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Sample records for economic assessment model

  1. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  2. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  3. Assessing groundwater policy with coupled economic-groundwater hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Kevin B.; Brown, Casey; Yang, Yi-Chen E.; Ahlfeld, David P.

    2014-03-01

    This study explores groundwater management policies and the effect of modeling assumptions on the projected performance of those policies. The study compares an optimal economic allocation for groundwater use subject to streamflow constraints, achieved by a central planner with perfect foresight, with a uniform tax on groundwater use and a uniform quota on groundwater use. The policies are compared with two modeling approaches, the Optimal Control Model (OCM) and the Multi-Agent System Simulation (MASS). The economic decision models are coupled with a physically based representation of the aquifer using a calibrated MODFLOW groundwater model. The results indicate that uniformly applied policies perform poorly when simulated with more realistic, heterogeneous, myopic, and self-interested agents. In particular, the effects of the physical heterogeneity of the basin and the agents undercut the perceived benefits of policy instruments assessed with simple, single-cell groundwater modeling. This study demonstrates the results of coupling realistic hydrogeology and human behavior models to assess groundwater management policies. The Republican River Basin, which overlies a portion of the Ogallala aquifer in the High Plains of the United States, is used as a case study for this analysis.

  4. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  5. Activity-Based Costing Model for Assessing Economic Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeHayes, Daniel W.; Lovrinic, Joseph G.

    1994-01-01

    An economic model for evaluating the cost performance of academic and administrative programs in higher education is described. Examples from its application at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis are used to illustrate how the model has been used to control costs and reengineer processes. (Author/MSE)

  6. The physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis and assessment for NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Jiming

    1992-01-01

    A set physical and mathematical model of dynamic economic analysis referring to international general sub-item and account of investment and constant money levelized model and combining current economic analysis method in China for nuclear power plant was established. The model can be used in economic analysis not only for nuclear power plant but also for coal-fired power plant and can satisfy demand of doing economic analysis and assessment for nuclear power plant and conventional power plant

  7. Toward linking demographic and economic models for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, C.A.; Meenan, C.D.

    1991-01-01

    One of the objectives of the Yucca Mountain Project, in Southern Nevada, is to evaluate the effects of the development of a high-level nuclear waste repository. As described in the Section 175 Report to the Congress of the US, the temporal scope of this repository project encompasses approximately 70 years and includes four phases: Site characterization and licensing, construction, operation, and closure and decommissioning. If retrieval of the waste were to be required, the temporal scope of the repository project could be extended to approximately 100 years. The study of the potential socioeconomic effects of this project is the foundation for this paper. This paper focuses on the economic and demographic aspects and a possible method to interface the two. First, the authors briefly discuss general socioeconomic modeling theory from a county level view point, as well as methods for the apportionment of county level data to sub-county areas. Next, the authors describe the unique economic and demographic conditions which exist in Nevada at both the state and county levels. Finally, the authors evaluate a possible procedure for analyzing repository effects at a sub-county level; this involves discussion of an interface linking the economic and demographic aspects, which is based on the reconciliation of supply and demand for labor. The authors conclude that the basis for further model development may rely on the interaction of supply and demand to produce change in wage rates. These changes in expected wages should be a justification for allocating economic migrants (who may respond to Yucca Mountain Project development) into various communities

  8. Special Issue on Using Econometrics for Assessing Economic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2009-01-01

    Two methodological approaches to empirical economics which are labelled ‘theory first' versus ‘reality first' are introduced building the background for the discussion of the individual contributions to this special issue.......Two methodological approaches to empirical economics which are labelled ‘theory first' versus ‘reality first' are introduced building the background for the discussion of the individual contributions to this special issue....

  9. Review of regional economic models with special reference to labor impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferris, G.; Mason, B.

    1979-06-01

    This paper reviews several regional economic models and examines the capabilities of these models for assessing the total employment impacts of solar energy adoption. Five generic analytic methods are discussed: economic base analysis, shift-share analysis, demographic-economic interaction models, input-output analysis, and industrial location analysis. Ten regional models incorporating some aspect of these methods are reviewed. From the model review, the conclusion is drawn that there is no single model that fits all of the necessary criteria for planned research efforts. Models that appear to hold promise are the Economic Activity Analysis (EAA) Model, the Regional Industrial Multipliers System (RIMS), the Multiregion, Multi-industry (MRMI) Model, and the MULTIREGION model.

  10. The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

    2014-10-15

    Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or

  11. Cultural, Social, and Economic Capital Constructs in International Assessments: An Evaluation Using Exploratory Structural Equation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro, Daniel H.; Sandoval-Hernández, Andrés; Lüdtke, Oliver

    2014-01-01

    The article employs exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to evaluate constructs of economic, cultural, and social capital in international large-scale assessment (LSA) data from the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) 2006 and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2009. ESEM integrates the…

  12. The application of multiloop diagnostics model to assess and improve the economic security of enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pluzhnikov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The author’s research is dedicated to the enhancement of the level of the enterprise economic safety. This task involves developing the concept of an integrated system for early prevention of dangers and threats of business activity, substantiation of procedures for regulating the activities of the enterprise in accordance with the changing external and internal factors. Multiloop diagnostics model is proposed to identify causal relations of management dysfunction. It allows you to receive an adequate assessment of the basic parameters of activity of the enterprise and accurately identify its status. Researching problems of economic safety of the enterprise such diagnostic methods as economic and logical analysis, statistical monitoring and strategic management were applied. There was made a conclusion that a qualitative assessment is a key tool of the level assessment of the enterprise economic safety, its control, and monitoring. It allows you to get reliable information about the real possibilities of the enterprise at different stages of development, to monitor and evaluate the level of economic security, find effective solutions to transition to a higher level of economic safety of the enterprise.

  13. Interactive model to assess economics of anaerobic digestion of the farm

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-08-01

    An interactive computer model, to provide economic assessment for on the farm anaerobic digestion systems was designed. The model is accessed as part of the MASEC Models Library. It consists of two phases: engineering analysis and economic analysis. User inputs are stored in a data base and may be retained for future use. Model outputs include a recap of user inputs, calculations for gas production, digester heat requirements, system revenues, yearly cash flow, and a graph of the net present value of the investment. The model is generalized so that nonfarm applications may also be analyzed. The program will work equally well for various digester designs such as continuously stirred reactors, plug flow systems, and fluidized bed columns.

  14. Integrated environmental assessment of future energy scenarios based on economic equilibrium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igos, E.; Rugani, B.; Rege, S.; Benetto, E.; Drouet, L.; Zachary, D.; Haas, T.

    2014-01-01

    The future evolution of energy supply technologies strongly depends on (and affects) the economic and environmental systems, due to the high dependency of this sector on the availability and cost of fossil fuels, especially on the small regional scale. This paper aims at presenting the modeling system and preliminary results of a research project conducted on the scale of Luxembourg to assess the environmental impact of future energy scenarios for the country, integrating outputs from partial and computable general equilibrium models within hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) frameworks. The general equilibrium model for Luxembourg, LUXGEM, is used to evaluate the economic impacts of policy decisions and other economic shocks over the time horizon 2006-2030. A techno-economic (partial equilibrium) model for Luxembourg, ETEM, is used instead to compute operation levels of various technologies to meet the demand for energy services at the least cost along the same timeline. The future energy demand and supply are made consistent by coupling ETEM with LUXGEM so as to have the same macro-economic variables and energy shares driving both models. The coupling results are then implemented within a set of Environmentally-Extended Input-Output (EE-IO) models in historical time series to test the feasibility of the integrated framework and then to assess the environmental impacts of the country. Accordingly, a dis-aggregated energy sector was built with the different ETEM technologies in the EE-IO to allow hybridization with Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) and enrich the process detail. The results show that the environmental impact slightly decreased overall from 2006 to 2009. Most of the impacts come from some imported commodities (natural gas, used to produce electricity, and metalliferous ores and metal scrap). The main energy production technology is the combined-cycle gas turbine plant 'Twinerg', representing almost 80% of the domestic electricity production in Luxembourg

  15. PLEXFIN a computer model for the economic assessment of nuclear power plant life extension. User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The IAEA developed PLEXFIN, a computer model analysis tool aimed to assist decision makers in the assessment of the economic viability of a nuclear power plant life/licence extension. This user's manual was produced to facilitate the application of the PLEXFIN computer model. It is widely accepted in the industry that the operational life of a nuclear power plant is not limited to a pre-determined number of years, sometimes established on non-technical grounds, but by the capability of the plant to comply with the nuclear safety and technical requirements in a cost effective manner. The decision to extend the license/life of a nuclear power plant involves a number of political, technical and economic issues. The economic viability is a cornerstone of the decision-making process. In a liberalized electricity market, the economics to justify a nuclear power plant life/license extension decision requires a more complex evaluation. This user's manual was elaborated in the framework of the IAEA's programmes on Continuous process improvement of NPP operating performance, and on Models for analysis and capacity building for sustainable energy development, with the support of four consultants meetings

  16. A Hydro-Economic Approach to Representing Water Resources Impacts in Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, Paul H.; Strzepek, Kenneth, M.

    2004-01-14

    Grant Number DE-FG02-98ER62665 Office of Energy Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Abstract Many Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) divide the world into a small number of highly aggregated regions. Non-OECD countries are aggregated geographically into continental and multiple-continental regions or economically by development level. Current research suggests that these large scale aggregations cannot accurately represent potential water resources-related climate change impacts. In addition, IAMs do not explicitly model the flow regulation impacts of reservoir and ground water systems, the economics of water supply, or the demand for water in economic activities. Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) as a case study, this research implemented a set of methodologies to provide accurate representation of water resource climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models. There were also detailed examinations of key issues related to aggregated modeling including: modeling water consumption versus water withdrawals; ground and surface water interactions; development of reservoir cost curves; modeling of surface areas of aggregated reservoirs for estimating evaporation losses; and evaluating the importance of spatial scale in river basin modeling. The major findings include: - Continental or national or even large scale river basin aggregation of water supplies and demands do not accurately capture the impacts of climate change in the water and agricultural sector in IAMs. - Fortunately, there now exist gridden approaches (0.5 X 0.5 degrees) to model streamflows in a global analysis. The gridded approach to hydrologic modeling allows flexibility in aligning basin boundaries with national boundaries. This combined with GIS tools, high speed computers, and the growing availability of socio-economic gridded data bases allows assignment of

  17. Assessing the impact of the Nitrate Directive on farming systems using a bio-economic modelling chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Belhouchette, H.; Louhichi, K.; Therond, O.; Mouratiadou, I.; Wery, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Flichman, G.

    2011-01-01

    Bio-economic models can be used to assess the impact of policy and environmental measures through economic and environmental indicators. Focusing on agricultural systems, farmers’ decisions in terms of cropping systems and the associated crop management at field scale are essential in such studies.

  18. Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

  19. Economic assessment of sterifeed process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mat Rasol Awang; Hassan Hamdani Mutaat

    2004-01-01

    The economics of a processing technology depends on its cost. Two types of costs commonly used in the estimation are a fixed cost and the other is variable cost. The cost structure that included in the fixed cost, mainly, the cost of land, building and machineries, and the variable cost covers raw materials, salary / wages, utilities, irradiation charge, other miscellaneous expenses and contingencies. The assessment were made by treating the economic data using discounted cash flow projection method to deduce the economic indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit to Cost (B/C) ratio, that would suggest the project feasibility, either feasible or otherwise. The NPV, IRR, B/C deduced from Sterifeed Process showed the economic of this technology was infeasible due high cost incurred in transportation, labour as well as the cost of machinery. This is accomplished by sensitivity test performed on these cost components. However, cost structure derived from Sterifeed Plant serves as a model cost structure for economic assessment in production of Sterifeed, a fermented ruminant feed, and to work further on the economic of the project. This paper discuss economic evaluation of Sterifeed process in different scenarios that carried out in the Sterifeed process operations and deduction were made to derive a model production unit for commercialisation. (Author)

  20. A regional scale modeling framework combining biogeochemical model with life cycle and economic analysis for integrated assessment of cropping systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabatabaie, Seyed Mohammad Hossein; Bolte, John P; Murthy, Ganti S

    2018-06-01

    The goal of this study was to integrate a crop model, DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition), with life cycle assessment (LCA) and economic analysis models using a GIS-based integrated platform, ENVISION. The integrated model enables LCA practitioners to conduct integrated economic analysis and LCA on a regional scale while capturing the variability of soil emissions due to variation in regional factors during production of crops and biofuel feedstocks. In order to evaluate the integrated model, the corn-soybean cropping system in Eagle Creek Watershed, Indiana was studied and the integrated model was used to first model the soil emissions and then conduct the LCA as well as economic analysis. The results showed that the variation in soil emissions due to variation in weather is high causing some locations to be carbon sink in some years and source of CO 2 in other years. In order to test the model under different scenarios, two tillage scenarios were defined: 1) conventional tillage (CT) and 2) no tillage (NT) and analyzed with the model. The overall GHG emissions for the corn-soybean cropping system was simulated and results showed that the NT scenario resulted in lower soil GHG emissions compared to CT scenario. Moreover, global warming potential (GWP) of corn ethanol from well to pump varied between 57 and 92gCO 2 -eq./MJ while GWP under the NT system was lower than that of the CT system. The cost break-even point was calculated as $3612.5/ha in a two year corn-soybean cropping system and the results showed that under low and medium prices for corn and soybean most of the farms did not meet the break-even point. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Assessment of the Value, Impact, and Validity of the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) Suite of Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billman, L.; Keyser, D.

    2013-08-01

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) models, developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), use input-output methodology to estimate gross (not net) jobs and economic impacts of building and operating selected types of renewable electricity generation and fuel plants. This analysis provides the DOE with an assessment of the value, impact, and validity of the JEDI suite of models. While the models produce estimates of jobs, earnings, and economic output, this analysis focuses only on jobs estimates. This validation report includes an introduction to JEDI models, an analysis of the value and impact of the JEDI models, and an analysis of the validity of job estimates generated by JEDI model through comparison to other modeled estimates and comparison to empirical, observed jobs data as reported or estimated for a commercial project, a state, or a region.

  2. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Modelling Framework to Evaluate Water Allocation Strategies II: Scenario Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, B.; Malano, H.; Davidson, B.; Hellegers, P.J.G.J.; Bharati, L.; Sylvain, M.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the results of an assessment of the hydrological and economic implications of reallocating water in the Musi sub-basin, a catchment within the Krishna Basin in India, are reported. Policy makers identified a number of different but plausible scenarios that could apply in the sub-basin,

  3. Health economic assessment: a methodological primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, Steven

    2009-12-01

    This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs), an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis), and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

  4. Health Economic Assessment: A Methodological Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Simoens

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs, an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis, and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

  5. Assessment of energy and economic performance of office building models: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, X. Y.; Ye, C. T.; Li, H. S.; Wang, X. L.; Ma, W. B.

    2016-08-01

    Energy consumption of building accounts for more than 37.3% of total energy consumption while the proportion of energy-saving buildings is just 5% in China. In this paper, in order to save potential energy, an office building in Southern China was selected as a test example for energy consumption characteristics. The base building model was developed by TRNSYS software and validated against the recorded data from the field work in six days out of August-September in 2013. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for energy performance of building envelope retrofitting; five envelope parameters were analyzed for assessing the thermal responses. Results indicated that the key sensitivity factors were obtained for the heat-transfer coefficient of exterior walls (U-wall), infiltration rate and shading coefficient (SC), of which the sum sensitivity factor was about 89.32%. In addition, the results were evaluated in terms of energy and economic analysis. The analysis of sensitivity validated against some important results of previous studies. On the other hand, the cost-effective method improved the efficiency of investment management in building energy.

  6. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  7. Assessment of validation of health-economics decision models in intervention studies of seasonal influenza and breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Boer, P.T.; Frederix, G.W.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.F.; Vemer, P.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: We aimed to review recently published health-economic (HE) decision models to assess the reporting of validation efforts. An infectious disease (seasonal influenza, SI) and a chronic disease (breast cancer, BC) were used as examples, giving a preliminary insight in the reporting of

  8. AN ENVIRON-ECONOMICAL MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF WATER POLLUTION IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN REFERENCE TO INDIAN SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hemant PATHAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the application of the mathematical modeling to such a specific area as environ-economical interaction in prospect of big countries like India. A model of mutual interaction of dirty drinking water resulting water borne diseases, badly affected economy is proposed. For the description of some of these models illustrates drinking water resources, incapable municipal water treatment consequently expansion of diseases, World Bank loan, affected biggest labour forces (mankind and ultimate results in the form of decrease in GDP. These mathematical models may be used in the solving of similar type problems exist in south and eastern Asian economies.

  9. Stochastic modelling to assess economic effects of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steeneveld, Wilma; Swinkels, Jantijn; Hogeveen, Henk

    2007-11-01

    Chronic subclinical mastitis is usually not treated during the lactation. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis. Factors in the model included the probability of cure after treatment, probability of the cow becoming clinically diseased, transmission of infection to other cows, and physiological effects of the infection. Using basic input parameters for Dutch circumstances, the average economic costs per cow of an untreated chronic subclinical mastitis case caused by Str. uberis in a single quarter from day of diagnosis onwards was euro109. With treatment, the average costs were higher (euro120). Thus, for the average cow, treatment was not efficient economically. However, the risk of high costs was much higher when cows with chronic subclinical mastitis were not treated. A sensitivity analysis showed that profitability of treatment of chronic subclinical Str. uberis mastitis depended on farm-specific factors (such as economic value of discarded milk) and cow-specific factors (such as day of diagnosis, duration of infection, amount of transmission to other cows and cure rate). Therefore, herd level protocols are not sufficient and decision support should be cow specific. Given the importance of cow-specific factors, information from the current model could be applied to automatic decision support systems.

  10. Economic modeling of HIV treatments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Kit N

    2010-05-01

    To review the general literature on microeconomic modeling and key points that must be considered in the general assessment of economic modeling reports, discuss the evolution of HIV economic models and identify models that illustrate this development over time, as well as examples of current studies. Recommend improvements in HIV economic modeling. Recent economic modeling studies of HIV include examinations of scaling up antiretroviral (ARV) in South Africa, screening prior to use of abacavir, preexposure prophylaxis, early start of ARV in developing countries and cost-effectiveness comparisons of specific ARV drugs using data from clinical trials. These studies all used extensively published second-generation Markov models in their analyses. There have been attempts to simplify approaches to cost-effectiveness estimates by using simple decision trees or cost-effectiveness calculations with short-time horizons. However, these approaches leave out important cumulative economic effects that will not appear early in a treatment. Many economic modeling studies were identified in the 'gray' literature, but limited descriptions precluded an assessment of their adherence to modeling guidelines, and thus to the validity of their findings. There is a need for developing third-generation models to accommodate new knowledge about adherence, adverse effects, and viral resistance.

  11. Development of a decision model for the techno-economic assessment of municipal solid waste utilization pathways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Md Mohib-Ul-Haque; Jain, Siddharth; Vaezi, Mahdi; Kumar, Amit

    2016-02-01

    Economic competitiveness is one of the key factors in making decisions towards the development of waste conversion facilities and devising a sustainable waste management strategy. The goal of this study is to develop a framework, as well as to develop and demonstrate a comprehensive techno-economic model to help county and municipal decision makers in establishing waste conversion facilities. The user-friendly data-intensive model, called the FUNdamental ENgineering PrinciplEs-based ModeL for Estimation of Cost of Energy and Fuels from MSW (FUNNEL-Cost-MSW), compares nine different waste management scenarios, including landfilling and composting, in terms of economic parameters such as gate fees and return on investment. In addition, a geographic information system (GIS) model was developed to determine suitable locations for waste conversion facilities and landfill sites based on integration of environmental, social, and economic factors. Finally, a case study on Parkland County and its surrounding counties in the province of Alberta, Canada, was conducted and a sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the influence of the key technical and economic parameters on the calculated results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Models of Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Ioana; Tiberiu Socaciu

    2013-01-01

    The article presents specific aspects of management and models for economic analysis. Thus, we present the main types of economic analysis: statistical analysis, dynamic analysis, static analysis, mathematical analysis, psychological analysis. Also we present the main object of the analysis: the technological activity analysis of a company, the analysis of the production costs, the economic activity analysis of a company, the analysis of equipment, the analysis of labor productivity, the anal...

  13. Assessing and optimizing the economic and environmental impacts of cogeneration/district energy systems using an energy equilibrium model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Y.J.; Rosen, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Energy equilibrium models can be valuable aids in energy planning and decision-making. In such models, supply is represented by a cost-minimizing linear submodel and demand by a smooth vector-valued function of prices. In this paper, we use the energy equilibrium model to study conventional systems and cogeneration-based district energy (DE) systems for providing heating, cooling and electrical services, not only to assess the potential economic and environmental benefits of cogeneration-based DE systems, but also to develop optimal configurations while accounting for such factors as economics and environmental impact. The energy equilibrium model is formulated and solved with software called WATEMS, which uses sequential non-linear programming to calculate the intertemporal equilibrium of energy supplies and demands. The methods of analysis and evaluation for the economic and environmental impacts are carefully explored. An illustrative energy equilibrium model of conventional and cogeneration-based DE systems is developed within WATEMS to compare quantitatively the economic and environmental impacts of those systems for various scenarios. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  14. Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption process in Korea using the LEAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Ho-Jun; Lee, Seungmoon; Maken, Sanjeev; Ahn, Se-Woong; Park, Jin-Won; Min, Byoungryul; Koh, Wongun

    2007-01-01

    CO 2 emission from fossil fuels is a major cause for the global warming effect, but it is hard to remove completely in actuality. Moreover, energy consumption is bound to increase for the continuous economic development of a country that has an industrial formation requiring high-energy demand. Therefore, we need to consider not only a device for CO 2 mitigation but also its impact when a CO 2 mitigation device is applied. The device for CO 2 emission mitigation can be classified into three fields: energy consumption reduction, development of CO 2 removal and recovery technology, and development of alternative energy technology. Among these options, CO 2 removal and recovery technology has a merit that can be applied to a process in the near future. Therefore, research for CO 2 removal and recovery is actively progressing in Korea. In this study, environmental and economic assessment according to the energy policy change for climate change agreement and increase of CO 2 mitigation technology is accomplished, on the bases of operating data for the CO 2 chemical absorption pilot plant that is installed in the Seoul coal steam power plant. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) was used to analyze the alternative scenario, and results were shown quantitatively

  15. Materials, system designs and modelling approaches in techno-economic assessment of all-vanadium redox flow batteries - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minke, Christine; Turek, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    The vanadium redox flow battery (VFB) is one of the most promising stationary electrochemical storage systems. The reduction of system costs is a major challenge in the realization of its widespread application. The high complexity of this technology requires a close linking of technologic and economic aspects in system cost assessment. The present review provides an extensive literature analysis with a focus on techno-economic assessment of VFB. Considered materials, system designs and modelling approaches are assessed and compared in order to present and evaluate the current status of system cost assessment in a transparent way. Systems in a range of 2 kW-50 MW providing energy for up to 150 h are covered in literature resulting in an immense range of specific total system costs of 564-12931 € kW-1 or 89-1738 € (kWh)-1. Based on the data from the reviewed studies, guide values of 650 € (kWh)-1 and 550 € (kWh)-1 for installed VFB systems in a power range of 10-1000 kW providing energy for 4 h and 8 h respectively are derived from literature. Moreover, the relevance of precision in the definition of scope and components for meaningful results of techno-economic assessments of VFB systems is pointed out.

  16. Dynamic models for health economic assessments of pertussis vaccines : what goes around comes around ...

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenbaum, M.H.; De Cao, E.; Westra, T.A.; Postma, M.J.

    2012-01-01

    Despite childhood vaccination programs, pertussis remains endemic. To reduce the burden of pertussis, various extended pertussis vaccination strategies have been suggested. The aim of this article is to evaluate dynamic models used to assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccination. In total, 16

  17. Assessing the Impact of Antidrug Advertising on Adolescent Drug Consumption: Results From a Behavioral Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Block, Lauren G.; Morwitz, Vicki G.; Putsis, William P.; Sen, Subrata K.

    2002-01-01

    Objectives. This study examined whether adolescents’ recall of antidrug advertising is associated with a decreased probability of using illicit drugs and, given drug use, a reduced volume of use. Methods. A behavioral economic model of influences on drug consumption was developed with survey data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents to determine the incremental impact of antidrug advertising. Results. The findings provided evidence that recall of antidrug advertising was associated with a lower probability of marijuana and cocaine/crack use. Recall of such advertising was not associated with the decision of how much marijuana or cocaine/crack to use. Results suggest that individuals predisposed to try marijuana are also predisposed to try cocaine/crack. Conclusions. The present results provide support for the effectiveness of antidrug advertising programs. (Am J Public Health. 2002;92:1346–1351) PMID:12144995

  18. [Exploring models for the assessment of the economic, social, political, and scientific impact of health research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macías-Angel, Beatriz; Agudelo-Calderón, Carlos A

    2015-05-01

    Health research produces effects on the health of populations. This document approaches the frameworks and the models used by developed countries to assess the impact of health research through documentary analysis of research with the highest impact. With this, it was possible to identify two guiding axes of analysis: one having to do with focus, and the other having to do with emphasis. With these, the published models, their uses, their reach, and their origins are related. Our study brings awareness to the features they have and the areas in which Colombia could implement them. We found that the framework for evaluating health research known as the "payback model" is a model for monitoring research that tracks the process and research results with multidimensional categorization of the impacts of research.

  19. A 3-stage model for assessing the probable economic effects of direct-to-consumer advertising of pharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Ronald J; Ramachandran, Sulabha; Zachry, Woodie M

    2003-01-01

    The pharmaceutical industry employs a variety of marketing strategies that have previously been directed primarily toward physicians. However, mass media direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising of prescription drugs has emerged as a ubiquitous promotional strategy. This article explores the economics of DTC advertising in greater depth than has been done in the past by using a 3-stage economic model to assess the pertinent literature and to show the probable effects of DTC advertising in the United States. Economics literature on the subject was searched using the Journal of Economic Literature. Health services literature was searched using computer callback devices. Spending on DTC advertising in the United States increased from $17 million in 1985 to $2.5 billion in 2000. Proponents of DTC advertising claim that it provides valuable product-related information to health care professionals and patients, may contribute to better use of medications, and helps patients take charge of their own health care. Opponents argue that DTC advertising provides misleading messages rather than well-balanced, evidence-based information. The literature is replete with opinions about the effects of prescription drug advertising on pharmaceutical drug prices and physician-prescribing patterns, but few studies have addressed the issues beyond opinion surveys. The economic literature on advertising effects in other markets, however, may provide insight. DTC advertising indirectly affects the price and the quantity of production of pharmaceuticals via its effect on changes in consumer demand.

  20. Modeling, simulation, parametric study and economic assessment of reciprocating internal combustion engine integrated with multi-effect desalination unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salimi, Mohsen; Amidpour, Majid

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Integration of small MED unit with gas engine power cycle is studied in this paper. • Modeling, simulation, parametric study and sensitivity analysis were performed. • A thermodynamic model for heat recovery and power generation of the gas engine has been presented. • Annualized Cost of System (ACS) has been employed for economic assessment. • Economic feasibilty dependence of integrated system on natural gas and water prices has been investigated. - Abstract: Due to thermal nature of multi-effect desalination (MED), its integration with a suitable power cycle is highly desirable for waste heat recovery. One of the proper power cycle for proposed integration is internal combustion engine (ICE). The exhaust gas heat of ICE is used to produce motive steam for the required heat for the first effect of MED system. Also, the water jacket heat is utilized in a heat exchanger to pre-heat the seawater. This paper studies a thermodynamic model for a tri-generation system composed of ICE integrated with MED. The ICE thermodynamic model has been used in place of different empirical efficiency relations to estimate performance – load curves reasonably. The entire system performance has been coded in MATLAB, and the results of proposed thermodynamic model for the engine have been verified by manufacturer catalogue. By increasing the engine load from 40% to 100%, the water production of MED unit will increase from 4.38 cubic meters per day to 26.78 cubic meters per day and the tri-generation efficiency from 31% to 56%. Economic analyses of the MED unit integrated with ICE was performed based on Annualized Cost of System method. This integration makes the system more economical. It has been determined that in higher market prices for fresh water (more than 7 US$ per cubic meter), the increase in effects number is more significant to the period of return decrement.

  1. A global economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of new treatments for advanced breast cancer in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchemin, C; Letarte, N; Mathurin, K; Yelle, L; Lachaine, J

    2016-06-01

    Objective Considering the increasing number of treatment options for metastatic breast cancer (MBC), it is important to develop high-quality methods to assess the cost-effectiveness of new anti-cancer drugs. This study aims to develop a global economic model that could be used as a benchmark for the economic evaluation of new therapies for MBC. Methods The Global Pharmacoeconomics of Metastatic Breast Cancer (GPMBC) model is a Markov model that was constructed to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of new treatments for MBC from a Canadian healthcare system perspective over a lifetime horizon. Specific parameters included in the model are cost of drug treatment, survival outcomes, and incidence of treatment-related adverse events (AEs). Global parameters are patient characteristics, health states utilities, disutilities, and costs associated with treatment-related AEs, as well as costs associated with drug administration, medical follow-up, and end-of-life care. The GPMBC model was tested and validated in a specific context, by assessing the cost-effectiveness of lapatinib plus letrozole compared with other widely used first-line therapies for post-menopausal women with hormone receptor-positive (HR+) and epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) MBC. Results When tested, the GPMBC model led to incremental cost-utility ratios of CA$131 811 per QALY, CA$56 211 per QALY, and CA$102 477 per QALY for the comparison of lapatinib plus letrozole vs letrozole alone, trastuzumab plus anastrozole, and anastrozole alone, respectively. Results of the model testing were quite similar to those obtained by Delea et al., who also assessed the cost-effectiveness of lapatinib in combination with letrozole in HR+/HER2 + MBC in Canada, thus suggesting that the GPMBC model can replicate results of well-conducted economic evaluations. Conclusions The GPMBC model can be very valuable as it allows a quick and valid assessment of the cost

  2. Assessing economic consequences of foot disorders in dairy cattle using a dynamic stochastic simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruijnis, M.R.N.; Hogeveen, H.; Stassen, E.N.

    2010-01-01

    Foot disorders are an important health problem in dairy cattle, in terms of economics and animal welfare. The incidence, severity, and duration of foot disorders account for their importance. Prevalence of both subclinical and clinical foot disorders is high. More insight into the economic

  3. Economic communication model set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvereva, Olga M.; Berg, Dmitry B.

    2017-06-01

    This paper details findings from the research work targeted at economic communications investigation with agent-based models usage. The agent-based model set was engineered to simulate economic communications. Money in the form of internal and external currencies was introduced into the models to support exchanges in communications. Every model, being based on the general concept, has its own peculiarities in algorithm and input data set since it was engineered to solve the specific problem. Several and different origin data sets were used in experiments: theoretic sets were estimated on the basis of static Leontief's equilibrium equation and the real set was constructed on the basis of statistical data. While simulation experiments, communication process was observed in dynamics, and system macroparameters were estimated. This research approved that combination of an agent-based and mathematical model can cause a synergetic effect.

  4. Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

    1987-01-01

    A recent review of existing models and methods for assessing potential consequences of accidents in the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system identifies economic consequence assessment methods as a weak point. Existing methods have mostly been designed to assess economic consequences of reactor accidents, the possible scale of which can be several orders of magnitude greater than anything possible in the HLW disposal system. There is therefore some question about the applicability of these methods, their assumptions, and their level of detail to assessments of smaller accidents. The US Dept. of Energy funded this study to determine needs for code modifications or model development for assessing economic costs of accidents in the HLW disposal system. The objectives of the study were as follows: (1) review the literature on economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the HLW disposal system before closure. (2) Determine needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system. (3) Gather data that might be useful for the needed revisions for modeling economic impacts on this scale

  5. Assessing links between energy consumption, freight transport, and economic growth: evidence from dynamic simultaneous equation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasreen, Samia; Saidi, Samir; Ozturk, Ilhan

    2018-06-01

    We investigate this study to examine the relationship between economic growth, freight transport, and energy consumption for 63 developing countries over the period of 1990-2016. In order to make the panel data analysis more homogeneous, we apply the income level of countries to divide the global panel into three sub-panels, namely, lower-middle income countries (LMIC), upper-middle income countries (UMIC), and high-income countries (HIC). Using the generalized method of moments (GMM), the results prove evidence of bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and freight transport for all selected panels and between economic growth and energy consumption for the high- and upper-middle income panels. For the lower-middle income panel, the causality is unidirectional running from energy consumption to economic growth. Also, the results indicate that the relationship between freight transport and energy use is bidirectional for the high-income countries and unidirectional from freight transport to energy consumption for the upper-middle and lower-middle income countries. Empirical evidence demonstrates the importance of energy for economic activity and rejects the neo-classical assumption that energy is neutral for growth. An important policy recommendation is that there is need of advancements in vehicle technology which can reduce energy intensity from transport sector and improve the energy efficiency in transport activity which in turn allows a greater positive role of transport in global economic activity.

  6. Economic filters for evaluating porphyry copper deposit resource assessments using grade-tonnage deposit models, with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey global mineral resource assessment: Chapter H in Global mineral resource assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Gilpin R.; Menzie, W. David

    2012-01-01

    An analysis of the amount and location of undiscovered mineral resources that are likely to be economically recoverable is important for assessing the long-term adequacy and availability of mineral supplies. This requires an economic evaluation of estimates of undiscovered resources generated by traditional resource assessments (Singer and Menzie, 2010). In this study, simplified engineering cost models were used to estimate the economic fraction of resources contained in undiscovered porphyry copper deposits, predicted in a global assessment of copper resources. The cost models of Camm (1991) were updated with a cost index to reflect increases in mining and milling costs since 1989. The updated cost models were used to perform an economic analysis of undiscovered resources estimated in porphyry copper deposits in six tracts located in North America. The assessment estimated undiscovered porphyry copper deposits within 1 kilometer of the land surface in three depth intervals.

  7. Bio-economic farm modelling for integrated assessment of agricultural and environmental policies: towards re-usability and improved empirical validity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanellopoulos, A.

    2010-01-01

    Keywords: integrated assessment, environmental policy, agricultural policy, market liberalization, bio-economic model, farming systems, mathematical programming, maximum entropy estimation, data envelopment analysis, agricultural activity, land use, future studies.

    The main objective of

  8. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Epiney, Aaron Simon; Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

    2016-01-01

    Continued effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2016. The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status of their progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, a synthetic time history generator has been developed in RAVEN, which consists of Fourier series and autoregressive moving average model. The former is used to capture the seasonal trend in historical data, while the latter is to characterize the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). As demonstration, both synthetic wind speed and grid demand are generated, showing matching statistics with database. In order to build a design and operations optimizer in RAVEN, a new type of sampler has been developed with highly object-oriented design. In particular, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm is implemented. The optimizer is capable to drive the model to optimize a scalar objective function without constraint in the input space, while the constraints handling is a work in progress and will be implemented to improve the optimization capability. Furthermore, a simplified cash flow model of the performance of an NHES in the electric market has been developed in Python and used as external model in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces. Finally, an example calculation is performed that shows the integration and proper data passing in RAVEN of the synthetic time history generator, the cash flow model and the optimizer. It has been shown that the developed Python models external to RAVEN are able to communicate with RAVEN and each other through the newly developed RAVEN capability called “EnsembleModel”.

  9. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epiney, Aaron Simon [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Chen, Jun [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Continued effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2016. The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status of their progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, a synthetic time history generator has been developed in RAVEN, which consists of Fourier series and autoregressive moving average model. The former is used to capture the seasonal trend in historical data, while the latter is to characterize the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). As demonstration, both synthetic wind speed and grid demand are generated, showing matching statistics with database. In order to build a design and operations optimizer in RAVEN, a new type of sampler has been developed with highly object-oriented design. In particular, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm is implemented. The optimizer is capable to drive the model to optimize a scalar objective function without constraint in the input space, while the constraints handling is a work in progress and will be implemented to improve the optimization capability. Furthermore, a simplified cash flow model of the performance of an NHES in the electric market has been developed in Python and used as external model in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces. Finally, an example calculation is performed that shows the integration and proper data passing in RAVEN of the synthetic time history generator, the cash flow model and the optimizer. It has been shown that the developed Python models external to RAVEN are able to communicate with RAVEN and each other through the newly developed RAVEN capability called “EnsembleModel”.

  10. Bio-economic modelling to assess the impact of water pricing policies at the farm level in the Oum Zessar watershed, southern Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeder, H.; Sghaier, M.; Louhchi, P.; Reidsma, P.

    2014-01-01

    For integrated assessment at farm level, the Farm System SIMulator model (FSSIM) was used. FSSIM is a bio-economic model developed for the European context, and was adapted and tested for Tunisian conditions to assess, ex-ante, impacts of water pricing policies at the farm level to the year 2015.

  11. Total environmental impacts of biofuels from corn stover using a hybrid life cycle assessment model combining process life cycle assessment and economic input-output life cycle assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changqi; Huang, Yaji; Wang, Xinye; Tai, Yang; Liu, Lingqin; Liu, Hao

    2018-01-01

    Studies on the environmental analysis of biofuels by fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (BFPH) have so far focused only on the environmental impacts from direct emissions and have included few indirect emissions. The influence of ignoring some indirect emissions on the environmental performance of BFPH has not been well investigated and hence is not really understood. In addition, in order to avoid shifting environmental problems from one medium to another, a comprehensive assessment of environmental impacts caused by the processes must quantify the environmental emissions to all media (air, water, and land) in relation to each life cycle stage. A well-to-wheels assessment of the total environmental impacts resulting from direct emissions and indirect emissions of a BFPH system with corn stover is conducted using a hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) model combining the economic input-output LCA and the process LCA. The Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and other environmental Impacts (TRACI) has been used to estimate the environmental impacts in terms of acidification, eutrophication, global climate change, ozone depletion, human health criteria, photochemical smog formation, ecotoxicity, human health cancer, and human health noncancer caused by 1 MJ biofuel production. Taking account of all the indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the net GHG emissions (81.8 g CO 2 eq/MJ) of the biofuels are still less than those of petroleum-based fuels (94 g CO 2 eq/MJ). Maize production and pyrolysis and hydroprocessing make major contributions to all impact categories except the human health criteria. All impact categories resulting from indirect emissions except eutrophication and smog air make more than 24% contribution to the total environmental impacts. Therefore, the indirect emissions are important and cannot be ignored. Sensitivity analysis has shown that corn stover yield and bio-oil yield affect the total environmental impacts of the biofuels

  12. Health economic modeling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes, and related macrosomia - a pilot evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; van der Beek, Eline M; Garssen, Johan; Nuijten, Mark J C; Uauy, Ricardo D

    2015-01-01

    Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and associated with increased morbidity for mother and child in the perinatal period. Poorly controlled diabetes during pregnancy, pre- pregnancy maternal obesity and/or excessive maternal weight gain during pregnancy are associated with intermittent periods of fetal exposure to hyperglycemia and subsequent hyperinsulinemia, leading to increased birth weight (e.g., macrosomia), body adiposity, and glycogen storage in the liver. Macrosomia is associated with an increased risk of developing obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus later in life. Provide insight in the short-term health-economic impact of maternal overweight, GDM, and related macrosomia. To this end, a health economic framework was designed. This pilot study also aims to encourage further health technology assessments, based on country- and population-specific data. The estimation of the direct health-economic burden of maternal overweight, GDM and related macrosomia indicates that associated healthcare expenditures are substantial. The calculation of a budget impact of GDM, based on a conservative approach of our model, using USA costing data, indicates an annual cost of more than $1,8 billion without taking into account long-term consequences. Although overweight and obesity are a recognized concern worldwide, less attention has been given to the health economic consequences of these conditions in women of child-bearing age and their offspring. The presented outcomes underline the need for preventive management strategies and public health interventions on life style, diet and physical activity. Also, the predisposition in people of Asian ethnicity to develop diabetes emphasizes the urgent need to collect more country

  13. Modeling recent economic debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skiadas, Christos H.

    The previous years' disaster in the stock markets all over the world and the resulting economic crisis lead to serious criticisms of the various models used. It was evident that large fluctuations and sudden losses may occur even in the case of a well organized and supervised context as it looks to be the European Union. In order to explain the economic systems, we explore models of interacting and conflicting populations. The populations are conflicting into the same environment (a Stock Market or a Group of Countries as the EU). Three models where introduced 1) the Lotka-Volterra 2) the Lanchester or the Richardson model and 3) a new model for two conflicting populations. These models assume immediate interaction between the two conflicting populations. This is usually not the case in a stock market or between countries as delays in the information process arise. The main rules present include mutual interaction between adopters, potential adopters, word-of-mouth communication and of course by taking into consideration the innovation diffusion process. In a previous paper (Skiadas, 2010 [9]) we had proposed and analyzed a model including mutual interaction with delays due to the innovation diffusion process. The model characteristics where expressed by third order terms providing four characteristic symmetric stationary points. In this paper we summarize the previous results and we analyze the case of a non-symmetric case where the leading part receives the information immediately while the second part receives the information following a delay mechanism due to the innovation diffusion process (the spread of information) which can be expressed by a third order term. In the later case the non-symmetric process leads to gains of the leading part while the second part oscillates between gains and losses during time.

  14. Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

    1987-01-01

    This project reviewed the literature on the economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system before closure; determined needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system; and gathered data that might be useful for the needed revisions. 8 refs., 1 tab

  15. Model confirmation in climate economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millner, Antony; McDermott, Thomas K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Benefit–cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth—one of its most important economic components—had questionable predictive power over the 20th century. PMID:27432964

  16. Economic Modelling in Institutional Economic Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wadim Strielkowski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Our paper is centered around the formation of theory of institutional modelling that includes principles and ideas reflecting the laws of societal development within the framework of institutional economic theory. We scrutinize and discuss the scientific principles of this institutional modelling that are increasingly postulated by the classics of institutional theory and find their way into the basics of the institutional economics. We propose scientific ideas concerning the new innovative approaches to institutional modelling. These ideas have been devised and developed on the basis of the results of our own original design, as well as on the formalisation and measurements of economic institutions, their functioning and evolution. Moreover, we consider the applied aspects of the institutional theory of modelling and employ them in our research for formalizing our results and maximising the practical outcome of our paper. Our results and findings might be useful for the researchers and stakeholders searching for the systematic and comprehensive description of institutional level modelling, the principles involved in this process and the main provisions of the institutional theory of economic modelling.

  17. Stochastic modelling to assess economic effects of treatment of chronic subclinical mastitis caused by Streptococcus uberis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steeneveld, W.; Swinkels, J.; Hogeveen, H.

    2007-01-01

    Chronic subclinical mastitis is usually not treated during the lactation. However, some veterinarians regard treatment of some types of subclinical mastitis to be effective. The goal of this research was to develop a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model to support decisions around treatment of

  18. Mathematical programming models for the economic design and assessment of wind energy conversion systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinert, K. A.

    The use of linear decision rules (LDR) and chance constrained programming (CCP) to optimize the performance of wind energy conversion clusters coupled to storage systems is described. Storage is modelled by LDR and output by CCP. The linear allocation rule and linear release rule prescribe the size and optimize a storage facility with a bypass. Chance constraints are introduced to explicitly treat reliability in terms of an appropriate value from an inverse cumulative distribution function. Details of deterministic programming structure and a sample problem involving a 500 kW and a 1.5 MW WECS are provided, considering an installed cost of $1/kW. Four demand patterns and three levels of reliability are analyzed for optimizing the generator choice and the storage configuration for base load and peak operating conditions. Deficiencies in ability to predict reliability and to account for serial correlations are noted in the model, which is concluded useful for narrowing WECS design options.

  19. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  20. Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Ho-Chul; Park, Jin-Won; Kim, Ho-Seok; Shin, Eui-Soon

    2005-01-01

    As a measure to establish a climate-friendly energy system, Korean government has proposed to expand landfill gas (LFG) electricity generation capacity. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of LFG electricity generation on the energy market, the cost of generating electricity and greenhouse gases emissions in Korea using a computer-based software tool called 'Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system' (LEAP) and the associated 'Technology and Environmental Database'. In order to compare LFG electricity generation with existing other generating facilities, business as usual scenario of existing power plants was surveyed, and then alternative scenario investigations were performed using LEAP model. Different alternative scenarios were considered, namely the base case with existing electricity facilities, technological improvement of gas engine and LFG maximum utilization potential with different options of gas engine (GE), gas turbine (GT), and steam turbine (ST). In the technological improvement scenario, there will be 2.86 GWh or more increase in electricity output, decrease of 45 million won (Exchange rate (1$=1200 won)). in costs, and increase of 10.3 thousand ton of CO 2 in global warming potentials due to same period (5 year) of technological improvement. In the maximum utilization potential scenario, LFG electricity generation technology is substituted for coal steam, nuclear, and combined cycle process. Annual cost per electricity product of LFG electricity facilities (GE 58MW, GT 53.5MW, and ST 54.5MW) are 45.1, 34.3, and 24.4 won/kWh, and steam turbine process is cost-saving. LFG-utilization with other forms of energy utilization reduces global warming potential by maximum 75% with compared to spontaneous emission of CH 4 . LFG electricity generation would be the good solution for CO 2 displacement over the medium term and additional energy profits

  1. Stimulating fuelwood consumption through public policies: An assessment of economic and resource impacts based on the French Forest Sector Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caurla, Sylvain; Delacote, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Barkaoui, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Stimulating renewable energy is a crucial objective in view of tackling climate change and coping with future fossil fuel scarcity. In France, fuelwood appears to be an important source for the renewable energy mix. Using the French Forest Sector Model, our paper aims to assess the impacts of three policy options to stimulate fuelwood consumption: a consumer subsidy, a producer subsidy and a fixed-demand contract policy. We explored their impacts in terms of five groups of criteria: (1) forest resource dynamics; (2) variations in wood products prices and quantities consumed and produced; (3) trade balance; (4) budgetary costs; and (5) variations in agent surpluses. We show that no policy option is more desirable than another on the basis of all of these criteria and that trade-offs will determine which is the best policy option to be implemented. - Highlights: • We compare the bio-economic impacts of policies to boost fuelwood consumption in France. • We simulate a producer subsidy, a consumer subsidy and fixed public demand contracts. • We explore their impacts until 2020 with a dynamic model of the forest sector. • Producer subsidy reduces the trade balance deficit and decreases forest stock. • Consumer subsidy increases consumer welfare and public contracts reduce budgetary costs

  2. Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kinoshita, Robert Arthur [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kim, Jong Suk [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Deason, Wesley Ray [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Boardman, Richard Doin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Garcia, Humberto E. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    An effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year 2015 (FY15). The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status on its progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, starting from a simulation strategy, a rigorous mathematical formulation has been achieved in which the economic optimization of a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System is presented as a constrained robust (under uncertainty) optimization problem. Some possible algorithms for the solution of the optimization problem are presented. A variation of the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation algorithm has been implemented in RAVEN and preliminary tests have been performed. The development of the software infrastructure to support the simulation of the whole NHES has also moved forward. The coupling between RAVEN and an implementation of the Modelica language (OpenModelica) has been implemented, migrated under several operating systems and tested using an adapted model of a desalination plant. In particular, this exercise was focused on testing the coupling of the different code systems; testing parallel, computationally expensive simulations on the INL cluster; and providing a proof of concept for the possibility of using surrogate models to represent the different NHES subsystems. Another important step was the porting of the RAVEN code under the Windows™ operating system. This accomplishment makes RAVEN compatible with the development environment that is being used for dynamic simulation of NHES components. A very simplified model of a NHES on the electric market has been built in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces even for stochastic constraints. This

  3. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  4. Economic Growth Models Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coralia Angelescu

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The transitional recession in countries of Eastern Europe has been much longer than expected. The legacy and recent policy mistakes have both contributed to the slow progress. As structural reforms and gradual institution building have taken hold, the post-socialist economics have started to recover, with some leading countries building momentum toward faster growth. There is a possibility that in wider context of globalization several of these emerging market economies will be able to catch up with the more advanced industrial economies in a matter of one or two generations. Over the past few years, most candidate countries have made progress in the transition to a competitive market economy, macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform. However their income levels have remained far below those in the Member States. Measured by per capita income in purchasing power standards, there has been a very limited amount of catching up over the past fourteen years. Prior, the distinctions between Solow-Swan model and endogenous growth model. The interdependence between transition and integration are stated in this study. Finally, some measures of macroeconomic policy for sustainable growth are proposed in correlation with real macroeconomic situation of the Romanian economy. Our study would be considered the real convergence for the Romanian economy and the recommendations for the adequate policies to achieve a fast real convergence and sustainable growth.

  5. Ozonation of hospital raw wastewaters for cytostatic compounds removal. Kinetic modelling and economic assessment of the process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferre-Aracil, J. [Universitat Politècnica de València – EPSA, Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering. Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety (ISIRYM), Pl. Ferrandiz i Carbonell, 03801 Alcoi, Alicante (Spain); Valcárcel, Y. [Environmental Health and Ecotoxicology Research Group, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Avd. Atenas s/n, Móstoles, 28922 Alcorcón (Spain); Negreira, N.; López de Alda, M. [Water and Soil Quality Research Group, Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), C/ Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034 Barcelona (Spain); Barceló, D. [Water and Soil Quality Research Group, Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA-CSIC), C/ Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034 Barcelona (Spain); Catalan Institute for Water Research (ICRA), H2O Building, Scientific and Technological Park of the University of Girona, Emili Grahit 101, 17003 Girona (Spain); Cardona, S.C. [Universitat Politècnica de València – EPSA, Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering. Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety (ISIRYM), Pl. Ferrandiz i Carbonell, 03801 Alcoi, Alicante (Spain); Navarro-Laboulais, J., E-mail: jnavarla@iqn.upv.es [Universitat Politècnica de València – EPSA, Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering. Institute for Industrial, Radiophysical and Environmental Safety (ISIRYM), Pl. Ferrandiz i Carbonell, 03801 Alcoi, Alicante (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    The kinetics of the ozone consumption for the pretreatment of hospital wastewater has been analysed in order to determine the reaction rate coefficients between the ozone and the readily oxidisabled organic matter and cytostatic compounds. The wastewater from a medium size hospital was treated with ozone and peroxone methodologies, varying the ozone concentration, the reaction time and the hydrogen peroxide doses. The analysis shows that there are four cytostatic compounds, i.e. irinotecan, ifosfamide, cyclophosphamide and capecitabine, detected in the wastewaters and they are completely removed with reasonably short times after the ozone treatment. Considering the reactor geometry, the gas hydrodynamics, the mass transfer of ozone from gas to liquid and the reaction of all oxidisable compounds of the wastewater it is possible to determine the chemical ozone demand, COzD, of the sample as 256 mg O{sub 3} L{sup −1} and the kinetic rate coefficient with the dissolved organic matter as 8.4 M{sup −1} s{sup −1}. The kinetic rate coefficient between the ozone and the cyclophosphamide is in the order of 34.7 M{sup −1} s{sup −1} and higher for the other cytostatics. The direct economic cost of the treatment was evaluated considering this reaction kinetics and it is below 0.3 €/m{sup 3} under given circumstances. - Highlights: • 17 cytostatic compounds were analysed and 4 detected by SPE-LC/MS-MS. • The ozonation is 100% effective on the removal of the detected cytostatics. • The kinetics of cytostatic ozonation reaction is modeled by competitive kinetics. • The economic cost of the treatment of hospital wastewater was assessed.

  6. Ozonation of hospital raw wastewaters for cytostatic compounds removal. Kinetic modelling and economic assessment of the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferre-Aracil, J.; Valcárcel, Y.; Negreira, N.; López de Alda, M.; Barceló, D.; Cardona, S.C.; Navarro-Laboulais, J.

    2016-01-01

    The kinetics of the ozone consumption for the pretreatment of hospital wastewater has been analysed in order to determine the reaction rate coefficients between the ozone and the readily oxidisabled organic matter and cytostatic compounds. The wastewater from a medium size hospital was treated with ozone and peroxone methodologies, varying the ozone concentration, the reaction time and the hydrogen peroxide doses. The analysis shows that there are four cytostatic compounds, i.e. irinotecan, ifosfamide, cyclophosphamide and capecitabine, detected in the wastewaters and they are completely removed with reasonably short times after the ozone treatment. Considering the reactor geometry, the gas hydrodynamics, the mass transfer of ozone from gas to liquid and the reaction of all oxidisable compounds of the wastewater it is possible to determine the chemical ozone demand, COzD, of the sample as 256 mg O 3 L −1 and the kinetic rate coefficient with the dissolved organic matter as 8.4 M −1 s −1 . The kinetic rate coefficient between the ozone and the cyclophosphamide is in the order of 34.7 M −1 s −1 and higher for the other cytostatics. The direct economic cost of the treatment was evaluated considering this reaction kinetics and it is below 0.3 €/m 3 under given circumstances. - Highlights: • 17 cytostatic compounds were analysed and 4 detected by SPE-LC/MS-MS. • The ozonation is 100% effective on the removal of the detected cytostatics. • The kinetics of cytostatic ozonation reaction is modeled by competitive kinetics. • The economic cost of the treatment of hospital wastewater was assessed.

  7. Contribution to the economic impact assessment of policy options to regulate animal cloning for food production with an economic simulation model

    OpenAIRE

    Koen Dillen; Emanuele Ferrari; Pascal Tillie; George Philippidis; Sophie Helaine

    2013-01-01

    The EU is currently evaluating different policy options towards the use of cloning or products derived from cloned animals in the food chain. This study presents a first attempt to quantify the likely effects of different policy scenarios on international trade and EU domestic production. In the context of the Impact Asessment process the JRC was requested to simulate via a modelling study the economic impact of selected policy options. Based on a literature review and the specific constra...

  8. Preliminary Economic Assessment of KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Kee-Hwan; Kim, Seung-Su; Hahn, Do-Hee

    2008-01-01

    The GIF(GEN IV International Forum) established an Economic Modelling Working Group(EMWG) in 2003 to create economic models and guidelines to facilitate in a future evaluation of the Generation IV nuclear energy systems and assess progress toward the GIF economic goals. These goals are to have a life cycle cost advantage over other energy sources, and to have a level of financial risk comparable to other energy projects. To do this, EMWG has been developed the G4-ECONS model, which is a generic EXCEL-based model for computation of the projected levelized unit electricity cost and/or levelized non-electricity unit product cost from GEN IV energy systems. KALIMER-600 has been developed as a new design concept based on the KALIMER-150 design. KALIMER-600 is a unique design concept which has a potential to achieve GEN IV technology goals even though there is a room for a design improvement in order to make the KALIMER-600 more competitive with future generation reactors. The objective of this study is to the assess economics of KALIMER-600 by using the G4-ECONS model

  9. A combined model to assess technical and economic consequences of changing conditions and management options for wastewater utilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giessler, Mathias; Tränckner, Jens

    2018-02-01

    The paper presents a simplified model that quantifies economic and technical consequences of changing conditions in wastewater systems on utility level. It has been developed based on data from stakeholders and ministries, collected by a survey that determined resulting effects and adapted measures. The model comprises all substantial cost relevant assets and activities of a typical German wastewater utility. It consists of three modules: i) Sewer for describing the state development of sewer systems, ii) WWTP for process parameter consideration of waste water treatment plants (WWTP) and iii) Cost Accounting for calculation of expenses in the cost categories and resulting charges. Validity and accuracy of this model was verified by using historical data from an exemplary wastewater utility. Calculated process as well as economic parameters shows a high accuracy compared to measured parameters and given expenses. Thus, the model is proposed to support strategic, process oriented decision making on utility level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Economic analysis model for total energy and economic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoji, Katsuhiko; Yasukawa, Shigeru; Sato, Osamu

    1980-09-01

    This report describes framing an economic analysis model developed as a tool of total energy systems. To prospect and analyze future energy systems, it is important to analyze the relation between energy system and economic structure. We prepared an economic analysis model which was suited for this purpose. Our model marks that we can analyze in more detail energy related matters than other economic ones, and can forecast long-term economic progress rather than short-term economic fluctuation. From view point of economics, our model is longterm multi-sectoral economic analysis model of open Leontief type. Our model gave us appropriate results for fitting test and forecasting estimation. (author)

  11. Integrated assessment of policy interventions for promoting sustainable irrigation in semi-arid environments: a hydro-economic modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Purkey, David R

    2013-10-15

    Sustaining irrigated agriculture to meet food production needs while maintaining aquatic ecosystems is at the heart of many policy debates in various parts of the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. Researchers and practitioners are increasingly calling for integrated approaches, and policy-makers are progressively supporting the inclusion of ecological and social aspects in water management programs. This paper contributes to this policy debate by providing an integrated economic-hydrologic modeling framework that captures the socio-economic and environmental effects of various policy initiatives and climate variability. This modeling integration includes a risk-based economic optimization model and a hydrologic water management simulation model that have been specified for the Middle Guadiana basin, a vulnerable drought-prone agro-ecological area with highly regulated river systems in southwest Spain. Namely, two key water policy interventions were investigated: the implementation of minimum environmental flows (supported by the European Water Framework Directive, EU WFD), and a reduction in the legal amount of water delivered for irrigation (planned measure included in the new Guadiana River Basin Management Plan, GRBMP, still under discussion). Results indicate that current patterns of excessive water use for irrigation in the basin may put environmental flow demands at risk, jeopardizing the WFD's goal of restoring the 'good ecological status' of water bodies by 2015. Conflicts between environmental and agricultural water uses will be stressed during prolonged dry episodes, and particularly in summer low-flow periods, when there is an important increase of crop irrigation water requirements. Securing minimum stream flows would entail a substantial reduction in irrigation water use for rice cultivation, which might affect the profitability and economic viability of small rice-growing farms located upstream in the river. The new GRBMP could contribute

  12. Economic impact of clinical mastitis in a dairy herd assessed by stochastic simulation using different methods to model yield losses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagnestam-Nielsen, Christel; Østergaard, Søren

    2009-01-01

    The main aim of the present study was to examine the economic consequences of a reduction in the incidence of clinical mastitis (CM) at herd level under current Swedish farming conditions. A second objective was to ask whether the estimated cost of CM alters depending upon whether the model...... with 150 cows (9000 kg of energy-corrected milk per cow-year). Four herd types, defined by production level and reproductive performance, were modelled to investigate possible interactions between herd type and response to a reduction in the risk of CM. Technical and economic results, given the initial...... incidence of CM (25.6 per 100 cow-years), were studied together with the consequences of reducing the initial risk of CM by 50% and 90% throughout lactation and the consequences of reducing the initial risk by 50% and 90% before peak yield. A conventional way of modelling yield losses - i.e. one employing...

  13. The Economic Benefits of Generation Revenue Assessment in Pool-Based Market Model for Restructured Electricity Supply Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ngadiron Zuraidah

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The electricity supply industry had undergo deregulation and restructuring toward becoming a more transparent and competitive electricity market environment. The pool market model is amongst the most preferred electricity market model. Even though it is a safe option to be more competitive and transparent electricity supply industry, there are issues on the welfare of the generators involved. This paper addresses the pricing issue in the pool market by extending the capacity payment mechanism in the single auction power pool. In the proposed model, the approach of minimum capacity payment involving the efficiency of the generators is introduced. A case study is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. An economic analysis is performed to highlight the merits of the proposed model with the pure pool in term of generation revenue.

  14. A health economic model to assess the cost-effectiveness of OPTIFAST® for the treatment of obesity in USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuijten, Mark; Marczewska, Agnieszka; Araujo Torress, Krysmaru; Rasouli, Bahareh; Perugini, Moreno

    2018-04-20

    Obesity is associated with high direct medical costs and indirect costs resulting from productivity loss. High prevalence of obesity generates a justified need to identify cost-effective weight loss approaches from a payer's perspective. Within the variety of weight management techniques, OPTIFAST ® is a clinically recognized and scientifically proven total meal replacement Low Calorie Diet that provides meaningful results in terms of weight loss and reduction in comorbidities. The objective of this study is assess potential cost-savings of OPTIFAST ® program in the USA, as compared to "no intervention" and pharmacotherapy. An event-driven decision analytic model was used to estimate payer's cost-savings from reimbursement of the 1-year OPTIFAST ® program over 3 years in the USA. The analysis was performed for the broad population of obese persons (BMI >30 kg/m 2 ) undergoing the OPTIFAST ® program versus liraglutide 3 mg, naltrexone/bupropion and versus "no intervention". The model included risk of complications related to increased BMI. Data sources included published literature, clinical trials, official USA price/tariff lists and national population statistics. The primary perspective was that of a USA payer; costs provided in 2016 US dollars. OPTIFAST ® leads over a period of 3 years to cost-savings of USD 9,285 per class I and II obese patient (BMI 30-39.9 kg/m 2 ) as compared to liraglutide and USD 685 as compared to naltrexone/bupropion. In the same time perspective, the OPTIFAST ® program leads to a reduction of cost of obesity complications of USD 1,951 as compared to "no intervention" with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD 6,475 per QALY. Scenario analyses show also substantial cost-savings in patients with class III obesity (BMI ≥40.0 kg/m 2 ) and patients with obesity (BMI 30-39.9 kg/m2) and type 2 diabetes versus all three previous comparators and bariatric surgery. Reimbursing OPTIFAST ® leads to meaningful cost

  15. An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollitt, Hector; Park, Seung-Joon; Lee, Soocheol; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econometric E3MG model. Our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to Japanese GDP is close to zero, and for employment the impact is slightly positive. Our results also show a double-dividend effect if (revenue-neutral) carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the GHG reduction targets, and this double-dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power. However, our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25% reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power. - Highlights: • We modelled 12 scenarios for Japan with different shares for nuclear power and different emission targets. • The results showed that phasing out nuclear power would have at most a very small reduction in GDP. • If a carbon tax with revenue recycling is applied, there could be an increase in GDP. • But the carbon price required to meet Japan's 25% emission reduction target is very high if the share of nuclear power is reduced

  16. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Assessing economic tradeoffs in forest management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernie Niemi; Ed. Whitelaw

    1999-01-01

    Method is described for assessing the competing demands for forest resources in a forest management plan by addressing economics values, economic impacts, and perceptions of fairness around each demand. Economics trends and forces that shape the dynamic ecosystem-economy relation are developed. The method is demonstrated through an illustrative analysis of a forest-...

  18. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  19. ECONOMIC MODELING PROCESSES USING MATLAB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria G. MACOVEI

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available To study economic phenomena and processes using mathem atical modeling, and to determine the approximatesolution to a problem we need to choose a method of calculation and a numerical computer program, namely thepackage of programs MatLab. Any economic process or phenomenon is a mathematical description of h is behavior,and thus draw up an economic and mathematical model that has the following stages: formulation of the problem, theanalysis process modeling, the production model and design verification, validation and implementation of the model.This article is presented an economic model and its modeling is using mathematical equations and software packageMatLab, which helps us approximation effective solution. As data entry is considered the net cost, the cost of direct andtotal cost and the link between them. I presented the basic formula for determining the total cost. Economic modelcalculations were made in MatLab software package and with graphic representation of its interpretation of the resultsachieved in terms of our specific problem.

  20. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  1. Innovative energy technologies in energy-economy models: assessing economic, energy and environmental impacts of climate policy and technological change in Germany.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, K.

    2007-04-18

    Energy technologies and innovation are considered to play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Yet, the representation of technologies in energy-economy models, which are used extensively to analyze the economic, energy and environmental impacts of alternative energy and climate policies, is rather limited. This dissertation presents advanced techniques of including technological innovations in energy-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. New methods are explored and applied for improving the realism of energy production and consumption in such top-down models. The dissertation addresses some of the main criticism of general equilibrium models in the field of energy and climate policy analysis: The lack of detailed sectoral and technical disaggregation, the restricted view on innovation and technological change, and the lack of extended greenhouse gas mitigation options. The dissertation reflects on the questions of (1) how to introduce innovation and technological change in a computable general equilibrium model as well as (2) what additional and policy relevant information is gained from using these methodologies. Employing a new hybrid approach of incorporating technology-specific information for electricity generation and iron and steel production in a dynamic multi-sector computable equilibrium model it can be concluded that technology-specific effects are crucial for the economic assessment of climate policy, in particular the effects relating to process shifts and fuel input structure. Additionally, the dissertation shows that learning-by-doing in renewable energy takes place in the renewable electricity sector but is equally important in upstream sectors that produce technologies, i.e. machinery and equipment, for renewable electricity generation. The differentiation of learning effects in export sectors, such as renewable energy technologies, matters for the economic assessment of climate policies because of effects on international

  2. The integrated economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syrota, J.; Cirelli, J.F.; Brimont, S.; Lyle, C.; Nossent, G.; Moraleda, P.

    2005-01-01

    The setting up of the European energy market has triggered a radical change of the context within with the energy players operated. The natural markets of the incumbent operators, which were formerly demarcated by national and even regional borders, have extended to at least the scale of the European Union. In addition to their geographical development strategy, gas undertakings are diversifying their portfolios towards both upstream as well as downstream activities of the gas chain, and/or extending their offers to other energies and services. Energy players' strategies are rather complex and sometimes give the impression that of being based on contradictory decisions. Some operators widen their field of operations, whereas others specialize in a limited number of activities. This Round Table provides an opportunity to compare business models as adopted by the major gas undertakings in response to structural changes observed in various countries over recent years

  3. An economic assessment of low carbon vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Summerton, P. [Cambridge Econometrics CE, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Harrison, P. [European Climate Foundation ECF, Brussels (Belgium)] (eds.)

    2013-03-15

    The study aimed to analyse the economic impacts of decarbonizing light duty vehicles. As part of the study, the impacts of the European Commissions proposed 2020 CO2 regulation for cars and vans have been assessed. The analysis showed that a shift to low-carbon vehicles would increase spending on vehicle technology, therefore generating positive direct employment impacts, but potentially adding 1,000-1,100 euro to the capital cost of the average new car in 2020. However, these additional technology costs would be offset by fuel savings of around 400 euro per year, indicating an effective break-even point for drivers of approximately three years. At the EU level, the cost of running and maintaining the European car fleet would become 33-35 billion euro lower each year than in a 'do nothing scenario' by 2030, leading to positive economic impacts including indirect employment gains. Data on the cost of low carbon vehicle technologies has largely been sourced from the auto industry itself, with the study supported by a core working group including Nissan, GE, the European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA), and the European Storage Battery Manufacturers Association (Eurobat). Fuel price projections for the study were based on the IEA's World Energy Outlook, while technical modelling was carried out using the transport policy scoping tool SULTAN (developed by Ricardo-AEA for the European Commission) and the Road Vehicle Cost and Efficiency Calculation Framework, also developed by Ricardo-AEA. Macro-economic modelling was done using the E3ME model, which has previously been used for several European Commission and EU government impact assessments. This report focuses on efficient use of fossil fuels in internal combustion- and hybrid electric vehicles. It will be followed by a second report, which will focus on further reducing the use of fossil fuels by also substituting them with domestically produced energy carriers, such as electricity and

  4. The modelling of economic consequences in COSYMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faude, D.

    1991-01-01

    A new model for assessing the economic consequences of accidents, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site) has been developed jointly by NRPB and KfK under the CEC MARIA programme. This paper describes the way in which this model, together with other options, has been implemented in the ECONOMICS module of COSYMA. For consistency with the other parts of COSYMA, the coding of the ECONOMICS module is flexible: in several areas, alternative calculational methods are available and the user may select the method by which a particular cost is calculated. To some extent, economic models other than the COCO-1 model may be applied. There are two types of input data in the ECONOMICS module. These are (1) data from preceding COSYMA modules which quantify the magnitude and distribution of health effects and the impact of countermeasures, and (2) economic data, in terms of costs per unit quantity, to convert the preceding data into monetary values. The structure of the module has been determined by the form and availability of the input data, and the general structure of COSYMA. Details of the method of calculation, and the necessary input data, are discussed, for calculation of the economic consequences of the countermeasures considered in COSYMA (evacuation, relocation, sheltering, decontamination and food bans) and for early and late health effects

  5. An assessment of the adaptability and validity of the SocioEconomic Analysis of Repository Siting (SEARS) Modeling System: Summary report: Draft report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murdock, S.H.; Leistritz, F.L.; Hamm, R.R.

    1984-01-01

    This report presents a summary of results of an assessment of the adaptability, sensitivity, and accuracy of the SEARS model. Specifically, after describing the methods used in the analysis, the report presents a discussion of each aspect of the model evaluation process. The adaptation of the system to three states (Louisiana, Wyoming, and Texas) is described in light of the three key aspects of model transfer: collection and preparation of input data, model code alterations, and resources required. The second major topic discussed is the sensitivity analysis, which consisted of evaluations of the model's ability to simulate the impact process and to show the expected the acuracy of the model. This analysis consisted of the projection of economic and demographic factors from 1970 to 1980, using data inputs for 1970, followed by comparisons of the model's projections to reported values from the 1980 Census and similar sources for regions, counties and cities in the three states. The analyses described in this report thus provide a comprehensive assessment of the SEARS methodology and one of the most complete and comprehensive assessments ever performed of the validity of a socioeconomic assessment model. 44 refs., 6 tabs

  6. The Modeling of the Processes of Assessment and Analysis of the Level of Socio-Ecological-Economic Development of a Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilko Andriy D.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There presented results of the research of existing scientific and methodological, and theoretical approaches to management of the socio-ecological-economic development of a region with subsequent definition of priorities of the regional policy taking into account the concepts of security and development. Based on the study of literature sources and the analysis of the available statistical base, the problem of assessing the level of social, economic, ecological development, the level of sustainable development and the degree of harmonization of sustainable development of territorial systems of a region is formulated, and a possible method of its solution is suggested. The direction and nature of the cause-effect relationships between social tension and the levels of economic, environmental, social development and the level of sustainable development of a region are determined. There proposed a scheme to build models for assessing the effectiveness of levers for managing social, economic and environmental processes at the level of territorial systems in a region, taking into account the level of social tension and indicators of the investment component of development.

  7. Assessing climate change and associated socio-economic scenarios for arable farming in the Netherlands: An application of benchmarking and bio-economic farm modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanellopoulos, A.; Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2014-01-01

    Future farming systems are challenged to adapt to the changing socio-economic and bio-physical environment in order to remain competitive and to meet the increasing requirements for food and fibres. The scientific challenge is to evaluate the consequences of predefined scenarios, identify current

  8. Economic model of pipeline transportation systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, W. F.

    1977-07-29

    The objective of the work reported here was to develop a model which could be used to assess the economic effects of energy-conservative technological innovations upon the pipeline industry. The model is a dynamic simulator which accepts inputs of two classes: the physical description (design parameters, fluid properties, and financial structures) of the system to be studied, and the postulated market (throughput and price) projection. The model consists of time-independent submodels: the fluidics model which simulates the physical behavior of the system, and the financial model which operates upon the output of the fluidics model to calculate the economics outputs. Any of a number of existing fluidics models can be used in addition to that developed as a part of this study. The financial model, known as the Systems, Science and Software (S/sup 3/) Financial Projection Model, contains user options whereby pipeline-peculiar characteristics can be removed and/or modified, so that the model can be applied to virtually any kind of business enterprise. The several dozen outputs are of two classes: the energetics and the economics. The energetics outputs of primary interest are the energy intensity, also called unit energy consumption, and the total energy consumed. The primary economics outputs are the long-run average cost, profit, cash flow, and return on investment.

  9. Mathematical modelling in economic processes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Kravtsova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available In article are considered a number of methods of mathematical modelling of economic processes and opportunities of use of spreadsheets Excel for reception of the optimum decision of tasks or calculation of financial operations with the help of the built-in functions.

  10. Techno-Economics & Life Cycle Assessment (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutta, A.; Davis, R.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) capabilities at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and describes the value of working with NREL on TEA and LCA.

  11. Linking Physical Climate Research and Economic Assessments of Mitigation Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainforth, David; Calel, Raphael

    2017-04-01

    Evaluating climate change policies requires economic assessments which balance the costs and benefits of climate action. A certain class of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) are widely used for this type of analysis; DICE, PAGE and FUND are three of the most influential. In the economics community there has been much discussion and debate about the economic assumptions implemented within these models. Two aspects in particular have gained much attention: i) the costs of damages resulting from climate change - the so-called damage function, and ii) the choice of discount rate applied to future costs and benefits. There has, however, been rather little attention given to the consequences of the choices made in the physical climate models within these IAMS. Here we discuss the practical aspects of the implementation of the physical models in these IAMS, as well as the implications of choices made in these physical science components for economic assessments[1]. We present a simple breakdown of how these IAMS differently represent the climate system as a consequence of differing underlying physical models, different parametric assumptions (for parameters representing, for instance, feedbacks and ocean heat uptake) and different numerical approaches to solving the models. We present the physical and economic consequences of these differences and reflect on how we might better incorporate the latest physical science understanding in economic models of this type. [1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., "On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.

  12. PLANNING AND MODEL CUBAN ECONOMIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenilia Mariela Villalón-Madrazo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the Revolution´s Triumph the country assumes that the planning is the axis, as instrument for the economic acting and of the constant development of the socialist relationships of production and it traces the rules required for the best operation in the Cuban economy, and it implants with these concepts the centralized economic pattern that responded to the existent outline in the Soviet Union and the European socialist countries, of centralized planning based on the material balances. In the current situation of the Cuban economy it is thought about bringing up to date the economic pattern in which will stay as priority the planning and not the market. Leaving what it is mentioned above, presently in this work is carried out the analysis of the economic models in Cuba and its linking with the planning, with the objective of giving to know how the pattern economic Cuban is implanted from the first years of the revolution and it has always been the planning its fundamental axis, and as the same one it has left modernizing during the 53 years of the Revolution. It has been carried out an analysis framed approximately in 10 year-old periods pointing out the internal and external factors that have impacted in the Cuban pattern, their adjustments and the role of planning. 

  13. Energy-economic policy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanstad, Alan H.

    2018-01-01

    Computational models based on economic principles and methods are powerful tools for understanding and analyzing problems in energy and the environment and for designing policies to address them. Among their other features, some current models of this type incorporate information on sustainable energy technologies and can be used to examine their potential role in addressing the problem of global climate change. The underlying principles and the characteristics of the models are summarized, and examples of this class of model and their applications are presented. Modeling epistemology and related issues are discussed, as well as critiques of the models. The paper concludes with remarks on the evolution of the models and possibilities for their continued development.

  14. Efficiency of economic development models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Camelia Iacob

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The world economy is becoming increasingly integrated. Integrating emerging economies of Asia, such as China and India increase competition on the world stage, putting pressure on the "actors" already existing. These developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of European development model, which focuses on a high level of equity, insurance and social protection. According to analysts, the world today faces three models of economic development with significant weight in the world: the European, American and Asian. This study will focus on analyzing European development model, and a brief comparison with the United States. In addition, this study aims to highlight the relationship between efficiency and social equity that occurs in each submodel in part of the European model, given that social and economic performance in the EU are not homogeneous. To achieve this, it is necessary to analyze different indicators related to social equity and efficiency respectively, to observe the performance of each submodel individually. The article analyzes data to determine submodel performance according to social equity and economic efficiency.

  15. Assessing the economic impact of paternal involvement: a comparison of the generalized linear model versus decision analysis trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salihu, Hamisu M; Salemi, Jason L; Nash, Michelle C; Chandler, Kristen; Mbah, Alfred K; Alio, Amina P

    2014-08-01

    Lack of paternal involvement has been shown to be associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including infant morbidity and mortality, but the impact on health care costs is unknown. Various methodological approaches have been used in cost minimization and cost effectiveness analyses and it remains unclear how cost estimates vary according to the analytic strategy adopted. We illustrate a methodological comparison of decision analysis modeling and generalized linear modeling (GLM) techniques using a case study that assesses the cost-effectiveness of potential father involvement interventions. We conducted a 12-year retrospective cohort study using a statewide enhanced maternal-infant database that contains both clinical and nonclinical information. A missing name for the father on the infant's birth certificate was used as a proxy for lack of paternal involvement, the main exposure of this study. Using decision analysis modeling and GLM, we compared all infant inpatient hospitalization costs over the first year of life. Costs were calculated from hospital charges using department-level cost-to-charge ratios and were adjusted for inflation. In our cohort of 2,243,891 infants, 9.2% had a father uninvolved during pregnancy. Lack of paternal involvement was associated with higher rates of preterm birth, small-for-gestational age, and infant morbidity and mortality. Both analytic approaches estimate significantly higher per-infant costs for father uninvolved pregnancies (decision analysis model: $1,827, GLM: $1,139). This paper provides sufficient evidence that healthcare costs could be significantly reduced through enhanced father involvement during pregnancy, and buttresses the call for a national program to involve fathers in antenatal care.

  16. Health economic modelling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes and related macrosomia – a pilot evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene eLenoir-Wijnkoop

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes (GDM and associated with increased morbidity for mother and child in the perinatal period. Poorly controlled diabetes during pregnancy, pre- pregnancy maternal obesity and/or excessive maternal weight gain during pregnancy are associated with intermittent periods of fetal exposure to hyperglycemia and subsequent hyperinsulinemia, leading to increased birth weight (e.g. macrosomia, body adiposity and glycogen storage in the liver. Macrosomia is associated with an increased risk of developing obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus later in life.Objective: Provide insight in the short-term health-economic impact of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes (GDM and related macrosomia. To this end, a health economic framework was designed. This pilot study also aims to encourage further health technology assessments, based on country- and population-specific data. Results: The estimation of the direct health-economic burden of maternal overweight, GDM and related macrosomia indicates that associated healthcare expenditures are substantial. The calculation of a budget impact of GDM, based on a conservative approach of our model, using USA costing data, indicates an annual cost of more than $1,8 billion without taking into account long-term consequences.Conclusion: Although overweight and obesity are a recognized concern worldwide, less attention has been given to the health economic consequences of these conditions in women of child-bearing age and their offspring. The presented outcomes underline the need for preventive management strategies and public health interventions on life style, diet and physical activity. Also, the predisposition in people of Asian ethnicity to develop

  17. Economic assessment and energy model scenarios of municipal solid waste incineration and gas turbine hybrid dual-fueled cycles in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udomsri, Seksan; Martin, Andrew R.; Fransson, Torsten H.

    2010-01-01

    Finding environmentally benign methods related to sound municipal solid waste (MSW) management is of highest priority in Southeast Asia. It is very important to study new approaches which can reduce waste generation and simultaneously enhance energy recovery. One concrete example of particular significance is the concept of hybrid dual-fuel power plants featuring MSW and another high-quality fuel like natural gas. The hybrid dual-fuel cycles provide significantly higher electrical efficiencies than a composite of separate single-fuel power plant (standalone gas turbine combined cycle and MSW incineration). Although hybrid versions are of great importance for energy conversion from MSW, an economic assessment of these systems must be addressed for a realistic appraisal of these technologies. This paper aims to further examine an economic assessment and energy model analysis of different conversion technologies. Energy models are developed to further refine the expected potential of MSW incineration with regards to energy recovery and environmental issues. Results show that MSW incineration can play role for greenhouse gas reduction, energy recovery and waste management. In Bangkok, the electric power production via conventional incineration and hybrid power plants can cover 2.5% and 8% of total electricity consumption, respectively. The hybrid power plants have a relative short payback period (5 years) and can further reduce the CO 2 levels by 3% in comparison with current thermal power plants.

  18. International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-09-01

    International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal energy projects. Building on a similar model for the United States, I-JEDI was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory under the U.S. government's Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support partner countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector.

  19. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darren J. Kriticos; Robert C. Venette; Richard H.A. Baker; Sarah Brunel; Frank H. Koch; Trond Rafoss; Wopke van der Werf; Susan P. Worner

    2013-01-01

    Economic globalization depends on the movement of people and goods between countries. As these exchanges increase, so does the potential for translocation of harmful pests, weeds, and pathogens capable of impacting our crops, livestock and natural resources (Hulme 2009), with concomitant impacts on global food security (Cook et al. 2011).

  20. Health economic modeling to assess short-term costs of maternal overweight, gestational diabetes, and related macrosomia - a pilot evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenoir-Wijnkoop, Irene; van der Beek, Eline M; Garssen, Johan; Nuijten, Mark J C; Uauy, Ricardo D

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite the interest in the impact of overweight and obesity on public health, little is known about the social and economic impact of being born large for gestational age or macrosomic. Both conditions are related to maternal obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and

  1. DUPIC fuel cycle economics assessment (1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, H. B.; Roh, G. H.; Kim, D. H.

    1999-04-01

    This is a state-of-art report that describes the current status of the DUPIC fuel cycle economics analysis conducted by the DUPIC fuel compatibility assessment group of the DUPIC fuel development project. For the DUPIC fuel cycle economics analysis, the DUPIC fuel compatibility assessment group has organized the 1st technical meeting composed of 8 domestic specialists from government, academy, industry, etc. and a foreign specialist of hot-cell design from TRI on July 16, 1998. This report contains the presentation material of the 1st technical meeting, published date used for the economics analysis and opinions of participants, which could be utilized for further DUPIC fuel cycle and back-end fuel cycle economics analyses. (author). 11 refs., 7 charts

  2. Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Challinor, Andrew J [Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Simelton, Elisabeth S; Fraser, Evan D G [Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom); Hemming, Debbie; Collins, Mathew, E-mail: a.j.challinor@leeds.ac.uk [Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB (United Kingdom)

    2010-07-15

    Tools for projecting crop productivity under a range of conditions, and assessing adaptation options, are an important part of the endeavour to prioritize investment in adaptation. We present ensemble projections of crop productivity that account for biophysical processes, inherent uncertainty and adaptation, using spring wheat in Northeast China as a case study. A parallel 'vulnerability index' approach uses quantitative socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation. The simulations show crop failure rates increasing under climate change, due to increasing extremes of both heat and water stress. Crop failure rates increase with mean temperature, with increases in maximum failure rates being greater than those in median failure rates. The results suggest that significant adaptation is possible through either socio-economic measures such as greater investment, or biophysical measures such as drought or heat tolerance in crops. The results also show that adaptation becomes increasingly necessitated as mean temperature and the associated number of extremes rise. The results, and the limitations of this study, also suggest directions for research for linking climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses and crop variety trial data in order to prioritize options such as capacity building, plant breeding and biotechnology.

  3. Geologic coal assessment: The interface with economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.

    2001-01-01

    Geologic resource assessments describe the location, general characteristics, and estimated volumes of resources, whether in situ or technically recoverable. Such compilations are only an initial step in economic resource evaluation. This paper identifies, by examples from the Illinois and Appalachian basins, the salient features of a geologic assessment that assure its usefulness to downstream economic analysis. Assessments should be in sufficient detail to allocate resources to production units (mines or wells). Coal assessments should include the spatial distribution of coal bed characteristics and the ability to allocate parts of the resource to specific mining technologies. For coal bed gas assessment, the production well recoveries and well deliverability characteristics must be preserved and the risk structure should be specified so dryholes and noncommercial well costs are recovered by commercially successful wells. ?? 2001 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  4. An Attempt to Assess the Quantitative Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth and Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Próchniak Mariusz

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at assessing to what extent institutional environment is responsible for worldwide differences in economic growth and economic development. To answer this question, we use an innovative approach based on a new concept of the institutions-augmented Solow model which is then estimated empirically using regression equations. The analysis covers 180 countries during the 1993-2012 period. The empirical analysis confirms a large positive impact of the quality of institutional environment on the level of economic development. The positive link has been evidenced for all five institutional indicators: two indices of economic freedom (Heritage Foundation and Fraser Institute, the governance indicator (World Bank, the democracy index (Freedom House, and the EBRD transition indicator for post-socialist countries. Differences in physical capital, human capital, and institutional environment explain about 70-75% of the worldwide differences in economic development. The institutions-augmented Solow model, however, performs slightly poorer in explaining differences in the rates of economic growth: only one institutional variable (index of economic freedom has a statistically significant impact on economic growth. In terms of originality, this paper extends the theoretical analysis of the Solow model by including institutions, on the one hand, and shows a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of various institutional indicators on both the level of development and the pace of economic growth, on the other. The results bring important policy implications.

  5. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers......, including all relevant factors in specific analyses is impossible, and it is therefore important to be aware of the most essential ones. As demonstrated in the literature review of Paper 1, a large number of factors may significantly influence fishermen’s short run behaviour, i.e. choice of gear type...

  6. The DCFR and consumer protection: an economic assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luth, H.A.; Cseres, K.; Larouche, P.; Chirico, F.

    2010-01-01

    This paper will discuss consumer protection in the DCFR. It will screen the DCFR and its model of consumer protection through the lens of economic analysis. The assessment will examine the general role of mandatory rules, which justification grounds they are based on and how this general model is

  7. Concept of economic readiness levels assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuniaristanto, Sutopo, W.; Widiyanto, A.; Putri, A. S.

    2017-11-01

    This research aims to build a concept of Economic Readiness Level (ERL) assessment for incubation center. ERL concept is arranged by considering both market and business aspects. Every aspect is divided into four phases and each of them consists of some indicators. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to develop the ERL in calculating the weight of every single aspect and indicator. Interval scale between 0 and 4 is also applied in indicator assessment. In order to calculate ERL, score in every indicator and the weight of both the aspect and indicator are considered. ERL value is able to show in detail the innovative product readiness level from economic sight, market and business aspect. There are four levels in Economic Readiness Level scheme which are investigation, feasibility, planning and introduction.

  8. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  9. The Economics of Online Dating: A Course in Economic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaco, Andrew J.

    2018-01-01

    The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of "online dating," interpreted broadly, as a point of…

  10. Managing Air Quality - Human Health, Environmental and Economic Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human health and environmental assessments characterize health and environmental risks associated with exposure to pollution. Economic assessments evaluate the cost and economic impact of a policy or regulation & can estimate economic benefits.

  11. HOMER Economic Models - US Navy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Jason William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Myers, Kurt Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-02-01

    This LETTER REPORT has been prepared by Idaho National Laboratory for US Navy NAVFAC EXWC to support in testing pre-commercial SIREN (Simulated Integration of Renewable Energy Networks) computer software models. In the logistics mode SIREN software simulates the combination of renewable power sources (solar arrays, wind turbines, and energy storage systems) in supplying an electrical demand. NAVFAC EXWC will create SIREN software logistics models of existing or planned renewable energy projects at five Navy locations (San Nicolas Island, AUTEC, New London, & China Lake), and INL will deliver additional HOMER computer models for comparative analysis. In the transient mode SIREN simulates the short time-scale variation of electrical parameters when a power outage or other destabilizing event occurs. In the HOMER model, a variety of inputs are entered such as location coordinates, Generators, PV arrays, Wind Turbines, Batteries, Converters, Grid costs/usage, Solar resources, Wind resources, Temperatures, Fuels, and Electric Loads. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms then evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of these technology options and account for variations in technology costs, electric load, and energy resource availability. The Navy can then use HOMER’s optimization and sensitivity results to compare to those of the SIREN model. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Idaho National Laboratory (INL) possesses unique expertise and experience in the software, hardware, and systems design for the integration of renewable energy into the electrical grid. NAVFAC EXWC will draw upon this expertise to complete mission requirements.

  12. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso Russo

    Full Text Available Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries, a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1 spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2 an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3 a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in

  14. SMART: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for assessing and managing demersal fisheries, with an application to italian trawlers in the strait of sicily.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russo, Tommaso; Parisi, Antonio; Garofalo, Germana; Gristina, Michele; Cataudella, Stefano; Fiorentino, Fabio

    2014-01-01

    Management of catches, effort and exploitation pattern are considered the most effective measures to control fishing mortality and ultimately ensure productivity and sustainability of fisheries. Despite the growing concerns about the spatial dimension of fisheries, the distribution of resources and fishing effort in space is seldom considered in assessment and management processes. Here we propose SMART (Spatial MAnagement of demersal Resources for Trawl fisheries), a tool for assessing bio-economic feedback in different management scenarios. SMART combines information from different tasks gathered within the European Data Collection Framework on fisheries and is composed of: 1) spatial models of fishing effort, environmental characteristics and distribution of demersal resources; 2) an Artificial Neural Network which captures the relationships among these aspects in a spatially explicit way and uses them to predict resources abundances; 3) a deterministic module which analyzes the size structure of catches and the associated revenues, according to different spatially-based management scenarios. SMART is applied to demersal fishery in the Strait of Sicily, one of the most productive fisheries of the Mediterranean Sea. Three of the main target species are used as proxies for the whole range exploited by trawlers. After training, SMART is used to evaluate different management scenarios, including spatial closures, using a simulation approach that mimics the recent exploitation patterns. Results evidence good model performance, with a noteworthy coherence and reliability of outputs for the different components. Among others, the main finding is that a partial improvement in resource conditions can be achieved by means of nursery closures, even if the overall fishing effort in the area remains stable. Accordingly, a series of strategically designed areas of trawling closures could significantly improve the resource conditions of demersal fisheries in the Strait of

  15. Teaching Economics: A Cooperative Learning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caropreso, Edward J.; Haggerty, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Describes an alternative approach to introductory economics based on a cooperative learning model, "Learning Together." Discussion of issues in economics education and cooperative learning in higher education leads to explanation of how to adapt the Learning Together Model to lesson planning in economics. A flow chart illustrates the process for a…

  16. Economic Assessment and Business Models of Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems in Multiapartment Buildings: Case Studies for Austria and Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernadette Fina

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the profitability and business models of shared, nonsubsidized PV systems’ usage in multiapartment buildings in Austria in the context of legislative amendments which came into force in July 2017. In addition, it compares the Austrian results with those of Germany, where significantly higher retail electricity prices determine the profitability benchmark. To that end, a multiobjective optimization model is developed for the optimal dimensioning of PV systems and energy storage facilities in keeping with different end user objectives, ranging from minimizing annual electricity costs to maximizing self-consumption. The results show that the profitability of shared use of nonsubsidized PV systems is marginal in Austria. This means that, based on individual apartment load profiles, the profitability gap ranges between 0 and 40 euros per apartment, whereas the consideration of the building as total load leads to a small cost-saving potential of about 90 euros for the whole building in the best case and thus profitability. In contrast, significant profitability of shared PV systems in multiapartment buildings can be achieved in Germany, where the renewable energy surcharge results in high retail electricity prices. At present, different business models, accounting and billing concepts, are being tested in these countries to learn about the best-practice concepts.

  17. Economic assessment of the use value of geospatial information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, Richard L.; Shapiro, Carl D.

    2015-01-01

    Geospatial data inform decision makers. An economic model that involves application of spatial and temporal scientific, technical, and economic data in decision making is described. The value of information (VOI) contained in geospatial data is the difference between the net benefits (in present value terms) of a decision with and without the information. A range of technologies is used to collect and distribute geospatial data. These technical activities are linked to examples that show how the data can be applied in decision making, which is a cultural activity. The economic model for assessing the VOI in geospatial data for decision making is applied to three examples: (1) a retrospective model about environmental regulation of agrochemicals; (2) a prospective model about the impact and mitigation of earthquakes in urban areas; and (3) a prospective model about developing private–public geospatial information for an ecosystem services market. Each example demonstrates the potential value of geospatial information in a decision with uncertain information.

  18. Integrated Assessment Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J. A.; Weyant, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are widely used to provide insights into the dynamics of the coupled human and socio-economic system, including emission mitigation analysis and the generation of future emission scenarios. Similar to the climate modeling community, the integrated assessment community has a two decade history of model inter-comparison, which has served as one of the primary venues for model evaluation and confirmation. While analysis of historical trends in the socio-economic system has long played a key role in diagnostics of future scenarios from IAMs, formal hindcast experiments are just now being contemplated as evaluation exercises. Some initial thoughts on setting up such IAM evaluation experiments are discussed. Socio-economic systems do not follow strict physical laws, which means that evaluation needs to take place in a context, unlike that of physical system models, in which there are few fixed, unchanging relationships. Of course strict validation of even earth system models is not possible (Oreskes etal 2004), a fact borne out by the inability of models to constrain the climate sensitivity. Energy-system models have also been grappling with some of the same questions over the last quarter century. For example, one of "the many questions in the energy field that are waiting for answers in the next 20 years" identified by Hans Landsberg in 1985 was "Will the price of oil resume its upward movement?" Of course we are still asking this question today. While, arguably, even fewer constraints apply to socio-economic systems, numerous historical trends and patterns have been identified, although often only in broad terms, that are used to guide the development of model components, parameter ranges, and scenario assumptions. IAM evaluation exercises are expected to provide useful information for interpreting model results and improving model behavior. A key step is the recognition of model boundaries, that is, what is inside

  19. Assessment of mutual influence of economic and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Vasil’evich Druzhinin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article considers two issues: the assessment of the influence of economic development on the environment and the assessment of the impact of climate change on the development of certain economic sectors. The authors used methods of statistical analysis and economic-mathematical modeling. The article reveals differences in the dynamics and defines the nature of the relationship between GRP per capita and emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere (including greenhouse gases for Russia’s regions. It is shown that the dynamics in some regions in 2000–2011 corresponds to the environmental Kuznets curve. The factors that affect the reduction of anthropogenic impact were determined. Several models for estimating the impact of changes in climatic conditions on the productivity of various crops were designed and tested

  20. The Need of a New Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Cătălin POPA

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The current global economic crisis has proven to be unpredictable for most decision-makers worldwide. Moreover, beliefs deeply embedded in the minds of economists about economics, about the virtues of capitalism and free market began to falter. Sooner or later the current crisis will end. The problem that arises and to which the economic science must answer is whether anything should be changed in the current world economic order and especially what exactly. It is quite vital to ask ourselves today in what kind of society we want to live and whether the current economic model, a model mainly based on monetarist ideas, is helping us to achieve those wishes. In addition to analyzing the root causes that led to the current economic crisis, this article aims to analyze whether the current economic model must change and to outline the features of a possible new model.

  1. An Economic and Environmental Assessment Model for Selecting the Optimal Implementation Strategy of Fuel Cell Systems—A Focus on Building Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daeho Kim

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Considerable effort is being made to reduce the primary energy consumption in buildings. As part of this effort, fuel cell systems are attracting attention as a new/renewable energy systems for several reasons: (i distributed generation system; (ii combined heat and power system; and (iii availability of various sources of hydrogen in the future. Therefore, this study aimed to develop an economic and environmental assessment model for selecting the optimal implementation strategy of the fuel cell system, focusing on building energy policy. This study selected two types of buildings (i.e., residential buildings and non-residential buildings as the target buildings and considered two types of building energy policies (i.e., the standard of energy cost calculation and the standard of a government subsidy. This study established the optimal implementation strategy of the fuel cell system in terms of the life cycle cost and life cycle CO2 emissions. For the residential building, it is recommended that the subsidy level and the system marginal price level be increased. For the non-residential building, it is recommended that gas energy cost be decreased and the system marginal price level be increased. The developed model could be applied to any other country or any other type of building according to building energy policy.

  2. Combining emperical and theory-based land use modelling approaches to assess future availability of land and economic potential for sustainable biofuel production: Argentina as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

  3. Combining empirical and theory-based land-use modelling approaches to assess economic potential of biofuel production avoiding iLUC: Argentina as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, F.; van Eijck, J.; Verstegen, J.A.; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.; Faaij, A.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

  4. Integrated environmental and economic assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Sanchez, Veronica

    in the “Optimization approach” the scenarios are the results of an optimization process. • The cost approach describes cost principles and level of LCA integration. Conventional and Environmental LCCs are financial assessments, i.e. include marketed goods/services, but while Environmental LCCs include environmental...... assessment of SWM systems alongside environmental impacts assessment to take budget constrains into account. In light of the need for combined environmental and economic assessment of SWM, this PhD thesis developed a consistent and comprehensive method for integrated environmental and economic assessment...... of SWM technologies and systems. The method resulted from developing further the generic Life Cycle Costing (LCC) framework suggested by Hunkeler et al. (2008) and Swarr et al. (2011) to apply it on the field of SWM. The method developed includes: two modelling approaches (Accounting and Optimization...

  5. The potentials and challenges of algae based biofuels: a review of the techno-economic, life cycle, and resource assessment modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Jason C; Davis, Ryan

    2015-05-01

    Microalgae biofuel production has been extensively evaluated through resource, economic and life cycle assessments. Resource assessments consistently identify land as non-limiting and highlight the need to consider siting based on combined geographical constraints of land and other critical resources such as water and carbon dioxide. Economic assessments report a selling cost of fuel that ranges between $1.64 and over $30 gal(-1) consistent with large variability reported in the life cycle literature, -75 to 534 gCO2-eq MJ(-1). Large drivers behind such variability stem from differences in productivity assumptions, pathway technologies, and system boundaries. Productivity represents foundational units in these assessments with current assumed yields in various assessments varying by a factor of 60. A review of the literature in these areas highlights the need for harmonized assessments such that direct comparisons of alternative processing technologies can be made on the metrics of resource requirements, economic feasibility, and environmental impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Economic assessment of mushroom project commercialisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mat Rasol Awang; Rosnani Abdul Rashid; Hassan Hamdani Hassan Mutaat; Meswan Maskom

    2010-01-01

    The market value of mushroom is worth US $45 billion comprising: US $28-30 billion from food, US $9-10 billion from medicinal products and US $3.5-4 billion from wild mushroom. Malaysian import deficit of mushroom over the year 2001-2007 was 40,933 metric ton that worth of RM 187.7 million. The existing local market is lucrative and the potential world market is very large. Having cultivation technology in placed, understanding key value chains of cultivation technology processes, this paper assesses the case study of project economic of mushroom commercialization. (author)

  7. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

  8. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2010 - part 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - integrated assessment modeling and valuation.

  9. Economic models for battery energy storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reckrodt, R.C.; Anderson, M.D.; Kluczny, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    While the technology required to produce viable Battery Energy Storage System exists, the economic feasibility (cost vs. benefits) of building these systems requires justification. First, a generalized decision diagram was developed to ensure that all of the economic factors were considered and properly related for the customer-side-of-the meter. Next, two economic models that had consistently given differing results were compared. One was the McKinney model developed at UM-Rolla in 1987; the second was the SYSPLAN model developed by Battelle. Differences were resolved on a point by point basis with reference to the current economic environment. The economic model was upgraded to include the best of both models based on the resolution of these differences. The upgrades were implemented as modifications to the original SYSPLAN (1986 version) to preserve user friendliness. In this paper four specific cases are evaluated and compared. The results are as predicted, since comparison was made with two known models

  10. Economic Journal in Russia: Quality Assessment Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ol’ga Valentinovna Tret’yakova

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper attempts to assess economic journals included in the List of peer-reviewed scientific journals and editions that are authorized to publish the principal research findings of doctoral (candidate’s dissertations (the VAK List, it was established by the Decision of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation and entered into force on December 01, 2016. The general assessment of the journals that include more than 380 titles is carried out by analyzing their bibliometric indicators in the system of the Russian Science Citation Index, in particular, by examining the values of their impact factors. The analysis conducted at the Institute of Socio-economic Development of Territories of RAS shows that a relatively small number of economic journals publish a significant proportion of articles that obtain a large share of citations. The author reveals that the new VAK List includes over 50% of journals specializing in economic sciences, which have a lower level of citation or which are virtually not cited at all. This indirectly indicates that such journals are “left behind” the “main stream of science”, that their significance is local, availability low, attractiveness for the audience and scientific authority insufficient. The analysis proves that when forming the list of peer-reviewed scientific publications recommended for publication of dissertation research findings, along with other criteria, it is advisable to use tools that help assess the level of the journal. It is very important that the evaluation had quantitative expression and served as a specific measure for ranking the journals. One of these tools may be a criterion value for the two-year impact factor, which helps identify journals with a sufficient citation level. The paper presents the results of analysis of the RSCI list, which was proposed by the Council for Science under the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation as an

  11. Modelling management process of key drivers for economic sustainability in the modern conditions of economic development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pishchulina E.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The text is about issues concerning the management of driver for manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability and manufacturing enterprise sustainability assessment as the key aspect of the management of enterprise economic sustainability. The given issues become topical as new requirements for the methods of manufacturing enterprise management in the modern conditions of market economy occur. An economic sustainability model that is considered in the article is an integration of enterprise economic growth, economic balance of external and internal environment and economic sustainability. The method of assessment of economic sustainability of a manufacturing enterprise proposed in the study allows to reveal some weaknesses in the enterprise performance, and untapped reserves, which can be further used to improve the economic sustainability and efficiency of the enterprise. The management of manufacturing enterprise economic sustainability is one of the most important factors of business functioning and development in modern market economy. The relevance of this trend is increasing in accordance with the objective requirements of the growing volumes of production and sale, the increasing complexity of economic relations, changing external environment of an enterprise.

  12. Network models in economics and finance

    CERN Document Server

    Pardalos, Panos; Rassias, Themistocles

    2014-01-01

    Using network models to investigate the interconnectivity in modern economic systems allows researchers to better understand and explain some economic phenomena. This volume presents contributions by known experts and active researchers in economic and financial network modeling. Readers are provided with an understanding of the latest advances in network analysis as applied to economics, finance, corporate governance, and investments. Moreover, recent advances in market network analysis  that focus on influential techniques for market graph analysis are also examined. Young researchers will find this volume particularly useful in facilitating their introduction to this new and fascinating field. Professionals in economics, financial management, various technologies, and network analysis, will find the network models presented in this book beneficial in analyzing the interconnectivity in modern economic systems.

  13. The BCRA’s Small Economic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Pedro Elosegui; Guillermo Escudé; Lorena Garegnani; Juan Martín Sotes Paladino

    2007-01-01

    The use of macroeconomic forecasting models is a common practice in central banks for monetary policy design, for the analysis of the current economic developments and for medium and long term forecasts. Among those models, the small-scale macroeconomic models stand out. Though relatively simple, they are structured and take into account the transmission mechanisms that relate the main variables of interest: the interest rate, the exchange rate, GDP and inflation. The Small Economic Model (ME...

  14. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  15. Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

    2017-07-01

    In this paper we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system.

  16. Presenting of a material exposure health risk assessment model in Oil and Gas Industries (case study: Pars Economic and Energy Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Heydari

    2014-02-01

    Result and Conclusion: The results revealed that the quantitative amount of consequence, probability and exposure was 83.2, 8.45, and 2.2, respectively. Generally, the chemical exposure risk number was 1546 which shows that reforming plans are in highly priorities from an economical point of view. William-fine method has the benefit of an accurate chemical exposure by combination of effect severity, exposure probability and detriment rate, and also minimization of personal judgments during the assessment.

  17. Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Tawil, J.

    1982-08-01

    The overall purpose of this research was to assist the US Department of Energy (DOE) in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO/sub 2/ on agricultural production. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. Specific attention was focused upon models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes on crop yields; national and multi-regional agricultural sector models; and macroeconomic models of the US economy. The second task involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ buildup. The third and final task involved synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the US economy. It is concluded that the direct economic impacts of CO/sub 2/ on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.

  18. Economic Modeling Considerations for Rare Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Isobel; Rothwell, Ben; Olaye, Andrew; Knight, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    To identify challenges that affect the feasibility and rigor of economic models in rare diseases and strategies that manufacturers have employed in health technology assessment submissions to demonstrate the value of new orphan products that have limited study data. Targeted reviews of PubMed, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's (NICE's) Highly Specialised Technologies (HST), and the Scottish Medicines Consortium's (SMC's) ultra-orphan submissions were performed. A total of 19 PubMed studies, 3 published NICE HSTs, and 11 ultra-orphan SMC submissions were eligible for inclusion. In rare diseases, a number of different factors may affect the model's ability to comply with good practice recommendations. Many products for the treatment of rare diseases have an incomplete efficacy and safety profile at product launch. In addition, there is often limited available natural history and epidemiology data. Information on the direct and indirect cost burden of an orphan disease also may be limited, making it difficult to estimate the potential economic benefit of treatment. These challenges can prevent accurate estimation of a new product's benefits in relation to costs. Approaches that can address such challenges include using patient and/or clinician feedback to inform model assumptions; data from disease analogues; epidemiological techniques, such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison; and long-term data collection. Modeling in rare diseases is often challenging; however, a number of approaches are available to support the development of model structures and the collation of input parameters and to manage uncertainty. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandrik, A.M.

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  20. Assessing the influence of land use land cover pattern, socio economic factors and air quality status to predict morbidity on the basis of logistic based regression model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, A.; Singh, V. K.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies conducted by World Health Organisation (WHO) estimated that 92 % of the total world population are living in places where the air quality level has exceeded the WHO standard limit for air quality. This is due to the change in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) pattern, socio economic drivers and anthropogenic heat emission caused by manmade activity. Thereby, many prevalent human respiratory diseases such as lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and emphysema have increased in recent times. In this study, a quantitative relationship is developed between land use (built-up land, water bodies, and vegetation), socio economic drivers and air quality parameters using logistic based regression model over 7 different cities of India for the winter season of 2012 to 2016. Different LULC, socio economic, industrial emission sources, meteorological condition and air quality level from the monitoring stations are taken to estimate the influence on morbidity of each city. Results of correlation are analyzed between land use variables and monthly concentration of pollutants. These values range from 0.63 to 0.76. Similarly, the correlation value between land use variable with socio economic and morbidity ranges from 0.57 to 0.73. The performance of model is improved from 67 % to 79 % in estimating morbidity for the year 2015 and 2016 due to the better availability of observed data.The study highlights the growing importance of incorporating socio-economic drivers with air quality data for evaluating morbidity rate for each city in comparison to just change in quantitative analysis of air quality.

  1. (Non-) behavioral economics: a programmatic assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Güth, Werner

    2007-01-01

    Economic theory has evolved without paying proper attention to behavioral approaches, especially to social, economic, and cognitive psychology. This has recently changed by including behavioral economics courses in many doctoral study programs. Although this new development is most welcome, the typical topics of the behavioral economics courses are not truly behavioral. More specifically, we question whether neoclassical repairs or game fitting exercises as well as more or less mechanic adapt...

  2. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  3. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  4. A multi-objective assessment of an air quality monitoring network using environmental, economic, and social indicators and GIS-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Ronald; Wu, Jianguo

    2014-06-01

    In the United States, air pollution is primarily measured by Air Quality Monitoring Networks (AQMN). These AQMNs have multiple objectives, including characterizing pollution patterns, protecting the public health, and determining compliance with air quality standards. In 2006, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a directive that air pollution agencies assess the performance of their AQMNs. Although various methods to design and assess AQMNs exist, here we demonstrate a geographic information system (GIS)-based approach that combines environmental, economic, and social indicators through the assessment of the ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) networks in Maricopa County, Arizona. The assessment was conducted in three phases: (1) to evaluate the performance of the existing networks, (2) to identify areas that would benefit from the addition of new monitoring stations, and (3) to recommend changes to the AQMN. A comprehensive set of indicators was created for evaluating differing aspects of the AQMNs' objectives, and weights were applied to emphasize important indicators. Indicators were also classified according to their sustainable development goal. Our results showed that O3 was well represented in the county with some redundancy in terms of the urban monitors. The addition of weights to the indicators only had a minimal effect on the results. For O3, urban monitors had greater social scores, while rural monitors had greater environmental scores. The results did not suggest a need for adding more O3 monitoring sites. For PM10, clustered urban monitors were redundant, and weights also had a minimal effect on the results. The clustered urban monitors had overall low scores; sites near point sources had high environmental scores. Several areas were identified as needing additional PM10 monitors. This study demonstrates the usefulness of a multi-indicator approach to assess AQMNs. Network managers and planners may use this method to assess the

  5. Large scale hydro-economic modelling for policy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Roo, Ad; Burek, Peter; Bouraoui, Faycal; Reynaud, Arnaud; Udias, Angel; Pistocchi, Alberto; Lanzanova, Denis; Trichakis, Ioannis; Beck, Hylke; Bernhard, Jeroen

    2014-05-01

    To support European Union water policy making and policy monitoring, a hydro-economic modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. With this modelling environment, river basin scale simulations are carried out to assess the effects of water-retention measures, water-saving measures, and nutrient-reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index (WEI), Nitrate and Phosphate concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector, as well as the economic loss due to flood damage. Recently, this model environment is being extended with a groundwater model to evaluate the effects of measures on the average groundwater table and available resources. Also, water allocation rules are addressed, while having environmental flow included as a minimum requirement for the environment. Economic functions are currently being updated as well. Recent development and examples will be shown and discussed, as well as open challenges.

  6. JEDI: Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-06-13

    The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models are user-friendly tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation and biofuel plants at the local (usually state) level. First developed by NREL's researchers to model wind energy jobs and impacts, JEDI has been expanded to also estimate the economic impacts of biofuels, coal, conventional hydro, concentrating solar power, geothermal, marine and hydrokinetic power, natural gas, photovoltaics, and transmission lines. This fact sheet focuses on JEDI for wind energy projects and is revised with 2017 figures.

  7. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-09-01

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Short-run Economic Assessment of the Transportation Recovery Policy After an Earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koike Atsushi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a short-run economic damage assessment model. The model contains two sub models. One is the conventional traffic assignment model, which calculates traveling time under the damaged transportation infrastructure. The other is the economic damage assessment model, which determines the decrease in production level in the short run. This method facilitates the identification of critical infrastructure that could reduce the economic damage when the disaster occurs. As a case study, we applied this model to several recovery plans for transport facilities. The results suggest that the proposed comprehensive model should be considered as a prevention plan.

  9. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Walle, B. van de; Hardeman, F.; Sohier, A.; Soudan, K.

    1996-01-01

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  10. Economic Assessment of the Use Value of Geospatial Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Bernknopf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Geospatial data inform decision makers. An economic model that involves application of spatial and temporal scientific, technical, and economic data in decision making is described. The value of information (VOI contained in geospatial data is the difference between the net benefits (in present value terms of a decision with and without the information. A range of technologies is used to collect and distribute geospatial data. These technical activities are linked to examples that show how the data can be applied in decision making, which is a cultural activity. The economic model for assessing the VOI in geospatial data for decision making is applied to three examples: (1 a retrospective model about environmental regulation of agrochemicals; (2 a prospective model about the impact and mitigation of earthquakes in urban areas; and (3 a prospective model about developing private–public geospatial information for an ecosystem services market. Each example demonstrates the potential value of geospatial information in a decision with uncertain information.

  11. Economic aspects and models for building codes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonke, Jens; Pedersen, Dan Ove; Johnsen, Kjeld

    It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study.......It is the purpose of this bulletin to present an economic model for estimating the consequence of new or changed building codes. The object is to allow comparative analysis in order to improve the basis for decisions in this field. The model is applied in a case study....

  12. Economic Models as Devices of Policy Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lasse Folke

    2013-01-01

    Can the emergence of a new policy model be a catalyst for a paradigm shift in the overall interpretative framework of how economic policy is conducted within a society? This paper claims that models are understudied as devices used by actors to induce policy change. This paper explores the role...... of models in Danish economic policy, where, from the 1970s onwards, executive public servants in this area have exclusively been specialists in model design. To understand changes in economic policy, this paper starts with a discussion of whether the notion of paradigm shift is adequate. It then examines...... the extent to which the performativity approach can help identify macroscopic changes in policy from seemingly microscopic changes in policy models. The concept of performativity is explored as a means of thinking about the constitution of agency directed at policy change. The paper brings this concept...

  13. Economic assessment of the construction industry: A construction-economics nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Herbert Marion, Jr.

    The purpose of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the construction industry. More specifically, this study addresses ambiguities within the literature that are associated with the construction-economics nexus. The researcher 1) investigated the relationships between economic indicators and stock prices of U.S. construction equipment manufacturers, 2) investigated the relationships between energy production, consumption, and corruption, and 3) determined the economic effect electricity generation and electricity consumption has on economies of scale. The researcher used descriptive and inferential statistics in this study and determined that economists, researchers, policy-makers, and others should have predicted the 2007-08 world economic collapse 5-6 years prior to realization of the event given that construction indices and GDP grossly regressed from statistically acceptable trends as early as 2002 and perhaps 2000. Substantiating this claim, the effect of the cost of construction materials and labor, i.e. construction index, on GDP was significant for years leading up to the collapse (1970-2007). Additionally, it was determined that energy production and consumption are predictors of governmental corruption in some countries. In the Republic of Botswana, for example, the researcher determined that energy production and consumption statistically jointly effected governmental corruption. In addition to determining statistical effect, a model for predicting governmental corruption was developed based on energy production and consumption volumes. Also, the researcher found that electricity generation in the 25 largest world economies had a statistically significant effect on GDP. Electricity consumption also had an effect on GDP, as well, but not on other economic indicators. More importantly than the quantitative findings, the researcher concluded that the construction-economics nexus is far more complex than most policy-makers realize. As such

  14. Economic impacts assessment of pleuropneumonia burden and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a trans-boundary infectious and contagious respiratory disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides. It is a disease of high economic importance because of its ability to compromise food security. Information on its economic burden in pastoral cattle ...

  15. Socio-economic status of Ghanians of Subsaharan Africa assessed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Socio-economic status of Ghanians of Subsaharan Africa assessed by subjective perception as against objective criteria: methodological considerations. The Mamprobi (Ghana) Cardiovascular Helath Programme 1975-1980.

  16. Revised assessments of the economics of fusion power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, W.E.; Ward, D.J.

    2009-01-01

    Although fusion power is being developed because of its large resource base, low environmental impact and high levels of intrinsic safety, it is also important to investigate the economics of a future fusion power plant in order to assess the potential market for the electricity produced. As part of the PPCS (Power Plant Conceptual Study) in Europe, published in 2005, an assessment was made of the likely economic performance of the range of fusion power plant concepts studied. Since that time, new work has been carried out, within the fusion programme, and particularly in the EU DEMO study, that changes a number of the important assumptions made in the PPCS. These changes allow either reduced cost versions of the PPCS plant models or, alternatively, plants with less ambitious technical assumptions at constant cost. The impact of the new results, emerging from the EU DEMO studies, on the role of fusion in the future energy market is described. A new energy economics model is employed to analyse the potential market performance of fusion power in a range of future energy scenarios and this shows that there can be a significant role for fusion in a future energy market.

  17. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  18. Introduction to economic assessment - part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Ann; Sin, Chih Hoong

    2014-07-01

    This is the second in a series of four continuing professional development articles that explain some of the principles of economic assessment (EA) and describe how they may be applied in practice by front line practitioners leading service innovations. It introduces a methodology, with associated tools and templates, that has been used by practising nurses to conduct EAs. Our purpose is to equip readers with the knowledge to develop a technically competent, pragmatic EA that will contribute towards evidence-informed decision making and assure the best use of limited resources. If you have not already read the first article in this series ( McMahon and Sin 2013), we strongly advise you to do so as each article purposefully draws and builds on those that have gone before. The time out exercises in the first article required you to access source material located on the RCN website and identify a service innovation in your workplace. The time out exercises in this article draw in these same sources. We begin this article by recapping on the points covered in the first article before exploring the implications of the principles of EA and how to apply them in practice. In this article, we refer to and draw on a companion article published in this edition of Nursing Management ( pages 38-41) that sets out the most commonly cited approaches to EA in health and social care. We aim to enable readers, along with those they seek to influence, to make an informed decision as to what may be an appropriate EA approach in any specific context.

  19. Economic modelling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives. An analysis of the role of life extension for Virginia Power's generating system was performed using the MIDAS model, developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. MIDAS is particularly well suited to this type of study because of its decision analysis framework. The model incorporates modules for load analysis, capacity expansion, production costing, financial analysis, and rates. The decision tree structure facilitates the multiple-scenario analysis of uncertainty. The model's output includes many economic and financial measures, including capital expenditures, fuel and purchases power costs, revenue requirements, average rates, external financing requirements, and coverage ratio. Based on findings for Virginia Power's Surry 1 plant, nuclear plant life extension has economic benefits for a utility's customers and financial benefits for the utility's investors. These benefits depend on a number of economic, technical and regulatory factors. The economic analysis presented in this paper identifies many of the key factors and issues relevant to life extension planning

  20. Advanced Small Modular Reactor Economics Model Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, Thomas J [ORNL

    2014-10-01

    The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) research and development activities focus on four key areas: Developing assessment methods for evaluating advanced SMR technologies and characteristics; and Developing and testing of materials, fuels and fabrication techniques; and Resolving key regulatory issues identified by US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and industry; and Developing advanced instrumentation and controls and human-machine interfaces. This report focuses on development of assessment methods to evaluate advanced SMR technologies and characteristics. Specifically, this report describes the expansion and application of the economic modeling effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Analysis of the current modeling methods shows that one of the primary concerns for the modeling effort is the handling of uncertainty in cost estimates. Monte Carlo–based methods are commonly used to handle uncertainty, especially when implemented by a stand-alone script within a program such as Python or MATLAB. However, a script-based model requires each potential user to have access to a compiler and an executable capable of handling the script. Making the model accessible to multiple independent analysts is best accomplished by implementing the model in a common computing tool such as Microsoft Excel. Excel is readily available and accessible to most system analysts, but it is not designed for straightforward implementation of a Monte Carlo–based method. Using a Monte Carlo algorithm requires in-spreadsheet scripting and statistical analyses or the use of add-ons such as Crystal Ball. An alternative method uses propagation of error calculations in the existing Excel-based system to estimate system cost uncertainty. This method has the advantage of using Microsoft Excel as is, but it requires the use of simplifying assumptions. These assumptions do not necessarily bring into question the analytical results. In fact, the

  1. RATIONAL AGGREGATION OF THE PRODUCTION LIST OF THE ECONOMIC MODEL WITH THE DETAILED TIMBER COMPLEX (ASSESSMENT ON THE BASE OF THE EXPERIMENTAL CALCULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkrtchyan G. M.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main principle of developing specialized model complexes is based on the approach when the detailed description of the object (the core, the main body is added by the description of the context. In addition to the above, the core of the system can be made up in turns by objects picked up from the context. Developing the models on separate subsystems of the economy, presented in details in the basic model, leads to creation of problems (equations with many variables and parameters where for the specific goals of analysis (and forecasting it is not at all obligatory to use the full-scale model. Such redundancy is unnecessary while using this model for scenario calculations in the context of “branch ” problems. The authors provide experimental calculations which allow evaluating the influence of aggregation on resulting information. Average year growth rates of production by branches of timber complex are considered as resulting information. Closeness of decisions on these indicators proves the hypothesis about possibility and rationality of such aggregation of the economic context for the timber complex.

  2. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  3. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  4. Logistic map with memory from economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

    2017-01-01

    A generalization of the economic model of logistic growth, which takes into account the effects of memory and crises, is suggested. Memory effect means that the economic factors and parameters at any given time depend not only on their values at that time, but also on their values at previous times. For the mathematical description of the memory effects, we use the theory of derivatives of non-integer order. Crises are considered as sharp splashes (bursts) of the price, which are mathematically described by the delta-functions. Using the equivalence of fractional differential equations and the Volterra integral equations, we obtain discrete maps with memory that are exact discrete analogs of fractional differential equations of economic processes. We derive logistic map with memory, its generalizations, and “economic” discrete maps with memory from the fractional differential equations, which describe the economic natural growth with competition, power-law memory and crises.

  5. Low carbon national strategy. A macro-economical assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baiz, Adam; Monnoyer-Smith, Laurence; Callonnec, Gael

    2016-11-01

    This publication briefly reports the use of the Three-ME model (Multi-sector Macroeconomic Model for the Evaluation of Environmental and Energy) to assess the combined effect of the several instruments mobilised for the transition towards a low carbon economy within the French National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC). It first presents the Three-ME model which has been developed since 2008 by the OFCE and the Ademe, is a neo-Keynesian and hybrid model, and which comprises 14.000 equations and 70.000 parameters dealing with prices, interest rates, investments, salaries, foreign trade, State policy, a production function, and a consumption function. Some characteristics of the SNBC scenario are indicated, as well as those of a reference trend-based scenario. Obtained results are then briefly commented in terms of positive ecological and economic impacts of a carbon tax and of sector-based measures defined within the SNBC

  6. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

  7. Value function in economic growth model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagno, Alexander; Tarasyev, Alexandr A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M.

    2017-11-01

    Properties of the value function are examined in an infinite horizon optimal control problem with an unlimited integrand index appearing in the quality functional with a discount factor. Optimal control problems of such type describe solutions in models of economic growth. Necessary and sufficient conditions are derived to ensure that the value function satisfies the infinitesimal stability properties. It is proved that value function coincides with the minimax solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Description of the growth asymptotic behavior for the value function is provided for the logarithmic, power and exponential quality functionals and an example is given to illustrate construction of the value function in economic growth models.

  8. An economic model for seaborne oil trade

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kian-Wah

    1996-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

  9. Ex post socio-economic assessment of the Oresund Bridge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, M.Aa.; Rich, Jeppe

    2013-01-01

    -economic assessment, the consumer benefits including all freight and passenger modes, are compared with the cost profile of the bridge. The monetary contributions are extrapolated to a complete 50 year period. It is revealed that the bridge from 2000–2010 generated a consumer surplus of €2 billion in 2000 prices...... to the current transport flows. The importance of having the right assumptions and the ability to model the phasing-in process are underlined. Secondly, we offer a wider discussion on why some projects are more beneficial than others. This is done by comparing the Oresund Bridge, the Channel Tunnel...

  10. Methodology of Economic Assessment of Corporate Finance Management Effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Juscu Nicolae Cristian

    2011-01-01

    “The methodology of economic assessment of corporate finance management effectiveness” deals with the analysis of the basic issues of economic aspects of corporate finance management effectiveness; the paper presents the essential issues of the existing methods for establishing the economic effectiveness of corporate finance management and control; it also proposes the improvement of the approach regarding the assessment of finance management effectiveness of a company.

  11. The use of modeling in the economic evaluation of vaccines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bos, Jasper M; Alphen, Loek van; Postma, Maarten J

    2002-01-01

    As a consequence of the increased role of pharmacoeconomics in policy-making, economic evaluations are performed at more and more early stages in the development of a therapeutic. This implies the development of models to assess the future impact of an intervention and to account for the level of

  12. Bio-economic household modelling for agricultural intensification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kruseman, G.

    2000-01-01

    This study contributes to the quest for sustainable agricultural intensification through the development of a quantitative bio-economic modelling framework that allows assessment of new technology and policy measures in terms of household welfare and sustainability indicators. The main aim

  13. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  14. Economic assessment of plutonium recycle to LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-02-01

    This paper presents an economic evaluation of plutonium recycle in LWR's using published estimates of the cost of the various fuel cycle operations. Total, discounted and levelized fuel cycle costs are computed for four national nuclear power growth pattern scenarios; ''super large'' (>100GW(e) by 2000), ''large'' (60-70GW(e) by 2000) ''medium'' (20-25 GW(e) by 2000) and ''small'' (5-10GW(e) by 2000). It is concluded that in the ''super-large'' and ''large'' cases recycle of uranium and plutonium would have a slight economic advantage over the once-through cycle. In the ''medium'' and ''small'' cases there would be no economic advantage up to the year 2000. The uncertainty in unit fuel cycle costs is large compared with the differences between the two fuel cycles and different conclusions can easily be drawn based on different unit cost assumptions

  15. Economical modelling of social and moral norms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyborg, Karine

    2001-01-01

    Social norms and moral motivations are often ignored in economic models. It is possible, however, to model social and moral norms within the framework of economical theory. This may be useful even if the exposition is necessarily simplified. The article gives some examples. An analysis shows how the ''No Smoking Act'' may have led to a change in social norms in Norway and indirectly changed the behaviour of smokers in places where this act does not apply. Behaviour with moral motivation may also be affected by changes in regulations, economic incentives or other external conditions. For example, a more efficient collection system for source-separated waste may induce people to sharpen the moral claim on their own efforts. Indeed, interviews show that imposing a fee upon people not volunteering in communal work may cause the attendance to drop further

  16. Assessment of Public Health and Economic Impact of Intranasal Live-Attenuated Influenza Vaccination of Children in France Using a Dynamic Transmission Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerlier, L; Lamotte, M; Grenèche, S; Lenne, X; Carrat, F; Weil-Olivier, C; Damm, O; Schwehm, M; Eichner, M

    2017-04-01

    We estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of extending the French influenza vaccination programme from at-risk/elderly (≥65 years) only to healthy children (2-17 years). A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic transmission model was used to simulate the transmission of influenza in the French population, using the current vaccination coverage with trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) in at-risk/elderly individuals (current strategy) or gradually extending the vaccination to healthy children (aged 2-17 years) with intranasal, quadrivalent live-attenuated influenza vaccine (QLAIV) from current uptake up to 50% (evaluated strategy). Epidemiological, medical resource use and cost data were taken from international literature and country-specific information. The model was calibrated to the observed numbers of influenza-like illness visits/year. The 10-year number of symptomatic cases of confirmed influenza and direct medical costs ('all-payer') were calculated for the 0-17- (direct and indirect effects) and ≥18-year-old (indirect effect). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for the total population, using a 4% discount rate/year. Assuming 2.3 million visits/year and 1960 deaths/year, the model calibration yielded an all-year average basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of 1.27. In the population aged 0-17 years, QLAIV prevented 865,000 influenza cases/year (58.4%), preventing 10-year direct medical expenses of €374 million. In those aged ≥18 years with unchanged TIV coverage, 1.2 million cases/year were averted (27.6%) via indirect effects (additionally prevented expenses, €457 million). On average, 613 influenza-related deaths were averted annually overall. The ICER was €18,001/life-year gained. The evaluated strategy had a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a €31,000/life-year gained threshold. The model demonstrated strong direct and indirect benefits of protecting healthy children against influenza with

  17. Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

    1984-01-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

  18. Methodologies for assessing socio-economic impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.

    1993-01-01

    Much of the studies on climate change impacts have focused on physical and biological impacts, yet a knowledge of the social and economic impacts of climate change is likely to have a greater impact on the public and on policymakers. A conventional assessment of the impacts of climate change begins with scenarios of future climate, commonly derived from global climate models translated to a regional scale. Estimates of biophysical conditions provided by such scenarios provide a basis for analyses of human impacts, usually considered sector by sector. The scenario approach, although having considerable merit and appeal, has some noteworthy limitations. It encourages consideration of only a small set of scenarios, requires bold assumptions to be made about adjustments in human systems, provides little direct analysis of sensitivities of human social and economic systems to climate perturbations, and usually invokes the assumption that all factors other than climate are stable and have no synergistic effects on human systems. Conventional studies concentrate on average climate, yet climate is inherently variable. A common response to this situation is to propose further development of climate models, but this is not a sufficient or necessary condition for good and useful assessments of impacts on human activities. Different approaches to socioeconomic impact analysis are needed, and approaches should be considered that include identification of sensitivities in a social or ecological system, identification of critical threshold levels or critical speeds of change in variables, and exploration of alternative methodologies such as process studies, spatial and temporal analogues, and socio-economic systems modelling. 5 refs., 3 figs

  19. Arational heuristic model of economic decision making

    OpenAIRE

    Grandori, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The article discuss the limits of both the rational actor and the behavioral paradigms in explaining and guiding innovative decision making and outlines a model of economic decision making that in the course of being 'heuristic' (research and discovery oriented) is also 'rational' (in the broad sense of following correct reasoning and scientific methods, non 'biasing'). The model specifies a set of 'rational heuristics' for innovative decision making, for the various sub-processes of problem ...

  20. A spatial-dynamic value transfer model of economic losses from a biological invasion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; Andrew M. Liebhold; Kent F. Kovacs; Betsy. Von Holle

    2010-01-01

    Rigorous assessments of the economic impacts of introduced species at broad spatial scales are required to provide credible information to policy makers. We propose that economic models of aggregate damages induced by biological invasions need to link microeconomic analyses of site-specific economic damages with spatial-dynamic models of value change associated with...

  1. Bio-economic modeling of water quality improvements using a dynamic applied general equilibrium approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellink, R.; Brouwer, R.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Stone, K.

    2011-01-01

    An integrated bio-economic model is developed to assess the impacts of pollution reduction policies on water quality and the economy. Emission levels of economic activities to water are determined based on existing environmental accounts. These emission levels are built into a dynamic economic model

  2. Economic and Technical Assessment of Wood Biomass Fuel Gasification for Industrial Gas Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anastasia M. Gribik; Ronald E. Mizia; Harry Gatley; Benjamin Phillips

    2007-09-01

    This project addresses both the technical and economic feasibility of replacing industrial gas in lime kilns with synthesis gas from the gasification of hog fuel. The technical assessment includes a materials evaluation, processing equipment needs, and suitability of the heat content of the synthesis gas as a replacement for industrial gas. The economic assessment includes estimations for capital, construction, operating, maintenance, and management costs for the reference plant. To perform these assessments, detailed models of the gasification and lime kiln processes were developed using Aspen Plus. The material and energy balance outputs from the Aspen Plus model were used as inputs to both the material and economic evaluations.

  3. Economic Impact Assessment of Alternative Climate Policy Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemfert, C.

    2001-10-01

    This paper investigates the world economic implications of climate change policy strategies, especially the evaluation of impacts by an implementation of Clean Development Mechanisms, Joint Implementation and Emissions trading with a world integrated assessment model. Of special interest in this context are the welfare spill over and competitiveness effects that result from diverse climate policy strategies. In particular, this study elaborates and compares multi gas policy strategies and explores the impacts of the inclusion of sinks. Because of the recent decision of an isolated climate policy strategy by the United States of America, we examine the economic impacts of all world regions by a non cooperative and free rider position of the USA. It turns out that Clean Development Mechanisms and Joint Implementation show evidence of improvement in the economic development in the host countries and increase the share of new applied technologies. The decomposition of welfare effects demonstrates that the competitiveness effect including the spill over effects from trade have the strongest importance because of the intense trade relations between countries. Climatic effects have a significant impact within the next 50 years, cause considerable welfare losses to world regions and will intensify if some highly responsible nations like the USA do not reduce their emissions

  4. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  5. Assessing sufficient capability: A new approach to economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Paul Mark; Roberts, Tracy E; Barton, Pelham M; Coast, Joanna

    2015-08-01

    Amartya Sen's capability approach has been discussed widely in the health economics discipline. Although measures have been developed to assess capability in economic evaluation, there has been much less attention paid to the decision rules that might be applied alongside. Here, new methods, drawing on the multidimensional poverty and health economics literature, are developed for conducting economic evaluation within the capability approach and focusing on an objective of achieving "sufficient capability". This objective more closely reflects the concern with equity that pervades the capability approach and the method has the advantage of retaining the longitudinal aspect of estimating outcome that is associated with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whilst also drawing on notions of shortfall associated with assessments of poverty. Economic evaluation from this perspective is illustrated in an osteoarthritis patient group undergoing joint replacement, with capability wellbeing assessed using ICECAP-O. Recommendations for taking the sufficient capability approach forward are provided. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Coupling Climate Models and Forward-Looking Economic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Judd, K.; Brock, W. A.

    2010-12-01

    Authors: Dr. Kenneth L. Judd, Hoover Institution, and Prof. William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin Current climate models range from General Circulation Models (GCM’s) with millions of degrees of freedom to models with few degrees of freedom. Simple Energy Balance Climate Models (EBCM’s) help us understand the dynamics of GCM’s. The same is true in economics with Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGE’s) where some models are infinite-dimensional multidimensional differential equations but some are simple models. Nordhaus (2007, 2010) couples a simple EBCM with a simple economic model. One- and two- dimensional ECBM’s do better at approximating damages across the globe and positive and negative feedbacks from anthroprogenic forcing (North etal. (1981), Wu and North (2007)). A proper coupling of climate and economic systems is crucial for arriving at effective policies. Brock and Xepapadeas (2010) have used Fourier/Legendre based expansions to study the shape of socially optimal carbon taxes over time at the planetary level in the face of damages caused by polar ice cap melt (as discussed by Oppenheimer, 2005) but in only a “one dimensional” EBCM. Economists have used orthogonal polynomial expansions to solve dynamic, forward-looking economic models (Judd, 1992, 1998). This presentation will couple EBCM climate models with basic forward-looking economic models, and examine the effectiveness and scaling properties of alternative solution methods. We will use a two dimensional EBCM model on the sphere (Wu and North, 2007) and a multicountry, multisector regional model of the economic system. Our aim will be to gain insights into intertemporal shape of the optimal carbon tax schedule, and its impact on global food production, as modeled by Golub and Hertel (2009). We will initially have limited computing resources and will need to focus on highly aggregated models. However, this will be more complex than existing models with forward

  7. Modeling the economics of LLW volume reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voth, M.H.; Witzig, W.F.

    1986-01-01

    Generators of low-level (radioactive) waste (LLW) are under pressure to implement volume reduction (VR) programs for political and economic reasons. Political reasons include the appearance of generating less waste or meeting quotas. Economic reasons include avoiding high disposal costs and associated surcharges. Volume reduction results in less total volume over which fixed disposal costs are allocated and therefore higher unit costs for disposal. As numerous small compacts are developed, this often overlooked effect becomes more pronounced. The described model presents two unique significant features. First, a feedback loop considers the impact of VR on disposal rates, and second, it appeals to logic without extensive knowledge of VR technology or computer modeling. The latter feature is especially useful in conveying information to students and nontechnical decision makers, demonstrating the impact of each of a complicated set of variables with reproducible results

  8. Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paas, Wim; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Ven, van de Gerrie; Reidsma, Pytrik

    2016-01-01

    Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts

  9. Hydro-economic modelling in mining catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa Moreno, J. S.; McIntyre, N.; Rivera, D.; Smart, J. C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Hydro-economic models are gaining momentum because of their capacity to model both the physical processes related to water supply, and socio-economic factors determining water demand. This is particularly valuable in the midst of the large uncertainty upon future climate conditions and social trends. Agriculture, urban uses and environmental flows have received a lot of attention from researchers, as these tend to be the main consumers of water in most catchments. Mine water demand, although very important in several small and medium-sized catchments worldwide, has received less attention and only few models have attempted to reproduce its dynamics with other users. This paper describes an on-going project that addresses this gap, by developing a hydro-economic model in the upper Aconcagua River in Chile. This is a mountain catchment with large scale mining and hydro-power users at high altitudes, and irrigation areas in a downstream valley. Relevant obstacles to the model included the lack of input climate data, which is a common feature in several mining areas, the complex hydrological processes in the area and the difficulty of quantifying the value of water used by mines. A semi-distributed model developed within the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP), was calibrated to reproduce water supply, and this was complemented with an analysis of the value of water for mining based on two methods; water markets and an analysis of its production processes. Agriculture and other users were included through methods commonly used in similar models. The outputs help understanding the value of water in the catchment, and its sensitivity to changes in climate variables, market prices, environmental regulations and changes in the production of minerals, crops and energy. The results of the project highlight the importance of merging hydrology and socio-economic calculations in mining regions, in order to better understand trade-offs and cost of opportunity of using

  10. Economic Modeling of Compressed Air Energy Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Bo

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the variable nature of wind resources, the increasing penetration level of wind power will have a significant impact on the operation and planning of the electric power system. Energy storage systems are considered an effective way to compensate for the variability of wind generation. This paper presents a detailed production cost simulation model to evaluate the economic value of compressed air energy storage (CAES in systems with large-scale wind power generation. The co-optimization of energy and ancillary services markets is implemented in order to analyze the impacts of CAES, not only on energy supply, but also on system operating reserves. Both hourly and 5-minute simulations are considered to capture the economic performance of CAES in the day-ahead (DA and real-time (RT markets. The generalized network flow formulation is used to model the characteristics of CAES in detail. The proposed model is applied on a modified IEEE 24-bus reliability test system. The numerical example shows that besides the economic benefits gained through energy arbitrage in the DA market, CAES can also generate significant profits by providing reserves, compensating for wind forecast errors and intra-hour fluctuation, and participating in the RT market.

  11. [Systematic economic assessment and quality evaluation for traditional Chinese medicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao; Guo, Li-ping; Shang, Hong-cai; Ren, Ming; Lei, Xiang

    2015-05-01

    To learn about the economic studies on traditional Chinese medicines in domestic literatures, in order to analyze the current economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines and explore the existing problems. Efforts were made to search CNKI, VIP, Wanfang database and CBM by computer and include all literatures about economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines published on professional domestic journals in the systematic assessment and quality evaluation. Finally, 50 articles were included in the study, and the systematic assessment and quality evaluation were made for them in terms of titles, year, authors' identity, expense source, disease type, study perspective, study design type, study target, study target source, time limit, cost calculation, effect indicator, analytical technique and sensitivity analysis. The finally quality score was 0.74, which is very low. The results of the study showed insufficient studies on economics of traditional Chinese medicines, short study duration and simple evaluation methods, which will be solved through unremitting efforts in the future.

  12. economic assessment of the performance of private sector ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Admin

    Economic and Extension, Delta State University, Asaba Campus, Nigeria ... This paper critically attempts to assess the performance of the private sector ... economy would depend to a large extent on the quantity ..... New York, USA: McGraw.

  13. Modelling the economic consequences of Marine Protected Areas using the BEMCOM model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, A.; Andersen, J.L.; Christensen, Asbjørn

    2013-01-01

    the question ‘what’s best?’, i.e. finds the overall optimal effort allocation, from an economic point of view, between multiple harvesting fleets fishing under a subset of restrictions on catches and effort levels. The BEMCOM model is described and applied to the case of the Danish sandeel fishery in the North......This paper introduces and describes in detail the bioeconomic optimization model BEMCOM (BioEconomic Model to evaluate the COnsequences of Marine protected areas) that has been developed to assess the economic effects of introducing Marine Protected Areas (MPA) for fisheries. BEMCOM answers...... Sea. It has several times been suggested to close parts of the sandeel fishery in the North Sea out of concern for other species feeding on sandeel and/or spawning in the sandeel habitats. The economic effects of such closures have been assessed using BEMCOM. The results indicate that the model yields...

  14. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

  15. Economic model of the US uranium market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, A.D.

    1984-01-01

    An economic model of the US uranium market is developed using annual data for the period 1966-81. The model consists of five stochastic equations explaining uranium consumption, forward commitments, mine production, contract prices, and spot prices. A forecasting exercise is also undertaken. By way of essential background information, however, an analysis of current trends in the international uranium market is given, followed by a summary of historical price movements in the US uranium market. A brief discussion on the current state of the US market precedes the statistical analysis. 19 footnotes and references, 3 tables

  16. Economic tour package model using heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Syariza Abdul; Benjamin, Aida Mauziah; Bakar, Engku Muhammad Nazri Engku Abu

    2014-07-01

    A tour-package is a prearranged tour that includes products and services such as food, activities, accommodation, and transportation, which are sold at a single price. Since the competitiveness within tourism industry is very high, many of the tour agents try to provide attractive tour-packages in order to meet tourist satisfaction as much as possible. Some of the criteria that are considered by the tourist are the number of places to be visited and the cost of the tour-packages. Previous studies indicate that tourists tend to choose economical tour-packages and aiming to visit as many places as they can cover. Thus, this study proposed tour-package model using heuristic approach. The aim is to find economical tour-packages and at the same time to propose as many places as possible to be visited by tourist in a given geographical area particularly in Langkawi Island. The proposed model considers only one starting point where the tour starts and ends at an identified hotel. This study covers 31 most attractive places in Langkawi Island from various categories of tourist attractions. Besides, the allocation of period for lunch and dinner are included in the proposed itineraries where it covers 11 popular restaurants around Langkawi Island. In developing the itinerary, the proposed heuristic approach considers time window for each site (hotel/restaurant/place) so that it represents real world implementation. We present three itineraries with different time constraints (1-day, 2-day and 3-day tour-package). The aim of economic model is to minimize the tour-package cost as much as possible by considering entrance fee of each visited place. We compare the proposed model with our uneconomic model from our previous study. The uneconomic model has no limitation to the cost with the aim to maximize the number of places to be visited. Comparison between the uneconomic and economic itinerary has shown that the proposed model have successfully achieved the objective that

  17. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

    1985-12-01

    This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  18. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  19. An Assessment of Economic Stability under the New European Economic Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe HURDUZEU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis, followed by the sovereign debt crisis, resulted in high unemployment, unsustainable public finances and deepening disparities between Euro Area member states, and underlined the necessity of strengthening economic coordination. In order to lessen the effects of the crises, to prevent further deepening of the economic context and the appearance of new similar situations, the European framework was improved by the provisions of the new economic governance. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects regarding macroeconomic stability within Euro Area member states, achieved under the new economic governance framework. In this respect, the first part of the paper consists in an overview of the provisions imposed through the European Semester, the reformed Stability and Growth Pact and the other elements of the new European governance. In order to assess the achievement of economic stability we analyzed data for Southern Euro Area member states, during 2009-2013, as this group of countries registered most issues during 2013. We took into consideration five important indicators, essential in any economy that form the macroeconomic stability pentagon: economic growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, budgetary balance and current account balance. By comparing the area obtained through the macroeconomic stability pentagon, we conclude on meeting one of the main objectives of the new European governance: economic stability.

  20. Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis | Water Power | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis Economic and Power System Modeling and Analysis technologies, their possible deployment scenarios, and the economic impacts of this deployment. As a research approaches used to estimate direct and indirect economic impacts of offshore renewable energy projects

  1. Probabilistic Criterion for the Economical Assessment of Nuclear Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, L; Florido, Pablo; Bergallo, Juan

    2000-01-01

    In this paper a MonteCarlo probabilistic model for the economic evaluation of nuclear power plants is presented.The probabilistic results have shown a wide spread on the economic performance due to the schedule complexity and coupling if tasks.This spread increasing to the discount rate, end hence, it becomes more important for developing countries

  2. Energy consumption and economic growth. Assessing the evidence from Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hondroyiannis, George; Lolos, Sarantis; Papapetrou, Evangelia

    2002-01-01

    This paper attempts to shed light into the empirical relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, for Greece (1960-1996) employing the vector error-correction model estimation. The vector specification includes energy consumption, real GDP and price developments, the latter taken to represent a measure of economic efficiency. The empirical evidence suggests that there is a long-run relationship between the three variables, supporting the endogeneity of energy consumption and real output. These findings have important policy implications, since the adoption of suitable structural policies aiming at improving economic efficiency can induce energy conservation without impeding economic growth

  3. Modeling the Development of Vocational Competence: A Psychometric Model for Economic Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Viola Katharina; Winther, Esther; Festner, Dagmar

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses the development of vocational competence through economic vocational educational training (VET) from a theoretical and psychometric perspective. Most assessment and competence models tend to adopt a state perspective toward assessments of competence and carve out different structures of competence for diverse vocational…

  4. War and Peace: an Economic Liberalist Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    N.M. HUNG

    2009-01-01

    In a simple formal model of two-country, two-good with an elementary Conflict Technology, we use a rudimentary game theoretics to study the matter of war and peace, where under peace, cooperative exchange takes place, and where, in case of war, the winner takes all through appropriation of the whole endowment left after payment of armament expenditures. We provide conditions under which war is inevitable, then go on to characterize situations where war, still probable, is not necessarily the ...

  5. Elements for a comprehensive assessment of natural resources: bridging environmental economics with ecological economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez Romero, Paulo Cesar; Cubillos Gonzalez, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The predominance of economic assessments regarding the value of natural resources has caused a sub-valuing of the real benefits which societies can obtain from nature. This is due to a lack of knowledge about the complexity of ecological functions, as well as a dismissal of the integrated relations of the sub-systems which make up the environment. It is therefore necessary to establish conceptual bridges between environmental sciences to fill in the gaps in economic valuation methods by recurring to diverse measuring scales, participation from the different actors involved, and a principle of precaution regarding the limits of nature. This paper explores the concepts of value and economic valuation methods from the perspectives of Environmental Economics and Ecological Economics. It then proposes an integration of valuing methodologies which take into account how complementary and complex natures value relations are. This proposal of valuing integrally ecosystem goods and services contributes to adjusting political decisions more accordingly to real environmental conditions.

  6. Physical-Socio-Economic Modeling of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Vatan, F.

    2008-12-01

    Because of the global nature of climate change, any assessment of the effects of plans, policies, and response to climate change demands a model that encompasses the entire Earth System, including socio- economic factors. Physics-based climate models of the factors that drive global temperatures, rainfall patterns, and sea level are necessary but not sufficient to guide decision making. Actions taken by farmers, industrialists, environmentalists, politicians, and other policy makers may result in large changes to economic factors, international relations, food production, disease vectors, and beyond. These consequences will not be felt uniformly around the globe or even across a given region. Policy models must comprehend all of these considerations. Combining physics-based models of the Earth's climate and biosphere with societal models of population dynamics, economics, and politics is a grand challenge with high stakes. We propose to leverage our recent advances in modeling and simulation of military stability and reconstruction operations to models that address all these areas of concern. Following over twenty years' experience of successful combat simulation, JPL has started developing Minerva, which will add demographic, economic, political, and media/information models to capabilities that already exist. With these new models, for which we have design concepts, it will be possible to address a very wide range of potential national and international problems that were previously inaccessible. Our climate change model builds on Minerva and expands the geographical horizon from playboxes containing regions and neighborhoods to the entire globe. This system consists of a collection of interacting simulation models that specialize in different aspects of the global situation. They will each contribute to and draw from a pool of shared data. The basic models are: the physical model; the demographic model; the political model; the economic model; and the media

  7. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  8. EU climate policy up to 2020: An economic impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehringer, Christoph, E-mail: boehringer@uni-oldenburg.d [Department of Economics, University of Oldenburg (Germany); Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Loeschel, Andreas [Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim (Germany); Moslener, Ulf [KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt (Germany); Rutherford, Thomas F. [Center for Energy Policy and Economy (CEPE), ETH Zuerich (Switzerland)

    2009-07-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost.

  9. EU climate policy up to 2020. An economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boehringer, Christoph; Loeschel, Andreas; Moslener, Ulf; Rutherford, Thomas F.

    2009-01-01

    In its fight against climate change the EU is committed to reducing its overall greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. To meet this commitment, the EU builds on segmented market regulation with an EU-wide cap-and-trade system for emissions from energy-intensive installations (ETS sectors) and additional measures by each EU Member State covering emission sources outside the cap-and-trade system (the non-ETS sector). Furthermore, the EU has launched additional policy measures such as renewable energy subsidies in order to promote compliance with the climate policy target. Basic economic reasoning suggests that emission market segmentation and overlapping regulation can create substantial excess costs if we focus only on the climate policy target. In this paper, we evaluate the economic impacts of EU climate policy based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use. Our results highlight the importance of initial market distortions and imperfections as well as alternative baseline projections for the appropriate assessment of EU compliance cost. (author)

  10. An economic assessment of contemporary kidney transplant practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrod, David A; Schnitzler, Mark A; Xiao, Huiling; Irish, William; Tuttle-Newhall, Elizabeth; Chang, Su-Hsin; Kasiske, Bertram L; Alhamad, Tarek; Lentine, Krista L

    2018-05-01

    Kidney transplantation is the optimal therapy for end-stage renal disease, prolonging survival and reducing spending. Prior economic analyses of kidney transplantation, using Markov models, have generally assumed compatible, low-risk donors. The economic implications of transplantation with high Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) deceased donors, ABO incompatible living donors, and HLA incompatible living donors have not been assessed. The costs of transplantation and dialysis were compared with the use of discrete event simulation over a 10-year period, with data from the United States Renal Data System, University HealthSystem Consortium, and literature review. Graft failure rates and expenditures were adjusted for donor characteristics. All transplantation options were associated with improved survival compared with dialysis (transplantation: 5.20-6.34 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] vs dialysis: 4.03 QALYs). Living donor and low-KDPI deceased donor transplantations were cost-saving compared with dialysis, while transplantations using high-KDPI deceased donor, ABO-incompatible or HLA-incompatible living donors were cost-effective (<$100 000 per QALY). Predicted costs per QALY range from $39 939 for HLA-compatible living donor transplantation to $80 486 for HLA-incompatible donors compared with $72 476 for dialysis. In conclusion, kidney transplantation is cost-effective across all donor types despite higher costs for marginal organs and innovative living donor practices. © 2018 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  11. DSEM, Radioactive Waste Disposal Site Economic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, P.R.

    2005-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: The Disposal Site Economic Model calculates the average generator price, or average price per cubic foot charged by a disposal facility to a waste generator, one measure of comparing the economic attractiveness of different waste disposal site and disposal technology combinations. The generator price is calculated to recover all costs necessary to develop, construct, operate, close, and care for a site through the end of the institutional care period and to provide the necessary financial returns to the site developer and lender (when used). Six alternative disposal technologies, based on either private or public financing, can be considered - shallow land disposal, intermediate depth disposal, above or below ground vaults, modular concrete canister disposal, and earth mounded concrete bunkers - based on either private or public development. 2 - Method of solution: The economic models incorporate default cost data from the Conceptual Design Report (DOE/LLW-60T, June 1987), a study by Rodgers Associates Engineering Corporation. Because all costs are in constant 1986 dollars, the figures must be modified to account for inflation. Interest during construction is either capitalized for the private developer or rolled into the loan for the public developer. All capital costs during construction are depreciated over the operation life of the site using straight-line depreciation for the private sector. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: Maxima of - 100 years post-operating period, 30 years operating period, 15 years pre-operating period. The model should be used with caution outside the range of 1.8 to 10.5 million cubic feet of total volume. Depreciation is not recognized with public development

  12. Economics, modeling, planning and management of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.; Khan, A.M.; Furlan, G.

    1989-01-01

    The Workshop attended by 89 participants from 40 countries aimed to provide participants with an overview of global and regional issues and to familiarize them with analytical tools and modeling techniques appropriate for the analysis and planning of national energy systems. Emphasis was placed on energy-economy-interaction, modelling for balancing energy demand and supply, technical-economic evaluation of energy supply alternatives and energy demand management. This volume presents some of the lectures delivered at the Workshop. The material has been organized in five parts under the headings General Review of Current Energy Trends, Energy and Technology Menu, Basic Analytical Approaches, Energy Modeling and Planning, and Energy Management and Policy. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the lectures presented. Refs, figs and tabs

  13. A Review of Cogent Reflection on the Economic Impact Assessment of Conferences – MICE Tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar J.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available MICE tourism has grown into an important economic sector in many places, and it is quite easy to understand the relevancy of estimating the economic impact of business tourists on the local and regional economies. Several industrial and academic researches has mentioned many methods for economic impact studies (direct, indirect and induced impacts of the conference - MICE tourism related events. Of these, the input-output (I-O model and general equilibrium models (REMI and REM II are widely used for the economic impact assessments. The current paper will review economic impact studies in the c conference - MICE tourism related events and then discusses the issues related to the I-O model and general equilibrium models framework

  14. NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING AND IMPROVING AGRARIAN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bachev

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We incorporate interdisciplinary New Institutional and Transaction Costs Economics and suggest a framework for assessing efficiency of farms and agrarian organizations. Our new approach includes: study of farm and agrarian organizations as governing rather than production structure; assessment of comparative efficiency of alternative market, contract, internal, and hybrid modes of governance; analysis of level of transaction costs and their institutional, behavioral, dimensional, technological and natural factors; determination of criteria of farm efficiency and its effective boundaries; specification of economic role of government and needs for public interventions in agrarian sector; assessment of comparative efficiency of alternative forms of public involvement.

  15. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  16. The impact of inclusion criteria in health economic assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Anke; Thieda, Patricia; Thaler, Kylie; Gartlehner, Gerald

    2011-05-01

    The debate surrounding whether the findings of efficacy studies are applicable to real-world treatment situations is ongoing. The issue of lack of applicability due to a lack of clinical heterogeneity could be addressed by employing less restrictive inclusion criteria. Given that health economic assessments based on cost-effectiveness measures are required by many governments and insurance providers, the impact of this choice may be far reaching. The objective of this article was to explore the use of a pilot study to examine the impact of inclusion criteria on cost-effectiveness results and clinical heterogeneity. A health economic assessment was conducted using QRISK®2 and simulation modelling of different population groups within the pilot study in Lower Austria. Patients were referred by their family physicians to 'Active Prevention' (Vorsorge Aktiv), a community-based lifestyle intervention focused on exercise and nutritional programmes. Cardiovascular risk factors were recorded before and after the intervention and translated to cardiovascular events. As expected, enforcing restrictive inclusion criteria produced stronger and more irrefutable computations - in the expected number of events, the number of deaths, the incremental cost per life-year saved and in the 95% confidence interval. These findings provide insight into the issues surrounding clinical heterogeneity and the need for restrictive inclusion criteria. This is not a full health economic assessment of the intervention. While inclusion criteria provide stronger results by limiting populations to those who would benefit the most, they must be enforced, both within and outside the clinical trial setting. Enforcement has costs, both monetary and arising from unintended negative consequences of enforcement mechanisms. All these considerations will affect the results realized by the payer organization. A pilot study can reveal whether an intervention may be cost effective 'enough' without restrictive

  17. The role of spatial information in the preservation of the shrimp nursery function of mangroves: a spatially explicit bio-economic model for the assessment of land use trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavalloni, Matteo; Groeneveld, Rolf A; van Zwieten, Paul A M

    2014-10-01

    Conversion to aquaculture affects the provision of important ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems, and this effect depends strongly on the location of the conversion. We introduce in a bio-economic mathematical programming model relevant spatial elements that affect the provision of the nursery habitat service of mangroves: (1) direct or indirect connection of mangroves to watercourses; (2) the spatial allocation of aquaculture ponds; and (3) the presence of non-linear relations between mangrove extent and juvenile recruitment to wild shrimp populations. By tracing out the production possibilities frontier of wild and cultivated shrimp, the model assesses the role of spatial information in the trade-off between aquaculture and the nursery habitat function using spatial elements relevant to our model of a mangrove area in Ca Mau Province, Viet Nam. Results show that where mangrove forests have to coexist with shrimp aquaculture ponds, the inclusion of specific spatial information on ecosystem functions in considerations of land allocation can achieve aquaculture benefits while largely preserving the economic benefits generated by the nursery habitat function. However, if spatial criteria are ignored, ill-advised land allocation decisions can easily lead to a collapse of the mangrove's nursery function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessing the economic impact of public investment in Malaysia: a case study on MyRapid Transit project using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

    OpenAIRE

    Muniandy, Meenachi

    2017-01-01

    The central focus of this thesis is the question of whether public investment in transport infrastructure contributes positively to Malaysia’s economic growth and welfare. Although there are strong analytical reasons to believe that public investment spending is one of the important variables that influence growth, there remains significant uncertainty about its actual degree of influence. In Malaysia, whenever there is a collapse in domestic demand, government spending becomes an important m...

  19. Economic modelling with low-cognition agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, Paul

    2006-10-01

    The standard socio-economic model (SSSM) postulates very considerable cognitive powers on the part of its agents. They are able to gather all relevant information in any given situation, and to take the optimal decision on the basis of it, given their tastes and preferences. This behavioural rule is postulated to be universal. The concept of bounded rationality relaxes this somewhat, by permitting agents to have access to only limited amounts of information. But agents still optimise subject to their information set and tastes. Empirical work in economics over the past 20 years or so has shown that in general these behavioural postulates lack empirical validity. Instead, agents appear to have limited ability to gather information, and use simple rules of thumb to process the information which they have in order to take decisions. Building theoretical models on these realistic foundations which give better accounts of empirical phenomena than does the SSSM is an important challenge to both economists and econophysicists. Considerable progress has already been made in a short space of time, and examples are given in this paper.

  20. USING GEM - GLOBAL ECONOMIC MODEL IN ACHIEVING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORECAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Madalina Orac

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The global economic development model has proved to be insufficiently reliable under the new economic crisis. As a result, the entire theoretical construction about the global economy needs rethinking and reorientation. In this context, it is quite clear that only through effective use of specific techniques and tools of economic-mathematical modeling, statistics, regional analysis and economic forecasting it is possible to obtain an overview of the future economy.

  1. Economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drummond, M F; Shannon, H S

    1986-05-01

    This paper considers how the economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety can be strengthened. Its main focus is on how economic appraisal techniques, such as cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis, can be adapted to the requirements of the risk-assessment process. Following a discussion of the main methodological issues raised by the use of economic appraisal, illustrated by examples from the health and safety field, a number of practical issues are discussed. These include the consideration of the distribution of costs, effects and benefits, taking account of uncertainty, risk probabilities and public perception, making the appraisal techniques useful to the early stages of the risk-assessment process and structuring the appraisal to permit continuous feedback to the participants in the risk-assessment process. It is concluded that while the way of thinking embodied in economic appraisal is highly relevant to the consideration of choices in chemical safety, the application of these principles in formal analysis of risk reduction procedures presents a more mixed picture. The main suggestions for improvement in the analyses performed are the undertaking of sensitivity analyses of study results to changes in the key assumptions, the presentation of the distribution of costs and benefits by viewpoint, the comparison of health and safety measures in terms of their incremental cost per life-year (or quality-adjusted life-year) gained and the more frequent retrospective review and revision of the economic analyses that are undertaken.

  2. Design of an electric motorway - Social-economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragnol, Ludovic; Monnoyer-Smith, Laurence

    2017-07-01

    The author reports an exploratory analysis of the economic viability of a solution of electrification of goods road transport based on the use of electrical motorways, i.e. motorways along which a catenary system would be installed to feed trucks equipped with a pantograph (a German research project). The objective is here to assess whether such a project of electrification (financed of not by users through a toll) would be profitable. The author first assesses market costs and non-market costs of each transport mode while taking hypotheses on the concerned traffic into account, and by using a full costing approach. A hierarchy of likelihood of the different studied scenarios is then built up, which allows technological choices to be sorted. Scenarios are based on a reference situation (thermal propulsion), on the use of a hybrid truck on electric motorway, of an electric shuttle tractor on electric motorway, or of an electric truck on a conventional motorway. Then, the author proposes a real-life simulations based of motorway traffic data, and on the use of the Modev traffic model

  3. Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

    1977-03-01

    The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

  4. Limitations of JEDI Models | Jobs and Economic Development Impact Models |

    Science.gov (United States)

    Group's IMPLAN accounting software. For JEDI, these are updated every two years for the best available -output modeling remains a widely used methodology for measuring economic development activity. Definition definition of the geographic area under consideration. Datasets of multipliers from IMPLAN are available at

  5. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (2011 - part 2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this workshop Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis. focused on conceptual and methodological issues - estimating impacts and valuing damages on a sectoral basis.

  6. Hurricane Sandy Economic Impacts Assessment: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach and Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2017-08-07

    Economists use computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to assess how economies react and self-organize after changes in policies, technology, and other exogenous shocks. CGE models are equation-based, empirically calibrated, and inspired by Neoclassical economic theory. The focus of this work was to validate the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) CGE model and apply it to the problem of assessing the economic impacts of severe events. We used the 2012 Hurricane Sandy event as our validation case. In particular, this work first introduces the model and then describes the validation approach and the empirical data available for studying the event of focus. Shocks to the model are then formalized and applied. Finally, model results and limitations are presented and discussed, pointing out both the model degree of accuracy and the assessed total damage caused by Hurricane Sandy.

  7. "Economics with Training Wheels": Using Blogs in Teaching and Assessing Introductory Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Michael P.

    2012-01-01

    Blogs provide a dynamic interactive medium for online discussion, consistent with communal constructivist pedagogy. The author of this article describes and evaluates a blog assignment used in the teaching and assessment of a small (40-60 students) introductory economics course. Using qualitative and quantitative data collected across four…

  8. Simulation of electric power conservation strategies: model of economic evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinhel, A.C.C.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology for the economic evaluation model for energy conservation programs to be executed by the National Program of Electric Power Conservation is presented. From data as: forecasting of conserved energy, tariffs, energy costs and budget, the model calculates the economic indexes for the programs, allowing the evaluation of economic impacts in the electric sector. (C.G.C.)

  9. An Alternative Macro-economic Model for the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Bryan

    1976-01-01

    Presents Michal Kalecki's macro-economic model and two-sector version of the model by Robinson and Eatwell as circular flow diagrams. Advantages of using this approach in first-year undergraduate economics programs are discussed. Available from: General Secretary, Economics Association, Room 340, Hamilton House, Mabledon Place, London WC1H 9BH,…

  10. Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification's impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmi, Nathalie; Allemand, Denis; Dupont, Sam; Safa, Alain; Haraldsson, Gunnar; Nunes, Paulo A L D; Moore, Chris; Hattam, Caroline; Reynaud, Stéphanie; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Fine, Maoz; Turley, Carol; Jeffree, Ross; Orr, James; Munday, Philip L; Cooley, Sarah R

    2013-01-01

    Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research.

  11. Economic Risk Assessment Taking Into Account the Volume Oscillator Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Mihaela LAPADUSI

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic risk can be assessed from many points of view, but generally speaking it means the firm's inability to match workload with cost structure. Expansion of production capacity, adaptation to new technologies, diversification of products are only a few factors influencing risk. These, along with financial risk and bankruptcy risk constitute the most important category of risk which presents a great interest for the banks, shareholders, managers, business partners, etc. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of tje oscillation of your company's activity from the point of view of economic risk. The main objective of this research lies in economic risk assessment by means of the margin of safety, the safety index and critical time point.

  12. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, H.; Wang, L.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This article reports an economic assessment on a hydride hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. In this project, a pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen in the tin bath in the float glass factory. Detailed economic assessment, cost analysis and a cash flow statement are presented, and financial net present value (NPV), as well as intrinsic rate of return (IRR), is calculated. The results shows that this project, which is feasible technologically, is profitable economically. (Author)

  13. Some Environmental and Economic Aspects of Energy Saving Measures in Houses. An estimation model for total energy consumption and emissions to air from the Norwegian dwelling stock, and a life cycle assessment method for energy saving measures in houses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myhre, L

    1995-12-01

    Motivated by the need to reduce the total energy consumption and the environmental load from society, this doctoral thesis discusses energy conservation measures on existing houses. Alternative additional thermal insulation measures are assessed using an interdisciplinary life cycle approach. The first task is to develop an interdisciplinary assessment method for building improvement measures, taking account of energy consumption, resource consumption, emissions to air of environmentally harmful gases, and economic costs during the entire life cycle of the building. The second task is to develop an estimation model for the total energy consumption and emissions to air of environmentally harmful gases from the dwelling stock of Norway. Finally, the third task is to assess the total energy saving potential and the total environmental benefits of energy saving measures in houses on a national level, including only life cycle analyses of additional thermal insulation measures on single houses. Chap 2 describes the dwelling stock in Norway. Chaps 3 and 4 present an estimation model for total energy consumption and emissions to air from the dwelling stock, and calculations using the model. Chaps 5 and 6 propose and use a calculation method for the assessment of additional thermal insulation measures, using a ``cradle-to-grave`` approach. Since hydroelectric power is the main energy source in this sector in Norway, estimated payback periods for emissions to air are long. But hydroelectric power saved in this sector may be used to obtain reduction in fossil fuel use in other sectors as discussed in Chap 7. Some of the topics discussed are further elaborated on in appendices. 107 refs., 39 figs, 88 tabs.

  14. Integrating the Analysis of Mental Operations into Multilevel Models to Validate an Assessment of Higher Education Students' Competency in Business and Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brückner, Sebastian; Pellegrino, James W.

    2016-01-01

    The Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing indicate that validation of assessments should include analyses of participants' response processes. However, such analyses typically are conducted only to supplement quantitative field studies with qualitative data, and seldom are such data connected to quantitative data on student or item…

  15. Economic evaluation of influenza vaccination : Assessment for The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Bos, Jasper M.; Van Gennep, Mark; Jager, Johannes C.; Baltussen, Rob; Sprenger, Marc J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the costs associated with influenza and the cost effectiveness (net costs per life-year gained) of influenza vaccination in The Netherlands. Design and setting: The economic evaluation comprised a cost-of-illness assessment and a

  16. Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic Growth. ... Furthermore, it calls for effective implementation and monitoring of financial policies as well as adequate supervision of the financial sector by the relevant authorities to avoid lopsided compliance with financial and monetary guidelines. Keywords: ...

  17. Economic assessment of Q fever in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Prins, J.; Bergevoet, R.H.M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the economic impact of controlling the Q fever epidemic in 2007-2011 in the Netherlands is assessed. Whereas most of the long-term benefits of the implemented control programme stem from reduced disease burden and human health costs, the majority of short-term intervention costs were

  18. Economic assessment of oil palm projects in Nigeria. | Nwawe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, this study was designed to economically assess oil palm projects in Nigeria. Secondary data used for this study were collected from Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) and related journals. The data collected were analyzed using discounted cash flow techniques. The result shows that at 32% interest ...

  19. Potential economic impact assessment for cattle parasites in Mexico review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Here, economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis. The main factors taken into consideration for this assessment included the total number of animals at risk, potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production or weight gain, and records of cond...

  20. Methodology for reliability, economic and environmental assessment of wave energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorpe, T.W.; Muirhead, S.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the Preliminary Actions in Wave Energy R and D for DG XII's Joule programme, methodologies were developed to facilitate assessment of the reliability, economics and environmental impact of wave energy. This paper outlines these methodologies, their limitations and areas requiring further R and D. (author)

  1. Writing, Evaluating and Assessing Data Response Items in Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman-Dickenson, D. I.

    1989-01-01

    Describes some of the problems in writing data response items in economics for use by A Level and General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) students. Examines the experience of two series of workshops on writing items, evaluating them and assessing responses from schools. Offers suggestions for producing packages of data response items as…

  2. Assessment of ecological, economic and social impacts of grain for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to noticeably and systematically assess ecological, economic and social effects of the grain for green project on county level, this study investigated the benefits of carbon sequestration to the soil of farmland-converted forestland (in 0 to 20 cm soil depth), the change in household income structure and social ...

  3. Presenting of a material exposure health risk assessment model in Oil and Gas Industries (case study: Pars Economic and Energy Region)

    OpenAIRE

    M. Heydari; M. Omidvari; I. M. Fam

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: One of the most important threats for employees working in chemical industries is exposing to the chemical materials. Lack of precaution and control regulations during working with chemicals can have irreparable consequences. So, in order to achieve an effective control program, it is necessary to have an appropriate assessment of the procedures involving exposure to the chemicals. William-fine method can provide an acceptable insight into hazard risk rate. . Material...

  4. Current challenges in health economic modeling of cancer therapies: a research inquiry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Jeffrey D; Foley, Kathleen A; Russell, Mason W

    2014-05-01

    The demand for economic models that evaluate cancer treatments is increasing, as healthcare decision makers struggle for ways to manage their budgets while providing the best care possible to patients with cancer. Yet, after nearly 2 decades of cultivating and refining techniques for modeling the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of cancer therapies, serious methodologic and policy challenges have emerged that question the adequacy of economic modeling as a sound decision-making tool in oncology. We sought to explore some of the contentious issues associated with the development and use of oncology economic models as informative tools in current healthcare decision-making. Our objective was to draw attention to these complex pharmacoeconomic concerns and to promote discussion within the oncology and health economics research communities. Using our combined expertise in health economics research and economic modeling, we structured our inquiry around the following 4 questions: (1) Are economic models adequately addressing questions relevant to oncology decision makers; (2) What are the methodologic limitations of oncology economic models; (3) What guidelines are followed for developing oncology economic models; and (4) Is the evolution of oncology economic modeling keeping pace with treatment innovation? Within the context of each of these questions, we discuss issues related to the technical limitations of oncology modeling, the availability of adequate data for developing models, and the problems with how modeling analyses and results are presented and interpreted. There is general acceptance that economic models are good, essential tools for decision-making, but the practice of oncology and its rapidly evolving technologies present unique challenges that make assessing and demonstrating value especially complex. There is wide latitude for improvement in oncology modeling methodologies and how model results are presented and interpreted. Complex technical and

  5. Brick industry: Technical and economic assessment of energy saving measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florio, G.; Romeo, G. (Calabria Univ., Arcavacata di Rende (Italy). Dipt. di Meccanica)

    Starting from a detailed energy analysis of the production cycle of bricks, the authors make a technical and economic assessment of any possible measure aimed at rationalizing energy. They take energy conservation into consideration not only through the use of exhausted oil residues, but also through the employment of a turboalternator or an internal combustion engine for cogeneration. Both applications of cogeneration prove to be highly interesting from an economic viewpoint even though the turboalternator is put at a disadvantage in competing with internal combustion engines since it increases the overall cogeneration plant costs with respect to the latter.

  6. Accelerator assisted repositories, technical issue identification and economic assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, T.; Favale, A.; Berwald, D. [Northrop Grumman Corp., Bethpage, NY (United States)

    1995-12-31

    An investigation (technical and economic) is presented to quantify the impact of accelerator assisted repository (AAR) system on the US national nuclear repository strategy. An overview of US spent fuel policy is presented which provides a means to comparatively assess competing spent fuel disposition technologies under investigation. The advantages of an AAR system are highlighted and discussed. A companion economic analysis is presented. The results indicate that although a US geologic waste repository will continue to be required, waste partitioning and accelerator transmutation of selected actinides, and long-lived fission products, can result in substantial benefits. (author) 18 refs.

  7. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  8. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  9. Modelling Global Land Use and Social Implications in the Sustainability Assessment of Biofuels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløverpris, Jesper; Wenzel, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    Cross-fertilising environmental, economic and geographical modelling to improve the environmental assessment of biofuel......Cross-fertilising environmental, economic and geographical modelling to improve the environmental assessment of biofuel...

  10. An economic assessment of potential ethanol production pathways in Ireland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deverell, Rory; McDonnell, Kevin; Ward, Shane; Devlin, Ger [Department of Biosystems Engineering, Agriculture and Food Science Building, University College Dublin 4, Belfield (Ireland)

    2009-10-15

    An economic assessment was conducted on five biomass-to-ethanol production pathways utilising the feedstock: wheat, triticale, sugarbeet, miscanthus and straw. The analysis includes the costs and margins for all the stakeholders along the economic chain. This analysis reveals that under current market situations in Ireland, the production of ethanol under the same tax regime as petrol makes it difficult to compete against that fuel, with tax breaks, however, it can compete against petrol. On the other hand, even under favourable tax breaks it will be difficult for indigenously produced ethanol to compete against cheaper sources of imported ethanol. Therefore, the current transport fuel market has no economic reason to consume indigenously produced ethanol made from the indigenously grown feedstock analysed at a price that reflects all the stakeholders' costs. To deliver a significant penetration of indigenous ethanol into the market would require some form of compulsory inclusion or else considerable financial supports to feedstock and ethanol producers. (author)

  11. An economic assessment of potential ethanol production pathways in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deverell, Rory; McDonnell, Kevin; Ward, Shane; Devlin, Ger

    2009-01-01

    An economic assessment was conducted on five biomass-to-ethanol production pathways utilising the feedstock: wheat, triticale, sugarbeet, miscanthus and straw. The analysis includes the costs and margins for all the stakeholders along the economic chain. This analysis reveals that under current market situations in Ireland, the production of ethanol under the same tax regime as petrol makes it difficult to compete against that fuel, with tax breaks, however, it can compete against petrol. On the other hand, even under favourable tax breaks it will be difficult for indigenously produced ethanol to compete against cheaper sources of imported ethanol. Therefore, the current transport fuel market has no economic reason to consume indigenously produced ethanol made from the indigenously grown feedstock analysed at a price that reflects all the stakeholders' costs. To deliver a significant penetration of indigenous ethanol into the market would require some form of compulsory inclusion or else considerable financial supports to feedstock and ethanol producers.

  12. A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, Michael

    2004-01-01

    The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

  13. The application of statistical methods to assess economic assets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Dianov

    2017-01-01

    out precisely in the boundary of the typological group to which the object is identified.The rationale for the comprehensive application of statistical methods in the implementation of cost and comparative approaches in the assessment of economic assets, practical component, are a primary result of scientific research. It is not enough to use methodological developments in the assessment activities in modern conditions of market development and scientific and technical level for the large-scale evaluation of all available material resources of the economy and their total potential. The application of mathematical-statistical apparatus, therefore, is an objective necessity for obtaining general indicators of the size of the national wealth.In conclusion, we can mention about the methodical approaches, the building of model algorithms application of statistical methods in solving scientific and practical problems, depending on the identification belonging of the valued objects. It is premature to talk about the formalization of the application of statistical methods, the results of which would be transformed into a сertain reporting. It requires the solution of a question on the fixed assets’ census at least at the level of regions, subjects of the Russian Federation.

  14. Sensitivity of North American agriculture to ENSO-based climate scenarios and their socio-economic consequences: Modeling in an integrated assessment framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, N.J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Brown, R.A.; Sands, R.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Legler, D. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Ocean Atmosphere Prediction Studies; Srinivasan, R. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Blacklands Research Center; Tiscareno-Lopez, M.

    1997-09-01

    A group of Canadian, US and Mexican natural resource specialists, organized by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under its North American Energy, Environment and Economy (NA3E) Program, has applied a simulation modeling approach to estimating the impact of ENSO-driven climatic variations on the productivity of major crops grown in the three countries. Methodological development is described and results of the simulations presented in this report. EPIC (the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) was the agro-ecosystem model selected-for this study. EPIC uses a daily time step to simulate crop growth and yield, water use, runoff and soil erosion among other variables. The model was applied to a set of so-called representative farms parameterized through a specially-assembled Geographic Information System (GIS) to reflect the soils, topography, crop management and weather typical of the regions represented. Fifty one representative farms were developed for Canada, 66 for the US and 23 for Mexico. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) scenarios for the EPIC simulations were created using the historic record of sea-surface temperature (SST) prevailing in the eastern tropical Pacific for the period October 1--September 30. Each year between 1960 and 1989 was thus assigned to an ENSO category or state. The ENSO states were defined as El Nino (EN, SST warmer than the long-term mean), Strong El Nino (SEN, much warmer), El Viejo (EV, cooler) and Neutral (within {+-}0.5 C of the long-term mean). Monthly means of temperature and precipitation were then calculated at each farm for the period 1960--1989 and the differences (or anomalies) between the means in Neutral years and EN, SEN and EV years determined. The average monthly anomalies for each ENSO state were then used to create new monthly statistics for each farm and ENSO-state combination. The adjusted monthly statistics characteristic of each ENSO state were then used to drive a stochastic-weather simulator

  15. REFERENCE MODELS OF ENDOGENOUS ECONOMIC GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    GEAMĂNU MARINELA

    2012-01-01

    The new endogenous growth theories are a very important research area for shaping the most effective policies and long term sustainable development strategies. Endogenous growth theory has emerged as a reaction to the imperfections of neoclassical theory, by the fact that the economic growth is the endogenous product of an economical system.

  16. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  17. Economic contract theory tests models of mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyl, E Glen; Frederickson, Megan E; Yu, Douglas W; Pierce, Naomi E

    2010-09-07

    Although mutualisms are common in all ecological communities and have played key roles in the diversification of life, our current understanding of the evolution of cooperation applies mostly to social behavior within a species. A central question is whether mutualisms persist because hosts have evolved costly punishment of cheaters. Here, we use the economic theory of employment contracts to formulate and distinguish between two mechanisms that have been proposed to prevent cheating in host-symbiont mutualisms, partner fidelity feedback (PFF) and host sanctions (HS). Under PFF, positive feedback between host fitness and symbiont fitness is sufficient to prevent cheating; in contrast, HS posits the necessity of costly punishment to maintain mutualism. A coevolutionary model of mutualism finds that HS are unlikely to evolve de novo, and published data on legume-rhizobia and yucca-moth mutualisms are consistent with PFF and not with HS. Thus, in systems considered to be textbook cases of HS, we find poor support for the theory that hosts have evolved to punish cheating symbionts; instead, we show that even horizontally transmitted mutualisms can be stabilized via PFF. PFF theory may place previously underappreciated constraints on the evolution of mutualism and explain why punishment is far from ubiquitous in nature.

  18. An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

  19. Assessment of the Economic Structure of Brazilian Agribusiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues Moreira, Vilmar; Kureski, Ricardo; Pereira da Veiga, Claudimar

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an economic assessment of Brazilian agribusiness and its relationship with other economic sectors. It was found that, in 2011, agribusiness had a share of 18.45% (basic prices) and 19.77% (market prices) of Brazilian GDP. The tax burden of agribusiness (20.68%) was higher than that of other sectors (13.59%), despite agribusiness being a major contributor to the generation of foreign exchange, employment, and essential products, such as food. Brazilian agribusiness is a major employer, responsible for 29.39% of national employment. However, its average income is lower than in the other sectors of the Brazilian economy. Finally, agribusiness was found to be the biggest generator of foreign exchange, with a positive balance of trade. It was possible to conclude that agribusiness forms a strong link between agriculture and livestock, industry, and services in other economic sectors. For this reason, it can be said that the development of agribusiness is highly relevant to the process of Brazilian economic development and is therefore important to the progress of economic policies.

  20. Assessment of the Economic Structure of Brazilian Agribusiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues Moreira, Vilmar; Kureski, Ricardo; Pereira da Veiga, Claudimar

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an economic assessment of Brazilian agribusiness and its relationship with other economic sectors. It was found that, in 2011, agribusiness had a share of 18.45% (basic prices) and 19.77% (market prices) of Brazilian GDP. The tax burden of agribusiness (20.68%) was higher than that of other sectors (13.59%), despite agribusiness being a major contributor to the generation of foreign exchange, employment, and essential products, such as food. Brazilian agribusiness is a major employer, responsible for 29.39% of national employment. However, its average income is lower than in the other sectors of the Brazilian economy. Finally, agribusiness was found to be the biggest generator of foreign exchange, with a positive balance of trade. It was possible to conclude that agribusiness forms a strong link between agriculture and livestock, industry, and services in other economic sectors. For this reason, it can be said that the development of agribusiness is highly relevant to the process of Brazilian economic development and is therefore important to the progress of economic policies. PMID:27243040

  1. Assessment of the Economic Structure of Brazilian Agribusiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilmar Rodrigues Moreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an economic assessment of Brazilian agribusiness and its relationship with other economic sectors. It was found that, in 2011, agribusiness had a share of 18.45% (basic prices and 19.77% (market prices of Brazilian GDP. The tax burden of agribusiness (20.68% was higher than that of other sectors (13.59%, despite agribusiness being a major contributor to the generation of foreign exchange, employment, and essential products, such as food. Brazilian agribusiness is a major employer, responsible for 29.39% of national employment. However, its average income is lower than in the other sectors of the Brazilian economy. Finally, agribusiness was found to be the biggest generator of foreign exchange, with a positive balance of trade. It was possible to conclude that agribusiness forms a strong link between agriculture and livestock, industry, and services in other economic sectors. For this reason, it can be said that the development of agribusiness is highly relevant to the process of Brazilian economic development and is therefore important to the progress of economic policies.

  2. A comparative assessment of the economics of plutonium disposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.A.; Miller, J.W.; Reid, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    The US Department of Energy office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE/MD) has been evaluating three technologies for the disposition of approximately 50 metric tons of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs: reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting an early CY 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), a comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule has been conducted by DOE/MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This paper discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the paper is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of these technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This paper also includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs

  3. Proof of Economic Viability of Blended Learning Business Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druhmann, Carsten; Hohenberg, Gregor

    2014-01-01

    The discussion on economically sustainable business models with respect to information technology is lacking in many aspects of proven approaches. In the following contribution the economic viability is valued based on a procedural model for design and evaluation of e-learning business models in the form of a case study. As a case study object a…

  4. An economic assessment of population health risk in region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Vladimirovna Zaytseva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of economic assessment of population health risk as a tool of life qualitymanagement and qualityof labor resources in the region (as factors of a region’s economic security. The technique is based on the cost of reducing the period of disability in the implementation of population health risk and takes into account the effects of risk prevention on levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The method intends to support making decisions on planning measures to reduce population health risk at the level of regions, territories and separate objects to assess their cost-performance, optimization of investment and operating costs to reduce the population health risk and sustainable development of the territory

  5. Assessing the economic effects of Latin American independence

    OpenAIRE

    Prados de la Escosura, Leandro

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the economic consequences of independence in Latin America. Grand interpretations that assess Nineteenth Century Latin America by comparison to the U.S. performance are examined and the alternative approach of using African and Asian post-colonial experiences as the yardstick is explored. Empirical evidence on the consequences of removing the colonial burden and opening up to the international economy is, then, examined. The paper concludes with discussion of when Latin A...

  6. Modeling Renewable Penertration Using a Network Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, A.

    2001-03-01

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of a network economic modeling approach in designing energy systems having renewable and conventional generators. The network approach models the system as a network of processes such as demands, generators, markets, and resources. The model reaches a solution by exchanging prices and quantity information between the nodes of the system. This formulation is very flexible and takes very little time to build and modify models. This paper reports an experiment designing a system with photovoltaic and base and peak fossil generators. The level of PV penetration as a function of its price and the capacities of the fossil generators were determined using the network approach and using an exact, analytic approach. It is found that the two methods agree very closely in terms of the optimal capacities and are nearly identical in terms of annual system costs.

  7. Economic modeling for life extension decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, M.A.; Harrison, D.L.; Carlson, D.D.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for the economic and financial analysis of nuclear plant life extension under uncertainty and demonstrates its use in a case analysis. While the economic and financial evaluation of life extension does not require new analytical tools, such studies should be based on the following three premises. First, the methodology should examine effects at the level of the company or utility system, because the most important economic implications of life extension relate to the altered generation system expansion plan. Second, it should focus on the implications of uncertainty in order to understand the factors that most affect life extension benefits and identify risk management efforts. Third, the methodology should address multiple objectives, at a minimum, both economic and financial objectives

  8. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  9. Two economic, energetic, and environmental assessments of the French nuclear program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielle, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents two studies, which try to assess the economic, energy and environmental impact of the French nuclear program. First, the two models used are described briefly and then each study is discussed separately. The main results are summarized in the conclusion. (author). 4 refs., 5 tabs., 8 figs

  10. New local diesel power stations: an economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wills, R.J.; Reuben, B.G.

    1992-01-01

    A recent investigation examined the economic potential for electricity generation in the U.K. using large slow-speed two-stroke diesel engines of around 40MW unit output. Large diesels are a high efficiency technology, resilient to fuel quality, and with high reliability. Economic analysis compared diesels with other generating options for a range of fuel scenarios and discount rates. Merit order potential and total costs were also assessed. The diesels show superior economic qualities, both in terms of investment criteria and high merit position. They are economically comparable with combined cycle gas turbines, but combined cycle plant is essentially large-scale, whereas diesels in 40 MW units sizes can provide small-scale, high-efficiency local generation. Slow-speed diesels represent a sound investment for electricity supply. Diesels in local power stations in southern England would increase supply security and diversity. They are compatible with a cautious investment approach and are appropriate for the new market conditions in electricity supply. (author)

  11. Conceptual model of management steadfast economic development production-economic systems

    OpenAIRE

    Prokhorova, V.

    2010-01-01

    The article is devoted developments of conceptual model of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems. Features are certain, the algorithm of impulse is offered and intercommunication of contours of management proof economic development of the industrialeconomy systems is investigational

  12. Practical Validation of Economic Efficiency Modelling Method for Multi-Boiler Heating System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksejs Jurenoks

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In up-to-date conditions information technology is frequently associated with the modelling process, using computer technology as well as information networks. Statistical modelling is one of the most widespread methods of research of economic systems. The selection of methods of modelling of the economic systems depends on a great number of conditions of the researched system. Modelling is frequently associated with the factor of uncertainty (or risk, who’s description goes outside the confines of the traditional statistical modelling, which, in its turn, complicates the modelling which, in its turn, complicates the modelling process. This article describes the modelling process of assessing the economic efficiency of a multi-boiler adaptive heating system in real-time systems which allows for dynamic change in the operation scenarios of system service installations while enhancing the economic efficiency of the system in consideration.

  13. Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

    2015-12-01

    Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation

  14. Technical and economic assessment of solar hybrid repowering. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1978-09-01

    Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) has performed a Technical and Economic Assessment of Solar Hybrid Repowering under funding by the Department of Energy (DOE), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Western Energy Supply and Transmission (WEST) Associates, and a number of southwestern utilities. Solar hybrid repowering involves placement of solar hardware adjacent to and connected to existing gas- and oil-fueled electric generation units to displace some of or all the fossil fuel normally used during daylight hours. The subject study assesses the technical economic viability of the solar hybrid repowering concept within the southwestern United States and the PNM system. This document is a final report on the study and its results. The study was divided into the six primary tasks to allow a systematic investigation of the concept: (1) market survey and cost/benefit analysis, (2) study unit selection, (3) conceptual design and cost estimates, (4) unit economic analysis, (5) program planning, future phases, and (6) program management. Reeves Station No. 2 at Albuquerque, New Mexico, was selected for repowering with a design goal of 50 percent (25 MWe). The solar system design is based on the 10 MW solar central receiver pilot plant preliminary design for Barstow, California. SAN--1608-4-2 contains the technical drawings. (WHK)

  15. Material flow-based economic assessment of landfill mining processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kieckhäfer, Karsten; Breitenstein, Anna; Spengler, Thomas S

    2017-02-01

    This paper provides an economic assessment of alternative processes for landfill mining compared to landfill aftercare with the goal of assisting landfill operators with the decision to choose between the two alternatives. A material flow-based assessment approach is developed and applied to a landfill in Germany. In addition to landfill aftercare, six alternative landfill mining processes are considered. These range from simple approaches where most of the material is incinerated or landfilled again to sophisticated technology combinations that allow for recovering highly differentiated products such as metals, plastics, glass, recycling sand, and gravel. For the alternatives, the net present value of all relevant cash flows associated with plant installation and operation, supply, recycling, and disposal of material flows, recovery of land and landfill airspace, as well as landfill closure and aftercare is computed with an extensive sensitivity analyses. The economic performance of landfill mining processes is found to be significantly influenced by the prices of thermal treatment (waste incineration as well as refuse-derived fuels incineration plant) and recovered land or airspace. The results indicate that the simple process alternatives have the highest economic potential, which contradicts the aim of recovering most of the resources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Is our economic model compatible with sustainable development?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2003-01-01

    The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson.......The paper concerns the contradictions between sustainability and the present economic growth model. The discussion relates to the work of Jan Otto Andersson....

  17. Environmental economic impact assessment in China: Problems and prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindhjem, Henrik; Hu Tao; Ma Zhong; Skjelvik, John Magne; Song Guojun; Vennemo, Haakon; Wu Jian; Zhang Shiqiu

    2007-01-01

    The use of economic valuation methods to assess environmental impacts of projects and policies has grown considerably in recent years. However, environmental valuation appears to have developed independently of regulations and practice of environmental impact assessment (EIA), despite its potential benefits to the EIA process. Environmental valuation may be useful in judging significance of impacts, determining mitigation level, comparing alternatives and generally enabling a more objective analysis of tradeoffs. In China, laws and regulations require the use of environmental valuation in EIA, but current practice lags far behind. This paper assesses the problems and prospects of introducing environmental valuation into the EIA process in China. We conduct four case studies of environmental economic impact assessment (EEIA), three of which are based on environmental impact statements of construction projects (a power plant, a wastewater treatment plant and a road construction project) and one for a regional pollution problem (wastewater irrigation). The paper demonstrates the potential usefulness of environmental valuation but also discusses several challenges to the introduction and wider use of EEIA, many of which are likely to be of relevance far beyond the Chinese context. The paper closes with suggesting some initial core elements of an EEIA guideline

  18. Static and dynamic models in economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safiullin, N. Z.; Safiullin, B. L.

    2018-05-01

    In this article, the authors consider the impact of information and advertising on consumer behavior and the process of producing differentiation formation. Advertising, television, radio, magazines and direct mail as major constraints of mass media may act as sources of information. Economic modernization is aimed at development of acceleration of the knowledge intensive industries, which contribute to Russia’s position in terms of the world economy; the recovering process of the Russian economic manufacturing base; development of import substitution industries and limited participation in international labor specialization.

  19. Modeling the Economic Behavior of Households within the Context of Development of Economic Thought

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanov Roman V.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the publication is to study formation of the household economic behavior modeling in the context of development of economic thought and methods of the economic-mathematical modeling. The study was carried out under the assumption that, when studying the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the economic behavior of households one must take into account not only the history of development of economic theory, but also the transformation of attitudes in other areas of human knowledge, in particular the paradigm shift in scientific thinking. It has been specified that the massive use of mathematical methods in economics is associated with formation of the marginal theory and at the same time – with the proliferation of the marginal analysis. At the present stage, the economic behavior of households is being analyzed in the terms of concepts such as neoclassicism, institutionalism and behaviorism. But by dividing the concepts of «individual» and «household», it can be argued that precisely the institutionalism in conjunction with synergistic approach provide the basis for elaboration of strategies for the economic behavior of households, ensuring their economic security.

  20. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  1. Economic modeling and energy policy planning. [technology transfer, market research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R. G.; Schwartz, A., Jr.; Lievano, R. J.; Stone, J. C.

    1974-01-01

    A structural economic model is presented for estimating the demand functions for natural gas and crude oil in industry and in steam electric power generation. Extensions of the model to other commodities are indicated.

  2. An economic assessment of U.S. MHTGR design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mears, L. Daniel

    1990-01-01

    GCRA's economic goal for the U.S. MHTGR design is for the equilibrium plants to have at least a 10% power cost advantage over comparably sized, state-of-the-art coal plants. In addition, the designers are challenged to limit the overall financial risk to be on par with such a coal plant. During the past year, cost estimates and economic assessments have been updated in the U.S. MHTGR Program. Further, a major study has been completed adapting the MHTGR to a water desalination/cogeneration application. These results will be presented along with a discussion of the key GCRA design requirements that limit the overall financial risk to the prospective owner/operators of future MHTGR plants. (author)

  3. Power station impacts: socio-economic impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glasson, John; Elson, Martin; Barrett, Brendan; Wee, D. Van der

    1987-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the local social and economic impacts of a proposed nuclear power station development at Hinkley Point in Somerset. The proposed development, Hinkley Point C, would be an addition to the existing Hinkley Point A Magnox station, commissioned in 1965, and the Hinkley Point B Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor (AGR) station, commissioned in 1976. It is hoped that the study will be of assistance to the CEGB, the Somerset County and District Councils and other agencies in their studies of the proposed development. In addition, the study seeks to apply and further develop the methodology and results from previous studies by the Power Station Impacts (PSI) team for predicting the social and economic effects of proposed power station developments on their localities. (author)

  4. An economic assessment of U.S. MHTGR design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mears, L Daniel [Gas-Cooled Reactor Associates, San Diego, CA (United States)

    1990-07-01

    GCRA's economic goal for the U.S. MHTGR design is for the equilibrium plants to have at least a 10% power cost advantage over comparably sized, state-of-the-art coal plants. In addition, the designers are challenged to limit the overall financial risk to be on par with such a coal plant. During the past year, cost estimates and economic assessments have been updated in the U.S. MHTGR Program. Further, a major study has been completed adapting the MHTGR to a water desalination/cogeneration application. These results will be presented along with a discussion of the key GCRA design requirements that limit the overall financial risk to the prospective owner/operators of future MHTGR plants. (author)

  5. Assessing the ecological and economic sustainability of energy crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanegraaf, M.C.; Biewinga, E.E.; Bijl, G. van der

    1998-01-01

    The production and use of biomass for energy has both positive and negative impacts on the environment. The environmental impacts of energy crops should be clarified before political choices concerning energy are made. An important aid to policy-making would be a systematic methodology to assess the environmental sustainability of energy crops. So far, most studies on the environmental aspects of energy crops deal mainly with the energy production of the crops and the possible consequences for CO 2 mitigation. The Dutch Centre for Agriculture and Environment (CLM) has developed a systematic methodology to assess the ecological and socio-economic sustainability of biomass crops. The method is best described as a multicriteria analysis of process chains and is very much related to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). Characteristics of our methodology are the use of: definition of functional units; analysis of the entire lifecycle; definition of yield levels and corresponding agricultural practices; analysis of both ecological and economic criteria; definition of reference systems; definition of procedures for normalisation and weighting. CLM has applied the method to assess the sustainability of ten potentially interesting energy crops in four European regions. The results are used to outline the perspectives for large scale production of biomass crops with regard to the medium and long term land availability in Europe. For the crops considered, net energy budget ranges from 85 GJ net avoided energy per ha for rape seed for fuel to 248 GJ net avoided fossil energy per ha for silage maize for electricity from gasification. The methodology of the tool and its results were discussed at the concerted action ''Environmental aspects of biomass production and routes for European energy supply'' (AIR3-94-2455), organised by CLM in 1996. Major conclusions of the research: multicriteria analyhsis of process lifecycles is at present the best available option to assess the ecological

  6. Public health and economic risk assessment of waterborne contaminants and pathogens in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juntunen, Janne; Meriläinen, Päivi; Simola, Antti

    2017-12-01

    This study shows that a variety of mathematical modeling techniques can be applied in a comprehensive assessment of the risks involved in drinking water production. In order to track the effects from water sources to the end consumers, we employed four models from different fields of study. First, two models of the physical environment, which track the movement of harmful substances from the sources to the water distribution. Second, a statistical quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to assess the public health risks of the consumption of such water. Finally, a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic effects of increased illnesses. In order to substantiate our analysis, we used an illustrative case of a recently built artificial recharge system in Southern Finland that provides water for a 300,000 inhabitant area. We examine the effects of various chemicals and microbes separately. Our economic calculations allow for direct effects on labor productivity due to absenteeism, increased health care expenditures and indirect effects for local businesses. We found that even a considerable risk has no notable threat to public health and thus barely measurable economic consequences. Any epidemic is likely to spread widely in the urban setting we examined, but is also going to be short-lived in both public health and economic terms. Our estimate for the ratio of total and direct effects is 1.4, which indicates the importance of general equilibrium effects. Furthermore, the total welfare loss is 2.4 times higher than the initial productivity loss. The major remaining uncertainty in the economic assessment is the indirect effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Economic management model of nuclear power plant research institute

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultz, O.

    1993-01-01

    Brief information about the development of economic management and processing of economic information in the Nuclear Power Plants Research Institute Trnava is given in the paper. The existing economic management model of the Institute impacts positively the fulfillment of economic indicators. When applying this model, activities of individual divisions are emphasized and presentation of the Institute as a global professional capacity is suppressed. With regards to this influence, it will be necessary to look for such system elements that will impact the integrity of the Institute in the future period positively

  8. Models of the Economic Growth and their Relevance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae MOROIANU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Until few years ago, the economic growth was something perfect normal, part of an era marked by the transformation speed. Normality itself has been transformed and we currently are influenced by other rules, unknown yet, which should answer the question: “How do we return to the economic growth?” The economic growth and the models aiming to solve this problem concern the economic history even since its beginnings. In this paper we would like to find out what is the relevance that the well-known macroeconomic models still have and which might be their applicability level in a framework created by a black swan event type.

  9. Mathematical model comparing of the multi-level economics systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brykalov, S. M.; Kryanev, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    The mathematical model (scheme) of a multi-level comparison of the economic system, characterized by the system of indices, is worked out. In the mathematical model of the multi-level comparison of the economic systems, the indicators of peer review and forecasting of the economic system under consideration can be used. The model can take into account the uncertainty in the estimated values of the parameters or expert estimations. The model uses the multi-criteria approach based on the Pareto solutions.

  10. Economic assessment factors relating to spent nuclear fuel reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper is in two parts. Part I discusses the factors to be applied in an economic assessment of reprocessing. It sets forth three basic cost components, namely capital costs, operating costs and the cost of capital utilization. It lists the various components of each cost area. Part II proposes a relationship between these respective cost areas, tabulates a range of costs and then develops unit costs for reprocessing operations. Finally, an addendum to the paper gives a more detailed breakdown of the capital costs of a reprocessing plant

  11. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, L.; Zhou, H.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports the economic assessment on an hybrid hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. A pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen on the tin bath in the float glass factory. Cost analysis and cash flow statements are presented, and financial value and rate of return are calculated. The project is shown to be technologically and financially feasible. 1 fig., 4 tabs., 4 refs

  12. Clinical and economic outcomes assessment in nuclear cardiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, L.J.; Miller, D.D.; Berman, D.S.; Hachamovitch, R.

    2000-01-01

    The future of nuclear medicine procedures, as understood within our current economic climate, depends upon its ability to provide relevant clinical information at similar or lower comparative costs. With an ever-increasing emphasis on cost containment, outcome assessment forms the basis of preserving the quality of patient care. Today, outcomes assessment encompasses a wide array of subjects including clinical, economic, and humanistic (i.e., quality of life) outcomes. For nuclear cardiology, evidence-based medicine would require a threshold level of evidence in order to justify the added cost of any test in a patient's work-up. This evidence would include large multicenter, observational series as well as randomized trial data in sufficiently large and diverse patient populations. The new movement in evidence-based medicine is also being applied to the introduction of new technologies, in particular when comparative modalities exist. In the past 5 years, it has seen a dramatic shift in the quality of outcomes data published in nuclear cardiology. This includes the use of statistically rigorous risk-adjusted techniques as well as large populations (i.e., >500 patients) representing multiple diverse medical care settings. This has been the direct result of the development of multiple outcomes databases that have now amassed thousands of patients worth of data. One of the benefits of examining outcomes in large patient datasets is the ability to assess individual endpoints (e.g., cardiac death) as compared with smaller datasets that often assess combined endpoints (e.g., death, myocardial infarction, or unstable angina). New technologies for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease have contributed to the rising costs of care. In the United States and in Europe, costs of care have risen dramatically, consuming an ever-increasing amount of available resources. The overuse of diagnostic angiography often leads to unnecessary revascularization that does not lead to

  13. Economic impacts of climate change. Flooding and salinity in scenarios, models and cases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jonkhoff, W.; Koops, O.; Van der Krogt, R.; Oude Essink, G.; Rietveld, E.

    2008-07-01

    In this report, climatic and economic scenarios are combined and future risks are calculated for the consequences of climate change, such as a rising sea level, flooding, extreme draughts and salinity. The calculation of these economic effects of climate change are based on climate scenarios of the KNMI (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute), TNO's RAEM model (Spatial General Economic Model), the high tide information system of the Dutch Ministry of Waterways and Public Works and the Space scanner of the Environmental Assessment Agency. Next to information on scenarios and models, this report also addresses damage calculations of flooding near Lopik and Ter Heide. The report ends with policy recommendations for adaptation policy. [mk] [nl

  14. Agent-based models in economics a toolkit

    CERN Document Server

    Fagiolo, Giorgio; Gallegati, Mauro; Richiardi, Matteo; Russo, Alberto

    2018-01-01

    In contrast to mainstream economics, complexity theory conceives the economy as a complex system of heterogeneous interacting agents characterised by limited information and bounded rationality. Agent Based Models (ABMs) are the analytical and computational tools developed by the proponents of this emerging methodology. Aimed at students and scholars of contemporary economics, this book includes a comprehensive toolkit for agent-based computational economics, now quickly becoming the new way to study evolving economic systems. Leading scholars in the field explain how ABMs can be applied fruitfully to many real-world economic examples and represent a great advancement over mainstream approaches. The essays discuss the methodological bases of agent-based approaches and demonstrate step-by-step how to build, simulate and analyse ABMs and how to validate their outputs empirically using the data. They also present a wide set of applications of these models to key economic topics, including the business cycle, lab...

  15. Fuel modelling and its economical competitiveness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marino, A.C.; Savino, E.J.

    1996-01-01

    Due to reasons of economical competitiveness, there is at present a strong need in the nuclear industry to improve fuel performance under more demanding operating conditions, such as those resulting from an extended burnup. This requires a good understanding of the properties of fuel rod materials and their in-service performance. As it can be easily foreseen, thermal, mechanical and microstructural irradiation effects are strongly interrelated while the fuel is at reactor operating conditions. (author). 7 refs., 16 figs

  16. Multi-basin, Multi-sector Drought Economic Impact Model in Python: Development and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Bearden, B.; Johnson, T. G.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most economically disastrous natural hazards, one whose impacts are exacerbated by the lack of abrupt onset and offset that define tornados and hurricanes. In the United States, about 30 billion dollars losses is caused by drought in 2012, resulting in widespread economic impacts for societies, industries, agriculture, and recreation. And in California, the drought cost statewide economic losses about 2.2 billion, with a total loss of 17,100 seasonal and part-time jobs. Driven by a variety of factors including climate change, population growth, increased water demands, alteration to land cover, drought occurs widely all over the world. Drought economic consequence assessment tool are greatly needed to allow decision makers and stakeholders to anticipate and manage effectively. In this study, current drought economic impact modeling methods were reviewed. Most of these models only deal with the impact in the agricultural sector with a focus on a single basin; few of these models analyze long term impact. However, drought impacts are rarely restricted to basin boundaries, and cascading economic impacts are likely to be significant. A holistic approach to multi-basin, multi-sector drought economic impact assessment is needed.In this work, we developed a new model for drought economic impact assessment, Drought Economic Impact Model in Python (PyDEM). This model classified all business establishments into thirteen categories based on NAICS, and using a continuous dynamic social accounting matrix approach, coupled with calculation of the indirect consequences for the local and regional economies and the various resilience. In addition, Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model was combined for analyzing drought caused soil erosion together with agriculture production, and then the long term impacts of drought were achieved. A visible output of this model was presented in GIS. In this presentation, Choctawhatchee-Pea-Yellow River Basins, Alabama

  17. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  18. HTGR Application Economic Model Users' Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A.M. Gandrik

    2012-01-01

    The High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) Application Economic Model was developed at the Idaho National Laboratory for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant Project. The HTGR Application Economic Model calculates either the required selling price of power and/or heat for a given internal rate of return (IRR) or the IRR for power and/or heat being sold at the market price. The user can generate these economic results for a range of reactor outlet temperatures; with and without power cycles, including either a Brayton or Rankine cycle; for the demonstration plant, first of a kind, or nth of a kind project phases; for up to 16 reactor modules; and for module ratings of 200, 350, or 600 MWt. This users manual contains the mathematical models and operating instructions for the HTGR Application Economic Model. Instructions, screenshots, and examples are provided to guide the user through the HTGR Application Economic Model. This model was designed for users who are familiar with the HTGR design and Excel and engineering economics. Modification of the HTGR Application Economic Model should only be performed by users familiar with the HTGR and its applications, Excel, and Visual Basic.

  19. Models of economic geography: dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of these models, especially when we allow firms to have different demand functions for intermediate goods. We estimated the model using a dataset on US states, and computed a number of counterfactuals....

  20. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

    2017-01-01

    While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

  1. A GIS tool for the economic assessment of renewable technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmmud, F.; Woods, J.; Watson, S.; Halliday, J.; Hossain, J.

    1997-01-01

    A Geographical Information System (GIS) has the potential to analyse a large area for the optimum selection and siting of renewable energy systems. This paper reports on a GIS based scheme for the economic assessment of a selected number of wind and photovoltaic systems in the state of Karnataka, in India. This involved the implementation of an appropriate GIS methodology. The preparation of the GIS database is often the most arduous task in GIS operations. Thus, a description of the GIS methodology and the preparation of the database for the analysis of a selection of wind and photovoltaic systems is given. This approach has enabled the identification of the high potential areas in terms of the levelised electricity costs. An overall assessment of the region for present and future scenarios is also given. (author)

  2. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  3. Applied economic model development algorithm for electronics company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhailov I.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to report about received experience in the field of creating the actual methods and algorithms that help to simplify development of applied decision support systems. It reports about an algorithm, which is a result of two years research and have more than one-year practical verification. In a case of testing electronic components, the time of the contract conclusion is crucial point to make the greatest managerial mistake. At this stage, it is difficult to achieve a realistic assessment of time-limit and of wage-fund for future work. The creation of estimating model is possible way to solve this problem. In the article is represented an algorithm for creation of those models. The algorithm is based on example of the analytical model development that serves for amount of work estimation. The paper lists the algorithm’s stages and explains their meanings with participants’ goals. The implementation of the algorithm have made possible twofold acceleration of these models development and fulfilment of management’s requirements. The resulting models have made a significant economic effect. A new set of tasks was identified to be further theoretical study.

  4. A framework to analyze emissions implications of manufacturing shifts in the industrial sector through integrating bottom-up energy models and economic input/output environmental life cycle assessment models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Future year emissions depend highly on economic, technological, societal and regulatory drivers. A scenario framework was adopted to analyze technology development pathways and changes in consumer preferences, and evaluate resulting emissions growth patterns while considering fut...

  5. Models of economic geography : dynamics, estimation and policy evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knaap, Thijs

    2004-01-01

    In this thesis we look at economic geography models from a number of angles. We started by placing the theory in a context of preceding theories, both earlier work on spatial economics and other children of the monopolistic competition ‘revolution.’ Next, we looked at the theoretical properties of

  6. Modeling ecological and economic systems with STELLA : Part III

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costanza, Robert; Voinov, Alexey

    2001-01-01

    This special issue contains a group of eight modeling studies covering a range of ecological and economic systems and problems. The models were all developed using Stella®, an icon-based software package specifically designed for dynamic systems modeling. Models included in the special issue were

  7. FISHRENT; Bio-economic simulation and optimisation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salz, P.; Buisman, F.C.; Soma, K.; Frost, H.; Accadia, P.; Prellezo, R.

    2011-01-01

    Key findings: The FISHRENT model is a major step forward in bio-economic model-ling, combining features that have not been fully integrated in earlier models: 1- Incorporation of any number of species (or stock) and/or fleets 2- Integration of simulation and optimisation over a period of 25 years 3-

  8. Economic assessment of single-walled carbon nanotube processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaacs, J. A.; Tanwani, A.; Healy, M. L.; Dahlben, L. J.

    2010-02-01

    The carbon nanotube market is steadily growing and projected to reach 1.9 billion by 2010. This study examines the economics of manufacturing single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT) using process-based cost models developed for arc, CVD, and HiPco processes. Using assumed input parameters, manufacturing costs are calculated for 1 g SWNT for arc, CVD, and HiPco, totaling 1,906, 1,706, and 485, respectively. For each SWNT process, the synthesis and filtration steps showed the highest costs, with direct labor as a primary cost driver. Reductions in production costs are calculated for increased working hours per day and for increased synthesis reaction yield (SRY) in each process. The process-based cost models offer a means for exploring opportunities for cost reductions, and provide a structured system for comparisons among alternative SWNT manufacturing processes. Further, the models can be used to comprehensively evaluate additional scenarios on the economics of environmental, health, and safety best manufacturing practices.

  9. Economic assessment of single-walled carbon nanotube processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaacs, J. A., E-mail: jaisaacs@coe.neu.ed [Northeastern University, NSF Center for High-rate Nanomanufacturing (United States); Tanwani, A. [Infojini Solutions Inc. (United States); Healy, M. L. [Babcock Power Inc. (United States); Dahlben, L. J. [Northeastern University, NSF Center for High-rate Nanomanufacturing (United States)

    2010-02-15

    The carbon nanotube market is steadily growing and projected to reach $1.9 billion by 2010. This study examines the economics of manufacturing single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNT) using process-based cost models developed for arc, CVD, and HiPco processes. Using assumed input parameters, manufacturing costs are calculated for 1 g SWNT for arc, CVD, and HiPco, totaling $1,906, $1,706, and $485, respectively. For each SWNT process, the synthesis and filtration steps showed the highest costs, with direct labor as a primary cost driver. Reductions in production costs are calculated for increased working hours per day and for increased synthesis reaction yield (SRY) in each process. The process-based cost models offer a means for exploring opportunities for cost reductions, and provide a structured system for comparisons among alternative SWNT manufacturing processes. Further, the models can be used to comprehensively evaluate additional scenarios on the economics of environmental, health, and safety best manufacturing practices.

  10. Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosalie J. Ingram

    1989-01-01

    Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

  11. Anticipating the uncertain: economic modeling and climate change policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, Svenn

    2012-11-01

    With this thesis I wish to contribute to the understanding of how uncertainty and the anticipation of future events by economic actors affect climate policies. The thesis consists of four papers. Two papers are analytical models which explicitly consider that emissions are caused by extracting scarce fossil fuels which in the future must be replaced by clean technologies. The other two are so called numerical integrated assessment models. Such models represent the world economy, the climate system and the interactions between those two quantitatively, complementing more abstract theoretical work. Should policy makers discriminate between subsidizing renewable energy sources such as wind or solar power, and technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS)? Focusing only on the dynamic supply of fossil fuels and hence Co{sub 2}, we find here that cheaper future renewables cause extraction to speed up, lower costs of CCS may delay it. CCS hence may dampen the dynamic inefficiency caused by the absence of comprehensive climate policies today. Does it matter whether uncertainty about future damage assessment is due to scientific complexities or stems from the political process? In paper two, I find that political and scientific uncertainties have opposing effects on the incentives to investment in renewables and the extraction of fossil fuels: The prospect of scientific learning about the climate system increases investment incentives and, ceteris paribus, slows extraction down; uncertainty about future political constellations does the opposite. The optimal carbon tax under scientific uncertainty equals expected marginal damages, whereas political uncertainty demands a tax below marginal damages that decreases over time. Does uncertainty about economic growth impact optimal climate policy today? Here we are the first to consistently analyze how uncertainty about future economic growth affects optimal emission reductions and the optimal social cost of carbon. We

  12. Quality assessment of published health economic analyses from South America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Márcio; Iskedjian, Michael; Einarson, Thomas R

    2006-05-01

    Health economic analyses have become important to healthcare systems worldwide. No studies have previously examined South America's contribution in this area. To survey the literature with the purpose of reviewing, quantifying, and assessing the quality of published South American health economic analyses. A search of MEDLINE (1990-December 2004), EMBASE (1990-December 2004), International Pharmaceutical Abstracts (1990-December 2004), Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (1982-December 2004), and Sistema de Informacion Esencial en Terapéutica y Salud (1980-December 2004) was completed using the key words cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), cost-utility analysis (CUA), cost-minimization analysis (CMA), and cost-benefit analysis (CBA); abbreviations CEA, CUA, CMA, and CBA; and all South American country names. Papers were categorized by type and country by 2 independent reviewers. Quality was assessed using a 12 item checklist, characterizing scores as 4 (good), 3 (acceptable), 2 (poor), 1 (unable to judge), and 0 (unacceptable). To be included in our investigation, studies needed to have simultaneously examined costs and outcomes. We retrieved 25 articles; one duplicate article was rejected, leaving 24 (CEA = 15, CBA = 6, CMA = 3; Brazil = 9, Argentina = 5, Colombia = 3, Chile = 2, Ecuador = 2, 1 each from Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela). Variability between raters was less than 0.5 point on overall scores (OS) and less than 1 point on all individual items. Mean OS was 2.6 (SD 1.0, range 1.4-3.8). CBAs scored highest (OS 2.8, SD 0.8), CEAs next (OS 2.7, SD 0.7), and CMAs lowest (OS 2.0, SD 0.5). When scored by type of question, definition of study aim scored highest (OS 3.0, SD 0.8), while ethical issues scored lowest (OS 1.5, SD 0.9). By country, Peru scored highest (mean OS 3.8) and Uruguay had the lowest scores (mean OS 2.2). A nonsignificant time trend was noted for OS (R2 = 0.12; p = 0.104). Quality scores of health economic analyses

  13. Audit risk assessment model

    OpenAIRE

    Jodelienė, Rita

    2010-01-01

    The recent changes of the global scale caused by the development of business and an excessive use of subjective decisions and estimates when drawing up financial statements have caused an increased pressure that may lead to fraudulent financial reporting. Audit firms are obligated to express an independent opinion on the truthfulness and fairness of the information presented in financial statements to enable the users to take informed economic decisions. Therefore, it is important to further ...

  14. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  15. Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkire, Blake C; Shrime, Mark G; Dare, Anna J; Vincent, Jeffrey R; Meara, John G

    2015-04-27

    The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives. We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches. During 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account

  16. A Hydro-Economic Model for Water Level Fluctuations: Combining Limnology with Economics for Sustainable Development of Hydropower

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands. PMID:25526619

  17. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Emanuel Hirsch

    Full Text Available Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity. Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  18. A hydro-economic model for water level fluctuations: combining limnology with economics for sustainable development of hydropower.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Philipp Emanuel; Schillinger, Sebastian; Weigt, Hannes; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    Water level fluctuations in lakes lead to shoreline displacement. The seasonality of flooding or beaching of the littoral area affects nutrient cycling, redox gradients in sediments, and life cycles of aquatic organisms. Despite the ecological importance of water level fluctuations, we still lack a method that assesses water levels in the context of hydropower operations. Water levels in reservoirs are influenced by the operator of a hydropower plant, who discharges water through the turbines or stores water in the reservoir, in a fashion that maximizes profit. This rationale governs the seasonal operation scheme and hence determines the water levels within the boundaries of the reservoir's water balance. For progress towards a sustainable development of hydropower, the benefits of this form of electricity generation have to be weighed against the possible detrimental effects of the anthropogenic water level fluctuations. We developed a hydro-economic model that combines an economic optimization function with hydrological estimators of the water balance of a reservoir. Applying this model allowed us to accurately predict water level fluctuations in a reservoir. The hydro-economic model also allowed for scenario calculation of how water levels change with climate change scenarios and with a change in operating scheme of the reservoir (increase in turbine capacity). Further model development will enable the consideration of a variety of additional parameters, such as water withdrawal for irrigation, drinking water supply, or altered energy policies. This advances our ability to sustainably manage water resources that must meet both economic and environmental demands.

  19. Efficiency Assessment of Economic International Cooperation in Development of Arctic Offshore Oil and Gas Resources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polina V. Beresneva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The research is focused on efficiency assessment of economic cooperation in development of Arctic offshore oil and gas resources. The author developed an economic model based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA. CBA is used in some countries (EU, USA, Australia as an analytic tool to make public policy decisions. CBA is based on the method of discounting cash flows associated with costs and benefits of public policy. It is assumed that all public goals are equally important inter alia, hence public bodies should opt for those initiatives that maximize public benefits for every dollar spent from the state budget. There are five stages of economic modeling: 1 the definition of public benefits and costs associated with the public initiative; 2 monetary valuation of costs and benefits; 3 the definition of discounting period and discounting rate; 4 the calculation of net present value of cash flows; 5 the comparison of initiatives' net present values. The model is built with a number of hypotheses assumed. It allows making evaluation of investments into the technology to decrease the cost of Arctic offshore oil and gas development. Moreover, the model has two scenarios describing a public policy to support technology development with international economic cooperation and without it. Under given hypotheses both scenarios return positive net present value of policies which proves that governmental initiative to support Arctic technology development is economically justified. Also the model sows that the scenario with international cooperation is more efficient from economic point of view. It is explained by two factors: the higher speed of technology transfer (due W international cooperation and the opportunity to use financial leverage (attracting the funds from foreign partners. The model allows closing the existing scientific gap between the theory of CBA method and its practical use in public decision making.

  20. Partial differential equation models in the socio-economic sciences

    KAUST Repository

    Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis; Markowich, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) have become an integral part of quantitative analysis in most branches of science and engineering, recently expanding also towards biomedicine and socio-economic sciences

  1. Bifurcations of a class of singular biological economic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xue; Zhang Qingling; Zhang Yue

    2009-01-01

    This paper studies systematically a prey-predator singular biological economic model with time delay. It shows that this model exhibits two bifurcation phenomena when the economic profit is zero. One is transcritical bifurcation which changes the stability of the system, and the other is singular induced bifurcation which indicates that zero economic profit brings impulse, i.e., rapid expansion of the population in biological explanation. On the other hand, if the economic profit is positive, at a critical value of bifurcation parameter, the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, i.e., the increase of delay destabilizes the system and bifurcates into small amplitude periodic solution. Finally, by using Matlab software, numerical simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the results obtained here. In addition, we study numerically that the system undergoes a saddle-node bifurcation when the bifurcation parameter goes through critical value of positive economic profit.

  2. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  3. "Economic microscope": The agent-based model set as an instrument in an economic system research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, D. B.; Zvereva, O. M.; Akenov, Serik

    2017-07-01

    To create a valid model of a social or economic system one must consider a lot of parameters, conditions and restrictions. Systems and, consequently, the corresponding models are proved to be very complicated. The problem of such system model engineering can't be solved only with mathematical methods usage. The decision could be found in computer simulation. Simulation does not reject mathematical methods, mathematical expressions could become the foundation for a computer model. In these materials the set of agent-based computer models is under discussion. All the set models simulate productive agents communications, but every model is geared towards the specific goal, and, thus, has its own algorithm and its own peculiarities. It is shown that computer simulation can discover new features of the agents' behavior that can not be obtained by analytical solvation of mathematical equations and thus plays the role of some kind of economic microscope.

  4. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  5. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  6. The methodology of energy policy-making in economical models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poursina, B.

    1998-08-01

    Scrutiny and careful study in energy is a subject that in human science has been investigated from different point of view. The expansion of this research, because of its importance and effect in different dimensions of human life, has also arrived in the field of political and economic sciences. Economics evaluates the energy phenomenon at the side of elements such as labor, capital and technology in the production functions of firms. The nature of these discussions is mainly from the viewpoint of micro analyses. Nevertheless, the variation and challenges concerning energy and environment during the recent decades and the economists` detailed investigations in its analysis and evaluation have led to the arrival of energy discussions in a special shape in macro planning and large economic models. The paper compares various energy models - EFDM, MEDEE, MIDAS and HERMES. This extent of planning and consequently modelling which lacks a background in the processes of economic researches, deals with analysis of energy and economics reacting effects. Modelling of energy-economy interaction and energy policy in modeling macroeconomics large models are new ideas in energy studies and economics. 7 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  7. Waste-to-methanol: Process and economics assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iaquaniello, Gaetano; Centi, Gabriele; Salladini, Annarita; Palo, Emma; Perathoner, Siglinda; Spadaccini, Luca

    2017-11-01

    The waste-to-methanol (WtM) process and related economics are assessed to evidence that WtM is a valuable solution both from economic, strategic and environmental perspectives. Bio-methanol from Refuse-derived-fuels (RdF) has an estimated cost of production of about 110€/t for a new WtM 300t/d plant. With respect to waste-to-energy (WtE) approach, this solution allows various advantages. In considering the average market cost of methanol and the premium as biofuel, the WtM approach results in a ROI (Return of Investment) of about 29%, e.g. a payback time of about 4years. In a hybrid scheme of integration with an existing methanol plant from natural gas, the cost of production becomes a profit even without considering the cap for bio-methanol production. The WtM process allows to produce methanol with about 40% and 30-35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions with respect to methanol production from fossil fuels and bio-resources, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Technology and economic assessment of lactic acid production and uses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Datta, R.; Tsai, S.P.

    1996-03-01

    Lactic acid has been an intermediate-volume specialty chemical (world production {approximately}50,000 tons/yr) used in a wide range of food-processing and industrial applications. Potentially, it can become a very large-volume, commodity-chemical intermediate produced from carbohydrates for feedstocks of biodegradable polymers, oxygenated chemicals, environmentally friendly ``green`` solvents, and other intermediates. In the past, efficient and economical technologies for the recovery and purification of lactic acid from fermentation broths and its conversion to the chemical or polymer intermediates had been the key technology impediments and main process cost centers. Development and deployment of novel separations technologies, such as electrodialysis with bipolar membranes, extractive and catalytic distillations, and chemical conversion, can enable low-cost production with continuous processes in large-scale operations. The emerging technologies can use environmentally sound lactic acid processes to produce environmentally useful products, with attractive process economics. These technology advances and recent product and process commercialization strategies are reviewed and assessed.

  9. Economic assessment of nuclear power plant operation with regard to effective use of nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svec, P.; Raninec, S.; Mizov, J.

    1988-01-01

    The essential preconditions are discussed for the better utilization of fuel in nuclear power plants. The MORNAP program which models the operation of the reactor is used for assessing the consequences of various fuel utilization strategies on technical and economic parameters of WWER-440 nuclear power plant operation. Some results of model calculation are given for the third and fourth units of the Jaslovske Bohunice nuclear power plant. The calculations have served for the economic assessment of the transition of part of the nuclear fuel from a three-campaign to a four-campaign cycle. This transition reduces fuel costs by 1.7%. The implementation of this strategy on a larger scale is expected to save 7 to 9% of fuel costs. (Z.M.). 2 tabs., 7 refs

  10. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  11. Economical-environmental assessment on technologies producing electric energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najafzadeh, K.

    2000-01-01

    Currently, the electric power industry is undergoing substantial regulatory and organizational change with respect to economical and environmental aspects. Under these circumstances, with utilization of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) concept, we consider the assessment of Technologies producing energy from financial and pollution viewpoint. AHP techniques is one of the efficient methods in analysis of complex and multi-criteria problems, which has plenty of applications. General pattern of this assessment has been introduced, and the main goal is determining of overall priority weights for each technology. With using this pattern, overall priority weights has been determined for thermal, combined cycle and Gas turbine plants. It has been cleared that relative priority of these plants will change, if relative priority of assessment criterions changes. For application of this approach, capital budgeting process and selection of some suitable technologies among the alternatives candidate for construction have been presented. In this process the objective is to maximize the sum of overall priority weights of technologies which have been identified from AHP. Constraints are about the construction budget and annual budget for emission allowances. This process is in the integer programming IP form an has been applied to three kind of power plants with reasonable assumptions

  12. Technical and economic assessment of energy conversion technologies for MSW

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingston, W.R.

    2002-07-01

    Thermal processes for municipal solid wastes (MSW) based on pyrolysis and/or gasification that have relevance to the emerging UK market are described in this report, and the results of the technical and economical assessment of these processes are presented. The Mitsui R21 Technology, the Thermoselect Process, the Nippon Steel Waste Melting Process, the Pyropleq Process, and the Compact Power Process are selected for detailed comparison on the basis of the overall technical concept, the energy balance and the requirements for consumables, environmental performance, and the technical and commercial status of the technology. Details are also given of a comparison of the novel thermal technologies with conventional mass burn incineration for MSW.

  13. Technical and economic assessment of energy conversion technologies for MSW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Livingston, W.R.

    2002-01-01

    Thermal processes for municipal solid wastes (MSW) based on pyrolysis and/or gasification that have relevance to the emerging UK market are described in this report, and the results of the technical and economical assessment of these processes are presented. The Mitsui R21 Technology, the Thermoselect Process, the Nippon Steel Waste Melting Process, the Pyropleq Process, and the Compact Power Process are selected for detailed comparison on the basis of the overall technical concept, the energy balance and the requirements for consumables, environmental performance, and the technical and commercial status of the technology. Details are also given of a comparison of the novel thermal technologies with conventional mass burn incineration for MSW

  14. Proceedings of the second international conference on environmental impact assessment of all economical activities. Vol. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    Proceedings of the conference consist of 3 volumes: Vol. 1 - 'Environmental Impact Assessment of all Economical Activities including Industry'; Vol. 2 - 'Air Pollution Control and Prevention'; Vol. 3 - Waste Management and Environmental Problems in Construction Industry'. Out of 32 papers contained in Vol. 1, 2 were inputted to INIS. They deal with models of radionuclide transport in food chains and the use of aerial monitoring in the study of environmental contamination. (Z.S.)

  15. Assessing future economic impacts of acidic deposition on the recreational fishery of eastern Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    A study was carried out to assess the socio-economic impacts and net economic value effects related to potential reduction in acidic deposition on the sports fishery of eastern Canada. Impacts and net economic effects that would have occurred from 1950 to 1985 if emission/deposition controls were in place are measured. Impacts and net economic effects that will occur from 1986 to 2021 if controls are put in place in the future are also measured. The study incorporated the latest data describing the relationship of acidic deposition to lake pH levels and ultimate impact on fish survival, and applies a spatial analysis system to model changes in sport fish availability with respect to pH changes and fish survival responses. It was found that if emission controls were put in place beginning in 1950 the Canadian economy would have accrued $4.3 billion in net economic value from 1950 to 1985 inclusive. The 1986 value of the historical stream of losses that occurred because controls were not put in place is $24 billion assuming a 10% rate of return. If controls were put in place in the future, net economic value to Canada due to increased angler activity would be $4.2 billion for the period 1986-2021. The value in 1986 would be $925 million. 9 figs., 34 tabs

  16. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Grames

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.

  17. Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

    OpenAIRE

    Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

  18. Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

    2009-03-01

    A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

  19. Hydro-economic modeling of water scarcity under global change: an application to the Gállego river basin (Spain)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graveline, N.; Majone, B.; van Duinen, Rianne; Ansink, E.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated approaches are needed to assess the effects of global changes on the future state of water resources at regional scales. We develop a hydro-economic model of the Gállego catchment, Spain, to assess how global change and policy options affect the catchment’s water scarcity and the economic

  20. Continuity of supply - Economic assessment and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preotescu, Dan; Albert, Hermina

    2004-01-01

    of risks that might occur, then in a subsequent stage to quantify them (economic assessment). The paper describes the most significant risk categories involved in the operation of grid companies that play on the electricity market, and a methodology to assess them is proposed. The importance and outcomes of the interconnection between the power system and the conditions to be monitored in the points where contracts between partners are carried out (electric power systems, countries) will be taken into account. (authors)

  1. Spot protein-creatinine ratio and spot albumin-creatinine ratio in the assessment of pre-eclampsia: a diagnostic accuracy study with decision-analytic model-based economic evaluation and acceptability analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waugh, Jason; Hooper, Richard; Lamb, Edmund; Robson, Stephen; Shennan, Andrew; Milne, Fiona; Price, Christopher; Thangaratinam, Shakila; Berdunov, Vladislav; Bingham, Jenn

    2017-10-01

    The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines highlighted the need for 'large, high-quality prospective studies comparing the various methods of measuring proteinuria in women with new-onset hypertensive disorders during pregnancy'. The primary objective was to evaluate quantitative assessments of spot protein-creatinine ratio (SPCR) and spot albumin-creatinine ratio (SACR) in predicting severe pre-eclampsia (PE) compared with 24-hour urine protein measurement. The secondary objectives were to investigate interlaboratory assay variation, to evaluate SPCR and SACR thresholds in predicting adverse maternal and fetal outcomes and to assess the cost-effectiveness of these models. This was a prospective diagnostic accuracy cohort study, with decision-analytic modelling and a cost-effectiveness analysis. The setting was 36 obstetric units in England, UK. Pregnant women (aged ≥ 16 years), who were at > 20 weeks' gestation with confirmed gestational hypertension and trace or more proteinuria on an automated dipstick urinalysis. Women provided a spot urine sample for protein analysis (the recruitment sample) and were asked to collect a 24-hour urine sample, which was stored for secondary analysis. A further spot sample of urine was taken immediately before delivery. Outcome data were collected from hospital records. There were four index tests on a spot sample of urine: (1) SPCR test (conducted at the local laboratory); (2) SPCR test [conducted at the central laboratory using the benzethonium chloride (BZC) assay]; (3) SPCR test [conducted at the central laboratory using the pyrogallol red (PGR) assay]; and (4) SACR test (conducted at the central laboratory using an automated chemistry analyser). The comparator tests on 24-hour urine collection were a central test using the BZC assay and a central test using the PGR assay. The primary reference standard was the NICE definition of severe PE. Secondary reference standards were a clinician

  2. STUDY REGARDING THE ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF THE ECONOMIC ENTITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Baltes

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The research presents both theoretical and practicalthe evolution of the financial stability assessed through the solvency indicators, the real economic growth rate and the GDP deflator in the manufacturing companies from Romania, through the Vector Autoregression Model (VAR. The sample consists in 36 companies belonging to the manufacturing industry in Romania, listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, on the first and second category. The study is conducted during the period 2007-2014 and demonstrated the fact that a change in the real economic growth causes a positive change in the GDP deflator. Not lastly, the change of the real economic growth also determines a positive change of the patrimonial solvency, and a change in the GDP deflator produces a reduction of the patrimonial solvency.

  3. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Besides the models of M. Keynes, R.F. Harrod, E. Domar, D. Romer, Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans etc., the R.M. Solow model is part of the category which characterizes the economic growth. The paper proposes the study of the R.M. Solow adjusted model of economic growth, while the adjustment consisting in the model adaptation to the Romanian economic characteristics. The article is the first one from a three paper series dedicated to the macroeconomic modelling theme, using the R.M. Solow model, such as: “Measurement of the economic growth and extensions of the R.M. Solow adjusted model” and “Evolution scenarios at the Romanian economy level using the R.M. Solow adjusted model”. The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  4. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  5. Economic MPC based on LPV model for thermostatically controlled loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zemtsov, Nikita; Hlava, Jaroslav; Frantsuzova, Galina

    2017-01-01

    Rapid increase of the renewable energy share in electricity production requires optimization and flexibility of the power consumption side. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) have a large potential for regulation service provision. Economic model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced...... control method which can be used to syncronize the power consumption with undispatchable renewable electricity production. Thermal behavior of TCLs can be described by linear models based on energy balance of the system. In some cases, parameters of the model may be time-varying. In this work, we present...... a modified economic MPC based on linear parameter-varying model. In particular, we provide an exact transformation from a standard economic MPC formulation to a linear program. We assume that the variables influencing the model parameters are known (predictable) for the prediction horizon of the controller...

  6. Confronting the Economic Model with the Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren

    2006-01-01

    methods. When this is not the case, but likelihood methods are applied nonetheless, the result is incorrect inference. In his paper we illustrate the problem of possible incorrect inference with a recent application of a DSGE model to US data (Ireland, 2004). Specifically, this paper discusses two broad...

  7. Economic Models and Algorithms for Distributed Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Neumann, Dirk; Altmann, Jorn; Rana, Omer F

    2009-01-01

    Distributed computing models for sharing resources such as Grids, Peer-to-Peer systems, or voluntary computing are becoming increasingly popular. This book intends to discover fresh avenues of research and amendments to existing technologies, aiming at the successful deployment of commercial distributed systems

  8. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING INNOVATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.V. Makarov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents one of the mathematical tools for modeling innovation processes. With the help of Kondratieff long waves can define innovation cycles. However, complexity of the innovation system implies a qualitative description. The article describes the problems of this area of research.

  9. Economic Modeling and Analysis of Educational Vouchers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epple, Dennis; Romano, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The analysis of educational vouchers has evolved from market-based analogies to models that incorporate distinctive features of the educational environment. These distinctive features include peer effects, scope for private school pricing and admissions based on student characteristics, the linkage of household residential and school choices in…

  10. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  11. Integrating uncertainties to the combined environmental and economic assessment of algal biorefineries: A Monte Carlo approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-López, Paula; Montazeri, Mahdokht; Feijoo, Gumersindo; Moreira, María Teresa; Eckelman, Matthew J

    2018-06-01

    The economic and environmental performance of microalgal processes has been widely analyzed in recent years. However, few studies propose an integrated process-based approach to evaluate economic and environmental indicators simultaneously. Biodiesel is usually the single product and the effect of environmental benefits of co-products obtained in the process is rarely discussed. In addition, there is wide variation of the results due to inherent variability of some parameters as well as different assumptions in the models and limited knowledge about the processes. In this study, two standardized models were combined to provide an integrated simulation tool allowing the simultaneous estimation of economic and environmental indicators from a unique set of input parameters. First, a harmonized scenario was assessed to validate the joint environmental and techno-economic model. The findings were consistent with previous assessments. In a second stage, a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the influence of variable and uncertain parameters in the model output, as well as the correlations between the different outputs. The simulation showed a high probability of achieving favorable environmental performance for the evaluated categories and a minimum selling price ranging from $11gal -1 to $106gal -1 . Greenhouse gas emissions and minimum selling price were found to have the strongest positive linear relationship, whereas eutrophication showed weak correlations with the other indicators (namely greenhouse gas emissions, cumulative energy demand and minimum selling price). Process parameters (especially biomass productivity and lipid content) were the main source of variation, whereas uncertainties linked to the characterization methods and economic parameters had limited effect on the results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Ecological-economical approach to assessment of environment state at the Semipalatinsk test site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chugunova, N.S.; Balykbaeva, S.Y.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents methods used for ecological-economical assessment of the environment condition at the former Semipalatinsk Test Site. It also presents methodology of calculating ecological and economical parameters for different options. Besides, the paper provides data describing assessment of ecological and economical damage caused by defense establishment activities at the Semipalatinsk Test Site. (author)

  13. An evaluation grid for the assessments of macro-economic impacts of energy transition. Working paper Nr 48

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouvrard, Jean-Francois; Scapecchi, Pascale

    2014-05-01

    This study aims at comparing the main available macro-economic models used to assess the consequences of policies for energy transition, and at determining their scope and limitations of validity. More precisely, the authors study the impact of two categories of policy instruments (those aimed at modifying prices and incentive ones) and the role of the adopted modelling of technical progress and of the macro-economic closure of the model. In a first part, they present various tools or models used to assess economic impacts of energy transition: technical-economic, macro-economic, general balance, and hybrid models. Then, after a presentation of some principles adopted to analyse these various models, the authors discuss price-based tools, tools based on demand support, the key role of technological progress, the impact of the macro-economic closure on the reached objective. They finally discuss the results obtained by applying an evaluation grid to energy transition scenarios. A set of recommendations is finally proposed for a better assessment of these impacts

  14. Economic modeling of surgical disease: a measure of public health interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlew, D Scott

    2013-07-01

    The measurement of the burden of disease and the interventions that address that burden can be done in various units. Reducing these measures to the common denominator of economic units (i.e., currency) enables comparison with other health entities, interventions, and even other fields. Economic assessment is complex, however, because of the multifactorial components of what constitutes health and what constitutes health interventions, as well as the coupling of those data to economic means. To perform economic modeling in a meaningful manner, it is necessary to: (1) define the health problem to be addressed; (2) define the intervention to be assessed; (3) define a measure of the effect of the health entity with and without the intervention (which includes defining the counterfactual); and (4) determine the appropriate method of converting the health effect to economics. This paper discusses technical aspects of how economic modeling can be done both of disease entities and of interventions. Two examples of economic modeling applied to surgical problems are then given.

  15. Economic Impact Assessment of Wind Power Integration: A Quasi-Public Goods Property Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiru Zhao

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The integration of wind power into power grid will bring some impacts on the multiple subjects of electric power system. Economic impacts of wind power integration on multiple subjects of China’s electric power system were quantitatively assessed from Quasi-public goods property perspective in this paper. Firstly, the Quasi-public goods property of transmission services provided by power grid corporations was elaborated. Secondly, the multiple subjects of China’s electric power system, which include electricity generation enterprises (EGEs, power grid corporations (PGCs, electricity consumers (ECs, and environment, were detailed analyzed. Thirdly, based on the OPF-based nodal price model and transmission service cost allocation model, the economic impact assessment model of wind power integration was built from Quasi-public goods property perspective. Then, the IEEE-24 bus system employed in this paper was introduced according to current status of China’s electric power system, and the modeling of wind turbine was also introduced. Finally, the simulation analysis was performed, and the economic impacts of wind power integration on EGEs, PGCs, ECs and Environment were calculated. The results indicate, from Quasi-public goods property perspective, the wind power integration will bring positive impacts on EGEs, PGCs and Environment, while negative impacts on ECs. The findings can provide references for power system managers, energy planners, and policy makers.

  16. A global water scarcity assessment under Shared Socio-economic Pathways – Part 1: Water use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Hanasaki

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available A novel global water scarcity assessment for the 21st century is presented in a two-part paper. In this first paper, water use scenarios are presented for the latest global hydrological models. The scenarios are compatible with the socio-economic scenarios of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs, which are a part of the latest set of scenarios on global change developed by the integrated assessment, the IAV (climate change impact, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment, and the climate modeling community. The SSPs depict five global situations based on substantially different socio-economic conditions during the 21st century. Water use scenarios were developed to reflect not only quantitative socio-economic factors, such as population and electricity production, but also key qualitative concepts such as the degree of technological change and overall environmental consciousness. Each scenario consists of five factors: irrigated area, crop intensity, irrigation efficiency, and withdrawal-based potential industrial and municipal water demands. The first three factors are used to estimate the potential irrigation water demand. All factors were developed using simple models based on a literature review and analysis of historical records. The factors are grid-based at a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° and cover the whole 21st century in five-year intervals. Each factor shows wide variation among the different global situations depicted: the irrigated area in 2085 varies between 2.7 × 106 and 4.5 × 106 km2, withdrawal-based potential industrial water demand between 246 and 1714 km3 yr−1, and municipal water between 573 and 1280 km3 yr−1. The water use scenarios can be used for global water scarcity assessments that identify the regions vulnerable to water scarcity and analyze the timing and magnitude of scarcity conditions.

  17. Generic modelling framework for economic analysis of battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard

    2011-01-01

    opportunities, a generic modelling framework is proposed to handle this task. This framework outlines a set of building blocks which are necessary for carrying out the economic analysis of various BS applications. Further, special focus is given on describing how to use the rainflow cycle counting algorithm...... for battery cycle life estimation, since the cycle life plays a central role in the economic analysis of BS. To illustrate the modelling framework, a case study using a Sodium Sulfur Battery (NAS) system with 5-minute regulating service is performed. The economic performances of two dispatch scenarios, a so......Deregulated electricity markets provide opportunities for Battery Systems (BS) to participate in energy arbitrage and ancillary services (regulation, operating reserves, contingency reserves, voltage regulation, power quality etc.). To evaluate the economic viability of BS with different business...

  18. Migration modelling in the New Economic Geography

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho Pérez, Maria del Carmen

    2010-01-01

    The benchmark of this paper is the Fujita and Thisse (2002) core-periphery model, which adds a R&D sector with skilled labor to create new varieties for the modern sector. The number of R&D firms increases not only with the number of existing patents and knowledge spillovers but also with the number of skilled workers who can migrate and choose theregion offering the better lifetime salary.The main objective of the present work is to analyse the long-term consequences of the choice of the mig...

  19. CRISP. Information Security Models and Their Economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, R.; Mellstrand, P.; Tornqvist, B.

    2005-03-01

    The deliverable D1.6 includes background material and specifications of a CRISP Framework on protection of information assets related to power net management and management of business operations related to energy services. During the project it was discovered by the CRISP consortium that the original description of WP 1.6 was not adequate for the project as such. The main insight was that the original emphasis on cost-benefit analysis of security protection measures was to early to address in the project. This issue is of course crucial in itself but requires new models of consequence analysis that still remains to be developed, especially for the new business models we are investigated in the CRISP project. The updated and approved version of the WP1.6 description, together with the also updated WP2.4 focus on Dependable ICT support of Power Grid Operations constitutes an integrated approach towards dependable and secure future utilities and their business processes. This document (D1.6) is a background to deliverable D2.4. Together they provide a dependability and security framework to the three CRISP experiments in WP3

  20. An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

    2010-03-01

    Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

  1. Economic impact assessment of invasive plant pests in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.

    2012-01-01

    According to the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) and the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS Agreement) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), phytosanitary measures should be economically justifiable. The economic impact assessments within a

  2. The assessing the economic stability of the agricultural organizations of the Kemerovo region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sekacheva Vera Mikhailovna

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The main aspects of the essence of economic stability analyzed in this article. The authors define the concept, the problems and the basic criteria for assessing the economic sustainability of the agricultural organizations of the Kemerovo region.

  3. Integrated assessment models of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E.A.; Fisher-Vanden, K.

    1997-01-01

    The authors review recent work in the integrated assessment modeling of global climate change. This field has grown rapidly since 1990. Integrated assessment models seek to combine knowledge from multiple disciplines in formal integrated representations; inform policy-making, structure knowledge, and prioritize key uncertainties; and advance knowledge of broad system linkages and feedbacks, particularly between socio-economic and bio-physical processes. They may combine simplified representations of the socio-economic determinants of greenhouse gas emissions, the atmosphere and oceans, impacts on human activities and ecosystems, and potential policies and responses. The authors summarize current projects, grouping them according to whether they emphasize the dynamics of emissions control and optimal policy-making, uncertainty, or spatial detail. They review the few significant insights that have been claimed from work to date and identify important challenges for integrated assessment modeling in its relationships to disciplinary knowledge and to broader assessment seeking to inform policy- and decision-making. 192 refs., 2 figs

  4. Economic Modeling as a Component of Academic Strategic Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, Joyce; Sothmann, Mark; Johnson, James

    2001-01-01

    Computer-based economic modeling was used to enable a school of allied health to define outcomes, identify associated costs, develop cost and revenue models, and create a financial planning system. As a strategic planning tool, it assisted realistic budgeting and improved efficiency and effectiveness. (Contains 18 references.) (SK)

  5. Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth : a multipopulation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boonen, T.J.; Li, H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In

  6. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  7. Criteria for comparing economic impact models of tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klijs, J.; Heijman, W.J.M.; Korteweg Maris, D.; Bryon, J.

    2012-01-01

    There are substantial differences between models of the economic impacts of tourism. Not only do the nature and precision of results vary, but data demands, complexity and underlying assumptions also differ. Often, it is not clear whether the models chosen are appropriate for the specific situation

  8. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  9. A model for the calculation of the off-site economic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallego, E.; Alonso, A.

    1988-01-01

    The off-site economic cost of nuclear reactor accidents will depend on the countermeasures adopted to reduce its radiological impact. The assessment of the direct costs of emergency countermeasures (evacuation, early relocation and food disposal) as well as those of long-term protective actions (food disposal, decontamination or interdiction) is the objective of a model under development, with the sponsorship of the CEC Radiation Protection Programme, called MECA (Model for assessing the Economic Consequences of Accidents). The meteorological and socio-economical peculiarities of each site studied will be taken into account, by means of a flexible meteorological sampling scheme, which considers the geographical distribution of population and economic centers, and a data-base, compatible with the existing European grid, that contains the population distribution and the economic characteristics of the environs of the site to be studied with more detail near the reactor. The paper summarizes the particular models which will be included in MECA and shows the importance of site-specific adaptable modelling for economic risk evaluation

  10. Techno-Economic Assessment of Four CO2 Storage Sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gruson J.-F.

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS should be a key technology in order to achieve a decline in the CO2 emissions intensity of the power sector and other intensive industry, but this potential deployment could be restricted by cost issues as the International Energy Agency (IEA in their last projections (World Energy Outlook 2013 has considered only around 1% of global fossil fuel-fired power plants could be equipped with CCS by 2035. The SiteChar project funded by 7th Framework Programme of European Commission gives the opportunity to evaluate the most influential parameters of techno-economic evaluations of four feasible European projects for CO2 geological storage located onshore and offshore and related to aquifer storage or oil and gas reservoirs, at different stages of characterization. Four potential CO2 storage sites have been assessed in terms of storage costs per tonne of CO2 permanently stored (equivalent cost based. They are located offshore UK, onshore Denmark, offshore Norway and offshore Italy. The four SiteChar techno-economic evaluations confirm it is not possible to derive any meaningful average cost for a CO2 storage site. The results demonstrate that the structure of costs for a project is heterogeneous and the storage cost is consequently site dependent. The strategy of the site development is fundamental, the technical choices such as the timing, rate and duration of injection are also important. The way monitoring is managed, using observation wells and logging has a strong impact on the estimated monitoring costs. Options to lower monitoring costs, such as permanent surveys, exist and should be further investigated. Table 1 below summarizes the cost range in Euro per tonne (Discount Rate (DR at 8% for the different sites, which illustrates the various orders of magnitude due to the specificities of each site. These figures have how to be considered with care. In particular the Italian and Norwegian sites present very specific

  11. Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Ulas; Brandt, Jørgen; Geels, Camilla; Mantzius Hansen, Kaj; Heile Christensen, Jesper; Skou Andersen, Mikael; Solazzo, Efisio; Kioutsioukis, Ioannis; Alyuz, Ummugulsum; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baro, Rocio; Bellasio, Roberto; Bianconi, Roberto; Bieser, Johannes; Colette, Augustin; Curci, Gabriele; Farrow, Aidan; Flemming, Johannes; Fraser, Andrea; Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Kitwiroon, Nutthida; Liang, Ciao-Kai; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Pirovano, Guido; Pozzoli, Luca; Prank, Marje; Rose, Rebecca; Sokhi, Ranjeet; Tuccella, Paolo; Unal, Alper; Garcia Vivanco, Marta; West, Jason; Yarwood, Greg; Hogrefe, Christian; Galmarini, Stefano

    2018-04-01

    The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ˜ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ˜ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the

  12. Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Im

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3. The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2. Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry–transport models (CTMs to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models and the United States (3 models. In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by  ∼  11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of  ∼  1000 premature

  13. Ecosystem Model Skill Assessment. Yes We Can!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Erik; Fay, Gavin; Gaichas, Sarah; Gamble, Robert; Lucey, Sean; Link, Jason S

    2016-01-01

    to any type of predictive model, and should be considered for use in fields outside ecology (e.g. economics, climate change, and risk assessment).

  14. The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

  15. macro-economic assessment of energy visions 2030-2050 by the ADEME - Technical document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callonnec, G.; Landa, G.; Maillet, P.; Reynes, F.

    2013-10-01

    After a brief presentation of the energy transition scenario designed by the ADEME and which is based on principles of efficiency and sobriety, and on a largely de-carbonated energy supply, this report presents the ThreeME model (ThreeME stands for macro-economic multi-sector model of assessment of energy and environment policies). It is a neo-Keynesian model which integrates a dynamic interaction between supply and demand. The application of this model to energy transition is discusses as well as the model calibration. Results are then discussed (reference scenario, modelling of the ADEME scenario) and expansionary effects are outlined in terms of household purchasing power, investment, employment, reduction of trade balance deficit, induced effects on GDP, shadow value of carbon, and public finances

  16. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  17. Techno-economic assessment of novel vanadium redox flow batteries with large-area cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minke, Christine; Kunz, Ulrich; Turek, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    The vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) is a promising electrochemical storage system for stationary megawatt-class applications. The currently limited cell area determined by the bipolar plate (BPP) could be enlarged significantly with a novel extruded large-area plate. For the first time a techno-economic assessment of VRFB in a power range of 1 MW-20 MW and energy capacities of up to 160 MWh is presented on the basis of the production cost model of large-area BPP. The economic model is based on the configuration of a 250 kW stack and the overall system including stacks, power electronics, electrolyte and auxiliaries. Final results include a simple function for the calculation of system costs within the above described scope. In addition, the impact of cost reduction potentials for key components (membrane, electrode, BPP, vanadium electrolyte) on stack and system costs is quantified and validated.

  18. Economic assessment of advanced flue gas desulfurization processes. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bierman, G. R.; May, E. H.; Mirabelli, R. E.; Pow, C. N.; Scardino, C.; Wan, E. I.

    1981-09-01

    This report presents the results of a project sponsored by the Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC). The purpose of the study was to perform an economic and market assessment of advanced flue gas desulfurization (FGD) processes for application to coal-fired electric utility plants. The time period considered in the study is 1981 through 1990, and costs are reported in 1980 dollars. The task was divided into the following four subtasks: (1) determine the factors affecting FGD cost evaluations; (2) select FGD processes to be cost-analyzed; (3) define the future electric utility FGD system market; and (4) perform cost analyses for the selected FGD processes. The study was initiated in September 1979, and separate reports were prepared for the first two subtasks. The results of the latter two subtasks appear only in this final reprot, since the end-date of those subtasks coincided with the end-date of the overall task. The Subtask 1 report, Criteria and Methods for Performing FGD Cost Evaluations, was completed in October 1980. A slightly modified and condensed version of that report appears as appendix B to this report. The Subtask 2 report, FGD Candidate Process Selection, was completed in January 1981, and the principal outputs of that subtask appear in Appendices C and D to this report.

  19. The economic efficiency of conservation measures for amphibians in organic farming--results from bio-economic modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Johannes; Sattler, Claudia; Helmecke, Angela; Zander, Peter; Uthes, Sandra; Bachinger, Johann; Stein-Bachinger, Karin

    2013-01-15

    This paper presents a whole farm bio-economic modelling approach for the assessment and optimisation of amphibian conservation conditions applied at the example of a large scale organic farm in North-Eastern Germany. The assessment focuses mainly on the habitat quality as affected by conservation measures such as through specific adapted crop production activities (CPA) and in-field buffer strips for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea), considering also interrelations with other amphibian species (i.e. common spadefoot toad (Pelobates fuscus), fire-bellied toad (Bombina bombina)). The aim of the approach is to understand, analyse and optimize the relationships between the ecological and economic performance of an organic farming system, based on the expectation that amphibians are differently impacted by different CPAs. The modelling system consists of a set of different sub-models that generate a farm model on the basis of environmentally evaluated CPAs. A crop-rotation sub-model provides a set of agronomically sustainable crop rotations that ensures overall sufficient nitrogen supply and controls weed, pest and disease infestations. An economic sub-model calculates the gross margins for each possible CPA including costs of inputs such as labour and machinery. The conservation effects of the CPAs are assessed with an ecological sub-model evaluates the potential negative or positive effect that each work step of a CPA has on amphibians. A mathematical programming sub-model calculates the optimal farm organization taking into account the limited factors of the farm (e.g. labour, land) as well as ecological improvements. In sequential model runs, the habitat quality is to be improved by the model, while the highest possible gross margin is still to be achieved. The results indicate that the model can be used to show the scope of action that a farmer has to improve habitat quality by reducing damage to amphibian population on its land during agricultural activities

  20. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

  1. How does economic theory explain the Hubbert peak oil model?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reynes, F.; Okullo, S.; Hofkes, M.

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide an economic foundation for bell shaped oil extraction trajectories, consistent with Hubbert's peak oil model. There are several reasons why it is important to get insight into the economic foundations of peak oil. As production decisions are expected to depend on economic factors, a better comprehension of the economic foundations of oil extraction behaviour is fundamental to predict production and price over the coming years. The investigation made in this paper helps us to get a better understanding of the different mechanisms that may be at work in the case of OPEC and non-OPEC producers. We show that profitability is the main driver behind production plans. Changes in profitability due to divergent trajectories between costs and oil price may give rise to a Hubbert production curve. For this result we do not need to introduce a demand or an exploration effect as is generally assumed in the literature.

  2. A conceptual framework for a long-term economic model for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, Balázs; Setyawan, Juliana; Coghill, David; Soroncz-Szabó, Tamás; Kaló, Zoltán; Doshi, Jalpa A

    2017-06-01

    Models incorporating long-term outcomes (LTOs) are not available to assess the health economic impact of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Develop a conceptual modelling framework capable of assessing long-term economic impact of ADHD therapies. Literature was reviewed; a conceptual structure for the long-term model was outlined with attention to disease characteristics and potential impact of treatment strategies. The proposed model has four layers: i) multi-state short-term framework to differentiate between ADHD treatments; ii) multiple states being merged into three core health states associated with LTOs; iii) series of sub-models in which particular LTOs are depicted; iv) outcomes collected to be either used directly for economic analyses or translated into other relevant measures. This conceptual model provides a framework to assess relationships between short- and long-term outcomes of the disease and its treatment, and to estimate the economic impact of ADHD treatments throughout the course of the disease.

  3. Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Safarzynska, K.E.; Brouwer, R.; Hofkes, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static

  4. MODEL EVALUATION OF THE SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC CLUSTERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Чингис Дашидалаевич Дашицыренов

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of evaluation of effectiveness of spatial development of a region. Main approaches and criteria to assess effectiveness of socio-economic development of a region based on use of regional economic cluster are identified.The author believes that clusterization allows to eliminate or localize mentioned above restrictions which are characteristic of specific activity of entities. Effect in this case can be measured by increase in productivity obtained from cluster’s resources use  in regard to specific form of enterprises’ existence.The article also focused on definition of idea of synergic effect and the model of effectiveness of clusters. Cluster integration’s essence is considered – it is pointed out that a new structure is formed, which has emergent characteristics.Thus, main approach to spatial socio-economic development of a region proposed by the author is diversification of organizational and economic forms into regional economic clusters.Proposed by the author model allows to assess effectiveness of clusterization for spatial socio-economic development of any region. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-10-14

  5. User Guide for the International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keyser, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, Francisco [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Uriarte, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cox, Sadie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The International Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (I-JEDI) model is a freely available economic model that estimates gross economic impacts from wind, solar, and geothermal energy projects for several different countries. Building on the original JEDI model, which was developed for the United States, I-JEDI was developed under the USAID Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) program to support countries in assessing economic impacts of LEDS actions in the energy sector. I-JEDI estimates economic impacts by characterizing the construction and operation of energy projects in terms of expenditures and the portion of these expenditures made within the country of analysis. These data are then used in a country-specific input-output (I-O) model to estimate employment, earnings, gross domestic product (GDP), and gross output impacts. Total economic impacts are presented as well as impacts by industry. This user guide presents general information about how to use I-JEDI and interpret results as well as detailed information about methodology and model limitations.

  6. System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivona Milić Beran

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

  7. ONTOLOGICAL MODEL OF STRATEGIC ECONOMIC SECURITY OF ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Zaporozhtseva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Article explains the necessity the application of the ontological approach to modeling the strategic economic security in the formalization of the basic categories of domain company recognized its benefits. Among the advantages of the model distinguishes its versatility and ability to describe various aspects of strategic security - the system strategies and goals of the organization and business processes; possibility of its use at different levels of detail - from the top-level description of the basic categories of management, to design-level analytic applications; as well as the adaptability of the model, with depth on particular aspects determined by practical necessity and not regulated methodology. The model integrates various aspects of the concept of enterprise architecture and organizes conceptual apparatus. Ontological model easy to understand and adjust as business architects and specialists in designing systems of economic security and offers many categories of verbal representation of the domain of the enterprise. Proved the feasibility of using process-functional approach in providing strategic economic security, according to which the components of such a security company proposed as business processes, finance, staff and contractors. The article presents the author's ontological model of strategic economic security, including endangered sites, the presence of factors that threaten the security of the object and the subject of providing security. Further, it is proved that in the subjects of security impact on the object using the tools, measures and activities within the strategy formed the mechanism is implemented managerial decisions to strengthen the strategic economic security. The process of diagnosis, detection, identification of threats of economic security, and the development of enterprise development strategies, taking into account its level of economic security must be under the constant supervision of the process of

  8. Methods of international health technology assessment agencies for economic evaluations--a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Tim; Jacobs, Esther; Morfeld, Jana-Carina; Pieper, Dawid

    2013-09-30

    The number of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) agencies increases. One component of HTAs are economic aspects. To incorporate economic aspects commonly economic evaluations are performed. A convergence of recommendations for methods of health economic evaluations between international HTA agencies would facilitate the adaption of results to different settings and avoid unnecessary expense. A first step in this direction is a detailed analysis of existing similarities and differences in recommendations to identify potential for harmonization. The objective is to provide an overview and comparison of the methodological recommendations of international HTA agencies for economic evaluations. The webpages of 127 international HTA agencies were searched for guidelines containing recommendations on methods for the preparation of economic evaluations. Additionally, the HTA agencies were requested information on methods for economic evaluations. Recommendations of the included guidelines were extracted in standardized tables according to 13 methodological aspects. All process steps were performed independently by two reviewers. Finally 25 publications of 14 HTA agencies were included in the analysis. Methods for economic evaluations vary widely. The greatest accordance could be found for the type of analysis and comparator. Cost-utility-analyses or cost-effectiveness-analyses are recommended. The comparator should continuously be usual care. Again the greatest differences were shown in the recommendations on the measurement/sources of effects, discounting and in the analysis of sensitivity. The main difference regarding effects is the focus either on efficacy or effectiveness. Recommended discounting rates range from 1.5%-5% for effects and 3%-5% for costs whereby it is mostly recommended to use the same rate for costs and effects. With respect to the analysis of sensitivity the main difference is that oftentimes the probabilistic or deterministic approach is recommended

  9. Integrating System Dynamic and Fuzzy Logic for Economic Assessment of BOT Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farnad Nasirzadeh

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The selection of the most appropriate project for the investment is one of the most important decisions that should be made by the private investors. This problem is of vital importance in BOT projects, where the total investment as well as the investor's profit should be recovered by the project's income. There are several approaches proposed by the researchers to determine the best economical project in comparison to other projects. The previous researches, however, faced with some major defects. As an example, the effects of various factors affecting the project evaluation process as well as the existing risks and uncertainties are not taken into account. In this research, economic assessment of BOT projects is performed by integrating system dynamic simulation approach and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first the project's NPV is modeled considering all the influencing factors qualitatively. The relationships that exist between different factors are then determined and the quantitative model is built. Using the developed model, the value of NPV is simulated considering the effects of all the influencing factors and the existing uncertainties. Finally, the value of project's NPV is determined as a triangular fuzzy number. Finally, the best alternative project is selected by comparing the simulated values of NPV. To evaluate the capabilities and performance of the proposed model, the project economical evaluation is performed for two highway projects and the best project is selected.

  10. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  11. A comparative assessment of the economic benefits from shale gas ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is an attempt to inform the policy debate by highlighting both the potential economic benefits and environmental costs. To date, the Econometrix report (published in 2012) provides the only estimate of the economic impacts that may emanate from developing the Karoo's shale gas. The report uses a Keynesian ...

  12. Environmental Impact Assessment for Socio-Economic Analysis of Chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Calow, Peter; Biddinger, G; Hennes, C

    This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH.......This report describes the requirements for, and illustrates the application of, a methodology for a socio-economic analysis (SEA) especially as it might be adopted in the framework of REACH....

  13. Assessing the Economic and Environmental Prospects of Stand-By ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents an economic analysis of two stand-by power supply options for a typical Nigerian household namely diesel generator plant and solar powered systems. The analysis reveals that solar systems are the most economically viable. The environmental benefits associated with substituting diesel powered ...

  14. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  15. Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonen, Tim J; Li, Hong

    2017-10-01

    Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.

  16. An object-oriented approach to energy-economic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wise, M.A.; Fox, J.A.; Sands, R.D.

    1993-12-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss the experiences in creating an object-oriented economic model of the U.S. energy and agriculture markets. After a discussion of some central concepts, they provide an overview of the model, focusing on the methodology of designing an object-oriented class hierarchy specification based on standard microeconomic production functions. The evolution of the model from the class definition stage to programming it in C++, a standard object-oriented programming language, will be detailed. The authors then discuss the main differences between writing the object-oriented program versus a procedure-oriented program of the same model. Finally, they conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the object-oriented approach based on the experience in building energy-economic models with procedure-oriented approaches and languages.

  17. Assessing the state-level consequences of global warming: Socio-economic and energy demand impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, B.M. Gailmard, S.; Marsh, D.; Septoff, A.

    1996-01-01

    The large body of research on climate change has begun to recognize a significant deficiency: the lack of analysis of the impact of climate change at a spatial level consistent with the anticipated occurrence of climate change. Climate change is likely to vary by region, while impact analysis has focused on much larger political units. Clearly, adaptation/mitigation strategies must be developed at a level consistent with political and policy-making processes. This paper specifically addresses this deficiency by identifying the potential socio-economic and energy demand consequences of climate change for subnational regions. This is accomplished via the development and application of a regional simultaneous equation, econometric simulation model that focuses on five states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin) in the Great Lakes region of the US. This paper presents a process for obtaining state-specific assessments of the consequences of climate change for the socio-economic system. As such, it provides an indication of which economic sectors are most sensitive to climate change for a specific state (Indiana), a set of initial mitigation/adaptation strategies for this state, and the results of testing these strategies in the policy analysis framework enabled by the model. In addition, the research demonstrates an effective methodology for assessing impacts and policy implications of climate change at a level consistent with policy making authority

  18. An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

  19. Sustainable economic production quantity models for inventory systems with shortage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Soleymanfar, Vahid Reza; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    optimal values of inventory system variables, we solve four independent profit maximization problems for four different situations. These proposed models include a basic model in which shortages are not allowed, and when shortages are allowed, the lost sale, full backordering and partial backordering...... (EPQ). The theoretical sustainable EOQ and EPQ models are basic models that ignore many real-life conditions such as the possibility of stock-out in inventory systems. In this paper, we develop four new sustainable economic production quantity models that consider different shortage situations. To find...

  20. Assessing the economic wind power potential in Austria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gass, Viktoria; Schmidt, Johannes; Strauss, Franziska; Schmid, Erwin

    2013-01-01

    In the European Union, electricity production from wind energy is projected to increase by approximately 16% until 2020. The Austrian energy plan aims at increasing the currently installed wind power capacity from approximately 1 GW to 3 GW until 2020 including an additional capacity of 700 MW until 2015. The aim of this analysis is to assess economically viable wind turbine sites under current feed-in tariffs considering constraints imposed by infrastructure, the natural environment and ecological preservation zones in Austria. We analyze whether the policy target of installing an additional wind power capacity of 700 MW until 2015 is attainable under current legislation and developed a GIS based decision system for wind turbine site selection.Results show that the current feed-in tariff of 9.7 ct kW h −1 may trigger an additional installation of 3544 MW. The current feed-in tariff can therefore be considered too high as wind power deployment would exceed the target by far. Our results indicate that the targets may be attained more cost-effectively by applying a lower feed-in tariff of 9.1 ct kW h −1 . Thus, windfall profits at favorable sites and deadweight losses of policy intervention can be minimized while still guaranteeing the deployment of additional wind power capacities. - Highlight: ► Wind supply curves with high spatial resolution for whole Austria are derived. ► Current feed-in tariff higher than necessary to attain targets. ► Previous feed-in tariffs were too low to achieve targets. ► Current support scheme leads to high social welfare losses. ► Policy makers face high information asymmetry when setting feed-in tariffs.

  1. Economic impact assessment and operational decision making in emission and transmission constrained electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nanduri, Vishnu; Kazemzadeh, Narges

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We develop a bilevel game-theoretic model for allowance and electricity markets. ► We solve the model using a reinforcement learning algorithm. ► Model accounts for transmission constraints, cap-and-trade constraints. ► Study demonstrated on 9-bus electric power network. ► Obtain insights about supply shares, impact of transmission constraints, and cost pass through. -- Abstract: Carbon constrained electricity markets are a reality in 10 northeastern states and California in the US, as well as the European Union. Close to a Billion US Dollars have been spent by entities (mainly generators) in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in procuring CO 2 allowances to meet binding emissions restrictions. In the near future, there are expected to be significant impacts due to the cap-and-trade program, especially when the cap stringency increases. In this research we develop a bilevel, complete-information, matrix game-theoretic model to assess the economic impact and make operational decisions in carbon-constrained restructured electricity markets. Our model is solved using a reinforcement learning approach, which takes into account the learning and adaptive nature of market participants. Our model also accounts for all the power systems constraints via a DC-OPF problem. We demonstrate the working of the model and compute various economic impact indicators such as supply shares, cost pass-through, social welfare, profits, allowance prices, and electricity prices. Results from a 9-bus power network are presented.

  2. Economic analysis of Marine Protected Areas: Bioeconomic Modeling and Economic Valuation Approaches

    OpenAIRE

    Bui, Bich Xuan

    2017-01-01

    The papers 2 and 3 of this thesis are not available in Munin. Paper 2: Xuan, B. B., Sandorf, E. D., Aanesen, M.: “Informing Management Strategies for a Reserve: Results from a Discrete Choice Experiment Survey”. (Manuscript). Paper 3: Xuan, B. B.: “Extractive and Non-extractive Values of a Marine Protected Area: A Bio-economic Model Application". (Manuscript). Marine protected areas (MPAs) are often established for conservation objectives. Benefits provided by MPAs exceed pure biod...

  3. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  4. Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  5. Models of Russia's Participation in Regional Economic Integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darya I. Ushkalova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses models and mechanisms of Russia's participation in integration processes in Post-Soviet space in recent years. The article examines the model of integration of Customs Union Common Economic Space Eurasian Economic Union and particular mechanisms of its realization. It also examines key challenges to further development of integration in the frameworks of Eurasian Economic Union including exhausting of short-term and medium-term integration effects against a background of low level of economic cooperation and the lack of effective mechanism of interest coordination and decisionmaking similar to qualified majority. It concludes that deterioration of mutual trade dynamics in Customs Union is determined by fundamental factors, first of all, exhausting of medium-term integration effects which lead to extension of mutual trade immediately after Customs Union creation but do not change its qualitative characteristics in long-term outlook. The author shows an absence of significant long-term integration effects which were based on increase of domestic market capacity due to a modification of economic structure. It is founded that appearance of such long-term integration effects is possible only in the context of coalescence of national economies at the microlevel based on development of system of communications between enterprises including intrasectoral industrial cooperation. The article also analyses results of realization of Russia's strategy of interaction with states beyond Eurasian Economic Union based on open regionalism concept. The paper presents recommendation on perfection of tools of integration in and outside Eurasian Economic Union. In particular, creation of system of decentralized organizations is proposed, for the implementation of specific cooperation projects in selected areas, taking into account the multiplier effect of such a "point-aimed" action/

  6. Real-Time Optimization for Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokoler, Leo Emil; Edlund, Kristian; Frison, Gianluca

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an efficient homogeneous and self-dual interior-point method for the linear programs arising in economic model predictive control. To exploit structure in the optimization problems, the algorithm employs a highly specialized Riccati iteration procedure. Simulations show...

  7. Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkooijen, W.J.H.

    1996-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

  8. Aligning the economic modeling of software reuse with reuse practices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmus, D.; Meijler, 27696

    In contrast to current practices where software reuse is applied recursively and reusable assets are tailored trough parameterization or specialization, existing reuse economic models assume that (i) the cost of reusing a software asset depends on its size and (ii) reusable assets are developed from

  9. A mean-field game economic growth model

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Lafleche, Laurent; Nurbekyan, Levon

    2016-01-01

    Here, we examine a mean-field game (MFG) that models the economic growth of a population of non-cooperative, rational agents. In this MFG, agents are described by two state variables - the capital and consumer goods they own. Each agent seeks

  10. Models of Economic Growth and Development in the Context of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The better-known models of economic growth such as the Lewis, Rostow,. Harrod-Domar ... produce highly educated populaces usually reap the benefits of such in terms of high per capita ..... The Russian revolution of 1917 led by Lenin proposed in theory a .... This was about government intervention into the economy to ...

  11. Student Migration to Online Education: An Economic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenhauer, Joseph G.

    2013-01-01

    The popularity of distance education has increasingly led universities to consider expanding their online offerings. Remarkably few financial models have been presented for online courses, however, and fewer still have investigated the economic consequences of the migration, or cross-over, of students from traditional classes within the…

  12. INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR MODELING ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boldeanu Dana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the most important financial and economic indicators at the level of some organizations from the same sector of activity, the selection of performance ratios and generating a particular analysis model help companies to move from the desire

  13. A survey on the geometry of production models in economics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina-Daniela Vîlcu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article we survey selected recent results on the geometry of production models, focussing on the main production functions that are usually analyzed in economics, namely homogeneous, homothetic, quasi-sum and quasi-product production functions.

  14. Using STELLA Simulation Models to Teach Natural Resource Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dissanayake, Sahan T. M.

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how graphical simulation models created using STELLA software can be used to present natural resource systems in an intuitive way in undergraduate natural resource economics classes based on his experiences at a leading research university, a state university, and a leading liberal arts college in the United…

  15. An Economic Model of Workplace Mobbing in Academe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faria, Joao Ricardo; Mixon, Franklin G., Jr.; Salter, Sean P.

    2012-01-01

    Workplace bullying or mobbing can be defined as the infliction of various forms of abuse (e.g., verbal, emotional, psychological) against a colleague or subordinate by one or more other members of a workplace. Even in the presence of academic tenure, workplace mobbing remains a prevalent issue in academe. This study develops an economic model that…

  16. R.M. Solow Adjusted Model of Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Gh. Rosca

    2007-05-01

    The analysis part of the model is based on the study of the equilibrium to the continuous case with some interpretations of the discreet one, by using the state diagram. The optimization problem at the economic level is also used; it is built up of a specified number of representative consumers and firms in order to reveal the interaction between these elements.

  17. Using Economic Impact Models as an Educational Tool in Community Economic Development Programming: Lessons from Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Martin; Deller, Steven C.

    2003-01-01

    Outlines an educational process designed to help provide communities with economic, social, and political information using community economic impact modeling. Describes the process of community meetings using economic impact, community demographics, and fiscal impact modules and the local preconditions that help make the process successful. (SK)

  18. Assessment of economically optimal water management and geospatial potential for large-scale water storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weerasinghe, Harshi; Schneider, Uwe A.

    2010-05-01

    Assessment of economically optimal water management and geospatial potential for large-scale water storage Weerasinghe, Harshi; Schneider, Uwe A Water is an essential but limited and vulnerable resource for all socio-economic development and for maintaining healthy ecosystems. Water scarcity accelerated due to population expansion, improved living standards, and rapid growth in economic activities, has profound environmental and social implications. These include severe environmental degradation, declining groundwater levels, and increasing problems of water conflicts. Water scarcity is predicted to be one of the key factors limiting development in the 21st century. Climate scientists have projected spatial and temporal changes in precipitation and changes in the probability of intense floods and droughts in the future. As scarcity of accessible and usable water increases, demand for efficient water management and adaptation strategies increases as well. Addressing water scarcity requires an intersectoral and multidisciplinary approach in managing water resources. This would in return safeguard the social welfare and the economical benefit to be at their optimal balance without compromising the sustainability of ecosystems. This paper presents a geographically explicit method to assess the potential for water storage with reservoirs and a dynamic model that identifies the dimensions and material requirements under an economically optimal water management plan. The methodology is applied to the Elbe and Nile river basins. Input data for geospatial analysis at watershed level are taken from global data repositories and include data on elevation, rainfall, soil texture, soil depth, drainage, land use and land cover; which are then downscaled to 1km spatial resolution. Runoff potential for different combinations of land use and hydraulic soil groups and for mean annual precipitation levels are derived by the SCS-CN method. Using the overlay and decision tree algorithms

  19. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnikov, N.B.; O'Neill, B.C.; Dalton, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    We describe and evaluate a new method of aggregating heterogeneous households that allows for the representation of changing demographic composition in a multi-sector economic growth model. The method is based on a utility and labor supply calibration that takes into account time variations in demographic characteristics of the population. We test the method using the Population-Environment-Technology (PET) model by comparing energy and emissions projections employing the aggregate representation of households to projections representing different household types explicitly. Results show that the difference between the two approaches in terms of total demand for energy and consumption goods is negligible for a wide range of model parameters. Our approach allows the effects of population aging, urbanization, and other forms of compositional change on energy demand and CO 2 emissions to be estimated and compared in a computationally manageable manner using a representative household under assumptions and functional forms that are standard in economic growth models.

  20. Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-06-01

    Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

  1. An assessment of once-through homogeneous thorium fuel economics for light water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joo, Hyung Kook; Noh, Jae Man; Yoo, Jae Woon

    2001-01-01

    The fuel economics of an once-through homogeneous thorium fuel concept for PWR was assessed by doing a detailed core analysis. In addition to this, the fuel economics assessment was also performed for two other ways enhancing the economic potential of thorium fuel; thorium utilization in the mixed core with uranium fuel assembly and Duplex thorium fuel concepts. As a results of fuel economics assessment, the thorium fuel cycle does not show any economic incentives in preference to uranium fuel cycle under the 18-months fuel cycle for PWR. However, the utilization of thorium is the mixed core with uranium fuel assembly and Duplex thorium fuel cycle and show superior fuel economics to uranium fuel under the longer fuel cycle scheme. The economic potential of once-through thorium fuel cycle is expected to be increased further by utilizing the Duplex thorium fuel in the mixed core with uranium fuel assembly

  2. Integrating economic and environmental indicators in the assessment of desertification risk: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvati, L. [Piazza F. Morosini 12, Rome (Italy); Zitti, M.; Ceccarelli, T. [Ufficio Centrale di Ecologia Agraria, Rome (Italy)

    2008-09-30

    Desertification is a complex phenomenon which reduces the soil fertility involving ecological and economic processes that characterize the environment at different geographic scales. The most widely accepted definition of desertification is the one given by the United Nations Convention. It defines desertification as 'land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human actities'.Desertification involves many countries featuring different ecological, economic, and social conditions. In Mediterranean Europe, high human pressure, economic development, and climatic changes combine to produce land consumption, soil erosion, salinization, and fire risk, all considered as key factors to start desertification processes. For many years the term desertification has been strictly associated to geo-physical conditions, but in very complex ecosystems the study of the interaction of physical patterns with population and social characteristics is necessary to better delineate areas at risk. The aims of this paper are therefore (i) to review recent findings in term of desertification processes and risk assessment in the Mediterranean basin, (ii) to illustrate a simplified model in which social and economic variables may significantly accelerate land degradation leading to desertification, (iii) to suggest a set of demographic, economic, and institutional indicators suitable to contribute to the assessment of desertification risk in the Mediterranean basin, (iv) to built a synthetic index based on a multivariate approach and, finally, (v) to compare such index with a standard index of desertification risk only referring to geo-physical conditions. As a conclusion, new findings to be achieved in the context of human impact on environment as an original contribution to the study of desertification were delineated.

  3. Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendes, Diana A; Mendes, Vivaldo

    2005-01-01

    This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

  4. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous Preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Vipul Bhatt; Masao Ogaki; Yuichi Yaguchi

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  5. A Reformulation of Normative Economics for Models with Endogenous

    OpenAIRE

    Bhatt, Vipul; Ogaki, Masao; Yaguchi, Yuichi

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a framework to balance considerations of welfarism and virtue ethics in the normative analysis of economic models with endogenous preferences. We introduce the moral evaluation function (MEF), which ranks alternatives based purely on virtue ethics, and define the social objective function (SOF), which combines the Social Welfare Function (SWF) and the MEF. In a model of intergenerational altruism with endogenous time preference, using numerical simulations we show that max...

  6. Evaluating Behavioral Economic Models of Heavy Drinking Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuff, Samuel F; Soltis, Kathryn E; Dennhardt, Ashley A; Berlin, Kristoffer S; Murphy, James G

    2018-05-14

    Heavy drinking among college students is a significant public health concern that can lead to profound social and health consequences, including alcohol use disorder. Behavioral economics posits that low future orientation and high valuation of alcohol (alcohol demand) combined with deficits in alternative reinforcement increase the likelihood of alcohol misuse (Bickel et al., 2011). Despite this, no study has examined the incremental utility of all three variables simultaneously in a comprehensive model METHOD: The current study uses structural equation modeling to test the associations between behavioral economic variables - alcohol demand (latent), future orientation (measured with a delay discounting task and the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) scale), and proportionate substance-related reinforcement - and alcohol consumption and problems among 393 heavy drinking college students. Two models are tested: 1) an iteration of the reinforcer pathology model that includes an interaction between future orientation and alcohol demand; and 2) an alternative model evaluating the interconnectedness of behavioral economic variables in predicting problematic alcohol use RESULTS: The interaction effects in model 1 were nonsignificant. Model 2 suggests that greater alcohol demand and proportionate substance-related reinforcement is associated with greater alcohol consumption and problems. Further, CFC was associated with alcohol-related problems and lower proportionate substance-related reinforcement but was not significantly associated with alcohol consumption or alcohol demand. Finally, greater proportionate substance-related reinforcement was associated with greater alcohol demand CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the behavioral economic reinforcer pathology model as applied to young adult heavy drinking. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  7. Compatibility and economic assessment of sweetpotato and garden ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ecological zone of Nigeria, to determine the compatibility and economic viability of sweetpotato (Ipomoea batatas) and garden egg (Solanum gelio) intercrop during 2011 and 2012 cropping seasons. Two sweetpotato varieties; NR05/022 and ...

  8. Assessing economic and demographic impacts of intermodal transportation systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-14

    There exists a large literature of transportation impacts on economic and demographic change. Prior studies have focused on single modes of transportation individually rather than integrating these modes. Yet, little work has been undertaken to study...

  9. An Economic Assessment of the Impact of ICT on Performance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Key words: ICT, Water economics, water Resource Management, Nigeria, International. Water Wars. 1 ... the methodology employed in the study. ..... Jamieson, D.G and Fedra, K (1996) The 'Water Ware' decision-support systems for river.

  10. Economic Assessment of Rising Global Demand for Farmland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvid, Anna

    and homogeneous group in a country with political competition and stability. However, if the power distribution between the farmers and the political-economic elite is highly equal, this may have negative welfare effects, because the competition for rents will be very high, and hence a large amount of resources...... incomes, with poverty reductions and general economic development as the ultimate outcome. On the other hand it could also induce a neo-colonial scramble for land, where politically and economically powerful actors appropriate land at the expense of rural populations, whose livelihoods depend on this land...... increasing land values will mainly benefit the rural populations or the political-economic elites. In addition, it takes into account the deeper determinants of the extent to which farmers are able to obtain political power, and thereby claim their rights to a share of the benefits from increased value...

  11. A Linked Hydro-Economic Model to Examine the Effects of Water Policy on Rural Poverty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneta, M. P.; Torres, M.; Vosti, S. A.; Wallender, W. W.; Howitt, R.; Rodrigues, L. N.; Bassoi, L. H.; Pfeiffer, L.; Young, J.

    2006-12-01

    The sustainable intensification of small-scale agriculture is a necessary condition for reducing rural poverty in developing countries. Increasing the amount of irrigated cropland and the economic efficiency of irrigation are two key components of most intensification strategies. Improved access to water generally increases farm income but richer farmers use a disproportionate share of the available water, decreasing the chances of poor farmers to meet their water needs. Furthermore, water and poverty have strong spatial components that have so far been neglected in water planning. In that sense, too little is known about the short and long term hydrological effects, especially the externality effects of changes in on-farm water use and its implications to nearby farmers. To address this gap in knowledge, a spatially distributed and transient description of changes in surface and groundwater allocation under different agricultural management scenarios is needed. We propose a hydro-economic model providing a realistic spatio-temporal description of the linkages between the economic and hydrologic subsystems. This hydro-economic model is composed of a basin-level 3D spatially distributed transient hydrologic model (MOD-HMS) and a farm-level, spatially distributed agricultural production model. Both models are explicitly linked through the boundary conditions of the hydrologic model. The linkage will account for the spatial and temporal impact of different crop mixes, irrigation techniques and groundwater pumpage on water availability at farm level to assess the effects of policy action on the hydro-economic components of the system.

  12. A Pedagogical Note on Modeling the Economic Benefit of Emissions Abatement vs. the Economic Harm from Emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher S. Decker

    2012-01-01

    The number of undergraduate-level textbooks on environmental economics has increased in recent years, but the textbook treatment of optimal emissions (abatement) varies markedly from textbook to textbook. In particular, there is no consensus as to whether to model the economic “bad” (i.e. emissions) or the economic “good” (abatement). This inconsistency can lead to some needless confusion for students introduced to environmental economics for the first time, particularly those students outsid...

  13. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  14. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  15. Modeling companion diagnostics in economic evaluations of targeted oncology therapies: systematic review and methodological checklist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doble, Brett; Tan, Marcus; Harris, Anthony; Lorgelly, Paula

    2015-02-01

    The successful use of a targeted therapy is intrinsically linked to the ability of a companion diagnostic to correctly identify patients most likely to benefit from treatment. The aim of this study was to review the characteristics of companion diagnostics that are of importance for inclusion in an economic evaluation. Approaches for including these characteristics in model-based economic evaluations are compared with the intent to describe best practice methods. Five databases and government agency websites were searched to identify model-based economic evaluations comparing a companion diagnostic and subsequent treatment strategy to another alternative treatment strategy with model parameters for the sensitivity and specificity of the companion diagnostic (primary synthesis). Economic evaluations that limited model parameters for the companion diagnostic to only its cost were also identified (secondary synthesis). Quality was assessed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies instrument. 30 studies were included in the review (primary synthesis n = 12; secondary synthesis n = 18). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios may be lower when the only parameter for the companion diagnostic included in a model is the cost of testing. Incorporating the test's accuracy in addition to its cost may be a more appropriate methodological approach. Altering the prevalence of the genetic biomarker, specific population tested, type of test, test accuracy and timing/sequence of multiple tests can all impact overall model results. The impact of altering a test's threshold for positivity is unknown as it was not addressed in any of the included studies. Additional quality criteria as outlined in our methodological checklist should be considered due to the shortcomings of standard quality assessment tools in differentiating studies that incorporate important test-related characteristics and those that do not. There is a need to refine methods for incorporating the characteristics

  16. Assessing economic impacts of China's water pollution mitigation measures through a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Changbo; Jia Yangwen; Wang Hao; Bressers, Hans T A; Su, Z

    2011-01-01

    In this letter, we apply an extended environmental dynamic computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic consequences of implementing a total emission control policy. On the basis of emission levels in 2007, we simulate different emission reduction scenarios, ranging from 20 to 50% emission reduction, up to the year 2020. The results indicate that a modest total emission reduction target in 2020 can be achieved at low macroeconomic cost. As the stringency of policy targets increases, the macroeconomic cost will increase at a rate faster than linear. Implementation of a tradable emission permit system can counterbalance the economic costs affecting the gross domestic product and welfare. We also find that a stringent environmental policy can lead to an important shift in production, consumption and trade patterns from dirty sectors to relatively clean sectors.

  17. Technical and economic assessment of processes for the production of butanol and acetone

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    This report represents a preliminary technical and economic evaluation of a process which produces mixed solvents (butaol/acetone/ethanol) via fermentation of sugars derived from renewable biomass resources. The objective is to assess the technology of producing butanol/acetone from biomass, and select a viable process capable of serving as a base case model for technical and economic analysis. It is anticipated that the base case process developed herein can then be used as the basis for subsequent studies concerning biomass conversion processes capable of producing a wide range of chemicals. The general criteria utilized in determining the design basis for the process are profit potential and non-renewable energy displacement potential. The feedstock chosen, aspen wood, was selected from a number of potential renewable biomass resources as the most readily available in the United States and for its relatively large potential for producing reducing sugars.

  18. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grames, Johanna; Grass, Dieter; Prskawetz, Alexia; Blöschl, Günther

    2015-04-01

    Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy, water and population dynamics. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre, 2013, Viglione, 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This is the first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events: Investments in defense capital can avoid floods even when the water level is high, but on the other hand such investment competes with investment in productive capital and hence may reduce the level of consumption. When floods occur, the flood damage therefore depends on the existing defense capital. The aim is to find an optimal tradeoff between investments in productive versus defense capital such as to optimize the stream of consumption in the long-term. We assume a non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function (Yevjevich et.al. 1990, Zakaria 2001) which implies that the long-term equilibrium will be periodic . With our model we aim to derive mechanisms that allow consumption smoothing in the long term, and at the same time allow for optimal investment in flood defense to maximize economic output. We choose an aggregate welfare function that depends on the consumption level of the society as the objective function. I.e. we assume a social planer with perfect foresight that maximizes the aggregate welfare function. Within our model framework we can also study whether the path and level of defense capital (that protects people from floods) is related to the time preference rate of the social planner. Our model also allows to investigate how the frequency

  19. Economic evaluations of comprehensive geriatric assessment in surgical patients: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eamer, Gilgamesh; Saravana-Bawan, Bianka; van der Westhuizen, Brenden; Chambers, Thane; Ohinmaa, Arto; Khadaroo, Rachel G

    2017-10-01

    Seniors presenting with surgical disease face increased risk of postoperative morbidity and mortality and have increased treatment costs. Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) is proposed to reduce morbidity, mortality, and the cost after surgery. A systematic review of CGA in emergency surgical patients was conducted. The primary outcome was cost-effectiveness; secondary outcomes were length of stay, return of function, and mortality. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were predefined. Systematic searches of MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane, and National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database were performed. Text screening, bias assessment, and data extraction were performed by two authors. There were 560 articles identified; abstract review excluded 499 articles and full-text review excluded 53 articles. Eight studies were included; one nonorthopedic trauma and seven orthopedic trauma studies. Bias assessment revealed moderate to high risk of bias for all studies. Economic evaluation assessment identified two high-quality studies and six moderate or low quality studies. Pooled analysis from four studies assessed loss of function; loss of function decreased in the experimental arm (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-0.97). Pooled results for length of stay from five studies found a significant decrease (mean difference: -1.17, 95% CI: -1.63 to -0.71) after excluding the nonorthopedic trauma study. Pooled mortality was significantly decreased in seven studies (risk ratio: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.67-0.90). All studies decreased cost and improved health outcomes in a cost-effective manner. CGA improved return of function and mortality with reduced cost or improved utility. Our review suggests that CGA is economically dominant and the most cost-effective care model for orthogeriatric patients. Further research should examine other surgical fields. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. State of the art for assessing the off-side economic consequences of nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallego Diaz, E.

    1996-01-01

    The paper is intended to offer a wide perspective on th methodologies for assessing the off-side economic consequences of nuclear accidents. The element which can contribute to the cost are first reviewed, namely the application of countermeasures against radioactive contamination: population movements, decontamination, food bans; together with the resulting health effects if this is the case. The basic characteristics of the existing models and codes are also presented, including the most recent developments and intercomparisons of results. Some applications of this kind of studies in different fields are outlined. (Author) 17 refs

  1. Assessment of the Economic Potential of Distributed Wind in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCabe, Kevin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin O. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric J. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mooney, Meghan E. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2018-01-03

    This work seeks to identify current and future spatial distributions of economic potential for behind-the-meter distributed wind, serving primarily rural or suburban homes, farms, and manufacturing facilities in Colorado, Minnesota, and New York. These states were identified by technical experts based on their current favorability for distributed wind deployment. We use NREL's Distributed Wind Market Demand Model (dWind) (Lantz et al. 2017; Sigrin et al. 2016) to identify and rank counties in each of the states by their overall and per capita potential. From this baseline assessment, we also explore how and where improvements in cost, performance, and other market sensitivities affect distributed wind potential.

  2. Assessing the Economic Impact of Vaccine Availability When Controlling Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thibaud Porphyre

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Predictive models have been used extensively to assess the likely effectiveness of vaccination policies as part of control measures in the event of a foot and mouth disease (FMD outbreak. However, the availability of vaccine stocks and the impact of vaccine availability on disease control strategies represent a key uncertainty when assessing potential control strategies. Using an epidemiological, spatially explicit, simulation model in combination with a direct cost calculator, we assessed how vaccine availability constraints may affect the economic benefit of a “vaccination-to-live” strategy during a FMD outbreak in Scotland, when implemented alongside culling of infected premises and dangerous contacts. We investigated the impact of vaccine stock size and restocking delays on epidemiological and economic outcomes. We also assessed delays in the initial decision to vaccinate, maximum daily vaccination capacity, and vaccine efficacy. For scenarios with conditions conducive to large outbreaks, all vaccination strategies perform better than the strategy where only culling is implemented. A stock of 200,000 doses, enough to vaccinate 12% of the Scottish cattle population, would be sufficient to maximize the relative benefits of vaccination, both epidemiologically and economically. However, this generates a wider variation in economic cost than if vaccination is not implemented, making outcomes harder to predict. The probability of direct costs exceeding £500 million is reduced when vaccination is used and is steadily reduced further as the size of initial vaccine stock increases. If only a suboptimal quantity of vaccine doses is initially available (100,000 doses, restocking delays of more than 2 weeks rapidly increase the cost of controlling outbreaks. Impacts of low vaccine availability or restocking delays are particularly aggravated by delays in the initial decision to vaccinate, or low vaccine efficacy. Our findings confirm that

  3. Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy and Assessing the Sustainability of Economic Growth: A Multivariate Filter Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the current context of economic recovery and rebalancing, the necessity of modelling and estimating the potential output and output gap emerges in order to assess the quality and sustainability of economic growth, the monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the impact of business cycles. Despite the importance of potential GDP and the output gap, there are difficulties in reliably estimating them, as many of the models proposed in the economic literature are calibrated for developed economies and are based on complex macroeconomic relationships and a long history of robust data, while emerging economies exhibit high volatility. The object of this study is to develop a model in order to estimate the potential GDP and output gap and to assess the sustainability of projected growth using a multivariate filter approach. This trend estimation technique is the newest approach proposed by the economic literature and has gained wide acceptance with researchers and practitioners alike, while also being used by the IMF for Romania. The paper will be structured as follows. We first discuss the theoretical background of the model. The second section focuses on an analysis of the Romanian economy for the 1995–2013 time frame, while also providing a forecast for 2014–2017 and an assessment of the sustainability of Romania’s economic growth. The third section sums up the results and concludes.

  4. Comprehensive Assessment of Industries Economic Security: Regional Aspect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktoriya Viktorovna Akberdina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article investigates the interaction of the forms of network integration and the development of complimentary production networks in terms of economic security. Currently, the most developed countries are occurring a transition from the industrial society to the information society. The industry 4.0 as the continuous communication at all levels and characterizes the production processes, in which technologies and devices interact automatically in the value-added chain. Under these new conditions, the former types of organizational structures of economic entities are not sufficiently effective. Therefore, there is a need to create new, modern types of organizational structures. One of these types is network structures. Currently, they are becoming characteristic features of the new economy. Regional economic security depends on internal and external threats, which lead to unstable situations. Regional crisis situations are influenced by both macroeconomic crisis processes and local features of economic and social development, as well as the resource potential, geographical location, national and other peculiarities. The article defines the specific characteristics of the regions of the Ural Federal District, as well as the current situation of the regional economy and threats to the region. The authors have evaluated the economic security of complimentary production networks at the regional level. This evaluation has revealed the interconnection between complimentary production networks and the construction industry in the national economy. We have defined the economic security of complimentary production networks and specified the concept of complimentary production networks. The research findings may be applied by organizations as a new perspective of industry using network forms related to economic security

  5. Modeling human behavior in economics and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolfin, M; Leonida, L; Outada, N

    2017-12-01

    The complex interactions between human behaviors and social economic sciences is critically analyzed in this paper in view of possible applications of mathematical modeling as an attainable interdisciplinary approach to understand and simulate the aforementioned dynamics. The quest is developed along three steps: Firstly an overall analysis of social and economic sciences indicates the main requirements that a contribution of mathematical modeling should bring to these sciences; subsequently the focus moves to an overview of mathematical tools and to the selection of those which appear, according to the authors bias, appropriate to the modeling; finally, a survey of applications is presented looking ahead to research perspectives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  7. The Economic Basis of the Model of Traditional Montenegrin Masculinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branko Banović

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity is inseparable from the social formations that have contributed to its creation, hence the need for its more thorough economic, social and historical contextualization. It is particularly important to distinguish the two components of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity, which tend to be intertwined and are therefore difficult to separate. The first concerns the gender roles assigned to men and women in an economy based on livestock raising, warfare, and raiding, while the other concerns the concept of gender roles shaped by fictional, ethnological and historical narratives. The paper attempts to problematize the economic basis of the model of traditional Montenegrin masculinity in the context of a semi-nomadic livestock raising economy and a clan’s collective property.

  8. Economic assessment of solar electricity production from organic-based photovoltaic modules in a domestic environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azzopardi, Brian; Emmott, Christopher J. M.; Urbina, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an economic assessment of OPV based on an existing pre-industrial manufacturing process and the associated detailed material inventory.......This paper presents an economic assessment of OPV based on an existing pre-industrial manufacturing process and the associated detailed material inventory....

  9. Final report of the project performance assessment and economic evaluation of nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasilainen, K.; Anttila, M.; Hautojaervi, A.

    1993-05-01

    The publication is the final report of project Performance Assessment and Economic Evaluation of Nuclear Waste Management (TOKA) at the Nuclear Engineering Laboratory of VTT (Technical Research Centre of Finland), forming part of the Publicly Financed Nuclear Waste Management Research Programme (JYT). The project covers safety and cost aspects of all phases of nuclear waste management. The main emphasis has been on developing an integrated system of models for performance assessment of nuclear waste repositories. During the four years the project has so far been in progress, the total amount of work has been around 14 person-years. Computer codes are the main tools in the project, they are either developed by the project team or acquired from abroad. In-house model development has been especially active in groundwater flow, near-field and migration modelling. The quantitative interpretation of Finnish tracer experiments in the laboratory and natural analogue studies at Palmottu support performance assessments via increased confidence in the migration concepts used. The performance assessment philosophy adopted by the team consists of deterministic modelling and pragmatic scenario analysis. This is supported by the long-term experience in practical performance assessment of the team, and in theoretical probabilistic modelling exercises. The radiological risks of spent fuel transportation from the Loviisa nuclear power plant to Russia have been analysed using a probabilistic computer code and Finnish traffic accident statistics. The project assists the authorities in the annual assessment of utility estimates of funding needs for future nuclear waste management operations. The models and methods used within the project are tested in international verification/validation projects

  10. Global assessment of the economics of land degradation and improvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkonya, Ephraim

    2017-04-01

    Land degradation—defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report as the long-term loss of ecosystems services—is a global problem, negatively affecting the livelihoods and food security of billions of people. Intensifying efforts, mobilizing more investments and strengthening the policy commitment for addressing land degradation at the global level needs to be supported by a careful evaluation of the costs and benefits of action versus costs of inaction against land degradation. Consistent with the definition of land degradation, we adopt the Total Economic Value (TEV) approach to determine the costs of land degradation and use remote sensing data and global statistical databases in our analysis. The results show that the annual costs of land degradation due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) are about US231 billion per year or about 0.41 % of the global GDP of US56.49 trillion in 2007. Contrary to past global land degradation assessment studies, land degradation is severe in both tropical and temperate countries. However, the losses from LUCC are especially high in Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 26 % of the total global costs of land degradation due to LUCC. However, the local tangible losses (mainly provisioning services) account only for 46 % of the total cost of land degradation and the rest of the cost is due to the losses of ecosystem services (ES) accruable largely to beneficiaries other than the local land users. These external ES losses include carbon sequestration, biodiversity, genetic information and cultural services. This implies that the global community bears the largest cost of land degradation, which suggests that efforts to address land degradation should be done bearing in mind that the global community,as a whole, incurs larger losses than the local communities experiencing land degradation. The cost of soil fertility mining due to using land degrading management practices on maize, rice and wheat is estimated to be

  11. Basin Economic Allocation Model (BEAM): An economic model of water use developed for the Aral Sea Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegels, Niels; Kromann, Mikkel; Karup Pedersen, Jesper; Lindgaard-Jørgensen, Palle; Sokolov, Vadim; Sorokin, Anatoly

    2013-04-01

    The water resources of the Aral Sea basin are under increasing pressure, particularly from the conflict over whether hydropower or irrigation water use should take priority. The purpose of the BEAM model is to explore the impact of changes to water allocation and investments in water management infrastructure on the overall welfare of the Aral Sea basin. The BEAM model estimates welfare changes associated with changes to how water is allocated between the five countries in the basin (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan; water use in Afghanistan is assumed to be fixed). Water is allocated according to economic optimization criteria; in other words, the BEAM model allocates water across time and space so that the economic welfare associated with water use is maximized. The model is programmed in GAMS. The model addresses the Aral Sea Basin as a whole - that is, the rivers Syr Darya, Amu Darya, Kashkadarya, and Zarafshan, as well as the Aral Sea. The model representation includes water resources, including 14 river sections, 6 terminal lakes, 28 reservoirs and 19 catchment runoff nodes, as well as land resources (i.e., irrigated croplands). The model covers 5 sectors: agriculture (crops: wheat, cotton, alfalfa, rice, fruit, vegetables and others), hydropower, nature, households and industry. The focus of the model is on welfare impacts associated with changes to water use in the agriculture and hydropower sectors. The model aims at addressing the following issues of relevance for economic management of water resources: • Physical efficiency (estimating how investments in irrigation efficiency affect economic welfare). • Economic efficiency (estimating how changes in how water is allocated affect welfare). • Equity (who will gain from changes in allocation of water from one sector to another and who will lose?). Stakeholders in the region have been involved in the development of the model, and about 10 national experts, including

  12. Assessing the economic and fiscal effects of repository siting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chase, R.A.; Leistritz, F.L.; Halstead, J.M.

    1983-01-01

    The development of high-level nuclear waste repositories can be expected to produce a substantial stimulus to the local economy, but the magnitude and speed of this stimulus may pose planning problems for nearby communities. The chapter is divided into two major sections: 1) a review of the major economic and fiscal effects likely to occur, and 2) a discussion of the methods and techniques which can be used to estimate the magnitude, timing, and distribution of such effects. The six categories of effects described are those on employment patterns and characteristics, income, local trade and service firms, community price structure changes, other basic economic sectors, and public sector costs and revenues

  13. Economism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Simons

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Modern society is characterised not only by a fascination with scientific technology as a means of solving all problems, especially those that stand in the way of material progress (technicism, but also by an obsessive interest in everything that has to do with money (economism or mammonism. The article discusses the relationship between technicism and economism, on the basis of their relationship to utilitarian thinking: the quest for the greatest happiness for the greatest number of people. Recent major studies of neo-liberalism (seen as an intensification of utilitarianism by Laval and Dardot are used as reference to the development of utilitarianism. It is suggested that the western view of the world, as expressed in economism and technicism, with a utilitarian ethics, features three absolutisations: those of theoretical thinking, technology and economics. In a second part, the article draws on the framework of reformational philosophy to suggest an approach that, in principle, is not marred by such absolutisations.

  14. Economic value added model upon conditions of banking company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Kašparovská

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The content of this article is the application of the economic value added model (EVA upon the conditions of a banking company. Due to the character of banking business, which is in a different structure of financial sheet, it is not possible to use the standard model EVA for this banking company. The base of this article is the outlined of basic principles of the EVA mode in a non-banking company. Basic specified banking activity dissimilarities are analysed and a directed methodology adjustment of a model such as this, so that it is possible to use it for a banking company.

  15. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  16. Modeling the clinical and economic implications of obesity using microsimulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, W; Huang, J; Chen, F; Iacobucci, W; Mocarski, M; Dall, T M; Perreault, L

    2015-01-01

    The obesity epidemic has raised considerable public health concerns, but there are few validated longitudinal simulation models examining the human and economic cost of obesity. This paper describes a microsimulation model as a comprehensive tool to understand the relationship between body weight, health, and economic outcomes. Patient health and economic outcomes were simulated annually over 10 years using a Markov-based microsimulation model. The obese population examined is nationally representative of obese adults in the US from the 2005-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, while a matched normal weight population was constructed to have similar demographics as the obese population during the same period. Prediction equations for onset of obesity-related comorbidities, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality-of-life came from published trials and studies supplemented with original research. Model validation followed International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research practice guidelines. Among surviving adults, relative to a matched normal weight population, obese adults averaged $3900 higher medical expenditures in the initial year, growing to $4600 higher expenditures in year 10. Obese adults had higher initial prevalence and higher simulated onset of comorbidities as they aged. Over 10 years, excess medical expenditures attributed to obesity averaged $4280 annually-ranging from $2820 for obese category I to $5100 for obese category II, and $8710 for obese category III. Each excess kilogram of weight contributed to $140 higher annual costs, on average, ranging from $136 (obese I) to $152 (obese III). Poor health associated with obesity increased work absenteeism and mortality, and lowered employment probability, personal income, and quality-of-life. This validated model helps illustrate why obese adults have higher medical and indirect costs relative to normal weight adults, and shows that medical costs

  17. Automated economic analysis model for hazardous waste minimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dharmavaram, S.; Mount, J.B.; Donahue, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    The US Army has established a policy of achieving a 50 percent reduction in hazardous waste generation by the end of 1992. To assist the Army in reaching this goal, the Environmental Division of the US Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (USACERL) designed the Economic Analysis Model for Hazardous Waste Minimization (EAHWM). The EAHWM was designed to allow the user to evaluate the life cycle costs for various techniques used in hazardous waste minimization and to compare them to the life cycle costs of current operating practices. The program was developed in C language on an IBM compatible PC and is consistent with other pertinent models for performing economic analyses. The potential hierarchical minimization categories used in EAHWM include source reduction, recovery and/or reuse, and treatment. Although treatment is no longer an acceptable minimization option, its use is widespread and has therefore been addressed in the model. The model allows for economic analysis for minimization of the Army's six most important hazardous waste streams. These include, solvents, paint stripping wastes, metal plating wastes, industrial waste-sludges, used oils, and batteries and battery electrolytes. The EAHWM also includes a general application which can be used to calculate and compare the life cycle costs for minimization alternatives of any waste stream, hazardous or non-hazardous. The EAHWM has been fully tested and implemented in more than 60 Army installations in the United States

  18. Schumpeterian economic dynamics as a quantifiable model of evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Hanel, Rudolf

    2010-07-01

    We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market, they may compete against already existing goods. In other words, new products can have destructive effects on existing goods. As a result of this competition mechanism, existing goods may be driven out from the market—often causing cascades of secondary defects (Schumpeterian gales of destruction). The model leads to generic dynamics characterized by phases of relative economic stability followed by phases of massive restructuring of markets—which could be interpreted as Schumpeterian business 'cycles'. Model time series of product diversity and productivity reproduce several stylized facts of economics time series on long timescales, such as GDP or business failures, including non-Gaussian fat tailed distributions and volatility clustering. The model is phrased in an open, non-equilibrium setup which can be understood as a self-organized critical system. Its diversity dynamics can be understood by the time-varying topology of the active production networks.

  19. Physically-based Assessment of Tropical Cyclone Damage and Economic Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.

    2012-12-01

    Estimating damage and economic losses caused by tropical cyclones (TC) is a topic of considerable research interest in many scientific fields, including meteorology, structural and coastal engineering, and actuarial sciences. One approach is based on the empirical relationship between TC characteristics and loss data. Another is to model the physical mechanism of TC-induced damage. In this talk we discuss about the physically-based approach to predict TC damage and losses due to extreme wind and storm surge. We first present an integrated vulnerability model, which, for the first time, explicitly models the essential mechanisms causing wind damage to residential areas during storm passage, including windborne-debris impact and the pressure-debris interaction that may lead, in a chain reaction, to structural failures (Lin and Vanmarcke 2010; Lin et al. 2010a). This model can be used to predict the economic losses in a residential neighborhood (with hundreds of buildings) during a specific TC (Yau et al. 2011) or applied jointly with a TC risk model (e.g., Emanuel et al 2008) to estimate the expected losses over long time periods. Then we present a TC storm surge risk model that has been applied to New York City (Lin et al. 2010b; Lin et al. 2012; Aerts et al. 2012), Miami-Dade County, Florida (Klima et al. 2011), Galveston, Texas (Lickley, 2012), and other coastal areas around the world (e.g., Tampa, Florida; Persian Gulf; Darwin, Australia; Shanghai, China). These physically-based models are applicable to various coastal areas and have the capability to account for the change of the climate and coastal exposure over time. We also point out that, although made computationally efficient for risk assessment, these models are not suitable for regional or global analysis, which has been a focus of the empirically-based economic analysis (e.g., Hsiang and Narita 2012). A future research direction is to simplify the physically-based models, possibly through

  20. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.

    1983-01-01

    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  1. Economic Assessment of Palm Oil Processing in Owerri Agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study was on economic analysis of palm oil processing in Owerri Agricultural zone of Imo State, it was designed to determine the costs and returns of palm oil processing in the area of study. Seventy five (75) palm oil processors were randomly sampled from the study location and a structured interview schedule was ...

  2. 108 AN ASSESSMENT OF TAX RELIEFS AND ECONOMIC ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    As advantageous as the payment of taxes to the government is, as a result of its ... Therefore, this study seeks to examine the nature of tax reliefs available to tax ... in the level of economic activity or tax payer's behaviour, then the tax policy ... The implication of this is that any tax payer that receives earned income shall be.

  3. Carbon felt and carbon fiber - A techno-economic assessment of felt electrodes for redox flow battery applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minke, Christine; Kunz, Ulrich; Turek, Thomas

    2017-02-01

    Carbon felt electrodes belong to the key components of redox flow batteries. The purpose of this techno-economic assessment is to uncover the production costs of PAN- and rayon-based carbon felt electrodes. Raw material costs, energy demand and the impact of processability of fiber and felt are considered. This innovative, interdisciplinary approach combines deep insights into technical, ecologic and economic aspects of carbon felt and carbon fiber production. Main results of the calculation model are mass balances, cumulative energy demands (CED) and the production costs of conventional and biogenic carbon felts supplemented by market assessments considering textile and carbon fibers.

  4. Assessment of socio-economic potential of regions for placement of the logistic infrastructure objects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandr Nelevich Rakhmangulov

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Currently, at the regional markets, there is a disproportion between the growing demand for transportation and logistics services and the availability of facilities needed for their implementation, which is because the high logistics costs and does not meet the strategic objectives of the country to create a common economic space. The article describes the system of market factors that have the most significant influence on the distribution of logistics facilities. Study and evaluation of potential changes in the region of logistics facility disposition are proposed to perform using simulation techniques and statistical data analysis. The article presents the engineered multivariate statistical models that control the kind and effect of correlation between socio-economic development factors of regions, as well as a simulation model, which allows to assess the dynamics of these factors and predict demand for logistics infrastructure facilities. The choice of region (subject dislocation of the logistics center is proposed to realize by the developed technique based on the calculation of the integrated index that takes into account differences in the level of socio-economic and infrastructural development of the regions. This technique in conjunction with a simulation model is applicable to a variety of administrative and territorial levels (region, city and allows to take into account both the current demand in the logistics infrastructure and demand dynamics. The technique given in the article can be used to assess the level of attractiveness of the Russian Federation in the development of public and private investment projects for the development of logistics infrastructure

  5. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  6. Nonlinear Economic Model Predictive Control Strategy for Active Smart Buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Rui Mirra; Zong, Yi; Sousa, Joao M. C.

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm ...... controller is shown very reliable keeping the comfort levels in the two considered seasons and shifting the load away from peak hours in order to achieve the desired flexible electricity consumption.......Nowadays, the development of advanced and innovative intelligent control techniques for energy management in buildings is a key issue within the smart grid topic. A nonlinear economic model predictive control (EMPC) scheme, based on the branch-and-bound tree search used as optimization algorithm...

  7. Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

    2017-01-01

    This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

  8. Economic modeling of fault tolerant flight control systems in commercial applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finelli, G. B.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes the current development of a comprehensive model which will supply the assessment and analysis capability to investigate the economic viability of Fault Tolerant Flight Control Systems (FTFCS) for commercial aircraft of the 1990's and beyond. An introduction to the unique attributes of fault tolerance and how they will influence aircraft operations and consequent airline costs and benefits is presented. Specific modeling issues and elements necessary for accurate assessment of all costs affected by ownership and operation of FTFCS are delineated. Trade-off factors are presented, aimed at exposing economically optimal realizations of system implementations, resource allocation, and operating policies. A trade-off example is furnished to graphically display some of the analysis capabilities of the comprehensive simulation model now being developed.

  9. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  10. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  11. Modeling hard clinical end-point data in economic analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kansal, Anuraag R; Zheng, Ying; Palencia, Roberto; Ruffolo, Antonio; Hass, Bastian; Sorensen, Sonja V

    2013-11-01

    The availability of hard clinical end-point data, such as that on cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is increasing, and as a result there is growing interest in using hard end-point data of this type in economic analyses. This study investigated published approaches for modeling hard end-points from clinical trials and evaluated their applicability in health economic models with different disease features. A review of cost-effectiveness models of interventions in clinically significant therapeutic areas (CV diseases, cancer, and chronic lower respiratory diseases) was conducted in PubMed and Embase using a defined search strategy. Only studies integrating hard end-point data from randomized clinical trials were considered. For each study included, clinical input characteristics and modeling approach were summarized and evaluated. A total of 33 articles (23 CV, eight cancer, two respiratory) were accepted for detailed analysis. Decision trees, Markov models, discrete event simulations, and hybrids were used. Event rates were incorporated either as constant rates, time-dependent risks, or risk equations based on patient characteristics. Risks dependent on time and/or patient characteristics were used where major event rates were >1%/year in models with fewer health states (Models of infrequent events or with numerous health states generally preferred constant event rates. The detailed modeling information and terminology varied, sometimes requiring interpretation. Key considerations for cost-effectiveness models incorporating hard end-point data include the frequency and characteristics of the relevant clinical events and how the trial data is reported. When event risk is low, simplification of both the model structure and event rate modeling is recommended. When event risk is common, such as in high risk populations, more detailed modeling approaches, including individual simulations or explicitly time-dependent event rates, are

  12. Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Clifford R. Wymer

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

  13. Dynamic ecological-economic modeling approach for management of shellfish aquaculture

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nobre, AM

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this report is to conceptualize ecological and economic interactions in mariculture; to implement a dynamic ecological-economic model in order to: simulate the socio-economics of aquaculture production, simulate its effects...

  14. Managing water scarcity in the Magdalena river basin in Colombia.An economic assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolivar Lobato, Martha Isabel; Schneider, Uwe A.

    2014-05-01

    Key words: global change, water scarcity, river basin In Colombia, serious water conflicts began to emerge with the economic development in the 70ies and 80ies and the term "water scarcity" became a common word in this tropical country. Despite a mean annual runoff of 1840 mm, which classifies Colombia as a water rich country, shortfalls in fresh water availability have become a frequent event in the last two decades. One reason for the manifestation of water scarcity is the long-held perception of invulnerable water abundance, which has delayed technical and political developments to use water more efficiently. The Magdalena watershed is the most important and complex area in Colombia, because of its huge anthropogenic present, economic development and increasing environmental problems. This river basin has a total area of 273,459 km2, equivalent to 24% of the territory of the country. It is home to 79% of the country's population (32.5 million of inhabitants) and approximately 85% of Gross Domestic Product of Colombia is generated in this area. Since the economic development of the 1970s and 1980s, large changes in land cover and related environmental conditions have occurred in the Magdalena basin. These changes include deforestation, agricultural land expansion, soil degradation, lower groundwater and increased water pollution. To assess the consequences of geophysical alteration and economic development, we perform an integrated analysis of water demand, water supply, land use changes and possible water management strategies. The main objective of this study is to determine how global and local changes affect the balance between water supply and demand in the Magdalena river basin in Colombia, the consequences of different water pricing schemes, and the social benefits of public or private investments into various water management infrastructures. To achieve this goal, a constrained welfare maximization model has been developed. The General Algebraic Modeling

  15. Modeling imbalanced economic recovery following a natural disaster using input-output analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Syddall, Mark; Guan, Dabo

    2013-10-01

    Input-output analysis is frequently used in studies of large-scale weather-related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10-30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Economic damages of ozone air pollution to crops using combined air quality and GIS modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlachokostas, Ch.; Nastis, S. A.; Achillas, Ch.; Kalogeropoulos, K.; Karmiris, I.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Chourdakis, E.; Banias, G.; Limperi, N.

    2010-09-01

    This study aims at presenting a combined air quality and GIS modelling methodological approach in order to estimate crop damages from photochemical air pollution, depict their spatial resolution and assess the order of magnitude regarding the corresponding economic damages. The analysis is conducted within the Greater Thessaloniki Area, Greece, a Mediterranean territory which is characterised by high levels of photochemical air pollution and considerable agricultural activity. Ozone concentration fields for 2002 and for specific emission reduction scenarios for the year 2010 were estimated with the Ozone Fine Structure model in the area under consideration. Total economic damage to crops turns out to be significant and estimated to be approximately 43 M€ for the reference year. Production of cotton presents the highest economic loss, which is over 16 M€, followed by table tomato (9 M€), rice (4.2 M€), wheat (4 M€) and oilseed rape (2.8 M€) cultivations. Losses are not spread uniformly among farmers and the major losses occur in areas with valuable ozone-sensitive crops. The results are very useful for highlighting the magnitude of the total economic impacts of photochemical air pollution to the area's agricultural sector and can potentially be used for comparison with studies worldwide. Furthermore, spatial analysis of the economic damage could be of importance for governmental authorities and decision makers since it provides an indicative insight, especially if the economic instruments such as financial incentives or state subsidies to farmers are considered.

  17. Assessment of the economic costs of damage caused by air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holland, M.R.

    1995-01-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is one of the fundamental tools for the development of economic instruments for pollution control. The costs of various abatement measures are reasonably well characterised. However, assessment of the economic costs of pollutant impacts is less well developed. This paper reports on two studies carried out for DGXII of the European Commission, the ExternE-Project and the Green Accounting Research Project. Both studies have been performed by international, multi-disciplinary research teams. Analysis of the effects of emissions of PM 10 , SO 2 , NO x and VOCs (as ozone precursors) has included assessment of human health, materials, crops and other terrestrial ecosystems, and freshwater fisheries. The analysis follows the 'impact pathway' approach, linking dose-response functions, valuation data and other models. It differs significantly to earlier 'top-down' approaches that made only very limited use of the wealth of scientific data available. Most success has been achieved in analysis of impacts on human health, building materials and crops. Significant uncertainties exist for these receptors, though these have been identified and are now being addressed. Assessment of impacts on other receptors, perhaps most notably forests, is more limited. The methodology is particularly applicable for analysis of impacts on receptors for which the critical loads approach is not appropriate. 7 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  18. An Economic Model of U.S. Airline Operating Expenses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Franklin D.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a new economic model of operating expenses for 67 airlines. The model is based on data that the airlines reported to the United States Department of Transportation in 1999. The model incorporates expense-estimating equations that capture direct and indirect expenses of both passenger and cargo airlines. The variables and business factors included in the equations are detailed enough to calculate expenses at the flight equipment reporting level. Total operating expenses for a given airline are then obtained by summation over all aircraft operated by the airline. The model's accuracy is demonstrated by correlation with the DOT Form 41 data from which it was derived. Passenger airlines are more accurately modeled than cargo airlines. An appendix presents a concise summary of the expense estimating equations with explanatory notes. The equations include many operational and aircraft variables, which accommodate any changes that airline and aircraft manufacturers might make to lower expenses in the future. In 1999, total operating expenses of the 67 airlines included in this study amounted to slightly over $100.5 billion. The economic model reported herein estimates $109.3 billion.

  19. Input-output model of regional environmental and economic impacts of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, M.H.; Bennett, J.T.

    1979-01-01

    The costs of delayed licensing of nuclear power plants calls for a more-comprehensive method of quantifying the economic and environmental impacts on a region. A traditional input-output (I-O) analysis approach is extended to assess the effects of changes in output, income, employment, pollution, water consumption, and the costs and revenues of local government disaggregated among 23 industry sectors during the construction and operating phases. Unlike earlier studies, this model uses nonlinear environmental interactions and specifies environmental feedbacks to the economic sector. 20 references

  20. Tax Compliance Models: From Economic to Behavioral Approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larissa Margareta BĂTRÂNCEA

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the models of tax compliance with an emphasis on economic and behavioral perspectives. Although the standard tax evasion model of Allingham and Sandmo and other similar economic models capture some important aspects of tax compliance (i.e., taxpayers’ response to increases in tax rate, audit probability, penalty rate they do not suffice the need for an accurate prediction of taxpayers’ behavior. The reason is that they do not offer a comprehensive perspective on the sociological and psychological factors which shape compliance (i.e., attitudes, beliefs, norms, perceptions, motivations. Therefore, the researchers have considered examining taxpayers’ inner motivations, beliefs, perceptions, attitudes in order to accurately predict taxpayers’ behavior. As a response to their quest, behavioral models of tax compliance have emerged. Among the sociological and psychological factors which shape tax compliance, the ‘slippery slope’ framework singles out trust in authorities and the perception of the power of authorities. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the understanding of the reasons for which there is a need for a tax compliance model which incorporates both economic and behavioral features and why governments and tax authorities should consider these models when designing fiscal policies.

  1. Dairy foods and osteoporosis: an example of assessing the health-economic impact of food products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lötters, F J B; Lenoir-Wijnkoop, I; Fardellone, P; Rizzoli, R; Rocher, E; Poley, M J

    2013-01-01

    Osteoporosis has become a major health concern, carrying a substantial burden in terms of health outcomes and costs. We constructed a model to quantify the potential effect of an additional intake of calcium from dairy foods on the risk of osteoporotic fracture, taking a health economics perspective. This study seeks, first, to estimate the impact of an increased dairy consumption on reducing the burden of osteoporosis in terms of health outcomes and costs, and, second, to contribute to a generic methodology for assessing the health-economic outcomes of food products. We constructed a model that generated the number of hip fractures that potentially can be prevented with dairy foods intakes, and then calculated costs avoided, considering the healthcare costs of hip fractures and the costs of additional dairy foods, as well as the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to hip fractures associated with low nutritional calcium intake. Separate analyses were done for The Netherlands, France, and Sweden, three countries with different levels of dairy products consumption. The number of hip fractures that may potentially be prevented each year with additional dairy products was highest in France (2,023), followed by Sweden (455) and The Netherlands (132). The yearly number of DALYs lost was 6,263 for France, 1,246 for Sweden, and 374 for The Netherlands. The corresponding total costs that might potentially be avoided are about 129 million, 34 million, and 6 million Euros, in these countries, respectively. This study quantified the potential nutrition economic impact of increased dairy consumption on osteoporotic fractures, building connections between the fields of nutrition and health economics. Future research should further collect longitudinal population data for documenting the net benefits of increasing dairy consumption on bone health and on the related utilization of healthcare resources.

  2. Cost Assessment Methodology and Economic Viability of Tidal Energy Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Segura

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The exploitation of technologies with which to harness the energy from ocean currents will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to their enormous potential for electricity production and their high predictability. In this respect, the development of methodologies for the economic viability of these technologies is fundamental to the attainment of a consistent quantification of their costs and the discovery of their economic viability, while simultaneously attracting investment in these technologies. This paper presents a methodology with which to determine the economic viability of tidal energy projects, which includes a technical study of the life-cycle costs into which the development of a tidal farm can be decomposed: concept and definition, design and development, manufacturing, installation, operation and maintenance and dismantling. These cost structures are additionally subdivided by considering their sub-costs and bearing in mind the main components of the tidal farm: the nacelle, the supporting tidal energy converter structure and the export power system. Furthermore, a technical study is developed in order to obtain an estimation of the annual energy produced (and, consequently, the incomes generated if the electric tariff is known by considering its principal attributes: the characteristics of the current, the ability of the device to capture energy and its ability to convert and export the energy. The methodology has been applied (together with a sensibility analysis to the particular case of a farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the U.K., and the results have been attained by means of the computation of engineering indexes, such as the net present value, the internal rate of return, the discounted payback period and the levelized cost of energy, which indicate that the proposed project is economically viable for all the case studies.

  3. Techno-Economic Assessment of Micro-Algae Production Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Hoffman, Justin

    2016-01-01

    Global oil consumption is rising at an unprecedented rate renewing interest in alternative fuels. Micro-algae represents a promising feedstock due to inherent advantages such as high solar energy efficiencies, large lipid fractions, and utilization of various waste streams including industrial flue gas. Current technological challenges have limited the commercial viability of microalgae based biofuel production systems. This study directly evaluates and compares the economic viability of biom...

  4. Italian Residential Buildings: Economic Assessments for Biomass Boilers Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurizio Carlini

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Biomass is increasingly used for energy generation since it represents a useful alternative to fossil fuel in order to face the pollutions and the global warming problem. It can be exploited for heating purposes and for supplying domestic hot water. The most common applications encompass wood and pellet boilers. The economic aspect is becoming an important issue in order to achieve the ambitious targets set by the European Directives on Renewable Sources. Thus, the present paper deals with the economic feasibility of biomass boiler plants with specific regard to an existing residential building. An Italian case study is further investigated, focusing the attention on European and national regulations on energy efficiency and considering the recent public incentives and supporting measures. The main thermoclimatic parameters—that is, heating degree days (HDDs, building thermal insulation and thermal needs—are taken into account. Moreover, the following economic indicators are calculated: cumulative cash flow, discounted cumulative cash flow, payback period (PP, net present value (NPV, Internal rate of return (IRR, discounted payback period (DPP, and profit index (PI.

  5. An economic assessment of the U.S. MHTGR design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mears, L.D.

    1991-01-01

    US utilities and users have established an economic goal for the US MHTGR reference plant design which is the development of a design that has an evaluated economic advantage of at least 10% in the 30 year levelized busbar cost of electricity relative to a comparable sized, state-of-the-art coal fired plant while requiring equivalent institutional resources and posing equivalent financial risks. The term ''equivalent institutional resources'' means that approximately the same level of qualified personnel and organizational capability, functioning within similar corporate cultures, is required to successfully procure, license, operate, maintain and decommission the plants. The term ''equivalent financial risks'' means that approximately the same level of uncertainty exists for receiving an adequate return on investment, such that investors will be equally likely to invest in the MHTGR or coal plants. This paper presents a summary of the background, approach, and the current estimate for the US reference MHTGR electric generating plant. The plant is composed of two power building blocks producing a total output of 538 MW(e). Each building block consists of two reactor modules and one turbine-generator set. Additional economic results are given for a cogeneration application with a seawater desalination plant. (author)

  6. Economic assessment of new technology of nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H. S.; Song, K. D.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lee, J. S.; Choi, H. B.

    1998-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the change in the manufacturing cost of DUPIC fuel on the power generation cost. In doing so, the installed capacity of nuclear power plants until the year 2040 were forecasted by using the trend analysis technique. This study used the NUFCAP computer code, developed by KAERI, which allows to conduct quantitative evaluation of the volumes of nuclear fuel and spent fuel as well as unit and system costs of nuclear fuel cycle. As a result of this study, it was found that there was little economic difference between the two possible options for the Korean electric system, direct disposal and DUPIC fuel cycle. The rate of discount and the manufacturing cost of DUPIC fuel were resulted in the most significant factors affecting the economics of the two options. Finally, it was expected that the result of this study provided the arguing point for the international debate on the economics of DUPIC fuel cycle technology. (author). 6 refs., 7 tabs., 8 figs

  7. A bio-economic application to the Cape Rock Lobster resource using a delay difference modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Roos

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available In many species, like the Cape Rock Lobster (Jasus lalandii, the life cycles of males and females differ. This may motivate the use of two-sex models in a stock-assessment analysis. It is also true for this resource, that juveniles do not reach sexual maturity immediately. Therefore a delay-difference model is appropriate. In this study we follow a bio-economic approach and use a two-sex delay-difference model to determine a maximum economic yield strategy. Thus we determine an economic optimum steady state solution at which to harvest this resource subject to the biological constraints of the species.

  8. Improving Flood Damage Assessment Models in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amadio, M.; Mysiak, J.; Carrera, L.; Koks, E.

    2015-12-01

    The use of Stage-Damage Curve (SDC) models is prevalent in ex-ante assessments of flood risk. To assess the potential damage of a flood event, SDCs describe a relation between water depth and the associated potential economic damage over land use. This relation is normally developed and calibrated through site-specific analysis based on ex-post damage observations. In some cases (e.g. Italy) SDCs are transferred from other countries, undermining the accuracy and reliability of simulation results. Against this background, we developed a refined SDC model for Northern Italy, underpinned by damage compensation records from a recent flood event. Our analysis considers both damage to physical assets and production losses from business interruptions. While the first is calculated based on land use information, production losses are measured through the spatial distribution of Gross Value Added (GVA). An additional component of the model assesses crop-specific agricultural losses as a function of flood seasonality. Our results show an overestimation of asset damage from non-calibrated SDC values up to a factor of 4.5 for tested land use categories. Furthermore, we estimate that production losses amount to around 6 per cent of the annual GVA. Also, maximum yield losses are less than a half of the amount predicted by the standard SDC methods.

  9. Economical assessment of a wind-hydrogen energy system using WindHyGen registered software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguado, Monica; Ayerbe, Elixabete; Garde, Raquel; Rivas, David M.; Azcarate, Cristina; Blanco, Rosa; Mallor, Fermin

    2009-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of analyzing the economical feasibility of a wind-hydrogen energy storage and transformation system. Energy systems based on certain renewable sources as wind power, have the drawback of random input making them a non-reliable supplier of energy. Regulation of output energy requires the introduction of new equipment with the capacity to store it. We have chosen the hydrogen as an energy storage system due to its versatility. The advantage of these energy storage systems is that the energy can be used (sold) when the demand for energy rises, and needs (prices) therefore are higher. There are two disadvantages: (a) the cost of the new equipment and (b) energy loss due to inefficiencies in the transformation processes. In this research we develop a simulation model to aid in the economic assessment of this type of energy systems, which also integrates an optimization phase to simulate optimal management policies. Finally we analyze a wind-hydrogen farm in order to determine its economical viability compared to current wind farms. (author)

  10. Economic assessment and optimal operation of CSP systems with TES in California electricity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowling, Alexander W.; Dyreson, Ana; Miller, Franklin; Zavala, Victor M.

    2017-06-01

    The economics and performance of concentrated power (CSP) systems with thermal energy storage (TES) inherently depend on operating policies and the surrounding weather conditions and electricity markets. We present an integrated economic assessment framework to quantify the maximum possible revenues from simultaneous energy and ancillary services sales by CSP systems. The framework includes both discrete start-up/shutdown restrictions and detailed physical models. Analysis of coinci-dental historical market and meteorological data reveals provision of ancillary services increases market revenue 18% to 37% relative to energy-only participation. Surprisingly, only 53% to 62% of these revenues are available through sole participation in the day-ahead market, indicating significant opportunities at faster timescales. Motivated by water-usage concerns and permitting requirements, we also describe a new nighttime radiative-enhanced dry-cooling system with cold-side storage that consumes no water and offers higher effciencies than traditional air-cooled designs. Operation of this new system is complicated by the cold-side storage and inherent coupling between the cooling system and power plant, further motivating integrated economic analysis.

  11. Assessment of methane-related fuels for automotive fleet vehicles: technical, supply, and economic assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-01

    The use of methane-related fuels, derived from a variety of sources, in highway vehicles is assessed. Methane, as used here, includes natural gas (NG) as well as synthetic natural gas (SNG). Methanol is included because it can be produced from NG or the same resources as SNG, and because it is a liquid fuel at normal ambient conditions. Technological, operational, efficiency, petroleum displacement, supply, safety, and economic issues are analyzed. In principle, both NG and methanol allow more efficient engine operation than gasoline. In practice, engines are at present rarely optimized for NG and methanol. On the basis of energy expended from resource extraction to end use, only optimized LNG vehicles are more efficient than their gasoline counterparts. By 1985, up to 16% of total petroleum-based highway vehicle fuel could be displaced by large fleets with central NG fueling depots. Excluding diesel vehicles, which need technology advances to use NG, savings of 8% are projected. Methanol use by large fleets could displace up to 8% of petroleum-based highway vehicle fuel from spark-ignition vehicles and another 9% from diesel vehicles with technology advances. The US NG supply appears adequate to accommodate fleet use. Supply projections, future price differential versus gasoline, and user economics are uncertain. In many cases, attractive paybacks can occur. Compressed NG now costs on average about $0.65 less than gasoline, per energy-equivalent gallon. Methanol supply projections, future prices, and user economics are even more uncertain. Current and projected near-term methanol supplies are far from adequate to support fleet use. Methanol presently costs more than gasoline on an equal-energy basis, but is projected to cost less if produced from coal instead of NG or petroleum.

  12. A model to determine the economic viability of water fluoridation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroon, Jeroen; van Wyk, Philippus Johannes

    2012-01-01

    In view of concerns expressed by South African local authorities the aim of this study was to develop a model to determine whether water fluoridation is economically viable to reduce dental caries in South Africa. Microsoft Excel software was used to develop a model to determine economic viability of water fluoridation for 17 water providers from all nine South African provinces. Input variables for this model relate to chemical cost, labor cost, maintenance cost of infrastructure, opportunity cost, and capital depreciation. The following output variables were calculated to evaluate the cost of water fluoridation: per capita cost per year, cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit. In this model it is assumed that the introduction of community water fluoridation can reduce caries prevalence by an additional 15 percent and that the savings in cost of treatment will be equal to the average fee for a two surface restoration. Water providers included in the study serve 53.5 percent of the total population of South Africa. For all providers combined chemical cost contributes 64.5 percent to the total cost, per capita cost per year was $0.36, cost-effectiveness was calculated as $11.41 and cost-benefit of the implementation of water fluoridation was 0.34. This model confirmed that water fluoridation is an economically viable option to prevent dental caries in South African communities, as well as conclusions over the last 10 years that water fluoridation leads to significant cost savings and remains a cost-effective measure for reducing dental caries, even when the caries-preventive effectiveness is modest. © 2012 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  13. Mathematical modeling in economics, ecology and the environment

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    2013-01-01

    Updated to textbook form by popular demand, this second edition discusses diverse mathematical models used in economics, ecology, and the environmental sciences with emphasis on control and optimization. It is intended for graduate and upper-undergraduate course use, however, applied mathematicians, industry practitioners, and a vast number of interdisciplinary academics will find the presentation highly useful. Core topics of this text are: ·         Economic growth and technological development ·         Population dynamics and human impact on the environment ·         Resource extraction and scarcity ·         Air and water contamination ·         Rational management of the economy and environment ·         Climate change and global dynamics The step-by-step approach taken is problem-based and easy to follow. The authors aptly demonstrate that the same models may be used to describe different economic and environmental processes and that similar invest...

  14. Financial Transaction Tax: Determination of Economic Impact Under DSGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Solilová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The discussion about the possible taxation of the financial sector has started in the European Union as a result of the financial crisis which has spread to the Europe from the United States in 2008 and consequently of the massive financial interventions by governments made in favour of the financial sector. On 14 February 2013, after rejection of the draft of the directive introducing a common system of financial transaction tax in 2011, the European Commission introduced the financial transaction tax through enhanced cooperation. The aim of the paper is to research economic impact of financial transaction tax on EU (EU27 or EU11 with respect to the DSGE model which was used for the determination of impacts. Based on our analysis the DSGE model can be considered as underestimated in case of the impact on economic growth and an overestimated in case of the revenue collection. Particularly, the overall impact of the financial transaction tax considering cascade effects of securities (tax rate 2.2% and derivatives (tax rate 0.2% is ranged between −4.752 and 1.472 percent points of GDP. And further, is assumed that the relocation effects of business/trade can be in average 40% causes a decline of expected tax revenues in the amount of 13bn EUR. Thus, at a time of fragile economic growth across the EU and the increased risk of recession in Europe, the introduction of the FTT should be undesirable.

  15. A proposed tool to integrate environmental and economical assessments of products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senthil, Kumaran D.; Ong, S.K.; Nee, A.Y.C.; Tan, Reginald B.H.

    2003-01-01

    An attempt has been made to interpret the outcomes of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) in terms of environmental costs. This attempt ensures the environmental accountability of the products while LCA ensures their eco-friendly nature. Keeping this as an objective, a Life Cycle Environmental Cost Analysis (LCECA) model was developed. This new tool incorporates costing into the LCA practice. This model prescribes a life cycle environmental cost model to estimate and correlate the effects of these costs in all the life cycle stages of the product. The newly developed categories of eco-costs are: costs of effluent treatment/control/disposal, environmental management systems, eco-taxes, rehabilitation, energy and savings of recycling and reuse strategies. The mathematical model of LCECA determines quantitative expressions between the total cost of products and the various eco-costs. The eco-costs of the alternatives are compared with the computational LCECA model. This method enables the environmental as well as the economic assessment of products, which leads to cost-effective, eco-friendly design of products

  16. Health Economics of Dengue: A Systematic Literature Review and Expert Panel's Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beatty, Mark E.; Beutels, Philippe; Meltzer, Martin I.; Shepard, Donald S.; Hombach, Joachim; Hutubessy, Raymond; Dessis, Damien; Coudeville, Laurent; Dervaux, Benoit; Wichmann, Ole; Margolis, Harold S.; Kuritsky, Joel N.

    2011-01-01

    Dengue vaccines are currently in development and policymakers need appropriate economic studies to determine their potential financial and public health impact. We searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, LILAC, EconLit, and WHOLIS) to identify health economics studies of dengue. Forty-three manuscripts were identified that provided primary data: 32 report economic burden of dengue and nine are comparative economic analyses assessing various interventions. The remaining two were a willingness-to-pay study and a policymaker survey. An expert panel reviewed the existing dengue economic literature and recommended future research to fill information gaps. Although dengue is an important vector-borne disease, the economic literature is relatively sparse and results have often been conflicting because of use of inconsistent assumptions. Health economic research specific to dengue is urgently needed to ensure informed decision making on the various options for controlling and preventing this disease. PMID:21363989

  17. Electric vehicle charge planning using Economic Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus; Poulsen, Niels K.; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC) is very well suited for controlling smart energy systems since electricity price and demand forecasts are easily integrated in the controller. Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to play a large role in the future Smart Grid. They are expected to provide...... grid services, both for peak reduction and for ancillary services, by absorbing short term variations in the electricity production. In this paper the Economic MPC minimizes the cost of electricity consumption for a single EV. Simulations show savings of 50–60% of the electricity costs compared...... to uncontrolled charging from load shifting based on driving pattern predictions. The future energy system in Denmark will most likely be based on renewable energy sources e.g. wind and solar power. These green energy sources introduce stochastic fluctuations in the electricity production. Therefore, energy...

  18. CLUSTERS AS A MODEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF SERBIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Laketa

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Insufficient competitiveness of small and medium enterprises in Serbia can be significantly improved by a system of business associations through clusters, business incubators and technology parks. This connection contributes to the growth and development of not only the cluster members, but has a regional and national dimension as well because without it there is no significant breakthrough on the international market. The process of association of small and medium enterprises in clusters and other forms of interconnection in Serbia is far from the required and potential level.The awareness on the importance of clusters in a local economic development through contributions to the advancement of small and medium sized enterprises is not yet sufficiently mature. Support to associating into clusters and usage of their benefits after the model of highly developed countries is the basis for leading a successful economic policy and in Serbia there are all necessary prerequisites for it.

  19. Exergetic and Economic Assessment of Distillation Hybrid Configurations for Bioethanol Refining

    OpenAIRE

    Suleiman, Bilyaminu; Olawale, Adegboyega Surajudeen; Mohammed, Saidu Waziri

    2014-01-01

    Thermo-economics analysis was used to identify the most economic distillation hybrid configuration to dehydrate bioethanol mash (12 wt%) to fuel grade (99.5 wt%) based on economic objective of minimization of operating cost in this work. Three different hybrids of THIDC with azeotropic and, extractive distillation units were assessed using similar feed and product specifications of 1200 kmol/h (12 % by weight ethanol) and 55 kmol/h (99.5 % by weight ethanol) respectively . The six hybrid conf...

  20. A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

    2007-03-01

    The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.