Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.
Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip
2015-12-01
Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.
Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore
2006-12-01
A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.
Economic impact analysis for global warming: Sensitivity analysis for cost and benefit estimates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ierland, E.C. van; Derksen, L.
1994-01-01
Proper policies for the prevention or mitigation of the effects of global warming require profound analysis of the costs and benefits of alternative policy strategies. Given the uncertainty about the scientific aspects of the process of global warming, in this paper a sensitivity analysis for the impact of various estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse gas reduction strategies is carried out to analyze the potential social and economic impacts of climate change
How often do sensitivity analyses for economic parameters change cost-utility analysis conclusions?
Schackman, Bruce R; Gold, Heather Taffet; Stone, Patricia W; Neumann, Peter J
2004-01-01
There is limited evidence about the extent to which sensitivity analysis has been used in the cost-effectiveness literature. Sensitivity analyses for health-related QOL (HR-QOL), cost and discount rate economic parameters are of particular interest because they measure the effects of methodological and estimation uncertainties. To investigate the use of sensitivity analyses in the pharmaceutical cost-utility literature in order to test whether a change in economic parameters could result in a different conclusion regarding the cost effectiveness of the intervention analysed. Cost-utility analyses of pharmaceuticals identified in a prior comprehensive audit (70 articles) were reviewed and further audited. For each base case for which sensitivity analyses were reported (n = 122), up to two sensitivity analyses for HR-QOL (n = 133), cost (n = 99), and discount rate (n = 128) were examined. Article mentions of thresholds for acceptable cost-utility ratios were recorded (total 36). Cost-utility ratios were denominated in US dollars for the year reported in each of the original articles in order to determine whether a different conclusion would have been indicated at the time the article was published. Quality ratings from the original audit for articles where sensitivity analysis results crossed the cost-utility ratio threshold above the base-case result were compared with those that did not. The most frequently mentioned cost-utility thresholds were $US20,000/QALY, $US50,000/QALY, and $US100,000/QALY. The proportions of sensitivity analyses reporting quantitative results that crossed the threshold above the base-case results (or where the sensitivity analysis result was dominated) were 31% for HR-QOL sensitivity analyses, 20% for cost-sensitivity analyses, and 15% for discount-rate sensitivity analyses. Almost half of the discount-rate sensitivity analyses did not report quantitative results. Articles that reported sensitivity analyses where results crossed the cost
Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.
1985-01-01
This paper summarizes a demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis performed on the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2. The study was performed with uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled as part of the MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: 1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques on a health and economic consequence model, 2) to test the computer models which implement the techniques, 3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis, and 4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Demonstration of the applicability of the techniques was the motivation for performing this study; thus, the results should not be taken as a definitive uncertainty analysis of health and economic consequences. Nevertheless, significant insights on health and economic consequence analysis can be drawn from the results of this type of study. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used in this study. LHS generates a multivariate input structure in which all the variables of interest are varied simultaneously and desired correlations between variables are preserved. LHS has been shown to produce estimates of output distribution functions that are comparable with results of larger random samples
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chatzimouratidis, Athanasios I.; Pilavachi, Petros A.
2009-01-01
Technological, economic and sustainability evaluation of power plants by use of the analytic hierarchy process and nine end node criteria for a reference scenario based on subjective criteria weighting has been presented in a previous paper by authors. However, criteria weight variations may substantially modify overall evaluations and rankings of power plants. The current paper presents a sensitivity analysis with four alternative scenarios (sets of criteria weights) compared with the reference scenario. The results show that priority to 'technology and sustainability' favors renewable energy power plants, while priority to 'economic' criteria favors mainly nuclear power plants and less the four types of fossil fuel power plant
Parametric sensitivity analysis for techno-economic parameters in Indian power sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mallah, Subhash; Bansal, N.K.
2011-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is a technique that evaluates the model response to changes in input assumptions. Due to uncertain prices of primary fuels in the world market, Government regulations for sustainability and various other technical parameters there is a need to analyze the techno-economic parameters which play an important role in policy formulations. This paper examines the variations in technical as well as economic parameters that can mostly affect the energy policy of India. MARKAL energy simulation model has been used to analyze the uncertainty in all techno-economic parameters. Various ranges of input parameters are adopted from previous studies. The results show that at lower discount rate coal is the least preferred technology and correspondingly carbon emission reduction. With increased gas and nuclear fuel prices they disappear from the allocations of energy mix.
Parametric sensitivity analysis of an agro-economic model of management of irrigation water
El Ouadi, Ihssan; Ouazar, Driss; El Menyari, Younesse
2015-04-01
The current work aims to build an analysis and decision support tool for policy options concerning the optimal allocation of water resources, while allowing a better reflection on the issue of valuation of water by the agricultural sector in particular. Thus, a model disaggregated by farm type was developed for the rural town of Ait Ben Yacoub located in the east Morocco. This model integrates economic, agronomic and hydraulic data and simulates agricultural gross margin across in this area taking into consideration changes in public policy and climatic conditions, taking into account the competition for collective resources. To identify the model input parameters that influence over the results of the model, a parametric sensitivity analysis is performed by the "One-Factor-At-A-Time" approach within the "Screening Designs" method. Preliminary results of this analysis show that among the 10 parameters analyzed, 6 parameters affect significantly the objective function of the model, it is in order of influence: i) Coefficient of crop yield response to water, ii) Average daily gain in weight of livestock, iii) Exchange of livestock reproduction, iv) maximum yield of crops, v) Supply of irrigation water and vi) precipitation. These 6 parameters register sensitivity indexes ranging between 0.22 and 1.28. Those results show high uncertainties on these parameters that can dramatically skew the results of the model or the need to pay particular attention to their estimates. Keywords: water, agriculture, modeling, optimal allocation, parametric sensitivity analysis, Screening Designs, One-Factor-At-A-Time, agricultural policy, climate change.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sundberg, Gunnel
2001-01-01
A deregulation of the electricity market in Europe will result in increased competition among the power-producing companies. They will therefore carefully estimate the financial risk in an investment in new power-producing capability. One part of the risk assessment is to perform a sensitivity analysis. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis using factorial design, resulting in an assessment of the most important technical and economical factors affecting an investment in gas turbine combined cycle and a steam cycle fired by wood chips. The study is performed using a simulation model that optimises the operation of existing power plants and potential new investments to fulfil the desired heat demand. The local utility system analysed is a Swedish district heating system with 655 GWh y -1 heat demand. The conclusion is that to understand which of the technical and economical factors affect the investment, it is not sufficient to investigate the parameters of the studied plant, but also the parameters related to the competing plants. Both the individual effects of the factors and the effect of their interaction should be investigated. For the energy system studied the price of natural gas, price of wood chips and investment cost have the major influence on the profitability of the investment. (Author)
Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.
1984-12-01
The techniques for performing uncertainty/sensitivity analyses compiled as part of the MELCOR program appear to be well suited for use with a health and economic consequence model. Two replicate samples of size 50 gave essentially identical results, indicating that for this case, a Latin hypercube sample of size 50 seems adequate to represent the distribution of results. Though the intent of this study was a demonstration of uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques, a number of insights relevant to health and economic consequence modeling can be gleaned: uncertainties in early deaths are significantly greater than uncertainties in latent cancer deaths; though the magnitude of the source term is the largest source of variation in estimated distributions of early deaths, a number of additional parameters are also important; even with the release fractions for a full SST1, one quarter of the CRAC2 runs gave no early deaths; and comparison of the estimates of mean early deaths for a full SST1 release in this study with those of recent point estimates for similar conditions indicates that the recent estimates may be significant overestimations of early deaths. Estimates of latent cancer deaths, however, are roughly comparable. An analysis of the type described here can provide insights in a number of areas. First, the variability in the results gives an indication of the potential uncertainty associated with the calculations. Second, the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the input variables can be determined. Research efforts can then be concentrated on reducing the uncertainty in the variables which are the largest contributors to uncertainty in results
... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/003741.htm Sensitivity analysis To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Sensitivity analysis determines the effectiveness of antibiotics against microorganisms (germs) ...
Techno-economic evaluation of small hydro power plants in Greece: a complete sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kaldellis, J.K.; Vlachou, D.S.; Korbakis, G.
2005-01-01
Hydropower has by far been the most mature renewable energy resource used for electricity generation in our planet. Recently, the investors' interest was whipped up by the mass development of small hydropower (SHP) stations, as they are the most prosperous for additional hydropower penetration in developed electricity markets. In Greece, the increasing interest for building SHP stations got off the ground since 1994. Ever since, an enormous number of requests keep piling up in the Greek Regulatory Authority of Energy and the Ministry of Development, with the object of creating new SHP stations of total capacity over 600 MW. The present work is concentrated on the systematic investigation of the techno-economic viability of SHP stations. The study is concluded by a sensitivity analysis properly adapted for the local market financial situation, in order to enlighten the decision makers on the expected profitability of the capital to be invested. According to the results obtained, the predicted internal rate of return (IRR) values are greater than 18% for most SHP cases analysed. Finally, as per the sensitivity analysis carried out, the installation capacity factor, the local market electricity price annual escalation rate and the reduced first installation cost are found to be the parameters that mostly affect the viability of similar ventures
Economics of climate change : sensitivity analysis of social cost of carbon
Torniainen, Sami
2016-01-01
Social cost of carbon (SCC) is the key concept in the economics of climate change. It measures the economic cost of climate impacts. SCC has influence on how beneficial it is to prevent climate change: if the value of SCC increases, investments to low-carbon technology become more attractive and profitable. This paper examines the sensitivity of two important assumptions that affect to SCC: the choice of a discount rate and time horizon. Using the integrated assessment model, ...
Sensitivity analysis of socio-economic values of time for public transport projects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Jonas Lohmann Elkjær; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker
2007-01-01
The socio-economic time benefits of two light rail projects in Copenhagen are investigated using three different sets of values of time. The first set is the one the Ministry of Transport recommends for use in socio-economic analysis in Denmark; this is used as basis for comparison with the two...... recommended by the Ministry of Transport. Differentiated in-vehicle values prove to generate an even higher increase in time benefits, but vary depending on the projects....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kotsyuba Oleksiy S.
2018-02-01
Full Text Available The article is concerned with the methodology of economic substantiation of real investments in case of considerable lack of information on possible fluctuations of initial parameters and the resulting risk. The analysis of sensitivity as the main instrument for accounting the risk in the indicated problem situation is the focus of the presented research. In the publication, on the basis of the apparatus of interval mathematics, a set of models for comparative estimation of economic attractiveness (efficiency of alternative investment projects in conditions of uncertainty and risk is formulated, using the sensitivity analysis. The developed instrumentarium assumes both mono- and poly-interval version of the sensitivity analysis. As the risk component in the constructed models is used: in some – values of the specially developed sensitivity coefficient, in others – the worst values, which are based on the interval estimations of the partial criteria of efficiency. The sensitivity coefficient, according to the approach proposed in the publication, is the ratio of the target semi-range of variation to the increase (economy of efficiency, which is provided when the basic level of the analyzed partial criterion of economic attractiveness in comparison with some of its threshold (limit value is being reached.
Tchouaket, Eric; Dubois, Carl-Ardy; D'Amour, Danielle
2017-07-01
The aim of this study was to assess the economic burden of nurse-sensitive adverse events in 22 acute-care units in Quebec by estimating excess hospital-related costs and calculating resulting additional hospital days. Recent changes in the worldwide economic and financial contexts have made the cost of patient safety a topical issue. Yet, our knowledge about the economic burden of safety of nursing care is quite limited in Canada in general and Quebec in particular. Retrospective analysis of charts of 2699 patients hospitalized between July 2008 - August 2009 for at least 2 days of 30-day periods in 22 medical-surgical units in 11 hospitals in Quebec. Data were collected from September 2009 to August 2010. Nurse-sensitive adverse events analysed were pressure ulcers, falls, medication administration errors, pneumonia and urinary tract infections. Descriptive statistics identified numbers of cases for each nurse-sensitive adverse event. A literature analysis was used to estimate excess median hospital-related costs of treatments with these nurse-sensitive adverse events. Costs were calculated in 2014 Canadian dollars. Additional hospital days were estimated by comparing lengths of stay of patients with nurse-sensitive adverse events with those of similar patients without nurse-sensitive adverse events. This study found that five adverse events considered nurse-sensitive caused nearly 1300 additional hospital days for 166 patients and generated more than Canadian dollars 600,000 in excess treatment costs. The results present the financial consequences of the nurse-sensitive adverse events. Government should invest in prevention and in improvements to care quality and patient safety. Managers need to strengthen safety processes in their facilities and nurses should take greater precautions. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
None
1980-06-01
The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Carvalho, Ana; Gernaey, Krist V.
2017-01-01
In this work, we investigate the impact of the expected price volatility and correlations on the overall economic assessment of lactic acid production from crude glycerol. In particular, the goals of this study are three-fold: (i) to understand how uncertainty in the inputs propagates to the model...... outputs; (ii) to understand the effect of the degree of pairwise correlation between input uncertainties on each other and on the outputs from the economic model (Net Present Value); and lastly, (iii) to estimate the first-order as well as independent sensitivity indices so as to identify which...... of the input uncertainties in the economic analysis affect the estimated NPV the most. To this end, we implemented algorithms in Matlab (R2015a) based on Monte Carlo sampling with permutation using Latin Hypercube Sampling with Iman Conover correlation control (Sin et al., 2009).The results have shown...
Sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic water pumping systems: Energetic and economic studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yahyaoui, Imene; Atieh, Ahmad; Serna, Alvaro; Tadeo, Fernando
2017-01-01
obtained size is studied and compared with systems that include a diesel generator, and a diesel generator- photovoltaic panels, respectively, using climatic and economic parameters in three countries: Tunisia, Spain and Jordan. The economic analysis for these water pumping systems showed that photovoltaic- batteries/Pump system is the optimum solution in the three countries. However, the initial cost of the system can be recuperated faster in Spain than in Tunisia and Jordan due to high prices of the diesel these two countries.
Estrada, José M; Kraakman, N J R Bart; Lebrero, Raquel; Muñoz, Raúl
2012-01-01
The sensitivity of the economics of the five most commonly applied odour abatement technologies (biofiltration, biotrickling filtration, activated carbon adsorption, chemical scrubbing and a hybrid technology consisting of a biotrickling filter coupled with carbon adsorption) towards design parameters and commodity prices was evaluated. Besides, the influence of the geographical location on the Net Present Value calculated for a 20 years lifespan (NPV20) of each technology and its robustness towards typical process fluctuations and operational upsets were also assessed. This comparative analysis showed that biological techniques present lower operating costs (up to 6 times) and lower sensitivity than their physical/chemical counterparts, with the packing material being the key parameter affecting their operating costs (40-50% of the total operating costs). The use of recycled or partially treated water (e.g. secondary effluent in wastewater treatment plants) offers an opportunity to significantly reduce costs in biological techniques. Physical/chemical technologies present a high sensitivity towards H2S concentration, which is an important drawback due to the fluctuating nature of malodorous emissions. The geographical analysis evidenced high NPV20 variations around the world for all the technologies evaluated, but despite the differences in wage and price levels, biofiltration and biotrickling filtration are always the most cost-efficient alternatives (NPV20). When, in an economical evaluation, the robustness is as relevant as the overall costs (NPV20), the hybrid technology would move up next to BTF as the most preferred technologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Anderson, B. J.; Gaddipati, M.; Nyayapathi, L.
2008-12-01
This paper presents a parametric study on production rates of natural gas from gas hydrates by the method of depressurization, using CMG STARS. Seven factors/parameters were considered as perturbations from a base-case hydrate reservoir description based on Problem 7 of the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison Study led by the Department of Energy and the USGS. This reservoir is modeled after the inferred properties of the hydrate deposit at the Prudhoe Bay L-106 site. The included sensitivity variables were hydrate saturation, pressure (depth), temperature, bottom-hole pressure of the production well, free water saturation, intrinsic rock permeability, and porosity. A two-level (L=2) Plackett-Burman experimental design was used to study the relative effects of these factors. The measured variable was the discounted cumulative gas production. The discount rate chosen was 15%, resulting in the gas contribution to the net present value of a reservoir. Eight different designs were developed for conducting sensitivity analysis and the effects of the parameters on the real and discounted production rates will be discussed. The breakeven price in various cases and the dependence of the breakeven price on the production parameters is given in the paper. As expected, initial reservoir temperature has the strongest positive effect on the productivity of a hydrate deposit and the bottom-hole pressure in the production well has the strongest negative dependence. Also resulting in a positive correlation is the intrinsic permeability and the initial free water of the formation. Negative effects were found for initial hydrate saturation (at saturations greater than 50% of the pore space) and the reservoir porosity. These negative effects are related to the available sensible heat of the reservoir, with decreasing productivity due to decreasing available sensible heat. Finally, we conclude that for the base case reservoir, the break-even price (BEP
Models for Risk Aggregation and Sensitivity Analysis: An Application to Bank Economic Capital
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hulusi Inanoglu
2009-12-01
Full Text Available A challenge in enterprise risk measurement for diversified financial institutions is developing a coherent approach to aggregating different risk types. This has been motivated by rapid financial innovation, developments in supervisory standards (Basel 2 and recent financial turmoil. The main risks faced - market, credit and operational – have distinct distributional properties, and historically have been modeled in differing frameworks. We contribute to the modeling effort by providing tools and insights to practitioners and regulators. First, we extend the scope of the analysis to liquidity and interest rate risk, having Basel Pillar II of Basel implications. Second, we utilize data from major banking institutions’ loss experience from supervisory call reports, which allows us to explore the impact of business mix and inter-risk correlations on total risk. Third, we estimate and compare alternative established frameworks for risk aggregation (including copula models on the same data-sets across banks, comparing absolute total risk measures (Value-at-Risk – VaR and proportional diversification benefits-PDB, goodness-of-fit (GOF of the model as data as well as the variability of the VaR estimate with respect to sampling error in parameter. This benchmarking and sensitivity analysis suggests that practitioners consider implementing a simple non-parametric methodology (empirical copula simulation- ECS in order to quantify integrated risk, in that it is found to be more conservatism and stable than the other models. We observe that ECS produces 20% to 30% higher VaR relative to the standard Gaussian copula simulation (GCS, while the variance-covariance approximation (VCA is much lower. ECS yields the highest PDBs than other methodologies (127% to 243%, while Archimadean Gumbel copula simulation (AGCS is the lowest (10-21%. Across the five largest banks we fail to find the effect of business mix to exert a directionally consistent impact on
Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates.
Chang, Angela Y; Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K; Resch, Stephen C
2017-06-01
In "Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation," The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well-being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent. The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations. We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY. Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.
Economic and Time-Sensitive Issues Surrounding CCS: A Policy Analysis.
Maddali, Vijay; Tularam, Gurudeo Anand; Glynn, Patrick
2015-08-04
Are the existing global policies on combating global warming via the carbon capture and storage (CCS) method significant enough to curtail the temperature rise on time? We argue that it is already too late to have any reliance on CCS. The current status of CCS is that it is plagued by technical uncertainties, infrastructure, financial, and regulatory issues. The technology is far from maturity and, hence, commercialization. Simulations conducted in this work suggest that the relevance of CCS is completely defied if the annual emission growth rate is in excess of 2% between the years of 2015 and 2040. At such a growth rate, the annual emissions reduction between 2040 and 2100 will need to be in the vicinity of 5.5% by the year 2100. Considering an average annual emissions growth rate of 2.5% over the past decade, it seems unlikely that the emissions could be contained to a 2% growth level. CCS in its current shape and form is at odds with the economics of its implementation and the time in hand with which to play a significant role in a carbon mitigation strategy. There is an urgent need to rethink policies and strategies to combat global warming to at least some degree.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.
1979-03-01
The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U 3 O 8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41
Shams, Bilal; Yao, Jun; Zhang, Kai; Zhang, Lei
2017-08-01
Gas condensate reservoirs usually exhibit complex flow behaviors because of propagation response of pressure drop from the wellbore into the reservoir. When reservoir pressure drops below the dew point in two phase flow of gas and condensate, the accumulation of large condensate amount occurs in the gas condensate reservoirs. Usually, the saturation of condensate accumulation in volumetric gas condensate reservoirs is lower than the critical condensate saturation that causes trapping of large amount of condensate in reservoir pores. Trapped condensate often is lost due to condensate accumulation-condensate blockage courtesy of high molecular weight, heavy condensate residue. Recovering lost condensate most economically and optimally has always been a challenging goal. Thus, gas cycling is applied to alleviate such a drastic loss in resources. In gas injection, the flooding pattern, injection timing and injection duration are key parameters to study an efficient EOR scenario in order to recover lost condensate. This work contains sensitivity analysis on different parameters to generate an accurate investigation about the effects on performance of different injection scenarios in homogeneous gas condensate system. In this paper, starting time of gas cycling and injection period are the parameters used to influence condensate recovery of a five-spot well pattern which has an injection pressure constraint of 3000 psi and production wells are constraint at 500 psi min. BHP. Starting injection times of 1 month, 4 months and 9 months after natural depletion areapplied in the first study. The second study is conducted by varying injection duration. Three durations are selected: 100 days, 400 days and 900 days. In miscible gas injection, miscibility and vaporization of condensate by injected gas is more efficient mechanism for condensate recovery. From this study, it is proven that the application of gas cycling on five-spot well pattern greatly enhances condensate recovery
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Hua; Ozkan, Umit S.
2010-01-01
In this study, the hydrogen selling price from ethanol steam reforming has been estimated for two different production scenarios in the United States, i.e. central production (150,000 kg H 2 /day) and distributed (forecourt) production (1500 kg H 2 /day), based on a process flowchart generated by Aspen Plus registered including downstream purification steps and economic analysis model template published by the U.S Department of Energy (DOE). The effect of several processing parameters as well as catalyst properties on the hydrogen selling price has been evaluated. 2.69/kg is estimated as the selling price for a central production process of 150,000 kg H 2 /day and 4.27/kg for a distributed hydrogen production process at a scale of 1500 kg H 2 /day. Among the parameters investigated through sensitivity analyses, ethanol feedstock cost, catalyst cost, and catalytic performance are found to play a significant role on determining the final hydrogen selling price. (author)
Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu
2013-01-01
The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...
Andronis, L; Barton, P; Bryan, S
2009-06-01
To determine how we define good practice in sensitivity analysis in general and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in particular, and to what extent it has been adhered to in the independent economic evaluations undertaken for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) over recent years; to establish what policy impact sensitivity analysis has in the context of NICE, and policy-makers' views on sensitivity analysis and uncertainty, and what use is made of sensitivity analysis in policy decision-making. Three major electronic databases, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, were searched from inception to February 2008. The meaning of 'good practice' in the broad area of sensitivity analysis was explored through a review of the literature. An audit was undertaken of the 15 most recent NICE multiple technology appraisal judgements and their related reports to assess how sensitivity analysis has been undertaken by independent academic teams for NICE. A review of the policy and guidance documents issued by NICE aimed to assess the policy impact of the sensitivity analysis and the PSA in particular. Qualitative interview data from NICE Technology Appraisal Committee members, collected as part of an earlier study, were also analysed to assess the value attached to the sensitivity analysis components of the economic analyses conducted for NICE. All forms of sensitivity analysis, notably both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, have their supporters and their detractors. Practice in relation to univariate sensitivity analysis is highly variable, with considerable lack of clarity in relation to the methods used and the basis of the ranges employed. In relation to PSA, there is a high level of variability in the form of distribution used for similar parameters, and the justification for such choices is rarely given. Virtually all analyses failed to consider correlations within the PSA, and this is an area of concern
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lund, Henrik; Sorknæs, Peter; Mathiesen, Brian Vad
2018-01-01
of electricity, which have been introduced in recent decades. These uncertainties pose a challenge to the design and assessment of future energy strategies and investments, especially in the economic assessment of renewable energy versus business-as-usual scenarios based on fossil fuels. From a methodological...... point of view, the typical way of handling this challenge has been to predict future prices as accurately as possible and then conduct a sensitivity analysis. This paper includes a historical analysis of such predictions, leading to the conclusion that they are almost always wrong. Not only...... are they wrong in their prediction of price levels, but also in the sense that they always seem to predict a smooth growth or decrease. This paper introduces a new method and reports the results of applying it on the case of energy scenarios for Denmark. The method implies the expectation of fluctuating fuel...
IRIS economics. A sensitivity review
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miller, Keith
2003-01-01
IRIS (International Reactor Innovative and Secure) is a small to medium advanced light water cooled modular reactor being developed by an international consortium led by Westinghouse/BNFL. This reactor design is specifically aimed at utilities looking to install new (or replacement) nuclear capacity to match market demands, or at developing countries for their distributed power needs. To determine the optimal configuration for IRIS, analysis was undertaken to establish Generation Costs ($/MWh) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR %) to the Utility at alternative power ratings. This was then combined with global market projections for electricity demand out to 2030, segmented into key geographical regions. Finally this information is brought together to form insights, conclusions and recommendations regarding the optimal design. The resultant analysis reveals an optimum power rating for a single module of 335 MWe, with a construction period of 3 years or less and a minimum plant life of 60 years. Individual modules can be installed in a staggered fashion (3 equivalent to 1005 MWe) or built in pairs (2 sets of twin units' equivalent to 1340 MWe). Uncertainty in Market Clearing Price for electricity, Annual Operating Costs and Construction Costs primarily influence lifetime Net Present Values (NPV) and hence IRR % for Utilities. Generation Costs in addition are also influenced by Fuel Costs, Plant Output, Plant Availability and Plant Capacity Factor. Therefore for a site based on 3 single modules, located in North America, Generations Costs of 28.5 $/MWh are required to achieve an IRR of 20%, a level which enables IRIS to compete with all other forms of electricity production. Plant size is critical to commercial success. Sustained (lifetime) high factors for Plant Output, Availability and Capacity Factor are required to achieve a competitive advantage. Modularity offers Utilities the option to match their investments with market conditions, adding additional capacity as
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quan, B.L.
1980-01-01
A general sensitivity analysis system for analyzing the effects of uncertainity in nuclear data and reactor parameters on fuel cycle economics, resources and physics has been developed. The sensitivity analysis has been performed on various reactor systems and cycles such as the thorium cycles, plutonium cycles, CANDU reactor fuel cycles and alternate once-through LWR cycles such as the 18 month cycle. Sensitivity coefficients were generated for a variety of materials pertinent to the LWR fuel cycle using a series of fast running codes developed for this purpose and running on a local PDP-15 computer. Their relative order of importance were assessed and the reasons explaining this difference were examined. This work is a result of EPRI project in determining the data needs for the LWR industry and should be valuable in identifying areas in which data improvements are worthwhile
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael
2005-01-01
As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salleh N. A. S.
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In order to encourage the eco-friendly technologies in transportation sector, the reliance on fuel need to be reduced and the use of renewable energy (RE technology as energy source are widely explored by researchers. Thus, this study focus on the feasibility of developing grid-connected renewable energy electric boat charging station for the fishermen in Terengganu using simulation-based method by HOMER software. Five year solar radiation and wind speed data were collected at Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (UNISZA weather station. For load profile, the information about fishing activities and the amount of subsidy spent by the government were obtained from the interview session with the fishermen and validated with Lembaga Kemajuan Ikan Malaysia (LKIM. The results acquired are compared between grid-only and grid-connected RE systems in term of net present cost (NPC, operational cost and payback period. A sensitivity analysis is done to find the minimal Feed-in Tariff (FiT rate that can be implemented in order to encourage the use of RE system in this sector. Then, the relationship between FiT and NPC, payback period and emission of pollutants are analyzed. At current FiT rates RM 0.813/kWh, hybrid grid-PV system manages to achieve its optimal in generating high income from selling the power to the grid with convincing amount of electricity production and short payback period. It is concluded at minimum RM 0.56/kWh of FiT, the grid-connected RE system is possible to be developed because its performance shows better outcome compared to the grid-only system.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cumberland, Riley M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Williams, Kent Alan [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Jarrell, Joshua J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Joseph, III, Robert Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2016-12-01
This report evaluates how the economic environment (i.e., discount rate, inflation rate, escalation rate) can impact previously estimated differences in lifecycle costs between an integrated waste management system with an interim storage facility (ISF) and a similar system without an ISF.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Iulian N. BUJOREANU
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis represents such a well known and deeply analyzed subject that anyone to enter the field feels like not being able to add anything new. Still, there are so many facets to be taken into consideration.The paper introduces the reader to the various ways sensitivity analysis is implemented and the reasons for which it has to be implemented in most analyses in the decision making processes. Risk analysis is of outmost importance in dealing with resource allocation and is presented at the beginning of the paper as the initial cause to implement sensitivity analysis. Different views and approaches are added during the discussion about sensitivity analysis so that the reader develops an as thoroughly as possible opinion on the use and UTILITY of the sensitivity analysis. Finally, a round-up conclusion brings us to the question of the possibility of generating the future and analyzing it before it unfolds so that, when it happens it brings less uncertainty.
Economic analysis of fusion breeders
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delene, J.G.
1985-01-01
This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shams Bilal
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Gas condensate reservoirs usually exhibit complex flow behaviors because of propagation response of pressure drop from the wellbore into the reservoir. When reservoir pressure drops below the dew point in two phase flow of gas and condensate, the accumulation of large condensate amount occurs in the gas condensate reservoirs. Usually, the saturation of condensate accumulation in volumetric gas condensate reservoirs is lower than the critical condensate saturation that causes trapping of large amount of condensate in reservoir pores. Trapped condensate often is lost due to condensate accumulation-condensate blockage courtesy of high molecular weight, heavy condensate residue. Recovering lost condensate most economically and optimally has always been a challenging goal. Thus, gas cycling is applied to alleviate such a drastic loss in resources.
Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.
Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J
2016-05-01
Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.
Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William
2013-01-01
An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.
Interference and Sensitivity Analysis.
VanderWeele, Tyler J; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Halloran, M Elizabeth
2014-11-01
Causal inference with interference is a rapidly growing area. The literature has begun to relax the "no-interference" assumption that the treatment received by one individual does not affect the outcomes of other individuals. In this paper we briefly review the literature on causal inference in the presence of interference when treatments have been randomized. We then consider settings in which causal effects in the presence of interference are not identified, either because randomization alone does not suffice for identification, or because treatment is not randomized and there may be unmeasured confounders of the treatment-outcome relationship. We develop sensitivity analysis techniques for these settings. We describe several sensitivity analysis techniques for the infectiousness effect which, in a vaccine trial, captures the effect of the vaccine of one person on protecting a second person from infection even if the first is infected. We also develop two sensitivity analysis techniques for causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding which generalize analogous techniques when interference is absent. These two techniques for unmeasured confounding are compared and contrasted.
Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.
Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K
2011-09-01
Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
ALMR deployment economic analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.
1993-06-01
This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment
Chemical kinetic functional sensitivity analysis: Elementary sensitivities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Demiralp, M.; Rabitz, H.
1981-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is considered for kinetics problems defined in the space--time domain. This extends an earlier temporal Green's function method to handle calculations of elementary functional sensitivities deltau/sub i//deltaα/sub j/ where u/sub i/ is the ith species concentration and α/sub j/ is the jth system parameter. The system parameters include rate constants, diffusion coefficients, initial conditions, boundary conditions, or any other well-defined variables in the kinetic equations. These parameters are generally considered to be functions of position and/or time. Derivation of the governing equations for the sensitivities and the Green's funciton are presented. The physical interpretation of the Green's function and sensitivities is given along with a discussion of the relation of this work to earlier research
MOVES regional level sensitivity analysis
2012-01-01
The MOVES Regional Level Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to increase understanding of the operations of the MOVES Model in regional emissions analysis and to highlight the following: : the relative sensitivity of selected MOVES Model input paramet...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ostafew, C. [Azure Dynamics Corp., Toronto, ON (Canada)
2010-07-01
This presentation included a sensitivity analysis of electric vehicle components on overall efficiency. The presentation provided an overview of drive cycles and discussed the major contributors to range in terms of rolling resistance; aerodynamic drag; motor efficiency; and vehicle mass. Drive cycles that were presented included: New York City Cycle (NYCC); urban dynamometer drive cycle; and US06. A summary of the findings were presented for each of the major contributors. Rolling resistance was found to have a balanced effect on each drive cycle and proportional to range. In terms of aerodynamic drive, there was a large effect on US06 range. A large effect was also found on NYCC range in terms of motor efficiency and vehicle mass. figs.
Evaluation of undrilled prospects. Sensitivity to economic and geological factors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hermanrud, C.; Abrahamsen, K.; Vollset, J.; Nordahl, S.; Jourdan, C.
1996-01-01
predictable to a greater accuracy than 40 % at early stages of exploration. This, and the fluctuations in oil price, adds to the uncertainty of early economic start-up. The operational and investment costs are not generally predictable to a greater accuracy than 40 % at early stages of exploration. This, and the fluctuations in oil price, adds to the uncertainty of early economic calculations. Sensitivity analysis of calculated net present values for exploration prospects shows that the investigated prospects are sensitive to many different factors, and that a separate sensitivity analysis for each prospect is needed. 15 refs
Real analysis with economic applications
Ok, Efe A
2011-01-01
There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimization, correspondences, linear and nonlinear functional analysis, fixed-point theory, dynamic programming, and calculus of variations. Efe Ok complements the mathematical development with applications that provide concise introductions to various topics from economic theory, including individual decision theory and games, welfare economics, information theory, general equilibrium and finance, and intertemporal economics. Moreover, a...
Sensitivity and stability in dynamical economic systems
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Sladký, Karel; Kodera, Jan; Vošvrda, Miloslav
1999-01-01
Roč. 6, č. 9 (1999), s. 1-10 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/96/0420; GA ČR GA402/96/1440 Grant - others:GA AV(CZ) IAA2075802 Program:IA Institutional research plan: AV0Z1075907 Subject RIV: AH - Economics
Syntactical Analysis of Economics Textbooks.
Wilcox, George K.
An analysis of the syntax of economics textbooks was undertaken to (1) provide real-language examples of the difficult grammatical structures being taught in an advanced economics reading course, and (2) construct a factual database of the nature of economics textbooks. Five texts representative of those typically used in introductory economics…
Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.
1991-01-01
A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters
Introduction to Economic Analysis
R. Preston McAfee
2005-01-01
This book presents introductory economics ("principles") material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. M...
Life extension economic analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Smithling, A.P.
1992-01-01
Life extension economic analyses of fossil fueled power plants need the development of consistent methods which consider the capital costs associated with component replacement or repair and estimates of normal station capital expenditures over the units remaining life. In order to link capital and production costs, Niagra Mohawk Power Corp. develops most and worst cases. A most case includes capital components that would definitely need replacement or modification for life extension. The worst case scenario contains must case capital costs plus various components which may need replacement or modification. In addition, two forecasted conditions are used, base case capacity and low capacity
Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B.
2006-12-01
It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics
Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B
2006-12-15
It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.
Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu
1980-09-01
This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)
Maternal sensitivity: a concept analysis.
Shin, Hyunjeong; Park, Young-Joo; Ryu, Hosihn; Seomun, Gyeong-Ae
2008-11-01
The aim of this paper is to report a concept analysis of maternal sensitivity. Maternal sensitivity is a broad concept encompassing a variety of interrelated affective and behavioural caregiving attributes. It is used interchangeably with the terms maternal responsiveness or maternal competency, with no consistency of use. There is a need to clarify the concept of maternal sensitivity for research and practice. A search was performed on the CINAHL and Ovid MEDLINE databases using 'maternal sensitivity', 'maternal responsiveness' and 'sensitive mothering' as key words. The searches yielded 54 records for the years 1981-2007. Rodgers' method of evolutionary concept analysis was used to analyse the material. Four critical attributes of maternal sensitivity were identified: (a) dynamic process involving maternal abilities; (b) reciprocal give-and-take with the infant; (c) contingency on the infant's behaviour and (d) quality of maternal behaviours. Maternal identity and infant's needs and cues are antecedents for these attributes. The consequences are infant's comfort, mother-infant attachment and infant development. In addition, three positive affecting factors (social support, maternal-foetal attachment and high self-esteem) and three negative affecting factors (maternal depression, maternal stress and maternal anxiety) were identified. A clear understanding of the concept of maternal sensitivity could be useful for developing ways to enhance maternal sensitivity and to maximize the developmental potential of infants. Knowledge of the attributes of maternal sensitivity identified in this concept analysis may be helpful for constructing measuring items or dimensions.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)
1997-12-31
The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Salvesen, F; Sandgren, J [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)
1998-12-31
The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia
Global optimization and sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, D.G.
1990-01-01
A new direction for the analysis of nonlinear models of nuclear systems is suggested to overcome fundamental limitations of sensitivity analysis and optimization methods currently prevalent in nuclear engineering usage. This direction is toward a global analysis of the behavior of the respective system as its design parameters are allowed to vary over their respective design ranges. Presented is a methodology for global analysis that unifies and extends the current scopes of sensitivity analysis and optimization by identifying all the critical points (maxima, minima) and solution bifurcation points together with corresponding sensitivities at any design point of interest. The potential applicability of this methodology is illustrated with test problems involving multiple critical points and bifurcations and comprising both equality and inequality constraints
The economics of motion perception and invariants of visual sensitivity.
Gepshtein, Sergei; Tyukin, Ivan; Kubovy, Michael
2007-06-21
Neural systems face the challenge of optimizing their performance with limited resources, just as economic systems do. Here, we use tools of neoclassical economic theory to explore how a frugal visual system should use a limited number of neurons to optimize perception of motion. The theory prescribes that vision should allocate its resources to different conditions of stimulation according to the degree of balance between measurement uncertainties and stimulus uncertainties. We find that human vision approximately follows the optimal prescription. The equilibrium theory explains why human visual sensitivity is distributed the way it is and why qualitatively different regimes of apparent motion are observed at different speeds. The theory offers a new normative framework for understanding the mechanisms of visual sensitivity at the threshold of visibility and above the threshold and predicts large-scale changes in visual sensitivity in response to changes in the statistics of stimulation and system goals.
Marital dissolution: an economic analysis.
Hunter, K A
1984-01-01
A longitudinal analysis of factors affecting marital dissolution in the United States is presented using data from the Coleman-Rossi Retrospective Life History. Factors considered include labor force participation of both spouses, wage growth, size of family unit, age at marriage, and educational status. The study is based on the economic analysis approach developed by Gary S. Becker and others.
Sensitivity analysis of floating offshore wind farms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Castro-Santos, Laura; Diaz-Casas, Vicente
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Develop a sensitivity analysis of a floating offshore wind farm. • Influence on the life-cycle costs involved in a floating offshore wind farm. • Influence on IRR, NPV, pay-back period, LCOE and cost of power. • Important variables: distance, wind resource, electric tariff, etc. • It helps to investors to take decisions in the future. - Abstract: The future of offshore wind energy will be in deep waters. In this context, the main objective of the present paper is to develop a sensitivity analysis of a floating offshore wind farm. It will show how much the output variables can vary when the input variables are changing. For this purpose two different scenarios will be taken into account: the life-cycle costs involved in a floating offshore wind farm (cost of conception and definition, cost of design and development, cost of manufacturing, cost of installation, cost of exploitation and cost of dismantling) and the most important economic indexes in terms of economic feasibility of a floating offshore wind farm (internal rate of return, net present value, discounted pay-back period, levelized cost of energy and cost of power). Results indicate that the most important variables in economic terms are the number of wind turbines and the distance from farm to shore in the costs’ scenario, and the wind scale parameter and the electric tariff for the economic indexes. This study will help investors to take into account these variables in the development of floating offshore wind farms in the future
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Horwedel, J.E.; Wright, R.Q.; Maerker, R.E.
1990-01-01
A sensitivity analysis of EQ3, a computer code which has been proposed to be used as one link in the overall performance assessment of a national high-level waste repository, has been performed. EQ3 is a geochemical modeling code used to calculate the speciation of a water and its saturation state with respect to mineral phases. The model chosen for the sensitivity analysis is one which is used as a test problem in the documentation of the EQ3 code. Sensitivities are calculated using both the CHAIN and ADGEN options of the GRESS code compiled under G-float FORTRAN on the VAX/VMS and verified by perturbation runs. The analyses were performed with a preliminary Version 1.0 of GRESS which contains several new algorithms that significantly improve the application of ADGEN. Use of ADGEN automates the implementation of the well-known adjoint technique for the efficient calculation of sensitivities of a given response to all the input data. Application of ADGEN to EQ3 results in the calculation of sensitivities of a particular response to 31,000 input parameters in a run time of only 27 times that of the original model. Moreover, calculation of the sensitivities for each additional response increases this factor by only 2.5 percent. This compares very favorably with a running-time factor of 31,000 if direct perturbation runs were used instead. 6 refs., 8 tabs
High order depletion sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Naguib, K.; Adib, M.; Morcos, H.N.
2002-01-01
A high order depletion sensitivity method was applied to calculate the sensitivities of build-up of actinides in the irradiated fuel due to cross-section uncertainties. An iteration method based on Taylor series expansion was applied to construct stationary principle, from which all orders of perturbations were calculated. The irradiated EK-10 and MTR-20 fuels at their maximum burn-up of 25% and 65% respectively were considered for sensitivity analysis. The results of calculation show that, in case of EK-10 fuel (low burn-up), the first order sensitivity was found to be enough to perform an accuracy of 1%. While in case of MTR-20 (high burn-up) the fifth order was found to provide 3% accuracy. A computer code SENS was developed to provide the required calculations
Economic sensitivity of DAW incineration to PVC content
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rossmassler, R.L.
1986-01-01
Economic analyses of the volume reduction of low level radwaste, including the incinerator of Dry Active Waste (DAW), spent resins and filter sludges, are performed using the microcomputer code VOLREDUCER. Based on BWR and PWR data taken from previous EPRI work, the sensitivity of incinerator economics to polyvinyl chloride (PVC) content in DAW is examined. An annual cost penalty associated with the presence of PVC in the waste is formulated, and the sensitivity of this penalty to a variety of parameters is determined. The alternative of sorting out PVC from the rest of the waste is compared to incineration with regard to this annual cost penalty. These penalties may range as high as $100,000 annually depending on the waste characteristics and percent of PVC
Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2009-01-01
This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial
Sensitivity analysis using probability bounding
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ferson, Scott; Troy Tucker, W.
2006-01-01
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) provides analysts a convenient means to characterize the neighborhood of possible results that would be obtained from plausible alternative inputs in probabilistic calculations. We show the relationship between PBA and the methods of interval analysis and probabilistic uncertainty analysis from which it is jointly derived, and indicate how the method can be used to assess the quality of probabilistic models such as those developed in Monte Carlo simulations for risk analyses. We also illustrate how a sensitivity analysis can be conducted within a PBA by pinching inputs to precise distributions or real values
Economic analysis of nuclear energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H
2001-12-01
The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.
Economic analysis of nuclear energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H.
2001-12-01
The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation
Sensitivity analysis in remote sensing
Ustinov, Eugene A
2015-01-01
This book contains a detailed presentation of general principles of sensitivity analysis as well as their applications to sample cases of remote sensing experiments. An emphasis is made on applications of adjoint problems, because they are more efficient in many practical cases, although their formulation may seem counterintuitive to a beginner. Special attention is paid to forward problems based on higher-order partial differential equations, where a novel matrix operator approach to formulation of corresponding adjoint problems is presented. Sensitivity analysis (SA) serves for quantitative models of physical objects the same purpose, as differential calculus does for functions. SA provides derivatives of model output parameters (observables) with respect to input parameters. In remote sensing SA provides computer-efficient means to compute the jacobians, matrices of partial derivatives of observables with respect to the geophysical parameters of interest. The jacobians are used to solve corresponding inver...
Sensitivity Analysis of Viscoelastic Structures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.M.G. de Lima
2006-01-01
Full Text Available In the context of control of sound and vibration of mechanical systems, the use of viscoelastic materials has been regarded as a convenient strategy in many types of industrial applications. Numerical models based on finite element discretization have been frequently used in the analysis and design of complex structural systems incorporating viscoelastic materials. Such models must account for the typical dependence of the viscoelastic characteristics on operational and environmental parameters, such as frequency and temperature. In many applications, including optimal design and model updating, sensitivity analysis based on numerical models is a very usefull tool. In this paper, the formulation of first-order sensitivity analysis of complex frequency response functions is developed for plates treated with passive constraining damping layers, considering geometrical characteristics, such as the thicknesses of the multi-layer components, as design variables. Also, the sensitivity of the frequency response functions with respect to temperature is introduced. As an example, response derivatives are calculated for a three-layer sandwich plate and the results obtained are compared with first-order finite-difference approximations.
An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Dingqin
1989-01-01
An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle is developed. This economic code includes 12 subroutines representing vavious processes for entire PWR fuel cycle, and indicates the influence of the fuel cost on the cost of the electricity generation and the influence of individual process on the sensitivity of the fuel cycle cost
UMTS Common Channel Sensitivity Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pratas, Nuno; Rodrigues, António; Santos, Frederico
2006-01-01
and as such it is necessary that both channels be available across the cell radius. This requirement makes the choice of the transmission parameters a fundamental one. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis regarding the transmission parameters of two UMTS common channels: RACH and FACH. Optimization of these channels...... is performed and values for the key transmission parameters in both common channels are obtained. On RACH these parameters are the message to preamble offset, the initial SIR target and the preamble power step while on FACH it is the transmission power offset....
TEMAC, Top Event Sensitivity Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iman, R.L.; Shortencarier, M.J.
1988-01-01
1 - Description of program or function: TEMAC is designed to permit the user to easily estimate risk and to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses with a Boolean expression such as produced by the SETS computer program. SETS produces a mathematical representation of a fault tree used to model system unavailability. In the terminology of the TEMAC program, such a mathematical representation is referred to as a top event. The analysis of risk involves the estimation of the magnitude of risk, the sensitivity of risk estimates to base event probabilities and initiating event frequencies, and the quantification of the uncertainty in the risk estimates. 2 - Method of solution: Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses associated with top events involve mathematical operations on the corresponding Boolean expression for the top event, as well as repeated evaluations of the top event in a Monte Carlo fashion. TEMAC employs a general matrix approach which provides a convenient general form for Boolean expressions, is computationally efficient, and allows large problems to be analyzed. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maxima of: 4000 cut sets, 500 events, 500 values in a Monte Carlo sample, 16 characters in an event name. These restrictions are implemented through the FORTRAN 77 PARAMATER statement
Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, S. S.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Nam, J. H.; Noh, B. C.; Kim, H. R.
2008-12-01
The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis
Dye Sensitized Solar Cells for Economically Viable Photovoltaic Systems.
Jung, Hyun Suk; Lee, Jung-Kun
2013-05-16
TiO2 nanoparticle-based dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) have attracted a significant level of scientific and technological interest for their potential as economically viable photovoltaic devices. While DSSCs have multiple benefits such as material abundance, a short energy payback period, constant power output, and compatibility with flexible applications, there are still several challenges that hold back large scale commercialization. Critical factors determining the future of DSSCs involve energy conversion efficiency, long-term stability, and production cost. Continuous advancement of their long-term stability suggests that state-of-the-art DSSCs will operate for over 20 years without a significant decrease in performance. Nevertheless, key questions remain in regards to energy conversion efficiency improvements and material cost reduction. In this Perspective, the present state of the field and the ongoing efforts to address the requirements of DSSCs are summarized with views on the future of DSSCs.
Economic analysis of nuclear energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.
2004-12-01
This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO 2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO 2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table
Economic and Financial Analysis Tools | Energy Analysis | NREL
Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Use these economic and . Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Use these easy-to-use, spreadsheet-based tools to analyze the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the
Data fusion qualitative sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Clayton, E.A.; Lewis, R.E.
1995-09-01
Pacific Northwest Laboratory was tasked with testing, debugging, and refining the Hanford Site data fusion workstation (DFW), with the assistance of Coleman Research Corporation (CRC), before delivering the DFW to the environmental restoration client at the Hanford Site. Data fusion is the mathematical combination (or fusion) of disparate data sets into a single interpretation. The data fusion software used in this study was developed by CRC. The data fusion software developed by CRC was initially demonstrated on a data set collected at the Hanford Site where three types of data were combined. These data were (1) seismic reflection, (2) seismic refraction, and (3) depth to geologic horizons. The fused results included a contour map of the top of a low-permeability horizon. This report discusses the results of a sensitivity analysis of data fusion software to variations in its input parameters. The data fusion software developed by CRC has a large number of input parameters that can be varied by the user and that influence the results of data fusion. Many of these parameters are defined as part of the earth model. The earth model is a series of 3-dimensional polynomials with horizontal spatial coordinates as the independent variables and either subsurface layer depth or values of various properties within these layers (e.g., compression wave velocity, resistivity) as the dependent variables
Economic Feasibility Analysis Report. Strategic Mobility 21
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Mallon, Lawrence G; Monaco, Kristen; Fetty, George R
2007-01-01
.... This multi-disciplinary analysis provides an objective examination of the economic and operational feasibility of a shuttle train intermodal rail operation under various scenarios connecting the San...
The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.
Yaxley, I L
1998-03-01
Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems.
Zhang, Hong-Xuan; Dempsey, William P; Goutsias, John
2009-09-07
Sensitivity analysis is an indispensable tool for studying the robustness and fragility properties of biochemical reaction systems as well as for designing optimal approaches for selective perturbation and intervention. Deterministic sensitivity analysis techniques, using derivatives of the system response, have been extensively used in the literature. However, these techniques suffer from several drawbacks, which must be carefully considered before using them in problems of systems biology. We develop here a probabilistic approach to sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems. The proposed technique employs a biophysically derived model for parameter fluctuations and, by using a recently suggested variance-based approach to sensitivity analysis [Saltelli et al., Chem. Rev. (Washington, D.C.) 105, 2811 (2005)], it leads to a powerful sensitivity analysis methodology for biochemical reaction systems. The approach presented in this paper addresses many problems associated with derivative-based sensitivity analysis techniques. Most importantly, it produces thermodynamically consistent sensitivity analysis results, can easily accommodate appreciable parameter variations, and allows for systematic investigation of high-order interaction effects. By employing a computational model of the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade, we demonstrate that our approach is well suited for sensitivity analysis of biochemical reaction systems and can produce a wealth of information about the sensitivity properties of such systems. The price to be paid, however, is a substantial increase in computational complexity over derivative-based techniques, which must be effectively addressed in order to make the proposed approach to sensitivity analysis more practical.
Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical Interaction Model ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this analysis, we will study the sensitivity analysis due to a variation of the initial condition and experimental time. These results which we have not seen elsewhere are analysed and discussed quantitatively. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 J. Appl. Sci. Environ. Manage. June, 2012, Vol.
Sensitivity Analysis of Multidisciplinary Rotorcraft Simulations
Wang, Li; Diskin, Boris; Biedron, Robert T.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Bauchau, Olivier A.
2017-01-01
A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis of rotorcraft simulations involving tightly coupled high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis solvers is presented and evaluated. An unstructured sensitivity-enabled Navier-Stokes solver, FUN3D, and a nonlinear flexible multibody dynamics solver, DYMORE, are coupled to predict the aerodynamic loads and structural responses of helicopter rotor blades. A discretely-consistent adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in FUN3D provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows and unstructured dynamic overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute DYMORE structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Numerical results verify accuracy of the FUN3D/DYMORE system by conducting simulations for a benchmark rotorcraft test model and comparing solutions with established analyses and experimental data. Complex-variable implementation of sensitivity analysis of DYMORE and the coupled FUN3D/DYMORE system is verified by comparing with real-valued analysis and sensitivities. Correctness of adjoint formulations for FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces is verified by comparing adjoint-based and complex-variable sensitivities. Finally, sensitivities of the lift and drag functions obtained by complex-variable FUN3D/DYMORE simulations are compared with sensitivities computed by the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis, which couples adjoint-based flow and grid sensitivities of FUN3D and FUN3D/DYMORE interfaces with complex-variable sensitivities of DYMORE structural responses.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1987-12-01
This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required
Maximum Water Hammer Sensitivity Analysis
Jalil Emadi; Abbas Solemani
2011-01-01
Pressure waves and Water Hammer occur in a pumping system when valves are closed or opened suddenly or in the case of sudden failure of pumps. Determination of maximum water hammer is considered one of the most important technical and economical items of which engineers and designers of pumping stations and conveyance pipelines should take care. Hammer Software is a recent application used to simulate water hammer. The present study focuses on determining significance of ...
Economic analysis of fuel treatments
D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon
2012-01-01
The economics of wildfire is complicated because wildfire behavior depends on the spatial and temporal scale at which management decisions made, and because of uncertainties surrounding the results of management actions. Like the wildfire processes they seek to manage, interventions through fire prevention programs, suppression, and fuels management are scale dependent...
Risk Characterization uncertainties associated description, sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carrillo, M.; Tovar, M.; Alvarez, J.; Arraez, M.; Hordziejewicz, I.; Loreto, I.
2013-01-01
The power point presentation is about risks to the estimated levels of exposure, uncertainty and variability in the analysis, sensitivity analysis, risks from exposure to multiple substances, formulation of guidelines for carcinogenic and genotoxic compounds and risk subpopulations
Object-sensitive Type Analysis of PHP
Van der Hoek, Henk Erik; Hage, J
2015-01-01
In this paper we develop an object-sensitive type analysis for PHP, based on an extension of the notion of monotone frameworks to deal with the dynamic aspects of PHP, and following the framework of Smaragdakis et al. for object-sensitive analysis. We consider a number of instantiations of the
Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market
Xie, Linyin
2010-01-01
This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...
Pet Overpopulation: An Economic Analysis
Stephen Coate; Brian Knight
2009-01-01
This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...
A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chakraborty, Souvik; Chowdhury, Rajib
2017-01-01
Distribution based sensitivity analysis (DSA) computes sensitivity of the input random variables with respect to the change in distribution of output response. Although DSA is widely appreciated as the best tool for sensitivity analysis, the computational issue associated with this method prohibits its use for complex structures involving costly finite element analysis. For addressing this issue, this paper presents a method that couples polynomial correlated function expansion (PCFE) with DSA. PCFE is a fully equivalent operational model which integrates the concepts of analysis of variance decomposition, extended bases and homotopy algorithm. By integrating PCFE into DSA, it is possible to considerably alleviate the computational burden. Three examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach for sensitivity analysis. For all the problems, proposed approach yields excellent results with significantly reduced computational effort. The results obtained, to some extent, indicate that proposed approach can be utilized for sensitivity analysis of large scale structures. - Highlights: • A hybrid approach for global sensitivity analysis is proposed. • Proposed approach integrates PCFE within distribution based sensitivity analysis. • Proposed approach is highly efficient.
Economic analysis of nuclear energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S
1999-12-01
The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.
Economic analysis of nuclear energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.
1999-12-01
The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model
Sensitivity analysis of a PWR pressurizer
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bruel, Renata Nunes
1997-01-01
A sensitivity analysis relative to the parameters and modelling of the physical process in a PWR pressurizer has been performed. The sensitivity analysis was developed by implementing the key parameters and theoretical model lings which generated a comprehensive matrix of influences of each changes analysed. The major influences that have been observed were the flashing phenomenon and the steam condensation on the spray drops. The present analysis is also applicable to the several theoretical and experimental areas. (author)
Economic analysis of nuclear reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.
1979-05-01
The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U 3 O 8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented
Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Lee, H. M.; Oh, K. B.
2003-12-01
This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed
Economic Analysis of Cyber Security
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Gallaher, Michael P; Rowe, Brent R; Rogozhin, Alex V; Link, Albert N
2006-01-01
.... However, few organizations attempt such analysis for their cyber security mechanisms. Key performance and evaluation metrics are not available, so organizations rely on qualitative assessments...
The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)
Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.
2013-12-01
In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be
Economic Analysis of Long Working Hours (Japanese)
OHTAKE Fumio; OKUDAIRA Hiroko
2008-01-01
In this paper we set out the economic grounds for restrictions on long working hours and conduct an empirical analysis using surveys from the perspective of behavioral economics. The results of the analysis indicate that, on a year-on-year basis, if state of health improves, the probability of working more than 60 hours per week increases significantly, but that even when state of health deteriorates there is no decrease in the probability of working long hours. Moreover, among male managemen...
Economic analysis of EBT reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Woo, J.T.; Uckan, N.A.; Lidsky, L.M.
1977-01-01
In order to establish the economic potential of the Elmo Bumpy Torus (EBT) reactor, two independent system-costing models have been developed. Both models predict capital costs of approximately $400/kW(th). These relatively low costs reflect the simplicity of the EBTR design. In particular, the modular nature of the individual blanket-shield segments, the low costs ''accelerator style'' containment building, high beta, and steady-state operation lead to relatively low reactor costs. A detailed cost breakdown for subsystems is analyzed. High cost and high uncertainty subsystems are identified to direct further emphasis into those areas. The calculated capital costs for the EBT reactor are compared with those costs quoted for tokamak reactors
Sensitivity analysis for large-scale problems
Noor, Ahmed K.; Whitworth, Sandra L.
1987-01-01
The development of efficient techniques for calculating sensitivity derivatives is studied. The objective is to present a computational procedure for calculating sensitivity derivatives as part of performing structural reanalysis for large-scale problems. The scope is limited to framed type structures. Both linear static analysis and free-vibration eigenvalue problems are considered.
Sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment
Groen, E.A.; Heijungs, R.; Bokkers, E.A.M.; Boer, de I.J.M.
2014-01-01
Life cycle assessments require many input parameters and many of these parameters are uncertain; therefore, a sensitivity analysis is an essential part of the final interpretation. The aim of this study is to compare seven sensitivity methods applied to three types of case stud-ies. Two
Ethical sensitivity in professional practice: concept analysis.
Weaver, Kathryn; Morse, Janice; Mitcham, Carl
2008-06-01
This paper is a report of a concept analysis of ethical sensitivity. Ethical sensitivity enables nurses and other professionals to respond morally to the suffering and vulnerability of those receiving professional care and services. Because of its significance to nursing and other professional practices, ethical sensitivity deserves more focused analysis. A criteria-based method oriented toward pragmatic utility guided the analysis of 200 papers and books from the fields of nursing, medicine, psychology, dentistry, clinical ethics, theology, education, law, accounting or business, journalism, philosophy, political and social sciences and women's studies. This literature spanned 1970 to 2006 and was sorted by discipline and concept dimensions and examined for concept structure and use across various contexts. The analysis was completed in September 2007. Ethical sensitivity in professional practice develops in contexts of uncertainty, client suffering and vulnerability, and through relationships characterized by receptivity, responsiveness and courage on the part of professionals. Essential attributes of ethical sensitivity are identified as moral perception, affectivity and dividing loyalties. Outcomes include integrity preserving decision-making, comfort and well-being, learning and professional transcendence. Our findings promote ethical sensitivity as a type of practical wisdom that pursues client comfort and professional satisfaction with care delivery. The analysis and resulting model offers an inclusive view of ethical sensitivity that addresses some of the limitations with prior conceptualizations.
LBLOCA sensitivity analysis using meta models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Villamizar, M.; Sanchez-Saez, F.; Villanueva, J.F.; Carlos, S.; Sanchez, A.I.; Martorell, S.
2014-01-01
This paper presents an approach to perform the sensitivity analysis of the results of simulation of thermal hydraulic codes within a BEPU approach. Sensitivity analysis is based on the computation of Sobol' indices that makes use of a meta model, It presents also an application to a Large-Break Loss of Coolant Accident, LBLOCA, in the cold leg of a pressurized water reactor, PWR, addressing the results of the BEMUSE program and using the thermal-hydraulic code TRACE. (authors)
Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Castillo, Enrique; Minguez, Roberto; Castillo, Carmen
2008-01-01
The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods
Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Castillo, Enrique [Department of Applied Mathematics and Computational Sciences, University of Cantabria, Avda. Castros s/n., 39005 Santander (Spain)], E-mail: castie@unican.es; Minguez, Roberto [Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: roberto.minguez@uclm.es; Castillo, Carmen [Department of Civil Engineering, University of Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: mariacarmen.castillo@uclm.es
2008-12-15
The paper starts giving the main results that allow a sensitivity analysis to be performed in a general optimization problem, including sensitivities of the objective function, the primal and the dual variables with respect to data. In particular, general results are given for non-linear programming, and closed formulas for linear programming problems are supplied. Next, the methods are applied to a collection of civil engineering reliability problems, which includes a bridge crane, a retaining wall and a composite breakwater. Finally, the sensitivity analysis formulas are extended to calculus of variations problems and a slope stability problem is used to illustrate the methods.
Techniques for sensitivity analysis of SYVAC results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prust, J.O.
1985-05-01
Sensitivity analysis techniques may be required to examine the sensitivity of SYVAC model predictions to the input parameter values, the subjective probability distributions assigned to the input parameters and to the relationship between dose and the probability of fatal cancers plus serious hereditary disease in the first two generations of offspring of a member of the critical group. This report mainly considers techniques for determining the sensitivity of dose and risk to the variable input parameters. The performance of a sensitivity analysis technique may be improved by decomposing the model and data into subsets for analysis, making use of existing information on sensitivity and concentrating sampling in regions the parameter space that generates high doses or risks. A number of sensitivity analysis techniques are reviewed for their application to the SYVAC model including four techniques tested in an earlier study by CAP Scientific for the SYVAC project. This report recommends the development now of a method for evaluating the derivative of dose and parameter value and extending the Kruskal-Wallis technique to test for interactions between parameters. It is also recommended that the sensitivity of the output of each sub-model of SYVAC to input parameter values should be examined. (author)
Economic analysis of basiliximab in renal transplantation.
Keown, P A; Balshaw, R; Krueger, H; Baladi, J F
2001-06-15
groups. The principal costs associated with repeat admission to the transplant ward and the general ward were marginally higher for placebo ($7,395 vs. $6,300 and $5,986 vs. $4,625). Treatment of acute rejection and maintenance immunosuppressive drug use were associated with only limited savings as a result of basiliximab (savings <$200 each). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameters affecting the savings as a result of using basiliximab were a reduction in the duration of initial and repeat hospitalization followed by the reduced risks of acute rejection and graft loss. Before accounting for the cost of the therapy itself, basiliximab produces an estimated economic saving of $4,554 during the first year after transplant, of which $3,344 is attributable to the reduced costs of graft dysfunction, including graft loss and dialysis ($1,722) and follow-up hospitalizations ($1,622). When marketed, basiliximab is expected to cost approximately $3,000 per course (two doses of 20 mg), resulting in a net first-year saving of $1,554. Under these circumstances, basiliximab can be considered a dominant therapy in renal transplantation.
Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.
2002-12-01
This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.
2006-01-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Helton, Jon Craig; Storlie, Curtis B.
2006-08-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (1) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (2) additive models, (3) projection pursuit regression, and (4) recursive partitioning regression. The indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present.
Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey
2017-12-01
Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.
Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.
Tinari, Frank D.
1979-01-01
Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)
Thermodynamics, thermoeconomic and economic analysis of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The thermoeconomic analysis proposes the distribution of costs based on thermodynamic concepts, enabling the evaluation of reflection of the investment costs and fuel in the cost of products (steam and electricity). The economic analysis acts as a deciding factor for acceptance or project rejection. Keywords: Cogeneration ...
Economic analysis of nuclear energy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S
2000-12-01
This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.
Economic analysis of nuclear energy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.
2000-12-01
This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments
Dynamic Resonance Sensitivity Analysis in Wind Farms
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ebrahimzadeh, Esmaeil; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Xiongfei
2017-01-01
(PFs) are calculated by critical eigenvalue sensitivity analysis versus the entries of the MIMO matrix. The PF analysis locates the most exciting bus of the resonances, where can be the best location to install the passive or active filters to reduce the harmonic resonance problems. Time...
Economic analysis of needs the training of human resources
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Buha Vesna V.
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The issue of lifelong learning is linked to the voluntary and motivated to seek knowledge from personal or organizational reasons. The fact that an individual learns driven by personal career goals, desire for self improvement and motivation refers to the importance of lifelong learning for the entire social inclusion, sustainability, and competitiveness and employment. The common denominator of all the problems of investment in education is an issue of increasing allocations to the social issues, the pace that in this area manifest needs. Relative resource constraints requires that the investment in professional development taking place in accordance with the expected contribution to the creation of new value, increase productivity and social development of society as a whole. Respecting this request, in general, should provide maximum socio-economic effects with minimal investment. Precise measurement is achieved by tools of economic analysis: cost & benefit, economic sensitivity analysis, risk assessment.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Greenspan, E.
1982-01-01
This chapter presents the mathematical basis for sensitivity functions, discusses their physical meaning and information they contain, and clarifies a number of issues concerning their application, including the definition of group sensitivities, the selection of sensitivity functions to be included in the analysis, and limitations of sensitivity theory. Examines the theoretical foundation; criticality reset sensitivities; group sensitivities and uncertainties; selection of sensitivities included in the analysis; and other uses and limitations of sensitivity functions. Gives the theoretical formulation of sensitivity functions pertaining to ''as-built'' designs for performance parameters of the form of ratios of linear flux functionals (such as reaction-rate ratios), linear adjoint functionals, bilinear functions (such as reactivity worth ratios), and for reactor reactivity. Offers a consistent procedure for reducing energy-dependent or fine-group sensitivities and uncertainties to broad group sensitivities and uncertainties. Provides illustrations of sensitivity functions as well as references to available compilations of such functions and of total sensitivities. Indicates limitations of sensitivity theory originating from the fact that this theory is based on a first-order perturbation theory
TOLERANCE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: THIRTY YEARS LATER
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard E. Wendell
2010-12-01
Full Text Available Tolerance sensitivity analysis was conceived in 1980 as a pragmatic approach to effectively characterize a parametric region over which objective function coefficients and right-hand-side terms in linear programming could vary simultaneously and independently while maintaining the same optimal basis. As originally proposed, the tolerance region corresponds to the maximum percentage by which coefficients or terms could vary from their estimated values. Over the last thirty years the original results have been extended in a number of ways and applied in a variety of applications. This paper is a critical review of tolerance sensitivity analysis, including extensions and applications.
Economic Analysis of Horticultural Enterprises in Yenagoa ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The study was on Economic analysis of horticultural enterprises in Yenagoa metropolis of Bayelsa State, Nigeria. A total of 8 horticultural enterprises were chosen through a pilot survey to form the sample size. Results show that horticultural farming is an activity for both males and females. A greater number of the ...
Comparative Economic Analysis of Beekeeping Using Traditional ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The study was carried out in Tabora and Katavi regions in the miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The overall objective of the study was to undertake a comparative economic analysis of beekeeping using improved or traditional beehives. Data were collected from 198 beekeepers that were randomly selected from a sampling ...
Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis
Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.
2010-01-01
According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available
The Economic Analysis of University Participation Rates
Fallis, George
2015-01-01
Over the postwar period in most developed countries, the university participation rate has risen steadily to well over 30 percent, although there remain differences between countries. Students from lower income families have lower participation rates than those from higher income families. The article provides an economic analysis of these…
An economic analysis of communal goat production
P.J. Sebei; C.M.E. McCrindle; E.C. Webb
2004-01-01
The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...
Economic impact analysis of load forecasting
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.
1997-01-01
Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented
Sensitivity Analysis of Centralized Dynamic Cell Selection
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lopez, Victor Fernandez; Alvarez, Beatriz Soret; Pedersen, Klaus I.
2016-01-01
and a suboptimal optimization algorithm that nearly achieves the performance of the optimal Hungarian assignment. Moreover, an exhaustive sensitivity analysis with different network and traffic configurations is carried out in order to understand what conditions are more appropriate for the use of the proposed...
Sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lemaitre, Paul
2014-01-01
This thesis' subject is sensitivity analysis in a structural reliability context. The general framework is the study of a deterministic numerical model that allows to reproduce a complex physical phenomenon. The aim of a reliability study is to estimate the failure probability of the system from the numerical model and the uncertainties of the inputs. In this context, the quantification of the impact of the uncertainty of each input parameter on the output might be of interest. This step is called sensitivity analysis. Many scientific works deal with this topic but not in the reliability scope. This thesis' aim is to test existing sensitivity analysis methods, and to propose more efficient original methods. A bibliographical step on sensitivity analysis on one hand and on the estimation of small failure probabilities on the other hand is first proposed. This step raises the need to develop appropriate techniques. Two variables ranking methods are then explored. The first one proposes to make use of binary classifiers (random forests). The second one measures the departure, at each step of a subset method, between each input original density and the density given the subset reached. A more general and original methodology reflecting the impact of the input density modification on the failure probability is then explored. The proposed methods are then applied on the CWNR case, which motivates this thesis. (author)
Applications of advances in nonlinear sensitivity analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Werbos, P J
1982-01-01
The following paper summarizes the major properties and applications of a collection of algorithms involving differentiation and optimization at minimum cost. The areas of application include the sensitivity analysis of models, new work in statistical or econometric estimation, optimization, artificial intelligence and neuron modelling.
*Corresponding Author Sensitivity Analysis of a Physiochemical ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Michael Horsfall
The numerical method of sensitivity or the principle of parsimony ... analysis is a widely applied numerical method often being used in the .... Chemical Engineering Journal 128(2-3), 85-93. Amod S ... coupled 3-PG and soil organic matter.
Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian
2017-01-01
Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as
Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, E-mail: w.kuckshinrichs@fz-juelich.de; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Juelich (Germany)
2017-02-20
Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as
Economic analysis of KNGR's conceptual design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roh, Myung-Sub; Chung, Kyung-Nam; Hong, Jang-Hee
1997-01-01
During the last two decades in Korea, with the rapid economic growth and industrialization, nuclear power has played an important role in electric power production. At present, Korea has 11 nuclear units in operation with total installed capacity of 9,916MWe and 7 units under construction with total capacity of 6,100MWe. An advanced reactor development program, called Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR), has been started for the coming 21st century. It aims to enhance safety features compared to existing plants and follow the target to maintain the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy with alternative energy sources. In order to meet these requirements, a number of technical and economical factors have been taken into the program. These factors include the economy of plant size, design simplification and optimization, and reduction of construction period. This paper addresses the preliminary economic analysis results for the KNGR design. It is indicated that KNGR has about 17% economic advantage compared to the current 1,000 MWe PWR. This paper also describes some of the experiences gained and important factors related to reducing the investment and operation costs. 5 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs
Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Athena Forghani
2015-07-01
Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.
Sensitivity Analysis in Two-Stage DEA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Athena Forghani
2015-12-01
Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA is a method for measuring the efficiency of peer decision making units (DMUs which uses a set of inputs to produce a set of outputs. In some cases, DMUs have a two-stage structure, in which the first stage utilizes inputs to produce outputs used as the inputs of the second stage to produce final outputs. One important issue in two-stage DEA is the sensitivity of the results of an analysis to perturbations in the data. The current paper looks into combined model for two-stage DEA and applies the sensitivity analysis to DMUs on the entire frontier. In fact, necessary and sufficient conditions for preserving a DMU's efficiency classiffication are developed when various data changes are applied to all DMUs.
Sensitivity analysis and related analysis : A survey of statistical techniques
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
1995-01-01
This paper reviews the state of the art in five related types of analysis, namely (i) sensitivity or what-if analysis, (ii) uncertainty or risk analysis, (iii) screening, (iv) validation, and (v) optimization. The main question is: when should which type of analysis be applied; which statistical
Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lusk, P.D.
1991-01-01
An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation
Aspects of economic analysis in forestry enterprises
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Yu. Chik
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The subject of economic analysis from the point of view of philosophical sciences and works of domestic and foreign scientists is researched. The analysis of costs and production costs as the most important components of the economic analysis of forestry enterprises are distinguished. The basic tasks of the economic analysis at the enterprises of forestry are determined. The main objects of the study of indicators of the cost price of forestry products are singled out. The calculation of general indicators of expenditures at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is carried out and the corresponding general conclusions are made. The influence of factors on the change in the cost price of harvesting of forestry products in terms of expenditure items at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is calculated and the corresponding general conclusions are indicated. The main sources of reserves for reducing the costs of forestry products at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» are proposed.
Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL
Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis NREL conducts techno-economic analyses (TEAs) for algal biofuels, thermochemical conversion, and agitating the liquid as it flows around. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis NREL's Algae Techno
An economic analysis of communal goat production.
Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C
2004-03-01
The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to
An economic analysis of communal goat production
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P.J. Sebei
2004-06-01
Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different
Economic analysis of nuclear power generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su
1997-12-01
The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs
Economic analysis in medical education: definition of essential terms.
Walsh, Kieran
2014-10-01
Medical education is expensive. There is a growing interest in the subject of cost and value in medical education. However, in the medical education literature, terms are sometimes used loosely - and so there is a need for basic grounding in the meaning of commonly used and important terms in medical education economics. The purpose of this article is to define some terms that are frequently used in economic analysis in medical education. In this article, terms are described, and the descriptions are followed by a worked example of how the terms might be used in practice. The following terms are described: opportunity cost, total cost of ownership, sensitivity analysis, viewpoint, activity-based costing, efficiency, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, price and transaction costs.
Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.
Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet
2017-02-01
Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.
Global sensitivity analysis by polynomial dimensional decomposition
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rahman, Sharif, E-mail: rahman@engineering.uiowa.ed [College of Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242 (United States)
2011-07-15
This paper presents a polynomial dimensional decomposition (PDD) method for global sensitivity analysis of stochastic systems subject to independent random input following arbitrary probability distributions. The method involves Fourier-polynomial expansions of lower-variate component functions of a stochastic response by measure-consistent orthonormal polynomial bases, analytical formulae for calculating the global sensitivity indices in terms of the expansion coefficients, and dimension-reduction integration for estimating the expansion coefficients. Due to identical dimensional structures of PDD and analysis-of-variance decomposition, the proposed method facilitates simple and direct calculation of the global sensitivity indices. Numerical results of the global sensitivity indices computed for smooth systems reveal significantly higher convergence rates of the PDD approximation than those from existing methods, including polynomial chaos expansion, random balance design, state-dependent parameter, improved Sobol's method, and sampling-based methods. However, for non-smooth functions, the convergence properties of the PDD solution deteriorate to a great extent, warranting further improvements. The computational complexity of the PDD method is polynomial, as opposed to exponential, thereby alleviating the curse of dimensionality to some extent.
North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis
2010-01-22
although non- governmental groups do run operations in the DPRK in activities such as goat dairy farming and transportation. North -South Korean...Finance Minister Says “At Least” 34m US Dollars Sent to North Korea. Financial Times Information, Global News Wire—Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. June 6...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis Dick K
Demonstration sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN III
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Neuhauser, K.S.; Reardon, P.C.
1986-10-01
A demonstration sensitivity analysis was performed to: quantify the relative importance of 37 variables to the total incident free dose; assess the elasticity of seven dose subgroups to those same variables; develop density distributions for accident dose to combinations of accident data under wide-ranging variations; show the relationship between accident consequences and probabilities of occurrence; and develop limits for the variability of probability consequence curves
[HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].
Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain
2015-09-01
Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.
Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code. 2
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki
2005-02-01
Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of criticality experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons; the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For
National Launch System comparative economic analysis
Prince, A.
1992-01-01
Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.
Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ko, Won Il; Gao, Fanxing; Kim, Sung Ki
2012-01-01
Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly
Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki
2004-02-01
To practical use of fact reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoints of improvements on plant efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor core 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristics is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, development of a analysis code for burnup sensitivity, SAGEP-BURN, has been done and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to user due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functionalities in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for some reasons; computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion. For this
Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL
Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects
Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary
Macomber, H. L.
1986-01-01
An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.
Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Coiante, D.
1995-03-01
In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment
Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jeong, K. H.; Kim, J. H.; Boo, K. D.; Park, S. B.
2010-07-01
The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of
Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solantausta, Y.
1995-01-01
The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned
BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adina IORGA
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Barber, A. D.; Busch, R.
2009-01-01
The goal of this work is to obtain sensitivities from direct uncertainty analysis calculation and correlate those calculated values with the sensitivities produced from TSUNAMI-3D (Tools for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Implementation in Three Dimensions). A full sensitivity analysis is performed on a critical experiment to determine the overall uncertainty of the experiment. Small perturbation calculations are performed for all known uncertainties to obtain the total uncertainty of the experiment. The results from a critical experiment are only known as well as the geometric and material properties. The goal of this relationship is to simplify the uncertainty quantification process in assessing a critical experiment, while still considering all of the important parameters. (authors)
Sensitivity analysis of the Two Geometry Method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wichers, V.A.
1993-09-01
The Two Geometry Method (TGM) was designed specifically for the verification of the uranium enrichment of low enriched UF 6 gas in the presence of uranium deposits on the pipe walls. Complications can arise if the TGM is applied under extreme conditions, such as deposits larger than several times the gas activity, small pipe diameters less than 40 mm and low pressures less than 150 Pa. This report presents a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of the TGM. The impact of the various sources of uncertainty on the performance of the method is discussed. The application to a practical case is based on worst case conditions with regards to the measurement conditions, and on realistic conditions with respect to the false alarm probability and the non detection probability. Monte Carlo calculations were used to evaluate the sensitivity for sources of uncertainty which are experimentally inaccessible. (orig.)
Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hamilton, Bruce Duncan [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Chicago, IL (United States)
2014-08-27
This report is the third annual assessment of the U.S. offshore wind market. It includes the following major sections: Section 1: key data on developments in the offshore wind technology sector and the global development of offshore wind projects, with a particular focus on progress in the United States; Section 2: analysis of policy developments at the federal and state levels that have been effective in advancing offshore wind deployment in the United States; Section 3: analysis of actual and projected economic impact, including regional development and job creation; Section 4: analysis of developments in relevant sectors of the economy with the potential to affect offshore wind deployment in the United States
Economic analysis of hydride fueled BWR
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ganda, F.; Shuffler, C.; Greenspan, E.; Todreas, N.
2009-01-01
The economic implications of designing BWR cores with hydride fuels instead of conventional oxide fuels are analyzed. The economic analysis methodology adopted is based on the lifetime levelized cost of electricity (COE). Bracketing values (1970 and 3010 $/kWe) are used for the overnight construction costs and for the power scaling factors (0.4 and 0.8) that correlate between a change in the capital cost to a change in the power level. It is concluded that a newly constructed BWR reactor could substantially benefit from the use of 10 x 10 hydride fuel bundles instead of 10 x 10 oxide fuel bundles design presently in use. The cost saving would depend on the core pressure drop constraint that can be implemented in newly constructed BWRs - it is between 2% and 3% for a core pressure drop constraint as of the reference BWR, between 9% and 15% for a 50% higher core pressure drop, and between 12% and 21% higher for close to 100% core pressure. The attainable cost reduction was found insensitive to the specific construction cost but strongly dependent on the power scaling factor. The cost advantage of hydride fuelled cores as compared to that of the oxide reference core depends only weakly on the uranium and SWU prices, on the 'per volume base' fabrication cost of hydride fuels, and on the discount rate used. To be economically competitive, the uranium enrichment required for the hydride fuelled core needs to be around 10%.
Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)
1997-02-01
Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.
Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walter, A.C.S.; Bajay, S.V.
1992-01-01
Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)
Technical and economic analysis of hydrogen refuelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nistor, Silviu; Dave, Saraansh; Fan, Zhong; Sooriyabandara, Mahesh
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Technical and economic models of a hydrogen station for vehicles refuelling. • Hydrogen demand from fuel cell electric vehicles modelled stochastically. • Study case based on a UK pilot project. • Operation of the H_2 station using combined energy from wind and power grid is preferred. • Return on investment of 5–10 years is possible for the hydrogen station. - Abstract: This paper focuses on technical and economic analysis of a hydrogen refilling station to provide operational insight through tight coupling of technical models of physical processes and economic models. This allows the dynamic relationships of the system to be captured and analysed to provide short/medium term analytical capability to support system design, planning, and financing. The modelling developed here highlights the need to closely link technical and economic models for technology led projects where technical capability and commercial feasibility are important. The results show that hydrogen fuel can be competitive with petrol on a GBP/KG basis if the return on investment period is over 10 years for PEM electrolysers and 5 for Alkaline electrolysers. We also show that subsidies on capital costs (as reflected by some R&D funding programs) make both PEM and Alkaline technologies cheaper than the equivalent price of petrol, which suggests more emphasis should be put on commercialising R&D funded projects as they have commercial advantages. The paper also shows that a combined wind and grid connected station is preferable so that a higher number of customers are served (i.e. minimum shortage of hydrogen).
Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis.
Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovecki, Mladen
2011-08-15
To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by implementing changes in the next fiscal
Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis
Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen
2011-01-01
Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by
Sensitivity analysis of reactive ecological dynamics.
Verdy, Ariane; Caswell, Hal
2008-08-01
Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.
Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sudret, Bruno
2008-01-01
Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices
Global sensitivity analysis using polynomial chaos expansions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sudret, Bruno [Electricite de France, R and D Division, Site des Renardieres, F 77818 Moret-sur-Loing Cedex (France)], E-mail: bruno.sudret@edf.fr
2008-07-15
Global sensitivity analysis (SA) aims at quantifying the respective effects of input random variables (or combinations thereof) onto the variance of the response of a physical or mathematical model. Among the abundant literature on sensitivity measures, the Sobol' indices have received much attention since they provide accurate information for most models. The paper introduces generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to build surrogate models that allow one to compute the Sobol' indices analytically as a post-processing of the PCE coefficients. Thus the computational cost of the sensitivity indices practically reduces to that of estimating the PCE coefficients. An original non intrusive regression-based approach is proposed, together with an experimental design of minimal size. Various application examples illustrate the approach, both from the field of global SA (i.e. well-known benchmark problems) and from the field of stochastic mechanics. The proposed method gives accurate results for various examples that involve up to eight input random variables, at a computational cost which is 2-3 orders of magnitude smaller than the traditional Monte Carlo-based evaluation of the Sobol' indices.
Contributions to sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jacques, J.
2005-12-01
Two topics are studied in this thesis: sensitivity analysis and generalized discriminant analysis. Global sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model studies how the output variables of this last react to variations of its inputs. The methods based on the study of the variance quantify the part of variance of the response of the model due to each input variable and each subset of input variables. The first subject of this thesis is the impact of a model uncertainty on results of a sensitivity analysis. Two particular forms of uncertainty are studied: that due to a change of the model of reference, and that due to the use of a simplified model with the place of the model of reference. A second problem was studied during this thesis, that of models with correlated inputs. Indeed, classical sensitivity indices not having significance (from an interpretation point of view) in the presence of correlation of the inputs, we propose a multidimensional approach consisting in expressing the sensitivity of the output of the model to groups of correlated variables. Applications in the field of nuclear engineering illustrate this work. Generalized discriminant analysis consists in classifying the individuals of a test sample in groups, by using information contained in a training sample, when these two samples do not come from the same population. This work extends existing methods in a Gaussian context to the case of binary data. An application in public health illustrates the utility of generalized discrimination models thus defined. (author)
Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed
2011-11-15
Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.
Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.
2016-12-01
Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a
Simple Sensitivity Analysis for Orion GNC
Pressburger, Tom; Hoelscher, Brian; Martin, Rodney; Sricharan, Kumar
2013-01-01
The performance of Orion flight software, especially its GNC software, is being analyzed by running Monte Carlo simulations of Orion spacecraft flights. The simulated performance is analyzed for conformance with flight requirements, expressed as performance constraints. Flight requirements include guidance (e.g. touchdown distance from target) and control (e.g., control saturation) as well as performance (e.g., heat load constraints). The Monte Carlo simulations disperse hundreds of simulation input variables, for everything from mass properties to date of launch.We describe in this paper a sensitivity analysis tool (Critical Factors Tool or CFT) developed to find the input variables or pairs of variables which by themselves significantly influence satisfaction of requirements or significantly affect key performance metrics (e.g., touchdown distance from target). Knowing these factors can inform robustness analysis, can inform where engineering resources are most needed, and could even affect operations. The contributions of this paper include the introduction of novel sensitivity measures, such as estimating success probability, and a technique for determining whether pairs of factors are interacting dependently or independently. The tool found that input variables such as moments, mass, thrust dispersions, and date of launch were found to be significant factors for success of various requirements. Examples are shown in this paper as well as a summary and physics discussion of EFT-1 driving factors that the tool found.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.
1985-01-01
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed
Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ko, W.; Gao, F.
2012-01-01
An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT), DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX), and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyro processing (Pyro-SFR). This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC) has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fuel cycle components. The levelized fuel cycle costs (LFCC) have been derived in terms of mills/kWh for a fair comparison among the FCCs, and the results are as follows: OT 7.35 mills/kWh, DUPIC 9.06 mills/kWh, PUREX-MOX 8.94 mills/kWh, and Pyro-SFR 7.70 mills/kWh. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, a cost range has been applied to each unit cost, and an uncertainty study has been performed accordingly. A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to obtain the break-even uranium price (215$/kgU) for the Pyro-SFR against the OT, which demonstrates that the deployment of the Pyro-SFR may be economical in the foreseeable future. The influence of pyro techniques on the LFCC has also been studied to determine at which level the potential advantages of Pyro-SFR can be realized.
Sensitivity analysis of a modified energy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suganthi, L.; Jagadeesan, T.R.
1997-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is carried out to validate model formulation. A modified model has been developed to predict the future energy requirement of coal, oil and electricity, considering price, income, technological and environmental factors. The impact and sensitivity of the independent variables on the dependent variable are analysed. The error distribution pattern in the modified model as compared to a conventional time series model indicated the absence of clusters. The residual plot of the modified model showed no distinct pattern of variation. The percentage variation of error in the conventional time series model for coal and oil ranges from -20% to +20%, while for electricity it ranges from -80% to +20%. However, in the case of the modified model the percentage variation in error is greatly reduced - for coal it ranges from -0.25% to +0.15%, for oil -0.6% to +0.6% and for electricity it ranges from -10% to +10%. The upper and lower limit consumption levels at 95% confidence is determined. The consumption at varying percentage changes in price and population are analysed. The gap between the modified model predictions at varying percentage changes in price and population over the years from 1990 to 2001 is found to be increasing. This is because of the increasing rate of energy consumption over the years and also the confidence level decreases as the projection is made far into the future. (author)
Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated Software Tools, Phase I
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The objective of this proposed project is to provide a new set of sensitivity analysis theory and codes, the Sensitivity Analysis for Design Optimization Integrated...
Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.
Zi, Z
2011-11-01
With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.
A new importance measure for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu, Qiao; Homma, Toshimitsu
2010-01-01
Uncertainty is an integral part of risk assessment of complex engineering systems, such as nuclear power plants and space crafts. The aim of sensitivity analysis is to identify the contribution of the uncertainty in model inputs to the uncertainty in the model output. In this study, a new importance measure that characterizes the influence of the entire input distribution on the entire output distribution was proposed. It represents the expected deviation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the model output that would be obtained when one input parameter of interest were known. The applicability of this importance measure was tested with two models, a nonlinear nonmonotonic mathematical model and a risk model. In addition, a comparison of this new importance measure with several other importance measures was carried out and the differences between these measures were explained. (author)
DEA Sensitivity Analysis for Parallel Production Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. Gerami
2011-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we introduce systems consisting of several production units, each of which include several subunits working in parallel. Meanwhile, each subunit is working independently. The input and output of each production unit are the sums of the inputs and outputs of its subunits, respectively. We consider each of these subunits as an independent decision making unit(DMU and create the production possibility set(PPS produced by these DMUs, in which the frontier points are considered as efficient DMUs. Then we introduce models for obtaining the efficiency of the production subunits. Using super-efficiency models, we categorize all efficient subunits into different efficiency classes. Then we follow by presenting the sensitivity analysis and stability problem for efficient subunits, including extreme efficient and non-extreme efficient subunits, assuming simultaneous perturbations in all inputs and outputs of subunits such that the efficiency of the subunit under evaluation declines while the efficiencies of other subunits improve.
Sensitivity of SBLOCA analysis to model nodalization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, C.; Ito, T.; Abramson, P.B.
1983-01-01
The recent Semiscale test S-UT-8 indicates the possibility for primary liquid to hang up in the steam generators during a SBLOCA, permitting core uncovery prior to loop-seal clearance. In analysis of Small Break Loss of Coolant Accidents with RELAP5, it is found that resultant transient behavior is quite sensitive to the selection of nodalization for the steam generators. Although global parameters such as integrated mass loss, primary inventory and primary pressure are relatively insensitive to the nodalization, it is found that the predicted distribution of inventory around the primary is significantly affected by nodalization. More detailed nodalization predicts that more of the inventory tends to remain in the steam generators, resulting in less inventory in the reactor vessel and therefore causing earlier and more severe core uncovery
Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song Shufang; Lu Zhenzhou; Qiao Hongwei
2009-01-01
Based on two procedures for efficiently generating conditional samples, i.e. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and importance sampling (IS), two reliability sensitivity (RS) algorithms are presented. On the basis of reliability analysis of Subset simulation (Subsim), the RS of the failure probability with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable is transformed as a set of RS of conditional failure probabilities with respect to the distribution parameter of the basic variable. By use of the conditional samples generated by MCMC simulation and IS, procedures are established to estimate the RS of the conditional failure probabilities. The formulae of the RS estimator, its variance and its coefficient of variation are derived in detail. The results of the illustrations show high efficiency and high precision of the presented algorithms, and it is suitable for highly nonlinear limit state equation and structural system with single and multiple failure modes
Technical/economical analysis of bioenergy systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Solantausta, Y.
1998-01-01
The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: (1) To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels; (2) To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on technoeconomic basis to establish future development needs, and (3) To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned. (orig.)
Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan
2008-11-28
Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW
Factor Economic Analysis at Forestry Enterprises
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Yu. Chik
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The article studies the importance of economic analysis according to the results of research of scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists. The calculation of the influence of factors on the change in the cost of harvesting timber products by cost items has been performed. The results of the calculation of the influence of factors on the change of costs on 1 UAH are determined using the full cost of sold products. The variable and fixed costs and their distribution are allocated that influences the calculation of the impact of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. The paper singles out the general results of calculating the influence of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. According to the results of the analysis, the list of reserves for reducing the cost of production at forest enterprises was proposed. The main sources of reserves for reducing the prime cost of forest products at forest enterprises are investigated based on the conducted factor analysis.
Economic analysis of waste-to-energy industry in China.
Zhao, Xin-Gang; Jiang, Gui-Wu; Li, Ang; Wang, Ling
2016-02-01
The generation of municipal solid waste is further increasing in China with urbanization and improvement of living standards. The "12th five-year plan" period (2011-2015) promotes waste-to-energy technologies for the harmless disposal and recycling of municipal solid waste. Waste-to-energy plant plays an important role for reaching China's energy conservation and emission reduction targets. Industrial policies and market prospect of waste-to-energy industry are described. Technology, cost and benefit of waste-to-energy plant are also discussed. Based on an economic analysis of a waste-to-energy project in China (Return on Investment, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Sensitivity Analysis) the paper makes the conclusions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Economic analysis of fast reactor fuel cycle with different modes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ding Xiaoming
2014-01-01
Because of limitations on the access to technical and economic data and the lack of effective verification, the lack of in-depth study on the economy of fast reactor fuel cycle in China. This paper introduces the analysis and calculation results of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) under three different fuel cycle modes including fast reactor fuel cycle carried out by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The author used the evaluation method and hypothesis parameters provided by the MIT to carry out the sensitivity analysis for the impact of the overnight cost, the discount rate and changes of uranium price on the LCOE under three fuel cycle modes. Finally, some suggestions are proposed on the study of economy in China's fast reactor fuel cycle. (authors)
Applying economic principles to outcomes analysis.
Shauver, Melissa J; Chung, Kevin C
2013-04-01
This article presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. Types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A Readability Analysis of Selected Introductory Economics.
Gallagher, Daniel J.; Thompson, G. Rodney
1981-01-01
To aid secondary school and college level economics teachers as they select textbooks for introductory economics courses, this article recounts how teachers can use the Flesch Reading Ease Test to measure readability. Data are presented on application of the Flesch Reading Ease Test to 15 introductory economics textbooks. (Author/DB)
Systemization of burnup sensitivity analysis code (2) (Contract research)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tatsumi, Masahiro; Hyoudou, Hideaki
2008-08-01
Towards the practical use of fast reactors, it is a very important subject to improve prediction accuracy for neutronic properties in LMFBR cores from the viewpoint of improvements on plant economic efficiency with rationally high performance cores and that on reliability and safety margins. A distinct improvement on accuracy in nuclear core design has been accomplished by the development of adjusted nuclear library using the cross-section adjustment method, in which the results of critical experiments of JUPITER and so on are reflected. In the design of large LMFBR cores, however, it is important to accurately estimate not only neutronic characteristics, for example, reaction rate distribution and control rod worth but also burnup characteristics, for example, burnup reactivity loss, breeding ratio and so on. For this purpose, it is desired to improve prediction accuracy of burnup characteristics using the data widely obtained in actual core such as the experimental fast reactor 'JOYO'. The analysis of burnup characteristic is needed to effectively use burnup characteristics data in the actual cores based on the cross-section adjustment method. So far, a burnup sensitivity analysis code, SAGEP-BURN, has been developed and confirmed its effectiveness. However, there is a problem that analysis sequence become inefficient because of a big burden to users due to complexity of the theory of burnup sensitivity and limitation of the system. It is also desired to rearrange the system for future revision since it is becoming difficult to implement new functions in the existing large system. It is not sufficient to unify each computational component for the following reasons: the computational sequence may be changed for each item being analyzed or for purpose such as interpretation of physical meaning. Therefore, it is needed to systemize the current code for burnup sensitivity analysis with component blocks of functionality that can be divided or constructed on occasion
Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...
Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of Smallholders ... socio-economic characteristics which influence technical efficiency in maize production. ... Ministry of Agriculture and livestock, records, books, reports and internet.
Sensitivity Analysis of OECD Benchmark Tests in BISON
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gamble, Kyle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Schmidt, Rodney C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Williamson, Richard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2015-09-01
This report summarizes a NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) project focused on sensitivity analysis of a fuels performance benchmark problem. The benchmark problem was defined by the Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling working group of the Nuclear Science Committee, part of the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD ). The benchmark problem involv ed steady - state behavior of a fuel pin in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). The problem was created in the BISON Fuels Performance code. Dakota was used to generate and analyze 300 samples of 17 input parameters defining core boundary conditions, manuf acturing tolerances , and fuel properties. There were 24 responses of interest, including fuel centerline temperatures at a variety of locations and burnup levels, fission gas released, axial elongation of the fuel pin, etc. Pearson and Spearman correlatio n coefficients and Sobol' variance - based indices were used to perform the sensitivity analysis. This report summarizes the process and presents results from this study.
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nelly BENCHEVA
2008-11-01
Full Text Available Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.
Calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis: What's what
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trucano, T.G.; Swiler, L.P.; Igusa, T.; Oberkampf, W.L.; Pilch, M.
2006-01-01
One very simple interpretation of calibration is to adjust a set of parameters associated with a computational science and engineering code so that the model agreement is maximized with respect to a set of experimental data. One very simple interpretation of validation is to quantify our belief in the predictive capability of a computational code through comparison with a set of experimental data. Uncertainty in both the data and the code are important and must be mathematically understood to correctly perform both calibration and validation. Sensitivity analysis, being an important methodology in uncertainty analysis, is thus important to both calibration and validation. In this paper, we intend to clarify the language just used and express some opinions on the associated issues. We will endeavor to identify some technical challenges that must be resolved for successful validation of a predictive modeling capability. One of these challenges is a formal description of a 'model discrepancy' term. Another challenge revolves around the general adaptation of abstract learning theory as a formalism that potentially encompasses both calibration and validation in the face of model uncertainty
Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.
2010-11-01
This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.
Global sensitivity analysis in wind energy assessment
Tsvetkova, O.; Ouarda, T. B.
2012-12-01
Wind energy is one of the most promising renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is not yet a common source of energy, although there is enough wind potential to supply world's energy demand. One of the most prominent obstacles on the way of employing wind energy is the uncertainty associated with wind energy assessment. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) studies how the variation of input parameters in an abstract model effects the variation of the variable of interest or the output variable. It also provides ways to calculate explicit measures of importance of input variables (first order and total effect sensitivity indices) in regard to influence on the variation of the output variable. Two methods of determining the above mentioned indices were applied and compared: the brute force method and the best practice estimation procedure In this study a methodology for conducting global SA of wind energy assessment at a planning stage is proposed. Three sampling strategies which are a part of SA procedure were compared: sampling based on Sobol' sequences (SBSS), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and pseudo-random sampling (PRS). A case study of Masdar City, a showcase of sustainable living in the UAE, is used to exemplify application of the proposed methodology. Sources of uncertainty in wind energy assessment are very diverse. In the case study the following were identified as uncertain input parameters: the Weibull shape parameter, the Weibull scale parameter, availability of a wind turbine, lifetime of a turbine, air density, electrical losses, blade losses, ineffective time losses. Ineffective time losses are defined as losses during the time when the actual wind speed is lower than the cut-in speed or higher than the cut-out speed. The output variable in the case study is the lifetime energy production. Most influential factors for lifetime energy production are identified with the ranking of the total effect sensitivity indices. The results of the present
Frontier Assignment for Sensitivity Analysis of Data Envelopment Analysis
Naito, Akio; Aoki, Shingo; Tsuji, Hiroshi
To extend the sensitivity analysis capability for DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis), this paper proposes frontier assignment based DEA (FA-DEA). The basic idea of FA-DEA is to allow a decision maker to decide frontier intentionally while the traditional DEA and Super-DEA decide frontier computationally. The features of FA-DEA are as follows: (1) provides chances to exclude extra-influential DMU (Decision Making Unit) and finds extra-ordinal DMU, and (2) includes the function of the traditional DEA and Super-DEA so that it is able to deal with sensitivity analysis more flexibly. Simple numerical study has shown the effectiveness of the proposed FA-DEA and the difference from the traditional DEA.
Sensitivity analysis of Smith's AMRV model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ho, Chih-Hsiang
1995-01-01
Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameter p is elicited on the prior distribution, π (p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π (p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruption p, win eventually be averaged out by taking the expectation over π (p). We use the following priors in the analysis: priors chosen for mathematical convenience: Beta (r, s) for (r, s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1), (2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1); and three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Estimated values of hazard based on the priors chosen for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8,2), yields the highest hazard (= 2.97 X 10 -2 ). The minimum hazard is produced by the open-quotes three-expert priorclose quotes (i.e., values of p are equally likely at 10 -3 10 -2 , and 10 -1 ). The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 x which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, open-quotes hazardclose quotes, is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years
Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis
Victor Matheson
2004-01-01
Critics of economic impact studies that purport to show that mega-events such as the Olympics bring large benefits to the communities “lucky” enough to host them frequently cite the use of inappropriate multipliers as a primary reason why these impact studies overstate the true economic gains to the hosts of these events. This brief paper shows in a numerical example how mega-events may lead to inflated multipliers and exaggerated claims of economic benefits.
Wear-Out Sensitivity Analysis Project Abstract
Harris, Adam
2015-01-01
During the course of the Summer 2015 internship session, I worked in the Reliability and Maintainability group of the ISS Safety and Mission Assurance department. My project was a statistical analysis of how sensitive ORU's (Orbital Replacement Units) are to a reliability parameter called the wear-out characteristic. The intended goal of this was to determine a worst case scenario of how many spares would be needed if multiple systems started exhibiting wear-out characteristics simultaneously. The goal was also to determine which parts would be most likely to do so. In order to do this, my duties were to take historical data of operational times and failure times of these ORU's and use them to build predictive models of failure using probability distribution functions, mainly the Weibull distribution. Then, I ran Monte Carlo Simulations to see how an entire population of these components would perform. From here, my final duty was to vary the wear-out characteristic from the intrinsic value, to extremely high wear-out values and determine how much the probability of sufficiency of the population would shift. This was done for around 30 different ORU populations on board the ISS.
Supercritical extraction of oleaginous: parametric sensitivity analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Santos M.M.
2000-01-01
Full Text Available The economy has become universal and competitive, thus the industries of vegetable oil extraction must advance in the sense of minimising production costs and, at the same time, generating products that obey more rigorous patterns of quality, including solutions that do not damage the environment. The conventional oilseed processing uses hexane as solvent. However, this solvent is toxic and highly flammable. Thus the search of substitutes for hexane in oleaginous extraction process has increased in the last years. The supercritical carbon dioxide is a potential substitute for hexane, but it is necessary more detailed studies to understand the phenomena taking place in such process. Thus, in this work a diffusive model for semi-continuous (batch for the solids and continuous for the solvent isothermal and isobaric extraction process using supercritical carbon dioxide is presented and submitted to a parametric sensitivity analysis by means of a factorial design in two levels. The model parameters were disturbed and their main effects analysed, so that it is possible to propose strategies for high performance operation.
Sensitivity analysis of ranked data: from order statistics to quantiles
Heidergott, B.F.; Volk-Makarewicz, W.
2015-01-01
In this paper we provide the mathematical theory for sensitivity analysis of order statistics of continuous random variables, where the sensitivity is with respect to a distributional parameter. Sensitivity analysis of order statistics over a finite number of observations is discussed before
Economic analysis and management of climatic risks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))
1994-01-01
This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.
Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anon.
1987-01-01
Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized
Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis
Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne
2014-01-01
Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…
SENSIT: a cross-section and design sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gerstl, S.A.W.
1980-01-01
SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE
Multitarget global sensitivity analysis of n-butanol combustion.
Zhou, Dingyu D Y; Davis, Michael J; Skodje, Rex T
2013-05-02
A model for the combustion of butanol is studied using a recently developed theoretical method for the systematic improvement of the kinetic mechanism. The butanol mechanism includes 1446 reactions, and we demonstrate that it is straightforward and computationally feasible to implement a full global sensitivity analysis incorporating all the reactions. In addition, we extend our previous analysis of ignition-delay targets to include species targets. The combination of species and ignition targets leads to multitarget global sensitivity analysis, which allows for a more complete mechanism validation procedure than we previously implemented. The inclusion of species sensitivity analysis allows for a direct comparison between reaction pathway analysis and global sensitivity analysis.
Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests
Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung
2014-01-01
Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...
A multidisciplinary-economic framework of analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Piet Keizer
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination, human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities, to satisfy them closely, interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with scarce natural resources. It assumes that perfect rationality and non-sociality create a so-called economic world and analyzes the economic mechanism of allocation of scarce resources. Neoclassical economists use this world as a theoretical foundation for their empirical research. Heterodox economics rejects this strategy of isolating one motivation, a strategy that ignores the psychic and the social problem. However, the heterodox idea of human motivation, being variable and endogenous, is badly analyzed. This leads the author to construct a psychic and a social world that is completely comparable with the agent-structure model of the economic world. The three isolated worlds are integrated by analyzing the interactions between the three worlds. In the integrated world, the economic structure, the psychic structure and the social structure are one another’s foundations. This human world gives familiar economic concepts such as utility, efficiency, rationality, price, value, cost and benefit, a different meaning. Similarly, psychic concepts such as Self, willpower and personality and social concepts such as status, power, culture and morality, are given different meanings. To make the model more realistic, it should be made dynamic and historical and be placed in the context of the world as an open system.
Air Force Pilot Retention: An Economic Analysis
1993-01-01
Force impacts retention. Within the field of labor economics , an alternative labor market theory has developed which contrasts with typical competitive...this section. 60 NOTES ON CHAPTER III 1 Sherwin Rosen. "The Theory of Equalizing Differences," _Handboof•f Labor Economics , Volume 1, (New York
Sensitivity analysis in multi-parameter probabilistic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Walker, J.R.
1987-01-01
Probabilistic methods involving the use of multi-parameter Monte Carlo analysis can be applied to a wide range of engineering systems. The output from the Monte Carlo analysis is a probabilistic estimate of the system consequence, which can vary spatially and temporally. Sensitivity analysis aims to examine how the output consequence is influenced by the input parameter values. Sensitivity analysis provides the necessary information so that the engineering properties of the system can be optimized. This report details a package of sensitivity analysis techniques that together form an integrated methodology for the sensitivity analysis of probabilistic systems. The techniques have known confidence limits and can be applied to a wide range of engineering problems. The sensitivity analysis methodology is illustrated by performing the sensitivity analysis of the MCROC rock microcracking model
An ESDIRK Method with Sensitivity Analysis Capabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Morten Rode; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Thomsen, Per Grove
2004-01-01
of the sensitivity equations. A key feature is the reuse of information already computed for the state integration, hereby minimizing the extra effort required for sensitivity integration. Through case studies the new algorithm is compared to an extrapolation method and to the more established BDF based approaches...
Sensitivity Analysis of Fire Dynamics Simulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Brohus, Henrik; Nielsen, Peter V.; Petersen, Arnkell J.
2007-01-01
(Morris method). The parameters considered are selected among physical parameters and program specific parameters. The influence on the calculation result as well as the CPU time is considered. It is found that the result is highly sensitive to many parameters even though the sensitivity varies...
Women in development : issues for economic and sector analysis
Women in Development Division
1989-01-01
This paper highlights issues and action plans concerning women in economic and sector analysis and in project design. The paper focuses on the majority of women who are poor. It emphasizes measures to include women in development that contribute to economic performance, poverty reduction, slower population growth, and other broad development objectives. The paper concludes that women already contribute far more economically than is usually recognized. By expanding women's economic choices, ou...
Superconducting Accelerating Cavity Pressure Sensitivity Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodnizki, J.; Horvits, Z.; Ben Aliz, Y.; Grin, A.; Weissman, L.
2014-01-01
The measured sensitivity of the cavity was evaluated and it is full consistent with the measured values. It was explored that the tuning system (the fog structure) has a significant contribution to the cavity sensitivity. By using ribs or by modifying the rigidity of the fog we may reduce the HWR sensitivity. During cool down and warming up we have to analyze the stresses on the HWR to avoid plastic deformation to the HWR since the Niobium yield is an order of magnitude lower in room temperature
Derivative based sensitivity analysis of gamma index
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Biplab Sarkar
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Originally developed as a tool for patient-specific quality assurance in advanced treatment delivery methods to compare between measured and calculated dose distributions, the gamma index (γ concept was later extended to compare between any two dose distributions. It takes into effect both the dose difference (DD and distance-to-agreement (DTA measurements in the comparison. Its strength lies in its capability to give a quantitative value for the analysis, unlike other methods. For every point on the reference curve, if there is at least one point in the evaluated curve that satisfies the pass criteria (e.g., δDD = 1%, δDTA = 1 mm, the point is included in the quantitative score as "pass." Gamma analysis does not account for the gradient of the evaluated curve - it looks at only the minimum gamma value, and if it is <1, then the point passes, no matter what the gradient of evaluated curve is. In this work, an attempt has been made to present a derivative-based method for the identification of dose gradient. A mathematically derived reference profile (RP representing the penumbral region of 6 MV 10 cm × 10 cm field was generated from an error function. A general test profile (GTP was created from this RP by introducing 1 mm distance error and 1% dose error at each point. This was considered as the first of the two evaluated curves. By its nature, this curve is a smooth curve and would satisfy the pass criteria for all points in it. The second evaluated profile was generated as a sawtooth test profile (STTP which again would satisfy the pass criteria for every point on the RP. However, being a sawtooth curve, it is not a smooth one and would be obviously poor when compared with the smooth profile. Considering the smooth GTP as an acceptable profile when it passed the gamma pass criteria (1% DD and 1 mm DTA against the RP, the first and second order derivatives of the DDs (δD', δD" between these two curves were derived and used as the
MOVES2010a regional level sensitivity analysis
2012-12-10
This document discusses the sensitivity of various input parameter effects on emission rates using the US Environmental Protection Agencys (EPAs) MOVES2010a model at the regional level. Pollutants included in the study are carbon monoxide (CO),...
Economic impact analysis of short line railroads.
2014-10-01
This research project assesses the economic role and impact of short line railroads in the state of Louisiana. While relatively small in : scope, with 11 operators and approximately 500 miles of track, short line railroads play a significant role in ...
Sensitivity analysis of energy demands on performance of CCHP system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, C.Z.; Shi, Y.M.; Huang, X.H.
2008-01-01
Sensitivity analysis of energy demands is carried out in this paper to study their influence on performance of CCHP system. Energy demand is a very important and complex factor in the optimization model of CCHP system. Average, uncertainty and historical peaks are adopted to describe energy demands. The mix-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) which can reflect the three aspects of energy demands is established. Numerical studies are carried out based on energy demands of a hotel and a hospital. The influence of average, uncertainty and peaks of energy demands on optimal facility scheme and economic advantages of CCHP system are investigated. The optimization results show that the optimal GT's capacity and economy of CCHP system mainly lie on the average energy demands. Sum of capacities of GB and HE is equal to historical heating demand peaks, and sum of capacities of AR and ER are equal to historical cooling demand peaks. Maximum of PG is sensitive with historical peaks of energy demands and not influenced by uncertainty of energy demands, while the corresponding influence on DH is adverse
Micosoft Excel Sensitivity Analysis for Linear and Stochastic Program Feed Formulation
Sensitivity analysis is a part of mathematical programming solutions and is used in making nutritional and economic decisions for a given feed formulation problem. The terms, shadow price and reduced cost, are familiar linear program (LP) terms to feed formulators. Because of the nonlinear nature of...
Vonk Noordegraaf, A.; Nielen, M.; Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2003-01-01
Simulation is a frequently applied tool in the discipline of animal health economics. Application of sensitivity analysis, however, is often limited to changing only one factor at a time (OAT designs). In this study, the statistical techniques of Design of Experiments (DOE) and regression
The economic impact of pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia
Graave, Elisabeth J.E.; Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.
2017-01-01
In this article, we calculate the economic impact of pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela in the NUTS 2 region Galicia (Spain) in 2010. This economic impact is relevant to policymakers and other stakeholders dealing with religious tourism in Galicia. The analysis is based on the Input-Output model.
Techno-economic sensitivity study of heliostat field parameters for micro-gas turbine CSP
Landman, Willem A.; Gauché, Paul; Dinter, Frank; Myburgh, J. T.
2017-06-01
Concentrating solar power systems based on micro-gas turbines potentially offer numerous benefits should they become commercially viable. Heliostat fields for such systems have unique requirements in that the number of heliostats and the focal ratios are typically much lower than conventional central receiver systems. This paper presents a techno-economic sensitivity study of heliostat field parameters for a micro-gas turbine central receiver system. A 100 kWe minitower system is considered for the base case and a one-at-a-time strategy is used to investigate parameter sensitivities. Increasing heliostat focal ratios are found to have significant optical performance benefits due to both a reduction in astigmatic aberrations and a reduction in the number of facet focal lengths required; confirming the hypothesis that smaller heliostats offer a techno-economic advantage. Fixed Horizontal Axis tracking mechanism is shown to outperform the conventional Azimuth Zenith tracking mechanism in high density heliostat fields. Although several improvements to heliostat field performance are discussed, the capex fraction of the heliostat field for such system is shown to be almost half that of a conventional central receiver system and optimum utilization of the higher capex components, namely; the receiver and turbine subsystems, are more rewarding than that of the heliostat field.
Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C
This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....
Sensitivity analysis of hybrid power systems using Power Pinch Analysis considering Feed-in Tariff
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mohammad Rozali, Nor Erniza; Wan Alwi, Sharifah Rafidah; Manan, Zainuddin Abdul; Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír
2016-01-01
Feed-in Tariff (FiT) has been one of the most effective policies in accelerating the development of renewable energy (RE) projects. The amount of RE electricity in the FiT purchase agreement is an important decision that has to be made by the RE project developers. They have to consider various crucial factors associated with RE system operation as well as its stochastic nature. The presented work aims to assess the sensitivity and profitability of a hybrid power system (HPS) in cases of RE system failure or shutdown. The amount of RE electricity for the FiT purchase agreement in various scenarios was determined using a novel tool called On-Grid Problem Table based on the Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA). A sensitivity table has also been introduced to assist planners to evaluate the effects of the RE system's failure on the profitability of the HPS. This table offers insights on the variance of the RE electricity. The sensitivity analysis of various possible scenarios shows that the RE projects can still provide financial benefits via the FiT, despite the losses incurred from the penalty levied. - Highlights: • A Power Pinch Analysis (PoPA) tool to assess the economics of an HPS with FiT. • The new On-Grid Problem Table for targeting the available RE electricity for FiT sale. • A sensitivity table showing the effect of RE electricity changes on the HPS profitability.
NPV Sensitivity Analysis: A Dynamic Excel Approach
Mangiero, George A.; Kraten, Michael
2017-01-01
Financial analysts generally create static formulas for the computation of NPV. When they do so, however, it is not readily apparent how sensitive the value of NPV is to changes in multiple interdependent and interrelated variables. It is the aim of this paper to analyze this variability by employing a dynamic, visually graphic presentation using…
Sensitivity Analysis for Multidisciplinary Systems (SAMS)
2016-12-01
release. Distribution is unlimited. 14 Server and Client Code Server from geometry import Point, Geometry import math import zmq class Server...public release; Distribution is unlimited. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A: Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited. 19 Example Application Boeing...Materials Conference, 2011. Cross, D. M., Local continuum sensitivity method for shape design derivatives using spatial gradient reconstruction. Diss
Sensitivity of promising cherry hybrids and new cultivars to economically important fungal diseases
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Vasileva
2016-09-01
Full Text Available Abstract. As a result of years of developing the breeding programme for creating novel sweet cherry cultivars in the Fruit Growing Institute (FGI, Plovdiv, a reach hybrid fund from first and second hybrid generation is created. Of the selected and propagated hybrids at a more advanced stage of testing are 11 hybrids along with three new cultivars of the FGI Plovdiv ('Kossara', 'Rosalina' and 'Trakiiska hrushtyalka' grafted on three rootstocks were tested for sensitivity to causers of economically important fungal diseases in sweet cherry - cherry leaf spot (Blumeriella jaapii (Rehm Arx, shothole blight (Stigmina carpophila (Lev. Ellis and brown rot (Monilinia fructigena (G. Wint Honey. The degree of infestation under field conditions is reported by determining the index of attack on leaves and fruit, using the formula of McKinney. As the most sensitive elites are outlined elite El.17-31 (to cherry leaf spot and elite El.17-136 (to shothole blight. The cultivars 'Kossara' and 'Trakiiska hrushtyalka' exhibit an average resistance to the three diseases, as the values for the index of infestation are lower or similar to those of standard cultivars 'Van' and 'Bing', while 'Rosalina' demonstrated sensitivity to shothole blight and brown rot. Interesting is the elite El.17- 37 demonstrating the least infestation of Blumeriella jaapii - 7.33% and Monilinia fructigena - 6.67%. The same has a set of valuable qualities as late maturing date and very large fruits with excellent sensory profile, making it a potential candidate cultivar.
Economics In Optical Design, Analysis, And Production
Willey, Ronald R.
1983-10-01
There are indications that we are entering an era wherein economics will play an increasing role in the optical design and production process. Economics has always been a factor in the competition between commercial ventures in the product arena. Now, we may begin to see competition between different technologies for the scarce resources of the society, including money. A proper design approach begins with a thorough examination and refinement of the requirements from the top down. The interrelationships of the various components must be properly understood and balanced. The specifications must be clear, complete, and realistic. Improper or incomplete system design can cause an extensive waste of resources. The detail optical design to meet the performance requirements has sometimes been the only part of the process that the designer has considered his own responsibility. The final optimization should also consider economic related factors: the cost of tolerances, the available tools test plates, materials, and test equipment. In the preliminary design stage, he should have decided which alignment and test methods are most appropriate to the system. The distribution of tolerances in an optical/mechanical system is a frequently neglected opportunity to reduce cost. We have reported previously on our work in this area, and expand further on it in the context of this paper. The designer now has an opportunity to generate better designs at a lower cost that are more economical to produce. The watchword for the 1980's may become the one found in the assembly automation industry: "more, better, for less".
Directors’ and Officers’ Liability: Economic Analysis
P. C. Leyens (Patrick); M.G. Faure (Michael)
2017-01-01
markdownabstractThis paper will be published as a chapter of the forthcoming volume ‘Directors & Officers Liability’ edited by Simon F. Deakin, Helmut Koziol, and Olaf Riss. It explores D&O liability from a law and economics perspective with a view to identify trade-offs of different legal settings.
Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Johnson, M.; Zhao, H.
2013-01-01
Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)
The role of sensitivity analysis in probabilistic safety assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hirschberg, S.; Knochenhauer, M.
1987-01-01
The paper describes several items suitable for close examination by means of application of sensitivity analysis, when performing a level 1 PSA. Sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to; (1) boundary conditions, (2) operator actions, and (3) treatment of common cause failures (CCFs). The items of main interest are identified continuously in the course of performing a PSA, as well as by scrutinising the final results. The practical aspects of sensitivity analysis are illustrated by several applications from a recent PSA study (ASEA-ATOM BWR 75). It is concluded that sensitivity analysis leads to insights important for analysts, reviewers and decision makers. (orig./HP)
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Suparna Wijaya
2017-03-01
Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth
Automated sensitivity analysis using the GRESS language
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.; Wright, R.Q.
1986-04-01
An automated procedure for performing large-scale sensitivity studies based on the use of computer calculus is presented. The procedure is embodied in a FORTRAN precompiler called GRESS, which automatically processes computer models and adds derivative-taking capabilities to the normal calculated results. In this report, the GRESS code is described, tested against analytic and numerical test problems, and then applied to a major geohydrological modeling problem. The SWENT nuclear waste repository modeling code is used as the basis for these studies. Results for all problems are discussed in detail. Conclusions are drawn as to the applicability of GRESS in the problems at hand and for more general large-scale modeling sensitivity studies
Sensitivity Analysis of a Simplified Fire Dynamic Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt; Nielsen, Anker
2015-01-01
This paper discusses a method for performing a sensitivity analysis of parameters used in a simplified fire model for temperature estimates in the upper smoke layer during a fire. The results from the sensitivity analysis can be used when individual parameters affecting fire safety are assessed...
Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.
2010-06-01
A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.
Economic Analysis of Pyro-SFR Fuel Cycle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gao, Fanxing; Park, Byungheung; Kwon, Eunha; Ko, Wonil
2010-01-01
In this study, based on the material flow the economics of Pyro-SFR has been estimated. These are mainly two methodologies to perform nuclear fuel cycle cost study which is based on the material flow calculations. One is equilibrium model and the other is dynamic model. Equilibrium model focus on the batch study with the assumptions that the whole system is in a steady state and mass flow as well as the electricity production all through the fuel cycle is in equilibrium state, which calculates the electricity production within a certain period and associated material flow with reference to unit cost in order to obtain the cost of electricity. Dynamic model takes the time factor into consideration to simulate the actual cases. Compared with the dynamic analysis model, the outcome of equilibrium model is more theoretical comparisons, especially with regard to the large uncertainty of the development of the pyro-technology evaluated. In this study equilibrium model was built to calculate the material flow on a batch basis. With the unit cost being determined, the cost of each step of fuel cycle could be obtained, so does the FMC. Due to the unavoidable uncertainty with certain unit costs, evaluated cost range and uncertainty study are applied. Sensitivity analysis has also been performed to obtain the breakeven uranium price for Pyro-SFR against PWR-O T. Economics of Pyro-SFR fuel cycle scenario has been calculated and compared by employing equilibrium model. The LFCC were obtained, Pyro-SFR 7.68 mills/kWh. The Uranium price is the dominant driver of LFCC. Pyro-techniques also weight considerably in Pyro-SFR scenario. On consideration of the current unavoidable uncertainties introduced by certain cost data, cost range and triangle techniques were used to perform the uncertainty study which indicates that the gap between Pyro-SFR and PWR-O T fuel cycle scenario is relatively small
Economic analysis of wood energy valorization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fries, Juliana.
1988-01-01
Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs
Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital
Uzawa, Hirofumi
2005-06-01
Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term Ã¦social common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.
Economic analysis of the global polio eradication initiative.
Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Cochi, Stephen L; Wassilak, Steven G F; Linkins, Jennifer; Sutter, Roland W; Aylward, R Bruce; Thompson, Kimberly M
2010-12-16
The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then. This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the program as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, we consider the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by two distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. We estimate GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), we estimate poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. Cost-effectiveness ratios for the GPEI vs. only routine vaccination qualify as highly cost-effective based on standard criteria. We estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI between 1988 and 2035 of approximately 40-50 billion dollars (2008 US dollars; 1988 net present values). Despite the high costs of achieving eradication in low-income countries, low-income countries account for approximately 85% of the total net benefits generated by the GPEI in the base case analysis. The total economic costs saved per prevented paralytic poliomyelitis case drive the incremental net benefits, which become positive even if we estimate the loss in productivity as a result of disability as below the recommended value of one year in average per-capita gross national income per disability-adjusted life year saved. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the finding of positive net benefits of the GPEI remains
Fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis study.
Kotsis, Sandra V; Chung, Kevin C
2010-02-01
The use of economic evaluation in surgery is scarce. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery, in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. This article, part of a tutorial series on evidence-based medicine, focuses on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis. The authors include the essential aspects of conducting a surgical cost-utility analysis by considering perspectives, costs, outcomes, and utilities. The authors also describe and give examples of how to conduct the analyses (including calculating quality-adjusted life-years and discounting), how to interpret the results, and how to report the results. Although economic analyses are not simple to conduct, a well-conducted one provides many rewards, such as recommending the adoption of a more effective treatment. For comparing and interpreting economic analysis publications, it is important that all studies use consistent methodology and report the results in a similar manner.
Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation
Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten
2015-04-01
Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.
Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1983-01-01
In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures
Economic data used in working group 5 analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haffner, D.R.; Parker, M.B.
1979-03-01
This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)
Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.
1986-01-01
An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analysis has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with direct and adjoint sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies
Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.
Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis
2015-01-01
Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the
Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Georgios Arampatzis
Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1987-12-01
This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required. 6 figs., 12 tabs
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
L. SABAU
2009-05-01
Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .
Basis of economic analysis of Czech firms
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gabriela Chmelíková
2010-01-01
Full Text Available When looking for connections between particular business’s activities, theory of financial management uses pyramidal system of indicators. The effectiveness of this tool is based on the appropriate choice of the top indicator. Its decomposition enables to manage firm’s processes from the bottommost organizational levels to the main firm’s mission with respect to the connections between particular processes. The aim of this paper was to identify appropriate indicator, which corresponds with creation of firm’s value and design its decomposition. To measure creation of firm’s value it is nowadays very popular to use indicator Economic Value Added (EVA. Though from the theoretical point of view EVA is seen as a superior performance metric, the results of some empirical studies do not support this claim. That is why the information content of EVA was controlled in the concrete conditions of Czech Economy within this article. The results showed eligibility of using EVA in Czech firms and enabled to choose it as the top indicator in the pyramidal system. Ambition of further research is to design a complex of indicators offering a comprehensive economic view on the firm’s performance.
Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ford, Melanie
2007-01-01
Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed
Scrutinizing The Epistemology of Islamic Economics: A Historical Analysis
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Nurizal Ismail
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The first International Conference on Islamic Economics was held in Makkah, in 1976. Economists, jurists and scholars met together to discuss issues of Muslim ummah. However, there was many books written related to Islamic economics in the history of Islamic civilization, especially in the period of Abbasid caliphate. The fact, development of knowledge in Islamic medieval had established the epistemology of Islamic economics itself. Moreover, the epistemology is a study of the theory of knowledge, the source of knowledge, the application of knowledge and limitation of knowledge. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the contribution of earlier Muslim thinkers to the source of Islamic economics and to identify the epistemology of Islamic economics as proposed by the Muslim thinkers in medieval period. As a result, this paper will propose the epistemology of Islamic economics by integrating Islamic heritage and modern economics that is not conflict with Islamic principles and values. To achieve its objectives; this study employs qualitative research by applying content and descriptive analysis. The finding of this study is that the earlier Muslim thinkers have contributed to the construction of epistemology in Islamic economics. Then, to construct the genuine of Islamic economics, tawhid must be put as a core of Islamic economic epistemology that directs the sources of knowledge which are rooted firstly from revealed and then rational knowledge by using appropriate methods.
An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.
2013-08-01
Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...
Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using Steam ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
acer
Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using. Steam Distillation ... The return on investment (ROI) was 125%, internal rate of return ... oils, over dependency on petrodollar and ... The steam may be obtained from external boiler or.
Refurbishment of Railroad Crossties : A Technical and Economic Analysis
1977-12-01
An analysis of the principal modes of failure for wooden railroad crossties was conducted and an evaluation of the technical and economic feasibility of refurbishing these ties was conducted. Among the principal modes of structural deterioration, onl...
The Scrap Tire Problem: A Preliminary Economic Analysis (1985)
The purpose of the study was to conduct a preliminary economic analysis of the social benefits of EPA action to require more appropriate disposal of scrap tires versus the social costs of such an action.
Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo local government, Osun state. ... Majority (78.3%) of the processors and marketers were making profit; 95.0% operate ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT
Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State | Kudi ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State. ... The paper examines the marketing channel, structure, conduct, performance and marketing margin and efficiency of sesame. A sample of ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT
Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government Area Of Cross River State, Nigeria. ... Characteristics of the sellers, marketing channels, marketing margin and efficiency were also ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT
Economic Analysis of Immunization Strategies for PRRS Control [corrected].
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel C L Linhares
Full Text Available Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv is a swine-specific pathogen that causes significant increases in production costs. When a breeding herd becomes infected, in an attempt to hasten control and elimination of PRRSv, some veterinarians have adopted a strategy called load-close-expose which consists of interrupting replacement pig introductions into the herd for several weeks (herd closure and exposing the whole herd to a replicating PRRSv to boost herd immunity. Either modified-live virus (MLV vaccine or live field-virus inoculation (FVI is used. This study consisted of partial budget analyses to compare MLV to FVI as the exposure method of load-close-expose program to control and eliminate PRRSv from infected breeding herds, and secondly to estimate benefit / cost of vaccinating sow herds preventatively. Under the assumptions used in this study, MLV held economic advantage over FVI. However, sensitivity analysis revealed that decreasing margin over variable costs below $ 47.32, or increasing PRRSv-attributed cost above $18.89 or achieving time-to-stability before 25 weeks resulted in advantage of FVI over MLV. Preventive vaccination of sow herds was beneficial when the frequency of PRRSv infection was at least every 1 year and 9 months [corrected]. The economics of preventative vaccination was minimally affected by cost attributed to field-type PRRSv infection on growing pigs or by the breeding herd productivity level. The models developed and described in this paper provide valuable tools to assist veterinarians in their efforts to control PRRSv.
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUILDINGS REHABILITATION SOLUTIONS
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STAN IVAN F.E.
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The paper includes a simplified economical and financial analysis of the buildings rehabilitation solutions, for heating and lighting. The most important economic and financial indicators analyzed and determined are: economic return on investment and payback period of investment in dynamic form, net present value, and internal rate of return economic residual value of the investment on thermal insulation, building maintenance costs, energy costs. In order to reduce the electricity consumption: the methods consisted in replacing inefficient lighting with some efficient energy and for heat consumption: the proposed solution was building rehabilitation (exterior wall insulation, floor insulation board. The analysis consists in determining the economical and financial indicators before and after the building rehabilitation. The 3 rooms apartment is located in Craiova town, (wind zone IV, 2nd floor, orientation is S.
1986-06-01
la Armada (EMGAR)-- Staff of the Navy ------------------------- 18 b. Direction de Presupuesto Programac ion Ecomica (DIPPE)-Direction of Budget and...Economic Programming -------------------- 18 c. Cornite De Programacion y Presupuesto (CPP)-- Programming and Budget Committee-----------18 3. Major...development. This analysis is included in the annual budget. b. Direction de Presupuesto Programaclon Ecomica (DIPPE)- Direction of Budget and Economic
Standardization: using comparative maintenance costs in an economic analysis
Clark, Roger Nelson
1987-01-01
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis investigates the use of comparative maintenance costs of functionally interchangeable equipments in similar U.S. Navy shipboard applications in an economic analysis of standardization. The economics of standardization, life-cycle costing, and the Navy 3-M System are discussed in general. An analysis of 3-M System maintenance costs for a selected equipment, diesel engines, is conducted. The potential use of comparative ma...
An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.
Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R
1978-07-01
This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.
Sensitivity Analysis Based on Markovian Integration by Parts Formula
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Yongsheng Hang
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Sensitivity analysis is widely applied in financial risk management and engineering; it describes the variations brought by the changes of parameters. Since the integration by parts technique for Markov chains is well developed in recent years, in this paper we apply it for computation of sensitivity and show the closed-form expressions for two commonly-used time-continuous Markovian models. By comparison, we conclude that our approach outperforms the existing technique of computing sensitivity on Markovian models.
The role of sensitivity analysis in assessing uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crick, M.J.; Hill, M.D.
1987-01-01
Outside the specialist world of those carrying out performance assessments considerable confusion has arisen about the meanings of sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis. In this paper we attempt to reduce this confusion. We then go on to review approaches to sensitivity analysis within the context of assessing uncertainty, and to outline the types of test available to identify sensitive parameters, together with their advantages and disadvantages. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors; they have not been formally endorsed by the National Radiological Protection Board and should not be interpreted as Board advice
Analysis of Sensitivity Experiments - An Expanded Primer
2017-03-08
conducted with this purpose in mind. Due diligence must be paid to the structure of the dosage levels and to the number of trials. The chosen data...analysis. System reliability is of paramount importance for protecting both the investment of funding and human life . Failing to accurately estimate
Sensitivity analysis of hybrid thermoelastic techniques
W.A. Samad; J.M. Considine
2017-01-01
Stress functions have been used as a complementary tool to support experimental techniques, such as thermoelastic stress analysis (TSA) and digital image correlation (DIC), in an effort to evaluate the complete and separate full-field stresses of loaded structures. The need for such coupling between experimental data and stress functions is due to the fact that...
Automating sensitivity analysis of computer models using computer calculus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oblow, E.M.; Pin, F.G.
1985-01-01
An automated procedure for performing sensitivity analyses has been developed. The procedure uses a new FORTRAN compiler with computer calculus capabilities to generate the derivatives needed to set up sensitivity equations. The new compiler is called GRESS - Gradient Enhanced Software System. Application of the automated procedure with ''direct'' and ''adjoint'' sensitivity theory for the analysis of non-linear, iterative systems of equations is discussed. Calculational efficiency consideration and techniques for adjoint sensitivity analysis are emphasized. The new approach is found to preserve the traditional advantages of adjoint theory while removing the tedious human effort previously needed to apply this theoretical methodology. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of the automated procedure in numerical analysis and large-scale modelling sensitivity studies. 24 refs., 2 figs
SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO ECONOMICS DATA
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Hossein HASSANI; Anatoly ZHIGLJAVSKY
2009-01-01
This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstrate that it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting, particulary for economic time series. The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian national accounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of lran.
Background effects of emergencies on indicators of economic analysis of enterprise economic activity
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K.Yu. Polyak
2017-03-01
Full Text Available The paper deals with the study of scientific works on the issue of formation and development of organizational and methodological regulations of accounting and analytical support of the economic activity of an enterprise in emergencies, which led to the conclusion about the complex character of the study of theory, methodology and economic analysis of enterprises in various sectors of national economy. The author studies the approaches to the nature and methods of economic analysis that resulted in the presentation of instructional techniques to the economic structure. In assessing the consequences of emergencies, it is necessary to determine their impact on the indices of economic analysis; so, there was the need to define areas resulting index changes as a result of emergency situations by identifying its components which may affect emergencies. After analyzing the data, it was found that the consequences of emergency situations affecting the indices of business analysis and can lead to changes in management decisions of internal and external users.
Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science
Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.
2015-01-01
The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.
Sensitivity Analysis of the Critical Speed in Railway Vehicle Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bigoni, Daniele; True, Hans; Engsig-Karup, Allan Peter
2014-01-01
We present an approach to global sensitivity analysis aiming at the reduction of its computational cost without compromising the results. The method is based on sampling methods, cubature rules, High-Dimensional Model Representation and Total Sensitivity Indices. The approach has a general applic...
Global and Local Sensitivity Analysis Methods for a Physical System
Morio, Jerome
2011-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the different input variations of a mathematical model influence the variability of its output. In this paper, we review the principle of global and local sensitivity analyses of a complex black-box system. A simulated case of application is given at the end of this paper to compare both approaches.…
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of high frequency structures with Matlab
Bakr, Mohamed; Demir, Veysel
2017-01-01
This book covers the theory of adjoint sensitivity analysis and uses the popular FDTD (finite-difference time-domain) method to show how wideband sensitivities can be efficiently estimated for different types of materials and structures. It includes a variety of MATLAB® examples to help readers absorb the content more easily.
Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries
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Klimis Vogiatzoglou
2016-11-01
Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.
The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.
Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien
2010-01-01
The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts.
From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hoffmann, T.
2006-05-04
The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.
TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho
2009-09-01
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.
Economic analysis of nuclear power generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Song, Ki Dong; Lee, Han Myeong; Lee, Man Kee; Moon, Ki Hwan; Kim, Seung Soo; Kim, Seong Ki; Lee, Yeong Ki
1993-12-01
As CO 2 emission is recognized as the one of the major causes of the global worming, international CO 2 emission regulation has been of great concern and has been discussed actively on the global level. Several means of CO 2 emission regulation have been raised and have received much attention recently. CO 2 emission regulation is expected to affect the national economy as well as the national energy policy. Since the electricity sector closely interacts with CO 2 emission, environmental regulation has the possibility of implementation in this sector. Considering the enormous role played by electricity in the national economy, it is very important to study the effect of environmental regulation on the electricity sector. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal cost of CO 2 emission by analyzing the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on the electricity sector in terms of capacity and generation mix. This information can be used effectively in energy policy establishment. In addition, the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on economic viability of electricity generating type is also being studied in order to contribute to the establishment of Electric System Expansion Planning in Korea
Dispersion sensitivity analysis & consistency improvement of APFSDS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sangeeta Sharma Panda
2017-08-01
In Bore Balloting Motion simulation shows that reduction in residual spin by about 5% results in drastic 56% reduction in first maximum yaw. A correlation between first maximum yaw and residual spin is observed. Results of data analysis are used in design modification for existing ammunition. Number of designs are evaluated numerically before freezing five designs for further soundings. These designs are critically assessed in terms of their comparative performance during In-bore travel & external ballistics phase. Results are validated by free flight trials for the finalised design.
Adjoint sensitivity analysis of plasmonic structures using the FDTD method.
Zhang, Yu; Ahmed, Osman S; Bakr, Mohamed H
2014-05-15
We present an adjoint variable method for estimating the sensitivities of arbitrary responses with respect to the parameters of dispersive discontinuities in nanoplasmonic devices. Our theory is formulated in terms of the electric field components at the vicinity of perturbed discontinuities. The adjoint sensitivities are computed using at most one extra finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) simulation regardless of the number of parameters. Our approach is illustrated through the sensitivity analysis of an add-drop coupler consisting of a square ring resonator between two parallel waveguides. The computed adjoint sensitivities of the scattering parameters are compared with those obtained using the accurate but computationally expensive central finite difference approach.
Sensitivity analysis of the RESRAD, a dose assessment code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, C.; Cheng, J.J.; Zielen, A.J.
1991-01-01
The RESRAD code is a pathway analysis code that is designed to calculate radiation doses and derive soil cleanup criteria for the US Department of Energy's environmental restoration and waste management program. the RESRAD code uses various pathway and consumption-rate parameters such as soil properties and food ingestion rates in performing such calculations and derivations. As with any predictive model, the accuracy of the predictions depends on the accuracy of the input parameters. This paper summarizes the results of a sensitivity analysis of RESRAD input parameters. Three methods were used to perform the sensitivity analysis: (1) Gradient Enhanced Software System (GRESS) sensitivity analysis software package developed at oak Ridge National Laboratory; (2) direct perturbation of input parameters; and (3) built-in graphic package that shows parameter sensitivities while the RESRAD code is operational
A sensitivity analysis approach to optical parameters of scintillation detectors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghal-Eh, N.; Koohi-Fayegh, R.
2008-01-01
In this study, an extended version of the Monte Carlo light transport code, PHOTRACK, has been used for a sensitivity analysis to estimate the importance of different wavelength-dependent parameters in the modelling of light collection process in scintillators
sensitivity analysis on flexible road pavement life cycle cost model
African Journals Online (AJOL)
user
of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study .... organizations and specific projects needs based. Life-cycle ... developed and completed urban road infrastructure corridor ...
Sobol’ sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee colonies
We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather...
Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.
Hoffmann, Sandra
2011-09-01
Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.
Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Foutes, C.E.
1987-01-01
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were developed and input into the analysis. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. Total costs of each level of a standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, was calculated for each alternative standard. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis
Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2001-01-01
This introductory tutorial gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what if-or sensitivity analysis in simulation.This analysis uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as
Sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for knapsack problems
Ghosh, D; Chakravarti, N; Sierksma, G
2006-01-01
In this paper, we carry out parametric analysis as well as a tolerance limit based sensitivity analysis of a greedy heuristic for two knapsack problems-the 0-1 knapsack problem and the subset sum problem. We carry out the parametric analysis based on all problem parameters. In the tolerance limit
Sensitivity analysis of numerical solutions for environmental fluid problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanaka, Nobuatsu; Motoyama, Yasunori
2003-01-01
In this study, we present a new numerical method to quantitatively analyze the error of numerical solutions by using the sensitivity analysis. If a reference case of typical parameters is one calculated with the method, no additional calculation is required to estimate the results of the other numerical parameters such as more detailed solutions. Furthermore, we can estimate the strict solution from the sensitivity analysis results and can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the numerical solution by calculating the numerical error. (author)
Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mirna Rahmah Lubis
2010-06-01
Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression
Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers
Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard
2012-01-01
The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…
Adkins, Daniel E.; McClay, Joseph L.; Vunck, Sarah A.; Batman, Angela M.; Vann, Robert E.; Clark, Shaunna L.; Souza, Renan P.; Crowley, James J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; van den Oord, Edwin J.C.G.; Beardsley, Patrick M.
2014-01-01
Behavioral sensitization has been widely studied in animal models and is theorized to reflect neural modifications associated with human psychostimulant addiction. While the mesolimbic dopaminergic pathway is known to play a role, the neurochemical mechanisms underlying behavioral sensitization remain incompletely understood. In the present study, we conducted the first metabolomics analysis to globally characterize neurochemical differences associated with behavioral sensitization. Methamphetamine-induced sensitization measures were generated by statistically modeling longitudinal activity data for eight inbred strains of mice. Subsequent to behavioral testing, nontargeted liquid and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry profiling was performed on 48 brain samples, yielding 301 metabolite levels per sample after quality control. Association testing between metabolite levels and three primary dimensions of behavioral sensitization (total distance, stereotypy and margin time) showed four robust, significant associations at a stringent metabolome-wide significance threshold (false discovery rate < 0.05). Results implicated homocarnosine, a dipeptide of GABA and histidine, in total distance sensitization, GABA metabolite 4-guanidinobutanoate and pantothenate in stereotypy sensitization, and myo-inositol in margin time sensitization. Secondary analyses indicated that these associations were independent of concurrent methamphetamine levels and, with the exception of the myo-inositol association, suggest a mechanism whereby strain-based genetic variation produces specific baseline neurochemical differences that substantially influence the magnitude of MA-induced sensitization. These findings demonstrate the utility of mouse metabolomics for identifying novel biomarkers, and developing more comprehensive neurochemical models, of psychostimulant sensitization. PMID:24034544
Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.
2001-01-01
This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)
High sensitivity analysis of atmospheric gas elements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Miwa, Shiro; Nomachi, Ichiro; Kitajima, Hideo
2006-01-01
We have investigated the detection limit of H, C and O in Si, GaAs and InP using a Cameca IMS-4f instrument equipped with a modified vacuum system to improve the detection limit with a lower sputtering rate We found that the detection limits for H, O and C are improved by employing a primary ion bombardment before the analysis. Background levels of 1 x 10 17 atoms/cm 3 for H, of 3 x 10 16 atoms/cm 3 for C and of 2 x 10 16 atoms/cm 3 for O could be achieved in silicon with a sputtering rate of 2 nm/s after a primary ion bombardment for 160 h. We also found that the use of a 20 K He cryo-panel near the sample holder was effective for obtaining better detection limits in a shorter time, although the final detection limits using the panel are identical to those achieved without it
High sensitivity analysis of atmospheric gas elements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miwa, Shiro [Materials Analysis Lab., Sony Corporation, 4-16-1 Okata, Atsugi 243-0021 (Japan)]. E-mail: Shiro.Miwa@jp.sony.com; Nomachi, Ichiro [Materials Analysis Lab., Sony Corporation, 4-16-1 Okata, Atsugi 243-0021 (Japan); Kitajima, Hideo [Nanotechnos Corp., 5-4-30 Nishihashimoto, Sagamihara 229-1131 (Japan)
2006-07-30
We have investigated the detection limit of H, C and O in Si, GaAs and InP using a Cameca IMS-4f instrument equipped with a modified vacuum system to improve the detection limit with a lower sputtering rate We found that the detection limits for H, O and C are improved by employing a primary ion bombardment before the analysis. Background levels of 1 x 10{sup 17} atoms/cm{sup 3} for H, of 3 x 10{sup 16} atoms/cm{sup 3} for C and of 2 x 10{sup 16} atoms/cm{sup 3} for O could be achieved in silicon with a sputtering rate of 2 nm/s after a primary ion bombardment for 160 h. We also found that the use of a 20 K He cryo-panel near the sample holder was effective for obtaining better detection limits in a shorter time, although the final detection limits using the panel are identical to those achieved without it.
Sensitivity Analysis of BLISK Airfoil Wear †
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andreas Kellersmann
2018-05-01
Full Text Available The decreasing performance of jet engines during operation is a major concern for airlines and maintenance companies. Among other effects, the erosion of high-pressure compressor (HPC blades is a critical one and leads to a changed aerodynamic behavior, and therefore to a change in performance. The maintenance of BLISKs (blade-integrated-disks is especially challenging because the blade arrangement cannot be changed and individual blades cannot be replaced. Thus, coupled deteriorated blades have a complex aerodynamic behavior which can have a stronger influence on compressor performance than a conventional HPC. To ensure effective maintenance for BLISKs, the impact of coupled misshaped blades are the key factor. The present study addresses these effects on the aerodynamic performance of a first-stage BLISK of a high-pressure compressor. Therefore, a design of experiments (DoE is done to identify the geometric properties which lead to a reduction in performance. It is shown that the effect of coupled variances is dependent on the operating point. Based on the DoE analysis, the thickness-related parameters, the stagger angle, and the max. profile camber as coupled parameters are identified as the most important parameters for all operating points.
Economic analysis of radiodiagnostic equipment use
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kochetova, G.P.; Turaev, R.N.
1984-01-01
The method for calculating costs for performing radiotdiagnostic investigation is suggested, analysis of structure of these costs and their dependence on output and working in shifts is given. As example the calculation of costs for performing radiodiagnostic investigations on gamma cameras with a computer and without it and on a scanner using fabricated radiopharmaceuticals and short-lived radionuclides. The developed technique for costs calculation for radiodignostic investigation permits to determine the cost of performing any investigation in changing values of any cost components. The analysis of the cost stucture for the investigation and dependence on apparatus capacity permit to contemplate the methods of reducing costs and raising apparatus use efficiency. One of these methods is transition to double-shift work of scintigraphic rooms equipped in the first place by gamma-cameras with computers
Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics
Sener, Adil Caner
This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be
Hasegawa, Raiden; Small, Dylan
2017-12-01
In matched observational studies where treatment assignment is not randomized, sensitivity analysis helps investigators determine how sensitive their estimated treatment effect is to some unmeasured confounder. The standard approach calibrates the sensitivity analysis according to the worst case bias in a pair. This approach will result in a conservative sensitivity analysis if the worst case bias does not hold in every pair. In this paper, we show that for binary data, the standard approach can be calibrated in terms of the average bias in a pair rather than worst case bias. When the worst case bias and average bias differ, the average bias interpretation results in a less conservative sensitivity analysis and more power. In many studies, the average case calibration may also carry a more natural interpretation than the worst case calibration and may also allow researchers to incorporate additional data to establish an empirical basis with which to calibrate a sensitivity analysis. We illustrate this with a study of the effects of cellphone use on the incidence of automobile accidents. Finally, we extend the average case calibration to the sensitivity analysis of confidence intervals for attributable effects. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abba M. Wakili
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.
Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard
2011-01-01
opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...
Analysis Of Economic Motivation When Individuals Choose An Educational Path
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Viktor Anatolyevich Koksharov
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The authors consider the economic motivations when individuals choose an educational path. This line of research is relevant from both, the point of view of science — research of economic behavior of an individual, and the point of view of practice — allows to increase efficiency of investments in a human capital. The authors have developed the economic and mathematical model of choice of optimum educational paths by individuals. The model is realized in the software and approved on real data on more than 5,5 thousand students. For the analysis of the importance of rational economic expectations when an educational path has to be chosen, the paths chosen by students is compared and the educational paths optimum from the point of view of economic rationality are calculated. The analysis of the results has showed that mainly, the choice of educational paths happens according to the economic motivations. On the considered selection, 66 % of prospective students have chosen an optimum path from the point of view of economic preferences. The most significant factor providing development of optimum educational paths is an expectation of higher income upon completion of education — 22 % of all educational paths, and a possibility of cost-cutting of educating or state-subsidized education — 12 %. In our opinion, one of the most important practical results of the research of optimum educational path is the need to consider expectations of students and prospective student when developing a state policy of investment in human capital.
Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Faggini, Marisa
2014-01-01
The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area
Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Reddy, B.S.; Srinivasan, P.V.; Parikh, K.S.; Parikh, J.K.
1997-01-01
An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)
Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)
2014-12-15
The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.
Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does......This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...
Green technologies for the use of urban wastewater: economic analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Horacio Alfredo Gil
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Urban sewage is one of the biggest polluters of water resources. For treatment, the usual conventional technologies (CT are based on civil and hydraulic engineering; more recently, green technologies (GT based on biology and ecology began to be developed. The aim of this study was to assess the economic aspects of these technologies using cost-benefit analysis. The economic benefits are derived from the sale of forest products and the environmental benefits of water decontamination, valued by the avoided cost method. The results of the study establish that GT have better commercial and economic performance than CT, and that the inclusion of environmental benefit significantly improves the results.
Application of Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis to Integrated Force Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. F. Wei
2012-01-01
Full Text Available As a new formulation in structural analysis, Integrated Force Method has been successfully applied to many structures for civil, mechanical, and aerospace engineering due to the accurate estimate of forces in computation. Right now, it is being further extended to the probabilistic domain. For the assessment of uncertainty effect in system optimization and identification, the probabilistic sensitivity analysis of IFM was further investigated in this study. A set of stochastic sensitivity analysis formulation of Integrated Force Method was developed using the perturbation method. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate its application. Its efficiency and accuracy were also substantiated with direct Monte Carlo simulations and the reliability-based sensitivity method. The numerical algorithm was shown to be readily adaptable to the existing program since the models of stochastic finite element and stochastic design sensitivity are almost identical.
The EVEREST project: sensitivity analysis of geological disposal systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marivoet, Jan; Wemaere, Isabelle; Escalier des Orres, Pierre; Baudoin, Patrick; Certes, Catherine; Levassor, Andre; Prij, Jan; Martens, Karl-Heinz; Roehlig, Klaus
1997-01-01
The main objective of the EVEREST project is the evaluation of the sensitivity of the radiological consequences associated with the geological disposal of radioactive waste to the different elements in the performance assessment. Three types of geological host formations are considered: clay, granite and salt. The sensitivity studies that have been carried out can be partitioned into three categories according to the type of uncertainty taken into account: uncertainty in the model parameters, uncertainty in the conceptual models and uncertainty in the considered scenarios. Deterministic as well as stochastic calculational approaches have been applied for the sensitivity analyses. For the analysis of the sensitivity to parameter values, the reference technique, which has been applied in many evaluations, is stochastic and consists of a Monte Carlo simulation followed by a linear regression. For the analysis of conceptual model uncertainty, deterministic and stochastic approaches have been used. For the analysis of uncertainty in the considered scenarios, mainly deterministic approaches have been applied
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Description of techniques
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.
2008-01-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. Then, in the second and concluding part of this presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present
Multiple predictor smoothing methods for sensitivity analysis: Example results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Storlie, Curtis B.; Helton, Jon C.
2008-01-01
The use of multiple predictor smoothing methods in sampling-based sensitivity analyses of complex models is investigated. Specifically, sensitivity analysis procedures based on smoothing methods employing the stepwise application of the following nonparametric regression techniques are described in the first part of this presentation: (i) locally weighted regression (LOESS), (ii) additive models, (iii) projection pursuit regression, and (iv) recursive partitioning regression. In this, the second and concluding part of the presentation, the indicated procedures are illustrated with both simple test problems and results from a performance assessment for a radioactive waste disposal facility (i.e., the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant). As shown by the example illustrations, the use of smoothing procedures based on nonparametric regression techniques can yield more informative sensitivity analysis results than can be obtained with more traditional sensitivity analysis procedures based on linear regression, rank regression or quadratic regression when nonlinear relationships between model inputs and model predictions are present
Carbon dioxide capture processes: Simulation, design and sensitivity analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay Hyung; Gani, Rafiqul
2012-01-01
equilibrium and associated property models are used. Simulations are performed to investigate the sensitivity of the process variables to change in the design variables including process inputs and disturbances in the property model parameters. Results of the sensitivity analysis on the steady state...... performance of the process to the L/G ratio to the absorber, CO2 lean solvent loadings, and striper pressure are presented in this paper. Based on the sensitivity analysis process optimization problems have been defined and solved and, a preliminary control structure selection has been made.......Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas and its major source is combustion of fossil fuels for power generation. The objective of this study is to carry out the steady-state sensitivity analysis for chemical absorption of carbon dioxide capture from flue gas using monoethanolamine solvent. First...
Analysis and Application of Quality Economics Based on Input-Output
Lu, Qiang; Li, Xin
2018-01-01
Quality economics analysis is an important research area in the current economic frontier, which has a huge role in promoting the quality-benefit type road development in China. Through the study of quality economics analysis and application, economics of quality and quality economics management are summarized, and theoretical framework of quality economics analysis is constructed. Finally, the quality economics analysis of aerospace equipment is taken as an example to carry on the application research.
Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.
Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M
2016-12-28
Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.
Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Drainage Modeling Using Mutual Information
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chuanqi Li
2014-11-01
Full Text Available The intention of this paper is to evaluate the sensitivity of the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM output to its input parameters. A global parameter sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to determine which parameters mostly affect the model simulation results. Two different methods of sensitivity analysis are applied in this study. The first one is the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC which measures nonlinear but monotonic relationships between model inputs and outputs. The second one is based on the mutual information which provides a general measure of the strength of the non-monotonic association between two variables. Both methods are based on the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS of the parameter space, and thus the same datasets can be used to obtain both measures of sensitivity. The utility of the PRCC and the mutual information analysis methods are illustrated by analyzing a complex SWMM model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that only a few key input variables are contributing significantly to the model outputs; PRCCs and mutual information are calculated and used to determine and rank the importance of these key parameters. This study shows that the partial rank correlation coefficient and mutual information analysis can be considered effective methods for assessing the sensitivity of the SWMM model to the uncertainty in its input parameters.
Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks
Navarro, María
2016-12-26
Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.
Economic analysis of nuclear power generation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam
1996-12-01
The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.
Economic analysis of fusion breeders. Supplement
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Delene, J.G.
1985-01-01
Three fusion/fission hybrids and three converter reactors were considered in combination: (1) Li-Be (Opt-Li) blanket, (2) molten salt blanket (1.6 blanket energy multiplier), and (3) molten salt blanket (2.5 blanket energy multiplier). The following converter (fission) reactors were considered: (1) LWR, (2) HTGR, and (3) molten salt. In order to provide some perspective on the results of the hybrid analysis, LMFBRs were also examined: (1) methods applied consistently, and (2) range of LMFBR costs consistent with current thought on advanced designs
Financial liberalization and economic growth : A meta-analysis
Bumann, Silke; Hermes, Niels; Lensink, Robert
This study provides a systematic analysis of the empirical literature on the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth by conducting a meta-analysis, based on 441 t-statistics reported in 60 empirical studies. We focus on explaining the heterogeneity of results in our sample
Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liu, Zhen
2013-01-01
and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto...
Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Foutes, C.E.; Queenan, C.J. III
1987-01-01
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables
Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.
2017-12-01
The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push
Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.
Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo
2013-10-01
Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.
Sensitivity analysis for reactivity and power density investigations in nuclear reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Naguib, K.; Morcos, H.N.; Sallam, O.H.; Abdelsamei, SH.
1993-01-01
Sensitivity analysis theory based on the variational functional approaches was applied to evaluate sensitivities of eigenvalues and power densities due to variation of the absorber concentration in the reactor core. The practical usefulness of this method is illustrated by considering test cases. The result indicates that this method is as accurate as those obtained from direct calculations, yet it provides an economical means in saving computational time since it requires fewer calculations. The SARC-1/2 code have been written in Fortran-77 to solve this problem.3 tab. 1 fig
Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O.O. Poplavskiy
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.
Allergen Sensitization Pattern by Sex: A Cluster Analysis in Korea.
Ohn, Jungyoon; Paik, Seung Hwan; Doh, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun-Sun; Yoon, Hyun-Sun; Cho, Soyun
2017-12-01
Allergens tend to sensitize simultaneously. Etiology of this phenomenon has been suggested to be allergen cross-reactivity or concurrent exposure. However, little is known about specific allergen sensitization patterns. To investigate the allergen sensitization characteristics according to gender. Multiple allergen simultaneous test (MAST) is widely used as a screening tool for detecting allergen sensitization in dermatologic clinics. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with MAST results between 2008 and 2014 in our Department of Dermatology. A cluster analysis was performed to elucidate the allergen-specific immunoglobulin (Ig)E cluster pattern. The results of MAST (39 allergen-specific IgEs) from 4,360 cases were analyzed. By cluster analysis, 39items were grouped into 8 clusters. Each cluster had characteristic features. When compared with female, the male group tended to be sensitized more frequently to all tested allergens, except for fungus allergens cluster. The cluster and comparative analysis results demonstrate that the allergen sensitization is clustered, manifesting allergen similarity or co-exposure. Only the fungus cluster allergens tend to sensitize female group more frequently than male group.
A general first-order global sensitivity analysis method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Chonggang; Gertner, George Zdzislaw
2008-01-01
Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST) is one of the most popular global sensitivity analysis techniques. The main mechanism of FAST is to assign each parameter with a characteristic frequency through a search function. Then, for a specific parameter, the variance contribution can be singled out of the model output by the characteristic frequency. Although FAST has been widely applied, there are two limitations: (1) the aliasing effect among parameters by using integer characteristic frequencies and (2) the suitability for only models with independent parameters. In this paper, we synthesize the improvement to overcome the aliasing effect limitation [Tarantola S, Gatelli D, Mara TA. Random balance designs for the estimation of first order global sensitivity indices. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2006; 91(6):717-27] and the improvement to overcome the independence limitation [Xu C, Gertner G. Extending a global sensitivity analysis technique to models with correlated parameters. Comput Stat Data Anal 2007, accepted for publication]. In this way, FAST can be a general first-order global sensitivity analysis method for linear/nonlinear models with as many correlated/uncorrelated parameters as the user specifies. We apply the general FAST to four test cases with correlated parameters. The results show that the sensitivity indices derived by the general FAST are in good agreement with the sensitivity indices derived by the correlation ratio method, which is a non-parametric method for models with correlated parameters
The Economic Risks Arising from the Analysis of the Balance Sheet of an Economic Entity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andreea Mihaela Marin
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Any economic entity operates under probability and risk. In a general acceptation, risk means the validity of the result obtained under pressure of the economic environment; in other words, the risk is the potential damage posed to heritage, interests and affect the entity. In this paper we want to capture, the calculation in terms of the balance sheet analysis of the three risks, which can be measured on the basis of the balance sheet data and indicators, namely: the operational risk, financial risk, and the risk of bankruptcy.
The economic value of an investment in physiotherapy education: a net present value analysis
George Rivers; Jonathan Foo; Dragan Ilic; Peter Nicklen; Scott Reeves; Kieran Walsh; Stephen Maloney
2015-01-01
Questions: What is the economic value for an individual to invest in physiotherapy undergraduate education in Australia? How is this affected by increased education costs or decreased wages? Design: A cost-benefit analysis using a net present value (NPV) approach was conducted and reported in Australian dollars. In relation to physiotherapy education, the NPV represents future earnings as a physiotherapist minus the direct and indirect costs in obtaining the degree. Sensitivity analyses were ...
Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae
2016-01-01
Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed
Sensitivity Analysis of Criticality for Different Nuclear Fuel Shapes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kang, Hyun Sik; Jang, Misuk; Kim, Seoung Rae [NESS, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-10-15
Rod-type nuclear fuel was mainly developed in the past, but recent study has been extended to plate-type nuclear fuel. Therefore, this paper reviews the sensitivity of criticality according to different shapes of nuclear fuel types. Criticality analysis was performed using MCNP5. MCNP5 is well-known Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis and a general-purpose Monte Carlo N-Particle code that can be used for neutron, photon, electron or coupled neutron / photon / electron transport, including the capability to calculate eigenvalues for critical systems. We performed the sensitivity analysis of criticality for different fuel shapes. In sensitivity analysis for simple fuel shapes, the criticality is proportional to the surface area. But for fuel Assembly types, it is not proportional to the surface area. In sensitivity analysis for intervals between plates, the criticality is greater as the interval increases, but if the interval is greater than 8mm, it showed an opposite trend that the criticality decrease by a larger interval. As a result, it has failed to obtain the logical content to be described in common for all cases. The sensitivity analysis of Criticality would be always required whenever subject to be analyzed is changed.
Global sensitivity analysis of computer models with functional inputs
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Iooss, Bertrand; Ribatet, Mathieu
2009-01-01
Global sensitivity analysis is used to quantify the influence of uncertain model inputs on the response variability of a numerical model. The common quantitative methods are appropriate with computer codes having scalar model inputs. This paper aims at illustrating different variance-based sensitivity analysis techniques, based on the so-called Sobol's indices, when some model inputs are functional, such as stochastic processes or random spatial fields. In this work, we focus on large cpu time computer codes which need a preliminary metamodeling step before performing the sensitivity analysis. We propose the use of the joint modeling approach, i.e., modeling simultaneously the mean and the dispersion of the code outputs using two interlinked generalized linear models (GLMs) or generalized additive models (GAMs). The 'mean model' allows to estimate the sensitivity indices of each scalar model inputs, while the 'dispersion model' allows to derive the total sensitivity index of the functional model inputs. The proposed approach is compared to some classical sensitivity analysis methodologies on an analytical function. Lastly, the new methodology is applied to an industrial computer code that simulates the nuclear fuel irradiation.
Economic feasibility analysis of a wind farm in Caldas da Rainha, Portugal
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
de Oliveira, Wagner Sousa; Fernandes, Antonio Jorge [Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro & Campus Universitario de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal)
2012-07-01
This paper presents the technical and economical feasibility of a wind farm. The method is applied to a potential wind farm site located in Caldas da Rainha, Portugal. The site is considered on technical and economical parameters for the complete plant and its running costs. For technical consideration wind speed, prevailing wind direction, and temperature measurements are performed by using RETScreen Climate Database and Retscreen Product Database. The economic and financial evaluation of the wind farm is made by the software RETScreen(reg. sign) International Clean Energy Project Analysis and the indicators calculated are WACC, NPV, IRR, SPB, DPB, TLCC, BCR, LCOE, RR and UPAC. The sensitivity analysis backs up the findings through the scenarios developed (Current, S1, S2 and S3).
A tool model for predicting atmospheric kinetics with sensitivity analysis
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
无
2001-01-01
A package( a tool model) for program of predicting atmospheric chemical kinetics with sensitivity analysis is presented. The new direct method of calculating the first order sensitivity coefficients using sparse matrix technology to chemical kinetics is included in the tool model, it is only necessary to triangularize the matrix related to the Jacobian matrix of the model equation. The Gear type procedure is used to integrate amodel equation and its coupled auxiliary sensitivity coefficient equations. The FORTRAN subroutines of the model equation, the sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian analytical expressions are generated automatically from a chemical mechanism. The kinetic representation for the model equation and its sensitivity coefficient equations, and their Jacobian matrix is presented. Various FORTRAN subroutines in packages, such as SLODE, modified MA28, Gear package, with which the program runs in conjunction are recommended.The photo-oxidation of dimethyl disulfide is used for illustration.
Sensitivity analysis of the nuclear data for MYRRHA reactor modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert; Cabellos, Oscar; Diez, Carlos J.; Schillebeeckx, Peter; Heyse, Jan
2014-01-01
A global sensitivity analysis of effective neutron multiplication factor k eff to the change of nuclear data library revealed that JEFF-3.2T2 neutron-induced evaluated data library produces closer results to ENDF/B-VII.1 than does JEFF-3.1.2. The analysis of contributions of individual evaluations into k eff sensitivity allowed establishing the priority list of nuclides for which uncertainties on nuclear data must be improved. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed for two nuclides from this list, 56 Fe and 238 Pu. The analysis was based on a detailed survey of the evaluations and experimental data. To track the origin of the differences in the evaluations and their impact on k eff , the reaction cross-sections and multiplicities in one evaluation have been substituted by the corresponding data from other evaluations. (authors)
Siamphukdee, Kanjana; Collins, Frank; Zou, Roger
2013-06-01
Chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion is one of the major causes of premature deterioration in reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Given the high maintenance and replacement costs, accurate modeling of RC deterioration is indispensable for ensuring the optimal allocation of limited economic resources. Since corrosion rate is one of the major factors influencing the rate of deterioration, many predictive models exist. However, because the existing models use very different sets of input parameters, the choice of model for RC deterioration is made difficult. Although the factors affecting corrosion rate are frequently reported in the literature, there is no published quantitative study on the sensitivity of predicted corrosion rate to the various input parameters. This paper presents the results of the sensitivity analysis of the input parameters for nine selected corrosion rate prediction models. Three different methods of analysis are used to determine and compare the sensitivity of corrosion rate to various input parameters: (i) univariate regression analysis, (ii) multivariate regression analysis, and (iii) sensitivity index. The results from the analysis have quantitatively verified that the corrosion rate of steel reinforcement bars in RC structures is highly sensitive to corrosion duration time, concrete resistivity, and concrete chloride content. These important findings establish that future empirical models for predicting corrosion rate of RC should carefully consider and incorporate these input parameters.
Integration of hydrothermal carbonization and a CHP plant: Part 2 –operational and economic analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saari, Jussi; Sermyagina, Ekaterina; Kaikko, Juha; Vakkilainen, Esa; Sergeev, Vitaly
2016-01-01
Wood-fired combined heat and power (CHP) plants are a proven technology for producing domestic, carbon-neutral heat and power in Nordic countries. One drawback of CHP plants is the low capacity factors due to varying heat loads. In the current economic environment, uncertainty over energy prices creates also uncertainty over investment profitability. Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is a promising thermochemical conversion technology for producing an improved, more versatile wood-based fuel. Integrating HTC with a CHP plant allows simplifying the HTC process and extending the CHP plant operating time. An integrated polygeneration plant producing three energy products is also less sensitive to price changes in any one product. This study compares three integration cases chosen from the previous paper, and the case of separate stand-alone plants. The best economic performance is obtained using pressurized hot water from the CHP plant boiler drum as HTC process water. This has the poorest efficiency, but allows the greatest cost reduction in the HTC process and longest CHP plant operating time. The result demonstrates the suitability of CHP plants for integration with a HTC process, and the importance of economic and operational analysis considering annual load variations in sufficient detail. - Highlights: • Integration of wood hydrothermal carbonization with a small CHP plant studied. • Operation and economics of three concepts and stand-alone plants are compared. • Sensitivity analysis is performed. • Results show technical and thermodynamic analysis inadequate and misleading alone. • Minimizing HTC investment, extending CHP operating time important for profitability.
Sequential designs for sensitivity analysis of functional inputs in computer experiments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fruth, J.; Roustant, O.; Kuhnt, S.
2015-01-01
Computer experiments are nowadays commonly used to analyze industrial processes aiming at achieving a wanted outcome. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on the response variable. In this work we focus on sensitivity analysis of a scalar-valued output of a time-consuming computer code depending on scalar and functional input parameters. We investigate a sequential methodology, based on piecewise constant functions and sequential bifurcation, which is both economical and fully interpretable. The new approach is applied to a sheet metal forming problem in three sequential steps, resulting in new insights into the behavior of the forming process over time. - Highlights: • Sensitivity analysis method for functional and scalar inputs is presented. • We focus on the discovery of most influential parts of the functional domain. • We investigate economical sequential methodology based on piecewise constant functions. • Normalized sensitivity indices are introduced and investigated theoretically. • Successful application to sheet metal forming on two functional inputs
The Economic Impact of Tourism. An Input-Output Analysis
Camelia SURUGIU
2009-01-01
The paper presents an Input-Output Analysis for Romania, an important source of information for the investigation of the inter-relations existing among different industries. The Input-Output Analysis is used to determine the role and importance of different economic value added, incomes and employment and it analyses the existing connection in an economy. This paper is focused on tourism and the input-output analysis is finished for the Hotels and Restaurants Sector.
Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn
2001-01-01
Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money
Deterministic Local Sensitivity Analysis of Augmented Systems - I: Theory
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cacuci, Dan G.; Ionescu-Bujor, Mihaela
2005-01-01
This work provides the theoretical foundation for the modular implementation of the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure (ASAP) for large-scale simulation systems. The implementation of the ASAP commences with a selected code module and then proceeds by augmenting the size of the adjoint sensitivity system, module by module, until the entire system is completed. Notably, the adjoint sensitivity system for the augmented system can often be solved by using the same numerical methods used for solving the original, nonaugmented adjoint system, particularly when the matrix representation of the adjoint operator for the augmented system can be inverted by partitioning
The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kucherenko, Sergei; Feil, Balazs; Shah, Nilay; Mauntz, Wolfgang
2011-01-01
It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.
The identification of model effective dimensions using global sensitivity analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kucherenko, Sergei, E-mail: s.kucherenko@ic.ac.u [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Feil, Balazs [Department of Process Engineering, University of Pannonia, Veszprem (Hungary); Shah, Nilay [CPSE, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Mauntz, Wolfgang [Lehrstuhl fuer Anlagensteuerungstechnik, Fachbereich Chemietechnik, Universitaet Dortmund (Germany)
2011-04-15
It is shown that the effective dimensions can be estimated at reasonable computational costs using variance based global sensitivity analysis. Namely, the effective dimension in the truncation sense can be found by using the Sobol' sensitivity indices for subsets of variables. The effective dimension in the superposition sense can be estimated by using the first order effects and the total Sobol' sensitivity indices. The classification of some important classes of integrable functions based on their effective dimension is proposed. It is shown that it can be used for the prediction of the QMC efficiency. Results of numerical tests verify the prediction of the developed techniques.
Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Rasmussen, Henrik
2009-01-01
satisfies the design objectives and criteria. In the design of sustainable buildings, it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to more efficiently develop alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. Sensitivity analyses make it possible to identify...... possible to influence the most important design parameters. A methodology of sensitivity analysis is presented and an application example is given for design of an office building in Denmark....
Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs
Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Young, M.
2016-01-01
Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral
Sensitivity analysis of network DEA illustrated in branch banking
N. Avkiran
2010-01-01
Users of data envelopment analysis (DEA) often presume efficiency estimates to be robust. While traditional DEA has been exposed to various sensitivity studies, network DEA (NDEA) has so far escaped similar scrutiny. Thus, there is a need to investigate the sensitivity of NDEA, further compounded by the recent attention it has been receiving in literature. NDEA captures the underlying performance information found in a firm?s interacting divisions or sub-processes that would otherwise remain ...
Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony
2011-01-01
Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors
Sensitivity analysis of periodic errors in heterodyne interferometry
Ganguly, Vasishta; Kim, Nam Ho; Kim, Hyo Soo; Schmitz, Tony
2011-03-01
Periodic errors in heterodyne displacement measuring interferometry occur due to frequency mixing in the interferometer. These nonlinearities are typically characterized as first- and second-order periodic errors which cause a cyclical (non-cumulative) variation in the reported displacement about the true value. This study implements an existing analytical periodic error model in order to identify sensitivities of the first- and second-order periodic errors to the input parameters, including rotational misalignments of the polarizing beam splitter and mixing polarizer, non-orthogonality of the two laser frequencies, ellipticity in the polarizations of the two laser beams, and different transmission coefficients in the polarizing beam splitter. A local sensitivity analysis is first conducted to examine the sensitivities of the periodic errors with respect to each input parameter about the nominal input values. Next, a variance-based approach is used to study the global sensitivities of the periodic errors by calculating the Sobol' sensitivity indices using Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of variation in the input uncertainty on the computed sensitivity indices is examined. It is seen that the first-order periodic error is highly sensitive to non-orthogonality of the two linearly polarized laser frequencies, while the second-order error is most sensitive to the rotational misalignment between the laser beams and the polarizing beam splitter. A particle swarm optimization technique is finally used to predict the possible setup imperfections based on experimentally generated values for periodic errors.
An economic analysis of adult hepatitis B vaccination in China.
Zheng, Hui; Wang, Fu-zhen; Zhang, Guo-min; Cui, Fu-qiang; Wu, Zhen-hua; Miao, Ning; Sun, Xiao-jin; Liang, Xiao-feng; Li, Li
2015-11-27
With the universal infant hepatitis B vaccination (HepB) program, China has made remarkable achievements to prevent and control hepatitis B. In order to further reduce hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the Chinese government is considering implementing a widespread adult HBV vaccination campaign. We performed an economic analysis of two different adult HepB vaccination strategies for 21-59-years-olds: vaccination without screening and screening-based vaccination. Cost-benefit analyses were conducted. All 21-59-year-olds were divided into two groups: young adults (ages 21-39) and middle-aged adults (ages 40-59). Costs and benefits were estimated using the direct cost and societal (direct and indirect costs) perspectives. All costs and benefits were adjusted to 2014 US dollars, where future values were discounted at a 3% annual rate. We calculated benefit-cost ratios (BCRs) of the two vaccination strategies for the two different age groups. Sensitivity analyses varied key parameters within plausible ranges. Among young adults, the direct and societal BCRs for a vaccination campaign with no screening would be 1.06 and 1.42; with a screening-based vaccination campaign, the model estimated the direct and societal BCRs would be 1.19 and 1.73. Among middle-aged adults, the direct and societal BCRs for a vaccination campaign without screening would be 0.59 and 0.59; with a screening-based vaccination campaign, the model estimated the direct and societal BCRs would be 0.68 and 0.73. The results of our study support a HepB vaccination campaign for young adults. Additionally, a vaccination campaign with screening appeared to provide greater value than a vaccination without screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
2012-01-01
OVERVIEW OF PRESENTATION : Evaluation Parameters : EPAs Sensitivity Analysis : Comparison to Baseline Case : MOVES Sensitivity Run Specification : MOVES Sensitivity Input Parameters : Results : Uses of Study
Sensitivity analysis of the reactor safety study. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parkinson, W.J.; Rasmussen, N.C.; Hinkle, W.D.
1979-01-01
The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) or Wash 1400 developed a methodology estimating the public risk from light water nuclear reactors. In order to give further insights into this study, a sensitivity analysis has been performed to determine the significant contributors to risk for both the PWR and BWR. The sensitivity to variation of the point values of the failure probabilities reported in the RSS was determined for the safety systems identified therein, as well as for many of the generic classes from which individual failures contributed to system failures. Increasing as well as decreasing point values were considered. An analysis of the sensitivity to increasing uncertainty in system failure probabilities was also performed. The sensitivity parameters chosen were release category probabilities, core melt probability, and the risk parameters of early fatalities, latent cancers and total property damage. The latter three are adequate for describing all public risks identified in the RSS. The results indicate reductions of public risk by less than a factor of two for factor reductions in system or generic failure probabilities as high as one hundred. There also appears to be more benefit in monitoring the most sensitive systems to verify adherence to RSS failure rates than to backfitting present reactors. The sensitivity analysis results do indicate, however, possible benefits in reducing human error rates
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muhsen, Dhiaa Halboot; Khatib, Tamer; Haider, Haider Tarish
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Feasibility and load sensitivity analysis is conducted for PVPS. • Battery and diesel generator are considered as supporting units to the system. • The configuration of the PV array and the initial status of the tank are important. • The COU is more sensitive to the capital cost of PV array than other components. • Increasing the maximum capacity of water storage tank is better storage and DG. - Abstract: In this paper, a feasibility and load sensitivity analysis is conducted for photovoltaic water pumping systems with storage device (battery) or diesel generator so as to obtain an optimal configuration that achieves a reliable system. The analysis is conducted based on techno-economic aspects, where the loss of load probability and life cycle cost are represented as technical and economic criteria, respectively. Various photovoltaic water pumping systems scenarios with initially full storage tank; battery and hybrid DG-PV energy source are proposed to analyze the feasibility of system. The result shows that the configuration of the PV array and the initial status of the storage tank are important variables to be considered. Moreover, the sensitivity of cost of unit for various PVPS components is studied. It is found that the cost of unit is more sensitive to the initial capital cost of photovoltaic array than other components. In this paper a standalone PV based pumping system with a PV array capacity of 2.4 kWp and a storage tank with a capacity of 80 m 3 was proposed an a optimum system. The system with the aforementioned configuration pumps an average hourly water volume of approximately 3.297 m 3 over one year with a unit of 0.05158 USD/m 3 . Moreover, according to results, increasing the maximum capacity of water storage tank is technically and economically better than supporting a photovoltaic water pumping systems with another energy source or extra storage device.
Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) Study: An Economic Analysis.
Paulden, Mike; Bergstrom, Nancy; Horn, Susan D; Rapp, Mary; Stern, Anita; Barrett, Ryan; Watkiss, Michael; Krahn, Murray
2014-01-01
The Turning for Ulcer Reduction (TURN) study was a multisite, randomized controlled trial that aimed to determine the optimal frequency of turning nursing facility residents with mobility limitations who are at moderate and high risk for pressure ulcer (PrU) development. Here we present data from the economic analysis. This economic analysis aims to estimate the economic consequences for Ontario of switching from a repositioning schedule of 2-hour intervals to a schedule of 3-hour or 4-hour intervals. Costs considered in the analysis included those associated with nursing staff time spent repositioning residents and with incontinent care supplies, which included briefs, barrier cream, and washcloths. The total economic benefit of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning is estimated to be $11.05 or $16.74 per day, respectively, for every resident at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs. For a typical facility with 123 residents, 41 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefit is estimated to be $453 daily for 3-hour or $686 daily for 4-hour repositioning. For Ontario as a whole, assuming that there are 77,933 residents at 634 LTC facilities, 25,927 (33%) of whom are at moderate or high risk of developing PrUs, the total economic benefits of switching to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning are estimated to be $286,420 or $433,913 daily, respectively, equivalent to $104.5 million or $158.4 million per year. We did not consider the savings the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care might incur should less frequent repositioning reduce the incidence of work-related injury among nursing staff, so our findings are potentially conservative. A switch to 3-hour or 4-hour repositioning appears likely to yield substantial economic benefits to Ontario without placing residents at greater risk of developing PrUs.
Economic effectiveness of disease management programs: a meta-analysis.
Krause, David S
2005-04-01
The economic effectiveness of disease management programs, which are designed to improve the clinical and economic outcomes for chronically ill individuals, has been evaluated extensively. A literature search was performed with MEDLINE and other published sources for the period covering January 1995 to September 2003. The search was limited to empirical articles that measured the direct economic outcomes for asthma, diabetes, and heart disease management programs. Of the 360 articles and presentations evaluated, only 67 met the selection criteria for meta-analysis, which included 32,041 subjects. Although some studies contained multiple measurements of direct economic outcomes, only one average effect size per study was included in the meta-analysis. Based on the studies included in the research, a meta-analysis provided a statistically significant answer to the question of whether disease management programs are economically effective. The magnitude of the observed average effect size for equally weighted studies was 0.311 (95% CI = 0.272-0.350). Statistically significant differences of effect sizes by study design, disease type and intensity of disease management program interventions were not found after a moderating variable, disease severity, was taken into consideration. The results suggest that disease management programs are more effective economically with severely ill enrollees and that chronic disease program interventions are most effective when coordinated with the overall level of disease severity. The findings can be generalized, which may assist health care policy makers and practitioners in addressing the issue of providing economically effective care for the growing number of individuals with chronic illness.
Sensitivity analysis technique for application to deterministic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ishigami, T.; Cazzoli, E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Unwin, S.D.
1987-01-01
The characterization of sever accident source terms for light water reactors should include consideration of uncertainties. An important element of any uncertainty analysis is an evaluation of the sensitivity of the output probability distributions reflecting source term uncertainties to assumptions regarding the input probability distributions. Historically, response surface methods (RSMs) were developed to replace physical models using, for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for example, regression techniques, with simplified models for extensive calculations. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method for sensitivity analysis that does not utilize RSM, but instead relies directly on the results obtained from the original computer code calculations. The merits of this approach are demonstrated by application of the proposed method to the suppression pool aerosol removal code (SPARC), and the results are compared with those obtained by sensitivity analysis with (a) the code itself, (b) a regression model, and (c) Iman's method
Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Harry R. Millwater
2006-01-01
Full Text Available A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or surface damage can be considered. The derivation is developed for Monte Carlo sampling such that the existing failure samples are used and the sensitivities are obtained with minimal additional computational time. Variance estimates and confidence bounds of the sensitivity estimates are developed. The methodology is demonstrated and verified using a multizone probabilistic fatigue analysis of a gas turbine compressor disk analysis considering stress scatter, crack growth propagation scatter, and initial crack size as random variables.
Application of sensitivity analysis for optimized piping support design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tai, K.; Nakatogawa, T.; Hisada, T.; Noguchi, H.; Ichihashi, I.; Ogo, H.
1993-01-01
The objective of this study was to see if recent developments in non-linear sensitivity analysis could be applied to the design of nuclear piping systems which use non-linear supports and to develop a practical method of designing such piping systems. In the study presented in this paper, the seismic response of a typical piping system was analyzed using a dynamic non-linear FEM and a sensitivity analysis was carried out. Then optimization for the design of the piping system supports was investigated, selecting the support location and yield load of the non-linear supports (bi-linear model) as main design parameters. It was concluded that the optimized design was a matter of combining overall system reliability with the achievement of an efficient damping effect from the non-linear supports. The analysis also demonstrated sensitivity factors are useful in the planning stage of support design. (author)
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the PATHWAY radionuclide transport model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Otis, M.D.
1983-01-01
Procedures were developed for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a dynamic model of radionuclide transport through human food chains. Uncertainty in model predictions was estimated by propagation of parameter uncertainties using a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Sensitivity of model predictions to individual parameters was investigated using the partial correlation coefficient of each parameter with model output. Random values produced for the uncertainty analysis were used in the correlation analysis for sensitivity. These procedures were applied to the PATHWAY model which predicts concentrations of radionuclides in foods grown in Nevada and Utah and exposed to fallout during the period of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing in Nevada. Concentrations and time-integrated concentrations of iodine-131, cesium-136, and cesium-137 in milk and other foods were investigated. 9 figs., 13 tabs
Conversion of paper sludge to ethanol, II: process design and economic analysis.
Fan, Zhiliang; Lynd, Lee R
2007-01-01
Process design and economics are considered for conversion of paper sludge to ethanol. A particular site, a bleached kraft mill operated in Gorham, NH by Fraser Papers (15 tons dry sludge processed per day), is considered. In addition, profitability is examined for a larger plant (50 dry tons per day) and sensitivity analysis is carried out with respect to capacity, tipping fee, and ethanol price. Conversion based on simultaneous saccharification and fermentation with intermittent feeding is examined, with ethanol recovery provided by distillation and molecular sieve adsorption. It was found that the Fraser plant achieves positive cash flow with or without xylose conversion and mineral recovery. Sensitivity analysis indicates economics are very sensitive to ethanol selling price and scale; significant but less sensitive to the tipping fee, and rather insensitive to the prices of cellulase and power. Internal rates of return exceeding 15% are projected for larger plants at most combinations of scale, tipping fee, and ethanol price. Our analysis lends support to the proposition that paper sludge is a leading point-of-entry and proving ground for emergent industrial processes featuring enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulosic biomass.
Discrete non-parametric kernel estimation for global sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Senga Kiessé, Tristan; Ventura, Anne
2016-01-01
This work investigates the discrete kernel approach for evaluating the contribution of the variance of discrete input variables to the variance of model output, via analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition. Until recently only the continuous kernel approach has been applied as a metamodeling approach within sensitivity analysis framework, for both discrete and continuous input variables. Now the discrete kernel estimation is known to be suitable for smoothing discrete functions. We present a discrete non-parametric kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of a given model. An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its asymtotic convergence rate. Some simulations on a test function analysis and a real case study from agricultural have shown that the discrete kernel approach outperforms the continuous kernel one for evaluating the contribution of moderate or most influential discrete parameters to the model output. - Highlights: • We study a discrete kernel estimation for sensitivity analysis of a model. • A discrete kernel estimator of ANOVA decomposition of the model is presented. • Sensitivity indices are calculated for discrete input parameters. • An estimator of sensitivity indices is also presented with its convergence rate. • An application is realized for improving the reliability of environmental models.
Sensitivity analysis for missing data in regulatory submissions.
Permutt, Thomas
2016-07-30
The National Research Council Panel on Handling Missing Data in Clinical Trials recommended that sensitivity analyses have to be part of the primary reporting of findings from clinical trials. Their specific recommendations, however, seem not to have been taken up rapidly by sponsors of regulatory submissions. The NRC report's detailed suggestions are along rather different lines than what has been called sensitivity analysis in the regulatory setting up to now. Furthermore, the role of sensitivity analysis in regulatory decision-making, although discussed briefly in the NRC report, remains unclear. This paper will examine previous ideas of sensitivity analysis with a view to explaining how the NRC panel's recommendations are different and possibly better suited to coping with present problems of missing data in the regulatory setting. It will also discuss, in more detail than the NRC report, the relevance of sensitivity analysis to decision-making, both for applicants and for regulators. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
Sobol' sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee ...
We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather, colony resources, population structure, and other important variables. This allows us to test the effects of defined pesticide exposure scenarios versus controlled simulations that lack pesticide exposure. The daily resolution of the model also allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. We use the variancebased global decomposition sensitivity analysis method, Sobol’, to assess firstand secondorder parameter sensitivities within VarroaPop, allowing us to determine how variance in the output is attributed to each of the input variables across different exposure scenarios. Simulations with VarroaPop indicate queen strength, forager life span and pesticide toxicity parameters are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics. Further analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs. Our preliminary results show that model variability is conditional and can be attributed to different parameters depending on different timescales. By using sensitivity analysis to assess model output and variability, calibrations of simulation models can be better informed to yield more
Mathes, Tim; Jacobs, Esther; Morfeld, Jana-Carina; Pieper, Dawid
2013-09-30
The number of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies increases. One component of HTAs are economic aspects. To incorporate economic aspects commonly economic evaluations are performed. A convergence of recommendations for methods of health economic evaluations between international HTA agencies would facilitate the adaption of results to different settings and avoid unnecessary expense. A first step in this direction is a detailed analysis of existing similarities and differences in recommendations to identify potential for harmonization. The objective is to provide an overview and comparison of the methodological recommendations of international HTA agencies for economic evaluations. The webpages of 127 international HTA agencies were searched for guidelines containing recommendations on methods for the preparation of economic evaluations. Additionally, the HTA agencies were requested information on methods for economic evaluations. Recommendations of the included guidelines were extracted in standardized tables according to 13 methodological aspects. All process steps were performed independently by two reviewers. Finally 25 publications of 14 HTA agencies were included in the analysis. Methods for economic evaluations vary widely. The greatest accordance could be found for the type of analysis and comparator. Cost-utility-analyses or cost-effectiveness-analyses are recommended. The comparator should continuously be usual care. Again the greatest differences were shown in the recommendations on the measurement/sources of effects, discounting and in the analysis of sensitivity. The main difference regarding effects is the focus either on efficacy or effectiveness. Recommended discounting rates range from 1.5%-5% for effects and 3%-5% for costs whereby it is mostly recommended to use the same rate for costs and effects. With respect to the analysis of sensitivity the main difference is that oftentimes the probabilistic or deterministic approach is recommended
Marketing and Economic Analysis of Potatoes Irradiation in Egypt
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Khateeb, M.A.; El-Hayawan, H.
1999-01-01
The aim of this work is to examine the marketing, economic and financial feasibility of a project for potatoes irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of potatoes was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method, distribution channels and packing materials. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of a pallet conveyor unit for the irradiation of potatoes was also carried out . The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit - cost radio , payback period, average rate of return and net present value . The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of potatoes in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility
Marketing and economic analysis of mango irradiation processing in egypt
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elkhateeb, M.A.
2004-01-01
The aim of this work is to examine the marketing and economic feasibility of a project for mango irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market was analyzed considering the production size and cultivated area distributed over several years,the percentage of the total loss of mango that can be avoided by irradiation, the market tests in Egypt and other countries was presented and the normal distribution channels of mango when using radiation technology. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of pallet carrier unite for the irradiation of mango was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation: benefit-cost ratio, pay back period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of mango in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is be used as a multipurpose facility
Marketing and Economic Analysis of Garlic Irradiation in Egypt
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
El-Khateeb, M.A.
2000-01-01
The aim of this work is to examine the marketing , economic and financial feasibility of a project for garlic irradiation in Egypt. The Egyptian market of garlic was described and analyzed considering the production size distributed over several years, methods of preservation and storage, percentage of loss and cost for each method and distribution channels. The financial and economic analysis of the establishment of A tote Box unit for the irradiation of garlic was also carried out. The following investment criteria were utilized for the commercial evaluation : benefit-cost ratio, payback period, average rate of return and net present value. The results of this analysis showed that the installation of a unit for the irradiation of garlic in Egypt would be economically viable. The unit cost of irradiation would decline if the irradiator is used as a multipurpose facility
A Sensitivity Analysis of Timing and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gerlagh, R.; Van der Zwaan, B.
2004-01-01
This paper analyses the optimal timing and macro-economic costs of carbon emission reductions that mitigate the global average atmospheric temperature increase. We use a macro-economic model in which there are two competing energy sources, fossil-fuelled and non-fossil-fuelled. Technological change is represented endogenously through learning curves, and niche markets exist implying positive demand for the relatively expensive non-fossil-fuelled energy source. Under these conditions, with a temperature increase constraint of 2C, early abatement is found to be optimal, and, compared to the results of many existing top-down models, the costs of this strategy prove to be low. We perform an extensive sensitivity analysis of our results regarding the uncertainties that dominate various economic and technological modeling parameters. Uncertainties in the learning rate and the elasticity of substitution between the two different energy sources most significantly affect the robustness of our findings
Variance estimation for sensitivity analysis of poverty and inequality measures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christian Dudel
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Estimates of poverty and inequality are often based on application of a single equivalence scale, despite the fact that a large number of different equivalence scales can be found in the literature. This paper describes a framework for sensitivity analysis which can be used to account for the variability of equivalence scales and allows to derive variance estimates of results of sensitivity analysis. Simulations show that this method yields reliable estimates. An empirical application reveals that accounting for both variability of equivalence scales and sampling variance leads to confidence intervals which are wide.
Sensitivity analysis of water consumption in an office building
Suchacek, Tomas; Tuhovcak, Ladislav; Rucka, Jan
2018-02-01
This article deals with sensitivity analysis of real water consumption in an office building. During a long-term real study, reducing of pressure in its water connection was simulated. A sensitivity analysis of uneven water demand was conducted during working time at various provided pressures and at various time step duration. Correlations between maximal coefficients of water demand variation during working time and provided pressure were suggested. The influence of provided pressure in the water connection on mean coefficients of water demand variation was pointed out, altogether for working hours of all days and separately for days with identical working hours.
Probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of Botlek Bridge structures
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Králik Juraj
2017-01-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the largest movable lift bridge of the world. The bridge system consists of six reinforced concrete pylons and two steel decks 4000 tons weight each connected through ropes with counterweights. The paper focuses the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis as the base of dynamic study in design process of the bridge. The results had a high importance for practical application and design of the bridge. The model and resistance uncertainties were taken into account in LHS simulation method.
Applying DEA sensitivity analysis to efficiency measurement of Vietnamese universities
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thi Thanh Huyen Nguyen
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The primary purpose of this study is to measure the technical efficiency of 30 doctorate-granting universities, the universities or the higher education institutes with PhD training programs, in Vietnam, applying the sensitivity analysis of data envelopment analysis (DEA. The study uses eight sets of input-output specifications using the replacement as well as aggregation/disaggregation of variables. The measurement results allow us to examine the sensitivity of the efficiency of these universities with the sets of variables. The findings also show the impact of variables on their efficiency and its “sustainability”.
Economic Analysis of the Management of the Nuclear Spent Fuel in Spain
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
B. Yolanda Moratilla Soria
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the economic and technical viability for either nuclear fuel reprocessing or permanent storage in Spain. Utilizing various international studies regarding nuclear fuel reprocessing, this study reaches an objective conclusion while taking into consideration the various variable and stable costs for the open and closed cycles. A sensitivity analysis was then introduced which identifies the most influential parameters in the final price. This analysis is essential in understanding the results obtained and emphasizes the need to specify a range of costs for both cycles and to see what factors affect these results. The sensitivity analysis describes the factors that play a large role in determining costs and will display the range of values that arise from the variability of costs for those factors. The uncertainty analysis compares the nominal values used in this study and describes how these values are likely to change with time resulting in a range of values for both cycles.
How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Carlos Parodi Trece
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are defined. These are economic indicators, related, that depend on domestic policy and exogenous shocks, defined as events that are out of the hands of economic policy designers, but that influence the three variables, such as the international financial crisis. Following it, the formalization through macroeconomic identities is made, in order to finally explain "how is the economy" through them; and the relationship between the internal to the external economic environment. Bringing the economy to business should be a priority in an increasingly integrated context, characterized by the fact that the positive and the negative of what happens in the world economy is transmitted through various channels, to companies located in different countries. Hence, companies should broaden their vision, as the economic environment does not only include what happens within the country, but the future of the world economy.
Seismic analysis of steam generator and parameter sensitivity studies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qian Hao; Xu Dinggen; Yang Ren'an; Liang Xingyun
2013-01-01
Background: The steam generator (SG) serves as the primary means for removing the heat generated within the reactor core and is part of the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure boundary. Purpose: Seismic analysis in required for SG, whose seismic category is Cat. I. Methods: The analysis model of SG is created with moisture separator assembly and tube bundle assembly herein. The seismic analysis is performed with RCS pipe and Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV). Results: The seismic stress results of SG are obtained. In addition, parameter sensitivities of seismic analysis results are studied, such as the effect of another SG, support, anti-vibration bars (AVBs), and so on. Our results show that seismic results are sensitive to support and AVBs setting. Conclusions: The guidance and comments on these parameters are summarized for equipment design and analysis, which should be focused on in future new type NPP SG's research and design. (authors)
Environmental/Economic Analysis and Recycling of Wastes from Air ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Environmental and economic analysis was performed on the wastes from Air Liquid Nigeria Ltd. The company's waste water, spent oil, noise and air pollutants were examined. Results show no serious adverse impact on the ambient air quality. There was serious noise pollution problem around the factory hall and generator ...
Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.
Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.
The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…
Economic Analysis of Small Scale Egg Production in Gombe Local ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This study was conducted to determine the economic profitability of small-scale egg production in Gombe L.G.A. Gombe State. Data were collected from 36 famers using simple random sampling technique. The data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics, gross margin and farm financial ratio analysis. The study ...
Fire in longleaf pine stand management: an economic analysis
Rodney L. Busby; Donald G. Hodges
1999-01-01
A simulation analysis of the economics of using prescribed fire as a forest management tool in the management of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) plantations was conducted. A management regime using frequent prescribed fire was compared to management regimes involving fertilization and chemical release, chemical control, and mechanical control. Determining the...
An Economic Analysis Of Corruption In Nigeria | Ben | Journal of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The bane of the Nigerian economy has been mainly corruption in all sectors. This work is an in depth analysis on the meaning, kinds, causes and the economic implications to the country. It x-rayed how various leaders past and present have contributed to the underdevelopment of the country through corruption and proffers ...
Economic analysis of wildlife conservation in crop farming
Wenum, van J.H.
2002-01-01
The general objective of this thesis was to present an economic analysis of wildlife conservation in Dutch crop farming. This general objective was broken down into 5 specific research objectives around which the research was organised: (1) selection and definition of appropriate indicators for
Natural disasters and economic growth: A meta-analysis
Klomp, J.G.; Valckx, K.
2014-01-01
Using more than 750 estimates, we perform a meta-regression analysis of studies examining the relationship between economic growth per capita and natural disasters. The studies considered are very different with respect to the type of disasters considered, the sample of countries and time periods
Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1990-01-01
Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems
Automated differentiation of computer models for sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Worley, B.A.
1991-01-01
Sensitivity analysis of reactor physics computer models is an established discipline after more than twenty years of active development of generalized perturbations theory based on direct and adjoint methods. Many reactor physics models have been enhanced to solve for sensitivities of model results to model data. The calculated sensitivities are usually normalized first derivatives, although some codes are capable of solving for higher-order sensitivities. The purpose of this paper is to report on the development and application of the GRESS system for automating the implementation of the direct and adjoint techniques into existing FORTRAN computer codes. The GRESS system was developed at ORNL to eliminate the costly man-power intensive effort required to implement the direct and adjoint techniques into already-existing FORTRAN codes. GRESS has been successfully tested for a number of codes over a wide range of applications and presently operates on VAX machines under both VMS and UNIX operating systems. (author). 9 refs, 1 tab
A Global Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Multi-physics Applications
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tong, C H; Graziani, F R
2007-02-02
Experiments are conducted to draw inferences about an entire ensemble based on a selected number of observations. This applies to both physical experiments as well as computer experiments, the latter of which are performed by running the simulation models at different input configurations and analyzing the output responses. Computer experiments are instrumental in enabling model analyses such as uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. This report focuses on a global sensitivity analysis methodology that relies on a divide-and-conquer strategy and uses intelligent computer experiments. The objective is to assess qualitatively and/or quantitatively how the variabilities of simulation output responses can be accounted for by input variabilities. We address global sensitivity analysis in three aspects: methodology, sampling/analysis strategies, and an implementation framework. The methodology consists of three major steps: (1) construct credible input ranges; (2) perform a parameter screening study; and (3) perform a quantitative sensitivity analysis on a reduced set of parameters. Once identified, research effort should be directed to the most sensitive parameters to reduce their uncertainty bounds. This process is repeated with tightened uncertainty bounds for the sensitive parameters until the output uncertainties become acceptable. To accommodate the needs of multi-physics application, this methodology should be recursively applied to individual physics modules. The methodology is also distinguished by an efficient technique for computing parameter interactions. Details for each step will be given using simple examples. Numerical results on large scale multi-physics applications will be available in another report. Computational techniques targeted for this methodology have been implemented in a software package called PSUADE.
Economic Status and Adult Mortality in India: Is the Relationship Sensitive to Choice of Indicators?
Barik, Debasis; Desai, Sonalde; Vanneman, Reeve
2018-03-01
Research on economic status and adult mortality is often stymied by the reciprocity of this relationship and lack of clarity on which aspect of economic status matters. While financial resources increase access to healthcare and nutrition and reduce mortality, sickness also reduces labor force participation, thereby reducing income. Without longitudinal data, it is difficult to study the linkage between economic status and mortality. Using data from a national sample of 132,116 Indian adults aged 15 years and above, this paper examines their likelihood of death between wave 1 of the India Human Development Survey (IHDS), conducted in 2004-2005 and wave 2, conducted in 2011-2012. The results show that mortality between the two waves is strongly linked to the economic status of the household at wave 1 regardless of the choice of indicator for economic status. However, negative relationship between economic status and mortality for individuals already suffering from cardiovascular and metabolic conditions varies between three markers of economic status - income, consumption and ownership of consumer durables - varies, reflecting two-way relationship between short and long term markers of economic status and morbidity.
The back end of the nuclear fuel cycle: technical and economic analysis-Part 1
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Roglans-Ribas, J.; Spinrad, B.I.
1990-01-01
The back end of the nuclear fuel cycle has been analyzed under current conditions in the United States, taking into consideration the framework defined by the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982 and its amendments. The different steps of the back end of the fuel cycle are studied and different alternatives are compared under technical and economic criteria. Several technical issues have been analyzed for their impact on the economics of the fuel cycle. The bases for the analysis are explained, and the results for a once-through cycle are presented. The results show that a repository in tuff represents the minimum cost situation. The economic model appears very sensitive to several parameters, in particular the period of retrievability and the storage costs
Sensitivity analysis of U238 cross section in thermal nuclear systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Amorim, E.S. do; D'Oliveira, A.B.; Oliveira, E.C. de; Moura Neto, C. de.
1980-01-01
A sensitivity analysis system is developed for assessing the implication of uncertainties in nuclear data and related computational methods for light water power reactor. Sensitivies, at equilibrium cycle condition, are carried out for the few group macroscopic cross section of the U 238 with respect to their 35 group microscopic absorption cross section using the batch depletion code SENTEAV similar to those calculation methods used in the industry. This investigation indicates that improvements are requested on specific range of energy. These results point out the direction for worth while experimental measurements based on an analysis of costs and economic benefits. (Author) [pt
Economic Efficiencyo on Limited Liability Companies: some Considerations on Economic Analysis of Law
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martinho Martins Botelho
2016-12-01
Full Text Available This paper presents briefly a theoretical approach about limited efficiency from the perspective Economic Analysis of Law (EAL of the limited liability company by examining initially the question of limited liability, under the scrutiny of the pro-rata theory and model manager-investor. It approaches the liability of directors of corporations incorporated in the form of a limited company. Subsequently, its theoretical approaches are about the analysis of the first generation of agency theory (contract manager-investor incentives, the hypothesis of Modigliani-Miller irrelevance, and structures of great property.
Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.
1987-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed
The Volatility of Data Space: Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis
Du, Jing; Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika
2015-01-01
Despite the difference among specific methods, existing Sensitivity Analysis (SA) technologies are all value-based, that is, the uncertainties in the model input and output are quantified as changes of values. This paradigm provides only limited insight into the nature of models and the modeled systems. In addition to the value of data, a potentially richer information about the model lies in the topological difference between pre-model data space and post-model data space. This paper introduces an innovative SA method called Topology Oriented Sensitivity Analysis, which defines sensitivity as the volatility of data space. It extends SA into a deeper level that lies in the topology of data. PMID:26368929
Interactive Building Design Space Exploration Using Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Østergård, Torben; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Maagaard, Steffen
2017-01-01
simulation inputs are most important and which have negligible influence on the model output. Popular sensitivity methods include the Morris method, variance-based methods (e.g. Sobol’s), and regression methods (e.g. SRC). However, all these methods only address one output at a time, which makes it difficult...... in combination with the interactive parallel coordinate plot (PCP). The latter is an effective tool to explore stochastic simulations and to find high-performing building designs. The proposed methods help decision makers to focus their attention to the most important design parameters when exploring......Monte Carlo simulations combined with regionalized sensitivity analysis provide the means to explore a vast, multivariate design space in building design. Typically, sensitivity analysis shows how the variability of model output relates to the uncertainties in models inputs. This reveals which...
Sensitization trajectories in childhood revealed by using a cluster analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schoos, Ann-Marie M.; Chawes, Bo L.; Melen, Erik
2017-01-01
Prospective Studies on Asthma in Childhood 2000 (COPSAC2000) birth cohort with specific IgE against 13 common food and inhalant allergens at the ages of ½, 1½, 4, and 6 years. An unsupervised cluster analysis for 3-dimensional data (nonnegative sparse parallel factor analysis) was used to extract latent......BACKGROUND: Assessment of sensitization at a single time point during childhood provides limited clinical information. We hypothesized that sensitization develops as specific patterns with respect to age at debut, development over time, and involved allergens and that such patterns might be more...... biologically and clinically relevant. OBJECTIVE: We sought to explore latent patterns of sensitization during the first 6 years of life and investigate whether such patterns associate with the development of asthma, rhinitis, and eczema. METHODS: We investigated 398 children from the at-risk Copenhagen...
Economic Optimization Analysis of Chengdu Electric Community Bus Operation
Yidong, Wang; Yun, Cai; Zhengping, Tan; Xiong, Wan
2018-03-01
In recent years, the government has strongly supported and promoted electric vehicles and has given priority to demonstration and popularization in the field of public transport. The economy of public transport operations has drawn increasing attention. In this paper, Chengdu wireless charging pure electric community bus is used as the research object, the battery, air conditioning, driver’s driving behavior and other economic influence factors were analyzed, and optimizing the operation plan through case data analysis, through the reasonable battery matching and mode of operation to help businesses effectively save operating costs and enhance economic efficiency.
Time-dependent reliability sensitivity analysis of motion mechanisms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei, Pengfei; Song, Jingwen; Lu, Zhenzhou; Yue, Zhufeng
2016-01-01
Reliability sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the source of structure/mechanism failure, and quantifying the effects of each random source or their distribution parameters on failure probability or reliability. In this paper, the time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity (PRS) analysis as well as the global reliability sensitivity (GRS) analysis is introduced for the motion mechanisms. The PRS indices are defined as the partial derivatives of the time-dependent reliability w.r.t. the distribution parameters of each random input variable, and they quantify the effect of the small change of each distribution parameter on the time-dependent reliability. The GRS indices are defined for quantifying the individual, interaction and total contributions of the uncertainty in each random input variable to the time-dependent reliability. The envelope function method combined with the first order approximation of the motion error function is introduced for efficiently estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices. Both the time-dependent PRS and GRS analysis techniques can be especially useful for reliability-based design. This significance of the proposed methods as well as the effectiveness of the envelope function method for estimating the time-dependent PRS and GRS indices are demonstrated with a four-bar mechanism and a car rack-and-pinion steering linkage. - Highlights: • Time-dependent parametric reliability sensitivity analysis is presented. • Time-dependent global reliability sensitivity analysis is presented for mechanisms. • The proposed method is especially useful for enhancing the kinematic reliability. • An envelope method is introduced for efficiently implementing the proposed methods. • The proposed method is demonstrated by two real planar mechanisms.
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of system availability using Gaussian processes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Daneshkhah, Alireza; Bedford, Tim
2013-01-01
The availability of a system under a given failure/repair process is a function of time which can be determined through a set of integral equations and usually calculated numerically. We focus here on the issue of carrying out sensitivity analysis of availability to determine the influence of the input parameters. The main purpose is to study the sensitivity of the system availability with respect to the changes in the main parameters. In the simplest case that the failure repair process is (continuous time/discrete state) Markovian, explicit formulae are well known. Unfortunately, in more general cases availability is often a complicated function of the parameters without closed form solution. Thus, the computation of sensitivity measures would be time-consuming or even infeasible. In this paper, we show how Sobol and other related sensitivity measures can be cheaply computed to measure how changes in the model inputs (failure/repair times) influence the outputs (availability measure). We use a Bayesian framework, called the Bayesian analysis of computer code output (BACCO) which is based on using the Gaussian process as an emulator (i.e., an approximation) of complex models/functions. This approach allows effective sensitivity analysis to be achieved by using far smaller numbers of model runs than other methods. The emulator-based sensitivity measure is used to examine the influence of the failure and repair densities' parameters on the system availability. We discuss how to apply the methods practically in the reliability context, considering in particular the selection of parameters and prior distributions and how we can ensure these may be considered independent—one of the key assumptions of the Sobol approach. The method is illustrated on several examples, and we discuss the further implications of the technique for reliability and maintenance analysis
Analytic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models with input correlations
Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping A.; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu
2018-03-01
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis is a common means of evaluating mathematical models. In mathematical modeling, the uncertainty in input variables is specified through distribution laws. Its contribution to the uncertainty in model response is usually analyzed by assuming that input variables are independent of each other. However, correlated parameters are often happened in practical applications. In the present paper, an analytic method is built for the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of models in the presence of input correlations. With the method, it is straightforward to identify the importance of the independence and correlations of input variables in determining the model response. This allows one to decide whether or not the input correlations should be considered in practice. Numerical examples suggest the effectiveness and validation of our analytic method in the analysis of general models. A practical application of the method is also proposed to the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a deterministic HIV model.
Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rose, Adam; Prager, Fynn; Chen, Zhenhua; Chatterjee, Samrat; Wei, Dan; Heatwole, Nathaniel; Warren, Eric
2017-04-15
This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.
[Economic analysis of multinational clinical trials in oncology].
Lejeune, Catherine; Lueza, Béranger; Bonastre, Julia
2018-02-01
In oncology, as in other fields of medicine, international multicentre clinical trials came into being so as to include a sufficient number of subjects to investigate a clinical situation. The existence of tight budgetary constraints and the desire to make the best use of the resources available have resulted in the development of economic evaluations associated with these trials, which, thanks to their level of evidence and their size, provide particularly relevant material. Nonetheless, economic evaluations alongside international clinical trials raise specific questions of methodology with regard to both the design and the analysis of the results. Indeed, the costs of goods and services consumed, the types and quantities of resources, and medical practices vary from one country to another and within an individual country. Economic data from the different countries involved must be available so as to study and to take into account this variability, and appropriate techniques for cost estimations and analysis must be implemented to aggregate the results from several countries. From a review of the literature, the aim of this work was to provide an overview of the specific methodological features of economic evaluations alongside international clinical trials: analysis of efficacy data from several countries, collection of resources and real costs, methods to establish the monetary value of resources, methods to aggregate results accounting for the trial effect. Copyright © 2017 Société Française du Cancer. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.
Sensitivity analysis on uncertainty variables affecting the NPP's LUEC with probabilistic approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nuryanti; Akhmad Hidayatno; Erlinda Muslim
2013-01-01
One thing that is quite crucial to be reviewed prior to any investment decision on the nuclear power plant (NPP) project is the calculation of project economic, including calculation of Levelized Unit Electricity Cost (LUEC). Infrastructure projects such as NPP’s project are vulnerable to a number of uncertainty variables. Information on the uncertainty variables which makes LUEC’s value quite sensitive due to the changes of them is necessary in order the cost overrun can be avoided. Therefore this study aimed to do the sensitivity analysis on variables that affect LUEC with probabilistic approaches. This analysis was done by using Monte Carlo technique that simulate the relationship between the uncertainty variables and visible impact on LUEC. The sensitivity analysis result shows the significant changes on LUEC value of AP1000 and OPR due to the sensitivity of investment cost and capacity factors. While LUEC changes due to sensitivity of U 3 O 8 ’s price looks not quite significant. (author)
Sensitivity Analysis Applied in Design of Low Energy Office Building
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik
2008-01-01
satisfies the design requirements and objectives. In the design of sustainable Buildings it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to develop more efficiently alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. A sensitivity analysis makes it possible...
Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Design of Sustainable Buildings
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Heiselberg, Per; Brohus, Henrik; Hesselholt, Allan Tind
2007-01-01
satisfies the design requirements and objectives. In the design of sustainable Buildings it is beneficial to identify the most important design parameters in order to develop more efficiently alternative design solutions or reach optimized design solutions. A sensitivity analysis makes it possible...
Sensitivity analysis of physiochemical interaction model: which pair ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
... of two model parameters at a time on the solution trajectory of physiochemical interaction over a time interval. Our aim is to use this powerful mathematical technique to select the important pair of parameters of this physical process which is cost-effective. Keywords: Passivation Rate, Sensitivity Analysis, ODE23, ODE45 ...
Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.
Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng
2014-04-01
Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.
Sensitivity analysis for contagion effects in social networks
VanderWeele, Tyler J.
2014-01-01
Analyses of social network data have suggested that obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness all travel through social networks. Individuals exert “contagion effects” on one another through social ties and association. These analyses have come under critique because of the possibility that homophily from unmeasured factors may explain these statistical associations and because similar findings can be obtained when the same methodology is applied to height, acne and head-aches, for which the conclusion of contagion effects seems somewhat less plausible. We use sensitivity analysis techniques to assess the extent to which supposed contagion effects for obesity, smoking, happiness and loneliness might be explained away by homophily or confounding and the extent to which the critique using analysis of data on height, acne and head-aches is relevant. Sensitivity analyses suggest that contagion effects for obesity and smoking cessation are reasonably robust to possible latent homophily or environmental confounding; those for happiness and loneliness are somewhat less so. Supposed effects for height, acne and head-aches are all easily explained away by latent homophily and confounding. The methodology that has been employed in past studies for contagion effects in social networks, when used in conjunction with sensitivity analysis, may prove useful in establishing social influence for various behaviors and states. The sensitivity analysis approach can be used to address the critique of latent homophily as a possible explanation of associations interpreted as contagion effects. PMID:25580037
Sensitivity Analysis of a Horizontal Earth Electrode under Impulse ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper presents the sensitivity analysis of an earthing conductor under the influence of impulse current arising from a lightning stroke. The approach is based on the 2nd order finite difference time domain (FDTD). The earthing conductor is regarded as a lossy transmission line where it is divided into series connected ...
Beyond the GUM: variance-based sensitivity analysis in metrology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lira, I
2016-01-01
Variance-based sensitivity analysis is a well established tool for evaluating the contribution of the uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output of a general mathematical model. While the literature on this subject is quite extensive, it has not found widespread use in metrological applications. In this article we present a succinct review of the fundamentals of sensitivity analysis, in a form that should be useful to most people familiarized with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). Through two examples, it is shown that in linear measurement models, no new knowledge is gained by using sensitivity analysis that is not already available after the terms in the so-called ‘law of propagation of uncertainties’ have been computed. However, if the model behaves non-linearly in the neighbourhood of the best estimates of the input quantities—and if these quantities are assumed to be statistically independent—sensitivity analysis is definitely advantageous for gaining insight into how they can be ranked according to their importance in establishing the uncertainty of the measurand. (paper)
Sensitivity analysis of the Ohio phosphorus risk index
The Phosphorus (P) Index is a widely used tool for assessing the vulnerability of agricultural fields to P loss; yet, few of the P Indices developed in the U.S. have been evaluated for their accuracy. Sensitivity analysis is one approach that can be used prior to calibration and field-scale testing ...
Sensitivity analysis for oblique incidence reflectometry using Monte Carlo simulations
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kamran, Faisal; Andersen, Peter E.
2015-01-01
profiles. This article presents a sensitivity analysis of the technique in turbid media. Monte Carlo simulations are used to investigate the technique and its potential to distinguish the small changes between different levels of scattering. We present various regions of the dynamic range of optical...
Omitted Variable Sensitivity Analysis with the Annotated Love Plot
Hansen, Ben B.; Fredrickson, Mark M.
2014-01-01
The goal of this research is to make sensitivity analysis accessible not only to empirical researchers but also to the various stakeholders for whom educational evaluations are conducted. To do this it derives anchors for the omitted variable (OV)-program participation association intrinsically, using the Love plot to present a wide range of…
Weighting-Based Sensitivity Analysis in Causal Mediation Studies
Hong, Guanglei; Qin, Xu; Yang, Fan
2018-01-01
Through a sensitivity analysis, the analyst attempts to determine whether a conclusion of causal inference could be easily reversed by a plausible violation of an identification assumption. Analytic conclusions that are harder to alter by such a violation are expected to add a higher value to scientific knowledge about causality. This article…
Sensitivity analysis of railpad parameters on vertical railway track dynamics
Oregui Echeverria-Berreyarza, M.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.
2016-01-01
This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of railpad parameters on vertical railway track dynamics, incorporating the nonlinear behavior of the fastening (i.e., downward forces compress the railpad whereas upward forces are resisted by the clamps). For this purpose, solid railpads, rail-railpad
Methods for global sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment
Groen, Evelyne A.; Bokkers, Eddy; Heijungs, Reinout; Boer, de Imke J.M.
2017-01-01
Purpose: Input parameters required to quantify environmental impact in life cycle assessment (LCA) can be uncertain due to e.g. temporal variability or unknowns about the true value of emission factors. Uncertainty of environmental impact can be analysed by means of a global sensitivity analysis to
Sensitivity analysis on ultimate strength of aluminium stiffened panels
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rigo, P.; Sarghiuta, R.; Estefen, S.
2003-01-01
This paper presents the results of an extensive sensitivity analysis carried out by the Committee III.1 "Ultimate Strength" of ISSC?2003 in the framework of a benchmark on the ultimate strength of aluminium stiffened panels. Previously, different benchmarks were presented by ISSC committees on ul...
Sensitivity and specificity of coherence and phase synchronization analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Winterhalder, Matthias; Schelter, Bjoern; Kurths, Juergen; Schulze-Bonhage, Andreas; Timmer, Jens
2006-01-01
In this Letter, we show that coherence and phase synchronization analysis are sensitive but not specific in detecting the correct class of underlying dynamics. We propose procedures to increase specificity and demonstrate the power of the approach by application to paradigmatic dynamic model systems
Sensitivity Analysis of Structures by Virtual Distortion Method
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gierlinski, J.T.; Holnicki-Szulc, J.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard
1991-01-01
are used in structural optimization, see Haftka [4]. The recently developed Virtual Distortion Method (VDM) is a numerical technique which offers an efficient approach to calculation of the sensitivity derivatives. This method has been orginally applied to structural remodelling and collapse analysis, see...
Design tradeoff studies and sensitivity analysis. Appendix B
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1979-05-25
The results of the design trade-off studies and the sensitivity analysis of Phase I of the Near Term Hybrid Vehicle (NTHV) Program are presented. The effects of variations in the design of the vehicle body, propulsion systems, and other components on vehicle power, weight, cost, and fuel economy and an optimized hybrid vehicle design are discussed. (LCL)
Techno-economic analysis for the evaluation of three UCG synthesis gas end use approaches
Nakaten, Natalie; Kempka, Thomas; Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Krawczyk, Piotr; Kapusta, Krzysztof; Stańczyk, Krzysztof
2016-04-01
Underground coal gasification (UCG) enables the utilization of coal reserves that are economically not exploitable because of complex geological boundary conditions. In the present study we investigate UCG as a potential economic approach for conversion of deep-seated coals into a synthesis gas and its application within three different utilization options. Related to geological boundary conditions and the chosen gasification agent, UCG synthesis gas composes of varying methane, hydrogen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide amounts. In accordance to its calorific value, the processed UCG synthesis gas can be utilized in different manners, as for electricity generation in a combined cycle power plant or for feedstock production making use of its various chemical components. In the present study we analyze UCG synthesis gas utilization economics in the context of clean electricity generation with an integrated carbon capture and storage process (CCS) as well as synthetic fuel and fertilizer production (Kempka et al., 2010) based on a gas composition achieved during an in situ UCG trial in the Wieczorek Mine. Hereby, we also consider chemical feedstock production in order to mitigate CO2 emissions. Within a sensitivity analysis of UCG synthesis gas calorific value variations, we produce a range of capital and operational expenditure bandwidths that allow for an economic assessment of different synthesis gas end use approaches. To carry out the integrated techno-economic assessment of the coupled systems and the sensitivity analysis, we adapted the techno-economic UCG-CCS model developed by Nakaten et al. (2014). Our techno-economic modeling results demonstrate that the calorific value has a high impact on the economics of UCG synthesis gas utilization. In the underlying study, the synthesis gas is not suitable for an economic competitive electricity generation, due to the relatively low calorific value of 4.5 MJ/Nm³. To be a profitable option for electricity
ANALYSIS OF OPTION FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF STUDENTS STUDYING ECONOMICS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Camelia, VECHIU
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is important, entrepreneur plays a major role at micro and maroeconomic level. Entrepreneur is the manager and employee at the same time, is leader and innovator, his company provides products and services that society needs. Europe needs more entrepreneurs and those who want to follow the path of entrepreneurship needs to face multiple challenges that can be overcome when the future entrepreneur benefit from a complex entrepreneurship education. This paper aims, through applied questionnaire, to identify whether future economists are determined to choose the path of entrepreneurship and start a business on their own. Also, we wanted to identify the obstacles that interviewees consider that you have to struggle to start their business. We applied a questionnaire to students, final year bachelor's degree, studying economics. They were chosen because during the three years study several economic disciplines: microeconomics, macroeconomics, management, accounting, finance, law, economic analysis, the national economy, European policy.
Economic growth and energy consumption in Algeria: a causality analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cherfi, S.
2011-01-01
The purpose of this study is to review the causal link in the Granger sense, between energy consumption and economic growth in Algeria, to determine its implications for economic policy. The analysis was done based on Granger static and causality tests using statistical data on per capita primary energy consumption and gross domestic product per inhabitant in Algeria, over the 1965-2008 period. The results of the survey show that there is, in Algeria, a strong link between energy consumption per inhabitant and GDP per inhabitant. The results also suggest the lack of a long term impetus (no co-integration) between energy consumption and economic growth. In addition, there is a one-way causal link between GDP and energy consumption, i.e. the prior GDP data provides a better forecast of energy consumption level, but not the contrary. In other words, GDP explains consumption, not the contrary. (author)
Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E
2016-10-01
A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.
Detsky, A S
1993-05-01
In Canada, provincial formulary review committees consider the effectiveness, safety, and cost of products when they derive advice for each Minister of Health. This article offers a draft set of guidelines for pharmaceutical manufacturers making submissions which include economic information, moving beyond a simple presentation of the unit price of the pharmaceutical product (e.g. price per day or course of therapy) and comparison to similar prices for alternative products. A full economic analysis compares all relevant costs and clinical outcomes of the new product with alternate therapeutic strategies for treating patients with a particular condition. The perspective of the decision maker must be clearly identified. The quality of the evidence supporting estimates of the variables incorporated in the analysis should be evaluated. Sensitivity analyses are used to assess the robustness of the qualitative conclusions. Reviewers will examine the answers to a set of 19 questions. Manufacturers can use these questions as a worksheet for preparation of an economic analysis to be incorporated in a submission. These guidelines are intended to be a starting point for further refinement, and discussion with health economists in industry and academia. Considerable flexibility will be used in reviewing documentation supporting economic analysis. Those preparing submissions should be encouraged to experiment with various approaches as part of the general development of this field and to engage provincial review committees in ongoing discussions.
Sensitivity analysis and power for instrumental variable studies.
Wang, Xuran; Jiang, Yang; Zhang, Nancy R; Small, Dylan S
2018-03-31
In observational studies to estimate treatment effects, unmeasured confounding is often a concern. The instrumental variable (IV) method can control for unmeasured confounding when there is a valid IV. To be a valid IV, a variable needs to be independent of unmeasured confounders and only affect the outcome through affecting the treatment. When applying the IV method, there is often concern that a putative IV is invalid to some degree. We present an approach to sensitivity analysis for the IV method which examines the sensitivity of inferences to violations of IV validity. Specifically, we consider sensitivity when the magnitude of association between the putative IV and the unmeasured confounders and the direct effect of the IV on the outcome are limited in magnitude by a sensitivity parameter. Our approach is based on extending the Anderson-Rubin test and is valid regardless of the strength of the instrument. A power formula for this sensitivity analysis is presented. We illustrate its usage via examples about Mendelian randomization studies and its implications via a comparison of using rare versus common genetic variants as instruments. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.
Economic Impacts Analysis of Shale Gas Investment in China
Han, Shangfeng; Zhang, Baosheng; Wang, Xuecheng
2018-01-01
Chinese government has announced an ambitious shale gas extraction plan, which requires significant investment. This has the potential to draw investment from other areas and may affect the whole China’s economy. There is few study to date has quantified these shale gas investment’s effects on Chinese economy. The aim of this paper is to quantify the economic effect and figures out whether shale gas investment in China is a good choice or not. Input-output analysis has been utilized in this study to estimate the economic impacts in four different Chinese regions. Our findings show that shale gas investment will result in approximately 868, 427, 115 and 42 Billion RMB economic impacts in Sichuan, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia and Guizhou, respectively. The total economic impact is only around 1453 Billion RMB, which is not significant compared to the economic impact of coalbed methane investment. Considering the potential risks of environmental issues, we suggest that it may be a better strategy for the government, at least in the current situation, to slow down shale gas development investment.
Sensitivity analysis of LOFT L2-5 test calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Prosek, Andrej
2014-01-01
The uncertainty quantification of best-estimate code predictions is typically accompanied by a sensitivity analysis, in which the influence of the individual contributors to uncertainty is determined. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the improved fast Fourier transform based method by signal mirroring (FFTBM-SM) for the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity study was performed for the LOFT L2-5 test, which simulates the large break loss of coolant accident. There were 14 participants in the BEMUSE (Best Estimate Methods-Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation) programme, each performing a reference calculation and 15 sensitivity runs of the LOFT L2-5 test. The important input parameters varied were break area, gap conductivity, fuel conductivity, decay power etc. For the influence of input parameters on the calculated results the FFTBM-SM was used. The only difference between FFTBM-SM and original FFTBM is that in the FFTBM-SM the signals are symmetrized to eliminate the edge effect (the so called edge is the difference between the first and last data point of one period of the signal) in calculating average amplitude. It is very important to eliminate unphysical contribution to the average amplitude, which is used as a figure of merit for input parameter influence on output parameters. The idea is to use reference calculation as 'experimental signal', 'sensitivity run' as 'calculated signal', and average amplitude as figure of merit for sensitivity instead for code accuracy. The larger is the average amplitude the larger is the influence of varied input parameter. The results show that with FFTBM-SM the analyst can get good picture of the contribution of the parameter variation to the results. They show when the input parameters are influential and how big is this influence. FFTBM-SM could be also used to quantify the influence of several parameter variations on the results. However, the influential parameters could not be
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Harper, W.V.; Gupta, S.K.
1983-10-01
A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Talavera, D.L.; Nofuentes, G.; Aguilera, J.
2010-01-01
At present, photovoltaic grid-connected systems (PVGCS) are experiencing a formidable market growth. This is mainly due to a continuous downward trend in PV cost together with some government support programmes launched by many developed countries. However, government bodies and prospective owners/investors are concerned with how changes in existing economic factors - financial incentives and main economic parameters of the PVGCS - that configure a given scenario may affect the profitability of the investment in these systems. Consequently, not only is a mere estimate of the economic profitability in a specific moment required, but also how this profitability may vary according to changes in the existing scenario. In order to enlighten decision-makers and prospective owners/investors of PVGCS, a sensitivity analysis of the internal rate of return (IRR) to some economic factors has been carried out. Three different scenarios have been assumed to represent the three top geographical markets for PV: the Euro area, the USA and Japan. The results obtained in this analysis provide clear evidence that annual loan interest, normalised initial investment subsidy, normalised annual PV electricity yield, PV electricity unitary price and normalised initial investment are ordered from the lowest to the highest impact on the IRR. A short and broad analysis concerning the taxation impact is also provided. (author)
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of NET/ITER shielding blankets
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hogenbirk, A.; Gruppelaar, H.; Verschuur, K.A.
1990-09-01
Results are presented of sensitivity and uncertainty calculations based upon the European fusion file (EFF-1). The effect of uncertainties in Fe, Cr and Ni cross sections on the nuclear heating in the coils of a NET/ITER shielding blanket has been studied. The analysis has been performed for the total cross section as well as partial cross sections. The correct expression for the sensitivity profile was used, including the gain term. The resulting uncertainty in the nuclear heating lies between 10 and 20 per cent. (author). 18 refs.; 2 figs.; 2 tabs
Sensitivity analysis of critical experiments with evaluated nuclear data libraries
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fujiwara, D.; Kosaka, S.
2008-01-01
Criticality benchmark testing was performed with evaluated nuclear data libraries for thermal, low-enriched uranium fuel rod applications. C/E values for k eff were calculated with the continuous-energy Monte Carlo code MVP2 and its libraries generated from Endf/B-VI.8, Endf/B-VII.0, JENDL-3.3 and JEFF-3.1. Subsequently, the observed k eff discrepancies between libraries were decomposed to specify the source of difference in the nuclear data libraries using sensitivity analysis technique. The obtained sensitivity profiles are also utilized to estimate the adequacy of cold critical experiments to the boiling water reactor under hot operating condition. (authors)
Importance measures in global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Homma, Toshimitsu; Saltelli, Andrea
1996-01-01
The present paper deals with a new method of global sensitivity analysis of nonlinear models. This is based on a measure of importance to calculate the fractional contribution of the input parameters to the variance of the model prediction. Measures of importance in sensitivity analysis have been suggested by several authors, whose work is reviewed in this article. More emphasis is given to the developments of sensitivity indices by the Russian mathematician I.M. Sobol'. Given that Sobol' treatment of the measure of importance is the most general, his formalism is employed throughout this paper where conceptual and computational improvements of the method are presented. The computational novelty of this study is the introduction of the 'total effect' parameter index. This index provides a measure of the total effect of a given parameter, including all the possible synergetic terms between that parameter and all the others. Rank transformation of the data is also introduced in order to increase the reproducibility of the method. These methods are tested on a few analytical and computer models. The main conclusion of this work is the identification of a sensitivity analysis methodology which is both flexible, accurate and informative, and which can be achieved at reasonable computational cost
Rethinking Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Simulations with Topology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Paul Rosen; Andrea Alfonsi; Giovanni Pastore; Cristian Rabiti; Valerio Pascucci
2016-01-01
In nuclear engineering, understanding the safety margins of the nuclear reactor via simulations is arguably of paramount importance in predicting and preventing nuclear accidents. It is therefore crucial to perform sensitivity analysis to understand how changes in the model inputs affect the outputs. Modern nuclear simulation tools rely on numerical representations of the sensitivity information -- inherently lacking in visual encodings -- offering limited effectiveness in communicating and exploring the generated data. In this paper, we design a framework for sensitivity analysis and visualization of multidimensional nuclear simulation data using partition-based, topology-inspired regression models and report on its efficacy. We rely on the established Morse-Smale regression technique, which allows us to partition the domain into monotonic regions where easily interpretable linear models can be used to assess the influence of inputs on the output variability. The underlying computation is augmented with an intuitive and interactive visual design to effectively communicate sensitivity information to the nuclear scientists. Our framework is being deployed into the multi-purpose probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty quantification framework RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual Control Environment). We evaluate our framework using an simulation dataset studying nuclear fuel performance.
Prior Sensitivity Analysis in Default Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling.
van Erp, Sara; Mulder, Joris; Oberski, Daniel L
2017-11-27
Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) has recently gained popularity because it enables researchers to fit complex models and solve some of the issues often encountered in classical maximum likelihood estimation, such as nonconvergence and inadmissible solutions. An important component of any Bayesian analysis is the prior distribution of the unknown model parameters. Often, researchers rely on default priors, which are constructed in an automatic fashion without requiring substantive prior information. However, the prior can have a serious influence on the estimation of the model parameters, which affects the mean squared error, bias, coverage rates, and quantiles of the estimates. In this article, we investigate the performance of three different default priors: noninformative improper priors, vague proper priors, and empirical Bayes priors-with the latter being novel in the BSEM literature. Based on a simulation study, we find that these three default BSEM methods may perform very differently, especially with small samples. A careful prior sensitivity analysis is therefore needed when performing a default BSEM analysis. For this purpose, we provide a practical step-by-step guide for practitioners to conducting a prior sensitivity analysis in default BSEM. Our recommendations are illustrated using a well-known case study from the structural equation modeling literature, and all code for conducting the prior sensitivity analysis is available in the online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models
Boas, Sonja E. M.
2015-11-21
Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.
A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.
Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G
2015-11-21
Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.
ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF UKRAINIAN REGIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Оlena Kozyreva
2017-11-01
Full Text Available For a long period of time from 1991 to 2016, the socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions was characterized by enhanced differentiation and persistent inequality. Permanent preservation of the gap between the maximum and minimum values of indicators of socio-economic development of regions, in particular, the GRP per capita (8.8 times in 2014; disposable income of populace (10.3% in 2015; unemployment rate according to ILO methodology (in 2.8 times in January-September 2016, the volume of realized industrial products (38,9 times in January-September 2016 indicate the persistence of centre-periphery relations between regions in the economic space of the country. This situation reduces the overall efficiency of the economy, which is reflected by the decline of Ukraine’s position in the rankings of international organizations. According to the global competitiveness index in 2015, Ukraine has shifted from 76 to 79 place compared with 2014, according to the Index of Human Development, there was a slight increase from 83 to 81 place. To crown it all, taking into account the complexity of modern processes of Ukrainian regions’ socio-economic development, the total assessment of determination of Ukrainian regions’ levels of socio-economic development is required. The purpose of the article implies prompting the research results of determining the problem concerning the consolidated assessment of the socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions. Methodology. The article examines the processes of socio-economic development of Ukrainian regions and offers an analytical scheme of identification stage of problematic of the regions’ socioeconomic development. The article justifies a system of partial indicators and on its basis calculates the integral and generalizing indicators of economic and social development of Ukrainian regions. Analysis of recent researches and publications. Issues of spatial development of the country’s regions
Anisotropic analysis for seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring wells
Pan, Y.; Hsu, K.
2011-12-01
Taiwan is located at the boundaries of Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate. The movement of plate causes crustal uplift and lateral deformation to lead frequent earthquakes in the vicinity of Taiwan. The change of groundwater level trigged by earthquake has been observed and studied in Taiwan for many years. The change of groundwater may appear in oscillation and step changes. The former is caused by seismic waves. The latter is caused by the volumetric strain and reflects the strain status. Since the setting of groundwater monitoring well is easier and cheaper than the setting of strain gauge, the groundwater measurement may be used as a indication of stress. This research proposes the concept of seismic sensitivity of groundwater monitoring well and apply to DonHer station in Taiwan. Geostatistical method is used to analysis the anisotropy of seismic sensitivity. GIS is used to map the sensitive area of the existing groundwater monitoring well.
Sensitivity analysis of predictive models with an automated adjoint generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Oblow, E.M.
1987-01-01
The adjoint method is a well established sensitivity analysis methodology that is particularly efficient in large-scale modeling problems. The coefficients of sensitivity of a given response with respect to every parameter involved in the modeling code can be calculated from the solution of a single adjoint run of the code. Sensitivity coefficients provide a quantitative measure of the importance of the model data in calculating the final results. The major drawback of the adjoint method is the requirement for calculations of very large numbers of partial derivatives to set up the adjoint equations of the model. ADGEN is a software system that has been designed to eliminate this drawback and automatically implement the adjoint formulation in computer codes. The ADGEN system will be described and its use for improving performance assessments and predictive simulations will be discussed. 8 refs., 1 fig
Sensitivity analysis of time-dependent laminar flows
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hristova, H.; Etienne, S.; Pelletier, D.; Borggaard, J.
2004-01-01
This paper presents a general sensitivity equation method (SEM) for time dependent incompressible laminar flows. The SEM accounts for complex parameter dependence and is suitable for a wide range of problems. The formulation is verified on a problem with a closed form solution obtained by the method of manufactured solution. Systematic grid convergence studies confirm the theoretical rates of convergence in both space and time. The methodology is then applied to pulsatile flow around a square cylinder. Computations show that the flow starts with symmetrical vortex shedding followed by a transition to the traditional Von Karman street (alternate vortex shedding). Simulations show that the transition phase manifests itself earlier in the sensitivity fields than in the flow field itself. Sensitivities are then demonstrated for fast evaluation of nearby flows and uncertainty analysis. (author)
Computational Methods for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Broadhead, B.L.; Childs, R.L.; Rearden, B.T.
1999-01-01
Interest in the sensitivity methods that were developed and widely used in the 1970s (the FORSS methodology at ORNL among others) has increased recently as a result of potential use in the area of criticality safety data validation procedures to define computational bias, uncertainties and area(s) of applicability. Functional forms of the resulting sensitivity coefficients can be used as formal parameters in the determination of applicability of benchmark experiments to their corresponding industrial application areas. In order for these techniques to be generally useful to the criticality safety practitioner, the procedures governing their use had to be updated and simplified. This paper will describe the resulting sensitivity analysis tools that have been generated for potential use by the criticality safety community
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P. Simons
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karl W. Steininger
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords: climate impact, local impact, economic evaluation, adaptation
An Economic Analysis of Color-Blind Affirmative Action
Tolga Yuret
2008-01-01
This article offers an economic analysis of color-blind alternatives to conventional affirmative action policies in higher education, focusing on efficiency issues. When the distribution of applicants' traits is fixed (i.e., in the short-run) color blindness leads colleges to shift weight from academic traits that predict performance to social traits that proxy for race. Using data on matriculates at several selective colleges and universities, we estimate that the short-run efficiency cost o...
Parameter uncertainty effects on variance-based sensitivity analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yu, W.; Harris, T.J.
2009-01-01
In the past several years there has been considerable commercial and academic interest in methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis. The industrial focus is motivated by the importance of attributing variance contributions to input factors. A more complete understanding of these relationships enables companies to achieve goals related to quality, safety and asset utilization. In a number of applications, it is possible to distinguish between two types of input variables-regressive variables and model parameters. Regressive variables are those that can be influenced by process design or by a control strategy. With model parameters, there are typically no opportunities to directly influence their variability. In this paper, we propose a new method to perform sensitivity analysis through a partitioning of the input variables into these two groupings: regressive variables and model parameters. A sequential analysis is proposed, where first an sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the regressive variables. In the second step, the uncertainty effects arising from the model parameters are included. This strategy can be quite useful in understanding process variability and in developing strategies to reduce overall variability. When this method is used for nonlinear models which are linear in the parameters, analytical solutions can be utilized. In the more general case of models that are nonlinear in both the regressive variables and the parameters, either first order approximations can be used, or numerically intensive methods must be used
Understanding dynamics using sensitivity analysis: caveat and solution
2011-01-01
Background Parametric sensitivity analysis (PSA) has become one of the most commonly used tools in computational systems biology, in which the sensitivity coefficients are used to study the parametric dependence of biological models. As many of these models describe dynamical behaviour of biological systems, the PSA has subsequently been used to elucidate important cellular processes that regulate this dynamics. However, in this paper, we show that the PSA coefficients are not suitable in inferring the mechanisms by which dynamical behaviour arises and in fact it can even lead to incorrect conclusions. Results A careful interpretation of parametric perturbations used in the PSA is presented here to explain the issue of using this analysis in inferring dynamics. In short, the PSA coefficients quantify the integrated change in the system behaviour due to persistent parametric perturbations, and thus the dynamical information of when a parameter perturbation matters is lost. To get around this issue, we present a new sensitivity analysis based on impulse perturbations on system parameters, which is named impulse parametric sensitivity analysis (iPSA). The inability of PSA and the efficacy of iPSA in revealing mechanistic information of a dynamical system are illustrated using two examples involving switch activation. Conclusions The interpretation of the PSA coefficients of dynamical systems should take into account the persistent nature of parametric perturbations involved in the derivation of this analysis. The application of PSA to identify the controlling mechanism of dynamical behaviour can be misleading. By using impulse perturbations, introduced at different times, the iPSA provides the necessary information to understand how dynamics is achieved, i.e. which parameters are essential and when they become important. PMID:21406095
Sensitivity Analysis of Deviation Source for Fast Assembly Precision Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jianjun Tang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Assembly precision optimization of complex product has a huge benefit in improving the quality of our products. Due to the impact of a variety of deviation source coupling phenomena, the goal of assembly precision optimization is difficult to be confirmed accurately. In order to achieve optimization of assembly precision accurately and rapidly, sensitivity analysis of deviation source is proposed. First, deviation source sensitivity is defined as the ratio of assembly dimension variation and deviation source dimension variation. Second, according to assembly constraint relations, assembly sequences and locating, deviation transmission paths are established by locating the joints between the adjacent parts, and establishing each part’s datum reference frame. Third, assembly multidimensional vector loops are created using deviation transmission paths, and the corresponding scalar equations of each dimension are established. Then, assembly deviation source sensitivity is calculated by using a first-order Taylor expansion and matrix transformation method. Finally, taking assembly precision optimization of wing flap rocker as an example, the effectiveness and efficiency of the deviation source sensitivity analysis method are verified.
Sensitivity analysis for improving nanomechanical photonic transducers biosensors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fariña, D; Álvarez, M; Márquez, S; Lechuga, L M; Dominguez, C
2015-01-01
The achievement of high sensitivity and highly integrated transducers is one of the main challenges in the development of high-throughput biosensors. The aim of this study is to improve the final sensitivity of an opto-mechanical device to be used as a reliable biosensor. We report the analysis of the mechanical and optical properties of optical waveguide microcantilever transducers, and their dependency on device design and dimensions. The selected layout (geometry) based on two butt-coupled misaligned waveguides displays better sensitivities than an aligned one. With this configuration, we find that an optimal microcantilever thickness range between 150 nm and 400 nm would increase both microcantilever bending during the biorecognition process and increase optical sensitivity to 4.8 × 10 −2 nm −1 , an order of magnitude higher than other similar opto-mechanical devices. Moreover, the analysis shows that a single mode behaviour of the propagating radiation is required to avoid modal interference that could misinterpret the readout signal. (paper)
Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.
Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M
2012-02-01
Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.
Economic analysis of hybrid power systems (PV/diesel) in different climatic zones of Tamil Nadu
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suresh Kumar, U.; Manoharan, P.S.
2014-01-01
Highlights: • Investigation on economic feasibility of PV/diesel system in various climatic zones. • HOMER is used to solve economic feasibility analysis. • By the sensitivity analysis, the net present cost is reduced. • Optimum climatic zone in Tamil Nadu, India is recommended. - Abstract: With the increasing threat to environment and the fast depleting fossil fuel resources, hybrid power systems consisting of two or more renewable energy sources such as solar PV, wind, biomass, ocean thermal-with or without the back up of diesel generator have come to the forefront. These hybrid systems are normally integrated with battery banks for total reliability; such systems have brought about better quality of life in remote areas of developing economics. The remote areas in the state of Tamil Nadu in India possess excellent renewable energy sources. These areas fall under different climatic zones, are sparsely populated and are in the process of development. Though these areas are connected to the grid, Tamil Nadu grid is not stable; it is currently experiencing 40% short fall in generation. Thus grid power is available to these remote areas only for 10 h a day and even when available, there are voltage frequency problems. This paper analyses the economic feasibility of installing and operating hybrid systems in these areas. The areas are divided into different climatic zones and the hybrid system economy is analyzed for each climatic zone on the basis of NPC (net present cost), consumption of diesel and renewable fraction for all climate zones. The analysis indicates that the interior climatic zone – the area would be the optimum climatic zone to install HPS PV/diesel. The sensitivity analysis proves that the NPC of such a system can be reduced. It is suggested that due to high initial cost, government subsidy is necessary to adopt the system on a large scale. Such a profit will encourage development of renewable energy utilization and bring about rapid
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mazzucco, Andrea; Rokni, Masoud
2014-01-01
cost on the generation cost is also presented. In order to discuss the investment cost, an economic analysis has been carried out and main parameters such as Net Present Value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and Time of Return of Investment (TIR) are calculated and discussed.......% respectively which are significantly greater than conventional 10 MWe plants fed by biomass. Thermo-economic analysis provides an average cost of electricity for best performing layouts close to 6.4 and 9.4 c€/kWe which is competitive within the market. A sensitivity analysis of the influence of SOFC stack...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gerstl, S.A.W.
1980-01-01
SENSIT computes the sensitivity and uncertainty of a calculated integral response (such as a dose rate) due to input cross sections and their uncertainties. Sensitivity profiles are computed for neutron and gamma-ray reaction cross sections of standard multigroup cross section sets and for secondary energy distributions (SEDs) of multigroup scattering matrices. In the design sensitivity mode, SENSIT computes changes in an integral response due to design changes and gives the appropriate sensitivity coefficients. Cross section uncertainty analyses are performed for three types of input data uncertainties: cross-section covariance matrices for pairs of multigroup reaction cross sections, spectral shape uncertainty parameters for secondary energy distributions (integral SED uncertainties), and covariance matrices for energy-dependent response functions. For all three types of data uncertainties SENSIT computes the resulting variance and estimated standard deviation in an integral response of interest, on the basis of generalized perturbation theory. SENSIT attempts to be more comprehensive than earlier sensitivity analysis codes, such as SWANLAKE.
Least Squares Shadowing sensitivity analysis of chaotic limit cycle oscillations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wang, Qiqi, E-mail: qiqi@mit.edu; Hu, Rui, E-mail: hurui@mit.edu; Blonigan, Patrick, E-mail: blonigan@mit.edu
2014-06-15
The adjoint method, among other sensitivity analysis methods, can fail in chaotic dynamical systems. The result from these methods can be too large, often by orders of magnitude, when the result is the derivative of a long time averaged quantity. This failure is known to be caused by ill-conditioned initial value problems. This paper overcomes this failure by replacing the initial value problem with the well-conditioned “least squares shadowing (LSS) problem”. The LSS problem is then linearized in our sensitivity analysis algorithm, which computes a derivative that converges to the derivative of the infinitely long time average. We demonstrate our algorithm in several dynamical systems exhibiting both periodic and chaotic oscillations.
Therapeutic Implications from Sensitivity Analysis of Tumor Angiogenesis Models
Poleszczuk, Jan; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Enderling, Heiko
2015-01-01
Anti-angiogenic cancer treatments induce tumor starvation and regression by targeting the tumor vasculature that delivers oxygen and nutrients. Mathematical models prove valuable tools to study the proof-of-concept, efficacy and underlying mechanisms of such treatment approaches. The effects of parameter value uncertainties for two models of tumor development under angiogenic signaling and anti-angiogenic treatment are studied. Data fitting is performed to compare predictions of both models and to obtain nominal parameter values for sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the success of different cancer treatments depends on tumor size and tumor intrinsic parameters. In particular, we show that tumors with ample vascular support can be successfully targeted with conventional cytotoxic treatments. On the other hand, tumors with curtailed vascular support are not limited by their growth rate and therefore interruption of neovascularization emerges as the most promising treatment target. PMID:25785600
Global sensitivity analysis of multiscale properties of porous materials
Um, Kimoon; Zhang, Xuan; Katsoulakis, Markos; Plechac, Petr; Tartakovsky, Daniel M.
2018-02-01
Ubiquitous uncertainty about pore geometry inevitably undermines the veracity of pore- and multi-scale simulations of transport phenomena in porous media. It raises two fundamental issues: sensitivity of effective material properties to pore-scale parameters and statistical parameterization of Darcy-scale models that accounts for pore-scale uncertainty. Homogenization-based maps of pore-scale parameters onto their Darcy-scale counterparts facilitate both sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification. We treat uncertain geometric characteristics of a hierarchical porous medium as random variables to conduct global SA and to derive probabilistic descriptors of effective diffusion coefficients and effective sorption rate. Our analysis is formulated in terms of solute transport diffusing through a fluid-filled pore space, while sorbing to the solid matrix. Yet it is sufficiently general to be applied to other multiscale porous media phenomena that are amenable to homogenization.
Sensitivity analysis overlaps of friction elements in cartridge seals
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Žmindák Milan
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Cartridge seals are self-contained units consisting of a shaft sleeve, seals, and gland plate. The applications of mechanical seals are numerous. The most common example of application is in bearing production for automobile industry. This paper deals with the sensitivity analysis of overlaps friction elements in cartridge seal and their influence on the friction torque sealing and compressive force. Furthermore, it describes materials for the manufacture of sealings, approaches usually used to solution of hyperelastic materials by FEM and short introduction into the topic wheel bearings. The practical part contains one of the approach for measurement friction torque, which results were used to specifying the methodology and precision of FEM calculation realized by software ANSYS WORKBENCH. This part also contains the sensitivity analysis of overlaps friction elements.
An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
2005-01-01
Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models. This review surveys 'classic' and 'modern' designs for experiments with simulation models. Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc. These designs
Economic analysis of potential uses of geothermal energy in agriculture
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cone, B.W.
1978-02-01
The economic feasibility and water quality considerations of the cultural practice of soil warming was evaluated using existing technical, agronomic, and economic data. It was hypothesized that it is technically and economically feasible to use geothermal energy in the cultural practice of soil warming for specific crops. The analysis attempted to reject the hypothesis. Since the hypothesis could not be rejected, the results are presented as a profit equation suitable for inclusion in the GEOCOST computer program. This determination of economic feasibility utilized heterogeneous crop yield data by comparing the elasticity of response with a normalized product-factor price ratio. Soil warming was determined to be feasible when the elasticity of production was equal to or greater than the normalized product-factor price ratio. A farm enterprise was determined profitable if net returns were positive. An empirical model in which the energy dissipation rate is a function of the difference between heat source temperature and mean monthly air temperature was transformed to utilize data describing the total heat applied during the growing season. Heat input was then measured as the total number of calories per square centimeter applied during the growing season.
Socio-economic impact analysis of new AECB regulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rochman, E.H.
1985-06-01
The federal government's Socio-Economic Impact Analysis (SEIA) policy has been in effect since 1978. Under this policy, all new or amended regulations concerning health, safety, or fairness are subjected to a screening exercise which determines whether the regulations are 'major' or 'minor'. The costs and benefits of major regulations are analyzed in depth. This paper describes the SEIA policy and explains some of the basic concepts. Then the steps the Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) follows in the analysis of new regulations are summarized. Finally, the AECB's past and forthcoming experience with the SEIA policy is discussed
Probabilistic Sensitivities for Fatigue Analysis of Turbine Engine Disks
Harry R. Millwater; R. Wesley Osborn
2006-01-01
A methodology is developed and applied that determines the sensitivities of the probability-of-fracture of a gas turbine disk fatigue analysis with respect to the parameters of the probability distributions describing the random variables. The disk material is subject to initial anomalies, in either low- or high-frequency quantities, such that commonly used materials (titanium, nickel, powder nickel) and common damage mechanisms (inherent defects or su...
Influence analysis to assess sensitivity of the dropout process
Molenberghs, Geert; Verbeke, Geert; Thijs, Herbert; Lesaffre, Emmanuel; Kenward, Michael
2001-01-01
Diggle and Kenward (Appl. Statist. 43 (1994) 49) proposed a selection model for continuous longitudinal data subject to possible non-random dropout. It has provoked a large debate about the role for such models. The original enthusiasm was followed by skepticism about the strong but untestable assumption upon which this type of models invariably rests. Since then, the view has emerged that these models should ideally be made part of a sensitivity analysis. One of their examples is a set of da...
Synthesis, Characterization, and Sensitivity Analysis of Urea Nitrate (UN)
2015-04-01
determined. From the results of the study, UN is safe to store under normal operating conditions. 15. SUBJECT TERMS urea, nitrate , sensitivity, thermal ...HNO3). Due to its simple composition, ease of manufacture, and higher detonation parameters than ammonium nitrate , it has become one of the...an H50 value of 10.054 ± 0.620 inches. 5. Conclusions From the results of the thermal analysis study, it can be concluded that urea nitrate is
Applications of the TSUNAMI sensitivity and uncertainty analysis methodology
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rearden, Bradley T.; Hopper, Calvin M.; Elam, Karla R.; Goluoglu, Sedat; Parks, Cecil V.
2003-01-01
The TSUNAMI sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools under development for the SCALE code system have recently been applied in four criticality safety studies. TSUNAMI is used to identify applicable benchmark experiments for criticality code validation, assist in the design of new critical experiments for a particular need, reevaluate previously computed computational biases, and assess the validation coverage and propose a penalty for noncoverage for a specific application. (author)
[Economic analysis of health promotion conducted in an enterprise].
Wang, Zhi-chun; Yang, Xue-ying; Kang, Wen-long; Wang, Wen-jing
2013-12-01
To take intervention measures for health promotion after investigation of occupational health needs among employees, to analyze the economic input and output of the intervention measures, and to analyze the feasibility of health promotion through cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis. A survey was conducted in an enterprise using a self-designed questionnaire to investigate the general information on enterprise, occupational history of each employee, awareness of occupational health knowledge, awareness of general health knowledge, awareness of hypertension, acquired immune deficiency syndrome, etc., lifestyle, and needs for health knowledge. Intervention measures were taken in the enterprise according to the investigation results, and then investigation and economic analysis of investment in health promotion, economic benefit, and absence of employees were performed using the questionnaire. After intervention, the awareness rate of the Code of Occupational Disease Prevention increased from 4.5% to 15.3%, the awareness rate of the definition of occupational diseases increased from 4.5% to 73.5%, and the awareness rate of the prevention and control measures for occupational diseases increased from 38.4% to 85.8%. Before intervention, 25.4%of all employees thought salt intake needed to be reduced, and this proportion increased to 92.5% after intervention. After the control strategy for health promotion, the benefit of health promotion that results from avoiding absence of employees and preventing occupational diseases was more than ten times the investment in health promotion, suggesting a significant benefit of health promotion conducted in the enterprise. The return on health promotion's investment for enterprise is worth. Health promotion really not just contribute to improve hygienic knowledge but increase the economic benefit.
Economic and policy analysis for solar PV systems in Indiana
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jung, Jinho; Tyner, Wallace E.
2014-01-01
In recent years, the energy market in the US and globally is expanding the production of renewable energy. Solar energy for electricity is also expanding in the US. Indiana is one of the states expanding solar energy with solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Therefore, we conduct benefit cost analysis with several uncertain input variables to determine the economics of adopting solar PV systems in Indiana based on policy instruments that could increase adoption of solar PV systems. The specific objectives are analyses of the cost distribution of solar PV systems compared with grid electricity in homes and estimating the probability that solar can be cheaper than electricity from grids under different policy combinations. We first do the analysis under current policy and then the analysis under potential policy options for a variety of scenarios. Also, the results inform government policy makers on how effective the alternative policies for encouraging solar PV systems are. The results show that current policies are important in reducing the cost of solar PV systems. However, with current policies, there is only 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than electricity from grids. If potential policies are implemented, solar PV systems can be more economical than grid electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the economics of solar PV systems based on policy instruments. • We do scenario analyses under different combinations of policies. • We examine the probability of solar being cheaper than grid electricity for each scenario. • With current policies, there is 50–50 chance of solar being cheaper than the grid. • With depreciation and carbon tax, solar is much more economical than the grid
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GAPS BETWEEN URBAN AND RURAL ROMANIAN AREAS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Toader Valentin
2011-07-01
Full Text Available In this paper the authors will perform a comparative analysis of the impact that the population residential areas have on the economic and social activity from Romania. Our analysis will be carried out for a time span of 10 years, between 2000 and 2009. The main purposes are to emphasize the economic gaps between the residential areas (urban and rural and to identify the factors that determine these gaps. The economic differences between rural and urban areas and their impact on the peoples standard of living represent an important issue for international institutions like IFRC, UNICEF or OECD. Also, this topic represents a frequent subject in the economic literature from poor and developing countries. Studies conducted by Huong and Booth (2010, Alister, Alana and Ayele (2007, Chao, Zhidong and Mingxing (2008, Mateoc-Srb, Mateoc, Darva?i and Manescu (2008 or Sahn and Stifel (2002 are representative examples. Most of these papers focus on the living standards differences generated by the differences between income and expenditures between urban and rural areas. To achieve our goals, we will use the statistical methods to analyze the data released by the National Institute of Statistics. We will try to find some correlations between the economic indicators household incomes, value and structure of household expenditures, structure of household expenditures the social indicators residential area, education level, age and occupation. The highlight of the gaps between the rural and urban areas will be the main objective during this analysis. We conclude that in Romania there are substantial differences between rural and urban areas. The income differences are determining different consumption patterns between rural and urban persons. In rural areas, the population is spending less in all goods and services aspect that reduce their standard of living. Anyway, the results obtained are the subject of at least two possible limits. The fact that the data
Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model
Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.
2010-01-01
As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.
Global sensitivity analysis using a Gaussian Radial Basis Function metamodel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Zeping; Wang, Donghui; Okolo N, Patrick; Hu, Fan; Zhang, Weihua
2016-01-01
Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in exploring the actual impact of adjustable parameters on response variables. Amongst the wide range of documented studies on sensitivity measures and analysis, Sobol' indices have received greater portion of attention due to the fact that they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a novel analytical expression to compute the Sobol' indices is derived by introducing a method which uses the Gaussian Radial Basis Function to build metamodels of computationally expensive computer codes. Performance of the proposed method is validated against various analytical functions and also a structural simulation scenario. Results demonstrate that the proposed method is an efficient approach, requiring a computational cost of one to two orders of magnitude less when compared to the traditional Quasi Monte Carlo-based evaluation of Sobol' indices. - Highlights: • RBF based sensitivity analysis method is proposed. • Sobol' decomposition of Gaussian RBF metamodel is obtained. • Sobol' indices of Gaussian RBF metamodel are derived based on the decomposition. • The efficiency of proposed method is validated by some numerical examples.
Sensitivity analysis in multiple imputation in effectiveness studies of psychotherapy.
Crameri, Aureliano; von Wyl, Agnes; Koemeda, Margit; Schulthess, Peter; Tschuschke, Volker
2015-01-01
The importance of preventing and treating incomplete data in effectiveness studies is nowadays emphasized. However, most of the publications focus on randomized clinical trials (RCT). One flexible technique for statistical inference with missing data is multiple imputation (MI). Since methods such as MI rely on the assumption of missing data being at random (MAR), a sensitivity analysis for testing the robustness against departures from this assumption is required. In this paper we present a sensitivity analysis technique based on posterior predictive checking, which takes into consideration the concept of clinical significance used in the evaluation of intra-individual changes. We demonstrate the possibilities this technique can offer with the example of irregular longitudinal data collected with the Outcome Questionnaire-45 (OQ-45) and the Helping Alliance Questionnaire (HAQ) in a sample of 260 outpatients. The sensitivity analysis can be used to (1) quantify the degree of bias introduced by missing not at random data (MNAR) in a worst reasonable case scenario, (2) compare the performance of different analysis methods for dealing with missing data, or (3) detect the influence of possible violations to the model assumptions (e.g., lack of normality). Moreover, our analysis showed that ratings from the patient's and therapist's version of the HAQ could significantly improve the predictive value of the routine outcome monitoring based on the OQ-45. Since analysis dropouts always occur, repeated measurements with the OQ-45 and the HAQ analyzed with MI are useful to improve the accuracy of outcome estimates in quality assurance assessments and non-randomized effectiveness studies in the field of outpatient psychotherapy.
Khan, Afed U.; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Zheng, Yi
2017-10-01
Surface waters exhibit regionalization due to various climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. Here we assess the impact of topographic and socio-economic factors on the climate sensitivity of surface water quality, estimated using an elasticity approach (climate elasticity of water quality (CEWQ)), and identify potential risks of instability in different regions and climatic conditions. Large global datasets were used for 12 main water quality parameters from 43 water quality monitoring stations located at large major rivers. The results demonstrated that precipitation elasticity shows higher sensitivity to topographic and socio-economic determinants as compared to temperature elasticity. In tropical climate class (A), gross domestic product (GDP) played an important role in stabilizing the CEWQ. In temperate climate class (C), GDP played the same role in stability, while the runoff coefficient, slope, and population density fuelled the risk of instability. The results implied that watersheds with lower runoff coefficient, thick population density, over fertilization and manure application face a higher risk of instability. We discuss the socio-economic and topographic factors that cause instability of CEWQ parameters and conclude with some suggestions for watershed managers to bring sustainability in freshwater bodies.
B1 -sensitivity analysis of quantitative magnetization transfer imaging.
Boudreau, Mathieu; Stikov, Nikola; Pike, G Bruce
2018-01-01
To evaluate the sensitivity of quantitative magnetization transfer (qMT) fitted parameters to B 1 inaccuracies, focusing on the difference between two categories of T 1 mapping techniques: B 1 -independent and B 1 -dependent. The B 1 -sensitivity of qMT was investigated and compared using two T 1 measurement methods: inversion recovery (IR) (B 1 -independent) and variable flip angle (VFA), B 1 -dependent). The study was separated into four stages: 1) numerical simulations, 2) sensitivity analysis of the Z-spectra, 3) healthy subjects at 3T, and 4) comparison using three different B 1 imaging techniques. For typical B 1 variations in the brain at 3T (±30%), the simulations resulted in errors of the pool-size ratio (F) ranging from -3% to 7% for VFA, and -40% to > 100% for IR, agreeing with the Z-spectra sensitivity analysis. In healthy subjects, pooled whole-brain Pearson correlation coefficients for F (comparing measured double angle and nominal flip angle B 1 maps) were ρ = 0.97/0.81 for VFA/IR. This work describes the B 1 -sensitivity characteristics of qMT, demonstrating that it varies substantially on the B 1 -dependency of the T 1 mapping method. Particularly, the pool-size ratio is more robust against B 1 inaccuracies if VFA T 1 mapping is used, so much so that B 1 mapping could be omitted without substantially biasing F. Magn Reson Med 79:276-285, 2018. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.
Economic analysis requirements in support of orbital debris regulatory policy
Greenberg, Joel S.
1996-10-01
As the number of Earth orbiting objects increases so does the potential for generating orbital debris with the consequent increase in the likelihood of impacting and damaging operating satellites. Various debris remediation approaches are being considered that encompass both in-orbit and return-to-Earth schema and have varying degrees of operations, cost, international competitiveness, and safety implications. Because of the diversity of issues, concerns and long-term impacts, there is a clear need for the setting of government policies that will lead to an orderly abatement of the potential orbital debris hazards. These policies may require the establishment of a supportive regulatory regime. The Department of Transportation is likely to have regulatory responsibilities relating to orbital debris stemming from its charge to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security interests and foreign policy interests of the United States. This paper describes DOT's potential regulatory role relating to orbital debris remediation, the myriad of issues concerning the need for establishing government policies relating to orbital debris remediation and their regulatory implications, the proposed technological solutions and their economic and safety implications. Particular emphasis is placed upon addressing cost-effectiveness and economic analyses as they relate to economic impact analysis in support of regulatory impact analysis.
Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.
1990-01-01
The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States
Economic analysis of radioactive waste storage and disposal projects
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kleinen, P.J.; Starnes, R.B.
1995-01-01
Radioactive waste storage and disposal efforts present challenging issues for cost and economic analyses. In particular, legal requirements for states and compact areas to develop radioactive waste disposal sites, combined with closure of some sites, have placed urgency on planning, locating, and constructing storage and disposal sites. Cost analyses of potential projects are important to the decision processes. Principal objectives for cost analyses for projects are to identify all activities, covering the entire project life cycle, and to develop costs for those activities using methods that allow direct comparisons between competing project alternatives. For radioactive waste projects, long project lives ranging from tens of years to 100 or more years must be considered. Alternative, and competing, technologies, designs, and operating plans must be evaluated. Thorough base cost estimates must be made for all project phases: planning, development, licensing/permitting, construction, operations, and maintenance, closure, and post-closure/institutional care. Economic analysis procedures need to accommodate the specific features of each project alternative and facilitate cost comparisons between differing alternatives. Economic analysis assumptions must be developed to address the unusually long project lives involved in radioactive waste projects
Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.
2006-01-01
Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)
Cost-of-illness analysis. What room in health economics?
Tarricone, Rosanna
2006-06-01
Cost-of-illness (COI) was the first economic evaluation technique used in the health field. The principal aim was to measure the economic burden of illness to society. Its usefulness as a decision-making tool has however been questioned since its inception. The main criticism came from welfare economists who rejected COIs because they were not grounded in welfare economics theory. Other attacks related to the use of the human capital approach (HCA) to evaluate morbidity and mortality costs since it was said that the HCA had nothing to do with the value people attach to their lives. Finally, objections were made that COI could not be of any help to decision makers and that other forms of economic evaluation (e.g. cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis) would be much more useful to those taking decisions and ranking priorities. Conversely, it is here suggested that COI can be a good economic tool to inform decision makers if it is considered from another perspective. COI is a descriptive study that can provide information to support the political process as well as the management functions at different levels of the healthcare organisations. To do that, the design of the study must be innovative, capable of measuring the true cost to society; to estimate the main cost components and their incidence over total costs; to envisage the different subjects who bear the costs; to identify the actual clinical management of illness; and to explain cost variability. In order to reach these goals, COI need to be designed as observational bottom-up studies.
Probability and sensitivity analysis of machine foundation and soil interaction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Králik J., jr.
2009-06-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the possibility of the sensitivity and probabilistic analysis of the reliability of the machine foundation depending on variability of the soil stiffness, structure geometry and compressor operation. The requirements to design of the foundation under rotating machines increased due to development of calculation method and computer tools. During the structural design process, an engineer has to consider problems of the soil-foundation and foundation-machine interaction from the safety, reliability and durability of structure point of view. The advantages and disadvantages of the deterministic and probabilistic analysis of the machine foundation resistance are discussed. The sensitivity of the machine foundation to the uncertainties of the soil properties due to longtime rotating movement of machine is not negligible for design engineers. On the example of compressor foundation and turbine fy. SIEMENS AG the affectivity of the probabilistic design methodology was presented. The Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS simulation method for the analysis of the compressor foundation reliability was used on program ANSYS. The 200 simulations for five load cases were calculated in the real time on PC. The probabilistic analysis gives us more complex information about the soil-foundation-machine interaction as the deterministic analysis.
Global Sensitivity Analysis for multivariate output using Polynomial Chaos Expansion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garcia-Cabrejo, Oscar; Valocchi, Albert
2014-01-01
Many mathematical and computational models used in engineering produce multivariate output that shows some degree of correlation. However, conventional approaches to Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) assume that the output variable is scalar. These approaches are applied on each output variable leading to a large number of sensitivity indices that shows a high degree of redundancy making the interpretation of the results difficult. Two approaches have been proposed for GSA in the case of multivariate output: output decomposition approach [9] and covariance decomposition approach [14] but they are computationally intensive for most practical problems. In this paper, Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is used for an efficient GSA with multivariate output. The results indicate that PCE allows efficient estimation of the covariance matrix and GSA on the coefficients in the approach defined by Campbell et al. [9], and the development of analytical expressions for the multivariate sensitivity indices defined by Gamboa et al. [14]. - Highlights: • PCE increases computational efficiency in 2 approaches of GSA of multivariate output. • Efficient estimation of covariance matrix of output from coefficients of PCE. • Efficient GSA on coefficients of orthogonal decomposition of the output using PCE. • Analytical expressions of multivariate sensitivity indices from coefficients of PCE
Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of the WAVEWATCH III Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Beng-Chun Lee
2009-01-01
Full Text Available The parameters in numerical wave models need to be calibrated be fore a model can be applied to a specific region. In this study, we selected the 8 most important parameters from the source term of the WAVEWATCH III model and subjected them to sensitivity analysis to evaluate the sensitivity of the WAVEWATCH III model to the selected parameters to determine how many of these parameters should be considered for further discussion, and to justify the significance priority of each parameter. After ranking each parameter by sensitivity and assessing their cumulative impact, we adopted the ARS method to search for the optimal values of those parameters to which the WAVEWATCH III model is most sensitive by comparing modeling results with ob served data at two data buoys off the coast of north eastern Taiwan; the goal being to find optimal parameter values for improved modeling of wave development. The procedure adopting optimal parameters in wave simulations did improve the accuracy of the WAVEWATCH III model in comparison to default runs based on field observations at two buoys.
ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.
1987-01-01
A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modeling and model validation studies to avoid over modeling, in site characterization planning to avoid over collection of data, and in performance assessments to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed. 7 references, 2 figures
ADGEN: a system for automated sensitivity analysis of predictive models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.; Horwedel, J.E.; Oblow, E.M.; Lucius, J.L.
1986-09-01
A system that can automatically enhance computer codes with a sensitivity calculation capability is presented. With this new system, named ADGEN, rapid and cost-effective calculation of sensitivities can be performed in any FORTRAN code for all input data or parameters. The resulting sensitivities can be used in performance assessment studies related to licensing or interactions with the public to systematically and quantitatively prove the relative importance of each of the system parameters in calculating the final performance results. A general procedure calling for the systematic use of sensitivities in assessment studies is presented. The procedure can be used in modelling and model validation studies to avoid ''over modelling,'' in site characterization planning to avoid ''over collection of data,'' and in performance assessment to determine the uncertainties on the final calculated results. The added capability to formally perform the inverse problem, i.e., to determine the input data or parameters on which to focus additional research or analysis effort in order to improve the uncertainty of the final results, is also discussed
Techno-economic analysis of biofuel production considering logistic configurations.
Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping
2016-04-01
In the study, a techno-economic analysis method considering logistic configurations is proposed. The economic feasibility of a low temperature biomass gasification pathway and an integrated pathway with fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification are evaluated and compared with the proposed method in Iowa. The results show that both pathways are profitable, biomass gasification pathway could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10.00% by building a single biorefinery and integrated bio-oil gasification pathway could achieve an IRR of 3.32% by applying decentralized supply chain structure. A Monte-Carlo simulation considering interactions among parameters is also proposed and conducted, which indicates that both pathways are at high risk currently. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Economical analysis of combined fuel cell generators and absorption chillers
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Morsy El-Gohary
2013-06-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a co-generation system based on combined heat and power for commercial units. For installation of a co-generation system, certain estimates for this site should be performed through making assessments of electrical loads, domestic water, and thermal demand. This includes domestic hot water, selection of the type of power generator, fuel cell, and the type of air conditioning system, and absorption chillers. As a matter of fact, the co-generation system has demonstrated good results for both major aspects, economic and environmental. From the environmental point of view, this can be considered as an ideal solution for problems concerned with the usage of Chlorofluoro carbons. On the other hand, from the economic point of view, the cost analysis has revealed that the proposed system saves 4% of total cost through using the co-generation system.
Economic Analysis on Key Challenges for Sustainable Aquaculture Development
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gedefaw Abate, Tenaw
challenges that could obstruct its sustainable development, such as a lack of suitable feed, which includes fishmeal, fish oil and live feed, and negative environmental externalities. If the aquaculture industry is to reach its full potential, it must be both environmentally and economically sustainable...... environmental externalities. A sustainable supply of high-quality live feeds at reasonable prices is absolutely essential for aquaculture hatcheries because many commercially produced high-value marine fish larval species, such as flounder, grouper, halibut, tuna and turbot, require live feed for their early...... developmental stage. The key challenge in this regard is that the conventional used live feed items, Artemia and rotifers, are nutritionally deficient. Thus, the first main purpose of the thesis is carrying out an economic analysis of the feasibility of commercial production and the use of an alternative live...
Economic Growth and Budget Constraints: EU Countries Panel Data Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zimčík Petr
2016-06-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to identify the impacts of different taxes and expenditures on economic growth. The research is focused on 20 selected European Union Member States. These countries are equally divided into four groups based on their average tax burden as presented in the World Tax Index. A comparison of fiscal attributes among these groups is important for the analysis. Annual government finance data from the years 1995 to 2012 are used for an empirical study. The indicators observed are real GDP change, the composition and volume of total government expenditures, tax quotas of individual taxes and total budget balance. These indicators are used within an endogenous growth model together with capital stock and an approximation of human capital. A panel regression with fixed effects is used as an analytic tool. The main results are that an increase in social contributions, property, production and personal income tax quotas has an adverse effect on economic growth.
Analysis of remote working practice AND CALCULATION OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. S. Ermakov
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The article is devoted to description of working from home practice at Allianz Insurance UK и Ernst & Young, UK & Ireland. It fulfilled the analysis of the best practices in the use of new forms of social and labor relations - remote work. The characteristics of using types of distance work, the policy of implementation and realization of such work in the company, the criteria for the transfer of employees to work remotely, the possibility of a flexible approach to workflow are given. The calculation of the economic efficiency of technology telecommuting at an aviation company of the Russian Federation is done. The method of calculating the cost-effectiveness based on several factors, such as costs for the organization and content of the workplace, change in labor productivity and others, was proposed by the authors. The calculation of economic efficiency by using the number of working hours, the impact on capital inputs and the impact on quit rates is considered.
Sensitivity analysis: Interaction of DOE SNF and packaging materials
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Anderson, P.A.; Kirkham, R.J.; Shaber, E.L.
1999-01-01
A sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the technical issues pertaining to possible destructive interactions between spent nuclear fuels (SNFs) and the stainless steel canisters. When issues are identified through such an analysis, they provide the technical basis for answering what if questions and, if needed, for conducting additional analyses, testing, or other efforts to resolve them in order to base the licensing on solid technical grounds. The analysis reported herein systematically assessed the chemical and physical properties and the potential interactions of the materials that comprise typical US Department of Energy (DOE) SNFs and the stainless steel canisters in which they will be stored, transported, and placed in a geologic repository for final disposition. The primary focus in each step of the analysis was to identify any possible phenomena that could potentially compromise the structural integrity of the canisters and to assess their thermodynamic feasibility
Linear regression and sensitivity analysis in nuclear reactor design
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kumar, Akansha; Tsvetkov, Pavel V.; McClarren, Ryan G.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Presented a benchmark for the applicability of linear regression to complex systems. • Applied linear regression to a nuclear reactor power system. • Performed neutronics, thermal–hydraulics, and energy conversion using Brayton’s cycle for the design of a GCFBR. • Performed detailed sensitivity analysis to a set of parameters in a nuclear reactor power system. • Modeled and developed reactor design using MCNP, regression using R, and thermal–hydraulics in Java. - Abstract: The paper presents a general strategy applicable for sensitivity analysis (SA), and uncertainity quantification analysis (UA) of parameters related to a nuclear reactor design. This work also validates the use of linear regression (LR) for predictive analysis in a nuclear reactor design. The analysis helps to determine the parameters on which a LR model can be fit for predictive analysis. For those parameters, a regression surface is created based on trial data and predictions are made using this surface. A general strategy of SA to determine and identify the influential parameters those affect the operation of the reactor is mentioned. Identification of design parameters and validation of linearity assumption for the application of LR of reactor design based on a set of tests is performed. The testing methods used to determine the behavior of the parameters can be used as a general strategy for UA, and SA of nuclear reactor models, and thermal hydraulics calculations. A design of a gas cooled fast breeder reactor (GCFBR), with thermal–hydraulics, and energy transfer has been used for the demonstration of this method. MCNP6 is used to simulate the GCFBR design, and perform the necessary criticality calculations. Java is used to build and run input samples, and to extract data from the output files of MCNP6, and R is used to perform regression analysis and other multivariate variance, and analysis of the collinearity of data
Thermo-economic analysis of Shiraz solar thermal power plant
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yaghoubi, M. [Academy of Science, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mokhtari, A.; Hesami, R. [Shiraz Univ., Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). School of Engineering
2007-07-01
The Shiraz solar thermal power plant in Iran has 48 parabolic trough collectors (PTCs) which are used to heat the working oil. There is potential to significantly increase the performance and reduce the cost of PTC solar thermal electric technologies. Conventional energy analysis based on the first law of thermodynamics does qualitatively assess the various losses occurring in the components. Therefore, exergy analysis, based on the second law of thermodynamics, can be applied to better assess various losses quantitatively as well as qualitatively. This paper presented a newly developed exergy-economic model for the Shiraz solar thermal power plant. The objective was to find the minimum exergetic production cost (EPC), based on the second law of thermodynamics. The application of exergy-economic analysis includes the evaluation of utility supply costs for production plants, and the energy costs for process operations. The purpose of the analysis was to minimize the total operating costs of the solar thermal power plant by assuming a fixed rate of electricity production and process steam. 21 refs., 3 tabs., 8 figs.
Proposed standby gasoline rationing plan. Economic and regulatory analysis draft
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1978-06-01
This economic and regulatory analysis meets the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which calls for an evaluation of the potential economic impacts of the gasoline rationing contingency plan. In addition, this analysis is intended to satisfy the requirements of the President's Executive Order No. 12044 of March 23, 1978, regarding government regulations, and provides an inflationary impact statement for the proposed rationing plan. To perform the analysis of rationing program impacts on the total national economy, three separate projections were required. First, a projection is made of the ''normal'' U.S. economy for a future period--the last quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981 in this analysis. Second, a projection is made of the impacts which a petroleum supply interruption would have on the U.S. economy during this future period, assuming that DOE's standby allocation and price control regulations were implemented for crude oil and products. Third, and most significant, an estimate is made of the incremental impacts of the gasoline rationing program on this already-perturbed future U.S. economy.
Mixed kernel function support vector regression for global sensitivity analysis
Cheng, Kai; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wei, Yuhao; Shi, Yan; Zhou, Yicheng
2017-11-01
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) plays an important role in exploring the respective effects of input variables on an assigned output response. Amongst the wide sensitivity analyses in literature, the Sobol indices have attracted much attention since they can provide accurate information for most models. In this paper, a mixed kernel function (MKF) based support vector regression (SVR) model is employed to evaluate the Sobol indices at low computational cost. By the proposed derivation, the estimation of the Sobol indices can be obtained by post-processing the coefficients of the SVR meta-model. The MKF is constituted by the orthogonal polynomials kernel function and Gaussian radial basis kernel function, thus the MKF possesses both the global characteristic advantage of the polynomials kernel function and the local characteristic advantage of the Gaussian radial basis kernel function. The proposed approach is suitable for high-dimensional and non-linear problems. Performance of the proposed approach is validated by various analytical functions and compared with the popular polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). Results demonstrate that the proposed approach is an efficient method for global sensitivity analysis.
Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.
Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M
2014-12-01
Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.
Preoperative localization strategies for primary hyperparathyroidism: an economic analysis.
Lubitz, Carrie C; Stephen, Antonia E; Hodin, Richard A; Pandharipande, Pari
2012-12-01
Strategies for localizing parathyroid pathology preoperatively vary in cost and accuracy. Our purpose was to compute and compare comprehensive costs associated with common localization strategies. A decision-analytic model was developed to evaluate comprehensive, short-term costs of parathyroid localization strategies for patients with primary hyperparathyroidism. Eight strategies were compared. Probabilities of accurate localization were extracted from the literature, and costs associated with each strategy were based on 2011 Medicare reimbursement schedules. Differential cost considerations included outpatient versus inpatient surgeries, operative time, and costs of imaging. Sensitivity analyses were performed to determine effects of variability in key model parameters upon model results. Ultrasound (US) followed by 4D-CT was the least expensive strategy ($5,901), followed by US alone ($6,028), and 4D-CT alone ($6,110). Strategies including sestamibi (SM) were more expensive, with associated expenditures of up to $6,329 for contemporaneous US and SM. Four-gland, bilateral neck exploration (BNE) was the most expensive strategy ($6,824). Differences in cost were dependent upon differences in the sensitivity of each strategy for detecting single-gland disease, which determined the proportion of patients able to undergo outpatient minimally invasive parathyroidectomy. In sensitivity analysis, US alone was preferred over US followed by 4D-CT only when both the sensitivity of US alone for detecting an adenoma was ≥ 94 %, and the sensitivity of 4D-CT following negative US was ≤ 39 %. 4D-CT alone was the least costly strategy when US sensitivity was ≤ 31 %. Among commonly used strategies for preoperative localization of parathyroid pathology, US followed by selective 4D-CT is the least expensive.
Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Saltelli, Andrea; Ratto, Marco; Tarantola, Stefano; Campolongo, Francesca
2006-01-01
Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA
Sensitivity analysis practices: Strategies for model-based inference
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Saltelli, Andrea [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (Vatican City State, Holy See,) (Italy)]. E-mail: andrea.saltelli@jrc.it; Ratto, Marco [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Tarantola, Stefano [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy); Campolongo, Francesca [Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 361, 21020 Ispra (VA) (Italy)
2006-10-15
Fourteen years after Science's review of sensitivity analysis (SA) methods in 1989 (System analysis at molecular scale, by H. Rabitz) we search Science Online to identify and then review all recent articles having 'sensitivity analysis' as a keyword. In spite of the considerable developments which have taken place in this discipline, of the good practices which have emerged, and of existing guidelines for SA issued on both sides of the Atlantic, we could not find in our review other than very primitive SA tools, based on 'one-factor-at-a-time' (OAT) approaches. In the context of model corroboration or falsification, we demonstrate that this use of OAT methods is illicit and unjustified, unless the model under analysis is proved to be linear. We show that available good practices, such as variance based measures and others, are able to overcome OAT shortcomings and easy to implement. These methods also allow the concept of factors importance to be defined rigorously, thus making the factors importance ranking univocal. We analyse the requirements of SA in the context of modelling, and present best available practices on the basis of an elementary model. We also point the reader to available recipes for a rigorous SA.
Regional and parametric sensitivity analysis of Sobol' indices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wei, Pengfei; Lu, Zhenzhou; Song, Jingwen
2015-01-01
Nowadays, utilizing the Monte Carlo estimators for variance-based sensitivity analysis has gained sufficient popularity in many research fields. These estimators are usually based on n+2 sample matrices well designed for computing both the main and total effect indices, where n is the input dimension. The aim of this paper is to use such n+2 sample matrices to investigate how the main and total effect indices change when the uncertainty of the model inputs are reduced. For this purpose, the regional main and total effect functions are defined for measuring the changes on the main and total effect indices when the distribution range of one input is reduced, and the parametric main and total effect functions are introduced to quantify the residual main and total effect indices due to the reduced variance of one input. Monte Carlo estimators are derived for all the developed sensitivity concepts based on the n+2 samples matrices originally used for computing the main and total effect indices, thus no extra computational cost is introduced. The Ishigami function, a nonlinear model and a planar ten-bar structure are utilized for illustrating the developed sensitivity concepts, and for demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of the derived Monte Carlo estimators. - Highlights: • The regional main and total effect functions are developed. • The parametric main and total effect functions are introduced. • The proposed sensitivity functions are all generalizations of Sobol' indices. • The Monte Carlo estimators are derived for the four sensitivity functions. • The computational cost of the estimators is the same as that of Sobol' indices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weiwei Mo
2018-02-01
Full Text Available Different economic development strategies may result in varied socioeconomic and environmental synergies or tradeoffs, suggesting an opportunity for environmentally conscious planning. To understand such synergies or tradeoffs, a dynamic environmental life cycle assessment was conducted for eleven groups of New Hampshire industries. Historical state level Gross Domestic Product (GDP-by-industry data was combined with economic input-output analysis to calculate the direct and life cycle energy use, freshwater use, greenhouse gas emissions, and eutrophication potential of each industry on a yearly basis for the period of 1997–2012. The future development of agriculture, traditional manufacturing, high tech, and tourism industries were investigated based on government projections. Total life cycle impacts of the 11 industries were found to represent around three to seven times those of direct impacts, indicating the significance of the supply chain impacts. Traditional manufacturing has the highest life cycle impacts even though it contributes to less than 10% of the state GDP. Future development of high tech was found to be the best strategy to increase GDP while imposing the least additional environmental impacts. Tourism presents relatively high impacts in terms of freshwater use and eutrophication potential, and a change in recreational style might be able to reduce its impacts.