WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic simulation model

  1. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  2. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  3. FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

    2011-01-01

    Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

  4. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  5. Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinhel, A.C.C.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

  6. Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, José A. F.

    2010-05-01

    The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

  7. System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivona Milić Beran

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

  8. MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

    1977-10-01

    This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

  9. Simulation-economic model of using the geothermal energy of Uzbekistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukhamedov, R.S.; Yuksel, B.

    1990-01-01

    Although a wide range of estimates with different authors have the common view that Soviet Central Asia is a region ranking among the first in the USSR in terms of geothermal resources which are economically feasible for exploitation. Uzbekistan has the highest potential in the region. The areas inside the republic's territory which have particularly high geothermal energy potential are: the Fergana fracture, specifically the Adrusman-Chust anomaly, the Ustyurt plateau, the southern coast of the Aral Sea, and a group of small artesian basins in the heart of the Kyzyl Kum desert. The ultimate goal of this paper is to construct a simulation-economic model with the following characteristics: minimum effect on the ecological situation in the republic; minimum cost; heat and mass transfer in geological and geothermal structures; economic parameters for different technological systems

  10. Managing economic risks through simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, B.J.; Eresman, R.K.

    1994-01-01

    Industrial operations are commonly managed in terms of such factors as raw material requirements, throughput, equipment reliability, and operator productivity. Simulation can be used to transform standard management performance measures into probabilistic measures which define the associated risks. These results provide valuable insight for effective management of economic risks. Case studies are presented using the Monte Carlo simulation method to demonstrate different applications of simulation techniques, various result formats, and their use for optimizing economic returns. In the first case study, design criteria for a large gas distribution system originally developed from worst-case demand estimates were modelled to provide a risk basis for decisions on alternative upgrading options. In the second, a commercial gas storage facility operation was modelled to develop economic marketing strategies balancing supply and demand requirements from multiple clients. 3 refs

  11. Intelligent simulation of aquatic environment economic policy coupled ABM and SD models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huihui; Zhang, Jiarui; Zeng, Weihua

    2018-03-15

    Rapid urbanization and population growth have resulted in serious water shortage and pollution of the aquatic environment, which are important reasons for the complex increase in environmental deterioration in the region. This study examines the environmental consequences and economic impacts of water resource shortages under variant economic policies; however, this requires complex models that jointly consider variant agents and sectors within a systems perspective. Thus, we propose a complex system model that couples multi-agent based models (ABM) and system dynamics (SD) models to simulate the impact of alternative economic policies on water use and pricing. Moreover, this model took the constraint of the local water resources carrying capacity into consideration. Results show that to achieve the 13th Five Year Plan targets in Dianchi, water prices for local residents and industries should rise to 3.23 and 4.99 CNY/m 3 , respectively. The corresponding sewage treatment fees for residents and industries should rise to 1.50 and 2.25 CNY/m 3 , respectively, assuming comprehensive adjustment of industrial structure and policy. At the same time, the local government should exercise fine-scale economic policy combined with emission fees assessed for those exceeding a standard, and collect fines imposed as punishment for enterprises that exceed emission standards. When fines reach 500,000 CNY, the total number of enterprises that exceed emission standards in the basin can be controlled within 1%. Moreover, it is suggested that the volume of water diversion in Dianchi should be appropriately reduced to 3.06×10 8 m 3 . The reduced expense of water diversion should provide funds to use for the construction of recycled water facilities. Then the local rise in the rate of use of recycled water should reach 33%, and 1.4 CNY/m 3 for the price of recycled water could be provided to ensure the sustainable utilization of local water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B

  12. [Economic benefits of overlapping induction: investigation using a computer simulation model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunziker, S; Baumgart, A; Denz, C; Schüpfer, G

    2009-06-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the potential economic benefit of overlapping anaesthesia induction given that all patient diagnosis-related groups (AP DRG) are used as the model for hospital reimbursement. A computer simulation model was used for this purpose. Due to the resource-intensive production process, the operating room (OR) environment is the most expensive part of the supply chain for surgical disciplines. The economical benefit of a parallel production process (additional personnel, adaptation of the process) as compared to a conventional serial layout was assessed. A computer-based simulation method was used with commercially available simulation software. Assumptions for revenues were made by reimbursement based on AP DRG. Based on a system analysis a model for the computer simulation was designed on a step-by-step abstraction process. In the model two operating rooms were used for parallel processing and two operating rooms for a serial production process. Six different types of surgical procedures based on historical case durations were investigated. The contribution margin was calculated based on the increased revenues minus the cost for the additional anaesthesia personnel. Over a period of 5 weeks 41 additional surgical cases were operated under the assumption of duration of surgery of 89+/-4 min (mean+/-SD). The additional contribution margin was CHF 104,588. In the case of longer surgical procedures with 103+/-25 min duration (mean+/-SD), an increase of 36 cases was possible in the same time period and the contribution margin was increased by CHF 384,836. When surgical cases with a mean procedural time of 243+/-55 min were simulated, 15 additional cases were possible. Therefore, the additional contribution margin was CHF 321,278. Although costs increased in this simulation when a serial production process was changed to a parallel system layout due to more personnel, an increase of the contribution margin was possible, especially with

  13. Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostert, P F; Bokkers, E A M; van Middelaar, C E; Hogeveen, H; de Boer, I J M

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in dairy cows. This metabolic disorder occurs in the period around calving and is associated with an increased risk of other diseases. Therefore, SCK affects farm productivity and profitability. Estimating the economic impact of SCK may make farmers more aware of this problem, and can improve their decision-making regarding interventions to reduce SCK. We developed a dynamic stochastic simulation model that enables estimating the economic impact of SCK and related diseases (i.e. mastitis, metritis, displaced abomasum, lameness and clinical ketosis) occurring during the first 30 days after calving. This model, which was applied to a typical Dutch dairy herd, groups cows according to their parity (1 to 5+), and simulates the dynamics of SCK and related diseases, and milk production per cow during one lactation. The economic impact of SCK and related diseases resulted from a reduced milk production, discarded milk, treatment costs, costs from a prolonged calving interval and removal (culling or dying) of cows. The total costs of SCK were €130 per case per year, with a range between €39 and €348 (5 to 95 percentiles). The total costs of SCK per case per year, moreover, increased from €83 per year in parity 1 to €175 in parity 3. Most cows with SCK, however, had SCK only (61%), and costs were €58 per case per year. Total costs of SCK per case per year resulted for 36% from a prolonged calving interval, 24% from reduced milk production, 19% from treatment, 14% from discarded milk and 6% from removal. Results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the disease incidence, removal risk, relations of SCK with other diseases and prices of milk resulted in a high variation of costs of SCK. The costs of SCK, therefore, might differ per farm because of farm-specific circumstances. Improving data collection on the incidence of SCK and related diseases, and on consequences of

  14. Transforming Healthcare Delivery: Integrating Dynamic Simulation Modelling and Big Data in Health Economics and Outcomes Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Deborah A; Burgos-Liz, Lina; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Padula, William V; IJzerman, Maarten J; Wong, Peter K; Higashi, Mitchell K; Engbers, Jordan; Wiebe, Samuel; Crown, William; Osgood, Nathaniel D

    2016-02-01

    In the era of the Information Age and personalized medicine, healthcare delivery systems need to be efficient and patient-centred. The health system must be responsive to individual patient choices and preferences about their care, while considering the system consequences. While dynamic simulation modelling (DSM) and big data share characteristics, they present distinct and complementary value in healthcare. Big data and DSM are synergistic-big data offer support to enhance the application of dynamic models, but DSM also can greatly enhance the value conferred by big data. Big data can inform patient-centred care with its high velocity, volume, and variety (the three Vs) over traditional data analytics; however, big data are not sufficient to extract meaningful insights to inform approaches to improve healthcare delivery. DSM can serve as a natural bridge between the wealth of evidence offered by big data and informed decision making as a means of faster, deeper, more consistent learning from that evidence. We discuss the synergies between big data and DSM, practical considerations and challenges, and how integrating big data and DSM can be useful to decision makers to address complex, systemic health economics and outcomes questions and to transform healthcare delivery.

  15. Analysis of financial support for photovoltaic system installation with the economic simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imamura, E.; Uchiyama, Y.

    1994-01-01

    The authors developed a penetration method of dispersed generation technologies and tried to investigate economic simulation on photovoltaic systems. The model is composed of several analysis modules; a technology application module, a regional meteorology module, cost modules such as capital cost, power generation cost, marginal cost and avoided cost, and a logistic penetration module. The database management system of application forms, meteorological data, energy demand and equipment costs is also developed to support the model. The main purpose of the study is to make clear impacts to the power supply configuration and cost/benefit effects when PV systems are installed into several different sectors in Japan. The ultimate potential of PV system is 235, 103MWp and its market potential is 15,172 MWp in Japan. Market penetration highly depends on cost learning factors of several components of PV system. The installed capacity with 50% subsidy is 5 times larger than that with 67%. In conclusion, it is feasible for government or utilities to financially support the promotion and installation of PV systems as the electricity supply system

  16. Generalized DSS shell for developing simulation and optimization hydro-economic models of complex water resources systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Harou, Julien J.; Andreu, Joaquin

    2013-04-01

    Hydrologic-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure management at the river basin scale. These models simultaneously analyze engineering, hydrology and economic aspects of water resources management. Two new tools have been designed to develop models within this approach: a simulation tool (SIM_GAMS), for models in which water is allocated each month based on supply priorities to competing uses and system operating rules, and an optimization tool (OPT_GAMS), in which water resources are allocated optimally following economic criteria. The characterization of the water resource network system requires a connectivity matrix representing the topology of the elements, generated using HydroPlatform. HydroPlatform, an open-source software platform for network (node-link) models, allows to store, display and export all information needed to characterize the system. Two generic non-linear models have been programmed in GAMS to use the inputs from HydroPlatform in simulation and optimization models. The simulation model allocates water resources on a monthly basis, according to different targets (demands, storage, environmental flows, hydropower production, etc.), priorities and other system operating rules (such as reservoir operating rules). The optimization model's objective function is designed so that the system meets operational targets (ranked according to priorities) each month while following system operating rules. This function is analogous to the one used in the simulation module of the DSS AQUATOOL. Each element of the system has its own contribution to the objective function through unit cost coefficients that preserve the relative priority rank and the system operating rules. The model incorporates groundwater and stream-aquifer interaction (allowing conjunctive use simulation) with a wide range of modeling options, from lumped and analytical approaches to parameter-distributed models (eigenvalue approach). Such

  17. Economic communication model set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

    2017-06-01

    This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

  18. Macromod: Computer Simulation For Introductory Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Thomas

    1977-01-01

    The Macroeconomic model (Macromod) is a computer assisted instruction simulation model designed for introductory economics courses. An evaluation of its utilization at a community college indicates that it yielded a 10 percent to 13 percent greater economic comprehension than lecture classes and that it met with high student approval. (DC)

  19. Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Koen Dillen; Emanuele Ferrari; Pascal Tillie; George Philippidis; Sophie Helaine

    2013-01-01

    The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constra...

  20. Simulation of the system, Energy, Environment, and Economy. Economic model of Baden--Wuerttemberg. Part 1. [In German

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruehle, G.

    1977-04-01

    The energy consumption of industry and private households in a country is closely linked with the amount and development of the GNP and the available income. Instead of extrapolations, a dynamic econometric model was developed based on the Keynesian theory and the data of 1960 to 1974 relating to national accounts. The economic ties between Baden--Wuertemberg and the FRG are to be insured by a subsequent coupling to an FRG model. The first part of this paper basically deals with the fundamentals of the model. An introduction to the problems given by the project is followed by the theoretical economic conception and methodical bases of the model, as well as a discussion of various possible versions of behavior equations. From a set of possible versions of a behavior equation one version, possibly with an alternative for the model simulation in the second part, is selected.

  1. A stochastic model for simulation of the economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus infection in a dairy herd

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, J.T.; Enevoldsen, Carsten; Houe, H.

    1995-01-01

    A dynamic, stochastic model simulating the technical and economic consequences of bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infections for a dairy cattle herd for use on a personal computer was developed. The production and state changes of the herd were simulated by state changes of the individual cows...... and heifers. All discrete events at the cow level were triggered stochastically. Each cow and heifer was characterized by state variables such as stage of lactation, parity, oestrous status, decision for culling, milk production potential, and immune status for BVDV. The model was controlled by 170 decision...... variables describing biologic and management variables including 21 decision variables describing the effect of BVDV infection on the production of the individual animal. Two markedly different scenarios were simulated to demonstrate the behaviour of the developed model and the potentials of the applied...

  2. The Potential Value of Clostridium difficile Vaccine: An Economic Computer Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Bruce Y.; Popovich, Michael J.; Tian, Ye; Bailey, Rachel R.; Ufberg, Paul J.; Wiringa, Ann E.; Muder, Robert R.

    2010-01-01

    Efforts are currently underway to develop a vaccine against Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). We developed two decision analytic Monte Carlo computer simulation models: (1) an Initial Prevention Model depicting the decision whether to administer C. difficile vaccine to patients at-risk for CDI and (2) a Recurrence Prevention Model depicting the decision whether to administer C. difficile vaccine to prevent CDI recurrence. Our results suggest that a C. difficile vaccine could be cost-effective over a wide range of C. difficile risk, vaccine costs, and vaccine efficacies especially when being used post-CDI treatment to prevent recurrent disease. PMID:20541582

  3. A strain-, cow-, and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in dairy cattle herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gussmann, Maya; Kirkeby, Carsten; Græsbøll, Kaare; Farre, Michael; Halasa, Tariq

    2018-07-14

    Intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle lead to economic losses for farmers, both through reduced milk production and disease control measures. We present the first strain-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in a dairy cattle herd. The model can be used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of different prevention and control strategies against IMI. The objective of this study was to describe a transmission framework, which simulates spread of IMI causing pathogens through different transmission modes. These include the traditional contagious and environmental spread and a new opportunistic transmission mode. In addition, the within-herd transmission dynamics of IMI causing pathogens were studied. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the influence of input parameters on model predictions. The results show that the model is able to represent various within-herd levels of IMI prevalence, depending on the simulated pathogens and their parameter settings. The parameters can be adjusted to include different combinations of IMI causing pathogens at different prevalence levels, representing herd-specific situations. The model is most sensitive to varying the transmission rate parameters and the strain-specific recovery rates from IMI. It can be used for investigating both short term operational and long term strategic decisions for the prevention and control of IMI in dairy cattle herds. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  5. Developing a versatile simulation, scheduling and economic model framework for bioenergy production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Matindi

    2019-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling is an effective way of designing, understanding, and analysing bio-refinery supply chain systems. The supply chain is a complex process consisting of many systems interacting with each other. It requires the modelling of the processes in the presence of multiple autonomous entities (i.e. biomass producers, bio-processors and transporters, multiple performance measures and multiple objectives, both local and global, which together constitute very complex interaction effects. In this paper, simulation models for recovering biomass from the field of the biorefinery are developed and validated using some industry data and the minimum biomass recovery cost is established based on different strategies employed for recovering biomass. Energy densification techniques are evaluated for their net present worth and the technologies that offer greater returns for the industry are recommended. In addition, a new scheduling algorithm is also developed to enhance the process flow of the management of resources and the flow of biomass. The primary objective is to investigate different strategies to reach the lowest cost delivery of sugarcane harvest residue to a sugar factory through optimally located bio-refineries. A simulation /optimisation solution approach is also developed to tackle the stochastic variables in the bioenergy production system based on different statistical distributions such as Weibull and Pearson distributions. In this approach, a genetic algorithm is integrated with simulation to improve the initial solution and search the near-optimal solution. A case study is conducted to illustrate the results and to validate the applicability for the real world implementation using ExtendSIM Simulation software using some real data from Australian Mills.

  6. Incorporating Psychological Predictors of Treatment Response into Health Economic Simulation Models: A Case Study in Type 1 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Jen; Pollard, Daniel; Basarir, Hasan; Thokala, Praveen; Cooke, Debbie; Clark, Marie; Bond, Rod; Heller, Simon; Brennan, Alan

    2015-10-01

    . Health economic modeling has paid limited attention to the effects that patients' psychological characteristics have on the effectiveness of treatments. This case study tests 1) the feasibility of incorporating psychological prediction models of treatment response within an economic model of type 1 diabetes, 2) the potential value of providing treatment to a subgroup of patients, and 3) the cost-effectiveness of providing treatment to a subgroup of responders defined using 5 different algorithms. . Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate relationships between patients' psychological characteristics and treatment effectiveness. Two psychological prediction models were integrated with a patient-level simulation model of type 1 diabetes. Expected value of individualized care analysis was undertaken. Five different algorithms were used to provide treatment to a subgroup of predicted responders. A cost-effectiveness analysis compared using the algorithms to providing treatment to all patients. . The psychological prediction models had low predictive power for treatment effectiveness. Expected value of individualized care results suggested that targeting education at responders could be of value. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested, for all 5 algorithms, that providing structured education to a subgroup of predicted responders would not be cost-effective. . The psychological prediction models tested did not have sufficient predictive power to make targeting treatment cost-effective. The psychological prediction models are simple linear models of psychological behavior. Collection of data on additional covariates could potentially increase statistical power. . By collecting data on psychological variables before an intervention, we can construct predictive models of treatment response to interventions. These predictive models can be incorporated into health economic models to investigate more complex service delivery and reimbursement strategies.

  7. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities.

  8. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  9. Modeling and Simulation of the Economics of Mining in the Bitcoin Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marchesi, Michele

    2016-01-01

    In January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto gave rise to the “Bitcoin Blockchain”, creating the first block of the chain hashing on his computer’s central processing unit (CPU). Since then, the hash calculations to mine Bitcoin have been getting more and more complex, and consequently the mining hardware evolved to adapt to this increasing difficulty. Three generations of mining hardware have followed the CPU’s generation. They are GPU’s, FPGA’s and ASIC’s generations. This work presents an agent-based artificial market model of the Bitcoin mining process and of the Bitcoin transactions. The goal of this work is to model the economy of the mining process, starting from GPU’s generation, the first with economic significance. The model reproduces some “stylized facts” found in real-time price series and some core aspects of the mining business. In particular, the computational experiments performed can reproduce the unit root property, the fat tail phenomenon and the volatility clustering of Bitcoin price series. In addition, under proper assumptions, they can reproduce the generation of Bitcoins, the hashing capability, the power consumption, and the mining hardware and electrical energy expenditures of the Bitcoin network. PMID:27768691

  10. Modeling and Simulation of the Economics of Mining in the Bitcoin Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocco, Luisanna; Marchesi, Michele

    2016-01-01

    In January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto gave rise to the "Bitcoin Blockchain", creating the first block of the chain hashing on his computer's central processing unit (CPU). Since then, the hash calculations to mine Bitcoin have been getting more and more complex, and consequently the mining hardware evolved to adapt to this increasing difficulty. Three generations of mining hardware have followed the CPU's generation. They are GPU's, FPGA's and ASIC's generations. This work presents an agent-based artificial market model of the Bitcoin mining process and of the Bitcoin transactions. The goal of this work is to model the economy of the mining process, starting from GPU's generation, the first with economic significance. The model reproduces some "stylized facts" found in real-time price series and some core aspects of the mining business. In particular, the computational experiments performed can reproduce the unit root property, the fat tail phenomenon and the volatility clustering of Bitcoin price series. In addition, under proper assumptions, they can reproduce the generation of Bitcoins, the hashing capability, the power consumption, and the mining hardware and electrical energy expenditures of the Bitcoin network.

  11. Modeling and Simulation of the Economics of Mining in the Bitcoin Market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luisanna Cocco

    Full Text Available In January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto gave rise to the "Bitcoin Blockchain", creating the first block of the chain hashing on his computer's central processing unit (CPU. Since then, the hash calculations to mine Bitcoin have been getting more and more complex, and consequently the mining hardware evolved to adapt to this increasing difficulty. Three generations of mining hardware have followed the CPU's generation. They are GPU's, FPGA's and ASIC's generations. This work presents an agent-based artificial market model of the Bitcoin mining process and of the Bitcoin transactions. The goal of this work is to model the economy of the mining process, starting from GPU's generation, the first with economic significance. The model reproduces some "stylized facts" found in real-time price series and some core aspects of the mining business. In particular, the computational experiments performed can reproduce the unit root property, the fat tail phenomenon and the volatility clustering of Bitcoin price series. In addition, under proper assumptions, they can reproduce the generation of Bitcoins, the hashing capability, the power consumption, and the mining hardware and electrical energy expenditures of the Bitcoin network.

  12. Modeling, simulation, parametric study and economic assessment of reciprocating internal combustion engine integrated with multi-effect desalination unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salimi, Mohsen; Amidpour, Majid

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Integration of small MED unit with gas engine power cycle is studied in this paper. • Modeling, simulation, parametric study and sensitivity analysis were performed. • A thermodynamic model for heat recovery and power generation of the gas engine has been presented. • Annualized Cost of System (ACS) has been employed for economic assessment. • Economic feasibilty dependence of integrated system on natural gas and water prices has been investigated. - Abstract: Due to thermal nature of multi-effect desalination (MED), its integration with a suitable power cycle is highly desirable for waste heat recovery. One of the proper power cycle for proposed integration is internal combustion engine (ICE). The exhaust gas heat of ICE is used to produce motive steam for the required heat for the first effect of MED system. Also, the water jacket heat is utilized in a heat exchanger to pre-heat the seawater. This paper studies a thermodynamic model for a tri-generation system composed of ICE integrated with MED. The ICE thermodynamic model has been used in place of different empirical efficiency relations to estimate performance – load curves reasonably. The entire system performance has been coded in MATLAB, and the results of proposed thermodynamic model for the engine have been verified by manufacturer catalogue. By increasing the engine load from 40% to 100%, the water production of MED unit will increase from 4.38 cubic meters per day to 26.78 cubic meters per day and the tri-generation efficiency from 31% to 56%. Economic analyses of the MED unit integrated with ICE was performed based on Annualized Cost of System method. This integration makes the system more economical. It has been determined that in higher market prices for fresh water (more than 7 US$ per cubic meter), the increase in effects number is more significant to the period of return decrement.

  13. Development of a dynamic model to evaluate economic recovery following a nuclear attack. Volume 1. Description and simulations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.W.; Silverman, W.S.; Weil, H.B.; Willard, S.

    1980-11-01

    A highly-robust, dynamic simulation model of the US economy has been constructed to evaluate the likely economic response after various nuclear attacks or other severe disruptions, under various policies and assumptions. The model consists of a large system of nonlinear, recursive, time-difference equations. The solution-interval of the model is adjustable, with a maximum value of three weeks. The model represents the economy in thirteen sectors. Each sector contains a detailed representation of production, distribution, supply constraints, finance, employment, pricing, and wages. Also included are a full input-output representation of the interconnections among the sectors, and the psychological responses of corporate planners, consumers, and the labor force. The model's equations are formulated to remain consistent and realistic for all values of the variables, including the most extreme conditions. Therefore, the model can realistically simulate any degree or time sequence of nuclear attacks, pre-attack surges, mobilization, or policy shifts. Simulation experiments with the model suggest that the economy is highly vulnerable to nuclear attack, and that recovery requires extensive preparation, including psychological readiness, technology maintenance, special financial policies, and (if possible) maintenance of foreign trade. Civil defense policies must be adaptive (contingent on the nature of the damage) and must strive for balance among sectors, rather than maximum survival. This volume includes two appendices. Appendix A defines the aggregation of the model. Appendix B outlines the range of attack scenarios, pre-attack civil defense policies, and post-attack civil defense policies that can be evaluated with the model, including the model variables applicable to implementing those policies

  14. Assessing economic consequences of foot disorders in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Hogeveen, H.; Stassen, E.N.

    2010-01-01

    Foot disorders are an important health problem in dairy cattle, in terms of economics and animal welfare. The incidence, severity, and duration of foot disorders account for their importance. Prevalence of both subclinical and clinical foot disorders is high. More insight into the economic

  15. The economics of improving medication adherence in osteoporosis: validation and application of a simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick, Amanda R; Schousboe, John T; Losina, Elena; Solomon, Daniel H

    2011-09-01

    Adherence to osteoporosis treatment is low. Although new therapies and behavioral interventions may improve medication adherence, questions are likely to arise regarding their cost-effectiveness. Our objectives were to develop and validate a model to simulate the clinical outcomes and costs arising from various osteoporosis medication adherence patterns among women initiating bisphosphonate treatment and to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical intervention to improve medication adherence. We constructed a computer simulation using estimates of fracture rates, bisphosphonate treatment effects, costs, and utilities for health states drawn from the published literature. Probabilities of transitioning on and off treatment were estimated from administrative claims data. Patients were women initiating bisphosphonate therapy from the general community. We evaluated a hypothetical behavioral intervention to improve medication adherence. Changes in 10-yr fracture rates and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were evaluated. A hypothetical intervention with a one-time cost of $250 and reducing bisphosphonate discontinuation by 30% had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $29,571 per quality-adjusted life year in 65-yr-old women initiating bisphosphonates. Although the ICER depended on patient age, intervention effectiveness, and intervention cost, the ICERs were less than $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year for the majority of intervention cost and effectiveness scenarios evaluated. Results were sensitive to bisphosphonate cost and effectiveness and assumptions about the rate at which intervention and treatment effects decline over time. Our results suggests that behavioral interventions to improve osteoporosis medication adherence will likely have favorable ICERs if their efficacy can be sustained.

  16. Simulation of the system, Energy, Environment, and Economy. Economic model of Baden--Wuerttemberg. Part 2. [In German

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruehle, G

    1977-04-01

    The energy consumption of industry and private households in a country is closely linked with the amount and development of the GNP and income available. Instead of extrapolations, a dynamic econometric model was developed based on the Keynesian theory and the data of 1960 to 1974 relating to national accounts. The economic ties between Baden--Wuerttemberg and the FRG are to be ensured by a subsequent coupling of the FRG-model. In the second part of this paper the equations selected in the first part are checked due to revised basic data, and a complete set of equations is combined as a model. The behavior of this model is tested by comparing simulation results with basic data and by means of a regulative theoretical stability analysis. While the simulation data repeat the course of the GNP and the available income sufficiently precise, yields, private capital investments and the unemployment ratio are superimposed with larger variations. The stability analysis proved a model behavior to be oscillatory stable.

  17. A model for developing and evaluating games and simulations in business and economic education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dallas Brozik

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of games and simulations in the classroom has prompted research concerning their pervasiveness and pedagogical benefits, but little research has focused on how teachers can develop their own games and simulations. This paper presents an outline of how to develop games and simulation for classroom use. This framework can lead to further research and its findings can help assess whether games and simulations contribute to decision-making skills and to what extent they contribute to numerous cognitive benefits in learners.

  18. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert Arthur [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Deason, Wesley Ray [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Boardman, Richard Doin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Garcia, Humberto E. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    An effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year 2015 (FY15). The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status on its progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, starting from a simulation strategy, a rigorous mathematical formulation has been achieved in which the economic optimization of a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System is presented as a constrained robust (under uncertainty) optimization problem. Some possible algorithms for the solution of the optimization problem are presented. A variation of the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation algorithm has been implemented in RAVEN and preliminary tests have been performed. The development of the software infrastructure to support the simulation of the whole NHES has also moved forward. The coupling between RAVEN and an implementation of the Modelica language (OpenModelica) has been implemented, migrated under several operating systems and tested using an adapted model of a desalination plant. In particular, this exercise was focused on testing the coupling of the different code systems; testing parallel, computationally expensive simulations on the INL cluster; and providing a proof of concept for the possibility of using surrogate models to represent the different NHES subsystems. Another important step was the porting of the RAVEN code under the Windows™ operating system. This accomplishment makes RAVEN compatible with the development environment that is being used for dynamic simulation of NHES components. A very simplified model of a NHES on the electric market has been built in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces even for stochastic constraints. This

  19. Ecological economic simulation model of mountain fynbos ecosystems - dynamics, valuation and management

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Higgins, SI

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available Mountain fynbos ecosystems in South Africa are threatened by alien plant invasions and by a lack of funding for effective management of these invasions. This paper develops an ecological-economic argument for the effective management of plant...

  20. Estimating the economic impact of subclinical ketosis in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mostert, P.F.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Middelaar, van C.E.; Hogeveen, H.; Boer, de I.J.M.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the economic impact of subclinical ketosis (SCK) in dairy cows. This metabolic disorder occurs in the period around calving and is associated with an increased risk of other diseases. Therefore, SCK affects farm productivity and profitability.

  1. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epiney, Aaron Simon; Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

    2016-01-01

    Continued effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2016. The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status of their progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, a synthetic time history generator has been developed in RAVEN, which consists of Fourier series and autoregressive moving average model. The former is used to capture the seasonal trend in historical data, while the latter is to characterize the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). As demonstration, both synthetic wind speed and grid demand are generated, showing matching statistics with database. In order to build a design and operations optimizer in RAVEN, a new type of sampler has been developed with highly object-oriented design. In particular, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm is implemented. The optimizer is capable to drive the model to optimize a scalar objective function without constraint in the input space, while the constraints handling is a work in progress and will be implemented to improve the optimization capability. Furthermore, a simplified cash flow model of the performance of an NHES in the electric market has been developed in Python and used as external model in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces. Finally, an example calculation is performed that shows the integration and proper data passing in RAVEN of the synthetic time history generator, the cash flow model and the optimizer. It has been shown that the developed Python models external to RAVEN are able to communicate with RAVEN and each other through the newly developed RAVEN capability called “EnsembleModel”.

  2. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron Simon [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Chen, Jun [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Continued effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2016. The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status of their progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, a synthetic time history generator has been developed in RAVEN, which consists of Fourier series and autoregressive moving average model. The former is used to capture the seasonal trend in historical data, while the latter is to characterize the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). As demonstration, both synthetic wind speed and grid demand are generated, showing matching statistics with database. In order to build a design and operations optimizer in RAVEN, a new type of sampler has been developed with highly object-oriented design. In particular, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm is implemented. The optimizer is capable to drive the model to optimize a scalar objective function without constraint in the input space, while the constraints handling is a work in progress and will be implemented to improve the optimization capability. Furthermore, a simplified cash flow model of the performance of an NHES in the electric market has been developed in Python and used as external model in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces. Finally, an example calculation is performed that shows the integration and proper data passing in RAVEN of the synthetic time history generator, the cash flow model and the optimizer. It has been shown that the developed Python models external to RAVEN are able to communicate with RAVEN and each other through the newly developed RAVEN capability called “EnsembleModel”.

  3. Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes. Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, Christian; Meyer, Bernd

    2009-01-01

    Using the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model, consequences of different possible post-Kyoto regimes on the German and European economy and other major economies in the medium run until 2020 are depicted. The approach is very extensive and detailed in comparison to already existing analyses: this holds for the number of explicitly modelled countries (50 and 2 regions) and 41 economic sectors, input-output tables, the bilateral trade flows, the detailed coverage of behavioural parameters, the coverage of energy balances and CO 2 emissions as well as for the number and precise economic-political design of simulation runs. Global emissions will double until 2030 compared to 1990 levels without the existence of a far-reaching climate regime after 2012. A unilateral commitment of the EU would only be a 'drop in the bucket', which solely strengthens the credibility of the EU in international negotiations. A stabilisation of global emissions in 2020 compared to 2010, which is consistent with the 2 target of the EU can only be achieved, if all developed and at least the large emerging economies participate and if all possible existing market-ready reduction technologies are used. (author)

  4. Transforming Healthcare Delivery: Integrating Dynamic Simulation Modelling and Big Data in Health Economics and Outcomes Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marshall, Deborah A.; Burgos-Liz, Lina; Pasupathy, Kalyan S.; Padula, William V.; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; Wong, Peter K.; Higashi, Mitchell K.; Engbers, Jordan; Wiebe, Samuel; Crown, William; Osgood, Nathaniel D.

    2016-01-01

    In the era of the Information Age and personalized medicine, healthcare delivery systems need to be efficient and patient-centred. The health system must be responsive to individual patient choices and preferences about their care, while considering the system consequences. While dynamic simulation

  5. A strain-, cow-, and herd-speciÞc bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in dairy cattle herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gussmann, Maya Katrin; Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Græsbøll, Kaare

    2018-01-01

    Intramammary infections (IMI) in dairy cattle lead to economic losses for farmers, both through reduced milk production and disease control measures. We present the first strain-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model of intramammary infections in a dairy cattle herd. The model can...... various within-herd levels of IMI prevalence, depending on the simulated pathogens and their parameter settings. The parameters can be adjusted to include different combinations of IMI causing pathogens at different prevalence levels, representing herd-specific situations. The model is most sensitive...

  6. Economic Impacts of the 1997 EU Energy Tax: Simulations with Three EU-Wide Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, H.; Klaassen, G.

    2000-01-01

    In March 1997 the European Commission adopted a proposal that increases existing minimum levels of taxation on mineral oils by around 10 to 25% and introduces excises for other energy products. This paper analyses the macroeconomic impacts of the proposal. It employs three models: HERMES, GEM-E3, and E3ME. All models confirm that the proposal will have positive macroeconomic impacts when the tax revenues are used to reduce social security contributions paid by employers. For the EU as a whole, both GDP and employment are expected to be higher and CO2 emissions are 0.9 to 1.6 percent lower. The positive EU-wide effects can be observed in practically all member states. The sector impacts are modest, with the energy sector expected to face the most negative impacts. Differences between model results are due to the model type (general equilibrium or macro-econometric), the EU countries covered and the way tax exemptions were handled. Crucial assumptions to obtain the 'double dividend' are the modelling of the labour market and the impacts on EU external trade. The sensitivity of the results for the use of tax revenues, tax exemptions and tax rate increases is assessed. 21 refs

  7. RELAP5 two-phase fluid model and numerical scheme for economic LWR system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ransom, V.H.; Wagner, R.J.; Trapp, J.A.

    1981-01-01

    The RELAP5 two-phase fluid model and the associated numerical scheme are summarized. The experience accrued in development of a fast running light water reactor system transient analysis code is reviewed and example of the code application are given

  8. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  9. Health and economic benefits of public financing of epilepsy treatment in India: An agent-based simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Megiddo, Itamar; Colson, Abigail; Chisholm, Dan; Dua, Tarun; Nandi, Arindam; Laxminarayan, Ramanan

    2016-03-01

    An estimated 6-10 million people in India live with active epilepsy, and less than half are treated. We analyze the health and economic benefits of three scenarios of publicly financed national epilepsy programs that provide: (1) first-line antiepilepsy drugs (AEDs), (2) first- and second-line AEDs, and (3) first- and second-line AEDs and surgery. We model the prevalence and distribution of epilepsy in India using IndiaSim, an agent-based, simulation model of the Indian population. Agents in the model are disease-free or in one of three disease states: untreated with seizures, treated with seizures, and treated without seizures. Outcome measures include the proportion of the population that has epilepsy and is untreated, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and cost per DALY averted. Economic benefit measures estimated include out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditure averted and money-metric value of insurance. All three scenarios represent a cost-effective use of resources and would avert 800,000-1 million DALYs per year in India relative to the current scenario. However, especially in poor regions and populations, scenario 1 (which publicly finances only first-line therapy) does not decrease the OOP expenditure or provide financial risk protection if we include care-seeking costs. The OOP expenditure averted increases from scenarios 1 through 3, and the money-metric value of insurance follows a similar trend between scenarios and typically decreases with wealth. In the first 10 years of scenarios 2 and 3, households avert on average over US$80 million per year in medical expenditure. Expanding and publicly financing epilepsy treatment in India averts substantial disease burden. A universal public finance policy that covers only first-line AEDs may not provide significant financial risk protection. Covering costs for both first- and second-line therapy and other medical costs alleviates the financial burden from epilepsy and is cost-effective across wealth

  10. FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Louhichi, K.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Flichman, G.; Blanco, M.; Hengsdijk, H.; Heckelei, T.; Berentsen, P.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2010-01-01

    The disciplinary nature of most existing farm models as well as the issue specific orientation of most of the studies in agricultural systems research are main reasons for the limited use and re-use of bio-economic modelling for the ex-ante integrated assessment of policy decisions. The objective of

  11. Effect of External Economic-Field Cycle and Market Temperature on Stock-Price Hysteresis: Monte Carlo Simulation on the Ising Spin Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punya Jaroenjittichai, Atchara; Laosiritaworn, Yongyut

    2017-09-01

    In this work, the stock-price versus economic-field hysteresis was investigated. The Ising spin Hamiltonian was utilized as the level of ‘disagreement’ in describing investors’ behaviour. The Ising spin directions were referred to an investor’s intention to perform his action on trading his stock. The periodic economic variation was also considered via the external economic-field in the Ising model. The stochastic Monte Carlo simulation was performed on Ising spins, where the steady-state excess demand and supply as well as the stock-price were extracted via the magnetization. From the results, the economic-field parameters and market temperature were found to have significant effect on the dynamic magnetization and stock-price behaviour. Specifically, the hysteresis changes from asymmetric to symmetric loops with increasing market temperature and economic-field strength. However, the hysteresis changes from symmetric to asymmetric loops with increasing the economic-field frequency, when either temperature or economic-field strength is large enough, and returns to symmetric shape at very high frequencies. This suggests competitive effects among field and temperature factors on the hysteresis characteristic, implying multi-dimensional complicated non-trivial relationship among inputs-outputs. As is seen, the results reported (over extensive range) can be used as basis/guideline for further analysis/quantifying how economic-field and market-temperature affect the stock-price distribution on the course of economic cycle.

  12. An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Richard E; Jones, Makoto; Leecaster, Molly; Samore, Matthew H; Ray, William; Huttner, Angela; Huttner, Benedikt; Khader, Karim; Stevens, Vanessa W; Gerding, Dale; Schweizer, Marin L; Rubin, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    A number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile) transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of "bundling" these strategies together. We constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a) aggressive C. difficile testing; (b) empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c) improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d) contact precautions; (e) improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f) improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1) base-case (BASE) values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2) intervention (INT) values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3) optimal (OPT) values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile. INT levels of the "bundled" intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the

  13. Economic analysis and prospective simulation in the low carbon town planing. Application of TRANUS+ model to Grenoble city

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saujot, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    Strategic spatial planning in France is currently given a rising importance for environmental and climate issues. Is this tool really able to reduce urban sprawl and produce an efficient framework for reducing transport emissions? What are the potential contributions of economic analysis and prospective modelling to planning? To answer these questions, we developed a study on the contributions of economic tools to planning into the broader context of political and administrative reforms in France. We then produced a critical analysis of current planning practices and attempted to define the conditions for a better integration of economic analysis into planning processes and methods. For our case study on the Grenoble urban area, we built and applied a series of economic tools able to inform decision-making on local climate policies in the framework of urban planning. In addition to being the first implementation of the integrated transport - land-use model TRANUS in France, this study further links the TRANUS model to an original economic methodology to obtain a tool we call TRANUS+. This tool is able to take into account the systemic nature of cities and then help to define better transport policies, notably by producing marginal abatement cost curves useful at the urban level. To have a more complete view of urban planning and the way in which it can be improved, we investigated several issues from a planning perspective: the choice of modelling tool and the role of cost-benefit analysis, energy poverty in the transport sector and electric vehicle deployment. (author) [fr

  14. Economic impact of clinical mastitis in a dairy herd assessed by stochastic simulation using different methods to model yield losses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagnestam-Nielsen, Christel; Østergaard, Søren

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of the present study was to examine the economic consequences of a reduction in the incidence of clinical mastitis (CM) at herd level under current Swedish farming conditions. A second objective was to ask whether the estimated cost of CM alters depending upon whether the model...... with 150 cows (9000 kg of energy-corrected milk per cow-year). Four herd types, defined by production level and reproductive performance, were modelled to investigate possible interactions between herd type and response to a reduction in the risk of CM. Technical and economic results, given the initial...... incidence of CM (25.6 per 100 cow-years), were studied together with the consequences of reducing the initial risk of CM by 50% and 90% throughout lactation and the consequences of reducing the initial risk by 50% and 90% before peak yield. A conventional way of modelling yield losses - i.e. one employing...

  15. An Economic Analysis of Strategies to Control Clostridium Difficile Transmission and Infection Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E Nelson

    Full Text Available A number of strategies exist to reduce Clostridium difficile (C. difficile transmission. We conducted an economic evaluation of "bundling" these strategies together.We constructed an agent-based computer simulation of nosocomial C. difficile transmission and infection in a hospital setting. This model included the following components: interactions between patients and health care workers; room contamination via C. difficile shedding; C. difficile hand carriage and removal via hand hygiene; patient acquisition of C. difficile via contact with contaminated rooms or health care workers; and patient antimicrobial use. Six interventions were introduced alone and "bundled" together: (a aggressive C. difficile testing; (b empiric isolation and treatment of symptomatic patients; (c improved adherence to hand hygiene and (d contact precautions; (e improved use of soap and water for hand hygiene; and (f improved environmental cleaning. Our analysis compared these interventions using values representing 3 different scenarios: (1 base-case (BASE values that reflect typical hospital practice, (2 intervention (INT values that represent implementation of hospital-wide efforts to reduce C. diff transmission, and (3 optimal (OPT values representing the highest expected results from strong adherence to the interventions. Cost parameters for each intervention were obtained from published literature. We performed our analyses assuming low, normal, and high C. difficile importation prevalence and transmissibility of C. difficile.INT levels of the "bundled" intervention were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year in all importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. OPT levels of intervention were cost-effective for normal and high importation prevalence and transmissibility scenarios. When analyzed separately, hand hygiene compliance, environmental decontamination, and empiric isolation and treatment were the

  16. Modelling and sequential simulation of multi-tubular metallic membrane and techno-economics of a hydrogen production process employing thin-layer membrane reactor

    KAUST Repository

    Shafiee, Alireza

    2016-09-24

    A theoretical model for multi-tubular palladium-based membrane is proposed in this paper and validated against experimental data for two different sized membrane modules that operate at high temperatures. The model is used in a sequential simulation format to describe and analyse pure hydrogen and hydrogen binary mixture separations, and then extended to simulate an industrial scale membrane unit. This model is used as a sub-routine within an ASPEN Plus model to simulate a membrane reactor in a steam reforming hydrogen production plant. A techno-economic analysis is then conducted using the validated model for a plant producing 300 TPD of hydrogen. The plant utilises a thin (2.5 μm) defect-free and selective layer (Pd75Ag25 alloy) membrane reactor. The economic sensitivity analysis results show usefulness in finding the optimum operating condition that achieves minimum hydrogen production cost at break-even point. A hydrogen production cost of 1.98 $/kg is estimated while the cost of the thin-layer selective membrane is found to constitute 29% of total process capital cost. These results indicate the competiveness of this thin-layer membrane process against conventional methods of hydrogen production. © 2016 Hydrogen Energy Publications LLC

  17. Modeling recent economic debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

  18. Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

    2018-05-29

    To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wadim Strielkowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

  20. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  1. An Introduction to Optimal Control Problems in Life Sciences and Economics From Mathematical Models to Numerical Simulation with MATLAB®

    CERN Document Server

    Anita, Sebastian; Capasso, Vincenzo

    2011-01-01

    Combining control theory and modeling, this textbook introduces and builds on methods for simulating and tackling concrete problems in a variety of applied sciences. Emphasizing "learning by doing," the authors focus on examples and applications to real-world problems. An elementary presentation of advanced concepts, proofs to introduce new ideas, and carefully presented MATLAB(R) programs help foster an understanding of the basics, but also lead the way to new, independent research. With minimal prerequisites and exercises in each chapter, this work serves as an excellent textbook a

  2. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  3. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  4. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  5. A Markov computer simulation model of the economics of neuromuscular blockade in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chow John L

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Management of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS in the intensive care unit (ICU is clinically challenging and costly. Neuromuscular blocking agents may facilitate mechanical ventilation and improve oxygenation, but may result in prolonged recovery of neuromuscular function and acute quadriplegic myopathy syndrome (AQMS. The goal of this study was to address a hypothetical question via computer modeling: Would a reduction in intubation time of 6 hours and/or a reduction in the incidence of AQMS from 25% to 21%, provide enough benefit to justify a drug with an additional expenditure of $267 (the difference in acquisition cost between a generic and brand name neuromuscular blocker? Methods The base case was a 55 year-old man in the ICU with ARDS who receives neuromuscular blockade for 3.5 days. A Markov model was designed with hypothetical patients in 1 of 6 mutually exclusive health states: ICU-intubated, ICU-extubated, hospital ward, long-term care, home, or death, over a period of 6 months. The net monetary benefit was computed. Results Our computer simulation modeling predicted the mean cost for ARDS patients receiving standard care for 6 months to be $62,238 (5% – 95% percentiles $42,259 – $83,766, with an overall 6-month mortality of 39%. Assuming a ceiling ratio of $35,000, even if a drug (that cost $267 more hypothetically reduced AQMS from 25% to 21% and decreased intubation time by 6 hours, the net monetary benefit would only equal $137. Conclusion ARDS patients receiving a neuromuscular blocker have a high mortality, and unpredictable outcome, which results in large variability in costs per case. If a patient dies, there is no benefit to any drug that reduces ventilation time or AQMS incidence. A prospective, randomized pharmacoeconomic study of neuromuscular blockers in the ICU to asses AQMS or intubation times is impractical because of the highly variable clinical course of patients with ARDS.

  6. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

    1980-09-01

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  7. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  8. Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, W. F.

    1977-07-29

    The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

  9. Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Kit N

    2010-05-01

    To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

  10. Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    2002-03-01

    As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

  11. Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nobre, AM

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

  12. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  13. Crescimento econômico num modelo micro-macrodinâmico de simulação Economic growth in a micro-macrodynamic simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Luiz Possas

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo discute as propriedades macrodinâmicas da tendência de crescimento a longo prazo e respectivos fatores determinantes, inclusive no nível microeconômico, que o modelo de simulação utilizado permite explorar. O modelo procura integrar a macrodinâmica centrada na demanda efetiva com as características estruturais e setoriais que podem gerar propriedades emergentes, com foco sobre a relação entre as trajetórias geradas e o progresso tecnológico. Os resultados de simulação apresentados indicam o comportamento da tendência de crescimento a longo prazo e seus determinantes. A tendência é em geral irregular e sem padrão predeterminado, obedecendo aos componentes autônomos de demanda agregada - investimento e consumo autônomos, gasto público e saldo das exportações -, como na tradição de modelos de crescimento baseados nas propriedades dinâmicas da demanda efetiva, e não a impulsos ou choques de oferta como nos modelos mainstream. Uma característica importante do modelo proposto é que a maioria desses componentes é parcial ou totalmente endogeneizada. Isso permite que cada um deles seja testado separadamente, ressaltando a influência decisiva do seu peso relativo no PIB para a trajetória de tendência deste.This paper discusses macrodynamic properties concerning of economic growth trend and its determinants, including microeconomic factors that can be explored within the simulation model proposed. The model tries to integrate the effective demand-based macrodynamics with structural and sectoral features that may generate emergent properties, focusing on the link between macroeconomic paths and technological progress. The simulation results presented in the paper give an idea of the trend path behavior generated by the model and its determinants. The main result is an irregular long run growth trend essentially determined by the autonomous components of the aggregate demand - investment, consumption, public

  14. Simulation modeling and arena

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti, Manuel D

    2015-01-01

    Emphasizes a hands-on approach to learning statistical analysis and model building through the use of comprehensive examples, problems sets, and software applications With a unique blend of theory and applications, Simulation Modeling and Arena®, Second Edition integrates coverage of statistical analysis and model building to emphasize the importance of both topics in simulation. Featuring introductory coverage on how simulation works and why it matters, the Second Edition expands coverage on static simulation and the applications of spreadsheets to perform simulation. The new edition als

  15. ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria G. MACOVEI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

  16. The integrated economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syrota, J.; Cirelli, J.F.; Brimont, S.; Lyle, C.; Nossent, G.; Moraleda, P.

    2005-01-01

    The setting up of the European energy market has triggered a radical change of the context within with the energy players operated. The natural markets of the incumbent operators, which were formerly demarcated by national and even regional borders, have extended to at least the scale of the European Union. In addition to their geographical development strategy, gas undertakings are diversifying their portfolios towards both upstream as well as downstream activities of the gas chain, and/or extending their offers to other energies and services. Energy players' strategies are rather complex and sometimes give the impression that of being based on contradictory decisions. Some operators widen their field of operations, whereas others specialize in a limited number of activities. This Round Table provides an opportunity to compare business models as adopted by the major gas undertakings in response to structural changes observed in various countries over recent years

  17. Aviation Safety Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, Scott; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Simulation Model is a software tool that enables users to configure a terrain, a flight path, and an aircraft and simulate the aircraft's flight along the path. The simulation monitors the aircraft's proximity to terrain obstructions, and reports when the aircraft violates accepted minimum distances from an obstruction. This model design facilitates future enhancements to address other flight safety issues, particularly air and runway traffic scenarios. This report shows the user how to build a simulation scenario and run it. It also explains the model's output.

  18. Simulating economic effects of disruptions in the telecommunications infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Barton, Dianne Catherine; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Eidson, Eric D.; Schoenwald, David Alan

    2004-01-01

    CommAspen is a new agent-based model for simulating the interdependent effects of market decisions and disruptions in the telecommunications infrastructure on other critical infrastructures in the U.S. economy such as banking and finance, and electric power. CommAspen extends and modifies the capabilities of Aspen-EE, an agent-based model previously developed by Sandia National Laboratories to analyze the interdependencies between the electric power system and other critical infrastructures. CommAspen has been tested on a series of scenarios in which the communications network has been disrupted, due to congestion and outages. Analysis of the scenario results indicates that communications networks simulated by the model behave as their counterparts do in the real world. Results also show that the model could be used to analyze the economic impact of communications congestion and outages.

  19. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  20. Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Kravtsova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

  1. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  2. Scientific Modeling and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Diaz de la Rubia, Tomás

    2009-01-01

    Showcases the conceptual advantages of modeling which, coupled with the unprecedented computing power through simulations, allow scientists to tackle the formibable problems of our society, such as the search for hydrocarbons, understanding the structure of a virus, or the intersection between simulations and real data in extreme environments

  3. PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

  4. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  5. Modelling and sequential simulation of multi-tubular metallic membrane and techno-economics of a hydrogen production process employing thin-layer membrane reactor

    KAUST Repository

    Shafiee, Alireza; Arab, Mobin; Lai, Zhiping; Liu, Zongwen; Abbas, Ali

    2016-01-01

    reforming hydrogen production plant. A techno-economic analysis is then conducted using the validated model for a plant producing 300 TPD of hydrogen. The plant utilises a thin (2.5 μm) defect-free and selective layer (Pd75Ag25 alloy) membrane reactor

  6. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pronskikh, V. S. [Fermilab

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  7. Automated Simulation Model Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Y.

    2013-01-01

    One of today's challenges in the field of modeling and simulation is to model increasingly larger and more complex systems. Complex models take long to develop and incur high costs. With the advances in data collection technologies and more popular use of computer-aided systems, more data has become

  8. Efficiency of economic development models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Camelia Iacob

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

  9. Toward economic flood loss characterization via hazard simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Cunha, Luciana K.; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Smith, James A.

    2016-08-01

    Among all natural disasters, floods have historically been the primary cause of human and economic losses around the world. Improving flood risk management requires a multi-scale characterization of the hazard and associated losses—the flood loss footprint. But this is typically not available in a precise and timely manner, yet. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel and multidisciplinary approach which relies on a computationally efficient hydrological model that simulates streamflow for scales ranging from small creeks to large rivers. We adopt a normalized index, the flood peak ratio (FPR), to characterize flood magnitude across multiple spatial scales. The simulated FPR is then shown to be a key statistical driver for associated economic flood losses represented by the number of insurance claims. Importantly, because it is based on a simulation procedure that utilizes generally readily available physically-based data, our flood simulation approach has the potential to be broadly utilized, even for ungauged and poorly gauged basins, thus providing the necessary information for public and private sector actors to effectively reduce flood losses and save lives.

  10. The Use of Computer Simulation Gaming in Teaching Broadcast Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancuso, Louis C.

    The purpose of this study was to develop a broadcast economic computer simulation and to ascertain how a lecture-computer simulation game compared as a teaching method with a more traditional lecture and case study instructional methods. In each of three sections of a broadcast economics course, a different teaching methodology was employed: (1)…

  11. Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

  12. AEGIS geologic simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, M.G.

    1982-01-01

    The Geologic Simulation Model (GSM) is used by the AEGIS (Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems) program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory to simulate the dynamic geology and hydrology of a geologic nuclear waste repository site over a million-year period following repository closure. The GSM helps to organize geologic/hydrologic data; to focus attention on active natural processes by requiring their simulation; and, through interactive simulation and calibration, to reduce subjective evaluations of the geologic system. During each computer run, the GSM produces a million-year geologic history that is possible for the region and the repository site. In addition, the GSM records in permanent history files everything that occurred during that time span. Statistical analyses of data in the history files of several hundred simulations are used to classify typical evolutionary paths, to establish the probabilities associated with deviations from the typical paths, and to determine which types of perturbations of the geologic/hydrologic system, if any, are most likely to occur. These simulations will be evaluated by geologists familiar with the repository region to determine validity of the results. Perturbed systems that are determined to be the most realistic, within whatever probability limits are established, will be used for the analyses that involve radionuclide transport and dose models. The GSM is designed to be continuously refined and updated. Simulation models are site specific, and, although the submodels may have limited general applicability, the input data equirements necessitate detailed characterization of each site before application

  13. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  14. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  15. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  16. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers......, including all relevant factors in specific analyses is impossible, and it is therefore important to be aware of the most essential ones. As demonstrated in the literature review of Paper 1, a large number of factors may significantly influence fishermen’s short run behaviour, i.e. choice of gear type...

  17. Models and simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.J.; Sheppard, J.C.; Sullenberger, M.; Woodley, M.D.

    1983-09-01

    On-line mathematical models have been used successfully for computer controlled operation of SPEAR and PEP. The same model control concept is being implemented for the operation of the LINAC and for the Damping Ring, which will be part of the Stanford Linear Collider (SLC). The purpose of this paper is to describe the general relationships between models, simulations and the control system for any machine at SLAC. The work we have done on the development of the empirical model for the Damping Ring will be presented as an example

  18. PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-21

    PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

  19. Wake modeling and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Madsen Aagaard, Helge; Larsen, Torben J.

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, howev...... methodology has been implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2, and example simulations of wake situations, from the small Tjæreborg wind farm, have been performed showing satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements...

  20. The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Andrew J.

    2018-01-01

    The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

  1. Simulated annealing approach for solving economic load dispatch ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    thermodynamics to solve economic load dispatch (ELD) problems. ... evolutionary programming algorithm has been successfully applied for solving the ... concept behind the simulated annealing (SA) optimization is discussed in Section 3.

  2. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  3. [Population development and economic growth. A simulation analysis for Switzerland].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, C; Straubhaar, T

    1996-01-01

    "A simulation exercise of a general equilibrium model for Switzerland makes clear that the macroeconomic impacts of aging populations are not very strong. There is no need for urgent policy actions to avoid severe negative economic consequences....However, the aging of population affects negatively the net income of the active labor force. An increasing share of their gross salaries goes to the retirement system to finance the pension payments of a growing number of pensioners. Attempts to moderate the elderly dependency ratio would lower this burden for the active labor force. Options are an increase of the female participation rate, an increase of the labor participation rate of the elderly--[which] also means a higher retirement age--and an increasing flow of immigrants. But socioeconomic problems might probably generate practical limits on the extent to which immigration can be increased." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND FRE) excerpt

  4. Simulation - modeling - experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  5. Wake modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, G.C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Larsen, T.J.; Troldborg, N.

    2008-07-15

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however, have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture a stochastic model of the downstream wake meandering is formulated. In addition to the kinematic formulation of the dynamics of the 'meandering frame of reference', models characterizing the mean wake deficit as well as the added wake turbulence, described in the meandering frame of reference, are an integrated part the DWM model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. A computationally low cost model is developed for this purpose. Likewise, the character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed and trailed vorticity, has been approached by a simple semi-empirical model essentially based on an eddy viscosity philosophy. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the DWM approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power- and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct and attractive consequence of the model being based on the underlying physical process, and it potentially opens for optimization of wind farm topology, of wind farm operation as well as of control strategies for the individual turbine. To establish an integrated modeling tool, the DWM methodology has been implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2, and example simulations of wake situations, from the small Tjaereborg wind farm, have

  6. The Need of a New Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Cătălin POPA

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

  7. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  8. Biomolecular modelling and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Karabencheva-Christova, Tatyana

    2014-01-01

    Published continuously since 1944, the Advances in Protein Chemistry and Structural Biology series is the essential resource for protein chemists. Each volume brings forth new information about protocols and analysis of proteins. Each thematically organized volume is guest edited by leading experts in a broad range of protein-related topics. Describes advances in biomolecular modelling and simulations Chapters are written by authorities in their field Targeted to a wide audience of researchers, specialists, and students The information provided in the volume is well supported by a number of high quality illustrations, figures, and tables.

  9. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  10. A Study on the Economic Analysis for Overseas Project of New Nuclear Power Plant Using Binomial Option Pricing Model and Monte Carlo Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Beong Gwon; Roh, Myung Sub [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    Real options approach is suitable for evaluation of large-scale investment project with great uncertainties. Takizawa and Omori (2001) introduced a real option approach to calculate electricity price for economic feasibility. Rothwell (2006) modeled the net present value (NPV) of building an ABWR in Texas using ROA to determine the risk premium associated with net revenue uncertainty. W.C Yoon (2006) evaluated nuclear power plant construction value using DCF and ROA with sensitivity analysis. The value evaluations involved with nuclear power are very uncertain. This is because of a long period of construction as well as the cost uncertainties of decommissioning and nuclear waste management. Even more elements should be considered in new nuclear power valuation, including the uncertainty from the technology, operating costs, the potential risk of radiation, electricity mechanism and climate policy. In this respect, a traditional method such as discounted cash flow (DCF) can't fully catch the impacts of these uncertainties on nuclear power investment. So it is necessary to develop a proper method to handle such kinds of uncertainties to evaluate the new deployment of nuclear power plants. Meanwhile, overseas construction projects which are required capital investment, localization by target countries are increasing in these days. These elements may influence the uncertainty of project too.

  11. Economic models for battery energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

  12. Network models in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

    2014-01-01

    Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

  13. The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

    2007-01-01

    The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

  14. Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

  15. WASTES: Waste System Transportation and Economic Simulation--Version 2:

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sovers, R.A.; Shay, M.R.; Ouderkirk, S.J.; McNair, G.W.; Eagle, B.G.

    1988-02-01

    The Waste System Transportation and Economic Simulation (WASTES) Technical Reference Manual was written to describe and document the algorithms used within the WASTES model as implemented in Version 2.23. The manual will serve as a reference for users of the WASTES system. The intended audience for this manual are knowledgeable users of WASTES who have an interest in the underlying principles and algorithms used within the WASTES model. Each algorithm is described in nonprogrammers terminology, and the source and uncertainties of the constants in use by these algorithms are described. The manual also describes the general philosophy and rules used to: 1) determine the allocation and priority of spent fuel generation sources to facility destinations, 2) calculate transportation costs, and 3) estimate the cost of at-reactor ex-pool storage. A detailed description of the implementation of many of the algorithms is also included in the WASTES Programmers Reference Manual (Shay and Buxbaum 1986a). This manual is separated into sections based on the general usage of the algorithms being discussed. 8 refs., 14 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

  17. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  18. Introducing GEOPHIRES v2.0: Updated Geothermal Techno-Economic Simulation Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckers, Koenraad J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-02-14

    This paper presents an updated version of the geothermal techno-economic simulation tool GEOPHIRES (GEOthermal energy for Production of Heat and electricity ('IR') Economically Simulated). GEOPHIRES combines engineering models of the reservoir, wellbores, and surface plant facilities of a geothermal plant with an economic model to estimate the capital and operation and maintenance costs, lifetime energy production, and overall levelized cost of energy. The available end-use options are electricity, direct-use heat, and cogeneration. The main updates in the new version include conversion of the source code from FORTRAN to Python, the option to import temperature data (e.g., measured or from stand-alone reservoir simulator), updated cost correlations, and more flexibility in selecting the time step and number of injection and production wells. In this paper, we provide an overview of all the updates and two case studies to illustrate the tool's new capabilities.

  19. Notes on modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Antonio [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    These notes present a high-level overview of how modeling and simulation are carried out by practitioners. The discussion is of a general nature; no specific techniques are examined but the activities associated with all modeling and simulation approaches are briefly addressed. There is also a discussion of validation and verification and, at the end, a section on why modeling and simulation are useful.

  20. Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

  1. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  2. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  3. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  4. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  5. The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

  6. Combining Biophysical and Price Simulations to Assess the Economics of Long-Term Crop Rotations

    OpenAIRE

    Murray-Prior, Roy B.; Whish, J.; Carberry, Peter S.; Dalgleish, N.

    2003-01-01

    Biophysical simulation models (e.g. APSIM) using historical rainfall data are increasingly being used to provide yield and other data on crop rotations in various regions of Australia. However, to analyse the economics of these rotations it is desirable to incorporate the other main driver of profitability, price variation. Because the context was that APSIM was being used to simulate an existing trial site being monitored by a farmer group Gross Margin output was considered most appropriate....

  7. Simulation Model of a Transient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jauch, Clemens; Sørensen, Poul; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation model of a controller that enables an active-stall wind turbine to ride through transient faults. The simulated wind turbine is connected to a simple model of a power system. Certain fault scenarios are specified and the turbine shall be able to sustain operati...

  8. Design of in-situ reactive wall systems - a combined hydraulical-geochemical-economical simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teutsch, G.; Tolksdorff, J.; Schad, H.

    1997-01-01

    The paper presents a coupled hydraulical-geochemical-economical simulation model for the design of in-situ reactive wall systems. More specific, the model is used for cost-optimization and sensitivity analysis of a funnel-and-gate system with an in-situ sorption reactor. The groundwater flow and advective transport are simulated under steady-state conditions using a finite-difference numerical model. This model is coupled to an analytical solution describing the sorption kinetics of hydrophobic organic compounds within the reactor (gate). The third part of the model system is an economical model which calculates (a) the investment costs for the funnel-and-gate construction and (b) the operation cost based on the number of reactor refills, which depends on the breakthrough time for a given contaminant and the anticipated total operation time. For practical applications a simplified approximation of the cost-function is derived and tested

  9. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  10. Evolutionary-Simulative Methodology in the Management of Social and Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konyavskiy V.A.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article outlines the main provisions of the evolutionary-simulative methodology (ESM which is a methodology of mathematical modeling of equilibrium random processes (CPR, widely used in the economy. It discusses the basic directions of use of ESM solutions for social problems and economic management systems.

  11. Cognitive models embedded in system simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Wolf, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    If we are to discuss and consider cognitive models, we must first come to grips with two questions: (1) What is cognition; (2) What is a model. Presumably, the answers to these questions can provide a basis for defining a cognitive model. Accordingly, this paper first places these two questions into perspective. Then, cognitive models are set within the context of computer simulation models and a number of computer simulations of cognitive processes are described. Finally, pervasive issues are discussed vis-a-vis cognitive modeling in the computer simulation context

  12. Introducing GEOPHIRES v2.0: Updated Geothermal Techno-Economic Simulation Tool: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beckers, Koenraad J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-02-16

    This paper presents an updated version of the geothermal techno-economic simulation tool GEOPHIRES (GEOthermal Energy for Production of Heat and electricity (IR) Economically Simulated). GEOPHIRES combines reservoir, wellbore, surface plant and economic models to estimate the capital, and operation and maintenance costs, lifetime energy production, and overall levelized cost of energy of a geothermal plant. The available end-use options are electricity, direct-use heat and cogeneration. The main updates in the new version include conversion of the source code from FORTRAN to Python, the option to couple to an external reservoir simulator, updated cost correlations, and more flexibility in selecting the time step and number of injection and production wells. An overview of all the updates and two case-studies to illustrate the tool's new capabilities are provided in this paper.

  13. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  14. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  15. Economic aspects and models for building codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

    It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

  16. General introduction to simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2012-01-01

    trials. However, if simulation models would be used, good quality input data must be available. To model FMD, several disease spread models are available. For this project, we chose three simulation model; Davis Animal Disease Spread (DADS), that has been upgraded to DTU-DADS, InterSpread Plus (ISP......Monte Carlo simulation can be defined as a representation of real life systems to gain insight into their functions and to investigate the effects of alternative conditions or actions on the modeled system. Models are a simplification of a system. Most often, it is best to use experiments and field...... trials to investigate the effect of alternative conditions or actions on a specific system. Nonetheless, field trials are expensive and sometimes not possible to conduct, as in case of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Instead, simulation models can be a good and cheap substitute for experiments and field...

  17. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  18. Application of Supercomputer Technologies for Simulation Of Socio-Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Valentinovich Okrepilov

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available To date, an extensive experience has been accumulated in investigation of problems related to quality, assessment of management systems, modeling of economic system sustainability. The performed studies have created a basis for development of a new research area — Economics of Quality. Its tools allow to use opportunities of model simulation for construction of the mathematical models adequately reflecting the role of quality in natural, technical, social regularities of functioning of the complex socio-economic systems. Extensive application and development of models, and also system modeling with use of supercomputer technologies, on our deep belief, will bring the conducted research of socio-economic systems to essentially new level. Moreover, the current scientific research makes a significant contribution to model simulation of multi-agent social systems and that is not less important, it belongs to the priority areas in development of science and technology in our country. This article is devoted to the questions of supercomputer technologies application in public sciences, first of all, — regarding technical realization of the large-scale agent-focused models (AFM. The essence of this tool is that owing to the power computer increase it has become possible to describe the behavior of many separate fragments of a difficult system, as socio-economic systems are. The article also deals with the experience of foreign scientists and practicians in launching the AFM on supercomputers, and also the example of AFM developed in CEMI RAS, stages and methods of effective calculating kernel display of multi-agent system on architecture of a modern supercomputer will be analyzed. The experiments on the basis of model simulation on forecasting the population of St. Petersburg according to three scenarios as one of the major factors influencing the development of socio-economic system and quality of life of the population are presented in the

  19. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  20. Simulation - modeling - experiment; Simulation - modelisation - experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  1. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  2. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  3. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  4. Logistic map with memory from economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

    2017-01-01

    A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

  5. Progress in modeling and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindler, E

    1998-01-01

    For the modeling of systems, the computers are more and more used while the other "media" (including the human intellect) carrying the models are abandoned. For the modeling of knowledges, i.e. of more or less general concepts (possibly used to model systems composed of instances of such concepts), the object-oriented programming is nowadays widely used. For the modeling of processes existing and developing in the time, computer simulation is used, the results of which are often presented by means of animation (graphical pictures moving and changing in time). Unfortunately, the object-oriented programming tools are commonly not designed to be of a great use for simulation while the programming tools for simulation do not enable their users to apply the advantages of the object-oriented programming. Nevertheless, there are exclusions enabling to use general concepts represented at a computer, for constructing simulation models and for their easy modification. They are described in the present paper, together with true definitions of modeling, simulation and object-oriented programming (including cases that do not satisfy the definitions but are dangerous to introduce misunderstanding), an outline of their applications and of their further development. In relation to the fact that computing systems are being introduced to be control components into a large spectrum of (technological, social and biological) systems, the attention is oriented to models of systems containing modeling components.

  6. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  7. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  8. An economic model for seaborne oil trade

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kian-Wah

    1996-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

  9. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  10. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  11. FASTBUS simulation models in VHDL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelquist, G.

    1992-11-01

    Four hardware simulation models implementing the FASTBUS protocol are described. The models are written in the VHDL hardware description language to obtain portability, i.e. without relations to any specific simulator. They include two complete FASTBUS devices, a full-duplex segment interconnect and ancillary logic for the segment. In addition, master and slave models using a high level interface to describe FASTBUS operations, are presented. With these models different configurations of FASTBUS systems can be evaluated and the FASTBUS transactions of new devices can be verified. (au)

  12. Model reduction for circuit simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Hinze, Michael; Maten, E Jan W Ter

    2011-01-01

    Simulation based on mathematical models plays a major role in computer aided design of integrated circuits (ICs). Decreasing structure sizes, increasing packing densities and driving frequencies require the use of refined mathematical models, and to take into account secondary, parasitic effects. This leads to very high dimensional problems which nowadays require simulation times too large for the short time-to-market demands in industry. Modern Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques present a way out of this dilemma in providing surrogate models which keep the main characteristics of the devi

  13. Economical modelling of social and moral norms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyborg, Karine

    2001-01-01

    Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

  14. Greenhouse simulation models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bot, G.P.A.

    1989-01-01

    A model is a representation of a real system to describe some properties i.e. internal factors of that system (out-puts) as function of some external factors (inputs). It is impossible to describe the relation between all internal factors (if even all internal factors could be defined) and all

  15. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  16. A VRLA battery simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascoe, Phillip E.; Anbuky, Adnan H.

    2004-01-01

    A valve regulated lead acid (VRLA) battery simulation model is an invaluable tool for the standby power system engineer. The obvious use for such a model is to allow the assessment of battery performance. This may involve determining the influence of cells suffering from state of health (SOH) degradation on the performance of the entire string, or the running of test scenarios to ascertain the most suitable battery size for the application. In addition, it enables the engineer to assess the performance of the overall power system. This includes, for example, running test scenarios to determine the benefits of various load shedding schemes. It also allows the assessment of other power system components, either for determining their requirements and/or vulnerabilities. Finally, a VRLA battery simulation model is vital as a stand alone tool for educational purposes. Despite the fundamentals of the VRLA battery having been established for over 100 years, its operating behaviour is often poorly understood. An accurate simulation model enables the engineer to gain a better understanding of VRLA battery behaviour. A system level multipurpose VRLA battery simulation model is presented. It allows an arbitrary battery (capacity, SOH, number of cells and number of strings) to be simulated under arbitrary operating conditions (discharge rate, ambient temperature, end voltage, charge rate and initial state of charge). The model accurately reflects the VRLA battery discharge and recharge behaviour. This includes the complex start of discharge region known as the coup de fouet

  17. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  18. Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

    2015-01-01

    The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs

  19. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  20. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 3. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation - Modelling Deterministic Systems. N K Srinivasan. General Article Volume 6 Issue 3 March 2001 pp 46-54. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  1. Microfiltration of thin stillage: Process simulation and economic analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    In plant scale operations, multistage membrane systems have been adopted for cost minimization. We considered design optimization and operation of a continuous microfiltration (MF) system for the corn dry grind process. The objectives were to develop a model to simulate a multistage MF system, optim...

  2. Economic simulation to support investment decisions in pig farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Backus, G.B.C.

    1994-01-01

    The study described in this thesis focuses on the development and use of a model that simulates the consequences of long-term investment decisions in pig farming. The thesis is composed of six parts. Chapter 1 deals with a basic review of the literature on strategic planning under risk and

  3. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  4. Numerical simulation of Higgs models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaster, A.

    1995-10-01

    The SU(2) Higgs and the Schwinger model on the lattice were analysed. Numerical simulations of the SU(2) Higgs model were performed to study the finite temperature electroweak phase transition. With the help of the multicanonical method the distribution of an order parameter at the phase transition point was measured. This was used to obtain the order of the phase transition and the value of the interface tension with the histogram method. Numerical simulations were also performed at zero temperature to perform renormalization. The measured values for the Wilson loops were used to determine the static potential and from this the renormalized gauge coupling. The Schwinger model was simulated at different gauge couplings to analyse the properties of the Kaplan-Shamir fermions. The prediction that the mass parameter gets only multiplicative renormalization was tested and verified. (orig.)

  5. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  6. Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

    2017-12-01

    The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  8. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  9. Plasma modelling and numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dijk, J; Kroesen, G M W; Bogaerts, A

    2009-01-01

    Plasma modelling is an exciting subject in which virtually all physical disciplines are represented. Plasma models combine the electromagnetic, statistical and fluid dynamical theories that have their roots in the 19th century with the modern insights concerning the structure of matter that were developed throughout the 20th century. The present cluster issue consists of 20 invited contributions, which are representative of the state of the art in plasma modelling and numerical simulation. These contributions provide an in-depth discussion of the major theories and modelling and simulation strategies, and their applications to contemporary plasma-based technologies. In this editorial review, we introduce and complement those papers by providing a bird's eye perspective on plasma modelling and discussing the historical context in which it has surfaced. (editorial review)

  10. Realistic electricity market simulator for energy and economic studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal-Agustin, Jose L.; Contreras, Javier; Conejo, Antonio J.; Martin-Flores, Raul

    2007-01-01

    Electricity market simulators have become a useful tool to train engineers in the power industry. With the maturing of electricity markets throughout the world, there is a need for sophisticated software tools that can replicate the actual behavior of power markets. In most of these markets, power producers/consumers submit production/demand bids and the Market Operator clears the market producing a single price per hour. What makes markets different from each other are the bidding rules and the clearing algorithms to balance the market. This paper presents a realistic simulator of the day-ahead electricity market of mainland Spain. All the rules that govern this market are modeled. This simulator can be used either to train employees by power companies or to teach electricity markets courses in universities. To illustrate the tool, several realistic case studies are presented and discussed. (author)

  11. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  12. DFSIM with economics: A financial analysis option for the DFSIM Douglas-fir simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roger O. Fight; Judith M. Chittester; Gary W. Clendenen

    1984-01-01

    A modified version of the DFSIM Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesii) growth and yield simulator, DFSIM WITH ECONOMICS, now has an economics option that allows the user to estimate present net worth at the same time a silvicultural regime is simulated. If desired, the economics option will apply a...

  13. Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

    1986-01-01

    Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

  14. Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

  15. Model for Simulation Atmospheric Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1976-01-01

    A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance...... eigenfunctions and estimates of the distributions of the corresponding expansion coefficients. The simulation method utilizes the eigenfunction expansion procedure to produce preliminary time histories of the three velocity components simultaneously. As a final step, a spectral shaping procedure is then applied....... The method is unique in modeling the three velocity components simultaneously, and it is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved. It is concluded that the model provides a practical, operational simulator of atmospheric turbulence....

  16. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  17. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

  18. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  19. A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-12-01

    This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  20. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  1. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  2. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

    1985-12-01

    This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  3. Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

    2013-11-01

    The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

  4. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  5. Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swinhoe, Martyn T.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of the role of modeling and simulation in Safeguards R and D and introduce you to (some of) the tools used. Some definitions are: (1) Modeling - the representation, often mathematical, of a process, concept, or operation of a system, often implemented by a computer program; (2) Simulation - the representation of the behavior or characteristics of one system through the use of another system, especially a computer program designed for the purpose; and (3) Safeguards - the timely detection of diversion of significant quantities of nuclear material. The role of modeling and simulation are: (1) Calculate amounts of material (plant modeling); (2) Calculate signatures of nuclear material etc. (source terms); and (3) Detector performance (radiation transport and detection). Plant modeling software (e.g. FACSIM) gives the flows and amount of material stored at all parts of the process. In safeguards this allow us to calculate the expected uncertainty of the mass and evaluate the expected MUF. We can determine the measurement accuracy required to achieve a certain performance.

  6. Modeling and Simulation of Nanoindentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sixie; Zhou, Caizhi

    2017-11-01

    Nanoindentation is a hardness test method applied to small volumes of material which can provide some unique effects and spark many related research activities. To fully understand the phenomena observed during nanoindentation tests, modeling and simulation methods have been developed to predict the mechanical response of materials during nanoindentation. However, challenges remain with those computational approaches, because of their length scale, predictive capability, and accuracy. This article reviews recent progress and challenges for modeling and simulation of nanoindentation, including an overview of molecular dynamics, the quasicontinuum method, discrete dislocation dynamics, and the crystal plasticity finite element method, and discusses how to integrate multiscale modeling approaches seamlessly with experimental studies to understand the length-scale effects and microstructure evolution during nanoindentation tests, creating a unique opportunity to establish new calibration procedures for the nanoindentation technique.

  7. Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

  8. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  9. NRTA simulation by modeling PFPF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asano, Takashi; Fujiwara, Shigeo; Takahashi, Saburo; Shibata, Junichi; Totsu, Noriko

    2003-01-01

    In PFPF, NRTA system has been applied since 1991. It has been confirmed by evaluating facility material accountancy data provided from operator in each IIV that a significant MUF was not generated. In case of throughput of PFPF scale, MUF can be evaluated with a sufficient detection probability by the present NRTA evaluation manner. However, by increasing of throughput, the uncertainty of material accountancy will increase, and the detection probability will decline. The relationship between increasing of throughput and declining of detection probability and the maximum throughput upon application of following measures with a sufficient detection probability were evaluated by simulation of NRTA system. This simulation was performed by modeling of PFPF. Measures for increasing detection probability are shown as follows. Shortening of the evaluation interval. Segmentation of evaluation area. This report shows the results of these simulations. (author)

  10. Stabilising the global greenhouse. A simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michaelis, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecolocially determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically specified and adapted to a dynamic Gams-algorithm. By various simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas accumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) A comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO 2 emissions, and iii) a ten-year moratorium that postpones abatement effort until new scientific evidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whereas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small. (orig.)

  11. Repository simulation model: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    This report documents the application of computer simulation for the design analysis of the nuclear waste repository's waste handling and packaging operations. The Salt Repository Simulation Model was used to evaluate design alternatives during the conceptual design phase of the Salt Repository Project. Code development and verification was performed by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWL). The focus of this report is to relate the experience gained during the development and application of the Salt Repository Simulation Model to future repository design phases. Design of the repository's waste handling and packaging systems will require sophisticated analysis tools to evaluate complex operational and logistical design alternatives. Selection of these design alternatives in the Advanced Conceptual Design (ACD) and License Application Design (LAD) phases must be supported by analysis to demonstrate that the repository design will cost effectively meet DOE's mandated emplacement schedule and that uncertainties in the performance of the repository's systems have been objectively evaluated. Computer simulation of repository operations will provide future repository designers with data and insights that no other analytical form of analysis can provide. 6 refs., 10 figs

  12. Simulating WTP Values from Random-Coefficient Models

    OpenAIRE

    Maurus Rischatsch

    2009-01-01

    Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) designed to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) values are very popular in health economics. With increased computation power and advanced simulation techniques, random-coefficient models have gained an increasing importance in applied work as they allow for taste heterogeneity. This paper discusses the parametrical derivation of WTP values from estimated random-coefficient models and shows how these values can be simulated in cases where they do not have a kn...

  13. DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.R.

    2005-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

  14. Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

    1989-01-01

    The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

  15. Simulating spin models on GPU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, Martin

    2011-09-01

    Over the last couple of years it has been realized that the vast computational power of graphics processing units (GPUs) could be harvested for purposes other than the video game industry. This power, which at least nominally exceeds that of current CPUs by large factors, results from the relative simplicity of the GPU architectures as compared to CPUs, combined with a large number of parallel processing units on a single chip. To benefit from this setup for general computing purposes, the problems at hand need to be prepared in a way to profit from the inherent parallelism and hierarchical structure of memory accesses. In this contribution I discuss the performance potential for simulating spin models, such as the Ising model, on GPU as compared to conventional simulations on CPU.

  16. Standard for Models and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Martin J.

    2016-01-01

    This NASA Technical Standard establishes uniform practices in modeling and simulation to ensure essential requirements are applied to the design, development, and use of models and simulations (MS), while ensuring acceptance criteria are defined by the program project and approved by the responsible Technical Authority. It also provides an approved set of requirements, recommendations, and criteria with which MS may be developed, accepted, and used in support of NASA activities. As the MS disciplines employed and application areas involved are broad, the common aspects of MS across all NASA activities are addressed. The discipline-specific details of a given MS should be obtained from relevant recommended practices. The primary purpose is to reduce the risks associated with MS-influenced decisions by ensuring the complete communication of the credibility of MS results.

  17. Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Græsbøll, Kaare; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

    2016-01-01

    We describe a new mechanistic bioeconomic model for simulating the spread of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build up in five...... control actions from the Danish MAP control program, it was not economically attractive since the expenses for the control actions outweigh the benefits. Furthermore, the three most popular control actions against the spread of MAP on the farm were found to be costly and inefficient in lowering...

  18. Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

  19. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  20. Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...... grid services, both for peak reduction and for ancillary services, by absorbing short term variations in the electricity production. In this paper the Economic MPC minimizes the cost of electricity consumption for a single EV. Simulations show savings of 50–60% of the electricity costs compared...... to uncontrolled charging from load shifting based on driving pattern predictions. The future energy system in Denmark will most likely be based on renewable energy sources e.g. wind and solar power. These green energy sources introduce stochastic fluctuations in the electricity production. Therefore, energy...

  2. Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred

    2016-04-01

    Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household-level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy-wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al-Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood-affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

  3. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2006-10-01

    The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

  4. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  5. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen

    2011-08-15

    To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal

  6. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by

  7. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

    OpenAIRE

    Zining Yang

    2016-01-01

    In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED) is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at...

  8. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  9. Advances in Intelligent Modelling and Simulation Simulation Tools and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Oplatková, Zuzana; Carvalho, Marco; Kisiel-Dorohinicki, Marek

    2012-01-01

    The human capacity to abstract complex systems and phenomena into simplified models has played a critical role in the rapid evolution of our modern industrial processes and scientific research. As a science and an art, Modelling and Simulation have been one of the core enablers of this remarkable human trace, and have become a topic of great importance for researchers and practitioners. This book was created to compile some of the most recent concepts, advances, challenges and ideas associated with Intelligent Modelling and Simulation frameworks, tools and applications. The first chapter discusses the important aspects of a human interaction and the correct interpretation of results during simulations. The second chapter gets to the heart of the analysis of entrepreneurship by means of agent-based modelling and simulations. The following three chapters bring together the central theme of simulation frameworks, first describing an agent-based simulation framework, then a simulator for electrical machines, and...

  10. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph; Houbak, Niels

    2004-01-01

    In the present work a framework for optimizing the design of boilers for dynamic operation has been developed. A cost function to be minimized during the optimization has been formulated and for the present design variables related to the Boiler Volume and the Boiler load Gradient (i.e. ring rate...... on the boiler) have been dened. Furthermore a number of constraints related to: minimum and maximum boiler load gradient, minimum boiler size, Shrinking and Swelling and Steam Space Load have been dened. For dening the constraints related to the required boiler volume a dynamic model for simulating the boiler...... performance has been developed. Outputs from the simulations are shrinking and swelling of water level in the drum during for example a start-up of the boiler, these gures combined with the requirements with respect to allowable water level uctuations in the drum denes the requirements with respect to drum...

  11. SEMI Modeling and Simulation Roadmap

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermina, W.L.

    2000-10-02

    With the exponential growth in the power of computing hardware and software, modeling and simulation is becoming a key enabler for the rapid design of reliable Microsystems. One vision of the future microsystem design process would include the following primary software capabilities: (1) The development of 3D part design, through standard CAD packages, with automatic design rule checks that guarantee the manufacturability and performance of the microsystem. (2) Automatic mesh generation, for 3D parts as manufactured, that permits computational simulation of the process steps, and the performance and reliability analysis for the final microsystem. (3) Computer generated 2D layouts for process steps that utilize detailed process models to generate the layout and process parameter recipe required to achieve the desired 3D part. (4) Science-based computational tools that can simulate the process physics, and the coupled thermal, fluid, structural, solid mechanics, electromagnetic and material response governing the performance and reliability of the microsystem. (5) Visualization software that permits the rapid visualization of 3D parts including cross-sectional maps, performance and reliability analysis results, and process simulation results. In addition to these desired software capabilities, a desired computing infrastructure would include massively parallel computers that enable rapid high-fidelity analysis, coupled with networked compute servers that permit computing at a distance. We now discuss the individual computational components that are required to achieve this vision. There are three primary areas of focus: design capabilities, science-based capabilities and computing infrastructure. Within each of these areas, there are several key capability requirements.

  12. Photovoltaic array performance simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menicucci, D. F.

    1986-09-15

    The experience of the solar industry confirms that, despite recent cost reductions, the profitability of photovoltaic (PV) systems is often marginal and the configuration and sizing of a system is a critical problem for the design engineer. Construction and evaluation of experimental systems are expensive and seldom justifiable. A mathematical model or computer-simulation program is a desirable alternative, provided reliable results can be obtained. Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque (SNLA), has been studying PV-system modeling techniques in an effort to develop an effective tool to be used by engineers and architects in the design of cost-effective PV systems. This paper reviews two of the sources of error found in previous PV modeling programs, presents the remedies developed to correct these errors, and describes a new program that incorporates these improvements.

  13. Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

    Science.gov (United States)

    Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

  14. Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

    2015-05-01

    The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

  15. Operations planning simulation: Model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    The use of simulation modeling for the identification of system sensitivities to internal and external forces and variables is discussed. The technique provides a means of exploring alternate system procedures and processes, so that these alternatives may be considered on a mutually comparative basis permitting the selection of a mode or modes of operation which have potential advantages to the system user and the operator. These advantages are measurements is system efficiency are: (1) the ability to meet specific schedules for operations, mission or mission readiness requirements or performance standards and (2) to accomplish the objectives within cost effective limits.

  16. Simulation and economic analysis of bovine sex selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Travassos Beltrame

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available A simulation model implemented in the programming software Delphi XE® was applied to evaluate sex selection in bovine. The hypothesis under investigation was that a dynamic model with stochastic and deterministic elements could detect the sexed semen technique to minimize pregnancy cost and to determine the adequate number of recipients required for in vivo (ET and in vitro embryo production (IVP in the proposed scenarios. Sex selection was compared through semen sexed using flow cytometry (C1 and density gradient centrifugation techniques (C2 in ET and IVP. Sensibility analyses were used to identify the adequate number of recipients for each scenario. This number was reinserted into the model to determine the biological and financial values that maximized ET and IVP using sexed semen (C1M and C2M. New scenarios showed that the density gradient technique minimized pregnancy cost based on the proposed scenarios. In addition, the adequate number of recipients (ET - C1M - 115 and C2M - 105/(IVP - C1M - 145 and C2M - 140 per donor used was determined to minimize the pregnancy cost in all scenarios.

  17. An expert system for national economy model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roljić Lazo

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS. ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1 small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2 Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP, (3 data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4 software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5 software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia. Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate

  18. An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Bryan

    1976-01-01

    Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

  19. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  20. Dynamic Simulation and Exergo-Economic Optimization of a Hybrid Solar–Geothermal Cogeneration Plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Calise

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a dynamic simulation model and a parametric analysis of a solar-geothermal hybrid cogeneration plant based on an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC powered by a medium-enthalpy geothermal resource and a Parabolic Trough Collector solar field. The fluid temperature supplying heat to the ORC varies continuously as a function of the solar irradiation, affecting both the electrical and thermal energies produced by the system. Thus, a dynamic simulation was performed. The ORC model, developed in Engineering Equation Solver, is based on zero-dimensional energy and mass balances and includes specific algorithms to evaluate the off-design system performance. The overall simulation model of the solar-geothermal cogenerative plant was implemented in the TRNSYS environment. Here, the ORC model is imported, whereas the models of the other components of the system are developed on the basis of literature data. Results are analyzed on different time bases presenting energetic, economic and exergetic performance data. Finally, a rigorous optimization has been performed to determine the set of system design/control parameters minimizing simple payback period and exergy destruction rate. The system is profitable when a significant amount of the heat produced is consumed. The highest irreversibilities are due to the solar field and to the heat exchangers.

  1. Impulse pumping modelling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierre, B; Gudmundsson, J S

    2010-01-01

    Impulse pumping is a new pumping method based on propagation of pressure waves. Of particular interest is the application of impulse pumping to artificial lift situations, where fluid is transported from wellbore to wellhead using pressure waves generated at wellhead. The motor driven element of an impulse pumping apparatus is therefore located at wellhead and can be separated from the flowline. Thus operation and maintenance of an impulse pump are facilitated. The paper describes the different elements of an impulse pumping apparatus, reviews the physical principles and details the modelling of the novel pumping method. Results from numerical simulations of propagation of pressure waves in water-filled pipelines are then presented for illustrating impulse pumping physical principles, and validating the described modelling with experimental data.

  2. Traffic simulation based ship collision probability modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goerlandt, Floris, E-mail: floris.goerlandt@tkk.f [Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo (Finland); Kujala, Pentti [Aalto University, School of Science and Technology, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo (Finland)

    2011-01-15

    Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human, environmental and economic loss. In a risk analysis of ship collisions, it is important to get a reasonable estimate for the probability of such accidents and the consequences they lead to. In this paper, a method is proposed to assess the probability of vessels colliding with each other. The method is capable of determining the expected number of accidents, the locations where and the time when they are most likely to occur, while providing input for models concerned with the expected consequences. At the basis of the collision detection algorithm lays an extensive time domain micro-simulation of vessel traffic in the given area. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to obtain a meaningful prediction of the relevant factors of the collision events. Data obtained through the Automatic Identification System is analyzed in detail to obtain realistic input data for the traffic simulation: traffic routes, the number of vessels on each route, the ship departure times, main dimensions and sailing speed. The results obtained by the proposed method for the studied case of the Gulf of Finland are presented, showing reasonable agreement with registered accident and near-miss data.

  3. Simulation model of a PWR power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, N.

    1987-03-01

    A simulation model of a hypothetical PWR power plant is described. A large number of disturbances and failures in plant function can be simulated. The model is written as seven modules to the modular simulation system for continuous processes DYSIM and serves also as a user example of this system. The model runs in Fortran 77 on the IBM-PC-AT. (author)

  4. Economic justification of robotic systems using graphical simulation as a tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, P.C.

    1995-01-01

    This paper outlines the simulation and analysis approach taken to address radiation dose reduction using robotic automation from the operational and economic standpoints for the DOE Civilian Radioactive Waste Management system and for the transuranic wave loading facilities within the DOE complex. Simulations of the robotic operations using validated software are described. These simulations provide through-put, capital and operating costs for an economic benefit-cost analysis. Benefit-cost analysis results are also presented

  5. Modeling and computational simulation of the osmotic evaporation process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freddy Forero Longas

    2016-09-01

    Conclusions: It was found that for the conditions studied the Knudsen diffusion model is most suitable to describe the transfer of water vapor through the hydrophobic membrane. Simulations developed adequately describe the process of osmotic evaporation, becoming a tool for faster economic development of this technology.

  6. Plasma disruption modeling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassanein, A.

    1994-01-01

    Disruptions in tokamak reactors are considered a limiting factor to successful operation and reliable design. The behavior of plasma-facing components during a disruption is critical to the overall integrity of the reactor. Erosion of plasma facing-material (PFM) surfaces due to thermal energy dump during the disruption can severely limit the lifetime of these components and thus diminish the economic feasibility of the reactor. A comprehensive understanding of the interplay of various physical processes during a disruption is essential for determining component lifetime and potentially improving the performance of such components. There are three principal stages in modeling the behavior of PFM during a disruption. Initially, the incident plasma particles will deposit their energy directly on the PFM surface, heating it to a very high temperature where ablation occurs. Models for plasma-material interactions have been developed and used to predict material thermal evolution during the disruption. Within a few microseconds after the start of the disruption, enough material is vaporized to intercept most of the incoming plasma particles. Models for plasma-vapor interactions are necessary to predict vapor cloud expansion and hydrodynamics. Continuous heating of the vapor cloud above the material surface by the incident plasma particles will excite, ionize, and cause vapor atoms to emit thermal radiation. Accurate models for radiation transport in the vapor are essential for calculating the net radiated flux to the material surface which determines the final erosion thickness and consequently component lifetime. A comprehensive model that takes into account various stages of plasma-material interaction has been developed and used to predict erosion rates during reactor disruption, as well during induced disruption in laboratory experiments

  7. A Cow- and Herd-specific Bio-Economic Model of Intramammary Infections in Dairy Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Gussmann, Maya Katrin; Græsbøll, Kaare

    Introduction. Mastitis, or intramammary infection (IMI), is one of the most significant diseases in dairy herds worldwide. It is caused by environmental and contagious bacteria. Simulation models have proven useful for evaluating the effect of different control strategies. However, previous...... published models are not cow-specific and therefore not so detailed in the simulation of host-pathogen interactions. If a simulation model is to be used by dairy farmers as a decision-making tool, it needs to be cow-specific because daily management decisions are made on cow level. Furthermore, as IMI......, contagious or mixed), the model should be able to reflect this diversity. Our objective was thus to create a pathogen-, cow- and herd-specific bio-economic simulation model that could simulate multiple pathogens and strains at the same time within a dairy herd. This model should be able to simulate realistic...

  8. VISUAL-SEVEIF, a tool for integrating fire behavior simulation and economic evaluation of the impact of Wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco Rodríguez y Silva; Juan Ramón Molina Martínez; Miguel Ángel Herrera Machuca; Jesús Mª Rodríguez Leal

    2013-01-01

    Progress made in recent years in fire science, particularly as applied to forest fire protection, coupled with the increased power offered by mathematical processors integrated into computers, has led to important developments in the field of dynamic and static simulation of forest fires. Furthermore, and similarly, econometric models applied to economic...

  9. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  10. Farm-specific economic value of automatic lameness detection systems in dairy cattle: From concepts to operational simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Gucht, Tim; Saeys, Wouter; Van Meensel, Jef; Van Nuffel, Annelies; Vangeyte, Jurgen; Lauwers, Ludwig

    2018-01-01

    Although prototypes of automatic lameness detection systems for dairy cattle exist, information about their economic value is lacking. In this paper, a conceptual and operational framework for simulating the farm-specific economic value of automatic lameness detection systems was developed and tested on 4 system types: walkover pressure plates, walkover pressure mats, camera systems, and accelerometers. The conceptual framework maps essential factors that determine economic value (e.g., lameness prevalence, incidence and duration, lameness costs, detection performance, and their relationships). The operational simulation model links treatment costs and avoided losses with detection results and farm-specific information, such as herd size and lameness status. Results show that detection performance, herd size, discount rate, and system lifespan have a large influence on economic value. In addition, lameness prevalence influences the economic value, stressing the importance of an adequate prior estimation of the on-farm prevalence. The simulations provide first estimates for the upper limits for purchase prices of automatic detection systems. The framework allowed for identification of knowledge gaps obstructing more accurate economic value estimation. These include insights in cost reductions due to early detection and treatment, and links between specific lameness causes and their related losses. Because this model provides insight in the trade-offs between automatic detection systems' performance and investment price, it is a valuable tool to guide future research and developments. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk reserve constrained economic dispatch model with wind power penetration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, W.; Sun, H.; Peng, Y. [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024 (China)

    2010-12-15

    This paper develops a modified economic dispatch (ED) optimization model with wind power penetration. Due to the uncertain nature of wind speed, both overestimation and underestimation of the available wind power are compensated using the up and down spinning reserves. In order to determine both of these two reserve demands, the risk-based up and down spinning reserve constraints are presented considering not only the uncertainty of available wind power, but also the load forecast error and generator outage rates. The predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method is utilized to solve the proposed ED model. Simulation results of a system with ten conventional generators and one wind farm demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. (authors)

  12. Galaxy Alignments: Theory, Modelling & Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiessling, Alina; Cacciato, Marcello; Joachimi, Benjamin; Kirk, Donnacha; Kitching, Thomas D.; Leonard, Adrienne; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Schäfer, Björn Malte; Sifón, Cristóbal; Brown, Michael L.; Rassat, Anais

    2015-11-01

    The shapes of galaxies are not randomly oriented on the sky. During the galaxy formation and evolution process, environment has a strong influence, as tidal gravitational fields in the large-scale structure tend to align nearby galaxies. Additionally, events such as galaxy mergers affect the relative alignments of both the shapes and angular momenta of galaxies throughout their history. These "intrinsic galaxy alignments" are known to exist, but are still poorly understood. This review will offer a pedagogical introduction to the current theories that describe intrinsic galaxy alignments, including the apparent difference in intrinsic alignment between early- and late-type galaxies and the latest efforts to model them analytically. It will then describe the ongoing efforts to simulate intrinsic alignments using both N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. Due to the relative youth of this field, there is still much to be done to understand intrinsic galaxy alignments and this review summarises the current state of the field, providing a solid basis for future work.

  13. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  14. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  15. Simulating the Epidemiological and Economic Impact of Paratuberculosis Control Actions in Dairy Cattle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Kirkeby

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe a new mechanistic bio-economic model for simulating the spread of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP within a dairy cattle herd. The model includes age-dependent susceptibility for infection; age-dependent sensitivity for detection; environmental MAP build-up in five separate areas of the farm; in utero infection; infection via colostrum and waste milk, and it allows for realistic culling (i.e. due to other diseases by including a ranking system. We calibrated the model using a unique dataset from Denmark, including 102 random farms with no control actions against spread of MAP. Likewise, four control actions recommended in the Danish MAP control program were implemented in the model based on reported management strategies in Danish dairy herds in a MAP control scheme. We tested the model parameterization in a sensitivity analysis. We show that a test-and-cull strategy is on average the most cost-effective solution to decrease the prevalence and increase the total net revenue on a farm with low hygiene, but not more profitable than no control strategy on a farm with average hygiene. Although it is possible to eradicate MAP from the farm by implementing all four control actions from the Danish MAP control program, it was not economically attractive since the expenses for the control actions outweigh the benefits. Furthermore, the three most popular control actions against the spread of MAP on the farm were found to be costly and inefficient in lowering the prevalence when used independently.

  16. Modeling and simulation the computer science of illusion

    CERN Document Server

    Raczynski, Stanislaw

    2006-01-01

    Simulation is the art of using tools - physical or conceptual models, or computer hardware and software, to attempt to create the illusion of reality. The discipline has in recent years expanded to include the modelling of systems that rely on human factors and therefore possess a large proportion of uncertainty, such as social, economic or commercial systems. These new applications make the discipline of modelling and simulation a field of dynamic growth and new research. Stanislaw Raczynski outlines the considerable and promising research that is being conducted to counter the problems of

  17. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  18. THE MARK I BUSINESS SYSTEM SIMULATION MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    of a large-scale business simulation model as a vehicle for doing research in management controls. The major results of the program were the...development of the Mark I business simulation model and the Simulation Package (SIMPAC). SIMPAC is a method and set of programs facilitating the construction...of large simulation models. The object of this document is to describe the Mark I Corporation model, state why parts of the business were modeled as they were, and indicate the research applications of the model. (Author)

  19. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-07

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  20. Proceedings of the 17. IASTED international conference on modelling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wamkeue, R. (comp.) [Quebec Univ., Abitibi-Temiscaminque, PQ (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    The International Association of Science and Technology for Development (IASTED) hosted this conference to provide a forum for international researchers and practitioners interested in all areas of modelling and simulation. The conference featured 12 sessions entitled: (1) automation, control and robotics, (2) hydraulic and hydrologic modelling, (3) applications in processes and design optimization, (4) environmental systems, (5) biomedicine and biomechanics, (6) communications, computers and informatics 1, (7) economics, management and operations research 1, (8) modelling and simulation methodologies 1, (9) economics, management and operations research 2, (10) modelling, optimization, identification and simulation, (11) communications, computers and informatics 2, and, (12) modelling and simulation methodologies 2. Participants took the opportunity to present the latest research, results, and ideas in mathematical modelling; physically-based modelling; agent-based modelling; dynamic modelling; 3-dimensional modelling; computational geometry; time series analysis; finite element methods; discrete event simulation; web-based simulation; Monte Carlo simulation; simulation optimization; simulation uncertainty; fuzzy systems; data modelling; computer aided design; and, visualization. Case studies in engineering design were also presented along with simulation tools and languages. The conference also highlighted topical issues in environmental systems modelling such as air modelling and simulation, atmospheric modelling, hazardous materials, mobile source emissions, ecosystem modelling, hydrological modelling, aquatic ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, biological systems, agricultural modelling, terrain analysis, meteorological modelling, earth system modelling, climatic modelling, and natural resource management. The conference featured 110 presentations, of which 3 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. refs., tabs., figs.

  1. An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

  2. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  3. Benchmark simulation models, quo vadis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeppsson, U; Alex, J; Batstone, D J; Benedetti, L; Comas, J; Copp, J B; Corominas, L; Flores-Alsina, X; Gernaey, K V; Nopens, I; Pons, M-N; Rodríguez-Roda, I; Rosen, C; Steyer, J-P; Vanrolleghem, P A; Volcke, E I P; Vrecko, D

    2013-01-01

    As the work of the IWA Task Group on Benchmarking of Control Strategies for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is coming to an end, it is essential to disseminate the knowledge gained. For this reason, all authors of the IWA Scientific and Technical Report on benchmarking have come together to provide their insights, highlighting areas where knowledge may still be deficient and where new opportunities are emerging, and to propose potential avenues for future development and application of the general benchmarking framework and its associated tools. The paper focuses on the topics of temporal and spatial extension, process modifications within the WWTP, the realism of models, control strategy extensions and the potential for new evaluation tools within the existing benchmark system. We find that there are major opportunities for application within all of these areas, either from existing work already being done within the context of the benchmarking simulation models (BSMs) or applicable work in the wider literature. Of key importance is increasing capability, usability and transparency of the BSM package while avoiding unnecessary complexity.

  4. Simulation modelling of fynbos ecosystems: Systems analysis and conceptual models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kruger, FJ

    1985-03-01

    Full Text Available -animal interactions. An additional two models, which expand aspects of the FYNBOS model, are described: a model for simulating canopy processes; and a Fire Recovery Simulator. The canopy process model will simulate ecophysiological processes in more detail than FYNBOS...

  5. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  6. Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

    2004-08-01

    We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

  7. Process model economics of xanthan production from confectionery industry wastewaters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajić, Bojana Ž; Vučurović, Damjan G; Dodić, Siniša N; Grahovac, Jovana A; Dodić, Jelena M

    2017-12-01

    In this research a process and cost model for a xanthan production facility was developed using process simulation software (SuperPro Designer ® ). This work represents a novelty in the field for two reasons. One is that xanthan gum has been produced from several wastes but never from wastewaters from confectionery industries. The other more important is that the aforementioned software, which in intended exclusively for bioprocesses, is used for generating a base case, i.e. starting point for transferring the technology to industrial scales. Previously acquired experimental knowledge about using confectionery wastewaters from five different factories as substitutes for commercially used cultivation medium have been incorporated into the process model in order to obtain an economic viability of implementing such substrates. A lower initial sugar content in the medium based on wastewater (28.41 g/L) compared to the synthetic medium (30.00 g/L) gave a lower xanthan content at the end of cultivation (23.98 and 26.27 g/L, respectively). Although this resulted in somewhat poorer economic parameters, they were still in the range of being an investment of interest. Also the possibility of utilizing a cheap resource (waste) and reducing pollution that would result from its disposal has a positive effect on the environment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, A.

    2001-03-01

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

  9. Quasi-monte carlo simulation and variance reduction techniques substantially reduce computational requirements of patient-level simulation models: An application to a discrete event simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, M.; Postma, M.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: Patient-level simulation models provide increased flexibility to overcome the limitations of cohort-based approaches in health-economic analysis. However, computational requirements of reaching convergence is a notorious barrier. The objective was to assess the impact of using

  10. An introduction to enterprise modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostic, J.K.; Cannon, C.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology Modeling and Analysis Group

    1996-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to continuously improve productivity, quality, and efficiency of both industry and Department of Energy enterprises, Los Alamos National Laboratory is investigating various manufacturing and business enterprise simulation methods. A number of enterprise simulation software models are being developed to enable engineering analysis of enterprise activities. In this document the authors define the scope of enterprise modeling and simulation efforts, and review recent work in enterprise simulation at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as at other industrial, academic, and research institutions. References of enterprise modeling and simulation methods and a glossary of enterprise-related terms are provided.

  11. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  12. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  13. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  14. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  15. A Mathematical Model of Economic Population Dynamics in a Country That Has Optimal Zakat Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subhan, M.

    2018-04-01

    Zakat is the main tools against two issues in Islamic economy: economic justice and helping the poor. However, no government of Islamic countries can solve the economic disparity today. A mathematical model could give some understanding about this phenomenon. The goal of this research is to obtain a mathematical model that can describe the dynamic of economic group population. The research is theoretical based on relevance references. From the analytical and numerical simulation, we conclude that well-manage zakat and full comitment of the wealthy can achieve wealth equilibrium that represents minimum poverty.

  16. An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zining Yang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at both macro and micro levels. First, a new political capacity measurement is used; and the system dynamics model is validated with the latest data. Second, the endogenous attributes are fused with non-cooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, macro and micro levels are connected with policy levers of political capacity and political instability by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This paper also explores the agent-based model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. This model demonstrates micro level human agency can act, react and interact, thus driving macro level dynamics, while macro structures provide political, social and economic environments that constrain or incentivize micro level human behavior.

  17. Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Coastal cities in China are challenged by multiple growth paths and strategies related to demands in the housing market, economic growth and eco-system protection. This paper examines the effects of conflicting strategies between economic growth and environmental protection on future urban scenarios in Ningbo, China, through logistic-regression-based cellular automata (termed LogCA modeling. The LogCA model is calibrated based on the observed urban patterns in 1990 and 2015, and applied to simulate four future scenarios in 2040, including (a the Norm-scenario, a baseline scenario that maintains the 1990–2015 growth rate; (b the GDP-scenario, a GDP-oriented growth scenario emphasizing the development in city centers and along economic corridors; (c the Slow-scenario, a slow-growth scenario considering the potential downward trend of the housing market in China; and (d the Eco-scenario, a slow-growth scenario emphasizing natural conservation and ecosystem protections. The CA parameters of the Norm- and Slow-scenarios are the same as the calibrated parameters, while the parameters of proximities to economic corridors and natural scenery sites were increased by a factor of 3 for the GDP- and Eco-scenarios, respectively. The Norm- and GDP-scenarios predicted 1950 km2 of new growth for the next 25 years, the Slow-scenario predicted 650 km2, and the Eco-scenario predicted less growth than the Slow-scenario. The locations where the newly built-up area will emerge are significantly different under the four scenarios and the Slow- and Eco-scenarios are preferable to achieve long-term sustainability. The scenarios are not only helpful for exploring sustainable urban development options in China, but also serve as a reference for adjusting the urban planning and land policies.

  18. Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena

    CERN Document Server

    Altiok, Tayfur

    2007-01-01

    Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Arena is a highly readable textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment.” It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings.· Introduces the concept of discrete event Monte Carlo simulation, the most commonly used methodology for modeli...

  19. Characteristics of economic and mathematical simulation of development of working mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorodnichiy, V G

    1979-01-01

    Economic and mathematical simulation is promoted by a standard procedure of computations to optimize development of production for the future as the principal method of solution of a problem. However traditional approaches to design of models need refinement which take into account the dynamic nature of a coal mine. First, the characteristics of the elements in subsystems change; second, as time passes the very structure of the system is transformed. Consequently, these processes should be reflected in the simulation in a corresponding manner. In practical terms this is expressed in the formation of files of forecast information used in computations according to a model and also in development of procedures of transformation of the model structure with a change of the structure of the subject mine with time. Let us note that the invariability of the state of the principal elements of the technological scheme of a mine with time is the necessary condition of acceptability of a model of the evolution type which is most common. For working mines the freedom of selecting solutions is considerably less than the analogous one in design.

  20. Network Modeling and Simulation A Practical Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Guizani, Mohsen; Khan, Bilal

    2010-01-01

    Network Modeling and Simulation is a practical guide to using modeling and simulation to solve real-life problems. The authors give a comprehensive exposition of the core concepts in modeling and simulation, and then systematically address the many practical considerations faced by developers in modeling complex large-scale systems. The authors provide examples from computer and telecommunication networks and use these to illustrate the process of mapping generic simulation concepts to domain-specific problems in different industries and disciplines. Key features: Provides the tools and strate

  1. Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

    OpenAIRE

    Prokhorova, V.

    2010-01-01

    The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

  2. Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2003-01-01

    The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

  3. Modelling and simulation of a heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lei; Deabreu-Garcia, J. Alex; Hartley, Tom T.

    1991-01-01

    Two models for two different control systems are developed for a parallel heat exchanger. First by spatially lumping a heat exchanger model, a good approximate model which has a high system order is produced. Model reduction techniques are applied to these to obtain low order models that are suitable for dynamic analysis and control design. The simulation method is discussed to ensure a valid simulation result.

  4. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  5. Modeling and simulation of large HVDC systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, H.; Sood, V.K.

    1993-01-01

    This paper addresses the complexity and the amount of work in preparing simulation data and in implementing various converter control schemes and the excessive simulation time involved in modelling and simulation of large HVDC systems. The Power Electronic Circuit Analysis program (PECAN) is used to address these problems and a large HVDC system with two dc links is simulated using PECAN. A benchmark HVDC system is studied to compare the simulation results with those from other packages. The simulation time and results are provided in the paper.

  6. Static and dynamic models in economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiullin, N. Z.; Safiullin, B. L.

    2018-05-01

    In this article, the authors consider the impact of information and advertising on consumer behavior and the process of producing differentiation formation. Advertising, television, radio, magazines and direct mail as major constraints of mass media may act as sources of information. Economic modernization is aimed at development of acceleration of the knowledge intensive industries, which contribute to Russia’s position in terms of the world economy; the recovering process of the Russian economic manufacturing base; development of import substitution industries and limited participation in international labor specialization.

  7. Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

  8. Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishchulina E.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

  9. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  10. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  11. Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin

    2015-01-01

    This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

  12. Solar-generated steam for oil recovery: Reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandler, Joel; Fowler, Garrett; Cheng, Kris; Kovscek, Anthony R.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Integrated assessment of solar thermal enhanced oil recovery (TEOR). • Analyses of reservoir performance, economics, and life cycle factors. • High solar fraction scenarios show economic viability for TEOR. • Continuous variable-rate steam injection meets the benchmarks set by conventional steam flood. - Abstract: The viability of solar thermal steam generation for thermal enhanced oil recovery (TEOR) in heavy-oil sands was evaluated using San Joaquin Valley, CA data. The effectiveness of solar TEOR was quantified through reservoir simulation, economic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. Reservoir simulations with continuous but variable rate steam injection were compared with a base-case Tulare Sand steamflood project. For equivalent average injection rates, comparable breakthrough times and recovery factors of 65% of the original oil in place were predicted, in agreement with simulations in the literature. Daily cyclic fluctuations in steam injection rate do not greatly impact recovery. Oil production rates do, however, show seasonal variation. Economic viability was established using historical prices and injection/production volumes from the Kern River oil field. For comparison, this model assumes that present day steam generation technologies were implemented at TEOR startup in 1980. All natural gas cogeneration and 100% solar fraction scenarios had the largest and nearly equal net present values (NPV) of $12.54 B and $12.55 B, respectively. Solar fraction refers to the steam provided by solar steam generation. Given its large capital cost, the 100% solar case shows the greatest sensitivity to discount rate and no sensitivity to natural gas price. Because there are very little emissions associated with day-to-day operations from the solar thermal system, life-cycle emissions are significantly lower than conventional systems even when the embodied energy of the structure is considered. We estimate that less than 1 g of CO 2 /MJ of refined

  13. Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, O.

    1993-01-01

    Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

  14. Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae MOROIANU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

  15. A simulation of the economic impact of renewable energy development in Morocco

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arce, Rafael de; Mahía, Ramón; Medina, Eva; Escribano, Gonzalo

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we identify the renewable energy source (RES) demand scenarios for Morocco, the needs of RES installed capacity according to those scenarios and the detailed investment plans needed to achieve such installed capacity supply. Then, using a dynamic variant input–output model, we simulate the macroeconomic impact of the foreign investment inflows needed to make available these Moroccan RES generation capacity plans in the medium and long term. The use of concentrated solar plants, photovoltaic generation and wind power farms are considered and compared in the simulation. - Highlights: ► An evaluation of RES economic impact in Morocco from 2010 to 2040 is simulated. ► Different scenarios about import dependency and energy exports have been considered. ► The impact on GDP range from 1.21% to 1.99%. ► The impact on employment range from 269 to 499 thousand jobs. ► The alternative that produces most benefits would be the installation of windmills.

  16. On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Hand, Michael S. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM)

    2005-04-01

    Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economic principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.

  17. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  18. Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghezzi, L.; Balestrero, A.

    2010-01-01

    Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs is an attempt to improve the physical understanding, mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the electric arcs that are found during current interruptions in low voltage circuit breakers. An empirical description is gained by refined electrical

  19. Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

  20. Soil and deforestation use standards in Amazon and its global impacts: a regional dynamics economic and ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sherrill, Elisabeth I.

    1999-01-01

    The aim of the work was to introduce a simulation model to analyze the deforestation causes in Amazon. The work describes the basic parameters and fundamental concepts to the performed modeling comprehension. The several agents soil utilization standards were going observed and the economic and ecological interactions simulated. The global impact aspects are also analyzed

  1. Model improvements to simulate charging in SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arat, K. T.; Klimpel, T.; Hagen, C. W.

    2018-03-01

    Charging of insulators is a complex phenomenon to simulate since the accuracy of the simulations is very sensitive to the interaction of electrons with matter and electric fields. In this study, we report model improvements for a previously developed Monte-Carlo simulator to more accurately simulate samples that charge. The improvements include both modelling of low energy electron scattering and charging of insulators. The new first-principle scattering models provide a more realistic charge distribution cloud in the material, and a better match between non-charging simulations and experimental results. Improvements on charging models mainly focus on redistribution of the charge carriers in the material with an induced conductivity (EBIC) and a breakdown model, leading to a smoother distribution of the charges. Combined with a more accurate tracing of low energy electrons in the electric field, we managed to reproduce the dynamically changing charging contrast due to an induced positive surface potential.

  2. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality

  3. Fuel modelling and its economical competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, A.C.; Savino, E.J.

    1996-01-01

    Due to reasons of economical competitiveness, there is at present a strong need in the nuclear industry to improve fuel performance under more demanding operating conditions, such as those resulting from an extended burnup. This requires a good understanding of the properties of fuel rod materials and their in-service performance. As it can be easily foreseen, thermal, mechanical and microstructural irradiation effects are strongly interrelated while the fuel is at reactor operating conditions. (author). 7 refs., 16 figs

  4. Milk quality assurance for paratuberculosis: simulation of within-herd infection dynamics and economicsof within-herd infection dynamics and economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, M.F.; Nielen, M.; Velthuis, A.G.J.; Roermund, van H.J.W.

    2008-01-01

    bulk milk quality assurance programme for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) in dairy herds was simulated with a stochastic simulation model (JohneSSim). The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiological and economic effects of preventive management measures and various test

  5. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  6. Controlling highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks : An epidemiological and economic model analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Backer, J. A.; van Roermund, H. J W; Fischer, Egil; van Asseldonk, M. A P M; Bergevoet, R. H M

    2015-01-01

    Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) can cause large losses for the poultry sector and for animal disease controlling authorities, as well as risks for animal and human welfare. In the current simulation approach epidemiological and economic models are combined to compare different

  7. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  8. Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharip, R M; Abu Zarim, M A U A

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios

  9. Diversity modelling for electrical power system simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharip, R. M.; Abu Zarim, M. A. U. A.

    2013-12-01

    This paper considers diversity of generation and demand profiles against the different future energy scenarios and evaluates these on a technical basis. Compared to previous studies, this research applied a forecasting concept based on possible growth rates from publically electrical distribution scenarios concerning the UK. These scenarios were created by different bodies considering aspects such as environment, policy, regulation, economic and technical. In line with these scenarios, forecasting is on a long term timescale (up to every ten years from 2020 until 2050) in order to create a possible output of generation mix and demand profiles to be used as an appropriate boundary condition for the network simulation. The network considered is a segment of rural LV populated with a mixture of different housing types. The profiles for the 'future' energy and demand have been successfully modelled by applying a forecasting method. The network results under these profiles shows for the cases studied that even though the value of the power produced from each Micro-generation is often in line with the demand requirements of an individual dwelling there will be no problems arising from high penetration of Micro-generation and demand side management for each dwellings considered. The results obtained highlight the technical issues/changes for energy delivery and management to rural customers under the future energy scenarios.

  10. Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

  11. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

    2017-01-01

    While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

  12. Whole-building Hygrothermal Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2003-01-01

    An existing integrated simulation tool for dynamic thermal simulation of building was extended with a transient model for moisture release and uptake in building materials. Validation of the new model was begun with comparison against measurements in an outdoor test cell furnished with single...... materials. Almost quasi-steady, cyclic experiments were used to compare the indoor humidity variation and the numerical results of the integrated simulation tool with the new moisture model. Except for the case with chipboard as furnishing, the predictions of indoor humidity with the detailed model were...

  13. Implementing economic evaluation in simulation-based medical education: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yiqun; Cheng, Adam; Hecker, Kent; Grant, Vincent; Currie, Gillian R

    2018-02-01

    Simulation-based medical education (SBME) is now ubiquitous at all levels of medical training. Given the substantial resources needed for SBME, economic evaluation of simulation-based programmes or curricula is required to demonstrate whether improvement in trainee performance (knowledge, skills and attitudes) and health outcomes justifies the cost of investment. Current literature evaluating SBME fails to provide consistent and interpretable information on the relative costs and benefits of alternatives. Economic evaluation is widely applied in health care, but is relatively scarce in medical education. Therefore, in this paper, using a focus on SBME, we define economic evaluation, describe the key components, and discuss the challenges associated with conducting an economic evaluation of medical education interventions. As a way forward to the rigorous and state of the art application of economic evaluation in medical education, we outline the steps to gather the necessary information to conduct an economic evaluation of simulation-based education programmes and curricula, and describe the main approaches to conducting an economic evaluation. A properly conducted economic evaluation can help stakeholders (i.e., programme directors, policy makers and curriculum designers) to determine the optimal use of resources in selecting the modality or method of assessment in simulation. It also helps inform broader decision making about allocation of scarce resources within an educational programme, as well as between education and clinical care. Economic evaluation in medical education research is still in its infancy, and there is significant potential for state-of-the-art application of these methods in this area. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

  14. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  15. Simulation modeling for the health care manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Michael H

    2009-01-01

    This article addresses the use of simulation software to solve administrative problems faced by health care managers. Spreadsheet add-ins, process simulation software, and discrete event simulation software are available at a range of costs and complexity. All use the Monte Carlo method to realistically integrate probability distributions into models of the health care environment. Problems typically addressed by health care simulation modeling are facility planning, resource allocation, staffing, patient flow and wait time, routing and transportation, supply chain management, and process improvement.

  16. Protein Simulation Data in the Relational Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simms, Andrew M; Daggett, Valerie

    2012-10-01

    High performance computing is leading to unprecedented volumes of data. Relational databases offer a robust and scalable model for storing and analyzing scientific data. However, these features do not come without a cost-significant design effort is required to build a functional and efficient repository. Modeling protein simulation data in a relational database presents several challenges: the data captured from individual simulations are large, multi-dimensional, and must integrate with both simulation software and external data sites. Here we present the dimensional design and relational implementation of a comprehensive data warehouse for storing and analyzing molecular dynamics simulations using SQL Server.

  17. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  18. Modeling and simulation of blood collection systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, Edgar; Xie, Xiaolan; Augusto, Vincent; Garraud, Olivier

    2012-03-01

    This paper addresses the modeling and simulation of blood collection systems in France for both fixed site and mobile blood collection with walk in whole blood donors and scheduled plasma and platelet donors. Petri net models are first proposed to precisely describe different blood collection processes, donor behaviors, their material/human resource requirements and relevant regulations. Petri net models are then enriched with quantitative modeling of donor arrivals, donor behaviors, activity times and resource capacity. Relevant performance indicators are defined. The resulting simulation models can be straightforwardly implemented with any simulation language. Numerical experiments are performed to show how the simulation models can be used to select, for different walk in donor arrival patterns, appropriate human resource planning and donor appointment strategies.

  19. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

  20. Modeling and Simulation of Matrix Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Fu-rong; Klumpner, Christian; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses the modeling and simulation of matrix converter. Two models of matrix converter are presented: one is based on indirect space vector modulation and the other is based on power balance equation. The basis of these two models is• given and the process on modeling is introduced...

  1. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  2. Modeling and simulation of emergent behavior in transportation infrastructure restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojha, Akhilesh; Corns, Steven; Shoberg, Thomas G.; Qin, Ruwen; Long, Suzanna K.

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this chapter is to create a methodology to model the emergent behavior during a disruption in the transportation system and that calculates economic losses due to such a disruption, and to understand how an extreme event affects the road transportation network. The chapter discusses a system dynamics approach which is used to model the transportation road infrastructure system to evaluate the different factors that render road segments inoperable and calculate economic consequences of such inoperability. System dynamics models have been integrated with business process simulation model to evaluate, design, and optimize the business process. The chapter also explains how different factors affect the road capacity. After identifying the various factors affecting the available road capacity, a causal loop diagram (CLD) is created to visually represent the causes leading to a change in the available road capacity and the effects on travel costs when the available road capacity changes.

  3. Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. S. N. Perera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

  4. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  5. Towards low carbon business park energy systems: Classification of techno-economic energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmerman, Jonas; Vandevelde, Lieven; Van Eetvelde, Greet

    2014-01-01

    To mitigate climate destabilisation, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be curbed. A major share of these emissions originates from the industry and energy sectors. Hence, a low carbon shift in industrial and business park energy systems is called for. Low carbon business parks minimise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by maximal exploitation of local renewable energy production, enhanced energy efficiency, and inter-firm heat exchange, combined in a collective energy system. The holistic approach of techno-economic energy models facilitates the design of such systems, while yielding an optimal trade-off between energetic, economic and environmental performances. However, no models custom-tailored for industrial park energy systems are detected in literature. In this paper, existing energy model classifications are scanned for adequate model characteristics and accordingly, a confined number of models are selected and described. Subsequently, a practical typology is proposed, existing of energy system evolution, optimisation, simulation, accounting and integration models, and key model features are compared. Finally, important features for a business park energy model are identified. - Highlights: • A holistic perspective on (low carbon) business park energy systems is introduced. • A new categorisation of techno-economic energy models is proposed. • Model characteristics are described per model category. • Essential model features for business park energy system modelling are identified. • A strategy towards a techno-economic energy model for business parks is proposed

  6. Simulation models for tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimits, A.M.; Cohen, B.I.

    1992-01-01

    Two developments in the nonlinear simulation of tokamak plasmas are described: (A) Simulation algorithms that use quasiballooning coordinates have been implemented in a 3D fluid code and a 3D partially linearized (Δf) particle code. In quasiballooning coordinates, one of the coordinate directions is closely aligned with that of the magnetic field, allowing both optimal use of the grid resolution for structures highly elongated along the magnetic field as well as implementation of the correct periodicity conditions with no discontinuities in the toroidal direction. (B) Progress on the implementation of a likeparticle collision operator suitable for use in partially linearized particle codes is reported. The binary collision approach is shown to be unusable for this purpose. The algorithm under development is a complete version of the test-particle plus source-field approach that was suggested and partially implemented by Xu and Rosenbluth

  7. A Discrete Heterogeneous-Group Economic Growth Model with Endogenous Leisure Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a one-sector multigroup growth model with endogenous labor supply in discrete time. Proposing an alternative approach to behavior of households, we examine the dynamics of wealth and income distribution in a competitive economy with capital accumulation as the main engine of economic growth. We show how human capital levels, preferences, and labor force of heterogeneous households determine the national economic growth, wealth, and income distribution and time allocation of the groups. By simulation we demonstrate, for instance, that in the three-group economy when the rich group's human capital is improved, all the groups will economically benefit, and the leisure times of all the groups are reduced but when any other group's human capital is improved, the group will economically benefit, the other two groups economically lose, and the leisure times of all the groups are increased.

  8. Economic perspective of marine reserves in fisheries: a bioeconomic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Kunal; Kar, T K

    2012-12-01

    The present paper describes a prey-predator type fishery model with prey dispersal in a two-patch environment, one of which is a free fishing zone and other is protected zone. The objective of the paper is to maximize the net economic revenue earn from the fishery through implementing the sustainable properties of the fishery to keep the ecological balance. Biological measures are introduced to increase the understanding of the mechanisms in the bioeconomic system. The importance of marine reserve is analyzed through the obtained results of the numerical simulations of proposed model system. The results depict that reserves will be most effective when coupled with harvesting controls in adjacent fisheries. The paper also incorporates the induced cost and premium from establishing a marine protected area in a fishery. It is found that premium of marine protected area (MPA) increases with the increasing size of the reserve. Results are analyzed with the help of graphical illustrations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-09-01

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Multiple Regression and Mediator Variables can be used to Avoid Double Counting when Economic Values are Derived using Stochastic Herd Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Søren; Ettema, Jehan Frans; Hjortø, Line

    Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent v...... in multiparous cows. The merit of using this approach was demonstrated since the economic value of metritis was estimated to be 81% higher when no mediator variables were included in the multiple regression analysis......Multiple regression and model building with mediator variables was addressed to avoid double counting when economic values are estimated from data simulated with herd simulation modeling (using the SimHerd model). The simulated incidence of metritis was analyzed statistically as the independent...... variable, while using the traits representing the direct effects of metritis on yield, fertility and occurrence of other diseases as mediator variables. The economic value of metritis was estimated to be €78 per 100 cow-years for each 1% increase of metritis in the period of 1-100 days in milk...

  11. Modeling economic growth fuelled by science and technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Costa Ribeiro

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper suggests a simulation model to investigate how science and technology fuel economic growth. This model is built upon a synthesis of technological capabilities represented by national innovation systems. This paper gathers data of papers and patents for 183 countries between 1999 and 2003, as well as GDP and population for 2003. These data show a strong correlation between science, technology and income. Three simulation exercises are performed. Feeding our algorithm with data for population, patents and scientific papers, we obtain the world income distribution. These results support our conjecture on the role of science and technology as sources of the wealth of nations.Este artigo propõe um modelo de simulação para investigar a contribuição da ciência e da tecnologia para o crescimento econômico. O ponto de partida são os sistemas nacionais de inovação, um conceito que sintetiza a capacitação tecnológica das nações. Desta forma, o modelo pode preservar simplicidade e parcimônia. Os dados coletados (patentes, artigos e PIB e população, para 183 países indicam uma forte correlação entre ciência, tecnologia e renda. Três exercícios com simulações são realizados para diversos momentos do tempo, mostrando a progressiva aderência do modelo a essas variáveis tecnológicas.

  12. A model management system for combat simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Dolk, Daniel R.

    1986-01-01

    The design and implementation of a model management system to support combat modeling is discussed. Structured modeling is introduced as a formalism for representing mathematical models. A relational information resource dictionary system is developed which can accommodate structured models. An implementation is described. Structured modeling is then compared to Jackson System Development (JSD) as a methodology for facilitating discrete event simulation. JSD is currently better at representin...

  13. HVDC System Characteristics and Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, S.I.; Han, B.M.; Jang, G.S. [Electric Enginnering and Science Research Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-07-01

    This report deals with the AC-DC power system simulation method by PSS/E and EUROSTAG for the development of a strategy for the reliable operation of the Cheju-Haenam interconnected system. The simulation using both programs is performed to analyze HVDC simulation models. In addition, the control characteristics of the Cheju-Haenam HVDC system as well as Cheju AC system characteristics are described in this work. (author). 104 figs., 8 tabs.

  14. Physically realistic modeling of maritime training simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Cieutat , Jean-Marc

    2003-01-01

    Maritime training simulation is an important matter of maritime teaching, which requires a lot of scientific and technical skills.In this framework, where the real time constraint has to be maintained, all physical phenomena cannot be studied; the most visual physical phenomena relating to the natural elements and the ship behaviour are reproduced only. Our swell model, based on a surface wave simulation approach, permits to simulate the shape and the propagation of a regular train of waves f...

  15. Software-Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C. Y.; Abdel-Hamid, T.; Sherif, J. S.

    1992-01-01

    The Software Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model is described which was developed at JPL. SEPS is a dynamic simulation model of the software project development process. It uses the feedback principles of system dynamics to simulate the dynamic interactions among various software life cycle development activities and management decision making processes. The model is designed to be a planning tool to examine tradeoffs of cost, schedule, and functionality, and to test the implications of different managerial policies on a project's outcome. Furthermore, SEPS will enable software managers to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of software project development and perform postmodern assessments.

  16. Systematic modelling and simulation of refrigeration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1998-01-01

    The task of developing a simulation model of a refrigeration system can be very difficult and time consuming. In order for this process to be effective, a systematic method for developing the system model is required. This method should aim at guiding the developer to clarify the purpose...... of the simulation, to select appropriate component models and to set up the equations in a well-arranged way. In this paper the outline of such a method is proposed and examples showing the use of this method for simulation of refrigeration systems are given....

  17. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

  18. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  19. Deriving simulators for hybrid Chi models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van D.A.; Man, K.L.; Reniers, M.A.; Rooda, J.E.; Schiffelers, R.R.H.

    2006-01-01

    The hybrid Chi language is formalism for modeling, simulation and verification of hybrid systems. The formal semantics of hybrid Chi allows the definition of provably correct implementations for simulation, verification and realtime control. This paper discusses the principles of deriving an

  20. Modeling and simulation for RF system design

    CERN Document Server

    Frevert, Ronny; Jancke, Roland; Knöchel, Uwe; Schwarz, Peter; Kakerow, Ralf; Darianian, Mohsen

    2005-01-01

    Focusing on RF specific modeling and simulation methods, and system and circuit level descriptions, this work contains application-oriented training material. Accompanied by a CD- ROM, it combines the presentation of a mixed-signal design flow, an introduction into VHDL-AMS and Verilog-A, and the application of commercially available simulators.

  1. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  2. Magnetosphere Modeling: From Cartoons to Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombosi, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last half a century physics-based global computer simulations became a bridge between experiment and basic theory and now it represents the "third pillar" of geospace research. Today, many of our scientific publications utilize large-scale simulations to interpret observations, test new ideas, plan campaigns, or design new instruments. Realistic simulations of the complex Sun-Earth system have been made possible by the dramatically increased power of both computing hardware and numerical algorithms. Early magnetosphere models were based on simple E&M concepts (like the Chapman-Ferraro cavity) and hydrodynamic analogies (bow shock). At the beginning of the space age current system models were developed culminating in the sophisticated Tsyganenko-type description of the magnetic configuration. The first 3D MHD simulations of the magnetosphere were published in the early 1980s. A decade later there were several competing global models that were able to reproduce many fundamental properties of the magnetosphere. The leading models included the impact of the ionosphere by using a height-integrated electric potential description. Dynamic coupling of global and regional models started in the early 2000s by integrating a ring current and a global magnetosphere model. It has been recognized for quite some time that plasma kinetic effects play an important role. Presently, global hybrid simulations of the dynamic magnetosphere are expected to be possible on exascale supercomputers, while fully kinetic simulations with realistic mass ratios are still decades away. In the 2010s several groups started to experiment with PIC simulations embedded in large-scale 3D MHD models. Presently this integrated MHD-PIC approach is at the forefront of magnetosphere simulations and this technique is expected to lead to some important advances in our understanding of magnetosheric physics. This talk will review the evolution of magnetosphere modeling from cartoons to current systems

  3. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  4. Polygeneration system based on PEMFC, CPVT and electrolyzer: Dynamic simulation and energetic and economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calise, Francesco; Figaj, Rafal Damian; Massarotti, Nicola; Mauro, Alessandro; Vanoli, Laura

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel polygeneration system is presented. • System includes CPVT collectors, PEM fuel cell, absorption chiller and electrolyzer. • The system provides heating/cooling, domestic hot water, electricity, hydrogen and oxygen. • The system simple payback period is 12.5 years, 5.8 years in case of incentive. • The optimal fuel cell nominal power results 100 kW. - Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic simulation model and an energetic and economic analysis of novel polygeneration system. The system integrates: cogenerative Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC), Concentrated PhotoVoltaic-Thermal (CPVT) collectors, alkaline electrolyzer and single-stage LiBr/H_2O absorption chiller. The plant is designed to supply electrical energy, space heating or cooling and domestic hot water for a small university building. The system produces hydrogen and oxygen, the first one is stored and then it is supplied to the fuel cell, while the second one is sold. The electrolyzer system is powered only by the CPVT collectors, only a small amount of the solar electrical energy is available to the user. Such electric energy along with the one produced by the PEM fuel cell are used by the user and/or supplied to the grid. The system is designed and dynamically simulated using TRNSYS software package. This study is based on a model previously developed by the authors. In particular, the system was modified in order to implement the new components (CPVT, alkaline electrolyzer, hydrogen and oxygen system) in this work. Special attention is paid to the control strategy of the proposed system in order to achieve the optimal system configuration. Daily, weekly and yearly results carried out with the dynamic simulation are presented. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to determine the system performance as a function of the main design parameters. The energetic and economic analysis shows that the system can ensure significant energy savings and it

  5. The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poursina, B.

    1998-08-01

    Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  6. NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND MODELING OF UNSTEADY FLOW ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-30

    Jun 30, 2014 ... objective of this study is to control the simulation of unsteady flows around structures. ... Aerospace, our results were in good agreement with experimental .... Two-Equation Eddy-Viscosity Turbulence Models for Engineering.

  7. SEIR model simulation for Hepatitis B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Side, Syafruddin; Irwan, Mulbar, Usman; Sanusi, Wahidah

    2017-09-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation for Hepatitis B discuss in this paper. Population devided by four variables, namely: Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR). Several factors affect the population in this model is vaccination, immigration and emigration that occurred in the population. SEIR Model obtained Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) non-linear System 4-D which then reduces to 3-D. SEIR model simulation undertaken to predict the number of Hepatitis B cases. The results of the simulation indicates the number of Hepatitis B cases will increase and then decrease for several months. The result of simulation using the number of case in Makassar also found the basic reproduction number less than one, that means, Makassar city is not an endemic area of Hepatitis B.

  8. Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Bartter, W.D.; Wolf, J.J.; Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

    1984-01-01

    A stochastic computer model for simulating the actions and behavior of nuclear power plant maintenance personnel is described. The model considers personnel, environmental, and motivational variables to yield predictions of maintenance performance quality and time to perform. The mode has been fully developed and sensitivity tested. Additional evaluation of the model is now taking place

  9. Computer simulations of the random barrier model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Thomas; Dyre, Jeppe

    2002-01-01

    A brief review of experimental facts regarding ac electronic and ionic conduction in disordered solids is given followed by a discussion of what is perhaps the simplest realistic model, the random barrier model (symmetric hopping model). Results from large scale computer simulations are presented...

  10. Turbine modelling for real time simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira Barroso, A.C. de; Araujo Filho, F. de

    1992-01-01

    A model for vapor turbines and its peripherals has been developed. All the important variables have been included and emphasis has been given for the computational efficiency to obtain a model able to simulate all the modeled equipment. (A.C.A.S.)

  11. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  12. Modeling and simulation with operator scaling

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Serge; Meerschaert, Mark M.; Rosiński, Jan

    2010-01-01

    Self-similar processes are useful in modeling diverse phenomena that exhibit scaling properties. Operator scaling allows a different scale factor in each coordinate. This paper develops practical methods for modeling and simulating stochastic processes with operator scaling. A simulation method for operator stable Levy processes is developed, based on a series representation, along with a Gaussian approximation of the small jumps. Several examples are given to illustrate practical application...

  13. Modelling the economic impact of three lameness causing diseases using herd and cow level evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Østergaard, Søren; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2010-01-01

    Diseases to the cow's hoof, interdigital skin and legs are highly prevalent and of large economic impact in modern dairy farming. In order to support farmer's decisions on preventing and treating lameness and its underlying causes, decision support models can be used to predict the economic...... horn diseases. Secondly, the existing simulation model was set-up inwaythat it uses hyper-distributions describing diseases risk of the three lameness causing diseases. By combining information on herd level risk factors with prevalence of lameness or prevalence of underlying diseases among cows...

  14. Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

    OpenAIRE

    Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

  15. Modeling of magnetic particle suspensions for simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Satoh, Akira

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the book is to highlight the modeling of magnetic particles with different shapes and magnetic properties, to provide graduate students and young researchers information on the theoretical aspects and actual techniques for the treatment of magnetic particles in particle-based simulations. In simulation, we focus on the Monte Carlo, molecular dynamics, Brownian dynamics, lattice Boltzmann and stochastic rotation dynamics (multi-particle collision dynamics) methods. The latter two simulation methods can simulate both the particle motion and the ambient flow field simultaneously. In general, specialized knowledge can only be obtained in an effective manner under the supervision of an expert. The present book is written to play such a role for readers who wish to develop the skill of modeling magnetic particles and develop a computer simulation program using their own ability. This book is therefore a self-learning book for graduate students and young researchers. Armed with this knowledge,...

  16. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  17. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first-passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on slender members of offshore structures is described. The wave elevation of the sea state is modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  18. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1985-01-01

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  19. Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Byoung Kyu

    2013-01-01

    Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

  20. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  1. Los modelos de simulación de eventos discretos en la evaluación económica de tecnologías y productos sanitarios Discrete-event simulation models in the economic evaluation of health technologies and health products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Manuel Rodríguez Barrios

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available El uso de modelos matemáticos como instrumentos de evaluación de alternativas está teniendo una importancia cada vez mayor en el terreno de la evaluación económica de servicios y tecnologías sanitarias, con un papel cada vez más relevante como ayuda en la toma de decisiones en la gestión sanitaria. Hasta ahora se han usado fundamentalmente 2 tipos de modelos, en parte en función de la enfermedad estudiada. De esta forma, los árboles de decisión han sido muy utilizados para las enfermedades de carácter agudo y los modelos de Markov han sido usados en enfermedades crónicas o que presentan estados de salud recurrentes. Sin embargo, tanto unos como otros presentan importantes limitaciones a la hora de modelar de forma realista ciertos procesos o enfermedades, y por ello está creciendo el interés y el uso de los modelos de simulación de eventos discretos. El objetivo del presente artículo es describir las principales características que presentan los modelos de simulación de eventos discretos, describir las últimas novedades, así como presentar qué ventajas aportan con respecto a los otros tipos de modelos en economía de la salud y, especialmente, en la evaluación económica de tecnologías y productos sanitarios.The use of mathematical models to assess therapeutic alternatives is increasing in the economic evaluation of health technologies and services and these models are becoming an increasingly important aid to decision making in health care. Until now, 2 types of model have been used, depending to some extent on the disease to be studied: decision trees have been used for acute diseases and Markov models in chronic or recurrent diseases. However, both models present major limitations when addressing complex processes or diseases. Consequently, interest in, and the use of, discrete-event simulation is growing. The present article aims to describe the main characteristics of discrete-event simulation, the state of the art

  2. Applicability of genetic algorithms to parameter estimation of economic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcel Ševela

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper concentrates on capability of genetic algorithms for parameter estimation of non-linear economic models. In the paper we test the ability of genetic algorithms to estimate of parameters of demand function for durable goods and simultaneously search for parameters of genetic algorithm that lead to maximum effectiveness of the computation algorithm. The genetic algorithms connect deterministic iterative computation methods with stochastic methods. In the genteic aůgorithm approach each possible solution is represented by one individual, those life and lifes of all generations of individuals run under a few parameter of genetic algorithm. Our simulations resulted in optimal mutation rate of 15% of all bits in chromosomes, optimal elitism rate 20%. We can not set the optimal extend of generation, because it proves positive correlation with effectiveness of genetic algorithm in all range under research, but its impact is degreasing. The used genetic algorithm was sensitive to mutation rate at most, than to extend of generation. The sensitivity to elitism rate is not so strong.

  3. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  4. Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

    2017-01-01

    Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

  5. Confronting the Economic Model with the Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2006-01-01

    methods. When this is not the case, but likelihood methods are applied nonetheless, the result is incorrect inference. In his paper we illustrate the problem of possible incorrect inference with a recent application of a DSGE model to US data (Ireland, 2004). Specifically, this paper discusses two broad...

  6. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  7. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING INNOVATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.V. Makarov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents one of the mathematical tools for modeling innovation processes. With the help of Kondratieff long waves can define innovation cycles. However, complexity of the innovation system implies a qualitative description. The article describes the problems of this area of research.

  8. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  9. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  10. On purpose simulation model for molten salt CSP parabolic trough

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caranese, Carlo; Matino, Francesca; Maccari, Augusto

    2017-06-01

    The utilization of computer codes and simulation software is one of the fundamental aspects for the development of any kind of technology and, in particular, in CSP sector for researchers, energy institutions, EPC and others stakeholders. In that extent, several models for the simulation of CSP plant have been developed with different main objectives (dynamic simulation, productivity analysis, techno economic optimization, etc.), each of which has shown its own validity and suitability. Some of those models have been designed to study several plant configurations taking into account different CSP plant technologies (Parabolic trough, Linear Fresnel, Solar Tower or Dish) and different settings for the heat transfer fluid, the thermal storage systems and for the overall plant operating logic. Due to a lack of direct experience of Molten Salt Parabolic Trough (MSPT) commercial plant operation, most of the simulation tools do not foresee a suitable management of the thermal energy storage logic and of the solar field freeze protection system, but follow standard schemes. ASSALT, Ase Software for SALT csp plants, has been developed to improve MSPT plant's simulations, by exploiting the most correct operational strategies in order to provide more accurate technical and economical results. In particular, ASSALT applies MSPT specific control logics for the electric energy production and delivery strategy as well as the operation modes of the Solar Field in off-normal sunshine condition. With this approach, the estimated plant efficiency is increased and the electricity consumptions required for the plant operation and management is drastically reduced. Here we present a first comparative study on a real case 55 MWe Molten Salt Parabolic Trough CSP plant placed in the Tibetan highlands, using ASSALT and SAM (System Advisor Model), which is a commercially available simulation tool.

  11. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    GENERAL I ARTICLE. Computer Based ... universities, and later did system analysis, ... sonal computers (PC) and low cost software packages and tools. They can serve as useful learning experience through student projects. Models are .... Let us consider a numerical example: to calculate the velocity of a trainer aircraft ...

  12. Thermal unit availability modeling in a regional simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamayee, Z.A.; Port, J.; Robinett, W.

    1983-01-01

    The System Analysis Model (SAM) developed under the umbrella of PNUCC's System Analysis Committee is capable of simulating the operation of a given load/resource scenario. This model employs a Monte-Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainties. Among uncertainties modeled is thermal unit availability both for energy simulation (seasonal) and capacity simulations (hourly). This paper presents the availability modeling in the capacity and energy models. The use of regional and national data in deriving the two availability models, the interaction between the two and modifications made to the capacity model in order to reflect regional practices is presented. A sample problem is presented to show the modification process. Results for modeling a nuclear unit using NERC-GADS is presented

  13. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  14. CFES--California Fire Economics Simulator: A Computerized System for Wildland Fire Protection Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy S. Fried; J. Keith Gilless; Robert E. Martin

    1987-01-01

    The University of California's Department of Forestry and Resource Management, under contract with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, has developed and released the first version of the California Fire Economics Simulator (CFES). The current release is adapted from the Initial Action Assessment component of the USFS's National Fire...

  15. Methodological approach to simulation and choice of ecologically efficient and energetically economic wind turbines (WT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bespalov, Vadim; Udina, Natalya; Samarskaya, Natalya

    2017-10-01

    Use of wind energy is related to one of the prospective directions among renewed energy sources. A methodological approach is reviewed in the article to simulation and choice of ecologically efficient and energetically economic wind turbines on the designing stage taking into account characteristics of natural-territorial complex and peculiarities of anthropogenic load in the territory of WT location.

  16. A virtual laboratory notebook for simulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winfield, A J

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we describe how we have adopted the laboratory notebook as a metaphor for interacting with computer simulation models. This 'virtual' notebook stores the simulation output and meta-data (which is used to record the scientist's interactions with the simulation). The meta-data stored consists of annotations (equivalent to marginal notes in a laboratory notebook), a history tree and a log of user interactions. The history tree structure records when in 'simulation' time, and from what starting point in the tree changes are made to the parameters by the user. Typically these changes define a new run of the simulation model (which is represented as a new branch of the history tree). The tree shows the structure of the changes made to the simulation and the log is required to keep the order in which the changes occurred. Together they form a record which you would normally find in a laboratory notebook. The history tree is plotted in simulation parameter space. This shows the scientist's interactions with the simulation visually and allows direct manipulation of the parameter information presented, which in turn is used to control directly the state of the simulation. The interactions with the system are graphical and usually involve directly selecting or dragging data markers and other graphical control devices around in parameter space. If the graphical manipulators do not provide precise enough control then textual manipulation is still available which allows numerical values to be entered by hand. The Virtual Laboratory Notebook, by providing interesting interactions with the visual view of the history tree, provides a mechanism for giving the user complex and novel ways of interacting with biological computer simulation models.

  17. Bridging experiments, models and simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carusi, Annamaria; Burrage, Kevin; Rodríguez, Blanca

    2012-01-01

    Computational models in physiology often integrate functional and structural information from a large range of spatiotemporal scales from the ionic to the whole organ level. Their sophistication raises both expectations and skepticism concerning how computational methods can improve our...... understanding of living organisms and also how they can reduce, replace, and refine animal experiments. A fundamental requirement to fulfill these expectations and achieve the full potential of computational physiology is a clear understanding of what models represent and how they can be validated. The present...... that contributes to defining the specific aspects of cardiac electrophysiology the MSE system targets, rather than being only an external test, and that this is driven by advances in experimental and computational methods and the combination of both....

  18. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

  19. Economic Optimization of Spray Dryer Operation using Nonlinear Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Norbert; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we investigate an economically optimizing Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (E-NMPC) for a spray drying process. By simulation we evaluate the economic potential of this E-NMPC compared to a conventional PID based control strategy. Spray drying is the preferred process to reduce...... the water content for many liquid foodstuffs and produces a free flowing powder. The main challenge in controlling the spray drying process is to meet the residual moisture specifications and avoid that the powder sticks to the chamber walls of the spray dryer. We present a model for a spray dryer that has...... been validated on experimental data from a pilot plant. We use this model for simulation as well as for prediction in the E-NMPC. The E-NMPC is designed with hard input constraints and soft output constraints. The open-loop optimal control problem in the E-NMPC is solved using the single...

  20. Economic Optimization of Spray Dryer Operation using Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with State Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Norbert; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Rawlings, James B.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an economically optimizing Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (E-NMPC) for a complete spray drying plant with multiple stages. In the E-NMPC the initial state is estimated by an extended Kalman Filter (EKF) with noise covariances estimated by an autocovariance least...... squares method (ALS). We present a model for the spray drying plant and use this model for simulation as well as for prediction in the E-NMPC. The open-loop optimal control problem in the E-NMPC is solved using the single-shooting method combined with a quasi-Newton Sequential Quadratic programming (SQP......) algorithm and the adjoint method for computation of gradients. We evaluate the economic performance when unmeasured disturbances are present. By simulation, we demonstrate that the E-NMPC improves the profit of spray drying by 17% compared to conventional PI control....

  1. Migration modelling in the New Economic Geography

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho Pérez, Maria del Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The benchmark of this paper is the Fujita and Thisse (2002) core-periphery model, which adds a R&D sector with skilled labor to create new varieties for the modern sector. The number of R&D firms increases not only with the number of existing patents and knowledge spillovers but also with the number of skilled workers who can migrate and choose theregion offering the better lifetime salary.The main objective of the present work is to analyse the long-term consequences of the choice of the mig...

  2. Strategies simulation model for the gas business chain MEGAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, S.M. de; Uzcategui, R.; Brea, E.; Diaz, R.

    1994-01-01

    MEGAS is a simulation model representing fundamental parameters of Corpoven's natural gas and NGL production, handling, processing, transportation and distribution systems in the Venezuelan mid-east, as well as its financial implications. Various strategies regarding development, prices, costs, new business opportunities, production scenarios, demand and energy policies can be evaluated through this model in order to determine, after analyzing the economics results, a set of strategies to follow in the mid and long term. MEGAS could be also used to make risk analysis studies, considering that probabilistic parameters and variables like gas quality, production, demand, plant shutdowns and others are to be represented by their distinctive function. It is possible to set up a probabilistic function for each economic indicator or operating variables with an appropriate experiment design. MEGAS is based on a dynamic simulation language, which facilitates both the real system components representation and the main variables statistical data accumulation. It also allows graphical representation of results and the simulation animation. Demand and price forecasts, new projects, costs and capabilities of the systems are some of the model input data. MEGAS should be considered as a tool that eases the strategic planning of the business, making it possible for the Corporation to foresee changes, both in the domestic and international market, to predict how these changes could affect its business affairs and to visualize different return scenarios

  3. CRISP. Information Security Models and Their Economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, R.; Mellstrand, P.; Tornqvist, B.

    2005-03-01

    The deliverable D1.6 includes background material and specifications of a CRISP Framework on protection of information assets related to power net management and management of business operations related to energy services. During the project it was discovered by the CRISP consortium that the original description of WP 1.6 was not adequate for the project as such. The main insight was that the original emphasis on cost-benefit analysis of security protection measures was to early to address in the project. This issue is of course crucial in itself but requires new models of consequence analysis that still remains to be developed, especially for the new business models we are investigated in the CRISP project. The updated and approved version of the WP1.6 description, together with the also updated WP2.4 focus on Dependable ICT support of Power Grid Operations constitutes an integrated approach towards dependable and secure future utilities and their business processes. This document (D1.6) is a background to deliverable D2.4. Together they provide a dependability and security framework to the three CRISP experiments in WP3

  4. An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

    2010-03-01

    Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

  5. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    , and the total stress level (i.e. stresses introduced due to internal pressure plus stresses introduced due to temperature gradients) must always be kept below the allowable stress level. In this way, the increased water-/steam space that should allow for better dynamic performance, in the end causes limited...... freedom with respect to dynamic operation of the plant. By means of an objective function including as well the price of the plant as a quantification of the value of dynamic operation of the plant an optimization is carried out. The dynamic model of the boiler plant is applied to define parts...

  6. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  7. Coupled flare attractors – a discrete prototype for economic modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georg C. Hartmann

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A chaotic environment can give rise to “flares” if an autocatalytic variable responds in a multiplicative, threshold-type fashion to the environmental forcing. An “economic unit” similarly depends in its growth behavior on the unpredictable (chaotic? buying habits of its customers, say. It turns out that coupled flare attractors are surprisingly robust in the sense that the resulting “economy” is largely independent of the extent of diffusive coupling used. Some simulations are presented.

  8. Advanced training simulator models. Implementation and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borkowsky, Jeffrey; Judd, Jerry; Belblidia, Lotfi; O'farrell, David; Andersen, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Modern training simulators are required to replicate plant data for both thermal-hydraulic and neutronic response. Replication is required such that reactivity manipulation on the simulator properly trains the operator for reactivity manipulation at the plant. This paper discusses advanced models which perform this function in real-time using the coupled code system THOR/S3R. This code system models the all fluids systems in detail using an advanced, two-phase thermal-hydraulic a model. The nuclear core is modeled using an advanced, three-dimensional nodal method and also by using cycle-specific nuclear data. These models are configured to run interactively from a graphical instructor station or handware operation panels. The simulator models are theoretically rigorous and are expected to replicate the physics of the plant. However, to verify replication, the models must be independently assessed. Plant data is the preferred validation method, but plant data is often not available for many important training scenarios. In the absence of data, validation may be obtained by slower-than-real-time transient analysis. This analysis can be performed by coupling a safety analysis code and a core design code. Such a coupling exists between the codes RELAP5 and SIMULATE-3K (S3K). RELAP5/S3K is used to validate the real-time model for several postulated plant events. (author)

  9. Regularization modeling for large-eddy simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurts, Bernardus J.; Holm, D.D.

    2003-01-01

    A new modeling approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is obtained by combining a "regularization principle" with an explicit filter and its inversion. This regularization approach allows a systematic derivation of the implied subgrid model, which resolves the closure problem. The central role of

  10. Analytical system dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Fabien, Brian C

    2008-01-01

    This book offering a modeling technique based on Lagrange's energy method includes 125 worked examples. Using this technique enables one to model and simulate systems as diverse as a six-link, closed-loop mechanism or a transistor power amplifier.

  11. Hybrid simulation models of production networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

    2001-01-01

    This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

  12. Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

  13. Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

    2001-01-01

    Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

  14. Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

  15. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  16. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  17. Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.

    2002-01-01

    Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator

  18. Simulating the Adaptive Mechanisms to Reduce the Risks of Occurence of Threats to the Economic Security of Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glushchevsky Vyacheslav V.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with addressing the topical problem of effectively countering real and potential threats to economic security of enterprises and reducing the risks of their occurrence. The article is aimed at simulating the adaptive mechanisms to counteract external influences on the marketing component of enterprise’s economic security and developing a system of measures for removing threats to price destabilization of its orders portfolio based on a modern economic-mathematical instrumentarium. The common causes of the threats occurrence related to the price policy of enterprise and the tactics of the contractual processes with the business partners have been explored. Hidden reserves for price maneuvering in concluding contracts with customers have been identified. An algorithmic model for an adaptive pricing task in terms of an assortment of industrial enterprise has been built. On the basis of this model, mechanisms have been developed to counteract the threats of occurrence and aggravation of a «price conflict» between the producing enterprise and the potential customers of its products, and to advise on how to remove the risks of their occurrence. Prospects for using the methodology together with the instrumentarium for economic-mathematical modeling in terms of tasks of the price risks management have been indicated.

  19. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  20. Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

    1998-03-01

    Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

  1. Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.

  2. Quantitative interface models for simulating microstructure evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, J.Z.; Wang, T.; Zhou, S.H.; Liu, Z.K.; Chen, L.Q.

    2004-01-01

    To quantitatively simulate microstructural evolution in real systems, we investigated three different interface models: a sharp-interface model implemented by the software DICTRA and two diffuse-interface models which use either physical order parameters or artificial order parameters. A particular example is considered, the diffusion-controlled growth of a γ ' precipitate in a supersaturated γ matrix in Ni-Al binary alloys. All three models use the thermodynamic and kinetic parameters from the same databases. The temporal evolution profiles of composition from different models are shown to agree with each other. The focus is on examining the advantages and disadvantages of each model as applied to microstructure evolution in alloys

  3. A queuing model for road traffic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrouahane, N.; Aissani, D.; Bouallouche-Medjkoune, L.; Farhi, N.

    2015-01-01

    We present in this article a stochastic queuing model for the raod traffic. The model is based on the M/G/c/c state dependent queuing model, and is inspired from the deterministic Godunov scheme for the road traffic simulation. We first propose a variant of M/G/c/c state dependent model that works with density-flow fundamental diagrams rather than density-speed relationships. We then extend this model in order to consider upstream traffic demand as well as downstream traffic supply. Finally, we show how to model a whole raod by concatenating raod sections as in the deterministic Godunov scheme

  4. Clock error models for simulation and estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meditch, J.S.

    1981-10-01

    Mathematical models for the simulation and estimation of errors in precision oscillators used as time references in satellite navigation systems are developed. The results, based on all currently known oscillator error sources, are directly implementable on a digital computer. The simulation formulation is sufficiently flexible to allow for the inclusion or exclusion of individual error sources as desired. The estimation algorithms, following from Kalman filter theory, provide directly for the error analysis of clock errors in both filtering and prediction

  5. Modeling and simulation goals and accomplishments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turinsky, P.

    2013-01-01

    The CASL (Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors) mission is to develop and apply the Virtual Reactor simulator (VERA) to optimise nuclear power in terms of capital and operating costs, of nuclear waste production and of nuclear safety. An efficient and reliable virtual reactor simulator relies on 3-dimensional calculations, accurate physics models and code coupling. Advances in computer hardware, along with comparable advances in numerical solvers make the VERA project achievable. This series of slides details the VERA project and presents the specificities and performance of the codes involved in the project and ends by listing the computing needs

  6. PLYMAP : a computer simulation model of the rotary peeled softwood plywood manufacturing process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry Spelter

    1990-01-01

    This report documents a simulation model of the plywood manufacturing process. Its purpose is to enable a user to make quick estimates of the economic impact of a particular process change within a mill. The program was designed to simulate the processing of plywood within a relatively simplified mill design. Within that limitation, however, it allows a wide range of...

  7. Emergent behavior in a coupled economic and coastline model for beach nourishment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. D. Lazarus

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Developed coastal areas often exhibit a strong systemic coupling between shoreline dynamics and economic dynamics. "Beach nourishment", a common erosion-control practice, involves mechanically depositing sediment from outside the local littoral system onto an actively eroding shoreline to alter shoreline morphology. Natural sediment-transport processes quickly rework the newly engineered beach, causing further changes to the shoreline that in turn affect subsequent beach-nourishment decisions. To the limited extent that this landscape/economic coupling has been considered, evidence suggests that towns tend to employ spatially myopic economic strategies under which individual towns make isolated decisions that do not account for their neighbors. What happens when an optimization strategy that explicitly ignores spatial interactions is incorporated into a physical model that is spatially dynamic? The long-term attractor that develops for the coupled system (the state and behavior to which the system evolves over time is unclear. We link an economic model, in which town-manager agents choose economically optimal beach-nourishment intervals according to past observations of their immediate shoreline, to a simplified coastal-dynamics model that includes alongshore sediment transport and background erosion (e.g. from sea-level rise. Simulations suggest that feedbacks between these human and natural coastal processes can generate emergent behaviors. When alongshore sediment transport and spatially myopic nourishment decisions are coupled, increases in the rate of sea-level rise can destabilize economically optimal nourishment practices into a regime characterized by the emergence of chaotic shoreline evolution.

  8. Simulation Modeling of Software Development Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calavaro, G. F.; Basili, V. R.; Iazeolla, G.

    1996-01-01

    A simulation modeling approach is proposed for the prediction of software process productivity indices, such as cost and time-to-market, and the sensitivity analysis of such indices to changes in the organization parameters and user requirements. The approach uses a timed Petri Net and Object Oriented top-down model specification. Results demonstrate the model representativeness, and its usefulness in verifying process conformance to expectations, and in performing continuous process improvement and optimization.

  9. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  10. Validation of the simulator neutronics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, M.V.

    1984-01-01

    The neutronics model in the SRP reactor training simulator computes the variation with time of the neutron population in the reactor core. The power output of a reactor is directly proportional to the neutron population, thus in a very real sense the neutronics model determines the response of the simulator. The geometrical complexity of the reactor control system in SRP reactors requires the neutronics model to provide a detailed, 3D representation of the reactor core. Existing simulator technology does not allow such a detailed representation to run in real-time in a minicomputer environment, thus an entirely different approach to the problem was required. A prompt jump method has been developed in answer to this need

  11. Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

    Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

  12. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

  13. How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

  14. A Study of How the Watts-Strogatz Model Relates to an Economic System’s Utility

    OpenAIRE

    Lunhan Luo; Jianan Fang

    2014-01-01

    Watts-Strogatz model is a main mechanism to construct the small-world networks. It is widely used in the simulations of small-world featured systems including economic system. Formally, the model contains a parameters set including three variables representing group size, number of neighbors, and rewiring probability. This paper discusses how the parameters set relates to the economic system performance which is utility growth rate. In conclusion, it is found that, regardless of the group siz...

  15. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  16. Simulation of socio-ecological impacts: Modeling a fishing village

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Philip C.

    1982-03-01

    The interrelationship of society and environment is addressed here through the study of a remote fishing village of 750 people. An interdisciplinary study evaluated demographic, economic, and social aspects of the community, and simulation modeling was used to integrate these societal characteristics with environmental factors. The population of the village had grown gradually until the 1960's, when a decline began. Out-migration correlated with declining fish harvests and with increased communications with urban centers. Fishing had provided the greatest economic opportunity, followed by logging. A survey was conducted to investigate the costs and revenues of village fishermen. Diversification characterized the local fleet, and analysis showed that rates of return on investment in the current year were equal between vessel types. The variable levels and rate parameters of the demographic, economic, and social components of the model were specified through static and time series data. Sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty, and validation tests against known historical changes were also conducted. Forecast scenarios identified the development options under several levels of fish abundance and investment. The weight given to ecological versus economic resource management registered disproportionate effects due to the interaction between investment and migration rates and resource stochasticity. This finding argues against a “golden mean” rule for evaluating policy trade-offs and argues for the importance of using a dynamic, socio-ecological perspective in designing development policies for rural communities.

  17. Using the Monopoly[R] Board Game as an In-Class Economic Simulation in the Introductory Financial Accounting Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanklin, Stephen B.; Ehlen, Craig R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses using the Monopoly[R] board game as an economic simulation exercise to reinforce an understanding of how the accounting cycle impacts financial statements used to evaluate management performance. This approach uses the rules and strategies of a familiar board game to create a simulation of business and economic realities,…

  18. Selecting the Most Economic Project under Uncertainty Using Bootstrap Technique and Fuzzy Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Shahanaghi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article, by leaving pre-determined membership function of a fuzzy set which is a basic assumption for such subject, will try to propose a hybrid technique to select the most economic project among alternative projects in fuzziness interest rates condition. In this way, net present worth (NPW would be the economic indicator. This article tries to challenge the assumption of large sample sizes availability for membership function determination and shows that some other techniques may have less accuracy. To give a robust solution, bootstrapping and fuzzy simulation is suggested and a numerical example is given and analyzed.

  19. New exploration on TMSR: modelling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Si, S.; Chen, Q.; Bei, H.; Zhao, J., E-mail: ssy@snerdi.com.cn [Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research & Design Inst., Shanghai (China)

    2015-07-01

    A tightly coupled multi-physics model for MSR (Molten Salt Reactor) system involving the reactor core and the rest of the primary loop has been developed and employed in an in-house developed computer code TANG-MSR. In this paper, the computer code is used to simulate the behavior of steady state operation and transient for our redesigned TMSR. The presented simulation results demonstrate that the models employed in TANG-MSR can capture major physics phenomena in MSR and the redesigned TMSR has excellent performance of safety and sustainability. (author)

  20. High temperature solar heating and cooling systems for different Mediterranean climates: Dynamic simulation and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calise, Francesco

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents a dynamic model of an innovative solar heating and cooling system (SHC) based on the coupling of Parabolic Trough Collectors (PTC) with a double-stage LiBr-H 2 O absorption chiller; auxiliary energy for both heating and cooling is supplied by a biomass-fired heater. The system layout also includes a number of additional components such as: cooling tower, pumps, heat exchangers, etc. The consumption of non-renewable energy resources is only due to the small amount of electrical energy consumed by some auxiliary device. A case study is presented, in which the SHC provides space heating and cooling and domestic hot water for a small university hall, all year long. Both the SHC system and the building were dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. In order to evaluate the performance of the investigated system in various climatic conditions, the analyses were performed for seven Mediterranean cities in Italy, Spain, Egypt, France, Greece and Turkey. The analysis was also performed for a similar SHC in which the biomass heater was replaced by a gas-fired heater, in order to evaluate the influence of biomass to the overall system economic and energetic performance. In addition, a parametric analysis was performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the results, when varying some of the main design and operating parameters, such as: collector field area, tank volume and set-point temperatures. The results showed that the SHC system layout investigated can be competitive for the majority of the locations analysed, although the economic profitability is higher for the hottest climates. - Highlights: → In the high temperature SHC system the auxiliary heat is provided by biomass. → The energetic performance of the system is excellent during the summer. → In the winter the system suffers of the low beam radiation incident on the PTC. → The Simple Pay Back Period is encouraging, particularly in case of public funding. → An increase of the solar field

  1. Nuclear reactor core modelling in multifunctional simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puska, E.K.

    1999-01-01

    The thesis concentrates on the development of nuclear reactor core models for the APROS multifunctional simulation environment and the use of the core models in various kinds of applications. The work was started in 1986 as a part of the development of the entire APROS simulation system. The aim was to create core models that would serve in a reliable manner in an interactive, modular and multifunctional simulator/plant analyser environment. One-dimensional and three-dimensional core neutronics models have been developed. Both models have two energy groups and six delayed neutron groups. The three-dimensional finite difference type core model is able to describe both BWR- and PWR-type cores with quadratic fuel assemblies and VVER-type cores with hexagonal fuel assemblies. The one- and three-dimensional core neutronics models can be connected with the homogeneous, the five-equation or the six-equation thermal hydraulic models of APROS. The key feature of APROS is that the same physical models can be used in various applications. The nuclear reactor core models of APROS have been built in such a manner that the same models can be used in simulator and plant analyser applications, as well as in safety analysis. In the APROS environment the user can select the number of flow channels in the three-dimensional reactor core and either the homogeneous, the five- or the six-equation thermal hydraulic model for these channels. The thermal hydraulic model and the number of flow channels have a decisive effect on the calculation time of the three-dimensional core model and thus, at present, these particular selections make the major difference between a safety analysis core model and a training simulator core model. The emphasis on this thesis is on the three-dimensional core model and its capability to analyse symmetric and asymmetric events in the core. The factors affecting the calculation times of various three-dimensional BWR, PWR and WWER-type APROS core models have been

  2. Nuclear reactor core modelling in multifunctional simulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Nuclear Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-06-01

    The thesis concentrates on the development of nuclear reactor core models for the APROS multifunctional simulation environment and the use of the core models in various kinds of applications. The work was started in 1986 as a part of the development of the entire APROS simulation system. The aim was to create core models that would serve in a reliable manner in an interactive, modular and multifunctional simulator/plant analyser environment. One-dimensional and three-dimensional core neutronics models have been developed. Both models have two energy groups and six delayed neutron groups. The three-dimensional finite difference type core model is able to describe both BWR- and PWR-type cores with quadratic fuel assemblies and VVER-type cores with hexagonal fuel assemblies. The one- and three-dimensional core neutronics models can be connected with the homogeneous, the five-equation or the six-equation thermal hydraulic models of APROS. The key feature of APROS is that the same physical models can be used in various applications. The nuclear reactor core models of APROS have been built in such a manner that the same models can be used in simulator and plant analyser applications, as well as in safety analysis. In the APROS environment the user can select the number of flow channels in the three-dimensional reactor core and either the homogeneous, the five- or the six-equation thermal hydraulic model for these channels. The thermal hydraulic model and the number of flow channels have a decisive effect on the calculation time of the three-dimensional core model and thus, at present, these particular selections make the major difference between a safety analysis core model and a training simulator core model. The emphasis on this thesis is on the three-dimensional core model and its capability to analyse symmetric and asymmetric events in the core. The factors affecting the calculation times of various three-dimensional BWR, PWR and WWER-type APROS core models have been

  3. Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Iannazzo

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.

  4. Integrated Water Resources Simulation Model for Rural Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.-H.; Liao, W.-T.; Tung, C.-P.

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop several water resources simulation models for residence houses, constructed wetlands and farms and then integrate these models for a rural community. Domestic and irrigation water uses are the major water demand in rural community. To build up a model estimating domestic water demand for residence houses, the average water use per person per day should be accounted first, including water uses of kitchen, bathroom, toilet and laundry. On the other hand, rice is the major crop in the study region, and its productive efficiency sometimes depends on the quantity of irrigation water. The water demand can be estimated by crop water use, field leakage and water distribution loss. Irrigation water comes from rainfall, water supply system and reclaimed water which treated by constructed wetland. In recent years, constructed wetlands play an important role in water resources recycle. They can purify domestic wastewater for water recycling and reuse. After treating from constructed wetlands, the reclaimed water can be reused in washing toilets, watering gardens and irrigating farms. Constructed wetland is one of highly economic benefits for treating wastewater through imitating the processing mechanism of natural wetlands. In general, the treatment efficiency of constructed wetlands is determined by evapotranspiration, inflow, and water temperature. This study uses system dynamics modeling to develop models for different water resource components in a rural community. Furthermore, these models are integrated into a whole system. The model not only is utilized to simulate how water moves through different components, including residence houses, constructed wetlands and farms, but also evaluates the efficiency of water use. By analyzing the flow of water, the water resource simulation model can optimizes water resource distribution under different scenarios, and the result can provide suggestions for designing water resource system of a

  5. Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saiki, Y.; Chian, A.C.L.; Yoshida, H.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Intermittent economic behavior of Keynes-Goodwin type model is investigated. → After a transition the system keeps its memory before the transition. → The intermittent phenomena is examined from the business cycle patterns. → It is concluded that dynamical patterns do not alter much around the transition. - Abstract: Intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is investigated by a two-country model of Keynes-Goodwin type business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from weak chaos to strong chaos the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations. In addition, we examine the intermittent phenomena from the view point of business cycle patterns near the crisis point.

  6. Economic intermittency in a two-country model of business cycles coupled by investment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saiki, Y., E-mail: saiki@math.sci.hokudai.ac.jp [Department of Mathematics, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0810 (Japan); Chian, A.C.L. [National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER), P.O. Box 515, Sao Jose dos Campos-SP 12227-010 (Brazil); California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Yoshida, H. [College of Economics, Nihon University, Tokyo 101-8360 (Japan)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > Intermittent economic behavior of Keynes-Goodwin type model is investigated. > After a transition the system keeps its memory before the transition. > The intermittent phenomena is examined from the business cycle patterns. > It is concluded that dynamical patterns do not alter much around the transition. - Abstract: Intermittent behavior of economic dynamics is investigated by a two-country model of Keynes-Goodwin type business cycles. Numerical simulations show that after an economic system evolves from weak chaos to strong chaos the system keeps its memory before the transition and its time series alternates episodically between periods of weakly and strongly chaotic fluctuations. In addition, we examine the intermittent phenomena from the view point of business cycle patterns near the crisis point.

  7. ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Zaporozhtseva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

  8. Kanban simulation model for production process optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golchev Riste

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A long time has passed since the KANBAN system has been established as an efficient method for coping with the excessive inventory. Still, the possibilities for its improvement through its integration with other different approaches should be investigated further. The basic research challenge of this paper is to present benefits of KANBAN implementation supported with Discrete Event Simulation (DES. In that direction, at the beginning, the basics of KANBAN system are presented with emphasis on the information and material flow, together with a methodology for implementation of KANBAN system. Certain analysis on combining the simulation with this methodology is presented. The paper is concluded with a practical example which shows that through understanding the philosophy of the implementation methodology of KANBAN system and the simulation methodology, a simulation model can be created which can serve as a basis for a variety of experiments that can be conducted within a short period of time, resulting with production process optimization.

  9. Vermont Yankee simulator BOP model upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alejandro, R.; Udbinac, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    The Vermont Yankee simulator has undergone significant changes in the 20 years since the original order was placed. After the move from the original Unix to MS Windows environment, and upgrade to the latest version of SimPort, now called MASTER, the platform was set for an overhaul and replacement of major plant system models. Over a period of a few months, the VY simulator team, in partnership with WSC engineers, replaced outdated legacy models of the main steam, condenser, condensate, circulating water, feedwater and feedwater heaters, and main turbine and auxiliaries. The timing was ideal, as the plant was undergoing a power up-rate, so the opportunity was taken to replace the legacy models with industry-leading, true on-line object oriented graphical models. Due to the efficiency of design and ease of use of the MASTER tools, VY staff performed the majority of the modeling work themselves with great success, with only occasional assistance from WSC, in a relatively short time-period, despite having to maintain all of their 'regular' simulator maintenance responsibilities. This paper will provide a more detailed view of the VY simulator, including how it is used and how it has benefited from the enhancements and upgrades implemented during the project. (author)

  10. A model of economic growth with physical and human capital: The role of time delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Luca; Guerrini, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

    2016-09-01

    This article aims at analysing a two-sector economic growth model with discrete delays. The focus is on the dynamic properties of the emerging system. In particular, this study concentrates on the stability properties of the stationary solution, characterised by analytical results and geometrical techniques (stability crossing curves), and the conditions under which oscillatory dynamics emerge (through Hopf bifurcations). In addition, this article proposes some numerical simulations to illustrate the behaviour of the system when the stationary equilibrium is unstable.

  11. Economics definitions, methods, models, and analysis procedures for Homeland Security applications.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne William; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Smith, Braeton J.; Warren, Drake E.; Downes, Paula Sue; Eidson, Eric D.; Mackey, Greg Edward

    2010-01-01

    This report gives an overview of the types of economic methodologies and models used by Sandia economists in their consequence analysis work for the National Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center and other DHS programs. It describes the three primary resolutions at which analysis is conducted (microeconomic, mesoeconomic, and macroeconomic), the tools used at these three levels (from data analysis to internally developed and publicly available tools), and how they are used individually and in concert with each other and other infrastructure tools.

  12. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

    2017-10-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

  13. An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

  14. Cost Effective Community Based Dementia Screening: A Markov Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin Saito

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Given the dementia epidemic and the increasing cost of healthcare, there is a need to assess the economic benefit of community based dementia screening programs. Materials and Methods. Markov model simulations were generated using data obtained from a community based dementia screening program over a one-year period. The models simulated yearly costs of caring for patients based on clinical transitions beginning in pre dementia and extending for 10 years. Results. A total of 93 individuals (74 female, 19 male were screened for dementia and 12 meeting clinical criteria for either mild cognitive impairment (n=7 or dementia (n=5 were identified. Assuming early therapeutic intervention beginning during the year of dementia detection, Markov model simulations demonstrated 9.8% reduction in cost of dementia care over a ten-year simulation period, primarily through increased duration in mild stages and reduced time in more costly moderate and severe stages. Discussion. Community based dementia screening can reduce healthcare costs associated with caring for demented individuals through earlier detection and treatment, resulting in proportionately reduced time in more costly advanced stages.

  15. Sustainable economic production quantity models for inventory systems with shortage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Soleymanfar, Vahid Reza; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    optimal values of inventory system variables, we solve four independent profit maximization problems for four different situations. These proposed models include a basic model in which shortages are not allowed, and when shortages are allowed, the lost sale, full backordering and partial backordering...... (EPQ). The theoretical sustainable EOQ and EPQ models are basic models that ignore many real-life conditions such as the possibility of stock-out in inventory systems. In this paper, we develop four new sustainable economic production quantity models that consider different shortage situations. To find...

  16. Simulation modeling and analysis in safety. II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayoub, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    The paper introduces and illustrates simulation modeling as a viable approach for dealing with complex issues and decisions in safety and health. The author details two studies: evaluation of employee exposure to airborne radioactive materials and effectiveness of the safety organization. The first study seeks to define a policy to manage a facility used in testing employees for radiation contamination. An acceptable policy is one that would permit the testing of all employees as defined under regulatory requirements, while not exceeding available resources. The second study evaluates the relationship between safety performance and the characteristics of the organization, its management, its policy, and communication patterns among various functions and levels. Both studies use models where decisions are reached based on the prevailing conditions and occurrence of key events within the simulation environment. Finally, several problem areas suitable for simulation studies are highlighted. (Auth.)

  17. Modeling salmonella Dublin into the dairy herd simulation model Simherd

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kudahl, Anne Braad

    2010-01-01

    Infection with Salmonella Dublin in the dairy herd and effects of the infection and relevant control measures are currently being modeled into the dairy herd simulation model called Simherd. The aim is to compare the effects of different control strategies against Salmonella Dublin on both within...... of the simulations will therefore be used for decision support in the national surveillance and eradication program against Salmonella Dublin. Basic structures of the model are programmed and will be presented at the workshop. The model is in a phase of face-validation by a group of Salmonella......-herd- prevalence and economy by simulations. The project Dublin on both within-herd- prevalence and economy by simulations. The project is a part of a larger national project "Salmonella 2007 - 2011" with the main objective to reduce the prevalence of Salmonella Dublin in Danish Dairy herds. Results...

  18. Optimizing nitrogen fertilizer use: Current approaches and simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baethgen, W.E.

    2000-01-01

    Nitrogen (N) is the most common limiting nutrient in agricultural systems throughout the world. Crops need sufficient available N to achieve optimum yields and adequate grain-protein content. Consequently, sub-optimal rates of N fertilizers typically cause lower economical benefits for farmers. On the other hand, excessive N fertilizer use may result in environmental problems such as nitrate contamination of groundwater and emission of N 2 O and NO. In spite of the economical and environmental importance of good N fertilizer management, the development of optimum fertilizer recommendations is still a major challenge in most agricultural systems. This article reviews the approaches most commonly used for making N recommendations: expected yield level, soil testing and plant analysis (including quick tests). The paper introduces the application of simulation models that complement traditional approaches, and includes some examples of current applications in Africa and South America. (author)

  19. Development of the financial model for analyses on economic performances of nuclear facilities and examples of its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi; Ueno, Seiichi; Kimura, Shigeru; Yuasa, Tadao.

    1988-10-01

    On the assumption of the commercialization stage of technologies, the analysis on performances in financial operation based on simulation studies is one of important study subjects in the field of the system analysis and economic assessments of nuclear technologies. However, economic assessments on financial performances of such complex industries as nuclear power based on nuclear fuel cycle industries, or as electric utilities composed of hydro, fossil, nuclear power stations are complicated, and the adoption of conventional financial model is insufficient in the case of nuclear technologies which have such special financial process as decommissioning. We, therefore, develop the computer simulation model that can analyze financial performances of nuclear facilities. In this report, the derivation of equations and outlines of the model are explained. Additionally, examples of hypothetical financial simulation studies on a coal-gasoline plant, nuclear waste industries, and analysis on economic perspectives of small size nuclear reactors for electric utilities are indicated. (author)

  20. Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Bui, Bich Xuan

    2017-01-01

    The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

  1. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  2. A universal simulator for ecological models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Niels

    2013-01-01

    Software design is an often neglected issue in ecological models, even though bad software design often becomes a hindrance for re-using, sharing and even grasping an ecological model. In this paper, the methodology of agile software design was applied to the domain of ecological models. Thus...... the principles for a universal design of ecological models were arrived at. To exemplify this design, the open-source software Universal Simulator was constructed using C++ and XML and is provided as a resource for inspiration....

  3. Biological transportation networks: Modeling and simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Albi, Giacomo

    2015-09-15

    We present a model for biological network formation originally introduced by Cai and Hu [Adaptation and optimization of biological transport networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111 (2013) 138701]. The modeling of fluid transportation (e.g., leaf venation and angiogenesis) and ion transportation networks (e.g., neural networks) is explained in detail and basic analytical features like the gradient flow structure of the fluid transportation network model and the impact of the model parameters on the geometry and topology of network formation are analyzed. We also present a numerical finite-element based discretization scheme and discuss sample cases of network formation simulations.

  4. Reproducibility in Computational Neuroscience Models and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougal, Robert A.; Bulanova, Anna S.; Lytton, William W.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Like all scientific research, computational neuroscience research must be reproducible. Big data science, including simulation research, cannot depend exclusively on journal articles as the method to provide the sharing and transparency required for reproducibility. Methods Ensuring model reproducibility requires the use of multiple standard software practices and tools, including version control, strong commenting and documentation, and code modularity. Results Building on these standard practices, model sharing sites and tools have been developed that fit into several categories: 1. standardized neural simulators, 2. shared computational resources, 3. declarative model descriptors, ontologies and standardized annotations; 4. model sharing repositories and sharing standards. Conclusion A number of complementary innovations have been proposed to enhance sharing, transparency and reproducibility. The individual user can be encouraged to make use of version control, commenting, documentation and modularity in development of models. The community can help by requiring model sharing as a condition of publication and funding. Significance Model management will become increasingly important as multiscale models become larger, more detailed and correspondingly more difficult to manage by any single investigator or single laboratory. Additional big data management complexity will come as the models become more useful in interpreting experiments, thus increasing the need to ensure clear alignment between modeling data, both parameters and results, and experiment. PMID:27046845

  5. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  6. A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE GAS COMPLEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolova G. E.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the dynamics of gas production in Russia, the structure of sales in the different market segments, as well as comparative dynamics of selling prices on these segments. Problems of approach to the creation of the gas complex using a simulation model, allowing to estimate efficiency of the project and determine the stability region of the obtained solutions. In the presented model takes into account the unit repayment of the loan, allowing with the first year of simulation to determine the possibility of repayment of the loan. The model object is a group of gas fields, which is determined by the minimum flow rate above which the project is cost-effective. In determining the minimum source flow rate for the norm of discount is taken as a generalized weighted average percentage on debt and equity taking into account risk premiums. He also serves as the lower barrier to internal rate of return below which the project is rejected as ineffective. Analysis of the dynamics and methods of expert evaluation allow to determine the intervals of variation of the simulated parameters, such as the price of gas and the exit gas complex at projected capacity. Calculated using the Monte Carlo method, for each random realization of the model simulated values of parameters allow to obtain a set of optimal for each realization of values minimum yield of wells, and also allows to determine the stability region of the solution.

  7. Object Oriented Modelling and Dynamical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin

    1998-01-01

    This report with appendix describes the work done in master project at DTU.The goal of the project was to develop a concept for simulation of dynamical systems based on object oriented methods.The result was a library of C++-classes, for use when both building componentbased models and when...

  8. Advanced feeder control using fast simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verheijen, O.S.; Op den Camp, O.M.G.C.; Beerkens, R.G.C.; Backx, A.C.P.M.; Huisman, L.; Drummond, C.H.

    2005-01-01

    For the automatic control of glass quality in glass production, the relation between process variable and product or glass quality and process conditions/process input parameters must be known in detail. So far, detailed 3-D glass melting simulation models were used to predict the effect of process

  9. Modeling and Simulating Virtual Anatomical Humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madehkhaksar, Forough; Luo, Zhiping; Pronost, Nicolas; Egges, Arjan

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents human musculoskeletal modeling and simulation as a challenging field that lies between biomechanics and computer animation. One of the main goals of computer animation research is to develop algorithms and systems that produce plausible motion. On the other hand, the main

  10. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course

  11. Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkooijen, W.J.H.

    1996-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

  12. Aligning the economic modeling of software reuse with reuse practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, D.; Meijler, 27696

    In contrast to current practices where software reuse is applied recursively and reusable assets are tailored trough parameterization or specialization, existing reuse economic models assume that (i) the cost of reusing a software asset depends on its size and (ii) reusable assets are developed from

  13. The use of modeling in the economic evaluation of vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Jasper M; Alphen, Loek van; Postma, Maarten J

    2002-01-01

    As a consequence of the increased role of pharmacoeconomics in policy-making, economic evaluations are performed at more and more early stages in the development of a therapeutic. This implies the development of models to assess the future impact of an intervention and to account for the level of

  14. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Lafleche, Laurent; Nurbekyan, Levon

    2016-01-01

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks

  15. Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruseman, G.

    2000-01-01

    This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

  16. Models of Economic Growth and Development in the Context of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The better-known models of economic growth such as the Lewis, Rostow,. Harrod-Domar ... produce highly educated populaces usually reap the benefits of such in terms of high per capita ..... The Russian revolution of 1917 led by Lenin proposed in theory a .... This was about government intervention into the economy to ...

  17. Student Migration to Online Education: An Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Joseph G.

    2013-01-01

    The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…

  18. INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR MODELING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boldeanu Dana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the most important financial and economic indicators at the level of some organizations from the same sector of activity, the selection of performance ratios and generating a particular analysis model help companies to move from the desire

  19. A survey on the geometry of production models in economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina-Daniela Vîlcu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article we survey selected recent results on the geometry of production models, focussing on the main production functions that are usually analyzed in economics, namely homogeneous, homothetic, quasi-sum and quasi-product production functions.

  20. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  1. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  2. Modelling the economic impact of three lameness causing diseases using herd and cow level evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ettema, Jehan; Østergaard, Søren; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard

    2010-06-01

    Diseases to the cow's hoof, interdigital skin and legs are highly prevalent and of large economic impact in modern dairy farming. In order to support farmer's decisions on preventing and treating lameness and its underlying causes, decision support models can be used to predict the economic profitability of such actions. An existing approach of modelling lameness as one health disorder in a dynamic, stochastic and mechanistic simulation model has been improved in two ways. First of all, three underlying diseases causing lameness were modelled: digital dermatitis, interdigital hyperplasia and claw horn diseases. Secondly, the existing simulation model was set-up in way that it uses hyper-distributions describing diseases risk of the three lameness causing diseases. By combining information on herd level risk factors with prevalence of lameness or prevalence of underlying diseases among cows, marginal posterior probability distributions for disease prevalence in the specific herd are created in a Bayesian network. Random draws from these distributions are used by the simulation model to describe disease risk. Hereby field data on prevalence is used systematically and uncertainty around herd specific risk is represented. Besides the fact that estimated profitability of halving disease risk depended on the hyper-distributions used, the estimates differed for herds with different levels of diseases risk and reproductive efficiency. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Thermohydraulic modeling and simulation of breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawal, A.K.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Curtis, R.T.; Hetrick, D.L.; Girijashankar, P.V.

    1982-01-01

    This paper deals with the modeling and simulation of system-wide transients in LMFBRs. Unprotected events (i.e., the presumption of failure of the plant protection system) leading to core-melt are not considered in this paper. The existing computational capabilities in the area of protected transients in the US are noted. Various physical and numerical approximations that are made in these codes are discussed. Finally, the future direction in the area of model verification and improvements is discussed

  4. Simulating the binary variates for the components of a socio - economical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan V. Stefanescu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Often in practice the components Wj of a sociological or an economical system W take discrete 0-1 values. We talk about how to generate arbitrary observations from a binary 0-1 system B when is known the multidimensional distribution of the discrete random vector B. We also simulated a simplified structure of B given by the marginal distributions together with the matrix of the correlation coefficients. Different properties of the systems W are presented too.

  5. SIMULATION AND PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A COMPLEX OF NUTRIENTS USING CAMISEA GAS

    OpenAIRE

    Porlles L., J.; Cárdenas R., J.

    2014-01-01

    Peru is in fact a country with important reservoirs of natural gas as Camisea and it opens potential opportunities for gas chemical development. In a mark of a higher enterprise competitiveness, in industry any time is more generalized to account with tools as support for enhanced of process and cost savings. The simulation and optimization of industrial process aided by computer is a powerful alternative. This work has as propose to make the design of a process an economical analysis with pr...

  6. Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

    2003-01-01

    Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

  7. Discrete Event System Based Pyroprocessing Modeling and Simulation: Oxide Reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H. J.; Ko, W. I.; Choi, S. Y.; Kim, S. K.; Hur, J. M.; Choi, E. Y.; Im, H. S.; Park, K. I.; Kim, I. T.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic changes according to the batch operation cannot be predicted in an equilibrium material flow. This study began to build a dynamic material balance model based on the previously developed pyroprocessing flowsheet. As a mid- and long-term research, an integrated pyroprocessing simulator is being developed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to cope with a review on the technical feasibility, safeguards assessment, conceptual design of facility, and economic feasibility evaluation. The most fundamental thing in such a simulator development is to establish the dynamic material flow framework. This study focused on the operation modeling of pyroprocessing to implement a dynamic material flow. As a case study, oxide reduction was investigated in terms of a dynamic material flow. DES based modeling was applied to build a pyroprocessing operation model. A dynamic material flow as the basic framework for an integrated pyroprocessing was successfully implemented through ExtendSim's internal database and item blocks. Complex operation logic behavior was verified, for example, an oxide reduction process in terms of dynamic material flow. Compared to the equilibrium material flow, a model-based dynamic material flow provides such detailed information that a careful analysis of every batch is necessary to confirm the dynamic material balance results. With the default scenario of oxide reduction, the batch mass balance was verified in comparison with a one-year equilibrium mass balance. This study is still under progress with a mid-and long-term goal, the development of a multi-purpose pyroprocessing simulator that is able to cope with safeguards assessment, economic feasibility, technical evaluation, conceptual design, and support of licensing for a future pyroprocessing facility

  8. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  9. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

  10. Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-06-01

    Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

  11. Chaos control in an economic model via minimum entropy strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salarieh, Hassan [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: salarieh@mech.sharif.edu; Alasty, Aria [Center of Excellence in Design, Robotics and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, P.O. Box 11365-9567, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); National Research Institute for Science Policy (NRISP), Soheil Street, Shirazi Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)], E-mail: aalasti@sharif.edu

    2009-04-30

    In this paper, minimum entropy algorithm for controlling chaos, is applied to a Cournot duopoly with different constant marginal costs, as a discrete-time dynamical system which shows chaotic behavior. The ME control is implemented through delayed feedback. It is assumed that the equations of the dynamical system are not known, so the feedback gain cannot be obtained analytically from the system equations. In the ME method the feedback gain is obtained adaptively in such a way that the entropy of the system converges to zero, hence a fixed point of the system will be stabilized. Application of the proposed method with different economic control strategies is numerically investigated. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the ME method for controlling chaos in economic systems with unknown equations.

  12. Modeling Supermassive Black Holes in Cosmological Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremmel, Michael

    My thesis work has focused on improving the implementation of supermassive black hole (SMBH) physics in cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. SMBHs are ubiquitous in mas- sive galaxies, as well as bulge-less galaxies and dwarfs, and are thought to be a critical component to massive galaxy evolution. Still, much is unknown about how SMBHs form, grow, and affect their host galaxies. Cosmological simulations are an invaluable tool for un- derstanding the formation of galaxies, self-consistently tracking their evolution with realistic merger and gas accretion histories. SMBHs are often modeled in these simulations (generally as a necessity to produce realistic massive galaxies), but their implementations are commonly simplified in ways that can limit what can be learned. Current and future observations are opening new windows into the lifecycle of SMBHs and their host galaxies, but require more detailed, physically motivated simulations. Within the novel framework I have developed, SMBHs 1) are seeded at early times without a priori assumptions of galaxy occupation, 2) grow in a way that accounts for the angular momentum of gas, and 3) experience realistic orbital evolution. I show how this model, properly tuned with a novel parameter optimiza- tion technique, results in realistic galaxies and SMBHs. Utilizing the unique ability of these simulations to capture the dynamical evolution of SMBHs, I present the first self-consistent prediction for the formation timescales of close SMBH pairs, precursors to SMBH binaries and merger events potentially detected by future gravitational wave experiments.

  13. Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

  14. A Dynamic Economic Model with Discrete Time and Consumer Sentiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dobrescu

    2009-01-01

    is replaced by a (quasi periodic motion. We associate the difference stochastic equation to the model by randomizing the control parameter d and by adding one stochastic control. Numerical simulations are made for the deterministic and stochastic models, for different values of the control parameter d.

  15. Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

    2018-05-14

    Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  16. Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang, Min

    2014-01-01

    Modern societies are becoming increasingly dependent on critical infrastructure systems (CISs) to provide essential services that support economic prosperity, governance, and quality of life. These systems are not alone but interdependent at multiple levels to enhance their overall performance. However, recent worldwide events such as the 9/11 terrorist attack, Gulf Coast hurricanes, the Chile and Japanese earthquakes, and even heat waves have highlighted that interdependencies among CISs increase the potential for cascading failures and amplify the impact of both large and small scale initial failures into events of catastrophic proportions. To better understand CISs to support planning, maintenance and emergency decision making, modeling and simulation of interdependencies across CISs has recently become a key field of study. This paper reviews the studies in the field and broadly groups the existing modeling and simulation approaches into six types: empirical approaches, agent based approaches, system dynamics based approaches, economic theory based approaches, network based approaches, and others. Different studies for each type of the approaches are categorized and reviewed in terms of fundamental principles, such as research focus, modeling rationale, and the analysis method, while different types of approaches are further compared according to several criteria, such as the notion of resilience. Finally, this paper offers future research directions and identifies critical challenges in the field. - Highlights: • Modeling approaches on interdependent critical infrastructure systems are reviewed. • I mainly review empirical, agent-based, system-dynamics, economic, network approaches. • Studies by each approach are sorted out in terms of fundamental principles. • Different approaches are further compared with resilience as the main criterion

  17. Model-Based Economic Evaluation of Treatments for Depression: A Systematic Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolovos, Spyros; Bosmans, Judith E.; Riper, Heleen

    2017-01-01

    eligible if they used a health economic model with quality-adjusted life-years or disability-adjusted life-years as an outcome measure. Data related to various methodological characteristics were extracted from the included studies. The available modelling techniques were evaluated based on 11 predefined......, and DES models in seven.ConclusionThere were substantial methodological differences between the studies. Since the individual history of each patient is important for the prognosis of depression, DES and ISM simulation methods may be more appropriate than the others for a pragmatic representation...

  18. Advances in NLTE Modeling for Integrated Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, H A; Hansen, S B

    2009-07-08

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different elements for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with surprising accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, {Delta}n = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short timesteps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  19. Pilot Study: Impact of Computer Simulation on Students' Economic Policy Performance. Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domazlicky, Bruce; France, Judith

    Fiscal and monetary policies taught in macroeconomic principles courses are concepts that might require both lecture and simulation methods. The simulation models, which apply the principles gleened from comparative statistics to a dynamic world, may give students an appreciation for the problems facing policy makers. This paper is a report of a…

  20. A Pedagogical Note on Modeling the Economic Benefit of Emissions Abatement vs. the Economic Harm from Emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher S. Decker

    2012-01-01

    The number of undergraduate-level textbooks on environmental economics has increased in recent years, but the textbook treatment of optimal emissions (abatement) varies markedly from textbook to textbook. In particular, there is no consensus as to whether to model the economic “bad” (i.e. emissions) or the economic “good” (abatement). This inconsistency can lead to some needless confusion for students introduced to environmental economics for the first time, particularly those students outsid...

  1. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  2. Patients with newly diagnosed cervical cancer should be screened for anal human papilloma virus and anal dysplasia: Results of a pilot study using a STELLA computer simulation and economic model

    OpenAIRE

    Eli D. Ehrenpreis; Dylan G. Smith

    2018-01-01

    Background: Women with cervical cancer often have anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and anal dysplasia. However, effectiveness of anal HPV screening is unknown. Methods: A dynamic model was constructed using STELLA. Populations are represented as ''stocks'' that change according to model rates. Initial anal cytology in new cervical cancer patients, dysplasia progression and regression, cost of treating high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), and lifetime costs for anal can...

  3. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  4. Modeling the economics and market adoption of distributed power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maribu, Karl Magnus

    2006-01-01

    significant value in postponing investment until larger projects are profitable. In the second paper, Combined Heat and Power in Commercial Buildings: Investment and Risk Analysis, a Monte Carlo simulation program to find the value and risk characteristics of combined heat and power units is presented. Using historical price data to estimate price process parameters, it is shown that uncertain prices should not be a barrier for investment, since on-site generators can adapt to uncertain prices and reduce the total energy cost risks. In, Optimizing Distributed Generation Systems for Commercial Buildings, which uses a mixed integer linear program, distributed generation portfolios that maximize profitability are tailored to a building's energy load. Distributed generation with heat recovery and thermally activated cooling are found profitable in an office and a health care building, using current generator data and energy tariffs from California. With the fourth paper, Distributed Energy Resources Market Diffusion Model, the analysis is taken a step further to predict distributed generation market diffusion. Market penetration is assumed to depend on economic attractiveness and knowledge and trust in the technologies. A case study based on the U.S. commercial sector depicts a large market for reciprocating engines and micro turbines, with the West and Northeast regions driving market diffusion. Technology research and outreach programs can speed up and change the path of capacity expansion. The thesis presents three different models for analyzing investments in distributed generation, all of which have benefits and disadvantages. Choice of model depends on the specific application, but the different approaches can be used on the same problem to analyze it from different viewpoints. The cases in the thesis indicate that distributed generation can reduce expected energy costs while at the same time improve cost predictability. Further, the thesis identifies several important

  5. Mesoscopic modelling and simulation of soft matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiller, Ulf D; Krüger, Timm; Henrich, Oliver

    2017-12-20

    The deformability of soft condensed matter often requires modelling of hydrodynamical aspects to gain quantitative understanding. This, however, requires specialised methods that can resolve the multiscale nature of soft matter systems. We review a number of the most popular simulation methods that have emerged, such as Langevin dynamics, dissipative particle dynamics, multi-particle collision dynamics, sometimes also referred to as stochastic rotation dynamics, and the lattice-Boltzmann method. We conclude this review with a short glance at current compute architectures for high-performance computing and community codes for soft matter simulation.

  6. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  7. High tech supply chain simulation based on dynamical systems model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yuan, X.; Ashayeri, J.

    2013-01-01

    During the last 45 years, system dynamics as a continuous type of simulation has been used for simulating various problems, ranging from economic to engineering and managerial when limited (historical) information is available. Control theory is another alternative for continuous simulation that

  8. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  9. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  10. Modeling, simulation and optimization of bipedal walking

    CERN Document Server

    Berns, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    The model-based investigation of motions of anthropomorphic systems is an important interdisciplinary research topic involving specialists from many fields such as Robotics, Biomechanics, Physiology, Orthopedics, Psychology, Neurosciences, Sports, Computer Graphics and Applied Mathematics. This book presents a study of basic locomotion forms such as walking and running is of particular interest due to the high demand on dynamic coordination, actuator efficiency and balance control. Mathematical models and numerical simulation and optimization techniques are explained, in combination with experimental data, which can help to better understand the basic underlying mechanisms of these motions and to improve them. Example topics treated in this book are Modeling techniques for anthropomorphic bipedal walking systems Optimized walking motions for different objective functions Identification of objective functions from measurements Simulation and optimization approaches for humanoid robots Biologically inspired con...

  11. Multiphase reacting flows modelling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Marchisio, Daniele L

    2007-01-01

    The papers in this book describe the most widely applicable modeling approaches and are organized in six groups covering from fundamentals to relevant applications. In the first part, some fundamentals of multiphase turbulent reacting flows are covered. In particular the introduction focuses on basic notions of turbulence theory in single-phase and multi-phase systems as well as on the interaction between turbulence and chemistry. In the second part, models for the physical and chemical processes involved are discussed. Among other things, particular emphasis is given to turbulence modeling strategies for multiphase flows based on the kinetic theory for granular flows. Next, the different numerical methods based on Lagrangian and/or Eulerian schemes are presented. In particular the most popular numerical approaches of computational fluid dynamics codes are described (i.e., Direct Numerical Simulation, Large Eddy Simulation, and Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes approach). The book will cover particle-based meth...

  12. Simulation Models to Size and Retrofit District Heating Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Sartor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available District heating networks are considered as convenient systems to supply heat to consumers while reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing renewable energies use. However, to make them as profitable as possible, they have to be developed, operated and sized carefully. In order to cope with these objectives, simulation tools are required to analyze several configuration schemes and control methods. Indeed, the most common problems are heat losses, the electric pump consumption and the peak heat demand while ensuring the comfort of the users. In this contribution, a dynamic simulation model of all the components of the network is described. It is dedicated to assess some energetic, environmental and economic indicators. Finally, the methodology is used on an existing application test case namely the district heating network of the University of Liège to study the pump control and minimize the district heating network heat losses.

  13. Developing tourist attraction simulation in Jayengan Kampoeng Permata for stimulating economic friendly city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astuti, Winny; Qomarun; Febela, Alfa; Putri, Rufia A.; Mukaromah, H.

    2018-03-01

    Concept of friendly city mentions about better employment options and more opportunities of the local communities. Tourism development and creative industry effectively enhance regional economic development and community welfare. Kampoeng Jayengan is located in Serengan District, Surakarta, which the local community was originally come from Banjar in 1746; with the main economic activity was Jewels Trader. Jayengan Jewels Kampoeng (JKP) will support development of Surakarta as a creative city integrated with other creative tourism Kampoengs. In fact, JKP has been launched by the Secretary of Surakarta Government in 2015 indicated the Government’s attention and support to development of the area. This research aims for Developing Attraction Simulation based on the local economic activities of the communities in order to stimulate Economic friendly city. The methods used mixed methods combining quantitative through field observation and qualitative approach through interview and FGD. The results developed two directions of Tourism Attraction destination, the West and the East Direction. The sequence process of the jewels craft making is challenging for creating the path of tourism attraction in JKP. This implies for increasing tourist visits, enhancing regional economic development and community welfare.

  14. Advancing Material Models for Automotive Forming Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegter, H.; An, Y.; Horn, C.H.L.J. ten; Atzema, E.H.; Roelofsen, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Simulations in automotive industry need more advanced material models to achieve highly reliable forming and springback predictions. Conventional material models implemented in the FEM-simulation models are not capable to describe the plastic material behaviour during monotonic strain paths with sufficient accuracy. Recently, ESI and Corus co-operate on the implementation of an advanced material model in the FEM-code PAMSTAMP 2G. This applies to the strain hardening model, the influence of strain rate, and the description of the yield locus in these models. A subsequent challenge is the description of the material after a change of strain path.The use of advanced high strength steels in the automotive industry requires a description of plastic material behaviour of multiphase steels. The simplest variant is dual phase steel consisting of a ferritic and a martensitic phase. Multiphase materials also contain a bainitic phase in addition to the ferritic and martensitic phase. More physical descriptions of strain hardening than simple fitted Ludwik/Nadai curves are necessary.Methods to predict plastic behaviour of single-phase materials use a simple dislocation interaction model based on the formed cells structures only. At Corus, a new method is proposed to predict plastic behaviour of multiphase materials have to take hard phases into account, which deform less easily. The resulting deformation gradients create geometrically necessary dislocations. Additional micro-structural information such as morphology and size of hard phase particles or grains is necessary to derive the strain hardening models for this type of materials.Measurements available from the Numisheet benchmarks allow these models to be validated. At Corus, additional measured values are available from cross-die tests. This laboratory test can attain critical deformations by large variations in blank size and processing conditions. The tests are a powerful tool in optimising forming simulations prior

  15. The Analysis of Simulation Based Acquisition (SBA) Economic Breakpoints in the Life Cycle of Major Programs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hunt, George

    2002-01-01

    ...). Application of SBA initiatives relies upon the use of modeling and simulation, among other methods, to effectively use scarce resources funds, manpower, equipment in the life cycle of major programs...

  16. Modelling and simulation of thermal power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eborn, J.

    1998-02-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation are important tools when dealing with engineering systems that today are becoming increasingly more complex. Integrated production and recycling of materials are trends that give rise to heterogenous systems, which are difficult to handle within one area of expertise. Model libraries are an excellent way to package engineering knowledge of systems and units to be reused by those who are not experts in modelling. Many commercial packages provide good model libraries, but they are usually domain-specific and closed. Heterogenous, multi-domain systems requires open model libraries written in general purpose modelling languages. This thesis describes a model database for thermal power plants written in the object-oriented modelling language OMOLA. The models are based on first principles. Subunits describe volumes with pressure and enthalpy dynamics and flows of heat or different media. The subunits are used to build basic units such as pumps, valves and heat exchangers which can be used to build system models. Several applications are described; a heat recovery steam generator, equipment for juice blending, steam generation in a sulphuric acid plant and a condensing steam plate heat exchanger. Model libraries for industrial use must be validated against measured data. The thesis describes how parameter estimation methods can be used for model validation. Results from a case-study on parameter optimization of a non-linear drum boiler model show how the technique can be used 32 refs, 21 figs

  17. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect...... incomplete knowledge of the characteristics inherent to each model. During water immersion, the hydrostatic pressure lowers the peripheral vascular capacity and causes increased thoracic blood volume and high vascular perfusion. In turn, these changes lead to high urinary flow, low vasomotor tone, and a high...

  18. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  19. The Economic Basis of the Model of Traditional Montenegrin Masculinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branko Banović

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity is inseparable from the social formations that have contributed to its creation, hence the need for its more thorough economic, social and historical contextualization. It is particularly important to distinguish the two components of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity, which tend to be intertwined and are therefore difficult to separate. The first concerns the gender roles assigned to men and women in an economy based on livestock raising, warfare, and raiding, while the other concerns the concept of gender roles shaped by fictional, ethnological and historical narratives. The paper attempts to problematize the economic basis of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity in the context of a semi-nomadic livestock raising economy and a clan’s collective property.

  20. Mathematical models and numerical simulation in electromagnetism

    CERN Document Server

    Bermúdez, Alfredo; Salgado, Pilar

    2014-01-01

    The book represents a basic support for a master course in electromagnetism oriented to numerical simulation. The main goal of the book is that the reader knows the boundary-value problems of partial differential equations that should be solved in order to perform computer simulation of electromagnetic processes. Moreover it includes a part devoted to electric circuit theory  based on ordinary differential equations. The book is mainly oriented to electric engineering applications, going from the general to the specific, namely, from the full Maxwell’s equations to the particular cases of electrostatics, direct current, magnetostatics and eddy currents models. Apart from standard exercises related to analytical calculus, the book includes some others oriented to real-life applications solved with MaxFEM free simulation software.

  1. Simulation as a surgical teaching model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Gómez, José Luis; Martín-Parra, José Ignacio; González-Noriega, Mónica; Redondo-Figuero, Carlos Godofredo; Manuel-Palazuelos, José Carlos

    2018-01-01

    Teaching of surgery has been affected by many factors over the last years, such as the reduction of working hours, the optimization of the use of the operating room or patient safety. Traditional teaching methodology fails to reduce the impact of these factors on surgeońs training. Simulation as a teaching model minimizes such impact, and is more effective than traditional teaching methods for integrating knowledge and clinical-surgical skills. Simulation complements clinical assistance with training, creating a safe learning environment where patient safety is not affected, and ethical or legal conflicts are avoided. Simulation uses learning methodologies that allow teaching individualization, adapting it to the learning needs of each student. It also allows training of all kinds of technical, cognitive or behavioural skills. Copyright © 2017 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. A spatially and temporally resolved model of the electricity grid – Economic vs environmental dispatch

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Razeghi, Ghazal; Brouwer, Jack; Samuelsen, Scott

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A spatially and temporally resolved dispatch model is developed. • MCP and average price of electricity are determined for 2050 base case. • Economic and environmental dispatch strategies are assessed. • Environmental dispatch results in significant NO_x reduction and higher prices. • A combination of economic and environmental strategies is the preferred method. - Abstract: Substantial changes need to occur in the electricity generation sector in order to address greenhouse gas and urban air quality goals. These goals, combined with increasing energy prices, have led to elevated interest in alternative, low to zero carbon and pollutant emission technologies in this sector. The challenge is to assess the impacts of various technologies, policies, and market practices in order to develop a roadmap to meet energy and environmental goals. To this end, a spatially and temporally resolved resource dispatch model is developed that simulates an electricity market while taking into account physical constraints associated with various components of an electricity grid. Multiple technology simulation modules are developed to provide inputs to the model. The model is used to design a market-based grid, and to develop and evaluate different dispatch strategies. To maintain the system cost at acceptable levels and reduce emissions, the results reveal that the best approach is a combination of economic and environmental dispatch strategies. The methodology and the tools developed provide a means to examine various aspects of future scenarios and their impacts on different sectors, and can be used for both decision making and planning.

  3. System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2 storage in gas reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

    2007-01-01

    One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial sources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers or depleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improve understanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO 2 storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost of CO 2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasis to date on system-level analyses of geological CO 2 storage that consider geological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailed process models to representations of engineering components and associated economic models. The objective of this study is to develop a system-level model for geological CO 2 storage, including CO 2 capture and separation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, and CO 2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailed reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection into a gas reservoir and related enhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associated environmental impacts are also considered. The platform for the system-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim Technology Group; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system model focuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration with enhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. The reservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2 simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO 2 . Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhanced gas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits of CO 2 injection

  4. Modeling and simulation of photovoltaic solar panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belarbi, M.; Haddouche, K.; Midoun, A.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, we present a new approach for estimating the model parameters of a photovoltaic solar panel according to the irradiance and temperature. The parameters of the one diode model are given from the knowledge of three operating points: short-circuit, open circuit, and maximum power. In the first step, the adopted approach concerns the resolution of the system of equations constituting the three operating points to write all the model parameters according to series resistance. Secondly, we make an iterative resolution at the optimal operating point by using the Newton-Raphson method to calculate the series resistance value as well as the model parameters. Once the panel model is identified, we consider other equations for taking into account the irradiance and temperature effect. The simulation results show the convergence speed of the model parameters and the possibility of visualizing the electrical behaviour of the panel according to the irradiance and temperature. Let us note that a sensitivity of the algorithm at the optimal operating point was observed owing to the fact that a small variation of the optimal voltage value leads to a very great variation of the identified parameters values. With the identified model, we can develop algorithms of maximum power point tracking, and make simulations of a solar water pumping system.(Author)

  5. Deep Drawing Simulations With Different Polycrystalline Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, Laurent; de Montleau, Pierre; Bouvier, Salima; Habraken, Anne Marie

    2004-06-01

    The goal of this research is to study the anisotropic material behavior during forming processes, represented by both complex yield loci and kinematic-isotropic hardening models. A first part of this paper describes the main concepts of the `Stress-strain interpolation' model that has been implemented in the non-linear finite element code Lagamine. This model consists of a local description of the yield locus based on the texture of the material through the full constraints Taylor's model. The texture evolution due to plastic deformations is computed throughout the FEM simulations. This `local yield locus' approach was initially linked to the classical isotropic Swift hardening law. Recently, a more complex hardening model was implemented: the physically-based microstructural model of Teodosiu. It takes into account intergranular heterogeneity due to the evolution of dislocation structures, that affects isotropic and kinematic hardening. The influence of the hardening model is compared to the influence of the texture evolution thanks to deep drawing simulations.

  6. Facebook's personal page modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    In this paper we will try to define the utility of Facebook's Personal Page marketing method. This tool that Facebook provides, is modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Facebook marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following model has been developed for a social media marketing agent/company, Facebook platform oriented and tested in real circumstances. This model is finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, development, simulation, testing and evaluation processes. The validity and usefulness of this Facebook marketing model for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. Facebook's Personal Page method can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the total profit of the company which is to bring new customers, keep the interest of the old customers and deliver traffic to its website.

  7. Landfill mining: Development of a cost simulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsberger, Tanja; Pinkel, Michael; Polansek, Stephanie; Sarc, Renato; Hermann, Robert; Pomberger, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Landfill mining permits recovering secondary raw materials from landfills. Whether this purpose is economically feasible, however, is a matter of various aspects. One is the amount of recoverable secondary raw material (like metals) that can be exploited with a profit. Other influences are the costs for excavation, for processing the waste at the landfill site and for paying charges on the secondary disposal of waste. Depending on the objectives of a landfill mining project (like the recovery of a ferrous and/or a calorific fraction) these expenses and revenues are difficult to assess in advance. This situation complicates any previous assessment of the economic feasibility and is the reason why many landfills that might be suitable for landfill mining are continuingly operated as active landfills, generating aftercare costs and leaving potential hazards to later generations. This article presents a newly developed simulation model for landfill mining projects. It permits identifying the quantities and qualities of output flows that can be recovered by mining and by mobile on-site processing of the waste based on treatment equipment selected by the landfill operator. Thus, charges for disposal and expected revenues from secondary raw materials can be assessed. Furthermore, investment, personnel, operation, servicing and insurance costs are assessed and displayed, based on the selected mobile processing procedure and its throughput, among other things. For clarity, the simulation model is described in this article using the example of a real Austrian sanitary landfill. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. A simulation model for material accounting systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulter, C.A.; Thomas, K.E.

    1987-01-01

    A general-purpose model that was developed to simulate the operation of a chemical processing facility for nuclear materials has been extended to describe material measurement and accounting procedures as well. The model now provides descriptors for material balance areas, a large class of measurement instrument types and their associated measurement errors for various classes of materials, the measurement instruments themselves with their individual calibration schedules, and material balance closures. Delayed receipt of measurement results (as for off-line analytical chemistry assay), with interim use of a provisional measurement value, can be accurately represented. The simulation model can be used to estimate inventory difference variances for processing areas that do not operate at steady state, to evaluate the timeliness of measurement information, to determine process impacts of measurement requirements, and to evaluate the effectiveness of diversion-detection algorithms. Such information is usually difficult to obtain by other means. Use of the measurement simulation model is illustrated by applying it to estimate inventory difference variances for two material balance area structures of a fictitious nuclear material processing line

  9. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  10. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE's research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies

  11. Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

  12. Economic modeling of fault tolerant flight control systems in commercial applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finelli, G. B.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the current development of a comprehensive model which will supply the assessment and analysis capability to investigate the economic viability of Fault Tolerant Flight Control Systems (FTFCS) for commercial aircraft of the 1990's and beyond. An introduction to the unique attributes of fault tolerance and how they will influence aircraft operations and consequent airline costs and benefits is presented. Specific modeling issues and elements necessary for accurate assessment of all costs affected by ownership and operation of FTFCS are delineated. Trade-off factors are presented, aimed at exposing economically optimal realizations of system implementations, resource allocation, and operating policies. A trade-off example is furnished to graphically display some of the analysis capabilities of the comprehensive simulation model now being developed.

  13. NUMERICAL MODEL APPLICATION IN ROWING SIMULATOR DESIGN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Chmátal

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research was to carry out a hydraulic design of rowing/sculling and paddling simulator. Nowadays there are two main approaches in the simulator design. The first one includes a static water with no artificial movement and counts on specially cut oars to provide the same resistance in the water. The second approach, on the other hand uses pumps or similar devices to force the water to circulate but both of the designs share many problems. Such problems are affecting already built facilities and can be summarized as unrealistic feeling, unwanted turbulent flow and bad velocity profile. Therefore, the goal was to design a new rowing simulator that would provide nature-like conditions for the racers and provide an unmatched experience. In order to accomplish this challenge, it was decided to use in-depth numerical modeling to solve the hydraulic problems. The general measures for the design were taken in accordance with space availability of the simulator ́s housing. The entire research was coordinated with other stages of the construction using BIM. The detailed geometry was designed using a numerical model in Ansys Fluent and parametric auto-optimization tools which led to minimum negative hydraulic phenomena and decreased investment and operational costs due to the decreased hydraulic losses in the system.

  14. eShopper modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrushin, Valery A.

    2001-03-01

    The advent of e-commerce gives an opportunity to shift the paradigm of customer communication into a highly interactive mode. The new generation of commercial Web servers, such as the Blue Martini's server, combines the collection of data on a customer behavior with real-time processing and dynamic tailoring of a feedback page. The new opportunities for direct product marketing and cross selling are arriving. The key problem is what kind of information do we need to achieve these goals, or in other words, how do we model the customer? The paper is devoted to customer modeling and simulation. The focus is on modeling an individual customer. The model is based on the customer's transaction data, click stream data, and demographics. The model includes the hierarchical profile of a customer's preferences to different types of products and brands; consumption models for the different types of products; the current focus, trends, and stochastic models for time intervals between purchases; product affinity models; and some generalized features, such as purchasing power, sensitivity to advertising, price sensitivity, etc. This type of model is used for predicting the date of the next visit, overall spending, and spending for different types of products and brands. For some type of stores (for example, a supermarket) and stable customers, it is possible to forecast the shopping lists rather accurately. The forecasting techniques are discussed. The forecasting results can be used for on- line direct marketing, customer retention, and inventory management. The customer model can also be used as a generative model for simulating the customer's purchasing behavior in different situations and for estimating customer's features.

  15. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  16. Economic value added model upon conditions of banking company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Kašparovská

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The content of this article is the application of the economic value added model (EVA upon the conditions of a banking company. Due to the character of banking business, which is in a different structure of financial sheet, it is not possible to use the standard model EVA for this banking company. The base of this article is the outlined of basic principles of the EVA mode in a non-banking company. Basic specified banking activity dissimilarities are analysed and a directed methodology adjustment of a model such as this, so that it is possible to use it for a banking company.

  17. Mars Colony in situ resource utilization: An integrated architecture and economics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert; Fradet, René; Do, Sydney; Saydam, Serkan; Tapia-Cortez, Carlos; Dempster, Andrew G.; Coulton, Jeff

    2017-09-01

    This paper reports on our effort to develop an ensemble of specialized models to explore the commercial potential of mining water/ice on Mars in support of a Mars Colony. This ensemble starts with a formal systems architecting framework to describe a Mars Colony and capture its artifacts' parameters and technical attributes. The resulting database is then linked to a variety of ;downstream; analytic models. In particular, we integrated an extraction process (i.e., ;mining;) model, a simulation of the colony's environmental control and life support infrastructure known as HabNet, and a risk-based economics model. The mining model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. This model computes the production rate as a function of the systems' technical parameters and the local Mars environment. HabNet simulates the fundamental sustainability relationships associated with establishing and maintaining the colony's population. The economics model brings together market information, investment and operating costs, along with measures of market uncertainty and Monte Carlo techniques, with the objective of determining the profitability of commercial water/ice in situ mining operations. All told, over 50 market and technical parameters can be varied in order to address ;what-if; questions, including colony location.

  18. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  19. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  20. A collision model in plasma particle simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Yanyun; Chang Wenwei; Yin Yan; Yue Zongwu; Cao Lihua; Liu Daqing

    2000-01-01

    In order to offset the collisional effects reduced by using finite-size particles, β particle clouds are used in particle simulation codes (β is the ratio of charge or mass of modeling particles to real ones). The method of impulse approximation (strait line orbit approximation) is used to analyze the scattering cross section of β particle clouds plasmas. The authors can obtain the relation of the value of a and β and scattering cross section (a is the radius of β particle cloud). By using this relation the authors can determine the value of a and β so that the collisional effects of the modeling system is correspondent with the real one. The authors can also adjust the values of a and β so that the authors can enhance or reduce the collisional effects fictitiously. The results of simulation are in good agreement with the theoretical ones