Indirect Evolution Versus Strategic Delegation : A Comparison of Two Approaches to Explaining Economic Institutions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dufwenberg, M.; Güth, W.

1997-01-01

The two major methods of explaining economic institutions, namely by strategic choices or by (indirect) evolution, are compared for the case of a homogenous quadratic duopoly market. Sellers either can provide incentives for their agents to care for sales (amounts) or evolve as sellers who care for

Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

2014-12-01

We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

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L. A. Zaporozhtseva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

Meta-analysis of institutional-economic factors explaining the environmental performance of payments for watershed services

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, R.; Tesfaye, A.; Pauw, W.P.

2011-01-01

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are a relatively new economic policy instrument, and the factors that drive and explain their environmental performance are poorly understood. Here a meta-analysis of causal relationships between the institutional design and environmental performance of 47

Modeling recent economic debates

Science.gov (United States)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

Economic model of the US uranium market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, A.D.

1984-01-01

An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

1980-09-01

This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

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Wadim Strielkowski

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

Macro-economic environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, M.

1993-01-01

In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

Toward a Unified Europe? Explaining Cultural Differences by Economic Development, Cultural Heritage and Historical Shocks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beugelsdijk, S.; van Schaik, A.B.T.M.

2002-01-01

Economic development is linked with systematic changes in basic values, but cultural change is path dependent.This is known as Inglehart's thesis.In this paper we build on his thesis and try to explain value differences across European regions.This is relevant as it fits in the ongoing discussion of

Is the "Glasgow effect" of cigarette smoking explained by socio-economic status?: A multilevel analysis

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Leyland Alastair H

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Glasgow area has elevated levels of deprivation and is known for its poor health and associated negative health-related behaviours, which are socially patterned. Of interest is whether high smoking rates are explained by the area's socio-economic profile. Methods Data on age, sex, current/previous smoking status, area deprivation, social class, education, economic activity, postcode sector, and health board region were available from Scottish Health Surveys conducted in 1995, 1998 and 2003. Multilevel logistic regression models were applied by sex, unadjusted and adjusted for age, survey year, and socio-economic factors, accounting for geographical hierarchy and missing data. Results Compared with the rest of Scotland, men living in Greater Glasgow were 30% and women 43% more likely to smoke [odds ratio (OR = 1.30, (95% CI = 1.08–1.56 and (OR = 1.43, CI = 1.22–1.68, respectively] before adjustment. In adjusted results, the association between living in Greater Glasgow and current smoking was attenuated [OR = 0.92, CI = 0.78–1.09 for men, and OR = 1.08, CI = 0.94–1.23 for women; results based on multiply imputed data to account for missing values remained borderline significant for women]. Accounting for individuals who had been told to give up smoking by a medical person/excluding ex-smokers did not alter results. Conclusion High levels of smoking in Greater Glasgow were attributable to its poorer socio-economic position and the strong social patterning of smoking. Tackling Glasgow's, and indeed Scotland's, poor health must involve policies to alleviate problems associated with poverty.

An economic theory-based explanatory model of agricultural land-use patterns: The Netherlands as a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Diogo, V.; Koomen, E.; Kuhlman, T.

2015-01-01

An economic theory-based land-use modelling framework is presented aiming to explain the causal link between economic decisions and resulting spatial patterns of agricultural land use. The framework assumes that farmers pursue utility maximisation in agricultural production systems, while

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote.

Science.gov (United States)

Mutz, Diana C

2018-05-08

This study evaluates evidence pertaining to popular narratives explaining the American public's support for Donald J. Trump in the 2016 presidential election. First, using unique representative probability samples of the American public, tracking the same individuals from 2012 to 2016, I examine the "left behind" thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes). Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America's global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past. Results do not support an interpretation of the election based on pocketbook economic concerns. Instead, the shorter relative distance of people's own views from the Republican candidate on trade and China corresponded to greater mass support for Trump in 2016 relative to Mitt Romney in 2012. Candidate preferences in 2016 reflected increasing anxiety among high-status groups rather than complaints about past treatment among low-status groups. Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

A model for diagnosing and explaining multiple disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Jamieson, P W

1991-08-01

The ability to diagnose multiple interacting disorders and explain them in a coherent causal framework has only partially been achieved in medical expert systems. This paper proposes a causal model for diagnosing and explaining multiple disorders whose key elements are: physician-directed hypotheses generation, object-oriented knowledge representation, and novel explanation heuristics. The heuristics modify and link the explanations to make the physician aware of diagnostic complexities. A computer program incorporating the model currently is in use for diagnosing peripheral nerve and muscle disorders. The program successfully diagnoses and explains interactions between diseases in terms of underlying pathophysiologic concepts. The model offers a new architecture for medical domains where reasoning from first principles is difficult but explanation of disease interactions is crucial for the system's operation.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Does parents' economic, cultural, and social capital explain the social class effect on educational attainment in the Scandinavian mobility regime?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier

2007-01-01

for the statistical analysis. Our results are, first, that controlling for the three types of capital we explain a considerable part of the social class effect on educational attainment, and, second, that cultural and social capital are the key predictors of educational attainment.......This paper analyzes how much of the effect of social class on children’s choice of secondary education in Denmark can be decomposed into the influence of parental economic, cultural, and social capital. Following mobility regime theory, we propose that in the Scandinavian mobility regime to which...... Denmark belongs, the effect of social class on educational attainment should be explained primarily by non-economic forms of capital. We use an extremely rich Danish longitudinal survey to construct empirical measures of economic, cultural, and social capital and an extended random effect framework...

Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

Science.gov (United States)

Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

2010-12-01

Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Kit N

2010-05-01

To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

Students' Development and Use of Models to Explain Electrostatic Interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Mayer, Kristin Elizabeth

The National Research Council (2012) recently published A Framework for K-12 Science Education that describes a vision for science classrooms where students engage in three dimensions--scientific and engineering practices, crosscutting concepts, and disciplinary core ideas--to explain phenomena or observations they can make about the universe around them. This vision of science instruction is a significant shift from current classroom instruction. This dissertation provides detailed examples of how students developed and used models to build causal explanations of phenomena. I co-taught classes that focused on having students develop and revise models of electric fields and atomic structure using a curriculum that was designed to align with the three-dimensional vision of learning. I developed case studies of eleven students from these classes. I analyzed the students' responses and interviewed the students throughout the school year. By comparing and contrasting the analysis across the analysis of students' interviews, I identified four themes: 1) students could apply their ideas to explain novel and abstract phenomena; 2) students struggled to connect changes in their atomic models to evidence, but ended up with dynamic models of atomic structure that they could apply to explain phenomena; 3) students developed models of atomic structure that they applied to explain phenomena, but they did not use models of electric fields in this way; and 4) too much focus on details interfered with students' ability to apply their models to explain new phenomena. This dissertation highlights the importance of focusing on phenomena in classrooms that aim at aligning with three-dimensional learning. Students struggled to focus on specific content and apply their ideas to explain phenomena at the same time. In order to apply ideas to new context, students had to shift their focus from recalling ideas to applying the ideas they do have. A focus on phenomena allowed students to show

ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria G. MACOVEI

2008-06-01

Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

Explaining Choice and Share of Category Requirements of Biologic Meat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.C. Verhoef (Peter); K. Vlagsma-Brangule (Kristine)

2003-01-01

textabstractIn this paper we examine factors determining choice and consumption of biologic or organic meat. In our model explaining choice and share of category requirements, we consider economic/marketing variables (quality, price, and distribution), emotions (fear, empathy, andguilt), social

An Attempt to Assess the Quantitative Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth and Economic Development

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Próchniak Mariusz

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study aims at assessing to what extent institutional environment is responsible for worldwide differences in economic growth and economic development. To answer this question, we use an innovative approach based on a new concept of the institutions-augmented Solow model which is then estimated empirically using regression equations. The analysis covers 180 countries during the 1993-2012 period. The empirical analysis confirms a large positive impact of the quality of institutional environment on the level of economic development. The positive link has been evidenced for all five institutional indicators: two indices of economic freedom (Heritage Foundation and Fraser Institute, the governance indicator (World Bank, the democracy index (Freedom House, and the EBRD transition indicator for post-socialist countries. Differences in physical capital, human capital, and institutional environment explain about 70-75% of the worldwide differences in economic development. The institutions-augmented Solow model, however, performs slightly poorer in explaining differences in the rates of economic growth: only one institutional variable (index of economic freedom has a statistically significant impact on economic growth. In terms of originality, this paper extends the theoretical analysis of the Solow model by including institutions, on the one hand, and shows a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of various institutional indicators on both the level of development and the pace of economic growth, on the other. The results bring important policy implications.

Japanese migration in contemporary Japan: economic segmentation and interprefectural migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Fukurai, H

1991-01-01

This paper examines the economic segmentation model in explaining 1985-86 Japanese interregional migration. The analysis takes advantage of statistical graphic techniques to illustrate the following substantive issues of interregional migration: (1) to examine whether economic segmentation significantly influences Japanese regional migration and (2) to explain socioeconomic characteristics of prefectures for both in- and out-migration. Analytic techniques include a latent structural equation (LISREL) methodology and statistical residual mapping. The residual dispersion patterns, for instance, suggest the extent to which socioeconomic and geopolitical variables explain migration differences by showing unique clusters of unexplained residuals. The analysis further points out that extraneous factors such as high residential land values, significant commuting populations, and regional-specific cultures and traditions need to be incorporated in the economic segmentation model in order to assess the extent of the model's reliability in explaining the pattern of interprefectural migration.

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandrik, A.M.

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

Deep supervised, but not unsupervised, models may explain IT cortical representation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyed-Mahdi Khaligh-Razavi

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Inferior temporal (IT cortex in human and nonhuman primates serves visual object recognition. Computational object-vision models, although continually improving, do not yet reach human performance. It is unclear to what extent the internal representations of computational models can explain the IT representation. Here we investigate a wide range of computational model representations (37 in total, testing their categorization performance and their ability to account for the IT representational geometry. The models include well-known neuroscientific object-recognition models (e.g. HMAX, VisNet along with several models from computer vision (e.g. SIFT, GIST, self-similarity features, and a deep convolutional neural network. We compared the representational dissimilarity matrices (RDMs of the model representations with the RDMs obtained from human IT (measured with fMRI and monkey IT (measured with cell recording for the same set of stimuli (not used in training the models. Better performing models were more similar to IT in that they showed greater clustering of representational patterns by category. In addition, better performing models also more strongly resembled IT in terms of their within-category representational dissimilarities. Representational geometries were significantly correlated between IT and many of the models. However, the categorical clustering observed in IT was largely unexplained by the unsupervised models. The deep convolutional network, which was trained by supervision with over a million category-labeled images, reached the highest categorization performance and also best explained IT, although it did not fully explain the IT data. Combining the features of this model with appropriate weights and adding linear combinations that maximize the margin between animate and inanimate objects and between faces and other objects yielded a representation that fully explained our IT data. Overall, our results suggest that explaining

On the explaining-away phenomenon in multivariate latent variable models.

Science.gov (United States)

van Rijn, Peter; Rijmen, Frank

2015-02-01

Many probabilistic models for psychological and educational measurements contain latent variables. Well-known examples are factor analysis, item response theory, and latent class model families. We discuss what is referred to as the 'explaining-away' phenomenon in the context of such latent variable models. This phenomenon can occur when multiple latent variables are related to the same observed variable, and can elicit seemingly counterintuitive conditional dependencies between latent variables given observed variables. We illustrate the implications of explaining away for a number of well-known latent variable models by using both theoretical and real data examples. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Explaining the Evolution of Poverty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arndt, Channing; Hussain, Azhar; Jones, Edward Samuel

2012-01-01

We provide a comprehensive approach for analyzing the evolution of poverty using Mozambique as a case study. Bringing together data from disparate sources, we develop a novel “back-casting” framework that links a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to a micro-simulation poverty module....... This framework provides a new approach to explaining and decomposing the evolution of poverty, as well as to examining rigorously the coherence between poverty, economic growth, and inequality outcomes. Finally, various simple but useful and rarely-applied approaches to considering regional changes in poverty...

New economic geography in Germany: testing the Helpman-Hanson model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brakman, S.; Schramm, M.; Garretsen, Harry

2001-01-01

In this paper we find evidence that the new economic geography approach is able to describeand explain the spatial characteristics of an economy, in our case the German economy. UsingGerman district data we estimate the structural parameters of a new economic geographymodel as developed by Helpman

USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia Madalina Orac

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

Economic models for battery energy storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

1990-01-01

While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

SOME THEORETICAL MODELS EXPLAINING ADVERTISING EFFECTS

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Vasilica Magdalena SOMEŞFĂLEAN

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Persuade clients is still the main focus of the companies, using a set of methods and techniques designed to influence their behavior, in order to obtain better results (profits over a longer period of time. Since the late nineteenth - early twentieth century, the american E.St.Elmo Lewis, considered a pioneer in advertising and sales, developed the first theory, AIDA model, later used by marketers and advertisers to develop a marketing communications strategy. Later studies have developed other models that are the main subject of this research, which explains how and why persuasive communication works, to understand why some approaches are effective and others are not.

ECONOMIC gROWTH, GLOBALIZATION AND TRADE

OpenAIRE

Nuno Carlos LEITÃO

2012-01-01

The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between economic growth, globalization and trade. The manuscript uses the assumptions of the economic growth exogenous and endogenous models. It introduces new proxies for explain the economic growth as in intra-industry trade, foreign direct investment and globalization index. The results indicate that economic growth is a dynamic process. The intra-industry has a positive impact on economic growth. This paper confirms relevan...

Models of Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

2013-01-01

The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

Do expert ratings or economic models explain champagne prices?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar

2008-01-01

Champagne is bought with low frequency and many consumers most likely do not have or seek full information on the quality of champagne. Some consumers may rely on the reputation of particular brands, e.g. "Les Grandes Marques", some consumers choose to gain information from sensory ratings...... of champagne. The aim of this paper is to analyse the champagne prices on the Scandinavian markets by applying a hedonic price function in a comparative framework with minimal models using sensory ratings....

In a Trap of Neoclassical Economics and Marxism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir M. Yefimov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper is a reaction to the book "Economic ideas and the world economic environment: a retrospective of interaction". The idea of writing a book with this title is just excellent. Traditional consideration of the development of economic ideas as exclusively intellectual history cannot give understanding of their evolution, since this evolution is influenced (often critically by a large number of external "factors". Why did I take the word "factors" in quotation marks? It is because this term is not very suitable to explain the evolution of economic ideas. It orients us to the causal model explaining this evolution, which for this purpose is totally inadequate. What kind of model, instead of causal, must be used here? In order to answer this question it is necessary to keep in mind that economic ideas are generated, developed and transmitted by people, immersed in certain social relations. These social relations are governed by certain rules, so in order to understand the evolution of economic ideas it is necessary to identify these rules. These rules are not confined to the desire of economists to understand economic reality. As it is shown by many historical studies of the real development of the economic discipline, the hypothesis, that social relations within the community of economists are motivated solely by the desire for a more accurate reflection of economic reality is fundamentally wrong. The author of the book is based on the hypothesis that "the theory is... more or less truthful reflection of contemporary to it conditions". The main, I would say fatal, mistake of the author of the book under consideration here is to use a causal model explaining the evolution of economic ideas, and selection of "technological factor" as a decisive factor acting in the framework of this model.

Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

2000-01-01

Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

EUROPEAN SOCIAL MODEL.COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OR ECONOMIC HANDICAP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iovitu Mariana

2010-07-01

Full Text Available “Corporative social responsibility” (CSR represents equally a very actual debate, but also an appraisal criteria of the dynamic of eco-social integration quality process at European level. Especially that the protection need is demanded by the current economic crisis. This concept is meant to combine the position, attitude and behaviour of the trade-unions with the interests of employer’s organisations in search of possible influential mechanisms of the competitive advantage at European level. Due to the current economic crisis, the implications on the labour force market are causing an explainable anxiety. The attention of the decision takers is oriented towards joining the objectives “social well being with economic well being” in view of an expected economic come back. This approach proves a significant change at the level of economic and social policies within the European Union.

A Simple Model of Entrepreneurship for Principles of Economics Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Gunter, Frank R.

2012-01-01

The critical roles of entrepreneurs in creating, operating, and destroying markets, as well as their importance in driving long-term economic growth are still generally either absent from principles of economics texts or relegated to later chapters. The primary difficulties in explaining entrepreneurship at the principles level are the lack of a…

Modeling knowledge networks in economic geography: a discussion of four methods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broekel, Tom; Balland, Pierre-Alexandre; Burger, Martijn; van Oort, Frank

2014-01-01

The importance of network structures for the transmission of knowledge and the diffusion of technological change has been recently emphasized in economic geography. Since network structures drive the innovative and economic performance of actors in regional contexts, it is crucial to explain

On the size distribution of cities: an economic interpretation of the Pareto coefficient.

Science.gov (United States)

Suh, S H

1987-01-01

"Both the hierarchy and the stochastic models of size distribution of cities are analyzed in order to explain the Pareto coefficient by economic variables. In hierarchy models, it is found that the rate of variation in the productivity of cities and that in the probability of emergence of cities can explain the Pareto coefficient. In stochastic models, the productivity of cities is found to explain the Pareto coefficient. New city-size distribution functions, in which the Pareto coefficient is decomposed by economic variables, are estimated." excerpt

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A.M. Gandrik

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

Explaining formation of Astronomical Jets using Dynamic Universe Model

Science.gov (United States)

Naga Parameswara Gupta, Satyavarapu

2016-07-01

Astronomical jets are observed from the centres of many Galaxies including our own Milkyway. The formation of such jet is explained using SITA simulations of Dynamic Universe Model. For this purpose the path traced by a test neutron is calculated and depicted using a set up of one densemass of the mass equivalent to mass of Galaxy center, 90 stars with similar masses of stars near Galaxy center, mass equivalents of 23 Globular Cluster groups, 16 Milkyway parts, Andromeda and Triangulum Galaxies at appropriate distances. Five different kinds of theoretical simulations gave positive results The path travelled by this test neutron was found to be an astronomical jet emerging from Galaxy center. This is another result from Dynamic Universe Model. It solves new problems like a. Variable Mass Rocket Trajectory Problem b. Explaining Very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations c. Astronomical jets observed from Milkyway Center d. Prediction of Blue shifted Galaxies e. Explaining Pioneer Anomaly f. Prediction of New Horizons satellite trajectory etc. Dynamic Universe Model never reduces to General relativity on any condition. It uses a different type of mathematics based on Newtonian physics. This mathematics used here is simple and straightforward. As there are no differential equations present in Dynamic Universe Model, the set of equations give single solution in x y z Cartesian coordinates for every point mass for every time step

Analyzing Economic Attainment Patterns of Foreign Born Latin American Male Immigrants to The United States: an Example Using Hierarchical Linear Modeling

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David J. Gotcher

2001-09-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the research which examines and endeavors to account for variation in the economic attainments of immigrants to the United States from Latin America, through the use of Hierarchical Linear Modeling. When analyzing this variation, researchers typically choose between two competing explanations. Human capital theory contends that variation in economic attainment is a product of different characteristics of individuals. Social capital theory contends that variation in economic attainment is a product of differences in characteristics of the societies from which the workers come. The author's central thesis is that we need not choose between human and social capital theories, that we can rely on both theoretical approaches, that it is an empirical and not a theoretical question how much variation can be explained by one set of factors versus the other. The real problem then is to build an appropriate methodology that allows us to partition the variation in economic attainments, identifying how much is explained by individual and how much by group characteristics. Using a multi-level modeling technique, this research presents such a methodology.

Homo Oeconomicus and Behavioral Economics

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Justyna Brzezicka

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in behavioral trends in both economic theory and practical applications. As a science with vast potential for explaining complex market behaviors, behavioral economics is drifting away from the classical model of homo oeconomicus deployed by mainstream economics. This paper discusses the significance and role of the homo oeconomicus model in light of behavioral economics. It analyzes the direction of changes affecting homo oeconomicus, examines the definition of anomalies within the context of behavioral economics and discusses the anomalous status of homo oeconomicus. The paper proposes a hypothesis that the attitude characterizing homo oeconomicus is unique and incidental. The presented interdisciplinary analysis relies on economics, behavioral economics, economic psychology, behavioral finance and the methodology of science to discuss the homo oeconomicus model. The paper reviews change trends in economics, which are largely propelled by advancements in behavioral economics. The key methodological tools deployed in this paper are theoretical analysis and a compilation of extensive research findings. The results were used to formulate new theories advocating the development of a modern approach to the homo oeconomicus model, recognizing its significance and the growing importance of behavioral economics.

A statistical mechanical model of economics

Science.gov (United States)

Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

Can model-free reinforcement learning explain deontological moral judgments?

Science.gov (United States)

Ayars, Alisabeth

2016-05-01

Dual-systems frameworks propose that moral judgments are derived from both an immediate emotional response, and controlled/rational cognition. Recently Cushman (2013) proposed a new dual-system theory based on model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Model-free learning attaches values to actions based on their history of reward and punishment, and explains some deontological, non-utilitarian judgments. Model-based learning involves the construction of a causal model of the world and allows for far-sighted planning; this form of learning fits well with utilitarian considerations that seek to maximize certain kinds of outcomes. I present three concerns regarding the use of model-free reinforcement learning to explain deontological moral judgment. First, many actions that humans find aversive from model-free learning are not judged to be morally wrong. Moral judgment must require something in addition to model-free learning. Second, there is a dearth of evidence for central predictions of the reinforcement account-e.g., that people with different reinforcement histories will, all else equal, make different moral judgments. Finally, to account for the effect of intention within the framework requires certain assumptions which lack support. These challenges are reasonable foci for future empirical/theoretical work on the model-free/model-based framework. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Need of a New Economic Model

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Alexandru Cătălin POPA

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

Applied economic model development algorithm for electronics company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikhailov I.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to report about received experience in the field of creating the actual methods and algorithms that help to simplify development of applied decision support systems. It reports about an algorithm, which is a result of two years research and have more than one-year practical verification. In a case of testing electronic components, the time of the contract conclusion is crucial point to make the greatest managerial mistake. At this stage, it is difficult to achieve a realistic assessment of time-limit and of wage-fund for future work. The creation of estimating model is possible way to solve this problem. In the article is represented an algorithm for creation of those models. The algorithm is based on example of the analytical model development that serves for amount of work estimation. The paper lists the algorithm’s stages and explains their meanings with participants’ goals. The implementation of the algorithm have made possible twofold acceleration of these models development and fulfilment of management’s requirements. The resulting models have made a significant economic effect. A new set of tasks was identified to be further theoretical study.

Economic communication model set

Science.gov (United States)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

Model confirmation in climate economics

Science.gov (United States)

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

OpenAIRE

Prokhorova, V.

2010-01-01

The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banks, W. F.

1977-07-29

The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

2013-10-01

Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

OpenAIRE

Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

2007-01-01

The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

Measuring the global information society - explaining digital inequality by economic level and education standard

Science.gov (United States)

Ünver, H.

2017-02-01

A main focus of this research paper is to investigate on the explanation of the ‘digital inequality’ or ‘digital divide’ by economic level and education standard of about 150 countries worldwide. Inequality regarding GDP per capita, literacy and the so-called UN Education Index seem to be important factors affecting ICT usage, in particular Internet penetration, mobile phone usage and also mobile Internet services. Empirical methods and (multivariate) regression analysis with linear and non-linear functions are useful methods to measure some crucial factors of a country or culture towards becoming information and knowledge based society. Overall, the study concludes that the convergence regarding ICT usage proceeds worldwide faster than the convergence in terms of economic wealth and education in general. The results based on a large data analysis show that the digital divide is declining over more than a decade between 2000 and 2013, since more people worldwide use mobile phones and the Internet. But a high digital inequality explained to a significant extent by the functional relation between technology penetration rates, education level and average income still exists. Furthermore it supports the actions of countries at UN/G20/OECD level for providing ICT access to all people for a more balanced world in context of sustainable development by postulating that policymakers need to promote comprehensive education worldwide by means of using ICT.

Efficiency of economic development models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana Camelia Iacob

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

Ecological economics of North American integration: the reshaping of the economic landscape in the Santiago river basin

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Salvador Peniche Camps

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Ecological Economics studies social metabolism; that is, the material and energy flow into and out of the economy. Using the ecological economics perspective, we analyse the transformation of the economic landscape of the Santiago river basin, Mexico. We discuss why the appropriation of water resources is one of the most important drivers of North American economic integration. We argue that the theoretical model of neo-extractivism can explain the dynamics of social metabolism behind the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA.

The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Monaco, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukharev Oleg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

Canonical Cortical Circuit Model Explains Rivalry, Intermittent Rivalry, and Rivalry Memory.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shashaank Vattikuti

2016-05-01

Full Text Available It has been shown that the same canonical cortical circuit model with mutual inhibition and a fatigue process can explain perceptual rivalry and other neurophysiological responses to a range of static stimuli. However, it has been proposed that this model cannot explain responses to dynamic inputs such as found in intermittent rivalry and rivalry memory, where maintenance of a percept when the stimulus is absent is required. This challenges the universality of the basic canonical cortical circuit. Here, we show that by including an overlooked realistic small nonspecific background neural activity, the same basic model can reproduce intermittent rivalry and rivalry memory without compromising static rivalry and other cortical phenomena. The background activity induces a mutual-inhibition mechanism for short-term memory, which is robust to noise and where fine-tuning of recurrent excitation or inclusion of sub-threshold currents or synaptic facilitation is unnecessary. We prove existence conditions for the mechanism and show that it can explain experimental results from the quartet apparent motion illusion, which is a prototypical intermittent rivalry stimulus.

Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masoud Kheradmandi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

Development of the financial model for analyses on economic performances of nuclear facilities and examples of its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi; Ueno, Seiichi; Kimura, Shigeru; Yuasa, Tadao.

1988-10-01

On the assumption of the commercialization stage of technologies, the analysis on performances in financial operation based on simulation studies is one of important study subjects in the field of the system analysis and economic assessments of nuclear technologies. However, economic assessments on financial performances of such complex industries as nuclear power based on nuclear fuel cycle industries, or as electric utilities composed of hydro, fossil, nuclear power stations are complicated, and the adoption of conventional financial model is insufficient in the case of nuclear technologies which have such special financial process as decommissioning. We, therefore, develop the computer simulation model that can analyze financial performances of nuclear facilities. In this report, the derivation of equations and outlines of the model are explained. Additionally, examples of hypothetical financial simulation studies on a coal-gasoline plant, nuclear waste industries, and analysis on economic perspectives of small size nuclear reactors for electric utilities are indicated. (author)

Evolutionary-Hierarchical Bases of the Formation of Cluster Model of Innovation Economic Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuliya Vladimirovna Dubrovskaya

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The functioning of a modern economic system is based on the interaction of objects of different hierarchical levels. Thus, the problem of the study of innovation processes taking into account the mutual influence of the activities of these economic actors becomes important. The paper dwells evolutionary basis for the formation of models of innovation development on the basis of micro and macroeconomic analysis. Most of the concepts recognized that despite a big number of diverse models, the coordination of the relations between economic agents is of crucial importance for the successful innovation development. According to the results of the evolutionary-hierarchical analysis, the authors reveal key phases of the development of forms of business cooperation, science and government in the domestic economy. It has become the starting point of the conception of the characteristics of the interaction in the cluster models of innovation development of the economy. Considerable expectancies on improvement of the national innovative system are connected with the development of cluster and network structures. The main objective of government authorities is the formation of mechanisms and institutions that will foster cooperation between members of the clusters. The article explains that the clusters cannot become the factors in the growth of the national economy, not being an effective tool for interaction between the actors of the regional innovative systems.

The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faude, D.

1991-01-01

A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

Applied evolutionary economics and economic geography

OpenAIRE

Peter Sunley

2008-01-01

Applied Evolutionary Economics and Economic Geography aims to further advance empirical methodologies in evolutionary economics, with a special emphasis on geography and firm location. It does so by bringing together a select group of leading scholars including economists, geographers and sociologists, all of whom share an interest in explaining the uneven distribution of economic activities in space and the historical processes that have produced these patterns.

Learning to Apply Models of Materials While Explaining Their Properties

Science.gov (United States)

Karpin, Tiia; Juuti, Kalle; Lavonen, Jari

2014-01-01

Background: Applying structural models is important to chemistry education at the upper secondary level, but it is considered one of the most difficult topics to learn. Purpose: This study analyses to what extent in designed lessons students learned to apply structural models in explaining the properties and behaviours of various materials.…

Explaining dehumanization among children: the interspecies model of prejudice.

Science.gov (United States)

Costello, Kimberly; Hodson, Gordon

2014-03-01

Although many theoretical approaches have emerged to explain prejudices expressed by children, none incorporate outgroup dehumanization, a key predictor of prejudice among adults. According to the Interspecies Model of Prejudice, beliefs in the human-animal divide facilitate outgroup prejudice through fostering animalistic dehumanization (Costello & Hodson, 2010). In the present investigation, White children attributed Black children fewer 'uniquely human' characteristics, representing the first systematic evidence of racial dehumanization among children (Studies 1 and 2). In Study 2, path analyses supported the Interspecies Model of Prejudice: children's human-animal divide beliefs predicted greater racial prejudice, an effect explained by heightened racial dehumanization. Similar patterns emerged among parents. Furthermore, parent Social Dominance Orientation predicted child prejudice indirectly through children's endorsement of a hierarchical human-animal divide and subsequent dehumanizing tendencies. Encouragingly, children's human-animal divide perceptions were malleable to an experimental prime highlighting animal-human similarity. Implications for prejudice interventions are considered. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

A Model of How Different Biology Experts Explain Molecular and Cellular Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Trujillo, Caleb M.; Anderson, Trevor R.; Pelaez, Nancy J.

2015-01-01

Constructing explanations is an essential skill for all science learners. The goal of this project was to model the key components of expert explanation of molecular and cellular mechanisms. As such, we asked: What is an appropriate model of the components of explanation used by biology experts to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms? Do explanations made by experts from different biology subdisciplines at a university support the validity of this model? Guided by the modeling framework of R. S. Justi and J. K. Gilbert, the validity of an initial model was tested by asking seven biologists to explain a molecular mechanism of their choice. Data were collected from interviews, artifacts, and drawings, and then subjected to thematic analysis. We found that biologists explained the specific activities and organization of entities of the mechanism. In addition, they contextualized explanations according to their biological and social significance; integrated explanations with methods, instruments, and measurements; and used analogies and narrated stories. The derived methods, analogies, context, and how themes informed the development of our final MACH model of mechanistic explanations. Future research will test the potential of the MACH model as a guiding framework for instruction to enhance the quality of student explanations. PMID:25999313

R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoglund, R.L.

1984-01-01

The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

1984-01-01

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

Economic Creativity Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nasseroddin Kazemi Haghighi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available As a new concept in the literature, the authors discuss the conception of “Economic Creativ-ity” (EC. The authors explain psychological characteristics of “Economic Creativity”: atti-tudes, motivation, personality traits, and abili-ties. They propose a design based on Emotion of Thought Theory (Kazemi, 2007 for Economic Creativity Development (ECD. This theory is an affective-cognitive approach that tries to ex-plain creativity. Emotion of Thought involves “Poyaei” and “Bitabi” (in Persian meaning Dy-namism and Restlessness. According to this theory, ECD relates to connections between emotion and thought. The ECD includes pro-moting individual readiness, utilization of eco-nomic resources, attitude towards economic af-fairs development, enhancing the utilization of economic experiences, conducting economic ac-tivity education, development of economic thinking and development of emotion of thought.

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

2007-01-01

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

To what extent does IQ 'explain' socio-economic variations in function?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

van Eijk Jacques

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aims of this study were to examine the extent to which higher intellectual abilities protect higher socio-economic groups from functional decline and to examine whether the contribution of intellectual abilities is independent of childhood deprivation and low birth weight and other socio-economic and developmental factors in early life. Methods The Maastricht Aging Study (MAAS is a prospective cohort study based upon participants in a registration network of general practices in The Netherlands. Information was available on 1211 men and women, 24 – 81 years old, who were without cognitive impairment at baseline (1993 – 1995, who ever had a paid job, and who participated in the six-year follow-up. Main outcomes were longitudinal decline in important components of quality of life and successful aging, i.e., self-reported physical, affective, and cognitive functioning. Results Persons with a low occupational level at baseline showed more functional decline than persons with a high occupational level. Socio-economic and developmental factors from early life hardly contributed to the adult socio-economic differences in functional decline. Intellectual abilities, however, took into account more than one third of the association between adult socio-economic status and functional decline. The contribution of the intellectual abilities was independent of the early life factors. Conclusion Rather than developmental and socio-economic characteristics of early life, the findings substantiate the importance of intellectual abilities for functional decline and their contribution – as potential, but neglected confounders – to socio-economic differences in functioning, successful aging, and quality of life. The higher intellectual abilities in the higher socio-economic status groups may also underlie the higher prevalences of mastery, self-efficacy and efficient coping styles in these groups.

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

Science.gov (United States)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

2017-12-01

Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

What explains between-school differences in rates of sexual experience?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Williamson Lisa

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Schools have the potential to influence their pupils' behaviour through the school's social organisation and culture, as well as through the formal curriculum. This paper provides the first attempt to explain the differences between schools in rates of reported heterosexual sexual experience amongst 15 and 16 year olds. It first examined whether variations in rates of sexual experience remained after controlling for the known predictors of sexual activity. It then examined whether these residuals, or 'school effects', were attributable to processes within the school, or were more likely to reflect characteristics of the neighbourhood. Methods Longitudinal survey data from 4,926 pupils in 24 Scottish schools were linked to qualitative and quantitative data on school processes including quality of relationships (staff-pupil, etc, classroom discipline, organisation of Personal and Social Education, school appearance and pupil morale. Multi-level modelling was used to test a range of models and the resulting 'school effects' were then interpreted using the process data. Results Overall, 42% of girls and 33% of boys reported experience of sexual intercourse, with rates by school ranging from 23% to 61%. When individual socio-economic and socio-cultural factors were taken into account the school variation dropped sharply, though pupils' attitudes and aspirations had little effect. There was very little correlation between boys' and girls' rates of sexual experience by school, after controlling for known predictors of sexual activity. Girls were more influenced by individual socio-economic factors than boys. School-level socio-economic factors were predictive even after taking account of individual socio-cultural factors, suggesting that the wider socio-economic environment further influenced young people's sexual experience. Conclusion Importantly, school processes did not explain the variation between schools in sexual experience

A simple model explaining super-resolution in absolute optical instruments

Science.gov (United States)

Leonhardt, Ulf; Sahebdivan, Sahar; Kogan, Alex; Tyc, Tomáš

2015-05-01

We develop a simple, one-dimensional model for super-resolution in absolute optical instruments that is able to describe the interplay between sources and detectors. Our model explains the subwavelength sensitivity of a point detector to a point source reported in previous computer simulations and experiments (Miñano 2011 New J. Phys.13 125009; Miñano 2014 New J. Phys.16 033015).

The impact of the British model on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon György Jr.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-06-13

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

Effects of Credit on Economic Growth, Unemployment and Poverty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mangasa Augustinus Sipahutar

2016-06-01

              Effect of credit on economic growth, unemployment and poverty provides evidence from Indonesia on the role of banks credit for promoting economic growth and reducing both unemployment and poverty.  To document the link between banks credit and economic growth, we estimate a VAR model and variance decompositions of annual GDP per capita growth rates to examine what proxy measures of banks credit are most important in accounting for economic growth over time and how much they contribute to explaining economic growth.  We also estimate an ECM to document the relationship between banks credit to both unemployment and poverty.  This paper revealed bi-direction causality between banks credit and economic growth.  Banks credit promotes economic growth and economic growth affects credit depth and financial development.  Furthermore, banks credit is a growth accelerating factor on Indonesian economic growth.  Banks credit is an endogenous growth and a good predictor on Indonesian economy. Our estimation model explained that credit allocated by banks increases business escalation to the real sectors then promotes economic growth, decreases unemployment rate through increasing in labor demanded, increases income and then decrease poverty.  This overall transmission mechanism just occurred through presence of banks credit by increasing money supply to the real sectors, promotes growth and social welfare.   Keywords :  banks credit, economic growth, growth accelerating factor, poverty, unemployment   JEL Classification : E51, E52, E58

Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lasse Folke

2013-01-01

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

Complexity theory and financial regulation: economic policy needs interdisciplinary network analysis and behavioral modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Battiston, S.; Farmer, J.D.; Flache, A.; Garlaschelli, D.; Haldane, A.G.; Heesterbeek, H.; Hommes, C.; Jaeger, C.; May, R.; Scheffer, M.

2016-01-01

Traditional economic theory could not explain, much less predict, the near collapse of the financial system and its long-lasting effects on the global economy. Since the 2008 crisis, there has been increasing interest in using ideas from complexity theory to make sense of economic and financial

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Agglomeration Economies, Economic Growth and the New Economic Geography in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Alejandro Diaz-Bautista

2005-01-01

The present study of regional economic growth in Mexico is based on the new economic geography, where distance plays an important role in explaining urban regional economic growth. The results show that distance to the northern border of Mexico and labor migration between states of Mexico, after the passage of NAFTA are important factors that explain the regional state growth and agglomerations in Mexico between 1994 and 2000. The results also indicate that job growth and FDI are not signific...

Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

2008-12-01

Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivanov Roman V.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

From laggard to leader: Explaining offshore wind developments in the UK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kern, Florian; Smith, Adrian; Shaw, Chris; Raven, Rob; Verhees, Bram

2014-01-01

Offshore wind technology has recently undergone rapid deployment in the UK. And yet, up until recently, the UK was considered a laggard in terms of deploying renewable energy. How can this burst of offshore wind activity be explained? An economic analysis would seek signs for newfound competitiveness for offshore wind in energy markets. A policy analysis would highlight renewable energy policy developments and assess their contribution to economic prospects of offshore wind. However, neither perspective sheds sufficient light on the advocacy of the actors involved in the development and deployment of the technology. Without an account of technology politics it is hard to explain continuing policy support despite rising costs. By analysing the actor networks and narratives underpinning policy support for offshore wind, we explain how a fairly effective protective space was constructed through the enroling of key political and economic interests. - Highlights: • UK is world leader in offshore wind deployment. • Article explains boom in deployment by looking at the politics of renewable energy policy. • Offshore wind is supported by a variety of actors with aligned political and economic interests. • Analysis highlights the importance of a system builder

Characteristics of broadband slow earthquakes explained by a Brownian model

Science.gov (United States)

Ide, S.; Takeo, A.

2017-12-01

Brownian slow earthquake (BSE) model (Ide, 2008; 2010) is a stochastic model for the temporal change of seismic moment release by slow earthquakes, which can be considered as a broadband phenomena including tectonic tremors, low frequency earthquakes, and very low frequency (VLF) earthquakes in the seismological frequency range, and slow slip events in geodetic range. Although the concept of broadband slow earthquake may not have been widely accepted, most of recent observations are consistent with this concept. Then, we review the characteristics of slow earthquakes and how they are explained by BSE model. In BSE model, the characteristic size of slow earthquake source is represented by a random variable, changed by a Gaussian fluctuation added at every time step. The model also includes a time constant, which divides the model behavior into short- and long-time regimes. In nature, the time constant corresponds to the spatial limit of tremor/SSE zone. In the long-time regime, the seismic moment rate is constant, which explains the moment-duration scaling law (Ide et al., 2007). For a shorter duration, the moment rate increases with size, as often observed for VLF earthquakes (Ide et al., 2008). The ratio between seismic energy and seismic moment is constant, as shown in Japan, Cascadia, and Mexico (Maury et al., 2017). The moment rate spectrum has a section of -1 slope, limited by two frequencies corresponding to the above time constant and the time increment of the stochastic process. Such broadband spectra have been observed for slow earthquakes near the trench axis (Kaneko et al., 2017). This spectrum also explains why we can obtain VLF signals by stacking broadband seismograms relative to tremor occurrence (e.g., Takeo et al., 2010; Ide and Yabe, 2014). The fluctuation in BSE model can be non-Gaussian, as far as the variance is finite, as supported by the central limit theorem. Recent observations suggest that tremors and LFEs are spatially characteristic

Can Marxism Explain America's Racism?

Science.gov (United States)

Willhelm, Sidney M.

1980-01-01

The Marxist interpretation of the Black experience in America has always had difficulty explaining various noneconomic aspects of racism. A perspective is needed that can blend racism as a variable in relationship with economic variables. To reach this perspective, the labor process within capitalism must be more fully understood. (Author/GC)

The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poursina, B.

1998-08-01

Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

Economic modelling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

Explaining inequalities in women's mortality between U.S. States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Karas Montez

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Inequalities in women's mortality between U.S. states are large and growing. It is unknown whether they reflect differences between states in their population characteristics, contextual characteristics, or both. This study systematically examines the large inequalities in women's mortality between U.S. states using a multilevel approach. It focuses on “fundamental” social determinants of mortality at the individual and state levels as potential explanations. We analyze data from the 2013 public-use National Longitudinal Mortality Study on women aged 45–89 years and estimate multilevel logistic regression models. The models include women's personal characteristics (age, race/ethnicity, education, employment, income, and marriage and states’ contextual characteristics (economic environment, social cohesion, sociopolitical orientation, physical infrastructure, and tobacco environment. We found that variation in women's mortality across states was significant (p<0.001. Adjusting for women's personal characteristics explained 30% of the variation. Additionally adjusting for states’ contextual characteristics explained 62% of the variation; the most important characteristics were social cohesion and economic conditions. No significant mortality differences between any two states remained after accounting for individual and contextual characteristics. Supplementary analyses of men indicate that state contexts have stronger and more pernicious consequences for women than men. Taken together, the findings underscore the importance of ‘bringing context back in’ and taking a multilevel approach when investigating geographic inequalities in U.S. mortality. Keywords: Mortality, Gender, Inequality, Social determinants, U.S. states, Multilevel

Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

2013-04-01

The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

Mathematical model for space perception to explain auditory horopter curves; Chokaku horopter wo setsumeisuru kukan ichi chikaku model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okura, M. [Dynax Co., Tokyo (Japan); Maeda, T.; Tachi, S. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

1998-10-31

For binocular visual space, the horizontal line seen as a straight line on the subjective frontoparallel plane does not always agree with the physically straight line, and the shape thereof depends on distance from the observer. This phenomenon is known as a Helmhotz`s horopter. The same phenomenon may occur also in binaural space, which depends on distance to an acoustic source. This paper formulates a scaler addition model that explains auditory horopter by using two items of information: sound pressure and interaural time difference. Furthermore, this model was used to perform simulations on different learning domains, and the following results were obtained. It was verified that the distance dependence of the auditory horopter can be explained by using the above scaler addition model; and difference in horopter shapes among the subjects may be explained by individual difference in learning domains of spatial position recognition. In addition, such an auditory model was shown not to include as short distance as in the learning domain in the auditory horopter model. 21 refs., 6 figs.

Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

Science.gov (United States)

Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

2017-12-01

The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

Introduction to economic modeling for clinical rheumatologists: application to biologic agents in rheumatoid arthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Marra, Carlo A; Bansback, Nick; Anis, Aslam H; Shojania, Kamran

2011-03-01

evaluation, we refer the reader to an introductory article aimed at clinical rheumatologists. This paper attempts to explain the rationale for the use of economic modeling approaches to assess the value of biologics for RA using specific examples from the literature.

Economic aspects and models for building codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suparna Wijaya

2017-03-01

Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth

Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

2013-01-01

the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2003-01-01

The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae MOROIANU

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

Understanding the Drivers of Economic Growth: Grounding Endogenous Economic Growth Models in Resource-Advantage Theory

OpenAIRE

Hunt, Shelby D.

2012-01-01

Foss (2012) provides an informed and informative comment on my article “Trust, Personal Moral Codes, and the Resource-Advantage Theory of Competition: Explaining Productivity, Economic Growth, and Wealth Creation” (Hunt, 2012). In general, his comment is highly supportive of both the theory and the arguments developed in my article. He does, however, raise certain issues that need to be addressed. These issues relate to the concept of total factor productivity, the role of institutions in pro...

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2016-09-01

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

Economic tour package model using heuristic

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

2014-07-01

A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

A demographic-economic explanation of political stability: Mauritius as a microcosm.

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, D

1987-06-01

"This paper examines current models of economic and political development--social modernization theory, political and economic characteristics of stable regimes, and cross country analysis of political stability--and tests them on the Indian Ocean Island of Mauritius. The analysis continues with a causal explanation for political stability in Mauritius' recent history, derived from an examination of economic policies and demographic patterns. Political change in Mauritius over the past sixty years seems to be explained best by a model for political stability which integrates specific economic and demographic factors. The model, applicable to development in other third world nations, revises Malthus' conclusion that population and economic conditions move in an oscillatory relationship and replaces it with a more comprehensive theory, suggesting that political stability is a function of both economic development and a repeating cyclical relationship between economics and population." excerpt

Long-Term Fundamentals of the 2008 Economic Crisis

OpenAIRE

David Mayer-Foulkes

2009-01-01

The current economic crisis has long-term causes that are rooted in the economic dynamics of globalization. I construct a Solow-style endogenous model of capital accumulation, technological change, trade and cheap-factor-seeking foreign direct investment (FDI), based on myopic agents. Combining advanced technologies with low costs, FDI yields extraordinary profits that generate asymmetric innovation incentives that explain the following stylized facts. Globalization (a) increases capital accu...

Economic Integration and the Civilizing Commerce Hypothesis

OpenAIRE

James E. Anderson

2005-01-01

Economic integration lowers one form of trade costs, tariffs, and stimulates changes in other trade costs. This paper offers a model in which integration may raise or lower the important trade cost associated with insecurity. The model can help to explain the varied experience with integration and it points to the usefulness of combining enforcement policy integration with trade policy integration.

Which theories can explain the emerging economic problems? Theories of the firm in the new institutional economics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marek Matuszak

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The article presents basic assumptions and new theories of the firm connected with New Institutional Economics (NIE. NIE is regarded as a stream of research which enlarges and enriches the neoclassical economics. NIE focuses on the phenomena ignored by the traditional economics. The research field of NIE is very diversified but the adhesive which integrates all its streams is the idea that the main determinants of the development are institutions. The following part of the article contains a brief presentation of the notion, the significance and the types of institutions. It is stated that the market and its mechanisms depend on the characteristics of institutions which define its nature. Next the article presents briefly new theories of the firm related to NIE – the moral hazard or agency- theoretic approach, transaction cost economics approach and „capabilities” approach. The last part of the article examines the importance of institutions for creating the competitive advantage of a firm and of economies.

Value function in economic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

2017-11-01

Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

Explaining the Allocation of Regional Structural Funds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Charron, Nicholas

2016-01-01

What regional factors can explain the heterogeneity in Structural Funds distribution to European Union regions? Past studies have shown that aside from the level of economic development and rates of unemployment, other political, and economic factors systematically explain why certain European...... Union regions receive greater funding than others, in particular where there is room for bargaining. In this article, a novel theory is posited which argues that the determination of Structural Funds is based on an interaction between a region’s formal institutions (the level of a regional autonomy......) and informal institutions (its level of quality of government). In cases of low regional autonomy, member states and European Union level actors prefer to allocate greater levels of Funds to regions with lower quality of government in order to increase cohesion. Yet in cases of high regional autonomy, risks...

Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, O.

1993-01-01

Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

OpenAIRE

DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

2017-01-01

While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

Explaining the wage gap: Heckscher-Ohlin, economic geography and services availability

OpenAIRE

Peeters, J.; Vaal, A. de

2000-01-01

In the debate on globalisation and wage inequality Heckscher-Ohlin, economic geography and services availability theory has featured prominently. However, a neglected mechanism by which globalisation affects labour market outcomes is through the in-creased tradability of producer services. By integrating elements of Heck-scher- Ohlin theory, the economic geography literature and the literature on producer services linkages, we show that the impact of globalisation on the relative wages is a s...

The genetic architecture of economic and political preferences

OpenAIRE

Benjamin, Daniel J.; Cesarini, David; van der Loos, Matthijs J. H. M.; Dawes, Christopher T.; Koellinger, Philipp D.; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Chabris, Christopher F.; Conley, Dalton; Laibson, David; Johannesson, Magnus; Visscher, Peter M.

2012-01-01

textabstractPreferences are fundamental building blocks in all models of economic and political behavior. We study a new sample of comprehensively genotyped subjects with data on economic and political preferences and educational attainment. We use dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data to estimate the proportion of variation in these traits explained by common SNPs and to conduct genome-wide association study (GWAS) and prediction analyses. The pattern of results is consistent with ...

An economic model for seaborne oil trade

OpenAIRE

Hong, Kian-Wah

1996-01-01

This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

Science.gov (United States)

Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

2014-01-01

The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

A Model of How Different Biology Experts Explain Molecular and Cellular Mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Trujillo, Caleb M.; Anderson, Trevor R.; Pelaez, Nancy J.

2015-01-01

Constructing explanations is an essential skill for all science learners. The goal of this project was to model the key components of expert explanation of molecular and cellular mechanisms. As such, we asked: What is an appropriate model of the components of explanation used by biology experts to explain molecular and cellular mechanisms? Do…

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

EXPLAINING THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INCARCERATION AND DIVORCE*

Science.gov (United States)

Siennick, Sonja E.; Stewart, Eric A.; Staff, Jeremy

2014-01-01

Recent studies have suggested that incarceration dramatically increases the odds of divorce, but we know little about the mechanisms that explain the association. This study uses prospective longitudinal data from a subset of married young adults in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 1,919) to examine whether incarceration is associated with divorce indirectly via low marital love, economic strain, relationship violence, and extramarital sex. The findings confirmed that incarcerations occurring during, but not before, a marriage were associated with an increased hazard of divorce. Incarcerations occurring during marriage also were associated with less marital love, more relationship violence, more economic strain, and greater odds of extramarital sex. Above-average levels of economic strain were visible among respondents observed preincarceration, but only respondents observed postincarceration showed less marital love, more relationship violence, and higher odds of extramarital sex than did respondents who were not incarcerated during marriage. These relationship problems explained approximately 40 percent of the association between incarceration and marital dissolution. These findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that a spouse’s incarceration alters the rewards and costs of the marriage and the relative attractiveness of alternative partners. PMID:25598544

Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yurii V.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

Economic Citizenship and Socio-Economic Rationality as Foundations of an Appropriate Economic Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christoph Schank

2014-10-01

Full Text Available In this article we argue that social science education needs to convey more than operational mechanisms of society. Especially in socio-economic education, questions of business ethics, i.e. phenomena of economics and society need to be integrated and reflected, decidedly focusing on the moral content of economics. With the introduction of economic citizenship as the ideal economic actor to be the purpose of economic education, this paper proposes that economic education needs to connect economic expertise and moral judgment and should also allude to the necessity of every market action’s conditional legitimization by society. We propose to discuss different ‘sites’ of morality as a heuristic approach to the different areas of economic responsibility. The individual, organizational and political level of responsibility helps to categorize the different moral issues of economic activity and serves as a great pattern to explain economic relations to scholars and students.

Lending sociodynamics and economic instability

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, Raymond J.

2011-11-01

We show how the dynamics of economic instability and financial crises articulated by Keynes in the General Theory and developed by Minsky as the Financial Instability Hypothesis can be formalized using Weidlich’s sociodynamics of opinion formation. The model addresses both the lending sentiment of a lender in isolation as well as the impact on that lending sentiment of the behavior of other lenders. The risk associated with lending is incorporated through a stochastic treatment of loan dynamics that treats prepayment and default as competing risks. With this model we are able to generate endogenously the rapid changes in lending opinion that attend slow changes in lending profitability and find these dynamics to be consistent with the rise and collapse of the non-Agency mortgage-backed securities market in 2007/2008. As the parameters of this model correspond to well-known phenomena in cognitive and social psychology, we can both explain why economic instability has proved robust to advances in risk measurement and suggest how policy for reducing economic instability might be formulated in an experimentally sound manner.

Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.V. Kravtsova

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

OpenAIRE

Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

2014-01-01

The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

Science.gov (United States)

Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

2010-09-07

Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

Explaining environmental Kuznets curves. How pollution induces policy and new technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smulders, S.; Bretschger, L.

2000-01-01

Production often causes pollution as a by-product. Once pollution problems become too severe, regulation is introduced by political authorities which forces the economy to make a transition to cleaner production processes. We model this transition as a change in 'general purpose technology' (GPT) and investigate how it interferes with economic growth driven by quality-improvements. The model gives an explanation for the inverted U-shaped relationship found in empirical research for many pollutants, often referred to as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). We provide an analytical foundation for the claim that the rise and decline of pollution can be explained by policy-induced technology shifts. 19 refs

OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TĂNĂSESCU ANA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

CONNECTION BETWEEN ECONOMICS, CULTURE AND CULTURAL DIPLOMACY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agil Valiyev

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Today, culture is one of the main feeble factors of economic development.  The leading role of culture in economic development should be argued as multiplied: so, on firstly, as domestic value, on secondly, as a main factor of regional economic development advanced to raised gravity of different regions for residents, tourists and investors, on thirdly, as major parameters of social development based on tolerance, creativity and knowledge. To the different international experiences, culture is main part of economic development in our life. Cultural diversities are combined into a main reason economic development model. The article consist of explainations about the understanding of culture, cultural diplomacy and economics, approach on conflicts between culture and economics, to find how affecting of culture to economic development, the role of culture in economic development of Azerbaijan. The article can be considered as a useful resource  for experts and researchers conducting research in this field.

FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

2011-01-01

Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

2005-01-01

textabstractThe authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate

CONSUMER’S BEHAVIOUR – AN APPROACH FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viorel CORNESCU

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The consumer and his behaviour have concerned all economists, no matter if they are theoreticians or practitioners. Naturally, research in the domain has revealed new aspects, new theories and has led to the creation of schools of thought in time. Standard or neo-classic economics, which lays stress on absolute rationality, the maximization of results, modelling etc., cannot wholly decipher economic mechanisms or efficiently explain and guide the economic life of society. That is why, if we take as a starting point the observation that man lies at the heart of economy, we understand that the attempts to explain his role and the manner in which he behaves in economic life are more and more numerous and involve the use of concepts from different domains of study: psychology, sociology, etc. The present study aims at analysing the consumer’s behaviour from a perspective which already has a consistent and well-outlined profile in the economic science and is known as behavioural economics.

Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinhel, A.C.C.

1992-01-01

A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

Ethnic differences in maternal dietary patterns are largely explained by socio-economic score and integration score: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Christine; Sletner, Line; Jenum, Anne K; Mørkrid, Kjersti; Andersen, Lene F; Birkeland, Kåre I; Mosdøl, Annhild

2013-01-01

The impact of socio-economic position and integration level on the observed ethnic differences in dietary habits has received little attention. To identify and describe dietary patterns in a multi-ethnic population of pregnant women, to explore ethnic differences in odds ratio (OR) for belonging to a dietary pattern, when adjusted for socio-economic status and integration level and to examine whether the dietary patterns were reflected in levels of biomarkers related to obesity and hyperglycaemia. This cross-sectional study was a part of the STORK Groruddalen study. In total, 757 pregnant women, of whom 59% were of a non-Western origin, completed a food frequency questionnaire in gestational week 28±2. Dietary patterns were extracted through cluster analysis using Ward's method. Four robust clusters were identified where cluster 4 was considered the healthier dietary pattern and cluster 1 the least healthy. All non-European women as compared to Europeans had higher OR for belonging to the unhealthier dietary patterns 1-3 vs. cluster 4. Women from the Middle East and Africa had the highest OR, 21.5 (95% CI 10.6-43.7), of falling into cluster 1 vs. 4 as compared to Europeans. The ORs decreased substantially after adjusting for socio-economic score and integration score. A non-European ethnic origin, low socio-economic and integration scores, conduced higher OR for belonging to clusters 1, 2, and 3 as compared to cluster 4. Significant differences in fasting and 2-h glucose, fasting insulin, glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and total cholesterol were observed across the dietary patterns. After adjusting for ethnicity, differences in fasting insulin (p=0.015) and HOMA-IR (p=0.040) across clusters remained significant, despite low power. The results indicate that socio-economic and integration level may explain a large proportion of the ethnic differences in dietary patterns.

Economical modelling of social and moral norms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyborg, Karine

2001-01-01

Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVES IN ECONOMIC CRISES GEOGRAPHY. ECONOMIC STRATEGIES IN EU COUNTRIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roxana Maria Grecu

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The strategies for structural-systemic crisis management have generated, to a geographical level, a number of differences between EU countries. These cleavages are the result of differentialmacroeconomic policies. In this context, this article has the aim of achieving a comparative approach between countries of the south, west and east of the EU space. Also our approach is focused on observing the nature of macroeconomic policies and also on identifying a "pattern" associated with a common ideal -type of "rational choice" in the efficient and effective management of systemic crises. This article aims to identify areas of growth and economic stability of a particular model of public policy and political-economic ideology, to set up a mechanism for "economic engineering”. From the methodological point of view, this article uses a quantitativemethodology, derived from mathematical analysis, statistics and stochastic, in order to explain, understand and predict the possible evolution of the systemic crises in the EU countries. The interest lies in the possibility of giving a model of macroeconomic policy for the adjustment of inflationist imbalances, labor market and pricepolicy, and also in regulating the equation of production-consumption.

INSTITUTIONAL THEORY OF ECONOMIC REFORMS: BASIC IMPERATIVES

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Oleg Sergeevich SUKHAREV

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The ability of institutional economic theory to explain various kinds of economic reforms (changes on the basis of theoretical ideas about the dysfunction of institutions and systems are investigated. A number of classifications of reforms and dysfunctions is introduced and kinds of institutional efficiency of economic systems are defined. Qualitative regularities of various reforms of the twentieth century in different countries are generalized. A number of criteria of effective institutional reforms, capable to lower the depth and the scale of dysfunctions of the functioning economic subsystems is formed. System approach to the analysis of economic systems reforming with underlining the importance of reform “management” factor which defines productivity of economic development is elaborated. Life cycle of institution and economic system in the process of its reforming is presented and correction of J. Hellmann’s model, describing the reforming logic of economy is made.

A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

The application of a social cognition model in explaining fruit intake in Austrian, Norwegian and Spanish schoolchildren using structural equation modelling

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Pérez-Rodrigo Carmen

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this paper was to test the goodness of fit of the Attitude – Social influence – self-Efficacy (ASE model in explaining schoolchildren's intentions to eat fruit and their actual fruit intake in Austria, Norway and Spain; to assess how well the model could explain the observed variance in intention to eat fruit and in reported fruit intake and to investigate whether the same model would fit data from all three countries. Methods Samples consisted of schoolchildren from three of the countries participating in the cross-sectional part of the Pro Children project. Sample size varied from 991 in Austria to 1297 in Spain. Mean age ranged from 11.3 to 11.4 years. The initial model was designed using items and constructs from the Pro Children study. Factor analysis was conducted to test the structure of the measures in the model. The Norwegian sample was used to test the latent variable structure, to make a preliminary assessment of model fit, and to modify the model to increase goodness of fit with the data. The original and modified models were then applied to the Austrian and Spanish samples. All model analyses were carried out using structural equation modelling techniques. Results The ASE-model fitted the Norwegian and Spanish data well. For Austria, a slightly more complex model was needed. For this reason multi-sample analysis to test equality in factor structure and loadings across countries could not be used. The models explained between 51% and 69% of the variance in intention to eat fruit, and 27% to 38% of the variance in reported fruit intake. Conclusion Structural equation modelling showed that a rather parsimonious model was useful in explaining the variation in fruit intake of 11-year-old schoolchildren in Norway and Spain. For Austria, more modifications were needed to fit the data.

Life course socio-economic position and quality of life in adulthood: a systematic review of life course models

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background A relationship between current socio-economic position and subjective quality of life has been demonstrated, using wellbeing, life and needs satisfaction approaches. Less is known regarding the influence of different life course socio-economic trajectories on later quality of life. Several conceptual models have been proposed to help explain potential life course effects on health, including accumulation, latent, pathway and social mobility models. This systematic review aimed to assess whether evidence supported an overall relationship between life course socio-economic position and quality of life during adulthood and if so, whether there was support for one or more life course models. Methods A review protocol was developed detailing explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria, search terms, data extraction items and quality appraisal procedures. Literature searches were performed in 12 electronic databases during January 2012 and the references and citations of included articles were checked for additional relevant articles. Narrative synthesis was used to analyze extracted data and studies were categorized based on the life course model analyzed. Results Twelve studies met the eligibility criteria and used data from 10 datasets and five countries. Study quality varied and heterogeneity between studies was high. Seven studies assessed social mobility models, five assessed the latent model, two assessed the pathway model and three tested the accumulation model. Evidence indicated an overall relationship, but mixed results were found for each life course model. Some evidence was found to support the latent model among women, but not men. Social mobility models were supported in some studies, but overall evidence suggested little to no effect. Few studies addressed accumulation and pathway effects and study heterogeneity limited synthesis. Conclusions To improve potential for synthesis in this area, future research should aim to increase study

Medical imaging technology shock and volatility of macro economics: Analysis using a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shurong; Huang, Yeqing

2017-07-07

The study analysed the medical imaging technology business cycle from 1981 to 2009 and found that the volatility of consumption in Chinese medical imaging business was higher than that of the developed countries. The volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) and the correlation between consumption and GDP is also higher than that of the developed countries. Prior to the early 1990s the volatility of consumption is even higher than GDP. This fact makes it difficult to explain the volatile market using the standard one sector real economic cycle (REC) model. Contrary to the other domestic studies, this study considers a three-sector dynamical stochastic general equilibrium REC model. In this model there are two consumption sectors, whereby one is labour intensive and another is capital intensive. The more capital intensive investment sector only introduces technology shocks in the medical imaging market. Our response functions and Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the model can explain 90% of the volatility of consummation relative to GDP, and explain the correlation between consumption and GDP. The results demonstrated the significant correlation between the technological reform in medical imaging and volatility in the labour market on Chinese macro economy development.

The Navigation Metaphor in Security Economics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pieters, Wolter; Barendse, Jeroen; Ford, Margaret

2016-01-01

The navigation metaphor for cybersecurity merges security architecture models and security economics. By identifying the most efficient routes for gaining access to assets from an attacker's viewpoint, an organization can optimize its defenses along these routes. The well-understood concept of na...... of navigation makes it easier to motivate and explain security investment to a wide audience, encouraging strategic security decisions....

Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

1979-06-01

This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE ON LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH IN BOTSWANA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Strike Mbulawa

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The growth rate for the Botswana economy has slowed down in recent years. This has been explained by weak global demand in minerals, subdued commodity prices and persistent electricity supply problems. The government is making efforts to diversify the economy to tap from other sources of growth. The government has come with two initiatives to boast growth: increasing expenditure on roads and improved generation of electricity. Literature has failed to agree on the causal linkage between growth and infrastructure development.  Previous studies employed different measures of infrastructure development and models resulting in conflicting findings. As a point of departure this study uses a log linear model and different measures of growth and infrastructure to examine the link between the two variables in the context of Botswana. Using vector error correction model and Ordinary Least Squares the study finds that long term economic growth is explained by both measures of infrastructure (electricity distribution and maintenance of roads. The impact of the former was more pronounced than the impact of the later. Evidence supports the infrastructure led growth hypothesis.

User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-09-01

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

Establishing a Set of Macroeconomic Factors Explaining Variation Over Time of Performance in Business Sectors

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Audrius Dzikevičius

2016-06-01

Full Text Available With increasing competitiveness of companies and business sectors in the domestic markets of Lithuania, economic units are frequently confronted with the lack of methods for more detailed analysis of external factors explaining the variation over time of corporate financial indicators. The analysis or forecasting of financial indicators is usually linked with the development of a stock market or undertaken to estimate the probability of bankruptcy. However, there is a lack of studies aimed at identifying links between macroeconomic factors and financial performance indicators and explaining their variation over time. To serve that purpose, the factors of the macroeconomic environment that are most significant for certain economic activities have been identified and analysed to enable explaining the variation over time patterns of corporate financial indicators. The analysis covers economic performance, i.e. financial performance indicators and their links with macroeconomic factors, in 89 business sectors of Lithuania at a three-digit level of NACE 2 ed. The findings of the research indicate that the unemployment level in the country, the volume of export and import and the GDP are the most important macroeconomic factors that can be used to forecast different profitability, financial leverage, liquidity and other financial performance indicators of individual business sectors or companies. The research has not unfolded any significant differences between business sectors therefore the above factors are considered generic macroeconomic factors enabling to explain financial performance indicators of the 89 business sectors. Hence, special attention has to be paid to identifying and analysing specific factors and assessing the causal link. When established, the set of such factors provides a framework for building of a model to forecast business sector financial indicators.

Explaining pathological changes in axonal excitability through dynamical analysis of conductance-based models

Science.gov (United States)

Coggan, Jay S.; Ocker, Gabriel K.; Sejnowski, Terrence J.; Prescott, Steven A.

2011-10-01

Neurons rely on action potentials, or spikes, to relay information. Pathological changes in spike generation likely contribute to certain enigmatic features of neurological disease, like paroxysmal attacks of pain and muscle spasm. Paroxysmal symptoms are characterized by abrupt onset and short duration, and are associated with abnormal spiking although the exact pathophysiology remains unclear. To help decipher the biophysical basis for 'paroxysmal' spiking, we replicated afterdischarge (i.e. continued spiking after a brief stimulus) in a minimal conductance-based axon model. We then applied nonlinear dynamical analysis to explain the dynamical basis for initiation and termination of afterdischarge. A perturbation could abruptly switch the system between two (quasi-)stable attractor states: rest and repetitive spiking. This bistability was a consequence of slow positive feedback mediated by persistent inward current. Initiation of afterdischarge was explained by activation of the persistent inward current forcing the system to cross a saddle point that separates the basins of attraction associated with each attractor. Termination of afterdischarge was explained by the attractor associated with repetitive spiking being destroyed. This occurred when ultra-slow negative feedback, such as intracellular sodium accumulation, caused the saddle point and stable limit cycle to collide; in that regard, the active attractor is not truly stable when the slowest dynamics are taken into account. The model also explains other features of paroxysmal symptoms, including temporal summation and refractoriness.

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riegels, Niels

is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...

The Prediction Performance of Asset Pricing Models and Their Capability of Capturing the Effects of Economic Crises: The Case of Istanbul Stock Exchange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erol Muzır

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This paper is prepared to test the common opinion that the multifactor asset pricing models produce superior predictions as compared to the single factor models and to evaluate the performance of Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM. For this purpose, the monthly return data from January 1996 and December 2004 of the stocks of 45 firms listed at Istanbul Stock Exchange were used. Our factor analysis results show that 68,3 % of the return variation can be explained by five factors. Although the APT model has generated a low coefficient of determination, 28,3 %, it proves to be more competent in explaining stock return changes when compared to CAPM which has an inferior explanation power, 5,4 %. Furthermore, we have observed that APT is more robust also in capturing the effects of any economic crisis on return variations.

The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

1991-01-01

The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

Studying Economic Space: Synthesis of Balance and Game-Theoretic Methods of Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article introduces questions about development of models used to study economic space. The author proposes the model that combines balance and game-theoretic methods for estimating system effects of economic agents’ interactions in multi-level economic space. The model is applied to research interactions between economic agents that are spatially heterogeneous within the Russian Far East. In the model the economic space of region is considered in a territorial dimension (the first level of decomposing space and also in territorial and product dimensions (the second level of decomposing space. The paper shows the mechanism of system effects formation that exists in the economic space of region. The author estimates system effects, analyses the real allocation of these effects between economic agents and identifies three types of local industrial markets: with zero, positive and negative system effects

Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouden, den M.

1996-01-01

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

2009-01-01

This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

Socio-Economic Determinants of International Migration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaroslav PRYTULA

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Since economic factors cannot fully explain the determinants of bilateral migration, this study explores the social and cultural determinants that influence an individual’s decision to migrate. Values, norms and interests in a given culture, may determine whether an individual’s intention to move translates into actual migration. Work values inherent in different cultures could explain why people move or do not move under the condition of perceived economic advantages of migration. A gravity type migration model is used to incorporate variables related both to economic indicators and work values. It is perhaps the first migration study to use the World Value Survey (WVS and the European Value Survey (EVS. We use 2000 stock bilateral migration dataset collected by the World Bank. Our findings indicate that if more aspects of work are valued in a country, this country sends more migrants. Also we show that countries with higher extrinsic work value orientation tend to send more migrants, while countries with higher intrinsic work value orientation tend to send fewer migrants. Our finding shows that the value of work and the level of job security in a country may significantly change migration decision.

The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: an application of the multivariate threshold model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bwo-Nung Huang; National Chia-Yi University; Hwang, M.J.; Hsiao-Ping Peng

2005-01-01

This paper applies the multivariate threshold model to investigate the impacts of an oil price change and its volatility on economic activities (changes in industrial production and real stock returns). The statistical test on the existence of a threshold effect indicates that a threshold value does exist. Using monthly data of the US, Canada, and Japan during the period from 1970 to 2002, we conclude: (i) the optimal threshold level seems to vary according to how an economy depends on imported oil and the attitude towards adopting energy-saving technology; (ii) an oil price change or its volatility has a limited impact on the economies if the change is below the threshold levels; (iii) if the change is above threshold levels, it appears that the change in oil price better explains macroeconomic variables than the volatility of the oil price; and (iv) if the change is above threshold levels, a change in oil price or its volatility explains the model better than the real interest rate. (author)

Explained variation and predictive accuracy in general parametric statistical models: the role of model misspecification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosthøj, Susanne; Keiding, Niels

2004-01-01

When studying a regression model measures of explained variation are used to assess the degree to which the covariates determine the outcome of interest. Measures of predictive accuracy are used to assess the accuracy of the predictions based on the covariates and the regression model. We give a ...... a detailed and general introduction to the two measures and the estimation procedures. The framework we set up allows for a study of the effect of misspecification on the quantities estimated. We also introduce a generalization to survival analysis....

Economic modeling of surgical disease: a measure of public health interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Corlew, D Scott

2013-07-01

The measurement of the burden of disease and the interventions that address that burden can be done in various units. Reducing these measures to the common denominator of economic units (i.e., currency) enables comparison with other health entities, interventions, and even other fields. Economic assessment is complex, however, because of the multifactorial components of what constitutes health and what constitutes health interventions, as well as the coupling of those data to economic means. To perform economic modeling in a meaningful manner, it is necessary to: (1) define the health problem to be addressed; (2) define the intervention to be assessed; (3) define a measure of the effect of the health entity with and without the intervention (which includes defining the counterfactual); and (4) determine the appropriate method of converting the health effect to economics. This paper discusses technical aspects of how economic modeling can be done both of disease entities and of interventions. Two examples of economic modeling applied to surgical problems are then given.

The genetic architecture of economic and political preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamin, Daniel J; Cesarini, David; van der Loos, Matthijs J H M; Dawes, Christopher T; Koellinger, Philipp D; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Chabris, Christopher F; Conley, Dalton; Laibson, David; Johannesson, Magnus; Visscher, Peter M

2012-05-22

Preferences are fundamental building blocks in all models of economic and political behavior. We study a new sample of comprehensively genotyped subjects with data on economic and political preferences and educational attainment. We use dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data to estimate the proportion of variation in these traits explained by common SNPs and to conduct genome-wide association study (GWAS) and prediction analyses. The pattern of results is consistent with findings for other complex traits. First, the estimated fraction of phenotypic variation that could, in principle, be explained by dense SNP arrays is around one-half of the narrow heritability estimated using twin and family samples. The molecular-genetic-based heritability estimates, therefore, partially corroborate evidence of significant heritability from behavior genetic studies. Second, our analyses suggest that these traits have a polygenic architecture, with the heritable variation explained by many genes with small effects. Our results suggest that most published genetic association studies with economic and political traits are dramatically underpowered, which implies a high false discovery rate. These results convey a cautionary message for whether, how, and how soon molecular genetic data can contribute to, and potentially transform, research in social science. We propose some constructive responses to the inferential challenges posed by the small explanatory power of individual SNPs.

Modern elementary particle physics explaining and extending the standard model

CERN Document Server

Kane, Gordon

2017-01-01

This book is written for students and scientists wanting to learn about the Standard Model of particle physics. Only an introductory course knowledge about quantum theory is needed. The text provides a pedagogical description of the theory, and incorporates the recent Higgs boson and top quark discoveries. With its clear and engaging style, this new edition retains its essential simplicity. Long and detailed calculations are replaced by simple approximate ones. It includes introductions to accelerators, colliders, and detectors, and several main experimental tests of the Standard Model are explained. Descriptions of some well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model prepare the reader for new developments. It emphasizes the concepts of gauge theories and Higgs physics, electroweak unification and symmetry breaking, and how force strengths vary with energy, providing a solid foundation for those working in the field, and for those who simply want to learn about the Standard Model.

Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Nobre, AM

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

1993-12-01

In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

A multidimensional decision-making model for internationalization of high-tech SMEs in transition economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roersen, M.J.; Roersen, Mariska; Groen, Arend J.; Kraaijenbrink, Jeroen

2008-01-01

Until now, international entrepreneurship has mainly used stage theory, institutional theory, transaction cost economics and the resource-based view to explain or describe the internationalization of SMEs in transition economy context. Following recent literature we contend that these approaches are

Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

OpenAIRE

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its stru....... Further fundamental extensions and advances to more sophisticated theory models, such as those related to dynamics and expectations (in the structural relations) are left for future papers......This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its......, it is demonstrated how other controversial hypotheses such as Rational Expectations can be formulated directly as restrictions on the CVAR-parameters. A simple example of a "Neoclassical synthetic" AS-AD model is also formulated. Finally, the partial- general equilibrium distinction is related to the CVAR as well...

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

Explaining ecological clusters of maternal depression in South Western Sydney

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background The aim of the qualitative study reported here was to: 1) explain the observed clustering of postnatal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney; and 2) identify group-level mechanisms that would add to our understanding of the social determinants of maternal depression. Methods Critical realism provided the methodological underpinning for the study. The setting was four local government areas in South Western Sydney, Australia. Child and Family practitioners and mothers in naturally occurring mothers groups were interviewed. Results Using an open coding approach to maximise emergence of patterns and relationships we have identified seven theoretical concepts that might explain the observed spatial clustering of maternal depression. The theoretical concepts identified were: Community-level social networks; Social Capital and Social Cohesion; "Depressed community"; Access to services at the group level; Ethnic segregation and diversity; Supportive social policy; and Big business. Conclusions We postulate that these regional structural, economic, social and cultural mechanisms partially explain the pattern of maternal depression observed in families and communities within South Western Sydney. We further observe that powerful global economic and political forces are having an impact on the local situation. The challenge for policy and practice is to support mothers and their families within this adverse regional and global-economic context. PMID:24460690

Explaining ecological clusters of maternal depression in South Western Sydney.

Science.gov (United States)

Eastwood ED, John; Kemp, Lynn; Jalaludin, Bin

2014-01-24

The aim of the qualitative study reported here was to: 1) explain the observed clustering of postnatal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney; and 2) identify group-level mechanisms that would add to our understanding of the social determinants of maternal depression. Critical realism provided the methodological underpinning for the study. The setting was four local government areas in South Western Sydney, Australia. Child and Family practitioners and mothers in naturally occurring mothers groups were interviewed. Using an open coding approach to maximise emergence of patterns and relationships we have identified seven theoretical concepts that might explain the observed spatial clustering of maternal depression. The theoretical concepts identified were: Community-level social networks; Social Capital and Social Cohesion; "Depressed community"; Access to services at the group level; Ethnic segregation and diversity; Supportive social policy; and Big business. We postulate that these regional structural, economic, social and cultural mechanisms partially explain the pattern of maternal depression observed in families and communities within South Western Sydney. We further observe that powerful global economic and political forces are having an impact on the local situation. The challenge for policy and practice is to support mothers and their families within this adverse regional and global-economic context.

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2013-12-31

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

The economics of electricity markets

CERN Document Server

Biggar, Darryl R

2014-01-01

With the transition to liberalized electricity markets in many countries, the shift to more environmentally sustainable forms of power generation and increasing penetration of electric vehicles and smart appliances, a fundamental understanding of the economic principles underpinning the electricity industry is vital. Using clarity and precision, the authors successfully explain economic theory of all liberalized electricity market types from a cross-disciplinary engineering and policy perspective. No prior engineering knowledge or economics expertise is assumed in introducing key ideas such as nodal pricing, optimal dispatch and efficient pricing or in extending those models to areas including investment, risk management and the handling of contingencies. Key features: Comprehensively covers the principles of all liberalized electricity market types, including the US, Europe, New Zealand and Australia. Provides up to date coverage of research and policy iss es, including design of financial transmission rig...

Growth structure and environment. 6 contributions to the macro economic model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, Mette

1998-04-01

This thesis comprises 6 papers on the application of macro economic models to environmental problems. Interactions between the economic and the ecological models are elucidated and a description is given of a possible systematization of of the environmental-economic cycle within a macro economic model. Economic and technological limitations affecting the potential environmental advantages are discussed. In the second part of the thesis the general interdependence of production and consumption, and the various forms of environmental stress is analyzed. For this purpose an environment-related input-output model is presented, where for each industry there are given emissions and/or consumption of natural resources (so-called environmental coefficients), which are likely to originate from the activities of this industry. As examples of macro economic modelling,the nitrogen cycle in Denmark, environmental effects of consumer choice, use of building materials and emission due to energy generation and consumption etc. are analyzed. (EG) 146 refs

Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jess Bier

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

Economic versus belief-based models: Shedding light on the adoption of novel green technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girod, Bastien; Mayer, Sebastian; Nägele, Florian

2017-01-01

Understanding the determinants for the adoption of novel green consumer technologies is important to effectively foster their diffusion. Energy and environmental science literature often takes an approach based on economic variables such as objectively measureable household and technology characteristics. Increasingly, also subjective variables based on personal belief are considered. On the basis of a survey about the intention to adopt an exemplary novel green consumer technology (intelligent thermostats), we contribute to the clarification of the explanatory power of these two approaches. We first compare the economic model to the belief-based model and second, investigate how beliefs about the green technology are influenced by personal environmental norms and innovativeness. Our evaluation shows that the belief-based model explains considerably higher variance in the intention to adopt. Thereby the perceived hedonic satisfaction, usefulness, habit and facilitating conditions reveal as key determinants. Moreover, environmental norms show lower impact than personal innovativeness. In the discussion we consolidate these findings and point to the risk of omitted variable bias when selectively including belief-based variables in adoption models. Our findings suggest that policies can effectively accelerate the early market diffusion of green consumer technologies by incentivizing retailers to introduce and market such technologies. - Highlights: • Adoption of a green consumer technology (energy-saving thermostats) is evaluated. • Subjective beliefs about the technology show higher impact than objective measures. • Key beliefs relate to pleasure, usefulness, habits and facilitating conditions. • Personal innovativeness is more relevant for adoption than environmental norms. • Isolated use of belief-based adoption determinants can lead to omitted variable bias.

Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

2017-01-01

Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

The economic effects of works councils: channels and conditions. Using secondary data to test a new theoretical model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wigboldus, Jan Ekke; Grift, Yolanda; van den Berg, Annette; Looise, Jan C.

2016-01-01

German studies already have supported the existing positive economic effects of works councils, but failed to explain how these effects are produced. New case study based research from the Netherlands has provided a theory consisting of three channels to create economic impact, also including a set

Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Bo

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

"Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

2017-07-01

To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. S. N. Perera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

One interpretation of the low economic growth in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Isaac, Sánchez Juárez

2011-01-01

Since 1982 the Mexican economy was characterized by the presence of low economic growth rates, this situation has caused a severe reduction in employment and thus the welfare of the Mexican population. Following a kaldorian’s framework of development we assume that the process of stagnation suffered by México, especially in recent years is explained by the lack of dynamism in the domestic manufacturing sector. The latter is attributed mainly to the current economic model, implemented in the l...

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Pedagogical Note on Modeling the Economic Benefit of Emissions Abatement vs. the Economic Harm from Emissions

OpenAIRE

Christopher S. Decker

2012-01-01

The number of undergraduate-level textbooks on environmental economics has increased in recent years, but the textbook treatment of optimal emissions (abatement) varies markedly from textbook to textbook. In particular, there is no consensus as to whether to model the economic “bad” (i.e. emissions) or the economic “good” (abatement). This inconsistency can lead to some needless confusion for students introduced to environmental economics for the first time, particularly those students outsid...

Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eccles Martin P

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the field of implementation research, there is an increased interest in use of theory when designing implementation research studies involving behavior change. In 2003, we initiated a series of five studies to establish a scientific rationale for interventions to translate research findings into clinical practice by exploring the performance of a number of different, commonly used, overlapping behavioral theories and models. We reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of the methods, the performance of the theories, and consider where these methods sit alongside the range of methods for studying healthcare professional behavior change. Methods These were five studies of the theory-based cognitions and clinical behaviors (taking dental radiographs, performing dental restorations, placing fissure sealants, managing upper respiratory tract infections without prescribing antibiotics, managing low back pain without ordering lumbar spine x-rays of random samples of primary care dentists and physicians. Measures were derived for the explanatory theoretical constructs in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, Social Cognitive Theory (SCT, and Illness Representations specified by the Common Sense Self Regulation Model (CSSRM. We constructed self-report measures of two constructs from Learning Theory (LT, a measure of Implementation Intentions (II, and the Precaution Adoption Process. We collected data on theory-based cognitions (explanatory measures and two interim outcome measures (stated behavioral intention and simulated behavior by postal questionnaire survey during the 12-month period to which objective measures of behavior (collected from routine administrative sources were related. Planned analyses explored the predictive value of theories in explaining variance in intention, behavioral simulation and behavior. Results Response rates across the five surveys ranged from 21% to 48%; we achieved the target sample size for three of

Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Eccles, Martin P; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; MacLennan, Graeme; Bonetti, Debbie; Glidewell, Liz; Pitts, Nigel B; Steen, Nick; Thomas, Ruth; Walker, Anne; Johnston, Marie

2012-10-17

In the field of implementation research, there is an increased interest in use of theory when designing implementation research studies involving behavior change. In 2003, we initiated a series of five studies to establish a scientific rationale for interventions to translate research findings into clinical practice by exploring the performance of a number of different, commonly used, overlapping behavioral theories and models. We reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of the methods, the performance of the theories, and consider where these methods sit alongside the range of methods for studying healthcare professional behavior change. These were five studies of the theory-based cognitions and clinical behaviors (taking dental radiographs, performing dental restorations, placing fissure sealants, managing upper respiratory tract infections without prescribing antibiotics, managing low back pain without ordering lumbar spine x-rays) of random samples of primary care dentists and physicians. Measures were derived for the explanatory theoretical constructs in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), and Illness Representations specified by the Common Sense Self Regulation Model (CSSRM). We constructed self-report measures of two constructs from Learning Theory (LT), a measure of Implementation Intentions (II), and the Precaution Adoption Process. We collected data on theory-based cognitions (explanatory measures) and two interim outcome measures (stated behavioral intention and simulated behavior) by postal questionnaire survey during the 12-month period to which objective measures of behavior (collected from routine administrative sources) were related. Planned analyses explored the predictive value of theories in explaining variance in intention, behavioral simulation and behavior. Response rates across the five surveys ranged from 21% to 48%; we achieved the target sample size for three of the five surveys. For the predictor variables

Integrating economic analysis and the science of climate instability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, Darwin C.; Behl, Richard J.

2006-01-01

Scientific understanding of climate change and climate instability has undergone a revolution in the past decade with the discovery of numerous past climate transitions so rapid, and so unlike the expectation of smooth climate changes, that they would have previously been unbelievable to the scientific community. Models commonly used by economists to assess the wisdom of adapting to human-induced climate change, rather than averting it, lack the ability to incorporate this new scientific knowledge. Here, we identify and explain the nature of recent scientific advances, and describe the key ways in which failure to reflect new knowledge in economic analysis skews the results of that analysis. This includes the understanding that economic optimization models reliant on convexity are inherently unable to determine an 'optimal' policy solution. It is incumbent on economists to understand and to incorporate the new science in their models, and on climatologists and other scientists to understand the basis of economic models so that they can assist in this essential effort. (author)

Data to support "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations & Biological Condition"

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Spreadsheets are included here to support the manuscript "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition". This...

The Role of Secondary Education in Explaining Competitiveness

Science.gov (United States)

Baumann, Chris; Winzar, Hume

2016-01-01

The literature establishes that education drives economic performance, but the extent that education is associated with a country's competitiveness is empirically untested. Our study analyses Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data from 63 countries to ascertain education's role in explaining the competitiveness of a country.…

HUMAN CAPITAL: CAUSE AND EFFECT OF THE ECONOMIC GROWTH. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

OpenAIRE

NEAGU OLIMPIA

2013-01-01

From the birth of the human capital theory, economists were interested to find evidences showing the impact of the human capital on the economic output, discussing and debating more or less the effect of economic growth on the accumulation of human capital in the economy and the association between education and health. The paper aims to test several econometric models to explain the relationship between human capital and economic output. Using World Bank data, 17 countries with the fastest e...

Practical Validation of Economic Efficiency Modelling Method for Multi-Boiler Heating System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejs Jurenoks

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In up-to-date conditions information technology is frequently associated with the modelling process, using computer technology as well as information networks. Statistical modelling is one of the most widespread methods of research of economic systems. The selection of methods of modelling of the economic systems depends on a great number of conditions of the researched system. Modelling is frequently associated with the factor of uncertainty (or risk, who’s description goes outside the confines of the traditional statistical modelling, which, in its turn, complicates the modelling which, in its turn, complicates the modelling process. This article describes the modelling process of assessing the economic efficiency of a multi-boiler adaptive heating system in real-time systems which allows for dynamic change in the operation scenarios of system service installations while enhancing the economic efficiency of the system in consideration.

Logistic map with memory from economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2017-01-01

A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

Modeling decisions from experience: How models with a set of parameters for aggregate choices explain individual choices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neha Sharma

2017-10-01

Full Text Available One of the paradigms (called “sampling paradigm” in judgment and decision-making involves decision-makers sample information before making a final consequential choice. In the sampling paradigm, certain computational models have been proposed where a set of single or distribution parameters is calibrated to the choice proportions of a group of participants (aggregate and hierarchical models. However, currently little is known on how aggregate and hierarchical models would account for choices made by individual participants in the sampling paradigm. In this paper, we test the ability of aggregate and hierarchical models to explain choices made by individual participants. Several models, Ensemble, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT, Best Estimation and Simulation Techniques (BEAST, Natural-Mean Heuristic (NMH, and Instance-Based Learning (IBL, had their parameters calibrated to individual choices in a large dataset involving the sampling paradigm. Later, these models were generalized to two large datasets in the sampling paradigm. Results revealed that the aggregate models (like CPT and IBL accounted for individual choices better than hierarchical models (like Ensemble and BEAST upon generalization to problems that were like those encountered during calibration. Furthermore, the CPT model, which relies on differential valuing of gains and losses, respectively, performed better than other models during calibration and generalization on datasets with similar set of problems. The IBL model, relying on recency and frequency of sampled information, and the NMH model, relying on frequency of sampled information, performed better than other models during generalization to a challenging dataset. Sequential analyses of results from different models showed how these models accounted for transitions from the last sample to final choice in human data. We highlight the implications of using aggregate and hierarchical models in explaining individual choices

Explaining neural signals in human visual cortex with an associative learning model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Jiefeng; Schmajuk, Nestor; Egner, Tobias

2012-08-01

"Predictive coding" models posit a key role for associative learning in visual cognition, viewing perceptual inference as a process of matching (learned) top-down predictions (or expectations) against bottom-up sensory evidence. At the neural level, these models propose that each region along the visual processing hierarchy entails one set of processing units encoding predictions of bottom-up input, and another set computing mismatches (prediction error or surprise) between predictions and evidence. This contrasts with traditional views of visual neurons operating purely as bottom-up feature detectors. In support of the predictive coding hypothesis, a recent human neuroimaging study (Egner, Monti, & Summerfield, 2010) showed that neural population responses to expected and unexpected face and house stimuli in the "fusiform face area" (FFA) could be well-described as a summation of hypothetical face-expectation and -surprise signals, but not by feature detector responses. Here, we used computer simulations to test whether these imaging data could be formally explained within the broader framework of a mathematical neural network model of associative learning (Schmajuk, Gray, & Lam, 1996). Results show that FFA responses could be fit very closely by model variables coding for conditional predictions (and their violations) of stimuli that unconditionally activate the FFA. These data document that neural population signals in the ventral visual stream that deviate from classic feature detection responses can formally be explained by associative prediction and surprise signals.

Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pishchulina E.S.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

Immediate survival focus: synthesizing life history theory and dual process models to explain substance use.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, George B; Hardesty, Patrick

2012-01-01

Researchers have recently applied evolutionary life history theory to the understanding of behaviors often conceived of as prosocial or antisocial. In addition, researchers have applied cognitive science to the understanding of substance use and used dual process models, where explicit cognitive processes are modeled as relatively distinct from implicit cognitive processes, to explain and predict substance use behaviors. In this paper we synthesized these two theoretical perspectives to produce an adaptive and cognitive framework for explaining substance use. We contend that this framework provides new insights into the nature of substance use that may be valuable for both clinicians and researchers.

Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

1998-01-01

This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

Indirect economic effects of a rail link along the afsluitdijk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Romp, W.E.; Oosterhaven, J.

2002-01-01

New transport infrastructure has a myriad of short and long run effects. The effects on population and economic activity are most difficult to estimate. This paper introduces three different models to estimate the impacts of new infrastructure on labour supply and demand, and carefully explains how

Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darya I. Ushkalova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

Does the internet generate economic growth, international trade, or both?

OpenAIRE

Meijers, Huub

2012-01-01

Recent cross country panel data studies find a positive impact of internet use on economic growth and a positive impact of internet use on trade. The present study challenges the first finding by showing that internet use does not explain economic growth directly in a fully specified growth model. In particular openness to international trade variables seems to be highly correlated with internet use and the findings in the literature that internet use causes trade is confirmed here, suggestin...

Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Science.gov (United States)

Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

2003-01-01

Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Bin Zhang

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

1996-12-31

The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

Economic growth and its determinants in countries in transitio

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Kestrim Avdimetaj

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Main purpose of this scientific research is to analyze the countries in transition; in particular, through this research we will explain the economic growth and its determinants in the countries in transition. Referring to the fact that many ex-communist countries were faced with a transition from a socialist economic system into the economic system of free market, and this phase of transformation is also known as transition, we will analyze this phase in details. The materials contained in this research are based on data taken directly from Financial Institutions, European Central Bank, as well as many other relevant prestigious institutions of countries in transition. The first section of this research begins with the introduction, presenting broadly the economic growth in countries in transition and the manner of their transformation, as well as the identification of hypothesis contained in this research. The second section contains the review of the literature, where we have cited parts from many authors who conducted studies in this broadly and productive field. In the third section are explained the mathematical formulas, that specify the econometric model, as well as the method of assessment, i.e. multiple regression analysis. Then, through the calculations of STATA, we will substitute the values of variables obtained in formula and test them through the selected model. In the last section we will interpret the outcomes derived from calculations in the program, supporting or dismissing hypothesis presented in this scientific research. This scientific research is limited, because many other important variables impacting the economic growth, such as instruments of monetary and fiscal policy, economic freedom, etc., have not been incorporated.

Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

2004-08-01

We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

Nuclear power investment risk economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

1985-12-01

This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

2009-03-01

A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

Science.gov (United States)

Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2016-07-01

Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

1979-10-01

This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

Multitemporal Modelling of Socio-Economic Wildfire Drivers in Central Spain between the 1980s and the 2000s: Comparing Generalized Linear Models to Machine Learning Algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Vilar, Lara; Gómez, Israel; Martínez-Vega, Javier; Echavarría, Pilar; Riaño, David; Martín, M Pilar

2016-01-01

The socio-economic factors are of key importance during all phases of wildfire management that include prevention, suppression and restoration. However, modeling these factors, at the proper spatial and temporal scale to understand fire regimes is still challenging. This study analyses socio-economic drivers of wildfire occurrence in central Spain. This site represents a good example of how human activities play a key role over wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and machine learning Maximum Entropy models (Maxent) predicted wildfire occurrence in the 1980s and also in the 2000s to identify changes between each period in the socio-economic drivers affecting wildfire occurrence. GLM base their estimation on wildfire presence-absence observations whereas Maxent on wildfire presence-only. According to indicators like sensitivity or commission error Maxent outperformed GLM in both periods. It achieved a sensitivity of 38.9% and a commission error of 43.9% for the 1980s, and 67.3% and 17.9% for the 2000s. Instead, GLM obtained 23.33, 64.97, 9.41 and 18.34%, respectively. However GLM performed steadier than Maxent in terms of the overall fit. Both models explained wildfires from predictors such as population density and Wildland Urban Interface (WUI), but differed in their relative contribution. As a result of the urban sprawl and an abandonment of rural areas, predictors like WUI and distance to roads increased their contribution to both models in the 2000s, whereas Forest-Grassland Interface (FGI) influence decreased. This study demonstrates that human component can be modelled with a spatio-temporal dimension to integrate it into wildfire risk assessment.

An economic analysis of life expectancy by gender with application to the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Leung, Michael C M; Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Junsen

2004-07-01

This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States.

Explaining the wage gap : Heckscher-Ohlin, economic geography and services availability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, J.; Vaal, A. de

2000-01-01

In the debate on globalisation and wage inequality Heckscher-Ohlin, economic geography and services availability theory has featured prominently. However, a neglected mechanism by which globalisation affects labour market outcomes is through the in-creased tradability of producer services. By

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

How the Human Capital Model Explains Why the Gender Wage Gap Narrowed

OpenAIRE

Polachek, Solomon W.

2004-01-01

This paper explores secular changes in women?s pay relative to men?s pay. It shows how the human capital model predicts a smaller gender wage gap as male-female lifetime work expectations become more similar. The model explains why relative female wages rose almost unabated from 1890 to the early-1990s in the United States (with the exception of about 1940-1980), and why this relative wage growth tapered off since 1993. In addition to the US, the paper presents evidence from nine other countr...

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zining Yang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at both macro and micro levels. First, a new political capacity measurement is used; and the system dynamics model is validated with the latest data. Second, the endogenous attributes are fused with non-cooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, macro and micro levels are connected with policy levers of political capacity and political instability by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This paper also explores the agent-based model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. This model demonstrates micro level human agency can act, react and interact, thus driving macro level dynamics, while macro structures provide political, social and economic environments that constrain or incentivize micro level human behavior.

MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

1977-10-01

This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

2010-07-01

We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

Agent-Based and Macroscopic Modeling of the Complex Socio-Economic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejus Kononovičius

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The focus of this contribution is the correspondence between collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Currently there is a wide selection of papers proposing various models for the both collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Yet the papers directly relating these two concepts are still quite rare. By studying this correspondence we discuss a cutting edge approach to the modeling of complex socio-economic systems. Design/methodology/approach – The collective behavior is often modeled using stochastic and ordinary calculus, while the inter-individual interactions are modeled using agent-based models. In order to obtain the ideal model, one should start from these frameworks and build a bridge to reach another. This is a formidable task, if we consider the top-down approach, namely starting from the collective behavior and moving towards inter-individual interactions. The bottom-up approach also fails, if complex inter-individual interaction models are considered, yet in this case we can start with simple models and increase the complexity as needed. Findings – The bottom-up approach, considering simple agent-based herding model as a model for the inter-individual interactions, allows us to derive certain macroscopic models of the complex socio-economic systems from the agent-based perspective. This provides interesting insights into the collective behavior patterns observed in the complex socio-economic systems. Research limitations/implications –The simplicity of the agent-based herding model might be considered to be somewhat limiting. Yet this simplicity implies that the model is highly universal. It reproduces universal features of social behavior and also can be further extended to fit different socio-economic scenarios. Practical implications – Insights provided in this contribution might be used to modify existing

The Model of Optimum Economic Growth with the Induced Scientific-Technological Progress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dilenko Viktor A.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available On the basis of the economic dynamics of the Harrod – Domar model, a model of optimum economic growth in line with the induced scientific-technological progress (STP has been built. In order to reflect the induced scientific-technological progress, with this model is proposed to further allocate the income element that is specially used for the investment of innovation activity, implementation of which reduces the capital intensity in development of the discussed economy. For the simplest way of presenting an economic mechanism for the investment of induced STP, analytical solutions of an appropriate task in optimum management have been obtained. Studying these decisions allowed to reveal the characteristics of the impact of parameters of scientific-technological progress and the analyzed economic system on choosing the best trajectory for its evolution. Possible directions for further developing the results presented can be considered the tasks in building and analyzing models of optimum economic growth that implement different investment options for the induced STP, as well as the models in which this investment mechanism is not exogenouslyed, but rather the result of the corresponding economic-mathematical research.

Immediate Survival Focus: Synthesizing Life History Theory and Dual Process Models to Explain Substance Use

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George B. Richardson

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Researchers have recently applied evolutionary life history theory to the understanding of behaviors often conceived of as prosocial or antisocial. In addition, researchers have applied cognitive science to the understanding of substance use and used dual process models, where explicit cognitive processes are modeled as relatively distinct from implicit cognitive processes, to explain and predict substance use behaviors. In this paper we synthesized these two theoretical perspectives to produce an adaptive and cognitive framework for explaining substance use. We contend that this framework provides new insights into the nature of substance use that may be valuable for both clinicians and researchers.

An Accounting Method for Economic Growth

OpenAIRE

Hongchun Zhao

2012-01-01

As Chari et al. (2007) indicate, many growth theories explaining frictions in real economies are equivalent to a competitive economy, with some exogenous taxes. Using this idea, I developed an accounting method for identifying fundamental causes of economic growth. A two-sector neoclassical growth model with taxes is used as a prototype economy, and its equilibrium conditions define wedges. These wedges endogenously determine the long run growth rate, which is exogenous and not correlated wit...

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050. Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schmitz, Christoph [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); van Meijl, Hans [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Kyle, G. Page [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Nelson, Gerald C. [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Fujimori, Shinichiro [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan); Gurgel, Angelo [Sao Paulo School of Economics (EESP-FGV) (Brazil); Havlik, Petr [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Heyhoe, Edwina [Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), Canberra (Australia); Mason d' Croz, Daniel [International Food Policy Research Inst. (IFPRI), Washington, DC (United States); Popp, Alexander [Potsdam Inst. Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg (Germany); Sands, Ronald [U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA), Washington, DC (United States); Tabeau, Andrzej [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome (Italy); von Lampe, Martin [Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Paris (France); Wise, Marshall A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Blanc, Elodie [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Hasegawa, Tomoko [National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kavallari, Aikaterini [Wageningen Univ. and Research Center, Hague (Netherlands); Valin, Hugo [International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)

2013-12-10

Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research questions: (1) How much cropland will be used under different socioeconomic and climate change scenarios? (2) How can differences in model results be explained? The comparison includes four partial and six general equilibrium models that differ in how they model land supply and amount of potentially available land. We analyze results of two different socioeconomic scenarios and three climate scenarios (one with constant climate). Most models (7 out of 10) project an increase of cropland of 10–25% by 2050 compared to 2005 (under constant climate), but one model projects a decrease. Pasture land expands in some models, which increase the treat on natural vegetation further. Across all models most of the cropland expansion takes place in South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In general, the strongest differences in model results are related to differences in the costs of land expansion, the endogenous productivity responses, and the assumptions about potential cropland.

Economic Crisis and Marital Problems in Turkey: Testing the Family Stress Model

Science.gov (United States)

Aytac, Isik A.; Rankin, Bruce H.

2009-01-01

This paper applied the family stress model to the case of Turkey in the wake of the 2001 economic crisis. Using structural equation modeling and a nationally representative urban sample of 711 married women and 490 married men, we tested whether economic hardship and the associated family economic strain on families resulted in greater marital…

Modeling and simulation of economic processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Brumar

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

The physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis and assessment for NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Jiming

1992-01-01

A set physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis referring to international general sub-item and account of investment and constant money levelized model and combining current economic analysis method in China for nuclear power plant was established. The model can be used in economic analysis not only for nuclear power plant but also for coal-fired power plant and can satisfy demand of doing economic analysis and assessment for nuclear power plant and conventional power plant

Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

Deep Convolutional Neural Networks Outperform Feature-Based But Not Categorical Models in Explaining Object Similarity Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Jozwik, Kamila M.; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus; Storrs, Katherine R.; Mur, Marieke

2017-01-01

Recent advances in Deep convolutional Neural Networks (DNNs) have enabled unprecedentedly accurate computational models of brain representations, and present an exciting opportunity to model diverse cognitive functions. State-of-the-art DNNs achieve human-level performance on object categorisation, but it is unclear how well they capture human behavior on complex cognitive tasks. Recent reports suggest that DNNs can explain significant variance in one such task, judging object similarity. Here, we extend these findings by replicating them for a rich set of object images, comparing performance across layers within two DNNs of different depths, and examining how the DNNs’ performance compares to that of non-computational “conceptual” models. Human observers performed similarity judgments for a set of 92 images of real-world objects. Representations of the same images were obtained in each of the layers of two DNNs of different depths (8-layer AlexNet and 16-layer VGG-16). To create conceptual models, other human observers generated visual-feature labels (e.g., “eye”) and category labels (e.g., “animal”) for the same image set. Feature labels were divided into parts, colors, textures and contours, while category labels were divided into subordinate, basic, and superordinate categories. We fitted models derived from the features, categories, and from each layer of each DNN to the similarity judgments, using representational similarity analysis to evaluate model performance. In both DNNs, similarity within the last layer explains most of the explainable variance in human similarity judgments. The last layer outperforms almost all feature-based models. Late and mid-level layers outperform some but not all feature-based models. Importantly, categorical models predict similarity judgments significantly better than any DNN layer. Our results provide further evidence for commonalities between DNNs and brain representations. Models derived from visual features

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lamont, A.

2001-03-01

This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

2014-10-15

Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

A model to explain human voice production

Science.gov (United States)

Vilas Bôas, C. S. N.; Gobara, S. T.

2018-05-01

This article presents a device constructed with low-cost material to demonstrate and explain voice production. It also provides a contextualized, interdisciplinary approach to introduce the study of sound waves.

Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

APPLICATIONS OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN UNIVERSITY LIFE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GEORGE NICULESCU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In the first part of the article I have dealt with the role and place of behavioral economics in the economic sciences. Classical economic theories are criticized by the behavioral economy. We think we are rational beings and that we make logical decisions based on the information we have at our disposal. In fact, we have our own cognitive limitations that can lead to hasty decisions or confusing judgments; the real individual is a complex person, with actions that result in failures and incomprehensible behaviors for the economics Behavioral economics is trying to explain why individuals often make irrational choices, and why decisions they take do not follow exactly the patterns predicted by classical and neoclassical economic models. This paper is trying to assess the individual behavior involved in the decision making process in the university space. This article describes aloso a series of experiments on behavioral economics. The experiments are from university life and contest the hypothesis of the perfectly rational person's existence in making decisions and the neoclassical economic theories and models that are based only on the premise of the existence of homo oeconomicus rationalis. Observations and experiments conducted with students at Constantin Brancusi University in Târgu-Jiu are relevant in challenging the hypothesis of perfect rationality, preference stability, perfect information and market efficiency. The research method used in this article is the experiment. Study results are useful for academic management.

Modeling as an Anchoring Scientific Practice for Explaining Friction Phenomena

Science.gov (United States)

Neilson, Drew; Campbell, Todd

2017-12-01

Through examining the day-to-day work of scientists, researchers in science studies have revealed how models are a central sense-making practice of scientists as they construct and critique explanations about how the universe works. Additionally, they allow predictions to be made using the tenets of the model. Given this, alongside research suggesting that engaging students in developing and using models can have a positive effect on learning in science classrooms, the recent national standards documents in science education have identified developing and using models as an important practice students should engage in as they apply and refine their ideas with peers and teachers in explaining phenomena or solving problems in classrooms. This article details how students can be engaged in developing and using models to help them make sense of friction phenomena in a high school conceptual physics classroom in ways that align with visions for teaching and learning outlined in the Next Generation Science Standards. This particular unit has been refined over several years to build on what was initially an inquiry-based unit we have described previously. In this latest iteration of the friction unit, students developed and refined models through engaging in small group and whole class discussions and investigations.

Economic Cognitions Among Older Adults: Parental Socialization Predicts Financial Planning for Retirement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco Palaci

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Drawing on the model on financial planning for retirement (FPR, the aim of this work is to explore how parental economic socialization both directly and indirectly affects FPR through the mediation of financial literacy, financial planning decisions and financial management. Data from a sample of 280 participants aged between 45 and 63 years were used. The results show that parental economic socialization directly and indirectly influences FPR. Moreover, parental economic behavior acts as a positive model for the development of financial literacy and skills and for decisions about FPR. All the variables increased the explained variance of FPR. Lastly, we discuss the process by which parental economic socialization is positively related to financial literacy and skills that impact on FPR, indicating some implications and future lines of research.

Economic Cognitions Among Older Adults: Parental Socialization Predicts Financial Planning for Retirement.

Science.gov (United States)

Palaci, Francisco; Jiménez, Irene; Topa, Gabriela

2017-01-01

Drawing on the model on financial planning for retirement (FPR), the aim of this work is to explore how parental economic socialization both directly and indirectly affects FPR through the mediation of financial literacy, financial planning decisions and financial management. Data from a sample of 280 participants aged between 45 and 63 years were used. The results show that parental economic socialization directly and indirectly influences FPR. Moreover, parental economic behavior acts as a positive model for the development of financial literacy and skills and for decisions about FPR. All the variables increased the explained variance of FPR. Lastly, we discuss the process by which parental economic socialization is positively related to financial literacy and skills that impact on FPR, indicating some implications and future lines of research.

Explaining the DAMPE e+e- excess using the Higgs triplet model with a vector dark matter

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chuan-Hung; Chiang, Cheng-Wei; Nomura, Takaaki

2018-03-01

We explain the e+e- excess observed by the DAMPE Collaboration using a dark matter model based upon the Higgs triplet model and an additional hidden S U (2 )X gauge symmetry. Two of the S U (2 )X gauge bosons are stable due to a residual discrete symmetry and serve as the dark matter candidate. We search the parameter space for regions that can explain the observed relic abundance, and compute the flux of e+e- coming from a nearby dark matter subhalo. With the inclusion of background cosmic rays, we show that the model can render a good fit to the entire energy spectrum covering the AMS-02, Fermi-LAT, CALET and DAMPE data.

Complex Dynamics in Nonequilibrium Economics and Chemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Kehong

Complex dynamics provides a new approach in dealing with economic complexity. We study interactively the empirical and theoretical aspects of business cycles. The way of exploring complexity is similar to that in the study of an oscillatory chemical system (BZ system)--a model for modeling complex behavior. We contribute in simulating qualitatively the complex periodic patterns observed from the controlled BZ experiments to narrow the gap between modeling and experiment. The gap between theory and reality is much wider in economics, which involves studies of human expectations and decisions, the essential difference from natural sciences. Our empirical and theoretical studies make substantial progress in closing this gap. With the help from the new development in nonequilibrium physics, i.e., the complex spectral theory, we advance our technique in detecting characteristic time scales from empirical economic data. We obtain correlation resonances, which give oscillating modes with decays for correlation decomposition, from different time series including S&P 500, M2, crude oil spot prices, and GNP. The time scales found are strikingly compatible with business experiences and other studies in business cycles. They reveal the non-Markovian nature of coherent markets. The resonances enhance the evidence of economic chaos obtained by using other tests. The evolving multi-humped distributions produced by the moving-time -window technique reveal the nonequilibrium nature of economic behavior. They reproduce the American economic history of booms and busts. The studies seem to provide a way out of the debate on chaos versus noise and unify the cyclical and stochastic approaches in explaining business fluctuations. Based on these findings and new expectation formulation, we construct a business cycle model which gives qualitatively compatible patterns to those found empirically. The soft-bouncing oscillator model provides a better alternative than the harmonic oscillator

Explaining Macroeconomic and Term Structure Dynamics Jointly in a Non-linear DSGE Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreasen, Martin Møller

This paper shows how a standard DSGE model can be extended to reproduce the dynamics in the 10 year yield curve for the post-war US economy with a similar degree of precision as in reduced form term structure models. At the same time, we are able to reproduce the dynamics of four key macro...... variables almost perfectly. Our extension of a standard DSGE model is to introduce three non-stationary shocks which allow us to explain interest rates with medium and long maturities without distorting the dynamics of the macroeconomy....

Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

2001-01-01

This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

Science.gov (United States)

Ormerod, Paul

2006-10-01

The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

1986-01-01

Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

Factors that Explain the Principal-Agent Relationship in Six Companies of the City of Manizales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tania Mackenzie Torres

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This study aims to determine the factors that explain the relationship between principal and agent in six institutions from different economic sectors (education, services, metallurgy, solidarity and financial economy in the city of Manizales. The study is based on the conceptual foundations of the neo-institutional current, which are framed in neoliberal and microeconomic models interpreted in the light of agency theory. As research strategy, the methodology consists of a multiple case study, which focuses its interest on a number of cases where each case has its own identity. The factors that determine the principal-agent relationship in these six institutions are explained by contract, incentives and controls; motivational factors, both intrinsic and extrinsic, are also identified.

An Idealized Cognitive Model Analysis of Metaphors in American Economic News Report

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Yang

2018-03-01

On the basis of the theoretical framework of Lakoff’s Conceptual Metaphor, the paper researches into the cognitive model of conceptual metaphors in American Economic News Reports. Moreover, the paper tries to analyze economic discourse by the application of Idealized Cognitive Model of its metaphorical thinking combined with cultural model and reflect the ideology of the media. It aims to help English learners ponder the implied meaning the economic news reports conveyed and take a new look at metaphors between the lines.

Journalism and Explaining News Content

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albæk, E.; Skovsgaard, M.; de Vreese, C.H.; Nussbaum, J.F.

Three models are presented to explain variation in news content. In the first model the explanation is based on the individual journalist, in the second model on the professional journalist, and in the third model on the organized journalist. The individual journalist model focuses on how the

Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

2012-01-01

There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

1994-01-01

An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov (United States)

Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

2018-05-01

To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

2005-01-01

.... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

A mean-field game economic growth model

KAUST Repository

Gomes, Diogo A.; Lafleche, Laurent; Nurbekyan, Levon

2016-01-01

Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks

Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kruseman, G.

2000-01-01

This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

A non-linear model of economic production processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivona Milić Beran

2015-10-01

Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?

Science.gov (United States)

Bermejo, Inigo; Tappenden, Paul; Youn, Ji-Hee

2017-11-01

Health economic evaluation is a framework for the comparative analysis of the incremental health gains and costs associated with competing decision alternatives. The process of developing health economic models is usually complex, financially expensive and time-consuming. For these reasons, model development is sometimes based on previous model-based analyses; this endeavour is usually referred to as model replication. Such model replication activity may involve the comprehensive reproduction of an existing model or 'borrowing' all or part of a previously developed model structure. Generally speaking, the replication of an existing model may require substantially less effort than developing a new de novo model by bypassing, or undertaking in only a perfunctory manner, certain aspects of model development such as the development of a complete conceptual model and/or comprehensive literature searching for model parameters. A further motivation for model replication may be to draw on the credibility or prestige of previous analyses that have been published and/or used to inform decision making. The acceptability and appropriateness of replicating models depends on the decision-making context: there exists a trade-off between the 'savings' afforded by model replication and the potential 'costs' associated with reduced model credibility due to the omission of certain stages of model development. This paper provides an overview of the different levels of, and motivations for, replicating health economic models, and discusses the advantages, disadvantages and caveats associated with this type of modelling activity. Irrespective of whether replicated models should be considered appropriate or not, complete replicability is generally accepted as a desirable property of health economic models, as reflected in critical appraisal checklists and good practice guidelines. To this end, the feasibility of comprehensive model replication is explored empirically across a small

Institutions, Technological Change and Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Corderí Novoa

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Theories of economic growth try to explain variations in per capita income across countries by differences in capital accumulation and productivity. However, many scholars consider that integrating institutions into economic theory and economic history is an essential step in improving explanations of why some societies are richer than others. This paper develops the empirical and theoretical case that differences in institutions are the fundamental cause of differences in technological change (productivity, hence in economic growth. First, I give a definition of institutions and how they influence economic performance, from a New Institutional Economics point of view. Then, I introduce the theoretical framework based on the economics of ideas and endogenous growth models. Finally, I argue that R&D expenditures -a proxy for technological change- will vary across countries depending on some measures of institutional quality. In the end, this paper finds that stronger institutions (measured by an aggregate of institutional quality encourage greater R&D expenditures. At a disaggregate level, the rule of law is positively correlated and the regulatory burden is negatively correlated with R&D expenditures. Human capital level (measured by the tertiary and primary school enrolment rates has also a significant positive impact in R&D expenditures.

The current Russian model of social development, and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V V Paramonov

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Although the Article 7 of the Constitution of Russia adopted in 1993 defines the country as a social state, the contemporary social and economic situation is significantly different from this declaration. The author considers the current situation focusing on the foundations of the welfare state. The indicators of social inequality and stratification that allow to identify the country as a social state prove the widening gap between the rich and poor. In recent years, nothing has been done to achieve the more equitable distribution of income and national wealth, which led to the further growth of social inequality exceeding the global indices. The author believes that the high level of social inequality negatively affects the economic growth. Based on the studies of Russian scientists he concludes that equal distribution of income provides higher rates of economic growth and prosperity of the country. The modified theory of the factors of production explains this interconnection, and adds a few more factors, including such a specific resource as sales market, to three factors introduced by J.B. Say at the beginning of the XIX century. The huge social inequality and, consequently, a significant number of the poor deprive the country of such an important resource. To change the situation, the author proposes to return to the progressive tax scale and introduce the zero rate of income tax for the poorest groups in order to create prerequisites for the growth of consumer demand under the economic crisis.

Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

Science.gov (United States)

Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

2018-05-14

Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Organizations, individualism and economic theory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brouwer, M.

2012-01-01

Most economic theory is based on the assumption that economies grow in a linear fashion. Recessions, depressions and (financial) crises are explained by policy mistakes. However, economic development has historically been uneven, and this state of affairs continues today. This book argues that

The role of social factors in explaining crime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Siti Nur Zahara HAMZAH

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Utilizing Malaysia data from 1973 to 2008, the study reveals that crime can be influenced by population, fertility, unemployment, and GDP in either the long-run or short-run period. This study also further analysed beyond sample estimations of the variables involved and found that although violent crime can be explained in the short-run only from the VECM analysis, it is found to be explained by other explanatory variables in the long-run of beyond sample for at least 50 years ahead. It is important for policy makers to focus in both social structure and economic conditions to help prevent crime in the long-run.

Economics and econophysics in the era of Big Data

Science.gov (United States)

Cheong, Siew Ann

2016-12-01

There is an undeniable disconnect between theory-heavy economics and the real world, and some cross polination of ideas with econophysics, which is more balanced between data and models, might help economics along the way to become a truly scientific enterprise. With the coming of the era of Big Data, this transformation of economics into a data-driven science is becoming more urgent. In this article, I use the story of Kepler's discovery of his three laws of planetary motion to enlarge the framework of the scientific approach, from one that focuses on experimental sciences, to one that accommodates observational sciences, and further to one that embraces data mining and machine learning. I distinguish between the ontological values of Kepler's Laws vis-a-vis Newton's Laws, and argue that the latter is more fundamental because it is able to explain the former. I then argue that the fundamental laws of economics lie not in mathematical equations, but in models of adaptive economic agents. With this shift in mind set, it becomes possible to think about how interactions between agents can lead to the emergence of multiple stable states and critical transitions, and complex adaptive policies and regulations that might actually work in the real world. Finally, I discuss how Big Data, exploratory agent-based modeling, and predictive agent-based modeling can come together in a unified framework to make economics a true science.

Privatization in economic theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drakić Maja

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In reality privatization has never occurred according to the handbook rules of ordinary market transactions. Not even in advanced market economies can privatization transactions be described by the Walrasian or Arrowian, or Leontiefian equilibrium models, or by the equilibrium models of the game theory. In these economies transactions of privatization take place in a fairly organic way – which means that those are driven by the dominance of private property rights and in a market economy. But despite this fact Western privatization also some peculiar features as compared to ordinary company takeovers, since the state as the seller may pursue non – economic goals. Changes in the dominant form of property change positions and status of many individuals and groups in the society. That’s why privatization can even less be explained by ordinary market mechanisms in transition countries where privatizing state-owned property have happened in a mass scale and where markets and private property rights weren't established at the time process of privatization began. In this paper I’ll discuss and analyze the phenomenon of privatization in context of different economic theories arguing that empirical results go in favor of the public choice theory (Buchanan, 1978, theory of "economic constitution" (Brennan and Buchanan 1985, (Buchanan and Tullock, 1989, and theory of "collective action" (Olson, 1982. These theories argues that transition from one economic system into another, for example transition from collectivistic, socialistic system into capitalism and free market economy with dominant private property, will not happen through isolated changes of only few economic institutions, no matter how deep that changes would be. In other words privatization can not give results if it's not followed by comprehensive change of economic system because privatized companied wouldn't be able to operate in old environment.

Financial history and financial economics

OpenAIRE

Turner, John D.

2014-01-01

This essay looks at the bidirectional relationship between financial history and financial economics. It begins by giving a brief history of financial economics by outlining the main topics of interest to financial economists. It then documents and explains the increasing influence of financial economics upon financial history, and warns of the dangers of applying financial economics unthinkingly to the study of financial history. The essay proceeds to highlight the many insights that financi...

Economic Models of OPEC Behaviour and the Role of Saudi Arabia

OpenAIRE

Nourah A. Al-Yousef

1998-01-01

Previous studies of OPEC have suggested ways of explaining the behaviour of OPEC as a group. The specific role of Saudi Arabia in the market and within OPEC has received attention from some authors. This study analyses the role of Saudi Arabia in these models and tries to find how much they explain the role of Saudi Arabia in the period from 1973 to the present. Models of OPEC behaviour are divided into four sets. The first set of models does not address the role of Saudi Arabia; they include...

Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

1990-01-01

The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

OpenAIRE

Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

2006-01-01

Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

Quantifying the impacts of socio-economic factors on air quality in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Juanjuan; Chen, Shengbin; Wang Hua; Ren Yin; Du Ke; Xu Weihua; Zheng Hua; Jiang Bo

2012-01-01

Socio-economic factors have significant influences on air quality and are commonly used to guide environmental planning and management. Based on data from 85 long-term daily monitoring cities in China, air quality as evaluated by AOFDAQ-A (Annual Occurrence Frequency of Daily Air Quality above Level III), was correlated to socio-economic variable groups of urbanization, pollution and environmental treatment by variation partitioning and hierarchical partitioning methods. We found: (1) the three groups explained 43.5% of the variance in AOFDAQ-A; (2) the contribution of “environmental investment” to AOFDAQ-A shown a time lag effect; (3) “population in mining sector” and “coverage of green space in built-up area” were respectively the most significant negative and positive explanatory socio-economic variables; (4) using eight largest contributing individual factors, a linear model to predict variance in AOFDAQ-A was constructed. Results from our study provide a valuable reference for the management and control of air quality in Chinese cities. - Highlights: ► Urban air quality as evaluated by AOFDAQ-A was correlated to socio-economic variable groups. ► Variable groups explained 43.5% of the variance in AOFDAQ-A. ► “Coverage of green space in built-up area” was the most significant positive variable. ► A linear model to predict variance in AOFDAQ-A was constructed. ► Contributions of 21 socio-economic variables to AOFDAQ-A was quantified. - Socio-economic variable groups of urbanization, pollution and environmental treatment explained 43.5% of the variance in air quality of Chinese cities.

Economic Determinants of Academic Failure and School Desertion in the Guatemala Highlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Carvajal, Manuel J.; And Others

1993-01-01

Explores, from an economic perspective, elementary school system adequacy in the rural, indigenous Guatemalan highlands. Estimates least-squares coefficients and elasticities separately for academic failure and school abandonment for each of four indigenous groups. The model explains academic failure better than school desertion. A national policy…

Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

2010-01-01

Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

A Framework for Developing the Structure of Public Health Economic Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Squires, Hazel; Chilcott, James; Akehurst, Ronald; Burr, Jennifer; Kelly, Michael P

2016-01-01

A conceptual modeling framework is a methodology that assists modelers through the process of developing a model structure. Public health interventions tend to operate in dynamically complex systems. Modeling public health interventions requires broader considerations than clinical ones. Inappropriately simple models may lead to poor validity and credibility, resulting in suboptimal allocation of resources. This article presents the first conceptual modeling framework for public health economic evaluation. The framework presented here was informed by literature reviews of the key challenges in public health economic modeling and existing conceptual modeling frameworks; qualitative research to understand the experiences of modelers when developing public health economic models; and piloting a draft version of the framework. The conceptual modeling framework comprises four key principles of good practice and a proposed methodology. The key principles are that 1) a systems approach to modeling should be taken; 2) a documented understanding of the problem is imperative before and alongside developing and justifying the model structure; 3) strong communication with stakeholders and members of the team throughout model development is essential; and 4) a systematic consideration of the determinants of health is central to identifying the key impacts of public health interventions. The methodology consists of four phases: phase A, aligning the framework with the decision-making process; phase B, identifying relevant stakeholders; phase C, understanding the problem; and phase D, developing and justifying the model structure. Key areas for further research involve evaluation of the framework in diverse case studies and the development of methods for modeling individual and social behavior. This approach could improve the quality of Public Health economic models, supporting efficient allocation of scarce resources. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics

A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ona Rakauskienė

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

SMS Advertising in India: Is TAM a Robust Model for Explaining Intention?

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Hemant Bamoriya

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This study examined mobile users’ intentions to receive SMS advertising in India using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM as research framework. 242 respondents completed a structured questionnaire; measuring their responses for the TAM’s five constructs viz. perceived utility, perceived ease of use, perceived trust, attitude and intention. Using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM both measurement model and structural model testing was done to analyze the data. Findings indicated that specified TAM model contributed to 81.8% of variance in the intention to receive SMS advertising and was a valid model in explaining the intention to receive SMS advertising. Study further indicated that perceived utility was much better predictor of attitude towards SMS advertising than perceived ease of use and perceived trust. Study suggested marketers that to increase acceptance of SMS advertising they should focus more on increasing utility of SMS ads, so that users would develop positive attitudes towards SMS advertising.

The impact of behavioural economics and finance on retirement ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

These choices may also pose a threat to a member's financial wellbeing in retirement. Behavioural economics and finance helps to explain the choices made by these stakeholders in the retirement industry. The authors explain this concept in the context of industry stakeholders and the unique South African economic and ...

Relationship of suicide rates with climate and economic variables in Europe during 2000-2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Chatzikosta, Isaia; Pastiadis, Konstantinos

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: It is well known that suicidal rates vary considerably among European countries and the reasons for this are unknown, although several theories have been proposed. The effect of economic variables has been extensively studied but not that of climate. METHODS: Data from 29 European...... countries covering the years 2000-2012 and concerning male and female standardized suicidal rates (according to WHO), economic variables (according World Bank) and climate variables were gathered. The statistical analysis included cluster and principal component analysis and categorical regression. RESULTS......: The derived models explained 62.4 % of the variability of male suicidal rates. Economic variables alone explained 26.9 % and climate variables 37.6 %. For females, the respective figures were 41.7, 11.5 and 28.1 %. Male suicides correlated with high unemployment rate in the frame of high growth rate and high...

Ecological-economic modeling for biodiversity management: potential, pitfalls, and prospects

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wätzold, F.; Drechsler, M.; Armstrong, C.W.; Baumgärtner, S.; Grimm, V.; Huth, A.; Perrings, C.; Possingham, H.P.; Shogren, J.F.; Skonhoft, A.; Verboom-Vasiljev, J.; Wissel, C.

2006-01-01

Ecologists and economists both use models to help develop strategies for biodiversity management. The practical use of disciplinary models, however, can be limited because ecological models tend not to address the socioeconomic dimension of biodiversity management, whereas economic models tend to

Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

2017-10-01

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, E J; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, A A; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

2018-01-01

Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors.

Economic development and road traffic fatalities in Russia: analysis of federal regions 2004-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Huan; Paichadze, Nino; Hyder, Adnan A; Bishai, David

2015-12-01

The relationship between economic development and road safety at sub-national level has not been well established. This study aims to assess the relationships between economic growth (measured by gross regional product (GRP)) and road traffic fatalities (RTFs) and crash fatality ratio (CFR) at sub-national level in Russia. We used published secondary data on annual RTFs and CFR obtained from the traffic police and socioeconomic development indicators from the statistics department for each Russian federal region (referred to in Russia as "subject") for 2004-2011. We used multivariate fixed effects models for longitudinal data to examine the GRP-RTF and the GRP-CFR relationships excluding regions with extreme values. Time (in years) and a set of relevant socioeconomic variables (territory, population, number of privately owned cars, number of public buses, length of public motor roads, number of physicians, and budget expenditure on health care and physical wellness) were also included as covariates in the models. The RTF rates decreased monotonically over time as GRP per capita increased in 66 studied regions during 2004-2011. This relationship was mainly explained by the number of privately owned cars and partially explained by year dummy variables, number of buses, and number of physicians. CFR also decreased monotonically as GRP per capita increased in 67 studied regions. This relationship between economic growth and CFR was fully explained by secular time trends. The year dummy effects on CFR were not mediated by other socioeconomic variables included in the study. For the period of 2004-2011 in Russia, the reduction in RTFs is mostly explained by increasing the number of private cars, while the reduction of CFR is mostly associated with year-effects suggesting a process of diffusion of knowledge, which is not solely dominated by economic growth.

A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

2015-06-19

Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

Costs and benefits of controlling quarantine diseases : a bio-economic modeling approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Breukers, M.L.H.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Werf, van der W.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

2008-01-01

This article describes a bio-economic model to quantify the costs and benefits of controlling plant quarantine diseases. The model integrates the epidemiology and economic consequences of a quarantine disease. It allows for ex ante evaluation of control scenarios for their cost-effectiveness, taking

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

Testing five social-cognitive models to explain predictors of personal oral health behaviours and intention to improve them.

Science.gov (United States)

Dumitrescu, Alexandrina L; Dogaru, Beatrice C; Duta, Carmen; Manolescu, Bogdan N

2014-01-01

To test the ability of several social-cognitive models to explain current behaviour and to predict intentions to engage in three different health behaviours (toothbrushing, flossing and mouthrinsing). Constructs from the health belief model (HBM), theory of reasoned action (TRA), theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and the motivational process of the health action process approach (HAPA) were measured simultaneously in an undergraduate student sample of 172 first-year medical students. Regarding toothbrushing, the TRA, TPB, HBM (without the inclusion of self-efficacy SE), HBM+SE and HAPA predictor models explained 7.4%, 22.7%, 10%, 10.2% and 10.1%, respectively, of the variance in behaviour and 7.5%, 25.6%, 12.1%, 17.5% and 17.2%, respectively, in intention. Regarding dental flossing, the TRA, TPB, HBM, HBM+SE and HAPA predictor models explained 39%, 50.6, 24.1%, 25.4% and 27.7%, respectively, of the variance in behaviour and 39.4%, 52.7%, 33.7%, 35.9% and 43.2%, respectively, in intention. Regarding mouthrinsing, the TRA, TPB, HBM, HBM+SE and HAPA predictor models explained 43.9%, 45.1%, 20%, 29% and 36%, respectively, of the variance in behaviour and 58%, 59.3%, 49.2%, 59.8% and 66.2%, respectively, in intention. The individual significant predictors for current behaviour were attitudes, barriers and outcome expectancy. Our findings revealed that the theory of planned behaviours and the health action process approach were the best predictor of intentions to engage in both behaviours.

ENTREPRENEURSIPH IN ROMANIA. A BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neațu Alina-Maria

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Economics provides insight into how entrepreneurship influences growth and development and, on the other hand, how the macro structure of a region or country impacts the type and abundance of entrepreneurship. Economic analysis provides insights for scholars, guides practitioners and policymakers. From a broader perspective, economic theories guide the understanding of human behaviors and the constant quest toward realization, comprehension and improvement of human condition. Moreover, behavioral economics combines insights of psychology, sociology and economics in trying to better understand and predict human decision-making. At the intersection of economic studies with social sciences, behavioral economics succeeds to demonstrate, using laboratory tests and experiments, that on a shorter term people are quite capable to perform profitable economic computations and adopt rational behaviors, but on a long term run they easily become fallible in performing rational mental accounting and are vulnerable to several factors such as emotions, certain mass-manipulation techniques, lack of self control or procrastination, etc. Extended research in the field of behavioral economics reports many other various behavioral anomalies that may have the ability to explain seemingly irrational and unpredictable responses of individuals, in general, and entrepreneurs, in particular – especially when finding themselves in conditions of risk, uncertainty or incomplete information. Furthermore, the elevated consistency of these abnormalities suggests that they are divergent only to our traditional models, but that they could otherwise be the norm. The present article seeks to explain how such insights from behavioral economics may help us better understand and enhance our perspective on entrepreneurship, what are some of the most frequent biases characteristic to entrepreneurial behavior and decision-making, accounting as most notable for the field of

Growth theory after Keynes, part II: 75 years of obstruction by the mainstream economics culture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hendrik Van den Berg

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Part I of this essay explained the sequence of events that enabled the neoclassical paradigm to regain its dominant position in mainstream economics following serious challenges by ‘Keynesian’ economists. This second essay seeks to answer the question of why the economics profession was so willing to sustain the neoclassical paradigm in the face of the reality-based challenges by ‘Keynesian’ economists like Harrod and Domar. The answer is sought in the culture of economics, the history of science in general, and the study of power in the field of political economy. This article draws heavily on the work of the French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu, who divides culture into habitus (procedures and dispositions and doxa (more abstract beliefs and philosophies, in order to provide insight into how culture affects economic thinking. Bourdieu’s concept of symbolic violence helps to explain how a narrower neoclassical growth model was enthusiastically accepted as a replacement for the ‘Keynesian’ Harrod-Domar growth model. Financial and business interests clearly understood the power of culture and they used their accumulated wealth to support the neoliberal doxa and neoclassical habitus that would induce economists to willingly provide intellectual cover for policies that benefitted those financial and business interests. We conclude with a discussion on how the history of thought on economic development might have evolved if the Keynesian paradigm, and its dynamic Harrod-Domar model, had prevailed

DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, P.R.

2005-01-01

1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

Media Review: Three Books on a New Economics: A German Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrike Brandhorst

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The first part of this paper presents the ideas of Niko Paech and Christian Felber, two popular exponents of alternative economic models in Germany and Austria. Both authors invoke psychological and behavioral factors, noting that our current economic system is leaving people dependent, unhappy, and dissatisfied, and that this system’s values are contradictory to our constitutional and fundamental values. The book presented in the second part of the paper helps understand this absurdity. It’s Riane Eisler’s The Real Wealth of Nations: Creating a Caring Economics, in which she explains how we can reach an understanding of connections that are still largely invisible, and change the mindsets responsible for replicating harmful behavior and policies reflected in our current economic system.

Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

CERN Document Server

Hritonenko, Natali

2013-01-01

Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

Applications of a constrained mechanics methodology in economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janova, Jitka

2011-01-01

This paper presents instructive interdisciplinary applications of constrained mechanics calculus in economics on a level appropriate for undergraduate physics education. The aim of the paper is (i) to meet the demand for illustrative examples suitable for presenting the background of the highly expanding research field of econophysics even at the undergraduate level and (ii) to enable the students to gain a deeper understanding of the principles and methods routinely used in mechanics by looking at the well-known methodology from the different perspective of economics. Two constrained dynamic economic problems are presented using the economic terminology in an intuitive way. First, the Phillips model of the business cycle is presented as a system of forced oscillations and the general problem of two interacting economies is solved by the nonholonomic dynamics approach. Second, the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of economical growth is solved as a variational problem with a velocity-dependent constraint using the vakonomic approach. The specifics of the solution interpretation in economics compared to mechanics is discussed in detail, a discussion of the nonholonomic and vakonomic approaches to constrained problems in mechanics and economics is provided and an economic interpretation of the Lagrange multipliers (possibly surprising for the students of physics) is carefully explained. This paper can be used by the undergraduate students of physics interested in interdisciplinary physics applications to gain an understanding of the current scientific approach to economics based on a physical background, or by university teachers as an attractive supplement to classical mechanics lessons.

Applications of a constrained mechanics methodology in economics

Science.gov (United States)

Janová, Jitka

2011-11-01

This paper presents instructive interdisciplinary applications of constrained mechanics calculus in economics on a level appropriate for undergraduate physics education. The aim of the paper is (i) to meet the demand for illustrative examples suitable for presenting the background of the highly expanding research field of econophysics even at the undergraduate level and (ii) to enable the students to gain a deeper understanding of the principles and methods routinely used in mechanics by looking at the well-known methodology from the different perspective of economics. Two constrained dynamic economic problems are presented using the economic terminology in an intuitive way. First, the Phillips model of the business cycle is presented as a system of forced oscillations and the general problem of two interacting economies is solved by the nonholonomic dynamics approach. Second, the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of economical growth is solved as a variational problem with a velocity-dependent constraint using the vakonomic approach. The specifics of the solution interpretation in economics compared to mechanics is discussed in detail, a discussion of the nonholonomic and vakonomic approaches to constrained problems in mechanics and economics is provided and an economic interpretation of the Lagrange multipliers (possibly surprising for the students of physics) is carefully explained. This paper can be used by the undergraduate students of physics interested in interdisciplinary physics applications to gain an understanding of the current scientific approach to economics based on a physical background, or by university teachers as an attractive supplement to classical mechanics lessons.

Applications of a constrained mechanics methodology in economics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janova, Jitka, E-mail: janova@mendelu.cz [Department of Theoretical Physics and Astrophysics, Faculty of Science, Masaryk University, Kotlarska 2, 611 37 Brno (Czech Republic); Department of Statistics and Operation Analysis, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno (Czech Republic)

2011-11-15

This paper presents instructive interdisciplinary applications of constrained mechanics calculus in economics on a level appropriate for undergraduate physics education. The aim of the paper is (i) to meet the demand for illustrative examples suitable for presenting the background of the highly expanding research field of econophysics even at the undergraduate level and (ii) to enable the students to gain a deeper understanding of the principles and methods routinely used in mechanics by looking at the well-known methodology from the different perspective of economics. Two constrained dynamic economic problems are presented using the economic terminology in an intuitive way. First, the Phillips model of the business cycle is presented as a system of forced oscillations and the general problem of two interacting economies is solved by the nonholonomic dynamics approach. Second, the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey model of economical growth is solved as a variational problem with a velocity-dependent constraint using the vakonomic approach. The specifics of the solution interpretation in economics compared to mechanics is discussed in detail, a discussion of the nonholonomic and vakonomic approaches to constrained problems in mechanics and economics is provided and an economic interpretation of the Lagrange multipliers (possibly surprising for the students of physics) is carefully explained. This paper can be used by the undergraduate students of physics interested in interdisciplinary physics applications to gain an understanding of the current scientific approach to economics based on a physical background, or by university teachers as an attractive supplement to classical mechanics lessons.

A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

2014-01-01

Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

Science.gov (United States)

Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

2014-01-01

Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philipp Emanuel Hirsch

Full Text Available Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity. Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

Bio-economic modeling of water quality improvements using a dynamic applied general equilibrium approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dellink, R.; Brouwer, R.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Stone, K.

2011-01-01

An integrated bio-economic model is developed to assess the impacts of pollution reduction policies on water quality and the economy. Emission levels of economic activities to water are determined based on existing environmental accounts. These emission levels are built into a dynamic economic model

STIGLER’S INFLUENTIAL CONTRIBUTION TO ECONOMIC THOUGHT

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Artidiatun Adji

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes George J. Stigler’s influential contributions to economic ideas, specifically on industrial structures, the functioning of markets, the causes and effects of public regulation, the economics of information, and on the development of economic thought. Stigler’s most influential contribution to economic thought came in his work on information theory. Treating information as a valuable commodity, he explained why prices differ for identical goods. From his work, many other theories have been built to explain economic behavior. A considerable number of works on decision making under uncertainty could not have progressed without an understanding of the role of information. His swing of the pendulum in economic regulation constitutes a great turnabout. He started research, known as public choice, which assumes that government policymakers are driven by self-interest rather than pure concern for the public’s welfare. His views have now become those of the mainstream.

What sense can the sense-making perspective make for economics?

Science.gov (United States)

Cortés, Mauricio; Londoño, Sandra

2009-06-01

A landscape of interdisciplinary decision theories is sketched with a tentative place for the sense-making approach presented by Salvatore et al (2009). Uncertainty and ambiguity are highlighted as key concepts in both, economics and sense-making perspectives aligning possible and useful conceptual coincidences among post Keynesian economics (Shackle 1974; Davidson 2005) cultural psychology (Salvatore et al. 2009) and organization theory (March 1978, 1994; Weick 1995). Few ideas for the construction of possible research agenda aimed to build a complex model of decision making are suggested. Finally a brief reflection on the study of underground economy is presented. The challenge for the link between psychology and economics is to figure out a descriptive general model of the process of decision making, perhaps by combining weighted elements of the different ways in which human rationality emerges--calculation, rule following, sense-making--for explaining singular and specific decisions.

A More Practical Method for Explaining Equilibrium

OpenAIRE

Yi-Jang Yu

2014-01-01

The aim of this study is to suggest a more practical method for explaining market equilibrium in a two-dimensional risk-return world. Its main difference from textbook contents is to define, in both qualitative and quantitative ways, the environment or the system factor and treat it as an endogenous variable. Once the two-dimensional framework that is capable of managing uncertainty and environmental relationship can be reasonably established, a greater number of economic issues can be effect...

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2015-08-01

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL’s researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects.

Socio-economic Inequalities and Healthcare Utilization in Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bashiru I.I. Saeed

2013-07-01

Full Text Available A socio-economic inequality in the use of healthcare services in Ghana is investigated in this paper. The data employed in the study were drawn from Global Ageing and Adult Health survey conducted in Ghana by SAGE and was based on the design for the World Health Survey (WHS, 2003. The survey was conducted in 2007 and collected data on socio-economic characteristics and other variables of the individuals interviewed. Using generalized logit model, the study found that health status is a very strong determinant of the type of healthcare services Ghanaians look for. In Ghana, there are still important socio-economic gradients in the use of some healthcare services. These differences may be due to socio-economic inequities but could also indicate that the existing health facilities are not always used in an optimal way. Patient factors may be more important than supply factors in explaining the differential use of health services.

Social Capital and Economic Development: A Neighborhood Perspective

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Matthew J. Hanka

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Sean Safford’s 2009 book Why the Garden Club Couldn’t Save Youngstown introduces a revolutionary idea that much of a community’s economic resilience is tied to the social capital that exists within it. Recent research suggests that social capital not only benefits those who develop it, but it can serve as a source of economic development in the communities in which it arises. Past quantitative research on the economic benefit of social capital has only examined the city or higher levels of aggregation. This study measures social capital in three diverse socioeconomic neighborhoods to better understand how social capital can serve as a tool for economic development. An ordered probit regression model was developed to examine how individual and neighborhood levels of social capital benefit households within these communities. Moreover, this study addresses how differences in social capital across neighborhoods are explained by both individual and neighborhood characteristics.

Explaining the Gender Wealth Gap

Science.gov (United States)

Ruel, Erin; Hauser, Robert M.

2013-01-01

To assess and explain the United States’ gender wealth gap, we use the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study to examine wealth accumulated by a single cohort over 50 years by gender, by marital status, and limited to the respondents who are their family’s best financial reporters. We find large gender wealth gaps between currently married men and women, and never-married men and women. The never-married accumulate less wealth than the currently married, and there is a marital disruption cost to wealth accumulation. The status-attainment model shows the most power in explaining gender wealth gaps between these groups explaining about one-third to one-half of the gap, followed by the human-capital explanation. In other words, a lifetime of lower earnings for women translates into greatly reduced wealth accumulation. A gender wealth gap remains between married men and women after controlling for the full model that we speculate may be related to gender differences in investment strategies and selection effects. PMID:23264038

Nuclear power investment risk economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

1986-01-01

This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

On the economic benefit of utility based estimation of a volatility model

OpenAIRE

Adam Clements; Annastiina Silvennoinen

2009-01-01

Forecasts of asset return volatility are necessary for many financial applications, including portfolio allocation. Traditionally, the parameters of econometric models used to generate volatility forecasts are estimated in a statistical setting and subsequently used in an economic setting such as portfolio allocation. Differences in the criteria under which the model is estimated and applied may inhibit reduce the overall economic benefit of a model in the context of portfolio allocation. Thi...

Proximity, social capital and the Simon-model of stochastic growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Frenken, K.; Reggiani, A.; Nijkamp, P.

2009-01-01

It is customary to define economic geography as a discipline that deals with the uneven distribution of economic activity across space. From a historical perspective, stochastic growth models are of particular use (Simon 1955). Such models explain the current distribution of activities from the

Explaining Cold-Pulse Dynamics in Tokamak Plasmas Using Local Turbulent Transport Models

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez-Fernandez, P.; White, A. E.; Howard, N. T.; Grierson, B. A.; Staebler, G. M.; Rice, J. E.; Yuan, X.; Cao, N. M.; Creely, A. J.; Greenwald, M. J.; Hubbard, A. E.; Hughes, J. W.; Irby, J. H.; Sciortino, F.

2018-02-01

A long-standing enigma in plasma transport has been resolved by modeling of cold-pulse experiments conducted on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. Controlled edge cooling of fusion plasmas triggers core electron heating on time scales faster than an energy confinement time, which has long been interpreted as strong evidence of nonlocal transport. This Letter shows that the steady-state profiles, the cold-pulse rise time, and disappearance at higher density as measured in these experiments are successfully captured by a recent local quasilinear turbulent transport model, demonstrating that the existence of nonlocal transport phenomena is not necessary for explaining the behavior and time scales of cold-pulse experiments in tokamak plasmas.

Economic growth in Kosovo and in other countries in terms of globalization of world economy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lumnije Thaçi

2013-07-01

It is important to consider the fact that, despite the recent crisis, economic growth model, based on the deepening of EU integration process, in terms of finance, trade, labour markets and institutions, remains as best model for developing countries and Kosovo itself. Special treatment is given to achieved achievements and projections for the following years under policies compiled by the Government of the Republic of Kosovo to enable generic analysis for concrete situation of our national economy. Also, this paper shall explain the underlying factors which will influence on a more accelerated economic development.

Can inflation explain the second law of thermodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Page, D.N.; Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park

1984-01-01

The inflationary model of the universe can explain several of the cosmological conundra that are mysteries in the standard hot big bang model. Paul Davies has suggested that inflation can also explain the second law of thermodynamics, which describes the time asymmetry of the universe. Here several difficulties with this suggestion are noted showing how the present inflationary models must assume the arrow of time rather than explaining it. If the second law is formulated as a consequence of the hypothesis that there were no long-range spatial correlations in the initial state of the universe, it is shown how some of the cosmological conundra might be explained even without inflation. But if the ultimate explanation is to include inflation, three essential elements remain to be demonstrated which are listed. (author)

Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

2014-03-01

This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

Forecasting models for national economic planning

CERN Document Server

Heesterman, A R G

1972-01-01

This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

THREE APPLICATIONS OF TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS IN ROMANIA

OpenAIRE

Radu A. Păun

2008-01-01

We begin by investigating the use of complex contracts in Romania. A transparent transaction cost economics (TCE) model generates the hypothesis that buyer and seller relationship-specific investments have opposite effects on contract complexity. Our analysis counters the problem of unobserved heterogeneity, generates estimates of the effects of specific investments that are opposite in sign on opposite sides of the agreement, and explains the patterns in the biases of ordinary least-squares ...

A General Model of Negative Frequency Dependent Selection Explains Global Patterns of Human ABO Polymorphism.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando A Villanea

Full Text Available The ABO locus in humans is characterized by elevated heterozygosity and very similar allele frequencies among populations scattered across the globe. Using knowledge of ABO protein function, we generated a simple model of asymmetric negative frequency dependent selection and genetic drift to explain the maintenance of ABO polymorphism and its loss in human populations. In our models, regardless of the strength of selection, models with large effective population sizes result in ABO allele frequencies that closely match those observed in most continental populations. Populations must be moderately small to fall out of equilibrium and lose either the A or B allele (N(e ≤ 50 and much smaller (N(e ≤ 25 for the complete loss of diversity, which nearly always involved the fixation of the O allele. A pattern of low heterozygosity at the ABO locus where loss of polymorphism occurs in our model is consistent with small populations, such as Native American populations. This study provides a general evolutionary model to explain the observed global patterns of polymorphism at the ABO locus and the pattern of allele loss in small populations. Moreover, these results inform the range of population sizes associated with the recent human colonization of the Americas.

Modelli di crisi valutarie e misure di politica economica (Exchange Rate Crises Models and Economic Policy Measures

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Pompeo Della Posta

2012-04-01

Full Text Available  Some recent articles explain the Asian crisis almost exclusively in terms of "fundamentals". The role played by private sector's expectations, however, should also be considered. In my view, then, "escape clause" models exhibiting multiple equilibria within a grey area, especially when integrated with the possibility that expectations may change exogenously so as to modify the grey area itself, allow a better understanding of exchange rate crises. When considering the role played by expectations, the economic policy measures to be adopted in order to assure the stability of financial and currency markets differ from the remedies emerging when those aspects are ignored.        JEL Codes: F31, F32Keywords: Crisis, Exchange Rates

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

Spatial modelling of Calanus finmarchicus and Calanus helgolandicus: parameter differences explain differences in biogeography

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Robert John Wilson

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The North Atlantic copepods Calanus finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus are moving north in response to rising temperatures. Understanding the drivers of their relative geographic distributions is required in order to anticipate future changes. To explore this, we created a new spatially explicit stage-structured model of their populations throughout the North Atlantic. Recent advances in understanding Calanus biology, including U-shaped relationships between growth and fecundity and temperature, and a new model of diapause duration are incorporated in the model. Equations were identical for both species, but some parameters were species-specific. The model was parameterized using Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey data and tested using time series of abundance and fecundity. The geographic distributions of both species were reproduced by assuming that only known interspecific differences and a difference in the temperature influence on mortality exist. We show that differences in diapause capability are not necessary to explain why C. helgolandicus is restricted to the continental shelf. Smaller body size and higher overwinter temperatures likely make true diapause implausible for C. helgolandicus. Known differences were incapable of explaining why only C. helgolandicus exists southwest of the British Isles. Further, the fecundity of C. helgolandicus in the English Channel is much lower than we predict. We hypothesize that food quality is a key influence on the population dynamics of these species. The modelling framework presented can potentially be extended to further Calanus species.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

Science.gov (United States)

McEachern, Kathryn; Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha M.; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlen, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer I.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

The relationship between income, economic freedom, and BMI.

Science.gov (United States)

Lawson, R A; Murphy, R H; Williamson, C R

2016-05-01

What explains increases in BMI (and obesity) over time and across countries? Although many microeconomic forces are likely explanations, increasingly scholars are arguing that macroeconomic forces such as market liberalism and globalization are root causes of the obesity epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of economic freedom on obesity conditional on the level of income and other factors. We use an unbalanced pooled cross section of up to 135 countries for 1995 and 2000-2009. Our statistical model specifications include pooled OLS and fixed effects. First, we find that controlling for fixed effects siphons off much of the relationship previously documented between economic freedom and BMI. Second, economic freedom is associated with slightly higher BMIs but only for men in developing nations. Lastly, we show that economic freedom increases life expectancy for both men and women in developing countries. Therefore, policies aimed at reducing obesity that limit economic liberalism may come at the expense of life expectancy in the developing world. Copyright © 2016 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards low carbon business park energy systems: Classification of techno-economic energy models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Timmerman, Jonas; Vandevelde, Lieven; Van Eetvelde, Greet

2014-01-01

To mitigate climate destabilisation, human-induced greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be curbed. A major share of these emissions originates from the industry and energy sectors. Hence, a low carbon shift in industrial and business park energy systems is called for. Low carbon business parks minimise energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by maximal exploitation of local renewable energy production, enhanced energy efficiency, and inter-firm heat exchange, combined in a collective energy system. The holistic approach of techno-economic energy models facilitates the design of such systems, while yielding an optimal trade-off between energetic, economic and environmental performances. However, no models custom-tailored for industrial park energy systems are detected in literature. In this paper, existing energy model classifications are scanned for adequate model characteristics and accordingly, a confined number of models are selected and described. Subsequently, a practical typology is proposed, existing of energy system evolution, optimisation, simulation, accounting and integration models, and key model features are compared. Finally, important features for a business park energy model are identified. - Highlights: • A holistic perspective on (low carbon) business park energy systems is introduced. • A new categorisation of techno-economic energy models is proposed. • Model characteristics are described per model category. • Essential model features for business park energy system modelling are identified. • A strategy towards a techno-economic energy model for business parks is proposed

Interactive model to assess economics of anaerobic digestion of the farm

Science.gov (United States)

1981-08-01

An interactive computer model, to provide economic assessment for on the farm anaerobic digestion systems was designed. The model is accessed as part of the MASEC Models Library. It consists of two phases: engineering analysis and economic analysis. User inputs are stored in a data base and may be retained for future use. Model outputs include a recap of user inputs, calculations for gas production, digester heat requirements, system revenues, yearly cash flow, and a graph of the net present value of the investment. The model is generalized so that nonfarm applications may also be analyzed. The program will work equally well for various digester designs such as continuously stirred reactors, plug flow systems, and fluidized bed columns.

Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

1974-01-01

A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

2001-01-01

Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

Perbedaan Perusahan Pencipta Economic Value Added Positif Dengan Economic Value Added Negatif

OpenAIRE

Suripto, Suripto

2008-01-01

This research was to explain and analyze the different variable of Inflation Rate,Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, Ratio Plant Asset, Size Measure Company, Profitability, Growth ,LD / E, TD / TA, Stock of Return, Book To Market between company having Economic ValueAdded ( Positive ) and company having Economic Value Added ( Negative ). Analysis which wasused in this research was multivariate analysis of variant (MANOVA). There was different variableof Inflation Rate, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate...

On Spatial Resolution in Habitat Models: Can Small-scale Forest Structure Explain Capercaillie Numbers?

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Ilse Storch

2002-06-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the effects of spatial resolution on the performance and applicability of habitat models in wildlife management and conservation. A Habitat Suitability Index (HSI model for the Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus in the Bavarian Alps, Germany, is presented. The model was exclusively built on non-spatial, small-scale variables of forest structure and without any consideration of landscape patterns. The main goal was to assess whether a HSI model developed from small-scale habitat preferences can explain differences in population abundance at larger scales. To validate the model, habitat variables and indirect sign of Capercaillie use (such as feathers or feces were mapped in six study areas based on a total of 2901 20 m radius (for habitat variables and 5 m radius sample plots (for Capercaillie sign. First, the model's representation of Capercaillie habitat preferences was assessed. Habitat selection, as expressed by Ivlev's electivity index, was closely related to HSI scores, increased from poor to excellent habitat suitability, and was consistent across all study areas. Then, habitat use was related to HSI scores at different spatial scales. Capercaillie use was best predicted from HSI scores at the small scale. Lowering the spatial resolution of the model stepwise to 36-ha, 100-ha, 400-ha, and 2000-ha areas and relating Capercaillie use to aggregated HSI scores resulted in a deterioration of fit at larger scales. Most importantly, there were pronounced differences in Capercaillie abundance at the scale of study areas, which could not be explained by the HSI model. The results illustrate that even if a habitat model correctly reflects a species' smaller scale habitat preferences, its potential to predict population abundance at larger scales may remain limited.

Does cultural integration explain a mental health advantage for adolescents?

Science.gov (United States)

Bhui, Kamaldeep S; Lenguerrand, Erik; Maynard, Maria J; Stansfeld, Stephen A; Harding, Seeromanie

2012-06-01

A mental health advantage has been observed among adolescents in urban areas. This prospective study tests whether cultural integration measured by cross-cultural friendships explains a mental health advantage for adolescents. A prospective cohort of adolescents was recruited from 51 secondary schools in 10 London boroughs. Cultural identity was assessed by friendship choices within and across ethnic groups. Cultural integration is one of four categories of cultural identity. Using gender-specific linear-mixed models we tested whether cultural integration explained a mental health advantage, and whether gender and age were influential. Demographic and other relevant factors, such as ethnic group, socio-economic status, family structure, parenting styles and perceived racism were also measured and entered into the models. Mental health was measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire as a 'total difficulties score' and by classification as a 'probable clinical case'. A total of 6643 pupils in first and second years of secondary school (ages 11-13 years) took part in the baseline survey (2003/04) and 4785 took part in the follow-up survey in 2005-06. Overall mental health improved with age, more so in male rather than female students. Cultural integration (friendships with own and other ethnic groups) was associated with the lowest levels of mental health problems especially among male students. This effect was sustained irrespective of age, ethnicity and other potential explanatory variables. There was a mental health advantage among specific ethnic groups: Black Caribbean and Black African male students (Nigerian/Ghanaian origin) and female Indian students. This was not fully explained by cultural integration, although cultural integration was independently associated with better mental health. Cultural integration was associated with better mental health, independent of the mental health advantage found among specific ethnic groups: Black Caribbean and

Does cultural integration explain a mental health advantage for adolescents?

Science.gov (United States)

Bhui, Kamaldeep S; Lenguerrand, Erik; Maynard, Maria J; Stansfeld, Stephen A; Harding, Seeromanie

2012-01-01

Background A mental health advantage has been observed among adolescents in urban areas. This prospective study tests whether cultural integration measured by cross-cultural friendships explains a mental health advantage for adolescents. Methods A prospective cohort of adolescents was recruited from 51 secondary schools in 10 London boroughs. Cultural identity was assessed by friendship choices within and across ethnic groups. Cultural integration is one of four categories of cultural identity. Using gender-specific linear-mixed models we tested whether cultural integration explained a mental health advantage, and whether gender and age were influential. Demographic and other relevant factors, such as ethnic group, socio-economic status, family structure, parenting styles and perceived racism were also measured and entered into the models. Mental health was measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire as a ‘total difficulties score’ and by classification as a ‘probable clinical case’. Results A total of 6643 pupils in first and second years of secondary school (ages 11–13 years) took part in the baseline survey (2003/04) and 4785 took part in the follow-up survey in 2005–06. Overall mental health improved with age, more so in male rather than female students. Cultural integration (friendships with own and other ethnic groups) was associated with the lowest levels of mental health problems especially among male students. This effect was sustained irrespective of age, ethnicity and other potential explanatory variables. There was a mental health advantage among specific ethnic groups: Black Caribbean and Black African male students (Nigerian/Ghanaian origin) and female Indian students. This was not fully explained by cultural integration, although cultural integration was independently associated with better mental health. Conclusions Cultural integration was associated with better mental health, independent of the mental health advantage

Introducing formalism in economics: The growth model of John von Neumann

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gloria-Palermo Sandye

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The objective is to interpret John von Neumann's growth model as a decisive step of the forthcoming formalist revolution of the 1950s in economics. This model gave rise to an impressive variety of comments about its classical or neoclassical underpinnings. We go beyond this traditional criterion and interpret rather this model as the manifestation of von Neumann's involvement in the formalist programme of mathematician David Hilbert. We discuss the impact of Kurt Gödel's discoveries on this programme. We show that the growth model reflects the pragmatic turn of the formalist programme after Gödel and proposes the extension of modern axiomatisation to economics.

Towards a Theoretical Construct for Modelling Smallholders’ Forestland-Use Decisions: What Can We Learn from Agriculture and Forest Economics?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kahlil Baker

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Academic research on smallholders’ forestland-use decisions is regularly addressed in different streams of literature using different theoretical constructs that are independently incomplete. In this article, we propose a theoretical construct for modelling smallholders’ forestland-use decisions intended to serve in the guidance and operationalization of future models for quantitative analysis. Our construct is inspired by the sub-disciplines of forestry and agricultural economics with a crosscutting theme of how transaction costs drive separability between consumption and production decisions. Our results help explain why exogenous variables proposed in the existing literature are insufficient at explaining smallholders’ forestland-use decisions, and provide theoretical context for endogenizing characteristics of the household, farm and landscape. Smallholders’ forestland-use decisions are best understood in an agricultural context of competing uses for household assets and interdependent consumption and production decisions. Forest production strategies range from natural regeneration to intensive management of the forest resource to co-jointly produce market and non-market values. Due to transaction costs, decision prices are best represented by their shadow as opposed to market prices. Shadow prices are shaped by endogenous smallholder-specific preferences for leisure, non-market values, time, risk, and uncertainty. Our proposed construct is intended to provide a theoretical basis to assist modellers in the selection of variables for quantitative analysis.

Production economic models of fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jesper Levring

The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers......, including all relevant factors in specific analyses is impossible, and it is therefore important to be aware of the most essential ones. As demonstrated in the literature review of Paper 1, a large number of factors may significantly influence fishermen’s short run behaviour, i.e. choice of gear type...

Firm dynamic analysis for urban land use and economic growth modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Che'Man, N.; Sabri, S.; Hosni, N.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

2013-01-01

In urban growth processes, urbanisation is highly influenced by economic growth which triggers the dynamics of economic agents and land uses. This is consisted of complex subsystems which need sophisticated methods like agent-based modelling and simulation to understand the pattern, behaviour and

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

OpenAIRE

Zining Yang

2016-01-01

In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED) is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at...

Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

Pathways of economic inequalities in maternal and child health in urban India: a decomposition analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Goli, Srinivas; Doshi, Riddhi; Perianayagam, Arokiasamy

2013-01-01

Children and women comprise vulnerable populations in terms of health and are gravely affected by the impact of economic inequalities through multi-dimensional channels. Urban areas are believed to have better socioeconomic and maternal and child health indicators than rural areas. This perception leads to the implementation of health policies ignorant of intra-urban health inequalities. Therefore, the objective of this study is to explain the pathways of economic inequalities in maternal and child health indicators among the urban population of India. Using data from the third wave of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS, 2005-06), this study calculated relative contribution of socioeconomic factors to inequalities in key maternal and child health indicators such as antenatal check-ups (ANCs), institutional deliveries, proportion of children with complete immunization, proportion of underweight children, and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). Along with regular CI estimates, this study applied widely used regression-based Inequality Decomposition model proposed by Wagstaff and colleagues. The CI estimates show considerable economic inequalities in women with less than 3 ANCs (CI = -0.3501), institutional delivery (CI = -0.3214), children without fully immunization (CI = -0.18340), underweight children (CI = -0.19420), and infant deaths (CI = -0.15596). Results of the decomposition model reveal that illiteracy among women and her partner, poor economic status, and mass media exposure are the critical factors contributing to economic inequalities in maternal and child health indicators. The residuals in all the decomposition models are very less; this implies that the above mentioned factors explained maximum inequalities in maternal and child health of urban population in India. Findings suggest that illiteracy among women and her partner, poor economic status, and mass media exposure are the critical pathways through which economic factors operate on inequalities in

Pathways of economic inequalities in maternal and child health in urban India: a decomposition analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Srinivas Goli

Full Text Available BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Children and women comprise vulnerable populations in terms of health and are gravely affected by the impact of economic inequalities through multi-dimensional channels. Urban areas are believed to have better socioeconomic and maternal and child health indicators than rural areas. This perception leads to the implementation of health policies ignorant of intra-urban health inequalities. Therefore, the objective of this study is to explain the pathways of economic inequalities in maternal and child health indicators among the urban population of India. METHODS: Using data from the third wave of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS, 2005-06, this study calculated relative contribution of socioeconomic factors to inequalities in key maternal and child health indicators such as antenatal check-ups (ANCs, institutional deliveries, proportion of children with complete immunization, proportion of underweight children, and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR. Along with regular CI estimates, this study applied widely used regression-based Inequality Decomposition model proposed by Wagstaff and colleagues. RESULTS: The CI estimates show considerable economic inequalities in women with less than 3 ANCs (CI = -0.3501, institutional delivery (CI = -0.3214, children without fully immunization (CI = -0.18340, underweight children (CI = -0.19420, and infant deaths (CI = -0.15596. Results of the decomposition model reveal that illiteracy among women and her partner, poor economic status, and mass media exposure are the critical factors contributing to economic inequalities in maternal and child health indicators. The residuals in all the decomposition models are very less; this implies that the above mentioned factors explained maximum inequalities in maternal and child health of urban population in India. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that illiteracy among women and her partner, poor economic status, and mass media exposure are the critical

An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Franklin D.

2005-01-01

This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

Thermally-assisted Magma Emplacement Explains Restless Calderas.

Science.gov (United States)

Amoruso, Antonella; Crescentini, Luca; D'Antonio, Massimo; Acocella, Valerio

2017-08-11

Many calderas show repeated unrest over centuries. Though probably induced by magma, this unique behaviour is not understood and its dynamics remains elusive. To better understand these restless calderas, we interpret deformation data and build thermal models of Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy. Campi Flegrei experienced at least 4 major unrest episodes in the last decades. Our results indicate that the inflation and deflation of magmatic sources at the same location explain most deformation, at least since the build-up of the last 1538 AD eruption. However, such a repeated magma emplacement requires a persistently hot crust. Our thermal models show that this repeated emplacement was assisted by the thermal anomaly created by magma that was intruded at shallow depth ~3 ka before the last eruption. This may explain the persistence of the magmatic sources promoting the restless behaviour of the Campi Flegrei caldera; moreover, it explains the crystallization, re-melting and mixing among compositionally distinct magmas recorded in young volcanic rocks. Our model of thermally-assisted unrest may have a wider applicability, possibly explaining also the dynamics of other restless calderas.

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) User Reference Guide: Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Yimin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2015-02-01

This guide -- the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model User Reference Guide -- was developed to assist users in operating and understanding the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model. The guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and data sources used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model estimates local (e.g., county- or state-level) job creation, earnings, and output from total economic activity for a given fast pyrolysis biorefinery. These estimates include the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the construction and operation phases of biorefinery projects.Local revenue and supply chain impacts as well as induced impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from the IMPLAN software program. By determining the local economic impacts and job creation for a proposed biorefinery, the JEDI Fast Pyrolysis Biorefinery Model can be used to field questions about the added value biorefineries might bring to a local community.

A model explaining synchronization of neuron bioelectric frequency under weak alternating low frequency magnetic field

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moral, A. del, E-mail: delmoral@unizar.es [Laboratorio de Magnetismo, Departamento de Física de Materia Condensada and Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales, Universidad de Zaragoza and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, 50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Laboratorio de Magnetobiología, Departamento de Anatomía e Histología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Zaragoza, 50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Centro de Tecnología Biomédica, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28223 Madrid (Spain); Azanza, María J., E-mail: mjazanza@unizar.es [Laboratorio de Magnetobiología, Departamento de Anatomía e Histología, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Zaragoza, 50009 Zaragoza (Spain); Centro de Tecnología Biomédica, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28223 Madrid (Spain)

2015-03-01

A biomagnetic-electrical model is presented that explains rather well the experimentally observed synchronization of the bioelectric potential firing rate (“frequency”), f, of single unit neurons of Helix aspersa mollusc under the application of extremely low frequency (ELF) weak alternating (AC) magnetic fields (MF). The proposed model incorporates to our widely experimentally tested model of superdiamagnetism (SD) and Ca{sup 2+} Coulomb explosion (CE) from lipid (LP) bilayer membrane (SD–CE model), the electrical quadrupolar long range interaction between the bilayer LP membranes of synchronized neuron pairs, not considered before. The quadrupolar interaction is capable of explaining well the observed synchronization. Actual extension of our SD–CE-model shows that the neuron firing frequency field, B, dependence becomes not modified, but the bioelectric frequency is decreased and its spontaneous temperature, T, dependence is modified. A comparison of the model with synchronization experimental results of pair of neurons under weak (B{sub 0}≅0.2–15 mT) AC-MF of frequency f{sub M}=50 Hz is reported. From the deduced size of synchronized LP clusters under B, is suggested the formation of small neuron networks via the membrane lipid correlation. - Highlights: • Neuron pair synchronization under low frequency alternating (AC) magnetic field (MF). • Superdiamagnetism and Ca{sup 2+} Coulomb explosion for AC MF effect in synchronized frequency. • Membrane lipid electrical quadrupolar pair interaction as synchronization mechamism. • Good agreement of model with electrophysiological experiments on mollusc Helix neurons.

A model explaining synchronization of neuron bioelectric frequency under weak alternating low frequency magnetic field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moral, A. del; Azanza, María J.

2015-01-01

A biomagnetic-electrical model is presented that explains rather well the experimentally observed synchronization of the bioelectric potential firing rate (“frequency”), f, of single unit neurons of Helix aspersa mollusc under the application of extremely low frequency (ELF) weak alternating (AC) magnetic fields (MF). The proposed model incorporates to our widely experimentally tested model of superdiamagnetism (SD) and Ca 2+ Coulomb explosion (CE) from lipid (LP) bilayer membrane (SD–CE model), the electrical quadrupolar long range interaction between the bilayer LP membranes of synchronized neuron pairs, not considered before. The quadrupolar interaction is capable of explaining well the observed synchronization. Actual extension of our SD–CE-model shows that the neuron firing frequency field, B, dependence becomes not modified, but the bioelectric frequency is decreased and its spontaneous temperature, T, dependence is modified. A comparison of the model with synchronization experimental results of pair of neurons under weak (B 0 ≅0.2–15 mT) AC-MF of frequency f M =50 Hz is reported. From the deduced size of synchronized LP clusters under B, is suggested the formation of small neuron networks via the membrane lipid correlation. - Highlights: • Neuron pair synchronization under low frequency alternating (AC) magnetic field (MF). • Superdiamagnetism and Ca 2+ Coulomb explosion for AC MF effect in synchronized frequency. • Membrane lipid electrical quadrupolar pair interaction as synchronization mechamism. • Good agreement of model with electrophysiological experiments on mollusc Helix neurons

Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

2012-01-01

In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR MODELING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boldeanu Dana Maria

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the most important financial and economic indicators at the level of some organizations from the same sector of activity, the selection of performance ratios and generating a particular analysis model help companies to move from the desire

Economic Efficiency, Allen / Uzama and Morishima Elasticities of Smallholder Agriculture In Dedza District, Malawi

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Assa MAGANGA

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This paper is an attempt to measure the economic efficiency of Dedza smallholder Irish potato (Solanum tuberosum farmers in Malawi using a translog cost frontier, inefficiency effect model and input Elasticities from Seeming Unrelated Regression Model for asystem of cost share equations for labour, fertilizer, seed and land. A sample of 200 farmers has been considered from Dedza district in Malawi. Results indicate that the mean economic efficiency of Irish potato production in Dedza District is 0.61 with scores ranging between 0.12 and 0.94. The economic efficiency differences are significantly explained by non-farm employment, education, credit access, farm experience, degree of specialization, household size and frequency of weeding. The highest input substitution existed between labour and fertilizer, followed by seedfertilizer.

Real-time economic optimization for a fermentation process using Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Lars Norbert; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2014-01-01

Fermentation is a widely used process in production of many foods, beverages, and pharmaceuticals. The main goal of the control system is to maximize profit of the fermentation process, and thus this is also the main goal of this paper. We present a simple dynamic model for a fermentation process...... and demonstrate its usefulness in economic optimization. The model is formulated as an index-1 differential algebraic equation (DAE), which guarantees conservation of mass and energy in discrete form. The optimization is based on recent advances within Economic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (E......-NMPC), and also utilizes the index-1 DAE model. The E-NMPC uses the single-shooting method and the adjoint method for computation of the optimization gradients. The process constraints are relaxed to soft-constraints on the outputs. Finally we derive the analytical solution to the economic optimization problem...

ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

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Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

A model explaining neutrino masses and the DAMPE cosmic ray electron excess

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fan, Yi Zhong; Huang, Wei Chih; Spinrath, Martin

2018-01-01

We propose a flavored U(1)eμ neutrino mass and dark matter (DM) model to explain the recent DArk Matter Particle Explorer (DAMPE) data, which feature an excess on the cosmic ray electron plus positron flux around 1.4 TeV. Only the first two lepton generations of the Standard Model are charged under...... the new U(1)eμ gauge symmetry. A vector-like fermion ψ, which is our DM candidate, annihilates into e± and μ± via the new gauge boson Z′ exchange and accounts for the DAMPE excess. We have found that the data favors a ψ mass around 1.5 TeV and a Z′ mass around 2.6 TeV, which can potentially be probed...

Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

Science.gov (United States)

Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

2010-12-01

Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

Economic Order Quality Model for Determining the Sales Prices of Fresh Goods at Various Points in Time

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Po-Yu Chen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Although the safe consumption of goods such as food products, medicine, and vaccines is related to their freshness, consumers frequently understand less than suppliers about the freshness of goods when they purchase them. Because of this lack of information, apart from sales prices, consumers refer only to the manufacturing and expiration dates when deciding whether to purchase and how many of these goods to buy. If dealers could determine the sales price at each point in time and customers’ intention to buy goods of varying freshness, then dealers could set an optimal inventory cycle and allocate a weekly sales price for each point in time, thereby maximizing the profit per unit time. Therefore, in this study, an economic order quality model was established to enable discussion of the optimal control of sales prices. The technique for identifying the optimal solution for the model was determined, the characteristics of the optimal solution were demonstrated, and the implications of the solution’s sensitivity analysis were explained.

Crises and Collective Socio-Economic Phenomena: Simple Models and Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2013-05-01

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the so-called Random Field Ising model ( rfim) provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilizing self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and that account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of rfim-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can fail badly at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria from being reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.

Integrated economic model of waste management: Case study for South Moravia region

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Jiří Hřebíček

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces and discusses the developed integrated economic model of municipal waste management of the Czech Republic, which was developed by authors as a balanced network model for a set of sources (mostly municipalities of municipal solid waste connected with a set of chosen waste treatment facilities processing their waste. Model is implemented as a combination of several economic submodels including environmental and economic point of view. It enables to formulate the optimisation problem in a concise way and the resulting model is easily scalable. Model involves submodels of waste prevention, collection and transport optimization, submodels of waste energy utilization (incineration and biogas plants and material recycling (composting and submodel of landfilling. Its size (number of sources and facilities depends only upon available data. Its application is used in the case study of the South Moravia region with verification of using time series waste data. The results enable to improve decision making in waste management sector.

Economic Disadvantage in Complex Family Systems: Expansion of Family Stress Models

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, Melissa A.

2008-01-01

Economic disadvantage is associated with multiple risks to early socioemotional development. This article reviews research regarding family stress frameworks to model the pathways from economic disadvantage to negative child outcomes via family processes. Future research in this area should expand definitions of family and household to incorporate…

Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

2004-01-01

Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

2015-01-01

The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs

Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verkooijen, W.J.H.

1996-01-01

This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gibson EJ

2018-03-01

Full Text Available EJ Gibson,1 N Begum,1 I Koblbauer,1 G Dranitsaris,2 D Liew,3 P McEwan,4 AA Tahami Monfared,5,6 Y Yuan,7 A Juarez-Garcia,7 D Tyas,8 M Lees9 1Wickenstones Ltd, Didcot, UK; 2Augmentium Pharma Consulting Inc, Toronto, ON, Canada; 3Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Alfred Hospital, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; 4Health Economics and Outcomes Research Ltd, Cardiff, UK; 5Bristol-Myers Squibb Canada, Saint-Laurent, QC Canada; 6Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; 7Bristol-Myers Squibb, Princeton, NJ, USA; 8Bristol-Myers Squibb, Uxbridge, UK; 9Bristol-Myers Squibb, Rueil-Malmaison, France Background: Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. Materials and methods: This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs. Results: The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%. Conclusion: Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models

Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

KAUST Repository

Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

2014-01-01

Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

Economic growth and technological change : an evolutionary interpretation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verspagen, B.

2000-01-01

The aim of this paper is to apply insights from evolutionary economic theory to the question of what can explain recent trends in economic growth, with emphasis on the role of technological change. Obviously, a basic question that precedes this question is "what is evolutionary economic theory"? The

Student Migration to Online Education: An Economic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenhauer, Joseph G.

2013-01-01

The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…

DETERMINATION OF SOCIAL ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUCCESS OF PRODUCTS:

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ESEN GÜRBÜZ

2013-06-01

Full Text Available An Empirical Investigation on the Turkish Food Industry Altough there are studies which evaulate and explain the importance of environmental, social and economic success of a product, it is important to evaluate the considerable success of these three variables together. This paper aims to evaluate economic, social and environmental success of a product all together (but not seperatly by conducting a research.  In this paper for some sample firms operating in the Turkish Food Industry, the variables, which effect the products’ economic, social and enviromental successes, are defined theoretically and the research results are explained investigating if there is a relationship between enviromental, social, economic success criteria and firm size, export, import use of intermediary.

[The theory of the demographic transition as a reference for demo-economic models].

Science.gov (United States)

Genne, M

1981-01-01

The aim of the theory of demographic transition (TTD) is to better understand the behavior and interrelationship of economic and demographic variables. There are 2 types of demo-economic models: 1) the malthusian models, which consider demographic variables as pure exogenous variables, and 2) the neoclassical models, which consider demographic variables as strictly endogenous. If TTD can explore the behavior of exogenous and endogenous demographic variables, it cannot demonstrate neither the relation nor the order of causality among the various demographic and economic variables, but it is simply the theoretical framework of a complex social and economic phenomenon which started in Europe in the 19th Century, and which today can be extended to developing countries. There are 4 stages in the TTD; the 1st stage is characterized by high levels of fecundity and mortality; the 2nd stage is characterized by high fecundity levels and declining mortality levels; the 3rd stage is characterized by declining fecundity levels and low mortality levels; the 4th stage is characterized by low fertility and mortality levels. The impact of economic variables over mortality and birth rates is evident for mortality rates, which decline earlier and at a greater speed than birth rates. According to reliable mathematical predictions, around the year 1987 mortality rates in developing countries will have reached the low level of European countries, and growth rate will be only 1.5%. If the validity of demo-economic models has not yet been established, TTD has clearly shown that social and economic development is the factor which influences demographic expansion.

Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

Science.gov (United States)

Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

2015-01-01

This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

OpenAIRE

Bui, Bich Xuan

2017-01-01

The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Developments in modelling the economic impact of Off-site accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Faude, D.

1991-01-01

Models for assessing the economic consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity have application both in accident consequence codes and in decision aiding computer systems for use in emergency response. Such models may be applied in emergency planning, and studies in connection with the siting, design and licensing of nuclear facilities. Several models for predicting economic impact have been developed, in Europe and the US, and these are reviewed. A new model, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site), has been developed under the CEC MARIA programme and the features of the model are summarised. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. COCO-1 includes the cost of countermeasures, namely evacuation, relocation, sheltering, food restrictions and decontamination, and also the cost of health effects in the exposed population. The primary quantity used in COCO-1 to measure the economic value of land subject to restrictions on usage is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examples of default data included in the model are presented, as are the results of an illustrative application. The limitations of COCO-1 are discussed, and areas where further data are needed are identified

Evaluation of the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model among Families Reporting Economic Pressure

Science.gov (United States)

Vandsburger, Etty; Biggerstaff, Marilyn A.

2004-01-01

This research evaluates the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model (double ABCX model) examining the effects resiliency resources on family functioning when families experience economic pressure. Families (N = 128) with incomes at or below the poverty line from a rural area of a southern state completed measures of perceived economic pressure,…

Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

2017-01-01

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In