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Sample records for econometrics

  1. Robustness in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Huynh, Van-Nam

    2017-01-01

    This book presents recent research on robustness in econometrics. Robust data processing techniques – i.e., techniques that yield results minimally affected by outliers – and their applications to real-life economic and financial situations are the main focus of this book. The book also discusses applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. In day-by-day data, we often encounter outliers that do not reflect the long-term economic trends, e.g., unexpected and abrupt fluctuations. As such, it is important to develop robust data processing techniques that can accommodate these fluctuations.

  2. Econometrics in R: Past, Present, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achim Zeileis

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Recently, computational methods and software have been receiving more attention in the econometrics literature, emphasizing that they are integral components of modern econometric research. This has also promoted the development of many new econometrics software packages written in R and made available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network. This special volume on "Econometrics in R" features a selection of these recent activities that includes packages for econometric analysis of cross-section, time series and panel data. This introduction to the special volume highlights the contents of the contributions and embeds them into a brief overview of other past, present, and future projects for econometrics in R.

  3. Econometrics of risk

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan

    2015-01-01

    This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

  4. Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Ling, S.; McAleer, M.J.; Tong, H.

    2015-01-01

    __Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time series analysis. The purpose of this special issue of the journal on “Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics” is to highlight several areas of research by leading academics in which novel methods have contrib...

  5. Improving the teaching of econometrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F. Hendry

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We recommend a major shift in the Econometrics curriculum for both graduate and undergraduate teaching. It is essential to include a range of topics that are still rarely addressed in such teaching, but are now vital for understanding and conducting empirical macroeconomic research. We focus on a new approach to macro-econometrics teaching, since even undergraduate econometrics courses must include analytical methods for time series that exhibit both evolution from stochastic trends and abrupt changes from location shifts, and so confront the “non-stationarity revolution”. The complexity and size of the resulting equation specifications, formulated to include all theory-based variables, their lags and possibly non-linear functional forms, as well as potential breaks and rival candidate variables, places model selection for models of changing economic data at the centre of teaching. To illustrate our proposed new curriculum, we draw on a large UK macroeconomics database over 1860–2011. We discuss how we reached our present approach, and how the teaching of macro-econometrics, and econometrics in general, can be improved by nesting so-called “theory-driven” and “data-driven” approaches. In our methodology, the theory-model’s parameter estimates are unaffected by selection when the theory is complete and correct, so nothing is lost, whereas when the theory is incomplete or incorrect, improved empirical models can be discovered from the data. Recent software like Autometrics facilitates both the teaching and the implementation of econometrics, supported by simulation tools to examine operational performance, designed to be feasibly presented live in the classroom.

  6. Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Ling (Shiqing); M.J. McAleer (Michael); H. Tong (Howell)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time

  7. Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Ling (Shiqing); M.J. McAleer (Michael); H. Tong (Howell)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time

  8. Spatial Econometric data analysis: moving beyond traditional models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Florax, R.J.G.M.; Vlist, van der A.J.

    2003-01-01

    This article appraises recent advances in the spatial econometric literature. It serves as the introduction too collection of new papers on spatial econometric data analysis brought together in this special issue, dealing specifically with new extensions to the spatial econometric modeling

  9. Econometric Methodology of Monopolization Process Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitrijs Skoruks

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The research “Econometric Methodology of Monopolization Process Evaluation” gives a perspective description of monopolization process’ nature, occurrence source, development procedure and internal conjuncture specifics, as well as providing an example of modern econometrical method application within a unified framework of market competition analysis for the purpose of conducting a quantitative competition evaluation on an industry level for practical use in both private and public sectors. The main question of the aforementioned research is the definition and quantitative analysis of monopolization effects in modern day globalized markets, while con- structing an empirical model of the econometric analysis, based on the use of in- ternational historical experience of monopoly formations standings, with the goal of introducing a further development scheme for the use of both econometrical and statistical instruments in line with the forecasting and business research need of enterprises and regulatory functions of the public sector. The current research uses a vast variety of monopolization evaluation ratios and their econometrical updates on companies that are involved in the study procedure in order to detect and scallar measure their market monopolizing potential, based on the implemented acquired market positions, turnover shares and competition policies.

  10. Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze.

  11. Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze.

  12. Convolution copula econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Cherubini, Umberto; Mulinacci, Sabrina

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a novel approach to time series econometrics, which studies the behavior of nonlinear stochastic processes. This approach allows for an arbitrary dependence structure in the increments and provides a generalization with respect to the standard linear independent increments assumption of classical time series models. The book offers a solution to the problem of a general semiparametric approach, which is given by a concept called C-convolution (convolution of dependent variables), and the corresponding theory of convolution-based copulas. Intended for econometrics and statistics scholars with a special interest in time series analysis and copula functions (or other nonparametric approaches), the book is also useful for doctoral students with a basic knowledge of copula functions wanting to learn about the latest research developments in the field.

  13. Applied econometrics with R

    CERN Document Server

    Kleiber, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Offers an introduction to the R system for users with a background in economics. This book covers a variety of regression models, regression diagnostics and robustness issues, the nonlinear models of microeconomics, time series and time series econometrics.

  14. Integer-valued Lévy processes and low latency financial econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Pollard, David G.; Shephard, Neil

    Motivated by features of low latency data in financial econometrics we study in detail integervalued Lévy processes as the basis of price processes for high frequency econometrics. We propose using models built out of the difference of two subordinators. We apply these models in practice to low...... latency data for a variety of different types of futures contracts.futures markets, high frequency econometrics, low latency data, negative binomial, Skellam, tempered stable...

  15. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  16. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  17. Behavioral Econometrics for Psychologists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

    We make the case that psychologists should make wider use of structural econometric methods. These methods involve the development of maximum likelihood estimates of models, where the likelihood function is tailored to the structural model. In recent years these models have been developed...

  18. Informatics, Data Mining, Econometrics and Financial Economics: A Connection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractThis short communication reviews some of the literature in econometrics and financial economics that is related to informatics and data mining. We then discuss some of the research on econometrics and financial economics that could be extended to informatics and data mining beyond the

  19. Econometrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.

    1988-01-01

    The 1988 progress report of the Econometrics laboratory (Polytechnic School, France), is presented. Microeconomy is the main research field of the Center. The applications involve the market organization, the national development, the natural resources and the education. One of the research topics is the development of theorems which allow a relationship between economic equilibrium and optimization, for the increasing efficiency economies. Concerning industrial economy, the investigations are also based on the in situ studies and on the socio-economic factors. The research projects include land selling transactions and public regulation activities, the environment management and the obtention of educational means. The published papers, the congress communications and the thesis, are listed [fr

  20. Econometric Methods within Romanian Quarterly National Accounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Livia Marineta Drăguşin

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to synthesise the main econometric methods (including the mathematical and statistical ones used in the Romanian Quarterly National Accounts compilation, irrespectively of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP. These methods are adapted for a fast manner to operatively provide information about the country macroeconomic evolution to interested users. In this context, the mathematical and econometric methods play an important role in obtaining quarterly accounts valued in current prices and in constant prices, in seasonal adjustments and flash estimates of QGDP.

  1. Housing Price Volatility and Econometrics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sunega, Petr; Lux, Martin; Zemčík, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2014), s. 70-78 ISSN 2336-2839 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP404/12/1446 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 ; RVO:67985998 Keywords : econometrics * housing prices * price bubbles Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  2. Object-Oriented Econometrics with Ox

    OpenAIRE

    Kulaksizoglu, Tamer

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the object-oriented features of the Ox matrix programming language. We discuss object-oriented programming in general and give econometric examples coded in Ox. We also discuss some useful built-in classes that come with the Ox distribution.

  3. Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

  4. Parameterized examination in econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinova, Anna; Kyurkchiev, Vesselin; Spasov, Georgi

    2018-01-01

    The paper presents a parameterization of basic types of exam questions in Econometrics. This algorithm is used to automate and facilitate the process of examination, assessment and self-preparation of a large number of students. The proposed parameterization of testing questions reduces the time required to author tests and course assignments. It enables tutors to generate a large number of different but equivalent dynamic questions (with dynamic answers) on a certain topic, which are automatically assessed. The presented methods are implemented in DisPeL (Distributed Platform for e-Learning) and provide questions in the areas of filtering and smoothing of time-series data, forecasting, building and analysis of single-equation econometric models. Questions also cover elasticity, average and marginal characteristics, product and cost functions, measurement of monopoly power, supply, demand and equilibrium price, consumer and product surplus, etc. Several approaches are used to enable the required numerical computations in DisPeL - integration of third-party mathematical libraries, developing our own procedures from scratch, and wrapping our legacy math codes in order to modernize and reuse them.

  5. The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-03-01

    established prices. We also have an estimated equation for an end-use residual category which conceptually includes state grain reserves, other undis...forecasting. An important virtue of the econometric discipline is that it requires one first to conceptualize and estimate regularities of behavior...any de- scriptive analysis. Within the framwork of an econometric model, the analyst is able to discriminate among these "special events

  6. Econometrics of financial high-frequency data

    CERN Document Server

    Hautsch, Nikolaus

    2011-01-01

    This book covers major approaches in high-frequency econometrics. It discusses implementation details, provides insights into properties of high-frequency data as well as institutional settings and presents applications.

  7. The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

    2015-06-01

    The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

  8. Using non-parametric methods in econometric production analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    Econometric estimation of production functions is one of the most common methods in applied economic production analysis. These studies usually apply parametric estimation techniques, which obligate the researcher to specify the functional form of the production function. Most often, the Cobb...... results—including measures that are of interest of applied economists, such as elasticities. Therefore, we propose to use nonparametric econometric methods. First, they can be applied to verify the functional form used in parametric estimations of production functions. Second, they can be directly used...

  9. Development of an expert system in econometrics. Application to energy demand modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauveau, A.

    1993-01-01

    The proper use of econometric softwares requires both statistical and economic skills. The main objective of this thesis is to provide the users of regression programs with assistance in the process of regression analysis by means of expert system technology. We first built an expert system providing general econometric strategy. The running principle of the program is based on a ''estimation - hypothesis check - specification improvement'' cycle. Its econometric expertise is a consistent set of statistical technics and analysis rules for estimating one equation. Then, we considered the inclusion of the economic knowledge required to produce a consistent analysis; we focused on energy demand modelling. The economic knowledge base is independent from the econometric rules, this allow us to update it easily. (author)

  10. Econometric methods for energy planning and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatia, R.

    1989-01-01

    The paper reports on the following: econometric models are often used in energy planning and policy for energy demand analysis at the macro and sectorial levels; estimating income and price elasticities of demand which can be used to analyze effects of growth and price changes; assessing interfuel and interfactor substitutions; forecasting energy demand; and estimating cost functions and forecasting supply. The illustrations in the paper are confined to single equation systems estimated by least squares method as used in analyzing changes in aggregate energy demand and sectorial energy demand. The use of econometric methods is illustrated with the help of empirical studies from a few countries (notably India). 2 tabs

  11. Econometric modeling of the balance of social security Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Isaac Figueiredo de Sousa

    2009-01-01

    This work aims to build models using econometrics techniques to explain the components of the balance of Social Security System, or in other words, the net value of tax revenues and the benefit values of the General Regime of Social Security. These models were subjected to statistic validations indicated in the theoretical reference of econometrics, to apply the method of ordinary least square from the classic model of linear regression. From an increasing longevity and the gradual decr...

  12. Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

    2008-10-01

    Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

  13. Epistemological shell of the econometric findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madžar Ljubomir

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is a continuation of the dialogue relating to the study cited as the first item in the reference list to this article. It contains further comments on that study as well as responses to the authors’ reply to the previously given comments, published in a special issue of the Ekonomski anali cited as the second item of the reference list. The principal issue of this exchange is the treatment of previous non-econometric work in the field of macroeconomic interrelationships and of the corresponding changes in the economy of Serbia. The postulate advanced in this text is the same as the one in the previous critical review of the study by Arsić et al. (2005a and consists in the statement that econometric analysis of empirical characteristics of the Serbian economy should respect and incorporate knowledge accumulated through the use of non-econometric techniques before the study was produced. Econometricians should do that by framing appropriately their maintained hypotheses, by selecting structural specification of the various relations in the model and through interpreting the results obtained in the form of econometric estimates. A number of critical observations are reiterated regarding the way some relations are structurally specified. Among such criticized relations are the model’s production function having imports as the only argument and the import function. Imports are judged as inappropriate in the role of the argument in the production function because they not only contribute to production through technological complementarities but also reduce it through the demand segment of the system, by capturing a good deal of domestic demand and stifling a number of sectors of domestic economy. Imports are financed, among other, by several ephemeral, short-lived sources such as donations, foreign indebtedness and privatization receipts. Imports are therefore not sustainable and their enormous increase within a limited time interval

  14. The Econometric Procedures of Specific Transaction Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doszyń Mariusz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the econometric procedures of identifying specific transactions, in which atypical conditions or attributes may occur. These procedures are based on studentized and predictive residuals of the accordingly specified econometric models. The dependent variable is a unit transactional price, and explanatory variables are both the real properties’ attributes and accordingly defined artificial binary variables. The utility of the proposed method has been verified by means of a real market data base. The proposed procedures can be helpful during the property valuation process, making it possible to reject real properties that are specific (both from the point of view of the transaction conditions and the properties’ attributes and, consequently, to select an appropriate set of similar attributes that are essential for the valuation process.

  15. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  16. Non-standard spatial statistics and spatial econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Griffith, Daniel A

    2011-01-01

    Spatial statistics and spatial econometrics are recent sprouts of the tree "spatial analysis with measurement". Still, several general themes have emerged. Exploring selected fields of possible interest is tantalizing, and this is what the authors aim here.

  17. Essays on nonparametric econometrics of stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zu, Y.

    2012-01-01

    Volatility is a concept that describes the variation of financial returns. Measuring and modelling volatility dynamics is an important aspect of financial econometrics. This thesis is concerned with nonparametric approaches to volatility measurement and volatility model validation.

  18. Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Kunitomo (Naoto); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y. Nishiyama (Yoshihiko)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMoment restriction-based econometric modelling is a broad class which includes the parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric approaches. Moments and conditional moments themselves are nonparametric quantities. If a model is specified in part up to some finite dimensional parameters,

  19. Micro Econometric Modelling of Household Energy Use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2002-01-01

    Presents a micro econometric analysis of household electricity and natural gas demand for Danish households observed in 1996. Dependence between demand for gas and demand for electricity; Separability of demand for gas from demand for electricity; Relation between energy consumption and the age...

  20. Possibly Ill-behaved Posteriors in Econometric Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractHighly non-elliptical posterior distributions may occur in several econometric models, in particular, when the likelihood information is allowed to dominate and data information is weak. We explain the issue of highly non-elliptical posteriors in a model for the effect of education on

  1. Multi-criteria and econometric evaluation of dairy products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karmen Pažek

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the multi-criteria assessment of four dairy products: “Pomursko mlejko” (Pomurje milk, “Lejko mleko” (light milk, “Fyto mleko” (Fyto milk and “Posneto mleko v prahu” (dried milk. The research was executed by using a multi-criteria methodology, DEX, which was complemented by an econometric analysis for light milk to estimate the trends in production and consumption before analyzed dairy products were implemented on the market. DEXi computer program results indicated that all analyzed milk products were ‘above average’. The econometric model was applied to examine changes in the demand for low-fat milk (light milk. Empirical results showed significant consumer re¬sponse to the increase in the prices of low-fat milk demonstrating income elasticity (1,15 unit.

  2. Appendix : airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-19

    This is the Appendix for Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity Report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrai...

  3. Potential of Wolfram technologies in construction and research of econometric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry A. Vlasov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the center of attention of article didactic, applied and research potentials of technologies of the modern knowledge base and a set of computing algorithms Wolfram in creation and a research of econometric models. Econometric models and methods traditionally play a special role in applied mathematical training of students of an economic bachelor degree in Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Within this article experience of forming of content of applied mathematical training of future bachelor of economy and methodical features of use of information technologies in the course of econometric modeling of social and economic situations and teaching subject matters of «The econometrician (basic level» for students of an economic bachelor degree and «The econometrician (advanced level» for students of an economic magistracy is provided. The allocated sixteen tools fully allow to focus attention to development of innovative components of professional competence of future bachelors of economy.

  4. Petroleum products price interactions on the world markets: an econometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maack, Laetitia de; Lantz, Frederic

    2012-09-01

    This study examines the relationship between crude oil and petroleum products prices in the European, Asian and North American markets. We develop an econometric model, based on the long term equilibrium between the prices, which takes into account the changes in the oil product demand trends. We explain price behaviors by the impact of the demand trends. Because the refining industry which transforms crude into petroleum products is a joint product industry, petroleum product pricing is affected by demand trends both in terms of quality and quantity. Consequently, the long term equilibrium between prices, estimated through a co-integration approach, are affected by several structural breaks. We also develop a panel econometric model which simultaneously takes into account the relative prices of ail world products towards one crude. Finally, the different results are compared to the marginal costs derived from an oil refining optimization model. This econometric modeling approach enables a better understanding of the long term equilibrium between prices of petroleum products and crude. (authors)

  5. Using non-parametric methods in econometric production analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    2012-01-01

    by investigating the relationship between the elasticity of scale and the farm size. We use a balanced panel data set of 371~specialised crop farms for the years 2004-2007. A non-parametric specification test shows that neither the Cobb-Douglas function nor the Translog function are consistent with the "true......Econometric estimation of production functions is one of the most common methods in applied economic production analysis. These studies usually apply parametric estimation techniques, which obligate the researcher to specify a functional form of the production function of which the Cobb...... parameter estimates, but also in biased measures which are derived from the parameters, such as elasticities. Therefore, we propose to use non-parametric econometric methods. First, these can be applied to verify the functional form used in parametric production analysis. Second, they can be directly used...

  6. Econometric analysis and energy substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, G.J.

    1981-09-01

    As part of its long-term assessment of new applications for nuclear energy, AECL is becoming acquainted with the techniques of mathematical modelling as used in the areas of energy and economics. Early in 1980, a contract was arranged with DataMetrics Limited of Calgary to prepare an econometric model of the manufacturing sector for Ontario, and to provide AECL with all the information necessary to understand the theory, derivation, and use of the model. This report summarizes the results of this exercise

  7. Forecasting Inflation through Econometrics Models: An Empirical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article aims at modeling and forecasting inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose a number of econometric approaches are implemented and their results are compared. In ARIMA models, adding additional lags for p and/or q necessarily reduced the sum of squares of the estimated residuals. When a model is estimated ...

  8. Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikita V. Artamonov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate, total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates. The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research

  9. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  10. An assessment of econometric models applied to fossil fuel power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, F.; Quercioli, R.

    2001-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to provide a general view of those studies, in which the econometric approach is applied to the selection of fuel in fossil fired power generation, focusing the attention to the key role played by the fuel prices. The report consists of a methodological analysis and a survey of the studies available in literature. The methodological analysis allows to assess the adequateness of the econometric approach, in the electrical power utilities policy. With this purpose, the fundamentals of microeconomics, which are the basis of the econometric models, are pointed out and discussed, and then the hypotheses, which are needed to be assumed for complying the economic theory, are verified in their actual implementation in the power generation sector. The survey of the available studies provides a detailed description of the Translog and Logit models, and the results achieved with their application. From these results, the estimated models show to fit the data with good approximation, a certain degree of interfuel substitution and a meaningful reaction to prices on demand side [it

  11. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  12. Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

    OpenAIRE

    Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

  13. Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

    2013-07-01

    A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

  14. Time Series Econometrics for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    The field of econometrics largely started with time series analysis because many early datasets were time-series macroeconomic data. As the field developed, more cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets were collected, which today dominate the majority of academic empirical research. In nonacademic (private sector, central bank, and governmental)…

  15. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  16. BAYESIAN FORECASTS COMBINATION TO IMPROVE THE ROMANIAN INFLATION PREDICTIONS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Simionescu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models. Therefore, experts’ forecasts are utilized as prior information, for Romania these predictions being provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting (Dobrescu macromodel, National Commission for Prognosis and European Commission. The empirical results for Romanian inflation show the superiority of a fixed effects model compared to other types of econometric models like VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model, dynamic model, log-linear model. The Bayesian combinations that used experts’ predictions as priors, when the shrinkage parameter tends to infinite, improved the accuracy of all forecasts based on individual models, outperforming also zero and equal weights predictions and naïve forecasts.

  17. THE SIMON KUZNETS'S INFLUENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMETRICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyak

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available S. Kuznets's empirical and theoretical researches of the economical growth and economical development, made in 1940 – 1960th, became a main source for upgrading the econometrical models of those processes. The ideas of S. Kuznets gave a beginning for two outstanding directions of the applied literature. The first one deals with the Kuznets's cycles, that have approximately 20 years length period. The second direction appeared after the Kuznets's hypothesis about the unequal allocation of income in a process of economical growth. Kuznets made an assumption, that this inequality growth first and then rolls off. This dependence was named "Kuznets curve". An appearance of new works is caused by creation of new econometrical methods and models (panel data, nonstationarity and by putting forward new theoretical explanations of the phenomenon. Similarly to the original Kuznets curve in the early 1990th "Environmental Kuznets curve" was suggested. After appearance of that concept plenty of econometrical researches were done. On our opinion, the Kuznets's scientific heritage includes great unsolved potential. The usage of this potential will promote a further progress of economical theory.

  18. An econometric model of the hardwood lumber market

    Science.gov (United States)

    William G. Luppold

    1982-01-01

    A recursive econometric model with causal flow originating from the demand relationship is used to analyze the effects of exogenous variables on quantity and price of hardwood lumber. Wage rates, interest rates, stumpage price, lumber exports, and price of lumber demanders' output were the major factors influencing quantities demanded and supplied and hardwood...

  19. Crystal study and econometric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

  20. Recent Developments in Financial Economics and Econometrics: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractResearch papers in empirical finance and financial econometrics are among the most widely cited, downloaded and viewed articles in the discipline of Finance. The special issue presents several papers by leading scholars in the field on “Recent Developments in Financial Economics and

  1. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IBUKUN

    1Onoja, A. O. , 2Achike, A. I. and 3Ajibade, T. B.*. 1Department of ... Bank Data Base (1971-2011) which were subjected to econometric tests before applying the ... workforce is involved in agriculture and the sector makes up 32% of the continent‟s GDP. (Halilu ... solving the problems of unemployment and poverty. One of ...

  2. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. What is mLearning and How Can It Be Used to Support Learning and Teaching in Econometrics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Lucia

    2013-01-01

    The aim of case this study was to analyze the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance) at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher…

  4. The Use of Nonparametric Kernel Regression Methods in Econometric Production Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard

    and nonparametric estimations of production functions in order to evaluate the optimal firm size. The second paper discusses the use of parametric and nonparametric regression methods to estimate panel data regression models. The third paper analyses production risk, price uncertainty, and farmers' risk preferences...... within a nonparametric panel data regression framework. The fourth paper analyses the technical efficiency of dairy farms with environmental output using nonparametric kernel regression in a semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis. The results provided in this PhD thesis show that nonparametric......This PhD thesis addresses one of the fundamental problems in applied econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation of regression functions. The conventional approach to regression analysis is the parametric approach, which requires the researcher to specify the form of the regression...

  5. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  6. Survey on econometric analysis of oil substitute energy; Sekiyu daitai energy keiryo bunseki chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    For the econometric analysis of petroleum substitution energy, a domestic econometric model was developed which can concretely and econometrically grasp and analyze effects of measures taken for environmental policies, energy conservation, promotion of new energy, etc. The model was made so synthetic as to catch a relationship between energy supply/demand and changes of econosocial structures in economic growth, industrial structure, life style, etc. which are extremely important elements for catching future energy demand. The model is composed of a secondary energy price model, a new energy introduction model, and an energy supply/demand model. As case parameters, selected were the price of crude oil, introduction of new energy, GDP and energy conservation, and the following cases were assumed: standard case, high price energy case, new energy introduction promotion case, low economic growth case, energy conservation case, and low energy demand case. The results of simulating each of these cases were indicated. 91 figs., 110 tabs.

  7. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

  8. Development of a long term macro econometric model for strategic analysis and cost assessments in nuclear R and D fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi; Yamazaki, Shigeki.

    1985-11-01

    A Long Term Macro Econometric Model (LTMEMO) has been developed for the purpose of generating economic scenarios for strategic analysis and for cost assessments of technologies in the field of nuclear research and development. The program system of the model is composed of such sub-programs as related social and economic statistic data base and its treatment program, identification and estimation programs of various econometric functions, simulation programs for future projections, and a reference econometric model program. The reference econometric model in the program system would be improved and modified easily by using data base and other sub-programs as the purpose of data retrieval, application of economic hypothesis, and scenario generation. The reference model belongs to a category of such standard types as macro-econometric, deterministic, and descriptive one, however, it was deviated based on the combination of Keynesian theories and Neo-classical theories and was modified by system engineering aspects. The model obtained good performances in such various econometric tests as statistical examinations in parameter estimation of each functions and so called partial tests, total tests, and final tests. Macro economic scenarios α and β, long term projections through 2030 of macro economy in our country were evaluated appropriately by this model. This report describes the process in the development of the model from needs of econometric model in nuclear fields to examples of economic scenarios generated by this model. Some consideration are taken into descriptions on the deviation of each functions and on the application of economic theories for practical use of this program system at the time of modification and improvements of the reference model. (author)

  9. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  10. Short-memory linear processes and econometric applications

    CERN Document Server

    Mynbaev, Kairat T

    2011-01-01

    This book serves as a comprehensive source of asymptotic results for econometric models with deterministic exogenous regressors. Such regressors include linear (more generally, piece-wise polynomial) trends, seasonally oscillating functions, and slowly varying functions including logarithmic trends, as well as some specifications of spatial matrices in the theory of spatial models. The book begins with central limit theorems (CLTs) for weighted sums of short memory linear processes. This part contains the analysis of certain operators in Lp spaces and their employment in the derivation of CLTs

  11. Econometric modeling of health care costs and expenditures: a survey of analytical issues and related policy considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullahy, John

    2009-07-01

    Econometric modeling of healthcare costs and expenditures has become an important component of decision-making across a wide array of real-world settings. The objective of this article is to provide a brief summary of important conceptual and analytical issues involved in econometric healthcare cost modeling. To this end, the article explores: outcome measures typically analyzed in such work; the decision maker's perspective in econometric cost modeling exercises; specific analytical issues in econometric model specification; statistical goodness-of-fit testing; empirical implications of "upper tail" (or "high cost") phenomena; and issues relating to the reporting of findings. Some of the concepts explored here are illustrated in light of samples drawn from the 2005 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Analysts of healthcare cost data have at their disposal an increasingly sophisticated tool kit for analyzing such data that can in principle and in fact yield increasingly interesting insights into data structures. Yet for such analyses to usefully inform policy decisions, the manner in which such studies are designed, undertaken, and reported must accommodate considerations relevant to the decision-making community. The article concludes with some preliminary thoughts on how such bridges might be constructed.

  12. GENERATION AND COST OF THE MEGAWATTS USING ECONOMETRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimundo Juan Lora-Freyre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work was conducted at the Energy Plant "Antonio Maceo" (Renté, in the province of Santiago de Cuba, under the Ministry of Energy and Mining. Aims to study the improvement of the planning process and as field of action the econometric modeling applied to the production of electricity. The overall objective of this research is to develop estimates of electricity generation and its total costs, and the analysis of the influence of production factors, using econometric techniques. In order to fulfill the above objective was used and perfected the "Information System for the Calculation of Production Estimates" (SICEP, which determines the response functions, considering the main factors influencing the electricity generation and its total costs. The results allow to show that the most influential factor in the generation of electricity is the fuel, it appreciated by analyzing the standardized b coefficient that reflects the highest value (0,39. Furthermore, the most influential factor in the total cost of generation is the additive, which shows a coefficient b standardized 0,51. The estimates given show the standard error values almost coincide with the standard deviation obtained in the reporting of error normality. The results will be useful to the process of production planning and securing materials from it. 

  13. Econometric models for biohydrogen development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duu-Hwa; Lee, Duu-Jong; Veziroglu, Ayfer

    2011-09-01

    Biohydrogen is considered as an attractive clean energy source due to its high energy content and environmental-friendly conversion. Analyzing various economic scenarios can help decision makers to optimize development strategies for the biohydrogen sector. This study surveys econometric models of biohydrogen development, including input-out models, life-cycle assessment approach, computable general equilibrium models, linear programming models and impact pathway approach. Fundamentals of each model were briefly reviewed to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. The input-output model and the simplified economic input-output life-cycle assessment model proved most suitable for economic analysis of biohydrogen energy development. A sample analysis using input-output model for forecasting biohydrogen development in the United States is given. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow

    2014-01-01

    : We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

  15. An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1979-01-01

    A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

  16. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  17. Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 31, 2014 : technical summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-31

    This is a technical summary of the Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity main report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with anoth...

  18. What is mLearning and how can it be used to support learning and teaching in Econometrics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Morales

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This research project analyzed the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher detected a clear need for learning support. Econometrics courses are heavily supported by the use of sophisticated statistical software, the availability of which is normally restricted to designated labs in the college. As a result, this project has developed an application that facilitates students’ access to econometrics course work, where a mobile device was used. The main objective of the project was to enable students to bring their course material home with them and use it anywhere, at any time, so that the basic material covered in class could be consulted and reviewed as many times as the students need. The results of this project are very encouraging, as evidence suggests mobile technologies can play a positive role in improving students’ learning experience. Teachers should consider using mobile technologies to support their work in the classroom. In this context, smart phones and PC tablets, the devices used during this study, have proved to be particularly effective. DOI: 10.18870/hlrc.v3i1.69

  19. Econometric models of power prices. An approach to market monitoring in the Western US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barmack, Matthew; Kahn, Edward; Tierney, Susan; Goldman, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Given the limitations of data and resources available for market monitoring in electricity markets where regional transmission organizations (RTO) do not exist, we argue that econometric models of power prices could provide a useful screening tool for market monitoring. To explore its feasibility, we developed several econometric models of power prices at two major trading hubs in the West: Palo Verde and Mid-Columbia. We show that our models explain a large portion of the variation in power prices in Palo Verde and can establish a benchmark that can be used to identify outlier prices that are potentially the result of anti-competitive behavior. (author)

  20. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  1. Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Amaresh

    2010-01-01

    This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

  2. How to decode Unemployment Persistence: An econometric framework for identifying and comparing the sources of persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2016-01-01

    Most econometric analyses of persistence focus on the existence of non-stationary unemployment but not the origin of this. The present research contains a multivariate econometric framework for identifying and comparing different sources of unemployment persistence (e.g. hysteresis versus a slowly...... moving equilibrium rate). A small example, considering historical data (1988-2006) for the UK, demonstrates how the method can be applied in practice. Although this primarily serves as an illustration, the evidence clearly suggests that persistence was due to a slowly moving equilibrium (driven...

  3. Essays on financial econometrics : modeling the term structure of interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, Kees Evert

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation bundles five studies in financial econometrics that are related to the theme of modeling the term structure of interest rates. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new arbitrage-free term structure model that is applied in an empirical analysis of the US term structure.

  4. Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, G.; Kokkelenberg, E.; State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY; Ross, M.; Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI

    1991-01-01

    Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's ''measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this ''engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig

  5. Econometric analysis of the effect of marketing costs on grain prices ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Econometric analysis of the effect of marketing costs on grain prices in Kaduna State of Nigeria. JAL Effiong. Abstract. No Abstract. Journal of Agriculture and Social Research Vol. 6 (1) 2006: pp. 11-14. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  6. Indirect Taxes in Romania – an Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Penu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Indirect taxes have a significant weight in the GDP. Statistical data reveals that the new states that joined the EU in its funding sources to the greatest extent through indirect taxes. They reveal, on the one hand, reducing the tax burden on the producer, and on the other hand, the difficulty faced by the country in direct tax collection, but also some problems of social nature. This article proposes an econometric analysis of the relationship between indirect taxes and household final consumption expenditure.

  7. Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

    1979-01-01

    An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

  8. Teacher Salaries and Teacher Unions: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    OpenAIRE

    John V. Winters

    2011-01-01

    The author uses a spatial econometric framework to examine the determinants of teacher salaries in the United States, including union activity in the teachers' own and in neighboring districts, teacher salaries in nearby districts, and other school district characteristics such as size and student-teacher ratios. Using the 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Survey as well as the School District Demographic System and Bureau of Labor Statistics data sets, he finds that union activity increases sal...

  9. Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Benedictow, Andreas; Fjærtoft, Daniel; Løfsnæs, Ole

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations – covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price and economic policy variables. The model has good statistical properties and tracks history well over the estimation period, which runs from 1995Q1 to 2008Q1. Model simulations indicate tha...

  10. On the rise of Bayesian econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baştürk, N.; Çakmak, C.; Pinar Ceyhan, S.; van Dijk, H.K.

    2014-01-01

    This paper starts with a brief description of the introduction of the likelihood approach in econometrics as presented in Cowles Foundation Monographs 10 and 14. A sketch is given of the criticisms on this approach mainly from the first group of Bayesian econometricians. Publication and citation

  11. A Micro-Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Unsustainable Consumption in The Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2004-01-01

    Recently, much attention has been given to the notion of 'sustainable consumption'. Whereas environmental economics traditionally has focused environmental policy analysis on producers, this new notion broadens the perspective to include environmental policies aimed at directly influencing consumer decisions regarding buying, using, and recycling products. This could suggest policies that link not only to price incentives, but also and especially to persuasive instruments, such as education and information provision. These policies might take into account certain characteristics of households, such as lifestyle and family size. This article presents a first econometric analysis of consumption in the context of environmental sustainability. Relationships between different types of household expenditures and a range of household characteristics are assessed, based on a large micro data set of households for the Netherlands. Use is made of various demand models and econometric techniques to adequately address theoretical and technical issues involved. The article ends with a discussion of the implications of the results for environmental policy directed at stimulating sustainable consumption

  12. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  13. Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

    2001-01-01

    Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.

  14. An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Panduro, Toke Emil

    2015-01-01

    Omitted, misspecified, or mismeasured spatially varying characteristics are a cause for concern in hedonic house price models. Spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects have become popular ways of addressing these concerns. We discuss the limitations of standard spatial approaches to hedonic...

  15. Application of econometric and ecology analysis methods in physics software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Min Cheol; Hoff, Gabriela; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Kim, Sung Hun; Grazia Pia, Maria; Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Saracco, Paolo

    2017-10-01

    Some data analysis methods typically used in econometric studies and in ecology have been evaluated and applied in physics software environments. They concern the evolution of observables through objective identification of change points and trends, and measurements of inequality, diversity and evenness across a data set. Within each analysis area, various statistical tests and measures have been examined. This conference paper summarizes a brief overview of some of these methods.

  16. Econometric Analysis of 2003 Data on the Post-Service Earnings of Military Retirees: Methodology Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mackin, Patrick C; Darling, Kimberly L

    2004-01-01

    ...). This report details how the estimation datasets were constructed from these two data sources and describes the econometric methodology in detail, including the definition of alternative models...

  17. Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

    1998-01-01

    We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

  18. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

  19. ECONOMETRIC METHODS AND MODELS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin ANGHELACHE

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Gross Domestic Product is the most representative synthetic indicator that expresses the evolution of the national economy. This macroeconomic indicator is used in the analysis of the level of the national economy, as well as the dynamic evolution of the national economy. In the forecast studies we rely on GDP evolution. In these situations, we might identify the factors of economic growth, and their influence. On the evolution of GDP have influence some factors: employees, labour productivity, the level of technology, investments and foreign direct investment, imports, exports or net exports, total consumption, and so on. We can analyze the data series and graphical representation. Detailed analysis is performed using econometric methods, parameters which express interdependence, meaning and intensity of correlation. Thus, we estimate the economic developments. The authors studied and proposed some econometric models for the analysis of economic growth/forecast. The novelty is that we adapt some econometric models to macroeconomic analysis.

  20. Heterogeneous trade agreements, WTO membership and international trade : an analysis using matching econometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kohl, Tristan; Trojanowska, Sofia

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the heterogeneous effects of trade agreements (TAs) and World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on the volume of international trade. We extend Baier and Bergstrand’s (2009a) application of matching econometrics by distinguishing between different types of TAs and WTO

  1. Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance; An Econometric Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Stella; Ulrich H Klueh

    2008-01-01

    The financial health of central banks and its relation to policy outcomes has recently been recognized as an important policy issue. While case study evidence clearly indicates that weak central bank finances can hamper effective policy implementation, the question of whether central bank financial strength influences policy performance remains controversial. This is due, in part, to a lack of econometric evidence. The paper presents a first step toward filling this gap, by providing a quanti...

  2. The impact of remittances on economic growth: An econometric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dietmar Meyer

    2017-05-01

    In other words, the econometric analysis will be based on those six remittance receiving countries. The paper is then to review the empirical literature devoted to the impact of remittances on economic growth, in order, to identify empirically if there are significant relationships between remittances and growth in these countries. The results suggest that remittances have a positive impact on growth and that this impact increases at higher levels of remittances relative to GDP.

  3. ECONOMETRICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE INTERDEPENDECE BETWEEN FISCALITY RATE- FISCAL INCOMES- GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

    OpenAIRE

    POPA IONELA; PIETRARU ALINA; CODREANU DIANA

    2009-01-01

    Econometrics has come into being and grown as a result of the need to set up instruments of investigation and increase of the methods to organize, conduct and manage the economy, and on the other hand, due to the successful statistical and mathematical me

  4. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four

  5. Econometric model as a regulatory tool in electricity distribution - Case Network Performance Assessment Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honkapuro, S.; Lassila, J.; Viljainen, S.; Tahvanainen, K.; Partanen, J.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity distribution companies operate in the state of natural monopolies since building of parallel networks is not cost-effective. Monopoly companies do not have pressure from the open markets to keep their prices and costs at reasonable level. The regulation of these companies is needed to prevent the misuse of the monopoly position. Regulation is usually focused either on the profit of company or on the price of electricity. In this document, the usability of an econometric model in the regulation of electricity distribution companies is evaluated. Regulation method which determines allowed income for each company with generic computation model can be seen as an econometric model. As the special case of an econometric model, the method called Network Performance Assessment Model, NPAM (Naetnyttomodellen in Swedish), is analysed. NPAM is developed by Swedish Energy Agency (STEM) for the regulation of electricity distribution companies. Both theoretical analysis and calculations of an example network area are presented in this document to find the major directing effects of the model. The parameters of NPAM, which are used in the calculations of this research report, were dated on 30th of March 2004. These parameters were most recent available at the time when analysis was done. However, since NPAM is under development, the parameters have been constantly changing. Therefore slightly changes in the results can occur if calculations were made with latest parameters. However, main conclusions are same and do not depend on exact parameters. (orig.)

  6. Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

    2001-01-01

    Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration conts are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change

  7. Econometric analysis of the factors influencing forest acreage trends in the southeast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph J. Alig

    1986-01-01

    Econometric models of changes in land use acreages in the Southeast by physiographic region have been developed by pooling cross-section and time series data. Separate acreage equations have been estimated for the three major private forestland owner classes and the three major classes of nonforest land use. Observations were drawn at three or four different points in...

  8. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - An econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J. Nigel B.; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A.

    2010-01-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O 3 , with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O 3 impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O 3 tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. - Econometric study of British winter wheat trial plot data suggests lower economic loss than predicted from experiments.

  9. Econometric Model – A Tool in Financial Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riana Iren RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic situation in Romania requires from the trader a rigorous analysis of vulnerabilities and opportunities offered by the external environment and a careful analysis of internal environmental conditions in which the entity operates. In this context particular attention is paid to indicators presented in the financial statements. Many times they are a model for economic forecasts, future plans, basic business and businesses that use them with a good forecasting activity. In this paper we propose to analyze the comparative evolution of the main financial indicators highlighted in financial statements (profit and loss through a multi-equation econometric model, namely dynamic Keynesian model.

  10. La teoría de la ciencia de Karl Popper y la econometría

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Redman Deborah A.

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available En este ensayo mostraré que la teoría de la falsación ejerció su principalimpacto en los primeros desarrollos de la macroeconomía, quein fortunadamente su impacto a largo plazo no ha sido productivo y que el seguimiento de este desarrollo ayuda a explicar muchos de los actuales escándalos en la econometría y la macroeconomía. Dado que la literatura ha difundido muchos mitos sobre la teoría de la ciencia de Popper, primero revisaré sus teorías de las ciencias naturales y sociales y explicaré por qué la falsación fracasa en ambas ramas antes de exponer la conexión con la econometría.

  11. Econometric Estimates of Army Retention: Zones A, B, C, D and Retirement-Eligible, 1990-2004

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moore, Carole; Hogan, Paul; Kirchner, Christian; Macklin, Patrick C; Greenston, Peter M

    2007-01-01

    .... To improve fit, we generated new econometric estimates by MOS, CMF and Zone using the more recent years of data, and conducted out-of-sample prediction testing to confirm the validity of the updated model.

  12. Econometric model as a regulatory tool in electricity distribution. Case network performance assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honkapuro, S.; Lassila, J.; Viljainen, S.; Tahvanainen, K.; Partanen, J.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity distribution companies operate in the state of natural monopolies since building of parallel networks is not cost- effective. Monopoly companies do not have pressure from the open markets to keep their prices and costs at reasonable level. The regulation of these companies is needed to prevent the misuse of the monopoly position. Regulation is usually focused either on the profit of company or on the price of electricity. Regulation method which determines allowed income for each company with generic computation model can be seen as an econometric model. In this document, the usability of an econometric model in the regulation of electricity distribution companies is evaluated. As the special case of an econometric model, the method called Network Performance Assessment Model, NPAM (Naetnyttomodellen in Swedish), is analysed. NPAM is developed by Swedish Energy Agency (STEM) for the regulation of electricity distribution companies. Both theoretical analysis and calculations of an example network area are presented in this document to find the major directing effects of the model. The parameters of NPAM, which are used in the calculations of this research report, were dated on 30th of March 2004. These parameters were most recent ones available at the time when analysis was done. However, since NPAM have been under development, the parameters have been constantly changing. Therefore slight changes might occur in the numerical results of calculations if they were made with the latest set of parameters. However, main conclusions are same and do not depend on exact parameters

  13. Econometric analyses of microfinance credit group formation, contractual risks and welfare impacts in Northern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berhane Tesfay, G.

    2009-01-01

    Key words
    Microfinance, joint liability, contractual risk, group formation, risk-matching, impact evaluation, Panel data econometrics, dynamic panel probit, trend models, fixed-effects, composite counterfactuals, propensity score matching, farm households, Ethiopia.

    Lack of

  14. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  15. Three essays on the econometric analysis of high frequency financial data

    OpenAIRE

    OOMEN, Roel C. A.

    2003-01-01

    Defence date: 13 June 2003 Examining Board: Prof. H. Peter Boswijk, University of Amsterdam ; Prof. Søren Johansen, University of Copenhagen, Supervisor ; Prof. Helmut Lütkepohl, EUI ; Prof. Stephen Taylor, Lancaster University This thesis is motivated by the observation that the time series properties of financial security prices can vary fundamentally with their sampling frequency. Econometric models developed for low frequency data may thus be unsuitable for high frequency data and v...

  16. Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

    2017-10-01

    Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

  17. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CEREAL DEMAND IN MOROCCO USING THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Essaten

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Following up the agricultural policy in Morocco and enforcing it, the new strategy Green Morocco Plan (GMP launched in 2008 also stressed on the cereals’ supply. Meantime, despite their significant nutritional role, little attention has been paid to the demand side. This paper intends to perform an econometric analysis of the demand of five main cereals - Common wheat, Durum wheat, Barley, Corn and Rice- using a linear version of the flexible Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS model. A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR approach has been applied to the demand system equations with annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2015. At the overall, regular econometric restrictions (stability, structural separability, validity, etc. have been respected our results suggest that the relations of complementarity or substitution are not determining in the cereal bundle in Morocco. Also, the Moroccan consumer behavior is characterized by a strong sensibility towards common wheat price’s changes and by a difficult access for the durum wheat as it is considered as luxury good.

  18. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  19. The Dynamics of Associations and Foundations in Romania. Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelariu Gabriel

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the evolutionary trend of the associations and foundations in Romania in 1997 – 2015 period of time. We know that the NPO's activities come to cover the people's needs which cannot be supported by the state or by the private sector. More precisely, the major roles of the NPO sector are: supporting disadvantaged groups and the social causes, sustaining the role of "watchdog", and promoting the advocacy and public policy expertise. For this reason, we propose an econometric model that will be applied to establish the link between the number of the association and foundations, poverty rate, unemployment rate and the average monthly expenditure per household. We consider that the last three factors are relevant to the country’s social economy and, at the same time, they represent the main objectives of the EUROPE 2020 Strategy - a strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The study is based on numerical data collected over a period of 12 years from 2003 to 2014. For the econometric model, we use IBM SPSS 22 software, in analyzing the collected data. After processing the data we will find a positive and significant relation between the number of associations and foundations (AF, the average monthly expenditure per household and the poverty rate. At the same time, we will find an insignificant relation between the number of associations and foundations and the unemployment rate.

  20. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  1. EXPLANATORY ECONOMETRIC METHOD FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOR MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosca Constantin

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Our paper, entitled "Explanatory Econometric Method for the Analysis of the Behaviour Management in Organizations in Romania" reflects the wide opening of econometric modelling to quantify the Romanian management issues, representing a practical guidance on multiple recovery plans to fund the huge data collected as part COMOR project launched by the Scientific Society of Management in Romania to characterize the behaviour of managers in the Romanian economic organizations. Construction of these models offers possibilities for complex analysis, descriptive and factorial sequence of firms, counties, geographical areas, but comprehensive summary of studies on the macroeconomic level. Scientific knowledge through a comprehensive assessment of managerial behaviour in the most representative types of business organizations of all geographical areas of the country are, in the context of globalization, one way to prevent surprises market economy. Thus, the results of this exploratory research will provide economic environment, and not only strong argument for anticipating decisions in order to choose the best economic policies, with beneficial effects as conclusive and with as few undesirable implications. Research based on the opinions of thousands of respondents approved, processed through a variety of instruments subject of extensive econometric and interdisciplinary interpretation, psycho-socio-economic management, is a modest contribution to the affirmation of local scientific research that aim for theoretical and applied Romanian school of management by defining: - knowledge of behaviour management in all types of business organizations in Romania; - identifying the Romanian space dimensions of organizational culture as a reflection of the peculiarities of national culture and especially of the main ethnic-specific subcultures; - profile defining effective manager and leader of excellence in terms of character traits and their behaviour.

  2. An econometric method for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures : applied to Malawi and Mauritius

    OpenAIRE

    Ehdaie, Jaber

    1990-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric technique that deals with shortcomings of existing methods for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures. This model highlights the roles that discretionary tax measures and economic growth play in effecting the shift from the taxation of international trade to the taxation of domestic transactions. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to develop an econometric method of estimating built-in tax elasticit...

  3. An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

    1982-01-01

    In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

  4. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-01-01

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. - Highlights: • We use an econometric model as a tool for assessing the effects of regional policies on the development of economic activities related to the use of the sea and on the impact on the marine environment. • Through scenario simulation we provide strategic guidelines for policy makers and economic planners • The model features feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas.

  5. An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2008-01-01

    Crude oil, coal and gas, known as fossil fuels, play a crucial role in the global economy. This paper proposes new econometrics modelling to demonstrate the trend of fossil fuels consumption. The main variables affecting consumption trends are: world reserves, the price of fossil fuels, US production and US net imports. All variables have been analysed individually for more than half a century. The research found that while the consumption of fossil fuels worldwide has increased trends in the US production and net imports have been dependent on the type of fossil fuels. Most of the US coal and gas production has been for domestic use, which is why it does not have a strong influence on worldwide fossil fuel prices. Moreover, the reserves of fossil fuels have not shown any diminution during the last couple of decades and predictions that they were about to run out are not substantiated. The nominal and real price of fossil fuels was found to change depending on the type. Finally, estimates of three econometric models for the consumption of fossil fuels from 1949 to 2006 are presented which identify the effects of significant variables

  6. Modelling internal migration in Kenya: an econometric analysis with limited data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, G M; Milne, W J

    1988-09-01

    "In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model." excerpt

  7. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  8. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

    2002-07-01

    Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Econometric analysis of the effects of subsidies on farm production in case of endogenous input quantities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Lien, Gudbrand

    The effect of subsidies on farm production has been a major topic in agricultural economics for several decades. We present a new approach for analyzing the effects of different types of coupled and decoupled subsidies on farm production with econometric methods. In contrast to most previous...

  10. Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance of Selected Asian Countries. An Econometric Analysis of China Economic Growth and Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasret Benar Balcioglu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the key macroeconomics indicators for the selected countries: China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Rep. and India and also makes an econometric analysis for China for the period 1961-2007. These countries are chosen on the basis of comparability of data and time without measurement errors. This study also investigates six hypotheses considering the impact of several key macroeconomic variables such as domestic saving rate, domestic investment rate, and volatility of savings, volatility of inflation, growth rate of exports and growth rate of real GNP. By using suitable statistical and econometric tests, this paper finds that prevailing performance of China depends on its superior rates of domestic saving and exports. Policies are also suggested from the differentials between the economic performances of China and other chosen Asian countries.

  11. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  12. A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

    1980-01-01

    The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

  13. Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

  14. Forecasting the EMU inflation rate: Linear econometric vs. non-linear computational models using genetic neural fuzzy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kooths, Stefan; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Ringhut, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according...

  15. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  16. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  17. DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN PAKISTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS USING JOHANSEN CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Furrukh Bashi; Shahbaz Nawaz; Kalsoom Yasi; Usman Khursheed; Jahanzeb Khan; Muhammad Junaid Qureshi

    2011-01-01

    Inflation is regarded as regressive taxation against the poor. The most visible impact of inflation in recent times is its effect on real output, relative prices, taxes and interest rates. The study focuses to examine demand side and supply side determinants of inflation in Pakistan on economic and econometric criterion and also to investigate causal relationships among some macroeconomic variables. For that purpose, study has undertaken time series data for the period from 1972 to 2010. Long...

  18. Econometric Forecasting Models for Air Traffic Passenger of Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Suryan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation. With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.

  19. Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

  20. Approaches and methods for econometric analysis of market power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Grings, Michael

    2017-01-01

    , functional forms, estimation methods and derived estimates of the degree of market power. Thereafter, we use our framework to evaluate several structural models based on PTA and GIM to measure oligopsony power in the Ukrainian dairy industry. The PTA-based results suggest that the estimated parameters......This study discusses two widely used approaches in the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) literature and examines the strengths and weaknesses of the Production-Theoretic Approach (PTA) and the General Identification Method (GIM) for the econometric analysis of market power...... in agricultural and food markets. We provide a framework that may help researchers to evaluate and improve structural models of market power. Starting with the specification of the approaches in question, we compare published empirical studies of market power with respect to the choice of the applied approach...

  1. Prácticas para el aprendizaje de la econometría avanzada

    OpenAIRE

    Esteban González, María Victoria; Modroño Herrán, Juan Ignacio; Orbe Mandaluniz

    2014-01-01

    En este libro, los autores han recolectado y ordenado el material docente que han elaborado a lo largo de los últimos cursos académicos para la asignatura de Econometría, de la Licenciatura en Economía en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales de la UPV/EHU. Los autores han colaborado en distintos proyectos de innovación docente que han permitido desarrollar la asignatura con aprovechamiento de las TICs, y han participado, entre otras actividades, en programas de innovación docent...

  2. An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veie, Kathrine Lausted; Panduro, Toke Emil

    Hedonic models are subject to spatially correlated errors which are a symptom of omitted spatial variables, mis-specification or mismeasurement. Methods have been developed to address this problem through the use of spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects. However, often spatial correlation is...... varying characteristics markedly. This suggests that omitted variable bias may remain an important problem. We advocate for an increased use of sensitivity analysis to determine robustness of estimates to different models of the (omitted) spatial processes....

  3. Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro-Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassios, Jason; Giesecke, James A

    2018-04-01

    Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty). Assembling shocks describing the physical impacts of a terrorist incident is relatively straightforward, since estimates are either readily available or plausibly inferred. However, assembling shocks describing behavioral impacts is more difficult. Values for behavioral variables (e.g., required rates of return) are typically inferred or estimated by indirect means. Generally, this has been achieved via reference to extraneous literature or ex ante surveys. This article explores a new method. We elucidate the magnitude of CGE-relevant structural shifts implicit in econometric evidence on terrorist incidents, with a view to informing future ex ante event assessments. Ex post econometric studies of terrorism by Blomberg et al. yield macro econometric equations that describe the response of observable economic variables (e.g., GDP growth) to terrorist incidents. We use these equations to determine estimates for relevant (unobservable) structural and policy variables impacted by terrorist incidents, using a CGE model of the United States. This allows us to: (i) compare values for these shifts with input assumptions in earlier ex ante CGE studies; and (ii) discuss how future ex ante studies can be informed by our analysis. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  5. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

  6. Currency Crisis in Sudan in 2012: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alamedin Bannaga, Dr.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Sudan currency crisis in 2012 occurred when the Sudanese pound lost 66 percent of its value against the US dollar. In this article we adopt statistical methods such as the signal approach and econometric methods such as the Probit Model for identifying and evaluating the currency crisis. We utilize some economic indicators that have the ability to predict the crisis. We examined the capability of these indicators in generating an early warning system for Sudan currency crisis. The study confirms that the incidence of currency crisis in Sudan increases by increase in inflation rate, increase in import percentage of GDP, rise in claims against the central government, reduction in external reserves and existence of political crisis. Moreover, the study finds that the most important predictor of currency crisis in Sudan is decline in external reserves.

  7. Assessing the capital efficiency of healthcare information technologies investments: an econometric perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Rodolphe; Degoulet, Patrice

    2008-01-01

    To examine the different methods that can be used in the quantification of the added value of information technologies (IT) in the health care sector. This quantification represents a major issue for decision-makers and health care professionals when they have to plan an IT investment. Articles were chosen via Medline, internet and the University of Geneva bibliographic portal. Some of the papers were obtained directly from their authors. We examine the most current methods used to evaluate IT return on investment (ROI) in the general business and in the health care sector, drawing attention on methods traditionally used in macroeconomic studies that could reveal themselves disruptive for IT ROI impact evaluation in hospitals. Financial and accounting methods can provide interesting data on a specific IT project but are usually incomplete for revealing the global IT investment influence. Econometric methods tend to demonstrate the positive impact of health care IT (HIT) on hospital production and productivity. Hospitals having higher levels of IT investment tend to deliver a higher level of clinical quality and show improved hospital cost performances. Information technologies are so intermingled with people and processes that the identification of specific IT benefit remains questionable. Using macroeconomic tools could be the best way to analyze and compute IT ROI in health care. Econometric tools take into account all types investments (inputs) and all the returns (outputs) enabling the precise measurement of IT investments impact, breakeven points, and possible threshold levels, thus providing helpful intelligence to reach the higher levels of IT governance in hospitals.

  8. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

    2010-05-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. An econometric model on bilateral trade in education using an augmented gravity model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Tay

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Trade in education has become one of the most important trades for many economies. Yet, studies of education as a trade are scant owing to the conventional view of it being non-tradable. The purpose of this paper is to econometrically investigate trade in education using a nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model, one of the most widely used models in international trade in goods that has been scantly investigated on in studies on trade in education.Design/methodology/approach: A panel data analysis is broken down for 21 exporting countries and 50 importing countries, covering 1050 observations using new UNESCO database. A number of determinants of international trade including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer are empirically tested on bilateral trade flows in education. An econometric model is formulated to test determinants of trade in education using an augmented gravity model.Findings: The augmented gravity model used in this study explains with high significance the determinants of trade in education including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer.Research limitations/implications: Taking a macroscopic view of education as a trade may give us a myopic view of the elements important to determine what students or parents of students as well as institutions are concerned with. Nevertheless, the nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model used in this study that are largely and traditionally used on trade in goods and services, but scantly used in trade in education have been found to be highly significant and relevant in trade in education. Future studies on macro-level of analysis involving trade in education could include other determinants of

  10. Econometric Mediation Analyses: Identifying the Sources of Treatment Effects from Experimentally Estimated Production Technologies with Unmeasured and Mismeasured Inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an econometric mediation analysis. It considers identification of production functions and the sources of output effects (treatment effects) from experimental interventions when some inputs are mismeasured and others are entirely omitted. JEL Code: D24, C21, C43, C38.

  11. Econometric modelling of certain nuclear power systems based on thermal and fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavelescu, M.; Pioaru, C.; Ursu, I.

    1988-01-01

    Certain known economic analysis models for a LMFBR fast breeder and CANDU thermal solitary reactors are presented, based on the concepts of discounting and levelization. These models are subsequently utilized as a basis for establishing an original model for the econometric analysis of certain thermal reactor systems or/and fast breeder reactors. Case studies are subsequently conducted with the systems: 1-CANDU, 2-LMFBR, 3-CANDU + LMFBR which enables us to draw certain interesting conclusions for a long range nuclear power policy. (author)

  12. Tourism Economics in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasanna-Perera Lalith Welgamage

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sri Lanka aims to transform its tourism sector into one of the largest foreign exchange earners in 2016 by attracting 2.5 million high spending tourists. Tourism was ranked as the fifth largest source of foreign exchange earnings in 2012, and third largest in 2013 contributing 5.2 percent to total foreign earnings of the country. Further to this, the Sri Lankan government also identified tourism as a major hub of the country’s economy. Given the multi-dimensional impact the sector has on the country’s economy, it has to be examined systematically. This paper develops an econometric model based on the Cobb-Douglas function to analyze the relation between foreign exchange earnings, tourist arrivals, tourist prices, and tourist spending and direct employment in tourism. These variables of tourism are estimated utilizing model parameters such as R-Studio based on data from the sample period from 2002 to 2013. The formula presented in this study can be used by policy makers to calculate future foreign exchange earnings, employment, arrivals and prices related to tourism in Sri Lanka.

  13. Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdonald, J F

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

  14. Estimation of the value-at-risk parameter: Econometric analysis and the extreme value theory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Zorica

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper different aspects of value-at-risk estimation are considered. Daily returns of CISCO, INTEL and NASDAQ stock indices are analyzed for period: September 1996 - September 2006. Methods that incorporate time varying variability and heavy tails of the empirical distributions of returns are implemented. The main finding of the paper is that standard econometric methods underestimate the value-at-risk parameter if heavy tails of the empirical distribution are not explicitly taken into account. .

  15. The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, Martin [Institute for Advanced Studies, Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna (Austria)

    2008-08-15

    We discuss several major econometric problems that have been ignored in the empirical environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) literature thus far. These are: First, the use of nonlinear transformations of integrated regressors and second, in a panel context, cross-sectional dependence in the data. Both problems fundamentally invalidate the use of widely applied time series and panel unit root and cointegration techniques. We use the important special case of the relationship between GDP and CO{sub 2} (and SO{sub 2}) emissions to show and discuss in detail that the seemingly strong evidence for an inverted U-shaped relationship between these variables obtained with commonly used methods is entirely spurious and vanishes when resorting to estimation strategies that take the discussed problems into account. (author)

  16. Econometría Espacial Aplicada a la Agricultura de Precisión

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolfo Bongiovanni

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available La agricultura de precisión se define como la “aplicación de tecnologías y principios de manejo de cultivos para manejar la variabilidad espacio-temporal asociada a la producción agrícola”.El artículo muestra cómo la econometría espacial se puede aplicar al estudio de los datos del monitor de rendimiento para estimar la respuesta del cultivo al fertilizante.En un estudio de caso de fertilización del maíz con nitrógeno en 1998-99 indican: hay autocorrelación espacial y heterocedasticidad en la respuesta del maíz; la respuesta al nitrógeno y las dosis óptimas de nitrógeno difieren en las distintas posiciones topográficas dentro del lote; la dosis variable de nitrógeno es rentable a un costo extra de USD 6 ha-1; la respuesta al nitrógeno y las dosis óptimas por posición en el lote difieren de año en año.Este resultado es interesante y alienta el uso de la econometría espacial en modelos espaciales, como una herramienta efectiva para determinar la rentabilidad de la dosis variable. Se debe tener en cuenta que se trata de un análisis “ex-post”, es decir, se asume que la respuesta del cultivo al N se conoce al momento de realizar la fertilización. A pesar de que la respuesta esperada nunca se va a conocer con certeza, un análisis económico de este tipo es el punto de partida que permite comenzar a comprender las implicaciones del manejo sitio-específico.

  17. Market Failure In African Agricultural Marketing Systems: An Econometric Testing And Analysis Of Market Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Gbolahan S. Osho

    2011-01-01

    The last few years have seen substantial revivals of interest in the determinants of economic growth in Africa, especially in the Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper provides an econometric model that help to examine the impact of market share, interest rate and non-economic factors such as external shocks, structural adjustment policies on the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic development data covering the period of 1970 to 2004 was used in estimation with ordinary least square (OLS). The resul...

  18. The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019

    OpenAIRE

    Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

    2006-01-01

    Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s, its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the country in the design of a state policy drawing the lineaments for reaching the pacification of the country. In the first part I use The Beveridge and Nelson decom...

  19. Transportation and socioeconomic impacts of bypasses on communities : an integrated synthesis of panel data, multilevel, and spatial econometric models with case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    Title: Transportation and Socioeconomic Impacts of Bypasses on Communities: An Integrated Synthesis of Panel Data, Multilevel, and Spatial Econometric Models with Case Studies. The title used at the start of this project was Transportation and Soc...

  20. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH OF HETEROSKEDASTICITY ON FINANCIAL TIME SERIES IN A GENERAL FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FELICIA RAMONA BIRĂU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the diagnostic tests for detecting heteroskedasticity on financial time series. In financial econometrics, heteroskedasticity is generally associated with cross sectional data but can also be identified modeling time series data. The presence of heteroscedasticity in financial time series can be caused by certain specific factors, like a model misspecification, inadequate data transformation or as a result of certain outliers. Heteroskedasticity arise when the homoskedasticity assumption is violated. Testing for the presence of heteroskedasticity in financial time is performed by applying diagnostic test, such as : Breusch-Pagan LM test, White’s test, Glesjer LM test, Harvey-Godfrey LM test, Park LM test and Goldfeld-Quand test.

  1. ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF FIRM’S VALUE IN LIQUID MARKET: CASE OF INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putu Agus Ardiana

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The research aims to investigate variables affecting Tobin’s Q which represents the value of public  companies listed on LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange by developing a  BLUE(Best Linear UnbiasedEstimators econometric model for cross-sectional data of 2007, 2008, and 2009 as well as panel data. The models vary across different data but there are important findings to note. Public companies listed  on LQ45 Index have experienced overliquidity problem during the period of observation leading to a decline in firm’s value. In addition, those public companies have low financial risk so they have chance to  increase their debts especially long-term debts.

  2. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  3. AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEVDA YAPRAKLI

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there is a relationship among foreign direct investment and some of the macroeconomics variables in Turkey. For this purpose for the period of 1970-2006, the relationships among foreign direct investment and GDP, labour cost, real exchange rate, openness and foreign trade deficit are econometrically analyzed by employing multivariate cointegration analysis and error correction model. According to the results, FDI is positively effected by GDP and openness, and negatively by labour cost, real exchange rate ve foreign trade deficit variables. Morever, bi-directional causality is observed among FDI and GDP and real exchange rate.

  4. Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullahy, J

    1998-06-01

    In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

  5. ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostyslav Lytvyn

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.

  6. Determinants of the distribution and concentration of biogas production in Germany. A spatial econometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholz, Lukas

    2015-01-01

    The biogas production in Germany is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution and the formation of regional centers. In the present study the determinants of the spatial distribution and concentration are analyzed with methods of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. In addition to the consideration of ''classic'' site factors of agricultural production, the analysis here focuses on the possible relevance of agglomeration effects. The results of the work contribute to a better understanding of the regional distribution and concentration of the biogas production in Germany. [de

  7. Are happiness and productivity lower among young people with newly-divorced parents? : an experimental and econometric approach

    OpenAIRE

    Proto, Eugenio; Sgroi, Daniel; Oswald, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    High rates of divorce in western society have prompted much research on the repercussions for well-being and the economy. Yet little is known about the important topic of whether parental divorce has deleterious consequences upon adult children. By combining experimental and econometric survey-based evidence, this study attempts to provide an answer. Under controlled conditions, it measures university students’ subjective well-being and productivity (in a standardized laboratory task). It fin...

  8. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

  9. A spatial econometric analysis of land-use change with land cover trends data: an application to the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Lewis; Ralph J. Alig

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a plot-level spatial econometric land-use model and estimates it with U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends (LCT) geographic information system panel data for the western halves of the states of Oregon and Washington. The discrete-choice framework we use models plot-scale choices of the three dominant land uses in this region: forest, agriculture...

  10. An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Zhidong

    2003-01-01

    An integrated econometric model consisting of macroeconomic sub-model, energy sub-model and environment sub-model was developed and used to perform a long-term simulation study for China. In the coming 30 years, the potential of GDP growth will be around 7% annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security, air protection, and CO 2 emission reductions. For the sustainable development, more comprehensive measures should be adopted, including improvements in energy efficiency, more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources, imposing carbon tax, development of clean coal technology, establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling, enforcement of air protection, etc

  11. Energy demand, substitution and environmental taxation: An econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the Danish economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2017-01-01

    in a more environmental-friendly direction. For eight subsectors of the Danish economy, time series (1966–2011) are modeled by means of partial Cointegrated VARs. Long-run demand relations are identified for all subsectors and robust price elasticities are supported in five cases. The results are used......This research contains an econometric analysis of energy demand in trade and industry which allows for substitution between electricity and other energy carriers when relative prices change. The presence of substitution suggests that taxation can be a means of changing the energy input mix...

  12. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  13. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  14. Firing the furnace? An econometric analysis of utilities' fuel choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauchmann, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate how the fuel mix of German electricity producers does react to fuel price changes. The empirical analysis is based on panel data (1968-1998) of major utilities. Two different aspects of fuel choice are distinguished: at the one hand, the construction of usually fuel-specific capacities for electric power generation, i.e. investment decisions that determine the fuel mix in the long run; at the other, fuel use conditional on existing generation capacities, i.e. short-run inter-fuel substitution. According to the results from panel unit root tests, both the econometric models which describe these two aspects are specified in changes rather than levels. The partly discrete nature of investment decisions is taken into account, by constructing a discrete model of capacity adjustment. Our estimation results suggest that the fuel mix of electric utilities is price inelastic either if long-term investment or short-term inter-fuel substitution is considered. Finally, the empirical results are used to predict the potential impacts of CO 2 emissions trading on fuel choice in the German electric power industry

  15. Firing the furnace? An econometric analysis of utilities' fuel choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauchmann, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate how the fuel mix of German electricity producers does react to fuel price changes. The empirical analysis is based on panel data (1968-1998) of major utilities. Two different aspects of fuel choice are distinguished: at the one hand, the construction of usually fuel-specific capacities for electric power generation, i.e. investment decisions that determine the fuel mix in the long run; at the other, fuel use conditional on existing generation capacities, i.e. short-run inter-fuel substitution. According to the results from panel unit root tests, both the econometric models which describe these two aspects are specified in changes rather than levels. The partly discrete nature of investment decisions is taken into account, by constructing a discrete model of capacity adjustment. Our estimation results suggest that the fuel mix of electric utilities is price inelastic either if long-term investment or short-term inter-fuel substitution is considered. Finally, the empirical results are used to predict the potential impacts of CO 2 emissions trading on fuel choice in the German electric power industry. (Author)

  16. Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hache, Emmanuel; Lantz, Frederic

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the oil price volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short-term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of noncommercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices. (authors)

  17. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  18. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL; Lantz, Margaret W [ORNL; Hauser, Katie R [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

  19. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Parallelization Experience with Four Canonical Econometric Models Using ParMitISEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nalan Baştürk

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the parallel computing implementation of the MitISEM algorithm, labeled Parallel MitISEM. The basic MitISEM algorithm provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density using adaptive mixtures of Student-t densities, where only a kernel of the target density is required. The approximation can be used as a candidate density in Importance Sampling or Metropolis Hastings methods for Bayesian inference on model parameters and probabilities. We present and discuss four canonical econometric models using a Graphics Processing Unit and a multi-core Central Processing Unit version of the MitISEM algorithm. The results show that the parallelization of the MitISEM algorithm on Graphics Processing Units and multi-core Central Processing Units is straightforward and fast to program using MATLAB. Moreover the speed performance of the Graphics Processing Unit version is much higher than the Central Processing Unit one.

  1. Kriging Methodology and Its Development in Forecasting Econometric Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Gajdoš

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the approaches for forecasting future values of a time series or unknown spatial data is kriging. The main objective of the paper is to introduce a general scheme of kriging in forecasting econometric time series using a family of linear regression time series models (shortly named as FDSLRM which apply regression not only to a trend but also to a random component of the observed time series. Simultaneously performing a Monte Carlo simulation study with a real electricity consumption dataset in the R computational langure and environment, we investigate the well-known problem of “negative” estimates of variance components when kriging predictions fail. Our following theoretical analysis, including also the modern apparatus of advanced multivariate statistics, gives us the formulation and proof of a general theorem about the explicit form of moments (up to sixth order for a Gaussian time series observation. This result provides a basis for further theoretical and computational research in the kriging methodology development.

  2. Regional distribution of photovoltaic deployment in the UK and its determinants: A spatial econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye; Yildirim, Julide; Connor, Peter M.

    2015-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) panels offer significant potential for contributing to the UK's energy policy goals relating to decarbonisation of the energy system, security of supply and affordability. The substantive drop in the cost of panels since 2007, coupled with the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Scheme in 2010, has resulted in a rapid increase in installation of PV panels in the UK, from 26.5MWp in 2009 to over 5GW by the end of 2014. Yet there has been no comprehensive analysis of the determinants of PV deployment in the UK. This paper addresses this gap by employing spatial econometrics methods to a recently available data set at a fine geographical detail. Following a traditional regression analysis, a general to specific approach has been adopted where spatial variations in the relationships have been examined utilising the spatial Durbin model using the cross-sectional data relating to the UK NUTS level 3 data. Empirical results indicate that demand for electricity, population density, pollution levels, education level of households and housing types are among the factors that affect PV uptake in a region. Moreover Lagrange Multiplier test results indicate that the spatial Durbin model may be properly applied to describe the PV uptake relationship in the UK as there are significant regional spillover effects. - Highlights: • Spatial econometrics models applied to UK PV installation for the first time • Significant regional spillover effects are apparent. • Smaller households in highly polluted, less dense areas are the early adopters. • Strong substitution effect as high electricity spending induces PV installations. • Solar irradiation data are found to be significant.

  3. DETERMINATION OF THE YIELD OF COFFEE IN THE BASIC UNIT OF COOPERATIVE PRODUCTION (UBPC "LA JUBA" THROUGH ECONOMETRICS TECHNIQUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Rodríguez-Betancourt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Economic Program of the VI Congress of Comunist Party regarding the coffee agroindustry as agreement the following posittions: "To impel the development of the coffee activities to contribute to the gradual recovery of the traditional exportable funds". This sense, the process of planning the coffee harvest suggest the improvement of the fundamental indicators of this process. The coffee estimate is a primary indicator of harvest and other important indicators depend from him, among those the coffee production and the determination of other inputs of harvest. The objective of this work is to use econometrics technique, for the calculation of the coffee estimate in the Arabic variety in the UBPC "La Juba", belonging to the Coffee Company "Segundo Frente" It is demonstrated that using the econometrics technique the results comes closer to the real with more precision that the obtained by the  programmer, in 75 %. In a same way it is obtained as a result, the evaluation of the weight that it have in the yields the productive factors. In this case, when reconciling the analysis cost-benefit, with the study of the regression coefficients it was demonstrated that the most incident factor is the denominated Cultural Attentions. 

  4. Econometrics Models for Copper Recovery: A Case Study of North Waziristan-Copper Deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S.; Khan, M.M.

    2010-01-01

    Fourteen econometrics models have been developed to evaluate the effects of various flotation process variables like, Propyl xanthate (X/sub 1/g/tonne), pH (X/sub 2/,) Sodium Cyanide (X/sub 3/ g/tonne), Sodium sulphide (X/sub 4/ g/tonne), Frother (X/sub 5/ g/tonne), Pulp density (X/sub 6/ w/vol), and Conditioning time (X/sub 7/ minute) on the copper recovery YR North Waziristan-NWFP Pakistan. Ordinary Least Square OLS method has been applied as an analytical technique for regression analysis. It has been concluded in this study that model given in equation 7 is best model among all. This equation shows that with the increase of one unit of X/sub 1/, Y/sub R/ will increase 0.05 units keeping all other variables constant. (author)

  5. Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasr, G.E.; Badr, E.A.; Dibeh, G.

    2000-01-01

    This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports (TI), and degree days (DD) on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply. For the 1993-1994 time span, TI is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a negative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995-1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance level. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996-1997 time span also show the significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration analysis for the 1995-1997 and 1996-1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between all variables. In addition, error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally, statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models

  6. Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments

    OpenAIRE

    Firgo, Matthias; Fritz, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share approach. Our application to regional tourism in Austria reveals important results: First, differences in long-run performance between regions are mostly related to idiosyncratic changes in the touris...

  7. Impacts of a carbon Tax on the emissions of car transport in Switzerland: an assessment using an engineering-econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Bertholet, J.L.; Chaze, J.P.; Taffe, P.

    1992-01-01

    It is well-known that road transport is the economic sector most responsible for the growing consumption of fossil fuels in developed countries and, as a consequence, of carbon dioxide emissions largely accountable of the greenhouse effect. Recently, the Swiss Federal Council, as many other European governments, has undertaken to set up an energy policy aiming at reducing CO 2 emissions according to the so-called Toronto targets. Among the different measures that can be used to achieve this objective, special attention has been devoted to the carbon tax as an economic incentive to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Considering motor fuels, such a taxation can lead to a decrease in fuel demand through many mechanisms. Conventional econometric models of energy demand, even when they allow to distinguish short-run from long-run responses of consumption to changing economic conditions, do not consider this engineering description of energy demand. Therefore, they fail to capture the important distinction between demand and supply reaction of energy consumption to energy taxation. The authors present an econometric model built according to an engineering logic which takes into account three possible impacts of a motor fuel tax: on the stock of cars, on their average specific consumption and on their average intensity of use. 5 refs., 2 figs

  8. Young people and alcohol: an econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundborg, Petter

    2002-12-01

    To analyse the determinants of youth drinking behaviour within an economic -theoretical framework. The paper focuses especially on the effects of (a) having parents willing to supply alcohol, (b) living in a single-parent household, (c) having parents who are currently unemployed and (d) having received education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco. A Swedish cross-sectional survey data on 833 individuals aged 12-18 years was used to analyse the effects of the above variables on participation in drinking, frequency of drinking, intensity of drinking and binge drinking. Separate analyses were conducted for beer, wine and spirits. Care was taken in using appropriate econometric methods for the questions posed (negative binomial regression, censored regression and probit regression). Having parents willing to supply alcohol increased frequency (P < 0.05) of beer, wine and spirits consumption, intensity (P < 0.05) of wine, spirits and illicit alcohol consumption, and increased probabilities (P < 0.10) of binge drinking and participation in drinking (P < 0.05). No effects were seen from living in a single-parent household. Having received education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco had a negative association only with intensity (P < 0.10) of beer consumption. Having a father who was currently unemployed was associated with an increased (P < 0.05) probability of binge drinking but a reduced (P < 0.05) frequency of wine consumption. The positive effect of having parents willing to supply alcohol could reflect that these individuals face lower acquisition costs or lower psychological costs in consumption. It could also reflect a price effect, if the individual receives the alcohol free from his or her parents.

  9. An econometric time-series analysis of global CO2 concentrations and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.C.; Labys, W.C.; Eliste, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper extends previous work on the econometric modelling of CO 2 concentrations and emissions. The importance of such work rests in the fact that models of the Cohen-Labys variety represent the only alternative to scientific or physical models of CO 2 accumulations whose parameters are inferred rather than estimated. The stimulation for this study derives from the recent discovery of oscillations and cycles in the net biospheric flux of CO 2 . A variety of time series tests is thus used to search for the presence of normality, stationarity, cyclicality and stochastic processes in global CO 2 emissions and concentrations series. Given the evidence for cyclicality of a short-run nature in the spectra of these series, both structural time series and error correction model are applied to confirm the frequency and amplitude of these cycles. Our results suggest new possibilities for determining equilibrium levels of CO 2 concentrations and subsequently revising stabilization policies. (Author)

  10. Econometric estimation of investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms using hyperbolic distance functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Fabricius, Ole; Olsen, Jakob Vesterlund

    2014-01-01

    Based on a theoretical microeconomic model, we econometrically estimate investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms based on a large unbalanced panel dataset. As our theoretical model indicates that adjustment costs are caused both by increased inputs...... of investment activities by the maximum likelihood method so that we can estimate the adjustment costs that occur in the year of the investment and the three following years. Our results show that investments are associated with significant adjustment costs, especially in the year in which the investment...

  11. On the non-convergence of energy intensities: evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2008-01-01

    This paper evaluates convergence of energy intensities for a group of 97 countries in the period 1971-2003. Convergence is tested using a recent method proposed by Pesaran (2007) [M.H. Pesaran. A pair- wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics 138, 312-355.] based on the stochastic convergence criterion. Main advantages of this method are that results do not depend on a benchmark against which convergence is assessed, and that it is more robust. Applications of several unit-root tests as well as a stationarity test uniformly reject the global convergence hypothesis. Locally, for Middle- East, OECD and Europe sub-groups, non-convergence is less strongly rejected. The introduction of possible structural breaks in the analysis only marginally provides more support to the convergence hypothesis. (authors)

  12. Geographical Network Analysis and Spatial Econometrics as Tools to Enhance Our Understanding of Student Migration Patterns and Benefits in the U.S. Higher Education Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Canché, Manuel S.

    2018-01-01

    This study measures the extent to which student outmigration outside the 4-year sector takes place and posits that the benefits from attracting non-resident students exist regardless of sector of enrollment. The study also provides empirical evidence about the relevance of employing geographical network analysis (GNA) and spatial econometrics in…

  13. Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

  14. An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li ZhiDong [Nagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka City (Japan). Dept. of Management and Information System Science

    2003-09-01

    An integrated econometric model named the 3Es-Model, consisting of macroeconomic sub-model, energy sub-model and environment sub-model was developed and used to perform a long-term simulation study for China. In the coming 30 years, the potential of GDP growth will be around 7% annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security, air protection, and CO{sub 2} emission reductions. For the sustainable development, more comprehensive measures should be adopted, including improvements in energy efficiency, more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources, imposing carbon tax, development of clean coal technology, establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling, enforcement of air protection, etc. 17 refs., 4 figs., 10 tabs.

  15. Applying the Dufournaud econometric model to the determination of the prices dynamics impact over the national economy and over its main vulnerable sectors in connection with the Romanian national economy specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Claudia Serban

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available In economics, a model represents an abstract, formal image of a phenomenon, process or economic system. It is built by symbolically reproducing the economic theory and by getting new information regarding the behavior of the objective being investigated. In economic theory there are several integrated econometric models meant to underline the interdependency between the branches of a national economy by the public utilities services, especially those connected to energy. The present article presents the first results of our efforts of building an econometric model adapted to the specificity of the Romanian economy, that would underline the impact of the prices modification for public utilities on the Romanian economy as a hole, on the competitiveness of Romanian companies and on the inflation.

  16. What drives the change in China's energy intensity: Combining decomposition analysis and econometric analysis at the provincial level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Feng; Zheng, Xinye

    2012-01-01

    We employ decomposition analysis and econometric analysis to investigate the driving forces behind China's changing energy intensity using a provincial-level panel data set for the period from 1995 to 2009. The decomposition analysis indicates that: (a) all of the provinces except for a few experienced efficiency improvement, while around three-fourths of the provinces' economics became more energy intensive or remained unchanged; (b) consequently the efficiency improvement accounts for more than 90% of China's energy intensity change as opposed to the economic structural change. The econometric analysis shows that the rising income plays a significant role in the reduction of energy intensity while the effect of energy price is relatively limited. The result may reflect the urgency of deregulating the price and establishing a market-oriented pricing system in China's energy sector. The implementation of the energy intensity reduction policies in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (FYP) has helped reverse the increasing trend of energy intensity since 2002. Although the Chinese Government intended to change the industry-led economic growth pattern, it seems that most of the policy effects flow through the efficiency improvement as opposed to the economic structure adjustment. More fundamental changes to the economic structure are needed to achieve more sustainable progress in energy intensity reduction. - Highlights: ► We examine the determinants of China's energy intensity change at provincial level. ► Rising income plays a significant role in reducing China's energy intensity. ► Policy effects mainly flow through the efficiency improvement. ► Fundamental structure changes are needed to further reduce China's energy intensity.

  17. Econometric model of intraurban location of emitters and receptors of industrial air pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D. J.; Braid, R.

    1977-02-01

    An econometric model of air pollution for an intraurban location (the Chicago area) is constructed and estimated. The model treats employment and population as simultaneously determined. Exogenous variables are selected to represent transportation infrastructure investments resulting primarily from federal and state decisions. The exogenous variables account for the relative services provided by highways, commuter railroads, rail rapid transit, waterways, and airports. The employment location equations appear to be considerably more successful than those in previous studies. These equations indicate that waterway availability constrains the locational options of most major industrial air polluters; that highway accessibility is a more influential factor in industrial than services location choices; that rail rapid transit accessibility is more important to services than industrial locations; and that major airports attract light industrial development. The success of the employment location equations reflects the importance of disaggregating intraurban modes of transport and of adding to urban location models the local effects of interurban modes of transport such as water and air.

  18. Adoption and compliance in second-hand smoking bans: a global econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Richard; Neumayer, Eric

    2014-10-01

    We examine the determinants governing both countries' enactment of smoking bans in public places and their ability to successfully put these bans into effect. Using a large sample (N = 99-184) of low-, middle- and high-income countries, econometric techniques are used to estimate the influence of several variables on cross-national variations in the adoption and compliance of second-hand smoke laws (2010). We find similarities in the determinants of adoption and compliance. Yet more notable are the differences, with several political economy factors which have a statistically significant influence on countries' level of compliance with existing smoke-free laws in public places found not to consistently influence their propensity to adopt bans in the first place. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are that governments are motivated to adopt smoking bans for reasons other than protecting the health of their citizens and that the real costs of smoking bans are predominantly borne at the compliance stage. More effort needs to be made to ensure that governments realize their existing policy commitments through effective enforcement of bans.

  19. Econometric models for distinguishing between market-driven and publicly-funded energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, Marvin J.

    2005-01-01

    Central to the problem of estimating energy program benefits is the necessity to differentiate between changes in energy use that would have occurred in the absence of public programs versus declines in energy use that would not have occurred but for public programs. The former changes are often referred to as naturally-occurring or market-driven effects. They occur due to a combination of one or more independent variables, such as changes in prices, incomes, weather, and technology. For a rigorous, scientifically-valid program evaluation, it is essential to first control for these variables before making statistical inferences related to public program effects. This paper describes the economic and statistical issues surrounding quantitative studies of energy use, energy efficiency, and public programs. To illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of different impact evaluation approaches, this paper describes three new studies related to electricity use in the U. S. commercial buildings sector. Specification and estimation of time series and cross section econometric models are discussed, as are their capabilities for obtaining long-run estimates of the net impacts of energy efficiency programs

  20. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  1. Essays in financial economics and econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Spada, Gabriele

    Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the

  2. Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katikireddi, Srinivasa V; Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

    2014-06-01

    Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the 'Sheffield model'). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders' views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the 'real life' world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

  3. An assessment of econometric models applied to fossil fuel power generation; Un'analisi critica dell'applicazione dei modelli econometrici alla generazione termoelettrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gracceva, F.; Quercioli, R. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    The main purpose of this report is to provide a general view of those studies, in which the econometric approach is applied to the selection of fuel in fossil fired power generation, focusing the attention to the key role played by the fuel prices. The report consists of a methodological analysis and a survey of the studies available in literature. The methodological analysis allows to assess the adequateness of the econometric approach, in the electrical power utilities policy. With this purpose, the fundamentals of microeconomics, which are the basis of the econometric models, are pointed out and discussed, and then the hypotheses, which are needed to be assumed for complying the economic theory, are verified in their actual implementation in the power generation sector. The survey of the available studies provides a detailed description of the Translog and Logit models, and the results achieved with their application. From these results, the estimated models show to fit the data with good approximation, a certain degree of interfuel substitution and a meaningful reaction to prices on demand side. [Italian] In questo rapporto viene tracciato un quadro generale degli studi che utilizzano modelli econometrici per analizzare la scelta dei combustibili nella termogenerazione, con particoalre attenzione al ruolo svolto dal prezzo dei combustibili. La trattazione si compone di un'analisi di tipo metodologico e di una rassegna della letteratura. L'analisi metodologica consente di valutare l'adeguatezza dell'approccio econometrico nell'analisi del comportamento delle imprese di generazione elettrica. A tal fine vengono esplicitati e discussi i fondamenti microeconomici su cui poggiano i modelli econometrici, e viene verificata la sussistenza, nel settore termoelettrico, delle ipotesi che e' necessario assumere per soddisfare la teoria economica. La rassegna fornisce invece una descrizione dei modelli translog e logit lineare, ed un

  4. An econometric investigation of impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil carbon and yield risk: A potential for climate change mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Kato, Edward; Nkonya, Ephraim; Place, Frank; Mwanjalolo, Majaliwa

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil carbon stocks and also impacts of soil carbon on the mean and variance of crop production using econometric tools. Using a cross-sectional plot-level dataset collected from three agroecological zones of Uganda with soil carbon measured at a depth of 0 to 15 centimeters, our results have robustly shown that irrigation, fertilizers, improved fallow, crop residues, mulching, and trash lines are positively and significant...

  5. Analysis of Regional Unemployment in Russia and Germany: Spatial-Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Vyacheslavovna Semerikova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation, grant No.11.G34.31.0059. This paper analyzes the regional unemployment in Russia and Germany in 2005-2010 and addresses issues of choosing the right specification of spatial-econometric models. The analysis based on data of 75 Russian and 370 German regions showed that for Germany the choice of the spatial weighting matrix has a more significant influence on the parameter estimates than for Russia. Presumably this is due to stronger linkages between regional labor markets in Germany compared to Russia. The authors also proposed an algorithm for choosing between spatial matrices and demonstrated the application of this algorithm on simulated Russian data. The authors found that 1 the deviation of the results from the true ones increases when the spatial dependence between regions is higher and 2 the matrix of inverse distances is more preferable than the boundary one for the analysis of regional unemployment in Russia (because of the lower value of the mean squared error. The authors are also planning to apply the proposed algorithm for simulated data of Germany. These results allow accounting the spatial dependence more correctly when modeling regional unemployment which is very important for making proper regional policy

  6. California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibegbulam, B.N.

    1991-01-01

    Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase

  7. Inequality, race, and mortality in U.S. cities: a political and econometric review of Deaton and Lubotsky (56:6, 1139-1153, 2003).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Michael; Robinson, Dean E

    2009-06-01

    Our replication of Deaton and Lubotsky's [(2003). Mortality, inequality and race in American cities and states. Social Science & Medicine, 56.] study "Mortality, Inequality and Race in American Cities and States" identifies a coding error in the econometric analysis in the original paper. Correcting the error changes the basic results of the paper with respect to inequality and mortality in a relevant and substantive way. We also propose an alternative interpretation of the other main result of the paper regarding racial composition and mortality.

  8. Self-insurance and worksite alcohol programs: an econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenkel, D S

    1997-03-01

    The worksite is an important point of access for alcohol treatment and prevention, but not all firms are likely to find offering alcohol programs profitable. This study attempts to identify at a conceptual and empirical level factors that are important determinants of the profitability of worksite alcohol programs. A central question considered in the empirical analysis is whether firms' decisions about worksite alcohol programs are related to how employee group health insurance is provided. The data used are from the 1992 National Survey of Worksite Health Promotion Activities (N = 1,389-1,412). The econometric analysis focuses on measures of whether the surveyed firms offer Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs), individual counseling, group classes and resource materials regarding alcohol and other substance abuse. Holding other factors constant, the probability that a self-insured firm offers an EAP is estimated to be 59%, compared to 51% for a firm that purchases market group health insurance for its employees. Unionized worksites and larger worksites are also found to be more likely to offer worksite alcohol programs, compared to nonunionized smaller worksites. Worksites with younger work-forces are less likely than those with older employees to offer alcohol programs. The empirical results are consistent with the conceptual framework from labor economics, since self-insurance is expected to increase firms' demand for worksite alcohol programs while large worksite is expected to reduce the average program cost. The role of union status and workforce age suggests it is important to consider workers' preferences for the programs as fringe benefits. The results also suggest that the national trend towards self-insurance may be leading to more prevention and treatment of worker alcohol-related problems.

  9. Demand for natural gas: residential and commercial markets in Ontario and British Columbia. [Econometric-model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, E R [Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver; Watkins, G C

    1977-02-01

    An econometric model is used to project natural gas demand in the residential and commercial market sectors. The model specification is a generalization of one developed by Balestra and Nerlove (Econometrica, 34: 585-612(1966)). Demand that is potentially variable because it is not committed to past investments (flexibe demand) is distinguished from demand that is inflexible because it is tied to existing equipment stocks (captive demand). Attention is focused on the effect of temperature variations on gas demand. The nonlinear equation system is estimated by a maximum-likelihood method, using annual data for British Columbia and Ontario during the period of 1959 to 1974. Results show that only in the long run does price have a significant impact on demand. The model is applicable for medium-term policy simulation, but is limited to natural gas fuel. 15 references.

  10. The Evaluation of Efficiency of Production Management at Forestry Enterprise: Experience with Discriminantal and Applied Econometric Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilko Andriy D.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The publication is aimed at coverage of the results of a study on existing approaches to the setting and solving the task of evaluation and analysis of efficiency of management of production processes at forestry enterprises, as well as implementation and development (in line with the industry specificity of the previously proposed approach to evaluating, analyzing and forecasting the efficiency of management of the production process by means of development and application of the economic-mathematical modeling capabilities. A study on the efficiency of the production process management and the usage of enterprise’s basic production assets has been conducted with application of discriminantal and simultative econometric models. Further development of the proposed approach could provide an additional methodical basis for planning activities to improve the management of production at forestry enterprises.

  11. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  12. THE ECONOMETRICS OF THE FORECASTING OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES, A MAIN COMPONENT OF THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper intends to emphasise the importance of budget resources forecasting for long periods of time, within thefinancial management. An as accurate as possible forecasting of the volume of financial resources will represent the basis forthe future projections of the expenditure of local communities, as they are regulated by law, knowing that one of the principlesrepresenting the basis of budget making is that of the balanced budget. To the same extent, the volume of the budget liquiditieswill depend on the rigorousness of the design of the volume of financial resources.. Beyond the abstract character of themathematic calculus made by specialists in econometrics, the financial manager is also interested to know the forecastingtechniques so that he/she can draw up the income and expenditure budget, the basis for the implementation of the economicsocialdevelopment strategies of the local communities. The financial management remains a fundamental component of thepublic management through the theoretical-methodological arsenal made available for the loan officer.

  13. Existing agricultural ecosystem in China leads to environmental pollution: an econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongdou, Lei; Shiping, Li; Hao, Li

    2018-06-17

    Sustainable agriculture ensures food security and prevents starvation. However, the need to meet the increasing food demands of the growing population has led to poor and unsustainable agricultural practices, which promote environmental degradation. Given the contributions of agricultural ecosystems to environmental pollution, we investigated the impact of the agricultural ecosystem on environmental pollution in China using time series data from 1960 to 2014. We employed several methods for econometric analysis including the unit root test, Johansen test of cointegration, Granger causality test, and vector error correction model. Evidence based on the long-run elasticity indicates that a 1% increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent to nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will increase the emissions of CO 2 by 1.52% in the long run. Similarly, a 1% increase in the area of harvested rice paddy, cereal production, biomass of burned crop residues, and agricultural GDP will increase the carbon dioxide emissions by 0.85, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.22%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among the selected variables considered for the agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, we identified bidirectional causal associations between CO 2 emissions, biomass of burned crop residues, and cereal production. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

  14. Consumers and experts. An econometric analysis of the demand for water heaters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Soest, A.; Bartels, R.; Fiebig, D.G.

    2003-01-01

    Consumers can accumulate product information on the basis of a combination of searching, product advertising and expert advice. Examples of experts who provide product information include doctors advising patients on treatments, motor mechanics diagnosing car problems and recommending repairs, accountants recommending investment strategies, and plumbers making recommendations on alternative water heaters. In each of these examples, the transactions involve the sale of goods and services where the seller is at the same time an expert providing advice on the amount and type of product or service to be purchased. In the case of water heaters, the plumber advising a consumer on their choice of water heater will most likely also install the appliance. Because of the information asymmetry there is potentially a strategic element in the transmission of information from expert to consumer. This paper reports on an econometric investigation of the factors that determine the choices made by consumers and the recommendations made by plumbers and the extent to which plumbers act in the best interests of their customers. The empirical work is made possible by the availability of stated preference data generated by designed experiments involving separate samples of Australian consumers and plumbers. We find some evidence that plumbers have higher preferences than consumers for heater characteristics that increase their profit margin

  15. Econometric Analysis of Effects of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Usage on Tomato Yield in Tokat, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilge Gözener

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the effects of nitrogen fertilizer application on tomato yield by using econometric models. The data obtained by questionnaire from 53 farmers who produce tomatoes in Tokat province constitute the main material of the study. The Simple Random Sampling Method was used to determine the sample size with a 90% confidence interval and 10% margin of error. Nine models were tried to determine the best model to explain the effect of nitrogenous fertilizer usage in tomato cultivation. The data in the models were used to calculate the growers’ optimal fertilizer amount of use (physical optimum and economical optimum values were calculated and the results were compared to the ones suggested by the experts. As a result, through the statistical studies, quadratic model was found to be the most suitable one. It has been determined that tomato farmers use less (10.54 kg da-1 or excess (23.48 kg da-1 N fertilizer than the level at which economic optimum is achieved.

  16. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  17. Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

    1977-03-01

    The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

  18. Energy efficiency and econometric analysis of broiler production farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidari, M.D.; Omid, M.; Akram, A.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the energy consumption per 1000 bird for the broiler production in Yazd province, Iran. The data were collected from 44 farms by using a face-to-face questionnaire method during January–February 2010. The collected information was analyzed using descriptive statistics, economic analysis and stochastic frontier production function. The production technology of the farmer was assumed to be specified by the Cobb–Douglas (CD) production function. Total input energy was found to be 186,885.87 MJ (1000 bird) −1 while the output energy was 27,461.21 MJ (1000 bird) −1 . The values of specific energy and energy ratio were calculated at 71.95 MJ kg −1 and 0.15, respectively. The sensitivity of energy inputs was estimated using the marginal physical productivity (MPP) method. The MPP value showed the high impact of human labor and machinery energy inputs on output energy. Returns to scale (RTS) values for broiler were found to be 0.96; thus, there prevailed a decreasing RTS for the estimated model. The net return was found positive, as 1386.53 $ (1000 bird) −1 and the benefit to cost ratio from broiler production was calculated to be 1.38. The study revealed that production of meat was profitable in the studied area. -- Highlights: ► We determined the energy use efficiency (EUE) for the broiler production as 0.15, indicating inefficiency use of energy in these farms. ► Total input and output energies were found to be 186,885.87 MJ (1000 bird) −1 and 27,461.21 MJ (1000 bird) −1 , respectively. ► Cobb–Douglas (CD) frontier production function was found useful in developing econometric model for broiler production. ► The results of budgetary analysis indicate production of meat in broiler farms is profitable in the studied area.

  19. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) – some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-01-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the ...

  20. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  1. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-11-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

  2. An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gan, Peck Yean; Li, ZhiDong

    2008-01-01

    We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

  3. An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

  4. FORECAST PRODUCTION COSTS SUGAR IN THE PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA THROUGH ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Rodríguez-Betancourt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The conformation at the present time, of an economic model renovated in Cuba, it should be based in the efficient use of the productive factors which it counts the country, with emphasis in the substitution of imports. In the chapter VII, article 184 of the Limits of the Economic and Social Politics of the Party and the Revolution it can be read: "To prioritize, in short term, the substitution of imports of those foods that can be produced efficiently in the country; also it will owe to multiply the application of the results of the science and the technique."1 In fact the objective of the present investigation, using econometrics technical to carry out presage of the cost of sugar production, using factors in the productive process: days of harvest, use of the potential, recovered capacity and industrial yield. The results indicate  that the factor with more influences in the decrease of the costs is the industrial yield. It is also obtained a cost presage for the county Santiago de Cuba in different harvest stages that oscillates between $372,45 and 517,52 and it stops extreme values of $ 303,21 and $ 777,6. 

  5. The Impact of the 2008 Credit Crisis on the Sugarcane Sector: A Study Econometric

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia de Castro Camioto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The sugarcane industry contributes approximately 2% to the Brazilian GDP, and generates more than 600,000 jobs in nearly a thousand cities. This study aims to determine the main variables that affect the growth of the Brazilian sugarcane sector. For this, econometric techniques were used to quantify the impact of each variable studied in the growth of Gross Domestic Product in this sector from 1980 to 2013. A specific analysis of the impact of the 2008 credit crisis on growth this sector was also performed. The results showed that the variables that impact the growth of Brazilian sugarcane industry are: exchange rate, fuel alcohol consumption, and the average price of a barrel of petroleum. Moreover, it was found that the 2008 crisis contributed negatively to the GDP of this sector. It was possible to conclude that the crisis in this sector had its origin in the optimism in this sector, due to the growth of the sector in 2006 and the global factors in 2008, which was reflected in variables such as exchange rate and the consumption of alcohol fuel, that negatively impacted the sector.

  6. Quality competition in local hospital markets: some econometric evidence from the period 1982-1988.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirikos, T N

    1992-05-01

    This study examines whether American hospitals continued to engage in non-price or quality competition over the recent past as health care markets underwent fundamental structural changes and the economic incentives facing hospital managers were correspondingly altered. It also investigates the degree to which such rivalrous behavior contributes to losses in economic welfare. An econometric model of quality competition is specified that tests, among other things, for the effect of spending by the hospital to enhance the quality of output on annual changes in its share of the local (inpatient) market as well as the effects of competitive conditions in the local market on the annual sum spent on quality enhancement. The model is estimated with panel data on 195 acute care hospitals in the State of Florida for the years 1982-1988. The results suggest that quality competitive behavior continued unabated over this period and that it was stimulated as much by the growth in physician supply and alternative delivery mechanisms as it was by other competing hospitals in the local market. Furthermore, the results show that quality competition yields some inefficiency or waste, but much of it also meets the test of the market.

  7. The economic viability of value-based food chain for dairy farms in mountain regions: an econometric analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jernej Prišenk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The attention of this paper is drawn to analyze the economic potential of involvement of farmers into the small-medium sized value-based food chain (VBFC. The survey represents a solid dana basis from which econometric modelling approach was further developed. Empirical results reveal the positive economic viability on a general level; this means more stable purchase price of raw milk for dairy farms, which are the part of value-based food chain. Results point at inelastic demand for milk and milk related products. Furthermore, there are some accompanying and underlying indirect social benefits, such as production of high-quality food products, more stable and constant demand for raw milk, steady payments and better social situation. The last one is especially important for the farms operating in less-favored mountain areas where the survey was actually conducted.

  8. An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gan, Peck Yean [Department of Engineering-Energy and Environment Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan); Li, ZhiDong [Department of Management and Information System Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan)

    2008-02-15

    We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

  9. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soocheol Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan’s emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

  10. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  11. Spatial Econometric Research on the Relationship between Highway Construction and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Nationwide Panel Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, N. J.; Li, W. J.; Li, Y.; Bai, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    Based on spatial panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway construction and regional economic growth by means of spatial econometric model. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation on regional economic growth in China, and strong spatial dependences between some provinces and cities appear, specifically, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas show high-high agglomeration trend, the Pearl River Delta region presents high-low agglomeration trend; In terms of nationwide provinces and municipalities, a province’s highway construction investment for their own province and the neighboring provinces has pulling effect on economic growth to a certain extent, and the direct effect is more obvious.

  12. SUSTAINING PADDY SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND LAND DEMANDS IN SABAH, MALAYSIA: A STRUCTURAL PADDY AND RICE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Kelly_Kai_Seng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to construct an econometric commodity model in order to forecast the long term rice production performance of the state of Sabah, Malaysia. The baseline projection shows that the Sabah rice self-sufficiency is estimated to achieve approximately38% in the next 10 years due to the scarcity of the suitable land bank allocate for paddy cultivation. In order to achieve 60% of targeted rice self-sufficiency level (SSL, the size of land for paddy cultivation must be increased in Sabah. Based on the scenario simulation projection result, the expansion of paddy cultivation area will contribute a positively to the industrial rice production and consequently achieving the expected 60% of SSL by the end of 2024. In a nutshell, the state government of Sabah possess state autonomy on the land management, thus the state government plays a significant key role on promoting the local rice self-sufficiency level in the long-term period

  13. Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serje, Juliana; Bertram, Melanie Y; Brindley, Callum; Lauer, Jeremy A

    2018-01-01

    Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

  14. Quality based payment program and milk quality in dairy cooperatives of Southern Brazil: an econometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Garcia Botaro

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Programs designed to enhance milk quality have been used to motivate dairy farmers to improve the quality of the raw milk they produce. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between a milk quality payment program and four indicative variables of milk quality, by testing bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC, bulk tank total bacterial count (TBC, fat (FAT and protein (PROT percentages over three years in four dairy cooperatives in Southern Brazil. We used a multiple regression econometric model estimated from market data of milk delivered by farmers to the cooperatives. Bulk tank milk samples (n = 19,644 were monthly collected. The data set was analyzed for the effects of seasonality, average daily volume of milk, the award/penalty, producer, and cooperatives on SCC, TBC, FAT and PROT. Results suggested an association between the adoption of a payment program based on milk quality and the reduction of SCC and TBC. Nevertheless, the program seems to have not contributed to increase fat and protein milk percentages. This information may help the dairy industry in developing countries to conceive strategies to enhance overall milk quality.

  15. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China – An econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. - Highlights: • We examine the impacts of the surface ozone exposure on winter wheat yield in China. • An econometric method is used to measure the ozone impacts. • The results conclude that surface ozone is harmful to winter wheat yield in China. • We confirm that stress conditions such as drought and air particles can mitigate the adverse effect of ozone. - Surface ozone pollution is harmful to winter wheat yield in China by considering socio-economic determinants, weather, and other stress conditions like drought and air particles.

  16. The core determinants of health expenditure in the African context: some econometric evidence for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthy, Vasudeva N R; Okunade, Albert A

    2009-06-01

    This paper, using cross-sectional data from 44 (83% of all) African countries for year 2001, presents econometric model estimates linking real per-capita health expenditure (HEXP) to a host of economic and non-economic factors. The empirical results of OLS and robust LAE estimators indicate that real per-capita GDP (PRGDP) and real per-capita foreign aid (FAID) resources are both core and statistically significant correlates of HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that health care in the African context is technically, a necessity rather than a luxury good (for the OECD countries). This suggests that the goal of health system in Africa is primarily 'physiological' or 'curative' rather than 'caring' or 'pampering'. The positive association of HEXP with FAID hints that external resource inflows targeting health could be instrumental for spurring economic progress in good policy environments. Most African countries until the late 1990s experienced economic and political instability, and faced stringent structural adjustment mandates of the major international financial institution lenders for economic development. Therefore, our finding a positive effect of FAID on HEXP could suggest that external resource inflows softened some of the macroeconomic fiscal deficit impacts on HEXP in the 2000s. Policy implications of country-specific elasticity estimates are given.

  17. How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karanfil, Fatih

    2009-01-01

    During the last three decades, following closely the developments in econometric theory, energy and environmental economists have empirically examined the energy-income nexus for different countries and time periods. However, today, in spite of the growing interest in this area, the state of knowledge is still controversial and unsettled. This viewpoint paper attempts to highlight some of the issues related to the existing literature on the long-run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth. In particular, it discusses how it is difficult to make policy recommendations on the basis of inconsistent and conflicting results in the published literature on the subject. In order to do so, the paper first illustrates the increasing trend in the number of studies published in this area providing also a brief comparison of the conventional methods used to estimate the energy-income nexus. It then deals with new directions and different viewpoints on the same issue

  18. An econometric analysis of a regional power company and evaluation of its investment policies by using optimal control technique: The case of New York State Electric and Gas Corporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guney, Esat Serhat

    1997-12-01

    This study, in its first part, explores the basic parameters of a power market in a utility district. The analysis of this market, naturally, includes a demand and a supply side and the interactions between the two. The econometric model is built to simulate the system of operations of one specific utility company, namely NYSEG (New York State Electric & Gas Corporation), one of seven major Investor-Owned-Utility Companies in New York State. The company serves about 17,000 square miles, or more than one third of the state's land, and one tenth of its population. The study uses time-series data covering 1960 to 1994 for more than fifty variables. The econometric analysis performs both single equation and system estimations and yields short-run vs. long-run and direct vs. total elasticity estimates, which are crucial for any producer in the market place. In the second part of this research, an optimal control procedure is used to evaluate NYSEG's investment policies retrospectively. For control calculations, a simplified linear version of the system of equations is used. Due to its constrained nature (both by being linear and having low degrees of freedom), the optimal control component mainly serves as an educational tool in microeconomic modeling. Lastly, we performed Exploratory Data Analysis for the data we employed. This was done to justify the use of certain parametric test procedures performed in the process basically by checking whether the implicit assumptions of normality and the randomness hold.

  19. Peer influences on drug self-administration: an econometric analysis in socially housed rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitz, Geoffrey W; Strickland, Justin C; Pitts, Elizabeth G; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A

    2013-04-01

    Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine the social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, under conditions where the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e. quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs.

  20. Determinants of Debt: An Econometric Analysis Based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalis Petrides

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This work is based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances (CySCF and focuses on the investigation of home secured loans and consumer credit card outstanding balances among Cypriot families. The CySCF runs on a triennial basis with the first database created in 1999 (CySCF1999. According to CySCF1999 and CySCF2002, the overall participation in home secured debt among all families declined from 29.95% in 1999 and 29.77% in 2002 to 25.77% in 2005 (CySCF2005. Credit cards were introduced in the early 1980s and grew significantly during the 1990s. The overall percentage of Cypriot households holding credit cards is estimated at 41.7% for 1999, 50% for 2002, and 48% for 2005. This work deals with the econometric analysis of home secured loans and consumer credit card outstanding balances and it provides results based on logit models. The main variables selected for home secured loans are the age, family status, specific attitude toward credit, employment status, and income. The resulting model exhibits a polynomial behaviour of degree two with respect to age. The main variables for consumer credit card balances are the age, education, general attitude, income code, home secured loans and riskiness. Worth noting is the high probability of having credit card balances for those households where the economically dominant unit is of low age with a positive attitude towards credit.

  1. Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Berrens

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC relationship is supported for a measure of biodiversity risk and economic development across the United States (US. Using state-level data for all 48 contiguous states, biodiversity risk is measured using a Modified Index (MODEX. This index is an adaptation of a comprehensive National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. The MODEX differs from other measures in that it is takes into account the impact of human activities and conservation measures. The econometric approach includes corrections for spatial autocorrelation effects, which are present in the data. Modeling estimation results do not support the EKC hypothesis for biodiversity risk in the US. This finding is robust over ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag models, where the latter is shown to be the preferred model. Results from the spatial lag regression show that a 1% increase in human population density is associated with about a 0.19% increase in biodiversity risk. Spatial dependence in this case study explains 30% of the variation, as risk in one state spills over into adjoining states. From a policy perspective, this latter result supports the need for coordinated efforts at state and federal levels to address the problem of biodiversity loss.

  2. Micro-econometric Analysis of Impact of Remittances on Household’s Welfare: Empirical Evidence from District Peshawar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Waqar Hussain

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study has been conducted in the year 2010 in district Peshawar to assess the impact of inflow of remittances on household’s welfare. The concept welfare was measured in terms of consumption expenditures of the household. A sample of 60 household was interviewed using snowball sampling combined with the convenient sampling technique. A regression model which was a mixture of direct elasticity and semi-elasticity was used to quantify the relationships. Apart from inflow of remittances (lnremt, three control variables (i.e. years of schooling of the household’s head – edu, age of household’s head – age & family size – fz were employed to standardize the impact. Controlling for edu, age & edu, this paper conclude that inflow of remittances enhance household’s welfare. All control variables have theoretically correct positive signs. These results were statistically significant and results showed no major econometric problems that can influence statistical inference derived from the model. So it is highly recommended, in light of the present study, that govt. of Pakistan should take all possible steps to export labors abroad. It has dual positive impacts, one enhancing household’s prosperity (welfare and other reducing unemployment at local level.

  3. Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Zhang, Yue-Jun

    2014-01-01

    Whether China’s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the role of China’s crude oil net imports in Brent price changes from October 2005 to November 2013 based on an econometric analysis. The results indicate that, during the sample period, China’s crude oil imports do not significantly affect Brent price changes, no matter in the long run or short run. Therefore, the blame for China’s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence. Also, there exists significant uni-directional causality running from the Brent price to China's crude oil imports at the 5% level. Besides, the response of the Brent price to China's crude oil imports is found positive but slight, and the Brent price responds more significantly to US dollar exchange rate and OECD commercial inventory than to China’s crude oil imports in the short run. Finally, the contribution of China's crude oil imports to Brent price movement is about 10%, which is less than that of US dollar exchange rate but larger than that of Indian crude oil imports or OECD commercial inventory. - Highlights: • The paper detects the role of China’s crude oil imports in Brent oil price changes. • China’s crude imports do not matter for oil prices in the long run or short run. • The blame for China’s crude imports on oil price changes has no solid evidence. • Significant causality runs from Brent prices to China's crude oil net imports. • China's crude imports contribute less to Brent prices than US dollar exchange rate

  4. [Are there irrationalities in the consumption of anti-obesity drugs in Brazil? A pharmaco-econometric analysis of panel datasets].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Daniel Marques; de Oliveira, Márcia Gonçalves; Bovi, Rafael Filiacci; Silva, Sidarta Figueredo; Cunha, Jeane Araújo Fernandes; Divino, José Angelo

    2014-05-01

    The scope of this study is to analyze the determinants of the use of appetite suppressants (amfepramone, femproporex, mazindol and sibutramine) through the estimation of a dynamic panel dataset model for the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District (DF) in the period from 2009 to 2011. The results show that consumption of appetite suppressants did not follow the geographic distribution of overweight and obese individuals across the capitals and DF. There is a recurrent consumption of appetite inhibitors, in which 79% of the current consumption of these drugs is explained by past consumption. Among the variables that explain the use of inhibitors, the percentage of obese adults, the percentage of adults who habitually consume fruit and vegetables, and the coverage rate of health plans stand out. The pharmaco-econometric analysis suggests that there are problems in the rational use of appetite suppressants in the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District with respect to both the combined consumption of these drugs with other medicines - deemed illegal by the Federal Council of Medicine and ANVISA - and in the therapeutic prescription of these products.

  5. An econometric analysis of willingness-to-pay for sustainable development. A case study of the Volcji Potok landscape area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verbic, Miroslav; Slabe-Erker, Renata

    2009-01-01

    When the market for a certain good is competitive enough, economic activities can be studied by the market pricing mechanism. Because this is usually not feasible in case of environmental goods with embodied natural and cultural heritage, particular methods for economic valuation of such goods have to be applied. The present article represents the economic valuation of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Volcji Potok, which is an important Slovenian cultural landscape area with internationally recognized qualities. For this purpose we combined classical contingent valuation with a closed-version of discrete choice method, where the protest responses have been removed. By using econometric analysis we obtained the value of willingness-to-pay and established its determinants. We also made an attempt to control for different biases that arise in such analyses. At last, we used the adjusted average individual value of willingness-to-pay to calculate the aggregate willingness-to-pay. The present analysis represents one of the very few applications of the method to Central and Eastern European countries. (author)

  6. 后危机时期公允价值计量模式的应用分析%The Application of Fair Value Econometric Mode in Post-Crisis Era

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕玮

    2013-01-01

    In the collation and analysis process of accounting information, accounting measurement is the core of an accounting informa-tion calculation system. The computing method of fair value is more applicable to the modern accounting information system as it reflects a fair principle. As the most related measurement attribute to financial instruments, the superiority of the fair value econometric mode can better define assets and liabilities and raise the relativity of accounting information effectively. It is noticeable that under the context of a market economy, the financial accounting of the fair value econometric model has a few faults reflecting mainly by the poor reliability of in-formation quality, increasing the fluctuation of accounting statements. To solve the problems concerning the application of the fair value e-conometric model, efforts should be put into improving market order, disclosing financial information of fair value, and raising professional quality of accounting personnel and the quality of enterprise accounting statements.%在会计信息的整理和分析过程中,会计计量是会计信息计算系统的核心。公允价值的计算方法更加适合现代会计信息系统,公允价值的计量模式体现了公平原则。公允价值计量模式的优越性更能体现资产负债的定义,能够有效提高财务信息的相关性,公允价值是金融工具最相关的计量属性。需要注意的是在市场经济条件下,公允价值计量模式的会计核算仍然存在不少的缺陷,主要表现是信息质量可靠性差,会增加会计报表的波动性。改进公允价值计量模式使用中的问题,应完善市场秩序,加强对公允价值财务信息的披露,提高会计工作人员的业务素质,提升企业财务报表信息质量。

  7. Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camenzind, Paul A

    2012-03-13

    In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered.

  8. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, W. P., Jr.

    2010-07-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  9. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, W P Jr

    2010-01-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  10. Un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle imprese in Italia (An econometric model for bank lending to companies in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Casolaro

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico del credito bancario alle imprese in Italia per il periodo 1988-2004. I prestiti bancari sono espressi in funzione del rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (che approssima il fabbisogno di finanziamenti esterni, delle attività immobilizzate nel bilancio delle imprese (misurate dallo stock di capitale e del differenziale tra il tasso sui prestiti a breve termine e il rendimento del mercato interbancario (che approssima il costo relativo del credito bancario rispetto a forme di finanziamento alternative. I risultati empirici evidenziano nel lungo periodo un legame diretto del credito bancario con le attività immobilizzate (l’elasticità è pari a uno e con il rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (l’incremento di un punto percentuale del rapporto produce un’espansione del credito del 2%. Le stime econometriche mostrano al contrario una correlazione negativa con il differenziale tra i tassi d’interesse: un aumento di 10 punti base del differenziale tra i tassi determinerebbe, infatti, una riduzione del credito nel lungo periodo pari allo 0,7%.   This paper presents the estimation of an econometric model of bank credit to firms in Italy for the period 1988-2004. Bank loans are expressed as a function of the ratio of fixed capital formation and gross operating margin (which approximates the external financing needs of fixed assets in the financial statements of companies (as measured by the stock of capital and the difference between the interest rate on short-term loans and efficiency of the interbank market (which approximates the relative cost of bank credit compared to alternative forms of financing.The empirical results show a direct link between long-term bank credit with fixed assets (the elasticity is equal to one and the ratio of fixed capital formation and gross operating profit (increase of one percentage point of the report

  11. Food preparation patterns in German family households. An econometric approach with time budget data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möser, Anke

    2010-08-01

    In Germany, the rising importance of out-of-home consumption, increasing usage of convenience products and decreasing knowledge of younger individuals how to prepare traditional dishes can be seen as obvious indicators for shifting patterns in food preparation. In this paper, econometric analyses are used to shed more light on the factors which may influence the time spent on food preparation in two-parent family households with children. Two time budget surveys, carried out 1991/92 and 2001/02 through the German National Statistical Office, provide the necessary data. Time budget data analyses reveal that over the last ten years the time spent on food preparation in Germany has decreased. The results point out that time resources of a household, for example gainful employment of the parents, significantly affect the amount of time spent on food preparation. The analysis confirms further that there is a more equal allocation of time spent on cooking, baking or laying the table between women and men in the last ten years. Due to changing attitudes and conceivably adaption of economic conditions, differences in time devoted to food preparation seem to have vanished between Eastern and Western Germany. Greater time spent on eating out in Germany as well as decreasing time spent on food preparation at home reveal that the food provisioning of families is no longer a primarily private task of the households themselves but needs more public attention and institutional offers and help. Among other points, the possibility of addressing mothers' lack of time as well as growing "food illiteracy" of children and young adults are discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Una teoria macroeconomica della distribuzione per disperdere le nebbie dell'economia. (A macro-distributive theory dispelling the econometric fog

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    S. WEINTRAUB

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available L'opera presenta un modello lineare del settore del mercato privato dell'economia costruito in blocchi principali di Keynes , con alcuni pezzi forniti da Kalecki , Kaldor , e Robinson . L'autore sostiene che tale modello è ricco di promesse in virtù della sua portata e che risolve gran parte del mistero dei modelli econometrici e dimostra le circostanze in cui essi sono suscettibili di agire bene o male . Pedagogicamente , le idee di base sono facilemnte trasmissibilinella prima fase degli studi economici The work presents a linear model of the private market sector of the economy built out of the main blocks of Keynes with some pieces furnished by Kalecki, Kaldor, and Robinson. The author argues that such model is rich in promise by virtue of its scope and that it strips much of the mystery from econometric models and demonstrates the circumstances in which they are likely to perform well or badly. The consistent relations offer hospitable shelter for the theory of income, employment, price level, and income shares in a succinct design. Pedagogically, the elemental ideas are capable of transmission at an early stage in economic studies. JEL: E12

  13. ECONOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF CONTRIBUTION OF FAMILY POULTRY TO WOMEN’S INCOME IN NIGER-DELTA, NIGERIA

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    R ALABI

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This study shows that family poultry husbandry, business activities and paid employment contribute 35%, 30% and 18% respectively to the household income of women in Niger Delta, Nigeria. The average income from family poultry is N16, 784.53 ($124.33, which is about 25% and 50% of national minimum wage and per capita income in Nigeria respectively. The major constraints to the family poultry in the study area are disease and pest, pilfering and lack of capital. The econometric analysis indicates that wage, business and family poultry income are significant determinants of income of women in the study area. The estimated regression coefficients are, 0.35, 0.32 and 0.19 for wage, business and family poultry income respectively. This suggests that if wage income, business income and family poultry income increase by 100%, total income of the women will increase by 35%, 32% and 19% respectively. This indicates that family poultry husbandry has third rating in potentially influencing women income in the study area. It is recommended from the study that the contribution of family poultry to total income of the women can be improved through proper medication and vaccination of their birds with vaccines that are stable under tropical environment. It is also imperative that semi intensive, if not intensive, rearing technology should be considered as a reasonable option if the problem of pilfering is to be addressed. Improving the capital base of the women through formation of cooperating and micro-credit schemes should also be a welcome development in addressing the problem of lack of capital.

  14. On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods

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    Polshkov Yulian M.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states.

  15. Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagoumas, A.S.; Barker, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO 2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO 2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.

  16. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

    2016-07-19

    There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy

  17. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilma E. Waterlander

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Methods/Design The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM study aims to: I derive accurate and precise food PE values; II quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. Discussion The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential

  18. An econometric analysis of electricity demand response to price changes at the intra-day horizon: The case of manufacturing industry in West Denmark

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    Niels Framroze Møller

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The use of renewable energy implies a more variable supply of power. Market efficiency may improve if demand can absorb some of this variability by being more flexible, e.g. by responding quickly to changes in the market price of power. To learn about this, in particular, whether demand responds already within the same day, we suggest an econometric model for hourly consumption- and price time series. This allows for multi-level seasonality and that information about day-ahead prices does not arrive every hour but every 24th hour (as a vector of 24 prices. We confront the model with data from the manufacturing industry of West Denmark (2007-2011. The results clearly suggest a lack of response. The policy implication is that relying exclusively on hourly price response by consumers for integrating volatile renewable electricity production is questionable. Either hourly price variation has to increase considerably or demand response technologies be installed.

  19. Residential water demand and water consumption: an econometric analysis on municipal panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musolesi, Antonio; Nosvelli, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on residential water demand estimation, a rather neglected issue in the Italian environmental economics literature as compared to other European countries and the USA. This may depend on the difficulties in gathering proper data and, most of all, panel data. In some cases statistical information are not suitably collected, while in other cases legal privacy ties put some obstacles to data set transfer. Our panel data set refers to 102 municipalities in Lombardy (Italy) for the period 1998-2002. When estimating the effect of water price, we control for other relevant variables such as: income, households demographical variables - (age structure, number of component for each family) number of firms in tertiary sector, water system length. In the considered period, the data show both an increase in population (1,5 %) and in the number of water consumers (7%) associated, on aggregate, with a slight reduction in water consumption (-1,1 %). Water demand models are estimated both in a static and in a dynamic framework. In the former, the emphasis is set on the sources of endogeneity in the average price by estimating a system of simultaneous equations and relevant variables for assessing consumer behaviour - such as socio demographic ones - are incorporated in the model. In the latter, econometric methods especially designed for endogeneity in panel data models (Arellano e Bond, 1991), are employed in order to estimate the long run elasticity of water demand with respect to average price. We find evidence both that consumers significantly respond to average price only in the long run with an elasticity of about - 0,3-0,4 and that income and demographic variables are crucial in explaining consumers' behaviour. Furthermore, water consumption presents a strong auto-regressive component, showing the emergence of inertia and path dependency in consumption habits. Such results suggest important implications for water policy planning. On one side demographic

  20. ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OD THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE WATER QUALITY CHANGES ON FISHING ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Antoni Ramczyk

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The econometric model can be a precise instrument for the analysis of the impact of the natural environment's degradation on fishing economy. This paper aims at analysing the influence of the water quality changes in lake Charzykowskie on the fishing economy. This dissertation present the results of a research on the lake water pollution's impact on fishing economy. The economic-ecological models have been constructed, explaining the changes of economic effects of the lake fishery in the conditions of an increasing water pollution in the epilimnion on the example of the catch of Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama, Blicca bjoerkna, Coregonus albula, Coregonus lavaretus, Anguilla anguilla and Esox lucius in Lake Charzykowskie. Performed empirical research looked into the influence of the environmental factors on the size of fish catch. Calculations and analysis show clearly that though the habitat factors do influence the catch size of each studied fish species, they do it with different intensity and in various combinations. Both lake water quality and climate factors changes cause measurable effects on fishing industry of lake Charzykowskie. Among all the examined Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna the highest environmental requirements concerning water quality has Blicca bjoerkna. Whereas Abramis brama has slightly higher environmental requirements than Rutilus rutilus. Empirical calculations showed as well that Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus have considerably higher water cleanness requirements than Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna. While when talking about Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna, most water characteristics still rather stimulated these species' development, when it comes to Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus, in general they suppressed their development. The model has also proved quite high habitat requierements of Anquilla anquilla and correctness of the thesis that

  1. Contagio financiero entre economías: análisis exploratorio desde la econometría Caso Colombia-Estados Unidos

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    Luís Ángel Meneses Cerón

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available El artículo, estudia las relaciones de dependencia entre los mercados financieros internacionales, indagando sobre el efecto del contagio financiero entre dos series de retornos de índices accionarios: el Dow Jones (DJ y el índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC. Lo anterior, gracias a que Estados Unidos es el principal país con el que Colombia mantiene unfuerte nexo comercial y económico. Se hará uso de información histórica de carácter público, comprendida entre enero 1 de 2007 y diciembre 31 de 2010, proveniente de fuentes objetivas y reconocidas en el mercado. Se desarrollará un ejercicio de tipo econométrico, en el cual se establece el nivel de relacionamientoexistente entre los dos índices mencionados. El principal aportede este trabajo es la implementación de la econometría como técnica para el análisis del contagio, que permite inferir las relaciones de causalidad entre los mercados y determinar modelos de predicción robustos que generan un mayor acervo informativo e interpretativo sobre la dinámica implícita en los retornos de los diferentes activos financieros.

  2. The relationship of sugar to population-level diabetes prevalence: an econometric analysis of repeated cross-sectional data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Yoffe, Paula; Hills, Nancy; Lustig, Robert H

    2013-01-01

    While experimental and observational studies suggest that sugar intake is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, independent of its role in obesity, it is unclear whether alterations in sugar intake can account for differences in diabetes prevalence among overall populations. Using econometric models of repeated cross-sectional data on diabetes and nutritional components of food from 175 countries, we found that every 150 kcal/person/day increase in sugar availability (about one can of soda/day) was associated with increased diabetes prevalence by 1.1% (p <0.001) after testing for potential selection biases and controlling for other food types (including fibers, meats, fruits, oils, cereals), total calories, overweight and obesity, period-effects, and several socioeconomic variables such as aging, urbanization and income. No other food types yielded significant individual associations with diabetes prevalence after controlling for obesity and other confounders. The impact of sugar on diabetes was independent of sedentary behavior and alcohol use, and the effect was modified but not confounded by obesity or overweight. Duration and degree of sugar exposure correlated significantly with diabetes prevalence in a dose-dependent manner, while declines in sugar exposure correlated with significant subsequent declines in diabetes rates independently of other socioeconomic, dietary and obesity prevalence changes. Differences in sugar availability statistically explain variations in diabetes prevalence rates at a population level that are not explained by physical activity, overweight or obesity.

  3. Modeling the Construction Sector and Oil Prices toward the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Econometric Approach

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    Peter Uchenna Okoye

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examined the interrelationship between the construction sector, oil prices, and the actual gross domestic product (GDP in Nigeria. Using annual economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, and econometric statistics, we found that although very strong positive and significant correlations exist between the construction sector output and total GDP output (0.934, the construction sector output and oil prices (0.856, and the total GDP output and oil prices (0.822, these linear relationships only exist for a short time. However, these relationships do not result in any direct causal influence on each other, except for the uni-directional Granger causal relationship that flows from the total GDP output to the construction sector output, which implies that economic activities of other major non-oil sectors stimulate the construction activities in Nigeria. Thus, we argue that neither the construction sector nor the oil prices directly influence the aggregate economy; rather, the other sectors’ activities stimulate the construction sector in Nigeria. Two policy recommendations for achieving the Federal Government’s medium term Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP are suggested: (1 the Nigerian government should de-emphasize overreliance on the oil sector through policy readjustment and (2 an urgent need for economic diversification in Nigeria exists, since we revealed that an increase in the aggregate GDP output is due to the activities of other non-oil sectors.

  4. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. CHARACTERISTICS AND SPECIFICITIES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISTIC RECEPTION ESTABLISHMENTS AND THE EXISTING ACCOMMODATION CAPACITY IN TERRITORIAL PROFILE IN ROMANIA, DURING 2002 - 2012. AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN ZAHARIA

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The economic evolutions in Romania, in the first decade of the XXI century, were marked by increases and decreases with rather large amplitudes. Growth period up to 2008 was followed by a significant recession, the economic crisis started in 2009 having implications in the all economic sectors. After 2011 the economy starts to recover so that we are witnessing a new process of growth. The tourism, industry of the national economy, has perceived the economic crisis also. The number of touristic reception establishment and the existing accommodation capacity has recorded regresses. Both during growth and during the economic crisis, at the regional level, the developments differ significantly. This paper, based on statistical and econometric analysis, highlights the characteristics and peculiarities of the ways in which evolved the indicators of tourism supply of accommodation, both at the macro-regions and development regions of Romania, during the period 2002 2012.

  6. Comportamento dos custos: uma investigação empírica acerda dos conceitos econométricos sobre a teoria tradicional da contabilidade de custos Cost behavior: an empirical study of econometric concepts about traditional cost accounting theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Dantas Cassimiro Da Silva

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available A investigação, em tela, versa sobre a inconsistência dada pela literatura Contábil em termos de estimação do comportamento dos custos. Portanto, o objetivo central deste trabalho é identificar se teoria da Análise Estatística do Comportamento dos Custos, defendida pela literatura contábil, está ferindo os conceitos modernos da Econometria utilizados em finanças, em termos de identificação e correção da não estacionariedade das séries temporais. Para tanto, adotou-se um procedimento metodológico dedutivo através de pesquisa indireta. Para reforçar os conceitos e análises feitas no desenvolvimento da pesquisa utilizaram-se dados de estudo de caso que foram rodados no software Econométrico E-views. Por fim, conclui-se que a teoria empregada na literatura contábil concernente à utilização de técnicas estatísticas em comportamento dos custos não considera a análise da estacionariedade das séries e que, portanto, gera inconsistências estatísticas (regressões espúrias na previsão do referido comportamento. Com isso, o estudo posiciona-se de forma relevante à evolução da ciência no momento em que enseja uma discussão maior em uma área ainda incipiente das Ciências Contábeis, a Contabilometria.This research looks at the inconsistency in accounting literature about the estimation of cost behavior. The main goal was to identify whether the Statistical Analysis of Cost Behavior theory, defended by accounting literature, is infringing modern econometric concepts used in finance, in terms of identifying and correcting the non-stationarity of the temporal series. Therefore, a deductive methodology was used through indirect research. To reinforce the concepts and analyses carried out in the development of this research, case study data were used and processed through the econometric software E-views. Finally, it is concluded that the theory used in accounting literature about the use of statistical techniques in

  7. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Background Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). Methods We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. Results The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, Ponline self-representation (beta=0.386, Ponline, the market will be more concentrated (known as the “Superstar” effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. PMID:27793793

  8. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  9. Econometric Approach of the Scenarios regarding the Impact of the Consumer’s Empowerment and Companies’ Responsibility for Environment Sustainability on the Electricity Market Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia I. Lungu

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Energy is a major component of the economy, both as a sector in itself and as an input factor to all other economic activities. This sector is facing major challenges regarding increasing oil prices, severity of climate change or extremely complex implications of the global financial crisis. Organized as an empirical study, based on econometric analysis supported by a rigorous literature review, the paper studies possible correlations between the performance of electricity market, renewable resource consumption, consumers’ behaviour, the influence of economic environment and economic development. It also aims to encourage a new and wider research framework regarding the implications of economic policies’ use on consumers’ perception. The results of the study indicate that the early stage of renewable energy use and the prospect of influencing the consumer behaviour in a way to increase the market performance, through the development of strategies oriented towards sustainable energy consumption, can have a positive impact on companies’ responsibility. It is concluded that consumers’ empowerment stimulates competition, raises efficiency and rethinks companies’ strategies for environment sustainability.

  10. Refining cost-effectiveness analyses using the net benefit approach and econometric methods: an example from a trial of anti-depressant treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabes-Figuera, Ramon; McCrone, Paul; Kendricks, Antony

    2013-04-01

    Economic evaluation analyses can be enhanced by employing regression methods, allowing for the identification of important sub-groups and to adjust for imperfect randomisation in clinical trials or to analyse non-randomised data. To explore the benefits of combining regression techniques and the standard Bayesian approach to refine cost-effectiveness analyses using data from randomised clinical trials. Data from a randomised trial of anti-depressant treatment were analysed and a regression model was used to explore the factors that have an impact on the net benefit (NB) statistic with the aim of using these findings to adjust the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Exploratory sub-samples' analyses were carried out to explore possible differences in cost-effectiveness. Results The analysis found that having suffered a previous similar depression is strongly correlated with a lower NB, independent of the outcome measure or follow-up point. In patients with previous similar depression, adding an selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) to supportive care for mild-to-moderate depression is probably cost-effective at the level used by the English National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence to make recommendations. This analysis highlights the need for incorporation of econometric methods into cost-effectiveness analyses using the NB approach.

  11. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Zhang, Ya; Ma, Ling; Liu, Xuan

    2016-10-28

    Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, P<.001) or strong online self-representation (beta=0.386, P<.001) is less concentrated. When health care services are delivered online, the market will be more concentrated (known as the "Superstar" effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. ©Jia Li, Ya Zhang, Ling Ma, Xuan Liu. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 28.10.2016.

  12. Binge drinking and alcohol prices: a systematic review of age-related results from econometric studies, natural experiments and field studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jon P

    2015-01-01

    Heavy episodic ("binge") drinking of alcohol has serious public health implications, especially for youth and young adults. Previous summaries and surveys have failed to address in a comprehensive manner the effects of alcohol prices on binge drinking by gender or age group. A qualitative systematic review is performed for effects of alcohol prices (or tax surrogates) on binge drinking for three age groups: youth, young adults, and adults. Outcomes examined include binge participation, intensity and frequency. Criteria for data collection and potential sources of bias are discussed, including adequacy of price data. Price-binge relationships are judged using a 95% confidence interval (p ≤ 0.05) for statistical significance. Fifty-six relevant econometric studies were found, with studies and results distributed equally among three age groups. Also found were five natural experiments for tax reductions and six field studies. Null results or mixed results are found in more than half of the studies. The body of evidence indicates that binge drinkers are not highly-responsive to increased prices. Non-responsiveness holds generally for younger and older drinkers and for male and female binge drinkers alike. A limitation of the current literature is that results are only available for higher-income countries. Increased alcohol taxes or prices are unlikely to be effective as a means to reduce binge drinking, regardless of gender or age group.

  13. Is the way young people drive a reflection of the way their parents drive? An econometric study of the relation between parental risk and their children's risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahatte, Agénor; Le Pape, Marie-Clémence

    2008-06-01

    This article aims to investigate parental influence on high-risk behavior by young people. Although research on the topic of perception of risk demonstrates that it is socially constructed, the role of the family in this construction has rarely been studied. Using a French national survey of more than 1,200 young drivers between the ages of 18 and 25, and their parents, we attempt to understand the transmission of risk within families. Our econometric study shows that parents influence both the practices and representations of their children. When parental norms and values are transmitted, they are by no means accepted in a wholly passive way. Indeed, the parental model is in competition with other models that originate from both inside the family (brothers and sisters) and outside it (instructors). Furthermore, parental influence decreases over time as young people become more experienced drivers and construct their own identity with regard to risk.

  14. Determinants of the distribution and concentration of biogas production in Germany. A spatial econometric analysis; Bestimmungsfaktoren der Verteilung und Konzentration der Biogasproduktion in Deutschland. Eine raeumlich-oekonometrische Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scholz, Lukas

    2015-07-01

    The biogas production in Germany is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution and the formation of regional centers. In the present study the determinants of the spatial distribution and concentration are analyzed with methods of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. In addition to the consideration of ''classic'' site factors of agricultural production, the analysis here focuses on the possible relevance of agglomeration effects. The results of the work contribute to a better understanding of the regional distribution and concentration of the biogas production in Germany. [German] Die Biogasproduktion in Deutschland ist durch eine heterogene Verteilung und die Ausbildung von regionalen Zentren charakterisiert. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Bestimmungsfaktoren der raeumlichen Verteilung und Konzentration mit Methoden der raeumlichen Statistik und der raeumlichen Oekonometrie analysiert. Neben der Betrachtung ''klassischer'' Standortfaktoren landwirtschaftlicher Produktion fokussiert die Analyse dabei auf die moegliche Relevanz von Agglomerationseffekten. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit tragen zu einem besseren Verstaendnis der regionalen Verteilung und Konzentration der Biogasproduktion in Deutschland bei.

  15. Do health care workforce, population, and service provision significantly contribute to the total health expenditure? An econometric analysis of Serbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santric-Milicevic, M; Vasic, V; Terzic-Supic, Z

    2016-08-15

    In times of austerity, the availability of econometric health knowledge assists policy-makers in understanding and balancing health expenditure with health care plans within fiscal constraints. The objective of this study is to explore whether the health workforce supply of the public health care sector, population number, and utilization of inpatient care significantly contribute to total health expenditure. The dependent variable is the total health expenditure (THE) in Serbia from the years 2003 to 2011. The independent variables are the number of health workers employed in the public health care sector, population number, and inpatient care discharges per 100 population. The statistical analyses include the quadratic interpolation method, natural logarithm and differentiation, and multiple linear regression analyses. The level of significance is set at P Total health expenditure increased by 1.21 standard deviations, with an increase in health workforce growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Furthermore, this rate decreased by 1.12 standard deviations, with an increase in (negative) population growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Finally, the growth rate increased by 0.38 standard deviation, with an increase of the growth rate of inpatient care discharges per 100 population by 1 standard deviation (P < 0.001). Study results demonstrate that the government has been making an effort to control strongly health budget growth. Exploring causality relationships between health expenditure and health workforce is important for countries that are trying to consolidate their public health finances and achieve universal health coverage at the same time.

  16. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  17. A cost comparison of alternative regimens for treatment-refractory partial seizure disorder: an econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Won Chan; Hoffmann, Marc S; Arcona, Steve; D'Souza, Joseph; Wang, Qin; Pashos, Chris L

    2005-10-01

    Partial seizure disorder is typically treated by monotherapy with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). However, when the condition is refractory to the initial treatment regimen, patients may be switched to monotherapy with another AED or to combination therapy with the initial AED plus a second AED. The purpose of this study was to examine the economic costs associated with treatment-refractory partial seizure disorder and to compare the costs of 2 alternative approaches: a switch to oxcarbazepine (OXC) monotherapy or the addition to the regimen of another AED (AED add-on). Adult patients with a diagnosis of partial seizure disorder who received initial AED monotherapy between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2003, were identified from the PharMetrics Patient-Centric Database, a health plan administrative claims database. The medical and pharmacy history of these patients was analyzed from 6 months before a change to either OXC monotherapy or AED add-on therapy through 12 months after the change in treatment. Total health care resource utilization and the associated costs were compared within each cohort before and after the change, as well as between cohorts, with statistical differences tested using Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Multivariate econometric analyses were performed to examine the impact of age, sex, geographic location, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and the presence of specific comorbidities. Demographic and clinical characteristics 102 were similar between the OXC monotherapy cohort (n = 259) and the AED add-on cohort (n = 795). Annual direct treatment costs increased in both groups in the period after the failure of initial monotherapy, increasing from 10,462 US dollars to 11,360 US dollars in the OXC cohort and from 10,137 US dollars to 12,201 US dollars in the AED add on cohort (P < 0.01). Increased pharmacy costs were the primary driver behind cost increases in both cohorts. Patients in the AED add-on cohort were significantly more likely to have an emergency

  18. Application of modern tests for stationarity to single-trial MEG data: transferring powerful statistical tools from econometrics to neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech

    2011-10-01

    Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.

  19. An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollitt, Hector; Park, Seung-Joon; Lee, Soocheol; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econometric E3MG model. Our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to Japanese GDP is close to zero, and for employment the impact is slightly positive. Our results also show a double-dividend effect if (revenue-neutral) carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the GHG reduction targets, and this double-dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power. However, our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25% reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power. - Highlights: • We modelled 12 scenarios for Japan with different shares for nuclear power and different emission targets. • The results showed that phasing out nuclear power would have at most a very small reduction in GDP. • If a carbon tax with revenue recycling is applied, there could be an increase in GDP. • But the carbon price required to meet Japan's 25% emission reduction target is very high if the share of nuclear power is reduced

  20. Sims, Christopher Albert (born 1942)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, M.; Durlauf, S.N.; Blume, L.E.

    2012-01-01

    Christopher Sims is one of the leaders in time-series econometrics and empirical macroeconomics and is well known for introducing the VAR approach to econometrics and macroeconomic modelling. Sims' main contribution to empirical macroeconomics was to show how macro-econometric modeling should be

  1. Sims, Christopher Albert (born 1942)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel

    2015-01-01

    Christopher Sims is one of the leaders in time-series econometrics and empirical macroeconomics and is well known for introducing the VAR approach to econometrics and macroeconomic modelling. Sims’ main contribution to empirical macroeconomics was to show how macro-econometric modeling should be

  2. Box-Cox Test: the theoretical justification and US-China empirical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tam Bang Vu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In econometrics, the derivation of a theoretical model leads sometimes to two econometric models, which can be considered justified based on their respective approximation approaches. Hence, the decision of choosing one between the two hinges on applied econometric tools. In this paper, the authors develop a theoretical econometrics consumer maximization model to measure the flow of durables’ expenditures where depreciation is added to former classical econometrics model. The proposed model was formulated in both linear and logarithmic forms. Box-Cox tests were used to choose the most appropriate one among them. The proposed model was then applied to the historical data from the U.S. and China for a comparative study and the results discussed.

  3. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

  4. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

    2015-03-01

    Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

  5. International oil and natural gas demand projections: an econometric model for 2008-2030; Projecao das demandas mundiais de petroleo e de gas natural: aplicacao de um modelo agregado para o periodo 2008-2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Giovani; Aragao, Amanda; Valle, Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    This study forecasts the world oil and gas demands for 2008-2030 by applying econometric formulations. The basic variables are world GDP and Brent price. The forecast assumptions are: sound world economic growth remains, despite falling rates during the period; Brent prices continue high, but in a lower level, in 2006 constant prices, in harmony with Energy Information Administration reference scenario. Findings show that, should assumptions prove to be correct, world oil and gas demands will reach 118 million bbl/d and 5 trillion cubic meters in 2030, respectively. In other words, world oil demand will grow at 1.4% per year, while world gas demand will increase at 2.5% per year. Although such figures are similar to those from other institutions (EIA, IEA and OPEC), structural changes in oil and gas markets, catalyzed by high oil prices and energy and environmental policies, may reduce forecast strength of the specifications proposed. (author)

  6. Un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia (An econometric model for bank lending to households in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Casolaro

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia nel periodo 1984-2003. Il modello si compone di due equazioni: prestiti per l’acquisto di abitazioni e altri prestiti alle famiglie (tipicamente credito al consumo e finanziamenti in conto corrente. Entrambe le equazioni evidenziano uno stretto legame con l’andamento congiunturale dell’economia e il livello dei tassi di interesse reali; i mutui alle famiglie sono influenzati anche dalla dinamica del mercato immobiliare e di quello azionario. Il lavoro verifica l’esistenza di cambiamenti strutturali nelle equazioni in relazione alle trasformazioni intervenute nel mercato del credito nella seconda parte degli anni novanta e scompone il contributo alla crescita del credito alle famiglie tra i diversi fattori.  This paper presents the estimation of an econometric model for bank lending to households in Italy in the period 1984-2003. The model consists of two equations: loans for house purchase and other loans to households (typically consumer credit and loans in the current account. Both equations show a close relationship with the economic trend and the level of real interest rates; household mortgages are also influenced by the dynamics of the housing market and the equity market. The work verifies the existence of structural changes in the equations in relation to the changes occurred in the credit market in the second half of the nineties and breaks down the contribution to growth in lending to households between the different factors.  JEL Codes: D12, G21Keywords: credito bancario, famiglie, prestiti, modello econometrico

  7. Mortality changes after grants from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria: an econometric analysis from 1995 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Korenromp, Eline; Bendavid, Eran

    2015-09-28

    Since its founding in 2002, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) has become the dominant multilateral health financier in low- and middle-income countries. The health impact of the Global Fund remains unknown because existing evaluations measure intermediate outcomes or do not account for preexisting and counterfactual trends. We conducted an econometric analysis of data from all countries eligible to receive Global Fund grants from 1995 to 2010, prior to and during the Global Fund's activities. We analyzed three outcomes: all-cause adult (15-59 years), all-cause under-five, and malaria-specific under-five mortality. Our main exposure was a continuous longitudinal measure of Global Fund disbursements per capita. We used panel fixed effect regressions, and analyzed mortality trends controlling for health spending, health worker density (a measure of health system capacity), gross domestic product, urbanization, and country fixed-effects. We find that following Global Fund disbursements, adult mortality rate declined by 1.4 % per year faster with every $10 per capita increase in disbursements (p = 0.005). Similarly, malaria-specific under-five mortality declined by 6.9 % per year faster (p = 0.033) with every $10 high per capita Global Fund disbursements. However, we find no association between Global Fund support and all-cause under-five mortality. These findings were consistent after subanalyses by baseline HIV prevalence, adjusting for effects of concurrent health aid from other donors, and varying time lags between funding and mortality changes. Grants from the Global Fund are closely related to accelerated reductions in all-cause adult mortality and malaria-specific under-five mortality. However, up to 2010 the Global Fund has not measurably contributed to reducing all-cause under-five mortality.

  8. Analysis of Air Activity Concentration Data Collected in the Kanto Plain, Japan, following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-09

    1981. “Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification,” J. Econometrics , 16, 121-130. Hanke, J.E. and Wichern...ABSTRACT A novel use of econometric analysis was applied for the comparison of time series of air sampling data considered for use in dose...analysis, statistical; emissions, atmospheric; radioactivity, airborne 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT U 18. NUMBER

  9. An Exploratory Analysis of Economic Factors in the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    the model incorporates (in the personnel calculations) econometric effects to Losses by Expiration of Active Obligated Service, Attrition, and Length...Incorporate econometric effects of losses by LOS and paygrade using parameters generated by the Navy Econometric Modeling System (NEMS) to the greatest...community- level models . (CAP9) • Model architecture will support hosting of model , scenarios, (inputs, user comments, etc.) and outputs in a secure

  10. Econometric modelling of multiple self-reports of health states: The switch from EQ-5D-3L to EQ-5D-5L in evaluating drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Alava, Mónica; Pudney, Stephen

    2017-09-01

    EQ-5D is used in cost-effectiveness studies underlying many important health policy decisions. It comprises a survey instrument describing health states across five domains, and a system of utility values for each state. The original 3-level version of EQ-5D is being replaced with a more sensitive 5-level version but the consequences of this change are uncertain. We develop a multi-equation ordinal response model incorporating a copula specification with normal mixture marginals to analyse joint responses to EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L in a survey of people with rheumatic disease, and use it to generate mappings between the alternative descriptive systems. We revisit a major cost-effectiveness study of drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis, mapping the original EQ-5D-3L measure onto a 5L valuation basis. Working within a comprehensive, flexible econometric framework, we find that use of simpler restricted specifications can make very large changes to cost-effectiveness estimates with serious implications for decision-making. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Econometrics versus the Bookmakers. An econometric approach to sports betting

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Sindre Michael

    2016-01-01

    Bruk av økonometri for å estimere sannsynligheter for ulike utfall i fotballkamper, over en Premier League sesong. Lager en modell basert på Bradley-Terry. Resultatet av estimeringene testes deretter ved å sammenligne med historisk odds satt av ulike spilltilbydere, og anvendes for hypotetiske innsatser. Modellen viser profitt.

  12. Modeling financial time series with S-plus

    CERN Document Server

    Zivot, Eric

    2003-01-01

    The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Washington, and is co-director of the nascent Professional Master's Program in Computational Finance He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the He...

  13. Econometric modelling for the analysis of carbon tax impacts in Korea - with an emphasis on the role of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.K.; Kim, S.S.; Moon, K.H.; Song, K.D.; Choi, Y.M.

    1997-01-01

    It is very important to take a look at the role of nuclear energy within the framework of energy demand and supply when the international environmental regulation is imposed. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of imposition of carbon tax on energy sector in Korea. To do so, an econometric simulation model was developed. The model is composed of not only energy part in detail but also economic activity part in a rather simple manner. To analyze the electric sector in detail, energy block is divided into the electric and the non-electric energy sector. In the electric sector there are four blocks such as demand, conversion efficiency, fuel, and price. Several carbon tax scenarios were assumed to figure out the impacts on such variables as C0 sub 2 emissions, GDP, energy demand and price. After estimating the carbon tax effects, another set of scenario was created in analyzing the possible role of nuclear power for alleviating the impacts from carbon tax. From the results it is found that the national economy is significantly influenced according to which regulation is adopted. If international regulation is imposed on the quantity of total carbon emission, the impact is so severe that Korean economy could not stand alone. Therefore, the economy cannot overcome the impact from the regulation only by the increased share of nuclear. However, if the regulation is imposed on the quantity of carbon emission proportional to population instead of total carbon emission, it would bring definitely better opportunity to the Korean economy. In the latter case, there is room that nuclear can contribute. If the share of nuclear increases up to 60% in 2020 instead of 45%, GDP would rise by 1.9% while the electricity price lower by 46%. The model could be used in other purposed such as studies on the impacts from fuel prices increases, from capital investment costs increases, and so on

  14. Developing countries SMEs innovation characteristics and performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vang, Jan; Rezaei, Shahamak; Baklanov, Nikita

    An econometric study analysing developing countries’ SMEs innovation characteristics and their correlation with performance.......An econometric study analysing developing countries’ SMEs innovation characteristics and their correlation with performance....

  15. Forecasted electric power demands for the Delmarva Power and Light Company. Volume 1 and Volume 2. Documentation manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estomin, S.L.; Beach, J.E.

    1990-10-01

    The two-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak load and electric power demands for the Delmarva Power and Light Company (DP ampersand L) through the year 2008. Separate sets of models were estimated for the three jurisdictions served by DP ampersand L: Delaware, Maryland and Virginia. For both Delaware and Maryland, econometric equations were estimated for residential, commercial, industrial, and streetlighting sales. For Virginia, equations were estimated for residential, commercial plus industrial, and streetlighting sales; separate industrial and commercial equations were not estimated for Virginia due to the relatively small size of DP ampersand L's Virginia Industrial load. Wholesale sales were econometrically estimated for the DP ampersand L system as a whole. In addition to the energy sales models, an econometric model of annual (summer) peak demand was estimated for the Company

  16. Search Results | Page 45 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Results 441 - 450 of 9581 ... African Regional Workshop on Compensation for Ecosystem ... ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS POLICY ... Poverty impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon : the role of tax policy ... (obstetric care, tuberculosis treatment and antiretroviral treatment for HIV-positive people), ...

  17. Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures : A dynamic spatial panel approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yesilyurt, M. Ensar; Elhorst, J. Paul

    Using the latest spatial econometric techniques and data pertaining to 144 countries over the period 1993-2007, this article tests and compares four frequently used spatial econometric models and eight matrices describing the mutual relationships among the countries, all within a common framework,

  18. Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures : A dynamic spatial panel approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yesilyurt, M. Ensar; Elhorst, J. Paul

    2017-01-01

    Using the latest spatial econometric techniques and data pertaining to 144 countries over the period 1993-2007, this article tests and compares four frequently used spatial econometric models and eight matrices describing the mutual relationships among the countries, all within a common framework,

  19. Contributi econometrici della Cowles Commission, 1944-47: uno sguardo retrospettivo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.R. KLEIN

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The Cowles Commission's econometric work had a profound effect on economic analysis after the Second World War. Econometrics was a young discipline at that time and the author discusses the principle contributors and their work at the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics. Successful econometrics relies on combining economics with mathematics and statistics. It is also important to remember that quantitative economics does not give results that are robust in very small confidence areas - rather they provide guidance for policy makers and facilitate a better understanding of the economy.  JEL Codes: B23 

  20. TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE AND GDP /JIPP CURVE/

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Kaneva

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between telecommunications infrastructure and economic activity is under discussion in many scientific papers. Most of the authors use for research and analysis the Jipp curve. A lot of doubts about the correctness of the Jipp curve appear in terms of applying econometric models. The aim of this study is a review of the Jipp curve, refining the possibility of its application in modern conditions. The methodology used in the study is based on dynamic econometric models, including tests for nonstationarity and tests for causality. The focus of this study is directed to methodological problems in measuring the local density types of telecommunication networks. This study offers a specific methodology for assessing the Jipp law, through VAR-approach and Granger causality tests. It is proved that mechanical substitution of momentary aggregated variables (such as the number of subscribers of a telecommunication network at the end of the year and periodically aggregated variables (such as GDP per capita in the Jipp�s curve is methodologically wrong. Researchers have to reconsider the relationship set in the Jipp�s curve by including additional variables that characterize the Telecommunications sector and the economic activity in a particular country within a specified time period. GDP per capita should not be regarded as a single factor for the local density of telecommunications infrastructure. New econometric models studying the relationship between the investments in telecommunications infrastructure and economic development may be not only linear regression models, but also other econometric models. New econometric models should be proposed after testing and validating with sound economic theory and econometric methodology.

  1. DESARROLLO DE COMPETENCIAS PROFESIONALES EN LOS ESTUDIANTES DE LA CARRERA DE LICENCIATURA EN CONTABILIDAD Y FINANZAS DESDE LA ENSEÑANZA DE LOS CONOCIMIENTOS DE ECONOMETRÍA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Pérez Sosa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available La Educación Superior actual demanda elevar la calidad de la formación de profesionales competentes, capaces de aplicar los conocimientos adquiridos durante sus estudios de pregrado en el entorno socio-económico donde se desenvolverán una vez graduados, haciéndose necesario adoptar nuevas alternativas didácticas, capaces de encauzarlos en este sentido. Los estudiantes de Licenciatura en Contabilidad y Finanzas reciben los conocimientos de econometría en segundo año, los que deben ser tenidos en cuenta dentro de la economía para la realización de pronósticos, planes económicos y productivos. El presente trabajo muestra como a través de la enseñanza de los conocimientos de Econometría es posible contribuir a la formación de la competencia profesional de resolver problemas económicos.PALABRAS CLAVE: Enseñanza; Econometría; competencias profesionales.DEVELOPMENT OF PROFESSIONAL COMPETENCE IN UNIVERSITY STUDENTS IN DEGREE IN ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE FROM TEACHING KNOWLEDGE ECONOMETRICSABSTRACTHigher Education Current demand raise the quality of training of competent professionals, able to apply the knowledge acquired during their undergraduate studies in the socio-economic environment which will unfold after graduation, making it necessary to adopt new teaching alternatives capable of channeling in this. Students Degree in Accounting and Finance received the knowledge of econometrics in the second year, which must be taken into account in the economy to perform forecasts, business plans and productive. This paper shows how through teaching econometrics knowledge may contribute to the formation of professional competence to solve economic problems.KEYWORDS: Education; Econometrics; Professional Skills.

  2. An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, David J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

  3. CDM using a Cross-Country Micro Moments Database

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bartelsman, E.J.; van Leeuwen, G.; Polder, M.

    2017-01-01

    This note starts with a retrospective view of the CDM model [Crépon, Bruno, Emmanuel Duguet, and Jacques Mairesse. 1998. “Research, Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level.” Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7 (2): 115–158.] as an econometric framework for

  4. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  5. Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

    2013-01-01

    The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

  6. A Tradeoff in Econometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Hoornweg (Victor)

    2018-01-01

    markdownabstractThe scientific method dictates how researchers can make claims about the underlying truth by confronting prior hypotheses to a random sample of data. A fundamental task of Statistics is to allow researchers to balance their hypotheses with data-optimized results. This thesis shows

  7. Econometric modelling of conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, J.C.; Seal, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    The issue of energy conservation in general, and conservation in the natural gas markets in particular, has recently had a much lower profile than in the past, when energy prices were significantly higher and energy costs composed a much larger proportion of industrial operating costs than today. The recent downward trend in energy prices has diverted attention away from this issue. In the face of expected significant real price increases, increasing pressure from environmental groups, and directives on the part of regulator authorities, conservation is once again becoming a topic of consideration in the energy industry. From the point of view of gas demand forecasting, conservation has received too little attention. The intentions of this paper are to establish the need for forecasting conservation in the natural gas utility sector, and to construct a model of industrial demand which incorporates conservation and is appropriate for use as a forecasting tool

  8. Spatial econometrics using microdata

    CERN Document Server

    Dubé, Jean

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to spatial analyses concerning disaggregated (or micro) spatial data.Particular emphasis is put on spatial data compilation and the structuring of the connections between the observations. Descriptive analysis methods of spatial data are presented in order to identify and measure the spatial, global and local dependency.The authors then focus on autoregressive spatial models, to control the problem of spatial dependency between the residues of a basic linear statistical model, thereby contravening one of the basic hypotheses of the ordinary least squares appr

  9. Can the electricity market be characterised by asymmetric behaviour?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Popp, Stephan

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we test for asymmetric behaviour of industrial and residential electricity demand for the G7 countries, using the entropy-based test for symmetry suggested by [Racine, J., and Maasoumi, E., 2007. A versatile and robust metric entropy test of time-reversibility, and other hypotheses. Journal of Econometrics 138(2), 547-567; Racine, J., and Maasoumi, E., 2008. A robust entropy-based test of asymmetry for discrete and continuous processes. Econometric Reviews 28, 246-261], the Triples test of [Randles, R., Flinger, M., Policello, G., and Wolfe, D., 1980. An asymptotically distribution-free test for symmetry versus asymmetry. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, 168-172] and the [Bai, J., and Ng, S., 2001. A consistent test for conditional symmetry in time series models. Journal of Econometrics 103, 225-258] test for conditional symmetry. Using data that spans over three decades, we find overwhelming evidence of conditional symmetry of residential and industrial electricity consumption. This finding implies that the use of econometric tests based on linear data generating processes is credible. (author)

  10. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-10-22

    To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. The UK. The UK adult population. Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

  11. Putting a price on carbon. Econometric essays on the European Union emissions trading scheme and its impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aatola, P.

    2013-06-01

    This dissertation examines the main instrument of the European Union climate policy, the emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) during its first years. Emission trading provides a cost-efficient way to reduce emissions. It creates a price on carbon dioxide and thereby incentives for cleaner production. The four empirical studies in this dissertation provide new information on the price determination in the emissions trading market, market efficiency and market interactions with the electricity markets. This information is useful for many purposes. It benefits the market participants who make choice between trading of emission allowances in the market and abatement of emissions. For the authorities and policy planners the price signal and the efficiency of the markets reveal unique real-time information on marginal abatement costs, impacts of policy decisions and impacts of institutional design of this policy instrument. To be a well-functioning policy instrument the EU ETS should create a credible price signal and efficient markets for trading allowances. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the EU ETS markets and the price of the European Union emissions allowance, EUA, with econometric time series models. A large data set on market fundamentals is used to analyze the price series. The results of this dissertation reveal that EU ETS is functions well. Carbon has a price that reflects to a large extent the market fundamentals in the study period. The markets are maturing even if not fully informational efficient yet. Interactions with electricity markets are close. The impact of price of carbon on the price of electricity is positive but spatially uneven. In the long run, also climate change affects the electricity bill. The first study of this dissertation investigates the price determination in the market. The empirical results based on years 2005-2011 show that the price of the EUA is largely determined by the market fundamentals. Especially the price of

  12. Forecasted electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company. Volume 1 and Volume 2. Documentation manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estomin, S.L.; Beach, J.E.; Goldsmith, J.V.

    1991-05-01

    The two-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak load and electric power demand for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BG ampersand E) through the year 2009. Separate energy sales models were estimated for residential sales in Baltimore City, residential sales in the BG ampersand E service area excluding Baltimore City, commercial sales, industrial sales, streetlighting sales, and Company use plus losses. Econometric equations were also estimated for electric space heating and air conditioning saturation in Baltimore City and in the remainder of the BG ampersand E service territory. In addition to the energy sales models and the electric space conditioning saturation models, econometric models of summer and winter peak demand on the BG ampersand E system were estimated

  13. VEKTOR AUTO-REGRESI:CATATAN HISTORIS DAN PENGEMBANGAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohtar Rasyid

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of econometric time-series modeling from early development to contemporary issues. Economic structural model begins with the Keynesian macro model with a simple equation system to a system with hundreds of equations. One interesting issue in the econometric modeling of time series stationarity issue is the emergence of the new standards in advanced econometric analysis. The model system with a new approach known as VAR with emphasis in the data: let the data speak (let's Data talk. This model has become the new standard with variations VECM and several derivative models. This paper concludes with a brief discussion of new approaches to discuss the adjustments that are non-linear.

  14. Assessing the factors behind CO2 emissions changes over the phases 1 and 2 of the EU ETS: an econometric analysis. CDC Climat Research - Working Paper No. 2013-15

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gloaguen, Olivier; Alberola, Emilie

    2013-10-01

    It has been repeatedly said that the economic slowdown that began in 2008 largely explains the fall in carbon emissions recorded in Europe since the introduction of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In fact, the European Union stated this very clearly in its initial report on the operation of the EU ETS in November 2012. Using an econometric analysis based on a business-as-usual scenario, it is shown that reductions of around 1.1 GtCO 2 are likely to have been achieved within the scope of the 11.000 installations covered by the EU ETS. Of those reductions, between 600 and 700 million tonnes are said to have resulted from the two policies in the 2020 Climate and Energy Package, which aims to achieve a 20% renewable energy target (a decrease of around 500 million tonnes) and a 20% improvement in energy intensity (a decrease of between 100 and 200 million tonnes). The economic downturn also played a significant, although not dominant role in the decrease in CO 2 emissions, the impact of which was estimated at 300 million tonnes. Price substitution effects induced by coal and gas prices also seem to have affected emissions, within an order of magnitude of around 200 million tonnes. The study does not enable any impact created by the carbon price to be identified. It is important. However, to emphasize that the economic downturn and the development of RE were responsible for the decrease of the carbon price, and specifically marginalised its influence in terms of CO 2 emission reductions at the installations covered within the EU. (authors)

  15. The effect of the German and British environmental taxation reforms. A simple assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnolucci, Paolo

    2009-01-01

    This article implements a simple econometric approach to assess the effect of the environmental tax reforms introduced in Germany and the UK. Despite the very simple econometric approach adopted in this paper, in the case of the energy demand, our results do not differ markedly from those obtained from complicated multi-sectoral econometric models. In the case of the labour demand, our results differ from the estimates obtained from econometric models where the employment level is not directly influenced by the energy price. On the other hand, our results are more similar to those obtained from models where the level of employment is directly influenced by the energy price. Confirming the findings of Bosquet [2000. Environmental tax reform: does it work? A survey of the empirical evidence. Ecological Economics 34, 19-32] and OECD [2004. Environment and Employment: An Assessment Working Party on National Environmental Policy OECD, Paris], we conclude that environmental tax reforms can deliver substantial reductions in energy consumption while having small effects on the level of employment, effect which can be positive, depending on the size of the reduction in the labour costs and the value of cross-price elasticities. (author)

  16. The effect of the German and British environmental taxation reforms. A simple assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agnolucci, Paolo [The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge University, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB3 9EP (United Kingdom)

    2009-08-15

    This article implements a simple econometric approach to assess the effect of the environmental tax reforms introduced in Germany and the UK. Despite the very simple econometric approach adopted in this paper, in the case of the energy demand, our results do not differ markedly from those obtained from complicated multi-sectoral econometric models. In the case of the labour demand, our results differ from the estimates obtained from econometric models where the employment level is not directly influenced by the energy price. On the other hand, our results are more similar to those obtained from models where the level of employment is directly influenced by the energy price. Confirming the findings of Bosquet [2000. Environmental tax reform: does it work? A survey of the empirical evidence. Ecological Economics 34, 19-32] and OECD [2004. Environment and Employment: An Assessment Working Party on National Environmental Policy OECD, Paris], we conclude that environmental tax reforms can deliver substantial reductions in energy consumption while having small effects on the level of employment, effect which can be positive, depending on the size of the reduction in the labour costs and the value of cross-price elasticities. (author)

  17. Crime Pattern Analysis: A Spatial Frequent Pattern Mining Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-10

    econometrics. A companion to theoretical econometrics, pages 310-330, 1988. [5] L. Anselin, J. Cohen, D. Cook, W. Gorr, and G. Tita . Spatial analyses...52] G. Mohler, M. Short, P. Brantingham, F. Schoenberg, and G. Tita . Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American...Systems, 9:462, 2010. [69] M. Short, P. Brantingham, A. Bertozzi, and G. Tita . Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models

  18. Agglomeration, accessibility and industrial location: evidence from spanish municipalities

    OpenAIRE

    Alañón Pardo, Ángel; Arauzo Carod, Josep María

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals with the location decisions of manufacturing firms in Spain. We analyse how agglomeration economies and transport accessibility influence the location decisions of firms at municipality level and in three industries. The main empirical contributions of this paper are the econometric techniques used (spatial econometric models) and some of the explanatory variables (local gross domestic product, road accessibility, and the characteristics of firms in neighbouring municipalitie...

  19. Norway; Selected Issues

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    2005-01-01

    This Selected Issues paper analyzes inflation in Norway with a view to shedding light on this surprising development and the possible near-term course of inflation, using statistical and econometric analyses. The paper reviews recent developments of monetary policy and inflation in Norway, applies statistical and econometric tools to identify factors influencing inflation, and describes the implications of the analysis for policymaking. Using data for six advanced small open economies explici...

  20. Time Series Modeling of Army Mission Command Communication Networks: An Event-Driven Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    Lehmann, D. R. (1984). How advertising affects sales: Meta- analysis of econometric results. Journal of Marketing Research , 21, 65-74. Barabási, A. L...317-357. Leone, R. P. (1983). Modeling sales-advertising relationships: An integrated time series- econometric approach. Journal of Marketing ... Research , 20, 291-295. McGrath, J. E., & Kravitz, D. A. (1982). Group research. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 195- 230. Monge, P. R., & Contractor

  1. Two quantitative forecasting methods for macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela BRATU (SIMIONESCU

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Econometric modelling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in Czech Republic some accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2 models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables. One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.

  2. Odhad cenové elasticity poptávky po ropě

    OpenAIRE

    Jonák, Ondřej

    2009-01-01

    Objective of this diploma thesis is estimation of price elasticity of crude oil demand. In order to calculation of such elasticity crude oil demand is estimated with econometrical methods. The choice of suitable model, which sufficiently and accurately models crude oil demand, is initial position of analysis. Consequently, crude oil demand is estimated from market data obtainable from public sources. This estimated model is verified from economic, statistic and econometric point of view. Cons...

  3. Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Andrzej Toroj

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we follow the econometric approach to assess relative importance of real interest rate and real exchange rate for the monetary conditions in Poland, quantified as weights for Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). We consider both single- and multiple-equation specifications proposed in the literature with an application to Poland. Although MCI is nowadays broadly considered a rather obsolete indicator in monetary policy conduct, we argue that the econometric framework used for this ...

  4. Determinants for Labour Contract Length: A French Microeconometric Study

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Halima, Mohamed; Ben Halima, Bassem

    2008-01-01

    International audience; Two types of analyses are conducted to explain the determinants of labour contracts length. The first analysis emphasizes on the contracting costs and the level of uncertainty. The second analysis focuses on the incentive and selection effect of the contract length. This paper test the determinants for contract duration by means of econometric duration models. The estimates are carried out from French data (TDE). An econometric treatment of the endogeneity of the labou...

  5. Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Tito Moreira; Adolfo Sachsida; Loureiro Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Based on a sample of drivers in Brasilia's streets, this article investigates whether distraction explains traffic accidents. A probit model is estimated to determine the predictive power of several variables on traffic accidents. The main conclusion drawn from this study is that the proxies used to measure distraction, such as the use of cell phones and cigarette smoking in a moving vehicle, are significant factors in determining traffic accidents.

  6. Economic theory and econometric practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sauer, Johannes

    Parametric efficiency analysis is one of the most investigated areas in applied pro-duction economics. Nevertheless, the vast majority of empirical studies are not ac-companied by a thorough theoretical interpretation of the underlying functional form and the obtained estimates. The robustness......-ciency estimates. The theoretical concerns are verified by empirical applications con-firming the need for a posteriori checking the regularity of the estimated frontier by the researcher and, if necessary, the a priori imposition of the theoretical require-ments. Bootstrapping based stochastic simulations...

  7. Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    James G. MacKinnon; Anthony A. Smith Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses ways to reduce the bias of consistent estimators that are biased in finite samples. It is necessary that the bias function, which relates parameter values to bias, should be estimable by computer simulation or by some other method. If so, bias can be reduced or, in some cases that may not be unrealistic, even eliminated. In general, several evaluations of the bias function will be required to do this. Unfortunately, reducing bias may increase the variance, or even the mea...

  8. Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics.

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory, Allan W; Smith, Gregor W

    1995-01-01

    We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We also provide a concise bibliography of recent research on statistical methods for busin...

  9. A proposal of investigation in space Econometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús Mur

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Through this paper we try to discuss the current situation of the research programme in Spatial Econometrics. This discipline has grown very fast during the last decades, in quantity as well as in quality, developing a wide variety of techniques. The results seem satisfactory although there remain some inconsistencies in the way of doing Econometrics on the Spatial dimension that merit greater attention. Some of them are discussed in the paper, while others are just highlighted.

  10. THE IMPACT OF CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY ON CORPORATE VALUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana DOBRESCU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the correlation between Corporate Social Responsability actions and companies’ value. For this purpose a data base was created for 101 important companies in Romania, for years 2011 and 2012. The data was processed using Eviews 7 and SAS 9.2 softwares and the econometric variables specific determinations were interpreted in an econometric approach. A new index for the Corporate Social Responsabilitiy hierarchy levels was proposed and its applicability was demonstrated.

  11. ASSESSMENT OF CORRUPTION EFFECT ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT FLOWS

    OpenAIRE

    Sprinģis, Māris

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the impact of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Using data from the International Monetary Fund, Transparency International and United Nations conference about commerce and development data bases a cross-section econometric model was estimated to evaluate in which way and how strong corruption influence FDI inflows. Econometric modelling covers the period from year 2000 to 2007 and the data about 82 world countries that con...

  12. A TEMPLATE FOR ONLINE HOMEWORK: FRANKENSTEIN'S MONSTER OR ROBO TA?

    OpenAIRE

    Dahlgran, Roger A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the programming procedures required to implement online homework and evaluates the application of these procedures based on use in the author's course. The description of the procedures utilizes a template showing two representative applications from the author's introductory econometrics course. In one, the students are to collect and record data and in the other, students are to perform econometric analysis on the data. The web address for the template is arec.arizona.e...

  13. Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms among Sole Parents in Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Alan Duncan; Mark N. Harris

    2001-01-01

    This paper derives and estimates an econometric model of labour supply among sole parents in Australia, using modelling techniques which treat the labour supply decision as a utility maximising choice between a given number of discrete states. In estimation, we control for random preference heterogeneity as well as Þxed and search costs. Using our econometric model, we look at the e.ects of actual and hypothetical welfare policy reforms on the employment choices of sole parents in Australia. ...

  14. The Cost of Collateralized Borrowing in the Colombian Money Market: Does Connectedness Matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Constanza Martínez; Carlos León

    2014-01-01

    Under the view that the market is a weighted and directed network (Barabási, 2003), this document is a first attempt to model the Colombian money market within a spatial econometrics framework. By estimating two standard spatial econometric models, we study the cost of collateralized borrowing (i.e. sell/buy backs) among Colombian financial institutions, and its relationship with the effects induced by traditional variables (leverage, size and borrowing levels), and by spatial variables resul...

  15. Statistical – Econometric Analysis of the Correlations between the Social Security Budget and the Main Macroeconomic Aggregates in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia ŢIŢAN

    2011-02-01

    , with increases of inflation and unemployment. Among the variables used in the study we mention: total incomes, total expenditure, budgetary deficit, unemployment rate, monthly average net earnings, average number of pensioners and social allowance recipients, monthly average pension of pensioners and social allowance recipients, economically active population, monthly average inflation rate. By analysing the correlation between all the studied variables we observe that there is a strong correlation between monthly average pension and monthly average net earnings. Increases in the level of earnings will determine the increase of budget deficit. At first view the macroeconomic policy adopted by the actual government in Romania (the cut with 25 % of salaries in the budgetary system, VAT increase will have as a result the decrease of budget deficit. Since the monthly average net earnings is correlated with unemployment and inflation rate, the reduction of the general level of earnings will determine the increase of unemployment and inflation. Therefore this policy should be applied with caution, taking in parallel measures to compensate its adverse effects. The impact of some of the macroeconomic policies on budget deficit is studied using two regression functions. After an econometric analysis we shall conclude about the influence of the dependent variables of these functions on the Romanian budgetary deficit.

  16. Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Adam D M; Mytton, Oliver T; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-10-31

    To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. United Kingdom. Adults aged 16 and over. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

  17. Nonlinear dynamic simulation of optimal depletion of crude oil in the lower 48 United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruth, M.; Cleveland, C.J.

    1993-01-01

    This study combines the economic theory of optimal resource use with econometric estimates of demand and supply parameters to develop a nonlinear dynamic model of crude oil exploration, development, and production in the lower 48 United States. The model is simulated with the graphical programming language STELLA, for the years 1985 to 2020. The procedure encourages use of economic theory and econometrics in combination with nonlinear dynamic simulation to enhance our understanding of complex interactions present in models of optimal resource use. (author)

  18. Minimum Wages and Teen Employment: A Spatial Panel Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Charlene Kalenkoski; Donald Lacombe

    2011-01-01

    The authors employ spatial econometrics techniques and Annual Averages data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for 1990-2004 to examine how changes in the minimum wage affect teen employment. Spatial econometrics techniques account for the fact that employment is correlated across states. Such correlation may exist if a change in the minimum wage in a state affects employment not only in its own state but also in other, neighboring states. The authors show that state minimum wages negat...

  19. Allowing the Data to Speak Freely

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina; Johansen, Søren

    An explication of the key ideas behind the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach. The CVAR approach is related to Haavelmo's famous "Probability Approach in Econometrics" (1944). It insists on careful stochastic specification as a necessary groundwork for econometric inference and the testing...... of economic theories. In time-series data, the probability approach requires careful specification of the integration and cointegration properties of variables in systems of equations. The relationship between the CVAR approach and wider methodological issues and between it and related approaches (e...

  20. Engineering estimates versus impact evaluation of energy efficiency projects: Regression discontinuity evidence from a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lang, Corey; Siler, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Energy efficiency upgrades have been gaining widespread attention across global channels as a cost-effective approach to addressing energy challenges. The cost-effectiveness of these projects is generally predicted using engineering estimates pre-implementation, often with little ex post analysis of project success. In this paper, for a suite of energy efficiency projects, we directly compare ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings to ex post econometric estimates that use 15-min interval, building-level energy consumption data. In contrast to most prior literature, our econometric results confirm the engineering estimates, even suggesting the engineering estimates were too modest. Further, we find heterogeneous efficiency impacts by time of day, suggesting select efficiency projects can be useful in reducing peak load. - Highlights: • Regression discontinuity used to estimate energy savings from efficiency projects. • Ex post econometric estimates validate ex ante engineering estimates of energy savings. • Select efficiency projects shown to reduce peak load

  1. Modeling and forecasting the supply of oil and gas: a survey of existing approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling. The models fall into two broad categories: geologic/engineering and econometric. Two types of geologic/engineering models are surveyed - play analysis, or simulation models and discovery process models. A third category of supply models, 'hybrids', which contain features of both econometric and discovery process models are also discussed. Particular attention is paid to whether or not the models have linkages between a dynamic model of producer optimizing behaviour and the factors governing supply of the resource; whether or not expectations of future prices, costs, and other stochastic variables are incorporated; whether the physical characteristics of non-renewable resources are captured; and how well the models perform. The paper concludes that the best path for future research efforts is a hybrid approach where the econometric component is derived from a stochastic dynamic optimization model of exploration behaviour. 51 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  2. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  3. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  4. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  5. An expert system for national economy model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roljić Lazo

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS. ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1 small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2 Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP, (3 data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4 software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5 software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia. Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate

  6. Private savings and financial modernization in Mexico, 1988-95

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio Lopez G.

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of private savings has attracted a lot of attention in the controversy about the origins of Mexico's 1995 crisis. In this paper the authors analyze the evolution of private savings in Mexico using the theory of effective demand as a framework and making use of econometric estimates. In this context, they analyze the impact of the financial reforms, and in particular the effect of liberalization and deregulation of the financial system on private savings in Mexico from 1980 to 1995. The authors formulate an explanation of the determinants of private savingsand the impact of the strategy of "financial modernization" on private savings, by specifying a model that allows to identify the influence of monetary and credit policies on savings. Then they carry out econometric estimates that lend empirical support to the main conclusions of the theoretical analysis. Their econometric work confirm notably that private savings has been low due to a series of changes in monetary policy that favored the contraction of private demand and led to greater foreign indebtedness.

  7. Canadian nuclear power plant construction cost forecast and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keng, C.W.K.

    1985-01-01

    Because of the huge volume of capital required to construct a modern electric power generating station, investment decisions have to be made with as complete an understanding of the consequence of the decision as possible. This understanding must be provided by the evaluation of the situation to take place in the future. This paper attempts to use an econometric method to forecast the construction costs escalation of a standard Canadian nuclear generating station (NGS). A review of the history of Canadian nuclear electric power is provided. The major components of the construction costs of a Canadian NGS are studied and summarized. A data base is built and indexes are prepared. Based on these indexes an econometric forecasting model is constructed using an apparently new econometric methodology of forecasting modelling. Forecasts for a period of forty years are generated and applications of alternative scenario forecasts and range forecasts to uncertainty assessment are demonstrated. The indexes, the model, and the forecasts and their applications, to the best of the author's knowledge, are the very first ever done for Canadian NGS constructions

  8. Model Estimates Of Gross Domestic Product In Relation to Export And Import Of Fuels, Focused on the Elasticity and Determination Of Directly and Indirectly Associated Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is based on several interrogative assumptions related to the positive impact of the crises and the recession on determinations in the econometric models of Romania’s GDP as a variable dependent in relation to the export and import of fuels. After a short introductory section, which details, in a relative manner, the overall goal and the objectives of the paper, a first section makes use of elasticity and the modern solutions of building the coefficient of elasticity, proposing an original alternative to existing variants, and afterwards the next section builds on these statistical tools in the econometric modeling of Romania’s GDP, starting from the ratios and value indicators and offering a few original models where the export and import of fuels are the key initial explanatory factors. The final remarks reinterpret the role of the energy resources, as well as that of the related flows, in enhancing statistical connections, and especially the role of crises and recessions in validating econometric models, by raising their degree of predictability.

  9. Essays on high frequency financial econometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.

    2015-01-01

    It has long been demonstrated that continuous-time methods are powerful tools in financial modeling. Yet only in recent years, their counterparts in empirical analysis—high frequency econometrics—began to emerge with the availability of intra-day data and relevant statistical tools. This

  10. Econometric Studies of Stock Market Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    This thesis consists of three sefcontained essays, all centering around the topic of stock market behaviour. The papers focus on the empirical performance of a number of asset pricing models, all attempting to quantify and price asset risk. We look at how well these models actually do in describing...... the historic behaviour of the stock market, allowing us to get further insight into what drives the markes....

  11. On Multivariate Methods in Robust Econometrics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 69-82 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06014 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : least weighted squares * heteroscedasticity * multivariate statistics * model selection * diagnostics * computational aspects Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.561, year: 2012 http://www.vse.cz/pep/abstrakt.php?IDcl=411

  12. Some Diagnostic Tools in Robust Econometrics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 2 (2011), s. 55-67 ISSN 0231-9721 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA402/09/0557 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : robust regression * autocorrelated errors * heteroscedastic regression * instrumental variables * least weighted squares Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://dml.cz/handle/10338.dmlcz/141754

  13. AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH ABOUT VOLUNTARY TURNOVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADALET EREN

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes individual and organizational variables that affect voluntary turnover are determined in the special defence and security companies. A binomial logistic regression model is used to estimate voluntary turnover.  Binomial Logistic regression, reliability test (scale alfa, variance (ANOVA, Post-hoc/Tukey, correlation (Pearson and other basic statistical techniques  with SPSS 13 statistical packet program was used in the analyzes ofresearch data. The study finds that; situation of suppose working, number of child, number of death child, number of home’s moving, support of rent, total monthly income of household, last work’s region, number of prizes, affect voluntary turnover are determined.

  14. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  15. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadren, M.

    1998-01-01

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

  16. Production and efficiency analysis with R

    CERN Document Server

    Behr, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    This textbook introduces essential topics and techniques in production and efficiency analysis and shows how to apply these methods using the statistical software R. Numerous small simulations lead to a deeper understanding of random processes assumed in the models and of the behavior of estimation techniques. Step-by-step programming provides an understanding of advanced approaches such as stochastic frontier analysis and stochastic data envelopment analysis. The text is intended for master students interested in empirical production and efficiency analysis. Readers are assumed to have a general background in production economics and econometrics, typically taught in introductory microeconomics and econometrics courses.

  17. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  18. Forecasting Canadian nuclear power station construction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keng, C.W.K.

    1985-01-01

    Because of the huge volume of capital required to construct a modern electric power generating station, investment decisions have to be made with as complete an understanding of the consequences of the decision as possible. This understanding must be provided by the evaluation of future situations. A key consideration in an evaluation is the financial component. This paper attempts to use an econometric method to forecast the construction costs escalation of a standard Canadian nuclear generating station (NGS). A brief review of the history of Canadian nuclear electric power is provided. The major components of the construction costs of a Canadian NGS are studied and summarized. A database is built and indexes are prepared. Based on these indexes, an econometric forecasting model is constructed using an apparently new econometric methodology of forecasting modelling. Forecasts for a period of 40 years are generated and applications (such as alternative scenario forecasts and range forecasts) to uncertainty assessment and/or decision-making are demonstrated. The indexes, the model, and the forecasts and their applications, to the best of the author's knowledge, are the first for Canadian NGS constructions. (author)

  19. Structures and perspectives of the Austrian energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wohlgemut, N.

    1992-03-01

    The technical tools for projecting future energy demand can be grouped into two broad categories: Firstly, time series or cross section data based econometric models which contain information about customers' past behavior and thus enable to judge the causal effects of economic factors like incomes and prices on energy demand (passive forecasting). Secondly, structural simulation models which indicate how energy services transform to flows of useful, final and primary energy. These models enable to estimate the technical potential of improving the energy application and energy transformation systems (active scenario approach). Comparison of the two approaches with respect to projections for future energy demand yields that, typically, in the short run of econometric approach will dominate the structural simulation model. In the long run, however, this relation will be reversed. The econometric models suffer lack of technical information necessary to describe the demand for energy. The structural simulation model enables an incorporation of technical factors like efficiencies and fuel shares. An application of the structural model is a simulation run describing a scenario in order to reduce the Austrian CO 2 -emissions according to the recommendations of the conference of Toronto

  20. Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

    2012-11-01

    We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

  1. Novas conformações metodológicas em relação à jurimetria: discussão teórica e implicações práticas para a regulação de preços no Brasil / New Methodological Contours regarding Jurimetrics: Theoretical Discussion and Practical Implications to Brazilian Price Regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Medeiros de Castro

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – This paper discusses how quantitative methods can be used to improve the understanding of juridical phenomena. As research hypothesis, this article maintains that this methodology is not frequently used in Brazilian Law, which, in turn, prevents the diagnosis of social injustices, hinders the improvement of institutions, makes it harder to discuss burden of proof and overshadows the debate of price regulation. Methodology – After a review of the literature on the theoretical debate about the subject, this study takes an econometric approach, using 5 models, to verify if Brazilian Legal Academic Research uses quantitative language. Also, it identifies what would be the impact on society resulted from a quantitative-silence on Legal Studies. Findings – None of 1,723 thesis of Legal Academic Research made any Econometric regression. There was a low level of quantitative discussion in the analyzed sample. This finding is particularly problematic, especially in Brazil, where quantitative debate is needed to prevent some unfair legal standards, which in turn hinders the improvement of society, even in regulatory aspects. Practical implications – The article sheds light on the need to foster an interdisciplinary agenda between Law and Econometrics.

  2. Inversión pública y crecimiento económico en México. Un enfoque de contabilidad del crecimiento

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaspar Núñez Rodríguez

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The evolution of public investment in Mexico during the last 50 years is analyzed, as is the evolution of Total Factor Productivity (TFP. Using as a framework the theory of endogenous growth and the theory of growth accounting, an econometric model to account for the TFP is specified, including among the regressors a dissagregation of investment into private investment and public investment. Econometric results suggest that, the dramatic downfall experienced by public investment during the last 30 years, has significantly influenced TFP decrease. An additional result is that regressions indicate a high return rate to formal education.

  3. Assessing the need for power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chern, W.S.; Just, R.E.

    1982-01-01

    The growing controversy over nuclear power has demanded a critical evaluation of the need for power to justify proposed nuclear power plants. This paper discusses the use of an econometric model developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to conduct an independent assessment of electricity demand forecasts related to the licensing of nuclear power plants. The model forecasts electricity demand and price by sector and by state. The estimation and forecasting results for the New England region are presented as a case in point where an econometric model has been used to analyse alternative fuel price scenarios and to aid substantive public decision making regarding new nuclear power plant decisions. (author)

  4. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  5. The effect of expected energy prices on energy demand: implications for energy conservation and carbon taxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.

    1994-01-01

    This paper describes an empirical method for estimating the effect of expected prices on energy demand. Data for expected oil prices are compiled from forecasts for real oil prices. The effect of expectations on energy demand is simulated with an expectation variable that proxies the return on investment for energy efficient capital. Econometric results indicate that expected prices have a significant effect on energy demand in the US between 1975 and 1989. A model built from the econometric results indicates that the way in which consumers anticipate changes in energy prices that are generated by a carbon tax affects the quantity of emissions abated by the tax. 14 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  6. The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  7. Biomass energy from wood chips: Diesel fuel dependence?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timmons, Dave; Mejia, Cesar Viteri

    2010-01-01

    Most renewable energy sources depend to some extent on use of other, non-renewable sources. In this study we explore use of diesel fuel in producing and transporting woody biomass in the state of New Hampshire, USA. We use two methods to estimate the diesel fuel used in woody biomass production: 1) a calculation based on case studies of diesel consumption in different parts of the wood chip supply chain, and 2) to support extrapolating those results to a regional system, an econometric study of the variation of wood-chip prices with respect to diesel fuel prices. The econometric study relies on an assumption of fixed demand, then assesses variables impacting supply, with a focus on how the price of diesel fuel affects price of biomass supplied. The two methods yield similar results. The econometric study, representing overall regional practices, suggests that a $1.00 per liter increase in diesel fuel price is associated with a $5.59 per Mg increase in the price of wood chips. On an energy basis, the diesel fuel used directly in wood chip production and transportation appears to account for less than 2% of the potential energy in the wood chips. Thus, the dependence of woody biomass energy production on diesel fuel does not appear to be extreme. (author)

  8. Industrial energy demand and the effect of taxes, agreements and subsidies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bue Bjoerner, T.; Holm Jensen, H.

    2000-10-01

    This report presents an econometric analysis of industrial companies demand for energy. The effect of energy taxes, energy agreements and subsidies to investments in energy efficiency, which have been applied as policy instruments in Denmark since 1993, is also quantified. The econometric analysis is based on an extensive database, which contains information on industrial companies consumption of energy and their value added in a number of years covering the period 1983 to 1997 (information from the years 1983, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1996 and 1997 is included). The database has been constructed by combining information from different registers in Statistics Denmark. The database contains information on the majority of all existing industrial companies with more than 20 employees (from 1995 to 1997 primary data on energy consumption were only collected for half the industrial companies with 20-50 employees). The database has a panel (longitudinal) nature, where each industrial company can be followed over time. This makes it possible to compare energy consumption in companies before and after they have been given a subsidy to invest in energy efficiency or entered an energy agreement with the Danish Energy Agency. The econometric analysis utilises the panel nature of the data by relying on so-called fixed effect estimators. (EHS)

  9. Annual report of the Econometrics Center, 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    Research on social decision making theory and voting; public regulation and pricing; spatial planning of real estate markets; technological risks and crisis management; and private demands on public services is presented [fr

  10. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray Christopher JL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  11. Wheat yield dynamics: a structural econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Afsin; Akdi, Yilmaz; Arslan, Fahrettin

    2007-10-15

    In this study we initially have tried to explore the wheat situation in Turkey, which has a small-open economy and in the member countries of European Union (EU). We have observed that increasing the wheat yield is fundamental to obtain comparative advantage among countries by depressing domestic prices. Also the changing structure of supporting schemes in Turkey makes it necessary to increase its wheat yield level. For this purpose, we have used available data to determine the dynamics of wheat yield by Ordinary Least Square Regression methods. In order to find out whether there is a linear relationship among these series we have checked each series whether they are integrated at the same order or not. Consequently, we have pointed out that fertilizer usage and precipitation level are substantial inputs for producing high wheat yield. Furthermore, in respect for our model, fertilizer usage affects wheat yield more than precipitation level.

  12. Food Prices Transmission In Rwanda: Econometric Analysis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ahavugimana

    (2010) found that if markets are efficient and policies are not an obstacle to their operation, changes in the world price of any given commodity should be similarly reflected in changes in domestic prices – phenomenon known as 'price transmission'. In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods have ...

  13. Annual report of the Center for Econometrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    Research on social decision making theory and voting; public regulation and pricing; spatial planning of real estate markets; technological risks and crisis management; and private demands on public services is presented [fr

  14. ECONOMETRIC INEFFICIENCY ESTIMATES IN A COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Bernard Bastiaan Rivera Rivera

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available

    The objective of this paper is to apply a Cobb-Douglas, Translog Stochastic Production Function and Data Envelopment Analysis – particularly the Malmquist index - in order to estimate increases or decreases of inefficiencies over time as well as the sources of TFP changes for the main Brazilian grain crops - namely, rice, beans, maize, soybeans and wheat - throughout the most recent data available comprising the period 2001-2006. According to the Cobb Douglas model, the greatest elasticity presented is that of harvested area, followed by agricultural credit and limestone. The Translog production function presents an amelioration of aggregate productivity over time and, in a decreasing order, the Brazilian regions that have presented the greatest relative degree of efficiency are the Northeast, North, Southeast, South and Center-West regions. The results indicate that, although there have been positive changes in TFP for the sample analyzed, a decline in the use of technology has been evidenced for all the principal Brazilian grain crops between 2005/2007 – period in which we observe a remarkable downfall in the use of inputs in Brazilian agriculture.

  15. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  16. Income Status and Homeownership: Micro-econometric Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-09-01

    Sep 1, 2013 ... One of the core ambition of Federal Government staff of Nigeria is to own a home in urban areas. Generally ... Key words:Home ownership, income status, Simplistic Linear Probability Model, fiscal. Policies .... statistical area adjusted by socioeconomic and housing ... affects the country distribution of U.S..

  17. A history of the histories of econometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, Marcel; Dupont-Kieffer, Ariane

    2011-01-01

    Econometricians have from the start considered historical knowledge of their own discipline as reflexive knowledge useful for delineating their discipline, that is, for setting its disciplinary boundaries with respect to its aims, its methods, and its scientific values. As such, the histories

  18. Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Clare; Hall, Stephen; Mabey, N.

    1995-01-01

    An economometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, aiming to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long-term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. (author)

  19. Income Status and Homeownership: Micro-econometric Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the core ambition of Federal Government staff of Nigeria is to own a home in urban areas. Generally, Income status plays a very significant role in the determination of home ownership in modern economies. Given the prominence of home ownership as a microeconomic success (utility) in Nigeria, Government and ...

  20. The cost of electricity distribution in Italy: a quantitative analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarpa, C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the cost of medium and low tension electricity distribution in Italy. An econometric analysis of the cost function is proposed, on the basis of data on 147 zones of the dominant firm, ENEL. Data are available only for 1996, which has forced to carry out only a cross-section OLS analysis. The econometric estimate shows the existence of significant scale economies, that the current organisational structure does not exploit. On this basis is also possible to control to what extent exogenous cost drivers affect costs. The role of numerous exogenous factors considered seems however quite limited. The area of the distribution zone and an indicator of quality are the only elements that appear significant from an economic viewpoint [it

  1. MODEL OF ANALYSIS IN THE ROMANIAN FOOTWEAR INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimi OFILEANU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to determine the influence that exports of footwear industry have on the turnover of the sector. In the work, a period of 9 years is taken into consideration: from 2004 to 2012, establishing an econometric model of analysis of the connection between the turnover and direct exports of footwear industry in Romania. Based on the analyzed empirical data, the work answers to the following question: what is the influence that exports of footwear industry have on sector’s turnover? In addition to specifying the econometric model which describes the connection between the two variables, we also test the validity of the model and the intensity of the connection between the two variables.

  2. No evidence of chaos but some evidence of dependence in the US stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serletis, Apostolos; Shintani, Mototsugu

    2003-01-01

    This paper uses recent advances in the field of applied econometrics and tools from dynamical systems theory to test for random walks and chaos in the US stock market, using daily observations on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (from January 3, 1928 to October 18, 2000 - a total of 18,490 observations). In doing so, we follow the recent contribution by Whang and Linton [J Econometr 91 (1999) 1] and construct the standard error for the Nychka et al. [J Roy Statist Soc B 54 (1992) 399] dominant Lyapunov exponent, thereby providing a statistical test of chaos. We find statistically significant evidence against low-dimensional chaos and point to the use of stochastic models and statistical inference in the modeling of asset markets

  3. Firm performance and employment in the EU emissions trading scheme: An empirical assessment for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anger, Niels; Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2008-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the role of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for firm performance and employment in Germany. We provide an overview of relative allowance allocation within the EU ETS as well as an econometric analysis for a large sample of German firms covered by the scheme in order to assess the impacts of EU emissions regulation on both firm revenues and employment. The dataset indicates that the EU ETS was in an overall long position in 2005, although allowance allocation was very heterogeneous across member states. Our econometric analysis suggests that, within the first phase of the EU ETS, relative allowance allocation did not have a significant impact on firm performance and employment of regulated German firms

  4. MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION TARGETING IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoni Antoni

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The danger of inflation has been the focus of many central banks. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and inflation targeting in Malaysia with a backward-looking aggregate supply and demand analysis. The manage floating regime applied in the country has an important role in achieving a stable exchange rate against its major trading partners. It also analyzes the policy of maintaining the soundness of interest rate to perceive inflation targeting to increase its economic growth. Using 1991-2004 data and a traditional structural econometric model, it shows that output gap is important in forecasting a domestic inflation rate by controlling the interest rate.  Keywords: Inflation targeting, monetary economics, structural econometric modelJEL classification numbers: E3, E52

  5. ANÁLISIS Y PRONÓSTICO DEL PRECIO DE LA VIVIENDA EN ESPAÑA: MODELO ECONOMÉTRICO DESDE UNA PERSPECTIVA CONDUCTUAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaume Roig Hernando

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper develops an econometric model of the real estate cycle, focused on the analysis of the residential market in Spain, and aims to predict the future evolution of the average and fundamental prices of the housing industry. Unlike traditional models, the Econometric Model developed incorporates not only an extrinsic and intrinsic approach, but also analytical assumptions and criteria inherited from the Behavioral School. Contrasting the Modern Financial School theory, the Behavioral Finance School assumes the presence of irrational investors in the market. Thereby irrational decisions substantially influence, in a persistent way, whether underestimating or overestimating, the evolution of asset prices. This irrational influence is the fundamental basis of both expansive and depressive phases that shape the real estate cycle.

  6. No evidence of chaos but some evidence of dependence in the US stock market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos E-mail: serletis@ucalgary.ca; Shintani, Mototsugu E-mail: mototsugu.shintani@vanderbilt.edu

    2003-07-01

    This paper uses recent advances in the field of applied econometrics and tools from dynamical systems theory to test for random walks and chaos in the US stock market, using daily observations on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (from January 3, 1928 to October 18, 2000 - a total of 18,490 observations). In doing so, we follow the recent contribution by Whang and Linton [J Econometr 91 (1999) 1] and construct the standard error for the Nychka et al. [J Roy Statist Soc B 54 (1992) 399] dominant Lyapunov exponent, thereby providing a statistical test of chaos. We find statistically significant evidence against low-dimensional chaos and point to the use of stochastic models and statistical inference in the modeling of asset markets.

  7. Quasi-experimental Methods in Empirical Regional Science and Policy Analysis – Is there a Scope for Application?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mitze, Timo; Paloyo, Alfredo R.; Alecke, Björn

    Applied econometrics has recently emphasized the identification of causal parameters for policy analysis. This revolution has yet to fully propagate to the field of regional science. We examine the scope for application of the matching approach – part of the modern applied econometrics toolkit...... – in regional science and highlight special features of regional data that make such an application difficult. In particular, our analysis of the effect of regional subsidies on labor-productivity growth in Germany indicates that such policies are effective, but only up to a certain maximum treatment intensity...... to be interpreted with some caution. The matching approach nevertheless can be of great value for regional policy analysis and should be the subject of future research efforts in the field of empirical regional science....

  8. Progress in spatial analysis methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Páez, Antonio; Buliung, Ron N; Dall'erba, Sandy

    2010-01-01

    This book brings together developments in spatial analysis techniques, including spatial statistics, econometrics, and spatial visualization, and applications to fields such as regional studies, transportation and land use, population and health.

  9. Deregulation and Macroeconomic Drivers Of Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Deregulation and Macroeconomic Drivers Of Foreign Direct Investment In Nigerian Agriculture (1970 -2009): An Econometric Analysis. ... The study showed that foreign exchange and the economic deregulation policy of Nigerian government ...

  10. An assessment of Nigeria's agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , after twenty-seven years, were subjected to macro econometric analysis, presumably the first quantitative approach to the scheme, with the objective of providing useful results, deducing policy implications, and perhaps, policy options.

  11. Economic and Juridical Aspects of the Oil Transport with VLCC Ships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin-Dan Pușcaciu

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Through this paper we propose to address some issues related to maritime transport of oil by large ships. As well known oil represents an important energy source for both production and consumption for the household. Its importance has generated military conflicts and also the "shock", though did not lead to loss of life deeply affected the world economy and ultimately the welfare of the inhabitants of the planet. The high asymmetry of the sources of supply to those of the consumer involves the transport of oil that although it may seem like a simple activity is complementary, in reality constituted a very active area involved in the marketing of transport services market recorded a transport offer rigid, and his reaction is one with a delayed effect, due to a relative period required large construction vessels. In this context we achieve a short-term forecast of the evolution of spot rates for VLCC vessels. The work is within the scope of Econometric research including fundamental works of Tinbergen and Koopmans. The methods used are both quantitative and quantitative methods. As required any software we chose one free econometric namely an approach. Among Gretl the interdisciplinary work we believe the theme addresses a varied group of theorists and practitioners imply in the interdisciplinary approach field and modern econometric analysis tools we consider that adds theoretical clarification.

  12. : tous les projets | Page 208 | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    ... CHILDREN, CONSUMER DEMAND, FINANCIAL POLICY, COST ANALYSIS ... du tabac dans les pays à revenu élevé sont devenues de plus en plus précises, ... Fiscal policy, ECONOMETRIC MODELS, PRICING, CONSUMER DEMAND.

  13. El fenómeno económico .Análisis y cuantificación

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Llorente Marrón ,M.M.

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available El objeto de la ciencia económica consiste, en un sentido amplio, en el estudio de la adopción de decisiones por parte de los agentes económicos, y en el análisis de sus consecuencias. La Econometría se ocupa de la medición y verificación empírica de las relaciones económicas, esto es, del estudio de las estructuras que permiten analizar las características y propiedades de una variable económica, utilizando como causas explicativas otras variables económicas. "La Econometría, que es el resultado de la adopción de una posición sobre el papel que juega la Economía, consiste en la aplicación de la Estadística Matemática a los datos económicos con el objeto de proporcionar no sólo un apoyo empírico a los modelos construidos por la Economía Matemática, sino una forma de obtener resultados numéricos"1. “Teniendo en cuenta la relación entre Teoría Económica y su cuantificación, la econometría puede definirse en sentido restringido como la cuantificación de las regularidades de las relaciones de la Teoría Económica”2 En el manual de Intriligator editado en 1978, el capítulo I establece que la Econometría es la rama de la Economía relacionada con la estimación empírica de las relaciones económicas utilizando la Teoría Económica, incorporada en un modelo econométrico, hechos resumidos en datos pertinentes y la Estadística teórica, adecuada para la técnicas econométricas al objeto de medir y contrastar empíricamente ciertas relaciones entre variables económicas,

  14. Evaluation of South Africa's excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    It will adopt a four-pronged approach, which will document and investigate the ... effort incorporating both quantitative and qualitative methods such as econometric ... social science, population and public health, and health systems research ...

  15. Health consequences of the Russian weather

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Otrachshenko, V.; Popova, Olga; Solomin, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 132, February (2017), s. 290-306 ISSN 0921-8009 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : health * mortality * temperature Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 2.965, year: 2016

  16. Intrafirm planning and mathematical modeling of owner's equity in industrial enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponomareva, S. V.; Zheleznova, I. V.

    2018-05-01

    The article aims to review the different approaches to intrafirm planning of owner's equity in industrial enterprises. Since charter capital, additional capital and reserve capital do not change in the process of enterprise activity, the main interest lies on the field of share repurchases from shareholders and retained earnings within the owner's equity of the enterprise. In order to study the effect of share repurchases on the activities of the enterprise, let us use such mathematical methods as event study and econometric modeling. This article describes the step-by-step algorithm of carrying out event study and justifies the choice of Logit model in econometric analysis. The article represents basic results of conducted regression analysis on the effect of share repurchases on the key financial indicators in industrial enterprises.

  17. Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Saten

    2013-06-01

    This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run.

  18. Industrial companies' demand for electricity. Evidence from a micropanel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerner, T.B.; Togeby, M.; Jensen, H.H.

    2001-01-01

    The paper presents a micro-econometric analysis of industrial companies' demand for electricity. Previous studies on electricity consumption in the industrial sector have relied on aggregate data or cross-section observations. Here we present an econometric study on electricity demand based on a panel of 2949 Danish companies followed from 1983 to 1996. It is found that estimators of electricity demand that take account of the panel structure (fixed effect models) yield considerably lower price and production elasticities compared to estimators that do not (like cross-section models). It is also investigated how various company characteristics like size, type of industrial sub-sector and electricity intensity in production influence price and production elasticities. It appears that companies with a high electricity intensity also have a high own-price elasticity

  19. Structural breaks and energy efficiency in Fiji

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhaskara Rao, B.; Rao, Gyaneshwar

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines how energy-output ratios (EYRs) in Fiji have responded to the major energy crises and in particular if these ratios have declined after the energy shocks. The expectation is that energy efficiency should improve after an energy crisis. For this purpose we have used at first a few simpler procedures and then a recently developed more powerful tests for structural breaks by Bai and Perron [Bai, J., Perron, P., 1998. Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica 66, 47-78; Bai, J., Perron, P., 2003a. Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18, 1-22; Bai, J., Perron, P., 2003b. Critical values for multiple structural change tests. Econometrics Journal 6, 72-78]. Policy implications of our results are discussed.

  20. The Danish tax on saturated fat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Smed, Sinne

    2013-01-01

    and oils. This assessment is done by conducting an econometric analysis on weekly food purchase data from a large household panel dataset (GfK Consumer Tracking Scandinavia), spanning the period from January 2008 until July 2012.The econometric analysis suggest that the introduction of the tax on saturated...... and fats, a shift that seems to have been utilized by discount chains to raise the prices of butter and margarine by more than the pure tax increase. Due to the relatively short data period with the tax being active, interpretation of these findings from a long-run perspective should be done...... with considerable care. It is thus recommended to repeat – and broaden – the analysis at a later stage, when data are available for a longer period after the introduction of the fat tax....

  1. Exploiting the cointegration properties of U.S. pork - related markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Babula, Ronald; Lund, Mogens

    We apply methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression or VAR model to quar-terly U.S. pork-related markets, from the farm gate upstream, to the downstream markets for processed pork and sausage. This study extends prior VAR econometric work by concentrating on the upstream/downstream relatio......We apply methods of the cointegrated vector autoregression or VAR model to quar-terly U.S. pork-related markets, from the farm gate upstream, to the downstream markets for processed pork and sausage. This study extends prior VAR econometric work by concentrating on the upstream....../downstream relationships between the U.S. farm market for pork and markets for processed pork and sausage. Results include a U.S. long run demand for pork, as well as empirical estimates of specific market events on these three pork-related markets....

  2. Sectoral Price Divergence between Korea and Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seongman Moon

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the persistent properties of 12 sectoral relative prices between Korea and Japan obtained following the Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose (COICOP over the period of 1985-2016. Applying a new econometric method developed by Pesaran which controls for the cross-section dependence in a panel, we are not able to reject the hypothesis that the sectoral real exchange rates contain a common stochastic trend. On the other hand, the well-known panel unit root tests such as the IPS and LLC tests widely used by previous studies strongly reject the unit root hypothesis. Since the error term of the regression for our panel exhibits significant cross-section dependence, these opposite results justify that the use of the new econometric method is appropriate.

  3. 78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-08

    ... the Census Bureau on the uses of scientific developments in statistical data collection, statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  4. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-10

    ... the U.S. Census Bureau on the uses of scientific developments in statistical data collection, statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and... following disciplines: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  5. Search Results | Page 184 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Econometric analysis reveals that education level, age and gender of the ... and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts for the agricultural sector ... Data on brain drain in Africa is scarce and inconsistent; however, statistics ...

  6. A field experiment on search costs and the formation of scientific collaborations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Boudreau, K. J.; Brady, T.; Ganguli, I.; Gaulé, Patrick; Guinan, E.; Hollenberg, A.; Lakhani, K. R.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 99, č. 4 (2017), s. 565-576 ISSN 0034-6535 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : search costs * scientific collaborations Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 2.926, year: 2016

  7. Effects of labor reallocation on productivity and inequality—insights from studies on transition

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Tyrowicz, J.; van der Velde, L.; Švejnar, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 31, č. 3 (2017), s. 712-732 ISSN 0950-0804 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : job creation * job destruction * transition Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.100, year: 2016

  8. Economics Of Honey Production In Nigeria: Implications For Poverty ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Global Approaches to Extension Practice: A Journal of Agricultural Extension ... indicates that honey production is very profitable with a gross income of 890 naira per ... Econometric analysis shows that number of hives, labour and fixed assets ...

  9. Asymptotics of diagonal elements of projection matrices under many instruments/regressors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Anatolyev, Stanislav; Yaskov, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 3 (2017), s. 717-738 ISSN 0266-4666 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : instrumental variable estimation * inference * models Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 1.011, year: 2016

  10. Risk preferences under acute stress

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Cahlíková, Jana; Cingl, L.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 1 (2017), s. 209-236 ISSN 1386-4157 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : risk preferences * risk aversion * stress Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.391, year: 2016

  11. A field experiment on search costs and the formation of scientific collaborations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Boudreau, K. J.; Brady, T.; Ganguli, I.; Gaulé, Patrick; Guinan, E.; Hollenberg, A.; Lakhani, K. R.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 99, č. 4 (2017), s. 565-576 ISSN 0034-6535 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : search costs * scientific collaborations Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 2.926, year: 2016

  12. The influence of attitudes toward immigrants on international migration

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gorinas, C.; Pytliková, Mariola

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 51, č. 2 (2017), s. 416-451 ISSN 0197-9183 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : international migration * attitudes toward immigrants Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.195, year: 2016

  13. Knowledge base combinations and innovation performance in Swedish regions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grillitsch, M.; Martin, R.; Srholec, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 93, č. 5 (2017), s. 458-479 ISSN 0013-0095 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : knowledge base * knowledge combination * region Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 5.344, year: 2016

  14. Manipulation of procurement contracts: evidence from the introduction of discretionary thresholds

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Palguta, Ján; Pertold, F.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 2 (2017), s. 293-315 ISSN 1945-7731 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : public procurement * contracts * corruption Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 3.133, year: 2016

  15. An econometrics method to estimate demand of sugar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negar Seyed Soleimany

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sugar is one of the strategic goods in the basket of households in each country and it plays an important role in supplying the required energy. On the other hand, it is one of the goods, which Iranian government is about to change its subsidy strategies. To design useful sugar subsidy strategies, it is necessary to know sugar position in the basket of households and be familiar with households' sugar demand or consumption behavior. This research estimates sugar demand for Iranian households by using time series of 1984-2008, which is taken from central bank of Iran. In this paper, first independent and dependent variables of household sugar demand model are chosen based on the literature review and theory of demand. Then, sugar demand is estimated by OLS technique and linear regression. The preliminary statistical observations such as Durbin-Watson, F statistic and R2 indicate that the regression is admissible. The results seem plausible and consistent with theory and show that sugar demand in Iranian households is associated with household expenditure, relative sugar price, family size and indicate that demand of sugar is affected during the war time. The results also show the income elasticity is 0.8 and price elasticity is -0.2 which means sugar is essential good for Iranian households and is inelastic to price.

  16. Econometric Analysis of Marketing Costs: A Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuwornu, J.K.M.; Abboah, R.; Amegashie, D.P.K.; Kuiper, W.E.

    2009-01-01

    This study analyzes the marketing costs of a pineapple producing and export firm (Bomart Farms) in Ghana. Con­ sistent with the existing literature, we categorize marketing costs into assembling, processing, and distribution costs. The assembling cost comprises of cost of crating and loading fresh

  17. Hydrogen production econometric studies. [hydrogen and fossil fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, J. R.; Bannerot, R. B.

    1975-01-01

    The current assessments of fossil fuel resources in the United States were examined, and predictions of the maximum and minimum lifetimes of recoverable resources according to these assessments are presented. In addition, current rates of production in quads/year for the fossil fuels were determined from the literature. Where possible, costs of energy, location of reserves, and remaining time before these reserves are exhausted are given. Limitations that appear to hinder complete development of each energy source are outlined.

  18. Use of econometric models to estimate expenditure shares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trogdon, Justin G; Finkelstein, Eric A; Hoerger, Thomas J

    2008-08-01

    To investigate the use of regression models to calculate disease-specific shares of medical expenditures. Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), 2000-2003. Theoretical investigation and secondary data analysis. Condition files used to define the presence of 10 medical conditions. Incremental effects of conditions on expenditures, expressed as a fraction of total expenditures, cannot generally be interpreted as shares. When the presence of one condition increases treatment costs for another condition, summing condition-specific shares leads to double-counting of expenditures. Condition-specific shares generated from multiplicative models should not be summed. We provide an algorithm that allows estimates based on these models to be interpreted as shares and summed across conditions.

  19. Lost Productivity in Stroke Survivors: An Econometrics Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Manav V; Hackam, Daniel G; Silver, Frank L; Laporte, Audrey; Kapral, Moira K

    2016-01-01

    Stroke leads to a substantial societal economic burden. Loss of productivity among stroke survivors is a significant contributor to the indirect costs associated with stroke. We aimed to characterize productivity and factors associated with employability in stroke survivors. We used the Canadian Community Health Survey 2011-2012 to identify stroke survivors and employment status. We used multivariable logistic models to determine the impact of stroke on employment and on factors associated with employability, and used Heckman models to estimate the effect of stroke on productivity (number of hours worked/week and hourly wages). We included data from 91,633 respondents between 18 and 70 years and identified 923 (1%) stroke survivors. Stroke survivors were less likely to be employed (adjusted OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46) and had hourly wages 17.5% (95% CI 7.7-23.7) lower compared to the general population, although there was no association between work hours and being a stroke survivor. We found that factors like older age, not being married, and having medical comorbidities were associated with lower odds of employment in stroke survivors in our sample. Stroke survivors are less likely to be employed and they earn a lower hourly wage than the general population. Interventions such as dedicated vocational rehabilitation and policies targeting return to work could be considered to address this lost productivity among stroke survivors. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Applying econometrics to the carbon dioxide "control knob".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a "feedback" from rising temperatures initially resulting only from "non-condensing" GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H(2)O]). However, this paper shows that "initial radiative forcing" is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H(2)O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective "control knob" as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010).

  1. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON VOTE-POPULARITY FUNCTION FOR ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICOLAE-MARIUS JULA

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The regional analysis in Romania confirms the hypothesis of a significant correlation between the status of the economy and political behaviour of the electors. The level and the dynamic of the unemployment at regional level have an influence on vote behaviour, as stated by the partisan political business cycle theory: in the areas with a higher unemployment rate there is a voting preference (tendency towards the political left wing. This conclusion is interesting for a political perspective. If the unemployment electors carry their votes toward left, the left wing government in office between 1992-1996 and 2000-2004 promotes an economic policy that outcomes in a diminishing the electoral support for this party: during these periods, the global unemployment rate decreased from 8.2% to 6.6% in first period (1992-1996 and from 12.3% to 6.3% in the second. Moreover, the partisan electoral behaviour hypothesis affirms that the private entrepreneurs and the self-employed vote toward right-wing parties. That means that electoral support for left party in office during the mentioned periods was also reduced by another result of the reform, namely the strong increase in the number of registered companies (large numbers of them are limited liability companies. A political analogous situation was recorded during the 1996-2000 legislatures. The global unemployment rate increased and the business environment became unfavourable, leading to a decrease of the electoral support for the right-wing governmental coalition in office.In Romania, regarding the elections from 2008-2009, a new electoral law was introduced. The main changes concerned the election of chairpersons of county councils by uninominal voting, separating general and presidential elections and the introduction uninominal voting system for parliamentary elections, with a correction of the total number of seats with the total number of votes obtained by each party on national level.

  2. Energy consumption projection of Nepal: An econometric approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parajuli, Ranjan; Østergaard, Poul A.; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2014-01-01

    In energy dependent economies, energy consumption is often linked with the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Energy intensity, defined herewith, as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption (TPE) to the GDP, is a useful concept for understanding the relation between energy demand...... and economic development. The scope of this article is to assess the future primary energy consumption of Nepal, and the projection is carried out along with the formulation of simple linear logarithmic energy consumption models. This initiates with a hypothesis that energy consumption is dependent...... with the national macro-economic parameters. To test the hypothesis, nexus between energy consumption and possible determinant variables are examined. Status of energy consumption between the period of 1996 and 2009, and for the same period, growth of economic parameters are assessed. Three scenarios are developed...

  3. Econometric Analysis of Youth Smoking Behavior in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Zeynep Önder

    2012-01-01

    The report is organized as follows. The information about the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) is provided in the first part. The second part gives some descriptive statistics about the prevalence rate of students and their consumption based on several characteristics observed in the survey. The third part presents the empirical model and the variables used to estimate the probability of...

  4. An econometric examination of growth, unemployment and poverty ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Unemployment, on the other hand, refers to a state of joblessness or an involuntary idleness of a person willing to work at the prevailing rate of pay but unable to find it while poverty is generally conceptualized as lack of adequate resources to obtain and consume a certain bundle of goods and services. This work on an ...

  5. An Econometric Approach to Exchange Control Liberalization and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as the private sector which lead to improved efficiency and economic growth. ... account exchange controls (Bank of Botswana, 2000). .... Ai is a (6*6) matrix of parameters ..... employment, terms of trade and exchange control liberalisation.

  6. An Econometric Examination of Growth, Unemployment and Poverty ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. OLIVER OSUAGWA

    2014-06-01

    Jun 1, 2014 ... 2Department Of Social Sciences, Federal Poly Nekede, 08039416782 ... significantly reduce the high level of income inequality which is crucial for poverty alleviation, people oriented growth policies and human capital ...

  7. Robust methods and asymptotic theory in nonlinear econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Bierens, Herman J

    1981-01-01

    This Lecture Note deals with asymptotic properties, i.e. weak and strong consistency and asymptotic normality, of parameter estimators of nonlinear regression models and nonlinear structural equations under various assumptions on the distribution of the data. The estimation methods involved are nonlinear least squares estimation (NLLSE), nonlinear robust M-estimation (NLRME) and non­ linear weighted robust M-estimation (NLWRME) for the regression case and nonlinear two-stage least squares estimation (NL2SLSE) and a new method called minimum information estimation (MIE) for the case of structural equations. The asymptotic properties of the NLLSE and the two robust M-estimation methods are derived from further elaborations of results of Jennrich. Special attention is payed to the comparison of the asymptotic efficiency of NLLSE and NLRME. It is shown that if the tails of the error distribution are fatter than those of the normal distribution NLRME is more efficient than NLLSE. The NLWRME method is appropriate ...

  8. Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractMarket share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of

  9. An Econometric Approach to Exchange Control Liberalization and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study assesses the impact of exchange control liberalisation on economic growth in Botswana. In literature it has been very unclear of how the liberalisation of exchange controls impacts economic growth as there has been mixed results. Botswana liberalised its exchange controls in 1999 and to date there has been no ...

  10. When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that 'when non-renewable energy will be diminished' is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source

  11. A Comparative Analysis of Value at Risk Measurement on Emerging Stock Markets: Case of Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cerović Julija

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The concept of value at risk gives estimation of the maximum loss of financial position at a given time for a given probability. The motivation for this analysis lies in the desire to devote necessary attention to risks in Montenegro, and to approach to quantifying and managing risk more thoroughly. Objectives: This paper considers adequacy of the most recent approaches for quantifying market risk, especially of methods that are in the basis of extreme value theory, in Montenegrin emerging market before and during the global financial crisis. In particular, the purpose of the paper is to investigate whether extreme value theory outperforms econometric and quantile evaluation of VaR in emerging stock markets such as Montenegrin market. Methods/Approach: Daily return of Montenegrin stock market index MONEX20 is analyzed for the period January, 2004 - February, 2014. Value at Risk results based on GARCH models, quantile estimation and extreme value theory are compared. Results: Results of the empirical analysis show that the assessments of Value at Risk based on extreme value theory outperform econometric and quantile evaluations. Conclusions: It is obvious that econometric evaluations (ARMA(2,0- GARCH(1,1 and RiskMetrics proved to be on the lower bound of possible Value at Risk movements. Risk estimation on emerging markets can be focused on methodology using extreme value theory that is more sophisticated as it has been proven to be the most cautious model when dealing with turbulent times and financial turmoil.

  12. Agriculture and dairy in Eastern Europe after transition focused on Poland and Hungary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tonini, A.

    2007-01-01

    Keywords: CEECs, Hungary, Poland, dairy, micro economic theory, efficiency, productivity, allocative efficiency, stochastic frontier, profit function, Markov chain, and maximum entropy econometrics.This thesis analyzes the transition of an economic sector, from a socialist system to a market

  13. On the behavioural relevance of optional and mandatory impure public goods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Engelmann, Dirk; Munro, A.; Valente, M.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 61, August (2017), s. 134-144 ISSN 0167-4870 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : behavioural economic s * experiment * charity Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 1.275, year: 2016

  14. Asymptotics of diagonal elements of projection matrices under many instruments/regressors

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Anatolyev, Stanislav; Yaskov, P.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 33, č. 3 (2017), s. 717-738 ISSN 0266-4666 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : instrumental variable estimation * inference * models Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 1.011, year: 2016

  15. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unique firstlady

    Oil has remained the engine of growth of the Nigerian ... high just as what happened in the case of Peugeot Automobile ..... S. (1982) Schaum's Outline of Theory And Problems of Statistics and Econometrics. London: Mc Graw-Hill. Books.

  16. Knowledge base combinations and innovation performance in Swedish regions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grillitsch, M.; Martin, R.; Srholec, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 93, č. 5 (2017), s. 458-479 ISSN 0013-0095 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : knowledge base * knowledge combination * region Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 5.344, year: 2016

  17. A Spatial and Temporal analysis of Labour Market Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pośpiech Ewa

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of spatial methods is becoming increasingly common in social and economic research as it emphasizes the relevance of spatiality to the understanding of socio-economic facts. Once embraced, the spatial factor can substantially help explain variations in the properties being examined, thus improving the quality of their description and supporting the development of econometric models. This paper explores some of the characteristics of Poland’s job market, making an inquiry into their spatial dependencies. The study looks at the country’s labour market from a local perspective, examining its properties for spatial autocorrelation (both global and local. Linear econometric models are subsequently built for such variables as the number of persons in employment, the number of women and men in employment. The models are further investigated to assess the applicability of spatial modelling in their development.

  18. Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: A Test Of Turkish Economy By ARDL Bound Testing Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utku ALTUNÖZ

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Balassa-Samuelson effect is a popular theme at last years that introduced by Bèla Balassa (1964 and Paul Samuelson (1964. This concept, suggests that a differentiation at international level between the relative rates of productivity of the tradable and non tradable sectors may cause structural and permanent deviations from the purchasing power parity. In this essay, related variables are tested through Balassa-Samuelson Effect in terms of Turkey-European Economy. The choice of econometric technique used to estimate the model was important because the regressors in the model appeared to be a mixture of I(0 and I(1 processes. Thus ARDL bounds testing approaches to co integration analysis in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates. Given the dataset and econometric techniques used, the results do not support the B-S hypothesis.

  19. Towards data oriented analysis of the art market: survey and outlook

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Filipiak

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to the constantly growing interest in alternati ve investments, the art market has become the subject of numerous studies. By publishing sales data, many services and auction houses provide a foundati on for further research on the latest trends. Determining the definiti on of the arti sti c value or formalisation of appraisal may be considered quite complex. Statistical analysis, econometric methods or data mining techniques could pave the way towards bett er understanding of the mechanisms occurring on the art market. The goal of this paper is to identify, describe and compare solutions (and related challenges that help to analyse, make decisions and defi ne state of the art in the context of the intersecti on of econometrics on art markets and computer science. This work is also a starting point for further research.

  20. Energy input for tomato production what economy says, and what is good for the environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houshyar, Ehsan; Dalgaard, Tommy; Tarazkar, Mohammad Hassan

    2015-01-01

    The central Fars province is the main tomato producer region in Southwest Iran. This study was undertaken to evaluate the energy consumption patterns of tomato production, corresponding GHG emissions, and relationships between inputs and output by a Cobb–Douglass econometric model. The changes...... productivities (MPPs), however, indicated that tomato yield is most sensitive to machinery and chemicals energy inputs in the C1 and C2, respectively, which should be considered first to increase in order to achieve productivity enhancement. The result displayed that higher energy consumption according...... to the econometric models and MPPs may lead to much higher CO2 emissions compared to the current average emissions particularly when MPP is low. Hence, it is suggested that production types with the highest MPPs should be considered if change in energy inputs is desired. In addition, it is recommended that “green...

  1. What Do We Learn From Self-Evaluations of Training?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Nicolai

    of the courses. This finding suggests that either learning has no weight in the employees. subjective evaluations or subjective evaluations cannot be trusted. At this stage, we cannot fully ascertain whether subjective valuations can be used as a substitute for econometric or experimental program evaluations...... analyze how subjective assessments of satisfaction with training compare to objective measures based on differences in test scores before and after training. I find a complete lack of correspondence between the objective measure of learning and 11 subjective measures of satisfaction with aspects......Self-evaluations of program impact, notably subjective evaluations of the e¤ects of training, are wide-spread in both the public and the private sector . probably because self-evaluations o¤er an easy and low-cost alternative to rigorous experimental or econometric evaluations. In this paper, I...

  2. European wood pellet market integration - A study of the residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsson, Olle; Hillring, Bengt; Vinterbaeck, Johan

    2011-01-01

    The integration of European energy markets is a key goal of EU energy policy, and has also been the focal point of many scientific studies in recent years. International markets for coal, oil, natural gas and electricity have previously been investigated in order to determine the extent of the respective markets. This study enhances this field of research to bioenergy markets. Price series data and time series econometrics are used to determine whether residential sector wood pellet markets of Austria, Germany and Sweden are integrated. The results of the econometric tests show that the German and Austrian markets can be considered to be integrated, whereas the Swedish market is separate from the other two countries. Although increased internationalization of wood pellet markets is likely to contribute to European price convergence and market integration, this process is far from completed. (author)

  3. The impact of corruption on the sustainable development of human capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Absalyamova, Svetlana; Absalyamov, Timur; Khusnullova, Asiya; Mukhametgalieva, Chulpan

    2016-08-01

    The article explains the use of the human capital sustainable development index (HCSDI) to assess the quality of the reproduction of human capital. The paper provides the algorithm for calculating HCSDI and its components. Authors estimated cross-country differences of HCSDI and developed econometric model of the impact of corruption on HCSDI. The use of this model has allowed to reveal the mechanism and assess the impact of corruption on HCSDI and its components. The results of econometric analysis revealed a negative multiplier effect: an increase in the corruption of the socio-economic system of the state by 1% caused HCSDI reduce by more than 1%. The results and conclusions may be proxy-assessments of the socio-economic consequences of violations of the stability of reproduction of human capital in the conditions of the growth of corruption in the country

  4. POVERTY, GROWTH AND INEQUALITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guiga Housseima

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to assess the position of some developing countries in relation to different theories about the relationship between poverty, growth and inequality. We conducted an econometric analysis through a study using panel data from 52 developing countries over the period 1990-2005, to determine the main sources of poverty reduction and show the interdependence between poverty, inequality and growth by using a system of simultaneous equations. This method is rarely applied econometric panel data and especially in the case studies on poverty. Our results indicate that the state investment in social sectors such as education and health and improving the living conditions of the rural population can promote economic growth and reducing inequality. Therefore, the Kuznets hypothesis is based on a relationship between economic growths to income inequality is most appropriate.

  5. Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhar, Ramaprasad; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2005-01-01

    This article examines the causal relationship and, in particular, informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten-year period using a recent econometric methodology. The two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, L.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its applications to financial market prices, Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48.] is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables. We find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance. Our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area. However, the result does indicate mild support for noise traders' hypothesis in the crude oil futures market. (Author)

  6. Consequences and detection of invalid exogeneity conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niemczyk, J.

    2009-01-01

    Estimators for econometric relationships require observations on at least as many exogenous variables as the model has unknown coefficients. This thesis examines techniques to classify variables as being either exogenous or endogenous, and investigates the consequences of invalid classifications.

  7. An approximate fractional Gaussian noise model with computational cost

    KAUST Repository

    Sø rbye, Sigrunn H.; Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik; Rue, Haavard

    2017-01-01

    Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary time series model with long memory properties applied in various fields like econometrics, hydrology and climatology. The computational cost in fitting an fGn model of length $n$ using a likelihood

  8. Download this PDF file

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    endogenous variables of a simultaneous equation model popularly known as Keynesian Model of Income ... estimates. Keywords: Bootstrap, endogenous, exogenous, least squares, maximum likelihood. Introduction ..... Kousoyiannis, A (1977): Theory of Econometrics, Second edition,. Macmillan Press. Mooney, C. Z. and ...

  9. UNEMPLOYMENT IN URBAN ETHIOPIA: DETERMINANTS AND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    Data from the 2004 wave of the Ethiopian Urban Socio Economic Survey on four major cities of .... public sector jobs and for those with their fathers are civil servants. Haile (2003), using ... not address rural unemployment. Two econometric ...

  10. The impact of high-stakes school admission exams on study achievements: quasi-experimental evidence from Slovakia

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Federičová, Miroslava; Münich, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 30, č. 4 (2017), s. 1069-1092 ISSN 0933-1433 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : high-stakes exams * students’ motivation * achievement Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 1.136, year: 2016

  11. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  12. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  13. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  14. Heterogeneity in Risky Choice Behaviour in a Broad Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    von Gaudecker, Hans-Martin; van Soest, Arthur; Wengström, Erik Roland

    2009-01-01

    We analyse risk preferences using an experiment with real incentives in a representative sample of 1,422 Dutch respondents. Our econometric model incorporates four structural parameters that vary with observed and unobserved characteristics: Utility curvature, loss aversion, preferences towards...

  15. Alternative approaches to evaluation of cow efficiency

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    anonymous

    2017-01-26

    Jan 26, 2017 ... Indexes that are consistent with the econometric definition of efficiency and seek to ... defined as ratios, such as the biological efficiency metric calf weight/cow weight. Dinkel & Brown ..... Biometrics 15, 469-485. Scholtz, M.M.& ...

  16. Capabilities, economic development, sustainability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fagerberg, J.; Srholec, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 41, č. 3 (2017), s. 905-926 ISSN 0309-166X Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : national innovation systems * growth * technology Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 1.338, year: 2016

  17. Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X Asymptotic distribution of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    in actuarial and econometric contexts (see e.g. Brazauskas et al. 2007, 2009, and ... Journal home page: www.jafristat.net ..... its estimation, and an analysis of incomes in Italy. Journal of ... Robust estimation of the quintile share ratio with bias.

  18. Output responses to infrastructure investment in the Netherlands, 1850-1913

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groote, Peter; Jacobs, Jan; Sturm, Jan-Egbert

    1995-01-01

    This paper combines a new historical data set regarding capital formation in infrastructure in the Netherlands in the nineteenth century with data-oriented econometric techniques aimed at testing the causal relationship between these infrastructural investments and economic growth. The resulting

  19. Do Wage Subsidies Reduce Ordinary Employment?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azhar, Hussain; Rasmussen, Martin

    Applying administrative register data information for Danish firms in 1999, 2000, and 2001, this paper investigate how the employment of wage subsidized labour affects ordinary employment at the firm level. Descriptive statistics as well as econometric estimations are presented. Descriptive...

  20. Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung; Kaminski, Bogumil; Koloch, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal

  1. URBAN FUEL DEMAND IN ETHIOPIA: AN ALMOST-IDEAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Etsub [ ETSUB

    The environmental impact of urban fuel demand in general and the reliance on solid ... The remaining of the paper is organized as follows. In the next ... presents the econometric model and section 5 describes the study area and the data.

  2. Integer-valued time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Akker, R.

    2007-01-01

    This thesis adresses statistical problems in econometrics. The first part contributes statistical methodology for nonnegative integer-valued time series. The second part of this thesis discusses semiparametric estimation in copula models and develops semiparametric lower bounds for a large class of

  3. Impacts of terrain attributes on economics and the environment: Costs of reducing potential nitrogen pollution in wheat production

    Science.gov (United States)

    The economic cost of achieving desired environmental outcomes from uniform and variable rate fertilizer application technologies depends both on market forces and agronomic properties. Using spatial econometric methods, we analyze the impact of nitrogen fertilizer supply by terrain attribute on the...

  4. The elusive effects of workplace diversity on innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ozgen, Ceren; Nijkamp, Peter; Poot, Jacques

    2017-01-01

    We investigate econometrically whether cultural diversity at the workplace boosts innovation. Our longitudinal linked employer-employee data combines two innovation surveys, with Dutch administrative, tax and regional data. We analyse the determinants of a firm's product and process innovations with

  5. Health and Marketing: Essays on Physician and Patient Decision-Making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.M.A. Camacho (Nuno)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractIn this dissertation, I focus on physician and patient behavior. I model patient and physician decisions by integrating robust insights from different behavioral sciences (e.g. economics, psychology and sociology) in econometric models calibrated on individual data. This approach allows

  6. Search Results | Page 4 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Results 31 - 40 of 9175 ... ... MARKET INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH EMPLOYMENT SOUTH AFRICA METHODOLOGY STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. Econometric analysis of labour demand at an industry level in South Africa ... Wage determination and the gender wage gap in Kenya : any evidence of gender discrimination?

  7. Estimated Interest Rate Rules: Do they Determine Determinacy Properties?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    I demonstrate that econometric estimations of nominal interest rate rules may tell little, if anything, about an economy's determinacy properties. In particular, correct inference about the interest-rate response to inflation provides no information about determinacy. Instead, it could reveal...

  8. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    The paper provides a careful, analytical account of Trygve Haavelmo's unsystematic, but important, use of the analogy between controlled experiments common in the natural sciences and econometric techniques. The experimental analogy forms the linchpin of the methodology for passive observation...

  9. Household measures for river flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Juřička, D.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 2 (2017), s. 253-266 ISSN 1753-318X Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : Becva river basin * Czech Republic * flood damage Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 3.121, year: 2016

  10. Understanding Financial Market Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Volatility has been one of the most active and successful areas of research in time series econometrics and economic forecasting in recent decades. Loosely speaking, volatility is defined as the average magnitude of fluctuations observed in some phenomenon over

  11. Journal of Agriculture and Social Research (JASR) - Vol 6, No 1 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Agriculture and Social Research (JASR) - Vol 6, No 1 (2006) ... Econometric analysis of the effect of marketing costs on grain prices in Kaduna State of ... Impact of mass media on adoption of agricultural innovations in Kaduna State, ...

  12. Price elasticity estimation of electricity demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourbonnais, Regis; Keppler, Jan Horst

    2013-10-01

    On request of the French Union of Electricity (UFE), the authors have carried out a series of econometric statistical tests in order to determine the price elasticity of electricity demand in France. The results obtained are all solid and realistic

  13. A note on selection and gender unemployment gaps

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bičáková, Alena

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 4 (2017), s. 428-438 ISSN 0195-3613 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : selection bias * Manski bounds * gender unemployment gap Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 0.545, year: 2016

  14. Understanding tradeoffs in the supplier selection process : The role of flexibility, delivery, and value-added services/support

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rhee, van der B.; Verma, R.; Plaschka, G.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we present, based on econometric choice modeling framework, how manufacturing managers/executives trade-off between cost, delivery, flexibility, and service features in the supplier selection process for commodity raw materials, given acceptable quality. Empirical data for this study

  15. The Long-Run Impact of Foreign Aid in 36 African Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Møller, Niels Framroze; Tarp, Finn

    to a natural economic null hypothesis. Our study identifies three reasons for econometrically unsatisfactory results in the literature: failure to adequately account for unit roots and breaks; imposing seemingly innocuous but invalid data transformations; and imposing aid endogeneity/exogeneity without testing....

  16. Immigration policy index

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vikhrov, Dmytro

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 25, č. 1 (2017), s. 3-46 ISSN 0967-0750 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : immigration policy * visa * differences-in-differences estimation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 0.479, year: 2016

  17. Gender composition of college graduates by field of study and early fertility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bičáková, Alena; Jurajda, Štěpán

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 4 (2017), s. 1323-1343 ISSN 1569-5239 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : field-of-study gender segregation * college graduates * fertility Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 0.972, year: 2016

  18. socio-economic determinants of birth preparedness and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DGS-FUTO

    2018-06-01

    Jun 1, 2018 ... The multivariate logistic model revealed that literacy, marital status ... International Journal of Development and Management Review (INJODEMAR) Vol. 13 No. 1 June ...... Growth,Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management ... Introductory econometrics, a modern approach, fifth approach,.

  19. Essays in applied microeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ciccarelli, Nicola

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three chapters in which static and dynamic panel data (instrumental variables) methods are employed to estimate econometric models in different contexts. Chapter 2 investigates the effects of rising health insurance premiums for employer-provided health insurance on

  20. Innovación y productividad en las firmas irlandesas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crowley, Frank; McCann, Philip

    2015-01-01

    Abstract: This paper uses an endogenous switching technique which allows us to utilize micro-econometric data to construct counterfactual scenarios of the innovation-productivity relationship in Irish firms. A firm's innovation effort, capital intensity, firm size, location and its operating

  1. Gender, Space, and the Location Changes of Jobs and People : A Spatial Simultaneous Equations Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogstra, Gerke J.

    This article summarizes a spatial econometric analysis of local population and employment growth in the Netherlands, with specific reference to impacts of gender and space. The simultaneous equations model used distinguishes between population- and gender-specific employment groups, and includes

  2. The economic impact of east–west migration on the European Union

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kahanec, M.; Pytliková, Mariola

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 44, č. 3 (2017), s. 407-434 ISSN 0340-8744 Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : EU enlargement * free mobility of workers * migration impacts Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 0.658, year: 2016

  3. Download

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    AJRH Managing Editor

    for its low health facility delivery rate as a result .... provider of the primary level of care in the typical three-tier system ... This was perhaps not unexpected in Gokana LGA as only a ..... health outcomes: Cross-country econometrics study.

  4. Valuing structure, model uncertainty and model averaging in vector autoregressive processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractEconomic policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on accurate econometric modeling. However, a decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, while an analyst must also be interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on

  5. Effectiveness of technological options for minimising production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Farmer perceptions of technology effectiveness, to some extent, agreed with econometric evidence from this study. Study results have two implications: firstly, the need to develop and disseminate location specific adaptation technologies to reduce production risks, instead of blanket recommendations of similar adaptation ...

  6. Honduras : tous les projets | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Sujet: TAXATION, CONSUMER DEMAND, Fiscal policy, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, SMOKING, TOBACCO INDUSTRY. Région: North and Central America, South America, Guatemala, Honduras. Programme: Alimentation, environnement et santé. Financement total : CA$ 128,000.00. Prévention de la violence chez les ...

  7. Micro-level Estimation of Optimal Consumption Choice With Intertemporal Nonseparability in Preferences and Measurement Errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gayle, Wayne-Roy; Khorunzhina, Natalia

    2018-01-01

    This article investigates the presence of habit formation in household consumption, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We develop an econometric model of internal habit formation of the multiplicative specification. The restrictions of the model allow for classical measurement er...

  8. When the difference makes a difference – the regional embeddedness of entrepreneurship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breitenecker, Robert J.; Harms, Rainer; Weyh, Antje; Maresch, Daniela; Kraus, Sascha

    2017-01-01

    Regional determinants of new firm formation are of interest to researchers and policymakers. In the analysis of new firm formation, most studies use econometric approaches that mask intra-unit variations, not recognizing counterbalancing and dilution effects as a result. Recent advances in spatial

  9. Eliminating Problems Caused by Multicollinearity: A Warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    1982-01-01

    Explains why an econometric practice introduced by J.C. Soper cannot eliminate the problems caused by multicollinearity. The author suggests that it can be a useful technique in that it forces researchers to pay more attention to the specifications of their models. (AM)

  10. House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Anselin, Luc

    This paper investigates the impact of house price movements on output in a space-time dynamic framework. The transmission of house price fluctuations to the macroeconomy both across space and over time is explicitly considered through spatial econometric modeling techniques. Using 373 metropolita...

  11. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elem...

  12. How Accurate are Government Forecast of Economic Fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractA government’s ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an

  13. Essays on Imperfect Knowledge Economics, Structural Change, and Persistence in the Cointegrated VAR Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabor, Morten Nyboe

    2014-01-01

    conrm the original intuition behind the attempt to combine IKE and the econometric approach based on the cointegrated VAR model, that the parameter-instability of IKE models could potentially be an important source of the persistence found empirically in estimated cointegrated VAR models...

  14. Management Science, Economics and Finance: A Connection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a brief review of the connecting literature in management science, economics and finance, and discusses some research that is related to the three disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent econometric models to estimate the parameters in

  15. ‘Everybody’s Doing It’ : Essays on trust, social norms and integration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smerdon, D.C.

    2017-01-01

    This thesis investigates three topics at the intersection of behavioural and development economics, using a combination of experiments, econometric analysis and mathematical theory. The essays are borne out of topical questions with important policy implications. The first essay seeks to answer why

  16. Marketing's profit impact : Quantifying online and offline funnel progression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiesel, T.; Pauwels, K.; Arts, J.

    2011-01-01

    I nofec, a small- to medium-sized enterprise in the business-to-business sector, desired a more analytic approach to allocate marketing resources across communication activities and channels. We developed a conceptual framework and econometric model to empirically investigate (1) the marketing

  17. Agro 2012 June

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigerian Agriculture (1970 -2009): An Econometric Analysis ... FDAI with untransformed OLS regression model, autocorrelation was detected, hence ..... Cointegration and Unit Root Test: Granger and Newbold (1974), Engle and Granger. (1987) ... When the stochastic process is non-stationary, the use of OLS can produce.

  18. Preferential Trade Arrangements and the Pattern of Production and Trade when Inputs are Differentiated

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. François (Joseph)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis paper is concerned with rules of origin when intermediate goods are differentiated. An analytical model emphasizes trade patterns and the relative importance of trade in intermediates given trade preferences. Econometric evidence based on intra-OECD trade in motor vehicles and motor

  19. Afforestation for the Provision of Multiple Ecosystem Services: A Ukrainian Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijnik, M.; Oskam, A.J.; Nijnik, A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an economic analysis of the planting of trees on marginal lands in Ukraine for timber production, erosion prevention, and climate mitigation. A methodology combining econometric analysis, simulation modelling, and linear programming to analyse the costs and benefits of such

  20. On Robust Information Extraction from High-Dimensional Data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 1 (2014), s. 131-144 ISSN 1452-4864 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA13-01930S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : data mining * high-dimensional data * robust econometrics * outliers * machine learning Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science