WorldWideScience

Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. DECISION ANALYSIS IN FUZZY ECONOMICS

    OpenAIRE

    Aliev, Rafiq

    2009-01-01

    Tracing the development of economics since the 19th century up to the present day makes it evident that at its core there is a sequence of rather precise and mathematically sophisticated axiomatic theories. At the same time, there is always a noticeable and persistent gap between economic reality and the economic predictions derived from these theories. The main reason why economic theories have not been successful so far in modeling economic reality is the fact that these theories are formul...

  2. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  3. Introduction: Behavioral economics, business decision making and applied policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Berg, Nathan

    2007-01-01

    The emergence of behavioural economics has provided new insights into economic and business phenomena by integrating elements of economic theory and experimental psychology. So far, the behavioural economics research agenda has concentrated on the empirical validity of foundational assumptions, producing new descriptive accounts of behavioural patterns that are difficult to explain using traditional neoclassical assumptions. This agenda has now developed sufficiently to begin exploring how to...

  4. Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proposed Title: Using System Dynamics Analysis for Evaluating Neighborhood Economic Outcomes from Transportation and Land Use Decisions Topic (must choose one item from a drop-down list): Community Indicators Learning Objectives (must list 2): • What are the benefits and l...

  5. A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekoufeh Nikfar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

  6. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  7. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  8. The Economics and Politics of Trade Policy: An Empirical Analysis of ITC Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Wendy L. Hansen; PRUSA, Thomas J.

    1996-01-01

    We study the determinants of trade policy decisions focusing specifically on antidumping and countervailing duty statutes administered by the International Trade Commission (ITC). Using detailed industry, import, and political pressure data we model ITC decision making, weighing the relative impact of economic and political factors in predicting policy outcomes. We find the ITC's decision making is significantly influenced by both economic and political factors. However, because an industry h...

  9. Decision analytic models, sensitivity analysis and value of information in economic evaluations in health care

    OpenAIRE

    Bischof, Matthias

    2010-01-01

    Economic evaluations of health care technologies are now commonly carried out to assess the economic value of new pharmaceuticals, medical devices and procedures. The aim of health economic evaluations is to measure, value and compare the costs and benefits of different health care interventions. To date, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and cost-utility analysis (CUA) are the two types of economic evaluations that are applied in the vast majority of economic evaluation studie...

  10. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2014-09-01

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of the health effects on a single non-monetary scale. To relax this assumption, this article proves that the NMB framework is a special case of the more general stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. Specifically, as SMAA does not restrict the number of criteria to two and also does not require the marginal rates of substitution to be constant, there are problem instances for which the use of this more general method may result in a better understanding of the trade-offs underlying the reimbursement decision-making problem. This is illustrated by applying both methods in a case study related to infertility treatment.

  11. A Model for Making Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Using Real Variables for Political and Economic Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl B.McGowan, Jr.

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Investment Risk Matrix (FIRM developed by Bhalla (1983 uses political and economic risk measures for foreign direct investment decision making. FIRM may be used to develop a matrix that categorizes countries based on political risk and economic risk as acceptable, unacceptable, or uncertain for investment.We demonstrate using political and economic risk variables that are available on the internet in an expanded model using three measures of political risk and three measures of economic risk. After determining the group of countries that would be acceptable for FDI, the multinational companies can focus on further analysis of acceptable countries.

  12. Combining remote sensing and economic analysis to support decisions that affect water productivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C.J.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, an innovative method—that combines a technical and socio-economic analysis—is presented to assess the implications of policy decisions on water productivity. In the technical part, the variability in crop water productivity (CWP) is analyzed on the basis of actual water consumption an

  13. Behavioral Public Economics: Welfare and Policy Analysis with Non-Standard Decision-Makers

    OpenAIRE

    B. Douglas Bernheim; Antonio Rangel

    2005-01-01

    This paper has two goals. First, we discuss several emerging approaches to applied welfare analysis under non-standard (“behavioral”) assumptions concerning consumer choice. This provides a foundation for Behavioral Public Economics. Second, we illustrate applications of these approaches by surveying behavioral studies of policy problems involving saving, addiction, and public goods. We argue that the literature on behavioral public economics, though in its infancy, has already fundamentally ...

  14. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for

  15. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale

  16. Economic Decisions in Farm Animal Health

    OpenAIRE

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    2006-01-01

    Animal health economics deals with quantifying the economic effects of animal disease, decision support tools in animal health management and further analysis of the management's impact at animal, herd or national level. Scientists from The Netherlands, France and Sweden have since 1988 organised informal workshops to exchange their knowledge and expertise in this field of science. This report contains the summary of the presentations given by 12 PhD students and 2 senior scientists of the An...

  17. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  18. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  19. An economic way of reducing health, environmental, and other pressures of urban traffic: a decision analysis on trip aggregation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tainio Marko

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traffic congestion is rapidly becoming the most important obstacle to urban development. In addition, traffic creates major health, environmental, and economical problems. Nonetheless, automobiles are crucial for the functions of the modern society. Most proposals for sustainable traffic solutions face major political opposition, economical consequences, or technical problems. Methods We performed a decision analysis in a poorly studied area, trip aggregation, and studied decisions from the perspective of two different stakeholders, the passenger and society. We modelled the impact and potential of composite traffic, a hypothetical large-scale demand-responsive public transport system for the Helsinki metropolitan area, where a centralised system would collect the information on all trip demands online, would merge the trips with the same origin and destination into public vehicles with eight or four seats, and then would transmit the trip instructions to the passengers' mobile phones. Results We show here that in an urban area with one million inhabitants, trip aggregation could reduce the health, environmental, and other detrimental impacts of car traffic typically by 50–70%, and if implemented could attract about half of the car passengers, and within a broad operational range would require no public subsidies. Conclusion Composite traffic provides new degrees of freedom in urban decision-making in identifying novel solutions to the problems of urban traffic.

  20. Economic analysis of nuclear power plant for decision making in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to National Economic and Social Development's forecast, electricity demand in Thailand from now up to the year 2011 will rise more than 147 %. So, the Eighth-Ninth National Economic and Social Development Plans (NESDP) (1997-2006) has launched the main energy resources, imported oil, coal, imported coal, natural gas and hydro. From the Tenth NESDP up (2007-) may launch the energy option more, such as liquid natural gas and nuclear. Although Thailand has reserved lignite and natural gas enough for more than two centuries, we have found that the energy resources are inadequate and expected to be imported for over 60%. So nuclear energy is necessary and suitable for alternative source of energy. The main factors used for power generating cost calculation of nuclear power plant are capital investment cost, nuclear fuel cycle cost, operation and maintenance cost, and infrastructure cost. Consequently, the parameter which indicating the performance of power plant and power generation cost are load factor, net power rating, and economic life. Another variable group are interest rate, escalation rate, and discount rate. The overhead and operation cost are always changed due to the economic or other variants of interest rate, and out of schedule operation or the changing of fuel cost. In order to compare each type of power plant, we had to use present worth value analytical technique to calculate the the levelized energy cost (mills/kWh) by giving present worth value of average power generation cost equal to present worth value of total cost of the project and operation of power plant. The economic parameter will affect exchange rate and discount rate calculation. To assess the economic analysis of cost and cost benefit of Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) project, real interest rate for discount rate (social discount rate) will be calculated. By the year 1992-1998, the social discount rate of Thailand is estimated at about 7.59%. For studying

  1. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  2. A conceptual approach for a quantitative economic analysis of farmers’ decision-making regarding animal welfare

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gocsik, E.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Lauwere, de C.C.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Decisions related to animal welfare (AW) standards depend on farmer’s multiple goals and values and are constrained by a wide range of external and internal forces. The aim of this paper is twofold, i.e., (1) to develop a theoretical framework for farmers’ AW decisions that incorporates farmers’ goa

  3. THE METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Solopenko

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The necessity of economic ground of administrative decisions related to the operation, staff, financial, investment, information & telecommunication, innovative, marketing and international economic activities of an aviation enterprise is determined foe such an enterprise, and the procedure of economic substantiation of administrative decisions with use of economico-mathematical modelling in automated control system (ACS for an aviation enterprise is implemented.

  4. Economic Decisions in Farm Animal Health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    Animal health economics deals with quantifying the economic effects of animal disease, decision support tools in animal health management and further analysis of the management's impact at animal, herd or national level. Scientists from The Netherlands, France and Sweden have since 1988 organised...... informal workshops to exchange their knowledge and expertise in this field of science. This report contains the summary of the presentations given by 12 PhD students and 2 senior scientists of the Animal Health Economics workshops which was held on the 9th and 10th of November, 2006 at the Research Centre...... Foulum in Denmark. Different disciplines and approaches within Animal Health Economics are dealt with by the different scientists and the report contains a variety of novel results and projects. The resulting discussion is summarized in the report....

  5. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L.; Buskens, Erik

    2014-01-01

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of

  6. Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  7. Research on decision support systems in the current economic context

    OpenAIRE

    Florin BOGHEAN

    2014-01-01

    The complexity of economic activities in terms of the competition imposed by the current economy acts to increase the role of economic financial information in decision-making.The quality of information is paramount for the quality of current and long-term decisions, and therefore for the entity's forecast results.In this article, we intend to perform an analysis of the usefulness of the information provided by the accounting department in decision making processes.The research typology emplo...

  8. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  9. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  10. Economics: Scarcity and Citizen Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliard, June V.; Morton, John S.

    1981-01-01

    Maintaining that economics can contribute significantly to the achievement of citizenship education goals within the social studies program, this article offers information on concepts for analyzing economic policies, dealing with policy issues in the classroom, and understanding the relationship of scarcity to decision making. (DB)

  11. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  12. An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Taejin

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won per QALY (Quality adjusted life year (2,895.80 USD per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY

  13. The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shepperd Sasha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the

  14. Technical and economic analysis of the decisions efficiency of system of water vapor condensate collecting and reusing organization in the industrial firm practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khamidullina, G. R.

    2016-06-01

    We consider the technical and economic aspects of power - and resource-recovery decisions on a steam condensate recycling and effective using of the (residual) afterheat containing in it basing on the specifics of the industrial enterprises. Below there are the results of the technical and economic analysis of the original innovative solution introduced in practice of the organization of system of collecting and recycling using of water vapor condensate in the conditions of high probability of its pollution by hydrocarbon joints and a non-return of condensate to the source. Also we showed here the high efficiency of the proposed solution.

  15. Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

    2014-07-01

    Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior. PMID:25205006

  16. Ethics in economic decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leliveld, Marijke Christina

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation sheds more light on ethics in economic decision-making. Over the course of nine experiments, I studied (a) when people adhere to ethical standards like the do-no-harm principle, and (b) how people respond to situations in which ethical standards are violated by studying not only pu

  17. CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS FOR SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-01-01

    The real facts presented in this article, demonstrate the great importance in today's world of strategic management, methods of analyses of innovations and investments and the role of the theory of decision-making in these economic disciplines. We have given the retrospective analysis of the development of nuclear physics research. For the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century, we had a very great importance of the two events: the decision ...

  18. Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

    2013-01-01

    Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics.

  19. Economic Evaluation Enhances Public Health Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Rabarison, Kristina M.; Connie L. Bish; Massoudi, Mehran S.; Giles, Wayne H.

    2015-01-01

    Contemporary public health professionals must address the health needs of a diverse population with constrained budgets and shrinking funds. Economic evaluation contributes to evidence-based decision making by helping the public health community identify, measure, and compare activities with the necessary impact, scalability, and sustainability to optimize population health. Asking “how do investments in public health strategies influence or offset the need for downstream spending on medical ...

  20. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  1. The economic valuation of improved process plant decision support technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Douglas C

    2007-06-01

    How can investments that would potentially improve a manufacturing plant's decision process be economically justified? What is the value of "better information," "more flexibility," or "improved integration" and the technologies that provide these effects? Technology investments such as improved process modelling, new real time historians and other databases, "smart" instrumentation, better data analysis and visualization software, and/or improved user interfaces often include these benefits as part of their valuation. How are these "soft" benefits to be converted to a quantitative economic return? Quantification is important if rational management decisions are to be made about the correct amount of money to invest in the technologies, and which technologies to choose among the many available ones. Modelling the plant operational decision cycle-detect, analyse, forecast, choose and implement--provides a basis for this economic quantification. In this paper a new economic model is proposed for estimation of the value of decision support investments based on their effect upon the uncertainty in forecasting plant financial performance. This model leads to quantitative benefit estimates that have a realistic financial basis. An example is presented demonstrating the application of the method.

  2. Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Hutton

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH, vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution. Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

  3. Economic Analysis of Law

    OpenAIRE

    Louis Kaplow; Steven Shavell

    1999-01-01

    This entry for the forthcoming The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (Second Edition) surveys the economic analysis of five primary fields of law: property law; liability for accidents; contract law; litigation; and public enforcement and criminal law. It also briefly considers some criticisms of the economic analysis of law.

  4. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  5. Knowledge of Social Affiliations Biases Economic Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Joel E.; Mack, Michael L.; Gelman, Bernard D.; Preston, Alison R.

    2016-01-01

    An individual’s reputation and group membership can produce automatic judgments and behaviors toward that individual. Whether an individual’s social reputation impacts interactions with affiliates has yet to be demonstrated. We tested the hypothesis that during initial encounters with others, existing knowledge of their social network guides behavior toward them. Participants learned reputations (cooperate, defect, or equal mix) for virtual players through an iterated economic game (EG). Then, participants learned one novel friend for each player. The critical question was how participants treated the friends in a single-shot EG after the friend-learning phase. Participants tended to cooperate with friends of cooperators and defect on friends of defectors, indicative of a decision making bias based on memory for social affiliations. Interestingly, participants’ explicit predictions of the friends’ future behavior showed no such bias. Moreover, the bias to defect on friends of defectors was enhanced when affiliations were learned in a social context; participants who learned to associate novel faces with player faces during reinforcement learning did not show reputation-based bias for associates of defectors during single-shot EG. These data indicate that when faced with risky social decisions, memories of social connections influence behavior implicitly. PMID:27441563

  6. Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

    2008-07-01

    This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

  7. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  8. The Role of Economic Space in Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Margaret E. Slade

    2005-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role that economic space plays in private and public decision making. Both geographic and characteristic space are considered. The choice of spatial location, whether it be a physical location or a product position, can have significant consequences for other economic decisions, and those secondary decisions are the focus of the paper. In particular, it is useful to have methods of measuring economic proximity in geographic and characteristic space and to have ways of ...

  9. Results of analysis of archive MSG data in the context of MCS prediction system development for economic decisions assistance - case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranek, K.; Jakubiak, B.; Lech, R.; Tomczuk, M.

    2012-04-01

    PROZA (Operational decision-making based on atmospheric conditions) is the project co-financed by the European Union through the European Regional Development Fund. One of its tasks is to develop the operational forecast system, which is supposed to support different economies branches like forestry or fruit farming by reducing the risk of economic decisions with taking into consideration weather conditions. In the frame of this studies system of sudden convective phenomena (storms or tornados) prediction is going to be built. The main authors' purpose is to predict MCSs (Mezoscale Convective Systems) basing on MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) real-time data. Until now several tests were performed. The Meteosat satellite images in selected spectral channels collected for Central Europe Region for May and August 2010 were used to detect and track cloud systems related to MCSs. In proposed tracking method first the cloud objects are defined using the temperature threshold and next the selected cells are tracked using principle of overlapping position on consecutive images. The main benefit to use a temperature thresholding to define cells is its simplicity. During the tracking process the algorithm links the cells of the image at time t to the one of the following image at time t+dt that correspond to the same cloud system (Morel-Senesi algorithm). An automated detection and elimination of some instabilities presented in tracking algorithm was developed. The poster presents analysis of exemplary MCSs in the context of near real-time prediction system development.

  10. Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Resta, Marina

    2016-01-01

    The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

  11. Is family planning an economic decision?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wunderink, S R

    1995-09-01

    This study examines economic models of household choice and the role of economic factors in determining the timing of births. A static economic model is presented and tested with data from the Netherlands. After the availability of contraceptives, the family size variable shifted from being an exogenous to an endogenous one, because births could be regulated. Costs of childbearing were construed to have maintenance costs for parents and society, attendance costs of care, and intangible costs such as anxiety or personal freedom. Benefits were intangible ones, such as joy and happiness; income; public benefits; and attendance benefits. Intangible benefits enlarged the utility of children, but maintenance costs diminished resources available for consumption. Child quality was a product of market goods purchased by parents and others and household labor. Household time allocation varied with child's age. Private responsibility for children varied by country. Quality of child care varied between countries and over time. Quality was dependent upon economies of scale, variable costs by the age of the child, variable time commitments by age of the child, and market substitutes for private child care. Higher income families spent more money but less time on children. It is pointed out that Becker's model explained number of children, but not timing of births. Postponement of birth was unlikely for those with a limited education, an unpleasant job, and low wages. When the advantages and disadvantages of having a baby were positive, spouses or single women with a high subjective preference were expected to bear a child as soon as possible. Government policy can affect the average family size by increasing or decreasing the financial and/or time burden of children. Postponement may be chosen based on long term analysis of a couple's future, the formation and use of capital, and/or high subjective time preference. Before and after first birth are different frames of reference

  12. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  13. Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S. Murphy

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

  14. The role of behavioral economics and behavioral decision making in Americans' retirement savings decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoll, Melissa A Z

    2010-01-01

    Traditional economic theory posits that people make decisions by maximizing a utility function in which all of the relevant constraints and preferences are included and weighed appropriately. Behavioral economists and decision-making researchers, however, are interested in how people make decisions in the face of incomplete information, limited cognitive resources, and decision biases. Empirical findings in the areas of behavioral economics and judgment and decision making (JDM) demonstrate departures from the notion that man is economically rational, illustrating instead that people often act in ways that are economically suboptimal. This article outlines findings from the JDM and behavioral-economics literatures that highlight the many behavioral impediments to saving that individuals may encounter on their way to financial security. I discuss how behavioral and psychological issues, such as self-control, emotions, and choice architecture can help policymakers understand what factors, aside from purely economic ones, may affect individuals' savings behavior.

  15. Economic Analysis of Constitutions

    OpenAIRE

    Roger B. Myerson

    2000-01-01

    This paper is a preliminary draft of an article to appear in Chicago Law Review (2000), as part of a symposium reviewing two new books on economic analysis of constitutions: Dennis Mueller's Constitutional Democracy and Robert Cooter's Strategic Constitution. Some of the basic questions of constitutional analysis are introduced, and the importance of work in this area is shown as one of the major new developments in social theory. The methods of economic theory are then shown to be particular...

  16. Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

    2002-01-01

    Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

  17. 装甲装备高新技术系统维修方案决策经济性分析%Economic Analysis of Maintenance Plan Decision Making for High Tech System of Armored Equipment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张晓峰

    2015-01-01

    针对装甲装备高新技术系统维修过程中维修方案决策的经济性分析仍缺乏有效方法的现状,本文以实际维修的三级结构出发进行了经济性分析。首先分析了可行决策的描述方式和决策事件,然后建立了费用估算模型,并结合装甲装备火控系统的维修进行了实例分析,结果表明,本文提出的维修方案决策的经济性分析方法合理有效。%In view of the economic analysis of maintenance plan decision making in the maintenance process of the high tech system of armored equipment, this paper carries out the economic analysis on the three level structure of the actual maintenance. Firstly, the description method and decision event of feasible decision are analyzed, then the cost estimation model is established. An example analysis of the maintenance of the fire control system of armored equipment is carried out, and the results show that the method of economic analysis of maintenance plan decision is reasonable and effective.

  18. Weather forecasts, users' economic expenses and decision strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, G. M.

    1972-01-01

    Differing decision models and operational characteristics affecting the economic expenses (i.e., the costs of protection and losses suffered if no protective measures have been taken) associated with the use of predictive weather information have been examined.

  19. Effects of approach and withdrawal motivation on interactive economic decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harle, K.M.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2010-01-01

    Although recent economic models of human decision making have recognised the role of emotion as an important biasing factor, the impact of incidental emotion on decisions has remained poorly explored. To address this question, we jointly explored the role of emotional valence (i.e., positive vs. neg

  20. Exploring the Options: Teaching Economic Decision-Making with Poetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Theresa L.

    2012-01-01

    High-stakes standardized tests in reading and limited instructional time are two powerful disincentives for teaching economics in the elementary classroom. In this article, integrating instruction in poetry and economic decision-making is presented as one way to maximize the use of scarce instructional time. Following a brief introduction to the…

  1. Theoretical Aspects of Collective Decision Making - Survey of the Economic Literature

    OpenAIRE

    Stanek Piotr Ph.D.

    2013-01-01

    The article aims at surveying the economic literature related to collective decision making. In order to do so it proposes a coherent framework allowing for a structured analysis of the factors influencing the works of a committee. These factors are divided into external ( shaped outside of the committee e.g. by law) and internal ones (related to the composition of the committee and interactions between its members). The survey of the general economic literature related to collective decision...

  2. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation.

  3. Real Estate Industry's Decision-making and Response Analysis under Economic Downside Risk%经济下行风险下的地产行业决策与应对分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李劲

    2015-01-01

    随着中国经济下行,地产行业投资决策的风险越来越高。传统的策略分析能够在正常经济环境下的地产行业决策中起到较好的作用,但是在经济存在下行风险的条件下,对于构建地产投资组合决策模型以降低风险的效果较差。因此,本文提出一种优化的蚁群聚类算法并在此基础上建立考虑经济下行风险的房地产行业策略分析模型,对经济下行条件下地产行业决策进行数据聚类研究,使用经济指标以及地产收益率聚类等地产行业决策策略,对其数据进行剖析,并进行了实证分析,证明了利用分类决策的可行性和较优效果,为经济下行条件下地产行业决策的风险控制提供了理论基础。%With the downturn of China's economy, the risk in the decision-making of China's real estate industry becomes higher and higher. In the normal economic environment, traditional strategy analysis plays a good role in the decision-mak⁃ing of the real estate industry, but under economy downside risks, to build real estate portfolio decision-making model in order to reduce the risk is of poor effect. Therefore, the paper proposes an optimized ant clustering algorithm, considering the economic downturn risk,an strategic analysis model of the real estate industry is set up to conduct the data clustering research of real estate decision-making under the condition of the economic downturn, using economic indicators, property yields clustering and other decision strategies of the real estate industry to dissect the data and carry on the empirical analy⁃sis, which proves that the utilization of classification decision is of feasibility and has a better effect, thus provides a theoret⁃ical basis for the risk control of real estate industry’s decision-making under the economic downturn condition.

  4. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion ISTUDOR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

  5. About Problems of Decision Making in Social and Economic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Voloshyn, Oleksiy

    2006-01-01

    The reasons of a restricted applicability of the models of decision making in social and economic systems. 3 basic principles of growth of their adequacy are proposed: "localization" of solutions, direct account of influencing of the individual on process of decision making ("subjectivity of objectivity") and reduction of influencing of the individual psychosomatic characteristics of the subject (" objectivity of subjectivity ") are offered. The principles are illustrated on mathe...

  6. CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS FOR SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The real facts presented in this article, demonstrate the great importance in today's world of strategic management, methods of analyses of innovations and investments and the role of the theory of decision-making in these economic disciplines. We have given the retrospective analysis of the development of nuclear physics research. For the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century, we had a very great importance of the two events: the decision of US President Roosevelt to deploy nuclear program (adopted in response to a letter from Einstein and the coincidence in time between the completion of the construction of nuclear bomb and the end of World War II. The nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has determined the developments in science and technology for the entire second half of the twentieth century. For the first time in the entire history of the world the leaders of the leading countries clearly seen that fundamental research can bring great practical benefit (from the point of view of the leaders of countries. Namely, they can give the brand new super-powerful weapon. The consequence was a broad organizational and financial support of fundamental and deriving from them applied research. Is analyzed the influence of fundamental and applied research on the development and effective use of new technology and technical progress. We consider the development of mathematical methods of research and information technology, in particular, the myth of "artificial intelligence"

  7. Pathological gambling in Parkinson's disease: subthalamic oscillations during economics decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Manuela; Fumagalli, Manuela; Giannicola, Gaia; Marceglia, Sara; Lucchiari, Claudio; Servello, Domenico; Franzini, Angelo; Pacchetti, Claudio; Romito, Luigi; Albanese, Alberto; Porta, Mauro; Pravettoni, Gabriella; Priori, Alberto

    2013-10-01

    Pathological gambling develops in up to 8% of patients with Parkinson's disease. Although the pathophysiology of gambling remains unclear, several findings argue for a dysfunction in the basal ganglia circuits. To clarify the role of the subthalamic nucleus in pathological gambling, we studied its activity during economics decisions. We analyzed local field potentials recorded from deep brain stimulation electrodes in the subthalamic nucleus while parkinsonian patients with (n = 8) and without (n = 9) pathological gambling engaged in an economics decision-making task comprising conflictual trials (involving possible risk-taking) and non conflictual trials. In all parkinsonian patients, subthalamic low frequencies (2-12 Hz) increased during economics decisions. Whereas, in patients without gambling, low-frequency oscillations exhibited a similar pattern during conflictual and non conflictual stimuli, in those with gambling, low-frequency activity increased significantly more during conflictual than during non conflictual stimuli. The specific low-frequency oscillatory pattern recorded in patients with Parkinson's disease who gamble could reflect a subthalamic dysfunction that makes their decisional threshold highly sensitive to risky options. When parkinsonian patients process stimuli related to an economics task, low-frequency subthalamic activity increases. This task-related change suggests that the cognitive-affective system that drives economics decisional processes includes the subthalamic nucleus. The specific subthalamic neuronal activity during conflictual decisions in patients with pathological gambling supports the idea that the subthalamic nucleus is involved in behavioral strategies and in the pathophysiology of gambling.

  8. Introduction to health economics and decision-making: Is economics relevant for the frontline clinician?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeree, Ron; Diaby, Vakaramoko

    2013-12-01

    In a climate of escalating demands for new health care services and significant constraints on new resources, the disciplines of health economics and health technology assessment (HTA) have increasingly been turned to as explicit evidence-based frameworks to help make tough health care access and reimbursement decisions. Health economics is the discipline of economics concerned with the efficient allocation of health care resources, essentially trying to maximize health benefits to society contingent upon available resources. HTA is a broader field drawing upon several disciplines, but which relies heavily upon the tools of health economics and economic evaluation. Traditionally, health economics and economic evaluation have been widely used at the political (macro) and local (meso) decision-making levels, and have progressively had an important role even at informing individual clinical decisions (micro level). The aim of this paper is to introduce readers to health economics and discuss its relevance to frontline clinicians. Particularly, the content of the paper will facilitate clinicians' understanding of the link between economics and their medical practice, and how clinical decision-making reflects on health care resource allocation.

  9. Cognitive Fatigue Destabilizes Economic Decision Making Preferences and Strategies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O'Dhaniel A Mullette-Gillman

    Full Text Available It is common for individuals to engage in taxing cognitive activity for prolonged periods of time, resulting in cognitive fatigue that has the potential to produce significant effects in behaviour and decision making. We sought to examine whether cognitive fatigue modulates economic decision making.We employed a between-subject manipulation design, inducing fatigue through 60 to 90 minutes of taxing cognitive engagement against a control group that watched relaxing videos for a matched period of time. Both before and after the manipulation, participants engaged in two economic decision making tasks (one for gains and one for losses. The analyses focused on two areas of economic decision making--preferences and choice strategies. Uncertainty preferences (risk and ambiguity were quantified as premium values, defined as the degree and direction in which participants alter the valuation of the gamble in comparison to the certain option. The strategies that each participant engaged in were quantified through a choice strategy metric, which contrasts the degree to which choice behaviour relies upon available satisficing or maximizing information. We separately examined these metrics for alterations within both the gains and losses domains, through the two choice tasks.The fatigue manipulation resulted in significantly greater levels of reported subjective fatigue, with correspondingly higher levels of reported effort during the cognitively taxing activity. Cognitive fatigue did not alter uncertainty preferences (risk or ambiguity or informational strategies, in either the gains or losses domains. Rather, cognitive fatigue resulted in greater test-retest variability across most of our economic measures. These results indicate that cognitive fatigue destabilizes economic decision making, resulting in inconsistent preferences and informational strategies that may significantly reduce decision quality.

  10. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that

  11. A Stochastic Decision Support System for Economic Order Quantity Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Yousefli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving decisions efficiency is one of the major concerns of the decision support systems. Specially in the uncertain environment, decision support systems could be implemented efficiently to simplify decision making process. In this paper stochastic economic order quantity (EOQ problem is investigated in which decision variables and objective function are uncertain in nature and optimum probability distribution functions of them are calculated through a geometric programming model. Obtained probability distribution functions of the decision variables and the objective function are used as optimum knowledge to design a new probabilistic rule base (PRB as a decision support system for EOQ model. The developed PRB is a new type of the stochastic rule bases that can be used to infer optimum or near optimum values of the decision variables and the objective function of the EOQ model without solving the geometric programming problem directly. Comparison between the results of the developed PRB and the optimum solutions which is provided in the numerical example illustrates the efficiency of the developed PRB.

  12. Are economic evaluations an important tool in vaccine policy decisions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Philip

    2011-10-01

    In the 1980s, drug prices began rising considerably worldwide, and in the 1990s, countries began incorporating health economics into the scientific review process. Rising prices in vaccines began around the year 2000 and national bodies began to use health economics to review vaccines in the next decade. Health economics is a discipline that evaluates alternative interventions, balancing costs and health outcomes. There are characteristics of infectious diseases that differ from other illnesses, most notably the herd effect. We reviewed the role of economics in conducting vaccine scientific reviews. We conclude that health economics can move some of the considerations in vaccine policy decision-making from the political to the scientific arena, but there are still many unresolved issues. Health economists will continue to address these issues in the coming years, but there will always be a need for a separate policy review.

  13. Economic decisions for others: an exception to loss aversion law.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flavia Mengarelli

    Full Text Available In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision.

  14. Real analysis with economic applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimizatio

  15. Economics of young stock rearing decisions on Dutch dairy farms

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Nor, N.B.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing intensiveness of agriculture has contributed to environmental pollution through a higher production of waste materials. The environmental and economic pressures mean that it is nowadays important that milk is produced in a more sustainable way. The young stock rearing enterprise also contributes to the sustainability of dairy farming. For example, decisions about the number of young stock to retain on the farm have consequences for the amount of waste produced. A more sustainab...

  16. Economic decision making: application of the theory of complex systems

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Kitt

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and internatio...

  17. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that high

  18. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa;

  19. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; perry, C.J.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa;

  20. Advanced Fuel Cycle Economic Sensitivity Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David Shropshire; Kent Williams; J.D. Smith; Brent Boore

    2006-12-01

    A fuel cycle economic analysis was performed on four fuel cycles to provide a baseline for initial cost comparison using the Gen IV Economic Modeling Work Group G4 ECON spreadsheet model, Decision Programming Language software, the 2006 Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report, industry cost data, international papers, the nuclear power related cost study from MIT, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. The analysis developed and compared the fuel cycle cost component of the total cost of energy for a wide range of fuel cycles including: once through, thermal with fast recycle, continuous fast recycle, and thermal recycle.

  1. Economic Analysis of Transnational Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Donald

    2008-01-01

    This paper considers the effects of a branch campus on the individual college education decision and the economic welfare of a developing country. There are a single domestic college and a single branch campus established by a foreign university. A graduate from the branch campus has an opportunity to emigrate and work abroad, earning a higher…

  2. THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Andreea STROE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

  3. Effects of Age-related Differences in Empathy on Social Economic Decision-Making

    OpenAIRE

    Beadle, Janelle N.; Paradiso, Sergio; Kovach, Christopher; Polgreen, Linnea; Denburg, Natalie; Tranel, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Background: The ways in which aging affects social economic decision-making is a central issue in the psychology of aging. To examine age-related differences in social economic decision-making as a function of empathy, 80 healthy volunteers participated in the Repeated Fixed Opponent Ultimatum Game (UG-R). Previous economic decision-making research has shown that in younger adults empathy is associated with prosocial behavior. The effects of empathy on older adult social economic decision-mak...

  4. An economic theory of patient decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Douglas O; DeMarco, Joseph P

    2005-01-01

    Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making.

  5. Introduction to Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    R. Preston McAfee

    2005-01-01

    This book presents introductory economics ("principles") material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. M...

  6. FINANCIAL INFORMATION, EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC DECISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TAK ISA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial information has, indisputably, an important effect in economics. To form an effective capital market, financial information must be reliable and accurate. Misleading financial information always has a negative impact on economic decision taken by users. It is known that financial information as the cornerstone of financial markets, can improve economic performance in several ways. Nowadays we are facing economic crisis due to irregularities of presentation of financial statements to users. Misunderstandings cause economic recession. Detection of fraudulent financial information, is an important issue facing the auditing profession. Currently, bankruptcy of companies around the world, leaves millions of people without jobs, this is caused by financial information which is manipulated by companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of errors and manipulation committed in the financial information sector on the real economy. Also one of the purposes of this paper is to analyze error and fraud in financial statements how it effects the real economy and the reasons for committing fraud in financial statements. Also, several suggestions are included in this study about actions that can be taken to prevent errors and manipulation in financial information.

  7. Law versus Economics? How should insurance intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision

    OpenAIRE

    Pape, Annika

    2013-01-01

    How should intermediaries influence the insurance demand decision? The answer must refer to the interdependence of economic determinants and legal duties. Intermediaries potentially guide demand decisions by delivering objective information and by considering individuals' situation and economic circumstances. The economic theory provides determinants that are essential for the insurance demand decision. Undoubtedly, consumers lack information about certain variables, and therefore misjudge th...

  8. Enhanced decision support for policy makers using a web interface to health-economic models - Illustrated with a cost-effectiveness analysis of nation-wide infant vaccination with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hubben, G.A.A.; Bos, J.M.; Glynn, D.M.; van der Ende, A.; van Alphen, L.; Postma, M.J.

    2007-01-01

    We have developed a web-based user-interface (web interface) to enhance the usefulness of health-economic evaluations to support decision making (http://pcv.healtheconomics.nl). It allows the user to interact with a health-economic model to evaluate predefined and customized scenarios and perform se

  9. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  10. [Rational drug use: an economic approach to decision making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Daniel Marques; da Silva, Marcelo Gurgel Carlos; Sudo, Elisa Cazue; Ortún, Vicente

    2008-04-01

    The present article approaches rational drug use (RDU) from the economical point of view. The implementation of RDU implies in costs and involves acquisition of knowledge and behavioral changes of several agents. The difficulties in implementing RDU may be due to shortage problems, information asymmetry, lack of information, uncertain clinical decisions, externalities, time-price, incentives for drug prescribers and dispensers, drug prescriber preferences and marginal utility. Health authorities, among other agencies, must therefore regularize, rationalize and control drug use to minimize inefficiency in pharmaceutical care and to prevent exposing the population to unnecessary health risks.

  11. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  12. Determinants of Economic Reasoning in Monetary and Time-Allocation Decisions: An Exploratory Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kourilsky, Marilyn; Kehret-Ward, Trudy

    1983-01-01

    Participation in a college-level economics course appeared to be a very important predictor of economic cognition and of economic reasoning with respect to students' personal monetary decisions. Course participation was not a strong factor in economic reasoning with respect to time-allocation decisions. (RM)

  13. Anniversary Article: Decision Analysis in Management Science

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, James E; Detlof von Winterfeldt

    2004-01-01

    As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After reviewing the foundations of decision analysis and the history of the journal's decision analysis department, we review a number of key developments in decision analysis research that have appeared in Managem...

  14. Economic Analysis of Microsoft Corp.

    OpenAIRE

    Eliáš, Jan

    2013-01-01

    This thesis investigates economic situation of Microsoft Corporation in the last 7 years. In the literature review are introduced theoretical approaches to fundamental and technical tools and how to put fundamental and technical analysis together for best possible result despite the differences in both approaches. In practical part is executed economic analysis with main focus on fundamental and technical analysis and considered social aspects of such a global company. This part is execut...

  15. Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Moran, Rani; Moreland, James; Chater, Nick; Usher, Marius; Summerfield, Christopher

    2016-03-15

    According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pressure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is corrupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a "selective integration" policy that discards information about alternatives with momentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against "late" noise that otherwise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of rational choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing. PMID:26929353

  16. Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Moran, Rani; Moreland, James; Chater, Nick; Usher, Marius; Summerfield, Christopher

    2016-03-15

    According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pressure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is corrupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a "selective integration" policy that discards information about alternatives with momentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against "late" noise that otherwise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of rational choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing.

  17. The management of business risk in justifying economic decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.М. Tarasyuk

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The meaning of risk as an economic category, causes (the connection between the concepts of «risk» and «uncertainty» and its functions were examined in the article. The analysis and assessment methods of risks in agriculture were investigated. Organizational and economic methods for reducing risks to ensure minimal damage to its economic activity, the recommended basic principles which must be followed when choosing a management strategy in a particular situation, from which developed a number of activities for minimizing the risk: risk prevention; acceptance of risk; risk sharing. Organizational and economic methods risks reducing are ensurance minimal damage to its business activities, recommendations of basic principles which must be followed when choosing a management strategy .

  18. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  19. Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that (1) The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run; (2) Exclusion of possibility to trade CO2 emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries; and (3) Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy. The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context

  20. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  1. Is general practitioner decision making associated with patient socio-economic status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, A; Shiell, A; King, M

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a preliminary exploration into the relationship between decisions made by general practitioners (GPs) and the socio-economic status (SES) of patients. There is a large literature on the association between SES, health state and the use of health services, but relatively little has been published on the association between SES and decisions by clinicians once a patient is in the health system. The associations between GP decision making and the patient's SES, health status, gender and insurance status are examined using logit analysis. Three sets of binary choices are analysed: the decision to follow up; to prescribe; and to perform or to order a diagnostic test. Secondary data on consultations for a check up/examination were used to explore these relationships. The results suggest that SES is associated independently with the decision to test and the decision to prescribe but not with the decision to follow up. Patients of high SES are, ceteris paribus, more likely to be tested and less likely to receive a prescription compared with patients of low SES. Women are more likely to be tested and to receive a prescription than men. These findings have implications for the pursuit of equity as a goal of health services policy. PMID:8745106

  2. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

  3. Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Christopher M; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

    2011-09-01

    The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., "Big Five", positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a "rational" versus an "irrational" response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated that participants with "rational" UG performance (accepting any offer, no matter the fairness) endorsed higher levels of trust, or the belief in the sincerity and good intentions of others, while participants with "irrational" UG performance (rejecting unfair offers) endorsed higher levels of negative affect, such as anger and contempt. These personality variables were the only ones that differentiated the two response patterns-demographic and cognitive factors did not differ between rational and irrational players. The results indicate that the examination of personality and affect is crucial to our understanding of the individual differences that underlie decision-making.

  4. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  5. Techno-Economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  6. Comprehensive Evaluation of the Economic Development Level of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone Using Principal Component Cluster Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chunxiang; ZHAO; Xinrong; YAN; Xu; GUO

    2014-01-01

    Based on 10 years of statistics concerning economic development in Xi’an as the main part of Guanzhong- Tianshui Economic Zone, this article builds the main indicator system to reflect economic development. Using two mathematical methods( principal component analysis and cluster analysis),we carry out comprehensive evaluation analysis of the main economic indicators,point out the distribution differences in the economic development level in this region,and make classification,in order to provide a scientific basis for the decision- making body to lay down the relevant economic development strategies in accordance with the economic development level and geographical location.

  7. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  8. Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  9. Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men.

  10. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP)

  11. Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Baicoianu, A.; Dumitrescu, S

    2010-01-01

    Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, ...

  12. Methodology to decide optimum replacement term for components of nuclear power plants using decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mostly, the economic analyses for replacement of major components of Nuclear Power Plants(NPPs) have been performed in deterministic ways. However, the analysis results are more or less affected by the uncertainties associated with input variables. Therefore, it is desirable to use a probabilistic economic analysis method to properly consider uncertainty of real problem. In this paper, the probabilistic economic analysis method and decision analysis technique are briefly described. The probabilistic economy analysis method using decision analysis will provide efficient and accurate way of economic analysis for the repair and/or replace major components of NPPs

  13. Decision Making under Ecological Regime Shift: An Experimental Economic Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Kawata, Yukichika

    2011-01-01

    Environmental economics postulates the assumption of homo economicus and presumes that externality occurs as a result of the rational economic activities of economic agents. This paper examines this assumption using an experimental economic approach in the context of regime shift, which has been receiving increasing attention. We observe that when externality does not exist, economic agents (subjects of experimemt) act economically rationally, but when externality exists, economic agents avoi...

  14. Mathematics at economic university: problems and ways of their decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei Udin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In article problems of teaching of mathematical disciplines at economic universities are considered. The analysis of a state of preparation of entrants last years on the basis of researches PISA and the report of UNESCO on formation in the world is carried out. It is shown that in the conditions of an insufficient financ-ing of education in the Russian Federation and low level of preparation of entrants in the basic subjects, it is necessary to optimize curriculums and to use new educational technologies. It is offered to use the free software designed for carrying out mathematical and econometrics calculations, unique system of genera-tion of examinations and tests, the modern language of programming optimized for use by students of economic specialties, profound studying of tabular processor Microsoft Excel.

  15. Developmental Neuroeconomics: Lifespan Changes in Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Sproten, Alec Niklas

    2013-01-01

    The current thesis had one central aim: contributing to the understanding of age differences in decision making under uncertainty. Three studies were dedicated to investigate age differences in uncertain decisions in individual contexts. A fourth study aimed at developing a framework for the study of age differences in uncertain decisions with a social dimension. In the first study, we have shown the existence of age differences in ambiguous decisions, but not in risky decisions. More spe...

  16. Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

  17. Assessing Climate Information Use in Agribusiness. Part II: Decision Experiments to Estimate Economic Value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonka, Steven T.; Changnon, Stanley A.; Hofing, Steven

    1988-08-01

    Difficulty in evaluating the economic effectiveness of climate information is a significant impediment to expanding the use of that information. An innovative approach, combining a decision experiment and an empirical economic analysis was implemented in this paper as a mans to conduct such an economic evaluation. The decision setting was that of planning the distribution of varieties and amounts of seed corn for a major seed corn producing firm in the midwestern United States. Actual managers, accustomed to making this decision, wore provided forecasts of July and August temperature and precipitation. Their responses to that information were evaluated in terms of cost savings for the firm. Across the range of relevant parameter values tested, savings from the use of perfect forecast information were estimated to be 2% to 5% of production costs. Interestingly, imperfect forecasts of relatively adverse conditions were shown to have considerable value. For example, forecasts of adverse condition accurate only 50% of the time, wore shown to have about two-thirds of the value of perfect forecast information.

  18. Methods for Health Economic Evaluation of Vaccines and Immunization Decision Frameworks : A Consensus Framework from a European Vaccine Economics Community

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ultsch, Bernhard; Damm, Oliver; Beutels, Philippe; Bilcke, Joke; Brueggenjuergen, Bernd; Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Greiner, Wolfgang; Hanquet, Germaine; Hutubessy, Raymond; Jit, Mark; Knol, Mirjam; von Kries, Ruediger; Kuhlmann, Alexander; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Perleth, Matthias; Postma, Maarten; Salo, Heini; Siebert, Uwe; Wasem, Jurgen; Wichmann, Ole

    2016-01-01

    Incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses [health economic evaluations (HEEs)] of vaccines are routinely considered in decision making on immunization in various industrialized countries. While guidelines advocating more standardization of such HEEs (mainly for curative drugs) exist,

  19. Epidemiology and Economics Support Decisions about Freedom from Aquatic Animal Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeler, E J; Otte, M J

    2016-06-01

    In this study, we review the application of epidemiology and economics to decision-making about freedom from aquatic animal disease, at national and regional level, and recent examples from Europe. Epidemiological data (e.g. pathogen prevalence and distribution) determine the technical feasibility and cost of eradication. The eradication of pathogens which exist in wild populations, or in a latent state, is technically difficult, uncertain and expensive. Notably, the eradication of diseases of molluscs is rarely attempted because host populations (farmed and wild) cannot be completely removed from open water systems. Doubt about the success of eradication translates into uncertain ex-ante cost estimates. Additionally, the benefits of an official disease-free status cannot be estimated with any accuracy. For example, in Europe, official freedom from epizootic ulcerative syndrome and white spot syndrome virus has not been pursued, arguably because the evidence does not exist for the benefits (reduced risk of disease in wild populations) to be estimated and thus weighed against the costs of maintaining disease freedom (e.g. restriction on imports). Economic analysis must assess not only whether the benefits of disease freedom outweigh costs, but whether it is the economically optimal disease control option. Government may also want to compare investment in aquatic animal health with other opportunities. As resources become scarce, governments have sought to share costs of disease control with industry, and thus to ensure equity, the distribution benefits must be known so costs can be borne by those who benefit. The economic principles to support decisions about disease freedom are well established, but their application is constrained by lack of epidemiological data, which may explain the lack of economic analysis in support of aquatic animal management in Europe. The integration of epidemiology and economics in disease control planning will identify research aimed at

  20. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  1. Complementary Cognitive Capabilities, Economic Decision-Making, and Aging

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Y.; Baldassi, M; Johnson, EJ; Weber, EU

    2013-01-01

    Fluid intelligence decreases with age, yet evidence about age declines in decision-making quality is mixed: Depending on the study, older adults make worse, equally good, or even better decisions than younger adults. We propose a potential explanation for this puzzle, namely that age differences in decision performance result from the interplay between two sets of cognitive capabilities that impact decision making, one in which older adults fare worse (i.e., fluid intelligence) and one in whi...

  2. The neural basis of economic decision-making in the ultimatum game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanfey, A.G.; Rilling, J.K.; Aronson, J.A.; Nystrom, L.E.; Cohen, J.D.

    2003-01-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision-making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. I

  3. Incidental sadness biases social economic decisions in the ultimatum game

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harlé, K.M.; Sanfey, A.G.

    2007-01-01

    Recent dual-process models of decision making have suggested that emotion plays an important role in decision making: however, the impact of incidental moods (i.e., emotions unrelated to the immediate situation) on decisions remains poorly explored. This question was investigated by inducing 2 basic

  4. Economic analysis: A basic primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doig G

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical knowledge is advancing at an incredible rate. This rapid increase in the fundamental understanding of disease states has led to some important breakthroughs in care over the past ten years and will undoubtedly lead to untold more. At the same time that we are being presented with more options for diagnosis and treatment, governments around the world are fighting to reduce deficit spending and inflation. As a direct result of this combination of reduced spending and increased options for care, medical professionals are being asked to provide more effective care more efficiently. The randomized control trial may be the best way to determine the effectiveness of different options, however, only a full economic analysis can help decide which option is more efficient. This paper is intended to provide the reader with a basic understanding of the methods used to perform a full economic analysis.

  5. Economic Analysis of Contract Law

    OpenAIRE

    Steven Shavell

    2003-01-01

    Contract law governs agreements between parties. This paper contains the chapters on contract law from a general, forthcoming book, Foundations of Economic Analysis of Law (Harvard University Press, 2003). Chapter 13 presents an overview of the subject. Chapter 14 is concerned with contract formation, that is, with the process through which parties find contracting partners, with aspects of contract negotiation, and with the rules governing when an arrangement between parties becomes legally ...

  6. Energy-Systems Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doane, J.; Slonski, M. L.; Borden, C. S.

    1982-01-01

    Energy Systems Economic Analysis (ESEA) program is flexible analytical tool for rank ordering of alternative energy systems. Basic ESEA approach derives an estimate of those costs incurred as result of purchasing, installing and operating an energy system. These costs, suitably aggregated into yearly costs over lifetime of system, are divided by expected yearly energy output to determine busbar energy costs. ESEA, developed in 1979, is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution.

  7. Decision making from economic and signal detection perspectives: development of an integrated framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Spencer K.; Wormwood, Jolie B.; Barrett, Lisa F.; Quigley, Karen S.

    2015-01-01

    Behavior is comprised of decisions made from moment to moment (i.e., to respond one way or another). Often, the decision maker cannot be certain of the value to be accrued from the decision (i.e., the outcome value). Decisions made under outcome value uncertainty form the basis of the economic framework of decision making. Behavior is also based on perception—perception of the external physical world and of the internal bodily milieu, which both provide cues that guide decision making. These perceptual signals are also often uncertain: another person's scowling facial expression may indicate threat or intense concentration, alternatives that require different responses from the perceiver. Decisions made under perceptual uncertainty form the basis of the signals framework of decision making. Traditional behavioral economic approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that comes from variability in possible outcome values, and typically ignore the influence of perceptual uncertainty. Conversely, traditional signal detection approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that arises from variability in perceptual signals and typically ignore the influence of outcome value uncertainty. Here, we compare and contrast the economic and signals frameworks that guide research in decision making, with the aim of promoting their integration. We show that an integrated framework can expand our ability to understand a wider variety of decision-making behaviors, in particular the complexly determined real-world decisions we all make every day. PMID:26217275

  8. Decision making from economic and signal detection perspectives: Development of an integrated framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spencer K. Lynn

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Behavior is comprised of decisions made from moment to moment (i.e., to respond one way or another. Often, the decision maker cannot be certain of the value to be accrued from the decision (i.e., the outcome value. Decisions made under outcome value uncertainty form the basis of the economic framework of decision making. Behavior is also based on perception — perception of the external physical world and of the internal bodily milieu, which both provide cues that guide decision making. These perceptual signals are also often uncertain: another person’s scowling facial expression may indicate threat or intense concentration, alternatives that require different responses from the perceiver. Decisions made under perceptual uncertainty form the basis of the signals framework of decision making. Traditional behavioral economic approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that comes from variability in possible outcome values, and typically ignore the influence of perceptual uncertainty. Conversely, traditional signal detection approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that arises from variability in perceptual signals and typically ignore the influence of outcome value uncertainty. Here, we compare and contrast the economic and signals frameworks that guide research in decision making, with the aim of promoting their integration. We show that an integrated framework can expand our ability to understand a wider variety of decision-making behaviors, in particular the complexly determined real-world decisions we all make every day.

  9. Economic analysis of fuel recycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Economic analysis was performed at KAERI with the assistance of US DOE to compare single reactor fuel cycle costs for a once-through option and a thermal recycle option to operate 1 GWe of a PWR plant for its lifetime. A reference fuel cycle cost was first calculated for each option with best estimated reference input data. Then a sensitivity analysis was performed changing each single value of such fuel cycle component costs as yellow cake price, enrichment charges, spent fuel storage cost, reprocessing cost, spent fuel disposal cost and reprocessing waste disposal cost. Savings due to thermal recycle in requirements of uranium, conversion, and enrichment were examined using formulas suggested by US DOE, while MOX fabrication penalty was accounted for. As a result of the reference fuel cycle cost analysis, it is calculated that the thermal recycle option is marginally more economical than the once-through option. The major factors affecting the comparative costs between thermal recycle and once-through are the costs of reprocessing, spent fuel storage and the difference between spent fuel disposal and reprocessing waste disposal. However, considering the uncertainty in these cost parameters there seems no immediate economic incentive for thermal recycle at the present time

  10. Verbal Decision Analysis: Foundations and Trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen M. Moshkovich

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary goal of research in multiple criteria decision analysis is to develop tools to help people make more reasonable decisions. In many cases, the development of such tools requires the combination of knowledge derived from such areas as applied mathematics, cognitive psychology, and organizational behavior. Verbal Decision Analysis (VDA is an example of such a combination. It is based on valid mathematical principles, takes into account peculiarities of human information processing system, and fits the decision process into existing organizational environments. The basic underpinnings of Verbal Decision Analysis are demonstrated by early VDA methods, such as ZAPROS and ORCLASS. New trends in their later modifications are discussed. Published applications of VDA methods are presented to support the findings.

  11. Cost estimate and economic issues associated with the MOX option (prior to DOE's record of decision)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Before the January 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE-MD) evaluated three technologies for the disposition of ∼50 MT of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs-reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting the ROD, and comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule was conducted by DOE-MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This report discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results for the reactor options considered prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the report is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of the reactor option and other technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This report includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs for all nine reactor scenarios

  12. Does crime affect economic decisions? An empirical investigation of savings in a high-crime environment

    OpenAIRE

    João Manoel Pinho de Mello; Eduardo Zilberman

    2006-01-01

    While most economic studies of crime have focused on its determinants, we study the reverse question: does crime affect economic behavior? Being such an important social phenomenon, one would expect crime to affect economic decisions. Using local data on crime rates and savings per capita in a high-crime environment, we document a striking empirical relationship: crime induces savings. Our paper is one of the first to successfully relate crime to an economic outcome. This result is robust to ...

  13. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, E. S.; Lee, K. S.

    2008-10-01

    This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs) for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE) method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI). The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD), and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD) and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR) framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  14. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Chung

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  15. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, covering the four columns: technical, environmental, economic and social aspects. To develop the model an intensive literature review have been conducted. T...

  16. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decision-making in obesity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob eSimmank

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n=52 completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discounting rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before the financial decision. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity towards changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

  17. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decisions in people with obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmank, Jakob; Murawski, Carsten; Bode, Stefan; Horstmann, Annette

    2015-01-01

    Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n = 52) completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discount rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before making financial decisions. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity toward changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short. PMID:26528158

  18. The Felbertauern landslide of 2013: Traffic disruption, regional economic consequences and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Genovese, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Felbertauern landslide of May 2013 caused the total destruction of approximately 100 meters of road including an avalanche gallery, generating several direct and indirect impacts on the regional-economy. The Felbertauern road, an important traffic arteria for the whole NUTS-3 region East-Tyrol (Austria), was totally blocked for several weeks. Short after the event, regional decision makers were hardly in need for an estimation of the regional-economic impacts of the road blockage to opt for alternatives to reopen the road. So, two weeks after the event, an analysis of the possible effects was carried out using only scattered information and statistical data. The analysis is based on a three-month interruption scenario. Retrospectively the road blockage was only two months. Due to the fact that short after the event no up-to-date data on regional-economics at necessary scales was available, impacts on tourism by analysing overnight stays, additional transportation costs and time losses for the local companies were calculated. Using these numbers, a cost-benefit-analysis was carried out for a projected bypass, a mid-term 1.5 kilometer long route as an alternative to the destroyed road. Finally, the impacts on the local companies were severe, due to additional transportation costs of approx. Euro 1.4 million and Euro 76 000 additional time costs using an alternative approach. The impacts on regional tourism were calculated with Euro 7.7 to 10.7 million - that means 0.6 to 0.8% of the total economic output of the region. The study shows the strong impact of indirect and business interruption costs on regional economies and describes the major problems faced during the study - in particular the low availability of input data. The results of consistent cost assessment are critical for decision makers who are responsible for the development of policies to prevent the impacts on societies.

  19. Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Nielsen, Ron W

    2015-01-01

    Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search for takeoffs from stagnation to growth produced negative results. This analysis throws a new light on the interpretation of the mechanism of the historical economic growth and s...

  20. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    OpenAIRE

    TobiasKalenscher

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particu...

  1. Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particu...

  2. Development of the Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Managerial Decisions as a Factor of Economic Security Increase

    OpenAIRE

    Olga Aleksandrovna Romanova; Vladimir Yevgenyevich Strovskiy

    2016-01-01

    In the article, it is noted that the emergence of the phenomenon of interdependence between security and development — so-called security-development nexus, becomes determining during the development of strategic documents at all hierarchical levels. It gives relevance to the search of the methodological decisions allowing to consider the possible threats to economic security at the strategic level, and the pragmatical actions which are not contradicting a strategic vector of economic entitie...

  3. Foundations of Decision Analysis: Along the Way

    OpenAIRE

    Peter C. Fishburn

    1989-01-01

    This paper offers a personal perspective on the development of decision theory and related subjects during the past half century. It first reviews six milestones in the foundations of decision analysis that are associated with Frank P. Ramsey, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Leonard J. Savage, Maurice Allais and Ward Edwards, West Churchman and Russell Ackoff, and Kenneth Arrow. It then gives a personal account of further developments over the past 30 years in linear utility theory, s...

  4. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross l

  5. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    OpenAIRE

    Summerfield, Christopher; Tsetsos, Konstantinos

    2012-01-01

    Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision-making (PDM) is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate, and categorize noisy sensory information. Economic decision-making (EDM) explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the sub-fields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored diffe...

  6. Economic modelling to optimize dairy heifer management decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mourits, M.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of heifer rearing within a dairy farm is to produce high quality dairy replacements at low costs. Heifer management decisions interact with the biological aspects of growth, thereby influencing the future profitability of the heifer. To maximize profitability farmers need to be aware o

  7. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika; Holmqvist, Kenneth;

    2013-01-01

    Misleading information and unfair commercial practices have to be viewed against the background of what consumers otherwise do, i.e., what their purchase decisions look like when no misleading information or no unfair commercial practices are in place. This article provides some of this background...

  8. Economic Periodicity Analysis of Shandong Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Zhaode; Yao Lili; Sun Jinfang; Yu Wei

    2008-01-01

    The paper analyses the periodical characteristics of the economic development of Shandong Province by using the mini-mum variation analysis model. The analysis shows that the eco-nomic development process of Shandong Province has short, medium and long cycles respectively for 6, 12, 19 years, and the fluctuation of the economic development becomes gentler with time passing by. The fluctuation of macro-control policy, invest-ment and consumption are the main reasons of the economic fluc-tuation.

  9. The impact of economic uncertainty on the energy decision making process: Nuclear energy in Israel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The study presented here is based on an analysis undertaken to evaluate the feasibility of establishing nuclear power plants in Israel. While the actual figures for the various sensitivity tests are somewhat disguised because of the sensitivity of the topic, the relative impact of moving from one assumption to another is presented and analysed. A matrix of qualitative results has been formulated for this analysis and, once these relationships have been established qualitatively, subjective weights have been applied to the various assumptions of the three most relevant parameters, the deviations from the most probable coal price, discount rate and level of investment. The analysis evaluates the impact of these weights on the decision as to whether the project prospects are most favourable, are of marginal value, or should be rejected. The significance of this analysis is its demonstration of the major role to be played by the economic planner within each country, and his responsibility to provide macro-economic guidelines for evaluating major infrastructural undertakings such as energy projects

  10. Economic potential of market-oriented water storage decisions: Evidence from Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan, Donna

    2010-08-01

    Significant reforms made to Australian irrigation property rights in recent years have enabled the development of an active seasonal water market. In contrast, decisions regarding the allocation of water across time are typically based on central decisions, with little or no opportunity offered to irrigators to manage risk by physically transferring their water access right between years by leaving it in the public dam. An empirical examination of the economics of water storage is presented using a case study of the Goulburn Valley, a major irrigation region in the state of Victoria. It is shown that, compared to the historically used, centrally determined storage policy, a market-based storage policy would store more water, on average, and would also allocate more water in periods of low rainfall. The analysis indicates that the costs associated with a recent prolonged drought were $100 million more than they would have been if water storage decisions had been guided by the market and prices were 3 times higher.

  11. Marketing Decision Support Systems and the New Economic Challenges

    OpenAIRE

    Rocsana Bucea-Manea-Tonis; Radu Bucea-Manea-Tonis

    2011-01-01

    Even marketing is told to sell dreams to customers, it must take into account the real power of potential markets consumption that relies on the economic state-of-affairs. If the economic draw-back must change the methods used by marketing strategists or how the crises that lead to under-consumption even for the most common goods affect the publicity budget, it is a fair study to be made. We can only imagine how a commercial for a tiny electric car will appeal the inflated ego of a man from t...

  12. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  13. The use of economic-mathematical methods and models in the process of making management decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izotov Viktor

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The article proves the relevance of the application of methods of decision-making on the basis of economic-mathematical modeling. It is shown, that application of economic and mathematical methods allows to considerably enhance the quality of strategic, tactical and current planning, to receive the additional effect without the involvement in the process of additional resources.

  14. Heterogeneous Economic and Behavioural Drivers of the Farm Afforestation Decision

    OpenAIRE

    Ryan, Mary; O' Donoghue, Cathal; Upton, Vincent; Handgraaf, Michael

    2015-01-01

    In the context of incentivising farm afforestation to provide ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration to mitigate greenhouse gas production, this paper sheds new light on the complexity of the farm afforestation decision and the characteristics of the farms and the farmers who are likely or unlikely to afforest land. Using a panel dataset of farm level micro-data, we observe whether farming intensity changes as a result of planting. We generate forest and agriculture income streams an...

  15. Economics of young stock rearing decisions on Dutch dairy farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohd Nor, N.B.

    2015-01-01

    The increasing intensiveness of agriculture has contributed to environmental pollution through a higher production of waste materials. The environmental and economic pressures mean that it is nowadays important that milk is produced in a more sustainable way. The young stock rearing enterprise also

  16. Discounting in economic evaluations : Stepping forward towards optimal decision rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Niessen, Louis; Postma, Maarten; Rutten, Frans

    2007-01-01

    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence has recently changed its guidelines on discounting costs and effects in economic evaluations. In common with most other regulatory bodies it now requires that health effects should be discounted at the same rate as costs. We show that the guideline lead

  17. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  18. An economic decision-making support system for selection of reproductive management programs on dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, J O; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2011-12-01

    Because the reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows influences the profitability of dairy operations, predicting the future reproductive and economic performance of dairy herds through decision support systems would be valuable to dairy producers and consultants. In this study, we present a highly adaptable tool created based on a mathematical model combining Markov chain simulation with partial budgeting to obtain the net present value (NPV; $/cow per year) of different reproductive management programs. The growing complexity of reproductive programs used by dairy farms demands that new decision support systems precisely reflect the events that occur on the farm. Therefore, the model requires productive, reproductive, and economic input data used for simulation of farm conditions to account for all factors related to reproductive management that increase costs and generate revenue. The economic performance of 3 different reproductive programs can be simultaneously compared with the current model. A program utilizing 100% visual estrous detection (ED) for artificial insemination (AI) is used as a baseline for comparison with 2 other programs that may include 100% timed AI (TAI) as well as any combination of TAI and ED. A case study is presented in which the model was used to compare 3 different reproductive management strategies (100% ED baseline compared with two 100% TAI options) using data from a commercial farm in Wisconsin. Sensitivity analysis was then used to assess the effect of varying specific reproductive parameters on the NPV. Under the simulated conditions of the case study, the model indicated that the two 100% TAI programs were superior to the 100% ED program and, of the 100% TAI programs, the one with the higher conception rate (CR) for resynchronized AI services was economically superior despite having higher costs and a longer interbreeding interval. A 4% increase in CR for resynchronized AI was sufficient for the inferior 100% TAI to

  19. An economic decision-making support system for selection of reproductive management programs on dairy farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giordano, J O; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2011-12-01

    Because the reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows influences the profitability of dairy operations, predicting the future reproductive and economic performance of dairy herds through decision support systems would be valuable to dairy producers and consultants. In this study, we present a highly adaptable tool created based on a mathematical model combining Markov chain simulation with partial budgeting to obtain the net present value (NPV; $/cow per year) of different reproductive management programs. The growing complexity of reproductive programs used by dairy farms demands that new decision support systems precisely reflect the events that occur on the farm. Therefore, the model requires productive, reproductive, and economic input data used for simulation of farm conditions to account for all factors related to reproductive management that increase costs and generate revenue. The economic performance of 3 different reproductive programs can be simultaneously compared with the current model. A program utilizing 100% visual estrous detection (ED) for artificial insemination (AI) is used as a baseline for comparison with 2 other programs that may include 100% timed AI (TAI) as well as any combination of TAI and ED. A case study is presented in which the model was used to compare 3 different reproductive management strategies (100% ED baseline compared with two 100% TAI options) using data from a commercial farm in Wisconsin. Sensitivity analysis was then used to assess the effect of varying specific reproductive parameters on the NPV. Under the simulated conditions of the case study, the model indicated that the two 100% TAI programs were superior to the 100% ED program and, of the 100% TAI programs, the one with the higher conception rate (CR) for resynchronized AI services was economically superior despite having higher costs and a longer interbreeding interval. A 4% increase in CR for resynchronized AI was sufficient for the inferior 100% TAI to

  20. Environmental protection and economic policy decisions in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Uhlig, Christian

    1992-01-01

    In view of the extent of environmental destruction in the Third World, it is necessary to make urgent use of all the instruments available in order to protect the environment and conserve natural resources. However, the priorities both of the people there and of their governments are more often aimed at economic growth than environmental protection, due to the low standards of living prevailing in these countries. How can this conflict of interests, which will be one of the main issues being ...

  1. Financial information, effects of financial information on economic decision

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Ioan UŞURELU; Alina Elena (Andrei) DANAILĂ; Mihai, Gabriela; Cristian Ionel VĂTĂŞOIU

    2010-01-01

    The studied field has suffered continuous transformation, both in interaction with other scientific fields and in constituent sub-classes, for discovering and understanding more deeply the contemporary economic realities under the impact of major trends of world development. This paper aims to analyze the location and the effects of information and communication technologies within the public accounting in order to evaluate the effects of this element on accounting research, teaching and prof...

  2. Economic Analysis on Wastewater Reuse

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yushan WAN; Na LI

    2012-01-01

    Abstract The shortage of water resources social development. Wastewater reuse is an has become a major limiting factor for effective solution to solve water short- ages, which not only has economic benefits, but also has significant social and en- vironmental benefits. The economic evaluation is an important component in the study of wastewater reuse feasibility and the basis for the program optimization and economic feasibility determination.

  3. Economic analysis of production bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence Stephen R.

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available The management of bottlenecks has become a central topic in the planning and control of production systems. In this paper, we critically analyze bottlenecks from an economic perspective. Using a queueing network model, we demonstrate that bottlenecks are inevitable when there are differences in job arrival rates, processing rates, or costs of productive resources. These differences naturally lead to the creation of bottlenecks both for facilities design and demand planning problems. To evaluate bottlenecks from an economic perspective, we develop the notion of an “economic bottleneck,” which defines resources as bottlenecks based on economic, rather than physical, characteristics.

  4. Data mining meets economic analysis: opportunities and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baicoianu, A.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Along with the increase of economic globalization and the evolution of information technology, data mining has become an important approach for economic data analysis. As a result, there has been a critical need for automated approaches to effective and efficient usage of massive amount of economic data, in order to support both companies’ and individuals’ strategic planning and investment decision-making. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the impact of data mining techniques on sales, customer satisfaction and corporate profits. To this end, we present different data mining techniques and we discuss important data mining issues involved in specific economic applications. In addition, we discuss about a new method based on Boolean functions, LAD, which is successfully applied to data analysis. Finally, we highlight a number of challenges and opportunities for future research.

  5. Multicriteria decision aid/analysis in finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Spronk (Jaap); R.E. Steuer; C. Zopounidis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractMULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is the most comprehensive work available to survey the state of the art in MCDA to date. Its 25 chapters are organized in eight parts and are written by 52 international leading experts. Each of these parts covers one of the c

  6. Photovoltaic systems: an economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cirillo, E.; Lazzarin, R.; Fato, I. (Bari Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Tecnica e Impianti Termotecnici)

    Costs and benefits of a photovoltaic plant intended for residential utilization and connected to the supply mains are evaluated. Three types of panels (mono, polycrystalline and amorphous silicon) are considered in determining the optimum economical size. Criteria for estimating the economically convenient peak watt cost compared with the mains supply cost are suggested.

  7. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of genderparticipation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selectionof crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children's education, while females always made decision on types of food forhome consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significantfactors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making.Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of womeninvolvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operativesocieties are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economicactivities and decision making.

  8. Committees versus individuals: an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    Lombardelli, Clare; Proudman, James; Talbot, James

    2002-01-01

    The results of an experimental analysis of monetary policy decision-making under uncertainty are reported. A large sample of economically literate undergraduate and postgraduate students from the London School of Economics was used to play a simple monetary policy game, both as individuals and in committees of five players. The findings - that groups make better decisions than individuals - accord with previous work by Blinder and Morgan. An attempt was also made to establish why group decisi...

  9. Space tug economic analysis study. Volume 2: Tug concepts analysis. Part 2: Economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    An economic analysis of space tug operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) cost uncertainties, (2) scenario analysis, (3) economic sensitivities, (4) mixed integer programming formulation of the space tug problem, and (5) critical parameters in the evaluation of a public expenditure.

  10. Managing resources in NHS dentistry: using health economics to inform commissioning decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Exley Catherine E

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of this study is to develop, apply and evaluate an economics-based framework to assist commissioners in their management of finite resources for local dental services. In April 2006, Primary Care Trusts in England were charged with managing finite dental budgets for the first time, yet several independent reports have since criticised the variability in commissioning skills within these organisations. The study will explore the views of stakeholders (dentists, patients and commissioners regarding priority setting and the criteria used for decision-making and resource allocation. Two inter-related case studies will explore the dental commissioning and resource allocation processes through the application of a pragmatic economics-based framework known as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis. Methods/Design The study will adopt an action research approach. Qualitative methods including semi-structured interviews, focus groups, field notes and document analysis will record the views of participants and their involvement in the research process. The first case study will be based within a Primary Care Trust where mixed methods will record the views of dentists, patients and dental commissioners on issues, priorities and processes associated with managing local dental services. A Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis framework will be applied to determine the potential value of economic principles to the decision-making process. A further case study will be conducted in a secondary care dental teaching hospital using the same approach. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis and managed using a framework approach. Discussion The recent announcement by government regarding the proposed abolition of Primary Care Trusts may pose challenges for the research team regarding their engagement with the research study. However, whichever commissioning organisations are responsible for resource allocation

  11. Interest rate and Economic Growth as Determinants of Firm Investment Decision: An Investigation on BIST listed firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan AYAYDIN

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This study aims to investigate the effect of political uncertainty as a determinant of investment decisions on investment decisions of firms. For this purpose, this study involves 147 BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange listed firms displaying activity in the industry sector between 2008 and 2013. Panel data analysis with relevant quarterly data was used to analyze the relationship between political uncertainty and investment decisions of firms. Analysis results have revealed a statistically significant relationship between investments of firms and the variable representing 29 March 2009 General Local Elections, 12 June 2011 General Elections and 12 September 2010 New Constitution Referendum as an indicator of political uncertainty. This verifies the argument suggesting an uncertainty due to elections may negatively affect investments of firms through inefficient capital allocation, and this can be said to provide a strong message with regard to important economic effects of political uncertainty.Keywords. Political uncertainty, Elections, Firm investments.JEL. D92, E21.

  12. Effects of Economic Dependency on Decision Making Power of Women in Rural Areas of Tehsil Dera Ghazi Khan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahanzaib Haider

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Rural women are economically dependent on men especially in the developing countries. Economic dependency is the degree in which a person relies upon others to fulfilling his or her needs. This study was conducted to known the effects of economic dependency on decision making power of rural women. Rural women were economically depended on their husbands and they were not free to spend their own income on their will because of the culture and patriarchal society. The researcher found that majority of rural women were economically depend on their men and this economic dependency effect their decision making power. Mostly their husband took the decision in their family. They got money for their personal needs from their husbands. The researchers found that majority of rural women were not participating in decisions regarding family affairs and other affairs of their life due to economic dependency. The researcher found there is association between economic dependency and decision making power of women.

  13. Economic Logic and Turn of Its Research Paradigm Based on Analysis of Bayesian Decision Theory:on XI Jin-ping’s Economic Thought%贝叶斯决策理论视域下的经济逻辑及其研究范式转向--兼析习近平经济思想

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李章吕

    2016-01-01

    经济逻辑学是经济学和逻辑学的交叉学科,它的产生有其必然性,我们可以从经济学的基本假设、经济学的研究方法、经济学研究的确定性以及逻辑学的发展等几个角度给予论证。从贝叶斯决策理论的视角看,它是研究经济活动中理性决策和策略推理的科学。在理论驱动力和现实驱动力的双重作用下,经济逻辑的研究已开始了由形式逻辑范式向科学逻辑范式的转向。%Economic logic is the inter-discipline subject of economics and logic and comes into being inevitably.We can argue from several angles such as the basic hypothesis of economics,the research methods of economics,economics of uncertainty,and the development of logic and so on.From the perspective of the bayesian decision theory,it is the study of the science of rational decision making and strategy reasoning in the economic activities.Under the dual role of driving force theory and prac-tical driving force,the study of the economic logic has began to shift from the formal logic paradigm to the scientific logic paradigm.

  14. Health economic analysis of screening

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krauth, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article health economic implications of screening are analysed. First, requirements screening programmes should fulfil are derived, and methodical standards of health economic evaluation are outlined. Using the example of newborn hearing screening, it is then examined if empirical studies meet the methodical requirements of health economic evaluation. Some deficits are realised: Health economic studies of newborn hearing screening are not randomised, most studies are even not controlled. Therefore, most studies do not present incremental, but only average cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e. cost per case identified. Furthermore, evidence on long-term outcomes of screening and early interventions is insufficient. In conclusion, there is a need for controlled trials to examine differences in identified cases, but particularly to examine long-term effects.

  15. ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models

    OpenAIRE

    Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M. J.; Feenstra, T.L.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross list of model validation techniques was collected using a literature review, including sources outside the HE field. A panel then selected the most important items. Based on the Delphi method, the p...

  16. Principles and Practices for Making Statistics Relevant for Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    J. Steven Landefeld

    2000-01-01

    One of the most important goals of agencies producing economic statistics is that those statistics be relevant and regularly used by public and private decision makers. Achieving this goal requires several elements including accuracy, timeliness, and sound concepts and methods. However, perhaps most important, in a world of constrained resources, it requires focusing on those statistics that are most important to decision makers in the public and private sector. And this may be the most diffi...

  17. The Decision on Commercialisation of Scientific and Technical Developments in the Economic Cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buyanova Marina Eduardovna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the implementation of the strategy of national economy innovative development, the urgent problem consists in the development of the mechanism of commercialization of existing or newly emerging developments. On the basis of comparative analysis, the competency models of creation and commercialization of scientific and technological developments are presented. They include state, scientific and industrial as well as industrial and scientific models allocated by the following criteria: the initiator of an STD; the cooperation technique within the cluster. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are substantiated. The authors propose the technique of decision-making on the STD commercialization in the conditions of the cluster economic system formation taking into account the expansion of the participants’ integration at the regional market. The technique consists of a few methods and is based on the construction of a “decision tree”; it suggests a multi-level approach and provides a review of existing problems and identifying possible risks in implementing innovation activity. For evaluating the innovative projects the authors propose the matrix of criteria for a developer and for a potential manufacturer of a scientific and technological solution. These criteria may be complemented by the implementation of specific ones during the innovative development under certain conditions.

  18. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher eSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  19. The different modes of hydro-economic analysis (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harou, J. J.; Binions, O.; Erfani, T.

    2013-12-01

    In the face of growing water demands, climate change and spatial and temporal water access variability, accurately assessing the economic impacts of proposed water resource management changes is useful. The objective of this project funded by UK Water Industry Research was to present and demonstrate a framework for identifying and using the ';value of water' to enable water utilities and their regulators to make better decisions. A hydro-economic model can help evaluate water management options in terms of their hydrological and economic impact at different locations throughout a catchment over time. In this talk we discuss three modes in which hydro-economic models can be implemented: evaluative, behavioral and prescriptive. In evaluation mode economic water demand and benefit functions are used to post-process water resource management model results to assess the economic impacts (over space and time) of a policy under consideration. In behavioral hydro-economic models users are represented as agents and the economics is used to help predict their actions. In prescriptive mode optimization is used to find the most economically efficient management actions such as allocation patterns or source selection. These three types of hydro-economic analysis are demonstrated on a UK watershed (Great River Ouse) that includes 97 different water abstractors from amongst the public water supply, agriculture, industry and energy plant cooling sectors. The following issues under dry and normal historical conditions were investigated: Supply/demand investment planning, societal cost of environmental flows, water market prices, and scarcity-sensitive charges for water rights. The talk discusses which hydro-economic modeling mode is used to study each of these issues and why; example results are shown and discussed. The topic of how hydro-economic models can be built and deployed effectively is covered along with how existing water utility operational and planning tools can be

  20. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of gender participation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selection of crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children’s education, while females always made decision on types of food for home consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significant factors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making. Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of women involvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operative societies are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economic activities and decision making.

  1. How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?

    OpenAIRE

    Parodi Trece, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are ...

  2. Applying health economics for policy decision making: do devices differ from drugs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorenson, Corinna; Tarricone, Rosanna; Siebert, Markus; Drummond, Michael

    2011-05-01

    Medical devices pose unique challenges for economic evaluation and associated decision-making processes that differ from pharmaceuticals. We highlight and discuss these challenges in the context of cardiac device therapy, based on a systematic review of relevant economic evaluations. Key challenges include practical difficulties in conducting randomized clinical trials, allowing for a 'learning curve' and user characteristics, accounting for the wider organizational impacts of introducing new devices, and allowing for variations in product characteristics and prices over time.

  3. Cognitive control and individual differences in economic ultimatum decision-making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim De Neys

    Full Text Available Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responders. The key finding was that people who were higher in cognitive control, as measured by behavioral (Go/No-Go performance and neural (No-Go N2 amplitude markers, did tend to behave more in line with the standard models and showed increased acceptance of unequal splits. Hence, the cognitively highest scoring decision-makers were more likely to maximize their monetary payoffs and adhere to the standard economic predictions. Findings question popular claims with respect to the rejection of standard economic models and the irrationality of human economic decision-making.

  4. Interactive Decision Analysis; Proceedings of an International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence, Laxenburg, Austria, September 20-23, 1983

    OpenAIRE

    Grauer, M.; A.P. Wierzbicki

    1984-01-01

    An International Workshop on Interactive Decision Analysis and Interpretative Computer Intelligence was held at IIASA in September 1983. The Workshop was motivated, firstly, by the realization that the rapid development of computers, especially microcomputers, will greatly increase the scope and capabilities of computerized decision-support systems. It is important to explore the potential of these systems for use in handling the complex technological, environmental, economic and social probl...

  5. Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

    2016-02-01

    Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results. PMID:26496882

  6. Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

  7. Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Xie, Linyin

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation concentrates on analysis of economic factors affecting Chinese stock market through examining relationship between stock market index and economic factors. Six economic variables are examined: industrial production, money supply 1, money supply 2, exchange rate, long-term government bond yield and real estate total value. Stock market comprises fixed interest stocks and equities shares. In this dissertation, stock market is restricted to equity market. The stock price in thi...

  8. Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian ZUGRAVU

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standardfour input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due topartly unnecessary waste of energy. The changes in production efficiencyinvestigated using stochastic frontier methods, show declining technicalefficiency in livestock production and especially low marginal contribution oflabor inputs. The number of workers, size of farm, and distance from nearestcity are related to efficiency in agricultural production. It is well known thatresults from an environmental policy in response to global climate change arequite sensitive to the assumption on the rate of energy efficiency improvements.However, technical progress is traditionally considered as a non-economicvariable in economic policy models. It is exogenous in most policy evaluationsas well as in the theory of environmental economics.

  9. Pet Overpopulation: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...

  10. Decision-Making Under Risk: Integrating Perspectives From Biology, Economics, and Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Sandeep

    2014-04-25

    Decision-making under risk has been variably characterized and examined in many different disciplines. However, interdisciplinary integration has not been forthcoming. Classic theories of decision-making have not been amply revised in light of greater empirical data on actual patterns of decision-making behavior. Furthermore, the meta-theoretical framework of evolution by natural selection has been largely ignored in theories of decision-making under risk in the human behavioral sciences. In this review, I critically examine four of the most influential theories of decision-making from economics, psychology, and biology: expected utility theory, prospect theory, risk-sensitivity theory, and heuristic approaches. I focus especially on risk-sensitivity theory, which offers a framework for understanding decision-making under risk that explicitly involves evolutionary considerations. I also review robust empirical evidence for individual differences and environmental/situational factors that predict actual risky decision-making that any general theory must account for. Finally, I offer steps toward integrating various theoretical perspectives and empirical findings on risky decision-making. PMID:24769798

  11. The Neural Basis of Economic Decision-Making in the Ultimatum Game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanfey, Alan G.; Rilling, James K.; Aronson, Jessica A.; Nystrom, Leigh E.; Cohen, Jonathan D.

    2003-06-01

    The nascent field of neuroeconomics seeks to ground economic decision- making in the biological substrate of the brain. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging of Ultimatum Game players to investigate neural substrates of cognitive and emotional processes involved in economic decision-making. In this game, two players split a sum of money; one player proposes a division and the other can accept or reject this. We scanned players as they responded to fair and unfair proposals. Unfair offers elicited activity in brain areas related to both emotion (anterior insula) and cognition (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, significantly heightened activity in anterior insula for rejected unfair offers suggests an important role for emotions in decision-making.

  12. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney MR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

  13. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth eLim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  14. A cross-cultural study of noblesse oblige in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiddick, Laurence; Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Janicki, Maria; Lee, Sean; Erlich, Nicole

    2013-09-01

    A cornerstone of economic theory is that rational agents are self-interested, yet a decade of research in experimental economics has shown that economic decisions are frequently driven by concerns for fairness, equity, and reciprocity. One aspect of other-regarding behavior that has garnered attention is noblesse oblige, a social norm that obligates those of higher status to be generous in their dealings with those of lower status. The results of a cross-cultural study are reported in which marked noblesse oblige was observed on a reciprocal-contract decision-making task. Participants from seven countries that vary along hierarchical and individualist/collectivist social dimensions were more tolerant of non-reciprocation when they adopted a high-ranking perspective compared with a low-ranking perspective. PMID:23749462

  15. A cross-cultural study of noblesse oblige in economic decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiddick, Laurence; Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Janicki, Maria; Lee, Sean; Erlich, Nicole

    2013-09-01

    A cornerstone of economic theory is that rational agents are self-interested, yet a decade of research in experimental economics has shown that economic decisions are frequently driven by concerns for fairness, equity, and reciprocity. One aspect of other-regarding behavior that has garnered attention is noblesse oblige, a social norm that obligates those of higher status to be generous in their dealings with those of lower status. The results of a cross-cultural study are reported in which marked noblesse oblige was observed on a reciprocal-contract decision-making task. Participants from seven countries that vary along hierarchical and individualist/collectivist social dimensions were more tolerant of non-reciprocation when they adopted a high-ranking perspective compared with a low-ranking perspective.

  16. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to analyze how the economics of nuclear power generation are affected by the change in nuclear environmental factors and then, to suggest desirable policy directions to improve the efficiency of the use of nuclear energy resources in korea. This study focused to analyze the impact of the change in 3 major nuclear environmental factors in Korea on the economics of nuclear power generation. To do this, environmental external cost, nuclear R and fund, and carbon emission control according to UNFCCC were selected as the major factors. First of all, this study evaluated the impacts on the health and the environment of air pollutants emitted from coal power plant and nuclear power plant, two major electric power generating options in Korea. Then, the environmental external costs of those two options were estimated by transforming the health and environmental impact in to monetary values. To do this, AIRPACTS and 'Impacts of atmospheric release' model developed by IAEA were used. Secondly, the impact of nuclear R and D fund raised by the utility on the increment of nuclear power generating cost was evaluated. Then, the desirable size of the fund in Korea was suggested by taking into consideration the case of Japan. This study also analyzed the influences of the fund on the economics of nuclear power generation. Finally, the role of nuclear power under the carbon emission regulation was analyzed. To do this, the econometric model was developed and the impact of the regulation on the national economy was estimated. Further efforts were made to estimate the role by developing CGE model in order to improve the reliability of the results from the econometric model

  17. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study consists of various issues as follows; electricity price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, establishment of carbon emission limit in national electricity sector, the role of nuclear power as an future energy supply option, the future prospect of CO2 capture and sequestration and current research status of that area in Korea, and Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer). In the price regulation in the liberalized electricity market, the characteristic of liberalized electricity market in terms of regulation was discussed. The current status and future projection of GHG emission in Korean electricity sector was also investigated. After that, how to set the GHG emission limit in the national electricity sector was discussed. The characteristic of nuclear technology and the research in progress were summarized with the suggestion of the possible new application of nuclear power. The current status and future prospect of the CO2 capture and sequestration research was introduced and current research status of that area in Korea was investigated. Preliminary economic feasibility study of MIP(Medical Isotopes Producer), using liquid nuclear fuel to produce medical isotopes of Mo-99 and Sr-89, was performed

  18. Economic analysis of nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The report presents several methods for estimating the power costs of nuclear reactors. When based on a consistent set of economic assumptions, total power costs may be useful in comparing reactor alternatives. The principal items contributing to the total power costs of a nuclear power plant are: (1) capital costs, (2) fuel cycle costs, (3) operation and maintenance costs, and (4) income taxes and fixed charges. There is a large variation in capital costs and fuel expenses among different reactor types. For example, the standard once-through LWR has relatively low capital costs; however, the fuel costs may be very high if U3O8 is expensive. In contrast, the FBR has relatively high capital costs but low fuel expenses. Thus, the distribution of expenses varies significantly between these two reactors. In order to compare power costs, expenses and revenues associated with each reactor may be spread over the lifetime of the plant. A single annual cost, often called a levelized cost, may be obtained by the methods described. Levelized power costs may then be used as a basis for economic comparisons. The paper discusses each of the power cost components. An exact expression for total levelized power costs is derived. Approximate techniques of estimating power costs will be presented

  19. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled ''Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP'' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying rate at RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital. (author)

  20. Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decision making under uncertainty is a difficult task in most areas. Investment decisions for combined heat and power production (CHP) are certainly one of the areas where it is difficult to find an optimal solution since the payback period is several years and parameters change due to different perturbing factors of economic and mostly political nature. CHP is one of the most effective measures for saving primary energy and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of EU directives on the promotion of cogeneration based on useful heat demand in the internal energy market will accelerate CHP installation. The expected number of small CHP installations will be very high in the near future. A quick, reliable and simple tool for economic evaluation of small CHP systems is required. Since evaluation is normally made by sophisticated economic computer models which are rather expensive, a simple point estimate economic model was developed which was later upgraded by risk methodology to give more informative results for better decision making. This paper presents a reliable computer model entitled 'Computer program for economic evaluation analysis of CHP' as a tool for analysis and economic evaluation of small CHP systems with the aim of helping the decision maker. The paper describes two methods for calculation of the sensitivity of the economic results to changes of input parameters and the uncertainty of the results: the classic/static method and the risk method. The computer program uses risk methodology by applying RISK software on an existing conventional economic model. The use of risk methodology for economic evaluation can improve decisions by incorporating all possible information (knowledge), which cannot be done in the conventional economic model due to its limitations. The methodology was tested on the case of a CHP used in a smaller hospital

  1. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between...... the findings of studies that was hard to explain. METHODS: A systematic literature review was carried out following PRISMA reporting principles. Health economic models of the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms published between 2005-2010 were included. Key characteristics were...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...

  2. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  3. Environmental and economic impacts of decision-making at an arable farm: an integrative modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindgren, Urban; Elmquist, Helena

    2005-06-01

    This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper. PMID:16092275

  4. Decision Analysis of Urban Land Intensive Use from the Perspective of Economics%经济学视角下城市土地集约利用的决策分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈银蓉; 梅昀; 孟祥旭; 陈昱

    2013-01-01

    The state of intensive urban land use is a collection of its land parcel use state. Research oft the characteristics and mutual influence of decision subjects in land use decision-making is needed to improve land-use decisions and intensive land use. Here, we analyze land-use decision-making, the behavior of land developers by cost-benefit analysis, changes in the inputs from industrial enterprises by long-term production theory and law of land diminishing return, land supply choices of the local government, land supply strategies for residential and industrial areas, and the effects of intensive land use. We found that to improve the intensity of land use, the decision of land developers is to increase the building density and floor area ratio as much as possible in the range of acceptable technical conditions and the market. As for industrial land, the rise in relative land price means that capital and labor for production will increase. However, according to the law of land diminishing returns, increased investments take the total revenue growth as a precondition. The local government tends to supply more land: for residential and commercial land, it will obtain land revenue at a higher premium by virtue of monopoly market conditions but lower the price of industrial land to attract enterprises. In order to promote land intensive use, local government should standardize land development by restricting planning targets and regulating land use, and raise the intensity of industrial land by setting an investment intensity threshold. Local government should also regulate its decision-making behavior by improving related laws and policies.%城市土地集约利用状态是其宗地利用状态的集合,研究土地利用决策系统中各决策主体的行为特点和相互影响,对于改进土地利用决策,实现土地集约利用具有重要意义.本文通过土地利用决策过程的分析,明确决策主体和决策目的.然后,基于理性人的假设,借

  5. Economic Decisions by Approved Principles: Rules of Thumb as Behavioral Guidelines

    OpenAIRE

    Buhr, Walter; Christiaans, Thomas

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the relevance of the concept of rational behavior in economic theory and suggest, on the basis of modern brain research results, to abstain from this notion and instead to apply behavioral rules of thumb in decision-making, especially if these rules can be derived from rational problem solutions determined by individual economic agents. We give an example for our point of view which refers to a contribution by Baumol and Quandt on the pricing behavior of a monopolistic firm and whi...

  6. Fractional State Space Analysis of Economic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS method and state space portrait (SSP analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

  7. Item Analysis in Introductory Economics Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinari, Frank D.

    1979-01-01

    Computerized analysis of multiple choice test items is explained. Examples of item analysis applications in the introductory economics course are discussed with respect to three objectives: to evaluate learning; to improve test items; and to help improve classroom instruction. Problems, costs and benefits of the procedures are identified. (JMD)

  8. Economic analysis in health care research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizk, Diaa E E

    2008-04-01

    There is contemporary widespread acceptance in the medical community of the need to address economic perspective of healthcare, specifically whether the benefits of a proposed or existing medical intervention are sufficient to justify that particular use of scarce health resources. The use of any scarce resources whether manpower, buildings or equipment has an opportunity cost in terms of the benefits foregone by denying those resources to other competing claims. Health economics emphasizes the need to assess formally the implications of choices over the deployment of resources. A number of economic evaluation techniques such as cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis have thus been developed to aid this formal assessment and to help identify the most efficient allocation of resources. The methodological quality and principles of economic analyses studies recently published in the biomedical literature, however, can be further improved. The most common limitations are in the methodology or presentation of cost, incremental analyses, sensitivity analysis and discounting. The ten methodological principles that should be incorporated in studies addressing economic analyses are highlighted. Understanding the methodology of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis is critical for biomedical researchers, editors, reviewers and readers from developing countries to accurately interpret the results of the growing body of these articles. PMID:19143119

  9. Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

  10. Linguistic Diversity and Its Impact on Economic Policies and Political Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, S.; Gabszewicz, J.; Ginsburgh, V.; Savvateev, A.; Filatov, A.

    2009-01-01

    The paper addresses the issue of linguistic diversity and its impact on economic policy and political decisions. Importance of the topic is illustrated by examination of optimal sets of official languages in the European Union. It is shown that alternative estimation methods of language disenfranchisement alter the order in which the languages enter the list of the official ones. Also, we present an overview of gametheoretic models of language acquisition, where individuals weigh costs and be...

  11. Bayesian Updating in the EEG : Differentiation between Automatic and Controlled Processes of Human Economic Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Hügelschäfer, Sabine

    2011-01-01

    Research has shown that economic decision makers often do not behave according to the prescriptions of rationality, but instead show systematic deviations from rational behavior (e.g., Starmer, 2000). One approach to explain these deviations is taking a dual-process perspective (see Evans, 2008; Sanfey & Chang, 2008; Weber & Johnson, 2009) in which a distinction is made between deliberate, resource-consuming controlled processes and fast, effortless automatic processes. In many cases, deviati...

  12. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim; Napoleon Danbeki Saingbe; Zubairu Ajiya Abdulkadir

    2012-01-01

    The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and cre...

  13. Spend more today: Using behavioural economics to improve retirement expenditure decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Blake, David; Boardman, Tom

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines how behavioural economics can be used to improve the expenditure decisions of retirees. It identifies how accumulated assets can be used optimally throughout retirement to produce life-long income when required, to make provision for contingencies – such as unanticipated spikes in expenditure – and to optimize the size and timing of bequests. We do this using a SPEEDOMETER (or Spending Optimally Throughout Retirement) retirement expenditure plan which employs defaults with...

  14. The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

    2016-04-01

    Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even

  15. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  16. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias eKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  17. Why We Should Use Animals to Study Economic Decision Making – A Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research. PMID:21731558

  18. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments

  20. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  1. Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ericsson, Neil R.; David F. Hendry; Grayham E. Mizon

    1998-01-01

    This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general; and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A sm...

  2. Technocracy and Economic Decision-Making in Southeast Asia: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khoo Boo Teik

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an overview of issues important to studying technocracy and economic decision-making in Southeast Asia. Historically the subject extends from the incorporation of non-communist states of the region into the US-molded post-World War II international order to the East Asian financial crisis of 1997. To Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, advisory and expert missions of the United States, World Bank, and other international agencies bore “state-of-the-art” economic policy-making and development planning that reserved a special, politically immunized role for technocrats. Yet, technocrats occupied a contentious position because of conflicting interests in changing conditions of underdevelopment, late industrialization, trade and investment liberalization, and financial global­ization. As such, the assessment of the relationship between technocracy and economic decision-making in Southeast Asia should consider such opposed expectations as: the claims of technocratic efficacy against claims on social equity; demands of professional efficiency against demands of public accountability; appeals to state priorities against appeals to democracy; advances of national interests against defense of vested interests; promotion of economic targets against the attainment of social objectives; and the autonomy of technocrats against their captivity to patronage.

  3. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. Keywords: agent-based simulation, banker behavior, interbank lending, economic downturn

  4. Analysis Economics of Realizing Mass Customization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jiuhe; XIA Yan; FANG Shufen

    2006-01-01

    This paper breaks through the old study pattern, emphasizing the important of economic analysis and put forward the analytic method. The paper compares mass customization to just-in-time, analyses the two facets which include production and distribution. The production facet is influence of the indirect cost, scale economy, experiences economy and dynamic alliance. The reduction of indirect cost is the innovation, which has special angle comparatively traditional economic analysis. There is gaming between satisfying customer special demand and deciding price. Mass customization emphasizes that customer must achieve to loyalty not only content without increasing extra service charge-faith in company and product. The paper sets forth the economics of scale economy and dynamic alliance to embody the extensive economy. In addition it is another innovation that this paper analyses the defects of mass customization to evaluate the economic risk. Through comparing the traditional production mode, demonstrating the implement feasibility in company. That is mass customization has less economic risk whether or not. So the analysis proposes the evidences of the way of enterprise production.

  5. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  6. Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Whaiduzzaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing (CC has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA. MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios.

  7. 17 CFR 200.23a - Office of Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Office of Economic Analysis... Organization § 200.23a Office of Economic Analysis. The Office of Economic Analysis is responsible for... Office also assists the Commission's enforcement effort by applying economic analysis and...

  8. 16 CFR 1000.28 - Directorate for Economic Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Directorate for Economic Analysis. 1000.28... AND FUNCTIONS § 1000.28 Directorate for Economic Analysis. The Directorate for Economic Analysis, which is managed by the Associate Executive Director for Economic Analysis, is responsible for...

  9. Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities, in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc..

  10. Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marre, Jean-Baptiste; Thébaud, Olivier; Pascoe, Sean; Jennings, Sarah; Boncoeur, Jean; Coglan, Louisa

    2016-08-01

    Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as being useful to support ecosystem management decision-making. However, the extent to which it is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of economic valuation of ecosystem services, in support of coastal and marine management, are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across groups of decision-makers. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use economic valuation. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent's use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other studies on the usefulness and use of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also demonstrate the strength of the survey-based approach developed in this application to examine this issue in a variety of contexts. PMID:27136617

  11. Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marre, Jean-Baptiste; Thébaud, Olivier; Pascoe, Sean; Jennings, Sarah; Boncoeur, Jean; Coglan, Louisa

    2016-08-01

    Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as being useful to support ecosystem management decision-making. However, the extent to which it is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of economic valuation of ecosystem services, in support of coastal and marine management, are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across groups of decision-makers. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use economic valuation. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent's use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other studies on the usefulness and use of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also demonstrate the strength of the survey-based approach developed in this application to examine this issue in a variety of contexts.

  12. The Economic Analysis of Criminal Law

    OpenAIRE

    Joanna Shepherd; Paul H. Rubin

    2013-01-01

    This chapter summarizes the literature on the economic analysis of criminal law. First, it discusses the positive theory of criminal behavior and reviews the empirical evidence in support of the theory. Then, it discusses the normative theory of how public law enforcement should be designed to minimize the social costs of crime.

  13. The Economic Analysis of University Participation Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallis, George

    2015-01-01

    Over the postwar period in most developed countries, the university participation rate has risen steadily to well over 30 percent, although there remain differences between countries. Students from lower income families have lower participation rates than those from higher income families. The article provides an economic analysis of these…

  14. Use of ecosystem services economic valuation for decision making: questioning a literature blindspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurans, Yann; Rankovic, Aleksandar; Billé, Raphaël; Pirard, Romain; Mermet, Laurent

    2013-04-15

    Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (ESV) is often seen as a tool that can potentially enhance our collective choices regarding ecosystem services as it factors in the costs and benefits of their degradation. Yet, to achieve this, the social processes leading to decisions need to use ESV effectively. This makes it necessary to understand if and how ESV is or is not used by decision-makers. However, there appears to be a literature blindspot as to the issue of the Use of Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (UESV). This paper proposes a systematic review on UESV in peer-reviewed scientific literature. It shows that this literature gives little attention to this issue and rarely reports cases where ESV has been put to actual use, even though such use is frequently referred to as founding the goal and justification of ESV. The review identifies three categories of potential UESV: decisive, technical and informative, which are usually mentioned as prospects for the valuations published. Two sets of hypotheses are examined to explain this result: either the use of ESV is a common practice, but is absent from the literature reviewed here; or the use of ESV is effectively rare. These hypotheses are discussed and open up further avenues of research which should make the actual use of ESV their core concern.

  15. An economic analysis of communal goat production

    OpenAIRE

    P.J. Sebei; McCrindle, C. M. E.; Webb, E.C.

    2004-01-01

    The economic impact of different extension messages used was calculated using enterprise budgeting (gross margin analysis). Input data were gleaned from the literature, from participatory appraisals, as well as a field study, spanning 12 months, of small-scalecommunal goat farming systems in Jericho in the Odi District of NorthWest Province. The number of offspring weaned per annum, as a proportion of does owned, was selected as the desired output for analysis. This study has shown that small...

  16. Analysis of a distribution decision algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Hahn, Sung Chu

    1985-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Distributed decision problems arise whenever two or more sensors and their associated computers must work cooperatively to make a decision about a commonly observed event. Typical examples are in target detection and classification. The problem is usually characterized by a limited bandwidth of the communication link between the sensors. This thesis develops and evaluates an algorithm for distributed decision and compares it to a non-...

  17. A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burhanuddin M. A.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

  18. A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, K M; Maier, H R; Colby, C B

    2005-12-01

    The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.

  19. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs.

  20. Behavioral Economics and the Conduct of Benefit-Cost Analysis: Towards Principles and Standards

    OpenAIRE

    Hammitt, James K.; Robinson, Lisa A.

    2010-01-01

    As traditionally conducted, benefit-cost analysis is rooted in neoclassical welfare economics, which assumes that individuals act rationally and are primarily motivated by self-interest, making decisions that maximize their own well-being. Its conduct is now evolving to reflect recent work in behavioral economics, which integrates psychological aspects of decisionmaking. We consider several implications for analyses of social programs. First, benefit-cost analysis often involves valuing nonma...

  1. Fuzzy logic approach to SWOT analysis for economics tasks and example of its computer realization

    OpenAIRE

    Chernov, Vladimir; Oleksandr DOROKHOV; Liudmyla DOROKHOVA

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses the widely used classic method of analysis, forecasting and decision-making in the various economic problems, called SWOT analysis. As known, it is a qualitative comparison of multicriteria degree of Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat for different kinds of risks, forecasting the development in the markets, status and prospects of development of enterprises, regions and economic sectors, territorials etc. It can also be successfully applied to the eva...

  2. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  3. 76 FR 59111 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-23

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  4. 76 FR 9743 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-22

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory...-153), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

  5. 78 FR 10599 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-14

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory...-153), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The...

  6. 75 FR 8922 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-26

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  7. 77 FR 21081 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-09

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of Public Meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  8. 75 FR 49890 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-16

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  9. 77 FR 60965 - Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-05

    ... Economics and Statistics Administration Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee AGENCY: Bureau of Economic Analysis. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the Federal Advisory Committee...), we are announcing a meeting of the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee. The meeting...

  10. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  11. Methodological Aspects of Qualitative-Quantitative Analysis of Decision-Making Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gawlik Remigiusz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at recognizing the possibilities and perspectives of application of qualitative-quantitative research methodology in the field of economics, with a special focus on production engineering management processes. The main goal of the research is to define the methods that would extend the research apparatus of economists and managers by tools that allow the inclusion of qualitative determinants into quantitative analysis. Such approach is justified by qualitative character of many determinants of economic occurrences. At the same time quantitative approach seems to be predominant in production engineering management, although methods of transposition of qualitative decision criteria can be found in literature. Nevertheless, international economics and management could profit from a mixed methodology, incorporating both types of determinants into joint decision-making models. The research methodology consists of literature review and own analysis of applicability of mixed qualitative-quantitative methods for managerial decision-making. The expected outcome of the research is to find which methods should be applied to include qualitative-quantitative analysis into multicriteria decision-making models in the fields of economics, with a special regard to production engineering management.

  12. Using multicriteria decision analysis to support research priority setting in biomedical translational research projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Graaf, Gimon; Postmus, Douwe; Buskens, Erik

    2015-01-01

    Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention) and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker's preferences for certain criteria. PMID:26495288

  13. Economic optimization of decisions with respect to dairy cow health management.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houben, E.H.P.

    1995-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was directed towards decision support in dairy cow health management. Attention was focused on clinical mastitis, in many countries considered to be the most important dairy health problem. First a statistical analysis was carried out to obtain biological and ec

  14. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  15. Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2’s Generalized Linear Mixed Model’s results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women’s endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  16. ENLARGING ON THE USE OF FINANCIAL-ACCOUNTING INFORMATION IN THE ECONOMIC DECISION MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Emilia ŢÎNŢĂ

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The financial statement of a company is affected by its economic resources, by the financial structure, cash,solvency and its ability to adjust to changes within the environment in which it operates. The accounting information onthe economic resources, which the company controls and its ability to modify the resources, is useful in order to predictthe capacity of the company to generate liquid assets and their equivalents in the future.The accounting information regarding the financial structure is useful in order to predict the costs of the futureloans and to predict the way the profit and the treasury flows will be split between interested parties inside thecompany. The information is useful to predict the company success in obtaining new financing.Concretely, the financial activity contributes to run the economic activity from the capital Unit by establishingthe economic decision from the financial point of view and by direct intervention of the financial activity to start and toaccomplish the enterprise system self adjustment within the framework of the effective production process.

  17. Economic Growth And Carbon Emission: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim BAKIRTAS

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between carbon dioxide emission (CO2 and economic growth is one of the crucial topics in environmental economics. This study is aimed to investigatethat problem. In this study, depending on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC, the impact of income in carbon dioxide emission has measured for 34 OECD and5 BRICS countries with using Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. In this regard OECD countries are classified by income groups due to the average per capita income rate ofOECD to solve the homogeneity problem among OECD countries. On the other hand EKC hypothesis analysed by short and long run income elasticity which will be using foran evident that a country reduces CO2 emissions with the income increase in this study. According to the findings of the study, % 36 of the country sample coherent with theEKC hypothesis. The main encouragement for testing this relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission is leading politicians to reconsider the environmental impactswhich are arising from income increase when they are taking a decision to maximizes the economic growth.Keywords: EKC; OECD; Dynamic Panel Data

  18. An Economic Analysis of Ugandan Agricultural Constraints

    OpenAIRE

    Komarek, Adam M.; Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z.

    2006-01-01

    Transaction costs and poor asset endowments appear to be major impediments to small scale agricultural development in Uganda. Reasons for the lack of commercialisation of agriculture, and the barriers to increasing the value of banana crop sales and banana production are the focus of this paper. Using agricultural household economics theory, an empirical analysis based on the Heckman model is unertaken. Data collected through a primary farm survey in three different regions of Uganda form the...

  19. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  20. Mindfulness training increases cooperative decision making in economic exchanges: Evidence from fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirk, Ulrich; Gu, Xiaosi; Sharp, Carla; Hula, Andreas; Fonagy, Peter; Montague, P Read

    2016-09-01

    Emotions have been shown to exert influences on decision making during economic exchanges. Here we investigate the underlying neural mechanisms of a training regimen which is hypothesized to promote emotional awareness, specifically mindfulness training (MT). We test the hypothesis that MT increases cooperative economic decision making using fMRI in a randomized longitudinal design involving 8weeks of either MT or active control training (CT). We find that MT results in an increased willingness to cooperate indexed by higher acceptance rates to unfair monetary offers in the Ultimatum Game. While controlling for acceptance rates of monetary offers between intervention groups, subjects in the MT and CT groups show differential brain activation patterns. Specifically, a subset of more cooperative MT subjects displays increased activation in the septal region, an area linked to social attachment, which may drive the increased willingness to express cooperative behavior in the MT cohort. Furthermore, MT resulted in attenuated activity in anterior insula compared with the CT group in response to unfair monetary offers post-training, which may suggest that MT enables greater ability to effectively regulate the anterior insula and thereby promotes social cooperation. Finally, functional connectivity analyses show a coupling between the septal region and posterior insula in the MT group, suggesting an integration of interoceptive inputs. Together, these results highlight that MT may be employed in contexts where emotional regulation is required to promote social cooperation. PMID:27266443

  1. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

  2. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    CERN Document Server

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  3. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original

  4. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes

  5. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMICS OF QUALITY IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sailaj

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In modern industries, much emphasis is given to quality as it is the most effective tool which can capture, retain and enlarge customer base. The customer satisfaction is the ultimate goal of business and no other strategy can achieve it other than attaining best quality. An improvement in quality enhances customer satisfaction, taper s manufacturing costs and of course in turn, increases productivity. But in business scenario, improving quality should be considered along with the expenses associated with it. The strategy should be to achieve high Quality in a most economic way. So identifying effective methods for the analysis of economics behind quality and reduction of costs associated with achieving quality is a serious potential management problem and should be looked in to and analyzed. Economics of Quality analysis which is also termed as cost of quality or quality cost analysis has emerged as a powerful management tool for assessing the present quality level of the organization and to identify the improvement opportunities and also supports in decision making. This paper presents a study on quality cost analysis of two manufacturing units and tries to analyze the interrelationships between quality cost categories using statistical methods. The secondary data collected from the financial records of two firms under manufacturing sector is used for this analysis. The Pearson product momentum correlation coefficient between different quality cost categories provides insight to the relationships between different quality cost elements and in turn helps management to set action priorities to be addressed to achieve good quality at lower cost. The regression analysis helps the management in estimation or prediction of the unknown value of one variable from the known value of the other variable.

  6. Agriculture sector resource and environmental policy analysis: an economic and biophysical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    House, R; McDowell, H; Peters, M; Heimlich, R

    1999-01-01

    Agricultural pollution of the environment is jointly determined by economic decisions driving land use, production practices, and stochastic biophysical processes associated with agricultural production, land and climate characteristics. It follows that environmental and economic statistics, traditionally collected independently of each other, offer little insight into non-point pollutant loadings. We argue that effective policy development would be facilitated by integrating environmental and economic data gathering, combined with simulation modelling linking economic and biophysical components. Integrated data collection links economics, land use, production methods and environmental loadings. An integrated economic/biophysical modelling framework facilitates policy analysis because monetary incentives to reduce pollution can be evaluated in the context of market costs and returns that influence land use and production activity. This allows prediction of environmental and economic outcomes from alternative policies to solve environmental problems. We highlight steps taken to merge economic and biophysical modelling for policy analysis within the Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture. An example analysis of a policy to reduce agricultural nitrogen pollution is presented, with the economic and environmental results illustrating the value of linked economic and biophysical analysis. PMID:10231835

  7. National Launch System comparative economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prince, A.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

  8. Health Economic Data in Reimbursement of New Medical Technologies: Importance of the Socio-Economic Burden as a Decision-Making Criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskrov, Georgi; Dermendzhiev, Svetlan; Miteva-Katrandzhieva, Tsonka; Stefanov, Rumen

    2016-01-01

    Background: Assessment and appraisal of new medical technologies require a balance between the interests of different stakeholders. Final decision should take into account the societal value of new therapies. Objective: This perspective paper discusses the socio-economic burden of disease as a specific reimbursement decision-making criterion and calls for the inclusion of it as a counterbalance to the cost-effectiveness and budget impact criteria. Results/Conclusions: Socio-economic burden is a decision-making criterion, accounting for diseases, for which the assessed medical technology is indicated. This indicator is usually researched through cost-of-illness studies that systematically quantify the socio-economic burden of diseases on the individual and on the society. This is a very important consideration as it illustrates direct budgetary consequences of diseases in the health system and indirect costs associated with patient or carer productivity losses. By measuring and comparing the socio-economic burden of different diseases to society, health authorities and payers could benefit in optimizing priority setting and resource allocation. New medical technologies, especially innovative therapies, present an excellent case study for the inclusion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making. Assessment and appraisal have been greatly concentrated so far on cost-effectiveness and budget impact, marginalizing all other considerations. In this context, data on disease burden and inclusion of explicit criterion of socio-economic burden in reimbursement decision-making may be highly beneficial. Realizing the magnitude of the lost socio-economic contribution resulting from diseases in question could be a reasonable way for policy makers to accept a higher valuation of innovative therapies.

  9. Combined Economic and Hydrologic Modeling to Support Collaborative Decision Making Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheer, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    For more than a decade, the core concept of the author's efforts in support of collaborative decision making has been a combination of hydrologic simulation and multi-objective optimization. The modeling has generally been used to support collaborative decision making processes. The OASIS model developed by HydroLogics Inc. solves a multi-objective optimization at each time step using a mixed integer linear program (MILP). The MILP can be configured to include any user defined objective, including but not limited too economic objectives. For example, an estimated marginal value for water for crops and M&I use were included in the objective function to drive trades in a model of the lower Rio Grande. The formulation of the MILP, constraints and objectives, in any time step is conditional: it changes based on the value of state variables and dynamic external forcing functions, such as rainfall, hydrology, market prices, arrival of migratory fish, water temperature, etc. It therefore acts as a dynamic short term multi-objective economic optimization for each time step. MILP is capable of solving a general problem that includes a very realistic representation of the physical system characteristics in addition to the normal multi-objective optimization objectives and constraints included in economic models. In all of these models, the short term objective function is a surrogate for achieving long term multi-objective results. The long term performance for any alternative (especially including operating strategies) is evaluated by simulation. An operating rule is the combination of conditions, parameters, constraints and objectives used to determine the formulation of the short term optimization in each time step. Heuristic wrappers for the simulation program have been developed improve the parameters of an operating rule, and are initiating research on a wrapper that will allow us to employ a genetic algorithm to improve the form of the rule (conditions, constraints

  10. Economic Evaluation and Impact Analysis of SMART

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objective of this study is to analyze the economic value and contribution to the national economy of the SMART project. This study tries to evaluate three kinds of values of the project separately; national economy contribution, the financial cost-benefit analysis and intangible social benefit of the project. The research methods are Net Present Valuation (NPT) for the first analysis, Input-Output (IO) model for the second analysis and Contingent Valuation Method(CVM) for the last analysis. This study tries to answer for the following questions: (1) how much does the project affect on Korean national economy in area of construction, electricity generation and export? (2) what is the financial cost - benefit assessment of the SMART project which is of the most interest to the private sector constructing the reactor? (3) how much is the project's intangible social gains in that it brings Korea's scientific development in area of nuclear generation and improves Korea's global standing? Main Results of Research are (1) Domestic Construction and Electricity Generation of the 1st Reactor A. Contribution to the National Economy Production inducing effect by the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor amounts to 1,801 ∼2,059 billion won, value added inducing effect amounts to 789∼919 billion won, and employment inducing effect amounts to 11,015∼12, 856 men. B. Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment Financial cost - benefit of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically non-profitable from the point of view of private companies participating the project, by having economic loss over all scenarios of construction costs. C. Combining Financial Cost-Benefit Assessment and Contribution to the National Economy's Value-Added Combining financial cost - benefit and value added inducing effect of the domestic construction and generation of the 1st reactor turns out to be economically valid from the point of view of

  11. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  12. Hydrogen as alternative clean fuel: Economic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In analogy to biofuel production from biomasses, the electrolytic conversion of other renewable energies into hydrogen as an alternative clean fuel is considered. This solution allows the intermittent renewable energy sources, as photovoltaics and wind energy, to enhance their development and enlarge the role into conventional fuel market. A rough economic analysis of hydrogen production line shows the costs, added by electrolysis and storage stages, can be recovered by properly accounting for social and environmental costs due to whole cycle of conventional fuels, from production to use. So, in a perspective of attaining the economic competitiveness of renewable energy, the hydrogen, arising from intermittent renewable energy sources, will be able to compete in the energy market with conventional fuels, making sure that their substitution will occur in a significant amount and the corresponding environment

  13. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  14. Decision making in Germany: is health economic evaluation as a supporting tool a sleeping beauty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber-Grote, Andreas; Sandmann, Frank Gerd; Zhou, Min; Ten Thoren, Corinna; Schwalm, Anja; Weigel, Carolin; Balg, Christiane; Mensch, Alexander; Mostardt, Sarah; Seidl, Astrid; Lhachimi, Stefan K

    2014-01-01

    For many years, the legal situation within the statutory health insurance (SHI) system in Germany has allowed for health economic evaluations. There are various reasons why health economic evaluations have played virtually no role in decision making until now: to begin with, a method for the evaluation of the relation between benefits and costs which needed to be in accordance with the legal requirements had to be developed, the outcome of which was the efficiency frontier approach. Subsequent health care reforms have led to changing objectives and strategies. Currently, price negotiations of newly launched drugs are based on an early benefit assessment of dossiers submitted by pharmaceutical manufacturers. Other reasons might be the presently very comfortable financial situation of the statutory health insurance system as well as a historically grown societal fear and discomfort towards what is perceived to be a rationing of medicinal products. For the time being, it remains open how long the German health care system can afford to continue neglecting the benefits of health economic evaluations for drug and non-drug interventions, and when it will be time to wake this sleeping beauty. PMID:25444297

  15. THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz TUTAR

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Among the global problems since we met the phenomenon of globalization, the water has also taken its place. Economic analysis of water have become a topic of examination by many economist in recent years. Water is one of the important needs of human life. Water has an important place in respect of its role in maintaining a healty way of life. However, our country’s water resources are getting polluted day by day and the amount of water need the per capita is inceasing fast year by year due to population growth. Water quality can not be observed in Turkey and the necessarydata bank is unable to be formed. Protection of water resources and the evaluation of if in accordance with beneficial use can be only done with an integrated management mechanism. The purpose of this study is to make economic analysis of water located in natural resources. In this context the analysis of water supply and demand, the place of water in the economy, water resources and use of them in Turkey, in the World and EU, finally SWOT analysis of Turkey in terms of water resources were performed.

  16. Nuclear and non-nuclear electricity: decision-making for optimal economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; power system planning - the planning cycle (load-forecasting period; uncertainty; probability and sensitivity analysis in planning); power system reliability; power system economics -alternative technologies (plant mix - nuclear power plants, fossil-fuel power plants; the 'net effective cost' method; electricity systems in developing countries); typical optimization generation computer program. (U.K.)

  17. Introducing Economic Evaluation as a Policy Tool in Korea: Will Decision Makers get Quality Information?: A Critical Review of Published Korean Economic Evaluations

    OpenAIRE

    Kun-Sei Lee; Brouwer, Werner B.F.; Sang-Il Lee; Hye-Won Koo

    2005-01-01

    Interest in the use of economic evaluations in Korea as an aid for healthcare decision makers has been growing rapidly since the financial crisis of the Korean National Health Insurance fund and the separation in 2000 of the roles of prescribing and dispensing drugs. The Korean Health Insurance Review Agency (HIRA) is considering making it mandatory for pharmaceutical companies to submit the results of an economic evaluation when demanding reimbursement of new pharmaceuticals. The usefulness ...

  18. Using decision trees to predict benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesch, Roland; Pehlke, Hendrik; Jerosch, Kerstin; Schröder, Winfried; Schlüter, Michael

    2008-01-01

    In this article a concept is described in order to predict and map the occurrence of benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The approach consists of two work steps: (1) geostatistical analysis of abiotic measurement data and (2) calculation of benthic provinces by means of Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and GIS-techniques. From bottom water measurements on salinity, temperature, silicate and nutrients as well as from punctual data on grain size ranges (0-20, 20-63, 63-2,000 mu) raster maps were calculated by use of geostatistical methods. At first the autocorrelation structure was examined and modelled with help of variogram analysis. The resulting variogram models were then used to calculate raster maps by applying ordinary kriging procedures. After intersecting these raster maps with punctual data on eight benthic communities a decision tree was derived to predict the occurrence of these communities within the study area. Since such a CART tree corresponds to a hierarchically ordered set of decision rules it was applied to the geostatistically estimated raster data to predict benthic habitats within and near the EEZ. PMID:17680336

  19. Economic evaluation of mental health interventions: an introduction to cost-utility analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luyten, Jeroen; Naci, Huseyin; Knapp, Martin

    2016-05-01

    Finite resources need to be allocated over an ever-increasing range of competing health policies and interventions. Economic evaluation has been developed as a methodology to inform decision makers on the efficiency of particular resource allocations. In this paper we summarize cost-utility analysis, one of the most widely-used forms of economic evaluation in healthcare. We discuss its main elements, interpretation, limitations and relevance to the domain of mental health. PMID:27075444

  20. Significant Labor Decisions--An Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polhemus, Graig E.

    1977-01-01

    Major labor cases decided during 1976 did not project a clear or simple path for further Constitutional and statutory interpretation, but the year's labor decisions did reveal a new willingness on the part of the U.S. Supreme Court to depart from earlier views of Constitutional law. (JT)

  1. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in regulatory alternatives analysis: a case study of lead free solder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloy, Timothy F; Sinsheimer, Peter J; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate, and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of Pb-based bar solder and its non-Pb-based alternatives to examine the application of 2 multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. The article develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods offer a means for transparent, objective, and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present.

  2. Economic Evaluation of Computerized Structural Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, P. E.

    1985-01-01

    This completed effort involved a technical and economic study of the capabilities of computer programs in the area of structural analysis. The applicability of the programs to NASA projects and to other users was studied. The applications in other industries was explored including both research and development and applied areas. The costs of several alternative analysis programs were compared. A literature search covered applicable technical literature including journals, trade publications and books. In addition to the literature search, several commercial companies that have developed computerized structural analysis programs were contacted and their technical brochures reviewed. These programs include SDRC I-DEAS, MSC/NASTRAN, SCADA, SUPERSAP, NISA/DISPLAY, STAAD-III, MICAS, GTSTRUDL, and STARS. These programs were briefly reviewed as applicable to NASA projects.

  3. Comparing the sustainability of U.S. electricity options through multi-criteria decision analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sustainable energy decision-making requires comparing energy options across a wide range of economic, environmental, social and technical implications. However, such comparisons based on quantitative data are currently limited at the national level. This is the first comparison of 13 currently operational renewable and non-renewable options for new US electricity generation using multi-criteria decision analysis with quantitative input values (minimum, nominal, and maximum) for 8 sustainability criteria (levelized cost of energy, life cycle greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions, land and water use, accident-related fatalities, jobs, and annual capacity factor) and 10 representative decision-maker preference scenarios. Results across several preference scenarios indicate that biopower and geothermal (flash and binary) currently score highest in sustainability for the US. Other renewable energy technologies generally offer substantial sustainability improvements over fossil fuel or nuclear technologies, and nuclear is preferable to fossil fuels in most scenarios. The relatively low ranking of natural gas combined cycle in most preference scenarios should encourage caution in adopting NGCC as a “bridge” to renewables. Although NGCC ranks high under economic and technical preference scenarios, renewables actually rank higher in both scenarios (hydro – economic; geothermal and biopower – technical). - Highlights: • Compares 13 electricity options across 8 sustainability criteria. • Considers technical, economic, environmental, and social sustainability criteria. • Examines tradeoffs under 10 representative decision-maker preferences. • Includes policy implications for developing new electricity generation capacity in the US. • Biopower and geothermal consistently rank high across several preference scenarios

  4. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  5. Economic analysis of safety risks in construction

    OpenAIRE

    Teresa Bourbon; Fernando Santos; Alfredo Soeiro

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study revolves around the analysis of the safety risks involved with one construction project, and the respective economic effects of risk prevention and safety management. As a result of the co-ordination of systems, and harmonising of work between the Project Leader, Safety Co-ordinator and Contractor, an adequate strategy was developed for the safety of the project Escola de Ciências da Saúde da Universidade do Minho. The risk evaluation is carried out in simulated fo...

  6. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    is examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies......This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work...... that designers in practice do not rely solely on methods to support their decision-making process, but also on the use of relevant design strategies....

  7. Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants: the relevance of multiattribute utility theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives. (U.S.)

  8. Home behavioral economics: Childcare decisions in the United States and Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Katharine F; Hantula, Donald A

    2016-06-01

    This research investigated how a couple decides which parent stays home as a childcare provider by attempting to determine the economic value on maternal care versus paternal care while examining the potential effects of nationality, gender role attitudes, and social support. We collected data from 240 American participants and 250 Norwegian participants who were asked to decide how much a mother needs to earn to allow her husband to stay at home to provide childcare and how much a father needs to earn to allow his wife to stay at home and provide childcare, in addition to items assessing gender role attitudes. No effect of social support was found, but Norwegians were slightly more likely than Americans to place a heavier earning burden on the husband. There were few differences in gender role attitudes by nationality. The impact of public policy and social desirability on the results and childcare decision making are discussed. PMID:26991664

  9. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  10. Introducing economic evaluation as a policy tool in Korea: Will decision makers get quality information? A critical review of published Korean economic evaluations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K.-S. Lee (Kun-Sei); W.B.F. Brouwer (Werner); S.-I. Lee (Sang-Il); H.-W. Koo (Hye-Won)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractInterest in the use of economic evaluations in Korea as an aid for healthcare decision makers has been growing rapidly since the financial crisis of the Korean National Health Insurance fund and the separation in 2000 of the roles of prescribing and dispensing drugs. The Korean Health In

  11. An approach to the economic analysis of water supply projects

    OpenAIRE

    Lovei, Laszlo

    1992-01-01

    Development economists are increasingly concerned about the correct approach to economic analysis of projects. By looking for a compromise between theory (which identifies ideals) and practice (which deals within the bounds of time and resource constraints), Lovei focuses on potential guidelines for economic appraisals of water supply projects. He summarizes theory and the current World Bank guidelines on the economic analysis of water supply projects; reviews the method of economic analysis ...

  12. A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

  13. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ► We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ► Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ► Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ► Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  14. Optimal Decision-Making in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ Model under Restricted Space: A Non-Linear Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pattnaik

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the concept of fuzzy Non-Linear Programming Technique is applied to solve an economic order quantity (EOQ model under restricted space. Since various types of uncertainties and imprecision are inherent in real inventory problems they are classically modeled using the approaches from the probability theory. However, there are uncertainties that cannot be appropriately treated by usual probabilistic models. The questions how to define inventory optimization tasks in such environment how to interpret optimal solutions arise. This paper allows the modification of the Single item EOQ model in presence of fuzzy decision making process where demand is related to the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity produced/Purchased. This paper considers the modification of objective function and storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters. The model is developed for the problem by employing different modeling approaches over an infinite planning horizon. It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered and the demand per unit compares both fuzzy non linear and other models. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and ugh MATLAB (R2009a version software, the two and three dimensional diagrams are represented to the application. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values and to draw managerial insights of the decision problem.

  15. Identifying a preservation zone using multi–criteria decision analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farashi, A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Zoning of a protected area is an approach to partition landscape into various land use units. The management of these landscape units can reduce conflicts caused by human activities. Tandoreh National Park is one of the most biologically diverse, protected areas in Iran. Although the area is generally designed to protect biodiversity, there are many conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human activities. For instance, the area is highly controversial and has been considered as an impediment to local economic development, such as tourism, grazing, road construction, and cultivation. In order to reduce human conflicts with biodiversity conservation in Tandoreh National Park, safe zones need to be established and human activities need to be moved out of the zones. In this study we used a systematic methodology to integrate a participatory process with Geographic Information Systems (GIS using a multi–criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique to guide a zoning scheme for the Tandoreh National Park, Iran. Our results show that the northern and eastern parts of the Tandoreh National Park that were close to rural areas and farmlands returned less desirability for selection as a preservation area. Rocky Mountains were the most important and most destructed areas and abandoned plains were the least important criteria for preservation in the area. Furthermore, the results reveal that the land properties were considered to be important for protection based on the obtaine

  16. Economic analysis of nutrition interventions for chronic disease prevention: methods, research, and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, John B; Coates, Paul M; Russell, Robert M; Dwyer, Johanna T; Schuttinga, James A; Bowman, Barbara A; Peterson, Sarah A

    2011-09-01

    Increased interest in the potential societal benefit of incorporating health economics as a part of clinical translational science, particularly nutrition interventions, led the Office of Dietary Supplements at the National Institutes of Health to sponsor a conference to address key questions about the economic analysis of nutrition interventions to enhance communication among health economic methodologists, researchers, reimbursement policy makers, and regulators. Issues discussed included the state of the science, such as what health economic methods are currently used to judge the burden of illness, interventions, or healthcare policies, and what new research methodologies are available or needed to address knowledge and methodological gaps or barriers. Research applications included existing evidence-based health economic research activities in nutrition that are ongoing or planned at federal agencies. International and US regulatory, policy, and clinical practice perspectives included a discussion of how research results can help regulators and policy makers within government make nutrition policy decisions, and how economics affects clinical guideline development.

  17. Modeling the Economics of Beach Nourishment Decisions in Response to Coastal Erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, M.; Ashton, A. D.; Hoagland, P.; Jin, D.; Kite-Powell, H.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.

    2012-12-01

    Beaches are constantly moving and changing. The dynamic transformations of beaches are mostly the result of the erosion of sand, which can occur through movements alongshore caused by waves, movements off-shore due to storms, or submersion due to sea-level rise. Predicted climate change impacts include potential changes in storminess and accelerated sea-level rise, which will lead to increased coastal erosion. At the same time, the number of people residing in coastal communities is increasing. The risks from eroding beaches (increased coastal flooding, damage to infrastructure, and displaced residents) are therefore increasing in number and scale; and coastal residents are taking actions to protect their homes. One such action is beach nourishment, where sand is added to a resident's property in order to widen the beach. We have developed an economic model of beach nourishment decision-making to investigate the relationship between the optimal volume and timing of beach nourishment and factors such as property value, erosion rate, and initial beach width. In this model, waterfront property owners nourish a beach when the losses in net rental income exceed the costs incurred from nourishing the beach. (Rental income is a function of property value, which in turn depends upon the width of the beach.) It is assumed that erosion and sea-level rise are related. We examine different nourishment scenarios, including one-time nourishment in the first year; constant annual nourishment; and a myopic decision process in which the homeowner nourishes the beach if property losses from erosion over the next five years are expected to exceed the cost of nourishment. One-time nourishment delays property flooding for both constant and accelerating sea level rise; however, this delay is more substantial under constant sea level rise. With continual nourishment, the beach can be maintained under constant sea-level rise, provided that the erosion rate is comparable to the additional

  18. Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a Delphi survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yoel Lubell

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR 1-5%, and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%. Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10-58% than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7-30%. Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60-73%. However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models

  19. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  20. Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment in Canada: insights from an expert panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron; Hoch, Jeffrey; Siebert, Uwe

    2015-02-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), a decision-making tool, has received increasing attention in recent years, notably in the healthcare field. For Canada, it is unclear whether and how MCDA should be incorporated into the existing health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making process. To facilitate debate on improving HTA decision-making in Canada, a workshop was held in conjunction with the 8th World Congress on Health Economics of the International Health Economics Association in Toronto, Canada in July 2011. The objective of the workshop was to discuss the potential benefits and challenges related to the use of MCDA for HTA decision-making in Canada. This paper summarizes and discusses the recommendations of an expert panel convened at the workshop to discuss opportunities and concerns with reference to the implementation of MCDA in Canada.

  1. Empirical analysis between industrial structure and economic growth of china

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚西龙; 尤津; 郝鹏飞

    2008-01-01

    In recent years,the relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth is more and more concerned by scholars. According to the theory of industrial structure and economic development, this article use regression analysis method that estimates the three major industries’ contribute to Chinese economic growth and use cluster analysis methods, then discuss how to optimize the indus-trial structure.

  2. Law and Technology Theory: Bringing in Some Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trosow, Samuel

    2010-01-01

    The author argues economic analysis needs to be explicitly included in an overall theory of law and technology. Differing approaches to the economics of information are considered, and the copyright policy environment of the 1990s is taken as an example of how the lack of substantive economic analysis resulted in poor policy-making.

  3. Economic analysis of the space shuttle system, volume 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    An economic analysis of the space shuttle system is presented. The analysis is based on economic benefits, recurring costs, non-recurring costs, and ecomomic tradeoff functions. The most economic space shuttle configuration is determined on the basis of: (1) objectives of reusable space transportation system, (2) various space transportation systems considered and (3) alternative space shuttle systems.

  4. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Florin POPESCU; Cezar SCARLAT

    2015-01-01

    SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely i...

  5. Multicriteria decision analysis and core values for enhancing vaccine-related decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barocchi, Michèle A; Black, Steve; Rappuoli, Rino

    2016-06-29

    Vaccines have the potential to transform the health of all individuals and to reduce the health inequality between rich and poor countries. However, to achieve these goals, it is no longer sufficient to prioritize vaccine development using cost-effectiveness as the sole indicator. During a symposium entitled "Mission Grand Convergence-The Role of Vaccines," held in Siena, Italy, in July 2015, key stakeholders agreed that the prioritization of vaccine development and deployment must use multicriteria decision-making based on the following core concepts: (i) mortality and severity of the disease, (ii) vaccine safety considerations, and (iii) economic evaluation that captures the full benefits of vaccination. PMID:27358496

  6. The role of formal capital budgeting analysis in corporate investment decision-making: a literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooremans, Catherine (HEC Univ. of Geneva, Geneva (Switzerland))

    2009-07-01

    According to mainstream energy economics, energy-efficiency investment decisions made by businesses are strictly based on capital budgeting analysis. As a result, these investments are not decided upon because they are profitable only in appearance, since several hidden and transaction costs, as well as a high level of risk, lower their profitability below a firm's cost of capital. It is curious that the energy-economics literature hasn't explored important questions discussed for several years by some finance research: do financial factors and capital budgeting tools really determine investment decisions? Does the investment type influence the decision-making process and the final decision? Different streams of literature organizational finance, strategic decision-making, technology investment analysis have discussed these questions to improve our understanding of how capital budgeting systems work and have evolved. Several empirical studies have investigated the role of formal appraisal tools on capital investment decision-making. Their findings converge on the following conclusions: conventional financial analysis tools are widely used, and yet their real role is often secondary in investment decisions; sometimes they are simply used as a communication tool; the strategic character of investments has a heavier decisional weight. However, practices diverge with national cultures. The goal of this paper is to review this literature, in order to escape the fruitless debate on energy-efficiency investments profitability as well as to highlight new ways to consider and, more importantly, to influence - decisions made in this regard. Ultimately, a better knowledge of corporate investment decision-making will enable the design of more effective public policies to promote corporate energy-efficiency investments, since the partial influence of financial factors and the importance of strategic factors in investment decisions entail several practical conclusions

  7. Barriers And Profits Of Distan ce Education In Operations Research Based Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Szapiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distance education and blended learning allow universities to lower costs, have more return on economies of scale, better control educational process and provide higher quality services for students. This process however requires specialized software to be used by a university. The paper tackles issues related with this approach and presents guidelines for construction of a framework for creating web-based education support software in quantitative area – the meta-framework that al lows for a rapid construction of web-based educational decision analysis software. The framework design in paper covers three aspect: (1 information system modeling, (2 decision problem modeling and (3 teaching process modeling. The information system modeling includes system architecture, servers, programming languages and technical design. The decision problem modeling prov ides means to present an abstract decision problem (and more generally - a problem where quantitative methods can be used and to model interaction between software and decision maker (i.e. a student learning a decision algorithm. Teaching process modeling includes support for linear teaching algorithm in the decision making process, further this can be extended into non-linear and hybrid teaching algorithms. As a proof of concept a working framework prototype named Combine! will be presented. The software’s usefulness was evaluated through a survey carried out on 234 students at Warsaw School of Economics.

  8. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  9. Rural tourism spatial distribution based on multi-criteria decision analysis and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongxian; Yang, Qingsheng

    2008-10-01

    To study spatial distribution of rural tourism can provide scientific decision basis for developing rural economics. Traditional ways of tourism spatial distribution have some limitations in quantifying priority locations of tourism development on small units. They can only produce the overall tourism distribution locations and whether locations are suitable to tourism development simply while the tourism develop ranking with different decision objectives should be considered. This paper presents a way to find ranking of location of rural tourism development in spatial by integrating multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geography information system (GIS). In order to develop country economics with inconvenient transportation, undeveloped economy and better tourism resource, these locations should be firstly develop rural tourism. Based on this objective, the tourism develop priority utility of each town is calculated with MCDA and GIS. Towns which should be first develop rural tourism can be selected with higher tourism develop priority utility. The method is used to find ranking of location of rural tourism in Ningbo City successfully. The result shows that MCDA is an effective way for distribution rural tourism in spatial based on special decision objectives and rural tourism can promote economic development.

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    infrastructure project is for this reason required. An appropriate ex-ante evaluation method for such projects can be based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) (Tsamboulas, 2007. Vreeker et al. 2002), which in most cases can be combined with a CBA (Leleur, 2000). Scanning the literature (Belton...

  11. A Multidisciplinary-economic Framework of Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keizer, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    Human motivation offers energy, and circumstances offer possibilities. Only in combination does human motivation and circumstance yield action. Over time, desires and opportunities to satisfy them closely interact with one another. Orthodox economics analyzes economic motivation in interaction with

  12. Basic relationships for LTA economic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1975-01-01

    Operating costs based on data of actual and proposed airships for conventional lighter than air craft (LTA) are presented. An economic comparison of LTA with the B-47F is included, and possible LTA economic trends are discussed.

  13. A Readability Analysis of Selected Introductory Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, Daniel J.; Thompson, G. Rodney

    1981-01-01

    To aid secondary school and college level economics teachers as they select textbooks for introductory economics courses, this article recounts how teachers can use the Flesch Reading Ease Test to measure readability. Data are presented on application of the Flesch Reading Ease Test to 15 introductory economics textbooks. (Author/DB)

  14. Applying Economic Principles to Outcomes Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Shauver, Melissa J.; Chung, Kevin C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an introduction to economic outcomes for the plastic surgeon investigator. The types of economic outcomes are introduced and the matter of perspective is discussed. Examples from the plastic surgery literature are presented. The current and future importance of economic outcome measures is emphasized.

  15. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

  16. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  17. Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghassan F. Issa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing

  18. Texting while driving as impulsive choice: A behavioral economic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Russo, Christopher T; Wirth, Oliver

    2015-10-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine the utility of a behavioral economic analysis to investigate the role of delay discounting in texting while driving. A sample of 147 college students completed a survey to assess how frequently they send and read text messages while driving. Based on this information, students were assigned to one of two groups: 19 students who frequently text while driving and 19 matched-control students who infrequently text while driving but were similar in gender, age, years of education, and years driving. The groups were compared on the extent to which they discounted, or devalued, delayed hypothetical monetary rewards using a delay-discounting task. In this task, students made repeated choices between $1000 available after a delay (ranging from 1 week to 10 years) and an equal or lesser amount of money available immediately. The results show that the students who frequently text while driving discounted delayed rewards at a greater rate than the matched control students. The study supports the conclusions that texting while driving is fundamentally an impulsive choice made by drivers, and that a behavioral economic approach may be a useful research tool for investigating the decision-making processes underlying risky behaviors. PMID:26280804

  19. Evaluating Biosurveillance System Components using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Generous, Eric Nicholas; Deshpande, Alina; Brown, Mac; Castro, Lauren; Margevicius, Kristen; Daniel, William Brent; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten

    2013-01-01

    Objective The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) has traditionally been limited to the field of operations research, however many of the tools and methods developed for MCDA can also be applied to biosurveillance. Our project demonstrates the utility of MCDA for this purpose by applying it to the evaluation of data streams for use in an integrated, global biosurveillance system. Introduction The evaluation of biosurveillance system components is a complex, multi-objective decision...

  20. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  1. Assessment of validation of health-economics decision models in intervention studies of seasonal influenza and breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Boer, P.T.; Frederix, G.W.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.F.; Vemer, P.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: We aimed to review recently published health-economic (HE) decision models to assess the reporting of validation efforts. An infectious disease (seasonal influenza, SI) and a chronic disease (breast cancer, BC) were used as examples, giving a preliminary insight in the reporting of valid

  2. Supreme Court Justices’ Economic Behaviour: A Multilevel Model Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Skiple, Jon Kåre; Grendstad, Gunnar; Shaffer, William R. ; Waltenburg, Eric N.

    2016-01-01

    Supreme Court justices are overlooked, but important, national policy-making players who render final and consequential decisions in cases on economic conflicts. The research question asks what forces explain the decisional behaviour of Supreme Court justices in economic rights cases between a private and a public party. Theoretically, the decisional behaviour of an individual justice is a function of his or her notion as to what makes ‘good’ law, pursued in a cultural-collegial setting that ...

  3. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jit, Mark; Levin, Carol; Brisson, Marc; Levin, Ann; Resch, Stephen; Berkhof, Johannes; Kim, Jane; Hutubessy, Raymond

    2013-01-30

    Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

  4. Economic analysis of motor transport service efficiency on lease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.V. Klymenko

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In a dynamic economic environment of motor companies operation the development of organizational and methodological positions of economic analysis is required. It is economic analysis that allows us not only to determine the state of economic phenomenon, motor transport services in particular, but also to establish its cause and effect. The article suggests the methodology of economic analysis of motor transport services that includes three methodological components: 1 evaluation of the vehicle use effectiveness; 2 evaluation of transport services effectiveness; 3 evaluation of the vehicle leasing agreement effectiveness. The introduction of this technique in the studied companies revealed potential for raising efficiency.

  5. Factors influencing first childbearing timing decisions among men: Path analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kariman, Nourossadat; Amerian, Maliheh; Jannati, Padideh; Salmani, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    Background: Factors that influence men’s childbearing intentions have been relatively unexplored in the literature. Objective: This study aimed to determine the influencing factors about the first childbearing timing decisions of men. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 300 men who were referred to private and governmental healthcare centers in Shahrood, Iran were randomly recruited from April to September 2014. Data were collected using a demographic questionnaire, the Quality of Life Questionnaire; ENRICH Marital Satisfaction Questionnaire, Synder’s Hope Scale, and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support. Results: After removing the statistically insignificant paths, men’s age at marriage had the highest direct effect (β=0.86) on their first childbearing decision. Marital satisfaction (β=-0.09), social support (β=0.06), economic status (β=0.06), and quality of life (β=-0.08) were other effective factors on men’s first childbearing decisions. Moreover, marital satisfaction and social support had significant indirect effects on men’s childbearing decisions (β=-0.04 and -0.01, respectively). Conclusion: Many factors, including personal factors (age at marriage and quality of life), family factors (marital satisfaction), and social factors (social support), can affect men’s decision to have a child. Policymakers are hence required to develop strategies to promote the socioeconomic and family conditions of the couples and to encourage them to have as many children as they desire at an appropriate time. PMID:27738661

  6. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabrikant, J.I.; Hilberg, A.W.

    1982-02-01

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine.

  7. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reviews certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and raidation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine

  8. Temptation in economic decision making: effects of immediate reward and reward-cues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Woelbert E

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Eva Woelbert, Rainer Goebel Department of Cognitive Neuroscience, Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands Abstract: Immediate exposure to reward or reward-predicting stimuli (cues influences behavior. For example, chips placed right in front of us are likely to get eaten even if we wish to lose weight or don't actually like chips so much. In this paper we review evidence that shows that immediate exposure to reward and the presence of reward-cues can change economic behavior across various decision domains. Reward cues lead to less patient intertemporal choice, seem to increase risk aversion, and bias consumer choice. This may explain various, at first glance very different, behavioral phenomena, such as dynamic inconsistency, the certainty effect, and the endowment effect. We suggest that immediacy in time, certainty, and physical possession all create immediacy to a rewarding outcome that might bias choice in a similar way as other reward-predicting stimuli. Keywords: immediacy, certainty, proximity, valuation, choice, Pavlovian cues

  9. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  10. Decisiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Junichiro Ishida

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates how the presence of strong leadership influences an organization's ability to acquire and process information. The key concept is the leader's decisiveness. A decisive leader can make a bold move in response to a large change in the underlying landscape, whereas an indecisive leader biases her position excessively towards the status quo. An organization led by an indecisive leader needs to accumulate unrealistically strong evidence before it changes the course of actio...

  11. Economic Analysis of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd Stocks

    OpenAIRE

    Fryš, Filip

    2013-01-01

    The bachelor thesis “Economic Analysis of Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Stocks” focuses on fundamental economic analysis and its application on selected Korean company Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. The thesis is divided into two main parts, literature review and practical part. The literature review consists of principles and methods of developing the theory of fundamental economic analysis. The practical part consists of practical application of the theoretical part on the company Samsung El...

  12. Economic Multipliers and Mega-Event Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Victor Matheson

    2004-01-01

    Critics of economic impact studies that purport to show that mega-events such as the Olympics bring large benefits to the communities “lucky” enough to host them frequently cite the use of inappropriate multipliers as a primary reason why these impact studies overstate the true economic gains to the hosts of these events. This brief paper shows in a numerical example how mega-events may lead to inflated multipliers and exaggerated claims of economic benefits.

  13. PIEteR: a field specific bio-economic production model for decision support in sugar beet growing.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, A.B.

    1996-01-01

    To support decisions in sugar beet growing, a model, PIEteR, was developed. It simulates growth and production of the crop in a field specific way, making a tailor-made approach in decision taking possible.PIEteR is based on causal regression analysis of Dutch data of mostly experimental sugar beet

  14. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

  15. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS: This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  16. Category theoretic analysis of single-photon decision maker

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Makoto Naruse Song-Ju; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Hori, Hirokazu

    2016-01-01

    Decision making is a vital function in the era of artificial intelligence; however, its physical realizations and their theoretical fundamentals are not yet known. In our former study [Sci. Rep. 5, 513253 (2015)], we demonstrated that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. The multi-armed bandit problem was successfully solved using the dual probabilistic and particle attributes of single photons. Herein, we present the category theoretic foundation of the single-photon-based decision making, including quantitative analysis that agrees well with the experimental results. The category theoretic model unveils complex interdependencies of the entities of the subject matter in the most simplified manner, including a dynamically changing environment. In particular, the octahedral structure in triangulated categories provides a clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the single-photon decision maker. This is the first demonstration of a category the...

  17. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.

  18. THE SYNTHETIC ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES THROUGH THE REFLECTION OF VALUE INDICATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Căruntu Constantin

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The central objective of the article concerned showing in a synthetic manner the main economic-financial indicators in which are reflected the value indicators that characterize the activity of production and marketing. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making it appeal to more deterministic models to analyze the relationship between various indicators characterizing value production and marketing activities. Information obtained and circulated in connection with the exercise of the company's financial function takes the form of indicators, they have become an indispensable business tool for financial and performance of the decision making microeconomic default. Therefore in designing and conducting the financial microeconomic process a special emphasis is placed precisely on the indicator system, built and used for this purpose, as well as practical ways to use them, particularly targeting the control of the process. The purpose of this article is to present the main economic indicators and financial indicators in which are reflected value indicators that characterize the production and marketing activities. Financial and economic analysis of a trader on the value indicators will always follow these indicators, will determine the factors leading to changes in their value, making an appeal to more deterministic models, to the analysis of the relationship between various value indicators characterizing production and marketing activities. The importance of this article is that it shows how the reflection of value indicators in the economic - financial performances of the company, from which we obtain information essential to economic and financial analysis and diagnosis. In this article we have studied many indicators involved not only in the company's financial activity, but also in its economic activity that

  19. Thermo-economic and thermodynamic analysis and optimization of a two-stage irreversible heat pump

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Thermodynamic modeling of a two-stage irreversible heat pump is performed. • The latter is achieved using NSGA algorithm and thermodynamic analysis. • 3 answers given by the decision-making methods selected. - Abstract: This research study mainly deals with a comprehensive thermodynamic modeling and thermo-economic optimization of an irreversible absorption heat pump. For the optimization goal, various objective functions are considered comprising the specific heating load, coefficient of performance (COP) and the thermo-economic benchmark (F). In order to specify the optimum design variables, non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA) is applied satisfying some restrictions. In this optimization study, all three objective functions (e.g. COP, F and specific heating load) are maximized. In addition, decision making is carried out using three well-suited approaches namely LINAMP and TOPSIS and FUZZY. Finally, sensitivity analysis and error analysis are conducted in order to improve understanding of the system performance

  20. Economic analysis of aeronautical research and technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gellman, A. J.

    1982-01-01

    The appropriateness of government intervention in the civilian market for aeronautics research and technology (R&T) is examined. The economic rationale for government intervention is examined. The conclusion is that the institutional role played by NASA in civilian aeronautics R&T markets is economically justified.

  1. Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

  2. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...... not have unlimited economic resources. Thus it is necessary to prioritise between the many projects and initiatives which are being discussed in the public sector. In order to conduct such a comprehensive prioritisation (across different sectors or within the same sector) it is a precondition...... is one of the most basic and tangible contributions to the planning and decision process within the transport sector when an initiative’s advantages and disadvantages are to be evaluated. The appraisal can be used both for political decision making as well as internally in organisations with planning...

  3. Decision Aid for Planning Local Energy Systems : Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Catrinu, Maria

    2006-01-01

    Planning is what sustains an energy system. It is a process of analysis and ongoing decision making about what resources and energy technologies to use when supplying energy to society. This research focuses on integrated energy systems, i.e. systems that are comprised of several energy carriers – electricity, gas, hot water - and energy distribution networks. The planning of these kinds of systems is a complex process, influenced by many factors, among which the most important are the availa...

  4. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  5. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied.

  6. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  7. California solar energy study: decision-analysis panel report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Margolin, J.B.; Misch, M.R.

    1979-09-01

    In order to investigate motivations behind an individual's decision to purchase or not to purchase a solar energy system for a home, the California Energy Commission initiated a comprehensive survey program to analyze, in some depth, attitudes toward solar energy use. As part of that program, the CEC contracted for a series of panels comprised of homogenous groups of individuals who were not solar adopters, to probe for underlying attitudes about solar and, through the group dynamics process, elicit information which generally cannot be obtained using a standard questionnaire. The results shed additional light on consumer perceptions about the energy situation, the solar industry, economics, government's role and acceptance of the technology which, in turn, affect the individual's decision to adopt or not to adopt a solar energy device.

  8. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  9. 考虑光伏余电上网的微网出力决策分析及经济效益评估%Decision Analysis and Economic Benefit Evaluation of Microgrid Power Output Considering Surplus Photovoltaic Power Selling to Grid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    肖浩; 裴玮; 孔力; 齐智平; 欧阳红; 沐连顺

    2014-01-01

    分布式光伏余电上网政策性补贴给微网的优化运行带来了新的机遇与挑战。以微网运行的净收益最大化为目标,分析了光伏余电上网补贴对于微网出力决策的影响,建立了考虑光伏余电上网的微网系统综合决策调度模型。采用序列二次规划(SQP)算法进行求解,以实际微网系统为例,对比分析了含光伏的微网分别接入居民区、商业区、工业区等不同场景下的出力及经济效益的优劣,并评估了光伏容量及上网电价对收益和成本的影响。%Surplus distributed photovoltaic (PV) power sold to the grid with a new compensation price brings opportunities and challenges for optimal microgrid operation.This paper aims at maximizing the net operating earnings of a microgrid.Firstly, the impact of PV compensation price on the operation of microgrid is analyzed,and a decision-making scheduling model considering the subsidies of PV surplus power is established.Then the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm is utilized to solve the established model.Finally,some case studies are done based on the real data from an actual microgrid system,the differences of microgrid economic benefit with the gird accessed to residential,commercial and industrial areas are compared respectively.The sensitivity analysis is also performed to study the impact of PV capacity and on-grid price on the economic benefits of a microgrid.

  10. Neural mechanisms underlying the impact of daylong cognitive work on economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blain, Bastien; Hollard, Guillaume; Pessiglione, Mathias

    2016-06-21

    The ability to exert self-control is key to social insertion and professional success. An influential literature in psychology has developed the theory that self-control relies on a limited common resource, so that fatigue effects might carry over from one task to the next. However, the biological nature of the putative limited resource and the existence of carry-over effects have been matters of considerable controversy. Here, we targeted the activity of the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) as a common substrate for cognitive control, and we prolonged the time scale of fatigue induction by an order of magnitude. Participants performed executive control tasks known to recruit the LPFC (working memory and task-switching) over more than 6 h (an approximate workday). Fatigue effects were probed regularly by measuring impulsivity in intertemporal choices, i.e., the propensity to favor immediate rewards, which has been found to increase under LPFC inhibition. Behavioral data showed that choice impulsivity increased in a group of participants who performed hard versions of executive tasks but not in control groups who performed easy versions or enjoyed some leisure time. Functional MRI data acquired at the start, middle, and end of the day confirmed that enhancement of choice impulsivity was related to a specific decrease in the activity of an LPFC region (in the left middle frontal gyrus) that was recruited by both executive and choice tasks. Our findings demonstrate a concept of focused neural fatigue that might be naturally induced in real-life situations and have important repercussions on economic decisions. PMID:27274075

  11. Neural mechanisms underlying the impact of daylong cognitive work on economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blain, Bastien; Hollard, Guillaume; Pessiglione, Mathias

    2016-06-21

    The ability to exert self-control is key to social insertion and professional success. An influential literature in psychology has developed the theory that self-control relies on a limited common resource, so that fatigue effects might carry over from one task to the next. However, the biological nature of the putative limited resource and the existence of carry-over effects have been matters of considerable controversy. Here, we targeted the activity of the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) as a common substrate for cognitive control, and we prolonged the time scale of fatigue induction by an order of magnitude. Participants performed executive control tasks known to recruit the LPFC (working memory and task-switching) over more than 6 h (an approximate workday). Fatigue effects were probed regularly by measuring impulsivity in intertemporal choices, i.e., the propensity to favor immediate rewards, which has been found to increase under LPFC inhibition. Behavioral data showed that choice impulsivity increased in a group of participants who performed hard versions of executive tasks but not in control groups who performed easy versions or enjoyed some leisure time. Functional MRI data acquired at the start, middle, and end of the day confirmed that enhancement of choice impulsivity was related to a specific decrease in the activity of an LPFC region (in the left middle frontal gyrus) that was recruited by both executive and choice tasks. Our findings demonstrate a concept of focused neural fatigue that might be naturally induced in real-life situations and have important repercussions on economic decisions.

  12. 卫生经济决策模型的应用%APPLICATION OF HEALTH ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYTICAL MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨淑娟; 温圆圆; 邵英; 牛谨; 杨春霞

    2011-01-01

    Health economic decision analytical model (Markov model) has been widely used in the evaluation of the costeffective. cost-benefit and cost-utility of clinical trails. In order to establish the health economic decision analytical model, we have to determine some parameters and the basic situation of diseases as follows : the Markov chain of the development states of the diseases; the intervention of clinical trail, participants and main outcomes; the initial probability, transition probability and dead probability; the health utilities and related direct cost, indirect cost and invisible cost of treating diseases; the ranges of varies to perform sensitivity analysis. The related life expectancy and cost of treatment, effective, benefit, and utility cost caculated by the parameters above. Therefore, we could establish the long-term effect of clinical trails by results of the shortterm clinical trails to provide related reference for decision makers. Also, we could predict the long-term changes of morbidity and mortality of diseases so that to provide scientific basis for formulating intervention for diseases by Markov model. Finally,the model could forecast the natural history of disease to help the research of the diseases. Markov model has an important role in the economic evaluacion of the intervention, and the estimation of morbidity of diseases.%卫生经济决策模型(马尔可夫模型)已被广泛用于对临床试验的成本-效果,成本-效益,及成本-效用中的评价.建立此模型需要确定以下的参数和疾病的基本情况:疾病的演变状态马尔可夫链;临床试验的干预措施,干预人群和干预结果;疾病的初始概率,转移概率和死亡概率;健康效用值和治疗疾病的相关直接成本,间接成本和无形成本;需要做敏感度分析各值的变化范围.通过相关参数确定建立马尔可夫模型计算出相关期望寿命年和成本,而测算出相关效果,效益和效用值,最终对短期的

  13. Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

  14. Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

  15. Child Custody Decisions: Content Analysis of a Judicial Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Settle, Shirley A; Lowery, Carol R.

    1982-01-01

    Surveyed judges and trial commissioners (N=80) regarding child custody decisions in divorce. The content analysis described the responents' comments which clarified their reasons for attaching greater or lesser importance to a particular consideration or the method using in assessing a particular consideration during a court proceeding. (JAC)

  16. Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Héctor Salgado-Banda

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes a new variable based on patent data to proxy for productive entrepreneurship. Data on self-employment is used as an alternative proxy. In particular, the paper studies the impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth by using these two measures. The study considers 22 OECD countries and finds a positive relationship between the proposed measure of productive entrepreneurship — degree of innovativeness of different nations — and economic growth, while the alternative measu...

  17. Economic Analysis of Investment in Nuclear Weapons

    OpenAIRE

    Martínková, Hana

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear weapons are a rather marginal issue in economics as opposed to the political realm where it is an ever-present topic concerning global security. This thesis argues that economics can make a valuable contribution to the nuclear weapons debate in several ways and aims to present those in a comprehensive manner. First, a cost-benefit approach is employed to show that costs and benefits go beyond counting dollars directly spent on nuclear arsenals. Second, market investment in nuclear wea...

  18. Integrated Approach To The Analysis Of The Quality Of Socio-Economic Regional Development Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Michailovich Kachalov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Prospects of the methods of the analysis and improvement of quality of governance the socio-economic systems application, based conceptual provisions of the system theory of economics, multilevel stratification of the economic space and the operational economical risk management theory are considered. For mesoeconomics, the types of system resources of the economy are defined. Also, it is analyses the influence on the quality of governance socio-economic region development the disparity of different types of system economical resources. Potential possibilities of the improvement of quality of governance due to thinner stratification of economical space and improvement the interaction parameters of the main actors of regional economic space are revealed. Leaning on the operational theory of risk management, ways of justification of administrative, strategic decisions by identification of the relevant economic risk factors and on the basis of received information development the program of anti-risk measures are offered. The methodical solutions promoting successful introduction of considered tools in practice of regional government are proposed.

  19. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C;

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  20. Decision Analysis For Nuclear Fuel Cycle Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prime objective in this talk is to explore the impact of widely different (or hypothetical) fuel cycle requirement rather than to attempt to predict a probable scenario. In the course of preparation of this talk, it was realized that, despite the very speculative nature of this kind of endeavor, studies like these are considered essential to the long-range planning needs of the national nuclear power industry, utilities and those providing supporting services, even though the current presentation are extremely primitive in that purpose. A nuclear electricity utility tries to reduce fuel cycle costs. But the problems have to be approached with a long-term perspective, and the logical conclusion is that utility has to make technical progress. As nuclear generation gradually become great, supplies of the fuel cycle services are responsible for the R and D about the nuclear fuel cycle services which is useful to implement the technical choices they propose. Then it is for the utility to choose according to his knowledge, if necessary by carrying out additional research. But only the utility acquires real operating experience and prototype reactor or laboratory tests offer limited knowledge quantities. One way to ensure a good guarantee of supply is, obviously, to make the order far enough ahead of time to have a stock. But, on the other hand, stocks are expensive and should be kept to a strict minimum. Therefore, a detailed analysis of uncertainties is required, as well as an effort to optimize the handling of the overall problem. As mentioned earlier, in recent years, specifically the right way to handle the back-end of the fuel cycle has been always hotly contested and ultimately it was a question of reprocessing or direct disposal of spent fuel elements. Direct disposal of spent fuel is, at present, the only possibility of spent fuel disposal option available to the Korean utility. Korea, having virtually no indigenous uranium resources, can hardly afford to

  1. How do economic evaluations inform health policy decisions for treatment and prevention in Canada and the United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husereau, Don; Culyer, Anthony J; Neumann, Peter; Jacobs, Philip

    2015-06-01

    Canadian and US health systems have often been characterized as having vastly different approaches to the financing and delivery of healthcare, with Canada portrayed as more reliant on rationing based on costs. In this article, we examine the similarities and differences between the two countries, the evolution and current role of health economic evaluation, and the roles played by health economists. We suggest both countries have similarly used economic evaluation to a limited extent for drug and immunization decisions, with variability in use more of a reflection of the incompleteness of both systems and their inherent institutional barriers rather than political ideology.

  2. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.

  3. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  4. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  5. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALFALFA INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

    OpenAIRE

    Ward, Clement E.; Dowdy, Alan K.; Berberet, Richard C.; Stritzke, Jimmie F.

    1990-01-01

    Integrated pest management (IMP) initially focused on insect pest control. More recently, IPM encompasses a broader concept of management, one which crosses several disciplinary boundaries. This article reports results of research dealing with four integrated management decisions for alfalfa (cultivar selection, inset control, weed control, and end-of-season harvest options.

  6. ANALYSIS ON THE ONGOING CRISIS. HISTORICAL ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE MOTIVATIONS (PART 1)

    OpenAIRE

    Adalberto RANGONE

    2013-01-01

    If politicians and economists who have so much lavished to “open” China to the Western Area should only had paid more attention to the historical and economic analysis brought to completion by scholars such as Carlo Maria Cipolla, Fernand Braudel, Immanuel Wallerstein and others, most likely they would have used more caution when making their decisions, and the crisis would have been strongly reduced. Hereby we intend to clear the reason for these beliefs. By a historical way of approach, we ...

  7. ANALYSIS ON THE ONGOING CRISIS. HISTORICAL ECONOMIC, FINANCIAL AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE MOTIVATIONS (PART 2)

    OpenAIRE

    Adalberto RANGONE

    2013-01-01

    If politicians and economists who have so much lavished to “open” China to the Western Area should only had paid more attention to the historical and economic analysis brought to completion by scholars such as Carlo Maria Cipolla, Fernand Braudel, Immanuel Wallerstein and others, most likely they would have used more caution when making their decisions, and the crisis would have been strongly reduced. Hereby we intend to clear the reason for these beliefs. By a historical way of approach, we ...

  8. Migration, education and employment: socio-cultural factors in shaping individual decisions and economic outcomes in Orkney and Shetland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosie Alexander

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Migration is a common feature of island experiences, with young people especially likely to migrate to mainland communities for education and employment opportunities. Within the British island communities of Orkney and Shetland, concern about youth migration is clear. However conceptualising migration as simply an economic decision based on accessing ‘better’ opportunities elsewhere risks overlooking the significant social and cultural influence in the career and migration decisions of young people. This paper presents the results of the first stage of a research project into the experiences of higher education students from Orkney and Shetland. The project involved interviewing twenty three students about their higher education choices, and their plans for the future. The results demonstrate the importance of social and cultural influences in students’ decision making. This paper also discusses the role of the island ‘habitus’ in students’ narratives of their journeys, drawing particularly from Bourdieu’s concept of habitus.

  9. Economic risk analysis and critical comparison of optimal biorefinery concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Posada, John A.; Gernaey, Krist;

    2016-01-01

    value-added chemicals (diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene), provides an improved resilience and robustness against market price fluctuations by reducing economic loss by 140 MM$/a (17% IRR); (iii) the economic analysis favors biochemical conversion technologies for a small production/processing capacity...... recommend that a comprehensive economic risk analysis, using for example the MonteCarlo technique, should be an integral part of the conceptual design, development, and optimization of biorefineries to help improve their economic robustness in view of the competitive market forchemicals and fuels....

  10. Decision-making for south Florida water resources: ecosystem service valuation, hydro-economic optimization, and conflict resolution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukop, M. C.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water, sustainability, and climate issues faced by South Florida are complex and pressing. There are multiple competing water demands, vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR), and exposure to climate variability that expose the region to a unique severity and diversity of challenges. This project is investigating strategies for the optimization of water use over a 50-year time horizon. The basis for optimization is hydro-economic and seeks to incorporate the value of ecosystem services - especially fisheries and carbon dynamics - in south Florida, along with more traditional agricultural, industrial, and urban economic drivers. Behavioral aspects of water management and land use planning decision-making under different potential future scenarios are also being studied. In particular, how individuals' perceptions of risks to the water supply differ, and how these differences influence their decisions when faced with an uncertain future, such as the one faced by south Floridians due to uncertainty about sea level rise. Experiments will determine how information type and uncertainty levels impact decisions made by individuals and stakeholder groups. The results of the experiments will be used to devise more effective decision-making forums that foster more widespread support of regional water management plans.

  11. Economic analysis of residential solar water heaters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlock, J.; Overton, R.

    1980-09-01

    A residential solar water heater, cost and performance information, and monthly costs and savings of the typical system are discussed. Economic evaluations of solar water heaters are presented in increasingly complex levels of detail. Utilizing a typical system, the effective interest rate that the purchaser of a system would receive on money invested is shown for all regions of the country. The importance of numerous variables that can make a significant difference on the economics of the system is described. Methods for calculating the payback period for any nontypical solar water heater are described. This calculated payback period is shown to be related to the effective interest rate that the purchaser of the system would receive for a typical set of economic conditions. A method is presented to calculate the effective interest rate that the solar system can provide.

  12. Managing wetlands: an ecological economic analysis of the Hong Kong Wetland Park

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of whether the Hong Kong government made a rational economic decision when it decided to set aside land to develop a Wetland Park,or whether it should have used the land for alternative commercial developments.Different analytical methods are used to estimate the economic value of the environmental benefits of the Wetland Park:the Value Transfer Method is used to estimate the economic value of the ecological services provided by the Park,the Direct Market Price analysis for the economic" value of the goods purchased in the Wetland Park,the Hedonic Housing Price Analysis jbr the value of the Park to those residing in its proximity,the Travel Cost and Contingent Valuation Method for the value of the Park to the visitors,and the Contingent Valuation for the Passive (Nonuse) Values of the Park.These benefits are compared to the opportunity cost of the land and the cost of running the Wetland Park.The article concludes that if a rate of 5% or less is used to discount future costs and benefits,we would find that the government's decision to set aside land for a Wetland Park was economically sound,while using a discount rate of 6% or more shows that it was not.

  13. Economic analysis of animal disease outbreaks--BSE and Bluetongue disease as examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gethmann, Jörn; Probst, Carolina; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Conraths, Franz Josef

    2015-01-01

    Although there is a long tradition of research on animal disease control, economic evaluation of control measures is rather limited in veterinary medicine. This may, on the one hand, be due to the different types of costs and refunds and the different people and organizations bearing them, such as animal holders, county, region, state or European Union, but it may also be due to the fact that economic analyses are both complex and time consuming. Only recently attention has turned towards economic analysis in animal disease control. Examples include situations, when decisions between different control measures must be taken, especially if alternatives to culling or compulsory vaccination are under discussion. To determine an optimal combination of control measures (strategy), a cost-benefit analysis should be performed. It is not necessary to take decisions only based on the financial impact, but it becomes possible to take economic aspects into account. To this end, the costs caused by the animal disease and the adopted control measures must be assessed. This article presents a brief overview of the methodological approaches used to retrospectively analyse the economic impact of two particular relevant diseases in Germany in the last few years: Blue-tongue disease (BT) and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE).

  14. Economic analysis of non-profit organization

    OpenAIRE

    Petráňová, Tereza

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis deals with an economic situation of the allowance organization Základní škola Pardubice-Dubina in the year period 2006 – 2010. The aim of the thesis is to propose possible recommendations that would improve the economic situation of the school. The theoretical part of the thesis dedicates to the concept of allowance organizations. First it defines the status of allowance organizations in the national economy, particularly in the non-profit sector. It also describes the...

  15. EU Funded Projects: from Financial to Economic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Lorena RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Investment projects represent the basis of economic and social development of our country. The investment is a cost that will most influence the future, but it is necessary that this influence should be not only positive, but also should exceed the investment efforts. There could be different sources of financing the investment, but lately, European grants are more and more accessed by various economic agents or institutions. To obtain European financing, the project must fulfill certain conditions and must follow certain economic, social and environmental indicators. Also, for some financing lines, is required the economic analysis preparation, in order to demonstrate that the project benefits to society are important and cover the investments efforts. Thus, economic analysis studies the project influence on macro-economic or regional level, and evaluates its contribution to the welfare of the region or local community. The present paper aims to analyze the most important and available theoretical resources and to provide practical examples for carrying out the economic analysis. In conclusion, economic analysis is an useful tool for each project evaluation, but the biggest barriers to its development are the lack of valid data and the reduced Romanian experience. Under these conditions, input data can be incorrectly estimated, resulting illusory and subjective project data. For a proper projects selection based on indicators of economic assessment, it must be developed a national, complete and complex guide.

  16. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

    2012-01-01

    Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness. PMID:22479547

  17. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carsten Murawski

    Full Text Available Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness.

  18. Strategic Decision-Making and Social Skills: Integrating Behavioral Economics and Social Cognition Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Leder

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decisions are affected by beliefs about the expectations of others and their possible decisions. Thus, strategic decisions are influenced by the social context and by beliefs about other actors’ levels of sophistication. The present study investigated whether strategic decision-making, as measured by the beauty contest game, is associated with social skills, as measured by the Autism Quotient (AQ. In line with our hypothesis, we found that social skills were positively related to successful strategic decision-making. Furthermore, results showed a curvilinear relationship between steps of reasoning in the beauty contest game and social skills, indicating that very high as well as very low scoring individuals on the social skills subscale of the AQ engaged in high-levels of strategic thinking.

  19. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

  20. A basic analysis of cogeneration economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Collet, P.J.

    1989-01-01

    The economics of small scale gas turbine based cogeneration systems are analyzed on the basis of avoided costs for an electric utility exploiting such systems. This concerns a theoretical study in which the cogeneration system as a means for electricity generation is assumed to supplant the building

  1. Policies on Private Education: An Economics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fengqiao, Yan

    2009-01-01

    Basic principles and analytical methods of economics are used to conduct a preliminary study of state policies for private education in China. It is evident that if public policy is to exert a positive effect on private education, the government must formulate policies at a higher level for private education and give equal attention to choice,…

  2. Analysis of Production and Location Decisions by Means of Multi-Criteria Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Nijkamp (Peter); J. Spronk (Jaap)

    1979-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last few years economists and operations researchers have paid much attention to multi-criteria analysis as a tool in modern decision-making. The basic feature of multi-criteria analysis is the fact that a wide variety of relevant decision aspects can be taken into account wit

  3. The Methods of Sensitivity Analysis and Their Usage for Analysis of Multicriteria Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rūta Simanavičienė

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the application's fields of the sensitivity analysis methods. We pass in review the application of these methods in multiple criteria decision making, when the initial data are numbers. We formulate the problem, which of the sensitivity analysis methods is more effective for the usage in the decision making process.Article in Lithuanian

  4. The role (or not) of economic evaluation at the micro level: can Bourdieu's theory provide a way forward for clinical decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

    2010-06-01

    Despite increasing interest in health economic evaluation, investigations have shown limited use by micro (clinical) level decision-makers. A considerable amount of health decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care. Since every decision has an opportunity cost, ignoring economic information in family physicians' (FPs) decision-making may have a broad impact on health care efficiency. Knowledge translation of economic evaluation is often based on taken-for-granted assumptions about actors' interests and interactions, neglecting much of the complexity of social reality. Health economics literature frequently assumes a rational and linear decision-making process. Clinical decision-making is in fact a complex social, dynamic, multifaceted process, involving relationships and contextual embeddedness. FPs are embedded in complex social networks that have a significant impact on skills, attitudes, knowledge, practices, and on the information being used. Because of their socially constructed nature, understanding preferences, professional culture, practices, and knowledge translation requires serious attention to social reality. There has been little exploration by health economists of whether the problem may be more fundamental and reside in a misunderstanding of the process of decision-making. There is a need to enhance our understanding of the role of economic evaluation in decision-making from a disciplinary perspective different than health economics. This paper argues for a different conceptualization of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making, and proposes Bourdieu's sociological theory as a research framework. Bourdieu's theory of practice illustrates how the context-sensitive nature of practice must be understood as a socially constituted practical knowledge. The proposed approach could substantially contribute to a more complex understanding of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making.

  5. Measuring economic journals’ citation efficiency: A data envelopment analysis approach

    OpenAIRE

    Halkos, George; Tzeremes, Nickolaos

    2011-01-01

    This paper by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and statistical inference evaluates the citation performance of 229 economic journals. The paper categorizes the journals into four main categories (A to D) based on their efficiency levels. The results are then compared to the 27 “core economic journals” as introduced by Dimond (1989). The results reveal that after more than twenty years Diamonds’ list of “core economic journals” is still valid. Finally, for the first time the paper uses da...

  6. Fundamental Principles of Conducting a Surgery Economic Analysis Study

    OpenAIRE

    Kotsis, Sandra V.; Chung, Kevin C.

    2010-01-01

    Although economic evaluation has become more popular among medical professionals, its use in surgery is still lacking. Economic evaluation is used even less so in plastic surgery in which health-related quality of life is of particular importance. The purpose of this paper, part of a tutorial series on Evidence Based Medicine, will focus on the fundamental principles of conducting a surgery economic analysis.

  7. MARC21 y conceptos de economía en las decisiones bibliotecarias: MARC21 and economic concepts in the library-related decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A. Herrera

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available En el contexto profesional bibliotecológico de la catalogación moderna, y utilizando MARC21 en el marco internacional y la historia de los formatos, en Argentina como casos de estudio, se propone una metodología basada en la teoría de costo de oportunidad, extraída del campo de la economía, como elemento a considerar para la toma de decisiones.In the Library Science professional context of modern cataloging and studying MARC21 in the international framework on one hand, and the history of formats in Argentina on the other hand, it is suggested a methodology based on the opportunity cost theory, from the economic field, as an element to be considered for decision making.

  8. Robbery, Economic Incentives and Deterrence: An Intercountry Analysis for 1997

    OpenAIRE

    Susan S. Navarro

    2004-01-01

    Causes of crime were sought in individual's characteristics, sociological aspects and illicit drug use. Since the pioneering work of Gary Becker (1968), economists have analyzed determinants of crime from the perspective of the offender's rational decision to participate in illegal activities. Cross section data for 1997 were used in this paper to examine intercountry differences in effects of economic incentives and deterrence on robbery rates at national levels. Significant negative effects...

  9. Prefarm Systems and economical analysis of practical experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gnip

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The system of Precision farming guarantees a detail monitoring of data and information necessary for a successful decision in a crop production. The system is designed for a data collection from several sources. The data are collected by a service company and also directly by farmers. The paper also analyses the economical efficiency on the base of Medlov Farm. Next development is currently running under projects Prezem and AgriSensor.

  10. Nuclear Waste Disposal in France: the Contribution of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Héraud, Jean - Alain; Ionescu, Oana

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the following question: How to deal with uncertainty, emergence of new information and irreversibility in the decision process of the long-term disposal of radioactive waste? Intuitively, one might think that measures taken today are more relevant when they are ‡exible. We show that the theoretical economic insights supplements this intuition and more precisely we emphasize the real options theory as one means of valuing ‡exible strategies in the disposal of highly radi...

  11. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  12. Cost-benefit analysis in decision making for diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diagnostic medical radiation represents the largest source of man-made radiation exposure to the general population. A brief review is given of certain current concepts and methods relating to benefit-risk analysis, in terms of economic costs and radiation risks to health, in relation to the benefits from diagnostic radiology in clinical medicine. (U.K.)

  13. Clustering Analysis of Black-start Decision-making with a Large Group of Decision-makers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    The optimization of black start decisiommaking plays an important role in the rapid restoration of a power system after a major failure/outage. With the introduction of the concept of smart grids and the development of real-time communication networks, the black-start decision-makers are no longer limited to only one or a few power system experts such as dispatchers, but rather a large group of professional people in practice. The overall behaviors of a large decision-making group of decision-makers/experts are more complicated and unpredictable. However, the existing methods for black-start decision-making cannot handle the situations with a large group of decision-makers. Given this background, a clustering algorithm is presented to optimize the black-start decision-making problem with a large group of decision-makers. Group decision-making preferences are obtained by clustering analysis, and the final black-start decisiommaking results are achieved by combining the weights of black-start indexes and the preferences of the decision-making group. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by a practical case. This work extends the black-start decision-making problem to situations with a large group of decision-makers.

  14. Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Simoens

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from yearly differences in new medicines that request reimbursement and in the budget size, and from the fact that decision makers take into account other decision criteria in addition to cost-effectiveness.

  15. Economic Analysis of World Bank Education Projects and Project Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vawda, Ayesha Yaqub; Moock, Peter; Gittinger, J. Price; Patrinos, Harry Anthony

    2003-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that World Bank education projects have a higher likelihood of being successful if at the time of appraisal, they underwent good quality economic analysis. Analysis shows a strong relationship between the quality of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis and the quality of project outcomes. Economic…

  16. Resources and energy: an economic analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, F.E.

    1983-01-01

    Two long core chapters on oil and on nonfuel minerals, along with an exposition of the econometrics of primary commodities, give the reader a basic insight into the economic techniques and their uses. There are also chapters on coal, gas, and uranium, which include an overview of the Soviet energy sector and the Australian coal industry. The book introduces oil refining, petrochemicals, futures markets, inventories, capital costs, tin, stock-flow models, and other topics not usually handled in most economics text and reference books. There is also a short survey of iron and steel. The book concludes with the note that attempts to check inflation by monetary means in the presence of the kind of consumer and corporate debt that exists today is begging for catastrophe. Monetarism, like champagne, is good for pleasure, but very bad for business. 210 references, 47 figures, 41 tables.

  17. Economic analysis of wood energy valorization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Companies linked to the lumber activities began to concern about the valorization of their industrial residues: either by creating new products or by utilizing them for energy generation. At the same time, companies from other sectors began investing in reforestations dedicated to energy generation (mainly eucalyptus), induced by the possibility of obtaining tax incentives and by the need of assuring their own provisions of wood, thus minimizing this raw-material, as well as its sensibility to the variation of its price in the market. However almost nothing have been researched, either about the economical feasibility of energetic valorization of the lumber in the form of industrial residues or as wood supplied by reforestation dedicated to energy generation. This dissertation propose to examine those cases analysing the concerned costs and their economical feasibility. (author). 20 refs., 19 figs., 32 tabs

  18. Decision Envelopment Analysis of space and terrestrially-based large scale commercial power systems for earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criswell, David R.; Thompson, Russell G.

    1992-08-01

    Decision Envelopment Analysis (DEA), the detailed quantitative comparison of alternative economic systems, is used to compare the technical efficiency of the large-scale power systems needed to meet the growing energy needs of terrestrial society. The Lunar Power System (LPS) captures sunlight on the moon, converts it to microwaves and beams the power to receivers on earth that output electricity. In terms of benefits versus costs, normalized to the range of 0 to 1, DEA reveals that LPS is at least ten times more efficient than conventional terrestrial solar-thermal and -photovoltaic, fossil, and nuclear systems. LPS is also environmentally benign compared to the conventional systems.

  19. An Economic Analysis of Campaign Finance

    OpenAIRE

    Andrea Prat

    2000-01-01

    Electoral campaign finance is an important, and much debated, phenomenon in democracies throughout the world. This article discusses a possible economic model of campaign finance, which could be used for policy evaluation. At the core of the model lies an asymmetry of information between lobbies and voters. Lobbies know more than voters about the quality of candidates. Campaign contributions constitute an indirect way to reveal lobbies’ information to voters. However, this informational ben...

  20. Economic Analysis of Islamic Banking in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Shaikh, Salman

    2013-01-01

    Islamic banking has achieved substantial growth in Pakistan and all over the world in the last two decades or so. Despite the financial and economic crisis of 2007 and afterwards, the Islamic banking industry has witnessed exemplary and uninterrupted growth. In Pakistan, it has achieved market share of almost 9% in the banking industry. There is vast literature available on explaining the features and mechanics of Islamic banking; however, limited attention has been paid on the thorough analy...

  1. Economic analysis of freeway town of Yunnan

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhao Junquan; Zhang Haixiang

    2009-01-01

    Freeway town in Yunnan is driving to promote the economic development ties.The development along the highway in the town will become the central point of the performance the high-intensive economy in space and will increase new economic growth point along highway the vertical and horizontal development of the area around the gradient the proliJeration Point and Area.The highway town will develop to speed up the urbanization process and China should accelerate the development of the freeway town.Encouraging farmers will shift the highway town where some good conditions will build to.form a regional economic development and growth.This will be the promotion an inevitable choice of progress and rational way of China's rural economic" and social prosperity.In particular,freeway town will bring more added value of other social services of accommodation and catering industry of wholesale and retail of transportation and warehousing.Highway town and agriculture industrialization development will increase agriculture industry chain to improve agricultural products value and will enhance agricultural efficiency in Yunnan.The concentration of the non-agricultural industries of the speedway town will form pillar industries of highway town and will promote of tertiary industry development of hotels of insurance of finance of business of sports of culture of education of communications of transportation.Rural areas of Yunnan will adjust to optimize the industrial structure.It is estimated that a total 10 construction of the highway town of Yunnan will increase 0.8-1 billion )man revenue each year.

  2. Economic analysis of spider web airline networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The distinct network organization, management, service and operating characteristics of US Southwest Airlines are key elements of its success compared with other airlines. As a network organization type, the spider web airline network has received more attention. In this paper, we analyzed the relation between the spider web airline network and spider web, and the structure of spider web airline network, built the assignment model of the spider web airline network,and investigated the economics concerned.

  3. Economic Analysis on Monetization of Soil Functions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zenglei; XI; Shaoqing; ZHANG

    2013-01-01

    On the basis of making clear diversity characteristics of soil functions and multiple characteristics of income, this paper points out that the monetization of soil functions based functional maintenance and change decision process can be regarded as a game process of different utilization methods at the background of different functions. The balance of this game process will determine monetary value of soil functions. After understanding money and monetization concepts, it introduces that measurability and exchangeability of soil functions provide objective conditions for monetization of soil functions. Finally, it discusses that usefulness value of soil functions provide basis for monetization of soil functions.

  4. Economic analysis of new space transportation systems: Executive summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    1971-01-01

    An economic analysis of alternative space transportation systems is presented. Results indicate that the expendable systems represent modest investments, but the recurring costs of operation would remain high. The space shuttle and tug system requires a substantial investment, but would substantially reduce the recurring costs of operation. Economic benefits and costs of the different systems are also analyzed. Findings are summarized.

  5. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  6. Comparative economic analysis: Anaerobic digester case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic guide is developed to assess the value of anaerobic digesters used on dairy farms. Two varieties of anaerobic digesters, a conventional mixed-tank mesophilic and an innovative earthen psychrophilic, are comparatively evaluated using a cost-effectiveness index. The two case study examples are also evaluated using three other investment merit statistics: simple payback period, net present value, and internal rate of return. Life-cycle savings are estimated for both varieties, with sensitivities considered for investment risk. The conclusion is that an earthen psychrophilic digester can have a significant economic advantage over a mixed-tank mesophilic digester because of lower capital cost and reduced operation and maintenance expenses. Because of this economic advantage, additional projects are being conducted in North Carolina to increase the rate of biogas utilization. The initial step includes using biogas for milk cooling at the dairy farm where the existing psychrophilic digester is located. Further, a new project is being initiated for electricity production with thermal reclaim at a swine operation

  7. Economic Reforms, Human Capital, and Economic Growth in India and South Korea: A Cointegration Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Svitlana Maksymenko; Mahbub Rabbani

    2008-01-01

    By employing a multivariate time series model, this study advances theoretical and empirical research on the role of economic reforms and human capital accumulation in the post-reform economic growth. We construct two indexes £­a human capital index and a composite economic reform index£­ and perform a cointegration analysis of a long-run equilibrium growth path in India and South Korea twelve years after the implementation of reform. The significant positive effect of human capital accumulat...

  8. Methods of economic analysis applied to fusion research. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this and previous efforts ECON has provided economic assessment of a fusion research program. This phase of study focused on two tasks, the first concerned with the economics of fusion in an economy that relies heavily upon synthetic fuels, and the second concerned with the overall economic effects of pursuing soft energy technologies instead of hard technologies. This report is organized in two parts, the first entitled An Economic Analysis of Coproduction of Fusion-Electric Energy and Other Products, and the second entitled Arguments Associated with the Choice of Potential Energy Futures

  9. Marginal Products of the Survey and Principles of Economics Courses: Empirical Information for Curriculum Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Thomas

    In order to determine the most appropriate economics prerequisites for selected courses at Thomas Nelson Community College, a study was conducted during Winter 1980 to compare the relative effectiveness of a one-quarter survey course in economics with a three-quarter principles course. The study involved the pre- and post-testing of students…

  10. A decision chart for assessing and improving the transferability of economic evaluation results between countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welte, Robert; Feenstra, Talitha; Jager, Hans; Leidl, Reiner

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop a user-friendly tool for managing the transfer of economic evaluation results. METHODS: Factors that may influence the transfer of health economic study results were systematically identified and the way they impact on transferability was investigated. A transferability decisio

  11. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  12. Decision analysis of treatment choices in the osteochondroses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunch, W H

    1981-01-01

    Physicians tend to decry the lack of data on which they can make decisions. This is commendable, and all should encourage the pursuit of better data and more precise analysis. But decisions must be made, and each physician must deal with what data are available and evaluate them against all the general uncertainties. Equally important are the values that we place on the outcome of treatment. Much of the disagreement among physicians about treatment protocols involves a difference in values. While this is not necessarily bad, it points to the need to consider explicitly the value we place on a result or the morbidity possibly accompanying that result. In the osteochondroses, consideration of values will protect patients from overzealous treatment. Finally, the formality of a decision process should not necessarily modify a plan of treatment based on fundamentally sound principles, intuition, and anecdotal experience. Regardless of which factors represent the basis for an individual surgeon's selection of a particular approach, evaluation of both desirable and undesirable aspects of each alternative prevents impulsive acceptance of the most recently described, often unproven operation. Salter's aphorism: "The decision is more important than the incision," is particularly applicable in treatment of the osteochondroses.

  13. Maternal serologic screening to prevent congenital toxoplasmosis: a decision-analytic economic model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eileen Stillwaggon

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To determine a cost-minimizing option for congenital toxoplasmosis in the United States. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A decision-analytic and cost-minimization model was constructed to compare monthly maternal serological screening, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French (Paris protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate robustness of results. Universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French protocol, is found to be cost-saving, with savings of $620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection in pregnancy. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of $12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. If universal testing generates economies of scale in diagnostic tools-lowering test costs to about $2 per test-universal screening is cost-saving at rates of congenital infection well below the lowest reported rates in the United States of 1 per 10,000 live births. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities.

  14. An AHP decision making model for optimal allocation of energy subsidy among socio-economic subsectors in Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) decision model for sectoral allocation of energy subsidy based on several criteria. With determination of priorities for these criteria through questionnaire and AHP method, the overall rank of these criteria that have the most influence on distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic sub-sectors, are as the following: inflation, economic growth, labor intensity, distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels, energy intensity and social cost of air pollution. According to the model, the first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector and the last priority is related to transportation sector. Investigating the impact of changing priority of the criteria on overall results indicates that the socio-economic sub sectors’ ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria. - Highlights: ► Commerce subsector is the best sub sector with an overall priority score of 0.331. ► The first priority for allocation of energy subsidy is commercial sector. ► When we increase the priority of each criterion first time, then overall rank of the outcome has little changing. ► The socio-economic sub sectors' ranking in receiving subsidy have little sensitivity for changing priority of the subsidy criteria.

  15. An Economic Analysis of the Mafia

    OpenAIRE

    David Maddison; Marilena Pollicino

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the current economic thinking on the Mafia phenomenon. It distinguishes the Mafia from ordinary criminal gangs by the desire of the former for the exclusive right to commit criminal acts. The existence of the Mafia in particular locations at particular times is explained by the abdication of power or by the state’s unwitting creation of illegal markets. The Mafia’s involvement in the supply of illicit goods is due to its ability to prey on common criminals, while its in...

  16. The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Combating Economic Crisis. An Analysis Based on the Economic Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu MARINAŞ

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to identify, in the economic literature, the main factors which constrain the transmission of the fiscal shocks to the real economy. The interest in finding the most efficient fiscal stimuli in recovery the economies passing through crisis period has got increased as soon as the expansionary monetary policy promoted by most of the central banks has not generated an increase of the confidence in the private economic agents and, as a consequence, an increase of consumption and of the private investments. Even though it represents the Keynesian solution for recovery the economies which have been affected by the crisis, the fiscal expansion promoted during the recession periods does not generate the same expected positive effects any more (increase of consumption, significant decrease of unemployment, increase of revenues in economy, as they are conditioned by the reaction of the private economic agents to the fiscal stimuli. For example, the decision to decrease taxation may not automatically generate the significant increase of consumption (a condition for spreading the multiplier effect in economy, under the terms of pessimism or of the difficulty to access loans. As a result, the fiscal multipliers tend to be rather proper, and their value decreases more during the deep economic recession periods.

  17. Journal interaction. A bibliometric analysis of economics journals

    OpenAIRE

    Frandsen, Tove Faber

    2005-01-01

    Citation analysis is widely used as an evaluation method within sciences. This paper seeks to qualify citation analyses by adding insight into the sciences under investigation. The paper presents a method of citation analysis using multiple linear regressions on both cited and citing economic journals. The proposed method controls for the different characteristics of the journals as well as for their degree of interaction. The paper shows some of the hidden structures within the economic scie...

  18. Standardization: using comparative maintenance costs in an economic analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, Roger Nelson

    1987-01-01

    This thesis investigates the use of comparative maintenance costs of functionally interchangeable equipments in similar U.S. Navy shipboard applications in an economic analysis of standardization. The economics of standardization, life-cycle costing, and the Navy 3-M System are discussed in general. An analysis of 3-M System maintenance costs for a selected equipment, diesel engines, is conducted. The potential use of comparative maintenance costs in determining an equipment standard and e...

  19. Forensic Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Eric Zitzewitz

    2012-01-01

    A new meta-field of "forensic economics" has begun to emerge, uncovering evidence of hidden behavior in a variety of domains. Examples include teachers cheating on exams, road builders skimping on materials, violations of U.N. sanctions, unnecessary heart surgeries, and racial biases in employment decisions, traffic stops, auto retailing, and even sports judging. In each case, part of the contribution of economic analysis is in uncovering evidence of wrongdoing. Although research questions di...

  20. Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

  1. Joint Environmental and Economical Analysis of Wastewater Treatment Plants Control Strategies: A Benchmark Scenario Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montse Meneses

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a joint environmental and economic analysis of different Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP control strategies is carried out. The assessment is based on the application of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA as a method to evaluate the environmental impact and the Benchmark Simulation Model No. 1 (BSM1. The BSM1 is taken as the benchmark scenario used to implement the control strategies. The Effluent Quality Index (EQI and the Overall Cost Index (OCI are two indicators provided by BSM1 and used to evaluate the plant’s performance from the effluent quality and the economic points of view, respectively. This work conducts a combined analysis and assessment of ten different control strategies defined to operate a wastewater treatment plant. This analysis includes the usual economic and performance indexes provided by BSM1 joined with the LCA analysis that determines the environmental impact linked to each one of the considered control strategies. It is shown how to get an overall evaluation of the environmental effects by using a normalized graphical representation that can be easily used to compare control strategies from the environmental impact point of view. The use of only the BSM1 indexes provides an assessment that leads to a clustering of control strategies according to the cost/quality tradeoff they show. Therefore, regarding the cost/quality tradeoff, all strategies in the same group are almost equal and do not provide an indication on how to proceed in order to select the appropriate one. It is therefore shown how the fact of adding a new, complementary, evaluation (LCA based allows either to reinforce a decision that could be taken solely on the basis of the EQI/OCI tradeoff or to select one control strategy among the others.

  2. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. SABAU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  3. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  4. SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO ECONOMICS DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hossein HASSANI; Anatoly ZHIGLJAVSKY

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstrate that it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting, particulary for economic time series. The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian national accounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of lran.

  5. Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillol, Marie-Hélène

    2012-01-01

    Political anticipation (PA), as practiced by Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, is a method for improving the capacity to understand trends and forecast events with the aim of influencing events on a large or small scale. Our operational definition of anticipation is 'To foresee in order to act.' Intended to be efficient and of immediate use, PA is conceived as a decision-making tool for all types of decision-makers: politicians, economists, administrators, business leaders, private investors, educators, as well as heads of households. Everyone, in a professional or private role, makes important decisions (for employees, for business operations and commerce, for family, for investments, for jurisdictions, and for the country and economic zone, among other areas in which the polis is involved). Given the dynamics of reality in our times, every decision appears as a wager on the future. It is also related to the wish or desire to obtain the best outcome for risk assumed (which a wager entails) and the effort expended.

  6. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  7. Ecological versus Economic Objectives: A Public Decision Making Problem in Agricultural Water Management

    OpenAIRE

    Zekri, Slim; Romero, Carlos

    1992-01-01

    The planning of a new in·igated area is a complex problem where a multiplicity of very different criteria (economic, ecological, social, etc.) have to be taken into account. A lexicographic goal programming model capable of handling this multiplicity is formulated. The methodology is applied to the planning of the irrigated lands of the village of Tauste in Arag6n (Spain). An important result generated by the model is the conflict between economic criteria and environmental effects such as "s...

  8. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  9. An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R

    1978-07-01

    This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.

  10. An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R

    1978-07-01

    This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force. PMID:12265626

  11. Quantitative analysis of the economically recoverable resource

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulle, C.V.; Seskus, A.P.

    1981-05-01

    The objective of this study is to obtain estimates of the economically recoverable gas in the Appalachian Basin. The estimates were obtained in terms of a probability distribution, which quantifies the inherent uncertainty associated with estimates where geologic and production uncertainties prevail. It is established that well productivity on a county and regional basis is lognormally distributed, and the total recoverable gas is Normally distributed. The expected (mean), total economically recoverable gas is 20.2 trillion cubic feet (TCF) with a standard deviation of 1.6 TCF, conditional on the use of shooting technology on 160-acre well-spacing. From properties of the Normal distribution, it is seen that a 95 percent probability exists for the total recoverable gas to lie between 17.06 and 23.34 TCF. The estimates are sensitive to well spacings and the technology applied to a particular geologic environment. It is observed that with smaller well spacings - for example, at 80 acres - the estimate is substantially increased, and that advanced technology, such as foam fracturing, has the potential of significantly increasing gas recovery. However, the threshold and optimum conditions governing advanced exploitation technology, based on well spacing and other parameters, were not analyzed in this study. Their technological impact on gas recovery is mentioned in the text where relevant; and on the basis of a rough projection an additional 10 TCF could be expected with the use of foam fracturing on wells with initial open flows lower than 300 MCFD. From the exploration point of view, the lognormal distribution of well productivity suggests that even in smaller areas, such as a county basis, intense exploration might be appropriate. This is evident from the small tail probabilities of the lognormal distribution, which represent the small number of wells with relatively very high productivity.

  12. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Nicole M; Sera, Maria D; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of "cognitive entropy" were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured "chunking" of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework.

  13. Modeling of financial and economic security of transport enterprises based on factor analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. O. Novikov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Financial and economic security defines sustainable financial development of the enterprise, that is balanced and sustained, it justifies the necessity to achieve it through the effective use of all kinds of resources that are available at the enterprise. The purpose of the article is to improve the methodical estimation bases of the financial and economic security state at the transport enterprises, taking into account sector specificity for making the effective management decisions. Methodology. Theoretical and methodical basis of the research is in the systematic analysis of the process of assessing and modeling of the financial and economic security of enterprises in transport sector, theoretical principles of economic science in the sphere of financial efficiency evaluation of economic activities in a changing environment. Findings. The structure of the financial and economic security of the enterprises in transport industry was studied. The internal communication between the partial indicators of the investigated process for selection of necessary and sufficient quantities of the most indicative factors of influence were defined. Partial components of the financial and economic security based on the results of its modeling formation at the transport enterprises using factor analysis methods were systematized. Originality. Authors improved the methodological basis of quantitative evaluation of the financial and economic security level at the transport enterprises on the basis of the aggregate partial indicators, which was formed with industry specificity. This allows evaluating complex estimation of the degree of external and internal factors influence on the financial and economic security at the enterprises to ensure the effective management decisions making in order to achieve planned financial performance indicators of their activity. Practical value. Certain trends of forming ability of the transport companies to protect their

  14. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ''market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate

  15. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called ``market barriers`` to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland`s attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  16. On the economic analysis of problems in energy efficiency: Market barriers, market failures, and policy implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanstad, A.H.; Koomey, J.G.; Levine, M.D.

    1993-01-01

    In his recent paper in The Energy Journal, Ronald Sutherland argues that several so-called market barriers'' to energy efficiency frequently cited in the literature are not market failures in the conventional sense and are thus irrelevant for energy policy. We argue that Sutherland has inadequately analyzed the idea of market barrier and misrepresented the policy implications of microeconomics. We find that economic theory, correctly interpreted, does not provide for the categorical dismissal of market barriers. We explore important methodological issues underlying the debate over market barriers, and discuss the importance of reconciling the findings of non-economic social sciences with the economic analysis of energy demand and consumer decision-making. We also scrutinize Sutherland's attempt to apply finance theory to rationalize high implicit discount rates observed in energy-related choices, and find this use of finance theory to be inappropriate.

  17. Multi-objective Programming and Social Welfare Analysis of Rural-urban Land Conversion Decision-making

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song Min; Zhang Anlu

    2008-01-01

    Rural-urban land conversion is an inevitable phenomenon in urbanization and industrialization. And the decision-making issue about this conversion is multi-objective because the social decision maker (the whole of central government and local authority) has to integrate the requirements of different interest groups (rural collective economic organizations, peasants, urban land users and the ones affected indirectly) and harmonize the sub-objects (economic, social and ecological outcomes) of this land allocation process. This paper established a multi-objective programming model for rural-urban land conversion decision-making and made some social welfare analysis correspondingly. Result shows that the general object of rural-urban land conversion decision-making is to reach the optimal level of social welfare in a certain state of resources allocation, while the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making objects.

  18. Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities. PMID:26617546

  19. Genetic factors of individual differences in decision making in economic behavior: A Japanese twin study using the Allais problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chizuru eShikishima

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary utility even when objective information of probabilities and rewards are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more rational. We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20–47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of rational decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

  20. Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

  1. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively

  2. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peerenboom, J.P.; Hanson, M.E.; Huddleston, J.R. [and others

    1996-08-01

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

  3. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

  4. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  5. Soft Mathematical Aggregation in Safety Assessment and Decision Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, J. Arlin

    1999-06-10

    This paper improves on some of the limitations of conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. It develops a top-down mathematical method for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers and shows how they may be combined (aggregated) into an overall metric, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. Both positively contributing and negatively contributing factors are included. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute and evaluated as to contribution toward the attribute. Aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed soft mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on overlap of the factors and by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to add important information to the decision process. The methodology has been implemented in software.

  6. On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

  7. STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vazakidis Athanasios

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Questions were raised whether stock market development causes economic growth taking into account the negative effect of interest rate on stock market development. The purpose of this study was to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between the examined variables applying the Johansen co-integration analysis. To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of stock market index 0.41% in Greece, while an increase of interest rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of stock market index per 1.42% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth with direction from economic growth to stock market development and a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and interest rate with direction from economic growth to interest rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a direct positive effect on stock market development while interest rate has a negative effect on stock market development and economic growth respectively.

  8. AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE PRISON SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Ioana GRUIA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a short cost analysis related to the prisoners of Romania in comparison with other countries. The purpose of the article is to present the current situation of the costs and expenditures, the state is taking when imprisoning a delinquent and to draw future lines for the improvement of the prison system and Criminal Code. Data is used from online available governmental sources worldwide and is statistically worked and interpreted. The analysis is corroborated with the laws from the old and new Romanian Criminal Code and conclusions are drawn. The article presents partial results of the author’s yet not published work.

  9. Choices, choices: the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to a food safety decision-making problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazil, A; Rajic, A; Sanchez, J; McEwen, S

    2008-11-01

    In the food safety arena, the decision-making process can be especially difficult. Decision makers are often faced with social and fiscal pressures when attempting to identify an appropriate balance among several choices. Concurrently, policy and decision makers in microbial food safety are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that their policies and decisions are made using transparent and accountable processes. In this article, we present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to address the problem of trying to select a food safety intervention while balancing various criteria. Criteria that are important when selecting an intervention were determined, as a result of an expert consultation, to include effectiveness, cost, weight of evidence, and practicality associated with the interventions. The multi-criteria decision analysis approach we present is able to consider these criteria and arrive at a ranking of interventions. It can also provide a clear justification for the ranking as well as demonstrate to stakeholders, through a scenario analysis approach, how to potentially converge toward common ground. While this article focuses on the problem of selecting food safety interventions, the range of applications in the food safety arena is truly diverse and can be a significant tool in assisting decisions that need to be coherent, transparent, and justifiable. Most importantly, it is a significant contributor when there is a need to strike a fine balance between various potentially competing alternatives and/or stakeholder groups.

  10. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  11. Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncada, Jonathan; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M; Cardona, Carlos A

    2013-05-01

    In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia.

  12. Techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery: Colombian case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncada, Jonathan; El-Halwagi, Mahmoud M; Cardona, Carlos A

    2013-05-01

    In this paper a techno-economic analysis for a sugarcane biorefinery is presented for the Colombian case. It is shown two scenarios for different conversion pathways as function of feedstock distribution and technologies for sugar, fuel ethanol, PHB, anthocyanins and electricity production. These scenarios are compared with the Colombian base case which simultaneously produce sugar, fuel ethanol and electricity. A simulation procedure was used in order to evaluate biorefinery schemes for all the scenarios, using Aspen Plus software, that include productivity analysis, energy calculations and economic evaluation for each process configuration. The results showed that the configuration with the best economic, environmental and social performance is the one that considers fuel ethanol and PHB production from combined cane bagasse and molasses. This result served as the basis to draw recommendations on technological and economic feasibility as well as social aspects for the implementation of such type of biorefinery in Colombia. PMID:23021947

  13. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  14. Economic analysis of thermal solvent processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vapour extraction (VAPEX) uses horizontal well pairs and a gaseous solvent to mobilize the oil. Hybrid solvent processes inject a light hydrocarbon solvent in addition to sufficient amounts of steam to vaporize the solvent. This paper reviewed various laboratory model experiments that evaluated VAPEX and solvent-based processes for the recovery of heavy oil or bitumen. The project compared a VAPEX process, a thermal solvent reflux process and a hybrid-solvent SAGD process using scaled laboratory models. Several experimental models were used. The first high-pressure thermal solvent experiment was conducted with a laboratory model designed to scale a 20 m thick Burnt Lake reservoir. Propane was used as the solvent. The second sequence of experiments scaled a range of processes from VAPEX to hybrid solvents for an Athabasca bitumen reservoir using a sealed can type of model confined by a gaseous overburden with propane as the solvent. The third experiment was a hybrid solvent experiment in which propane and steam were injected simultaneously into the injector well. The final experiment was a propane-steam hybrid experiment at a higher steam injection rate. The aim of the study was to evaluate the processes, build a database of experimental performance and to determine whether any single process had a significant economic advantage. It was concluded that the lowest cost process for Athabasca bitumen was the thermal solvent hybrid process followed by low pressure SAGD. The thermal solvent experiment using hot propane injection recovered heavy oil at costs competitive to SAGD. Many of the experiments suggested a process life longer than 15 years, as the high viscosity of Athabasca bitumen and the resulting low diffusivity resulted in a slower oil recovery process. 5 refs., 3 tabs., 16 figs

  15. Analysis Of Economic Motivation When Individuals Choose An Educational Path

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Anatolyevich Koksharov

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors consider the economic motivations when individuals choose an educational path. This line of research is relevant from both, the point of view of science — research of economic behavior of an individual, and the point of view of practice — allows to increase efficiency of investments in a human capital. The authors have developed the economic and mathematical model of choice of optimum educational paths by individuals. The model is realized in the software and approved on real data on more than 5,5 thousand students. For the analysis of the importance of rational economic expectations when an educational path has to be chosen, the paths chosen by students is compared and the educational paths optimum from the point of view of economic rationality are calculated. The analysis of the results has showed that mainly, the choice of educational paths happens according to the economic motivations. On the considered selection, 66 % of prospective students have chosen an optimum path from the point of view of economic preferences. The most significant factor providing development of optimum educational paths is an expectation of higher income upon completion of education — 22 % of all educational paths, and a possibility of cost-cutting of educating or state-subsidized education — 12 %. In our opinion, one of the most important practical results of the research of optimum educational path is the need to consider expectations of students and prospective student when developing a state policy of investment in human capital.

  16. Chaotic time series analysis in economics: Balance and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faggini, Marisa, E-mail: mfaggini@unisa.it [Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università di Salerno, Fisciano 84084 (Italy)

    2014-12-15

    The aim of the paper is not to review the large body of work concerning nonlinear time series analysis in economics, about which much has been written, but rather to focus on the new techniques developed to detect chaotic behaviours in economic data. More specifically, our attention will be devoted to reviewing some of these techniques and their application to economic and financial data in order to understand why chaos theory, after a period of growing interest, appears now not to be such an interesting and promising research area.

  17. Economic analysis of land regeneration programmes through rural cooperatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An economic analysis of land regeneration programmes is given combining the criteria of financial as well as economic feasibility and sustainability applied to a wood plantation of Mallanahlly TGCS in Karnataka, India. Feasibility is measured in terms of economic benefits to the stakeholders and sustainability through optimal rotation of trees as well as continuous annual income to the stakeholders from such rotations. The plantation programme is evaluated at the perspectives of both TGCS and the society as a whole and it is found that benefit cost ratios are high in both the cases. (K.A.)

  18. Accounting Information in Analisys of Economic Activity and Decision Making System

    OpenAIRE

    ªerban Claudiu; Simion Dalia; Pãtruþescu Monica

    2012-01-01

    The role of accounting information in the decision making is essential, especially thanks to its dual, the circuit processes information in a financial accounting and management accounting cycle. In this way, management uses the information to determine business strategy on the one hand, and to provide operational management on the other. Accounting area is not isolated but is covered by a complex system of links inside (productive and functional segments, their makers), and the outside (cust...

  19. The role of economic incentives and attitudes in participation and childcare decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Edwin van Gameren

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the participation and childcare decisions made by mothers in two-parent households with children aged 0-12 in the Netherlands, paying special attention to the role of attitudes regarding work and care. In a multinomial logit model we distinguish between not working, a small parttime job, and a larger job. For working mothers we consider no childcare, informal, and formal childcare. We account for potential endogeneity of attitudes. The results show that the role of the price of for...

  20. Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm's production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals. it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner

  1. Comparative Analysis on Two Accounting Systems of Rural Economic Originations

    OpenAIRE

    Hu, Yu-ling

    2011-01-01

    In order to normalize the financial account of two kinds of economic organizations, the comparative analysis is conducted on the Accounting System of Village Collective Economic Organization and Accounting System of Farmers’ Cooperatives( Trial) issued by the Ministry of Finance . The comparison point out that application and accounting principles of the two kinds of accounting systems are different and analyzes the differences and similarities of the five accounting elements including ...

  2. Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    OpenAIRE

    Won Il Ko; Fanxing Gao

    2012-01-01

    An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT), DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX), and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyroprocessing (Pyro-SFR). This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC) has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fu...

  3. Analysis of economic impacts of the Hangzhou-Ningbo expressway

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘南

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway (in Zhejiang Province of the People' s Republic of China) on the region' s economic development. An econometric model shows the estimated contributions attributable to the expressway have increased year by year. And statistical data indicate that the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway has promoted to some extent the region's economic devel-opment in various aspects.

  4. Analysis of economic impacts of the Hangzhou-Ningbo expressway

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘南

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway (in Zhejiang Province of the People's Republic of China) on the region's economic development. An econometric model shows the estimated contributions attributable to the expressway have increased year by year. And statistical data indicate that the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway has promoted to some extent the region's economic development in various aspects.

  5. Economic Analysis of Corporate Social Responsibility Influence on Enterprise Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Hájek, Tomáš

    2013-01-01

    The Diploma thesis focuses on the issues related to Economic analysis of corporate social responsibility influence on enterprise performance. It describes and evaluates corporate social responsibility as a phenomenon linked to the socio-economic environment of an enterprise. The theoretical section summarizes current findings about corporate social responsibility, provides with insights into the theoretical background and introduce the predispositions of the socially responsible concept in co...

  6. The role of economic evaluation in vaccine decision making : Focus on meningococcal group C conjugate vaccine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Welte, R.; Trotter, C.L.; Edmunds, W.J.; Postma, Maarten; Beutels, P.H.

    2005-01-01

    In recent years, several countries have experienced increases in the incidence of serogroup C meningococcal disease. It can be controlled with older polysaccharide vaccines and particularly the recently developed conjugate vaccines. For 21 developed countries, we investigated the role that economic

  7. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    OpenAIRE

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR; Gianina MIHAI

    2014-01-01

    Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions f...

  8. Economic Analysis of Leading Logistics Companies' Stocks

    OpenAIRE

    Chyška, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    The bachelor thesis focuses on analysis of leading logistics companies’ stocks. Literature review defines logistics as a rapidly evolving discipline, which has its roots far in the history. Logistics is also recognized as an important force that helps to drive the global economy. Supply chain and outsourcing are also discussed since they are very much connected to logistics. Stock market and important indexes are evaluated along with different types of stock charts in the literature review, a...

  9. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    OpenAIRE

    Dennis Epple; Richard Romano

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in multidistrict settings, the potential for rent seeking in public and private schools, the role of school reputations, incentives for student effort, a...

  10. Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.O. Poplavskiy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.

  11. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abba M. Wakili

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

  12. Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sener, Adil Caner

    This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be

  13. Composite tissue allotransplantation of the face: Decision analysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cugno, Sabrina; Sprague, Sheila; Duku, Eric; Thoma, Achilleas

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Facial composite tissue allotransplantation is a potential reconstructive option for severe facial disfigurement. The purpose of the present investigation was to use decision analysis modelling to ascertain the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with face transplantation (versus remaining in a disfigured state) in an effort to assist surgeons with the decision of whether to adopt this procedure. STUDY DESIGN: The probabilities of potential complications associated with facial allotransplantation were identified by a comprehensive review of kidney and hand transplant literature. A decision analysis tree illustrating possible health states for face allotransplantation was then constructed. Utilities were obtained from 30 participants, using the standard gamble and time trade-off measures. The utilities were then translated into QALYs, and the expected QALYs gained with transplantation were computed. RESULTS: Severe facial deformity was associated with an average of 7.34 QALYs. Allotransplantation of the face imparted an expected gain in QALYs of between 16.2 and 27.3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current debate within the medical community surrounding facial composite tissue allotransplantation has centred on the issue of inducing a state of immunocompromise in a physically healthy individual for a non-life-saving procedure. However, the latter must be weighed against the potential social and psychological benefits that transplantation would confer. As demonstrated by a gain of 26.9 QALYs, participants’ valuation of quality of life is notably greater for face transplantation with its side effects of immunosuppression than for a state of uncompromised physical health with severe facial disfigurement. PMID:19554146

  14. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam

    1996-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.

  15. Game Theory Model and Equilibrium Analysis of Peasant's Production Decision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qi Xue-lian; Zhang Ya-zhuo; Meng Jun

    2012-01-01

    Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government's positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants' income

  16. Economic analysis of alternative LLW disposal methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has evaluated the costs and benefits of alternative disposal technologies as part of its program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLW). Costs, population health effects and Critical Population Group (CPG) exposures resulting from alternative waste treatment and disposal methods were evaluated both in absolute terms and also relative to a base case (current practice). Incremental costs of the standard included costs for packaging, processing, transportation, and burial of waste. Benefits are defined in terms of reductions in the general population health risk (expected fatal cancers and genetic effects) evaluated over 10,000 years. A cost-effectiveness ratio, defined as the incremental cost per avoided health effect, was calculated for each alternative standard. The cost-effectiveness analysis took into account a number of waste streams, hydrogeologic and climatic region settings, and waste treatment and disposal methods. This paper describes the alternatives considered and preliminary results of the cost-effectiveness analysis. 15 references, 7 figures, 3 tables

  17. Social Identity Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Valtonen, Jani

    2014-01-01

    This master's thesis is a literature review on social identity economics. Traditional economic models, in which decisions of a rational agent are analyzed, have been challenged by models and theories where concepts and insights from other sciences such as sociology and psychology are introduced. Identity economics - pioneered by George Akerlof and Rachel Kranton - is a field that brings now the social context in to the economic analysis. In this thesis, I collect together the essential t...

  18. To be or not to be - a long term economic decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ways in which the Canadian oil and gas industry could optimize production and improve reservoir management to achieve the producer's primary objective of producing more while reducing the cost to produce, were examined. Technological advances such as horizontal drilling, coiled tubing, and underbalanced drilling were widely responsible for the success of the Canadian oil patch. These innovative technologies were induced by several factors, one of them being Canada's geographical location adjacent to the United States. Another factor was the Canadian oil industry's willingness to accept new technologies when the economic benefit was measurable. It was the author's contention that while these technological advances focused on drilling operations, the rapid and steep depletion in both oil and gas resources imply that the Canadian oil and gas industry is in need of similarly innovative approaches for production applications in order to sustain a reasonable economic scale for the industry. 8 refs., 6 figs

  19. Level of damages and economical threshold, decisive aspects in the integrated management of plagues.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Meneses

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The establishment and application of economical levels demand a procedure to find with precision the insects population in a given moment. In the integrated management of plagues is not allowed the idea that any insect which is feeding from a part of plants requires a control action, that is why it is very important to determine the real effect that this insect population causes to the cultivation. Any decrease in the crop, constitutes a real waste of time; but when the economical level is defined, it is included an additional factor which is the measure cost of the plagues control. The determination of damages of levels is very important for economists, farming experts and specialists; while for producers is very significant its implementation with the objective to count with a sustainable and beneficial agriculture.

  20. Economic evaluation of the spanish port system using the promethee multicriteria decision method

    OpenAIRE

    Ignacio, Castillo Manzano Jose; Quijada, Maria Teresa Arevalo; Nuño, Maria Mercedes Castro

    2004-01-01

    Due to legislation changes during the Nineties, the Spanish Port System has gone through a series of changes that, simultaneous with a period of economic expansion and generalized marine traffic growth, have affected the Port System’s composition, organization and operation. The gradual transformations produced by this context, give shape to a new model of operation for Port Authorities, which now start to be managed under business criteria and procedures of functional autonomy, competition, ...

  1. Incorporating concurrent engineering and design economics in a decision support system

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Pui Mun

    1993-01-01

    Concurrent engineering is a philosophy for improving design communication and aiding the process of recognizing and resolving design conflicts. Design economics is an integrated part of the concurrent engineering process, since cost-effective product design is at the root of many design conflicts. However, the bulk of research on concurrent engineering focuses on deriving better methods for coordinating both product and process designs with respect to functionality and manufact...

  2. A Multi—Criteria Decision Making Procedured for the Analysis of an Energy System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ming-ShanZhu; Bu-XuanWang; 等

    1992-01-01

    In the course of improving and/or designing an energy system,either purely economic criteria,although the overriding criteria,or purely energy-based criteria,although the emphasized criteria,can not separately handle real-world situations in a satisfactory manner,The econmic effectiveness and the energy efficiency must be considered simultaneously to demonstrate the confilicting and non-commensurable characteristics of these multiple criteria.An iterative and interactive approach to formulating and solving non-linear multi-criteria decision making problems for the analysis of an energy system is proposed.It allows the decision maker(DM) to learn from the available information and dymamically change his mind.Criterion functioins can be treated as objective functions,as constraints of as something in between by the DM.After a series of iterations and interactive procedures,a preferred solution can be made among the non-inferior sets considering thermodymamic criteria and economic creteria simultaneously,a simple example for design of a hest exchanger is used to illustrate the procedure.

  3. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators. PMID:24245524

  4. Economic Analysis of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. H. Inan

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available In this research, the management activities of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives’ Union were evaluated and revenues and costs required for economic analysis were calculated and profit and loss income statement was estimated for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. Data for Gross Margin Analysis were supplied from income and loss statement and thus Table comprising gross margins was formed covering all the activities of The Union.Gross Margin Analysis was made in order to determine economic performance of The Union by means of the data obtained from economic results of the operational activities in the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. The Union should develop its present activities so as to survive in the future. Therefore, suggestions were made for the expansion of the profitable activities and to improve nonprofitable activities in order to make them profitable.

  5. The effect of perceived regional accents on individual economic behavior: a lab experiment on linguistic performance, cognitive ratings and economic decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one's own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant's home region--the in-group opponent--, individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. PMID:25671607

  6. The Effect of Perceived Regional Accents on Individual Economic Behavior: A Lab Experiment on Linguistic Performance, Cognitive Ratings and Economic Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heblich, Stephan; Lameli, Alfred; Riener, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Does it matter if you speak with a regional accent? Speaking immediately reveals something of one’s own social and cultural identity, be it consciously or unconsciously. Perceiving accents involves not only reconstructing such imprints but also augmenting them with particular attitudes and stereotypes. Even though we know much about attitudes and stereotypes that are transmitted by, e.g. skin color, names or physical attractiveness, we do not yet have satisfactory answers how accent perception affects human behavior. How do people act in economically relevant contexts when they are confronted with regional accents? This paper reports a laboratory experiment where we address this question. Participants in our experiment conduct cognitive tests where they can choose to either cooperate or compete with a randomly matched male opponent identified only via his rendering of a standardized text in either a regional accent or standard accent. We find a strong connection between the linguistic performance and the cognitive rating of the opponent. When matched with an opponent who speaks the accent of the participant’s home region—the in-group opponent –, individuals tend to cooperate significantly more often. By contrast, they are more likely to compete when matched with an accent speaker from outside their home region, the out-group opponent. Our findings demonstrate, firstly, that the perception of an out-group accent leads not only to social discrimination but also influences economic decisions. Secondly, they suggest that this economic behavior is not necessarily attributable to the perception of a regional accent per se, but rather to the social rating of linguistic distance and the in-group/out-group perception it evokes. PMID:25671607

  7. The Role of Interpersonal Traits in Social Decision Making: Exploring Sources of Behavioral Heterogeneity in Economic Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Kun; Smillie, Luke D

    2015-08-01

    Economic games are well-established experimental paradigms for modeling social decision making. A large body of literature has pointed to the heterogeneity of behavior within many of these games, which might be partly explained by broad interpersonal trait dispositions. Using the Big Five and HEXACO (Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, eXtraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Openness to Experience) personality frameworks, we review the role of personality in two main classes of economic games: social dilemmas and bargaining games. This reveals an emerging role for Big Five agreeableness in promoting cooperative, egalitarian, and altruistic behaviors across several games, consistent with its core characteristic of maintaining harmonious interpersonal relations. The role for extraversion is less clear, which may reflect the divergent effects of its underlying agentic and affiliative motivational components. In addition, HEXACO honesty-humility and agreeableness may capture distinct aspects of prosocial behavior outside the bounds of the Five-Factor Model. Important considerations and directions for future studies are discussed within the emerging personality-economics interface.

  8. Image data integration and analysis for natural disaster decision support systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roper, William E.

    2001-06-01

    Natural disasters have a major impact, globally and within the United States causing injury and loss of life, as well as economic losses. To better address disaster response needs, a task force has been established to leverage technological capabilities to improve disaster response management. Web based geospatial analysis is one of these important capabilities. Samples of geospatial technologies applicable to disaster management are presented. These include 3D visualization, hyperspectral imagery, LIDAR, use of spectral libraries, digital multispectral video, radar imaging systems, photogeologic analysis and geographic information systems. An example scenario of a hurricane with landfall at Mobile, Alabama is used to demonstrate the interoperable use of web-based geospatial information to support decision support systems and assist public information communication.

  9. The Economic Analysis of Reversibility in the Radioactive Waste Disposal and the Real Options Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    current decision maker or future generations: this can be a new evaluation of the disposal process, the retrieval of radioactive waste if new information justifies it or continuation on the same path. Also for the economist, reversibility is a complex concept and its analysis cannot be separated from the opposite concept, namely irreversibility. In a first approach, an irreversible decision is a decision that irrevocably condemns the exploitation of new information and thus any adjustment in time. Conversely, a decision is reversible or less irreversible if the decision maker can integrate newly acquired information and thus revise different choices. A second possibility to study reversibility in economics refers to the different types of costs involved in the project. Thus the construction of a geological repository of radioactive waste is a specific investment which cannot be assigned to another use. In this situation the initial expenditure, typically called 'sunk cost', is irreversible. The degree of reversibility of costs is strongly linked with a complementary notion, flexibility. Indeed, if the alternative to 'recover' the original cost when unfavourable conditions exist, the opportunities created by different sources of flexibility give no additional value to the project. Since the 80's, the Real Options Theory is a modern approach used to better analyse issues of strategic decisions in domains with a high degree of uncertainty and an important dimension of temporality: natural resource exploration, energy industry, biodiversity, etc. At least two reasons explain the success of Real Option Theory. On the one hand, as mentioned above, it permits to take into account the dynamic feature of innovation, and more generally, the accumulation of information over time. The discount rate and distribution of future earnings are no longer the only central points of the evaluation. On the other hand, this theory comes within the scope of the theories of decision and basically

  10. The Economic Impact of Tourism. An Input-Output Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Camelia SURUGIU

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents an Input-Output Analysis for Romania, an important source of information for the investigation of the inter-relations existing among different industries. The Input-Output Analysis is used to determine the role and importance of different economic value added, incomes and employment and it analyses the existing connection in an economy. This paper is focused on tourism and the input-output analysis is finished for the Hotels and Restaurants Sector.

  11. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  12. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinz, Susanne; Gründer, Gerhard; Hilgers, Ralf D; Holtemöller, Oliver; Vernaleken, Ingo

    2014-01-01

    This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual's financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version). Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor "source of funding": students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships) had much higher rates of relative risk aversion (RRA) than subjects with support from family (ΔRRA = 0.22; p = 0.018). Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the intelligence quotient significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors "agreeableness" and "openness" showed moderate to modest - but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  13. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne ePrinz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  14. Understanding the Economics of Transportation Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Schultz, Grant G.; Searle, Jeremy E.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the economic impacts of transportation projects is essential for decision makers, officials, and stakeholders as they determine the best course of action for their jurisdiction. Economic impacts can guide decisions of future projects and help explain past economic fluctuations. This study uses an evaluative (ex-post) analysis process to assess the generative economic impacts of transportation projects after completion that can be used to identify the economic impacts of transpor...

  15. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  16. An Economic Analysis of Cell-Free DNA Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing in the US General Pregnancy Population

    OpenAIRE

    Benn, Peter; Curnow, Kirsten J.; Chapman, Steven; Michalopoulos, Steven N.; Hornberger, John; Rabinowitz, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Objective Analyze the economic value of replacing conventional fetal aneuploidy screening approaches with non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) in the general pregnancy population. Methods Using decision-analysis modeling, we compared conventional screening to NIPT with cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis in the annual US pregnancy population. Sensitivity and specificity for fetal aneuploidies, trisomy 21, trisomy 18, trisomy 13, and monosomy X, were estimated using published data and modeling of b...

  17. Innovative approaches to investment decisions substantiation in the sphere of agricultural land use on the base оf ecological and economic assessment of investment quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.S. Marekha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to elaborate innovative theoretical and methodological issues and practical recommendations concerning formation of ecological and economic assessment of investment quality, substantiation of investment decisions in the sphere of agricultural land use. The results of the analysis. The analysis of investment quality is undertaken in frames of the analysis of a category «investment». The author finds out that the category of «investment quality» can be investigated from economic and financial sides. From economic point of view, investments are regarded as expenditures on economic reproduction. From financial side, investments are considered as actives that are invested to the business activity in order to receive a profit. The author emphases that such twofold innovative approach can be taken as a principle for determining the category «investment quality». By the meaning of investment quality in agricultural land use one should understand a holistic characteristic of resource attributes that enable to satisfy investment demands in agriculture on the whole and to meet the interests of individual investors in particular. The author distinguishes investment strategies by the features of agricultural ecological and economic system and outlines the following ones: government strategy, banking strategy, self-investment strategy and foreign strategy. A set of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality is formed in the article. In authors’ opinion, the system of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality must include: optimal investment structure adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; the risk of investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; index of profitability of the investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor. For identification of the investment quality the researcher proposes to use additional indicator

  18. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis on Regional Economic Disparity of Northeast Economic Region in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Fei; Zhou Chenghu

    2009-01-01

    Popular regional inequality indexes such as variation coefficient and Gini coefficient can only reveal overall inequal-it),, and have limited ability in revealing spatial dependence or spatial agglomeration.Recently some methods of exploratory spatial data analysis such as spatial autocorrelation have provid-ed effective tools to analyze spatial agglomeration and cluster, which can reveal the pattern of regional inequality.This article attempts to use spatial autocorrelation at county level to get refined spatial pattern of regional disparity in Chinese northeast economic region over 2000-2006 (2001 absent).The result in-dicates that the basic trend of regional economy is an increasing concentration of growth among counties in northeast economic region, and there are two geographical clusters of poorer coun-ties including the counties in western Liaoning Province and adjacent counties in Inner Mongolia, poorer counties of Heihe, Qiqihar and Suihua in Heilongjiang Province.This article also reveals that we can use the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as the supplementary analysis methods in regional eco-nomic analysis.

  19. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  20. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of