Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

Science.gov (United States)

Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

1979-01-01

An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyd, G.; Kokkelenberg, E.; State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY; Ross, M.; Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI

1991-01-01

Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's ''measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this ''engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig

Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow

2014-01-01

: We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

Development of a long term macro econometric model for strategic analysis and cost assessments in nuclear R and D fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mankin, Shuichi; Yamazaki, Shigeki.

1985-11-01

A Long Term Macro Econometric Model (LTMEMO) has been developed for the purpose of generating economic scenarios for strategic analysis and for cost assessments of technologies in the field of nuclear research and development. The program system of the model is composed of such sub-programs as related social and economic statistic data base and its treatment program, identification and estimation programs of various econometric functions, simulation programs for future projections, and a reference econometric model program. The reference econometric model in the program system would be improved and modified easily by using data base and other sub-programs as the purpose of data retrieval, application of economic hypothesis, and scenario generation. The reference model belongs to a category of such standard types as macro-econometric, deterministic, and descriptive one, however, it was deviated based on the combination of Keynesian theories and Neo-classical theories and was modified by system engineering aspects. The model obtained good performances in such various econometric tests as statistical examinations in parameter estimation of each functions and so called partial tests, total tests, and final tests. Macro economic scenarios α and β, long term projections through 2030 of macro economy in our country were evaluated appropriately by this model. This report describes the process in the development of the model from needs of econometric model in nuclear fields to examples of economic scenarios generated by this model. Some consideration are taken into descriptions on the deviation of each functions and on the application of economic theories for practical use of this program system at the time of modification and improvements of the reference model. (author)

Essays on financial econometrics : modeling the term structure of interest rates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwman, Kees Evert

2008-01-01

This dissertation bundles five studies in financial econometrics that are related to the theme of modeling the term structure of interest rates. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new arbitrage-free term structure model that is applied in an empirical analysis of the US term structure.

An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

Science.gov (United States)

Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

1979-01-01

A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

Behavioral Econometrics for Psychologists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

We make the case that psychologists should make wider use of structural econometric methods. These methods involve the development of maximum likelihood estimates of models, where the likelihood function is tailored to the structural model. In recent years these models have been developed...

Applied econometrics with R

CERN Document Server

Kleiber, Christian

2008-01-01

Offers an introduction to the R system for users with a background in economics. This book covers a variety of regression models, regression diagnostics and robustness issues, the nonlinear models of microeconomics, time series and time series econometrics.

Econometric models of power prices. An approach to market monitoring in the Western US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barmack, Matthew; Kahn, Edward; Tierney, Susan; Goldman, Charles

2008-01-01

Given the limitations of data and resources available for market monitoring in electricity markets where regional transmission organizations (RTO) do not exist, we argue that econometric models of power prices could provide a useful screening tool for market monitoring. To explore its feasibility, we developed several econometric models of power prices at two major trading hubs in the West: Palo Verde and Mid-Columbia. We show that our models explain a large portion of the variation in power prices in Palo Verde and can establish a benchmark that can be used to identify outlier prices that are potentially the result of anti-competitive behavior. (author)

Econometric Model – A Tool in Financial Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riana Iren RADU

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The economic situation in Romania requires from the trader a rigorous analysis of vulnerabilities and opportunities offered by the external environment and a careful analysis of internal environmental conditions in which the entity operates. In this context particular attention is paid to indicators presented in the financial statements. Many times they are a model for economic forecasts, future plans, basic business and businesses that use them with a good forecasting activity. In this paper we propose to analyze the comparative evolution of the main financial indicators highlighted in financial statements (profit and loss through a multi-equation econometric model, namely dynamic Keynesian model.

An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

Science.gov (United States)

Taff, L. G.

2010-02-01

The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

Econometric modeling of health care costs and expenditures: a survey of analytical issues and related policy considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullahy, John

2009-07-01

Econometric modeling of healthcare costs and expenditures has become an important component of decision-making across a wide array of real-world settings. The objective of this article is to provide a brief summary of important conceptual and analytical issues involved in econometric healthcare cost modeling. To this end, the article explores: outcome measures typically analyzed in such work; the decision maker's perspective in econometric cost modeling exercises; specific analytical issues in econometric model specification; statistical goodness-of-fit testing; empirical implications of "upper tail" (or "high cost") phenomena; and issues relating to the reporting of findings. Some of the concepts explored here are illustrated in light of samples drawn from the 2005 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Analysts of healthcare cost data have at their disposal an increasingly sophisticated tool kit for analyzing such data that can in principle and in fact yield increasingly interesting insights into data structures. Yet for such analyses to usefully inform policy decisions, the manner in which such studies are designed, undertaken, and reported must accommodate considerations relevant to the decision-making community. The article concludes with some preliminary thoughts on how such bridges might be constructed.

Econometric Methodology of Monopolization Process Evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dmitrijs Skoruks

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The research “Econometric Methodology of Monopolization Process Evaluation” gives a perspective description of monopolization process’ nature, occurrence source, development procedure and internal conjuncture specifics, as well as providing an example of modern econometrical method application within a unified framework of market competition analysis for the purpose of conducting a quantitative competition evaluation on an industry level for practical use in both private and public sectors. The main question of the aforementioned research is the definition and quantitative analysis of monopolization effects in modern day globalized markets, while con- structing an empirical model of the econometric analysis, based on the use of in- ternational historical experience of monopoly formations standings, with the goal of introducing a further development scheme for the use of both econometrical and statistical instruments in line with the forecasting and business research need of enterprises and regulatory functions of the public sector. The current research uses a vast variety of monopolization evaluation ratios and their econometrical updates on companies that are involved in the study procedure in order to detect and scallar measure their market monopolizing potential, based on the implemented acquired market positions, turnover shares and competition policies.

Integer-valued Lévy processes and low latency financial econometrics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Pollard, David G.; Shephard, Neil

Motivated by features of low latency data in financial econometrics we study in detail integervalued Lévy processes as the basis of price processes for high frequency econometrics. We propose using models built out of the difference of two subordinators. We apply these models in practice to low...... latency data for a variety of different types of futures contracts.futures markets, high frequency econometrics, low latency data, negative binomial, Skellam, tempered stable...

Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

2016-05-01

The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

Convolution copula econometrics

CERN Document Server

Cherubini, Umberto; Mulinacci, Sabrina

2016-01-01

This book presents a novel approach to time series econometrics, which studies the behavior of nonlinear stochastic processes. This approach allows for an arbitrary dependence structure in the increments and provides a generalization with respect to the standard linear independent increments assumption of classical time series models. The book offers a solution to the problem of a general semiparametric approach, which is given by a concept called C-convolution (convolution of dependent variables), and the corresponding theory of convolution-based copulas. Intended for econometrics and statistics scholars with a special interest in time series analysis and copula functions (or other nonparametric approaches), the book is also useful for doctoral students with a basic knowledge of copula functions wanting to learn about the latest research developments in the field.

Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

Science.gov (United States)

Gerkman, Linda

2012-07-01

The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

1991-01-01

The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

Micro Econometric Modelling of Household Energy Use

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leth-Petersen, Søren

2002-01-01

Presents a micro econometric analysis of household electricity and natural gas demand for Danish households observed in 1996. Dependence between demand for gas and demand for electricity; Separability of demand for gas from demand for electricity; Relation between energy consumption and the age...

An econometric model on bilateral trade in education using an augmented gravity model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christina Tay

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Trade in education has become one of the most important trades for many economies. Yet, studies of education as a trade are scant owing to the conventional view of it being non-tradable. The purpose of this paper is to econometrically investigate trade in education using a nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model, one of the most widely used models in international trade in goods that has been scantly investigated on in studies on trade in education.Design/methodology/approach: A panel data analysis is broken down for 21 exporting countries and 50 importing countries, covering 1050 observations using new UNESCO database. A number of determinants of international trade including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer are empirically tested on bilateral trade flows in education. An econometric model is formulated to test determinants of trade in education using an augmented gravity model.Findings: The augmented gravity model used in this study explains with high significance the determinants of trade in education including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer.Research limitations/implications: Taking a macroscopic view of education as a trade may give us a myopic view of the elements important to determine what students or parents of students as well as institutions are concerned with. Nevertheless, the nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model used in this study that are largely and traditionally used on trade in goods and services, but scantly used in trade in education have been found to be highly significant and relevant in trade in education. Future studies on macro-level of analysis involving trade in education could include other determinants of

An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Panduro, Toke Emil

2015-01-01

Omitted, misspecified, or mismeasured spatially varying characteristics are a cause for concern in hedonic house price models. Spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects have become popular ways of addressing these concerns. We discuss the limitations of standard spatial approaches to hedonic...

Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bramati, Maria Caterina

2016-01-01

Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. - Highlights: • We use an econometric model as a tool for assessing the effects of regional policies on the development of economic activities related to the use of the sea and on the impact on the marine environment. • Through scenario simulation we provide strategic guidelines for policy makers and economic planners • The model features feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas.

Robustness in econometrics

CERN Document Server

Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Huynh, Van-Nam

2017-01-01

This book presents recent research on robustness in econometrics. Robust data processing techniques – i.e., techniques that yield results minimally affected by outliers – and their applications to real-life economic and financial situations are the main focus of this book. The book also discusses applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. In day-by-day data, we often encounter outliers that do not reflect the long-term economic trends, e.g., unexpected and abrupt fluctuations. As such, it is important to develop robust data processing techniques that can accommodate these fluctuations.

Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

2007-01-01

This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

Econometrics in R: Past, Present, and Future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achim Zeileis

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Recently, computational methods and software have been receiving more attention in the econometrics literature, emphasizing that they are integral components of modern econometric research. This has also promoted the development of many new econometrics software packages written in R and made available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network. This special volume on "Econometrics in R" features a selection of these recent activities that includes packages for econometric analysis of cross-section, time series and panel data. This introduction to the special volume highlights the contents of the contributions and embeds them into a brief overview of other past, present, and future projects for econometrics in R.

Modelling internal migration in Kenya: an econometric analysis with limited data.

Science.gov (United States)

Barber, G M; Milne, W J

1988-09-01

"In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model." excerpt

ECONOMETRIC METHODS AND MODELS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin ANGHELACHE

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Gross Domestic Product is the most representative synthetic indicator that expresses the evolution of the national economy. This macroeconomic indicator is used in the analysis of the level of the national economy, as well as the dynamic evolution of the national economy. In the forecast studies we rely on GDP evolution. In these situations, we might identify the factors of economic growth, and their influence. On the evolution of GDP have influence some factors: employees, labour productivity, the level of technology, investments and foreign direct investment, imports, exports or net exports, total consumption, and so on. We can analyze the data series and graphical representation. Detailed analysis is performed using econometric methods, parameters which express interdependence, meaning and intensity of correlation. Thus, we estimate the economic developments. The authors studied and proposed some econometric models for the analysis of economic growth/forecast. The novelty is that we adapt some econometric models to macroeconomic analysis.

Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

Science.gov (United States)

Schu, Kathryn L.

Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.

Science.gov (United States)

Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

1980-01-01

The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

Essays on nonparametric econometrics of stochastic volatility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zu, Y.

2012-01-01

Volatility is a concept that describes the variation of financial returns. Measuring and modelling volatility dynamics is an important aspect of financial econometrics. This thesis is concerned with nonparametric approaches to volatility measurement and volatility model validation.

Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics

OpenAIRE

Ling, S.; McAleer, M.J.; Tong, H.

2015-01-01

__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time series analysis. The purpose of this special issue of the journal on “Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics” is to highlight several areas of research by leading academics in which novel methods have contrib...

Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

N. Kunitomo (Naoto); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y. Nishiyama (Yoshihiko)

2010-01-01

textabstractMoment restriction-based econometric modelling is a broad class which includes the parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric approaches. Moments and conditional moments themselves are nonparametric quantities. If a model is specified in part up to some finite dimensional parameters,

Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics : An overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Ling (Shiqing); M.J. McAleer (Michael); H. Tong (Howell)

2015-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time

Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics: An Overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Ling (Shiqing); M.J. McAleer (Michael); H. Tong (Howell)

2015-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time

Forecasting the EMU inflation rate: Linear econometric vs. non-linear computational models using genetic neural fuzzy systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kooths, Stefan; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Ringhut, Eric

2004-01-01

This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according...

Econometric methods for energy planning and policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhatia, R.

1989-01-01

The paper reports on the following: econometric models are often used in energy planning and policy for energy demand analysis at the macro and sectorial levels; estimating income and price elasticities of demand which can be used to analyze effects of growth and price changes; assessing interfuel and interfactor substitutions; forecasting energy demand; and estimating cost functions and forecasting supply. The illustrations in the paper are confined to single equation systems estimated by least squares method as used in analyzing changes in aggregate energy demand and sectorial energy demand. The use of econometric methods is illustrated with the help of empirical studies from a few countries (notably India). 2 tabs

Petroleum products price interactions on the world markets: an econometric analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maack, Laetitia de; Lantz, Frederic

2012-09-01

This study examines the relationship between crude oil and petroleum products prices in the European, Asian and North American markets. We develop an econometric model, based on the long term equilibrium between the prices, which takes into account the changes in the oil product demand trends. We explain price behaviors by the impact of the demand trends. Because the refining industry which transforms crude into petroleum products is a joint product industry, petroleum product pricing is affected by demand trends both in terms of quality and quantity. Consequently, the long term equilibrium between prices, estimated through a co-integration approach, are affected by several structural breaks. We also develop a panel econometric model which simultaneously takes into account the relative prices of ail world products towards one crude. Finally, the different results are compared to the marginal costs derived from an oil refining optimization model. This econometric modeling approach enables a better understanding of the long term equilibrium between prices of petroleum products and crude. (authors)

An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veie, Kathrine Lausted; Panduro, Toke Emil

Hedonic models are subject to spatially correlated errors which are a symptom of omitted spatial variables, mis-specification or mismeasurement. Methods have been developed to address this problem through the use of spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects. However, often spatial correlation is...... varying characteristics markedly. This suggests that omitted variable bias may remain an important problem. We advocate for an increased use of sensitivity analysis to determine robustness of estimates to different models of the (omitted) spatial processes....

Econometric analysis and energy substitution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phillips, G.J.

1981-09-01

As part of its long-term assessment of new applications for nuclear energy, AECL is becoming acquainted with the techniques of mathematical modelling as used in the areas of energy and economics. Early in 1980, a contract was arranged with DataMetrics Limited of Calgary to prepare an econometric model of the manufacturing sector for Ontario, and to provide AECL with all the information necessary to understand the theory, derivation, and use of the model. This report summarizes the results of this exercise

Parameterized examination in econometrics

Science.gov (United States)

Malinova, Anna; Kyurkchiev, Vesselin; Spasov, Georgi

2018-01-01

The paper presents a parameterization of basic types of exam questions in Econometrics. This algorithm is used to automate and facilitate the process of examination, assessment and self-preparation of a large number of students. The proposed parameterization of testing questions reduces the time required to author tests and course assignments. It enables tutors to generate a large number of different but equivalent dynamic questions (with dynamic answers) on a certain topic, which are automatically assessed. The presented methods are implemented in DisPeL (Distributed Platform for e-Learning) and provide questions in the areas of filtering and smoothing of time-series data, forecasting, building and analysis of single-equation econometric models. Questions also cover elasticity, average and marginal characteristics, product and cost functions, measurement of monopoly power, supply, demand and equilibrium price, consumer and product surplus, etc. Several approaches are used to enable the required numerical computations in DisPeL - integration of third-party mathematical libraries, developing our own procedures from scratch, and wrapping our legacy math codes in order to modernize and reuse them.

Econometric modelling of certain nuclear power systems based on thermal and fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pavelescu, M.; Pioaru, C.; Ursu, I.

1988-01-01

Certain known economic analysis models for a LMFBR fast breeder and CANDU thermal solitary reactors are presented, based on the concepts of discounting and levelization. These models are subsequently utilized as a basis for establishing an original model for the econometric analysis of certain thermal reactor systems or/and fast breeder reactors. Case studies are subsequently conducted with the systems: 1-CANDU, 2-LMFBR, 3-CANDU + LMFBR which enables us to draw certain interesting conclusions for a long range nuclear power policy. (author)

ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josip Arnerić

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

Econometric Forecasting Models for Air Traffic Passenger of Indonesia

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Viktor Suryan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation. With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.

The Econometric Procedures of Specific Transaction Identification

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Doszyń Mariusz

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the econometric procedures of identifying specific transactions, in which atypical conditions or attributes may occur. These procedures are based on studentized and predictive residuals of the accordingly specified econometric models. The dependent variable is a unit transactional price, and explanatory variables are both the real properties’ attributes and accordingly defined artificial binary variables. The utility of the proposed method has been verified by means of a real market data base. The proposed procedures can be helpful during the property valuation process, making it possible to reject real properties that are specific (both from the point of view of the transaction conditions and the properties’ attributes and, consequently, to select an appropriate set of similar attributes that are essential for the valuation process.

Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives : An overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2014-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze.

Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives: An Overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2014-01-01

markdownabstract__Abstract__ One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze.

ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF FIRM’S VALUE IN LIQUID MARKET: CASE OF INDONESIA

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Putu Agus Ardiana

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The research aims to investigate variables affecting Tobin’s Q which represents the value of public  companies listed on LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange by developing a  BLUE(Best Linear UnbiasedEstimators econometric model for cross-sectional data of 2007, 2008, and 2009 as well as panel data. The models vary across different data but there are important findings to note. Public companies listed  on LQ45 Index have experienced overliquidity problem during the period of observation leading to a decline in firm’s value. In addition, those public companies have low financial risk so they have chance to  increase their debts especially long-term debts.

Survey on econometric analysis of oil substitute energy; Sekiyu daitai energy keiryo bunseki chosa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-03-01

For the econometric analysis of petroleum substitution energy, a domestic econometric model was developed which can concretely and econometrically grasp and analyze effects of measures taken for environmental policies, energy conservation, promotion of new energy, etc. The model was made so synthetic as to catch a relationship between energy supply/demand and changes of econosocial structures in economic growth, industrial structure, life style, etc. which are extremely important elements for catching future energy demand. The model is composed of a secondary energy price model, a new energy introduction model, and an energy supply/demand model. As case parameters, selected were the price of crude oil, introduction of new energy, GDP and energy conservation, and the following cases were assumed: standard case, high price energy case, new energy introduction promotion case, low economic growth case, energy conservation case, and low energy demand case. The results of simulating each of these cases were indicated. 91 figs., 110 tabs.

Causal inference in econometrics

CERN Document Server

Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2016-01-01

This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

Multi-criteria and econometric evaluation of dairy products

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Karmen Pažek

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This study examined the multi-criteria assessment of four dairy products: “Pomursko mlejko” (Pomurje milk, “Lejko mleko” (light milk, “Fyto mleko” (Fyto milk and “Posneto mleko v prahu” (dried milk. The research was executed by using a multi-criteria methodology, DEX, which was complemented by an econometric analysis for light milk to estimate the trends in production and consumption before analyzed dairy products were implemented on the market. DEXi computer program results indicated that all analyzed milk products were ‘above average’. The econometric model was applied to examine changes in the demand for low-fat milk (light milk. Empirical results showed significant consumer re¬sponse to the increase in the prices of low-fat milk demonstrating income elasticity (1,15 unit.

Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nasr, G.E.; Badr, E.A.; Dibeh, G.

2000-01-01

This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports (TI), and degree days (DD) on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply. For the 1993-1994 time span, TI is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a negative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995-1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance level. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996-1997 time span also show the significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration analysis for the 1995-1997 and 1996-1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between all variables. In addition, error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally, statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models

Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

Science.gov (United States)

Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

2018-01-01

The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

2000-01-01

Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

Econometrics Models for Copper Recovery: A Case Study of North Waziristan-Copper Deposits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, S.; Khan, M.M.

2010-01-01

Fourteen econometrics models have been developed to evaluate the effects of various flotation process variables like, Propyl xanthate (X/sub 1/g/tonne), pH (X/sub 2/,) Sodium Cyanide (X/sub 3/ g/tonne), Sodium sulphide (X/sub 4/ g/tonne), Frother (X/sub 5/ g/tonne), Pulp density (X/sub 6/ w/vol), and Conditioning time (X/sub 7/ minute) on the copper recovery YR North Waziristan-NWFP Pakistan. Ordinary Least Square OLS method has been applied as an analytical technique for regression analysis. It has been concluded in this study that model given in equation 7 is best model among all. This equation shows that with the increase of one unit of X/sub 1/, Y/sub R/ will increase 0.05 units keeping all other variables constant. (author)

THE SIMON KUZNETS'S INFLUENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMETRICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS

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O. Chernyak

2014-06-01

Full Text Available S. Kuznets's empirical and theoretical researches of the economical growth and economical development, made in 1940 – 1960th, became a main source for upgrading the econometrical models of those processes. The ideas of S. Kuznets gave a beginning for two outstanding directions of the applied literature. The first one deals with the Kuznets's cycles, that have approximately 20 years length period. The second direction appeared after the Kuznets's hypothesis about the unequal allocation of income in a process of economical growth. Kuznets made an assumption, that this inequality growth first and then rolls off. This dependence was named "Kuznets curve". An appearance of new works is caused by creation of new econometrical methods and models (panel data, nonstationarity and by putting forward new theoretical explanations of the phenomenon. Similarly to the original Kuznets curve in the early 1990th "Environmental Kuznets curve" was suggested. After appearance of that concept plenty of econometrical researches were done. On our opinion, the Kuznets's scientific heritage includes great unsolved potential. The usage of this potential will promote a further progress of economical theory.

Epistemological shell of the econometric findings

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Madžar Ljubomir

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is a continuation of the dialogue relating to the study cited as the first item in the reference list to this article. It contains further comments on that study as well as responses to the authors’ reply to the previously given comments, published in a special issue of the Ekonomski anali cited as the second item of the reference list. The principal issue of this exchange is the treatment of previous non-econometric work in the field of macroeconomic interrelationships and of the corresponding changes in the economy of Serbia. The postulate advanced in this text is the same as the one in the previous critical review of the study by Arsić et al. (2005a and consists in the statement that econometric analysis of empirical characteristics of the Serbian economy should respect and incorporate knowledge accumulated through the use of non-econometric techniques before the study was produced. Econometricians should do that by framing appropriately their maintained hypotheses, by selecting structural specification of the various relations in the model and through interpreting the results obtained in the form of econometric estimates. A number of critical observations are reiterated regarding the way some relations are structurally specified. Among such criticized relations are the model’s production function having imports as the only argument and the import function. Imports are judged as inappropriate in the role of the argument in the production function because they not only contribute to production through technological complementarities but also reduce it through the demand segment of the system, by capturing a good deal of domestic demand and stifling a number of sectors of domestic economy. Imports are financed, among other, by several ephemeral, short-lived sources such as donations, foreign indebtedness and privatization receipts. Imports are therefore not sustainable and their enormous increase within a limited time interval

Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bramati, Maria Caterina

2016-11-15

Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parallelization Experience with Four Canonical Econometric Models Using ParMitISEM

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Nalan Baştürk

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the parallel computing implementation of the MitISEM algorithm, labeled Parallel MitISEM. The basic MitISEM algorithm provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density using adaptive mixtures of Student-t densities, where only a kernel of the target density is required. The approximation can be used as a candidate density in Importance Sampling or Metropolis Hastings methods for Bayesian inference on model parameters and probabilities. We present and discuss four canonical econometric models using a Graphics Processing Unit and a multi-core Central Processing Unit version of the MitISEM algorithm. The results show that the parallelization of the MitISEM algorithm on Graphics Processing Units and multi-core Central Processing Units is straightforward and fast to program using MATLAB. Moreover the speed performance of the Graphics Processing Unit version is much higher than the Central Processing Unit one.

Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

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Nikita V. Artamonov

2014-01-01

Full Text Available One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate, total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates. The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research

Short-memory linear processes and econometric applications

CERN Document Server

Mynbaev, Kairat T

2011-01-01

This book serves as a comprehensive source of asymptotic results for econometric models with deterministic exogenous regressors. Such regressors include linear (more generally, piece-wise polynomial) trends, seasonally oscillating functions, and slowly varying functions including logarithmic trends, as well as some specifications of spatial matrices in the theory of spatial models. The book begins with central limit theorems (CLTs) for weighted sums of short memory linear processes. This part contains the analysis of certain operators in Lp spaces and their employment in the derivation of CLTs

The impact of remittances on economic growth: An econometric model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dietmar Meyer

2017-05-01

In other words, the econometric analysis will be based on those six remittance receiving countries. The paper is then to review the empirical literature devoted to the impact of remittances on economic growth, in order, to identify empirically if there are significant relationships between remittances and growth in these countries. The results suggest that remittances have a positive impact on growth and that this impact increases at higher levels of remittances relative to GDP.

Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis

OpenAIRE

Benedictow, Andreas; Fjærtoft, Daniel; Løfsnæs, Ole

2010-01-01

Abstract: A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations – covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price and economic policy variables. The model has good statistical properties and tracks history well over the estimation period, which runs from 1995Q1 to 2008Q1. Model simulations indicate tha...

Informatics, Data Mining, Econometrics and Financial Economics: A Connection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

2015-01-01

textabstractThis short communication reviews some of the literature in econometrics and financial economics that is related to informatics and data mining. We then discuss some of the research on econometrics and financial economics that could be extended to informatics and data mining beyond the

Transportation and socioeconomic impacts of bypasses on communities : an integrated synthesis of panel data, multilevel, and spatial econometric models with case studies.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-21

Title: Transportation and Socioeconomic Impacts of Bypasses on Communities: An Integrated Synthesis of Panel Data, Multilevel, and Spatial Econometric Models with Case Studies. The title used at the start of this project was Transportation and Soc...

Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullahy, J

1998-06-01

In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol.

Science.gov (United States)

Katikireddi, Srinivasa V; Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

2014-06-01

Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the 'Sheffield model'). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders' views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the 'real life' world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

Econometric model of intraurban location of emitters and receptors of industrial air pollution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santini, D. J.; Braid, R.

1977-02-01

An econometric model of air pollution for an intraurban location (the Chicago area) is constructed and estimated. The model treats employment and population as simultaneously determined. Exogenous variables are selected to represent transportation infrastructure investments resulting primarily from federal and state decisions. The exogenous variables account for the relative services provided by highways, commuter railroads, rail rapid transit, waterways, and airports. The employment location equations appear to be considerably more successful than those in previous studies. These equations indicate that waterway availability constrains the locational options of most major industrial air polluters; that highway accessibility is a more influential factor in industrial than services location choices; that rail rapid transit accessibility is more important to services than industrial locations; and that major airports attract light industrial development. The success of the employment location equations reflects the importance of disaggregating intraurban modes of transport and of adding to urban location models the local effects of interurban modes of transport such as water and air.

Econometrics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henry, C.

1988-01-01

The 1988 progress report of the Econometrics laboratory (Polytechnic School, France), is presented. Microeconomy is the main research field of the Center. The applications involve the market organization, the national development, the natural resources and the education. One of the research topics is the development of theorems which allow a relationship between economic equilibrium and optimization, for the increasing efficiency economies. Concerning industrial economy, the investigations are also based on the in situ studies and on the socio-economic factors. The research projects include land selling transactions and public regulation activities, the environment management and the obtention of educational means. The published papers, the congress communications and the thesis, are listed [fr

Econometric Methods within Romanian Quarterly National Accounts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Livia Marineta Drăguşin

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to synthesise the main econometric methods (including the mathematical and statistical ones used in the Romanian Quarterly National Accounts compilation, irrespectively of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP. These methods are adapted for a fast manner to operatively provide information about the country macroeconomic evolution to interested users. In this context, the mathematical and econometric methods play an important role in obtaining quarterly accounts valued in current prices and in constant prices, in seasonal adjustments and flash estimates of QGDP.

The Use of Nonparametric Kernel Regression Methods in Econometric Production Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard

and nonparametric estimations of production functions in order to evaluate the optimal firm size. The second paper discusses the use of parametric and nonparametric regression methods to estimate panel data regression models. The third paper analyses production risk, price uncertainty, and farmers' risk preferences...... within a nonparametric panel data regression framework. The fourth paper analyses the technical efficiency of dairy farms with environmental output using nonparametric kernel regression in a semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis. The results provided in this PhD thesis show that nonparametric......This PhD thesis addresses one of the fundamental problems in applied econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation of regression functions. The conventional approach to regression analysis is the parametric approach, which requires the researcher to specify the form of the regression...

Housing Price Volatility and Econometrics

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sunega, Petr; Lux, Martin; Zemčík, Petr

2014-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 2 (2014), s. 70-78 ISSN 2336-2839 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP404/12/1446 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 ; RVO:67985998 Keywords : econometrics * housing prices * price bubbles Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

Object-Oriented Econometrics with Ox

OpenAIRE

Kulaksizoglu, Tamer

2015-01-01

This article reviews the object-oriented features of the Ox matrix programming language. We discuss object-oriented programming in general and give econometric examples coded in Ox. We also discuss some useful built-in classes that come with the Ox distribution.

Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

2009-12-01

This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

Econometrics of financial high-frequency data

CERN Document Server

Hautsch, Nikolaus

2011-01-01

This book covers major approaches in high-frequency econometrics. It discusses implementation details, provides insights into properties of high-frequency data as well as institutional settings and presents applications.

The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

2015-06-01

The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

Using non-parametric methods in econometric production analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

Econometric estimation of production functions is one of the most common methods in applied economic production analysis. These studies usually apply parametric estimation techniques, which obligate the researcher to specify the functional form of the production function. Most often, the Cobb...... results—including measures that are of interest of applied economists, such as elasticities. Therefore, we propose to use nonparametric econometric methods. First, they can be applied to verify the functional form used in parametric estimations of production functions. Second, they can be directly used...

The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

2014-01-01

In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

Econometric Analysis of 2003 Data on the Post-Service Earnings of Military Retirees: Methodology Report

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Mackin, Patrick C; Darling, Kimberly L

2004-01-01

...). This report details how the estimation datasets were constructed from these two data sources and describes the econometric methodology in detail, including the definition of alternative models...

Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

2008-10-01

Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

Science.gov (United States)

Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

2010-01-01

This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

Demand for natural gas: residential and commercial markets in Ontario and British Columbia. [Econometric-model analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berndt, E R [Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver; Watkins, G C

1977-02-01

An econometric model is used to project natural gas demand in the residential and commercial market sectors. The model specification is a generalization of one developed by Balestra and Nerlove (Econometrica, 34: 585-612(1966)). Demand that is potentially variable because it is not committed to past investments (flexibe demand) is distinguished from demand that is inflexible because it is tied to existing equipment stocks (captive demand). Attention is focused on the effect of temperature variations on gas demand. The nonlinear equation system is estimated by a maximum-likelihood method, using annual data for British Columbia and Ontario during the period of 1959 to 1974. Results show that only in the long run does price have a significant impact on demand. The model is applicable for medium-term policy simulation, but is limited to natural gas fuel. 15 references.

Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments

OpenAIRE

Firgo, Matthias; Fritz, Oliver

2016-01-01

This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share approach. Our application to regional tourism in Austria reveals important results: First, differences in long-run performance between regions are mostly related to idiosyncratic changes in the touris...

Impacts of a carbon Tax on the emissions of car transport in Switzerland: an assessment using an engineering-econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlevaro, F.; Bertholet, J.L.; Chaze, J.P.; Taffe, P.

1992-01-01

It is well-known that road transport is the economic sector most responsible for the growing consumption of fossil fuels in developed countries and, as a consequence, of carbon dioxide emissions largely accountable of the greenhouse effect. Recently, the Swiss Federal Council, as many other European governments, has undertaken to set up an energy policy aiming at reducing CO 2 emissions according to the so-called Toronto targets. Among the different measures that can be used to achieve this objective, special attention has been devoted to the carbon tax as an economic incentive to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Considering motor fuels, such a taxation can lead to a decrease in fuel demand through many mechanisms. Conventional econometric models of energy demand, even when they allow to distinguish short-run from long-run responses of consumption to changing economic conditions, do not consider this engineering description of energy demand. Therefore, they fail to capture the important distinction between demand and supply reaction of energy consumption to energy taxation. The authors present an econometric model built according to an engineering logic which takes into account three possible impacts of a motor fuel tax: on the stock of cars, on their average specific consumption and on their average intensity of use. 5 refs., 2 figs

GENERATION AND COST OF THE MEGAWATTS USING ECONOMETRICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raimundo Juan Lora-Freyre

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This work was conducted at the Energy Plant "Antonio Maceo" (Renté, in the province of Santiago de Cuba, under the Ministry of Energy and Mining. Aims to study the improvement of the planning process and as field of action the econometric modeling applied to the production of electricity. The overall objective of this research is to develop estimates of electricity generation and its total costs, and the analysis of the influence of production factors, using econometric techniques. In order to fulfill the above objective was used and perfected the "Information System for the Calculation of Production Estimates" (SICEP, which determines the response functions, considering the main factors influencing the electricity generation and its total costs. The results allow to show that the most influential factor in the generation of electricity is the fuel, it appreciated by analyzing the standardized b coefficient that reflects the highest value (0,39. Furthermore, the most influential factor in the total cost of generation is the additive, which shows a coefficient b standardized 0,51. The estimates given show the standard error values almost coincide with the standard deviation obtained in the reporting of error normality. The results will be useful to the process of production planning and securing materials from it. 

Econometric Estimates of Army Retention: Zones A, B, C, D and Retirement-Eligible, 1990-2004

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Moore, Carole; Hogan, Paul; Kirchner, Christian; Macklin, Patrick C; Greenston, Peter M

2007-01-01

.... To improve fit, we generated new econometric estimates by MOS, CMF and Zone using the more recent years of data, and conducted out-of-sample prediction testing to confirm the validity of the updated model.

Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

2016-10-01

One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

Applying the Dufournaud econometric model to the determination of the prices dynamics impact over the national economy and over its main vulnerable sectors in connection with the Romanian national economy specificity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Claudia Serban

2008-09-01

Full Text Available In economics, a model represents an abstract, formal image of a phenomenon, process or economic system. It is built by symbolically reproducing the economic theory and by getting new information regarding the behavior of the objective being investigated. In economic theory there are several integrated econometric models meant to underline the interdependency between the branches of a national economy by the public utilities services, especially those connected to energy. The present article presents the first results of our efforts of building an econometric model adapted to the specificity of the Romanian economy, that would underline the impact of the prices modification for public utilities on the Romanian economy as a hole, on the competitiveness of Romanian companies and on the inflation.

Econometric analysis of the factors influencing forest acreage trends in the southeast.

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph J. Alig

1986-01-01

Econometric models of changes in land use acreages in the Southeast by physiographic region have been developed by pooling cross-section and time series data. Separate acreage equations have been estimated for the three major private forestland owner classes and the three major classes of nonforest land use. Observations were drawn at three or four different points in...

Non-standard spatial statistics and spatial econometrics

CERN Document Server

Griffith, Daniel A

2011-01-01

Spatial statistics and spatial econometrics are recent sprouts of the tree "spatial analysis with measurement". Still, several general themes have emerged. Exploring selected fields of possible interest is tantalizing, and this is what the authors aim here.

Econometric analyses of microfinance credit group formation, contractual risks and welfare impacts in Northern Ethiopia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berhane Tesfay, G.

2009-01-01

Key words
Microfinance, joint liability, contractual risk, group formation, risk-matching, impact evaluation, Panel data econometrics, dynamic panel probit, trend models, fixed-effects, composite counterfactuals, propensity score matching, farm households, Ethiopia.

Lack of

Econometric models for distinguishing between market-driven and publicly-funded energy efficiency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horowitz, Marvin J.

2005-01-01

Central to the problem of estimating energy program benefits is the necessity to differentiate between changes in energy use that would have occurred in the absence of public programs versus declines in energy use that would not have occurred but for public programs. The former changes are often referred to as naturally-occurring or market-driven effects. They occur due to a combination of one or more independent variables, such as changes in prices, incomes, weather, and technology. For a rigorous, scientifically-valid program evaluation, it is essential to first control for these variables before making statistical inferences related to public program effects. This paper describes the economic and statistical issues surrounding quantitative studies of energy use, energy efficiency, and public programs. To illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of different impact evaluation approaches, this paper describes three new studies related to electricity use in the U. S. commercial buildings sector. Specification and estimation of time series and cross section econometric models are discussed, as are their capabilities for obtaining long-run estimates of the net impacts of energy efficiency programs

An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

The Evaluation of Efficiency of Production Management at Forestry Enterprise: Experience with Discriminantal and Applied Econometric Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pilko Andriy D.

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The publication is aimed at coverage of the results of a study on existing approaches to the setting and solving the task of evaluation and analysis of efficiency of management of production processes at forestry enterprises, as well as implementation and development (in line with the industry specificity of the previously proposed approach to evaluating, analyzing and forecasting the efficiency of management of the production process by means of development and application of the economic-mathematical modeling capabilities. A study on the efficiency of the production process management and the usage of enterprise’s basic production assets has been conducted with application of discriminantal and simultative econometric models. Further development of the proposed approach could provide an additional methodical basis for planning activities to improve the management of production at forestry enterprises.

A Micro-Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Unsustainable Consumption in The Netherlands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

2004-01-01

Recently, much attention has been given to the notion of 'sustainable consumption'. Whereas environmental economics traditionally has focused environmental policy analysis on producers, this new notion broadens the perspective to include environmental policies aimed at directly influencing consumer decisions regarding buying, using, and recycling products. This could suggest policies that link not only to price incentives, but also and especially to persuasive instruments, such as education and information provision. These policies might take into account certain characteristics of households, such as lifestyle and family size. This article presents a first econometric analysis of consumption in the context of environmental sustainability. Relationships between different types of household expenditures and a range of household characteristics are assessed, based on a large micro data set of households for the Netherlands. Use is made of various demand models and econometric techniques to adequately address theoretical and technical issues involved. The article ends with a discussion of the implications of the results for environmental policy directed at stimulating sustainable consumption

Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

2017-02-01

This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

1982-01-01

In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

Three essays on the econometric analysis of high frequency financial data

OpenAIRE

OOMEN, Roel C. A.

2003-01-01

Defence date: 13 June 2003 Examining Board: Prof. H. Peter Boswijk, University of Amsterdam ; Prof. Søren Johansen, University of Copenhagen, Supervisor ; Prof. Helmut Lütkepohl, EUI ; Prof. Stephen Taylor, Lancaster University This thesis is motivated by the observation that the time series properties of financial security prices can vary fundamentally with their sampling frequency. Econometric models developed for low frequency data may thus be unsuitable for high frequency data and v...

Appendix : airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-19

This is the Appendix for Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity Report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrai...

An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soocheol Lee

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan’s emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

An econometric method for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures : applied to Malawi and Mauritius

OpenAIRE

Ehdaie, Jaber

1990-01-01

This paper develops an econometric technique that deals with shortcomings of existing methods for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures. This model highlights the roles that discretionary tax measures and economic growth play in effecting the shift from the taxation of international trade to the taxation of domestic transactions. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to develop an econometric method of estimating built-in tax elasticit...

Using non-parametric methods in econometric production analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

2012-01-01

by investigating the relationship between the elasticity of scale and the farm size. We use a balanced panel data set of 371~specialised crop farms for the years 2004-2007. A non-parametric specification test shows that neither the Cobb-Douglas function nor the Translog function are consistent with the "true......Econometric estimation of production functions is one of the most common methods in applied economic production analysis. These studies usually apply parametric estimation techniques, which obligate the researcher to specify a functional form of the production function of which the Cobb...... parameter estimates, but also in biased measures which are derived from the parameters, such as elasticities. Therefore, we propose to use non-parametric econometric methods. First, these can be applied to verify the functional form used in parametric production analysis. Second, they can be directly used...

An assessment of econometric models applied to fossil fuel power generation; Un'analisi critica dell'applicazione dei modelli econometrici alla generazione termoelettrica

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gracceva, F.; Quercioli, R. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

2001-07-01

The main purpose of this report is to provide a general view of those studies, in which the econometric approach is applied to the selection of fuel in fossil fired power generation, focusing the attention to the key role played by the fuel prices. The report consists of a methodological analysis and a survey of the studies available in literature. The methodological analysis allows to assess the adequateness of the econometric approach, in the electrical power utilities policy. With this purpose, the fundamentals of microeconomics, which are the basis of the econometric models, are pointed out and discussed, and then the hypotheses, which are needed to be assumed for complying the economic theory, are verified in their actual implementation in the power generation sector. The survey of the available studies provides a detailed description of the Translog and Logit models, and the results achieved with their application. From these results, the estimated models show to fit the data with good approximation, a certain degree of interfuel substitution and a meaningful reaction to prices on demand side. [Italian] In questo rapporto viene tracciato un quadro generale degli studi che utilizzano modelli econometrici per analizzare la scelta dei combustibili nella termogenerazione, con particoalre attenzione al ruolo svolto dal prezzo dei combustibili. La trattazione si compone di un'analisi di tipo metodologico e di una rassegna della letteratura. L'analisi metodologica consente di valutare l'adeguatezza dell'approccio econometrico nell'analisi del comportamento delle imprese di generazione elettrica. A tal fine vengono esplicitati e discussi i fondamenti microeconomici su cui poggiano i modelli econometrici, e viene verificata la sussistenza, nel settore termoelettrico, delle ipotesi che e' necessario assumere per soddisfare la teoria economica. La rassegna fornisce invece una descrizione dei modelli translog e logit lineare, ed un

The Dynamics of Associations and Foundations in Romania. Econometric Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chelariu Gabriel

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This article highlights the evolutionary trend of the associations and foundations in Romania in 1997 – 2015 period of time. We know that the NPO's activities come to cover the people's needs which cannot be supported by the state or by the private sector. More precisely, the major roles of the NPO sector are: supporting disadvantaged groups and the social causes, sustaining the role of "watchdog", and promoting the advocacy and public policy expertise. For this reason, we propose an econometric model that will be applied to establish the link between the number of the association and foundations, poverty rate, unemployment rate and the average monthly expenditure per household. We consider that the last three factors are relevant to the country’s social economy and, at the same time, they represent the main objectives of the EUROPE 2020 Strategy - a strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The study is based on numerical data collected over a period of 12 years from 2003 to 2014. For the econometric model, we use IBM SPSS 22 software, in analyzing the collected data. After processing the data we will find a positive and significant relation between the number of associations and foundations (AF, the average monthly expenditure per household and the poverty rate. At the same time, we will find an insignificant relation between the number of associations and foundations and the unemployment rate.

An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

2008-01-01

Crude oil, coal and gas, known as fossil fuels, play a crucial role in the global economy. This paper proposes new econometrics modelling to demonstrate the trend of fossil fuels consumption. The main variables affecting consumption trends are: world reserves, the price of fossil fuels, US production and US net imports. All variables have been analysed individually for more than half a century. The research found that while the consumption of fossil fuels worldwide has increased trends in the US production and net imports have been dependent on the type of fossil fuels. Most of the US coal and gas production has been for domestic use, which is why it does not have a strong influence on worldwide fossil fuel prices. Moreover, the reserves of fossil fuels have not shown any diminution during the last couple of decades and predictions that they were about to run out are not substantiated. The nominal and real price of fossil fuels was found to change depending on the type. Finally, estimates of three econometric models for the consumption of fossil fuels from 1949 to 2006 are presented which identify the effects of significant variables

Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

Science.gov (United States)

Ibourk, Aomar

2013-01-01

Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

EXPLANATORY ECONOMETRIC METHOD FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOR MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS IN ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosca Constantin

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Our paper, entitled "Explanatory Econometric Method for the Analysis of the Behaviour Management in Organizations in Romania" reflects the wide opening of econometric modelling to quantify the Romanian management issues, representing a practical guidance on multiple recovery plans to fund the huge data collected as part COMOR project launched by the Scientific Society of Management in Romania to characterize the behaviour of managers in the Romanian economic organizations. Construction of these models offers possibilities for complex analysis, descriptive and factorial sequence of firms, counties, geographical areas, but comprehensive summary of studies on the macroeconomic level. Scientific knowledge through a comprehensive assessment of managerial behaviour in the most representative types of business organizations of all geographical areas of the country are, in the context of globalization, one way to prevent surprises market economy. Thus, the results of this exploratory research will provide economic environment, and not only strong argument for anticipating decisions in order to choose the best economic policies, with beneficial effects as conclusive and with as few undesirable implications. Research based on the opinions of thousands of respondents approved, processed through a variety of instruments subject of extensive econometric and interdisciplinary interpretation, psycho-socio-economic management, is a modest contribution to the affirmation of local scientific research that aim for theoretical and applied Romanian school of management by defining: - knowledge of behaviour management in all types of business organizations in Romania; - identifying the Romanian space dimensions of organizational culture as a reflection of the peculiarities of national culture and especially of the main ethnic-specific subcultures; - profile defining effective manager and leader of excellence in terms of character traits and their behaviour.

Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

1977-03-01

The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) – some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

OpenAIRE

Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

2013-01-01

We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the ...

Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

Science.gov (United States)

O'Hara, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

Approaches and methods for econometric analysis of market power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Grings, Michael

2017-01-01

, functional forms, estimation methods and derived estimates of the degree of market power. Thereafter, we use our framework to evaluate several structural models based on PTA and GIM to measure oligopsony power in the Ukrainian dairy industry. The PTA-based results suggest that the estimated parameters......This study discusses two widely used approaches in the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) literature and examines the strengths and weaknesses of the Production-Theoretic Approach (PTA) and the General Identification Method (GIM) for the econometric analysis of market power...... in agricultural and food markets. We provide a framework that may help researchers to evaluate and improve structural models of market power. Starting with the specification of the approaches in question, we compare published empirical studies of market power with respect to the choice of the applied approach...

Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

Science.gov (United States)

Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

2013-07-01

A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, W. P., Jr.

2010-07-01

In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, W P Jr

2010-01-01

In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

Time Series Econometrics for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

The field of econometrics largely started with time series analysis because many early datasets were time-series macroeconomic data. As the field developed, more cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets were collected, which today dominate the majority of academic empirical research. In nonacademic (private sector, central bank, and governmental)…

Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

2014-12-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CEREAL DEMAND IN MOROCCO USING THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM

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Sara Essaten

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Following up the agricultural policy in Morocco and enforcing it, the new strategy Green Morocco Plan (GMP launched in 2008 also stressed on the cereals’ supply. Meantime, despite their significant nutritional role, little attention has been paid to the demand side. This paper intends to perform an econometric analysis of the demand of five main cereals - Common wheat, Durum wheat, Barley, Corn and Rice- using a linear version of the flexible Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS model. A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR approach has been applied to the demand system equations with annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2015. At the overall, regular econometric restrictions (stability, structural separability, validity, etc. have been respected our results suggest that the relations of complementarity or substitution are not determining in the cereal bundle in Morocco. Also, the Moroccan consumer behavior is characterized by a strong sensibility towards common wheat price’s changes and by a difficult access for the durum wheat as it is considered as luxury good.

Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

OpenAIRE

Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

2015-01-01

Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

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Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

2017-10-01

Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION

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Rostyslav Lytvyn

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.

Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro-Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism.

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Nassios, Jason; Giesecke, James A

2018-04-01

Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty). Assembling shocks describing the physical impacts of a terrorist incident is relatively straightforward, since estimates are either readily available or plausibly inferred. However, assembling shocks describing behavioral impacts is more difficult. Values for behavioral variables (e.g., required rates of return) are typically inferred or estimated by indirect means. Generally, this has been achieved via reference to extraneous literature or ex ante surveys. This article explores a new method. We elucidate the magnitude of CGE-relevant structural shifts implicit in econometric evidence on terrorist incidents, with a view to informing future ex ante event assessments. Ex post econometric studies of terrorism by Blomberg et al. yield macro econometric equations that describe the response of observable economic variables (e.g., GDP growth) to terrorist incidents. We use these equations to determine estimates for relevant (unobservable) structural and policy variables impacted by terrorist incidents, using a CGE model of the United States. This allows us to: (i) compare values for these shifts with input assumptions in earlier ex ante CGE studies; and (ii) discuss how future ex ante studies can be informed by our analysis. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Recent Developments in Financial Economics and Econometrics: An Overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2013-01-01

textabstractResearch papers in empirical finance and financial econometrics are among the most widely cited, downloaded and viewed articles in the discipline of Finance. The special issue presents several papers by leading scholars in the field on “Recent Developments in Financial Economics and

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

IBUKUN

1Onoja, A. O. , 2Achike, A. I. and 3Ajibade, T. B.*. 1Department of ... Bank Data Base (1971-2011) which were subjected to econometric tests before applying the ... workforce is involved in agriculture and the sector makes up 32% of the continent‟s GDP. (Halilu ... solving the problems of unemployment and poverty. One of ...

An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Zhidong

2003-01-01

An integrated econometric model consisting of macroeconomic sub-model, energy sub-model and environment sub-model was developed and used to perform a long-term simulation study for China. In the coming 30 years, the potential of GDP growth will be around 7% annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security, air protection, and CO 2 emission reductions. For the sustainable development, more comprehensive measures should be adopted, including improvements in energy efficiency, more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources, imposing carbon tax, development of clean coal technology, establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling, enforcement of air protection, etc

Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

2009-10-01

Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

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DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

2015-06-01

Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

What is mLearning and How Can It Be Used to Support Learning and Teaching in Econometrics?

Science.gov (United States)

Morales, Lucia

2013-01-01

The aim of case this study was to analyze the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance) at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher…

Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dagoumas, A.S.; Barker, T.S.

2010-01-01

This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO 2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO 2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.

A spatial econometric analysis of land-use change with land cover trends data: an application to the Pacific Northwest

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David J. Lewis; Ralph J. Alig

2014-01-01

This paper develops a plot-level spatial econometric land-use model and estimates it with U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends (LCT) geographic information system panel data for the western halves of the states of Oregon and Washington. The discrete-choice framework we use models plot-scale choices of the three dominant land uses in this region: forest, agriculture...

ECONOMETRIC APPROACH OF HETEROSKEDASTICITY ON FINANCIAL TIME SERIES IN A GENERAL FRAMEWORK

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FELICIA RAMONA BIRĂU

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the diagnostic tests for detecting heteroskedasticity on financial time series. In financial econometrics, heteroskedasticity is generally associated with cross sectional data but can also be identified modeling time series data. The presence of heteroscedasticity in financial time series can be caused by certain specific factors, like a model misspecification, inadequate data transformation or as a result of certain outliers. Heteroskedasticity arise when the homoskedasticity assumption is violated. Testing for the presence of heteroskedasticity in financial time is performed by applying diagnostic test, such as : Breusch-Pagan LM test, White’s test, Glesjer LM test, Harvey-Godfrey LM test, Park LM test and Goldfeld-Quand test.

Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

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Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

Tourism Economics in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Analysis

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Prasanna-Perera Lalith Welgamage

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Sri Lanka aims to transform its tourism sector into one of the largest foreign exchange earners in 2016 by attracting 2.5 million high spending tourists. Tourism was ranked as the fifth largest source of foreign exchange earnings in 2012, and third largest in 2013 contributing 5.2 percent to total foreign earnings of the country. Further to this, the Sri Lankan government also identified tourism as a major hub of the country’s economy. Given the multi-dimensional impact the sector has on the country’s economy, it has to be examined systematically. This paper develops an econometric model based on the Cobb-Douglas function to analyze the relation between foreign exchange earnings, tourist arrivals, tourist prices, and tourist spending and direct employment in tourism. These variables of tourism are estimated utilizing model parameters such as R-Studio based on data from the sample period from 2002 to 2013. The formula presented in this study can be used by policy makers to calculate future foreign exchange earnings, employment, arrivals and prices related to tourism in Sri Lanka.

Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

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Mcdonald, J F

1989-01-01

This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

Science.gov (United States)

Travaglini, Guido

2015-09-01

Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OD THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE WATER QUALITY CHANGES ON FISHING ECONOMY

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Marek Antoni Ramczyk

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The econometric model can be a precise instrument for the analysis of the impact of the natural environment's degradation on fishing economy. This paper aims at analysing the influence of the water quality changes in lake Charzykowskie on the fishing economy. This dissertation present the results of a research on the lake water pollution's impact on fishing economy. The economic-ecological models have been constructed, explaining the changes of economic effects of the lake fishery in the conditions of an increasing water pollution in the epilimnion on the example of the catch of Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama, Blicca bjoerkna, Coregonus albula, Coregonus lavaretus, Anguilla anguilla and Esox lucius in Lake Charzykowskie. Performed empirical research looked into the influence of the environmental factors on the size of fish catch. Calculations and analysis show clearly that though the habitat factors do influence the catch size of each studied fish species, they do it with different intensity and in various combinations. Both lake water quality and climate factors changes cause measurable effects on fishing industry of lake Charzykowskie. Among all the examined Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna the highest environmental requirements concerning water quality has Blicca bjoerkna. Whereas Abramis brama has slightly higher environmental requirements than Rutilus rutilus. Empirical calculations showed as well that Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus have considerably higher water cleanness requirements than Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna. While when talking about Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna, most water characteristics still rather stimulated these species' development, when it comes to Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus, in general they suppressed their development. The model has also proved quite high habitat requierements of Anquilla anquilla and correctness of the thesis that

Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

2015-04-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

Science.gov (United States)

Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

2002-06-15

This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

Currency Crisis in Sudan in 2012: An Econometric Analysis

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Alamedin Bannaga, Dr.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The Sudan currency crisis in 2012 occurred when the Sudanese pound lost 66 percent of its value against the US dollar. In this article we adopt statistical methods such as the signal approach and econometric methods such as the Probit Model for identifying and evaluating the currency crisis. We utilize some economic indicators that have the ability to predict the crisis. We examined the capability of these indicators in generating an early warning system for Sudan currency crisis. The study confirms that the incidence of currency crisis in Sudan increases by increase in inflation rate, increase in import percentage of GDP, rise in claims against the central government, reduction in external reserves and existence of political crisis. Moreover, the study finds that the most important predictor of currency crisis in Sudan is decline in external reserves.

The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

SUSTAINING PADDY SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND LAND DEMANDS IN SABAH, MALAYSIA: A STRUCTURAL PADDY AND RICE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ANALYSIS

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Wong Kelly_Kai_Seng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to construct an econometric commodity model in order to forecast the long term rice production performance of the state of Sabah, Malaysia. The baseline projection shows that the Sabah rice self-sufficiency is estimated to achieve approximately38% in the next 10 years due to the scarcity of the suitable land bank allocate for paddy cultivation. In order to achieve 60% of targeted rice self-sufficiency level (SSL, the size of land for paddy cultivation must be increased in Sabah. Based on the scenario simulation projection result, the expansion of paddy cultivation area will contribute a positively to the industrial rice production and consequently achieving the expected 60% of SSL by the end of 2024. In a nutshell, the state government of Sabah possess state autonomy on the land management, thus the state government plays a significant key role on promoting the local rice self-sufficiency level in the long-term period

Market Failure In African Agricultural Marketing Systems: An Econometric Testing And Analysis Of Market Efficiency

OpenAIRE

Gbolahan S. Osho

2011-01-01

The last few years have seen substantial revivals of interest in the determinants of economic growth in Africa, especially in the Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper provides an econometric model that help to examine the impact of market share, interest rate and non-economic factors such as external shocks, structural adjustment policies on the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic development data covering the period of 1970 to 2004 was used in estimation with ordinary least square (OLS). The resul...

The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019

OpenAIRE

Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

2006-01-01

Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s, its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the country in the design of a state policy drawing the lineaments for reaching the pacification of the country. In the first part I use The Beveridge and Nelson decom...

Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 31, 2014 : technical summary

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-31

This is a technical summary of the Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity main report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with anoth...

An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li ZhiDong [Nagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka City (Japan). Dept. of Management and Information System Science

2003-09-01

An integrated econometric model named the 3Es-Model, consisting of macroeconomic sub-model, energy sub-model and environment sub-model was developed and used to perform a long-term simulation study for China. In the coming 30 years, the potential of GDP growth will be around 7% annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security, air protection, and CO{sub 2} emission reductions. For the sustainable development, more comprehensive measures should be adopted, including improvements in energy efficiency, more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources, imposing carbon tax, development of clean coal technology, establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling, enforcement of air protection, etc. 17 refs., 4 figs., 10 tabs.

What is mLearning and how can it be used to support learning and teaching in Econometrics?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lucia Morales

2012-11-01

Full Text Available This research project analyzed the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher detected a clear need for learning support. Econometrics courses are heavily supported by the use of sophisticated statistical software, the availability of which is normally restricted to designated labs in the college. As a result, this project has developed an application that facilitates students’ access to econometrics course work, where a mobile device was used. The main objective of the project was to enable students to bring their course material home with them and use it anywhere, at any time, so that the basic material covered in class could be consulted and reviewed as many times as the students need. The results of this project are very encouraging, as evidence suggests mobile technologies can play a positive role in improving students’ learning experience. Teachers should consider using mobile technologies to support their work in the classroom. In this context, smart phones and PC tablets, the devices used during this study, have proved to be particularly effective. DOI: 10.18870/hlrc.v3i1.69

Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Amaresh

2010-01-01

This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

An econometric time-series analysis of global CO2 concentrations and emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, B.C.; Labys, W.C.; Eliste, P.

2001-01-01

This paper extends previous work on the econometric modelling of CO 2 concentrations and emissions. The importance of such work rests in the fact that models of the Cohen-Labys variety represent the only alternative to scientific or physical models of CO 2 accumulations whose parameters are inferred rather than estimated. The stimulation for this study derives from the recent discovery of oscillations and cycles in the net biospheric flux of CO 2 . A variety of time series tests is thus used to search for the presence of normality, stationarity, cyclicality and stochastic processes in global CO 2 emissions and concentrations series. Given the evidence for cyclicality of a short-run nature in the spectra of these series, both structural time series and error correction model are applied to confirm the frequency and amplitude of these cycles. Our results suggest new possibilities for determining equilibrium levels of CO 2 concentrations and subsequently revising stabilization policies. (Author)

How to decode Unemployment Persistence: An econometric framework for identifying and comparing the sources of persistence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2016-01-01

Most econometric analyses of persistence focus on the existence of non-stationary unemployment but not the origin of this. The present research contains a multivariate econometric framework for identifying and comparing different sources of unemployment persistence (e.g. hysteresis versus a slowly...... moving equilibrium rate). A small example, considering historical data (1988-2006) for the UK, demonstrates how the method can be applied in practice. Although this primarily serves as an illustration, the evidence clearly suggests that persistence was due to a slowly moving equilibrium (driven...

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

Science.gov (United States)

Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-07-19

There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilma E. Waterlander

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Methods/Design The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM study aims to: I derive accurate and precise food PE values; II quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. Discussion The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential

Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

Science.gov (United States)

Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

2007-09-01

The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

Econometric analysis of the effect of marketing costs on grain prices ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Econometric analysis of the effect of marketing costs on grain prices in Kaduna State of Nigeria. JAL Effiong. Abstract. No Abstract. Journal of Agriculture and Social Research Vol. 6 (1) 2006: pp. 11-14. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

Indirect Taxes in Romania – an Econometric Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Penu

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Indirect taxes have a significant weight in the GDP. Statistical data reveals that the new states that joined the EU in its funding sources to the greatest extent through indirect taxes. They reveal, on the one hand, reducing the tax burden on the producer, and on the other hand, the difficulty faced by the country in direct tax collection, but also some problems of social nature. This article proposes an econometric analysis of the relationship between indirect taxes and household final consumption expenditure.

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SEVDA YAPRAKLI

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there is a relationship among foreign direct investment and some of the macroeconomics variables in Turkey. For this purpose for the period of 1970-2006, the relationships among foreign direct investment and GDP, labour cost, real exchange rate, openness and foreign trade deficit are econometrically analyzed by employing multivariate cointegration analysis and error correction model. According to the results, FDI is positively effected by GDP and openness, and negatively by labour cost, real exchange rate ve foreign trade deficit variables. Morever, bi-directional causality is observed among FDI and GDP and real exchange rate.

Econometric estimation of investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms using hyperbolic distance functions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsen, Arne; Fabricius, Ole; Olsen, Jakob Vesterlund

2014-01-01

Based on a theoretical microeconomic model, we econometrically estimate investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms based on a large unbalanced panel dataset. As our theoretical model indicates that adjustment costs are caused both by increased inputs...... of investment activities by the maximum likelihood method so that we can estimate the adjustment costs that occur in the year of the investment and the three following years. Our results show that investments are associated with significant adjustment costs, especially in the year in which the investment...

Firing the furnace? An econometric analysis of utilities' fuel choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tauchmann, H.

2006-01-01

This paper attempts to estimate how the fuel mix of German electricity producers does react to fuel price changes. The empirical analysis is based on panel data (1968-1998) of major utilities. Two different aspects of fuel choice are distinguished: at the one hand, the construction of usually fuel-specific capacities for electric power generation, i.e. investment decisions that determine the fuel mix in the long run; at the other, fuel use conditional on existing generation capacities, i.e. short-run inter-fuel substitution. According to the results from panel unit root tests, both the econometric models which describe these two aspects are specified in changes rather than levels. The partly discrete nature of investment decisions is taken into account, by constructing a discrete model of capacity adjustment. Our estimation results suggest that the fuel mix of electric utilities is price inelastic either if long-term investment or short-term inter-fuel substitution is considered. Finally, the empirical results are used to predict the potential impacts of CO 2 emissions trading on fuel choice in the German electric power industry

Firing the furnace? An econometric analysis of utilities' fuel choice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tauchmann, H.

2006-01-01

This paper attempts to estimate how the fuel mix of German electricity producers does react to fuel price changes. The empirical analysis is based on panel data (1968-1998) of major utilities. Two different aspects of fuel choice are distinguished: at the one hand, the construction of usually fuel-specific capacities for electric power generation, i.e. investment decisions that determine the fuel mix in the long run; at the other, fuel use conditional on existing generation capacities, i.e. short-run inter-fuel substitution. According to the results from panel unit root tests, both the econometric models which describe these two aspects are specified in changes rather than levels. The partly discrete nature of investment decisions is taken into account, by constructing a discrete model of capacity adjustment. Our estimation results suggest that the fuel mix of electric utilities is price inelastic either if long-term investment or short-term inter-fuel substitution is considered. Finally, the empirical results are used to predict the potential impacts of CO 2 emissions trading on fuel choice in the German electric power industry. (Author)

Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hache, Emmanuel; Lantz, Frederic

2011-04-01

The aim of this paper is to study the oil price volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short-term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of noncommercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices. (authors)

Teacher Salaries and Teacher Unions: A Spatial Econometric Approach

OpenAIRE

John V. Winters

2011-01-01

The author uses a spatial econometric framework to examine the determinants of teacher salaries in the United States, including union activity in the teachers' own and in neighboring districts, teacher salaries in nearby districts, and other school district characteristics such as size and student-teacher ratios. Using the 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Survey as well as the School District Demographic System and Bureau of Labor Statistics data sets, he finds that union activity increases sal...

Regional distribution of photovoltaic deployment in the UK and its determinants: A spatial econometric approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye; Yildirim, Julide; Connor, Peter M.

2015-01-01

Photovoltaic (PV) panels offer significant potential for contributing to the UK's energy policy goals relating to decarbonisation of the energy system, security of supply and affordability. The substantive drop in the cost of panels since 2007, coupled with the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Scheme in 2010, has resulted in a rapid increase in installation of PV panels in the UK, from 26.5MWp in 2009 to over 5GW by the end of 2014. Yet there has been no comprehensive analysis of the determinants of PV deployment in the UK. This paper addresses this gap by employing spatial econometrics methods to a recently available data set at a fine geographical detail. Following a traditional regression analysis, a general to specific approach has been adopted where spatial variations in the relationships have been examined utilising the spatial Durbin model using the cross-sectional data relating to the UK NUTS level 3 data. Empirical results indicate that demand for electricity, population density, pollution levels, education level of households and housing types are among the factors that affect PV uptake in a region. Moreover Lagrange Multiplier test results indicate that the spatial Durbin model may be properly applied to describe the PV uptake relationship in the UK as there are significant regional spillover effects. - Highlights: • Spatial econometrics models applied to UK PV installation for the first time • Significant regional spillover effects are apparent. • Smaller households in highly polluted, less dense areas are the early adopters. • Strong substitution effect as high electricity spending induces PV installations. • Solar irradiation data are found to be significant.

On the rise of Bayesian econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baştürk, N.; Çakmak, C.; Pinar Ceyhan, S.; van Dijk, H.K.

2014-01-01

This paper starts with a brief description of the introduction of the likelihood approach in econometrics as presented in Cowles Foundation Monographs 10 and 14. A sketch is given of the criticisms on this approach mainly from the first group of Bayesian econometricians. Publication and citation

Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

2001-01-01

Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.

A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

Science.gov (United States)

Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

2007-09-01

This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

Application of econometric and ecology analysis methods in physics software

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Min Cheol; Hoff, Gabriela; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Kim, Sung Hun; Grazia Pia, Maria; Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Saracco, Paolo

2017-10-01

Some data analysis methods typically used in econometric studies and in ecology have been evaluated and applied in physics software environments. They concern the evolution of observables through objective identification of change points and trends, and measurements of inequality, diversity and evenness across a data set. Within each analysis area, various statistical tests and measures have been examined. This conference paper summarizes a brief overview of some of these methods.

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Science.gov (United States)

Reikard, Gordon

2011-06-01

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

1998-01-01

We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

Energy demand, substitution and environmental taxation: An econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the Danish economy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2017-01-01

in a more environmental-friendly direction. For eight subsectors of the Danish economy, time series (1966–2011) are modeled by means of partial Cointegrated VARs. Long-run demand relations are identified for all subsectors and robust price elasticities are supported in five cases. The results are used......This research contains an econometric analysis of energy demand in trade and industry which allows for substitution between electricity and other energy carriers when relative prices change. The presence of substitution suggests that taxation can be a means of changing the energy input mix...

Heterogeneous trade agreements, WTO membership and international trade : an analysis using matching econometrics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kohl, Tristan; Trojanowska, Sofia

2015-01-01

This article explores the heterogeneous effects of trade agreements (TAs) and World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on the volume of international trade. We extend Baier and Bergstrand’s (2009a) application of matching econometrics by distinguishing between different types of TAs and WTO

An Exploratory Analysis of Economic Factors in the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-12-01

the model incorporates (in the personnel calculations) econometric effects to Losses by Expiration of Active Obligated Service, Attrition, and Length...Incorporate econometric effects of losses by LOS and paygrade using parameters generated by the Navy Econometric Modeling System (NEMS) to the greatest...community- level models . (CAP9) • Model architecture will support hosting of model , scenarios, (inputs, user comments, etc.) and outputs in a secure

Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models.

Science.gov (United States)

Camenzind, Paul A

2012-03-13

In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered.

Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance; An Econometric Evaluation

OpenAIRE

Peter Stella; Ulrich H Klueh

2008-01-01

The financial health of central banks and its relation to policy outcomes has recently been recognized as an important policy issue. While case study evidence clearly indicates that weak central bank finances can hamper effective policy implementation, the question of whether central bank financial strength influences policy performance remains controversial. This is due, in part, to a lack of econometric evidence. The paper presents a first step toward filling this gap, by providing a quanti...

ECONOMETRICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE INTERDEPENDECE BETWEEN FISCALITY RATE- FISCAL INCOMES- GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

OpenAIRE

POPA IONELA; PIETRARU ALINA; CODREANU DIANA

2009-01-01

Econometrics has come into being and grown as a result of the need to set up instruments of investigation and increase of the methods to organize, conduct and manage the economy, and on the other hand, due to the successful statistical and mathematical me

Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Tsolakis

2005-01-01

textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four

Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

2001-01-01

Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration conts are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change

The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - An econometric approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J. Nigel B.; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A.

2010-01-01

Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O 3 , with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O 3 impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O 3 tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. - Econometric study of British winter wheat trial plot data suggests lower economic loss than predicted from experiments.

La teoría de la ciencia de Karl Popper y la econometría

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Redman Deborah A.

1995-12-01

Full Text Available En este ensayo mostraré que la teoría de la falsación ejerció su principalimpacto en los primeros desarrollos de la macroeconomía, quein fortunadamente su impacto a largo plazo no ha sido productivo y que el seguimiento de este desarrollo ayuda a explicar muchos de los actuales escándalos en la econometría y la macroeconomía. Dado que la literatura ha difundido muchos mitos sobre la teoría de la ciencia de Popper, primero revisaré sus teorías de las ciencias naturales y sociales y explicaré por qué la falsación fracasa en ambas ramas antes de exponer la conexión con la econometría.

Econometric Analysis of Effects of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Usage on Tomato Yield in Tokat, Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bilge Gözener

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the effects of nitrogen fertilizer application on tomato yield by using econometric models. The data obtained by questionnaire from 53 farmers who produce tomatoes in Tokat province constitute the main material of the study. The Simple Random Sampling Method was used to determine the sample size with a 90% confidence interval and 10% margin of error. Nine models were tried to determine the best model to explain the effect of nitrogenous fertilizer usage in tomato cultivation. The data in the models were used to calculate the growers’ optimal fertilizer amount of use (physical optimum and economical optimum values were calculated and the results were compared to the ones suggested by the experts. As a result, through the statistical studies, quadratic model was found to be the most suitable one. It has been determined that tomato farmers use less (10.54 kg da-1 or excess (23.48 kg da-1 N fertilizer than the level at which economic optimum is achieved.

Kriging Methodology and Its Development in Forecasting Econometric Time Series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Gajdoš

2017-03-01

Full Text Available One of the approaches for forecasting future values of a time series or unknown spatial data is kriging. The main objective of the paper is to introduce a general scheme of kriging in forecasting econometric time series using a family of linear regression time series models (shortly named as FDSLRM which apply regression not only to a trend but also to a random component of the observed time series. Simultaneously performing a Monte Carlo simulation study with a real electricity consumption dataset in the R computational langure and environment, we investigate the well-known problem of “negative” estimates of variance components when kriging predictions fail. Our following theoretical analysis, including also the modern apparatus of advanced multivariate statistics, gives us the formulation and proof of a general theorem about the explicit form of moments (up to sixth order for a Gaussian time series observation. This result provides a basis for further theoretical and computational research in the kriging methodology development.

Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

Science.gov (United States)

Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

2011-01-01

Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ibegbulam, B.N.

1991-01-01

Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase

Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

Analysis of Regional Unemployment in Russia and Germany: Spatial-Econometric Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Vyacheslavovna Semerikova

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The study was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation, grant No.11.G34.31.0059. This paper analyzes the regional unemployment in Russia and Germany in 2005-2010 and addresses issues of choosing the right specification of spatial-econometric models. The analysis based on data of 75 Russian and 370 German regions showed that for Germany the choice of the spatial weighting matrix has a more significant influence on the parameter estimates than for Russia. Presumably this is due to stronger linkages between regional labor markets in Germany compared to Russia. The authors also proposed an algorithm for choosing between spatial matrices and demonstrated the application of this algorithm on simulated Russian data. The authors found that 1 the deviation of the results from the true ones increases when the spatial dependence between regions is higher and 2 the matrix of inverse distances is more preferable than the boundary one for the analysis of regional unemployment in Russia (because of the lower value of the mean squared error. The authors are also planning to apply the proposed algorithm for simulated data of Germany. These results allow accounting the spatial dependence more correctly when modeling regional unemployment which is very important for making proper regional policy

Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

2002-07-01

Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

2015-01-01

Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

Modeling financial time series with S-plus

CERN Document Server

Zivot, Eric

2003-01-01

The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Washington, and is co-director of the nascent Professional Master's Program in Computational Finance He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the He...

Econometric analysis of the effects of subsidies on farm production in case of endogenous input quantities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henningsen, Arne; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Lien, Gudbrand

The effect of subsidies on farm production has been a major topic in agricultural economics for several decades. We present a new approach for analyzing the effects of different types of coupled and decoupled subsidies on farm production with econometric methods. In contrast to most previous...

Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

2015-06-01

Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance of Selected Asian Countries. An Econometric Analysis of China Economic Growth and Policy Implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hasret Benar Balcioglu

2009-09-01

Full Text Available This paper compares the key macroeconomics indicators for the selected countries: China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Rep. and India and also makes an econometric analysis for China for the period 1961-2007. These countries are chosen on the basis of comparability of data and time without measurement errors. This study also investigates six hypotheses considering the impact of several key macroeconomic variables such as domestic saving rate, domestic investment rate, and volatility of savings, volatility of inflation, growth rate of exports and growth rate of real GNP. By using suitable statistical and econometric tests, this paper finds that prevailing performance of China depends on its superior rates of domestic saving and exports. Policies are also suggested from the differentials between the economic performances of China and other chosen Asian countries.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

Un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle imprese in Italia (An econometric model for bank lending to companies in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Casolaro

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico del credito bancario alle imprese in Italia per il periodo 1988-2004. I prestiti bancari sono espressi in funzione del rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (che approssima il fabbisogno di finanziamenti esterni, delle attività immobilizzate nel bilancio delle imprese (misurate dallo stock di capitale e del differenziale tra il tasso sui prestiti a breve termine e il rendimento del mercato interbancario (che approssima il costo relativo del credito bancario rispetto a forme di finanziamento alternative. I risultati empirici evidenziano nel lungo periodo un legame diretto del credito bancario con le attività immobilizzate (l’elasticità è pari a uno e con il rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (l’incremento di un punto percentuale del rapporto produce un’espansione del credito del 2%. Le stime econometriche mostrano al contrario una correlazione negativa con il differenziale tra i tassi d’interesse: un aumento di 10 punti base del differenziale tra i tassi determinerebbe, infatti, una riduzione del credito nel lungo periodo pari allo 0,7%.   This paper presents the estimation of an econometric model of bank credit to firms in Italy for the period 1988-2004. Bank loans are expressed as a function of the ratio of fixed capital formation and gross operating margin (which approximates the external financing needs of fixed assets in the financial statements of companies (as measured by the stock of capital and the difference between the interest rate on short-term loans and efficiency of the interbank market (which approximates the relative cost of bank credit compared to alternative forms of financing.The empirical results show a direct link between long-term bank credit with fixed assets (the elasticity is equal to one and the ratio of fixed capital formation and gross operating profit (increase of one percentage point of the report

An expert system for national economy model simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roljić Lazo

2002-01-01

Full Text Available There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS. ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1 small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2 Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP, (3 data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4 software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5 software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia. Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate

First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

2014-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

Econometric modelling of conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, J.C.; Seal, D.J.

1990-01-01

The issue of energy conservation in general, and conservation in the natural gas markets in particular, has recently had a much lower profile than in the past, when energy prices were significantly higher and energy costs composed a much larger proportion of industrial operating costs than today. The recent downward trend in energy prices has diverted attention away from this issue. In the face of expected significant real price increases, increasing pressure from environmental groups, and directives on the part of regulator authorities, conservation is once again becoming a topic of consideration in the energy industry. From the point of view of gas demand forecasting, conservation has received too little attention. The intentions of this paper are to establish the need for forecasting conservation in the natural gas utility sector, and to construct a model of industrial demand which incorporates conservation and is appropriate for use as a forecasting tool

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN PAKISTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS USING JOHANSEN CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

OpenAIRE

Furrukh Bashi; Shahbaz Nawaz; Kalsoom Yasi; Usman Khursheed; Jahanzeb Khan; Muhammad Junaid Qureshi

2011-01-01

Inflation is regarded as regressive taxation against the poor. The most visible impact of inflation in recent times is its effect on real output, relative prices, taxes and interest rates. The study focuses to examine demand side and supply side determinants of inflation in Pakistan on economic and econometric criterion and also to investigate causal relationships among some macroeconomic variables. For that purpose, study has undertaken time series data for the period from 1972 to 2010. Long...

Modelling gas markets - a survey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Modelling gas markets - a survey

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-12-31

This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, J. A.

1978-01-01

Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Niels Framroze

2008-01-01

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

Prácticas para el aprendizaje de la econometría avanzada

OpenAIRE

Esteban González, María Victoria; Modroño Herrán, Juan Ignacio; Orbe Mandaluniz

2014-01-01

En este libro, los autores han recolectado y ordenado el material docente que han elaborado a lo largo de los últimos cursos académicos para la asignatura de Econometría, de la Licenciatura en Economía en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales de la UPV/EHU. Los autores han colaborado en distintos proyectos de innovación docente que han permitido desarrollar la asignatura con aprovechamiento de las TICs, y han participado, entre otras actividades, en programas de innovación docent...

Assessing the capital efficiency of healthcare information technologies investments: an econometric perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Rodolphe; Degoulet, Patrice

2008-01-01

To examine the different methods that can be used in the quantification of the added value of information technologies (IT) in the health care sector. This quantification represents a major issue for decision-makers and health care professionals when they have to plan an IT investment. Articles were chosen via Medline, internet and the University of Geneva bibliographic portal. Some of the papers were obtained directly from their authors. We examine the most current methods used to evaluate IT return on investment (ROI) in the general business and in the health care sector, drawing attention on methods traditionally used in macroeconomic studies that could reveal themselves disruptive for IT ROI impact evaluation in hospitals. Financial and accounting methods can provide interesting data on a specific IT project but are usually incomplete for revealing the global IT investment influence. Econometric methods tend to demonstrate the positive impact of health care IT (HIT) on hospital production and productivity. Hospitals having higher levels of IT investment tend to deliver a higher level of clinical quality and show improved hospital cost performances. Information technologies are so intermingled with people and processes that the identification of specific IT benefit remains questionable. Using macroeconomic tools could be the best way to analyze and compute IT ROI in health care. Econometric tools take into account all types investments (inputs) and all the returns (outputs) enabling the precise measurement of IT investments impact, breakeven points, and possible threshold levels, thus providing helpful intelligence to reach the higher levels of IT governance in hospitals.

An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollitt, Hector; Park, Seung-Joon; Lee, Soocheol; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2014-01-01

In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econometric E3MG model. Our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to Japanese GDP is close to zero, and for employment the impact is slightly positive. Our results also show a double-dividend effect if (revenue-neutral) carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the GHG reduction targets, and this double-dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power. However, our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25% reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power. - Highlights: • We modelled 12 scenarios for Japan with different shares for nuclear power and different emission targets. • The results showed that phasing out nuclear power would have at most a very small reduction in GDP. • If a carbon tax with revenue recycling is applied, there could be an increase in GDP. • But the carbon price required to meet Japan's 25% emission reduction target is very high if the share of nuclear power is reduced

Quality competition in local hospital markets: some econometric evidence from the period 1982-1988.

Science.gov (United States)

Chirikos, T N

1992-05-01

This study examines whether American hospitals continued to engage in non-price or quality competition over the recent past as health care markets underwent fundamental structural changes and the economic incentives facing hospital managers were correspondingly altered. It also investigates the degree to which such rivalrous behavior contributes to losses in economic welfare. An econometric model of quality competition is specified that tests, among other things, for the effect of spending by the hospital to enhance the quality of output on annual changes in its share of the local (inpatient) market as well as the effects of competitive conditions in the local market on the annual sum spent on quality enhancement. The model is estimated with panel data on 195 acute care hospitals in the State of Florida for the years 1982-1988. The results suggest that quality competitive behavior continued unabated over this period and that it was stimulated as much by the growth in physician supply and alternative delivery mechanisms as it was by other competing hospitals in the local market. Furthermore, the results show that quality competition yields some inefficiency or waste, but much of it also meets the test of the market.

The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

2010-05-01

Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling and forecasting the supply of oil and gas: a survey of existing approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walls, M.A.

1992-01-01

This paper surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling. The models fall into two broad categories: geologic/engineering and econometric. Two types of geologic/engineering models are surveyed - play analysis, or simulation models and discovery process models. A third category of supply models, 'hybrids', which contain features of both econometric and discovery process models are also discussed. Particular attention is paid to whether or not the models have linkages between a dynamic model of producer optimizing behaviour and the factors governing supply of the resource; whether or not expectations of future prices, costs, and other stochastic variables are incorporated; whether the physical characteristics of non-renewable resources are captured; and how well the models perform. The paper concludes that the best path for future research efforts is a hybrid approach where the econometric component is derived from a stochastic dynamic optimization model of exploration behaviour. 51 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

Energy efficiency and econometric analysis of broiler production farms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heidari, M.D.; Omid, M.; Akram, A.

2011-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the energy consumption per 1000 bird for the broiler production in Yazd province, Iran. The data were collected from 44 farms by using a face-to-face questionnaire method during January–February 2010. The collected information was analyzed using descriptive statistics, economic analysis and stochastic frontier production function. The production technology of the farmer was assumed to be specified by the Cobb–Douglas (CD) production function. Total input energy was found to be 186,885.87 MJ (1000 bird) −1 while the output energy was 27,461.21 MJ (1000 bird) −1 . The values of specific energy and energy ratio were calculated at 71.95 MJ kg −1 and 0.15, respectively. The sensitivity of energy inputs was estimated using the marginal physical productivity (MPP) method. The MPP value showed the high impact of human labor and machinery energy inputs on output energy. Returns to scale (RTS) values for broiler were found to be 0.96; thus, there prevailed a decreasing RTS for the estimated model. The net return was found positive, as 1386.53 $ (1000 bird) −1 and the benefit to cost ratio from broiler production was calculated to be 1.38. The study revealed that production of meat was profitable in the studied area. -- Highlights: ► We determined the energy use efficiency (EUE) for the broiler production as 0.15, indicating inefficiency use of energy in these farms. ► Total input and output energies were found to be 186,885.87 MJ (1000 bird) −1 and 27,461.21 MJ (1000 bird) −1 , respectively. ► Cobb–Douglas (CD) frontier production function was found useful in developing econometric model for broiler production. ► The results of budgetary analysis indicate production of meat in broiler farms is profitable in the studied area.

Econometric Mediation Analyses: Identifying the Sources of Treatment Effects from Experimentally Estimated Production Technologies with Unmeasured and Mismeasured Inputs.

Science.gov (United States)

Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

2015-01-01

This paper presents an econometric mediation analysis. It considers identification of production functions and the sources of output effects (treatment effects) from experimental interventions when some inputs are mismeasured and others are entirely omitted. JEL Code: D24, C21, C43, C38.

Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

Science.gov (United States)

Serje, Juliana; Bertram, Melanie Y; Brindley, Callum; Lauer, Jeremy A

2018-01-01

Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

Estimation of the value-at-risk parameter: Econometric analysis and the extreme value theory approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mladenović Zorica

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper different aspects of value-at-risk estimation are considered. Daily returns of CISCO, INTEL and NASDAQ stock indices are analyzed for period: September 1996 - September 2006. Methods that incorporate time varying variability and heavy tails of the empirical distributions of returns are implemented. The main finding of the paper is that standard econometric methods underestimate the value-at-risk parameter if heavy tails of the empirical distribution are not explicitly taken into account. .

The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, Martin [Institute for Advanced Studies, Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna (Austria)

2008-08-15

We discuss several major econometric problems that have been ignored in the empirical environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) literature thus far. These are: First, the use of nonlinear transformations of integrated regressors and second, in a panel context, cross-sectional dependence in the data. Both problems fundamentally invalidate the use of widely applied time series and panel unit root and cointegration techniques. We use the important special case of the relationship between GDP and CO{sub 2} (and SO{sub 2}) emissions to show and discuss in detail that the seemingly strong evidence for an inverted U-shaped relationship between these variables obtained with commonly used methods is entirely spurious and vanishes when resorting to estimation strategies that take the discussed problems into account. (author)

Valuing structure, model uncertainty and model averaging in vector autoregressive processes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

2004-01-01

textabstractEconomic policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on accurate econometric modeling. However, a decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, while an analyst must also be interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on

Un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia (An econometric model for bank lending to households in Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Casolaro

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia nel periodo 1984-2003. Il modello si compone di due equazioni: prestiti per l’acquisto di abitazioni e altri prestiti alle famiglie (tipicamente credito al consumo e finanziamenti in conto corrente. Entrambe le equazioni evidenziano uno stretto legame con l’andamento congiunturale dell’economia e il livello dei tassi di interesse reali; i mutui alle famiglie sono influenzati anche dalla dinamica del mercato immobiliare e di quello azionario. Il lavoro verifica l’esistenza di cambiamenti strutturali nelle equazioni in relazione alle trasformazioni intervenute nel mercato del credito nella seconda parte degli anni novanta e scompone il contributo alla crescita del credito alle famiglie tra i diversi fattori.  This paper presents the estimation of an econometric model for bank lending to households in Italy in the period 1984-2003. The model consists of two equations: loans for house purchase and other loans to households (typically consumer credit and loans in the current account. Both equations show a close relationship with the economic trend and the level of real interest rates; household mortgages are also influenced by the dynamics of the housing market and the equity market. The work verifies the existence of structural changes in the equations in relation to the changes occurred in the credit market in the second half of the nineties and breaks down the contribution to growth in lending to households between the different factors.  JEL Codes: D12, G21Keywords: credito bancario, famiglie, prestiti, modello econometrico

Econometric modelling for the analysis of carbon tax impacts in Korea - with an emphasis on the role of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, M.K.; Kim, S.S.; Moon, K.H.; Song, K.D.; Choi, Y.M.

1997-01-01

It is very important to take a look at the role of nuclear energy within the framework of energy demand and supply when the international environmental regulation is imposed. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of imposition of carbon tax on energy sector in Korea. To do so, an econometric simulation model was developed. The model is composed of not only energy part in detail but also economic activity part in a rather simple manner. To analyze the electric sector in detail, energy block is divided into the electric and the non-electric energy sector. In the electric sector there are four blocks such as demand, conversion efficiency, fuel, and price. Several carbon tax scenarios were assumed to figure out the impacts on such variables as C0 sub 2 emissions, GDP, energy demand and price. After estimating the carbon tax effects, another set of scenario was created in analyzing the possible role of nuclear power for alleviating the impacts from carbon tax. From the results it is found that the national economy is significantly influenced according to which regulation is adopted. If international regulation is imposed on the quantity of total carbon emission, the impact is so severe that Korean economy could not stand alone. Therefore, the economy cannot overcome the impact from the regulation only by the increased share of nuclear. However, if the regulation is imposed on the quantity of carbon emission proportional to population instead of total carbon emission, it would bring definitely better opportunity to the Korean economy. In the latter case, there is room that nuclear can contribute. If the share of nuclear increases up to 60% in 2020 instead of 45%, GDP would rise by 1.9% while the electricity price lower by 46%. The model could be used in other purposed such as studies on the impacts from fuel prices increases, from capital investment costs increases, and so on

Essays in financial economics and econometrics

Science.gov (United States)

La Spada, Gabriele

Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the

Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Clare; Hall, Stephen; Mabey, N.

1995-01-01

An economometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, aiming to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long-term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. (author)

Econometría Espacial Aplicada a la Agricultura de Precisión

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodolfo Bongiovanni

2013-04-01

Full Text Available La agricultura de precisión se define como la “aplicación de tecnologías y principios de manejo de cultivos para manejar la variabilidad espacio-temporal asociada a la producción agrícola”.El artículo muestra cómo la econometría espacial se puede aplicar al estudio de los datos del monitor de rendimiento para estimar la respuesta del cultivo al fertilizante.En un estudio de caso de fertilización del maíz con nitrógeno en 1998-99 indican: hay autocorrelación espacial y heterocedasticidad en la respuesta del maíz; la respuesta al nitrógeno y las dosis óptimas de nitrógeno difieren en las distintas posiciones topográficas dentro del lote; la dosis variable de nitrógeno es rentable a un costo extra de USD 6 ha-1; la respuesta al nitrógeno y las dosis óptimas por posición en el lote difieren de año en año.Este resultado es interesante y alienta el uso de la econometría espacial en modelos espaciales, como una herramienta efectiva para determinar la rentabilidad de la dosis variable. Se debe tener en cuenta que se trata de un análisis “ex-post”, es decir, se asume que la respuesta del cultivo al N se conoce al momento de realizar la fertilización. A pesar de que la respuesta esperada nunca se va a conocer con certeza, un análisis económico de este tipo es el punto de partida que permite comenzar a comprender las implicaciones del manejo sitio-específico.

Models and relations in economics and econometrics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juselius, Katarina

1999-01-01

Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

Existing agricultural ecosystem in China leads to environmental pollution: an econometric approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Hongdou, Lei; Shiping, Li; Hao, Li

2018-06-17

Sustainable agriculture ensures food security and prevents starvation. However, the need to meet the increasing food demands of the growing population has led to poor and unsustainable agricultural practices, which promote environmental degradation. Given the contributions of agricultural ecosystems to environmental pollution, we investigated the impact of the agricultural ecosystem on environmental pollution in China using time series data from 1960 to 2014. We employed several methods for econometric analysis including the unit root test, Johansen test of cointegration, Granger causality test, and vector error correction model. Evidence based on the long-run elasticity indicates that a 1% increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent to nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will increase the emissions of CO 2 by 1.52% in the long run. Similarly, a 1% increase in the area of harvested rice paddy, cereal production, biomass of burned crop residues, and agricultural GDP will increase the carbon dioxide emissions by 0.85, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.22%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among the selected variables considered for the agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, we identified bidirectional causal associations between CO 2 emissions, biomass of burned crop residues, and cereal production. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach

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Robert P. Berrens

2011-11-01

Full Text Available This study investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC relationship is supported for a measure of biodiversity risk and economic development across the United States (US. Using state-level data for all 48 contiguous states, biodiversity risk is measured using a Modified Index (MODEX. This index is an adaptation of a comprehensive National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. The MODEX differs from other measures in that it is takes into account the impact of human activities and conservation measures. The econometric approach includes corrections for spatial autocorrelation effects, which are present in the data. Modeling estimation results do not support the EKC hypothesis for biodiversity risk in the US. This finding is robust over ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag models, where the latter is shown to be the preferred model. Results from the spatial lag regression show that a 1% increase in human population density is associated with about a 0.19% increase in biodiversity risk. Spatial dependence in this case study explains 30% of the variation, as risk in one state spills over into adjoining states. From a policy perspective, this latter result supports the need for coordinated efforts at state and federal levels to address the problem of biodiversity loss.

An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gan, Peck Yean; Li, ZhiDong

2008-01-01

We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

The economic viability of value-based food chain for dairy farms in mountain regions: an econometric analysis approach

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Jernej Prišenk

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The attention of this paper is drawn to analyze the economic potential of involvement of farmers into the small-medium sized value-based food chain (VBFC. The survey represents a solid dana basis from which econometric modelling approach was further developed. Empirical results reveal the positive economic viability on a general level; this means more stable purchase price of raw milk for dairy farms, which are the part of value-based food chain. Results point at inelastic demand for milk and milk related products. Furthermore, there are some accompanying and underlying indirect social benefits, such as production of high-quality food products, more stable and constant demand for raw milk, steady payments and better social situation. The last one is especially important for the farms operating in less-favored mountain areas where the survey was actually conducted.

Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

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Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

2014-11-01

We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

Determinants of the distribution and concentration of biogas production in Germany. A spatial econometric analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scholz, Lukas

2015-01-01

The biogas production in Germany is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution and the formation of regional centers. In the present study the determinants of the spatial distribution and concentration are analyzed with methods of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. In addition to the consideration of ''classic'' site factors of agricultural production, the analysis here focuses on the possible relevance of agglomeration effects. The results of the work contribute to a better understanding of the regional distribution and concentration of the biogas production in Germany. [de

Are happiness and productivity lower among young people with newly-divorced parents? : an experimental and econometric approach

OpenAIRE

Proto, Eugenio; Sgroi, Daniel; Oswald, Andrew J.

2012-01-01

High rates of divorce in western society have prompted much research on the repercussions for well-being and the economy. Yet little is known about the important topic of whether parental divorce has deleterious consequences upon adult children. By combining experimental and econometric survey-based evidence, this study attempts to provide an answer. Under controlled conditions, it measures university students’ subjective well-being and productivity (in a standardized laboratory task). It fin...

Spatial Econometric Research on the Relationship between Highway Construction and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Nationwide Panel Data

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Ye, N. J.; Li, W. J.; Li, Y.; Bai, Y. F.

2017-12-01

Based on spatial panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway construction and regional economic growth by means of spatial econometric model. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation on regional economic growth in China, and strong spatial dependences between some provinces and cities appear, specifically, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas show high-high agglomeration trend, the Pearl River Delta region presents high-low agglomeration trend; In terms of nationwide provinces and municipalities, a province’s highway construction investment for their own province and the neighboring provinces has pulling effect on economic growth to a certain extent, and the direct effect is more obvious.

FORECAST PRODUCTION COSTS SUGAR IN THE PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA THROUGH ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES

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Ramón Rodríguez-Betancourt

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The conformation at the present time, of an economic model renovated in Cuba, it should be based in the efficient use of the productive factors which it counts the country, with emphasis in the substitution of imports. In the chapter VII, article 184 of the Limits of the Economic and Social Politics of the Party and the Revolution it can be read: "To prioritize, in short term, the substitution of imports of those foods that can be produced efficiently in the country; also it will owe to multiply the application of the results of the science and the technique."1 In fact the objective of the present investigation, using econometrics technical to carry out presage of the cost of sugar production, using factors in the productive process: days of harvest, use of the potential, recovered capacity and industrial yield. The results indicate  that the factor with more influences in the decrease of the costs is the industrial yield. It is also obtained a cost presage for the county Santiago de Cuba in different harvest stages that oscillates between $372,45 and 517,52 and it stops extreme values of $ 303,21 and $ 777,6. 

Modeling Chaotic Behavior of Chittagong Stock Indices

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Shipra Banik

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model.

An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gan, Peck Yean [Department of Engineering-Energy and Environment Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan); Li, ZhiDong [Department of Management and Information System Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan)

2008-02-15

We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

MODEL OF ANALYSIS IN THE ROMANIAN FOOTWEAR INDUSTRY

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Dimi OFILEANU

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this work is to determine the influence that exports of footwear industry have on the turnover of the sector. In the work, a period of 9 years is taken into consideration: from 2004 to 2012, establishing an econometric model of analysis of the connection between the turnover and direct exports of footwear industry in Romania. Based on the analyzed empirical data, the work answers to the following question: what is the influence that exports of footwear industry have on sector’s turnover? In addition to specifying the econometric model which describes the connection between the two variables, we also test the validity of the model and the intensity of the connection between the two variables.

On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods

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Polshkov Yulian M.

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states.

Una teoria macroeconomica della distribuzione per disperdere le nebbie dell'economia. (A macro-distributive theory dispelling the econometric fog

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S. WEINTRAUB

2013-12-01

Full Text Available L'opera presenta un modello lineare del settore del mercato privato dell'economia costruito in blocchi principali di Keynes , con alcuni pezzi forniti da Kalecki , Kaldor , e Robinson . L'autore sostiene che tale modello è ricco di promesse in virtù della sua portata e che risolve gran parte del mistero dei modelli econometrici e dimostra le circostanze in cui essi sono suscettibili di agire bene o male . Pedagogicamente , le idee di base sono facilemnte trasmissibilinella prima fase degli studi economici The work presents a linear model of the private market sector of the economy built out of the main blocks of Keynes with some pieces furnished by Kalecki, Kaldor, and Robinson. The author argues that such model is rich in promise by virtue of its scope and that it strips much of the mystery from econometric models and demonstrates the circumstances in which they are likely to perform well or badly. The consistent relations offer hospitable shelter for the theory of income, employment, price level, and income shares in a succinct design. Pedagogically, the elemental ideas are capable of transmission at an early stage in economic studies. JEL: E12

Micro-econometric Analysis of Impact of Remittances on Household’s Welfare: Empirical Evidence from District Peshawar

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Syed Waqar Hussain

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The present study has been conducted in the year 2010 in district Peshawar to assess the impact of inflow of remittances on household’s welfare. The concept welfare was measured in terms of consumption expenditures of the household. A sample of 60 household was interviewed using snowball sampling combined with the convenient sampling technique. A regression model which was a mixture of direct elasticity and semi-elasticity was used to quantify the relationships. Apart from inflow of remittances (lnremt, three control variables (i.e. years of schooling of the household’s head – edu, age of household’s head – age & family size – fz were employed to standardize the impact. Controlling for edu, age & edu, this paper conclude that inflow of remittances enhance household’s welfare. All control variables have theoretically correct positive signs. These results were statistically significant and results showed no major econometric problems that can influence statistical inference derived from the model. So it is highly recommended, in light of the present study, that govt. of Pakistan should take all possible steps to export labors abroad. It has dual positive impacts, one enhancing household’s prosperity (welfare and other reducing unemployment at local level.

Time Series Modeling of Army Mission Command Communication Networks: An Event-Driven Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-01

Lehmann, D. R. (1984). How advertising affects sales: Meta- analysis of econometric results. Journal of Marketing Research , 21, 65-74. Barabási, A. L...317-357. Leone, R. P. (1983). Modeling sales-advertising relationships: An integrated time series- econometric approach. Journal of Marketing ... Research , 20, 291-295. McGrath, J. E., & Kravitz, D. A. (1982). Group research. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 195- 230. Monge, P. R., & Contractor

An econometric analysis of a regional power company and evaluation of its investment policies by using optimal control technique: The case of New York State Electric and Gas Corporation

Science.gov (United States)

Guney, Esat Serhat

1997-12-01

This study, in its first part, explores the basic parameters of a power market in a utility district. The analysis of this market, naturally, includes a demand and a supply side and the interactions between the two. The econometric model is built to simulate the system of operations of one specific utility company, namely NYSEG (New York State Electric & Gas Corporation), one of seven major Investor-Owned-Utility Companies in New York State. The company serves about 17,000 square miles, or more than one third of the state's land, and one tenth of its population. The study uses time-series data covering 1960 to 1994 for more than fifty variables. The econometric analysis performs both single equation and system estimations and yields short-run vs. long-run and direct vs. total elasticity estimates, which are crucial for any producer in the market place. In the second part of this research, an optimal control procedure is used to evaluate NYSEG's investment policies retrospectively. For control calculations, a simplified linear version of the system of equations is used. Due to its constrained nature (both by being linear and having low degrees of freedom), the optimal control component mainly serves as an educational tool in microeconomic modeling. Lastly, we performed Exploratory Data Analysis for the data we employed. This was done to justify the use of certain parametric test procedures performed in the process basically by checking whether the implicit assumptions of normality and the randomness hold.

Determinants of Debt: An Econometric Analysis Based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances

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Michalis Petrides

2008-03-01

Full Text Available This work is based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances (CySCF and focuses on the investigation of home secured loans and consumer credit card outstanding balances among Cypriot families. The CySCF runs on a triennial basis with the first database created in 1999 (CySCF1999. According to CySCF1999 and CySCF2002, the overall participation in home secured debt among all families declined from 29.95% in 1999 and 29.77% in 2002 to 25.77% in 2005 (CySCF2005. Credit cards were introduced in the early 1980s and grew significantly during the 1990s. The overall percentage of Cypriot households holding credit cards is estimated at 41.7% for 1999, 50% for 2002, and 48% for 2005. This work deals with the econometric analysis of home secured loans and consumer credit card outstanding balances and it provides results based on logit models. The main variables selected for home secured loans are the age, family status, specific attitude toward credit, employment status, and income. The resulting model exhibits a polynomial behaviour of degree two with respect to age. The main variables for consumer credit card balances are the age, education, general attitude, income code, home secured loans and riskiness. Worth noting is the high probability of having credit card balances for those households where the economically dominant unit is of low age with a positive attitude towards credit.

The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

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Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

2010-01-01

This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

2001-01-01

textabstractMarket share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of

Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL; Lantz, Margaret W [ORNL; Hauser, Katie R [ORNL

2014-01-01

Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

Modeling the Construction Sector and Oil Prices toward the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Econometric Approach

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Peter Uchenna Okoye

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This study empirically examined the interrelationship between the construction sector, oil prices, and the actual gross domestic product (GDP in Nigeria. Using annual economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, and econometric statistics, we found that although very strong positive and significant correlations exist between the construction sector output and total GDP output (0.934, the construction sector output and oil prices (0.856, and the total GDP output and oil prices (0.822, these linear relationships only exist for a short time. However, these relationships do not result in any direct causal influence on each other, except for the uni-directional Granger causal relationship that flows from the total GDP output to the construction sector output, which implies that economic activities of other major non-oil sectors stimulate the construction activities in Nigeria. Thus, we argue that neither the construction sector nor the oil prices directly influence the aggregate economy; rather, the other sectors’ activities stimulate the construction sector in Nigeria. Two policy recommendations for achieving the Federal Government’s medium term Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP are suggested: (1 the Nigerian government should de-emphasize overreliance on the oil sector through policy readjustment and (2 an urgent need for economic diversification in Nigeria exists, since we revealed that an increase in the aggregate GDP output is due to the activities of other non-oil sectors.

Use of econometric models to estimate expenditure shares.

Science.gov (United States)

Trogdon, Justin G; Finkelstein, Eric A; Hoerger, Thomas J

2008-08-01

To investigate the use of regression models to calculate disease-specific shares of medical expenditures. Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), 2000-2003. Theoretical investigation and secondary data analysis. Condition files used to define the presence of 10 medical conditions. Incremental effects of conditions on expenditures, expressed as a fraction of total expenditures, cannot generally be interpreted as shares. When the presence of one condition increases treatment costs for another condition, summing condition-specific shares leads to double-counting of expenditures. Condition-specific shares generated from multiplicative models should not be summed. We provide an algorithm that allows estimates based on these models to be interpreted as shares and summed across conditions.

Forecasting models for national economic planning

CERN Document Server

Heesterman, A R G

1972-01-01

This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

DETERMINATION OF THE YIELD OF COFFEE IN THE BASIC UNIT OF COOPERATIVE PRODUCTION (UBPC "LA JUBA" THROUGH ECONOMETRICS TECHNIQUE

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Ramón Rodríguez-Betancourt

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In the Economic Program of the VI Congress of Comunist Party regarding the coffee agroindustry as agreement the following posittions: "To impel the development of the coffee activities to contribute to the gradual recovery of the traditional exportable funds". This sense, the process of planning the coffee harvest suggest the improvement of the fundamental indicators of this process. The coffee estimate is a primary indicator of harvest and other important indicators depend from him, among those the coffee production and the determination of other inputs of harvest. The objective of this work is to use econometrics technique, for the calculation of the coffee estimate in the Arabic variety in the UBPC "La Juba", belonging to the Coffee Company "Segundo Frente" It is demonstrated that using the econometrics technique the results comes closer to the real with more precision that the obtained by the  programmer, in 75 %. In a same way it is obtained as a result, the evaluation of the weight that it have in the yields the productive factors. In this case, when reconciling the analysis cost-benefit, with the study of the regression coefficients it was demonstrated that the most incident factor is the denominated Cultural Attentions. 

An approximate fractional Gaussian noise model with computational cost

KAUST Repository

Sø rbye, Sigrunn H.; Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik; Rue, Haavard

2017-01-01

Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary time series model with long memory properties applied in various fields like econometrics, hydrology and climatology. The computational cost in fitting an fGn model of length $n$ using a likelihood

Quality based payment program and milk quality in dairy cooperatives of Southern Brazil: an econometric analysis

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Bruno Garcia Botaro

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Programs designed to enhance milk quality have been used to motivate dairy farmers to improve the quality of the raw milk they produce. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between a milk quality payment program and four indicative variables of milk quality, by testing bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC, bulk tank total bacterial count (TBC, fat (FAT and protein (PROT percentages over three years in four dairy cooperatives in Southern Brazil. We used a multiple regression econometric model estimated from market data of milk delivered by farmers to the cooperatives. Bulk tank milk samples (n = 19,644 were monthly collected. The data set was analyzed for the effects of seasonality, average daily volume of milk, the award/penalty, producer, and cooperatives on SCC, TBC, FAT and PROT. Results suggested an association between the adoption of a payment program based on milk quality and the reduction of SCC and TBC. Nevertheless, the program seems to have not contributed to increase fat and protein milk percentages. This information may help the dairy industry in developing countries to conceive strategies to enhance overall milk quality.

Econometric modelling of Serbian current account determinants: Jackknife Model Averaging approach

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Petrović Predrag

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This research aims to model Serbian current account determinants for the period Q1 2002 - Q4 2012. Taking into account the majority of relevant determinants, using the Jackknife Model Averaging approach, 48 different models have been estimated, where 1254 equations needed to be estimated and averaged for each of the models. The results of selected representative models indicate moderate persistence of the CA and positive influence of: fiscal balance, oil trade balance, terms of trade, relative income and real effective exchange rates, where we should emphasise: (i a rather strong influence of relative income, (ii the fact that the worsening of oil trade balance results in worsening of other components (probably non-oil trade balance of CA and (iii that the positive influence of terms of trade reveals functionality of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Serbia. On the other hand, negative influence is evident in case of: relative economic growth, gross fixed capital formation, net foreign assets and trade openness. What particularly stands out is the strong effect of relative economic growth that, most likely, reveals high citizens' future income growth expectations, which has negative impact on the CA.

An econometric analysis of electricity demand response to price changes at the intra-day horizon: The case of manufacturing industry in West Denmark

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Niels Framroze Møller

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The use of renewable energy implies a more variable supply of power. Market efficiency may improve if demand can absorb some of this variability by being more flexible, e.g. by responding quickly to changes in the market price of power. To learn about this, in particular, whether demand responds already within the same day, we suggest an econometric model for hourly consumption- and price time series. This allows for multi-level seasonality and that information about day-ahead prices does not arrive every hour but every 24th hour (as a vector of 24 prices. We confront the model with data from the manufacturing industry of West Denmark (2007-2011. The results clearly suggest a lack of response. The policy implication is that relying exclusively on hourly price response by consumers for integrating volatile renewable electricity production is questionable. Either hourly price variation has to increase considerably or demand response technologies be installed.

Young people and alcohol: an econometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lundborg, Petter

2002-12-01

To analyse the determinants of youth drinking behaviour within an economic -theoretical framework. The paper focuses especially on the effects of (a) having parents willing to supply alcohol, (b) living in a single-parent household, (c) having parents who are currently unemployed and (d) having received education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco. A Swedish cross-sectional survey data on 833 individuals aged 12-18 years was used to analyse the effects of the above variables on participation in drinking, frequency of drinking, intensity of drinking and binge drinking. Separate analyses were conducted for beer, wine and spirits. Care was taken in using appropriate econometric methods for the questions posed (negative binomial regression, censored regression and probit regression). Having parents willing to supply alcohol increased frequency (P < 0.05) of beer, wine and spirits consumption, intensity (P < 0.05) of wine, spirits and illicit alcohol consumption, and increased probabilities (P < 0.10) of binge drinking and participation in drinking (P < 0.05). No effects were seen from living in a single-parent household. Having received education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco had a negative association only with intensity (P < 0.10) of beer consumption. Having a father who was currently unemployed was associated with an increased (P < 0.05) probability of binge drinking but a reduced (P < 0.05) frequency of wine consumption. The positive effect of having parents willing to supply alcohol could reflect that these individuals face lower acquisition costs or lower psychological costs in consumption. It could also reflect a price effect, if the individual receives the alcohol free from his or her parents.

The core determinants of health expenditure in the African context: some econometric evidence for policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Murthy, Vasudeva N R; Okunade, Albert A

2009-06-01

This paper, using cross-sectional data from 44 (83% of all) African countries for year 2001, presents econometric model estimates linking real per-capita health expenditure (HEXP) to a host of economic and non-economic factors. The empirical results of OLS and robust LAE estimators indicate that real per-capita GDP (PRGDP) and real per-capita foreign aid (FAID) resources are both core and statistically significant correlates of HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that health care in the African context is technically, a necessity rather than a luxury good (for the OECD countries). This suggests that the goal of health system in Africa is primarily 'physiological' or 'curative' rather than 'caring' or 'pampering'. The positive association of HEXP with FAID hints that external resource inflows targeting health could be instrumental for spurring economic progress in good policy environments. Most African countries until the late 1990s experienced economic and political instability, and faced stringent structural adjustment mandates of the major international financial institution lenders for economic development. Therefore, our finding a positive effect of FAID on HEXP could suggest that external resource inflows softened some of the macroeconomic fiscal deficit impacts on HEXP in the 2000s. Policy implications of country-specific elasticity estimates are given.

Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Zhibiao

2011-06-01

We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

Modeling new product sales; an application of cointegration analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

1994-01-01

textabstractThis paper considers an econometric model for new product sales, which extends the deterministic Gompertz process by allowing the saturation level to depend on forcing variables. It turns out that this model can be written in error correction form. Given that many marketing variables

On the non-convergence of energy intensities: evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

2008-01-01

This paper evaluates convergence of energy intensities for a group of 97 countries in the period 1971-2003. Convergence is tested using a recent method proposed by Pesaran (2007) [M.H. Pesaran. A pair- wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics 138, 312-355.] based on the stochastic convergence criterion. Main advantages of this method are that results do not depend on a benchmark against which convergence is assessed, and that it is more robust. Applications of several unit-root tests as well as a stationarity test uniformly reject the global convergence hypothesis. Locally, for Middle- East, OECD and Europe sub-groups, non-convergence is less strongly rejected. The introduction of possible structural breaks in the analysis only marginally provides more support to the convergence hypothesis. (authors)

Geographical Network Analysis and Spatial Econometrics as Tools to Enhance Our Understanding of Student Migration Patterns and Benefits in the U.S. Higher Education Network

Science.gov (United States)

González Canché, Manuel S.

2018-01-01

This study measures the extent to which student outmigration outside the 4-year sector takes place and posits that the benefits from attracting non-resident students exist regardless of sector of enrollment. The study also provides empirical evidence about the relevance of employing geographical network analysis (GNA) and spatial econometrics in…

Econometric modelling of multiple self-reports of health states: The switch from EQ-5D-3L to EQ-5D-5L in evaluating drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Alava, Mónica; Pudney, Stephen

2017-09-01

EQ-5D is used in cost-effectiveness studies underlying many important health policy decisions. It comprises a survey instrument describing health states across five domains, and a system of utility values for each state. The original 3-level version of EQ-5D is being replaced with a more sensitive 5-level version but the consequences of this change are uncertain. We develop a multi-equation ordinal response model incorporating a copula specification with normal mixture marginals to analyse joint responses to EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L in a survey of people with rheumatic disease, and use it to generate mappings between the alternative descriptive systems. We revisit a major cost-effectiveness study of drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis, mapping the original EQ-5D-3L measure onto a 5L valuation basis. Working within a comprehensive, flexible econometric framework, we find that use of simpler restricted specifications can make very large changes to cost-effectiveness estimates with serious implications for decision-making. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Residential water demand and water consumption: an econometric analysis on municipal panel data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musolesi, Antonio; Nosvelli, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper focuses on residential water demand estimation, a rather neglected issue in the Italian environmental economics literature as compared to other European countries and the USA. This may depend on the difficulties in gathering proper data and, most of all, panel data. In some cases statistical information are not suitably collected, while in other cases legal privacy ties put some obstacles to data set transfer. Our panel data set refers to 102 municipalities in Lombardy (Italy) for the period 1998-2002. When estimating the effect of water price, we control for other relevant variables such as: income, households demographical variables - (age structure, number of component for each family) number of firms in tertiary sector, water system length. In the considered period, the data show both an increase in population (1,5 %) and in the number of water consumers (7%) associated, on aggregate, with a slight reduction in water consumption (-1,1 %). Water demand models are estimated both in a static and in a dynamic framework. In the former, the emphasis is set on the sources of endogeneity in the average price by estimating a system of simultaneous equations and relevant variables for assessing consumer behaviour - such as socio demographic ones - are incorporated in the model. In the latter, econometric methods especially designed for endogeneity in panel data models (Arellano e Bond, 1991), are employed in order to estimate the long run elasticity of water demand with respect to average price. We find evidence both that consumers significantly respond to average price only in the long run with an elasticity of about - 0,3-0,4 and that income and demographic variables are crucial in explaining consumers' behaviour. Furthermore, water consumption presents a strong auto-regressive component, showing the emergence of inertia and path dependency in consumption habits. Such results suggest important implications for water policy planning. On one side demographic

Modelling conditional heteroscedasticity in nonstationary series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cizek, P.; Cizek, P.; Härdle, W.K.; Weron, R.

2011-01-01

A vast amount of econometrical and statistical research deals with modeling financial time series and their volatility, which measures the dispersion of a series at a point in time (i.e., conditional variance). Although financial markets have been experiencing many shorter and longer periods of

Income Distribution Over Educational Levels: A Simple Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinbergen, Jan

An econometric model is formulated that explains income per person in various compartments of the labor market defined by three main levels of education and by education required. The model enables an estimation of the effect of increased access to education on that distribution. The model is based on a production for the economy as a whole; a…

The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Garsztka Przemysław

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

2013-10-22

To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. The UK. The UK adult population. Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

What drives the change in China's energy intensity: Combining decomposition analysis and econometric analysis at the provincial level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Feng; Zheng, Xinye

2012-01-01

We employ decomposition analysis and econometric analysis to investigate the driving forces behind China's changing energy intensity using a provincial-level panel data set for the period from 1995 to 2009. The decomposition analysis indicates that: (a) all of the provinces except for a few experienced efficiency improvement, while around three-fourths of the provinces' economics became more energy intensive or remained unchanged; (b) consequently the efficiency improvement accounts for more than 90% of China's energy intensity change as opposed to the economic structural change. The econometric analysis shows that the rising income plays a significant role in the reduction of energy intensity while the effect of energy price is relatively limited. The result may reflect the urgency of deregulating the price and establishing a market-oriented pricing system in China's energy sector. The implementation of the energy intensity reduction policies in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (FYP) has helped reverse the increasing trend of energy intensity since 2002. Although the Chinese Government intended to change the industry-led economic growth pattern, it seems that most of the policy effects flow through the efficiency improvement as opposed to the economic structure adjustment. More fundamental changes to the economic structure are needed to achieve more sustainable progress in energy intensity reduction. - Highlights: ► We examine the determinants of China's energy intensity change at provincial level. ► Rising income plays a significant role in reducing China's energy intensity. ► Policy effects mainly flow through the efficiency improvement. ► Fundamental structure changes are needed to further reduce China's energy intensity.

Box-Cox Test: the theoretical justification and US-China empirical study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tam Bang Vu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In econometrics, the derivation of a theoretical model leads sometimes to two econometric models, which can be considered justified based on their respective approximation approaches. Hence, the decision of choosing one between the two hinges on applied econometric tools. In this paper, the authors develop a theoretical econometrics consumer maximization model to measure the flow of durables’ expenditures where depreciation is added to former classical econometrics model. The proposed model was formulated in both linear and logarithmic forms. Box-Cox tests were used to choose the most appropriate one among them. The proposed model was then applied to the historical data from the U.S. and China for a comparative study and the results discussed.

[Are there irrationalities in the consumption of anti-obesity drugs in Brazil? A pharmaco-econometric analysis of panel datasets].

Science.gov (United States)

Mota, Daniel Marques; de Oliveira, Márcia Gonçalves; Bovi, Rafael Filiacci; Silva, Sidarta Figueredo; Cunha, Jeane Araújo Fernandes; Divino, José Angelo

2014-05-01

The scope of this study is to analyze the determinants of the use of appetite suppressants (amfepramone, femproporex, mazindol and sibutramine) through the estimation of a dynamic panel dataset model for the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District (DF) in the period from 2009 to 2011. The results show that consumption of appetite suppressants did not follow the geographic distribution of overweight and obese individuals across the capitals and DF. There is a recurrent consumption of appetite inhibitors, in which 79% of the current consumption of these drugs is explained by past consumption. Among the variables that explain the use of inhibitors, the percentage of obese adults, the percentage of adults who habitually consume fruit and vegetables, and the coverage rate of health plans stand out. The pharmaco-econometric analysis suggests that there are problems in the rational use of appetite suppressants in the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District with respect to both the combined consumption of these drugs with other medicines - deemed illegal by the Federal Council of Medicine and ANVISA - and in the therapeutic prescription of these products.

Essays on Imperfect Knowledge Economics, Structural Change, and Persistence in the Cointegrated VAR Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tabor, Morten Nyboe

2014-01-01

conrm the original intuition behind the attempt to combine IKE and the econometric approach based on the cointegrated VAR model, that the parameter-instability of IKE models could potentially be an important source of the persistence found empirically in estimated cointegrated VAR models...

Peer influences on drug self-administration: an econometric analysis in socially housed rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Peitz, Geoffrey W; Strickland, Justin C; Pitts, Elizabeth G; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A

2013-04-01

Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine the social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, under conditions where the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e. quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs.

A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

Science.gov (United States)

Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

1983-01-01

The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

An Econometric Model of Healthcare Demand With Nonlinear Pricing.

Science.gov (United States)

Kunz, Johannes S; Winkelmann, Rainer

2017-06-01

From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model combines a one-time increase in the otherwise constant hazard rate determining the timing of doctor visits with a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the reform effect. An extended version of the model accounts for a mismatch between reporting period and calendar quarter. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we do not find an effect of the co-payment on demand for doctor visits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

后危机时期公允价值计量模式的应用分析%The Application of Fair Value Econometric Mode in Post-Crisis Era

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

吕玮

2013-01-01

In the collation and analysis process of accounting information, accounting measurement is the core of an accounting informa-tion calculation system. The computing method of fair value is more applicable to the modern accounting information system as it reflects a fair principle. As the most related measurement attribute to financial instruments, the superiority of the fair value econometric mode can better define assets and liabilities and raise the relativity of accounting information effectively. It is noticeable that under the context of a market economy, the financial accounting of the fair value econometric model has a few faults reflecting mainly by the poor reliability of in-formation quality, increasing the fluctuation of accounting statements. To solve the problems concerning the application of the fair value e-conometric model, efforts should be put into improving market order, disclosing financial information of fair value, and raising professional quality of accounting personnel and the quality of enterprise accounting statements.%在会计信息的整理和分析过程中，会计计量是会计信息计算系统的核心。公允价值的计算方法更加适合现代会计信息系统，公允价值的计量模式体现了公平原则。公允价值计量模式的优越性更能体现资产负债的定义，能够有效提高财务信息的相关性，公允价值是金融工具最相关的计量属性。需要注意的是在市场经济条件下，公允价值计量模式的会计核算仍然存在不少的缺陷，主要表现是信息质量可靠性差，会增加会计报表的波动性。改进公允价值计量模式使用中的问题，应完善市场秩序，加强对公允价值财务信息的披露，提高会计工作人员的业务素质，提升企业财务报表信息质量。

Adoption and compliance in second-hand smoking bans: a global econometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Perkins, Richard; Neumayer, Eric

2014-10-01

We examine the determinants governing both countries' enactment of smoking bans in public places and their ability to successfully put these bans into effect. Using a large sample (N = 99-184) of low-, middle- and high-income countries, econometric techniques are used to estimate the influence of several variables on cross-national variations in the adoption and compliance of second-hand smoke laws (2010). We find similarities in the determinants of adoption and compliance. Yet more notable are the differences, with several political economy factors which have a statistically significant influence on countries' level of compliance with existing smoke-free laws in public places found not to consistently influence their propensity to adopt bans in the first place. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are that governments are motivated to adopt smoking bans for reasons other than protecting the health of their citizens and that the real costs of smoking bans are predominantly borne at the compliance stage. More effort needs to be made to ensure that governments realize their existing policy commitments through effective enforcement of bans.

Essays on model averaging and political economics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wang, W.

2013-01-01

This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

Catalog of Wargaming and Military Simulation Models.

Science.gov (United States)

1982-05-01

OF MODELS Page U UNICORN - Conventinal/Nuclear Weapon Allocator Model ............ 785 UNREP - Underway Replenishment Model...relationships irn the model to around 4,000. The number of econometric relationships grows geometri- cdlly with the number of sectors. The sector detail...factors 784 11 I I UNICORN - Conventioiali’Nuclear Weapon Al locut( r utoYu IPITlNi NI: Of ice ot the Assi stirt Secretary uf Defense, Proyrdm Analysis

Some Econometric Results for the Blanchard-Watson Bubble Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Soren; Lange, Theis

The purpose of the present paper is to analyse a simple bubble model suggested by Blanchard and Watson. The model is defined by y(t) =s(t)¿y(t-1)+e(t), t=1,…,n, where s(t) is an i.i.d. binary variable with p=P(s(t)=1), independent of e(t) i.i.d. with mean zero and finite variance. We take ¿>1 so...

MODELING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC REGION OF RUSSIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. N. Kikkas

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article describes a model of six econometric equations, designed for the analysis of the sustainability of development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation - Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The article analyzes the spheres of human activity in the Chukchi Autonomous District: social, industrial, natural resources. Each sphere is estimated indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development and defi nes the concept of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the Arctic region. Under the sustainable development of the Arctic region of space refers to such changes in the indices of spheres of human activity in the region, which increase the potential for human development. The numerical value of the potential of human development is estimated Human Development Index. The article describes the methodological principles of constructing a model of six equations econometric analysis of the sustainable development of the Arctic region. Each of the six equations presented in the form of ADL-model, because it allows us to estimate the dependence of ADL values of the spheres of human activity in the region from the current and past values of the series of other indicators. Selected endogenous and exogenous variables for the model. We discuss the algorithm for fi nding the model parameters. On the basis of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug are six coeffi cients of econometric equations. The analysis of the results of the decision model. Methodological principles and results of the decision model can be used to develop strategies for sustainable development of the municipality, a separate Arctic, or a combination of all the Arctic regions of Russia.

The primary demand for beer in the Netherlands; an application of ARMAX model specification

OpenAIRE

Franses, Philip Hans

1991-01-01

textabstractThe central issue in the application of econometric and time series analysis (ETS) to market response models is the model-building process. The author proposes a specification strategy for ETS modeling and applies it to the primary demand for beer in The Netherlands.

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

Science.gov (United States)

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

Intrafirm planning and mathematical modeling of owner's equity in industrial enterprises

Science.gov (United States)

Ponomareva, S. V.; Zheleznova, I. V.

2018-05-01

The article aims to review the different approaches to intrafirm planning of owner's equity in industrial enterprises. Since charter capital, additional capital and reserve capital do not change in the process of enterprise activity, the main interest lies on the field of share repurchases from shareholders and retained earnings within the owner's equity of the enterprise. In order to study the effect of share repurchases on the activities of the enterprise, let us use such mathematical methods as event study and econometric modeling. This article describes the step-by-step algorithm of carrying out event study and justifies the choice of Logit model in econometric analysis. The article represents basic results of conducted regression analysis on the effect of share repurchases on the key financial indicators in industrial enterprises.

Model Estimates Of Gross Domestic Product In Relation to Export And Import Of Fuels, Focused on the Elasticity and Determination Of Directly and Indirectly Associated Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe Săvoiu

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is based on several interrogative assumptions related to the positive impact of the crises and the recession on determinations in the econometric models of Romania’s GDP as a variable dependent in relation to the export and import of fuels. After a short introductory section, which details, in a relative manner, the overall goal and the objectives of the paper, a first section makes use of elasticity and the modern solutions of building the coefficient of elasticity, proposing an original alternative to existing variants, and afterwards the next section builds on these statistical tools in the econometric modeling of Romania’s GDP, starting from the ratios and value indicators and offering a few original models where the export and import of fuels are the key initial explanatory factors. The final remarks reinterpret the role of the energy resources, as well as that of the related flows, in enhancing statistical connections, and especially the role of crises and recessions in validating econometric models, by raising their degree of predictability.

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Timilsina, Govinda R.

2010-01-01

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. [CEPMLP, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN (United Kingdom); Timilsina, Govinda R. [Development Research Group, The World Bank, Washington DC (United States)

2010-04-15

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries. (author)

Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

2011-05-01

This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verkooijen, W.J.H.

1996-01-01

This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

An econometric investigation of impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil carbon and yield risk: A potential for climate change mitigation

OpenAIRE

Kato, Edward; Nkonya, Ephraim; Place, Frank; Mwanjalolo, Majaliwa

2010-01-01

We investigate the impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil carbon stocks and also impacts of soil carbon on the mean and variance of crop production using econometric tools. Using a cross-sectional plot-level dataset collected from three agroecological zones of Uganda with soil carbon measured at a depth of 0 to 15 centimeters, our results have robustly shown that irrigation, fertilizers, improved fallow, crop residues, mulching, and trash lines are positively and significant...

An econometric model of the South African stock market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Moolman

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically.  However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse.  This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination.  The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.

A model for predicting Inactivity in the European Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Themistokles Lazarides

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The paper will addresses the issue of inactivity and will try to detect its causes using econometric models. The Banking sector of Europe has been under transformation or restructuring for almost half a century. Design/methodology/approach – Probit models and descriptive statistics have been used to create a system that predicts inactivity. The data was collected from Bankscope. Findings – The results of the econometric models show that from the six groups of indicators, four have been found to be statistically important (performance, size, ownership, corporate governance. These findings are consistent with the theory. Research limitations/implications – The limitation is that Bankscope does not provide any longitudinal data regarding ownership, management structure and there are some many missing values before 2007 for some of the financial ratios and data. Originality/value – The paper's value and innovation is that it has given a systemic approach to find indicators of inactivity.

Sims, Christopher Albert (born 1942)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boumans, M.; Durlauf, S.N.; Blume, L.E.

2012-01-01

Christopher Sims is one of the leaders in time-series econometrics and empirical macroeconomics and is well known for introducing the VAR approach to econometrics and macroeconomic modelling. Sims' main contribution to empirical macroeconomics was to show how macro-econometric modeling should be

Sims, Christopher Albert (born 1942)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boumans, Marcel

2015-01-01

Christopher Sims is one of the leaders in time-series econometrics and empirical macroeconomics and is well known for introducing the VAR approach to econometrics and macroeconomic modelling. Sims’ main contribution to empirical macroeconomics was to show how macro-econometric modeling should be

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

Science.gov (United States)

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

Space-time modeling of timber prices

Science.gov (United States)

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

2006-01-01

A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

Is the way young people drive a reflection of the way their parents drive? An econometric study of the relation between parental risk and their children's risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Lahatte, Agénor; Le Pape, Marie-Clémence

2008-06-01

This article aims to investigate parental influence on high-risk behavior by young people. Although research on the topic of perception of risk demonstrates that it is socially constructed, the role of the family in this construction has rarely been studied. Using a French national survey of more than 1,200 young drivers between the ages of 18 and 25, and their parents, we attempt to understand the transmission of risk within families. Our econometric study shows that parents influence both the practices and representations of their children. When parental norms and values are transmitted, they are by no means accepted in a wholly passive way. Indeed, the parental model is in competition with other models that originate from both inside the family (brothers and sisters) and outside it (instructors). Furthermore, parental influence decreases over time as young people become more experienced drivers and construct their own identity with regard to risk.

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

Science.gov (United States)

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

EU practices of education staff planning (Application of econometric models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mr.Sc. Sahit Surdulli

2011-12-01

The research results indicated that there is great interdependence between the economic growth norm in the country in one hand and the attained educational results on the economy of knowledge on the other hand. The interdependence between the number of workers and their qualification structure and the results attained in the education field in models, was expressed through equations. The Empiriev model as a concrete model for planning the necessary education cadre for certain levels of economic development is based on the basic model of Tinbergen – Bos. The coefficient values of regression reflect the form and intensity of interdependency between the number of students per million inhabitants and the national income per capita.

Inequality, race, and mortality in U.S. cities: a political and econometric review of Deaton and Lubotsky (56:6, 1139-1153, 2003).

Science.gov (United States)

Ash, Michael; Robinson, Dean E

2009-06-01

Our replication of Deaton and Lubotsky's [(2003). Mortality, inequality and race in American cities and states. Social Science & Medicine, 56.] study "Mortality, Inequality and Race in American Cities and States" identifies a coding error in the econometric analysis in the original paper. Correcting the error changes the basic results of the paper with respect to inequality and mortality in a relevant and substantive way. We also propose an alternative interpretation of the other main result of the paper regarding racial composition and mortality.

Identifiability in stochastic models

CERN Document Server

1992-01-01

The problem of identifiability is basic to all statistical methods and data analysis, occurring in such diverse areas as Reliability Theory, Survival Analysis, and Econometrics, where stochastic modeling is widely used. Mathematics dealing with identifiability per se is closely related to the so-called branch of ""characterization problems"" in Probability Theory. This book brings together relevant material on identifiability as it occurs in these diverse fields.

Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

Science.gov (United States)

Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

2008-06-01

Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

A spatial Mankiw-Romer-Weil model: Theory and evidence

OpenAIRE

Fischer, Manfred M.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system ...

Self-insurance and worksite alcohol programs: an econometric analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenkel, D S

1997-03-01

The worksite is an important point of access for alcohol treatment and prevention, but not all firms are likely to find offering alcohol programs profitable. This study attempts to identify at a conceptual and empirical level factors that are important determinants of the profitability of worksite alcohol programs. A central question considered in the empirical analysis is whether firms' decisions about worksite alcohol programs are related to how employee group health insurance is provided. The data used are from the 1992 National Survey of Worksite Health Promotion Activities (N = 1,389-1,412). The econometric analysis focuses on measures of whether the surveyed firms offer Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs), individual counseling, group classes and resource materials regarding alcohol and other substance abuse. Holding other factors constant, the probability that a self-insured firm offers an EAP is estimated to be 59%, compared to 51% for a firm that purchases market group health insurance for its employees. Unionized worksites and larger worksites are also found to be more likely to offer worksite alcohol programs, compared to nonunionized smaller worksites. Worksites with younger work-forces are less likely than those with older employees to offer alcohol programs. The empirical results are consistent with the conceptual framework from labor economics, since self-insurance is expected to increase firms' demand for worksite alcohol programs while large worksite is expected to reduce the average program cost. The role of union status and workforce age suggests it is important to consider workers' preferences for the programs as fringe benefits. The results also suggest that the national trend towards self-insurance may be leading to more prevention and treatment of worker alcohol-related problems.

Improved Testing of Distributed Lag Model in Presence of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The finite distributed lag models (DLM) are often used in econometrics and statistics. Application of the ordinary least square (OLS) directly on the DLM for estimation may have serious problems. To overcome these problems, some alternative estimation procedures are available in the literature. One popular method to ...

THE ECONOMETRICS OF THE FORECASTING OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES, A MAIN COMPONENT OF THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The paper intends to emphasise the importance of budget resources forecasting for long periods of time, within thefinancial management. An as accurate as possible forecasting of the volume of financial resources will represent the basis forthe future projections of the expenditure of local communities, as they are regulated by law, knowing that one of the principlesrepresenting the basis of budget making is that of the balanced budget. To the same extent, the volume of the budget liquiditieswill depend on the rigorousness of the design of the volume of financial resources.. Beyond the abstract character of themathematic calculus made by specialists in econometrics, the financial manager is also interested to know the forecastingtechniques so that he/she can draw up the income and expenditure budget, the basis for the implementation of the economicsocialdevelopment strategies of the local communities. The financial management remains a fundamental component of thepublic management through the theoretical-methodological arsenal made available for the loan officer.

Consumers and experts. An econometric analysis of the demand for water heaters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Soest, A.; Bartels, R.; Fiebig, D.G.

2003-01-01

Consumers can accumulate product information on the basis of a combination of searching, product advertising and expert advice. Examples of experts who provide product information include doctors advising patients on treatments, motor mechanics diagnosing car problems and recommending repairs, accountants recommending investment strategies, and plumbers making recommendations on alternative water heaters. In each of these examples, the transactions involve the sale of goods and services where the seller is at the same time an expert providing advice on the amount and type of product or service to be purchased. In the case of water heaters, the plumber advising a consumer on their choice of water heater will most likely also install the appliance. Because of the information asymmetry there is potentially a strategic element in the transmission of information from expert to consumer. This paper reports on an econometric investigation of the factors that determine the choices made by consumers and the recommendations made by plumbers and the extent to which plumbers act in the best interests of their customers. The empirical work is made possible by the availability of stated preference data generated by designed experiments involving separate samples of Australian consumers and plumbers. We find some evidence that plumbers have higher preferences than consumers for heater characteristics that increase their profit margin

Heterogeneous autoregressive model with structural break using nearest neighbor truncation volatility estimators for DAX.

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Wen Cheong; Lee, Min Cherng; Yap, Grace Lee Ching

2016-01-01

High frequency financial data modelling has become one of the important research areas in the field of financial econometrics. However, the possible structural break in volatile financial time series often trigger inconsistency issue in volatility estimation. In this study, we propose a structural break heavy-tailed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) volatility econometric model with the enhancement of jump-robust estimators. The breakpoints in the volatility are captured by dummy variables after the detection by Bai-Perron sequential multi breakpoints procedure. In order to further deal with possible abrupt jump in the volatility, the jump-robust volatility estimators are composed by using the nearest neighbor truncation approach, namely the minimum and median realized volatility. Under the structural break improvements in both the models and volatility estimators, the empirical findings show that the modified HAR model provides the best performing in-sample and out-of-sample forecast evaluations as compared with the standard HAR models. Accurate volatility forecasts have direct influential to the application of risk management and investment portfolio analysis.

University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

Science.gov (United States)

Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

2011-01-01

Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

Econometric Models of Education, Some Applications. Education and Development, Technical Reports.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinbergen, Jan; And Others

This report contains five papers which describe mathematical models of the educational system as it relates to economic growth. Experimental applications of the models to particular educational systems are discussed. Three papers, by L. J. Emmerij, J. Blum, and G. Williams, discuss planning models for the calculation of educational requirements…

Agent-Based Model of Price Competition and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks

OpenAIRE

Lei Zhang; David Levinson; Shanjiang Zhu

2007-01-01

Using consistent agent-based techniques, this research models the decision-making processes of users and infrastructure owner/operators to explore the welfare consequence of price competition, capacity choice, and product differentiation on congested transportation networks. Component models include: (1) An agent-based travel demand model wherein each traveler has learning capabilities and unique characteristics (e.g. value of time); (2) Econometric facility provision cost models; and (3) Rep...

General equilibrium basic needs policy model, (updating part).

OpenAIRE

Kouwenaar A

1985-01-01

ILO pub-WEP pub-PREALC pub. Working paper, econometric model for the assessment of structural change affecting development planning for basic needs satisfaction in Ecuador - considers population growth, family size (households), labour force participation, labour supply, wages, income distribution, profit rates, capital ownership, etc.; examines nutrition, education and health as factors influencing productivity. Diagram, graph, references, statistical tables.

State Space Modeling Using SAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rajesh Selukar

2011-05-01

Full Text Available This article provides a brief introduction to the state space modeling capabilities in SAS, a well-known statistical software system. SAS provides state space modeling in a few different settings. SAS/ETS, the econometric and time series analysis module of the SAS system, contains many procedures that use state space models to analyze univariate and multivariate time series data. In addition, SAS/IML, an interactive matrix language in the SAS system, provides Kalman filtering and smoothing routines for stationary and nonstationary state space models. SAS/IML also provides support for linear algebra and nonlinear function optimization, which makes it a convenient environment for general-purpose state space modeling.

The relationship of sugar to population-level diabetes prevalence: an econometric analysis of repeated cross-sectional data.

Science.gov (United States)

Basu, Sanjay; Yoffe, Paula; Hills, Nancy; Lustig, Robert H

2013-01-01

While experimental and observational studies suggest that sugar intake is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, independent of its role in obesity, it is unclear whether alterations in sugar intake can account for differences in diabetes prevalence among overall populations. Using econometric models of repeated cross-sectional data on diabetes and nutritional components of food from 175 countries, we found that every 150 kcal/person/day increase in sugar availability (about one can of soda/day) was associated with increased diabetes prevalence by 1.1% (p <0.001) after testing for potential selection biases and controlling for other food types (including fibers, meats, fruits, oils, cereals), total calories, overweight and obesity, period-effects, and several socioeconomic variables such as aging, urbanization and income. No other food types yielded significant individual associations with diabetes prevalence after controlling for obesity and other confounders. The impact of sugar on diabetes was independent of sedentary behavior and alcohol use, and the effect was modified but not confounded by obesity or overweight. Duration and degree of sugar exposure correlated significantly with diabetes prevalence in a dose-dependent manner, while declines in sugar exposure correlated with significant subsequent declines in diabetes rates independently of other socioeconomic, dietary and obesity prevalence changes. Differences in sugar availability statistically explain variations in diabetes prevalence rates at a population level that are not explained by physical activity, overweight or obesity.

On the economic benefit of utility based estimation of a volatility model

OpenAIRE

Adam Clements; Annastiina Silvennoinen

2009-01-01

Forecasts of asset return volatility are necessary for many financial applications, including portfolio allocation. Traditionally, the parameters of econometric models used to generate volatility forecasts are estimated in a statistical setting and subsequently used in an economic setting such as portfolio allocation. Differences in the criteria under which the model is estimated and applied may inhibit reduce the overall economic benefit of a model in the context of portfolio allocation. Thi...

Modelling the rebound effect with network theory: An insight into the European freight transport sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruzzenenti, Franco; Basosi, Riccardo

2017-01-01

This paper presents a two pronged approach to the study of the rebound effect, with the aim of assessing the magnitude of the effect in the European freight transport sector and proposing a new modelling framework based on network theory. The (direct) rebound effect is assessed with: 1) an econometric regression; 2) a model based on network theory and statistical mechanics. According to the econometric model the European road freight transport sector undergone a negative rebound between of −74% between 1998 and 2007 and −146% between 1998 and 2011. The network analysis delivers an estimation of network rebound ranging between −29.37% and −7.25. Overall, these results indicate that energy efficiency in Europe, between 1998 and 2011, succeed in reducing the energy consumptions amid an increasing demand for transports. Results on rebound estimation depend on the decision of using GDP as an exogenous variable, an assumption that leaves questions open about the causality chain between growth and transports. Furthermore, the network analysis highlights a structural change –a migration of production factors offshore, that might partially explain this negative effect. In this view, rebound effect analysis on a local or regional scale is becoming more and more uncertain in a globally interconnected economic context. - Highlights: • An evaluation of direct rebound effect in the freight transports with an econometric model is performed. • A new concept of rebound effect based on network theory is presented and implemented. • A comparative analysis of the two different approaches is developed. • Both models indicate that the there was a negative rebound effect in European freight transports. • Network theory proved to be a promising approach to energy systems and rebound effect modelling.

A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

OpenAIRE

Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

2004-01-01

The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

Models of the oil market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

1991-01-01

Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; McNamara, Laura A.

2004-09-01

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

The Impact of the 2008 Credit Crisis on the Sugarcane Sector: A Study Econometric

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávia de Castro Camioto

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The sugarcane industry contributes approximately 2% to the Brazilian GDP, and generates more than 600,000 jobs in nearly a thousand cities. This study aims to determine the main variables that affect the growth of the Brazilian sugarcane sector. For this, econometric techniques were used to quantify the impact of each variable studied in the growth of Gross Domestic Product in this sector from 1980 to 2013. A specific analysis of the impact of the 2008 credit crisis on growth this sector was also performed. The results showed that the variables that impact the growth of Brazilian sugarcane industry are: exchange rate, fuel alcohol consumption, and the average price of a barrel of petroleum. Moreover, it was found that the 2008 crisis contributed negatively to the GDP of this sector. It was possible to conclude that the crisis in this sector had its origin in the optimism in this sector, due to the growth of the sector in 2006 and the global factors in 2008, which was reflected in variables such as exchange rate and the consumption of alcohol fuel, that negatively impacted the sector.

Modeling and Forecasting Persistent Financial Durations

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Žikeš, F.; Baruník, Jozef; Shenai, N.

2017-01-01

Roč. 36, č. 10 (2017), s. 1081-1110 ISSN 0747-4938 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : price durations * long memory * multifractal models * realized volatility * Whittle estimation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 1.333, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434201.pdf

Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, Adam D M; Mytton, Oliver T; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

2013-10-31

To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. United Kingdom. Adults aged 16 and over. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

A review of the modelling of water values in different use sectors in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this article several economic studies undertaken to assist with the implementation of the National Water Act (NWA) No. 36 of 1998 are reviewed. In these studies the following procedures were applied to model water use: operational research, econometric analysis, input/output analysis, willingness to pay and the ...

Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Białowolski

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators (BACE is employed. The models are atheoretical (i.e. they do not reflect causal relationships postulated by the macroeconomic theory and the role of regressors is played by business and consumer tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the variables of interest (GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the four forthcoming quarters without the need to make any additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period.  Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators is a method allowing for full and controlled overview of all econometric models which can be obtained out of a particular set of regressors. In this paper authors describe the method of generating a family of econometric models and the procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out-of-sample forecasts of main economic variables for the quarters of 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts implies that there is still a need to search for new solutions in the atheoretical modelling.

Estimation of zero-intelligence models by L1 data

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šmíd, Martin

2016-01-01

Roč. 16, č. 9 (2016), s. 1423-1444 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Limit Order Market * Stochastic Models * Econometric Methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.960, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/smid-0458944.pdf

Modeling Financial Liquidity Of Construction Companies Using Error Correction Mechanism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz Stryjewski

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Financial liquidity is one of the most important economic categories in the functioning of the company. There are many methods of assessment of the company in this field, ranging from ratio analysis, to advanced models of financial flows. In this paper was presented econometric model of financial income, which was used to analyze the liquidity of the three construction companies. This analysis was made on the background of methods indicator.

Refining cost-effectiveness analyses using the net benefit approach and econometric methods: an example from a trial of anti-depressant treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabes-Figuera, Ramon; McCrone, Paul; Kendricks, Antony

2013-04-01

Economic evaluation analyses can be enhanced by employing regression methods, allowing for the identification of important sub-groups and to adjust for imperfect randomisation in clinical trials or to analyse non-randomised data. To explore the benefits of combining regression techniques and the standard Bayesian approach to refine cost-effectiveness analyses using data from randomised clinical trials. Data from a randomised trial of anti-depressant treatment were analysed and a regression model was used to explore the factors that have an impact on the net benefit (NB) statistic with the aim of using these findings to adjust the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Exploratory sub-samples' analyses were carried out to explore possible differences in cost-effectiveness. Results The analysis found that having suffered a previous similar depression is strongly correlated with a lower NB, independent of the outcome measure or follow-up point. In patients with previous similar depression, adding an selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) to supportive care for mild-to-moderate depression is probably cost-effective at the level used by the English National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence to make recommendations. This analysis highlights the need for incorporation of econometric methods into cost-effectiveness analyses using the NB approach.

An economic model for seaborne oil trade

OpenAIRE

Hong, Kian-Wah

1996-01-01

This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

Networks and Innovation: An Economic Model for European Regions (2002-2006)

OpenAIRE

Alfonso Badiola; Pedro Casares-Hontañón; Pablo Coto-Millán; Miguel Ángel Pesquera

2012-01-01

This research provides a new theoretical approach to innovation. The work also provides data processed in recent years (2002-2006) to regions of European regions, providing relevant empirical evidence on the relationship between Human Capital, Technological Capital, Innovation Capital, Network Capital and Innovation. In econometric modeling is considered especially for the regions of the European Union.

Liquidity and liquidity cost vs. bank profitability. A model analysis attempt

OpenAIRE

Boguslaw Guzik

2008-01-01

The author suggests a “model” of relations between liquidity, costs of liquidity and basic or empirical profitability. The first part of the article present the idea of the model analysis. The author makes an effort to explain the frequent empirical paradox – when an increase of liquidity is accompanied by an increase in profitability. The second part present the model analysis in more detail. The author refers to the economic and econometrical model formation. He suggests using the bank prof...

Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ntantamis, Christos

Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

Science.gov (United States)

Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

2013-01-01

The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wadud, Zia; Dey, Himadri S.; Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I.

2011-01-01

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: → Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. → Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. → Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. → Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. → Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wadud, Zia, E-mail: ziawadud@yahoo.com [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh); Dey, Himadri S. [University of Notre Dame (United States); Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor; Khan, Shahidul I. [Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (Bangladesh)

2011-11-15

Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity - around 1.5 - for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country. - Highlights: > Natural gas demand is modeled using dynamic econometric methods, first of its kind in Bangladesh. > Income elasticity for aggregate natural gas demand in Bangladesh is large-around 1.5. > Demand is price insensitive, indicating too low prices and/or presence of large suppressed demand. > Demand forecasts reveal large divergence from previous estimates, which is important for planning. > Attempts to model demand for end-use sectors were successful only for the industrial sector.

Forecasted electric power demands for the Delmarva Power and Light Company. Volume 1 and Volume 2. Documentation manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Estomin, S.L.; Beach, J.E.

1990-10-01

The two-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak load and electric power demands for the Delmarva Power and Light Company (DP ampersand L) through the year 2008. Separate sets of models were estimated for the three jurisdictions served by DP ampersand L: Delaware, Maryland and Virginia. For both Delaware and Maryland, econometric equations were estimated for residential, commercial, industrial, and streetlighting sales. For Virginia, equations were estimated for residential, commercial plus industrial, and streetlighting sales; separate industrial and commercial equations were not estimated for Virginia due to the relatively small size of DP ampersand L's Virginia Industrial load. Wholesale sales were econometrically estimated for the DP ampersand L system as a whole. In addition to the energy sales models, an econometric model of annual (summer) peak demand was estimated for the Company

Econometrics versus the Bookmakers. An econometric approach to sports betting

OpenAIRE

Hansen, Sindre Michael

2016-01-01

Bruk av økonometri for å estimere sannsynligheter for ulike utfall i fotballkamper, over en Premier League sesong. Lager en modell basert på Bradley-Terry. Resultatet av estimeringene testes deretter ved å sammenligne med historisk odds satt av ulike spilltilbydere, og anvendes for hypotetiske innsatser. Modellen viser profitt.

Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

OpenAIRE

Guo, Zi-Yi

2017-01-01

One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

OpenAIRE

Song, H; Li, G

2008-01-01

This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there i...

European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

1984-01-01

This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Horváth, Roman

2011-01-01

Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673 ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

VEKTOR AUTO-REGRESI:CATATAN HISTORIS DAN PENGEMBANGAN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohtar Rasyid

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of econometric time-series modeling from early development to contemporary issues. Economic structural model begins with the Keynesian macro model with a simple equation system to a system with hundreds of equations. One interesting issue in the econometric modeling of time series stationarity issue is the emergence of the new standards in advanced econometric analysis. The model system with a new approach known as VAR with emphasis in the data: let the data speak (let's Data talk. This model has become the new standard with variations VECM and several derivative models. This paper concludes with a brief discussion of new approaches to discuss the adjustments that are non-linear.

Analysis of Air Activity Concentration Data Collected in the Kanto Plain, Japan, following the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

Science.gov (United States)

2015-06-09

1981. “Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification,” J. Econometrics , 16, 121-130. Hanke, J.E. and Wichern...ABSTRACT A novel use of econometric analysis was applied for the comparison of time series of air sampling data considered for use in dose...analysis, statistical; emissions, atmospheric; radioactivity, airborne 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT U 18. NUMBER

EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dezsi Eva

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

The impact of the British model on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon György Jr.

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China – An econometric approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

2016-01-01

The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. - Highlights: • We examine the impacts of the surface ozone exposure on winter wheat yield in China. • An econometric method is used to measure the ozone impacts. • The results conclude that surface ozone is harmful to winter wheat yield in China. • We confirm that stress conditions such as drought and air particles can mitigate the adverse effect of ozone. - Surface ozone pollution is harmful to winter wheat yield in China by considering socio-economic determinants, weather, and other stress conditions like drought and air particles.

DETEKSI DINI KRISIS PERBANKAN INDONESIA: IDENTIFIKASI VARIABEL MAKRO DENGAN MODEL LOGIT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shanty Oktavilia

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Indonesia suffered from banking crisis for several times. It was the effect of the worst crisis occurredin 1997. Actually, Bath Thailand which plunged into 27,8% at the third quarter of the year 1997 was thebeginning problem that caused Asia currency crisis. This study analyzes the influence of macro indicatoras an early warning system by using logit econometrics model for predicting the possibilities of bankingcrisis that may occur in Indonesia.Kewords: Banking Crisis, macro economic indicator, EWS-logit model

TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE AND GDP /JIPP CURVE/

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Kaneva

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The relationship between telecommunications infrastructure and economic activity is under discussion in many scientific papers. Most of the authors use for research and analysis the Jipp curve. A lot of doubts about the correctness of the Jipp curve appear in terms of applying econometric models. The aim of this study is a review of the Jipp curve, refining the possibility of its application in modern conditions. The methodology used in the study is based on dynamic econometric models, including tests for nonstationarity and tests for causality. The focus of this study is directed to methodological problems in measuring the local density types of telecommunication networks. This study offers a specific methodology for assessing the Jipp law, through VAR-approach and Granger causality tests. It is proved that mechanical substitution of momentary aggregated variables (such as the number of subscribers of a telecommunication network at the end of the year and periodically aggregated variables (such as GDP per capita in the Jipp�s curve is methodologically wrong. Researchers have to reconsider the relationship set in the Jipp�s curve by including additional variables that characterize the Telecommunications sector and the economic activity in a particular country within a specified time period. GDP per capita should not be regarded as a single factor for the local density of telecommunications infrastructure. New econometric models studying the relationship between the investments in telecommunications infrastructure and economic development may be not only linear regression models, but also other econometric models. New econometric models should be proposed after testing and validating with sound economic theory and econometric methodology.

A MODEL FOR THE PALM OIL MARKET IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRICS APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry Egwuma

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to formulate and estimate a model for the palm oil market in Nigeria with a view to identifying principal factors that shape the Nigerian palm oil industry. Four structural equation models comprising palm oil production, import demand, domestic demand and producer price have been estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL cointegration approach over the 1970 to 2011 period. The results reveal that significant factors that influence the Nigerian palm oil industry include the own price, technological improvements, and income level. Government expenditure on agricultural development is also an important determinant, which underscores the need for government support in agriculture. Our model provides a useful framework for analyzing the effects of changes in major exogenous variables such as income or import tariff on the production, demand, and price of palm oil.

An economic framework for forecasting land-use and ecosystem change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, David J.

2010-01-01

This paper develops a joint econometric-simulation framework to forecast detailed empirical distributions of the spatial pattern of land-use and ecosystem change. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to examine the performance of the parcel-scale econometric and simulation models, and the importance of multiple forecasting challenges is assessed. The econometric-simulation method is integrated with an ecological model to generate forecasts of the probability of localized extinctions of an amphibian species. The paper demonstrates the potential of integrating economic and ecological models to generate ecological forecasts in the presence of alternative market conditions and land-use policy constraints. (author)

EVOLUTION OF THEORIES AND EMPIRICAL MODELS OF A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, SCIENCE AND INNOVATIONS (PART I

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaneva M. A.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This article is a first chapter of an analytical review of existing theoretical models of a relationship between economic growth / GRP and indicators of scientific development and innovation activities, as well as empirical approaches to testing this relationship. Aim of the paper is a systematization of existing approaches to modeling of economic growth geared by science and innovations. The novelty of the current review lies in the authors’ criteria of interconnectedness of theoretical and empirical studies in the systematization of a wide range of publications presented in a final table-scheme. In the first part of the article the authors discuss evolution of theoretical approaches, while the second chapter presents a time gap between theories and their empirical verification caused by the level of development of quantitative instruments such as econometric models. The results of this study can be used by researchers and graduate students for familiarization with current scientific approaches that manifest progress from theory to empirical verification of a relationship «economic growth-innovations» for improvement of different types of models in spatial econometrics. To apply these models to management practices the presented review could be supplemented with new criteria for classification of knowledge production functions and other theories about effect of science on economic growth.

How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karanfil, Fatih

2009-01-01

During the last three decades, following closely the developments in econometric theory, energy and environmental economists have empirically examined the energy-income nexus for different countries and time periods. However, today, in spite of the growing interest in this area, the state of knowledge is still controversial and unsettled. This viewpoint paper attempts to highlight some of the issues related to the existing literature on the long-run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth. In particular, it discusses how it is difficult to make policy recommendations on the basis of inconsistent and conflicting results in the published literature on the subject. In order to do so, the paper first illustrates the increasing trend in the number of studies published in this area providing also a brief comparison of the conventional methods used to estimate the energy-income nexus. It then deals with new directions and different viewpoints on the same issue

International oil and natural gas demand projections: an econometric model for 2008-2030; Projecao das demandas mundiais de petroleo e de gas natural: aplicacao de um modelo agregado para o periodo 2008-2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Machado, Giovani; Aragao, Amanda; Valle, Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2008-07-01

This study forecasts the world oil and gas demands for 2008-2030 by applying econometric formulations. The basic variables are world GDP and Brent price. The forecast assumptions are: sound world economic growth remains, despite falling rates during the period; Brent prices continue high, but in a lower level, in 2006 constant prices, in harmony with Energy Information Administration reference scenario. Findings show that, should assumptions prove to be correct, world oil and gas demands will reach 118 million bbl/d and 5 trillion cubic meters in 2030, respectively. In other words, world oil demand will grow at 1.4% per year, while world gas demand will increase at 2.5% per year. Although such figures are similar to those from other institutions (EIA, IEA and OPEC), structural changes in oil and gas markets, catalyzed by high oil prices and energy and environmental policies, may reduce forecast strength of the specifications proposed. (author)

Estimating Multivariate Exponentail-Affine Term Structure Models from Coupon Bound Prices using Nonlinear Filtering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik

2000-01-01

An econometric analysis of continuous-timemodels of the term structure of interest rates is presented. A panel of coupon bond prices with different maturities is used to estimate the embedded parameters of a continuous-discrete state space model of unobserved state variables: the spot interest rate...... noise term should account for model errors. A nonlinear filtering method is used to compute estimates of the state variables, and the model parameters are estimated by a quasimaximum likelihood method provided that some assumptions are imposed on the model residuals. Both Monte Carlo simulation results...

Direct estimates of unemployment rate and capacity utilization in macroeconometric models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klein, L R [Univ. of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; Su, V

1979-10-01

The problem of measuring resource-capacity utilization as a factor in overall economic efficiency is examined, and a tentative solution is offered. A macro-econometric model is applied to the aggregate production function by linking unemployment rate and capacity utilization rate. Partial- and full-model simulations use Wharton indices as a filter and produce direct estimates of unemployment rates. The simulation paths of durable-goods industries, which are more capital-intensive, are found to be more sensitive to business cycles than the nondurable-goods industries. 11 references.

USE OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL IN MACRO-ECONOMICAL ANALYSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin ANGHELACHE

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The article presents the fundamental aspects of the linear regression, as a toolbox which can be used in macroeconomic analyses. The article describes the estimation of the parameters, the statistical tests used, the homoscesasticity and heteroskedasticity. The use of econometrics instrument in macroeconomics is an important factor that guarantees the quality of the models, analyses, results and possible interpretation that can be drawn at this level.

A predictive model for e-commerce consumer expenditure in EC countries

OpenAIRE

Kovačić, Zlatko

2004-01-01

Describing and predicting consumer expenditure on a country or cross-national level has a long tradition in theoretical and applied economics and econometrics. This paper is a first attempt in describing aggregate eCommerce consumer expenditure among European Commission (EC) countries. After brief introduction of possible theoretical models which explain the variation in eCommerce consumer expenditure among observed countries, a list of important predictors has been discussed. The results gen...

An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

Science.gov (United States)

Slade, M.E.

1980-01-01

In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

Forecasted electric power demands for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company. Volume 1 and Volume 2. Documentation manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Estomin, S.L.; Beach, J.E.; Goldsmith, J.V.

1991-05-01

The two-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak load and electric power demand for the Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BG ampersand E) through the year 2009. Separate energy sales models were estimated for residential sales in Baltimore City, residential sales in the BG ampersand E service area excluding Baltimore City, commercial sales, industrial sales, streetlighting sales, and Company use plus losses. Econometric equations were also estimated for electric space heating and air conditioning saturation in Baltimore City and in the remainder of the BG ampersand E service territory. In addition to the energy sales models and the electric space conditioning saturation models, econometric models of summer and winter peak demand on the BG ampersand E system were estimated

Is Hosting the Games Enough to Win? A predictive economic model of medal wins at 2014 Winter Olympics

OpenAIRE

Wladimir Andreff

2012-01-01

An econometric model which has first been estimated on medal wins at Summer Olympics and has predicted 88% of medal distribution at Beijing Games 2008, is revisited for Winter Olympics. After changing some variables to take into account the winter sports specificity, the model is estimated again on all Winter Games since 1964.Then it is used to predict (forecast) the medal distribution per country at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.

Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

Science.gov (United States)

Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

2017-12-01

The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Burtnyak

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

Provincial-level spatial statistical modelling of the change in per capita disposable Family Income in Spain, 1975-1983

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. Griffith

1998-02-01

Full Text Available Computational simplifications for a space-time autoregressive response model specification are explored for the change in Spain's per capita disposable family income between 1975 and 1983. The geographic resolution for this analysis is the provincial partitioning of part of the Iberian peninsula into Spain's 47 coterminous provinces coupled with its 3 island clusters provinces. In keeping with the Paelinckian tradition of spatial econometrics, exploration focuses on both new spatial econometric estimators and model specifications that emphasize the capturing of spatial dependency effects in the mean response term. One goal of this analysis is to differentiate between spatial, temporal, and space-time interaction information contained in the per capita disposable family income data. A second objective of the application is to illustrate the utility of extending computational simplifications from the spatial to the space-time domain. And a third purpose is to gain some substantive insights into the economic development of one country in a changing Europe. A serendipitous outcome of this investigation is a detailed analysis of locational information latent in Spain's regionally disaggregated per capita disposable family income.

Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Gang; Zhang, Yue-Jun

2014-01-01

Whether China’s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the role of China’s crude oil net imports in Brent price changes from October 2005 to November 2013 based on an econometric analysis. The results indicate that, during the sample period, China’s crude oil imports do not significantly affect Brent price changes, no matter in the long run or short run. Therefore, the blame for China’s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence. Also, there exists significant uni-directional causality running from the Brent price to China's crude oil imports at the 5% level. Besides, the response of the Brent price to China's crude oil imports is found positive but slight, and the Brent price responds more significantly to US dollar exchange rate and OECD commercial inventory than to China’s crude oil imports in the short run. Finally, the contribution of China's crude oil imports to Brent price movement is about 10%, which is less than that of US dollar exchange rate but larger than that of Indian crude oil imports or OECD commercial inventory. - Highlights: • The paper detects the role of China’s crude oil imports in Brent oil price changes. • China’s crude imports do not matter for oil prices in the long run or short run. • The blame for China’s crude imports on oil price changes has no solid evidence. • Significant causality runs from Brent prices to China's crude oil net imports. • China's crude imports contribute less to Brent prices than US dollar exchange rate

Forecast model of safety economy contribution rate of China

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LIU Li-jun; SHI Shi-liang

2005-01-01

It is the rational and exact computation of the safety economy contribution rate that has the far-reaching realistic meaning to the improvement of society cognition to safety and the investment to the nation safety and the national macro-safety decision-makings. The accurate function between safety inputs and outputs was obtained through a founded econometric model. Then the forecasted safety economy contribution rate is 3.01% and the forecasted ratio between safety inputs and outputs is 1:1.81 in China in 2005. And the model accords with the practice of China and the results are satisfying.

Application of modern tests for stationarity to single-trial MEG data: transferring powerful statistical tools from econometrics to neuroscience.

Science.gov (United States)

Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech

2011-10-01

Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.

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International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Results 441 - 450 of 9581 ... African Regional Workshop on Compensation for Ecosystem ... ECONOMETRIC MODELS ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS POLICY ... Poverty impacts of the Doha Round in Cameroon : the role of tax policy ... (obstetric care, tuberculosis treatment and antiretroviral treatment for HIV-positive people), ...

Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures : A dynamic spatial panel approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yesilyurt, M. Ensar; Elhorst, J. Paul

Using the latest spatial econometric techniques and data pertaining to 144 countries over the period 1993-2007, this article tests and compares four frequently used spatial econometric models and eight matrices describing the mutual relationships among the countries, all within a common framework,

Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures : A dynamic spatial panel approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yesilyurt, M. Ensar; Elhorst, J. Paul

2017-01-01

Using the latest spatial econometric techniques and data pertaining to 144 countries over the period 1993-2007, this article tests and compares four frequently used spatial econometric models and eight matrices describing the mutual relationships among the countries, all within a common framework,

Spatial econometrics using microdata

CERN Document Server

Dubé, Jean

2014-01-01

This book provides an introduction to spatial analyses concerning disaggregated (or micro) spatial data.Particular emphasis is put on spatial data compilation and the structuring of the connections between the observations. Descriptive analysis methods of spatial data are presented in order to identify and measure the spatial, global and local dependency.The authors then focus on autoregressive spatial models, to control the problem of spatial dependency between the residues of a basic linear statistical model, thereby contravening one of the basic hypotheses of the ordinary least squares appr

THE MISHKIN TEST: AN ANALYSIS OF MODEL EXTENSIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diana MURESAN

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews empirical research that apply Mishkin test for the examination of the existence of accruals anomaly using alternative approaches. Mishkin test is a test used in macro-econometrics for rational hypothesis, which test for the market efficiency. Starting with Sloan (1996 the model has been applied to accruals anomaly literature. Since Sloan (1996, the model has known various improvements and it has been the subject to many debates in the literature regarding its efficacy. Nevertheless, the current evidence strengthens the pervasiveness of the model. The analyses realized on the extended studies on Mishkin test highlights that adding additional variables enhances the results, providing insightful information about the occurrence of accruals anomaly.

Two quantitative forecasting methods for macroeconomic indicators in Czech Republic

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Mihaela BRATU (SIMIONESCU

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Econometric modelling and exponential smoothing techniques are two quantitative forecasting methods with good results in practice, but the objective of the research was to find out which of the two techniques are better for short run predictions. Therefore, for inflation, unemployment and interest rate in Czech Republic some accuracy indicators were calculated for the predictions based on these methods. Short run forecasts on a horizon of 3 months were made for December 2011-February 2012, the econometric models being updated. For Czech Republic, the exponential smoothing techniques provided more accurate forecasts than the econometric models (VAR(2 models, ARMA procedure and models with lagged variables. One explication for the better performance of smoothing techniques would be that in the chosen countries the short run predictions more influenced by the recent evolution of the indicators.

MODEL OF ANALYSIS IN THE ROMANIAN FOOTWEAR INDUSTRY

OpenAIRE

Dimi OFILEANU

2014-01-01

The aim of this work is to determine the influence that exports of footwear industry have on the turnover of the sector. In the work, a period of 9 years is taken into consideration: from 2004 to 2012, establishing an econometric model of analysis of the connection between the turnover and direct exports of footwear industry in Romania. Based on the analyzed empirical data, the work answers to the following question: what is the influence that exports of footwear industry have on sector’s tur...

An econometric analysis of willingness-to-pay for sustainable development. A case study of the Volcji Potok landscape area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verbic, Miroslav; Slabe-Erker, Renata

2009-01-01

When the market for a certain good is competitive enough, economic activities can be studied by the market pricing mechanism. Because this is usually not feasible in case of environmental goods with embodied natural and cultural heritage, particular methods for economic valuation of such goods have to be applied. The present article represents the economic valuation of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Volcji Potok, which is an important Slovenian cultural landscape area with internationally recognized qualities. For this purpose we combined classical contingent valuation with a closed-version of discrete choice method, where the protest responses have been removed. By using econometric analysis we obtained the value of willingness-to-pay and established its determinants. We also made an attempt to control for different biases that arise in such analyses. At last, we used the adjusted average individual value of willingness-to-pay to calculate the aggregate willingness-to-pay. The present analysis represents one of the very few applications of the method to Central and Eastern European countries. (author)

DYNAMIC MODEL “ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION - GDP” FOR REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

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Sit B.M.

2007-04-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the development of econometric models of electricity consumption in Republic of Moldova with the purpose of definition of potential possibilities of GPD influence on electricity consumption processes.In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita GDP for Republic of Moldova using VAR model. Our results show that there is bidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita electricity consumption and vice versa. The finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation, emission reduction and economic development.

Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

2018-01-01

The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

OpenAIRE

G. van Zyl; P. Venier

2006-01-01

The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

VAR modelling and Haavelmo's probability approach to macroeconomic modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juselius, Katarina

1993-01-01

Some recent developments in the macroeconometric analysis of time series are discussed in the light of Haavelmo (1944). Experimental design in econometrics is discussed and related to the case of passive observation. The general ideas are illustrated with a analysis of the long-run and short-run ...

Odhad cenové elasticity poptávky po ropě

OpenAIRE

Jonák, Ondřej

2009-01-01

Objective of this diploma thesis is estimation of price elasticity of crude oil demand. In order to calculation of such elasticity crude oil demand is estimated with econometrical methods. The choice of suitable model, which sufficiently and accurately models crude oil demand, is initial position of analysis. Consequently, crude oil demand is estimated from market data obtainable from public sources. This estimated model is verified from economic, statistic and econometric point of view. Cons...

Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2017-01-01

Roč. 54, č. 1 (2017), s. 148-155 ISSN 1007-5704 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Ising model * Efficient market hypothesis * Monte Carlo simulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.784, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kristoufek-0474986.pdf

A Hybrid Setarx Model for Spikes in Tight Electricity Markets

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Carlo Lucheroni

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The paper discusses a simple looking but highly nonlinear regime-switching, self-excited threshold model for hourly electricity prices in continuous and discrete time. The regime structure of the model is linked to organizational features of the market. In continuous time, the model can include spikes without using jumps, by defining stochastic orbits. In passing from continuous time to discrete time, the stochastic orbits survive discretization and can be identified again as spikes. A calibration technique suitable for the discrete version of this model, which does not need deseasonalization or spike filtering, is developed, tested and applied to market data. The discussion of the properties of the model uses phase-space analysis, an approach uncommon in econometrics. (original abstract

A model of the world uranium market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trieu, L.H.; Savage, E.; Dwyer, G.

1994-01-01

In this paper the structure of the world uranium market is analysed and an econometric model developed. The modelling effort is focused on the spot market because developments in the spot market are increasingly being reflected in contract agreements and it is more transparent than the contract market. Changing surplus supplies of uranium on the spot market have led to wide variations in the spot price and this relationship is a focus of the analysis. The results indicate that stocks will reduce to a point where a gradual rise in spot prices can be expected after 1993 but the recovery will be sensitive to new supply entering from non-traditional market sources. (Author)

Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Jin Woo

In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania

Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

2018-04-01

Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

O modelo de liberalização financeira dos anos 1990: 'restatement' ou auto-crítica? The financial liberalization model in the 1990s: a restatement or self-criticism?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Hermann

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The paper examines the revisions suffered by the financial liberalization model during the decades of 1980 and1990. Such revisions were forced by two sets of factors: the unfavorable results of some econometric tests of the Shaw-McKinnon model and the experiences of several developed (DC and developing (LDC countries with the liberalization policy. In the econometric field, the tests have shown to play a weak explaining role of the two key variables of the model: the real interest rate and the saving rate. As for DC and LDC experiences, the main challenge to the original Shaw-McKinnon model was the banking and currency crises that have followed the liberalization policy in most of the cases. Facing these constraints, the 'modern version' of liberalization has embodied several (Keynesian critiques to Shaw-McKinnon's financial theory and policy and has been forced to allow for the need of some degree of government intervention in the free choice of financial market concerning its portfolio composition. Further, the new model make a real self-critique, by admitting that, under certain conditions, some degree of financial repression could be necessary and is even beneficial to financial development.

A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harck, Søren H.

-correction setting, which actually seems to capture the wage and price dynamics of many large- scale econometric models quite well, is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillips curve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impact of various shocks to the model can be profitably...... This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error...

A Phillips curve interpretation of error-correction models of the wage and price dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harck, Søren H.

2009-01-01

-correction setting, which actually seems to capture the wage and price dynamics of many large- scale econometric models quite well, is fully compatible with the notion of an old-fashioned Phillips curve with finite slope. It is shown how the steady-state impact of various shocks to the model can be profitably......This paper presents a model of employment, distribution and inflation in which a modern error correction specification of the nominal wage and price dynamics (referring to claims on income by workers and firms) occupies a prominent role. It is brought out, explicitly, how this rather typical error...

Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. van Zyl

2006-11-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices involve significant human resource and organizational changes, one would reasonably expect this process to influence and resonate throughout all the dimensions of an organisation.

Modelling spatial patterns and temporal trends of wildfires in Galicia (NW Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesús Barreal

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: The goal of this paper is to analyse the importance of the main contributing factors to the occurrence of wildfires. Area of study: We employ data from the region of Galicia during 2001-2010; although the similarities shared between this area and other rural areas may allow extrapolation of the present results. Material and Methods: The spatial dependence is analysed by using the Moran’s I and LISA statistics. We also conduct an econometric analysis modelling both, the number of fires and the relative size of afflicted woodland area as dependent variables, which depend on the climatic, land cover variables, and socio-economic characteristics of the affected areas. Fixed effects and random effect models are estimated in order to control for the heterogeneity between the Forest Districts in Galicia. Main results: Moran’s I and LISA statistics show that there is spatial dependence in the occurrence of Galician wildfires. Econometrics models show that climatology, socioeconomic variables, and temporal trends are also important to study both, the number of wildfires and the burned-forest ratio. Research highlights: We conclude that in addition to direct forest actions, other agricultural or social public plans, can help to reduce wildfires in rural areas or wildland-urban areas. Based on these conclusions, a number of guidelines are provided that may foster the development of better forest management policies in order to reduce the occurrence of wildfires.

Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms among Sole Parents in Australia

OpenAIRE

Alan Duncan; Mark N. Harris

2001-01-01

This paper derives and estimates an econometric model of labour supply among sole parents in Australia, using modelling techniques which treat the labour supply decision as a utility maximising choice between a given number of discrete states. In estimation, we control for random preference heterogeneity as well as Þxed and search costs. Using our econometric model, we look at the e.ects of actual and hypothetical welfare policy reforms on the employment choices of sole parents in Australia. ...

CDM using a Cross-Country Micro Moments Database

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bartelsman, E.J.; van Leeuwen, G.; Polder, M.

2017-01-01

This note starts with a retrospective view of the CDM model [Crépon, Bruno, Emmanuel Duguet, and Jacques Mairesse. 1998. “Research, Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level.” Economics of Innovation and New Technology 7 (2): 115–158.] as an econometric framework for

Crime Pattern Analysis: A Spatial Frequent Pattern Mining Approach

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-10

econometrics. A companion to theoretical econometrics, pages 310-330, 1988. [5] L. Anselin, J. Cohen, D. Cook, W. Gorr, and G. Tita . Spatial analyses...52] G. Mohler, M. Short, P. Brantingham, F. Schoenberg, and G. Tita . Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American...Systems, 9:462, 2010. [69] M. Short, P. Brantingham, A. Bertozzi, and G. Tita . Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models

Cointegration and error correction modelling of agricultural commodity trade: The case of ASEAN agricultural exports to the EU

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. NIEMI

2008-12-01

Full Text Available The objecti e of this study is to increase our understanding of the specification and estimation of agricultural commodity trade models as well as to provide instruments for trade policy analysis. More specifically,the aim is to build a set of dynamic,theory-based econometric models which are able to capture both short-run and long-run effects of income and price changes,and which can be used for prediction and policy simulation under alternati e assumed conditions.A relati ely unrestricted,data determined,econometric modelling approach based on the error correction mechanism is used,in order to emphasise the importance of dynamics of trade functions.Econometric models are constructed for se en agricultural commodities –cassa a,cocoa,coconut oil,palm oil,pepper, rubber,and tea –exported from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEANto the European Union (EU.With the aim of providing broad commodity co erage,the intent is to explore whether the chosen modelling approach is able to catch the essentials of the behavioural relationships underlying the specialised nature of each commodity market. The import demand analysis of the study examines two key features:(1the response of EU ’s agricultural commodity imports to income and price changes,and (2the length of time required for this response to occur.The estimations of the export demand relationships provide tests whether the exporters ’ market shares are influenced by the le el of relati e export price,and whether exports are affected by ariations in the rate of growth of imports.The export supply analysis examines the relati e influence of real price and some non-price factors in stimulating the supply of exports.The lag distribution (the shape and length of the lagis found to be ery critical in export supply relationships,since the effects of price changes usually take a long time to work themselves through and since the transmission of the price effects can be complex.The set of

Food preparation patterns in German family households. An econometric approach with time budget data.

Science.gov (United States)

Möser, Anke

2010-08-01

In Germany, the rising importance of out-of-home consumption, increasing usage of convenience products and decreasing knowledge of younger individuals how to prepare traditional dishes can be seen as obvious indicators for shifting patterns in food preparation. In this paper, econometric analyses are used to shed more light on the factors which may influence the time spent on food preparation in two-parent family households with children. Two time budget surveys, carried out 1991/92 and 2001/02 through the German National Statistical Office, provide the necessary data. Time budget data analyses reveal that over the last ten years the time spent on food preparation in Germany has decreased. The results point out that time resources of a household, for example gainful employment of the parents, significantly affect the amount of time spent on food preparation. The analysis confirms further that there is a more equal allocation of time spent on cooking, baking or laying the table between women and men in the last ten years. Due to changing attitudes and conceivably adaption of economic conditions, differences in time devoted to food preparation seem to have vanished between Eastern and Western Germany. Greater time spent on eating out in Germany as well as decreasing time spent on food preparation at home reveal that the food provisioning of families is no longer a primarily private task of the households themselves but needs more public attention and institutional offers and help. Among other points, the possibility of addressing mothers' lack of time as well as growing "food illiteracy" of children and young adults are discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas

1999-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO 2 tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

1999-11-01

The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs

Carbon tax simulations using a household demand model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Braennlund, Runar; Nordstroem, Jonas [Umeaa Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Economics

1999-07-01

The main objective of this paper is to analyse consumer response due to changes in energy or environmental policy. To achieve the objective we formulate and estimate an econometric model for non-durable consumer demand in Sweden that utilises micro- as well as macro-data. The microeconomic model is conditional on male and female labour supply. A 100 percent increase of the Swedish CO{sub 2} tax will, according to the simulations, result in an increased tax payment of SEK 630 or 0.7 percent of disposable income for the households with the lowest disposable incomes. The corresponding numbers for the richest households are SEK 990 and 0.3 percent 38 refs, 10 tabs.

Model reduction methods for vector autoregressive processes

CERN Document Server

Brüggemann, Ralf

2004-01-01

1. 1 Objective of the Study Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series during the last two decades. The great success of this modeling class started with Sims' (1980) critique of the traditional simultaneous equation models (SEM). Sims criticized the use of 'too many incredible restrictions' based on 'supposed a priori knowledge' in large scale macroeconometric models which were popular at that time. Therefore, he advo­ cated largely unrestricted reduced form multivariate time series models, unrestricted VAR models in particular. Ever since his influential paper these models have been employed extensively to characterize the underlying dynamics in systems of time series. In particular, tools to summarize the dynamic interaction between the system variables, such as impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompo­ sitions, have been developed over the years. The econometrics of VAR models and related quantities i...

The effect of the German and British environmental taxation reforms. A simple assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agnolucci, Paolo

2009-01-01

This article implements a simple econometric approach to assess the effect of the environmental tax reforms introduced in Germany and the UK. Despite the very simple econometric approach adopted in this paper, in the case of the energy demand, our results do not differ markedly from those obtained from complicated multi-sectoral econometric models. In the case of the labour demand, our results differ from the estimates obtained from econometric models where the employment level is not directly influenced by the energy price. On the other hand, our results are more similar to those obtained from models where the level of employment is directly influenced by the energy price. Confirming the findings of Bosquet [2000. Environmental tax reform: does it work? A survey of the empirical evidence. Ecological Economics 34, 19-32] and OECD [2004. Environment and Employment: An Assessment Working Party on National Environmental Policy OECD, Paris], we conclude that environmental tax reforms can deliver substantial reductions in energy consumption while having small effects on the level of employment, effect which can be positive, depending on the size of the reduction in the labour costs and the value of cross-price elasticities. (author)

The effect of the German and British environmental taxation reforms. A simple assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agnolucci, Paolo [The Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, Cambridge University, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB3 9EP (United Kingdom)

2009-08-15

This article implements a simple econometric approach to assess the effect of the environmental tax reforms introduced in Germany and the UK. Despite the very simple econometric approach adopted in this paper, in the case of the energy demand, our results do not differ markedly from those obtained from complicated multi-sectoral econometric models. In the case of the labour demand, our results differ from the estimates obtained from econometric models where the employment level is not directly influenced by the energy price. On the other hand, our results are more similar to those obtained from models where the level of employment is directly influenced by the energy price. Confirming the findings of Bosquet [2000. Environmental tax reform: does it work? A survey of the empirical evidence. Ecological Economics 34, 19-32] and OECD [2004. Environment and Employment: An Assessment Working Party on National Environmental Policy OECD, Paris], we conclude that environmental tax reforms can deliver substantial reductions in energy consumption while having small effects on the level of employment, effect which can be positive, depending on the size of the reduction in the labour costs and the value of cross-price elasticities. (author)

Nonlinear dynamic simulation of optimal depletion of crude oil in the lower 48 United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruth, M.; Cleveland, C.J.

1993-01-01

This study combines the economic theory of optimal resource use with econometric estimates of demand and supply parameters to develop a nonlinear dynamic model of crude oil exploration, development, and production in the lower 48 United States. The model is simulated with the graphical programming language STELLA, for the years 1985 to 2020. The procedure encourages use of economic theory and econometrics in combination with nonlinear dynamic simulation to enhance our understanding of complex interactions present in models of optimal resource use. (author)

ECONOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF CONTRIBUTION OF FAMILY POULTRY TO WOMEN’S INCOME IN NIGER-DELTA, NIGERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R ALABI

2007-07-01

Full Text Available This study shows that family poultry husbandry, business activities and paid employment contribute 35%, 30% and 18% respectively to the household income of women in Niger Delta, Nigeria. The average income from family poultry is N16, 784.53 ($124.33, which is about 25% and 50% of national minimum wage and per capita income in Nigeria respectively. The major constraints to the family poultry in the study area are disease and pest, pilfering and lack of capital. The econometric analysis indicates that wage, business and family poultry income are significant determinants of income of women in the study area. The estimated regression coefficients are, 0.35, 0.32 and 0.19 for wage, business and family poultry income respectively. This suggests that if wage income, business income and family poultry income increase by 100%, total income of the women will increase by 35%, 32% and 19% respectively. This indicates that family poultry husbandry has third rating in potentially influencing women income in the study area. It is recommended from the study that the contribution of family poultry to total income of the women can be improved through proper medication and vaccination of their birds with vaccines that are stable under tropical environment. It is also imperative that semi intensive, if not intensive, rearing technology should be considered as a reasonable option if the problem of pilfering is to be addressed. Improving the capital base of the women through formation of cooperating and micro-credit schemes should also be a welcome development in addressing the problem of lack of capital.

Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Terza, Joseph V; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J

2008-05-01

The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research-two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second-stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work.

Optimization of the Actuarial Model of Defined Contribution Pension Plan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on the actuarial models of defined contribution pension plan. Through assumptions and calculations, the expected replacement ratios of three different defined contribution pension plans are compared. Specially, more significant considerable factors are put forward in the further cost and risk analyses. In order to get an assessment of current status, the paper finds a relationship between the replacement ratio and the pension investment rate using econometrics method. Based on an appropriate investment rate of 6%, an expected replacement ratio of 20% is reached.

Electricity generation modeling and photovoltaic forecasts in China

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shengnan

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979--2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

Models for forecasting energy use in the US farm sector

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, L. R.

1981-07-01

Econometric models were developed and estimated for the purpose of forecasting electricity and petroleum demand in US agriculture. A structural approach is pursued which takes account of the fact that the quantity demanded of any one input is a decision made in conjunction with other input decisions. Three different functional forms of varying degrees of complexity are specified for the structural cost function, which describes the cost of production as a function of the level of output and factor prices. Demand for materials (all purchased inputs) is derived from these models. A separate model which break this demand up into demand for the four components of materials is used to produce forecasts of electricity and petroleum is a stepwise manner.

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobson, I. D.

1978-01-01

Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

ASSESSMENT OF CORRUPTION EFFECT ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT FLOWS

OpenAIRE

Sprinģis, Māris

2011-01-01

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the impact of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Using data from the International Monetary Fund, Transparency International and United Nations conference about commerce and development data bases a cross-section econometric model was estimated to evaluate in which way and how strong corruption influence FDI inflows. Econometric modelling covers the period from year 2000 to 2007 and the data about 82 world countries that con...

The Cost of Collateralized Borrowing in the Colombian Money Market: Does Connectedness Matter?

OpenAIRE

Constanza Martínez; Carlos León

2014-01-01

Under the view that the market is a weighted and directed network (Barabási, 2003), this document is a first attempt to model the Colombian money market within a spatial econometrics framework. By estimating two standard spatial econometric models, we study the cost of collateralized borrowing (i.e. sell/buy backs) among Colombian financial institutions, and its relationship with the effects induced by traditional variables (leverage, size and borrowing levels), and by spatial variables resul...

Automatic generation of Fortran programs for algebraic simulation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schopf, W.; Rexer, G.; Ruehle, R.

1978-04-01

This report documents a generator program by which econometric simulation models formulated in an application-orientated language can be transformed automatically in a Fortran program. Thus the model designer is able to build up, test and modify models without the need of a Fortran programmer. The development of a computer model is therefore simplified and shortened appreciably; in chapter 1-3 of this report all rules are presented for the application of the generator to the model design. Algebraic models including exogeneous and endogeneous time series variables, lead and lag function can be generated. In addition, to these language elements, Fortran sequences can be applied to the formulation of models in the case of complex model interrelations. Automatically the generated model is a module of the program system RSYST III and is therefore able to exchange input and output data with the central data bank of the system and in connection with the method library modules can be used to handle planning problems. (orig.) [de

A broad model for demand forecasting of gasoline and fuel alcohol; Um modelo abrangente para a projecao das demandas de gasolina e alcool carburante

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buonfiglio, Antonio [PETROBRAS, Paulinia, SP (Brazil). Dept. Industrial; Bajay, Sergio Valdir [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, SP (Brazil). Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica

1992-12-31

Formulating a broad, mixed: econometric/end-use, demand forecasting model for gasoline and fuel alcohol is the main objective of this work. In the model, the gasoline and hydrated alcohol demands are calculated as the corresponding products if their fleet by the average car mileage, divided by the average specific mileage. Several simulations with the proposed forecasting model are carried out, within the context of alternative scenarios for the development of these competing fuels in the Brazilian market. (author) 4 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs.

Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cadren, M

1998-06-23

The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadren, M.

1998-01-01

The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

An investigation on the determinants of carbon emissions for OECD countries: empirical evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence.

Science.gov (United States)

Dogan, Eyup; Seker, Fahri

2016-07-01

This empirical study analyzes the impacts of real income, energy consumption, financial development and trade openness on CO2 emissions for the OECD countries in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model by using panel econometric approaches that consider issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Results from the Pesaran CD test, the Pesaran-Yamagata's homogeneity test, the CADF and the CIPS unit root tests, the LM bootstrap cointegration test, the DSUR estimator, and the Emirmahmutoglu-Kose Granger causality test indicate that (i) the panel time-series data are heterogeneous and cross-sectionally dependent; (ii) CO2 emissions, real income, the quadratic income, energy consumption, financial development and openness are integrated of order one; (iii) the analyzed data are cointegrated; (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for the OECD countries; (v) increases in openness and financial development mitigate the level of emissions whereas energy consumption contributes to carbon emissions; (vi) a variety of Granger causal relationship is detected among the analyzed variables; and (vii) empirical results and policy recommendations are accurate and efficient since panel econometric models used in this study account for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in their estimation procedures.

Modeling the Effects of Mergers in the Retail Sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blomgren-Hansen, Niels

2013-01-01

the retail and wholesale markets is constructed, calibrated and simulated based on a concrete case (the acquisition and merger of 250 shops previously organized in a voluntary chain of shops comprising roughly half of the market for high-end cosmetics in Denmark). Model simulations predicts that the merger......According to EU competition law, mergers that significantly impedes effective competition, particularly by creating or strengthening a dominant position are prohibited. To identify these cases, authorities need a quantifiable model of the relationship between the variables that are affected...... by the merger and some measure of competition. Furthermore, the authorities must make their decision quickly, rendering deliberate data collection and econometric analyses infeasible in practice. The decision must be based on easily accessible data. In this paper, a simple model of the interaction between...

A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, Minjie; Hu, Zhaoguang; Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui

2008-01-01

In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

A hybrid society model for simulating residential electricity consumption

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Minjie [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China); State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Hu, Zhaoguang [State Power Economic Research Institute, Beijing (China); Wu, Junyong; Zhou, Yuhui [School of Electrical Engineering, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing (China)

2008-12-15

In this paper, a hybrid social model of econometric model and social influence model is proposed for evaluating the influence of pricing policy and public education policy on residential habit of electricity using in power resources management. And, a hybrid society simulation platform based on the proposed model, called residential electricity consumption multi-agent systems (RECMAS), is designed for simulating residential electricity consumption by multi-agent system. RECMAS is composed of consumer agent, power supplier agent, and policy maker agent. It provides the policy makers with a useful tool to evaluate power price policies and public education campaigns in different scenarios. According to an influenced diffusion mechanism, RECMAS can simulate the residential electricity demand-supply chain and analyze impacts of the factors on residential electricity consumption. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulate urban residential electricity consumption in China. (author)

3D Weight Matrices in Modeling Real Estate Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Mimis, A.

2016-10-01

Central role in spatial econometric models of real estate data has the definition of the weight matrix by which we capture the spatial dependence between the observations. The weight matrices presented in literature so far, treats space in a two dimensional manner leaving out the effect of the third dimension or in our case the difference in height where the property resides. To overcome this, we propose a new definition of the weight matrix including the third dimensional effect by using the Hadamard product. The results illustrated that the level effect can be absorbed into the new weight matrix.

Contagio financiero entre economías: análisis exploratorio desde la econometría Caso Colombia-Estados Unidos

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luís Ángel Meneses Cerón

2012-12-01

Full Text Available El artículo, estudia las relaciones de dependencia entre los mercados financieros internacionales, indagando sobre el efecto del contagio financiero entre dos series de retornos de índices accionarios: el Dow Jones (DJ y el índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC. Lo anterior, gracias a que Estados Unidos es el principal país con el que Colombia mantiene unfuerte nexo comercial y económico. Se hará uso de información histórica de carácter público, comprendida entre enero 1 de 2007 y diciembre 31 de 2010, proveniente de fuentes objetivas y reconocidas en el mercado. Se desarrollará un ejercicio de tipo econométrico, en el cual se establece el nivel de relacionamientoexistente entre los dos índices mencionados. El principal aportede este trabajo es la implementación de la econometría como técnica para el análisis del contagio, que permite inferir las relaciones de causalidad entre los mercados y determinar modelos de predicción robustos que generan un mayor acervo informativo e interpretativo sobre la dinámica implícita en los retornos de los diferentes activos financieros.

Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, P [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN; Smith, V K

1977-11-01

This paper describes a forty-two nonlinear equation model of the U.S. petroleum industry estimated over the period 1946 to 1973. The model specifies refinery outputs and prices as being simultaneously determined by market forces while the domestic output of crude oil is determined in a block-recursive segment of the model. The simultaneous behavioral equations are estimated with nonlinear two-stage least-squares adjusted to reflect the implications of autocorrelation for those equations where it appears to be a problem. A multi-period sample simulation, together with forecasts for 1974 and 1975 are used to evaluate the model's performance. Finally, it is used to forecast to 1985 under two scenarios and compared with the Federal Energy Administration's forecast for the same period. 2 figures, 8 tables, 38 references.

RADON CONCENTRATION TIME SERIES MODELING AND APPLICATION DISCUSSION.

Science.gov (United States)

Stránský, V; Thinová, L

2017-11-01

In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC. The developed model for RC time series is called regARIMA(5,1,3). Model residuals could be retrospectively compared with seismic evidence of local or global earthquakes, which occurred during the RCs measurement. This technique enables us to asses if continuously measured RC could serve an earthquake precursor. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A fuzzy logic approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang; Wang, David Han-Min; Chen, Su-Jane

2006-04-01

The size of the ‘underground economy’ (UE) is valuable information in the formulation of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. This study applies fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to model Taiwan's UE over the period from 1960 to 2003. Two major factors affecting the size of the UE, the effective tax rate and the degree of government regulation, are used. The size of Taiwan's UE is scaled and compared with those of other models. Although our approach yields different estimates, similar patterns and leading are exhibited throughout the period. The advantage of applying fuzzy logic is twofold. First, it can avoid the complex calculations in conventional econometric models. Second, fuzzy rules with linguistic terms are easy for human to understand.

The Impact of the Tobin Tax in a Heterogeneous Agent Model of the Foreign Exchange Market

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Staněk, F.; Kukačka, Jiří

2018-01-01

Roč. 51, č. 4 (2018), s. 865-892 ISSN 0927-7099 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 588912; GA MŠk(CZ) SVV260233 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Tobin tax * Foreign exchange market * Agent-based modeling * Walrasian auctioneer Subject RIV: AH - Economic s OBOR OECD: Applied Economic s, Econometrics Impact factor: 1.053, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kukacka-0472380.pdf

Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth in the North Africa Region: Cointegration Panel Analysis by DOLS and FMOLS Models

OpenAIRE

KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

2015-01-01

Abstract. This article aims at examining the impact of financial liberalization on the economic growth in the North African countries. The econometric study, which covers the period between 1995 and 2013, relies on a sample composed of four Northern African countries and referring to the database of the World Bank data (2013), Heritage Foundation (2013) and Financial Openness of (the Institute for international and development Economics, 2009). The estimate model of cointegration panel reveal...

An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linghui Tang; Shawkat Hammoudeh

2002-01-01

This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band. (author)

An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, Linghui; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

2002-01-01

This paper investigates the behavior of the world oil price based on the first-generation target zone model. Using anecdotal data during the period of 1988-1999, we found that OPEC has tried to maintain a weak target zone regime for the oil price. Our econometric tests suggest that the movement of the oil price is not only manipulated by actual and substantial interventions by OPEC but also tempered by market participants' expectations of interventions. As a consequence, the non-linear model based on the target zone theory has very good forecasting ability when the oil price approaches the upper or lower limit of the band

Macroeconomic modelling of international carbon tax regimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, S.; Mabey, N.; Smith, Clare

1994-01-01

An econometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition, for five of these countries, a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, representing the decline in energy intensity as a function of price and macroeconomic variables. This aims to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. It is shown that the endogenous technical change model does include an important element that is missed in the more conventional approach. However in the long run the magnitude of taxes required to stabilise or reduce emissions would be large, and it is suggested that other non-price policies will become more important. (Author)

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-03-27

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-01-01

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xue Jin

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc., storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Structures and perspectives of the Austrian energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wohlgemut, N.

1992-03-01

The technical tools for projecting future energy demand can be grouped into two broad categories: Firstly, time series or cross section data based econometric models which contain information about customers' past behavior and thus enable to judge the causal effects of economic factors like incomes and prices on energy demand (passive forecasting). Secondly, structural simulation models which indicate how energy services transform to flows of useful, final and primary energy. These models enable to estimate the technical potential of improving the energy application and energy transformation systems (active scenario approach). Comparison of the two approaches with respect to projections for future energy demand yields that, typically, in the short run of econometric approach will dominate the structural simulation model. In the long run, however, this relation will be reversed. The econometric models suffer lack of technical information necessary to describe the demand for energy. The structural simulation model enables an incorporation of technical factors like efficiencies and fuel shares. An application of the structural model is a simulation run describing a scenario in order to reduce the Austrian CO 2 -emissions according to the recommendations of the conference of Toronto

Determination of Japanese buyer valuation of metallurgical coal characteristics by hedonic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koerner, R.J. [Griffith University, Brisbane, Qld. (Australia). Graduate School of Management

2001-09-01

Considerable efforts have been devoted by econometric researchers to understanding Japanese steel mill (JSM) metallurgical coal valuation policies, and whether such policies disadvantage coal exporters. Much of this research has employed the hedonic regression modeling technique of Rosen and examines the significance of coal quality in establishing market price. This article discusses shortcomings in some such modeling studies, and presents results of additional hedonic modeling to buttress findings of previous work suggesting that cross-cultural bargaining factors rather than coal quality explain lower prices for Australian coals in Japanese market settlements. Policy changes that might be effective in ameliorating bilateral market distortions arising from oligopsony characteristics exhibited in JSM contract settlements are then explored. 29 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.

A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

Science.gov (United States)

Laurini, Márcio Poletti

2017-10-01

We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

The child as econometrician: a rational model of preference understanding in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Lucas, Christopher G; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei; Fawcett, Christine; Gopnik, Alison; Kushnir, Tamar; Markson, Lori; Hu, Jane

2014-01-01

Recent work has shown that young children can learn about preferences by observing the choices and emotional reactions of other people, but there is no unified account of how this learning occurs. We show that a rational model, built on ideas from economics and computer science, explains the behavior of children in several experiments, and offers new predictions as well. First, we demonstrate that when children use statistical information to learn about preferences, their inferences match the predictions of a simple econometric model. Next, we show that this same model can explain children's ability to learn that other people have preferences similar to or different from their own and use that knowledge to reason about the desirability of hidden objects. Finally, we use the model to explain a developmental shift in preference understanding.

Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-04-01

Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nachet, S.

1996-01-01

This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, etc. The model built is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

International energy market dynamics: a modelling approach. Tome 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nachet, S.

1996-01-01

This work is an attempt to model international energy market and reproduce the behaviour of both energy demand and supply. Energy demand was represented using sector versus source approach. For developing countries, existing link between economic and energy sectors were analysed. Energy supply is exogenous for energy sources other than oil and natural gas. For hydrocarbons, exploration-production process was modelled and produced figures as production yield, exploration effort index, ect. The model build is econometric and is solved using a software that was constructed for this purpose. We explore the energy market future using three scenarios and obtain projections by 2010 for energy demand per source and oil and natural gas supply per region. Economic variables are used to produce different indicators as energy intensity, energy per capita, etc. (author). 378 refs., 26 figs., 35 tabs., 11 appends

CHARACTERISTICS AND SPECIFICITIES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISTIC RECEPTION ESTABLISHMENTS AND THE EXISTING ACCOMMODATION CAPACITY IN TERRITORIAL PROFILE IN ROMANIA, DURING 2002 - 2012. AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARIAN ZAHARIA

2014-02-01

Full Text Available The economic evolutions in Romania, in the first decade of the XXI century, were marked by increases and decreases with rather large amplitudes. Growth period up to 2008 was followed by a significant recession, the economic crisis started in 2009 having implications in the all economic sectors. After 2011 the economy starts to recover so that we are witnessing a new process of growth. The tourism, industry of the national economy, has perceived the economic crisis also. The number of touristic reception establishment and the existing accommodation capacity has recorded regresses. Both during growth and during the economic crisis, at the regional level, the developments differ significantly. This paper, based on statistical and econometric analysis, highlights the characteristics and peculiarities of the ways in which evolved the indicators of tourism supply of accommodation, both at the macro-regions and development regions of Romania, during the period 2002 2012.

Non-extensitivity vs. informative moments for financial models —A unifying framework and empirical results

Science.gov (United States)

Herrmann, K.

2009-11-01

Information-theoretic approaches still play a minor role in financial market analysis. Nonetheless, there have been two very similar approaches evolving during the last years, one in the so-called econophysics and the other in econometrics. Both generalize the notion of GARCH processes in an information-theoretic sense and are able to capture kurtosis better than traditional models. In this article we present both approaches in a more general framework. The latter allows the derivation of a wide range of new models. We choose a third model using an entropy measure suggested by Kapur. In an application to financial market data, we find that all considered models - with similar flexibility in terms of skewness and kurtosis - lead to very similar results.

A supply model for crude oil and natural gas in the Middle East

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chedid, R.; Kobrosly, M.; Ghajar, R.

2007-01-01

Crude oil (CO) and natural gas (NG) play an important role in the world economy. The Arab countries (ACs) share 64% of the total oil reserves and 40% of the NG reserves [OPEC, 2003. The Annual Statistical Bulletin]. On the production side, ACs contribute to 30% and 9% of the world production of CO and NG, respectively. Accurate forecast models are needed to do better planning and create less risky business environment. In this paper, an econometric model is built to capture the behavior of CO and NG production in the ESCWA countries. The model is used to forecast future production trends of CO and NG, and thus provide a powerful tool for researchers, planners and investors working in the energy field

NEMO. Netherlands Energy demand MOdel. A top-down model based on bottom-up information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koopmans, C.C.; Te Velde, D.W.; Groot, W.; Hendriks, J.H.A.

1999-06-01

The title model links energy use to other production factors, (physical) production, energy prices, technological trends and government policies. It uses a 'putty-semiputty' vintage production structure, in which new investments, adaptations to existing capital goods (retrofit) and 'good-housekeeping' are discerned. Price elasticities are relatively large in the long term and small in the short term. Most predictions of energy use are based on either econometric models or on 'bottom-up information', i.e. disaggregated lists of technical possibilities for and costs of saving energy. Typically, one predicts more energy-efficiency improvements using bottom-up information than using econometric ('top-down') models. We bridged this so-called 'energy-efficiency gap' by designing our macro/meso model NEMO in such a way that we can use bottom-up (micro) information to estimate most model parameters. In our view, reflected in NEMO, the energy-efficiency gap arises for two reasons. The first is that firms and households use a fairly high discount rate of 15% when evaluating the profitability of energy-efficiency improvements. The second is that our bottom-up information ('ICARUS') for most economic sectors does not (as NEMO does) take account of the fact that implementation of new, energy-efficient technology in capital stock takes place only gradually. Parameter estimates for 19 sectors point at a long-term technological energy efficiency improvement trend in Netherlands final energy use of 0.8% per year. The long-term price elasticity is estimated to be 0.29. These values are comparable to other studies based on time series data. Simulations of the effects of the oil price shocks in the seventies and the subsequent fall of oil prices show that the NEMO's price elasticities are consistent with historical data. However, the present pace at which new technologies become available (reflected in NEMO) appears to be lower than in the seventies and eighties. This suggests that it

Comportamento dos custos: uma investigação empírica acerda dos conceitos econométricos sobre a teoria tradicional da contabilidade de custos Cost behavior: an empirical study of econometric concepts about traditional cost accounting theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felipe Dantas Cassimiro Da Silva

2007-04-01

Full Text Available A investigação, em tela, versa sobre a inconsistência dada pela literatura Contábil em termos de estimação do comportamento dos custos. Portanto, o objetivo central deste trabalho é identificar se teoria da Análise Estatística do Comportamento dos Custos, defendida pela literatura contábil, está ferindo os conceitos modernos da Econometria utilizados em finanças, em termos de identificação e correção da não estacionariedade das séries temporais. Para tanto, adotou-se um procedimento metodológico dedutivo através de pesquisa indireta. Para reforçar os conceitos e análises feitas no desenvolvimento da pesquisa utilizaram-se dados de estudo de caso que foram rodados no software Econométrico E-views. Por fim, conclui-se que a teoria empregada na literatura contábil concernente à utilização de técnicas estatísticas em comportamento dos custos não considera a análise da estacionariedade das séries e que, portanto, gera inconsistências estatísticas (regressões espúrias na previsão do referido comportamento. Com isso, o estudo posiciona-se de forma relevante à evolução da ciência no momento em que enseja uma discussão maior em uma área ainda incipiente das Ciências Contábeis, a Contabilometria.This research looks at the inconsistency in accounting literature about the estimation of cost behavior. The main goal was to identify whether the Statistical Analysis of Cost Behavior theory, defended by accounting literature, is infringing modern econometric concepts used in finance, in terms of identifying and correcting the non-stationarity of the temporal series. Therefore, a deductive methodology was used through indirect research. To reinforce the concepts and analyses carried out in the development of this research, case study data were used and processed through the econometric software E-views. Finally, it is concluded that the theory used in accounting literature about the use of statistical techniques in

The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Background Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). Methods We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. Results The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, Ponline self-representation (beta=0.386, Ponline, the market will be more concentrated (known as the “Superstar” effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. PMID:27793793

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

Analysis and modelling of the fuels european market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simon, V.

1999-04-01

The research focus on the European fuel market prices referring to the Rotterdam and Genoa spot markets as well the German, Italian and French domestic markets. The thesis try to explain the impact of the London IPE future market on spot prices too. The mainstream research has demonstrated that co-integration seems to be the best theoretical approach to investigate the long run equilibrium relations. A particular attention will be devoted to the structural change in the econometric modelling on these equilibriums. A deep analysis of the main European petroleum products markets permit a better model specification concerning each of these markets. Further, we will test if any evidence of relations between spot and domestic prices could be confirmed. Finally, alternative scenarios will be depicted to forecast prices in the petroleum products markets. The objective is to observe the model reaction to changes crude oil prices. (author)

Econometric Studies of Stock Market Behaviour

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

This thesis consists of three sefcontained essays, all centering around the topic of stock market behaviour. The papers focus on the empirical performance of a number of asset pricing models, all attempting to quantify and price asset risk. We look at how well these models actually do in describing...... the historic behaviour of the stock market, allowing us to get further insight into what drives the markes....

Application of economic models to estimate the acceptability of a vehicle congestion charge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Carlos Jiménez Serpa

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Through the study of the problems generated by vehicular traffic congestion during periods of maximum demand, the negative externality of congestion would be assessed using Multinomial Logit, Mixed and econometric models, and willingness to pay through a Pigouvian rate. Objective: In this article, we propose to implement a congestion charge to manage vehicular demand, through the application of declared preference gages and econometric models. Methodology: The study consists of the execution of 6 steps or stages: Background of the problem, Context of study, Methodological Foundations, Specification and estimation of the model, Estimation of the function average cost user and social marginal cost, Results obtained Discussion and report. Results: Analyzing the models obtained from the 2053 observations made through the declared preference surveys, it was observed that in order to discourage the use of the private car, a rate of COP 7000 per vehicle entering the congestion area or area should be charged, which would decrease the Use of Auto Particular in 68.7%, referring to this behavior we can say that the government policies that set the collection of the congestion charge is a policy that does not fit the perception of the users. Conclusions: This research identified the rate that reflects as closely as possible the marginal social cost and the generalized costs of each trip in terms of the impacts on the others. Now if we consider the marginal cost due to congestion, we have that the current demand is excessive, the users enjoy the benefit at a cost of $ 3,100COP, but impose to others a quota of $22,152COP. Finally, it is necessary to strengthen the legal basis with the regulation and creation of a National Vehicle Electronic Identification System, which will allow, in principle, charges for congestion.

Agglomeration, accessibility and industrial location: evidence from spanish municipalities

OpenAIRE

Alañón Pardo, Ángel; Arauzo Carod, Josep María

2011-01-01

This paper deals with the location decisions of manufacturing firms in Spain. We analyse how agglomeration economies and transport accessibility influence the location decisions of firms at municipality level and in three industries. The main empirical contributions of this paper are the econometric techniques used (spatial econometric models) and some of the explanatory variables (local gross domestic product, road accessibility, and the characteristics of firms in neighbouring municipalitie...

Exploring the potential of multivariate depth-damage and rainfall-damage models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Ootegem, Luc; van Herck, K.; Creten, T.

2018-01-01

In Europe, floods are among the natural catastrophes that cause the largest economic damage. This article explores the potential of two distinct types of multivariate flood damage models: ‘depth-damage’ models and ‘rainfall-damage’ models. We use survey data of 346 Flemish households that were...... victim of pluvial floods complemented with rainfall data from both rain gauges and weather radars. In the econometrical analysis, a Tobit estimation technique is used to deal with the issue of zero damage observations. The results show that in the ‘depth-damage’ models flood depth has a significant...... impact on the damage. In the ‘rainfall-damage’ models there is a significant impact of rainfall accumulation on the damage when using the gauge rainfall data as predictor, but not when using the radar rainfall data. Finally, non-hazard indicators are found to be important for explaining pluvial flood...

Modeling discrete time-to-event data

CERN Document Server

Tutz, Gerhard

2016-01-01

This book focuses on statistical methods for the analysis of discrete failure times. Failure time analysis is one of the most important fields in statistical research, with applications affecting a wide range of disciplines, in particular, demography, econometrics, epidemiology and clinical research. Although there are a large variety of statistical methods for failure time analysis, many techniques are designed for failure times that are measured on a continuous scale. In empirical studies, however, failure times are often discrete, either because they have been measured in intervals (e.g., quarterly or yearly) or because they have been rounded or grouped. The book covers well-established methods like life-table analysis and discrete hazard regression models, but also introduces state-of-the art techniques for model evaluation, nonparametric estimation and variable selection. Throughout, the methods are illustrated by real life applications, and relationships to survival analysis in continuous time are expla...

An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

Science.gov (United States)

Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

2013-01-01

The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

Analysis of the impact of immigration on labour market using spatial models

Science.gov (United States)

Polonyankina, Tatiana

2017-07-01

This paper investigates the impact of immigration on employment and unemployment of a host country. The question to answer is: How does employment/unemployment in the host country change after an increase in number of immigrants? The analysis is taking into account only legal immigrants in recession period. The model is combining classical regression of cross-sectional data with spatial econometrics models where cross-section dependencies are captured by a spatial matrix. The intention is by using spatial models analyse the sensitivity of employment/unemployment rate on change in a share of immigration in a region. The used panel data are based on the Labour force survey and on available macro data in Eurostat for 3 European countries (Germany, Austria and Czech Republic) grouped into cells by NUTS regions in a recession period.

Predicting the local impacts of energy development: a critical guide to forecasting methods and models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanderson, D.; O' Hare, M.

1977-05-01

Models forecasting second-order impacts from energy development vary in their methodology, output, assumptions, and quality. As a rough dichotomy, they either simulate community development over time or combine various submodels providing community snapshots at selected points in time. Using one or more methods - input/output models, gravity models, econometric models, cohort-survival models, or coefficient models - they estimate energy-development-stimulated employment, population, public and private service needs, and government revenues and expenditures at some future time (ranging from annual to average year predictions) and for different governmental jurisdictions (municipal, county, state, etc.). Underlying assumptions often conflict, reflecting their different sources - historical data, comparative data, surveys, and judgments about future conditions. Model quality, measured by special features, tests, exportability and usefulness to policy-makers, reveals careful and thorough work in some cases and hurried operations with insufficient in-depth analysis in others.

Commercial demand for energy: a disaggregated approach. [Model validation for 1970-1975; forecasting to 2000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jackson, J.R.; Cohn, S.; Cope, J.; Johnson, W.S.

1978-04-01

This report describes the structure and forecasting accuracy of a disaggregated model of commercial energy use recently developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The model forecasts annual commercial energy use by ten building types, five end uses, and four fuel types. Both economic (utilization rate, fuel choice, capital-energy substitution) and technological factors (equipment efficiency, thermal characteristics of buildings) are explicitly represented in the model. Model parameters are derived from engineering and econometric analysis. The model is then validated by simulating commercial energy use over the 1970--1975 time period. The model performs well both with respect to size of forecast error and ability to predict turning points. The model is then used to evaluate the energy-use implications of national commercial buildings standards based on the ASHRAE 90-75 recommendations. 10 figs., 12 tables, 14 refs.

The child as econometrician: a rational model of preference understanding in children.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher G Lucas

Full Text Available Recent work has shown that young children can learn about preferences by observing the choices and emotional reactions of other people, but there is no unified account of how this learning occurs. We show that a rational model, built on ideas from economics and computer science, explains the behavior of children in several experiments, and offers new predictions as well. First, we demonstrate that when children use statistical information to learn about preferences, their inferences match the predictions of a simple econometric model. Next, we show that this same model can explain children's ability to learn that other people have preferences similar to or different from their own and use that knowledge to reason about the desirability of hidden objects. Finally, we use the model to explain a developmental shift in preference understanding.

MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

2013-10-01

How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

Misreporting and econometric modelling of zeros in survey data on social bads: An application to cannabis consumption.

Science.gov (United States)

Greene, William; Harris, Mark N; Srivastava, Preety; Zhao, Xueyan

2018-02-01

When modelling "social bads," such as illegal drug consumption, researchers are often faced with a dependent variable characterised by a large number of zero observations. Building on the recent literature on hurdle and double-hurdle models, we propose a double-inflated modelling framework, where the zero observations are allowed to come from the following: nonparticipants; participant misreporters (who have larger loss functions associated with a truthful response); and infrequent consumers. Due to our empirical application, the model is derived for the case of an ordered discrete-dependent variable. However, it is similarly possible to augment other such zero-inflated models (e.g., zero-inflated count models, and double-hurdle models for continuous variables). The model is then applied to a consumer choice problem of cannabis consumption. We estimate that 17% of the reported zeros in the cannabis survey are from individuals who misreport their participation, 11% from infrequent users, and only 72% from true nonparticipants. © 2017 The Authors Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Econometric Approach of the Scenarios regarding the Impact of the Consumer’s Empowerment and Companies’ Responsibility for Environment Sustainability on the Electricity Market Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camelia I. Lungu

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Energy is a major component of the economy, both as a sector in itself and as an input factor to all other economic activities. This sector is facing major challenges regarding increasing oil prices, severity of climate change or extremely complex implications of the global financial crisis. Organized as an empirical study, based on econometric analysis supported by a rigorous literature review, the paper studies possible correlations between the performance of electricity market, renewable resource consumption, consumers’ behaviour, the influence of economic environment and economic development. It also aims to encourage a new and wider research framework regarding the implications of economic policies’ use on consumers’ perception. The results of the study indicate that the early stage of renewable energy use and the prospect of influencing the consumer behaviour in a way to increase the market performance, through the development of strategies oriented towards sustainable energy consumption, can have a positive impact on companies’ responsibility. It is concluded that consumers’ empowerment stimulates competition, raises efficiency and rethinks companies’ strategies for environment sustainability.

Canadian nuclear power plant construction cost forecast and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keng, C.W.K.

1985-01-01

Because of the huge volume of capital required to construct a modern electric power generating station, investment decisions have to be made with as complete an understanding of the consequence of the decision as possible. This understanding must be provided by the evaluation of the situation to take place in the future. This paper attempts to use an econometric method to forecast the construction costs escalation of a standard Canadian nuclear generating station (NGS). A review of the history of Canadian nuclear electric power is provided. The major components of the construction costs of a Canadian NGS are studied and summarized. A data base is built and indexes are prepared. Based on these indexes an econometric forecasting model is constructed using an apparently new econometric methodology of forecasting modelling. Forecasts for a period of forty years are generated and applications of alternative scenario forecasts and range forecasts to uncertainty assessment are demonstrated. The indexes, the model, and the forecasts and their applications, to the best of the author's knowledge, are the very first ever done for Canadian NGS constructions

Statistical model of planning technological indicators for oil extraction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galeyev, R G; Lavushchenko, V P; Sheshnev, A S

1979-01-01

The efficiency of the process of oil extraction is determined by the effect of a number of interrelated technological indicators. Analytical expression of the interrelationships of the indicators was represented by an econometric model consisting of a system of linear regression equations. The basic advantage of these models is the possibility of calculating in them different, significantly important interrelationships. This makes it possible to correlate all calculations into a single logically noncontradictory balanced system. The developed model of the technological process of oil extraction makes it possible to significantly facilitate calculation and planning of its basic indicators with regard for system and balance requirements, makes it possible to purposefully generate new variants. In this case because of the optimal distribution of the volumes of geological-technical measures, a decrease in the total outlays for their implementation is achieved. Thus for the Berezovskiy field, this saving was R 150,000.

Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation

OpenAIRE

Tito Moreira; Adolfo Sachsida; Loureiro Paulo

2004-01-01

Based on a sample of drivers in Brasilia's streets, this article investigates whether distraction explains traffic accidents. A probit model is estimated to determine the predictive power of several variables on traffic accidents. The main conclusion drawn from this study is that the proxies used to measure distraction, such as the use of cell phones and cigarette smoking in a moving vehicle, are significant factors in determining traffic accidents.

Assessing the need for power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chern, W.S.; Just, R.E.

1982-01-01

The growing controversy over nuclear power has demanded a critical evaluation of the need for power to justify proposed nuclear power plants. This paper discusses the use of an econometric model developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to conduct an independent assessment of electricity demand forecasts related to the licensing of nuclear power plants. The model forecasts electricity demand and price by sector and by state. The estimation and forecasting results for the New England region are presented as a case in point where an econometric model has been used to analyse alternative fuel price scenarios and to aid substantive public decision making regarding new nuclear power plant decisions. (author)

Determinants for Labour Contract Length: A French Microeconometric Study

OpenAIRE

Ben Halima, Mohamed; Ben Halima, Bassem

2008-01-01

International audience; Two types of analyses are conducted to explain the determinants of labour contracts length. The first analysis emphasizes on the contracting costs and the level of uncertainty. The second analysis focuses on the incentive and selection effect of the contract length. This paper test the determinants for contract duration by means of econometric duration models. The estimates are carried out from French data (TDE). An econometric treatment of the endogeneity of the labou...

Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

Science.gov (United States)

Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jia; Zhang, Ya; Ma, Ling; Liu, Xuan

2016-10-28

Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, P<.001) or strong online self-representation (beta=0.386, P<.001) is less concentrated. When health care services are delivered online, the market will be more concentrated (known as the "Superstar" effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. ©Jia Li, Ya Zhang, Ling Ma, Xuan Liu. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 28.10.2016.

Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics.

OpenAIRE

Gregory, Allan W; Smith, Gregor W

1995-01-01

We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We also provide a concise bibliography of recent research on statistical methods for busin...

Binge drinking and alcohol prices: a systematic review of age-related results from econometric studies, natural experiments and field studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Jon P

2015-01-01

Heavy episodic ("binge") drinking of alcohol has serious public health implications, especially for youth and young adults. Previous summaries and surveys have failed to address in a comprehensive manner the effects of alcohol prices on binge drinking by gender or age group. A qualitative systematic review is performed for effects of alcohol prices (or tax surrogates) on binge drinking for three age groups: youth, young adults, and adults. Outcomes examined include binge participation, intensity and frequency. Criteria for data collection and potential sources of bias are discussed, including adequacy of price data. Price-binge relationships are judged using a 95% confidence interval (p ≤ 0.05) for statistical significance. Fifty-six relevant econometric studies were found, with studies and results distributed equally among three age groups. Also found were five natural experiments for tax reductions and six field studies. Null results or mixed results are found in more than half of the studies. The body of evidence indicates that binge drinkers are not highly-responsive to increased prices. Non-responsiveness holds generally for younger and older drinkers and for male and female binge drinkers alike. A limitation of the current literature is that results are only available for higher-income countries. Increased alcohol taxes or prices are unlikely to be effective as a means to reduce binge drinking, regardless of gender or age group.

A model for estimation of the demand for on-street parking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Edith; Mulalic, Ismir; Pilegaard, Ninette

2013-01-01

This paper presents a stylized econometric model for the demand for on-street parking with focus on estimation of the elasticity of demand with respect to the full cost of parking. The full cost of parking consists of a parking fee and the cost of searching for a vacant parking space (cruising......). The cost of cruising is usually unobserved. Ignoring this issue implies a downward bias of the elasticity of demand with respect to the total cost of parking since the cost of cruising depends on the number of cars parked. We also demonstrate that, even when the cost of cruising is unobserved, the demand...

MODELING AND FORECASTING THE GROSS ENROLLMENT RATIO IN ROMANIAN PRIMARY SCHOOL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MARINOIU CRISTIAN

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The gross enrollment ratio in primary school is one of the basic indicators used in order to evaluate the proposed objectives of the educational system. Knowing its evolution allows a more rigorous substantiation of the strategies and of the human resources politics not only from the educational field but also from the economic one. In this paper we propose an econometric model in order to describe the gross enrollment ratio in Romanian primary school and we achieve its prediction for the next years, having as a guide the Box-Jenkins’s methodology. The obtained results indicate the continuous decrease of this rate for the next years.

Can the electricity market be characterised by asymmetric behaviour?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Popp, Stephan

2009-01-01

In this paper, we test for asymmetric behaviour of industrial and residential electricity demand for the G7 countries, using the entropy-based test for symmetry suggested by [Racine, J., and Maasoumi, E., 2007. A versatile and robust metric entropy test of time-reversibility, and other hypotheses. Journal of Econometrics 138(2), 547-567; Racine, J., and Maasoumi, E., 2008. A robust entropy-based test of asymmetry for discrete and continuous processes. Econometric Reviews 28, 246-261], the Triples test of [Randles, R., Flinger, M., Policello, G., and Wolfe, D., 1980. An asymptotically distribution-free test for symmetry versus asymmetry. Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, 168-172] and the [Bai, J., and Ng, S., 2001. A consistent test for conditional symmetry in time series models. Journal of Econometrics 103, 225-258] test for conditional symmetry. Using data that spans over three decades, we find overwhelming evidence of conditional symmetry of residential and industrial electricity consumption. This finding implies that the use of econometric tests based on linear data generating processes is credible. (author)

Modelling energy technology dynamics: methodology for adaptive expectations models with learning by doing and learning by searching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kouvaritakis, N.; Soria, A.; Isoard, S.

2000-01-01

This paper presents a module endogenising technical change which is capable of being attached to large scale energy models that follow an adaptive-expectations. The formulation includes, apart from the more classical learning by doing effects, quantitative relationships between technology performance and R and D expenditure. It even attempts to go further by partially endogenising the latter by incorporating an optimisation module describing private equipment manufacturers' R and D budget allocation in a context of risk and expectation. Having presented this module in abstract, the paper proceeds to describe how an operational version of it has been constructed and implemented inside a large-scale partial equilibrium world energy model (the POLES model). Concerning learning functions problems associated with the data are alluded to, the hybrid econometric methods used to estimate them are presented as well as the adjustments which had to be effected to ensure a smooth incorporation into the large model. In the final sections is explained the use of the model itself to generate partial foresight parameters for the determination of return expectations particularly in view of CO 2 constraints and associated carbon values. (orig.)

Residential electricity consumption in Portugal: Findings from top-down and bottom-up models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiesmann, Daniel; Lima Azevedo, Ines; Ferrao, Paulo; Fernandez, John E.

2011-01-01

An econometric study of the Portuguese residential electricity consumption is presented, with a focus on the influence of dwelling characteristics on consumption. The relationship between the dwelling and household characteristics on per capita residential electricity consumption is estimated at two different scales, involving two distinct databases: the first includes data at the municipality level for 2001, the second is the most recent Portuguese consumer expenditure survey that was collected in 2005 and 2006. The results of the analysis at both scales are consistent and indicate that household and dwelling characteristics have a significant influence on residential electricity consumption. Our results show that in Portugal the direct effect of income on electricity consumption is low and becomes smaller when more relevant control variables are included in the analysis. Future demand of electricity in Portugal will be significantly influenced by trends in socioeconomic factors as well as changes in the building stock. These trends should be taken in consideration in the formulation of policy measures to reduce electricity consumption. - Research highlights: → Econometric study of per capita residential electricity consumption in Portugal. → Comparing models at two levels of aggregation: by municipality and by household. → Using proxies for the dwelling characteristics on the municipality level. → Results from both scales are consistent. → Income elasticity is low and the influence of dwelling characteristics is significant.

Residential electricity consumption in Portugal: Findings from top-down and bottom-up models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiesmann, Daniel, E-mail: daniel.wiesmann@ist.utl.p [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Avenida Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Lima Azevedo, Ines [Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Ferrao, Paulo [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Avenida Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Fernandez, John E. [Department of Architecture, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

2011-05-15

An econometric study of the Portuguese residential electricity consumption is presented, with a focus on the influence of dwelling characteristics on consumption. The relationship between the dwelling and household characteristics on per capita residential electricity consumption is estimated at two different scales, involving two distinct databases: the first includes data at the municipality level for 2001, the second is the most recent Portuguese consumer expenditure survey that was collected in 2005 and 2006. The results of the analysis at both scales are consistent and indicate that household and dwelling characteristics have a significant influence on residential electricity consumption. Our results show that in Portugal the direct effect of income on electricity consumption is low and becomes smaller when more relevant control variables are included in the analysis. Future demand of electricity in Portugal will be significantly influenced by trends in socioeconomic factors as well as changes in the building stock. These trends should be taken in consideration in the formulation of policy measures to reduce electricity consumption. - Research highlights: {yields} Econometric study of per capita residential electricity consumption in Portugal. {yields} Comparing models at two levels of aggregation: by municipality and by household. {yields} Using proxies for the dwelling characteristics on the municipality level. {yields} Results from both scales are consistent. {yields} Income elasticity is low and the influence of dwelling characteristics is significant.

Modelling financial high frequency data using point processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hautsch, Nikolaus; Bauwens, Luc

In this chapter written for a forthcoming Handbook of Financial Time Series to be published by Springer-Verlag, we review the econometric literature on dynamic duration and intensity processes applied to high frequency financial data, which was boosted by the work of Engle and Russell (1997...

Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iniyan, S.; Suganthi, L.; Samuel, Anand A.

2006-01-01

In this paper, three models have been projected namely Modified Econometric Mathematical (MEM) model, Mathematical Programming Energy-Economy-Environment (MPEEE) model, and Optimal Renewable Energy Mathematical (OREM) model. The actual demand for coal, oil and electricity is predicted using the MEM model based on economic, technological and environmental factors. The results were used in the MPEEE model, which determines the optimum allocation of commercial energy sources based on environmental limitations. The gap between the actual energy demand from the MEM model and optimal energy use from the MPEEE model, has to be met by the renewable energy sources. The study develops an OREM model that would facilitate effective utilization of renewable energy sources in India, based on cost, efficiency, social acceptance, reliability, potential and demand. The economic variations in solar energy systems and inclusion of environmental constraint are also analyzed with OREM model. The OREM model will help policy makers in the formulation and implementation of strategies concerning renewable energy sources in India for the next two decades

The significance of Sampling Design on Inference: An Analysis of Binary Outcome Model of Children’s Schooling Using Indonesian Large Multi-stage Sampling Data

OpenAIRE

Ekki Syamsulhakim

2008-01-01

This paper aims to exercise a rather recent trend in applied microeconometrics, namely the effect of sampling design on statistical inference, especially on binary outcome model. Many theoretical research in econometrics have shown the inappropriateness of applying i.i.dassumed statistical analysis on non-i.i.d data. These research have provided proofs showing that applying the iid-assumed analysis on a non-iid observations would result in an inflated standard errors which could make the esti...

Modeling the return and volatility of the Greek electricity marginal system price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Theodorou, Petros; Karyampas, Dimitrios

2008-01-01

Traditional cost based optimization models (WASP) for expansion planning do not allow for mark-to-market valuation and cannot satisfy arbitrage free requirements. This work will fill this gap by developing and estimating models for mark-to-market valuation. Furthermore the present paper examines the return and volatility of the newly born Greek's electricity market's marginal system price. A detailed description of the market mechanism and regulation is used to describe how prices are determined in order to proceed with return and volatility modeling. Continuous time mean reverting and time varying mean reverting stochastic processes have been solved in discrete time processes and estimated econometrically along with ARMAX and GARCH models. It was found that GARCH model gave much better estimation and forecasting ability. Strong persistence in mean has been found giving suspicions of market inefficiency and strong incentives for arbitrage opportunities. Finally, the change in the regulatory framework has been controlled and found to have significant impact. (author)

An approximate fractional Gaussian noise model with computational cost

KAUST Repository

Sørbye, Sigrunn H.

2017-09-18

Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary time series model with long memory properties applied in various fields like econometrics, hydrology and climatology. The computational cost in fitting an fGn model of length $n$ using a likelihood-based approach is ${\\\\mathcal O}(n^{2})$, exploiting the Toeplitz structure of the covariance matrix. In most realistic cases, we do not observe the fGn process directly but only through indirect Gaussian observations, so the Toeplitz structure is easily lost and the computational cost increases to ${\\\\mathcal O}(n^{3})$. This paper presents an approximate fGn model of ${\\\\mathcal O}(n)$ computational cost, both with direct or indirect Gaussian observations, with or without conditioning. This is achieved by approximating fGn with a weighted sum of independent first-order autoregressive processes, fitting the parameters of the approximation to match the autocorrelation function of the fGn model. The resulting approximation is stationary despite being Markov and gives a remarkably accurate fit using only four components. The performance of the approximate fGn model is demonstrated in simulations and two real data examples.

Top-down or bottom-up modelling. An application to CO2 abatement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laroui, F.; Van Leeuwen, M.J.

1995-06-01

In four articles a comparison is made of bottom-up, or engineers'' models, and top-down models, which comprise macro-econometric models, computable general equilibrium models and also models in the system dynamics tradition. In the first article the history of economic modelling is outlined. In the second article the multi-sector macro-economic Computable General Equilibrium model for the Netherlands is described. It can be used to study the long-term effects of fiscal policy measures on economic and environmental indicators, in particular the effects on the level of CO2-emissions. The aim of article 3 is to describe the structure of the electricity supply industry in the UK and how it can be represented in a bottom-up sub-model within a more general E3 sectoral model of the UK economy. The objective of the last paper (4) is mainly a methodological discussion about integrating top-down and bottom-up models which can be used to assess CO2 abatement policies impacts on economic activity

Energy from biomass: an econometric model for production; Energia de biomassa: um modelo econometrico de producao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pinho, L A.Z. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia; Brandt, S A [Vicosa Univ., MG (Brazil); Moro, S; Wong, S [MAPAG, Juiz de Fora, MG (Brazil); Almeida, J M.C. de [Espirito Santo Univ., Vitoria, ES (Brazil)

1988-12-31

The study specify a dynamic model of production adjustment for charcoal and fuel-wood energy. This model is then transformed in two equations being its reduced forms. Annual series data (1954-80) covering the county as a whole are used. Desired or equilibrium energy output is expressed as a function of general economic activity and cost of factors of production. The reduced form equations are fitted by OLS. The results are promising and implications for biomass energy management and government incentive policy are developed. 11 refs.

A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Arima, E. Y.

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200–300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E Y Arima

Full Text Available Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.

A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

Science.gov (United States)

Arima, E Y

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.

Determinants of the distribution and concentration of biogas production in Germany. A spatial econometric analysis; Bestimmungsfaktoren der Verteilung und Konzentration der Biogasproduktion in Deutschland. Eine raeumlich-oekonometrische Analyse

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scholz, Lukas

2015-07-01

The biogas production in Germany is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution and the formation of regional centers. In the present study the determinants of the spatial distribution and concentration are analyzed with methods of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. In addition to the consideration of ''classic'' site factors of agricultural production, the analysis here focuses on the possible relevance of agglomeration effects. The results of the work contribute to a better understanding of the regional distribution and concentration of the biogas production in Germany. [German] Die Biogasproduktion in Deutschland ist durch eine heterogene Verteilung und die Ausbildung von regionalen Zentren charakterisiert. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Bestimmungsfaktoren der raeumlichen Verteilung und Konzentration mit Methoden der raeumlichen Statistik und der raeumlichen Oekonometrie analysiert. Neben der Betrachtung ''klassischer'' Standortfaktoren landwirtschaftlicher Produktion fokussiert die Analyse dabei auf die moegliche Relevanz von Agglomerationseffekten. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit tragen zu einem besseren Verstaendnis der regionalen Verteilung und Konzentration der Biogasproduktion in Deutschland bei.

Essays on high frequency financial econometrics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yang, X.

2015-01-01

It has long been demonstrated that continuous-time methods are powerful tools in financial modeling. Yet only in recent years, their counterparts in empirical analysis—high frequency econometrics—began to emerge with the availability of intra-day data and relevant statistical tools. This

Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pedregal, D.J.; Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A.

2009-01-01

This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

Modelling demand for crude oil products in Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pedregal, D.J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales and Instituto de Matematica Aplicada a la Ciencia y la Ingenieria (IMACI), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Avenida Camilo Jose Cela s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Dejuan, O.; Gomez, N.; Tobarra, M.A. [Facultad de Ciencias Economicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM) (Spain)

2009-11-15

This paper develops an econometric model for the five most important crude oil products demand in Spain. The aim is the estimation of a range of elasticities of such demands that would serve as the basis for an applied general equilibrium model used for forecasting energy demand in a broader framework. The main distinctive features of the system with respect to previous literature are (1) it takes advantage of monthly information coming from very different information sources and (2) multivariate unobserved components (UC) models are implemented allowing for a separate analysis of long- and short-run relations. UC models decompose time series into a number of unobserved though economic meaningful components mainly trend, seasonal and irregular. A module is added to such structure to take into account the influence of exogenous variables necessary to compute price, cross and income elasticities. Since all models implemented are multivariate in nature, the demand components are allowed to interact among them through the system noises (similar to a seemingly unrelated equations model). The results show unambiguously that the main factor driving demand is real income with prices having little impact on energy consumption. (author)

Forecasting Canadian nuclear power station construction costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keng, C.W.K.

1985-01-01

Because of the huge volume of capital required to construct a modern electric power generating station, investment decisions have to be made with as complete an understanding of the consequences of the decision as possible. This understanding must be provided by the evaluation of future situations. A key consideration in an evaluation is the financial component. This paper attempts to use an econometric method to forecast the construction costs escalation of a standard Canadian nuclear generating station (NGS). A brief review of the history of Canadian nuclear electric power is provided. The major components of the construction costs of a Canadian NGS are studied and summarized. A database is built and indexes are prepared. Based on these indexes, an econometric forecasting model is constructed using an apparently new econometric methodology of forecasting modelling. Forecasts for a period of 40 years are generated and applications (such as alternative scenario forecasts and range forecasts) to uncertainty assessment and/or decision-making are demonstrated. The indexes, the model, and the forecasts and their applications, to the best of the author's knowledge, are the first for Canadian NGS constructions. (author)

Do health care workforce, population, and service provision significantly contribute to the total health expenditure? An econometric analysis of Serbia.