and reciprocal exchanges of Pu between soil and litter or soil and tree roots were dominant transfers affecting the ecosystem distribution of Pu. Variation in predicted steady state amounts of Pu in the forest, given variability in the model parameters, indicated that ones ability to develop reliable models of Pu transport in ecosystems will improve with greater precision in data from natural environments and a better understanding of sources of variation in Pu data. (author)

  20. A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budinich, Marko; Bourdon, Jérémie; Larhlimi, Abdelhalim; Eveillard, Damien

    2017-01-01

    Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs) for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA) and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA). Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity) that take place at the ecosystem scale.

  1. A multi-objective constraint-based approach for modeling genome-scale microbial ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Budinich

    Full Text Available Interplay within microbial communities impacts ecosystems on several scales, and elucidation of the consequent effects is a difficult task in ecology. In particular, the integration of genome-scale data within quantitative models of microbial ecosystems remains elusive. This study advocates the use of constraint-based modeling to build predictive models from recent high-resolution -omics datasets. Following recent studies that have demonstrated the accuracy of constraint-based models (CBMs for simulating single-strain metabolic networks, we sought to study microbial ecosystems as a combination of single-strain metabolic networks that exchange nutrients. This study presents two multi-objective extensions of CBMs for modeling communities: multi-objective flux balance analysis (MO-FBA and multi-objective flux variability analysis (MO-FVA. Both methods were applied to a hot spring mat model ecosystem. As a result, multiple trade-offs between nutrients and growth rates, as well as thermodynamically favorable relative abundances at community level, were emphasized. We expect this approach to be used for integrating genomic information in microbial ecosystems. Following models will provide insights about behaviors (including diversity that take place at the ecosystem scale.

  2. Modeling for regional ecosystem sustainable development under uncertainty--A case study of Dongying, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; You, L; Jin, S W

    2015-11-15

    In this study, a superiority-inferiority two-stage stochastic programming (STSP) method is developed for planning regional ecosystem sustainable development. STSP can tackle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions; it can be used to analyze various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. STSP is applied to a real case of planning regional ecosystem sustainable development in the City of Dongying, where ecosystem services valuation approaches are incorporated within the optimization process. Regional ecosystem can provide direct and indirect services and intangible benefits to local economy. Land trading mechanism is introduced for planning the regional ecosystem's sustainable development, where wetlands are buyers who would protect regional ecosystem components and self-organization and maintain its integrity. Results of regional ecosystem activities, land use patterns, and land trading schemes have been obtained. Results reveal that, although large-scale reclamation projects can bring benefits to the local economy development, they can also bring with negative effects to the coastal ecosystem; among all industry activities oil field is the major contributor with a large number of pollutant discharges into local ecosystem. Results also show that uncertainty has an important role in successfully launching such a land trading program and trading scheme can provide more effective manner to sustain the regional ecosystem. The findings can help decision makers to realize the sustainable development of ecological resources in the process of rapid industrialization, as well as the integration of economic and ecological benefits. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Generating process model collections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Z.; Dijkman, R.M.; Grefen, P.W.P.J.

    2017-01-01

    Business process management plays an important role in the management of organizations. More and more organizations describe their operations as business processes. It is common for organizations to have collections of thousands of business processes, but for reasons of confidentiality these

  4. The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Avila, Rodolfo [Facilia AB, Bromma (Sweden)

    2006-11-15

    The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

  5. The ecosystem models used for dose assessments in SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, Rodolfo

    2006-11-01

    The estimation of doses to humans in the main scenarios considered in SR-Can is carried out by multiplying the radionuclide releases to the biosphere by Landscape Dose Factors (LDF), which provide estimates of doses incurred by unit releases of activity of a specific radionuclide to the landscape. The landscape models considered in deriving the LDFs consist of a set of interconnected ecosystem models of different types, including aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems comprise the sea, lakes and rivers. The terrestrial ecosystems include agricultural lands, forests and mires. In this report dose conversion factor for each individual ecosystem are reported. Two release cases are considered in the report: a constant unit release rate during 10,000 years and a pulse release, i.e. a unit release during one year. For deriving the LDF values, at each considered time period an ecosystem model is assigned to each landscape object, according to the projected succession of ecosystems in the objects. The applied ecosystem models have been described elsewhere, but some modifications have been made which are described in this report. The main modifications applied to the models are to consider releases through bottom sediments and to consider upstream fluxes for the estimation of the fluxes of radionuclides between the different landscape objects. To facilitate calculations of the radionuclide concentrations in the ingested food, aggregated transfer factors are derived for each ecosystem type. These relate the radionuclide concentrations in the edible carbon production in different ecosystem types to the radionuclide concentrations in the main environmental substrates of the ecosystems, i.e. the water in aquatic ecosystems and the soil in the terrestrial ecosystems. The report provides a description of the methods applied for the derivation of aggregated transfer factors for each ecosystem type and for irrigation. These factors are applicable for situations of

  6. Sensitivity of euphotic zone properties to CDOM variations in marine ecosystem models

    OpenAIRE

    Urtizberea, Agurtzane; Dupont, Nicolas; Rosland, Rune; Aksnes, Dag L.

    2013-01-01

    In marine ecosystem models, the underwater light intensity is commonly characterized by the shading of phytoplankton in addition to a background light attenuation coefficient. Colour dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is an important component of the background light attenuation, and we investigate how variation in CDOM attenuation affects euphotic zone properties in a general marine ecosystem model. Our results suggest that euphotic zone properties are highly sensitive to CDOM variations occurr...

  7. Simulating the carbon balance in reclaimed forest ecosystems with the FORECAST model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welham, C. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Forest Sciences, Forest Ecosystem Simulation Group; ForRx Consulting, Belcarra, BC (Canada); 3GreenTree Ecosystem Services Ltd., Belcarra, BC (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Large emission sources are beginning to report their carbon footprint on an annual basis as a result of government mandates, shareholder demand for disclosure of a company's risk to climate change, and as part of corporate social responsibility initiatives. Oil sands mining is a carbon intensive activity from the perspective of carbon dioxide emissions. The intensity of carbon emissions can be mitigated through technological and process innovations. However, reclamation is the only mining-related activity that directly removes atmospheric carbon dioxide. This presentation described a modeling exercise that had 3 principal objectives, notably to simulate the carbon balance in a developing reclaimed upland forest ecosystem; to explore the relative change in carbon pools over time; and to compare the carbon balance of the reclaimed ecosystem to its natural analogue. The presentation provided a description of the model and methodology and discussed the simulation protocol. Imperial Oil's Kearl Lake operation, which was used as a test case, showed that approximately 83,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare can be sequestered per year as a result of reclamation. tabs., figs.

  8. A Strategy for Describing the Biosphere at Candidate Sites for Repositories of Nuclear Waste: Linking Ecosystem and Landscape Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern; Kautsky, Ulrik; Lindborg, Regina; Bradshaw, Clare

    2006-01-01

    To provide information necessary for a license application for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. has started site investigations at two sites in Sweden. In this paper, we present a strategy to integrate site-specific ecosystem data into spatially explicit models needed for safety assessment studies and the environmental impact assessment. The site-specific description of ecosystems is developed by building discipline-specific models from primary data and by identifying interactions and stocks and flows of matter among functional units at the sites. The conceptual model is a helpful initial tool for defining properties needed to quantify system processes, which may reveal new interfaces between disciplines, providing a variety of new opportunities to enhance the understanding of the linkages between ecosystem characteristics and the functional properties of landscapes. This type of integrated ecosystem-landscape characterization model has an important role in forming the implementation of a safety assessment for a deep repository

  9. What makes process models understandable?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mendling, J.; Reijers, H.A.; Cardoso, J.; Alonso, G.; Dadam, P.; Rosemann, M.

    2007-01-01

    Despite that formal and informal quality aspects are of significant importance to business process modeling, there is only little empirical work reported on process model quality and its impact factors. In this paper we investigate understandability as a proxy for quality of process models and focus

  10. The Port Service Ecosystem Research Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Wenjuan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Under the new normal of China’s economy, the competition among the port enterprises is not only the competition of the core competence of the port, the port industry chain or the port supply chain, but also the competition of the port service ecosystem. In this paper, the concept and characteristics of the port service ecosystem is discussed, a hierarchical model of the port service ecosystem is constructed. As an extended logistic model, Lotka-Volterra model is applied to study the competitive co-evolution and mutually beneficial co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem. This paper simulates the co-evolution of enterprises in the port service ecosystem by using MATLAB programming. The simulation results show that the breadth of the niche of the enterprises is changing with the change of the competition coefficient and the coefficient of mutual benefit in the port service ecosystem. Based on that, some proposals are put forward to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the port service ecosystem.

  11. Modeling dynamics of western juniper under climate change in a semiarid ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, R.; Glenn, N. F.; Flores, A. N.

    2013-12-01

    Modeling future vegetation dynamics in response to climate change and disturbances such as fire relies heavily on model parameterization. Fine-scale field-based measurements can provide the necessary parameters for constraining models at a larger scale. But the time- and labor-intensive nature of field-based data collection leads to sparse sampling and significant spatial uncertainties in retrieved parameters. In this study we quantify the fine-scale carbon dynamics and uncertainty of juniper woodland in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southern Idaho, which is a proposed critical zone observatory (CZO) site for soil carbon processes. We leverage field-measured vegetation data along with airborne lidar and timeseries Landsat imagery to initialize a state-and-transition model (VDDT) and a process-based fire-model (FlamMap) to examine the vegetation dynamics in response to stochastic fire events and climate change. We utilize recently developed and novel techniques to measure biomass and canopy characteristics of western juniper at the individual tree scale using terrestrial and airborne laser scanning techniques in RCEW. These fine-scale data are upscaled across the watershed for the VDDT and FlamMap models. The results will immediately improve our understanding of fine-scale dynamics and carbon stocks and fluxes of woody vegetation in a semi-arid ecosystem. Moreover, quantification of uncertainty will also provide a basis for generating ensembles of spatially-explicit alternative scenarios to guide future land management decisions in the region.

  12. Attributing Asymmetric Productivity Responses to Internal Ecosystem Dynamics and External Drivers Using Probabilistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolari, A.; Goulden, M.

    2017-12-01

    A major challenge to interpreting asymmetric changes in ecosystem productivity is the attribution of these changes to external climate forcing or to internal ecophysiological processes that respond to these drivers (e.g., photosynthesis response to drying soil). For example, positive asymmetry in productivity can result from either positive skewness in the distribution of annual rainfall amount or from negative curvature in the productivity response to annual rainfall. To analyze the relative influences of climate and ecosystem dynamics on both positive and negative asymmetry in multi-year ANPP experiments, we use a multi-scale coupled ecosystem water-carbon model to interpret field experimental results that span gradients of rainfall skewness and ANPP response curvature. The model integrates rainfall variability, soil moisture dynamics, and net carbon assimilation from the daily to inter-annual scales. From the underlying physical basis of the model, we compute the joint probability distribution of the minimum and maximum ANPP for an annual ANPP experiment of N years. The distribution is used to estimate the likelihood that either positive or negative asymmetry will be observed in an experiment, given the annual rainfall distribution and the ANPP response curve. We estimate the total asymmetry as the mode of this joint distribution and the relative contribution attributable to rainfall skewness as the mode for a linear ANPP response curve. Applied to data from several long-term ANPP experiments, we find that there is a wide range of observed ANPP asymmetry (positive and negative) and a spectrum of contributions from internal and external factors. We identify the soil water holding capacity relative to the mean rain event depth as a critical ecosystem characteristic that controls the non-linearity of the ANPP response and positive curvature at high rainfall. Further, the seasonal distribution of rainfall is shown to control the presence or absence of negative

  13. Trophic models: What do we learn about Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay ecosystems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moullec, Fabien; Gascuel, Didier; Bentorcha, Karim; Guénette, Sylvie; Robert, Marianne

    2017-08-01

    Trophic models are key tools to go beyond the single-species approaches used in stock assessments to adopt a more holistic view and implement the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management (EAFM). This study aims to: (i) analyse the trophic functioning of the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay, (ii) investigate ecosystem changes over the 1980-2013 period and, (iii) explore the response to management measures at the food web scale. Ecopath models were built for each ecosystem for years 1980 and 2013, and Ecosim models were fitted to time series data of biomass and catches. EcoTroph diagnosis showed that in both ecosystems, fishing pressure focuses on high trophic levels (TLs) and, to a lesser extent, on intermediate TLs. However, the interplay between local environmental conditions, species composition and ecosystem functioning could explain the different responses to fisheries management observed between these two contiguous ecosystems. Indeed, over the study period, the ecosystem's exploitation status has improved in the Bay of Biscay but not in the Celtic Sea. This improvement does not seem to be sufficient to achieve the objectives of an EAFM, as high trophic levels were still overexploited in 2013 and simulations conducted with Ecosim in the Bay of Biscay indicate that at current fishing effort the biomass will not be rebuilt by 2030. The ecosystem's response to a reduction in fishing mortality depends on which trophic levels receive protection. Reducing fishing mortality on pelagic fish, instead of on demersal fish, appears more efficient at maximising catch and total biomass and at conserving both top-predator and intermediate TLs. Such advice-oriented trophic models should be used on a regular basis to monitor the health status of marine food webs and analyse the trade-offs between multiple objectives in an ecosystem-based fisheries management context.

  14. Fogwater deposition modeling for terrestrial ecosystems: A review of developments and measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katata, Genki

    2014-07-01

    Recent progress in modeling fogwater (and low cloud water) deposition over terrestrial ecosystems during fogwater droplet interception by vegetative surfaces is reviewed. Several types of models and parameterizations for fogwater deposition are discussed with comparing assumptions, input parameter requirements, and modeled processes. The relationships among deposition velocity of fogwater (Vd) in model results, wind speed, and plant species structures associated with literature values are gathered for model validation. Quantitative comparisons between model results and observations in forest environments revealed differences as large as 2 orders of magnitude, which are likely caused by uncertainties in measurement techniques over heterogeneous landscapes. Results from the literature review show that Vd values ranged from 2.1 to 8.0 cm s-1 for short vegetation, whereas Vd = 7.7-92 cm s-1 and 0-20 cm s-1 for forests measured by throughfall-based methods and the eddy covariance method, respectively. This review also discusses the current understanding of the impacts of fogwater deposition on atmosphere-land interactions and over complex terrain based on results from numerical studies. Lastly, future research priorities in innovative modeling and observational approaches for model validation are outlined.

  15. Impacts of Environmental Nanoparticles on Chemical, Biological and Hydrological Processes in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla

    2012-01-01

    This chapter provides insights on nanoparticle (NP) influence or control on the extent and timescales of single or coupled physical, chemical, biological and hydrological reactions and processes that occur in terrestrial ecosystems. Examples taken from the literature that show how terrestrial NPs may determine the fate of the aqueous and sorbed (adsorbed or precipitated) chemical species of nutrients and contaminants, are also included in this chapter. Specifically, in the first section, chapter objectives, term definitions and discussions on size-dependent properties, the origin and occurrence of NP in terrestrial ecosystems and NP toxicity, are included. In the second section, the topic of the binary interactions of NPs of different sizes, shapes, concentrations and ages with the soil solution chemical species is covered, focusing on NP formation, stability, aggregation, ability to serve as sorbents, or surface-mediated precipitation catalysts, or electron donors and acceptors. In the third section, aspects of the interactions in the ternary systems composed of environmental NP, nutrient/contaminant chemical species, and the soil/sediment matrix are discussed, focusing on the inhibitory and catalytic effects of environmental NP on nutrient/contaminant advective mobility and mass transfer, adsorption and desorption, dissolution and precipitation and redox reactions that occur in terrestrial ecosystems. These three review sections are followed by a short summary of future research needs and directions, the acknowledgements, the list of the references, and the figures.

  16. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  17. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

  18. Modelling impacts of second generation bioenergy production on Ecosystem Services in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henner, Dagmar; Smith, Pete; Davies, Christian; McNamara, Niall

    2016-04-01

    Bioenergy crops are an important source of renewable energy and are a possible mechanism to mitigate global climate warming, by replacing fossil fuel energy with higher greenhouse gas emissions. There is, however, uncertainty about the impacts of the growth of bioenergy crops on ecosystem services. This uncertainty is further enhanced by the unpredictable climate change currently going on. The goal of this project is to develop a comprehensive model that covers high impact, policy relevant ecosystem services at a Continental scale including biodiversity and pollination, water and air security, erosion control and soil security, GHG emissions, soil C and cultural services like tourism value. The technical distribution potential and likely yield of second generation energy crops, such as Miscanthus, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) with willow, poplar, eucalyptus and other broadleaf species and Short Rotation Forestry (SRF), is currently being modelled using ECOSSE, DayCent, SalixFor and MiscanFor, and ecosystem models will be used to examine the impacts of these crops on ecosystem services. The project builds on models of energy crop production, biodiversity, soil impacts, greenhouse gas emissions and other ecosystem services, and on work undertaken in the UK on the ETI-funded ELUM project (www.elum.ac.uk). In addition, methods like water footprint tools, tourism value maps and ecosystem valuation tools and models (e.g. InVest, TEEB database, GREET LCA Model, World Business Council for Sustainable Development corporate ecosystem valuation, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Ecosystem Services Framework) will be utilised. Research will focus on optimisation of land use change feedbacks on above named ecosystem services, impact on food security, land management practices and impacts from climate change. We will present results for GHG emissions and soil organic carbon change after different land use change scenarios (e.g. arable to Miscanthus, forest to SRF), and

  19. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T. [Centre for GeoBiosphere Science, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Lund University, Soelvegatan 12, S-223 62 Lund (Sweden)

    2006-10-15

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  20. Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koca, D.; Smith, B.; Sykes, M.T.

    2006-01-01

    This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO2 change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) - HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 - were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st

  1. Fine Scale ANUClimate Data for Ecosystem Modeling and Assessment of Plant Functional Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, M. F.; Kesteven, J. L.; Xu, T.; Evans, B. J.; Togashi, H. F.; Stein, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    High resolution spatially extended values of climate variables play a central role in the assessment of climate and projected future climate in ecosystem modeling. The ground based meteorological network remains a key resource for deriving these spatially extended climate variables. We report on the production, and applications, of new anomaly based fine scale spatial interpolations of key climate variables at daily and monthly time scale, across the Australian continent. The methods incorporate several innovations that have significantly improved spatial predictive accuracy, as well as providing a platform for the incorporation of additional remotely sensed data. The interpolated climate data are supporting many continent-wide ecosystem modeling applications and are playing a key role in testing optimality hypotheses associated with plant functional types (PFTs). The accuracy, and robustness to data error, of anomaly-based interpolation has been enhanced by incorporating physical process aspects of the different climate variables and employing robust statistical methods implemented in the ANUSPLIN package. New regression procedures have also been developed to estimate "background" monthly climate normals from all stations with minimal records to substantially increase the density of supporting spatial networks. Monthly mean temperature interpolation has been enhanced by incorporating process based coastal effects that have reduced predictive error by around 10%. Overall errors in interpolated monthly temperature fields are around 25% less than errors reported by an earlier study. For monthly and daily precipitation, a new anomaly structure has been devised to take account of the skewness in precipitation data and the large proportion of zero values that present significant challenges to standard interpolation methods. The many applications include continent-wide Gross Primary Production modeling and assessing constraints on light and water use efficiency derived

  2. From Cascade to Bottom-Up Ecosystem Services Model: How Does Social Cohesion Emerge from Urban Agriculture?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Petit-Boix

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Given the expansion of urban agriculture (UA, we need to understand how this system provides ecosystem services, including foundational societal needs such as social cohesion, i.e., people’s willingness to cooperate with one another. Although social cohesion in UA has been documented, there is no framework for its emergence and how it can be modeled within a sustainability framework. In this study, we address this literature gap by showing how the popular cascade ecosystem services model can be modified to include social structures. We then transform the cascade model into a bottom-up causal framework for UA. In this bottom-up framework, basic biophysical (e.g., land availability and social (e.g., leadership ecosystem structures and processes lead to human activities (e.g., learning that can foster specific human attitudes and feelings (e.g., trust. These attitudes and feelings, when aggregated (e.g., social network, generate an ecosystem value of social cohesion. These cause-effect relationships can support the development of causality pathways in social life cycle assessment (S-LCA and further our understanding of the mechanisms behind social impacts and benefits. The framework also supports UA studies by showing the sustainability of UA as an emergent food supplier in cities.

  3. A New Conceptual Model for Business Ecosystem Visualization and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Felipe Hupsel Vaz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has the objective of plotting the effects of network externalities and superstar software for the visualization and analysis of industry ecosystems. The output is made possible by gathering sales from a tracking website, associating each sale to a single consumer and by using a network visualization software. The result is a graph that shows strategic positioning of publishers and platforms, serving as a strategic tool for both academics and professionals. The approach is scalable to other industries and can be used to support analysis on mergers, acquisitions and alliances.

  4. Species effects on ecosystem processes are modified by faunal responses to habitat composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulling, Mark T; Solan, Martin; Dyson, Kirstie E; Hernandez-Milian, Gema; Luque, Patricia; Pierce, Graham J; Raffaelli, Dave; Paterson, David M; White, Piran C L

    2008-12-01

    Heterogeneity is a well-recognized feature of natural environments, and the spatial distribution and movement of individual species is primarily driven by resource requirements. In laboratory experiments designed to explore how different species drive ecosystem processes, such as nutrient release, habitat heterogeneity is often seen as something which must be rigorously controlled for. Most small experimental systems are therefore spatially homogeneous, and the link between environmental heterogeneity and its effects on the redistribution of individuals and species, and on ecosystem processes, has not been fully explored. In this paper, we used a mesocosm system to investigate the relationship between habitat composition, species movement and sediment nutrient release for each of four functionally contrasting species of marine benthic invertebrate macrofauna. For each species, various habitat configurations were generated by selectively enriching patches of sediment with macroalgae, a natural source of spatial variability in intertidal mudflats. We found that the direction and extent of faunal movement between patches differs with species identity, density and habitat composition. Combinations of these factors lead to concomitant changes in nutrient release, such that habitat composition effects are modified by species identity (in the case of NH4-N) and by species density (in the case of PO4-P). It is clear that failure to accommodate natural patterns of spatial heterogeneity in such studies may result in an incomplete understanding of system behaviour. This will be particularly important for future experiments designed to explore the effects of species richness on ecosystem processes, where the complex interactions reported here for single species may be compounded when species are brought together in multi-species combinations.

  5. Global Monthly CO2 Flux Inversion Based on Results of Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, F.; Chen, J.; Peters, W.; Krol, M.

    2008-12-01

    Most of our understanding of the sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 has come from inverse studies of atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. However, the number of currently available observation stations and our ability to simulate the diurnal planetary boundary layer evolution over continental regions essentially limit the number of regions that can be reliably inverted globally, especially over continental areas. In order to overcome these restrictions, a nested inverse modeling system was developed based on the Bayesian principle for estimating carbon fluxes of 30 regions in North America and 20 regions for the rest of the globe. Inverse modeling was conducted in monthly steps using CO2 concentration measurements of 5 years (2000 - 2005) with the following two models: (a) An atmospheric transport model (TM5) is used to generate the transport matrix where the diurnal variation n of atmospheric CO2 concentration is considered to enhance the use of the afternoon-hour average CO2 concentration measurements over the continental sites. (b) A process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (BEPS) is used to produce hourly step carbon fluxes, which could minimize the limitation due to our inability to solve the inverse problem in a high resolution, as the background of our inversion. We will present our recent results achieved through a combination of the bottom-up modeling with BEPS and the top-down modeling based on TM5 driven by offline meteorological fields generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMFW).

  6. Net ecosystem productivity of temperate and boreal forests after clearcutting a Fluxnet-Canada measurement and modelling synthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grant, R. F. (Dept. of Renewable Resources, Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, (Canada)), e-mail: robert.grant@ales.ualberta.ca; Barr, A. G. (Climate Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Saskatoon (Canada)); Black, T. A. (Faculty of Land and Food Systems, Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, (Canada)); Margolis, H. A. (Faculte de Foresterie et de Geomatique, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, Universite Laval, Quebec (Canada)); McCaughey, J. H. (Dept. of Geography, Queen' s Univ., Kingston (Canada)); Trofymow, J. A. (Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria (Canada))

    2010-11-15

    Clearcutting strongly affects subsequent forest net ecosystem productivity (NEP). Hypotheses for ecological controls on NEP in the ecosystem model ecosys were tested with CO{sub 2} fluxes measured by eddy covariance (EC) in three post clearcut conifer chronosequences in different ecological zones across Canada. In the model, microbial colonization of postharvest fine and woody debris drove heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and hence decomposition, microbial growth, N mineralization and asymbiotic N{sub 2} fixation. These processes controlled root N uptake, and thereby CO{sub 2} fixation in regrowing vegetation. Interactions among soil and plant processes allowed the model to simulate hourly CO{sub 2} fluxes and annual NEP within the uncertainty of EC measurements from 2003 to 2007 over forest stands from 1 to 80 yr of age in all three chronosequences without site- or species-specific parameterization. The model was then used to study the impacts of increasing harvest removals on subsequent C stocks at one of the chronosequence sites. Model results indicated that increasing harvest removals would hasten recovery of NEP during the first 30 yr after clearcutting, but would reduce ecosystem C stocks by about 15% of the increased removals at the end of an 80-yr harvest cycle

  7. Modeling the Effects of Ecosystem Fragmentation and Restoration: Management Models for Mobile Animals. Volume 2. Appendices 3-7

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sisk, Thomas; Battin, James B; Brand, Arriana; Ries, Leslie; Noon, Barry R

    2003-01-01

    ..., a process of timber harvesting and prescribed burns designed to return the ponderosa pine forest ecosystem to a state similar to that in which it existed prior to European settlement of the Southwest...

  8. Challenges and opportunities in land surface modelling of savanna ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Whitley

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The savanna complex is a highly diverse global biome that occurs within the seasonally dry tropical to sub-tropical equatorial latitudes and are structurally and functionally distinct from grasslands and forests. Savannas are open-canopy environments that encompass a broad demographic continuum, often characterised by a changing dominance between C3-tree and C4-grass vegetation, where frequent environmental disturbances such as fire modulates the balance between ephemeral and perennial life forms. Climate change is projected to result in significant changes to the savanna floristic structure, with increases to woody biomass expected through CO2 fertilisation in mesic savannas and increased tree mortality expected through increased rainfall interannual variability in xeric savannas. The complex interaction between vegetation and climate that occurs in savannas has traditionally challenged terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs, which aim to simulate the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface to predict responses of vegetation to changing in environmental forcing. In this review, we examine whether TBMs are able to adequately represent savanna fluxes and what implications potential deficiencies may have for climate change projection scenarios that rely on these models. We start by highlighting the defining characteristic traits and behaviours of savannas, how these differ across continents and how this information is (or is not represented in the structural framework of many TBMs. We highlight three dynamic processes that we believe directly affect the water use and productivity of the savanna system: phenology, root-water access and fire dynamics. Following this, we discuss how these processes are represented in many current-generation TBMs and whether they are suitable for simulating savanna fluxes.Finally, we give an overview of how eddy-covariance observations in combination with other data sources can be used in model

  9. Photodegradation processes in arid ecosystems: controlling factors and potential application in land restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Luna-Ramos, Lourdes; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Sole Benet, Albert

    2017-04-01

    Water availability plays a fundamental part in controlling biotic processes in arid ecosystems. However, recent evidence suggests that other decisive drivers take part in these processes. Despite low annual rainfall and microbial activity, unexplained high rates of litter decomposition, net nitrogen mineralization, soil enzymatic activity and carbon turnover have been observed in arid ecosystems. These observations have been partly explained by photodegradation, a process that consists of the breakdown of organic matter via solar radiation (UV) and that can increase decomposition rates and lead to changes in the balance of carbon and nutrients between plants, soil and atmosphere. A complete understanding of these mechanisms and its drivers in arid ecosystems remains a critical challenge for the scientific community at the global level. In this research, we conducted a multi-site field experiment to test the effects of photodegradation on decomposition of organic amendments used in ecosystem restoration. The study was carried out during 12 months in two study areas: the Pilbara region in Western Australia (Southern Hemisphere) and the Cabo de Gata Nijar Natural Park, South Spain (Northern Hemisphere). In both sites, four treatments were applied in replicated plots (1x1 m, n=4) that included a control (C) with no soil amendment; organic amendment covering the soil surface (AS); organic amendment incorporated into the soil (AI); and a combination of both techniques, both covering the surface and incorporated into the soil (AS-AI). Different organic amendments (native mulch versus compost) and soil substrates were used at each site according to local practices, but in both sites these were applied to increase soil organic matter up to 2%. At the two locations, a radiometer and a logger with a soil temperature and soil moisture probe were installed to monitor UV radiation and soil conditions for the duration of the trial. Soil microbial activity, soil CO2 efflux, and

  10. Alternative ways of using field-based estimates to calibrate ecosystem models and their implications for carbon cycle studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujie; Zhuang, Qianlai; McGuire, David; Liu, Yaling; Chen, Min

    2013-01-01

    Model-data fusion is a process in which field observations are used to constrain model parameters. How observations are used to constrain parameters has a direct impact on the carbon cycle dynamics simulated by ecosystem models. In this study, we present an evaluation of several options for the use of observations in modeling regional carbon dynamics and explore the implications of those options. We calibrated the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model on a hierarchy of three vegetation classification levels for the Alaskan boreal forest: species level, plant-functional-type level (PFT level), and biome level, and we examined the differences in simulated carbon dynamics. Species-specific field-based estimates were directly used to parameterize the model for species-level simulations, while weighted averages based on species percent cover were used to generate estimates for PFT- and biome-level model parameterization. We found that calibrated key ecosystem process parameters differed substantially among species and overlapped for species that are categorized into different PFTs. Our analysis of parameter sets suggests that the PFT-level parameterizations primarily reflected the dominant species and that functional information of some species were lost from the PFT-level parameterizations. The biome-level parameterization was primarily representative of the needleleaf PFT and lost information on broadleaf species or PFT function. Our results indicate that PFT-level simulations may be potentially representative of the performance of species-level simulations while biome-level simulations may result in biased estimates. Improved theoretical and empirical justifications for grouping species into PFTs or biomes are needed to adequately represent the dynamics of ecosystem functioning and structure.

  11. Modeling Carbon Turnover in Five Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Boreal Zone Using Multiple Criteria of Acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Louise; Gustafsson, David; Jansson, Per-Erik

    2006-01-01

    Estimates of carbon fluxes and turnover in ecosystems are key elements in the understanding of climate change and in predicting the accumulation of trace elements in the biosphere. In this paper we present estimates of carbon fluxes and turnover times for five terrestrial ecosystems using a modeling approach. Multiple criteria of acceptance were used to parameterize the model, thus incorporating large amounts of multi-faceted empirical data in the simulations in a standardized manner. Mean turnover times of carbon were found to be rather similar between systems with a few exceptions, even though the size of both the pools and the fluxes varied substantially. Depending on the route of the carbon through the ecosystem, turnover times varied from less than one year to more than one hundred, which may be of importance when considering trace element transport and retention. The parameterization method was useful both in the estimation of unknown parameters, and to identify variability in carbon turnover in the selected ecosystems

  12. Modelling carbon cycle of agro-forest ecosystems in Lombardy (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colombo R

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a methodology for the estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP, Net Primary Production (NPP and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP for the main agricultural and forest ecosystems of the Lombardia Region (Italy. The MOD17 model was parameterized according to the different agro-forestry ecosystems and applied at regional scale by using satellite data with a spatial resolution of 250m. The high spatial resolution along with fine classification agro-forestry ecosystems has allowed to accurately analyze the carbon budget of an extremely fragmented and complex environment such as the Lombardia Region. Modeling results showed the role of the forests in the carbon budget at regional scale and represent important information layer for the spatial analysis and for inferring the inter-annual variability of carbon sequestration due to impacts of extreme events and recent climate change (e.g., drought, heat wave, flooding, fires.

  13. Mapping rice ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions using multiscale imagery and biogeochemical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas, W.; Torbick, N.

    2017-12-01

    Rice greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in production hot spots have been mapped using multiscale satellite imagery and a processed-based biogeochemical model. The multiscale Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical imagery were co-processed and fed into a machine leanring framework to map paddy attributes that are tuned using field observations and surveys. Geospatial maps of rice extent, crop calendar, hydroperiod, and cropping intensity were then used to parameterize the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model to estimate emissions. Results, in the Red River Detla for example, show total methane emissions at 345.4 million kgCH4-C equivalent to 11.5 million tonnes CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent). We further assessed the role of Alternative Wetting and Drying and the impact on GHG and yield across production hot spots with uncertainty estimates. The approach described in this research provides a framework for using SAR to derive maps of rice and landscape characteristics to drive process models like DNDC. These types of tools and approaches will support the next generation of Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) to combat climate change and support ecosystem service markets.

  14. An improved state-parameter analysis of ecosystem models using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Hollinger, D.Y.

    2008-01-01

    Much of the effort spent in developing data assimilation methods for carbon dynamics analysis has focused on estimating optimal values for either model parameters or state variables. The main weakness of estimating parameter values alone (i.e., without considering state variables) is that all errors from input, output, and model structure are attributed to model parameter uncertainties. On the other hand, the accuracy of estimating state variables may be lowered if the temporal evolution of parameter values is not incorporated. This research develops a smoothed ensemble Kalman filter (SEnKF) by combining ensemble Kalman filter with kernel smoothing technique. SEnKF has following characteristics: (1) to estimate simultaneously the model states and parameters through concatenating unknown parameters and state variables into a joint state vector; (2) to mitigate dramatic, sudden changes of parameter values in parameter sampling and parameter evolution process, and control narrowing of parameter variance which results in filter divergence through adjusting smoothing factor in kernel smoothing algorithm; (3) to assimilate recursively data into the model and thus detect possible time variation of parameters; and (4) to address properly various sources of uncertainties stemming from input, output and parameter uncertainties. The SEnKF is tested by assimilating observed fluxes of carbon dioxide and environmental driving factor data from an AmeriFlux forest station located near Howland, Maine, USA, into a partition eddy flux model. Our analysis demonstrates that model parameters, such as light use efficiency, respiration coefficients, minimum and optimum temperatures for photosynthetic activity, and others, are highly constrained by eddy flux data at daily-to-seasonal time scales. The SEnKF stabilizes parameter values quickly regardless of the initial values of the parameters. Potential ecosystem light use efficiency demonstrates a strong seasonality. Results show that the

  15. Reverse engineering model structures for soil and ecosystem respiration: the potential of gene expression programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Ilie

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Accurate model representation of land–atmosphere carbon fluxes is essential for climate projections. However, the exact responses of carbon cycle processes to climatic drivers often remain uncertain. Presently, knowledge derived from experiments, complemented by a steadily evolving body of mechanistic theory, provides the main basis for developing such models. The strongly increasing availability of measurements may facilitate new ways of identifying suitable model structures using machine learning. Here, we explore the potential of gene expression programming (GEP to derive relevant model formulations based solely on the signals present in data by automatically applying various mathematical transformations to potential predictors and repeatedly evolving the resulting model structures. In contrast to most other machine learning regression techniques, the GEP approach generates readable models that allow for prediction and possibly for interpretation. Our study is based on two cases: artificially generated data and real observations. Simulations based on artificial data show that GEP is successful in identifying prescribed functions, with the prediction capacity of the models comparable to four state-of-the-art machine learning methods (random forests, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and kernel ridge regressions. Based on real observations we explore the responses of the different components of terrestrial respiration at an oak forest in south-eastern England. We find that the GEP-retrieved models are often better in prediction than some established respiration models. Based on their structures, we find previously unconsidered exponential dependencies of respiration on seasonal ecosystem carbon assimilation and water dynamics. We noticed that the GEP models are only partly portable across respiration components, the identification of a general terrestrial respiration model possibly prevented by equifinality issues. Overall

  16. Reverse engineering model structures for soil and ecosystem respiration: the potential of gene expression programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, Iulia; Dittrich, Peter; Carvalhais, Nuno; Jung, Martin; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Migliavacca, Mirco; Morison, James I. L.; Sippel, Sebastian; Subke, Jens-Arne; Wilkinson, Matthew; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2017-09-01

    Accurate model representation of land-atmosphere carbon fluxes is essential for climate projections. However, the exact responses of carbon cycle processes to climatic drivers often remain uncertain. Presently, knowledge derived from experiments, complemented by a steadily evolving body of mechanistic theory, provides the main basis for developing such models. The strongly increasing availability of measurements may facilitate new ways of identifying suitable model structures using machine learning. Here, we explore the potential of gene expression programming (GEP) to derive relevant model formulations based solely on the signals present in data by automatically applying various mathematical transformations to potential predictors and repeatedly evolving the resulting model structures. In contrast to most other machine learning regression techniques, the GEP approach generates readable models that allow for prediction and possibly for interpretation. Our study is based on two cases: artificially generated data and real observations. Simulations based on artificial data show that GEP is successful in identifying prescribed functions, with the prediction capacity of the models comparable to four state-of-the-art machine learning methods (random forests, support vector machines, artificial neural networks, and kernel ridge regressions). Based on real observations we explore the responses of the different components of terrestrial respiration at an oak forest in south-eastern England. We find that the GEP-retrieved models are often better in prediction than some established respiration models. Based on their structures, we find previously unconsidered exponential dependencies of respiration on seasonal ecosystem carbon assimilation and water dynamics. We noticed that the GEP models are only partly portable across respiration components, the identification of a general terrestrial respiration model possibly prevented by equifinality issues. Overall, GEP is a promising

  17. Improving the precision of lake ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying predictors of model uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Read, Emily K.; Solomon, Christopher T.; Adrian, Rita; Hanson, Paul C.

    2014-01-01

    Diel changes in dissolved oxygen are often used to estimate gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) in aquatic ecosystems. Despite the widespread use of this approach to understand ecosystem metabolism, we are only beginning to understand the degree and underlying causes of uncertainty for metabolism model parameter estimates. Here, we present a novel approach to improve the precision and accuracy of ecosystem metabolism estimates by identifying physical metrics that indicate when metabolism estimates are highly uncertain. Using datasets from seventeen instrumented GLEON (Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network) lakes, we discovered that many physical characteristics correlated with uncertainty, including PAR (photosynthetically active radiation, 400-700 nm), daily variance in Schmidt stability, and wind speed. Low PAR was a consistent predictor of high variance in GPP model parameters, but also corresponded with low ER model parameter variance. We identified a threshold (30% of clear sky PAR) below which GPP parameter variance increased rapidly and was significantly greater in nearly all lakes compared with variance on days with PAR levels above this threshold. The relationship between daily variance in Schmidt stability and GPP model parameter variance depended on trophic status, whereas daily variance in Schmidt stability was consistently positively related to ER model parameter variance. Wind speeds in the range of ~0.8-3 m s–1 were consistent predictors of high variance for both GPP and ER model parameters, with greater uncertainty in eutrophic lakes. Our findings can be used to reduce ecosystem metabolism model parameter uncertainty and identify potential sources of that uncertainty.

  18. The Electric Vehicles Ecosystem Model: Construct, Analysis and Identification of Key Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zulkarnain

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a conceptual model of electric vehicles’ (EV ecosystem and value chain build-up. Based on the literature, the research distinguishes the most critical challenges that are on the way of mobility systems’ electrification. Consumers still have some questions that call for answers before they are ready to adopt evs.With regard to technical aspects, some challenges are coming from vehicles, charging infrastructure, battery technology, and standardization. The use of battery in EVs will bring in additional environmental challenges, coming from the battery life cycle for used battery, the manufacturing, and from some materials used and treated in the manufacturing process. The policy aspects include mostly taxation strategies. For most part, established market conditions are still lacking and there are a number of unresolved challenges on both supply and demand side of the EV market.

  19. Activation of the marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS for the Baltic Sea in operational mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzierzbicka-Glowacka, Lidia; Jakacki, Jaromir; Janecki, Maciej; Nowicki, Artur

    2013-04-01

    The paper presents a new marine ecosystem model 3D CEMBS designed for the Baltic Sea. The ecosystem model is incorporated into the 3D POPCICE ocean-ice model. The Current Baltic Sea model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM from the National Center for Atmospheric Research) which was adapted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice model. It consists of the Community Ice Code (CICE model, version 4.0) and the Parallel Ocean Program (version 2.1). The ecosystem model is a biological submodel of the 3D CEMBS. It consists of eleven mass conservation equations. There are eleven partial second-order differential equations of the diffusion type with the advective term for phytoplankton, zooplankton, nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and dissolved and particulate organic matter. This model is an effective tool for solving the problem of ecosystem bioproductivity. The model is forced by 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM). The study was financially supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Research (grants: No N N305 111636, N N306 353239). The partial support for this study was also provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBaltyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract no. POIG 01.01.02-22-011/09. Calculations were carried out at the Academy Computer Centre in Gdańsk.

  20. Variable selection for modelling effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijboer, R.C.; Verdonschot, P.F.M.

    2004-01-01

    Models are needed for forecasting the effects of eutrophication on stream and river ecosystems. Most of the current models do not include differences in local stream characteristics and effects on the biota. To define the most important variables that should be used in a stream eutrophication model,

  1. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  2. Neuroscientific Model of Motivational Process

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Sung-il

    2013-01-01

    Considering the neuroscientific findings on reward, learning, value, decision-making, and cognitive control, motivation can be parsed into three sub processes, a process of generating motivation, a process of maintaining motivation, and a process of regulating motivation. I propose a tentative neuroscientific model of motivational processes which consists of three distinct but continuous sub processes, namely reward-driven approach, value-based decision-making, and goal-directed control. Rewa...

  3. Exploring spatial change and gravity center movement for ecosystem services value using a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and gravity model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yingbin; Chen, Youqi; Tang, Huajun; Yao, Yanmin; Yang, Peng; Chen, Zhongxin

    2011-04-01

    Spatially explicit ecosystem services valuation and change is a newly developing area of research in the field of ecology. Using the Beijing region as a study area, the authors have developed a spatially explicit ecosystem services value index and implemented this to quantify and spatially differentiate ecosystem services value at 1-km grid resolution. A gravity model was developed to trace spatial change in the total ecosystem services value of the Beijing study area from a holistic point of view. Study results show that the total value of ecosystem services for the study area decreased by 19.75% during the period 1996-2006 (3,226.2739 US$×10(6) in 1996, 2,589.0321 US$×10(6) in 2006). However, 27.63% of the total area of the Beijing study area increased in ecosystem services value. Spatial differences in ecosystem services values for both 1996 and 2006 are very clear. The center of gravity of total ecosystem services value for the study area moved 32.28 km northwestward over the 10 years due to intensive human intervention taking place in southeast Beijing. The authors suggest that policy-makers should pay greater attention to ecological protection under conditions of rapid socio-economic development and increase the area of green belt in the southeastern part of Beijing.

  4. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weijerman, Mariska; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Kaplan, Isaac C; Gorton, Rebecca; Leemans, Rik; Mooij, Wolf M; Brainard, Russell E

    2015-01-01

    Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers

  5. An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariska Weijerman

    Full Text Available Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1 ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2 trophic level of the community, 3 biomass of apex predators, 4 biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5 total biomass of living groups and 6 the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations, climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with

  6. Uncovering stability mechanisms in microbial ecosystems - combining microcosm experiments, computational modelling and ecological theory in a multidisciplinary approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrich, Anja; König, Sara; Banitz, Thomas; Centler, Florian; Frank, Karin; Kästner, Matthias; Miltner, Anja; Thullner, Martin; Wick, Lukas

    2015-04-01

    Although bacterial degraders in soil are commonly exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions, the functional performance of the biodegradation processes can often be maintained by resistance and resilience mechanisms. However, there is still a gap in the mechanistic understanding of key factors contributing to the stability of such an ecosystem service. Therefore we developed an integrated approach combining microcosm experiments, simulation models and ecological theory to directly make use of the strengths of these disciplines. In a continuous interplay process, data, hypotheses, and central questions are exchanged between disciplines to initiate new experiments and models to ultimately identify buffer mechanisms and factors providing functional stability. We focus on drying and rewetting-cycles in soil ecosystems, which are a major abiotic driver for bacterial activity. Functional recovery of the system was found to depend on different spatial processes in the computational model. In particular, bacterial motility is a prerequisite for biodegradation if either bacteria or substrate are heterogeneously distributed. Hence, laboratory experiments focussing on bacterial dispersal processes were conducted and confirmed this finding also for functional resistance. Obtained results will be incorporated into the model in the next step. Overall, the combination of computational modelling and laboratory experiments identified spatial processes as the main driving force for functional stability in the considered system, and has proved a powerful methodological approach.

  7. Linking trajectories of land change, land degradation processes and ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smiraglia, D; Ceccarelli, T; Bajocco, S; Salvati, L; Perini, L

    2016-05-01

    Land Degradation (LD) is a complex phenomenon resulting in a progressive reduction in the capacity of providing ecosystem services (ES). Landscape transformations promoting an unsustainable use of land often reveal latent processes of LD. An evaluation carried out in respect to the different ecosystem services is nowadays regarded as the most appropriate approach for assessing the effects of LD. The aim of this study is to develop an evaluation framework for identifying the linkages between land changes, LD processes and ES and suggesting Sustainable Land Management (SLM) options suited to reverse (or mitigate) LD impact. A SWOT analysis was carried out with the aim to identify internal and external factors that are favorable (or unfavorable) to achieve the proposed SLM actions. The study areas are the Fortore valley and the Valpadana, in Italy. The main trajectory identified for the Fortore valley is related to land abandonment due to population aging and the progressive emigration started in the 1950s. The most relevant LD processes are soil erosion and geomorphological instability, affecting regulating services such as natural hazard and erosion control. SLM options should consider interventions to contrast geomorphological instability, the promotion of climate smart agriculture and of typical products, and an efficient water resources management. The main trajectories identified for Valpadana are related to urban expansion and farmland abandonment and, as a consequence, land take due to anthropogenic pressure and woodland expansion as the main LD process. The reduction of food production was identified as the most relevant provisioning service affected. SLM should envisage best practices finalized to water saving and soil consumption reduction: efficient irrigation solutions, climate smart agriculture and zero sealing practices. This study highlights the diagnostic value of the suggested approach where LD processes are elicited from land change trajectories

  8. A spatial ecosystem and populations dynamics model (SEAPODYM) Modeling of tuna and tuna-like populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick; Senina, Inna; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2008-09-01

    An enhanced version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM is presented to describe spatial dynamics of tuna and tuna-like species in the Pacific Ocean at monthly resolution over 1° grid-boxes. The simulations are driven by a bio-physical environment predicted from a coupled ocean physical-biogeochemical model. This new version of SEAPODYM includes expanded definitions of habitat indices, movements, and natural mortality based on empirical evidences. A thermal habitat of tuna species is derived from an individual heat budget model. The feeding habitat is computed according to the accessibility of tuna predator cohorts to different vertically migrating and non-migrating micronekton (mid-trophic) functional groups. The spawning habitat is based on temperature and the coincidence of spawning fish with presence or absence of predators and food for larvae. The successful larval recruitment is linked to spawning stock biomass. Larvae drift with currents, while immature and adult tuna can move of their own volition, in addition to being advected by currents. A food requirement index is computed to adjust locally the natural mortality of cohorts based on food demand and accessibility to available forage components. Together these mechanisms induce bottom-up and top-down effects, and intra- (i.e. between cohorts) and inter-species interactions. The model is now fully operational for running multi-species, multi-fisheries simulations, and the structure of the model allows a validation from multiple data sources. An application with two tuna species showing different biological characteristics, skipjack ( Katsuwonus pelamis) and bigeye ( Thunnus obesus), is presented to illustrate the capacity of the model to capture many important features of spatial dynamics of these two different tuna species in the Pacific Ocean. The actual validation is presented in a companion paper describing the approach to have a rigorous mathematical parameter optimization

  9. Drought-associated changes in climate and their relevance for ecosystem experiments and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. J. De Boeck

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought periods can have important impacts on plant productivity and ecosystem functioning, but climatic conditions other than the lack of precipitation during droughts have never been quantified and have therefore not been considered explicitly in both experimental and modeling studies. Here, we identify which climatic characteristics deviate from normal during droughts and how these deviations could affect plant responses. Analysis of 609 years of daily data from nine Western European meteorological stations reveals that droughts in the studied region are consistently associated with more sunshine (+45 %, increased mean (+1.6 °C and maximum (+2.8 °C air temperatures and vapour pressure deficits that were 51 % higher than under normal conditions. These deviations from normal increase significantly as droughts progress. Using the process-model ORCHIDEE, we simulated droughts consistent with the results of the dataset analysis and compared water and carbon exchange of three different vegetation types during such natural droughts and droughts in which only the precipitation was affected. The comparison revealed contrasting responses: carbon loss was higher under natural drought in grasslands, while increased carbon uptake was found especially in decidious forests. This difference was attributed to better access to water reserves in forest ecosystems which prevented drought stress. This demonstrates that the warmer and sunnier conditions naturally associated with droughts can either improve growth or aggravate drought-related stress, depending on water reserves. As the impacts of including or excluding climatic parameters that correlate with drought are substantial, we propose that both experimental and modeling efforts should take into account other environmental factors than merely precipitation.

  10. Modeling and dynamic monitoring of ecosystem performance in the Yukon River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylie, Bruce K.; Zhang, L.; Ji, Lei; Tieszen, Larry L.; Bliss, N.B.

    2008-01-01

    Central Alaska is ecologically sensitive and experiencing stress in response to marked regional warming. Resource managers would benefit from an improved ability to monitor ecosystem processes in response to climate change, fire, insect damage, and management policies and to predict responses to future climate scenarios. We have developed a method for analyzing ecosystem performance as represented by the growing season integral of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), which is a measure of greenness that can be interpreted in terms of plant growth or photosynthetic activity (gross primary productivity). The approach illustrates the status and trends of ecosystem changes and separates the influences of climate and local site conditions from the influences of disturbances and land management.We emphasize the ability to quantify ecosystem processes, not simply changes in land cover, across the entire period of the remote sensing archive (Wylie and others, 2008). The method builds upon remotely sensed measures of vegetation greenness for each growing season. By itself, however, a time series of greenness often reflects annual climate variations in temperature and precipitation. Our method seeks to remove the influence of climate so that changes in underlying ecological conditions are identified and quantified. We define an "expected ecosystem performance" to represent the greenness response expected in a particular year given the climate of that year. We distinguish "performance anomalies" as cases where the ecosystem response is significantly different from the expected ecosystem performance. Maps of the performance anomalies (fig. 1) and trends in the anomalies give valuable information on the ecosystems for land managers and policy makers at a resolution of 1 km to 250 m.

  11. Growing C4 perennial grass for bioenergy using a new Agro-BGC ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Vittorio, A. V.; Anderson, R. S.; Miller, N. L.; Running, S. W.

    2009-12-01

    Accurate, spatially gridded estimates of bioenergy crop yields require 1) biophysically accurate crop growth models and 2) careful parameterization of unavailable inputs to these models. To meet the first requirement we have added the capacity to simulate C4 perennial grass as a bioenergy crop to the Biome-BGC ecosystem model. This new model, hereafter referred to as Agro-BGC, includes enzyme driven C4 photosynthesis, individual live and dead leaf, stem, and root carbon/nitrogen pools, separate senescence and litter fall processes, fruit growth, optional annual seeding, flood irrigation, a growing degree day phenology with a killing frost option, and a disturbance handler that effectively simulates fertilization, harvest, fire, and incremental irrigation. There are four Agro-BGC vegetation parameters that are unavailable for Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and to meet the second requirement we have optimized the model across multiple calibration sites to obtain representative values for these parameters. We have verified simulated switchgrass yields against observations at three non-calibration sites in IL. Agro-BGC simulates switchgrass growth and yield at harvest very well at a single site. Our results suggest that a multi-site optimization scheme would be adequate for producing regional-scale estimates of bioenergy crop yields on high spatial resolution grids.

  12. Value Creation in the Internet of Things: Mapping Business Models and Ecosystem Roles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heini Ikävalko

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The increasing connectivity provided by the Internet of Things (IoT supports novel business opportunities for actors in overlapping service systems. Therefore, the co-creative nature of IoT business needs to be further studied. This article reports an empirical study on a European IoT initiative. It contributes to the understudied area of IoT ecosystem dynamics by describing different actor roles and activities in the IoT use cases, and their implications for value creation in IoT ecosystems. Our findings show how IoT ecosystem actors may take the roles of ideator, designer, or intermediary in different IoT design layers, and we recommend this perspective to better understand and describe ecosystem business models. We also discuss the theoretical and managerial implications of our findings.

  13. Evolving software products, the design of a water-related modeling software ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    2017-01-01

    more than 50 years ago. However, a radical change of software products to evolve both in the software engineering as much as the organizational and business aspects in a disruptive manner are rather rare. In this paper, we report on the transformation of one of the market leader product series in water......-related calculation and modeling from a traditional business-as-usual series of products to an evolutionary software ecosystem. We do so by relying on existing concepts on software ecosystem analysis to analyze the future ecosystem. We report and elaborate on the main focus points necessary for this transition. We...... argue for the generalization of our focus points to the transition from traditional business-as-usual software products to software ecosystems....

  14. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

  15. Assessing the protection function of Alpine forest ecosystems using BGC modelling theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pötzelsberger, E.; Hasenauer, H.; Petritsch, R.; Pietsch, S. A.

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the protection function of forests in Alpine areas by modelling the flux dynamics (water, carbon, nutrients) within a watershed as they may depend on the vegetation pattern and forest management impacts. The application case for this study was the catchment Schmittenbach, located in the province of Salzburg. Data available covered the hydrology (rainfall measurements from 1981 to 1998 and runoff measurements at the river Schmittenbach from 1981 to 2005), vegetation dynamics (currently 69% forest, predominantly Norway Spruce). The method of simulating the forest growth and water outflow was validated. For simulations of the key ecosystem processes (e.g. photosynthesis, carbon and nitrogen allocation in the different plant parts, litter fall, mineralisation, tree water uptake, transpiration, rainfall interception, evaporation, snow accumulation and snow melt, outflow of spare water) the biogeochemical ecosystem model Biome-BGC was applied. Relevant model extensions were the tree species specific parameter sets and the improved thinning regime. The model is sensitive to site characteristics and needs daily weather data and information on the atmospheric composition, which makes it sensitive to higher CO2-levels and climate change. For model validation 53 plots were selected covering the full range of site quality and stand age. Tree volume and soil was measured and compared with the respective model results. The outflow for the watershed was predicted by combining the simulated forest-outflow (derived from plot-outflow) with the outflow from the non-forest area (calculated with a fixed outflow/rainfall coefficient (OC)). The analysis of production and water related model outputs indicated that mechanistic modelling can be used as a tool to assess the performance of Alpine protection forests. The Water Use Efficiency (WUE), the ratio of Net primary production (NPP) and Transpiration, was found the highest for juvenile stands (

  16. A 3D radiative transfer model based on lidar data and its application on hydrological and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, W.; Su, Y.; Harmon, T. C.; Guo, Q.

    2013-12-01

    Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) is an optical remote sensing technology that measures properties of scattered light to find range and/or other information of a distant object. Due to its ability to generate 3-dimensional data with high spatial resolution and accuracy, lidar technology is being increasingly used in ecology, geography, geology, geomorphology, seismology, remote sensing, and atmospheric physics. In this study we construct a 3-dimentional (3D) radiative transfer model (RTM) using lidar data to simulate the spatial distribution of solar radiation (direct and diffuse) on the surface of water and mountain forests. The model includes three sub-models: a light model simulating the light source, a sensor model simulating the camera, and a scene model simulating the landscape. We use ground-based and airborne lidar data to characterize the 3D structure of the study area, and generate a detailed 3D scene model. The interactions between light and object are simulated using the Monte Carlo Ray Tracing (MCRT) method. A large number of rays are generated from the light source. For each individual ray, the full traveling path is traced until it is absorbed or escapes from the scene boundary. By locating the sensor at different positions and directions, we can simulate the spatial distribution of solar energy at the ground, vegetation and water surfaces. These outputs can then be incorporated into meteorological drivers for hydrologic and energy balance models to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and ecosystem functions.

  17. Sensitivity of secondary production and export flux to choice of trophic transfer formulation in marine ecosystem models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Thomas R.; Hessen, Dag O.; Mitra, Aditee; Mayor, Daniel J.; Yool, Andrew

    2013-09-01

    The performance of four contemporary formulations describing trophic transfer, which have strongly contrasting assumptions as regards the way that consumer growth is calculated as a function of food C:N ratio and in the fate of non-limiting substrates, was compared in two settings: a simple steady-state ecosystem model and a 3D biogeochemical general circulation model. Considerable variation was seen in predictions for primary production, transfer to higher trophic levels and export to the ocean interior. The physiological basis of the various assumptions underpinning the chosen formulations is open to question. Assumptions include Liebig-style limitation of growth, strict homeostasis in zooplankton biomass, and whether excess C and N are released by voiding in faecal pellets or via respiration/excretion post-absorption by the gut. Deciding upon the most appropriate means of formulating trophic transfer is not straightforward because, despite advances in ecological stoichiometry, the physiological mechanisms underlying these phenomena remain incompletely understood. Nevertheless, worrying inconsistencies are evident in the way in which fundamental transfer processes are justified and parameterised in the current generation of marine ecosystem models, manifested in the resulting simulations of ocean biogeochemistry. Our work highlights the need for modellers to revisit and appraise the equations and parameter values used to describe trophic transfer in marine ecosystem models.

  18. Modeling of column apparatus processes

    CERN Document Server

    Boyadjiev, Christo; Boyadjiev, Boyan; Popova-Krumova, Petya

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a new approach for the modeling of chemical and interphase mass transfer processes in industrial column apparatuses, using convection-diffusion and average-concentration models. The convection-diffusion type models are used for a qualitative analysis of the processes and to assess the main, small and slight physical effects, and then reject the slight effects. As a result, the process mechanism can be identified. It also introduces average concentration models for quantitative analysis, which use the average values of the velocity and concentration over the cross-sectional area of the column. The new models are used to analyze different processes (simple and complex chemical reactions, absorption, adsorption and catalytic reactions), and make it possible to model the processes of gas purification with sulfur dioxide, which form the basis of several patents.

  19. Using ecological production functions to link ecological processes to ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological production functions (EPFs) link ecosystems, stressors, and management actions to ecosystem services (ES) production. Although EPFs are acknowledged as being essential to improve environmental management, their use in ecological risk assessment has received relatively ...

  20. UML in business process modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartosz Marcinkowski

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Selection and proper application of business process modeling methods and techniques have a significant impact on organizational improvement capabilities as well as proper understanding of functionality of information systems that shall support activity of the organization. A number of business process modeling notations were popularized in practice in recent decades. Most significant of the notations include Business Process Modeling Notation (OMG BPMN and several Unified Modeling Language (OMG UML extensions. In this paper, the assessment whether one of the most flexible and strictly standardized contemporary business process modeling notations, i.e. Rational UML Profile for Business Modeling, enable business analysts to prepare business models that are all-embracing and understandable by all the stakeholders. After the introduction, methodology of research is discussed. Section 2 presents selected case study results. The paper is concluded with a summary.

  1. Impacts of introduced Rangifer on ecosystem processes of maritime tundra on subarctic islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricca, Mark; Miles, A. Keith; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Eviner, Valerie T.

    2016-01-01

    Introductions of mammalian herbivores to remote islands without predators provide a natural experiment to ask how temporal and spatial variation in herbivory intensity alter feedbacks between plant and soil processes. We investigated ecosystem effects resulting from introductions of Rangifer tarandus (hereafter “Rangifer”) to native mammalian predator- and herbivore-free islands in the Aleutian archipelago of Alaska. We hypothesized that the maritime tundra of these islands would experience either: (1) accelerated ecosystem processes mediated by positive feedbacks between increased graminoid production and rapid nitrogen cycling; or (2) decelerated processes mediated by herbivory that stimulated shrub domination and lowered soil fertility. We measured summer plant and soil properties across three islands representing a chronosequence of elapsed time post-Rangifer introduction (Atka: ~100 yr; Adak: ~50; Kagalaska: ~0), with distinct stages of irruptive population dynamics of Rangifer nested within each island (Atka: irruption, K-overshoot, decline, K-re-equilibration; Adak: irruption, K-overshoot; Kagalaska: initial introduction). We also measured Rangifer spatial use within islands (indexed by pellet group counts) to determine how ecosystem processes responded to spatial variation in herbivory. Vegetation community response to herbivory varied with temporal and spatial scale. When comparing temporal effects using the island chronosequence, increased time since herbivore introduction led to more graminoids and fewer dwarf-shrubs, lichens, and mosses. Slow-growingCladonia lichens that are highly preferred winter forage were decimated on both long-termRangifer-occupied islands. In addition, linear relations between more concentrated Rangifer spatial use and reductions in graminoid and forb biomass within islands added spatial heterogeneity to long-term patterns identified by the chronosequence. These results support, in part, the hypothesis that

  2. Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. S.; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J. M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D. R.; Dietze, M.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A. E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, C.; Torn, M.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S. B.; Xue, Y.

    2016-06-03

    Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

  3. Carbon and energy fluxes in cropland ecosystems: a model-data comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lokupitiya, E.; Denning, A. Scott; Schaefer, K.; Ricciuto, D.; Anderson, R.; Arain, M. A.; Baker, I.; Barr, A. G.; Chen, G.; Chen, J.M.; Ciais, P.; Cook, D.R.; Dietze, M.C.; El Maayar, M.; Fischer, M.; Grant, R.; Hollinger, D.; Izaurralde, C.; Jain, A.; Kucharik, C.J.; Li, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, L.; Matamala, R.; Peylin, P.; Price, D.; Running, S. W.; Sahoo, A.; Sprintsin, M.; Suyker, A.E.; Tian, H.; Tonitto, Christina; Torn, M.S.; Verbeeck, Hans; Verma, S.B.; Xue, Y.

    2016-01-01

    Croplands are highly productive ecosystems that contribute to land–atmosphere exchange of carbon, energy, and water during their short growing seasons. We evaluated and compared net ecosystem exchange (NEE), latent heat flux (LE), and sensible heat flux (H) simulated by a suite of ecosystem models at five agricultural eddy covariance flux tower sites in the central United States as part of the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis project. Most of the models overestimated H and underestimated LE during the growing season, leading to overall higher Bowen ratios compared to the observations. Most models systematically under predicted NEE, especially at rain-fed sites. Certain crop-specific models that were developed considering the high productivity and associated physiological changes in specific crops better predicted the NEE and LE at both rain-fed and irrigated sites. Models with specific parameterization for different crops better simulated the inter-annual variability of NEE for maize-soybean rotation compared to those models with a single generic crop type. Stratification according to basic model formulation and phenological methodology did not explain significant variation in model performance across these sites and crops. The under prediction of NEE and LE and over prediction of H by most of the models suggests that models developed and parameterized for natural ecosystems cannot accurately predict the more robust physiology of highly bred and intensively managed crop ecosystems. When coupled in Earth System Models, it is likely that the excessive physiological stress simulated in many land surface component models leads to overestimation of temperature and atmospheric boundary layer depth, and underestimation of humidity and CO2 seasonal uptake over agricultural regions.

  4. Linking ecosystem services with state-and-transition models to evaluate rangeland management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohani, S.; Heilman, P.; deSteiguer, J. E.; Guertin, D. P.; Wissler, C.; McClaran, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Quantifying ecosystem services is a crucial topic for land management decision making. However, market prices are usually not able to capture all the ecosystem services and disservices. Ecosystem services from rangelands, that cover 70% of the world's land area, are even less well-understood since knowledge of rangelands is limited. This study generated a management framework for rangelands that uses remote sensing to generate state and transition models (STMs) for a large area and a linear programming (LP) model that uses ecosystem services to evaluate natural and/or management induced transitions as described in the STM. The LP optimization model determines the best management plan for a plot of semi-arid land in the Empire Ranch in southeastern Arizona. The model allocated land among management activities (do nothing, grazing, fire, and brush removal) to optimize net benefits and determined the impact of monetizing environmental services and disservices on net benefits, acreage allocation and production output. The ecosystem services under study were forage production (AUM/ac/yr), sediment (lbs/ac/yr), water runoff (inches/yr), soil loss (lbs/ac/yr) and recreation (thousands of number of visitors/ac/yr). The optimization model was run for three different scenarios - private rancher, public rancher including environmental services and excluding disservices, and public rancher including both services and disservices. The net benefit was the highest for the public rancher excluding the disservices. A result from the study is a constrained optimization model that incorporates ecosystem services to analyze investments on conservation and management activities. Rangeland managers can use this model to understand and explain, not prescribe, the tradeoffs of management investments.

  5. Business Process Modeling: Perceived Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Indulska, Marta; Green, Peter; Recker, Jan; Rosemann, Michael

    The process-centered design of organizations and information systems is globally seen as an appropriate response to the increased economic pressure on organizations. At the methodological core of process-centered management is process modeling. However, business process modeling in large initiatives can be a time-consuming and costly exercise, making it potentially difficult to convince executive management of its benefits. To date, and despite substantial interest and research in the area of process modeling, the understanding of the actual benefits of process modeling in academia and practice is limited. To address this gap, this paper explores the perception of benefits derived from process modeling initiatives, as reported through a global Delphi study. The study incorporates the views of three groups of stakeholders - academics, practitioners and vendors. Our findings lead to the first identification and ranking of 19 unique benefits associated with process modeling. The study in particular found that process modeling benefits vary significantly between practitioners and academics. We argue that the variations may point to a disconnect between research projects and practical demands.

  6. Investigating point zero: The artificial catchment 'Chicken Creek' as an observatory to study critical zone structures and processes of the critical zone in an initial ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüttl, Reinhard F.; Gerwin, Werner

    2010-05-01

    Recently, earth surface structures reaching from vegetation to the groundwater in the near underground have been termed "critical zone". This zone is "critical" to supporting life on Earth and, thus, the understanding of processes within this zone is of great importance in environmental sciences. Investigating the critical zone requires interdisciplinary and integrative research approaches across the fields of geomorphology, ecology, biology, soil science, hydrology and environmental modeling. A central motivation of the critical zone concept is the need for moving beyond traditional disciplinary boundaries to a more holistic and integrated study of the Earth surface system. However, the critical zone is characterized by complex interactions between abiotic and biotic structures and processes which need to be analyzed for improving our understanding of ecosystem functioning as well as of ecosystem development. To gain a better understanding of these fundamental questions it might be helpful to look at initial ecosystems, i.e. at ecosystems in the initial phase of development. It can be hypothesized that the complexity of a very young ecosystem is lower compared to mature systems and, therefore, structure-process interactions might become more obvious at early than at later stages of development. In this context, an artificial watershed was constructed with well known boundary conditions to investigate the initial ecosystem phase. The catchment ‘Chicken Creek' in Lusatia (Germany; 150 km SE from Berlin) has an area of 6 ha. It was set up with a layer of post-glacial sandy sediments overlying an aquiclude made of clay at the base. These hydrological starting conditions allowed for the formation of a groundwater body within the sandy layer of the experimental catchment. Further, after completion of the construction works in September 2005 the site was left to natural succession and no measures like planting or fertilization were carried out. As the initial phase of

  7. Selenium in ecosystems within the mountaintop coal mining and valley-fill region of southern West Virginia-assessment and ecosystem-scale modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presser, Theresa S.

    2013-01-01

    acted as an integrator of organic-rich, fine-grained biomass present in streams. The base-case food web modeled for streams was suspended particulate material to aquatic insect to creek chub, with comparative modeling of a direct particulate-to-stoneroller food web. Model species for a reservoir setting were based on an earlier study of bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus), green sunfish (Lepomis cyanellus), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Several reservoir food webs were considered based on a variety of invertebrates (i