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Sample records for economic decision analysis

  1. An economic analysis of the Maricopa decision.

    Goldberg, L G; Greenberg, W

    1987-01-01

    In Arizona v. Maricopa County Medical Society the United States Supreme Court ruled in a 4-3 decision that the Maricopa Foundation for Medical Care, a nonprofit Arizona corporation, had violated Section 1 of the Sherman Act by engaging in a maximum price-fixing scheme. The Supreme Court in this decision, however, failed to consider the economic impact of the Maricopa Foundation on the cost and quality of health care. The Court's adoption of a per se approach in Maricopa can have a negative impact upon the competition which the antitrust laws are attempting to promote. By focusing only on the narrow aspect of price fixing, the Court ignored (1) the potential of the Maricopa Foundation to contain costs, (2) the potential competitive effect that the foundation may have on third-party carriers and organizations in the marketplace, (3) the relationship of maximum price fixing to economic performance, and (4) the nature of competition in the health care marketplace. This article describes the background of Maricopa as well as the Supreme Court decision. It describes foundations for medical care with special emphasis on the Maricopa Foundation and analyzes Maricopa from an economic rather than the traditional legal perspective, emphasizing how the two perspectives might differ. Attention is paid to the concept of maximum price fixing in the health care marketplace. The concluding section evaluates the Supreme Court decision.

  2. Quntitative [i.e. Quantitative] analysis of risky decision making in economic environments

    Andraszewicz, Sandra

    2014-01-01

    Risky economic decisions play an important role in everyone's life. This dissertation presents mathematical approaches to the analysis of these decisions. It discusses how statistical measures can describe properties of choice options, and how these properties can be used to describe the decision context. Also, this dissertation includes a practical tutorial on a Bayesian approach to the hierarchical regression analysis in management science. Therefore, the combined dissertation presents math...

  3. A New Model for Decision Analysis in Economic Evaluations of Switchable Health Interventions

    Shekoufeh Nikfar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Tolerability is an essential part of drug therapy and can affect health and economic outcomes. Withdrawal due to adverse reactions of medicines or lack of effectiveness is a major concern in long-term treatments that influences cost-effectiveness analysis. In case of possibility of stopping and switch to other interventions in decision analysis model, overhead costing may affect results and decision-making processes. Thus, modifying of classic decision analysis model seems to be necessary in such cases. My hypothesis is that by the use of a new decision model that can make links between different Markov-like models accurate cost calculation could be achieved. The appearance of model is going to be like a semicycle net. Considering the probability of switching from one treatment strategy to another, one could give more precise economic evaluation results. In the first step, this model needs to be tested and compared with the conventional model. In the second step, the impact of these differences has to be examined in the practical field of health, drug policy and supply management. By applying this new decision model in total health budget, threshold and its consequences on national health accounts and share of health in gross domestic product should be tested.

  4. Ex post power economic analysis of record of decision operational restrictions at Glen Canyon Dam.

    Veselka, T. D.; Poch, L. A.; Palmer, C. S.; Loftin, S.; Osiek, B; Decision and Information Sciences; Western Area Power Administration

    2010-07-31

    On October 9, 1996, Bruce Babbitt, then-Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior signed the Record of Decision (ROD) on operating criteria for the Glen Canyon Dam (GCD). Criteria selected were based on the Modified Low Fluctuating Flow (MLFF) Alternative as described in the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River Storage Project, Arizona, Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) (Reclamation 1995). These restrictions reduced the operating flexibility of the hydroelectric power plant and therefore its economic value. The EIS provided impact information to support the ROD, including an analysis of operating criteria alternatives on power system economics. This ex post study reevaluates ROD power economic impacts and compares these results to the economic analysis performed prior (ex ante) to the ROD for the MLFF Alternative. On the basis of the methodology used in the ex ante analysis, anticipated annual economic impacts of the ROD were estimated to range from approximately $15.1 million to $44.2 million in terms of 1991 dollars ($1991). This ex post analysis incorporates historical events that took place between 1997 and 2005, including the evolution of power markets in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council as reflected in market prices for capacity and energy. Prompted by ROD operational restrictions, this analysis also incorporates a decision made by the Western Area Power Administration to modify commitments that it made to its customers. Simulated operations of GCD were based on the premise that hourly production patterns would maximize the economic value of the hydropower resource. On the basis of this assumption, it was estimated that economic impacts were on average $26.3 million in $1991, or $39 million in $2009.

  5. A Geospatial Cyberinfrastructure for Urban Economic Analysis and Spatial Decision-Making

    Michael F. Goodchild

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban economic modeling and effective spatial planning are critical tools towards achieving urban sustainability. However, in practice, many technical obstacles, such as information islands, poor documentation of data and lack of software platforms to facilitate virtual collaboration, are challenging the effectiveness of decision-making processes. In this paper, we report on our efforts to design and develop a geospatial cyberinfrastructure (GCI for urban economic analysis and simulation. This GCI provides an operational graphic user interface, built upon a service-oriented architecture to allow (1 widespread sharing and seamless integration of distributed geospatial data; (2 an effective way to address the uncertainty and positional errors encountered in fusing data from diverse sources; (3 the decomposition of complex planning questions into atomic spatial analysis tasks and the generation of a web service chain to tackle such complex problems; and (4 capturing and representing provenance of geospatial data to trace its flow in the modeling task. The Greater Los Angeles Region serves as the test bed. We expect this work to contribute to effective spatial policy analysis and decision-making through the adoption of advanced GCI and to broaden the application coverage of GCI to include urban economic simulations.

  6. Development of Decision Support Process for Building Energy Conservation Measures and Economic Analysis

    Bo-Eun Choi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available As policies for energy efficiency of buildings are being actively implemented, building energy performance improvement is urgently required. However, in Korea, information on measures and technologies for building energy efficiency is dispersed and concrete methods are not established, making it difficult to apply effective measures. Therefore, it is required to apply and evaluate energy efficiency measures through database construction integrating diverse information. In this study, the energy efficiency measures in the architectural sector that satisfy domestic legal standards are built. Because of the economic evaluation is necessary for the constructed alternatives, an economic efficiency database was established. The target building was set up, and energy efficiency measures were derived. In addition, a methodology that can induce energy efficient decision making of buildings was proposed, and the energy use evaluation and the economic analysis for each of the alternatives derived from applying the methodology to the target building were carried out. Furthermore, the optimal energy efficiency measures for the target building were suggested through the application of the decision-making process.

  7. Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

    Lemming, Gitte; Friis-Hansen, P.; Bjerg, Poul Løgstrup

    2010-01-01

    by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential...... environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations...... study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil...

  8. A multi-criteria decision analysis perspective on the health economic evaluation of medical interventions.

    Postmus, Douwe; Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Hillege, Hans L; Buskens, Erik

    2014-09-01

    A standard practice in health economic evaluation is to monetize health effects by assuming a certain societal willingness-to-pay per unit of health gain. Although the resulting net monetary benefit (NMB) is easy to compute, the use of a single willingness-to-pay threshold assumes expressibility of the health effects on a single non-monetary scale. To relax this assumption, this article proves that the NMB framework is a special case of the more general stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. Specifically, as SMAA does not restrict the number of criteria to two and also does not require the marginal rates of substitution to be constant, there are problem instances for which the use of this more general method may result in a better understanding of the trade-offs underlying the reimbursement decision-making problem. This is illustrated by applying both methods in a case study related to infertility treatment.

  9. Overview of the Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System

    Speck, D E

    2008-04-28

    The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies. The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA development was originally focused to support investigations into the economic and agricultural industry impacts associated with Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD outbreaks). However, it has been adapted to other FADs such has Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Classical Swine Fever (CSF) and Exotic Newcastle Disease (END). The MESA model is highly parameterized and employs an extensible architecture that permits straightforward addition of new component models (e.g., alternative disease spread approaches) when necessary. Since its inception, MESA has been developed with a requirement to enable simulation of the very large scale

  10. Techno-economic analysis and decision making for PHEV benefits to society, consumers, policymakers and automakers

    Al-Alawi, Baha Mohammed

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are an emerging automotive technology that has the capability to reduce transportation environmental impacts, but at an increased production cost. PHEVs can draw and store energy from an electric grid and consequently show reductions in petroleum consumption, air emissions, ownership costs, and regulation compliance costs, and various other externalities. Decision makers in the policy, consumer, and industry spheres would like to understand the impact of HEV and PHEV technologies on the U.S. vehicle fleets, but to date, only the disciplinary characteristics of PHEVs been considered. The multidisciplinary tradeoffs between vehicle energy sources, policy requirements, market conditions, consumer preferences and technology improvements are not well understood. For example, the results of recent studies have posited the importance of PHEVs to the future US vehicle fleet. No studies have considered the value of PHEVs to automakers and policy makers as a tool for achieving US corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards which are planned to double by 2030. Previous studies have demonstrated the cost and benefit of PHEVs but there is no study that comprehensively accounts for the cost and benefits of PHEV to consumers. The diffusion rate of hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) and PHEV technology into the marketplace has been estimated by existing studies using various tools and scenarios, but results show wide variations between studies. There is no comprehensive modeling study that combines policy, consumers, society and automakers in the U.S. new vehicle sales cost and benefits analysis. The aim of this research is to build a potential framework that can simulate and optimize the benefits of PHEVs for a multiplicity of stakeholders. This dissertation describes the results of modeling that integrates the effects of PHEV market penetration on policy, consumer and economic spheres. A model of fleet fuel economy and CAFE compliance for

  11. Advanced Economic Analysis

    Greenberg, Marc W.; Laing, William

    2013-01-01

    An Economic Analysis (EA) is a systematic approach to the problem of choosing the best method of allocating scarce resources to achieve a given objective. An EA helps guide decisions on the "worth" of pursuing an action that departs from status quo ... an EA is the crux of decision-support.

  12. Economic Decisions in Farm Animal Health

    Ettema, Jehan Frans; Kudahl, Anne Braad; Sørensen, Jan Tind

    informal workshops to exchange their knowledge and expertise in this field of science. This report contains the summary of the presentations given by 12 PhD students and 2 senior scientists of the Animal Health Economics workshops which was held on the 9th and 10th of November, 2006 at the Research Centre......Animal health economics deals with quantifying the economic effects of animal disease, decision support tools in animal health management and further analysis of the management's impact at animal, herd or national level. Scientists from The Netherlands, France and Sweden have since 1988 organised...... Foulum in Denmark. Different disciplines and approaches within Animal Health Economics are dealt with by the different scientists and the report contains a variety of novel results and projects. The resulting discussion is summarized in the report....

  13. INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

    GERMÁN LOBOS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in

  14. A conceptual approach for a quantitative economic analysis of farmers’ decision-making regarding animal welfare

    Gocsik, E.; Saatkamp, H.W.; Lauwere, de C.C.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Decisions related to animal welfare (AW) standards depend on farmer’s multiple goals and values and are constrained by a wide range of external and internal forces. The aim of this paper is twofold, i.e., (1) to develop a theoretical framework for farmers’ AW decisions that incorporates farmers’ goa

  15. Economic analysis

    None

    1980-06-01

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) mandated that minimum energy efficiency standards be established for classes of refrigerators and refrigerator-freezers, freezers, clothes dryers, water heaters, room air conditioners, home heating equipment, kitchen ranges and ovens, central air conditioners, and furnaces. EPCA requires that standards be designed to achieve the maximum improvement in energy efficiency that is technologically feasible and economically justified. Following the introductory chapter, Chapter Two describes the methodology used in the economic analysis and its relationship to legislative criteria for consumer product efficiency assessment; details how the CPES Value Model systematically compared and evaluated the economic impacts of regulation on the consumer, manufacturer and Nation. Chapter Three briefly displays the results of the analysis and lists the proposed performance standards by product class. Chapter Four describes the reasons for developing a baseline forecast, characterizes the baseline scenario from which regulatory impacts were calculated and summarizes the primary models, data sources and assumptions used in the baseline formulations. Chapter Five summarizes the methodology used to calculate regulatory impacts; describes the impacts of energy performance standards relative to the baseline discussed in Chapter Four. Also discussed are regional standards and other program alternatives to performance standards. Chapter Six describes the procedure for balancing consumer, manufacturer, and national impacts to select standard levels. Details of models and data bases used in the analysis are included in Appendices A through K.

  16. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY - DETERMINED ELEMENT IN INVESTMENT DECISION

    Claudia MUNGIU-PUPAZAN

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Economic activity of a country are conducted by industry, under branches and production sectors, each with special characteristics and conditions of work, which, of course, put their imprint on the organization manner of the production process By an analysis of the concept of economic efficiency of investment is found that this is an amount of qualitative factors, which gives the latter a complex character, aimed to improving activity in the area where are taking place to the putting into service of such investment, which can be modernization, bringing new equipments, reconstruction and development. Study the economic efficiency of investment involves, as a base, an analysis of causal factors that determine the decision in the afferent medium of risk. Corresponding to peculiarities of the production process, it requires a proper methodology of assessment the economic efficiency of investment, with specification to maintain the general principles for calculating the economic efficiency indicators and specific indicators come only to complete the picture of indicators of general, basic and supplementary already calculated in order to provide additional clues, afferent to branch, under-branch or sector of activity.

  17. Integrated agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis of BMPs to support decision making and policy design

    Maroy, E.; Rousseau, A. N.; Hallema, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    With recent efforts and increasing control over point source pollution of freshwater, agricultural non-point pollution sources have become responsible for most of sediment and nutrient loads in North American water systems. Environmental and agricultural agencies have recognised the need for reducing eutrophication and have developed various policies to compel or encourage producers to best management practices (BMPs). Addressing diffuse pollution is challenging considering the complex and cumulative nature of transport processes, high variability in space and time, and prohibitive costs of distributed water quality monitoring. Many policy options exist to push producers to adopt environmentally desirable behaviour while keeping their activity viable, and ensure equitable costs to consumers and tax payers. On the one hand, economic instruments (subsidies, taxes, water quality markets) are designed to maximize cost-effectiveness, so that farmers optimize their production for maximum profit while implementing BMPs. On the other hand, emission standards or regulation of inputs are often easier and less costly to implement. To study economic and environmental impacts of such policies, a distributed modelling approach is needed to deal with the complexity of the system and the large environmental and socio-economic data requirements. Our objective is to integrate agro-hydrological modelling and economic analysis to support decision and policy making processes of BMP implementation. The integrated modelling system GIBSI was developed in an earlier study within the Canadian WEBs project (Watershed Evaluation of BMPs) to evaluate the influence of BMPs on water quality. The case study involved 30 and 15 year records of discharge and water quality measurements respectively, in the Beaurivage River watershed (Quebec, Canada). GIBSI provided a risk-based overview of the impact of BMPs (including vegetated riparian buffer strips, precision slurry application, conversion to

  18. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  19. An economic analysis of usual care and acupuncture collaborative treatment on chronic low back pain: A Markov model decision analysis

    Lee Taejin

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The collaborative treatment of acupuncture in addition to routine care as an approach for the management of low back pain (LBP is receiving increasing recognition from both public and professional arenas. In 2010, the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Family Affairs (MOHW of South Korea approved the practice of doctors and Oriental medical doctors (acupuncture qualified working together in the same facility and offering collaborative treatment at the same time for the same disease. However, there is little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of this current practice. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine the effectiveness and costs of acupuncture in addition to routine care in the treatment of chronic LBP patients in South Korea. Methods The Markov model was developed to synthesise evidence on both costs and outcomes for patients with chronic LBP. We conducted the base case analysis, univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, and also performed the value of information analysis for future researches. Model parameters were sourced from systematic review of both alternatives, simple bibliographic reviews of relevant articles published in English or Korean, and statistical analyses of the 2005 and 2007 Korean National Health and Nutrition Survey (KNHNS data. The analyses were based on the societal perspective over a five year time horizon using a 5% discount rate. Results In the base case, collaborative treatment resulted in better outcomes, but at a relatively high cost. Overall, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a collaborative practice was 3,421,394 KRW (Korean rate Won per QALY (Quality adjusted life year (2,895.80 USD per QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis of indirect non-medical costs did not affect the preference order of the strategies. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that if the threshold was over 3,260,000 KRW per QALY (2,759.20 USD per QALY

  20. The management of an endodontically abscessed tooth: patient health state utility, decision-tree and economic analysis

    Shepperd Sasha

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A frequent encounter in clinical practice is the middle-aged adult patient complaining of a toothache caused by the spread of a carious infection into the tooth's endodontic complex. Decisions about the range of treatment options (conventional crown with a post and core technique (CC, a single tooth implant (STI, a conventional dental bridge (CDB, and a partial removable denture (RPD have to balance the prognosis, utility and cost. Little is know about the utility patients attach to the different treatment options for an endontically abscessed mandibular molar and maxillary incisor. We measured patients' dental-health-state utilities and ranking preferences of the treatment options for these dental problems. Methods Forty school teachers ranked their preferences for conventional crown with a post and core technique, a single tooth implant, a conventional dental bridge, and a partial removable denture using a standard gamble and willingness to pay. Data previously reported on treatment prognosis and direct "out-of-pocket" costs were used in a decision-tree and economic analysis Results The Standard Gamble utilities for the restoration of a mandibular 1st molar with either the conventional crown (CC, single-tooth-implant (STI, conventional dental bridge (CDB or removable-partial-denture (RPD were 74.47 [± 6.91], 78.60 [± 5.19], 76.22 [± 5.78], 64.80 [± 8.1] respectively (p The standard gamble utilities for the restoration of a maxillary central incisor with a CC, STI, CDB and RPD were 88.50 [± 6.12], 90.68 [± 3.41], 89.78 [± 3.81] and 91.10 [± 3.57] respectively (p > 0.05. Their respective willingness-to-pay ($CDN were: 1,782.05 [± 361.42], 1,871.79 [± 349.44], 1,605.13 [± 348.10] and 1,351.28 [± 368.62]. A statistical difference was found between the utility of treating a maxillary central incisor and mandibular 1st-molar (p The expected-utility-value for a 5-year prosthetic survival was highest for the CDB and the

  1. Ethics in economic decision-making

    Leliveld, Marijke Christina

    2009-01-01

    This dissertation sheds more light on ethics in economic decision-making. Over the course of nine experiments, I studied (a) when people adhere to ethical standards like the do-no-harm principle, and (b) how people respond to situations in which ethical standards are violated by studying not only pu

  2. Life and Death Decision Analysis.

    1979-12-01

    LIFE SMOKING: CANCER, EMPHYSEMA, SHORTENED LIFE BATHING: FALLING, ELECTROCUTION CONTRACEPTION: DEATH , ILLNESS PREGNANCY: DEATH , ILLNESS ABORTION ...economic effect is the one with the highest probability of causing my death . -13- EXPECTED NET SYSTEM DESIGN BENEFIT TO ME DEATH DEATH (r A(excluding death ...0-AO81 424 STANFORD UNIV CALIF DEPT OF ENGtNEERING-ECONOM!C SYSTEMS F/6 12/1 LIFE ANDI DEATH DECISION ANALYSIS.CU) DEC 79 R A HOWARD N0OOIN-79-C-0036

  3. Understanding consumer decisions using behavioral economics.

    Zandstra, Elizabeth H; Miyapuram, Krishna P; Tobler, Philippe N

    2013-01-01

    Consumers make many decisions in everyday life involving finances, food, and health. It is known from behavioral economics research that people are often driven by short-term gratification, that is, people tend to choose the immediate, albeit smaller reward. But choosing the delayed reward, that is, delaying the gratification, can actually be beneficial. How can we motivate consumers to resist the "now" and invest in their future, leading to sustainable or healthy habits? We review recent developments from behavioral and neuroimaging studies that are relevant for understanding consumer decisions. Further, we present results from our field research that examined whether we can increase the perceived value of a (delayed) environmental benefit using tailored communication, that is, change the way it is framed. More specifically, we investigated whether we can boost the value of an abstract, long-term "green" claim of a product by expressing it as a concrete, short-term benefit. This is a new application area for behavioral economics.

  4. INFORMATION AND STRATEGIC DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC ENTITIES MANAGEMENT

    LUCIAN IOAN SABĂU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Information and decision are two key elements economic entities management. Information represents the support of decision making by those managing the economic entity, helping them take the right decision for them to achieve set objectives. Strategic decisions provide long-term success of the economic entity outlining its internal and external stand. Those responsible for making strategic decisions have the ability to influence the economic entity’s success through these decisions they take, the role of the strategy being to ensure perfect correspondence between what the economic entity can do and what it could do, given the opportunities and threats in the environment they conduct business.

  5. The economic valuation of improved process plant decision support technology.

    White, Douglas C

    2007-06-01

    How can investments that would potentially improve a manufacturing plant's decision process be economically justified? What is the value of "better information," "more flexibility," or "improved integration" and the technologies that provide these effects? Technology investments such as improved process modelling, new real time historians and other databases, "smart" instrumentation, better data analysis and visualization software, and/or improved user interfaces often include these benefits as part of their valuation. How are these "soft" benefits to be converted to a quantitative economic return? Quantification is important if rational management decisions are to be made about the correct amount of money to invest in the technologies, and which technologies to choose among the many available ones. Modelling the plant operational decision cycle-detect, analyse, forecast, choose and implement--provides a basis for this economic quantification. In this paper a new economic model is proposed for estimation of the value of decision support investments based on their effect upon the uncertainty in forecasting plant financial performance. This model leads to quantitative benefit estimates that have a realistic financial basis. An example is presented demonstrating the application of the method.

  6. Economic Evaluation of Environmental Health Interventions to Support Decision Making

    Guy Hutton

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental burden of disease represents one quarter of overall disease burden, hence necessitating greater attention from decision makers both inside and outside the health sector. Economic evaluation techniques such as cost- effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis provide key information to health decision makers on the efficiency of environmental health interventions, assisting them in choosing interventions which give the greatest social return on limited public budgets and private resources. The aim of this article is to review economic evaluation studies in three environmental health areas—water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH, vector control, and air pollution—and to critically examine the policy relevance and scientific quality of the studies for selecting and funding public programmers. A keyword search of Medline from 1990–2008 revealed 32 studies, and gathering of articles from other sources revealed a further 18 studies, giving a total of 50 economic evaluation studies (13 WSH interventions, 16 vector control and 21 air pollution. Overall, the economic evidence base on environmental health interventions remains relatively weak—too few studies per intervention, of variable scientific quality and from diverse locations which limits generalisability of findings. Importantly, there still exists a disconnect between economic research, decision making and programmer implementation. This can be explained by the lack of translation of research findings into accessible documentation for policy makers and limited relevance of research findings, and the often low importance of economic evidence in budgeting decisions. These findings underline the importance of involving policy makers in the defining of research agendas and commissioning of research, and improving the awareness of researchers of the policy environment into which their research feeds.

  7. Multicriteria and multiagent decision making with applications to economics and social sciences

    Maturo, Antonio; Hošková-Mayerová, Šárka; Kacprzyk, Janusz

    2013-01-01

    The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision making and decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributions included in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studies and research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of these studies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior of groups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economic importance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards and achieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertain and fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields, such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity, psychology, sociology and economics. A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making and decision analysis in the areas of economics and the social ...

  8. Oil field decision analysis based on technical-economic indicators; Analise de decisao baseada em indicadores tecnico-economicos para um campo petrolifero

    Ravagnani, Ana Teresa Gaspar; Munoz Mazo, Eduin; Schiozer, Denis [Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), SP (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia de Petroleo. Lab. de Simulacao de Fluxo em Meios Porosos (UNISIM)

    2008-07-01

    This work presents a case study consisting of a synthetic offshore field in deep water and 28 deg API oil representing a gas solution model with water injection without gas cap. Several alternatives of strategies are proposed, regarding different configurations and number of wells, besides different limits of injection and production rates, as well as, completion layers. The objective is to show that different strategies can be obtained according to the indicator chosen by the decision maker. Even when the Net Present Value (NPV) is a very used indicator in the investment analysis, with the utilization of other technical-economical indicators, other investment alternatives different from those proposed when just VPL is utilized, can become feasible. Additionally, other aspects are analyzed, such as the possibility of changes in the production capacity with other oil prices levels. It is also proposed the production strategy optimization in this work, changing the time of production and the injection/production rate limits. (author)

  9. Designing a decision support system for marine reserves management: an economic analysis for the Dutch North Sea

    Ding, Hongyu; Ruijs, A.J.W.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2007-01-01

    The authors explore how a Decision Support System (DSS) for managing the marine environment can be set up. They use the Driving force-Pressure-State- Impact-Respond (DPSIR) framework to analyze which are the major driving forces impacting upon the marine environment in the North Sea. Moreover, a num

  10. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  11. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  12. Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

    Resta, Marina

    2016-01-01

    The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

  13. Teaching the Tools of Pharmaceutical Care Decision-Analysis.

    Rittenhouse, Brian E.

    1994-01-01

    A method of decision-analysis in pharmaceutical care that integrates epidemiology and economics is presented, including an example illustrating both the deceptive nature of medical decision making and the power of decision analysis. Principles in determining both general and specific probabilities of interest and use of decision trees for…

  14. Stochastic decision analysis

    Lacksonen, Thomas A.

    1994-01-01

    Small space flight project design at NASA Langley Research Center goes through a multi-phase process from preliminary analysis to flight operations. The process insures that each system achieves its technical objectives with demonstrated quality and within planned budgets and schedules. A key technical component of early phases is decision analysis, which is a structure procedure for determining the best of a number of feasible concepts based upon project objectives. Feasible system concepts are generated by the designers and analyzed for schedule, cost, risk, and technical measures. Each performance measure value is normalized between the best and worst values and a weighted average score of all measures is calculated for each concept. The concept(s) with the highest scores are retained, while others are eliminated from further analysis. This project automated and enhanced the decision analysis process. Automation of the decision analysis process was done by creating a user-friendly, menu-driven, spreadsheet macro based decision analysis software program. The program contains data entry dialog boxes, automated data and output report generation, and automated output chart generation. The enhancements to the decision analysis process permit stochastic data entry and analysis. Rather than enter single measure values, the designers enter the range and most likely value for each measure and concept. The data can be entered at the system or subsystem level. System level data can be calculated as either sum, maximum, or product functions of the subsystem data. For each concept, the probability distributions are approximated for each measure and the total score for each concept as either constant, triangular, normal, or log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, formulas are derived for the probability that the concept meets any given constraint, the probability that the concept meets all constraints, and the probability that the concept is within a given

  15. Investor decisions through the lens of behavioral economics

    David S. Murphy

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Traditional economic theory postulates that people are rational. This implies that people make decisions to maximize their utility functions and to do this, that they have fully and correctly evaluated their preferences and limitations. Behavioral economics recognizes that this is not always true, that sometimes information is incomplete. This article is examines some of the effects of behavioral economics (which come largely from cognitive psychology in decision-making by investors in the stock exchanges.

  16. The role of behavioral economics and behavioral decision making in Americans' retirement savings decisions.

    Knoll, Melissa A Z

    2010-01-01

    Traditional economic theory posits that people make decisions by maximizing a utility function in which all of the relevant constraints and preferences are included and weighed appropriately. Behavioral economists and decision-making researchers, however, are interested in how people make decisions in the face of incomplete information, limited cognitive resources, and decision biases. Empirical findings in the areas of behavioral economics and judgment and decision making (JDM) demonstrate departures from the notion that man is economically rational, illustrating instead that people often act in ways that are economically suboptimal. This article outlines findings from the JDM and behavioral-economics literatures that highlight the many behavioral impediments to saving that individuals may encounter on their way to financial security. I discuss how behavioral and psychological issues, such as self-control, emotions, and choice architecture can help policymakers understand what factors, aside from purely economic ones, may affect individuals' savings behavior.

  17. Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

    Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

  18. The influence of promotional activities on the economic decision making

    Aslı Öztopcu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Behavioral economics is one of the sub-disciplines discussed through the process of economic thought. It studies the economic decisions of the individuals under the influence of social, emotional and cognitive factors. According to the rational behavior theory in economics, it is discussed that, the individuals may show irrational behaviors in spite of the expectation of rational behaviors. Economics is a human focused social science. The studies held, illustrate that the human behaviors have to be evaluated with the psychological factors.  The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of sales efforts of the drug firms on the economic decision making. The data gathered by the questionnaire show that the marketing strategies influence the decision making behavior of individuals.

  19. Computational methods in decision-making, economics and finance

    Rustem, Berc; Siokos, Stavros

    2002-01-01

    Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models The chapters are organized in two parts optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria

  20. Weather forecasts, users' economic expenses and decision strategies

    Carter, G. M.

    1972-01-01

    Differing decision models and operational characteristics affecting the economic expenses (i.e., the costs of protection and losses suffered if no protective measures have been taken) associated with the use of predictive weather information have been examined.

  1. 装甲装备高新技术系统维修方案决策经济性分析%Economic Analysis of Maintenance Plan Decision Making for High Tech System of Armored Equipment

    张晓峰

    2015-01-01

    针对装甲装备高新技术系统维修过程中维修方案决策的经济性分析仍缺乏有效方法的现状,本文以实际维修的三级结构出发进行了经济性分析。首先分析了可行决策的描述方式和决策事件,然后建立了费用估算模型,并结合装甲装备火控系统的维修进行了实例分析,结果表明,本文提出的维修方案决策的经济性分析方法合理有效。%In view of the economic analysis of maintenance plan decision making in the maintenance process of the high tech system of armored equipment, this paper carries out the economic analysis on the three level structure of the actual maintenance. Firstly, the description method and decision event of feasible decision are analyzed, then the cost estimation model is established. An example analysis of the maintenance of the fire control system of armored equipment is carried out, and the results show that the method of economic analysis of maintenance plan decision is reasonable and effective.

  2. Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Make Complex Decisions

    2014-10-14

    Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Make Complex Decisions A Presentation Highlighting the Capabilities of the...REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to...Language (SQL) server-based approach. • The concept of a server-based algorithm follows empirical research on Bayesian belief networks (BBN) and

  3. Decision Analysis Technique

    Hammad Dabo Baba

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

  4. Economic Analysis of Ransomware

    Hernandez-Castro, Julio; Cartwright, Edward; Stepanova, Anna

    2017-01-01

    We present in this work an economic analysis of ransomware, with relevant data from Cryptolocker, CryptoWall, TeslaCrypt and other major strands. We include a detailed study of the impact that different price discrimination strategies can have on the success of a ransomware family, examining uniform pricing, optimal price discrimination and bargaining strategies and analysing their advantages and limitations. In addition, we present results of a preliminary survey that can helps in estimating...

  5. Web-Based Group Decision Support System: an Economic Application

    Ion ISTUDOR

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Decision Support Systems (DSS form a specific class of computerized information systems that support business and managerial decision-making activities. Making the right decision in business primarily depends on the quality of data. It also depends on the ability to analyze the data with a view to identifying trends that can suggest solutions and strategies. A “cooperative” decision support system means the data are collected, analyzed and then provided to a human agent who can help the system to revise or refine the data. It means that both a human component and computer component work together to come up with the best solution. This paper describes the usage of a software product (Vanguard System to a specific economic application (evaluating the financial risk assuming that the rate of the economic profitability can be under the value of the interest rate.

  6. CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS FOR SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The real facts presented in this article, demonstrate the great importance in today's world of strategic management, methods of analyses of innovations and investments and the role of the theory of decision-making in these economic disciplines. We have given the retrospective analysis of the development of nuclear physics research. For the development of fundamental and applied science in the second half of the twentieth century, we had a very great importance of the two events: the decision of US President Roosevelt to deploy nuclear program (adopted in response to a letter from Einstein and the coincidence in time between the completion of the construction of nuclear bomb and the end of World War II. The nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has determined the developments in science and technology for the entire second half of the twentieth century. For the first time in the entire history of the world the leaders of the leading countries clearly seen that fundamental research can bring great practical benefit (from the point of view of the leaders of countries. Namely, they can give the brand new super-powerful weapon. The consequence was a broad organizational and financial support of fundamental and deriving from them applied research. Is analyzed the influence of fundamental and applied research on the development and effective use of new technology and technical progress. We consider the development of mathematical methods of research and information technology, in particular, the myth of "artificial intelligence"

  7. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation.

  8. Pathological gambling in Parkinson's disease: subthalamic oscillations during economics decisions.

    Rosa, Manuela; Fumagalli, Manuela; Giannicola, Gaia; Marceglia, Sara; Lucchiari, Claudio; Servello, Domenico; Franzini, Angelo; Pacchetti, Claudio; Romito, Luigi; Albanese, Alberto; Porta, Mauro; Pravettoni, Gabriella; Priori, Alberto

    2013-10-01

    Pathological gambling develops in up to 8% of patients with Parkinson's disease. Although the pathophysiology of gambling remains unclear, several findings argue for a dysfunction in the basal ganglia circuits. To clarify the role of the subthalamic nucleus in pathological gambling, we studied its activity during economics decisions. We analyzed local field potentials recorded from deep brain stimulation electrodes in the subthalamic nucleus while parkinsonian patients with (n = 8) and without (n = 9) pathological gambling engaged in an economics decision-making task comprising conflictual trials (involving possible risk-taking) and non conflictual trials. In all parkinsonian patients, subthalamic low frequencies (2-12 Hz) increased during economics decisions. Whereas, in patients without gambling, low-frequency oscillations exhibited a similar pattern during conflictual and non conflictual stimuli, in those with gambling, low-frequency activity increased significantly more during conflictual than during non conflictual stimuli. The specific low-frequency oscillatory pattern recorded in patients with Parkinson's disease who gamble could reflect a subthalamic dysfunction that makes their decisional threshold highly sensitive to risky options. When parkinsonian patients process stimuli related to an economics task, low-frequency subthalamic activity increases. This task-related change suggests that the cognitive-affective system that drives economics decisional processes includes the subthalamic nucleus. The specific subthalamic neuronal activity during conflictual decisions in patients with pathological gambling supports the idea that the subthalamic nucleus is involved in behavioral strategies and in the pathophysiology of gambling.

  9. Introduction to health economics and decision-making: Is economics relevant for the frontline clinician?

    Goeree, Ron; Diaby, Vakaramoko

    2013-12-01

    In a climate of escalating demands for new health care services and significant constraints on new resources, the disciplines of health economics and health technology assessment (HTA) have increasingly been turned to as explicit evidence-based frameworks to help make tough health care access and reimbursement decisions. Health economics is the discipline of economics concerned with the efficient allocation of health care resources, essentially trying to maximize health benefits to society contingent upon available resources. HTA is a broader field drawing upon several disciplines, but which relies heavily upon the tools of health economics and economic evaluation. Traditionally, health economics and economic evaluation have been widely used at the political (macro) and local (meso) decision-making levels, and have progressively had an important role even at informing individual clinical decisions (micro level). The aim of this paper is to introduce readers to health economics and discuss its relevance to frontline clinicians. Particularly, the content of the paper will facilitate clinicians' understanding of the link between economics and their medical practice, and how clinical decision-making reflects on health care resource allocation.

  10. Cognitive Fatigue Destabilizes Economic Decision Making Preferences and Strategies.

    O'Dhaniel A Mullette-Gillman

    Full Text Available It is common for individuals to engage in taxing cognitive activity for prolonged periods of time, resulting in cognitive fatigue that has the potential to produce significant effects in behaviour and decision making. We sought to examine whether cognitive fatigue modulates economic decision making.We employed a between-subject manipulation design, inducing fatigue through 60 to 90 minutes of taxing cognitive engagement against a control group that watched relaxing videos for a matched period of time. Both before and after the manipulation, participants engaged in two economic decision making tasks (one for gains and one for losses. The analyses focused on two areas of economic decision making--preferences and choice strategies. Uncertainty preferences (risk and ambiguity were quantified as premium values, defined as the degree and direction in which participants alter the valuation of the gamble in comparison to the certain option. The strategies that each participant engaged in were quantified through a choice strategy metric, which contrasts the degree to which choice behaviour relies upon available satisficing or maximizing information. We separately examined these metrics for alterations within both the gains and losses domains, through the two choice tasks.The fatigue manipulation resulted in significantly greater levels of reported subjective fatigue, with correspondingly higher levels of reported effort during the cognitively taxing activity. Cognitive fatigue did not alter uncertainty preferences (risk or ambiguity or informational strategies, in either the gains or losses domains. Rather, cognitive fatigue resulted in greater test-retest variability across most of our economic measures. These results indicate that cognitive fatigue destabilizes economic decision making, resulting in inconsistent preferences and informational strategies that may significantly reduce decision quality.

  11. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Mkael Symmonds

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that

  12. Are economic evaluations an important tool in vaccine policy decisions?

    Jacobs, Philip

    2011-10-01

    In the 1980s, drug prices began rising considerably worldwide, and in the 1990s, countries began incorporating health economics into the scientific review process. Rising prices in vaccines began around the year 2000 and national bodies began to use health economics to review vaccines in the next decade. Health economics is a discipline that evaluates alternative interventions, balancing costs and health outcomes. There are characteristics of infectious diseases that differ from other illnesses, most notably the herd effect. We reviewed the role of economics in conducting vaccine scientific reviews. We conclude that health economics can move some of the considerations in vaccine policy decision-making from the political to the scientific arena, but there are still many unresolved issues. Health economists will continue to address these issues in the coming years, but there will always be a need for a separate policy review.

  13. A Stochastic Decision Support System for Economic Order Quantity Problem

    Amir Yousefli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Improving decisions efficiency is one of the major concerns of the decision support systems. Specially in the uncertain environment, decision support systems could be implemented efficiently to simplify decision making process. In this paper stochastic economic order quantity (EOQ problem is investigated in which decision variables and objective function are uncertain in nature and optimum probability distribution functions of them are calculated through a geometric programming model. Obtained probability distribution functions of the decision variables and the objective function are used as optimum knowledge to design a new probabilistic rule base (PRB as a decision support system for EOQ model. The developed PRB is a new type of the stochastic rule bases that can be used to infer optimum or near optimum values of the decision variables and the objective function of the EOQ model without solving the geometric programming problem directly. Comparison between the results of the developed PRB and the optimum solutions which is provided in the numerical example illustrates the efficiency of the developed PRB.

  14. Decision support tools with an economic flavor

    Bomber, T.M.; Baxter, J.

    1997-10-01

    This paper discusses criteria for selecting analytical support tools for manufacturing engineering in the early phases of product development, and the lessons learned at Sandia National Laboratories in selecting and applying these tools. The IPPD (Integrated Product and Process Design) process requires manufacturing process developers to be involved earlier than ever before in product development. Operating in an IPPD environment, Sandia`s manufacturing engineers were required to develop early estimates of the cost and performance of manufacturing plans. In early pre-production, there are very little actual data on manufacturing processes and almost no detailed data on the performance of various manufacturing process steps. The manufacturing engineer needs the capability to analyze various manufacturing process flows over a large set of assumptions involving capacity, resource requirements (equipment, labor, material, utilities,...), yields, product designs, etc. If the manufacturing process involves many process steps, or if there are multiple products in a single manufacturing area that share resources, or there are multiple part starts resulting in merged flow for final assembly, then this analysis capability must somehow be mechanized. This situation led them to look to modeling and simulation tools for a solution. Example analyses of manufacturing issues for two product sets in the early phases of product development are presented.

  15. IDEAL trial: economic analysis

    Simona de Portu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the IDEAL (“High-dose atorvastatin vs usual-dose simvastatin for secondary prevention after myocardial infarction” study was carried out to compare intensive lowering of low-density lipoprotein (LDL-cholesterol using the highest recommended dose of atorvastatin 80 mg with simvastatin 20 mg. Aim: our aim was to investigate the economic consequence of high dose of atorvastatin vs usual-dose of simvastatin in reducing major coronary events in patients with a history of acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Methods: the analysis is based on clinical outcome data from the IDEAL study. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing high dose of atorvastatin (80 mg/die versus usual-dose of simvastatin (20 mg/die in the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. We identified and quantified medical costs: drug costs according to the Italian National Therapeutic Formulary and hospitalizations were quantified based on the Italian National Health Service tariffs (2008. Effects were measured in terms of morbidity reduction (frequency of hospitalizations. We considered an observation period of 4.8 years. The costs borne after the first 12 months were discounted using an annual rate of 3%. We conducted one and multi-way sensitivity analyses on unit cost and effectiveness. Results: the cost of atorvastatin therapy over the 4.8 years period amounted to approximately 2.4 millions euro per 1,000 patients. The total cost of atorvastatin high dose was about 3.9 millions euro, the incremental cost per patient free from event is 31.176,03 euro. Discussion: this evaluation found that atorvastatin therapy is cost-effective. Results were sensitive to either clinical or economic variables.

  16. Real analysis with economic applications

    Ok, Efe A

    2011-01-01

    There are many mathematics textbooks on real analysis, but they focus on topics not readily helpful for studying economic theory or they are inaccessible to most graduate students of economics. Real Analysis with Economic Applications aims to fill this gap by providing an ideal textbook and reference on real analysis tailored specifically to the concerns of such students. The emphasis throughout is on topics directly relevant to economic theory. In addition to addressing the usual topics of real analysis, this book discusses the elements of order theory, convex analysis, optimizatio

  17. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; perry, C.J.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa;

  18. Remote Sensing and Economic Indicators for Supporting Water Resources Management Decisions

    Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Soppe, R.; Perry, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that combining spatial land surface data with socio-economic analysis provides a number of indicators to strengthen decision making in integrated water and environmental management. It provides a basis to: track current water consumption in the Inkomati Basin in South-Africa;

  19. THE ROLE OF BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS IN EXPLAINING CONSUMPTION DECISION

    Mihaela Andreea STROE

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The new economic approach starts from the idea that the individual does not need food, but feels the need to feed, or do not require newspapers, but feels the need of information. In this way, those who changes are not human preferences, but the way we satisfy them. At this stage of the paper, we explain the inconsistency in consumer preferences and the exceptions to the standard theory by making light upon what is called in behavioral economics: the effects of property, loss aversion and framing effects. In which concerns the standard economic model, it seems that there are discrepancies between objective measures of sources of comfort / discomfort and measures reported subjective sensations. Many defenders of classical model would argue that the measures are not reported subjective feelings of economic phenomena and therefore are not of interest to economists. However, when such feelings and sensations affect or may affect future decisions, things become relevant for the economy. Limited Rationality implies both that the agent is imperfectly informed decision-making in a complex and dynamic environment, and a limited ability processing.

  20. Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

    Kalwij, A.S.

    1999-01-01

    This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that high

  1. FINANCIAL INFORMATION, EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION ON ECONOMIC DECISION

    TAK ISA

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial information has, indisputably, an important effect in economics. To form an effective capital market, financial information must be reliable and accurate. Misleading financial information always has a negative impact on economic decision taken by users. It is known that financial information as the cornerstone of financial markets, can improve economic performance in several ways. Nowadays we are facing economic crisis due to irregularities of presentation of financial statements to users. Misunderstandings cause economic recession. Detection of fraudulent financial information, is an important issue facing the auditing profession. Currently, bankruptcy of companies around the world, leaves millions of people without jobs, this is caused by financial information which is manipulated by companies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of errors and manipulation committed in the financial information sector on the real economy. Also one of the purposes of this paper is to analyze error and fraud in financial statements how it effects the real economy and the reasons for committing fraud in financial statements. Also, several suggestions are included in this study about actions that can be taken to prevent errors and manipulation in financial information.

  2. An economic theory of patient decision-making.

    Stewart, Douglas O; DeMarco, Joseph P

    2005-01-01

    Patient autonomy, as exercised in the informed consent process, is a central concern in bioethics. The typical bioethicist's analysis of autonomy centers on decisional capacity--finding the line between autonomy and its absence. This approach leaves unexplored the structure of reasoning behind patient treatment decisions. To counter that approach, we present a microeconomic theory of patient decision-making regarding the acceptable level of medical treatment from the patient's perspective. We show that a rational patient's desired treatment level typically departs from the level yielding an absence of symptoms, the level we call ideal. This microeconomic theory demonstrates why patients have good reason not to pursue treatment to the point of absence of physical symptoms. We defend our view against possible objections that it is unrealistic and that it fails to adequately consider harm a patient may suffer by curtailing treatment. Our analysis is fruitful in various ways. It shows why decisions often considered unreasonable might be fully reasonable. It offers a theoretical account of how physician misinformation may adversely affect a patient's decision. It shows how billing costs influence patient decision-making. It indicates that health care professionals' beliefs about the 'unreasonable' attitudes of patients might often be wrong. It provides a better understanding of patient rationality that should help to ensure fuller information as well as increased respect for patient decision-making.

  3. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  4. [Rational drug use: an economic approach to decision making].

    Mota, Daniel Marques; da Silva, Marcelo Gurgel Carlos; Sudo, Elisa Cazue; Ortún, Vicente

    2008-04-01

    The present article approaches rational drug use (RDU) from the economical point of view. The implementation of RDU implies in costs and involves acquisition of knowledge and behavioral changes of several agents. The difficulties in implementing RDU may be due to shortage problems, information asymmetry, lack of information, uncertain clinical decisions, externalities, time-price, incentives for drug prescribers and dispensers, drug prescriber preferences and marginal utility. Health authorities, among other agencies, must therefore regularize, rationalize and control drug use to minimize inefficiency in pharmaceutical care and to prevent exposing the population to unnecessary health risks.

  5. Enhanced decision support for policy makers using a web interface to health-economic models - Illustrated with a cost-effectiveness analysis of nation-wide infant vaccination with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the Netherlands

    Hubben, G.A.A.; Bos, J.M.; Glynn, D.M.; van der Ende, A.; van Alphen, L.; Postma, M.J.

    2007-01-01

    We have developed a web-based user-interface (web interface) to enhance the usefulness of health-economic evaluations to support decision making (http://pcv.healtheconomics.nl). It allows the user to interact with a health-economic model to evaluate predefined and customized scenarios and perform se

  6. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  7. Economic irrationality is optimal during noisy decision making.

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Moran, Rani; Moreland, James; Chater, Nick; Usher, Marius; Summerfield, Christopher

    2016-03-15

    According to normative theories, reward-maximizing agents should have consistent preferences. Thus, when faced with alternatives A, B, and C, an individual preferring A to B and B to C should prefer A to C. However, it has been widely argued that humans can incur losses by violating this axiom of transitivity, despite strong evolutionary pressure for reward-maximizing choices. Here, adopting a biologically plausible computational framework, we show that intransitive (and thus economically irrational) choices paradoxically improve accuracy (and subsequent economic rewards) when decision formation is corrupted by internal neural noise. Over three experiments, we show that humans accumulate evidence over time using a "selective integration" policy that discards information about alternatives with momentarily lower value. This policy predicts violations of the axiom of transitivity when three equally valued alternatives differ circularly in their number of winning samples. We confirm this prediction in a fourth experiment reporting significant violations of weak stochastic transitivity in human observers. Crucially, we show that relying on selective integration protects choices against "late" noise that otherwise corrupts decision formation beyond the sensory stage. Indeed, we report that individuals with higher late noise relied more strongly on selective integration. These findings suggest that violations of rational choice theory reflect adaptive computations that have evolved in response to irreducible noise during neural information processing.

  8. Economic Analysis of Nuclear Energy

    Lee, Man Ki; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Oh, K. B

    2006-12-15

    It has been well recognized that securing economic viabilities along with technologies are very important elements in the successful implementation of nuclear R and D projects. The objective of the Project is to help nuclear energy to be utilized in an efficient way by analyzing major issues related with nuclear economics. The study covers following subjects: the role of nuclear in the future electric supply system, economic analysis of nuclear R and D project, contribution to the regional economy from nuclear power. In addition, the study introduces the international cooperation in the methodological area of efficient use of nuclear energy by surveying the international activities related with nuclear economics.

  9. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  10. Comprehensive Evaluation of the Economic Development Level of Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone Using Principal Component Cluster Analysis

    Chunxiang; ZHAO; Xinrong; YAN; Xu; GUO

    2014-01-01

    Based on 10 years of statistics concerning economic development in Xi’an as the main part of Guanzhong- Tianshui Economic Zone, this article builds the main indicator system to reflect economic development. Using two mathematical methods( principal component analysis and cluster analysis),we carry out comprehensive evaluation analysis of the main economic indicators,point out the distribution differences in the economic development level in this region,and make classification,in order to provide a scientific basis for the decision- making body to lay down the relevant economic development strategies in accordance with the economic development level and geographical location.

  11. Terrorist Decision-Making: Insights from Economics and Political Science

    Jacob N. Shapiro

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Terrorist groups repeatedly take actions that are ultimately politically counter-productive. Sometimes these are the result of deliberate calculations that happen to be mistaken - Al-Qaeda’s decision to conduct the 9/11 attacks is the most obvious example of an ultimately self-defeating operation. Sometimes they reflect the challenges groups face in controlling their operatives: Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s excessive public violence against other Sunni organisations stand out. At other times they appear to steer difficult political waters quite effectively despite of deep internal divisions—Hamas is the exemplar here. This article reviews recent developments in the literature on terrorist decision-making in economics and political science. Overall, tremendous advances have been made in the last 10 years, but much work remains to be done. In particular, it is  argued that the literature needs to do better at testing its theories in inferentially credible ways and at considering terrorism as one tactical option among many for opposition political groups.

  12. Trustworthiness and Negative Affect Predict Economic Decision-Making.

    Nguyen, Christopher M; Koenigs, Michael; Yamada, Torricia H; Teo, Shu Hao; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

    2011-09-01

    The Ultimatum Game (UG) is a widely used and well-studied laboratory model of economic decision-making. Here, we studied 129 healthy adults and compared demographic (i.e., age, gender, education), cognitive (i.e., intelligence, attention/working memory, speed, language, visuospatial, memory, executive functions), and personality (i.e., "Big Five", positive affect, negative affect) variables between those with a "rational" versus an "irrational" response pattern on the UG. Our data indicated that participants with "rational" UG performance (accepting any offer, no matter the fairness) endorsed higher levels of trust, or the belief in the sincerity and good intentions of others, while participants with "irrational" UG performance (rejecting unfair offers) endorsed higher levels of negative affect, such as anger and contempt. These personality variables were the only ones that differentiated the two response patterns-demographic and cognitive factors did not differ between rational and irrational players. The results indicate that the examination of personality and affect is crucial to our understanding of the individual differences that underlie decision-making.

  13. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  14. Techno-Economic analysis

    Salvesen, F.; Sandgren, J. [KanEnergi AS, Rud (Norway)

    1997-12-31

    The present energy situation in the target area is summarized: 20 million inhabitants without electricity in north- west Russia, 50 % of the people in the Baltic`s without electricity, very high technical skills, biggest problems is the finance. The energy situation, the advantages of the renewables, the restrictions, and examples for possible technical solutions are reviewed on the basis of short analysis and experience with the Baltics and Russia

  15. Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

    Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

  16. Benevolent Ideology and Women's Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men's Wallet.

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread "expectation creator," impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women's economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2's Generalized Linear Mixed Model's results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women's endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men.

  17. Mathematics at economic university: problems and ways of their decision

    Sergei Udin

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In article problems of teaching of mathematical disciplines at economic universities are considered. The analysis of a state of preparation of entrants last years on the basis of researches PISA and the report of UNESCO on formation in the world is carried out. It is shown that in the conditions of an insufficient financ-ing of education in the Russian Federation and low level of preparation of entrants in the basic subjects, it is necessary to optimize curriculums and to use new educational technologies. It is offered to use the free software designed for carrying out mathematical and econometrics calculations, unique system of genera-tion of examinations and tests, the modern language of programming optimized for use by students of economic specialties, profound studying of tabular processor Microsoft Excel.

  18. Assessing Climate Information Use in Agribusiness. Part II: Decision Experiments to Estimate Economic Value.

    Sonka, Steven T.; Changnon, Stanley A.; Hofing, Steven

    1988-08-01

    Difficulty in evaluating the economic effectiveness of climate information is a significant impediment to expanding the use of that information. An innovative approach, combining a decision experiment and an empirical economic analysis was implemented in this paper as a mans to conduct such an economic evaluation. The decision setting was that of planning the distribution of varieties and amounts of seed corn for a major seed corn producing firm in the midwestern United States. Actual managers, accustomed to making this decision, wore provided forecasts of July and August temperature and precipitation. Their responses to that information were evaluated in terms of cost savings for the firm. Across the range of relevant parameter values tested, savings from the use of perfect forecast information were estimated to be 2% to 5% of production costs. Interestingly, imperfect forecasts of relatively adverse conditions were shown to have considerable value. For example, forecasts of adverse condition accurate only 50% of the time, wore shown to have about two-thirds of the value of perfect forecast information.

  19. DECISION ANALYSIS IN HEALTH COVERAGE

    Gloria Beatriz, Orzuza

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2000 the Organization of the United Nations established eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs. The fourth objective, reducing child mortality, looks specifically for reducing two thirds of the mortality of children under five years old between 1990 and 2015. One of the specific indicators to measure progress towards this goal is the proportion of children under one year old immunized against measles.In 2001, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP estimated that over 60% of the population who lived in developing nations is far away or losing ground on achievement of the MDGs in reducing rates of infant mortality. This situation is compounded by the lack of progress in deepening the analysis of the issue, the lack of research and indicators to assess features timely coverage of care and health services.This article aims to contribute to the selection of the strategy which would improve health coverage in Misiones, using one of the tools of decision theory, the decision matrix.

  20. Comprehensive Evaluation of Economic Indicators in Guangxi Economic Zone Based on Parallel Analysis

    Guangdong; ZENG; Chunxiang; ZHAO

    2015-01-01

    When making comprehensive evaluation on economy of an area,it is always hard to choose evaluation indicator system and composite indicators reasonably. This article uses parallel analysis to choose the number of principal component and classify indicators by R clustering and load rotation matrix to assess the economy of various cities in the economic zone and analyze economic status of each city,to provide a scientific basis for the government functional department to make correct decisions.

  1. Decision strategy research: system analysis

    Carle, B

    2000-07-01

    The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

  2. Economic analysis: A basic primer

    Doig G

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical knowledge is advancing at an incredible rate. This rapid increase in the fundamental understanding of disease states has led to some important breakthroughs in care over the past ten years and will undoubtedly lead to untold more. At the same time that we are being presented with more options for diagnosis and treatment, governments around the world are fighting to reduce deficit spending and inflation. As a direct result of this combination of reduced spending and increased options for care, medical professionals are being asked to provide more effective care more efficiently. The randomized control trial may be the best way to determine the effectiveness of different options, however, only a full economic analysis can help decide which option is more efficient. This paper is intended to provide the reader with a basic understanding of the methods used to perform a full economic analysis.

  3. Decision making from economic and signal detection perspectives: development of an integrated framework

    Lynn, Spencer K.; Wormwood, Jolie B.; Barrett, Lisa F.; Quigley, Karen S.

    2015-01-01

    Behavior is comprised of decisions made from moment to moment (i.e., to respond one way or another). Often, the decision maker cannot be certain of the value to be accrued from the decision (i.e., the outcome value). Decisions made under outcome value uncertainty form the basis of the economic framework of decision making. Behavior is also based on perception—perception of the external physical world and of the internal bodily milieu, which both provide cues that guide decision making. These perceptual signals are also often uncertain: another person's scowling facial expression may indicate threat or intense concentration, alternatives that require different responses from the perceiver. Decisions made under perceptual uncertainty form the basis of the signals framework of decision making. Traditional behavioral economic approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that comes from variability in possible outcome values, and typically ignore the influence of perceptual uncertainty. Conversely, traditional signal detection approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that arises from variability in perceptual signals and typically ignore the influence of outcome value uncertainty. Here, we compare and contrast the economic and signals frameworks that guide research in decision making, with the aim of promoting their integration. We show that an integrated framework can expand our ability to understand a wider variety of decision-making behaviors, in particular the complexly determined real-world decisions we all make every day. PMID:26217275

  4. Decision making from economic and signal detection perspectives: Development of an integrated framework

    Spencer K. Lynn

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Behavior is comprised of decisions made from moment to moment (i.e., to respond one way or another. Often, the decision maker cannot be certain of the value to be accrued from the decision (i.e., the outcome value. Decisions made under outcome value uncertainty form the basis of the economic framework of decision making. Behavior is also based on perception — perception of the external physical world and of the internal bodily milieu, which both provide cues that guide decision making. These perceptual signals are also often uncertain: another person’s scowling facial expression may indicate threat or intense concentration, alternatives that require different responses from the perceiver. Decisions made under perceptual uncertainty form the basis of the signals framework of decision making. Traditional behavioral economic approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that comes from variability in possible outcome values, and typically ignore the influence of perceptual uncertainty. Conversely, traditional signal detection approaches to decision making focus on the uncertainty that arises from variability in perceptual signals and typically ignore the influence of outcome value uncertainty. Here, we compare and contrast the economic and signals frameworks that guide research in decision making, with the aim of promoting their integration. We show that an integrated framework can expand our ability to understand a wider variety of decision-making behaviors, in particular the complexly determined real-world decisions we all make every day.

  5. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    E. S. Chung

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning. This framework consists of four parts which are to spatially identify the grades on hydrological vulnerability (potential streamflow depletion and potential water quality deterioration, to evaluate the monetary values of improvements on hydrological vulnerability grades using the choice experiment method, to derive an alternative evaluation index (AEI to quantify the effectiveness of all alternatives, and to combine the derived willingness-to-pays (WTPs with the AEI and do the cost-benefit analysis of feasible alternatives. This framework includes the stakeholder participation in order to quantify the preferences with regard to management objectives (water quantity and quality and WTPs of alternatives. Finally, the economic values of each alternative can be estimated by this study which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability grades with the AEI. The proposed procedure is applied in the Anyangcheon watershed which has been highly urbanized for past thirty years. As a result, WTPs are $0.24~$10.08/month-household for water quantity and $0.80~$8.60/month-household for water quality and residents of the five regions among six have higher WTPs for water quality improvement. Finally, since three of ten alternatives have BC>0, they can be proposed to the decision makers. This systematic screening procedure will provide decision makers with the flexibility to obtain stakeholders' consensus for water resources planning.

  6. Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

    Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina;

    2016-01-01

    Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate th...

  7. A social-economic-engineering combined framework for decision making in water resources planning

    E. S. Chung

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a new methodology not only to evaluate willingness to pays (WTPs for the improvement of hydrological vulnerability using a choice experiment (CE method but also to do a cost-benefit analysis (CBA of some feasible alternatives combing the derived WTPs with an alternative evaluation index (AEI. The hydrological vulnerability consists of potential streamflow depletion (PSD, and potential water quality deterioration (PWQD and can be quantified using a multi-criteria decision making technique and pressure-state-response (PSR framework. PSD and PWQD not only provide survey respondents with sufficient site-specific information to avoid scope sensitivity in a choice experiment but also support the standard of dividing the study watershed into six sub-regions for site-fitted management. Therefore CE was applied to six regions one after the other, in order to determine WTPs for improvements on hydrological vulnerability considering the characteristics which are vulnerability, location, and preferences with regard to management objectives. The AEI was developed to prioritize the feasible alternatives using a continuous water quantity/quality simulation model as well as multi-criteria decision making techniques. All criteria for alternative performance were selected based on a driver-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR framework, and their weights were estimated using an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP. In addition, the AEI that reflects on residents' preference with regard to management objectives was proposed in order to incite the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process. Finally, the economic values of each alternative are estimated by a newly developed method which combines the WTPs for improvements on hydrologic vulnerability with the AEI. This social-economic-engineering combined framework can provide the decision makers with more specific information as well as decrease the uncertainty of the CBA.

  8. The Felbertauern landslide of 2013: Traffic disruption, regional economic consequences and policy decisions

    Pfurtscheller, Clemens; Genovese, Elisabetta

    2016-04-01

    The Felbertauern landslide of May 2013 caused the total destruction of approximately 100 meters of road including an avalanche gallery, generating several direct and indirect impacts on the regional-economy. The Felbertauern road, an important traffic arteria for the whole NUTS-3 region East-Tyrol (Austria), was totally blocked for several weeks. Short after the event, regional decision makers were hardly in need for an estimation of the regional-economic impacts of the road blockage to opt for alternatives to reopen the road. So, two weeks after the event, an analysis of the possible effects was carried out using only scattered information and statistical data. The analysis is based on a three-month interruption scenario. Retrospectively the road blockage was only two months. Due to the fact that short after the event no up-to-date data on regional-economics at necessary scales was available, impacts on tourism by analysing overnight stays, additional transportation costs and time losses for the local companies were calculated. Using these numbers, a cost-benefit-analysis was carried out for a projected bypass, a mid-term 1.5 kilometer long route as an alternative to the destroyed road. Finally, the impacts on the local companies were severe, due to additional transportation costs of approx. Euro 1.4 million and Euro 76 000 additional time costs using an alternative approach. The impacts on regional tourism were calculated with Euro 7.7 to 10.7 million - that means 0.6 to 0.8% of the total economic output of the region. The study shows the strong impact of indirect and business interruption costs on regional economies and describes the major problems faced during the study - in particular the low availability of input data. The results of consistent cost assessment are critical for decision makers who are responsible for the development of policies to prevent the impacts on societies.

  9. Incidental rewarding cues influence economic decision-making in obesity

    Jakob eSimmank

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research suggests that obesity is linked to prominent alterations in learning and decision-making. This general difference may also underlie the preference for immediately consumable, highly palatable but unhealthy and high-calorie foods. Such poor food-related inter-temporal decision-making can explain weight gain; however, it is not yet clear whether this deficit can be generalized to other domains of inter-temporal decision-making, for example financial decisions. Further, little is known about the stability of decision-making behavior in obesity, especially in the presence of rewarding cues. To answer these questions, obese and lean participants (n=52 completed two sessions of a novel priming paradigm including a computerized monetary delay discounting task. In the first session, general differences between groups in financial delay discounting were measured. In the second session, we tested the general stability of discounting rates. Additionally, participants were primed by affective visual cues of different contextual categories before the financial decision. We found that the obese group showed stronger discounting of future monetary rewards than the lean group, but groups did not differ in their general stability between sessions nor in their sensitivity towards changes in reward magnitude. In the obese group, a fast decrease of subjective value over time was directly related to a higher tendency for opportunistic eating. Obese in contrast to lean people were primed by the affective cues, showing a sex-specific pattern of priming direction. Our findings demonstrate that environments rich of cues, aiming at inducing unhealthy consumer decisions, can be highly detrimental for obese people. It also underscores that obesity is not merely a medical condition but has a strong cognitive component, meaning that current dietary and medical treatment strategies may fall too short.

  10. Development of the Methodology for the Economic Evaluation of Managerial Decisions as a Factor of Economic Security Increase

    Olga Aleksandrovna Romanova; Vladimir Yevgenyevich Strovskiy

    2016-01-01

    In the article, it is noted that the emergence of the phenomenon of interdependence between security and development — so-called security-development nexus, becomes determining during the development of strategic documents at all hierarchical levels. It gives relevance to the search of the methodological decisions allowing to consider the possible threats to economic security at the strategic level, and the pragmatical actions which are not contradicting a strategic vector of economic entitie...

  11. Economic aspects in landscape decision-making: a participatory planning tool based on a representative approach

    Heide, van der C.M.; Blaeij, de A.T.; Heijman, W.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a method for spatial decision support that combines economic efficiency â¿¿ measured by the concept op willingness to pay â¿¿ with a participatory planning tool, that allows for an active collaboration among the actors involved, in such a way that decision makers can

  12. Productivity of prolific sheep : Economic analysis

    I. Inounu

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available The existence of major gene in the Indonesian sheep breeds has been revealed in three different genotypes which are further implied that different levels of feeding and management are necessary to realize the potential benefits for each genotype . The variability in the ewe production as a result of the differences in genotype and management levels were then evaluated by economic analysis . The result shows that improvement in management practices resulted in an increase of production ofindividual breeding ewe (BS. However, since these increases in performance required additional cost for higher input value, as it was indicated in the total production cost, attention must be given toward the decision as to which genotype to raise at what level of feeding management . This study has shown promising results to facilitate the decision makers in that direction, for example, ewes with FecJFFecJ` genotype gained the highest gross margin when they were treated with high level of feeding management. The next best alternative was followed by FecJ FFecJ F genotype. Furthermore, in the situation where low level of feeding management being practiced, ewes carrying the FecJF gene did not show their superiority since they gained lower gross margin compared with the non-carrier ewes.

  13. Economic Periodicity Analysis of Shandong Province

    Liu Zhaode; Yao Lili; Sun Jinfang; Yu Wei

    2008-01-01

    The paper analyses the periodical characteristics of the economic development of Shandong Province by using the mini-mum variation analysis model. The analysis shows that the eco-nomic development process of Shandong Province has short, medium and long cycles respectively for 6, 12, 19 years, and the fluctuation of the economic development becomes gentler with time passing by. The fluctuation of macro-control policy, invest-ment and consumption are the main reasons of the economic fluc-tuation.

  14. The economics of health and climate change: key evidence for decision making

    Hutton Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In responding to the health challenges of climate change, those responsible for health policies and resource allocations need to know the resource consequences of their decisions. This article examines the availability and strength of economic evidence for policy makers to draw on in making health policy decisions. Methods Relevant literature was obtained using a Medline and INTERNET search of key terms and institutions working in health and climate change. Eighteen available economic studies are presented under three categories of economic evidence: health damage cost, health adaptation cost and health economic evaluation. Results In economic studies valuing the predicted increased mortality from climate change, the health damages represent an important fraction of overall economic losses. Similarly, when considering broader health protection measures beyond the health sector (e.g. agriculture, water supply health considerations are central. Global adaptation cost studies carried out so far indicate health sector costs of roughly US$2-5 billion annually (mid-estimates. However, these costs are expected to be an underestimate of the true costs, due to omitted health impacts, omitted economic impacts, and the costs of health actions in other sectors. No published studies compare the costs and benefits of specific health interventions to protect health from climate change. Conclusions More economic studies are needed examining the costs and benefits of adaptation measures to inform policy making. There is an urgent need for climate change-specific health economic guidelines to ensure robust methods are used, giving comparable results. Broader advocacy and focused training of decision makers is needed to increase the uptake of economic evidence in decision making. Until further climate change-specific economic studies have been conducted, decision makers should selectively draw on published studies of the costs and benefits of

  15. Empirical essays on behavioral economics and lifecycle decisions

    Dillingh, Rik

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation consists of four empirical essays that study decisions on insurance, consumption and the accumulation and decumulation of wealth. The studies pay due attention to behavioral factors that may limit rationality, such as complexity and intertemporal choice. The first essay looks at th

  16. Material Distortion of Economic Behaviour and Everyday Decision Quality

    Gidlöf, Kerstin; Wallin, Annika; Holmqvist, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    by studying how consumers sample information when making an in-store purchase decision. This was done by an eye-tracking study which reveals to what extent consumers succeed in purchasing the products that best meet their purchase intentions when only a representative amount of misleading information...

  17. Economic potential of market-oriented water storage decisions: Evidence from Australia

    Brennan, Donna

    2010-08-01

    Significant reforms made to Australian irrigation property rights in recent years have enabled the development of an active seasonal water market. In contrast, decisions regarding the allocation of water across time are typically based on central decisions, with little or no opportunity offered to irrigators to manage risk by physically transferring their water access right between years by leaving it in the public dam. An empirical examination of the economics of water storage is presented using a case study of the Goulburn Valley, a major irrigation region in the state of Victoria. It is shown that, compared to the historically used, centrally determined storage policy, a market-based storage policy would store more water, on average, and would also allocate more water in periods of low rainfall. The analysis indicates that the costs associated with a recent prolonged drought were $100 million more than they would have been if water storage decisions had been guided by the market and prices were 3 times higher.

  18. How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics

    Matthew E. Bates

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach. Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA, value of information (VOI, weight of evidence (WOE, and portfolio decision analysis (PDA can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

  19. Discounting in economic evaluations : Stepping forward towards optimal decision rules

    Gravelle, Hugh; Brouwer, Werner; Niessen, Louis; Postma, Maarten; Rutten, Frans

    2007-01-01

    The National Institute for Clinical Excellence has recently changed its guidelines on discounting costs and effects in economic evaluations. In common with most other regulatory bodies it now requires that health effects should be discounted at the same rate as costs. We show that the guideline lead

  20. Heterogeneous Economic and Behavioural Drivers of the Farm Afforestation Decision

    Ryan, Mary; O' Donoghue, Cathal; Upton, Vincent; Handgraaf, Michael

    2015-01-01

    In the context of incentivising farm afforestation to provide ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration to mitigate greenhouse gas production, this paper sheds new light on the complexity of the farm afforestation decision and the characteristics of the farms and the farmers who are likely or unlikely to afforest land. Using a panel dataset of farm level micro-data, we observe whether farming intensity changes as a result of planting. We generate forest and agriculture income streams an...

  1. Software Development for Decision Analysis

    1975-03-01

    34|"𔃻" ’’ " ’■|’■’ J - " ■»—w—"■ ■ 1 »I ■■ »I mill 1 11 1 MI independence (Category 1) or partial Independence (Categories 2 and 3) can >>e...place vandom variable 1 after decision 3 in the tree. In the nuit phase of our research, we hope to develop general algorithms for translating any...nMiu uiiim^p^M (^PLANT EFFICIENCY^ \\~r\\ |1T) % (CAPITAL COSTS Tris ^ /KW (OPERATING COSTS^) r=TTl MILLS /KWH (jmc^lTIQn-j] MILLS /KWH.*’** By

  2. An economic decision-making support system for selection of reproductive management programs on dairy farms.

    Giordano, J O; Fricke, P M; Wiltbank, M C; Cabrera, V E

    2011-12-01

    Because the reproductive performance of lactating dairy cows influences the profitability of dairy operations, predicting the future reproductive and economic performance of dairy herds through decision support systems would be valuable to dairy producers and consultants. In this study, we present a highly adaptable tool created based on a mathematical model combining Markov chain simulation with partial budgeting to obtain the net present value (NPV; $/cow per year) of different reproductive management programs. The growing complexity of reproductive programs used by dairy farms demands that new decision support systems precisely reflect the events that occur on the farm. Therefore, the model requires productive, reproductive, and economic input data used for simulation of farm conditions to account for all factors related to reproductive management that increase costs and generate revenue. The economic performance of 3 different reproductive programs can be simultaneously compared with the current model. A program utilizing 100% visual estrous detection (ED) for artificial insemination (AI) is used as a baseline for comparison with 2 other programs that may include 100% timed AI (TAI) as well as any combination of TAI and ED. A case study is presented in which the model was used to compare 3 different reproductive management strategies (100% ED baseline compared with two 100% TAI options) using data from a commercial farm in Wisconsin. Sensitivity analysis was then used to assess the effect of varying specific reproductive parameters on the NPV. Under the simulated conditions of the case study, the model indicated that the two 100% TAI programs were superior to the 100% ED program and, of the 100% TAI programs, the one with the higher conception rate (CR) for resynchronized AI services was economically superior despite having higher costs and a longer interbreeding interval. A 4% increase in CR for resynchronized AI was sufficient for the inferior 100% TAI to

  3. Economic Analysis on Wastewater Reuse

    Yushan WAN; Na LI

    2012-01-01

    Abstract The shortage of water resources social development. Wastewater reuse is an has become a major limiting factor for effective solution to solve water short- ages, which not only has economic benefits, but also has significant social and en- vironmental benefits. The economic evaluation is an important component in the study of wastewater reuse feasibility and the basis for the program optimization and economic feasibility determination.

  4. Individual differences in decision making: Drive and reward responsiveness affect strategic bargaining in economic games

    Sanfey Alan G

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the growing body of literature on economic decision making, the main focus has typically been on explaining aggregate behavior, with little interest in individual differences despite considerable between-subject variability in decision responses. In this study, we were interested in asking to what degree individual differences in fundamental psychological processes can mediate economic decision-making behavior. Methods Specifically, we studied a personality dimension that may influence economic decision-making, the Behavioral Activation System, (BAS which is composed of three components: Reward Responsiveness, Drive, and Fun Seeking. In order to assess economic decision making, we utilized two commonly-used tasks, the Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game. Individual differences in BAS were measured by completion of the BIS/BAS Scales, and correlations between the BAS scales and monetary offers made in the two tasks were computed. Results We found that higher scores on BAS Drive and on BAS Reward Responsiveness were associated with a pattern of higher offers on the Ultimatum Game, lower offers on the Dictator Game, and a correspondingly larger discrepancy between Ultimatum Game and Dictator Game offers. Conclusion These findings are consistent with an interpretation that high scores on Drive and Reward Responsiveness are associated with a strategy that first seeks to maximize the likelihood of reward, and then to maximize the amount of reward. More generally, these results suggest that there are additional factors other than empathy, fairness and selfishness that contribute to strategic decision-making.

  5. Photovoltaic systems: an economic analysis

    Cirillo, E.; Lazzarin, R.; Fato, I. (Bari Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Tecnica e Impianti Termotecnici)

    Costs and benefits of a photovoltaic plant intended for residential utilization and connected to the supply mains are evaluated. Three types of panels (mono, polycrystalline and amorphous silicon) are considered in determining the optimum economical size. Criteria for estimating the economically convenient peak watt cost compared with the mains supply cost are suggested.

  6. Foundations of Decision Analysis: Along the Way

    Peter C. Fishburn

    1989-01-01

    This paper offers a personal perspective on the development of decision theory and related subjects during the past half century. It first reviews six milestones in the foundations of decision analysis that are associated with Frank P. Ramsey, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, Leonard J. Savage, Maurice Allais and Ward Edwards, West Churchman and Russell Ackoff, and Kenneth Arrow. It then gives a personal account of further developments over the past 30 years in linear utility theory, s...

  7. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economicactivities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed thatfemale participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultrymanagement while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operationsonly. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goatrearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience,personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of genderparticipation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selectionof crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children's education, while females always made decision on types of food forhome consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significantfactors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making.Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of womeninvolvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operativesocieties are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economicactivities and decision making.

  8. Interest rate and Economic Growth as Determinants of Firm Investment Decision: An Investigation on BIST listed firms

    Hasan AYAYDIN

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. This study aims to investigate the effect of political uncertainty as a determinant of investment decisions on investment decisions of firms. For this purpose, this study involves 147 BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange listed firms displaying activity in the industry sector between 2008 and 2013. Panel data analysis with relevant quarterly data was used to analyze the relationship between political uncertainty and investment decisions of firms. Analysis results have revealed a statistically significant relationship between investments of firms and the variable representing 29 March 2009 General Local Elections, 12 June 2011 General Elections and 12 September 2010 New Constitution Referendum as an indicator of political uncertainty. This verifies the argument suggesting an uncertainty due to elections may negatively affect investments of firms through inefficient capital allocation, and this can be said to provide a strong message with regard to important economic effects of political uncertainty.Keywords. Political uncertainty, Elections, Firm investments.JEL. D92, E21.

  9. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Risk Analysis Section]|[Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

    ’s feasibility. A socioeconomic analysis is in this respect a further development of the traditional CBA capturing the economic value of social benefits by translating social objectives into financial measures of benefits (Wright et al.,2009). Internationally seen there has been a growing awareness over...... the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range...

  11. Economic Logic and Turn of Its Research Paradigm Based on Analysis of Bayesian Decision Theory:on XI Jin-ping’s Economic Thought%贝叶斯决策理论视域下的经济逻辑及其研究范式转向--兼析习近平经济思想

    李章吕

    2016-01-01

    经济逻辑学是经济学和逻辑学的交叉学科,它的产生有其必然性,我们可以从经济学的基本假设、经济学的研究方法、经济学研究的确定性以及逻辑学的发展等几个角度给予论证。从贝叶斯决策理论的视角看,它是研究经济活动中理性决策和策略推理的科学。在理论驱动力和现实驱动力的双重作用下,经济逻辑的研究已开始了由形式逻辑范式向科学逻辑范式的转向。%Economic logic is the inter-discipline subject of economics and logic and comes into being inevitably.We can argue from several angles such as the basic hypothesis of economics,the research methods of economics,economics of uncertainty,and the development of logic and so on.From the perspective of the bayesian decision theory,it is the study of the science of rational decision making and strategy reasoning in the economic activities.Under the dual role of driving force theory and prac-tical driving force,the study of the economic logic has began to shift from the formal logic paradigm to the scientific logic paradigm.

  12. Decision variables analysis for structured modeling

    潘启树; 赫东波; 张洁; 胡运权

    2002-01-01

    Structured modeling is the most commonly used modeling method, but it is not quite addaptive to significant changes in environmental conditions. Therefore, Decision Variables Analysis(DVA), a new modelling method is proposed to deal with linear programming modeling and changing environments. In variant linear programming , the most complicated relationships are those among decision variables. DVA classifies the decision variables into different levels using different index sets, and divides a model into different elements so that any change can only have its effect on part of the whole model. DVA takes into consideration the complicated relationships among decision variables at different levels, and can therefore sucessfully solve any modeling problem in dramatically changing environments.

  13. Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

    Christopher eSummerfield

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

  14. ACCOUNTING INFORMATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC DECISION AND FISCAL MANAGEMENT IN THE ENTERPRISE LEVEL

    HOLT GHEORGHE

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Anchored in reflecting reality, as secular science and practice, accounting has demonstrated continuously opening towards progress and social involvement. The information provided by operators underlie the economic and political decision of a wide range of users. The variety of funding determines the specific behavior of the company. In an economic environment with largely financing through bank loans, companies and their creditors directs its decision in particular on collateral, receivables and payables at a time. In an environment with its own financing, the interests of users of accounting information is moving mainly on growth equity, results and cash holdings.

  15. The Decision on Commercialisation of Scientific and Technical Developments in the Economic Cluster

    Buyanova Marina Eduardovna

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the implementation of the strategy of national economy innovative development, the urgent problem consists in the development of the mechanism of commercialization of existing or newly emerging developments. On the basis of comparative analysis, the competency models of creation and commercialization of scientific and technological developments are presented. They include state, scientific and industrial as well as industrial and scientific models allocated by the following criteria: the initiator of an STD; the cooperation technique within the cluster. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are substantiated. The authors propose the technique of decision-making on the STD commercialization in the conditions of the cluster economic system formation taking into account the expansion of the participants’ integration at the regional market. The technique consists of a few methods and is based on the construction of a “decision tree”; it suggests a multi-level approach and provides a review of existing problems and identifying possible risks in implementing innovation activity. For evaluating the innovative projects the authors propose the matrix of criteria for a developer and for a potential manufacturer of a scientific and technological solution. These criteria may be complemented by the implementation of specific ones during the innovative development under certain conditions.

  16. Gender Participation in Economic Activities and Decision Making in Keffi Area of Nigeria

    Hassan Ishaq Ibrahim

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The study assessed gender participation and decision making role in economic activities using data collected from 120 respondents. The results revealed that female participation was frequent in crop post-harvest activities and poultry management while male participation was frequent in crop pre-harvest operations only. Female respondents participated occasionally in home gardening, goat rearing, hair dressing and food processing. Educational level, years of experience, personal income and credit obtained significantly influenced the level of gender participation in economic activities. The Males always made decisions on selection of crop variety, spending money, saving money, buying of necessities, and children’s education, while females always made decision on types of food for home consumption only. Age and income of respondents were the significant factors that influenced the level of gender involvement in decision making. Provision of credit facilities, sensitization on the importance of women involvement in decision making and mobilization of farmers to form co-operative societies are necessary impetus for improving women participation in economic activities and decision making.

  17. Rational economic strategy and entropic analysis

    Allred, J.C.; Howard, H.H.

    1978-01-01

    The neglect of entropic changes of energy and matter in the economic process leads to incorrect formulation of economic theory, as was first pointed out by the economist, Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen. Entropic analysis, that is, the reckoning of entropic changes in real-world processes, appears to be a useful guide toward a realistic understanding of the economic process. The example chosen here is the choice between natural gas and coal as fossil fuel. An outline of the necessary analysis is discussed, together with the requirements of rational economic strategy.

  18. Applying health economics for policy decision making: do devices differ from drugs?

    Sorenson, Corinna; Tarricone, Rosanna; Siebert, Markus; Drummond, Michael

    2011-05-01

    Medical devices pose unique challenges for economic evaluation and associated decision-making processes that differ from pharmaceuticals. We highlight and discuss these challenges in the context of cardiac device therapy, based on a systematic review of relevant economic evaluations. Key challenges include practical difficulties in conducting randomized clinical trials, allowing for a 'learning curve' and user characteristics, accounting for the wider organizational impacts of introducing new devices, and allowing for variations in product characteristics and prices over time.

  19. Cognitive control and individual differences in economic ultimatum decision-making.

    Wim De Neys

    Full Text Available Much publicity has been given to the fact that people's economic decisions often deviate from the rational predictions of standard economic models. In the classic ultimatum game, for example, most people turn down financial gains by rejecting unequal monetary splits. The present study points to neglected individual differences in this debate. After participants played the ultimatum game we tested for individual differences in cognitive control capacity of the most and least economic responders. The key finding was that people who were higher in cognitive control, as measured by behavioral (Go/No-Go performance and neural (No-Go N2 amplitude markers, did tend to behave more in line with the standard models and showed increased acceptance of unequal splits. Hence, the cognitively highest scoring decision-makers were more likely to maximize their monetary payoffs and adhere to the standard economic predictions. Findings question popular claims with respect to the rejection of standard economic models and the irrationality of human economic decision-making.

  20. Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

    Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

    2016-02-01

    Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results.

  1. Multicriteria decision aid/analysis in finance

    J. Spronk (Jaap); R.E. Steuer; C. Zopounidis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractMULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS: State of the Art Surveys is the most comprehensive work available to survey the state of the art in MCDA to date. Its 25 chapters are organized in eight parts and are written by 52 international leading experts. Each of these parts covers one of the c

  2. Development of economic consequence methodology for process risk analysis.

    Zadakbar, Omid; Khan, Faisal; Imtiaz, Syed

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive methodology for economic consequence analysis with appropriate models for risk analysis of process systems is proposed. This methodology uses loss functions to relate process deviations in a given scenario to economic losses. It consists of four steps: definition of a scenario, identification of losses, quantification of losses, and integration of losses. In this methodology, the process deviations that contribute to a given accident scenario are identified and mapped to assess potential consequences. Losses are assessed with an appropriate loss function (revised Taguchi, modified inverted normal) for each type of loss. The total loss is quantified by integrating different loss functions. The proposed methodology has been examined on two industrial case studies. Implementation of this new economic consequence methodology in quantitative risk assessment will provide better understanding and quantification of risk. This will improve design, decision making, and risk management strategies.

  3. Economic analysis of same-sex marriage.

    Portelli, Christopher J

    2004-01-01

    This article applies the neoclassical microeconomic analysis of marriage as developed by Nobel laureate economist Gary Becker to same-sex marriage. The objective is to demonstrate that the economic analysis of marriage supports allowing same-sex marriage, and that same-sex marriages would strengthen the incentive to marry, increase the efficiency of marriage markets, provide for more children to be raised in two-parent optimum environments, and benefit states economically overall. The article concludes with an overview of the economic impact of same-sex marriages on states based on the analysis, data and fiscal information currently available from researchers and economists in the field.

  4. Neurocognitive Mechanisms Underlying Value-Based Decision-Making: From Core Values to Economic Value

    Tobias eBrosch

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Value plays a central role in practically every aspect of human life that requires a decision: whether we choose between different consumer goods, whether we decide which person we marry or which political candidate gets our vote, we choose the option that has more value to us. Over the last decade, neuroeconomic research has mapped the neural substrates of economic value, revealing that activation in brain regions such as ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC, ventral striatum or posterior cingulate cortex reflects how much an individual values an option and which of several options he/she will choose. However, while great progress has been made exploring the mechanisms underlying concrete decisions, neuroeconomic research has been less concerned with the questions of why people value what they value, and why different people value different things. Social psychologists and sociologists have long been interested in core values, motivational constructs that are intrinsically linked to the self-schema and are used to guide actions and decisions across different situations and different time points. Core value may thus be an important determinant of individual differences in economic value computation and decision-making. Based on a review of recent neuroimaging studies investigating the neural representation of core values and their interactions with neural systems representing economic value, we outline a common framework that integrates the core value concept and neuroeconomic research on value-based decision-making.

  5. Economic behavior: analysis and prospects

    Lyudmila Alekseevna Migranova

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Efficient social policy should be based on the understanding of strategies which Russian families use for adaptation to a difficult economic situation in the country. This understanding is promoted by regular research into people’s consumer behaviour and by sociological surveys of savings strategies. Scientists are studying the investment behaviour of population. Consumer behaviour, savings behaviour and investment behaviour are the elements of economic behaviour of population. The integrated research into these components gives the greatest effect for enhancing the efficiency of social policy. The “Taganrog” Project is one of such integrated studies. This project has been implemented within forty years; its main purpose is to study various aspects of life of households in this southern city that used to be an industrial city

  6. Economic Analysis of Agricultural Investments

    Adrian ZUGRAVU

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to introduce a modification of a standardfour input production process where energy is used in an inefficient way due topartly unnecessary waste of energy. The changes in production efficiencyinvestigated using stochastic frontier methods, show declining technicalefficiency in livestock production and especially low marginal contribution oflabor inputs. The number of workers, size of farm, and distance from nearestcity are related to efficiency in agricultural production. It is well known thatresults from an environmental policy in response to global climate change arequite sensitive to the assumption on the rate of energy efficiency improvements.However, technical progress is traditionally considered as a non-economicvariable in economic policy models. It is exogenous in most policy evaluationsas well as in the theory of environmental economics.

  7. Pet overpopulation: An economic analysis

    Coate, Stephen; Knight, Brian

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of pet overpopulation. It develops a tractable dynamic model whose positive predictions square well with key features of the current U.S. market for pets. The model is used to understand, from a welfare economic perspective, the sense in which there is \\overpopulation" of pets and the underlying causes of the problem. The paper also employs the model to consider what policies might be implemented to deal with the problem. A calibrated example is developed to i...

  8. Aging and Wisdom: Age-related changes in economic and social decision making

    Kenneth eLim

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a ‘phenomenon of decline’ and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: 1 prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations, 2 resolving social conflicts, 3 emotional homeostasis, 4 self-reflection, 5 dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  9. Aging and wisdom: age-related changes in economic and social decision making.

    Lim, Kenneth Teck Kiat; Yu, Rongjun

    2015-01-01

    World life expectancy is increasing and many populations will begin to age rapidly. The impeding prevalence of a greater number of older people living longer lives will have significant social and economic implications. It is important to understand how older people make economic and social decisions. Aging can be associated with a "phenomenon of decline" and also greater wisdom. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between wisdom and aging. It reviews and connects the behavioral sciences and neuroscience literature on age differences in the following social and economic decision making domains that represent subcomponents of wisdom: (1) prosocial behavior in experimental economic games and competitive situations; (2) resolving social conflicts; (3) emotional homeostasis; (4) self-reflection; (5) dealing effectively with uncertainty in the domains of risk, ambiguity and intertemporal choice. Overall, we find a lack of research into how older people make economic and social decisions. There is, however, some evidence that older adults outperform young adults on certain subcomponents of wisdom, but the exact relationship between old age and each subcomponent remains unclear. A better understanding of these relationships holds the potential to alleviate a wide range of mental health problems, and has broad implications for social policies aimed at the elderly.

  10. Helping patients make better decisions: how to apply behavioral economics in clinical practice

    Courtney MR

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Maureen Reni Courtney,1 Christy Spivey,2 Kathy M Daniel1 1College of Nursing, 2College of Business, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, USA  Abstract: Clinicians are committed to effectively educating patients and helping them to make sound decisions concerning their own health care. However, how do clinicians determine what is effective education? How do they present information clearly and in a manner that patients understand and can use to make informed decisions? Behavioral economics (BE is a subfield of economics that can assist clinicians to better understand how individuals actually make decisions. BE research can help guide interactions with patients so that information is presented and discussed in a more deliberate and impactful way. We can be more effective providers of care when we understand the factors that influence how our patients make decisions, factors of which we may have been largely unaware. BE research that focuses on health care and medical decision making is becoming more widely known, and what has been reported suggests that BE interventions can be effective in the medical realm. The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians with an overview of BE decision science and derived practice strategies to promote more effective behavior change in patients.Keywords: nursing, message framing, defaults, incentives, social norms, commitment devices, health care

  11. A cross-cultural study of noblesse oblige in economic decision-making.

    Fiddick, Laurence; Cummins, Denise Dellarosa; Janicki, Maria; Lee, Sean; Erlich, Nicole

    2013-09-01

    A cornerstone of economic theory is that rational agents are self-interested, yet a decade of research in experimental economics has shown that economic decisions are frequently driven by concerns for fairness, equity, and reciprocity. One aspect of other-regarding behavior that has garnered attention is noblesse oblige, a social norm that obligates those of higher status to be generous in their dealings with those of lower status. The results of a cross-cultural study are reported in which marked noblesse oblige was observed on a reciprocal-contract decision-making task. Participants from seven countries that vary along hierarchical and individualist/collectivist social dimensions were more tolerant of non-reciprocation when they adopted a high-ranking perspective compared with a low-ranking perspective.

  12. Study of multi-objective optimization and multi-attribute decision-making for economic and environmental power dispatch

    Xuebin, Li [Research and Development Center, Wuhan 2nd Ship Design and Research Institute, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430064 (China)

    2009-05-15

    Environmental awareness and the recent environmental policies have forced many electric utilities to restructure their practices to account for their emission impacts. One way to accomplish this is by reformulating the traditional economic dispatch problem such that emission effects are included in the mathematical model. The economic/environmental dispatch problem is a multi-objective non-linear optimization problem with constraints. This study presents a hybrid approach to solve the combined economic-emission dispatch problem (CEED). In the first stage, a non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA II) is employed to approximate the set of Pareto solution through an evolutionary optimization process. In the subsequent stage, a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach is adopted to rank these solutions from best to worst and to determinate the best solution in a deterministic environment with a single decision maker. This hybrid approach is tested on a six-unit system to illustrate the analysis process in present analysis. Pareto frontiers are obtained and the ranking of Pareto solutions is based on entropy weight and TOPSIS method. Results obtained show that the hybrid approach has a great potential in handling multi-objective optimization problem. (author)

  13. Economic Analysis in Plain English: A Course in Economic Journalism.

    Grunin, Lori; Lindauer, David L.

    1986-01-01

    Describes an experimental course designed as a journalism workshop where economics students became reporters writing articles on economic events, issues, and prominent economists and their ideas. The requirement to explain economics to lay readers accurately and clearly, developed the students' own economic literacy. (Author/JDH)

  14. How is an analysis of the enterprise economic environment done?

    Carlos Parodi Trece

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The proper interpretation of the evolution of the economy is a useful tool to improve corporate decision-making. The aim of this paper is to explain, with examples applied to the current economic reality, how an analysis of the economic environment is made and how it serves for the corporate strategic planning. To do this, after the explanation of the overall conceptual framework; gross domestic product, inflation and external deficit as indicators, key in the "language" used by analysts are defined. These are economic indicators, related, that depend on domestic policy and exogenous shocks, defined as events that are out of the hands of economic policy designers, but that influence the three variables, such as the international financial crisis. Following it, the formalization through macroeconomic identities is made, in order to finally explain "how is the economy" through them; and the relationship between the internal to the external economic environment. Bringing the economy to business should be a priority in an increasingly integrated context, characterized by the fact that the positive and the negative of what happens in the world economy is transmitted through various channels, to companies located in different countries. Hence, companies should broaden their vision, as the economic environment does not only include what happens within the country, but the future of the world economy.

  15. Fractional State Space Analysis of Economic Systems

    J. A. Tenreiro Machado

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS method and state space portrait (SSP analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

  16. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making – a perspective

    Tobias eKalenscher

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  17. Why we should use animals to study economic decision making - a perspective.

    Kalenscher, Tobias; van Wingerden, Marijn

    2011-01-01

    Despite the rich tradition in psychology and biology, animals as research subjects have never gained a similar acceptance in microeconomics research. With this article, we counter this trend of negligence and try to convey the message that animal models are an indispensible complement to the literature on human economic decision making. This perspective review departs from a description of the similarities in economic and evolutionary theories of human and animal decision making, with particular emphasis on the optimality aspect that both classes of theories have in common. In a second part, we outline that actual, empirically observed decisions often do not conform to the normative ideals of economic and ecological models, and that many of the behavioral violations found in humans can also be found in animals. In a third part, we make a case that the sense or nonsense of the behavioral violations of optimality principles in humans can best be understood from an evolutionary perspective, thus requiring animal research. Finally, we conclude with a critical discussion of the parallels and inherent differences in human and animal research.

  18. The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

    Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

    2016-04-01

    Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even

  19. Decision Analysis of Urban Land Intensive Use from the Perspective of Economics%经济学视角下城市土地集约利用的决策分析

    陈银蓉; 梅昀; 孟祥旭; 陈昱

    2013-01-01

    The state of intensive urban land use is a collection of its land parcel use state. Research oft the characteristics and mutual influence of decision subjects in land use decision-making is needed to improve land-use decisions and intensive land use. Here, we analyze land-use decision-making, the behavior of land developers by cost-benefit analysis, changes in the inputs from industrial enterprises by long-term production theory and law of land diminishing return, land supply choices of the local government, land supply strategies for residential and industrial areas, and the effects of intensive land use. We found that to improve the intensity of land use, the decision of land developers is to increase the building density and floor area ratio as much as possible in the range of acceptable technical conditions and the market. As for industrial land, the rise in relative land price means that capital and labor for production will increase. However, according to the law of land diminishing returns, increased investments take the total revenue growth as a precondition. The local government tends to supply more land: for residential and commercial land, it will obtain land revenue at a higher premium by virtue of monopoly market conditions but lower the price of industrial land to attract enterprises. In order to promote land intensive use, local government should standardize land development by restricting planning targets and regulating land use, and raise the intensity of industrial land by setting an investment intensity threshold. Local government should also regulate its decision-making behavior by improving related laws and policies.%城市土地集约利用状态是其宗地利用状态的集合,研究土地利用决策系统中各决策主体的行为特点和相互影响,对于改进土地利用决策,实现土地集约利用具有重要意义.本文通过土地利用决策过程的分析,明确决策主体和决策目的.然后,基于理性人的假设,借

  20. Economic analysis of nuclear energy

    Song, Ki Dong; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lim, C. Y.; Kim, H. S

    2000-12-01

    This study identified the role of nuclear energy in the following three major aspects. First of all, this study carried out cost effectiveness of nuclear as a CDM technology, which is one of means of GHG emission reduction in UNFCCC. Secondly, environmental externalities caused by air pollutants emitted by power options were estimated. The 'observed market behaviour' method and 'responses to hypothetical market' method were used to estimate objectively the environmental external costs by electric source, respectively. Finally, the role of nuclear power in securing electricity supply in a liberalized electricity market was analyzed. This study made efforts to investigate whether nuclear power generation with high investment cost could be favored in a liberalized market by using 'option value' analysis of investments.

  1. Interbank Lending Decisions in An Economic Downturn: An Agent-Based Approach

    Deddy P. Koesrindartoto

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Interbank lending is one mechanism that can make shock, which is accepted by one bank spread to other banks (contagion. There are several researchers that focused their research on analyzing the effect of interbank lending to systemic risk. However, there is a few research that analyzed the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior, especially on the bank interbank lending to the systemic risk. In this research, the author creates an agent-based  simulation of the banking system to analyze the effect of banks’ decision maker’s behavior to systemic risk in economic downturn condition. The preliminary result from this research is for an economic downturn in a long time period, the banking system with a low net worth to the asset's ratio threshold will produce more default bank than the banking system with a high net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. However, for an economic downturn in small time period, banking system which all bank in their system has the higher net worth to assets ratio threshold will have the default bank first than the banking system which has the lower net worth to the asset's ratio threshold. Keywords: agent-based simulation, banker behavior, interbank lending, economic downturn

  2. Technocracy and Economic Decision-Making in Southeast Asia: An Overview

    Khoo Boo Teik

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This article provides an overview of issues important to studying technocracy and economic decision-making in Southeast Asia. Historically the subject extends from the incorporation of non-communist states of the region into the US-molded post-World War II international order to the East Asian financial crisis of 1997. To Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, advisory and expert missions of the United States, World Bank, and other international agencies bore “state-of-the-art” economic policy-making and development planning that reserved a special, politically immunized role for technocrats. Yet, technocrats occupied a contentious position because of conflicting interests in changing conditions of underdevelopment, late industrialization, trade and investment liberalization, and financial global­ization. As such, the assessment of the relationship between technocracy and economic decision-making in Southeast Asia should consider such opposed expectations as: the claims of technocratic efficacy against claims on social equity; demands of professional efficiency against demands of public accountability; appeals to state priorities against appeals to democracy; advances of national interests against defense of vested interests; promotion of economic targets against the attainment of social objectives; and the autonomy of technocrats against their captivity to patronage.

  3. Analysis Economics of Realizing Mass Customization

    WANG Jiuhe; XIA Yan; FANG Shufen

    2006-01-01

    This paper breaks through the old study pattern, emphasizing the important of economic analysis and put forward the analytic method. The paper compares mass customization to just-in-time, analyses the two facets which include production and distribution. The production facet is influence of the indirect cost, scale economy, experiences economy and dynamic alliance. The reduction of indirect cost is the innovation, which has special angle comparatively traditional economic analysis. There is gaming between satisfying customer special demand and deciding price. Mass customization emphasizes that customer must achieve to loyalty not only content without increasing extra service charge-faith in company and product. The paper sets forth the economics of scale economy and dynamic alliance to embody the extensive economy. In addition it is another innovation that this paper analyses the defects of mass customization to evaluate the economic risk. Through comparing the traditional production mode, demonstrating the implement feasibility in company. That is mass customization has less economic risk whether or not. So the analysis proposes the evidences of the way of enterprise production.

  4. The Relation Between Socio-Economic Characteristics and the Innovation Decision Making of Digital Television Broadcasts

    Haryati Haryati

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Migration from analog to digital technology, requires a lot of preparation, both from the side of the device, the regulation of the broadcasting industry, and the society. This study refers to the Diffusion of Innovations theory (the theory of Diffusion of Innovation (Rogers, 1986 that try to explain how an innovation (technology can be accepted into the community, through a process of decision. The aim of the research is to find out the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the innovation and decision-making broadcast of digital television. This research uses a quantitative approach with descriptive methods aim to find out the relationship between socio-economic characteristics of the innovation and decision-making broadcast of digital television. The research was carried out in seven counties/cities in West Java Province and Banten Province. The selection of samples is carried out by Multistage Random Cluster Sampling. The number of samples as many as 813 people assigned by Proportional Sampling techniques, with the character category of respondents age 15 years until 64 years. Significance test results with the method at the rate of 5% Pearson pointed out that, the relationship between innovation decision-making variables with socio-economic characteristics on three aspects, namely, education, income, and spending is weak and insignificant, while on access to information, the value of relationships and significant. This suggests the necessity of strengthening the capacity of absorption of community efforts in the face of digital broadcast television, can be done by fixing the value of any existing components on the operational level. As a priority, is how the effort to improve the economy of society, especially in terms of education, income, and expenditure permonth.

  5. 17 CFR 200.23a - Office of Economic Analysis.

    2010-04-01

    ... Office also assists the Commission's enforcement effort by applying economic analysis and statistical... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Office of Economic Analysis... Organization § 200.23a Office of Economic Analysis. The Office of Economic Analysis is responsible...

  6. Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management.

    Marre, Jean-Baptiste; Thébaud, Olivier; Pascoe, Sean; Jennings, Sarah; Boncoeur, Jean; Coglan, Louisa

    2016-08-01

    Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as being useful to support ecosystem management decision-making. However, the extent to which it is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of economic valuation of ecosystem services, in support of coastal and marine management, are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across groups of decision-makers. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use economic valuation. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent's use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other studies on the usefulness and use of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also demonstrate the strength of the survey-based approach developed in this application to examine this issue in a variety of contexts.

  7. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available tec

  8. Economic decision-making in psychopathy: a comparison with ventromedial prefrontal lesion patients.

    Koenigs, Michael; Kruepke, Michael; Newman, Joseph P

    2010-06-01

    Psychopathy, which is characterized by a constellation of antisocial behavioral traits, may be subdivided on the basis of etiology: "primary" (low-anxious) psychopathy is viewed as a direct consequence of some core intrinsic deficit, whereas "secondary" (high-anxious) psychopathy is viewed as an indirect consequence of environmental factors or other psychopathology. Theories on the neurobiology of psychopathy have targeted dysfunction within ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a putative mechanism, yet the relationship between vmPFC function and psychopathy subtype has not been fully explored. In this study, we administered two laboratory decision-making tasks (the Ultimatum Game and the Dictator Game) to a group of prisoners (n=47) to determine whether the different subtypes of psychopathy (primary vs. secondary) are associated with characteristic patterns of economic decision-making, and furthermore, whether either subtype exhibits similar performance to patients with vmPFC lesions. Comparing primary psychopaths (n=6) to secondary psychopaths (n=6) and non-psychopaths (n=22), we found that primary psychopathy was associated with significantly lower acceptance rates of unfair Ultimatum offers and lower offer amounts in the Dictator Game. Moreover, primary psychopaths were quantitatively similar to vmPFC lesion patients in their response patterns. These results support the purported connection between psychopathy and vmPFC dysfunction, bolster the distinction between primary and secondary psychopathy, and demonstrate the utility of laboratory economic decision-making tests in differentiating clinical subgroups.

  9. Use of ecosystem services economic valuation for decision making: questioning a literature blindspot.

    Laurans, Yann; Rankovic, Aleksandar; Billé, Raphaël; Pirard, Romain; Mermet, Laurent

    2013-04-15

    Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (ESV) is often seen as a tool that can potentially enhance our collective choices regarding ecosystem services as it factors in the costs and benefits of their degradation. Yet, to achieve this, the social processes leading to decisions need to use ESV effectively. This makes it necessary to understand if and how ESV is or is not used by decision-makers. However, there appears to be a literature blindspot as to the issue of the Use of Ecosystem Services economic Valuation (UESV). This paper proposes a systematic review on UESV in peer-reviewed scientific literature. It shows that this literature gives little attention to this issue and rarely reports cases where ESV has been put to actual use, even though such use is frequently referred to as founding the goal and justification of ESV. The review identifies three categories of potential UESV: decisive, technical and informative, which are usually mentioned as prospects for the valuations published. Two sets of hypotheses are examined to explain this result: either the use of ESV is a common practice, but is absent from the literature reviewed here; or the use of ESV is effectively rare. These hypotheses are discussed and open up further avenues of research which should make the actual use of ESV their core concern.

  10. Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

    Lai; Kin; Keung

    2008-01-01

    A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

  11. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms

  12. Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

    Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

    2012-02-01

    Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

  13. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  14. The role of testosterone and estrogen in consumer behavior and social & economic decision making: A review.

    Stanton, Steven J

    2016-11-11

    This manuscript reviews the current literature on the actions of the steroid hormones testosterone and estradiol in shaping humans' behavior within two applied contexts, specifically consumer behavior and decision making (both social and economic). The theoretical argument put forth is that steroids shape these everyday behaviors and choices in service to being more competitive in achieving long-term goals related to resource acquisition, mating success, and social dominance. In addition, a discussion of the increased research focus on the role of steroids in other applied business domains will highlight the relevant applications of basic science discoveries in behavioral endocrinology.

  15. Il Risk Management nei progetti di investimento attraverso la Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

    Elena Fregonara

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Usually, we consider Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA as a deterministic approach to support complex decisions, which involve multidisciplinary profiles. Furthermore, risk analysis is considered as an integral part of investments analysis, also in a probabilistic version. In this work, we are going to explore the applicability of probabilistic MCDA in supporting risk analysis practices (as a part of project management activities, in economic feasibility evaluation of the real estate investment projects. It is assumed a management approach based on adaptive approach instead of optimization approach; to operate in context characterized by the presence of risk/uncertainty components; that these components are able to perturb decision processes and strategic choices, conditioned by subjectivity/uncertainty of stakeholders and institutions in judgement definition phase (decision maker’s utility functions, criterion scores, ranking of alternatives, etc..

  16. Economic Growth And Carbon Emission: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

    Ibrahim BAKIRTAS

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between carbon dioxide emission (CO2 and economic growth is one of the crucial topics in environmental economics. This study is aimed to investigatethat problem. In this study, depending on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC, the impact of income in carbon dioxide emission has measured for 34 OECD and5 BRICS countries with using Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. In this regard OECD countries are classified by income groups due to the average per capita income rate ofOECD to solve the homogeneity problem among OECD countries. On the other hand EKC hypothesis analysed by short and long run income elasticity which will be using foran evident that a country reduces CO2 emissions with the income increase in this study. According to the findings of the study, % 36 of the country sample coherent with theEKC hypothesis. The main encouragement for testing this relationship between economic growth and CO2 emission is leading politicians to reconsider the environmental impactswhich are arising from income increase when they are taking a decision to maximizes the economic growth.Keywords: EKC; OECD; Dynamic Panel Data

  17. Benevolent Ideology and Women’s Economic Decision-Making: When Sexism Is Hurting Men’s Wallet

    Silvestre, Aude; Sarlet, Marie; Huart, Johanne; Dardenne, Benoit

    2016-01-01

    Can ideology, as a widespread “expectation creator,” impact economic decisions? In two studies we investigated the influence of the Benevolent Sexism (BS) ideology (which dictates that men should provide for passive and nurtured women) on women’s economic decision-making. In Study 1, using a Dictator Game in which women decided how to share amounts of money with men, results of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model analysis show that higher endorsement of BS and contextual expectations of benevolence were associated with more very unequal offers. Similarly, in an Ultimatum Game in which women received monetary offers from men, Study 2’s Generalized Linear Mixed Model’s results revealed that BS led women to reject more very unequal offers. If women’s endorsement of BS ideology and expectations of benevolence prove contrary to reality, they may strike back at men. These findings show that BS ideology creates expectations that shape male-female relationships in a way that could be prejudicial to men. PMID:26870955

  18. Economic optimization of decisions with respect to dairy cow health management.

    Houben, E.H.P.

    1995-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was directed towards decision support in dairy cow health management. Attention was focused on clinical mastitis, in many countries considered to be the most important dairy health problem. First a statistical analysis was carried out to obtain biological and ec

  19. Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Md Whaiduzzaman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing (CC has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA. MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios.

  20. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs.

  1. Economic analysis of sustainable management of candeia

    Antonio Donizette de Oliveira

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Candeia wood (Eremanthus erythropappus is widely used for production of essential oil and its active ingredient,alpha-bisabolol, is consumed by both the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industry. This study aimed to determine the productivity andoperating costs associated with exploration, transportation and commercialization of candeia timber obtained from sustainablemanagement systems and used for oil production; to determine the gross income or revenue obtained from the sale of candeia timber;to analyze the economic feasibility of sustainable management of candeia. For the economic analysis, Net Present Value, Net PresentValue over an infinite planning horizon, and Average Cost of Production methods were used. Results indicated that the mostsignificant costs associated with candeia forest management involve transportation and exploration. Together they account for 64%of the total management cost. Candeia forest management for oil production is economically feasible, even in situations where theinterest rate is high or timber price drops to levels well below currently effective prices. As far as candeia forest management isconcerned, shorter harvest cycles allow higher profitability. However, even in situations where the harvest cycle is relatively long (30years, the activity is still economically feasible.

  2. A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making.

    Hyde, K M; Maier, H R; Colby, C B

    2005-12-01

    The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.

  3. Coupled hydrological, ecological, decision and economic models for monetary valuation of riparian ecosystem services

    Goodrich, D. C.; Brookshire, D.; Broadbent, C.; Dixon, M. D.; Brand, L. A.; Thacher, J.; Benedict, K. K.; Lansey, K. E.; Stromberg, J. C.; Stewart, S.; McIntosh, M.

    2011-12-01

    Water is a critical component for sustaining both natural and human systems. Yet the value of water for sustaining ecosystem services is not well quantified in monetary terms. Ideally decisions involving water resource management would include an apples-to-apples comparison of the costs and benefits in dollars of both market and non-market goods and services - human and ecosystem. To quantify the value of non-market ecosystem services, scientifically defensible relationships must be developed that link the effect of a decision (e.g. human growth) to the change in ecosystem attributes from current conditions. It is this linkage that requires the "poly-disciplinary" coupling of knowledge and models from the behavioral, physical, and ecological sciences. In our experience another key component of making this successful linkage is development of a strong poly-disciplinary scientific team that can readily communicate complex disciplinary knowledge to non-specialists outside their own discipline. The time to build such a team that communicates well and has a strong sense of trust should not be underestimated. The research described in the presentation incorporated hydrologic, vegetation, avian, economic, and decision models into an integrated framework to determine the value of changes in ecological systems that result from changes in human water use. We developed a hydro-bio-economic framework for the San Pedro River Region in Arizona that considers groundwater, stream flow, and riparian vegetation, as well as abundance, diversity, and distribution of birds. In addition, we developed a similar framework for the Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico. There are six research components for this project: (1) decision support and scenario specification, (2) regional groundwater model, (3) the riparian vegetation model, (4) the avian model, (5) methods for displaying the information gradients in the valuation survey instruments (Choice Modeling and Contingent Valuation), and (6

  4. LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

    Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-04-04

    AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

  5. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Beaulieu Marie-Dominique

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs. The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis. The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original

  6. The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

    Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes

  7. Sequential decision analysis for nonstationary stochastic processes

    Schaefer, B.

    1974-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of making decisions concerning the state of nonstationary stochastic processes is given. An optimal decision rule, for the case in which the stochastic process is independent of the decisions made, is derived. It is shown that this rule is a generalization of the Bayesian likelihood ratio test; and an analog to Wald's sequential likelihood ratio test is given, in which the optimal thresholds may vary with time.

  8. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMICS OF QUALITY IN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES

    A. Sailaj

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In modern industries, much emphasis is given to quality as it is the most effective tool which can capture, retain and enlarge customer base. The customer satisfaction is the ultimate goal of business and no other strategy can achieve it other than attaining best quality. An improvement in quality enhances customer satisfaction, taper s manufacturing costs and of course in turn, increases productivity. But in business scenario, improving quality should be considered along with the expenses associated with it. The strategy should be to achieve high Quality in a most economic way. So identifying effective methods for the analysis of economics behind quality and reduction of costs associated with achieving quality is a serious potential management problem and should be looked in to and analyzed. Economics of Quality analysis which is also termed as cost of quality or quality cost analysis has emerged as a powerful management tool for assessing the present quality level of the organization and to identify the improvement opportunities and also supports in decision making. This paper presents a study on quality cost analysis of two manufacturing units and tries to analyze the interrelationships between quality cost categories using statistical methods. The secondary data collected from the financial records of two firms under manufacturing sector is used for this analysis. The Pearson product momentum correlation coefficient between different quality cost categories provides insight to the relationships between different quality cost elements and in turn helps management to set action priorities to be addressed to achieve good quality at lower cost. The regression analysis helps the management in estimation or prediction of the unknown value of one variable from the known value of the other variable.

  9. Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Support Research Priority Setting in Biomedical Translational Research Projects

    Gimon de Graaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Translational research is conducted to achieve a predefined set of economic or societal goals. As a result, investment decisions on where available resources have the highest potential in achieving these goals have to be made. In this paper, we first describe how multicriteria decision analysis can assist in defining the decision context and in ensuring that all relevant aspects of the decision problem are incorporated in the decision making process. We then present the results of a case study to support priority setting in a translational research consortium aimed at reducing the burden of disease of type 2 diabetes. During problem structuring, we identified four research alternatives (primary, secondary, tertiary microvascular, and tertiary macrovascular prevention and a set of six decision criteria. Scoring of these alternatives against the criteria was done using a combination of expert judgement and previously published data. Lastly, decision analysis was performed using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis, which allows for the combined use of numerical and ordinal data. We found that the development of novel techniques applied in secondary prevention would be a poor investment of research funds. The ranking of the remaining alternatives was however strongly dependent on the decision maker’s preferences for certain criteria.

  10. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  11. BERCENI VILLAGE - A SOCIAL-ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS

    Adina IORGA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Rural modernization aims at maintaining rural societies through occupational diversification that will improvequality of life and avoid rural exodus. It aims to acquire some features of the modern world such as those related totechnical, increased productivity, infrastructure, whereby rural community enriches its identity, acquiring newmeanings.This study is a close social-economical analysis of the countryside households of Berceni village. Berceniis in the southern county of Ilfov near Bucharest. It is based on the statistical data provided by National Institute ofStatistics. The data have been processed into the following indicators:age structure and gender, births and deaths,feminization, migration .Considering that human resources is the main factor in developing and moderinization ofrural space, this study is aimed to investigate as well, the posibility of diversifying inhabitants’ occupationsaccording to pshicologycal, social and economical resources.

  12. National Launch System comparative economic analysis

    Prince, A.

    1992-01-01

    Results are presented from an analysis of economic benefits (or losses), in the form of the life cycle cost savings, resulting from the development of the National Launch System (NLS) family of launch vehicles. The analysis was carried out by comparing various NLS-based architectures with the current Shuttle/Titan IV fleet. The basic methodology behind this NLS analysis was to develop a set of annual payload requirements for the Space Station Freedom and LEO, to design launch vehicle architectures around these requirements, and to perform life-cycle cost analyses on all of the architectures. A SEI requirement was included. Launch failure costs were estimated and combined with the relative reliability assumptions to measure the effects of losses. Based on the analysis, a Shuttle/NLS architecture evolving into a pressurized-logistics-carrier/NLS architecture appears to offer the best long-term cost benefit.

  13. Minimizing Uncertainties Impact in Decision Making with an Applicability Study for Economic Power Dispatch

    Wang, Hong [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wang, Shaobu [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Fan, Rui [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Zhuanfang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-09-30

    This report summaries the work performed under the LDRD project on the preliminary study on knowledge automation, where specific focus has been made on the investigation of the impact of uncertainties of human decision making onto the optimization of the process operation. At first the statistics on signals from the Brain-Computing Interface (BCI) is analyzed so as to obtain the uncertainties characterization of human operators during the decision making phase using the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This is then followed by the discussions of an architecture that reveals the equivalence between optimization and closed loop feedback control design, where it has been shown that all the optimization problems can be transferred into the control design problem for closed loop systems. This has led to a “closed loop” framework, where the structure of the decision making is shown to be subjected to both process disturbances and controller’s uncertainties. The latter can well represent the uncertainties or randomness occurred during human decision making phase. As a result, a stochastic optimization problem has been formulated and a novel solution has been proposed using probability density function (PDF) shaping for both the cost function and the constraints using stochastic distribution control concept. A sufficient condition has been derived that guarantees the convergence of the optimal solution and discussions have been made for both the total probabilistic solution and chanced constrained optimization which have been well-studied in optimal power flows (OPF) area. A simple case study has been carried out for the economic dispatch of powers for a grid system when there are distributed energy resources (DERs) in the system, and encouraging results have been obtained showing that a significant savings on the generation cost can be expected.

  14. THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF WATER IN TURKEY

    Filiz TUTAR

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Among the global problems since we met the phenomenon of globalization, the water has also taken its place. Economic analysis of water have become a topic of examination by many economist in recent years. Water is one of the important needs of human life. Water has an important place in respect of its role in maintaining a healty way of life. However, our country’s water resources are getting polluted day by day and the amount of water need the per capita is inceasing fast year by year due to population growth. Water quality can not be observed in Turkey and the necessarydata bank is unable to be formed. Protection of water resources and the evaluation of if in accordance with beneficial use can be only done with an integrated management mechanism. The purpose of this study is to make economic analysis of water located in natural resources. In this context the analysis of water supply and demand, the place of water in the economy, water resources and use of them in Turkey, in the World and EU, finally SWOT analysis of Turkey in terms of water resources were performed.

  15. Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

    Criminisi, A

    2013-01-01

    This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

  16. Using decision trees to predict benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea.

    Pesch, Roland; Pehlke, Hendrik; Jerosch, Kerstin; Schröder, Winfried; Schlüter, Michael

    2008-01-01

    In this article a concept is described in order to predict and map the occurrence of benthic communities within and near the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The approach consists of two work steps: (1) geostatistical analysis of abiotic measurement data and (2) calculation of benthic provinces by means of Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and GIS-techniques. From bottom water measurements on salinity, temperature, silicate and nutrients as well as from punctual data on grain size ranges (0-20, 20-63, 63-2,000 mu) raster maps were calculated by use of geostatistical methods. At first the autocorrelation structure was examined and modelled with help of variogram analysis. The resulting variogram models were then used to calculate raster maps by applying ordinary kriging procedures. After intersecting these raster maps with punctual data on eight benthic communities a decision tree was derived to predict the occurrence of these communities within the study area. Since such a CART tree corresponds to a hierarchically ordered set of decision rules it was applied to the geostatistically estimated raster data to predict benthic habitats within and near the EEZ.

  17. Thromboprophylaxis after cesarean section: decision analysis.

    Blondon, Marc

    2011-02-01

    Although venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the leading cause of maternal mortality in developed countries, the usefulness of preventive low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) after cesarean section remains a matter of controversy. This article will review a recent decision analysis addressing this question, comparing a 7-day LMWH with none in this setting. Prophylaxis with LMWH yielded the highest quality-adjusted life expectancy, with a net gain of 1.5 days per treated patient. Sensitivity analyses showed the incidence of VTE after cesarean section and the haemorrhagic risk related to LMWH to be critical, at threshold values of 0.22% and 0.24% respectively. In the hypothetical cases created by the authors, LMWH was safe but only marginally more effective in women with no risk factors. With the addition of other risk factors, reductions in VTE greatly outnumbered the increase in major hemorrhages. This study highlights the need to assess the individual thrombotic risk in women after a cesarean section.

  18. Economic analysis of recycling contaminated concrete

    Stephen, A.; Ayers, K.W.; Boren, J.K.; Parker, F.L. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1997-02-01

    Decontamination and Decommissioning activities in the DOE complex generate large volumes of radioactively contaminated and uncontaminated concrete. Currently, this concrete is usually decontaminated, the contaminated waste is disposed of in a LLW facility and the decontaminated concrete is placed in C&D landfills. A number of alternatives to this practice are available including recycling of the concrete. Cost estimates for six alternatives were developed using a spreadsheet model. The results of this analysis show that recycling alternatives are at least as economical as current practice.

  19. A Speech Act Analysis of Judicial Decisions

    BERNAL, Carlos L.

    2007-01-01

    According to the theory of speech acts, speech is a kind of action. He, who says something, does something. Certainly, when a judge or a court makes a decision, he or it says something. He performs some (locutionary) acts like uttering or writing some sentences. However, there is something further he does, namely, by uttering or writing some sentences in the appropriate context, he makes a judicial decision. In a judicial decision the judge says something about the law, the facts of the case,...

  20. Socio-economic Value Analysis in Geospatial and Earth Observation: A methodology review (Invited)

    Coote, A. M.; Bernknopf, R.; Smart, A.

    2013-12-01

    Many industries have long since realised that applying macro-economic analysis methodologies to assess the socio-economic value of a programme is a critical step to convincing decision makers to authorise investment. The geospatial and earth observation industry has however been slow to embrace economic analysis. There are however a growing number of studies, published in the last few years, that have applied economic principles to this domain. They have adopted a variety of different approaches, including: - Computable General Equilibrium Modelling (CGE) - Revealed preference, stated preference (Willingness to Pay surveys) - Partial Analysis - Simulations - Cost-benefit analysis (with and without risk analysis) This paper will critically review these approaches and assess their applicability to different situations and to meet multiple objectives.

  1. Introducing economic evaluation as a policy tool in Korea: Will decision makers get quality information? A critical review of published Korean economic evaluations

    K.-S. Lee (Kun-Sei); W.B.F. Brouwer (Werner); S.-I. Lee (Sang-Il); H.-W. Koo (Hye-Won)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractInterest in the use of economic evaluations in Korea as an aid for healthcare decision makers has been growing rapidly since the financial crisis of the Korean National Health Insurance fund and the separation in 2000 of the roles of prescribing and dispensing drugs. The Korean Health In

  2. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    Vickers Andrew

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

  3. Population-based clinical decision support: a clinical and economic evaluation.

    Eisenstein, Eric L; Anstrom, Kevin J; Edwards, Rex; Willis, Janese M; Simo, Jessica; Lobach, David F

    2012-01-01

    Governments are investing in health information technologies (HIT) to improve care quality and reduce medical costs. However, evidence of these benefits is limited. We conducted a randomized trial of three clinical decision support (CDS) interventions in 20,180 patients: email to care managers (n=3329), reports to primary care administrators (n=3368), letters to patients (n=3401), and controls (10,082). At 7-month follow-up, the letters to patients group had greater use of outpatient services and higher outpatient and total medical costs; whereas, the other groups had no change in clinical events or medical costs. As our CDS interventions were associated with no change or an increase in medical costs, it appears that investments in HIT without consideration for organizational context may not be sufficient to achieve improvements in clinical and economic outcomes.

  4. Robust decision analysis for environmental management of groundwater contamination sites

    Vesselinov, Velimir V; Katzman, Danny

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to many other engineering fields, the uncertainties in subsurface processes (e.g., fluid flow and contaminant transport in aquifers) and their parameters are notoriously difficult to observe, measure, and characterize. This causes severe uncertainties that need to be addressed in any decision analysis related to optimal management and remediation of groundwater contamination sites. Furthermore, decision analyses typically rely heavily on complex data analyses and/or model predictions, which are often poorly constrained as well. Recently, we have developed a model-driven decision-support framework (called MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) for the management and remediation of subsurface contamination sites in which severe uncertainties and complex physics-based models are coupled to perform scientifically defensible decision analyses. The decision analyses are based on Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT). We demonstrate the MADS capabilities by solving a decision problem related to optimal monitoring ...

  5. Decision making based on data analysis methods

    Sirola, Miki; Sulkava, Mika

    2016-01-01

    This technical report is based on four our recent articles:"Data fusion of pre-election gallups and polls for improved support estimates", "Analyzing parliamentary elections based on voting advice application data", "The Finnish car rejection reasons shown in an interactive SOM visualization tool", and "Network visualization of car inspection data using graph layout". Neural methods are applied in political and technical decision making. We introduce decision support schemes based on Self-Org...

  6. Diets and Health: How Food Decisions Are Shaped by Biology, Economics, Geography, and Social Interactions.

    Drewnowski, Adam; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2015-09-01

    Health is shaped by both personal choices and features of the food environment. Food-choice decisions depend on complex interactions between biology and behavior, and are further modulated by the built environment and community structure. That lower-income families have lower-quality diets is well established. Yet, diet quality also varies across small geographic neighborhoods and can be influenced by transportation, retail, and ease of access to healthy foods, as well as by attitudes, beliefs, and social interactions. The learnings from the Seattle Obesity Study (SOS II) can be usefully applied to the much larger, more complex, and far more socially and ethnically diverse urban environment of New York City. The Kavli HUMAN Project (KHP) is ideally positioned to advance the understanding of health disparities by exploring the multiple underpinnings of food decision making. By combining geo-localized food shopping and consumption data with health behaviors, diet quality measures, and biomarkers, also coded by geographic location, the KHP will create the first-of-its-kind bio-behavioral, economic, and cultural atlas of diet quality and health for New York City.

  7. Sex and the money--How gender stereotypes modulate economic decision-making: An ERP study.

    Fabre, Eve F; Causse, Mickael; Pesciarelli, Francesca; Cacciari, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    In the present event-related potential study, we investigated whether and how participants playing the ultimatum game as responders modulate their decisions according to the proposers' stereotypical identity. The proposers' identity was manipulated using occupational role nouns stereotypically marked with gender (e.g., Teacher; Engineer), paired with either feminine or masculine proper names (e.g., Anna; David). Greater FRN amplitudes reflected the early processing of the conflict between the strategic rule (i.e., earning as much money as possible) and ready-to-go responses (i.e., refusing unequal offers and discriminating proposers according to their stereotype). Responders were found to rely on a dual-process system (i.e., automatic and heuristic-based system 1 vs. cognitively costly and deliberative system 2), the P300 amplitude reflecting the switch from a decision making system to another. Greater P300 amplitudes were found in response to both fair and unfair offers and male-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting an automatic decision making based on heuristics, while lower P300 amplitudes were found in response to 3€ offers and the female-stereotyped proposers' offers reflecting a more deliberative reasoning. Overall, the results indicate that participants were more motivated to engage in a costly deliberative reasoning associated with an increase in acceptation rate when playing with female-stereotyped proposers, who may have induced more positive and emphatic feelings in the participants than did male-stereotyped proposers. Then, we assume that people with an occupation stereotypically marked with female gender and engaged in an economic negotiation may benefit from their occupation at least in the case their counterparts lose their money if the negotiation fails.

  8. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  9. Economic analysis of nutrition interventions for chronic disease prevention: methods, research, and policy.

    Wong, John B; Coates, Paul M; Russell, Robert M; Dwyer, Johanna T; Schuttinga, James A; Bowman, Barbara A; Peterson, Sarah A

    2011-09-01

    Increased interest in the potential societal benefit of incorporating health economics as a part of clinical translational science, particularly nutrition interventions, led the Office of Dietary Supplements at the National Institutes of Health to sponsor a conference to address key questions about the economic analysis of nutrition interventions to enhance communication among health economic methodologists, researchers, reimbursement policy makers, and regulators. Issues discussed included the state of the science, such as what health economic methods are currently used to judge the burden of illness, interventions, or healthcare policies, and what new research methodologies are available or needed to address knowledge and methodological gaps or barriers. Research applications included existing evidence-based health economic research activities in nutrition that are ongoing or planned at federal agencies. International and US regulatory, policy, and clinical practice perspectives included a discussion of how research results can help regulators and policy makers within government make nutrition policy decisions, and how economics affects clinical guideline development.

  10. Contaminant remediation decision analysis using information gap theory

    Harp, Dylan R

    2011-01-01

    Decision making under severe lack of information is a ubiquitous situation in nearly every applied field of engineering, policy, and science. A severe lack of information precludes our ability to determine a frequency of occurrence of events or conditions that impact the decision; therefore, decision uncertainties due to a severe lack of information cannot be characterized probabilistically. To circumvent this problem, information gap (info-gap) theory has been developed to explicitly recognize and quantify the implications of information gaps in decision making. This paper presents a decision analysis based on info-gap theory developed for a contaminant remediation scenario. The analysis provides decision support in determining the fraction of contaminant mass to remove from the environment in the presence of a lack of information related to the contaminant mass flux into an aquifer. An info-gap uncertainty model is developed to characterize uncertainty due to a lack of information concerning the contaminant...

  11. The art of decision-making in surgery. To what extent does economics influence choice?

    Vannelli, Alberto; Battaglia, Luigi; Poiasina, Elia; Belli, Filiberto; Bonfanti, Giuliano; Gallino, Gianfrancesco; Vitellaro, Marco; De Dosso, Sara; Leo, Ermanno

    2006-01-01

    Traditionally most surgeons have paid little attention to the costs of healthcare treatments. With the increase in the number of efficacious surgical alternatives, a distinct scarcity of available resources has emerged. Since the Eighties, the impact of surgical expenditure has been increasing everywhere. The causes are: medical progress, increased life expectancy, escalating costs and decreasing revenues. The surgeon has been increasingly forced to weigh up theories, doctrines and techniques of economics and management. This created new problems of choice. In any event, the surgeon's decision-making could lead to negative consequences if the primary concern is with the financial constraints and he is prompted simply to act rather than to achieve his therapeutic goal. In conclusion, although the impact of economic considerations is inevitable in the choice of surgery, the terms and methods involved in the process are rather ambiguous. In other words, surgeons face with the dilemma of the patient to whom the economist denies treatment. To be aware of this issue is the first step, but there is still much more to do in order to define the terms of action.

  12. Optimal Decision-Making in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (EOQ Model under Restricted Space: A Non-Linear Programming Approach

    M. Pattnaik

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the concept of fuzzy Non-Linear Programming Technique is applied to solve an economic order quantity (EOQ model under restricted space. Since various types of uncertainties and imprecision are inherent in real inventory problems they are classically modeled using the approaches from the probability theory. However, there are uncertainties that cannot be appropriately treated by usual probabilistic models. The questions how to define inventory optimization tasks in such environment how to interpret optimal solutions arise. This paper allows the modification of the Single item EOQ model in presence of fuzzy decision making process where demand is related to the unit price and the setup cost varies with the quantity produced/Purchased. This paper considers the modification of objective function and storage area in the presence of imprecisely estimated parameters. The model is developed for the problem by employing different modeling approaches over an infinite planning horizon. It incorporates all concepts of a fuzzy arithmetic approach, the quantity ordered and the demand per unit compares both fuzzy non linear and other models. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows developing an algorithm whose validity is illustrated through an example problem and ugh MATLAB (R2009a version software, the two and three dimensional diagrams are represented to the application. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied with respect to changes in different parameter values and to draw managerial insights of the decision problem.

  13. Use of multi-criteria decision analysis in regulatory alternatives analysis: a case study of lead free solder.

    Malloy, Timothy F; Sinsheimer, Peter J; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    Regulators are implementing new programs that require manufacturers of products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify, evaluate, and adopt viable, safer alternatives. Such programs raise the difficult question for policymakers and regulated businesses of which alternatives are "viable" and "safer." To address that question, these programs use "alternatives analysis," an emerging methodology that integrates issues of human health and environmental effects with technical feasibility and economic impact. Despite the central role that alternatives analysis plays in these programs, the methodology itself is neither well-developed nor tailored to application in regulatory settings. This study uses the case of Pb-based bar solder and its non-Pb-based alternatives to examine the application of 2 multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods to alternatives analysis: multi-attribute utility analysis and outranking. The article develops and evaluates an alternatives analysis methodology and supporting decision-analysis software for use in a regulatory context, using weighting of the relevant decision criteria generated from a stakeholder elicitation process. The analysis produced complete rankings of the alternatives, including identification of the relative contribution to the ranking of each of the highest level decision criteria such as human health impacts, technical feasibility, and economic feasibility. It also examined the effect of variation in data conventions, weighting, and decision frameworks on the outcome. The results indicate that MCDA can play a critical role in emerging prevention-based regulatory programs. Multi-criteria decision analysis methods offer a means for transparent, objective, and rigorous analysis of products and processes, providing regulators and stakeholders with a common baseline understanding of the relative performance of alternatives and the trade-offs they present.

  14. Empirical analysis between industrial structure and economic growth of china

    姚西龙; 尤津; 郝鹏飞

    2008-01-01

    In recent years,the relationship between the industrial structure and economic growth is more and more concerned by scholars. According to the theory of industrial structure and economic development, this article use regression analysis method that estimates the three major industries’ contribute to Chinese economic growth and use cluster analysis methods, then discuss how to optimize the indus-trial structure.

  15. Law and Technology Theory: Bringing in Some Economic Analysis

    Trosow, Samuel

    2010-01-01

    The author argues economic analysis needs to be explicitly included in an overall theory of law and technology. Differing approaches to the economics of information are considered, and the copyright policy environment of the 1990s is taken as an example of how the lack of substantive economic analysis resulted in poor policy-making.

  16. Modeling the Economics of Beach Nourishment Decisions in Response to Coastal Erosion

    Ware, M.; Ashton, A. D.; Hoagland, P.; Jin, D.; Kite-Powell, H.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.

    2012-12-01

    Beaches are constantly moving and changing. The dynamic transformations of beaches are mostly the result of the erosion of sand, which can occur through movements alongshore caused by waves, movements off-shore due to storms, or submersion due to sea-level rise. Predicted climate change impacts include potential changes in storminess and accelerated sea-level rise, which will lead to increased coastal erosion. At the same time, the number of people residing in coastal communities is increasing. The risks from eroding beaches (increased coastal flooding, damage to infrastructure, and displaced residents) are therefore increasing in number and scale; and coastal residents are taking actions to protect their homes. One such action is beach nourishment, where sand is added to a resident's property in order to widen the beach. We have developed an economic model of beach nourishment decision-making to investigate the relationship between the optimal volume and timing of beach nourishment and factors such as property value, erosion rate, and initial beach width. In this model, waterfront property owners nourish a beach when the losses in net rental income exceed the costs incurred from nourishing the beach. (Rental income is a function of property value, which in turn depends upon the width of the beach.) It is assumed that erosion and sea-level rise are related. We examine different nourishment scenarios, including one-time nourishment in the first year; constant annual nourishment; and a myopic decision process in which the homeowner nourishes the beach if property losses from erosion over the next five years are expected to exceed the cost of nourishment. One-time nourishment delays property flooding for both constant and accelerating sea level rise; however, this delay is more substantial under constant sea level rise. With continual nourishment, the beach can be maintained under constant sea-level rise, provided that the erosion rate is comparable to the additional

  17. Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a Delphi survey.

    Yoel Lubell

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A Delphi survey was conducted with malaria experts aiming to reach consensus on key parameters for public health and economic models, relating to the outcome of untreated febrile illnesses. Survey questions were stratified by malaria transmission intensity, patient age, and HIV prevalence. The impact of the variability in opinion on decision models is illustrated with a model previously used to assess the cost-effectiveness of malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Some consensus was reached around the probability that patients from higher transmission settings with untreated malaria would progress to severe disease (median 3%, inter-quartile range (IQR 1-5%, and the probability that a non-malaria illness required antibiotics in areas of low HIV prevalence (median 20%. Children living in low transmission areas were considered to be at higher risk of progressing to severe malaria (median 30%, IQR 10-58% than those from higher transmission areas (median 13%, IQR 7-30%. Estimates of the probability of dying from severe malaria were high in all settings (medians 60-73%. However, opinions varied widely for most parameters, and did not converge on resurveying. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the uncertainty around potential consequences of untreated malaria and bacterial illnesses. The lack of consensus on most parameters, the wide range of estimates, and the impact of variability in estimates on model outputs, demonstrate the importance of sensitivity analysis for decision models

  18. Socio-economic analysis in the transport sector

    This compendium is intended to be a tool for students in conducting socio-economic appraisals in the transport sector following the recommendations made by the Danish Manual for Socio-economic Appraisal (DMT, 2003). The appraisal process is in this compendium outlined as a step-by-step process...... is one of the most basic and tangible contributions to the planning and decision process within the transport sector when an initiative’s advantages and disadvantages are to be evaluated. The appraisal can be used both for political decision making as well as internally in organisations with planning...

  19. An Analysis of Design Decision-Making in Industrial Practice

    Ahmed, Saeema; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2002-01-01

    is examined. The analysis led to a deeper understanding of the decision-making activities undertaken by engineering designers in industrial practice. The decision-making episodes undertaken by individual designers were supported by design strategies, not by formal decision-making methods. This implies......This paper describes research that confronts a generic decision-making model with design strategies employed by experienced designers. The relationship between the decision-making activities proposed by the model and the eight design strategies identified by an empirical study of design work...... that designers in practice do not rely solely on methods to support their decision-making process, but also on the use of relevant design strategies....

  20. Texting while driving as impulsive choice: A behavioral economic analysis.

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Russo, Christopher T; Wirth, Oliver

    2015-10-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine the utility of a behavioral economic analysis to investigate the role of delay discounting in texting while driving. A sample of 147 college students completed a survey to assess how frequently they send and read text messages while driving. Based on this information, students were assigned to one of two groups: 19 students who frequently text while driving and 19 matched-control students who infrequently text while driving but were similar in gender, age, years of education, and years driving. The groups were compared on the extent to which they discounted, or devalued, delayed hypothetical monetary rewards using a delay-discounting task. In this task, students made repeated choices between $1000 available after a delay (ranging from 1 week to 10 years) and an equal or lesser amount of money available immediately. The results show that the students who frequently text while driving discounted delayed rewards at a greater rate than the matched control students. The study supports the conclusions that texting while driving is fundamentally an impulsive choice made by drivers, and that a behavioral economic approach may be a useful research tool for investigating the decision-making processes underlying risky behaviors.

  1. Patient participation in palliative care decisions: An ethnographic discourse analysis.

    Bélanger, Emmanuelle; Rodríguez, Charo; Groleau, Danielle; Légaré, France; MacDonald, Mary Ellen; Marchand, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The participation of patients in making decisions about their care is especially important towards the end of life because palliative care decisions involve extensive uncertainty and are heavily influenced by personal values. Yet, there is a scarcity of studies directly observing clinical interactions between palliative patients and their health care providers. In this study, we aimed to understand how patient participation in palliative care decisions is constructed through discourse in a community hospital-based palliative care team. This qualitative study combined ethnographic observations of a palliative care team with discourse analysis. Eighteen palliative care patients with cancer diagnoses, six family physicians, and two nurses were involved in the study. Multiple interactions were observed between each patient and health care providers over the course of 1 year, for a total of 101 consultations, 24 of which were audio-recorded. The analysis consisted in looking for the interpretive repertoires (i.e., familiar lines of argument used to justify actions) that were used to justify patient participation in decision-making during clinical interactions, as well as exploring their implications for decision roles and end-of-life care. Patients and their health care providers seldom addressed their decision-making roles explicitly. Rather, they constructed patient participation in palliative care decisions in a covert manner. Four interpretive repertoires were used to justify patient participation: (1) exposing uncertainty, (2) co-constructing patient preferences, (3) affirming patient autonomy, and finally (4) upholding the authority of health care providers. The results demonstrate how patients and health care providers used these arguments to negotiate their respective roles in decision-making. In conclusion, patients and health care providers used a variety of interpretive repertoires to covertly negotiate their roles in decision-making, and to legitimize

  2. Patient participation in palliative care decisions: An ethnographic discourse analysis

    Emmanuelle Bélanger

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The participation of patients in making decisions about their care is especially important towards the end of life because palliative care decisions involve extensive uncertainty and are heavily influenced by personal values. Yet, there is a scarcity of studies directly observing clinical interactions between palliative patients and their health care providers. In this study, we aimed to understand how patient participation in palliative care decisions is constructed through discourse in a community hospital-based palliative care team. This qualitative study combined ethnographic observations of a palliative care team with discourse analysis. Eighteen palliative care patients with cancer diagnoses, six family physicians, and two nurses were involved in the study. Multiple interactions were observed between each patient and health care providers over the course of 1 year, for a total of 101 consultations, 24 of which were audio-recorded. The analysis consisted in looking for the interpretive repertoires (i.e., familiar lines of argument used to justify actions that were used to justify patient participation in decision-making during clinical interactions, as well as exploring their implications for decision roles and end-of-life care. Patients and their health care providers seldom addressed their decision-making roles explicitly. Rather, they constructed patient participation in palliative care decisions in a covert manner. Four interpretive repertoires were used to justify patient participation: (1 exposing uncertainty, (2 co-constructing patient preferences, (3 affirming patient autonomy, and finally (4 upholding the authority of health care providers. The results demonstrate how patients and health care providers used these arguments to negotiate their respective roles in decision-making. In conclusion, patients and health care providers used a variety of interpretive repertoires to covertly negotiate their roles in decision-making, and to

  3. The power of science economic research and European decision-making : the case of energy and environment policies

    Rossetti di Valdalbero, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    This book highlights the interaction between science and politics and between research in economics and European Union policy-making. It focuses on the use of Quantitative tools, Top-down and Bottom-up models in up-stream European decision-making process through five EU policy case studies: energy taxation, climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and internalisation of external costs.

  4. Assessment of validation of health-economics decision models in intervention studies of seasonal influenza and breast cancer

    De Boer, P.T.; Frederix, G.W.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.F.; Vemer, P.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: We aimed to review recently published health-economic (HE) decision models to assess the reporting of validation efforts. An infectious disease (seasonal influenza, SI) and a chronic disease (breast cancer, BC) were used as examples, giving a preliminary insight in the reporting of valid

  5. Economic Efficiency Analysis for Information Technology in Developing Countries

    Ghassan F. Issa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The introduction of Information Technology (IT to government institutions in developing countries bears a great deal of risk of failure. The lack of qualified personnel, lack of financial support and the lack of planning and proper justification are just few of the causes of projects failure. Study presented in this study focused on the justification issue of IT projects through the application of Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA as part of a comprehensive Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA of IT Projects, thus providing management with a decision making tool which highlights existing and future problems and reduces the risk of failure. Approach: Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA based on Economic Efficiency Analysis (EEA was performed on selected IT projects from ministries and key institutions in the government of Jordan using a well established approach employed by the Federal Government of Germany (KBSt approach. The approach was then modified and refined to suit the needs of developing countries so that it captured all the relevant elements of cost and benefits both quantitatively and qualitatively and includes a set of guidelines for data collection strategy. Results: When IT projects were evaluated using CBA, most cases yielded negative Net Present Value (NPV, even though, some cases showed some reduction in operation cost starting from the third year of project life. However, when the CBA was applied as a part of a comprehensive EEA by introducing qualitative aspects and urgency criteria, proper justification for new projects became feasible. Conclusion: The modified EEA represented a systematic approach which was well suited for the government of Jordan as a developing country. This approach was capable of dealing with the justification issue, evaluation of existing systems and the urgency of replacing legacy systems. This study explored many of the challenges and inherited problems existing in the public sectors of developing

  6. Economic analysis of motor transport service efficiency on lease

    I.V. Klymenko

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In a dynamic economic environment of motor companies operation the development of organizational and methodological positions of economic analysis is required. It is economic analysis that allows us not only to determine the state of economic phenomenon, motor transport services in particular, but also to establish its cause and effect. The article suggests the methodology of economic analysis of motor transport services that includes three methodological components: 1 evaluation of the vehicle use effectiveness; 2 evaluation of transport services effectiveness; 3 evaluation of the vehicle leasing agreement effectiveness. The introduction of this technique in the studied companies revealed potential for raising efficiency.

  7. Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment in Canada: insights from an expert panel discussion.

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron; Hoch, Jeffrey; Siebert, Uwe

    2015-02-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), a decision-making tool, has received increasing attention in recent years, notably in the healthcare field. For Canada, it is unclear whether and how MCDA should be incorporated into the existing health technology assessment (HTA) decision-making process. To facilitate debate on improving HTA decision-making in Canada, a workshop was held in conjunction with the 8th World Congress on Health Economics of the International Health Economics Association in Toronto, Canada in July 2011. The objective of the workshop was to discuss the potential benefits and challenges related to the use of MCDA for HTA decision-making in Canada. This paper summarizes and discusses the recommendations of an expert panel convened at the workshop to discuss opportunities and concerns with reference to the implementation of MCDA in Canada.

  8. Economic analyses to support decisions about HPV vaccination in low- and middle-income countries: a consensus report and guide for analysts.

    Jit, Mark; Levin, Carol; Brisson, Marc; Levin, Ann; Resch, Stephen; Berkhof, Johannes; Kim, Jane; Hutubessy, Raymond

    2013-01-30

    Low- and middle-income countries need to consider economic issues such as cost-effectiveness, affordability and sustainability before introducing a program for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. However, many such countries lack the technical capacity and data to conduct their own analyses. Analysts informing policy decisions should address the following questions: 1) Is an economic analysis needed? 2) Should analyses address costs, epidemiological outcomes, or both? 3) If costs are considered, what sort of analysis is needed? 4) If outcomes are considered, what sort of model should be used? 5) How complex should the analysis be? 6) How should uncertainty be captured? 7) How should model results be communicated? Selecting the appropriate analysis is essential to ensure that all the important features of the decision problem are correctly represented, but that the analyses are not more complex than necessary. This report describes the consensus of an expert group convened by the World Health Organization, prioritizing key issues to be addressed when considering economic analyses to support HPV vaccine introduction in these countries.

  9. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  10. A Framework for Decision Analysis and Critique.

    1981-07-01

    strategies and mechanisms of judgment and choice as well as the phases of decision evaluation and the roles of feedback and learning in individual...o 𔃻 I14 - -4 C3 0 E H 41 -4 CJ EQ U) )4.w H Efl -- 40 H c 0 - 0 U) 4 E-1 0~ C44 P4 0 ca) V0- z LI, H Q) - 104. 00 -c -4Ln 4 I

  11. Thinking styles and decision making: A meta-analysis.

    Phillips, Wendy J; Fletcher, Jennifer M; Marks, Anthony D G; Hine, Donald W

    2016-03-01

    This meta-analysis examined whether tendencies to use reflective and intuitive thinking styles predicted decision performance (normatively correct responding) and decision experience (e.g., speed, enjoyment) on a range of decision-making tasks. A pooled sample of 17,704 participants (Mage = 25 years) from 89 samples produced small but significant weighted average effects for reflection on performance (r = .11) and experience (r = .14). Intuition was negatively associated with performance (r = -.09) but positively associated with experience (r = .06). Moderation analyses using 499 effect sizes revealed heterogeneity across task-theory match/mismatch, task type, description-based versus experience-based decisions, time pressure, age, and measure type. Effects of both thinking styles were strongest when the task matched the theoretical strengths of the thinking style (up to r = .29). Specific tasks that produced the largest thinking style effects (up to r = .35) were also consistent with system characteristics. Time pressure weakened the effects of reflection, but not intuition, on performance. Effect sizes for reflection on performance were largest for individuals aged either 12 to 18 years or 25+ (up to r = .18), and the effects of both reflection and intuition on experience were largest for adults aged 25+ (up to r = .27). Overall, our results indicate that associations between thinking styles and decision outcomes are context dependent. To improve decision performance and experience, decision architects and educators should carefully consider both individual differences in the decision maker and the nature of the decision task.

  12. Advancing School-Based Interventions through Economic Analysis

    Olsson, Tina M.; Ferrer-Wreder, Laura; Eninger, Lilianne

    2014-01-01

    Commentators interested in school-based prevention programs point to the importance of economic issues for the future of prevention efforts. Many of the processes and aims of prevention science are dependent upon prevention resources. Although economic analysis is an essential tool for assessing resource use, the attention given economic analysis…

  13. Barriers And Profits Of Distan ce Education In Operations Research Based Decision Analysis

    Tomasz Szapiro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Distance education and blended learning allow universities to lower costs, have more return on economies of scale, better control educational process and provide higher quality services for students. This process however requires specialized software to be used by a university. The paper tackles issues related with this approach and presents guidelines for construction of a framework for creating web-based education support software in quantitative area – the meta-framework that al lows for a rapid construction of web-based educational decision analysis software. The framework design in paper covers three aspect: (1 information system modeling, (2 decision problem modeling and (3 teaching process modeling. The information system modeling includes system architecture, servers, programming languages and technical design. The decision problem modeling prov ides means to present an abstract decision problem (and more generally - a problem where quantitative methods can be used and to model interaction between software and decision maker (i.e. a student learning a decision algorithm. Teaching process modeling includes support for linear teaching algorithm in the decision making process, further this can be extended into non-linear and hybrid teaching algorithms. As a proof of concept a working framework prototype named Combine! will be presented. The software’s usefulness was evaluated through a survey carried out on 234 students at Warsaw School of Economics.

  14. PROVE-IT trial: economic analysis

    Simona de Portu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the PROVE-IT (“Intensive versus moderate lipid lowering with statins after acute coronary syndromes” was a comparison of pravastatin 40 mg/die versus atorvastatin 80 mg/die in patients with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS. Aim: our aim was to investigate the economic consequence of high dose of atorvastatin vs usual-dose of pravastatin in Italian patients with a history of acute coronary syndrome. Methods: the analysis is conducted on the basis of clinical outcomes of the PROVE-IT study. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing high dose of atorvastatin (80 mg/die versus usual-dose of pravastatin (40 mg/die in the perspective of the Italian National Health Service. We identified and quantified medical costs: drug costs according to the Italian National Therapeutic Formulary and hospitalizations were quantified based on the Italian National Health Service tariffs (2008. Effects were measured in terms of morbidity reduction (number of deaths and frequency of hospitalizations. We considered an observation period of 24 months. The costs borne after the first 12 months were discounted using an annual rate of 3%. We conducted one and multi-way sensitivity analyses on unit cost and effectiveness. Results: the cost of pravastatin or atorvastatin therapy over the 2 years period amounted to approximately 664.684 millions euro and 909.006 euro per 1,000 patients respectively. Atorvastatin was more efficacious compared to pravastatin and the overall cost of care per 1,000 patients over 24 months of follow-up was estimated at 2.58 millions euro in the pravastatin and 2.57 millions euro in the atorvastatin group, resulting into a cost saving of about 11.000 euro. Discussion: this study demonstrates that high dose atorvastatin treatment leads to a reduction of direct costs for the National Health System. Atorvastatin therapy is dominant since it is both less costly and more effective than pravastatin. Results were sensitive to

  15. Decision aiding in plastic surgery: a multicriteria analysis

    Luiz Flávio Autran Monteiro Gomes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to present, through a real case, a practical way, based on Multicriteria Decision Aiding, to support decision making in Plastic Surgery. The case studied was a Caucasian woman of 36 years of age with mammarian hypertrophia with ptosis and abdominal lipodystrophy, making it necessary to select the most adequate techniques for the best aesthetic result. For this purpose, the multicriteria methods Even Swaps and PrOACT were used. Three plastic surgeons working in the city of Rio de Janeiro with equivalent professional experience were consulted as decision agents. In order to define the objectives to be achieved, the criteria relevant to the making of the decision and the alternatives which could be used were identified. Throughout this identification and in the later analysis the surgeons participated in the application of the methods, which contributed towards facilitating their acceptance of the multicriteria analysis in their decision making. It was confirmed, in this case study, that the use of Multicriteria Decision Aiding tends to make the medical decision more wide ranging and, above all, transparent. The plastic surgeons themselves validated the analysis, considering it fully consistent with their professional experience.

  16. Heart rate variability indicates emotional value during pro-social economic laboratory decisions with large external validity.

    Fooken, Jonas

    2017-03-10

    The present study investigates the external validity of emotional value measured in economic laboratory experiments by using a physiological indicator of stress, heart rate variability (HRV). While there is ample evidence supporting the external validity of economic experiments, there is little evidence comparing the magnitude of internal levels of emotional stress during decision making with external stress. The current study addresses this gap by comparing the magnitudes of decision stress experienced in the laboratory with the stress from outside the laboratory. To quantify a large change in HRV, measures observed in the laboratory during decision-making are compared to the difference between HRV during a university exam and other mental activity for the same individuals in and outside of the laboratory. The results outside the laboratory inform about the relevance of laboratory findings in terms of their relative magnitude. Results show that psychologically induced HRV changes observed in the laboratory, particularly in connection with social preferences, correspond to large effects outside. This underscores the external validity of laboratory findings and shows the magnitude of emotional value connected to pro-social economic decisions in the laboratory.

  17. Introducing economic evaluation as a policy tool in Korea: will decision makers get quality information? : a critical review of published Korean economic evaluations.

    Lee, Kun-Sei; Brouwer, Werner B F; Lee, Sang-Il; Koo, Hye-Won

    2005-01-01

    Interest in the use of economic evaluations in Korea as an aid for healthcare decision makers has been growing rapidly since the financial crisis of the Korean National Health Insurance fund and the separation in 2000 of the roles of prescribing and dispensing drugs. The Korean Health Insurance Review Agency (HIRA) is considering making it mandatory for pharmaceutical companies to submit the results of an economic evaluation when demanding reimbursement of new pharmaceuticals. The usefulness of the results of economic evaluations depends highly on the quality of the studies. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is to provide a critical review of economic evaluations of healthcare technologies published in the Korean context. Our results show that many studies did not meet international standards. Study designs were suboptimal, study perspectives and types were often stated incompletely, time periods were often too short, and outcome measures were often less than ideal. In addition, some articles did not distinguish between measurement and valuation of resource use. Capital, overhead and productivity costs were often omitted. Only half of the studies performed sensitivity analyses. In order to further rationalise resource allocation in the Korean healthcare sector, the quality of the information provided through economic evaluations needs to improve. Developing clear guidelines and educating and training researchers in performing economic evaluations is necessary.

  18. Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

    DAVIS,FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE,GREGORY C.; PICKETT,WILLIAM W.

    2000-03-01

    The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety.

  19. Integrated Approach To The Analysis Of The Quality Of Socio-Economic Regional Development Governance

    Roman Michailovich Kachalov

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Prospects of the methods of the analysis and improvement of quality of governance the socio-economic systems application, based conceptual provisions of the system theory of economics, multilevel stratification of the economic space and the operational economical risk management theory are considered. For mesoeconomics, the types of system resources of the economy are defined. Also, it is analyses the influence on the quality of governance socio-economic region development the disparity of different types of system economical resources. Potential possibilities of the improvement of quality of governance due to thinner stratification of economical space and improvement the interaction parameters of the main actors of regional economic space are revealed. Leaning on the operational theory of risk management, ways of justification of administrative, strategic decisions by identification of the relevant economic risk factors and on the basis of received information development the program of anti-risk measures are offered. The methodical solutions promoting successful introduction of considered tools in practice of regional government are proposed.

  20. Factors influencing first childbearing timing decisions among men: Path analysis

    Kariman, Nourossadat; Amerian, Maliheh; Jannati, Padideh; Salmani, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    Background: Factors that influence men’s childbearing intentions have been relatively unexplored in the literature. Objective: This study aimed to determine the influencing factors about the first childbearing timing decisions of men. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 300 men who were referred to private and governmental healthcare centers in Shahrood, Iran were randomly recruited from April to September 2014. Data were collected using a demographic questionnaire, the Quality of Life Questionnaire; ENRICH Marital Satisfaction Questionnaire, Synder’s Hope Scale, and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support. Results: After removing the statistically insignificant paths, men’s age at marriage had the highest direct effect (β=0.86) on their first childbearing decision. Marital satisfaction (β=-0.09), social support (β=0.06), economic status (β=0.06), and quality of life (β=-0.08) were other effective factors on men’s first childbearing decisions. Moreover, marital satisfaction and social support had significant indirect effects on men’s childbearing decisions (β=-0.04 and -0.01, respectively). Conclusion: Many factors, including personal factors (age at marriage and quality of life), family factors (marital satisfaction), and social factors (social support), can affect men’s decision to have a child. Policymakers are hence required to develop strategies to promote the socioeconomic and family conditions of the couples and to encourage them to have as many children as they desire at an appropriate time. PMID:27738661

  1. 卫生经济决策模型的应用%APPLICATION OF HEALTH ECONOMIC DECISION ANALYTICAL MODEL

    杨淑娟; 温圆圆; 邵英; 牛谨; 杨春霞

    2011-01-01

    Health economic decision analytical model (Markov model) has been widely used in the evaluation of the costeffective. cost-benefit and cost-utility of clinical trails. In order to establish the health economic decision analytical model, we have to determine some parameters and the basic situation of diseases as follows : the Markov chain of the development states of the diseases; the intervention of clinical trail, participants and main outcomes; the initial probability, transition probability and dead probability; the health utilities and related direct cost, indirect cost and invisible cost of treating diseases; the ranges of varies to perform sensitivity analysis. The related life expectancy and cost of treatment, effective, benefit, and utility cost caculated by the parameters above. Therefore, we could establish the long-term effect of clinical trails by results of the shortterm clinical trails to provide related reference for decision makers. Also, we could predict the long-term changes of morbidity and mortality of diseases so that to provide scientific basis for formulating intervention for diseases by Markov model. Finally,the model could forecast the natural history of disease to help the research of the diseases. Markov model has an important role in the economic evaluacion of the intervention, and the estimation of morbidity of diseases.%卫生经济决策模型(马尔可夫模型)已被广泛用于对临床试验的成本-效果,成本-效益,及成本-效用中的评价.建立此模型需要确定以下的参数和疾病的基本情况:疾病的演变状态马尔可夫链;临床试验的干预措施,干预人群和干预结果;疾病的初始概率,转移概率和死亡概率;健康效用值和治疗疾病的相关直接成本,间接成本和无形成本;需要做敏感度分析各值的变化范围.通过相关参数确定建立马尔可夫模型计算出相关期望寿命年和成本,而测算出相关效果,效益和效用值,最终对短期的

  2. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  3. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C;

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  4. Accelerating policy decisions to adopt haemophilus influenzae type B vaccine: a global, multivariable analysis.

    Jessica C Shearer

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Adoption of new and underutilized vaccines by national immunization programs is an essential step towards reducing child mortality. Policy decisions to adopt new vaccines in high mortality countries often lag behind decisions in high-income countries. Using the case of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib vaccine, this paper endeavors to explain these delays through the analysis of country-level economic, epidemiological, programmatic and policy-related factors, as well as the role of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI Alliance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 147 countries from 1990 to 2007 were analyzed in accelerated failure time models to identify factors that are associated with the time to decision to adopt Hib vaccine. In multivariable models that control for Gross National Income, region, and burden of Hib disease, the receipt of GAVI support speeded the time to decision by a factor of 0.37 (95% CI 0.18-0.76, or 63%. The presence of two or more neighboring country adopters accelerated decisions to adopt by a factor of 0.50 (95% CI 0.33-0.75. For each 1% increase in vaccine price, decisions to adopt are delayed by a factor of 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.04. Global recommendations and local studies were not associated with time to decision. CONCLUSIONS: This study substantiates previous findings related to vaccine price and presents new evidence to suggest that GAVI eligibility is associated with accelerated decisions to adopt Hib vaccine. The influence of neighboring country decisions was also highly significant, suggesting that approaches to support the adoption of new vaccines should consider supply- and demand-side factors.

  5. How do economic evaluations inform health policy decisions for treatment and prevention in Canada and the United States?

    Husereau, Don; Culyer, Anthony J; Neumann, Peter; Jacobs, Philip

    2015-06-01

    Canadian and US health systems have often been characterized as having vastly different approaches to the financing and delivery of healthcare, with Canada portrayed as more reliant on rationing based on costs. In this article, we examine the similarities and differences between the two countries, the evolution and current role of health economic evaluation, and the roles played by health economists. We suggest both countries have similarly used economic evaluation to a limited extent for drug and immunization decisions, with variability in use more of a reflection of the incompleteness of both systems and their inherent institutional barriers rather than political ideology.

  6. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.

  7. [Decision analysis in radiology using Markov models].

    Golder, W

    2000-01-01

    Markov models (Multistate transition models) are mathematical tools to simulate a cohort of individuals followed over time to assess the prognosis resulting from different strategies. They are applied on the assumption that persons are in one of a finite number of states of health (Markov states). Each condition is given a transition probability as well as an incremental value. Probabilities may be chosen constant or varying over time due to predefined rules. Time horizon is divided into equal increments (Markov cycles). The model calculates quality-adjusted life expectancy employing real-life units and values and summing up the length of time spent in each health state adjusted for objective outcomes and subjective appraisal. This sort of modeling prognosis for a given patient is analogous to utility in common decision trees. Markov models can be evaluated by matrix algebra, probabilistic cohort simulation and Monte Carlo simulation. They have been applied to assess the relative benefits and risks of a limited number of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures in radiology. More interventions should be submitted to Markov analyses in order to elucidate their cost-effectiveness.

  8. The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies

    Ioannis Trigonis; Ourania Matsouka; George Costa; George Tzetzis

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working in ...

  9. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALFALFA INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

    Ward, Clement E.; Dowdy, Alan K.; Berberet, Richard C.; Stritzke, Jimmie F.

    1990-01-01

    Integrated pest management (IMP) initially focused on insect pest control. More recently, IPM encompasses a broader concept of management, one which crosses several disciplinary boundaries. This article reports results of research dealing with four integrated management decisions for alfalfa (cultivar selection, inset control, weed control, and end-of-season harvest options.

  10. Managing wetlands: an ecological economic analysis of the Hong Kong Wetland Park

    2008-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of whether the Hong Kong government made a rational economic decision when it decided to set aside land to develop a Wetland Park,or whether it should have used the land for alternative commercial developments.Different analytical methods are used to estimate the economic value of the environmental benefits of the Wetland Park:the Value Transfer Method is used to estimate the economic value of the ecological services provided by the Park,the Direct Market Price analysis for the economic" value of the goods purchased in the Wetland Park,the Hedonic Housing Price Analysis jbr the value of the Park to those residing in its proximity,the Travel Cost and Contingent Valuation Method for the value of the Park to the visitors,and the Contingent Valuation for the Passive (Nonuse) Values of the Park.These benefits are compared to the opportunity cost of the land and the cost of running the Wetland Park.The article concludes that if a rate of 5% or less is used to discount future costs and benefits,we would find that the government's decision to set aside land for a Wetland Park was economically sound,while using a discount rate of 6% or more shows that it was not.

  11. Economic analysis of animal disease outbreaks--BSE and Bluetongue disease as examples.

    Gethmann, Jörn; Probst, Carolina; Sauter-Louis, Carola; Conraths, Franz Josef

    2015-01-01

    Although there is a long tradition of research on animal disease control, economic evaluation of control measures is rather limited in veterinary medicine. This may, on the one hand, be due to the different types of costs and refunds and the different people and organizations bearing them, such as animal holders, county, region, state or European Union, but it may also be due to the fact that economic analyses are both complex and time consuming. Only recently attention has turned towards economic analysis in animal disease control. Examples include situations, when decisions between different control measures must be taken, especially if alternatives to culling or compulsory vaccination are under discussion. To determine an optimal combination of control measures (strategy), a cost-benefit analysis should be performed. It is not necessary to take decisions only based on the financial impact, but it becomes possible to take economic aspects into account. To this end, the costs caused by the animal disease and the adopted control measures must be assessed. This article presents a brief overview of the methodological approaches used to retrospectively analyse the economic impact of two particular relevant diseases in Germany in the last few years: Blue-tongue disease (BT) and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE).

  12. Category theoretic analysis of single-photon decision maker

    Kim, Makoto Naruse Song-Ju; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Hori, Hirokazu

    2016-01-01

    Decision making is a vital function in the era of artificial intelligence; however, its physical realizations and their theoretical fundamentals are not yet known. In our former study [Sci. Rep. 5, 513253 (2015)], we demonstrated that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. The multi-armed bandit problem was successfully solved using the dual probabilistic and particle attributes of single photons. Herein, we present the category theoretic foundation of the single-photon-based decision making, including quantitative analysis that agrees well with the experimental results. The category theoretic model unveils complex interdependencies of the entities of the subject matter in the most simplified manner, including a dynamically changing environment. In particular, the octahedral structure in triangulated categories provides a clear understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the single-photon decision maker. This is the first demonstration of a category the...

  13. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

    Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

    2011-09-01

    Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied.

  14. Economic analysis of residential solar water heaters

    None

    1980-09-23

    A typical residential solar water heater, and typical cost and performance information are described briefly. The monthly costs and savings of the typical system are discussed. Economic evaluations of solar water heaters are presented in increasingly complex levels of detail. Utilizing a typical system, the effective interest rate that the purchaser of a system would receive on money invested is shown for all regions of the country. The importance of numerous variables that can make a significant difference on the economics of the system is described. Methods for calculating the Payback Period for any non-typical solar water heater are described. This calculated Payback Period is then shown to be related to the effective interest rate that the puchaser of the system would receive for a typical set of economic conditions. A method is presented to calculate the effective interest rate that the solar system would provide. (MHR)

  15. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    T. P. Karjalainen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  16. Economics, ethics and technology. Decision-taking bases for projects with long-term effects on the environment. Technikfolgen, Oekonomie und Ethik. Entscheidungsgrundlagen fuer Projekte mit langfristigen Umweltauswirkungen

    Bogai, D.

    1989-01-01

    The author's intention is to provide normative decision-taking bases for the assessment of projects with long-term effects on the environment by combining economic, ethical and social-philosophical approaches. The assessment principles of the cost/benefit analysis are discussed for their suitability for the assessment of such projects; alternative criteria of the decision-taking theory are also discussed. The study focusses on the identification of just principles to be applied in the handling of our vital natural resources. The author combines Rawl's contract theory approach with Kant's rationale for norms to determine minimum standards for the use of resources between the generations. However, a democratic process will have to make the choice between the different assessment methods eventually. (HSCH).

  17. The role (or not) of economic evaluation at the micro level: can Bourdieu's theory provide a way forward for clinical decision-making?

    Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

    2010-06-01

    Despite increasing interest in health economic evaluation, investigations have shown limited use by micro (clinical) level decision-makers. A considerable amount of health decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care. Since every decision has an opportunity cost, ignoring economic information in family physicians' (FPs) decision-making may have a broad impact on health care efficiency. Knowledge translation of economic evaluation is often based on taken-for-granted assumptions about actors' interests and interactions, neglecting much of the complexity of social reality. Health economics literature frequently assumes a rational and linear decision-making process. Clinical decision-making is in fact a complex social, dynamic, multifaceted process, involving relationships and contextual embeddedness. FPs are embedded in complex social networks that have a significant impact on skills, attitudes, knowledge, practices, and on the information being used. Because of their socially constructed nature, understanding preferences, professional culture, practices, and knowledge translation requires serious attention to social reality. There has been little exploration by health economists of whether the problem may be more fundamental and reside in a misunderstanding of the process of decision-making. There is a need to enhance our understanding of the role of economic evaluation in decision-making from a disciplinary perspective different than health economics. This paper argues for a different conceptualization of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making, and proposes Bourdieu's sociological theory as a research framework. Bourdieu's theory of practice illustrates how the context-sensitive nature of practice must be understood as a socially constituted practical knowledge. The proposed approach could substantially contribute to a more complex understanding of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making.

  18. California solar energy study: decision-analysis panel report

    Margolin, J.B.; Misch, M.R.

    1979-09-01

    In order to investigate motivations behind an individual's decision to purchase or not to purchase a solar energy system for a home, the California Energy Commission initiated a comprehensive survey program to analyze, in some depth, attitudes toward solar energy use. As part of that program, the CEC contracted for a series of panels comprised of homogenous groups of individuals who were not solar adopters, to probe for underlying attitudes about solar and, through the group dynamics process, elicit information which generally cannot be obtained using a standard questionnaire. The results shed additional light on consumer perceptions about the energy situation, the solar industry, economics, government's role and acceptance of the technology which, in turn, affect the individual's decision to adopt or not to adopt a solar energy device.

  19. Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions.

    Keller, L Robin; Wang, Yitong

    2016-09-21

    For the last 30 years, researchers in risk analysis, decision analysis, and economics have consistently proven that decisionmakers employ different processes for evaluating and combining anticipated and actual losses, gains, delays, and surprises. Although rational models generally prescribe a consistent response, people's heuristic processes will sometimes lead them to be inconsistent in the way they respond to information presented in theoretically equivalent ways. We point out several promising future research directions by listing and detailing a series of answered, partly answered, and unanswered questions.

  20. MARC21 y conceptos de economía en las decisiones bibliotecarias: MARC21 and economic concepts in the library-related decisions

    Luis A. Herrera

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available En el contexto profesional bibliotecológico de la catalogación moderna, y utilizando MARC21 en el marco internacional y la historia de los formatos, en Argentina como casos de estudio, se propone una metodología basada en la teoría de costo de oportunidad, extraída del campo de la economía, como elemento a considerar para la toma de decisiones.In the Library Science professional context of modern cataloging and studying MARC21 in the international framework on one hand, and the history of formats in Argentina on the other hand, it is suggested a methodology based on the opportunity cost theory, from the economic field, as an element to be considered for decision making.

  1. A basic analysis of cogeneration economics

    Collet, P.J.

    1989-01-01

    The economics of small scale gas turbine based cogeneration systems are analyzed on the basis of avoided costs for an electric utility exploiting such systems. This concerns a theoretical study in which the cogeneration system as a means for electricity generation is assumed to supplant the building

  2. Decision Analysis of Advanced Scout Helicopter Candidates

    1980-01-01

    assist the ASH SSG by constructing a comprehensive ASH evaluation model utilizing multi-attribute utility assessment ( MAUA ) modeling. ~~UA is a forre...results are included as well. The output of the MAUA model is a numerical representation of the worth of each ASH candidate. These numbers are...instance of a methodology called Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis ( MAUA ). In general, MAUA is characterized by the represen- tation of outcomes in terms

  3. Multicriteria Decision Analysis for banks risks evaluation

    Rakotoarivelo, Jean-Baptiste; ZARATÉ, Pascale; Razafimandimby, Josvah Paul

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This poster aims to observe a better choice for risks evaluation Financial organisms. Our aim is to support banks during operations of customers with respect to funding opportunities, investment or credits reaching. First of all, we identify different types of risks associated with this activity and we secondly analysed them thanks to a method of multicriteria analysis AHP (Analytic hierachy Process) with different means adopted to identify them. It should be noted tha...

  4. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Murawski, Carsten; Harris, Philip G; Bode, Stefan; Domínguez D, Juan F; Egan, Gary F

    2012-01-01

    Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness.

  5. Led into temptation? Rewarding brand logos bias the neural encoding of incidental economic decisions.

    Carsten Murawski

    Full Text Available Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness.

  6. Strategic Decision-Making and Social Skills: Integrating Behavioral Economics and Social Cognition Research

    Johannes Leder

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Strategic decisions are affected by beliefs about the expectations of others and their possible decisions. Thus, strategic decisions are influenced by the social context and by beliefs about other actors’ levels of sophistication. The present study investigated whether strategic decision-making, as measured by the beauty contest game, is associated with social skills, as measured by the Autism Quotient (AQ. In line with our hypothesis, we found that social skills were positively related to successful strategic decision-making. Furthermore, results showed a curvilinear relationship between steps of reasoning in the beauty contest game and social skills, indicating that very high as well as very low scoring individuals on the social skills subscale of the AQ engaged in high-levels of strategic thinking.

  7. Usage of «level of insecurity risk» indicator as criterion of decision making in department of enterprise economic security

    Ілляшенко, Олена Вікторівна

    2016-01-01

    System support of economic security is possible only in case of existence of economic security system at the enterprise. Form of objectification of such system is subdivision of enterprise economic security (department or division). Criteria of decision making in providing security for enterprise activity are important instruments among others instruments of department of enterprise economic security. One of such criteria is indicator «insecurity level». Its content is shown using antonymous ...

  8. Economic risk analysis and critical comparison of optimal biorefinery concepts

    Cheali, Peam; Posada, John A.; Gernaey, Krist

    2016-01-01

    value-added chemicals (diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene), provides an improved resilience and robustness against market price fluctuations by reducing economic loss by 140 MM$/a (17% IRR); (iii) the economic analysis favors biochemical conversion technologies for a small production/processing capacity...

  9. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so...

  10. Economic Analysis of World Bank Education Projects and Project Outcomes

    Vawda, Ayesha Yaqub; Moock, Peter; Gittinger, J. Price; Patrinos, Harry Anthony

    2003-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that World Bank education projects have a higher likelihood of being successful if at the time of appraisal, they underwent good quality economic analysis. Analysis shows a strong relationship between the quality of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis and the quality of project outcomes. Economic…

  11. Decision analysis: a primer and application to pain-related studies.

    Kim, Jaewhan; Nelson, Richard; Biskupiak, Joseph

    2008-01-01

    Decision analysis is a quantitative approach to decision making under uncertainty that explicitly states all relevant components of the decision, including statement of the problem, identification of the perspective of the decision maker, alternative courses of action and their consequences, and a model that illustrates the decision-making process. Decision trees and Markov models are used to provide a simplified version of complex clinical problems to help decision makers understand the risks and benefits of several clinical options. This article provides an introduction to decision analysis by describing the construction of decision trees and Markov models and employing examples from the recent literature.

  12. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SHOCKS AFFECTING EURO AREA

    MARIUS-CORNELIU MARINAS

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to explain the causes of economic shocks that are manifested in the euro area countries and to examine the possibilities of their adjustment in the context of a common monetary policy. The member countries of the European Monetary Union can not use its own exchange rate or monetary policy to neutralize the economic shocks. Therefore, they must find new ways to adjust the shocks such increase labor market flexibility and promoting reforms in the areas with significant structural rigidities. Common monetary policy also generates asymmetric shocks, as long as Member States are in different phases of the business cycle. In this study I have demonstrated that the ECB's monetary policy has favored Germany and has disadvantaged the countries confronted in present with problems of debt financing.

  13. Economic analysis of freeway town of Yunnan

    Zhao Junquan; Zhang Haixiang

    2009-01-01

    Freeway town in Yunnan is driving to promote the economic development ties.The development along the highway in the town will become the central point of the performance the high-intensive economy in space and will increase new economic growth point along highway the vertical and horizontal development of the area around the gradient the proliJeration Point and Area.The highway town will develop to speed up the urbanization process and China should accelerate the development of the freeway town.Encouraging farmers will shift the highway town where some good conditions will build to.form a regional economic development and growth.This will be the promotion an inevitable choice of progress and rational way of China's rural economic" and social prosperity.In particular,freeway town will bring more added value of other social services of accommodation and catering industry of wholesale and retail of transportation and warehousing.Highway town and agriculture industrialization development will increase agriculture industry chain to improve agricultural products value and will enhance agricultural efficiency in Yunnan.The concentration of the non-agricultural industries of the speedway town will form pillar industries of highway town and will promote of tertiary industry development of hotels of insurance of finance of business of sports of culture of education of communications of transportation.Rural areas of Yunnan will adjust to optimize the industrial structure.It is estimated that a total 10 construction of the highway town of Yunnan will increase 0.8-1 billion )man revenue each year.

  14. Economic analysis of spider web airline networks

    2009-01-01

    The distinct network organization, management, service and operating characteristics of US Southwest Airlines are key elements of its success compared with other airlines. As a network organization type, the spider web airline network has received more attention. In this paper, we analyzed the relation between the spider web airline network and spider web, and the structure of spider web airline network, built the assignment model of the spider web airline network,and investigated the economics concerned.

  15. Ecological-Economic Analysis of Wetlands

    R.K. Turner; Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Barendregt, A.; Maltby, E.

    1998-01-01

    Wetlands all over the world have been lost or are threatened in spite of various international agreements and national policies. This is caused by: (1) the public nature of many wetlands products and services; (2) user externalities imposed on other stakeholders; and (3) policy intervention failures that are due to a lack of consistency among government policies in different areas (economics, environment, nature protection, physical planning, etc.). All three causes are related to information...

  16. Health Economic Assessment: Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds and Other Decision Criteria

    Steven Simoens

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available An article published in this Journal argued that New Zealand does not apply a cost-effectiveness threshold because medicines are funded within a fixed budget and because cost-effectiveness is only one of nine criteria that inform decisions. This Comment has explained that, from a theoretical perspective, the cost-effectiveness threshold model is not inconsistent with these two arguments. The observed annual variation in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in New Zealand may originate from yearly differences in new medicines that request reimbursement and in the budget size, and from the fact that decision makers take into account other decision criteria in addition to cost-effectiveness.

  17. A Data Model for Algorithmic Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Cailloux, O.; Tervonen, T.; Verhaegen, B.; Picalausa, F.

    2014-01-01

    Various software tools implementing multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have appeared over the last decades. Although MCDA methods share common features, most of the implementing software have been developed independently from scratch. Majority of the tools have a proprietary storage

  18. Child Custody Decisions: Content Analysis of a Judicial Survey.

    Settle, Shirley A; Lowery, Carol R.

    1982-01-01

    Surveyed judges and trial commissioners (N=80) regarding child custody decisions in divorce. The content analysis described the responents' comments which clarified their reasons for attaching greater or lesser importance to a particular consideration or the method using in assessing a particular consideration during a court proceeding. (JAC)

  19. A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

    Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Yerace, P. [Dept. of Energy, Fernald, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management; Flora, J. [West Valley Demonstration Project, NY (United States); Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D. [Environmental Management Solutions, Mason, OH (United States)

    1998-05-01

    This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy`s West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach.

  20. Economic Analysis on Monetization of Soil Functions

    Zenglei; XI; Shaoqing; ZHANG

    2013-01-01

    On the basis of making clear diversity characteristics of soil functions and multiple characteristics of income, this paper points out that the monetization of soil functions based functional maintenance and change decision process can be regarded as a game process of different utilization methods at the background of different functions. The balance of this game process will determine monetary value of soil functions. After understanding money and monetization concepts, it introduces that measurability and exchangeability of soil functions provide objective conditions for monetization of soil functions. Finally, it discusses that usefulness value of soil functions provide basis for monetization of soil functions.

  1. The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Combating Economic Crisis. An Analysis Based on the Economic Literature

    Marius-Corneliu MARINAŞ

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to identify, in the economic literature, the main factors which constrain the transmission of the fiscal shocks to the real economy. The interest in finding the most efficient fiscal stimuli in recovery the economies passing through crisis period has got increased as soon as the expansionary monetary policy promoted by most of the central banks has not generated an increase of the confidence in the private economic agents and, as a consequence, an increase of consumption and of the private investments. Even though it represents the Keynesian solution for recovery the economies which have been affected by the crisis, the fiscal expansion promoted during the recession periods does not generate the same expected positive effects any more (increase of consumption, significant decrease of unemployment, increase of revenues in economy, as they are conditioned by the reaction of the private economic agents to the fiscal stimuli. For example, the decision to decrease taxation may not automatically generate the significant increase of consumption (a condition for spreading the multiplier effect in economy, under the terms of pessimism or of the difficulty to access loans. As a result, the fiscal multipliers tend to be rather proper, and their value decreases more during the deep economic recession periods.

  2. Scrutinizing The Epistemology of Islamic Economics: A Historical Analysis

    Nurizal Ismail

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The first International Conference on Islamic Economics was held in Makkah, in 1976. Economists, jurists and scholars met together to discuss issues of Muslim ummah. However, there was many books written related to Islamic economics in the history of Islamic civilization, especially in the period of Abbasid caliphate. The fact, development of knowledge in Islamic medieval had established the epistemology of Islamic economics itself. Moreover, the epistemology is a study of the theory of knowledge, the source of knowledge, the application of knowledge and limitation of knowledge. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the contribution of earlier Muslim thinkers to the source of Islamic economics and to identify the epistemology of Islamic economics as proposed by the Muslim thinkers in medieval period. As a result, this paper will propose the epistemology of Islamic economics by integrating Islamic heritage and modern economics that is not conflict with Islamic principles and values. To achieve its objectives; this study employs qualitative research by applying content and descriptive analysis. The finding of this study is that the earlier Muslim thinkers have contributed to the construction of epistemology in Islamic economics. Then, to construct the genuine of Islamic economics, tawhid must be put as a core of Islamic economic epistemology that directs the sources of knowledge which are rooted firstly from revealed and then rational knowledge by using appropriate methods.

  3. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.

  4. Bio-economic modeling to support insemination decisions in dairy cows

    Inchaisri, C.

    2011-01-01

    To achieve the optimal economic profit, the effort to increase milk production in a dairy cow has been generated. As a consequence of an increased milk production, it appears that the conception rate has been reported to decline during the last decade worldwide. For the optimal economics and to avoi

  5. A decision chart for assessing and improving the transferability of economic evaluation results between countries

    Welte, Robert; Feenstra, Talitha; Jager, Hans; Leidl, Reiner

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To develop a user-friendly tool for managing the transfer of economic evaluation results. METHODS: Factors that may influence the transfer of health economic study results were systematically identified and the way they impact on transferability was investigated. A transferability decisio

  6. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  7. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  8. Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

    Martin Sedlár

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

  9. Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

    Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

  10. Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

    Schuster, Rudy; Walters, Katie D.

    2015-01-01

    The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

  11. Economic openness and economic growth: A cointegration analysis for ASEAN-5 countries

    Klimis Vogiatzoglou

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers three channels of economic openness, namely FDI, imports, and exports, and examines their short-run and long-run effects on the economic growth in the five founding member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN over the period from 1980 to 2014. Besides the impact on the economic growth, the authors analyze all possible causal interrelationships to discern patterns and directions of causality among FDI, imports, exports, and GDP. The quantitative analysis, which is based on the vector error correction co-integration framework, is conducted separately for each country in order to assess their individual experiences and allow for a comparative view. Although the precise details differ across countries, the findings indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic openness and GDP in all ASEAN-5 economies. FDI, imports and exports have a significantly positive short-run and long-run impact on the economic growth. Our results also show that export-led growth is the most important economic growth factor in most countries, followed by FDI-led growth. Another crucial finding is the bi-directional causality between exports and FDI across the ASEAN-5 countries. This indicates the presence of direct and indirect effects on GDP and a self-reinforcing process of causality between those two variables, which strengthens their impact on the economic growth.

  12. Economic Analysis: An Approach to Provide Basic Guidance for Conducting and Reviewing Economic Analysis within the Venezuelan Navy.

    1986-06-01

    la Armada (EMGAR)-- Staff of the Navy ------------------------- 18 b. Direction de Presupuesto Programac ion Ecomica (DIPPE)-Direction of Budget and...Economic Programming -------------------- 18 c. Cornite De Programacion y Presupuesto (CPP)-- Programming and Budget Committee-----------18 3. Major...development. This analysis is included in the annual budget. b. Direction de Presupuesto Programaclon Ecomica (DIPPE)- Direction of Budget and Economic

  13. North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis

    2010-01-22

    found a secret weapon that has been a hit with North Koreans: South Korean “ Choco Pies,” a snack consisting of two large round cookies covered with...chocolate with a filling of marshmallow in between much like an Oreo cookie. Choco Pies have been so popular in the lunches provided to Kaesong...North Korea,” Reuters, June 4, 2009. 26 “N.Koreans Love Choco Pie,” Chosen Ilbo, May 23, 2009, English Internet edition. . North Korea: Economic

  14. Maternal serologic screening to prevent congenital toxoplasmosis: a decision-analytic economic model.

    Eileen Stillwaggon

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To determine a cost-minimizing option for congenital toxoplasmosis in the United States. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A decision-analytic and cost-minimization model was constructed to compare monthly maternal serological screening, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French (Paris protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses are used to evaluate robustness of results. Universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French protocol, is found to be cost-saving, with savings of $620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection in pregnancy. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of $12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. If universal testing generates economies of scale in diagnostic tools-lowering test costs to about $2 per test-universal screening is cost-saving at rates of congenital infection well below the lowest reported rates in the United States of 1 per 10,000 live births. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities.

  15. Assessment of Transport Projects: Risk Analysis and Decision Support

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2008-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is risk analysis and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessment. During my research I have observed a tendency in studies of assessing transport projects of overlooking the substantial amount of uncertainties within the decision making process....... Even though vast amounts of money are spent upon preliminary models, environmental investigations, public hearings, etc., the resulting outcome is given by point estimates, i.e. in terms of net present values or benefit-cost rates. This thesis highlights the perspective of risks when assessing...... transport projects, namely by moving from point estimates to interval results. The main focus of this Ph.D. study has been to develop a valid, flexible and functional decision support tool in which risk oriented aspects of project evaluation is implemented. Throughout the study six papers have been produced...

  16. Insurance Contract Analysis for Company Decision Support in Acquisition Management

    Chernovita, H. P.; Manongga, D.; Iriani, A.

    2017-01-01

    One of company activities to retain their business is marketing the products which include in acquisition management to get new customers. Insurance contract analysis using ID3 to produce decision tree and rules to be decision support for the insurance company. The decision tree shows 13 rules that lead to contract termination claim. This could be a guide for the insurance company in acquisition management to prevent contract binding with these contract condition because it has a big chance for the customer to terminate their insurance contract before its expired date. As the result, there are several strong points that could be the determinant of contract termination such as: 1) customer age whether too young or too old, 2) long insurance period (above 10 years), 3) big insurance amount, 4) big amount of premium charges, and 5) payment method.

  17. The Private Military Industry: Economic Analysis, Uses & Considerations

    2007-03-01

    SUBJECT TERMS Private Military Industry, Private Military Company, Private Military Firm, Mercenary, Five Forces Analysis, Transaction Cost Economics...industry and its implications, a focused examination of industrial analysis, Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), entrepreneurship, and problematic areas is...02/11/2007). 273 J. E. Fredland, “Outsourcing Military Force: A Transaction Cost Perspective on the Roles of Military Companies,” Defense and Peace

  18. The science of ecological economics: a content analysis of Ecological Economics, 1989-2004.

    Luzadis, Valerie A; Castello, Leandro; Choi, Jaewon; Greenfield, Eric; Kim, Sung-kyun; Munsell, John; Nordman, Erik; Franco, Carol; Olowabi, Flavien

    2010-01-01

    The Ecological Economics journal is a primary source for inquiry on ecological economics and sustainability. To explore the scholarly pursuit of ecological economics, we conducted a content analysis of 200 randomly sampled research, survey, and methodological articles published in Ecological Economics during the 15-year period of 1989-2004. Results of the analysis were used to investigate facets of transdisciplinarity within the journal. A robust qualitative approach was used to gather and examine data to identify themes representing substantive content found within the span of sampled journal papers. The extent to which each theme was represented was counted as well as additional data, such as author discipline, year published, etc. Four main categories were revealed: (1) foundations (self-reflexive themes stemming from direct discussions about ecological economics); (2) human systems, represented by the themes of values, social indicators of well-being, intergenerational distribution, and equity; (3) biophysical systems, including themes, such as carrying capacity and scarcity, energy, and resource use, relating directly to the biophysical aspects of systems; and (4) policy and management encompassing themes of development, growth, trade, accounting, and valuation, as well as institutional structures and management. The results provide empirical evidence for discussing the future direction of ecological economic efforts.

  19. From partial to total economic analysis. Five applications to environmental and energy economics

    Hoffmann, T.

    2006-05-04

    The studies presented in this thesis address the consequences of market distortions of governmental policies - predominantly in the area of environmental and energy policy. The studies cover different economic aggregation levels: The first study aims at investigating firm-level effects. Thus, the results refer only to a small number of well-defined economic entities, e.g. electricity supply companies in Germany. Subsequently, issues - such as the evaluation of efficiency effects of the European Emissions Trading system - are addressed on a multi-sectoral and multi-regional level, but still only one market is considered. Thereupon, the scope of investigation is broadened by interactions of different markets - e.g. as in the case of the economic evaluation of renewable energy promotion strategies. Finally, a general equilibrium analysis of a European nuclear phase-out scenario covers all economic feed-backs on the national and international level. (orig.) 5.

  20. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

  1. Interdisciplinary Success Of Law And Economy: Economic Analysis Of Law

    Ivana Barković

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Economic analysis of law defines as an application of economic theory and economic methods in studies of forming, structure, process and influence of the law and legal institution. Although many comment that it is the question of a new scientific discipline or contemporary intellectual movement, the economic analysis of law reaches even the classics of economic thought Adam Smith and David Hume but the real recognition of the analysis was the publishing of the famous article of Ronald Coase (1960 “Problem of Public Expense” . Here he discusses how the incentives for damage reduction and various negativities come from the allocation of property rights. The aim of this work is to present an economic analysis of law as an interdisciplinary success of two great fields – law and economy, i.e. to present the way on which economy helps to understand law in a new way. Realizing it, the economy uses mathematically precise theories (e.g. price theory, game theory etc. and empirically firm methods (statistics and econometrically to analyse the impact of prices, i.e. of sanctions on behaviour. The article shows basic economic analyses of law which especially cite the contract law and balance law.

  2. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY IN BROILERS FATTENING

    L. SABAU

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper aimed to analyze economic efficiency in broilers fattening . In this purpose , the study was carried out at Breading Prod Commercial Company, Giarmata, Timis County . The economic and financial results of two series of broilers fattening have been comparatively analyzed based on the following specific indicators variable costs ( one day chicken supply , medicines, disinfectants , veterinary services , straw bed, feeding, fuels, electricity , watering , labor force , fixed costs ( rent, interest, fixed assets depreciation , communication and other taxes , total production costs , cost per marketed broiler, cost per square meter , cost per kg live weight , gross margin , incomes ( incomes coming from marketed broilers and subsidies , profit, profit rate , profit per marketed broiler, profit per square meter, profit per kg live weight , costs to 1,000 incomes and incomes to 1,000 costs. This comparison proved that the higher the chickens series size , the higher costs and incomes . The both fatenning series have profitable but the series S2 registered lower financial performances .

  3. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  4. Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes

    Caillol, Marie-Hélène

    2012-01-01

    Political anticipation (PA), as practiced by Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique, is a method for improving the capacity to understand trends and forecast events with the aim of influencing events on a large or small scale. Our operational definition of anticipation is 'To foresee in order to act.' Intended to be efficient and of immediate use, PA is conceived as a decision-making tool for all types of decision-makers: politicians, economists, administrators, business leaders, private investors, educators, as well as heads of households. Everyone, in a professional or private role, makes important decisions (for employees, for business operations and commerce, for family, for investments, for jurisdictions, and for the country and economic zone, among other areas in which the polis is involved). Given the dynamics of reality in our times, every decision appears as a wager on the future. It is also related to the wish or desire to obtain the best outcome for risk assumed (which a wager entails) and the effort expended.

  5. SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION TO ECONOMICS DATA

    Hossein HASSANI; Anatoly ZHIGLJAVSKY

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the methodology of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and demonstrate that it is a powerful method of time series analysis and forecasting, particulary for economic time series. The authors consider the application of SSA to the analysis and forecasting of the Iranian national accounts data as provided by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of lran.

  6. A Framework for an Organic Approach for the Analysis of Institutional Transplants in the Economic Context

    Dyanko Minchev

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Institutional transplants is the name given to formal institutions which are transferred from one institutional setting to another. They are one of the possible channels for institutional change. The success of an institutional transplant depends on its interaction with its new environment. Previous research, based on the methodology of neoclassical economics (and to some extent - of the new institutional economics, is limited in its ability to predict the success of such transplants. We propose a framework for an organic approach for the analysis of institutional transplants in the economic context, which has a potential to overcome these limitations. This could enable policy-makers to take better decisions when undertaking institutional reforms.

  7. The impact of financial balance indicators on the companies - Analysis on economic sectors

    Iustin Dalea

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the result of a financial balance analysis of some companies, which are grouped in three economic sectors: manufacturing, construction and tourism. The main focus consists in the impact of the three financial balance indicators have (floating capital, necessary working capital, net treasury on the activities that underline each economic sector. The applicative part of this paper is materialized in a scientific approach that includes a number of 27 companies, grouped after the domain, from Timis County, Romania, which has in view to obtain useful and perspective information concerning the financial balance, based on the specific behavior of the activity they perform, aiming also the possibility of taking useful and correct decisions. This approach represents our own vision about the differences of achieving a financial balance state within each economic sector analyzed.

  8. Analysis of Production and Location Decisions by Means of Multi-Criteria Analysis

    P. Nijkamp (Peter); J. Spronk (Jaap)

    1979-01-01

    textabstractDuring the last few years economists and operations researchers have paid much attention to multi-criteria analysis as a tool in modern decision-making. The basic feature of multi-criteria analysis is the fact that a wide variety of relevant decision aspects can be taken into account wit

  9. An economic analysis of migration in Mexico.

    Greenwood, M J; Ladman, J R

    1978-07-01

    This paper analyzes internal migration in Mexico over the 1960-70 period. A model of the determinants of migration is specified and estimated for aggregated interstate migration flows. Results show that distance serves as a significant deterrent to migration, that higher destination earning levels are attractive to migrants, and that regions with high unemployment rates experience lower rates of inmigration. An unanticipated finding is that regions with higher earning levels have greater rates of outmigration. The data are disaggregated to examine separate migration relationships for each state. The results are that distance is a lesser deterrent for those migrants with more accessible alternatives, that higher earning levels reduce the deterring effects of distance, and that regions with higher earning levels have lower associated elasticities of migration. It is concluded that economic factors have played a crucial role in internal migration and thus in the changing occupational and geographic structure of the Mexican labor force.

  10. Clustering Analysis of Black-start Decision-making with a Large Group of Decision-makers

    2012-01-01

    The optimization of black start decisiommaking plays an important role in the rapid restoration of a power system after a major failure/outage. With the introduction of the concept of smart grids and the development of real-time communication networks, the black-start decision-makers are no longer limited to only one or a few power system experts such as dispatchers, but rather a large group of professional people in practice. The overall behaviors of a large decision-making group of decision-makers/experts are more complicated and unpredictable. However, the existing methods for black-start decision-making cannot handle the situations with a large group of decision-makers. Given this background, a clustering algorithm is presented to optimize the black-start decision-making problem with a large group of decision-makers. Group decision-making preferences are obtained by clustering analysis, and the final black-start decisiommaking results are achieved by combining the weights of black-start indexes and the preferences of the decision-making group. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by a practical case. This work extends the black-start decision-making problem to situations with a large group of decision-makers.

  11. A meta-analysis of economic diplomacy and its effect on international economic flows

    S.J.V. Moons (Selwyn); P.A.G. van Bergeijk (Peter)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis meta-analysis deals with 29 empirical studies on the trade and investment impact of economic diplomacy (embassies, consulates and other diplomatic facilities, investment and export promotion offices, trade and state visits). The meta-regression results suggest that the significance

  12. Genetic factors of individual differences in decision making in economic behavior: A Japanese twin study using the Allais problem

    Chizuru eShikishima

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary utility even when objective information of probabilities and rewards are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more rational. We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20–47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of rational decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

  13. Genetic Factors of Individual Differences in Decision Making in Economic Behavior: A Japanese Twin Study using the Allais Problem.

    Shikishima, Chizuru; Hiraishi, Kai; Yamagata, Shinji; Ando, Juko; Okada, Mitsuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Why does decision making differ among individuals? People sometimes make seemingly inconsistent decisions with lower expected (monetary) utility even when objective information of probabilities and reward are provided. It is noteworthy, however, that a certain proportion of people do not provide anomalous responses, choosing the alternatives with higher expected utility, thus appearing to be more "rational." We investigated the genetic and environmental influences on these types of individual differences in decision making using a classical Allais problem task. Participants were 1,199 Japanese adult twins aged 20-47. Univariate genetic analysis revealed that approximately a third of the Allais problem response variance was explained by genetic factors and the rest by environmental factors unique to individuals and measurement error. The environmental factor shared between families did not contribute to the variance. Subsequent multivariate genetic analysis clarified that decision making using the expected utility theory was associated with general intelligence and that the association was largely mediated by the same genetic factor. We approach the mechanism underlying two types of "rational" decision making from the perspective of genetic correlations with cognitive abilities.

  14. STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

    Vazakidis Athanasios

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Greece for the period 1978-2007 using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM. Questions were raised whether stock market development causes economic growth taking into account the negative effect of interest rate on stock market development. The purpose of this study was to investigate the short-run and the long-run relationship between the examined variables applying the Johansen co-integration analysis. To achieve this objective unit root tests were carried out for all time series data in their levels and their first differences. Johansen co-integration analysis was applied to examine whether the variables are co-integrated of the same order taking into account the maximum eigenvalues and trace statistics tests. Finally, a vector error correction model was selected to investigate the long-run relationship between stock market development and economic growth. A short-run increase of economic growth per 1% induced an increase of stock market index 0.41% in Greece, while an increase of interest rate per 1% induced a relative decrease of stock market index per 1.42% in Greece. The estimated coefficient of error correction term was statistically significant and had a negative sign, which confirmed that there was not any problem in the long-run equilibrium between the examined variables. The results of Granger causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional causality between stock market development and economic growth with direction from economic growth to stock market development and a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and interest rate with direction from economic growth to interest rate. Therefore, it can be inferred that economic growth has a direct positive effect on stock market development while interest rate has a negative effect on stock market development and economic growth respectively.

  15. Economic impacts on the United States of siting decisions for the international thermonuclear experimental reactor

    Peerenboom, J.P.; Hanson, M.E.; Huddleston, J.R. [and others

    1996-08-01

    This report presents the results of a study that examines and compares the probable short-term economic impacts of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) on the United States (U.S.) if (1) ITER were to be sited in the U.S., or (2) ITER were to be sited in one of the other countries that, along with the U.S., is currently participating in the ITER program. Life-cycle costs associated with ITER construction, operation, and decommissioning are analyzed to assess their economic impact. A number of possible U.S. host and U.S. non-host technology and cost-sharing arrangements with the other ITER Parties are examined, although cost-sharing arrangements and the process by which the Parties will select a host country and an ITER site remain open issues. Both national and local/regional economic impacts, as measured by gross domestic product, regional output, employment, net exports, and income, are considered. These impacts represent a portion of the complex, interrelated set of economic considerations that characterize U.S. host and U.S. non-host participation in ITER. A number of other potentially important economic and noneconomic considerations are discussed qualitatively.

  16. TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL ANALYSIS OF LOGGING CONTRACTORS

    Abilio Donizetti de Morais Filho

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to describe the financial conditions of forestry contractors, concerning life quality aspects, condition of work and equipments, operational costs, and economic credit to invest in new technologies. Five companies had been analyzed, with an annual income between US$ 400,000.00 and US$ 1,720,000.00, with an average of US$ 950,000.00. The number of employees varied between 33 and 181, and the companies were classified in terms of size as: one small, two average, and two big. The main difficulties to invest in new machines were high financial taxes, more than 12% an year, and a lack of long term contracts to guarantee the payment capability. It was observed that the contractors did not consider the capital remuneration and a correct depreciation of machines, resulting in an average machine life higher than 10 years. The final conclusions were that the costs were above the paid values for the services, when computed the depreciation and capital remuneration, with negative results in the financial analyzes of three companies. Finally, the mechanization process increased the workers life quality, however, the annual income was around US$ 2,112.00 per worker, approximately 39% lower than the average Brazilian population.

  17. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  18. Designing economic evaluations to facilitate optimal decisions: the need to avoid bias

    Lee KM

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Karen M Lee,1,3 Kathryn Coyle,2 Doug Coyle2,31Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH, Ottawa, ON, Canada; 2Health Economics Research Group, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK; 3School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, CanadaGuertin et al1 argue in their article “Bias within economic evaluations” that if researchersfail to incorporate the future availability of generics entrants for new patented drugs, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER will be overestimated.1 Before addressing the validity of this argument, it is first worthwhile to consider the nature of both bias and economic evaluation.Read the original paper by Guertin et al 

  19. Evidence for the credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making

    Søgaard, Rikke; Lindholt, Jes S.

    2012-01-01

    extracted and the models were assessed for quality against guidelines for best practice by a multidisciplinary team. RESULTS: Seven models were identified and found to provide divergent guidance. Only three reports met 10 of the 15 quality criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers in the field seem to have...... benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic...

  20. Comparative Analysis of Serial Decision Tree Classification Algorithms

    Matthew Nwokejizie Anyanwu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Classification of data objects based on a predefined knowledge of the objects is a data mining and knowledge management technique used in grouping similar data objects together. It can be defined as supervised learning algorithms as it assigns class labels to data objects based on the relationship between the data items with a pre-defined class label. Classification algorithms have a wide range of applications like churn prediction, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, and credit card rating etc. Also there are many classification algorithms available in literature but decision trees is the most commonly used because of its ease of implementation and easier to understand compared to other classification algorithms. Decision Tree classification algorithm can be implemented in a serial or parallel fashion based on the volume of data, memory space available on the computer resource and scalability of the algorithm. In this paper we will review the serial implementations of the decision tree algorithms, identify those that are commonly used. We will also use experimental analysis based on sample data records (Statlog data sets to evaluate the performance of the commonly used serial decision tree algorithms

  1. Decision analysis of treatment choices in the osteochondroses.

    Bunch, W H

    1981-01-01

    Physicians tend to decry the lack of data on which they can make decisions. This is commendable, and all should encourage the pursuit of better data and more precise analysis. But decisions must be made, and each physician must deal with what data are available and evaluate them against all the general uncertainties. Equally important are the values that we place on the outcome of treatment. Much of the disagreement among physicians about treatment protocols involves a difference in values. While this is not necessarily bad, it points to the need to consider explicitly the value we place on a result or the morbidity possibly accompanying that result. In the osteochondroses, consideration of values will protect patients from overzealous treatment. Finally, the formality of a decision process should not necessarily modify a plan of treatment based on fundamentally sound principles, intuition, and anecdotal experience. Regardless of which factors represent the basis for an individual surgeon's selection of a particular approach, evaluation of both desirable and undesirable aspects of each alternative prevents impulsive acceptance of the most recently described, often unproven operation. Salter's aphorism: "The decision is more important than the incision," is particularly applicable in treatment of the osteochondroses.

  2. Economic Analysis in Series-Distillation Desalination

    Mirna Rahmah Lubis

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to produce potable water economically is the primary purpose of seawater desalination research. Reverse osmosis (RO and multi-stage flash (MSF cost more than potable water produced from fresh water resources. Therefore, this research investigates a high-efficiency mechanical vapor-compression distillation system that employs an improved water flow arrangement. The incoming salt concentration was 0.15% salt for brackish water and 3.5% salt for seawater, whereas the outgoing salt concentration was 1.5% and 7%, respectively. Distillation was performed at 439 K and 722 kPa for both brackish water feed and seawater feed. Water costs of the various conditions were calculated for brackish water and seawater feeds using optimum conditions considered as 25 and 20 stages, respectively. For brackish water at a temperature difference of 0.96 K, the energy requirement is 2.0 kWh/m3. At this condition, the estimated water cost is $0.39/m3 achieved with 10,000,000 gal/day distillate, 30-year bond, 5% interest rate, and $0.05/kWh electricity. For seawater at a temperature difference of 0.44 K, the energy requirement is 3.97 kWh/m3 and the estimated water cost is $0.61/m3. Greater efficiency of the vapor compression system is achieved by connecting multiple evaporators in series, rather than the traditional parallel arrangement. The efficiency results from the gradual increase of salinity in each stage of the series arrangement in comparison to parallel. Calculations using various temperature differences between boiling brine and condensing steam show the series arrangement has the greatest improvement at lower temperature differences. Keywords: desalination, dropwise condensation, mechanical-vapor compression

  3. Analysis of economic impacts of the Hangzhou-Ningbo expressway

    刘南

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway (in Zhejiang Province of the People's Republic of China) on the region's economic development. An econometric model shows the estimated contributions attributable to the expressway have increased year by year. And statistical data indicate that the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway has promoted to some extent the region's economic development in various aspects.

  4. Analysis of economic impacts of the Hangzhou-Ningbo expressway

    刘南

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway (in Zhejiang Province of the People' s Republic of China) on the region' s economic development. An econometric model shows the estimated contributions attributable to the expressway have increased year by year. And statistical data indicate that the Hangzhou-Ningbo Expressway has promoted to some extent the region's economic devel-opment in various aspects.

  5. Techno-economical Analysis of Indoor Enterprise Solutions

    Liu, Zhen

    2013-01-01

    and the proposed centralized coordinated scheduling system. The proposed system is proved capable of achieving the best overall performance. Subsequently, we conduct the financial economic analysis for indoor DAS and Femto systems based on the TCO analysis. For very high data-rate in-building deployment, the Femto...

  6. Financial liberalization and economic growth : A meta-analysis

    Bumann, Silke; Hermes, Niels; Lensink, Robert

    2013-01-01

    This study provides a systematic analysis of the empirical literature on the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth by conducting a meta-analysis, based on 441 t-statistics reported in 60 empirical studies. We focus on explaining the heterogeneity of results in our sample

  7. Compendium of Operations Research and Economic Analysis Studies

    1989-09-01

    applications. 86-23. Economic Analysis Railway Operacions at the Defense Construction Supply Center (DCSC) (June 1986) The objective of this analysis was...from four DSCs and their totals. First, with the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), correlation matrices were developed to determine

  8. Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday

    Carvalho, Leandro S.; Meier, Stephan; Wang, Stephanie W.

    2016-01-01

    We study the effect of financial resources on decision-making. Low-income U.S. households are randomly assigned to receive an online survey before or after payday. The survey collects measures of cognitive function and administers risk and intertemporal choice tasks. The study design generates variation in cash, checking and savings balances, and expenditures. Before-payday participants behave as if they are more present-biased when making intertemporal choices about monetary rewards but not when making intertemporal choices about non-monetary real-effort tasks. Nor do we find before-after differences in risk-taking, the quality of decision-making, the performance in cognitive function tasks, or in heuristic judgments. PMID:28003681

  9. Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday.

    Carvalho, Leandro S; Meier, Stephan; Wang, Stephanie W

    2016-02-01

    We study the effect of financial resources on decision-making. Low-income U.S. households are randomly assigned to receive an online survey before or after payday. The survey collects measures of cognitive function and administers risk and intertemporal choice tasks. The study design generates variation in cash, checking and savings balances, and expenditures. Before-payday participants behave as if they are more present-biased when making intertemporal choices about monetary rewards but not when making intertemporal choices about non-monetary real-effort tasks. Nor do we find before-after differences in risk-taking, the quality of decision-making, the performance in cognitive function tasks, or in heuristic judgments.

  10. The role of economic evaluation in vaccine decision making : Focus on meningococcal group C conjugate vaccine

    Welte, R.; Trotter, C.L.; Edmunds, W.J.; Postma, Maarten; Beutels, P.H.

    2005-01-01

    In recent years, several countries have experienced increases in the incidence of serogroup C meningococcal disease. It can be controlled with older polysaccharide vaccines and particularly the recently developed conjugate vaccines. For 21 developed countries, we investigated the role that economic

  11. Economics.

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  12. Multi-objective Programming and Social Welfare Analysis of Rural-urban Land Conversion Decision-making

    Song Min; Zhang Anlu

    2008-01-01

    Rural-urban land conversion is an inevitable phenomenon in urbanization and industrialization. And the decision-making issue about this conversion is multi-objective because the social decision maker (the whole of central government and local authority) has to integrate the requirements of different interest groups (rural collective economic organizations, peasants, urban land users and the ones affected indirectly) and harmonize the sub-objects (economic, social and ecological outcomes) of this land allocation process. This paper established a multi-objective programming model for rural-urban land conversion decision-making and made some social welfare analysis correspondingly. Result shows that the general object of rural-urban land conversion decision-making is to reach the optimal level of social welfare in a certain state of resources allocation, while the preference of social decision makers and the value judgment of interest groups are two crucial factors which determine the realization of the rural-urban land conversion decision-making objects.

  13. Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics

    Sener, Adil Caner

    This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy investments overall. The study introduces a stochastic geothermal cost model and a valuation approach for different geothermal power plant development scenarios. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to obtain probability distributions of geothermal energy development costs and project net present values. In the study a stochastic cost model with incorporated dependence structure is defined and compared with the model where random variables are modeled as independent inputs. One of the goals of the study is to attempt to shed light on the long-standing modeling problem of dependence modeling between random input variables. The dependence between random input variables will be modeled by employing the method of copulas. The study focuses on four main types of geothermal power generation technologies and introduces a stochastic levelized cost model for each technology. Moreover, we also compare the levelized costs of natural gas combined cycle and coal-fired power plants with geothermal power plants. The input data used in the model relies on the cost data recently reported by government agencies and non-profit organizations, such as the Department of Energy, National Laboratories, California Energy Commission and Geothermal Energy Association. The second part of the study introduces the stochastic discounted cash flow valuation model for the geothermal technologies analyzed in the first phase. In this phase of the study, the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) software was used to forecast the revenue streams of geothermal assets under different price and regulation scenarios. These results are then combined to create a stochastic revenue forecast of the power plants. The uncertainties in gas prices and environmental regulations will be modeled and their potential impacts will be

  14. The manual of strategic economic decision making using Bayesian belief networks to solve complex problems

    Grover, Jeff

    2016-01-01

    This book is an extension of the author’s first book and serves as a guide and manual on how to specify and compute 2-, 3-, & 4-Event Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). It walks the learner through the steps of fitting and solving fifty BBN numerically, using mathematical proof. The author wrote this book primarily for naïve learners and professionals, with a proof-based academic rigor. The author's first book on this topic, a primer introducing learners to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time, was meant for non-statisticians unfamiliar with the theorem - as is this book. This new book expands upon that approach and is meant to be a prescriptive guide for building BBN and executive decision-making for students and professionals; intended so that decision-makers can invest their time and start using this inductive reasoning principle in their decision-making processes. It highlights the utility of an algorithm that served as ...

  15. Insurer’s activity as object of economic analysis

    O.O. Poplavskiy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the substantiation of theoretical fundamentals of insurer’s analysis and peculiarities of its implementation. The attention has been focused on the important role of economic analysis in economic science which is confirmed by its active use in research and practical orientation. The author summarizes the classification and principles of insurer’s activity analysis, supplements it with specific principles for insurer’s environment, publicity and risk-orientation which enable increasingly to take into account the peculiarities of insurance relations. The paper pays attention to the specification of elements of analysis and its key directions including the analysis of insurer’s financing, the analysis of insurance operations and the analysis of investment activity which will allow the effective functioning of risk management system.

  16. [Choice and disclosure of preferences, towards sharing the therapeutic decision in cancerology: from economic theory to medical practice].

    Protière, C; Moatti, J P; Maraninchi, D; Viens, P

    1998-02-01

    Today, as it is often difficult to demonstrate the superiority of a new molecule or a therapeutic strategy in term of plain efficacy on disease, the incitement is strong to provide some complementary argument of assessment, we are assisting to the emergence of a new concept: shared therapeutic decision making. Is the application of this concept--with make the paternalistic model questionnable--adapted to all cases? What are the different levels of participation that could be envisaged? Are there favourable methods for this participations? This shared decision making--direct (patients' choice between treatment options) or indirect (integration of elicited preferences in the decision process)--if it has to be efficient, must surround with care: to define its application limitation, to protect itself of manipulation. It shall require to consider information transmission difficulties, to establish some elicitation preference method. Some technical, such as time trade off, standard gamble or willingness to pay, supported by economic theory of expected utility, permit to help eliciting patients' preferences and to structure the therapeutic choice. Some empirical study of preference elicitation shall permit to get clear the complexity of trade off between the different choice element that could enter in the acceptability of the treatment for patients.

  17. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF COWPEA PRODUCTION IN NIGERIA

    Abba M. Wakili

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study employs a stochastic frontier production function analysis to examine the productivity and technical efficiency of cowpea production in Adamawa State, Nigeria and also to identify the factors affecting the technical inefficiency using farm level survey data collected from 150 cowpea farmers selected using multi stage sampling technique. Findings from the analysis show that cowpea farmers operated on a very small scale and are profitable. The productivity analysis shows that agro chemicals, fertilizer, farm size and labor were all positively and significantly related to the technical efficiency. The return to scale (RTS of 0.9904 shows that cowpea production was in the rational stage of the production surface. The technical efficiency varies from 0.1094 to 0.9568 with a mean technical efficiency of 0.6649, indicating that farmers were operating below the efficiency frontier. Thus, in the short run, there is a scope to increase output by 34%. The inefficiency model revealed that education of the farmers; extension visits and access to credit are the main factors that affect technical efficiency of the farmers.

  18. Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

    Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

    2012-05-01

    The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on

  19. Economic analysis of nuclear power generation

    Song, Ki Dong; Choi, Young Myung; Kim, Hwa Sup; Lee, Man Ki; Moon, Kee Hwan; Kim, Seung Su; Chae, Kyu Nam

    1996-12-01

    The major contents in this study are as follows : (1) Efforts are made to examine the role of nuclear energy considering environmental regulation. An econometric model for energy demand and supply including carbon tax imposition is established. (2) Analysis for the learning effect of nuclear power plant operation is performed. The study is focused to measure the effect of technology homogeneity on the operation performance. (3) A preliminary capital cost of the KALIMER is estimated by using cost computer program, which is developed in this study. (author). 36 refs.,46 tabs., 15 figs.

  20. Economic Analysis of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives Union

    I. H. Inan

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available In this research, the management activities of Edirne Village Development Cooperatives’ Union were evaluated and revenues and costs required for economic analysis were calculated and profit and loss income statement was estimated for the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. Data for Gross Margin Analysis were supplied from income and loss statement and thus Table comprising gross margins was formed covering all the activities of The Union.Gross Margin Analysis was made in order to determine economic performance of The Union by means of the data obtained from economic results of the operational activities in the years 2002, 2003 and 2004. The Union should develop its present activities so as to survive in the future. Therefore, suggestions were made for the expansion of the profitable activities and to improve nonprofitable activities in order to make them profitable.

  1. Choosing a Commercial Broiler Strain Based on Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    Hosseini SA

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available With the complexity and amount of information in a wide variety of comparative performance reports in poultry production, making a decision is difficult. This problem is overcomed only when all data can be put into a common unit. For this purpose, five different decision making analysis approaches including  Maximin, Equally likely, Weighted average, Ordered weighted averages and Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution were used to choose the best broiler strain among three ones based on their comparative performance and carcass characteristics. Commercial broiler strains of 6000 designated as R, A, and C (each strain 2000 were randomly allocated into three treatments of five replicates. In this study, all methods showed similar results except Maximin approach. Comparing different methods indicated that strain C with the highest world share market has the best performance followed by strains R and A.

  2. The Role of Interpersonal Traits in Social Decision Making: Exploring Sources of Behavioral Heterogeneity in Economic Games.

    Zhao, Kun; Smillie, Luke D

    2015-08-01

    Economic games are well-established experimental paradigms for modeling social decision making. A large body of literature has pointed to the heterogeneity of behavior within many of these games, which might be partly explained by broad interpersonal trait dispositions. Using the Big Five and HEXACO (Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, eXtraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Openness to Experience) personality frameworks, we review the role of personality in two main classes of economic games: social dilemmas and bargaining games. This reveals an emerging role for Big Five agreeableness in promoting cooperative, egalitarian, and altruistic behaviors across several games, consistent with its core characteristic of maintaining harmonious interpersonal relations. The role for extraversion is less clear, which may reflect the divergent effects of its underlying agentic and affiliative motivational components. In addition, HEXACO honesty-humility and agreeableness may capture distinct aspects of prosocial behavior outside the bounds of the Five-Factor Model. Important considerations and directions for future studies are discussed within the emerging personality-economics interface.

  3. An Information Theory Analysis of Spatial Decisions in Cognitive Development

    Nicole M Scott

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages five to ten years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of cognitive entropy were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1 the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2 the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured chunking of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework.

  4. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development.

    Scott, Nicole M; Sera, Maria D; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of "cognitive entropy" were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured "chunking" of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework.

  5. Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis on Regional Economic Disparity of Northeast Economic Region in China

    Li Fei; Zhou Chenghu

    2009-01-01

    Popular regional inequality indexes such as variation coefficient and Gini coefficient can only reveal overall inequal-it),, and have limited ability in revealing spatial dependence or spatial agglomeration.Recently some methods of exploratory spatial data analysis such as spatial autocorrelation have provid-ed effective tools to analyze spatial agglomeration and cluster, which can reveal the pattern of regional inequality.This article attempts to use spatial autocorrelation at county level to get refined spatial pattern of regional disparity in Chinese northeast economic region over 2000-2006 (2001 absent).The result in-dicates that the basic trend of regional economy is an increasing concentration of growth among counties in northeast economic region, and there are two geographical clusters of poorer coun-ties including the counties in western Liaoning Province and adjacent counties in Inner Mongolia, poorer counties of Heihe, Qiqihar and Suihua in Heilongjiang Province.This article also reveals that we can use the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as the supplementary analysis methods in regional eco-nomic analysis.

  6. Innovative approaches to investment decisions substantiation in the sphere of agricultural land use on the base оf ecological and economic assessment of investment quality

    I.S. Marekha

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The aim of the article is to elaborate innovative theoretical and methodological issues and practical recommendations concerning formation of ecological and economic assessment of investment quality, substantiation of investment decisions in the sphere of agricultural land use. The results of the analysis. The analysis of investment quality is undertaken in frames of the analysis of a category «investment». The author finds out that the category of «investment quality» can be investigated from economic and financial sides. From economic point of view, investments are regarded as expenditures on economic reproduction. From financial side, investments are considered as actives that are invested to the business activity in order to receive a profit. The author emphases that such twofold innovative approach can be taken as a principle for determining the category «investment quality». By the meaning of investment quality in agricultural land use one should understand a holistic characteristic of resource attributes that enable to satisfy investment demands in agriculture on the whole and to meet the interests of individual investors in particular. The author distinguishes investment strategies by the features of agricultural ecological and economic system and outlines the following ones: government strategy, banking strategy, self-investment strategy and foreign strategy. A set of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality is formed in the article. In authors’ opinion, the system of ecological and economic indicators of investment quality must include: optimal investment structure adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; the risk of investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor; index of profitability of the investment portfolio adjusted to the influence of ecological factor. For identification of the investment quality the researcher proposes to use additional indicator

  7. Economism

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  8. Regression analysis as an objective tool of economic management of rolling mill

    Š. Vilamová

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The ability to optimize costs plays a key role in maintaining competitiveness of the company, because without detailed knowledge of costs, companies are not able to make the right decisions that will ensure their long-term growth. The aim of this article is to outline the problematic areas related to company costs and to contribute to a debate on the method used to determine the amount of fixed and variable costs, their monitoring and follow-up control. This article presents a potential use of regression analysis as an objective tool of economic management in metallurgical companies, as these companies have several specific features

  9. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making

    Susanne ePrinz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual’s financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002 lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version. Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor ‘source of funding’: students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships had much higher rates of risk aversion (RRA than subjects with support from family (RRAdiff=0.22; p=0.018. Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the IQ significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors ‘agreeableness’ and ‘openness’ showed moderate to modest – but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  10. Impact of personal economic environment and personality factors on individual financial decision making.

    Prinz, Susanne; Gründer, Gerhard; Hilgers, Ralf D; Holtemöller, Oliver; Vernaleken, Ingo

    2014-01-01

    This study on healthy young male students aimed to enlighten the associations between an individual's financial decision making and surrogate makers for environmental factors covering long-term financial socialization, the current financial security/responsibility, and the personal affinity to financial affairs as represented by parental income, funding situation, and field of study. A group of 150 male young healthy students underwent two versions of the Holt and Laury (2002) lottery paradigm (matrix and random sequential version). Their financial decision was mainly driven by the factor "source of funding": students with strict performance control (grants, scholarships) had much higher rates of relative risk aversion (RRA) than subjects with support from family (ΔRRA = 0.22; p = 0.018). Personality scores only modestly affected the outcome. In an ANOVA, however, also the intelligence quotient significantly and relevantly contributed to the explanation of variance; the effects of parental income and the personality factors "agreeableness" and "openness" showed moderate to modest - but significant - effects. These findings suggest that environmental factors more than personality factors affect risk aversion.

  11. The Analysis of International Migration towards Economic Growth

    Ferdous Alam

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: This study discusses the analysis of international migration towards economic growth in Bangladesh. International migration refers to the cross-border movement of people from a mother country to a location outside that mother country, with the purpose of taking up higher income employment, better living conditions, higher education get access to civic amenities and conducting a daily existence there for an extended period of time. The exports of labor, human capital, play a major role to minimize the poverty level in Bangladesh. In the last four decades, Bangladesh exports the huge number of labors abroad for economic growth through remittances. Remittances affect poverty eradication most directly by increasing the income of households which have a family member working abroad. Because income from remittances is usually larger than that which could have been earned by migrants they stayed at home. Approach: The aim of this study is to highlight the policy implications for the maximization of international migration and the analysis of economic growth in Bangladesh. The data for analysis is perceived from the secondary sources. The significant manipulations for acquired data are migration of employment and remittances for economic growth in Bangladesh. Results: Migration contributed for the development of macro and micro level in Bangladesh. Conclusion: There would be potential benefits to world's poor if more international attention were focused on integrating migration policy to within the larger global dialogue economic development and poverty reduction. Strong institutions and good policies will enhance the benefits of human capital migration for Bangladesh.

  12. Fuzzy logic approach to SWOT analysis for economics tasks and example of its computer realization

    Vladimir CHERNOV

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the widely used classic method of analysis, forecasting and decision-making in the various economic problems, called SWOT analysis. As known, it is a qualitative comparison of multicriteria degree of Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat for different kinds of risks, forecasting the development in the markets, status and prospects of development of enterprises, regions and economic sectors, territorials etc. It can also be successfully applied to the evaluation and analysis of different project management tasks - investment, innovation, marketing, development, design and bring products to market and so on. However, in practical competitive market and economic conditions, there are various uncertainties, ambiguities, vagueness. Its making usage of SWOT analysis in the classical sense not enough reasonable and ineffective. In this case, the authors propose to use fuzzy logic approach and the theory of fuzzy sets for a more adequate representation and posttreatment assessments in the SWOT analysis. In particular, has been short showed the mathematical formulation of respective task and the main approaches to its solution. Also are given examples of suitable computer calculations in specialized software Fuzicalc for processing and operations with fuzzy input data. Finally, are presented considerations for interpretation of the results.

  13. Choices, choices: the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to a food safety decision-making problem.

    Fazil, A; Rajic, A; Sanchez, J; McEwen, S

    2008-11-01

    In the food safety arena, the decision-making process can be especially difficult. Decision makers are often faced with social and fiscal pressures when attempting to identify an appropriate balance among several choices. Concurrently, policy and decision makers in microbial food safety are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that their policies and decisions are made using transparent and accountable processes. In this article, we present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to address the problem of trying to select a food safety intervention while balancing various criteria. Criteria that are important when selecting an intervention were determined, as a result of an expert consultation, to include effectiveness, cost, weight of evidence, and practicality associated with the interventions. The multi-criteria decision analysis approach we present is able to consider these criteria and arrive at a ranking of interventions. It can also provide a clear justification for the ranking as well as demonstrate to stakeholders, through a scenario analysis approach, how to potentially converge toward common ground. While this article focuses on the problem of selecting food safety interventions, the range of applications in the food safety arena is truly diverse and can be a significant tool in assisting decisions that need to be coherent, transparent, and justifiable. Most importantly, it is a significant contributor when there is a need to strike a fine balance between various potentially competing alternatives and/or stakeholder groups.

  14. Philippine Technocracy and the Politics of Economic Decision Making During the Martial Law Period (1972-1986

    Teresa E. Encarnacion Tadem

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to elucidate the Philippine technocracy’s rise into the power elite as well as its fall from position during the martial law period (1972- 1986. It aims to bring in the insights of the technocrats concerning their role in President Ferdinand E. Marcos’s authoritarian regime and their views of the nature of the politics, which facilitated as well as impeded the economic decision-making process. It will validate this with what has already been written. The paper argues that the technocracy’s technical expertise and shared development vision with the leadership and the country’s major donors, the International Monetary Fund (IMF and the World Bank, provided their power base.This was, however, continually challenged by the other economic power blocs which consisted mainly of factions within the technocracy, the Marcos cronies, and that of the First Lady Mrs. Imelda Marcos. For as long as the technocracy could access the needed IMF/World Bank loans for the country, the leadership gave it substantive bargaining leverage. This, however, would deteriorate with the country’s economic and political instability as brought about by failed technocratic policies and worldwide economic recession in 1981 and the burgeoning antidictatorship movement spawned further by the 1983 assassination of ex-Senator Benigno Aquino Jr. The technocracy’s loss of power was further aggravated by Marcos’s failing health giving more clout to Mrs. Marcos’s power bloc. What contributed to the technocracy’s ultimate demise was their alienation from the general public as brought about by their vast differing perceptions of the causes of corruption, underdevelopment, and human rights abuses of the regime.

  15. A new decision model for economic evaluation of novel therapies for HCV

    Matteo Ruggeri

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2014, the European Medicines Agency (EMA has given the license to two new direct-acting antiviral: sofosbuvir and simeprevir. The evidence provided by the studies, reported a high rate of SVR even in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. This and other innovative elements are potentially adept at changing the entire natural course of HCV. However, the dramatic prevalence rates of HCV observed in Italy, and the high prices that are expected to be required by the pharmaceutical industry, raises some critical issues about how to regulate access to such drugs. The objective of this article is to present a new decision model for the evaluation of novel therapies for HCV. This model is intended to provide a tool for the decision-maker that seeks to address the main issues related to the introduction of HCV new treatments. The model that we have structured follows the classic Bayesian approach, using data from reference literature for staging the action of treatments depending on the level of fibrosis (F0, F1, F2, F3, F4. The model is designed to consider patients with all genotypes and allows to make comparisons between innovative and traditional therapies (dual, triple, IFN free, PI combinations, etc., for both experienced and naïve patients. In addition, the model is used to simulate mixed cohorts of patients, representing a population with HCV with different levels of fibrosis and different genotypes. To show the potential of the model, we created some simple scenarios assuming different levels of SVR and pricing. The results of our model show that, even assuming an SVR rate of 100%, the administration of new treatments for HCV subjects F1 / 2 has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio not sustainable. In contrast, for the subjects F3 and F4, low incremental SVR rates and an incremental cost of the innovative therapy of € 40,000 would be cost effective. The added value of this model is its versatility and applicability to diverse assessment

  16. DASEES: A Tripartite Decision Analysis Framework to Achieve Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society Growth and Management Goals

    Many of Societies management and growth decisions are often made without a balanced consideration of pertinent factors from environmental, economic and societal perspectives. All three of these areas are key players in many of the decisions facing societies as they strive to ope...

  17. Why economic analysis of health system improvement interventions matters

    Edward Ivor Broughton

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available There is little evidence to direct health systems toward providing efficient interventions to address medical errors, defined as an unintended act of omission or commission or one not executed as intended that may or may not cause harm to the patient but does not achieve its intended outcome. We believe that lack of guidance on what is the most efficient way to reduce adverse events and improve the quality of health care limits the scale-up of health system improvement interventions. Challenges to economic evaluation of these interventions include defining and implementing improvement interventions in different settings with high fidelity, capturing all of the positive and negative effects of the intervention, using process measures of effectiveness rather than health outcomes, and determining the full cost of the intervention and all economic consequences its effects. However, health system improvement interventions should be treated similarly to individual medical interventions and undergo rigorous economic evaluation to provide actionable evidence to guide policy-makers in decisions of resources allocation for improvement activities among other competing demands for health care resources.

  18. Why Economic Analysis of Health System Improvement Interventions Matters

    Broughton, Edward Ivor; Marquez, Lani

    2016-01-01

    There is little evidence to direct health systems toward providing efficient interventions to address medical errors, defined as an unintended act of omission or commission or one not executed as intended that may or may not cause harm to the patient but does not achieve its intended outcome. We believe that lack of guidance on what is the most efficient way to reduce medical errors and improve the quality of health-care limits the scale-up of health system improvement interventions. Challenges to economic evaluation of these interventions include defining and implementing improvement interventions in different settings with high fidelity, capturing all of the positive and negative effects of the intervention, using process measures of effectiveness rather than health outcomes, and determining the full cost of the intervention and all economic consequences of its effects. However, health system improvement interventions should be treated similarly to individual medical interventions and undergo rigorous economic evaluation to provide actionable evidence to guide policy-makers in decisions of resource allocation for improvement activities among other competing demands for health-care resources.

  19. The Role of Temperature in Economic Exchange - An Empirical Analysis

    Dimitrijević Bojan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available As a synthesis of economics and physics and an attempt to apply the methods and models of statistical physics to economics, econophysics is presently a new, growing and very dynamic branch of modern science. Therefore, the subject of this paper is to analyse the relationship and interdependence between thermodynamics and economics, and it aims to show similarities, analogies and correspondence between the main categories, methods and models of thermodynamics on one hand, and economics on the other. The paper analyses the relation between economics and thermodynamics, as well as the probability distribution in the kinetic theory of gases corresponding to money, income and wealth distribution, connects entropy with utility and the principle of operation of the thermal engine with economic exchange. The final part of the paper empirically analyzes temperature differences in the exchange between Serbia and the selected EU countries. There are differences in temperature between Serbia and the group of selected countries. Results of the empirical analysis shows that the exchange between countries is based on principles of thermodynamics and that developed countries generate more profits and benefits from exchange.

  20. A cognitive and economic decision theory for examining cyber defense strategies.

    Bier, Asmeret Brooke

    2014-01-01

    Cyber attacks pose a major threat to modern organizations. Little is known about the social aspects of decision making among organizations that face cyber threats, nor do we have empirically-grounded models of the dynamics of cooperative behavior among vulnerable organizations. The effectiveness of cyber defense can likely be enhanced if information and resources are shared among organizations that face similar threats. Three models were created to begin to understand the cognitive and social aspects of cyber cooperation. The first simulated a cooperative cyber security program between two organizations. The second focused on a cyber security training program in which participants interact (and potentially cooperate) to solve problems. The third built upon the first two models and simulates cooperation between organizations in an information-sharing program.

  1. Game Theory Model and Equilibrium Analysis of Peasant's Production Decision

    Qi Xue-lian; Zhang Ya-zhuo; Meng Jun

    2012-01-01

    Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government's positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants' income

  2. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF TUNISIAN COMPANIES: DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

    Ferdaws Ezzi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article at hand is an attempt to identify the various indicators that are more likely to explain the financial performance of Tunisian companies. In this respective, the emphasis is put on diversification, innovation, intrapersonal and interpersonal skills. Indeed, they are the appropriate strategies that can designate emotional intelligence, the level of indebtedness, the firm age and size as the proper variables that support the target variable. The "decision tree", as a new data analysis method, is utilized to analyze our work. The results involve the construction of a crucial model which is used to achieve a sound financial performance.

  3. Justifications and Excuses in the Economic Analysis of Tort Law

    L.T. Visscher (Louis)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractAbstract: In the economic analysis of tort law, scant attention is paid to justifications and excuses. An injurer invoking a justification argues that he did not act wrongfully. Excuses imply that the injurer acted wrongfully, but that his act cannot be imputed to him. If torts are descr

  4. Economic Analysis. Volume V. Course Segments 65-79.

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    The fifth volume of the multimedia, individualized course in economic analysis produced for the United States Naval Academy covers segments 65-79 of the course. Included in the volume are discussions of monopoly markets, monopolistic competition, oligopoly markets, and the theory of factor demand and supply. Other segments of the course, the…

  5. Economic analysis of wildlife conservation in crop farming

    Wenum, van J.H.

    2002-01-01

    The general objective of this thesis was to present an economic analysis of wildlife conservation in Dutch crop farming. This general objective was broken down into 5 specific research objectives around which the research was organised: (1) selection and definition of appropriate indicators for wild

  6. Multi-criteria decision analysis of concentrated solar power with thermal energy storage and dry cooling.

    Klein, Sharon J W

    2013-12-17

    Decisions about energy backup and cooling options for parabolic trough (PT) concentrated solar power have technical, economic, and environmental implications. Although PT development has increased rapidly in recent years, energy policies do not address backup or cooling option requirements, and very few studies directly compare the diverse implications of these options. This is the first study to compare the annual capacity factor, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), water consumption, land use, and life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of PT with different backup options (minimal backup (MB), thermal energy storage (TES), and fossil fuel backup (FF)) and different cooling options (wet (WC) and dry (DC). Multicriteria decision analysis was used with five preference scenarios to identify the highest-scoring energy backup-cooling combination for each preference scenario. MB-WC had the highest score in the Economic and Climate Change-Economy scenarios, while FF-DC and FF-WC had the highest scores in the Equal and Availability scenarios, respectively. TES-DC had the highest score for the Environmental scenario. DC was ranked 1-3 in all preference scenarios. Direct comparisons between GHG emissions and LCOE and between GHG emissions and land use suggest a preference for TES if backup is require for PT plants to compete with baseload generators.

  7. A Multi—Criteria Decision Making Procedured for the Analysis of an Energy System

    Ming-ShanZhu; Bu-XuanWang; 等

    1992-01-01

    In the course of improving and/or designing an energy system,either purely economic criteria,although the overriding criteria,or purely energy-based criteria,although the emphasized criteria,can not separately handle real-world situations in a satisfactory manner,The econmic effectiveness and the energy efficiency must be considered simultaneously to demonstrate the confilicting and non-commensurable characteristics of these multiple criteria.An iterative and interactive approach to formulating and solving non-linear multi-criteria decision making problems for the analysis of an energy system is proposed.It allows the decision maker(DM) to learn from the available information and dymamically change his mind.Criterion functioins can be treated as objective functions,as constraints of as something in between by the DM.After a series of iterations and interactive procedures,a preferred solution can be made among the non-inferior sets considering thermodymamic criteria and economic creteria simultaneously,a simple example for design of a hest exchanger is used to illustrate the procedure.

  8. Travel modal choice analysis for traffic corridors based on decision-theoretic approaches

    郭伟; 张毅; 尤佳轩; 胡坚明; 裴欣

    2016-01-01

    The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit (subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory (RUT) and decision field theory (DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.

  9. THE MATHEMATICS STATISTICAL ANALYSIS PRODUCTIVE AND ECONOMIC PARAMETERS METALLURGICAL COMPLEX OF URAL

    H.N. Gizatullin

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available For economic rating of efficiency of a metallurgical complex of Ural the algorithm in which basis performance about structure and echelon the device of evaluation object lays is offered. With the help of multivariate methods of the analysis are selected the big system of industrial-financial parameters and its subsystems which final elements determine problems of development of a metallurgical complex. Its decision is possible by the received actual and best models. The found out structures, supervising education and the order of an arrangement of elements in subsystems, subsystems in echelons and echelons in the big system, supporting synergetic relations at all levels, provide economic stability of a complex. It has allowed to reveal not only the typical, but also the specific characteristics of a metallurgical business, both in some regions of Ural, and at possible integration of all the Urals region.

  10. The "amazing" fertility decline: Islam, economics, and reproductive decision making among working-class Moroccan women.

    Hughes, Cortney L

    2011-12-01

    Often it is understood that Islam prohibits family planning because the Qur'an does not explicitly address contraception. Public health and development officials have recently congratulated the Muslim world for decreases in fertility given the supposed constraints placed on reproductive healthcare by Islam, while popular culture writers have warned the West of threats by young Muslims if the population goes uncontrolled. This article draws on data collected through interviews with working-class women seeking reproductive healthcare at clinics in Rabat, Morocco, and with medical providers to challenge the link between Islamic ideology and reproductive practices and the correlation among Islam, poverty, and fertility. Morocco, a predominantly Muslim country, has experienced a dramatic decrease in fertility between the 1970s and today. I argue that patients and providers give new meanings to modern reproductive practices and produce new discourses of reproduction and motherhood that converge popular understandings of Islam with economic conditions of the Moroccan working class.

  11. Economic Analysis of Classical Swine Fever Surveillance in the Netherlands.

    Guo, X; Claassen, G D H; Oude Lansink, A G J M; Loeffen, W; Saatkamp, H W

    2016-06-01

    Classical swine fever (CSF) is a highly contagious pig disease that causes economic losses and impaired animal welfare. Improving the surveillance system for CSF can help to ensure early detection of the virus, thereby providing a better initial situation for controlling the disease. Economic analysis is required to compare the benefits of improved surveillance with the costs of implementing a more intensive system. This study presents a comprehensive economic analysis of CSF surveillance in the Netherlands, taking into account the specialized structure of Dutch pig production, differences in virulence of CSF strains and a complete list of possible surveillance activities. The starting point of the analysis is the current Dutch surveillance system (i.e. the default surveillance-setup scenario), including the surveillance activities 'daily clinical observation by the farmer', 'veterinarian inspection after a call', 'routine veterinarian inspection', 'pathology in AHS', 'PCR on tonsil in AHS', 'PCR on grouped animals in CVI' and 'confirmatory PCR by NVWA'. Alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were proposed by adding 'routine serology in slaughterhouses', 'routine serology on sow farms' and 'PCR on rendered animals'. The costs and benefits for applying the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios were evaluated by comparing the annual mitigated economic losses because of intensified CSF surveillance with the annual additional surveillance costs. The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis show that the alternative surveillance-setup scenarios with 'PCR on rendered animals' are effective for the moderately virulent CSF strain, whereas the scenarios with 'routine serology in slaughterhouses' or 'routine serology on sow farms' are effective for the low virulent strain. Moreover, the current CSF surveillance system in the Netherlands is cost-effective for both moderately virulent and low virulent CSF strains. The results of the cost-benefit analysis for the

  12. Image data integration and analysis for natural disaster decision support systems

    Roper, William E.

    2001-06-01

    Natural disasters have a major impact, globally and within the United States causing injury and loss of life, as well as economic losses. To better address disaster response needs, a task force has been established to leverage technological capabilities to improve disaster response management. Web based geospatial analysis is one of these important capabilities. Samples of geospatial technologies applicable to disaster management are presented. These include 3D visualization, hyperspectral imagery, LIDAR, use of spectral libraries, digital multispectral video, radar imaging systems, photogeologic analysis and geographic information systems. An example scenario of a hurricane with landfall at Mobile, Alabama is used to demonstrate the interoperable use of web-based geospatial information to support decision support systems and assist public information communication.

  13. Clinical decision support tools: analysis of online drug information databases

    Seamon Matthew J

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Online drug information databases are used to assist in enhancing clinical decision support. However, the choice of which online database to consult, purchase or subscribe to is likely made based on subjective elements such as history of use, familiarity, or availability during professional training. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical decision support tools for drug information by systematically comparing the most commonly used online drug information databases. Methods Five commercially available and two freely available online drug information databases were evaluated according to scope (presence or absence of answer, completeness (the comprehensiveness of the answers, and ease of use. Additionally, a composite score integrating all three criteria was utilized. Fifteen weighted categories comprised of 158 questions were used to conduct the analysis. Descriptive statistics and Chi-square were used to summarize the evaluation components and make comparisons between databases. Scheffe's multiple comparison procedure was used to determine statistically different scope and completeness scores. The composite score was subjected to sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the choice of percentages for scope and completeness. Results The rankings for the databases from highest to lowest, based on composite scores were Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Lexi-Comp Online, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Epocrates Online Premium, RxList.com, and Epocrates Online Free. Differences in scope produced three statistical groupings with Group 1 (best performers being: Clinical Pharmacology, Micromedex, Facts & Comparisons 4.0, Lexi-Comp Online, Group 2: Epocrates Premium and RxList.com and Group 3: Epocrates Free (p Conclusion Online drug information databases, which belong to clinical decision support, vary in their ability to answer questions across a range of categories.

  14. A pilot socio-economic analysis of QLIF dairy projects

    Nicholas, Dr. Phillipa; Lampkin, Dr Nicolas; Leifert, Prof. Carlo; Butler, Dr. Gillian; Klocke, Peter; Wagenaar, J.P.T.M.

    2008-01-01

    A pilot socio-economic impact assessment was carried out on three dairy projects within QLIF to identify the business, consumer and policy issues likely to influence the adoption of the innovations resulting from QLIF. A socio-economic analysis is pre-sented related to the key outcomes from the three projects which include: manage-ment systems to reduce mastitis and antibiotic use in organic dairy farms and how milk quality can be enhanced through high forage organic feeding systems. Due to...

  15. Rapid brain responses independently predict gain maximization and loss minimization during economic decision making.

    San Martín, René; Appelbaum, Lawrence G; Pearson, John M; Huettel, Scott A; Woldorff, Marty G

    2013-04-17

    Success in many decision-making scenarios depends on the ability to maximize gains and minimize losses. Even if an agent knows which cues lead to gains and which lead to losses, that agent could still make choices yielding suboptimal rewards. Here, by analyzing event-related potentials (ERPs) recorded in humans during a probabilistic gambling task, we show that individuals' behavioral tendencies to maximize gains and to minimize losses are associated with their ERP responses to the receipt of those gains and losses, respectively. We focused our analyses on ERP signals that predict behavioral adjustment: the frontocentral feedback-related negativity (FRN) and two P300 (P3) subcomponents, the frontocentral P3a and the parietal P3b. We found that, across participants, gain maximization was predicted by differences in amplitude of the P3b for suboptimal versus optimal gains (i.e., P3b amplitude difference between the least good and the best gains). Conversely, loss minimization was predicted by differences in the P3b amplitude to suboptimal versus optimal losses (i.e., difference between the worst and the least bad losses). Finally, we observed that the P3a and P3b, but not the FRN, predicted behavioral adjustment on subsequent trials, suggesting a specific adaptive mechanism by which prior experience may alter ensuing behavior. These findings indicate that individual differences in gain maximization and loss minimization are linked to individual differences in rapid neural responses to monetary outcomes.

  16. ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

    V. A. Rybak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

  17. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  18. When the business of sharing treatment decisions is not the same as shared decision making: A discourse analysis of decision sharing in general practice.

    Robertson, Maggie; Moir, Jim; Skelton, John; Dowell, Jon; Cowan, Sue

    2011-01-01

    Although shared decision making (SDM) in general practice continues to be promoted as a highly desirable means of conducting consultations it is rarely observed in practice. The aim of this study is to identify the discursive features and conversational strategies particular to the negotiation and sharing of treatment decisions in order to understand why SDM is not yet embedded into routine practice. Consultations from Scottish general practices were examined using discourse analysis. Two themes were identified as key components for when the doctor and the patient were intent on sharing decisions: the generation of patient involvement using first-person pronouns, and successful and unsuccessful patient requesting practices. This article identifies a number of conversational activities found to be successful in supporting doctors' agendas and reducing their responsibility for decisions made. Doctor's use of 'partnership talk' was found to minimize resistance and worked to invite consensus rather than involvement. The information from this study provides new insight into the consultation process by identifying how treatment decisions are arrived at through highlighting the complexities involved. Notably, shared decision making does not happen with the ease implied by current models and appears to work to maintain a biomedical 'GP as expert' approach rather than one in which the patient is truly involved in partnership. We suggest that further research on the impact of conversational activities is likely to benefit our understanding of shared decision making and hence training in and the practice of SDM.

  19. ANALYSIS OF OPTION FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP OF STUDENTS STUDYING ECONOMICS

    Camelia, VECHIU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurship is important, entrepreneur plays a major role at micro and maroeconomic level. Entrepreneur is the manager and employee at the same time, is leader and innovator, his company provides products and services that society needs. Europe needs more entrepreneurs and those who want to follow the path of entrepreneurship needs to face multiple challenges that can be overcome when the future entrepreneur benefit from a complex entrepreneurship education. This paper aims, through applied questionnaire, to identify whether future economists are determined to choose the path of entrepreneurship and start a business on their own. Also, we wanted to identify the obstacles that interviewees consider that you have to struggle to start their business. We applied a questionnaire to students, final year bachelor's degree, studying economics. They were chosen because during the three years study several economic disciplines: microeconomics, macroeconomics, management, accounting, finance, law, economic analysis, the national economy, European policy.

  20. The greatest happiness of the greatest number? Policy actors' perspectives on the limits of economic evaluation as a tool for informing health care coverage decisions in Thailand

    Russell Steve

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper presents qualitative findings from an assessment of the acceptability of using economic evaluation among policy actors in Thailand. Using cost-utility data from two economic analyses a hypothetical case scenario was created in which policy actors had to choose between two competing interventions to include in a public health benefit package. The two competing interventions, laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC for gallbladder disease versus renal dialysis for chronic renal disease, were selected because they highlighted conflicting criteria influencing the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 36 policy actors who play a major role in resource allocation decisions within the Thai healthcare system. These included 14 policy makers at the national level, five hospital directors, ten health professionals and seven academics. Results Twenty six out of 36 (72% respondents were not convinced by the presentation of economic evaluation findings and chose not to support the inclusion of a proven cost-effective intervention (LC in the benefit package due to ethical, institutional and political considerations. There were only six respondents, including three policy makers at national level, one hospital director, one health professional and one academic, (6/36, 17% whose decisions were influenced by economic evaluation evidence. Conclusion This paper illustrates limitations of using economic evaluation information in decision making priorities of health care, perceived by different policy actors. It demonstrates that the concept of maximising health utility fails to recognise other important societal values in making health resource allocation decisions.

  1. Science in Service to Society - A Review of Applied Science & Decision Support Development Serving Multiple Economic Sectors

    Mahoney, W. P., III

    2015-12-01

    For more than 30 years, the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has conducted fundamental and applied research focused on developing decision support tools spanning multiple end-user groups representing a variety of economic sectors. Technology transfer is a primary mission of the laboratory where innovation is a key attribute and multidisciplinary research and development are the norm. Application areas include, aviation, surface transportation, wind and solar energy prediction, climate, weather and health, numerical weather prediction, biological and chemical plume dispersion for homeland security, flood prediction and water resource management, soil condition and crop maturity prediction among other application areas. The majority of the developed capabilities have been operationalized by the public, private, and academic sectors. Several commercial companies have been successfully formed around the technologies (e.g., Weather Information Technologies, Inc., Peak Weather Resources, Inc., and Global Weather Corporation) and many existing companies have improved their products by utilizing the RAL-developed weather system advancements (The Weather Channel, WSI, Schneider Electric, Xcel Energy, United Airlines, Vaisala, Panasonic, Idaho Power, etc.). The economic benefit estimates of implementing these technologies have ranged from billions of dollars in avoided commercial aircraft accidents over the last 30 years to 10s of millions of dollars of annual savings by state departments of transportation via more efficient ice and snow maintenance operations. Research and development at RAL is connected to the Broader Impacts Criterion of NSF and its focus on research that results in significant economic or societal impact. This talk will describe our research-to-operations process and discuss several technology transfer examples that have led to commercial opportunities.

  2. Application of decision analysis in debt-for-environment swaps

    Abu-Taleb, M.F. [Department of Civil Engineering, Applied Science University, PO Box 40, 11831, Amman (Jordan)

    2003-03-01

    Through a mandate by the Government of Jordan, a debt-for-environment swap initiative was designed to mobilize resources for programs that improve the Jordanian environment within a broad spectrum of conservation, water supply, sanitation, resource management, ecological protection, environmental education, and pollution abatement technology. As a debtor country, Jordan faces a severe debt burden (with debt-per-capita levels among the highest in the world), and is facing difficulty obtaining further credit to fill the gaps in hard currency requirements for imports. Debt swap converts outstanding debt obligations into local currency for approved national environmental programs and projects. With creditor countries favoring debt swap over debt forgiveness in general, and debt swap for environmental technology projects in particular, the initiative was launched to ensure both fiscal and environmental quality benefits. With donors requiring that project development and selection procedures be fair, unbiased, and transparent, a mechanism for ultimate selection was developed by the author solely for the initiative based on multiple objective optimization techniques. This paper formulates the necessary decision-analytic principles for the initiative and presents a discrete, defensible, and transparent model for selection of projects. The model ranks the projects in terms of environment and economic objectives and can be used for other generalized applications. (orig.)

  3. [Emergy analysis of ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province].

    Liu, Hao; Wang, Qing; Li, Xiu-Juan; Song, Yang; Li, Guang-Jun

    2008-03-01

    By the methods of emergy analysis, this paper studied the emergy flow in the ecological-economic system in Liaoning Province in 1990-2005, and the relationships between the environmental stress caused by resources' input, output and consumption and the sustainable development of the Province. The results showed that in Liaoning Province, the non-renewable resources occupied over 74% of the total consumed emergy, and the realistic population in 2005 was 3.26 times higher than the supportable population. In 1990-2005, the emergy yield ratio decreased from 65.40 to 10.13, emergy loading ratio increased from 2.72 to 7.18, and emergy sustainable index decreased from 24.03 to 1.41. The rapid economic growth in Liaoning Province was chiefly supported by the consumption of vast non-renewable resources, which caused the pressure of economic development on ecosystem getting more and more intense, the economic development increasingly depending on exogenous resources, and the sustainable development of Liaoning ecological-economic system having a continuing decrease. To realize the sustainable development in Liaoning Province, the principles of reduction, reutilization and recycling should be taken as the guidelines for promoting the reuse of wastes and the closed fine circulation of resources to minimize the discharge of wastes.

  4. Ship breaking or scuttling? A review of environmental, economic and forensic issues for decision support.

    Devault, Damien A; Beilvert, Briac; Winterton, Peter

    2016-07-16

    In a globalized world, the world trade fleet plays a pivotal role in limiting transport costs. But, the management of obsolete ships is an acute problem, with most Ship Recycling Facilities (SRF) situated in developing countries. They are renowned for their controversial work and safety conditions and their environmental impact. Paradoxically, dismantlement is paid for by the shipowners in accordance with international conventions therefore it is more profitable for them to sell off ships destined for scrapping. Scuttling, the alternative to scrapping, is assessed in the present review to compare the cost/benefit ratios of the two approaches. Although scrapping provides employment and raw materials - but with environmental, health and safety costs - scuttling provides fisheries and diving tourism opportunities but needs appropriate management to avoid organic and metal pollution, introduction of invasive species and exacerbation of coastal erosion. It is also limited by appropriate bottom depth, ship type and number. The present review inventories the environmental, health, safety, economic, and forensic aspects of each alternative.

  5. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE TOOLS FOR DATA ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING

    DEJAN ZDRAVESKI

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Every business is dynamic in nature and is affected by various external and internal factors. These factors include external market conditions, competitors, internal restructuring and re-alignment, operational optimization and paradigm shifts in the business itself. New regulations and restrictions, in combination with the above factors, contribute to the constant evolutionary nature of compelling, business-critical information; the kind of information that an organization needs to sustain and thrive. Business intelligence (“BI” is broad term that encapsulates the process of gathering information pertaining to a business and the market it functions in. This information when collated and analyzed in the right manner, can provide vital insights into the business and can be a tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, reduce time lags and bring many positive changes. A business intelligence application helps to achieve precisely that. Successful organizations maximize the use of their data assets through business intelligence technology. The first data warehousing and decision support tools introduced companies to the power and benefits of accessing and analyzing their corporate data. Business users at every level found new, more sophisticated ways to analyze and report on the information mined from their vast data warehouses.Choosing a Business Intelligence offering is an important decision for an enterprise, one that will have a significant impact throughout the enterprise. The choice of a BI offering will affect people up and down the chain of command (senior management, analysts, and line managers and across functional areas (sales, finance, and operations. It will affect business users, application developers, and IT professionals. BI applications include the activities of decision support systems (DSS, query and reporting, online analyticalprocessing (OLAP, statistical analysis, forecasting, and data mining. Another way of phrasing this is

  6. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  7. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  8. Economic methods for valuing the outcomes of genetic testing: beyond cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Grosse, Scott D; Wordsworth, Sarah; Payne, Katherine

    2008-09-01

    Genetic testing in health care can provide information to help with disease prediction, diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment. Assessing the clinical utility of genetic testing requires a process to value and weight different outcomes. This article discusses the relative merits of different economic measures and methods to inform recommendations relative to genetic testing for risk of disease, including cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis. Cost-effectiveness analyses refer to analyses that calculate the incremental cost per unit of health outcomes, such as deaths prevented or life-years saved because of some intervention. Cost-effectiveness analyses that use preference-based measures of health state utility such as quality-adjusted life-years to define outcomes are referred to as cost-utility analyses. Cost-effectiveness analyses presume that health policy decision makers seek to maximize health subject to resource constraints. Cost-benefit analyses can incorporate monetary estimates of willingness-to-pay for genetic testing, including the perceived value of information independent of health outcomes. These estimates can be derived from contingent valuation or discrete choice experiments. Because important outcomes of genetic testing do not fit easily within traditional measures of health, cost-effectiveness analyses do not necessarily capture the full range of outcomes of genetic testing that are important to decision makers and consumers. We recommend that health policy decision makers consider the value to consumers of information and other nonhealth attributes of genetic testing strategies.

  9. ASPECTS OF FINANCIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPLICATIONS IN MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Daniela Cristina Solomon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Considering the impact of risk factors in the economic environment, this study provides to all users of financial information a possible pattern for analyzing the financial equilibrium, designed to clarify the importance of dynamic analysis of indicators characterizing the financial equilibrium of an enterprise, expressed on absolute values, especially for managers in decision-making on future work, aimed at achieving pre-established strategic and tactical objectives. Practice has shown that the management cannot be based on intuition and routine but on a scientific analysis, on a thorough knowledge of the existing situation, as well as on the identification of vulnerabilities and opportunities for development. In order to promote a rational policy concerning business growth and achieving economic and financial satisfactory results, the company’s management grants a special importance to the financial diagnosis. The support of financial analysis is the balance sheet that allows developing financial diagnosis on the financial equilibrium conditions and creditworthiness, objectives that allow the evaluation of the independence of the firm and its market value.

  10. INFORMATION ECONOMICS, INSTRUMENT OF ANALYSIS IN NEW MICROECONOMICS

    Maria Zenovia GRIGORE

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In the New Microeconomics the walrasian postulate of perfect information is replaced by two theorems concerning production of information: 1. the acquisition and dissemination of information raise production costs; 2.  the specialisation in information activity is efficient; there are specialists in the production or use of information.  Information economics or the economics of information studies decisions in transaction where one party has more or better information than the other. Incomplete and asymmetric information could generate two types of risks: adverse selection, which can be reduced with signaling games and screening games, and moral hazard, studied in the frame of agency theory, by the principal agent model. The principal agent model treats the difficulties that arise when a principal hires an agent to pursue the interests of the former. There are some mechanisms that align the interests of the agent in solidarity with those of the principal, such as commissions, promotions, profit sharing, efficiency wages, deferred compensation, fear of firing and so on.

  11. Price System for Water Supply and its Economic Impact Analysis

    Jing Zhao

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In light of the actual economic circumstances and water price level, the CGE model to simulate the price policy for multiple water sources is modified and expanded. A water price reform plan is proposed to meet water-saving requirements and water resources allocation. The affected scale and scope for implementing the water price policy is evaluated on a quantitative basis. Research results indicate that a reasonable water price system in Tianjin in 2020 should be set up as follows: the comprehensive tap water price stands at 4$/m3, the tap water price for industrial, administrative and business service sectors is 2.4$/m3, and the tap water price for special industry and domestic use are 8.8$/m3 and 1.4$/m3 respectively. The adjusted water price will bring about tangible results to water resources allocation optimization and water conservation. Although most sectors are negatively affected to varying degrees after raising the water price, particularly the lodging and catering sectors, a 100% water price rising will produce only little impact on price index, and sectoral output and employment will not cause economic fluctuations or social instability. Water price adjustments, as long as it is reasonable, will be more positive than negative on the whole. Research outcomes will provide a scientific decision-making basis for formulating the local water price policy.

  12. Hydrogen and Water: An Engineering, Economic and Environmental Analysis

    Simon, A J; Daily, W; White, R G

    2010-01-06

    The multi-year program plan for the Department of Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Program (USDOE, 2007a) calls for the development of system models to determine economic, environmental and cross-cutting impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy. One component of the hydrogen production and delivery chain is water; water's use and disposal can incur costs and environmental consequences for almost any industrial product. It has become increasingly clear that due to factors such as competing water demands and climate change, the potential for a water-constrained world is real. Thus, any future hydrogen economy will need to be constructed so that any associated water impacts are minimized. This, in turn, requires the analysis and comparison of specific hydrogen production schemes in terms of their water use. Broadly speaking, two types of water are used in hydrogen production: process water and cooling water. In the production plant, process water is used as a direct input for the conversion processes (e.g. steam for Steam Methane Reforming {l_brace}SMR{r_brace}, water for electrolysis). Cooling water, by distinction, is used indirectly to cool related fluids or equipment, and is an important factor in making plant processes efficient and reliable. Hydrogen production further relies on water used indirectly to generate other feedstocks required by a hydrogen plant. This second order indirect water is referred to here as 'embedded' water. For example, electricity production uses significant quantities of water; this 'thermoelectric cooling' contributes significantly to the total water footprint of the hydrogen production chain. A comprehensive systems analysis of the hydrogen economy includes the aggregate of the water intensities from every step in the production chain including direct, indirect, and embedded water. Process and cooling waters have distinct technical quality requirements. Process water, which is typically

  13. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three

  14. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  15. Economic Analysis on Protection of Farmers’ Benefits Based on Market of Agricultural Means of Production and Agricultural Products

    De; CHEN; Dongmei; XIANG; Shengping; SHI

    2013-01-01

    Influenced by many factors,farmers remain very unfavorable position in market transaction and thus fail to ensure their reasonable benefits.In accordance with basic theory of microeconomics,this paper analyzes mutual relation between market of agricultural means of production and agricultural product market,compares economic decisions of agricultural means of production enterprises and agricultural product circulation service providers in monopoly condition and perfect competitive market,expounds influence of monopoly position of agricultural means of production enterprises and agricultural products service providers on economic benefits of farmers,and elaborates weak position and economic damage of farmers in transaction with various economic entities.Through analysis,it further recognizes necessity for protection of farmers’benefits and puts forward corresponding countermeasures:(1)regulating providers of agricultural means of production;(2)strengthening construction of agricultural product market circulation system;(3)improving organization of farmers;(4)setting up and improving production subsidy system of farmers.

  16. Purposeful engineering economics

    Chadderton, Ronald A

    2015-01-01

    This textbook/course supplement stands as a unique and highly original complement to the traditional engineering economics curriculum. Its primarily narrative approach conveys the essence of an “Austrian" economic perspective on cash flow analysis and decision making in engineering, without extensive tables and graphs, and requires very little mathematics. The book’s objective is to add a new perspective to the usual study of cash flow analysis and solely econometric engineering decision making. The author draws on the methodology of the Austrian Economists—a school of economic thought that bases its study of economic phenomena on the interpretation and analysis of the purposeful actions of individuals. The book includes an array of illustrative case studies examined in detail by the author and emphasizes the importance of market processes and price signals to coordinate engineering plans. Purposeful Engineering Economics is an ideal resource for students, teaching faculty, and practicing professional ...

  17. Economic Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Vaccination Strategies in Singapore

    Lee, Vernon J.; Tok, Mei Yin; Chow, Vincent T.; Phua, Kai Hong; Ooi, Eng Eong; Tambyah, Paul A.; Chen, Mark I.

    2009-01-01

    Background All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. Methodology We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. Principal Findings The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4–0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. Conclusions The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines. PMID:19771173

  18. Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

    Vernon J Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. CONCLUSIONS: The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

  19. Economic analysis in medical education: definition of essential terms.

    Walsh, Kieran

    2014-10-01

    Medical education is expensive. There is a growing interest in the subject of cost and value in medical education. However, in the medical education literature, terms are sometimes used loosely - and so there is a need for basic grounding in the meaning of commonly used and important terms in medical education economics. The purpose of this article is to define some terms that are frequently used in economic analysis in medical education. In this article, terms are described, and the descriptions are followed by a worked example of how the terms might be used in practice. The following terms are described: opportunity cost, total cost of ownership, sensitivity analysis, viewpoint, activity-based costing, efficiency, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, price and transaction costs.

  20. Tactical techno-economic analysis of electricity generation from forest, fossil, and wood waste fuels in a heating plant

    Palander Teijo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish energy industry is subject to policy decisions regarding renewable energy production and energy efficiency regulation. Conventional electricity generation has environmental side-effects that may cause global warming. Renewable fuels are superior because they offer near-zero net emissions. In this study, we investigated a heating mill's ability to generate electricity from forest fuels in southern Finland on a 1-year strategic decision-making horizon. The electricity-generation, -purchase, and -sales decisions are made using three different energy efficiency and forest technology rates. Then the decision environment was complicated by the sequence-dependent procurement chains for forest fuels (below-ground on a tactical decision-making horizon. With this aim, fuel data of three forest fuel procurement teams were collected for 3 months. The strategic fuel procurement decisions were adjusted to the changed decision environment based on a tactical techno-economic analysis using forest technology rates. The optimal energy product and fuel mixtures were solved by minimizing procurement costs, maximizing production revenues, and minimizing energy losses.

  1. Texting while driving as impulsive choice: A behavioral economic analysis

    Hayashi, Yusuke; Russo, Christopher T.; Wirth, Oliver

    2015-01-01

    The goal of the present study was to examine the utility of a behavioral economic analysis to investigate the role of delay discounting in texting while driving. A sample of 147 college students completed a survey to assess how frequently they send and read text messages while driving. Based on this information, students were assigned to one of two groups: 19 students who frequently text while driving and 19 matched-control students who infrequently text while driving but were similar in gend...

  2. Generalized concavity in fuzzy optimization and decision analysis

    Ramík, Jaroslav

    2002-01-01

    Convexity of sets in linear spaces, and concavity and convexity of functions, lie at the root of beautiful theoretical results that are at the same time extremely useful in the analysis and solution of optimization problems, including problems of either single objective or multiple objectives. Not all of these results rely necessarily on convexity and concavity; some of the results can guarantee that each local optimum is also a global optimum, giving these methods broader application to a wider class of problems. Hence, the focus of the first part of the book is concerned with several types of generalized convex sets and generalized concave functions. In addition to their applicability to nonconvex optimization, these convex sets and generalized concave functions are used in the book's second part, where decision-making and optimization problems under uncertainty are investigated. Uncertainty in the problem data often cannot be avoided when dealing with practical problems. Errors occur in real-world data for...

  3. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  4. A Speedy Cardiovascular Diseases Classifier Using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    Wah Ching Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Each year, some 30 percent of global deaths are caused by cardiovascular diseases. This figure is worsening due to both the increasing elderly population and severe shortages of medical personnel. The development of a cardiovascular diseases classifier (CDC for auto-diagnosis will help address solve the problem. Former CDCs did not achieve quick evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. In this letter, a new CDC to achieve speedy detection is investigated. This investigation incorporates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP-based multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA to develop feature vectors using a Support Vector Machine. The MCDA facilitates the efficient assignment of appropriate weightings to potential patients, thus scaling down the number of features. Since the new CDC will only adopt the most meaningful features for discrimination between healthy persons versus cardiovascular disease patients, a speedy detection of cardiovascular diseases has been successfully implemented.

  5. Securing public transportation systems an integrated decision analysis framework for the prevention of terrorist attacks as example

    Brauner, Florian

    2017-01-01

    Florian Brauner addresses the risk reduction effects of security measures (SecMe) as well as economic and social effects using terrorist threats in public transportation as use case. SecMe increase the level of security but cause interferences and restrictions for customers (e.g. privacy). This study identifies the interferences and analyzes the acceptance with an empirical survey of customers. A composite indicator for the acceptance of different SecMe is developed and integrated into a risk management framework for multi-criteria decision analysis achieving the right balance of risk reduction, costs, and social acceptance. Contents Assessment of Security Measures for Risk Management Measurement of Objective Effectiveness of Security Measures Against Terrorist Attacks Determination of Subjective Effects of Security Measures (Customer Acceptance Analysis) Cost Analysis of Security Measures Multi-Criteria Decision Support Systems Target Groups Scientists with Interest in Civil Security Research Providers and S...

  6. The Potential for Meta-Analysis to Support Decision Analysis in Ecology

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable…

  7. Impact of methodology on the results of economic evaluations of varicella vaccination programs: is it important for decision-making?

    Patrícia Coelho de Soárez

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to review the literature on economic evaluation of childhood varicella vaccination programs and to discuss how heterogeneity in methodological aspects and estimation of parameters can affect the studies' results. After applying the inclusion criteria, 27 studies published from 1980 to 2008 were analyzed in relation to methodological differences. There was great heterogeneity in the perspective adopted, evaluation of indirect costs, type of model used, modeling of the effect on herpes zoster, and estimation of vaccine price and efficacy parameters. The factor with the greatest impact on results was the inclusion of indirect costs, followed by the perspective adopted and vaccine price. The choice of a particular methodological aspect or parameter affected the studies' results and conclusions. It is essential that authors present these choices transparently so that users of economic evaluations understand the implications of such choices and the direction in which the results of the analysis were conducted.

  8. Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

    Rosati, Nicoletta

    2002-04-01

    Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation.

  9. Managers’ Interview Decisions about Older Job Applicants: Effects of Human Capital-Related Characteristics, General Economic Conditions, and Changes in Job Demands

    Oude Mulders, J.; Henkens, K.; Liu, Y.; Schippers, J.J.; Wang, M.

    2016-01-01

    Older job applicants are vulnerable to stereotype related bias in the recruitment process. In the current study, we examined how managers’ job in terview invitation decisions regarding older job applicants are influenced by a pplicants’ human capital-related characteristics, general economic conditi

  10. Has ECB communication been helpful in predicting interest rate decisions? An evaluation of the early years of the Economic and Monetary Union

    Jansen, D.J.; de Haan, J.

    2009-01-01

    We examine the usefulness of communication by the European Central Bank for predicting its policy decisions during the early years of the European Economic and Monetary Union. Using ordered probit models based on the Taylor rule, we find that statements on the main refinancing rate and future inflat

  11. Systematic review of economic evaluations of vaccination programs in mainland China: Are they sufficient to inform decision making?

    Pan, Xiong-Fei; Griffiths, Ulla K; Pennington, Mark; Yu, Hongjie; Jit, Mark

    2015-11-17

    The purpose of the study was to systematically review economic evaluations of vaccine programs conducted in mainland China. We searched for economic evaluations of vaccination in China published prior to August 3, 2015 in eight English-language and three Chinese-language databases. Each article was appraised against the 19-item Consensus on Health Economic Criteria list (CHEC-list). We found 23 papers evaluating vaccines against hepatitis B (8 articles), Streptococcus pneumoniae (5 articles), human papillomavirus (3 articles), Japanese encephalitis (2 articles), rotavirus (2 articles), hepatitis A (1 article), Enterovirus 71 (1 article) and influenza (1 article). Studies conformed to a mean of 12 (range: 6-18) items in the CHEC-list criteria. Five of six Chinese-language articles conformed to fewer than half of the 19 criteria items. The main criteria that studies failed to conform to included: inappropriate measurement (20 articles) and valuation (18 articles) of treatment and/or vaccination costs, no discussion about distributional implications (18 articles), missing major health outcomes (14 articles), no discussion about generalizability to other contexts (14 articles), and inadequate sensitivity analysis (13 articles). In addition, ten studies did not include major cost components of vaccination programs, and nine did not report outcomes in terms of life years even in cases where QALYs or DALYs were calculated. Only 13 studies adopted a societal perspective for analysis. All studies concluded that the appraised vaccination programs were cost-effective except for one evaluation of universal 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) in children. However, three of the five studies on PCV-7 showed poor overall quality, and the number of studies on vaccines other than hepatitis B vaccine and PCV-7 was limited. In conclusion, major methodological flaws and reporting problems exist in current economic evaluations of vaccination programs in China. Local

  12. Validation of decision-making models and analysis of decision variables in the rat basal ganglia.

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2009-08-05

    Reinforcement learning theory plays a key role in understanding the behavioral and neural mechanisms of choice behavior in animals and humans. Especially, intermediate variables of learning models estimated from behavioral data, such as the expectation of reward for each candidate choice (action value), have been used in searches for the neural correlates of computational elements in learning and decision making. The aims of the present study are as follows: (1) to test which computational model best captures the choice learning process in animals and (2) to elucidate how action values are represented in different parts of the corticobasal ganglia circuit. We compared different behavioral learning algorithms to predict the choice sequences generated by rats during a free-choice task and analyzed associated neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and ventral pallidum (VP). The major findings of this study were as follows: (1) modified versions of an action-value learning model captured a variety of choice strategies of rats, including win-stay-lose-switch and persevering behavior, and predicted rats' choice sequences better than the best multistep Markov model; and (2) information about action values and future actions was coded in both the NAc and VP, but was less dominant than information about trial types, selected actions, and reward outcome. The results of our model-based analysis suggest that the primary role of the NAc and VP is to monitor information important for updating choice behaviors. Information represented in the NAc and VP might contribute to a choice mechanism that is situated elsewhere.

  13. RATING DECISION ANALYSIS BASED ON IOS APP STORE DATA

    Dejan Erić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of the paper is to describe the specific aspects of the e-commerce model business-to-consumer as a constantly developing field of an economic life in the Central European countries according to their customers. The current state of e-business and business-to-consumer e-commerce issue was identified by the research in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia.Methodology/Approach: For the purposes of collecting primary data the crucial factor for the selection of e-shops was identification of the suitable  online portals focused on post-purchase evaluation of e-shops in Visegrad group countries. Automatic data collection method was used for the observed variables (evaluations within selected online portals of the identified e-shops. The total of 5,228,127 evaluations of 9,260 e-shops were analysed. The main focus was given to customer overall satisfaction with an e-shop in relation to communication with a customer or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Findings: The results of the research showed that there exists a direct relation between overall satisfaction with an e-shop and communication with customers or overall satisfaction with an e-shop and delivery quality.Originality/Value of paper: The ambition of this paper through the findings is to help subjects of e-commerce in their marketing decisions in order to even better understand the factors that influence customers’ satisfaction. 

  14. The Role of Employers’ Demographic and Socio-Economical Characteristics in their Decision to Introduce Sports Programs in their Companies

    Ioannis Trigonis

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the role of the employer’s demographic and socio-economic characteristics in his/her decision to introduce and organize sports programmes in their companies. The sample of this research consisted of more than one hundred employers employing more than thirty workers each, in the districts of Rodopi, Kozani, and Thessaloniki. A survey was conducted in which the employers were asked to provide information and statistical data about the people working in their companies, as well as their own opinion concerning the introduction of sports at work. In addition, their demographic and socio-economic characteristics were recorded. The results indicated that the employers with a higher level of education make use of sports programmes in their companies more often, compared to those with a lower level of education. Sex, age and salary of employers did not affect the frequency of sports programmes at work. The employers claim that the introduction of sports activities in their companies helped reduce the appearance of illnesses and employees’ absence from work due to health reasons, and the number of accidents at work. Consequently, it contributed to the increase in production, creativity and team spirit among the employees, while raising their morale, and self-confidence. Moreover, it brought about a rise in profits and improved the image of the company offering such programmes. A research focus on the legal status, organization and establishment of sports activities at work could provide valuable information on whether health and safety measures are applied according to the provisions of the law.

  15. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  16. More Use of Peritoneal Dialysis Gives Significant Savings: A Systematic Review and Health Economic Decision Model

    Pike, Eva; Hamidi, Vida; Ringerike, Tove; Wisloff, Torbjorn; Klemp, Marianne

    2017-01-01

    Background Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are in need of renal replacement therapy as dialysis and/or transplantation. The prevalence of ESRD and, thus, the need for dialysis are constantly growing. The dialysis modalities are either peritoneal performed at home or hemodialysis (HD) performed in-center (hospital or satellite) or home. We examined effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HD performed at different locations (hospital, satellite, and home) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) at home in the Norwegian setting. Methods We conducted a systematic review for patients above 18 years with end-stage renal failure requiring dialysis in several databases and performed several meta-analyses of existing literature. Mortality and major complications that required were our main clinical outcomes. The quality of the evidence for each outcome was evaluated using GRADE. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by developing a probabilistic Markov model. The analysis was carried out from a societal perspective, and effects were expressed in quality-adjusted life-years. Uncertainties in the base-case parameter values were explored with a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Scenario analyses were conducted by increasing the proportion of patients receiving PD with a corresponding reduction in HD patients in-center both for Norway and Europian Union. We assumed an annual growth rate of 4% in the number of dialysis patients, and a relative distribution between PD and HD in-center of 30% and 70%, respectively. Results From a societal perspective and over a 5-year time horizon, PD was the most cost-effective dialysis alternative. We found no significant difference in mortality between peritoneal and HD modalities. Our scenario analyses showed that a shift toward more patients on PD (as a first choice) with a corresponding reduction in HD in-center gave a saving over a 5-year period of 32 and 10,623 million EURO, respectively, for Norway and the European Union. Conclusions PD was

  17. Сryptocurrency as an object of economic analysis in insurance companies

    O.O. Poplavskiy

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to topical issues of economic nature of cryptocurrency and development of the theoretical approaches for its analysis in insurance companies. The attention has been focused to risks and opportunities of cryptocurrency in modern economy, its place in evolution of money. The author studied the international experience of cryptocurrency operation in insurance companies order to identify trends of development of the industry and to determine their potential impact on the domestic insurance sector. The legal status of bitcion, main popular cryptocurrency, in different countries of the world has not been left without attention. The author has defined that bitcion is prohibited in states with low level of insurance density and penetration (like Bangladesh, Russia, Indonesia and is legalized in development countries, such USA, Japan, Germany and others. Major indicators of analysis of cryptocurrency in insurance companies which can be used for management decisions have been suggested.

  18. Economic Analysis of Different Nuclear Fuel Cycle Options

    Won Il Ko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An economic analysis has been performed to compare four nuclear fuel cycle options: a once-through cycle (OT, DUPIC recycling, thermal recycling using MOX fuel in a pressurized water reactor (PWR-MOX, and sodium fast reactor recycling employing pyroprocessing (Pyro-SFR. This comparison was made to suggest an economic competitive fuel cycle for the Republic of Korea. The fuel cycle cost (FCC has been calculated based on the equilibrium material flows integrated with the unit cost of the fuel cycle components. The levelized fuel cycle costs (LFCC have been derived in terms of mills/kWh for a fair comparison among the FCCs, and the results are as follows: OT 7.35 mills/kWh, DUPIC 9.06 mills/kWh, PUREX-MOX 8.94 mills/kWh, and Pyro-SFR 7.70 mills/kWh. Due to unavoidable uncertainties, a cost range has been applied to each unit cost, and an uncertainty study has been performed accordingly. A sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to obtain the break-even uranium price (215$/kgU for the Pyro-SFR against the OT, which demonstrates that the deployment of the Pyro-SFR may be economical in the foreseeable future. The influence of pyrotechniques on the LFCC has also been studied to determine at which level the potential advantages of Pyro-SFR can be realized.

  19. Regime change and public policy: the political and macro-economic decision-making of Spanish energy policy

    Lancaster, T.D.

    1983-01-01

    This dissertation examines the effects of peaceful regime change on public policy-making. Spain's National Energy Plan (PEN) in particular, and energy planning in general, constitute a critical policy issue which permits direct comparison of decision-making across regime change from the Franco dictatorship to the present constitutional monarchy. The research reveals that the nature of the political coalition underlying Spain's regime change accounts of the lack of significant change in policy-making processes in this particular policy issue. This thesis develops a two-pronged argument to explain the absence of significant policy change. The first is based on a general view of the Franco regime's and the democratic system's coalitional support. In each, three major political forces are seen as central: the military, business, and labor. One of these, business, is seen as being pivotal in the regime transition. Business' pivotal position, it is argued, has permitted a defence of a national energy policy beneficial to its economic interests in energy. The argument's second part focuses on the binding constraint on policy outcomes imposed by private interests in state planning and the generally non-binding nature of oppositional party policy proposals and public opinion.

  20. Socio-cultural and economic antecedents of adolescent sexual decision-making and HIV-risk in rural Uganda.

    Katz, Ingrid T; Ybarra, Michele L; Wyatt, Monique A; Kiwanuka, Julius P; Bangsberg, David R; Ware, Norma C

    2013-01-01

    With more than half of new infections occurring among youth, HIV/AIDS remains a major contributor to morbidity and mortality in Uganda. Semi-structured interviews were performed with 48 adolescents and 15 adult key informants in a rural Ugandan community to identify influences on adolescent sexual decision-making. Inductive data analytic methods revealed five thematic influences: (1) social pressure, (2) decline of the Senga (a familial figure who traditionally taught female adolescents about how to run a household), (3) cultural barriers to condom use, (4) knowledge of HIV transmission and modes of prevention, and (5) a moral injunction against sex before marriage. Influences were classified as HIV/AIDS risk and protective factors and organized to form an explanatory framework of adolescent sexual risk-taking. Risk factors pull youth toward risky behavior, while protective factors push them away. Predominance of risk over protective influences explains persistent sexual risk-taking by Ugandan youth. HIV prevention programs designed for Ugandan adolescents should take competing factors and sociocultural and economic influences into account.

  1. Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

  2. Economic Analysis on Key Challenges for Sustainable Aquaculture Development

    Gedefaw Abate, Tenaw

    developmental stage. The key challenge in this regard is that the conventional used live feed items, Artemia and rotifers, are nutritionally deficient. Thus, the first main purpose of the thesis is carrying out an economic analysis of the feasibility of commercial production and the use of an alternative live...... challenges that could obstruct its sustainable development, such as a lack of suitable feed, which includes fishmeal, fish oil and live feed, and negative environmental externalities. If the aquaculture industry is to reach its full potential, it must be both environmentally and economically sustainable....... To this end, key challenges should be thoroughly examined to identify sustainable and efficient solutions. Thus, the thesis focuses on two important bottlenecks in the growth of the aquaculture sector—namely, lack of nutritionally suitable live feed items for marine finfish production and negative...

  3. Economical analysis of combined fuel cell generators and absorption chillers

    M. Morsy El-Gohary

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a co-generation system based on combined heat and power for commercial units. For installation of a co-generation system, certain estimates for this site should be performed through making assessments of electrical loads, domestic water, and thermal demand. This includes domestic hot water, selection of the type of power generator, fuel cell, and the type of air conditioning system, and absorption chillers. As a matter of fact, the co-generation system has demonstrated good results for both major aspects, economic and environmental. From the environmental point of view, this can be considered as an ideal solution for problems concerned with the usage of Chlorofluoro carbons. On the other hand, from the economic point of view, the cost analysis has revealed that the proposed system saves 4% of total cost through using the co-generation system.

  4. Techno-economic analysis of biofuel production considering logistic configurations.

    Li, Qi; Hu, Guiping

    2016-04-01

    In the study, a techno-economic analysis method considering logistic configurations is proposed. The economic feasibility of a low temperature biomass gasification pathway and an integrated pathway with fast pyrolysis and bio-oil gasification are evaluated and compared with the proposed method in Iowa. The results show that both pathways are profitable, biomass gasification pathway could achieve an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 10.00% by building a single biorefinery and integrated bio-oil gasification pathway could achieve an IRR of 3.32% by applying decentralized supply chain structure. A Monte-Carlo simulation considering interactions among parameters is also proposed and conducted, which indicates that both pathways are at high risk currently.

  5. Economic Growth and Budget Constraints: EU Countries Panel Data Analysis

    Zimčík Petr

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to identify the impacts of different taxes and expenditures on economic growth. The research is focused on 20 selected European Union Member States. These countries are equally divided into four groups based on their average tax burden as presented in the World Tax Index. A comparison of fiscal attributes among these groups is important for the analysis. Annual government finance data from the years 1995 to 2012 are used for an empirical study. The indicators observed are real GDP change, the composition and volume of total government expenditures, tax quotas of individual taxes and total budget balance. These indicators are used within an endogenous growth model together with capital stock and an approximation of human capital. A panel regression with fixed effects is used as an analytic tool. The main results are that an increase in social contributions, property, production and personal income tax quotas has an adverse effect on economic growth.

  6. Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

    2004-05-01

    Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.

  7. Hesitant fuzzy methods for multiple criteria decision analysis

    Zhang, Xiaolu

    2017-01-01

    The book offers a comprehensive introduction to methods for solving multiple criteria decision making and group decision making problems with hesitant fuzzy information. It reports on the authors’ latest research, as well as on others’ research, providing readers with a complete set of decision making tools, such as hesitant fuzzy TOPSIS, hesitant fuzzy TODIM, hesitant fuzzy LINMAP, hesitant fuzzy QUALIFEX, and the deviation modeling approach with heterogeneous fuzzy information. The main focus is on decision making problems in which the criteria values and/or the weights of criteria are not expressed in crisp numbers but are more suitable to be denoted as hesitant fuzzy elements. The largest part of the book is devoted to new methods recently developed by the authors to solve decision making problems in situations where the available information is vague or hesitant. These methods are presented in detail, together with their application to different type of decision-making problems. All in all, the book ...

  8. Pharmaco-economics analysis, as a strategy on facilitating choices between health and non-health programs in the establishment of the national health care system

    Adanela Musaraj

    2014-03-01

    This paper aims to contribute to the dissemination of notions and techniques of economic study with a view to integrate these into strategy decisions of payment rationalization and the search for clinical effectiveness. It includes a literature review covering the category of expenses and reimbursement in health issues, the methodologies of pharmaco-economics revision, cost-minimization, cost-benefits, cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis, as well as its main characteristics, advantages, disadvantages and applicability.

  9. Proposed standby gasoline rationing plan. Economic and regulatory analysis draft

    1978-06-01

    This economic and regulatory analysis meets the requirements of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which calls for an evaluation of the potential economic impacts of the gasoline rationing contingency plan. In addition, this analysis is intended to satisfy the requirements of the President's Executive Order No. 12044 of March 23, 1978, regarding government regulations, and provides an inflationary impact statement for the proposed rationing plan. To perform the analysis of rationing program impacts on the total national economy, three separate projections were required. First, a projection is made of the ''normal'' U.S. economy for a future period--the last quarter of 1980 through the third quarter of 1981 in this analysis. Second, a projection is made of the impacts which a petroleum supply interruption would have on the U.S. economy during this future period, assuming that DOE's standby allocation and price control regulations were implemented for crude oil and products. Third, and most significant, an estimate is made of the incremental impacts of the gasoline rationing program on this already-perturbed future U.S. economy.

  10. Economic analysis of the cost of Intensive Care Units

    Mazetas D.

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The cost of Intensive Care Units has the greatest impact on overall medical costs and the overall cost for the health of a country and an increasing number of studies from around the world presenting the quantification of these costs. Aim: Review of the Economic Analysis of the Cost of Intensive Care Units. Method: Search was made in the SCOPUS, MEDLINE and CINAHL databases using the key-words “Intensive Care Units (ICU”, “Cost”, “Cost Analysis”, “Health Care Costs”, “Health Resources”, “ICU resources”. The study was based on articles published in English from 2000 to 2011 investigating the Economic Analysis of the Cost of Intensive Care Units. Results: The cost of ICU is a significant percentage of gross domestic product in developed countries. Most cost analysis studies that relate to plans that include the study of staff costs, duration of stay in the ICU, the clinical situations of hospitalized patients, engineering support, medications and diagnostic tests costing scales and in relation to the diagnostic criteria. Conclusions: most studies conclude that the remuneration of staff, particularly nurses, in the ICU is the largest cost of ICU, while for the duration of stay in the ICU results are conflicting. The analysis on the cost-effectiveness of ICU can help to better apply these findings to the therapeutic context of ICU.

  11. Clinical laboratory as an economic model for business performance analysis

    Buljanović, Vikica; Patajac, Hrvoje; Petrovečki, Mladen

    2011-01-01

    Aim To perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis of a clinical laboratory as an economic model that may be used to improve business performance of laboratories by removing weaknesses, minimizing threats, and using external opportunities and internal strengths. Methods Impact of possible threats to and weaknesses of the Clinical Laboratory at Našice General County Hospital business performance and use of strengths and opportunities to improve operating profit were simulated using models created on the basis of SWOT analysis results. The operating profit as a measure of profitability of the clinical laboratory was defined as total revenue minus total expenses and presented using a profit and loss account. Changes in the input parameters in the profit and loss account for 2008 were determined using opportunities and potential threats, and economic sensitivity analysis was made by using changes in the key parameters. The profit and loss account and economic sensitivity analysis were tools for quantifying the impact of changes in the revenues and expenses on the business operations of clinical laboratory. Results Results of simulation models showed that operational profit of €470 723 in 2008 could be reduced to only €21 542 if all possible threats became a reality and current weaknesses remained the same. Also, operational gain could be increased to €535 804 if laboratory strengths and opportunities were utilized. If both the opportunities and threats became a reality, the operational profit would decrease by €384 465. Conclusion The operational profit of the clinical laboratory could be significantly reduced if all threats became a reality and the current weaknesses remained the same. The operational profit could be increased by utilizing strengths and opportunities as much as possible. This type of modeling may be used to monitor business operations of any clinical laboratory and improve its financial situation by

  12. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    Yoon Kihoon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to

  13. Multi Dimension Features and Economic Decision Making of Modern Economics Theory System%现代经济学理论体系的多维度特征与经济决策

    郭正模

    2015-01-01

    新古典经济学实质上是按照“效率—稀缺”维度的经济理性行为建立的经济学理论体系。而以“效率—风险”“效率—时间”“效率—空间”和“效率—公平”维度所建立的理论体系往往以非主流经济学的形式存在。现代经济学理论的“经济理性”行为的基本假设应当具有多维度特征。大多数个人“偏好“行为可以被解释为按照其他维度决策的经济理性行为。现实中的经济决策往往是一个多维度选择与“排序“优化的过程。%The new classical economics constructs its economical theory system according to the economic rational behavior of the“efficiency-scarcity”dimension. But the economic theory system constructed by the dimension of“efficiency-risk”“efficiency-time”“efficiency-space”and“efficiency-equality”always exits in the form of non-mainstream economics. The basic assumption of the“economic rationality”of the modern economic theory should be characterized by multi dimension. The majority of individuals’preferences’behavior can be interpreted as the economic rational behavior in accordance with other dimensions of decision making. Economic decision-making in reality is often a multi dimension selection and the process of sorting.

  14. Social class variation in risk: a comparative analysis of the dynamics of economic vulnerability.

    Whelan, Christopher T; Maître, Bertrand

    2008-12-01

    A joint concern with multidimensionality and dynamics is a defining feature of the pervasive use of the terminology of social exclusion in the European Union. The notion of social exclusion focuses attention on economic vulnerability in the sense of exposure to risk and uncertainty. Sociological concern with these issues has been associated with the thesis that risk and uncertainty have become more pervasive and extend substantially beyond the working class. This paper combines features of recent approaches to statistical modelling of poverty dynamics and multidimensional deprivation in order to develop our understanding of the dynamics of economic vulnerability. An analysis involving nine countries and covering the first five waves of the European Community Household Panel shows that, across nations and time, it is possible to identify an economically vulnerable class. This class is characterized by heightened risk of falling below a critical resource level, exposure to material deprivation and experience of subjective economic stress. Cross-national differentials in persistence of vulnerability are wider than in the case of income poverty and less affected by measurement error. Economic vulnerability profiles vary across welfare regimes in a manner broadly consistent with our expectations. Variation in the impact of social class within and across countries provides no support for the argument that its role in structuring such risk has become much less important. Our findings suggest that it is possible to accept the importance of the emergence of new forms of social risk and acknowledge the significance of efforts to develop welfare states policies involving a shift of opportunities and decision making on to individuals without accepting the 'death of social class' thesis.

  15. An entropy-based multi-criterion group decision analysis method of selecting the optimum weak-subgrade treatment

    LUO Jun-jun; ZHENG Jun-jie; SUN Ling; ZHANG Shi-biao

    2008-01-01

    Proper treatment of weak subgrade soil is very important to building a highway of good quality. We proposed an entropy-based multi-criterion group decision analysis method for a group of experts to evaluate alternatives of weak subgrade treatment, with an aim to select the optimum technique which is technically, economically and socially viable. We used fuzzy theory to analyze multiple experts' evaluation on various factors of each alterative treatment. Different experts' evaluations are integrated by the group eigenvalue method. An entropy weight is introduced to minimize the negative influences of subjective human factors of experts. The optimum alternative is identified with ideal point discriminant analysis to calculate the distance of each alternative to the ideal point and prioritize all alternatives according to their distances. A case study on a section of the Shiman Expressway verified that the proposed method can give a rational decision on the optimum method of weak subgrade treatment.

  16. When is enough evidence enough? - Using systematic decision analysis and value-of-information analysis to determine the need for further evidence.

    Siebert, Uwe; Rochau, Ursula; Claxton, Karl

    2013-01-01

    Decision analysis (DA) and value-of-information (VOI) analysis provide a systematic, quantitative methodological framework that explicitly considers the uncertainty surrounding the currently available evidence to guide healthcare decisions. In medical decision making under uncertainty, there are two fundamental questions: 1) What decision should be made now given the best available evidence (and its uncertainty)?; 2) Subsequent to the current decision and given the magnitude of the remaining uncertainty, should we gather further evidence (i.e., perform additional studies), and if yes, which studies should be undertaken (e.g., efficacy, side effects, quality of life, costs), and what sample sizes are needed? Using the currently best available evidence, VoI analysis focuses on the likelihood of making a wrong decision if the new intervention is adopted. The value of performing further studies and gathering additional evidence is based on the extent to which the additional information will reduce this uncertainty. A quantitative framework allows for the valuation of the additional information that is generated by further research, and considers the decision maker's objectives and resource constraints. Claxton et al. summarise: "Value of information analysis can be used to inform a range of policy questions including whether a new technology should be approved based on existing evidence, whether it should be approved but additional research conducted or whether approval should be withheld until the additional evidence becomes available." [Claxton K. Value of information entry in Encyclopaedia of Health Economics, Elsevier, forthcoming 2014.] The purpose of this tutorial is to introduce the framework of systematic VoI analysis to guide further research. In our tutorial article, we explain the theoretical foundations and practical methods of decision analysis and value-of-information analysis. To illustrate, we use a simple case example of a foot ulcer (e.g., with

  17. Combination of material flow analysis and substance flow analysis: a powerful approach for decision support in waste management.

    Stanisavljevic, Nemanja; Brunner, Paul H

    2014-08-01

    The novelty of this paper is the demonstration of the effectiveness of combining material flow analysis (MFA) with substance flow analysis (SFA) for decision making in waste management. Both MFA and SFA are based on the mass balance principle. While MFA alone has been applied often for analysing material flows quantitatively and hence to determine the capacities of waste treatment processes, SFA is more demanding but instrumental in evaluating the performance of a waste management system regarding the goals "resource conservation" and "environmental protection". SFA focuses on the transformations of wastes during waste treatment: valuable as well as hazardous substances and their transformations are followed through the entire waste management system. A substance-based approach is required because the economic and environmental properties of the products of waste management - recycling goods, residues and emissions - are primarily determined by the content of specific precious or harmful substances. To support the case that MFA and SFA should be combined, a case study of waste management scenarios is presented. For three scenarios, total material flows are quantified by MFA, and the mass flows of six indicator substances (C, N, Cl, Cd, Pb, Hg) are determined by SFA. The combined results are compared to the status quo in view of fulfilling the goals of waste management. They clearly point out specific differences between the chosen scenarios, demonstrating potentials for improvement and the value of the combination of MFA/SFA for decision making in waste management.

  18. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities

    Allison, T.; Hunter, S.; Calzonetti, F.J.

    1992-10-01

    This report investigates how communities hosting nuclear facilities form and express perceptions of risk and how these risk perceptions affect local economic development. Information was collected from site visits and interviews with plant personnel, officials of local and state agencies, and community activists in the hosting communities. Six commercial nuclear fuel production facilities and five nuclear facilities operated for the US Department of Energy by private contractors were chosen for analysis. The results presented in the report indicate that the nature of risk perceptions depends on a number of factors. These factors are (1) level of communication by plant officials within the local community, (2) track record of the facility. operator, (3) process through which community and state officials receive information and form opinions, (4) level of economic links each plant has with the local community, and (15) physical characteristics of the facility itself. This report finds that in the communities studied, adverse ask perceptions have not affected business location decisions, employment levels in the local community, tourism, or agricultural development. On the basis of case-study findings, this report recommends that nuclear facility siting programs take the following observations into account when addressing perceptions of risk. First, the quality of a facility`s participation with community activists, interest groups, and state agencies helps to determine the level of perceived risk within a community. Second, the development of strong economic links between nuclear facilities and their host communities will produce a higher level of acceptance of the nuclear facilities.

  19. A Techno-Economic Analysis of Emission Controls on Hydrocarbon Biofuel Production

    Bhatt, Arpit; Zhang, Yimin; Davis, Ryan; Eberle, Annika; Heath, Garvin

    2016-06-23

    Biofuels have the potential to reduce our dependency on petroleum-derived transportation fuels and decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although the overall GHG emissions from biofuels are expected to be lower when compared to those of petroleum fuels, the process of converting biomass feedstocks into biofuels emits various air pollutants, which may be subject to federal air quality regulation or emission limits. While prior research has evaluated the technical and economic feasibility of biofuel technologies, gaps still exist in understanding the regulatory issues associated with the biorefineries and their economic implications on biofuel production costs (referred to as minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) in this study). The aim of our research is to evaluate the economic impact of implementing emission reduction technologies at biorefineries and estimate the cost effectiveness of two primary control technologies that may be required for air permitting purposes. We analyze a lignocellulosic sugars-to-hydrocarbon biofuel production pathway developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and implement air emission controls in Aspen Plus to evaluate how they affect the MFSP. Results from this analysis can help inform decisions about biorefinery siting and sizing, as well as mitigate the risks associated with air permitting.

  20. Analysis on the coupling law between economic development and the environment in (U)rümqi city

    WANG HongWei; ZHANG XiaoLei; WEI ShanFeng; KANG Hong

    2007-01-01

    The inter-coupling relationship between urban economic development and the ecological environment refers to the total of interactive, inter-influenced and other non-linear relations between economic and environmental systems in the course of economic development. Taking (U)rümqi, an oasis city in arid region, as an example, we collected the data of environmental quality & pollutants discharge and information on economic development in the 20 years, analyzed the correlation between the two, conducted a fitted regression with quadratic and cubic equations, and acquired 14 mathematic models that could describe the relationship between the environment and economic development. The results show that there exists a coordinated and interactive relationship between the environment and economic development. On the basis of these quantity analyses, conceptional frame model is built to explain the fundamental basis of this environmental coupling in (U)rümqi city. Both a quantitative analysis of the coupling law and a good command of the internal law between them are useful for making comprehensive decisions about the environment and economic development and harmonizing the urban sustainable development.

  1. Techno-economic analysis of bioenergy systems; Bioenergiasysteemien teknistaloudellinen analyysi. IEA Bioenergy Agreement Techno-economic Analysis

    Solantausta, Y.

    1995-12-31

    The objectives of the IEA Bioenergy Technoeconomic Analysis Activity are: To promote development of thermochemical biomass conversion methods by carrying out selected site specific feasibility studies in participating countries. Both agricultural and woody biomasses will be converted either into electricity or boiler fuels. To compare advanced technologies to commercial alternatives based on techno-economic basis to establish future development needs. To facilitate information exchange between participants on relevant basic process issues. Five countries (Finland, Canada, USA, Norway, Austria) are participating to the Activity. Initially two feasibility studies are planned for each country. Each study has three common elements: site specific, technical, and economic data. The site specific cases are described below in short. Products in the cases are electricity, heat and fuel oil. Total of two cases per country are planned

  2. Examination of European Union economic cohesion: A cluster analysis approach

    Jiri Mazurek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the past years majority of EU members experienced the highest economic decline in their modern history, but impacts of the global financial crisis were not distributed homogeneously across the continent. The aim of the paper is to examine a cohesion of European Union (plus Norway and Iceland in terms of an economic development of its members from the 1st of January 2008 to the 31st of December 2012. For the study five economic indicators were selected: GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, labour productivity and government debt. Annual data from Eurostat databases were averaged over the whole period and then used as an input for a cluster analysis. It was found that EU countries were divided into six different clusters. The most populated cluster with 14 countries covered Central and West Europe and reflected relative homogeneity of this part of Europe. Countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Portugal and Spain shared their own cluster of the most affected countries by the recent crisis as well as the Baltics and the Balkans states in another cluster. On the other hand Slovakia and Poland, only two countries that escaped a recession, were classified in their own cluster of the most successful countries

  3. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PEANUT PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

    Nelly BENCHEVA

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Peanut is not listed as one of the major crops in the Bulgarian agricultural sector, but its economic and fi nancial viability is promising, but unknown. We use enterprise budgets, capital budgeting techniques, risk analysis and logistic regression models to examine the fi nancial and economic structure of peanut farms and to evaluate the factors infl uencing short and long-term profi tability. The results show that peanut production is a profi table venture for most peanut farmers in Bulgaria. Long-run analyses show that peanut production may be economically feasible and producers engaged in production for a period of seven years, and at a discount rate of 13%, may generate internal rates of return (IRR that vary from -20.57% to 67.39%. About 70% of the farms studied had IRRs greater than the discount rate. Sensitivity analyses show that profi tability of peanut production was infl uenced by yield and variable costs. There were risks at the village level associated with peanut production.

  4. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    Jalal Mohammed

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules within the decentralised services. Results Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited.

  5. Structure and analysis of IS decision-making processes

    Boonstra, A.

    2003-01-01

    Decisions to invest in information systems (IS) are made by many organisations on a very regular basis. Such decisions can vary from quickly identifying the problem, screening options and choosing a solution in a very straightforward way, to very extensive and repeated search, screen, design and neg

  6. Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

    Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

    2008-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend be...

  7. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biofuels Production Based on Gasification

    Swanson, R. M.; Platon, A.; Satrio, J. A.; Brown, R. C.; Hsu, D. D.

    2010-11-01

    This study compares capital and production costs of two biomass-to-liquid production plants based on gasification. The first biorefinery scenario is an oxygen-fed, low-temperature (870?C), non-slagging, fluidized bed gasifier. The second scenario is an oxygen-fed, high-temperature (1,300?C), slagging, entrained flow gasifier. Both are followed by catalytic Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydroprocessing to naphtha-range (gasoline blend stock) and distillate-range (diesel blend stock) liquid fractions. Process modeling software (Aspen Plus) is utilized to organize the mass and energy streams and cost estimation software is used to generate equipment costs. Economic analysis is performed to estimate the capital investment and operating costs. Results show that the total capital investment required for nth plant scenarios is $610 million and $500 million for high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios, respectively. Product value (PV) for the high-temperature and low-temperature scenarios is estimated to be $4.30 and $4.80 per gallon of gasoline equivalent (GGE), respectively, based on a feedstock cost of $75 per dry short ton. Sensitivity analysis is also performed on process and economic parameters. This analysis shows that total capital investment and feedstock cost are among the most influential parameters affecting the PV.

  8. Wind Energy in Poland - economic analysis of wind farm

    Gnatowska Renata

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power generation is the most dynamically developing branch of renewable energy sector in Poland. The high price of coal and its negative environmental impact result in ever growing support for the renewable energy in the energy sector. Wind power industry produces clean energy, but costs of investments are very high. Process of creating a wind farm is very long and complicated. It requires the knowledge of many disciplines such as law, economics, energetic. The aim of this paper was study the state and the development of the wind power sector, especially wind farm in Poland. The economic analysis on investment in wind farm in Poland according to a new act on renewable energy sources was presented. The subject of this analysis was to estimate profitability of wind farm project 40 MW capacity. The analysis includes the comparison of various support systems - the system of green certificates and the new - auction model on the profitability of investment in wind farm. This aims to show how important is appropriate government support for producers of green energy words.

  9. Economic analysis of preventing introduction of ragweed in Denmark

    Schou, Jesper Sølver

    .000 new cases of allergy and asthma will emerge if rag weed is fully established in Denmark leading to significant socio economic costs. As ragweed has not yet established in Denmark the management options are open for discussion. In this paper two basic options are analyzed: a. Prevention of introduction...... or b. Do nothing and treat the allergy symptoms thru standard medical care. The analysis shows that the costs of preventing introduction of ragweed thru yearly control campaigns is significantly lower than the costs of treating the allergy symptoms, implying that preventing introduction...

  10. Cogeneration from Poultry Industry Wastes -- Part II: Economic Analysis

    Bianchi, M.; Cherubini, F.; Pascale, A. D.

    2003-01-01

    of a Indirectly Fired Gas Turbine (Part I). Moreover a Steam Turbine Plant or a simplified system for the supply of the only technological steam are investigated and compared. Thermodynamic and economic analysis have been carried out for the examined configurations in order to outline the basic differences...... an existing poultry industry as fuel. Different plant configurations have been considered in order to make use of the oil and of the meat and bone meal, which are the by-products of the chicken cooking process. In particular, the process plant can be integrated with an energy supply plant which can consist...

  11. Selection of invasive wild pig countermeasures using multicriteria decision analysis.

    Brondum, Matthew C; Collier, Zachary A; Luke, Christopher S; Goatcher, Buddy L; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Wild pigs are a widespread invasive species that pose significant environmental and social risks. A number of wild pig eradication and control measures exist, but many eradication campaigns are ultimately unsuccessful. Decision making regarding how to design and execute an eradication plan is difficult because of multiple costs and benefits spanning various decision criteria that are associated with different eradication and control countermeasures. Moreover, multiple stakeholders are often involved with differing and sometimes competing objectives, and wild pigs are adaptive adversaries, meaning that the ideal countermeasure may change over time. In this paper, we propose the use of formal decision analytic tools which can structure decision problems into a set of relevant criteria, countermeasures, and stakeholder preferences to facilitate the evaluation of tradeoffs. We operationalize this method in a simple Excel-based decision tool and conclude with a path forward regarding how to successfully implement such tools for effective wild pig control.

  12. Utility Analysis on Supply of Rural Public Policies in North Bay Economic Zone

    Changzhen; LI; Dafeng; YE

    2013-01-01

    From analysis on internal and external motive forces of development in North Bay Economic Zone, it indicates that public policies, as basic methods of government intervening against social and economic activities, are fundamental public goods produced by government. Effective supply of public policies brings rural economic growth, environmental protection and sustainable development, which greatly stimulates rural consumption, expands domestic demand and spurs economic growth, showing significant "multiplier effect". In this situation, this paper studies conditions for rural economic development and social transformation of the North Bay Economic Zone. Results show that social and economic development of rural areas of the North Bay Economic Zone needs scientific, reasonable and effective "public policies".

  13. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  14. Hydrogen and Water: An Engineering, Economic and Environmental Analysis

    Simon, A J; Daily, W; White, R G

    2010-01-06

    The multi-year program plan for the Department of Energy's Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Technology Program (USDOE, 2007a) calls for the development of system models to determine economic, environmental and cross-cutting impacts of the transition to a hydrogen economy. One component of the hydrogen production and delivery chain is water; water's use and disposal can incur costs and environmental consequences for almost any industrial product. It has become increasingly clear that due to factors such as competing water demands and climate change, the potential for a water-constrained world is real. Thus, any future hydrogen economy will need to be constructed so that any associated water impacts are minimized. This, in turn, requires the analysis and comparison of specific hydrogen production schemes in terms of their water use. Broadly speaking, two types of water are used in hydrogen production: process water and cooling water. In the production plant, process water is used as a direct input for the conversion processes (e.g. steam for Steam Methane Reforming {l_brace}SMR{r_brace}, water for electrolysis). Cooling water, by distinction, is used indirectly to cool related fluids or equipment, and is an important factor in making plant processes efficient and reliable. Hydrogen production further relies on water used indirectly to generate other feedstocks required by a hydrogen plant. This second order indirect water is referred to here as 'embedded' water. For example, electricity production uses significant quantities of water; this 'thermoelectric cooling' contributes significantly to the total water footprint of the hydrogen production chain. A comprehensive systems analysis of the hydrogen economy includes the aggregate of the water intensities from every step in the production chain including direct, indirect, and embedded water. Process and cooling waters have distinct technical quality requirements. Process water, which is typically

  15. Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis; The Algebraic Approach

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractIn Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of

  16. Additive reprensentations of preferences, a new foundation of decision analysis: the algebraic approach

    Wakker, P.P.; Doignon, J.P.; Falmagne, J.C.

    1991-01-01

    In Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of utility dif

  17. An Analysis of the U.S. Navy’s Military Housing Privatization Initiative and the Application of Transaction Cost Economics as a Component of the Decision Framework for the Establishment of Future Partnerships Between the Department of Defense and Private Sector Industry

    2004-12-01

    pace. This study provides an overview of the Navy’s use of the joint venture authority. Additionally, the concept of Transaction Cost Economics is...provided effective means to resolve DoD’s military housing dilemma. Additionally, the application of Transaction Cost Economics has proven beneficial

  18. A NEW HYBRID FORECASTING ALGORITHM AND ITS APPLICATION IN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

    2007-01-01

    There exists a great deal of periodic non-stationary processes in natural, social and economical phenomenon. It is very important to realize the dynamic analysis and real-time forecast within a period. In this letter, a wavelet-Kalman hybrid estimation and forecasting algorithm based on step-by-step filtering with the real-time and recursion property is put forward. It combines the advantages of Kalman filter and wavelet transform. Utilizing the information provided by multisensor effectively, this algorithm can realize not only real-time tracking and dynamic multi-step forecasting within a period, but also the dynamic forecasting between periods, and it has a great value to the system decision-making. Simulation results show that this algorithm is valuable.

  19. Can we do better? Economic analysis of human resource investment to improve home care service for the elderly in Serbia

    Mihic MM

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Marko M Mihic, Marija Lj Todorovic, Vladimir Lj Obradovic, Zorica M Mitrovic Department for Management and Specialised Management Disciplines, Faculty of Organisational Sciences, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia Background: Social services aimed at the elderly are facing great challenges caused by progressive aging of the global population but also by the constant pressure to spend funds in a rational manner.Purpose: This paper focuses on analyzing the investments into human resources aimed at enhancing home care for the elderly since many countries have recorded progress in the area over the past years. The goal of this paper is to stress the significance of performing an economic analysis of the investment.Methods: This paper combines statistical analysis methods such as correlation and regression analysis, methods of economic analysis, and scenario method.Results: The economic analysis of investing in human resources for home care service in Serbia showed that the both scenarios of investing in either additional home care hours or more beneficiaries are cost-efficient. However, the optimal solution with the positive (and the highest value of economic net present value criterion is to invest in human resources to boost the number of home care hours from 6 to 8 hours per week and increase the number of the beneficiaries to 33%.Conclusion: This paper shows how the statistical and economic analysis results can be used to evaluate different scenarios and enable quality decision-making based on exact data in order to improve health and quality of life of the elderly and spend funds in a rational manner. Keywords: home care, social investment, human resources, economic analysis, elderly

  20. The Global Challenge of Antimicrobial Resistance: Insights from Economic Analysis

    Richard J. Zeckhauser

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AR limits the therapeutic options for treatment of infections, and increases the social benefit from disease prevention. Like an environmental resource, antimicrobials require stewardship. The effectiveness of an antimicrobial agent is a global public good. We argue for greater use of economic analysis as an input to policy discussion about AR, including for understanding the incentives underlying health behaviors that spawn AR, and to supplement other methods of tracing the evolution of AR internationally. We also discuss integrating antimicrobial stewardship into global health governance.The prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AR limits the therapeutic options for treatment of infections, and increases the social benefit from disease prevention. Like an environmental resource, antimicrobials require stewardship. The effectiveness of an antimicrobial agent is a global public good. We argue for greater use of economic analysis as an input to policy discussion about AR, including for understanding the incentives underlying health behaviors that spawn AR, and to supplement other methods of tracing the evolution of AR internationally. We also discuss integrating antimicrobial stewardship into global health governance.

  1. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SELECTED ADSORPTION BEDS USED FOR WATER TREATMENT

    Iwona Skoczko

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In the paper an economic analysis of the sorption deposits used for water purification was performed. Such masses of carbon as Organosorb 10 deposit, Norit ROW 0.8 Supra deposit, Hydroantracyt N deposit and K110 deposit were selected. The economic substantiation for the selection of specific deposits was based on the purchase cost of filter deposits, the environmental fee for water intake, the cost of equipment to aerate water, the cost of chemicals for deposits regeneration, the cost of the dosing pump reagents for regeneration generated during the process of adsorption using each of the deposits selected to the analysis. K110 deposit turned out to be the cheapest in the exploitation and Norit ROW 0.8 Supra was most expensive. The operating costs of the adsorption deposits depend mainly on the purchase of the adsorbent and the speed of adsorption. Moreover, environmental fee for water intake constitutes a significant share in the costs of exploitation of carbon deposits , which is greater than the deposit costs.

  2. Smoking cessation: an economic analysis and review of varenicline

    Michele A Faulkner

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Michele A FaulknerCreighton University School of Pharmacy and Health Professions, Omaha, NE, USAAbstract: Despite efforts to decrease tobacco use, smoking continues to be a leading cause of preventable morbidity and premature death. The associated economic burden is substantial, both in the form of direct costs (healthcare expenditures and indirect costs (lost productivity, regardless of whether the burden is assessed from the standpoint of an employer, a health plan, or society as a whole. Cessation programs are considered among the most cost-effective in healthcare, and are often used as a benchmark for other medical interventions. This analysis specifically considers the cost-effectiveness of varenicline, a novel α4β2 partial agonist used for smoking cessation, in comparison to other approved therapies. Clinical trial data have demonstrated that varenicline has the ability to decrease cravings and withdrawal symptoms, and lessen positive reinforcement associated with smoking. Varenicline’s novel mechanism has translated into superior efficacy in comparison to other available therapies. For this reason, despite an initial cost that typically exceeds that of other medications, varenicline is a cost-effective option for smoking cessation.Keywords: cost-effectiveness, economic analysis, smoking cessation, varenicline 

  3. THE INFLUENCE OF TH E DECISIONS OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS IN THE JURISPRUDENCE OF THE COLOMBIAN CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RELATED TO ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, AND CULTURAL RIGHTS

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between law and economics has been an area in which there has been increasing interests among lawyers, economists, and politicians in recent years. Despite this interest, the links between these two disciplines have not been fully approached by Colombian researchers in the subject of Human Rights, especially Economic, Social, and Cultural ones. The purpose of this research is to fill a gap in this area by analyzing the influence that decisions of international organizations h...

  4. The use of health economics to guide drug development decisions: Determining optimal values for an RSV-vaccine in a model-based scenario-analytic approach.

    Bos, J M; Rietveld, E; Moll, H A; Steyerberg, E W; Luytjes, W; Wilschut, J C; de Groot, R; Postma, M J

    2007-09-28

    Health-economic modelling is useful for assessing the clinical requirements and impact of new vaccines. In this study, we estimate the impact of potential vaccination for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) of infants in the Netherlands. A decision analysis model was employed using seasonal data from a cohort of children (1996-1997 through 1999-2000) to assess hospitalisation, costs and impact of vaccination. Yearly, an estimated 3670 infants are hospitalised with RSV-infection in the Netherlands, vaccination protecting infants from 3 months of life onwards could prevent approximately 1000-3000 hospitalisations, depending on the effectiveness of the potential vaccine. Additionally, vaccination could prevent a major share of RSV-related costs. Comparison of the calculated break-even prices with the average price of recently introduced vaccines indicates that pricing for a potential RSV-vaccine most likely allows for only a single dose vaccination or several doses at a relatively low price per dose in order to achieve cost savings. However, if evidence on relevant RSV-related mortality would become available, higher pricing would be justified, while still remaining below accepted thresholds for cost-effectiveness.

  5. An updated comprehensive techno-economic analysis of algae biodiesel.

    Nagarajan, Sanjay; Chou, Siaw Kiang; Cao, Shenyan; Wu, Chen; Zhou, Zhi

    2013-10-01

    Algae biodiesel is a promising but expensive alternative fuel to petro-diesel. To overcome cost barriers, detailed cost analyses are needed. A decade-old cost analysis by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory indicated that the costs of algae biodiesel were in the range of $0.53-0.85/L (2012 USD values). However, the cost of land and transesterification were just roughly estimated. In this study, an updated comprehensive techno-economic analysis was conducted with optimized processes and improved cost estimations. Latest process improvement, quotes from vendors, government databases, and other relevant data sources were used to calculate the updated algal biodiesel costs, and the final costs of biodiesel are in the range of $0.42-0.97/L. Additional improvements on cost-effective biodiesel production around the globe to cultivate algae was also recommended. Overall, the calculated costs seem promising, suggesting that a single step biodiesel production process is close to commercial reality.

  6. Economic analysis of waste-to-energy industry in China.

    Zhao, Xin-Gang; Jiang, Gui-Wu; Li, Ang; Wang, Ling

    2016-02-01

    The generation of municipal solid waste is further increasing in China with urbanization and improvement of living standards. The "12th five-year plan" period (2011-2015) promotes waste-to-energy technologies for the harmless disposal and recycling of municipal solid waste. Waste-to-energy plant plays an important role for reaching China's energy conservation and emission reduction targets. Industrial policies and market prospect of waste-to-energy industry are described. Technology, cost and benefit of waste-to-energy plant are also discussed. Based on an economic analysis of a waste-to-energy project in China (Return on Investment, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, and Sensitivity Analysis) the paper makes the conclusions.

  7. Antieigenvalue analysis for continuum mechanics, economics, and number theory

    Gustafson Karl

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available My recent book Antieigenvalue Analysis, World-Scientific, 2012, presented the theory of antieigenvalues from its inception in 1966 up to 2010, and its applications within those forty-five years to Numerical Analysis, Wavelets, Statistics, Quantum Mechanics, Finance, and Optimization. Here I am able to offer three further areas of application: Continuum Mechanics, Economics, and Number Theory. In particular, the critical angle of repose in a continuum model of granular materials is shown to be exactly my matrix maximum turning angle of the stress tensor of the material. The important Sharpe ratio of the Capital Asset Pricing Model is now seen in terms of my antieigenvalue theory. Euclid’s Formula for Pythagorean triples becomes a special case of my operator trigonometry.

  8. Method of Economic Evaluation for Ship Form Development Decision Making Based on Gray Relational Theory and its Application%基于灰色关联的船型决策经济论证方法与应用

    陈继红

    2012-01-01

    船型经济论证是一项复杂的系统工程,涉及到多个指标和因素.针对多准则、多目标的船型经济论证决策问题,以灰色理论为基础,构建了基于灰色关联的船型决策经济论证方法和决策模型,并结合实际进行实证研究.实例计算分析结果表明,该方法在一定程度上考虑了船型方案各指标间的关联性,同时克服了船型决策过程中的主观臆断性,决策计算相对简单,方法与模型合理、实用.%Economic evaluation of the ship form is a complicated systematic project, which involves many indexes and factors. For the multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making problem of economic evaluation of the ship form* a reasoning method and decision making model of economic evaluation of the ship form based on gray relational analysis are set up. The verification of the model is carried out with practical cases. Calculation results of practical cases show that the method reflects the correlation of the all indexes of the ship form to certain extent; subjectivity in the process of decision making concerning the ship form is eliminated and the calculation for decision making is relatively simple, so the method and models are rational and practical.

  9. Post-marketing access to orphan drugs: a critical analysis of health technology assessment and reimbursement decision-making considerations

    Iskrov G

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Georgi Iskrov, Rumen Stefanov Department of Social Medicine and Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Plovdiv, Bulgaria Abstract: This study aims to explore the current rationale of post-marketing access to orphan drugs. As access to orphan medicinal products depends on assessment and appraisal by health authorities, this article is focused on health technology assessment (HTA and reimbursement decision-making considerations for orphan drugs. A critical analysis may identify important factors that could predetermine the combined outcomes of these two processes. Following this objective, an analytical framework was developed, comprising three overlaying issues: to outline what is currently done and what needs to be done in the field of HTA of orphan drugs, to synthesize important variables relevant to the reimbursement decision-making about orphan drugs, and to unveil relationships between theory and practice. Methods for economic evaluation, cost-effectiveness threshold, budget impact, uncertainty of evidence, criteria in reimbursement decision-making, and HTA research agenda are all explored and discussed from an orphan drug perspective. Reimbursement decision-making for orphan drugs is a debate of policy priorities, health system specifics, and societal attitudes. Health authorities need to pursue a multidisciplinary analysis on a range of criteria, ensuring an explicit understanding of the trade-offs for decisions related to eligibility for reimbursement. The only reasonable way to accept a higher valuation of orphan drug benefits is if these are demonstrated empirically. Rarity means that the quality of orphan drug evidence is not the same as for conventional therapies. Closing this gap is another crucial point for the timely access to these products. The generation of evidence goes far beyond pre-market authorization trials and requires transnational cooperation and coordination. Early constructive dialogue among orphan drug

  10. REVASCULARIZATION FOR FEMOROPOPLITEAL DISEASE - A DECISION AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS

    HUNINK, MGM; WONG, JB; DONALDSON, MC; MEYEROVITZ, MF; DEVRIES, J; HARRINGTON, DP

    1995-01-01

    Objective.-To evaluate the relative benefits and cost-effectiveness of revascularization for femoropopliteal disease using percutaneous transluminal angioplasty or bypass surgery. Design.-Decision analysis using a multistate transition simulation model (Markov process) and cost-effectiveness analysi

  11. Hit-And-Run enables efficient weight generation for simulation-based multiple criteria decision analysis

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Basturk, Nalan; Postmus, Douwe

    2013-01-01

    Models for Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) often separate per-criterion attractiveness evaluation from weighted aggregation of these evaluations across the different criteria. In simulation-based MCDA methods, such as Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis, uncertainty in the wei

  12. Economic analysis of cloud-based desktop virtualization implementation at a hospital

    Yoo Sooyoung

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cloud-based desktop virtualization infrastructure (VDI is known as providing simplified management of application and desktop, efficient management of physical resources, and rapid service deployment, as well as connection to the computer environment at anytime, anywhere with anydevice. However, the economic validity of investing in the adoption of the system at a hospital has not been established. Methods This study computed the actual investment cost of the hospital-wide VDI implementation at the 910-bed Seoul National University Bundang Hospital in Korea and the resulting effects (i.e., reductions in PC errors and difficulties, application and operating system update time, and account management time. Return on investment (ROI, net present value (NPV, and internal rate of return (IRR indexes used for corporate investment decision-making were used for the economic analysis of VDI implementation. Results The results of five-year cost-benefit analysis given for 400 Virtual Machines (VMs; i.e., 1,100 users in the case of SNUBH showed that the break-even point was reached in the fourth year of the investment. At that point, the ROI was 122.6%, the NPV was approximately US$192,000, and the IRR showed an investment validity of 10.8%. From our sensitivity analysis to changing the number of VMs (in terms of number of users, the greater the number of adopted VMs was the more investable the system was. Conclusions This study confirms that the emerging VDI can have an economic impact on hospital information system (HIS operation and utilization in a tertiary hospital setting.

  13. An analysis of symbolic linguistic computing models in decision making

    Rodríguez, Rosa M.; Martínez, Luis

    2013-01-01

    It is common that experts involved in complex real-world decision problems use natural language for expressing their knowledge in uncertain frameworks. The language is inherent vague, hence probabilistic decision models are not very suitable in such cases. Therefore, other tools such as fuzzy logic and fuzzy linguistic approaches have been successfully used to model and manage such vagueness. The use of linguistic information implies to operate with such a type of information, i.e. processes of computing with words (CWW). Different schemes have been proposed to deal with those processes, and diverse symbolic linguistic computing models have been introduced to accomplish the linguistic computations. In this paper, we overview the relationship between decision making and CWW, and focus on symbolic linguistic computing models that have been widely used in linguistic decision making to analyse if all of them can be considered inside of the CWW paradigm.

  14. THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS IN THE TOURISM SECTOR IN THE ACTUAL CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS

    Vasile ROBU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The past few years have witnessed many storms in the Tourism sector. Under the influence of an extremely volatile world economy (financial crisis, commodity and oil price rises, sharp exchange rate fluctuations, increase terrorism acts in several region with tourism potential Tourism demand slowed significantly. Yet, despite the current difficulties, the Tourism sector remains a critical economic sector worldwide and one that provides significant potential for economic growth and development internationally. A growing national Tourism sector contributes to raises national income, employment, and can improve a country's balance of payments. The sector is thus an important driver of growth and prosperity and,  within developing countries, it can play a leading role in poverty reduction. Despite the overall importance of developing the Tourism sector, many obstacles at the national level continue to hinder its development. This analysis aims to serve two purposes. First, we intend to provide useful comparative information for making decisions related to business and tourism development. Second, and more importantly, we hope that the analysis provides an opportunity for the Tourism industry to highlight the obstacles to Tourism competitiveness.

  15. Cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination among Libyan children using a simple economic model

    Alkoshi, Salem; Maimaiti, Namaitijiang; Dahlui, Maznah

    2014-01-01

    Background Rotavirus infection is a major cause of childhood diarrhea in Libya. The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in that country. Methods We used a published decision tree model that has been adapted to the Libyan situation to analyze a birth cohort of 160,000 children. The evaluation of diarrhea events in three public hospitals helped to estimate the rotavirus burden. The economic analysis was done from two perspectives: health care provider and societal. Univariate sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty in some values of the variables selected. Results The three hospitals received 545 diarrhea patients aged≤5 with 311 (57%) rotavirus positive test results during a 9-month period. The societal cost for treatment of a case of rotavirus diarrhea was estimated at US$ 661/event. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with a vaccine price of US$ 27 per course was US$ 8,972 per quality-adjusted life year gained from the health care perspective. From a societal perspective, the analysis shows cost savings of around US$ 16 per child. Conclusion The model shows that rotavirus vaccination could be economically a very attractive intervention in Libya. PMID:25499622

  16. Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Trees and Neural Networks

    Chong, Miao M.; Abraham, Ajith; Paprzycki, Marcin

    2004-01-01

    The costs of fatalities and injuries due to traffic accident have a great impact on society. This paper presents our research to model the severity of injury resulting from traffic accidents using artificial neural networks and decision trees. We have applied them to an actual data set obtained from the National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) General Estimates System (GES). Experiment results reveal that in all the cases the decision tree outperforms the neural network. Our research analys...

  17. Clinical decision support tools: analysis of online drug information databases

    Seamon Matthew J; Polen Hyla H; Marsh Wallace A; Clauson Kevin A; Ortiz Blanca I

    2007-01-01

    Abstract Background Online drug information databases are used to assist in enhancing clinical decision support. However, the choice of which online database to consult, purchase or subscribe to is likely made based on subjective elements such as history of use, familiarity, or availability during professional training. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical decision support tools for drug information by systematically comparing the most commonly used online drug information datab...

  18. State of the art in benefit-risk analysis: economics and marketing-finance.

    Kalogeras, N; Odekerken-Schröder, G; Pennings, J M E; Gunnlaugsdóttir, H; Holm, F; Leino, O; Luteijn, J M; Magnússon, S H; Pohjola, M V; Tijhuis, M J; Tuomisto, J T; Ueland, Ø; White, B C; Verhagen, H

    2012-01-01

    All market participants (e.g., investors, producers, consumers) accept a certain level of risk as necessary to achieve certain benefits. There are many types of risk including price, production, financial, institutional, and individual human risks. All these risks should be effectively managed in order to derive the utmost of benefits and avoid disruption and/or catastrophic economic consequences for the food industry. The identification, analysis, determination, and understanding of the benefit-risk trade-offs of market participants in the food markets may help policy makers, financial analysts and marketers to make well-informed and effective corporate investment strategies in order to deal with highly uncertain and risky situations. In this paper, we discuss the role that benefits and risks play in the formation of the decision-making process of market-participants, who are engaged in the upstream and downstream stages of the food supply chain. In addition, we review the most common approaches (expected utility model and psychometrics) for measuring benefit-risk trade-offs in the economics and marketing-finance literature, and different factors that may affect the economic behaviour in the light of benefit-risk analyses. Building on the findings of our review, we introduce a conceptual framework to study the benefit-risk behaviour of market participants. Specifically, we suggest the decoupling of benefits and risks into the separate components of utilitarian benefits, hedonic benefits, and risk attitude and risk perception, respectively. Predicting and explaining how market participants in the food industry form their overall attitude in light of benefit-risk trade-offs may be critical for policy-makers and managers who need to understand the drivers of the economic behaviour of market participants with respect to production, marketing and consumption of food products.

  19. Applying Recursive Sensitivity Analysis to Multi-Criteria Decision Models to Reduce Bias in Defense Cyber Engineering Analysis

    2015-10-28

    Considerable research has been conducted on the topic of decision aiding methods such as Multi -criteria and Multi - objective Decision Analysis to...the best compromise solution amongst multiple or infinite possibilities. This is generally known as Multi - Objective Decision Making (MODM). For the...from those of the program manager, resource sponsor, or even the user. This research focuses on the use of recursive sensitivity analysis to mitigate

  20. 78 FR 66929 - Intent To Conduct a Detailed Economic Impact Analysis

    2013-11-07

    ... Conduct a Detailed Economic Impact Analysis AGENCY: Policy and Planning Division, Export-Import Bank of... public of its intent to conduct a detailed economic impact analysis regarding a loan guarantee to support... this transaction by email to economic.impact@exim.gov or by mail to 811 Vermont Avenue NW., Room...

  1. Employing SWOT Analysis in Coursework on the Geographies of Regional Economic Development and Trade

    Kalafsky, Ronald V.; Sonnichsen, Tyler

    2015-01-01

    The use of SWOT analysis is a means through which geography students can investigate key concepts in economic geography and essential topics in regional economic development. This article discusses the results of a course project where economic geography students employed SWOT analysis to explore medium-sized metropolitan areas across the southern…

  2. Environmental and economic analysis of management systems for biodegradable waste

    Sonesson, U. [Department of Agricultural Engineering, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7033, S-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Bjoerklund, A. [Department of Chemical Engineering and Technology/Industrial Ecology, Royal Institute of Technology, S-100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Carlsson, M. [Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 7013, S-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden); Dalemo, M. [Swedish Institute of Agricultural Engineering, P.O. Box 7033, S-750 07 Uppsala (Sweden)

    2000-01-01

    The management system for solid and liquid organic waste affects the environment and surrounding technical systems in several ways. In order to decrease the environmental impact and resource use, biological waste treatment and alternative solutions for sewage treatment are often advocated. These alternatives include increased agricultural use of waste residuals. To analyse whether such proposed systems indicate improvements for the environment and its sustainability, systems analysis is a useful method. The changes in environmental impact and resource use is not only a result of changes in waste treatment methods, but also largely a result of changes in surrounding systems (energy and agriculture) caused by changes in waste management practices. In order to perform a systems analysis, a substance-flow simulation model, the organic waste research model (ORWARE), has been used. The results are evaluated by using methodology from life cycle assessment (LCA). An economic analysis was also performed on three of the studied scenarios. The management system for solid organic waste and sewage in the municipality of Uppsala, Sweden, was studied. Three scenarios for different treatments of solid waste were analysed: incineration with heat recovery, composting, and anaerobic digestion. These three scenarios included conventional sewage treatment. A fourth scenario reviewed was anaerobic digestion of solid waste, using urine-separating toilets and separate handling of the urine fraction. The results are only valid for the case study and under the assumptions made. In this case study anaerobic digestion result in the lowest environmental impact of all the solid waste management systems, but is costly. Economically, incineration with heat recovery is the cheapest way to treat solid waste. Composting gives environmental advantages compared to incineration methods, without significantly increased costs. Urine separation, which may be implemented together with any solid waste

  3. Voluntary Participation in Community Economic Development in Canada: An Empirical Analysis

    Laura Lamb

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is an empirical analysis of an individual's decision to participate in community economic development (CED initiatives in Canada. The objective of the analysis is to better understand how individuals make decisions to volunteer time toward CED initiatives and to determine whether the determinants of participation in CED are unique when compared to those of participation in volunteer activities in general. The dataset employed is Statistics Canada's 2004 Canada Survey of Giving, Volunteering and Participating (CSGVP. To date, there has been no prior econometric analysis of the decision to participate in community economic development initiatives in Canada. Results suggest a role for both public policymakers and practitioners in influencing participation in CED. / Cet article constitue une analyse empirique du processus de prise de décision chez les individus en ce qui a trait à la participation aux initiatives canadiennes de développement économique communautaire (DÉC. Le but de l'analyse est de mieux comprendre la façon dont les individus prennent la décision de consacrer du temps au bénévolat dans les initiatives de DÉC. Elle sert aussi à trancher la question de savoir si les facteurs de participation aux initiatives de développement économique communautaire sont uniques ou communs à la participation à des activités bénévoles en général. Les données employées dans le cadre de cette analyse sont puisées de l'Enquête canadienne sur le don, le bénévolat et la participation effectuée par Statistique Canada en 2004. À ce jour, aucune analyse économétrique n'a été menée sur la décision de participer aux initiatives canadiennes de DÉC. Les résultats suggèrent que les responsables de l'élaboration des politiques ainsi que les praticiens influencent tous deux la participation aux initiatives de DÉC.

  4. Comparative analysis of eu membership candidate countries legal economic framework (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova

    L.V. Zharova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article. The article represents the results of analytical review and comparative analysis of EU membership candidate countries legal economic framework for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. The aim of the research is to show opportunities and illuminate the gaps for timely fulfillment of obligation in framework of euro integration process. The results of the analysis. The choice of countries is determined by similarity of political, economic, and social conditions including, inter alia: 1 the aftermath of the global economic crisis; 2 political crisis; 3 threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity, including the risk of armed conflict (the unlawful annexation of the Crimea and Sevastopol and destabilization in the Eastern Ukraine; occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia; and the Transnistria conflict in Moldova. Economic growth based on more efficient use of available scarce resources is the key to successful withstanding and overcoming these adverse factors. It implies that implementing the Association Agreement is closely linked with the transition toward a green economy. The comparative analysis determined some similarities in positive shifts for all countries. The following positive shifts characterizing the progress achieved by the countries can be highlighted: demonstration of proactive efforts toward meeting their commitments under the Association Agreement; existing policies, practices and programmes aiming to support the sustainable industrial and business development; reflection of the sustainable development and green economy issues in the official development strategies and their considering to be a priority; activation of effort to develop a system of specific indicators including those that can be used for measuring the efficiency of national policies; incorporation sustainable development objectives in the local development agendas and environmental action plans; taking active part in the international

  5. Notes on economic time series analysis system theoretic perspectives

    Aoki, Masanao

    1983-01-01

    In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor­ ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of wha...

  6. Economic viability analysis of carbon credits from sawmill residues

    Padilha, Jesse Luis; Canto, Sergio Aruana Elarrat; Duarte, Andre Augusto Azevedo Montenegro; Nogueira, Manoel Fernandes Martins [Universidade Federal do Para (UFPA), Belem, PA (Brazil). Inst. de Tecnologia (ITEC)]. E-mails: jessepadilha@hotmail.com; aruana@ufpa.br; amonte@ufpa.br; mfmn@ufpa.br

    2008-07-01

    Discussions on climate change began in Rio de Janeiro in the 1992 Conference on Poverty and the Environment, and since that time this problem has gained significant importance. A great advance in these discussions was made at the Kyoto Conference when Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) were devised to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, such as Carbon Credits for the reduction of CO{sub 2} emissions. Brazil has an exceptionally fine position with respect to the Kyoto treaty since it is a naturally large biomass producer providing an option for gaining Carbon credits by substituting petroleum for biomass as a fuel for industries, such as the lumber industry. This study examines the economic viability of using bio-fuels in sawmills as a way to obtain CDM. Two approach are used here. First, the credits are obtained substituting diesel fuel for biomass and the second is without diesel fuel substitution. For these analyses, economic simulations were made with, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Payback. Furthermore, sensibility analysis for alternative scenario were performed. (author)

  7. Comparative Analysis on Two Accounting Systems of Rural Economic Originations

    2011-01-01

    In order to normalize the financial account of two kinds of economic organizations,the comparative analysis is conducted on the Accounting System of Village Collective Economic Organization and Accounting System of Farmers’ Cooperatives(Trial) issued by the Ministry of Finance.The comparison points out that application and accounting principles of the two kinds of accounting systems are different.The differences and similarities of the five accounting elements are analyzed including property,liabilities,rights of owners,costs and profits and losses,as well as the reasons of the differences and similarities.Results show that both of the two accounting systems reflect the principles of simplification and clarification.The village collective accounting system works in rural village committee,which acts the administrative duties,the features of concerted benefits of it is showed.While the accounting system of farmers’ cooperatives is based on the village collective accounting system and combines the norms of accounting system of enterprises,so the system represents the demands of collaboration and profit-making.

  8. Distributed-sensor-system decision analysis using team strategies

    Choe, Howard C.; Kazakos, Demetrios

    1992-11-01

    A distributed (or decentralized) multiple sensor system is considered under binary hypothesis environments. The system is deployed with a host sensor (HS) and multiple slave sensors (SSs). All sensors have their own independent decision makers which are capable of declaring local decisions based solely on their own observation of the environment. The communication between the HS and the SSs is conditional upon the HS's command. Each communication that takes place involves a communication cost which plays an important role in the approaches taken in this study. The conditional communication with the cost initiates the team strategy in making the final decisions at the HS. The objectives are not only to apply the team strategy method in the decision making process, but also to minimize the expected system cost (or the probability of error in making decisions) by optimizing thresholds in the HS> The analytical expression of the expected system cost (C) is numerically evaluated for Gaussian statistics over threshold locations in the HS to find an optimal threshold location for a given communication cost. The computer simulations of various sensor systems for Gaussian observations are also performed in order to understand the behavior of each system with respect to correct detections, false, alarms, and target misses.

  9. Distributed sensor system decision analysis using team strategies

    Choe, Howard C.; Kazakos, Dimitri

    1991-07-01

    A distributed (or decentralized) multiple sensor system is considered under binary hypothesis environments. The system is deployed with a host sensor and multiple slave sensors. All sensors have their own independent decision makers (DM) which are capable of declaring local decisions based only on their own observation of the environment. The communication between the host sensor (HS) and the slave sensors (SS) is conditional upon the host sensor's command. Each communication that takes place involves a communication cost which plays an important role in approaches taken in this study. The conditional communication with cost initiates the team strategy in making the final decisions at the host sensor. The objectives are not only to apply the team strategy method in the decision making process, but also to minimize the expected system cost (or the probability or error in making decisions) by optimizing thresholds in the host sensor. The analytical expression of the expected system cost is numerically evaluated for Gaussian statistics over threshold locations in the host sensor to find an optimal threshold location for a given communication cost. The computer simulations of various sensor systems for Gaussian observations are also performed to understand the behavior of each system with respect to correct detections, false alarms, and target misses.

  10. Improving Decision Making In Cancer Treatment With A Mix Of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis And Ethical Perspective: Usa Example

    Kadir GÜRSOY

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In the world, healthcare costs have been on the rise and getting larger share in the economic pie. Since we have limited resources, allocation of resources becomes more of an issue. Cancer is one of most leading causes of death in the world and each year, money spent on cancer treatment goes up. However, today new cancer drugs and treatment only provide narrow benefit with very high costs. Therefore, only limited number of people enjoys getting the treatment and fewer treatment or drugs are reimbursed. In addition, many countries do not have a standard to decide whether a cancer drug or a treatment will be covered. Considering both economic efficiency (cost-effectiveness analysis and ethical issues together during the decision process is of great importance so as to distribute health resources fairly and maximize health benefits.

  11. An approach for economic analysis of intermodal transportation.

    Sahin, Bahri; Yilmaz, Huseyin; Ust, Yasin; Guneri, Ali Fuat; Gulsun, Bahadir; Turan, Eda

    2014-01-01

    A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode.

  12. An Economic Analysis of Identity and Career Choice

    Humlum, Maria Knoth; Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    2007-01-01

    Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary re- turns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof...... and Kranton (2000), we con- sider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors related to identity (career orientation and social orientation), which are important for educational...... choices. The implication is that policymakers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting the high ability youth to occupations with excess demand for labor....

  13. An Approach for Economic Analysis of Intermodal Transportation

    Bahri Sahin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A different intermodal transportation model based on cost analysis considering technical, economical, and operational parameters is presented. The model consists of such intermodal modes as sea-road, sea-railway, road-railway, and multimode of sea-road-railway. A case study of cargo transportation has been carried out by using the suggested model. Then, the single road transportation mode has been compared to intermodal modes in terms of transportation costs. This comparison takes into account the external costs of intermodal transportation. The research reveals that, in the short distance transportation, single transportation modes always tend to be advantageous. As the transportation distance gets longer, intermodal transportation advantages begin to be effective on the costs. In addition, the proposed method in this study leads to determining the fleet size and capacity for transportation and the appropriate transportation mode.

  14. The October 1973 NASA mission model analysis and economic assessment

    1974-01-01

    Results are presented of the 1973 NASA Mission Model Analysis. The purpose was to obtain an economic assessment of using the Shuttle to accommodate the payloads and requirements as identified by the NASA Program Offices and the DoD. The 1973 Payload Model represents a baseline candidate set of future payloads which can be used as a reference base for planning purposes. The cost of implementing these payload programs utilizing the capabilities of the shuttle system is analyzed and compared with the cost of conducting the same payload effort using expendable launch vehicles. There is a net benefit of 14.1 billion dollars as a result of using the shuttle during the 12-year period as compared to using an expendable launch vehicle fleet.

  15. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VAT EVOLUTION IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SYSTEM

    MIHAELA ANDREEA STROE

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a comparative analysis of VAT in different states of the world. I made some observation on this theme because I believe that VAT is very important in carrying out transactions and the increase or decrease of this tax has a major impact upon national economies and also on the quality of life in developing countries. The papers has to pourpose to make a comparison between the American and European system of taxation with its advantages and disadvantages and, in the end to render an economic model and its statistics components. VAT is a value added tax which appeared about 50 years, initially with two purposes: one to replace certain indirect taxes, and another to reduce the budget deficit according to the faith of that time. The first country that has adopted this model was France, calling it today as value-added tax.

  16. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VAT EVOLUTION IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SYSTEM

    Mihaela Andreea STROE

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study a comparative analysis of VAT in different states of the world. I made some observation on this theme because I believe that VAT is very important in carrying out transactions and the increase or decrease of this tax has a major impact upon national economies and also on the quality of life in developing countries. The papers has to pourpose to make a comparison between the American and European system of taxation with its advantages and disadvantages and, in the end to render an economic model and its statistics components. VAT is a value added tax which appeared about 50 years, initially with two purposes: one to replace certain indirect taxes, and another to reduce the budget deficit according to the faith of that time. The first country that has adopted this model was France, calling it today as value-added tax.

  17. How to pose the question matters: Behavioural Economics concepts in decision making on the basis of ensemble forecasts

    Alfonso, Leonardo; van Andel, Schalk Jan

    2014-05-01

    Part of recent research in ensemble and probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasting analyses which probabilistic information is required by decision makers and how it can be most effectively visualised. This work, in addition, analyses if decision making in flood early warning is also influenced by the way the decision question is posed. For this purpose, the decision-making game "Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?", which Ramos et al (2012) conducted at the EGU General Assembly 2012 in the city of Vienna, has been repeated with a small group and expanded. In that game decision makers had to decide whether or not to open a flood release gate, on the basis of flood forecasts, with and without uncertainty information. A conclusion of that game was that, in the absence of uncertainty information, decision makers are compelled towards a more risk-averse attitude. In order to explore to what extent the answers were driven by the way the questions were framed, in addition to the original experiment, a second variant was introduced where participants were asked to choose between a sure value (for either loosing or winning with a giving probability) and a gamble. This set-up is based on Kahneman and Tversky (1979). Results indicate that the way how the questions are posed may play an important role in decision making and that Prospect Theory provides promising concepts to further understand how this works.

  18. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

    O' Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

    2005-10-05

    We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties.

  19. An Information Theoretic Analysis of Decision in Computer Chess

    Godescu, Alexandru

    2011-01-01

    The basis of the method proposed in this article is the idea that information is one of the most important factors in strategic decisions, including decisions in computer chess and other strategy games. The model proposed in this article and the algorithm described are based on the idea of a information theoretic basis of decision in strategy games . The model generalizes and provides a mathematical justification for one of the most popular search algorithms used in leading computer chess programs, the fractional ply scheme. However, despite its success in leading computer chess applications, until now few has been published about this method. The article creates a fundamental basis for this method in the axioms of information theory, then derives the principles used in programming the search and describes mathematically the form of the coefficients. One of the most important parameters of the fractional ply search is derived from fundamental principles. Until now this coefficient has been usually handcrafted...

  20. Analysis of environmental and economic aspects of international pellet supply chains

    Ehrig, Rita

    2014-01-17

    Biomass plays a key role to achieve the EU's 20-20-20 energy and climate targets. Because of rising European demand and limited domestic resources, the EU relies on worldwide imports. Given this framework, the present thesis explores the influences on wood pellet supply chains considering different environmental policies, price risks and the effect of torrefaction pretreatment. The examinations refer to three real case studies for pellet trade from Australia, Canada, and Russia to Europe. In the first investigation, the efficiency of co-firing imported wood pellets in terms of CO{sub 2} savings and related subsidy schemes is analysed. Scenarios show that co-firing biomass is efficient to contribute to the EU energy targets. Though, policy makers could use these instruments more effective when directing sourcing decision towards options with even less environmental impacts. The second analysis explores the influence of statistically derived price risks on total supply chain economics. It is shown that price risks can effect strong fluctuations in the short term, which seriously affect the profitability of individual trade routes. Securing the supply chain is mainly based on individual producer-buyer agreements, personal branch experiences and fast reactions on the subsidy system. Systematic evaluation of supply chains could contribute to a more reliable market and thus foster investment decisions. In the last investigation, the economic and environmental performance of potential torrefaction-based supply chains is assessed. As a result, torrefaction-based supply chains turn out to be a certain alternative to conventional ones. Though, still huge research efforts and industrial demonstration are required to make torrefied biomass a real alternative on the market.

  1. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health.

  2. An Analysis of Contributions and Contributors in Economic Education Research.

    Marlin, James W., Jr.; Durden, Garey C.

    1993-01-01

    Reports on a study of 25 years of the content and contributors in economic education research. Finds that economic education has become a legitimate subfield within economics and has grown from mostly descriptive research to sophisticated mathematical and econometric models. (CFR)

  3. An Analysis of the College's Economic Impact, 1996-2001.

    Martin, Fred

    This economic impact study examines the ways in which Pellissippi State Technical Community College (Tennessee) is a major contributor to the economic base of Knox and Blount Counties. The report is based on a standard model of economic impact modified for community colleges, and it uses conservative income and employment modifiers to determine…

  4. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites.

  5. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  6. Electricity decision-making: New techniques for calculating statewide economic impacts from new power supply and demand-side management programs

    Tegen, Suzanne Isabel Helmholz

    This dissertation introduces new techniques for calculating and comparing statewide economic impacts from new coal, natural gas and wind power plants, as well as from demand-side management programs. The impetus for this work was two-fold. First, reviews of current literature and projects revealed that there was no standard way to estimate statewide economic impacts from new supply- and demand-side electricity options. Second, decision-makers who were interviewed stated that they were overwhelmed with data in general, but also lacked enough specific information about economic development impacts to their states from electricity, to make informed choices. This dissertation includes chapters on electricity decision-making and on economic impacts from supply and demand. The supply chapter compares different electricity options in three states which vary in natural resource content: Arizona, Colorado and Michigan. To account for differing capacity factors, resources are compared on a per-megawatt-hour basis. The calculations of economic impacts from new supply include: materials and labor for construction, operations, maintenance, fuel extraction, fuel transport, as well as property tax, financing and landowner revenues. The demand-side chapter compares residential, commercial and industrial programs in Iowa. Impact calculations include: incremental labor and materials for program planning, installation and operations, as well as sales taxes and electricity saved. Results from supply-side calculations in the three states analyzed indicate that adding new wind power can have a greater impact to a state's economy than adding new gas or coal power due to resource location, taxes and infrastructure. Additionally, demand-side management programs have a higher relative percentage of in-state dollar flow than supply-side solutions, though demand-side programs typically involve fewer MWh and dollars than supply-side generation. Methods for this dissertation include researching

  7. 75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

    2010-09-24

    ... AGENCY 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System) AGENCY... Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop... information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems. CADDIS is based on EPA's Stressor...

  8. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Client-Oriented Volume

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to cr

  9. NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Executive Leaflet

    Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

    2012-01-01

    Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to cr

  10. A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

    Orquin, Jacob L.; Kurzban, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. ...

  11. Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserves to Economic Growth in Emerging Economics

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we analyzed the effect of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves to economic growth in emerging countries. In order to empirical estimates of the impact of foreign exchange reserves to economic growth in emerging countries, were collected annual data on real GDP per capita, share of investment in GDP and population from the database of the International Monetary Fund (IMF WEO) in October 2013, while data from the level of foreign exchange reserves statistics collected fro...

  12. Deterministic economic analysis of feedlot Red Angus young steers: slaughter weights and bonus

    Paulo Santana Pacheco

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The joint analysis of indicators of the investment project is very relevant in making decisions, resulting in more consistent information regarding risk assessment and its confrontation with the possibility of return. This research aimed to evaluate the economic feasibility of Red Angus young steers finished in feedlot, slaughtered at 340, 373, 396 or 430kg with use of various financial indicators, marketed with or without bonus. The purchase of feeder cattle and feeding were variable costs with a higher share in the total cost. In the analysis with bonus, the regression analysis to gross margin, net margin, net present value, benefit:cost index and additional return on investment showed quadratic behavior, with the point of maximum at 406kg (R$ 185.17, 406kg (R$ 161.76 , 393kg (R$ 128.29, 392kg (1.12, 392kg (11.98%, respectively. In the analysis without bonus, gross margin and net margin showed a quadratic response (346kg, with R$ 110.31 and R$ 86.90, respectively, while for the other indicators, there was a linear reduction as an increase in slaughter weight.

  13. Los Alamos National Laboratory Economic Analysis Capability Overview

    Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group

    2016-04-19

    Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed two types of models to compute the economic impact of infrastructure disruptions. FastEcon is a fast running model that estimates first-­order economic impacts of large scale events such as hurricanes and floods and can be used to identify the amount of economic activity that occurs in a specific area. LANL’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model estimates more comprehensive static and dynamic economic impacts of a broader array of events and captures the interactions between sectors and industries when estimating economic impacts.

  14. Economic analysis of atmospheric mercury emission control for coal-fired power plants in China.

    Ancora, Maria Pia; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Shuxiao; Schreifels, Jeremy; Hao, Jiming

    2015-07-01

    Coal combustion and mercury pollution are closely linked, and this relationship is particularly relevant in China, the world's largest coal consumer. This paper begins with a summary of recent China-specific studies on mercury removal by air pollution control technologies and then provides an economic analysis of mercury abatement from these emission control technologies at coal-fired power plants in China. This includes a cost-effectiveness analysis at the enterprise and sector level in China using 2010 as a baseline and projecting out to 2020 and 2030. Of the control technologies evaluated, the most cost-effective is a fabric filter installed upstream of the wet flue gas desulfurization system (FF+WFGD). Halogen injection (HI) is also a cost-effective mercury-specific control strategy, although it has not yet reached commercial maturity. The sector-level analysis shows that 193 tons of mercury was removed in 2010 in China's coal-fired power sector, with annualized mercury emission control costs of 2.7 billion Chinese Yuan. Under a projected 2030 Emission Control (EC) scenario with stringent mercury limits compared to Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the increase of selective catalytic reduction systems (SCR) and the use of HI could contribute to 39 tons of mercury removal at a cost of 3.8 billion CNY. The economic analysis presented in this paper offers insights on air pollution control technologies and practices for enhancing atmospheric mercury control that can aid decision-making in policy design and private-sector investments.

  15. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  16. The neural mechanisms of affect infusion in social economic decision-making: a mediating role of the anterior insula.

    Harlé, Katia M; Chang, Luke J; van 't Wout, Mascha; Sanfey, Alan G

    2012-05-15

    Though emotions have been shown to have sometimes dramatic effects on decision-making, the neural mechanisms mediating these biases are relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated how incidental affect (i.e. emotional states unrelated to the decision at hand) may influence decisions, and how these biases are implemented in the brain. Nineteen adult participants made decisions which involved accepting or rejecting monetary offers from others in an Ultimatum Game while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Prior to each set of decisions, participants watched a short video clip aimed at inducing either a sad or neutral emotional state. Results demonstrated that, as expected, sad participants rejected more unfair offers than those in the neutral condition. Neuroimaging analyses revealed that receiving unfair offers while in a sad mood elicited activity in brain areas related to aversive emotional states and somatosensory integration (anterior insula) and to cognitive conflict (anterior cingulate cortex). Sad participants also showed a diminished sensitivity in neural regions associated with reward processing (ventral striatum). Importantly, insular activation uniquely mediated the relationship between sadness and decision bias. This study is the first to reveal how subtle mood states can be integrated at the neural level to influence decision-making.

  17. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  18. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  19. Description-based and experience-based decisions: individual analysis

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyze behavior in two basic classes of decision tasks: description-based and experience-based. In particular, we compare the prediction power of a number of decision learning models in both kinds of tasks. Unlike most previous studies, we focus on individual, rather than aggregate, behavioral characteristics. We carry out an experiment involving a battery of both description- and experience-based choices between two mixed binary prospects made by each of the participants, and employ a number of formal models for explaining and predicting participants' choices: Prospect theory (PT (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Expectancy-Valence model (EVL (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002; and three combinations of these well-established models. We document that the PT and the EVL models are best for predicting people's decisions in description- and experience-based tasks, respectively, which is not surprising as these two models are designed specially for these kinds of tasks. Furthermore, we find that models involving linear weighting of gains and losses perform better in both kinds of tasks, from the point of view of generalizability and individual parameter consistency. We therefore, conclude that, overall, when both prospects are mixed, the assumption of diminishing sensitivity does not improve models' prediction power for individual decision-makers. Finally, for some of the models' parameters, we document consistency at the individual level between description- and experience-based tasks.

  20. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…