Martin, Ruth; Williams, Caroline; O'Neill, Desmond
To investigate the description of older people and ageing in a major weekly newspaper, influential in political and financial circles, to see whether it reflected ageing in a balanced manner, and to what extent it indulged in apocalyptic demography-the portrayal of population ageing as a financial burden rather than a scientific advance. Electronic search of the digital archive of the Economist of articles published between January 1997 and April 2008. Main outcomes measures Categorisation of articles as portraying population ageing as a burden or a benefit or with a balanced view. Of 6306 identified articles, 262 were relevant. Most featured pensions, demography, and politics. Of these 262, 64% portrayed population ageing as a burden and 12% as a benefit; 24% had a balanced view. Most articles therefore showed a predominantly ageist view of older people as a burden on society, often portraying them as frail non-contributors. Recurrent themes included pension and demographic "time bombs" and future unsustainable costs of health care for older people. This negative view of older people might be influential in shaping the attitudes of readers, who include opinion formers in political and economic circles. Gerontologists (including geriatricians) need to engage with influential media, as well as helping to promote a professional development of journalists that is informed and knowledgeable about the negative impact of ageism on the wellbeing of older people.
Evans, Brent A.; Grimes, Paul W.; Becker, William E.
The authors analyze the various factors that highly recognized economists cite as reasons for pursuing a career in economics. They obtained data for 62 of the 67 Nobel Laureates in economics and included another 22 prominent economists who have made significant contributions in economic research. The authors' basic quest was to discover how these…
Fifty years ago what was taught in the principles of economics course reflected reasonably well what economists did in their research. That, however, is no longer the case; today what economists teach has a more nuanced relation to what they do. The reason is that the economics profession and the textbooks have evolved differently. The author…
E-mail: pgdevilliers@ mweb.co.za. ... against apocalyptic texts in Biblical scholarship. Koch (1970) gave .... According to Lawrence, this language speaks of John's passionate, .... 11 Collins (1984:37), for example, notes that words such as “chosen” and ...... lAmpe, p. 1981. Die Apokalyptiker – Ihre Situation und ihr Handeln.
of biological and cultural evolution. Demographic variation within and among human populations is influenced by our biology, and therefore by natural selection and our evolutionary background. Demographic methods are necessary for studying populations of other species, and for quantifying evolutionary fitness......Demography is the quantitative study of population processes, while evolution is a population process that influences all aspects of biological organisms, including their demography. Demographic traits common to all human populations are the products of biological evolution or the interaction...
Full Text Available In this article I examine how death and loss feature in recent apocalypse fiction and suggest that, in a genre mostly concerned with finitude, there appears to be paradoxically little room for expressions of mourning. I assess contemporary attitudes towards mortality through the writings of Philippe Ariès, Zygmunt Bauman, Simon Critchley and others, and propose a psychoanalytic reading of solitary survivor narrative, inspired by the work of Martin Jay. In the final part of the article, I turn to Sigmund Freud and René Girard to explore the relation between apocalyptic teleology, melancholy, and the expectation of global catastrophe. Narcisismo apocalittico e la difficoltà del lutto In questo articolo indago la rappresentazione della morte e della perdita nella recente letteratura apocalittica, e avanzo l’ipotesi che in un genere letterario ossessionato dall’idea di fine sembra esserci poco spazio, paradossalmente, per l’espressione del lutto. Traendo esempi da Philippe Ariès, Zygmunt Bauman, Simon Critchley, ricostruisco alcuni atteggiamenti davanti la morte che dominano il dibattito filosofico contemporaneo, e, sulla scia di Martin Jay, propongo una lettura psicoanalitica delle narrazioni dell’ultimo uomo. Nella parte finale dell’articolo, traggo spunto dalle intuizioni di Sigmund Freud e René Girard per esplorare il rapporto tra teleologia apocalittica, malinconia, e aspettative di una catastrofe globale.
Is there evidence enough that Paul provides an apocalyptic perspective on the gospel and its ... E-mail address: email@example.com ...... The gospel of Christ and its accompanying ethic of the Spirit, ..... San Francisco: Harper Collins. 2005. ... of Walter Brueggemann and Charles B. Cousar (Louisville: Westminster John.
Full Text Available Daniel 9 relates how Daniel studies the Hebrew Holy Scriptures and finds the prophecy of Jeremiah that Jerusalem will lie desolate for seventy years. He reacts by devoting himself to prayer and fasting in order to remind God of this promise of restoring his people. The better part of the chapter is dedicated to the contents of his prayer. During the prayer, the man, Gabriel, appears with the intent to give Daniel an understanding of the meaning of the seventy years, which is the measure of the punishment of Israel�s transgression and sin and which will end with eternal righteousness, when the Holy of Holies will be anointed. The Book of Daniel consists of two sections: the tales of the first six chapters and the visions of the last six chapters. This article asked the question: what role does Daniel 9 play as a part of the apocalyptic section of the book? Is Daniel�s prayer and Gabriel�s revelation apocalyptically conditioned? Why did the author or compiler include it in the book and, especially, in the second, apocalyptic section of the book? The conclusion of this article was that Daniel 9 was placed intentionally by the compiler in the latter half of the book because of the revelation about the seventy weeks, which is in line with the last three chapters� indication of the end times and Israel�s elevation to become the ruler of the earth. Several arguments were formulated to support this conclusion.
Christiansen, Charlotte; Joensen, Juanna Schröter; Rangvid, Jesper
A unique data set enables us to test the hypothesis that more economists than otherwise identical investors hold stocks due to informational advantages. We confirm that economists have a significantly higher probability of participating in the stock market than investors with any other education......, even when controlling for several background characteristics. We make use of a large register-based panel data set containing detailed information on the educational attainments and various financial and socioeconomic variables. We model the stock market participation decision by the probit model...
Galbraith, James K.
In this paper, the author ventures into the nether wastes of economics, and attempts a brief survey of the main currents that didn't get it wrong. He looks at the failure of the nation's leading academic economists to understand the current financial crisis or the shaky underpinnings of the nation's financial system. The author's method consists…
Full Text Available This paper is dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Stanovništvo (Population journal, launched by the Center for demographic research in Belgrade in 1963. The anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on developments and trends in demography as a discipline, thus the paper points out certain specifics of these developments. The specifics discussed mirror the author's choice, which was guided primarily by the criterion of interestingness, but also by the intention to make a survey. Hence points about the development of demography are backed by insights made by a number of other demographers. The major source of references were papers and speeches given on similar occasions - anniversaries of journals, anniversaries of associations of demographers, as well as special issues of journals dedicated to theory and methodology. Certain points are also made based on other sources of reference. The major part of the paper is related to transformations of demography, which has started as a predominantly formal discipline and has developed into a social and interdisciplinary field. Topical and methodological expansion of demography induces mixed reactions among demographers. Ones welcome its diversification, whereas others see such changes as signs of abandoning the essence of demography. This makes it harder and harder to define the area of demographic research. Changes in demography are mostly studied from the standpoint of polarized dimensions: quantitative-qualitative, macro-micro, and, in the context of diversification, formal demography vs. population studies. Another important segment of development trends in demography is that of improving its vocabulary, which is affected by other fields related to demography. Terminological changes are also related to the specification of certain branches and subfields of demography. For instance, anthropological and spatial demography have roots in earlier development phases of demography. Still, these terms
... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Chief Economist. 2.29 Section 2.29 Agriculture Office... Economist. (a) The following delegations of authority are made by the Secretary of Agriculture to the Chief Economist: (1) Related to economic analysis. (i) Coordinate economic analyses of, and review Department...
Stuart E. Eizenstat
While I served in the White House, [as Assistant to the President for Domestic Affairs and Policy and Executive Director of the White House Domestic Policy Staff from 1977-81], Ph.D. economists occupied the positions of Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Treasury, Director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability, the President's anti-inflation adviser, Chairman and Council Members of the Council of Economic Advisers, and many other senior positions throughout the gover...
Full Text Available Every now and then instances of violence are played out at the Temple Mount area in Jerusalem, also known as the Haram-esh-sharif. Some of the cases are referred to as results of the so-called ‘Jerusalem syndrome’, incidents when individuals’ manifestations of pre-existing psychopathology culminate in violent actions. Israeli psychiatrists and others have treated such incidents as examples of when peoples’ expectations of a heavenly Jerusalem collide with the very earthly reality in the city. For some people, such encounters may create anxiety that may threaten the victim’s very sanity. In such situations, an apocalyptic mission may become the only way for them to cope with the situation at hand. But the Temple Mount does not only attract lone-acting individuals, it also attracts organized groups who refer to the very spot as an important identity marker. In this article, the author draws on her field research material and interviews with Jewish Third Temple activists in Jerusalem collected on and off between 1998 and 2004. Here Yehuda Etzion’s, Gershon Salomon’s and Yoel Lerner’s theology and activities are studied in light of apocalyptic representations, and how these are expressed in relation to religious longing for the Third Temple in the light of the Gaza withdrawal. Not all those who are engaged in endtime scenarios act upon their visions. In Jerusalem, there have been, and still are, several religious-political groups that more or less ritually perambulate the Temple Mount area.
Roč. 81, č. 2 (2013), s. 1-50 ISSN 0044-8699 Institutional support: RVO:68378009 Keywords : millennnialism * apocalypse * apocalyptic exegesis * the portents of the End * Islamic Doomsday * Muslim eschatology Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion
Christiansen, Charlotte; Joensen, Eyðfrið Juanna Schrøter; Rangvid, Jesper
A unique data set enables us to test the hypothesis that due to informational advantages economists are more likely to hold stocks than otherwise identical investors. Weconfirm that economists have a significantly higher probability of participating in the stockmarket than investors with any other...
Full Text Available Salman Rushdie’s novel The Satanic Verses presents its readers with a striking perspective on apocalypse. Taking place in the context of a modernist, migrant worldview, this apocalypse works to unsettle its participating characters by teaching them how to create a world in which they might someday belong. Though often defined as destructive, the apocalypse as I define it involves a reaching for or gesture towards the impossible, which the Verses achieves through massive temporal distortion. Linear time finds itself subverted; characters’ narratives speed up or slow down, forcing them to question their various adventures in 1980s London. Rushdie’s protagonist Saladin Chamcha re-grasps and reinvents his world; his other protagonist, Gibreel Farishta, does not. For one man, apocalypse becomes a means of empowerment; for another, it develops into a black hole. Unlike real black holes, however, Rushdie’s apocalypse does not kill all who venture into it, but instead stretches its hardiest entrants both emotionally and intellectually before dropping them into a new universe. Apocalypse and the post-apocalyptic are not therefore to be feared but to be reached for: worthy achievements for those individuals who can survive the risk, the compression, and the disorientation to emerge in a ‘post’ that is not a wasteland but a realm of ceaseless energetic creation—a realm which allows migrants to construct for themselves better lives in the 21st century world.
Willekens, F.J.C.; Zeng, Yi
Households are groups of people that co-reside and share some resources. Families are households of related individuals. Household and family demography is the study of these primary social groups or social units, and in particular of group membership and the relationships between members of the
Hechter, Michael Norman
Gintis and Helbing suggest that certain elements from classical sociological theory can be usefully incorporated into a general equilibrium model, thereby providing a superior explanation of social behavior. Although the paper seemingly is addressed to sociologists, I argue that their message...... is likely to fall on deaf ears. Instead, their paper should properly be addressed to economists. Whether economists are prepared to listen, however, is an open question....
... 7 Agriculture 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Deputy Chief Economist. 2.70 Section 2.70 Agriculture... GENERAL OFFICERS OF THE DEPARTMENT Delegations of Authority by the Chief Economist § 2.70 Deputy Chief Economist. Pursuant to § 2.29, the following delegation of authority is made by the Chief Economist to the...
Full Text Available This paper introduces a collection of related research studies on the anthropological demography of Europe. Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography that uses anthropological theory and methods to provide a better understanding of demographic phenomena in current and past populations. Its genesis and ongoing growth lies at the intersection of demography and socio-cultural anthropology and with their efforts to understand population processes: mainly fertility, migration, and mortality. Both disciplines share a common research subject, namely human populations, and they focus on mutually complementary aspects. The authors of this paper focus on the differences between the disciplines of anthropology and demography, the emergence of anthropological demography and its theoretical, methodological, and empirical aspects. In addition, they critically summarize the contributions that were presented in the first workshop of the Working Group on Anthropological Demography of Europe of the European Association for Population Studies, held in Rostock in Fall 2005 and reflect on how these papers add to the further development of anthropological demography in Europe, i.e. elaborating the epistemology of anthropological demography; applying additional theoretical perspectives to better understand demographic behaviour in Europe ; illustrating the way in which culture plays a role in case studies on European demographic behaviour; and emphasizing the need for a holistic approach to data collection and the added value of triangulating quantitative and qualitative analyses.
Full Text Available Introduction: The objective of this paper is to collect the opinions of the leading demographers in Serbia on four significant matters. The matters are: development, state and future of demography, the successfulness of researchers in this scientific discipline, improvement of the Stanovništvo journal, as well as the population priority of our society and range of population policies. Method: A qualitative interview was chosen as the instrument for data collection. Namely, a structured interview, based on nine questions was sent by e-mail to eleven addresses of relevant demographers in the second half of October 2013. The basic reason for sending questions by e-mail was the aspiration to obtain authentic replies which require time for contemplation. Ten completed questionnaires were returned within two weeks. On the one hand, an integral picture on the chosen themes for research was attempted to be obtained in the analysis of received opinions to certain groups of questions and on the other hand to portray the spectrum of different observations. The responses of our prominent demographers were analyzed and compared to clearly pronounced standpoints of eminent demographers published in world journals on similar themes and with findings of internet researches among members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Results: The results show that there is a high level of consent among demographers in Serbia regarding the well positioning of demography in relation to other social studies and its good perspectives. The interviewed experts see the future of demography in its integration with a wide circle of sciences, the application of demography and/or greater engagement of researchers in carrying out public policies. However, the estimations of the interviewed demographers as regards the development and state of demography in Serbia are divided. Although a large number of topics had been listed, migrations and population
Full Text Available The paper presents an outline of the relationship between anthropology and demography, sometimes depicted as "long, tortured, often ambivalent, and sometimes passionate." Although early anthropologists (primarily British social anthropologists routinely made use of demographic data, especially in their studies of kinship, the two disciplines gradually drifted away from each other. The re-approachment took place from 1960s, and the last fifteen years saw more intensive cooperation and more insights about possible mutual benefits that could be achieved through combining of methodologies and revision of some theoretical assumptions, primarily through anthropological demography. As summarized by Laura Bernardi and Inge Hutter, "Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography that uses anthropological theory and methods to provide a better understanding of demographic phenomena in current and past populations. Its genesis and ongoing growth lies at the intersection of demography and socio-cultural anthropology and with their efforts to understand population processes: mainly fertility, migration, and mortality. Both disciplines share a common research subject, namely human populations, and they focus on mutually complementary aspects" (2007: 541. In the first part of the paper, the author presents some general considerations, like the one that "demography is one of the best understood and predictable parts of human behavior, even if demographers still find themselves unable to predict accurately when parameters will change in interesting ways, such as the ′the baby boom′ or the shift to later childbeanng in the 1970s and 1980s North America" (Howell, 1986: 219. Nancy Howell also noted the importance of demographic anthropology, because, in her words "if we knew, reliably, the birth and death probability schedules of particular populations, we would know a great deal about their size, age composition, growth rate. And with just a
Polish experience in professional training of economists at university has been generalized. Structural, content and procedural peculiarities of the training have been defined. It has been proved that key factors for reforming economic education in Poland are globalization, internationalization, integration, technologization and informatization.…
Ross, David R.
This essay describes my progress bringing the core ideas of economics into conversations with noneconomists about important public policy issues within my faith community, through local politics, and through interdisciplinary conversations in academia. Thinking like an economist is essential to conducting research and performing careful analysis…
Fuller, Dan; Geide-Stevenson, Doris
In this article, the authors explore consensus among economists on specific propositions based on a fall 2011 survey of American Economic Association members. Results are based on 568 responses and provide evidence of changes in opinion over time by including propositions from earlier studies in 2000 (Fuller and Geide-Stevenson 2003) and 1992…
Econ is an economist who behaves as predicted by economic theory. His research for a paper reporting the ‘best’ estimate of an important parameter is modeled. The size of his search is determined from the costs and benefits of running regressions. The size determines the relevant supply side...
Michael F. Bryan; John B. Martin
A summary of the 1994 forecasts for real output and inflation presented by 15 members of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable at their January 1994 meeting, highlighting the measurement of service sector prices and the role of small businesses in creating jobs.
Oct 25, 2010 ... Talk to an economist in Africa and there's a good chance you'll be talking to a ... of the African Economic Research Consortium's (AERC) training program. ... In addition to such key topics as industrialization and agricultural ...
Office, Irish Maritime Development
The Irish Maritime Development Office (IMDO) of the Marine Institute publishes the Irish Maritime Transport Economist each year to provide a descriptive statistical analysis of the Irish ports and shipping services sector, as well as the many factors influencing its performance.
Office, Irish Maritime Development
The Irish Maritime Development Office (IMDO) of the Marine Institute publishes the Irish Maritime Transport Economist each year to provide a descriptive statistical analysis of the Irish ports and shipping services sector, as well as the many factors influencing its performance.
There is a need for demography to be brought into policy-making discussions. In the time of Malthus, both economists and ecologists spoke the same language and each group was receptive to and supportive of the ideas of the other. The present organization of academic life precludes interdisciplinary communication. Malthus saw the limit as food supply; today, technology seems to be the defining criteria, although access to world supplies is also unevenly distributed. Minerals were once thought to present limits, but again technology was able to generate replacements as the Green Revolution provided an option for expanding food supply. During the 1950s and 1960s, limits were perceived by Arthur Lewis, Coale, and Hoover to be in shortages of capital. Now capital is seen as a result of development and not a cause. The strongest argument for limiting population growth appears to be the stability of planetary support systems (species diversity, ozone layer, global climate, and others). Knowledge of these support systems is limited and it would be wise not to press the world's carrying capacity under such conditions. Ignorance of planetary support systems may mean that the circle may be tightening closer than we know, or that a sudden disaster is possible. It is a complex task to circumscribe boundaries to various essentials for human life. Regardless of whether there is a solution to various essentials for human life. Regardless of whether there is a solution to the known or unknown environmental problems, it is possible, easy, and reliable to reduce the population by having fewer births than deaths. Economists argue that the vagaries and uncertainties of environmental damage prevent taking environmental constraints into account, when uncertainties have always been with us. A real debate on the issues instead of disciplines talking past each other would occur if all facts and conclusions were accepted by all parties. The conclusion should be that population increases must
Aug 6, 2017 ... Economists and social scientists made a strong pitch for reducing expenditures on ... Economists, social scientists root for basic income in India ... in terms of competing development priorities and limited availability of funds.
Porzecanski, Arturo C.
Economists have always been interested in the workings of the financial markets, but most of them neither seek nor get the opportunity to work in a financial institution as a professional economist. Here we detail how (a minority of) economists became involved in the financial markets, and what that professional involvement has entailed, in order to come up with implications for economists who are considering working in the financial markets as well as for the universities that provide train...
Evgeniy Igorevich Erokhov
Full Text Available The motif analysis of a cycle of stories by M.A. Bulgakov «Notes of a Young Doctor» from the point of view of their apocalyptic problematics was first performed in this article. To identify apocalyptic motifs the method of motif analysis, developed by B.M. Gasparov, was used which will also help to prove the interpenetration of motifs in the cycle of stories. The result of the research work is the identification of apocalyptic motifs which are manifested in the experiences of the main character and the events taking place around him and passing through the prism of physician’s perception of the world. Our identified motifs show that the stories in the cycle are united not only thematically and with the help of the image of the main character, but with the help of the motifs which reflect interpenetration of apocalyptic motifs in the stories of one cycle. There are the following apocalyptic motifs in the cycle of stories by Bulgakov: diseases, darkness (as part of the landscape, resurrection from the dead and beast. They all belong to the biblical type which is allocated on the basis of the associative bond of these motifs with the biblical texts.
In her article "McCarthy's The Road and Ethical Choice in a Post-Apocalyptic World" Jingjing Guo analyses ethical choice and its implications in McCarthy's The Road. After examining the deterioration of the ethical context and the prevalence of evil reflected in cannibalism, Guo highlights the father's ethical choice and dilemma. Different from most others, the father chooses to keep alive to protect his son, and to stay man and stay good in a physically devastated and morally bankrupted worl...
Hahn, Franz R.
Ideologues are quick to explain the current financial meltdown: it's the markets, stupid. Economists agree but add: it's politics too, stupid. Ideologues agree but counter: first and foremost it's capitalism, stupid. Economists agree but reply: §$%&?!, stupid. This is where this short paper takes us: it makes an attempt to give a brief overview of the economists' views on the ongoing financial system crisis explaining "§$%&?!, stupid".
Full Text Available The author, following the teachings and example of Paolo Sylos Labini, explores the social role of economists, underling how a useful economist is an ethically committed economist, who pursues the common good. Text of the speech given at the conference "Paolo Sylos Labini e la politica delle riforme", held at Sapienza University of Rome on 04 December 2015, organized by the Accademia dei Lincei with Economia Civile. JEL Codes: A11, A13, B31
The author describes developments in the study of demography in Romania over the period 1975-1989. The books and articles mentioned are classified by subject. The author notes that although few full-length monographs were published during the Ceausescu years, a steady stream of demographic articles appeared, most of which were published in the journal Viitorul Social, now retitled Sociologie Romaneasca.
Stern, Nicholas; Guesnerie, Roger
This document proposes a brief presentation of a book written by two economists about climate challenges. They address the cost of global warming now and if we do not do anything about it, and the cost of an alternative action. Although they do not agree on all topics, they agree on the fact that we must massively act now against global warming. They address and discuss issues of climate economic policy (carbon tax, border adjustment, etc.), and the conditions for a successful international negotiation. They outline that climate policies, beside their effect on emissions, would allow a correction of the insufficient ability of market to produce major innovations which are anyway necessary. They state that such innovations would stimulate an industrial revolution, incite creativity, and lead to a low carbon growth
Lars de Wildt
Full Text Available In the literature on religion in games, two broad types of religion have been depicted: on the one hand, historical religions—Christian, Muslim and Buddhist narratives, tropes and symbols—and, on the other hand, fiction-based religion, referring to fantasy, myth and popular culture. In this article we aim to describe, analyze and explain the emergence of a new, unacknowledged repertoire. Building on two case studies—Fallout 3 and Horizon: Zero Dawn—we argue that modern technology (computers, AI, VR, androids itself is becoming a sacred object of veneration in fiction, specifically in post-apocalyptic games that imagine man-made annihilation. Although the themes and topics differ, this emergent form of techno-religion in game narratives is generally located in a post-apocalyptic setting. Although they are fictitious, we conclude that such narratives reflect developments in real life, in which technology such as artificial intelligence is feared as an increasingly powerful, opaque force.
Diletta De Cristofaro
Full Text Available Jim Crace’s The Pesthouse (2007 provides the ideal springboard for a discussion about the apocalypse and representation because the event remains unspecified, a gap in the story, suggesting the presence of epistemological limits. The present article contends that this narrative choice depends on a representational impasse which makes the depiction of the apocalypse and its aftermath impossible and which post-apocalyptic fiction has to address, in order to grant its own existence. The apocalypse is to be considered the ultimate iconoclastic concept, utterly beyond our abilities as image-makers and story-tellers, because it has either to do with the notion of an absolute end or with that of the radical alterity of a new beginning. A theoretical discussion of the impasse, divided, for the purposes of a more detailed analysis, into two dilemmas, is followed by an outline of how The Pesthouse engages with this unrepresentability. On the one hand, the British author deploys what might be defined as the logic of the absent referent, in order to allude to the unrepresentable apocalypse. This remains, in fact, inaccessible to language, and thus absent in the narrative, while several elements point to its absence. On the other hand, Crace uses a typical topos of post-apocalyptic fiction, temporal inversion, namely representing the future as a return to the past, to allude to the radical alterity of the aftermath.
From the 1860's to the 1930's, economists' views about the end of fossil fuels changed. Technological as well as theoretical developments were behind this. The challenge here is to disentangle this web in order to understand how economists (even today) deal with environmental topics
Marisa Mazzotta, Ph.D. currently works as an Economist at EPA's Atlantic Ecology Division. Her research focuses on the public's valuation and prioritization of natural resources, and the relationship between ecological changes and economic benefits.
Ley, Connie J.
A nationwide study identified a pattern of political socialization for home economists who were politically active. The most outstanding feature of the politically active subjects was their perception that political activity is a professional role. (SK)
Willekens, F.J.; van Imhoff, E.; Wright, James D.
‘Family and household demography’ differs from traditional demography in that it explicitly recognizes and studies relationships between individuals. Formal demography focuses on the definition and measurement of families and households, and modeling of types, number, and composition of families and
Kwok, Jackie Yan Chi; Ku, Ben Hok Bun
In Hong Kong, the general view still follows the biomedical discourse to define aging. The government and leading gerontologists follow the prevailing representation of elderly and describe growing old as a process of becoming "frail, infirm, and vulnerable" (Fealy et al., 2012: 91). Discussions of demographic trends often focus on the drastic effects of an aging society on economic development. Our research indicates that Hong Kong's construction of aging is a product of its market-driven economy. Drawing from the life stories of eight participants born in the 1930s, we examine the meaning of aging and the formation of character in a specific historical context, adopting the life-course perspective. We wish to understand how larger movements in the social and political world shaped the experiences of the participants and the strategies they developed to maintain agency and control in life. The participants in our study struggled for survival through unprecedented political disasters and social turmoil in their youth. When they reached maturity in the 1960s and 1970s, they devoted themselves to bettering their lives and contributed to the economic boom of the city. We maintain that the biomedical model offers a reductive and unjust means of viewing the people in this cohort, who are often seen as a problem and a burden. Challenging the prevailing ageist attitude, we set the life stories of the participants against the dominant biomedical model of aging. Our work aims to establish a just description of the life experiences of Hong Kong people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Full Text Available D. H. Lawrence was one of the most controversial writers of the twentieth century who dared to criticize established convention through both his fictional and non fictional works. To this end, he moved away from literary conventions and used language in a new way, took well- known symbols and transformed them into vectors of his own individual and unique thought. Through an examination of his work , Apocalypse, my aim, in this article, is to show how Lawrence negates orthodox religious thinking, by showing not only how religious scribes mutilated and destroyed an original pagan text, but also, how a morphological shift in language helped fuel false ideals. Taking Stoicism as his starting point, I will try to prove that the doctrine of Zeno of Citium, concerning man’s affinity with the universe, forms the kernel of truth for his own personal philosophy. This article is divided into three sections. The first section will show how Lawrence shared many of the beliefs of Zeno of Citium, the founder of the philosophy of Stoicism. The second section aims to show how Lawrence defies meaning through an examination of the Book of Revelation. The third section explores apocalyptic symbols revealing Lawrence’s unique interpretation of them.
Full Text Available Among everything else post-apocalyptic video games have come to stand for, notions of in-group versus out-group communication are paramount. The Last of Us (2014, Naughty Dog/Sony Computer Entertainment is a case in point. I look into the game’s use of subtitles and didactic texts in order to find out to the extent speech acts shape the player’s understanding of what the video game is. As an understudied aspect of video games, HUD or menu elements, as well as characters’ exchanges and voice-over narration, disclose what it is like to be alive, dead or in-between. Essentially, they show the tensions between the avatar and the gamer: the hero makes all of the decisions by himself and the player has to abide or stop playing all together. The avatar’s identity comes alive through speech acts, while the player is left outside decision-making processes. Survival horror gaming, with a religious twist, gives insight into the in-game discussion on the representation of the zombie rather than on the zombie experience as such. On screen, the interplay between speech acts and written language amounts to a procedural language, which suggests that variability in language creates an environment conducive to learning. Particularly, language use is all about group values and communication styles that should help gamers tell apart friends from enemies, good from evil and, finally, people from zombies.
Designed as a companion to The Economist Style Guide, the best-selling guide to writing style, The Economist Numbers Guide is invaluable for everyone who has to work with numbers, which in today's commercially focussed world means most managers. In addition to general advice on basic numeracy, the guide points out common errors and explains the recognised techniques for solving financial problems, analysing information of any kind, forecasting and effective decision making. Over 100 charts, graphs, tables and feature boxes highlight key points, and great emphasis is put on the all-important aspect of how you present and communicate numerical information effectively and honestly. At the back of the book is an extensive A-Z dictionary of terms covering everything from amortisation to zero-sum game. Whatever your business, whatever your management role, for anyone who needs a good head for figures The Economist Numbers Guide will prove invaluable.
In September, Tim Berners-Lee, who invented the World Wide Web at CERN and is now Director of the W3C World Wide Web Consortium, received the 2nd Economist Annual Innovation Award in Computing. With the award The Economist, a British weekly newspaper, recognises individuals responsible for breakthroughs in Bioscience, Computing, Energy and the Environment, and Telecommunications that have a profound impact on industry. A fifth award is given in a special "No Boundaries" category, observing innovation that transcends industries. Candidates for the awards are proposed by The Economist readers and writers, and by a group of judges. Tim Berners-Lee received the Computing award for his global hypertext project, to be known as the World Wide Web, which "forever altered the way information is shared" and is a huge contribution to the efficiency of the scientific community. Based on a programme for storing information using random associations called "Enquire", it...
Karen Grierson; Andrew Allen
Introducing the new business demography statisticsA new National Statistics series waspublished on 28 November 2008 bythe Offi ce for National Statistics (ONS),providing data on business births,deaths and survival rates, called BusinessDemography: Enterprise Births andDeaths. The Department for Business,Enterprise & Regulatory Reform (BERR)also published its series Business start upsand closures: VAT registrations andde-registrations in 2007 on the sameday. The year 2008 is the final update t...
Alain Le Pichon
Full Text Available The opening of Great Exhibition of 1851 coincided with the start of a long debate on the law of patents. The question was whether patents were an encouragement to economic development or a hindrance. For The Economist which had been founded a few years earlier in the wake of the debate on the Corn Laws, the straightforward answer was that they were a hindrance and should be abolished. This article examines the arguments used by The Economist and shows that its analysis technological progress in the Victorian industry foreshadowed some of today’s concerns.
Arce, Daniel G.
In "Opportunity Cost: A Reexamination," Professor Parkin contrasts forgone physical quantities with forgone values as measures of the opportunity cost of basic economic decisions. The impetus for his study stems from an experiment conducted by Ferraro and Taylor (2005), in which professional economists could not reach a consensus over…
EPA economists completed research projects and summarized related valuation methods and case studies, mostly dealing with acid mine drainage. Their recent book (edited by Thurston, et al.) is intended to make stakeholders more comfortable talking about economic jargon and to info...
McCloskey, Deirdre N.
The 'vices' are three bad habits into which economists have fallen over the past fifty years: bad statistics, bad theory, and bad applications of statistics and theory to public affairs. This book details the vices, tracing them to the influence of three giants of the 1940s and 1950s in economics,
Frick, Bernd; Wicker, Pamela
Given the uncertainty of outcome in sport, predicting the outcome of sporting contests is a major topic in sport sciences. This study examines the accuracy of expert predictions in the German Bundesliga and compares their predictions to those of sports economists. Prior to the start of each season, a set of distinguished experts (head coaches and players) express their subjective evaluations of the teams in school grades. While experts may be driven by irrational sentiments and may therefore systematically over- or underestimate specific teams, sports economists use observable characteristics to predict season outcomes. The latter typically use team wage bills given the positive pay-performance relationship as well as other factors (average team age, tenure, appearances on national team, and attendance). Using data from 15 consecutive Bundesliga seasons, the predictive accuracy of expert evaluations and sports economists is analysed. The results of separate estimations show that relative grade and relative wage bill significantly affect relative points, while age, tenure, appearances, and attendance are insignificant. In a joint model, relative grade and relative wage bill are still statistically significant, suggesting that the two types of predictions are complements rather than substitutes. Consequently, football experts and sports economists seem to rely on completely different sources of information when making their predictions.
Nov 30, 2017 ... Co-hosted by Ted Chu, chief economist of IFC, World Bank Group, and ... and the difficulty of constructing reliable control groups to assess the impact of bank interventions. ... Blood on the Stone Ian Smillie in his own words.
States that tax economists' and lawyers' views on tax incentives are flawed in ways that have contributed to their assent to unnecessary and counterproductive complication of the tax laws in the name of tax reform and to their complicity in growth of the fiscal burden in the form of inefficient tax incentives that are either unaccounted for or understated.
Full Text Available Outstanding Romanian man of culture in the second half of the XIXa€™th century, known as remarkable historian, A.D.Xenopol was also a genuine economist, preoccupied not only by the theory but also by the practice of economics. I have achieved an investig
The most important financial source for behavioral economics is the Russell Sage Foundation (RSF). The most prominent behavioral economists among the RSF’s twentysix member Behavioral Economics Roundtable (BER) are Kahneman, Tversky, Thaler, Camerer, Loewenstein, Rabin, and Laibson. The theoretical
Oct 6, 2010 ... Listen to Berry describe the pitfalls of a resource-dependent ... One thing economists wonder about is whether — when you look at the whole economy — the total benefits from microfinance are as ... New life for old computers.
Full Text Available This paper analyses the use of the rhetoric of the Apocalypse and the concept of nature's revenge in Frank Schätzing's eco-thriller The Swarm. Ecocritical research has identified these narrative patterns as characteristic of contemporary environmental literature. In The Swarm, the apocalyptical rhetoric fulfils the double function of providing thrill and pleasure to the readers and warning them about imminent environmental peril, thereby combining conventions from the two genres of eco-thriller and science fiction. Contrasting reviews have described the novel as either enlightening or pseudo-religious. This ambivalence is the effect of various strategies employed to popularise scientific knowledge in the novel. The narrative embraces various scientific fields, for example the depiction of a network in contrast to swarm theory. The key conflict in the story embodies conflicting concepts of nature - anthropocentric vs. eco-systemic - which are represented by two contrasting groups of characters: one aiming to extinguish the alien superorganism that attacks the human race, the other aspiring to integrate the alien organism into the human world and propagating a holistic view of the Earth. The concepts of a 'tragic' and a 'comical apocalypse' correspond to the double closure which first features a show-down, the annihilation of the 'bad' characters, and then, in the epilogue, a warning message delivered by a 'good' character which confirms - in contrast to, for example, Michael Crichton's State of Fear - the ongoing environmental crisis. Although the epilogue extensively appeals to the human ability to rethink attitudes towards nature, the novel's support for environmental concerns is limited, not only because this message remains rather abstract but also because the vision of a reconciled, pseudo-religious ecosystem as a holistic superorganism has a highly ambivalent meaning for humanity.
Full Text Available Humanity has long been haunted by the notions of Armageddon and the coming of a Golden Age. While the English Romantic poets like Shelley saw hopes of a new millennium in poems like “Queen Mab” and “The Revolt of Islam”, others like Blake developed their own unique “cosmology” in their longer poems that were nevertheless coloured with their vision of redemption and damnation. Even Hollywood movies, like The Book of Eli (2010, rehearse this theme of salvation in the face of imminent annihilation time and again. Keeping with such trends, this paper would like to trace this line of apocalyptic vision and subsequent hopes of renewal with reference to William Golding’s debut novel Lord of the Flies (1954 and his Pincher Martin (1956. While in the former, a group of young school boys indulge in violence, firstly for survival, and then for its own sake, in the latter, a lonely, shipwrecked survivor of a torpedoed destroyer clings to his own hard, rock-like ego that subsequently is a hurdle for his salvation and redemption, as he is motivated by a lust for life that makes him exist in a different moral and physical dimension. In Lord of the Flies, the entire action takes place with nuclear warfare presumably as its backdrop, while Pincher Martin has long been interpreted as an allegory of the Cold War and the resultant fear of annihilation from nuclear fallout (this applies to Golding’s debut novel as well. Thus, this paper would argue how Golding weaves his own vision of social, spiritual, and metaphysical dissolution, and hopes for redemption, if any, through these two novels.
Full Text Available The motif of the apocalypse has fascinated mankind from the very beginnings of oral history and is present in various myths and religious traditions, finding its expression in the art of all time periods. Even today it hasn't lost its grip on human imagination. In modern Islamic contexts, the phenomenon of the apocalypse incorporates anti-western ideologies, which reflect, to a large extent the socio-cultural heritage of former anti-colonialist struggles, as well as the anti-imperialist attitudes which are present in a large number of contemporary Muslim societies. When paired with apocalyptic narratives, these notions can lead to negative essentializations of so-called “western morals and ethics”, which are subsequently interpreted as a clear sign of the End times. Aside from the wider consideration of the symbolism of Islamic apocalyptic narratives, the paper will deal with a critical analysis of the visualizations of the Signs of the Last Day books by religious author Hayrun Yahya, who considers the topic of the apocalypse, as presented in the Koran and hadiths, in an affirmative light. We will attempt to puzzle out why the textual version of Signs utilizes certain quotes from the hadiths, while other, equally relevant quotes are avoided. We will rely on the so-called “interdiscursive” aspect of the enclosed quasi- documentary film, or rather, the heterogeneous elements which make up its audio-visual “text”. This analysis should uncover the ideological notions behind this specific instrumentalization of scripture for the aim of religious, cultural and moral critique of contemporary (both Muslim and non-Muslim societies; however, we will also attempt to point out the multifunctional idea – suggested to the viewing/reading audience of apocalyptic narratives – that Judgment day is near, and can come around at any moment.
Giampietro, Mario; Sorman, Alevgül H
It is increasingly evident that the conventional scientific approach to economic processes and related sustainability issues is seriously flawed. No economist predicted the current planetary crisis even though the world has now undergone five severe recessions primed by dramatic increases in the price of oil. This book presents the results of more than twenty years of work aimed at developing an alternative method of analysis of the economic process and related sustainability issues: it is possible to perform an integrated and comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of socio-economic systems using indicators and variables that have been so far ignored by conventional economists. The book's innovative approach aims to provide a better framework with which we can face the predicaments of sustainability issues. It begins by presenting practical examples of the shortcomings of conventional economic analysis and examines the systemic problems faced when trying to use quantitative analysis for governance. In p...
The world oil production trend in the coming years and decades is indisputably important. There are many scenarios, but their differences affect their reliability. Economists and geologists preparing such scenarios rely on data and reasoning that are often more complementary than contradictory to one another as they emphasize different points. Thus it is increasingly crucial and necessary to compare these various approaches in an honest and efficient dialogue. (author)
The role of energy in pursuit of policies seeking sustainable development is crucial. Correspondingly, the work of energy economists will be affected in many traditional areas of analysis and will require enhanced scope and new expertise. This would lead to a better understanding of the place of natural resources in the production process, better delineation of trade-offs between avoidance of ecological degradation and economic stagnation, and more interdisciplinary feed-back. (author)
This paper presents some of the contributions from economics regarding the climate issue, and shows that the Kyoto Protocol deviates in a number of essential ways from recommendations based on economic theory. It also demonstrates that considerably greater emissions reductions than are required by the Kyoto Protocol are necessary to prevent significant temperature changes. Even with large emissions reductions we can expect considerable temperature change in the next century. Finally, it discusses how economists might play an important role in the future. (author)
Kahn, Alfred E.; Goolsbee, Austan; Bailey, Elizabeth E.; Faulhaber, Gerald R.; Mayo, John; Flamm, Kenneth; Baily, Martin Neil; Milgrom, Paul; Cramton, Peter; Gilbert, Richard; Hall, Robert E.; Litan, Robert E.; Hahn, Robert W.; Greenstein, Shane; Hazlett, Thomas W.
In this statement, a group of economists assembled by the AEI-Brookings Joint Center makes the following two recommendations to improve the competitive provision of broadband services. First, Congress should eliminate local franchising regulations, which serve as a barrier to new entry. Second, Congress and the Federal Communications Commission should make more spectrum available to private parties and allow them to use it as they see fit or trade their licenses in the market, so that spectru...
The usage of the cloud services in the professional education of the future economists are investigated. The following cloud services are analyzed in the paper: 1) the cloud service gantter for project management, its resources management, risks evaluation with example of the capabilities for Ganter diagram creation, project critical path determination based on gantter cloud service are considered; 2) the cloud service SageMath Cloud with capabilities of programming languages R, Python, Cytho...
De Silva, S
The point to be made in this article about the changing demography of Sri Lanka is that demographic conditions (an older population and growth rate of 1.6) are favorable for economic growth. Planning for economic growth is demonstrated in discussing trends and their relationship to economic development rather than providing a macroeconomic analysis. The 1st demographic characteristic of importance is the age structure of the population, which identifies labor force potential, dependents, and those not economically active in order to calculate required social services. Consumer expenditure patterns are affected, as well as educational costs. The rapid mortality decline of the 1940's and the high fertility up to the 1960's created a broad based age structure that swelled student populations and labor force (unemployment). The 1980's is marked by 39% 15 years in 1981 versus 35% in 1971, and 6.4$ 60 years in 1981 versus 6.6% in 1971. Anticipated trends based on either 2.1, 2.5, or 2.9 children/mother indicate that the population structure would remain the same except for those 0-14 years. This amounts to 20-21.3 million by 2001 and 5.5-6.7 million 15 years. Economic planning is affected by the following age groups: preschoolers, school age children, working population, and old age population. A gradual decline in preschoolers would eventually lead to a 9% population versus a 13% in 2001. 23% of the current population of 5-14 year olds will decrease after 1996 with slow or medium growth to 19-21%. The next 2 decades will experience a swelling of the working age population from 9.56 million to 12.7 million, which was 15 years ago the total population figure. The rate change is from 58.2% to 60-63%. By 2001 the 60 year old population will be 9% (1.8 million) or equal to those 5 years. Attention, thus, needs to be paid to the equitability of distribution of services and improvement in quality rather than expansion. New jobs need to be created to prevent high unemployment
Full Text Available The article analyzes the approaches to compliance methodological heritage of macro-and microeconomics theory to modern economic development challenges. Thesis about need of the methodological tools extension for the analysis of new processes and phenomena at the supranational level is argued. The expediency of strengthening interdisciplinary approach in their evaluation, which will provide a more objective and comprehensive understanding of nature and mechanisms of transformation of international economic relations in the modern era, and thus will improve the quality of professional training of international economists is substantiated.
Gender perspective is a heuristic device in researching social phenomena, and gender inequality is a social fact which requires an adequate answer. Also, social differences between women and men are examined as relevant factors of demographic phenomena. The contemporary demography is opening up space not only for the gender aspect, but also for gender inequality as a relevant research topic. This paper discusses the possibilities of demographic approach to studying social inequality between w...
Long, Samantha Jo
Observing the current popularity of the zombie narrative in American culture, this thesis explores the questions "why zombie?" and "why now?" through a combination of research and the creation of an original zombie story. Moving beyond existing criticism which argues that the zombie transforms to fit each generation's specific fears, I argue that zombie movies, novels, and video games from George A. Romero-onwards continually speak to a distrust of science and scientific progress while additionally romanticizing the post-apocalyptic landscape. Consequently, the zombie's unprecedented mainstream popularity over the last fifteen years could be read as symptomatic of this distrust intensifying, paralleling an increasing politicization of science and a rise in apocalyptic thinking within the public sphere. Through the deconstruction of my own zombie story, I uncover not only what these timely narratives tell us about our perceptions of the future, but also how they can help us change them.
Full Text Available Il documento è un contributo ad una serie di ricordi e riflessioni sulle esperienze professionali di illustri economisti per Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review iniziate nel 1979. In esso Charles P. Kindleberger riflette sulla sua vita e la sua carriera , dai suoi anni formativi a sua esperienze nel mondo accademico .The paper is a contribution to a series of recollections and reflections on the professional experiences of distinguished economists which the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review started in 1979. In it Charles P. Kindleberger reflects on his life and career, from his formative years to his experiences in academia.JEL: B31, A20
A. A. Tkachenko
Full Text Available The article specifies the correlation between economic demography and the economy of population as the most important scientific areas of modern research. It is concluded that the Russian scientific community lags in the development of these sciences from the world scientific thought. Special attention is paid to the works and ideas of S. Kuznets and Amartya Sen as outstanding researchers of the interrelationships between the population and the economy. It is emphasized that their contribution was not only theoretical but also of practical importance. The importance of G. Myrdal’s works for modern studies of the consequences of population aging is considered. The article examines foreign training courses on “Population Economics”, presented at the Universities of Wisconsin and McMaster, their analysis led to the conclusion that the preparation of textbooks on courses is less productive than the use of scientific articles in journals, containing more recent ideas and achievements of science. The author considers the system, proposed in the course Michel Grignon and Byron G. Spencer «The Economics of Population» more preferable. The article substantiates the opinion that the economic theory of well-being should be the core of the population economy. It is concluded that the differences between economic demography and the economy of population are not just differences between the micro- and macro levels, as some authors write, but the transition to large scales and entropy.The author identifies three most important areas of demo-economic research, which include research in the field of human capital, international economic migration, especially remittance, analysis of the stratification of the population and society by the income in the global and national economies. One can single out the general area of interests of the population economy and economic demography in which these sciences are almost impossible to divide and in which only
Romano, Richard M.
This essay canvasses selected studies undertaken by economists on the community college. Key authors and journals are noted, followed by an examination of what economists contribute to our understanding of the community college in terms of costs, price and financial aid, economic and social benefits, and the institution's role in furthering…
Caplan, Bryan; Miller, Stephen C.
Education is by far the strongest predictor of whether a non-economist will share the economic beliefs of the average economist. (Caplan, 2001) Is the effect of education as large as it seems? Or is education largely a proxy for cognitive ability? Using data from the General Social Survey (GSS), we show that the estimated effect of education…
In recent decades education is increasingly perceived as an instrument for generating economic growth and enhancing production. Unexpectedly, however, many prominent economists, throughout history, have rejected this view of education. This article examines the grounds on which Tibor Scitovsky, who was one of the leading economists of twentieth…
Madsen, Poul Thøis
Heterodox economists have ’always’ criticized mainstream economic textbooks, but what about criticisms forwarded by mainstream economists? A limited but rather overlooked and lively mainstream debate is identified. The criticisms aired in this debate almost seem to be forgotten although most...
The content of professional mobility of future economists in the writings of foreign scientists have been presented. The components of future economists' professional mobility formation have been considered. It has been established that the possession of a combination of these components enables future specialists to achieve a high level of…
Daniel de Vasconcelos Guimarães
Full Text Available In the present study, I drew a correlation between Søren Kierkegaard’s (1813-1855 existentialist theory and apocalyptic representations in the Metal Gear Solid: Snake Eater, Peace Walker and Ground Zeroes video games (Konami Computer Entertainment Japan, Kojima Productions, 2004, 2010 and 2014. In this successful franchise, the game’s main character, ‘Snake’ personifies ‘the knight of infinite resignation,’ the ‘tragic hero’ in ‘the infinite movement’ towards the achievement of ‘higher causes’. Also, Snake’s mentor ‘The Boss’, who sacrifices herself in order to reconcile the world from its 1960’s Cold War antagonism would represent another Kierkegaard notion called ‘the knight of faith’, who believes in his/her faith (the cause above all things. Such character traits enrich both gameplay and game narrative and the overall experience by introducing philosophical inquiries to the player. The methodology utilized was a free-form semiotic framework with emphasis on the symbolic representations along with Kierkegaard’s existentialism and other philosophical constructs as well.
Full Text Available The following paper deals with the interpretation of one of the major “Cromwellian” poems of Andrew Marvell (1621-1678, “The First Anniversary of the Government under His Highness the Lord Protector”, 1655. The poem is first set in the context of Marvell’s poetry and his public career in the period between 1637 and 1660. The article then identifies and analyses three main themes of “The First Anniversary”: the notion of a new aeon starting with Cromwell’s rule and the apocalyptical imagery related to his Protectorate, the concept of his power and authority between liberty and tyranny, and the relation between the harmony established by Cromwell and classical Pythagorean harmonious lore. The author argues that the imagery Marvell uses to describe the nature of the regime (especially the concept of Cromwell’s “no-kingship” shows a deeply paradoxical structure, which uncovers the frailty and insecurity of Cromwell’s dictatorship as well as the circular logic of its justification. In that sense, the poem can be read as a vivid manifestation of the dilemmas and tensions of this period.
Full Text Available Introduction. The aim of this paper is to deal with the information seeking and use problem in a professional context and understand how activity can influence practices, by taking as examples, the research undertaken by economic analysts. We analyse the relationship between the situational approach, described by Cheuk, the work environment complexity (with social, technological and personal aspects, and the information seeking and use strategies, which relied on Ellis and Wilson's model, with Bates's comments. Method. We interviewed eight economists, using a questionnaire and the SICIA (Situation, Complexity and Information Activity method. The SICAI method is a qualitative approach, which underlines the relationship between situations, professional contexts and strategies. Both methods allow better understanding of how investment analysts find out what they need for their job. We can clarify their information sources and practices of information seeking, which are very particular because of their activities. We complete our analysis by interviewing analysts from financial institutions. Analysis. A qualitative mode of analysis was used to interpret the interviewees' comments, within the research framework adopted. Results. We find similarity in information seeking and use strategies used by these two groups and environmental levels meet in most situations. But some differences can be also found, explained by the activity frameworks and goals. Conclusion. This study demonstrates that the activity and also the professional context (here the financial context can directly influence practices.
Full Text Available The usage of the cloud services in the professional education of the future economists are investigated. The following cloud services are analyzed in the paper: 1 the cloud service gantter for project management, its resources management, risks evaluation with example of the capabilities for Ganter diagram creation, project critical path determination based on gantter cloud service are considered; 2 the cloud service SageMath Cloud with capabilities of programming languages R, Python, Cython GAP usage for data analysis with example of the linear regression model construction on data sample based on the language R usage are considered; 3 Google’s cloud service based on the spreadsheets for the linear programming problems solving based on the tool Solver for the linear optimization problem is investigated; 4 the educational project Big Data University the main goal of which is learning of the students to handle big data based on the cloud technologies with the capabilities to learn request language SQL, language R for data analyses and the methods for data warehouse preprocessing are considered; 5 the cloud services from «1С» and «BuhSoft» studying of the accounting information systems with the reports creation and payroll capabilities are analyzed.
Briti majandusajakiri The Economist nimetas aastaülevaates president Toomas Hendrik Ilvese 2006. aasta tõusvaks täheks Euroopa poliitikas. Ingl. k. ilmunud ka: In Time 2007, kevad, lk. 22, pealk.: Estonia's President a rising star
The annual conference of the Association of Energy Economists held on October 26. in Paris, has focused on the convergence of gas and electricity. The main themes, as well as the debates which followed are introduced in this article. (authors)
Berger, Peggy; And Others
The problem of unavailable, unaffordable housing in the United States is apt to worsen. Three articles examine the factors that are associated with homelessness and discuss the role of home economists as it relates to possible solutions. (JOW)
Haferkamp, A.; Fetchenhauer, D.; Belschak, F.; Enste, D.
The present study examines the criteria used by economic laypeople (N = 380 German citizens) and economists (N = 80 professors or postgraduates in economics) in judging reform measures as illustrated by policies of governmental labor market intervention policies. Results reveal substantial
Graham, R J
Economists use demography in planning and forecasting business needs. As a bank, Westpac uses the information for its own internal business purposes and to assess general economic trends. Externally, the bank is expected by government and the public to have some authoritative views on the state of the economy. To form these views, it is necessary to understand a very wide array of statistical indicators, including demographic statistics. The main population issues of concern are: size, location, and changes in the population of Australia as a whole and by State; labor force (including projections); age profile of Australia and by State. The major source for this information is the Australian Bureau of Statistics. More detailed patterns often emerge, particularly for individual States, from papers prepared by others. This information is used by Westpac in 3 main planning areas and 2 broad assessment areas: planning -- location of bank branches, products/services offered, and marketing of products/services; and assessment -- economic outlook (labor force, housing needs, demand for funds) and specific industries. Recently, Westpac restructured its organization to cater to the changing needs of customers and the changing geographic patterns of population spread. The bank now has 4 major groups: retail financial services for personal and commercial markets; corporate and international; management services; and group planning (includes economic department). To offer products that fit the market, the bank needs to know the characteristics of the population by age, spending patterns, lifestyle preferences, and investment needs. Within Australia, a relatively new service offered by most financial institutions, which is directly related to population issues, is a counseling service for retirees. Westpac has a product called Club 55, which is a package of services designed for persons who have retired or are planning to retire. Another clearly perceived community need is for
Wakker, Peter P
This article is a personal account of the author's experiences as an economist working in medical decision making. He discusses the differences between economic decision theory and medical decision making and gives examples of the mutual benefits resulting from interactions. In particular, he discusses the pros and cons of different methods for measuring quality of life (or, as economists would call it, utility), including the standard gamble, the time tradeoff, and the healthy-years equivalent methods.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of South America...
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product contains the source code for the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED version 1.0) as well as model input and output data for a portion of...
Issayev, T; Masalimova, A; Magzumova, R
In modern conditions, there is a tendency to replace the qualification approach of assessing economists in medical organizations - competence. The purpose of the study was to identify the professional and personal abilities of economists in medical organizations to actively participate in the management decisions of the medical organization in the transition from public administration to the right of economic management. The study was carried out in 3 stages. At the first stage, the degree of influence of the experience of the economist, the frequency of training and its burden on the profitability of the medical organization was analyzed. At the second stage - the personal evaluation of the respondents by psychodiagnostic methods (memory, attention, the level of the person's orientation, self-esteem, the level of personal claims). At the third stage, the data of professional behavior and personal evaluation were summarized in the table of SWOT-analysis factors, for determining the personnel strategy of development of economists in medical organizations. The sample size was 43 respondents, which amounted to 10.3% of the participation of medical organizations. The results of the SWOT analysis of the personal and professional qualities of medical economists in medical organizations showed the predominance of weaknesses in corporate competencies among medical economists over strong ones, while personal opportunities prevail over risks. In general, the professional-personal SWOT analysis showed the prevalence of the possibilities of medical economists (Ps=5,3) over threats (Ps = 4,9), strong (Ps = 4,4) and weak sides (Ps = 3,8). At the same time, the force of influence does not suffice: the length of work for profitability (r = -0.3, p economist to employees on the growth of the specific weight of paid services (r = 0.001, p economists on the profitability of the medical organization (r = 0.7, peconomists, the higher the profitability, showed our results in the studied
only the past positive and present hedonistic time dimensions predicted life satisfaction among patients. Conclusion Anorexia patients were less satisfied with life despite being more conscientious, social, and agreeable than controls. Moreover, compared to controls, patients had an unbalanced time perspective: a dark view of the past (i.e., high past negative, a restrained present (i.e., low present hedonistic and an apocalyptic view of the future (i.e., high present fatalistic. It is plausible to suggest that, therapeutic interventions should focus on empowering patients to cultivate a sentimental and positive view of the past (i.e., high past positive and the desire to experience pleasure without concern for future consequences (i.e., high present hedonistic so that they can make self-directed and flexible choices for their own well-being. Such interventions might have effects on life satisfaction beyond the patients’ temperamental disposition.
Garcia, Danilo; Granjard, Alexandre; Lundblad, Suzanna; Archer, Trevor
time dimensions predicted life satisfaction among patients. Anorexia patients were less satisfied with life despite being more conscientious, social, and agreeable than controls. Moreover, compared to controls, patients had an unbalanced time perspective: a dark view of the past (i.e., high past negative), a restrained present (i.e., low present hedonistic) and an apocalyptic view of the future (i.e., high present fatalistic). It is plausible to suggest that, therapeutic interventions should focus on empowering patients to cultivate a sentimental and positive view of the past (i.e., high past positive) and the desire to experience pleasure without concern for future consequences (i.e., high present hedonistic) so that they can make self-directed and flexible choices for their own well-being. Such interventions might have effects on life satisfaction beyond the patients' temperamental disposition.
Wells, Kenneth B
2002 Carl Taube Lecture at the NIMH Mental Health Economics Meeting. To analyze the contribution and process of clinician/economist collaboration. Personal scientific autobiography, using relationships with three economists as case examples. In joint efforts by clinicians and economists, clinicians bring an interest in case examples and in responding to unmet need, while economists bring structured analysis methods and respect for a societal perspective. Through mutual respect and discovery, both clinicians and economists can define unmet need in clinical and economic terms and help develop models and programs to improve clinical care, while maintaining a societal evaluation perspective. Key to scientific discovery is the principle that the emotions generated by data, such as hope and despair, need to be acknowledged and utilized rather than avoided or buried, provided that such feelings are used in a balanced manner in research. According to the author, collaboration helps maintain such a balance. Collaboration requires and builds trust, and improves the depth of research by combining different personal and disciplinary perspectives and strengths. Young investigators should be encouraged to explore collaboration and to consider their feelings in response to health and economic data as an important scientific and creative resource.
Turkalo, Andrea K.; Wrege, Peter H.
African forest elephants face severe threats from illegal killing for ivory and bushmeat and habitat conversion. Due to their cryptic nature and inaccessible range, little information on the biology of this species has been collected despite its iconic status. Compiling individual based monitoring data collected over 20 years from the Dzanga Bai population in Central African Republic, we summarize sex and age specific survivorship and female age specific fecundity for a cohort of 1625 individually identified elephants. Annual mortality (average = 3.5%) and natality (average = 5.3%) were lower and markedly less variable relative to rates reported for savanna elephant populations. New individuals consistently entered the study system, leading to a 2.5% average annual increase in the registered population. Calf sex ratios among known birth did not differ from parity. A weak seasonal signal in births was detected suggesting increased conceptions during the wet season. Inter-calf intervals and age of primiparity were longer relative to savanna elephant populations. Within the population, females between the ages of 25–39 demonstrated the shortest inter-calf intervals and highest fecundity, and previous calf sex had no influence on the interval. Calf survivorship was high (97%) the first two years after birth and did not differ by sex. Male and female survival began to differ by the age of 13 years, and males demonstrated significantly lower survival relative to females by the age of 20. It is suspected these differences are driven by human selection for ivory. Forest elephants were found to have one of the longest generation times recorded for any species at 31 years. These data provide fundamental understanding of forest elephant demography, providing baseline data for projecting population status and trends. PMID:29447207
Teitelbaum, Michael S
The interconnections between politics and the dramatic demographic changes under way around the world have been neglected by the two research disciplines that could contribute most to their understanding: demography and political science. Instead, this area of 'political demography' has largely been ceded to political activists, pundits, and journalists, leading often to exaggerated or garbled interpretation. The terrain includes some of the most politically sensitive and contested issues: alleged demographically determined shifts in the international balance of power; low fertility, population decline, and demographic ageing; international migration; change in national identity; and compositional shifts in politically sensitive social categories and human rights. Meanwhile many governments and non-governmental actors have actively pursued varieties of 'strategic demography', deploying fertility, mortality, or migration as instruments of domestic or international policy. Political scientists and demographers could and should use their knowledge and analytic techniques to improve understanding and to moderate excessive claims and fears on these topics.
Shaw, W. Douglass; Woodward, Richard T. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A and M University (United States)
Experimental and theoretical analysis has shown that the conventional expected utility (EU) and subjective expected utility (SEU) models, which are linear in probabilities, have serious limitations in certain situations. We argue here that these limitations are often highly relevant to the work that environmental and natural resource economists do. We discuss some of the experimental evidence and alternatives to the SEU. We consider the theory used, the problems studied, and the methods employed by resource economists. Finally, we highlight some recent work that has begun to use some of the alternatives to the EU and SEU frameworks and discuss areas where much future work is needed. (author)
Nelson, Julie A.
A number of recent discussions about ethical issues in climate change, as engaged in by economists, have focused on the value of the parameter representing the rate of time preference within models of optimal growth. This essay examines many economists' antipathy to serious discussion of ethical matters, and suggests that the avoidance of questions of intergenerational equity is related to another set of value judgments concerning the quality and objectivity of economic practice. Using insights from feminist philosophy of science and research on high reliability organizations, this essay argues that a more ethically transparent, real-world-oriented, and flexible economic practice would lead to more reliable and useful knowledge. (author)
Kleckner, Christopher; Udevitz, Mark S.; Adams, Layne G.; Shults, Brad S.
largely from studies in central or southern Alaska and the southern Yukon. However, sheep in northwestern Alaska are at the northwestern extreme of their range and live in a less hospitable environment characterized by short growing seasons and long, severe winters. We expect patterns of productivity and survival for sheep in Noatak National Preserve to differ from the more southerly populations. To adequately manage sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska, we need a better understanding of sheep demography. Along with unbiased population estimates, understanding the dynamics of sheep populations in the region will allow population models to be developed that can provide focus for a useful dialog on management goals and strategies and facilitate a cooperative strategy for managing sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska.
Felipe G.K. Buttelli
Full Text Available This article proposes three reflexive movements. The first one offers an introduction to Fees Must Fall, pointing to some aspects that allow us to understand it as a social movement and some of its basic features. The second movement is a theoretical one, constructing the notion of emancipatory politics. It is based on the distinctions suggested by Jacques Rancière between ‘police and politics’ and by Michael Neocosmos between ‘excessive and expressive’ politics. It will also present the Freirean notion of ‘conscientisation and dialogicity’, emphasising the learning experience from the political praxis within emancipatory social movements. The third movement offers, as conclusion, an apocalyptic politics as suggested by Žižek, envisioned through the lens of Christian eschatology, as a critical approach to social movements towards the radical transformation of society.
Ilmunud ka: Postimees : na russkom jazõke 24. nov. lk. 8. Briti ajakirja Economist teostatud uuringu järgi on Rootsi maailma kõige demokraatlikum riik, USA on 17. ja Eesti 33. kohal. Lisa: Kõige vabamad ja piiratumad maad. Kommenteerib Mall Hellam
The article consolidates information sources on the issues of future economists' self-study organization at foreign universities. There has been carried out the study of approaches to the interpretation of the term "self-study process" in the contemporary scientific thought abroad. There have been specified the productive ideas of…
Ling, Gilbert N
This is a copy of (the bulk of) a letter I mailed on May 13, 2004 to Sir Robert P. Wilson, President, and three editors of the magazine, the Economist. With the letter, I also sent each recipient a copy of my latest book, "Life at the Cell and Below-Cell Level" as a gesture of good will.
Beckmann, Klaus; Schneider, Andrea
Using a new panel data set comprising publication and appointment data for 889 German academic economists over a quarter of a century, we confirm the familiar hypothesis that publications are important for professorial appointments, but find only a small negative effect of appointments on subsequent research productivity, in particular if one…
Full Text Available In the article modern presentations in relation to a structure and semantic filling of components of informative competence of future economists are analysed, placed in professional sources. The necessity of development of program tools of evident and consultative purpose, suitable for the high-quality capture by future economists by new program tools of educational and professional purpose in the conditions of the limited time, is grounded. By comparison of basic possibilities of freely expandable computer tools of creation of videos-consultations the program tool of creation of dynamic videos-consultations proper to the subject of the educational discipline «Informative systems and technologies» is select, which is foreseen by the curriculum of professional preparation of future economists. The separate standards of videos-consultations are developed and experimental verification of functioning of these program tools is carried out. In the process of pedagogical experiment were explored and compared the generalized indexes of educational progress – middle mark and coefficient of quality of educational progress of students on the most difficult themes of discipline the «Informative systems and technologies» in control and experimental groups. In the process of statistical data analysis, got as a result of pedagogical experiment, the indexes of descriptive statistics and criterion were calculated, what conclusions in relation to efficiency and fitness of the developed videos-consultations to the use in the system of forming of informative competence of future economists are formulated on the basis of.
Paolo Sylos Labini
Full Text Available In his obituary of Ernesto Rossi, the author describes the political and cultural legacy of the Italian economist. The author summarises the main contributions by Rossi in the fields of labour market, public finance, European federation, and Fascism.
At this time Soviet demographic scientists maintain the position that population problems may in fact exist temporarily under socialism but that the planning principle will allow society to resolve population problems, through the use of the administrative, moral, and economic levers (subsidies, government policies, propaganda, education) emphasized by Urlanis (1974) and others. For planners to deal effectively with population management, the determinants of fertility and labor force participation must be established. The foundations of Soviet theories of human capital and fertility were laid by several writers. For the sake of simplicity, these are referred to as the Urlanis-Strumilin model, named after 2 pioneer researchers in Soviet demography and manpower economics. The formulations are based upon the writings of Strumlin (1964) and Urlanis (1974), supplemented by writings of numerous other Soviet researchers. Although their models avoid neoclassical terms such as marginal utility and income and price elasticities, they clearly employ these concepts. The Urlanis-Strumilin model, reduced to its basic elements, is a direct household utility maximizing model. The husband and wife, the household decision makers, must select optimal levels of child "quantity," child "quality," leisure, their own human capital (further education and training), and other goods. The Soviet theory recognizes that an increase in household income will increase relatively the demands for income elastic goods. The model postulates that the demand for child quality is inversely related to the price of children. The price of children is the opportunity cost of children, the major element of which is the income foregone by the mother in the course of childbearing and childrearing. The child quantity demand schedule has elastic and inelastic portions. The marginal utility of the 1st child is great. The marginal utilities of higher order children decline substantially. Families with at least 1
Full Text Available The role of reading competence in the structure of English professionally oriented communicative competence has been analysed; types of economics texts which should be used in teaching future economists – scientific economics texts, texts of professional economics activity, educational economics texts, texts of non-professional economics activity have been defined; the necessity of using not only authentic, but also semi-authentic and adapted texts in teaching future economists to read English texts related to professional area has been grounded; bachelor’s level requirements for students’ knowledge and skills in skimming, scanning reading and reading for detail have been defined; direct (cognitive and compensatory and indirect (metacognitive, affective and social learning strategies to enhance the quality of text reading have been specified in the article.
Cletus C. Coughlin
Despite economists’ nearly universal support of free trade, the general public in the United States has serious reservations about it. In this article, Cletus C. Coughlin examines the reasons for this difference of opinion and the primary suggestions for bridging this gap.> Economists stress that free trade allows and, in fact, forces a nation to maximize the (net) value of the goods and services produced within its borders. Similarly, free trade allows consumers to maximize the net benefits ...
Marco Carre Benzi, David
The present thesis is an enquiry about two distinct but complementary issues: the personal dimension of scientific activity, and the influential role that economists have had during the last decades in Chile. Regarding the former, this work complements existing philosophical, social, and psychological studies of science with a cultural psychology perspective. This perspective aims to be sensitive to the personal nature of the scientific activity but also to the cultural conditions in which sc...
Khmaladze, Estáte V
Suitable for statisticians, mathematicians, actuaries, and students interested in the problems of insurance and analysis of lifetimes, Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance presents contemporary statistical techniques for analyzing life distributions and life insurance problems. It not only contains traditional material but also incorporates new problems and techniques not discussed in existing actuarial literature. The book mainly focuses on the analysis of an individual life and describes statistical methods based on empirical and related processes. Coverage ranges from analyzing the tails of distributions of lifetimes to modeling population dynamics with migrations. To help readers understand the technical points, the text covers topics such as the Stieltjes, Wiener, and Itô integrals. It also introduces other themes of interest in demography, including mixtures of distributions, analysis of longevity and extreme value theory, and the age structure of a population. In addi...
Ruslan V. Mann
Full Text Available The article is devoted to the analysis of the peculiarities of forming the competences of future economists in the process of obtaining educational services in higher educational institutions. The views of domestic and foreign scholars on the essential characteristics of the «competence», which are necessary for the qualitative fulfillment of official duties by future economists, are presented. The requirements of the labor market for future specialists in economics and accounting are analyzed, in particular, regarding to the effective possession of information and communication competencies. The results of the admission campaign of 2017-2018 academic year in the specialties 076 «Entrepreneurship, trade and stock-taking», 051 «Economics» and 071 «Accounting and taxation» of the bachelor and master's levels are demonstrated. The content of educational programs for preparing the economic direction specialists, competitive in the labor market, is considered. The ways of improving the quality of educational services for the preparation of future economists in order to ensure the possibility of their further employment in the specialty are proposed.
Stegelin, Forrest E.
The Economist first launched the concept of the Big Mac Index in 1986 as a guide to whether currencies were at their correct exchange rate; it is not intended to be a precise predictor of currency movements around the globe, but simply a way to make exchange-rate theory and discussions a bit more digestible. First used as a humorous illustration, the term â€œburgernomicsâ€ was coined and the Big Mac index became an annual occurrence. It is based upon one of the oldest concepts in internationa...
Full Text Available Behavioral economics has addressed interesting positive and normative questions underlying the standard rational choice theory. More recently, it suggests that, in a real world of boundedly rational agents, economists could help people to improve the quality of their choices without any harm to autonomy and freedom of choice. This paper aims to scrutinize available arguments for and against current proposals of light paternalistic interventions mainly in the domain of intertemporal choice. It argues that incorporating the notion of bounded rationality in economic analysis and empirical findings of cognitive biases and self-control problems cannot make an indisputable case for paternalism.
Hairong Mu; Dimitrios Paparas
In the twenty-first century, teaching practitioners in higher education (HE) have found themselves confronted with more challenges to help students engage in learning. Particularly, one of the main problems with the traditional lecture format to teach non-economists economics is that students tend to lack interest in the subject and therefore have a low level of engagement. Student response systems (i.e. “clickers”) have been used in classes for about 20 years and become more popular on many ...
Full Text Available Our American virus of declining newspaper circulation seems to be sparing The Economist, an international British weekly filled with heavy duty stats and big words, whose American circulation of over a million now snubs the shrinking 600,000 readers of the Los Angeles Times.Its absence of bylines may please some jaded American readers, while others may be hooked by its coverage of foreign climes and exotica. What’s most striking, though, is The Economist’s blatant intellectual snobbery, especially its pervasive aping of the London Times Crossword, a traditional status symbol for “too clever by half” sophisticates like Detective Inspector Morse.
Creel, Scott; Christianson, David; Liley, Stewart; Winnie, John A
Elk (Cervus elaphus) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem alter patterns of aggregation, habitat selection, vigilance, and foraging in the presence of wolves (Canis lupus). Antipredator behaviors like these can reduce predation risk but are also likely to carry costs. Data from five elk populations studied for 16 site years showed that progesterone concentrations (from 1489 fecal samples) declined with the ratio of elk to wolves. In turn, progesterone concentrations were a good predictor of calf recruitment in the subsequent year. Together, these data suggest that wolves indirectly affect the reproductive physiology and the demography of elk through the costs of antipredator behavior.
Full Text Available In the twenty-first century, teaching practitioners in higher education (HE have found themselves confronted with more challenges to help students engage in learning. Particularly, one of the main problems with the traditional lecture format to teach non-economists economics is that students tend to lack interest in the subject and therefore have a low level of engagement. Student response systems (i.e. “clickers” have been used in classes for about 20 years and become more popular on many college campuses. Many studies reveal that clicker technology offers great promise in increasing students’ participation and engagement in lectures. Meanwhile, thanks to fast development of mobile technology, personal mobile devices can be integrated with clicker systems into teaching and learning with improved features. The programme we used and found as a very useful interactive teaching tool for learning is called Kahoot!. This paper offers a brief guidance on how to use Kahoot! to encourage active learning and engage non-economics majors in learning economics. Meanwhile, the existing relevant literature with regard to the use of clickers in HE is highlighted. In addition, the effectiveness of using Kahoot! in teaching economics to non-economists is evaluated by a student survey.
Krapf, Sandra; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Wolf, Katharina
Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America, has been given the highest rating among demographic journals by the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Our aim here is to investigate the development of research subfields and female authorship in Demography over the last
Scott, Richard I.; Smith, Patricia J.; Cognard-Black, Andrew J.
Beginning in 2013 and spanning four research articles, we have implemented an empirical analysis protocol for honors education that is rooted in demography (Scott; Scott and Smith; Smith and Scott "Growth"; Smith and Scott, "Demography"). The goal of this protocol is to describe the structure and distribution of the honors…
Stefanescu, P.; Ghitescu, P.
To select and licence a NPP site, as well as, once built, to run it, both demography and ecology of the geographical zone are crucial factors to take into account. On the other side the location and running of a NPP is a major factor in the economic and social development of NPP site surroundings. Meanwhile the population distribution around the NPP site has a determining role on intervention and rehabilitation plans. Risk and danger studies should be done for initial situation as well as during NPP running. The character of radioactive risks and the importance of possible consequences of a hypothetical nuclear accident which could affect a big Nuclear Power Plant request a special attention to population distribution around the plant site and surroundings. Therefore safety studies to locate and licence a site should refer to demography and ecology. Available data examination will permit to locate NPP in less-populated and ecologically not-concerning zones. On-site investigation should identify the population groups to watch for in order to estimate the results of a normal evaluation. The inquires will give reference primary data before NPP construction starts. Also they evaluate the possibility of short term population retain on location in case of an accident. (authors)
Culyer, A J
Eleven papers in medical sociology, recommended as representative by the Medical Sociology Group of the British Sociology Association, are evaluated by a health economist using five criteria: appeal of intellectual content, insights into political philosophy, explanatory power, predictive power and opportunities for social improvements. The paper concludes that the medical sociology literature is quite weak when judged by these criteria, though stronger on some than others. Sociologists often seem to confuse issues that involve value judgements with ones that do not, and generally seem to display a disconcerting obsession with methodological issues of the most fundamental kind that has inhibited medical sociology from developing interesting analyses of many issues on which, in principle, it ought to have much to offer.
RADA Ioan Constantin
Full Text Available In order to face globalization effectively, it is clear that we must learn to manage it better, paying more attention to poor areas and people. We must pay attention to other values beside profits and GDP.Unfortunately, the international institutions (International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Trade Organization responsible for establishing and managing the global economy have made it in a waymarked by shortcomings. Deficiencies in terms of democracy, through certain interests (agriculture, oil, medicine, etc. of economically advanced countries. Also, there is imbalance in the priority list and the results of each area of globalization. Managers and engineer economists have to deal with it by recognizing that globalization will put pressure on destructuring national economies (through the disappearance of some industries reducing wages, the need for training and reconversion of workforce.
Why did globalization happen? Current explanations point to a variety of conditions under which states have made the free market policy changes driving international economic integration since the 1980s. Such accounts disagree, however, about the key actors involved. This article provides a reconciliation, showing how two different combinations of actors, and two different political economic pathways, have led to globalization in recent decades. In developed countries, mobilization by business has been central; elsewhere, technocrats both constrained and empowered by international finance have pursued globalization more independently of business. In both contexts, economists' technical authority has helped legitimate liberalization, despite the limited diffusion of their ideas. The article validates and elaborates this model using a comparative-historical study of how the United States, Canada, and Mexico proposed, negotiated, and ratified agreements for free trade in North America.
Data collection and modelling are increasingly important in social science and science-based policy, but threaten to crowd out other ways of thinking. Economists recognize that markets embody and shed light on human sentiments. However, their ethical consequences have been difficult to interpret, let alone manage. Although economic mechanisms are changed by data intensity, they can be redesigned to restore their benefits. We conclude with four cautions: if data are good, more may not be better; scientifically desirable data properties may not help policy; consent is a double-edged tool; and data exist only because someone thought to capture and codify them.This article is part of the themed issue 'The ethical impact of data science'. © 2016 The Author(s).
Salvador Marín Hernández
Full Text Available The present work gives the results from surveying a sample of Spanish economists who gave their opinions about the skills and abilities they had acquired during their university studies. The results showed that the more valued university studies included learning based on cases and concrete problems, direct acquisition of experience, learning from computer studies and understanding theories and concepts. The least valued undergraduate studies included aspects such as emphasis on research, the opportunity to participate in projects or giving academic advice. Those being surveyed stated that they regarded knowledge acquired in accountancy, finance, law, marketing, strategy, human resources, mathematics, microeconomics, operation management, Spanish or world economics and statistics as being extremely or very important for obtaining their degree and in their work after university.
Murray, C.E.; Lee, W.J.
The purpose of this report is to provide a bibliography for the Native American tribe participants in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to use. The HEDR Project's primary objective is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Eight Native American tribes are responsible for estimating daily and seasonal consumption of traditional foods, demography, and other lifestyle factors that could have affected the radiation dose received by tribal members. This report provides a bibliography of recorded accounts that tribal researchers may use to verify their estimates. The bibliographic citations include references to information on the specific tribes, Columbia River plateau ethnobotany, infant feeding practices and milk consumption, nutritional studies and radiation, tribal economic and demographic characteristics (1940--1970), research methods, primary sources from the National Archives, regional archives, libraries, and museums
Murray, C.E.; Lee, W.J.
The purpose of this report is to provide a bibliography for the Native American tribe participants in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to use. The HEDR Project's primary objective is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Eight Native American tribes are responsible for estimating daily and seasonal consumption of traditional foods, demography, and other lifestyle factors that could have affected the radiation dose received by tribal members. This report provides a bibliography of recorded accounts that tribal researchers may use to verify their estimates. The bibliographic citations include references to information on the specific tribes, Columbia River plateau ethnobotany, infant feeding practices and milk consumption, nutritional studies and radiation, tribal economic and demographic characteristics (1940--1970), research methods, primary sources from the National Archives, regional archives, libraries, and museums.
This paper does not address itself to high theory or to complex methodologies; nor does it offer any detailed illumination of key economic concepts. Rather, it focuses on the role of economists and economics (not the same thing) in the formulation of health policies, and in influencing an evaluation of health strategies appropriate to the requirements of the developing world. The paper argues that the 'climate' has changed sufficiently in the developing world to promote a close interest in the economics of health and health care. Evidence exists of a growing willingness to employ economists and economic analysis to resource allocation issues within the health sector. Accordingly, a glossary of economic concepts in presented to demonstrate that economics does possess certain ideas, distinct from other disciplines, which can be of considerable value to health planners and health managers alike. The text also sets out, in tabular form, many of the key questions that should be of close interest to policy-makers, and indicates the economic concepts and techniques that can be applied. At the same time, it is noted that there are very real conceptual and methodological problems likely to be faced by those wishing to apply economic reasoning to the health sector. The paper then moves on from analysis to consider implementation, and investigates the political constraints and institutional barriers to the acceptance of economic analysis in the health sector. In the past, the nature of the economics of health has sometimes been considered improper, i.e. views have been expressed that services should be made available to those for whom they may be beneficial, as a matter of right without regard to economics.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Matuszewski, Sebastian; Hildebrandt, Marcel E; Achaz, Guillaume; Jensen, Jeffrey D
Nonequilibrium demography impacts coalescent genealogies leaving detectable, well-studied signatures of variation. However, similar genomic footprints are also expected under models of large reproductive skew, posing a serious problem when trying to make inference. Furthermore, current approaches consider only one of the two processes at a time, neglecting any genomic signal that could arise from their simultaneous effects, preventing the possibility of jointly inferring parameters relating to both offspring distribution and population history. Here, we develop an extended Moran model with exponential population growth, and demonstrate that the underlying ancestral process converges to a time-inhomogeneous psi-coalescent. However, by applying a nonlinear change of time scale-analogous to the Kingman coalescent-we find that the ancestral process can be rescaled to its time-homogeneous analog, allowing the process to be simulated quickly and efficiently. Furthermore, we derive analytical expressions for the expected site-frequency spectrum under the time-inhomogeneous psi-coalescent, and develop an approximate-likelihood framework for the joint estimation of the coalescent and growth parameters. By means of extensive simulation, we demonstrate that both can be estimated accurately from whole-genome data. In addition, not accounting for demography can lead to serious biases in the inferred coalescent model, with broad implications for genomic studies ranging from ecology to conservation biology. Finally, we use our method to analyze sequence data from Japanese sardine populations, and find evidence of high variation in individual reproductive success, but few signs of a recent demographic expansion. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.
Full Text Available Knowing the importance of the integration process of graduates of higher economic studies on a labour market that is becoming more and more demanding, as well as the fact that professional objectives realistic defined represent an essential demand of performance, the present paper aims to determine the relevance of personal decision capacities as a favouring factor of a concrete career option for economist students. Our research is based on information and statistical data obtained through applying tests and questionnaires on economist students from licence and master studies form three universities: University of Oradea, The West University of Timisoara and Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, in the project called PRACTeam The practice of economist students. Inter-regional partnership on the labour market between universities and the business environment Project co-financed through the Social European Fund, Through the Operational Program Human Resource Development 2007 - 2013 'Invest in people!'. In essence we leave from the premises that the professional option reflects a specific side of individual's personality which does not choose only for a certain occupation but, implicitly for a certain lifestyle. As a diagnosis approach we assume axiomatic the thesis according to which the high level of congruence between the individual psychological availabilities and the occupational environment raises the satisfaction chance and professional success. The approach that we submit is an interdisciplinary one, as well as the research team formed of two economists and a psychologist. Our study proposes to identify the correlation between the individual decision ability of the subject and the compatibility between a specific interests set of abilities identified on the basis of individual tests. Also, on the basis of processing the results obtained of economist students at the personality tests, we will try to argument explaining the option of some
The East Midlands in 2006 is the evidence base that was produced to underpin the devleopment of the regional economic strategy, A Flourishing Region. This document presents detailed analysis of the demography of the East Midlands.
Full Text Available The economical-financial problems have always constituted a challenge far all the decisional factors at the state level and not only, thus the financial sciences which also aim to regulate the relationships to create, assign and use the financial funds of the state and of the public institutions, destined to satisfy the social-economical needs of the society recorded a great doctrinal interest. Thus, a series of jurists and economists had understand the necessity and opportunity of knowledge in the domain of financial science, of the financial law, taking into consideration the fact that the difficulties which they have met at those times obliged them to take the responsibility to make every simple citizen and every person with political or administrative responsibility by the state understand the problems of public administration. In approaching the given subject I have chosen to use some of the methods of scientific research, respectively: the historical method (financial science being presented succinct through the process of its evolution along the years, interpretation methods and a combination of quality and quantity approach, namely the method of analyzing archive documents and the studies of professor Gheorghe N. Leon. In these contexts have asserted and developed himself in the university and political environment, Gheorghe N. Leon, having a rich activity of intellectual creation, approaching in his works the complex aspects of the science of financial law. Thus, starting with the rules and principles of this domain, Gheorghe N. Leon had realized a veritable incursion in the history of finances and in the theory of taxation, public and budgetary credit. Analyzing a part of his scientific works, we can affirm that a personality with such a complex structure, like Gheorghe N. Leon is hard to define, but surely, through the prism of his works and through his long-lasting and rich scientific activity, his name can be mentioned among the
James A. Schaefer
Full Text Available Random environmental influences, such as snow cover, are widely regarded as an integral feature of caribou population dynamics. We conducted computer simulations to explore the ramifications of such stochastic variability for caribou demography. We devised 4 models with increasing levels of complexity: Model 1, density-independence under different levels of stochasticity and r; Model 2, non-linear effect of snow cover on r; Model 3, non-linear effect of snow cover on r and stochasticity as a function of population size; and Model 4, non-linear effect of snow cover on r, stochasticity as a funciton of population size, and density-dependence according to the logistic equation. The results of Model 1 indicated that nearly all caribou populations subject only to environmental vagaries experienced either extincition or irruption. Model 2 revealed that non-linear effect of snow cover depressed the realised r as a function of population size. Finally, Model 4 suggested long-term population as previously reported in literature, but with reduced chance of overshooting K under moderate to high environmental variability.
Hattemer-Frey, H.A.; Quinlan, R.E.; Krieger, G.R.; Lau, V.
Inconsistencies in the exposure assessment process often arise when risk assessors are forced to make assumptions about the frequency and duration of exposures in the absence of site-specific data. EPA encourages the collection of site-specific data so that risks can be more accurately assessed on a case-by-case basis. Typically, estimates of exposure frequency and duration represent the largest source of uncertainty for non-food related exposure pathways, while the largest source of uncertainty for foodchain pathways stems primarily from estimating the fraction ingested that originated from the affected area. A Land Use and Demography Survey was conducted to obtain site-specific information on: (1) the amount of time individuals spend indoors, outdoors, and on or near affected areas; (2) recreational use of surface water bodies on-site; (3) the percentage of food items consumed that were raised or produced locally; and (4) other behavioral patterns and activities that could influence their exposure to site-related chemicals. More than 300 households were randomly selected and the residents personally interviewed. A wide variety of individuals ranging from children to elderly residents with vastly different recreational, behavioral, and consumption patterns were interviewed. This paper discusses the survey results in relation to EPA standard default exposure assumptions
Bachrach, Christine A.
Demography and culture have had a long but ambivalent relationship. Cultural influences are widely recognized as important for demographic outcomes, but are often “backgrounded” in demographic research. I argue that progress towards a more successful integration is feasible and suggest a network model of culture as a potential tool. The network model bridges both traditional (holistic and institutional) and contemporary (tool kit) models of culture used in the social sciences and offers a simple vocabulary for the diverse set of cultural concepts such as attitudes, beliefs and norms, and quantitative measures of how culture is organized. The proposed model conceptualizes culture as a nested network of meanings which are represented by schemas that range in complexity from simple concepts to multifaceted cultural models. I illustrate the potential value of a model using accounts of the cultural changes underpinning the transformation of marriage in the U.S. and point to developments in the social, cognitive and computational sciences that could facilitate the application of the model in empirical demographic research. PMID:24338643
Stajich, Jason E; Hahn, Matthew W
Demographic events affect all genes in a genome, whereas natural selection has only local effects. Using publicly available data from 151 loci sequenced in both European-American and African-American populations, we attempt to distinguish the effects of demography and selection. To analyze large sets of population genetic data such as this one, we introduce "Perlymorphism," a Unix-based suite of analysis tools. Our analyses show that the demographic histories of human populations can account for a large proportion of effects on the level and frequency of variation across the genome. The African-American population shows both a higher level of nucleotide diversity and more negative values of Tajima's D statistic than does a European-American population. Using coalescent simulations, we show that the significantly negative values of the D statistic in African-Americans and the positive values in European-Americans are well explained by relatively simple models of population admixture and bottleneck, respectively. Working within these nonequilibrium frameworks, we are still able to show deviations from neutral expectations at a number of loci, including ABO and TRPV6. In addition, we show that the frequency spectrum of mutations--corrected for levels of polymorphism--is correlated with recombination rate only in European-Americans. These results are consistent with repeated selective sweeps in non-African populations, in agreement with recent reports using microsatellite data.
Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Plotkin, Joshua B
While the wealth of projection matrices in plant demography permits comparative studies, variation in matrix dimensions complicates interspecific comparisons. Collapsing matrices to a common dimension may facilitate such comparisons but may also bias the inferred demographic parameters. Here we examine how matrix dimension affects inferred demographic elasticities and how different collapsing criteria perform. We analyzed 13 x 13 matrices representing nine plant species, collapsing these matrices (i) into even 7 x 7, 5 x 5, 4 x 4, and 3 x 3 matrices and (ii) into 5 x 5 matrices using different criteria. Stasis and fecundity elasticities increased when matrix dimension was reduced, whereas those of progression and retrogression decreased. We suggest a collapsing criterion that minimizes dissimilarities between the original- and collapsed-matrix elasticities and apply it to 66 plant species to study how life span and growth form influence the relationship between matrix dimension and elasticities. Our analysis demonstrates that (i) projection matrix dimension has significant effects on inferred demographic parameters, (ii) there are better-performing methods than previously suggested for standardizing matrix dimension, and (iii) herbaceous perennial projection matrices are particularly sensitive to changes in matrix dimensionality. For comparative demographic studies, we recommend normalizing matrices to a common dimension by collapsing higher classes and leaving the first few classes unaltered.
Winter, C. J.
The current state of the science and technology of hydrogen energy utilization was outlined with a view to illustrate that the time has arrived for a full scale multi-disciplinary effort, including entrepreneurs, bankers, economists, investment experts, as well as technical experts. This paper has two objectives: (1) to outline the reasons why the time is now to press this attack, and (2) to announce plans for a major hydrogen conference in Munich in the year 2000 as part of EXPO 2000. For this event, one of the wings of the new Munich Two Airport will be the site of a complete LH 2 infrastructure with hydrogen buses, hydrogen vehicles, and a fully automated LH 2 filling station. Demonstration of a prototype LH 2 demonstrator aircraft, named the CRYOPLANE, is also expected. In a similar development, the Bavarian city of Brueckenau is now in the process of preparing for the conversion of its public transport to hydrogen, the installation of fuel cells in private homes for the simultaneous delivery of electricity and heat, as well as for the installation of fuel cells as combined heat power blocks for electricity and district heating. The long lead-time necessary for the acceptance of a new energy source was illustrated by pointing out that the first nuclear chain reaction was initiated in 1938; sixty years later, nuclear fission stands for only six per cent of primary energy production worldwide
Walker, Mary Ellen; Anonson, June; Szafron, Michael
The relationship between political environment and health services accessibility (HSA) has not been the focus of any specific studies. The purpose of this study was to address this gap in the literature by examining the relationship between political environment and HSA. This relationship that HSA indicators (physicians, nurses and hospital beds per 10 000 people) has with political environment was analyzed with multiple least-squares regression using the components of democracy (electoral processes and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The components of democracy were represented by the 2011 Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index (EIUDI) sub-scores. The EIUDI sub-scores and the HSA indicators were evaluated for significant relationships with multiple least-squares regression. While controlling for a country's geographic location and level of democracy, we found that two components of a nation's political environment: functioning of government and political participation, and their interaction had significant relationships with the three HSA indicators. These study findings are of significance to health professionals because they examine the political contexts in which citizens access health services, they come from research that is the first of its kind, and they help explain the effect political environment has on health. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org.
Full Text Available I met Franco Modigliani in 1948. We had common interests in three fields of economic theory--Keynes and unemployment, the relations between monetary and real phenomena and market forms and price formation. We had in common also the love for empirical verification and, on another plane, civil commitment. Intellectually we met on the question of price formation and variations in oligopoly, which can be considered as the most common market form in modern economies. Modigliani embodied the formula expressing price formation and variations under oligopoly in two econometric model, the former worked out in the United States, the other in Italy. The paper discusses similarities and differences between our views on these matters. Recently Modigliani promoted a "Manifesto on Unemployment in the European Union", written by six economists, including myself. In it an important role is plaid by the investment, function, conceived by Modigliani and by myself in different though complementary ways ad by the model of price variations, viewed from the point of view of inflation.
Kostiantyn S. Khoruzhyi
Full Text Available In the article, the content and nature of organizational activities in scope of methodological and technological support of the education quality management information system (EQMIS for future economists are described. The content of the organizational activities for the implementation of methodological and technological support of EQMIS for future economists includes four stages (preparatory, instructional/adaptational, methodological/basic, as well as experimental/evaluational and contains a set of methodological and technological measures for each of the stages of the EQMIS implementation. A study of the pedagogical impact of the proposed methodology of using EQMIS in the formation of professional competence of economics students was also conducted. The main stages, methods and sequence of implementation arrangements for the methodological and technological support of EQMIS are defined.
This two-day conference, organized by The Economist, focused on R and D productivity, strategic and innovative methodologies, M and A activities and knowledge management within the pharmaceutical industry. Key speakers within the industry addressed these issues to an audience of approximately 100 healthcare business executives. The first day was chaired by Barrie Haigh (Quintiles Translational Corp) and the second day by Tobias Rooney (Gemini Consulting).
Since recent financial crises in Asia and Latin America, developing countries have been strongly advised to rely primarily on foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to promote economic development on a sustainable basis. Even harsh critics of rash capital account liberalization argue in favor of opening up towards FDI. Yet, economists know surprisingly little about the driving forces and the economic effects of FDI. There are few undisputed insights on which policymakers can rely. Globaliza...
Prugh, L.; Verbyla, D.; van de Kerk, M.; Mahoney, P.; Sivy, K. J.; Liston, G. E.; Nolin, A. W.
Snow enshrouds up to one third of the global land mass annually and exerts a major influence on animals that reside in these "snowscapes," (landscapes covered in snow). Dynamic snowscapes may have especially strong effects in arctic and boreal regions where dry snow persists for much of the year. Changes in temperature and hydrology are transforming northern regions, with profound implications for wildlife that are not well understood. We report initial findings from a NASA ABoVE project examining effects of snow properties on Dall sheep (Ovis dalli dalli). We used the MODSCAG snow fraction product to map spring snowline elevations and snow-off dates from 2000-2015 throughout the global range of Dall sheep in Alaska and northwestern Canada. We found a negative effect of spring snow cover on Dall sheep recruitment that increased with latitude. Using meteorological data and a daily freeze/thaw status product derived from passive microwave remote sensing from 1983-2012, we found that sheep survival rates increased in years with higher temperatures, less winter precipitation, fewer spring freeze-thaw events, and more winter freeze-thaw events. To examine the effects of snow depth and density on sheep movements, we used location data from GPS-collared sheep and a snowpack evolution model (SnowModel). We found that sheep selected for shallow, fluffy snow at high elevations, but they selected for denser snow as depth increased. Our field measurements identified a critical snow density threshold of 329 (± 18 SE) kg/m3 to support the weight of Dall sheep. Thus, sheep may require areas of shallow, fluffy snow for foraging, while relying on hard-packed snow for winter travel. These findings highlight the importance of multiple snowscape properties on wildlife movements and demography. The integrated study of snow properties and ecological processes, which we call snowscape ecology, will greatly improve global change forecasting.
Krapf, Sandra; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Wolf, Katharina
Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America, has been given the highest rating among demographic journals by the Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI). Our aim here is to investigate the development of research subfields and female authorship in Demography over the last 50 years. We find that female authorship in Demography has risen considerably since the 1980s and that currently a woman is about as likely as a man to be the sole or the first author of a paper published in the journal. However, we find some differences by subfield. Women seem to be overrepresented in the "family and household" research subfield but underrepresented in the "mortality and health" and "data and methods" categories.
Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R; Archer, C Ruth; Bein, Christoph; de Buhr, Hendrik; Farack, Claudia; Gottschalk, Fränce; Hartmann, Alexander; Henning, Anne; Hoppe, Gabriel; Römer, Gesa; Ruoff, Tara; Sommer, Veronika; Wille, Julia; Voigt, Jakob; Zeh, Stefan; Vieregg, Dirk; Buckley, Yvonne M; Che-Castaldo, Judy; Hodgson, David; Scheuerlein, Alexander; Caswell, Hal; Vaupel, James W
The open-data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open-data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world-wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction. Matrix population models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, an open-data online repository, which in its version 1.0.0 contains data on 345 species world-wide, from 402 studies with a total of 1625 population projection matrices. COMADRE also contains ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, taxonomy, biogeography, etc.) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from its MPMs. We provide R code to some of these examples. We introduce the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database, a resource for animal demography. Its open-data nature, together with its ancillary information, will facilitate comparative analysis, as will the growing availability of databases focusing on other aspects of the rich animal diversity, and tools to query and combine them. Through future frequent updates of COMADRE, and
Wood, Lisa [Inst. for Electric Innovation and The Edison Foundation, Washington DC (United States); Hemphill, Ross [RCHemphill Solutions, Columbus, OH (United States); Howat, John [National Consumer Law Center, Boston, MA (United States); Cavanagh, Ralph [Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, NY (United States); Borenstein, Severin [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Deason, Jeff [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Lisa [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Schwartz, Lisa [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Utilities recover costs for providing electric service to retail customers through a combination of rate components that together comprise customers’ monthly electric bills. Rates and rate designs are set by state regulators and vary by jurisdiction, utility and customer class. In addition to the fundamental tenet of setting fair and reasonable rates, rate design balances economic efficiency, equity and fairness, customer satisfaction, utility revenue stability, and customer price and bill stability.1 At the most basic level, retail electricity bills in the United States typically include a fixed monthly customer charge — a set dollar amount regardless of energy usage — and a volumetric energy charge for each kilowatt-hour consumed.2 The energy charge may be flat across all hours, vary by usage level (for example, higher rates at higher levels of usage), or vary based on time of consumption.3 While some utility costs, such as fuel costs, clearly vary according to electricity usage, other costs are “fixed” over the short run — generally, those that do not vary over the course of a year. Depending on your point of view, and whether the state’s electricity industry has been restructured or remains vertically integrated, the set of costs that are “fixed” may be quite limited. Or the set may extend to all capacity costs for generation, transmission and distribution. In the long run, all costs are variable. In the context of flat or declining loads in some regions, utilities are proposing a variety of changes to retail rate designs, particularly for residential customers, to recover fixed costs. In this report, authors representing utility (Chapter 1), consumer (Chapter 2), environmentalist (Chapter 3) and economist (Chapter 4) perspectives discuss fixed costs for electric utilities and set out their principles for recovering those costs. The table on the next page summarizes each author’s relative preferences for various options for fixed cost
Tests of the neutral evolution hypothesis are usually built on the standard model which assumes that mutations are neutral and the population size remains constant over time. However, it is unclear how such tests are affected if the last assumption is dropped. Here, we extend the unifying framework for tests based on the site frequency spectrum, introduced by Achaz and Ferretti, to populations of varying size. Key ingredients are the first two moments of the site frequency spectrum. We show how these moments can be computed analytically if a population has experienced two instantaneous size changes in the past. We apply our method to data from ten human populations gathered in the 1000 genomes project, estimate their demographies and define demography-adjusted versions of Tajima\\'s D, Fay & Wu\\'s H, and Zeng\\'s E. Our results show that demography-adjusted test statistics facilitate the direct comparison between populations and that most of the differences among populations seen in the original unadjusted tests can be explained by their underlying demographies. Upon carrying out whole-genome screens for deviations from neutrality, we identify candidate regions of recent positive selection. We provide track files with values of the adjusted and unadjusted tests for upload to the UCSC genome browser. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.
Lunn, Nicholas J.; Regher, Eric V; Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Richardson, Evan S.; Stirling, Ian
We evaluated the demography and population status of the Western Hudson Bay (WH) polar bear subpopulation for the period 1984-2011, using live-recapture data from research studies and management actions, and dead-recovery data from polar bears harvested for subsistence purposes or removed during human-bear conflicts.
John F. Lehmkuhl; Keith D. Kistler; James S. Begley; John. Boulanger
We studied northern flying squirrel (Glaucomys sabrinus) demography in the eastern Washington Cascade Range to test hypotheses about regional and local abundance patterns and to inform managers of the possible effects of fire and fuels management on flying squirrels. We quantified habitat characteristics and squirrel density, population trends, and...
Van Dijck, Maarten
Sociologists and historians of science, such as Richard Whitley and Stephen Hilgartner, identified a culturally dominant discourse of science popularization in the broader society. In this dominant view, a clear distinction is maintained between scientific knowledge and popularized knowledge. Popularization of science is seen as the process of transmitting real science to a lay public. This discourse on science popularization was criticized by Whitley and Hilgartner as an inadequate simplification. Yet, the battered traditional model of popularization remains remarkably resistant to these theoretical attacks. In this paper I will argue, based on research of the output of the Belgian economist Gustave de Molinari (1819-1912), and more specifically, his opinion on the role of government in economic life, that the boundary between science and popularization in political economy is not clear and that the status of scientists fluctuates over time and in different contexts. It is therefore impossible for historians or economists to distinguish science from popularization based on the essential characteristics or intrinsic quality of the work. De Molinari's ideas are followed through the different media of science and journalism. Although de Molinari himself differentiated between his scientific and "popular" work, the boundary between science and popularization proves to be highly permeable, in both directions.
Full Text Available Este artículo trata del lugar de Roma-Bizancio en los textos apocalípticos judíos de la Antigüedad Tardía tales como el Sefer Zorobabel, el Sefer Eliyahu o las Nistarot del Rabbi Simeón ben Yohai, así como también la exégesis caraíta del libro de Daniel. Estos textos reflejan la interpretación escatológica judía de los acontecimientos contemporáneos desde el siglo III en adelante, tales como la crisis del Imperio romano, la ocupación persa de Palestina y la invasión musulmana.This article deals with the place of Rome-Byzantium in Late AAntique Jewish Apocalyptic texts such as the Sefer Zerubabbel, the Sefer Eliyahu and the Nistarot of Rabbi Simeon ben Yohai and, also, the karaite exegesis of the Book of Daniel. These texts reflect eschatological jewish interpretation of contemporary events from the 3rd century onwards, like the crisis of the Roman Empire, the Persian occupation of the Land of Israel and the Muslim invasion.
Full Text Available The article provides a general overview of the objectives and methods of research regarding a collective topic covered in the research plan of the Department of Economics in 2013, for which the authors have performed the activity on scientific instruments. Providing quality educational services by higher economic education in Romania, involves correlation of structures and contents of curricula with employers requirements, such that graduates integrate faster on an imperfect and dynamic labor market. We therefore considered useful the submission for publication of the methodology on marketing research based on this research theme, for giving the opportunity to other specialists the opportunity to transmit improvement suggestions and to develop future partnership, in the purpose of extending the scope of this study. The research aims to identify the competencies, skills and attitudes of future employee economists and design a trialogue learning model which leads to the formation and development of these demands of employers.
Ángel Felices Lago
Full Text Available In this paper we intend to map out some of the dominant values in print advertisements announcing different types of environmentally friendly products and services from energy (oil, electricity, etc. and heavy industry corporations. We will analyse the qualities and values explicitly linked to ecological samples through metaphors, metonymies and image schemas and the way in which they are introduced in advertising
discourse. To this end, we have selected a corpus of sample advertisements published in 12 editions of The Economist, a well-known, prestigious business magazine. The Lakoffian semantics analysis will be used in order to give us a more reliable estimate of values and metaphorical processes linked to environmental topics as well as an account of the cognitive and discursive means used to denote them.
The author, an economist, rebuts the contention that human life cannot and should not be economically evaluated and argues that such evaluations are made implicitly and inconsistently, resulting in a reduction of human welfare. He presents an economic framework for the analysis of costs and benefits in which the focal point, as in most value systems, is the tradeoff between life and quality of life. Therefore, as the quality of life decreases, society's efforts to preserve life should decrease. If the valuation of life includes self evaluation, then there should be less effort to preserve the life of an individual who wishes to die. Richardson concludes that voluntary euthanasia is a limiting case in which society accepts the individual's valuation of life.
Galyna A. Kovalchuk
Full Text Available The article covers the materials of the thematic study of the possibilities of electronic services for the implementation of the narrative approach in the professional training of students - future economists, the formation of their adaptive competence, the development of self-regulation skills and self-management in the learning process. The possibilities of electronic services for the formation of adaptive competence of future specialists are shown. Different features of the educational narrative are described. There have been presented the examples of simulation of digital educational professional stories in comics which realize a combination of academic activity and creative activity of participants of the educational process for their professional development. The example of tasks for independent work of students on socio-economic disciplines demonstrated the use of the didactic method "History in Pictures" a generalization of self-examination of students on the results of their narrative training.
There is a danger that the history of health economics in Britain comes to be regarded as roughly co-terminous with the history of the Health Economists' Study Group (HESG). As one of the founders of that Group, I would take some pride from that, if it were true. But it is not. Just as primitive human societies existed before recorded history, so there was primeval health economics in Britain prior to 1972. There is probably more of this primeval health economics than even I know about, but as one of the ancient relics of that period I have been offered the opportunity to reminisce about what I saw during those dark ages! When one reaches the advanced age of 70, there is no escaping the fact that your past is bound to be more extensive (and probably more enjoyable) than your future, which is why the old enjoy looking back more than they enjoy looking forward! I am no exception. Hence this essay, which may either be seen as a rather self-indulgent bout of nostalgia concerning the early days of health economics in Britain, or as an archaeological enterprise, exhibiting, for all to wonder at, the treasures to be found at carefully selected ancient (i.e., pre-HESG) sites in Britain. Either way, my purpose is to suggest that most of the fundamental issues with which health economists have grappled in the last 25 years had already been identified and addressed in a careful way during the decade preceding the formation of the HESG.
Winston, Mark L; Dropkin, Jennifer A; Taylor, Orley R
Intra-colony demography and life history characteristics of neotropical Africanized and temperate European honey bearaces were compared under simulated feral conditions. Major differences in colony demography were found which nevertheless resulted in some similar reproductive characteristics. European colonies were larger than Africanized colonies, had more rapid initral growth rates of worker populations, showed better survivorship of brood and adult workers, and differed in patterns of worker age distribution. However, both races were similar in the brood and adult populations when colonies swarmed, the frequency and timing of swarming, and the number of workers in prime swarms. The factors most important in determining these colony growth and reproductive patterns were likely worker mortality rates, climate, and resource availability.
Christopher H Myers
Full Text Available This study is a brief social biography and demography of British naval doctors during the nineteenth century, asking why Scottish-educated surgeons were so prominent. Understanding the demography and changing dynamics of naval surgeons’ labor illuminates the complex relationship among the military, discrimination, and nationalism that shaped this influential labor market. This study reviews how to collect demographic information from multiple types of sources: university archives, matriculation records, digitized medical journals, and student rolls. It also uses chi-square tests to show the significance of the demographic information collected. The results show us the entangled relationship between database conceptualization, data collection, and data analysis.
Steiner-Khamsi, Gita; Appleton, Margaret; Vellani, Shezleen
The media analysis is situated in the larger body of studies that explore the varied reasons why different policy actors advocate for international large-scale student assessments (ILSAs) and adds to the research on the fast advance of the global education industry. The analysis of "The Economist," "Financial Times," and…
Maria V. Grineva
Full Text Available Nowadays the growing professional orientation of all the aspects of foreign language teaching is widely recognized as one of the major trends in the process of enhancing foreign languages curriculum at higher education institutions which specialize in training non-linguistic students majoring in various fields of international relations. Professionally oriented foreign language teaching implies using the foreign language classroom as a source of forming a wide range of professionally meaningful competences (both linguistic and non-linguistic of would-be specialists along with developing their sense of professional identity. Despite the fact that professional identity - usually interpreted as individuals' perception of themselves as members of a certain profession - is the culmination of a long process of professional development, its cultivation with future specialists should be seen as a priority as early as at a higher education level - a college or university. Referring to psychological research, the author states that emotional factors play a decisive role in shaping professional identity at early stages of a person's professional development. It reveals the importance of analyzing the potential of literary texts in a foreign language in terms of their ability to contribute to developing prospective specialists' professional identity, as such texts represent a valuable text material which provokes readers' powerful emotional response and thus triggers empathy. The novel "The Firm" byJ. Grisham and "The Headhunter" byj. Mead were selected by the author for the home reading classroom with would-be economists, as coupled with a competence-based learning aid they allow teachers to create a unique discourse, which facilitates the process of developing students' professional competences and their professional identity. Along with their clear professional content, they appeal to students, as the problems raised in them are relevant to those of
Mumby, Hannah S; Mar, Khyne U; Thitaram, Chatchote; Courtiol, Alexandre; Towiboon, Patcharapa; Min-Oo, Zaw; Htut-Aung, Ye; Brown, Janine L; Lummaa, Virpi
Establishing links between ecological variation, physiological markers of stress and demography is crucial for understanding how and why changes in environmental conditions affect population dynamics, and may also play a key role for conservation efforts of endangered species. However, detailed longitudinal studies of long-lived species are rarely available. We test how two markers of stress and body condition vary through the year and are associated with climatic conditions and large-scale mortality and fertility variation in the world's largest semi-captive population of Asian elephants employed in the timber industry in Myanmar. Glucocorticoid metabolites (used as a proxy for stress levels in 75 elephants) and body weight (used as a proxy for condition in 116 elephants) were monitored monthly across a typical monsoon cycle and compared with birth and death patterns of the entire elephant population over half a century (n = 2350). Our results show seasonal variation in both markers of stress and condition. In addition, this variation is correlated with population-level demographic variables. Weight is inversely correlated with population mortality rates 1 month later, and glucocorticoid metabolites are negatively associated with birth rates. Weight shows a highly positive correlation with rainfall 1 month earlier. Determining the factors associated with demography may be key to species conservation by providing information about the correlates of mortality and fertility patterns. The unsustainability of the studied captive population has meant that wild elephants have been captured and tamed for work. By elucidating the correlates of demography in captive elephants, our results offer management solutions that could reduce the pressure on the wild elephant population in Myanmar.
Full Text Available Inbreeding has long been recognized as a primary cause of fitness reduction in both wild and domesticated populations. Consanguineous matings cause inheritance of haplotypes that are identical by descent (IBD and result in homozygous stretches along the genome of the offspring. Size and position of regions of homozygosity (ROHs are expected to correlate with genomic features such as GC content and recombination rate, but also direction of selection. Thus, ROHs should be non-randomly distributed across the genome. Therefore, demographic history may not fully predict the effects of inbreeding. The porcine genome has a relatively heterogeneous distribution of recombination rate, making Sus scrofa an excellent model to study the influence of both recombination landscape and demography on genomic variation. This study utilizes next-generation sequencing data for the analysis of genomic ROH patterns, using a comparative sliding window approach. We present an in-depth study of genomic variation based on three different parameters: nucleotide diversity outside ROHs, the number of ROHs in the genome, and the average ROH size. We identified an abundance of ROHs in all genomes of multiple pigs from commercial breeds and wild populations from Eurasia. Size and number of ROHs are in agreement with known demography of the populations, with population bottlenecks highly increasing ROH occurrence. Nucleotide diversity outside ROHs is high in populations derived from a large ancient population, regardless of current population size. In addition, we show an unequal genomic ROH distribution, with strong correlations of ROH size and abundance with recombination rate and GC content. Global gene content does not correlate with ROH frequency, but some ROH hotspots do contain positive selected genes in commercial lines and wild populations. This study highlights the importance of the influence of demography and recombination on homozygosity in the genome to understand
Franzkowiak, Matthias [Arbeitsmedizin Rheinisches Revier, RWE Power AG, Bergheim (Germany); Schmitz, Michael [Personalcontrolling/-strategie, RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany); Feldhaus, Christian [Arbeitsmedizin/Betriebliches Gesundheitsmanagement, RWE Power AG, Essen (Germany)
RWE Power has launched a comprehensive process to develop strategies for future demography management. A special focus is on the challenges which result from the age structure of the workforce in connection with alternating shift work. A comprehensive catalogue of measures was developed which is currently being implemented. Among other things, it includes programmes for the employees on issues like health and ergonomics or optimisation of existing shift systems. Several follow-up projects are also included. The measures presented in this paper are meant to help in responding proactively to future demographic trends and the resulting challenges. (orig.)
Schmidt, Benedikt R
The evidence for amphibian population declines is based on count data that were not adjusted for detection probabilities. Such data are not reliable even when collected using standard methods. The formula C = Np (where C is a count, N the true parameter value, and p is a detection probability) relates count data to demography, population size, or distributions. With unadjusted count data, one assumes a linear relationship between C and N and that p is constant. These assumptions are unlikely to be met in studies of amphibian populations. Amphibian population data should be based on methods that account for detection probabilities.
To understand the issues raised by the recent global crisis, IMF organized a conference on March 7-8, 2011, around six themes: monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial intermediation and regulation, capital account management, growth strategies, and the international monetary system. The conference proceedings are published in a book, In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy. This review presents a summary of the book and provides its implications for research a...
Full Text Available This article presents a qualitative study of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group’s (further - Shell corporate image building in relation to climate change and how this image is represented in the British financial press. The material of the study involves the official 2014 Shell’s annual report (further - AR and online coverages of Shell’s climate change-related activities by the leading British financial newspapers, The Economist and The Financial Times (further – The FT. Shell’s image of climate change is investigated by means of identification of conceptual metaphors viewed through the lenses of the methodological apparatus of cognitive linguistics. Conceptual metaphors identified in the 2014 AR are subsequently juxtaposed with conceptual metaphors associated with Shell’s climate-change activities in The Economist and in The FT. The results reveal that Shell’s 2014 AR involves the following conceptual metaphors associated with climate change: ‘Climate Change as a Journey’, ‘Climate Change as a Battle’, ‘Shell as a Responsible Citizen’, ‘Shell as a Caring Corporation’, ‘Climate Change as Growth’, and ‘Climate Change as Money’. In contrast with these conceptual metaphors, The Economist represents Shell’s climate change activities in 2014 via ‘Shell as an Immoral Corporation’ and ‘Shell as a Sinner’. The FT frames Shell’s climate change agenda in 2014 by means of conceptual metaphors ‘Climate Change as Growth’, ‘Climate Change as a Journey’, and ‘Climate Change as Money’ respectively. The discrepancies between Shell’s self-image of climate change and its representations by The Economist and The FT are further presented and discussed in the article.
Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Werne, J. P.; Arkush, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Ferland, T.; Holmes, E.; Puhnaty, C.; Woods, A.
The relationship between variations in hydroclimate and human demography on the Peruvian Altiplano has significant implications for understanding how people in the past have adapted to changes in freshwater resources. To investigate these human-environmental interactions, this project presents a 2,000 year sediment record from Laguna Arapa, a large lake that is Titicaca. Using sedimentology and stratigraphy as well as a suite of organic geochemical proxies including fecal 5β-stanols and leaf waxes (long chain n-alkanoic acids), we aim to tie together proxies of human population with indicators of regional hydroclimate. Preliminary results of sedimentology and stratigraphy show notable transitions from sand to silt to clay, suggesting rising lake level sequences at 500 and 700 AD. The last 1,300 years of sediment are characterized by alternating layers of organic rich material with abundant charcoal and black inorganic clay, suggesting intermittent periods of aridity and/or anthropogenic fire-setting. These layers are particularly frequent during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, which was characterized by dry and warm conditions. These results agree well with other records of hydroclimate from regional lakes as well as accumulation rate and temperature from the Quelccaya ice cap. Organic geochemical work is currently in progress and shows promise for linking together proxies of human demography with hydroclimate to understand the relationship between human settlement and climate change.
Brown, Jeremy M; Savidge, Kevin; McTavish, Emily Jane B
An increasing number of studies seek to infer demographic history, often jointly with genetic relationships. Despite numerous analytical methods for such data, few simulations have investigated the methods' power and robustness, especially when underlying assumptions have been violated. DIM SUM (Demography and Individual Migration Simulated Using a Markov chain) is a stand-alone Java program for the simulation of population demography and individual migration while recording ancestor-descendant relationships. It does not employ coalescent assumptions or discrete population boundaries. It is extremely flexible, allowing the user to specify border positions, reactions of organisms to borders, local and global carrying capacities, individual dispersal kernels, rates of reproduction and strategies for sampling individuals. Spatial variables may be specified using image files (e.g., as exported from gis software) and may vary through time. In combination with software for genetic marker simulation, DIM SUM will be useful for testing phylogeographic (e.g., nested clade phylogeographic analysis, coalescent-based tests and continuous-landscape frameworks) and landscape-genetic methods, specifically regarding violations of coalescent assumptions. It can also be used to explore the qualitative features of proposed demographic scenarios (e.g. regarding biological invasions) and as a pedagogical tool. DIM SUM (with user's manual) can be downloaded from http://code.google.com/p/bio-dimsum. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Where connections between demography and politics are examined in the literature, it is largely in the context of the effects of male aspects of demography on phenomena such as political violence. This project aims to place the study of demographic variables' influence on politics, particularly on democracy, squarely within the scope of political and social sciences, and to focus on the effects of woman-related demographics-namely, fertility rate. I test the hypothesis that demographic variables-female-related predictors, in particular-have an independent effect on political structure. Comparing countries over time, this study finds a growth in democracy when fertility rates decline. In the theoretical framework developed, it is family structure as well as the economic and political status of women that account for this change at the macro and micro levels. Findings based on data for more than 140 countries over three decades are robust when controlling not only for alternative effects but also for reverse causality and data limitations.
In this paper I propose that evolutionary demography and associated theory from human behavioral ecology provide a strong basis for explaining the available evidence for the patterns observed in the first agricultural settlement of Europe in the 7th-5th millennium cal. BC, linking together a variety of what have previously been disconnected observations and casting doubt on some long-standing existing models. An outline of relevant aspects of life history theory, which provides the foundation for understanding demography, is followed by a review of large-scale demographic patterns in the early Neolithic, which point to rapid population increase and a process of demic diffusion. More localized socioeconomic and demographic patterns suggesting rapid expansion to local carrying capacities and an associated growth of inequality in the earliest farming communities of central Europe (the Linear Pottery Culture, or LBK) are then outlined and shown to correspond to predictions of spatial population ecology and reproductive skew theory. Existing models of why it took so long for farming to spread to northern and northwest Europe, which explain the spread in terms of the gradual disruption of hunter-gatherer ways of life, are then questioned in light of evidence for population collapse at the end of the LBK. Finally, some broader implications of the study are presented, including the suggestion that the pattern of an initial agricultural boom followed by a bust may be relevant in other parts of the world.
Laman Trip, Elizabeth; Raubenheimer, David; Clements, Kendall D.; Choat, John Howard
A common view is that, in marine fishes, herbivory and sex change are subject to physiological constraints at high latitudes, which are likely to affect growth rates and reproductive outputs. The present study examines the reproductive demography of Odax pullus, an herbivorous and protogynous species of temperate New Zealand. We establish an otolith-based methodology for age estimation and investigate sex-specific growth, longevity and age-based reproductive events. Individuals achieved a maximum age of 11 years, reached 85% of adult body size (455mm FL) within the first 3.5 years of life, were sexually mature by the age of 1.11.5 years and changed sex at 2.83.5 years, indicating fast simultaneous somatic and reproductive growth. There was no significant difference in growth or body size between the sexes. Ovary weight of spawning females increased significantly with size and age, suggesting the presence of size- and age-fecundity skews underlying the absence of sex change in larger and older females. Testes of reproductively active males comprised less than 1% of bodyweight, suggesting pair-spawning and little sperm competition. The present study provides metrics to support comparisons of the demography of this temperate protogynous and herbivorous labrid across spatial or temporal strata. © CSIRO 2011.
Laman Trip, Elizabeth
A common view is that, in marine fishes, herbivory and sex change are subject to physiological constraints at high latitudes, which are likely to affect growth rates and reproductive outputs. The present study examines the reproductive demography of Odax pullus, an herbivorous and protogynous species of temperate New Zealand. We establish an otolith-based methodology for age estimation and investigate sex-specific growth, longevity and age-based reproductive events. Individuals achieved a maximum age of 11 years, reached 85% of adult body size (455mm FL) within the first 3.5 years of life, were sexually mature by the age of 1.11.5 years and changed sex at 2.83.5 years, indicating fast simultaneous somatic and reproductive growth. There was no significant difference in growth or body size between the sexes. Ovary weight of spawning females increased significantly with size and age, suggesting the presence of size- and age-fecundity skews underlying the absence of sex change in larger and older females. Testes of reproductively active males comprised less than 1% of bodyweight, suggesting pair-spawning and little sperm competition. The present study provides metrics to support comparisons of the demography of this temperate protogynous and herbivorous labrid across spatial or temporal strata. © CSIRO 2011.
Burger, F; Walgenbach, M; Göbel, P; Parbs, S; Neugebauer, E
Background: We investigated and evaluated the cost effectiveness of coding by health care economists in a centre for orthopaedics and trauma surgery in Germany, by quantifying and comparing the financial efficiency of physicians with basic knowledge of the DRG-system with the results of healthcare economists with in-depth knowledge (M.Sc.). In addition, a hospital survey was performed to establish how DRG-coding is being performed and the identity of the persons involved. Material and Methods: In a prospective and controlled study, 200 in-patients were coded by a healthcare economist (study group). Prior to that, the same cases were coded by physicians with basic training in the DRG-system, who made up the control group. All cases were picked randomly and blinded without informing the physicians coding the controls, in order to avoid any Hawthorne effect. We evaluated and measured the effective weighting within the G-DRG, the DRG returns per patient, the overall DRG return, and the additional time needed. For the survey, questionnaires were sent to 1200 German hospitals. The completed questionnaire was analysed using a statistical program. Results: The return difference per patient between controls and the study group was significantly greater (2472 ± 337 €; p DRG case reports was 1277 (2500-62,300). Coding was performed in 69 % of cases by doctors, 19 % by skilled specialists for DRG coding and in 8 % together. Overall satisfaction with the DRG was described by 61 % of respondents as good or excellent. Conclusion: Our prospective and controlled study quantifies the cost efficiency of health economists in a centre of orthopaedics and trauma surgery in Germany for the first time. We provide some initial evidence that health economists can enhance the CMI, the resulting DRG return per patient as well as the overall DRG return. Data from the survey shows that in many hospitals there is great reluctance to leave the coding to specialists only. Georg
This book is an undergraduate text that introduces students to commonly-used statistical methods in economics. Using examples based on contemporary economic issues and readily-available data, it not only explains the mechanics of the various methods, it also guides students to connect statistical results to detailed economic interpretations. Because the goal is for students to be able to apply the statistical methods presented, online sources for economic data and directions for performing each task in Excel are also included.
Jenkins, G [ed.
This handbook lists statistics on energy resources, production and consumption; petroleum refining, products, storage, quality and prices; shipping; pipelines; and energy companies. Conversion factors, a dictionary of terms, and a chronology of major events (1919-1938) are included. The data given runs up to 1982/83.
Thomas, Alex M
This paper revisits the writings of the philosopher of science, Paul Feyerabend, in order to argue for pluralism in economics education. In particular, the benefits of pluralism, the role of science and the notion of scientific rationality are examined from the perspective of economics.
Orthodox economics focuses on the analysis of the way the economic force or motivation operates, thereby abstracting from the functioning of other primary forces or motivations, such as the social and the psychic motivation. By assuming perfect rationality psychic problems are ignored. This text
Sarah W. Kendrick; Frank R. Thompson; Jennifer L. Reidy
Better knowledge of bird response to savanna and woodland restoration is needed to inform management of these communities. We related temporal and habitat variables to breeding demography and densities of the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens) across a gradient of savanna, woodland, and forest. We determined nest success, clutch size, young fledged...
Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri
Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.
Sluydts, Vincent; Davis, Stephen; Mercelis, Saskia
. The multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) is a major pest in rural areas throughout sub-Saharan Africa. It appears difficult to control since it has an opportunistic diet and the capacity for explosive population growth. We compared demographic rates between a population in an extensive maize monoculture...... in the mosaic compared to the monoculture. The probability of capture was higher in the mosaic structured grid for both the subadult and adult part of the population. The model selection procedure demonstrated that a model without an effect of habitat in both survival and seniority received most support from...... the data. No differences in the multimammate mouse demography between the monoculture and mosaic structured habitat were observed which had a substantial impact on population dynamics. This means that rodent management options in both agricultural systems could focus on the same aspects of rodent ecology....
Fraser, William R.; Patterson-Fraser, Donna L.; Ribic, Christine; Schofield, Oscar; Ducklow, Hugh
A primary research objective of the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program has been to identify and understand the factors that regulate the demography of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae). In this context, our work has been focused on variability in the marine environment on which this species depends for virtually all aspects of its life history (Ainley, 2002). As we show here, however, there are patterns evident in the population dynamics of Adélie penguins that are better explained by variability in breeding habitat quality rather than by variability in the marine system. Interactions between the geomorphology of the terrestrial environment that, in turn, affect patterns of snow deposition, drive breeding habitat quality.
Murray, C.E.; Lee, W.J.
The purpose of this report is to provide a bibliography for the Native American tribe participants in the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project to use. The HEDR Project`s primary objective is to estimate the radiation dose that individuals could have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy`s Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Eight Native American tribes are responsible for estimating daily and seasonal consumption of traditional foods, demography, and other lifestyle factors that could have affected the radiation dose received by tribal members. This report provides a bibliography of recorded accounts that tribal researchers may use to verify their estimates. The bibliographic citations include references to information on the specific tribes, Columbia River plateau ethnobotany, infant feeding practices and milk consumption, nutritional studies and radiation, tribal economic and demographic characteristics (1940--1970), research methods, primary sources from the National Archives, regional archives, libraries, and museums.
Kisiel, Luz Maria; Jones-Bitton, Andria; Sargeant, Jan M; Coe, Jason B; Flockhart, D T Tyler; Reynoso Palomar, Alejandro; Canales Vargas, Erick J; Greer, Amy L
Dog overpopulation in developing countries has negative implications for the health and safety of people, including the transmission of zoonotic diseases, physical attacks and intimidation to humans and animals, as well as impacts on canine welfare. Understanding the ecology and demographic characteristics of a dog population can help in the planning and monitoring of canine population control programs. Little data exist regarding demography and dynamics of domestic dog populations in semi-urban areas in Mexico. A cross-sectional study was carried out between October 21 and November 7, 2015, to characterize the dog ecology and demography in Villa de Tezontepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. A face-to-face survey was used to collect data from randomly selected households in four contiguous communities using stratified two-stage cluster sampling. Within each household, adults answered questions related to their dogs and their experiences with dog bites and aggression. A total of 328 households were interviewed, representing a participation rate of 90.9% (328/361) and 1,450 people. Approximately 65.2% of the households owned one or more dogs, with a mean of 1.3 (SD=1.5) and 2.0 (SD=1.5) owned dogs in all participant households and dog-owning households, respectively. The human: owned dog ratio for all participant households was 3.4:1 (1450/428), and for the dog-owning households was 2.3:1 (984/428). The owned dog male: female ratio was 1.4:1 (249/179). Approximately 74.4% (95.0% CI=69.8% - 78.7%) of the owned dogs were older than one year (mean age: 2.9 years; SD=2.5). The mean age of owned female dogs at first litter was 1.9 years (SD=1.2) and the mean litter size was 4.2 puppies (SD=2.1). Approximately 36.9% (95.0% CI=31.8% - 46.4%) of the females were spayed, and 14.1% (95.0% CI=10.7% - 19.7%) of the males were neutered. Only 44.9% (95.0% CI=40.1% - 49.7%) were always confined when unsupervised. Approximately 84.4% (95.0% CI=80.6% - 87.7%) were reported to have been vaccinated
Wu, Jin; Albert, Lauren; Lopes, Aline; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Hayek, Matthew; Wiedemann, Kenia T.; Guan, Kaiyu; Stark, Scott C.; Christoffersen, Bradley; Prohaska, Neill; Tavares, Julia V.; Marostica, Suelen; Kobayashi, Hideki; Ferreira, Maurocio L.; Campos, Kleber Silva; da Silva, Rodrigo; Brando, Paulo M.; Dye, Dennis G.; Huxman, Travis E.; Huete, Alfredo; Nelson, Bruce; Saleska, Scott
In evergreen tropical forests, the extent, magnitude, and controls on photosynthetic seasonality are poorly resolved and inadequately represented in Earth system models. Combining camera observations with ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes at forests across rainfall gradients in Amazônia, we show that aggregate canopy phenology, not seasonality of climate drivers, is the primary cause of photosynthetic seasonality in these forests. Specifically, synchronization of new leaf growth with dry season litterfall shifts canopy composition toward younger, more light-use efficient leaves, explaining large seasonal increases (~27%) in ecosystem photosynthesis. Coordinated leaf development and demography thus reconcile seemingly disparate observations at different scales and indicate that accounting for leaf-level phenology is critical for accurately simulating ecosystem-scale responses to climate change.
Nicholas K. Dulvy
Full Text Available Background. The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and devil rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. Here, we place their life history and demography within the context of other sharks and rays.Methods. Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to estimate the intrinsic risk of extinction (as indexed by the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase rmax for a typical generic manta ray using a variant of the classic Euler–Lotka demographic model. This model requires only three traits to calculate the maximum intrinsic population growth rate rmax: von Bertalanffy growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity. To account for the uncertainty in life history parameters, we created plausible parameter ranges and propagate these uncertainties through the model to calculate a distribution of the plausible range of rmax values.Results. The maximum population growth rate rmax of manta ray is most sensitive to the length of the reproductive cycle, and the median rmax of 0.116 year−1 95th percentile [0.089–0.139] is one of the lowest known of the 106 sharks and rays for which we have comparable demographic information.Discussion. In common with other unprotected, unmanaged, high-value large-bodied sharks and rays the combination of very low population growth rates of manta rays, combined with the high value of their gill rakers and the international nature of trade, is highly likely to lead to rapid depletion and potential local extinction unless a rapid conservation management response occurs worldwide. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to derive important insights into the demography extinction risk of data-poor species using well-established life
Stoner, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J. R.; Ironside, K.; Choate, D.; Longshore, K.; Edwards, T., Jr.
The seasonality of plant productivity governs the demography of primary and secondary consumers, and in arid ecosystems primary production is constrained by water availability. We relate the behavior, demography, and spatial distribution of large mammalian herbivores and their principal predator to remotely sensed indices of climate and vegetation across the western United States from 2000-2014. Terrain and plant community composition moderate the effects of climatological drought on primary productivity, resulting in spatial variation in ecosystem susceptibility to water stress. Herbivores track these patterns through habitat selection during key periods such as birthing and migration. Across a broad climatological gradient, timing of the start of growing season explains 75% of the variation in herbivore birth timing and 56% of the variation in neonatal survival rates. Initiation of autumn migration corresponds with the end of the growing season. Although indirectly coupled to primary production, carnivore home range size and population density are strongly correlated with plant productivity and growing-season length. Satellite measures of green reflectance during the peak of the growing season explain over 84% of the variation in carnivore home range size and 59% of the variation in density. Climate projections for the western United States predict warming temperatures and shifts in the timing and form of precipitation. Our analyses suggest that increased climatological variability will contribute to fluctuations in the composition and phenology of plant communities. These changes will propagate through consumer trophic levels, manifesting as increased home range area, shifts in the timing of migration, and greater volatility in large mammal populations. Combined with expansion and amplification of human land uses, these changes will likely have economic implications stemming from increased human-wildlife conflict and loss of ecosystem services.
Dulvy, Nicholas K; Pardo, Sebastián A; Simpfendorfer, Colin A; Carlson, John K
Background. The directed harvest and global trade in the gill plates of mantas, and devil rays, has led to increased fishing pressure and steep population declines in some locations. The slow life history, particularly of the manta rays, is cited as a key reason why such species have little capacity to withstand directed fisheries. Here, we place their life history and demography within the context of other sharks and rays. Methods. Despite the limited availability of data, we use life history theory and comparative analysis to estimate the intrinsic risk of extinction (as indexed by the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase r max) for a typical generic manta ray using a variant of the classic Euler-Lotka demographic model. This model requires only three traits to calculate the maximum intrinsic population growth rate r max: von Bertalanffy growth rate, annual pup production and age at maturity. To account for the uncertainty in life history parameters, we created plausible parameter ranges and propagate these uncertainties through the model to calculate a distribution of the plausible range of r max values. Results. The maximum population growth rate r max of manta ray is most sensitive to the length of the reproductive cycle, and the median r max of 0.116 year(-1) 95th percentile [0.089-0.139] is one of the lowest known of the 106 sharks and rays for which we have comparable demographic information. Discussion. In common with other unprotected, unmanaged, high-value large-bodied sharks and rays the combination of very low population growth rates of manta rays, combined with the high value of their gill rakers and the international nature of trade, is highly likely to lead to rapid depletion and potential local extinction unless a rapid conservation management response occurs worldwide. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to derive important insights into the demography extinction risk of data-poor species using well-established life history theory.
Full Text Available Abstract Background The majority of sex work in India is clandestine due to unfavorable legal environment and discrimination against female sex workers (FSWs. We report data on who these women are and when they get involved with sex work that could assist in increasing the reach of HIV prevention activities for them. Methods Detailed documentation of demography and various aspects of sex work was done through confidential interviews of 6648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The demography of FSWs was compared with that of women in the general population. Results A total of 5010 (75.4%, 1499 (22.5%, and 139 (2.1% street-, home-, and brothel-based FSWs, respectively, participated. Comparison with women of Andhra Pradesh revealed that the proportion of those aged 20–34 years (75.6%, belonging to scheduled caste (35.3% and scheduled tribe (10.5%, illiterate (74.7%, and of those separated/divorced (30.7% was higher among FSWs (p 5 years were more likely to be non-street-based FSWs, illiterate, living in small urban towns, and to have started sex work between 12–15 years of age. The mean age at starting sex work (21.7 years and gap between the first vaginal intercourse and the first sexual intercourse in exchange for money (6.6 years was lower for FSWs in the rural areas as compared with those in large urban areas (23.9 years and 8.8 years, respectively. Conclusion These data highlight that women struggling with illiteracy, lower social status, and less economic opportunities are especially vulnerable to being infected by HIV, as sex work may be one of the few options available to them to earn money. Recommendations for actions are made for long-term impact on reducing the numbers of women being infected by HIV in addition to the current HIV prevention efforts in India.
Dandona, Rakhi; Dandona, Lalit; Kumar, G Anil; Gutierrez, Juan Pablo; McPherson, Sam; Samuels, Fiona; Bertozzi, Stefano M
Background The majority of sex work in India is clandestine due to unfavorable legal environment and discrimination against female sex workers (FSWs). We report data on who these women are and when they get involved with sex work that could assist in increasing the reach of HIV prevention activities for them. Methods Detailed documentation of demography and various aspects of sex work was done through confidential interviews of 6648 FSWs in 13 districts in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The demography of FSWs was compared with that of women in the general population. Results A total of 5010 (75.4%), 1499 (22.5%), and 139 (2.1%) street-, home-, and brothel-based FSWs, respectively, participated. Comparison with women of Andhra Pradesh revealed that the proportion of those aged 20–34 years (75.6%), belonging to scheduled caste (35.3%) and scheduled tribe (10.5%), illiterate (74.7%), and of those separated/divorced (30.7%) was higher among FSWs (p 5 years were more likely to be non-street-based FSWs, illiterate, living in small urban towns, and to have started sex work between 12–15 years of age. The mean age at starting sex work (21.7 years) and gap between the first vaginal intercourse and the first sexual intercourse in exchange for money (6.6 years) was lower for FSWs in the rural areas as compared with those in large urban areas (23.9 years and 8.8 years, respectively). Conclusion These data highlight that women struggling with illiteracy, lower social status, and less economic opportunities are especially vulnerable to being infected by HIV, as sex work may be one of the few options available to them to earn money. Recommendations for actions are made for long-term impact on reducing the numbers of women being infected by HIV in addition to the current HIV prevention efforts in India. PMID:16615869
Dugatkin, Lee Alan
From 1888 to his death in 1921, Russian Prince Peter Kropotkin forced biologists to ask themselves whether natural selection inevitably led to a dog-eat-dog world, or whether pro-social behavior could also be a product of the evolutionary process. In this historical vignette, I focus on Kropotkin's theory of "mutual aid," with emphasis on the role that empathy played in that theory, and the unexpected source--economist Adam Smith's 1759 book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments--of Kropotkin's ideas on empathy in animals. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Sherman, P.W.; Runge, M.C.
We studied the demography of a population of Northern Idaho ground squirrels (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus) in Adams Co., Idaho. The population was completely censused yearly from 1987 to 1999, during which time it declined from 272 to 10 animals. The finite population growth rate, based on a Leslie matrix model of average life-history parameters, was only 0.72 (i.e., significantly conifers to encroach on inhabited meadows, shrinking them and closing dispersal routes. The proximate cause of the population's collapse was mortality of older breeding females, which reduced the mean age of breeders. Younger females had lower average pregnancy rates and litter sizes. To place our results in context we developed a new, general classification of anthropogenic population declines, based on whether they are caused by changes in the means of the life-history parameters (blatant disturbances), their variances (inappropriate variations), or the correlations among them (evolutionary traps). Many S. b. brunneus populations have disappeared in recent years, apparently due to blatant disturbances, especially loss of habitat and changes in food-plant composition, resulting in inadequate prehibernation nutrition and starvation overwinter. In addition, our study population may have been caught in an evolutionary trap, because the vegetational cues that could potentially enable the animals to adjust reproduction to the anticipated food supply no longer correlate with availability of fat-laden seeds.
Capitán, José A.; Manrubia, Susanna
The distribution of human linguistic groups presents a number of interesting and nontrivial patterns. The distributions of the number of speakers per language and the area each group covers follow log-normal distributions, while population and area fulfill an allometric relationship. The topology of networks of spatial contacts between different linguistic groups has been recently characterized, showing atypical properties of the degree distribution and clustering, among others. Human demography, spatial conflicts, and the construction of networks of contacts between linguistic groups are mutually dependent processes. Here we introduce an adaptive network model that takes all of them into account and successfully reproduces, using only four model parameters, not only those features of linguistic groups already described in the literature, but also correlations between demographic and topological properties uncovered in this work. Besides their relevance when modeling and understanding processes related to human biogeography, our adaptive network model admits a number of generalizations that broaden its scope and make it suitable to represent interactions between agents based on population dynamics and competition for space.
I used a GIS raster layer of an area in the Churchill, Manitoba region to investigate the effect of breeding habitat on demography and density of Whimbrel from 2010 through 2013. Program MARK was used to quantify adult and daily nest survival. Apparent annual survival of 0.73 +/- 0.06 SE (95% CI = 0.60-0.83) did not significantly differ between sexes or habitats and was lower than expected based on longevity records and estimates for other large-bodied shorebirds. Nest success, corrected for exposure days, was highly variable, ranging from a low of 3% (95% CI = 0-12%) in 2011 to a high of 71% (95% CI = 54-83%) in 2013. The highest rate of nest survival occurred in the spring with the warmest mean temperature. I developed a generalized linear model (GLM) with a negative-binomial distribution from random plots that were surveyed for abundance to extrapolate a local breeding population size of 410 +/- 230 SE and density of 3.2 birds per square km +/- 1.8 SE. The result of my study suggests that other aspects of habitat not captured by the land cover categories may be more important to population dynamics.
Sear, Rebecca; Lawson, David W; Kaplan, Hillard; Shenk, Mary K
Decades of research on human fertility has presented a clear picture of how fertility varies, including its dramatic decline over the last two centuries in most parts of the world. Why fertility varies, both between and within populations, is not nearly so well understood. Fertility is a complex phenomenon, partly physiologically and partly behaviourally determined, thus an interdisciplinary approach is required to understand it. Evolutionary demographers have focused on human fertility since the 1980s. The first wave of evolutionary demographic research made major theoretical and empirical advances, investigating variation in fertility primarily in terms of fitness maximization. Research focused particularly on variation within high-fertility populations and small-scale subsistence societies and also yielded a number of hypotheses for why fitness maximization seems to break down as fertility declines during the demographic transition. A second wave of evolutionary demography research on fertility is now underway, paying much more attention to the cultural and psychological mechanisms underpinning fertility. It is also engaging with the complex, multi-causal nature of fertility variation, and with understanding fertility in complex modern and transitioning societies. Here, we summarize the history of evolutionary demographic work on human fertility, describe the current state of the field, and suggest future directions. © 2016 The Author(s).
Butler, J R; Bingham, J
Dogs are Zimbabwe's primary vector for rabies, and the majority live in communal lands (traditional agropastoralist rural areas). In 1994, a household questionnaire survey was conducted to provide baseline data on the demography and dog-human relationships of the dogs in the communal lands. The survey showed that all the dogs were owned, and there was no evidence of a feral population. They were unrestricted and semi-dependent on people. The numbers of dogs per capita varied little in each communal land, resulting in higher dog densities in communal lands with higher human densities, and indicating that people were not intolerant of dogs at higher densities. The population turnover was rapid: the life expectancy of the dogs was 1.1 years, the mean age 2.0 years, and 71.8 per cent died in their first year. The population was heavily skewed towards juveniles, with 40.8 per cent aged less than 12 months. Despite the high juvenile mortality, the population was growing by 6.52 per cent per annum. It was estimated that in 1994 there were 1.36 million dogs in communal lands.
Full Text Available Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition.
Building upon the work of Thomas Gieryn and Erving Goffman, this paper will explore how the concepts of stigma and boundary work can be usefully applied to history of population science. Having been closely aligned to eugenics in the early 20th century, from the 1930s both demographers and geneticists began to establish a boundary between their own disciplines and eugenic ideology. The eugenics movement responded to this process of stigmatization. Through strategies defined by Goffman as 'disclosure' and 'concealment', stigma was managed, and a limited space for eugenics was retained in science and policy. Yet by the 1960s, a revitalized eugenics movement was bringing leading social and biological scientists together through the study of the genetic demography of characteristics such as intelligence. The success of this programme of 'stigma transformation' resulted from its ability to allow geneticists and demographers to conceive of eugenic improvement in ways that seemed consistent with the ideals of individuality, diversity and liberty. In doing so, it provided them with an alternative, and a challenge, to more radical and controversial programmes to realize an optimal genotype and population. The processes of stigma attribution and management are, however, ongoing, and since the rise of the nature-nurture controversy in the 1970s, the use of eugenics as a 'stigma symbol' has prevailed.
The relationship between biological and social scientists as regards the study of human traits and behavior has often been perceived in terms of mutual distrust, even antipathy. In the interwar period, population study seemed an area that might allow for closer relations between them-united as they were by a concern to improve the eugenic quality of populations. Yet these relations were in tension: by the early post-war era, social demographers were denigrating the contributions of biologists to the study of population problems as embodying the elitist ideology of eugenics. In response to this loss of credibility, the eugenics movement pursued a simultaneous program of withdrawal and expansion: its leaders helped focus concern with biological quality onto the developing field of medical genetics, while at the same moment, extended their scope to improving the social quality of populations through birth control policies, guided by demography. While this approach maintained boundaries between the social and the biological, in the 1960s, a revitalized American Eugenics Society helped reunite leading demographers and geneticists. This paper will assess the reasons for this period of influence for eugenics, and explore its implications for the social and biological study of human populations.
Trucchi, Emiliano; Gratton, Paolo; Whittington, Jason D; Cristofari, Robin; Le Maho, Yvon; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Le Bohec, Céline
How natural climate cycles, such as past glacial/interglacial patterns, have shaped species distributions at the high-latitude regions of the Southern Hemisphere is still largely unclear. Here, we show how the post-glacial warming following the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 18 000 years ago), allowed the (re)colonization of the fragmented sub-Antarctic habitat by an upper-level marine predator, the king penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus. Using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing and standard mitochondrial data, we tested the behaviour of subsets of anonymous nuclear loci in inferring past demography through coalescent-based and allele frequency spectrum analyses. Our results show that the king penguin population breeding on Crozet archipelago steeply increased in size, closely following the Holocene warming recorded in the Epica Dome C ice core. The following population growth can be explained by a threshold model in which the ecological requirements of this species (year-round ice-free habitat for breeding and access to a major source of food such as the Antarctic Polar Front) were met on Crozet soon after the Pleistocene/Holocene climatic transition. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
Plard, Floriane; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Coulson, Tim; Hewison, A. J. Mark; Delorme, Daniel; Warnant, Claude; Bonenfant, Christophe
Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition. PMID:24690936
Krannich, R.S.; Stanfield, G.G.
The emergence of concern regarding socioeconomic consequences of large-scale development projects has resulted in a growing literature directed as estimating the types and levels of various impact dimensions which can be expected to result in human communities experiencing such development. Among these dimensions, a focus on population change has been prevalent. Accurate demographic predictions may be viewed as critical for the adequate comprehension of and preparation for impacts deriving from projects such as energy facility developments. Unfortunately, the state of the art in projecting demographic consequences of energy projects has been generally inadequate. Several of the more influential prior methods for estimating local demographic effects of developing energy facilities are critiqued, although their specific prediction figures are not summarized. The studies reviewed were found to be of dubious practical utility, probably due in part to the failure of basic demography to provide a base of support for applied demographic research. This report sets forth recommendations for the development of a theoretical perspective which would more adequately serve the needs of practitioners attempting to predict local demographic effects of energy facility development
Fox, Laurel R
Species with known demographies may be used as proxies, or approximate models, to predict vital rates and ecological properties of target species that either have not been studied or are species for which data may be difficult to obtain. These extrapolations assume that model and target species with similar properties respond in the same ways to the same ecological factors, that they have similar population dynamics, and that the similarity of vital rates reflects analogous responses to the same factors. I used two rare, sympatric annual plants (sand gilia [Gilia tenuiflora arenaria] and Monterey spineflower [Chorizanthe pungens pungens]) to test these assumptions experimentally. The vital rates of these species are similar and strongly correlated with rainfall, and I added water and/or prevented herbivore access to experimental plots. Their survival and reproduction were driven by different, largely stochastic factors and processes: sand gilia by herbivory and Monterey spineflower by rainfall. Because the causal agents and processes generating similar demographic patterns were species specific, these results demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that it is critical to identify the ecological processes generating observed effects and that experimental manipulations are usually needed to determine causal mechanisms. Without such evidence to identify mechanisms, extrapolations among species may lead to counterproductive management and conservation practices.
Brooks, Christopher P.; Holmes, Christopher; Kramer, Karen; Barnett, Barry; Keitt, Timothy H.
The highland forests of Madagascar are home to some of the world's most unique and diverse flora and fauna and to some of its poorest people. This juxtaposition of poverty and biodiversity is continually reinforced by rapid population growth, which results in increasing pressure on the remaining forest habitat in the highland region, and the biodiversity therein. Here we derive a mathematical expression for the subsistence of households to assess the role of markets and household demography on deforestation near Ranomafana National Park. In villages closest to urban rice markets, households were likely to clear less land than our model predicted, presumably because they were purchasing food at market. This effect was offset by the large number of migrant households who cleared significantly more land between 1989–2003 than did residents throughout the region. Deforestation by migrant households typically occurred after a mean time lag of 9 years. Analyses suggest that while local conservation efforts in Madagascar have been successful at reducing the footprint of individual households, large-scale conservation must rely on policies that can reduce the establishment of new households in remaining forested areas. PMID:19536282
Although difficult to estimate for prehistoric hunter-gatherer populations, demographic variables-population size, density, and the connectedness of demes-are critical for a better understanding of the processes of material culture change, especially in deep prehistory. Demography is the middle-range link between climatic changes and both biological and cultural evolutionary trajectories of human populations. Much of human material culture functions as a buffer against climatic changes, and the study of prehistoric population dynamics, estimated through changing frequencies of calibrated radiocarbon dates, therefore affords insights into how effectively such buffers operated and when they failed. In reviewing a number of case studies (Mesolithic Ireland, the origin of the Bromme culture, and the earliest late glacial human recolonization of southern Scandinavia), I suggest that a greater awareness of demographic processes, and in particular of demographic declines, provides many fresh insights into what structured the archaeological record. I argue that we cannot sideline climatic and environmental factors or extreme geophysical events in our reconstructions of prehistoric culture change. The implications of accepting demographic variability as a departure point for evaluating the archaeological record are discussed.
Helga C. Wiederhecker
Full Text Available The demography of a population of Tropidurus torquatus was studied from March 1996 until December 1998, in the Cerrado biome of the Central Brazil, using the method of capture and recapture. Population size, number of incoming individuals in the population, and age structure varied seasonally, reflecting the reproductive cycle of the species. The instantaneous rate of population increase did not differ from zero throughout the study. In general, the permanence rate of juveniles and adults were low, indicating a large turnover of individuals in the population, with a maximum life expectancy of three years. The sex-ratio among adults was biased toward females. Since no bias was observed among juveniles and there was no difference in adults permanence between sexes, we suggestet that the biased adult sex-ratio resulted from a lower permanence of males during a short ontogenetic period, when secondary sexual characteristics develop. When compared to T. itambere, the studied population of T. torquatus attained a higher density and a greater female bias in the sex-ratio. In general, the studied population presented characteristics that, according to life history theory, should be associated with early age at maturity and polyginy: short life expectancy, high population turnover, and female biased sex-ratios.
P. SYLOS LABINI
Full Text Available Tutti gli economisti concordano sul fatto che i cambiamenti tecnologici costituiscono la principale fonte di sviluppo economico . Tuttavia , molti economisti sono convinti che tali cambiamenti sono importanti solo per spinegre verso l'alto il tasso di sviluppo economico, che a lungo andare sarebbe altrimenti più basso e costante , con l'accumulazione di capitale e forza lavoro di crescita in atto gradualmente . Al contrario , il presente lavoro sostiene che nel lungo periodo , il progresso tecnico non è il fattore principale dello sviluppo economico , ma piuttosto una condizione necessaria . L'autore esamina l'evoluzione tecnologica nella teoria economica e la storia dello sviluppo economico . La disoccupazione tecnologica e la disoccupazione keynesiana sono quindi analizzate , così come la riduzione dell'orario di lavoro . Infine , l'autore considera più recenti sviluppi tecnologici ed economici e la loro relazione con il lavoro manuale e intellettuale .All economists agree that technological changes constitute the main source of economic development. Nonetheless, many economists are convinced that such changes are important only in pushing up the rate of economic development, which in the long run would otherwise be lower and constant, with capital accumulation and labor force growth taking place gradually. To the contrary, the present work argues that in the long run, technical progress is not the main factor of economic development, but rather a necessary condition. The author examines technological change in economic theory and the history of economic development. Technological unemployment and Keynesian unemployment are then considered as well as the reduction of working hours. Finally, the author considers more recent technological and economic developments and their relation to manual and intellectual labour.JEL: O33, E24
Liordos, Vasilios; Kontsiotis, Vasileios J; Anastasiadou, Magdalini; Karavasias, Efstathios
It is critical for managers to understand how attitudes and demography affect public's preferences for species protection for designing successful conservation projects. 1080 adults in Greece were asked to rate pictures of 12 endangered species on aesthetic and negativistic attitudes, and intention to support their conservation. Factor analysis identified a group of animals for which respondents indicated high levels of support for their conservation (red deer, loggerhead sea turtle, brown bear, common pheasant, European ground squirrel, glossy ibis) and a group of animals for which respondents indicated low levels of support (black vulture, great white shark, fire-bellied toad, western barbastelle, Cretan tube web spider, Milos viper). The species that received the highest support were also rated as the most attractive and safest, excluding the fearsome brown bear. Structural models revealed that aesthetic, moralistic and negativistic attitudes were the stronger predictors of support. Aesthetic and moralistic attitudes were positively, and negativistic attitudes negatively, correlated with support for conservation in both groups. Consumptive users scored lower in aesthetics and were less supportive of protection in the high support group, while nonconsumptive users showed the opposite trend. Respondents residing in urban areas deemed animals of high support more attractive and less fearsome and were more supportive of conservation than rural residents in both groups. Females of higher education viewed animals of low support as fearsome, however they supported their conservation. Our study identified popular species that can be used as flagship species to facilitate the implementation of conservation projects. The results of this study could also be used to design a communication and outreach campaign to raise awareness about the ecosystem value of less attractive species. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Ketmaier, Valerio; Marrone, Federico; Alfonso, Giuseppe; Paulus, Kirsten; Wiemann, Annika; Tiedemann, Ralph; Mura, Graziella
Mediterranean temporary water bodies are important reservoirs of biodiversity and host a unique assemblage of diapausing aquatic invertebrates. These environments are currently vanishing because of increasing human pressure. Chirocephalus kerkyrensis is a fairy shrimp typical of temporary water bodies in Mediterranean plain forests and has undergone a substantial decline in number of populations in recent years due to habitat loss. We assessed patterns of genetic connectivity and phylogeographic history in the seven extant populations of the species from Albania, Corfu Is. (Greece), Southern and Central Italy. We analyzed sequence variation at two mitochondrial DNA genes (Cytochrome Oxidase I and 16s rRNA) in all the known populations of C. kerkyrensis. We used multiple phylogenetic, phylogeographic and coalescence-based approaches to assess connectivity and historical demography across the whole distribution range of the species. C. kerkyrensis is genetically subdivided into three main mitochondrial lineages; two of them are geographically localized (Corfu Is. and Central Italy) and one encompasses a wide geographic area (Albania and Southern Italy). Most of the detected genetic variation (≈81%) is apportioned among the aforementioned lineages. Multiple analyses of mismatch distributions consistently supported both past demographic and spatial expansions with the former predating the latter; demographic expansions were consistently placed during interglacial warm phases of the Pleistocene while spatial expansions were restricted to cold periods. Coalescence methods revealed a scenario of past isolation with low levels of gene flow in line with what is already known for other co-distributed fairy shrimps and suggest drift as the prevailing force in promoting local divergence. We recommend that these evolutionary trajectories should be taken in proper consideration in any effort aimed at protecting Mediterranean temporary water bodies.
Nancy E. Karraker
Full Text Available Background Lowland areas in tropical East and Southeast Asia have a long history of conversion from forestland to agricultural land, with many remaining forests being chronically degraded by wood cutting, livestock grazing, and burning. Wetland-breeding amphibians that have evolved in lowland forests in the region have adjusted to changes in habitat composition caused by humans’ activities, and populations continue to persist. However, we have little understanding of the impacts of forest disturbance on these species beyond assessments of abundance and distribution, and species considered to be common and widespread have been largely neglected. Methods We examined body condition and sex ratios of toads (Duttaphrynus melanostictus, predation risk in treefrogs (2 Polypedates spp., and growth and survival of leaf litter frogs (2 Microhyla spp. in agricultural land, degraded forest, and intact forest in two study areas, Thailand and Hong Kong. Results Toad populations exhibited higher body condition and female-biased sex ratios in intact forest. Predation of treefrog embryos by flies was lower in intact and degraded forests than in agricultural land. Embryonic survival and larval growth and survival in leaf litter frogs were lower in intact forests than in agricultural land. Results for each study were similar between study areas. Discussion For three of five of these common amphibian species, we documented signals of forest loss and disturbance in their populations. Although these species occur in disturbed habitats, loss of forest cover continues to degrade aspects of their population demography. We urge conservation biologists to consider that populations of species appearing to be common, widespread, and tolerant of human disturbance may be eroding over time.
Chu, Ta-Jen; Wang, Daryi; Lee, Ying-Chou; Tzeng, Tzong-Der
The oriental river prawn (Macrobrachium nipponense) is a non-obligatory amphidromous prawn, and it has a wide distribution covering almost the entire Taiwan. Mitochondrial DNA fragment sequences of the cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S rRNA were combined and used to elucidate the population structure and historical demography of oriental river prawn in Taiwan. A total of 202 individuals from six reservoirs and three estuaries were separately collected. Nucleotide diversity (π) of all populations was 0.01217, with values ranging from 0.00188 (Shihmen Reservoir, SMR, northern Taiwan) to 0.01425 (Mingte Reservoir, MTR, west-central Taiwan). All 76 haplotypes were divided into 2 lineages: lineage A included individuals from all sampling areas except SMR, and lineage B included specimens from all sampling locations except Chengching Lake Reservoir (CLR) and Liyu Lake Reservoir (LLR). All F ST values among nine populations were significantly different except the one between Jhonggang River Estuary (JGE, west-central Taiwan) and Kaoping River Estuary (KPE, southern Taiwan). UPGMA tree of nine populations showed two main groups: the first group included the SMR and Tamsui River Estuary (TSE) (both located northern Taiwan), and the second one included the other seven populations (west-central, southern and eastern Taiwan). Demographic analyses implied a population expansion occurred during the recent history of the species. The dispersal route of this species might be from China to west-central and west-southern Taiwan, and then the part individuals belonging to lineage A and B dispersed southerly and northerly, respectively. And then part individuals in west-central Taiwan fell back to and stay at estuaries as the sea level rose about 18,000 years ago. PMID:26716687
Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.
In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.
Wang, D.; Lebauer, D. S.; Feng, X.; Dietze, M. C.
Hybrid poplar plantations are an important source being evaluated for biomass production. Effective management of such plantations requires adequate growth and yield models. The Ecosystem Demography model (ED) makes predictions about the large scales of interest in above- and belowground ecosystem structure and the fluxes of carbon and water from a description of the fine-scale physiological processes. In this study, we used a workflow management tool, the Predictive Ecophysiological Carbon flux Analyzer (PECAn), to integrate literature data, field measurement and the ED model to provide predictions of ecosystem functioning. Parameters for the ED ensemble runs were sampled from the posterior distribution of ecophysiological traits of Populus species compiled from the literature using a Bayesian meta-analysis approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the parameters which contribute the most to the uncertainties of the ED model output. Model emulation techniques were used to update parameter posterior distributions using field-observed data in northern Wisconsin hybrid poplar plantations. Model results were evaluated with 5-year field-observed data in a hybrid poplar plantation at New Franklin, MO. ED was then used to predict the spatial variability of poplar yield in the coterminous United States (United States minus Alaska and Hawaii). Sensitivity analysis showed that root respiration, dark respiration, growth respiration, stomatal slope and specific leaf area contribute the most to the uncertainty, which suggests that our field measurements and data collection should focus on these parameters. The ED model successfully captured the inter-annual and spatial variability of the yield of poplar. Analyses in progress with the ED model focus on evaluating the ecosystem services of short-rotation woody plantations, such as impacts on soil carbon storage, water use, and nutrient retention.
Fulgione, Andrea; Koornneef, Maarten; Roux, Fabrice; Hermisson, Joachim; Hancock, Angela M
The study of model organisms on islands may shed light on rare long-range dispersal events, uncover signatures of local evolutionary processes, and inform demographic inference on the mainland. Here, we sequenced the genomes of Arabidopsis thaliana samples from the oceanic island of Madeira. These samples include the most diverged worldwide, likely a result of long isolation on the island. We infer that colonisation of Madeira happened between 70 and 85 kya, consistent with a propagule dispersal model (of size > =10), or with an ecological window of opportunity. This represents a clear example of a natural long-range dispersal event in A. thaliana. Long-term effective population size on the island, rather than the founder effect, had the greatest impact on levels of diversity, and rates of coalescence. Our results uncover a selective sweep signature on the ancestral haplotype of a known translocation in Eurasia, as well as the possible importance of the low phosphorous availability in volcanic soils, and altitude, in shaping early adaptations to the island conditions. Madeiran genomes, sheltered from the complexities of continental demography, help illuminate ancient demographic events in Eurasia. Our data support a model in which two separate lineages of A. thaliana, one originating in Africa and the other from the Caucasus expanded and met in Iberia, resulting in a secondary contact zone there. While previous studies inferred that the westward expansion of A. thaliana coincided with the spread of human agriculture, our results suggest it happened much earlier (20-40 kya). © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.
Beig, Junaid; Khanolkar, Manish; Cundy, Tim
Type 2 diabetes (T2D) in young adults is associated with a high risk of diabetes complications. To investigated the demography and the emergence of complications of young adults with T2D in the central Auckland region where there has been substantial immigration. In total, 310 young adults with T2D (Auckland Diabetes Centre in 2015. We documented demographic, anthropometric and metabolic variables and prevalence and the emergence of complications. Three demographic groups accounted for 243 participants (78%): 135 (44%) were migrants of Asian or Pacific Island origin, diagnosed a median 9 years after migration at a mean age of 28 ± 6 years; 88 (29%) were New Zealand-born Pāsifika descent, with a high prevalence of morbid obesity and 37 (12%) had major mental illness or intellectual disability. At diagnosis, the median HbA1c was 80 mmol/mol, and in 28%, it was ≥100 mmol/mol. A median 6 years after diagnosis, 56% had some degree of retinopathy, with the prevalence related both to the duration of diabetes and glycaemic control (P = 0.001). Forty-four percent of subjects had abnormal albuminuria at diagnosis (12% with macroalbuminuria). Increased albuminuria was strongly associated with obesity (P = 0.002). The development of CKD stages 4-5 was related both to the severity of retinopathy and degree of albuminuria at diagnosis (P = 0.0001). Major cardiovascular events were related to the severity of retinopathy at diagnosis (P = 0.0001). New migrants, New Zealand-born Pāsifika and patients with mental illness or an intellectual disability comprise the bulk of young onset T2D. The disease is aggressive, and by the age of 40, patients are already developing advanced complications. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.
Connallon, Tim; Clark, Andrew G
Antagonistic selection--where alleles at a locus have opposing effects on male and female fitness ("sexual antagonism") or between components of fitness ("antagonistic pleiotropy")--might play an important role in maintaining population genetic variation and in driving phylogenetic and genomic patterns of sexual dimorphism and life-history evolution. While prior theory has thoroughly characterized the conditions necessary for antagonistic balancing selection to operate, we currently know little about the evolutionary interactions between antagonistic selection, recurrent mutation, and genetic drift, which should collectively shape empirical patterns of genetic variation. To fill this void, we developed and analyzed a series of population genetic models that simultaneously incorporate these processes. Our models identify two general properties of antagonistically selected loci. First, antagonistic selection inflates heterozygosity and fitness variance across a broad parameter range--a result that applies to alleles maintained by balancing selection and by recurrent mutation. Second, effective population size and genetic drift profoundly affect the statistical frequency distributions of antagonistically selected alleles. The "efficacy" of antagonistic selection (i.e., its tendency to dominate over genetic drift) is extremely weak relative to classical models, such as directional selection and overdominance. Alleles meeting traditional criteria for strong selection (N(e)s > 1, where N(e) is the effective population size, and s is a selection coefficient for a given sex or fitness component) may nevertheless evolve as if neutral. The effects of mutation and demography may generate population differences in overall levels of antagonistic fitness variation, as well as molecular population genetic signatures of balancing selection.
Vitousek, P.M.; Walker, L.R.
Myrica faya, an introduced actinorhizal nitrogen fixer, in invading young volcanic sites in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. We examined the population biology of the invader and ecosystem-level consequences of its invasion in open-canopied forests resulting from volcanic cinder-fall. Although Myrica faya is nominally dioecious, both males and females produce large amounts of fruit that are utilized by a number of exotic and native birds, particularly the exotic Zosterops japonica. In areas of active colonization, Myrica seed rain under perch trees of the dominant native Metrosideros polymorpha ranged from 6 to 60 seeds m -2 yr -1 ; no seeds were captured in the open. Planted seeds of Myrica also germinated an established better under isolated individuals of Metrosideros than in the open. Diameter growth of Myrica is > 15-fold greater than that of Metrosideros, and the Myrica population is increasing rapidly. Rates of nitrogen fixation were measured using the acetylene reduction assay calibrated with 15 N. Myrica nodules reduced acetylene at between 5 and 20 μmol g -1 h -1 , a rate that extrapolated to nitrogen fixation of 18 kg ha -1 in a densely colonized site. By comparison, all native sources of nitrogen fixation summed to 0.2 kg ha -1 yr -1 , and precipitation added -1 yr -1 . Measurements of litter decomposition and nitrogen release, soil nitrogen mineralization, and plant growth in bioassays all demonstrated that nitrogen fixed by Myrica becomes available to other organisms as well. We conclude that biological invasion by Myrica faya alters ecosystem-level properties in this young volcanic area; at least in this case, the demography and physiology of one species controls characteristics of a whole ecosystem
Ryan, Sadie J; Jones, James H; Dobson, Andrew P
Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.
Chelgren, Nathan D.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Bowerman, Jay; Adams, Michael J.
From 2001 to 2005, we studied the demography and seasonal movement of Oregon spotted frogs (Rana pretiosa) translocated into created ponds in Dilman Meadow in central Oregon. Our objectives were to inform future monitoring and management at the site, and to elucidate poorly known aspects of the species’ population ecology. Movement rates revealed complementary use of sites seasonally, with one small spring being preferred during winter that was rarely used during the rest of the year. Growth rates were significantly higher in ponds that were not used for breeding, and larger size resulted in significantly higher survival. When variation in survival by size was accounted for there was little variation among ponds in survival. Seasonal estimates of survival were lowest for males during the breeding/post-breeding redistribution period, suggesting a high cost of breeding for males. Overwintering survival for both genders was relatively high. Our study supports others in suggesting Oregon spotted frogs are specific in their overwintering habitat requirements, and that predator-free springs may be of particular value. We suggest that any future monitoring include measures of the rate of pond succession. Demographic monitoring should include metrics of both frog reproduction and survival: counts of egg masses at all ponds during spring, and capture-recapture study of survival in mid and late summer when capture rates are highest. Additional study of early life stages would be particularly useful to broaden our understanding of the species’ ecology. Specifically, adding intensive capture and marking effort after larval transformation in fall would enable a full understanding of the annual life cycle. Complete study of the annual life cycle is needed to isolate the life stages and mechanisms through which Oregon spotted frogs are affected by stressors such as nonnative predators. Dilman Meadow, which lacks many hypothesized stressors, is an important reference for
Flores, Olivier; Hérault, Bruno; Delcamp, Matthieu; Garnier, Éric; Gourlet-Fleury, Sylvie
How tropical tree species respond to disturbance is a central issue of forest ecology, conservation and resource management. We define a hierarchical model to investigate how functional traits measured in control plots relate to the population change rate and to demographic rates for recruitment and mortality after disturbance by logging operations. Population change and demographic rates were quantified on a 12-year period after disturbance and related to seven functional traits measured in control plots. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian Network approach on 53 species surveyed in permanent forest plots (37.5 ha) at Paracou in French Guiana. The network analysis allowed us to highlight both direct and indirect relationships among predictive variables. Overall, 89% of interspecific variability in the population change rate after disturbance were explained by the two demographic rates, the recruitment rate being the most explicative variable. Three direct drivers explained 45% of the variability in recruitment rates, including leaf phosphorus concentration, with a positive effect, and seed size and wood density with negative effects. Mortality rates were explained by interspecific variability in maximum diameter only (25%). Wood density, leaf nitrogen concentration, maximum diameter and seed size were not explained by variables in the analysis and thus appear as independent drivers of post-disturbance demography. Relationships between functional traits and demographic parameters were consistent with results found in undisturbed forests. Functional traits measured in control conditions can thus help predict the fate of tropical tree species after disturbance. Indirect relationships also suggest how different processes interact to mediate species demographic response.
O'Neill, Dan G; Darwent, Elisabeth C; Church, David B; Brodbelt, Dave C
The Border Terrier is a working terrier type that is generally considered to be a relatively healthy and hardy breed. This study aimed to characterise the demography and common disorders of Border Terriers receiving veterinary care in England using de-identified electronic patient record data within the VetCompass™ Programme. Annual birth proportion for Border Terriers showed a decreasing trend from 1.46% in 2005 to 0.78% in 2014. The median adult bodyweight for males (10.9 kg, IQR: 9.6-12.3, range: 6.3-25.0) was higher than for females (9.1 kg, IQR: 8.2-10.3, range: 5.2-21.6) ( P skin disorder (10.17%, 95% CI: 8.60-11.93).Syndromic analysis showed that the most prevalent body locations affected were the head-and-neck (37.75%, 95% CI: 35.14-40.43), abdomen (18.61%, 95% CI: 16.55-20.81) and limb (11.53%, 95% CI: 9.86-13.37). At least one organ system was affected in 834 (62.85%) Border Terriers. The most prevalent organ systems affected were the digestive (32.03%, 95% CI: 29.52-34.61), integument (26.68%, 95% CI: 24.31-29.14), connective/soft tissue (11.15%, 95% CI: 9.51-12.97) and auditory (9.87%, 95% CI: 8.32-11.60). At least one affected pathophysiological process was described in 881 (66.39%) Border Terriers. The most prevalent pathophysiologic processes recorded were inflammation (31.65%, 95% CI: 29.15-34.23), nutritional (9.04%, 95% CI: 7.55-10.72), mass/swelling (8.89%, 95% CI: 7.42-10.55), traumatic (7.99%, 95% CI: 6.59-9.58) and infectious (7.76%, 95% CI: 6.38-9.33). This study documented a trend towards reducing ownership and relatively long-livedness in the Border Terrier. The most common disorders were periodontal disease, overweight/obesity and otitis externa. Predisposition to dental and neurological disease was suggested. These results can provide a comprehensive evidence resource to support breed-based health plans that can contribute positively to reforms to improve health and welfare within the breed.
Van Horne, Beatrice; Olson, Gail S.; Schooley, Robert L.; Corn, Janelle G.; Burnham, Kenneth P.
in persistence and density and produced more young per female during the next active season following the drought (1993) than did ground squirrels in grassland habitat, where densities had been significantly higher prior to the drought and prolonged winter.Studies involving habitat comparisons of animal demography should always be placed in the context of long-term weather patterns, because habitat quality rankings based on density, reproduction, and survival may differ with environmental conditions. Physiological effects of environmental “crunches” on consumers may persist beyond the period of influence on food resources, reducing reproductive success and growth rates of future offspring.
Francisco J. Soto-Santiago
Full Text Available Background Studies directed at understanding the demography and population dynamics of corals are relatively scarce. This limits our understanding of both the dynamics of coral populations and our capacity to develop management and conservation initiatives directed at conserving such ecosystems. Methods From 2012 to 2014, we collected data on the growth, survival, and recruitment rates of two common Caribbean coral species, the stress-tolerant Orbicella annularis and the weedy Porites astreoides. A set of size-based population matrix model was developed for two localities in Northeastern Puerto Rico and used to estimate population growth rates (λ and determine the life cycle transition(s that contribute the most to spatiotemporal differences in λs. The model was parameterized by following the fate of 100 colonies of each species at the two sites for two years. Results Our data indicate that spatial variability in vital rates of both species was higher than temporal variability. During the first year, populations of O. annularis exhibited λs below equilibrium at Carlos Rosario (0.817 and Palomino (0.694, followed by a considerable decline at both sites during the second year (0.700 and 0.667. Populations of P. astreoides showed higher λs than O. annularis during the first census period at Carlos Rosario (0.898 and Palomino (0.894 with a decline at one of the sites (0.681 and 0.893 during the second census period. Colony fate in both species exhibited a significant interaction with respect to location but not to time (G2 = 20.96; df = 3 for O. annularis and G2 = 9.55; df = 3 for P. astreoides. Discussion The similar variability of λs as well as the similar survival rates for both species during the two-year census period (2012–2014 show similar variability on demographic patterns in space and time. Our results suggest that location rather than time is important for the resiliency in coral colonies. Also, P. astreoides will show higher
Ramadas, Amutha; Qureshi, Ahmad Munir; Dominic, Nisha Angela; Botross, Nevein Philip; Riad, Amgad; Thirunavuk Arasoo, Valliammai Jayanthi; Elangovan, Soman
Even after completion of conventional treatment, breast cancer survivors continue to exhibit a variety of psychological and physical symptoms, affecting their quality of life. The study aimed to investigate the relationship between socio-demography, medical characteristics and health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) of a sample of breast cancer survivors in Malaysia. This pilot cross-sectional survey was conducted among breast cancer survivors (n=40) who were members of Breast Cancer Support Group Centre Johor Bahru. A validated self-administered questionnaire was used to identify the relationships between socio-demography, medical characteristics and HR-QOL of the participants. Living with family and completion of treatment were significant predictive factors of self-rated QOL, while living with family and ever giving birth significantly predicted satisfaction with health and physical health. Psychological health had moderate correlations with number of children and early cancer stage. Survivors' higher personal income (>MYR4,500) was the only significant predictor of social relationship, while age, income more than MYR4,500 and giving birth significantly predicted environment domain score. The findings suggested the survivors coped better in all four HR-QOL domains if they were married, lived with family, had children and were employed.
Full Text Available The demographic traits of the solitary azooxanthellate scleractinian Leptopsammia pruvoti were determined in six populations on a sea surface temperature (SST gradient along the western Italian coasts. This is the first investigation of the growth and demography characteristics of an azooxanthellate scleractinian along a natural SST gradient. Growth rate was homogeneous across all populations, which spanned 7 degrees of latitude. Population age structures differed between populations, but none of the considered demographic parameters correlated with SST, indicating possible effects of local environmental conditions. Compared to another Mediterranean solitary scleractinian, Balanophyllia europaea, zooxanthellate and whose growth, demography and calcification have been studied in the same sites, L. pruvoti seems more tolerant to temperature increase. The higher tolerance of L. pruvoti, relative to B. europaea, may rely on the absence of symbionts, and thus the lack of an inhibition of host physiological processes by the heat-stressed zooxanthellae. However, the comparison between the two species must be taken cautiously, due to the likely temperature differences between the two sampling depths. Increasing research effort on determining the effects of temperature on the poorly studied azooxanthellate scleractinians may shed light on the possible species assemblage shifts that are likely to occur during the current century as a consequence of global climatic change.
Dudeck, Blair P; Clinchy, Michael; Allen, Marek C; Zanette, Liana Y
Fear itself (perceived predation risk) can affect wildlife demography, but the cumulative impact of fear on population dynamics is not well understood. Parental care is arguably what most distinguishes birds and mammals from other taxa, yet only one experiment on wildlife has tested fear effects on parental food provisioning and the repercussions this has for the survival of dependent offspring, and only during early-stage care. We tested the effect of fear on late-stage parental care of mobile dependent offspring, by locating radio-tagged Song Sparrow fledglings and broadcasting predator or non-predator playbacks in their vicinity, measuring their parent's behavior and their own, and tracking the offspring's survival to independence. Fear significantly reduced late-stage parental care, and parental fearfulness (as indexed by their reduction in provisioning when hearing predators) significantly predicted their offspring's condition and survival. Combining results from this experiment with that on early-stage care, we project that fear itself is powerful enough to reduce late-stage survival by 24%, and cumulatively reduce the number of young reaching independence by more than half, 53%. Experiments in invertebrate and aquatic systems demonstrate that fear is commonly as important as direct killing in affecting prey demography, and we suggest focusing more on fear effects and on offspring survival will reveal the same for wildlife. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Kamath, Pauline L; Getz, Wayne M
Demography, migration and natural selection are predominant processes affecting the distribution of genetic variation among natural populations. Many studies use neutral genetic markers to make inferences about population history. However, the investigation of functional coding loci, which directly reflect fitness, is critical to our understanding of species' ecology and evolution. Immune genes, such as those of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC), play an important role in pathogen recognition and provide a potent model system for studying selection. We contrasted diversity patterns of neutral data with MHC loci, ELA-DRA and -DQA, in two southern African plains zebra (Equus quagga) populations: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Results from neutrality tests, along with observations of elevated diversity and low differentiation across populations, supported previous genus-level evidence for balancing selection at these loci. Despite being low, MHC divergence across populations was significant and may be attributed to drift effects typical of geographically separated populations experiencing little to no gene flow, or alternatively to shifting allele frequency distributions driven by spatially variable and fluctuating pathogen communities. At the DRA, zebra exhibited geographic differentiation concordant with microsatellites and reduced levels of diversity in Etosha due to highly skewed allele frequencies that could not be explained by demography, suggestive of spatially heterogeneous selection and local adaptation. This study highlights the complexity in which selection affects immune gene diversity and warrants the need for further research on the ecological mechanisms shaping patterns of adaptive variation among natural populations.
Pauline L Kamath
Full Text Available Demography, migration and natural selection are predominant processes affecting the distribution of genetic variation among natural populations. Many studies use neutral genetic markers to make inferences about population history. However, the investigation of functional coding loci, which directly reflect fitness, is critical to our understanding of species' ecology and evolution. Immune genes, such as those of the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC, play an important role in pathogen recognition and provide a potent model system for studying selection. We contrasted diversity patterns of neutral data with MHC loci, ELA-DRA and -DQA, in two southern African plains zebra (Equus quagga populations: Etosha National Park, Namibia, and Kruger National Park, South Africa. Results from neutrality tests, along with observations of elevated diversity and low differentiation across populations, supported previous genus-level evidence for balancing selection at these loci. Despite being low, MHC divergence across populations was significant and may be attributed to drift effects typical of geographically separated populations experiencing little to no gene flow, or alternatively to shifting allele frequency distributions driven by spatially variable and fluctuating pathogen communities. At the DRA, zebra exhibited geographic differentiation concordant with microsatellites and reduced levels of diversity in Etosha due to highly skewed allele frequencies that could not be explained by demography, suggestive of spatially heterogeneous selection and local adaptation. This study highlights the complexity in which selection affects immune gene diversity and warrants the need for further research on the ecological mechanisms shaping patterns of adaptive variation among natural populations.
Scharf, Inon; Fischer-Blass, Birgit; Foitzik, Susanne
Natural communities are structured by intra-guild competition, predation or parasitism and the abiotic environment. We studied the relative importance of these factors in two host-social parasite ecosystems in three ant communities in Europe (Bavaria) and North America (New York, West Virginia). We tested how these factors affect colony demography, life-history and the spatial pattern of colonies, using a large sample size of more than 1000 colonies. The strength of competition was measured by the distance to the nearest competitor. Distance to the closest social parasite colony was used as a measure of parasitism risk. Nest sites (i.e., sticks or acorns) are limited in these forest ecosystems and we therefore included nest site quality as an abiotic factor in the analysis. In contrast to previous studies based on local densities, we focus here on the positioning and spatial patterns and we use models to compare our predictions to random expectations. Colony demography was universally affected by the size of the nest site with larger and more productive colonies residing in larger nest sites of higher quality. Distance to the nearest competitor negatively influenced host demography and brood production in the Bavarian community, pointing to an important role of competition, while social parasitism was less influential in this community. The New York community was characterized by the highest habitat variability, and productive colonies were clustered in sites of higher quality. Colonies were clumped on finer spatial scales, when we considered only the nearest neighbors, but more regularly distributed on coarser scales. The analysis of spatial positioning within plots often produced different results compared to those based on colony densities. For example, while host and slavemaker densities are often positively correlated, slavemakers do not nest closer to potential host colonies than expected by random. The three communities are differently affected by biotic and
Full Text Available Abstract Background Natural communities are structured by intra-guild competition, predation or parasitism and the abiotic environment. We studied the relative importance of these factors in two host-social parasite ecosystems in three ant communities in Europe (Bavaria and North America (New York, West Virginia. We tested how these factors affect colony demography, life-history and the spatial pattern of colonies, using a large sample size of more than 1000 colonies. The strength of competition was measured by the distance to the nearest competitor. Distance to the closest social parasite colony was used as a measure of parasitism risk. Nest sites (i.e., sticks or acorns are limited in these forest ecosystems and we therefore included nest site quality as an abiotic factor in the analysis. In contrast to previous studies based on local densities, we focus here on the positioning and spatial patterns and we use models to compare our predictions to random expectations. Results Colony demography was universally affected by the size of the nest site with larger and more productive colonies residing in larger nest sites of higher quality. Distance to the nearest competitor negatively influenced host demography and brood production in the Bavarian community, pointing to an important role of competition, while social parasitism was less influential in this community. The New York community was characterized by the highest habitat variability, and productive colonies were clustered in sites of higher quality. Colonies were clumped on finer spatial scales, when we considered only the nearest neighbors, but more regularly distributed on coarser scales. The analysis of spatial positioning within plots often produced different results compared to those based on colony densities. For example, while host and slavemaker densities are often positively correlated, slavemakers do not nest closer to potential host colonies than expected by random. Conclusions The
Polite, Blase; Conti, Rena M; Ward, Jeffery C
Treating patients with cancer with infused or injected oncolytics is a core component of outpatient oncology practice. Currently, practices purchase drugs and then bill insurers, colloquially called "buy and bill." Reimbursement for these drugs is the largest source of gross revenue for oncology practices, and as the prices of cancer drugs have grown over time, these purchases have had significant impact on the financial health of practices and pose a risk that jeopardizes the ability of many practices to operate and provide patient care. Medicare Part B spending on drugs is under political scrutiny because of federal spending pressures, and the margin between buy and bill, lowered to 6% by the Medicare Modernization Act and further decreased to 4.3% by sequestration, is a convenient and popular target of budgetary discussions and proposals, scored to save billions of dollars over 10-year budget windows for each percentage-point reduction. Alternatives to the buy-and-bill system have been proposed to include invoice pricing, least costly alternative reimbursement, bundling of drugs into episode-of-care payments, shifting Part B drugs to the Medicare Part D benefit, and revision of the failed Competitive Acquisition Program. This article brings the perspectives of policy makers, health care economists, and providers together to discuss this major challenge in oncology payment reform.
Jacob W. Malcom
Full Text Available Managers of large, complex wildlife conservation programs need information on the conservation status of each of many species to help strategically allocate limited resources. Oversimplifying status data, however, runs the risk of missing information essential to strategic allocation. Conservation status consists of two components, the status of threats a species faces and the species’ demographic status. Neither component alone is sufficient to characterize conservation status. Here we present a simple key for scoring threat and demographic changes for species using detailed information provided in free-form textual descriptions of conservation status. This key is easy to use (simple, captures the two components of conservation status without the cost of more detailed measures (sufficient, and can be applied by different personnel to any taxon (consistent. To evaluate the key’s utility, we performed two analyses. First, we scored the threat and demographic status of 37 species recently recommended for reclassification under the Endangered Species Act (ESA and 15 control species, then compared our scores to two metrics used for decision-making and reports to Congress. Second, we scored the threat and demographic status of all non-plant ESA-listed species from Florida (54 spp., and evaluated scoring repeatability for a subset of those. While the metrics reported by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS are often consistent with our scores in the first analysis, the results highlight two problems with the oversimplified metrics. First, we show that both metrics can mask underlying demographic declines or threat increases; for example, ∼40% of species not recommended for reclassification had changes in threats or demography. Second, we show that neither metric is consistent with either threats or demography alone, but conflates the two. The second analysis illustrates how the scoring key can be applied to a substantial set of species to
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok (Thailand).
This directory contains information on 39 institutions and 108 projects of research teaching and training in demography in Asia and the Pacific. Eight countries are represented: Australia, Bangladesh, Hong Kong, India, Iran, Japan, New Zealand, and Pakistan. The following information is given for each institution: name, address, person in charge,…
Groot, de G.A.; Zuidema, P.A.; Groot, H.; During, H.J.
• Premise of the study: Current environmental changes may affect the dynamics and viability of plant populations. This environmental sensitivity may differ between species of different ploidy level because polyploidization can influence life history traits. We compared the demography and climatic
Esque, T.C.; Reynolds, B.; DeFalco, L.A.; Waitman, B.A.; Hughson, Debra
The study of population change with regard to reproduction, seed dispersal, and germination, establishment, growth, and survival/mortality is known as demography. Demographic studies provide managers with information to assess future trends on the density, distribution, health, and population changes of importance or value, including Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia). Demographic research provides the potential to understand the combined impacts of climate change and land-use practices and determine if strategies for protecting important species are likely to succeed or fall short of management goals and will identify factors that have the potential to de-stabilize populations outside the realm of natural variation so that management strategies can be developed to circumvent challenges for key species, processes, and ecosystems. The National Park Service and US Geological Survey are collaborating to collect demographic information about the demographics of Joshua tree in the Mojave Desert.
Girard, Philippe; Takekawa, John Y.; Beissinger, Steven R.
The threatened California Black Rail lives under dense marsh vegetation, is rarely observed, flies weakly and has a highly disjunct distribution. The largest population of rails is found in 8–10 large wetlands in San Francisco Bay (SF Bay), but a population was recently discovered in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains (Foothills), within a wetland network comprised of over 200 small marshes. Using microsatellite and mitochondrial analyses, our objectives were to determine the origins, connectivity and demography of this recently-discovered population. Analyses of individuals from the Foothills (n = 31), SF Bay (n = 31), the Imperial Valley (n = 6) and the East Coast (n = 3), combined with rigorous power evaluations, provided valuable insights into past history and current dynamics of the species in Northern California that challenge conventional wisdom about the species. The Foothills and SF Bay populations have diverged strongly from the Imperial Valley population, even more strongly than from individuals of the East Coast subspecies. The data also suggest a historical presence of the species in the Foothills. The SF Bay and Foothills populations had similar estimated effective population size over the areas sampled and appeared linked by a strongly asymmetrical migration pattern, with a greater probability of movement from the Foothills to SF Bay than vice versa. Random mating was inferred in the Foothills, but local substructure among marshes and inbreeding were detected in SF Bay, suggesting different dispersal patterns within each location. The unexpected dimensions of Black Rail demography and population structure suggested by these analyses and their potential importance for management are discussed.
Phillips, C D; Hoffman, J I; George, J C; Suydam, R S; Huebinger, R M; Patton, J C; Bickham, J W
Patterns of genetic variation observed within species reflect evolutionary histories that include signatures of past demography. Understanding the demographic component of species' history is fundamental to informed management because changes in effective population size affect response to environmental change and evolvability, the strength of genetic drift, and maintenance of genetic variability. Species experiencing anthropogenic population reductions provide valuable case studies for understanding the genetic response to demographic change because historic changes in the census size are often well documented. A classic example is the bowhead whale, Balaena mysticetus, which experienced dramatic population depletion due to commercial whaling in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Consequently, we analyzed a large multi-marker dataset of bowhead whales using a variety of analytical methods, including extended Bayesian skyline analysis and approximate Bayesian computation, to characterize genetic signatures of both ancient and contemporary demographic histories. No genetic signature of recent population depletion was recovered through any analysis incorporating realistic mutation assumptions, probably due to the combined influences of long generation time, short bottleneck duration, and the magnitude of population depletion. In contrast, a robust signal of population expansion was detected around 70,000 years ago, followed by a population decline around 15,000 years ago. The timing of these events coincides to a historic glacial period and the onset of warming at the end of the last glacial maximum, respectively. By implication, climate driven long-term variation in Arctic Ocean productivity, rather than recent anthropogenic disturbance, appears to have been the primary driver of historic bowhead whale demography. PMID:23403722
Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer; Pruitt, Lori; Runge, Michael C.
Demographic characteristics of bats are often insufficiently described for modeling populations. In data poor situations, experts are often relied upon for characterizing ecological systems. In concert with the development of a matrix model describing Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) demography, we elicited estimates for parameterizing this model from 12 experts. We conducted this elicitation in two stages, requesting expert values for 12 demographic rates. These rates were adult and juvenile seasonal (winter, summer, fall) survival rates, pup survival in fall, and propensity and success at breeding. Experts were most in agreement about adult fall survival (3% Coefficient of Variation) and least in agreement about propensity of juveniles to breed (37% CV). The experts showed greater concordance for adult ( mean CV, adult = 6.2%) than for juvenile parameters ( mean CV, juvenile = 16.4%), and slightly more agreement for survival (mean CV, survival = 9.8%) compared to reproductive rates ( mean CV, reproduction = 15.1%). However, survival and reproduction were negatively and positively biased, respectively, relative to a stationary dynamic. Despite the species exhibiting near stationary dynamics for two decades prior to the onset of a potential extinction-causing agent, white-nose syndrome, expert estimates indicated a population decline of -11% per year (95% CI = -2%, -20%); quasi-extinction was predicted within a century ( mean = 61 years to QE, range = 32, 97) by 10 of the 12 experts. Were we to use these expert estimates in our modeling efforts, we would have errantly trained our models to a rapidly declining demography asymptomatic of recent demographic behavior. While experts are sometimes the only source of information, a clear understanding of the temporal and spatial context of the information being elicited is necessary to guard against wayward predictions.
Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea population (SB) are spending increased time on the coastal North Slope of Alaska between July and October (Gleason and Rode 2010). The duration spent on land by polar bears, satellite collared on the sea-ice in the spring, during the summer and fall has also increased (USGS, unpublished data; Figure 1). This change in polar bear ecology has relevance for human-bear interactions, subsistence harvest, prevalence of defense kills, and disturbance associated with existing land-based development [e.g., National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska (NPRA), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)], Native Alaskan communities, recreation (ANWR) and tourism (e.g., bear viewing in Kaktovik, AK). These activities have the potential to impact, in new ways, the status of the entire SB population. Concomitantly, the change in polar bear ecology will impact these human activities, and a base-line characterization of this phenomenon can better inform mitigation (e.g., industry permitting under the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act). In this study we aim to characterize the demography, habitat-use, and aspects of foraging ecology and health of polar bears spending fall on land. The SB population is characterized by a divergent-sea ice ecology, where polar bears typically spend most of the year on the sea-ice, even as the pack ice retreats northward, away from the coast, to its minimal extent in September (Amstrup et al. 2008; Durner et al. 2009). From 2000 – 2005, using coastal aerial surveys, Schliebe et al. (2008) observed between 3.7 and 8% of polar bears from SB (~ 60 – 120 of 1526, Regher et al. 2006) on land during the autumn. Sighting probability was not estimated in these surveys, and therefore the numbers represent minimum numbers of bears on land. Our analysis of USGS data suggest an annual average of 15% (± 3%, SE) of polar bears satellite-tagged on the spring-time sea ice (total n = 18 of 124
Morales-Ventura, Jesús; Nandini, S; Sarma, S S S; Castellanos-Páez, Maria Elena
Generally zooplankton growth is often limited by the quality of their algal diet. A cheaper common practice in aquaculture, is to culture algae with fertilizers; however, the demography of zooplankton when fed these algae has not yet been evaluated. We studied the population growth and life table demography of the rotifers Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens, and the cladoceran Moina macrocopa. For this, the algae Scenedesmus acutus or Chlorella vulgaris were cultured on defined (Bold's basal) medium or the commercial liquid fertilizer (Bayfolan). Experiments were conducted at one algal concentration 1.0 x 10(6) cells/mL of C. vulgaris or its equivalent dry weight of 0.5 x 10(6) cells/mL of S. acutus. The population dynamics were tested at 23 +/- 1 degrees C in 100 mL transparent jars, each with 50mL of the test medium, with an initial density of 0.5indiv/mL, for a total of 48 test jars (3 zooplankton 2 algal species x 2 culture media x 4 replicates). For the life table experiments with M. macrocopa, we introduced 10 neonates (vulgaris cultured in Bold medium. Regardless of the culture medium, Chlorella resulted in significantly higher gross and net reproductive rates for B. rubens than S. acutus diets. The reproductive rates of M. macrocopa were significantly higher in all the tested diets except when fed with S. acutus in Bold medium. The population increase rate, derived from growth experiments of A. fissa and B. rubens, ranged from 0.1-0.25/d and were significantly higher on C vulgaris cultured in liquid fertilizer as compared to the other diets. The growth rates of M. macrocopa ranged from 0.1 to 0.38/d, and were highest with diets of C. vulgaris cultured in Bold medium and S. acutus cultured in fertilizer. Thus, regardless of the culture medium used, the growth rates of the evaluated zooplankton species were higher with Chlorella than with Scenedesmus. The peak population density was highest (2 800ind/mL) for A. fissa fed Chlorella that was cultured on
Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.
Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse
Ashley J. Williams
Full Text Available Deepwater tropical fisheries provide an important source of income and protein to Pacific and Indian Ocean coastal communities who are highly dependent on fish for food security. The development of quantitative assessments and management strategies for these deepwater fisheries has been hindered by insufficient biological and fisheries data. We examine the age-specific demography of the pygmy ruby snapper Etelis carbunculus, an important target species in tropical deepwater fisheries, across 90° of longitude and 20° of latitude in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Our results show that growth of E. carbunculus varies significantly between oceans and sexes and across latitudes in both oceans. Estimates of natural and fishing mortality were similar between oceans, but higher for females than males in both oceans. Evidence of greater fishing pressure on females than males is likely due to the larger size-at-age of females compared to males, assuming that selectivity of the fishing gear is related directly to fish size. Sex ratios were significantly female biased in both oceans despite this species being gonochoristic, and maturity schedules were similar between sexes in the Pacific Ocean. This species exhibits a protracted spawning season from mid-spring to autumn (i.e., October to May in the Pacific Ocean. These results represent the first estimates of age-specific demographic parameters for E. carbunculus, and provide the foundation for the development of the first species-specific assessment models and harvest strategies for the species. Future stock assessment models for E. carbunculus should consider sex-specific demographic parameters and spatial variation in demography. Our results reveal substantial differences in biology between E. carbunculus and the giant ruby snapper E. sp., a cryptic congeneric species, and thus contribute to greater clarity in managing fisheries that are dependent on these two species. Furthermore, the improved
Fuentes, Sergio Armando; Gallegos, Margarita E; Mandujano, María C
Demography of Caulerpa paspaloides var. wudermanni (Bryopsidales: Caulerpaceae) in the coastal zone of Campeche, México. The subaquatic vegetation of Los Petenes, Campeche, Mexico, stands out due to its considerable floristic diversity, composed of a great variety of sea grasses and several species of the genus Caulerpa sp. This is a genus of ecological relevance, with the invasive species in the Mediterranean, with negative impact on several native sub-aquatic plants; nevertheless, little is known about the demography and population dynamics of Caulerpa species and their contribution to food webs. Thus the main objective of this study was to describe the demographics of Caulerpa paspaloides var. wudermanni, using the number of stolons, complete and incomplete fronds, the diameter of the stolons and the biomass. The information was used to determine the growth rate (lambda) of this species. The study was conducted in the Biosphere Reserve of Los Petenes, which is located in the Northwest of the state of Campeche. The submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the Petenes Biosphere consists of monospecific and mixed populations of seagrass species (Thalassia testudinum, Halodule wrightii and Syringodium filiforme). Although chlorophytes, brown algae and red algae, are fundamental elements in the specific composition of the SAV in Petenes, several species of Caulerpa are prominent because of their coverage and abundance. In May and June of 2010, significant differences in the quantity of stolons, their diameter, incomplete and complete fronds, and the size of the stolons and rhizomes, were observed. In 2010, the finite population growth rate (lambda) was 2.38 +/- 0.1571 for individuals and 1.20 +/- 0.1356 for the population, and in 2011 the values of lambda were 1.80 +/- 0.3608 and 1.35 +/- 0.1571, respectively. From these results it can be concluded that the population is growing; however, growth is controlled by biotic and abiotic factors. Despite there was no apparent
Lindkvist, Marie; Ivarsson, Anneli; Silfverdal, Sven Arne; Eurenius, Eva
It is well established that the pregnancy and the first years of life are important for future childhood health and body weight. Even though current evidence suggests that both parents are important for childhood health, the influence that parents' BMI and socio-demography has on toddlers' BMI has so far received little attention. This study aimed to increase our knowledge on the association between toddlers' and parents' BMI, in relation to family socio-demography. Further, the aim was to investigate the interaction between the mothers' and fathers' BMI in relation to their child's BMI. A total of 697 children with a median age of 18 months (range 16-24 months) participated in the study along with their mothers (n = 697) and fathers (n = 674). As regards representability, our parental sample had a lower proportion of immigrants and the parents were more gainfully employed compared to parents in the rest of Sweden (when the child was 18 months old). The parents completed a questionnaire on parental and child health. Data on parental weight, height, and socio-demographics were recorded along with the child's weight and height measured at an ordinary child health care visit. We used the thresholds for children's BMI that were recommended for surveillance by the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health in 2012 based on the WHO reference population. Among the toddlers, 33 % had a BMI above the WHO 85(th) percentile and 14 % had a BMI above the WHO 95(th) percentile. The probability of a toddler having a BMI above the WHO 95(th) percentile was significantly increased if either the mother or father was overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2)). Furthermore, we found a positive synergistic effect between the mother and father being overweight and their child having a BMI above the WHO 85(th) percentile. No associations were found between the toddlers' BMI and the family's socio-demographics, but there were associations between the parents' BMI and the family
Yuan, Zihao; Huang, Wei; Liu, Shikai; Xu, Peng; Dunham, Rex; Liu, Zhanjiang
The inference of historical demography of a species is helpful for understanding species' differentiation and its population dynamics. However, such inference has been previously difficult due to the lack of proper analytical methods and availability of genetic data. A recently developed method called Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) offers the capability for estimation of the trajectories of historical populations over considerable time periods using genomic sequences. In this study, we applied this approach to infer the historical demography of the common carp using samples collected from Europe, Asia and the Americas. Comparison between Asian and European common carp populations showed that the last glacial period starting 100 ka BP likely caused a significant decline in population size of the wild common carp in Europe, while it did not have much of an impact on its counterparts in Asia. This was probably caused by differences in glacial activities in East Asia and Europe, and suggesting a separation of the European and Asian clades before the last glacial maximum. The North American clade which is an invasive population shared a similar demographic history as those from Europe, consistent with the idea that the North American common carp probably had European ancestral origins. Our analysis represents the first reconstruction of the historical population demography of the common carp, which is important to elucidate the separation of European and Asian common carp clades during the Quaternary glaciation, as well as the dispersal of common carp across the world.
Full Text Available Ichthyophis bannanicus is the only caecilian species in China. In this study, the phylogeography and population demography of I. bannanicus were explored, based on the mitochondrial DNA genes (cyt b and ND2 and 15 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Altogether 158 individuals were collected from five populations in Yunnan province, Guangxi province, Guangdong province, and Northern Vietnam. Phylogeographical and population structure analysis identified either two groups (Xishuangbanna, Northern Vietnam-Yulin-Yangchun-Deqing or three groups (Xishuangbanna, Northern Vietnam-Yulin-Yangchun, and Deqing, indicating that the Red River and Pearl River systems may have acted as gene-flow barriers for I. bannanicus. Historical population expansion that happened 15-17 Ka ago was detected for mtDNA data and was possibly triggered by warmer weather after the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the Bayesian simulations of population history based on microsatellite data pinpointed population decline in all populations since 19,123 to 1,029 years ago, demonstrating a significant influence of anthropogenic habitat alteration on I. bannanicus.
Full Text Available Abstract Background It has been suggested that Plethodontid salamanders are excellent candidates for indicating ecosystem health. However, detailed, long-term data sets of their populations are rare, limiting our understanding of the demographic processes underlying their population fluctuations. Here we present a demographic analysis based on a 1996 - 2008 data set on an underground population of Speleomantes strinatii (Aellen in NW Italy. We utilised a Bayesian state-space approach allowing us to parameterise a stage-structured Lefkovitch model. We used all the available population data from annual temporary removal experiments to provide us with the baseline data on the numbers of juveniles, subadults and adult males and females present at any given time. Results Sampling the posterior chains of the converged state-space model gives us the likelihood distributions of the state-specific demographic rates and the associated uncertainty of these estimates. Analysing the resulting parameterised Lefkovitch matrices shows that the population growth is very close to 1, and that at population equilibrium we expect half of the individuals present to be adults of reproductive age which is what we also observe in the data. Elasticity analysis shows that adult survival is the key determinant for population growth. Conclusion This analysis demonstrates how an understanding of population demography can be gained from structured population data even in a case where following marked individuals over their whole lifespan is not practical.
Hernawati, Kuswari; Insani, Nur; Bambang S. H., M.; Nur Hadi, W.; Sahid
This research aims to mapping the 33 (thirty-three) provinces in Indonesia, based on the data on air, water and soil pollution, as well as social demography and geography data, into a clustered model. The method used in this study was unsupervised method that combines the basic concept of Kohonen or Self-Organizing Feature Maps (SOFM). The method is done by providing the design parameters for the model based on data related directly/ indirectly to pollution, which are the demographic and social data, pollution levels of air, water and soil, as well as the geographical situation of each province. The parameters used consists of 19 features/characteristics, including the human development index, the number of vehicles, the availability of the plant's water absorption and flood prevention, as well as geographic and demographic situation. The data used were secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Indonesia. The data are mapped into SOFM from a high-dimensional vector space into two-dimensional vector space according to the closeness of location in term of Euclidean distance. The resulting outputs are represented in clustered grouping. Thirty-three provinces are grouped into five clusters, where each cluster has different features/characteristics and level of pollution. The result can used to help the efforts on prevention and resolution of pollution problems on each cluster in an effective and efficient way.
Full Text Available The management of forest ecosystems to increase carbon storage is a global concern. Fire frequency has the potential to shift considerably in the future. These shifts may alter demographic processes and growth of tree species, and consequently carbon storage in forests. Examination of the sensitivity of forest carbon to the potential upper and lower extremes of fire frequency will provide crucial insight into the magnitude of possible change in carbon stocks associated with shifts in fire frequency. This study examines how tree biomass and demography of a eucalypt forest regenerating after harvest is affected by two experimentally manipulated extremes in fire frequency (i.e., ~3 year fire intervals vs. unburnt sustained over a 23 year period. The rate of post-harvest biomass recovery of overstorey tree species, which constituted ~90% of total living tree biomass, was lower within frequently burnt plots than unburnt plots, resulting in approximately 20% lower biomass in frequently burnt plots by the end of the study. Significant differences in carbon biomass between the two extremes in frequency were only evident after >15–20 years of sustained treatment. Reduced growth rates and survivorship of smaller trees on the frequently burnt plots compared to unburnt plots appeared to be driving these patterns. The biomass of understorey trees, which constituted ~10% of total living tree biomass, was not affected by frequent burning. These findings suggest that future shifts toward more frequent fire will potentially result in considerable reductions in carbon sequestration across temperate forest ecosystems in Australia.
Widyatmoko, Didik; Burgman, Mark A.; Guhardja, Edi; Mogea, Johanis P.; Walujo, Eko B.; Setiadi, Dede
Population status and demography of a population of the threatened lipstick palm Cyrtostachys renda in a peat swamp ecosystem of Kerumutan Reserve, Sumatra (one of the largest remaining populations) was documented at 16 different sites, covering a wide range of forest and habitat types, vegetation associations, and population sizes. Population sizes were dominated by suckers comprising 89% of the total population. Individuals with stem heights between 0 and 4 m (47.5%), stem diameters between 4 and 10 cm (82.0%), and leaf scar numbers between 0 and 60 (69.2%) dominated. Ages of individuals were estimated and used to fit a curvilinear relationship between age and stem height. Wild plants reach reproductive maturity within 25-30 years, or when they have stem heights in excess of 2.0 m, or when they have 15-25 leaf scars. They can survive more than 80 years. Cultivated plants appear to reproduce earlier and produce more seeds than wild plants. Individual growth was plant size-dependent with the adult stage being the most productive. Higher mortality was experienced by suckers, especially in continuously waterlogged conditions and locations with dense canopies. Sucker growth was faster than seedling growth, an adaptation that may allow the species to cope with periodically waterlogged conditions. Population abundances varied with habitat types; well-drained areas were the most suitable habitat. To conserve the most important remaining populations of the lipstick palm, it is crucial to protect well-drained sites in Kerumutan Reserve.
Neupane, Sudan Prasad; Bramness, Jørgen G; Lien, Lars
This study examined how alcohol use disorder (AUD) patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) differed from those without PTSD in terms of demography, drinking patterns and C-reactive protein, inflammatory cytokines, tryptophan metabolism parameters, and brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF). A consecutive sample (N = 187) of treatment-receiving AUD individuals were recruited from Nepalese facilities. They underwent fully structured psychiatric interviews. Serum levels of inflammatory cytokines [interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1 Receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra), IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), and interferon-gamma (IFN-γ)] were determined by a multiplex assay, kynurenine and tryptophan levels by high-performance liquid chromatography, and BDNF by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The prevalence of exposure to severe trauma and PTSD was 74% and 17%, respectively. PTSD comorbidity was not associated with age, gender, or socioeconomic status, but with co-occurring major depression, history of attempted suicide, earlier peak of drinking problems, higher drinking quantity and withdrawal symptoms, experiencing alcoholic blackouts, and drinking problems among parents. None of the assessed neuroimmune parameters was related to comorbid PTSD. The findings support routine trauma screening in AUD treatment samples and screening for risky drinking in trauma populations to help guide interventions. The expected aberrations in neuroimmune functioning may not be found when examined in a sample with multiple psychiatric morbidities.
Kessler, Matthew J; Hernández Pacheco, Raisa; Rawlins, Richard G; Ruiz-Lambrides, Angelina; Delgado, Diana L; Sabat, Alberto M
Tetanus was a major cause of mortality in the free-ranging population of rhesus monkeys on Cayo Santiago prior to 1985 when the entire colony was given its first dose of tetanus toxoid. The immediate reduction in mortality that followed tetanus toxoid inoculation (TTI) has been documented, but the long-term demographic effects of eliminating tetanus infections have not. This study uses the Cayo Santiago demographic database to construct comparative life tables 12 years before, and 12 years after, TTI. Life tables and matrix projection models are used to test for differences in: (i) survival among all individuals as well as among social groups, (ii) long-term fitness of the population, (iii) age distribution, (iv) reproductive value, and (v) life expectancy. A retrospective life table response experiment (LTRE) was performed to determine which life cycle transition contributed most to observed changes in long-term fitness of the population post-TTI. Elimination of clinical tetanus infections through mass inoculation improved the health and well-being of the monkeys. It also profoundly affected the population by increasing survivorship and long-term fitness, decreasing the differences in survival rates among social groups, shifting the population's age distribution towards older individuals, and increasing reproductive value and life expectancy. These findings are significant because they demonstrate the long-term effects of eradicating a major cause of mortality at a single point in time on survival, reproduction, and overall demography of a naturalistic population of primates. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Full Text Available Harlequin frogs (Bufonidae: Atelopus are a species-rich genus of Neotropical toads that have experienced disproportionately severe population declines and extinctions caused by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd. The genus Atelopus is of high conservation concern, but relatively little is known about the population dynamics and life history of the majority of species. We examined the demography of one population of Atelopus zeteki and two populations of A. varius in central Panama using three to six years of mark-recapture data collected prior to and during an outbreak of Bd. We estimated male survival probabilities prior to the arrival of Bd and sex-specific population sizes for these three populations using state-space Bayesian population models. Prior to the arrival of Bd, monthly apparent survival probabilities were higher for A. varius males than for A. zeteki males, and recaptures among years were low in both species. Abundance of both species varied over time and declined rapidly after the arrival of Bd. Male densities were generally greater than female densities, though female densities were higher or equivalent to males after the arrival of Bd. Estimates of survival and abundance over time may be explained by differences in the use of stream habitat by the two sexes and three populations, both during and between breeding seasons. These estimates provide key baseline population information that can be used to inform reintroductions from captive assurance colonies and studies of extant Atelopus populations as part of conservation and management programs.
Kantor, G.; Kantor, G.; Gerard, G.P.; Kantor, G.; Bey, P.; Huguet, F.; Toledano, A.; Lafond, C.; Quero, L.; Servagi, S.
During the 5 past national courses organised by the French society of radiation oncology (SFRO), three different types of survey were performed to analyse demography, motivations and quality of training of the young specialists. During the 5 past years, 50 radiation oncologists were training for the whole country (about 15 per year were graduated). A recent increase the number of young specialists is observed with a total number of 50 in 2000 to 75 in 2005. Nevertheless, the number of young specialists is dramatically insufficient and exposes for the future to an important demographic crisis. Analysis of motivations of choice for radiation oncology confirms the influence of a practical stage of oncology during the second cycle of the medical studies for 60% of the young specialists. Analysis of practical and theoretical training was performed according to the point of view and living experiences of the students. On the other hand, informations from teachers were less complete. Some needs are emphasised as: 1) the quality of the follow during the training (importance of the recent implementation of a logbook); 2) importance of theoretical and practical training at the radiotherapy department: 3) help and incentive for research and scientific publication. (author)
Full Text Available Generally zooplankton growth is often limited by the quality of their algal diet. A cheaper common practice in aquaculture, is to culture algae with fertilizers; however, the demography of zooplankton when fed these algae has not yet been evaluated. We studied the population growth and life table demography of the rotifers Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens, and the cladoceran Moina macrocopa. For this, the algae Scenedesmus acutus or Chlorella vulgaris were cultured on defined (Bold’s basal medium or the commercial liquid fertilizer (Bayfolan. Experiments were conducted at one algal concentration 1.0x10(6cells/mL of C. vulgaris or its equivalent dry weight of 0.5x10(6cells/mL of S. acutus. The population dynamics were tested at 23±1ºC in 100mL transparent jars, each with 50mL of the test medium, with an initial density of 0.5indiv/mL, for a total of 48 test jars (3 zooplankton 2 algal species x 2 culture media x 4 replicates. For the life table experiments with M. macrocopa, we introduced 10 neonates (<24h old into each test jar containing the specific algal type and concentration. For the rotifer experiments, we set 5mL tubes with one neonate each and 10 replicates for each algal species and culture medium. We found that the average rotifer life span was not influenced by the diet, but for M. macrocopa fed S. acutus cultured in Bold’s medium, the average lifespan was significantly lower than with the other diets. The gross and net reproductive rates of A. fissa (ranging from 18-36 offspring per female were significantly higher for C. vulgaris cultured in Bold medium. Regardless of the culture medium, Chlorella resulted in significantly higher gross and net reproductive rates for B. rubens than S. acutus diets. The reproductive rates of M. macrocopa were significantly higher in all the tested diets except when fed with S. acutus in Bold medium. The population increase rate, derived from growth experiments of A. fissa and B. rubens
Full Text Available Generally zooplankton growth is often limited by the quality of their algal diet. A cheaper common practice in aquaculture, is to culture algae with fertilizers; however, the demography of zooplankton when fed these algae has not yet been evaluated. We studied the population growth and life table demography of the rotifers Anuraeopsis fissa and Brachionus rubens, and the cladoceran Moina macrocopa. For this, the algae Scenedesmus acutus or Chlorella vulgaris were cultured on defined (Bold’s basal medium or the commercial liquid fertilizer (Bayfolan. Experiments were conducted at one algal concentration 1.0x10(6cells/mL of C. vulgaris or its equivalent dry weight of 0.5x10(6cells/mL of S. acutus. The population dynamics were tested at 23±1ºC in 100mL transparent jars, each with 50mL of the test medium, with an initial density of 0.5indiv/mL, for a total of 48 test jars (3 zooplankton 2 algal species x 2 culture media x 4 replicates. For the life table experiments with M. macrocopa, we introduced 10 neonates (Generalmente el crecimiento del zooplancton está a menudo limitado por la calidad de su dieta de algas. La demografía del zooplancton durante la alimentación con algas no ha sido estudiada, a pesar de que el cultivo de algas con fertilizantes es una práctica económica común en acuacultura. Se analizó la demografía de Anuraeopsis fissa y Brachionus rubens (rotíferos y Moina macrocopa (cladóceros, alimentados con las algas verdes Scenedesmus acutus o Chlorella vulgaris cultivadas en medio Bold o fertilizante líquido comercial (Bayfolan, de Bayer. En los rotíferos no se observaron diferencias significativas en el promedio de vida, sin embargo, este parámetro en M. macrocopa con S. acutus cultivada en Medio Bold, fue significativamente menor que en otras dietas. Las tasas de reproducción bruta y neta de A. fissa fueron significativamente mayores con C. vulgaris cultivada en medio Bold, que con el fertilizante; estas tasas en B
Garcia Martinez, Florentino
Het congres over de apocalyptiek in 1979 te Uppsala markeerde ongetwijfeld het einde van een belangrijke fase in de studie van dit complexe verschijnsel. Daar kwam wat ik heb genoemd
Vaught-Mijares, R. M.; Hillman, A. L.; Abbott, M. B.; Werne, J. P.; Arkush, E.
Drought and flood events are thought to have shaped the ways in which Andean societies have adapted to life in the Titicaca Basin region, particularly with regard to land use practices and settlement patterns. This study examines a small lake in the region, Laguna Orurillo. Water isotopes suggest that the lake primarily loses water through evaporation, making it hydrologically sensitive. In 2015, a 3.4 m overlapping sediment record was collected and inspected for evidence of shallow water facies and erosional unconformities to reconstruct paleohydrology. Sediment core chronology was established using 7 AMS radiocarbon dates and 210Pb dating and indicates that the core spans 5000 years. Additional sediment core measurements include magnetic susceptibility, bulk density, organic/carbonate content, and XRD. Results show a pronounced change in sediment composition from brittle, angular salt deposits to massive calcareous silt and clay around 5000 years BP. Multiple transitions from clay to sand show potential lake level depressions at 1540, 2090, and 2230, yr BP that are supported by a drastic increase in carbonate composition from 2760-1600 yr BP. Additional shallow-water periods may be reflected in the presence of rip-up clasts from 4000 to 3000 yr BP. These early interpretations align well with existing hydrologic records from Lake Titicaca. In order to develop a more detailed climate and land use record, isotope analyses of authigenic carbonate minerals using δ13C and δ18O and leaf waxes using δD are being developed. Ultimately, this record will be linked with records from nearby Lagunas Arapa and Umayo. Additional proxies for human population such as fecal 5β-stanols and proximal anthropologic surveys will be synthesized to contribute to a regional understanding of Holocene climate variability and human demography in the Peruvian Altiplano.
Olufemi Emmanuel Idowu
Full Text Available Introduction: Surgically treated intracranial suppurations (ICS are uncommon, life-threatening neurosurgical emergencies. They can result from complication of chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM and bacterial rhinosinusitis (BRS. The objective of this study was to know the frequency of BRS and CSOM and relate it to its rare complication of surgically treated ICS while also describing the demography, type and outcome of ICS that resulted from BRS and CSOM. Materials and Methods: All patients that presented to the Otorhinolaryngological department and Neurosurgical unit of the same institution with clinical and radiological features of CSOM, BRS, and ICS were prospectively studied over a 5-year period. Patients were followed up for a minimum of 3 months. Results: Two thousand, two hundred and seventy-nine patients presented during the 5-year study period. Of all these patients, 1511 had CSOM (66.3% and 768 (33.7% presented with features of BRS. Eleven (0.73% had ICS complicating their CSOM while 8 (1.04% cases of surgically treated ICS followed BRS. Bacterial rhinosinusitis was not more likely to lead to ICS (P = 0.4348. The Odds ratio (OR of a child ≤ 18 years of age with CSOM developing ICS was 5.24 (95% Confidence interval 1.13-24.34; P = 0.0345, while it was 7.60 (95% Confidence interval 1.52-37.97; P = 0.0134 for children with BRS. Conclusions: The most common type of ICS complicating CSOM and BRS was brain abscess and subdural empyema, respectively. Children are more prone to develop surgical ICS following CSOM and BRS. The proportion of males that had ICS was higher in both CSOM and BRS patients. Optimal outcome is achieved in patients that presented with GCS of 13 and above.
di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.
Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.
Katrínardóttir, Borgný; Alves, José A; Sigurjónsdóttir, Hrefna; Hersteinsson, Páll; Gunnarsson, Tómas G
Distinct preference of species for habitats is most often driven by long term differences in demographic rates between habitats. Estimating variation in those rates is key for developing successful conservation strategies. Stochastic events can interact with underlying variation in habitat quality in regulating demography but the opportunities to explore such interactions are rare. Whimbrels in Iceland show a strong preference for sparsely vegetated riverplains. Such habitats in Iceland face various threats, e.g., climate change, river regulation and spread of alien plant species. In this study we compared demographic parameters of breeding Whimbrels between riverplains and other habitats before, during and after volcanic eruption events to estimate the importance of the habitats for the species and the effect of ash deposit on breeding success. We found that an estimated minimum of 23% of the Icelandic population of Whimbrels and c. 10% of the world population of the species breed in riverplain habitats in Iceland. Whimbrels bred consistently at much higher densities in riverplain habitats than in other habitats and riverplains also had higher densities of pairs with fledglings although the proportion of successful breeders was similar between habitats. Predation by livestock may have had a considerable negative effect on breeding success on our study sites. Breeding was negatively affected by the volcanic activity, probably through the effects of ash on the invertebrate food supply, with breeding success being gradually worse closer to the eruption. Breeding success was equally affected by volcanism across habitats which differed in underlying habitat quality. This study gives an example of how populations can be regulated by factors which operate at different spatial scales, such as local variation in habitat quality and stochastic events which impact larger areas.
Longo, M.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.; Morton, D. C.
Amazon deforestation has declined over the last decade, yet forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation continue to impact forest carbon stocks and fluxes. The magnitude of this impact remains uncertain, and observation-based studies are often limited by short time intervals or small study areas. To better understand the long-term impact of forest degradation and recovery, we have been developing a framework that integrates field plot measurements and airborne lidar surveys into an individual- and process-based model (Ecosystem Demography model, ED). We modeled forest dynamics for three forest landscapes in the Amazon with diverse degradation histories: conventional and reduced-impact logging, logging and burning, and multiple burns. Based on the initialization with contemporary forest structure and composition, model results suggest that degraded forests rapidly recover (30 years) water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth, even at sites that were affected by multiple fires. However, degraded forests maintained different carbon stocks and fluxes even after 100 years without further disturbances, because of persistent differences in forest structure and composition. Recurrent disturbances may hinder the recovery of degraded forests. Simulations using a simple fire model entirely dependent on environmental controls indicate that the most degraded forests would take much longer to reach biomass typical of old-growth forests, because drier conditions near the ground make subsequent fires more intense and more recurrent. Fires in tropical forests are also closely related to nearby human activities; while results suggest an important feedback between fires and the microenvironment, additional work is needed to improve how the model represents the human impact on current and future fire regimes. Our study highlights that recovery of degraded forests may act as an important carbon sink, but efficient recovery depends on controlling future disturbances.
Rojas-Sandoval, Julissa; Meléndez-Ackerman, Elvia
The impact of exotic species around the world is among the primary threats to the conservation and management of rare and endangered species. In this work we asked whether or not the presence of the African grass Megathyrsus maximus on Mona Island was associated with negative impacts on the demography of the endangered Caribbean cactus Harrisia portoricensis. To address this question we performed field observations where we compared demographic data collected at un-manipulated areas invaded by Megathyrsus with un-manipulated areas non-invaded by this exotic grass. Additionally, demographic data were also collected in areas in which we removed the exotic grass biomass using two alternative treatments: complete and partial grass removal. Results demonstrated that the presence of Megathyrsus has negative effects on demographic parameters of Harrisia at various stages throughout its life cycle. In general, the survival, growth, and reproduction of Harrisia plants were depressed under the presence of Megathyrsus. Growth and survival of seedlings and juveniles of Harrisia were more impacted by the presence of Megathyrsus than adult performance and seedling recruitment only occurred in areas with grass absence. Our combined results suggest that modifications of the micro-environment by the presence of Megathyrsus may add an additional level of vulnerability to the persistence of Harrisia, and as such this factor must be considered when designing conservation strategies for this endangered species. This study highlights the need for a greater emphasis on understanding the interactions between invasive grass species and native cacti, and the importance of such information in designing conservation strategies for cacti species elsewhere.
Full Text Available Encouraged by her masters at the Annales School—historians Fernand Braudel and Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, demographer Louis Henry from Institut National d’Etudes Démographiques (INED, and sociologist Peter Laslett from Cambridge—the author, a baby-boomer, experienced major socio-economic and cultural changes in family behavior and reproduction models induced in Europe by the revolutionary events of 1968 in Paris. In this essay, she presents a personal account of the history of historical demography in Europe, between 1967 and 1975, in other words at the end of the post-WWII Glorious Thirty period (1945-1975. She then became involved in the development of a global network that had been formed in 1960 in Stockholm, linking professional national and international associations and academic units in Historical Demography and History of the Family. This network spread quickly overseas during the following decades. The period under study was marked by the beginning of important behavioral changes in socio-economic contexts and attitudes to family life, gender and human reproduction. These major shifts were called the Second Demographic Transition by two Dutch demographers, inspired by French scholars. The year 1976 is identified as a major turning point for Historical Demography as a discipline, mostly through the creation of the Social Science History Association and the Journal of Family History, which brought new theoretical approaches and methodologies. A generation of productive researchers appeared with the end of the 20th century and the new millennium. They took advantage of an increasingly digitalized world to widely disseminate a rich store of knowledge about past population behavior gathered since the 1960s by their predecessors.
Full Text Available Severe fragmentation is a typical fate of native remnant habitats in cities, and urban wildlife with limited dispersal ability are predicted to lose genetic variation in isolated urban patches. However, little information exists on the characteristics of urban green spaces required to conserve genetic variation. In this study, we examine whether isolation in New York City (NYC parks results in genetic bottlenecks in white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus, and test the hypotheses that park size and time since isolation are associated with genetic variability using nonlinear regression and information-theoretic model selection. White-footed mice have previously been documented to exhibit male-biased dispersal, which may create disparities in genetic variation between males and females in urban parks. We use genotypes of 18 neutral microsatellite data and four different statistical tests to assess this prediction. Given that sex-biased dispersal may create disparities between population genetic patterns inferred from bi- vs. uni-parentally inherited markers, we also sequenced a 324 bp segment of the mitochondrial D-loop for independent inferences of historical demography in urban P. leucopus. We report that isolation in urban parks does not necessarily result in genetic bottlenecks; only three out of 14 populations in NYC parks exhibited a signature of a recent bottleneck at 18 neutral microsatellite loci. Mouse populations in larger urban parks, or parks that have been isolated for shorter periods of time, also do not generally contain greater genetic variation than populations in smaller parks. These results suggest that even small networks of green spaces may be sufficient to maintain the evolutionary potential of native species with certain characteristics. We also found that isolation in urban parks results in weak to nonexistent sex-biased dispersal in a species known to exhibit male-biased dispersal in less fragmented environments. In
Kasakoff, A B; Adams, J W
study focuses on questioning the analytical units in historical demography and suggests closer study of migrants and the disaggregation of ages at vital events in the study of such complex processes as modernization.
Rinzin, Karma; Tenzin, Tenzin; Robertson, Ian
Understanding the demography of domestic dogs is essential to plan the dog population management and rabies control program. In this study, we estimated the owned and stray dog population and the proportion of owned dogs that are free-roaming in Bhutan. For this, a cross-sectional household surveys were conducted in six districts (both urban and rural areas) and two border towns in southern Bhutan. The population estimation was done by extrapolation of the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person, whilst mark-resight survey was conducted to estimate the proportion of owned dogs that were free-roaming. A total of 1,301 (rural:585; urban:716) respondents (one per household) were interviewed of which 173 households (24.4%) in urban areas owned 237 dogs whilst 238 households (40.8%) in rural areas owned 353 dogs. The mean number of dogs per dog owning household was estimated to be 1.44 (urban:1.37 dogs; rural:1.48 dogs) and dogs per household was estimated to be 0.45 (urban:0.33; rural:0.60). The dog: human ratio was 1:16.30 (0.06 dogs per person) in urban areas and 1:8.43 (0.12 dogs per person) in rural areas. The total owned dog population based on the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person were estimated to be 65,312 and 71,245 in the country, respectively. The male: female ratio of the owned dog was 1.31:1 in urban areas and 2.05:1 in rural areas. Majority of the dogs were local non-descript breeds in both urban (60.8%) and rural (78%) areas, and the most common source was acquisition from friends or family (44.7%). The stray dog population in Bhutan was estimated to be 48,379 (urban:22,772; rural:25,607). Of the total estimated owned dog population in the two border towns, the proportion that were found free-roaming was estimated to be 31%. The different dog population estimation methods were compared and discussed in this paper. This study generated baseline data on the demographic patterns of the owned and stray dogs in Bhutan which
Tada, Obert; Muchenje, Voster; Dzama, Kennedy
The objective of the study was to determine the herd demography and reproductive efficiency of the Nguni cattle in village-owned and group-owned enterprises under low-input communal production systems. Data on husbandry practices, reason of cattle entry/exist, herd structure, bulling rates, breeding females, age at first calving and calving interval were obtained from 22 village-owned and 19 group-owned enterprises in a cross-sectional survey of an ecologically controlled low-input cattle production system. Descriptive statistics and chi-square tests of association were computed on enterprise ownership patterns, husbandry practices and herd demography. An AN(C)OVA was used to determine significant factors affecting herd structure, mortality, age at first calving and calving interval in the enterprises. Village-owned enterprises had higher (p 0.05). Significant differences were observed on the calving interval (p bulling rate was higher in village-owned enterprises, while the proportion of breeding females was higher in group-owned enterprises. Farmers with a college education had Nguni animals with the shortest calving interval. It was concluded that group-owned enterprises had significantly better calving intervals, mortality rates and overall herd structure than village-owned enterprises.
Buvinic, Mayra; Gupta, Monica Da; Casabonne, Ursula
Much has been written on gender inequality and how it affects fertility and mortality outcomes as well as economic outcomes. What is not well understood is the role of gender inequality, embedded in the behavior of the family, the market, and society, in mediating the impact of demographic processes on economic outcomes. This article reviews the empirical evidence on the possible economic impacts of gender inequalities that work by exacerbating demographic stresses associated with different d...
Ladner, Matthew; Lips, Dan
A major debate among education reformers over how best to reduce the achievement gap broke out during the 2008 presidential campaign. Most advocates on both sides backed Barack Obama, but they urged him to pursue different policies. The Education Equality Project (EEP) supported a continuation of accountability and other school-focused reforms.…
Menopause marks a time of dramatic hormonal and often social change for women. Both risk factors and health needs are likely to change as women pass through menopause. This paper examines the demographic characteristics of the world population of menopausal and post-menopausal women, and also examines the implication of menopause for mortality risks. The numbers of women involved are large. Using age 50 as a proxy for menopause, about 25 million women pass through menopause each year, and we estimate that in 1990 there were 467 million post-menopausal women in the world, with an average age of about 60 years. By 2030, the world population of menopausal and postmenopausal women is projected to increase to 1.2 billion, with 47 million new entrants each year. The mortality implications of menopause are also substantial. Ratios of female to male mortality risks from all causes and from all major cause groups except neoplasms decline to low levels around menopause or shortly thereafter, and then rise again to near unity. This pattern is taken as evidence that the female reproductive period is broadly protective of health, but that this protection disappears after menopause. The main protective effect is through reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality, partially offset by increased risks of cancer mortality, particularly of the breast and endometrium.
O'Neill, Dan G; Baral, Lauren; Church, David B; Brodbelt, Dave C; Packer, Rowena M A
Despite its Gallic name, the French Bulldog is a breed of both British and French origin that was first recognised by The Kennel Club in 1906. The French Bulldog has demonstrated recent rapid rises in Kennel Club registrations and is now (2017) the second most commonly registered pedigree breed in the UK. However, the breed has been reported to be predisposed to several disorders including ocular, respiratory, neurological and dermatological problems. The VetCompass™ Programme collates de-identified clinical data from primary-care veterinary practices in the UK for epidemiological research. Using VetCompass™ clinical data, this study aimed to characterise the demography and common disorders of the general population of French Bulldogs under veterinary care in the UK. French Bulldogs comprised 2228 (0.49%) of 445,557 study dogs under veterinary care during 2013. Annual proportional birth rates showed that the proportional ownership of French Bulldog puppies rose steeply from 0.02% of the annual birth cohort attending VetCompass™ practices in 2003 to 1.46% in 2013. The median age of the French Bulldogs overall was 1.3 years (IQR 0.6-2.5, range 0.0-13.0). The most common colours of French Bulldogs were brindle (solid or main) (32.36%) and fawn (solid or main) (29.9%). Of the 2228 French Bulldogs under veterinary care during 2013, 1612 (72.4%) had at least one disorder recorded. The most prevalent fine-level precision disorders recorded were otitis externa (14.0%, 95% CI: 12.6-15.5), diarrhoea (7.5%, 95% CI: 6.4-8.7), conjunctivitis (3.2%, 95% CI: 2.5-4.0), nails overlong (3.1%, 95% CI% 2.4-3.9) and skin fold dermatitis (3.0%, 95% CI% 2.3-3.8). The most prevalent disorder groups were cutaneous (17.9%, 95% CI: 16.3-19.6), enteropathy (16.7%, 95% CI: 15.2-18.3), aural (16.3%, 95% CI: 14.8-17.9), upper respiratory tract (12.7%, 95% CI: 11.3-14.1) and ophthalmological (10.5%, 95% CI: 9.3-11.9). Ownership of French Bulldogs in the UK is rising steeply. This means
Sarfraz, A.H.; Masood, F.
This study highlights which injury has greatest burden, how frequent are the injuries of foot and ankle areas, which is an extremely neglected specialty in orthopedics and also the importance of proper diagnosis, classification of fractures, appropriate pre-operative planning and timely conservative as well as surgical intervention of ankle and foot fractures that resulted in a satisfactory outcome Despite the fact, foot and ankle is the most important locomotor unit of our lower limb, there have been few studies addressing the problem and treatment outcome of such fractures. Objective: To determine the occurrence, demography and pathomorphology of ankle and foot fractures, also evaluation of treatment outcome of calcaneal fractures. Methodology: This was a longitudinal interventional study which dealt with acute traumatic ankle and foot fracture patients coming to Accident and Emergency Department of MHL, DOST unit 1, with inclusion and exclusion criteria clearly defined. Results: Total 100 patients were included in the study. Mean age of patients was 35.71+-13.60 years. Minimum age of patients was 14 and maximum age of patients was 70 years respectively. Gender distribution of patients shows that 15 patients were female and the remaining 85 patients were male. Male patients were greater in number as compared to female patients ie. M: F, 6:1. Mechanism of the injury showed that there were 48 patients who suffered from RTA , 37 patients had trauma due to fall from height, 6 patients had industrial injuries, 5 patients had Fire Arm Injury, and 2 patients had injuries due to domestic activity, 1 had trauma due to sports activity and 1 had injury due to agricultural work. There were 41 patients with fractures of calcaneum and out of which 5 had bilateral fracture calcaneum. They were classified according to CT based Sanders classification. Out of these 22 patients were of Sanders type III, 12 patients were of Sander type II, 5 patients were of Sander type IV, 2
Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.
The inclusion of dynamic vegetation demography in Earth System Models (ESMs) has been identified as a critical step in moving ESMs towards more realistic representations of plant ecology and the processes that govern climatically important fluxes of carbon, energy, and water. Successful application of dynamic vegetation models, and process-based approaches to simulate plant demography, succession, and response to disturbances without climate envelopes at the global scale is a challenging endeavor. We integrated demographic processes using the Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the newly developed ACME Land Model (ALM). We then use an ALM-FATES globally gridded simulation for the first time to investigate plant functional type (PFT) distributions and dynamic turnover rates. Initial global simulations successfully include six interacting and competing PFTs (ranging from tropical to boreal, evergreen, deciduous, needleleaf and broadleaf); including more PFTs is planned. Global maps of net primary productivity, leaf area index, and total vegetation biomass by ALM-FATES matched patterns and values when compared to CLM4.5-BGC and MODIS estimates. We also present techniques for PFT parameterization based on the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), field based turnover rates, improved PFT groupings based on trait-tradeoffs, and improved representation of multiple canopy positions. Finally, we applied the improved ALM-FATES model at a central Amazon tropical and western U.S. temperate sites and demonstrate improvements in predicted PFT size- and age-structure and regional distribution. Results from the Amazon tropical site investigate the ability and magnitude of a tropical forest to act as a carbon sink by 2100 with a doubling of CO2, while results from the temperate sites investigate the response of forest mortality with increasing droughts.
Full Text Available In the last years, the integration of young people into the labour market has become more difficult, being accomplished in a gradual, complex and less uniform way comparatively to the years prior to the crises. The rate of youth employment is much lower than among other categories of population, and the insertion of young people on the labour market has become a difficult process, both in Romania and in the European Union, process that is characterised especially through raising the period of time passed from the moment of graduating from school to the moment of finding the first â€˜significantâ€™ workplace (for at least six months and with a length of at least 20 hours of work per week, preferably, from qualitative point of view, in accordance to the qualification obtained. In this context, in order to analyse the way in which the integration of young people into the labour market is done in Romania, the present paper makes, in the first part, a short theoretic incursion regarding the main theories referring to youth employment, transition from school to active life and, more specific, transition from higher education to employment, the main determinants of the transition from school to active life and the way in which the process is affected by the tendencies on the labour market, the ways of measurement and evaluation used up to the present etc. In the second part, the paper tries to propose a research methodology of the transition from higher education in the field of economics to employment, analyse that will be carried out in the project called â€žThe practice of economist students. An inter-regional partnership on the labour market between universities and the business environment" (PRACTeam in the purpose of creating policy and strategy recommendations for diminishing the difficulties felt by young people in the process of transition from school to active life.
A survey is presented for 51 oil fields in the North Sea belonging to the United Kingdom, 17 belonging to Norway, 4 belonging to the Netherlands and 7 belonging to Denmark. Similarly data is presented for 32 gas fields belonging to the United Kingdom, 5 belonging to Norway, 42 belonging to the Netherlands, and 1 belonging to Denmark. The information given in the surveys includes the original recoverable reserves, remaining reserves, water depth, gravity, sulphur content, discovery date, start-up date, participants and production. (U.K.)
The article deals with the peculiarities of American professional undergraduate and graduate training in economics. The analysis of documents, scientific and educational literature demonstrates the diversity of the US training courses and combinations of disciplines in economics. It has been defined that leading position of the USA in the world…
Woods, Stephen C
An important observation of the experiments of George Collier is that animals normally prefer to maintain their body weight by eating a large number of small meals each day. However, as the effort to obtain access to food increases, the animals adapt by changing to a schedule of eating a small number of large meals each day. A strong implication of this is that there is a hidden cost to eating large meals, and this is the basis of the eating paradox that states that although food is a necessary commodity, the act of ingesting it poses certain metabolic problems for animals. Experiments on cephalic insulin secretion, conditioned insulin secretion and meal feeding are discussed to make the point that the economy demonstrated by rats in Collier's paradigm is dictated in part by predictions of the eating paradox. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.
Henke, K D
Although the health care system has to deal with huge financial problems one cannot neglect that this labour-intensive service branch creates the most jobs with social security obligations. Corrective strategies will have to increase the orientation of health care to patients' needs which requires better information and more decision-making autonomy for the insured people as well as a maximising of efficiency. Competition needs to be strengthened in order to improve quality and reduce costs. This requires more contractual freedom for insurance funds and a dismantling of the current monopolistic structures. Finally, adequate remuneration schedules and patients' individual responsibility play a major role to meet the future challenges in the European internal market.
Roč. 56, 11-12 (2006), s. 522-533 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : journal publications * impact factor * research Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.190, year: 2006
This paper, is an amended version of a talk given to The British Institute of Radiology at a meeting on ''Dosimetry and Risks to Patients in Radiopharmaceutical Investigations''. It explains cost-benefit analysis (distinguishing it from cost-effectiveness analysis) and suggests various ways of trying to place a value on human life in order to use cost-benefit analysis as a practical tool of decision-making in policy areas where at least part of the benefit is to be measured in terms of lives saved. The paper suggests that it is important to decide not only who is to value life but also whose perceptions of risk of death are to be deemed relevant. A practical example in the use of life values is presented for the case of mammography in breast cancer screening. (author)
The environmental policy of the Federal Republic of Germany still leaves more than enough room for the implementation of marketing elements. With the help of evaluation processes borrowed from the market mechanism all those in search of appropriate environmental policies are able to better analyse the very priorities they have made their aim. Democratic decision making should make it a point to see to the integration of information gained on the preferences of the citizen. Market-analogous evaluation processes currently seem about to be given a better chance. The vehicles of environmental policy are obviously suffering even more from a suppressed demand for market impulses. In the Federal Republic of Germany environmental vehicles generally tend to be lead and determined by regulations. For the benefit of economy and the environment data and certificates (or compensatory regulations) could be combined much more than before with the traditional regulation-oriented policy. For the time being chances seem to be poor for completions to come in from the market. The revised Clean Air Technical Guide (TA Luft) has wasted a promising chance. (orig./HSCH).
Marglin, Stephen A.
Economics is a two-faced discipline. It claims to be a science, describing the world without preconception or value judgment. The reality is that descriptive economics has been shaped by a framework of assumptions geared more to its normative message than to its pretensions. The self-interested individual--who rationally calculates how to achieve…
Viswanatha, Sankara Rama Subramaniam
The foundation for the independence approach of Gandhi were more based on Social and Personal freedom than Economic independency and prosperity of the people concerned. British rulers in South Africa and India strategically used the social wedges as a tool to utilise the occupied territory and people, for the economic gains of Britain and their people. Any Psyco-social management action on the public can over power the management decision of any ruler, however powerful they may be. A soc...
F. F. Pereira
Full Text Available Land surface models are excellent tools for studying how climate change and land use affect surface hydrology. However, in order to assess the impacts of Earth processes on river flows, simulated changes in runoff need to be routed through the landscape. In this technical note, we describe the integration of the Ecosystem Demography (ED2 model with a hydrological routing scheme. The purpose of the study was to create a tool capable of incorporating to hydrological predictions the terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate, carbon dioxide, and land-use change, as simulated with terrestrial biosphere models. The resulting ED2+R model calculates the lateral routing of surface and subsurface runoff resulting from the terrestrial biosphere models' vertical water balance in order to determine spatiotemporal patterns of river flows within the simulated region. We evaluated the ED2+R model in the Tapajós, a 476 674 km2 river basin in the southeastern Amazon, Brazil. The results showed that the integration of ED2 with the lateral routing scheme results in an adequate representation (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency up to 0.76, Kling–Gupta efficiency up to 0.86, Pearson's R up to 0.88, and volume ratio up to 1.06 of daily to decadal river flow dynamics in the Tapajós. These results are a consistent step forward with respect to the no river representation common among terrestrial biosphere models, such as the initial version of ED2.
Full Text Available Maintenance of wild animals in captivity is fraught with numerous challenges, including the control of disease. This study evaluates the effect of season, host demography (age-sex, and differing management systems on the prevalence of intestinal parasites among elephants managed in three captive systems: temple, private, and forest department, in Tamil Nadu. In addition, the study also assessed the availability of veterinary care for elephants in these systems. The parasitic prevalence was evaluated by direct microscopic identification of helminth eggs in faecal samples (n = 115 collected from different age/sex classes of elephants. Of the 115 elephants examined, 37% showed positive results, being infected only with Strongyles sp. The prevalence rate varied significantly across seasons, with the highest rate during summer (49% followed by monsoon (41% and the lowest rate during winter (15%. While males had a significantly lower parasite prevalence compared to females (29% vs. 40%, age classes showed no significant difference. Despite the fact that the proportion of animals receiving veterinary care was higher under the forest department system (100% compared to the private system (26%, parasite prevalence was significantly higher under the former (48% than the latter (31% system. The difference in the proportion of animals with parasitic prevalence among the three systems could be due to differing management practices (i.e. in solitary versus groups and the details are discussed.
Wemerson C. da Silva
Full Text Available ABSTRACT Coastal and marine environments are characterized by a lack of evident physical barriers or geographic isolation, and it may be difficult to understand how divergence can arise and be sustained in marine environments. The identification of 'soft' barriers is a crucial step towards the understanding of gene flow in marine environments. The marine catfishes of the family Ariidae are a demersal group with restricted migratory behavior, no pelagic larval stages, and mechanisms of larval retention, representing a potentially useful model for the understanding of historical processes of allopatric speciation in the marine environment. In the present study, two lineages of the Coco sea catfish, Bagre bagre , were recognized from their complete segregation at both mitochondrial and morphological levels. One lineage is distributed between Venezuela and the northern coast of Brazil, including the semiarid northeast coast, while the second lineage is found on the eastern coast of Brazil, including the humid northeast coast. Based on distribution area, habitats preference, and genetic variability, inferences are made in relation to biogeography and demography of lineages in Atlantic coast of South America.
Garces Restrepo, Mario Fernando; Giraldo, Alan; Carr, John L
Few long-term demographic studies have been conducted in freshwater turtles of South America despite the need for this type of inquiry to investigate natural variation and strengthen conservation efforts for these species. In this study, we examined variation in demography of the Chocoan River turtle (Rhinoclemmys nasuta) based on a population from an island locality in the Colombian pacific region between 2005 and 2012. At this locality we captured turtles by hand in five streams with a total area of 0.4 ha. We calculated population size with the jolly-seber method and compared the population structure of four time periods (2005-06, 2007, 2011 and 2012). we calculated the probability of survival and capture probability for males, females and juveniles using the cormack jolly seber model and we estimated the rate of population growth with the Popan model. We found increases and decreases in population size, and a significant increase in the percentage of juveniles in 2011 and 2012. In all periods, females dominated the sex structure of the population. Temporal variation in population size may be due to natural changes in habitat or density dependent effects. However, it may correspond with normal fluctuations in population parameters, therefore continuous monitoring that can be correlated with environmental and physical factors of the habitat could elucidate the causes of the variation.
Amaral, Ana R; Beheregaray, Luciano B; Bilgmann, Kerstin; Freitas, Luís; Robertson, Kelly M; Sequeira, Marina; Stockin, Karen A; Coelho, M M; Möller, Luciana M
Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene have greatly influenced the distribution and connectivity of many organisms, leading to extinctions but also generating biodiversity. While the effects of such changes have been extensively studied in the terrestrial environment, studies focusing on the marine realm are still scarce. Here we used sequence data from one mitochondrial and five nuclear loci to assess the potential influence of Pleistocene climatic changes on the phylogeography and demographic history of a cosmopolitan marine predator, the common dolphin (genus Delphinus). Population samples representing the three major morphotypes of Delphinus were obtained from 10 oceanic regions. Our results suggest that short-beaked common dolphins are likely to have originated in the eastern Indo-Pacific Ocean during the Pleistocene and expanded into the Atlantic Ocean through the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, long-beaked common dolphins appear to have evolved more recently and independently in several oceans. Our results also suggest that short-beaked common dolphins had recurrent demographic expansions concomitant with changes in sea surface temperature during the Pleistocene and its associated increases in resource availability, which differed between the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. By proposing how past environmental changes had an effect on the demography and speciation of a widely distributed marine mammal, we highlight the impacts that climate change may have on the distribution and abundance of marine predators and its ecological consequences for marine ecosystems. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Nosal, D.C.; Cartamil, D.C.; Long, J.W.; Luhrmann, M.; Wegner, N.C.; Graham, J.B.
The demography, spatial distribution, and movement patterns of leopard sharks (Triakis semifasciata) aggregating near the head of a submarine canyon in La Jolla, California, USA, were investigated to resolve the causal explanations for this and similar shark aggregations. All sharks sampled from the aggregation site (n=140) were sexually mature and 97.1 % were female. Aerial photographs taken during tethered balloon surveys revealed high densities of milling sharks of up to 5470 sharks ha-1. Eight sharks were each tagged with a continuous acoustic transmitter and manually tracked without interruption for up to 48 h. Sharks exhibited strong site-fidelity and were generally confined to a divergence (shadow) zone of low wave energy, which results from wave refraction over the steep bathymetric contours of the submarine canyon. Within this divergence zone, the movements of sharks were strongly localized over the seismically active Rose Canyon Fault. Tracked sharks spent most of their time in shallow water (≤2 m for 71.0 % and ≤10 m for 95.9 % of time), with some dispersing to deeper (max: 53.9 m) and cooler (min: 12.7 °C) water after sunset, subsequently returning by sunrise. These findings suggest multiple functions of this aggregation and that the mechanism controlling its formation, maintenance, and dissolution is complex and rooted in the sharks' variable response to numerous confounding environmental factors.
Muñoz, David J.; Miller Hesed, Kyle; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A.W.
Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal-limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal-limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5-year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size-specific fecundity, potentially reducing population-level persistence. To better understand within-population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph-specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.
Economistas e culturas econômicas no Brasil e na Argentina: notas para uma comparação a propósito das heterodoxias Economists and economic cultures in Brazil and Argentina: toward a comparison on heterodoxies
Full Text Available Este artigo propõe uma abordagem sobre a história social e cultural da economia (e em especial sobre o fenômeno da inflação preocupada em articular (a a lógica social que subjaz à produção de teorias econômicas (considerando as trajetórias e propriedades sociais dos profissionais da economia, (b as modulações das esferas públicas econômicas nacionais (que servem como canais de difusão para as visões econômicas do mundo social fora do estreito círculo dos especialistas e (c as culturas econômicas (isto é, as formas mais gerais de representar e de agir na vida econômica. O artigo focaliza um capítulo recente da história cultural da economia marcado pela aplicação de planos de estabilização monetária reconhecidos como "heterodoxos", no Brasil e na Argentina (os planos Cruzado e Austral. A análise comparativa procura iluminar, por contraste, a consagração dos economistas como intelectuais públicos, os mecanismos por meio dos quais se exerce a pedagogia da economia e as relações entre culturas econômicas e culturas nacionais em ambos os países.This article approaches social and cultural history of economy (especially the phenomenon of inflation by examining the interconnections between (a the social logic underlying the production of economic theories (taking into account the social careers and profiles of economic experts, (b the modulations of national public economic spheres (which serve as channels for propagating economic visions of the social world beyond the narrow circle of specialists, and (c economic cultures (that is, the general forms of representation and agency found in economic life. The article focuses on a recent period in the economic cultural history of Brazil and Argentina, dominated by the application of monetary stabilization plans depicted as "heterodox" (the Cruzado and Austral plans. The comparative analysis looks to reveal the transformation of economists into public intellectuals, the
Chen, C; Lu, R S; Zhu, S S; Tamaki, I; Qiu, Y X
Inferring past demography is a central question in evolutionary and conservation biology. It is, however, sometimes challenging to disentangle their roles of contemporary versus historical processes in shaping the current patterns of genetic variation in endangered species. In this study, we used both chloroplast microsatellite (cpSSR) loci and nuclear microsatellite (nSSR) loci to assess the levels of genetic differentiation, genetic effective population size, contemporary/historical levels of gene flow and demographic history for five populations sampled across the range of Dipteronia dyeriana, an endangered palaeoendemism from Southwestern China. We found that D. dyeriana had a mixed pattern of moderate genetic diversity and high inbreeding. Bayesian clustering divided D. dyeriana populations into two nSSR genetic clusters. Coalescent-based approximate Bayesian computation analyses suggest the western and eastern groups of D. dyeriana likely persisted in a long-term refuge in Southern China since the beginning of the last glacial period, whereas increasingly colder and arid climates at the onset of the last glacial maximum might have fostered the fragmentation of D. dyeriana within refugia. Following their divergence, the western group kept relatively stable effective population size, whereas the eastern group had experienced 500-fold population expansion during the Holocene. Although clear loss of genetic diversity by human activities was not suggested, recent habitat fragmentation has led to a reduction of population connectivity and increased genetic differentiation by ongoing genetic drift in isolated populations, possibly owing to decreased population size in recent dozen years. Finally, we discussed the implications of these results on conservation policies.
Full Text Available Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation. Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming.
Benavides, Raquel; Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Escudero, Adrián; Hódar, José A; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Rincón, Ana M; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando
Global change triggers shifts in forest composition, with warming and aridification being particularly threatening for the populations located at the rear edge of the species distributions. This is the case of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) in the Mediterranean Basin where uncertainties in relation to its dynamics under these changing scenarios are still high. We analysed the relative effect of climate on the recruitment patterns of Scots pine and its interactions with local biotic and abiotic variables at different spatial scales. Number of seedlings and saplings was surveyed, and their annual shoot growth measured in 96 plots located across altitudinal gradients in three different regions in the Iberian Peninsula. We found a significant influence of climate on demography and performance of recruits, with a non-linear effect of temperature on the presence of juveniles, and a positive effect of precipitation on their survival. Abundance of juveniles of P. sylvestris that underwent their first summer drought was skewed towards higher altitudes than the altitudinal mean range of the conspecific adults and the optimum elevation for seedlings' emergence. At local level, light availability did not influence juveniles' density, but it enhanced their growth. Biotic interactions were found between juveniles and the herb cover (competition) and between the number of newly emerged seedlings and shrubs (facilitation). Results also highlighted the indirect effect that climate exerts over the local factors, modulating the interactions with the pre-existing vegetation that were more evident at more stressful sites. This multiscale approach improves our understanding of the dynamics of these marginal populations and some management criteria can be inferred to boost their conservation under the current global warming.
Kim, J. B.; Kim, Y.
This study investigates how the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation distribution on the Korean peninsula would vary with climate change. Ecosystem Demography (ED) Model version 2 (ED2) is used in this study, which is an integrated terrestrial biosphere model that can utilize a set of size- and age- structured partial differential equations that track the changing structure and composition of the plant canopy. With using the vegetation distribution data of Jeju Island, located at the southern part of the Korean Peninsula, ED2 is setup and driven for the past 10 years. Then the results of ED2 are evaluated and adjusted with observed forestry data, i.e., growth and mortality, and the flux tower and MODIS satellite data, i.e., evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP). This adjusted ED2 are used to simulate the water and carbon fluxes as well as vegetation dynamics in the Korean Peninsula for the historical period with evaluating the model against the MODIS satellite data. Finally, the climate scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 6.0 are used to predict the fluxes and vegetation distribution of the Korean Peninsula in the future. With using the state-of-art terrestrial ecosystem model, this study would provide us better understanding of the future ecosystem vulnerability of the Korean Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).
Bionda, Clarisa; Lajmanovich, Rafael; Salas, Nancy; Martino, Adolfo; di Tada, Ismael
The advancing agricultural frontier has led to an important loss of natural habitats, with significant consequences for biodiversity. The demography for two species of anurans, Physalaemus biligonigerus and Rhinella arenarum, both associated with agricultural systems in the central region of the C6rdoba Province, were analyzed and compared in this study. Four sites were sampled: three agroecosystems with different alteration degrees (C1, C2 and SM1) and a fourth site not cultivated (SM2). The sampling was conducted during two reproductive periods, from September 2008 to April 2009 and September 2009 to April 2010. Individuals were captured using live pitfall traps for the metamorphic, juveniles and adults; and visual encounter survey, for the capture of eggs and larvae. With the abundance data, the survival for each age class was estimated using the KNM method (Kiritani Nakasuki Manly). With survival rates and fertility population, Leslie matrices were elaborated to obtain a quantitative projection of the population size. Altered environments showed lower eggs and larvae survival. Population projections were favorable in the site SM2 and were less favorable and a tendency to extinction, in sites dominated by crops. This study showed that the agroecosystems of this region are possibly inhospitable environments for reproduction and survival of the species studied. The aquatic stages in the life cycle of both species would be the more affected, since water bodies deterioration is present or may occur in those areas. We can recognize species-specific effects of agricultural ecosystems; P. biligonigerus was the most affected species, possibly because of their life histories and habitat requirements. We suggested that environmental degradation caused by the cropland in the central region of Argentina would impact on the demographics of the anuran populations in the area.
A morphometric study of antral G-cell density in a sample of adult general population: comparison of three different methods and correlation with patient demography, helicobacter pylori infection, histomorphology and circulating gastrin levels
Petersson, Fredrik; Borch, Kurt; Rehfeld, Jens F
whether these methods are intercorrelated and the relation of these methods to plasma gastrin concentrations, demography, the occurrence of H. pylori infection and chronic gastritis. Gastric antral mucosal biopsy sections from 273 adults (188 with and 85 without H pylori infection) from a general...... population sample were examined immunohistochemically for G-cells using cell counting, stereology (point counting) and computerized image analysis. Gastritis was scored according to the updated Sydney system. Basal plasma gastrin concentrations were measured by radioimmunoassay. The three methods for G...
Barata, O S
The population of Portugal showed a period of slow growth between 1950-60; however, in the 1970s, the return of large numbers of former residents in African territories along with a reduction in emigration changed the trend so that the 1981 census showed a significant increase. The Portuguese economy, on the other hand, is in a state of crisis which has resulted in large numbers of unemployed. The growth of the population along with these hard times has made it more difficult to reduce the rate of unemployment. It is also more difficult for those leaving school to find jobs. The better educated generations are seeking jobs in industry and in other services that Portugal will find difficult to offer in sufficient numbers in the immediate future. At present, the Portuguese economy has a large component of agricultural labor. In any case, the means of economic and social intervention to fight unemployment have limited potential. Therefore, many of those unable to find jobs in Portugal will attempt to emigrate. Many Portuguese are already working in Germany, France, and in other Western European countries but migration today is much more difficult. In addition, these countries cannot be expected to recive many more migrant workers in the future. In fact, those better educated workers from Portugal will not be very interested in the low paying jobs which can be found more easily by foreign workers in Western Euorpe. Many will therefore attempt to find jobs in non-European countries. There has been a recent increase of migration to Canada and the US. A renewal of interest in jobs in Brazil and other South Amerian countries is also to be expected. There may also be a future increase in the number of experts, technicians, and other qualified personnel emigrating to Portuguese speaking African countries if there is adequate security and if these countries find the way to expand economic growth. (author's modified)
Caputo, M; Nicotra, M; Gloria-Bottini, E
By the end of the 20th century most industrialized nations had undergone the so-called fertility transition, characterized by a reduction in fertility to below replacement level and a delay in age at initiation of child-bearing. An emerging concern is the severe economic and social consequences of this demographic decline. We present an overview of fertility changes in Italy in the second half of the 20th century and a mathematical model that may provide projections for the future of the demographic situation. Starting in 1950 the increment of the number of children born in Italy is initially positive; however, beginning in 1965 the trend suddenly becomes negative, and this negative trend further increased in 1975. A slight improvement is observed in 1980, followed by a stable situation beginning in 1987. Relevant socioeconomic and cultural events in Italy coincide with these variations in the fertility trend. Malnutrition, which had been endemic for centuries in some areas of central and southern Italy, disappeared rather abruptly in early 1960. The improvement in the economic situation was also associated with a decrease in illiteracy and with many sociocultural changes, with the emergence of new demands that decreased propensity for childbearing. The additional deceleration observed in 1975 corresponds to the diffusion of contraceptive procedures. The progression of sociocultural changes has led to a progressive liberation of women from the biological burden of childbearing. Two phenomena seem relevant in this context: women's emerging interest in entering the workforce and the possibility to disconnect sex from childbearing. The social function of feminism has overwhelmed the primary function of survival and diffusion of the species, giving rise to relevant and worrying demographic effects. However, the modern woman has an unconscious memory of her primary biological role, depending on both her genetic structure and cultural heritage, that should bring about a change in the present strong tendency to demographic decline. The basic notion of memory functions is widely recognized in sciences, for example, in the evolutionary theory of Darwin. Here, we introduce into the equations governing population growth a memory mechanism and a perturbation, and we estimate the reactions of the system to perturbations caused by environmental changes and subsequent delayed effects, such as those that appear in the birth rate beginning in 1965 and 1975. The mathematical modeling of the effects of perturbations of the fertility rate in the Italian population, with the introduction of a mathematical memory formalism, suggests that the effect is strongly reduced, with a relaxation time of about 10 years when the fertility rate approaches a stable value.
provide a coherent interpretation that fits selected events into the plot of the overall narrative.33 2. Narrative and Personal Identity The concept of...situation, like ordering food at a restaurant . The transaction goes smoothly because both the waiter and the customer know their part in the script...Identity is not some inner essence but rather an ongoing story that emerges in and through the selection and emplotment of experience. Individuals
In this article a confrontation on the classic Gog/Magog motive (end time battle between God and evil) is enacted between two opposite Jewish thinkers: Martin Buber and Meir Kahane. It shows how and on what conditions the biblical text can be interpreted so differently. The article also tries to
Full Text Available En général, les études traitant de « l’Empire » américain tendent à chercher à comprendre celui-ci à partir de termes concrets tels que la frontière, l’intervention militaire, le commerce international. Néanmoins, les Empires sont d’abord le résultat de profondes traditions intellectuelles intangibles qui encouragent et justifient les actions entreprises dans le cadre de politiques impériales. Dans le cas de l’Amérique, les fondements intellectuels du nouvel idéal impérial sont ancrés dans la vision apocalyptique transportée dans les bagages des premiers colons puritains. Si l’on ne prend pas en compte cet ancrage apocalyptique, on ne peut saisir, dans leur totalité, les principes fondamentaux de « l’Empire » américain. On devrait examiner des termes qui entrent en résonance avec le discours impérial tels que « mission » et « destinée » ainsi que de l’engagement explicite dans la rhétorique présidentielle en faveur de « l’amélioration » du monde à n’importe quel prix du point de vue de cette croyance apocalyptique éternelle. Cet article essaie d’élucider l’origine et l’essence de la vision apocalyptique américaine en portant une attention particulière sur son influence dans la genèse du concept d’Empire américain.
Explanation, research and models. Psychology: A quarterly journal of human behavior 16(23-36), pp. 24– 36. Glock, C. Y . & Stark, R. (1965). Religion ...Danger Control, Problem-Focused Coping, Emotion-Focused Coping, Millennialism , Premillennial, Postmillennial, Amillennial. 15. NUMBER OF PAGES...11 4. Religion /Religiosity ............................................................................12 5
Full Text Available Early translations of the Apocalypse of Anastasia into Old Church Slavonic appear in several versions incorporated into miscellanies of the zbornik (collection type. These texts belong to various genres of religious prose and are usually assembled in apocryphal collections about journeys to the other world. The earliest known Serbian version of the Apocalypse of Anastasia is the fourteenth-century manuscript dated to about 1380 (MS 29. The present paper gives an analysis of this narrative.
Instituciones privadas, empresarios, dirigentes sociales, economistas, periodistas y otros profesionales en la producción y difusión mundial de ideas (neoliberales Private institutions, entrepreneurs, social directors, economists, journalists and other professionals involved in the world production and dissemination fo the (neo liberal ideas
Full Text Available Este artículo analiza cómo se producen y difunden mundialmente las ideas neoliberales y de qué modo tal producción y divulgación resultan significativas para la orientación de procesos actuales. La investigación seleccionó casos de 3 instituciones: la Sociedad Mont Pelerin, el Institute of Economic Affairs y la Atlas Economic Research Foundation y de las redes transnacionales de “think tanks”, escuelas de negocios, dirigentes polìticos, economistas, periodistas y otros actores sociales. Las ideas veiculadas por tales instituciones van desde la clásica de reducir la intervención estatal a los asuntos sociales, hasta las de que en la questión ambiental es más aconsejable mantener el Estado distante. Palabras clave: Liberalismo. Neoliberalismo. Globalización. Estado. Comunicación. Cultura. Política. This article analyses how the neo-liberal ideas are produced and disseminated worldwide and how this production communicates its meaning for the orientation of the present processes. The research itself elected 3 institutions as case models: Mont Pelerin Society, The Institute of Economic Affairs and the Atlas Economic Research Foundation and the international nets of “think tanks”, business schools, political leaders, economists, journalists and other social actors. The ideas transmitted by such institutions go from the classic position of admitting the state presence only in social matters to the one that says that it is preferable to keep the state away, mainly if it concerns the environmental sphere. Keywords: Liberalism. Neo liberalism. Globalization. State/Government. Communication. Culture. Politics.
Morin, Phillip A; Foote, Andrew D; Baker, C Scott; Hancock-Hanser, Brittany L; Kaschner, Kristin; Mate, Bruce R; Mesnick, Sarah L; Pease, Victoria L; Rosel, Patricia E; Alexander, Alana
Mitochondrial DNA has been heavily utilized in phylogeography studies for several decades. However, underlying patterns of demography and phylogeography may be misrepresented due to coalescence stochasticity, selection, variation in mutation rates, and cultural hitchhiking (linkage of genetic variation to culturally transmitted traits affecting fitness). Cultural hitchhiking has been suggested as an explanation for low genetic diversity in species with strong social structures, counteracting even high mobility, abundance and limited barriers to dispersal. One such species is the sperm whale, which shows very limited phylogeographic structure and low mtDNA diversity despite a worldwide distribution and large population. Here, we use analyses of 175 globally distributed mitogenomes and three nuclear genomes to evaluate hypotheses of a population bottleneck/expansion versus a selective sweep due to cultural-hitchhiking or selection on mtDNA as the mechanism contributing to low worldwide mitochondrial diversity in sperm whales. In contrast to mtDNA control region (CR) data, mitogenome haplotypes are largely ocean-specific, with only one of 80 shared between the Atlantic and Pacific. Demographic analyses of nuclear genomes suggest low mtDNA diversity is consistent with a global reduction in population size that ended approximately 125,000 years ago, correlated with the Eemian interglacial. Phylogeographic analysis suggests that extant sperm whales descend from maternal lineages endemic to the Pacific during the period of reduced abundance, and have subsequently colonized the Atlantic several times. Results highlight the apparent impact of past climate change, and suggest selection and hitchhiking are not the sole processes responsible for low mtDNA diversity in this highly social species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Papers in economics often try to find the ‘best’ estimate of a parameter. If researchers behave as predicted by economic theory, the research process can be modeled and simulated. The ‘best’ estimate is selected from J regression experiments by a selection rule, SR, which gives the researcher’s p...
Bui, Craig, and Imberman assessed the impact of gifted and talented programs on student achievement using regression discontinuity and random assignment to gifted magnet schools. In both analyses, they found minimal impact of the gifted and talented programs on student achievement. This commentary addresses two concerns associated with the study.…
Danny García Callejas
Full Text Available Adam Smith, Alfred Marshall, Stanley Jevons, Karl Marx, Francois Quesnay and Joseph Schumpeter all have at least one thing in common: they used biological metaphors when speaking about economics. Nonetheless, today, this relation subsists and biology and economics are viewed as complementary sciences that have a lot to gain from joint research in fields like: evolutionary economics, economic growth, cognitive economics and environmental and ecological economics, among others. This paper, divided in four sections, will show this conclusion and explain that biology and economics are more sisters than strangers
Boot, A.; Logue, D.; Spatt, C.
Corporate tax reform has been a controversial issue in the U.S. for several years, particularly as U.S. companies have accumulated cash in lower‐tax overseas subsidiaries, while some have used “inversions” to establish overseas corporate domiciles. Two features of U.S. corporate taxation stand out:
This insightful guide, which has proven hugely popular around the world in hardback, not only includes the most significant ideas that have influenced the management of business over the past century, but it also includes entries on the most influential business thinkers of the past and present. Entries on ideas include: Active Inertia; Disruptive Technology; Genchi Genbutsu (Japanese for "Go and See for Yourself"); The Halo Effect; The Long Tail; Pareto Principle; Six Sigma;, Skunkworks; SWOT analysis; Thin Slicing; Tipping Point; Triple Bottom Line.
On September 3, 1980, the water injection module was lifted on board the Statfjord A platform. That marks the completion of the platform, a giant 3,000,000 bpd capacity monster of an offshore structure, carrying a price tag of $1.5 billion. Two more such giants are scheduled to follow, each costing approximately $2 billion in the North Sea's largest and most expensive offshore field development ever. Oil wells in the Statfjord field, the largest North Sea field to date, are now producing at up to 30,000 bpd each. The reservoir proves particularly open, and the filling of it is extremely good. Wells have produced up to 40,000 bpd, but with that kind of flow, sand problems occur. Gravel packs have had to be installed in several of the wells. Mobil's Dallas facilities have uncovered the fact that now dominates the Norwegian North Sea scene, i.e., the cut off point for gas reinjection into the Statfjord sand is late 1985. After that point a possible breakthrough of gas could block the oil or even damage the reservoir if reinjection is continued.
Scherer, F. M.
Full Text Available This paper examines premises and data underlying the assertion that some financial institutions in the U.S. economy were "too big to fail" and hence warranted government bailout. It traces the merger histories enhancing the dominance of six leading firms in the U. S. banking industry and he sharp increases in the concentration of financial institution assets accompanying that merger wave. Financial institution profits are found to have soared in tandem with rising concentration. The paper advances hypotheses why these phenomena might be related and surveys relevant empirical literature on the relationships between market concentration, interest rates received and charged by banks, and economies of scale in banking.
value was necessary for exchange value but did not explain its magnitude. Jeremy Bentham with his usual clarity of thought did in fact resolve the...paradox by distinguishing between marginal and total utility; but as usual with him the fragment was not published. Bentham was very close to James Mill
Full Text Available The article provides a review of Sylos Labini’s memories, collected here on occasion of the tenth anniversary of his passing away. The author reports on the proceedings of two conferences in memory of Sylos Labini held in Rome, on 18 November 2015 at the Lincean Academy and on 4 December 2015 at Sapienza University. Sylos Labini stipulated that the goal of economic development is not just to satisfy human needs, but to cater civil development itself, in accordance with Adam Smith’s fundamental lesson. In his view, economic development and civil development interact in a circular manner in the long run. Considering the developmental issues of Italy’s Mezzogiorno, Sylos Labini highlights that the nature of the problem is not only economic, but rather many issues arise from unreasonable links between politics, economy, and society. Accordingly, he provided policy suggestions that are not limited to the economic and industrial fields (such as water supply projects, irrigation infrastructures, and investments for the creation of modern industries, but he also identified three priority areas of social policy: measures to contrast the mafias, crime in public procurement, and corruption; a reform of the public administration; and investments in education, universities, and research. JEL: B31; A11; N14; A12
Social trends indicating change in family structure and roles, more single-parent and blended families, and the important role of parents in socialization demonstrate the need for parenting education. A parenting course should include understanding of healthy family life and parental roles, parenting styles, child development, and parenting…
Full Text Available This paper is concerned with forecasting traffic accidents at a relatively aggregate level and over a long time period; the sort of information that is required as part of a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of a major transportation investment or policy change. It is not so focused on appraising the social value of specific safety measures, although some of the points made seem germane. Whereas there has been much ex ante analysis at the meso- and macro-levels looking at the causes of accidents and ways of reducing both their number and severity, much less ex post has been done considering the accuracy of predictions of accident rates after an investment or policy initiative. Given the evidence that exists on the accuracy of traffic forecasts, especially involving oft over-optimistic predictions of public transit and rail use, there is at least a prima facie case for arguing that many investment and policy decisions are being based, in part, on over favorable assumptions with regard to their aggregate safety impacts.
Full Text Available Examination results are rather important for many students with regard to their future profession development. Results of exams should be carefully inspected by the teachers to help improve design and evaluation of tests and education process in general. Analysis of examination papers in mathematics taken by students of basic mathematics course at University of Economics in Prague is reported. The first issue addressed is identification of significant dependencies between performance in particular problem areas covered in the test and also between particular items and total score in test or ability level as a latent trait. The assessment is first performed with Spearman correlation coefficient, items in the test are then evaluated within Item Response Theory framework. The second analytical task addressed is a search for groups of students who are similar with respect to performance in test. Cluster analysis is performed using partitioning around medoids method and final model selection is made according to average silhouette width. Results of clustering, which may be also considered in connection with setting of the minimum score for passing the exam, show that two groups of students can be identified. The group which may be called "well-performers" is the more clearly defined one.
Full Text Available In this Manifesto, we make a set of proposals to fight unemployment in the EU. We believe that the European unemployment problem needs to be attacked on two fronts: through a broad spectrum of supply-side policies and the demand management policy. The expansion of aggregate demand is necessary to increase both investment and employment. However, unless supply-side measures are also taken, demand expansion can result in more inflation instead of more employment, because of the mismatch between the demand and supply of labour. What is important to stress is that both demand and supply-side policies must be adopted together by all European countries, in order both to avoid beggar-thy-neighbor problems and, at the same time, to catch all the possible complementary effects of these policies.
Chaloupka, Frank J
Interventions to reduce childhood obesity entail ethical considerations. Although a rationale exists for government to intervene in a way that limits individual rights while protecting the public's health, a clear economic rationale also exists. The markets for goods and services that contribute to obesity are characterized by multiple failures that create an economic rationale for government to intervene (eg, consumers' lack of accurate information regarding obesogenic foods and beverages). If effective public policies for reducing obesity and its consequences are to be developed and implemented, individual rights and government interests must be balanced.
van Winden, F.A.A.M.; van Lange, P.A.M.
Recent developments in economics and psychology suggest that productivity in the social sciences will benefit from crossing existing academic barriers, and that such crossing is more and more likely. Social science is in the making, but its success seems particularly conditioned on the willingness
Jul 31, 2017 ... Sow is a graduate of the Programme de Troisième Cycle ... I can say that PTCI has made me what I am today: a Francophone African woman fighting my battles without complaint and moving ... to train graduate and post-graduate students in economics across the entire region. ... More stories Top of page ...
25 oct. 2010 ... AERC awards research grants on issues such as poverty, trade and finance and manages collaborative Master's and PhD programs in economics with dozens of African universities. “Within the first 10 years of AERC support for economic policy research, many African countries began to see growth rates ...
Between Internet news sources, social media and email, people are awash in information, most of it accessible at near-zero cost. Yet, humans possess only a finite capacity to process all of it. The average email user, for example, receives dozens of messages per day. The messages can’t all receive equal attention. How carefully does someone read an email from a sibling or friend before crafting a reply? How closely does a person read an email from the boss?> ; Limitations on the ability to pr...
Christensen, Tove; Lawrence, A.; Lund, Mogens
To-date, the dominant approach to improving farm animal welfare has consisted of a combination of voluntary improvements undertaken by farmers and the tightening of legal requirements. However, history suggests that there is a limit to the improvements capable of being secured by this approach...... priorities as to which aspects of animal welfare should be promoted. Here, economic approaches can be used to capture and synthesise the perspectives of all the stakeholders, including the animals, in a transparent and systematic way. The second way is by helping to ensure that incentives are set up...... in the right way. Where the benefits and costs of improving animal welfare are initially distributed unevenly across stakeholders so that a socially desirable situation will not develop automatically, or be implemented, suitable economic principles may help to create incentives which correct this situation...
Salguero-Gómez, R.; Jones, O.R.; Archer, C.R.; Bein, C.; de Buhr, H.; Farack, C.; Gottschalk, F.; Hartmann, A.; Henning, A.; Hoppe, G.; Römer, G.; Ruoff, T.; Sommer, V.; Wille, J.; Voigt, J; Zeh, S.; Vieregg, D.; Buckley, Y.M.; Che-Castaldo, J.; Hodgson, D.; Scheuerlein, A.; Caswell, H.; Vaupel, J.W.
1. The open-data scientific philosophy is being widely adopted and proving to promote considerable progress in ecology and evolution. Open-data global data bases now exist on animal migration, species distribution, conservation status, etc. However, a gap exists for data on population dynamics
Rougoor, Ward; Van Marrewijk, Charles
Global income inequality has been declining for several decades. We argue that global income inequality will reach its lowest level around 2027 and then will rise again. This development is the result of both economic and demographic forces. By combining economic projections with demographic
See, W A.; McLeod, D; Iversen, P
BACKGROUND: The optimal treatment for early prostate cancer has yet to be established. A well-tolerated hormonal therapy such as bicalutamide could be a useful treatment option in this setting, either as adjuvant or immediate therapy. A major collaborative clinical trials program was set up...... to investigate bicalutamide as a treatment option for local prostate cancer (localized or locally advanced disease). METHODS: The bicalutamide Early Prostate Cancer program comprises three randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of similar design that are being conducted in distinct geographical...... areas (North America; Australia, Europe, Israel, South Africa and Mexico; and Scandinavia). Men with T1b-4N0-1M0 (TNM 1997) prostate cancer have been randomized on a 1:1 basis to receive bicalutamide 150 mg daily or placebo. Recruitment to the program closed in July 1998, and follow-up is ongoing. Study...
Deason, Michael L; Salas, Antonio; Newman, Simon P; Macaulay, Vincent A; St A Morrison, Errol Y; Pitsiladis, Yannis P
The trans-Atlantic slave trade dramatically changed the demographic makeup of the New World, with varying regions of the African coast exploited differently over roughly a 400 year period. When compared to the discrete mitochondrial haplotype distribution of historically appropriate source populations, the unique distribution within a specific source population can prove insightful in estimating the contribution of each population. Here, we analyzed the first hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA in a sample from the Caribbean island of Jamaica and compared it to aggregated populations in Africa divided according to historiographically defined segments of the continent's coastline. The results from these admixture procedures were then compared to the wealth of historic knowledge surrounding the disembarkation of Africans on the island. In line with previous findings, the matriline of Jamaica is almost entirely of West African descent. Results from the admixture analyses suggest modern Jamaicans share a closer affinity with groups from the Gold Coast and Bight of Benin despite high mortality, low fecundity, and waning regional importation. The slaves from the Bight of Biafra and West-central Africa were imported in great numbers; however, the results suggest a deficit in expected maternal contribution from those regions. When considering the demographic pressures imposed by chattel slavery on Jamaica during the slave era, the results seem incongruous. Ethnolinguistic and ethnographic evidence, however, may explain the apparent non-random levels of genetic perseverance. The application of genetics may prove useful in answering difficult demographic questions left by historically voiceless groups.
Killewo, J. Z. J; Heggenhougen, Kris; Quah, Stella R
... PageAcademic Press is an imprint of Elsevier 525 B Street, Suite 1900, San Diego, CA 92101-4495, USA 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803, USA 32 Jamestown Road, London NW1 7BY, ...
Causes previously suggested for the sudden extinction of Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis) in Europe, starting around 35,000 years ago, comprise food shortage, climatic effects and violence from Modern Humans. The aim here is to formulate a demographic model with reconstructed fertility and de...... uncertainty. Finally, the option of regional migration between northern, middle and southern Europe is added, in order to capture population movements away from a region in response to deteriorating or improving climate. This model accounts for population developments, including the re......-population of the Middle and Northern regions of Europe during and after the warm Eem period. However, parameter choices that give plausible results during the initial 210,000 years also predict that the Neanderthals should have survived the latter part of the Weichselian ice age, despite competing for food with Modern...
Bloom, D E; Sachs, J D
This paper presents the effects of climate, topography, and natural ecology on public health, nutrition, demographics, technological diffusion, international trade and other determinants of economic development in Africa. The goal of this paper is to emphasize the need for intensified research on the issues at the intersection of ecology and human society. Geography was given emphasis because of three reasons: the minimal gain from another recitation of the damage caused by statism, protectionism and corruption to African economic performance; negligence of the role of natural forces in shaping economic performance; and tailoring of policies to geographical realities. The paper also discusses the general problems of tropical development and the focus of Africa's problems in worldwide tropical perspectives; demographic trends in Africa; use of standard cross-country growth equations with demographic and geographic variables, to account for the relative roles of geography; and the future growth strategies and the need for urban-based export growth in manufacturing and services. Lastly, the authors provide a summary of conclusions and discuss the agenda for future research.
Quader, M M; Rahman, M H; Kamal, M; Ahmed, A U; Saha, S K
Six hundred and ninety nine cases of alleged rape were studied by the authors during the period from 2007-2008 at the Mymensingh Medical College, Mymensingh. Of these cases, 122 had positive findings of recent sexual intercourse; 250 cases had the positive findings of habituated sexual intercourse, and 327 cases had no findings of sexual intercourse but they complained of forcible sexual intercourse and found no sign of sexual intercourse. Most of the alleged victims of rape were nulliparous 87.12% and parous was only 12.87%. 430 (61.51%) cases of reported victims who were students of schools and colleges were not considered as rape cases considering their victim's history of love affairs, leaving home secretly with their lovers, living with them for many days. Gang rape was not so common (4.29% of raped cases) in our study. Age groups, their occupations, living areas, time of arrival for medico-legal examination have been studied. Most of the cases were students (61.51%). A few numbers of victims were subjected to gang rape. Examination and reporting the cases have been discussed.
Kreyenfeld, M.; Willekens, F.J.; Wright, James D.
This article deals with the availability of large-scale data for demographic analysis. The main sources of data that demographers work with are censuses data, microcensus data, population registers, other administrative data, survey data, and big data. Data of this kind can be used to generate
Hewlett, B S
The preliminary comparison of hunter gatherers, horticulturalists, and pastoralists is based on 57 preindustrial populations with demographic and child care data out of a potential of 1264 documented cultures from the Ethnographic Atlas. The purpose of this effort is to demonstrate that the demographic characteristics of a population influence its child care practices and provides clues to understanding child care patterns. Traditional practices and provides clues to understanding child care patterns. Traditional practices including multiple caregiving, multistage play groups, and parents or siblings as cultural transmitters are reviewed in a demographic context. Other emerging practices are also discussed: the role of stepparents and differential parental investment in sons and daughters. Anthropological data published and unpublished included only those using standardized methods on total fertility, infant or child mortality, and/or sex/age distribution. Problems with the data set include limited cultural representation, small study sizes, limited time trends, and reliability. There is a concentration on the ]Kung San, Efe, Aka, Gidjingali, Yanomamo, Dusan, Semai, and Kipsigis. Only 7 of the 57 are outside the tropics. Foragers are farmers are primarily represented, because the pastoralists are primarily East African and smaller samples. Tables provide cultural specific data on total fertility rates (TRF), infant and child mortality, and sex ratios at birth and among the juvenile and adult population. Sections are devoted to methods, general patterns, traditional characteristics of childcare based on 5 hypotheses, and emergent trends with 2 more hypotheses on stepparenting and male preference. 2 patterns prevail: 1) hunter gatherers and horticulturalists/pastoralists show great intercultural variability in fertility and mortality rates, and 2) the ranges and means of both groups are very similiar. In the discussion of specific cultures, the hypothesis is proposed and then examples are drawn from the 57 studies to provide support or rejection of the hypothesis. The 1st postulated that the level of multiple care increases with the number of adult women without children increasing. The 2nd hypothesis is that the greater the density or compactness of the settlement, the greater the level of multiple care. It is reasoned in the 3rd that fertility and mortality patterns influence the nature of indulgent care of infants. The 4th hypothesis is that sex and age distributions and compactness of the camp influence the nature of the play ground and type of supervision. The 5th is that father involvement will be greater in societies with low population densities or isolated. The 6th is that a child rarely stays with natural parents throughout the dependency period. The 7th is that male biased juvenile sex ratios will exist in societies where the cost of raising males is or = that of raising families, or where males contribute more calories to the diet, or where male mortality is high.
Hodgkinson, Harold L.
Major demographic trends and consequences for higher education are examined. The Baby Boom sharply increased birth rates from 1946 to 1964 and was followed by a decline in births that lasted from 1964 to 1978. Currently there is an increased birth rate, but of much smaller size than the Baby Boom rates, due largely to the smaller size of the…
Bui, My Binh
Rattans are spiny climbing palms belonging to the Arecaceae family. Rattans may be single-stemmed or multi-stemmed in which stems (ramet) are clustered in a clump (genet). Rattan is an important non-timber forest product (NTFP) in almost all Southeast Asian countries. As demand for rattan products
Different countries are at different stages of demographic change. These differences ("asymmetries") can create opportunities for mutually beneficial financial cooperation between them. However, flaws in the current international financial architecture and weak financial institutions in the developing world may constrain the ...
Mare, Robert D.
The combined effects of differential fertility, differential mortality, and intergenerational educational mobility on the distribution of educational attainment in the United States were studied for women in the past half century. A simple model for the reproduction of educational hierarchies was used that takes these factors, plus age structure…
Ruiz Daniels, Rose
Tesis Doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Biología. Fecha de lectura: 12-09-2017 La presente tesis doctoral la componen un total de 3 capítulos dedicados a inferir diferentes aspectos de la adaptación molecular en las coníferas. En el primer capítulo introducimos el trabajo y lo contextualizamos en el actual entendimiento de la genética molecular de las coníferas. En el segundo capítulo nos centramos en el estudio d...
In the framework of the increase of the primary energy consumption in the future, the author discusses the hypothesis proposed by the economists. The following points are detailed: the economic growth, the demography, the reserves and resources in fossil coal, the renewable energies and nuclear future, the world energy accounting for 2050. (A.L.B.)
Bauquis, P.R. [Institut francais de l' energie, 75 - Paris (France)]|[TotalFinaElf La Defense 6, 92 - Courbevoie (France)
In the framework of the increase of the primary energy consumption in the future, the author discusses the hypothesis proposed by the economists. The following points are detailed: the economic growth, the demography, the reserves and resources in fossil coal, the renewable energies and nuclear future, the world energy accounting for 2050. (A.L.B.)
María Teresa Fernández Martínez
Full Text Available Se propone en este trabajo una tesis cunado menos polémica en una publicación como ésta dedicada a los medios: la de que los beneficios de los medios de comunicación y las nuevas tecnologías en la enseñanza se han aceptado como incuestionables cuando en realidad no lo son. Para ello, se analizan con justificaciones las supuestas ventajas de estos medios así como las razones que suelen exponerse para defender el hecho de que hasta la fecha no haya habido resultados visibles de su eficacia, llegando a la conclusión de que se han confundido medios con fines al establecerse como contenido estrella de las programaciones educativas aquello que no debería ser sino un instrumento más. The author proposes a controversial theory, although the benefits of using the media and the new technologies in education have been taken for granted, in fact they are not unquestionable. This paper analyzes the supposed advantages of these means as well as the reasons usually given to justify the fact that up to now there have been no visible results of efficiency. The author reaches the conclusion that means are mistaken for ends and are considered as a main content of the syllabus instead of just one tool among several others.
I will consider Romero's approach to certain exhaustion of the world, expressed by means of the metaphor of the zombie apocalypse, particularly in the contrast between two images of the first scenes of the film Day of the Dead (1985. On the basis of the recovery of the concept of zombie that has been appearing in recent critical essays, I aim at also recovering the relevance that mimesis, as social behavior, makes manifest in the characterization of Romero's zombie and the importance of this aspect in relation to some social phenomena connected to his cinema. The trends in critical philosophy that will be reconsidered here are identified mainly with the early evaluation of philosophy developed by Friedrich Nietzsche in his observations about history and Western societies difficulty for creating culture. On the basis of this interpretation, the theoretical contributions made by Cornelius Castoriadis and Byung-Chul Han will be also reconsidered.
Pablo FUENTES HINOJO
Full Text Available This article studies the problems related to the actitudes of the Christians Churchs towards the Roman power, throught apocaliptic imagines gathered in literary texts from the second to fith centuries, and the alternative ideologies of power that they reflect.
Pablo FUENTES HINOJO
This article studies the problems related to the actitudes of the Christians Churchs towards the Roman power, throught apocaliptic imagines gathered in literary texts from the second to fith centuries, and the alternative ideologies of power that they reflect.
Temporal variation in demography of the Chocoan River turtle, Rhinoclemmys nasuta (Geoemydidae), on Isla Palma, Malaga Bay, pacific coast of Valle del Cauca; Variacion demografica temporal de la tortuga de Rio Chocoana, Rhinoclemmys nasuta (Geoemydidae), en Isla Palma, Bahia Malaga, Pacifico del Valle del Cauca.
Garces Restrepo, Mario Fernando; Giraldo, Alan; Carr, John L
Few long-term demographic studies have been conducted in freshwater turtles of South America despite the need for this type of inquiry to investigate natural variation and strengthen conservation efforts for these species. In this study, we examined variation in demography of the Chocoan River turtle (Rhinoclemmys nasuta) based on a population from an island locality in the Colombian pacific region between 2005 and 2012. At this locality we captured turtles by hand in five streams with a total area of 0.4 ha. We calculated population size with the jolly-seber method and compared the population structure of four time periods (2005-06, 2007, 2011 and 2012). we calculated the probability of survival and capture probability for males, females and juveniles using the cormack jolly seber model and we estimated the rate of population growth with the Popan model. We found increases and decreases in population size, and a significant increase in the percentage of juveniles in 2011 and 2012. In all periods, females dominated the sex structure of the population. Temporal variation in population size may be due to natural changes in habitat or density dependent effects. However, it may correspond with normal fluctuations in population parameters, therefore continuous monitoring that can be correlated with environmental and physical factors of the habitat could elucidate the causes of the variation.
DE BEL-AIR, Françoise
GLMM - Gulf Labour Markets and Migration The objective of the paper is to draw a sketch of UAE’s population and migration dynamics, using the scarce data available from the federal and emirate-level statistical bureaus. In 2010, expatriates in the UAE were estimated to number 7,316,073 persons, twenty times the 1975’s figure of 356,343. Foreign nationals thus made up 88.5 per cent of the country’s total population; most were believed to come from Asia and especially from India. In the empl...
Full Text Available Objective: To explore the demographic features of the articles published in South Asian orthodontic journals in the last 6 years. Materials and Methods: All the orthodontic journals published from or representing South Asian countries from 2011 to 2016 were analyzed for the number of issues published, number of articles, number of authors, country affiliation of principal author, and international collaboration in authorship. Further, article type was classified and number of citations was noted. Descriptive statistics was used to characterize the various features of the published articles. Results: A total of 825 articles were found in five orthodontic journals published from or representing South Asian region with the number authors per article ranging up to 10. International collaboration in authorship varied from 0.98% to 12.75% of articles among those journals. For all journals, principal authors of most of the articles originated from the country of publishing journal. Cross-sectional study overnumbered other types of researches. However, systematic reviews and meta-analysis which are considered as the highest form of evidence were very scant in these journals. Conclusions: International collaboration in authorship and foreign principal investigator was found minimum. Greater percentage of publications were cross-sectional studies with few randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews/meta-analysis in the last 6 years.
Although the causes of many amphibian declines remain mysterious, there is general agreement that human habitat alteration represents the greatest threat to amphibian populations. In January 2000 the US Fish and Wildlife Service proposed listing Santa Barbara County California Ti...
Jeffrey M. Diez; Itamar Giladi; Robert Warren; H. Ronald. Pulliam
Summary 1. Mismatches between species distributions and habitat suitability are predicted by niche theory and have important implications for forecasting how species may respond to environmental changes. Quantifying these mismatches is challenging, however, due to the high dimensionality of species niches and the large spatial and temporal variability in population...
Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Jones, Owen R.; Archer, C. Ruth
spanning the rich diversity of the animal kingdom world-wide. This information is fundamental to our understanding of the conditions that have shaped variation in animal life histories and their relationships with the environment, as well as the determinants of invasion and extinction. Matrix population...... models (MPMs) are among the most widely used demographic tools by animal ecologists. MPMs project population dynamics based on the reproduction, survival and development of individuals in a population over their life cycle. The outputs from MPMs have direct biological interpretations, facilitating...... comparisons among animal species as different as Caenorhabditis elegans, Loxodonta africana and Homo sapiens. Thousands of animal demographic records exist in the form of MPMs, but they are dispersed throughout the literature, rendering comparative analyses difficult. Here, we introduce the COMADRE Animal...
For demographic reasons, the German labor force will decrease dramatically and it will be much older on average. However, labor demand, especially for qualified workers, is expected to remain high. This paper focuses on the possibilities of expanding the labor force by increasing the participation rates of women and older persons. Herein, the change in the labor force is decomposed with respect to population and labor participation and, moreover, the effects of higher participation rates are simulated. The decomposition and simulation scenarios are based on data published by the Institute for Employment Research. The analysis clearly reveals that the effect of a considerably higher labor participation of women and older workers will disappear over time when the working-age population shrinks more and more. In addition, individuals who are currently unemployed or out of the labor force are not skilled enough. Since it seems difficult to get more qualified workers in the short and even in the medium term, improving the conditions for women and older people to take up jobs should be tackled soon. This includes investments in education and health care.
Kendall, K.C.; Stetz, J.B.; Boulanger, J.; Macleod, A.C.; Paetkau, David; White, Gary C.
Grizzly bears (brown bears; Ursus arctos) are imperiled in the southern extent of their range worldwide. The threatened population in northwestern Montana, USA, has been managed for recovery since 1975; yet, no rigorous data were available to monitor program success. We used data from a large noninvasive genetic sampling effort conducted in 2004 and 33 years of physical captures to assess abundance, distribution, and genetic health of this population. We combined data from our 3 sampling methods (hair trap, bear rub, and physical capture) to construct individual bear encounter histories for use in Huggins-Pledger closed mark-recapture models. Our population estimate, N?? = 765 (95% CI = 715-831) was more than double the existing estimate derived from sightings of females with young. Based on our results, the estimated known, human-caused mortality rate in 2004 was 4.6% (95% CI = 4.2-4.9%), slightly above the 4% considered sustainable; however, the high proportion of female mortalities raises concern. We used location data from telemetry, confirmed sightings, and genetic sampling to estimate occupied habitat. We found that grizzly bears occupied 33,480 km2 in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE) during 1994-2007, including 10,340 km beyond the Recovery Zone. We used factorial correspondence analysis to identify potential barriers to gene flow within this population. Our results suggested that genetic interchange recently increased in areas with low gene flow in the past; however, we also detected evidence of incipient fragmentation across the major transportation corridor in this ecosystem. Our results suggest that the NCDE population is faring better than previously thought, and they highlight the need for a more rigorous monitoring program.
Herrero, J M
A complete and reliable knowledge of the potential voters is indispensable for holding elections in a democratic society. In 1990 a new Federal Code of Electoral Institutions and Procedures (COFIRE) was approved in Mexico. A new list of potential voters was to be created based on the 1990 census and without reference to the old list. The planning and implementation of the 1991 electoral rolls required great efficiency in order to complete the work in time for elections, while assuring its validity and legitimacy through a clear and participatory process in which all political parties played a permanent role. COFIRE designated July 1991 as the date for completion, allowing just 10 months for the entire process from planning to completion. The 1991 work represented a political process as much as a technical challenge. A working group from the political parties provided advice on all aspects of the work, from defining the social communications campaign to cartographic review and organization of field work. Although the list potential voters not intended for demographic purposes, its validity, coverage, and variety of information make it a rich source of sociodemographic information. An estimated 95% of individuals included in the 1990 census were included in the lists of prospective voters. Of these, 39,500,000 citizens, or 86% of the census population, actually registered as of the deadline on May 31. The final coverage by states varied from a low of 79.3% in Guerrero to a high of 91.0% in the Federal District.
An overview of the Economic and Demographic situation in Ukraine has been given. Some historical-scientific aspects of the actual crisis has been revealed. Between them: The soveitization of the Science, when scientists of Ukrainean origin work outside its borders, while the most influent and proliferous scientists inside the Country are of Russian origin. The percentage of astronomers of Russian origin is as great as ~40% while the percentage of the Russian population in Ukraine is about 20%. Another problem consist in low knowledge of the Ukrainean language by scientists working inside the Country.
Binoy Krishna Tarafder
Full Text Available Background. Mass psychogenic illness has been a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh over recent times. Objectives. This study was aimed at investigating the demographic characteristics and symptom profile of an outbreak of mass psychogenic illness occurring in a girls’ high school. Methods and Materials. In 14 April 2013, a total of 93 students of a girls’ high school suddenly developed various symptoms following intake of tiffin cake which resulted in panic and hospital admission. A descriptive, cross-sectional observational survey was done to define various characteristics of the outbreak. Results. No organic explanation for the reported illnesses was found. 93 female students were included who were hospitalized during the incident. Trigger factor was found in 98% of students. Most of the students were 13 years old. Average interval between exposure to the trigger and onset of symptoms was 151.5 minutes. Commonest symptoms were abdominal pain (83%, headache (73%, chest pain (69%, body ache (63%, nausea (69%, and generalized weakness and fatigue (61%. Hospital stay following the incident was about 12 hours on average. Conclusion. To avoid unnecessary panic in the community a prompt, coordinated response is important in resolving widespread community anxiety surrounding these episodes.
Tarafder, Binoy Krishna; Khan, Mohammad Ashik Imran; Islam, Md. Tanvir; Mahmud, Sheikh Abdullah Al; Sarker, Md. Humayun Kabir; Faruq, Imtiaz; Miah, Md. Titu; Arafat, S. M. Yasir
Background. Mass psychogenic illness has been a recurrent phenomenon in Bangladesh over recent times. Objectives. This study was aimed at investigating the demographic characteristics and symptom profile of an outbreak of mass psychogenic illness occurring in a girls' high school. Methods and Materials. In 14 April 2013, a total of 93 students of a girls' high school suddenly developed various symptoms following intake of tiffin cake which resulted in panic and hospital admission. A descriptive, cross-sectional observational survey was done to define various characteristics of the outbreak. Results. No organic explanation for the reported illnesses was found. 93 female students were included who were hospitalized during the incident. Trigger factor was found in 98% of students. Most of the students were 13 years old. Average interval between exposure to the trigger and onset of symptoms was 151.5 minutes. Commonest symptoms were abdominal pain (83%), headache (73%), chest pain (69%), body ache (63%), nausea (69%), and generalized weakness and fatigue (61%). Hospital stay following the incident was about 12 hours on average. Conclusion. To avoid unnecessary panic in the community a prompt, coordinated response is important in resolving widespread community anxiety surrounding these episodes. PMID:27294104
Teo, Lee Koon; Tripathi, Sanjay; Kazi, Zaid
The world is going through a major shift in demographic structure that will affect the economies and global markets in a major way over the next few decades. While extensive research has been done on the macro-economic implications of demographic changes, very little research has been conducted on the demographic challenges at an industry level or for firms and on how these firms should react. The banking sector, in particular has received little attention. The project is initiated by the Glo...
Serron, Luis A.
To determine whether the poverty which afflicts between 50% and 60% of Mexico's population can be described in an ideologically neutral perspective, the paper formulates ten questions about political and economic issues which are sensitive to both capitalist and Marxist theorists. The questions concern: (1) the balance between food supply and…
Helle, Samuli; Brommer, Jon E.; Pettay, Jenni E.; Lummaa, Virpi; Enbuske, Matti; Jokela, Jukka
A shift from nomadic foraging to sedentary agriculture was a major turning point in human evolutionary history, increasing our population size and eventually leading to the development of modern societies. We however lack understanding of the changes in life histories that contributed to the increased population growth rate of agriculturalists, because comparable individual-based reproductive records of sympatric populations of agriculturalists and foragers are rarely found. Here, we compared key life-history traits and population growth rate using comprehensive data from the seventieth to nineteenth century Northern Finland: indigenous Sami were nomadic hunter-fishers and reindeer herders, whereas sympatric agricultural Finns relied predominantly on animal husbandry. We found that agriculture-based families had higher lifetime fecundity, faster birth spacing and lower maternal mortality. Furthermore, agricultural Finns had 6.2% higher annual population growth rate than traditional Sami, which was accounted by differences between the subsistence modes in age-specific fecundity but not in mortality. Our results provide, to our knowledge, the most detailed demonstration yet of the demographic changes and evolutionary benefits that resulted from agricultural revolution. PMID:25232134
Model analizy klasyfikacji wielokrotnej (MCA) jest addytywnym modelem mającym szersze możliwości zastosowania niż, np. modele regresji liniowej. Przede wszystkim ze względu na to, gdyż zmienne w modelu MCA mogą pochodzić ze skal np. przedziałowej czy nominalnej. Poza tym, możliwe jest określenie stopnia wpływu zmiennych niezależnych zarówno przed jak i po uwzględnieniu zmiennych kontrolnych. Wreszcie, nie jest wymagane spełnienie założenia liniowej zależności p...
Karen B Strier
Full Text Available Assessments of the status of endangered species have focused on population sizes, often without knowledge of demographic and behavioral processes underlying population recovery. We analyzed demographic data from a 28-year study of a critically endangered primate, the northern muriqui, to investigate possible changes in demographic rates as this population recovered from near extirpation. As the population increased from 60 to nearly 300 individuals, its growth rate declined due to increased mortality and male-biased birth sex ratios; the increased mortality was not uniform across ages and sexes, and there has been a recent increase in mortality of prime-aged males. If not for a concurrent increase in fertility rates, the population would have stabilized at 200 individuals instead of continuing to grow. The unexpected increase in fertility rates and in adult male mortality can be attributed to the muriquis' expansion of their habitat by spending more time on the ground. The demographic consequences of this behavioral shift must be incorporated into management tactics for this population and emphasize the importance of understanding demographic rates in the recovery of endangered species.
Tropical forests are threatened world-wide. Therefore, there is a search for ways to use the forests in a sustainable way, as this could assist in the conservation of these special ecosystems. Non-timber products collected from trees in tropical forests are often mentioned as examples of
... dramatically decline over the next thirty years. In comparison to Europe, the trend of aging in developing counties, for example in the Middle East and Northern Africa, presents a stark contrast...
... of kuruma shrimp ( Penaeus japonicus ) species complex off China based on ... of 454-bp at 5' end of mitochondrial DNA control region were conducted. ... analyses suggested a late Pleistocene population expansion for both variety I ...
Roelle, James E.; Singer, Francis J.; Zeigenfuss, Linda C.; Ransom, Jason I.; Coates-Markle, Linda; Schoenecker, Kathryn A.
Wild horses (Equus caballus) at Pryor Mountain were studied by direct observation from 1993 through 2007. All horses present were individually identifiable on the basis of coat coloration, head and leg markings, gender, and band associations. Of the 609 horses either present prior to foaling in 1993 or born since, ages were precisely known for 491 (observed as a foal). Ages for 52 horses were estimated through tooth eruption and wear patterns, and for the remaining 66 horses through body size, morphology, and anecdotal evidence concerning when they were present on the range. At varying intensities, never less than 30 days per year, all horses were inventoried and their band associations noted. Foals were paired with dams based on observations of attachment during the early days and weeks of life. Year of death was determined by identification of the carcass where possible. In the absence of finding a carcass, an animal that was not observed for 2 years was considered to have died in the year that it went missing. Animals that were removed from the herd and mares that were part of a contraception study were excluded from calculations of survival and foaling rates, respectively, as appropriate. The average prefoaling population over the 15 years of the study was 148.8 animals (range = 120-187), and the annual foal crop averaged 32.1 (range = 23-40). Large removals (19-60 animals) in four years helped maintain the herd at this level; apparent growth rate (calculated as though removals had not occurred) was 9.6 percent annually (? = 1.096, range = 0.977-1.220). This annual growth rate is relatively low compared to that for many western horse herds, at least in part because of a decline in foal survival. Sex ratio of the foal crop varied widely among years, but pooled across years did not differ from 50:50. Sex ratio in the herd changed mostly as a result of removals. The average age of both males and females in the herd increased during the course of the study. Annual survival of males did not differ from that of females, nor did gender affect annual survival of foals. Pooled across years, ages, and sexes, the annual survival rate was 0.899. Annual foal survival rate was 0.697 and declined through time, with a tendency toward recovery in 2005-2007. Foal survival was higher in larger bands, but did not differ between foals born to primiparous and multiparous mares. A few 2-year-old mares produced foals; foaling rate (excluding contracepted mares and foals they produced) increased through age 10, remained high through age 15, and declined thereafter. Overall foaling rate for mares =3 years of age was 0.576 foals per mare, with no apparent trend during the period of our study. Foaling rate in years following gathers was somewhat lower than in other years. There was a positive relation between foaling rate and band size. Primiparous mares were somewhat less likely to foal in the following year than were multiparous mares. Most stallions that acquired a harem did so at age 5 or 6, and the average age of harem stallions increased during our study. Most harems had 1-3 mares =2 years of age, but harem size varied with age of the stallion, increasing through about age 11 and declining thereafter. About 6 percent of bands had a satellite stallion (=5 years of age), but the mean number of mares did not differ between single- and multistallion bands. Most stallions left their natal band at age 2 or 3, but 17 percent remained with their natal band until age 4 or 5. Foal survival rate was positively related to precipitation, suggesting a possible link to forage production and availability mediated through mare fitness. There also was evidence for density-dependent population regulation, as both population growth rate and survival rate were negatively correlated with population size from the previous year. These and other factors were not sufficient to stabilize the population during our period of study, however, as evidenced by the necess
Green, Anders; Hirsch, Niels Christian; Pramming, Stig Krøger
In recent years it has been estimated that the current global prevalence of type 2 diabetes amounts to about 150 million patients. Projections suggest that by the year 2025 the number of prevalent patients in the world will reach approximately 300 million. It is assumed that the increase in the n...
Urlings, N.; Korvorst, M.; Fortanier, F.N.
Current research has shown that foreign controlled enterprises are generally larger, employ more high-skilled employees and pay higher wages. However, a proper assessment of the employment consequences of firms requires consideration of longitudinal developments and demographic events such as
Indirect estimation techniques are applied to data for Bulgaria from 1891 to 1958 to assess trends in population dynamics. An interdisciplinary approach is suggested for the study of countries where data are often incomplete. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)
Quintana-Gonzales, Asencio; Dirección Ejecutiva de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Funciones Motoras, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitador.; Sotomayor-Espichan, Rosa; Departamento de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Lesiones Medulares, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitado.; Martínez-Romero, María; Departamento de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Lesiones Medulares, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitador.; Kuroki-García, César; Departamento de Investigación, Docencia y Rehabilitación Integral en Unidad Motora y Dolor, Instituto Nacional de Rehabilitación. Callao, Perú. Médico Rehabilitador.
We performed a retrospective and descriptive cross-sectional; study in 210 hospitalized patients with spinal cord injury at the National Institute of Rehabilitation (INR), Callao, Peru from 2000-2006. The goal was to describe etiology, and clinical and socio-demographic characteristics of non traumatic spinal cord injuries (LMNT). We found a prevalence of 27 % for LMNT, average age at onset of 32.0 years, male gender 50.5 %, and secondary education completed in 41.9 %, poverty 90.5 %. The inf...
Both mismatch distribution analyses and neutrality tests suggested a late Pleistocene or Holocene population expansion (12,100 – 28,500 years ago) for the species, which was consistent with the geological period of formation of the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. These results indicated that F. chinensis in the Yellow Sea and ...
epidemiologic surveillance, vide the nursing care required by an exten- microbiology support is required for diagno-v sively burned patient is one of the...MA. Pittsburgh bur study. 28. Purdue GF, Hunt JL, Prescott PR. Child abuse bynig an iandnci o, suspiciro JA Traumarg 1988 t Pittsburgh and Allegheny
Cho, Sangmi; Bae, Sung-Woo
This study attempted to identify emotional problems and examine the related demographic and psychosocial factors of 340 Korean American adolescents in a major metropolitan area. Results revealed that lower GPA, longer length of residence in the United States, subjects' poor self-esteem, greater severity of conflict with parents, and poor…
Hogerwerf, Lenny; Courcoul, Aurélie; Klinkenberg, Don; Beaudeau, François; Vergu, Elisabeta; Nielen, Mirjam
Between 2007 and 2009, the largest human Q fever epidemic ever described occurred in the Netherlands. The source was traced back to dairy goat farms, where abortion storms had been observed since 2005. Since one putative cause of these abortion storms is the intensive husbandry systems in which the goats are kept, the objective of this study was to assess whether these could be explained by herd size, reproductive pattern and other demographic aspects of Dutch dairy goat herds alone. We adapted an existing, fully parameterized simulation model for Q fever transmission in French dairy cattle herds to represent the demographics typical for Dutch dairy goat herds. The original model represents the infection dynamics in a herd of 50 dairy cows after introduction of a single infected animal; the adapted model has 770 dairy goats. For a full comparison, herds of 770 cows and 50 goats were also modeled. The effects of herd size and goat versus cattle demographics on the probability of and time to extinction of the infection, environmental bacterial load and abortion rate were studied by simulation. The abortion storms could not be fully explained by demographics alone. Adequate data were lacking at the moment to attribute the difference to characteristics of the pathogen, host, within-herd environment, or a combination thereof. The probability of extinction was higher in goat herds than in cattle herds of the same size. The environmental contamination was highest within cattle herds, which may be taken into account when enlarging cattle farming systems.
Roy, L; Guimond, E
"Demographic perspectives form an integral part in the development of electric load forecasts. These forecasts in turn are used to justify the addition and repair of generating facilities that will supply power in the coming decades. The goal of this article is to present how demographic perspectives are incorporated into the electric load forecasting in Quebec. The first part presents the methods, hypotheses and results of population and household projections used by Hydro-Quebec in updating its latest development plan. The second section demonstrates applications of such demographic projections for forecasting the electric load, with a focus on the residential sector." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) excerpt
% (13) of which were confirmed as territory-holding individuals. We present a simple model to predict population growth using the above data, and discuss implications for the creation of additional self-sustaining populations on suitable islands.
Lambert, Brad A.; Schorr, Robert A.; Schneider, Scott C.; Muths, Erin L.
Effective conservation of rare species requires an understanding of how potential threats affect population dynamics. Unfortunately, information about population demographics prior to threats (i.e., baseline data) is lacking for many species. Perturbations, caused by climate change, disease, or other stressors can lead to population declines and heightened conservation concerns. Boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) have undergone rangewide declines due mostly to the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), with only a few sizable populations remaining in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA, that are disease-free. Despite the apparent region-wide occurrence of Bd, our focal populations in central Colorado were disease free over a 14-year capture-mark-recapture study until the recent discovery of Bd at one of the sites. We used recapture data and the Pradel reverse-time model to assess the influence of environmental and site-specific conditions on survival and recruitment. We then forecast changes in the toad populations with 2 growth models; one using an average lambda value to initiate the projection, and one using the most recent value to capture potential effects of the incursion of disease into the system. Adult survival was consistently high at the 3 sites, whereas recruitment was more variable and markedly low at 1 site. We found that active season moisture, active season length, and breeding shallows were important factors in estimating recruitment. Population growth models indicated a slight increase at 1 site but decreasing trends at the 2 other sites, possibly influenced by low recruitment. Insight into declining species management can be gained from information on survival and recruitment and how site-specific environmental factors influence these demographic parameters. Our data are particularly useful because they provide baseline data on demographics in populations before a disease outbreak and enhance our ability to detect changes in population parameters potentially caused by the disease.
This study used an adapted version of Zhang's (2004) trust questionnaire to examine perceived characteristic and trust differences between coach and athlete dyads that differ in gender or ethnicity as well as in dyads that were similar. The four different gender dyad groups were male athlete with male coach (MAMC), ...
Schlosser, S; Black, D W; Repertinger, S; Freet, D
Compulsive buying has been generally ignored in the psychiatric literature, although it is apparently frequent, underrecognized, and can lead to severe financial and legal consequences for its sufferers. The current investigation was designed to assess the overall life-style and problems of subjects identified as compulsive shoppers. Forty-six compulsive buyers were assessed for comorbid psychiatric disorders with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule, the Structured Interview for DSM-III-R Personality Disorders, and a semistructured interview to assess buying behavior. The typical shopper was a 31-year-old female who had developed compulsive buying at age 18 years. Subjects spent their money on clothing, shoes, and records/compact discs. The average debt load accrued was $5,422 out of an average yearly income of $23,443. More than two-thirds met lifetime criteria for a major (Axis I) mental disorder, most commonly anxiety, substance abuse, and mood disorders. Nearly 60% were found to meet criteria for a DSM-III-R personality disorder, most commonly the obsessive-compulsive, borderline, and avoidant types. The authors conclude that compulsive buying is a definable clinical syndrome which can cause its sufferers significant distress and is associated with significant psychiatric comorbidity.
Alicia S. Goicoechea
Full Text Available Fertility, mortality and migration data from four Mapuche Indian communities located along a 215-km NE-SW linear area in the Province of Río Negro, Argentina, were collated with genetic information furnished by nine blood group systems and by mtDNA haplogroups. The demographic and genetic data indicated a clear dichotomy, which split the four populations into two groups of two. Differing degrees of non-Indian exchanges was probably the main determining factor for this separation. Total genetic variability was very similar in all groups, and the interpopulational variability accounted for only 10% of the total variability. A low prevalence of the Diego(a antigen among the Mapuche was confirmed. The fact that significant genetic heterogeneity and population clusters were found in such a small territorial region attests to the sensitivity of demographic and genetic approaches in unraveling human history.Dados relativos a fertilidade, mortalidade e migração de quatro comunidades de índios Mapuche localizadas em uma área linear na direção nordeste-sudoeste com 215 km de extensão na Província de Rio Negro, Argentina, foram associados com a informação genética fornecida por nove sistemas de grupos sangüíneos e os haplogrupos do DNA mitocondrial. Ambos os tipos de informação apontam claramente para uma dicotomia, as quatro populações sendo divididas em grupos de duas. O principal fator responsável por esta separação é provavelmente graus diferentes de mistura com não-índios. A variabilidade genética total foi muito similar em todos os grupos, aquela entre populações sendo de apenas 10% deste valor. Foi confirmada a baixa prevalência do antígeno Diego(a entre os Mapuche. O fato de que heterogeneidade genética significativa e conjuntos populacionais diversos foram observados em uma região territorial tão pequena demonstra a sensibilidade dos enfoques demográfico e genético no esclarecimento da história humana.
Groucutt, Huw S; Petraglia, Michael D
As a geographic connection between Africa and the rest of Eurasia, the Arabian Peninsula occupies a central position in elucidating hominin evolution and dispersals. Arabia has been characterized by extreme environmental fluctuation in the Quaternary, with profound evolutionary and demographic consequences. Despite the importance of the region, Arabia remains understudied. Recent years, however, have seen major developments in environmental studies and archeology, revealing that the region contains important records that should play a significant role in future paleoanthropological narratives.(1-3) The emerging picture of Arabia suggests that numerous dispersals of hominin populations into the region occurred. Populations subsequently followed autochthonous trajectories, creating a distinctive regional archeological record. Debates continue on the respective roles of regional hominin extinctions and population continuity, with the latter suggesting adaptation to arid conditions. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Full Text Available Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing. These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults, annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years and females (21.8 years. Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches, supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes.
Full Text Available Background: The pace of aging is a concept that captures the time-related aspect of aging. It formalizesthe idea of a characteristic life span or intrinsic population time scale. In the rapidly developing field of comparative biodemography, measures that account for inter-speciesdifferences in life span are needed to compare how species age. Objective: We aim to provide a mathematical foundation for the concept of pace. We derive desiredmathematical properties of pace measures and suggest candidates which satisfy these properties. Subsequently, we introduce the concept of pace-standardization, which reveals differences in demographic quantities that are not due to pace. Examples and consequences are discussed. Conclusions: Mean life span (i.e., life expectancy from birth or from maturity is intuitively appealing,theoretically justified, and the most appropriate measure of pace. Pace-standardizationprovides a serviceable method for comparative aging studies to explore differences indemographic patterns of aging across species, and it may considerably alter conclusionsabout the strength of aging.
Acerbi, A.; Kendal, J.; Tehrani, J.
We investigate the relationship between cultural complexity and population size in a non-technological cultural domain for which we have suitable quantitative records: folktales. We define three levels of complexity for folk narratives: the number of tale types, the number of narrative motifs, and,
Such demographic factors in Europe as low fertility rates, high life expectancy, and the restricted immigration policy have caused European societies to age rapidly and the population of Europe will...
Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain
Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human impacts (laying the foundation for modeling approaches), supporting predictions of evolutionary theory regarding demographic responses to ecological processes.
Egbert, Robert L.
Five demographic myths related to education pose dangers to educational planning and thinking. The first myth says the return of service personnel after World War II caused the baby boom. Actually the baby boom began in 1939 and was not related to service personnel. The second myth claims the Great Depression decreased the birth and fertility…
Zabel, Cynthia J.; Salmons, Susan E.; Forsman, Eric D.; DeStefano, Stephen; Raphael, Martin G.; Gutierrez, R.J.
Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) are associated with lower elevation, commercially valuable, late-successional coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest. Meta-analyses of demographic parameters indicate that Northern Spotted Owl populations are declining throughout their range (Anderson and Burnham 1992, Burnham et al. this volume). Recent research has attempted to determine whether management activities have affected the viability of Spotted Owl populations, and results have led to development of conservation plans for the species (Dawson et al. 1987, Thomas et al. 1990, Murphy and Noon 1992, USDI 1992, Thomas et al. 1993b).In the Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl (USDI 1992b) threats to the species were identified as small population sizes, declining populations, limited amounts of habitat, continued loss and fragmentation of habitat, geographically isolated populations, and predation and competition from other avian species. Weather and fire are natural processes that also may affect reproductive success of Spotted Owls. Weather may be a factor in the high annual variability in fecundity of Spotted Owls, as has been suggested for other predatory bird species (Newton, 1979, 1986). However, these factors have not been addressed in previous studies of Spotted Owls.Our objectives were to estimate survival, fecundity, and annual rates of population change (l) for resident, territorial female Spotted Owls at two study areas in the coastal mountains of southwestern Oregon. We tested if the amount of rainfall was correlated with reproduction of Spotted Owls. While surveying for Spotted Owls, we documented the increased presence of Barred Owls (Strix varia), a potential competitor of Spotted Owls.
Fairchild, Susan; Tobias, Robert; Corcoran, Sean; Djukic, Maja; Kovner, Christine; Noguera, Pedro
Data on the impact of student, teacher, and principal racial and gender composition in urban schools on teacher work outcomes are limited. This study, a secondary data analysis of White and Black urban public school teachers using data taken from the restricted use 2003-04 Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS), examines the effects of relational…
Sampaio, Michelle C; Picó, F Xavier; Scarano, Fabio R
Restingas are sandy coastal plains that stand between the sea and the Brazilian Atlantic forest mountains. The predominant restinga vegetation type in northern Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, is characterized by the formation of islands that begins with colonization by some pioneer herbs and/or woody plants. Pioneer plants are stress-resistant and nurse many other less-resistant plant species. Determining the spatiotemporal variation in the dynamics of nurse plants is essential to understand the ecological functioning of restingas as a whole. The goal of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in population dynamics of the nurse bromeliad Aechmea nudicaulis. We monitored A. nudicaulis ramets in different habitats, microhabitats, and years. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in demographic traits and in population growth rate. Results showed young ramet traits were more variable at the microhabitat level, and when variable, vegetative ramet traits varied at all spatiotemporal scales. Overall, λ values indicated that A. nudicaulis basically remained spatiotemporally stable as most of the λ values did not significantly differ from unity. Hence, the stability of A. nudicaulis in different microhabitats and habitats in the restinga may create several settlement opportunities for many other less-resistant species.
Shalet, S M
In the UK, through the use of a forced economic model, endocrinologists are in the curious position of offering GH replacement to some patients with severe GH deficiency (GHD) but withholding it from other patients with even more severe GHD. This approach is counter-intuitive to endocrine practice in treating endocrine deficiency states. For all other endocrine deficiencies, one would opt for treating those with the most severe biochemical evidence of deficiency first. If this endocrine approach was applied to adult GH replacement in an era of rationing, one would start with the GHD patients with a pathologically low IGF1 level. Given that the prevalence of subnormal IGF1 levels in a GHD population is age-dependent, this would result in GH replacement being offered to more young adult onset (AO) GHD and childhood onset GHD adults, and less often to middle-aged and elderly AO GHD adults. This in itself has the added advantage that the skeletal benefits appear more real in the former cohort of patients.
Meltzer, E O; Tyrell, R J; Rich, D; Wood, C C
The economics of medications are now of great concern to health-care providers. Pharmacoeconomic issues are by no means simple, and yet, ironically, they assume greater importance in prescribing for modest disorders like rhinorrhea than for life-threatening conditions. The therapeutic continuum of quality and cost becomes foreshortened, and safety is an additional concern. Choosing the appropriate medication for rhinorrhea, then, can pose a challenge to the clinician, just as choosing a vital medication. This paper reviews the usage, quality, and cost of major therapies for the rhinorrhea that occurs secondary to various conditions, including nasal steroids, antihistamines and anticholinergics, and discusses the role of the clinician in factoring costs into therapy.
Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (1) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (2) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with 'optimal' policies. 62 refs
Healthcare economics deals with the concepts of direct, indirect and intangible costs and the interrelated timeframes. Using two concrete examples, the author will examine the utilization patterns of direct and indirect costs and take a look at the participants who might be interested in a quick and intentional death.
Green, A; Barker, C
Scarce resources for health require a process for setting priorities. The exact mechanism chosen has important implications for the type of priorities and plans set, and in particular their relationship to the principles of primary health care. One technique increasingly advocated as an aid to priority setting is economic appraisal. It is argued however that economic appraisal is likely to reinforce a selective primary health care approach through its espousal of a technocratic medical model and through its hidden but implicit value judgements. It is suggested that urgent attention is needed to develop approaches to priority setting that incorporate the strengths of economic appraisal, but that are consistent with comprehensive primary health care.
This article surveys 10 introductory economics textbooks to examine whether and how economics contributed to the rise of neoliberalism. It defines neoliberalism as a political rationality characterized by market constructivism. In contrast with conventional liberal approaches that view limited
Reagle, Joseph M. Jr.
This paper is included in the First Monday Special Issue #3: Internet banking, e-money, and Internet gift economies, published in December 2005. Special Issue editor Mark A. Fox asked authors to submit additional comments regarding their articles. This paper was certainly a creature of its time. A decade ago the Internet bubble was receiving its first puffs of exaggerated exuberance. For me, this time was also informed by Barlow's A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace and more i...
... during their ﬁnal days and weeks without enduring ﬁnancial hardship. I hope that I am able, through this book, to help all Americans be so fortunate. I would also like to acknowledge the research sup...
In Alberta, utility companies are placing increasing attention on demand-side management (DSM) as one option for meeting future demand. Some basic economic principles are provided to yield a guideline on how much a utility should be spending on DSM initiatives. For the case of financial incentives to customers, it is shown that subsidies based on sound economic principles will enable the utility to charge lower overall rates to customers receiving the subsidy without raising other customers' rates. Moving outside of a well-understood market-based system and into a fully centralized planning approach to DSM eliminates a critical link between utilities and their customers. In Alberta, DSM measures appropriate in other regions will not be appropriate due to the province's unique supply and demand characteristics. Most of Alberta's electricity supply comes from low-cost coal-fired plants. On the demand-side, there is a significant concentration of large industrial and commercial consumers, notably in the oil and gas industry, and there is essentially no demand for electric heating in homes since natural gas is very abundant. The Alberta integrated power system currently operates at a load factor of ca 77%, reflecting the large industrial demand and the absence of a winter peaking effect associated with electrical heating requirements. A relatively small difference in embedded and incremental electricity supply costs means that utilities have little to spend on DSM programs. The identification of cost-effective DSM opportunities, most of which are likely to be found in the industrial sector, requires a considerable amount of detailed information on consumer behavior and close collaboration between utility and customer
Petersen, Margrethe; Shaw, Philip
or publishability. Simultaneously language-policy scholars have problematised the predominance of English in many academic fields. There is of course a great deal of individual variation in terms of language choice and publication success. We investigated the writing practices of some 75 Danish academics in various...... to the predominance of English. We identified : a wide range of attitudes to the difficulty of writing in L2; practices associated with successful writing; fields in which international publication was more or less important; and a general reliance on implicit knowledge and intuitive learning, in contrast......Product-oriented analyses have shown that academic English (the predominant L2 in their environment: Phillipson and Skuttnab-Kongas 1995) written by Scandinavian writers differs from that of L1 English writers in ways that might work to the disadvantage of the writers in terms of recognition...
Bruno de Finetti is possibly the best known Italian applied mathematician of the 20th century, but was he really just a mathematician? Looking at his papers it is always possible to find original and pioneering contributions to the various fields he was interested in, where he always put his mathematical "formamentis" and skills at the service of the applications, often extending standard theories and models in order to achieve more general results. Many contributions are also devoted to educational issues, in mathematics in general and in probability and statistics in particular.He really thought that mathematics and, in particular, those topics related to uncertainty, should enter in everyday life as a useful support to everyone's decision making. He always imagined and lived mathematics as a basic tool both for better understanding and describing complex phenomena and for helping decision makers in assuming coherent and feasible actions. His many important contributions to the theory of probability and to mathematical statistics are well known all over the world, thus, in the following, minor, but still pioneering, aspects of his work, related both to theory and to applications of mathematical tools, and to his work in the field of education and training of teachers, are presented. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
DeVane, Ben; Durga, Shree; Squire, Kurt
Over the past several years, educators have been exploring the potential of immersive interactive simulations, or video games for education, finding that games can support the development of disciplinary knowledge, systemic thinking, the production of complex multimodal digital artifacts, and participation in affinity spaces or sites of collective…
The very existence of nuclear weapons gives rise to the pursuit of them. They are seen as a source of global influence, and are valued for their perceived deterrent effect. And as long as some countries possess them (or are protected by them in alliances) and others do not, this asymmetry breeds chronic global insecurity. The present nuclear-arms-control regime is looking battered. But any reform of that regime must begin by conceiving a framework of collective security that does not rely on nuclear deterrence. The rise of terrorist groups makes this essential. A nuclear deterrent is clearly ineffective against such groups; they have no cities that can be bombed in reply, nor are they focused on self-preservation. Moreover, their constantly shifting targets and modes of attack demand a more co-operative and flexible international response. The 'war on terror' should provide an impetus to work towards a global security culture that will serve the interests of all countries equally, and will make reliance on nuclear weapons obsolete
Jefferson, Philip N.; Magenheim, Ellen
Data from the National Science Foundation (2014) indicate that at least one PhD in economics was awarded to a Swarthmore College graduate in every year since 1966. The authors' purpose in this article is to consider factors that may have contributed to the high number of PhDs in economics awarded to Swarthmore College graduates. While there is…
Martin Peitz; Patrick Waelbroeck
In this guide, we discuss the impact of digitalization on the music industry. We rely on market and survey data at the international level as well as expert statements from the industry. The guide investigates recent developments in legal and technological protection of digital music and describes new business models as well as consumers' attitude towards music downloads and audio-streaming. We conclude the guide by a discussion of the evolution of the music industry.
Krzysztof T. Konecki
Full Text Available The goal of the paper is to present the Buddhist approach to the economy and what we can learn from it. It demonstrates David Loy’s analysis of the meaning of money from the Buddhist perspective. Money becomes a reality symbol and an ego symbol. The paper also presents some conclusions from analysis of Buddhist prescriptions to the economic system according to Frederic Pryor. Stress is put on compassion and ethics, which show the ubiquitous interconnectedness that works for the well-being of the whole society/societies. The Buddhist approach to the economy is connected with pro-social values and compassion, and this paper looks at the contemporary economy and society from this point of view. Contemporary organizations are based on the greed, which is a feature not only of individuals but also of institutions (institutionalized greed. Work on the self-ego is an important practice (contemplation, mindfulness practice and meditation in limiting or eliminating greediness in the social and economic system in which we are immersed, but usually not aware of.
van Zomeren, Martijn; Leach, Colin Wayne; Spears, Russell
To explain the psychology behind individuals' motivation to participate in collective action against collective disadvantage (e.g., protest marches), the authors introduce a dynamic dual pathway model of approach coping that integrates many common explanations of collective action (i.e., group
Full Text Available Do economics students behave more selfishly than other students? Experiments involving monetary allocations suggest so. This article investigates the underlying motives for the economic students' more selfish behavior by separating three potential explanatory mechanisms: economics students are less concerned with fairness when making allocation decisions; have a different notion of what is fair in allocations; or are more skeptical about other people's allocations, which in turn makes them less willing to comply with a shared fairness norm. The three mechanisms were tested by inviting students from various disciplines to participate in a relatively novel experimental game and asking all participants to give reasons for their choices. Compared with students of other disciplines, economics students were about equally likely to mention fairness in their comments; had a similar notion of what was fair in the situation; however, they expected lower offers, made lower offers, and were less willing to enforce compliance with a fair allocation at a cost to themselves. The economics students' lower expectations mediated their allocation decisions, suggesting that economics students behaved more selfishly because they expected others not to comply with the shared fairness norm.
Neave, Henry R
For three decades, Henry Neave's Statistics Tables has been the gold standard for all students taking an introductory statistical methods course as part of their wider degree in a host of disciplines including mathematics, economics, business and management, geography and psychology. The period has seen a large increase in the level of mathematics and statistics required to achieve these qualifications and Statistics Tables has helped several generations of students meet their goals.All the features of the first edition are retained including the full range of best-known standard statistical t
van den Berg, Marcel; de Nooij, Michiel
The ambition to host mega sports events is (or can be) perfectly justifiable with various arguments. The most persistently used argument is the supposed financial or direct economic gain for the host economy, of which the compelling body of evidence is discouraging. This implies that the
Full Text Available The article presents practical aspects of case-method usage in the process of researching social responsibility of business. The paper also gives a detailed insight into a situational exercise on the level of its constituting elements. Case-method has been characterized in terms of its peculiarities and the advantages, and in comparison to the traditional teaching methods. This article also presents a scenario of a situational exercise «Our daily bread», which has been prepared as a result of authors’ participation in the state programme «the Ukrainian Initiative», which presupposed training at the enterprises in Germany.
Ho Fai Chan; Bruno S. Frey; Jana Gallus; Markus Schaffner; Benno Torgler; Stephen Whyte
External prominence (measured by the number of pages indexed on search engines or TED talk invitations) can be capitalized on the speakers' market while research performance (measured by publication and citation indicators) cannot. There is thus a clear distinction between the capitalization of external and internal prominence. Success through authorship of books is also positively correlated with speaking fees, however once we control for external prominence the statistical significance disa...
Imbens, Guido W.
In Shadish (2010) and West and Thoemmes (2010), the authors contrasted 2 approaches to causality. The first originated in the psychology literature and is associated with work by Campbell (e.g., Shadish, Cook, & Campbell, 2002), and the second has its roots in the statistics literature and is associated with work by Rubin (e.g., Rubin, 2006). In…
Horton, John J; Tambe, Prasanna
This article describes how the fine-grained data being collected by Internet labor market intermediaries, such as employment websites, online labor markets, and knowledge discussion boards, are providing new research opportunities and directions for the empirical analysis of labor market activity. After discussing these data sources, we examine some of the research opportunities they have created, highlight some examples of existing work that already use these new data sources, and enumerate the challenges associated with the use of these corporate data sources.
James W. Perkinson
Full Text Available The following essay investigates the animating force of jester-humour and trickster-critique as necessary components of prophetic consciousness and social movement. Climate change devastation coupled with racialised socio-economic predation today faces social movement with a stark demand. The root-work necessary enjoins challenge of human presumption about the meaning of life at the most basic level. The locus from which such a depth-exploration will be elaborated here is postindustrial Detroit, on the part of a poet-activist-educator who will insist that ‘jesterism’ as ‘prophetic animation’ cannot merely be ‘talked about’, but begs performance and embodiment – even in the process of writing and theorising. Indigenous wisdom and folk spirituality will supply historical perspective in asserting laughter as both antidote to trauma and tactic of critique – whether looking at traditional African practices of tricksterism reincarnate in everyday street life in Detroit, medieval Christian celebrations of the Feast of Fools subverting official Church orthodoxies in feudal Europe, or the postmodern insurgence of hip-hop beats and tags in challenging corporate gentrification and church capitulation at the emblematic heart of de-industrialisation.
A. I. Simonov
Full Text Available Introduction: The approaches to understanding the crisis of culture in the context of Russian philosophical thought at the turn of the 19th-20th centuries are considered in this article. The relevance of the topic of the article is in similarity of spiritual situation in that era and in modern Russia.Materials and methods: The research material is a tripartite structure that characterizes the crisis of culture; “Russian spiritual tradition” – criticism of cultural progress in the second half of the 19th century - the Apocalyptica of culture of the Silver Age.In the article the methodology of historical and philosophical analysis is used, combined with the practice of a phenomenological description of cultural phenomena and the spiritual history of the country. From the methodological point of view it is a question of revealing of philosophical and culturological aspect of the problem. Such categories as “progress” and relationship between “good” and “evil” in the context of culture are studied there.Results: In the process of disclosure of these categories, their positive and negative sides are examined which gives an insight into the spiritual state of culture and the ways of finding new worldview and value paradigms for it. The result of the article is the formulation of an understanding of Russian culture and thought in the second half of the XIXth and XXth centuries that it has one of the main and fundamental themes – the theme of the end of the world and history.Discussion and Conclusions: Within the framework of disclosure of the stated problems it offers the analysis optics according to which the crisis state of culture is investigated in terms of the categories of Christian Apocalypse. At the same time historical, cultural and ethical problems are revealed in the development of Russian philosophy.
How and where did apocalyptic literature originate? What is the relation between apocalyptic literature on the one hand, and prophesy and wisdom literature on the other? Should apocalyptic literature be regarded as a deviation from prophetic literature, or is it a linear development thereof? Wherein lies the difference between prophetic and apocalyptic eschatology? In this artcle a literary study is done to find answers to these questions and it is concluded that apocalypticism does not have a single dominant origin, but that its origins lie in a complexity of factors. The researcher can find a description of these factors only in each unique apocalyptic work. Many historical and cultural factors played a role in the origin of apocalyptic works. A single social background cannot be posited for apocalyptic literature either. The worldview expressed by apocalyptic works does not necessarily represent that of marginalized groups as apocalypticism is rather a way of thinking which permeated the entire Jewish community.
Ken Lee appointed to the staff of the Nuffield Centre, University of Leeds, as Lecturer in Health Economics in 1970. He is now Senior Lecturer and Director of the Master's Programme in Health Service Studies. His main teaching interests are in health planning and health economics, and he has carried out research and written extensively on approaches to health economics, health planning and management, care of the elderly, primary health care, health financing, and emergency health services.
Ruttan, Vernon W.
Since their emergence as a distinct fields of inquiry in the early post World War II period there has been an uneasy relationship between growth economics and development economics. The emergence of a richer new growth economics' has opened up the possibilities of a more fruitful dialogue between the two subdisciplines. In spite of recent advances, particularly with respect to the human capital, and understanding of differences in growth rates and income levels across countries remains elusiv...
Full Text Available One of the significant problems of a modern economy and economics is political risk. A destructive influence of politics on the financial market cannot be ignored. It is necessary to indicate some selected specific problems of the financial market connected with politics in the area of: public finance (including EU, monetary policy and capital market. Nowadays, the scale and dynamics of political interference in the economy and finance leads to the problem of rationality in business activities. Moreover, many hidden political factors change the political risk into immeasurable political uncertainty.
Full Text Available In this Manifesto, we make a set of proposals to fight unemployment in EU. We believe that the European unemployment problem needs to be attacked on two fronts: through a broad spectrum of supply-side policies and the de-mand management policy. The expansion of aggregate demand is necessary to increase both investment and employment. However, unless supply-side measures are also taken, demand expansion can result in more inflation in-stead of more employment, because of the mismatch between the demand and supply of labour. What is important to stress is that both demand- and supply-side policies must be adopted together by all European countries, in order both to avoid beggar-my-neighbour problems and, at the same time, to catch all the possible complementary effects of these policies. JEL Codes: E24, E60, J30, J60
Michael K. Young; Daniel J. Isaak; Kevin S. McKelvey; Taylor M. Wilcox; Daniel M. Bingham; Kristine L. Pilgrim; Kellie J. Carim; Matthew R. Campbell; Matthew P. Corsi; Dona L. Horan; David E. Nagel; Michael K. Schwartz
Among the many threats posed by invasions of nonnative species is introgressive hybridization, which can lead to the genomic extinction of native taxa. This phenomenon is regarded as common and perhaps inevitable among native cutthroat trout and introduced rainbow trout in western North America, despite that these taxa naturally co-occur in some locations. We conducted...
Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan
Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...
Richard T. Reynolds; Jeffrey S. Lambert; Curtis H. Flather; Gary C. White; Benjamin J. Bird; L. Scott Baggett; Carrie Lambert; Shelley Bayard De Bolo
The Nearctic northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillis) is a resident of conifer, broadleaf, and mixed forests from the boreal to the southwestern montane regions of North America. We report on a 20-year mark-recapture investigation (1991-2010) of the distribution and density of breeders, temporal and spatial variability in breeding, nestling sex ratios, local...
Roč. 15, č. 6 (2013), s. 963-970 ISSN 1435-8603 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : closely related species * flax * habitat occupancy Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 2.405, year: 2013
Ortuno Perez, S.; Garcia Robredo, F.; Ayuga Tellez, E.; Fullana Belda, C.
Aim of study: The aim of this work is to test the positive effect of a substantially developed resin sector on rural demographic evolution. This work shows how in the period between 1970 and 2010 the demographic decline in the interior regions of Spain was more pronounced in areas characterized by the importance of resin-producing forest stands compared to other nearby rural municipalities where this natural resource is not present. Area of study: The study area consists of a set of rural municipalities in Central Spain, both resin and non-resin producing, in the provinces of Segovia, Avila, Valladolid, Burgos, Soria, Cuenca and Guadalajara. Material and methods: The relationship between resin production and population in resin and non-resin producing municipalities was modeled by means of linear regression analysis. Main results: Generally speaking, between 1950 and 1970 the production of resin halted demographic decline in the regions where this activity was substantially developed. However, when the resin sector entered into crisis in the 1970s, and the economic repercussions of this activity gradually ceased to be felt, the demographic decline in the regions which had been involved in resin production was much more acute than in other non-resin-producing rural areas. Research highlights: This work shows the relationship between resin extraction activity and population evolution in rural municipalities. Sustainable resin exploitation can contribute to the maintenance and development of rural communities, and should be used as a tool for generating employment in rural areas. (Author) 37 refs.
Turner, Wendy C.; Versfeld, Wilferd D.; Kilian, J. Werner; Getz, Wayne M.
Summary 1. Seasonality of rainfall can exert a strong influence on animal condition and on host-parasite interactions. The body condition of ruminants fluctuates seasonally in response to changes in energy requirements, foraging patterns and resource availability, and seasonal variation in parasite infections may further alter ruminant body condition. 2. This study disentangles effects of rainfall and gastrointestinal parasite infections on springbok (Antidorcas marsupialis) body condition and determines how these factors vary among demographic groups. 3. Using data from four years and three study areas, we investigated i) the influence of rainfall variation, demographic factors and parasite interactions on parasite prevalence or infection intensity, ii) whether parasitism or rainfall is a more important predictor of springbok body condition and iii) how parasitism and condition vary among study areas along a rainfall gradient. 4. We found that increased parasite intensity is associated with reduced body condition only for adult females. For all other demographic groups, body condition was significantly related to prior rainfall and not to parasitism. Rainfall lagged by two months had a positive effect on body condition. 5. Adult females showed evidence of a “periparturient rise” in parasite intensity, and had higher parasite intensity and lower body condition than adult males after parturition and during early lactation. After juveniles were weaned, adult females had lower parasite intensity than adult males. Sex differences in parasitism and condition may be due to differences between adult females and males in the seasonal timing of reproductive effort and its effects on host immunity, as well as documented sex differences in vulnerability to predation. 6. Our results highlight that parasites and the environment can synergistically affect host populations, but that these interactions might be masked by their interwoven relationships, their differential impacts on demographic groups, and the different time scales at which they operate. PMID:21831195
We investigated the metapopulation structure of the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense) using a combination of indirect and direct methods to evaluate two key requirements of modern metapopulation models: 1) that patches support somewhat independent populations ...
Servanty, Sabrina; Converse, Sarah J.; Bailey, Larissa L.
The reintroduction of threatened and endangered species is now a common method for reestablishing populations. Typically, a fundamental objective of reintroduction is to establish a self-sustaining population. Estimation of demographic parameters in reintroduced populations is critical, as these estimates serve multiple purposes. First, they support evaluation of progress toward the fundamental objective via construction of population viability analyses (PVAs) to predict metrics such as probability of persistence. Second, PVAs can be expanded to support evaluation of management actions, via management modeling. Third, the estimates themselves can support evaluation of the demographic performance of the reintroduced population, e.g., via comparison with wild populations. For each of these purposes, thorough treatment of uncertainties in the estimates is critical. Recently developed statistical methods - namely, hierarchical Bayesian implementations of state-space models - allow for effective integration of different types of uncertainty in estimation. We undertook a demographic estimation effort for a reintroduced population of endangered whooping cranes with the purpose of ultimately developing a Bayesian PVA for determining progress toward establishing a self-sustaining population, and for evaluating potential management actions via a Bayesian PVA-based management model. We evaluated individual and temporal variation in demographic parameters based upon a multi-state mark-recapture model. We found that survival was relatively high across time and varied little by sex. There was some indication that survival varied by release method. Survival was similar to that observed in the wild population. Although overall reproduction in this reintroduced population is poor, birds formed social pairs when relatively young, and once a bird was in a social pair, it had a nearly 50% chance of nesting the following breeding season. Also, once a bird had nested, it had a high probability of nesting again. These results are encouraging considering that survival and reproduction have been major challenges in past reintroductions of this species. The demographic estimates developed will support construction of a management model designed to facilitate exploration of management actions of interest, and will provide critical guidance in future planning for this reintroduction. An approach similar to what we describe could be usefully applied to many reintroduced populations.
When sequencing an ancient DNA sample from a hominin fossil, DNA from present-day humans involved in excavation and extraction will be sequenced along with the endogenous material. This type of contamination is problematic for downstream analyses as it will introduce a bias towards the population of the contaminating individual(s). Quantifying the extent of contamination is a crucial step as it allows researchers to account for possible biases that may arise in downstream genetic analyses. Here, we present an MCMC algorithm to co-estimate the contamination rate, sequencing error rate and demographic parameters—including drift times and admixture rates—for an ancient nuclear genome obtained from human remains, when the putative contaminating DNA comes from present-day humans. We assume we have a large panel representing the putative contaminant population (e.g. European, East Asian or African). The method is implemented in a C++ program called ‘Demographic Inference with Contamination and Error’ (DICE). We applied it to simulations and genome data from ancient Neanderthals and modern humans. With reasonable levels of genome sequence coverage (>3X), we find we can recover accurate estimates of all these parameters, even when the contamination rate is as high as 50%. PMID:27049965
Unterländer, Martina; Palstra, Friso; Lazaridis, Iosif; Pilipenko, Aleksandr; Hofmanová, Zuzana; Groß, Melanie; Sell, Christian; Blöcher, Jens; Kirsanow, Karola; Rohland, Nadin; Rieger, Benjamin; Kaiser, Elke; Schier, Wolfram; Pozdniakov, Dimitri; Khokhlov, Aleksandr; Georges, Myriam; Wilde, Sandra; Powell, Adam; Heyer, Evelyne; Currat, Mathias; Reich, David; Samashev, Zainolla; Parzinger, Hermann; Molodin, Vyacheslav I.; Burger, Joachim
During the 1st millennium before the Common Era (BCE), nomadic tribes associated with the Iron Age Scythian culture spread over the Eurasian Steppe, covering a territory of more than 3,500 km in breadth. To understand the demographic processes behind the spread of the Scythian culture, we analysed genomic data from eight individuals and a mitochondrial dataset of 96 individuals originating in eastern and western parts of the Eurasian Steppe. Genomic inference reveals that Scythians in the east and the west of the steppe zone can best be described as a mixture of Yamnaya-related ancestry and an East Asian component. Demographic modelling suggests independent origins for eastern and western groups with ongoing gene-flow between them, plausibly explaining the striking uniformity of their material culture. We also find evidence that significant gene-flow from east to west Eurasia must have occurred early during the Iron Age.
Hoogland, John L.; Cully, Jack F.; Rayor, Linda S.; Fitzgerald, James P.
Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) are rare, diurnal, colonial, burrowing, ground-dwelling squirrels. Studies of marked individuals living under natural conditions in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s showed that males are heavier than females throughout the year; that adult females living in the same territory are consistently close kin; and that females usually mate with the sexually mature male(s) living in the home territory. Research from 2007 through 2010 challenges all 3 of these findings. Here we discuss how different methods might have led to the discrepancies.
The impacts of ungulates on small mammals in an East African savanna habitat were investigated by monitoring the population and community responses of small mammals on replicated 4-ha plots from which ungulates had been excluded. The dominant small mammal in this habitat is the pouched mouse, Saccostomusmearnsi, a medium-sized murid rodent. Eight other small mammal species, including Arvicanthis sp., Mus sp., Mastomys sp., Dendromus sp., Crocidura sp., and, rarely, Tatera sp., Aethomys sp., and Acomys sp., were also captured. The dominant ungulates are elephant (Loxodonta africana), giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis), Grevy's and common zebra (Equus grevyi and E. burchelli), buffalo (Syncerus cafer), eland (Taurotragus oryx), Grant's gazelle (Gazella granti), and domestic cattle. Within 1 year, S. mearnsi populations had responded dramatically to the exclusion of large mammals by a two-fold increase in density, a difference that was maintained through pronounced seasonal fluctuations in the second year. Though individual pouched mice showed no significant differences in their use of space with and without ungulates, male S. mearnsi maintained significantly higher body weights in the absence of ungulates, indicating that habitat quality had increased. One other species, Mastomys sp., also increased in the absence of ungulates. Overall, the small mammal community maintained relatively constant species diversity on the plots to which ungulates did not have access. On the plots to which ungulates did have access, on the other hand, there was a rapid 75% decrease in diversity in the control plots during one trapping session. Ungulates are most likely affecting small mammals through their effects on food quality, since there were no detectable differences in their exposure to predators, as determined by vegetative cover, in the absence of ungulates. These results demonstrate that ungulates can have strong and rapid impacts on small mammal abundance and diversity in East African savannas, an interaction which has not previously been given serious consideration.
Karraker, Nancy E; Gibbs, James P; Vonesh, James R
Deicing agents, primarily road salt, are applied to roads in 26 states in the United States and in a number of European countries, yet the scale of impacts of road salt on aquatic organisms remains largely under-studied. The issue is germane to amphibian conservation because both adult and larval amphibians are known to be particularly sensitive to changes in their osmolar environments. In this study, we combined survey, experimental, and demographic modeling approaches to evaluate the possible effects of road salt on two common vernal-pond-breeding amphibian species, the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and the wood frog (Rana sylvatica). We found that in the Adirondack Mountain Region of New York (USA), road salt traveled up to 172 m from the highway into wetlands. Surveys showed that egg mass densities of spotted salamanders (A. maculatum) and wood frogs (R. sylvatica) were two times higher in forest pools than roadside pools, but this pattern was better explained by road proximity than by increased salinity. Experiments demonstrated that embryonic and larval survival were reduced at moderate (500 muS) and high conductivities (3000 muS) in A. maculatum and at high conductivities in R. sylvatica. Demographic models suggest that such egg and larval stage effects of salt may have important impacts on populations near roads, particularly in the case of A. maculatum, for which salt exposure may lead to local extinction. For both species, the effect of road salt was dependent upon the strength of larval density dependence and declined rapidly with distance from the roadside, with the greatest negative effects being limited to within 50 m. Based on this evidence, we argue that efforts to protect local populations of A. maculatum and R. sylvatica in roadside wetlands should, in part, be aimed at reducing application of road salt near wetlands with high conductivity levels.
Full Text Available Spur-thighed tortoise is a vulnerable species. The local declines of populations led to an imperative need for conservation. Testudo graeca reaches its northern range limit in Dobrogea region, Romania. We studied a population from this region, which occupies an enclosed area of 32 ha within Histria Archaeological Complex. Based on a capture-mark-recapture study we estimated the population size of 221 ± 12.2 individuals. The observed density was 5.1 individuals/ha. The predicted population size suggests a relatively high density in relation to the area thus raising attention for a future conservation strategy. The population structure shows reduced sexual dimorphism and an unbiased sex ratio, implying a young population structure. We suggest correlating the future archaeological studies with conservation requirements of tortoises.
Maxwell, Colin S; Magwene, Paul M
The niche of microorganisms is determined by where their populations can expand. Populations can fail to grow because of high death or low birth rates, but these are challenging to measure in microorganisms. We developed a novel technique that enables single-cell measurement of age-structured birth and death rates in the budding yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and used this method to study responses to heat stress in a genetically diverse panel of strains. We find that individual cells show significant heterogeneity in their rates of birth and death during heat stress. Genotype-by-environment effects on processes that regulate asymmetric cell division contribute to this heterogeneity. These lead to either premature senescence or early life mortality during heat stress, and we find that a mitochondrial inheritance defect explains the early life mortality phenotype of one of the strains we studied. This study demonstrates how the interplay of physiology, genetic variation and environmental variables influence where microbial populations survive and flourish. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Vincetoxicum nigrum (Black Swallow-wort) and Vincetoxicum rossicum (Pale Swallow-wort) are perennial twining vines introduced from Europe. Both species have become invasive in northeastern North America in a variety of habitats. To develop parameters for a population model for evaluating potential b...
The greatest challenge today is to meet the needs of current and future generations, of a large and growing world population, without imposing catastrophic pressures on the natural environment. Meeting this challenge depends on decisive policy changes in three areas: more inclusive economic growth, greener economic growth, and population policies. This article focuses on efforts to address and harness demographic changes for sustainable development, which are largely outside the purview of the current debate. Efforts to this end must be based on the recognition that demographic changes are the cumulative result of individual choices and opportunities, and that demographic changes are best addressed through policies that enlarge these choices and opportunities, with a focus on ensuring unrestricted and universal access to sexual and reproductive health information and services, empowering women to fully participate in social, economic and political life, and investing in the education of the younger generation beyond the primary level. The article provides a strong argument for why the Programme of Action that was agreed at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) 20 years ago continues to hold important implications and lessons for the formulation of the post-2015 development agenda, which is expected to supersede the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Copyright © 2014 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
O'Neill, Dan G; Coulson, Noel R; Church, David B; Brodbelt, Dave C
The German Shepherd Dog (GSD) has been widely used for a variety of working roles. However, concerns for the health and welfare of the GSD have been widely aired and there is evidence that breed numbers are now in decline in the UK. Accurate demographic and disorder data could assist with breeding and clinical prioritisation. The VetCompass TM Programme collects clinical data on dogs under primary veterinary care in the UK. This study included all VetCompass TM dogs under veterinary care during 2013. Demographic, mortality and clinical diagnosis data on GSDs were extracted and reported. GSDs dropped from 3.5% of the annual birth cohort in 2005 to 2.2% in 2013. The median longevity of GSDs was 10.3 years (IQR 8.0-12.1, range 0.2-17.0). The most common causes of death were musculoskeletal disorder (16.3%) and inability to stand (14.9%). The most prevalent disorders recorded were otitis externa ( n = 131, 7.89, 95% CI: 6.64-9.29), osteoarthritis (92, 5.54%, 95% CI: 4.49-6.75), diarrhoea (87, 5.24%, 95% CI: 4.22-6.42), overweight/obesity (86, 5.18%, 95% CI: 4.16-6.36) and aggression (79, 4.76%, 95% CI: 3.79-5.90). This study identified that GSDs have been reducing in numbers in the UK in recent years. The most frequent disorders in GSDs were otitis externa, osteoarthritis, diarrhoea, overweight/obesity and aggression, whilst the most common causes of death were musculoskeletal disorders and inability to stand. Aggression was more prevalent in males than in females. These results may assist veterinarians to offer evidence-based advice at a breed level and help to identify priorities for GSD health that can improve the breed's health and welfare.
Ritter, Sabine; Willand, L; Reinhard, B; Offergeld, R; Hamouda, O
According to Article 22 of the Transfusion Act, the Robert Koch Institute collects and evaluates nationwide data on the prevalence and incidence of transfusion-relevant infections among blood and plasma donors in Germany. Due to revision of the Transfusion Act in 2005 not only the number of donations but also the number of donors has become available for analysis. Here we give a detailed account on the demographic profile and donation frequencies of German whole blood, plasma and platelet donors in 2006. Overall, 4 % of the German population eligible to donate were active as repeat whole blood donors in 2006; 0.3 % repeatedly donated plasma or platelets. Irrespective of the type of donation, the percentage of donors among the general population was highest among the youngest age group (18 to 24 years). While the age distribution of whole blood repeat donors roughly resembled that of the general population, with the greatest number among those aged 35 to 44, younger age groups were overrepresented among repeat plasma donors. Donation frequency varied depending on donor age and sex, with an average of 1.9 per year for whole blood donations, 11.9 for plasmapheresis and 4.0 for plateletpheresis. With the exception of the latter, men donated more frequently than women. For both sexes, donation frequency increased with age. Detailed knowledge of the demographic profile and changes in the composition of donor populations are essential for planning adequate blood supply. The data presented may serve as reference for assessing the consequences of measures that affect the number of donors and/or donations (for example changing deferral criteria) in Germany.
Nicholas B. Elliot; Samuel A. Cushman; David W. Macdonald; Andrew J. Loveridge
Concern about the effects of habitat fragmentation has led to increasing interest in dispersal and connectivity modelling. Most modern techniques for connectivity modelling have resistance surfaces as their foundation. However, resistance surfaces for animal movement are frequently estimated without considering dispersal, despite being the principal natural mechanism...
León, Vanina A; Fraschina, Jimena; Guidobono, Juan S; Busch, Maria
The main goal of the paper was to determine the habitat distribution of the house mouse (Mus musculus) within a rural landscape of Buenos Aires province, Argentina. We also studied the seasonal variation in abundance and reproductive activity. The habitats studied were poultry farms, human houses in a small village, cropfields, pastures, cropfield and pasture edges, riparian habitats (streams), railway embankments and woodlots. We captured 817 M. musculus and 690 individuals of 5 native rodent species. M. musculus was captured in poultry farms, houses, riparian habitats, cropfield and borders, but it showed a significantly higher abundance in poultry farms compared to the other habitats. Its presence outside poultry farms was significantly related to the distance to streams and poultry farms. The mean trapping success index of M. musculus did not show significant variations between periods, but the proportion of active males was significantly higher in the spring-summer period than in the autumn-winter period. All captures of M. musculus in cropfields, borders and riparian habitats occurred in the spring-summer period. The capture of M. musculus in many types of habitats suggests that it can disperse outside poultry farms, and streams may be used as corridors. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.
Full Text Available One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.
Karsten R.; Teismann H.; Vogels A.
In classical demographic theory, reproductive value and stable age distribution are proportional to the sensitivities of the asymptotic population size to changes in mortality and maternity, respectively. In this note we point out that analogous relationships hold if the maternity function is allowed to depend on the population density. The relevant formulae can essentially be obtained by replacing the growth rate ("Lotka'sr") with zero. These facts may be used to derive heuristics for popula...
Mutchler, Jan E; Prakash, Archana; Burr, Jeffrey A
Using data from the 2000 U.S. census, we compare the older Asian population with U.S.-born, non-Hispanic whites with respect to three indicators of disability. Insofar as any Asian "advantage" in health vis-a-vis whites exists among the population aged 65 and over, our evidence suggests that it occurs primarily among the U.S.-born segments of this population. We also investigate how differences in disability levels among Asian immigrant groups are influenced by country of birth and by the combined effects of duration of residence in the United States and life cycle stage at entry. These results highlight the diversity of the older Asian population with respect to the ways in which immigration and origin history are linked to disability outcomes. We conclude that in later life, immigrant status confers few disability advantages among the Asian population in the United States.
Two decades after Aleš Hrdlička’s death the introduction of effective contraceptives broke the evolutionary link between sexuality and procreation. Since then we decide about having children or not, and if we want them we can also decide about their timing. As a consequence the number of children
Full Text Available Studies of the Jameson Land muskox population in Northeast Greenland were conducted 1982-1990 in conjunction with an oil exploration. A population monitoring program consisted of one yearly aerial survey in late winter and a ground survey for population composition in August. The estimated unadjusted minimum average population size was approximately 4000 with a maximum size of 4700 and a minimum of 2800 muskoxen. The monitoring program was adequate to detect an annual change of about 10%. Population composition data proved to be essential. The only indication of a negative impact from oil exploration was detected in the fraction of yearlings. The average calf proportion was roughly 18% and about half of the calves died during their first year. The population density and composition was similar to the Banks Island muskox population in Canada and to the West Greenland population although the latter population had a higher productivity. Seismic operations and/or climatic conditions may have had a negative impact on the calf survival during 1986-1989, when fractions of yearlings were significantly lower than before and after the exploration.
Stambol, L S; Stolen, N M; Avitsland, T
The authors discuss the regional REGARD model, developed by Statistics Norway to analyze the regional implications of macroeconomic development of employment, labor force, and unemployment. "In building the model, empirical analyses of regional producer behavior in manufacturing industries have been performed, and the relation between labor market development and regional migration has been investigated. Apart from providing a short description of the REGARD model, this article demonstrates the functioning of the model, and presents some results of an application." excerpt
Karsten, Richard; Teismann, Holger; Vogels, Angela
In classical demographic theory, reproductive value and stable age distribution are proportional to the sensitivities of the asymptotic population size to changes in mortality and maternity, respectively. In this note we point out that analogous relationships hold if the maternity function is allowed to depend on the population density. The relevant formulae can essentially be obtained by replacing the growth rate ("Lotka's r") with zero. These facts may be used to derive heuristics for population management (pest control). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Kokko, Hanna; López-Sepulcre, Andrés
Calls to understand the links between ecology and evolution have been common for decades. Population dynamics, i.e. the demographic changes in populations, arise from life history decisions of individuals and thus are a product of selection, and selection, on the contrary, can be modified by such dynamical properties of the population as density and stability. It follows that generating predictions and testing them correctly requires considering this ecogenetic feedback loop whenever traits have demographic consequences, mediated via density dependence (or frequency dependence). This is not an easy challenge, and arguably theory has advanced at a greater pace than empirical research. However, theory would benefit from more interaction between related fields, as is evident in the many near-synonymous names that the ecogenetic loop has attracted. We also list encouraging examples where empiricists have shown feasible ways of addressing the question, ranging from advanced data analysis to experiments and comparative analyses of phylogenetic data.
Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Crone, Elizabeth E; Ramula, Satu; Tyre, Andrew J
Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 × 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 × 10 observations). © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.
The economics curriculum today does not emphasize the study of population. This needs to change immediately because we are in the midst of another demographic sea change, slamming on the brakes right after a rapid acceleration during the last half of the twentieth century. Instead of glibly tossing a dependency ratio onto a slide, this article…
Molitoris, Joseph John
’s intergenerational social mobility, and infant and child mortality during Stockholm’s industrialization and fertility transition. The results of this work challenge many existing explanations of the fertility decline and reveal how, despite overall improvements in living standards, elite socioeconomic groups were......This dissertation uses longitudinal micro-data from Stockholm between 1878 and 1926 to study the causes and consequences of the fertility transition and to examine the development of living standards inequality during industrialization. Although both processes have received much interest from...... able to continually leverage their superior resources to maintain significantly lower levels of infant and child mortality....
Full Text Available The purpose of my study is to perform an analysis with the application of regional statistical data, in order to understand the changes within the number of the population at South-Heves in the past period, and to the reveal its special characteristics compared to regional, national trends. The examined area is a classic internal periphery, a region “hit severely by social, economic and environmental crisis” (according to the draft proposal of Heves county’s regional development concept (2014-2020. Considering such regions, besides the examination of the intention to migrate, it is also important to see who will remain in the region. Experiences show that in case of regions with a more disadvantageous situation than average, generally classes of lower social statuses will become dominant, while as it is described by Győri-Nagy (2003, “the escape of competent classes of the population” can be observed. It results in a contra-selected local society which is unable to retain the young and ambitious. The future of the affected regions, settlements is largely determined by the perspectives perceived by young people who live there, and who shall start their families and careers there in the near future. I have conducted an empirical research amongst high-school students living and studying at South-Heves, focusing on issues such as whether the high-school age-group of this classic periphery is considering migration; if so, then what are the reasons, destinations, and as an important question from the aspect of the national strategy as well, how could these young people who are longing to go elsewhere manage their lives here, and how could we make them stay in their homeland (in a narrow sense. By investigating the intention to migrate, we also receive indirect answers for questions such as how could significant regional differences be reduced, and how could we close the gap in case of the most disadvantageous regions.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Marine Mammal Laboratories' California Current Ecosystem Program (AFSC/NOAA) initiated a long-term marking program of northern fur seals (Callorhinus...
Groenen, Martien A. M.; Archibald, Alan L.; Uenishi, Hirohide; Tuggle, Christopher K.; Takeuchi, Yasuhiro; Rothschild, Max F.; Rogel-Gaillard, Claire; Park, Chankyu; Milan, Denis; Megens, Hendrik-Jan; Li, Shengting; Larkin, Denis M.; Kim, Heebal; Frantz, Laurent A. F.; Caccamo, Mario; Ahn, Hyeonju; Aken, Bronwen L.; Anselmo, Anna; Anthon, Christian; Auvil, Loretta; Badaoui, Bouabid; Beattie, Craig W.; Bendixen, Christian; Berman, Daniel; Blecha, Frank; Blomberg, Jonas; Bolund, Lars; Bosse, Mirte; Botti, Sara; Bujie, Zhan; Bystrom, Megan; Capitanu, Boris; Silva, Denise Carvalho; Chardon, Patrick; Chen, Celine; Cheng, Ryan; Choi, Sang-Haeng; Chow, William; Clark, Richard C.; Clee, Christopher; Crooijmans, Richard P. M. A.; Dawson, Harry D.; Dehais, Patrice; De Sapio, Fioravante; Dibbits, Bert; Drou, Nizar; Du, Zhi-Qiang; Eversole, Kellye; Fadista, João; Fairley, Susan; Faraut, Thomas; Faulkner, Geoffrey J.; Fowler, Katie E.; Fredholm, Merete; Fritz, Eric; Gilbert, James G. R.; Giuffra, Elisabetta; Gorodkin, Jan; Griffin, Darren K.; Harrow, Jennifer L.; Hayward, Alexander; Howe, Kerstin; Hu, Zhi-Liang; Humphray, Sean J.; Hunt, Toby; Hornshøj, Henrik; Jeon, Jin-Tae; Jern, Patric; Jones, Matthew; Jurka, Jerzy; Kanamori, Hiroyuki; Kapetanovic, Ronan; Kim, Jaebum; Kim, Jae-Hwan; Kim, Kyu-Won; Kim, Tae-Hun; Larson, Greger; Lee, Kyooyeol; Lee, Kyung-Tai; Leggett, Richard; Lewin, Harris A.; Li, Yingrui; Liu, Wansheng; Loveland, Jane E.; Lu, Yao; Lunney, Joan K.; Ma, Jian; Madsen, Ole; Mann, Katherine; Matthews, Lucy; McLaren, Stuart; Morozumi, Takeya; Murtaugh, Michael P.; Narayan, Jitendra; Nguyen, Dinh Truong; Ni, Peixiang; Oh, Song-Jung; Onteru, Suneel; Panitz, Frank; Park, Eung-Woo; Park, Hong-Seog; Pascal, Geraldine; Paudel, Yogesh; Perez-Enciso, Miguel; Ramirez-Gonzalez, Ricardo; Reecy, James M.; Zas, Sandra Rodriguez; Rohrer, Gary A.; Rund, Lauretta; Sang, Yongming; Schachtschneider, Kyle; Schraiber, Joshua G.; Schwartz, John; Scobie, Linda; Scott, Carol; Searle, Stephen; Servin, Bertrand; Southey, Bruce R.; Sperber, Goran; Stadler, Peter; Sweedler, Jonathan V.; Tafer, Hakim; Thomsen, Bo; Wali, Rashmi; Wang, Jian; Wang, Jun; White, Simon; Xu, Xun; Yerle, Martine; Zhang, Guojie; Zhang, Jianguo; Zhang, Jie; Zhao, Shuhong; Rogers, Jane; Churcher, Carol; Schook, Lawrence B.
For 10,000 years pigs and humans have shared a close and complex relationship. From domestication to modern breeding practices, humans have shaped the genomes of domestic pigs. Here we present the assembly and analysis of the genome sequence of a female domestic Duroc pig (Sus scrofa) and a comparison with the genomes of wild and domestic pigs from Europe and Asia. Wild pigs emerged in South East Asia and subsequently spread across Eurasia. Our results reveal a deep phylogenetic split between European and Asian wild boars ~1 million years ago, and a selective sweep analysis indicates selection on genes involved in RNA processing and regulation. Genes associated with immune response and olfaction exhibit fast evolution. Pigs have the largest repertoire of functional olfactory receptor genes, reflecting the importance of smell in this scavenging animal. The pig genome sequence provides an important resource for further improvements of this important livestock species, and our identification of many putative disease-causing variants extends the potential of the pig as a biomedical model. PMID:23151582
Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The growth of cities has attracted considerable scholarly attention during the last decade as it is becoming clear that powerful agglomeration forces are reinforcing the role of cities as the engines of economic growth. Close to 4 billion people live in cities, about 55 per cent of the world's population. While population growth rates are declining and the world's population is likely to level off from the middle of the 21st century, probably ending up around 10 billion, further urbanization is expected to continue. Another 3 billion people will become urban citizens this century. At the same time no corner of the world will be sheltered from sweeping demographic changes due to population ageing and increasing migration. Such changes will be amplified in cities. In this paper we combine UN population projections and migration data with our own assumptions to derive projections of age composition and birthplace composition of urban populations by continent. We also briefly address the consequences of these demographic trends for future urban economic vitality. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of demographic changes on urban creativity and innovation. We conclude that, with the right policies in place, such demographic changes enhance rather than impede the future prosperity of the urban world. KEYWORDS: World population projections, urbanization, ageing, migration, ethnic diversity
Haridevan, G.; Jyothibabu, R.; Arunpandi, N.; Jagadeesan, L.; Biju, A.
, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20 and 22 salinity). Triplicates were maintained for each treatment. The desired salinity in the experiment vials was prepared by dilution of GF/C filtered and autoclaved sea water with the desired volume of distilled water... production -0.943 p<0.001 23 Table 3 Tukeys HSD Pair wise comparison for age specific fecundity (mx) in different salinity treatments. Bold values indicates at significance level at p < 0.05. Salinity F. water 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 F. water 1 2 0.968 1...
Brent C. Palmer; L. Armstrong
Results are presented of a 12-year monitoring program on the Coral Pink Sand Dunes and Sand Hills populations of the threatened Welsh's milkweed, Asclepias welshii N & P Holmgren. The species is an early sera1 member of the dune flora, colonizing blowouts and advancing with shifting dunes. When an area stabilizes and other vegetation encroaches, A. welshii is...
García, Nestor; Zuidema, P.A.; Galeano, G.; Bernal, R.
The spear leaves of the palms Astrocaryum chambira and A. standleyanum have been traditionally used by Colombian indigenous communities as a source of fiber for handicraft production. Traditional management practices, including destructive harvest, have reduced population sizes of both species. We
Knooihuizen, Remco; Langer, Nils; Davies, Steffen; Vandenbussche, Wim
This chapter combines historical demographic and linguistic research to come to an understanding of language shift in seventeenth-century Northern France. The article details the Francophone immigration to the town of Dunkirk around and after its annexation to France in 1662, focusing in particular
Full Text Available Small and peripheral populations are typically vulnerable to local extinction processes but important for the metapopulation dynamics of species. The Slender-billed gull (Chroicocephalus genei is a long-lived species breeding in unstable ephemeral coastal habitats. Their Western Mediterranean populations are relatively small and represent the edge of their global geographical distribution. At a local scale, using long-term data (14 years on annual breeding success and capture-resights of marked individuals, we estimated and compared the vital rates and evaluated the connectivity of two Spanish populations (Ebro Delta and Doñana varying in their local environmental conditions. At a metapopulation scale, we analyzed 22 years of data on breeding numbers to predict their future prospects by means of population demographic models. Local survival and breeding success of gulls from the Ebro Delta was lower than those from Doñana, which is likely the result of higher permanent emigration and/or winter mortality in the former. Gulls from the Ebro Delta wintered mostly in Mediterranean areas whereas those from Doñana did so in Atlantic coasts, where food availability is higher. Whereas adult local survival was constant, juvenile local survival showed temporal parallel variations between colonies, probably related to natal dispersal to other breeding colonies. Our results suggested that dispersal was higher at the Ebro Delta and gulls emigrating from their natal colonies settled preferentially in close patches. We found large fluctuations in breeding numbers among local populations probably related to the fact that the Slender-billed gull is a species adapted to unstable and unpredictable habitats with high abilities to disperse between suitable patches depending on environmental stochastic conditions during breeding.
Frye, Margaret; Bachan, Lauren
This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response-such as 'don't know' or 'it's up to God'-have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women's 'calculus of conscious choice'. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country's fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women's likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.
Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.
Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.
Dubey, Sylvain; Sinsch, Ulrich; Dehling, Maximilian J; Chevalley, Maya; Shine, Richard
BACKGROUND: Information on the age structure within populations of an endangered species can facilitate effective management. The Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) is a viviparous scincid lizard that is restricted to < 40 isolated montane swamps in south-eastern Australia. We used skeletochronology of phalanges (corroborated by mark-recapture data) to estimate ages of 222 individuals from 13 populations. RESULTS: These lizards grow rapidly, from neonatal size (30 mm snou...
The history of maize has been characterized by major demographic events including changes in population size associated with domestication and subsequent range expansion as well as gene flow with wild relatives. This complex demographic history and its interplay with selection have shaped diversity ...
Lapierre, Marguerite; Blin, Camille; Lambert, Amaury; Achaz, Guillaume; Rocha, Eduardo P C
Recent studies have linked demographic changes and epidemiological patterns in bacterial populations using coalescent-based approaches. We identified 26 studies using skyline plots and found that 21 inferred overall population expansion. This surprising result led us to analyze the impact of natural selection, recombination (gene conversion), and sampling biases on demographic inference using skyline plots and site frequency spectra (SFS). Forward simulations based on biologically relevant parameters from Escherichia coli populations showed that theoretical arguments on the detrimental impact of recombination and especially natural selection on the reconstructed genealogies cannot be ignored in practice. In fact, both processes systematically lead to spurious interpretations of population expansion in skyline plots (and in SFS for selection). Weak purifying selection, and especially positive selection, had important effects on skyline plots, showing patterns akin to those of population expansions. State-of-the-art techniques to remove recombination further amplified these biases. We simulated three common sampling biases in microbiological research: uniform, clustered, and mixed sampling. Alone, or together with recombination and selection, they further mislead demographic inferences producing almost any possible skyline shape or SFS. Interestingly, sampling sub-populations also affected skyline plots and SFS, because the coalescent rates of populations and their sub-populations had different distributions. This study suggests that extreme caution is needed to infer demographic changes solely based on reconstructed genealogies. We suggest that the development of novel sampling strategies and the joint analyzes of diverse population genetic methods are strictly necessary to estimate demographic changes in populations where selection, recombination, and biased sampling are present. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.
Littlefield, D C
The author examines the reasons why the black population in North America during the colonial period managed to reproduce itself, in contrast to the black populations of the West Indies and Latin America, which did not. The answers are sought in the different rationales of the various plantation systems; in North America, the system resulted in better treatment, more equal numbers of men and women, and more importation of African women.
Full Text Available Background: In 1987, the U.S. unintended pregnancy rate was 59 per 1,000 women ages 15-44; the rate fell to 54 in 2008. Over this period, American women experienced dramatic demographic shifts, including an aging population that was better educated and more racially and ethnically diverse. Objective: This study aims to explain trends in unintended pregnancy and understand what factors contributed most strongly to changes in rates over time, focusing on population composition and group-specific changes. Methods: We used the 1988 and 2006-10 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth and employed a decomposition approach, looking jointly at age, relationship status and educational attainment. Results: When we decomposed by the demographic factors together, we found that changes in population composition contributed to an increase in the overall rate, but this was more than offset by group-specific rate declines, which had an impact nearly twice as great in the downward direction. Increases in the share of the population that was cohabiting and the share that was Hispanic were offset by declines in rates among married women. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that a combination of compositional shifts and changes in group-specific rates drove unintended pregnancy, sometimes acting as counterbalancing forces, other times operating in tandem. Contribution: This paper shows the importance of both changes in population composition and changes in group-specific behaviors to the changing unintended pregnancy rate in the United States.
Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K
Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we should expect to observe extinction rates higher than those predicted by simple species-area models. Here, we show that extinction rates for 41 species of large mammals in six nature reserves in West Africa are 14-307 times higher than those predicted by models based on reserve size alone. Human population and reserve size accounted for 98% of the observed variation in extinction rates between reserves. Extinction occurred at higher rates than predicted by species-area models for carnivores, primates and ungulates, and at the highest rates overall near reserve borders. Our results indicate that, where the harvest of wildlife is common, conservation plans should focus on increasing the size of reserves and reducing the rate of hunting.
Brashares, J S; Arcese, P; Sam, M K
Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we...
Hemrová, Lucie; Bullock, J. M.; Hooftman, D. A. P.; White, S. M.; Münzbergová, Zuzana
Roč. 123, č. 10 (2017), s. 1493-1500 ISSN 0030-1299 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.30.0048 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : landscape modelling * local oppulation dynamics * species traits Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 4.030, year: 2016
Chevolot, M.; Wolfs, P.H.J.; Palsson, J.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.; Stam, W.T.; Olsen, J.L.
Population genetic structure of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) was surveyed in >300 individuals sampled from Newfoundland, Iceland, Norway, the Kattegat and the central North Sea. A 290-bp fragment of the mt cytochrome-b gene was first screened by SSCP. Sequences of SSCP haplotypes revealed
Chevolot, Malia; Wolfs, Peter H. J.; Palsson, Jonbjorn; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D.; Stam, Wytze T.; Olsen, Jeanine L.; Palson, J.
Population genetic structure of the thorny skate (Amblyraja radiata) was surveyed in > 300 individuals sampled from Newfoundland, Iceland, Norway, the Kattegat and the central North Sea. A 290-bp fragment of the mt cytochrome-b gene was first screened by SSCP. Sequences of SSCP haplotypes revealed
Lutz, Wolfgang; Cuaresma, Jesús Crespo; Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal
Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to an earlier study on the effects of improving educational attainment on economic growth, the greater age detail of this new dataset resolves earlier ambiguities about the effect of improving education as assessed using a global set of national time series. The results show consistently strong effects of improving overall levels of educational attainment, of a narrowing gender gap in education, and of fertility declines and the subsequent changes in age structure on improvements in the democracy indicator. This global relationship is then applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the past two decades Iran has experienced the world's most rapid fertility decline associated with massive increases in female education. The results show that based on the experience of 120 countries since 1970, Iran has a high chance of significant movement toward more democracy over the following two decades.
R. P. Cincotta; Daniel W. Uresk; R. M. Hansen
A rodenticide, zinc phosphide, was applied to remove black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) from 6 haofa prairie dog colony in southwestern South Dakota. Another adjacent 6 ha was left untreated. The removal experiment was repeated two consecutive years. Contingency table analysis showed that the resultant population was not homogeneous;...
Rafajlović, Marina; Klassmann, Alexander; Eriksson, Anders; Wiehe, Thomas H E; Mehlig, Bernhard
Tests of the neutral evolution hypothesis are usually built on the standard model which assumes that mutations are neutral and the population size remains constant over time. However, it is unclear how such tests are affected if the last assumption
Janovský, Zdeněk; Herben, Tomáš; Klimešová, Jitka
Roč. 52, 3-4 (2017), s. 433-442 ISSN 1211-9520 R&D Projects: GA ČR GB14-36079G; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-19245S Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Population matrices * Clo-Pla * Compadre Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour OBOR OECD: Ecology Impact factor: 1.017, year: 2016
Salguero-Gómez, R.; Jones, O.R.; Archer, C.R.; Buckley, Y.M.; Che-Castaldo, J.; Caswell, H.; Hodgson, D.; Scheuerlein, A.; Conde, D.A.; Brinks, E.; de Buhr, H.; Farack, C.; Gottschalk, F.; Hartmann, A.; Henning, A.; Hoppe, G.; Römer, G.; Runge, J.; Ruoff, T.; Wille, J.; Zeh, S.; Davison, R.; Vieregg, D.; Baudisch, A.; Altwegg, R.; Colchero, F.; Dong, M.; de Kroon, H.; Lebreton, J.D.; Metcalf, C.J.E.; Neele, M.M.; Parker, I.M.; Takada, T.; Valverde, T.; Vélez-Espino, L.A.; Wardle, G.M.; Franco, M.; Vaupel, J.W.
Schedules of survival, growth and reproduction are key life-history traits. Data on how these traits vary among species and populations are fundamental to our understanding of the ecological conditions that have shaped plant evolution. Because these demographic schedules determine population growth
Rooks, V.J.; Lebowitz, R.L. [Children' s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Dept. of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)
Background. The increase in the use of prenatal ultrasound has revolutionized the detection of hydronephrosis and has had an unanticipated consequence. Objective. To describe the new demographics of symptomatic ureteropelvic junction (UPJ) obstruction and the characteristic imaging findings, when the obstruction is extrinsic, from a crossing renal vessel. Materials and methods. From a uroradiology database (1994 through 1999) we identified children with surgically corrected UPJ obstruction from intrinsic and extrinsic causes. Results. One hundred children had symptomatic UPJ obstruction treated by surgery. In 51 (49 %), obstruction was due to a crossing vessel. One hundred and one had UPJ obstruction detected by prenatal sonography. Only 11 (11 %) were due to a vessel. Two clinical and imaging findings were strongly suggestive of obstruction from a vessel: (1) in 5 of the 100 children the symptoms (pain, nausea, and vomiting) were intermittent. Only when symptoms were present were there hydronephrosis and obstruction; (2) in 51 of the 100 children a short segment of ureter, just below the UPJ, was filled with contrast or urine (on renal sonography, intravenous urography, or retrograde/antegrade ureterography). Conclusions. Extrinsic UPJ obstruction caused by a vessel is an uncommon cause of obstruction when all patients are considered. However, in symptomatic older patients whose hydronephrosis was not first identified on prenatal sonography, a vessel was the cause of obstruction in one-half. (orig.)
Full Text Available The practice of long-term immigration detention is a relatively recent aspect of Australian Government policy. There has been much debate about the wisdom of such policy, raising concerns regarding the health of detainees, the dereliction of human rights, and the legal robustness of such practice. Despite considerable interest, little detail is available describing who is being held and the reasons for their long-term detention. This paper addresses this noticeable gap through a systematic analysis of the Commonwealth Ombudsman’s Immigration Reports over the period 2005 through 2009. From such reporting it has been possible to produce a demographic profile of people held in Australian detention and to develop a taxonomy of the reasons contributing to the ongoing containment.
The author analyzes demographic trends affecting children in the Czech Republic in the 1980s. Aspects considered include parental age, employment status of mothers, divorce and remarriage, marriage patterns and living arrangements of young adults, and births outside marriage. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Bing Xu; Yude Pan; Alain F. Plante; Arthur Johnson; Jason Cole; Richard Birdsey
Quantifying forest biomass carbon (C) stock change is important for understanding forest dynamics and their feedbacks with climate change. Forests in the northeastern U.S. have been a net carbon sink in recent decades, but C accumulation in some northern hardwood forests has been halted due to the impact of emerging stresses such as invasive pests, land use change and...
Brown, Leone M; Crone, Elizabeth E
Determining the minimum area required to sustain populations has a long history in theoretical and conservation biology. Correlative approaches are often used to estimate minimum area requirements (MARs) based on relationships between area and the population size required for persistence or between species' traits and distribution patterns across landscapes. Mechanistic approaches to estimating MAR facilitate prediction across space and time but are few. We used a mechanistic MAR model to determine the critical minimum patch size (CMP) for the Baltimore checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas phaeton), a locally abundant species in decline along its southern range, and sister to several federally listed species. Our CMP is based on principles of diffusion, where individuals in smaller patches encounter edges and leave with higher probability than those in larger patches, potentially before reproducing. We estimated a CMP for the Baltimore checkerspot of 0.7-1.5 ha, in accordance with trait-based MAR estimates. The diffusion rate on which we based this CMP was broadly similar when estimated at the landscape scale (comparing flight path vs. capture-mark-recapture data), and the estimated population growth rate was consistent with observed site trends. Our mechanistic approach to estimating MAR is appropriate for species whose movement follows a correlated random walk and may be useful where landscape-scale distributions are difficult to assess, but demographic and movement data are obtainable from a single site or the literature. Just as simple estimates of lambda are often used to assess population viability, the principles of diffusion and CMP could provide a starting place for estimating MAR for conservation. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.
Over the last four decades there have been major advances in our understanding of the biology, ecology and physiology of seagrasses and their interaction with the environment. Despite these advances, there has been relatively little advancement in our understanding of the belowg...
Mann, Katja; Davenport, Margaret
This paper studies the effect of population aging on portfolio choice, asset prices and international asset trades. In a multi-period OLG model, we analyze how an increase in longevity or a decrease in fertility in a country affects the demand for safe and risky assets. In a closed economy, given a fixed supply, the riskfree rate falls and the risk premium rises, because retirees prefer to hold a larger share of safe assets in their portfolio than working-age households. In a financially inte...
The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.
Marcelo C Romano
Full Text Available Bat colonies were sampled in the city of Rosario to increase the understanding of bat ecology in urban areas of the southern cone of South America. Seven species were recorded, of which three are new records for Rosario. One representative colony was chosen for intensive ecological study. Approximately 64 000 Tadarida brasiliensis formed a maternity colony in the attic of an old building. Most of the bats were pregnant or lactating females and their young.. Adults arrive in the colony in mid-September and leave in February, no bats were present at this site from the beginning of March to mid-September. Births occur between mid-November and mid-December. Pups roosted in compact clusters in the nursery areas, spatially segregated from adults. Densities of these aggregations were 643 + 76 bats/m2 (p Con el objetivo de incrementar el conocimiento de la ecología de los murciélagos en áreas urbanas, se muestrearon colonias en la ciudad de Rosario. Fueron registradas siete especies, de las cuales tres son nuevos registros. Se seleccionó una colonia que se consideró más representativa, para realizar un intensivo estudio ecológico. Se realizaron conteos poblacionales, que arrojaron aproximadamente 64 000 Tadarida brasiliensis formando una colonia maternal en el ático de un antigüo edificio. Se hicieron registros de comportamiento (fechas de arribo y partida, patrones diarios de actividad, pariciones, etc.. Los adultos arrivan al refugio a mediados de septiembre y lo abandonan en febrero. Las pariciones ocurren entre mediados de noviembre y mediados de diciembre. Las crías se ubicaron en grupos compactos en áreas separadas de los adultos, siendo su densidad de 643 + 76 /m2 (p < 0.20. y la de los adultos de 161 + 21 /m2 (p < 0.20. 182 animales capturados fueron identificados, sexados y pesados. Los registros incluyeron patrones diarios de actividad.. Se detectó predación por "lechuza de campanario" (Tyto alba y gatos domésticos. La búsqueda de virus rábico resultó negativa. Se estimó el control ejercido sobre poblaciones de insectos que, para esta colonia puede ser de 209 a 385 kg por noche entre septiembre y febrero, demostrando el importante rol que desempeñan en el ecosistema urbano.
Choat, John Howard; Knudsen, Steen Wilhelm; Clements, Kendall
. In this interval parrotfishes colonized the world's tropical reefs and today represent a numerically dominant assemblage of grazing fishes. Colonization occurred differentially resulting in distinctive taxonomic and functional assemblages in the tropical Atlantic vs the Indo-Pacific and in clearly partitioned...... that members of the Atlantic sparisomatinines manifest faster growth rates and generally shorter life spans than the scarinines of the Indo-Pacific, suggesting that for this group the demographic clocks are running faster in the Atlantic. Resolution of this issue requires taking phylogenetic influences, ocean...
Egger, Bernd; Roesti, Marius; Böhne, Astrid; Roth, Olivia; Salzburger, Walter
Disentangling the processes and mechanisms underlying adaptive diversification is facilitated by the comparative study of replicate population pairs that have diverged along a similar environmental gradient. Such a setting is realized in a cichlid fish from southern Lake Tanganyika, Astatotilapia burtoni, which occurs within the lake proper as well as in various affluent rivers. Previously, we demonstrated that independent lake and stream populations show similar adaptations to the two habitat regimes. However, little is known about the evolutionary and demographic history of the A. burtoni populations in question and the patterns of genome divergence among them. Here, we apply restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) to examine the evolutionary history, the population structure and genomic differentiation of lake and stream populations in A. burtoni. A phylogenetic reconstruction based on genome-wide molecular data largely resolved the evolutionary relationships among populations, allowing us to re-evaluate the independence of replicate lake-stream population clusters. Further, we detected a strong pattern of isolation by distance, with baseline genomic divergence increasing with geographic distance and decreasing with the level of gene flow between lake and stream populations. Genome divergence patterns were heterogeneous and inconsistent among lake-stream population clusters, which is explained by differences in divergence times, levels of gene flow and local selection regimes. In line with the latter, we only detected consistent outlier loci when the most divergent lake-stream population pair was excluded. Several of the thus identified candidate genes have inferred functions in immune and neuronal systems and show differences in gene expression between lake and stream populations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
The hunting of the black iguana (Ctenosaura pectinata) in some regions of Mexico constitutes an acute problem because mature, gravid females arc killed and eaten just before they lay their eggs. This practice thus impacts both the survival of adults and the otherwise imminent recruitment of new individuals to the population. The objective of this project was to compare the demographic behaviour and the genetic variability of two population of the black iguana, one protected and...
Full Text Available In recent decades, a health-risk transition with changes in diet and lifestyle in low and middle-income countries (LMICs led to an emergence of chronic diseases. These trends in Southeast Asian LMICs are not well studied. Here, we report on transitional dietary patterns and their socio-demographic predictors in Thai adults. Dietary data in 2015 were from a random sub-sample (N = 1075 of 42,785 Thai Cohort Study (TCS members who completed all three TCS surveys (2005, 2009, 2013. Principle Component Analysis identified dietary patterns and multivariable linear regression assessed associations (Beta estimates (ß and confidence intervals (CIs between socio-demographic factors and dietary intake pattern scores. Four dietary patterns emerged: Healthy Transitional, Fatty Western, Highly Processed, and Traditional. In women, higher income (≥30,001 Baht/month vs. ≤10,000 and managerial work (vs. office assistant was associated with lower scores for Traditional (ß = −0.67, 95% CI −1.15, −0.19 and Fatty Western diets (ß = −0.60, 95% CI −1.14, −0.05, respectively. University education associated with lower Highly Processed (ß = −0.57, 95% CI −0.98, −0.17 and higher Traditional diet scores (ß = 0.42, 95% CI 0.03, 0.81. In men and women, urban residence associated with higher Fatty Western and lower Traditional diets. Local policy makers should promote healthy diets, particularly in urban residents, in men, and in low-SEP adults.
Full Text Available The Chinese crocodile lizard Shinisaurus crocodilurus is a critically endangered species, listed in Appendix II of CITES. Its populations and habitat in China have undergone significant changes in recent years. Understanding the genetic variability and phylogeography of this species is very important for successful conservation. In this study, samples were taken from 11 wild ponds and two captive populations in China. We sequenced mitochondrial CYTB, partial ND6, and partial tRNA-Glu and genotyped 10 microsatellite loci. Our analyses of these data showed low genetic variability, no strong isolation caused by distance, and a lack of a phylogeographic structure in this species. Based on our results, the basal divergence between two clades of S. crocodilurus in China may have been caused by the formation of the Pearl River system. We found a population expansion in one of these clades. Microsatellite analysis indicated the presence of three clusters, separated by significant genetic differences. We found that most individuals in the two captive populations were from the Luokeng (Guangdong and Guangxi wild source populations, respectively.