Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouden, den M.

1996-01-01

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

New Research Perspectives in the Emerging Field of Computational Intelligence to Economic Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vasile MAZILESCU

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Computational Intelligence (CI is a new development paradigm of intelligentsystems which has resulted from a synergy between fuzzy sets, artificial neuralnetworks, evolutionary computation, machine learning, etc., broadeningcomputer science, physics, economics, engineering, mathematics, statistics. It isimperative to know why these tools can be potentially relevant and effective toeconomic and financial modeling. This paper presents, after a synergic newparadigm of intelligent systems, as a practical case study the fuzzy and temporalproperties of knowledge formalism embedded in an Intelligent Control System(ICS, based on FT-algorithm. We are not dealing high with level reasoningmethods, because we think that real-time problems can only be solved by ratherlow-level reasoning. Most of the overall run-time of fuzzy expert systems isused in the match phase. To achieve a fast reasoning the number of fuzzy setoperations must be reduced. For this, we use a fuzzy compiled structure ofknowledge, like Rete, because it is required for real-time responses. Solving thematch-time predictability problem would allow us to built much more powerfulreasoning techniques.

Energy-economic policy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Sanstad, Alan H.

2018-01-01

Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

Computer model for economic study of unbleached kraft paperboard production

Science.gov (United States)

Peter J. Ince

1984-01-01

Unbleached kraft paperboard is produced from wood fiber in an industrial papermaking process. A highly specific and detailed model of the process is presented. The model is also presented as a working computer program. A user of the computer program will provide data on physical parameters of the process and on prices of material inputs and outputs. The program is then...

Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2018-01-01

textabstractThe paper provides a review of the literature that connects Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology, and discusses some research that is related to the seven disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent

Big data, computational science, economics, finance, marketing, management, and psychology: connections

OpenAIRE

Chang, Chia-Lin; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

2018-01-01

textabstractThe paper provides a review of the literature that connects Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology, and discusses some research that is related to the seven disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent econometric and statistical models to estimate the parameters in the associated models, as well as conduct simulation to examine whether the estimators in their theories on estimation and hypothesis testin...

Computational investigation of fluid flow and heat transfer of an economizer by porous medium approach

Science.gov (United States)

Babu, C. Rajesh; Kumar, P.; Rajamohan, G.

2017-07-01

Computation of fluid flow and heat transfer in an economizer is simulated by a porous medium approach, with plain tubes having a horizontal in-line arrangement and cross flow arrangement in a coal-fired thermal power plant. The economizer is a thermal mechanical device that captures waste heat from the thermal exhaust flue gasses through heat transfer surfaces to preheat boiler feed water. In order to evaluate the fluid flow and heat transfer on tubes, a numerical analysis on heat transfer performance is carried out on an 110 t/h MCR (Maximum continuous rating) boiler unit. In this study, thermal performance is investigated using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation using ANSYS FLUENT. The fouling factor ε and the overall heat transfer coefficient ψ are employed to evaluate the fluid flow and heat transfer. The model demands significant computational details for geometric modeling, grid generation, and numerical calculations to evaluate the thermal performance of an economizer. The simulation results show that the overall heat transfer coefficient 37.76 W/(m2K) and economizer coil side pressure drop of 0.2 (kg/cm2) are found to be conformity within the tolerable limits when compared with existing industrial economizer data.

Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

OpenAIRE

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

Economic Model For a Return on Investment Analysis of United States Government High Performance Computing (HPC) Research and Development (R & D) Investment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joseph, Earl C. [IDC Research Inc., Framingham, MA (United States); Conway, Steve [IDC Research Inc., Framingham, MA (United States); Dekate, Chirag [IDC Research Inc., Framingham, MA (United States)

2013-09-30

This study investigated how high-performance computing (HPC) investments can improve economic success and increase scientific innovation. This research focused on the common good and provided uses for DOE, other government agencies, industry, and academia. The study created two unique economic models and an innovation index: 1 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in economic advancements in the form of ROI in revenue (GDP), profits (and cost savings), and jobs. 2 A macroeconomic model that depicts the way HPC investments result in basic and applied innovations, looking at variations by sector, industry, country, and organization size. A new innovation index that provides a means of measuring and comparing innovation levels. Key findings of the pilot study include: IDC collected the required data across a broad set of organizations, with enough detail to create these models and the innovation index. The research also developed an expansive list of HPC success stories.

Nuclear power investment risk economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

1985-12-01

This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2017-08-07

Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying the event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.

Evaluation of trade influence on economic growth rate by computational intelligence approach

Science.gov (United States)

Sokolov-Mladenović, Svetlana; Milovančević, Milos; Mladenović, Igor

2017-01-01

In this study was analyzed the influence of trade parameters on the economic growth forecasting accuracy. Computational intelligence method was used for the analyzing since the method can handle highly nonlinear data. It is known that the economic growth could be modeled based on the different trade parameters. In this study five input parameters were considered. These input parameters were: trade in services, exports of goods and services, imports of goods and services, trade and merchandise trade. All these parameters were calculated as added percentages in gross domestic product (GDP). The main goal was to select which parameters are the most impactful on the economic growth percentage. GDP was used as economic growth indicator. Results show that the imports of goods and services has the highest influence on the economic growth forecasting accuracy.

Introduction to computation and modeling for differential equations

CERN Document Server

Edsberg, Lennart

2008-01-01

An introduction to scientific computing for differential equationsIntroduction to Computation and Modeling for Differential Equations provides a unified and integrated view of numerical analysis, mathematical modeling in applications, and programming to solve differential equations, which is essential in problem-solving across many disciplines, such as engineering, physics, and economics. This book successfully introduces readers to the subject through a unique ""Five-M"" approach: Modeling, Mathematics, Methods, MATLAB, and Multiphysics. This approach facilitates a thorough understanding of h

Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

2001-01-01

Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

The Use of Computer Simulation Gaming in Teaching Broadcast Economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Mancuso, Louis C.

The purpose of this study was to develop a broadcast economic computer simulation and to ascertain how a lecture-computer simulation game compared as a teaching method with a more traditional lecture and case study instructional methods. In each of three sections of a broadcast economics course, a different teaching methodology was employed: (1)…

Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

1980-09-01

This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

Economic modeling using evolutionary algorithms : the effect of binary encoding of strategies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Waltman, L.R.; Eck, van N.J.; Dekker, Rommert; Kaymak, U.

2011-01-01

We are concerned with evolutionary algorithms that are employed for economic modeling purposes. We focus in particular on evolutionary algorithms that use a binary encoding of strategies. These algorithms, commonly referred to as genetic algorithms, are popular in agent-based computational economics

Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wadim Strielkowski

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

Studies and research concerning BNFP. Identification and simplified modeling of economically important radwaste variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebel, P.E.; Godfrey, W.L.; Henry, J.L.; Postles, R.L.

1983-09-01

An extensive computer model describing the mass balance and economic characteristics of radioactive waste disposal systems was exercised in a series of runs designed using linear statistical methods. The most economically important variables were identified, their behavior characterized, and a simplified computer model prepared which runs on desk-top minicomputers. This simplified model allows the investigation of the effects of the seven most significant variables in each of four waste areas: Liquid Waste Storage, Liquid Waste Solidification, General Process Trash Handling, and Hulls Handling. 8 references, 1 figure, 12 tables

Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Lin Chang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The paper provides a review of the literature that connects Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology, and discusses research issues that are related to the various disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent econometric and statistical models to estimate the parameters in the associated models, as well as conduct simulation to examine whether the estimators in their theories on estimation and hypothesis testing have good size and high power. Thereafter, academics and practitioners could apply theory to analyse some interesting issues in the seven disciplines and cognate areas.

Practical Validation of Economic Efficiency Modelling Method for Multi-Boiler Heating System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejs Jurenoks

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In up-to-date conditions information technology is frequently associated with the modelling process, using computer technology as well as information networks. Statistical modelling is one of the most widespread methods of research of economic systems. The selection of methods of modelling of the economic systems depends on a great number of conditions of the researched system. Modelling is frequently associated with the factor of uncertainty (or risk, who’s description goes outside the confines of the traditional statistical modelling, which, in its turn, complicates the modelling which, in its turn, complicates the modelling process. This article describes the modelling process of assessing the economic efficiency of a multi-boiler adaptive heating system in real-time systems which allows for dynamic change in the operation scenarios of system service installations while enhancing the economic efficiency of the system in consideration.

Macro-economic environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, M.

1993-01-01

In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

1991-01-01

The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

2013-10-01

Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jess Bier

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

CERN Document Server

Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

2017-01-01

This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

1986-01-01

Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

MULTIREGION: a simulation-forecasting model of BEA economic area population and employment. [Bureau of Economic Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, R.J.; Westley, G.W.; Herzog, H.W. Jr.; Kerley, C.R.; Bjornstad, D.J.; Vogt, D.P.; Bray, L.G.; Grady, S.T.; Nakosteen, R.A.

1977-10-01

This report documents the development of MULTIREGION, a computer model of regional and interregional socio-economic development. The MULTIREGION model interprets the economy of each BEA economic area as a labor market, measures all activity in terms of people as members of the population (labor supply) or as employees (labor demand), and simultaneously simulates or forecasts the demands and supplies of labor in all BEA economic areas at five-year intervals. In general the outputs of MULTIREGION are intended to resemble those of the Water Resource Council's OBERS projections and to be put to similar planning and analysis purposes. This report has been written at two levels to serve the needs of multiple audiences. The body of the report serves as a fairly nontechnical overview of the entire MULTIREGION project; a series of technical appendixes provide detailed descriptions of the background empirical studies of births, deaths, migration, labor force participation, natural resource employment, manufacturing employment location, and local service employment used to construct the model.

Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. S. N. Perera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

Rediscovering the Economics of Keynes in an Agent-Based Computational Setting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruun, Charlotte

2016-01-01

The aim of this paper is to use agent-based computational economics to explore the economic thinking of Keynes. Taking his starting point at the macroeconomic level, Keynes argued that economic systems are characterized by fundamental uncertainty — an uncertainty that makes rule-based behavior...

A model for calculating the optimal replacement interval of computer systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujii, Minoru; Asai, Kiyoshi

1981-08-01

A mathematical model for calculating the optimal replacement interval of computer systems is described. This model is made to estimate the best economical interval of computer replacement when computing demand, cost and performance of computer, etc. are known. The computing demand is assumed to monotonously increase every year. Four kinds of models are described. In the model 1, a computer system is represented by only a central processing unit (CPU) and all the computing demand is to be processed on the present computer until the next replacement. On the other hand in the model 2, the excessive demand is admitted and may be transferred to other computing center and processed costly there. In the model 3, the computer system is represented by a CPU, memories (MEM) and input/output devices (I/O) and it must process all the demand. Model 4 is same as model 3, but the excessive demand is admitted to be processed in other center. (1) Computing demand at the JAERI, (2) conformity of Grosch's law for the recent computers, (3) replacement cost of computer systems, etc. are also described. (author)

A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

2000-01-01

The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

Interactive model to assess economics of anaerobic digestion of the farm

Science.gov (United States)

1981-08-01

An interactive computer model, to provide economic assessment for on the farm anaerobic digestion systems was designed. The model is accessed as part of the MASEC Models Library. It consists of two phases: engineering analysis and economic analysis. User inputs are stored in a data base and may be retained for future use. Model outputs include a recap of user inputs, calculations for gas production, digester heat requirements, system revenues, yearly cash flow, and a graph of the net present value of the investment. The model is generalized so that nonfarm applications may also be analyzed. The program will work equally well for various digester designs such as continuously stirred reactors, plug flow systems, and fluidized bed columns.

HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-02-01

This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivona Milić Beran

2015-10-01

Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

Computer modelling for ecosystem service assessment: Chapter 4.4

Science.gov (United States)

Dunford, Robert; Harrison, Paula; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

2017-01-01

Computer models are simplified representations of the environment that allow biophysical, ecological, and/or socio-economic characteristics to be quantified and explored. Modelling approaches differ from mapping approaches (Chapter 5) as (i) they are not forcibly spatial (although many models do produce spatial outputs); (ii) they focus on understanding and quantifying the interactions between different components of social and/or environmental systems and (iii)

Energetic-economic dynamic computational analysis of plants with small capacity - Gera model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Storfer, A.F.; Demanboro, A.C. de; Campello, C.A.G.B.

1990-01-01

A methodology and mathematical model for energy and economic analysis of hydroelectric power plants with low and medium capacity are presented. This methodology will be used for isolated or integrated hydroelectric power plants, including plants that part of their produced energy will go to the site market and part will go to regional electric system. (author)

Quantitative Analysis of Intra Urban Growth Modeling using socio economic agents by combining cellular automata model with agent based model

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, V. K.; Jha, A. K.; Gupta, K.; Srivastav, S. K.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that there is a significant improvement in the urban land use dynamics through modeling at finer spatial resolutions. Geo-computational models such as cellular automata and agent based model have given evident proof regarding the quantification of the urban growth pattern with urban boundary. In recent studies, socio- economic factors such as demography, education rate, household density, parcel price of the current year, distance to road, school, hospital, commercial centers and police station are considered to the major factors influencing the Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern of the city. These factors have unidirectional approach to land use pattern which makes it difficult to analyze the spatial aspects of model results both quantitatively and qualitatively. In this study, cellular automata model is combined with generic model known as Agent Based Model to evaluate the impact of socio economic factors on land use pattern. For this purpose, Dehradun an Indian city is selected as a case study. Socio economic factors were collected from field survey, Census of India, Directorate of economic census, Uttarakhand, India. A 3X3 simulating window is used to consider the impact on LULC. Cellular automata model results are examined for the identification of hot spot areas within the urban area and agent based model will be using logistic based regression approach where it will identify the correlation between each factor on LULC and classify the available area into low density, medium density, high density residential or commercial area. In the modeling phase, transition rule, neighborhood effect, cell change factors are used to improve the representation of built-up classes. Significant improvement is observed in the built-up classes from 84 % to 89 %. However after incorporating agent based model with cellular automata model the accuracy improved from 89 % to 94 % in 3 classes of urban i.e. low density, medium density and commercial classes

Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Kit N

2010-05-01

To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

Real-time economic optimization for a fermentation process using Model Predictive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Lars Norbert; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2014-01-01

Fermentation is a widely used process in production of many foods, beverages, and pharmaceuticals. The main goal of the control system is to maximize profit of the fermentation process, and thus this is also the main goal of this paper. We present a simple dynamic model for a fermentation process...... and demonstrate its usefulness in economic optimization. The model is formulated as an index-1 differential algebraic equation (DAE), which guarantees conservation of mass and energy in discrete form. The optimization is based on recent advances within Economic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (E......-NMPC), and also utilizes the index-1 DAE model. The E-NMPC uses the single-shooting method and the adjoint method for computation of the optimization gradients. The process constraints are relaxed to soft-constraints on the outputs. Finally we derive the analytical solution to the economic optimization problem...

AJAN TABANLI MODELLEME VE HESAPLAMALI İKTİSAT - AGENT-BASED MODELLING AND COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emrah KELEŞ

2014-07-01

Full Text Available ÖzetRasyonellik ve homojenlik varsayımları ile iktisadi ajanlar arasındaki etkileşimi göz ardı eden temsiliajan yaklaşımı, dinamik stokastik genel denge modellerine dayanan yerleşik iktisada duyulan güveninazalmasına yol açmıştır. 1990’ların sonlarından itibaren ajan tabanlı hesaplamalı yaklaşım finansal iktisat,endüstriyel organizasyon, makro iktisat, politik iktisat ve iktiadi ağ oluşumu başta olmak üzere sosyalbilimlerde yaygınlaşmaya başlamıştır. Son olarak 2008 küresel finansal kriz yerleşik, iktisadın dahayüksek sesle tartışılmasına ve ajan tabanlı yaklaşımın daha çok benimsenmesine neden olmuştur. Bu yeniyaklaşım araştırmacılara pasif haldeki fiziksel varlıklardan durumları, inanışları ve davranış kuralları olanaktif karar alıcılara kadar çeşitli ajanların bulunduğu yapay bir dünya kurmalarına imkân vermektedir.Bu yapay dünyalarda ajanların birbirleriyle ya da çevreleriyle etkileşimi onların adaptif (uyarlanabilirolmasına ve kompleks adaptif bir sistem meydana getirmelerine izin vermektedir. Bu çalışmada, ajantabanlı yaklaşımın temel unsurlarının incelenmesi ve DSGE modellerine göre üstünlüklerinin gösterilmesiamaçlanmıştır.AbstractAssumptions of rationality and homogeneity, and framework of representative agent that rule out interactionsbetween agents have led to a decline in confidence to mainstream economics based on dynamicstochastic equilibrium models. Starting from late 1990s, agent-based computational approach has becomeincreasingly popular in social sciences, especially in financial economics, industrial organization, macroeconomics,political economy, and economic network formation. Finally, 2008 global financial crisis hascaused mainstream to be argued loudly and agent-based approach to be adopted more. This new approachenables researchers to construct artificial worlds where various agents ranging from passive entities to active

AJAN TABANLI MODELLEME VE HESAPLAMALI İKTİSAT - AGENT-BASED MODELLING AND COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emrah KELEŞ

2014-08-01

Full Text Available ÖzetRasyonellik ve homojenlik varsayımları ile iktisadi ajanlar arasındaki etkileşimi göz ardı eden temsiliajan yaklaşımı, dinamik stokastik genel denge modellerine dayanan yerleşik iktisada duyulan güveninazalmasına yol açmıştır. 1990’ların sonlarından itibaren ajan tabanlı hesaplamalı yaklaşım finansal iktisat,endüstriyel organizasyon, makro iktisat, politik iktisat ve iktiadi ağ oluşumu başta olmak üzere sosyalbilimlerde yaygınlaşmaya başlamıştır. Son olarak 2008 küresel finansal kriz yerleşik, iktisadın dahayüksek sesle tartışılmasına ve ajan tabanlı yaklaşımın daha çok benimsenmesine neden olmuştur. Bu yeniyaklaşım araştırmacılara pasif haldeki fiziksel varlıklardan durumları, inanışları ve davranış kuralları olanaktif karar alıcılara kadar çeşitli ajanların bulunduğu yapay bir dünya kurmalarına imkân vermektedir.Bu yapay dünyalarda ajanların birbirleriyle ya da çevreleriyle etkileşimi onların adaptif (uyarlanabilirolmasına ve kompleks adaptif bir sistem meydana getirmelerine izin vermektedir. Bu çalışmada, ajantabanlı yaklaşımın temel unsurlarının incelenmesi ve DSGE modellerine göre üstünlüklerinin gösterilmesiamaçlanmıştır.AbstractAssumptions of rationality and homogeneity, and framework of representative agent that rule out interactionsbetween agents have led to a decline in confidence to mainstream economics based on dynamicstochastic equilibrium models. Starting from late 1990s, agent-based computational approach has becomeincreasingly popular in social sciences, especially in financial economics, industrial organization, macroeconomics,political economy, and economic network formation. Finally, 2008 global financial crisis hascaused mainstream to be argued loudly and agent-based approach to be adopted more. This new approachenables researchers to construct artificial worlds where various agents ranging from passive entities to active

Estimation of the transboundary economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kahsay, T.N.; Kuik, O.J.; Brouwer, R.; van der Zaag, P.

2015-01-01

Employing a multi-region multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework, this study estimates the direct and indirect economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Eastern Nile economies. The study contributes to the existing literature by evaluating the

Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

2014-01-01

The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

Parallel computing in enterprise modeling.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldsby, Michael E.; Armstrong, Robert C.; Shneider, Max S.; Vanderveen, Keith; Ray, Jaideep; Heath, Zach; Allan, Benjamin A.

2008-08-01

This report presents the results of our efforts to apply high-performance computing to entity-based simulations with a multi-use plugin for parallel computing. We use the term 'Entity-based simulation' to describe a class of simulation which includes both discrete event simulation and agent based simulation. What simulations of this class share, and what differs from more traditional models, is that the result sought is emergent from a large number of contributing entities. Logistic, economic and social simulations are members of this class where things or people are organized or self-organize to produce a solution. Entity-based problems never have an a priori ergodic principle that will greatly simplify calculations. Because the results of entity-based simulations can only be realized at scale, scalable computing is de rigueur for large problems. Having said that, the absence of a spatial organizing principal makes the decomposition of the problem onto processors problematic. In addition, practitioners in this domain commonly use the Java programming language which presents its own problems in a high-performance setting. The plugin we have developed, called the Parallel Particle Data Model, overcomes both of these obstacles and is now being used by two Sandia frameworks: the Decision Analysis Center, and the Seldon social simulation facility. While the ability to engage U.S.-sized problems is now available to the Decision Analysis Center, this plugin is central to the success of Seldon. Because Seldon relies on computationally intensive cognitive sub-models, this work is necessary to achieve the scale necessary for realistic results. With the recent upheavals in the financial markets, and the inscrutability of terrorist activity, this simulation domain will likely need a capability with ever greater fidelity. High-performance computing will play an important part in enabling that greater fidelity.

Pharmaceutical industry and trade liberalization using computable general equilibrium model.

Science.gov (United States)

Barouni, M; Ghaderi, H; Banouei, Aa

2012-01-01

Computable general equilibrium models are known as a powerful instrument in economic analyses and widely have been used in order to evaluate trade liberalization effects. The purpose of this study was to provide the impacts of trade openness on pharmaceutical industry using CGE model. Using a computable general equilibrium model in this study, the effects of decrease in tariffs as a symbol of trade liberalization on key variables of Iranian pharmaceutical products were studied. Simulation was performed via two scenarios in this study. The first scenario was the effect of decrease in tariffs of pharmaceutical products as 10, 30, 50, and 100 on key drug variables, and the second was the effect of decrease in other sectors except pharmaceutical products on vital and economic variables of pharmaceutical products. The required data were obtained and the model parameters were calibrated according to the social accounting matrix of Iran in 2006. The results associated with simulation demonstrated that the first scenario has increased import, export, drug supply to markets and household consumption, while import, export, supply of product to market, and household consumption of pharmaceutical products would averagely decrease in the second scenario. Ultimately, society welfare would improve in all scenarios. We presents and synthesizes the CGE model which could be used to analyze trade liberalization policy issue in developing countries (like Iran), and thus provides information that policymakers can use to improve the pharmacy economics.

Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-17

This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2008-01-01

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Modeling and simulation the computer science of illusion

CERN Document Server

Raczynski, Stanislaw

2006-01-01

Simulation is the art of using tools - physical or conceptual models, or computer hardware and software, to attempt to create the illusion of reality. The discipline has in recent years expanded to include the modelling of systems that rely on human factors and therefore possess a large proportion of uncertainty, such as social, economic or commercial systems. These new applications make the discipline of modelling and simulation a field of dynamic growth and new research. Stanislaw Raczynski outlines the considerable and promising research that is being conducted to counter the problems of

On the need and use of models to explore the role of economic confidence:a survey.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Paez, Paul J. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Hand, Michael S. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM)

2005-04-01

Empirical studies suggest that consumption is more sensitive to current income than suggested under the permanent income hypothesis, which raises questions regarding expectations for future income, risk aversion, and the role of economic confidence measures. This report surveys a body of fundamental economic literature as well as burgeoning computational modeling methods to support efforts to better anticipate cascading economic responses to terrorist threats and attacks. This is a three part survey to support the incorporation of models of economic confidence into agent-based microeconomic simulations. We first review broad underlying economic principles related to this topic. We then review the economic principle of confidence and related empirical studies. Finally, we provide a brief survey of efforts and publications related to agent-based economic simulation.

Los Alamos National Laboratory Economic Analysis Capability Overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group; Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Information Systems and Modeling Group

2016-04-19

Los Alamos National Laboratory has developed two types of models to compute the economic impact of infrastructure disruptions. FastEcon is a fast running model that estimates first-­order economic impacts of large scale events such as hurricanes and floods and can be used to identify the amount of economic activity that occurs in a specific area. LANL’s Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model estimates more comprehensive static and dynamic economic impacts of a broader array of events and captures the interactions between sectors and industries when estimating economic impacts.

Children, computer exposure and musculoskeletal outcomes: the development of pathway models for school and home computer-related musculoskeletal outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Harris, Courtenay; Straker, Leon; Pollock, Clare; Smith, Anne

2015-01-01

Children's computer use is rapidly growing, together with reports of related musculoskeletal outcomes. Models and theories of adult-related risk factors demonstrate multivariate risk factors associated with computer use. Children's use of computers is different from adult's computer use at work. This study developed and tested a child-specific model demonstrating multivariate relationships between musculoskeletal outcomes, computer exposure and child factors. Using pathway modelling, factors such as gender, age, television exposure, computer anxiety, sustained attention (flow), socio-economic status and somatic complaints (headache and stomach pain) were found to have effects on children's reports of musculoskeletal symptoms. The potential for children's computer exposure to follow a dose-response relationship was also evident. Developing a child-related model can assist in understanding risk factors for children's computer use and support the development of recommendations to encourage children to use this valuable resource in educational, recreational and communication environments in a safe and productive manner. Computer use is an important part of children's school and home life. Application of this developed model, that encapsulates related risk factors, enables practitioners, researchers, teachers and parents to develop strategies that assist young people to use information technology for school, home and leisure in a safe and productive manner.

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandrik, A.M.

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

Computational model for superconducting toroidal-field magnets for a tokamak reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, L.R.; Abdou, M.A.

1978-01-01

A computational model for predicting the performance characteristics and cost of superconducting toroidal-field (TF) magnets in tokamak reactors is presented. The model can be used to compare the technical and economic merits of different approaches to the design of TF magnets for a reactor system. The model has been integrated into the ANL Systems Analysis Program. Samples of results obtainable with the model are presented

The Potential Value of Clostridium difficile Vaccine: An Economic Computer Simulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Bruce Y.; Popovich, Michael J.; Tian, Ye; Bailey, Rachel R.; Ufberg, Paul J.; Wiringa, Ann E.; Muder, Robert R.

2010-01-01

Efforts are currently underway to develop a vaccine against Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). We developed two decision analytic Monte Carlo computer simulation models: (1) an Initial Prevention Model depicting the decision whether to administer C. difficile vaccine to patients at-risk for CDI and (2) a Recurrence Prevention Model depicting the decision whether to administer C. difficile vaccine to prevent CDI recurrence. Our results suggest that a C. difficile vaccine could be cost-effective over a wide range of C. difficile risk, vaccine costs, and vaccine efficacies especially when being used post-CDI treatment to prevent recurrent disease. PMID:20541582

Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

2012-01-01

We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

A mean-field game economic growth model

KAUST Repository

Gomes, Diogo A.

2016-08-05

Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks to maximize his/her utility by taking into account statistical data about the whole population. The individual actions drive the evolution of the players, and a market-clearing condition determines the relative price of capital and consumer goods. We study the existence and uniqueness of optimal strategies of the agents and develop numerical methods to compute these strategies and the equilibrium price.

Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: Status quo and prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas

2006-01-01

Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) of economic, environmental, and social effects triggered by governmental policies has become a central requirement for policy design. The three dimensions of SIA are inherently intertwined and subject to trade-offs. Quantification of trade-offs for policy decision support requires numerical models in order to assess systematically the interference of complex interacting forces that affect economic performance, environmental quality, and social conditions. This paper investigates the use of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models for measuring the impacts of policy interference on policy-relevant economic, environmental, and social (institutional) indicators. We find that operational CGE models used for energy-economy-environment (E3) analyses have a good coverage of central economic indicators. Environmental indicators such as energy-related emissions with direct links to economic activities are widely covered, whereas indicators with complex natural science background such as water stress or biodiversity loss are hardly represented. Social indicators stand out for very weak coverage, mainly because they are vaguely defined or incommensurable. Our analysis identifies prospects for future modeling in the field of integrated assessment that link standard E3-CGE-models to themespecific complementary models with environmental and social focus. (author)

Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koks, E.E.; Carrera, L.; Jonkeren, O.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Husby, T.G.; Thissen, M.; Standardi, G.; Mysiak, J.

2016-01-01

A variety of models have been applied to assess the economic losses of disasters, of which the most common ones are input-output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. In addition, an increasing number of scholars have developed hybrid approaches: one that combines both or either of

USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia Madalina Orac

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

Network models in economics and finance

CERN Document Server

Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

2014-01-01

Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

Economic models for battery energy storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

1990-01-01

While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

Technical-economic modelling of an aluminium high pressure die casting system for automotive parts fabrication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faura, F.

1997-01-01

In the present paper a technical-economic model for an aluminium high pressure die casting system has been developed. In order to obtain the necessary data for correlations utilized by the model, has been analyzed the production systems of companies that use these processes. This has allowed to determine the most important technological variables that affect to the economical aspect of the process. A computer application has been developed which allows to explore easily the influence of different system parameters. (Author) 12 refs

Models of Economic Analysis

OpenAIRE

Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

2013-01-01

The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

Computational neurogenetic modeling

CERN Document Server

Benuskova, Lubica

2010-01-01

Computational Neurogenetic Modeling is a student text, introducing the scope and problems of a new scientific discipline - Computational Neurogenetic Modeling (CNGM). CNGM is concerned with the study and development of dynamic neuronal models for modeling brain functions with respect to genes and dynamic interactions between genes. These include neural network models and their integration with gene network models. This new area brings together knowledge from various scientific disciplines, such as computer and information science, neuroscience and cognitive science, genetics and molecular biol

Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

2000-01-01

Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

Natural Computing in Computational Finance Volume 4

CERN Document Server

O’Neill, Michael; Maringer, Dietmar

2012-01-01

This book follows on from Natural Computing in Computational Finance  Volumes I, II and III.   As in the previous volumes of this series, the  book consists of a series of  chapters each of  which was selected following a rigorous, peer-reviewed, selection process.  The chapters illustrate the application of a range of cutting-edge natural  computing and agent-based methodologies in computational finance and economics.  The applications explored include  option model calibration, financial trend reversal detection, enhanced indexation, algorithmic trading,  corporate payout determination and agent-based modeling of liquidity costs, and trade strategy adaptation.  While describing cutting edge applications, the chapters are  written so that they are accessible to a wide audience. Hence, they should be of interest  to academics, students and practitioners in the fields of computational finance and  economics.  

Developments in modelling the economic impact of Off-site accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Faude, D.

1991-01-01

Models for assessing the economic consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity have application both in accident consequence codes and in decision aiding computer systems for use in emergency response. Such models may be applied in emergency planning, and studies in connection with the siting, design and licensing of nuclear facilities. Several models for predicting economic impact have been developed, in Europe and the US, and these are reviewed. A new model, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site), has been developed under the CEC MARIA programme and the features of the model are summarised. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. COCO-1 includes the cost of countermeasures, namely evacuation, relocation, sheltering, food restrictions and decontamination, and also the cost of health effects in the exposed population. The primary quantity used in COCO-1 to measure the economic value of land subject to restrictions on usage is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examples of default data included in the model are presented, as are the results of an illustrative application. The limitations of COCO-1 are discussed, and areas where further data are needed are identified

Economic Literacy Indicators at the Department of Computer Education & Instructional Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sevgi GEREK

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Developments in technology and communication in the 21st century have led to increased expectations from individuals. One of these expectation areas is literacy. As a requirement of the information age, it can be said that the economic literacy is one of the most important areas of literacy. Economic literacy can be defined in terms of ability to revise the alternatives for interpreting economic problems and finding solutions to these problems, to define the cost and profits, to investigate the effects of changes in economic conditions and in public policies, to gather and organize economy-related data and to balance the profits and costs. One of the tools that affect the life can be said economic literacy but it is a neglected area in most higher education programs. In this study, Computer Education and Instructional Technology program courses were examined within the framework of economic literacy indicators

Computational Modeling | Bioenergy | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

cell walls and are the source of biofuels and biomaterials. Our modeling investigates their properties . Quantum Mechanical Models NREL studies chemical and electronic properties and processes to reduce barriers Computational Modeling Computational Modeling NREL uses computational modeling to increase the

HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A.M. Gandrik

2012-01-01

The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

The mineral sector and economic development in Ghana: A computable general equilibrium analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Addy, Samuel N.

A computable general equilibrium model (CGE) model is formulated for conducting mineral policy analysis in the context of national economic development for Ghana. The model, called GHANAMIN, places strong emphasis on production, trade, and investment. It can be used to examine both micro and macro economic impacts of policies associated with mineral investment, taxation, and terms of trade changes, as well as mineral sector performance impacts due to technological change or the discovery of new deposits. Its economywide structure enables the study of broader development policy with a focus on individual or multiple sectors, simultaneously. After going through a period of contraction for about two decades, mining in Ghana has rebounded significantly and is currently the main foreign exchange earner. Gold alone contributed 44.7 percent of 1994 total export earnings. GHANAMIN is used to investigate the economywide impacts of mineral tax policies, world market mineral prices changes, mining investment, and increased mineral exports. It is also used for identifying key sectors for economic development. Various simulations were undertaken with the following results: Recently implemented mineral tax policies are welfare increasing, but have an accompanying decrease in the output of other export sectors. World mineral price rises stimulate an increase in real GDP; however, this increase is less than real GDP decreases associated with price declines. Investment in the non-gold mining sector increases real GDP more than investment in gold mining, because of the former's stronger linkages to the rest of the economy. Increased mineral exports are very beneficial to the overall economy. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in mining increases welfare more so than domestic capital, which is very limited. Mining investment and the increased mineral exports since 1986 have contributed significantly to the country's economic recovery, with gold mining accounting for 95 percent of the

Computational Intelligence, Cyber Security and Computational Models

CERN Document Server

Anitha, R; Lekshmi, R; Kumar, M; Bonato, Anthony; Graña, Manuel

2014-01-01

This book contains cutting-edge research material presented by researchers, engineers, developers, and practitioners from academia and industry at the International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Cyber Security and Computational Models (ICC3) organized by PSG College of Technology, Coimbatore, India during December 19–21, 2013. The materials in the book include theory and applications for design, analysis, and modeling of computational intelligence and security. The book will be useful material for students, researchers, professionals, and academicians. It will help in understanding current research trends and findings and future scope of research in computational intelligence, cyber security, and computational models.

Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models.

Science.gov (United States)

Sornette, Didier

2014-06-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics--from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the 'Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis' to reconcile the pervasive presence of 'noise traders' with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

The Need of a New Economic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandru Cătălin POPA

2012-02-01

Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Rivera, Michael K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)

2014-04-01

This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

ERWIN2: User's manual for a computer model to calculate the economic efficiency of wind energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Wees, F.G.H.

1992-01-01

During the last few years the Business Unit ESC-Energy Studies of the Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (ECN) developed calculation programs to determine the economic efficiency of energy technologies, which programs support several studies for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. All these programs form the so-called BRET programs. One of these programs is ERWIN (Economische Rentabiliteit WINdenergiesystemen or in English: Economic Efficiency of Wind Energy Systems) of which an updated manual (ERWIN2) is presented in this report. An outline is given of the possibilities and limitations to carry out calculations with the model

Economic communication model set

Science.gov (United States)

Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

2017-06-01

This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Building bridges between perceptual and economic decision-making: neural and computational mechanisms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher eSummerfield

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Investigation into the neural and computational bases of decision-making has proceeded in two parallel but distinct streams. Perceptual decision making (PDM is concerned with how observers detect, discriminate and categorise noisy sensory information. Economic decision making (EDM explores how options are selected on the basis of their reinforcement history. Traditionally, the subfields of PDM and EDM have employed different paradigms, proposed different mechanistic models, explored different brain regions, disagreed about whether decisions approach optimality. Nevertheless, we argue that there is a common framework for understanding decisions made in both domains, under which an agent has to combine sensory information (what is the stimulus with value information (what is it worth. We review computational models of the decision process typically used in PDM, based around the idea that decisions involve a serial integration of evidence, and assess their applicability to decisions between good and gambles. Subsequently, we consider the contribution of three key brain regions – the parietal cortex, the basal ganglia, and the orbitofrontal cortex – to perceptual and economic decision-making, with a focus on the mechanisms by which sensory and reward information are integrated during choice. We find that although the parietal cortex is often implicated in the integration of sensory evidence, there is evidence for its role in encoding the expected value of a decision. Similarly, although much research has emphasised the role of the striatum and orbitofrontal cortex in value-guided choices, they may play an important role in categorisation of perceptual information. In conclusion, we consider how findings from the two fields might be brought together, in order to move towards a general framework for understanding decision-making in humans and other primates.

Model confirmation in climate economics

Science.gov (United States)

Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

2016-01-01

Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

2010-01-01

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Economic analysis of energy supply and national economy on the basis of general equilibrium models. Applications of the input-output decomposition analysis and the Computable General Equilibrium models shown by the example of Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, Jong-Hwan.

1993-01-01

Firstly, this study investigaties the causes of sectoral growth and structural changes in the Korean economy. Secondly, it develops the borders of a consistent economic model in order to investigate simultaneously the different impacts of changes in energy and in the domestic economy. This is done any both the Input-Output-Decomposition analysis and a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE Model). The CGE Model eliminates the disadvantages of the IO Model and allows the investigation of the interdegenerative of the various energy sectors with the economy. The Social Accounting Matrix serves as the data basis of the GCE Model. Simulated experiments have been comet out with the help of the GCE Model, indicating the likely impact of an oil price shock in the economy-sectorally and generally. (orig.) [de

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

CO2, energy and economy interactions: A multisectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium model for Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Yoonyoung

While vast resources have been invested in the development of computational models for cost-benefit analysis for the "whole world" or for the largest economies (e.g. United States, Japan, Germany), the remainder have been thrown together into one model for the "rest of the world." This study presents a multi-sectoral, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Korea. This research evaluates the impacts of controlling COsb2 emissions using a multisectoral CGE model. This CGE economy-energy-environment model analyzes and quantifies the interactions between COsb2, energy and economy. This study examines interactions and influences of key environmental policy components: applied economic instruments, emission targets, and environmental tax revenue recycling methods. The most cost-effective economic instrument is the carbon tax. The economic effects discussed include impacts on main macroeconomic variables (in particular, economic growth), sectoral production, and the energy market. This study considers several aspects of various COsb2 control policies, such as the basic variables in the economy: capital stock and net foreign debt. The results indicate emissions might be stabilized in Korea at the expense of economic growth and with dramatic sectoral allocation effects. Carbon dioxide emissions stabilization could be achieved to the tune of a 600 trillion won loss over a 20 year period (1990-2010). The average annual real GDP would decrease by 2.10% over the simulation period compared to the 5.87% increase in the Business-as-Usual. This model satisfies an immediate need for a policy simulation model for Korea and provides the basic framework for similar economies. It is critical to keep the central economic question at the forefront of any discussion regarding environmental protection. How much will reform cost, and what does the economy stand to gain and lose? Without this model, the policy makers might resort to hesitation or even blind speculation. With

Verification of Decision-Analytic Models for Health Economic Evaluations: An Overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Dasbach, Erik J; Elbasha, Elamin H

2017-07-01

Decision-analytic models for cost-effectiveness analysis are developed in a variety of software packages where the accuracy of the computer code is seldom verified. Although modeling guidelines recommend using state-of-the-art quality assurance and control methods for software engineering to verify models, the fields of pharmacoeconomics and health technology assessment (HTA) have yet to establish and adopt guidance on how to verify health and economic models. The objective of this paper is to introduce to our field the variety of methods the software engineering field uses to verify that software performs as expected. We identify how many of these methods can be incorporated in the development process of decision-analytic models in order to reduce errors and increase transparency. Given the breadth of methods used in software engineering, we recommend a more in-depth initiative to be undertaken (e.g., by an ISPOR-SMDM Task Force) to define the best practices for model verification in our field and to accelerate adoption. Establishing a general guidance for verifying models will benefit the pharmacoeconomics and HTA communities by increasing accuracy of computer programming, transparency, accessibility, sharing, understandability, and trust of models.

A computational model for determining the minimal cost expansion alternatives in transmission systems planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinto, L.M.V.G.; Pereira, M.V.F.; Nunes, A.

1989-01-01

A computational model for determining an economical transmission expansion plan, based in the decomposition techniques is presented. The algorithm was used in the Brazilian South System and was able to find an optimal solution, with a low computational resource. Some expansions of this methodology are been investigated: the probabilistic one and the expansion with financier restriction. (C.G.C.). 4 refs, 7 figs

Trade Barrier Elimination, Economics of Scale and Market Competition: Computable General Equilibrium Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Widyastutik Widyastutik

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries agreed to reduce trade barriers in the services sector, one of which is sea transport services. The purpose of this study is to estimate the equivalent tax of non-tariff barriers in the sea transport services. Besides that, this study is going to analyze the economic impacts of the regulatory barriers elimination in the sea transport services of ASEAN and its dialogue partner countries. Using the gravity model, it can be identified that trade barriers of sea transport services sector of ASEAN and dialogue partner countries are still relatively high. Additionally, by adopting IC-IRTS model in Global CGE Model (GTAP, the simulation results show consistent results with the theory of pro-competitive effects. The greater gain from trade is obtained in the CGE model assuming IC-IRTS compared to PC-CRTS. China gains a greater benefit that is indicated by the highest increase in welfare and GDP followed by Japan and AustraliaDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v6i2.5279

Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

OpenAIRE

Prokhorova, V.

2010-01-01

The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

Thermochemical production of liquid fuels from biomass: Thermo-economic modeling, process design and process integration analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tock, Laurence; Gassner, Martin; Marechal, Francois

2010-01-01

A detailed thermo-economic model combining thermodynamics with economic analysis and considering different technological alternatives for the thermochemical production of liquid fuels from lignocellulosic biomass is presented. Energetic and economic models for the production of Fischer-Tropsch fuel (FT), methanol (MeOH) and dimethyl ether (DME) by means of biomass drying with steam or flue gas, directly or indirectly heated fluidized bed or entrained flow gasification, hot or cold gas cleaning, fuel synthesis and upgrading are reviewed and developed. The process is integrated and the optimal utility system is computed. The competitiveness of the different process options is compared systematically with regard to energetic, economic and environmental considerations. At several examples, it is highlighted that process integration is a key element that allows for considerably increasing the performance by optimal utility integration and energy conversion. The performance computations of some exemplary technology scenarios of integrated plants yield overall energy efficiencies of 59.8% (crude FT-fuel), 52.5% (MeOH) and 53.5% (DME), and production costs of 89, 128 and 113 Euro MWh -1 on fuel basis. The applied process design approach allows to evaluate the economic competitiveness compared to fossil fuels, to study the influence of the biomass and electricity price and to project for different plant capacities. Process integration reveals in particular potential energy savings and waste heat valorization. Based on this work, the most promising options for the polygeneration of fuel, power and heat will be determined in a future thermo-economic optimization.

Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banks, W. F.

1977-07-29

The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

The CMS Computing Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonacorsi, D.

2007-01-01

The CMS experiment at LHC has developed a baseline Computing Model addressing the needs of a computing system capable to operate in the first years of LHC running. It is focused on a data model with heavy streaming at the raw data level based on trigger, and on the achievement of the maximum flexibility in the use of distributed computing resources. The CMS distributed Computing Model includes a Tier-0 centre at CERN, a CMS Analysis Facility at CERN, several Tier-1 centres located at large regional computing centres, and many Tier-2 centres worldwide. The workflows have been identified, along with a baseline architecture for the data management infrastructure. This model is also being tested in Grid Service Challenges of increasing complexity, coordinated with the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid community

Computer programs for capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes for laser fusion and other advanced technology facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pendergrass, J.H.

1978-01-01

Three FORTRAN programs, CAPITAL, VENTURE, and INDEXER, have been developed to automate computations used in assessing the economic viability of proposed or conceptual laser fusion and other advanced-technology facilities, as well as conventional projects. The types of calculations performed by these programs are, respectively, capital cost estimation, lifetime economic performance simulation, and computation of cost indexes. The codes permit these three topics to be addressed with considerable sophistication commensurate with user requirements and available data

A review on economic emission dispatch problems using quantum computational intelligence

Science.gov (United States)

Mahdi, Fahad Parvez; Vasant, Pandian; Kallimani, Vish; Abdullah-Al-Wadud, M.

2016-11-01

Economic emission dispatch (EED) problems are one of the most crucial problems in power systems. Growing energy demand, limitation of natural resources and global warming make this topic into the center of discussion and research. This paper reviews the use of Quantum Computational Intelligence (QCI) in solving Economic Emission Dispatch problems. QCI techniques like Quantum Genetic Algorithm (QGA) and Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO) algorithm are discussed here. This paper will encourage the researcher to use more QCI based algorithm to get better optimal result for solving EED problems.

A hybrid agent-based computational economics and optimization approach for supplier selection problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zahra Pourabdollahi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Supplier evaluation and selection problem is among the most important of logistics decisions that have been addressed extensively in supply chain management. The same logistics decision is also important in freight transportation since it identifies trade relationships between business establishments and determines commodity flows between production and consumption points. The commodity flows are then used as input to freight transportation models to determine cargo movements and their characteristics including mode choice and shipment size. Various approaches have been proposed to explore this latter problem in previous studies. Traditionally, potential suppliers are evaluated and selected using only price/cost as the influential criteria and the state-of-practice methods. This paper introduces a hybrid agent-based computational economics and optimization approach for supplier selection. The proposed model combines an agent-based multi-criteria supplier evaluation approach with a multi-objective optimization model to capture both behavioral and economical aspects of the supplier selection process. The model uses a system of ordered response models to determine importance weights of the different criteria in supplier evaluation from a buyers’ point of view. The estimated weights are then used to calculate a utility for each potential supplier in the market and rank them. The calculated utilities are then entered into a mathematical programming model in which best suppliers are selected by maximizing the total accrued utility for all buyers and minimizing total shipping costs while balancing the capacity of potential suppliers to ensure market clearing mechanisms. The proposed model, herein, was implemented under an operational agent-based supply chain and freight transportation framework for the Chicago Metropolitan Area.

Information security: where computer science, economics and psychology meet.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Ross; Moore, Tyler

2009-07-13

Until ca. 2000, information security was seen as a technological discipline, based on computer science but with mathematics helping in the design of ciphers and protocols. That perspective started to change as researchers and practitioners realized the importance of economics. As distributed systems are increasingly composed of machines that belong to principals with divergent interests, incentives are becoming as important to dependability as technical design. A thriving new field of information security economics provides valuable insights not just into 'security' topics such as privacy, bugs, spam and phishing, but into more general areas of system dependability and policy. This research programme has recently started to interact with psychology. One thread is in response to phishing, the most rapidly growing form of online crime, in which fraudsters trick people into giving their credentials to bogus websites; a second is through the increasing importance of security usability; and a third comes through the psychology-and-economics tradition. The promise of this multidisciplinary research programme is a novel framework for analysing information security problems-one that is both principled and effective.

The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

OpenAIRE

Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

2007-01-01

The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

Efficiency of economic development models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana Camelia Iacob

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

Computational models of neuromodulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Fellous, J M; Linster, C

1998-05-15

Computational modeling of neural substrates provides an excellent theoretical framework for the understanding of the computational roles of neuromodulation. In this review, we illustrate, with a large number of modeling studies, the specific computations performed by neuromodulation in the context of various neural models of invertebrate and vertebrate preparations. We base our characterization of neuromodulations on their computational and functional roles rather than on anatomical or chemical criteria. We review the main framework in which neuromodulation has been studied theoretically (central pattern generation and oscillations, sensory processing, memory and information integration). Finally, we present a detailed mathematical overview of how neuromodulation has been implemented at the single cell and network levels in modeling studies. Overall, neuromodulation is found to increase and control computational complexity.

FPL-PELPS : a price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling, supplement to PELPS III, version 1.1.

Science.gov (United States)

Patricia K. Lebow; Henry Spelter; Peter J. Ince

2003-01-01

This report provides documentation and user information for FPL-PELPS, a personal computer price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Originally developed to model the North American pulp and paper industry, FPL-PELPS follows its predecessors in allowing the modeling of any appropriate sector to predict consumption, production and capacity by...

Cloud Computing:Strategies for Cloud Computing Adoption

OpenAIRE

Shimba, Faith

2010-01-01

The advent of cloud computing in recent years has sparked an interest from different organisations, institutions and users to take advantage of web applications. This is a result of the new economic model for the Information Technology (IT) department that cloud computing promises. The model promises a shift from an organisation required to invest heavily for limited IT resources that are internally managed, to a model where the organisation can buy or rent resources that are managed by a clo...

The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Monaco, Andrew J.

2018-01-01

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sukharev Oleg

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

2015-12-01

Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masoud Kheradmandi

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

Assessing economic impacts of China's water pollution mitigation measures through a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin Changbo; Jia Yangwen; Wang Hao; Bressers, Hans T A; Su, Z

2011-01-01

In this letter, we apply an extended environmental dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences of implementing a total emission control policy. On the basis of emission levels in 2007, we simulate different emission reduction scenarios, ranging from 20 to 50% emission reduction, up to the year 2020. The results indicate that a modest total emission reduction target in 2020 can be achieved at low macroeconomic cost. As the stringency of policy targets increases, the macroeconomic cost will increase at a rate faster than linear. Implementation of a tradable emission permit system can counterbalance the economic costs affecting the gross domestic product and welfare. We also find that a stringent environmental policy can lead to an important shift in production, consumption and trade patterns from dirty sectors to relatively clean sectors.

Plasticity: modeling & computation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Borja, Ronaldo Israel

2013-01-01

.... "Plasticity Modeling & Computation" is a textbook written specifically for students who want to learn the theoretical, mathematical, and computational aspects of inelastic deformation in solids...

The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Faude, D.

1991-01-01

A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Boehringer and Loeschel (2006)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scrieciu, S. Serban

2007-01-01

The search for methods of assessment that best evaluate and integrate the trade-offs and interactions between the economic, environmental and social components of development has been receiving a new impetus due to the requirement that sustainability concerns be incorporated into the policy formulation process. A paper forthcoming in Ecological Economics (Boehringer, C., Loeschel, A., in press. Computable general equilibrium models for sustainability impact assessment: status quo and prospects, Ecological Economics.) claims that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models may potentially represent the much needed 'back-bone' tool to carry out reliable integrated quantitative Sustainability Impact Assessments (SIAs). While acknowledging the usefulness of CGE models for some dimensions of SIA, this commentary questions the legitimacy of employing this particular economic modelling tool as a single integrating modelling framework for a comprehensive evaluation of the multi-dimensional, dynamic and complex interactions between policy and sustainability. It discusses several inherent dangers associated with the advocated prospects for the CGE modelling approach to contribute to comprehensive and reliable sustainability impact assessments. The paper warns that this reductionist viewpoint may seriously infringe upon the basic values underpinning the SIA process, namely a transparent, heterogeneous, balanced, inter-disciplinary, consultative and participatory take to policy evaluation and building of the evidence-base. (author)

Modeling economic costs of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction: analysis using a dynamic CGE model

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, W.; Li, N.; Wu, J.-D.; Hao, X.-L.

2013-11-01

Disaster damages have negative effects on economy, whereas reconstruction investments have positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and further avoid double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks in CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on supply side of economy; A portion of investments restore the capital stock in existing period; An investment-driven dynamic model is formulated due to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S0 (no disaster occurs), S1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S1 and S0 and that between S2 and S0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction respectively. The study showed that output from S1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S2. S2 overestimates economic loss by roughly two times that under S1. The gap in economic aggregate between S1 and S0 is reduced to 3% in 2011, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S2.

Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

This paper summarizes a demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis performed on the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2. The study was performed with uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled as part of the MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: 1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques on a health and economic consequence model, 2) to test the computer models which implement the techniques, 3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis, and 4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Demonstration of the applicability of the techniques was the motivation for performing this study; thus, the results should not be taken as a definitive uncertainty analysis of health and economic consequences. Nevertheless, significant insights on health and economic consequence analysis can be drawn from the results of this type of study. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used in this study. LHS generates a multivariate input structure in which all the variables of interest are varied simultaneously and desired correlations between variables are preserved. LHS has been shown to produce estimates of output distribution functions that are comparable with results of larger random samples

Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

Science.gov (United States)

Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

2007-01-01

Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

Economic Optimization of Spray Dryer Operation using Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with State Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Lars Norbert; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Rawlings, James B.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we develop an economically optimizing Nonlinear Model Predictive Controller (E-NMPC) for a complete spray drying plant with multiple stages. In the E-NMPC the initial state is estimated by an extended Kalman Filter (EKF) with noise covariances estimated by an autocovariance least...... squares method (ALS). We present a model for the spray drying plant and use this model for simulation as well as for prediction in the E-NMPC. The open-loop optimal control problem in the E-NMPC is solved using the single-shooting method combined with a quasi-Newton Sequential Quadratic programming (SQP......) algorithm and the adjoint method for computation of gradients. We evaluate the economic performance when unmeasured disturbances are present. By simulation, we demonstrate that the E-NMPC improves the profit of spray drying by 17% compared to conventional PI control....

R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Gh. Rosca

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

2017-09-01

Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An economic and financial exploratory

Science.gov (United States)

Cincotti, S.; Sornette, D.; Treleaven, P.; Battiston, S.; Caldarelli, G.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.

2012-11-01

This paper describes the vision of a European Exploratory for economics and finance using an interdisciplinary consortium of economists, natural scientists, computer scientists and engineers, who will combine their expertise to address the enormous challenges of the 21st century. This Academic Public facility is intended for economic modelling, investigating all aspects of risk and stability, improving financial technology, and evaluating proposed regulatory and taxation changes. The European Exploratory for economics and finance will be constituted as a network of infrastructure, observatories, data repositories, services and facilities and will foster the creation of a new cross-disciplinary research community of social scientists, complexity scientists and computing (ICT) scientists to collaborate in investigating major issues in economics and finance. It is also considered a cradle for training and collaboration with the private sector to spur spin-offs and job creations in Europe in the finance and economic sectors. The Exploratory will allow Social Scientists and Regulators as well as Policy Makers and the private sector to conduct realistic investigations with real economic, financial and social data. The Exploratory will (i) continuously monitor and evaluate the status of the economies of countries in their various components, (ii) use, extend and develop a large variety of methods including data mining, process mining, computational and artificial intelligence and every other computer and complex science techniques coupled with economic theory and econometric, and (iii) provide the framework and infrastructure to perform what-if analysis, scenario evaluations and computational, laboratory, field and web experiments to inform decision makers and help develop innovative policy, market and regulation designs.

Computer modelling the potential benefits of amines in NPP Bohunice secondary circuit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fountain, M.J.; Smiesko, I.

1998-01-01

The use of computer modelling of PWR and WWER secondary circuit chemistry was already demonstrated in the past. The model was used to illustrate the technical and economic advantages, compared with ammonia, of using an 'advanced', high basicity, low volatility amines to raise the liquid phase pH(T) in the moisture separator and other areas swept by wet steam. Since the 1995, this technique has been successfully applied to a number of power plants and the computer model has been progressively developed. This paper describes the preliminary results of an ongoing assessment being carried out for the VVER 440 plants at Bohunice. The work for Bohunice is being funded by the 'Know How Fund', a department in the British Government's Foreign and Commonwealth Office. (J.P.N.)

Complexity hints for economic policy

CERN Document Server

Salzano, Massimo

2007-01-01

This volume extends the complexity approach to economics. This complexity approach is not a completely new way of doing economics, and that it is a replacement for existing economics, but rather the integration of some new analytic and computational techniques into economists’ bag of tools. It provides some alternative pattern generators, which can supplement existing approaches by providing an alternative way of finding patterns than be obtained by the traditional scientific approach. On this new kind of policy hints can be obtained. The reason why the complexity approach is taking hold now in economics is because the computing technology has advanced. This advance allows consideration of analytical systems that could not previously be considered by economists. Consideration of these systems suggested that the results of the "control-based" models might not extend easily to more complicated systems, and that we now have a method—piggybacking computer assisted analysis onto analytic methods—to start gen...

Computer-Aided Modeling Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fedorova, Marina; Sin, Gürkan; Gani, Rafiqul

Models are playing important roles in design and analysis of chemicals based products and the processes that manufacture them. Computer-aided methods and tools have the potential to reduce the number of experiments, which can be expensive and time consuming, and there is a benefit of working...... development and application. The proposed work is a part of the project for development of methods and tools that will allow systematic generation, analysis and solution of models for various objectives. It will use the computer-aided modeling framework that is based on a modeling methodology, which combines....... In this contribution, the concept of template-based modeling is presented and application is highlighted for the specific case of catalytic membrane fixed bed models. The modeling template is integrated in a generic computer-aided modeling framework. Furthermore, modeling templates enable the idea of model reuse...

Computer Profiling Based Model for Investigation

OpenAIRE

Neeraj Choudhary; Nikhil Kumar Singh; Parmalik Singh

2011-01-01

Computer profiling is used for computer forensic analysis, and proposes and elaborates on a novel model for use in computer profiling, the computer profiling object model. The computer profiling object model is an information model which models a computer as objects with various attributes and inter-relationships. These together provide the information necessary for a human investigator or an automated reasoning engine to make judgments as to the probable usage and evidentiary value of a comp...

Mars Colony in situ resource utilization: An integrated architecture and economics model

Science.gov (United States)

Shishko, Robert; Fradet, René; Do, Sydney; Saydam, Serkan; Tapia-Cortez, Carlos; Dempster, Andrew G.; Coulton, Jeff

2017-09-01

This paper reports on our effort to develop an ensemble of specialized models to explore the commercial potential of mining water/ice on Mars in support of a Mars Colony. This ensemble starts with a formal systems architecting framework to describe a Mars Colony and capture its artifacts' parameters and technical attributes. The resulting database is then linked to a variety of ;downstream; analytic models. In particular, we integrated an extraction process (i.e., ;mining;) model, a simulation of the colony's environmental control and life support infrastructure known as HabNet, and a risk-based economics model. The mining model focuses on the technologies associated with in situ resource extraction, processing, storage and handling, and delivery. This model computes the production rate as a function of the systems' technical parameters and the local Mars environment. HabNet simulates the fundamental sustainability relationships associated with establishing and maintaining the colony's population. The economics model brings together market information, investment and operating costs, along with measures of market uncertainty and Monte Carlo techniques, with the objective of determining the profitability of commercial water/ice in situ mining operations. All told, over 50 market and technical parameters can be varied in order to address ;what-if; questions, including colony location.

A stochastic model for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for production and functional traits in dairy cattle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Hanne-Marie; Groen, A F; Østergaard, Søren

2006-01-01

The objective of this paper was to present a model of a dairy cattle production system for the derivation of economic values and their standard deviations for both production and functional traits under Danish production circumstances. The stochastic model used is dynamic, and simulates production...... was -0.94 €/day per cow-year. Standard deviations of economic values expressing variation in realised profit of a farm before and after a genetic change were computed using a linear Taylor series expansion. Expressed as coefficient of variation, standard deviations of economic values based on 1000...

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

1984-01-01

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Holmes, Bryan

1976-01-01

Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

Evaluating the influence of increasing block tariffs in residential gas sector using agent-based computational economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gong, Chengzhu; Yu, Shiwei; Zhu, Kejun; Hailu, Atakelty

2016-01-01

Designing a desirable increasing block tariff for the residential gas retail market has been a challenging task for regulated utilities, especially in China. To deal with such problems, in this paper, we establish an agent-based, computational economics system to provide a formal evaluation of the direct and indirect influences of several issued increasing block tariffs in the residential gas market. Moreover, a comprehensive demand response behaviour model has been improved in term of price elasticity, while still coping with income levels and complex social environment. We also compute and compare the outcomes of several increasing block tariffs with the initial flat tariff by running the system on a test-case using real-world data from a middle-scale gas retail market in Wuhan. The results indicate that there is an appropriate increasing block gas tariff scheme that has greater ability to improve social equity while still ensuring operator revenue and promoting gas conservation. In order to offset the limitations of the proposed increasing block tariffs, the regulator should adopt some complementary measures, such as applying appropriate policies targeting the intended consumers, and allowing large families to obtain extra allowance of volume. - Highlights: •Analyse the influence of increasing block tariffs in residential gas sector. •An agent-based computational economics system is utilised for policy analysis. •Increasing block tariff can generate revenue while still promote gas conservation. •The increasing subsidy for low income household can improve the social equity.

Interactive Computer Lessons for Introductory Economics: Guided Inquiry-From Supply and Demand to Women in the Economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, John; Weil, Gordon

1986-01-01

The interactive feature of computers is used to incorporate a guided inquiry method of learning introductory economics, extending the Computer Assisted Instruction (CAI) method beyond drills. (Author/JDH)

Models of optical quantum computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krovi Hari

2017-03-01

Full Text Available I review some work on models of quantum computing, optical implementations of these models, as well as the associated computational power. In particular, we discuss the circuit model and cluster state implementations using quantum optics with various encodings such as dual rail encoding, Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill encoding, and coherent state encoding. Then we discuss intermediate models of optical computing such as boson sampling and its variants. Finally, we review some recent work in optical implementations of adiabatic quantum computing and analog optical computing. We also provide a brief description of the relevant aspects from complexity theory needed to understand the results surveyed.

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

2007-01-01

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

Physics and financial economics (1776-2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

Science.gov (United States)

Sornette, Didier

2014-06-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling in cardiovascular medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Paul D; Narracott, Andrew; von Tengg-Kobligk, Hendrik; Silva Soto, Daniel Alejandro; Hsiao, Sarah; Lungu, Angela; Evans, Paul; Bressloff, Neil W; Lawford, Patricia V; Hose, D Rodney; Gunn, Julian P

2016-01-01

This paper reviews the methods, benefits and challenges associated with the adoption and translation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling within cardiovascular medicine. CFD, a specialist area of mathematics and a branch of fluid mechanics, is used routinely in a diverse range of safety-critical engineering systems, which increasingly is being applied to the cardiovascular system. By facilitating rapid, economical, low-risk prototyping, CFD modelling has already revolutionised research and development of devices such as stents, valve prostheses, and ventricular assist devices. Combined with cardiovascular imaging, CFD simulation enables detailed characterisation of complex physiological pressure and flow fields and the computation of metrics which cannot be directly measured, for example, wall shear stress. CFD models are now being translated into clinical tools for physicians to use across the spectrum of coronary, valvular, congenital, myocardial and peripheral vascular diseases. CFD modelling is apposite for minimally-invasive patient assessment. Patient-specific (incorporating data unique to the individual) and multi-scale (combining models of different length- and time-scales) modelling enables individualised risk prediction and virtual treatment planning. This represents a significant departure from traditional dependence upon registry-based, population-averaged data. Model integration is progressively moving towards 'digital patient' or 'virtual physiological human' representations. When combined with population-scale numerical models, these models have the potential to reduce the cost, time and risk associated with clinical trials. The adoption of CFD modelling signals a new era in cardiovascular medicine. While potentially highly beneficial, a number of academic and commercial groups are addressing the associated methodological, regulatory, education- and service-related challenges. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission

Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

Science.gov (United States)

de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

2014-05-01

To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

2017-12-01

Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

The economics of bootstrapping space industries - Development of an analytic computer model

Science.gov (United States)

Goldberg, A. H.; Criswell, D. R.

1982-01-01

A simple economic model of 'bootstrapping' industrial growth in space and on the Moon is presented. An initial space manufacturing facility (SMF) is assumed to consume lunar materials to enlarge the productive capacity in space. After reaching a predetermined throughput, the enlarged SMF is devoted to products which generate revenue continuously in proportion to the accumulated output mass (such as space solar power stations). Present discounted value and physical estimates for the general factors of production (transport, capital efficiency, labor, etc.) are combined to explore optimum growth in terms of maximized discounted revenues. It is found that 'bootstrapping' reduces the fractional cost to a space industry of transport off-Earth, permits more efficient use of a given transport fleet. It is concluded that more attention should be given to structuring 'bootstrapping' scenarios in which 'learning while doing' can be more fully incorporated in program analysis.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Grames

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

Multiresponse semiparametric regression for modelling the effect of regional socio-economic variables on the use of information technology

Science.gov (United States)

Wibowo, Wahyu; Wene, Chatrien; Budiantara, I. Nyoman; Permatasari, Erma Oktania

2017-03-01

Multiresponse semiparametric regression is simultaneous equation regression model and fusion of parametric and nonparametric model. The regression model comprise several models and each model has two components, parametric and nonparametric. The used model has linear function as parametric and polynomial truncated spline as nonparametric component. The model can handle both linearity and nonlinearity relationship between response and the sets of predictor variables. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the application of the regression model for modeling of effect of regional socio-economic on use of information technology. More specific, the response variables are percentage of households has access to internet and percentage of households has personal computer. Then, predictor variables are percentage of literacy people, percentage of electrification and percentage of economic growth. Based on identification of the relationship between response and predictor variable, economic growth is treated as nonparametric predictor and the others are parametric predictors. The result shows that the multiresponse semiparametric regression can be applied well as indicate by the high coefficient determination, 90 percent.

Discharge Fee Policy Analysis: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of Water Resources and Water Environments

OpenAIRE

Guohua Fang; Ting Wang; Xinyi Si; Xin Wen; Yu Liu

2016-01-01

To alleviate increasingly serious water pollution and shortages in developing countries, various kinds of policies have been implemented by local governments. It is vital to quantify and evaluate the performance and potential economic impacts of these policies. This study develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the regional economic and environmental effects of discharge fees. Firstly, water resources and water environment factors are separated from the input and out...

Sustaining Economic Exploitation of Complex Ecosystems in Computational Models of Coupled Human-Natural Networks

OpenAIRE

Martinez, Neo D.; Tonin, Perrine; Bauer, Barbara; Rael, Rosalyn C.; Singh, Rahul; Yoon, Sangyuk; Yoon, Ilmi; Dunne, Jennifer A.

2012-01-01

Understanding ecological complexity has stymied scientists for decades. Recent elucidation of the famously coined "devious strategies for stability in enduring natural systems" has opened up a new field of computational analyses of complex ecological networks where the nonlinear dynamics of many interacting species can be more realistically mod-eled and understood. Here, we describe the first extension of this field to include coupled human-natural systems. This extension elucidates new strat...

Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schumacher, K.

2007-04-18

Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

Overhead Crane Computer Model

Science.gov (United States)

Enin, S. S.; Omelchenko, E. Y.; Fomin, N. V.; Beliy, A. V.

2018-03-01

The paper has a description of a computer model of an overhead crane system. The designed overhead crane system consists of hoisting, trolley and crane mechanisms as well as a payload two-axis system. With the help of the differential equation of specified mechanisms movement derived through Lagrange equation of the II kind, it is possible to build an overhead crane computer model. The computer model was obtained using Matlab software. Transients of coordinate, linear speed and motor torque of trolley and crane mechanism systems were simulated. In addition, transients of payload swaying were obtained with respect to the vertical axis. A trajectory of the trolley mechanism with simultaneous operation with the crane mechanism is represented in the paper as well as a two-axis trajectory of payload. The designed computer model of an overhead crane is a great means for studying positioning control and anti-sway control systems.

Impact Analysis of Economic Linkages of South Korea with North Korea Using a CGE Model

OpenAIRE

Kim, Euijune; Shin, Hyewon

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate impacts of core infrastructure investments in North Korea on South and North Koreas. The investment expenditures of core infrastructure projects in North Korea are calibrated as 9.35 billion US$ including highway, railroad and industrial complex. Since South and North Koreas are based on market and planned economies respectively, the Computable General Equilibrium model is applied to the economic analysis of South Korea and an Input-Output Model for th...

The impact of the British model on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon György Jr.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2017-06-13

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henriksen, Lasse Folke

2013-01-01

Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

MOBILE COMPUTING USING ANDROID WITH AN EMPHASIZES ON ECONOMIC APPLICATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magnolia TILCA

2016-12-01

Full Text Available As result of the convergence of computers and mobile phones, Android comes with the great opportunity of implementing personal mobile applications in a Java language environment. The paper presents two main aspects concerning the new age of programming. The first aspect refers to the existing library of applications in economic domain. The paper extracts the most useful financial and business apps that run on Android smart-phones. The second aspect presents an example of building an economic application using one of Android’s various IDEs (Integrated Development Environments: Android Studio. The developed app calculates the prognosis of a business size starting from known statistic data sets and evaluates the effort of the business implementation, using the linear regression method. The app differs from other Android applications by the explicit answers that result from the regression calculus

Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

2013-01-01

This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

2008-12-01

Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivanov Roman V.

2017-04-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Zaporozhtseva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

Energy, economy and equity interactions in a CGE [Computable General Equilibrium] model for Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naqvi, Farzana

1997-01-01

In the last three decades, Computable General Equilibrium modelling has emerged as an established field of applied economics. This book presents a CGE model developed for Pakistan with the hope that it will lay down a foundation for application of general equilibrium modelling for policy formation in Pakistan. As the country is being driven swiftly to become an open market economy, it becomes vital to found out the policy measures that can foster the objectives of economic planning, such as social equity, with the minimum loss of the efficiency gains from the open market resource allocations. It is not possible to build a model for practical use that can do justice to all sectors of the economy in modelling of their peculiar features. The CGE model developed in this book focuses on the energy sector. Energy is considered as one of the basic needs and an essential input to economic growth. Hence, energy policy has multiple criteria to meet. In this book, a case study has been carried out to analyse energy pricing policy in Pakistan using this CGE model of energy, economy and equity interactions. Hence, the book also demonstrates how researchers can model the fine details of one sector given the core structure of a CGE model. (UK)

Computationally Modeling Interpersonal Trust

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Joo eLee

2013-12-01

Full Text Available We present a computational model capable of predicting—above human accuracy—the degree of trust a person has toward their novel partner by observing the trust-related nonverbal cues expressed in their social interaction. We summarize our prior work, in which we identify nonverbal cues that signal untrustworthy behavior and also demonstrate the human mind’s readiness to interpret those cues to assess the trustworthiness of a social robot. We demonstrate that domain knowledge gained from our prior work using human-subjects experiments, when incorporated into the feature engineering process, permits a computational model to outperform both human predictions and a baseline model built in naivete' of this domain knowledge. We then present the construction of hidden Markov models to incorporate temporal relationships among the trust-related nonverbal cues. By interpreting the resulting learned structure, we observe that models built to emulate different levels of trust exhibit different sequences of nonverbal cues. From this observation, we derived sequence-based temporal features that further improve the accuracy of our computational model. Our multi-step research process presented in this paper combines the strength of experimental manipulation and machine learning to not only design a computational trust model but also to further our understanding of the dynamics of interpersonal trust.

Monitoring of Shadow Cash Flows Using Computer Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Evgeniya Vladimirovna Baturina

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The computer simulation of economic systems is a promising tool in the development of the theory of the country’s economic security. We have examined the Russian banking legislation and synthesized judicial economic expertise. This has allowed to develop an algorithm for the investigation of the marker pattern of shadow cash flows. The authors’ algorithm of marker monitoring of cash flow consists of the following sequences. Firstly, we set the time of the first receipt of money and the first withdrawals. Secondly, we compare cash balance of an organization at the beginning of the period with the first withdrawals. Thirdly, under the given condition, the minimum value of interested money flow in these withdrawals is calculated. This value is characterized by the marker parameters and forms a table containing data on the cash flow, recipients and payers, spheres of their activity. And last, on the basis of this table, we build a graph of relationships between the subjects of the shadow economy. The graph’s vertices represent these subjects. The visual representation of the graph is a marker pattern of shadow cash flow. The practical importance of this algorithm is due to its applicability in the investigation of economic crimes both at the stage of intelligence operations, and when obtaining proofs of the brought criminal cases in the form of the conclusions of expertseconomists. In addition, marker patterns of shadow cash flows can describe the state of the shadow economy of a region as a whole including its dynamics. This expands its parameterization. The created database of the shadow flows of the economy can be also useful for the scientific community. On the basis of the received results, we have developed management decisions to create and administer the information resource of the Bank of Russia “Shadow economy of a region”. This information resource ensures tracking the marker trace of cash flow in the bank environment by the

Computational Modeling of Space Physiology

Science.gov (United States)

Lewandowski, Beth E.; Griffin, Devon W.

2016-01-01

The Digital Astronaut Project (DAP), within NASAs Human Research Program, develops and implements computational modeling for use in the mitigation of human health and performance risks associated with long duration spaceflight. Over the past decade, DAP developed models to provide insights into space flight related changes to the central nervous system, cardiovascular system and the musculoskeletal system. Examples of the models and their applications include biomechanical models applied to advanced exercise device development, bone fracture risk quantification for mission planning, accident investigation, bone health standards development, and occupant protection. The International Space Station (ISS), in its role as a testing ground for long duration spaceflight, has been an important platform for obtaining human spaceflight data. DAP has used preflight, in-flight and post-flight data from short and long duration astronauts for computational model development and validation. Examples include preflight and post-flight bone mineral density data, muscle cross-sectional area, and muscle strength measurements. Results from computational modeling supplement space physiology research by informing experimental design. Using these computational models, DAP personnel can easily identify both important factors associated with a phenomenon and areas where data are lacking. This presentation will provide examples of DAP computational models, the data used in model development and validation, and applications of the model.

The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poursina, B.

1998-08-01

Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

Economic modelling for life extension decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

1987-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

Reliability–based economic model predictive control for generalised flow–based networks including actuators’ health–aware capabilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grosso Juan M.

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a reliability-based economic model predictive control (MPC strategy for the management of generalised flow-based networks, integrating some ideas on network service reliability, dynamic safety stock planning, and degradation of equipment health. The proposed strategy is based on a single-layer economic optimisation problem with dynamic constraints, which includes two enhancements with respect to existing approaches. The first enhancement considers chance-constraint programming to compute an optimal inventory replenishment policy based on a desired risk acceptability level, leading to dynamical allocation of safety stocks in flow-based networks to satisfy non-stationary flow demands. The second enhancement computes a smart distribution of the control effort and maximises actuators’ availability by estimating their degradation and reliability. The proposed approach is illustrated with an application of water transport networks using the Barcelona network as the case study considered.

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

Patient-Specific Computational Modeling

CERN Document Server

Peña, Estefanía

2012-01-01

This book addresses patient-specific modeling. It integrates computational modeling, experimental procedures, imagine clinical segmentation and mesh generation with the finite element method (FEM) to solve problems in computational biomedicine and bioengineering. Specific areas of interest include cardiovascular problems, ocular and muscular systems and soft tissue modeling. Patient-specific modeling has been the subject of serious research over the last seven years and interest in the area is continually growing and this area is expected to further develop in the near future.

Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

2013-04-01

The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

THE PRODUCTION AND EVALUATION OF THREE COMPUTER-BASED ECONOMICS GAMES FOR THE SIXTH GRADE. FINAL REPORT.

Science.gov (United States)

WING, RICHARD L.; AND OTHERS

THE PURPOSE OF THE EXPERIMENT WAS TO PRODUCE AND EVALUATE 3 COMPUTER-BASED ECONOMICS GAMES AS A METHOD OF INDIVIDUALIZING INSTRUCTION FOR GRADE 6 STUDENTS. 26 EXPERIMENTAL SUBJECTS PLAYED 2 ECONOMICS GAMES, WHILE A CONTROL GROUP RECEIVED CONVENTIONAL INSTRUCTION ON SIMILAR MATERIAL. IN THE SUMERIAN GAME, STUDENTS SEATED AT THE TYPEWRITER TERMINALS…

Physics and financial economics (1776–2014): puzzles, Ising and agent-based models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sornette, Didier

2014-01-01

This short review presents a selected history of the mutual fertilization between physics and economics—from Isaac Newton and Adam Smith to the present. The fundamentally different perspectives embraced in theories developed in financial economics compared with physics are dissected with the examples of the volatility smile and of the excess volatility puzzle. The role of the Ising model of phase transitions to model social and financial systems is reviewed, with the concepts of random utilities and the logit model as the analog of the Boltzmann factor in statistical physics. Recent extensions in terms of quantum decision theory are also covered. A wealth of models are discussed briefly that build on the Ising model and generalize it to account for the many stylized facts of financial markets. A summary of the relevance of the Ising model and its extensions is provided to account for financial bubbles and crashes. The review would be incomplete if it did not cover the dynamical field of agent-based models (ABMs), also known as computational economic models, of which the Ising-type models are just special ABM implementations. We formulate the ‘Emerging Intelligence Market Hypothesis’ to reconcile the pervasive presence of ‘noise traders’ with the near efficiency of financial markets. Finally, we note that evolutionary biology, more than physics, is now playing a growing role to inspire models of financial markets. (key issues reviews)

Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

Science.gov (United States)

Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

2017-12-01

The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

MODELLING OF TOURISM SERVICE DYNAMICS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ECONOMIC PATTERN OF SOCIETY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lesya Buyak

2016-11-01

dynamics of tourist services. The study is creating simulation economic structure of society in dynamic tourist services. To achieve this goal was set and solved the following tasks: to conduct computational experiments planned to reveal the real trend of economic systems, and – to explore possible economic laws implementing services in terms of appropriate control measures. Conclusions. With solutions, built model follows in principle the possibility of optimal control over modern economic processes, the possibility of disposal of available industrial residues and further the economic development of our country.

Economic aspects and models for building codes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

A methodology for thermo-economic modeling and optimization of solid oxide fuel cell systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palazzi, Francesca; Autissier, Nordahl; Marechal, Francois M.A.; Favrat, Daniel

2007-01-01

In the context of stationary power generation, fuel cell-based systems are being foreseen as a valuable alternative to thermodynamic cycle-based power plants, especially in small scale applications. As the technology is not yet established, many aspects of fuel cell development are currently investigated worldwide. Part of the research focuses on integrating the fuel cell in a system that is both efficient and economically attractive. To address this problem, we present in this paper a thermo-economic optimization method that systematically generates the most attractive configurations of an integrated system. In the developed methodology, the energy flows are computed using conventional process simulation software. The system is integrated using the pinch based methods that rely on optimization techniques. This defines the minimum of energy required and sets the basis to design the ideal heat exchanger network. A thermo-economic method is then used to compute the integrated system performances, sizes and costs. This allows performing the optimization of the system with regard to two objectives: minimize the specific cost and maximize the efficiency. A solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system of 50 kW integrating a planar SOFC is modeled and optimized leading to designs with efficiencies ranging from 34% to 44%. The multi-objective optimization strategy identifies interesting system configurations and their performance for the developed SOFC system model. The methods proves to be an attractive tool to be used both as an advanced analysis tool and as support to decision makers when designing new systems

Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

2013-01-01

the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røpke, Inge

2003-01-01

The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

A Model of Computation for Bit-Level Concurrent Computing and Programming: APEC

Science.gov (United States)

Ajiro, Takashi; Tsuchida, Kensei

A concurrent model of computation and a language based on the model for bit-level operation are useful for developing asynchronous and concurrent programs compositionally, which frequently use bit-level operations. Some examples are programs for video games, hardware emulation (including virtual machines), and signal processing. However, few models and languages are optimized and oriented to bit-level concurrent computation. We previously developed a visual programming language called A-BITS for bit-level concurrent programming. The language is based on a dataflow-like model that computes using processes that provide serial bit-level operations and FIFO buffers connected to them. It can express bit-level computation naturally and develop compositionally. We then devised a concurrent computation model called APEC (Asynchronous Program Elements Connection) for bit-level concurrent computation. This model enables precise and formal expression of the process of computation, and a notion of primitive program elements for controlling and operating can be expressed synthetically. Specifically, the model is based on a notion of uniform primitive processes, called primitives, that have three terminals and four ordered rules at most, as well as on bidirectional communication using vehicles called carriers. A new notion is that a carrier moving between two terminals can briefly express some kinds of computation such as synchronization and bidirectional communication. The model's properties make it most applicable to bit-level computation compositionally, since the uniform computation elements are enough to develop components that have practical functionality. Through future application of the model, our research may enable further research on a base model of fine-grain parallel computer architecture, since the model is suitable for expressing massive concurrency by a network of primitives.

Student Study Choices in the Principles of Economics: A Case Study of Computer Usage

OpenAIRE

Grimes, Paul W.; Sanderson, Patricia L.; Ching, Geok H.

1996-01-01

Principles of Economics students at Mississippi State University were provided the opportunity to use computer assisted instruction (CAI) as a supplemental study activity. Students were free to choose the extent of their computer work. Throughout the course, weekly surveys were conducted to monitor the time each student spent with their textbook, computerized tutorials, workbook, class notes, and study groups. The surveys indicated that only a minority of the students actively pursued CAI....

Economic effects on taxing CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haaparanta, P.; Jerkkola, J.; Pohjola, J.

1996-01-01

The CO 2 emissions can be reduced by using economic instruments, like carbon tax. This project included two specific questions related to CO 2 taxation. First one was the economic effects of increasing CO 2 tax and decreasing other taxes. Second was the economic adjustment costs of reducing net emissions instead of gross emissions. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used in this analysis. The study was taken place in Helsinki School of Economics

Computer Applications in the Design Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Winchip, Susan

Computer Assisted Design (CAD) and Computer Assisted Manufacturing (CAM) are emerging technologies now being used in home economics and interior design applications. A microcomputer in a computer network system is capable of executing computer graphic functions such as three-dimensional modeling, as well as utilizing office automation packages to…

International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Cyber Security, and Computational Models

CERN Document Server

Ramasamy, Vijayalakshmi; Sheen, Shina; Veeramani, C; Bonato, Anthony; Batten, Lynn

2016-01-01

This book aims at promoting high-quality research by researchers and practitioners from academia and industry at the International Conference on Computational Intelligence, Cyber Security, and Computational Models ICC3 2015 organized by PSG College of Technology, Coimbatore, India during December 17 – 19, 2015. This book enriches with innovations in broad areas of research like computational modeling, computational intelligence and cyber security. These emerging inter disciplinary research areas have helped to solve multifaceted problems and gained lot of attention in recent years. This encompasses theory and applications, to provide design, analysis and modeling of the aforementioned key areas.

Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae MOROIANU

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

Computer Modeling and Simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pronskikh, V. S. [Fermilab

2014-05-09

Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2016-09-01

International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

Modeling the Unites States government's economic cost of noise-induced hearing loss for a military population.

Science.gov (United States)

Tufts, Jennifer B; Weathersby, Paul K; Rodriguez, Francisco A

2010-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of developing economic cost models for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). First, we outline an economic model of NIHL for a population of US Navy sailors with an "industrial"-type noise exposure. Next, we describe the effect on NIHL-related cost of varying the two central model inputs--the noise-exposure level and the duration of exposure. Such an analysis can help prioritize promising areas, to which limited resources to reduce NIHL-related costs should be devoted. NIHL-related costs borne by the US government were computed on a yearly basis using a finite element approach that took into account varying levels of susceptibility to NIHL. Predicted hearing thresholds for the population were computed with ANSI S3.44-1996 and then used as the basis for the calculation of NIHL-related costs. Annual and cumulative costs were tracked. Noise-exposure level and duration were systematically varied to determine their effects on the expected lifetime NIHL-related cost of a specific US Navy sailor population. Our nominal noise-exposure case [93 dB(A) for six years] yielded a total expected lifetime cost of US $13,472 per sailor, with plausible lower and upper bounds of US $2,500 and US $26,000. Starting with the nominal case, a decrease of 50% in exposure level or duration would yield cost savings of approximately 23% and 19%, respectively. We concluded that a reduction in noise level would be more somewhat more cost-effective than the same percentage reduction in years of exposure. Our economic cost model can be used to estimate the changes in NIHL-related costs that would result from changes in noise-exposure level and/or duration for a single military population. Although the model is limited at present, suggestions are provided for adapting it to civilian populations.

Economic tour package model using heuristic

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

2014-07-01

A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

Quasi-monte carlo simulation and variance reduction techniques substantially reduce computational requirements of patient-level simulation models: An application to a discrete event simulation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Treur, M.; Postma, M.

2014-01-01

Objectives: Patient-level simulation models provide increased flexibility to overcome the limitations of cohort-based approaches in health-economic analysis. However, computational requirements of reaching convergence is a notorious barrier. The objective was to assess the impact of using

Modeling recent economic debates

Science.gov (United States)

Skiadas, Christos H.

The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

Modeling and Simulation of the Economics of Mining in the Bitcoin Market.

Science.gov (United States)

Cocco, Luisanna; Marchesi, Michele

2016-01-01

In January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto gave rise to the "Bitcoin Blockchain", creating the first block of the chain hashing on his computer's central processing unit (CPU). Since then, the hash calculations to mine Bitcoin have been getting more and more complex, and consequently the mining hardware evolved to adapt to this increasing difficulty. Three generations of mining hardware have followed the CPU's generation. They are GPU's, FPGA's and ASIC's generations. This work presents an agent-based artificial market model of the Bitcoin mining process and of the Bitcoin transactions. The goal of this work is to model the economy of the mining process, starting from GPU's generation, the first with economic significance. The model reproduces some "stylized facts" found in real-time price series and some core aspects of the mining business. In particular, the computational experiments performed can reproduce the unit root property, the fat tail phenomenon and the volatility clustering of Bitcoin price series. In addition, under proper assumptions, they can reproduce the generation of Bitcoins, the hashing capability, the power consumption, and the mining hardware and electrical energy expenditures of the Bitcoin network.

Modeling and Simulation of the Economics of Mining in the Bitcoin Market.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luisanna Cocco

Full Text Available In January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto gave rise to the "Bitcoin Blockchain", creating the first block of the chain hashing on his computer's central processing unit (CPU. Since then, the hash calculations to mine Bitcoin have been getting more and more complex, and consequently the mining hardware evolved to adapt to this increasing difficulty. Three generations of mining hardware have followed the CPU's generation. They are GPU's, FPGA's and ASIC's generations. This work presents an agent-based artificial market model of the Bitcoin mining process and of the Bitcoin transactions. The goal of this work is to model the economy of the mining process, starting from GPU's generation, the first with economic significance. The model reproduces some "stylized facts" found in real-time price series and some core aspects of the mining business. In particular, the computational experiments performed can reproduce the unit root property, the fat tail phenomenon and the volatility clustering of Bitcoin price series. In addition, under proper assumptions, they can reproduce the generation of Bitcoins, the hashing capability, the power consumption, and the mining hardware and electrical energy expenditures of the Bitcoin network.

Development of the financial model for analyses on economic performances of nuclear facilities and examples of its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi; Ueno, Seiichi; Kimura, Shigeru; Yuasa, Tadao.

1988-10-01

On the assumption of the commercialization stage of technologies, the analysis on performances in financial operation based on simulation studies is one of important study subjects in the field of the system analysis and economic assessments of nuclear technologies. However, economic assessments on financial performances of such complex industries as nuclear power based on nuclear fuel cycle industries, or as electric utilities composed of hydro, fossil, nuclear power stations are complicated, and the adoption of conventional financial model is insufficient in the case of nuclear technologies which have such special financial process as decommissioning. We, therefore, develop the computer simulation model that can analyze financial performances of nuclear facilities. In this report, the derivation of equations and outlines of the model are explained. Additionally, examples of hypothetical financial simulation studies on a coal-gasoline plant, nuclear waste industries, and analysis on economic perspectives of small size nuclear reactors for electric utilities are indicated. (author)

Modeling Computer Virus and Its Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mei Peng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Based on that the computer will be infected by infected computer and exposed computer, and some of the computers which are in suscepitible status and exposed status can get immunity by antivirus ability, a novel coumputer virus model is established. The dynamic behaviors of this model are investigated. First, the basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold of the computer virus spreading in internet, is determined. Second, this model has a virus-free equilibrium P0, which means that the infected part of the computer disappears, and the virus dies out, and P0 is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium if R01 then this model has only one viral equilibrium P*, which means that the computer persists at a constant endemic level, and P* is also globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the analytical results.

Regional economic impact of oil spills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heen, K.; Andersen, M.

1994-01-01

An approach is demonstrated of coupling an environmental model to input-output analysis which aims to quantify the regional economic impact of an environmental accident. The model is implemented with the data of a potential oil spill interacting with the salmon aquaculture industry in Northern Norway. The production loss in salmon aquaculture and the regional income impact is computed and discussed. The approach used in this article could be a model for estimating the regional socio-economic impact of environmental factors like water and air pollution. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 19 refs

Assessment of health and economic effects by PM2.5 pollution in Beijing: a combined exposure-response and computable general equilibrium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guizhi; Gu, SaiJu; Chen, Jibo; Wu, Xianhua; Yu, Jun

2016-12-01

Assessment of the health and economic impacts of PM2.5 pollution is of great importance for urban air pollution prevention and control. In this study, we evaluate the damage of PM2.5 pollution using Beijing as an example. First, we use exposure-response functions to estimate the adverse health effects due to PM2.5 pollution. Then, the corresponding labour loss and excess medical expenditure are computed as two conducting variables. Finally, different from the conventional valuation methods, this paper introduces the two conducting variables into the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts on sectors and the whole economic system caused by PM2.5 pollution. The results show that, substantial health effects of the residents in Beijing from PM2.5 pollution occurred in 2013, including 20,043 premature deaths and about one million other related medical cases. Correspondingly, using the 2010 social accounting data, Beijing gross domestic product loss due to the health impact of PM2.5 pollution is estimated as 1286.97 (95% CI: 488.58-1936.33) million RMB. This demonstrates that PM2.5 pollution not only has adverse health effects, but also brings huge economic loss.

COMPUTATIONAL MODELS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

OpenAIRE

Monendra Grover; Rajesh Kumar; Tapan Kumar Mondal; S. Rajkumar

2011-01-01

Genetic erosion is a serious problem and computational models have been developed to prevent it. The computational modeling in this field not only includes (terrestrial) reserve design, but also decision modeling for related problems such as habitat restoration, marine reserve design, and nonreserve approaches to conservation management. Models have been formulated for evaluating tradeoffs between socioeconomic, biophysical, and spatial criteria in establishing marine reserves. The percolatio...

Ranked retrieval of Computational Biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Henkel, Ron; Endler, Lukas; Peters, Andre; Le Novère, Nicolas; Waltemath, Dagmar

2010-08-11

The study of biological systems demands computational support. If targeting a biological problem, the reuse of existing computational models can save time and effort. Deciding for potentially suitable models, however, becomes more challenging with the increasing number of computational models available, and even more when considering the models' growing complexity. Firstly, among a set of potential model candidates it is difficult to decide for the model that best suits ones needs. Secondly, it is hard to grasp the nature of an unknown model listed in a search result set, and to judge how well it fits for the particular problem one has in mind. Here we present an improved search approach for computational models of biological processes. It is based on existing retrieval and ranking methods from Information Retrieval. The approach incorporates annotations suggested by MIRIAM, and additional meta-information. It is now part of the search engine of BioModels Database, a standard repository for computational models. The introduced concept and implementation are, to our knowledge, the first application of Information Retrieval techniques on model search in Computational Systems Biology. Using the example of BioModels Database, it was shown that the approach is feasible and extends the current possibilities to search for relevant models. The advantages of our system over existing solutions are that we incorporate a rich set of meta-information, and that we provide the user with a relevance ranking of the models found for a query. Better search capabilities in model databases are expected to have a positive effect on the reuse of existing models.

An economic model of friendship and enmity for measuring social balance in networks

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyu-Min; Shin, Euncheol; You, Seungil

2017-12-01

We propose a dynamic economic model of networks where agents can be friends or enemies with one another. This is a decentralized relationship model in that agents decide whether to change their relationships so as to minimize their imbalanced triads. In this model, there is a single parameter, which we call social temperature, that captures the degree to which agents care about social balance in their relationships. We show that the global structure of relationship configuration converges to a unique stationary distribution. Using this stationary distribution, we characterize the maximum likelihood estimator of the social temperature parameter. Since the estimator is computationally challenging to calculate from real social network datasets, we provide a simple simulation algorithm and verify its performance with real social network datasets.

Value function in economic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

2017-11-01

Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

Secure cloud computing

CERN Document Server

Jajodia, Sushil; Samarati, Pierangela; Singhal, Anoop; Swarup, Vipin; Wang, Cliff

2014-01-01

This book presents a range of cloud computing security challenges and promising solution paths. The first two chapters focus on practical considerations of cloud computing. In Chapter 1, Chandramouli, Iorga, and Chokani describe the evolution of cloud computing and the current state of practice, followed by the challenges of cryptographic key management in the cloud. In Chapter 2, Chen and Sion present a dollar cost model of cloud computing and explore the economic viability of cloud computing with and without security mechanisms involving cryptographic mechanisms. The next two chapters addres

An economic and financial exploratory

OpenAIRE

Cincotti, S.; Sornette, D.; Treleaven, P.; Battiston, S.; Caldarelli, G.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.

2012-01-01

This paper describes the vision of a European Exploratory for economics and finance using an interdisciplinary consortium of economists, natural scientists, computer scientists and engineers, who will combine their expertise to address the enormous challenges of the 21st century. This Academic Public facility is intended for economic modelling, investigating all aspects of risk and stability, improving financial technology, and evaluating proposed regulatory and taxation changes. The European...

Economic Impacts of Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Agro-terrorism in the United States: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL; Rose, Adam [University of Southern California, Los Angeles; Bumsoo, Lee [University of Illinois

2013-01-01

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus has high agro-terrorism potential because it is contagious, can be easily transmitted via inanimate objects and can be spread by wind. An outbreak of FMD in developed countries results in massive slaughtering of animals (for disease control) and disruptions in meat supply chains and trade, with potentially large economic losses. Although the United States has been FMD-free since 1929, the potential of FMD as a deliberate terrorist weapon calls for estimates of the physical and economic damage that could result from an outbreak. This paper estimates the economic impacts of three alternative scenarios of potential FMD attacks using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the US economy. The three scenarios range from a small outbreak successfully contained within a state to a large multi-state attack resulting in slaughtering of 30 percent of the national livestock. Overall, the value of total output losses in our simulations range between $37 billion (0.15% of 2006 baseline economic output) and $228 billion (0.92%). Major impacts stem from the supply constraint on livestock due to massive animal slaughtering. As expected, the economic losses are heavily concentrated in agriculture and food manufacturing sectors, with losses ranging from $23 billion to $61 billion in the two industries.

Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schultz, O.

1993-01-01

Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

Computational Efficiency of Economic MPC for Power Systems Operation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Standardi, Laura; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2013-01-01

In this work, we propose an Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy to operate power systems that consist of independent power units. The controller balances the power supply and demand, minimizing production costs. The control problem is formulated as a linear program that is solved...

CMS computing model evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandi, C; Bonacorsi, D; Colling, D; Fisk, I; Girone, M

2014-01-01

The CMS Computing Model was developed and documented in 2004. Since then the model has evolved to be more flexible and to take advantage of new techniques, but many of the original concepts remain and are in active use. In this presentation we will discuss the changes planned for the restart of the LHC program in 2015. We will discuss the changes planning in the use and definition of the computing tiers that were defined with the MONARC project. We will present how we intend to use new services and infrastructure to provide more efficient and transparent access to the data. We will discuss the computing plans to make better use of the computing capacity by scheduling more of the processor nodes, making better use of the disk storage, and more intelligent use of the networking.

Computational biomechanics for medicine imaging, modeling and computing

CERN Document Server

Doyle, Barry; Wittek, Adam; Nielsen, Poul; Miller, Karol

2016-01-01

The Computational Biomechanics for Medicine titles provide an opportunity for specialists in computational biomechanics to present their latest methodologies and advancements. This volume comprises eighteen of the newest approaches and applications of computational biomechanics, from researchers in Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, Switzerland, Scotland, France and Russia. Some of the interesting topics discussed are: tailored computational models; traumatic brain injury; soft-tissue mechanics; medical image analysis; and clinically-relevant simulations. One of the greatest challenges facing the computational engineering community is to extend the success of computational mechanics to fields outside traditional engineering, in particular to biology, the biomedical sciences, and medicine. We hope the research presented within this book series will contribute to overcoming this grand challenge.

Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

OpenAIRE

DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

2017-01-01

While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

Applicability of genetic algorithms to parameter estimation of economic models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcel Ševela

2004-01-01

Full Text Available The paper concentrates on capability of genetic algorithms for parameter estimation of non-linear economic models. In the paper we test the ability of genetic algorithms to estimate of parameters of demand function for durable goods and simultaneously search for parameters of genetic algorithm that lead to maximum effectiveness of the computation algorithm. The genetic algorithms connect deterministic iterative computation methods with stochastic methods. In the genteic aůgorithm approach each possible solution is represented by one individual, those life and lifes of all generations of individuals run under a few parameter of genetic algorithm. Our simulations resulted in optimal mutation rate of 15% of all bits in chromosomes, optimal elitism rate 20%. We can not set the optimal extend of generation, because it proves positive correlation with effectiveness of genetic algorithm in all range under research, but its impact is degreasing. The used genetic algorithm was sensitive to mutation rate at most, than to extend of generation. The sensitivity to elitism rate is not so strong.

The IceCube Computing Infrastructure Model

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2012-01-01

Besides the big LHC experiments a number of mid-size experiments is coming online which need to define new computing models to meet the demands on processing and storage requirements of those experiments. We present the hybrid computing model of IceCube which leverages GRID models with a more flexible direct user model as an example of a possible solution. In IceCube a central datacenter at UW-Madison servers as Tier-0 with a single Tier-1 datacenter at DESY Zeuthen. We describe the setup of the IceCube computing infrastructure and report on our experience in successfully provisioning the IceCube computing needs.

An economic model for seaborne oil trade

OpenAIRE

Hong, Kian-Wah

1996-01-01

This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

Methodical Approaches to Teaching of Computer Modeling in Computer Science Course

Science.gov (United States)

Rakhimzhanova, B. Lyazzat; Issabayeva, N. Darazha; Khakimova, Tiyshtik; Bolyskhanova, J. Madina

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to justify of the formation technique of representation of modeling methodology at computer science lessons. The necessity of studying computer modeling is that the current trends of strengthening of general education and worldview functions of computer science define the necessity of additional research of the…

Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

Science.gov (United States)

Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

2014-01-01

The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

2014-05-01

The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

PREPS2 - a PC-based computer program for performing economic analysis of capital projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blake, M.W.; Brand, D.O.; Chastain, E.T.; Johnson, E.D.

1990-01-01

In these times of increased spending to finance new capacity and to meet clean air act legislation, many electric utilities are giving a high priority to controlling capital expenditures at existing generating facilities. Determining the level of capital expenditures which are economically justified is very difficult; units which have higher capacity factors are worth more to the utility. Therefore, the utility can more readily justify higher capital expenditures to improve or maintain reliability and heat rate than on units with lower capacity factors. This paper describes a PC-based computer program (PREPS2) which performs an economic analysis of individual capital projects. The program incorporates tables which describe the worth to the system of making improvements in each unit. This computer program is currently being used by the six Southern Company operating companies to evaluate all production capital projects over $50,000. Approximately 500 projects representing about $300 million are being analyzed each year

Design and application of a technologically explicit hybrid energy-economy policy model with micro and macro economic dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Bataille, Christopher G. F.

2005-11-01

Are further energy efficiency gains, or more recently greenhouse gas reductions, expensive or cheap? Analysts provide conflicting advice to policy makers based on divergent modelling perspectives, a 'top-down/bottom-up debate' in which economists use equation based models that equilibrate markets by maximizing consumer welfare, and technologists use technology simulation models that minimize the financial cost of providing energy services. This thesis summarizes a long term research project to find a middle ground between these two positions that is more useful to policy makers. Starting with the individual components of a behaviourally realistic and technologically explicit simulation model (ISTUM---Inter Sectoral Technology Use Model), or "hybrid", the individual sectors of the economy are linked using a framework of micro and macro economic feedbacks. These feedbacks are taken from the economic theory that informs the computable general equilibrium (CGE) family of models. Speaking in the languages of both economists and engineers, the resulting "physical" equilibrium model of Canada (CIMS---Canadian Integrated Modeling System), equilibrates energy and end-product markets, including imports and exports, for seven regions and 15 economic sectors, including primary industry, manufacturing, transportation, commerce, residences, governmental infrastructure and the energy supply sectors. Several different policy experiments demonstrate the value-added of the model and how its results compare to top-down and bottom-up practice. In general, the results show that technical adjustments make up about half the response to simulated energy policy, and macroeconomic demand adjustments the other half. Induced technical adjustments predominate with minor policies, while the importance of macroeconomic demand adjustment increases with the strength of the policy. Results are also shown for an experiment to derive estimates of future elasticity of substitution (ESUB) and

Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sherstennykov Yurii V.

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

Dynamic model of minimax control over economic security state of the region in the presence of risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey Fedorovich Shorikov

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Investigation and solution of management of economic security state in the region (MESSR requires development of a dynamic economic-mathematical model that takes into account the presence of control actions, uncontrolled parameters (risk modeling errors, etc. and availability of information deficit. At the same time, the existing approaches to solving such problems are based primarily on static models and the use of stochastic modeling of the device, which is required for the application of knowledge of the probability characteristics of the main model parameters and special conditions for the realization of the process. We should note that to use the apparatus of stochastic modeling, very strict conditions are required, which in practice are usually not feasible in advance In this paper, we propose to use a deterministic approach for modeling and solving the original problem in the form of a dynamic programming problem of minimax control (optimization of a guaranteed result MESSR at the determined point of time, taking into account the availability of risks of deterministic and stochastic nature (combined risks model. At thesametime, under therisks in thesocial and economic system we understand thefactors that negatively catastrophically affect the results of the reviewed processes inside it. For an effective use, a technique of prediction and assessment of time rows and stochastic risks in MESSR optimization process is presented, which can serve as a basis for the development of appropriate computer software. To solve the problem of program minimax control MESSR in the presence of risks, we propose a method which is reduced to the realization of a finite number of solutions of linear and convex mathematical programming and discrete optimization problem. The proposed method makes it possible to develop efficient numerical procedures to implement computer simulation of the dynamics of the problem, build program minimax control and gain optimal

The economic impact of public resource supply constraints in northeast Oregon.

Science.gov (United States)

Edward C Waters; David W. Holland; Richard W. Haynes

1977-01-01

Traditional, fixed-price (input-output) economic models provide a useful framework for conceptualizing links in a regional economy. Apparent shortcomings in these models, however, can severely restrict our ability to deduce valid prescriptions for public policy and economic development. A more efficient approach using regional computable general equilibrium (CGE)...

Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L.V. Kravtsova

2008-06-01

Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

OpenAIRE

Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

2014-01-01

The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

Sierra toolkit computational mesh conceptual model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baur, David G.; Edwards, Harold Carter; Cochran, William K.; Williams, Alan B.; Sjaardema, Gregory D.

2010-01-01

The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh is a software library intended to support massively parallel multi-physics computations on dynamically changing unstructured meshes. This domain of intended use is inherently complex due to distributed memory parallelism, parallel scalability, heterogeneity of physics, heterogeneous discretization of an unstructured mesh, and runtime adaptation of the mesh. Management of this inherent complexity begins with a conceptual analysis and modeling of this domain of intended use; i.e., development of a domain model. The Sierra Toolkit computational mesh software library is designed and implemented based upon this domain model. Software developers using, maintaining, or extending the Sierra Toolkit computational mesh library must be familiar with the concepts/domain model presented in this report.

PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

Economic effects on taxing CO{sub 2} emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haaparanta, P [Helsinki School of Economics (Finland); Jerkkola, J; Pohjola, J [The Research Inst. of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki (Finland)

1997-12-31

The CO{sub 2} emissions can be reduced by using economic instruments, like carbon tax. This project included two specific questions related to CO{sub 2} taxation. First one was the economic effects of increasing CO{sub 2} tax and decreasing other taxes. Second was the economic adjustment costs of reducing net emissions instead of gross emissions. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used in this analysis. The study was taken place in Helsinki School of Economics

Economic effects on taxing CO{sub 2} emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haaparanta, P. [Helsinki School of Economics (Finland); Jerkkola, J.; Pohjola, J. [The Research Inst. of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki (Finland)

1996-12-31

The CO{sub 2} emissions can be reduced by using economic instruments, like carbon tax. This project included two specific questions related to CO{sub 2} taxation. First one was the economic effects of increasing CO{sub 2} tax and decreasing other taxes. Second was the economic adjustment costs of reducing net emissions instead of gross emissions. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used in this analysis. The study was taken place in Helsinki School of Economics

OBJECT ORIENTED MODELLING, A MODELLING METHOD OF AN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION ACTIVITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

TĂNĂSESCU ANA

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Now, most economic organizations use different information systems types in order to facilitate their activity. There are different methodologies, methods and techniques that can be used to design information systems. In this paper, I propose to present the advantages of using the object oriented modelling at the information system design of an economic organization. Thus, I have modelled the activity of a photo studio, using Visual Paradigm for UML as a modelling tool. For this purpose, I have identified the use cases for the analyzed system and I have presented the use case diagram. I have, also, realized the system static and dynamic modelling, through the most known UML diagrams.

FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

2011-01-01

Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

Modelling computer networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Max, G

2011-01-01

Traffic models in computer networks can be described as a complicated system. These systems show non-linear features and to simulate behaviours of these systems are also difficult. Before implementing network equipments users wants to know capability of their computer network. They do not want the servers to be overloaded during temporary traffic peaks when more requests arrive than the server is designed for. As a starting point for our study a non-linear system model of network traffic is established to exam behaviour of the network planned. The paper presents setting up a non-linear simulation model that helps us to observe dataflow problems of the networks. This simple model captures the relationship between the competing traffic and the input and output dataflow. In this paper, we also focus on measuring the bottleneck of the network, which was defined as the difference between the link capacity and the competing traffic volume on the link that limits end-to-end throughput. We validate the model using measurements on a working network. The results show that the initial model estimates well main behaviours and critical parameters of the network. Based on this study, we propose to develop a new algorithm, which experimentally determines and predict the available parameters of the network modelled.

Mathematical Modeling and Computational Thinking

Science.gov (United States)

Sanford, John F.; Naidu, Jaideep T.

2017-01-01

The paper argues that mathematical modeling is the essence of computational thinking. Learning a computer language is a valuable assistance in learning logical thinking but of less assistance when learning problem-solving skills. The paper is third in a series and presents some examples of mathematical modeling using spreadsheets at an advanced…

The Effect of Units Lost Due to Deterioration in Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (FEOQ Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pattnaik

2013-07-01

Full Text Available For several decades, the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ model and its variations have received much attention from researchers. Recently, there has been an investigation into an EOQ model incorporating effect of units lost due to deterioration in infinite planning horizon with crisp decision environment. Accounting for holding and ordering cost, as has traditionally been the case of modeling inventory systems in fuzzy environment are investigated which are not precisely known and defined on a bounded interval of real numbers. The question is how reliable are the EOQ models when items stocked deteriorate one time. This paper introduces Fuzzy Economic Order Quantity (FEOQ model in which it assumes that units lost due to deterioration is included in the objective function to properly model the problem in finite planning horizon. The numerical analysis shows that an appropriate fuzzy policy can benefit the retailer and that is significant, especially for deteriorating items is shown to be superior to that of crisp decision making. A computational algorithm using LINGO 13.0 and MATLAB (R2009a software are developed to find the optimal solution. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution is also studied and managerial insights are drawn which shows the influence of key model parameters.

Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pinhel, A.C.C.

1992-01-01

A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

Economical modelling of social and moral norms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nyborg, Karine

2001-01-01

Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

Cloud Computing Application for Romanian SMEs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pistol, Luminiţa

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article studies the current economical state of Romanian SMEs and the utility of cloud computing technologies in the process of sustainable open innovation. The study is based on a supply chain adapted for SMEs, on a model of innovation within a network business environment and on a decision tree dedicated for SMEs when starting a new project. Taking into account the statements of the article, a new framework of cloud computing economics can be developed.

The computational form of craving is a selective multiplication of economic value.

Science.gov (United States)

Konova, Anna B; Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W

2018-04-17

Craving is thought to be a specific desire state that biases choice toward the desired object, be it chocolate or drugs. A vast majority of people report having experienced craving of some kind. In its pathological form craving contributes to health outcomes in addiction and obesity. Yet despite its ubiquity and clinical relevance we still lack a basic neurocomputational understanding of craving. Here, using an instantaneous measure of subjective valuation and selective cue exposure, we identify a behavioral signature of a food craving-like state and advance a computational framework for understanding how this state might transform valuation to bias choice. We find desire induced by exposure to a specific high-calorie, high-fat/sugar snack good is expressed in subjects' momentary willingness to pay for this good. This effect is selective but not exclusive to the exposed good; rather, we find it generalizes to nonexposed goods in proportion to their subjective attribute similarity to the exposed ones. A second manipulation of reward size (number of snack units available for purchase) further suggested that a multiplicative gain mechanism supports the transformation of valuation during laboratory craving. These findings help explain how real-world food craving can result in behaviors inconsistent with preferences expressed in the absence of craving and open a path for the computational modeling of craving-like phenomena using a simple and repeatable experimental tool for assessing subjective states in economic terms. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

LHCb computing model

CERN Document Server

Frank, M; Pacheco, Andreu

1998-01-01

This document is a first attempt to describe the LHCb computing model. The CPU power needed to process data for the event filter and reconstruction is estimated to be 2.2 \\Theta 106 MIPS. This will be installed at the experiment and will be reused during non data-taking periods for reprocessing. The maximal I/O of these activities is estimated to be around 40 MB/s.We have studied three basic models concerning the placement of the CPU resources for the other computing activities, Monte Carlo-simulation (1:4 \\Theta 106 MIPS) and physics analysis (0:5 \\Theta 106 MIPS): CPU resources may either be located at the physicist's homelab, national computer centres (Regional Centres) or at CERN.The CPU resources foreseen for analysis are sufficient to allow 100 concurrent analyses. It is assumed that physicists will work in physics groups that produce analysis data at an average rate of 4.2 MB/s or 11 TB per month. However, producing these group analysis data requires reading capabilities of 660 MB/s. It is further assu...

40 CFR 194.23 - Models and computer codes.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Models and computer codes. 194.23... General Requirements § 194.23 Models and computer codes. (a) Any compliance application shall include: (1... obtain stable solutions; (iv) Computer models accurately implement the numerical models; i.e., computer...

A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Trust Models in Ubiquitous Computing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mogens; Krukow, Karl; Sassone, Vladimiro

2008-01-01

We recapture some of the arguments for trust-based technologies in ubiquitous computing, followed by a brief survey of some of the models of trust that have been introduced in this respect. Based on this, we argue for the need of more formal and foundational trust models.......We recapture some of the arguments for trust-based technologies in ubiquitous computing, followed by a brief survey of some of the models of trust that have been introduced in this respect. Based on this, we argue for the need of more formal and foundational trust models....

Introducing Seismic Tomography with Computational Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Neves, R.; Neves, M. L.; Teodoro, V.

2011-12-01

Learning seismic tomography principles and techniques involves advanced physical and computational knowledge. In depth learning of such computational skills is a difficult cognitive process that requires a strong background in physics, mathematics and computer programming. The corresponding learning environments and pedagogic methodologies should then involve sets of computational modelling activities with computer software systems which allow students the possibility to improve their mathematical or programming knowledge and simultaneously focus on the learning of seismic wave propagation and inverse theory. To reduce the level of cognitive opacity associated with mathematical or programming knowledge, several computer modelling systems have already been developed (Neves & Teodoro, 2010). Among such systems, Modellus is particularly well suited to achieve this goal because it is a domain general environment for explorative and expressive modelling with the following main advantages: 1) an easy and intuitive creation of mathematical models using just standard mathematical notation; 2) the simultaneous exploration of images, tables, graphs and object animations; 3) the attribution of mathematical properties expressed in the models to animated objects; and finally 4) the computation and display of mathematical quantities obtained from the analysis of images and graphs. Here we describe virtual simulations and educational exercises which enable students an easy grasp of the fundamental of seismic tomography. The simulations make the lecture more interactive and allow students the possibility to overcome their lack of advanced mathematical or programming knowledge and focus on the learning of seismological concepts and processes taking advantage of basic scientific computation methods and tools.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

2015-04-01

Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

Quantum vertex model for reversible classical computing.

Science.gov (United States)

Chamon, C; Mucciolo, E R; Ruckenstein, A E; Yang, Z-C

2017-05-12

Mappings of classical computation onto statistical mechanics models have led to remarkable successes in addressing some complex computational problems. However, such mappings display thermodynamic phase transitions that may prevent reaching solution even for easy problems known to be solvable in polynomial time. Here we map universal reversible classical computations onto a planar vertex model that exhibits no bulk classical thermodynamic phase transition, independent of the computational circuit. Within our approach the solution of the computation is encoded in the ground state of the vertex model and its complexity is reflected in the dynamics of the relaxation of the system to its ground state. We use thermal annealing with and without 'learning' to explore typical computational problems. We also construct a mapping of the vertex model into the Chimera architecture of the D-Wave machine, initiating an approach to reversible classical computation based on state-of-the-art implementations of quantum annealing.

Incorporating transportation network modeling tools within transportation economic impact studies of disasters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Wen

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Transportation system disruption due to a disaster results in "ripple effects" throughout the entire transportation system of a metropolitan region. Many researchers have focused on the economic costs of transportation system disruptions in transportation-related industries, specifïcally within commerce and logistics, in the assessment of the regional economic costs. However, the foundation of an assessment of the regional economic costs of a disaster needs to include the evaluation of consumer surplus in addition to the direct cost for reconstruction of the regional transportation system. The objective of this study is to propose a method to estimate the regional consumer surplus based on indirect economic costs of a disaster on intermodal transportation systems in the context of diverting vehicles and trains. The computational methods used to assess the regional indirect economic costs sustained by the highway and railroad system can utilize readily available state departments of transportation (DOTs and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs traffic models allowing prioritization of regional recovery plans after a disaster and strengthening of infrastructure before a disaster. Hurricane Katrina is one of the most devastating hurricanes in the history of the United States. Due to the significance of Hurricane Katrina, a case study is presented to evaluate consumer surplus in the Gulf Coast Region of Mississippi. Results from the case study indicate the costs of rerouting and congestion delays in the regional highway system and the rent costs of right-of-way in the regional railroad system are major factors of the indirect costs in the consumer surplus.

Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

1979-06-01

This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-09-01

The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

GRAVTool, a Package to Compute Geoid Model by Remove-Compute-Restore Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Marotta, G. S.; Blitzkow, D.; Vidotti, R. M.

2015-12-01

Currently, there are several methods to determine geoid models. They can be based on terrestrial gravity data, geopotential coefficients, astro-geodetic data or a combination of them. Among the techniques to compute a precise geoid model, the Remove-Compute-Restore (RCR) has been widely applied. It considers short, medium and long wavelengths derived from altitude data provided by Digital Terrain Models (DTM), terrestrial gravity data and global geopotential coefficients, respectively. In order to apply this technique, it is necessary to create procedures that compute gravity anomalies and geoid models, by the integration of different wavelengths, and that adjust these models to one local vertical datum. This research presents a developed package called GRAVTool based on MATLAB software to compute local geoid models by RCR technique and its application in a study area. The studied area comprehends the federal district of Brazil, with ~6000 km², wavy relief, heights varying from 600 m to 1340 m, located between the coordinates 48.25ºW, 15.45ºS and 47.33ºW, 16.06ºS. The results of the numerical example on the studied area show the local geoid model computed by the GRAVTool package (Figure), using 1377 terrestrial gravity data, SRTM data with 3 arc second of resolution, and geopotential coefficients of the EIGEN-6C4 model to degree 360. The accuracy of the computed model (σ = ± 0.071 m, RMS = 0.069 m, maximum = 0.178 m and minimum = -0.123 m) matches the uncertainty (σ =± 0.073) of 21 points randomly spaced where the geoid was computed by geometrical leveling technique supported by positioning GNSS. The results were also better than those achieved by Brazilian official regional geoid model (σ = ± 0.099 m, RMS = 0.208 m, maximum = 0.419 m and minimum = -0.040 m).

Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Machado, José A. F.

2010-05-01

The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

Mapping the Most Significant Computer Hacking Events to a Temporal Computer Attack Model

OpenAIRE

Heerden , Renier ,; Pieterse , Heloise; Irwin , Barry

2012-01-01

Part 4: Section 3: ICT for Peace and War; International audience; This paper presents eight of the most significant computer hacking events (also known as computer attacks). These events were selected because of their unique impact, methodology, or other properties. A temporal computer attack model is presented that can be used to model computer based attacks. This model consists of the following stages: Target Identification, Reconnaissance, Attack, and Post-Attack Reconnaissance stages. The...

Sustainability and economics: The Adirondack Park experience, a forest economic-ecological model, and solar energy policy

Science.gov (United States)

Erickson, Jon David

The long-term sustainability of human communities will depend on our relationship with regional environments, our maintenance of renewable resources, and our successful disengagement from nonrenewable energy dependence. This dissertation investigates sustainability at these three levels, following a critical analysis of sustainability and economics. At the regional environment level, the Adirondack Park of New York State is analyzed as a potential model of sustainable development. A set of initial and ongoing conditions are presented that both emerge from and support a model of sustainability in the Adirondacks. From these conditions, a clearer picture emerges of the definition of regional sustainability, consequences of its adoption, and lessons from its application. Next, an economic-ecological model of the northern hardwood forest ecosystem is developed. The model integrates economic theory and intertemporal ecological concepts, linking current harvest decisions with future forest growth, financial value, and ecosystem stability. The results indicate very different economic and ecological outcomes by varying opportunity cost and ecosystem recovery assumptions, and suggest a positive benefit to ecological recovery in the forest rotation decision of the profit maximizing manager. The last section investigates the motives, economics, and international development implications of renewable energy (specifically photovoltaic technology) in rural electrification and technology transfer, drawing on research in the Dominican Republic. The implications of subsidizing a photovoltaic market versus investing in basic research are explored.

Using hydro-economic modelling to investigate trade-offs between ecological and economic water management objectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riegels, Niels

is that land and water use levels predicted by the two approaches are essentially the same. The prediction that high-value irrigated crops will not replace low-value crops is not unreasonable given behavior observed in the baseline data set and highlights the limitations of using economic models calibrated......In regions where water scarcity exists, economic analysis can help identify ways to increase benefits of water use. The European Union’s Water Framework Directive (WFD), is an example of a law that requires the use of economic principles, approaches, and instruments in water resources management....... One of these instruments is water pricing. This study develops an approach for implementing the water pricing guidelines of the WFD at the river basin scale and then uses hydro-economic modelling to estimate the impacts of applying these guidelines. The central purpose of the WFD is the protection...

Microeconomic theory and computation applying the maxima open-source computer algebra system

CERN Document Server

Hammock, Michael R

2014-01-01

This book provides a step-by-step tutorial for using Maxima, an open-source multi-platform computer algebra system, to examine the economic relationships that form the core of microeconomics in a way that complements traditional modeling techniques.

An economic evaluation of solar radiation management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan [CICERO — Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (Norway); Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene [Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo (Norway); Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)

2015-11-01

Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative.

An economic evaluation of solar radiation management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aaheim, Asbjørn; Romstad, Bård; Wei, Taoyuan; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Schmidt, Hauke

2015-01-01

Economic evaluations of solar radiation management (SRM) usually assume that the temperature will be stabilized, with no economic impacts of climate change, but with possible side-effects. We know from experiments with climate models, however, that unlike emission control the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature, precipitation and wind conditions will change. Hence, SRM may have economic consequences under a stabilization of global mean temperature even if side-effects other than those related to the climatic responses are disregarded. This paper addresses the economic impacts of implementing two SRM technologies; stratospheric sulfur injection and marine cloud brightening. By the use of a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the economic impacts of climatic responses based on the results from two earth system models, MPI-ESM and NorESM. We find that under a moderately increasing greenhouse-gas concentration path, RCP4.5, the economic benefits of implementing climate engineering are small, and may become negative. Global GDP increases in three of the four experiments and all experiments include regions where the benefits from climate engineering are negative

Studying Economic Space: Synthesis of Balance and Game-Theoretic Methods of Modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Gennadyevna Zakharchenko

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The article introduces questions about development of models used to study economic space. The author proposes the model that combines balance and game-theoretic methods for estimating system effects of economic agents’ interactions in multi-level economic space. The model is applied to research interactions between economic agents that are spatially heterogeneous within the Russian Far East. In the model the economic space of region is considered in a territorial dimension (the first level of decomposing space and also in territorial and product dimensions (the second level of decomposing space. The paper shows the mechanism of system effects formation that exists in the economic space of region. The author estimates system effects, analyses the real allocation of these effects between economic agents and identifies three types of local industrial markets: with zero, positive and negative system effects

Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

2009-01-01

This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of a healthcare system for depressive disorders by implementing telemedicine: a health economic modeling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lokkerbol, Joran; Adema, Dirk; Cuijpers, Pim; Reynolds, Charles F; Schulz, Richard; Weehuizen, Rifka; Smit, Filip

2014-03-01

Depressive disorders are significant causes of disease burden and are associated with substantial economic costs. It is therefore important to design a healthcare system that can effectively manage depression at sustainable costs. This article computes the benefit-to-cost ratio of the current Dutch healthcare system for depression, and investigates whether offering more online preventive interventions improves the cost-effectiveness overall. A health economic (Markov) model was used to synthesize clinical and economic evidence and to compute population-level costs and effects of interventions. The model compared a base case scenario without preventive telemedicine and alternative scenarios with preventive telemedicine. The central outcome was the benefit-to-cost ratio, also known as return-on-investment (ROI). In terms of ROI, a healthcare system with preventive telemedicine for depressive disorders offers better value for money than a healthcare system without Internet-based prevention. Overall, the ROI increases from €1.45 ($1.72) in the base case scenario to €1.76 ($2.09) in the alternative scenario in which preventive telemedicine is offered. In a scenario in which the costs of offering preventive telemedicine are balanced by reducing the expenditures for curative interventions, ROI increases to €1.77 ($2.10), while keeping the healthcare budget constant. For a healthcare system for depressive disorders to remain economically sustainable, its cost-benefit ratio needs to be improved. Offering preventive telemedicine at a large scale is likely to introduce such an improvement. Copyright © 2014 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Economic modeling of surgical disease: a measure of public health interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Corlew, D Scott

2013-07-01

The measurement of the burden of disease and the interventions that address that burden can be done in various units. Reducing these measures to the common denominator of economic units (i.e., currency) enables comparison with other health entities, interventions, and even other fields. Economic assessment is complex, however, because of the multifactorial components of what constitutes health and what constitutes health interventions, as well as the coupling of those data to economic means. To perform economic modeling in a meaningful manner, it is necessary to: (1) define the health problem to be addressed; (2) define the intervention to be assessed; (3) define a measure of the effect of the health entity with and without the intervention (which includes defining the counterfactual); and (4) determine the appropriate method of converting the health effect to economics. This paper discusses technical aspects of how economic modeling can be done both of disease entities and of interventions. Two examples of economic modeling applied to surgical problems are then given.

Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Nobre, AM

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

1993-12-01

In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

Science.gov (United States)

Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

Models of parallel computation :a survey and classification

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

ZHANG Yunquan; CHEN Guoliang; SUN Guangzhong; MIAO Qiankun

2007-01-01

In this paper,the state-of-the-art parallel computational model research is reviewed.We will introduce various models that were developed during the past decades.According to their targeting architecture features,especially memory organization,we classify these parallel computational models into three generations.These models and their characteristics are discussed based on three generations classification.We believe that with the ever increasing speed gap between the CPU and memory systems,incorporating non-uniform memory hierarchy into computational models will become unavoidable.With the emergence of multi-core CPUs,the parallelism hierarchy of current computing platforms becomes more and more complicated.Describing this complicated parallelism hierarchy in future computational models becomes more and more important.A semi-automatic toolkit that can extract model parameters and their values on real computers can reduce the model analysis complexity,thus allowing more complicated models with more parameters to be adopted.Hierarchical memory and hierarchical parallelism will be two very important features that should be considered in future model design and research.

Linking Simple Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its stru....... Further fundamental extensions and advances to more sophisticated theory models, such as those related to dynamics and expectations (in the structural relations) are left for future papers......This paper attempts to clarify the connection between simple economic theory models and the approach of the Cointegrated Vector-Auto-Regressive model (CVAR). By considering (stylized) examples of simple static equilibrium models, it is illustrated in detail, how the theoretical model and its......, it is demonstrated how other controversial hypotheses such as Rational Expectations can be formulated directly as restrictions on the CVAR-parameters. A simple example of a "Neoclassical synthetic" AS-AD model is also formulated. Finally, the partial- general equilibrium distinction is related to the CVAR as well...

Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

2011-01-01

opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

Computer model for ductile fracture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moran, B.; Reaugh, J. E.

1979-01-01

A computer model is described for predicting ductile fracture initiation and propagation. The computer fracture model is calibrated by simple and notched round-bar tension tests and a precracked compact tension test. The model is used to predict fracture initiation and propagation in a Charpy specimen and compare the results with experiments. The calibrated model provides a correlation between Charpy V-notch (CVN) fracture energy and any measure of fracture toughness, such as J/sub Ic/. A second simpler empirical correlation was obtained using the energy to initiate fracture in the Charpy specimen rather than total energy CVN, and compared the results with the empirical correlation of Rolfe and Novak

An Emotional Agent Model Based on Granular Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun Hu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Affective computing has a very important significance for fulfilling intelligent information processing and harmonious communication between human being and computers. A new model for emotional agent is proposed in this paper to make agent have the ability of handling emotions, based on the granular computing theory and the traditional BDI agent model. Firstly, a new emotion knowledge base based on granular computing for emotion expression is presented in the model. Secondly, a new emotional reasoning algorithm based on granular computing is proposed. Thirdly, a new emotional agent model based on granular computing is presented. Finally, based on the model, an emotional agent for patient assistant in hospital is realized, experiment results show that it is efficient to handle simple emotions.

The Fermilab central computing facility architectural model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicholls, J.

1989-01-01

The goal of the current Central Computing Upgrade at Fermilab is to create a computing environment that maximizes total productivity, particularly for high energy physics analysis. The Computing Department and the Next Computer Acquisition Committee decided upon a model which includes five components: an interactive front-end, a Large-Scale Scientific Computer (LSSC, a mainframe computing engine), a microprocessor farm system, a file server, and workstations. With the exception of the file server, all segments of this model are currently in production: a VAX/VMS cluster interactive front-end, an Amdahl VM Computing engine, ACP farms, and (primarily) VMS workstations. This paper will discuss the implementation of the Fermilab Central Computing Facility Architectural Model. Implications for Code Management in such a heterogeneous environment, including issues such as modularity and centrality, will be considered. Special emphasis will be placed on connectivity and communications between the front-end, LSSC, and workstations, as practiced at Fermilab. (orig.)

The Fermilab Central Computing Facility architectural model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nicholls, J.

1989-05-01

The goal of the current Central Computing Upgrade at Fermilab is to create a computing environment that maximizes total productivity, particularly for high energy physics analysis. The Computing Department and the Next Computer Acquisition Committee decided upon a model which includes five components: an interactive front end, a Large-Scale Scientific Computer (LSSC, a mainframe computing engine), a microprocessor farm system, a file server, and workstations. With the exception of the file server, all segments of this model are currently in production: a VAX/VMS Cluster interactive front end, an Amdahl VM computing engine, ACP farms, and (primarily) VMS workstations. This presentation will discuss the implementation of the Fermilab Central Computing Facility Architectural Model. Implications for Code Management in such a heterogeneous environment, including issues such as modularity and centrality, will be considered. Special emphasis will be placed on connectivity and communications between the front-end, LSSC, and workstations, as practiced at Fermilab. 2 figs

Opportunity for Realizing Ideal Computing System using Cloud Computing Model

OpenAIRE

Sreeramana Aithal; Vaikunth Pai T

2017-01-01

An ideal computing system is a computing system with ideal characteristics. The major components and their performance characteristics of such hypothetical system can be studied as a model with predicted input, output, system and environmental characteristics using the identified objectives of computing which can be used in any platform, any type of computing system, and for application automation, without making modifications in the form of structure, hardware, and software coding by an exte...

A physicist's model of computation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredkin, E.

1991-01-01

An attempt is presented to make a statement about what a computer is and how it works from the perspective of physics. The single observation that computation can be a reversible process allows for the same kind of insight into computing as was obtained by Carnot's discovery that heat engines could be modelled as reversible processes. It allows us to bring computation into the realm of physics, where the power of physics allows us to ask and answer questions that seemed intractable from the viewpoint of computer science. Strangely enough, this effort makes it clear why computers get cheaper every year. (author) 14 refs., 4 figs

Modelling, abstraction, and computation in systems biology: A view from computer science.

Science.gov (United States)

Melham, Tom

2013-04-01

Systems biology is centrally engaged with computational modelling across multiple scales and at many levels of abstraction. Formal modelling, precise and formalised abstraction relationships, and computation also lie at the heart of computer science--and over the past decade a growing number of computer scientists have been bringing their discipline's core intellectual and computational tools to bear on biology in fascinating new ways. This paper explores some of the apparent points of contact between the two fields, in the context of a multi-disciplinary discussion on conceptual foundations of systems biology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary Economic Assessment of KALIMER-600

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Kee-Hwan; Kim, Seung-Su; Hahn, Do-Hee

2008-01-01

The GIF(GEN IV International Forum) established an Economic Modelling Working Group(EMWG) in 2003 to create economic models and guidelines to facilitate in a future evaluation of the Generation IV nuclear energy systems and assess progress toward the GIF economic goals. These goals are to have a life cycle cost advantage over other energy sources, and to have a level of financial risk comparable to other energy projects. To do this, EMWG has been developed the G4-ECONS model, which is a generic EXCEL-based model for computation of the projected levelized unit electricity cost and/or levelized non-electricity unit product cost from GEN IV energy systems. KALIMER-600 has been developed as a new design concept based on the KALIMER-150 design. KALIMER-600 is a unique design concept which has a potential to achieve GEN IV technology goals even though there is a room for a design improvement in order to make the KALIMER-600 more competitive with future generation reactors. The objective of this study is to the assess economics of KALIMER-600 by using the G4-ECONS model

Petroleum Refinery Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model User Reference Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldberg, Marshall [MRG and Associates, Nevada City, CA (United States)

2013-12-31

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, developed through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), are user-friendly tools utilized to estimate the economic impacts at the local level of constructing and operating fuel and power generation projects for a range of conventional and renewable energy technologies. The JEDI Petroleum Refinery Model User Reference Guide was developed to assist users in employing and understanding the model. This guide provides information on the model's underlying methodology, as well as the parameters and references used to develop the cost data utilized in the model. This guide also provides basic instruction on model add-in features, operation of the model, and a discussion of how the results should be interpreted. Based on project-specific inputs from the user, the model estimates job creation, earning and output (total economic activity) for a given petroleum refinery. This includes the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts to the local economy associated with the refinery's construction and operation phases. Project cost and job data used in the model are derived from the most current cost estimations available. Local direct and indirect economic impacts are estimated using economic multipliers derived from IMPLAN software. By determining the regional economic impacts and job creation for a proposed refinery, the JEDI Petroleum Refinery model can be used to field questions about the added value refineries may bring to the local community.

Modelling Technical and Economic Parameters in Selection of Manufacturing Devices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naqib Daneshjo

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Sustainable science and technology development is also conditioned by continuous development of means of production which have a key role in structure of each production system. Mechanical nature of the means of production is complemented by controlling and electronic devices in context of intelligent industry. A selection of production machines for a technological process or technological project has so far been practically resolved, often only intuitively. With regard to increasing intelligence, the number of variable parameters that have to be considered when choosing a production device is also increasing. It is necessary to use computing techniques and decision making methods according to heuristic methods and more precise methodological procedures during the selection. The authors present an innovative model for optimization of technical and economic parameters in the selection of manufacturing devices for industry 4.0.

Growth structure and environment. 6 contributions to the macro economic model development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, Mette

1998-04-01

This thesis comprises 6 papers on the application of macro economic models to environmental problems. Interactions between the economic and the ecological models are elucidated and a description is given of a possible systematization of of the environmental-economic cycle within a macro economic model. Economic and technological limitations affecting the potential environmental advantages are discussed. In the second part of the thesis the general interdependence of production and consumption, and the various forms of environmental stress is analyzed. For this purpose an environment-related input-output model is presented, where for each industry there are given emissions and/or consumption of natural resources (so-called environmental coefficients), which are likely to originate from the activities of this industry. As examples of macro economic modelling,the nitrogen cycle in Denmark, environmental effects of consumer choice, use of building materials and emission due to energy generation and consumption etc. are analyzed. (EG) 146 refs

Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

2017-01-01

Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

Computational intelligence paradigms in economic and financial decision making

CERN Document Server

Resta, Marina

2016-01-01

The book focuses on a set of cutting-edge research techniques, highlighting the potential of soft computing tools in the analysis of economic and financial phenomena and in providing support for the decision-making process. In the first part the textbook presents a comprehensive and self-contained introduction to the field of self-organizing maps, elastic maps and social network analysis tools and provides necessary background material on the topic, including a discussion of more recent developments in the field. In the second part the focus is on practical applications, with particular attention paid to budgeting problems, market simulations, and decision-making processes, and on how such problems can be effectively managed by developing proper methods to automatically detect certain patterns. The book offers a valuable resource for both students and practitioners with an introductory-level college math background.

A statistical mechanical model of economics

Science.gov (United States)

Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

Computer-aided modeling framework for efficient model development, analysis and identification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heitzig, Martina; Sin, Gürkan; Sales Cruz, Mauricio

2011-01-01

Model-based computer aided product-process engineering has attained increased importance in a number of industries, including pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, polymers, biotechnology, food, energy, and water. This trend is set to continue due to the substantial benefits computer-aided...... methods introduce. The key prerequisite of computer-aided product-process engineering is however the availability of models of different types, forms, and application modes. The development of the models required for the systems under investigation tends to be a challenging and time-consuming task....... The methodology has been implemented into a computer-aided modeling framework, which combines expert skills, tools, and database connections that are required for the different steps of the model development work-flow with the goal to increase the efficiency of the modeling process. The framework has two main...

Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Bo

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

Elements of matrix modeling and computing with Matlab

CERN Document Server

White, Robert E

2006-01-01

As discrete models and computing have become more common, there is a need to study matrix computation and numerical linear algebra. Encompassing a diverse mathematical core, Elements of Matrix Modeling and Computing with MATLAB examines a variety of applications and their modeling processes, showing you how to develop matrix models and solve algebraic systems. Emphasizing practical skills, it creates a bridge from problems with two and three variables to more realistic problems that have additional variables. Elements of Matrix Modeling and Computing with MATLAB focuses on seven basic applicat

Vehicle - Bridge interaction, comparison of two computing models

Science.gov (United States)

Melcer, Jozef; Kuchárová, Daniela

2017-07-01

The paper presents the calculation of the bridge response on the effect of moving vehicle moves along the bridge with various velocities. The multi-body plane computing model of vehicle is adopted. The bridge computing models are created in two variants. One computing model represents the bridge as the Bernoulli-Euler beam with continuously distributed mass and the second one represents the bridge as the lumped mass model with 1 degrees of freedom. The mid-span bridge dynamic deflections are calculated for both computing models. The results are mutually compared and quantitative evaluated.

Computational models of complex systems

CERN Document Server

Dabbaghian, Vahid

2014-01-01

Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

2017-12-01

The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Pedagogical Note on Modeling the Economic Benefit of Emissions Abatement vs. the Economic Harm from Emissions

OpenAIRE

Christopher S. Decker

2012-01-01

The number of undergraduate-level textbooks on environmental economics has increased in recent years, but the textbook treatment of optimal emissions (abatement) varies markedly from textbook to textbook. In particular, there is no consensus as to whether to model the economic “bad” (i.e. emissions) or the economic “good” (abatement). This inconsistency can lead to some needless confusion for students introduced to environmental economics for the first time, particularly those students outsid...

Creation of 'Ukrytie' objects computer model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mazur, A.B.; Kotlyarov, V.T.; Ermolenko, A.I.; Podbereznyj, S.S.; Postil, S.D.; Shaptala, D.V.

1999-01-01

A partial computer model of the 'Ukrytie' object was created with the use of geoinformation technologies. The computer model makes it possible to carry out information support of the works related to the 'Ukrytie' object stabilization and its conversion into ecologically safe system for analyzing, forecasting and controlling the processes occurring in the 'Ukrytie' object. Elements and structures of the 'Ukryttia' object were designed and input into the model

Logistic map with memory from economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2017-01-01

A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

Modeling inputs to computer models used in risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.

1987-01-01

Computer models for various risk assessment applications are closely scrutinized both from the standpoint of questioning the correctness of the underlying mathematical model with respect to the process it is attempting to model and from the standpoint of verifying that the computer model correctly implements the underlying mathematical model. A process that receives less scrutiny, but is nonetheless of equal importance, concerns the individual and joint modeling of the inputs. This modeling effort clearly has a great impact on the credibility of results. Model characteristics are reviewed in this paper that have a direct bearing on the model input process and reasons are given for using probabilities-based modeling with the inputs. The authors also present ways to model distributions for individual inputs and multivariate input structures when dependence and other constraints may be present

Research on application of intelligent computation based LUCC model in urbanization process

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zemin

2007-06-01

of complexity science research and the conception of complexity feature to reveal the complexity features of LUCC research in urbanization process. Urban space system is a complex economic and cultural phenomenon as well as a social process, is the comprehensive characterization of urban society, economy and culture, and is a complex space system formed by society, economy and nature. It has dissipative structure characteristics, such as opening, dynamics, self-organization, non-balance etc. Traditional model cannot simulate these social, economic and natural driving forces of LUCC including main feedback relation from LUCC to driving force. 2. Establishment of Markov extended model of LUCC analog research in urbanization process. Firstly, use traditional LUCC research model to compute change speed of regional land use through calculating dynamic degree, exploitation degree and consumption degree of land use; use the theory of fuzzy set to rewrite the traditional Markov model, establish structure transfer matrix of land use, forecast and analyze dynamic change and development trend of land use, and present noticeable problems and corresponding measures in urbanization process according to research results. 3. Application of intelligent computation research and complexity science research method in LUCC analog model in urbanization process. On the basis of detailed elaboration of the theory and the model of LUCC research in urbanization process, analyze the problems of existing model used in LUCC research (namely, difficult to resolve many complexity phenomena in complex urban space system), discuss possible structure realization forms of LUCC analog research in combination with the theories of intelligent computation and complexity science research. Perform application analysis on BP artificial neural network and genetic algorithms of intelligent computation and CA model and MAS technology of complexity science research, discuss their theoretical origins and their

Fast Performance Computing Model for Smart Distributed Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Umair Younas

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs are becoming the more prominent solution compared to fossil fuels cars technology due to its significant role in Greenhouse Gas (GHG reduction, flexible storage, and ancillary service provision as a Distributed Generation (DG resource in Vehicle to Grid (V2G regulation mode. However, large-scale penetration of PEVs and growing demand of energy intensive Data Centers (DCs brings undesirable higher load peaks in electricity demand hence, impose supply-demand imbalance and threaten the reliability of wholesale and retail power market. In order to overcome the aforementioned challenges, the proposed research considers smart Distributed Power System (DPS comprising conventional sources, renewable energy, V2G regulation, and flexible storage energy resources. Moreover, price and incentive based Demand Response (DR programs are implemented to sustain the balance between net demand and available generating resources in the DPS. In addition, we adapted a novel strategy to implement the computational intensive jobs of the proposed DPS model including incoming load profiles, V2G regulation, battery State of Charge (SOC indication, and fast computation in decision based automated DR algorithm using Fast Performance Computing resources of DCs. In response, DPS provide economical and stable power to DCs under strict power quality constraints. Finally, the improved results are verified using case study of ISO California integrated with hybrid generation.

Economic and Environmental Effects of Public Transport Subsidy Policies: a Spatial CGE Model of Beijing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Xu

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Public transport plays an important role in the environment. This study established a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE model to examine the economic and environmental effects of public transport subsidy policies. The model includes firms, consumers, and traffic modules in one framework. Statistical data from Beijing were used in calibration to obtain benchmark equilibrium. Based on the equilibrium, simulations compared citywide social welfare, jobs-housing spatial population distribution, and environmental outputs under four subsidy policies: fare subsidy, cash grants, road expansion, and public transport speedup. Based on the results regarding the effects of public transport policies, conclusions can be drawn about which policies will have greater overall social influence and should therefore be used.

Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pishchulina E.S.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

Development and validation of rear impact computer simulation model of an adult manual transit wheelchair with a seated occupant.

Science.gov (United States)

Salipur, Zdravko; Bertocci, Gina

2010-01-01

It has been shown that ANSI WC19 transit wheelchairs that are crashworthy in frontal impact exhibit catastrophic failures in rear impact and may not be able to provide stable seating support and thus occupant protection for the wheelchair occupant. Thus far only limited sled test and computer simulation data have been available to study rear impact wheelchair safety. Computer modeling can be used as an economic and comprehensive tool to gain critical knowledge regarding wheelchair integrity and occupant safety. This study describes the development and validation of a computer model simulating an adult wheelchair-seated occupant subjected to a rear impact event. The model was developed in MADYMO and validated rigorously using the results of three similar sled tests conducted to specifications provided in the draft ISO/TC 173 standard. Outcomes from the model can provide critical wheelchair loading information to wheelchair and tiedown manufacturers, resulting in safer wheelchair designs for rear impact conditions. (c) 2009 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of hydrothermal-energy economics: related quantitative studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-08-01

A comparison of ten models for computing the cost of hydrothermal energy is presented. This comparison involved a detailed examination of a number of technical and economic parameters of the various quantitative models with the objective of identifying the most important parameters in the context of accurate estimates of cost of hydrothermal energy. Important features of various models, such as focus of study, applications, marked sectors covered, methodology, input data requirements, and output are compared in the document. A detailed sensitivity analysis of all the important engineering and economic parameters is carried out to determine the effect of non-consideration of individual parameters.

Models for regionalizing economic data and their applications within the scope of forensic disaster analyses

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Hanns-Maximilian; Wiens, rer. pol. Marcus, , Dr.; Schultmann, rer. pol. Frank, Prof. _., Dr.

2015-04-01

The impact of natural hazards on the economic system can be observed in many different regions all over the world. Once the local economic structure is hit by an event direct costs instantly occur. However, the disturbance on a local level (e.g. parts of city or industries along a river bank) might also cause monetary damages in other, indirectly affected sectors. If the impact of an event is strong, these damages are likely to cascade and spread even on an international scale (e.g. the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull and its impact on the automotive sector in Europe). In order to determine these special impacts, one has to gain insights into the directly hit economic structure before being able to calculate these side effects. Especially, regarding the development of a model used for near real-time forensic disaster analyses any simulation needs to be based on data that is rapidly available or easily to be computed. Therefore, we investigated commonly used or recently discussed methodologies for regionalizing economic data. Surprisingly, even for German federal states there is no official input-output data available that can be used, although it might provide detailed figures concerning economic interrelations between different industry sectors. In the case of highly developed countries, such as Germany, we focus on models for regionalizing nationwide input-output table which is usually available at the national statistical offices. However, when it comes to developing countries (e.g. South-East Asia) the data quality and availability is usually much poorer. In this case, other sources need to be found for the proper assessment of regional economic performance. We developed an indicator-based model that can fill this gap because of its flexibility regarding the level of aggregation and the composability of different input parameters. Our poster presentation brings up a literature review and a summary on potential models that seem to be useful for this specific task

Effects of economic interactions on credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatchett, J P L; Kuehn, R

2006-01-01

We study a credit-risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative and competitive business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in a pronounced enhancement of the value at risk computed for interacting economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts

Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

1998-01-01

This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

Computational modelling in fluid mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauguel, A.

1985-01-01

The modelling of the greatest part of environmental or industrial flow problems gives very similar types of equations. The considerable increase in computing capacity over the last ten years consequently allowed numerical models of growing complexity to be processed. The varied group of computer codes presented are now a complementary tool of experimental facilities to achieve studies in the field of fluid mechanics. Several codes applied in the nuclear field (reactors, cooling towers, exchangers, plumes...) are presented among others [fr

Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darya I. Ushkalova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Science.gov (United States)

Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

2003-01-01

Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

The Effects of Computer-Aided Instruction on Learning and Attitudes in Economic Principles Courses: Revised Results.

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, Mark

1979-01-01

Recounts statistical inaccuracies in an article on computer-aided instruction in economics courses on the college level. The article, published in the J. Econ. Ed (Fall 1978), erroneously placed one student in the TIPS group instead of the control group. Implications of this alteration are discussed. (DB)

A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Bin Zhang

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

1996-12-31

The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

Approach and development strategy for an agent-based model of economic confidence.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sprigg, James A.; Pryor, Richard J.; Jorgensen, Craig Reed

2004-08-01

We are extending the existing features of Aspen, a powerful economic modeling tool, and introducing new features to simulate the role of confidence in economic activity. The new model is built from a collection of autonomous agents that represent households, firms, and other relevant entities like financial exchanges and governmental authorities. We simultaneously model several interrelated markets, including those for labor, products, stocks, and bonds. We also model economic tradeoffs, such as decisions of households and firms regarding spending, savings, and investment. In this paper, we review some of the basic principles and model components and describe our approach and development strategy for emulating consumer, investor, and business confidence. The model of confidence is explored within the context of economic disruptions, such as those resulting from disasters or terrorist events.

Scaling predictive modeling in drug development with cloud computing.

Science.gov (United States)

Moghadam, Behrooz Torabi; Alvarsson, Jonathan; Holm, Marcus; Eklund, Martin; Carlsson, Lars; Spjuth, Ola

2015-01-26

Growing data sets with increased time for analysis is hampering predictive modeling in drug discovery. Model building can be carried out on high-performance computer clusters, but these can be expensive to purchase and maintain. We have evaluated ligand-based modeling on cloud computing resources where computations are parallelized and run on the Amazon Elastic Cloud. We trained models on open data sets of varying sizes for the end points logP and Ames mutagenicity and compare with model building parallelized on a traditional high-performance computing cluster. We show that while high-performance computing results in faster model building, the use of cloud computing resources is feasible for large data sets and scales well within cloud instances. An additional advantage of cloud computing is that the costs of predictive models can be easily quantified, and a choice can be made between speed and economy. The easy access to computational resources with no up-front investments makes cloud computing an attractive alternative for scientists, especially for those without access to a supercomputer, and our study shows that it enables cost-efficient modeling of large data sets on demand within reasonable time.

Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

2009-03-01

A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2014 capability development report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2016-05-11

This report provides an overview of the development of the NISAC CGE economic modeling capability since 2012. This capability enhances NISAC's economic modeling and analysis capabilities to answer a broader set of questions than possible with previous economic analysis capability. In particular, CGE modeling captures how the different sectors of the economy, for example, households, businesses, government, etc., interact to allocate resources in an economy and this approach captures these interactions when it is used to estimate the economic impacts of the kinds of events NISAC often analyzes.

Using ecosystem services to represent the environment in hydro-economic models

Science.gov (United States)

Momblanch, Andrea; Connor, Jeffery D.; Crossman, Neville D.; Paredes-Arquiola, Javier; Andreu, Joaquín

2016-07-01

Demand for water is expected to grow in line with global human population growth, but opportunities to augment supply are limited in many places due to resource limits and expected impacts of climate change. Hydro-economic models are often used to evaluate water resources management options, commonly with a goal of understanding how to maximise water use value and reduce conflicts among competing uses. The environment is now an important factor in decision making, which has resulted in its inclusion in hydro-economic models. We reviewed 95 studies applying hydro-economic models, and documented how the environment is represented in them and the methods they use to value environmental costs and benefits. We also sought out key gaps and inconsistencies in the treatment of the environment in hydro-economic models. We found that representation of environmental values of water is patchy in most applications, and there should be systematic consideration of the scope of environmental values to include and how they should be valued. We argue that the ecosystem services framework offers a systematic approach to identify the full range of environmental costs and benefits. The main challenges to more holistic representation of the environment in hydro-economic models are the current limits to understanding of ecological functions which relate physical, ecological and economic values and critical environmental thresholds; and the treatment of uncertainty.

Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

CERN Document Server

Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

2009-01-01

Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

Documentation and user guides for SPBLOB: a computer simulation model of the join population dynamics for loblolly pine and the southern pine beetle

Science.gov (United States)

John Bishir; James Roberds; Brian Strom; Xiaohai Wan

2009-01-01

SPLOB is a computer simulation model for the interaction between loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.), the economically most important forest crop in the United States, and the southern pine beetle (SPB: Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.), the major insect pest for this species. The model simulates loblolly pine stands from time of planting...

Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

GENERAL I ARTICLE. Computer Based ... universities, and later did system analysis, ... sonal computers (PC) and low cost software packages and tools. They can serve as useful learning experience through student projects. Models are .... Let us consider a numerical example: to calculate the velocity of a trainer aircraft ...

Computational multiscale modeling of intergranular cracking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonovski, Igor; Cizelj, Leon

2011-01-01

A novel computational approach for simulation of intergranular cracks in a polycrystalline aggregate is proposed in this paper. The computational model includes a topological model of the experimentally determined microstructure of a 400 μm diameter stainless steel wire and automatic finite element discretization of the grains and grain boundaries. The microstructure was spatially characterized by X-ray diffraction contrast tomography and contains 362 grains and some 1600 grain boundaries. Available constitutive models currently include isotropic elasticity for the grain interior and cohesive behavior with damage for the grain boundaries. The experimentally determined lattice orientations are employed to distinguish between resistant low energy and susceptible high energy grain boundaries in the model. The feasibility and performance of the proposed computational approach is demonstrated by simulating the onset and propagation of intergranular cracking. The preliminary numerical results are outlined and discussed.

Quantum Vertex Model for Reversible Classical Computing

Science.gov (United States)

Chamon, Claudio; Mucciolo, Eduardo; Ruckenstein, Andrei; Yang, Zhicheng

We present a planar vertex model that encodes the result of a universal reversible classical computation in its ground state. The approach involves Boolean variables (spins) placed on links of a two-dimensional lattice, with vertices representing logic gates. Large short-ranged interactions between at most two spins implement the operation of each gate. The lattice is anisotropic with one direction corresponding to computational time, and with transverse boundaries storing the computation's input and output. The model displays no finite temperature phase transitions, including no glass transitions, independent of circuit. The computational complexity is encoded in the scaling of the relaxation rate into the ground state with the system size. We use thermal annealing and a novel and more efficient heuristic \\x9Dannealing with learning to study various computational problems. To explore faster relaxation routes, we construct an explicit mapping of the vertex model into the Chimera architecture of the D-Wave machine, initiating a novel approach to reversible classical computation based on quantum annealing.

Direct regional energy/economic modeling (DREEM) design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hall, P.D.; Pleatsikas, C.J.

1979-10-01

This report summarizes an investigation into the use of regional and multiregional economic models for estimating the indirect and induced impacts of Federally-mandated energy policies. It includes an examination of alternative types of energy policies that can impact regional economies and the available analytical frameworks for measuring the magnitudes and spatial extents of these impacts. One such analytical system, the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), currently operational in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is chosen for more detailed investigation. The report summarizes the models capabilities for addressing various energy policy issues and then demonstrates the applicability of the model in specified contexts by developing appropriate input data for three scenarios. These scenarios concern the multi-state impacts of alternative coal-mining-development decisions, multi-regional impacts of macroeconomic change, and the comprehensive effects of an alternative national energy supply trajectory. On the basis of this experience, the capabilities of NRIES for analyzing energy-policy issues are summarized in a concluding chapter.

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

Computational study of nonlinear plasma waves. I. Simulation model and monochromatic wave propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuda, Y.; Crawford, F.W.

1975-01-01

An economical low-noise plasma simulation model originated by Denavit is applied to a series of problems associated with electrostatic wave propagation in a one-dimensional, collisionless, Maxwellian plasma, in the absence of magnetic field. The model is described and tested, first in the absence of an applied signal, and then with a small amplitude perturbation. These tests serve to establish the low-noise features of the model, and to verify the theoretical linear dispersion relation at wave energy levels as low as 10 -6 of the plasma thermal energy: Better quantitative results are obtained, for comparable computing time, than can be obtained by conventional particle simulation models, or direct solution of the Vlasov equation. The method is then used to study propagation of an essentially monochromatic plane wave. Results on amplitude oscillation and nonlinear frequency shift are compared with available theories

An Agent-Based Dynamic Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zining Yang

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the political economy of development, government policy choices at a single point in time can dramatically affect a country's development path by impacting fertility, economic and political decisions across generations. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling approaches in a complex adaptive system, a simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED is formalized to understand the relationship between politics, economic, and demography change at both macro and micro levels. First, a new political capacity measurement is used; and the system dynamics model is validated with the latest data. Second, the endogenous attributes are fused with non-cooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, macro and micro levels are connected with policy levers of political capacity and political instability by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This paper also explores the agent-based model's behavioral dynamics via simulation methods to identify paths towards economic development and political stability. This model demonstrates micro level human agency can act, react and interact, thus driving macro level dynamics, while macro structures provide political, social and economic environments that constrain or incentivize micro level human behavior.

Analysis of a Model for Computer Virus Transmission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Qin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Computer viruses remain a significant threat to computer networks. In this paper, the incorporation of new computers to the network and the removing of old computers from the network are considered. Meanwhile, the computers are equipped with antivirus software on the computer network. The computer virus model is established. Through the analysis of the model, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated. The stability conditions of the equilibria are derived. To illustrate our theoretical analysis, some numerical simulations are also included. The results provide a theoretical basis to control the spread of computer virus.

Biocellion: accelerating computer simulation of multicellular biological system models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Seunghwa; Kahan, Simon; McDermott, Jason; Flann, Nicholas; Shmulevich, Ilya

2014-11-01

Biological system behaviors are often the outcome of complex interactions among a large number of cells and their biotic and abiotic environment. Computational biologists attempt to understand, predict and manipulate biological system behavior through mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Discrete agent-based modeling (in combination with high-resolution grids to model the extracellular environment) is a popular approach for building biological system models. However, the computational complexity of this approach forces computational biologists to resort to coarser resolution approaches to simulate large biological systems. High-performance parallel computers have the potential to address the computing challenge, but writing efficient software for parallel computers is difficult and time-consuming. We have developed Biocellion, a high-performance software framework, to solve this computing challenge using parallel computers. To support a wide range of multicellular biological system models, Biocellion asks users to provide their model specifics by filling the function body of pre-defined model routines. Using Biocellion, modelers without parallel computing expertise can efficiently exploit parallel computers with less effort than writing sequential programs from scratch. We simulate cell sorting, microbial patterning and a bacterial system in soil aggregate as case studies. Biocellion runs on x86 compatible systems with the 64 bit Linux operating system and is freely available for academic use. Visit http://biocellion.com for additional information. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Notions of similarity for computational biology models

KAUST Repository

Waltemath, Dagmar

2016-03-21

Computational models used in biology are rapidly increasing in complexity, size, and numbers. To build such large models, researchers need to rely on software tools for model retrieval, model combination, and version control. These tools need to be able to quantify the differences and similarities between computational models. However, depending on the specific application, the notion of similarity may greatly vary. A general notion of model similarity, applicable to various types of models, is still missing. Here, we introduce a general notion of quantitative model similarities, survey the use of existing model comparison methods in model building and management, and discuss potential applications of model comparison. To frame model comparison as a general problem, we describe a theoretical approach to defining and computing similarities based on different model aspects. Potentially relevant aspects of a model comprise its references to biological entities, network structure, mathematical equations and parameters, and dynamic behaviour. Future similarity measures could combine these model aspects in flexible, problem-specific ways in order to mimic users\\' intuition about model similarity, and to support complex model searches in databases.

Notions of similarity for computational biology models

KAUST Repository

Waltemath, Dagmar; Henkel, Ron; Hoehndorf, Robert; Kacprowski, Tim; Knuepfer, Christian; Liebermeister, Wolfram

2016-01-01

Computational models used in biology are rapidly increasing in complexity, size, and numbers. To build such large models, researchers need to rely on software tools for model retrieval, model combination, and version control. These tools need to be able to quantify the differences and similarities between computational models. However, depending on the specific application, the notion of similarity may greatly vary. A general notion of model similarity, applicable to various types of models, is still missing. Here, we introduce a general notion of quantitative model similarities, survey the use of existing model comparison methods in model building and management, and discuss potential applications of model comparison. To frame model comparison as a general problem, we describe a theoretical approach to defining and computing similarities based on different model aspects. Potentially relevant aspects of a model comprise its references to biological entities, network structure, mathematical equations and parameters, and dynamic behaviour. Future similarity measures could combine these model aspects in flexible, problem-specific ways in order to mimic users' intuition about model similarity, and to support complex model searches in databases.

A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

2004-01-14

Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Yonghui; Han, Dongmei; Dai, Weihui

2014-01-01

The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP) neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market. PMID:24782659

Modeling and Computing of Stock Index Forecasting Based on Neural Network and Markov Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonghui Dai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The stock index reflects the fluctuation of the stock market. For a long time, there have been a lot of researches on the forecast of stock index. However, the traditional method is limited to achieving an ideal precision in the dynamic market due to the influences of many factors such as the economic situation, policy changes, and emergency events. Therefore, the approach based on adaptive modeling and conditional probability transfer causes the new attention of researchers. This paper presents a new forecast method by the combination of improved back-propagation (BP neural network and Markov chain, as well as its modeling and computing technology. This method includes initial forecasting by improved BP neural network, division of Markov state region, computing of the state transition probability matrix, and the prediction adjustment. Results of the empirical study show that this method can achieve high accuracy in the stock index prediction, and it could provide a good reference for the investment in stock market.

Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

2010-07-01

We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

Why Enforcing its UNCAC Commitments Would be Good for Russia: A Computable General Equilibrium Model

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Michael P. BARRY

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Russia has ratified the UN Convention Against Corruption but has not successfully enforced it. This paper uses updated GTAP data to reconstruct a computable general equilibrium (CGE model to quantify the macroeconomic effects of corruption in Russia. Corruption is found to cost the Russian economy billions of dollars a year. A conclusion of the paper is that implementing and enforcing the UNCAC would be of significant economic benefit to Russia and its people.

Agent-Based and Macroscopic Modeling of the Complex Socio-Economic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksejus Kononovičius

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The focus of this contribution is the correspondence between collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Currently there is a wide selection of papers proposing various models for the both collective behavior and inter-individual interactions in the complex socio-economic systems. Yet the papers directly relating these two concepts are still quite rare. By studying this correspondence we discuss a cutting edge approach to the modeling of complex socio-economic systems. Design/methodology/approach – The collective behavior is often modeled using stochastic and ordinary calculus, while the inter-individual interactions are modeled using agent-based models. In order to obtain the ideal model, one should start from these frameworks and build a bridge to reach another. This is a formidable task, if we consider the top-down approach, namely starting from the collective behavior and moving towards inter-individual interactions. The bottom-up approach also fails, if complex inter-individual interaction models are considered, yet in this case we can start with simple models and increase the complexity as needed. Findings – The bottom-up approach, considering simple agent-based herding model as a model for the inter-individual interactions, allows us to derive certain macroscopic models of the complex socio-economic systems from the agent-based perspective. This provides interesting insights into the collective behavior patterns observed in the complex socio-economic systems. Research limitations/implications –The simplicity of the agent-based herding model might be considered to be somewhat limiting. Yet this simplicity implies that the model is highly universal. It reproduces universal features of social behavior and also can be further extended to fit different socio-economic scenarios. Practical implications – Insights provided in this contribution might be used to modify existing

The Model of Optimum Economic Growth with the Induced Scientific-Technological Progress

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Dilenko Viktor A.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available On the basis of the economic dynamics of the Harrod – Domar model, a model of optimum economic growth in line with the induced scientific-technological progress (STP has been built. In order to reflect the induced scientific-technological progress, with this model is proposed to further allocate the income element that is specially used for the investment of innovation activity, implementation of which reduces the capital intensity in development of the discussed economy. For the simplest way of presenting an economic mechanism for the investment of induced STP, analytical solutions of an appropriate task in optimum management have been obtained. Studying these decisions allowed to reveal the characteristics of the impact of parameters of scientific-technological progress and the analyzed economic system on choosing the best trajectory for its evolution. Possible directions for further developing the results presented can be considered the tasks in building and analyzing models of optimum economic growth that implement different investment options for the induced STP, as well as the models in which this investment mechanism is not exogenouslyed, but rather the result of the corresponding economic-mathematical research.

Economic Impacts of Future Changes in the Energy System - National Perspectives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Glynn, James; Fortes, Patrícia; Krook-Riekkola, Anna

2015-01-01

climate change. This chapter summarises modelling methodologies developed in the ETSAP community to assess economic impacts of decarbonising energy systems at a national level. The preceding chapter focuses on a global perspective. The modelling studies outlined here show that burden sharing rules...... and national revenue recycling schemes for carbon tax are critical for the long-term viability of economic growth and equitable engagement on combating climate change. Traditional computable general equilibrium models and energy systems models solved in isolation can misrepresent the long run carbon cost...

Economic Crisis and Marital Problems in Turkey: Testing the Family Stress Model

Science.gov (United States)

Aytac, Isik A.; Rankin, Bruce H.

2009-01-01

This paper applied the family stress model to the case of Turkey in the wake of the 2001 economic crisis. Using structural equation modeling and a nationally representative urban sample of 711 married women and 490 married men, we tested whether economic hardship and the associated family economic strain on families resulted in greater marital…

Modeling and simulation of economic processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan Brumar

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

The physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis and assessment for NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Jiming

1992-01-01

A set physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis referring to international general sub-item and account of investment and constant money levelized model and combining current economic analysis method in China for nuclear power plant was established. The model can be used in economic analysis not only for nuclear power plant but also for coal-fired power plant and can satisfy demand of doing economic analysis and assessment for nuclear power plant and conventional power plant

Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

Uncertainty in biology a computational modeling approach

CERN Document Server

Gomez-Cabrero, David

2016-01-01

Computational modeling of biomedical processes is gaining more and more weight in the current research into the etiology of biomedical problems and potential treatment strategies.  Computational modeling allows to reduce, refine and replace animal experimentation as well as to translate findings obtained in these experiments to the human background. However these biomedical problems are inherently complex with a myriad of influencing factors, which strongly complicates the model building and validation process.  This book wants to address four main issues related to the building and validation of computational models of biomedical processes: Modeling establishment under uncertainty Model selection and parameter fitting Sensitivity analysis and model adaptation Model predictions under uncertainty In each of the abovementioned areas, the book discusses a number of key-techniques by means of a general theoretical description followed by one or more practical examples.  This book is intended for graduate stude...

Computational models of airway branching morphogenesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Varner, Victor D; Nelson, Celeste M

2017-07-01

The bronchial network of the mammalian lung consists of millions of dichotomous branches arranged in a highly complex, space-filling tree. Recent computational models of branching morphogenesis in the lung have helped uncover the biological mechanisms that construct this ramified architecture. In this review, we focus on three different theoretical approaches - geometric modeling, reaction-diffusion modeling, and continuum mechanical modeling - and discuss how, taken together, these models have identified the geometric principles necessary to build an efficient bronchial network, as well as the patterning mechanisms that specify airway geometry in the developing embryo. We emphasize models that are integrated with biological experiments and suggest how recent progress in computational modeling has advanced our understanding of airway branching morphogenesis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model to Implement Virtual Computing Labs via Cloud Computing Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Washington Luna Encalada

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In recent years, we have seen a significant number of new technological ideas appearing in literature discussing the future of education. For example, E-learning, cloud computing, social networking, virtual laboratories, virtual realities, virtual worlds, massive open online courses (MOOCs, and bring your own device (BYOD are all new concepts of immersive and global education that have emerged in educational literature. One of the greatest challenges presented to e-learning solutions is the reproduction of the benefits of an educational institution’s physical laboratory. For a university without a computing lab, to obtain hands-on IT training with software, operating systems, networks, servers, storage, and cloud computing similar to that which could be received on a university campus computing lab, it is necessary to use a combination of technological tools. Such teaching tools must promote the transmission of knowledge, encourage interaction and collaboration, and ensure students obtain valuable hands-on experience. That, in turn, allows the universities to focus more on teaching and research activities than on the implementation and configuration of complex physical systems. In this article, we present a model for implementing ecosystems which allow universities to teach practical Information Technology (IT skills. The model utilizes what is called a “social cloud”, which utilizes all cloud computing services, such as Software as a Service (SaaS, Platform as a Service (PaaS, and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS. Additionally, it integrates the cloud learning aspects of a MOOC and several aspects of social networking and support. Social clouds have striking benefits such as centrality, ease of use, scalability, and ubiquity, providing a superior learning environment when compared to that of a simple physical lab. The proposed model allows students to foster all the educational pillars such as learning to know, learning to be, learning

Mathematical modeling and computational intelligence in engineering applications

CERN Document Server

Silva Neto, Antônio José da; Silva, Geraldo Nunes

2016-01-01

This book brings together a rich selection of studies in mathematical modeling and computational intelligence, with application in several fields of engineering, like automation, biomedical, chemical, civil, electrical, electronic, geophysical and mechanical engineering, on a multidisciplinary approach. Authors from five countries and 16 different research centers contribute with their expertise in both the fundamentals and real problems applications based upon their strong background on modeling and computational intelligence. The reader will find a wide variety of applications, mathematical and computational tools and original results, all presented with rigorous mathematical procedures. This work is intended for use in graduate courses of engineering, applied mathematics and applied computation where tools as mathematical and computational modeling, numerical methods and computational intelligence are applied to the solution of real problems.

Understanding Emergency Care Delivery Through Computer Simulation Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Laker, Lauren F; Torabi, Elham; France, Daniel J; Froehle, Craig M; Goldlust, Eric J; Hoot, Nathan R; Kasaie, Parastu; Lyons, Michael S; Barg-Walkow, Laura H; Ward, Michael J; Wears, Robert L

2018-02-01

In 2017, Academic Emergency Medicine convened a consensus conference entitled, "Catalyzing System Change through Health Care Simulation: Systems, Competency, and Outcomes." This article, a product of the breakout session on "understanding complex interactions through systems modeling," explores the role that computer simulation modeling can and should play in research and development of emergency care delivery systems. This article discusses areas central to the use of computer simulation modeling in emergency care research. The four central approaches to computer simulation modeling are described (Monte Carlo simulation, system dynamics modeling, discrete-event simulation, and agent-based simulation), along with problems amenable to their use and relevant examples to emergency care. Also discussed is an introduction to available software modeling platforms and how to explore their use for research, along with a research agenda for computer simulation modeling. Through this article, our goal is to enhance adoption of computer simulation, a set of methods that hold great promise in addressing emergency care organization and design challenges. © 2017 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Cloud Computing as a Tool for Improving Business Competitiveness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wišniewski Michał

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This article organizes knowledge on cloud computing presenting the classification of deployment models, characteristics and service models. The author, looking at the problem from the entrepreneur’s perspective, draws attention to the differences in the benefits depending on the cloud computing deployment models and considers an effective way of selection of cloud computing services according to the specificity of organization. Within this work, a thesis statement was considered that in economic terms the cloud computing is not always the best solution for your organization. This raises the question, “What kind of tools should be used to estimate the usefulness of the model cloud computing services in the enterprise?”

Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lamont, A.

2001-03-01

This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

2014-10-15

Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

Algebraic computability and enumeration models recursion theory and descriptive complexity

CERN Document Server

Nourani, Cyrus F

2016-01-01

This book, Algebraic Computability and Enumeration Models: Recursion Theory and Descriptive Complexity, presents new techniques with functorial models to address important areas on pure mathematics and computability theory from the algebraic viewpoint. The reader is first introduced to categories and functorial models, with Kleene algebra examples for languages. Functorial models for Peano arithmetic are described toward important computational complexity areas on a Hilbert program, leading to computability with initial models. Infinite language categories are also introduced to explain descriptive complexity with recursive computability with admissible sets and urelements. Algebraic and categorical realizability is staged on several levels, addressing new computability questions with omitting types realizably. Further applications to computing with ultrafilters on sets and Turing degree computability are examined. Functorial models computability is presented with algebraic trees realizing intuitionistic type...

Do's and Don'ts of Computer Models for Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Hammond, John S., III

1974-01-01

Concentrates on the managerial issues involved in computer planning models. Describes what computer planning models are and the process by which managers can increase the likelihood of computer planning models being successful in their organizations. (Author/DN)

Cloud Computing and Agile Organization Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bogdan GHILIC-MICU

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the 3rd millennium economy, defined by globalization and continuous reduction of natural resources, the economic organization becomes the main actor in the phenomenon of transfor-mation and adaptation to new conditions. Even more, the economic environment, which is closely related to the social environment, undergoes complex metamorphoses, especially in the management area. In this dynamic and complex social and environmental context, the econom-ic organization must possess the ability to adapt, becoming a flexible and agile answer to new market opportunities. Considering the spectacular evolution of information and communica-tions technology, one of the solutions to ensure organization agility is cloud computing. Just like the development of any science requires adaptation to theories and instruments specific to other fields, a cloud computing paradigm for the agile organization must appeal to models from management, cybernetics, mathematics, structuralism and information theory (or information systems theory.

Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knaap, Thijs

2004-01-01

In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

Unification and mechanistic detail as drivers of model construction: models of networks in economics and sociology.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuorikoski, Jaakko; Marchionni, Caterina

2014-12-01

We examine the diversity of strategies of modelling networks in (micro) economics and (analytical) sociology. Field-specific conceptions of what explaining (with) networks amounts to or systematic preference for certain kinds of explanatory factors are not sufficient to account for differences in modelling methodologies. We argue that network models in both sociology and economics are abstract models of network mechanisms and that differences in their modelling strategies derive to a large extent from field-specific conceptions of the way in which a good model should be a general one. Whereas the economics models aim at unification, the sociological models aim at a set of mechanism schemas that are extrapolatable to the extent that the underlying psychological mechanisms are general. These conceptions of generality induce specific biases in mechanistic explanation and are related to different views of when knowledge from different fields should be seen as relevant.

Reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction

CERN Document Server

Rozza, Gianluigi

2014-01-01

This monograph addresses the state of the art of reduced order methods for modeling and computational reduction of complex parametrized systems, governed by ordinary and/or partial differential equations, with a special emphasis on real time computing techniques and applications in computational mechanics, bioengineering and computer graphics.  Several topics are covered, including: design, optimization, and control theory in real-time with applications in engineering; data assimilation, geometry registration, and parameter estimation with special attention to real-time computing in biomedical engineering and computational physics; real-time visualization of physics-based simulations in computer science; the treatment of high-dimensional problems in state space, physical space, or parameter space; the interactions between different model reduction and dimensionality reduction approaches; the development of general error estimation frameworks which take into account both model and discretization effects. This...

Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zlatev, Z.; Brandt, J.; Builtjes, P. J. H.

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998......Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Large Scale Computations in Air Pollution Modelling, Sofia, Bulgaria, 6-10 July 1998...

Towards The Deep Model : Understanding Visual Recognition Through Computational Models

OpenAIRE

Wang, Panqu

2017-01-01

Understanding how visual recognition is achieved in the human brain is one of the most fundamental questions in vision research. In this thesis I seek to tackle this problem from a neurocomputational modeling perspective. More specifically, I build machine learning-based models to simulate and explain cognitive phenomena related to human visual recognition, and I improve computational models using brain-inspired principles to excel at computer vision tasks.I first describe how a neurocomputat...

Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

2001-01-01

This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

Science.gov (United States)

Ormerod, Paul

2006-10-01

The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

Economic Impacts of Total Water Use Control in the Heihe River Basin in Northwestern China—An Integrated CGE-BEM Modeling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Na Li

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper develops an integrated modeling approach combined with a top-down dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model and a bottom-up bio-economic model (BEM to study the economic impact of a total water use control policy in the Heihe river basin, northwestern China. The integrated CGE-BEM model is regionally disaggregated with a variety of crops and livestock, and includes the responses of farmers and consequent feedback effects in the regional economic system. The results show that under the total water use control scenario, the water use structure is changed and water use efficiency is improved. The total water use control policy has limited negative impact on the regional economic growth with only a slightly lower growth rate of 13.38% compared with a growth rate of 14% by 2020 under a business as usual water use scenario. However, the total water use control policy has significant negative impacts on several sectors, especially agriculture and food processing. It is expected cropping systems will change through a replacement of water-intensive crops with water-efficient crops. Farmers’ incomes will decrease by 3.14%. In order to alleviate farmers’ income loss and deal with water use conflicts across different sectors and regions, the promotion of migration of surplus labor from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors and the improvement of water use efficiency in agriculture are needed.

An Idealized Cognitive Model Analysis of Metaphors in American Economic News Report

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Yang

2018-03-01

On the basis of the theoretical framework of Lakoff’s Conceptual Metaphor, the paper researches into the cognitive model of conceptual metaphors in American Economic News Reports. Moreover, the paper tries to analyze economic discourse by the application of Idealized Cognitive Model of its metaphorical thinking combined with cultural model and reflect the ideology of the media. It aims to help English learners ponder the implied meaning the economic news reports conveyed and take a new look at metaphors between the lines.

Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

2012-01-01

There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

1994-01-01

An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

Science.gov (United States)

Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

Disciplines, models, and computers: the path to computational quantum chemistry.

Science.gov (United States)

Lenhard, Johannes

2014-12-01

Many disciplines and scientific fields have undergone a computational turn in the past several decades. This paper analyzes this sort of turn by investigating the case of computational quantum chemistry. The main claim is that the transformation from quantum to computational quantum chemistry involved changes in three dimensions. First, on the side of instrumentation, small computers and a networked infrastructure took over the lead from centralized mainframe architecture. Second, a new conception of computational modeling became feasible and assumed a crucial role. And third, the field of computa- tional quantum chemistry became organized in a market-like fashion and this market is much bigger than the number of quantum theory experts. These claims will be substantiated by an investigation of the so-called density functional theory (DFT), the arguably pivotal theory in the turn to computational quantum chemistry around 1990.

Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

Science.gov (United States)

Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

2018-05-01

To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

2005-01-01

.... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

A mean-field game economic growth model

KAUST Repository

Gomes, Diogo A.; Lafleche, Laurent; Nurbekyan, Levon

2016-01-01

Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks

Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kruseman, G.

2000-01-01

This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

Climate Modeling Computing Needs Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Petraska, K. E.; McCabe, J. D.

2011-12-01

This paper discusses early findings of an assessment of computing needs for NASA science, engineering and flight communities. The purpose of this assessment is to document a comprehensive set of computing needs that will allow us to better evaluate whether our computing assets are adequately structured to meet evolving demand. The early results are interesting, already pointing out improvements we can make today to get more out of the computing capacity we have, as well as potential game changing innovations for the future in how we apply information technology to science computing. Our objective is to learn how to leverage our resources in the best way possible to do more science for less money. Our approach in this assessment is threefold: Development of use case studies for science workflows; Creating a taxonomy and structure for describing science computing requirements; and characterizing agency computing, analysis, and visualization resources. As projects evolve, science data sets increase in a number of ways: in size, scope, timelines, complexity, and fidelity. Generating, processing, moving, and analyzing these data sets places distinct and discernable requirements on underlying computing, analysis, storage, and visualization systems. The initial focus group for this assessment is the Earth Science modeling community within NASA's Science Mission Directorate (SMD). As the assessment evolves, this focus will expand to other science communities across the agency. We will discuss our use cases, our framework for requirements and our characterizations, as well as our interview process, what we learned and how we plan to improve our materials after using them in the first round of interviews in the Earth Science Modeling community. We will describe our plans for how to expand this assessment, first into the Earth Science data analysis and remote sensing communities, and then throughout the full community of science, engineering and flight at NASA.

A Markov computer simulation model of the economics of neuromuscular blockade in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chow John L

2006-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Management of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS in the intensive care unit (ICU is clinically challenging and costly. Neuromuscular blocking agents may facilitate mechanical ventilation and improve oxygenation, but may result in prolonged recovery of neuromuscular function and acute quadriplegic myopathy syndrome (AQMS. The goal of this study was to address a hypothetical question via computer modeling: Would a reduction in intubation time of 6 hours and/or a reduction in the incidence of AQMS from 25% to 21%, provide enough benefit to justify a drug with an additional expenditure of $267 (the difference in acquisition cost between a generic and brand name neuromuscular blocker? Methods The base case was a 55 year-old man in the ICU with ARDS who receives neuromuscular blockade for 3.5 days. A Markov model was designed with hypothetical patients in 1 of 6 mutually exclusive health states: ICU-intubated, ICU-extubated, hospital ward, long-term care, home, or death, over a period of 6 months. The net monetary benefit was computed. Results Our computer simulation modeling predicted the mean cost for ARDS patients receiving standard care for 6 months to be $62,238 (5% – 95% percentiles $42,259 – $83,766, with an overall 6-month mortality of 39%. Assuming a ceiling ratio of $35,000, even if a drug (that cost $267 more hypothetically reduced AQMS from 25% to 21% and decreased intubation time by 6 hours, the net monetary benefit would only equal $137. Conclusion ARDS patients receiving a neuromuscular blocker have a high mortality, and unpredictable outcome, which results in large variability in costs per case. If a patient dies, there is no benefit to any drug that reduces ventilation time or AQMS incidence. A prospective, randomized pharmacoeconomic study of neuromuscular blockers in the ICU to asses AQMS or intubation times is impractical because of the highly variable clinical course of patients with ARDS.

A non-linear model of economic production processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

A Computational Analysis Model for Open-ended Cognitions

Science.gov (United States)

Morita, Junya; Miwa, Kazuhisa

In this paper, we propose a novel usage for computational cognitive models. In cognitive science, computational models have played a critical role of theories for human cognitions. Many computational models have simulated results of controlled psychological experiments successfully. However, there have been only a few attempts to apply the models to complex realistic phenomena. We call such a situation ``open-ended situation''. In this study, MAC/FAC (``many are called, but few are chosen''), proposed by [Forbus 95], that models two stages of analogical reasoning was applied to our open-ended psychological experiment. In our experiment, subjects were presented a cue story, and retrieved cases that had been learned in their everyday life. Following this, they rated inferential soundness (goodness as analogy) of each retrieved case. For each retrieved case, we computed two kinds of similarity scores (content vectors/structural evaluation scores) using the algorithms of the MAC/FAC. As a result, the computed content vectors explained the overall retrieval of cases well, whereas the structural evaluation scores had a strong relation to the rated scores. These results support the MAC/FAC's theoretical assumption - different similarities are involved on the two stages of analogical reasoning. Our study is an attempt to use a computational model as an analysis device for open-ended human cognitions.

Replicating Health Economic Models: Firm Foundations or a House of Cards?