WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

  2. Corporate investment decisions and economic analysis. Exercises and case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, D.; Pierru, A.

    2005-01-01

    Economic analysis of industrial projects is based on methods which are often simple, sometimes complex, yet always to be applied with rigor. The aim of this book is to help readers assimilate the concepts and methods for investment decision and project evaluation. It offers a wide range of exercises, problems and case studies taken from business, which are the fruit of many years of teaching, consulting and research. Some are direct application of basics, others require a higher degree of reflection for more complex applications. Our approach borrows elements from micro economics, engineering economics and finance theory. While many examples relate to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas, the problems addressed are of broader scope and so are fully applicable to other industry sectors. This book is ideally suited to both professionals and students who seek to master capital budgeting techniques. A review of essential points is proposed at the beginning of each chapter and key methodological elements are recalled in the solutions. (authors)

  3. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  4. Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

    2006-01-01

    This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

  5. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  6. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model. A case......Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused...

  7. Systems Analysis and Design for Decision Support Systems on Economic Feasibility of Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji, S. Arun

    2010-11-01

    This paper discuss about need for development of the Decision Support System (DSS) software for economic feasibility of projects in Rwanda, Africa. The various economic theories needed and the corresponding formulae to compute payback period, internal rate of return and benefit cost ratio of projects are clearly given in this paper. This paper is also deals with the systems flow chart to fabricate the system in any higher level computing language. The various input requirements from the projects and the output needed for the decision makers are also included in this paper. The data dictionary used for input and output data structure is also explained.

  8. The use of decision analysis to evaluate the economic effects of heat mount detectors in two dairy herds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, N B

    1975-03-01

    This paper reports a decrease in the interval from calving to conception in two commercial dairy herds, associated with the use of KaMaR Heat Mount Detectors. An economic analysis of the results uses a neoclassical decision theory approach to demonstrate that the use of heat mount detectors is likely to be profitable, with an expected net return of $154.18 per 100 calvings. The analysis demonstrates the suitability of a decision-theoretic approach to the analysis of applied research, and illustrates some of the weaknesses of "Classical" statistical analysis in such circumstances.

  9. The economic burden of dry eye disease in the United States: a decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Junhua; Asche, Carl V; Fairchild, Carol J

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate both the direct and indirect annual cost of managing dry eye disease (DED) in the United States from a societal and a payer's perspective. A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the annual cost for managing a cohort of patients with dry eye with differing severity of symptoms and treatment. The direct costs included ocular lubricants, cyclosporine, punctal plugs, physician visits, and nutritional supplements. The indirect costs were measured as the productivity loss because of absenteeism and presenteeism. The model was populated with data that were obtained from surveys that were completed by dry eye sufferers who were recruited from online databases. Sensitivity analyses were employed to evaluate the impact of changes in parameters on the estimation of costs. All costs were converted to 2008 US dollars. Survey data were collected from 2171 respondents with DED. Our analysis indicated that the average annual cost of managing a patient with dry eye at $783 (variation, $757-$809) from the payers' perspective. When adjusted to the prevalence of DED nationwide, the overall burden of DED for the US healthcare system would be $3.84 billion. From a societal perspective, the average cost of managing DED was estimated to be $11,302 per patient and $55.4 billion to the US society overall. DED poses a substantial economic burden on the payer and on the society. These findings may provide valuable information for health plans or employers regarding budget estimation.

  10. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for

  11. Economic Recession, Job Vulnerability, and Tourism Decision Making: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Papatheodorou, A.; Pappas, Nikolaos

    2016-01-01

    Occupational uncertainty has a considerable effect upon consumer decisions during a recession, especially with respect to discretionary products and services such as tourism. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the study examines the complex relations among job vulnerability, disposable income for tourism, marketing activities, and price and quality issues for Greek holiday makers returning from their vacations. The article also compares QCA with the two dominant linear methods of a...

  12. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  13. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siri-Udomrat, Thawee

    2002-01-01

    According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying

  14. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  15. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  16. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  17. A conceptual approach for a quantitative economic analysis of farmers’ decision-making regarding animal welfare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gocsik, E.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Lauwere, de C.C.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Decisions related to animal welfare (AW) standards depend on farmer’s multiple goals and values and are constrained by a wide range of external and internal forces. The aim of this paper is twofold, i.e., (1) to develop a theoretical framework for farmers’ AW decisions that incorporates farmers’

  18. Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, J.

    1986-09-01

    The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

  19. ​An Overview on the Principles of Decision Analysis and Economic Modeling in Healthcare and an Introduction to Advanced Software Treeage Pro 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Imani

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives : Decision analysis models are conceptual framework for most of the cost - effectiveness (CEA and cost-utility (CUA analyses and this model increasingly plays an important role in decision making. The aim of this study was to improve the understanding and use of decision analysis and economic modeling techniques with a particular emphasis on decision trees and Markov modeling. Material and Methods : A review of the published literature was performed using the seven search engines and databases which include Web of Science, PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, EconLit, EBSCO and HEED with key words including: Decision Analysis, Health Economic Modeling and TreeAge and their combination to describe the structure, application, and limitations of the more popular decision analytic methods including decision trees, Markov models, and sensitivity analysis in healthcare. Results : We identified 19 relevant published articles. The results indicated that decision analytical models are widely used in economic evaluation of health care interventions with the objective of generating valuable information to assist health policy decision-makers to allocate scarce health care resources efficiently. Conclusion : Decision analytic modeling allows a rational, feasible, scientific, and timely approach to measure the efficiency of new medical technologies in health care by using the best available evidence of different sources to produce detailed estimates of the clinical and economic indicators. Despite TreeAge Pro software increasing use in developing countries as economic modeling studies of various health interventions, unfortunately its role and impact are not known in Iran yet. ​

  20. Economic Decisions in Farm Animal Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    Animal health economics deals with quantifying the economic effects of animal disease, decision support tools in animal health management and further analysis of the management's impact at animal, herd or national level. Scientists from The Netherlands, France and Sweden have since 1988 organised...... informal workshops to exchange their knowledge and expertise in this field of science. This report contains the summary of the presentations given by 12 PhD students and 2 senior scientists of the Animal Health Economics workshops which was held on the 9th and 10th of November, 2006 at the Research Centre...... Foulum in Denmark. Different disciplines and approaches within Animal Health Economics are dealt with by the different scientists and the report contains a variety of novel results and projects. The resulting discussion is summarized in the report....

  1. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L.; Buskens, Erik

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of

  2. THE METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Solopenko

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The necessity of economic ground of administrative decisions related to the operation, staff, financial, investment, information & telecommunication, innovative, marketing and international economic activities of an aviation enterprise is determined foe such an enterprise, and the procedure of economic substantiation of administrative decisions with use of economico-mathematical modelling in automated control system (ACS for an aviation enterprise is implemented.

  3. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  4. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  5. Understanding consumer decisions using behavioural economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zandstra, E.H.; Miyapuram, K.P.; Tobler, P.N.; Pammi, C.; Srinivasan, N.

    2013-01-01

    People make many decisions throughout the day involving finances, food and health. Many of these decisions involve considering alternatives that will occur at some point in the future. Behavioural economics is a field that studies how people make these decisions (Camerer, 1999)[[Au: The reference

  6. Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.

    1979-03-01

    The methodology used to arrive at the conclusions in the U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22 with respect to the economics of fast breeders relative to LWR's is developed in detail in this contribution. In addition, sample calculations of the total levelized power cost of a standard LWR at $40/pound for U 3 O 8 and an FBR at a capital cost of 1.5 times that of an LWR are included. The respective total levalized power costs of the above two examples are 21.29 mills/kwh for the standard LWR and 28.48 mills/kwh for the FBR. It should be noted that the economic data used in these analyses are contained in the U.S. contribution, WG 5A-41

  7. Real analysis with economic applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimization, correspondences, linear and nonlinear functional analysis, fixed-point theory, dynamic programming, and calculus of variations. Efe Ok complements the mathematical development with applications that provide concise introductions to various topics from economic theory, including individual decision theory and games, welfare economics, information theory, general equilibrium and finance, and intertemporal economics. Moreover, a...

  8. Economics and psychology. The framing of decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Schilirò, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    In the Theory of Rational Decision Making the psychological aspects are set aside. This contribution seeks to point out the relevance of psychology into economic decisions. The essay treats the "framing of decisions", which is a pillar of Kahneman's behavioral theory. Framing must be considered a special case of the more general phenomenon of dependency from the representation. The best-known risky choice-framing problem, i.e. the "Asian Disease Problem", is shown where an essential aspect of...

  9. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  10. The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shepperd Sasha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the

  11. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  12. Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

    2014-07-01

    Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior.

  13. Three Essays on Economic Agents' Incentives and Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Dongryul

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on theoretical analysis of economic agents' decision making and incentives. Chapter 1 gives an outline of the subjects to be examined in the subsequent chapters and shows their conclusions in brief. Chapter 2 explores the decision problem of a superordinate (a principal) regarding whether to delegate its authority or right to make a decision to a subordinate (an agent) in an organization. We first study the optimal contracting problem of the su...

  14. Issues in the economic evaluation of influenza vaccination by injection of healthy working adults in the US: a review and decision analysis of ten published studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Thomas J

    2012-05-01

    The objective was to review recent economic evaluations of influenza vaccination by injection in the US, assess their evidence, and conclude on their collective findings. The literature was searched for economic evaluations of influenza vaccination injection in healthy working adults in the US published since 1995. Ten evaluations described in nine papers were identified. These were synopsized and their results evaluated, the basic structure of all evaluations was ascertained, and sensitivity of outcomes to changes in parameter values were explored using a decision model. Areas to improve economic evaluations were noted. Eight of nine evaluations with credible economic outcomes were favourable to vaccination, representing a statistically significant result compared with a proportion of 50% that would be expected if vaccination and no vaccination were economically equivalent. Evaluations shared a basic structure, but differed considerably with respect to cost components, assumptions, methods, and parameter estimates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that changes in parameter values within the feasible range, individually or simultaneously, could reverse economic outcomes. Given stated misgivings, the methods of estimating influenza reduction ascribed to vaccination must be researched to confirm that they produce accurate and reliable estimates. Research is also needed to improve estimates of the costs per case of influenza illness and the costs of vaccination. Based on their assumptions, the reviewed papers collectively appear to support the economic benefits of influenza vaccination of healthy adults. Yet the underlying assumptions, methods and parameter estimates themselves warrant further research to confirm they are accurate, reliable and appropriate to economic evaluation purposes.

  15. Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, M.; Carpaneto, J.; Priori, A.

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff. PMID:29445770

  16. Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoni, A; Rosa, M; Carpaneto, J; Romito, L M; Priori, A; Micera, S

    2018-01-01

    Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff.

  17. Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, Robert

    2006-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

  18. Template-Directed Instrumentation Reduces Cost and Improves Efficiency for Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Economic Decision Analysis and Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLawhorn, Alexander S; Carroll, Kaitlin M; Blevins, Jason L; DeNegre, Scott T; Mayman, David J; Jerabek, Seth A

    2015-10-01

    Template-directed instrumentation (TDI) for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) may streamline operating room (OR) workflow and reduce costs by preselecting implants and minimizing instrument tray burden. A decision model simulated the economics of TDI. Sensitivity analyses determined thresholds for model variables to ensure TDI success. A clinical pilot was reviewed. The accuracy of preoperative templates was validated, and 20 consecutive primary TKAs were performed using TDI. The model determined that preoperative component size estimation should be accurate to ±1 implant size for 50% of TKAs to implement TDI. The pilot showed that preoperative template accuracy exceeded 97%. There were statistically significant improvements in OR turnover time and in-room time for TDI compared to an historical cohort of TKAs. TDI reduces costs and improves OR efficiency. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessing the economic impact of paternal involvement: a comparison of the generalized linear model versus decision analysis trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihu, Hamisu M; Salemi, Jason L; Nash, Michelle C; Chandler, Kristen; Mbah, Alfred K; Alio, Amina P

    2014-08-01

    Lack of paternal involvement has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including infant morbidity and mortality, but the impact on health care costs is unknown. Various methodological approaches have been used in cost minimization and cost effectiveness analyses and it remains unclear how cost estimates vary according to the analytic strategy adopted. We illustrate a methodological comparison of decision analysis modeling and generalized linear modeling (GLM) techniques using a case study that assesses the cost-effectiveness of potential father involvement interventions. We conducted a 12-year retrospective cohort study using a statewide enhanced maternal-infant database that contains both clinical and nonclinical information. A missing name for the father on the infant's birth certificate was used as a proxy for lack of paternal involvement, the main exposure of this study. Using decision analysis modeling and GLM, we compared all infant inpatient hospitalization costs over the first year of life. Costs were calculated from hospital charges using department-level cost-to-charge ratios and were adjusted for inflation. In our cohort of 2,243,891 infants, 9.2% had a father uninvolved during pregnancy. Lack of paternal involvement was associated with higher rates of preterm birth, small-for-gestational age, and infant morbidity and mortality. Both analytic approaches estimate significantly higher per-infant costs for father uninvolved pregnancies (decision analysis model: $1,827, GLM: $1,139). This paper provides sufficient evidence that healthcare costs could be significantly reduced through enhanced father involvement during pregnancy, and buttresses the call for a national program to involve fathers in antenatal care.

  20. Quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 1: Individual participant data meta-analysis and health economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wotherspoon, Lisa M; Boyd, Kathleen A; Morris, Rachel K; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Hodgetts Morton, Victoria; Lavender, Tina; Khan, Khalid; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben W; Riley, Richard D; Norrie, John; Norman, Jane E

    2018-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the QUIDS study is to develop a decision support tool for the management of women with symptoms and signs of preterm labour, based on a validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin (qfFN) concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors. Methods and analysis The study will evaluate the Rapid fFN 10Q System (Hologic, Marlborough, Massachusetts) which quantifies fFN in a vaginal swab. In part 1 of the study, we will develop and internally validate a prognostic model using an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of existing studies containing women with symptoms of preterm labour alongside fFN measurements and pregnancy outcome. An economic analysis will be undertaken to assess potential cost-effectiveness of the qfFN prognostic model. The primary endpoint will be the ability of the prognostic model to rule out spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. Six eligible studies were identified by systematic review of the literature and five agreed to provide their IPD (n=5 studies, 1783 women and 139 events of preterm delivery within 7 days of testing). Ethics and dissemination The study is funded by the National Institute of Healthcare Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA 14/32/01). It has been approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). PROSPERO registration number CRD42015027590. Version Protocol version 2, date 1 November 2016. PMID:29627817

  1. Sensitivity analysis in economic evaluation: an audit of NICE current practice and a review of its use and value in decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andronis, L; Barton, P; Bryan, S

    2009-06-01

    To determine how we define good practice in sensitivity analysis in general and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) in particular, and to what extent it has been adhered to in the independent economic evaluations undertaken for the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) over recent years; to establish what policy impact sensitivity analysis has in the context of NICE, and policy-makers' views on sensitivity analysis and uncertainty, and what use is made of sensitivity analysis in policy decision-making. Three major electronic databases, MEDLINE, EMBASE and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database, were searched from inception to February 2008. The meaning of 'good practice' in the broad area of sensitivity analysis was explored through a review of the literature. An audit was undertaken of the 15 most recent NICE multiple technology appraisal judgements and their related reports to assess how sensitivity analysis has been undertaken by independent academic teams for NICE. A review of the policy and guidance documents issued by NICE aimed to assess the policy impact of the sensitivity analysis and the PSA in particular. Qualitative interview data from NICE Technology Appraisal Committee members, collected as part of an earlier study, were also analysed to assess the value attached to the sensitivity analysis components of the economic analyses conducted for NICE. All forms of sensitivity analysis, notably both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, have their supporters and their detractors. Practice in relation to univariate sensitivity analysis is highly variable, with considerable lack of clarity in relation to the methods used and the basis of the ranges employed. In relation to PSA, there is a high level of variability in the form of distribution used for similar parameters, and the justification for such choices is rarely given. Virtually all analyses failed to consider correlations within the PSA, and this is an area of concern

  2. Quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 1: Individual participant data meta-analysis and health economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, Sarah J; Wotherspoon, Lisa M; Boyd, Kathleen A; Morris, Rachel K; Dorling, Jon; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Hodgetts Morton, Victoria; Lavender, Tina; Khan, Khalid; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben W; Riley, Richard D; Norrie, John; Norman, Jane E

    2018-04-07

    The aim of the QUIDS study is to develop a decision support tool for the management of women with symptoms and signs of preterm labour, based on a validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin (qfFN) concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors. The study will evaluate the Rapid fFN 10Q System (Hologic, Marlborough, Massachusetts) which quantifies fFN in a vaginal swab. In part 1 of the study, we will develop and internally validate a prognostic model using an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of existing studies containing women with symptoms of preterm labour alongside fFN measurements and pregnancy outcome. An economic analysis will be undertaken to assess potential cost-effectiveness of the qfFN prognostic model. The primary endpoint will be the ability of the prognostic model to rule out spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. Six eligible studies were identified by systematic review of the literature and five agreed to provide their IPD (n=5 studies, 1783 women and 139 events of preterm delivery within 7 days of testing). The study is funded by the National Institute of Healthcare Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA 14/32/01). It has been approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). CRD42015027590. Protocol version 2, date 1 November 2016. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  3. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  4. Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

    2013-01-01

    Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

    2008-07-01

    This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

  6. Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

    1999-01-01

    Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

  7. Results of analysis of archive MSG data in the context of MCS prediction system development for economic decisions assistance - case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranek, K.; Jakubiak, B.; Lech, R.; Tomczuk, M.

    2012-04-01

    PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions) is the project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks is to develop the operational forecast system, which is supposed to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. In the frame of this studies system of sudden convective phenomena (storms or tornados) prediction is going to be built. The main authors' purpose is to predict MCSs (Mezoscale Convective Systems) basing on MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) real-time data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May and August 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems related to MCSs. In proposed tracking method first the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit to use a temperature thresholding to define cells is its simplicity. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system (Morel-Senesi algorithm). An automated detection and elimination of some instabilities presented in tracking algorithm was developed. The poster presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near real-time prediction system development.

  8. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  9. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  10. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  11. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  12. The Impact of Depression on Social Economic Decision Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harlé, K.M.; Allen, J.J.B.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    Although the role of emotion in social economic decision making has been increasingly recognized, the impact of mood disorders, such as depression, on such decisions has been surprisingly neglected. To address this gap, 15 depressed and 23 nondepressed individuals completed a well-known economic

  13. Is family planning an economic decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunderink, S R

    1995-09-01

    This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference

  14. Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Resta, Marina

    2016-01-01

    The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

  15. The Effect of Affect on Economic and Strategic Decision Making.

    OpenAIRE

    Benjamin E. Hermalin and Alice M. Isen.

    1999-01-01

    The standard economic model of decision making assumes a decision maker makes her choices to maximize her utility or happiness. Her current emotional state is not explicitly considered. Yet there is a large psychological literature that shows that current emotional state, in particular positive affect, has a significant effect on decision making. This paper offers a way to incorporate this insight from psychology into economic modeling. Moreover, this paper shows that this simple insight can ...

  16. Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S. Murphy

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

  17. Behavioral economics and regulatory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Lisa A; Hammitt, James K

    2011-09-01

    Behavioral economics has captured the interest of scholars and the general public by demonstrating ways in which individuals make decisions that appear irrational. While increasing attention is being focused on the implications of this research for the design of risk-reducing policies, less attention has been paid to how it affects the economic valuation of policy consequences. This article considers the latter issue, reviewing the behavioral economics literature and discussing its implications for the conduct of benefit-cost analysis, particularly in the context of environmental, health, and safety regulations. We explore three concerns: using estimates of willingness to pay or willingness to accept compensation for valuation, considering the psychological aspects of risk when valuing mortality-risk reductions, and discounting future consequences. In each case, we take the perspective that analysts should avoid making judgments about whether values are "rational" or "irrational." Instead, they should make every effort to rely on well-designed studies, using ranges, sensitivity analysis, or probabilistic modeling to reflect uncertainty. More generally, behavioral research has led some to argue for a more paternalistic approach to policy analysis. We argue instead for continued focus on describing the preferences of those affected, while working to ensure that these preferences are based on knowledge and careful reflection. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Decision Analysis Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  19. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  20. Behavioral Economics: A New Lens for Understanding Genomic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Scott Emory; Ulbrich, Holley H; Hepburn, Kenneth; Holaday, Bonnie; Mayo, Rachel; Sharp, Julia; Pruitt, Rosanne H

    2018-05-01

    This article seeks to take the next step in examining the insights that nurses and other healthcare providers can derive from applying behavioral economic concepts to support genomic decision making. As genomic science continues to permeate clinical practice, nurses must continue to adapt practice to meet new challenges. Decisions associated with genomics are often not simple and dichotomous in nature. They can be complex and challenging for all involved. This article offers an introduction to behavioral economics as a possible tool to help support patients', families', and caregivers' decision making related to genomics. Using current writings from nursing, ethics, behavioral economic, and other healthcare scholars, we review key concepts of behavioral economics and discuss their relevance to supporting genomic decision making. Behavioral economic concepts-particularly relativity, deliberation, and choice architecture-are specifically examined as new ways to view the complexities of genomic decision making. Each concept is explored through patient decision making and clinical practice examples. This article also discusses next steps and practice implications for further development of the behavioral economic lens in nursing. Behavioral economics provides valuable insight into the unique nature of genetic decision-making practices. Nurses are often a source of information and support for patients during clinical decision making. This article seeks to offer behavioral economic concepts as a framework for understanding and examining the unique nature of genomic decision making. As genetic and genomic testing become more common in practice, it will continue to grow in importance for nurses to be able to support the autonomous decision making of patients, their families, and caregivers. © 2018 Sigma Theta Tau International.

  1. The role of behavioral economics and behavioral decision making in Americans' retirement savings decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoll, Melissa A Z

    2010-01-01

    Traditional economic theory posits that people make decisions by maximizing a utility function in which all of the relevant constraints and preferences are included and weighed appropriately. Behavioral economists and decision-making researchers, however, are interested in how people make decisions in the face of incomplete information, limited cognitive resources, and decision biases. Empirical findings in the areas of behavioral economics and judgment and decision making (JDM) demonstrate departures from the notion that man is economically rational, illustrating instead that people often act in ways that are economically suboptimal. This article outlines findings from the JDM and behavioral-economics literatures that highlight the many behavioral impediments to saving that individuals may encounter on their way to financial security. I discuss how behavioral and psychological issues, such as self-control, emotions, and choice architecture can help policymakers understand what factors, aside from purely economic ones, may affect individuals' savings behavior.

  2. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis in health economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baio, Gianluca; Dawid, A Philip

    2015-12-01

    Health economic evaluations have recently become an important part of the clinical and medical research process and have built upon more advanced statistical decision-theoretic foundations. In some contexts, it is officially required that uncertainty about both parameters and observable variables be properly taken into account, increasingly often by means of Bayesian methods. Among these, probabilistic sensitivity analysis has assumed a predominant role. The objective of this article is to review the problem of health economic assessment from the standpoint of Bayesian statistical decision theory with particular attention to the philosophy underlying the procedures for sensitivity analysis. © The Author(s) 2011.

  3. ALMR deployment economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.; Fuller, L.C.; Hudson, C.R.

    1993-06-01

    This analysis seeks to model and evaluate the economics of the use of Advanced Liquid Metal Reactors (ALMR) as a component of this country's future electricity generation mix. The ALMR concept has the ability to utilize as fuel the fissile material contained in previously irradiated nuclear fuel (i.e., spent fuel). While not a requirement for the successful deployment of ALMR power plant technology, the reprocessing of spent fuel from light water reactors (LWR) is necessary for any rapid introduction of ALMR power plants. In addition, the reprocessing of LWR spent fuel may reduce the number of high level waste repositories needed in the future by burning the long-lived actinides produced in the fission process. With this study, the relative economics of a number of potential scenarios related to these issues are evaluated. While not encompassing the full range of all possibilities, the cases reported here provide an indication of the potential costs, timings, and relative economic attractiveness of ALMR deployment

  4. Management Information, Decision Sciences, and Financial Economics : a connection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2018-01-01

    markdownabstractThe paper provides a brief review of the connecting literature in management information, decision sciences, and financial economics, and discusses some research that is related to the three cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent

  5. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  6. Gene expression profiling for guiding adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in women with early breast cancer: an evidence-based and economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    In February 2010, the Medical Advisory Secretariat (MAS) began work on evidence-based reviews of published literature surrounding three pharmacogenomic tests. This project came about when Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) asked MAS to provide evidence-based analyses on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three oncology pharmacogenomic tests currently in use in Ontario.Evidence-based analyses have been prepared for each of these technologies. These have been completed in conjunction with internal and external stakeholders, including a Provincial Expert Panel on Pharmacogenomics (PEPP). Within the PEPP, subgroup committees were developed for each disease area. For each technology, an economic analysis was also completed by the Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment Collaborative (THETA) and is summarized within the reports.THE FOLLOWING REPORTS CAN BE PUBLICLY ACCESSED AT THE MAS WEBSITE AT: www.health.gov.on.ca/mas or at www.health.gov.on.ca/english/providers/program/mas/mas_about.htmlGENE EXPRESSION PROFILING FOR GUIDING ADJUVANT CHEMOTHERAPY DECISIONS IN WOMEN WITH EARLY BREAST CANCER: An Evidence-Based and Economic AnalysisEpidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation (EGFR) Testing for Prediction of Response to EGFR-Targeting Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Drugs in Patients with Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: An Evidence-Based and Ecopnomic AnalysisK-RAS testing in Treatment Decisions for Advanced Colorectal Cancer: an Evidence-Based and Economic Analysis To review and synthesize the available evidence regarding the laboratory performance, prognostic value, and predictive value of Oncotype-DX for the target population. CONDITION AND TARGET POPULATION The target population of this review is women with newly diagnosed early stage (stage I-IIIa) invasive breast cancer that is estrogen-receptor (ER) positive and/or progesterone-receptor (PR) positive. Much of this review, however, is relevant for women with early stage (I and II) invasive breast

  7. Emotions and Emotion Regulation in Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Astor, Philipp J.

    2013-01-01

    By employing the methodology of experimental economics, the thesis examines the influence of emotions on decision making in electronic auction markets. Subjects' emotional processes are measured by psychophysiological indicators, helping to decipher the coherence of information, emotion (regulation) and decision making. Four chapters build the main body of the thesis and all are constructed similarly: introduction, design, method, results, limitations, theoretical and managerial implications.

  8. Effects of approach and withdrawal motivation on interactive economic decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harle, Katia; Sanfey, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    Although recent economic models of human decision making have recognised the role of emotion as an important biasing factor, the impact of incidental emotion on decisions has remained poorly explored. To address this question, we jointly explored the role of emotional valence (i.e., positive vs.

  9. Greenhouse effect economic simulation and public decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giraud, P.N.

    2002-03-01

    As the other countries, engaged in the greenhouse effect fight, the France has to evaluate the greenhouse gases emissions and the corrective actions. Meanwhile the today models are not enough impressive. The economic tools authorize today a better evaluation. The technical working Group, presided by Pierre-Noel Giraud, proposes to use them largely and provides four main recommendations. (A.L.B.)

  10. An economic and neuroscientific comparison of strategic decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michl, T.; Taing, S.; Day, M.; Stanton, A.; Welpe, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    Economic decision- making is traditionally based on the assumptions of the predominant existence of Homo economicus (Latin: economic human being). The framework of this theory is known as the Rational Choice Theory (RC Theory). It includes assumptions such as utility maximization, opportunism,

  11. Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Theresa L.

    2012-01-01

    High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

  12. Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-06-01

    Bayesian Decision Theory and Utilitarian Ethics ,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 68: 223-228 (May 1978). Hartsough, Bruce R. “A...1983). Morrell, Darryl and Eric Driver. “ Bayesian Network Implementation of Levi’s Epistemic Utility Decision Theory ,” International Journal Of...elicitation efficiency for the decision maker. Subject Terms Decision Analysis, Utility Theory , Elicitation Error, Operations Research, Decision

  13. Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

    2014-01-01

    In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

  14. Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

    1994-01-01

    Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

  15. Health economic choices in old age: interdisciplinary perspectives on economic decisions and the aging mind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Lisbeth; Phillips, John W R

    2008-01-01

    This chapter offers an integrative review of psychological and neurobiological differences between younger and older adults that might impact economic behavior. Focusing on key health economic challenges facing the elderly, it offers perspectives on how these psychological and neurobiological factors may influence decision-making over the life course and considers future interdisciplinary research directions. We review relevant literature from three domains that are essential for developing a comprehensive science of decision-making and economic behavior in aging (psychology, neuroscience, and economics), consider implications for prescription drug coverage and long-term care (LTC) insurance, and highlight future research directions. Older adults face many complex economic decisions that directly affect their health and well-being, including LTC insurance, prescription drug plans, and end of life care. Economic research suggests that many older Americans are not making cost-effective and economically rational decisions. While economic models provide insight into some of the financial incentives associated with these decisions, they typically do not consider the roles of cognition and affect in decision-making. Research has established that older age is associated with predictable declines in many cognitive functions and evidence is accumulating that distinct social motives and affect-processing profiles emerge in older age. It is unknown how these age differences impact the economic behaviors of older people and implies opportunities for path-breaking interdisciplinary research. Our chapter looks to develop interdisciplinary research to better understand the causes and consequences of age-related changes in economic decision-making and guide interventions to improve public programs and overall social welfare.

  16. Syntactical Analysis of Economics Textbooks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, George K.

    An analysis of the syntax of economics textbooks was undertaken to (1) provide real-language examples of the difficult grammatical structures being taught in an advanced economics reading course, and (2) construct a factual database of the nature of economics textbooks. Five texts representative of those typically used in introductory economics…

  17. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion ISTUDOR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

  18. About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Oleksiy

    2006-01-01

    The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

  19. Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Maite Sara Mashego

    2015-01-01

    Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

  20. Introduction to health economics and decision-making: Is economics relevant for the frontline clinician?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeree, Ron; Diaby, Vakaramoko

    2013-12-01

    In a climate of escalating demands for new health care services and significant constraints on new resources, the disciplines of health economics and health technology assessment (HTA) have increasingly been turned to as explicit evidence-based frameworks to help make tough health care access and reimbursement decisions. Health economics is the discipline of economics concerned with the efficient allocation of health care resources, essentially trying to maximize health benefits to society contingent upon available resources. HTA is a broader field drawing upon several disciplines, but which relies heavily upon the tools of health economics and economic evaluation. Traditionally, health economics and economic evaluation have been widely used at the political (macro) and local (meso) decision-making levels, and have progressively had an important role even at informing individual clinical decisions (micro level). The aim of this paper is to introduce readers to health economics and discuss its relevance to frontline clinicians. Particularly, the content of the paper will facilitate clinicians' understanding of the link between economics and their medical practice, and how clinical decision-making reflects on health care resource allocation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Using fuzzy mathematics for decision making in economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavkov Ivan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, economic models are based on classical mathematics and Aristotelian two-valued logic. Nevertheless, fuzzy mathematics, as a tool for modeling some types of uncertainties and incomplete phenomena, is a more appropriate framework for modeling in economics. New approach has resulted in approximate reasoning and fuzzy control systems, which proved to be an efficient tool for decision making in fuzzy environment.

  2. Economic analysis of fuel treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Evan Mercer; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2012-01-01

    The economics of wildfire is complicated because wildfire behavior depends on the spatial and temporal scale at which management decisions made, and because of uncertainties surrounding the results of management actions. Like the wildfire processes they seek to manage, interventions through fire prevention programs, suppression, and fuels management are scale dependent...

  3. Introduction to Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    R. Preston McAfee

    2005-01-01

    This book presents introductory economics ("principles") material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. M...

  4. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  5. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans.We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively.We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has

  6. Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2014-01-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults’ higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making “traits”—including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants’ greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults. PMID:24040999

  7. Complementary cognitive capabilities, economic decision making, and aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J; Weber, Elke U

    2013-09-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in which they fare better (i.e., crystallized intelligence). Specifically, we hypothesized that older adults' higher levels of crystallized intelligence can provide an alternate pathway to good decisions when the fluid intelligence pathway declines. The performance of older adults relative to younger adults therefore depends on the relative importance of each type of intelligence for the decision at hand. We tested this complementary capabilities hypothesis in a broad sample of younger and older adults, collecting a battery of standard cognitive measures and measures of economically important decision-making "traits"--including temporal discounting, loss aversion, financial literacy, and debt literacy. We found that older participants performed as well as or better than younger participants on these four decision-making measures. Structural equation modeling verified our hypothesis: Older participants' greater crystallized intelligence offset their lower levels of fluid intelligence for temporal discounting, financial literacy, and debt literacy, but not for loss aversion. These results have important implications for public policy and for the design of effective decision environments for older adults.

  8. Neuronal variability in orbitofrontal cortex during economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conen, Katherine E; Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2015-09-01

    Neuroeconomic models assume that economic decisions are based on the activity of offer value cells in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), but testing this assertion has proven difficult. In principle, the decision made on a given trial should correlate with the stochastic fluctuations of these cells. However, this correlation, measured as a choice probability (CP), is small. Importantly, a neuron's CP reflects not only its individual contribution to the decision (termed readout weight), but also the intensity and the structure of correlated variability across the neuronal population (termed noise correlation). A precise mathematical relation between CPs, noise correlations, and readout weights was recently derived by Haefner and colleagues (Haefner RM, Gerwinn S, Macke JH, Bethge M. Nat Neurosci 16: 235-242, 2013) for a linear decision model. In this framework, concurrent measurements of noise correlations and CPs can provide quantitative information on how a population of cells contributes to a decision. Here we examined neuronal variability in the OFC of rhesus monkeys during economic decisions. Noise correlations had similar structure but considerably lower strength compared with those typically measured in sensory areas during perceptual decisions. In contrast, variability in the activity of individual cells was high and comparable to that recorded in other cortical regions. Simulation analyses based on Haefner's equation showed that noise correlations measured in the OFC combined with a plausible readout of offer value cells reproduced the experimental measures of CPs. In other words, the results obtained for noise correlations and those obtained for CPs taken together support the hypothesis that economic decisions are primarily based on the activity of offer value cells. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  9. The Impact of Depression on Social Economic Decision Making [correction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harlé, K.M.; Allen, J.J.B.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    Reports an error in "The impact of depression on social economic decision making" by Katia M. Harlé, John J. B. Allen and Alan G. Sanfey (Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 2010[May], Vol 119[2], 440-446). In the article, the last revision received date printed on the final page of the article was

  10. Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data: Connections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2018-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of some connecting literature in Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data. We then discuss some research that is related to the six cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent

  11. Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Mengarelli

    Full Text Available In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

  12. Life extension economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smithling, A.P.

    1992-01-01

    Life extension economic analyses of fossil fueled power plants need the development of consistent methods which consider the capital costs associated with component replacement or repair and estimates of normal station capital expenditures over the units remaining life. In order to link capital and production costs, Niagra Mohawk Power Corp. develops most and worst cases. A most case includes capital components that would definitely need replacement or modification for life extension. The worst case scenario contains must case capital costs plus various components which may need replacement or modification. In addition, two forecasted conditions are used, base case capacity and low capacity

  13. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B.

    2006-12-01

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics

  14. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  15. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

    1980-09-01

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  16. Decision-theoretic approaches to non-knowledge in economics

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlova, Ekaterina; van Elst, Henk

    2014-01-01

    We review two strands of conceptual approaches to the formal representation of a decision maker's non-knowledge at the initial stage of a static one-person, one-shot decision problem in economic theory. One focuses on representations of non-knowledge in terms of probability measures over sets of mutually exclusive and exhaustive consequence-relevant states of Nature, the other deals with unawareness of potentially important events by means of sets of states that are less complete than the ful...

  17. Future Tense and Economic Decisions: Controlling for Cultural Evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Seán G; Winters, James; Chen, Keith

    2015-01-01

    A previous study by Chen demonstrates a correlation between languages that grammatically mark future events and their speakers' propensity to save, even after controlling for numerous economic and demographic factors. The implication is that languages which grammatically distinguish the present and the future may bias their speakers to distinguish them psychologically, leading to less future-oriented decision making. However, Chen's original analysis assumed languages are independent. This neglects the fact that languages are related, causing correlations to appear stronger than is warranted (Galton's problem). In this paper, we test the robustness of Chen's correlations to corrections for the geographic and historical relatedness of languages. While the question seems simple, the answer is complex. In general, the statistical correlation between the two variables is weaker when controlling for relatedness. When applying the strictest tests for relatedness, and when data is not aggregated across individuals, the correlation is not significant. However, the correlation did remain reasonably robust under a number of tests. We argue that any claims of synchronic patterns between cultural variables should be tested for spurious correlations, with the kinds of approaches used in this paper. However, experiments or case-studies would be more fruitful avenues for future research on this specific topic, rather than further large-scale cross-cultural correlational studies.

  18. Approximate reasoning in decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, M M; Sanchez, E

    1982-01-01

    The volume aims to incorporate the recent advances in both theory and applications. It contains 44 articles by 74 contributors from 17 different countries. The topics considered include: membership functions; composite fuzzy relations; fuzzy logic and inference; classifications and similarity measures; expert systems and medical diagnosis; psychological measurements and human behaviour; approximate reasoning and decision analysis; and fuzzy clustering algorithms.

  19. Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baddeley, Michelle

    2010-01-27

    Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour as either rational or not rational, is too narrow and stark. Behaviour may reflect an interaction of cognitive and emotional factors and this can be captured more effectively using an approach that focuses on the interplay of different decision-making systems. In understanding the mechanisms affecting economic and financial decision-making, an interdisciplinary approach is needed which incorporates ideas from a range of disciplines including sociology, economic psychology, evolutionary biology and neuroeconomics.

  20. Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

    2014-10-01

    Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with ...

  2. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that

  3. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

    2009-10-01

    What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research.

  4. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  5. The use of economic evaluations in NHS decision-making: a review and empirical investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, I; McIver, S; Moore, D; Bryan, S

    2008-04-01

    To determine the extent to which health economic information is used in health policy decision-making in the UK, and to consider factors associated with the utilisation of such research findings. Major electronic databases were searched up to 2004. A systematic review of existing reviews on the use of economic evaluations in policy decision-making, of health and non-health literature on the use of economic analyses in policy making and of studies identifying actual or perceived barriers to the use of economic evaluations was undertaken. Five UK case studies of committees from four local and one national organisation [the Technology Appraisal Committee of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)] were conducted. Local case studies were augmented by documentary analysis of new technology request forms and by workshop discussions with members of local decision-making committees. The systematic review demonstrated few previous systematic reviews of evidence in the area. At the local level in the NHS, it was an exception for economic evaluation to inform technology coverage decisions. Local decision-making focused primarily on evidence of clinical benefit and cost implications. And whilst information on implementation was frequently requested, cost-effectiveness information was rarely accessed. A number of features of the decision-making environment appeared to militate against emphasis on cost-effectiveness analysis. Constraints on the capacity to generate, access and interpret information, led to a minor role for cost-effectiveness analysis in the local decision-making process. At the national policy level in the UK, economic analysis was found to be highly integrated into NICE's technology appraisal programme. Attitudes to economic evaluation varied between committee members with some significant disagreement and extraneous factors diluted the health economics analysis available to the committee. There was strong evidence of an ordinal

  6. Economic decision-making compared with an equivalent motor task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R; Maloney, Laurence T

    2009-04-14

    There is considerable evidence that human economic decision-making deviates from the predictions of expected utility theory (EUT) and that human performance conforms to EUT in many perceptual and motor decision tasks. It is possible that these results reflect a real difference in decision-making in the 2 domains but it is also possible that the observed discrepancy simply reflects typical differences in experimental design. We developed a motor task that is mathematically equivalent to choosing between lotteries and used it to compare how the same subject chose between classical economic lotteries and the same lotteries presented in equivalent motor form. In experiment 1, we found that subjects are more risk seeking in deciding between motor lotteries. In experiment 2, we used cumulative prospect theory to model choice and separately estimated the probability weighting functions and the value functions for each subject carrying out each task. We found no patterned differences in how subjects represented outcome value in the motor and the classical tasks. However, the probability weighting functions for motor and classical tasks were markedly and significantly different. Those for the classical task showed a typical tendency to overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities, and those for the motor task showed the opposite pattern of probability distortion. This outcome also accounts for the increased risk-seeking observed in the motor tasks of experiment 1. We conclude that the same subject distorts probability, but not value, differently in making identical decisions in motor and classical form.

  7. Fast breeder reactor decision: an analysis of limits and the limits of analysis. A study prepared for the use of the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Ninety-Fourth Congress, Second Session

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Decisions on the development of the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR), which may involve nontransferable gains for current generations and major losses for future generations cannot be determined on a cost-benefit basis. Several cost-benefit analyses of the LMFBR are reviewed. With only one exception, all major analyses compare LMFBR futures with non-LMFBR futures and consider only the energy supply aspect of alternatives. The Manne study, however, compares peak-load pricing of electricity and points out that removal of distortions in energy pricing has greater economic benefits than economic losses due to delays in introducing the LMFBR. Revised price structures for electricity could have a larger future payoff than rapid LMFBR development. Constraints on LMFBR development, such as resource supplies, technological development, licensing, siting, and waste disposal, may have been underestimated. Appropriate institutions and procedures for nuclear decision making must be defined

  8. A FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION AS A CONDITION OF CORPORATE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliia Bieliaieva

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to substantiate, on the real figures, the need for enterprise’s financial and economic activities analysis as a condition of management decisions making to achieve the success of the company. Methodology. The research is based on a comparison and analysis of data from the organization top management. So using matrix analysis in the paper, the financial and economic activities effectiveness is evaluated. Based on these calculations, it is possible to make conclusions about the necessity of an identified management decisions regarding the future activity of the company. Results. Daily managers of various function levels accept hundreds and thousands of decisions regarding seemingly slight problems of the organization in general. At the same time, every such a decision, especially relating to the activity of the whole structure, should be clearly justified. Such a need stems from the fact that every decision leads to certain consequences. If there is a need to make a decision relating to the future of the enterprise (e.g., embodiment, reorganization, etc., it should be based on the data of the entire structure. And that is generally very difficult to do. Many factors complicate the possibility of comprehensive evaluation of the company’s activity. At the same time, analysis of basic indicators will provide the specialist with some directions according to which the priority of the analysis can be indicated and appropriate management decision can be made. Practical implications. It is built an effectiveness matrix of financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Analysis of financial and economic activities makes it possible to design necessary strategic and tactical plan for the enterprise development, revealing its reserves of production efficiency increasing. So the aim of the paper is the assessment of the effectiveness of financial and economic activities of the company on the base of matrix analysis as a

  9. THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Andreea STROE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

  10. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  11. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F; Sandgren, J [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1998-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  12. Evaluating the quality and use of economic data in decisions about essential medicines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moucheraud, Corrina; Wirtz, Veronika J; Reich, Michael R

    2015-10-01

    To evaluate the quality of economic data provided in applications to the World Health Organization (WHO) Model List of Essential Medicines and to evaluate the role of these data in decision-making by the expert committee that considers the applications. We analysed applications submitted to the WHO Expert Committee on the Selection and Use of Essential Medicines between 2002 and 2013. The completeness of data on the price and cost-effectiveness of medicines was extracted from application documents and coded using a four-point scale. We recorded whether or not the expert committee discussed economic information and the outcomes of each application. Associations between the completeness of economic data and application outcomes were assessed using χ 2 tests. The expert committee received 134 applications. Only eight applications (6%) included complete price data and economic evaluation data. Many applicants omitted or misinterpreted the economic evaluation section of the application form. Despite the lack of economic data, all applications were reviewed by the committee. There was no significant association between the completeness of economic information and application outcomes. The expert committee tried to address information gaps in applications by further review and analysis of data related to the application. The World Health Organization should revise the instructions to applicants on economic data requirements; develop new mechanisms to assist applicants in completing the application process; and define methods for the use of economic data in decision-making.

  13. Marital dissolution: an economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, K A

    1984-01-01

    A longitudinal analysis of factors affecting marital dissolution in the United States is presented using data from the Coleman-Rossi Retrospective Life History. Factors considered include labor force participation of both spouses, wage growth, size of family unit, age at marriage, and educational status. The study is based on the economic analysis approach developed by Gary S. Becker and others.

  14. Health Economics as Rhetoric: The Limited Impact of Health Economics on Funding Decisions in Four European Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franken, Margreet; Heintz, Emelie; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Raftery, James

    2016-12-01

    A response to the challenge of high-cost treatments in health care has been economic evaluation. Cost-effectiveness analysis presented as cost per quality-adjusted life-years gained has been controversial, raising heated support and opposition. To assess the impact of economic evaluation in decisions on what to fund in four European countries and discuss the implications of our findings. We used a protocol to review the key features of the application of economic evaluation in reimbursement decision making in England, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, reporting country-specific highlights. Although the institutions and processes vary by country, health economic evaluation has had limited impact on restricting access of controversial high-cost drugs. Even in those countries that have gone the furthest, ways have been found to avoid refusing to fund high-cost drugs for particular diseases including cancer, multiple sclerosis, and orphan diseases. Economic evaluation may, however, have helped some countries to negotiate price reductions for some drugs. It has also extended to the discussion of clinical effectiveness to include cost. The differences in approaches but similarities in outcomes suggest that health economic evaluation be viewed largely as rhetoric (in D.N. McCloskey's terms in The Rhetoric of Economics, 1985). This is not to imply that economics had no impact: rather that it usually contributed to the discourse in ways that differed by country. The reasons for this no doubt vary by perspective, from political science to ethics. Economic evaluation may have less to do with rationing or denial of medical treatments than to do with expanding the discourse used to discuss such issues. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. FINANCIAL INFORMATION, EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAK ISA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial information has, indisputably, an important effect in economics. To form an effective capital market, financial information must be reliable and accurate. Misleading financial information always has a negative impact on economic decision taken by users. It is known that financial information as the cornerstone of financial markets, can improve economic performance in several ways. Nowadays we are facing economic crisis due to irregularities of presentation of financial statements to users. Misunderstandings cause economic recession. Detection of fraudulent financial information, is an important issue facing the auditing profession. Currently, bankruptcy of companies around the world, leaves millions of people without jobs, this is caused by financial information which is manipulated by companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of errors and manipulation committed in the financial information sector on the real economy. Also one of the purposes of this paper is to analyze error and fraud in financial statements how it effects the real economy and the reasons for committing fraud in financial statements. Also, several suggestions are included in this study about actions that can be taken to prevent errors and manipulation in financial information.

  16. Effects of Age-related Differences in Empathy on Social Economic Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Beadle, Janelle N.; Paradiso, Sergio; Kovach, Christopher; Polgreen, Linnea; Denburg, Natalie; Tranel, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Background: The ways in which aging affects social economic decision-making is a central issue in the psychology of aging. To examine age-related differences in social economic decision-making as a function of empathy, 80 healthy volunteers participated in the Repeated Fixed Opponent Ultimatum Game (UG-R). Previous economic decision-making research has shown that in younger adults empathy is associated with prosocial behavior. The effects of empathy on older adult social economic decision-mak...

  17. An economic theory of patient decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Douglas O; DeMarco, Joseph P

    2005-01-01

    Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making.

  18. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  19. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  20. Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Christopher M.; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H.; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E.; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L.

    2011-01-01

    The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., “Big Five”, positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a “rational” versus an “irrational” response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated t...

  1. [Rational drug use: an economic approach to decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Daniel Marques; da Silva, Marcelo Gurgel Carlos; Sudo, Elisa Cazue; Ortún, Vicente

    2008-04-01

    The present article approaches rational drug use (RDU) from the economical point of view. The implementation of RDU implies in costs and involves acquisition of knowledge and behavioral changes of several agents. The difficulties in implementing RDU may be due to shortage problems, information asymmetry, lack of information, uncertain clinical decisions, externalities, time-price, incentives for drug prescribers and dispensers, drug prescriber preferences and marginal utility. Health authorities, among other agencies, must therefore regularize, rationalize and control drug use to minimize inefficiency in pharmaceutical care and to prevent exposing the population to unnecessary health risks.

  2. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  3. Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Moran, Rani; Moreland, James; Chater, Nick; Usher, Marius; Summerfield, Christopher

    2016-03-15

    According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pressure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is corrupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a "selective integration" policy that discards information about alternatives with momentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against "late" noise that otherwise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of rational choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing.

  4. Economic analysis of fusion breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delene, J.G.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the economic performance of Fission/Fusion Hybrid devices. This work takes fusion breeder cost estimates and applies methodology and cost factors used in the fission reactor programs to compare fusion breeders with Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors (LMFBR). The results of the analysis indicate that the Hybrid will be in the same competitive range as proposed LMFBRs and have the potential to provide economically competitive power in a future of rising uranium prices. The sensitivity of the results to variations in key parameters is included

  5. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  6. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buergenmeier, B.; Ferrier, C.; Ingold, K.; Perret, S.; Baranzini, A.; Germond-Duret, C.; Kypreos, S.; Wokaun, A.; Rafaj, P.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  7. Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macomber, H. L.

    1986-01-01

    An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

  8. Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian

    2017-01-01

    Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

  9. Economic Analysis of Improved Alkaline Water Electrolysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, E-mail: w.kuckshinrichs@fz-juelich.de; Ketelaer, Thomas; Koj, Jan Christian [Forschungszentrum Juelich, Institute for Energy and Climate Research – Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Juelich (Germany)

    2017-02-20

    Alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) is a mature hydrogen production technology and there exists a range of economic assessments for available technologies. For advanced AWEs, which may be based on novel polymer-based membrane concepts, it is of prime importance that development comes along with new configurations and technical and economic key process parameters for AWE that might be of interest for further economic assessments. This paper presents an advanced AWE technology referring to three different sites in Europe (Germany, Austria, and Spain). The focus is on financial metrics, the projection of key performance parameters of advanced AWEs, and further financial and tax parameters. For financial analysis from an investor’s (business) perspective, a comprehensive assessment of a technology not only comprises cost analysis but also further financial analysis quantifying attractiveness and supply/market flexibility. Therefore, based on cash flow (CF) analysis, a comprehensible set of metrics may comprise levelised cost of energy or, respectively, levelized cost of hydrogen (LCH) for cost assessment, net present value (NPV) for attractiveness analysis, and variable cost (VC) for analysis of market flexibility. The German AWE site turns out to perform best in all three financial metrics (LCH, NPV, and VC). Though there are slight differences in investment cost and operation and maintenance cost projections for the three sites, the major cost impact is due to the electricity cost. Although investment cost is slightly lower and labor cost is significantly lower in Spain, the difference can not outweigh the higher electricity cost compared to Germany. Given the assumption that the electrolysis operators are customers directly and actively participating in power markets, and based on the regulatory framework in the three countries, in this special case electricity cost in Germany is lowest. However, as electricity cost is profoundly influenced by political decisions as

  10. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation.

  11. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M.K.; Moon, K.H.; Kim, S.S.; Lim, C.Y.; Song, K.D.; Kim, H.

    2001-12-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate the contribution of nuclear energy to the energy use in the economical way, based on the factor survey performed on the internal and external environmental changes occurred recent years. Internal and external environmental changes are being occurred recent years involving with using nuclear energy. This study summarizes the recent environmental changes in nuclear energy such as sustainable development issues, climate change talks, Doha round and newly created electricity fund. This study also carried out the case studies on nuclear energy, based on the environmental analysis performed above. The case studies cover following topics: role of nuclear power in energy/environment/economy, estimation of environmental external cost in electric generation sector, economic comparison of hydrogen production, and inter-industrial analysis of nuclear power generation

  12. Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

    1995-01-01

    During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

  13. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  14. Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Christopher M; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

    2011-09-01

    The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., "Big Five", positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a "rational" versus an "irrational" response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated that participants with "rational" UG performance (accepting any offer, no matter the fairness) endorsed higher levels of trust, or the belief in the sincerity and good intentions of others, while participants with "irrational" UG performance (rejecting unfair offers) endorsed higher levels of negative affect, such as anger and contempt. These personality variables were the only ones that differentiated the two response patterns-demographic and cognitive factors did not differ between rational and irrational players. The results indicate that the examination of personality and affect is crucial to our understanding of the individual differences that underlie decision-making.

  15. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carle, B.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

  16. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  17. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

    1997-04-01

    If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

  19. Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aude Silvestre

    Full Text Available Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men.

  20. Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men.

  1. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P

    2015-08-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing interventions. The objective of this review is to address key considerations and limitations of current methods as they apply to blood safety. Because a voluntary blood supply is an example of a public good, analyses should be conducted from the societal perspective when possible. Two primary study designs are recommended for most blood safety intervention assessments: budget impact analysis (BIA), which measures the cost to implement an intervention both to the blood operator but also in a broader context, and cost-utility analysis (CUA), which measures the ratio between costs and health gain achieved, in terms of reduced morbidity and mortality, by use of an intervention. These analyses often have important limitations because data that reflect specific aspects, for example, blood recipient population characteristics or complication rates, are not available. Sensitivity analyses play an important role. The impact of various uncertain factors can be studied conjointly in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The use of BIA and CUA together provides a comprehensive assessment of the costs and benefits from implementing (or not) specific interventions. RBDM is multifaceted and impacts a broad spectrum of stakeholders. Gathering and analyzing health economic evidence as part of the RBDM process enhances the quality, completeness, and transparency of decision-making. © 2015 AABB.

  2. Decision Making under Ecological Regime Shift: An Experimental Economic Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kawata, Yukichika

    2011-01-01

    Environmental economics postulates the assumption of homo economicus and presumes that externality occurs as a result of the rational economic activities of economic agents. This paper examines this assumption using an experimental economic approach in the context of regime shift, which has been receiving increasing attention. We observe that when externality does not exist, economic agents (subjects of experimemt) act economically rationally, but when externality exists, economic agents avoi...

  3. An economic decision framework using modeling for improving aquifer remediation design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, B.R.; Gwo, J.P.; Toran, L.E.

    1995-11-01

    Reducing cost is a critical challenge facing environmental remediation today. One of the most effective ways of reducing costs is to improve decision-making. This can range from choosing more cost- effective remediation alternatives (for example, determining whether a groundwater contamination plume should be remediated or not) to improving data collection (for example, determining when data collection should stoop). Uncertainty in site conditions presents a major challenge for effective decision-making. We present a framework for increasing the effectiveness of remedial design decision-making at groundwater contamination sites where there is uncertainty in many parameters that affect remediation design. The objective is to provide an easy-to-use economic framework for making remediation decisions. The presented framework is used to 1) select the best remedial design from a suite of possible ones, 2) estimate if additional data collection is cost-effective, and 3) determine the most important parameters to be sampled. The framework is developed by combining elements from Latin-Hypercube simulation of contaminant transport, economic risk-cost-benefit analysis, and Regional Sensitivity Analysis (RSA)

  4. An analysis of medical decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusted, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

  5. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  6. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

  7. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  8. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. S.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Nam, J. H.; Noh, B. C.; Kim, H. R.

    2008-12-01

    The concerns on the global warming issues in the international community are bringing about a paradigm shift in the national economy including energy technology development. In this connection, the green growth mainly utilizing green technology, which emits low carbon, is being initiated by many advanced countries including Korea. The objective of the study is to evaluate the contribution to the national economy from nuclear energy attributable to the characteristics of green technology, to which nuclear energy belongs. The study covers the role of nuclear in addressing climate change issues, the proper share of nuclear in the electricity sector, the cost analyses of decommissioning and radioactive waste management, and the analysis on the economic performance of nuclear R and D including cost benefit analysis

  9. Acid rain compliance planning using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norris, C.; Sweet, T.; Borison, A.

    1991-01-01

    Illinois Power Company (IP) is an investor-owned electric and natural gas utility serving portions of downstate Illinois. In addition to one nuclear unit and several small gas and/or oil-fired units, IP has ten coal-fired units. It is easy to understand the impact the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) could have on IP. Prior to passage of the CAAA, IP formed several teams to evaluate the specific compliance options at each of the high sulfur coal units. Following that effort, numerous economic analyses of compliance strategies were conducted. The CAAA have introduced a new dimension to planning under uncertainty. Not only are many of the familiar variables uncertain, but the specific form of regulation, and indeed, the compliance goal itself is hard to define. For IP, this led them to use techniques not widely used within their corporation. This paper summarizes the analytical methods used in these analyses and the preliminary results as of July, 1991. The analysis used three approaches to examine the acid rain compliance decision. These approaches were: (1) the 'most-likely,' or single-path scenario approach; (2) a multi-path strategy analysis using the strategies defined in the single-scenario analysis; and (3) a less constrained multi-path option analysis which selects the least cost compliance option for each unit

  10. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

    2017-06-13

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

  11. Data Decision Analysis: Project Shoal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsgren, Frank; Pohll, Greg; Tracy, John

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the most appropriate field activities in terms of reducing the uncertainty in the groundwater flow and transport model at the Project Shoal area. The data decision analysis relied on well-known tools of statistics and uncertainty analysis. This procedure identified nine parameters that were deemed uncertain. These included effective porosity, hydraulic head, surface recharge, hydraulic conductivity, fracture correlation scale, fracture orientation, dip angle, dissolution rate of radionuclides from the puddle glass, and the retardation coefficient, which describes the sorption characteristics. The parameter uncertainty was described by assigning prior distributions for each of these parameters. Next, the various field activities were identified that would provide additional information on these parameters. Each of the field activities was evaluated by an expert panel to estimate posterior distribution of the parameters assuming a field activity was performed. The posterior distributions describe the ability of the field activity to estimate the true value of the nine parameters. Monte Carlo techniques were used to determine the current uncertainty, the reduction of uncertainty if a single parameter was known with certainty, and the reduction of uncertainty expected from each field activity on the model predictions. The mean breakthrough time to the downgradient land withdrawal boundary and the peak concentration at the control boundary were used to evaluate the uncertainty reduction. The radionuclide 137Cs was used as the reference solute, as its migration is dependent on all of the parameters. The results indicate that the current uncertainty of the model yields a 95 percent confidence interval between 42 and 1,412 years for the mean breakthrough time and an 18 order-of-magnitude range in peak concentration. The uncertainty in effective porosity and recharge dominates the uncertainty in the model predictions, while the

  12. Behavioral economic insights into physician tobacco treatment decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leone, Frank T; Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

    2015-03-01

    Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in "next steps" consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of "success" probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Important presuppositions regarding the potential "success" of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors.

  13. Use of economic evaluation in decision making: evidence and recommendations for improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, Steven

    2010-10-22

    Information about the value for money of a medicine as derived from an economic evaluation can be used for decision-making purposes by policy makers, healthcare payers, healthcare professionals and pharmaceutical companies. This article illustrates the use of economic evaluation by decision makers and formulates a number of recommendations to enhance the use of such evaluations for decision-making purposes. Over the last decades, there has been a substantial increase in the number of economic evaluations assessing the value for money of medicines. Economic evaluation is used by policy makers and healthcare payers to inform medicine pricing/reimbursement decisions in more and more countries. It is a suitable tool to evaluate medicines and to present information about their value for money to decision makers in a familiar format. In order to fully exploit the use of economic evaluation for decision-making purposes, researchers need to take care to conduct such economic evaluations according to methodologically sound principles. Additionally, researchers need to take into account the decision-making context. They need to identify the various objectives that decision makers pursue and discuss how decision makers can use study findings to attain these objectives. These issues require further attention from researchers, policy makers, healthcare payers, healthcare professionals and pharmaceutical companies with a view to optimizing the use of economic evaluation in decision making.

  14. Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks : A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ultsch, Bernhard; Damm, Oliver; Beutels, Philippe; Bilcke, Joke; Brueggenjuergen, Bernd; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hanquet, Germaine; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark; Knol, Mirjam; von Kries, Ruediger; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Perleth, Matthias; Postma, Maarten; Salo, Heini; Siebert, Uwe; Wasem, Jurgen; Wichmann, Ole

    Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist,

  15. Can Neuroscience Assist Us in Constructing Better Patterns of Economic Decision-Making?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Lăzăroiu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We draw on outstanding research (Sanfey et al., 2006; McCabe, 2008; Bernheim, 2009; Camerer, 2013; Radu and McClure, 2013; Declerck and Boone, 2016 to substantiate that neuroeconomics covers the investigation of the biological microfoundations of economic cognition and economic conduct, attempts to prove that a superior grasp of how choices are made brings about superior expectations regarding which options are selected, preserves the strictness of economic analysis in defining value-based decision, and associates imaging techniques with economic pattern to explain how individuals decide on a strategy taking into account various possible choices. Neuroeconomics is adequately prepared to regulate the notion of how choices are determined by mental states. The position that will be elaborated in this article is that neuroeconomic patterns are enabled and enhanced in descriptive capacity by psychological outcomes and substantiated in biological processes. Advancement in neuroeconomics takes place when outcomes from distinct procedures are coherent with an ordinary mechanistic clarification of what generates choice, construed by a computational pattern. We will develop this point further by proving that economics improves the concerted effort of neuroeconomics by using its observations in the various results that may stem from the planned and market interplays of diverse participants, and via a series of accurate, explicit, mathematical patterns to construe such interplays and results. Neuroeconomics experiments employ a mixture of brain imaging/stimulation tests advanced in the cognitive neurosciences and microeconomic systems/game theory tests advanced in the economic sciences. Our analyses indicate that neuroeconomics aims to employ the supplementary input gained from brain investigations, associated with the decision maker’s selection, with the purpose of better grasping the cogitation process and to utilize the outcomes to enhance economic

  16. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.

    2004-12-01

    This study evaluated the role of nuclear energy in various aspects in order to provide a more comprehensive standard of judgement to the justification of the utilization of nuclear energy. Firstly, this study evaluated the economic value addition of nuclear power generation technology and Radio-Isotope(RI) technology quantitatively by using modified Input-Output table. Secondly, a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of nuclear power generation was conducted with an effort to quantify the foreign exchange expenditure, the environmental damage cost during 1986-2015 for each scenario. Thirdly, the effect of the regulation of CO 2 emission on the Korean electric supply system was investigated. In more detail, an optimal composition of power plant mix by energy source was investigated, under the assumption of the CO 2 emission regulation at a certain level, by using MESSAGE model. Finally, the economic spillover effect from technology self-reliance of NSSS by Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute was evaluated. Both production spillover effect and value addition spillover effect were estimated by using Input-Output table

  17. Economic and Financial Analysis Tools | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Economic and Financial Analysis Tools Use these economic and . Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model Use these easy-to-use, spreadsheet-based tools to analyze the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the

  18. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Walle, B. van de; Hardeman, F.; Sohier, A.; Soudan, K.

    1996-01-01

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  19. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2004-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

  20. Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Ye; Baldassi, Martine; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

    2013-01-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

  1. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  2. The neural basis of economic decision-making in the ultimatum game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanfey, A.G.; Rilling, J.K.; Aronson, J.A.; Nystrom, L.E.; Cohen, J.D.

    2003-01-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision-making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making.

  3. Irrational Career Decision-Making: Connecting Behavioural Economics and Career Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redekopp, Dave E.

    2017-01-01

    Very frequently, students and clients do not do what they say they will do. Decisions and plans made in counselling sessions are often not enacted. The career development field may be better able to address the chasm between rational decisions and actual behaviour by applying the findings of behavioural economics. Behavioural economics research is…

  4. Some Links Between Game Theory and Decision Theory in Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Dominika Crnjac; Goran Martinovic

    2009-01-01

    Certain optimal strategies based upon game theory are given in this paper. A decision-making function and a risk function are explained. Decision-making criteria are applied for determining best decision-making functions with respect to a specific criterion. Special attention is given to the minimax criterion.

  5. Applying Bayesian decision theory to assess reprocessing economic and social cost-benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heising, C.D.

    1978-01-01

    Bayesian decision theory, combined with conventional systems analysis techniques into the discipline called decision analysis, has been applied in this work to assess economic and social cost-benefits associated with reprocessing nuclear fuel. Particular attention in this paper is given to the models which have been developed to place numerical estimates in dollar terms on the three categories of social risks that have been identified with reprocessing. These categories include: (1) health, environment, and safety, (2) diversion of fissile material, including sabotage, terrorist acts, and subnational diversion, and (3) nuclear proliferation, defined to be a diversion at the national level to obtain weapons capability. The emphasis is placed on the third category, as proliferation risk has not been treated elsewhere in a quantitative fashion; most arguments have in the main been qualitative conjectures put forth by political scientists

  6. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

    2016-01-01

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate......, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect......) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts....

  7. Ego depletion decreases trust in economic decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainsworth, Sarah E.; Baumeister, Roy F.; Vohs, Kathleen D.; Ariely, Dan

    2014-01-01

    Three experiments tested the effects of ego depletion on economic decision making. Participants completed a task either requiring self-control or not. Then participants learned about the trust game, in which senders are given an initial allocation of $10 to split between themselves and another person, the receiver. The receiver receives triple the amount given and can send any, all, or none of the tripled money back to the sender. Participants were assigned the role of the sender and decided how to split the initial allocation. Giving less money, and therefore not trusting the receiver, is the safe, less risky response. Participants who had exerted self-control and were depleted gave the receiver less money than those in the non-depletion condition (Experiment 1). This effect was replicated and moderated in two additional experiments. Depletion again led to lower amounts given (less trust), but primarily among participants who were told they would never meet the receiver (Experiment 2) or who were given no information about how similar they were to the receiver (Experiment 3). Amounts given did not differ for depleted and non-depleted participants who either expected to meet the receiver (Experiment 2) or were led to believe that they were very similar to the receiver (Experiment 3). Decreased trust among depleted participants was strongest among neurotics. These results imply that self-control facilitates behavioral trust, especially when no other cues signal decreased social risk in trusting, such as if an actual or possible relationship with the receiver were suggested. PMID:25013237

  8. Behavioral Economic Insights into Physician Tobacco Treatment Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers-Casey, Sarah; Graden, Sarah; Schnoll, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Rationale: Physicians self-report high adherence rates for Ask and Advise behaviors of tobacco dependence treatment but are much less likely to engage in “next steps” consistent with sophisticated management of chronic illness. A variety of potential explanations have been offered, yet each lacks face validity in light of experience with other challenging medical conditions. Objective: Conduct a preliminary exploration of the behavioral economics of tobacco treatment decision-making in the face of uncertain outcomes, seeking evidence that behaviors may be explained within the framework of Prospect Theory. Methods: Four physician cohorts were polled regarding their impressions of the utility of tobacco use treatment and their estimations of “success” probabilities. Contingent valuation was estimated by asking respondents to make monetary tradeoffs relative to three common chronic conditions. Measurements and Main Results: Responses from all four cohorts showed a similar pattern of high utility of tobacco use treatment but low success probability when compared with the other chronic medical conditions. Following instructional methods aimed at controverting cognitive biases related to tobacco, this pattern was reversed, with success probabilities attaining higher valuation than for diabetes. Conclusions: Important presuppositions regarding the potential “success” of tobacco-related patient interactions are likely limiting physician engagement by favoring the most secure visit outcome despite the limited potential for health gains. Under these conditions, low engagement rates would be consistent with Prospect Theory predictions. Interventions aimed at counteracting the cognitive biases limiting estimations of success probabilities seem to effectively reverse this pattern and provide clues to improving the adoption of target clinical behaviors. PMID:25664676

  9. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    an important element in the political decision process. The analysis provides information about how the society’s resources – from an economic viewpoint – are used in the best possible way, and how costs and benefits are distributed between e.g. the state, the users and the environment. The society does......This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...

  10. Decision analysis for deteriorating structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Val, Dimitri V.; Stewart, Mark G.

    2005-01-01

    Measures that improve durability of a structure usually increase its initial cost. Thus, in order to make a decision about a cost-effective solution the life-cycle cost of a structure including cost of structural failure needs to be considered. Due to uncertainties associated with structural properties, loads and environmental conditions the cost of structural failure is a random variable. The paper derives probability distributions of the cost of failure of a single structure and a group of identical structures when single or multiple failures are possible during the service life of a structure. The probability distributions are based on cumulative probabilities of failure of a single structure over its service life. It is assumed that failures occur at discrete points in time, the cost of failure set at the time of decision making remains constant for a particular design solution and the discount rate is a deterministic parameter not changing with time. The probability distributions can be employed to evaluate the expected life-cycle cost or the expected utility, which is then used in decision making. An example, which considers the selection of durability specifications for a reinforced concrete structure built on the coast, illustrates the use of the derived probability distributions

  11. Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ieva Kekytė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

  12. Decision making from economic and signal detection perspectives: development of an integrated framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Spencer K.; Wormwood, Jolie B.; Barrett, Lisa F.; Quigley, Karen S.

    2015-01-01

    Behavior is comprised of decisions made from moment to moment (i.e., to respond one way or another). Often, the decision maker cannot be certain of the value to be accrued from the decision (i.e., the outcome value). Decisions made under outcome value uncertainty form the basis of the economic framework of decision making. Behavior is also based on perception—perception of the external physical world and of the internal bodily milieu, which both provide cues that guide decision making. These perceptual signals are also often uncertain: another person's scowling facial expression may indicate threat or intense concentration, alternatives that require different responses from the perceiver. Decisions made under perceptual uncertainty form the basis of the signals framework of decision making. Traditional behavioral economic approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that comes from variability in possible outcome values, and typically ignore the influence of perceptual uncertainty. Conversely, traditional signal detection approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that arises from variability in perceptual signals and typically ignore the influence of outcome value uncertainty. Here, we compare and contrast the economic and signals frameworks that guide research in decision making, with the aim of promoting their integration. We show that an integrated framework can expand our ability to understand a wider variety of decision-making behaviors, in particular the complexly determined real-world decisions we all make every day. PMID:26217275

  13. Economic Decision-Making for Coal Power Flexibility Retrofitting and Compensation in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunning Na

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In China, in order to integrate more renewable energy into the power grid, coal power flexibility retrofitting is imperative. This paper elaborates a generic method for estimating the flexibility potential from the rapid ramp rate and peak shaving operation using nonlinear programming, and defines three flexibility elastic coefficients to quantify the retrofitted targets. The optimized range of the retrofitted targets determined by the flexibility elastic coefficients have a reference significance on coal power flexibility retrofitting. Then, in order to enable economic decisions for coal power flexibility retrofitting, we address a profit maximizing issue regarding optimization decisions for coal power flexibility retrofitting under an assumption of perfect competition, further analyzing the characteristic roots of marginal cost equal to marginal revenue. The rationality of current compensation standards for peak shaving in China can also be judged in the analysis. The case study results show that economic decision-making depends on the compensation standard and the peak shaving depth and time. At a certain peak shaving depth and time, with rational compensation standard power plants are willing to carry out coal power flexibility retrofitting. The current compensation standard in Northeast China is high enough to carry out coal power flexibility retrofitting. These research conclusions have theoretical significance for China’s peak shaving compensation standards formulation.

  14. Economic Feasibility Analysis Report. Strategic Mobility 21

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mallon, Lawrence G; Monaco, Kristen; Fetty, George R

    2007-01-01

    .... This multi-disciplinary analysis provides an objective examination of the economic and operational feasibility of a shuttle train intermodal rail operation under various scenarios connecting the San...

  15. Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

  16. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adopting such a Markov decision process approach, the states of a Markov chain represent possible states of demand. The decision of whether or not to produce additional inventory units is made using dynamic programming. This approach demonstrates the existence of an optimal state-dependent EPL size, and produces ...

  17. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, R.L.; Miller, J.W.

    1997-04-01

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ∼50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  18. The contention within health economics: a micro-economic foundation using a macro-economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaxley, I L

    1998-03-01

    Health economists claim to use market economics combined with the micro-economic concepts of opportunity cost and the margin to advise on priority setting. However, they are advising on setting priorities through a macro-economic analysis using the costs of the supplier, thus prioritising the producer and not the consumer as the dynamic of economic activity. For health economists any contention within priority setting is due to lack of data not their confusion over fundamental concepts.

  19. The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

    2014-10-15

    Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

  20. Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

    2017-02-01

    Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

  1. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2015-01-01

    The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  2. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika; Holmqvist, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    just as often poor as good. If the proportion of bad purchase decisions based on misleading information is small enough, perhaps it might be better to direct the authors' attention to other ways of improving the decision environments that consumers encounter. In addition, the eye-tracking study...... provides some insight into how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. The present data show that consumers invested on average of less than 1 s to look at products. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York....

  3. The Risks of Strategic Decisions in the Sphere of Financial and Economic Security of Public-Private Partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solodovnik Olesia O.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying and substantiating the theoretical and methodological aspects of development, analysis and assessment of strategic decisions in the sphere of financial and economic security of public-private partnership (PPP in the context of the risks of their implementation. A study on the essence and characteristics of strategic decisions in the sphere of financial and economic security of PPP has led to the conclusion that each such decision should be considered and assessed in the context of the risks of its implementation, and the risk theory could be seen as the scientific basis for defining strategic alternatives and developing a criteria base for assessing them. The article proposes a list and systematization of the PPP risks that allow to: itemize the risks to the external and internal environment of PPP and to identify the prerequisites and sources of threats to the financial and economic interests of parties to the partnership; analyze and evaluate the strategic alternatives for risk distribution among partners in the context of implications for financial and economic security of PPP; determine the risks of achieving the objectives of the strategy for financial and economic security of PPP and to evaluate alternative strategies in terms of partners; account the potential occurrence and development of systemic risks and threats to the financial and economic security of PPP, as well as the use of complementary protective mechanisms; evaluate the results of a strategy to protect the financial and economic interests of parties to the PPP.

  4. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...... specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport...

  5. Decision making for economic development; A case study of peat and selective alternative energy developments on the island of Newfoundland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodgers, B. (Dept. of Mines and Energy, St. John' s, NF (Canada))

    1994-02-01

    This paper highlights the essential issues and concepts that must be understood and addressed in the performance of sound economic decision making in peat production. The desired result is the identification of a practical, yet thorough, approach to economic analysis. The paper's highlights are summarized by the following nine recommendations: clearly determine the objective; clearly determine the perspective; identify project owners; consider all relevant benefits and all relevant costs; focus on net benefits; consider the opportunity cost of alternative opportunities; take care to avoid double counting; understand and evaluate the relevant risks and recognize that economic success requires global competitiveness. 4 figs., 5 tabs.

  6. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decisions in people with obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmank, Jakob; Murawski, Carsten; Bode, Stefan; Horstmann, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n = 52) completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discount rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before making financial decisions. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity toward changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short. PMID:26528158

  7. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decision-making in obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob eSimmank

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n=52 completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discounting rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before the financial decision. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity towards changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

  8. The Felbertauern landslide of 2013: Traffic disruption, regional economic consequences and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Genovese, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Felbertauern landslide of May 2013 caused the total destruction of approximately 100 meters of road including an avalanche gallery, generating several direct and indirect impacts on the regional-economy. The Felbertauern road, an important traffic arteria for the whole NUTS-3 region East-Tyrol (Austria), was totally blocked for several weeks. Short after the event, regional decision makers were hardly in need for an estimation of the regional-economic impacts of the road blockage to opt for alternatives to reopen the road. So, two weeks after the event, an analysis of the possible effects was carried out using only scattered information and statistical data. The analysis is based on a three-month interruption scenario. Retrospectively the road blockage was only two months. Due to the fact that short after the event no up-to-date data on regional-economics at necessary scales was available, impacts on tourism by analysing overnight stays, additional transportation costs and time losses for the local companies were calculated. Using these numbers, a cost-benefit-analysis was carried out for a projected bypass, a mid-term 1.5 kilometer long route as an alternative to the destroyed road. Finally, the impacts on the local companies were severe, due to additional transportation costs of approx. Euro 1.4 million and Euro 76 000 additional time costs using an alternative approach. The impacts on regional tourism were calculated with Euro 7.7 to 10.7 million - that means 0.6 to 0.8% of the total economic output of the region. The study shows the strong impact of indirect and business interruption costs on regional economies and describes the major problems faced during the study - in particular the low availability of input data. The results of consistent cost assessment are critical for decision makers who are responsible for the development of policies to prevent the impacts on societies.

  9. Public health policy decisions on medical innovations: what role can early economic evaluation play?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartz, Susanne; John, Jürgen

    2009-02-01

    Our contribution aims to explore the different ways in which early economic data can inform public health policy decisions on new medical technologies. A literature research was conducted to detect methodological contributions covering the health policy perspective. Early economic data on new technologies can support public health policy decisions in several ways. Embedded in horizon scanning and HTA activities, it adds to monitoring and assessment of innovations. It can play a role in the control of technology diffusion by informing coverage and reimbursement decisions as well as the direct public promotion of healthcare technologies, leading to increased efficiency. Major problems include the uncertainty related to economic data at early stages as well as the timing of the evaluation of an innovation. Decision-makers can benefit from the information supplied by early economic data, but the actual use in practice is difficult to determine. Further empirical evidence should be gathered, while the use could be promoted by further standardization.

  10. NEW PARADIGM OF ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL AND EXPERT DATA IN PROBLEMS OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Orlov A. I.

    2014-01-01

    The article is devoted to the methods of analysis of statistical and expert data in problems of economics and management that are discussed in the framework of scientific specialization "Mathematical methods of economy", including organizational-economic and economic-mathematical modeling, econometrics and statistics, as well as economic aspects of decision theory, systems analysis, cybernetics, operations research. The main provisions of the new paradigm of this scientific and practical fiel...

  11. Decision Vulnerability Analysis (DVA) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    31 14 Graphical Representation of the Summary Judgments of the Effectiveness, Vulnerability, and Understanding of the Subsystems’ as Judged by...posed several challenges. Numerous organizational typologies have been suggested over the years ( Robbins , 1994), and these typologies are often based...structure and functioning from a typology perspective ( Robbins , 1994), excerpts from a task analysis that described how the analysts currently performed

  12. The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

    2013-12-01

    In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

  13. Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

    2002-01-01

    Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

  14. Economic simulation to support investment decisions in pig farming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Backus, G.B.C.

    1994-01-01

    The study described in this thesis focuses on the development and use of a model that simulates the consequences of long-term investment decisions in pig farming. The thesis is composed of six parts. Chapter 1 deals with a basic review of the literature on strategic planning under risk and

  15. Empirical essays on behavioral economics and lifecycle decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dillingh, Rik

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of four empirical essays that study decisions on insurance, consumption and the accumulation and decumulation of wealth. The studies pay due attention to behavioral factors that may limit rationality, such as complexity and intertemporal choice. The first essay looks at

  16. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross

  17. Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Xie, Linyin

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

  18. Pet Overpopulation: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen Coate; Brian Knight

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...

  19. Spot protein-creatinine ratio and spot albumin-creatinine ratio in the assessment of pre-eclampsia: a diagnostic accuracy study with decision-analytic model-based economic evaluation and acceptability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waugh, Jason; Hooper, Richard; Lamb, Edmund; Robson, Stephen; Shennan, Andrew; Milne, Fiona; Price, Christopher; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Berdunov, Vladislav; Bingham, Jenn

    2017-10-01

    The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines highlighted the need for 'large, high-quality prospective studies comparing the various methods of measuring proteinuria in women with new-onset hypertensive disorders during pregnancy'. The primary objective was to evaluate quantitative assessments of spot protein-creatinine ratio (SPCR) and spot albumin-creatinine ratio (SACR) in predicting severe pre-eclampsia (PE) compared with 24-hour urine protein measurement. The secondary objectives were to investigate interlaboratory assay variation, to evaluate SPCR and SACR thresholds in predicting adverse maternal and fetal outcomes and to assess the cost-effectiveness of these models. This was a prospective diagnostic accuracy cohort study, with decision-analytic modelling and a cost-effectiveness analysis. The setting was 36 obstetric units in England, UK. Pregnant women (aged ≥ 16 years), who were at > 20 weeks' gestation with confirmed gestational hypertension and trace or more proteinuria on an automated dipstick urinalysis. Women provided a spot urine sample for protein analysis (the recruitment sample) and were asked to collect a 24-hour urine sample, which was stored for secondary analysis. A further spot sample of urine was taken immediately before delivery. Outcome data were collected from hospital records. There were four index tests on a spot sample of urine: (1) SPCR test (conducted at the local laboratory); (2) SPCR test [conducted at the central laboratory using the benzethonium chloride (BZC) assay]; (3) SPCR test [conducted at the central laboratory using the pyrogallol red (PGR) assay]; and (4) SACR test (conducted at the central laboratory using an automated chemistry analyser). The comparator tests on 24-hour urine collection were a central test using the BZC assay and a central test using the PGR assay. The primary reference standard was the NICE definition of severe PE. Secondary reference standards were a clinician

  20. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  1. Background effects of emergencies on indicators of economic analysis of enterprise economic activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K.Yu. Polyak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the study of scientific works on the issue of formation and development of organizational and methodological regulations of accounting and analytical support of the economic activity of an enterprise in emergencies, which led to the conclusion about the complex character of the study of theory, methodology and economic analysis of enterprises in various sectors of national economy. The author studies the approaches to the nature and methods of economic analysis that resulted in the presentation of instructional techniques to the economic structure. In assessing the consequences of emergencies, it is necessary to determine their impact on the indices of economic analysis; so, there was the need to define areas resulting index changes as a result of emergency situations by identifying its components which may affect emergencies. After analyzing the data, it was found that the consequences of emergency situations affecting the indices of business analysis and can lead to changes in management decisions of internal and external users.

  2. The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bargur, J.

    1984-01-01

    The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

  3. Economics of young stock rearing decisions on Dutch dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohd Nor, N.B.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing intensiveness of agriculture has contributed to environmental pollution through a higher production of waste materials. The environmental and economic pressures mean that it is nowadays important that milk is produced in a more sustainable way. The young stock rearing enterprise also

  4. Factors influencing high socio-economic class mothers' decision ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    why high socio-economic class women in the Cape Metropole decide ... as barriers to breast-feeding include a lack of knowledge and experience (38%) as well as a lack of facilities at public ... private practising paediatrician in Stellenbosch for face validity. .... While mothers (n = 39; 70.9%) indicated that the facilities at work.

  5. Risk based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators; Risikobasierte wirtschaftliche Optimierung von Investitionsentscheidungen regulierter Stromnetzbetreiber

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John, Oliver

    2012-07-01

    The author of the contribution under consideration reports on risk-based economic optimization of investment decisions of regulated power distribution system operators. The focus is the economically rational decision behavior of operators under certain regulatory requirements. Investments in power distribution systems form the items subject to decisions. Starting from a description of theoretical and practical regulatory approaches, their financial implications are quantified at first. On this basis, optimization strategies are derived with respect to the investment behavior. For this purpose, an optimization algorithm is developed and applied to exemplary companies. Finally, effects of uncertainties in regulatory systems are investigated. In this context, Monte Carlo simulations are used in conjunction with real options analysis.

  6. WOMEN'S BARGAINING POWER IN HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIC DECISIONS: EVIDENCE FROM GHANA

    OpenAIRE

    Doss, Cheryl R.

    1996-01-01

    In this paper, the percentage of assets held by women within the household is used as a measure of women's bargaining power. The assets used in this paper include land, savings, and business assets. Using detailed household survey data from Ghana, I demonstrate that the share of assets owned by women has a significant impact on household expenditure decisions. This provides additional support for the notion that women's bargaining power can be measured, at least in some dimensions, and that w...

  7. Exposing ecological and economic costs of the research-implementation gap and compromises in decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kareksela, Santtu; Moilanen, Atte; Ristaniemi, Olli; Välivaara, Reima; Kotiaho, Janne S

    2018-02-01

    The frequently discussed gap between conservation science and practice is manifest in the gap between spatial conservation prioritization plans and their implementation. We analyzed the research-implementation gap of one zoning case by comparing results of a spatial prioritization analysis aimed at avoiding ecological impact of peat mining in a regional zoning process with the final zoning plan. We examined the relatively complex planning process to determine the gaps among research, zoning, and decision making. We quantified the ecological costs of the differing trade-offs between ecological and socioeconomic factors included in the different zoning suggestions by comparing the landscape-level loss of ecological features (species occurrences, habitat area, etc.) between the different solutions for spatial allocation of peat mining. We also discussed with the scientists and planners the reasons for differing zoning suggestions. The implemented plan differed from the scientists suggestion in that its focus was individual ecological features rather than all the ecological features for which there were data; planners and decision makers considered effects of peat mining on areas not included in the prioritization analysis; zoning was not truly seen as a resource-allocation process and not emphasized in general minimizing ecological losses while satisfying economic needs (peat-mining potential); and decision makers based their prioritization of sites on site-level information showing high ecological value and on single legislative factors instead of finding a cost-effective landscape-level solution. We believe that if the zoning and decision-making processes are very complex, then the usefulness of science-based prioritization tools is likely to be reduced. Nevertheless, we found that high-end tools were useful in clearly exposing trade-offs between conservation and resource utilization. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model.

  9. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.

    1999-12-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  10. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.S.; Parker, M.B.; Omberg, R.P.

    1979-05-01

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U 3 O 8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  11. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Lee, H. M.; Oh, K. B.

    2003-12-01

    This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

  12. Energy economics: impacts on electric utilities' future decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.H.

    1983-01-01

    Despite financial and regulatory pressures that have led electric utilities to slow construction and minimize capital expenditures, Carolina Power and Light Company is proceeding with two new nuclear and two new coal facilities because it believes the commitment to expand must be made in the 1980s. The economic slowdown has given utilities a breathing period, but not enough to allow a complete stop in expansion if the utilities are to be ready for the expected economic growth of the 1990s. Financing this expansion is a slower process for regulated industries and leads to strained relations between customers and suppliers. The two can work together to promote conservation and load management, but higher rates must finance new construction to avoid a shortfall later. The costs of environmentally sound coal combustion and nuclear plant construction must both be reduced to help keep the recovery from being inflationary

  13. Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Do

    2006-01-01

    During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

  14. The BCD of response time analysis in experimental economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiliopoulos, Leonidas; Ortmann, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    For decisions in the wild, time is of the essence. Available decision time is often cut short through natural or artificial constraints, or is impinged upon by the opportunity cost of time. Experimental economists have only recently begun to conduct experiments with time constraints and to analyze response time (RT) data, in contrast to experimental psychologists. RT analysis has proven valuable for the identification of individual and strategic decision processes including identification of social preferences in the latter case, model comparison/selection, and the investigation of heuristics that combine speed and performance by exploiting environmental regularities. Here we focus on the benefits, challenges, and desiderata of RT analysis in strategic decision making. We argue that unlocking the potential of RT analysis requires the adoption of process-based models instead of outcome-based models, and discuss how RT in the wild can be captured by time-constrained experiments in the lab. We conclude that RT analysis holds considerable potential for experimental economics, deserves greater attention as a methodological tool, and promises important insights on strategic decision making in naturally occurring environments.

  15. Economic Analysis of Cyber Security

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallaher, Michael P; Rowe, Brent R; Rogozhin, Alex V; Link, Albert N

    2006-01-01

    .... However, few organizations attempt such analysis for their cyber security mechanisms. Key performance and evaluation metrics are not available, so organizations rely on qualitative assessments...

  16. Economic Analysis of Long Working Hours (Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    OHTAKE Fumio; OKUDAIRA Hiroko

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we set out the economic grounds for restrictions on long working hours and conduct an empirical analysis using surveys from the perspective of behavioral economics. The results of the analysis indicate that, on a year-on-year basis, if state of health improves, the probability of working more than 60 hours per week increases significantly, but that even when state of health deteriorates there is no decrease in the probability of working long hours. Moreover, among male managemen...

  17. Economic analysis of EBT reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, J.T.; Uckan, N.A.; Lidsky, L.M.

    1977-01-01

    In order to establish the economic potential of the Elmo Bumpy Torus (EBT) reactor, two independent system-costing models have been developed. Both models predict capital costs of approximately $400/kW(th). These relatively low costs reflect the simplicity of the EBTR design. In particular, the modular nature of the individual blanket-shield segments, the low costs ''accelerator style'' containment building, high beta, and steady-state operation lead to relatively low reactor costs. A detailed cost breakdown for subsystems is analyzed. High cost and high uncertainty subsystems are identified to direct further emphasis into those areas. The calculated capital costs for the EBT reactor are compared with those costs quoted for tokamak reactors

  18. Cost-of-illness analysis. What room in health economics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarricone, Rosanna

    2006-06-01

    Cost-of-illness (COI) was the first economic evaluation technique used in the health field. The principal aim was to measure the economic burden of illness to society. Its usefulness as a decision-making tool has however been questioned since its inception. The main criticism came from welfare economists who rejected COIs because they were not grounded in welfare economics theory. Other attacks related to the use of the human capital approach (HCA) to evaluate morbidity and mortality costs since it was said that the HCA had nothing to do with the value people attach to their lives. Finally, objections were made that COI could not be of any help to decision makers and that other forms of economic evaluation (e.g. cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit analysis) would be much more useful to those taking decisions and ranking priorities. Conversely, it is here suggested that COI can be a good economic tool to inform decision makers if it is considered from another perspective. COI is a descriptive study that can provide information to support the political process as well as the management functions at different levels of the healthcare organisations. To do that, the design of the study must be innovative, capable of measuring the true cost to society; to estimate the main cost components and their incidence over total costs; to envisage the different subjects who bear the costs; to identify the actual clinical management of illness; and to explain cost variability. In order to reach these goals, COI need to be designed as observational bottom-up studies.

  19. Towards a Theoretical Construct for Modelling Smallholders’ Forestland-Use Decisions: What Can We Learn from Agriculture and Forest Economics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahlil Baker

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Academic research on smallholders’ forestland-use decisions is regularly addressed in different streams of literature using different theoretical constructs that are independently incomplete. In this article, we propose a theoretical construct for modelling smallholders’ forestland-use decisions intended to serve in the guidance and operationalization of future models for quantitative analysis. Our construct is inspired by the sub-disciplines of forestry and agricultural economics with a crosscutting theme of how transaction costs drive separability between consumption and production decisions. Our results help explain why exogenous variables proposed in the existing literature are insufficient at explaining smallholders’ forestland-use decisions, and provide theoretical context for endogenizing characteristics of the household, farm and landscape. Smallholders’ forestland-use decisions are best understood in an agricultural context of competing uses for household assets and interdependent consumption and production decisions. Forest production strategies range from natural regeneration to intensive management of the forest resource to co-jointly produce market and non-market values. Due to transaction costs, decision prices are best represented by their shadow as opposed to market prices. Shadow prices are shaped by endogenous smallholder-specific preferences for leisure, non-market values, time, risk, and uncertainty. Our proposed construct is intended to provide a theoretical basis to assist modellers in the selection of variables for quantitative analysis.

  20. an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2333147

    Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

  1. Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

    2005-01-01

    Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat sealant in preventing a new intramammary infection in a cow free of infection in all quarters of the mammary gland at drying off. However, a potential net loss of over pound20 per cow might occur ...

  2. Effects of Age-related Differences in Empathy on Social Economic Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beadle, Janelle N.; Paradiso, Sergio; Kovach, Christopher; Polgreen, Linnea; Denburg, Natalie; Tranel, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Background The ways in which aging affects social economic decision-making is a central issue in the psychology of aging. To examine age-related differences in social economic decision-making as a function of empathy, 80 healthy volunteers participated in the Repeated Fixed Opponent Ultimatum Game (UG-R). Previous economic decision making research has shown that in younger adults empathy is associated with prosocial behavior. The effects of empathy on older adult social economic decision-making are not well understood. Methods On each of 20 consecutive trials in the UG-R, one player (“Proposer”) splits ten dollars with another player (“Responder”) who chooses either to accept (whereby both receive the proposed division) or reject (whereby neither receives anything). Trait cognitive and emotional empathy were measured using the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. Results UG-R data were examined as a function of age and cognitive empathy. For unfair offers (i.e., offers less than $5), older Responders with high cognitive empathy showed less prosocial behavior and obtained greater payoffs than younger Responders with high cognitive empathy. Conclusions High levels of cognitive empathy may differentially affect economic decision making behavior in younger and older adults. For older adults, high cognitive empathy may be involved in obtaining high financial payoffs while for younger adults it may instead facilitate social relationships. PMID:22237008

  3. Effects of age-related differences in empathy on social economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beadle, Janelle N; Paradiso, Sergio; Kovach, Christopher; Polgreen, Linnea; Denburg, Natalie L; Tranel, Daniel

    2012-05-01

    The ways in which aging affects social economic decision-making is a central issue in the psychology of aging. To examine age-related differences in social economic decision-making as a function of empathy, 80 healthy volunteers participated in the Repeated Fixed Opponent Ultimatum Game (UG-R). Previous economic decision-making research has shown that in younger adults empathy is associated with prosocial behavior. The effects of empathy on older adult social economic decision-making are not well understood. On each of 20 consecutive trials in the UG-R, one player ("Proposer") splits $10 with another player ("Responder") who chooses either to accept (whereby both receive the proposed division) or reject (whereby neither receives anything). Trait cognitive and emotional empathy were measured using the Interpersonal Reactivity Index. UG-R data were examined as a function of age and cognitive empathy. For "unfair" offers (i.e. offers less than $5), older Responders with high cognitive empathy showed less prosocial behavior and obtained greater payoffs than younger Responders with high cognitive empathy. High levels of cognitive empathy may differentially affect economic decision-making behavior in younger and older adults. For older adults, high cognitive empathy may play a role in obtaining high financial payoffs while for younger adults it may instead be involved in facilitating social relationships.

  4. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanfey Alan G

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  5. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and Reward Responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheres, Anouk; Sanfey, Alan G

    2006-10-18

    In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS) which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  6. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Exley Catherine E

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation

  7. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

  8. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Han Myung; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Song, K. D.; Oh, K. B.

    2002-12-01

    This study deals with current energy issues, environmental aspects of energy, project feasibility evaluation, and activities of international organizations. Current energy issues including activities related with UNFCCC, sustainable development, and global concern on energy issues were surveyed with focusing on nuclear related activities. Environmental aspects of energy includes various topics such as, inter- industrial analysis of nuclear sector, the role of nuclear power in mitigating GHG emission, carbon capture and sequestration technology, hydrogen production by using nuclear energy, Life Cycle Analysis as a method of evaluating environmental impacts of a technology, and spent fuel management in the case of introducing fast reactor and/or accelerator driven system. Project feasibility evaluation includes nuclear desalination using SMART reactor, and introduction of COMFAR computer model, developed by UNIDO to carry out feasibility analysis in terms of business attitude. Activities of international organizations includes energy planning activities of IAEA and OECD/NEA, introduction of the activities of FNCA, one of the cooperation mechanism among Asian countries. In addition, MESSAGE computer model was also introduced. The model is being developed by IAEA to effectively handle liberalization of electricity market combined with environmental constraints

  9. Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinari, Frank D.

    1979-01-01

    Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

  10. Thermodynamics, thermoeconomic and economic analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The thermoeconomic analysis proposes the distribution of costs based on thermodynamic concepts, enabling the evaluation of reflection of the investment costs and fuel in the cost of products (steam and electricity). The economic analysis acts as a deciding factor for acceptance or project rejection. Keywords: Cogeneration ...

  11. The Use of Economic Evidence to Inform Drug Pricing Decisions in Jordan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammad, Eman A

    2016-01-01

    Drug pricing is an example of a priority setting in a developing country with official requirements for the use of cost-effectiveness (CE) evidence. To describe the role of economic evidence in drug pricing decisions in Jordan. A prospective review of all applications submitted between November 2013 and May 2015 to the Jordan Food and Drug Association's drug pricing committee was carried out. All applications that involved requests for CE evidence were reviewed. Details on the type of study, the extent, and whether the evidence submitted was part of the formal deliberations were extracted and summarized. The committee reviewed a total of 1608 drug pricing applications over the period of the study. CE evidence was requested in only 11 applications. The submitted evidence was of limited use to the committee due to concerns about quality, relevance of studies, and lack of pharmacoeconomic expertise. There were also no clear rules describing how CE would inform pricing decisions. Limited local data and health economic experience were the main barriers to the use of economic evidence in drug pricing decisions in Jordan. In addition, there are no official rules describing the elements and process by which the CE evidence would inform drug pricing decisions. This study summarized accumulated observations for the current use of economic evaluations and evidence-based decision making in Jordan. Recommendations have been proposed to applicants and key decision makers to enhance the role of economic evidence in influencing health policies and evidence-based decision making across priority settings. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  13. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S.

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  14. Verification of Decision-Analytic Models for Health Economic Evaluations: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dasbach, Erik J; Elbasha, Elamin H

    2017-07-01

    Decision-analytic models for cost-effectiveness analysis are developed in a variety of software packages where the accuracy of the computer code is seldom verified. Although modeling guidelines recommend using state-of-the-art quality assurance and control methods for software engineering to verify models, the fields of pharmacoeconomics and health technology assessment (HTA) have yet to establish and adopt guidance on how to verify health and economic models. The objective of this paper is to introduce to our field the variety of methods the software engineering field uses to verify that software performs as expected. We identify how many of these methods can be incorporated in the development process of decision-analytic models in order to reduce errors and increase transparency. Given the breadth of methods used in software engineering, we recommend a more in-depth initiative to be undertaken (e.g., by an ISPOR-SMDM Task Force) to define the best practices for model verification in our field and to accelerate adoption. Establishing a general guidance for verifying models will benefit the pharmacoeconomics and HTA communities by increasing accuracy of computer programming, transparency, accessibility, sharing, understandability, and trust of models.

  15. ACCOUNTING INFORMATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC DECISION AND FISCAL MANAGEMENT IN THE ENTERPRISE LEVEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HOLT GHEORGHE

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Anchored in reflecting reality, as secular science and practice, accounting has demonstrated continuously opening towards progress and social involvement. The information provided by operators underlie the economic and political decision of a wide range of users. The variety of funding determines the specific behavior of the company. In an economic environment with largely financing through bank loans, companies and their creditors directs its decision in particular on collateral, receivables and payables at a time. In an environment with its own financing, the interests of users of accounting information is moving mainly on growth equity, results and cash holdings.

  16. Decision Analysis: Engineering Science or Clinical Art

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-11-01

    TECHNICAL REPORT TR 79-2-97 DECISION ANALYSIS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE OR CLINICAL ART ? by Dennis M. Buede Prepared for Defense Advanced Research...APPLICATIONS OF THE ENGINEER- ING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART EXTREMES 9 3.1 Applications of the Engineering Science Approach 9 3.1.1 Mexican electrical...DISCUSSION 29 4.1 Engineering Science versus Clinical Art : A Characterization of When Each is Most Attractive 30 4.2 The Implications of the Engineering

  17. Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orient, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

  18. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher eSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  19. Applying health economics for policy decision making: do devices differ from drugs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorenson, Corinna; Tarricone, Rosanna; Siebert, Markus; Drummond, Michael

    2011-05-01

    Medical devices pose unique challenges for economic evaluation and associated decision-making processes that differ from pharmaceuticals. We highlight and discuss these challenges in the context of cardiac device therapy, based on a systematic review of relevant economic evaluations. Key challenges include practical difficulties in conducting randomized clinical trials, allowing for a 'learning curve' and user characteristics, accounting for the wider organizational impacts of introducing new devices, and allowing for variations in product characteristics and prices over time.

  20. Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision Making Among the Poor

    OpenAIRE

    Bertrand, Marianne; Shafir, Eldar; Mullainathan, Sendhil

    2006-01-01

    This article considers several aspects of the economic decision making of the poor from the perspective of behavioral economics, and it focuses on potential contributions from marketing. Among other things, the authors consider some relevant facets of the social and institutional environments in which the poor interact, and they review some behavioral patterns that are likely to arise in these contexts. A behaviorally more informed perspective can help make sense of what might otherwise be co...

  1. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  2. How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Parodi Trece

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are defined. These are economic indicators, related, that depend on domestic policy and exogenous shocks, defined as events that are out of the hands of economic policy designers, but that influence the three variables, such as the international financial crisis. Following it, the formalization through macroeconomic identities is made, in order to finally explain "how is the economy" through them; and the relationship between the internal to the external economic environment. Bringing the economy to business should be a priority in an increasingly integrated context, characterized by the fact that the positive and the negative of what happens in the world economy is transmitted through various channels, to companies located in different countries. Hence, companies should broaden their vision, as the economic environment does not only include what happens within the country, but the future of the world economy.

  3. Cognitive control and individual differences in economic ultimatum decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim De Neys

    Full Text Available Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responders. The key finding was that people who were higher in cognitive control, as measured by behavioral (Go/No-Go performance and neural (No-Go N2 amplitude markers, did tend to behave more in line with the standard models and showed increased acceptance of unequal splits. Hence, the cognitively highest scoring decision-makers were more likely to maximize their monetary payoffs and adhere to the standard economic predictions. Findings question popular claims with respect to the rejection of standard economic models and the irrationality of human economic decision-making.

  4. Heart strings and purse strings: Carryover effects of emotions on economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Small, Deborah A; Loewenstein, George

    2004-05-01

    We examined the impact of specific emotions on the endowment effect, the tendency for selling prices to exceed buying or "choice" prices for the same object. As predicted by appraisal-tendency theory, disgust induced by a prior, irrelevant situation carried over to normatively unrelated economic decisions, reducing selling and choice prices and eliminating the endowment effect. Sadness also carried over, reducing selling prices but increasing choice prices--producing a "reverse endowment effect" in which choice prices exceeded selling prices. The results demonstrate that incidental emotions can influence decisions even when real money is at stake, and that emotions of the same valence can have opposing effects on such decisions.

  5. Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

    2016-02-01

    Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  7. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

  8. Neurocognitive Mechanisms Underlying Value-Based Decision-Making: From Core Values to Economic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias eBrosch

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC, ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

  9. Neurocognitive mechanisms underlying value-based decision-making: from core values to economic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosch, Tobias; Sander, David

    2013-01-01

    VALUE PLAYS A CENTRAL ROLE IN PRACTICALLY EVERY ASPECT OF HUMAN LIFE THAT REQUIRES A DECISION: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

  10. Neurocognitive mechanisms underlying value-based decision-making: from core values to economic value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosch, Tobias; Sander, David

    2013-01-01

    Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making. PMID:23898252

  11. Economic Analysis of Horticultural Enterprises in Yenagoa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was on Economic analysis of horticultural enterprises in Yenagoa metropolis of Bayelsa State, Nigeria. A total of 8 horticultural enterprises were chosen through a pilot survey to form the sample size. Results show that horticultural farming is an activity for both males and females. A greater number of the ...

  12. Comparative Economic Analysis of Beekeeping Using Traditional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was carried out in Tabora and Katavi regions in the miombo woodlands of Tanzania. The overall objective of the study was to undertake a comparative economic analysis of beekeeping using improved or traditional beehives. Data were collected from 198 beekeepers that were randomly selected from a sampling ...

  13. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  14. The Economic Analysis of University Participation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallis, George

    2015-01-01

    Over the postwar period in most developed countries, the university participation rate has risen steadily to well over 30 percent, although there remain differences between countries. Students from lower income families have lower participation rates than those from higher income families. The article provides an economic analysis of these…

  15. Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters: The ECAT Software Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, Adam; Prager, Fynn; Chen, Zhenhua; Chatterjee, Samrat; Wei, Dan; Heatwole, Nathaniel; Warren, Eric

    2017-04-15

    This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches. The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

  16. Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks: A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ultsch, Bernhard; Damm, Oliver; Beutels, Philippe; Bilcke, Joke; Brüggenjürgen, Bernd; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hanquet, Germaine; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark; Knol, Mirjam; von Kries, Rüdiger; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Perleth, Matthias; Postma, Maarten; Salo, Heini; Siebert, Uwe; Wasem, Jürgen; Wichmann, Ole

    2016-03-01

    Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist, several immunization-specific aspects (e.g. indirect effects or discounting approach) are still a subject of debate within the scientific community. The objective of this study was to develop a consensus framework for HEEs of vaccines to support the development of national guidelines in Europe. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify prevailing issues related to HEEs of vaccines. Furthermore, European experts in the field of health economics and immunization decision making were nominated and asked to select relevant aspects for discussion. Based on this, a workshop was held with these experts. Aspects on 'mathematical modelling', 'health economics' and 'decision making' were debated in group-work sessions (GWS) to formulate recommendations and/or--if applicable--to state 'pros' and 'contras'. A total of 13 different aspects were identified for modelling and HEE: model selection, time horizon of models, natural disease history, measures of vaccine-induced protection, duration of vaccine-induced protection, indirect effects apart from herd protection, target population, model calibration and validation, handling uncertainty, discounting, health-related quality of life, cost components, and perspectives. For decision making, there were four aspects regarding the purpose and the integration of HEEs of vaccines in decision making as well as the variation of parameters within uncertainty analyses and the reporting of results from HEEs. For each aspect, background information and an expert consensus were formulated. There was consensus that when HEEs are used to prioritize healthcare funding, this should be done in a consistent way across all interventions

  17. The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2003-06-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

  18. Contributions of the Medial Prefrontal Cortex to Social Influence in Economic Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apps, M A J; Ramnani, N

    2017-09-01

    Economic decisions are guided by highly subjective reward valuations (SVs). Often these SVs are over-ridden when individuals conform to social norms. Yet, the neural mechanisms that underpin the distinct processing of such normative reward valuations (NVs) are poorly understood. The dorsomedial and ventromedial portions of the prefrontal cortex (dmPFC/vmPFC) are putatively key regions for processing social and economic information respectively. However, the contribution of these regions to economic decisions guided by social norms is unclear. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging and computational modeling we examine the neural mechanisms underlying the processing of SVs and NVs. Subjects (n = 15) indicated either their own economic preferences or made similar choices based on a social norm-learnt during a training session. We found that that the vmPFC and dmPFC make dissociable contributions to the processing of SV and NV. Regions of the dmPFC processed "only" the value of rewards when making normative choices. In contrast, we identify a novel mechanism in the vmPFC for the coding of value. This region signaled both subjective and normative valuations, but activity was scaled positively for SV and negatively for NV. These results highlight some of the key mechanisms that underpin conformity and social influence in economic decision-making. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  19. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth eLim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  20. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    OpenAIRE

    P.J. Sebei; C.M.E. McCrindle; E.C. Webb

    2004-01-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

  1. Political and Economic Decisions and Competition – What is the Efficient Antimonopoly Policy?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irakli Lekvinadze

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the influence of economic decisions which affect the antitrust and competition support policies. Many countries provide governmental initiatives for improving antirust legislation. There is an effort to develop efficient legislation, to define market boundaries, to identify dominating companies, and to prevent cartel development. A review of the literature has shown that refined legislation does not work. Qualified and non-politicized economic decisions are required to provide fair and equitable competition in the marketplace. The discussions of various researchers are profiled on the economic issues. This article analyzes The Republic of Georgia’s 20 year unique market experiences in Eastern Europe. Recommendations have been proposed to increase the effectiveness of an anti-monopoly policy. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

  2. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...... models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made....

  3. A cross-cultural study of noblesse oblige in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiddick, Laurence; Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Janicki, Maria; Lee, Sean; Erlich, Nicole

    2013-09-01

    A cornerstone of economic theory is that rational agents are self-interested, yet a decade of research in experimental economics has shown that economic decisions are frequently driven by concerns for fairness, equity, and reciprocity. One aspect of other-regarding behavior that has garnered attention is noblesse oblige, a social norm that obligates those of higher status to be generous in their dealings with those of lower status. The results of a cross-cultural study are reported in which marked noblesse oblige was observed on a reciprocal-contract decision-making task. Participants from seven countries that vary along hierarchical and individualist/collectivist social dimensions were more tolerant of non-reciprocation when they adopted a high-ranking perspective compared with a low-ranking perspective.

  4. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney MR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

  5. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-08-01

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  6. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  7. An Overview of Value, Perspective, and Decision Context-A Health Economics Approach: An ISPOR Special Task Force Report [2].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, Louis P; Pauly, Mark V; Willke, Richard J; Neumann, Peter J

    2018-02-01

    The second section of our Special Task Force builds on the discussion of value and perspective in the previous article of the report by 1) defining a health economics approach to the concept of value in health care systems; 2) discussing the relationship of value to perspective and decision context, that is, how recently proposed value frameworks vary by the types of decisions being made and by the stakeholders involved; 3) describing the patient perspective on value because the patient is a key stakeholder, but one also wearing the hat of a health insurance purchaser; and 4) discussing how value is relevant in the market-based US system of mixed private and public insurance, and differs from its use in single-payer systems. The five recent value frameworks that motivated this report vary in the types of decisions they intend to inform, ranging from coverage, access, and pricing decisions to those defining appropriate clinical pathways and to supporting provider-clinician shared decision making. Each of these value frameworks must be evaluated in its own decision context for its own objectives. Existing guidelines for cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the importance of clearly specifying the perspective from which the analysis is undertaken. Relevant perspectives may include, among others, 1) the health plan enrollee, 2) the patient, 3) the health plan manager, 4) the provider, 5) the technology manufacturer, 6) the specialty society, 7) government regulators, or 8) society as a whole. A valid and informative cost-effectiveness analysis could be conducted from the perspective of any of these stakeholders, depending on the decision context. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Theoretical and methodological construction of ecological economic and analysis of operations industrial enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.O. Gritsishen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available To form an effective analytical maintenance of economic and environmental security of industrial enterprises were justified assumptions of ecological and economic analysis. In particular, the goal (the formation of the effect of business enterprises, based on established causal link that allows you to get a comprehensive assessment to management decisions to change the parameters of governance in general and individual management subsystems aimed at ensuring the environmental and economic safety of industrial enterprise and task object (causal relationships that characterize the state of the relationship of economic activity to the environment and determine the level of environmental and economic security of industrial enterprise and object (economic activity in partial relationship with the environment that determine the level of environmental and economic security of industrial enterprises. It is possible to expand understanding of economic analysis in general and its importance in ensuring effective interaction with the enterprise environment.

  9. Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Frédéric

    2010-01-27

    To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's inference about someone else's state-of-mind. In this essay, we argue for embodied economics: an approach to neuroeconomics that takes into account how information provided by the entire body and its coordination dynamics influences the way we make economic decisions. Considering the role of embodiment in economics--movements, posture, sensitivity to mimicry and every kind of information the body conveys--makes sense. This is what we claim in this essay which, to some extent, constitutes a plea to consider bodily interactions between agents in social (neuro)economics.

  10. A difficult balancing act: policy actors' perspectives on using economic evaluation to inform health-care coverage decisions under the Universal Health Insurance Coverage scheme in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teerawattananon, Yot; Russell, Steve

    2008-03-01

    In Thailand, policymakers have come under increasing pressure to use economic evaluation to inform health-care resource allocation decisions, especially after the introduction of the Universal Health Insurance Coverage (UC) scheme. This article presents qualitative findings from research that assessed a range of policymakers' perspectives on the acceptability of using economic evaluation for the development of health-care benefit packages in Thailand. The policy analysis examined their opinions about existing decision-making processes for including health interventions in the UC benefit package, their understanding of health economic evaluation, and their attitudes, acceptance, and values relating to the use of the method. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role or have some input into health resource allocation decisions within the Thai health-care system. These included 14 senior policymakers at the national level, 5 hospital directors, 10 health professionals, and 7 academics. Policy actors thought that economic evaluation information was relevant for decision-making because of the increasing need for rationing and more transparent criteria for making UC coverage decisions. Nevertheless, they raised several difficulties with using economic evaluation that would pose barriers to its introduction, including distrust in the method, conflicting philosophical positions and priorities compared to that of "health maximization," organizational allegiances, existing decision-making procedures that would be hard to change, and concerns about political pressure and acceptability.

  11. Economic analysis of KNGR's conceptual design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Myung-Sub; Chung, Kyung-Nam; Hong, Jang-Hee

    1997-01-01

    During the last two decades in Korea, with the rapid economic growth and industrialization, nuclear power has played an important role in electric power production. At present, Korea has 11 nuclear units in operation with total installed capacity of 9,916MWe and 7 units under construction with total capacity of 6,100MWe. An advanced reactor development program, called Korean Next Generation Reactor (KNGR), has been started for the coming 21st century. It aims to enhance safety features compared to existing plants and follow the target to maintain the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy with alternative energy sources. In order to meet these requirements, a number of technical and economical factors have been taken into the program. These factors include the economy of plant size, design simplification and optimization, and reduction of construction period. This paper addresses the preliminary economic analysis results for the KNGR design. It is indicated that KNGR has about 17% economic advantage compared to the current 1,000 MWe PWR. This paper also describes some of the experiences gained and important factors related to reducing the investment and operation costs. 5 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  12. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mansour, Fouad; Kozuh, Mitja

    2007-01-01

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  13. Strengthening national decision-making on immunization by building capacity for economic evaluation: Implementing ProVac in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blau, Julia; Hoestlandt, Céline; D Clark, Andrew; Baxter, Louise; Felix Garcia, Ana Gabriela; Mounaud, Bérénice; Mosina, Liudmila

    2015-05-07

    -vaccine economic analysis, review of local evidence, recommending key data inputs, and support in presenting results to national decision makers. National cost-effectiveness studies were conducted in four countries: Albania (rotavirus vaccine [RV]), Azerbaijan (pneumococcal conjugate vaccine [PCV]), Croatia (PCV), and Georgia (PCV). All four countries improved their estimates of the burden of disease preventable by the new vaccines. National advisory bodies and ministries of health obtained economic evidence that helped Albania and Croatia to make decisions on introducing the new vaccines. Azerbaijan and Georgia used economic evidence to confirm previously made preliminary decisions to introduce PCV and make corresponding financial commitments. The study helped Albania to obtain access to affordable prices for rotavirus vaccines through participation in the UNICEF procurement mechanism for middle-income countries. Croatia was able to define the PCV price that would make its introduction cost-effective, and can use this figure as a basis for price negotiations. Despite some challenges due to competing national priorities, tight budgets for immunization, and lack of available national data, the ProVac IWG helped to build capacity of national health professionals, support decision-making for the introduction of new vaccines, and promote utilization of economic evidence for making decisions on immunization. This type of strong collaboration among international partners and countries should be scaled up, given that many other countries in the WHO European Region have expressed interest in receiving assistance from the ProVac IWG. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takao, Hidemasa; Nojo, Takeshi; Ohtomo, Kuni

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

  15. Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stelian STANCU

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

  16. Aspects of economic analysis in forestry enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Yu. Chik

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The subject of economic analysis from the point of view of philosophical sciences and works of domestic and foreign scientists is researched. The analysis of costs and production costs as the most important components of the economic analysis of forestry enterprises are distinguished. The basic tasks of the economic analysis at the enterprises of forestry are determined. The main objects of the study of indicators of the cost price of forestry products are singled out. The calculation of general indicators of expenditures at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is carried out and the corresponding general conclusions are made. The influence of factors on the change in the cost price of harvesting of forestry products in terms of expenditure items at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» is calculated and the corresponding general conclusions are indicated. The main sources of reserves for reducing the costs of forestry products at the State Enterprise «Zolochiv Forestry» are proposed.

  17. Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis | Bioenergy | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis Techno-Economic, Sustainability, and Market Analysis NREL conducts techno-economic analyses (TEAs) for algal biofuels, thermochemical conversion, and agitating the liquid as it flows around. Algal Biofuels Techno-Economic Analysis NREL's Algae Techno

  18. An economic analysis of communal goat production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebel, P J; McCrindle, C M E; Webb, E C

    2004-03-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scale communal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of North West Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In South Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different scenarios to

  19. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.J. Sebei

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis. Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small-scale communal goat farmers are not adopting or implementing extension messages to improve production capacity. In south Africa the majority of goats are slaughtered in the informal sector. If the informal sector is to be persuaded to market goats commercially through formal channels, then knowledge of the economics of goat farming on communal lands should be provided. The economic aspects of extension messages are probably an important factor in determining acceptance and sustainability yet appear to be seldom investigated. The probable reason for lack of adoption of standard extension messages, which promote improved nutrition, parasite control, vaccination and treatment of goats, was economic. In other words, the so-called 'poor management practices' used by communal farmers appeared to be economically more profitable than the 'good management practices' suggested to increase production. The price of communal goats was not related to their mass. A higher level of inputs would probably have resulted in a heavier kid, however it was established that this would not have influenced the price received as a majority of the goats were slaughtered for ritual purposes where age, colour and sex were more important to the purchaser than body mass. It is standard practice in commercial farming systems to evaluate the economic benefits of all management practices before they are implemented. Production animal veterinarians use veterinary economics to compare different

  20. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su

    1997-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

  1. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-22

    although non- governmental groups do run operations in the DPRK in activities such as goat dairy farming and transportation. North -South Korean...Finance Minister Says “At Least” 34m US Dollars Sent to North Korea. Financial Times Information, Global News Wire—Asia Africa Intelligence Wire. June 6...CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis Dick K

  2. Embodied economics: how bodily information shapes the social coordination dynamics of decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oullier, Olivier; Basso, Frédéric

    2010-01-01

    To date, experiments in economics are restricted to situations in which individuals are not influenced by the physical presence of other people. In such contexts, interactions remain at an abstract level, agents guessing what another person is thinking or is about to decide based on money exchange. Physical presence and bodily signals are therefore left out of the picture. However, in real life, social interactions (involving economic decisions or not) are not solely determined by a person's inference about someone else's state-of-mind. In this essay, we argue for embodied economics: an approach to neuroeconomics that takes into account how information provided by the entire body and its coordination dynamics influences the way we make economic decisions. Considering the role of embodiment in economics—movements, posture, sensitivity to mimicry and every kind of information the body conveys—makes sense. This is what we claim in this essay which, to some extent, constitutes a plea to consider bodily interactions between agents in social (neuro)economics. PMID:20026467

  3. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    OpenAIRE

    O’Brien, Megan K.; Ahmed, Alaa A.

    2014-01-01

    Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared thre...

  4. Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

    2012-02-01

    Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

  5. Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

    2018-01-01

    systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

  6. Who is Willing to Let Ethics Guide His Economic Decision-Making? Evidence from Individual Investments in Ethical Funds

    OpenAIRE

    Säve-Söderbergh, Jenny

    2005-01-01

    Recent economics literature has devoted attention towards motives beyond the typical selfish norm for economic decision-making. Yet, it still remains a puzzle who allows such considerations to govern their behavior. This paper contributes by empirically identifying some features which differentiate individuals who choose to bear the cost of ethically guided economic decision-making from others. Using unique Swedish data on individual pension portfolio choices, we find that education, the choi...

  7. Neuroethics transformation of economic rationality: implications for decision making in business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José-Félix Lozano

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The economy and business field has traditionally been dominated by a conception of calculator, strategic and profit-maximizing individual rationality. This model of rationality has important theoretical limitations and practical consequences. In recent decades the results of neuroethics´ research seems open new ways for understanding the practical rationality. These new routes, representing a revaluation of emotional and intuitive dimension in cognitive ability and have great relevance for business and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the implications of a rational dialogic-friendly (cor-cordis concept for economic and business decision-making. Our work proposes a version of the dialogic-friendly practical rationality that integrate advances in neuroethics with the discursive rationality perspective in order to overcome the strategic rationality and emotivist intuitionism.

  8. Promising Approaches From Behavioral Economics to Improve Patient Lung Cancer Screening Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Andrew J; Groskaufmanis, Lauren; Thomson, Norman B

    2016-12-01

    Lung cancer is a devastating disease, the deadliest form of cancer in the world and in the United States. As a consequence of CMS's determination to provide low-dose CT (LDCT) as a covered service for at-risk smokers, LDCT lung cancer screening is now a covered service for many at-risk patients that first requires counseling and shared clinical decision making, including discussions of the risks and benefits of LDCT screening. However, shared decision making fundamentally relies on the premise that with better information, patients will arrive at rational decisions that align with their preferences and values. Evidence from the field of behavioral economics offers many contrary viewpoints that take into account patient decision making biases and the role of the shared decision environment that can lead to flawed choices and that are particularly relevant to lung cancer screening and treatment. This article discusses some of the most relevant biases, and suggests incorporating such knowledge into screening and treatment guidelines and shared decision making best practices to increase the likelihood that such efforts will produce their desired objectives to improve survival and quality of life. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

  10. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim; Napoleon Danbeki Saingbe; Zubairu Ajiya Abdulkadir

    2012-01-01

    The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and cre...

  11. The International Decision Support Initiative Reference Case for Economic Evaluation: An Aid to Thought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Thomas; Sculpher, Mark J; Claxton, Karl; Revill, Paul; Briggs, Andrew; Cairns, John A; Teerawattananon, Yot; Asfaw, Elias; Lopert, Ruth; Culyer, Anthony J; Walker, Damian G

    2016-12-01

    Policymakers in high-, low-, and middle-income countries alike face challenging choices about resource allocation in health. Economic evaluation can be useful in providing decision makers with the best evidence of the anticipated benefits of new investments, as well as their expected opportunity costs-the benefits forgone of the options not chosen. To guide the decisions of health systems effectively, it is important that the methods of economic evaluation are founded on clear principles, are applied systematically, and are appropriate to the decision problems they seek to inform. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, a major funder of economic evaluations of health technologies in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), commissioned a "reference case" through the International Decision Support Initiative (iDSI) to guide future evaluations, and improve both the consistency and usefulness to decision makers. The iDSI Reference Case draws on previous insights from the World Health Organization, the US Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health Care, and the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Comprising 11 key principles, each accompanied by methodological specifications and reporting standards, the iDSI Reference Case also serves as a means of identifying priorities for methods research, and can be used as a framework for capacity building and technical assistance in LMICs. The iDSI Reference Case is an aid to thought, not a substitute for it, and should not be followed slavishly without regard to context, culture, or history. This article presents the iDSI Reference Case and discusses the rationale, approach, components, and application in LMICs. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Understanding the stakeholders' intention to use economic decision-support tools: A cross-sectional study with the tobacco return on investment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Kei Long; Evers, Silvia M A A; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Vokó, Zoltán; Pokhrel, Subhash; Jones, Teresa; Muñoz, Celia; Wolfenstetter, Silke B; Józwiak-Hagymásy, Judit; de Vries, Hein

    2016-01-01

    Despite an increased number of economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions, the uptake by stakeholders continues to be limited. Understanding the underlying mechanism in adopting such economic decision-support tools by stakeholders is therefore important. By applying the I-Change Model, this study aims to identify which factors determine potential uptake of an economic decision-support tool, i.e., the Return on Investment tool. Stakeholders (decision-makers, purchasers of services/pharma products, professionals/service providers, evidence generators and advocates of health promotion) were interviewed in five countries, using an I-Change based questionnaire. MANOVA's were conducted to assess differences between intenders and non-intenders regarding beliefs. A multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify the main explanatory variables of intention to use an economic decision-support tool. Ninety-three stakeholders participated. Significant differences in beliefs were found between non-intenders and intenders: risk perception, attitude, social support, and self-efficacy towards using the tool. Regression showed that demographics, pre-motivational, and motivational factors explained 69% of the variation in intention. This study is the first to provide a theoretical framework to understand differences in beliefs between stakeholders who do or do not intend to use economic decision-support tools, and empirically corroborating the framework. This contributes to our understanding of the facilitators and barriers to the uptake of these studies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. National Launch System comparative economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, A.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

  14. Economic Analysis of Several Nuclear Fuel Cycles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Won Il; Gao, Fanxing; Kim, Sung Ki

    2012-01-01

    Economics is one of the essential criteria to be considered for the future deployment of the nuclear power. With regard to the competitive power market, the cost of electricity from nuclear power plants is somewhat highly competitive with those from the other electricity generations, averaging lower in cost than fossil fuels, wind, or solar. However, a closer look at the nuclear power production brings an insight that the cost varies within a wide range, highly depending on a nuclear fuel cycle option. The option of nuclear fuel cycle is a key determinant in the economics, and therefrom, a comprehensive comparison among the proposed fuel cycle options necessitates an economic analysis for thirteen promising options based on the material flow analysis obtained by an equilibrium model as specified in the first article (Modeling and System Analysis of Different Fuel Cycle Options for Nuclear Power Sustainability (I): Uranium Consumption and Waste Generation). The objective of the article is to provide a systematic cost comparison among these nuclear fuel cycles. The generation cost (GC) generally consists of a capital cost, an operation and maintenance cost (O and M cost), a fuel cycle cost (FCC), and a decontaminating and decommissioning (D and D) cost. FCC includes a frontend cost and a back-end cost, as well as costs associated with fuel recycling in the cases of semi-closed and closed cycle options. As a part of GC, the economic analysis on FCC mainly focuses on the cost differences among fuel cycle options considered and therefore efficiently avoids the large uncertainties of the Generation-IV reactor capital costs and the advanced reprocessing costs. However, the GC provides a more comprehensive result covering all the associated costs, and therefrom, both GC and FCC have been analyzed, respectively. As a widely applied tool, the levelized cost (mills/KWh) proves to be a fundamental calculation principle in the energy and power industry, which is particularly

  15. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  16. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias eKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  17. Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  18. Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

  19. Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qinwei Chi; Wenjing Li

    2017-01-01

    Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks’ credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks’ credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.

  20. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coiante, D.

    1995-03-01

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  1. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, K. H.; Kim, J. H.; Boo, K. D.; Park, S. B.

    2010-07-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of

  2. Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1995-01-01

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned

  3. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  4. The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

    2016-04-01

    Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even

  5. Economic analysis of radioactive waste storage and disposal projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleinen, P.J.; Starnes, R.B.

    1995-01-01

    Radioactive waste storage and disposal efforts present challenging issues for cost and economic analyses. In particular, legal requirements for states and compact areas to develop radioactive waste disposal sites, combined with closure of some sites, have placed urgency on planning, locating, and constructing storage and disposal sites. Cost analyses of potential projects are important to the decision processes. Principal objectives for cost analyses for projects are to identify all activities, covering the entire project life cycle, and to develop costs for those activities using methods that allow direct comparisons between competing project alternatives. For radioactive waste projects, long project lives ranging from tens of years to 100 or more years must be considered. Alternative, and competing, technologies, designs, and operating plans must be evaluated. Thorough base cost estimates must be made for all project phases: planning, development, licensing/permitting, construction, operations, and maintenance, closure, and post-closure/institutional care. Economic analysis procedures need to accommodate the specific features of each project alternative and facilitate cost comparisons between differing alternatives. Economic analysis assumptions must be developed to address the unusually long project lives involved in radioactive waste projects

  6. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. Keywords: agent-based simulation, banker behavior, interbank lending, economic downturn

  7. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  8. Herding, social influence and economic decision-making: socio-psychological and neuroscientific analyses

    OpenAIRE

    Baddeley, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Typically, modern economics has steered away from the analysis of sociological and psychological factors and has focused on narrow behavioural assumptions in which expectations are formed on the basis of mathematical algorithms. Blending together ideas from the social and behavioural sciences, this paper argues that the behavioural approach adopted in most economic analysis, in its neglect of sociological and psychological forces and its simplistically dichotomous categorization of behaviour ...

  9. Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

    2015-06-01

    Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

    2003-01-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  11. Offshore Wind Market and Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, Bruce Duncan [Navigant Consulting, Inc., Chicago, IL (United States)

    2014-08-27

    This report is the third annual assessment of the U.S. offshore wind market. It includes the following major sections: Section 1: key data on developments in the offshore wind technology sector and the global development of offshore wind projects, with a particular focus on progress in the United States; Section 2: analysis of policy developments at the federal and state levels that have been effective in advancing offshore wind deployment in the United States; Section 3: analysis of actual and projected economic impact, including regional development and job creation; Section 4: analysis of developments in relevant sectors of the economy with the potential to affect offshore wind deployment in the United States

  12. Economic analysis of hydride fueled BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganda, F.; Shuffler, C.; Greenspan, E.; Todreas, N.

    2009-01-01

    The economic implications of designing BWR cores with hydride fuels instead of conventional oxide fuels are analyzed. The economic analysis methodology adopted is based on the lifetime levelized cost of electricity (COE). Bracketing values (1970 and 3010 $/kWe) are used for the overnight construction costs and for the power scaling factors (0.4 and 0.8) that correlate between a change in the capital cost to a change in the power level. It is concluded that a newly constructed BWR reactor could substantially benefit from the use of 10 x 10 hydride fuel bundles instead of 10 x 10 oxide fuel bundles design presently in use. The cost saving would depend on the core pressure drop constraint that can be implemented in newly constructed BWRs - it is between 2% and 3% for a core pressure drop constraint as of the reference BWR, between 9% and 15% for a 50% higher core pressure drop, and between 12% and 21% higher for close to 100% core pressure. The attainable cost reduction was found insensitive to the specific construction cost but strongly dependent on the power scaling factor. The cost advantage of hydride fuelled cores as compared to that of the oxide reference core depends only weakly on the uranium and SWU prices, on the 'per volume base' fabrication cost of hydride fuels, and on the discount rate used. To be economically competitive, the uranium enrichment required for the hydride fuelled core needs to be around 10%.

  13. Thermo-economic analysis of combined power plants with changing economic parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidini, G.; Desideri, U.; Facchini, B.

    1991-01-01

    A method of thermo-economic analysis for the choice of optimal thermodynamic parameters of steam bottoming cycles in combined cycle power plants is presented. By keeping the thermodynamic aspects separated from the economic aspects, this method allows designers to easily perform a sensitivity analysis of the change in the economic parameters

  14. CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. V. Nadurak

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

  15. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  16. Thermal-economic analysis of cogeneration systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, A.C.S.; Bajay, S.V.

    1992-01-01

    Approximately 80 countries produce sugar, and fortuitously alcohol, from sugar cane. In all these countries the cogeneration technology of steam turbines is utilized, although almost always inefficient. The greater potential of cogeneration in Brazil is in sugar and alcohol sector, because of the use of sugar cane bagasse as combustible. This work applies the techniques of simulation and economic analysis to different configuration of plants, to determine power generation and associated costs of each alternative. The application of the same procedure at operating condition of several configurations in transient system permits the determination of production profile of exceeding during one day. (C.M.)

  17. Social-economical decision making in current and remitted major depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulcu, E; Thomas, E J; Trotter, P D; McFarquhar, M; Juhasz, G; Sahakian, B J; Deakin, J F W; Anderson, I M; Zahn, R; Elliott, R

    2015-04-01

    Prosocial emotions related to self-blame are important in guiding human altruistic decisions. These emotions are elevated in major depressive disorder (MDD), such that MDD has been associated with guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism. However, the impact of such emotional impairments in MDD on different types of social decision-making is unknown. In order to address this issue, we investigated different kinds of altruistic behaviour (interpersonal cooperation and fund allocation, altruistic punishment and charitable donation) in 33 healthy subjects, 35 patients in full remission (unmedicated) and 24 currently depressed patients (11 on medication) using behavioural-economical paradigms. We show a significant main effect of clinical status on altruistic decisions (p = 0.04) and a significant interaction between clinical status and type of altruistic decisions (p = 0.03). More specifically, symptomatic patients defected significantly more in the Prisoner's Dilemma game (p guilt elicited by receiving unfair financial offers in the Ultimatum Game (p guilt-driven pathological hyper-altruism hypothesis in depression. There were also differences in both current and remitted patients in the relationship between altruistic behaviour and pathological self-blaming, suggesting an important role for these emotions in moral and social decision-making abnormalities in depression.

  18. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  19. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

  20. Technical and economic analysis of hydrogen refuelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nistor, Silviu; Dave, Saraansh; Fan, Zhong; Sooriyabandara, Mahesh

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Technical and economic models of a hydrogen station for vehicles refuelling. • Hydrogen demand from fuel cell electric vehicles modelled stochastically. • Study case based on a UK pilot project. • Operation of the H_2 station using combined energy from wind and power grid is preferred. • Return on investment of 5–10 years is possible for the hydrogen station. - Abstract: This paper focuses on technical and economic analysis of a hydrogen refilling station to provide operational insight through tight coupling of technical models of physical processes and economic models. This allows the dynamic relationships of the system to be captured and analysed to provide short/medium term analytical capability to support system design, planning, and financing. The modelling developed here highlights the need to closely link technical and economic models for technology led projects where technical capability and commercial feasibility are important. The results show that hydrogen fuel can be competitive with petrol on a GBP/KG basis if the return on investment period is over 10 years for PEM electrolysers and 5 for Alkaline electrolysers. We also show that subsidies on capital costs (as reflected by some R&D funding programs) make both PEM and Alkaline technologies cheaper than the equivalent price of petrol, which suggests more emphasis should be put on commercialising R&D funded projects as they have commercial advantages. The paper also shows that a combined wind and grid connected station is preferable so that a higher number of customers are served (i.e. minimum shortage of hydrogen).

  1. DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

  2. The Relation Between Socio-Economic Characteristics and the Innovation Decision Making of Digital Television Broadcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haryati Haryati

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Migration from analog to digital technology, requires a lot of preparation, both from the side of the device, the regulation of the broadcasting industry, and the society. This study refers to the Diffusion of Innovations theory (the theory of Diffusion of Innovation (Rogers, 1986 that try to explain how an innovation (technology can be accepted into the community, through a process of decision. The aim of the research is to find out the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the innovation and decision-making broadcast of digital television. This research uses a quantitative approach with descriptive methods aim to find out the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the innovation and decision-making broadcast of digital television. The research was carried out in seven counties/cities in West Java Province and Banten Province. The selection of samples is carried out by Multistage Random Cluster Sampling. The number of samples as many as 813 people assigned by Proportional Sampling techniques, with the character category of respondents age 15 years until 64 years. Significance test results with the method at the rate of 5% Pearson pointed out that, the relationship between innovation decision-making variables with socio-economic characteristics on three aspects, namely, education, income, and spending is weak and insignificant, while on access to information, the value of relationships and significant. This suggests the necessity of strengthening the capacity of absorption of community efforts in the face of digital broadcast television, can be done by fixing the value of any existing components on the operational level. As a priority, is how the effort to improve the economy of society, especially in terms of education, income, and expenditure permonth.

  3. Bringing the patient back in: behavioral decision-making and choice in medical economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Roger Lee

    2018-04-01

    We explore the behavioral methodology and "revolution" in economics through the lens of medical economics. We address two questions: (1) Are mainstream economic assumptions of utility-maximization realistic approximations of people's actual behavior? (2) Do people maximize subjective expected utility, particularly in choosing from among the available options? In doing so, we illustrate-in terms of a hypothetical experimental sample of patients with dry eye diagnosis-why and how utility in pharmacoeconomic assessments might be valued differently by patients when subjective psychological, social, cognitive, and emotional factors are considered. While experimentally-observed or surveyed behavior yields stated (rather than revealed) preferences, behaviorism offers a robust toolset in understanding drug, medical device, and treatment-related decisions compared to the optimizing calculus assumed by mainstream economists. It might also do so more perilously than economists have previously understood, in light of the intractable uncertainties, information asymmetries, insulated third-party agents, entry barriers, and externalities that characterize healthcare. Behavioral work has been carried out in many sub-fields of economics. Only recently has it been extended to healthcare. This offers medical economists both the challenge and opportunity of balancing efficiency presumptions with relatively autonomous patient choices, notwithstanding their predictable, yet seemingly consistent, irrationality. Despite its comparative youth and limitations, the scientific contributions of behaviorism are secure and its future in medical economics appears to be promising.

  4. Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.W.J. Dippel (Diederik)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractDiagnostic and therapeutic choice in neurology can fortunately be made without formal decision support in the majority of cases. in many patients a diagnosis and treatment choice are relatively easy to establish. This study however, concerns the application of a decision support

  5. OPTIMIZING USABILITY OF AN ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL: PROTOTYPE OF THE EQUIPT TOOL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Präger, Maximilian; Jones, Teresa; Józwiak-Hagymásy, Judit; Muñoz, Celia; Lester-George, Adam; Pokhrel, Subhash; López-Nicolás, Ángel; Trapero-Bertran, Marta; Evers, Silvia M A A; de Vries, Hein

    2018-01-01

    Economic decision-support tools can provide valuable information for tobacco control stakeholders, but their usability may impact the adoption of such tools. This study aims to illustrate a mixed-method usability evaluation of an economic decision-support tool for tobacco control, using the EQUIPT ROI tool prototype as a case study. A cross-sectional mixed methods design was used, including a heuristic evaluation, a thinking aloud approach, and a questionnaire testing and exploring the usability of the Return of Investment tool. A total of sixty-six users evaluated the tool (thinking aloud) and completed the questionnaire. For the heuristic evaluation, four experts evaluated the interface. In total twenty-one percent of the respondents perceived good usability. A total of 118 usability problems were identified, from which twenty-six problems were categorized as most severe, indicating high priority to fix them before implementation. Combining user-based and expert-based evaluation methods is recommended as these were shown to identify unique usability problems. The evaluation provides input to optimize usability of a decision-support tool, and may serve as a vantage point for other developers to conduct usability evaluations to refine similar tools before wide-scale implementation. Such studies could reduce implementation gaps by optimizing usability, enhancing in turn the research impact of such interventions.

  6. Robust Economic Control Decision Method of Uncertain System on Urban Domestic Water Supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kebai; Ma, Tianyi; Wei, Guo

    2018-03-31

    As China quickly urbanizes, urban domestic water generally presents the circumstances of both rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. A robust economic control decision method for dynamic uncertain systems is proposed in this paper. It is developed based on the internal model principle and pole allocation method, and it is applied to an urban domestic water supply system with rising tendency and seasonal cycle fluctuation. To achieve this goal, first a multiplicative model is used to describe the urban domestic water demand. Then, a capital stock and a labor stock are selected as the state vector, and the investment and labor are designed as the control vector. Next, the compensator subsystem is devised in light of the internal model principle. Finally, by using the state feedback control strategy and pole allocation method, the multivariable robust economic control decision method is implemented. The implementation with this model can accomplish the urban domestic water supply control goal, with the robustness for the variation of parameters. The methodology presented in this study may be applied to the water management system in other parts of the world, provided all data used in this study are available. The robust control decision method in this paper is also applicable to deal with tracking control problems as well as stabilization control problems of other general dynamic uncertain systems.

  7. Use of classical criterions of a decision making for choice of measures on decrease of economic damage from nuclear and radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rylov, M.I.; Kamynov, Sh.V.; Mozhaev, A.S.; Anisimov, N.A.; Nikitin, V.S.

    2004-01-01

    Application of classical criteria of decision making for choice of measures on the decrease of economic damage from possible nuclear and radiation accidents during spent fuel unloading from nuclear submarines and storage in the process of their utilization was demonstrated. Economic damage was chosen as optimization index, three versions of possible accidents and limited number of measures on the decrease of their effect were treated for illustration of the suggested approach. On the base of analysis of classical criteria the optimal strategy for decrease of economic damage was chosen [ru

  8. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  9. Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire D Tomkins

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

  10. Response time in economic games reflects different types of decision conflict for prosocial and proself individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamagishi, Toshio; Matsumoto, Yoshie; Kiyonari, Toko; Takagishi, Haruto; Li, Yang; Kanai, Ryota; Sakagami, Masamichi

    2017-06-13

    Behavioral and neuroscientific studies explore two pathways through which internalized social norms promote prosocial behavior. One pathway involves internal control of impulsive selfishness, and the other involves emotion-based prosocial preferences that are translated into behavior when they evade cognitive control for pursuing self-interest. We measured 443 participants' overall prosocial behavior in four economic games. Participants' predispositions [social value orientation (SVO)] were more strongly reflected in their overall game behavior when they made decisions quickly than when they spent a longer time. Prosocially (or selfishly) predisposed participants behaved less prosocially (or less selfishly) when they spent more time in decision making, such that their SVO prosociality yielded limited effects in actual behavior in their slow decisions. The increase (or decrease) in slower decision makers was prominent among consistent prosocials (or proselfs) whose strong preference for prosocial (or proself) goals would make it less likely to experience conflict between prosocial and proself goals. The strong effect of RT on behavior in consistent prosocials (or proselfs) suggests that conflict between prosocial and selfish goals alone is not responsible for slow decisions. Specifically, we found that contemplation of the risk of being exploited by others (social risk aversion) was partly responsible for making consistent prosocials (but not consistent proselfs) spend longer time in decision making and behave less prosocially. Conflict between means rather than between goals (immediate versus strategic pursuit of self-interest) was suggested to be responsible for the time-related increase in consistent proselfs' prosocial behavior. The findings of this study are generally in favor of the intuitive cooperation model of prosocial behavior.

  11. Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiaramonte, G.R.

    1995-01-01

    This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

  12. Nonlinear responses within the medial prefrontal cortex reveal when specific implicit information influences economic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deppe, Michael; Schwindt, Wolfram; Kugel, Harald; Plassmann, Hilke; Kenning, Peter

    2005-04-01

    The authors used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate how individual economic decisions are influenced by implicit memory contributions. Twenty-two participants were asked to make binary decisions between different brands of sensorily nearly undistinguishable consumer goods. Changes of brain activity comparing decisions in the presence or absence of a specific target brand were detected by fMRI. Only when the tar get brand was the participant's favorite one did the authors find reduced activation in the dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior parietal, and occipital cortices and the left premotor area (Brodmann areas [BA] 9, 46, 7/19, and 6). Simultaneously, activity was increased in the inferior precuneus and posterior cingulate (BA 7), right superior frontal gyrus (BA 10), right supramarginal gyrus (BA 40), and, most pronounced, in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (BA 10). For products mainly distinguishable by brand information, the authors revealed a nonlinear winner-take-all effect for a participant's favorite brand characterized, on one hand, by reduced activation in brain areas associated with working memory and reasoning and, on the other hand, increased activation in areas involved in processing of emotions and self-reflections during decision making.

  13. Genetic contributions of the serotonin transporter to social learning of fear and economic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crişan, Liviu G; Pana, Simona; Vulturar, Romana; Heilman, Renata M; Szekely, Raluca; Druğa, Bogdan; Dragoş, Nicolae; Miu, Andrei C

    2009-12-01

    Serotonin (5-HT) modulates emotional and cognitive functions such as fear conditioning (FC) and decision making. This study investigated the effects of a functional polymorphism in the regulatory region (5-HTTLPR) of the human 5-HT transporter (5-HTT) gene on observational FC, risk taking and susceptibility to framing in decision making under uncertainty, as well as multidimensional anxiety and autonomic control of the heart in healthy volunteers. The present results indicate that in comparison to the homozygotes for the long (l) version of 5-HTTLPR, the carriers of the short (s) version display enhanced observational FC, reduced financial risk taking and increased susceptibility to framing in economic decision making. We also found that s-carriers have increased trait anxiety due to threat in social evaluation, and ambiguous threat perception. In addition, s-carriers also show reduced autonomic control over the heart, and a pattern of reduced vagal tone and increased sympathetic activity in comparison to l-homozygotes. This is the first genetic study that identifies the association of a functional polymorphism in a key neurotransmitter-related gene with complex social-emotional and cognitive processes. The present set of results suggests an endophenotype of anxiety disorders, characterized by enhanced social learning of fear, impaired decision making and dysfunctional autonomic activity.

  14. The meaning of the virtual Midas touch: an ERP study in economic decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spapé, Michiel M; Hoggan, Eve E; Jacucci, Giulio; Ravaja, Niklas

    2015-03-01

    The Midas touch refers to the altruistic effects of a brief touch. Though these effects have often been replicated, they remain poorly understood. We investigate the psychophysiology of the effect using remotely transmitted, precisely timed, tactile messages in an economic decision-making game called Ultimatum. Participants were more likely to accept offers after receiving a remotely transmitted touch. Furthermore, we found distinct effects of touch on event-related potentials evoked by (a) feedback regarding accepted and rejected offers, (b) decision cues related to proposals, and (c) the haptic and auditory cues themselves. In each case, a late positive effect of touch was observed and related to the P3. Given the role of the P3 in memory-related functions, the results indicate an indirect relationship between touch and generosity that relies on memory. This hypothesis was further tested and confirmed in the positive effects of touch on later proposals. © 2014 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  15. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  16. A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

    OpenAIRE

    Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

    2017-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress...

  17. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Freshwater Resource Management in Southwestern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, C.; Baroud, H.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    Freshwater resources in coastal Bangladesh fluctuate with extreme periods of shortage and abundance. Bangladeshis have adapted to these alternating periods but are still plagued with scarce drinking water resources due to pond water pathogens, salinity of groundwater, and arsenic contamination. The success of attempts to correct the problem of unsafe drinking water have varied across the southern Bangladesh as a result of physical and social factors. We use a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to explore the various physical and social factors that influence decisions about freshwater technologies and management schemes in southern Bangladesh. To determine the best freshwater technologies and management schemes, we examine four alternatives, including managed aquifer recharge (MAR), pond sand filter (PSF), rain water harvesting (RWH), and tubewells (TW). Criteria are grouped into four categories (environmental, technical, social, and economic) and weighting of social factors will be determined by community surveys, non-governmental organizations (NGO) opinions, and academic interviews. Social data include regional water quality perceptions, perceptions of management/technology success, MAR community surveys, and interviews with NGO partners. Environmental and technical feasibility factors are determined from regional water quality data, geospatial information, land use/land change, and regional stratigraphy. Survey data suggest a wide range of criteria based on location and stakeholder perception. MAR and PSF technologies likely have the greatest environmental and technical potential for success but are highly influenced by community dynamics, individual perspective, and NGO involvement. RWH solutions are used frequently and are successful at reducing the water security threats of contamination by pathogens, arsenic, and salts. This MCDA informs us of community and stakeholder water resource decisions, specifically related to their objectives and preferences.

  18. Analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikhailov, V. G.; Kiseleva, T. V.

    2018-05-01

    In the paper the features of the analysis of the environmental and economic indicators of the industrial enterprise are considered. The purpose of the study is to improve the system of environmental and economic analysis at the enterprise for more accurate forecasting of its main environmental and economic indicators. The study of the main approaches to the implementation of environmental and economic analysis based on the corresponding systems of indicators with identification of the most significant factors was carried out. The main result of the study is the choice of a system for analyzing the environmental and economic indicators, maximally oriented to a specific enterprise, taking into account its production specific features. The practical significance of the study consists in the selection of an adequate system of indicators at enterprises to improve the effectiveness from preparation of an environmentally safe management decision.

  19. Decision Support For Digester Algae Integration For Improved Environmental And Economic Sustainability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-28

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has teamed with University of Idaho and Boise State University to make the use of ADs more attractive by implementing a two-stage AD and coupling additional processes to the system. The addition of a polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) reactor, algae cultivation system, and a biomass treatment system such as fast-pyrolysis or hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) would further sequester carbon and nutrients, as well as add valuable products that can be sold or used on-site to mitigate costs. The Decision-support for Digester-Algae IntegRation for Improved Environmental and Economic Sustainability (DAIRIEES) technoeconomic model will play a key role in evaluating the effectiveness and viability of this system to achieve economic and environmental sustainability by the dairy industry.

  20. Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaplan, S.

    1985-01-01

    According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

  1. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  2. Technical/economical analysis of bioenergy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solantausta, Y.

    1998-01-01

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: (1) To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels; (2) To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on technoeconomic basis to establish future development needs, and (3) To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned. (orig.)

  3. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  4. Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2’s Generalized Linear Mixed Model’s results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women’s endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  5. Advanced Coal Wind Hybrid: Economic Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles; Larson, Doug; Carr, Tom; Rath, Larry; Balash, Peter; Yih-Huei, Wan

    2008-11-28

    Growing concern over climate change is prompting new thinking about the technologies used to generate electricity. In the future, it is possible that new government policies on greenhouse gas emissions may favor electric generation technology options that release zero or low levels of carbon emissions. The Western U.S. has abundant wind and coal resources. In a world with carbon constraints, the future of coal for new electrical generation is likely to depend on the development and successful application of new clean coal technologies with near zero carbon emissions. This scoping study explores the economic and technical feasibility of combining wind farms with advanced coal generation facilities and operating them as a single generation complex in the Western US. The key questions examined are whether an advanced coal-wind hybrid (ACWH) facility provides sufficient advantages through improvements to the utilization of transmission lines and the capability to firm up variable wind generation for delivery to load centers to compete effectively with other supply-side alternatives in terms of project economics and emissions footprint. The study was conducted by an Analysis Team that consists of staff from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Western Interstate Energy Board (WIEB). We conducted a screening level analysis of the economic competitiveness and technical feasibility of ACWH generation options located in Wyoming that would supply electricity to load centers in California, Arizona or Nevada. Figure ES-1 is a simple stylized representation of the configuration of the ACWH options. The ACWH consists of a 3,000 MW coal gasification combined cycle power plant equipped with carbon capture and sequestration (G+CC+CCS plant), a fuel production or syngas storage facility, and a 1,500 MW wind plant. The ACWH project is connected to load centers by a 3,000 MW

  6. Factor Economic Analysis at Forestry Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Yu. Chik

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The article studies the importance of economic analysis according to the results of research of scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists. The calculation of the influence of factors on the change in the cost of harvesting timber products by cost items has been performed. The results of the calculation of the influence of factors on the change of costs on 1 UAH are determined using the full cost of sold products. The variable and fixed costs and their distribution are allocated that influences the calculation of the impact of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. The paper singles out the general results of calculating the influence of factors on cost changes on 1 UAH of sold products. According to the results of the analysis, the list of reserves for reducing the cost of production at forest enterprises was proposed. The main sources of reserves for reducing the prime cost of forest products at forest enterprises are investigated based on the conducted factor analysis.

  7. Applying economic principles to outcomes analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shauver, Melissa J; Chung, Kevin C

    2013-04-01

    This article presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. Types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A Readability Analysis of Selected Introductory Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel J.; Thompson, G. Rodney

    1981-01-01

    To aid secondary school and college level economics teachers as they select textbooks for introductory economics courses, this article recounts how teachers can use the Flesch Reading Ease Test to measure readability. Data are presented on application of the Flesch Reading Ease Test to 15 introductory economics textbooks. (Author/DB)

  9. Economic optimization of decisions with respect to dairy cow health management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houben, E.H.P.

    1995-01-01


    The research described in this thesis was directed towards decision support in dairy cow health management. Attention was focused on clinical mastitis, in many countries considered to be the most important dairy health problem. First a statistical analysis was carried out to obtain

  10. Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic analysis of savings and economic growth in Nigeria. ... a trivariate dynamic Granger causality model with savings, economic growth and foreign ... It is recommended that in the short run, policies in Nigeria should be geared towards ...

  11. Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis of Factors Affecting Technical Efficiency of Smallholders ... socio-economic characteristics which influence technical efficiency in maize production. ... Ministry of Agriculture and livestock, records, books, reports and internet.

  12. Economic analysis of basiliximab in renal transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keown, P A; Balshaw, R; Krueger, H; Baladi, J F

    2001-06-15

    groups. The principal costs associated with repeat admission to the transplant ward and the general ward were marginally higher for placebo ($7,395 vs. $6,300 and $5,986 vs. $4,625). Treatment of acute rejection and maintenance immunosuppressive drug use were associated with only limited savings as a result of basiliximab (savings <$200 each). Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameters affecting the savings as a result of using basiliximab were a reduction in the duration of initial and repeat hospitalization followed by the reduced risks of acute rejection and graft loss. Before accounting for the cost of the therapy itself, basiliximab produces an estimated economic saving of $4,554 during the first year after transplant, of which $3,344 is attributable to the reduced costs of graft dysfunction, including graft loss and dialysis ($1,722) and follow-up hospitalizations ($1,622). When marketed, basiliximab is expected to cost approximately $3,000 per course (two doses of 20 mg), resulting in a net first-year saving of $1,554. Under these circumstances, basiliximab can be considered a dominant therapy in renal transplantation.

  13. Mindfulness training increases cooperative decision making in economic exchanges: Evidence from fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, Ulrich; Gu, Xiaosi; Sharp, Carla; Hula, Andreas; Fonagy, Peter; Montague, P Read

    2016-09-01

    Emotions have been shown to exert influences on decision making during economic exchanges. Here we investigate the underlying neural mechanisms of a training regimen which is hypothesized to promote emotional awareness, specifically mindfulness training (MT). We test the hypothesis that MT increases cooperative economic decision making using fMRI in a randomized longitudinal design involving 8weeks of either MT or active control training (CT). We find that MT results in an increased willingness to cooperate indexed by higher acceptance rates to unfair monetary offers in the Ultimatum Game. While controlling for acceptance rates of monetary offers between intervention groups, subjects in the MT and CT groups show differential brain activation patterns. Specifically, a subset of more cooperative MT subjects displays increased activation in the septal region, an area linked to social attachment, which may drive the increased willingness to express cooperative behavior in the MT cohort. Furthermore, MT resulted in attenuated activity in anterior insula compared with the CT group in response to unfair monetary offers post-training, which may suggest that MT enables greater ability to effectively regulate the anterior insula and thereby promotes social cooperation. Finally, functional connectivity analyses show a coupling between the septal region and posterior insula in the MT group, suggesting an integration of interoceptive inputs. Together, these results highlight that MT may be employed in contexts where emotional regulation is required to promote social cooperation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

  15. An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

    2017-12-01

    For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

  16. Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipley, J.P.

    1978-01-01

    Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

  17. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

  18. A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matúš Adamkovič

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1 cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress; (2 executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control; (3 intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4 economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference, with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

  19. A Review of Consequences of Poverty on Economic Decision-Making: A Hypothesized Model of a Cognitive Mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamkovič, Matúš; Martončik, Marcel

    2017-01-01

    This review focuses on the issue of poverty affecting economic decision-making. By critically evaluating existing studies, the authors propose a structural model detailing the cognitive mechanism involved in how poverty negatively impacts economic decision-making, and explores evidence supporting the basis for the formation of this model. The suggested mechanism consists of a relationship between poverty and four other factors: (1) cognitive load (e.g., experiencing negative affect and stress); (2) executive functions (e.g., attention, working memory, and self-control); (3) intuition/deliberation in decision-making; and (4) economic decision-making (e.g., time-discounting and risk preference), with a final addition of financial literacy as a covariate. This paper focuses on shortfalls in published research, and delves further into the proposed model.

  20. Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wackowski, R.K.; Stevens, C.E.; Masoner, L.O.; Attanucci, V.; Larson, J.L.; Aslesen, K.S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO 2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO 2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

  1. Health economic data in reimbursement of new medical technologies: importance of the socio-economic burden as a decision-making criterion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgi Iskrov

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Assessment and appraisal of new medical technologies require a balance between the interests of different stakeholders. Final decision should take into account the societal value of new therapies.Objective: This perspective paper discusses the socio-economic burden of disease as a specific reimbursement decision-making criterion and calls for the inclusion of it as a counterbalance to the cost-effectiveness and budget impact criteria.Results/Conclusions: Socio-economic burden is a decision-making criterion, accounting for diseases, for which the assessed medical technology is indicated. This indicator is usually researched through cost-of-illness studies that systematically quantify the socio-economic burden of diseases on the individual and on the society. This is a very important consideration as it illustrates direct budgetary consequences of diseases in the health system and indirect costs associated with patient or carer productivity losses. By measuring and comparing the socio-economic burden of different diseases to society, health authorities and payers could benefit in optimizing priority setting and resource allocation.New medical technologies, especially innovative therapies, present an excellent case study for the inclusion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making. Assessment and appraisal have been greatly concentrated so far on cost-effectiveness and budget impact, marginalizing all other considerations. In this context, data on disease burden and inclusion of explicit criterion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making may be highly beneficial. Realizing the magnitude of the lost socio-economic contribution resulting from diseases in question could be a reasonable way for policy makers to accept a higher valuation of innovative therapies.

  2. Health Economic Data in Reimbursement of New Medical Technologies: Importance of the Socio-Economic Burden as a Decision-Making Criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskrov, Georgi; Dermendzhiev, Svetlan; Miteva-Katrandzhieva, Tsonka; Stefanov, Rumen

    2016-01-01

    Assessment and appraisal of new medical technologies require a balance between the interests of different stakeholders. Final decision should take into account the societal value of new therapies. This perspective paper discusses the socio-economic burden of disease as a specific reimbursement decision-making criterion and calls for the inclusion of it as a counterbalance to the cost-effectiveness and budget impact criteria. Socio-economic burden is a decision-making criterion, accounting for diseases, for which the assessed medical technology is indicated. This indicator is usually researched through cost-of-illness studies that systematically quantify the socio-economic burden of diseases on the individual and on the society. This is a very important consideration as it illustrates direct budgetary consequences of diseases in the health system and indirect costs associated with patient or carer productivity losses. By measuring and comparing the socio-economic burden of different diseases to society, health authorities and payers could benefit in optimizing priority setting and resource allocation. New medical technologies, especially innovative therapies, present an excellent case study for the inclusion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making. Assessment and appraisal have been greatly concentrated so far on cost-effectiveness and budget impact, marginalizing all other considerations. In this context, data on disease burden and inclusion of explicit criterion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making may be highly beneficial. Realizing the magnitude of the lost socio-economic contribution resulting from diseases in question could be a reasonable way for policy makers to accept a higher valuation of innovative therapies.

  3. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes

  4. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original

  5. Multivariate Analysis of Household Decision Making, Contraceptive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    contraceptives and fertility behaviour of ever-married men in Nigeria. ... exposure. The study concluded that women empowerment in decision ... through the prevention of unwanted and unplanned births is one of the most effective .... visitors who slept in the household the previous night before the survey) were eligible ...

  6. The Economics of Pricing and Customer Decision-Making. Research Notes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Debra J.

    1996-01-01

    Reviews two research articles. Gratton and Taylor, using economic analysis and market research, found that consumers of leisure experiences complained about price increases, but continued consuming. They recommend discounts for those in need and price increases focusing on service quality. Greenleaf and Lehmann identified 11 reasons why people…

  7. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

    2010-09-16

    Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

  8. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  9. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  10. Environmental and economic assessment methods for waste management decision-support: possibilities and limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finnveden, Göran; Björklund, Anna; Moberg, Asa; Ekvall, Tomas

    2007-06-01

    A large number of methods and approaches that can be used for supporting waste management decisions at different levels in society have been developed. In this paper an overview of methods is provided and preliminary guidelines for the choice of methods are presented. The methods introduced include: Environmental Impact Assessment, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Cost-effectiveness Analysis, Life-cycle Costing, Risk Assessment, Material Flow Accounting, Substance Flow Analysis, Energy Analysis, Exergy Analysis, Entropy Analysis, Environmental Management Systems, and Environmental Auditing. The characteristics used are the types of impacts included, the objects under study and whether the method is procedural or analytical. The different methods can be described as systems analysis methods. Waste management systems thinking is receiving increasing attention. This is, for example, evidenced by the suggested thematic strategy on waste by the European Commission where life-cycle analysis and life-cycle thinking get prominent positions. Indeed, life-cycle analyses have been shown to provide policy-relevant and consistent results. However, it is also clear that the studies will always be open to criticism since they are simplifications of reality and include uncertainties. This is something all systems analysis methods have in common. Assumptions can be challenged and it may be difficult to generalize from case studies to policies. This suggests that if decisions are going to be made, they are likely to be made on a less than perfect basis.

  11. Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Matheson

    2004-01-01

    Critics of economic impact studies that purport to show that mega-events such as the Olympics bring large benefits to the communities “lucky” enough to host them frequently cite the use of inappropriate multipliers as a primary reason why these impact studies overstate the true economic gains to the hosts of these events. This brief paper shows in a numerical example how mega-events may lead to inflated multipliers and exaggerated claims of economic benefits.

  12. Psychology of Economics in the Analysis of Consumer Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Jonas Alves Correia

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Psychology of Economics addresses issues far beyond market research. Thus, studies in this area also observe variables such as work, unemployment, decisions about purchases and savings, investments, financing, responses to advertising, among others. The present research was carried out with the objective of analyzing, through the fundamentals of consumer behavior, its relation to the propensity for compulsive or superfluous consumption. This quantitative study relates, using as means of phenomena and variables a description of the consumers behavior through the statistical tool Propensity Score Matching of Stata software. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect the data, which was applied online from April to August in 2016. Data analysis was performed by the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS regression with controlled dummy variables (dependent variable, whether or not it belongs to the consumer group Compulsive by the set of explanatory (independent variables. The results showed that the average monthly spending of compulsive consumers increases, and the higher the income of individuals, the greater the spending on unnecessary or superfluous consumption. Considering the gender variable, male individuals have higher levels of unnecessary spending and are prone to superfluous consumption. Thus, consumption is composed of influences for purchase and that the consumer determines consumption, according to economic position (income factor and cultural factors (customs, needs, impulsivities within the society.

  13. Minimizing Uncertainties Impact in Decision Making with an Applicability Study for Economic Power Dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Shaobu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Fan, Rui [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Zhuanfang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This report summaries the work performed under the LDRD project on the preliminary study on knowledge automation, where specific focus has been made on the investigation of the impact of uncertainties of human decision making onto the optimization of the process operation. At first the statistics on signals from the Brain-Computing Interface (BCI) is analyzed so as to obtain the uncertainties characterization of human operators during the decision making phase using the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This is then followed by the discussions of an architecture that reveals the equivalence between optimization and closed loop feedback control design, where it has been shown that all the optimization problems can be transferred into the control design problem for closed loop systems. This has led to a “closed loop” framework, where the structure of the decision making is shown to be subjected to both process disturbances and controller’s uncertainties. The latter can well represent the uncertainties or randomness occurred during human decision making phase. As a result, a stochastic optimization problem has been formulated and a novel solution has been proposed using probability density function (PDF) shaping for both the cost function and the constraints using stochastic distribution control concept. A sufficient condition has been derived that guarantees the convergence of the optimal solution and discussions have been made for both the total probabilistic solution and chanced constrained optimization which have been well-studied in optimal power flows (OPF) area. A simple case study has been carried out for the economic dispatch of powers for a grid system when there are distributed energy resources (DERs) in the system, and encouraging results have been obtained showing that a significant savings on the generation cost can be expected.

  14. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, M.D.

    1998-01-01

    An economic study of the the behaviour of financial managers of utility companies was presented. The study examined whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions compared to other models. In this study, the Rust (1987) empirical technique was extended to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. Reasonable estimates were obtained from data of shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGE) for the transaction costs associated with a call. It was concluded that the managers of the PGE clearly take into account the value of the option to delay the call when making their call decisions

  15. [Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

  16. Ultrasonic boiler inspection and economic analysis guidelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    Boiler tube failures cause approximately 6% availability loss of large fossil-fired power generating plants. This loss can be reduced by systematic approaches using ultrasonic examination and root cause failure analysis methods. Two projects sponsored by EPRI have provided utility engineers with guidelines for performing ultrasonic examinations and with details on 22 types of tube failure mechanisms. A manual has been published that provides descriptions of typical locations, superficial appearances, damage mechanisms, metallurgy, microstructural changes, likely root causes, and potential corrective actions. Application of the principles in the manual is being demonstrated in an EPRI-funded project at 10 electric utilities over the next two years. Guidelines have been published that prescribe the activities necessary for ultrasonic examinations of boiler tubes. Eight essential elements of a boiler examination should be performed to assure that possible economic benefits are obtained. Work was supported by EPRI under RP 1890 and RP 1865. A software package has been developed for effectively planning inspections for wall thinning in fossil-fired boiler tubing. The software assists in minimizing costs associated with maintenance, such as inspection and repair, while the life of the boiler is maximized

  17. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  18. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  19. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

  20. PATIENT-CENTERED DECISION MAKING: LESSONS FROM MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR QUANTIFYING PATIENT PREFERENCES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Zaiser, Erica; Heywood, James; Hamed, Alaa

    2018-01-01

    Patient preferences should be a central consideration in healthcare decision making. However, stories of patients challenging regulatory and reimbursement decisions has led to questions on whether patient voices are being considered sufficiently during those decision making processes. This has led some to argue that it is necessary to quantify patient preferences before they can be adequately considered. This study considers the lessons from the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for efforts to quantify patient preferences. It defines MCDA and summarizes the benefits it can provide to decision makers, identifies examples of MCDAs that have involved patients, and summarizes good practice guidelines as they relate to quantifying patient preferences. The guidance developed to support the use of MCDA in healthcare provide some useful considerations for the quantification of patient preferences, namely that researchers should give appropriate consideration to: the heterogeneity of patient preferences, and its relevance to decision makers; the cognitive challenges posed by different elicitation methods; and validity of the results they produce. Furthermore, it is important to consider how the relevance of these considerations varies with the decision being supported. The MCDA literature holds important lessons for how patient preferences should be quantified to support healthcare decision making.

  1. Economic Analysis of Biological Invasions in Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomas P. Holmes; Julian Aukema; Jeffrey Englin; Robert G. Haight; Kent Kovacs; Brian Leung

    2014-01-01

    Biological invasions of native forests by nonnative pests result from complex stochastic processes that are difficult to predict. Although economic optimization models describe efficient controls across the stages of an invasion, the ability to calibrate such models is constrained by lack of information on pest population dynamics and consequent economic damages. Here...

  2. A multidisciplinary-economic framework of analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piet Keizer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination, human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities, to satisfy them closely, interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with scarce natural resources. It assumes that perfect rationality and non-sociality create a so-called economic world and analyzes the economic mechanism of allocation of scarce resources. Neoclassical economists use this world as a theoretical foundation for their empirical research. Heterodox economics rejects this strategy of isolating one motivation, a strategy that ignores the psychic and the social problem. However, the heterodox idea of human motivation, being variable and endogenous, is badly analyzed. This leads the author to construct a psychic and a social world that is completely comparable with the agent-structure model of the economic world. The three isolated worlds are integrated by analyzing the interactions between the three worlds. In the integrated world, the economic structure, the psychic structure and the social structure are one another’s foundations. This human world gives familiar economic concepts such as utility, efficiency, rationality, price, value, cost and benefit, a different meaning. Similarly, psychic concepts such as Self, willpower and personality and social concepts such as status, power, culture and morality, are given different meanings. To make the model more realistic, it should be made dynamic and historical and be placed in the context of the world as an open system.

  3. Air Force Pilot Retention: An Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Force impacts retention. Within the field of labor economics , an alternative labor market theory has developed which contrasts with typical competitive...this section. 60 NOTES ON CHAPTER III 1 Sherwin Rosen. "The Theory of Equalizing Differences," _Handboof•f Labor Economics , Volume 1, (New York

  4. Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results.

  5. Economic Performance Analysis of National Research and Development Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S. S.; Yun, S. W.; Kim, S. E.

    2016-01-01

    There are a lot of differences between these two evaluation programs in terms of their main objectives, assessment items, and evaluation methods by item. When considering the recent evaluation trend of being more concerned with the objective and scientifically well-founded base of judgment than the qualitative results data, there seems to be much supplement and improvement points in both evaluation programs. Firstly, the MSIP's evaluation program which is known as 'The performance analysis of national R and D program in Korea is applying the principle of ex-post evaluation for the overall performances of R and D activities focusing on the scientific and technological outputs, economic effects, and social performances such as the training of science and engineering personnel. Its report has been done and published by the collaboration of MSIP and KISTEP(Korea Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning). There seems to be a trend that the economic contributions to the national economy and the industries by national R and D projects have been underestimated due to the difficulties of not presenting properly the reliable quantitative effects even though they have contributed not only to the real economy and economic growth but to the industrial productions and public benefits. The key reasons to this phenomenon might be the deficiency of perception for evaluation tools and methodologies development and the original difficulty of evaluation for R and D performances. Especially the evaluation results for national R and D projects could impact on the investment decision on the long-term national R and D program, with being based on the investment efficiency or the necessity and urgency which might be represented by evaluation results

  6. Women in development : issues for economic and sector analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Women in Development Division

    1989-01-01

    This paper highlights issues and action plans concerning women in economic and sector analysis and in project design. The paper focuses on the majority of women who are poor. It emphasizes measures to include women in development that contribute to economic performance, poverty reduction, slower population growth, and other broad development objectives. The paper concludes that women already contribute far more economically than is usually recognized. By expanding women's economic choices, ou...

  7. The role of testosterone and estrogen in consumer behavior and social & economic decision making: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanton, Steven J

    2017-06-01

    A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition.This manuscript reviews the current literature on the actions of the steroid hormones testosterone and estradiol in shaping humans' behavior within two applied contexts, specifically consumer behavior and decision making (both social and economic). The theoretical argument put forth is that steroids shape these everyday behaviors and choices in service to being more competitive in achieving long-term goals related to resource acquisition, mating success, and social dominance. In addition, a discussion of the increased research focus on the role of steroids in other applied business domains will highlight the relevant applications of basic science discoveries in behavioral endocrinology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

  9. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keeney, R.L; Nair, K.

    1975-01-01

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  10. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  11. Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Waal, AJ

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

  12. SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  13. Identifying a preservation zone using multicriteria decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farashi, A.; Naderi, M.; Parvian, N.

    2016-07-01

    Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine. (Author)

  14. Economic impact analysis of short line railroads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This research project assesses the economic role and impact of short line railroads in the state of Louisiana. While relatively small in : scope, with 11 operators and approximately 500 miles of track, short line railroads play a significant role in ...

  15. Diets and Health: How Food Decisions Are Shaped by Biology, Economics, Geography, and Social Interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drewnowski, Adam; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2015-09-01

    Health is shaped by both personal choices and features of the food environment. Food-choice decisions depend on complex interactions between biology and behavior, and are further modulated by the built environment and community structure. That lower-income families have lower-quality diets is well established. Yet, diet quality also varies across small geographic neighborhoods and can be influenced by transportation, retail, and ease of access to healthy foods, as well as by attitudes, beliefs, and social interactions. The learnings from the Seattle Obesity Study (SOS II) can be usefully applied to the much larger, more complex, and far more socially and ethnically diverse urban environment of New York City. The Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP) is ideally positioned to advance the understanding of health disparities by exploring the multiple underpinnings of food decision making. By combining geo-localized food shopping and consumption data with health behaviors, diet quality measures, and biomarkers, also coded by geographic location, the KHP will create the first-of-its-kind bio-behavioral, economic, and cultural atlas of diet quality and health for New York City.

  16. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1991-01-01

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  17. Sex and the money--How gender stereotypes modulate economic decision-making: An ERP study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    In the present event-related potential study, we investigated whether and how participants playing the ultimatum game as responders modulate their decisions according to the proposers' stereotypical identity. The proposers' identity was manipulated using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender (e.g., Teacher; Engineer), paired with either feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., Anna; David). Greater FRN amplitudes reflected the early processing of the conflict between the strategic rule (i.e., earning as much money as possible) and ready-to-go responses (i.e., refusing unequal offers and discriminating proposers according to their stereotype). Responders were found to rely on a dual-process system (i.e., automatic and heuristic-based system 1 vs. cognitively costly and deliberative system 2), the P300 amplitude reflecting the switch from a decision making system to another. Greater P300 amplitudes were found in response to both fair and unfair offers and male-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting an automatic decision making based on heuristics, while lower P300 amplitudes were found in response to 3€ offers and the female-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting a more deliberative reasoning. Overall, the results indicate that participants were more motivated to engage in a costly deliberative reasoning associated with an increase in acceptation rate when playing with female-stereotyped proposers, who may have induced more positive and emphatic feelings in the participants than did male-stereotyped proposers. Then, we assume that people with an occupation stereotypically marked with female gender and engaged in an economic negotiation may benefit from their occupation at least in the case their counterparts lose their money if the negotiation fails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Caring Cooperators and Powerful Punishers: Differential Effects of Induced Care and Power Motivation on Different Types of Economic Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chierchia, G; Lesemann, F H Parianen; Snower, D; Vogel, M; Singer, T

    2017-09-11

    Standard economic theory postulates that decisions are driven by stable context-insensitive preferences, while motivation psychology suggests they are driven by distinct context-sensitive motives with distinct evolutionary goals and characteristic psycho-physiological and behavioral patterns. To link these fields and test how distinct motives could differentially predict different types of economic decisions, we experimentally induced participants with either a Care or a Power motive, before having them take part in a suite of classic game theoretical paradigms involving monetary exchange. We show that the Care induction alone raised scores on a latent factor of cooperation-related behaviors, relative to a control condition, while, relative to Care, Power raised scores on a punishment-related factor. These findings argue against context-insensitive stable preferences and theories of strong reciprocity and in favor of a motive-based approach to economic decision making: Care and Power motivation have a dissociable fingerprint in shaping either cooperative or punishment behaviors.

  19. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanduri, Vishnu; Kazemzadeh, Narges

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ► We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ► Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ► Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ► Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO 2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  20. Altered economic decision-making in abstinent heroin addicts: Evidence from the ultimatum game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yu; Zhao, Liyan; Yao, Qi; Ding, Lixiang

    2016-08-03

    The development and persistence of drug addiction has been suggested to involve decision-making deficits. The Ultimatum Game is a widely used economic decision-making paradigm that illustrates the tension between financial self-interest and fairness motives. The behavior of responders in the Ultimatum Game has been associated with emotional reactions and cognitive control abilities, both of which are dysregulated in drug addicts. In this study, we investigated whether this economic decision-making process that involves considerations of social norms is affected by heroin addiction. Heroin addicts (n=17) and demographically matched healthy control subjects (n=18) were recruited to play the part of responders in the Ultimatum Game, during which they decided to accept or reject the monetary offers proposed by strangers. The offers were manipulated by varying the stake sizes and fairness scales. The rejection rates of all of the offer categories, response times, fairness judgments, and impulsivity were compared between heroin addicts and healthy controls. Compared with healthy subjects, the rejection rates of most unfair offers in the Ultimatum Game were significantly higher under low-offer-size conditions among heroin addicts. In contrast, the most unfair offers were more likely to be accepted by heroin addicts in the high-offer-size condition than by healthy subjects. The ratings of unfairness were equal in both conditions although the rejection rates were different. Heroin addicts had higher scores on BIS attentional/cognitive impulsivity and non-planning impulsivity, but not in motor impulsivity. Rejection rates to most unfair offers under low-offer-size conditions significantly correlated with score on BIS non-planning impulsivity and total score of impulsivity. Heroin addicts differentially responded under different stake-level conditions in the Ultimatum Game, with emotional impulses in low-offer-size conditions and selfish motives in the face of high monetary

  1. Transparency in Economic and Political Decision-Making: The Identification of Sunshine Rules for Transparent Lobbying

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laboutková Šárka

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Lobbying transparency seems to have been a challenging topic for nearly a decade. For the purposes of the article, the authors focus on a contextual analysis of rules and measures that offers both a broad as well as comprehensive view of the required transparency of lobbying activities and the environment in which decisions are made. In this regard, focusing on the sunshine principles/sunshine rules (not purely limited to laws provides a grasp of the whole issue in a broader context. From a methodological point of view, the exploratory approach was chosen and the coding procedure is mostly dichotomous. As a result, seven key areas with 70 indicators have been identified in terms of transparency of lobbying and decision-making.

  2. The economic impact of pilgrimage: An economic impact analysis of pilgrimage expenditures in Galicia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graave, Elisabeth J.E.; Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we calculate the economic impact of pilgrimage to Santiago de Compostela in the NUTS 2 region Galicia (Spain) in 2010. This economic impact is relevant to policymakers and other stakeholders dealing with religious tourism in Galicia. The analysis is based on the Input-Output model.

  3. Optimal Decision-Making in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ Model under Restricted Space: A Non-Linear Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pattnaik

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the concept of fuzzy Non-Linear Programming Technique is applied to solve an economic order quantity (EOQ model under restricted space. Since various types of uncertainties and imprecision are inherent in real inventory problems they are classically modeled using the approaches from the probability theory. However, there are uncertainties that cannot be appropriately treated by usual probabilistic models. The questions how to define inventory optimization tasks in such environment how to interpret optimal solutions arise. This paper allows the modification of the Single item EOQ model in presence of fuzzy decision making process where demand is related to the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity produced/Purchased. This paper considers the modification of objective function and storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters. The model is developed for the problem by employing different modeling approaches over an infinite planning horizon. It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered and the demand per unit compares both fuzzy non linear and other models. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and ugh MATLAB (R2009a version software, the two and three dimensional diagrams are represented to the application. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values and to draw managerial insights of the decision problem.

  4. Decision Analysis for Metric Selection on a Clinical Quality Scorecard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guth, Rebecca M; Storey, Patricia E; Vitale, Michael; Markan-Aurora, Sumita; Gordon, Randolph; Prevost, Traci Q; Dunagan, Wm Claiborne; Woeltje, Keith F

    2016-09-01

    Clinical quality scorecards are used by health care institutions to monitor clinical performance and drive quality improvement. Because of the rapid proliferation of quality metrics in health care, BJC HealthCare found it increasingly difficult to select the most impactful scorecard metrics while still monitoring metrics for regulatory purposes. A 7-step measure selection process was implemented incorporating Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis, which is a systematic process that considers key criteria that must be satisfied in order to make the best decision. The decision analysis process evaluates what metrics will most appropriately fulfill these criteria, as well as identifies potential risks associated with a particular metric in order to identify threats to its implementation. Using this process, a list of 750 potential metrics was narrowed to 25 that were selected for scorecard inclusion. This decision analysis process created a more transparent, reproducible approach for selecting quality metrics for clinical quality scorecards. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

  6. An Integrated Decision Support System with Hydrological Processes and Socio-economic Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yang; Disse, Markus; Yu, Ruide

    2017-04-01

    The debate over the effectiveness of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in practice has lasted for years. As the complexity and scope of IWRM increases, the difficulties of hydrological modeling is shifting from the model itself into the links with other cognate sciences, to understand the interactions among water, earth, ecosystem and humans. This work presents the design and development of a decision support system (DSS) that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision making on social-economic assessments and land use changes. Discharge and glacier geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model WASA. Irrigation and ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO. Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological models were integrated as inputs into the DSS in three types of links: regression equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs into DSS as the models running parallel in the simulation periods. Within DSS, three types of logics were established: equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming was realized in C++. The implementation of DSS takes place in the Tarim River Basin. With the mainstream of 1,321km and located in an arid area in northwest China, the Tarim River is China's longest inland river. The Tarim basin on the northern edge of the Taklamakan desert is an extremely arid region. In this region, agricultural water consumption and allocation management are crucial to address the conflicts among irrigation water users from upstream to downstream. Since 2011, the German Ministry of Science and Education BMBF established the Sino-German SuMaRiO project, for the sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River. Project SuMaRiO focus on realizable management strategies, considering social, economic and ecological criteria. This will have positive effects for nearly 10 million inhabitants of different ethnic groups

  7. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  8. Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

  9. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  10. The Importance of Economic Perspective and Quantitative Approaches in Oncology Value Frameworks of Drug Selection and Shared Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldeck, A Reginald; Botteman, Marc F; White, Richard E; van Hout, Ben A

    2017-06-01

    The debate around value in oncology drug selection has been prominent in recent years, and several professional bodies have furthered this debate by advocating for so-called value frameworks. Herein, we provide a viewpoint on these value frameworks, emphasizing the need to consider 4 key aspects: (1) the economic underpinnings of value; (2) the importance of the perspective adopted in the valuation; (3) the importance of the difference between absolute and relative measures of risk and measuring patient preferences; and (4) the recognition of multiple quality-of-life (QoL) domains, and the aggregation and valuation of those domains, through utilities within a multicriteria decision analysis, may allow prioritization of QoL above the tallying of safety events, particularly in a value framework focusing on the individual patient. While several frameworks exist, they incorporate different attributes and-importantly-assess value from alternative perspectives, including those of patients, regulators, payers, and society. The various perspectives necessarily lead to potentially different, if not sometimes divergent, conclusions about the valuation. We show that the perspective of the valuation affects the framing of the risk/benefit question and the methodology to measure the individual patient choice, or preference, as opposed to the collective, or population, choice. We focus specifically on the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Value Framework. We argue that its laudable intent to assist in shared clinician-patient decision making can be augmented by more formally adopting methodology underpinned by micro- and health economic concepts, as well as application of formal quantitative approaches. Our recommendations for value frameworks focusing on the individual patient, such as the ASCO Value Framework, are 3-fold: (1) ensure that stakeholders understand the importance of the adopted (economic) perspective; (2) consider using exclusively absolute measures of

  11. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DAVIS, FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE, GREGORY C.; PICKETT, WILLIAM W.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

  12. The economic rationale for investing decisions innovative projects rationalization of investments for innovative projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. O. Zhitinskaya

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a selection of methods for determining the feasibility of an investment-innovative project. Estimated indicators are identified analytically, on their basis a conclusion is made about the economic efficiency and feasibility of the project, which is the basis of its competitiveness. Such growth analytics is necessary, since the social and economic development of the country and the region largely depends on the investment climate, which is facilitated by the legislation of the Russian Federation (the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, the law of the Russian Federation on the regulation of investment activities, etc.. Since competitiveness is also determined by the economic feasibility and financial solvency of innovative projects, modern information and software, as well as the methodology for project appraisal and the corresponding order of their implementation, are needed. In the Russian Federation, a method is used to assess the efficiency of capital investments in capitalist countries, as well as the methodology of economic (competitive analysis of investment-innovative projects. The basis of the method is that reimbursement of investments occurs in two economic forms: net profit and depreciation (net income. Of the numerous methods for assessing the feasibility of investment, the most often used along with discount methods (taking into account the factor of money changes over time, statistical methods with determining the payback period and the average rate of return on investment. Defined indicators: the net present value (NPV and the internal rate of return (IRR. The methodology specified in the article is useful to the investor in order to rationalize investment flows, helps to achieve the maximum IRR. The implementation of the innovative project serves the competitiveness of the manufacturing enterprise by increasing the technical and technological levels of the products.

  13. The Use of Economic Evaluation to Inform Newborn Screening Policy Decisions: The Washington State Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosse, Scott D; Thompson, John D; Ding, Yao; Glass, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Newborn screening not only saves lives but can also yield net societal economic benefit, in addition to benefits such as improved quality of life to affected individuals and families. Calculations of net economic benefit from newborn screening include the monetary equivalent of avoided deaths and reductions in costs of care for complications associated with late-diagnosed individuals minus the additional costs of screening, diagnosis, and treatment associated with prompt diagnosis. Since 2001 the Washington State Department of Health has successfully implemented an approach to conducting evidence-based economic evaluations of disorders proposed for addition to the state-mandated newborn screening panel. Economic evaluations can inform policy decisions on the expansion of newborn screening panels. This article documents the use of cost-benefit models in Washington State as part of the rule-making process that resulted in the implementation of screening for medium-chain acyl-CoA dehydrogenase (MCAD) deficiency and 4 other metabolic disorders in 2004, cystic fibrosis (CF) in 2006, 15 other metabolic disorders in 2008, and severe combined immune deficiency (SCID) in 2014. We reviewed Washington State Department of Health internal reports and spreadsheet models of expected net societal benefit of adding disorders to the state newborn screening panel. We summarize the assumptions and findings for 2 models (MCAD and CF) and discuss them in relation to findings in the peer-reviewed literature. The MCAD model projected a benefit-cost ratio of 3.4 to 1 based on assumptions of a 20.0 percentage point reduction in infant mortality and a 13.9 percentage point reduction in serious developmental disability. The CF model projected a benefit-cost ratio of 4.0-5.4 to 1 for a discount rate of 3%-4% and a plausible range of 1-2 percentage point reductions in deaths up to age 10 years. The Washington State cost-benefit models of newborn screening were broadly consistent with peer

  14. Economics In Optical Design, Analysis, And Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willey, Ronald R.

    1983-10-01

    There are indications that we are entering an era wherein economics will play an increasing role in the optical design and production process. Economics has always been a factor in the competition between commercial ventures in the product arena. Now, we may begin to see competition between different technologies for the scarce resources of the society, including money. A proper design approach begins with a thorough examination and refinement of the requirements from the top down. The interrelationships of the various components must be properly understood and balanced. The specifications must be clear, complete, and realistic. Improper or incomplete system design can cause an extensive waste of resources. The detail optical design to meet the performance requirements has sometimes been the only part of the process that the designer has considered his own responsibility. The final optimization should also consider economic related factors: the cost of tolerances, the available tools test plates, materials, and test equipment. In the preliminary design stage, he should have decided which alignment and test methods are most appropriate to the system. The distribution of tolerances in an optical/mechanical system is a frequently neglected opportunity to reduce cost. We have reported previously on our work in this area, and expand further on it in the context of this paper. The designer now has an opportunity to generate better designs at a lower cost that are more economical to produce. The watchword for the 1980's may become the one found in the assembly automation industry: "more, better, for less".

  15. Directors’ and Officers’ Liability: Economic Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. C. Leyens (Patrick); M.G. Faure (Michael)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractThis paper will be published as a chapter of the forthcoming volume ‘Directors & Officers Liability’ edited by Simon F. Deakin, Helmut Koziol, and Olaf Riss. It explores D&O liability from a law and economics perspective with a view to identify trade-offs of different legal settings.

  16. Integrated Approach To The Analysis Of The Quality Of Socio-Economic Regional Development Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Michailovich Kachalov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Prospects of the methods of the analysis and improvement of quality of governance the socio-economic systems application, based conceptual provisions of the system theory of economics, multilevel stratification of the economic space and the operational economical risk management theory are considered. For mesoeconomics, the types of system resources of the economy are defined. Also, it is analyses the influence on the quality of governance socio-economic region development the disparity of different types of system economical resources. Potential possibilities of the improvement of quality of governance due to thinner stratification of economical space and improvement the interaction parameters of the main actors of regional economic space are revealed. Leaning on the operational theory of risk management, ways of justification of administrative, strategic decisions by identification of the relevant economic risk factors and on the basis of received information development the program of anti-risk measures are offered. The methodical solutions promoting successful introduction of considered tools in practice of regional government are proposed.

  17. Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.

    2010-07-01

    It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.

  18. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Young Gun; Lee, Han Myung; Song, Ki Dong; Lee, Man Ki; Kim, Seung Su; Moon, Kee Hwan; Chung, Whan Sam; Kim, Kyung Pyo; Cho, Sang Goo

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to clarify the role of nuclear power generation under the circumstances of growing concerns about environmental impact and to help decision making in electricity sector. In this study, efforts are made to estimate electricity power generation cost of major power options by incorporating additional cost to reduce environmental impact and to suggest an optimal plant mix in this case. (Author)

  20. ANALYSIS OF FACTORS WHICH AFFECTING THE ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suparna Wijaya

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available High economic growth and sustainable process are main conditions for sustainability of economic country development. They are also become measures of the success of the country's economy. Factors which tested in this study are economic and non-economic factors which impacting economic development. This study has a goal to explain the factors that influence on macroeconomic Indonesia. It used linear regression modeling approach. The analysis result showed that Tax Amnesty, Exchange Rate, Inflation, and interest rate, they jointly can bring effect which amounted to 77.6% on economic growth whereas the remaining 22.4% is the influenced by other variables which not observed in this study. Keywords: tax amnesty, exchange rates, inflation, SBI and economic growth

  1. Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.

    2000-01-01

    The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

  2. Analysis And Assistant Planning System Ofregional Agricultural Economic Inform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jie; Zhang, Junfeng

    For the common problems existed in regional development and planning, we try to design a decision support system for assisting regional agricultural development and alignment as a decision-making tool for local government and decision maker. The analysis methods of forecast, comparative advantage, liner programming and statistical analysis are adopted. According to comparative advantage theory, the regional advantage can be determined by calculating and comparing yield advantage index (YAI), Scale advantage index (SAI), Complicated advantage index (CAI). Combining with GIS, agricultural data are presented as a form of graph such as area, bar and pie to uncover the principle and trend for decision-making which can't be found in data table. This system provides assistant decisions for agricultural structure adjustment, agro-forestry development and planning, and can be integrated to information technologies such as RS, AI and so on.

  3. Computerization of the safeguards analysis decision process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that safeguards regulations are evolving to meet new demands for timeliness and sensitivity in detecting the loss or unauthorized use of sensitive nuclear materials. The opportunities to meet new rules, particularly in bulk processing plants, involve developing techniques which use modern, computerized process control and information systems. Using these computerized systems in the safeguards analysis involves all the challenges of the man-machine interface experienced in the typical process control application and adds new dimensions to accuracy requirements, data analysis, and alarm resolution in the regulatory environment

  4. Including adverse drug events in economic evaluations of anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs for adult rheumatoid arthritis: a systematic review of economic decision analytic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heather, Eleanor M; Payne, Katherine; Harrison, Mark; Symmons, Deborah P M

    2014-02-01

    Anti-tumour necrosis factor-α drugs (anti-TNFs) have revolutionised the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). More effective than standard non-biological disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs), anti-TNFs are also substantially more expensive. Consequently, a number of model-based economic evaluations have been conducted to establish the relative cost-effectiveness of anti-TNFs. However, anti-TNFs are associated with an increased risk of adverse drug events (ADEs) such as serious infections relative to nbDMARDs. Such ADEs will likely impact on both the costs and consequences of anti-TNFs, for example, through hospitalisations and forced withdrawal from treatment. The aim of this review was to identify and critically appraise if, and how, ADEs have been incorporated into model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of anti-TNFs for adult patients with RA. A systematic literature review was performed. Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid EMBASE; Web of Science; NHS Economic Evaluations Database) were searched for literature published between January 1990 and October 2013 using electronic search strategies. The reference lists of retrieved studies were also hand searched. In addition, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence technology appraisals were searched to identify economic models used to inform UK healthcare decision making. Only full economic evaluations that had used an economic model to evaluate biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) (including anti-TNFs) for adult patients with RA and had incorporated the direct costs and/or consequences of ADEs were critically appraised. To be included, studies also had to be available as a full text in English. Data extracted included general study characteristics and information concerning the methods used to incorporate ADEs and any associated assumptions made. The extracted data were synthesised using a tabular and narrative format. A total of 43 model-based economic evaluations of bDMARDs for adult RA

  5. Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienast, Philip; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)

  6. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fries, Juliana.

    1988-01-01

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  7. Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzawa, Hirofumi

    2005-06-01

    Social common capital provides members of society with those services and institutional arrangements that are crucial in maintaining human and cultural life. The term æsocial common capital' is comprised of three categories: natural capital, social infrastructure, and institutional capital. Natural capital consists of all natural environment and natural resources including the earth's atmosphere. Social infrastructure consists of roads, bridges, public transportation systems, electricity, and other public utilities. Institutional capital includes hospitals, educational institutions, judicial and police systems, public administrative services, financial and monetary institutions, and cultural capital. This book attempts to modify and extend the theoretical premises of orthodox economic theory to make them broad enough to analyze the economic implications of social common capital. It further aims to find the institutional arrangements and policy measures that will bring about the optimal state of affairs.

  8. Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

    2017-06-01

    For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Application of decision analysis in antibiotic formulary choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymusiak-Mutnick, B; Mutnick, A H

    1994-01-01

    To introduce the reader to the fundamentals involved in using decision analysis as a tool in evaluating the associated costs and effectiveness of comparable therapeutic agents. Currently available literature citations were used to provide the reader with basic references whose purpose is to provide a step-by-step approach for using Decision Analysis in conducting a cost-effective comparison of three commonly used antibiotics. Data were gathered from a previously conducted retrospective chart review where the three antibiotics were used for either prophylactic, empiric, or documented infections. Although this study was limited by its retrospective nature, the reader can use the data to appreciate the fundamentals of decision analysis. The continually changing climate in healthcare and the added visibility of pharmacologic agents in the treatment and prevention of disease has increased pressure on pharmacy departments to provide therapeutic agents that are cost-effective. Decision analysis can be used to compare therapeutic agents, in terms of financial as well as clinical outcomes, in a structured fashion that all members of the health care team can understand. The application of Decision analysis is appropriate for many therapeutic agents, not just antibiotics.

  10. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Levin, Carol; Brisson, Marc; Levin, Ann; Resch, Stephen; Berkhof, Johannes; Kim, Jane; Hutubessy, Raymond

    2013-01-30

    Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

  11. Assessment of validation of health-economics decision models in intervention studies of seasonal influenza and breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Boer, P.T.; Frederix, G.W.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.F.; Vemer, P.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: We aimed to review recently published health-economic (HE) decision models to assess the reporting of validation efforts. An infectious disease (seasonal influenza, SI) and a chronic disease (breast cancer, BC) were used as examples, giving a preliminary insight in the reporting of

  12. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K. O’Brien

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform. We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

  13. Take a stand on your decisions, or take a sit: posture does not affect risk preferences in an economic task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Megan K; Ahmed, Alaa A

    2014-01-01

    Physiological and emotional states can affect our decision-making processes, even when these states are seemingly insignificant to the decision at hand. We examined whether posture and postural threat affect decisions in a non-related economic domain. Healthy young adults made a series of choices between economic lotteries in various conditions, including changes in body posture (sitting vs. standing) and changes in elevation (ground level vs. atop a 0.8-meter-high platform). We compared three metrics between conditions to assess changes in risk-sensitivity: frequency of risky choices, and parameter fits of both utility and probability weighting parameters using cumulative prospect theory. We also measured skin conductance level to evaluate physiological response to the postural threat. Our results demonstrate that body posture does not significantly affect decision making. Secondly, despite increased skin conductance level, economic risk-sensitivity was unaffected by increased threat. Our findings indicate that economic choices are fairly robust to the physiological and emotional changes that result from posture or postural threat.

  14. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  15. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lusk, P.D.

    1991-01-01

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  16. Determining the object structure of ecological and economic research and knowledge base for decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozulia, T.V.; Kozulia, M.M.

    2017-01-01

    The mathematical model of natural-technogenic objects is substantiated in the article. Natural-technogenic object of research is defined in form of a system model, which includes the economic, ecological and social components and processes system occurring in the selected systems and in their interaction. Basis for introduction systematic analysis methods for consistent problematic environmental safety tasks solution under conditions of uncertainty has been formed. The complex methods system includes entropy theory provisions on the objects state evaluation, the comparator identification method, substantively substantiated for solving complex environment quality assessment problems. An example of ecological state technogenically loaded landscape-geochemical complexes on the proposed methodological support studied in the work.

  17. Fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsis, Sandra V; Chung, Kevin C

    2010-02-01

    The use of economic evaluation in surgery is scarce. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery, in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. This article, part of a tutorial series on evidence-based medicine, focuses on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis. The authors include the essential aspects of conducting a surgical cost-utility analysis by considering perspectives, costs, outcomes, and utilities. The authors also describe and give examples of how to conduct the analyses (including calculating quality-adjusted life-years and discounting), how to interpret the results, and how to report the results. Although economic analyses are not simple to conduct, a well-conducted one provides many rewards, such as recommending the adoption of a more effective treatment. For comparing and interpreting economic analysis publications, it is important that all studies use consistent methodology and report the results in a similar manner.

  18. Substance misuse prevention and economic analysis: challenges and opportunities regarding international utility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyll, Max; Spoth, Richard; Cornish, Marilyn A

    2012-01-01

    Economic analyses of substance misuse prevention assess the intervention cost necessary to achieve a particular outcome, and thereby provide an additional dimension for evaluating prevention programming. This article reviews several types of economic analysis, considers how they can be applied to substance misuse prevention, and discusses challenges to enhancing their international relevance, particularly their usefulness for informing policy decisions. Important first steps taken to address these challenges are presented, including the disease burden concept and the development of generalized cost-effectiveness, advances that facilitate international policy discussions by providing a common framework for evaluating health care needs and program effects.

  19. TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

    2016-01-01

    In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

  20. An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Dingqin

    1989-01-01

    An economic analysis code used for PWR fuel cycle is developed. This economic code includes 12 subroutines representing vavious processes for entire PWR fuel cycle, and indicates the influence of the fuel cost on the cost of the electricity generation and the influence of individual process on the sensitivity of the fuel cycle cost

  1. Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

    2017-12-01

    The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages

  2. Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  3. Solar energy options: Technical economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visentin, R

    1982-01-01

    A general system approach on the earth suggests the conversion and distribution of solar energy as electricity, gas, solid and liquid fuels; the historical trend in energy management techniques is in favour of this hard technical proposal, because experience there exists on methods of transmission or transportation of previous kinds of energy vectors mentioned, and small changes in lifestyles toward energy conservation have to be considered in the final uses of the energy. Less hard system technologies will permit direct heat and electricity production close to the channels of energy consumptions; these systems will function as energy savers and their full exploitation implies greater impacts on energy use and lifestyles. As a general trend for government policies as well as for public decision impact on the social decision process, the proliferation of solar systems would permit to produce energy for the 'flowing energetic consumptions' (civil, transportation, agriculture, telecommunications, lighting, etc.) while the not renewable fuels could be properly invested in the production of strategic or durable materials; in this scheme the role of renewable resources is well defined to stabilize the whole civil system in which we are at present organized.

  4. Analysis of the financial and economic activity agroturism

    OpenAIRE

    Godja (Dănilă), Daniela Ileana

    2016-01-01

    This study presents the efficiency of tourism enterprises in the market economy, which is the essential condition of its existence. For this reason, economic and financial situation of the company is the basis of tourism taking all decisions and actions that commits additional expenses. Businesses in rural areas need to face some unique conditions that are not in urban areas. For this reason a need expanding business in rural tourism which is the result of creating favorable conditions for ha...

  5. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  6. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  7. Economic data used in working group 5 analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haffner, D.R.; Parker, M.B.

    1979-03-01

    This paper presents the economic data used in the detailed economic analysis carried out in the U.S. paper WG-40 and is also used to arrive at the economics conclusions in U.S. papers WG 5A-19 and WG 5A-22. The data base includes reactor characteristics for the standard, 15 percent improved and 30 percent improved LWR plus the FBR system characteristics, fuel cost data, reactor plant capital cost data, and economic data (debt rate, equity rate, fixed charge rate, etc.)

  8. Duopoly Market Analysis within One-Shot Decision Framework with Asymmetric Possibilistic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peijun Guo

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a newly emerging duopoly market with a short life cycle is analyzed. The partially known information of market is characterized by the possibility distribution of the parameter in the demand function. Since the life cycle of the new product is short, how many products should be produced by two rival firms is a typical one-shot decision problem. Within the one-shot decision framework, the possibilistic Cournot equilibrium is obtained for the optimal production level of each firm in a duopoly market with asymmetrical possibilistic information. The analysis results show that the proposed approaches are reasonable for one-shot decision problems, which are extensively encountered in business and economics.

  9. Military construction program economic analysis manual: Sample economic analyses: Hazardous Waste Remedial Actions Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-12-01

    This manual enables the US Air Force to comprehensively and systematically analyze alternative approaches to meeting its military construction requirements. The manual includes step-by-step procedures for completing economic analyses for military construction projects, beginning with determining if an analysis is necessary. Instructions and a checklist of the tasks involved for each step are provided; and examples of calculations and illustrations of completed forms are included. The manual explains the major tasks of an economic analysis, including identifying the problem, selecting realistic alternatives for solving it, formulating appropriate assumptions, determining the costs and benefits of the alternatives, comparing the alternatives, testing the sensitivity of major uncertainties, and ranking the alternatives. Appendixes are included that contain data, indexes, and worksheets to aid in performing the economic analyses. For reference, Volume 2 contains sample economic analyses that illustrate how each form is filled out and that include a complete example of the documentation required

  10. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. SABAU

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  11. Basis of economic analysis of Czech firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Chmelíková

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available When looking for connections between particular business’s activities, theory of financial management uses pyramidal system of indicators. The effectiveness of this tool is based on the appropriate choice of the top indicator. Its decomposition enables to manage firm’s processes from the bottommost organizational levels to the main firm’s mission with respect to the connections between par­ti­cu­lar processes. The aim of this paper was to identify appropriate indicator, which corresponds with creation of firm’s value and design its decomposition. To measure creation of firm’s value it is nowadays very popular to use indicator Economic Value Added (EVA. Though from the theoretical point of view EVA is seen as a superior performance metric, the results of some empirical studies do not support this claim. That is why the information content of EVA was controlled in the concrete conditions of Czech Economy within this article. The results showed eligibility of using EVA in Czech firms and enabled to choose it as the top indicator in the pyramidal system. Ambition of further research is to design a complex of indicators offering a comprehensive economic view on the firm’s per­for­man­ce.

  12. Economic impacts of climate change in Australia: framework and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Melanie

    2007-01-01

    Full text: There is growing interest in understanding the potential impacts of climate change in Australia, and especially the economic impacts of 'inaction'. In this study, a preliminary analysis of the possible economic impacts of future climate change in Australia is undertaken using ABARE's general equilibrium model of the global economy, GTEM. In order to understand the potential economy-wide economic impacts, the broad climatic trends that Australia is likely to experience over the next several decades are canvassed and the potential economic and non-economic impacts on key risk areas, such as water resources, agriculture and forests, health, industry and human settlements and the ecosystems, are identified. A more detailed analysis of the economic impacts of climate change are undertaken by developing two case studies. In the first case study, the economic impact of climate change and reduced water availability on the agricultural sector is assessed in the Murray-Darling Basin. In the second case study, the sectoral economic impacts on the Australian resources sector of a projected decline in global economic activity due to climate change is analysed. The key areas of required development to more fully understand the economy-wide and sectoral impacts of climate change are also discussed including issues associated with estimating both non-market and market impacts. Finally, an analytical framework for undertaking integrated assessment of climate change impacts domestically and globally is developed

  13. Scrutinizing The Epistemology of Islamic Economics: A Historical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurizal Ismail

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The first International Conference on Islamic Economics was held in Makkah, in 1976. Economists, jurists and scholars met together to discuss issues of Muslim ummah. However, there was many books written related to Islamic economics in the history of Islamic civilization, especially in the period of Abbasid caliphate. The fact, development of knowledge in Islamic medieval had established the epistemology of Islamic economics itself. Moreover, the epistemology is a study of the theory of knowledge, the source of knowledge, the application of knowledge and limitation of knowledge. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the contribution of earlier Muslim thinkers to the source of Islamic economics and to identify the epistemology of Islamic economics as proposed by the Muslim thinkers in medieval period. As a result, this paper will propose the epistemology of Islamic economics by integrating Islamic heritage and modern economics that is not conflict with Islamic principles and values. To achieve its objectives; this study employs qualitative research by applying content and descriptive analysis. The finding of this study is that the earlier Muslim thinkers have contributed to the construction of epistemology in Islamic economics. Then, to construct the genuine of Islamic economics, tawhid must be put as a core of Islamic economic epistemology that directs the sources of knowledge which are rooted firstly from revealed and then rational knowledge by using appropriate methods.

  14. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shearer, Jessica C; Stack, Meghan L; Richmond, Marcie R; Bear, Allyson P; Hajjeh, Rana A; Bishai, David M

    2010-03-16

    Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance). Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76), or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75). For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04). Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  15. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  16. An economic analysis methodology for project evaluation and programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Economic analysis is a critical component of a comprehensive project or program evaluation methodology that considers all key : quantitative and qualitative impacts of highway investments. It allows highway agencies to identify, quantify, and value t...

  17. Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using Steam ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    acer

    Economic Analysis of Production of Essential Oil using. Steam Distillation ... The return on investment (ROI) was 125%, internal rate of return ... oils, over dependency on petrodollar and ... The steam may be obtained from external boiler or.

  18. Refurbishment of Railroad Crossties : A Technical and Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-12-01

    An analysis of the principal modes of failure for wooden railroad crossties was conducted and an evaluation of the technical and economic feasibility of refurbishing these ties was conducted. Among the principal modes of structural deterioration, onl...

  19. The Scrap Tire Problem: A Preliminary Economic Analysis (1985)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the study was to conduct a preliminary economic analysis of the social benefits of EPA action to require more appropriate disposal of scrap tires versus the social costs of such an action.

  20. Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic analysis of locust bean processing and marketing in Iwo local government, Osun state. ... Majority (78.3%) of the processors and marketers were making profit; 95.0% operate ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  1. Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State | Kudi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis Of Sesame Marketing In Jigawa State. ... The paper examines the marketing channel, structure, conduct, performance and marketing margin and efficiency of sesame. A sample of ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  2. Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Economic Analysis Of Yam Marketing In Obubra Local Government Area Of Cross River State, Nigeria. ... Characteristics of the sellers, marketing channels, marketing margin and efficiency were also ... EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT

  3. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fassbender, L.; Gregory, R.; Winterfeldt, D. von; John, R.

    1992-01-01

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  4. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF THE BUILDINGS REHABILITATION SOLUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STAN IVAN F.E.

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper includes a simplified economical and financial analysis of the buildings rehabilitation solutions, for heating and lighting. The most important economic and financial indicators analyzed and determined are: economic return on investment and payback period of investment in dynamic form, net present value, and internal rate of return economic residual value of the investment on thermal insulation, building maintenance costs, energy costs. In order to reduce the electricity consumption: the methods consisted in replacing inefficient lighting with some efficient energy and for heat consumption: the proposed solution was building rehabilitation (exterior wall insulation, floor insulation board. The analysis consists in determining the economical and financial indicators before and after the building rehabilitation. The 3 rooms apartment is located in Craiova town, (wind zone IV, 2nd floor, orientation is S.

  5. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  6. Economic Analysis: An Approach to Provide Basic Guidance for Conducting and Reviewing Economic Analysis within the Venezuelan Navy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-06-01

    la Armada (EMGAR)-- Staff of the Navy ------------------------- 18 b. Direction de Presupuesto Programac ion Ecomica (DIPPE)-Direction of Budget and...Economic Programming -------------------- 18 c. Cornite De Programacion y Presupuesto (CPP)-- Programming and Budget Committee-----------18 3. Major...development. This analysis is included in the annual budget. b. Direction de Presupuesto Programaclon Ecomica (DIPPE)- Direction of Budget and Economic

  7. Standardization: using comparative maintenance costs in an economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, Roger Nelson

    1987-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited This thesis investigates the use of comparative maintenance costs of functionally interchangeable equipments in similar U.S. Navy shipboard applications in an economic analysis of standardization. The economics of standardization, life-cycle costing, and the Navy 3-M System are discussed in general. An analysis of 3-M System maintenance costs for a selected equipment, diesel engines, is conducted. The potential use of comparative ma...

  8. PIEteR : a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, A.B.

    1996-01-01


    To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.

    PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly

  9. An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R

    1978-07-01

    This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.

  10. Using whole disease modeling to inform resource allocation decisions: economic evaluation of a clinical guideline for colorectal cancer using a single model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tappenden, Paul; Chilcott, Jim; Brennan, Alan; Squires, Hazel; Glynne-Jones, Rob; Tappenden, Janine

    2013-06-01

    To assess the feasibility and value of simulating whole disease and treatment pathways within a single model to provide a common economic basis for informing resource allocation decisions. A patient-level simulation model was developed with the intention of being capable of evaluating multiple topics within National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's colorectal cancer clinical guideline. The model simulates disease and treatment pathways from preclinical disease through to detection, diagnosis, adjuvant/neoadjuvant treatments, follow-up, curative/palliative treatments for metastases, supportive care, and eventual death. The model parameters were informed by meta-analyses, randomized trials, observational studies, health utility studies, audit data, costing sources, and expert opinion. Unobservable natural history parameters were calibrated against external data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Economic analysis was undertaken using conventional cost-utility decision rules within each guideline topic and constrained maximization rules across multiple topics. Under usual processes for guideline development, piecewise economic modeling would have been used to evaluate between one and three topics. The Whole Disease Model was capable of evaluating 11 of 15 guideline topics, ranging from alternative diagnostic technologies through to treatments for metastatic disease. The constrained maximization analysis identified a configuration of colorectal services that is expected to maximize quality-adjusted life-year gains without exceeding current expenditure levels. This study indicates that Whole Disease Model development is feasible and can allow for the economic analysis of most interventions across a disease service within a consistent conceptual and mathematical infrastructure. This disease-level modeling approach may be of particular value in providing an economic basis to support other clinical guidelines. Copyright © 2013 International

  11. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that an Exploratory Studied Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical characterization decision because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing an constrains subsequent repository design. To assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative ESF-repository designs. The evaluation relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and enabled the Department of Energy to adopt an improved ESF design

  12. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  13. Increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of environmental decisions: Benefit-cost analysis and effluent fees: A critical review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lave, L.; Gruenspecht, H.

    1991-01-01

    The objective of this critical review is to evaluate and summarize the literature on economic tools used to improve environmental decision making. Environmental decisions are complicated by pervasive uncertainty, and the lack of consensus on goals and on tradeoffs, such as air versus water pollution and versus loss of coal mining jobs. Five decision frameworks are used by regulatory agencies to simplify decision making. Congress' choice of a decision framework designates the amount of data and analysis that will be required and the range and depth of social values that must be considered. Economic incentives have worked well for phasing out lead in gasoline, for increasing recycling and for reducing the volume of municipal solid waste. Congress has mandated incentives for acid rain and CFCs, and several countries have implemented carbon taxes to abate greenhouse gas emissions. Economic tools have become more central to the analysis and implementation of environmental policies; their role should continue to increase. We conclude that economic tools are extremely valuable, although their application is difficult

  14. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

  15. An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Li Meng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

  16. SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO ECONOMICS DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hossein HASSANI; Anatoly ZHIGLJAVSKY

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstrate that it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting, particulary for economic time series. The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian national accounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of lran.

  17. Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, George E.; Koser, John P.; Sato, Gaku

    2004-01-01

    For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

  18. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  20. Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimis Vogiatzoglou

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.

  1. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Balqis M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

  2. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orechwa, Y.

    2004-01-01

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  3. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-01-01

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  4. The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

    2010-01-01

    The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts.

  5. Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomier Baez, L.; Troncoso Fleitas, M.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.; Valle Cepero, R.; Hernandez, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

  6. Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winterfeldt, D. von

    1995-01-01

    Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio astronomical observatory site selection in peninsular of Malaysia. R Umar, Z.Z. Abidin, Z.A. Ibrahim, M.K.A. Kamarudin, S.N. Hazmin, A Endut, H Juahir ...

  8. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinkko, K.

    1991-09-01

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  9. Decision analysis of Hanford underground storage tank waste retrieval systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merkhofer, M.W.; Bitz, D.A.; Berry, D.L.; Jardine, L.J.

    1994-05-01

    A decision analysis approach has been proposed for planning the retrieval of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes from underground storage tanks. This paper describes the proposed approach and illustrates its application to the single-shell storage tanks (SSTs) at Hanford, Washington

  10. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  11. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

  12. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, Han Myeong; Lee, Man Kee; Moon, Ki Hwan; Kim, Seung Soo; Kim, Seong Ki; Lee, Yeong Ki

    1993-12-01

    As CO 2 emission is recognized as the one of the major causes of the global worming, international CO 2 emission regulation has been of great concern and has been discussed actively on the global level. Several means of CO 2 emission regulation have been raised and have received much attention recently. CO 2 emission regulation is expected to affect the national economy as well as the national energy policy. Since the electricity sector closely interacts with CO 2 emission, environmental regulation has the possibility of implementation in this sector. Considering the enormous role played by electricity in the national economy, it is very important to study the effect of environmental regulation on the electricity sector. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the marginal cost of CO 2 emission by analyzing the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on the electricity sector in terms of capacity and generation mix. This information can be used effectively in energy policy establishment. In addition, the effect of CO 2 emission regulation on economic viability of electricity generating type is also being studied in order to contribute to the establishment of Electric System Expansion Planning in Korea

  13. INCREASED COMPETITIVENESS OF CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES ON THE BASIS OF ORGANISATIONAL-ECONOMIC DECISIONS OF PERSONNEL POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Emirbekova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. The development of an algorithm for optimising the formation and use of human resources of a construction enterprise.Methods. The research basis consists in a generalised methodology  for personnel management, as well as specific methods for logical  and statistical analysis of management decision-making in  construction activities. The approaches, criteria, indicators and methods for assessing the effectiveness of human resource  management are studied alongside factors influencing the efficiency  resource potential management in a construction enterprise.Results. A quantitative methodology for the selection of qualified  staff for the implementation of construction projects is proposed.  The indicators of the effectiveness of the staff potential are  determined. Qualitative and quantitative data for the optimal  personnel formation for the construction project realisation are  systematised. An algorithm for optimising the personnel potential of  a construction enterprise is proposed. The use of this algorithm will  inform the choice of organisational and economic solutions for the  formation and effective use of qualified personnel at the expense of  combining professions, thereby reducing the cost and duration of construction work and increasing the resource efficiency and competitiveness of the construction enterprise.Conclusion. The labour potential of a construction enterprise can  significantly contribute to increased efficiency if it is used  appropriately and in an organised manner, using modern scientific  methods of management. Methods for building and organising the  activity of the personnel management system are proposed and a  mechanism for establishing relationships between the employer and employees that promote the most effective use of all types of resources for the development of the enterprise according to  strategic objectives is disclosed. The dominant role of the

  14. Negative decision outcomes are more common among people with lower decision-making competence: An item-level analysis of the Decision Outcome Inventory (DOI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Parker

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Most behavioral decision research takes place in carefully controlled laboratory settings, and examination of relationships between performance and specific real-world decision outcomes is rare. One prior study shows that people who perform better on hypothetical decision tasks, assessed using the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC measure, also tend to experience better real-world decision outcomes, as reported on the Decision Outcomes Inventory (DOI. The DOI score reflects avoidance of outcomes that could result from poor decisions, ranging from serious (e.g., bankruptcy to minor (e.g., blisters from sunburn. The present analyses go beyond the initial work, which focused on the overall DOI score, by analyzing the relationships between specific decision outcomes and A-DMC performance. Most outcomes are significantly more likely among people with lower A-DMC scores, even after taking into account two variables expected to produce worse real-world decision outcomes: younger age and lower socio-economic status. We discuss the usefulness of DOI as a measure of successful real-world decision making.

  15. The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foutes, C.E.

    1987-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were developed and input into the analysis. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. Total costs of each level of a standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, was calculated for each alternative standard. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis

  18. Economic conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease: analysis of the Icelandic economic collapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birgisdóttir, Kristín Helga; Jónsson, Stefán Hrafn; Ásgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey

    2017-12-01

    Previous research has found a positive short-term relationship between the 2008 collapse and hypertension in Icelandic males. With Iceland's economy experiencing a phase of economic recovery, an opportunity to pursue a longer-term analysis of the collapse has emerged. Using data from a nationally representative sample, fixed-effect estimations and mediation analyses were performed to explore the relationship between the Icelandic economic collapse in 2008 and the longer-term impact on hypertension and cardiovascular health. A sensitivity analysis was carried out with pooled logit models estimated as well as an alternative dependent variable. Our attrition analysis revealed that results for cardiovascular diseases were affected by attrition, but not results from estimations on the relationship between the economic crisis and hypertension. When compared to the boom year 2007, our results point to an increased probability of Icelandic women having hypertension in the year 2012, when the Icelandic economy had recovered substantially from the economic collapse in 2008. This represents a deviation from pre-crisis trends, thus suggesting a true economic-recovery impact on hypertension.

  19. A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abulfaraj, W.H.; Abdul-Fattah, A.F.

    1985-01-01

    Establishment of a nuclear research facility should be the first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors from USA are selected for the present study. The IFDA computer code, based on the fuzzy set theory is applied. Results reveal that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best. 17 refs

  20. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.