WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic evaluation model

  1. Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinhel, A.C.C.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

  2. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  3. The use of modeling in the economic evaluation of vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Jasper M; Alphen, Loek van; Postma, Maarten J

    2002-01-01

    As a consequence of the increased role of pharmacoeconomics in policy-making, economic evaluations are performed at more and more early stages in the development of a therapeutic. This implies the development of models to assess the future impact of an intervention and to account for the level of

  4. Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

    2018-05-14

    Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  5. Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

  6. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

  7. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  8. Evaluation of the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model among Families Reporting Economic Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandsburger, Etty; Biggerstaff, Marilyn A.

    2004-01-01

    This research evaluates the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model (double ABCX model) examining the effects resiliency resources on family functioning when families experience economic pressure. Families (N = 128) with incomes at or below the poverty line from a rural area of a southern state completed measures of perceived economic pressure,…

  9. A review of typhoid fever transmission dynamic models and economic evaluations of vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Conall H; Edmunds, W John

    2015-06-19

    Despite a recommendation by the World Health Organization (WHO) that typhoid vaccines be considered for the control of endemic disease and outbreaks, programmatic use remains limited. Transmission models and economic evaluation may be informative in decision making about vaccine programme introductions and their role alongside other control measures. A literature search found few typhoid transmission models or economic evaluations relative to analyses of other infectious diseases of similar or lower health burden. Modelling suggests vaccines alone are unlikely to eliminate endemic disease in the short to medium term without measures to reduce transmission from asymptomatic carriage. The single identified data-fitted transmission model of typhoid vaccination suggests vaccines can reduce disease burden substantially when introduced programmatically but that indirect protection depends on the relative contribution of carriage to transmission in a given setting. This is an important source of epidemiological uncertainty, alongside the extent and nature of natural immunity. Economic evaluations suggest that typhoid vaccination can be cost-saving to health services if incidence is extremely high and cost-effective in other high-incidence situations, when compared to WHO norms. Targeting vaccination to the highest incidence age-groups is likely to improve cost-effectiveness substantially. Economic perspective and vaccine costs substantially affect estimates, with disease incidence, case-fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy over time also important determinants of cost-effectiveness and sources of uncertainty. Static economic models may under-estimate benefits of typhoid vaccination by omitting indirect protection. Typhoid fever transmission models currently require per-setting epidemiological parameterisation to inform their use in economic evaluation, which may limit their generalisability. We found no economic evaluation based on transmission dynamic modelling, and no

  10. Modelling and economic evaluation of forest biome shifts under climate change in Southwest Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marc Hanewinkel; Susan Hummel; Dominik. Cullmann

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the economic effects of a predicted shift from Norway spruce (Picea abies) to European beech (Fagus sylvatica) for a forest area of 1.3 million ha in southwest Germany. The shift was modelled with a generalized linear model (GLM) by using presence/absence data from the National Forest Inventory in Baden-Wurttemberg...

  11. Modeling companion diagnostics in economic evaluations of targeted oncology therapies: systematic review and methodological checklist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doble, Brett; Tan, Marcus; Harris, Anthony; Lorgelly, Paula

    2015-02-01

    The successful use of a targeted therapy is intrinsically linked to the ability of a companion diagnostic to correctly identify patients most likely to benefit from treatment. The aim of this study was to review the characteristics of companion diagnostics that are of importance for inclusion in an economic evaluation. Approaches for including these characteristics in model-based economic evaluations are compared with the intent to describe best practice methods. Five databases and government agency websites were searched to identify model-based economic evaluations comparing a companion diagnostic and subsequent treatment strategy to another alternative treatment strategy with model parameters for the sensitivity and specificity of the companion diagnostic (primary synthesis). Economic evaluations that limited model parameters for the companion diagnostic to only its cost were also identified (secondary synthesis). Quality was assessed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies instrument. 30 studies were included in the review (primary synthesis n = 12; secondary synthesis n = 18). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios may be lower when the only parameter for the companion diagnostic included in a model is the cost of testing. Incorporating the test's accuracy in addition to its cost may be a more appropriate methodological approach. Altering the prevalence of the genetic biomarker, specific population tested, type of test, test accuracy and timing/sequence of multiple tests can all impact overall model results. The impact of altering a test's threshold for positivity is unknown as it was not addressed in any of the included studies. Additional quality criteria as outlined in our methodological checklist should be considered due to the shortcomings of standard quality assessment tools in differentiating studies that incorporate important test-related characteristics and those that do not. There is a need to refine methods for incorporating the characteristics

  12. Cultural, Social, and Economic Capital Constructs in International Assessments: An Evaluation Using Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro, Daniel H.; Sandoval-Hernández, Andrés; Lüdtke, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The article employs exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to evaluate constructs of economic, cultural, and social capital in international large-scale assessment (LSA) data from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) 2006 and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2009. ESEM integrates the…

  13. Modeling the allocation and economic evaluation of PV panels and wind turbines in urban areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohammadi, S.; Vries, de B.; Schaefer, W.F.; Timmermans, H.

    2014-01-01

    A model for allocating PV panels and wind turbines in urban areas is developed. Firstly, it examines the spatial and technical requirements for the installation of PV panels and wind turbines and then evaluates their economic feasibilities in order to generate the cost effective electricity neutral

  14. MODEL EVALUATION OF THE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-14

  15. ECONOMIC MODEL FOR EVALUATION OF INTEGRAL COMPETITIVENESS OF AUTOMOTIVE ENTERPRISES (AE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Zubritsky

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers problems pertaining to evaluation of competitiveness of automotive enterprises in the field of international consignments. An economic model for determination of the integral AE competitiveness is proposed in the paper and the model permits to substitute an expert estimation in respect of some factors by their qualitative calculation on the basis of data on enterprise activity in the international consignment market.

  16. EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Appendix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. The appendix presents details of the model used for evaluating two specific projects: 'Bio-diesel in the Lemvig area (Denmark), rape seeds as energy crops'; 'Ethanol in the green bio-refining plant'. The results from the use of the model are presented and sensitivity analyses of the model results are performed. Furthermore, a number of background information is presented to be used in relation to the model for evaluating alternative production methods and uses of bio-fuels. Primarily Danish and other European sources of information are selected. (LN)

  17. Model-Based Economic Evaluation of Treatments for Depression: A Systematic Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolovos, Spyros; Bosmans, Judith E.; Riper, Heleen

    2017-01-01

    eligible if they used a health economic model with quality-adjusted life-years or disability-adjusted life-years as an outcome measure. Data related to various methodological characteristics were extracted from the included studies. The available modelling techniques were evaluated based on 11 predefined......, and DES models in seven.ConclusionThere were substantial methodological differences between the studies. Since the individual history of each patient is important for the prognosis of depression, DES and ISM simulation methods may be more appropriate than the others for a pragmatic representation...

  18. An approach for evaluating utility-financed energy conservation programs. The economic welfare model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costello, K W; Galen, P S

    1985-09-01

    The main objective of this paper is to illustrate how the economic welfare model may be used to measure the economic efficiency effects of utility-financed energy conservation programs. The economic welfare model is the theoretical structure that was used in this paper to develop a cost/benefit test. This test defines the net benefit of a conservation program as the change in the sum of consumer and producer surplus. The authors advocate the operation of the proposed cost/benefit model as a screening tool to eliminate from more detailed review those programs where the expected net benefits are less than zero. The paper presents estimates of the net benefit derived from different specified cost/benefit models for four illustrative pilot programs. These models are representative of those which have been applied or are under review by utilities and public utility commissions. From the numerical results, it is shown that net benefit is greatly affected by the assumptions made about the nature of welfare gains to program participants. The main conclusion that emerges from the numerical results is that the selection of a cost/benefit model is a crucial element in evaluating utility-financed energy conservation programs. The paper also briefly addresses some of the major unresolved issues in utility-financed energy conservation programs. 2 figs., 3 tabs., 10 refs. (A.V.)

  19. Development and validation of a Markov microsimulation model for the economic evaluation of treatments in osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Richy, Florent; Gathon, Henry-Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are increasingly used in economic evaluations of treatments for osteoporosis. Most of the existing evaluations are cohort-based Markov models missing comprehensive memory management and versatility. In this article, we describe and validate an original Markov microsimulation model to accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We developed a Markov microsimulation model with a lifetime horizon and a direct health-care cost perspective. The patient history was recorded and was used in calculations of transition probabilities, utilities, and costs. To test the internal consistency of the model, we carried out an example calculation for alendronate therapy. Then, external consistency was investigated by comparing absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates with epidemiologic data. For women at age 70 years, with a twofold increase in the fracture risk of the average population, the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained for alendronate therapy versus no treatment were estimated at €9105 and €15,325, respectively, under full and realistic adherence assumptions. All the sensitivity analyses in terms of model parameters and modeling assumptions were coherent with expected conclusions and absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates were within the range of previous estimates, which confirmed both internal and external consistency of the model. Microsimulation models present some major advantages over cohort-based models, increasing the reliability of the results and being largely compatible with the existing state of the art, evidence-based literature. The developed model appears to be a valid model for use in economic evaluations in osteoporosis.

  20. Evidence used in model-based economic evaluations for evaluating pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests: a systematic review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Jaime L; Cooper, Chris; Buchanan, James

    2015-11-11

    Decision models can be used to conduct economic evaluations of new pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests to ensure they offer value for money to healthcare systems. These models require a great deal of evidence, yet research suggests the evidence used is diverse and of uncertain quality. By conducting a systematic review, we aim to investigate the test-related evidence used to inform decision models developed for the economic evaluation of genetic tests. We will search electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and NHS EEDs to identify model-based economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests. The search will not be limited by language or date. Title and abstract screening will be conducted independently by 2 reviewers, with screening of full texts and data extraction conducted by 1 reviewer, and checked by another. Characteristics of the decision problem, the decision model and the test evidence used to inform the model will be extracted. Specifically, we will identify the reported evidence sources for the test-related evidence used, describe the study design and how the evidence was identified. A checklist developed specifically for decision analytic models will be used to critically appraise the models described in these studies. Variations in the test evidence used in the decision models will be explored across the included studies, and we will identify gaps in the evidence in terms of both quantity and quality. The findings of this work will be disseminated via a peer-reviewed journal publication and at national and international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  1. An economic evaluation of photovoltaic grid connected systems (PVGCS) in Flanders for companies: A generic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Audenaert, Amaryllis; De Boeck, Liesje; De Cleyn, Sven; Lizin, Sebastien; Adam, Jean-Francois

    2010-01-01

    In this paper an economic evaluation of photovoltaic grid connected systems (PVGCS) for companies situated in Flanders (Belgium) is conducted by using a generic Excel model. The model is unique in that it includes the dimension of taxation. This inclusion is required, otherwise the fiscal benefit of using solar panels is not accounted for. The model uses the cash flow projection method. This technique allows the calculation of the following classical evaluation criteria: net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, discounted payback period, profitability index, yield unit cost, yield unit revenue and break-even turnkey cost. Their outcome makes it possible to answer the question whether installing a PVGCS in Flanders is a responsible financial investment for companies. Furthermore, the paper estimates whether the corporate environment is ready for a subsidy legislation change. This change has recently been announced and as such it is possible to gauge whether the current market situation is profitable given future legislation. (author)

  2. Economic bid evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bode, T.

    1975-01-01

    When it is intended to install a new nuclear power station, the usual procedure is to invite for tenders. In due course, bids will be received from various manufacturers, out of which the most favourable one is then to be selected. Appraisal is concluded in the Economic Bid Evaluation, the purpose of which is to define the economically most favourable bid by comparing overall costs and benefits of the various alternatives. Thus, Economic Bid Evaluation is a most important instrument for deciding on award of contract. (orig.) [de

  3. System-level modeling for economic evaluation of geological CO2 storage in gas reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Finsterle, Stefan; Bodvarsson, Gudmundur S.

    2007-01-01

    One way to reduce the effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate is to inject carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial sources into deep geological formations such as brine aquifers or depleted oil or gas reservoirs. Research is being conducted to improve understanding of factors affecting particular aspects of geological CO 2 storage (such as storage performance, storage capacity, and health, safety and environmental (HSE) issues) as well as to lower the cost of CO 2 capture and related processes. However, there has been less emphasis to date on system-level analyses of geological CO 2 storage that consider geological, economic, and environmental issues by linking detailed process models to representations of engineering components and associated economic models. The objective of this study is to develop a system-level model for geological CO 2 storage, including CO 2 capture and separation, compression, pipeline transportation to the storage site, and CO 2 injection. Within our system model we are incorporating detailed reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection into a gas reservoir and related enhanced production of methane. Potential leakage and associated environmental impacts are also considered. The platform for the system-level model is GoldSim [GoldSim User's Guide. GoldSim Technology Group; 2006, http://www.goldsim.com]. The application of the system model focuses on evaluating the feasibility of carbon sequestration with enhanced gas recovery (CSEGR) in the Rio Vista region of California. The reservoir simulations are performed using a special module of the TOUGH2 simulator, EOS7C, for multicomponent gas mixtures of methane and CO 2 . Using a system-level modeling approach, the economic benefits of enhanced gas recovery can be directly weighed against the costs and benefits of CO 2 injection

  4. An integrated model for the technical and economic evaluation of an enzymatic biomass conversion process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Q A; Saddler, J N [Forintek Canada Corp., Ottawa, Ontario (CA). Dept. of Biotechnology and Chemistry

    1991-01-01

    A process simulation model was constructed, using the Lotus 123 spreadsheet, to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of a lignocellulosic-to-ethanol bioconversion process. The major components of the process were: steam pretreatment, fractionation, enzyme production, enzymatic hydrolysis, ethanol fermentation of glucose and xylose, product recovery, and waste treatment. The model provided an estimation of the price of ethanol and evaluated the interdependence of process parameters and their effect on the production cost of ethanol. A case study of a plant processing 500 tonnes of aspenwood per day showed that the parameters which had the most significant impact on the price of ethanol were: the cost of wood, cost of enzymes, efficiency of cellulose hydrolysis, ethanol yield from xylose, efficiency of the fractionation process, and the selling price of the lignin by-product. (author).

  5. Integrated ecological-economic fisheries models - evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Thunberg, Eric; Holland, Daniel S.

    2018-01-01

    and comparative evaluation of 35 IESFM´s applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes though......Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area-specific pressures. In order to fulfill society's intensifying and diversifying needs whilst ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader-scope management of marine resources...... is necessary. Integrated ecological–socioeconomic fisheries models (IESFM) of marine systems are nee¬ded to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anti¬ci¬pate ecological, economic, and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional...

  6. Watershed and Economic Data InterOperability (WEDO): Facilitating Discovery, Evaluation and Integration through the Sharing of Watershed Modeling Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watershed and Economic Data InterOperability (WEDO) is a system of information technologies designed to publish watershed modeling studies for reuse. WEDO facilitates three aspects of interoperability: discovery, evaluation and integration of data. This increased level of interop...

  7. Open Model for the Evaluation of Economic Attractiveness of Small and Medium Sized Reactors. Annex VI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-12-15

    This annex describes the development of an open model for simulation and evaluation of the economic features of small and medium sized reactors (SMRs), being undertaken by the Politecnico di Milano in Italy. The model aims at establishing a comparative assessment of SMRs versus large reactors (LRs) as its final output. The model will allow assessment of the competitiveness of SMRs under different deployment and application conditions. The distinctive attributes of SMRs such as replication, scalability, reversibility and standardization are briefly described below. The features of SMRs impacting the domains of generation costs (co-siting economies, learning economies, technical economies, mass production and factory fabrication economies), deployment conditions (market matching, market suitability, reduced entry barriers) and financial costs (lower financial distress, reduced risk premium) are addressed before explaining the model architecture. Other state of the art models in this regard are also discussed, along with their respective attributes. The special features of the SMR model being developed are discussed. At the current stage of research, selected elements of the generation costs are modelled analytically. Provisions for adapting financial and external costs from other contemporary models and integrating the same into the main framework are being established. The model has been realized as a code, and the updated version of this code is used in the case studies of SMR competitiveness in different applications, carried out within the IAEA project Common Technology and Issues for SMRs.

  8. Discounting in Economic Evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F; Claxton, Karl

    2018-05-19

    Appropriate discounting rules in economic evaluations have received considerable attention in the literature and in national guidelines for economic evaluations. Rightfully so, as discounting can be quite influential on the outcomes of economic evaluations. The most prominent controversies regarding discounting involve the basis for and height of the discount rate, whether costs and effects should be discounted at the same rate, and whether discount rates should decline or stay constant over time. Moreover, the choice for discount rules depends on the decision context one adopts as the most relevant. In this article, we review these issues and debates, and describe and discuss the current discounting recommendations of the countries publishing their national guidelines. We finish the article by proposing a research agenda.

  9. Generalized economic model for evaluating disposal costs at a low-level waste disposal facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baird, R.D.; Rogers, V.C.

    1985-01-01

    An economic model is developed which can be used to evaluate cash flows associated with the development, operations, closure, and long-term maintenance of a proposed Low-Level Radioactive Waste disposal facility and to determine the unit disposal charges and unit surcharges which might result. The model includes the effects of nominal interest rate (rate of return on investment, or cost of capital), inflation rate, waste volume growth rate, site capacity, duration of various phases of the facility history, and the cash flows associated with each phase. The model uses standard discounted cash flow techniques on an after-tax basis to determine that unit disposal charge which is necessary to cover all costs and expenses and to generate an adequate rate of return on investment. It separately considers cash flows associated with post-operational activities to determine the required unit surcharge. The model is applied to three reference facilities to determine the respective unit disposal charges and unit surcharges, with various values of parameters. The sensitivity of the model results are evaluated for the unit disposal charge

  10. Routine magnetic resonance imaging for idiopathic olfactory loss: a modeling-based economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudmik, Luke; Smith, Kristine A; Soler, Zachary M; Schlosser, Rodney J; Smith, Timothy L

    2014-10-01

    Idiopathic olfactory loss is a common clinical scenario encountered by otolaryngologists. While trying to allocate limited health care resources appropriately, the decision to obtain a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan to investigate for a rare intracranial abnormality can be difficult. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ordering routine MRI in patients with idiopathic olfactory loss. We performed a modeling-based economic evaluation with a time horizon of less than 1 year. Patients included in the analysis had idiopathic olfactory loss defined by no preceding viral illness or head trauma and negative findings of a physical examination and nasal endoscopy. Routine MRI vs no-imaging strategies. We developed a decision tree economic model from the societal perspective. Effectiveness, probability, and cost data were obtained from the published literature. Litigation rates and costs related to a missed diagnosis were obtained from the Physicians Insurers Association of America. A univariate threshold analysis and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to quantify the degree of certainty in the economic conclusion of the reference case. The comparative groups included those who underwent routine MRI of the brain with contrast alone and those who underwent no brain imaging. The primary outcome was the cost per correct diagnosis of idiopathic olfactory loss. The mean (SD) cost for the MRI strategy totaled $2400.00 ($1717.54) and was effective 100% of the time, whereas the mean (SD) cost for the no-imaging strategy totaled $86.61 ($107.40) and was effective 98% of the time. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the MRI strategy compared with the no-imaging strategy was $115 669.50, which is higher than most acceptable willingness-to-pay thresholds. The threshold analysis demonstrated that when the probability of having a treatable intracranial disease process reached 7.9%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MRI vs no

  11. Economic evaluation manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-09-01

    An economic analysis on oil or gas property is generally accompanied by a reservoir analysis which predicts the reserves and the performance of the reservoir, recommends the optimum economic method with which to recover the reserves, and through a performance prediction indicates a time schedule for future investments and income. The requirements for a reservoir evaluation are as follows: (1) good reservoir data; (2) oil in place; (3) reservoir energy, both primary and secondary; and (4) reserve calculation and performance predictions for giving both production schedule and selection of secondary recovery mechanisms. Given the above reservoir evaluation parameters, the following are requirements for a complete economic analysis: (1) lease exploration and purchase costs; (2) capital investments schedule dependent upon a reservoir performance prediction; and (3) factors affecting net income such as anticipated selling price of oil and gas and the availability of a market, operating costs and working interest, royalty schedule, depreciation methods, depletion methods and tax schedule. (71 refs.)

  12. Economic evaluation of reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-02-01

    This paper presents a progress report of work undertaken relevant to the economic evaluation of reprocessing. It sets out the assumptions to be made for the preparation of the economic ''phase diagram'' - a plot of fast reactor premium against uranium (U 3 O 8 ) price. The paper discusses the assumptions to be made in respect of present worth methodology, LWR fuel logistics, U 3 O 8 price, enrichment tails, plutonium values, fast reactor premium and proposes a set of reference costs to be used for the preparation of the phase diagram

  13. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF COMBINED THERAPY OF ARTERIAL HYPERTENSION BY MARKOV’S MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. S. Maksimchuk-Kolobova

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To evaluate the economic effectiveness of the combined two-drug antihypertensive therapy in patients with arterial hypertension (HT and high cardiovascular risk by Markov’s modeling.Material and methods. Patients (n= 65; 19 males and 46 females with essential HT accompanied by metabolic disorders, history of previous ineffective antihypertensive therapy were included into the study. Patients were randomized into 2 groups. Group V/A was treated with valsartan and amlodipine in fixed-dose combinations of 160/5 and 160/10 mg depending on blood pressure (BP level. Patients of group L/A were treated with losartan 100 mg and amlodipine 5 or 10 mg daily. Treatment duration was 24 weeks. Changes in BP level, and left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH regression were assessed. Economic evaluation was performed on the basis of modeling with specialized software Decision Tree 4.xla.Results. Effect of the two variants of combination therapy on LVH was used to estimate treatment effectiveness and to build the model. Patients were distributed according to the left ventricular mass (LVM at baseline and after 24 weeks of therapy. Significant decrease in LVM was observed in V/A group: from 225.1±71.7 to 186.3±44.5 g (p<0.05. There was no LVM dynamics in L/A group. The model took into account economic and frequency factors for 10 years forecast. V/A therapy is able to prevent 94 deaths, 22 strokes, and 64 myocardial infarction per 1000 patients. Absence of need in treatment of these prevented events can save about 5.5 million RUR for every 1000 patients. It would reduce the total costs per patient during 10 years. V/A therapy is able to save maximal number of quality adjusted life years (QALY due to LVM regression (5.016 years. L/A combination is the most economical variant of pharmacotherapy due to low cost of treatment (16.491.25 RUR per 1 QALY. It would take 286.698.7 RUR additionally for one additional QALY in the treatment with V/A, and it is

  14. Including adverse drug events in economic evaluations of anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs for adult rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review of economic decision analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather, Eleanor M; Payne, Katherine; Harrison, Mark; Symmons, Deborah P M

    2014-02-01

    Anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs (anti-TNFs) have revolutionised the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). More effective than standard non-biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs), anti-TNFs are also substantially more expensive. Consequently, a number of model-based economic evaluations have been conducted to establish the relative cost-effectiveness of anti-TNFs. However, anti-TNFs are associated with an increased risk of adverse drug events (ADEs) such as serious infections relative to nbDMARDs. Such ADEs will likely impact on both the costs and consequences of anti-TNFs, for example, through hospitalisations and forced withdrawal from treatment. The aim of this review was to identify and critically appraise if, and how, ADEs have been incorporated into model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of anti-TNFs for adult patients with RA. A systematic literature review was performed. Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid EMBASE; Web of Science; NHS Economic Evaluations Database) were searched for literature published between January 1990 and October 2013 using electronic search strategies. The reference lists of retrieved studies were also hand searched. In addition, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence technology appraisals were searched to identify economic models used to inform UK healthcare decision making. Only full economic evaluations that had used an economic model to evaluate biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) (including anti-TNFs) for adult patients with RA and had incorporated the direct costs and/or consequences of ADEs were critically appraised. To be included, studies also had to be available as a full text in English. Data extracted included general study characteristics and information concerning the methods used to incorporate ADEs and any associated assumptions made. The extracted data were synthesised using a tabular and narrative format. A total of 43 model-based economic evaluations of bDMARDs for adult RA

  15. A systematic and critical review of model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in patients with bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohiuddin, Syed

    2014-08-01

    Bipolar disorder (BD) is a chronic and relapsing mental illness with a considerable health-related and economic burden. The primary goal of pharmacotherapeutics for BD is to improve patients' well-being. The use of decision-analytic models is key in assessing the added value of the pharmacotherapeutics aimed at treating the illness, but concerns have been expressed about the appropriateness of different modelling techniques and about the transparency in the reporting of economic evaluations. This paper aimed to identify and critically appraise published model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in BD patients. A systematic review combining common terms for BD and economic evaluation was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PSYCINFO and ECONLIT. Studies identified were summarised and critically appraised in terms of the use of modelling technique, model structure and data sources. Considering the prognosis and management of BD, the possible benefits and limitations of each modelling technique are discussed. Fourteen studies were identified using model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in BD patients. Of these 14 studies, nine used Markov, three used discrete-event simulation (DES) and two used decision-tree models. Most of the studies (n = 11) did not include the rationale for the choice of modelling technique undertaken. Half of the studies did not include the risk of mortality. Surprisingly, no study considered the risk of having a mixed bipolar episode. This review identified various modelling issues that could potentially reduce the comparability of one pharmacotherapeutic intervention with another. Better use and reporting of the modelling techniques in the future studies are essential. DES modelling appears to be a flexible and comprehensive technique for evaluating the comparability of BD treatment options because of its greater flexibility of depicting the disease progression over time. However, depending on the research question

  16. Model-based economic evaluations in smoking cessation and their transferability to new contexts: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Marrit L; Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Evers, Silvia; de Kinderen, Reina J A; Kulchaitanaroaj, Puttarin; Pokhrel, Subhash

    2017-06-01

    To identify different types of models used in economic evaluations of smoking cessation, analyse the quality of the included models examining their attributes and ascertain their transferability to a new context. A systematic review of the literature on the economic evaluation of smoking cessation interventions published between 1996 and April 2015, identified via Medline, EMBASE, National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Health Technology Assessment (HTA). The checklist-based quality of the included studies and transferability scores was based on the European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURONHEED) criteria. Studies that were not in smoking cessation, not original research, not a model-based economic evaluation, that did not consider adult population and not from a high-income country were excluded. Among the 64 economic evaluations included in the review, the state-transition Markov model was the most frequently used method (n = 30/64), with quality adjusted life years (QALY) being the most frequently used outcome measure in a life-time horizon. A small number of the included studies (13 of 64) were eligible for EURONHEED transferability checklist. The overall transferability scores ranged from 0.50 to 0.97, with an average score of 0.75. The average score per section was 0.69 (range = 0.35-0.92). The relative transferability of the studies could not be established due to a limitation present in the EURONHEED method. All existing economic evaluations in smoking cessation lack in one or more key study attributes necessary to be fully transferable to a new context. © 2017 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

  17. Impact and economic evaluation of a novel HIV service delivery model in rural Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBain, Ryan K; Petersen, Elizabeth; Tophof, Nora; Dunbar, Elizabeth L; Kalanga, Noel; Nazimera, Lawrence; Mganga, Andrew; Dullie, Luckson; Mukherjee, Joia; Wroe, Emily B

    2017-09-10

    We performed an impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of a novel HIV service delivery model in a high prevalence, remote district of Malawi with a population of 143 800 people. A population-based retrospective analysis of 1-year survival rates among newly enrolled HIV-positive patients at 682 health facilities throughout Malawi, comparing facilities implementing the service delivery model (n = 13) and those implementing care-as-usual (n = 669). Through district-level health surveillance data, we evaluated 1-year survival rates among HIV patients newly enrolled between July 2013 and June 2014 - representing 129 938 patients in care across 682 health facilities - using a multilevel modeling framework. The model, focused on social determinants of health, was implemented throughout Neno District at 13 facilities and compared with facilities in all other districts. Activity-based costing was used to annualize financial and economic costs from a societal perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed as quality-adjusted life-years gained. The national average 1-year survival rate for newly enrolled antiretroviral therapy clients was 78.9%: this rate was 87.9% in Neno District, compared with 78.8% across all other districts in Malawi (P cost of receiving care in Neno district (n = 6541 patients) was $317/patient/year, compared with an estimated $219/patient in other districts. This translated to $906 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Neno District's comprehensive model of care, featuring a strong focus on the community, is $98 more expensive per capita per annum but demonstrates superior 1-year survival rates, despite its remote location. Moreover, it should be considered cost-effective by traditional international standards.

  18. Economic Evaluation of the Juvenile Drug Court/Reclaiming Futures (JDC/RF) Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollister, Kathryn; Baumer, Pamela; Davis, Monica; Greene, Alison; Stevens, Sally; Dennis, Michael

    2018-07-01

    Juvenile drug court (JDC) programs are an increasingly popular option for rehabilitating juvenile offenders with substance problems, but research has found inconsistent evidence regarding their effectiveness and economic impact. While assessing client outcomes such as reduced substance use and delinquency is necessary to gauge program effectiveness, a more comprehensive understanding of program success and sustainability can be attained by examining program costs and economic benefits. As part of the National Cross-Site Evaluation of JDC and Reclaiming Futures (RF), an economic analysis of five JDC/RF programs was conducted from a multisystem and multiagency perspective. The study highlights the direct and indirect costs of JDC/RF and the savings generated from reduced health problems, illegal activity, and missed school days. Results include the average (per participant) cost of JDC/RF, the total economic benefits per JDC/RF participant, and the net savings of JDC/RF relative to standard JDC.

  19. A systematic review of modelling approaches in economic evaluations of health interventions for drug and alcohol problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Van Phuong; Shanahan, Marian; Shukla, Nagesh; Perez, Pascal; Farrell, Michael; Ritter, Alison

    2016-04-13

    The overarching goal of health policies is to maximize health and societal benefits. Economic evaluations can play a vital role in assessing whether or not such benefits occur. This paper reviews the application of modelling techniques in economic evaluations of drug and alcohol interventions with regard to (i) modelling paradigms themselves; (ii) perspectives of costs and benefits and (iii) time frame. Papers that use modelling approaches for economic evaluations of drug and alcohol interventions were identified by carrying out searches of major databases. Thirty eight papers met the inclusion criteria. Overall, the cohort Markov models remain the most popular approach, followed by decision trees, Individual based model and System dynamics model (SD). Most of the papers adopted a long term time frame to reflect the long term costs and benefits of health interventions. However, it was fairly common among the reviewed papers to adopt a narrow perspective that only takes into account costs and benefits borne by the health care sector. This review paper informs policy makers about the availability of modelling techniques that can be used to enhance the quality of economic evaluations for drug and alcohol treatment interventions.

  20. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies I: Model Development.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper an integrated modelling framework for water resources planning and management that can be used to carry out an analysis of alternative policy scenarios for water allocation and use is described. The modelling approach is based on integrating a network allocation model (REALM) and a

  1. Economic evaluation of vaccines: Considerations on evidence, discounting, models and futures challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, M.; Largeron, N.; Annemans, L.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: During the last decade, with the arrival of new innovative vaccines, there was a huge increase in the number of papers on economic evaluation of vaccination programmes. Our study had a 3-fold objective: 1) Appraise available methodological papers dealing with specificities of vaccines in

  2. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  3. EMBIO - The Danish Energy Agency's model for economic and environmental evaluation of bio-fuels. Main report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    A methodological concept is established for a life-cycle based model which can be used for socio- and private economic and environmental assessment of automotive bio-fuels. The calculation method must be able to calculate socio-economic, energy, environmental, and other consequences by alternative productions and uses of bio-fuels in a way that makes it possible to compare advantages and disadvantages across alternative production technologies. Furthermore it must be possible to perform private cost-benefit calculations from the model. The model must also be able to evaluate specific bio-fuel project, and therefore the method has been developed in close interaction with analyses of two bio-fuel projects. The main emphasis in the development of the model has been put on the relation between CO 2 reduction and economics. One main result of the model analyses is therefore the calculated shadow price for the CO 2 reduction which expresses the socio-economic costs per ton saved CO 2 . The socio-economic analyses of the model do not include a monetary account of other environmental impacts than the CO 2 emission or other relevant consequences like impacts on employment, balance of payments etc. Thus the socio-economic analyses cannot be the only decision basis for assessing bio-fuel projects. The other environmental aspects are treated only briefly. The model may, however, very easily be extended to a more formalized account of these other aspects. The model may be used for specific experimental projects and for implementation of large full-scale projects. The model development has been limited to use of bio-fuels in the transportation sector. The model may, however, also be used for evaluating bio-fuels in general or other biomass-based energy use in other sectors. (LN) 113 refs

  4. Health economic evaluation: important principles and methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudmik, Luke; Drummond, Michael

    2013-06-01

    To discuss health economic evaluation and improve the understanding of common methodology. This article discusses the methodology for the following types of economic evaluations: cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, cost-benefit, and economic modeling. Topics include health-state utility measures, the quality-adjusted life year (QALY), uncertainty analysis, discounting, decision tree analysis, and Markov modeling. Economic evaluation is the comparative analysis of alternative courses of action in terms of both their costs and consequences. With increasing health care expenditure and limited resources, it is important for physicians to consider the economic impact of their interventions. Understanding common methodology involved in health economic evaluation will improve critical appraisal of the literature and optimize future economic evaluations. Copyright © 2012 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  5. Cyanide removal from industrial wastewater by cross-flow nanofiltration: transport modeling and economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Parimal; Bhakta, Pamela; Kumar, Ramesh

    2014-08-01

    A modeling and simulation study, along with an economic analysis, was carried out for the separation of cyanide from industrial wastewater using a flat sheet cross-flow nanofiltration membrane module. With the addition of a pre-microfiltration step, nanofiltration was carried out using real coke wastewater under different operating conditions. Under the optimum operating pressure of 13 bars and a pH of 10.0, a rate of more than 95% separation of cyanide was achieved. That model predictions agreed very well with the experimental findings, as is evident in the Willmott d-index value (> 0.95) and relative error (economic analysis was also done, considering the capacity of a running coking plant. The findings are likely to be very useful in the scale-up and design of industrial plants for the treatment of cyanide-bearing wastewater.

  6. Implementation and Evaluation of an Economic Model for Telestroke: Experience from Virtuall, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nolwenn Riou-Comte

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundTelestroke is recognized as a safe and time-efficient way of treating stroke patients. However, admission centers (spokes are subject to financial charges which can make them reluctant to join the system. We implemented and assessed an economic model supporting our telestroke system, Virtuall, France, which includes one expert center (hub and six spokes.MethodsThe model is based on payment for the expertise provided by the hub, distribution of charges related to telemedicine according to the fees perceived by the spokes, and transfer of patients between the spokes and the hub. We performed a cost–benefit analysis for all patients included in Virtuall from January 2014 to December 2015 to assess the economic balance in each center.Results321 patients were prospectively included in the study. Application of the economic model resulted in overall financial balance with funding of a dedicated medical service in the hub, and reduced costs directly related to telestroke by an average of 10% in the spokes. The conditions generating the highest costs for the spokes were: a patient returning from the hub for re-hospitalization (mean cost of $1,995/patient; management of patients treated by intravenous thrombolysis without transfer to the hub (mean cost of $2,075/patient. The most favorable financial condition for the spokes remained simple transfer of patients to the hub and no return (mean cost of $329/patient.ConclusionWe describe an economic model which can be applied to any telestroke system to ensure the optimal balance between hub and spoke centers.

  7. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  8. The use of a GIS model to evaluate the economic potential for biomass in Northampton County, Pennsylvania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breger, D.S.; Snyder, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the development and use of a geographical information system (GIS) model to evaluate the technical and economic potential for biomass energy (particularly willows) in a county of Pennsylvania. The model uses GIS coverages of land use, soil type, and riparian zones to evaluate the applicability and cost of biomass production and to generate a supply curve for a biomass economy. The model can be extended to consider energy end-use facilities and transportation costs to analyze the willingness-to-pay for biomass fuels by large energy users. The GIS model is designed to produce a county-level supply-and-demand curve for biomass energy, and the potential for market activity. The spatial distributions of supply-and-demand economics are valuable to target efforts to initiate biomass activities. (author)

  9. Verification of Decision-Analytic Models for Health Economic Evaluations: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasbach, Erik J; Elbasha, Elamin H

    2017-07-01

    Decision-analytic models for cost-effectiveness analysis are developed in a variety of software packages where the accuracy of the computer code is seldom verified. Although modeling guidelines recommend using state-of-the-art quality assurance and control methods for software engineering to verify models, the fields of pharmacoeconomics and health technology assessment (HTA) have yet to establish and adopt guidance on how to verify health and economic models. The objective of this paper is to introduce to our field the variety of methods the software engineering field uses to verify that software performs as expected. We identify how many of these methods can be incorporated in the development process of decision-analytic models in order to reduce errors and increase transparency. Given the breadth of methods used in software engineering, we recommend a more in-depth initiative to be undertaken (e.g., by an ISPOR-SMDM Task Force) to define the best practices for model verification in our field and to accelerate adoption. Establishing a general guidance for verifying models will benefit the pharmacoeconomics and HTA communities by increasing accuracy of computer programming, transparency, accessibility, sharing, understandability, and trust of models.

  10. Economic evaluation of reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-11-01

    This discussion paper first identifies the main factors which influence the economic assessment of reprocessing. It proposes the use of a diagram - the so-called ''phase diagram'' - which plots the fast reactor premium against the price of uranium. The diagram delineates areas where the once-through fuel cycle, thermal recycle and fast reactor will be the preferred choice from micro-economic considerations. The paper then goes on to consider the circumstances under which a country may or may not wish to introduce thermal recycle or fast reactors. Finally, a procedure for further discussion on economic considerations with WG4 is proposed

  11. Economic evaluation of KALIMER

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, Kee Hwan

    1997-01-01

    The main results of this study are as follows. To estimate the economic feasibility of KALIMER, the cost estimate model has been developed by using MS Excel software. Two scenarios were considered in this study. Scenario-A is composed of KALIMER options, which have FC1B (first commercial plant with 1 block), FC3B (first commercial plant with 3 blocks), NOAK1B (Nth-of-a-kind plant with 1 block), NOAK3B(Nth-of-a-kind plant with 3 blocks). The size of each block is 333 MWe. Scenario-B is comprised of PWR options, which have existing PWRs and new concepts of advanced PWR (APWR) in order to compare with KALIMER options. According to the results, the specific capital cost ($/kWe) and the levelized busbar cost (mills/kWh) for the NOAK3B option are 11% and 12% lower than that of FC3B option, respectively. These results from learning effects, scaling factors and some reductions of material and labor requirements for the NOAK3B option. And the levelized capital cost of NOAK3B option is 17%, 6% lower than that of existing PWR and APWR option, respectively. These results form shorten of construction times and labor requirements, modularization and design simplications etc. Therefore, decision and policy maker related to KALIMER development must note through the results of this study that multi-blocks design concept for its commercial plant should be considered to get the economy of scale effects. KALIMER has high competitiveness comparing to the existing PWRs and APWR. Therefore, it should be considered as a power supply option in the future in Korea. (author). 7 refs., 17 tabs., 7 figs.

  12. Economic evaluation of KALIMER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Kee Hwan.

    1997-01-01

    The main results of this study are as follows. To estimate the economic feasibility of KALIMER, the cost estimate model has been developed by using MS Excel software. Two scenarios were considered in this study. Scenario-A is composed of KALIMER options, which have FC1B (first commercial plant with 1 block), FC3B (first commercial plant with 3 blocks), NOAK1B (Nth-of-a-kind plant with 1 block), NOAK3B(Nth-of-a-kind plant with 3 blocks). The size of each block is 333 MWe. Scenario-B is comprised of PWR options, which have existing PWRs and new concepts of advanced PWR (APWR) in order to compare with KALIMER options. According to the results, the specific capital cost ($/kWe) and the levelized busbar cost (mills/kWh) for the NOAK3B option are 11% and 12% lower than that of FC3B option, respectively. These results from learning effects, scaling factors and some reductions of material and labor requirements for the NOAK3B option. And the levelized capital cost of NOAK3B option is 17%, 6% lower than that of existing PWR and APWR option, respectively. These results form shorten of construction times and labor requirements, modularization and design simplications etc. Therefore, decision and policy maker related to KALIMER development must note through the results of this study that multi-blocks design concept for its commercial plant should be considered to get the economy of scale effects. KALIMER has high competitiveness comparing to the existing PWRs and APWR. Therefore, it should be considered as a power supply option in the future in Korea. (author). 7 refs., 17 tabs., 7 figs

  13. Health Economic Evaluation of Telehealthcare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Udsen, Flemming Witt

    for decision making meant to inform adaptation of the health economic evaluation approach. Based on developments in realist evaluation and experiences with conducting the evaluation of TeleCare North, four principles for health economic evaluation of complex telehealthcare interventions is outlined in order....... The results from the TeleCare North trial were used directly in a national decision to implement the telehealthcare solution to patients with severe COPD in Denmark and lead to considerable debate nationally. This debate could be viewed as an actual account of the usefulness of health economic evaluation...

  14. Economic Evaluations of Multicomponent Disease Management Programs with Markov Models: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Florian

    2016-12-01

    Disease management programs (DMPs) for chronic diseases are being increasingly implemented worldwide. To present a systematic overview of the economic effects of DMPs with Markov models. The quality of the models is assessed, the method by which the DMP intervention is incorporated into the model is examined, and the differences in the structure and data used in the models are considered. A literature search was conducted; the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement was followed to ensure systematic selection of the articles. Study characteristics e.g. results, the intensity of the DMP and usual care, model design, time horizon, discount rates, utility measures, and cost-of-illness were extracted from the reviewed studies. Model quality was assessed by two researchers with two different appraisals: one proposed by Philips et al. (Good practice guidelines for decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment: a review and consolidation of quality asessment. Pharmacoeconomics 2006;24:355-71) and the other proposed by Caro et al. (Questionnaire to assess relevance and credibility of modeling studies for informing health care decision making: an ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Good Practice Task Force report. Value Health 2014;17:174-82). A total of 16 studies (9 on chronic heart disease, 2 on asthma, and 5 on diabetes) met the inclusion criteria. Five studies reported cost savings and 11 studies reported additional costs. In the quality, the overall score of the models ranged from 39% to 65%, it ranged from 34% to 52%. Eleven models integrated effectiveness derived from a clinical trial or a meta-analysis of complete DMPs and only five models combined intervention effects from different sources into a DMP. The main limitations of the models are bad reporting practice and the variation in the selection of input parameters. Eleven of the 14 studies reported cost-effectiveness results of less than $30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year and

  15. Professional Competence of Prospective Teachers in Business and Economics Education: Evaluation of a Competence Model Using Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouley, Franziska; Wuttke, Eveline; Schnick-Vollmer, Kathleen; Schmitz, Bernhard; Berger, Stefanie; Fritsch, Sabine; Seifried, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    Teacher competence is crucial for quality of teaching and learner achievement. Competency models and competence measurement are prevalent in domains such as the natural sciences and lacking in others. We conducted our research in the field of business and economics education by focusing on the accounting domain because it is key to a deep…

  16. Economic evaluation of reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper, which also appears as an Appendix to the Final Working Group 4 report, considers the economics of the four basic options available in nuclear programmes namely: the once-through cycle; reprocessing with uranium recycle and plutonium storage; reprocessing with both uranium and plutonium recycle; and the fast reactor. These options are represented by four separate areas on a ''phase diagram'' showing the relationship between relative generating costs and uranium ore price. The basic algebra defining each component of electricity cost is given for each option. The diagram can take different forms depending upon the relative magnitudes of the costs of reprocessing and MOX fuel fabrication and whether the once-through fuel cycle is acceptable or not on grounds other than strictly economic, i.e. environmental grounds. The shortcomings of this form of presentation are also identified

  17. Economic communication model set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

    2017-06-01

    This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

  18. Evaluating environmental and economic consequences of alternative pest management strategies: results of modeling workshops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Richard L.; Andrews, Austin K.; Auble, Gregor T.L.; Ellison, Richard A.; Hamilton, David B.; Roelle, James E.; McNamee, Peter J.

    1983-01-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) needs a comprehensive method to evaluate the human health and environmental effects of alternative agricultural pest management strategies. This project explored the utility of Adaptive Environmental Assessment (AEA) techniques for meeting this need. The project objectives were to produce models for environmental impact analysis, improve communications, identify research needs and data requirements, and demonstrate a process for resolving conflicts. The project was structured around the construction (in an initial 2 1/2-day workshop) and examination (in a second 2 1/2-day workshop) of a simulation model of a corn agroecosystem.

  19. A passive cold storage device economic model to evaluate selected immunization location scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Bryan A; Nourollahi, Sevnaz; Chen, Sheng-I; Brown, Shawn T; Claypool, Erin G; Connor, Diana L; Schmitz, Michelle M; Rajgopal, Jayant; Wateska, Angela R; Lee, Bruce Y

    2013-10-25

    The challenge of keeping vaccines cold at health posts given the unreliability of power sources in many low- and middle-income countries and the expense and maintenance requirements of solar refrigerators has motivated the development of passive cold storage devices (PCDs), containers that keep vaccines cold without using an active energy source. With different PCDs under development, manufacturers, policymakers and funders need guidance on how varying different PCD characteristics may affect the devices' cost and utility. We developed an economic spreadsheet model representing the lowest two levels of a typical Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccine supply chain: a district store, the immunization locations that the district store serves, and the transport vehicles that operate between the district store and the immunization locations. The model compares the use of three vaccine storage device options [(1) portable PCDs, (2) stationary PCDs, or (3) solar refrigerators] and allows the user to vary different device (e.g., size and cost) and scenario characteristics (e.g., catchment area population size and vaccine schedule). For a sample set of select scenarios and equipment specification, we found the portable PCD to generally be better suited to populations of 5,000 or less. The stationary PCD replenished once per month can be a robust design especially with a 35L capacity and a cost of $2,500 or less. The solar device was generally a reasonable alternative for most of the scenarios explored if the cost was $2,100 or less (including installation). No one device type dominated over all explored circumstances. Therefore, the best device may vary from country-to-country and location-to-location within a country. This study introduces a quantitative model to help guide PCD development. Although our selected set of explored scenarios and device designs was not exhaustive, future explorations can further alter model input values to represent additional scenarios

  20. Spatial Planning and Policy Evaluation in an Urban Conurbation: a Regional Agent-Based Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luzius Stricker

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies different functions and relations between 45 agglomerated municipalities in southern Switzerland (Ticino, using a territorial agent-based model. Our research adopts a bottom-up approach to urban systems, considering the agglomeration mechanism and effects of different regional and urban policies, and simulates the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city using an Agent-based model (ABM. Simulating the individual actions of diverse agents on a real city and measuring the resulting system behaviour and outcomes over time, they effectively provide a good test bed for evaluating the impact of different policies. The database is created merging the Swiss official secondary data for one reference year (2011 with Eurostat and OECD-Regpat. The results highlight that the understanding of municipalities’ functions on the territory appears to be essential for designing a solid institutional agglomeration (or city. From a methodological point of view, we contribute to improve the application of territorial ABM. Finally, our results provide a robust base to evaluate in a dynamic way various political interventions, in order to ensure a sustainable development of the agglomeration and the surrounding territories. Applying the analyses and the model on a larger scale, including further regions and conurbations, and including more indicators and variables, to obtain a more detailed and characteristic model, will constitute a further step of the research.

  1. DYNAMIC MODEL FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE TRACEABILITY OF MEXICAN BEEF MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucila Herrera Ayala

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to point out the importance of the implementation of a traceability system in economic terms in the beef meat production activity, for the 2011-2016 period, a dynamic model was created in order to estimate the real value of the cattle inventory and to make projections of the gains and losses obtained in the implementation or not of this system with two possible plausible scenarios that affect the exports and imports. The results indicate that if the exports were increased by 53%, just like it happened in Uruguay with the implementation of this system, gains would increase 8.21% in the yearly average. In the absence of this system and considering the 80% decrease of the exports in the United States, in the presence of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE losses would increase 9.97% in a yearly average. In both scenarios a change ± of 20% in the imports was considered. Due to the results obtained and in the face of foreseeable conduct of trade, the cost of opportunity of a traceability system results positive.

  2. Presentation of economic evaluation results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaikledkaew, Usa

    2014-05-01

    The first HTA guidelines for Thailand included a chapter outlining a set of guidelines on how best to report the findings of health economic evaluations, based on a review of best practice and existing guidelines on the presentation of economic evaluation results from around the world. In this second edition of HTA guidelines for Thailand, the recommendations build on the first edition by using a case study to illustrate how the guidelines can be applied in a real research context. The guidelines propose that all reporting include ten key elements: defining the scope of the study, selection of comparator(s), defining the type of economic evaluation, measurement of costs, measurement of clinical effects, handling time in economic evaluation studies, handling uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, presentation of the results, discussion of the results, and disclosure of funding and authors conflict of interest.

  3. Modeling an economic evaluation of a salt fluoridation program in Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariño, Rodrigo J; Fajardo, Jorge; Arana, Ana; Garcia, Carlos; Pachas, Flor

    2011-01-01

    This article models the cost-effectiveness, from a societal viewpoint, of a dental caries prevention program using salt fluoridation for children 12 years of age, compared with non-intervention (or status quo) in Arequipa, Peru. Standard cost-effectiveness analysis methods were used. The costs associated with implementing and operating the salt-fluoridation program were identified and measured using 2009 prices. Health outcomes were measured as dental caries averted over a 6-year period. Clinical effectiveness data was taken from published data. Costs were measured as direct treatment costs, programs costs and costs of productivity losses as a result of dental treatments. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated. A hypothetical population of 25,000 12-year-olds living in Arequipa, Peru was used in this analysis. Two-way sensitivity analyses were conducted over a range of values for key parameters. Our primary analysis estimated that if a dental caries prevention program using salt-fluoridation was available for 25,000 6-year-old children for 6 years, the net saving from a societal perspective would total S/. 11.95 [1 US$ = S/. (2009) 3.01] per diseased tooth averted when compared with the status quo group. That is, after 6 years, an investment of S/.0.32 per annum per child would result in a net saving of S/.11.95 per decayed/missing/filled teeth prevented. While the analysis has inherent limitations as a result of its reliance on a range of assumptions, the findings indicate that for the situations prevailing in Peru, there are significant health and economic benefits to be gained from the use of salt fluoridation.

  4. Using whole disease modeling to inform resource allocation decisions: economic evaluation of a clinical guideline for colorectal cancer using a single model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tappenden, Paul; Chilcott, Jim; Brennan, Alan; Squires, Hazel; Glynne-Jones, Rob; Tappenden, Janine

    2013-06-01

    To assess the feasibility and value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways within a single model to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions. A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of being capable of evaluating multiple topics within National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments, follow-up, curative/palliative treatments for metastases, supportive care, and eventual death. The model parameters were informed by meta-analyses, randomized trials, observational studies, health utility studies, audit data, costing sources, and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using conventional cost-utility decision rules within each guideline topic and constrained maximization rules across multiple topics. Under usual processes for guideline development, piecewise economic modeling would have been used to evaluate between one and three topics. The Whole Disease Model was capable of evaluating 11 of 15 guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained maximization analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services that is expected to maximize quality-adjusted life-year gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. This study indicates that Whole Disease Model development is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of most interventions across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. This disease-level modeling approach may be of particular value in providing an economic basis to support other clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2013 International

  5. Model-based economic evaluation in Alzheimer's disease: a review of the methods available to model Alzheimer's disease progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Colin; Shearer, James; Ritchie, Craig W; Zajicek, John P

    2011-01-01

    To consider the methods available to model Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression over time to inform on the structure and development of model-based evaluations, and the future direction of modelling methods in AD. A systematic search of the health care literature was undertaken to identify methods to model disease progression in AD. Modelling methods are presented in a descriptive review. The literature search identified 42 studies presenting methods or applications of methods to model AD progression over time. The review identified 10 general modelling frameworks available to empirically model the progression of AD as part of a model-based evaluation. Seven of these general models are statistical models predicting progression of AD using a measure of cognitive function. The main concerns with models are on model structure, around the limited characterization of disease progression, and on the use of a limited number of health states to capture events related to disease progression over time. None of the available models have been able to present a comprehensive model of the natural history of AD. Although helpful, there are serious limitations in the methods available to model progression of AD over time. Advances are needed to better model the progression of AD and the effects of the disease on peoples' lives. Recent evidence supports the need for a multivariable approach to the modelling of AD progression, and indicates that a latent variable analytic approach to characterising AD progression is a promising avenue for advances in the statistical development of modelling methods. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Cost-Effectiveness of a Chronic Care Model for Frail Older Adults in Primary Care: Economic Evaluation Alongside a Stepped-Wedge Cluster-Randomized Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, K.M.; Bosmans, J.E.; Jansen, A.P.D.; Hoogendijk, E.O.; Muntinga, M.E.; van Hout, H.P.J.; Nijpels, G.; van der Horst, H.E.; van Tulder, M.W.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Geriatric Care Model (GCM), an integrated care model for frail older adults based on the Chronic Care Model, with that of usual care. Design Economic evaluation alongside a 24-month stepped-wedge cluster-randomized controlled trial. Setting

  7. Cost-Effectiveness of a Chronic Care Model for Frail Older Adults in Primary Care : Economic Evaluation Alongside a Stepped-Wedge Cluster-Randomized Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, Karen M; Bosmans, Judith E; Jansen, Aaltje P D; Hoogendijk, Emiel O; Muntinga, Maaike E; van Hout, Hein P J; Nijpels, Giel; van der Horst, Henriette E; van Tulder, Maurits W

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Geriatric Care Model (GCM), an integrated care model for frail older adults based on the Chronic Care Model, with that of usual care. DESIGN: Economic evaluation alongside a 24-month stepped-wedge cluster-randomized controlled trial. SETTING:

  8. Health economic evaluation in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovithis, Dimitrios

    2006-01-01

    There is a growing volume of literature on health economic evaluation, with this form of analysis becoming increasingly influential at the decision-making level worldwide. The purpose of this study was to review the current state of health economic evaluation in Greece, with a view to uncovering reasons why its use in this country is limited. A search of the NHS Economic Evaluation Database was undertaken. The search included cost, cost-of-illness, cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-consequences, cost-utility, and cost-benefit analyses and was narrowed only to Greek authors undertaking solo or joint health economic evaluation in Greece. The search revealed that, in Greece, very little health economic evaluation has been undertaken. The main reason for the lack of interest is that the current chaotic healthcare system structure and financing does not provide the appropriate incentives to stimulate a powerful interest in this type of research. This condition is a result of the lack of a long-term national health policy and the hesitation of the present and past Greek governments to date to proceed to large-scale reforms because of political considerations. The Greek governments have also been content with the good health indicators being achieved. Even if it is accepted that good health prevails in Greece, slower economic growth rates, an ageing population, and the continuous immigration will place increasing pressure on healthcare resources and will necessitate a more rational use of these resources. Health economic evaluation, by weighing benefits against costs, therefore, has an important role to play.

  9. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  10. Modeling recent economic debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

  11. Biofuel Crops Expansion: Evaluating the Impact on the Agricultural Water Scarcity Costs and Hydropower Production with Hydro Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques, G.

    2015-12-01

    Biofuels such as ethanol from sugar cane remain an important element to help mitigate the impacts of fossil fuels on the atmosphere. However, meeting fuel demands with biofuels requires technological advancement for water productivity and scale of production. This may translate into increased water demands for biofuel crops and potential for conflicts with incumbent crops and other water uses including domestic, hydropower generation and environmental. It is therefore important to evaluate the effects of increased biofuel production on the verge of water scarcity costs and hydropower production. The present research applies a hydro-economic optimization model to compare different scenarios of irrigated biofuel and hydropower production, and estimates the potential tradeoffs. A case study from the Araguari watershed in Brazil is provided. These results should be useful to (i) identify improved water allocation among competing economic demands, (ii) support water management and operations decisions in watersheds where biofuels are expected to increase, and (iii) identify the impact of bio fuel production in the water availability and economic value. Under optimized conditions, adoption of sugar cane for biofuel production heavily relies on the opportunity costs of other crops and hydropower generation. Areas with a lower value crop groups seem more suitable to adopt sugar cane for biofuel when the price of ethanol is sufficiently high and the opportunity costs of hydropower productions are not conflicting. The approach also highlights the potential for insights in water management from studying regional versus larger scales bundled systems involving water use, food production and power generation.

  12. Development of a dynamic model to evaluate economic recovery following a nuclear attack. Volume 1. Description and simulations. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.W.; Silverman, W.S.; Weil, H.B.; Willard, S.

    1980-11-01

    A highly-robust, dynamic simulation model of the US economy has been constructed to evaluate the likely economic response after various nuclear attacks or other severe disruptions, under various policies and assumptions. The model consists of a large system of nonlinear, recursive, time-difference equations. The solution-interval of the model is adjustable, with a maximum value of three weeks. The model represents the economy in thirteen sectors. Each sector contains a detailed representation of production, distribution, supply constraints, finance, employment, pricing, and wages. Also included are a full input-output representation of the interconnections among the sectors, and the psychological responses of corporate planners, consumers, and the labor force. The model's equations are formulated to remain consistent and realistic for all values of the variables, including the most extreme conditions. Therefore, the model can realistically simulate any degree or time sequence of nuclear attacks, pre-attack surges, mobilization, or policy shifts. Simulation experiments with the model suggest that the economy is highly vulnerable to nuclear attack, and that recovery requires extensive preparation, including psychological readiness, technology maintenance, special financial policies, and (if possible) maintenance of foreign trade. Civil defense policies must be adaptive (contingent on the nature of the damage) and must strive for balance among sectors, rather than maximum survival. This volume includes two appendices. Appendix A defines the aggregation of the model. Appendix B outlines the range of attack scenarios, pre-attack civil defense policies, and post-attack civil defense policies that can be evaluated with the model, including the model variables applicable to implementing those policies

  13. Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wadim Strielkowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

  14. Development of the Mathematics of Learning Curve Models for Evaluating Small Modular Reactor Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2014-03-01

    This report documents the efforts to perform dynamic model validation on the Eastern Interconnection (EI) by modeling governor deadband. An on-peak EI dynamic model is modified to represent governor deadband characteristics. Simulation results are compared with synchrophasor measurements collected by the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). The comparison shows that by modeling governor deadband the simulated frequency response can closely align with the actual system response.

  15. Economic evaluation of fast breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieider, G.

    1979-03-01

    In order to clarify discrepancies between different contributions to INFCE SG-5A concerning economic assessments of FBRs an independent evaluation is performed with assumptions typical for the current views in Europe and USA. As a result bounding cases are shown for the influence of the natural uranium price on the permitted FBR-capital cost premium for break-even with LWRs

  16. A stochastic dynamic model of a dairy farm to evaluate the technical and economic performance under different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calsamiglia, S; Astiz, S; Baucells, J; Castillejos, L

    2018-05-23

    Dairy farms need to improve their competitiveness through decisions that are often difficult to evaluate because they are highly dependent on many economic and technical factors. The objective of this project was to develop a stochastic and dynamic mathematical model to simulate the functioning of a dairy farm to evaluate the effect of changes in technical or economic factors on performance and profitability. Submodels were developed for reproduction, feeding, diseases, heifers, environmental factors, facilities, management, and economics. All these submodels were simulated on an animal-by-animal and day-by-day basis. Default values for all variables are provided, but the user can change them. The outcome provides a list of technical and economic indicators essential for the decision-making process. Performance of the program was verified by evaluating the effects and sensitivity analysis of different scenarios in 20 different dairy farms. As an example, a case study of a dairy farm with 300 cows producing 40 L/d and a 12% pregnancy rate (PR) was used. The effect of using a time-fixed artificial insemination (TFAI) protocol in the first insemination at 77 d in milk, with 45 and 40% conception rates for first-lactation and older cows, respectively, and a cost of €13 was explored. During the 5-yr simulation, the TFAI increased PR (12 to 17%) and milk yield per milking cow (39.8 to 41.2 L/d) and reduced days to first AI (93 to 74), days open (143 to 116), and the proportion of problem cows (24.3 to 15.9%). In the TFAI, cows were dried 30 d earlier, resulting in more dry cows, and a smaller difference in milk yield by present cows (35.5 vs 36.0 L/d for control and TFAI, respectively). A longer productive life (2.56 vs. 2.79 yr) with shorter lactations in TFIA resulted in less first-lactation cows (42 vs 36%), 32 more calvings per year, and, therefore, more cases of postpartum diseases. Total (32.5 to 29.9%) and reproductive (10.5 vs 6.8%) culling rates decreased in

  17. Evaluating Economic Impacts of Expanded Global Wood Energy Consumption with the USFPM/GFPM Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Ince; Andrew Kramp; Kenneth E. Skog

    2012-01-01

    A U.S. forest sector market module was developed within the general Global Forest Products Model. The U.S. module tracks regional timber markets, timber harvests by species group, and timber product outputs in greater detail than does the global model. This hybrid approach provides detailed regional market analysis for the United States although retaining the...

  18. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  19. Stochastic modelling to evaluate the economic efficiency of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis

    OpenAIRE

    Steeneveld, W.; Hogeveen, H.; Borne, van den, B.H.P.; Swinkels, J.M.

    2006-01-01

    Treatment of subclinical mastitis is traditionally no common practice. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis. Factors in the model include, amongst others, the probability of spontaneous cure, probability of the cow becoming clinically diseased, trans...

  20. Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

    2014-02-01

    Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

  1. Belgian guidelines for economic evaluations: second edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiry, Nancy; Neyt, Mattias; Van De Sande, Stefaan; Cleemput, Irina

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to present the updated methodological guidelines for economic evaluations of healthcare interventions (drugs, medical devices, and other interventions) in Belgium. The update of the guidelines was performed by three Belgian health economists following feedback from users of the former guidelines and personal experience. The updated guidelines were discussed with a multidisciplinary team consisting of other health economists, assessors of reimbursement request files, representatives of Belgian databases and representatives of the drugs and medical devices industry. The final document was validated by three external validators that were not involved in the previous discussions. The guidelines give methodological guidance for the following components of an economic evaluation: literature review, perspective of the evaluation, definition of the target population, choice of the comparator, analytic technique and study design, calculation of costs, valuation of outcomes, definition of the time horizon, modeling, handling uncertainty and discounting. We present a reference case that can be considered as the minimal requirement for Belgian economic evaluations of health interventions. These guidelines will improve the methodological quality, transparency and uniformity of the economic evaluations performed in Belgium. The guidelines will also provide support to the researchers and assessors performing or evaluating economic evaluations.

  2. Stochastic modelling to evaluate the economic efficiency of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, W.; Hogeveen, H.; Borne, van den B.H.P.; Swinkels, J.M.

    2006-01-01

    Treatment of subclinical mastitis is traditionally no common practice. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of

  3. A full description of the Three-ME model: Multi-sector macro-economic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callonnec, Gael; Landa, Gissela; Malliet, Paul; Yeddir-Tamsamani, Yasser; Reynes, Frederic

    2013-01-01

    Since 2008, the ADEME and the OFCE are involved in a research convention to develop the model Three-ME. This document provides a full description of new version of the model. Three-ME is a new model of the French economy especially designed to evaluate the medium and long term impact of environmental and energy policies at the macro-economic and sector levels. To do so Three-ME combines two important features. Firstly, it has the main characteristics of neo-Keynesian models by assuming a slow adjustment of effective quantities and prices to their notional level, an endogenous money supply, a Taylor rule and a Philips curve. Compared to standard multi-sector CGEM, this has the advantage to allow for the existence of under-optimum equilibria such as the presence of involuntary unemployment. Secondly, Three-ME is a hybrid model in the sense that it combines the top-down approach of general equilibrium macro-economic models with elements of bottom-up models of energy models developed by engineers. As in bottom-up models, the amount of energy consumed is related to their use, that is the number of buildings or cars, and the energy class to which they belong. This hypothesis is more realistic compared to the assumption made in the majority of top-down models where energy consumption is usually directly related to income through a nested structure of utility function. (authors)

  4. Public health interventions: evaluating the economic evaluations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Forster

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent years have witnessed much progress in the incorporation of economic considerations into the evaluation of public health interventions. In England, the Centre for Public Health Excellence within the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence works to develop guidance for preventing illness and assessing which public health interventions are most effective and provide best value for money...

  5. Development of the Mathematics of Learning Curve Models for Evaluating Small Modular Reactor Economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, T. J. [ORNL

    2014-02-01

    The cost of nuclear power is a straightforward yet complicated topic. It is straightforward in that the cost of nuclear power is a function of the cost to build the nuclear power plant, the cost to operate and maintain it, and the cost to provide fuel for it. It is complicated in that some of those costs are not necessarily known, introducing uncertainty into the analysis. For large light water reactor (LWR)-based nuclear power plants, the uncertainty is mainly contained within the cost of construction. The typical costs of operations and maintenance (O&M), as well as fuel, are well known based on the current fleet of LWRs. However, the last currently operating reactor to come online was Watts Bar 1 in May 1996; thus, the expected construction costs for gigawatt (GW)-class reactors in the United States are based on information nearly two decades old. Extrapolating construction, O&M, and fuel costs from GW-class LWRs to LWR-based small modular reactors (SMRs) introduces even more complication. The per-installed-kilowatt construction costs for SMRs are likely to be higher than those for the GW-class reactors based on the property of the economy of scale. Generally speaking, the economy of scale is the tendency for overall costs to increase slower than the overall production capacity. For power plants, this means that doubling the power production capacity would be expected to cost less than twice as much. Applying this property in the opposite direction, halving the power production capacity would be expected to cost more than half as much. This can potentially make the SMRs less competitive in the electricity market against the GW-class reactors, as well as against other power sources such as natural gas and subsidized renewables. One factor that can potentially aid the SMRs in achieving economic competitiveness is an economy of numbers, as opposed to the economy of scale, associated with learning curves. The basic concept of the learning curve is that the more a

  6. A spatial model for the economic evaluation of biomass production systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei Liu; Phillips, V.D.; Singh, Devindar

    1992-01-01

    A system model for estimating short-rotation, intensive-culture woody biomass production costs, including establishment, maintenance, harvesting, and transport costs, was developed and applied to the island of Kauai. Using data from existing large-plot field trials, biomass yield of the tropical hardwood Eucalyptus saligna was predicted from site-specific factors such as local weather and soil conditions and management strategies. Possible harvesting systems were identified and associated harvesting costs were estimated. The distances from the plantation sites to a bio-conversion plant located at the Lihue sugar mill were calculated based on existing road networks. The delivered cost of biomass on a dollar per dry metric ton (Mg) basis was then calculated using a discounted cash flow method. A geographic information system was interfaced with the biomass system model to access a database and present results in map form. Under the most favorable management strategy modeled, approximately 330 x 10 3 dry Mg year -1 of Eucalyptus saligna could be produced from 12,000 ha at a delivered cost of $25-38 per dry Mg chips. (author)

  7. Health economic evaluation in England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftery, James

    2014-01-01

    The 2010 National Health Service Constitution for England specified rights and responsibilities, including health economic evaluation for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisations. The National Screening Committee and the Health Protection Agency also provide advice to the Government based on health economic evaluation. Each agency largely follows the methods specified by NICE. To distinguish the methods from neoclassical economics they have been termed "extra-welfarist". Key differences include measurement and valuation of both benefits (QALYs) and costs (healthcare related). Policy on discounting has also changed over time and by agency. The debate over having NICE's methods align more closely with neoclassical economics has been prominent in the ongoing development of "value based pricing". The political unacceptability of some decisions has led to special funding for technologies not recommended by NICE. These include the 2002 Multiple Sclerosis Risk Sharing Scheme and the 2010 Cancer Drugs Fund as well as special arrangements for technologies linked to the end of life and for innovation. Since 2009 Patient Access Schemes have made price reductions possible which sometimes enables drugs to meet NICE's cost-effectiveness thresholds. As a result, the National Health Service in England has denied few technologies on grounds of cost-effectiveness. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  8. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  9. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  10. Comparing bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: economic evaluation based on transmission model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Chapman, Ruth; Hughes, Owain; Choi, Yoon Hong

    2011-09-27

    To compare the effect and cost effectiveness of bivalent and quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, taking into account differences in licensure indications, protection against non-vaccine type disease, protection against disease related to HPV types 6 and 11, and reported long term immunogenicity. A model of HPV transmission and disease previously used to inform UK vaccination policy, updated with recent evidence and expanded to include scenarios where the two vaccines differ in duration of protection, cross protection, and end points prevented. United Kingdom. Population Males and females aged 12-75 years. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios for both vaccines and additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective as the bivalent vaccine. The bivalent vaccine needs to be cheaper than the quadrivalent vaccine to be equally cost effective, mainly because of its lack of protection against anogenital warts. The price difference per dose ranges from a median of £19 (interquartile range £12-£27) to £35 (£27-£44) across scenarios about vaccine duration, cross protection, and end points prevented (assuming one quality adjusted life year (QALY) is valued at £30,000 and both vaccines can prevent all types of HPV related cancers). The quadrivalent vaccine may have an advantage over the bivalent vaccine in reducing healthcare costs and QALYs lost. The bivalent vaccine may have an advantage in preventing death due to cancer. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the differential benefit of the two vaccines.

  11. An analysis of the influence of framework aspects on the study design of health economic modeling evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurtner, Sebastian

    2013-04-01

    Research and practical guidelines have many implications for how to structure a health economic study. A major focus in recent decades has been the quality of health economic research. In practice, the factors influencing a study design are not limited to the quest for quality. Moreover, the framework of the study is important. This research addresses three major questions related to these framework aspects. First, we want to know whether the design of health economic studies has changed over time. Second, we want to know how the subject of a study, whether it is a process or product innovation, influences the parameters of the study design. Third, one of the most important questions we will answer is whether and how the study's source of funding has an impact on the design of the research. To answer these questions, a total of 234 health economic studies were analyzed using a correspondence analysis and a logistic regression analysis. All three categories of framework factors have an influence on the aspects of the study design. Health economic studies have evolved over time, leading to the use of more advanced methods like complex sensitivity analyses. Additionally, the patient's point of view has increased in importance. The evaluation of product innovations has focused more on utility concepts. On the other hand, the source of funding may influence only a few aspects of the study design, such as the use of evaluation methods, the source of data, and the use of certain utility measures. The most important trends in health care, such as the emphasis on the patients' point of view, become increasingly established in health economic evaluations with the passage of time. Although methodological challenges remain, modern information and communication technologies provide a basis for increasing the complexity and quality of health economic studies if used frequently.

  12. An Economic Evaluation of Tofacitinib Treatment in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Modeling the Cost of Treatment Strategies in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Claxton, Lindsay; Jenks, Michelle; Taylor, Matthew; Wallenstein, Gene; Mendelsohn, Alan M; Bourret, Jeffrey A; Singh, Amitabh; Moynagh, Dermot; Gerber, Robert A

    2016-09-01

    Tofacitinib is an oral Janus kinase inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Tofacitinib is approved in the United States for use in adults with moderately to severely active RA and an inadequate response or intolerance to methotrexate. To (a) evaluate, using an economic model, the treatment costs of an RA strategy including tofacitinib, compared with adalimumab, etanercept, certolizumab and tocilizumab biologic RA treatment strategies, which are commonly prescribed in the United States, and (b) assess the economic impact of monotherapy and combination therapy in patients who had an inadequate response to methotrexate therapy (MTX-IR analysis) and to combination therapy in patients who had an inadequate response to a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNF-IR analysis). A transparent, Excel-based economic model with a decision-tree approach was developed to evaluate costs over a 1- and 2-year time horizon. The model compared tofacitinib 5 mg twice a day (BID) either as monotherapy or in combination with MTX with similarly labeled biologic therapies. Response to treatment was modeled as American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20/50/70 response. ACR20 represented clinical response and determined whether patients continued therapy. ACR response rates at 6-month intervals were sourced from prescribing information and safety event rates from a published meta-analysis. Following an adverse event or a lack of response to treatment, it was assumed that 75% of patients switched to the next line of treatment (first to abatacept and then to rituximab). The perspective was that of a U.S. payer. Costs were reported in 2015 U.S. dollars and included drug wholesale acquisition costs, monitoring, drug administration, and treatment for minor and serious adverse events. The patient population eligible for treatment was based on the total number of members (i.e., RA and non-RA) in a payer organization; members with RA treated with biologic therapies were estimated using

  13. An economic evaluation of solar radiation management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan [CICERO — Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (Norway); Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene [Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo (Norway); Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

    2015-11-01

    Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative.

  14. An economic evaluation of solar radiation management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

    2015-01-01

    Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative

  15. A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomini, F.; van Asselt, A. D.

    OBJECTIVES: Cardiac resynchronization therapy with biventricular pacemaker (CRT-P) is considered an effective treatment for heart failure (HF). Adding implantable cardioverter defibrillators (CRT-D) may further reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, economic evaluations have shown

  16. A review of economic evaluation models for cardiac resynchronization therapy with implantable cardioverter defibrillators in patients with heart failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomini, F.; van Asselt, A. D.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Cardiac resynchronization therapy with biventricular pacemaker (CRT-P) is considered an effective treatment for heart failure (HF). Adding implantable cardioverter defibrillators (CRT-D) may further reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, economic evaluations have shown

  17. Economic models for battery energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

  18. Economic and quality of care evaluation of dialysis service models in remote Australia: protocol for a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorham, Gillian; Howard, Kirsten; Togni, Samantha; Lawton, Paul; Hughes, Jaquelyne; Majoni, Sandawana William; Brown, Sarah; Barnes, Sue; Cass, Alan

    2017-05-03

    Australia's Northern Territory (NT) has the country's highest incidence and prevalence of kidney disease. Indigenous people from remote areas suffer the heaviest disease burden. Concerns regarding cost and sustainability limit the provision of dialysis treatments in remote areas and most Indigenous people requiring dialysis relocate to urban areas. However, this dislocation of people from their family, community and support networks may prove more costly when the broader health, societal and economic consequences for the individual, family and whole of government are considered. The Dialysis Models of Care Study is a large cross organisation mixed methods study. It includes a retrospective (2000-2014) longitudinal data linkage study of two NT cohorts: Renal Cohort 1- comprising approximately 2000 adults who received dialysis and Renal Cohort 2- comprising approximately 400 children of those adults. Linkage of administrative data sets from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry, NT Departments of Health, Housing and Education by a specialist third party (SA/NT Datalink) will enable extraction of activity, financial and outcome data. Interviews with patients, clinicians and service providers, using a snowball technique, will canvass relevant issues and assist in determining the full costs and impacts of the five most used dialysis Models of Care. The study uses a mixed methods approach to investigate the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of the full costs and outcomes associated with the choice of particular dialysis models of care for any given patient. The study includes a large data linkage component that for the first time links health, housing and education data to fully analyse and evaluate the impact on patients, their families and the broader community, resulting from the relocation of people for treatment. The study will generate a large amount of activity, financial and qualitative data that will investigate health costs less

  19. Conducting systematic reviews of economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomersall, Judith Streak; Jadotte, Yuri Tertilus; Xue, Yifan; Lockwood, Suzi; Riddle, Dru; Preda, Alin

    2015-09-01

    In 2012, a working group was established to review and enhance the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) guidance for conducting systematic review of evidence from economic evaluations addressing a question(s) about health intervention cost-effectiveness. The objective is to present the outcomes of the working group. The group conducted three activities to inform the new guidance: review of literature on the utility/futility of systematic reviews of economic evaluations and consideration of its implications for updating the existing methodology; assessment of the critical appraisal tool in the existing guidance against criteria that promotes validity in economic evaluation research and two other commonly used tools; and a workshop. The debate in the literature on the limitations/value of systematic review of economic evidence cautions that systematic reviews of economic evaluation evidence are unlikely to generate one size fits all answers to questions about the cost-effectiveness of interventions and their comparators. Informed by this finding, the working group adjusted the framing of the objectives definition in the existing JBI methodology. The shift is away from defining the objective as to determine one cost-effectiveness measure toward summarizing study estimates of cost-effectiveness and informed by consideration of the included study characteristics (patient, setting, intervention component, etc.), identifying conditions conducive to lowering costs and maximizing health benefits. The existing critical appraisal tool was included in the new guidance. The new guidance includes the recommendation that a tool designed specifically for the purpose of appraising model-based studies be used together with the generic appraisal tool for economic evaluations assessment to evaluate model-based evaluations. The guidance produced by the group offers reviewers guidance for each step of the systematic review process, which are the same steps followed in JBI reviews of other

  20. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

    1980-09-01

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  1. Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Kit N

    2010-05-01

    To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

  2. Costing bias in economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frappier, Julie; Tremblay, Gabriel; Charny, Mark; Cloutier, L Martin

    2015-01-01

    Determining the cost-effectiveness of healthcare interventions is key to the decision-making process in healthcare. Cost comparisons are used to demonstrate the economic value of treatment options, to evaluate the impact on the insurer budget, and are often used as a key criterion in treatment comparison and comparative effectiveness; however, little guidance is available to researchers for establishing the costing of clinical events and resource utilization. Different costing methods exist, and the choice of underlying assumptions appears to have a significant impact on the results of the costing analysis. This editorial describes the importance of the choice of the costing technique and it's potential impact on the relative cost of treatment options. This editorial also calls for a more efficient approach to healthcare intervention costing in order to ensure the use of consistent costing in the decision-making process.

  3. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  4. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  5. On the Economic Evaluation of Volatility Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voev, Valeri

    We analyze the applicability of economic criteria for volatility forecast evaluation based on unconditional measures of portfolio performance. The main theoretical finding is that such unconditional measures generally fail to rank conditional forecasts correctly due to the presence of a bias term...... driven by the variability of the conditional mean and portfolio weights. Simulations and a small empirical study suggest that the bias can be empirically substantial and lead to distortions in forecast evaluation. An important implication is that forecasting superiority of models using high frequency...

  6. Solar photovoltaic. Competitiveness and economic evaluation. Comparative and models; Energia solar fotovoltaica. Competitividad y evaluacion economica. comparativa y modelos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collado Fernandez, E.; Colmenar Santos, A.; Peire Arroba, J.; Carpio Ibanez, J.; Castro Gil, M. A.

    2010-07-01

    Limits have been evaluated in the medium and long term economic competitiveness of solar photovoltaic energy in general and Spain in particular, considering the level of evolution that must have this form of energy production, until it become cevitamin with the other traditional energy sources and other emerging growth. to conduct the study, has developed a scenario-based methodology photovoltaic, which has taken account of the Spanish state regulation because it is vital operation on the road to real competitiveness relative to other types of energy. (Author) 10 refs.

  7. Development of a dynamic model to evaluate economic recovery following a nuclear attack. Volume 2. Model equations (appendices C and D). Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.W.; Silverman, W.S.; Weil, H.B.; Willard, S.

    1980-11-01

    A highly-robust, dynamic simulation model of the US economy has been constructed to evaluate the likely economic response after various nuclear attacks or other severe disruptions, under various policies and assumptions. The model consists of a large system of nonlinear, recursive, time-difference equations. The solution-interval of the model is adjustable, with a maximum value of three weeks. The model represents the economy in thirteen sectors. Each sector contains a detailed representation of production, distribution, supply constraints, finance, employment, pricing, and wages. Also included are a full input-output representation of the interconnections among the sectors, and the psychological responses of corporate planners, consumers, and the labor force. The model's equations are formulated to remain consistent and realistic for all values of the variables, including the most extreme conditions. Therefore, the model can realistically simulate any degree or time sequence of nuclear attacks, pre-attack surges, mobilization, or policy shifts. Simulation experiments with the model suggest that the economy is highly vulnerable to nuclear attack, and that recovery requires extensive preparation, including psychological readiness, technology maintenance, special financial policies, and (if possible) maintenance of foreign trade. Civil defense policies must be adaptive (contingent on the nature of the damage) and must strive for balance among sectors, rather than maximum survival. The simulation model itself consists of an interrelated set of mathematical equations, written in the computer language DYNAMO. Two appendices to the report are presented in this volume. Appendix C gives a brief introduction to the conventions and notations of the DYNAMO language. The equations, definitions, and variables of the model are listed in Appendix D. For the convenience of the reader, these two appendices are bound separately

  8. Evaluating the economic damages of transport disruptions using a transnational and interregional input-output model for Japan, China, and South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irimoto, Hiroshi; Shibusawa, Hiroyuki; Miyata, Yuzuru

    2017-10-01

    Damage to transportation networks as a result of natural disasters can lead to economic losses due to lost trade along those links in addition to the costs of damage to the infrastructure itself. This study evaluates the economic damages of transport disruptions such as highways, tunnels, bridges, and ports using a transnational and interregional Input-Output Model that divides the world into 23 regions: 9 regions in Japan, 7 regions in China, and 4 regions in Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN5, and the USA to allow us to focus on Japan's regional and international links. In our simulation, economic ripple effects of both international and interregional transport disruptions are measured by changes in the trade coefficients in the input-output model. The simulation showed that, in the case of regional links in Japan, a transport disruption in the Kanmon Straits causes the most damage to our targeted world, resulting in economic damage of approximately 36.3 billion. In the case of international links among Japan, China, and Korea, damage to the link between Kanto in Japan and Huabei in China causes economic losses of approximately 31.1 billion. Our result highlights the importance of disaster prevention in the Kanmon Straits, Kanto, and Huabei to help ensure economic resilience.

  9. ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria G. MACOVEI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

  10. Health economic modeling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes, and related macrosomia - a pilot evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; van der Beek, Eline M; Garssen, Johan; Nuijten, Mark J C; Uauy, Ricardo D

    2015-01-01

    Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and associated with increased morbidity for mother and child in the perinatal period. Poorly controlled diabetes during pregnancy, pre- pregnancy maternal obesity and/or excessive maternal weight gain during pregnancy are associated with intermittent periods of fetal exposure to hyperglycemia and subsequent hyperinsulinemia, leading to increased birth weight (e.g., macrosomia), body adiposity, and glycogen storage in the liver. Macrosomia is associated with an increased risk of developing obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus later in life. Provide insight in the short-term health-economic impact of maternal overweight, GDM, and related macrosomia. To this end, a health economic framework was designed. This pilot study also aims to encourage further health technology assessments, based on country- and population-specific data. The estimation of the direct health-economic burden of maternal overweight, GDM and related macrosomia indicates that associated healthcare expenditures are substantial. The calculation of a budget impact of GDM, based on a conservative approach of our model, using USA costing data, indicates an annual cost of more than $1,8 billion without taking into account long-term consequences. Although overweight and obesity are a recognized concern worldwide, less attention has been given to the health economic consequences of these conditions in women of child-bearing age and their offspring. The presented outcomes underline the need for preventive management strategies and public health interventions on life style, diet and physical activity. Also, the predisposition in people of Asian ethnicity to develop diabetes emphasizes the urgent need to collect more country

  11. Economic and environmental evaluation model for selecting the optimum design of green roof systems in elementary schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, JiMin; Hong, TaeHoon; Koo, Choong-Wan

    2012-08-07

    Green-roof systems offer various benefits to man and nature, such as establishing ecological environments, improving landscape and air quality, and offering pleasant living environments. This study aimed to develop an optimal-scenario selection model that considers both the economic and the environmental effect in applying GRSs to educational facilities. The following process was carried out: (i) 15 GRSs scenarios were established by combining three soil and five plant types and (ii) the results of the life cycle CO(2) analyses with the GRSs scenarios were converted to an economic value using certified emission reductions (CERs) carbon credits. Life cycle cost (LCC) analyses were performed based on these results. The results showed that when considering only the currently realized economic value, the conventional roof system is superior to the GRSs. However, the LCC analysis that included the environmental value, revealed that compared to the conventional roof system, the following six GRSs scenarios are superior (cost reduction; reduction ratio; in descending order): scenarios 13 ($195,229; 11.0%), 3 ($188,178; 10.6%), 8 ($181,558; 10.3%), 12 ($130,464; 7.4%), 2 ($124,566; 7.0%), and 7 ($113,931; 6.4%). Although the effect is relatively small in terms of cost reduction, environmental value attributes cannot be ignored in terms of the reduction ratio.

  12. The integrated economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syrota, J.; Cirelli, J.F.; Brimont, S.; Lyle, C.; Nossent, G.; Moraleda, P.

    2005-01-01

    The setting up of the European energy market has triggered a radical change of the context within with the energy players operated. The natural markets of the incumbent operators, which were formerly demarcated by national and even regional borders, have extended to at least the scale of the European Union. In addition to their geographical development strategy, gas undertakings are diversifying their portfolios towards both upstream as well as downstream activities of the gas chain, and/or extending their offers to other energies and services. Energy players' strategies are rather complex and sometimes give the impression that of being based on contradictory decisions. Some operators widen their field of operations, whereas others specialize in a limited number of activities. This Round Table provides an opportunity to compare business models as adopted by the major gas undertakings in response to structural changes observed in various countries over recent years

  13. The Economic Evaluation Model of the Use of the Intangible Resources Potential on the Example of Russian Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena V. Mikhalkina

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the problem of assessing the potential use of intangible resources. The relevance of the research is determined by the necessity of innovation-based economy, the growing role of intangible resources (human, social, organizational, intellectual and other kinds of capital in promoting economic development of individual regions and the country as a whole. The paper proposes a verification method of the factors that characterize the potential use of intangible resources, affecting productivity. For a description of dependencies linear regression model was selected, also there was carried out an assessment of its parameters and performed Quality check of model. In the course of a capacity assessment intangible resource model constructing at the regional level was used regression analysis (the choice of indicator system, data collection and analysis, the calculation of the correlation coefficient, the choice of models and numerical estimation of its parameters, quality control model, assessment of the certain factors impact on the basis of the model. Also the factor analysis is used (matrix of factor loadings, and the classification on the basis of the factors selected regions is carried out. The regional clusterization of the intangible resources capacity will allow to make correct management decisions in the future.

  14. Economic efficiency evaluation of merges and acquisitions in the sector of industry based on nonlinear model of synergistical growth of an industrial corporation value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov A.E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerous research works of the end of the 20th and of the beginning of the 21st century prove that the synergistic effect often declared as the main goal of merges and acquisitions is not generated in fact. This is due to imperfection of the available methodology of its economic evaluation that does not take into account a nonlinear nature of the pooled corporation development. The article suggests a methodology of economic efficiency evaluation of merges and acquisitions in the sector of industry based on identification of synergistically successful acquisition order parameters. These are synergistic effects that with minimal investments in their achievement lead to a disproportionate increase in the value of an industrial corporation. A mathematical model has been created simulating the influence of these investments on the value of an industrial corporation. The model allows one to increase the degree of the decisions validity in merges and acquisitions in the sector of industry.

  15. The use of economic evaluation in CAM: an introductory framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Emily; Solomon, Daniela; Adams, Jon; Graves, Nicholas

    2010-11-11

    For CAM to feature prominently in health care decision-making there is a need to expand the evidence-base and to further incorporate economic evaluation into research priorities.In a world of scarce health care resources and an emphasis on efficiency and clinical efficacy, CAM, as indeed do all other treatments, requires rigorous evaluation to be considered in budget decision-making. Economic evaluation provides the tools to measure the costs and health consequences of CAM interventions and thereby inform decision making. This article offers CAM researchers an introductory framework for understanding, undertaking and disseminating economic evaluation. The types of economic evaluation available for the study of CAM are discussed, and decision modelling is introduced as a method for economic evaluation with much potential for use in CAM. Two types of decision models are introduced, decision trees and Markov models, along with a worked example of how each method is used to examine costs and health consequences. This is followed by a discussion of how this information is used by decision makers. Undoubtedly, economic evaluation methods form an important part of health care decision making. Without formal training it can seem a daunting task to consider economic evaluation, however, multidisciplinary teams provide an opportunity for health economists, CAM practitioners and other interested researchers, to work together to further develop the economic evaluation of CAM.

  16. The use of economic evaluation in CAM: an introductory framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background For CAM to feature prominently in health care decision-making there is a need to expand the evidence-base and to further incorporate economic evaluation into research priorities. In a world of scarce health care resources and an emphasis on efficiency and clinical efficacy, CAM, as indeed do all other treatments, requires rigorous evaluation to be considered in budget decision-making. Methods Economic evaluation provides the tools to measure the costs and health consequences of CAM interventions and thereby inform decision making. This article offers CAM researchers an introductory framework for understanding, undertaking and disseminating economic evaluation. The types of economic evaluation available for the study of CAM are discussed, and decision modelling is introduced as a method for economic evaluation with much potential for use in CAM. Two types of decision models are introduced, decision trees and Markov models, along with a worked example of how each method is used to examine costs and health consequences. This is followed by a discussion of how this information is used by decision makers. Conclusions Undoubtedly, economic evaluation methods form an important part of health care decision making. Without formal training it can seem a daunting task to consider economic evaluation, however, multidisciplinary teams provide an opportunity for health economists, CAM practitioners and other interested researchers, to work together to further develop the economic evaluation of CAM. PMID:21067622

  17. The use of economic evaluation in CAM: an introductory framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adams Jon

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background For CAM to feature prominently in health care decision-making there is a need to expand the evidence-base and to further incorporate economic evaluation into research priorities. In a world of scarce health care resources and an emphasis on efficiency and clinical efficacy, CAM, as indeed do all other treatments, requires rigorous evaluation to be considered in budget decision-making. Methods Economic evaluation provides the tools to measure the costs and health consequences of CAM interventions and thereby inform decision making. This article offers CAM researchers an introductory framework for understanding, undertaking and disseminating economic evaluation. The types of economic evaluation available for the study of CAM are discussed, and decision modelling is introduced as a method for economic evaluation with much potential for use in CAM. Two types of decision models are introduced, decision trees and Markov models, along with a worked example of how each method is used to examine costs and health consequences. This is followed by a discussion of how this information is used by decision makers. Conclusions Undoubtedly, economic evaluation methods form an important part of health care decision making. Without formal training it can seem a daunting task to consider economic evaluation, however, multidisciplinary teams provide an opportunity for health economists, CAM practitioners and other interested researchers, to work together to further develop the economic evaluation of CAM.

  18. Evaluation of economical introduction of nuclear fusion based on a long-term world energy and environment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, K.; Asaoka, Y.; Okano, K.; Konishi, S.; Ogawa, Y.; Yamaji, K.

    2003-01-01

    Debates about whether or not to invest heavily in nuclear fusion as a future innovative energy option have been made within the context of energy technology development strategies. The time frame by which nuclear fusion could become competitive in the energy market has not been adequately studied, nor has roles of the nuclear fusion in energy systems and the environment. The present study has two objectives. One is to reveal the conditions under which nuclear fusion could be introduced economically (hereafter, we refer to such introductory conditions as breakeven prices) in future energy systems. The other objective is to evaluate the future roles of nuclear fusion in energy systems and in the environment. Here we chose two roles that nuclear fusion will take on when breakeven prices are achieved: i) reduction of annual global total energy systems cost, and ii) mitigation of carbon tax (shadow price of carbon) under CO 2 constraints. Future uncertainties are key issues in evaluating nuclear fusion. Here we treated the following uncertainties: energy demand scenarios, introduction time frame for nuclear fusion, capacity projections of nuclear fusion, CO 2 target in 2100. From our investigations, we conclude that the presently designed nuclear fusion reactors may be ready for economical introduction into energy systems beginning around 2050-2060, and we can confirm that the favorable introduction of the reactors would reduce both the annual energy systems cost and the carbon tax (the shadow price of carbon) under a CO 2 concentration constraint; however, latter introduction of them decreases the cost and the tax less than five times. Earlier introduction of nuclear fusion reactors are desirable for energy systems and environment. (author)

  19. Modeling Acequia Irrigation Systems Using System Dynamics: Model Development, Evaluation, and Sensitivity Analyses to Investigate Effects of Socio-Economic and Biophysical Feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin L. Turner

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Agriculture-based irrigation communities of northern New Mexico have survived for centuries despite the arid environment in which they reside. These irrigation communities are threatened by regional population growth, urbanization, a changing demographic profile, economic development, climate change, and other factors. Within this context, we investigated the extent to which community resource management practices centering on shared resources (e.g., water for agricultural in the floodplains and grazing resources in the uplands and mutualism (i.e., shared responsibility of local residents to maintaining traditional irrigation policies and upholding cultural and spiritual observances embedded within the community structure influence acequia function. We used a system dynamics modeling approach as an interdisciplinary platform to integrate these systems, specifically the relationship between community structure and resource management. In this paper we describe the background and context of acequia communities in northern New Mexico and the challenges they face. We formulate a Dynamic Hypothesis capturing the endogenous feedbacks driving acequia community vitality. Development of the model centered on major stock-and-flow components, including linkages for hydrology, ecology, community, and economics. Calibration metrics were used for model evaluation, including statistical correlation of observed and predicted values and Theil inequality statistics. Results indicated that the model reproduced trends exhibited by the observed system. Sensitivity analyses of socio-cultural processes identified absentee decisions, cumulative income effect on time in agriculture, and land use preference due to time allocation, community demographic effect, effect of employment on participation, and farm size effect as key determinants of system behavior and response. Sensitivity analyses of biophysical parameters revealed that several key parameters (e.g., acres per

  20. Desalination Economic Evaluation Program (DEEP). User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    DEEP (formerly named ''Co-generation and Desalination Economic Evaluation'' Spreadsheet, CDEE) has been developed originally by General Atomics under contract, and has been used in the IAEA's feasibility studies. For further confidence in the software, it was validated in March 1998. After that, a user friendly version has been issued under the name of DEEP at the end of 1998. DEEP output includes the levelised cost of water and power, a breakdown of cost components, energy consumption and net saleable power for each selected option. Specific power plants can be modelled by adjustment of input data including design power, power cycle parameters and costs

  1. Presentation of the Three-ME model: Multi-sector macro-economic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, Frederic; Yeddir-Tamsamani, Yasser; Callonnec, Gael

    2011-05-01

    This paper presents the structure and the main properties of Three-ME. This new model of the French economy has been especially designed to evaluate the medium and long term impact of environmental and energy policies at the macro-economic and sector levels. To do so Three-ME combines two important features. Firstly, it has the main characteristics of neo-Keynesian models by assuming a slow adjustment of effective quantities and prices to their notional level. Compared to standard multi-sectors CGEM, this has the advantage to allow for the existence of under-optimum equilibriums such as the presence of involuntary unemployment. Secondly, production and consumption structures are represented with a generalized CES function which allows for the elasticity of substitution to differ between each couple of inputs or goods. This is an improvement compared to the standard approach that uses nested CES functions which has the disadvantage to impose a common elasticity of substitution between the goods located in two different nested structures. (authors)

  2. Economic evaluation of CISM : a pilot study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vogt, Joachim

    2004-01-01

    air traffic controllers, critical incident stress management, CISM, critical incidents, critical incident stress, cost-benefit-analysis, economic evaluation, efficiency, return on investment......air traffic controllers, critical incident stress management, CISM, critical incidents, critical incident stress, cost-benefit-analysis, economic evaluation, efficiency, return on investment...

  3. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  4. Unpaid work in health economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner

    2015-11-01

    Given its societal importance, unpaid work should be included in economic evaluations of health care technology aiming to take a societal perspective. However, in practice this does not often appear to be the case. This paper provides an overview of the current place of unpaid work in economic evaluations in theory and in practice. It does so first by summarizing recommendations regarding the inclusion of unpaid labor reported in health economic textbooks and national guidelines for economic evaluations. In total, three prominent health economic text-books were studied and 28 national health economic guidelines. The paper, moreover, provides an overview of the instruments available to measure lost unpaid labor and reports on a review of the place of unpaid labor in applied economic evaluations in the area of rheumatoid arthritis. The review was conducted by examining methodology of evaluations published between 1 March 2008 and 1 March 2013. The results of this study show that little guidance is offered regarding the inclusion of unpaid labor in economic evaluations in textbooks and guidelines. The review identified five productivity costs instruments including questions about unpaid work and 33 economic evaluations of treatments for rheumatoid arthritis of which only one included unpaid work. The results indicate that unpaid work is rarely included in applied economic evaluations of treatments for rheumatoid arthritis, despite this disease expecting to be associated with lost unpaid work. Given the strong effects of certain diseases and treatments on the ability to perform unpaid work, unpaid work currently receives less attention in economic evaluations than it deserves. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Lithofacies modeling by multipoint statistics and economic evaluation by NPV volume for the early Cretaceous Wabiskaw Member in Athabasca oilsands area, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang Hyun Kim

    2018-03-01

    As Wabiskaw Member is frontier oilsands lease, it is impossible to evaluate the economics from production data or dynamic simulation. In this study, a dynamic steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD performance indicator (SPIDER on the basis of reservoir characteristics is calculated to build 3D reservoir model for the evaluation of the SAGD feasibility in Wabiskaw Member. SPIDER depends on reservoir properties, economic limit of steam-oil ratio, and bitumen price. Reservoir properties like porosity, permeability, and water saturation are measured from 13 cores and calculated from 201 well-logs. Three dimensional volumes of reservoir properties are constructed mostly based on relationships among properties. Finally, net present value (NPV volume can be built by equation relating NPV and SPIDER. The economic area exceeding criterion of US$ 10,000 is identified, and the ranges of reservoir properties are estimated. NPV-volume-generation workflow from reservoir parameter to static model provides cost- and time- effective method to evaluate the oilsands SAGD project.

  6. Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Kravtsova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

  7. ECONOMIC THEORY OF LOBBYING: EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Павел Александрович Толстых

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available In this article the author continues to analyze lobbying with regards to economic paradigm. [The author has started discussing lobbying in terms of economic theory in the article Politico-economic theory of lobbying / / Historical, philosophical, political and legal sciences, culture and art. Theory and practice. Tambov: Gramota, 2013. No 1. Part 2. p. 177-189.] Researcher evaluates the cost effectiveness of the lobbying function. Lobbying is understood as activity of specifically authorized employees of corporations and lobbying firms representing their interests, trade associations. This activity is aimed at improving the profitability of integrated and sustainable business development by representing  long-term, comfortable, predictable system of relationships with the relevant field-specific political stakeholders of the federal and regional levels. The article presents an in-depth analysis of economic concepts of lobbying function.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-1-3

  8. ECONOMIC THEORY OF LOBBYING: EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolstyh Pavel Aleksandrovich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article the author continues to analyze lobbying with regards to economic paradigm. [The author has started discussing lobbying in terms of economic theory in the article Politico-economic theory of lobbying / / Historical, philosophical, political and legal sciences, culture and art. Theory and practice. Tambov: Gramota, 2013. No 1. Part 2. p. 177-189.] Researcher evaluates the cost effectiveness of the lobbying function. Lobbying is understood as activity of specifically authorized employees of corporations and lobbying firms representing their interests, trade associations. This activity is aimed at improving the profitability of integrated and sustainable business development by representing long-term, comfortable, predictable system of relationships with the relevant field-specific political stakeholders of the federal and regional levels. The article presents an in-depth analysis of economic concepts of lobbying function.

  9. Economic Benefit Evaluation and Application of Northwest Rural Eco-Campus Based on Principal Component Projection Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wei, Hong-ying; Wang, Lan-ying; Qiu, Yu-qiao

    2009-01-01

    Financial cost benefit (investment yield, financial net present value, benefit-cost ratio), social and economic benefits (saving rate of medical cost, average household income rate of trained farmers), technical and economic benefits (toilet-flushing water saves, pests and disease reduce rate, fruit or vegetable increase rate, and improve rate of technical skill level), and ecological and economic benefits (saving rate of afforestation cost, reduction of CO2 discharge, reduction of SO2 discha...

  10. PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

  11. EPA's landfill methane outreach program: demonstration of the new E-PLUS economic evaluation model: future trends and activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kerr, T.; Paleyanda, P.; Forbes, C.D.

    1997-01-01

    Landfills contain most of the municipal solid waste (MSW) generated in the United States. As this landfilled MSW decomposes, it produces landfill gas (LFG), containing approximately 50% methane, 43-47% carbon dioxide, and 3-7% non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs). Federal regulations require affected landfills to collect and combust their LFG emissions in order to destroy NMOCs, as they are important precursors to local smog. Since 1994, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Landfill Methane Outreach Program (LMOP) has been working to promote LFG-to-energy as a cost-effective way to reduce emissions of methane - a potent greenhouse gas. The LMOP's latest tool is ''E-PLUS'', Windows-compatible software that can be used to screen potential LFG-to-energy projects. E-PLUS, the Energy Project Landfill Gas Utilization Software, is capable of evaluating the economic feasibility of two energy recovery technologies based on potential LFG emissions estimates. This paper provides an overview of E-PLUS and describes its features and functions in detail. (author)

  12. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  13. Efficiency of economic development models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Camelia Iacob

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

  14. Economic evaluation of integrated care: an introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hindrik Vondeling

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Integrated care has emerged in a variety of forms in industrialised countries during the past decade. It is generally assumed that these new arrangements result in increased effectiveness and quality of care, while being cost-effective or even cost-saving at the same time. However, systematic evaluation, including an evaluation of the relative costs and benefits of these arrangements, has largely been lacking. Objectives: To stimulate fruitful dialogue and debate about the need for economic evaluation in integrated care, and to outline possibilities for undertaking economic appraisal studies in this relatively new field. Theory: Key concepts, including e.g. scarcity and opportunity costs, are introduced, followed by a brief overview of the most common methods used in economic evaluation of health care programmes. Then a number of issues that seem particularly relevant for economic evaluation of integrated care arrangements are addressed in more detail, illustrated with examples from the literature. Conclusion and discussion: There is a need for well-designed economic evaluation studies of integrated care arrangements, in particular in order to support decision making on the long-term financing of these programmes. Although relatively few studies have been done to date, the field is challenging from a methodological point of view, offering analysts a wealth of opportunities. Guidance to realise these opportunities is provided by the general principles for economic evaluation, which can be tailored to the requirements of this particular field.

  15. A health economic model for the development and evaluation of innovations in aged care: an application to consumer-directed care-study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliffe, Julie; Lancsar, Emily; Luszcz, Mary; Crotty, Maria; Gray, Len; Paterson, Jan; Cameron, Ian D

    2014-06-25

    Consumer-directed care is currently being embraced within Australia and internationally as a means of promoting autonomy and choice in the delivery of health and aged care services. Despite its wide proliferation little research has been conducted to date to assess the views and preferences of older people for consumer-directed care or to assess the costs and benefits of such an approach relative to existing models of service delivery. A comprehensive health economic model will be developed and applied to the evolution, implementation and evaluation of consumer-directed care in an Australian community aged care setting. A mixed methods approach comprising qualitative interviews and a discrete choice experiment will determine the attitudes and preferences of older people and their informal carers for consumer-directed care. The results of the qualitative interviews and the discrete choice experiment will inform the introduction of a new consumer-directed care innovation in service delivery. The cost-effectiveness of consumer-directed care will be evaluated by comparing incremental changes in resource use, costs and health and quality of life outcomes relative to traditional services. The discrete choice experiment will be repeated at the end of the implementation period to determine the extent to which attitudes and preferences change as a consequence of experience of consumer-directed care. The proposed framework will have wide applicability in the future development and economic evaluation of new innovations across the health and aged care sectors. The study is approved by Flinders University Social and Behavioural Research Ethics Committee (Project No. 6114/SBREC). Findings from the qualitative interviews, discrete choice experiments and the economic evaluation will be reported at a workshop of stakeholders to be held in 2015 and will be documented in reports and in peer reviewed journal articles. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to

  16. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  17. Forecast model for the evaluation of economic resources employed in the health care of patients with HIV infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sacchi P

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Paolo Sacchi1, Savino FA Patruno1, Raffaele Bruno1, Serena Maria Benedetta Cima1, Pietro Previtali2, Alessia Franchini2, Luca Nicolini3, Carla Rognoni4, Lucia Sacchi5, Riccardo Bellazzi4, Gaetano Filice11Divisione di Malattie Infettive e Tropicali - Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy; 2Università degli Studi di Pavia – Facoltà di Economia, Pavia, Italy; 3Controllo di Gestione Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo di Pavia, Pavia, Italy; 4Dipartimento di Informatica e Sistemistica, Universita' degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy; 5Department of Information Systems and Computing, Brunel University, London, UKBackground and aims: The total health care cost for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV patients has constantly grown in recent years. To date, there is no information about how this trend will behave over the next few years. The aim of the present study is to define a pharmacoeconomic model for the forecast of the costs of a group of chronically treated patients followed over the period 2004–2009.Methods: A pharmacoeconomics model was built to describe the probability of transition among different health states and to modify the therapy over time. A Markov model was applied to evaluate the temporal evolution of the average cost. The health care resources exploited during hospitalization were analyzed by using an “activity-based costing” method.Results: The Markov model showed that the mean total cost, after an initial increase, tended to remain stable. A total of 20 clinical records were examined. The average daily cost for each patient was EUR 484.42, with a cost for admission of EUR 6781.88.Conclusion: The treatment of HIV infection in compliance with the guidelines is also effective from the payer perspective, as it allows a good health condition to be maintained and reduces the need and the costs of hospitalizations.Keywords: health care cost, HIV, Markov model, activity-based costing

  18. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, K. H.; Kim, J. H.; Boo, K. D.; Park, S. B.

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of

  19. Health economic modeling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes, and related macrosomia - a pilot evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; van der Beek, Eline M; Garssen, Johan; Nuijten, Mark J C; Uauy, Ricardo D

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and

  20. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers......, including all relevant factors in specific analyses is impossible, and it is therefore important to be aware of the most essential ones. As demonstrated in the literature review of Paper 1, a large number of factors may significantly influence fishermen’s short run behaviour, i.e. choice of gear type...

  1. An economic evaluation of salt reduction policies to reduce coronary heart disease in England: a policy modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Marissa; Mason, Helen; O'Flaherty, Martin; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon

    2014-07-01

    Dietary salt intake has been causally linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular disease causes approximately 35% of total UK deaths, at an estimated annual cost of £30 billion. The World Health Organization and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence have recommended a reduction in the intake of salt in people's diets. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of four population health policies to reduce dietary salt intake on an English population to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD). The validated IMPACT CHD model was used to quantify and compare four policies: 1) Change4Life health promotion campaign, 2) front-of-pack traffic light labeling to display salt content, 3) Food Standards Agency working with the food industry to reduce salt (voluntary), and 4) mandatory reformulation to reduce salt in processed foods. The effectiveness of these policies in reducing salt intake, and hence blood pressure, was determined by systematic literature review. The model calculated the reduction in mortality associated with each policy, quantified as life-years gained over 10 years. Policy costs were calculated using evidence from published sources. Health care costs for specific CHD patient groups were estimated. Costs were compared against a "do nothing" baseline. All policies resulted in a life-year gain over the baseline. Change4life and labeling each gained approximately 1960 life-years, voluntary reformulation 14,560 life-years, and mandatory reformulation 19,320 life-years. Each policy appeared cost saving, with mandatory reformulation offering the largest cost saving, more than £660 million. All policies to reduce dietary salt intake could gain life-years and reduce health care expenditure on coronary heart disease. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Economic evaluation of lupus nephritis in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort using a multistate model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Megan R W; Hanly, John G; Su, Li; Urowitz, Murray B; Pierre, Yvan St; Romero-Diaz, Juanita; Gordon, Caroline; Bae, Sang-Cheol; Bernatsky, Sasha; Wallace, Daniel J; Isenberg, David A; Rahman, Anisur; Ginzler, Ellen M; Petri, Michelle; Bruce, Ian N; Fortin, Paul R; Gladman, Dafna D; Sanchez-Guerrero, Jorge; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Khamashta, Munther A; Aranow, Cynthia; Mackay, Meggan; Alarcón, Graciela S; Manzi, Susan; Nived, Ola; Jönsen, Andreas; Zoma, Asad A; van Vollenhoven, Ronald F; Ramos-Casals, Manuel; Ruiz-Irastorza, Guillermo; Sam Lim, S; Kalunian, Kenneth C; Inanc, Murat; Kamen, Diane L; Peschken, Christine A; Jacobsen, Soren; Askanase, Anca; Theriault, Chris; Farewell, Vernon; Clarke, Ann E

    2017-11-28

    Little is known about the long-term costs of lupus nephritis (LN). These were compared between patients with and without LN based on multistate modelling. Patients from 32 centres in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis and provided annual data on renal function, hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures. LN was diagnosed by renal biopsy or the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. Renal function was assessed annually using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or proteinuria (ePrU). A multistate model was used to predict 10-year cumulative costs by multiplying annual costs associated with each renal state by the expected state duration. 1,545 patients participated, 89.3% female, mean age at diagnosis 35.2 years (SD 13.4), 49.0% Caucasian, and mean follow up 6.3 years (SD 3.3). LN developed in 39.4% by the end of follow up. Ten-year cumulative costs were greater in those with LN and an eGFR 60 ml/min) or with LN and ePrU > 3 g/d ($84 040 versus $20 499 if no LN and ePrU < 0.25 g/d). Patients with eGFR < 30 ml/min incurred 10-year costs 15-fold higher than those with normal eGFR. By estimating the expected duration in each renal state and incorporating associated annual costs, disease severity at presentation can be used to anticipate future healthcare costs. This is critical knowledge for cost-effectiveness evaluations of novel therapies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  4. Economic evaluation of vaccines in Canada: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chit, Ayman; Lee, Jason K H; Shim, Minsup; Nguyen, Van Hai; Grootendorst, Paul; Wu, Jianhong; Van Exan, Robert; Langley, Joanne M

    2016-05-03

    Economic evaluations should form part of the basis for public health decision making on new vaccine programs. While Canada's national immunization advisory committee does not systematically include economic evaluations in immunization decision making, there is increasing interest in adopting them. We therefore sought to examine the extent and quality of economic evaluations of vaccines in Canada. We conducted a systematic review of economic evaluations of vaccines in Canada to determine and summarize: comprehensiveness across jurisdictions, studied vaccines, funding sources, study designs, research quality, and changes over time. Searches in multiple databases were conducted using the terms "vaccine," "economics" and "Canada." Descriptive data from eligible manuscripts was abstracted and three authors independently evaluated manuscript quality using a 7-point Likert-type scale scoring tool based on criteria from the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). 42/175 articles met the search criteria. Of these, Canada-wide studies were most common (25/42), while provincial studies largely focused on the three populous provinces of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. The most common funding source was industry (17/42), followed by government (7/42). 38 studies used mathematical models estimating expected economic benefit while 4 studies examined post-hoc data on established programs. Studies covered 10 diseases, with 28/42 addressing pediatric vaccines. Many studies considered cost-utility (22/42) and the majority of these studies reported favorable economic results (16/22). The mean quality score was 5.9/7 and was consistent over publication date, funding sources, and disease areas. We observed diverse approaches to evaluate vaccine economics in Canada. Given the increased complexity of economic studies evaluating vaccines and the impact of results on public health practice, Canada needs improved, transparent and consistent processes

  5. A model for economic evaluation of the use of Adsorbed Natural Gas (ANG); Modelo de avaliacao economica do uso do Gas Natural Adsorvido (GNA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Azevedo, Diana C.S.; Cavalcante Junior, Celio L.; Torres, A. Eurico B.; Oliveira Junior, Jose A.; Medeiros, Vanildo M. de [Universidade Federal do Ceara (UFC), Fortaleza, CE (Brazil); Campos, Flavio B.; Moura, Newton R. de [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES). Gerencia de Gas e Energia; Campos, Michel F. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Tecnologia de Gas e Energia; Alexandre, Francisco de Assis Souza

    2004-07-01

    Natural gas is currently transported by two main ways: through pipelines and stored in reservoirs, under compressed (CNG) or liquefied (LNG) forms. Adsorbed natural gas (ANG) is a third alternative to vessel storage, which has been intensively reported in the scientific and technical literature. Working pressures are considerably lower for ANG (3,5 MPa as compared to 25 MPa for CNG), which results in lower costs with vessel construction and compression and safer handling. The project ADSPOR, sponsored by PETROBRAS and part of the R and D portfolio of RedeGasEnergia, aims to assess the technical and economical feasibility of storing and transporting natural gas confined in carbon adsorbents. The objectives of this project are the production of high-capacity active carbons, the collection of adsorption data for NG storage and the economic evaluation of ANG. The present work presents a model for cost estimation of the ANG business, which comprises from the compression into ANG vessels until the distribution to the final costumer, taking into account several shipping modes. The variables involved in the model were: compression costs, equipment and materials technical data, costs with product handling and shipping costs for motor ways, railways and inland waterways. These variables were linked so as to generate a cost matrix that may be used to assess investment and calculate the final cost for GNA transport. The model may be used to carry out parameter sensitivity analysis, for decision-making and management purposes. (author)

  6. The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Andrew J.

    2018-01-01

    The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

  7. Economic modeling of new stent platforms to evaluate cost effectiveness: analysis of the TAXUS Liberté versus TAXUS express stents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, Mark A; Kansal, Anuraag R; Stern, Sean; Amorosi, Stacey L; Underwood, Paul L; Lissovoy, Greg D E; Dawkins, Keith D

    2012-08-01

    With the changing health care environment, cost effectiveness is an important adjunct to clinical investigation when assessing new medical devices. This study presents an economic model to evaluate cost effectiveness of coronary stents. Markov modeling was developed comparing total costs (Medicare payer perspective) between TAXUS Liberté and TAXUS Express based on 3-year clinical outcomes from the TAXUS ATLAS Small Vessel and Long Lesion trials. The TAXUS Liberté 2.25-mm stent provided cost savings relative to TAXUS Express from a payer perspective ($17,605 vs. $20,281), driven by reduced target vessel revascularization (0.16 events/patient vs. 0.33 events/patient). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, TAXUS Liberté was less costly with fewer major adverse cardiac events in over 99% of parameter sets. The TAXUS Liberté Long (38 mm) stent was cost neutral relative to TAXUS Express from a payer perspective ($18,545 vs. $18,551) with fewer myocardial infarctions and cardiac deaths. Accounting for angiography-driven revascularizations, TAXUS Liberté 2.25 mm still provided cost savings relative to TAXUS Express ($16,822 vs. $19,139), although TAXUS Liberté Long was more expensive than TAXUS Express ($17,886 vs. $17,652). From a hospital perspective, TAXUS Liberté Long provided cost savings up to a price premium of $671/stent, driven by fewer stents employed per patient. This analysis confirms the utility of economic modeling in assessing new stent platforms. TAXUS Liberté 2.25 mm is economically dominant relative to TAXUS Express when treating small vessels. TAXUS Liberté Long is cost neutral to modestly more costly than TAXUS Express 2.25 mm from a payer perspective. ©2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ariel Esteban Bardach

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cervical cancer (CC and genital warts (GW are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. Methods A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Conclusions Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP per capita (104,404 VEF per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of

  9. Utilities' nuclear fuel economic evaluation methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonz, L.A.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents the typical perceptions, methods, considerations, and procedures used by an operating electric utility in the economic evaluation of nuclear fuel preparation and utilization scenarios. The means given are probably not an exclusive review of those available, but are the author's recollection of systems employed to select and recommend preferable courses of action. Economic evaluation of proposed nuclear fuel scenarios is an important, but not exclusive, means of deciding on corporate action. If the economic evaluation is performed and coordinated with the other corporate considerations, such as technical and operational ability, electrical system operations management, tax effects, capital management, rates impact, etc., then the resultant recommendation may be employed to the benefit of the customers and, consequently, to the corporation

  10. High titer L-lactic acid production from corn stover with minimum wastewater generation and techno-economic evaluation based on Aspen plus modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Gang; Sun, Jiaoe; Zhang, Jian; Tu, Yi; Bao, Jie

    2015-12-01

    Technological potentials of l-lactic acid production from corn stover feedstock were investigated by experimental and techno-economic studies. An optimal performance with 104.5 g/L in l-lactic acid titer and 71.5% in overall yield from cellulose in corn stover to l-lactic acid using an engineered Pediococcus acidilactici strain were obtained by overcoming several technical barriers. A rigorous Aspen plus model for l-lactic acid production starting from dry dilute acid pretreated and biodetoxified corn stover was developed. The techno-economic analysis shows that the minimum l-lactic acid selling price (MLSP) was $0.523 per kg, which was close to that of the commercial l-lactic acid produced from starch feedstock, and 24% less expensive than that of ethanol from corn stover, even though the xylose utilization was not considered. The study provided a prototype of industrial application and an evaluation model for high titer l-lactic acid production from lignocellulose feedstock. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  12. Solar energy system economic evaluation for Seeco Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Lincoln, Nebraska is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. This analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed system and local conditions. The results are expressed in terms of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

  13. Solar energy system economic evaluation: IBM System 4, Clinton, Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    An economic analysis of the solar energy system was developed for five sites, typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions in the continental United States. The analysis was based on the technical and economic models in the F-chart design procedure, with inputs based on the characteristic of the installed system and local conditions. The results are of the economic parameters of present worth of system cost over a 20 year time span: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated.

  14. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

  15. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  16. Understanding the essentials of economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, G P

    1995-01-01

    Economic evaluation (EE) answers the following simple question: "From which course of action do we get the most value for our money?" We ask this question because resources are always limited, i.e., we never have enough money to do all the things we would like to do. Three types of economic evaluations are used: cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis, and cost-benefit analysis. Although all involve a monetary and outcome comparison of two or more courses of action, the methodologies and outcomes of each type vary, making each one particularly suited for specific and different indications. Although the performance of an EE may be complex, its concept is intuitively simple. Understanding the basic elements of economic analysis is more and more important to all health-care providers because health-care policy makers at all levels are increasingly using EE for allocating resources.

  17. ECOGEN - Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogh, P. H

    2007-01-01

    ECOGEN is a project funded by the EU under the 6th Framework Programme. Based on results obtained from soil biodiversity studies and economic evaluations, ECOGEN assessed the impact on soil organisms of different agricultural management practices, including those involving genetically modified (GM...... Policy were then evaluated. These two major factors - ecological and economic - were then integrated into decision support models for predicting the overall consequences of introducing GM crops into an agricultural system. Bt-maize line MON 810, resistant to a widespread insect pest called the European...... and economic results were integrated into a decision support model to facilitate the assessment of the impact of various cropping systems on soil quality and economics. In conclusion, the ECOGEN results indicate no difference of biological relevance in the impact on soil organisms between Bt-maize line MON 810...

  18. Engineering economic evaluations of trash segregation alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, H.E.

    1987-01-01

    Health physicists are becoming increasingly involved in the selection of equipment to segregate a contaminated trash from clean trash in the effort to reduce low level waste disposal costs. Although well qualified to evaluate the technical merits of different equipment, health physicists also need to be aware of the elements of economic comparisons of different alternatives that meet all technical requirements

  19. Socio-economic project evaluation in practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, A.

    1995-01-01

    The theoretical basis for a socio-economic project evaluation can be doubtful and specific analyses can involve quite essential uncertainty. Among serious theoretical problems of the energy sector there should be named the price distortions, due to various taxes. The choice of the presumed calculation interest can be difficult, due to the extremely long-range energy-political planning. (EG) 10 refs

  20. Economic evaluation of reprocessing - Indicative Belgian position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    This paper, which also appears as an Appendix to the final Working Group 4 report, forms part of the overall economic evaluation of reprocessing. The indicative national position and illustrative ''phase diagram'' for Belgium is presented. Other factors which influence the Belgian viewpoint and which are not included on the phase diagram are given

  1. Economic evaluations of homeopathy: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viksveen, Petter; Dymitr, Zofia; Simoens, Steven

    2014-03-01

    Economic evaluations of commonly used complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) therapies such as homeopathy are needed to contribute to the evidence base on which policy makers, clinicians, health-care payers, as well as patients base their health-care decisions in an era of constrained resources. To review and assess existing economic evaluations of homeopathy. Literature search was made to retrieve relevant publications using AMED, the Cochrane Library, CRD (DARE, NHS EED, HTA), EMBASE, MEDLINE, and the journal Homeopathy (former British Homoeopathic Journal). A hand search of relevant publications was carried out. Homeopathy researchers were contacted. Identified publications were independently assessed by two authors. Fifteen relevant articles reported on 14 economic evaluations of homeopathy. Thirteen studies reported numbers of patients: a total of 3,500 patients received homeopathic treatment (median 97, interquartile range 48-268), and 10 studies reported on control group participants (median 57, IQR 40-362). Eight out of 14 studies found improvements in patients' health together with cost savings. Four studies found that improvements in homeopathy patients were at least as good as in control group patients, at comparable costs. Two studies found improvements similar to conventional treatment, but at higher costs. Studies were highly heterogeneous and had several methodological weaknesses. Although the identified evidence of the costs and potential benefits of homeopathy seemed promising, studies were highly heterogeneous and had several methodological weaknesses. It is therefore not possible to draw firm conclusions based on existing economic evaluations of homeopathy. Recommendations for future research are presented.

  2. Common methodological flaws in economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Michael; Sculpher, Mark

    2005-07-01

    Economic evaluations are increasingly being used by those bodies such as government agencies and managed care groups that make decisions about the reimbursement of health technologies. However, several reviews of economic evaluations point to numerous deficiencies in the methodology of studies or the failure to follow published methodological guidelines. This article, written for healthcare decision-makers and other users of economic evaluations, outlines the common methodological flaws in studies, focussing on those issues that are likely to be most important when deciding on the reimbursement, or guidance for use, of health technologies. The main flaws discussed are: (i) omission of important costs or benefits; (ii) inappropriate selection of alternatives for comparison; (iii) problems in making indirect comparisons; (iv) inadequate representation of the effectiveness data; (v) inappropriate extrapolation beyond the period observed in clinical studies; (vi) excessive use of assumptions rather than data; (vii) inadequate characterization of uncertainty; (viii) problems in aggregation of results; (ix) reporting of average cost-effectiveness ratios; (x) lack of consideration of generalizability issues; and (xi) selective reporting of findings. In each case examples are given from the literature and guidance is offered on how to detect flaws in economic evaluations.

  3. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

    1985-12-01

    This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  4. Long-term consequences of non-intentional flows of substances: Modelling non-intentional flows of lead in the Dutch economic system and evaluating their environmental consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Voet, Ester van der; Holderbeke, Mirja van; Timmermans, Veerle

    2009-01-01

    Substances may enter the economy and the environment through both intentional and non-intentional flows. These non-intentional flows, including the occurrence of substances as pollutants in mixed primary resources (metal ores, phosphate ores and fossil fuels) and their presence in re-used waste streams from intentional use may have environmental and economic consequences in terms of pollution and resource availability. On the one hand, these non-intentional flows may cause pollution problems. On the other hand, these flows have the potential to be a secondary source of substances. This article aims to quantify and model the non-intentional flows of lead, to evaluate their long-term environmental consequences, and compare these consequences to those of the intentional flows of lead. To meet this goal, the model combines all the sources of non-intentional flows of lead within one model, which also includes the intentional flows. Application of the model shows that the non-intentional flows of lead related to waste streams associated with intentional use are decreasing over time, due to the increased attention given to waste management. However, as contaminants in mixed primary resources application, lead flows are increasing as demand for these applications is increasing.

  5. Economic evaluation of lupus nephritis in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort using a multistate model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barber, Megan R W; Hanly, John G; Su, Li

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the long-term costs of lupus nephritis (LN). These were compared between patients with and without LN based on multistate modelling. METHODS: Patients from 32 centres in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC...

  6. Economic value evaluation in disease management programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnezi, Racheli; Reicher, Sima; Shani, Mordechai

    2008-05-01

    Chronic disease management has been a rapidly growing entity in the 21st century as a strategy for managing chronic illnesses in large populations. However, experience has shown that disease management programs have not been able to demonstrate their financial value. The objectives of disease management programs are to create quality benchmarks, such as principles and guidelines, and to establish a uniform set of metrics and a standardized methodology for evaluating them. In order to illuminate the essence of disease management and its components, as well as the complexity and the problematic nature of performing economic calculations of their profitability and value, we collected data from several reports that dealt with the economic intervention of disease management programs. The disease management economic evaluation is composed of a series of steps, including the following major categories: data/information technology, information generation, assessment/recommendations, actionable customer plans, and program assessment/reassessment. We demonstrate the elements necessary for economic analysis. Disease management is one of the most innovative tools in the managed care environment and is still in the process of being defined. Therefore, objectives should include the creation of quality measures, such as principles and guidelines, and the establishment of a uniform set of metrics and a standardized methodology for evaluating them.

  7. Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

  8. Economics of residue harvest: Regional partnership evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic analyses on the viability of corn (Zea mays, L.) stover harvest for bioenergy production have largely been based on simulation modeling. While some studies have utilized field research data, most field-based analyses have included a limited number of sites and a narrow geographic distributi...

  9. Economic framework for information system evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, D.W.; Roderer, N.K.

    1979-01-01

    In the evaluation of complex information systems, it is useful to work within a generalized economic framework. This framework is based on consideration of four evaluation levels, including those associated with the overall system, system functions, products and services, and activities. Measures of cost and output can be defined at each level, with output measures related to volume of activity, performance, effectiveness, and benefit. The description of this framework includes definitions of the terminology used. Examples of the application of the framework to specific information system evaluations are also given. 4 figures

  10. The Need of a New Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Cătălin POPA

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

  11. Solar energy system economic evaluation for Solaron Akron, Akron, Ohio

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Akron, Ohio is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions. The analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results show that only in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where insolation is 1828 Btu/sq ft/day and the conventional energy cost is high, is this solar energy system marginally profitable.

  12. Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

  13. Evaluating economic costs and benefits of climate resilient livelihood strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A major challenge for international development is to assist the poorest regions to achieve development targets while taking climate change into account. Such ‘climate resilient development’ (CRD must identify and implement adaptation strategies for improving livelihoods while also being cost-effective. While the idea that climate resilience and development goals should be compatible is often discussed, empirical evaluations of the economic impacts of actual CRD investments are practically non-existent. This paper outlines a framework to evaluate economic returns to CRD and applies it in two adaptation strategies trialed in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, eastern Indonesia. The evaluation framework is composed of three models: a household benefit cost model, a diffusion model, and a regional benefit cost model. The models draw upon the impact evaluation, technology diffusion, and risk assessment literatures, respectively. The analyzes are based on expert opinion and locally-derived information, and hence can be applied in data-poor situations typical of developing countries. Our results explore economic costs and benefits at the household and regional scale, and we identify key input variables that greatly influence the economic returns of the strategies. These variables should therefore be a focus of ongoing investment. We also discuss how the framework is more generally applicable, its limitations including challenges in accounting for less tangible social and ecosystem service benefits, potentially leading to the underestimation of impacts, and how the approach should be complemented by qualitative methods.

  14. Economic evaluation in patient safety: a literature review of methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Rezende, Bruna Alves; Or, Zeynep; Com-Ruelle, Laure; Michel, Philippe

    2012-06-01

    Patient safety practices, targeting organisational changes for improving patient safety, are implemented worldwide but their costs are rarely evaluated. This paper provides a review of the methods used in economic evaluation of such practices. International medical and economics databases were searched for peer-reviewed publications on economic evaluations of patient safety between 2000 and 2010 in English and French. This was complemented by a manual search of the reference lists of relevant papers. Grey literature was excluded. Studies were described using a standardised template and assessed independently by two researchers according to six quality criteria. 33 articles were reviewed that were representative of different patient safety domains, data types and evaluation methods. 18 estimated the economic burden of adverse events, 3 measured the costs of patient safety practices and 12 provided complete economic evaluations. Healthcare-associated infections were the most common subject of evaluation, followed by medication-related errors and all types of adverse events. Of these, 10 were selected that had adequately fulfilled one or several key quality criteria for illustration. This review shows that full cost-benefit/utility evaluations are rarely completed as they are resource intensive and often require unavailable data; some overcome these difficulties by performing stochastic modelling and by using secondary sources. Low methodological transparency can be a problem for building evidence from available economic evaluations. Investing in the economic design and reporting of studies with more emphasis on defining study perspectives, data collection and methodological choices could be helpful for strengthening our knowledge base on practices for improving patient safety.

  15. Environmental Economics And Policy: Course Evaluation Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Šauer

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to outline the educational aspects of environmental economics referring to an example of a course taught at The University of Economics, Prague. A quantitative survey among students was conducted to describe their perceptions of the environmental topics and the diverse components of the course. This learners’ perspective is compared with students’ examination results and their level of activity in seminars. One of the main questions asked in this text is: do students interested in economic policy and regional economics consider the environmental orientation of the course important? And if yes what aspects of the course do they value, what benefits do they get from the course, what are their learning strategies and what role does this play with regards to students’ concern for environmental issues? Probably the most important finding of the research is the students’ advocacy of environmental economics as a beneficial part of curriculum both by those clustered as ‘environmentalists’ and ‘non-environmentalists’ (or even ‘anti-environmentalists’. Students appreciate having a chance to participate actively in the course. A well balanced proportion of lectures and seminars with enough space for deep discussion seem to be crucial for retaining students’ interest. The data doesn’t equip us with sufficient information to construct regression models with reasonable predictive power concerning exam results. A challenge for further research is to work with a better informed analysis of students’ learning strategies.

  16. The Development Evaluation of Economic Zones in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Bo; Zhang, Zhe; Zhai, Yuming; Chen, Quan; Wang, Jiangtao

    2018-01-01

    After the Chinese reform and opening up, the construction of economic zones, such as Special Economic Zones, Hi-tech Zones and Bonded Zones, has played an irreplaceable role in China’s economic development. Currently, against the background of Chinese economic transition, research on development evaluation of economic zones has become popular and necessary. Similar research usually focuses on one specific field, and the methods that are used to evaluate it are simple. This research aims to analyse the development evaluation of zones by synthesis. A new hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) model that combines the DEMATEL technique and the DANP method is proposed. After establishing the evaluation criterion system and acquiring data, the influential weights of dimensions and criteria can be calculated, which will be a guide for forming measures of development. Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone is used in the empirical case analysis. The results show that Transportation Conditions, Industrial Structure and Business Climate are the main influencing criteria and measures based on these criteria are proposed. PMID:29301304

  17. Economic evaluation of nuclear plant project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tolba, Adel.

    1988-01-01

    The present work is an attempt to prepare a ''fair price'' estimate to serve as bench mark in the course of economic evaluation of bids to construct nuclear power plants. The methodology of determining the present value of all capital investment is used. Running costs of nuclear fuel, operation, and maintenance are also determined. As a result, levelized energy cost is calculated. Sensitivity analysis for different parameters has been conducted, and the results of which are included in this paper

  18. Economic evaluation of reprocessing. Indicative Netherlands position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    The paper, which also appears as an Appendix to the final Working Group 4 report, forms part of the overall economic evaluation of reprocessing. The indicative national position and illustrative ''phase diagram'' for the Netherlands is presented. Two alternative scenarios have been assumed for the variation of uranium price in the future; a 2% per annum price rise and a 5% per annum price rise

  19. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  20. Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

    1989-01-01

    The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

  1. Network models in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

    2014-01-01

    Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

  2. Economic evaluation of information technology applications on dairy farms

    OpenAIRE

    Asseldonk, van, M.A.P.M.

    1999-01-01

    The research described in this thesis focused on the economic evaluation of information technology (IT) applications on dairy farms in order to support investment decisions. The evaluation included a normative (deductive) approach and an empirical (positive) approach. The normative approach predicted potential benefits from a theoretical model of the investment, and investigated how farmers should deal with the applications. The empirical approach observed the actual effects of the i...

  3. Economic filters for evaluating porphyry copper deposit resource assessments using grade-tonnage deposit models, with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey global mineral resource assessment: Chapter H in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Gilpin R.; Menzie, W. David

    2012-01-01

    An analysis of the amount and location of undiscovered mineral resources that are likely to be economically recoverable is important for assessing the long-term adequacy and availability of mineral supplies. This requires an economic evaluation of estimates of undiscovered resources generated by traditional resource assessments (Singer and Menzie, 2010). In this study, simplified engineering cost models were used to estimate the economic fraction of resources contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits, predicted in a global assessment of copper resources. The cost models of Camm (1991) were updated with a cost index to reflect increases in mining and milling costs since 1989. The updated cost models were used to perform an economic analysis of undiscovered resources estimated in porphyry copper deposits in six tracts located in North America. The assessment estimated undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the land surface in three depth intervals.

  4. The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

    2007-01-01

    The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

  5. Evaluation models and evaluation use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contandriopoulos, Damien; Brousselle, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    The use of evaluation results is at the core of evaluation theory and practice. Major debates in the field have emphasized the importance of both the evaluator’s role and the evaluation process itself in fostering evaluation use. A recent systematic review of interventions aimed at influencing policy-making or organizational behavior through knowledge exchange offers a new perspective on evaluation use. We propose here a framework for better understanding the embedded relations between evaluation context, choice of an evaluation model and use of results. The article argues that the evaluation context presents conditions that affect both the appropriateness of the evaluation model implemented and the use of results. PMID:23526460

  6. Health economic evaluations in orthodontics: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollenius, Ola; Petrén, Sofia; Björnsson, Liselotte; Norlund, Anders; Bondemark, Lars

    2016-06-01

    Economic evaluation is assuming increasing importance as an integral component of health services research. To conduct a systematic review of the literature and assess the evidence from studies presenting orthodontic treatment outcomes and the related costs. The literature review was conducted in four steps, according to Goodman's model, in order to identify all studies evaluating economic aspects of orthodontic interventions. The search covered the databases Medline, Cinahl, Cochrane, Embase, Google Scholar, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database, and SCOPUS, for the period from 1966 to September 2014. The inclusion criteria were as follows: randomized controlled trials or controlled clinical trials comparing at least two different orthodontic interventions, evaluation of both economic and orthodontic outcomes, and study populations of all ages. The quality of each included study was assessed as limited, moderate, or high. The overall evidence was assessed according to the GRADE system (The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation). The applied terms for searches yielded 1838 studies, of which 989 were excluded as duplicates. Application of the inclusion and exclusion criteria identified 26 eligible studies for which the full-text versions were retrieved and scrutinized. At the final analysis, eight studies remained. Three studies were based on cost-effectiveness analyses and the other five on cost-minimization analysis. Two of the cost-minimization studies included a societal perspective, i.e. the sum of direct and indirect costs. The aims of most of the studies varied widely and of studies comparing equivalent treatment methods, few were of sufficiently high study quality. Thus, the literature to date provides an inadequate evidence base for economic aspects of orthodontic treatment. This systematic review disclosed that few orthodontic studies have presented both economic and clinical outcomes. There is currently

  7. Cost-Effectiveness of a Chronic Care Model for Frail Older Adults in Primary Care: Economic Evaluation Alongside a Stepped-Wedge Cluster-Randomized Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, Karen M; Bosmans, Judith E; Jansen, Aaltje P D; Hoogendijk, Emiel O; Muntinga, Maaike E; van Hout, Hein P J; Nijpels, Giel; van der Horst, Henriette E; van Tulder, Maurits W

    2015-12-01

    To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the Geriatric Care Model (GCM), an integrated care model for frail older adults based on the Chronic Care Model, with that of usual care. Economic evaluation alongside a 24-month stepped-wedge cluster-randomized controlled trial. Primary care (35 practices) in two regions in the Netherlands. Community-dwelling older adults who were frail according to their primary care physicians and the Program on Research for Integrating Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy case-finding tool questionnaire (N = 1,147). The GCM consisted of the following components: a regularly scheduled in-home comprehensive geriatric assessment by a practice nurse followed by a customized care plan, management and training of practice nurses by a geriatric expert team, and coordination of care through community network meetings and multidisciplinary team consultations of individuals with complex care needs. Outcomes were measured every 6 months and included costs from a societal perspective, health-related quality of life (Medical Outcomes Study 12-item Short-Form Survey (SF-12) physical (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scales), functional limitations (Katz activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living), and quality-adjusted life years based on the EQ-5D. Multilevel regression models adjusted for time and baseline confounders showed no significant differences in costs ($356, 95% confidence interval = -$488-1,134) and outcomes between intervention and usual care phases. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that, for the SF-12 PCS and MCS, the probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 0.76 if decision-makers are willing to pay $30,000 per point improvement on the SF-12 scales (range 0-100). For all other outcomes the probability of the intervention being cost-effective was low. Because the GCM was not cost-effective compared to usual care after 24 months of follow-up, widespread implementation

  8. Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in the UK: a modelling study and health economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambiano, Valentina; Miners, Alec; Dunn, David; McCormack, Sheena; Ong, Koh Jun; Gill, O Noel; Nardone, Anthony; Desai, Monica; Field, Nigel; Hart, Graham; Delpech, Valerie; Cairns, Gus; Rodger, Alison; Phillips, Andrew N

    2018-01-01

    In the UK, HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) has remained high for several years, despite widespread use of antiretroviral therapy and high rates of virological suppression. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be highly effective in preventing further infections in MSM, but its cost-effectiveness is uncertain. In this modelling study and economic evaluation, we calibrated a dynamic, individual-based stochastic model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple data sources (surveillance data provided by Public Health England and data from a large, nationally representative survey, Natsal-3) on HIV among MSM in the UK. We did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (sampling 22 key parameters) along with a range of univariate sensitivity analyses to evaluate the introduction of a PrEP programme with sexual event-based use of emtricitabine and tenofovir for MSM who had condomless anal sexual intercourse in the previous 3 months, a negative HIV test at baseline, and a negative HIV test in the preceding year. The main model outcomes were the number of HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs. Introduction of such a PrEP programme, with around 4000 MSM initiated on PrEP by the end of the first year and almost 40 000 by the end of the 15th year, would result in a total cost saving (£1·0 billion discounted), avert 25% of HIV infections (42% of which would be directly because of PrEP), and lead to a gain of 40 000 discounted QALYs over an 80-year time horizon. This result was particularly sensitive to the time horizon chosen, the cost of antiretroviral drugs (for treatment and PrEP), and the underlying trend in condomless sex. This analysis suggests that the introduction of a PrEP programme for MSM in the UK is cost-effective and possibly cost-saving in the long term. A reduction in the cost of antiretroviral drugs (including the drugs used for PrEP) would substantially shorten the time for cost savings to be realised

  9. Economic evaluation of reprocessing - Indicative Canadian position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    This paper, which also appears as an Appendix to the final Working Group 4 report, forms part of the overall economic evaluation of reprocessing. The indicative national position and illustrative ''phase diagram'' for Canada is presented. Three fuel cycles are considered. (1) CANDU operating on the natural uranium, once-through fuel cycle. (2) CANDU operating with low enrichment (1.2%) once-through fuel cycle. (3) CANDU operating with recycle of plutonium and depleted uranium which has been extracted from spent CANDU natural uranium fuel. The diagrams show that reprocessing and recycle of fuel can be used to reduce further the sensitivity of CANDU fuelling costs to increasing uranium ore price

  10. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  11. Can Economic Model Transparency Improve Provider Interpretation of Cost-effectiveness Analysis? Evaluating Tradeoffs Presented by the Second Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, William V; McQueen, Robert Brett; Pronovost, Peter J

    2017-11-01

    The Second Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine convened on December 7, 2016 at the National Academy of Medicine to disseminate their recommendations for conduct, methodological practices, and reporting of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs). Following its summary, panel proceedings included lengthy discussions including the field's struggle to disseminate findings efficiently through peer-reviewed literature to target audiences. With editors of several medical and outcomes research journals in attendance, there was consensus that findings of cost-effectiveness analyses do not effectively reach other researchers or health care providers. The audience members suggested several solutions including providing additional training to clinicians in cost-effectiveness research and requiring that cost-effectiveness models are made publicly available. However, there remains the questions of whether making economic modelers' work open-access through journals is fair under the defense that these models remain one's own intellectual property, or whether journals can properly manage the peer-review process specifically for cost-effectiveness analyses. In this article, we elaborate on these issues and provide some suggested solutions that may increase the dissemination and application of cost-effectiveness literature to reach its intended audiences and ultimately benefit the patient. Ultimately, it is our combined view as economic modelers and clinicians that cost-effectiveness results need to reach the clinician to improve the efficiency of medical practice, but that open-access models do not improve clinician access or interpretation of the economics of medicine.

  12. Operational Contract Support: Economic Impact Evaluation and Measures of Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA MBA PROFESSIONAL REPORT OPERATIONAL CONTRACT SUPPORT: ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION AND MEASURES...DATES COVERED MBA professional report 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE OPERATIONAL CONTRACT SUPPORT: ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION AND MEASURES OF EFFECTIVENESS 5...evaluation, expeditionary economics , operational contract support, measure of effectiveness 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 89 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY

  13. A modelled economic evaluation comparing atomoxetine with methylphenidate in the treatment of children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilla Tatiana

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD is a neurobehavioural disorder, affecting 3–6% of school age children and adolescents in Spain. Methylphenidate (MPH, a mild stimulant, had long been the only approved medication available for ADHD children in Spain. Atomoxetine is a non-stimulant alternative in the treatment of ADHD with once-a-day oral dosing. This study aims to estimate the cost-effectiveness of atomoxetine compared to MPH. In addition, atomoxetine is compared to 'no medication' for patient populations who are ineligible for MPH (i.e. having stimulant-failure experience or co-morbidities precluding stimulant medication. Methods An economic model with Markov processes was developed to estimate the costs and benefits of atomoxetine versus either MPH or 'no medication'. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY was calculated for atomoxetine relative to the comparators. The Markov process incorporated 14 health states, representing a range of outcomes associated with treatment options. Utility values were obtained from the utility valuation survey of 83 parents of children with ADHD. The clinical data were based on a thorough review of controlled clinical trials and other clinical literature, and validated by international experts. Costs and outcomes were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation over a 1-year duration, with costs estimated from the perspective of the National Health Service in Spain. Results For stimulant-naïve patients without contra-indications to stimulants, the incremental costs per QALY gained for atomoxetine were € 34 308 (compared to an immediate-release MPH and € 24 310 (compared to an extended-release MPH. For those patients who have stimulant-failure experience or contra-indications to stimulants, the incremental costs per QALY gained of atomoxetine compared to 'no medication' were € 23 820 and € 23 323, respectively. Conclusion The economic evaluation showed

  14. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  15. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  16. Economic evaluation of type 2 diabetes prevention programmes: Markov model of low- and high-intensity lifestyle programmes and metformin in participants with different categories of intermediate hyperglycaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Samantha; Craig, Dawn; Adler, Amanda; McPherson, Klim; Greenhalgh, Trisha

    2018-01-30

    National guidance on preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the UK recommends low-intensity lifestyle interventions for individuals with intermediate categories of hyperglycaemia defined in terms of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) or 'at-risk' levels of HbA1c. In a recent systematic review of economic evaluations of such interventions, most studies had evaluated intensive trial-based lifestyle programmes in participants with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). This study examines the costs and effects of different intensity lifestyle programmes and metformin in participants with different categories of intermediate hyperglycaemia. We developed a decision tree and Markov model (50-year horizon) to compare four approaches, namely (1) a low-intensity lifestyle programme based on current NICE guidance, (2) a high-intensity lifestyle programme based on the US Diabetes Prevention Program, (3) metformin, and (4) no intervention, modelled for three different types of intermediate hyperglycaemia (IFG, IGT and HbA1c). A health system perspective was adopted and incremental analysis undertaken at an individual and population-wide level, taking England as a case study. Low-intensity lifestyle programmes were the most cost-effective (£44/QALY, £195/QALY and £186/QALY compared to no intervention in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively). Intensive lifestyle interventions were also cost-effective compared to no intervention (£2775/QALY, £6820/QALY and £7376/QALY, respectively, in IGT, IFG and HbA1c). Metformin was cost-effective relative to no intervention (£5224/QALY, £6842/QALY and £372/QALY in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively), but was only cost-effective relative to other treatments in participants identified with HbA1c. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY, low- and high-intensity lifestyle programmes were cost-effective 98%, 99% and 98% and 81%, 81% and 71% of the time in IGT, IFG and HbA1c, respectively. An England-wide programme for 50-59 year olds

  17. Payment and economic evaluation of integrated care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Apostolos Tsiachristas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic diseases have an increasingly negative impact on (1 population health by increasing morbidity and mortality, (2 society by increasing health inequalities and burden to informal caregivers, and (3 economy by requiring enormous financial resources and jeopardising macro-economic development (e.g. consumption, capital accumulation, labour productivity and labour supply. Integrated care is the most promising concept in redesigning care to tackle the increasing threat of chronic diseases. Several European countries have experimented with models for integrating care, most frequently in the form of disease management programmes. These models were often supported by payment schemes to provide financial incentives to health care providers for implementing integrated care. This thesis aimed to investigate these payment schemes and assess their impact, explore the variability in costs of disease management programmes, and determine the costs and effects of disease management programmes.

  18. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF CO2 SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bert R. Bock; Richard G. Rhudy; David E. Nichols

    2001-07-01

    In order to plan for potential CO{sub 2} mitigation mandates, utilities need better information on CO{sub 2} mitigation options, especially carbon sequestration options that involve non-utility operations. One of the major difficulties in evaluating CO{sub 2} sequestration technologies and practices, both geologic storage of captured CO{sub 2} and storage in biological sinks, is obtaining consistent, transparent, accurate, and comparable economics. This project is comparing the economics of major technologies and practices under development for CO{sub 2} sequestration, including captured CO{sub 2} storage options such as active oil reservoirs, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, deep aquifers, coal beds, and oceans, as well as the enhancement of biological sinks such as forests and croplands. An international group of experts has been assembled to compare on a consistent basis the economics of this diverse array of CO{sub 2} sequestration options. Designs and data collection are nearly complete for each of the CO{sub 2} sequestration options being compared. Initial spreadsheet development has begun on concepts involving storage of captured CO{sub 2}. No significant problems have been encountered, but some additional outside expertise will be accessed to supplement the team's expertise in the areas of life cycle analysis, oil and gas exploration and production, and comparing CO{sub 2} sequestration options that differ in timing and permanence of CO{sub 2} sequestration. Plans for the next reporting period are to complete data collection and a first approximation of the spreadsheet. We expect to complete this project on time and on budget.

  19. Economic evaluation in stratified medicine: methodological issues and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans-Joerg eFugel

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Stratified Medicine (SM is becoming a practical reality with the targeting of medicines by using a biomarker or genetic-based diagnostic to identify the eligible patient sub-population. Like any healthcare intervention, SM interventions have costs and consequences that must be considered by reimbursement authorities with limited resources. Methodological standards and guidelines exist for economic evaluations in clinical pharmacology and are an important component for health technology assessments (HTAs in many countries. However, these guidelines have initially been developed for traditional pharmaceuticals and not for complex interventions with multiple components. This raises the issue as to whether these guidelines are adequate to SM interventions or whether new specific guidance and methodology is needed to avoid inconsistencies and contradictory findings when assessing economic value in SM.Objective: This article describes specific methodological challenges when conducting health economic (HE evaluations for SM interventions and outlines potential modifications necessary to existing evaluation guidelines /principles that would promote consistent economic evaluations for SM.Results/Conclusions: Specific methodological aspects for SM comprise considerations on the choice of comparator, measuring effectiveness and outcomes, appropriate modelling structure and the scope of sensitivity analyses. Although current HE methodology can be applied for SM, greater complexity requires further methodology development and modifications in the guidelines.

  20. Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

    OpenAIRE

    Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

  1. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  2. Economic evaluation, human immunodeficiency virus infection and screening: a review and critical appraisal of economic studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibosa-Osadolor, Onome; Roberts, Tracy

    2010-07-01

    The aim of this study was to review, systematically and critically, evidence used to derive estimates of cost-effectiveness of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) screening. A systematic review was conducted. Searched were three main electronic bibliographic databases from 1993 to 2008 using key words including HIV, mass screening, HAART, economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness analysis, modeling. We included studies of sexually transmitted HIV infection in both sexes, including studies comparing diagnostic testing protocols and partner notification. Outcomes included were cases of HIV infection detected, deterioration to the AIDS state, secondary transmission of HIV, the quality-adjusted life-years/survival, costs, and cost-effectiveness of HIV screening. Eighty-four papers were identified; ten of which were formal economic evaluations, one cost study, three effectiveness studies, and three systematic reviews of HIV prevention programs. The predominant assertion was that HIV screening is cost-effective; methodological problems, such as the preponderance of static models which are inappropriate for infectious diseases, varying perspectives from which the studies were analyzed, and arbitrary threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio levels, limited the validity of these findings, and their usefulness in informing health policy decisions. The majority of published economic evaluations are based on inappropriate static models. This flaw renders the results of these studies as inconclusive and the purported cost-effectiveness of HIV screening debatable. The results of this review could form a basis for consideration of further research and analysis by health economists into the cost-effectiveness of HIV screening.

  3. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  4. The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

  5. Handling time in economic evaluation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permsuwan, Unchalee; Guntawongwan, Kansinee; Buddhawongsa, Piyaluk

    2014-05-01

    The discount rates and time horizons used in a health technology assessment (HTA) can have a significant impact on the results, and thus the prioritization of technologies. Therefore, it is important that clear guidance be provided on the appropriate discount rates for cost and health effect and appropriate time horizons. In this paper we conduct a review of relevant case studies and guidelines and provide guidance for all researchers conducting economic evaluations of health technologies in the Thai context. A uniform discount rate of 3% is recommended for both costs and health effects in base case analyses. A sensitivity analysis should also be conducted, with a discount range of 0-6%. For technologies where the effects are likely to sustain for at least 30y ears, a rate of 4% for costs and 2% for health effects is recommended. The time horizon should be long enough to capture the full costs and effects of the programs.

  6. Solar energy system economic evaluation: Fern Tunkhannock, Tunkhannock, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    The economic performance of an Operational Test Site (OTS) is described. The long term economic performance of the system at its installation site and extrapolation to four additional selected locations to demonstrate the viability of the design over a broad range of environmental and economic conditions is reported. Topics discussed are: system description, study approach, economic analysis and system optimization, and technical and economical results of analysis. Data for the economic analysis are generated through evaluation of the OTS. The simulation is based on the technical results of the seasonal report simulation. In addition localized and standard economic parameters are used for economic analysis.

  7. Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, A.

    2001-03-01

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

  8. Economic aspects and models for building codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

    It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

  9. The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poursina, B.

    1998-08-01

    Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  11. Economic evaluation of fast reactor fuel cycling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Ping; Zhao Fuyu; Yan Zhou; Li Chong

    2012-01-01

    Economic calculation and analysis of two kinds of nuclear fuel cycle are conducted by check off method, based on the nuclear fuel cycling process and model for fast reactor power plant, and comparison is carried out for the economy of fast reactor fuel cycle and PWR once-through fuel cycle. Calculated based on the current price level, the economy of PWR one-through fuel cycle is better than that of the fast reactor fuel cycle. However, in the long term considering the rising of the natural uranium's price and the development of the post treatment technology for nuclear fuels, the cost of the fast reactor fuel cycle is expected to match or lower than that of the PWR once-through fuel cycle. (authors)

  12. Integrated Emergy and Economic Evaluation of Lotus-Root ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotus (Neumbo nucifera, Gaertn) is the most important aquatic vegetable in China, with a cultivation history of over 3000 years. The emergy, energy, material, and money flows of three lotus root cultivation modes in Wanqingsha, Nansha District, Guangzhou, China were examined using Energy Systems Language models and emergy evaluation to better understand their ecological and economic characteristics on multiple spatial and temporal scales. The natural resource foundations, economic characteristics and sustainability of these modes were evaluated and compared. The results showed that although all three modes were highly dependent on purchased emergy inputs, their potential impacts as measured by the local (ELRL) and global (ELRW) environmental loading ratios were less than 1.2 and 0.7, respectively. The lotus-fish mode was the most sustainable with its emergy index of sustainable development (EISD) 2.09 and 2.13 times that of the pure lotus and lotus-shrimp modes, respectively. All three lotus-root production modes had superior economic viability, since their Output/Input ratio ranged from 2.56 to 4.95. The results indicated that agricultural systems may have different environmental impacts and sustainability characteristics at different spatial and temporal scales, and that these impacts and characteristics can be simultaneously explored using integrated emergy and economic evaluations. This study provides some major new insights about agriculture and its potenti

  13. Angra 3 - economic and financial evaluation of the enterprise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrade, Ronaldo Barata de

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents an updated economic-financial evaluation of Angra 3 Nuclear Power Plant project and estimates the lowest power tariff value at which power potentially made available may be commercialized and yet ensures the project a profitability level agreeable to the interests of economic agents and shareholders. According to the project evaluation practice, Angra 3 power generation was considered separately from ELETRONUCLEAR operating plants (Angra 1 and Angra 2), thus preventing result distortions bound to occur if the economic-financial variables of the new project were analyzed associated with financial commitments and commercialization conditions resulting from the project implementation process and the generated power commercialization conditions, respectively. For this evaluation different technical and economic scenarios were devised, and the theory of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for Own Capital cost and that of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) were used in addition to the forecast of the Statement of Results and Free Cash flow of Shareholders throughout the power plant life, which is the estimate basis for the lowest power tariff value and the Internal Return Rate (IRR) of the project. (author)

  14. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  15. Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, W. F.

    1977-07-29

    The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

  16. Health economic modelling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes and related macrosomia – a pilot evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene eLenoir-Wijnkoop

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes (GDM and associated with increased morbidity for mother and child in the perinatal period. Poorly controlled diabetes during pregnancy, pre- pregnancy maternal obesity and/or excessive maternal weight gain during pregnancy are associated with intermittent periods of fetal exposure to hyperglycemia and subsequent hyperinsulinemia, leading to increased birth weight (e.g. macrosomia, body adiposity and glycogen storage in the liver. Macrosomia is associated with an increased risk of developing obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus later in life.Objective: Provide insight in the short-term health-economic impact of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes (GDM and related macrosomia. To this end, a health economic framework was designed. This pilot study also aims to encourage further health technology assessments, based on country- and population-specific data. Results: The estimation of the direct health-economic burden of maternal overweight, GDM and related macrosomia indicates that associated healthcare expenditures are substantial. The calculation of a budget impact of GDM, based on a conservative approach of our model, using USA costing data, indicates an annual cost of more than $1,8 billion without taking into account long-term consequences.Conclusion: Although overweight and obesity are a recognized concern worldwide, less attention has been given to the health economic consequences of these conditions in women of child-bearing age and their offspring. The presented outcomes underline the need for preventive management strategies and public health interventions on life style, diet and physical activity. Also, the predisposition in people of Asian ethnicity to develop

  17. Evaluation of Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: A Systematic Review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Timothy K.; Goodman, Chris D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Boldt, R. Gabriel [London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario (Canada); Warner, Andrew; Palma, David A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Rodrigues, George B. [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University, London, Ontario (Canada); Lock, Michael I. [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Mishra, Mark V. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Zaric, Gregory S. [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University, London, Ontario (Canada); Ivey Business School, Western University, London, Ontario (Canada); Louie, Alexander V., E-mail: Dr.alexlouie@gmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, London Regional Cancer Program, London, Ontario (Canada); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Western University, London, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-04-01

    Purpose: Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time. Methods and Materials: A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis for qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time. Results: In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P<.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P<.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065). Conclusions: Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions

  18. Evaluation of Health Economics in Radiation Oncology: A Systematic Review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Timothy K.; Goodman, Chris D.; Boldt, R. Gabriel; Warner, Andrew; Palma, David A.; Rodrigues, George B.; Lock, Michael I.; Mishra, Mark V.; Zaric, Gregory S.; Louie, Alexander V.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Despite the rising costs in radiation oncology, the impact of health economics research on radiation therapy practice analysis patterns is unclear. We performed a systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) and cost-utility analyses (CUAs) to identify trends in reporting quality in the radiation oncology literature over time. Methods and Materials: A systematic review of radiation oncology economic evaluations up to 2014 was performed, using MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards guideline informed data abstraction variables including study demographics, economic parameters, and methodological details. Tufts Medical Center CEA registry quality scores provided a basis for qualitative assessment of included studies. Studies were stratified by 3 time periods (1995-2004, 2005-2009, and 2010-2014). The Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear trend test were used to identify trends over time. Results: In total, 102 articles were selected for final review. Most studies were in the context of a model (61%) or clinical trial (28%). Many studies lacked a conflict of interest (COI) statement (67%), a sponsorship statement (48%), a reported study time horizon (35%), and the use of discounting (29%). There was a significant increase over time in the reporting of a COI statement (P<.001), health care payer perspective (P=.019), sensitivity analyses using multivariate (P=.043) or probabilistic methods (P=.011), incremental cost-effectiveness threshold (P<.001), secondary source utility weights (P=.010), and cost effectiveness acceptability curves (P=.049). There was a trend toward improvement in Tuft scores over time (P=.065). Conclusions: Recent reports demonstrate improved reporting rates in economic evaluations; however, there remains significant room for improvement as reporting rates are still suboptimal. As fiscal pressures rise, we will rely on economic assessments to guide our practice decisions

  19. Methodology for evaluation of economic security of industrial enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Kopytko Marta Ivanovna

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the features of evaluation of ensuring economic security of industrial enterprises and the algorithm of complex evaluation of the economic security of industrial enterprises over time and the system of criteria and their limit values ​​and the dynamics of change to determine the level of economic security industrial enterprise in terms of its components.

  20. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  1. Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Welfare Evaluation and the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply ... In a context of positive economic growth, demand for water is expected to ... Socially equitable climate action is essential to strengthen the resilience of all ...

  2. Agent-based model for electricity consumption and storage to evaluate economic viability of tariff arbitrage for residential sector demand response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng, Menglian; Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Storage-based demand response (loadshifting) is underutilized in residential sector. • Economics (arbitrage savings versus equipment cost) are not well understood. • Stochastic demand models and real-life tariffs can illuminate economic viability. • A range of available storage options provide economically viable DR. • Daily/seasonal stochastic demand variations crucial to understanding optimum capacity. - Abstract: Demand response (DR) is one of many approaches to address temporal mismatches in demand and supply of grid electricity. More common in the commercial sector, DR usually refers to reducing consumption at certain hours or seasons, thus reducing peak demand from the grid. In the residential sector, where sophisticated appliance-level controls such as automatic dimming of lights or on-demand lowering of air conditioning are less common, building-based electricity storage to shift grid consumption from peak to off-peak times could provide DR without requiring consumers to operate their appliances on shifted or reduced schedules: Storage would be dispatched to appliances as needed while still shaving peaks on the grid. Technologically, storage and two-way-inverters are readily available to enable such residential DR. Economically, however, the situation is less clear. Specifically, are time-varying electricity tariffs available such that electricity cost reduction via arbitrage could offset manufacturing, financing, and installation costs of the required storage? To address this question we (i) devise an agent-based appliance-level stochastic model to simulate the electricity demand of an average U.S. household; (ii) loadshift the demand via simple dispatch strategies; and (iii) determine potential profits to the building owner, i.e. reduced electricity cost of the modified demand with realistic tariffs (Con Edison, NY) minus storage cost. We determine the economic viability for a range of traditional and advanced storage technologies

  3. Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

  4. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  5. Economic evaluation of bids for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    The purpose of the guidebook is to assist an organisation responsible for a nuclear power project in evaluating and establishing an economic order of merit among competing bids. An approximate overall time schedule for a first nuclear power plant project is provided. A schematic outline of technical bid evaluation is given. The basic procedure of economic bid evaluation is outlined, e.g. evaluation of the present worth of all cost items of plant capital investment, of the nuclear cycle, of O and M costs (operation and maintenance costs), and of economic corrections. All these cost items are evaluated for the economic life of the plant and corrected for escalation where applicable

  6. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  7. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  8. Logistic map with memory from economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

    2017-01-01

    A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

  9. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  10. Economic evaluations in pain management: principles and methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asche, Carl V; Seal, Brian; Jackson, Kenneth C; Oderda, Gary M

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes how investigators may design, conduct, and report economic evaluations of pharmacotherapy for pain and symptom management. Because economic evaluation of therapeutic interventions is becoming increasingly important, there is a need for guidance on how economic evaluations can be optimally conducted. The steps required to conduct an economic evaluation are described to provide this guidance. Economic evaluations require two or more therapeutic interventions to be compared in relation to costs and effects. There are five types of economic evaluations, based on analysis of: (1) cost-effectiveness, (2) cost-utility, (3) cost-minimization, (4) cost-consequence, and (5) cost-benefit analyses. The six required steps are: identify the perspective of the study; identify the alternatives that will be compared; identify the relevant costs and effects; determine how to collect the cost and effect data; determine how to perform calculation for cost and effects data; and determine the manner in which to depict the results and draw comparisons.

  11. Economic evaluation of emergency obstetric care training: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banke-Thomas, Aduragbemi; Wilson-Jones, Megan; Madaj, Barbara; van den Broek, Nynke

    2017-12-04

    need to scale-up and standardise processes that capture both cost and effectiveness of training and to agree on suitable economic evaluation models that allow for comparability across settings. PROSPERO_CRD42016041911 .

  12. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  13. An economic model for seaborne oil trade

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kian-Wah

    1996-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

  14. Pressure ulcers management: an economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foglia, E; Restelli, U; Napoletano, A M; Coclite, D; Porazzi, E; Bonfanti, M; Croce, D

    2012-03-01

    Pressure ulcer management represents a growing problem for medical and social health care systems all over the world, particularly in European Union countries where the incidence of pressure ulcers in older persons (> 60 years of age) is predicted to rise. The aim of this study was to provide evidence for the lower impact on economic resources of using advanced dressings for the treatment of pressure ulcers with respect to conventional simple dressings. Two different models of analysis, derived from Activity Based Costing and Health Technology Assessment, were used to measure, over a 30-day period, the direct costs incurred by pressure ulcer treatment for community-residing patients receiving integrated home care. Although the mean cost per home care visit was higher in the advanced dressings patient group than in the simple dressings patient one (E 22.31 versus E 16.03), analysis of the data revealed that the cost of using advanced dressings was lower due to fewer home care visits (22 versus 11). The results underline the fact that decision-makers need to improve their understanding of the advantages of taking a long-term view with regards to the purchase and use of materials. This could produce considerable savings of resources in addition to improving treatment efficacy for the benefit of patients and the health care system.

  15. Improving early cycle economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steuten, Lotte Maria Gertruda; Ramsey, Scott D.

    2014-01-01

    The rapidly increasing range and expense of new diagnostics, compels consideration of a different, more proactive approach to health economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies. Early cycle economic evaluation is a decision analytic approach to evaluate technologies in development so as to

  16. Modelos matemáticos para la evaluación económica: los modelos dinámicos basados en ecuaciones diferenciales Mathematical models for economic evaluation: dynamic models based on differential equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Pradas Velasco

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available La utilización conjunta de árboles de decisión y modelos epidemiológicos basados en ecuaciones diferenciales es un método apropiado para la evaluación económica de medidas profilácticas ante enfermedades infecciosas. Estos modelos permiten combinar el comportamiento dinámico de la enfermedad con el consumo de recursos sanitarios. Para ilustrar este tipo de modelos se ajusta un sistema dinámico de ecuaciones diferenciales al comportamiento epidémico de la gripe en España, con el fin de proyectar el impacto epidemiológico de la vacunación antigripal. Los resultados del modelo dinámico se implementan en un diagrama con estructura de árbol para medir el consumo de recursos sanitarios y su repercusión en términos monetarios.The joint utilization of both decision trees and epidemiological models based on differential equations is an appropriate method for the economic evaluation of preventative interventions applied to infectious diseases. These models can combine the dynamic pattern of the disease together with health resource consumption. To illustrate this type of model, we adjusted a dynamic system of differential equations to the epidemic behavior of influenza in Spain, with a view to projecting the epidemiologic impact of influenza vaccination. The results of the epidemic model are implemented in a diagram with the structure of a decision tree so that health resource consumption and the economic implications can be calculated.

  17. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  18. Economical modelling of social and moral norms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyborg, Karine

    2001-01-01

    Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

  19. The impact of cancer drug wastage on economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Judy; Cheung, Matthew C; Mai, Helen; Letargo, Jessa; Chambers, Alexandra; Sabharwal, Mona; Trudeau, Maureen E; Chan, Kelvin K W

    2017-09-15

    The objective of this study was to determine the impact of modeling cancer drug wastage in economic evaluations because wastage can result from single-dose vials on account of body surface area- or weight-based dosing. Intravenous chemotherapy drugs were identified from the pan-Canadian Oncology Drug Review (pCODR) program as of January 2015. Economic evaluations performed by drug manufacturers and pCODR were reviewed. Cost-effectiveness analyses and budget impact analyses were conducted for no-wastage and maximum-wastage scenarios (ie, the entire unused portion of the vial was discarded at each infusion). Sensitivity analyses were performed for a range of body surface areas and weights. Twelve drugs used for 17 indications were analyzed. Wastage was reported (ie, assumptions were explicit) in 71% of the models and was incorporated into 53% by manufacturers; this resulted in a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increase of 6.1% (range, 1.3%-14.6%). pCODR reported and incorporated wastage for 59% of the models, and this resulted in a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increase of 15.0% (range, 2.6%-48.2%). In the maximum-wastage scenario, there was a mean increase in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 24.0% (range, 0.0%-97.2%), a mean increase in the 3-year total incremental budget costs of 26.0% (range, 0.0%-83.1%), and an increase in the 3-year total incremental drug budget cost of approximately CaD $102 million nationally. Changing the mean body surface area or body weight caused 45% of the drugs to have a change in the vial size and/or quantity, and this resulted in increased drug costs. Cancer drug wastage can increase drug costs but is not uniformly modeled in economic evaluations. Cancer 2017;123:3583-90. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  20. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

  1. Introduction course on the economical evaluation of energy projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.

    1992-06-01

    A theoretical course on the financial and economical evaluation of energy projects is presented. The course was organized by the Banque Mondiale in Bujumbura, Burundi, from 11 to 16 November 1991. Subsequently attention is paid to the basics of economic analysis, the financial and the economical analysis of an investment project, and finally the prices of energy products. 4 figs., 13 refs

  2. Economic evaluation of reprocessing - Indicative German position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    This paper, which also appears as an Appendix to the final Working Group 4 report, forms part of the overall economic assessment of reprocessing. The indicative national position and illustrative ''phase diagram'' for the Federal Republic of Germany is presented. Advantages to be gained from the recycling of plutonium in thermal reactors are identified and it is concluded that many of these are not explicitly taken into account in the ''phase diagram''. Under the conditions pertaining in the Federal Republic of Germany thermal recycle will be economic under present day uranium prices. On the other hand the fast breeder reactor might become commercially economic around the year 2000

  3. Evaluation of economic rent of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Abeygunawardana, A.M.A.K.

    2009-01-01

    Existing studies have mostly estimated the ex post economic rent of hydropower for the hydroelectric system of a province or a country as a whole and have ignored the site- or project-specific variations in the economic rent of hydropower plants. Further, most of the existing studies have used simplified methods to calculate the rent ex post. This paper presents a rigorous methodology for estimation of site-specific (i.e., project specific) economic rent of hydropower ex ante. It applies the methodology in the case of a hydropower project and analyzes the sensitivity of the rent to variations in some key parameters.

  4. Economic evaluation of reprocessing. Indicative UK position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    This paper, which also appears as an Appendix to the final Working Group 4 report, forms part of the overall economic assessment of reprocessing. The indicative national position and illustrative ''phase diagram'' for the United Kingdom is presented. Under conditions pertaining in the United Kingdom the diagram suggests that: if uranium prices rise rapidly the fast reactor would become economic in the decade 1990-2000, if uranium prices rise more slowly, the fast reactor would become economic in the decade 2000-2010

  5. [Basic principles and methodological considerations of health economic evaluations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loza, Cesar; Castillo-Portilla, Manuel; Rojas, José Luis; Huayanay, Leandro

    2011-01-01

    Health Economics is an essential instrument for health management, and economic evaluations can be considered as tools assisting the decision-making process for the allocation of resources in health. Currently, economic evaluations are increasingly being used worldwide, thus encouraging evidence-based decision-making and seeking efficient and rational alternatives within the framework of health services activities. In this review, we present an overview and define the basic types of economic evaluations, with emphasis on complete Economic Evaluations (EE). In addition, we review key concepts regarding the perspectives from which EE can be conducted, the types of costs that can be considered, the time horizon, discounting, assessment of uncertainty and decision rules. Finally, we describe concepts about the extrapolation and spread of economic evaluations in health.

  6. Economic evaluation of coalbed methane production in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Dongkun; Dai Youjin

    2009-01-01

    Roaring natural gas demand, energy security and environment protection concerns coupled with stringent emission reduction requirement have made China's abundant coalbed methane (CBM) resource an increasingly valuable energy source. However, not all of China's CBM resource is economic to develop under current technological condition and economic situation. In order to locate the CBM resource with economic viability to develop in China, economic evaluation of CBM production is conducted by applying net present value (NPV) method. The results indicate that more than half of CBM resource in China is economic to develop. It shows that CBM price, production rate and operating costs are the three major factors with most impact on the economic viability of the CBM development in target areas in China. The result also demonstrates that the economic limit production is roughly 1200 cubic meters per day. These economic evaluation results provide important information for both CBM companies and China government.

  7. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  8. New York State Technical & Economic MAGLEV Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-06-01

    The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, with the : assistance of the Departments of Transportation, Economic Development, Environmental Conservation, and the New York State Thruway Authority, is undertaking a comprehensive, syst...

  9. Economic evaluation of reprocessing. Indicative US position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-05-01

    This paper, which also appears as an Appendix to the final Working Group 4 report, forms part of the overall economic assessment of reprocessing. The indicative national position and illustrative ''phase diagram'' for the United States is presented. The prospective costs of nuclear power are given for four equilibrium modes of LWR operation: once-through, 15% and 25% improved once-through and thermal recycle. For a particular representative choice of fuel cycle parameters the economic cross over at which thermal recycle becomes economic relative to a 15% improved once-through cycle is above 100/lb U 3 O 8 . Thus the US believes that for the next several decades there is no economic incentive for thermal recycle. As a planning guide the US considers that the fast reactor will not become commercialised in the US before the year 2020

  10. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  11. Technical and economic evaluation of nuclear seawater desalination systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grechko, A.G.; Romenkov, A.A.; Shishkin, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    The IAEA Cogeneration/Desalination Cost Model spreadsheets were used for the economic evaluation of sea water desalination plants coupled with small and medium size nuclear reactors developed in RDIPE. The results of calculations have shown that the cost of potable water is equal to or even below 1$/m 3 . This is very close to similar indices of the best fossil driven desalination plants. For remote and difficult-to-access regions, where the transportation share contributes significantly to the product water cost at fossil plants, the nuclear power sources of these reactor types are cost-efficient and can successfully compete with fossil power sources. (author)

  12. Evaluation the potential economic impacts of Taiwanese biomass energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Chi-Chung; McCarl, Bruce; Chang, Ching-Cheng; Tso, Chunto

    2011-01-01

    The Taiwanese rice paddy land set-aside program diverts a substantial land area. Given today's high energy prices and interests in energy security, that set-aside area could be converted to produce bioenergy feedstocks. This study evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of such a policy change using a Taiwanese agricultural sector model. The results show that such a strategy provides increased farm revenue, increased rural employment, increased energy sufficiency and reduced greenhouse gas emissions but also increased government expenditures. These outcomes indicate that the agricultural sector could play a positive role by producing renewable energy. -- Highlights: → This paper evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of converting set-aside area to produce bioenergy feedstocks. → Taiwanese agricultural sector model is built and applied to evaluate such impacts. → The empirical results show that producing bioenergy using set-aside area could provide increased farm revenue, increased rural employment, increased energy sufficiency and reduced greenhouse gas emissions but also increased government expenditures. → Agricultural sector in Taiwan could play a positive role by producing renewable energy.

  13. Economic evaluation of interventions designed to reduce Clostridium difficile infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brain, David; Yakob, Laith; Barnett, Adrian; Riley, Thomas; Clements, Archie; Halton, Kate; Graves, Nicholas

    2018-01-01

    Healthcare decision-makers are increasingly expected to balance increasing demand for health services with a finite budget. The role of economic evaluation in healthcare is increasing and this research provides decision-makers with new information about the management of Clostridium difficile infection, from an economic perspective. A model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify the most cost-effective healthcare intervention relating to the reduction of Clostridium difficile transmission. Efficacy evidence was synthesised from the literature and was used to inform the effectiveness of both bundled approaches and stand-alone interventions, where appropriate intervention combinations were coupled together. Changes in health outcomes were estimated by combining information about intervention effectiveness and its subsequent impact on quality of life. A bundled approach of improving hand hygiene and environmental cleaning produces the best combination of increased health benefits and cost-savings. It has the highest mean net monetary benefit when compared to all other interventions. This intervention remains the optimal decision under different clinical circumstances, such as when mortality rate and patient length of stay are increased. Bundled interventions offered the best opportunity for health improvements. These findings provide healthcare decision-makers with novel information about the allocation of scarce resources relating to Clostridium difficile. If investments are not made in interventions that clearly yield gains in health outcomes, the allocation and use of scarce healthcare resources is inappropriate and improvements in health outcomes will be forgone.

  14. Economic evaluation of interventions designed to reduce Clostridium difficile infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Brain

    Full Text Available Healthcare decision-makers are increasingly expected to balance increasing demand for health services with a finite budget. The role of economic evaluation in healthcare is increasing and this research provides decision-makers with new information about the management of Clostridium difficile infection, from an economic perspective.A model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify the most cost-effective healthcare intervention relating to the reduction of Clostridium difficile transmission. Efficacy evidence was synthesised from the literature and was used to inform the effectiveness of both bundled approaches and stand-alone interventions, where appropriate intervention combinations were coupled together. Changes in health outcomes were estimated by combining information about intervention effectiveness and its subsequent impact on quality of life.A bundled approach of improving hand hygiene and environmental cleaning produces the best combination of increased health benefits and cost-savings. It has the highest mean net monetary benefit when compared to all other interventions. This intervention remains the optimal decision under different clinical circumstances, such as when mortality rate and patient length of stay are increased. Bundled interventions offered the best opportunity for health improvements.These findings provide healthcare decision-makers with novel information about the allocation of scarce resources relating to Clostridium difficile. If investments are not made in interventions that clearly yield gains in health outcomes, the allocation and use of scarce healthcare resources is inappropriate and improvements in health outcomes will be forgone.

  15. Economic evaluation of nurse practitioner and clinical nurse specialist roles: A methodological review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopatina, Elena; Donald, Faith; DiCenso, Alba; Martin-Misener, Ruth; Kilpatrick, Kelley; Bryant-Lukosius, Denise; Carter, Nancy; Reid, Kim; Marshall, Deborah A

    2017-07-01

    Advanced practice nurses (e.g., nurse practitioners and clinical nurse specialists) have been introduced internationally to increase access to high quality care and to tackle increasing health care expenditures. While randomised controlled trials and systematic reviews have demonstrated the effectiveness of nurse practitioner and clinical nurse specialist roles, their cost-effectiveness has been challenged. The poor quality of economic evaluations of these roles to date raises the question of whether current economic evaluation guidelines are adequate when examining their cost-effectiveness. To examine whether current guidelines for economic evaluation are appropriate for economic evaluations of nurse practitioner and clinical nurse specialist roles. Our methodological review was informed by a qualitative synthesis of four sources of information: 1) narrative review of literature reviews and discussion papers on economic evaluation of advanced practice nursing roles; 2) quality assessment of economic evaluations of nurse practitioner and clinical nurse specialist roles alongside randomised controlled trials; 3) review of guidelines for economic evaluation; and, 4) input from an expert panel. The narrative literature review revealed several challenges in economic evaluations of advanced practice nursing roles (e.g., complexity of the roles, variability in models and practice settings where the roles are implemented, and impact on outcomes that are difficult to measure). The quality assessment of economic evaluations of nurse practitioner and clinical nurse specialist roles alongside randomised controlled trials identified methodological limitations of these studies. When we applied the Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Health Technologies: Canada to the identified challenges and limitations, discussed those with experts and qualitatively synthesized all findings, we concluded that standard guidelines for economic evaluation are appropriate for economic

  16. Economic evaluation of preconcentration of uranium ores

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-04-01

    The economics of two options for the preconcentration of low-grade uranium ores prior to hydrochloric acid leaching were studied. The first option uses flotation followed by wet high-intensity magnetic separation. The second option omits the flotation step. In each case it was assumed that most of the pyrite in the ore would be recovered by froth flotation, dewatered, and roasted to produce sulphuric acid and a calcine suitable for acid leaching. Savings in operating costs from preconcentration are offset by the value of uranium losses. However, a capital saving of approximately 6 million dollars is indicated for each preconcentration option. As a result of the capital saving, preconcentration appears to be economically attractive when combined with hydrochloric acid leaching. There appears to be no economic advantage to preconcentration in combination with sulphuric acid leaching of the ore

  17. Economic evaluation of intermediate operations in oak stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry H. Webster; John C., Jr. Meadows

    1971-01-01

    Economic evaluation of forest-management opportunities is a vital ingredient of effective forestry programs. Choices among management opportunities are necessary because opportunities inevitably exceed funds available, and they are important because opportunities commonly range from highly productive to decidedly unproductive. Economic evaluation in oak stands shows a...

  18. Preliminary economic evaluation of the Alkox process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, L.J.; Lilga, M.A.; Camaioni, D.M.; Snowden, L.J.

    1991-09-01

    A new chemical process has been invented at Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories for converting alkanes to alcohols. This new chemistry has been named the ''Alkox Process.'' Pacific Northwest Laboratory prepared a preliminary economic analysis for converting cyclohexane to cyclohexanol, which may be one of the most attractive applications of the Alkox process. A process flow scheme and a material balance were prepared to support rough equipment sizing and costing. The results from the economic analysis are presented in the non-proprietary section of this report. The process details, including the flow diagram and material balance, are contained in separate section of this report that is proprietary to Battelle. 7 refs., 4 tabs

  19. The IIR evaluation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borlund, Pia

    2003-01-01

    An alternative approach to evaluation of interactive information retrieval (IIR) systems, referred to as the IIR evaluation model, is proposed. The model provides a framework for the collection and analysis of IR interaction data. The aim of the model is two-fold: 1) to facilitate the evaluation ...

  20. Evaluating the effectiveness of carbon tax for total emission control of carbon dioxide. Systems analysis of a dynamic environmental-economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamura, Hiroyuki; Abe, Makoto; Tomiyama, Shinji; Hatono, Itsuo

    1999-01-01

    This paper deals with how to evaluate the effectiveness of carbon tax (environmental tax) for regulating the carbon dioxide emissions. For this purpose we mainly deal with a primal problem and its dual problem of dynamic linear programming model. The primal problem is formulated by using Leontief type input-output model and the basic idea of commodity stocks. It represents the balance of materials. The dual problem is obtained and interpreted as cash balance. It is clarified in this paper whether the carbon tax is effective to decrease the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions. (author)

  1. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  2. Economic evaluation of a coal fired boiler

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Briem, J.J.

    1983-01-01

    This paper provides basic information on boiler economics which will assist steam users in analyzing the feasibility of using coal to generate steam - in either new or existing facilities. The information presented covers boilers ranging in size from 10,000 to 100,000 pounds per hour steaming capacity

  3. Economic evaluation of tokamak power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, R.L.; Steiner, D.

    1977-01-01

    This study reports the impact of plasma operating characteristics, engineering options, and technology on the capital cost trends of tokamak power plants. Tokamak power systems are compared to other advanced energy systems and found to be economically competitive. A three-phase strategy for demonstrating commercial feasibility of fusion power, based on a common-site multiple-unit concept, is presented

  4. Economic evaluation of investment in electricity conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, Nir; Fishman, Yaron; Lavee, Doron

    2008-01-01

    The paper presents an economic study of the potential for energy conservation in Israel. We analyze energy conservation policies targeted at the household sector, focusing on the economic feasibility of scrapping old household electrical appliances, and considering the effect of such policies at both the household and the macro-economic level. The results of our analysis show that the appliance that provides the most potential conservation is the air conditioner (used for both heating and cooling). A scrapping program for old air conditioners passes a cost benefit analysis (CBA) even when external benefits are excluded from the calculation. When external benefits are included, scrapping programs for both washing machines and dishwashers pass the test as well. According to our findings, the annual economic benefit of a program involving the scrapping of 100,000 air conditioners, 45,000 washing machines and 15,000 dishwashers per annum over 10 years ranges from 246 million New Israeli Shekels (NIS) in the first year of implementation to 693 million in the tenth year. Most of the savings are derived from the scrapping of air conditioners

  5. Efficiency evaluation of China's investment in Africa under the background of constructing "Silk Road Economic Belt": Application of DEA model and Malmquist index method

    OpenAIRE

    Ze, Tian; Yumei, Fan; Chao, Liu

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, with implementation and propulsion of the strategic planning "One Belt and One Road" of China, quality and efficiency of China's foreign direct investment have increasingly become a focused issue. This paper utilizes the DEA model and Malmquist index method to select the data of China's investment in 20 countries of Africa and conducts the empirical research on dynamic evaluation of efficiency of China's direct investment in Africa. The result shows that the general efficienc...

  6. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  7. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  8. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  9. Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

    1986-01-01

    Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

  10. Economic evaluation of test-and-treat and empirical treatment strategies in the eradication of Helicobacter pylori infection; A Markov model in an Iranian adult population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazdaki, Alireza; Ghiasvand, Hesam; Sarabi Asiabar, Ali; Naghdi, Seyran; Aryankhesal, Aidin

    2016-01-01

    Helicobacter pylori may cause many gastrointestinal problems in developing countries such as Iran. We aimed to analyze the cost- effectiveness and cost- utility of the test-and-treat and empirical treatment strategies in managing Helicobacter pylori infection. This was a Markov based economic evaluation. Effectiveness was defined as the symptoms free numbers and QALYs in 100,000 hypothetical adults. The sensitivity analysis was based on Monte Carlo approach. In the test- and- treat strategy, if the serology is the first diagnostic test vs. histology, the cost per symptoms free number would be 291,736.1 Rials while the cost per QALYs would be 339,226.1 Rials. The cost per symptoms free number and cost per QALYs when the 13 C-UBT was used as the first diagnostic test vs. serology was 1,283,200 and 1,492,103 Rials, respectively. In the empirical strategy, if histology is used as the first diagnostic test vs. 13 CUBT, the cost per symptoms free numbers and cost per QALYs would be 793,234 and 955,698 Rials, respectively. If serology were used as the first diagnostic test vs. histology, the cost per symptoms free and QALYs would be 793,234 and 368941 Rials, respectively. There was no significant and considerable dominancy between the alternatives and the diagnostic tests.

  11. Conceptual Framework of Economic Evaluation on SMRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Jin Sam; Kim, Jee Young; Kim, Chang Hoon

    2010-01-01

    Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) launched a project to develop an integral reactor in 1996. The reactor called as System Integrated Modular Advanced Reactor(SMART) which is a kind of small modular reactors (SMRs). Since the early 1990s, there has been renewed interest in the development and application of small and medium sized integral reactors. 2009 assessment by the IAEA under its Innovative Nuclear Power Reactor and Fuel Cycle (INPRO) program concluded that there could be 96 SMRs in operation around the world by 2030 in its 'high' case, and 43 units in the 'low' case, none of them in the USA. The reason of the increased demand mostly comes from the fact that SMRs are thought to be more suitable for developing countries with small electrical grid capacity, insufficient infrastructure and limited investment capability than developed ones. However, it has disadvantage in the point of scale of economy. So, it should be compared the amount of this advantage and disadvantage which differ from the circumstances of the countries. In this work, conceptual framework was built up for suitable evaluation model of SMRs to be utilized in the future detailed study

  12. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  13. The discount rate in the economic evaluation of prevention: a thought experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.G.A. Bonneux (Luc); E. Birnie (Erwin)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractOBJECTIVES: In the standard economic model of evaluation, constant discount rates devalue the long term health benefits of prevention strongly. This study shows that it is unlikely that this reflects societal preference. DESIGN: A thought experiment in a

  14. Applying the AHP in Health Economic Evaluations of New Technology.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; Steuten, Lotte Maria Gertruda; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina Gerarda Maria; IJzerman, Maarten Joost

    2011-01-01

    Much research in health care is devoted to health economical modelling. Even though the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is increasingly being applied in health care, its value to health economical modelling is still unrecognized. We explored the value of using AHP-derived results in a health

  15. Economic evaluation of CO2 pipeline transport in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Dongjie; Wang Zhe; Sun Jining; Zhang Lili; Li Zheng

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We build a static hydrodynamic model of CO 2 pipeline for CCS application. ► We study the impact on pressure drop of pipeline by viscosity, density and elevation. ► We point out that density has a bigger impact on pressure drop than viscosity. ► We suggest dense phase transport is preferred than supercritical state. ► We present cost-optimal pipeline diameters for different flowrates and distances. - Abstract: Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is an important option for CO 2 mitigation and an optimized CO 2 pipeline transport system is necessary for large scale CCS implementation. In the present work, a hydrodynamic model for CO 2 pipeline transport was built up and the hydrodynamic performances of CO 2 pipeline as well as the impacts of multiple factors on pressure drop behavior along the pipeline were studied. Based on the model, an economic model was established to optimize the CO 2 pipeline transport system economically and to evaluate the unit transport cost of CO 2 pipeline in China. The hydrodynamic model results show that pipe diameter, soil temperature, and pipeline elevation change have significant influence on the pressure drop behavior of CO 2 in the pipeline. The design of pipeline system, including pipeline diameter and number of boosters etc., was optimized to achieve a lowest unit CO 2 transport cost. In regarding to the unit cost, when the transport flow rate and distance are between 1–5 MtCO 2 /year and 100–500 km, respectively, the unit CO 2 transport cost mainly lies between 0.1–0.6 RMB/(tCO 2 km) and electricity consumption cost of the pipeline inlet compressor was found to take more than 60% of the total cost. The present work provides reference for CO 2 transport pipeline design and for feasibility evaluation of potential CCS projects in China.

  16. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  17. Improved fuel design economics - a new evaluation tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboudara, J.L.

    1987-01-01

    Advanced fuel design technology is now beginning to be implemented with new reload regions for large pressurized water reactors. Until recently there has not been an integrated computer modeling product that would allow easy assessment of the economics of various advanced fuel design alternatives now available to utilities. The Fuel Cycle Scoping System (FCSS) was designed to fill this need. The FCSS is a personnel computer (PC) software package that is used to evaluate alternative strategies for supplying and using nuclear fuel in nuclear power reactors. The FCSS is an extremely flexible package that permits evaluation of in-core and out-of-core fuel management strategy options. For each strategy option, unit and reactor operating assumptions and assumptions for uranium supply, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and spent fuel disposal can be made

  18. Acknowledging patient heterogeneity in economic evaluation : a systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grutters, Janneke P C; Sculpher, Mark; Briggs, Andrew H; Severens, Johan L; Candel, Math J; Stahl, James E; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Boer, Albert; Ramaekers, Bram L T; Joore, Manuela A

    2013-02-01

    Patient heterogeneity is the part of variability that can be explained by certain patient characteristics (e.g. age, disease stage). Population reimbursement decisions that acknowledge patient heterogeneity could potentially save money and increase population health. To date, however, economic evaluations pay only limited attention to patient heterogeneity. The objective of the present paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of the current knowledge regarding patient heterogeneity within economic evaluation of healthcare programmes. A systematic literature review was performed to identify methodological papers on the topic of patient heterogeneity in economic evaluation. Data were obtained using a keyword search of the PubMed database and manual searches. Handbooks were also included. Relevant data were extracted regarding potential sources of patient heterogeneity, in which of the input parameters of an economic evaluation these occur, methods to acknowledge patient heterogeneity and specific concerns associated with this acknowledgement. A total of 20 articles and five handbooks were included. The relevant sources of patient heterogeneity (demographics, preferences and clinical characteristics) and the input parameters where they occurred (baseline risk, treatment effect, health state utility and resource utilization) were combined in a framework. Methods were derived for the design, analysis and presentation phases of an economic evaluation. Concerns related mainly to the danger of false-positive results and equity issues. By systematically reviewing current knowledge regarding patient heterogeneity within economic evaluations of healthcare programmes, we provide guidance for future economic evaluations. Guidance is provided on which sources of patient heterogeneity to consider, how to acknowledge them in economic evaluation and potential concerns. The improved acknowledgement of patient heterogeneity in future economic evaluations may well improve the

  19. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  20. A brief history of economic evaluation for human papillomavirus vaccination policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beutels, Philippe; Jit, Mark

    2010-09-01

    This commentary discusses key issues for health economic evaluation and modelling, applied to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine programs. We outline some of the specific features of HPV disease and vaccination, and associated policy questions in light of a literature search for economic evaluations on HPV vaccination. We observe that some policy questions could not be reliably addressed by many of the 43 published economic evaluations we found. Despite this, policy making on universal HPV vaccination followed shortly after vaccine licensure in many developed countries, so the role economic evaluation played in informing these decisions (pre-dating 2008) seems to have been fairly limited. For more recent decisions, however, economic evaluation is likely to have been used more widely and more intensively. We expect future cost-effectiveness analyses to be more instrumental in policy making regarding vaccines covering more HPV types, therapeutic HPV vaccines, and novel diagnostic tests for biomarkers of HPV infection and disease integrated with cervical screening programs.

  1. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  2. Assessing sufficient capability: A new approach to economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Paul Mark; Roberts, Tracy E; Barton, Pelham M; Coast, Joanna

    2015-08-01

    Amartya Sen's capability approach has been discussed widely in the health economics discipline. Although measures have been developed to assess capability in economic evaluation, there has been much less attention paid to the decision rules that might be applied alongside. Here, new methods, drawing on the multidimensional poverty and health economics literature, are developed for conducting economic evaluation within the capability approach and focusing on an objective of achieving "sufficient capability". This objective more closely reflects the concern with equity that pervades the capability approach and the method has the advantage of retaining the longitudinal aspect of estimating outcome that is associated with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whilst also drawing on notions of shortfall associated with assessments of poverty. Economic evaluation from this perspective is illustrated in an osteoarthritis patient group undergoing joint replacement, with capability wellbeing assessed using ICECAP-O. Recommendations for taking the sufficient capability approach forward are provided. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Economical evaluation of electricity generation considering externalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Kordy, M.N.; Badr, M.A.; Abed, K.A.; Ibrahim, Said M.A.

    2002-01-01

    The economics of renewable energy are the largest barrier to renewable penetration. Nevertheless, the strong desire to reduce environmental emissions is considered a great support for renewable energy sources. In this paper, a full analysis for the cost of the kWh of electricity generated from different systems actually used in Egypt is presented. Also renewable energy systems are proposed and their costs are analyzed. The analysis considers the external cost of emissions from different generating systems. A proposed large scale PV plant of 3.3 MW, and a wind farm 11.25 MW grid connected at different sites are investigated. A life cycle cost analysis for each system was performed using the present value criterion. The comparison results showed that wind energy generation has the lowest cost, followed by a combined cycle-natural gas fired system. A photovoltaic system still uses comparatively expensive technology for electricity generation; even when external costs are considered the capital cost of photovoltaic needs to be reduced by about 60% in order to be economically competitive. (Author)

  4. Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

  5. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

  6. Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model: A Web-based program designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of disease management programs in heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Shelby D; Neilson, Matthew P; Gardner, Matthew; Li, Yanhong; Briggs, Andrew H; Polsky, Daniel E; Graham, Felicia L; Bowers, Margaret T; Paul, Sara C; Granger, Bradi B; Schulman, Kevin A; Whellan, David J; Riegel, Barbara; Levy, Wayne C

    2015-11-01

    Heart failure disease management programs can influence medical resource use and quality-adjusted survival. Because projecting long-term costs and survival is challenging, a consistent and valid approach to extrapolating short-term outcomes would be valuable. We developed the Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model, a Web-based simulation tool designed to integrate data on demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics; use of evidence-based medications; and costs to generate predicted outcomes. Survival projections are based on a modified Seattle Heart Failure Model. Projections of resource use and quality of life are modeled using relationships with time-varying Seattle Heart Failure Model scores. The model can be used to evaluate parallel-group and single-cohort study designs and hypothetical programs. Simulations consist of 10,000 pairs of virtual cohorts used to generate estimates of resource use, costs, survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from user inputs. The model demonstrated acceptable internal and external validity in replicating resource use, costs, and survival estimates from 3 clinical trials. Simulations to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of heart failure disease management programs across 3 scenarios demonstrate how the model can be used to design a program in which short-term improvements in functioning and use of evidence-based treatments are sufficient to demonstrate good long-term value to the health care system. The Tools for Economic Analysis of Patient Management Interventions in Heart Failure Cost-Effectiveness Model provides researchers and providers with a tool for conducting long-term cost-effectiveness analyses of disease management programs in heart failure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. STATISTICAL EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC FACTORS ON SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE COUNTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Evseenko

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In theory made a case the necessity of modeling economic and demographic indicators. The influences of economic, social and environmental indicators on social and demographic factors of development country are researeched. Given statistical evaluation of relationships based on correlation and regression analysis method.

  8. Economic evaluation of laser enrichment plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arisawa, Takashi; Shiba, Koreyuki

    1983-08-01

    Operational characteristics of Laser Enrichment Plant are described based on the data available at present. And its economy is also discussed from the view point of investment and energy consumption. In the procedure of this estimation, the composition of the plant is firstly considered, secondly each component is designed, and thirdly the production cost of each component is estimated. Then the sensitivity of the component cost on the plant cost is analysed, which leads to the optimization of the product cost and the determination of the economic plant size, etc. The results shows that the power cost of the electric gun occupies the large majority of the total power cost, and that the capital cost of laser devices occupies most of the total capital cost. (author)

  9. Evaluating the economics of biodiesel in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulugetta, Yacob

    2009-01-01

    Road transport in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise in the coming years. Paradoxically, this expansion is occurring at a time when oil prices have reached new heights. Unstable oil prices do indeed increase the vulnerability of importers. However, it also presents them with a unique opportunity to explore promising technical options to help reduce their over-reliance on imported petroleum fuels. This paper takes a closer look at the potential for biodiesel, with an emphasis on fuels produced from oil palm, castor oil and jatropha in Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania, respectively. The paper provides an economic appraisal of biodiesels from these feedstocks, and sets the context for further discussions on biofuels in Africa. (author)

  10. Solar energy system economic evaluation for IBM System 3, Glendo, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    This analysis was based on the technical and economic models in f-chart design procedures with inputs based on the characteristics of the parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings, and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables was also investigated.

  11. An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...

  12. Economic evaluation of coal deposits. Ekonomicheskaya otsenka ugolinykh mestorozhdenii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raikhel' , B L

    1979-01-01

    A presentation is made of theoretical problems, methods, and criteria for the economic evaluation of coal deposits. An examination is made of factors which influence the formation of magnitudes that are utilized in economic evaluations as well as problems whose solution requires the consideration of the economic evaluation of coal deposits (evaluation of useful mineral losses, substantiation for the extraction of reserves under various conditions, sectioning off reserves to an operating mine, the completeness of reserve extraction, and technico-economic substantiation for quality). Extensive experience in planning is summarized and data are illustrated by examples. The book is intended for engineering-technical personnel of enterprises, organizations, planning, and scientific-research institutes of the coal industry as well as geological organizations. 29 references, 27 tables.

  13. DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.R.

    2005-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

  14. Realization of economic evaluation expert system for uranium mine project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Haifeng

    1993-01-01

    By studying the EVALUATOR, economic evaluation expert system of uranium mine project, the theoretical fundamentals of expert system, principle of inference mechanism, implementation of knowledge base, realization of explanation mechanism, acquisition of domain knowledge and representation of knowledge were described, especially the subjective Bayes approach for inexact reasoning problem used in EVALUATOR was discussed in detail

  15. The EMEFS model evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barchet, W.R.; Dennis, R.L.; Seilkop, S.K.; Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K.; Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.; Karamchandani, P.; Venkatram, A.; Fung, C.; Misra, P.K.; Hansen, D.A.; Chang, J.S.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs

  16. The EMEFS model evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barchet, W.R. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Dennis, R.L. (Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)); Seilkop, S.K. (Analytical Sciences, Inc., Durham, NC (United States)); Banic, C.M.; Davies, D.; Hoff, R.M.; Macdonald, A.M.; Mickle, R.E.; Padro, J.; Puckett, K. (Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview, ON (Canada)); Byun, D.; McHenry, J.N.

    1991-12-01

    The binational Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS) consisted of several coordinated data gathering and model evaluation activities. In the EMEFS, data were collected by five air and precipitation monitoring networks between June 1988 and June 1990. Model evaluation is continuing. This interim report summarizes the progress made in the evaluation of the Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM) and the Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM) through the December 1990 completion of a State of Science and Technology report on model evaluation for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP). Because various assessment applications of RADM had to be evaluated for NAPAP, the report emphasizes the RADM component of the evaluation. A protocol for the evaluation was developed by the model evaluation team and defined the observed and predicted values to be used and the methods by which the observed and predicted values were to be compared. Scatter plots and time series of predicted and observed values were used to present the comparisons graphically. Difference statistics and correlations were used to quantify model performance. 64 refs., 34 figs., 6 tabs.

  17. A technical and economic evaluation of wood conversion processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douglas, L J

    1990-08-08

    A technical and economic evaluation of the Iogen wood-to-ethanol bioconversion process was carried out using a computer simulation model based on an engineering analysis of the process. The model was used to run sensitivity analyses for the process and to estimate the parameters with significant economic impact and promise for future improvement to process economics. The most important parameters were then used in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the potential for future improvements and to assess the commercial potential of the process. Finally, the process was subjected to second-law analysis, in which its thermodynamic efficiency was assessed in terms of lost work potential. The Iogen process is a highly optimized process using state-of-the-art enzymatic hydrolysis with steam explosion pretreatment; lactose sugar from cheese whey is used as the carbon source for enzyme production. The base case design would use 1000 tonnes/d of aspen wood and would produce 91 Ml/y of ethanol. Assuming no value for byproducts, the break-even price for ethanol would be 45-70{cents}/l, depending on the financing method employed. If byproduct credit is added for lignin and molasses, the required ethanol selling price would drop to 30-50{cents}/l. Forecasts for future technology improvements show that it is possible to construct scenarios where the ethanol price could be as low as 10-20{cents}/l including byproduct credits. Potential improvements to the process include reduced enzyme production cost; xylose fermentation to ethanol; lower-cost feedstock; and substitution of wood sugars for lactose. 48 refs., 39 figs., 21 tabs.

  18. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  19. [Evaluation of economic forest ecosystem services in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Lu, Shao-Wei

    2009-02-01

    This paper quantitatively evaluated the economic forest ecosystem services in the provinces of China in 2003, based on the long-term and continuous observations of economic forest ecosystems in this country, the sixth China national forest resources inventory data, and the price parameter data from the authorities in the world, and by applying the law of market value, the method of substitution of the expenses, and the law of the shadow project. The results showed that in 2003, the total value of economic forest ecosystem services in China was 11763.39 x 10(8) yuan, and the total value of the products from economic forests occupied 19.3% of the total ecosystem services value, which indicated that the economic forests not only provided society direct products, but also exhibited enormous eco-economic value. The service value of the functions of economic forests was in the order of water storage > C fixation and O2 release > biodiversity conservation > erosion control > air quality purification > nutrient cycle. The spatial pattern of economic forest ecosystem services in the provinces of China had the same trend with the spatial distribution of water and heat resources and biodiversity. To understand the differences of economic forest ecosystem services in the provinces of China was of significance in alternating the irrational arrangement of our present forestry production, diminishing the abuses of forest management, and establishing high grade, high efficient, and modernized economic forests.

  20. Economic evaluation of the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.

    1985-01-01

    The economic impact of employing the highly ranked blankets in the Blanket Comparison and Selection Study (BCSS) was evaluated in the context of both a tokamak and a tandem mirror power reactor (TMR). The economic evaluation criterion was determined to be the cost of electricity. The influencing factors that were considered are the direct cost of the blankets and related systems; the annual cost of blanket replacement; and the performance of the blanket, heat transfer, and energy conversion systems. The technical and cost bases for comparison were those of the STARFIRE and Mirror Advanced Reactor Study conceptual design power plants. The economic evaluation results indicated that the nitrate-salt-cooled blanket concept is an economically attractive concept for either reactor type. The water-cooled, solid breeder blanket is attractive for the tokamak and somewhat less attractive for the TMR. The helium-cooled, liquidlithium breeder blanket is the least economically desirable of higher ranked concepts. The remaining self-cooled liquid-metal and the helium-cooled blanket concepts represent moderately attractive concepts from an economic standpoint. These results are not in concert with those found in the other BCSS evaluation areas (engineering feasibility, safety, and research and development (R and D) requirements). The blankets faring well economically had generally lower cost components, lower pumping power requirements, and good power production capability. On the other hand, helium- and lithium-cooled systems were preferred from the standpoints of safety, engineering feasibility, and R and D requirements

  1. Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

    1977-03-01

    The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

  3. Importance of Economic Evaluation in Health Care: An Indian Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Amit; Likhar, Nishkarsh; Alok, Utkarsh

    2016-05-01

    Health economic studies provide information to decision makers for efficient use of available resources for maximizing health benefits. Economic evaluation is one part of health economics, and it is a tool for comparing costs and consequences of different interventions. Health technology assessment is a technique for economic evaluation that is well adapted by developed countries. The traditional classification of economic evaluation includes cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis, and cost-benefit analysis. There has been uncertainty in the conduct of such economic evaluations in India, due to some hesitancy with respect to the adoption of their guidelines. The biggest challenge in this evolutionary method is lack of understanding of methods in current use by all those involved in the provision and purchasing of health care. In some countries, different methods of economic evaluation have been adopted for decision making, most commonly to address the question of public subsidies for the purchase of medicines. There is limited evidence on the impact of health insurance on the health and economic well-being of beneficiaries in developing countries. India is currently pursuing several strategies to improve health services for its population, including investing in government-provided services as well as purchasing services from public and private providers through various schemes. Prospects for future growth and development in this field are required in India because rapid health care inflation, increasing rates of chronic conditions, aging population, and increasing technology diffusion will require greater economic efficiency into health care systems. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF BEEKEEPING IN KARLOVACKA COUNTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janja Kezić

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Beekeeping in Croatia has a long tradition. There are favourable climate and vegetation conditions for development of beekeeping in Croatia. The number of registered beekeepers in Croatia is 3.404 with total of 313.978 beehives. Most of them are part–time beekeepers (53 %, hobby beekeepers comprise 37 % and professional beekeepers represent the smallest part with 11 % [3]. Beekeeping production is mainly organized on family farms [5]. Karlovačka county, in the cental part of Croatia, was chosen to analyse the economic attributes of beekeeping. The number of beekeepers in Karlovačka county in 2007. was 179 with total of 17.636 beehives [3]. Beekeepers were interviewed during the regular meeting of the Beekeepers Association. Forty–five beekeepers were interviewed which is a representative sample of beekeepers in Karlovacka county. Beekeepers were categorized as hobby beekeepers (<60, part–time (61–150 and professional beekeepers (>151 based on the number of beehives. There are 56 % of hobby beekeepers, 31 % of part–time beekeepers and 13 % are professional beekeepers. Fixed assets in beekeeping consist of equipment, beehives and vehicles used in beekeeping (trucks, trailers, personal car. Hobby beekeepers generate 5.031,55 € of total income per year with 52 average beehives per beekeeper. They achieve the highiest selling price an average of 3,20 € per kilo for their honey. Part–time beekeepers generate 9.875,74 € total income per year. The average number of beehives per part–time beekeeper is 110 and they achieve a selling price of 2,69 € per kilo. Professional beekeepers generate 26.681,36 € total income per year with an average number of 329 beehives per beekeeper. Their actual selling price, on average, is 2,07 €.

  5. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2006-10-01

    The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

  6. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  7. [Systematic economic assessment and quality evaluation for traditional Chinese medicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao; Guo, Li-ping; Shang, Hong-cai; Ren, Ming; Lei, Xiang

    2015-05-01

    To learn about the economic studies on traditional Chinese medicines in domestic literatures, in order to analyze the current economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines and explore the existing problems. Efforts were made to search CNKI, VIP, Wanfang database and CBM by computer and include all literatures about economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines published on professional domestic journals in the systematic assessment and quality evaluation. Finally, 50 articles were included in the study, and the systematic assessment and quality evaluation were made for them in terms of titles, year, authors' identity, expense source, disease type, study perspective, study design type, study target, study target source, time limit, cost calculation, effect indicator, analytical technique and sensitivity analysis. The finally quality score was 0.74, which is very low. The results of the study showed insufficient studies on economics of traditional Chinese medicines, short study duration and simple evaluation methods, which will be solved through unremitting efforts in the future.

  8. Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

    2013-01-01

    the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

  9. Economic evaluation of the integrated SMART desalination plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Young Dong; Lee, Man Kye; Yeo, Ji Won; Kim, Hee Chul; Chang, Moon Hee

    2001-04-01

    In this study, an economic evaluation methodology of the integrated SMART desalination plant was established and the economic evaluation of SMART was performed. The plant economics was evaluated with electricity generation costs calculated using approximate estimates of SMART cost data and the result was compared with the result calculated using the SMART design data and estimated bulk materials. In addition, a series of sensitivity studies on the power generation cost was performed for the main economic parameters of SMART Power credit method was used for the economic analysis of the integrated SMART desalination plant. Power credit method is a widely used economic analysis method for the cogeneration plant when the major portion of the energy is used for the electricity generation. In the case of using SMART fot power generation only, the result shows that the electricity generation cost of SMART is higher than that of the alternative power options. However, it can be competitive with the other power options in the limited cases, especially with the gas fired combined plant. In addition, an economic analysis of the integrated SMART desalination plant coupled with MED was performed. The calculated water production cost is in the range of 0.56 approx. 0.88($/m{sup 3}) for the plant availability of 80% or higher, which is close to the study results presented by the various other countries. This indicates that SMART can be considered as a competitive choice for desalination among various alternative energy sources.

  10. Economic evaluation of the integrated SMART desalination plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Young Dong; Lee, Man Kye; Yeo, Ji Won; Kim, Hee Chul; Chang, Moon Hee

    2001-04-01

    In this study, an economic evaluation methodology of the integrated SMART desalination plant was established and the economic evaluation of SMART was performed. The plant economics was evaluated with electricity generation costs calculated using approximate estimates of SMART cost data and the result was compared with the result calculated using the SMART design data and estimated bulk materials. In addition, a series of sensitivity studies on the power generation cost was performed for the main economic parameters of SMART Power credit method was used for the economic analysis of the integrated SMART desalination plant. Power credit method is a widely used economic analysis method for the cogeneration plant when the major portion of the energy is used for the electricity generation. In the case of using SMART fot power generation only, the result shows that the electricity generation cost of SMART is higher than that of the alternative power options. However, it can be competitive with the other power options in the limited cases, especially with the gas fired combined plant. In addition, an economic analysis of the integrated SMART desalination plant coupled with MED was performed. The calculated water production cost is in the range of 0.56 approx. 0.88($/m 3 ) for the plant availability of 80% or higher, which is close to the study results presented by the various other countries. This indicates that SMART can be considered as a competitive choice for desalination among various alternative energy sources

  11. Scale interactions in economics: application to the evaluation of the economic damages of climatic change and of extreme events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, S.

    2005-06-01

    Growth models, which neglect economic disequilibria, considered as temporary, are in general used to evaluate the damaging effects generated by climatic change. This work shows, through a series of modeling experiences, the importance of disequilibria and of endogenous variability of economy in the evaluation of damages due to extreme events and climatic change. It demonstrates the impossibility to separate the evaluation of damages from the representation of growth and of economic dynamics: the comfort losses will depend on both the nature and intensity of impacts and on the dynamics and situation of the economy to which they will apply. Thus, the uncertainties about the damaging effects of future climatic changes come from both scientific uncertainties and from uncertainties about the future organization of our economies. (J.S.)

  12. Ecological and economic evaluation of biogas from intercrops

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niemetz, Nora; Kettl, Karl-Heinz [Graz Univ. of Technology (Austria). Inst. for Process and Particle Engineering

    2012-12-01

    Biogas made from main crops (e.g., corn) is commonly used for producing electricity and heat. Nevertheless, the production of energy from monocultures is highly unsustainable and not truly renewable. Since neither monocultures nor food competition are desirable, intercrops can be used to increase the yield per hectare instead of leaving agricultural fields unplanted for soil regeneration. The extra biomass can be used for biogas production. In a case study, the economic as well as the ecological feasibility of biogas production using intercrops, cattle manure, grass and corn silage as feedstocks for fermenters was analyzed. The set-up for the case study included different feedstock combinations as well as spatial distributions of substrate supply and heat demand for modeling and optimization. Using the process network synthesis, an optimum structure was generated representing the most economical technology constellation which included transport of substrates, heat and biogas (when applicable). The ecological evaluation was carried out by using the sustainable process index method. The application of both methodologies to different scenarios allowed a constellation to be found which is economically feasible while entailing low ecological pressure. It is demonstrated that the production of intercrops for producing biogas has so far not been regarded as a viable option by the farmers due to a variety of barriers. Sensitization is needed to emphasize that planting intercrops holds many advantages like positive effects on soil regeneration and raised nitrogen fixation, as well as increased biomass output per hectare and, last but not least, it allows the production of energy without conflicts between food and energy production. (orig.)

  13. Improving early cycle economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steuten, Lotte M G; Ramsey, Scott D

    2014-08-01

    The rapidly increasing range and expense of new diagnostics, compels consideration of a different, more proactive approach to health economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies. Early cycle economic evaluation is a decision analytic approach to evaluate technologies in development so as to increase the return on investment as well as patient and societal impact. This paper describes examples of 'early cycle economic evaluations' as applied to diagnostic technologies and highlights challenges in its real-time application. It shows that especially in the field of diagnostics, with rapid technological developments and a changing regulatory climate, early cycle economic evaluation can have a guiding role to improve the efficiency of the diagnostics innovation process. In the next five years the attention will move beyond the methodological and analytic challenges of early cycle economic evaluation towards the challenge of effectively applying it to improve diagnostic research and development and patient value. Future work in this area should therefore be 'strong on principles and soft on metrics', that is, the metrics that resonate most clearly with the various decision makers in this field.

  14. Evaluating the quality and use of economic data in decisions about essential medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moucheraud, Corrina; Wirtz, Veronika J; Reich, Michael R

    2015-10-01

    To evaluate the quality of economic data provided in applications to the World Health Organization (WHO) Model List of Essential Medicines and to evaluate the role of these data in decision-making by the expert committee that considers the applications. We analysed applications submitted to the WHO Expert Committee on the Selection and Use of Essential Medicines between 2002 and 2013. The completeness of data on the price and cost-effectiveness of medicines was extracted from application documents and coded using a four-point scale. We recorded whether or not the expert committee discussed economic information and the outcomes of each application. Associations between the completeness of economic data and application outcomes were assessed using χ 2 tests. The expert committee received 134 applications. Only eight applications (6%) included complete price data and economic evaluation data. Many applicants omitted or misinterpreted the economic evaluation section of the application form. Despite the lack of economic data, all applications were reviewed by the committee. There was no significant association between the completeness of economic information and application outcomes. The expert committee tried to address information gaps in applications by further review and analysis of data related to the application. The World Health Organization should revise the instructions to applicants on economic data requirements; develop new mechanisms to assist applicants in completing the application process; and define methods for the use of economic data in decision-making.

  15. Bio-economic evaluation of implementing trawl fishing gear with different selectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grønbæk Kronbak, Lone; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Jørgensen, Ole A.

    2009-01-01

    The paper develops a biological-economic evaluation tool to analyse the consequences for trawl fishers of implementing more selective fishing technologies. This is done by merging a dynamic biological population model and an economic cost-benefit evaluation framework to describe the consequences...... with a baseline. The results from the evaluation are indicators for the consequences on ecological and economic levels. The results show that implementation of different selective fishing gear in the Kattegat and Skagerrak mixed trawl fisheries generally implies a trade off over time between rebuilding the stocks...... for the fish stocks, fishermen and society. The bio-economic evaluation is applied to the case of the Danish trawl fishery in Kattegat and Skagerrak, which experiences a high level of discards and byratches of several species. Four different kinds of selectivity scenarios are evaluated in comparison...

  16. Bio-economic evaluation of implementing trawl fishing gear with different selectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kronbak, Lone Grønbæk; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Jørgensen, Ole A.

    2009-01-01

    The paper develops a biological-economic evaluation tool to analyse the consequences for trawl fishers of implementing more selective fishing technologies. This is done by merging a dynamic biological population model and an economic cost-benefit evaluation framework to describe the consequences...... with a baseline. The results from the evaluation are indicators for the consequences on ecological and economic levels. The results show that implementation of different selective fishing gear in the Kattegat and Skagerrak mixed trawl fisheries generally implies a trade off over time between rebuilding the stocks...... for the fish stocks, fishermen and society. The bio-economic evaluation is applied to the case of the Danish trawl fishery in Kattegat and Skagerrak, which experiences a high level of discards and bycatches of several species. Four different kinds of selectivity scenarios are evaluated in comparison...

  17. Desalination Economic Evaluation Program (DEEP-3.0). User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    DEEP is a Desalination Economic Evaluation Program developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and made freely available for download, under a license agreement (www.iaea.org/nucleardesalination). The program is based on linked Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and can be useful for evaluating desalination strategies by calculating estimates of technical performance and costs for various alternative energy and desalination technology configurations. Desalination technology options modelled, include multi-stage flashing (MSF), multi-effect distillation (MED), reverse osmosis (RO) and hybrid options (RO-MSF, RO-MED) while energy source options include nuclear, fossil, renewables and grid electricity (stand-alone RO). Version 3 of DEEP (DEEP 3.0) features important changes from previous versions, including upgrades in thermal and membrane performance and costing models, the coupling configuration matrix and the user interface. Changes in the thermal performance model include a revision of the gain output ratio (GOR) calculation and its generalization to include thermal vapour compression effects. Since energy costs continue to represent an important fraction of seawater desalination costs, the lost shaft work model has been generalized to properly account for both backpressure and extraction systems. For RO systems, changes include improved modelling of system recovery, feed pressure and permeate salinity, taking into account temperature, feed salinity and fouling correction factors. The upgrade to the coupling technology configuration matrix includes a re-categorization of the energy sources to follow turbine design (steam vs. gas) and cogeneration features (dual-purpose vs. heat-only). In addition, cost data has also been updated to reflect current practice and the user interface has been refurbished and made user-friendlier

  18. Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

    Science.gov (United States)

    Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

  19. Evaluating the economic impact of casino liberalization in Macao.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Victor; Hung, Eva P W

    2012-09-01

    This paper aims to evaluate the economic impact after Macao decided to liberalize its gaming industry. By analysing both objective data of official statistics and subjective data of the perceptions of quality of life, we painted a picture of mixed blessings. Although objective indicators showed strong economic growth in terms of a rise in per capita GDP and public revenue as well as a decline in unemployment rate, subjective indicators revealed that local residents were less than optimistic about their own employment outlook and did not perceive any improvement in their overall economic situation. While casino liberalization brought forth tremendous economic gain, the general population did not subjectively feel the benefits. An integrative analysis of both objective and subjective indicators would therefore allow us to look closer how residents' lives in the micro-level could have been adversely affected by the prosperous economic outlook at the macro-level.

  20. A Survey on Economic-driven Evaluations of Information Technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutschler, B.B.; Zarvic, N.; Reichert, M.U.

    2007-01-01

    The economic-driven evaluation of information technology (IT) has become an important instrument in the management of IT projects. Numerous approaches have been developed to quantify the costs of an IT investment and its assumed profit, to evaluate its impact on business process performance, and to

  1. Economic Evaluation pf Antibacterial Usage in Ear, Nose and Throat ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: To carry out economic evaluation of antibacterial usage for Ear, Nose and Throat infections in a tertiary health care facility in Nigeria. Methods: Antibacterial utilisation evaluation was carried out retrospectively over one year period by reviewing 122 case notes containing 182 prescriptions of patient with Ear Nose ...

  2. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  3. Introducing Program Evaluation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raluca GÂRBOAN

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Programs and project evaluation models can be extremely useful in project planning and management. The aim is to set the right questions as soon as possible in order to see in time and deal with the unwanted program effects, as well as to encourage the positive elements of the project impact. In short, different evaluation models are used in order to minimize losses and maximize the benefits of the interventions upon small or large social groups. This article introduces some of the most recently used evaluation models.

  4. Feasibility Study on Nuclear Propulsion Ship according to Economic Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gil, Youngmi; Yoo, Seongjin; Oh, June; Byun, Yoonchul; Woo, Ilguk [Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering Co., Ltd, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jiho; Choi, Suhn [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    The use of nuclear ships has been extending to the icebreaker, the deep-water exploration ship, and the floating nuclear power plant. Prior to developing the new ship, the relevant regulations need to be considered. In this study, we reviewed the nuclear ship-related regulations. In addition, economic value is one of the most important factors which should be considered in the pre-design phase. To evaluate the economics of the nuclear ship, we calculated Capital Expenditure (abbreviated as CAPEX) and Operation Expenditure (abbreviated as OPEX) for various types of ships. We reviewed the nuclear ship-related regulations and evaluated the economics of the nuclear ship compared to the diesel ship. The calculation result shows that economic feasibility of the nuclear ship depends on the oil price as well as the cost of the nuclear reactor.

  5. Economic evaluation of integrated new technologies for health and social care: Suggestions for policy makers, users and evaluators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildman, John; McMeekin, Peter; Grieve, Eleanor; Briggs, Andrew

    2016-11-01

    With an ageing population there is a move towards the use of assisted living technologies (ALTs) to provide social care and health care services, and to improve service processes. These technologies are at the forefront of the integration of health and social care. However, economic evaluations of ALTs, and indeed economic evaluations of any interventions providing both health benefits and benefits beyond health are complex. This paper considers the challenges faced by evaluators and presents a method of economic evaluation for use with interventions where traditional methods may not be suitable for informing funders and decision makers. We propose a method, combining economic evaluation techniques, that can accommodate health outcomes and outcomes beyond health through the use of a common numeraire. Such economic evaluations can benefit both the public and private sector, firstly by ensuring the efficient allocation of resources. And secondly, by providing information for individuals who, in the market for ALTs, face consumption decisions that are infrequent and for which there may be no other sources of information. We consider these issues in the welfarist, extra-welfarist and capabilities frameworks, which we link to attributes in an individual production model. This approach allows for the valuation of the health component of any such intervention and the valuation of key social care attributes and processes. Finally, we present a set of considerations for evaluators highlighting the key issues that need to be considered in this type of economic evaluation. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The economic evaluation of pharmacotherapies for Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, D; Barbeau, M; Guttman, M; Baladi, J-F

    2003-06-01

    As well as the significant clinical effects of Parkinson's disease (PD), the disease places a high economic burden on society. Given the scarcity of health care resources, it is becoming increasingly necessary to demonstrate that new therapies for PD provide value for money in comparison with other potential interventions. This paper outlines the basic techniques of cost-effectiveness analysis and its application to PD. These techniques are illustrated by a recent economic evaluation of entacapone for use in Canada.

  7. The economics of Language Policy: An Introduction to Evaluation Work

    OpenAIRE

    Grin, François; Vaillancourt, François

    2015-01-01

    This chapter presents some of the main empirical methods used by economists who since the 1970s have contributed to the elaboration of language policies. This specific focus is the result of the theme of this book; it is more restrictive than discussions on the economics of language of the economics of language policy evaluation. Furthermore, this leads us to emphasize practice-oriented research using quantitative data, in which economists have addressed questions such as: "How much does it c...

  8. Economic evaluation of municipal solid waste recycling in Yazd:

    OpenAIRE

    Eslami H; Mokhtari M; Eslami Dost Z; Barzegar Khanghah MR; Ranjbar Ezzatabadi M

    2017-01-01

    Background and aims: In every urban waste management plan, recycling and reuse is considered as an economic pattern. This study aimed to economic evaluation of municipal solid waste recycling in Yazd by cost-benefit analysis in 2015. Methods: This research is a descriptive–analytic study which in the data about quality and quantity of municipal solid waste in Yazd city were collected through the sampling and physical analysis and the data about total income and costs from the implementatio...

  9. Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

    2013-11-01

    The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

  10. An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Bryan

    1976-01-01

    Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

  11. Economic Evaluation of Pediatric Telemedicine Consultations to Rural Emergency Departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Nikki H; Dharmar, Madan; Yoo, Byung-Kwang; Leigh, J Paul; Kuppermann, Nathan; Romano, Patrick S; Nesbitt, Thomas S; Marcin, James P

    2015-08-01

    Comprehensive economic evaluations have not been conducted on telemedicine consultations to children in rural emergency departments (EDs). We conducted an economic evaluation to estimate the cost, effectiveness, and return on investment (ROI) of telemedicine consultations provided to health care providers of acutely ill and injured children in rural EDs compared with telephone consultations from a health care payer prospective. We built a decision model with parameters from primary programmatic data, national data, and the literature. We performed a base-case cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), a probabilistic CEA with Monte Carlo simulation, and ROI estimation when CEA suggested cost-saving. The CEA was based on program effectiveness, derived from transfer decisions following telemedicine and telephone consultations. The average cost for a telemedicine consultation was $3641 per child/ED/year in 2013 US dollars. Telemedicine consultations resulted in 31% fewer patient transfers compared with telephone consultations and a cost reduction of $4662 per child/ED/year. Our probabilistic CEA demonstrated telemedicine consultations were less costly than telephone consultations in 57% of simulation iterations. The ROI was calculated to be 1.28 ($4662/$3641) from the base-case analysis and estimated to be 1.96 from the probabilistic analysis, suggesting a $1.96 return for each dollar invested in telemedicine. Treating 10 acutely ill and injured children at each rural ED with telemedicine resulted in an annual cost-savings of $46,620 per ED. Telephone and telemedicine consultations were not randomly assigned, potentially resulting in biased results. From a health care payer perspective, telemedicine consultations to health care providers of acutely ill and injured children presenting to rural EDs are cost-saving (base-case and more than half of Monte Carlo simulation iterations) or cost-effective compared with telephone consultations. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Smoking, health-related quality of life and economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Nicolás, Ángel; Trapero-Bertran, Marta; Muñoz, Celia

    2018-06-01

    The economic evaluation of tobacco control policies requires the adoption of assumptions about the impact of changes in smoking status on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Estimates for such impacts are necessary for different populations. This paper aims to test whether smoking status has an independent effect on HRQoL over and above the effect derived from the increased likelihood of suffering a tobacco related disease, and to calculate utility values for the Spanish population. Using data from the Spanish Encuesta Nacional de Salud of 2011-12, we estimate statistical models for HRQoL as measured by the EQ-5D-5L instrument as a function of smoking status. We include a comprehensive set of controls for biological, clinical, lifestyle and socioeconomic characteristics. Smoking status has an independent, statistically significant effect on HRQoL. However, the size of the effect is small. The typical smoking related diseases, such as lung cancer, are associated with a reduction in HRQoL about 5 times larger than the difference between current smokers and never smokers. Attributing substantive HRQoL gains to quitting smoking as well as accounting for the concomitant HRQoL gain derived from a smaller likelihood of contracting tobacco related diseases might lead to an overestimation of the benefits of tobacco control policies. Nonetheless, the relatively large drops in HRQoL associated with being diagnosed with diseases that might be causally linked to tobacco suggest that such diseases should not be omitted from the economic evaluations of tobacco control policies.

  13. Costs and benefits of controlling quarantine diseases : a bio-economic modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukers, M.L.H.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Werf, van der W.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a bio-economic model to quantify the costs and benefits of controlling plant quarantine diseases. The model integrates the epidemiology and economic consequences of a quarantine disease. It allows for ex ante evaluation of control scenarios for their cost-effectiveness, taking

  14. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  15. Techno-economic evaluation of various electric energy supply for rural areas Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagdev, A.J.; Samo, S.R.

    1994-01-01

    A diagnostic study was carried out to evaluate the techno-economic viability of various electric supply sources for electrification of rural areas in Pakistan in present socio-economic conditions. The important influencing factors considered were: social needs, electric requirement and availability of energy resources. The electric requirements of model rural village were established at 20431 kw h per year. Prudent evaluations reveal that hydroelectric, photovoltaic and diesel systems are better options than an electric grid extension of more than 2 km. In order to become an economically meritorious energy source, photovoltaic system should attain cost level Rs. 100 per watt-peak of installed system. (author)

  16. [Principles of health economic evaluation for use by caregivers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derumeaux-Burel, Hélène; Derancourt, Christian; Rambhojan, Christine; Branchard, Olivier; Hayes, Nathalie; Bénard, Antoine

    2017-01-01

    The aim of health economic evaluation is to maximize health gains from limited resources. By definition, health economic evaluation is comparative, based on average costs and outcomes of compared interventions. Incremental costs and outcomes are used to calculate the cost-effectiveness ratio, which represents the average incremental cost per gained unit of effectiveness (i.e.: a year of life) with the evaluated intervention compared to the reference. The health economic rationale applies to all health domains. We cannot spend collective resources (health insurance) without asking ourselves about their potential alternative uses. This reasoning is useful to caregivers for understanding resources allocation decisions and healthcare recommandations. Caregivers should grab this field of expertise because they are central in this strategic reflection for defining the future French healthcare landscape. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Economic evaluation of private power production under uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiguo Xing; Wu, F.F. [University of Hong Kong (China). Centre for Electrical Energy Systems

    2003-02-01

    Private power production is becoming an increasingly important source of electricity generation. In developing countries, build-operate-transfer (BOT) arrangement has emerged as a dominant form of private investment. Pricing private power production at its avoided cost is the breakeven point for the utility in economic evaluation, and uncertainties must be taken into account. In this paper, an approach of calculating the breakeven cost to the utility of a BOT power plant whose contract lasts for 10-25 years is proposed. The proposed approach requires the computation of production costs from long-term generation expansion planning (GEP) under future uncertainties. To facilitate the inclusion of constraints introduced by BOT plants in GEP and uncertainties, a genetic algorithm method is utilized in GEP. The breakeven cost is a useful measure in the economic evaluation of BOT power plants. An example is presented to illustrate the economic evaluation of BOT plants using the concept of breakeven cost.(author)

  18. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  19. Data modeling and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauge, E.; Hilaire, S.

    2006-01-01

    This lecture is devoted to the nuclear data evaluation process, during which the current knowledge (experimental or theoretical) of nuclear reactions is condensed and synthesised into a computer file (the evaluated data file) that application codes can process and use for simulation calculations. After an overview of the content of evaluated nuclear data files, we describe the different methods used for evaluating nuclear data. We specifically focus on the model based approach which we use to evaluate data in the continuum region. A few examples, coming from the day to day practice of data evaluation will illustrate this lecture. Finally, we will discuss the most likely perspectives for improvement of the evaluation process in the next decade. (author)

  20. Genetic testing in the European Union: does economic evaluation matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoñanzas, Fernando; Rodríguez-Ibeas, R; Hutter, M F; Lorente, R; Juárez, C; Pinillos, M

    2012-10-01

    We review the published economic evaluation studies applied to genetic technologies in the EU to know the main diseases addressed by these studies, the ways the studies were conducted and to assess the efficiency of these new technologies. The final aim of this review was to understand the possibilities of the economic evaluations performed up to date as a tool to contribute to decision making in this area. We have reviewed a set of articles found in several databases until March 2010. Literature searches were made in the following databases: PubMed; Euronheed; Centre for Reviews and Dissemination of the University of York-Health Technology Assessment, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, NHS Economic Evaluation Database; and Scopus. The algorithm was "(screening or diagnosis) and genetic and (cost or economic) and (country EU27)". We included studies if they met the following criteria: (1) a genetic technology was analysed; (2) human DNA must be tested for; (3) the analysis was a real economic evaluation or a cost study, and (4) the articles had to be related to any EU Member State. We initially found 3,559 papers on genetic testing but only 92 articles of economic analysis referred to a wide range of genetic diseases matched the inclusion criteria. The most studied diseases were as follows: cystic fibrosis (12), breast and ovarian cancer (8), hereditary hemochromatosis (6), Down's syndrome (7), colorectal cancer (5), familial hypercholesterolaemia (5), prostate cancer (4), and thrombophilia (4). Genetic tests were mostly used for screening purposes, and cost-effectiveness analysis is the most common type of economic study. The analysed gene technologies are deemed to be efficient for some specific population groups and screening algorithms according to the values of their cost-effectiveness ratios that were below the commonly accepted threshold of 30,000€. Economic evaluation of genetic technologies matters but the number of published studies is still

  1. Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

    2014-05-01

    The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

  2. Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North Sea saithe fishery as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, S.L.; Bartelings, H.; Hamon, K.G.; Kempf, A.J.; Doring, R.; Temming, A.

    2014-01-01

    There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries

  3. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  4. Productivity costs in economic evaluations: past, present, future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krol, Marieke; Brouwer, Werner; Rutten, Frans

    2013-07-01

    Productivity costs occur when the productivity of individuals is affected by illness, treatment, disability or premature death. The objective of this paper was to review past and current developments related to the inclusion, identification, measurement and valuation of productivity costs in economic evaluations. The main debates in the theory and practice of economic evaluations of health technologies described in this review have centred on the questions of whether and how to include productivity costs, especially productivity costs related to paid work. The past few decades have seen important progress in this area. There are important sources of productivity costs other than absenteeism (e.g. presenteeism and multiplier effects in co-workers), but their exact influence on costs remains unclear. Different measurement instruments have been developed over the years, but which instrument provides the most accurate estimates has not been established. Several valuation approaches have been proposed. While empirical research suggests that productivity costs are best included in the cost side of the cost-effectiveness ratio, the jury is still out regarding whether the human capital approach or the friction cost approach is the most appropriate valuation method to do so. Despite the progress and the substantial amount of scientific research, a consensus has not been reached on either the inclusion of productivity costs in economic evaluations or the methods used to produce productivity cost estimates. Such a lack of consensus has likely contributed to ignoring productivity costs in actual economic evaluations and is reflected in variations in national health economic guidelines. Further research is needed to lessen the controversy regarding the estimation of health-related productivity costs. More standardization would increase the comparability and credibility of economic evaluations taking a societal perspective.

  5. CITRICULTURE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DANILO SIMÕES

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The citriculture consists in several environmental risks, as weather changes and pests, and also consists in considerable financial risk, mainly due to the period ofreturn on the initial investment. This study was motivated by the need to assess the risks of a business activity such as citriculture. Our objective was to build a stochastic simulation model to achieve the economic and financial analysis of an orange producer in the Midwest region of the state of Sao Paulo, under conditions of uncertainty. The parameters used were the Net Present Value (NPV, the Modified Internal Rate of Return(MIRR, and the Discounted Payback. To evaluate the risk conditions we built a probabilistic model of pseudorandom numbers generated with Monte Carlo method. The results showed that the activity analyzed provides a risk of 42.8% to reach a NPV negative; however, the yield assessed by MIRR was 7.7%, higher than the yield from the reapplication of the positive cash flows. The financial investment pays itself after the fourteenth year of activity.

  6. Study on Economic Evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant's SSC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Eun-Sub; Park, Young-Sheop

    2007-01-01

    As the operating year of nuclear power plant increases, more improvement plans on degraded SSCs(Structure, System, and Component) are suggested. Because of safety concern, the maintenance and replacing cost of nuclear power plant's SSCs are usually high and it can be a burden to financial control. To satisfy both safety and economic problems, systematic and efficient plans are needed. For this reason, KHNP is now developing the LTAM (Long Term Asset Management) program to establish the long term improvement plans for SSCs, from safety and economic point of views. Actually LTAM program is one of the steps of INPO ER (Equipment Reliability) process. In USA, EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute) has developed the LCM (Life Cycle Management) program and it was applied to some nuclear power plants. In this program, several alternatives are candidated. Then, economic evaluation is applied to each alternative. The result of economic evaluation affects to the final alternative decision. In this study, EPRI's economic evaluation method is reviewed

  7. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  8. Privatization: The Use of Risk, Economic and Finance Models to Ensure Its Success

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaksch, John A.; Weimar, Mark R.; Young, Joan K.; Taylor, William J.; Furlong, Peter T.; Feldman, Roger D.; Diprinzio, Ray

    2001-01-01

    The article describes the use of risk, economic and financial models as they were used to help DOE in their decision-making processes on TWRS Privatization. The article describes how the models were used to allocate risk between the contractor and DOE, evaluate whether DOE should accept certain risk allocations, how the economic and financial models were used to evaluate whether the government was receiving the best bid price and whether any money was being saved by using privatization, and evaluated alternative financing schemes. The paper also describes how the financial model was used to evaluate and negotiate the pricing structure which became a part of the contract.

  9. Comparative economic evaluation of data from the ACRIN National CT Colonography Trial with three cancer intervention and surveillance modeling network microsimulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanness, David J; Knudsen, Amy B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Rutter, Carolyn M; Gareen, Ilana F; Herman, Benjamin A; Kuntz, Karen M; Zauber, Ann G; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein; Feuer, Eric J; Chen, Mei-Hsiu; Johnson, C Daniel

    2011-11-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of computed tomographic (CT) colonography for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in average-risk asymptomatic subjects in the United States aged 50 years. Enrollees in the American College of Radiology Imaging Network National CT Colonography Trial provided informed consent, and approval was obtained from the institutional review board at each site. CT colonography performance estimates from the trial were incorporated into three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network CRC microsimulations. Simulated survival and lifetime costs for screening 50-year-old subjects in the United States with CT colonography every 5 or 10 years were compared with those for guideline-concordant screening with colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy plus either sensitive unrehydrated fecal occult blood testing (FOBT) or fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), and no screening. Perfect and reduced screening adherence scenarios were considered. Incremental cost-effectiveness and net health benefits were estimated from the U.S. health care sector perspective, assuming a 3% discount rate. CT colonography at 5- and 10-year screening intervals was more costly and less effective than FOBT plus flexible sigmoidoscopy in all three models in both 100% and 50% adherence scenarios. Colonoscopy also was more costly and less effective than FOBT plus flexible sigmoidoscopy, except in the CRC-SPIN model assuming 100% adherence (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $26,300 per life-year gained). CT colonography at 5- and 10-year screening intervals and colonoscopy were net beneficial compared with no screening in all model scenarios. The 5-year screening interval was net beneficial over the 10-year interval except in the MISCAN model when assuming 100% adherence and willingness to pay $50,000 per life-year gained. All three models predict CT colonography to be more costly and less effective than non-CT colonographic screening but net beneficial compared with no

  10. Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeree, Ron; Villeneuve, Julie; Goeree, Jeff; Penrod, John R; Orsini, Lucinda; Tahami Monfared, Amir Abbas

    2016-06-01

    Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches. Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs). Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained). Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost

  11. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  12. Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

  13. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  14. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-07

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  15. The added value of thorough economic evaluation of telemedicine networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Goff-Pronost, Myriam; Sicotte, Claude

    2010-02-01

    This paper proposes a thorough framework for the economic evaluation of telemedicine networks. A standard cost analysis methodology was used as the initial base, similar to the evaluation method currently being applied to telemedicine, and to which we suggest adding subsequent stages that enhance the scope and sophistication of the analytical methodology. We completed the methodology with a longitudinal and stakeholder analysis, followed by the calculation of a break-even threshold, a calculation of the economic outcome based on net present value (NPV), an estimate of the social gain through external effects, and an assessment of the probability of social benefits. In order to illustrate the advantages, constraints and limitations of the proposed framework, we tested it in a paediatric cardiology tele-expertise network. The results demonstrate that the project threshold was not reached after the 4 years of the study. Also, the calculation of the project's NPV remained negative. However, the additional analytical steps of the proposed framework allowed us to highlight alternatives that can make this service economically viable. These included: use over an extended period of time, extending the network to other telemedicine specialties, or including it in the services offered by other community hospitals. In sum, the results presented here demonstrate the usefulness of an economic evaluation framework as a way of offering decision makers the tools they need to make comprehensive evaluations of telemedicine networks.

  16. Economic evaluation of influenza vaccination : Assessment for The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Bos, Jasper M.; Van Gennep, Mark; Jager, Johannes C.; Baltussen, Rob; Sprenger, Marc J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the costs associated with influenza and the cost effectiveness (net costs per life-year gained) of influenza vaccination in The Netherlands. Design and setting: The economic evaluation comprised a cost-of-illness assessment and a

  17. Performance, Carcass Evaluation And Economics Of Production Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An eight-weeks feeding trial involving 162,8-week old goldline cockerel birds was carried out in a completely randomized design to evaluate the performance, carcass characteristics and economics of production of cockerels fed whole cassava plant meal (WCPM). Diet 1 was maize based and served as the control, diet 2 ...

  18. Economic evaluation of soil fertility management in groundnut fields ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper provides the economic evaluation of soil fertility replenishing technologies (use of inorganic fertilizers, organic manure, and rhizobium inoculant) that were tested and recommended. Data on groundnut technologies used, yields, resource availability and use, and farmers' characteristics were collected through ...

  19. Writing, Evaluating and Assessing Data Response Items in Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman-Dickenson, D. I.

    1989-01-01

    Describes some of the problems in writing data response items in economics for use by A Level and General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) students. Examines the experience of two series of workshops on writing items, evaluating them and assessing responses from schools. Offers suggestions for producing packages of data response items as…

  20. Feasibility and economic evaluation of low-cost evaporative cooling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Feasibility and economic evaluation of low-cost evaporative cooling system in fruit and vegetables storage. ... on fruit and vegetables quality during harvesting, transportation, storage and marketing. ... The coolers were found to be effective in maintaining micro-environmental conditions for ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  1. nutritional and economic evaluation of Moringa oleifera leaf meal as ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nutritional and economic evaluation of Moringa oleifera leaf meal as a dietary supplement in West African Dwarf goats. ... South African Journal of Animal Science ... Moringa oleifera leaves may have the potential to enhance nutritional status, growth performance, and health of ruminant animals when used as part of their ...

  2. Design and techno economic evaluation of biomass gasifier for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper addresses the design, performance and economic evaluation of biomass based open core downdraft gasifier for industrial process heat application. The gasifier is having feed rate as 90 kg h-1 and producing about 850 MJ h-1 of heat. The gasifier has been installed in M/S Phosphate India Pvt. Limited, Udaipur ...

  3. Disease specific methods for economic evaluations of breast cancer therapies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederix, G.W.J.

    2013-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are widely considered to be helpful tools for making informative decisions in a resource constrained environment. Since the introduction of economic evaluations in reimbursement submissions in Australia as a formal requirement in 1993, CEAs have become widespread

  4. Evaluation of Demographic Variables and Socio-economic Status ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study evaluated the demographic variables and socio-economic status on the prevalence of health hazards amongst residents of Akure North Local Government, Ondo State, Nigeria. The study was a descriptive research design of the survey type. The population for this study was estimated to be 131,587 residents.

  5. A framework for including family health spillovers in economic evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Al-Janabi (Hareth); N.J.A. van Exel (Job); W.B.F. Brouwer (Werner); J. Coast (Joanna)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHealth care interventions may affect the health of patients' family networks. It has been suggested that these health spillovers? should be included in economic evaluation, but there is not a systematic method for doing this. In this article, we develop a framework for including health

  6. An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

  7. Training effectiveness evaluation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penrose, J.B.

    1993-01-01

    NAESCO's Training Effectiveness Evaluation Model (TEEM) integrates existing evaluation procedures with new procedures. The new procedures are designed to measure training impact on organizational productivity. TEEM seeks to enhance organizational productivity through proactive training focused on operation results. These results can be identified and measured by establishing and tracking performance indicators. Relating training to organizational productivity is not easy. TEEM is a team process. It offers strategies to assess more effectively organizational costs and benefits of training. TEEM is one organization's attempt to refine, manage and extend its training evaluation program

  8. Economic evaluation of bids for nuclear power plants. 1999 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The introduction of a nuclear power plant (NPP) in a country is a major undertaking for all entities involved. The necessary planning work and co-ordination of the different fields of interest, from the point of view of governments, authorities, industries, universities and of the general public, must be done on a long term basis. This IAEA report may help support the work of the utility in the bidding process, especially in the economic bid evaluation. The different methods, aspects and parameters described should be regarded as a guide. The report's target criterion of lowest levelised discounted electricity generation costs (LDEGC) is a very useful and practical way of ranking bids. In view of the huge investment needed, the owner's country must be fully committed to a nuclear programme. A nuclear programme also requires a guarantee of long term financing, which implies the provision of local and foreign contributions. The necessary staff for all of the various areas of a nuclear programme must be recruited and trained. Within the planning phase, the bid invitation specification (BIS) has to be prepared and sent out in order to receive bids for the scope of supply and services desired by the owner. The evaluation of the bids received from the suppliers in response to the BIS is a huge and long-term task. The evaluation process should lead to the selection of the best bidder and at least to the final decision on the partners constructing the NPP. The responsibility for the entire bidding process lies with the plant owner. For technology transfer, two requirements need to be satisfied: the owner needs a well established and experienced engineering capability, and the supplier must be ready to transfer the agreed technology in such a way as to support the project goals. During the bid evaluation process, all aspects of the technical, financial and contractual approaches must be considered. Nowadays, political, socioeconomic and public acceptance aspects play a

  9. Evaluation of fusion study from socio-economic aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konishi, S.; Okano, K.; Ogawa, Y.; Nagumo, S.; Tokimatsu, K.; Tobita, K.

    2005-01-01

    A fusion research project was evaluated from the aspects of socio-economics and its possible economic benefit. Research project itself has large economic impacts and it appears in a different way in different time. Four categories were identified as such mechanisms; direct economic effect by purchase and employment, the growth of local community and its economy, an improvement of technical capability of the industry stimulated by the development, and fusion energy supply under environmental constraints. Industrial effects were analysed from actual R and D program and found to yield considerable economic outcome, although contribution by the research itself is far smaller than that required for industry before actual commercial products can be produced. Economic value of fusion energy could be huge, but appears several decades future, and should be reduced by discount rate and success probability. Its value is more important as a part of environmental policy. Value of the fusion research at present age cannot be estimated as actual benefit, but as the effectiveness in the policy, or benefit for public that is now regarded as a kind of Externality

  10. Thermo economical evaluation of retrofitting strategies in air conditioning systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tribess, Arlindo; Fiorelli, Flavio Augusto Sanzogo; Hernandez Neto, Alberto [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica. Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica]. E-mail: atribess@usp.br; fiorelli@usp.br; ahneto@usp.br

    2000-07-01

    In a building project, several subsystems are designed, among them the air conditioning system. Electrical energy consumption profiles show that this subsystem is responsible for 40 to 50% of total consumption in a commercial building. Besides the study of technical aspects that should be considered in order to assure the thermal comfort of the occupants as well the temperature and humidity conditions for an efficient equipment operation, an economical evaluation of this subsystem should be also made. In retrofit projects, the economical aspect is also critical for such projects in order to assure bigger efficiency in an economically attractive way. This paper analyses some strategies that might be adopted in retrofitting an air conditioning system installed in a commercial building with mixed occupation. By mixed we mean that some floors have a typical office occupation profile and other floors are mainly occupied by electronic equipment. This analysis includes both technical and economical evaluation. The proposed solutions performance are compared to the old system, which allows to verify the retrofitting impact in energy consumption reduction and its economical feasibility. (author)

  11. Theoretical and methodological basis for the formation and evaluation of the level of the economic system's strategic economic potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kljushin Vladislav Vladimirovich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The current level of business activity of socio-economic systems of different scale and insufficient to increase their overall potential. To solve this problem, the first priority is the effective management of their strategic and economic potential. Managerial decision-making about the use of economic resources strategic socio-economic systems requires the development of a methodology to identify and evaluate strategic and economic potential.

  12. Economic Evaluation of Teledentistry in Cleft Lip and Palate Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teoh, Jonathan; Hsueh, Arthur; Mariño, Rodrigo; Manton, David; Hallett, Kerrod

    2018-06-01

    To assess the use of Teledentistry (TD) in delivering specialist dental services at the Royal Children's Hospital (RCH) for rural and regional patients and to conduct an economic evaluation by building a decision model to estimate the costs and effectiveness of Teledental consultations compared with standard consultations at the RCH. A model-based analysis was conducted to determine the potential costs of implementing TD at the RCH. The outcome measure was timely consultations (whether the patient presented within an appropriate time according to the recommended schedule). Dental records at the RCH of those who presented for orthodontic or pediatric dental consultations were assessed. A cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), comparing TD with the traditional method of consultation, was conducted. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of the results. Results and Materials: A total of 367 TD appropriate consultations were identified, of which 241 were timely (65.7%). The mean cost of a RCH consultation was A$431.29, with the mean TD consult costing A$294.35. This represents a cost saving of A$136.95 per appointment. The CEA found TD to be a dominant option, with cost savings of A$3,160.81 for every additional timely consult. The model indicated that 36.7 days of clinic time may be freed up at the RCH to treat other patients and expand capacity. These results were robust when performing one-way sensitivity analysis. When taking a societal perspective, the implementation of TD is likely to be a cost-effective alternative compared with the standard practice of face-to-face consultation at the RCH.

  13. Vacuum boilers developed heating surfaces technic and economic efficiency evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slobodina, E. N.; Mikhailov, A. G.; Semenov, B. A.

    2018-01-01

    The vacuum boilers as manufacturing proto types application analysis was carried out, the possible directions for the heating surfaces development are identified with a view to improving the energy efficiency. Economic characteristics to evaluate the vacuum boilers application efficiency (Net Discounted Income (NDI), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI) and Payback Period) are represented. The given type boilers application technic and economic efficiency criteria were established. NDI changing curves depending on the finning coefficient and operating pressure were obtained as a result of the conducted calculation studies.

  14. An example of economical evaluation of stratiform uranium ore deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyata, Hatsuho; Tabuchi, Akihiro; Ushijima, Kenichi.

    1992-01-01

    The Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development corp. has carried out the business of uranium resource investigation and exploration in foreign countries aiming at securing uranium resources. If there is the possibility of economically developing the discovered uranium deposit, it is transferred to a Japanese private enterprise. In this paper, among the economical evaluation works that were carried out for the uranium deposits discovered by the Corp., the example of the initial economical evaluation for a stratiform uranium deposit carried out recently is reported. The deposit is located at the depth of 50 m - 70 m, and is a stratiform deposit having the extension of 4000 m x 1000 m. The boring investigation of about 350 holes was carried out for it. The estimation of the amount of uranium was done, and the production plan was made considering the scale of production, the characteristics of the ore, the circumstances of the site and so on. Based on the production plan, the initial expenses and the operation expenses were calculated. The design of the optimal pit which affects most the profitability and the economical evaluation were carried out. (K.I.)

  15. Developmental Education Evaluation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry-Miller, Mitzi; And Others

    A developmental education evaluation model designed to be used at a multi-unit urban community college is described. The purpose of the design was to determine the cost effectiveness/worth of programs in order to initiate self-improvement. A needs assessment was conducted by interviewing and taping the responses of students, faculty, staff, and…

  16. CMAQ Model Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    CMAQ is tested to establish the modeling system’s credibility in predicting pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. Evaluation of CMAQ has been designed to assess the model’s performance for specific time periods and for specific uses.

  17. The War on Illegal Drug Production and Trafficking: An Economic Evaluation of Plan Colombia

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel Mejía; Pascual Restrepo

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides a thorough economic evaluation of the anti-drug policies implemented in Colombia between 2000 and 2006 under the so-called Plan Colombia. The paper develops a game theory model of the war against illegal drugs in producer countries. We explicitly model illegal drug markets, which allows us to account for the feedback effects between policies and market outcomes that are potentially important when evaluating large scale policy interventions such as Plan Colombia. We use ava...

  18. A model to determine the economic viability of water fluoridation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroon, Jeroen; van Wyk, Philippus Johannes

    2012-01-01

    In view of concerns expressed by South African local authorities the aim of this study was to develop a model to determine whether water fluoridation is economically viable to reduce dental caries in South Africa. Microsoft Excel software was used to develop a model to determine economic viability of water fluoridation for 17 water providers from all nine South African provinces. Input variables for this model relate to chemical cost, labor cost, maintenance cost of infrastructure, opportunity cost, and capital depreciation. The following output variables were calculated to evaluate the cost of water fluoridation: per capita cost per year, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit. In this model it is assumed that the introduction of community water fluoridation can reduce caries prevalence by an additional 15 percent and that the savings in cost of treatment will be equal to the average fee for a two surface restoration. Water providers included in the study serve 53.5 percent of the total population of South Africa. For all providers combined chemical cost contributes 64.5 percent to the total cost, per capita cost per year was $0.36, cost-effectiveness was calculated as $11.41 and cost-benefit of the implementation of water fluoridation was 0.34. This model confirmed that water fluoridation is an economically viable option to prevent dental caries in South African communities, as well as conclusions over the last 10 years that water fluoridation leads to significant cost savings and remains a cost-effective measure for reducing dental caries, even when the caries-preventive effectiveness is modest. © 2012 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  19. Systematic overview of economic evaluations of health-related rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard-Wilsher, Stephanie; Irvine, Lisa; Fan, Hong; Shakespeare, Tom; Suhrcke, Marc; Horton, Simon; Poland, Fiona; Hooper, Lee; Song, Fujian

    2016-01-01

    Health related rehabilitation is instrumental in improving functioning and promoting participation by people with disabilities. To make clinical and policy decisions about health-related rehabilitation, resource allocation and cost issues need to be considered. To provide an overview of systematic reviews (SRs) on economic evaluations of health-related rehabilitation. We searched multiple databases to identify relevant SRs of economic evaluations of health-related rehabilitation. Review quality was assessed by AMSTAR checklist. We included 64 SRs, most of which included economic evaluations alongside randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The review quality was low to moderate (AMSTAR score 5-8) in 35, and high (score 9-11) in 29 of the included SRs. The included SRs addressed various health conditions, including spinal or other pain conditions (n = 14), age-related problems (11), stroke (7), musculoskeletal disorders (6), heart diseases (4), pulmonary (3), mental health problems (3), and injury (3). Physiotherapy was the most commonly evaluated rehabilitation intervention in the included SRs (n = 24). Other commonly evaluated interventions included multidisciplinary programmes (14); behavioral, educational or psychological interventions (11); home-based interventions (11); complementary therapy (6); self-management (6); and occupational therapy (4). Although the available evidence is often described as limited, inconsistent or inconclusive, some rehabilitation interventions were cost-effective or showed cost-saving in a variety of disability conditions. Available evidence comes predominantly from high income countries, therefore economic evaluations of health-related rehabilitation are urgently required in less resourced settings. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Solar energy system economic evaluation: Contemporary Newman, Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    An economic evaluation of performance of the solar energy system (based on life cycle costs versus energy savings) for five cities considered to be representative of a broad range of environmental and economic conditions in the United States is discussed. The considered life cycle costs are: hardware, installation, maintenance, and operating costs for the solar unique components of the total system. The total system takes into consideration long term average environmental conditions, loads, fuel costs, and other economic factors applicable in each of five cities. Selection criteria are based on availability of long term weather data, heating degree days, cold water supply temperature, solar insolation, utility rates, market potential, and type of solar system.

  1. Evaluation of the economic and financial management in Mexican microenterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malena Portal Boza

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The exhibit features Mexican microenterprises today give evidence of the problems that they face in terms of managing their activities, where the role of economic-financial elements is perceived. Although the issue has been addressed in previous studies the contribution of this study is to evaluate in an integrated manner the level of economic and financial management (GEF in micro and impact on business results. To do an index is constructed from indicators synthetic methodology using the principal components factor analysis, accompanied by linear regression exercises. The results confirm the presence of elements of GEF in micro studied. Moreover, it was found that the extent to which GEF elements are incorporated in its activities, the impact on their business results will be positive. These observations constitute the prelude to the creation of public policies seeking to establish improvement strategies for such companies, besides that fosters future research for analysis but by sectors of economic activity.

  2. Economic evaluation of nuclear reactor operation utilizing power effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budinsky, M.; Mydliar, J.

    1988-01-01

    The operation of a reactor at the so-called power effect may substantially increase the burnup of fuel to be removed. The aim of the evaluation of such reactor operation is the optimal determination of the time over which the yield of the higher use of fuel exceeds economic losses resulting from the increased share of constant expenditure of the price of generated kWh of electric power which ensues from such operation. A mathematical model is presented for such evaluation of reactor operation with regard to benefits for the national economy which is the basis of the ESTER 2 computer program. The calculations show that the prices of generated and delivered kWh are minimally 2% less than the prices of generated power without the power effect use. The minimum ranges in the interval of 30 to 50 days. The dependence of the price of generated and delivered kWh from the point of view of the operator of the power plant as well as the component of fuel price of generated kWh will not reach the minimum even after 50 days of operation. From the operating and physical points of view the duration of power effect is not expected to exceed 20 to 30 days which means that from the point of view of the national economy the price of generated and delivered kWh will be 1.6 to 2% less and the fuel component of the price of the generated kWh will be 3 to 4.5% lower. (Z.M.). 5 figs., 3 refs

  3. Multi-Attribute Modelling of Economic and Ecological Impacts of Cropping Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bohanec, M.; Dzeroski, S.; Znidarsic, M.; Messéan, A.; Scatasta, S.; Wesseler, J.H.H.

    2004-01-01

    Modelling of economic and ecological impacts of genetically modified crops is a demanding task. We present some preliminary attempts made for the purpose of the ECOGEN project "Soil ecological and economic evaluation of genetically modified crops". One of the goals of the project is to develop a

  4. The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

    2014-10-15

    Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

  5. Evaluating transfer capability of economic-driven power markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao

    2007-01-01

    in the present economic-driven electricity markets. A mathematical model of a multi-objective optimization (MOOP) technique has been adopted and presented here for transfer capability studies; which can be helpful for power system planning and operation procedures. The newly-developed algorithm is being tested......The on-going restructuring of electric power utilities poses great challenges for power system engineers to plan and operate power systems as economical and reliable as possible. This paper discusses an important issue, which has been usually neglected, when quantifying active power transfer levels...

  6. Economic and environmental evaluation of investment projects of biogas plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzmán Marrero, Elizabeth; Guzmán Chinea, Jesús Manuel; Mata Varela, Milagros C.; Pérez González, Yanet

    2015-01-01

    The economic evaluation of the implementation and use of renewable energy is an issue of paramount importance and has been approached from different perspectives by different authors in different countries. Biogas technology has its own characteristics that make it more complex analysis involved not only in this case the energy aspect but there is also a significant impact on health assessment difficult, fertilization, soil improvement, animal feed and improved conditions of life. The capital budgeting, in conjunction with the planning process, is a key economic tool for decision making and in turn represents an ongoing challenge for the agricultural sector. It is a necessity of our country, together with the entire world, potentiate the action to correct management of organic waste generated in intensive pig farming, to contribute to the reduction of environmental impacts that this work causes. Studies in this area show the shortcomings that exist in Cuban law established for the evaluation of investment projects, both in its structure and in its cycle, without taking into account important elements such as risk analysis. This research evaluates the economic and financial feasibility of an investment project, including a social and environmental assessment of the same financial justification for the inclusion of risk analysis in the evaluation process (full text)

  7. Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

    OpenAIRE

    Prokhorova, V.

    2010-01-01

    The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

  8. Alpine Windharvest: development of information base regarding potentials and the necessary technical, legal and socio-economic conditions for expanding wind energy in the Alpine Space - CFD modelling evaluation - Summary of WindSim CFD modelling procedure and validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaffner, B.; Cattin, R. [Meteotest, Berne (Switzerland)

    2005-07-01

    This report presents the development work carried out by the Swiss meteorology specialists of the company METEOTEST as part of a project carried out together with the Swiss wind-energy organisation 'Suisse Eole'. The framework for the project is the EU Interreg IIIB Alpine Space Programme, a European Community Initiative Programme funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The project investigated the use of digital relief-analysis. The report describes the development of a basic information system to aid the investigation of the technical, legal and socio-economical conditions for the use of wind energy in the alpine area. The report deals with the use of computational fluid dynamics and wind simulation modelling techniques and their validation. Recommendations on the use of the results are made.

  9. Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2003-01-01

    The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

  10. Static and dynamic models in economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiullin, N. Z.; Safiullin, B. L.

    2018-05-01

    In this article, the authors consider the impact of information and advertising on consumer behavior and the process of producing differentiation formation. Advertising, television, radio, magazines and direct mail as major constraints of mass media may act as sources of information. Economic modernization is aimed at development of acceleration of the knowledge intensive industries, which contribute to Russia’s position in terms of the world economy; the recovering process of the Russian economic manufacturing base; development of import substitution industries and limited participation in international labor specialization.

  11. Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

  12. Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishchulina E.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

  13. Economic evaluation of closure cap barrier materials study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serrato, M.G.; Bhutani, J.S.; Mead, S.M.

    1993-09-01

    Volume II of the Economic Evaluation of the Closure Cap Barrier Materials, Revision I contains detailed cost estimates for closure cap barrier materials. The cost estimates incorporate the life cycle costs for a generic hazardous waste seepage basin closure cap under the RCRA Post Closure Period of thirty years. The economic evaluation assessed six barrier material categories. Each of these categories consists of several composite cover system configurations, which were used to develop individual cost estimates. The information contained in this report is not intended to be used as a cost estimating manual. This information provides the decision makers with the ability to screen barrier materials, cover system configurations, and identify cost-effective materials for further consideration.

  14. New approaches to the economic evaluation of fusion research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelrigg, G.A.; Lietzke, K.R.

    1978-01-01

    The economic evaluation of fusion research to date has focussed on the benefits of essentially unlimited energy for future generations. In this paper it is shown that energy research in general, and fusion research in particular, also provides benefits in the short term, benefitting us today as well as future generations. Short-term benefits are the result of two distinct aspects of fusion research. First, fusion research provides information for decision making on both the continuing fusion research efforts and on other energy research programs. Second, fusion research provides an expectation of a future energy source thereby promoting accelerated consumption of existing fossil fuels today. Both short-term benefits can be quantitatively evaluated and both are quite substantial. Together, these short-term benefits form the primary economic rationale for fusion research

  15. Economic evaluation of closure cap barrier materials study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serrato, M.G.; Bhutani, J.S.; Mead, S.M.

    1993-09-01

    Volume II of the Economic Evaluation of the Closure Cap Barrier Materials, Revision I contains detailed cost estimates for closure cap barrier materials. The cost estimates incorporate the life cycle costs for a generic hazardous waste seepage basin closure cap under the RCRA Post Closure Period of thirty years. The economic evaluation assessed six barrier material categories. Each of these categories consists of several composite cover system configurations, which were used to develop individual cost estimates. The information contained in this report is not intended to be used as a cost estimating manual. This information provides the decision makers with the ability to screen barrier materials, cover system configurations, and identify cost-effective materials for further consideration

  16. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  17. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  18. Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

    1979-10-01

    This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

  19. Monetary conversion factors for economic evaluations of substance use disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollister, Kathryn; Yang, Xuan; Sayed, Bisma; French, Michael T; Leff, Jared A; Schackman, Bruce R

    2017-10-01

    Estimating the economic consequences of substance use disorders (SUDs) is important for evaluating existing programs and new interventions. Policy makers in particular must weigh program effectiveness with scalability and sustainability considerations in deciding which programs to fund with limited resources. This study provides a comprehensive list of monetary conversion factors for a broad range of consequences, services, and outcomes, which can be used in economic evaluations of SUD interventions (primarily in the United States), including common co-occurring conditions such as HCV and HIV. Economic measures were selected from standardized clinical assessment instruments that are used in randomized clinical trials and other research studies (e.g., quasi-experimental community-based projects) to evaluate the impact of SUD interventions. National datasets were also reviewed for additional SUD-related consequences, services, and outcomes. Monetary conversion factors were identified through a comprehensive literature review of published articles as well as targeted searches of other sources such as government reports. Eight service/consequence/outcome domains were identified containing more than sixty monetizable measures of medical and behavioral health services, laboratory services, SUD treatment, social services, productivity outcomes, disability outcomes, criminal activity and criminal justice services, and infectious diseases consequences. Unit-specific monetary conversion factors are reported, along with upper and lower bound estimates, whenever possible. Having an updated and standardized source of monetary conversion factors will facilitate and improve future economic evaluations of interventions targeting SUDs and other risky behaviors. This exercise should be repeated periodically as new sources of data become available to maintain the timeliness, comprehensiveness, and quality of these estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc

  20. The conceptual design and economic evaluation of utility scale SMES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuda, M.

    1986-01-01

    The paper reports the result of current Japanese activities in designing and evaluating the economic feasibility of utility Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES). The 5 GWh/1 GW is proposed as a relevant unit of SMES in the year 2000. More than 20 companies, several universities and two national laboratories joined in a task force to study this technology. After three year's assessment, the conclusion on utility scale SMES is that no unresolvable technologies have been found and commercialization potential exists

  1. Economic evaluation method of new facilities for uranium ore processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hebert, J.P.

    1986-01-01

    The importance of economic evaluation in feasibility studies is underlined. Notions of discounting are recalled. Profits of a project are analyzed. Studies can be relatively simple for a first estimation if investment cost and production cost are available because profits of a new production unit or savings obtained by a new investment are determined. But for integrated projects mine-plant the studies are complex especially for complete exploitation account [fr

  2. Pragmatic geometric model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamer, Robert

    2015-04-01

    Quantification of subsurface model reliability is mathematically and technically demanding as there are many different sources of uncertainty and some of the factors can be assessed merely in a subjective way. For many practical applications in industry or risk assessment (e. g. geothermal drilling) a quantitative estimation of possible geometric variations in depth unit is preferred over relative numbers because of cost calculations for different scenarios. The talk gives an overview of several factors that affect the geometry of structural subsurface models that are based upon typical geological survey organization (GSO) data like geological maps, borehole data and conceptually driven construction of subsurface elements (e. g. fault network). Within the context of the trans-European project "GeoMol" uncertainty analysis has to be very pragmatic also because of different data rights, data policies and modelling software between the project partners. In a case study a two-step evaluation methodology for geometric subsurface model uncertainty is being developed. In a first step several models of the same volume of interest have been calculated by omitting successively more and more input data types (seismic constraints, fault network, outcrop data). The positions of the various horizon surfaces are then compared. The procedure is equivalent to comparing data of various levels of detail and therefore structural complexity. This gives a measure of the structural significance of each data set in space and as a consequence areas of geometric complexity are identified. These areas are usually very data sensitive hence geometric variability in between individual data points in these areas is higher than in areas of low structural complexity. Instead of calculating a multitude of different models by varying some input data or parameters as it is done by Monte-Carlo-simulations, the aim of the second step of the evaluation procedure (which is part of the ongoing work) is to

  3. Use of economic evaluation guidelines: 2 years' experience in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baladi, J F; Menon, D; Otten, N

    1998-05-01

    Considerable effort has been expended in recent years in the development of methodology guidelines for economic evaluation of pharmaceutical products, driven in part by the desire to improve the rigour and quality of economic evaluations and to help decision making. Canada was one of the first countries to develop such guidelines and to encourage their use. This paper examines the extent to which the economic evaluations that were submitted to the Canadian Coordinating Office for Health Technology Assessment in the last two years adhered to Canadian guidelines. The analytic technique employed by twelve studies as well as the comparator used, the perspective taken, the outcome measure selected, the cost items that were taken into consideration and the extent of sensitivity analyses that were performed are reviewed in this paper. It can be concluded that although studies have been of variable quality, the majority of them were well presented, complete and transparent, due in part to the guidelines. Except for the perspective of the analysis, guidelines were, in many respects, adhered to and did not restrict investigators to specific methodologies or specific techniques. They were also instrumental in ensuring a minimum set of standards.

  4. A Framework for Including Family Health Spillovers in Economic Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Janabi, Hareth; van Exel, Job; Brouwer, Werner; Coast, Joanna

    2016-02-01

    Health care interventions may affect the health of patients' family networks. It has been suggested that these "health spillovers" should be included in economic evaluation, but there is not a systematic method for doing this. In this article, we develop a framework for including health spillovers in economic evaluation. We focus on extra-welfarist economic evaluations where the objective is to maximize health benefits from a health care budget (the "health care perspective"). Our framework involves adapting the conventional cost-effectiveness decision rule to include 2 multiplier effects to internalize the spillover effects. These multiplier effects express the ratio of total health effects (for patients and their family networks) to patient health effects. One multiplier effect is specified for health benefit generated from providing a new intervention, one for health benefit displaced by funding this intervention. We show that using multiplier effects to internalize health spillovers could change the optimal funding decisions and generate additional health benefits to society. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, O.

    1993-01-01

    Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

  6. Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae MOROIANU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

  7. EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY PERTAINING TO USAGE OF AUTOMOTIVE TRANSPORT FACILITIES WHILE EXECUTING INTERNATIONAL CARGO TRANSPORTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Ivut

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a methodology for evaluation of economic efficiency pertaining to usage of automotive transport facilities while executing international cargo transportation on the basis of average internal norm calculation of automotive operational profitability of a specific model under conditions which are typical for the given market by an average carrier.

  8. Economic evaluation of vaccines : specificities and future challenges illustrated by recent European examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, M.J.; Westra, T.A.; Quilici, S.; Largeron, N.

    2013-01-01

    This study reviews the current challenges in the economic evaluation of vaccines with a focus on European countries. In particular, the type of clinical evidence generally available, the impact of discounting for time preference and the use of modeling to derive valid cost-effectiveness assessments

  9. Economic evaluation of vaccines : specificities and future challenges illustrated by recent European examples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J; Westra, Tjalke A; Quilici, Sibilia; Largeron, Nathalie

    This study reviews the current challenges in the economic evaluation of vaccines with a focus on European countries. In particular, the type of clinical evidence generally available, the impact of discounting for time preference and the use of modeling to derive valid cost-effectiveness assessments

  10. Evaluation of economical at a uranium enrichment demonstration plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugitsue, Noritake

    2001-01-01

    In this report, the economy of technical achievement apply in the uranium enrichment demonstration plant is evaluated. From the evaluation, it can be concluded that the expected purpose was achieved because there was a definite economic prospect to commercial plant. The benefit analysis of thirteen years operation of the uranium enrichment demonstration plant also provides a financial aspect of the uranium enrichment business. Therefore, the performance, price and reliability of the centrifuge is an important factor in the uranium enrichment business. And the continuous development of a centrifuge while considering balance with the development cost is necessary for the business in the future. (author)

  11. A macro-economic and sectoral evaluation of carbon taxation in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callonnec, Gael; Reynes, Frederic; Yeddir-Tamsamani, Yasser

    2011-01-01

    This paper evaluates the macro-economic and sectoral impact of a carbon tax in France using the Three-ME model that combines two important features: (1) The model has a detailed industrial structure and detailed description of the French tax system, particularly the taxation applied to energy. (2) It has the main properties of the neo-Keynesian models because it takes into account the slow process adjustment of prices and quantifies. Our results show under certain conditions the possibility of a double economic and environmental dividends resulting from carbon taxation, for both the short and long term. Carbon tax. Neo-Keynesian macro-economic model. Sectoral analysis. Initially published in 'Revue de l'OFCE / Debats et politiques' No. 120

  12. Transferability of economic evaluations of medical technologies: a new technology for orthopedic surgery

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steuten, Lotte Maria Gertruda; Vallejo-Torres, Laura; Young, Terry; Buxton, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Transferring results of economic evaluations across countries or jurisdictions can potentially save scarce evaluation resources while helping to make market access and reimbursement decisions in a timely fashion. This article points out why transferring results of economic evaluations is

  13. Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

  14. Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS)--explanation and elaboration: a report of the ISPOR Health Economic Evaluation Publication Guidelines Good Reporting Practices Task Force.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husereau, Don; Drummond, Michael; Petrou, Stavros; Carswell, Chris; Moher, David; Greenberg, Dan; Augustovski, Federico; Briggs, Andrew H; Mauskopf, Josephine; Loder, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    Economic evaluations of health interventions pose a particular challenge for reporting because substantial information must be conveyed to allow scrutiny of study findings. Despite a growth in published reports, existing reporting guidelines are not widely adopted. There is also a need to consolidate and update existing guidelines and promote their use in a user-friendly manner. A checklist is one way to help authors, editors, and peer reviewers use guidelines to improve reporting. The task force's overall goal was to provide recommendations to optimize the reporting of health economic evaluations. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement is an attempt to consolidate and update previous health economic evaluation guidelines into one current, useful reporting guidance. The CHEERS Elaboration and Explanation Report of the ISPOR Health Economic Evaluation Publication Guidelines Good Reporting Practices Task Force facilitates the use of the CHEERS statement by providing examples and explanations for each recommendation. The primary audiences for the CHEERS statement are researchers reporting economic evaluations and the editors and peer reviewers assessing them for publication. The need for new reporting guidance was identified by a survey of medical editors. Previously published checklists or guidance documents related to reporting economic evaluations were identified from a systematic review and subsequent survey of task force members. A list of possible items from these efforts was created. A two-round, modified Delphi Panel with representatives from academia, clinical practice, industry, and government, as well as the editorial community, was used to identify a minimum set of items important for reporting from the larger list. Out of 44 candidate items, 24 items and accompanying recommendations were developed, with some specific recommendations for single study-based and model-based economic evaluations. The final

  15. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  16. Evaluation of undrilled prospects. Sensitivity to economic and geological factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermanrud, C.; Abrahamsen, K.; Vollset, J.; Nordahl, S.; Jourdan, C.

    1996-01-01

    Economic prospect evaluation at an early stage involves personnel with different skills, such as geoscientists, reservoir engineers, construction engineers and economists. Data are transferred between these groups of people who often have only a vague understanding of the accuracy of the data they receive. This lack of communication naturally limits the correctness of the results. To improve this communication, the complete process of prospect evaluation (including both geological and economical aspects) has been followed here in order to show the different data sets that are transferred and to comment upon their accuracy. Although this paper is based entirely on Statoil's methodology, it is nevertheless believed to be of general relevance. In Statoil's methodology, prospect volumes calculated by geoscientists are given as likelihood distributions. Post-drilling examination of such volume distributions show that historically they have been too optimistic. However, historical prospect risking has correctly identified the most important risk factors and has been able to separate low-risk from high-risk prospects in a satisfactory manner. The number of appraisal wells that are needed before the development of a field can be decided upon is often crucial to the economic evaluations. This number, however, is usually underestimated during the early stages of exploration, probably because data limitations mask reservoir heterogeneities. Reservoir performance is of utmost importance to early economic calculations as it influences both the drilling costs and the production of hydrocarbons vs. time. Of course, reservoir productivity is highly uncertain when judged prior to drilling the first well. Historical data show that reserve estimates of producing fields tend to be upgraded as reservoir depletion proceeds, although several fields have had their reserve estimates downgraded shortly after production start-up. The operational and investment costs are not generally

  17. Fuel modelling and its economical competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, A.C.; Savino, E.J.

    1996-01-01

    Due to reasons of economical competitiveness, there is at present a strong need in the nuclear industry to improve fuel performance under more demanding operating conditions, such as those resulting from an extended burnup. This requires a good understanding of the properties of fuel rod materials and their in-service performance. As it can be easily foreseen, thermal, mechanical and microstructural irradiation effects are strongly interrelated while the fuel is at reactor operating conditions. (author). 7 refs., 16 figs

  18. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  19. Economic evaluation of multilateral nuclear fuel cycle approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takashima, Ryuta; Kuno, Yusuke; Omoto, Akira; Tanaka, Satoru

    2011-01-01

    Recently previous works have shown that multilateral nuclear fuel cycle approach has benefits not only of non-proliferation but also of cost effectiveness. This is because for most facilities in nuclear fuel cycle, there exist economies of scale, which has a significant impact on the costs of nuclear fuel cycle. Therefore, the evaluation of economic rationality is required as one of the evaluation factors for the multilateral nuclear fuel cycle approach. In this study, we consider some options with respect to multilateral approaches to nuclear fuel cycle in Asian-Pacific region countries that are proposed by the University of Tokyo. In particular, the following factors are embedded into each type: A) no involvement of assurance of services, B) provision of assurance of services including construction of new facility, without transfer of ownership, and C) provision of assurance of service including construction of new joint facilities with ownership transfer of facilities to multilateral nuclear fuel cycle approach. We show the overnight costs taking into account install and operation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities for each option. The economic parameter values such as uranium price, scale factor, and market output expansion influences the total cost for each option. Thus, we show how these parameter values and economic risks affect the total overnight costs for each option. Additionally, the international facilities could increase the risk of transportation for nuclear material compared to national facilities. We discuss the potential effects of this transportation risk on the costs for each option. (author)

  20. Evaluation of economics of spent fuel storage techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaji, Kenji; Nagano, Koji

    1988-01-01

    Various spent fuel storage techniques are evaluated in terms of required costs. The unit storage cost for each spent fuel storage scenario is calculated based on the total cost required for the scenario including capital expenditure, operation cost, maintenance cost and transport cost. Intermediate storage may be performed in relatively small facilities in the plant or in independent large-scale facilities installed away from the plant. Dry casks or water pools are assumed to be used in in-plant storage facilities while vaults may also be employed in independent facilities. Evaluation is made for these different cases. In in-plant facilities, dry cask storage is found to be more economical in all cases than water pool storage, especially when large-sized casks are employed. In independent facilities, on the other hand, the use of vaults is the most desirable because the required capital expenditure is the lowest due to the effect of scale economics. Dry cask storage is less expensive than water pool storage also in independent facilities. The annual discount rate has relatively small influence on the unit cost for storage. An estimated unit cost for storage in independent storage facilities is shown separately for facilities with a capacity of 1,000 tons, 3,000 tons or 5,000 tons. The report also outlines the economics of spent fuel storage in overseas facilities (Finland, Sweden and U.S.A.). (Nogami, K.)

  1. Economic evaluation of radiation processing in urban solid wastes treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carassiti, F.; Lacquaniti, L.; Liuzzo, G.

    During the last few years, quite a number of studies have been done, or are still in course, on disinfection of urban liquid wastes by means of ionizing radiations. The experience gained by SANDIA pilot plant of irradiation on dried sewage sludge, together with the recently presented conceptual design of another plant handling granular solids, characterized by high efficiency and simple running, have shown the possibility of extending this process to the treatment of urban solid wastes. As a matter of fact, the problems connected to the pathogenic aspects of sludge handling are often similar to those met during the disposal of urban solid wastes. This is even more so in the case of their reuse in agriculture and zootechny. The present paper introduces the results of an analysis carried out in order to evaluate the economical advantage of inserting irradiation treatment in some process scheme for management of urban solid wastes. Taking as an example a comprehensive pattern of urban solid wastes management which has been analysed and estimated economically in previous works, we first evaluated the extra capital and operational costs due to the irradiation and then analysed economical justification, taking into account the increasing commercial value of the by-products.

  2. [Performance of self-help groups and their economic evaluation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, H D; Trojan, A; Nickel, S

    2009-01-01

    Hoffmann von Fallersleben is quoted with the sentence "Self-help is worthwhile, because it does not demand anything from others". This sounds catchy; it is, however, wrong: Self-help groups ask for support, particularly for financial resources for the work of either individual, highly organized self-help associations or for general support of self-help groups via local contact and information centers ("contact points for self-help groups"). With this request for economic "investments" in self-help, the question arises whether this is profitable for the country, the local authority or the social health insurance. In principle, the initial answer to this is: yes, the work of self-help groups is worthwhile for a single person, but also for the larger community, as various kinds of services are provided by self-help groups and organizations. Despite many surveys of members or co-operation partners which show positive effects of self-help groups, the question remains whether services of self-help groups can be measured and economically evaluated. The socio- political question regarding funding is closely connected to the idea of an economic evaluation of self-help groups. The aim of this article is to summarize and discuss which empiric approaches and findings are available on this subject. The monetary value for the work done per member of self-help groups and year lies between approximately 700 and 900 EUR.

  3. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  4. Economic evaluation studies in nuclear medicine. A methodological review of the literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambhir, S.S.; Schwimmer, J.

    2000-01-01

    The growing need for evaluation of the utility of new nuclear medicine technologies has spawned a few economic studies ranging from preliminary indications of cost savings to complete decision analysis models incorporating costs and quality of life. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the methodological quality of economic analyses of nuclear medicine procedures which targeted cost-effectiveness or cost-utility issues published in the medical literature during the years 1985-1999. A computerized literature search was used to identify original investigations from the medical literature which included an economic analysis of a nuclear medicine procedure. Each economic analysis article was evaluated by two independent reviewers for adherence to ten accepted methodological criteria. Of the 29 articles meeting the search criteria, only six (21%) conformed to all ten methodological criteria. Published economic analyses of nuclear medicine procedures usually do not meet accepted methodological standards and could be significantly improved to achieve overall better quality relative to similar analyses in the literature from other medical fields. Continued improvement in the number and quality of economic studies is critically needed for the future competitiveness of nuclear medicine studies

  5. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

    2017-01-01

    While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

  6. Economic evaluation of I and C modernization approach in NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Hyeon Tae; Sung, Chan Ho; Lee, Jae Ki

    2009-01-01

    Utilities have recently been debating the respective pros and cons of implementation of a multi-phase modernization during several normal outages versus a single major modernization implementation during a prolonged outage. We have studied these approaches and have been developing the basic design of NPPs I and C modernization since early 2008. As part of this study, analyses of the NPPs I and C systems were conducted and the need for upgrading the systems was raised. One of the primary concerns regarding the system modernization is a cost-benefit implementation, which will influence the modernization approach. From this viewpoint, the I and C modernization must consider economic factors such as I and C vendor cost, architecture engineering cost, installation cost, utility cost, and other transition costs such as training and procedure development. This paper presents a comparison study of economical aspects including cost evaluation between the aforementioned modernization implementations and suggests a solution for the I and C modernization approach. (author)

  7. Economic evaluation of losses: technique and use of data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, T.K.; Drury, A.K.

    1992-01-01

    The paper reviews a major energy company's experience of the evaluation of the economic effects of accidents, discusses techniques for measurement and gives examples of current management use of the data. In 1988, British Petroleum carried out a pilot study at one of its coal mines in Illinois to investigate the direct cost of losses due to accidents to people, plant and equipment. It was found that the costs of losses were large (and in the case of the oil related studies the potential for loss was very large) and relatively easy to measure. However the use of the data to assist the effective management of operations required careful consideration. The paper concludes that measurement of the economic effect of accidents could be helpful to coal mining operations, but the correct organisational environment must be in place first. 3 figs., 6 tabs.

  8. Economical evaluation of damaged vacuum insulation panels in buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y. M.; Lee, H. Y.; Choi, G. S.; Kang, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    In Korea, thermal insulation standard of buildings have been tightened annually to satisfy the passive house standard from the year 2009. The current domestic policies about disseminating green buildings are progressively conducted. All buildings should be the zero energy building in the year 2025, obligatorily. The method is applied to one of the key technologies for high-performance insulation for zero energy building. The vacuum insulation panel is an excellent high performance insulation. But thermal performance of damaged vacuum insulation panels is reduced significantly. In this paper, the thermal performance of damaged vacuum insulation panels was compared and analyzed. The measurement result of thermal performance depends on the core material type. The insulation of building envelope is usually selected by economic feasibility. To evaluate the economic feasibility of VIPs, the operation cost was analyzed by simulation according to the types and damaged ratio of VIPs

  9. Energy-, environmental and economic evaluation of energy crops utilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-06-01

    This preliminary project is prepared in order to clarify the economic possibilities and rentability of energy crops. Examples of energy crop resource potential, environmental and economic consequences are calculated on the basis of existing data. Utilization of annual and perennial crops is evaluated with regard to the usual following of agricultural areas, and to the traditional power generation in a coal-fueled plant. Two technological options are discussed: one based on energy crop fuels supplementing the conventional coal fuel, and the other based on a separate biomass-fueled boiler, connected to the conventional coal-fueled unit. Implementation of the main project,following the preliminary one will permit to estimate the future prospects and strategies of energy crop utilization as a profitable energy resource. (EG)

  10. Economic evaluations of personalized medicine: existing challenges and current developments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shabaruddin FH

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Fatiha H Shabaruddin,1 Nigel D Fleeman,2 Katherine Payne3 1Department of Pharmacy, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2Liverpool Reviews and Implementation Group (LRiG, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; 3Institute of Population Health, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK Abstract: Personalized medicine, with the aim of safely, effectively, and cost-effectively targeting treatment to a prespecified patient population, has always been a long-time goal within health care. It is often argued that personalizing treatment will inevitably improve clinical outcomes for patients and help achieve more effective use of health care resources. Demand is increasing for demonstrable evidence of clinical and cost-effectiveness to support the use of personalized medicine in health care. This paper begins with an overview of the existing challenges in conducting economic evaluations of genetics- and genomics-targeted technologies, as an example of personalized medicine. Our paper illustrates the complexity of the challenges faced by these technologies by highlighting the variations in the issues faced by diagnostic tests for somatic variations, generally referring to genetic variation in a tumor, and germline variations, generally referring to inherited genetic variation in enzymes involved in drug metabolic pathways. These tests are typically aimed at stratifying patient populations into subgroups on the basis of clinical effectiveness (response or safety (avoidance of adverse events. The paper summarizes the data requirements for economic evaluations of genetics and genomics-based technologies while outlining that the main challenges relating to data requirements revolve around the availability and quality of existing data. We conclude by discussing current developments aimed to address the challenges of assessing the cost-effectiveness of genetics and genomics-based technologies, which revolve around two central issues that are

  11. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  12. Influence of production circumstances and economic evaluation criteria on economic comparison of breeds and breed-crosses.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kahi, A.K.; Koskey, I.S.; Cardoso, V.L.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.

    1998-01-01

    The ranking of genotypes (i.e., breeds and breed crosses) for economic performance depends on the production circumstances of the herd and the criteria for economic evaluation. In this study, the effects of evaluation criteria and production circumstance are quantified using data from the literature

  13. Methods of international health technology assessment agencies for economic evaluations--a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Tim; Jacobs, Esther; Morfeld, Jana-Carina; Pieper, Dawid

    2013-09-30

    exclusively. Methods for modeling are only described vaguely and mainly with the rational that the "appropriate model" depends on the decision problem. Considering all other aspects a comparison is challenging as recommendations vary regarding detailedness and addressed issues. There is a considerable unexplainable variance in recommendations. Further effort is needed to harmonize methods for preparing economic evaluations.

  14. Evaluation as institution: a contractarian argument for needs-based economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogowski, Wolf H

    2018-06-13

    There is a gap between health economic evaluation methods and the value judgments of coverage decision makers, at least in Germany. Measuring preference satisfaction has been claimed to be inappropriate for allocating health care resources, e.g. because it disregards medical need. The existing methods oriented at medical need have been claimed to disregard non-consequentialist fairness concerns. The aim of this article is to propose a new, contractarian argument for justifying needs-based economic evaluation. It is based on consent rather than maximization of some impersonal unit of value to accommodate the fairness concerns. This conceptual paper draws upon contractarian ethics and constitution economics to show how economic evaluation can be viewed as an institution to overcome societal conflicts in the allocation of scarce health care resources. For this, the problem of allocating scarce health care resources in a society is reconstructed as a social dilemma. Both disadvantaged patients and affluent healthy individuals can be argued to share interests in a societal contract to provide technologies which ameliorate medical need, based on progressive funding. The use of needs-based economic evaluation methods for coverage determination can be interpreted as institutions for conflict resolution as far as they use consented criteria to ensure the social contract's sustainability and avoid implicit rationing or unaffordable contribution rates. This justifies the use of needs-based evaluation methods by Pareto-superiority and consent (rather than by some needs-based value function per se). The view of economic evaluation presented here may help account for fairness concerns in the further development of evaluation methods. This is because it directs the attention away from determining some unit of value to be maximized towards determining those persons who are most likely not to consent and meeting their concerns. Following this direction in methods development is

  15. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  16. FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

    2011-01-01

    Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

  17. EVALUATION OF BARTIN CITY ECONOMIC CONSTRUCT WITH DIGITALIZED SWOT ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NERMİN ÇELİK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, firstly besides weakness and strengths of Bartın economy, threats and opportunities were presented by means of SWOT analysis. Secondly obtained findings were evaluated in comparative way and priority weights of each one were calculated by means of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP which is an evaluation approach with multiple criteria. Finally, the weak aspects were taken attention on the basis of quantitative findings and the alternative strategies towards to economic development of the city were presented. The weakest side of the city is high unemployment ratio and immigration problem, the most strength side of the city is the using for trading of Bartın port. Besides preparing that study as a first for Bartın city which is within the Encouragement Law, offering the solutions by evaluating the current and potential situations can be described as original sides of this study.

  18. Systematic review of economic evaluation analyses of available vaccines in Spain from 1990 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés, Isabel; Pérez-Camarero, Santiago; Del Llano, Juan; Peña, Luz María; Hidalgo-Vega, Alvaro

    2013-08-02

    The objective of this survey was to describe the evolution of economic evaluation studies on vaccines available in Spain. We conducted a systematic review of the economic evaluations published by Spanish researchers in major bibliographic databases available online from 1990 to 2012. For all references identified, we limited them to full economic evaluation carried out in Spanish vaccine programs. The following variables were analyzed: type of study, year of publication, vaccine evaluated, the herd immunity and the main methodological aspects proposed by international guidelines. The type of vaccines studied were Hepatitis A and B, Rotavirus, Influenza, Varicella, Tetanus, Measles, Human papillomavirus, Streptococcus pneumoniae infection and Neisseria meningitides serogroup C infection. A total of 34 references was included in the study. The number of economic evaluations has been increasing over the years by 86%. For many of the vaccines there were no economic evaluations, while others such as the vaccine against S. pneumoniae infection took up most of the studies. The non-vaccinated comparison was the most used strategy. The cost-effectiveness model was selected in 60% of cases. The most common health outcome was "cost per case prevented" and in 82% of the studies did not consider herd immunity. The results showed a cost-effectiveness ratio which was below breakeven. It is clear that the existence of a huge gap in this kind of work compared to other countries. Although the quality of the work discussed here was significant, we found many areas which could be improved. The reviewed literature exposed the great benefit of vaccination for society by analysing the health outcomes achieved for decades since its implementation. However, the evidence on the efficiency and effectiveness vaccination is not very high, and there are few studies about economic evaluation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

    2007-01-01

    Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

  20. A Systematic Review of the State of Economic Evaluation for Health Care in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinja, Shankar; Chauhan, Akashdeep Singh; Angell, Blake; Gupta, Indrani; Jan, Stephen

    2015-12-01

    Economic evaluations are one of the important tools in policy making for rational allocation of resources. Given the very low public investment in the health sector in India, it is critical that resources are used wisely on interventions proven to yield best results. Hence, we undertook this study to assess the extent and quality of evidence for economic evaluation of health-care interventions and programmes in India. A comprehensive search was conducted to search for published full economic evaluations pertaining to India and addressing a health-related intervention or programme. PubMed, Scopus, Embase, ScienceDirect, and York CRD database and websites of important research agencies were identified to search for economic evaluations published from January 1980 to the middle of November 2014. Two researchers independently assessed the quality of the studies based on Drummond and modelling checklist. Out of a total of 5013 articles enlisted after literature search, a total of 104 met the inclusion criteria for this systematic review. The majority of these papers were cost-effectiveness studies (64%), led by a clinician or public-health professional (77%), using decision analysis-based methods (59%), published in an international journal (80%) and addressing communicable diseases (58%). In addition, 42% were funded by an international funding agency or UN/bilateral aid agency, and 30% focussed on pharmaceuticals. The average quality score of these full economic evaluations was 65.1%. The major limitation was the inability to address uncertainties involved in modelling as only about one-third of the studies assessed modelling structural uncertainties (33%), or ran sub-group analyses to account for heterogeneity (36.5%) or analysed methodological uncertainty (32%). The existing literature on economic evaluations in India is inadequate to feed into sound policy making. There is an urgent need to generate awareness within the government of how economic evaluation can

  1. Cost of illness and economic evaluation in rare diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Bastida, Julio; Oliva-Moreno, Juan

    2010-01-01

    Rare diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in high income countries and have major repercussions on individuals and health care systems. This chapter examines the health economy of rare diseases from two different perspectives: firstly, the study of the economic impact of rare diseases (Cost of Illness studies); and, secondly, cost-effectiveness evaluation, which evaluates both the costs and results of the health care technologies applied in rare diseases. From the point of view of economics, health resource allocation is based on the principle of scarcity, as there are not - and never will be- sufficient resources for all worthy objectives. Hence, policy makers should balance costs and health outcomes. Rare diseases may well represent a significant societal burden that should rightly receive appropriate prioritisation of health care resources. As new and seemingly expensive health care technologies are developed for rare diseases, it will become increasingly important to evaluate potential and real impact of these new technologies in both dimensions: social costs and health outcomes.

  2. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-09-01

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Evaluating β-convergence of the Socio-Economic Development of Ukraine’s Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyzym Mykola O.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to evaluating β-convergence of the socio-economic development of Ukraine’s regions. The essence and theoretical basis of evaluation of σ- and β-convergence is studied. The neoclassical theory of growth of R. Solow that serves as a basis for models of β-convergence is considered. The essence and features of evaluation of the absolute (unconditional and conditional β-convergence is examined. The existing empirical researches of the economic development of countries and their regions with the use of convergence models are analyzed and it is found that: the theory of convergent-divergent development of countries and their regions is sufficiently developed; there are certain studies aimed at evaluation and analysis of the convergence of regional development in Ukraine, but there is no comprehensive study that comprises the building of all the above types of β-convergence models for the period covering the years before and after the crisis of 2008–2009. A scheme of the investigation of the convergence process in regions of Ukraine is proposed, and on this basis the evaluation of β-convergence for Ukraine’s regions is conducted with the use of four types of models: the Barro and Sala-i-Martin model, the Baumol model, the Solow-Swan model, the Cuadrado-Roura model. On the basis of the study it has been found that for the peripheral regions the presence of convergence of their social and economic development is determined by the share of services in the gross regional product to a greater extent and availability of mineral resources to a less extent, but the given result is obtained only with the use of the Barro Sala-i-Martin model, for the other models the condition of β-convergence is not met.

  4. Economic evaluation of algae biodiesel based on meta-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongli; Liu, Xiaowei; White, Mark A.; Colosi, Lisa M.

    2017-08-01

    The objective of this study is to elucidate the economic viability of algae-to-energy systems at a large scale, by developing a meta-analysis of five previously published economic evaluations of systems producing algae biodiesel. Data from original studies were harmonised into a standardised framework using financial and technical assumptions. Results suggest that the selling price of algae biodiesel under the base case would be 5.00-10.31/gal, higher than the selected benchmarks: 3.77/gal for petroleum diesel, and 4.21/gal for commercial biodiesel (B100) from conventional vegetable oil or animal fat. However, the projected selling price of algal biodiesel (2.76-4.92/gal), following anticipated improvements, would be competitive. A scenario-based sensitivity analysis reveals that the price of algae biodiesel is most sensitive to algae biomass productivity, algae oil content, and algae cultivation cost. This indicates that the improvements in the yield, quality, and cost of algae feedstock could be the key factors to make algae-derived biodiesel economically viable.

  5. Economic evaluation and cost of interventions for cerebral palsy: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Sophy T F; Tonmukayakul, Utsana; Imms, Christine; Reddihough, Dinah; Graham, H Kerr; Cox, Liz; Carter, Rob

    2018-06-01

    Economic appraisal can help guide policy-making for purchasing decisions, and treatment and management algorithms for health interventions. We conducted a systematic review of economic studies in cerebral palsy (CP) to inform future research. Economic studies published since 1970 were identified from seven databases. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and extracted data following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Any discrepancies were resolved by discussion. Of 980 identified references, 115 were included for full-text assessment. Thirteen articles met standard criteria for a full economic evaluation, two as partial economic evaluations, and 18 as cost studies. Six were full economic evaluations alongside clinical studies or randomized controlled trials, whereas seven involved modelling simulations. The economic case for administration of magnesium sulfate for imminent preterm birth is compelling, achieving both health gain and cost savings. Current literature suggests intrathecal baclofen therapy and botulinum toxin injection are cost-effective, but stronger evidence for long-term effects is needed. Lifestyle and web-based interventions are inexpensive, but broader measurement of outcomes is required. Prevention of CP would avoid significant economic burden. Some treatments and interventions have been shown to be cost-effective, although stronger evidence of clinical effectiveness is needed. What this paper adds Cost-effectiveness evidence shows prevention is the most significant strategy. Some treatments are cost-effective, but stronger evidence for long-term effectiveness is required. Comparison of treatment costs is challenging owing to variations in methodologies and varying clinical indications. © 2018 Mac Keith Press.

  6. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

  7. Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

  8. Psoriasis treatment and management - a systematic review of full economic evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, M P; Ntais, D; Griffiths, C E M; Davies, L M

    2015-03-01

    Psoriasis frequently requires lifetime control and current therapies vary significantly in price. High-quality economic evaluations are necessary to determine if higher-cost treatments are value for money. This review aims to identify the cost-effectiveness of psoriasis care (whether more expensive interventions are associated with savings in health care and psoriasis management and/or improve patients' health); assess the level of uncertainty and transferability of this evidence to policy and practice; and, identify future research needs. Searches of electronic databases Embase, MEDLINE and NHS EED for full economic evaluations were conducted in January 2012 (updated April 2014). Included articles were screened, selected and critically appraised using predefined inclusion criteria and data extraction forms: 1355 articles were identified; 37 papers reporting 71 comparisons met the inclusion criteria. Treatments evaluated were systemic (n = 45), topical (n = 22), phototherapies (n = 14) and combination (n = 4). Despite a significant number of recent economic evaluations, the cost-effectiveness of all therapies remains unclear. This uncertainty arises from a diversity in settings, perspective and design. Economic evaluations were constrained by limited availability of high-quality short- and long-term head-to-head comparisons of the effectiveness, safety and adherence of different interventions. The economic evidence is dominated by comparisons of interventions to placebo, with implicit comparisons of different therapies. There is a lack of evaluations of service model innovations to deliver complex packages of care for psoriasis. Primary and secondary integrated clinical and economic research is needed to address the limitations and to identify patient preferences and barriers/facilitators to treatment. © 2014 British Association of Dermatologists.

  9. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  10. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  11. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  12. Techno-economic evaluation of broadband access technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigurdsson, Halldór Matthias; Skouby, Knud Erik

    2005-01-01

    Broadband for all is an essential element in the EU policy concerning the future of ICT-based society. The overall purpose of this paper is to present a model for evaluation of different broadband access technologies and to present some preliminary results based on the model that has been carried...

  13. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF Eucalyptus grandis PLANTATION FOR CELLULOSE PRODUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this research were: to analyze the economic feasibility of planting eucalyptus for producing wood pulp,considering various site index and two spacings; to analyze the economic effects regarding the profitability of the forest activity indifferent distances from the industry and changes on discount rate, wood price, transportation costs, minimum profitable diameter oflogs and the length of the logs. A biometric model for making wood volume prognosis was developed, using data of a trial ofEucalyptus grandis stands 19 and 103 months old. The prognosis started at the age zero, considering logs of 2.5 and 6.0 m of lenghtand the minimum diameter varying from 4 to 10 cm, in intervals of 2 cm. Net Present Worth (NPW was used as the economic decisioncriterium, considering an infinite horizon. The main conclusions were: reducing the minimum profitable diameter and the length ofthe logs are good strategies to increase wood utilization and profit; plantations located in less productive lands are economicallyunfeasible; the cost of transportation has significant effect on the profitability of the forest activity and must be analyzed carefully atthe moment of defining the location of new plantations; small variations on wood sales price may cause big alterations on theprofitability of the forest activity, suggesting that the improvement of the wood quality together with other decisions that may increasewood price are alternatives that may render the plantations in less productive areas profitable.

  14. Economic evaluation studies in reproductive medicine: a systematic review of methodologic quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, Lobke M.; Vijgen, Sylvia M. C.; Hompes, Peter; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Opmeer, Brent C.

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate the methodologic quality of economic analyses published in the field of reproductive medicine. Systematic review. Centers for reproductive care. Infertility patients. We performed a Medline search to identify economic evaluation studies in reproductive medicine. We included studies that

  15. The revised Canadian Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glennie, J L; Torrance, G W; Baladi, J F; Berka, C; Hubbard, E; Menon, D; Otten, N; Rivière, M

    1999-05-01

    The first edition of the Guidelines for Economic Evaluation of Pharmaceuticals: Canada was published in November 1994. At that time, the Canadian Coordinating Office for Health Technology Assessment (CCOHTA) was assigned the task of maintaining and regularly updating the Canadian Guidelines. Since their introduction, a great deal of experience has been gained with the practical application of the guidelines. Their role has also evolved over time, from being a framework for pharmacoeconomic research to the point where a wide variety of decision-makers use economic evaluations based on the principles set out in the guidelines as a means of facilitating their formulary decisions. In addition, methodologies in certain areas (and the body of related research literature in general) have developed considerably over time. Given these changes in the science and the experience gained, CCOHTA convened a multi-disciplinary committee to address the need for revisions to the guidelines. The underlying principles of the review process were to keep the guidance nature of the document, to focus on the needs of 'doers' (so as to meet the information needs of 'users') and to provide information and advice in areas of controversy, with sound direction in areas of general agreement. The purpose of this review is three-fold: (i) to outline the process which lead to the revision of the Canadian Guidelines; (ii) to describe the major changes made to the second edition of this document; and (iii) to consider the 'next steps' as they relate to the impact of such guidelines and the measurement of outcomes related to economic assessments of pharmaceuticals in general.

  16. Estimating costs in the economic evaluation of medical technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luce, B R; Elixhauser, A

    1990-01-01

    The complexities and nuances of evaluating the costs associated with providing medical technologies are often underestimated by analysts engaged in economic evaluations. This article describes the theoretical underpinnings of cost estimation, emphasizing the importance of accounting for opportunity costs and marginal costs. The various types of costs that should be considered in an analysis are described; a listing of specific cost elements may provide a helpful guide to analysis. The process of identifying and estimating costs is detailed, and practical recommendations for handling the challenges of cost estimation are provided. The roles of sensitivity analysis and discounting are characterized, as are determinants of the types of costs to include in an analysis. Finally, common problems facing the analyst are enumerated with suggestions for managing these problems.

  17. An approach to evaluating the economic impact of emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lieu, S.; Johnson, S.L.; Dabirian, S.

    1993-01-01

    The command-and-control system to air quality controls is a mixture of technology-forcing standards for existing sources and offset for new sources. More stringent controls are required to achieve the ambient air quality standards in non-attainment urban areas which have been conformed with burgeoning economic growth. Due to the economy of scale and locale of polluting sources, some sources can implement these controls in a more cost-effective manner than others. In order to minimize the control costs of regulated sources, trading of emissions has been stipulated and has occurred among power plants to curb acid rain at the national level. Southern California is currently embarking on the trading of oxides of nitrogen, reactive organic compounds, and oxides of sulfur among existing and new stationary sources. New economic opportunities for entrepreneurs with advances control technology will arise under emissions trading. Trading will also result in the redistribution of emissions geographically and across industries. Through the linkage of a linear-programming trading model, a regional econometric model, and an urban airshed model, the impact of trading on the Southern California economy can thus be examined. This paper describes a framework which can be used to compare and contrast RECLAIM with the command-and-control system; and discusses a few issues which may arise in a trading market and how these issues can be dealt with are also examined

  18. The development of the Hydrogen Economic Evaluation Program (HEEP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khamis, I.

    2010-01-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is developing software to perform economic analysis related to hydrogen production. The software is expected to analyse the economics of the four most promising processes for hydrogen production. These processes are: high and low temperature electrolysis, thermochemical processes including the S-I process, conventional electrolysis and steam reforming. The IAEA HEEP software is expected to be used for comparative studies between nuclear and fossil energy sources. Therefore, typical conventional methods are also to be included in HEEP to enable comparison with nuclear hydrogen production. The HEEP models will be based on some economic and technical data, and on cost modelling. Modelling will include various aspects of hydrogen economy including storage, transport and distribution with options to eliminate or include specific details as required by the users. Development of HEEP is based on the IAEA's successful programme during the development of DEEP. This IAEA DEEP software has been distributed free of charge to more than 500 scientists/engineers and researchers from 50 countries interested in cost estimation of desalination plants using nuclear/fossil energy sources. DEEP is not a design code. A number of member states engaged in nuclear desalination activities in their countries have used DEEP for conducting feasibility studies for establishing large nuclear desalination projects based on different nuclear reactors types and desalination processes. HEEP is expected to be similar to the IAEA software DEEP which is being used to perform economic analysis and feasibility studies related to nuclear desalination in the IAEA and other member states. It is expected that HEEP will have similar architecture to DEEP but with the possibility of easy update and future expansion. Various major processes and technologies are to be incorporated in the HEEP programme as the basis for modelling the performance and cost

  19. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  20. Production forecasting and economic evaluation of horizontal wells completed in natural fractured reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. D.

    1996-01-01

    A technique for optimizing recovery of hydrocarbons from naturally fractured reservoirs using horizontal well technology was proposed. The technique combines inflow performance analysis, production forecasting and economic considerations, and is based on material balance analysis and linear approximations of reservoir fluid properties as functions of reservoir pressure. An economic evaluation model accounting for the time value of cash flow, interest and inflation rates, is part of the package. Examples of using the technique have been demonstrated. The method is also applied to a gas well producing from a horizontal wellbore intersecting discrete natural fractures. 11 refs., 2 tabs,. 10 figs

  1. Solar-Powered Compaction Garbage Bins in Public Areas: A Preliminary Economic and Environmental Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Duc Nghiem

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available An excel-based model was developed to evaluate economic and environmental benefits of the solar-powered compaction garbage bins in public areas in Australia. Input data were collected from Brisbane and Wollongong City councils, and Sydney Olympic Park. The results demonstrate that solar-powered compaction garbage bins would provide environmental benefits in all scenarios. However, results of the economic analysis of the three studied areas varied significantly. The unique situation of Sydney Olympic Park made implementation in that facility particularly appealing. A lower monthly rental cost is needed for the implementation of this novel waste management practice.

  2. The methodological quality of economic evaluation studies in obstetrics and gynecology: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vijgen, Sylvia M. C.; Opmeer, Brent C.; Mol, Ben Willem J.

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the methodological quality of economic evaluation studies in the field of obstetrics and gynecology published in the last decade. A MEDLINE search was performed to find economic evaluation studies in obstetrics and gynecology from the years 1997 through 2009. We included full economic

  3. Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogawa, N

    1982-01-01

    This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the

  4. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  5. Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

    2017-01-01

    Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

  6. Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkire, Blake C; Shrime, Mark G; Dare, Anna J; Vincent, Jeffrey R; Meara, John G

    2015-04-27

    The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives. We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches. During 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account

  7. Confronting the Economic Model with the Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2006-01-01

    methods. When this is not the case, but likelihood methods are applied nonetheless, the result is incorrect inference. In his paper we illustrate the problem of possible incorrect inference with a recent application of a DSGE model to US data (Ireland, 2004). Specifically, this paper discusses two broad...

  8. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  9. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING INNOVATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.V. Makarov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents one of the mathematical tools for modeling innovation processes. With the help of Kondratieff long waves can define innovation cycles. However, complexity of the innovation system implies a qualitative description. The article describes the problems of this area of research.

  10. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  11. Economic evaluation of small modular nuclear reactors and the complications of regulatory fee structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegel, Benjamin; Quinn, Jason C.

    2017-01-01

    Carbon emission concerns and volatility in fossil fuel resources have renewed world-wide interest in nuclear energy as a solution to growing energy demands. Several large nuclear reactors are currently under construction in the United States, representing the first new construction in over 30 years. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have been in design for many years and offer potential technical and economic advantages compared with traditionally larger reactors. Current SMR capital and operational expenses have a wide range of uncertainty. This work evaluates the potential for SMRs in the US, develops a robust techno-economic assessment of SMRs, and leverages the model to evaluate US regulatory fees structures. Modeling includes capital expenses of a factory facility and capital and operational expenses with multiple scenarios explored through a component-level capital cost model. Policy regarding the licensing and regulation of SMRs is under development with proposed annual US regulatory fees evaluated through the developed techno-economic model. Results show regulatory fees are a potential barrier to the economic viability of SMRs with an alternate fee structure proposed and evaluated. The proposed fee structure is based on the re-distribution of fees for all nuclear reactors under a single structure based on reactor thermal power rating. - Highlights: • Potential demand for new small modular nuclear power in the US is established. • Capital costs are broken down on component level and include factory production. • US regulatory fees structures are evaluated, results show potential barrier. • An additional fee structure is proposed and compared with current US fee structures.

  12. Experimental and economical evaluation of a novel biogas digester

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajendran, Karthik; Aslanzadeh, Solmaz; Johansson, Fredrik; Taherzadeh, Mohammad J.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Textile biogas digester was tested with synthetic nutrients and MSW. • Economical evaluation was made with replacement of LPG and kerosene. • The investment is positive until the price of fuel goes down. • Sensitivity analysis was performed to check the stability of the digester. - Abstract: Many developing countries face an energy demand to satisfy the daily needs of the people. Household biogas digesters are among the interesting solutions to meet the energy demands for cooking and lighting, and at the same time taking care of the kitchen wastes. In this study, a novel textile-based biogas digester was developed. The digester was evaluated for biogas production from a synthetic nutrient and an organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW) as substrates for more than a year. The obtained biogas productivity in both experiments was 570 L/kgVS/day, which indicates that the digester is as efficient in handling of OFMSW as the synthetic nutrients. Based on the obtained biogas production data, the techno-economic evaluation and sensitivity analysis for the process were performed, replacing LPG and kerosene consumption with biogas in households. A 2-m 3 digester can supply the fuel needed for cooking for a family of 4–6 people. The sum of investment and 15-years operational costs of this digester was 656 USD, which can be compared with 1455 USD for subsidized-LPG and 975 USD for kerosene, respectively. The results from the sensitivity analysis show that it was a positive investment, unless the price of kerosene goes down to less than 0.18 USD/L

  13. Evaluating topic models with stability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, A

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Topic models are unsupervised techniques that extract likely topics from text corpora, by creating probabilistic word-topic and topic-document associations. Evaluation of topic models is a challenge because (a) topic models are often employed...

  14. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF CO2 SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES; SEMIANNUAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bert R. Bock; Richard G. Rhudy; David E. Nichols

    2001-01-01

    In order to plan for potential CO(sub 2) mitigation mandates, utilities need better information on CO(sub 2) mitigation options, especially carbon sequestration options that involve non-utility operations. One of the major difficulties in evaluating CO(sub 2) sequestration technologies and practices, both geologic storage of captured CO(sub 2) and storage in biological sinks, is obtaining consistent, transparent, accurate, and comparable economics. This project is comparing the economics of major technologies and practices under development for CO(sub 2) sequestration, including captured CO(sub 2) storage options such as active oil reservoirs, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, deep aquifers, coal beds, and oceans, as well as the enhancement of biological sinks such as forests and croplands. An international group of experts has been assembled to compare on a consistent basis the economics of this diverse array of CO(sub 2) sequestration options. Designs and data collection are nearly complete for each of the CO(sub 2) sequestration options being compared. Initial spreadsheet development has begun on concepts involving storage of captured CO(sub 2). No significant problems have been encountered, but some additional outside expertise will be accessed to supplement the team's expertise in the areas of life cycle analysis, oil and gas exploration and production, and comparing CO(sub 2) sequestration options that differ in timing and permanence of CO(sub 2) sequestration. Plans for the next reporting period are to complete data collection and a first approximation of the spreadsheet. We expect to complete this project on time and on budget

  15. Evaluation of energy economics of solar resorts on the Red Sea in Egypt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Modet, Georgei

    2011-10-28

    This thesis investigates the energy performance of resorts in Egypt. The expansive tourism development results in higher demands of energy whilst increasing the burden on the country's economy. The objective is to evaluate solar resorts versus the conventional design in terms of energy, economic and environmental performances. An energy audit is conducted among five stars resorts in Sharm el Sheikh. A self developed evaluation model using environmental life cycle costing is used to evaluate the conventional resort versus the solar resort concept. The thesis concludes with the discussion of the results and recommendations for encouraging the use of renewable energy in the hotel sector in Egypt.

  16. EVALUATION OF SMALL BUSINESS INFLUENCE ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena Zvarych

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to study the role and assess the small business development influence on the economic development of the region. Methods. Theoretical and methodological foundations of the research draw up the scientists’ works on the problems of economic development of the regions. During the scientific research, a complex of such methods was used: generalization and scientific abstraction – in order to specify the conceptualcategorical instrument and identify characteristics of the small business; monographic – in case of highlighting the scientists’ views on the investigated problems; comparative analysis – when identifying features of small business influence on the economic development of the region; mathematical modelling in economics – to develop the methodology for the evaluation of small business development influence on the economic development of the region. Results. Special aspects of small business functioning as a factor of the economic development of the region that accommodates economic growth, the improvement of the product quality and social indicators of development, formation of the middle class, decrease of the unemployment rate, increase of the population living standards are researched. The ambiguity of approaches to the small business definition is established, the characteristic feature of which, in most cases, is the number of employees. However, the small business is distinguished for industrial enterprises and service-oriented companies, based on the structure of management, and also taking into account the self-regulation of small enterprises or their relations to the large enterprises or industrial group of companies. It is established that criteria for the evaluation of the efficiency of small business enterprises can be: increase in the entrepreneurship development rates, minimization of material and social losses of the society, increasing the share of small business in GDP formation

  17. [Measurement and health economic evaluation of informal care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zrubka, Zsombor

    2017-09-01

    Informal care is non-financed care outside the realm of formal healthcare, which represents an increasing challenge for aging societies. Informal care has frequently been neglected in health economic analyses, while in recent years its coverage has increased considerably in the international scientific literature. This review summarizes the methodology of the health-economic assessment of informal care, including the objective and subjective metrics of caregiver burden, its financial and non-financial valuation and practical applications, with special emphasis on the introduction of care-related quality of life instruments (e.g. Care Related Quality of Life - CarerQoL instrument). Care-related quality of life is a different entity from health-related quality of life, the two cannot be combined, so their joint evaluation requires multi-criteria decision analysis methods. Therefore, it is important to determine the societal preferences of care-related quality of life versus health-related quality of life, and map the relationship of care-related quality of life with time. The local validation of tools measuring care-related quality of life, its more widespread practical application and the analysis of its effect on decision making are also important part of the future research agenda. Orv Hetil. 2017; 158(35): 1363-1372.

  18. Economic evaluation of occupational safety preventive measures in a hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Delfina G; Arezes, Pedro M; Afonso, Paulo

    2015-01-01

    When an organization performs an integrated analysis of risks through its Occupational Health and Safety Management System, several steps are suggested to address the implications of the identified risks. Namely, the organization should make a detailed analysis of the monetary impact for the organization of each of the preventive measures considered. However, it is also important to perform an analysis of the impact of each measure on society (externalities). The aim of this paper is to present a case study related to the application of the proposed economic evaluation methodology. An analysis of the work accidents in a hospital has been made. Three of the major types of accidents have been selected: needle stings, falls and excessive strain. Following the risk assessment, some preventive measures have been designed. Subsequently, the Benefit/Cost ratio (B/C) of these measures has been calculated, both in financial terms (from the organization's perspective) and in economic terms (including the benefits for the worker and for the Society). While the financial ratio is only advantageous in some cases, when the externalities are taken into account, the B/C ratio increases significantly. It is important to consider external benefits to make decisions concerning the implementation of preventive measures in Occupational Health and Safety projects.

  19. Operative and economic evaluation of a 'Laser Printer Multimodality' System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Battaglia, G.; Moscatelli, G.; Maroldi, R.; Chiesa, A.

    1991-01-01

    The increasing application of digital techniques to diagnostic imaging is causing significant changes in several related activities, such as a reproduction of digital images on film. In the Department of Diagnostic Imaging of the University of Brescia, about 70% of the whole of images are produced by digital techniques; at present, most of these images are reproduced on film with a Multimodality System interfacing CT, MR, DSA, and DR units with a single laser printer. Our analysis evaluates the operative and economics aspects of image reproduction, by comparing the 'single cassette' multiformat Camera and the Laser Printer Multimodality SAystem. Our results point out the advantages obtained by reproducing images with a Laser Printer Multimodality System: outstanding quality, reproduction of multiple originals, and marked reduction in the time needed for both image archiving and film handling. The Laser Printer Multimodality System allows over 5 hours/day to be saved -that is to say the working day of an operator, who can be thus shifted to other functions. The important economic aspect of the reproduction of digital images on film proves the Laser Printer Multimodality System to have some advantage over Cameras

  20. Migration modelling in the New Economic Geography

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho Pérez, Maria del Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The benchmark of this paper is the Fujita and Thisse (2002) core-periphery model, which adds a R&D sector with skilled labor to create new varieties for the modern sector. The number of R&D firms increases not only with the number of existing patents and knowledge spillovers but also with the number of skilled workers who can migrate and choose theregion offering the better lifetime salary.The main objective of the present work is to analyse the long-term consequences of the choice of the mig...

  1. Fuzzy logic approach for energetic and economic evaluation of hydroelectric projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliev, Atanas M.

    2003-01-01

    A mathematical model for energetic and economic evaluation of hydroelectric projects is developed. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is that the model considers uncertainty and vagueness which appears during the decision making process. Due to modeling of variables that are non statistical in their character, fuzzy logic approach is fully incorporated in the model. The first step in energetic evaluation of the hydro power projects is determination of the characteristic of the efficiency of the units to be installed in hydro power plants. For this purpose the model which uses the best characteristics of Artificial Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is applied. The method is tested on real systems: HPP Tikves- the power plant in operation and HPP Kozjak - the power plant in construction. The results obtained from practical implementation show that the proposed approach gives superior results than classical polynomial approximation. The model for determining the consumption characteristic of hydro power plant is developed by Sugeno Fuzzy Logic System with polynomials in the consequent part of the rules. Model takes into account the variable gross head of HPP, as well as, the number of units which will be in operation for given output. Modeling of the gross head and power output are performed by expert's design membership functions. This model is practically applied on HPP Tikves for determination of the consumption characteristic for several gross head. The plausible yearly production of electricity from hydro power project, which is important for estimation of the benefit from the project, is calculated by mixed fuzzy-statistical model. hi this approach fuzzy set of the inflow is constructed according to the statistical parameters. The calculation of the production of electricity is realized for a several hydrological conditions which are described by linguistic variables. Finally, Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System with fuzzy number in consequent part

  2. Methodology for the economic evaluation of cogeneration/desalination options: A user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    The Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Cogeneration/Desalination Options is suitable for economic evaluations and screening analyses of various desalination and energy source options. The methodology, based on the spreadsheet, includes simplified models of several types of nuclear/fossil power plants, nuclear/fossil heat sources, and both distillation and membrane desalination plants. Current cost and performance data have already been incorporated so that the spreadsheet can be quickly adapted to analyze a large variety of options with very little new input data required. The spreadsheet output includes the levelized cost of water and power, breakdowns of cost components, energy consumption and net saleable power for each selected option. Specific power plants can be modeled by adjustment of input data including design power, power cycle parameters and costs

  3. Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks: A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ultsch, Bernhard; Damm, Oliver; Beutels, Philippe; Bilcke, Joke; Brüggenjürgen, Bernd; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hanquet, Germaine; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark; Knol, Mirjam; von Kries, Rüdiger; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Perleth, Matthias; Postma, Maarten; Salo, Heini; Siebert, Uwe; Wasem, Jürgen; Wichmann, Ole

    2016-03-01

    Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist, several immunization-specific aspects (e.g. indirect effects or discounting approach) are still a subject of debate within the scientific community. The objective of this study was to develop a consensus framework for HEEs of vaccines to support the development of national guidelines in Europe. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify prevailing issues related to HEEs of vaccines. Furthermore, European experts in the field of health economics and immunization decision making were nominated and asked to select relevant aspects for discussion. Based on this, a workshop was held with these experts. Aspects on 'mathematical modelling', 'health economics' and 'decision making' were debated in group-work sessions (GWS) to formulate recommendations and/or--if applicable--to state 'pros' and 'contras'. A total of 13 different aspects were identified for modelling and HEE: model selection, time horizon of models, natural disease history, measures of vaccine-induced protection, duration of vaccine-induced protection, indirect effects apart from herd protection, target population, model calibration and validation, handling uncertainty, discounting, health-related quality of life, cost components, and perspectives. For decision making, there were four aspects regarding the purpose and the integration of HEEs of vaccines in decision making as well as the variation of parameters within uncertainty analyses and the reporting of results from HEEs. For each aspect, background information and an expert consensus were formulated. There was consensus that when HEEs are used to prioritize healthcare funding, this should be done in a consistent way across all interventions

  4. CRISP. Information Security Models and Their Economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, R.; Mellstrand, P.; Tornqvist, B.

    2005-03-01

    The deliverable D1.6 includes background material and specifications of a CRISP Framework on protection of information assets related to power net management and management of business operations related to energy services. During the project it was discovered by the CRISP consortium that the original description of WP 1.6 was not adequate for the project as such. The main insight was that the original emphasis on cost-benefit analysis of security protection measures was to early to address in the project. This issue is of course crucial in itself but requires new models of consequence analysis that still remains to be developed, especially for the new business models we are investigated in the CRISP project. The updated and approved version of the WP1.6 description, together with the also updated WP2.4 focus on Dependable ICT support of Power Grid Operations constitutes an integrated approach towards dependable and secure future utilities and their business processes. This document (D1.6) is a background to deliverable D2.4. Together they provide a dependability and security framework to the three CRISP experiments in WP3

  5. An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

    2010-03-01

    Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

  6. Comparative economic evaluation of environmental impact of different cogeneration technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patrascu, Roxana; Athanasovici, Victor; Raducanu, Cristian; Minciuc, Eduard; Bitir-Istrate, Ioan

    2004-01-01

    Cogeneration is one of the most powerful technologies for reduction of environmental pollution along with renewable energies. At the Kyoto Conference cogeneration has been identified as being the most important measure for reducing emissions of greenhouse effect gases. It has also been mentioned that cogeneration has a potential of reducing pollution with about 180 million tones per year. In order to promote new cogeneration technologies and evaluate the existing ones it is necessary to know and to be able to quantify in economical terms the environmental issues. When comparing different cogeneration technologies: steam turbine (TA), gas turbine (TG), internal combustion engine (MT), in order to choose the best one, the final decision implies an economic factor, which is even more important if it includes the environmental issues. The environmental impact of different cogeneration technologies is quantified using different criteria: depletion of non-renewable natural resources, eutrofisation, greenhouse effect, acidification etc. Environmental analysis using these criteria can be made using the 'impact with impact' methodology or the global one. The results of such an analysis cannot be quantified economically directly. Therefore there is a need of internalisation of ecological effects within the costs of produced energy: electricity and heat. In the energy production sector the externalizations represent the indirect effects on the environment. They can be materialised within different types of environmental impact: - Different buildings of mines, power plants etc; - Fuel losses during transportation and processing; - Effect of emissions in the air, water and soil. Introduction of the environmental impact costs in the energy price is called internalisation and it can be made using the direct and indirect methods. The paper discusses aspects regarding the emissions of cogeneration systems, the eco-taxes - method of 'internalisation' of environmental

  7. Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks : A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ultsch, Bernhard; Damm, Oliver; Beutels, Philippe; Bilcke, Joke; Brueggenjuergen, Bernd; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hanquet, Germaine; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark; Knol, Mirjam; von Kries, Ruediger; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Perleth, Matthias; Postma, Maarten; Salo, Heini; Siebert, Uwe; Wasem, Jurgen; Wichmann, Ole

    Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist,

  8. Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

    2001-01-01

    Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

  9. Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

  10. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  11. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  12. Health economic evaluation in lumbar spinal fusion: a systematic literature review anno 2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soegaard, Rikke; Christensen, Finn B

    2006-01-01

    in clinical practice are present, economic evaluation is needed in order to facilitate the decision-makers' budget allocations. NHS Economic Evaluation Database, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Library were searched. Two independent reviewers (one clinical content expert and one economic content expert) applied...... that the clinical effects are statistically synonymous, it does not support the use of high-cost techniques. There is a great potential for improvement of methodological quality in economic evaluations of lumbar spinal fusion and further research is imperative....

  13. Economic evaluation of volume reduction for Defense transuranic waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, C.M.

    1982-03-01

    The economics of volume reduction of retrievably stored and newly generated DOE transuranic wastes are evaluated by comparing the costs of reduction of the wastes with the savings possible in transportation and disposal. A general approach to the comparison of TRU waste volume reduction costs and cost savings is developed, an initial set of cost data is established, conclusions to support selecting technologies and facilities for the disposal of DOE transuranic waste are developed. Section I outlines the analysis which considers seven types of volume reduction from incineration and compaction of combustibles to compaction, size reduction, shredding, melting, and decontamination of metals. The study considers the volume reduction of contact-handled, newly generated and retrievably stored DOE transuranic wastes. Section II of this report describes the analytical approach, assumptions, and flow of waste material through sites. Section III presents the waste inventories, disposal and transportation savings, and volume reduction techniques and costs. Section IV contains the results and conclusions of the study. The major conclusions drawn from the study are: For DOE sites with a small amount of waste requiring disposal ( 3 /year) the cost of volume reduction is greater than the transportation and disposal savings from volume reduction provided the waste requires little additional preparation to meet transportation and disposal criteria. Wastes that do not meet these criteria require site specific economic analysis outside the general evaluations of this study. For Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, incineration and metal shredding are cost-effective, provided a facility is to be constructed as a consequence of repackaging the fraction of stored waste which may require repackaging and immobilizing chemical process waste to meet disposal criteria

  14. Discounting in the economic evaluation of health care interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahn, M; Gafni, A

    1993-05-01

    Do economic theories that underlie discounting have specific implications for program evaluation in health? In this study, both the contemporary practice and the theoretical foundations of discounting are reviewed. The social discount rate controversy is considered, and the two major concepts (i.e., opportunity cost and time preference) involved in the formulation of a social discount rate are outlined. Also described are the arguments for discounting proposed by thinkers in non-economic disciplines. Finally, the implications of choosing a discount rate for evaluation of individual health care programs are considered. It is argued that the conventional practice of discounting all health care programs at a rate of 5% may not consistently reflect societal or individual preference. Specific recommendations arising from this paper are: 1) given the considerable disagreement at the theoretical level as to the appropriate social discount rate, analysts should be specific about what theoretical approach underlies their choice of rate, especially when the analytic result is sensitive to the discount rate; 2) the discount rate chosen should be appropriate for the perspective of the analysis (social vs. individual vs. institutional, etc.); 3) when appropriate, measures should be taken to avoid double discounting, because some health related outcome measures already incorporate individuals' time preference; and 4) it is suggested that the political process may serve as the appropriate means of reflecting social values in the choice of a discount rate. In addition, the authors argue that a consensus conference approach, with political participation, offers a flexible, pragmatic, and explicit way of synthesizing the empirical, normative, and ethical considerations that underlie choice of a discount rate.

  15. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  16. CHART in lung cancer: Economic evaluation and incentives for implementation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lievens, Yolande; Kesteloot, Katrien; Bogaert, Walter van den

    2005-01-01

    Background and purpose: To investigate the financial consequences and the impact on daily implementation of CHART in lung cancer. Patients and methods: A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis were performed using Markov models, comparing the early and delayed costs and effects of CHART for NSCLC over a 4-year time span from a societal viewpoint. The outcome estimates were based on the CHART literature, the cost estimates on the standard practice of the Leuven University Hospitals, the radiotherapy costs being derived from an activity-based costing (ABC) programme developed in the department. Results: The additional societal cost per life-year gained was EURO 9164, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year EURO 11,576. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results, the incremental cost-utility ratio remaining well under 20,000 EURO /QALY in all tested circumstances. The threshold analyses found the results of the study to be sensitive to the cost of CHART and to the quality of life after treatment. More specifically, standard treatment would become the optimal treatment if CHART would have a higher cost or would result in more long-term side effects. Conclusion: CHART should not be denied to patients with NSCLC on the basis of clinical or economic arguments. Other factors such as socio-economical, institutional, practical departmental and physician-bound barriers most probably explain the lack of implementation into daily practice

  17. Modelling the economic impacts of addressing climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This Power Point report presents highlights of the latest economic modelling of Canada's Kyoto commitment to address climate change. It presents framework assumptions and a snapshot under 4 scenarios. The objective of this report is to evaluate the national, sectoral, provincial and territorial impacts of the federal reference case policy package in which the emissions reduction target is 170 Mt from a business-as-usual scenario. The reference case policy package also includes 30 Mt of sinks from current packages of which 20 Mt are derived from the forestry sector and the remainder from agricultural sector. The report examined 4 scenarios based on 2 international carbon prices ($10 and $50) per tonne of carbon dioxide in 2010. The scenarios were also based on the fiscal assumptions that climate change initiatives and revenue losses would directly affect the governments' balances, or that the government balances are maintained by increasing personal income tax. A comparison of impacts under each of the 4 scenarios to 2010 was presented. The model presents impacts on GDP, employment, disposable income per household, and energy prices. 4 tabs., 4 figs

  18. Evaluation of economic traits in progenies of Nigerian heavy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic evaluation of egg production and biometrical traits of the first filial generation of the Nigerian heavy ecotype chicken was carried out. Heritability and genetic correlations between the traits were estimated using the mixed model least squares and maximum likelihood computer programme of Harvey. Results show an ...

  19. Cascade air stripping: Techno-economic evaluation of a new ground water treatment process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nirmalakhandan, N.; Peace, G.L.; Shanbhag, A.R.; Speece, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    A simple modification of the conventional air-stripping process introduced as cascade air stripping is proposed for efficient and economical removal of semivolatile and low volatility contaminants from ground water. The technical feasibility and economic viability of this process are evaluated using field test results and cost model simulations. The field tests enabled the process model to be verified at various water flow rates ranging from 150 gpm to 400 gpm. The field study also demonstrated the feasibility of the proposed system at a near full-scale level. Cost models were used to compare the proposed process to conventional air stripping and granular-activated carbon adsorption in removing a range of contaminants. This analysis showed that the treatment cost (cents/1,000 gal) of cascade air stripping is about 15% lower than conventional air stripping and about 40% lower than granular-activated carbon adsorption

  20. Solar energy system economic evaluation for Wormser Columbia, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    The Solar Energy System is not economically beneficial under the assumed economic conditions at the sites considered. Economic benefits from this system depend on decreasing the initial investment and the continued increase in the cost of conventional energy. Decreasing the cost depends on favorable tax treatment and continuing development of solar energy technology. Fuel cost would have to increase drastically while the cost of the system would have to remain constant or decrease for the system to become economically feasible.