WorldWideScience

Sample records for econometric models

  1. Crystal study and econometric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

  2. Econometric modelling of conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, J.C.; Seal, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    The issue of energy conservation in general, and conservation in the natural gas markets in particular, has recently had a much lower profile than in the past, when energy prices were significantly higher and energy costs composed a much larger proportion of industrial operating costs than today. The recent downward trend in energy prices has diverted attention away from this issue. In the face of expected significant real price increases, increasing pressure from environmental groups, and directives on the part of regulator authorities, conservation is once again becoming a topic of consideration in the energy industry. From the point of view of gas demand forecasting, conservation has received too little attention. The intentions of this paper are to establish the need for forecasting conservation in the natural gas utility sector, and to construct a model of industrial demand which incorporates conservation and is appropriate for use as a forecasting tool

  3. Econometric models for biohydrogen development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duu-Hwa; Lee, Duu-Jong; Veziroglu, Ayfer

    2011-09-01

    Biohydrogen is considered as an attractive clean energy source due to its high energy content and environmental-friendly conversion. Analyzing various economic scenarios can help decision makers to optimize development strategies for the biohydrogen sector. This study surveys econometric models of biohydrogen development, including input-out models, life-cycle assessment approach, computable general equilibrium models, linear programming models and impact pathway approach. Fundamentals of each model were briefly reviewed to highlight their advantages and disadvantages. The input-output model and the simplified economic input-output life-cycle assessment model proved most suitable for economic analysis of biohydrogen energy development. A sample analysis using input-output model for forecasting biohydrogen development in the United States is given. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Forecasting Inflation through Econometrics Models: An Empirical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article aims at modeling and forecasting inflation in Pakistan. For this purpose a number of econometric approaches are implemented and their results are compared. In ARIMA models, adding additional lags for p and/or q necessarily reduced the sum of squares of the estimated residuals. When a model is estimated ...

  5. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  6. Econometrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.

    1988-01-01

    The 1988 progress report of the Econometrics laboratory (Polytechnic School, France), is presented. Microeconomy is the main research field of the Center. The applications involve the market organization, the national development, the natural resources and the education. One of the research topics is the development of theorems which allow a relationship between economic equilibrium and optimization, for the increasing efficiency economies. Concerning industrial economy, the investigations are also based on the in situ studies and on the socio-economic factors. The research projects include land selling transactions and public regulation activities, the environment management and the obtention of educational means. The published papers, the congress communications and the thesis, are listed [fr

  7. Spatial Econometric data analysis: moving beyond traditional models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Florax, R.J.G.M.; Vlist, van der A.J.

    2003-01-01

    This article appraises recent advances in the spatial econometric literature. It serves as the introduction too collection of new papers on spatial econometric data analysis brought together in this special issue, dealing specifically with new extensions to the spatial econometric modeling

  8. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  9. Econometric modeling of the balance of social security Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Isaac Figueiredo de Sousa

    2009-01-01

    This work aims to build models using econometrics techniques to explain the components of the balance of Social Security System, or in other words, the net value of tax revenues and the benefit values of the General Regime of Social Security. These models were subjected to statistic validations indicated in the theoretical reference of econometrics, to apply the method of ordinary least square from the classic model of linear regression. From an increasing longevity and the gradual decr...

  10. ECONOMIC FORECASTS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS USING EViews 5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia TomescuDumitrescu,

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of evolution of economic phenomena represent on the most the final objective of econometrics. It withal represent a real attempt of validity elaborate model. Unlike the forecasts based on the study of temporal series which have an recognizable inertial character the forecasts generated by econometric model with simultaneous equations are after to contour the future of ones of important economic variables toward the direct and indirect influences bring the bear on their about exogenous variables. For the relief of the calculus who the realization of the forecasts based on the econometric models its suppose is indicate the use of the specialized informatics programs. One of this is the EViews which is applied because it reduces significant the time who is destined of the econometric analysis and it assure a high accuracy of calculus and of the interpretation of results.

  11. The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-03-01

    established prices. We also have an estimated equation for an end-use residual category which conceptually includes state grain reserves, other undis...forecasting. An important virtue of the econometric discipline is that it requires one first to conceptualize and estimate regularities of behavior...any de- scriptive analysis. Within the framwork of an econometric model, the analyst is able to discriminate among these "special events

  12. Micro Econometric Modelling of Household Energy Use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2002-01-01

    Presents a micro econometric analysis of household electricity and natural gas demand for Danish households observed in 1996. Dependence between demand for gas and demand for electricity; Separability of demand for gas from demand for electricity; Relation between energy consumption and the age...

  13. Possibly Ill-behaved Posteriors in Econometric Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractHighly non-elliptical posterior distributions may occur in several econometric models, in particular, when the likelihood information is allowed to dominate and data information is weak. We explain the issue of highly non-elliptical posteriors in a model for the effect of education on

  14. An econometric model of the hardwood lumber market

    Science.gov (United States)

    William G. Luppold

    1982-01-01

    A recursive econometric model with causal flow originating from the demand relationship is used to analyze the effects of exogenous variables on quantity and price of hardwood lumber. Wage rates, interest rates, stumpage price, lumber exports, and price of lumber demanders' output were the major factors influencing quantities demanded and supplied and hardwood...

  15. An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1979-01-01

    A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

  16. Econometric simulation model of the US market for steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labys, W C; Paik, S; Liebenthal, A M

    1979-01-01

    An econometric investigation of the historical structure of the U.S. market for steam coal was made to forecast demand, supply, inventory, and price behavior. The structure of the steam coal market is examined and a corresponding theoretical model developed. Consideration is given to alternative simulation models based on various combinations of hypotheses about demand and supply. Results from the models are presented and interpreted. 19 references.

  17. Econometric modelling of economic security in business operations management

    OpenAIRE

    Chagovets, L. О.; Nevezhin, V. P.; Zakharova, О. V.

    2014-01-01

    The article deals with econometric modeling of economic security. The model of evaluating transaction costs effect on the level of enterprise economic security is provided. The econometric models of evaluating economic security that are used in research are based on panel data. According to the results, the reserves for increasing the general level of economic security due to transaction costs reduction are revealed. Розглянуто питання економетричного моделювання економічної безпеки. Предс...

  18. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation

  19. Econometric modelling of international carbon tax regimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Clare; Hall, Stephen; Mabey, N.

    1995-01-01

    An economometric model of fossil fuel demand has been estimated for eight OECD countries, relating coal, oil and gas demands to GDP and prices. In addition a model of endogenous technical progress has been estimated, aiming to include both price induced innovation in energy and structural change in the economy as long-term determinants of energy consumption. A number of possible international carbon/energy tax agreements are simulated, showing the impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and comparing the two models. (author)

  20. Models and relations in economics and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    1999-01-01

    Based on a money market analysis using the cointegrated VAR model the paper demonstrates some possible pitfalls in macroeconomic inference as a direct consequence of inadequate stochastic model formulation. A number of questions related to concepts such as empirical and theoretical steady...

  1. Econometric Model – A Tool in Financial Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riana Iren RADU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic situation in Romania requires from the trader a rigorous analysis of vulnerabilities and opportunities offered by the external environment and a careful analysis of internal environmental conditions in which the entity operates. In this context particular attention is paid to indicators presented in the financial statements. Many times they are a model for economic forecasts, future plans, basic business and businesses that use them with a good forecasting activity. In this paper we propose to analyze the comparative evolution of the main financial indicators highlighted in financial statements (profit and loss through a multi-equation econometric model, namely dynamic Keynesian model.

  2. Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, G.; Kokkelenberg, E.; State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY; Ross, M.; Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI

    1991-01-01

    Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's ''measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this ''engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig

  3. A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

    1980-01-01

    The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

  4. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  5. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  6. Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasr, G.E.; Badr, E.A.; Dibeh, G.

    2000-01-01

    This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports (TI), and degree days (DD) on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply. For the 1993-1994 time span, TI is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a negative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995-1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance level. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996-1997 time span also show the significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration analysis for the 1995-1997 and 1996-1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between all variables. In addition, error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally, statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models

  7. Econometric Forecasting Models for Air Traffic Passenger of Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Suryan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation. With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.

  8. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  9. Investigation of international energy economics. [Use of econometric model EXPLOR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deonigi, D.E.; Clement, M.; Foley, T.J.; Rao, S.A.

    1977-03-01

    The Division of International Affairs of the Energy Research and Development Administration is assessing the long-range economic effects of energy research and development programs in the U.S. and other countries, particularly members of the International Energy Agency (IEA). In support of this effort, a program was designed to coordinate the capabilities of five research groups--Rand, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest Laboratory. The program could evaluate the international economics of proposed or anticipated sources of energy. This program is designed to be general, flexible, and capable of evaluating a diverse collection of potential energy (nuclear and nonnuclear) related problems. For example, the newly developed methodology could evaluate the international and domestic economic impact of nuclear-related energy sources, but also existing nonnuclear and potential energy sources such as solar, geothermal, wind, etc. Major items to be included would be the cost of exploration, cost of production, prices, profit, market penetration, investment requirements and investment goods, economic growth, change in balance of payments, etc. In addition, the changes in cost of producing all goods and services would be identified for each new energy source. PNL developed (1) a means of estimating the demands for major forms of energy by country, and (2) a means of identifying results or impacts on each country. The results for each country were then to be compared to assess relative advantages. PNL relied on its existing general econometric model, EXPLOR, to forecast the demand for energy by country. (MCW)

  10. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  11. Development of an expert system in econometrics. Application to energy demand modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauveau, A.

    1993-01-01

    The proper use of econometric softwares requires both statistical and economic skills. The main objective of this thesis is to provide the users of regression programs with assistance in the process of regression analysis by means of expert system technology. We first built an expert system providing general econometric strategy. The running principle of the program is based on a ''estimation - hypothesis check - specification improvement'' cycle. Its econometric expertise is a consistent set of statistical technics and analysis rules for estimating one equation. Then, we considered the inclusion of the economic knowledge required to produce a consistent analysis; we focused on energy demand modelling. The economic knowledge base is independent from the econometric rules, this allow us to update it easily. (author)

  12. BAYESIAN FORECASTS COMBINATION TO IMPROVE THE ROMANIAN INFLATION PREDICTIONS BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Simionescu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models. Therefore, experts’ forecasts are utilized as prior information, for Romania these predictions being provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting (Dobrescu macromodel, National Commission for Prognosis and European Commission. The empirical results for Romanian inflation show the superiority of a fixed effects model compared to other types of econometric models like VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model, dynamic model, log-linear model. The Bayesian combinations that used experts’ predictions as priors, when the shrinkage parameter tends to infinite, improved the accuracy of all forecasts based on individual models, outperforming also zero and equal weights predictions and naïve forecasts.

  13. The impact of remittances on economic growth: An econometric model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dietmar Meyer

    2017-05-01

    In other words, the econometric analysis will be based on those six remittance receiving countries. The paper is then to review the empirical literature devoted to the impact of remittances on economic growth, in order, to identify empirically if there are significant relationships between remittances and growth in these countries. The results suggest that remittances have a positive impact on growth and that this impact increases at higher levels of remittances relative to GDP.

  14. Econometric models of power prices. An approach to market monitoring in the Western US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barmack, Matthew; Kahn, Edward; Tierney, Susan; Goldman, Charles

    2008-01-01

    Given the limitations of data and resources available for market monitoring in electricity markets where regional transmission organizations (RTO) do not exist, we argue that econometric models of power prices could provide a useful screening tool for market monitoring. To explore its feasibility, we developed several econometric models of power prices at two major trading hubs in the West: Palo Verde and Mid-Columbia. We show that our models explain a large portion of the variation in power prices in Palo Verde and can establish a benchmark that can be used to identify outlier prices that are potentially the result of anti-competitive behavior. (author)

  15. Potential of Wolfram technologies in construction and research of econometric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry A. Vlasov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the center of attention of article didactic, applied and research potentials of technologies of the modern knowledge base and a set of computing algorithms Wolfram in creation and a research of econometric models. Econometric models and methods traditionally play a special role in applied mathematical training of students of an economic bachelor degree in Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. Within this article experience of forming of content of applied mathematical training of future bachelor of economy and methodical features of use of information technologies in the course of econometric modeling of social and economic situations and teaching subject matters of «The econometrician (basic level» for students of an economic bachelor degree and «The econometrician (advanced level» for students of an economic magistracy is provided. The allocated sixteen tools fully allow to focus attention to development of innovative components of professional competence of future bachelors of economy.

  16. Econometric model as a regulatory tool in electricity distribution - Case Network Performance Assessment Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honkapuro, S.; Lassila, J.; Viljainen, S.; Tahvanainen, K.; Partanen, J.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity distribution companies operate in the state of natural monopolies since building of parallel networks is not cost-effective. Monopoly companies do not have pressure from the open markets to keep their prices and costs at reasonable level. The regulation of these companies is needed to prevent the misuse of the monopoly position. Regulation is usually focused either on the profit of company or on the price of electricity. In this document, the usability of an econometric model in the regulation of electricity distribution companies is evaluated. Regulation method which determines allowed income for each company with generic computation model can be seen as an econometric model. As the special case of an econometric model, the method called Network Performance Assessment Model, NPAM (Naetnyttomodellen in Swedish), is analysed. NPAM is developed by Swedish Energy Agency (STEM) for the regulation of electricity distribution companies. Both theoretical analysis and calculations of an example network area are presented in this document to find the major directing effects of the model. The parameters of NPAM, which are used in the calculations of this research report, were dated on 30th of March 2004. These parameters were most recent available at the time when analysis was done. However, since NPAM is under development, the parameters have been constantly changing. Therefore slightly changes in the results can occur if calculations were made with latest parameters. However, main conclusions are same and do not depend on exact parameters. (orig.)

  17. Econometric model as a regulatory tool in electricity distribution. Case network performance assessment model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honkapuro, S.; Lassila, J.; Viljainen, S.; Tahvanainen, K.; Partanen, J.

    2004-01-01

    Electricity distribution companies operate in the state of natural monopolies since building of parallel networks is not cost- effective. Monopoly companies do not have pressure from the open markets to keep their prices and costs at reasonable level. The regulation of these companies is needed to prevent the misuse of the monopoly position. Regulation is usually focused either on the profit of company or on the price of electricity. Regulation method which determines allowed income for each company with generic computation model can be seen as an econometric model. In this document, the usability of an econometric model in the regulation of electricity distribution companies is evaluated. As the special case of an econometric model, the method called Network Performance Assessment Model, NPAM (Naetnyttomodellen in Swedish), is analysed. NPAM is developed by Swedish Energy Agency (STEM) for the regulation of electricity distribution companies. Both theoretical analysis and calculations of an example network area are presented in this document to find the major directing effects of the model. The parameters of NPAM, which are used in the calculations of this research report, were dated on 30th of March 2004. These parameters were most recent ones available at the time when analysis was done. However, since NPAM have been under development, the parameters have been constantly changing. Therefore slight changes might occur in the numerical results of calculations if they were made with the latest set of parameters. However, main conclusions are same and do not depend on exact parameters

  18. Essays on financial econometrics : modeling the term structure of interest rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, Kees Evert

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation bundles five studies in financial econometrics that are related to the theme of modeling the term structure of interest rates. The main contribution of this dissertation is a new arbitrage-free term structure model that is applied in an empirical analysis of the US term structure.

  19. An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Panduro, Toke Emil

    2015-01-01

    Omitted, misspecified, or mismeasured spatially varying characteristics are a cause for concern in hedonic house price models. Spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects have become popular ways of addressing these concerns. We discuss the limitations of standard spatial approaches to hedonic...

  20. Modelling the world oil market: Assessment of a quarterly econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dees, Stephane; Karadeloglou, Pavlos; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Sanchez, Marcelo

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a structural econometric model of the world oil market that can be used to analyse oil market developments and risks. Oil demand depends on domestic economic activity and the real price of oil. Oil supply for non-OPEC producers, based on competitive behaviours, is constrained by geological and institutional conditions. Oil prices are determined by a 'price rule' that includes market conditions and OPEC behaviour. Policy simulations indicate that oil demand and non-OPEC supply are rather inelastic to changes in price, while OPEC decisions about quota and capacity utilisation have a significant, immediate impact on oil prices

  1. Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow

    2014-01-01

    : We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

  2. Applied econometrics with R

    CERN Document Server

    Kleiber, Christian

    2008-01-01

    Offers an introduction to the R system for users with a background in economics. This book covers a variety of regression models, regression diagnostics and robustness issues, the nonlinear models of microeconomics, time series and time series econometrics.

  3. An assessment of econometric models applied to fossil fuel power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, F.; Quercioli, R.

    2001-01-01

    The main purpose of this report is to provide a general view of those studies, in which the econometric approach is applied to the selection of fuel in fossil fired power generation, focusing the attention to the key role played by the fuel prices. The report consists of a methodological analysis and a survey of the studies available in literature. The methodological analysis allows to assess the adequateness of the econometric approach, in the electrical power utilities policy. With this purpose, the fundamentals of microeconomics, which are the basis of the econometric models, are pointed out and discussed, and then the hypotheses, which are needed to be assumed for complying the economic theory, are verified in their actual implementation in the power generation sector. The survey of the available studies provides a detailed description of the Translog and Logit models, and the results achieved with their application. From these results, the estimated models show to fit the data with good approximation, a certain degree of interfuel substitution and a meaningful reaction to prices on demand side [it

  4. An econometric model on bilateral trade in education using an augmented gravity model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Tay

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Trade in education has become one of the most important trades for many economies. Yet, studies of education as a trade are scant owing to the conventional view of it being non-tradable. The purpose of this paper is to econometrically investigate trade in education using a nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model, one of the most widely used models in international trade in goods that has been scantly investigated on in studies on trade in education.Design/methodology/approach: A panel data analysis is broken down for 21 exporting countries and 50 importing countries, covering 1050 observations using new UNESCO database. A number of determinants of international trade including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer are empirically tested on bilateral trade flows in education. An econometric model is formulated to test determinants of trade in education using an augmented gravity model.Findings: The augmented gravity model used in this study explains with high significance the determinants of trade in education including wealth of exporter & importer, domestic capacity of exporter & importer, transport costs, common religion, common language and trade restrictiveness of the importer.Research limitations/implications: Taking a macroscopic view of education as a trade may give us a myopic view of the elements important to determine what students or parents of students as well as institutions are concerned with. Nevertheless, the nexus of international trade theories and the gravity model used in this study that are largely and traditionally used on trade in goods and services, but scantly used in trade in education have been found to be highly significant and relevant in trade in education. Future studies on macro-level of analysis involving trade in education could include other determinants of

  5. Development of a long term macro econometric model for strategic analysis and cost assessments in nuclear R and D fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi; Yamazaki, Shigeki.

    1985-11-01

    A Long Term Macro Econometric Model (LTMEMO) has been developed for the purpose of generating economic scenarios for strategic analysis and for cost assessments of technologies in the field of nuclear research and development. The program system of the model is composed of such sub-programs as related social and economic statistic data base and its treatment program, identification and estimation programs of various econometric functions, simulation programs for future projections, and a reference econometric model program. The reference econometric model in the program system would be improved and modified easily by using data base and other sub-programs as the purpose of data retrieval, application of economic hypothesis, and scenario generation. The reference model belongs to a category of such standard types as macro-econometric, deterministic, and descriptive one, however, it was deviated based on the combination of Keynesian theories and Neo-classical theories and was modified by system engineering aspects. The model obtained good performances in such various econometric tests as statistical examinations in parameter estimation of each functions and so called partial tests, total tests, and final tests. Macro economic scenarios α and β, long term projections through 2030 of macro economy in our country were evaluated appropriately by this model. This report describes the process in the development of the model from needs of econometric model in nuclear fields to examples of economic scenarios generated by this model. Some consideration are taken into descriptions on the deviation of each functions and on the application of economic theories for practical use of this program system at the time of modification and improvements of the reference model. (author)

  6. A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

  7. Econometric Analysis of the Market Share Attraction Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractMarket share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of

  8. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  9. EU practices of education staff planning (Application of econometric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr.Sc. Sahit Surdulli

    2011-12-01

    The research results indicated that there is great interdependence between the economic growth norm in the country in one hand and the attained educational results on the economy of knowledge on the other hand. The interdependence between the number of workers and their qualification structure and the results attained in the education field in models, was expressed through equations. The Empiriev model as a concrete model for planning the necessary education cadre for certain levels of economic development is based on the basic model of Tinbergen – Bos. The coefficient values of regression reflect the form and intensity of interdependency between the number of students per million inhabitants and the national income per capita.

  10. Some Econometric Results for the Blanchard-Watson Bubble Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Soren; Lange, Theis

    The purpose of the present paper is to analyse a simple bubble model suggested by Blanchard and Watson. The model is defined by y(t) =s(t)¿y(t-1)+e(t), t=1,…,n, where s(t) is an i.i.d. binary variable with p=P(s(t)=1), independent of e(t) i.i.d. with mean zero and finite variance. We take ¿>1 so...

  11. Econometric modelling of certain nuclear power systems based on thermal and fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavelescu, M.; Pioaru, C.; Ursu, I.

    1988-01-01

    Certain known economic analysis models for a LMFBR fast breeder and CANDU thermal solitary reactors are presented, based on the concepts of discounting and levelization. These models are subsequently utilized as a basis for establishing an original model for the econometric analysis of certain thermal reactor systems or/and fast breeder reactors. Case studies are subsequently conducted with the systems: 1-CANDU, 2-LMFBR, 3-CANDU + LMFBR which enables us to draw certain interesting conclusions for a long range nuclear power policy. (author)

  12. An Econometric Model of Healthcare Demand With Nonlinear Pricing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Johannes S; Winkelmann, Rainer

    2017-06-01

    From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model combines a one-time increase in the otherwise constant hazard rate determining the timing of doctor visits with a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the reform effect. An extended version of the model accounts for a mismatch between reporting period and calendar quarter. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we do not find an effect of the co-payment on demand for doctor visits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Use of econometric models to estimate expenditure shares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trogdon, Justin G; Finkelstein, Eric A; Hoerger, Thomas J

    2008-08-01

    To investigate the use of regression models to calculate disease-specific shares of medical expenditures. Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), 2000-2003. Theoretical investigation and secondary data analysis. Condition files used to define the presence of 10 medical conditions. Incremental effects of conditions on expenditures, expressed as a fraction of total expenditures, cannot generally be interpreted as shares. When the presence of one condition increases treatment costs for another condition, summing condition-specific shares leads to double-counting of expenditures. Condition-specific shares generated from multiplicative models should not be summed. We provide an algorithm that allows estimates based on these models to be interpreted as shares and summed across conditions.

  14. An econometric model of the South African stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Moolman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A wealth of literature exists concerning the modelling of stock markets, as well as the examination of the relationshiop between share price and various economic factors, both theoretically and empirically.  However, most studies use data for developed countries in their analyses, while the literature moselling emerging stock markets in general, and the south African stock market in particular, is quite sparse.  This study develops a structural theoretically founded model of the South African stock market that is estimated using co-integration and error-correction techniques. These techniques respectively estimate the long-term equilibrium or intrinsic value of the stock market, and the short-term fluctuations around the quilibrium level. According to the results, share prices are co-integrated with the variables dictated by the expected present value model of asset price determination.  The short-term fluctuations are determined by various factors such as interest rates, a risk premium, the exchange rate, foreign stock market adn other variables.

  15. Modelling internal migration in Kenya: an econometric analysis with limited data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, G M; Milne, W J

    1988-09-01

    "In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model." excerpt

  16. An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veie, Kathrine Lausted; Panduro, Toke Emil

    Hedonic models are subject to spatially correlated errors which are a symptom of omitted spatial variables, mis-specification or mismeasurement. Methods have been developed to address this problem through the use of spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects. However, often spatial correlation is...... varying characteristics markedly. This suggests that omitted variable bias may remain an important problem. We advocate for an increased use of sensitivity analysis to determine robustness of estimates to different models of the (omitted) spatial processes....

  17. Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullahy, J

    1998-06-01

    In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

  18. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-01-01

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. - Highlights: • We use an econometric model as a tool for assessing the effects of regional policies on the development of economic activities related to the use of the sea and on the impact on the marine environment. • Through scenario simulation we provide strategic guidelines for policy makers and economic planners • The model features feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas.

  19. ECONOMETRIC METHODS AND MODELS USED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin ANGHELACHE

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Gross Domestic Product is the most representative synthetic indicator that expresses the evolution of the national economy. This macroeconomic indicator is used in the analysis of the level of the national economy, as well as the dynamic evolution of the national economy. In the forecast studies we rely on GDP evolution. In these situations, we might identify the factors of economic growth, and their influence. On the evolution of GDP have influence some factors: employees, labour productivity, the level of technology, investments and foreign direct investment, imports, exports or net exports, total consumption, and so on. We can analyze the data series and graphical representation. Detailed analysis is performed using econometric methods, parameters which express interdependence, meaning and intensity of correlation. Thus, we estimate the economic developments. The authors studied and proposed some econometric models for the analysis of economic growth/forecast. The novelty is that we adapt some econometric models to macroeconomic analysis.

  20. Econometrics Models for Copper Recovery: A Case Study of North Waziristan-Copper Deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, S.; Khan, M.M.

    2010-01-01

    Fourteen econometrics models have been developed to evaluate the effects of various flotation process variables like, Propyl xanthate (X/sub 1/g/tonne), pH (X/sub 2/,) Sodium Cyanide (X/sub 3/ g/tonne), Sodium sulphide (X/sub 4/ g/tonne), Frother (X/sub 5/ g/tonne), Pulp density (X/sub 6/ w/vol), and Conditioning time (X/sub 7/ minute) on the copper recovery YR North Waziristan-NWFP Pakistan. Ordinary Least Square OLS method has been applied as an analytical technique for regression analysis. It has been concluded in this study that model given in equation 7 is best model among all. This equation shows that with the increase of one unit of X/sub 1/, Y/sub R/ will increase 0.05 units keeping all other variables constant. (author)

  1. Econometric model of intraurban location of emitters and receptors of industrial air pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santini, D. J.; Braid, R.

    1977-02-01

    An econometric model of air pollution for an intraurban location (the Chicago area) is constructed and estimated. The model treats employment and population as simultaneously determined. Exogenous variables are selected to represent transportation infrastructure investments resulting primarily from federal and state decisions. The exogenous variables account for the relative services provided by highways, commuter railroads, rail rapid transit, waterways, and airports. The employment location equations appear to be considerably more successful than those in previous studies. These equations indicate that waterway availability constrains the locational options of most major industrial air polluters; that highway accessibility is a more influential factor in industrial than services location choices; that rail rapid transit accessibility is more important to services than industrial locations; and that major airports attract light industrial development. The success of the employment location equations reflects the importance of disaggregating intraurban modes of transport and of adding to urban location models the local effects of interurban modes of transport such as water and air.

  2. Forecasting the EMU inflation rate: Linear econometric vs. non-linear computational models using genetic neural fuzzy systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kooths, Stefan; Mitze, Timo Friedel; Ringhut, Eric

    2004-01-01

    This paper compares the predictive power of linear econometric and non-linear computational models for forecasting the inflation rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU). Various models of both types are developed using different monetary and real activity indicators. They are compared according...

  3. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Parallelization Experience with Four Canonical Econometric Models Using ParMitISEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nalan Baştürk

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the parallel computing implementation of the MitISEM algorithm, labeled Parallel MitISEM. The basic MitISEM algorithm provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density using adaptive mixtures of Student-t densities, where only a kernel of the target density is required. The approximation can be used as a candidate density in Importance Sampling or Metropolis Hastings methods for Bayesian inference on model parameters and probabilities. We present and discuss four canonical econometric models using a Graphics Processing Unit and a multi-core Central Processing Unit version of the MitISEM algorithm. The results show that the parallelization of the MitISEM algorithm on Graphics Processing Units and multi-core Central Processing Units is straightforward and fast to program using MATLAB. Moreover the speed performance of the Graphics Processing Unit version is much higher than the Central Processing Unit one.

  5. ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF FIRM’S VALUE IN LIQUID MARKET: CASE OF INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putu Agus Ardiana

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The research aims to investigate variables affecting Tobin’s Q which represents the value of public  companies listed on LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange by developing a  BLUE(Best Linear UnbiasedEstimators econometric model for cross-sectional data of 2007, 2008, and 2009 as well as panel data. The models vary across different data but there are important findings to note. Public companies listed  on LQ45 Index have experienced overliquidity problem during the period of observation leading to a decline in firm’s value. In addition, those public companies have low financial risk so they have chance to  increase their debts especially long-term debts.

  6. Behavioral Econometrics for Psychologists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Steffen; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten

    We make the case that psychologists should make wider use of structural econometric methods. These methods involve the development of maximum likelihood estimates of models, where the likelihood function is tailored to the structural model. In recent years these models have been developed...

  7. Econometrics of risk

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Suriya, Komsan

    2015-01-01

    This edited book contains several state-of-the-art papers devoted to econometrics of risk. Some papers provide theoretical analysis of the corresponding mathematical, statistical, computational, and economical models. Other papers describe applications of the novel risk-related econometric techniques to real-life economic situations. The book presents new methods developed just recently, in particular, methods using non-Gaussian heavy-tailed distributions, methods using non-Gaussian copulas to properly take into account dependence between different quantities, methods taking into account imprecise ("fuzzy") expert knowledge, and many other innovative techniques. This versatile volume helps practitioners to learn how to apply new techniques of econometrics of risk, and researchers to further improve the existing models and to come up with new ideas on how to best take into account economic risks.

  8. Econometric modeling of health care costs and expenditures: a survey of analytical issues and related policy considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullahy, John

    2009-07-01

    Econometric modeling of healthcare costs and expenditures has become an important component of decision-making across a wide array of real-world settings. The objective of this article is to provide a brief summary of important conceptual and analytical issues involved in econometric healthcare cost modeling. To this end, the article explores: outcome measures typically analyzed in such work; the decision maker's perspective in econometric cost modeling exercises; specific analytical issues in econometric model specification; statistical goodness-of-fit testing; empirical implications of "upper tail" (or "high cost") phenomena; and issues relating to the reporting of findings. Some of the concepts explored here are illustrated in light of samples drawn from the 2005 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and the 2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample. Analysts of healthcare cost data have at their disposal an increasingly sophisticated tool kit for analyzing such data that can in principle and in fact yield increasingly interesting insights into data structures. Yet for such analyses to usefully inform policy decisions, the manner in which such studies are designed, undertaken, and reported must accommodate considerations relevant to the decision-making community. The article concludes with some preliminary thoughts on how such bridges might be constructed.

  9. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  10. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, W. P., Jr.

    2010-07-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  11. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, W P Jr

    2010-01-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  12. An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

  13. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soocheol Lee

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan’s emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

  14. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  15. Transportation and socioeconomic impacts of bypasses on communities : an integrated synthesis of panel data, multilevel, and spatial econometric models with case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    Title: Transportation and Socioeconomic Impacts of Bypasses on Communities: An Integrated Synthesis of Panel Data, Multilevel, and Spatial Econometric Models with Case Studies. The title used at the start of this project was Transportation and Soc...

  16. Does having the right visitor mix do the job? Applying an econometric shift-share model to regional tourism developments

    OpenAIRE

    Firgo, Matthias; Fritz, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    This paper is the first to apply an econometric shift-share model to tourism. The approach allows us to isolate the growth contributions of changes in regional touristic attractiveness from those induced by the structure of visitors, but does not share the caveats of the conventional shift-share approach. Our application to regional tourism in Austria reveals important results: First, differences in long-run performance between regions are mostly related to idiosyncratic changes in the touris...

  17. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  18. Econometric models for distinguishing between market-driven and publicly-funded energy efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horowitz, Marvin J.

    2005-01-01

    Central to the problem of estimating energy program benefits is the necessity to differentiate between changes in energy use that would have occurred in the absence of public programs versus declines in energy use that would not have occurred but for public programs. The former changes are often referred to as naturally-occurring or market-driven effects. They occur due to a combination of one or more independent variables, such as changes in prices, incomes, weather, and technology. For a rigorous, scientifically-valid program evaluation, it is essential to first control for these variables before making statistical inferences related to public program effects. This paper describes the economic and statistical issues surrounding quantitative studies of energy use, energy efficiency, and public programs. To illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of different impact evaluation approaches, this paper describes three new studies related to electricity use in the U. S. commercial buildings sector. Specification and estimation of time series and cross section econometric models are discussed, as are their capabilities for obtaining long-run estimates of the net impacts of energy efficiency programs

  19. Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camenzind, Paul A

    2012-03-13

    In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered.

  20. Convolution copula econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Cherubini, Umberto; Mulinacci, Sabrina

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a novel approach to time series econometrics, which studies the behavior of nonlinear stochastic processes. This approach allows for an arbitrary dependence structure in the increments and provides a generalization with respect to the standard linear independent increments assumption of classical time series models. The book offers a solution to the problem of a general semiparametric approach, which is given by a concept called C-convolution (convolution of dependent variables), and the corresponding theory of convolution-based copulas. Intended for econometrics and statistics scholars with a special interest in time series analysis and copula functions (or other nonparametric approaches), the book is also useful for doctoral students with a basic knowledge of copula functions wanting to learn about the latest research developments in the field.

  1. ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OD THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE WATER QUALITY CHANGES ON FISHING ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Antoni Ramczyk

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The econometric model can be a precise instrument for the analysis of the impact of the natural environment's degradation on fishing economy. This paper aims at analysing the influence of the water quality changes in lake Charzykowskie on the fishing economy. This dissertation present the results of a research on the lake water pollution's impact on fishing economy. The economic-ecological models have been constructed, explaining the changes of economic effects of the lake fishery in the conditions of an increasing water pollution in the epilimnion on the example of the catch of Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama, Blicca bjoerkna, Coregonus albula, Coregonus lavaretus, Anguilla anguilla and Esox lucius in Lake Charzykowskie. Performed empirical research looked into the influence of the environmental factors on the size of fish catch. Calculations and analysis show clearly that though the habitat factors do influence the catch size of each studied fish species, they do it with different intensity and in various combinations. Both lake water quality and climate factors changes cause measurable effects on fishing industry of lake Charzykowskie. Among all the examined Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna the highest environmental requirements concerning water quality has Blicca bjoerkna. Whereas Abramis brama has slightly higher environmental requirements than Rutilus rutilus. Empirical calculations showed as well that Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus have considerably higher water cleanness requirements than Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna. While when talking about Rutilus rutilus, Abramis brama and Blicca bjoerkna, most water characteristics still rather stimulated these species' development, when it comes to Coregonus albula and Coregonus lavaretus, in general they suppressed their development. The model has also proved quite high habitat requierements of Anquilla anquilla and correctness of the thesis that

  2. Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katikireddi, Srinivasa V; Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

    2014-06-01

    Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the 'Sheffield model'). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders' views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the 'real life' world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

  3. Demand for natural gas: residential and commercial markets in Ontario and British Columbia. [Econometric-model analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berndt, E R [Univ. of British Columbia, Vancouver; Watkins, G C

    1977-02-01

    An econometric model is used to project natural gas demand in the residential and commercial market sectors. The model specification is a generalization of one developed by Balestra and Nerlove (Econometrica, 34: 585-612(1966)). Demand that is potentially variable because it is not committed to past investments (flexibe demand) is distinguished from demand that is inflexible because it is tied to existing equipment stocks (captive demand). Attention is focused on the effect of temperature variations on gas demand. The nonlinear equation system is estimated by a maximum-likelihood method, using annual data for British Columbia and Ontario during the period of 1959 to 1974. Results show that only in the long run does price have a significant impact on demand. The model is applicable for medium-term policy simulation, but is limited to natural gas fuel. 15 references.

  4. Improving the teaching of econometrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David F. Hendry

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We recommend a major shift in the Econometrics curriculum for both graduate and undergraduate teaching. It is essential to include a range of topics that are still rarely addressed in such teaching, but are now vital for understanding and conducting empirical macroeconomic research. We focus on a new approach to macro-econometrics teaching, since even undergraduate econometrics courses must include analytical methods for time series that exhibit both evolution from stochastic trends and abrupt changes from location shifts, and so confront the “non-stationarity revolution”. The complexity and size of the resulting equation specifications, formulated to include all theory-based variables, their lags and possibly non-linear functional forms, as well as potential breaks and rival candidate variables, places model selection for models of changing economic data at the centre of teaching. To illustrate our proposed new curriculum, we draw on a large UK macroeconomics database over 1860–2011. We discuss how we reached our present approach, and how the teaching of macro-econometrics, and econometrics in general, can be improved by nesting so-called “theory-driven” and “data-driven” approaches. In our methodology, the theory-model’s parameter estimates are unaffected by selection when the theory is complete and correct, so nothing is lost, whereas when the theory is incomplete or incorrect, improved empirical models can be discovered from the data. Recent software like Autometrics facilitates both the teaching and the implementation of econometrics, supported by simulation tools to examine operational performance, designed to be feasibly presented live in the classroom.

  5. The Evaluation of Efficiency of Production Management at Forestry Enterprise: Experience with Discriminantal and Applied Econometric Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pilko Andriy D.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The publication is aimed at coverage of the results of a study on existing approaches to the setting and solving the task of evaluation and analysis of efficiency of management of production processes at forestry enterprises, as well as implementation and development (in line with the industry specificity of the previously proposed approach to evaluating, analyzing and forecasting the efficiency of management of the production process by means of development and application of the economic-mathematical modeling capabilities. A study on the efficiency of the production process management and the usage of enterprise’s basic production assets has been conducted with application of discriminantal and simultative econometric models. Further development of the proposed approach could provide an additional methodical basis for planning activities to improve the management of production at forestry enterprises.

  6. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  7. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  8. Parameterized examination in econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malinova, Anna; Kyurkchiev, Vesselin; Spasov, Georgi

    2018-01-01

    The paper presents a parameterization of basic types of exam questions in Econometrics. This algorithm is used to automate and facilitate the process of examination, assessment and self-preparation of a large number of students. The proposed parameterization of testing questions reduces the time required to author tests and course assignments. It enables tutors to generate a large number of different but equivalent dynamic questions (with dynamic answers) on a certain topic, which are automatically assessed. The presented methods are implemented in DisPeL (Distributed Platform for e-Learning) and provide questions in the areas of filtering and smoothing of time-series data, forecasting, building and analysis of single-equation econometric models. Questions also cover elasticity, average and marginal characteristics, product and cost functions, measurement of monopoly power, supply, demand and equilibrium price, consumer and product surplus, etc. Several approaches are used to enable the required numerical computations in DisPeL - integration of third-party mathematical libraries, developing our own procedures from scratch, and wrapping our legacy math codes in order to modernize and reuse them.

  9. Essays on nonparametric econometrics of stochastic volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zu, Y.

    2012-01-01

    Volatility is a concept that describes the variation of financial returns. Measuring and modelling volatility dynamics is an important aspect of financial econometrics. This thesis is concerned with nonparametric approaches to volatility measurement and volatility model validation.

  10. Econometric modelling of Serbian current account determinants: Jackknife Model Averaging approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Predrag

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to model Serbian current account determinants for the period Q1 2002 - Q4 2012. Taking into account the majority of relevant determinants, using the Jackknife Model Averaging approach, 48 different models have been estimated, where 1254 equations needed to be estimated and averaged for each of the models. The results of selected representative models indicate moderate persistence of the CA and positive influence of: fiscal balance, oil trade balance, terms of trade, relative income and real effective exchange rates, where we should emphasise: (i a rather strong influence of relative income, (ii the fact that the worsening of oil trade balance results in worsening of other components (probably non-oil trade balance of CA and (iii that the positive influence of terms of trade reveals functionality of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Serbia. On the other hand, negative influence is evident in case of: relative economic growth, gross fixed capital formation, net foreign assets and trade openness. What particularly stands out is the strong effect of relative economic growth that, most likely, reveals high citizens' future income growth expectations, which has negative impact on the CA.

  11. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

  12. Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagoumas, A.S.; Barker, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines different carbon pathways for achieving deep CO 2 reduction targets for the UK using a macro-econometric hybrid model E3MG, which stands for Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level. The E3MG, with the UK as one of its regions, combines a top-down approach for modeling the global economy and for estimating the aggregate and disaggregate energy demand and a bottom-up approach (Energy Technology subModel, ETM) for simulating the power sector, which then provides feedback to the energy demand equations and the whole economy. The ETM submodel uses a probabilistic approach and historical data for estimating the penetration levels of the different technologies, considering their economic, technical and environmental characteristics. Three pathway scenarios (CFH, CLC and CAM) simulate the CO 2 reduction by 40%, 60% and 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels respectively and are compared with a reference scenario (REF), with no reduction target. The targets are modeled as the UK contribution to an international mitigation effort, such as achieving the G8 reduction targets, which is a more realistic political framework for the UK to move towards deep reductions rather than moving alone. This paper aims to provide modeling evidence that deep reduction targets can be met through different carbon pathways while also assessing the macroeconomic effects of the pathways on GDP and investment.

  13. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  14. Comment on "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming" by Beenstock et al. (2012) – some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.

    2013-01-01

    We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the ...

  15. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  16. SUSTAINING PADDY SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND LAND DEMANDS IN SABAH, MALAYSIA: A STRUCTURAL PADDY AND RICE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wong Kelly_Kai_Seng

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to construct an econometric commodity model in order to forecast the long term rice production performance of the state of Sabah, Malaysia. The baseline projection shows that the Sabah rice self-sufficiency is estimated to achieve approximately38% in the next 10 years due to the scarcity of the suitable land bank allocate for paddy cultivation. In order to achieve 60% of targeted rice self-sufficiency level (SSL, the size of land for paddy cultivation must be increased in Sabah. Based on the scenario simulation projection result, the expansion of paddy cultivation area will contribute a positively to the industrial rice production and consequently achieving the expected 60% of SSL by the end of 2024. In a nutshell, the state government of Sabah possess state autonomy on the land management, thus the state government plays a significant key role on promoting the local rice self-sufficiency level in the long-term period

  17. Econometric modelling for the analysis of carbon tax impacts in Korea - with an emphasis on the role of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.K.; Kim, S.S.; Moon, K.H.; Song, K.D.; Choi, Y.M.

    1997-01-01

    It is very important to take a look at the role of nuclear energy within the framework of energy demand and supply when the international environmental regulation is imposed. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of imposition of carbon tax on energy sector in Korea. To do so, an econometric simulation model was developed. The model is composed of not only energy part in detail but also economic activity part in a rather simple manner. To analyze the electric sector in detail, energy block is divided into the electric and the non-electric energy sector. In the electric sector there are four blocks such as demand, conversion efficiency, fuel, and price. Several carbon tax scenarios were assumed to figure out the impacts on such variables as C0 sub 2 emissions, GDP, energy demand and price. After estimating the carbon tax effects, another set of scenario was created in analyzing the possible role of nuclear power for alleviating the impacts from carbon tax. From the results it is found that the national economy is significantly influenced according to which regulation is adopted. If international regulation is imposed on the quantity of total carbon emission, the impact is so severe that Korean economy could not stand alone. Therefore, the economy cannot overcome the impact from the regulation only by the increased share of nuclear. However, if the regulation is imposed on the quantity of carbon emission proportional to population instead of total carbon emission, it would bring definitely better opportunity to the Korean economy. In the latter case, there is room that nuclear can contribute. If the share of nuclear increases up to 60% in 2020 instead of 45%, GDP would rise by 1.9% while the electricity price lower by 46%. The model could be used in other purposed such as studies on the impacts from fuel prices increases, from capital investment costs increases, and so on

  18. Econometric Models of Education, Some Applications. Education and Development, Technical Reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinbergen, Jan; And Others

    This report contains five papers which describe mathematical models of the educational system as it relates to economic growth. Experimental applications of the models to particular educational systems are discussed. Three papers, by L. J. Emmerij, J. Blum, and G. Williams, discuss planning models for the calculation of educational requirements…

  19. An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slade, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

  20. Robustness in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Sriboonchitta, Songsak; Huynh, Van-Nam

    2017-01-01

    This book presents recent research on robustness in econometrics. Robust data processing techniques – i.e., techniques that yield results minimally affected by outliers – and their applications to real-life economic and financial situations are the main focus of this book. The book also discusses applications of more traditional statistical techniques to econometric problems. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. In day-by-day data, we often encounter outliers that do not reflect the long-term economic trends, e.g., unexpected and abrupt fluctuations. As such, it is important to develop robust data processing techniques that can accommodate these fluctuations.

  1. Econometric model of the petroleum industry. [Determining crude supply and outputs/prices of refinery products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, P [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN; Smith, V K

    1977-11-01

    This paper describes a forty-two nonlinear equation model of the U.S. petroleum industry estimated over the period 1946 to 1973. The model specifies refinery outputs and prices as being simultaneously determined by market forces while the domestic output of crude oil is determined in a block-recursive segment of the model. The simultaneous behavioral equations are estimated with nonlinear two-stage least-squares adjusted to reflect the implications of autocorrelation for those equations where it appears to be a problem. A multi-period sample simulation, together with forecasts for 1974 and 1975 are used to evaluate the model's performance. Finally, it is used to forecast to 1985 under two scenarios and compared with the Federal Energy Administration's forecast for the same period. 2 figures, 8 tables, 38 references.

  2. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    OpenAIRE

    G. van Zyl; P. Venier

    2006-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices i...

  3. Econometric analysis and energy substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, G.J.

    1981-09-01

    As part of its long-term assessment of new applications for nuclear energy, AECL is becoming acquainted with the techniques of mathematical modelling as used in the areas of energy and economics. Early in 1980, a contract was arranged with DataMetrics Limited of Calgary to prepare an econometric model of the manufacturing sector for Ontario, and to provide AECL with all the information necessary to understand the theory, derivation, and use of the model. This report summarizes the results of this exercise

  4. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

  5. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-03-27

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  6. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Jin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc., storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  7. A MODEL FOR THE PALM OIL MARKET IN NIGERIA: AN ECONOMETRICS APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Egwuma

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to formulate and estimate a model for the palm oil market in Nigeria with a view to identifying principal factors that shape the Nigerian palm oil industry. Four structural equation models comprising palm oil production, import demand, domestic demand and producer price have been estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL cointegration approach over the 1970 to 2011 period. The results reveal that significant factors that influence the Nigerian palm oil industry include the own price, technological improvements, and income level. Government expenditure on agricultural development is also an important determinant, which underscores the need for government support in agriculture. Our model provides a useful framework for analyzing the effects of changes in major exogenous variables such as income or import tariff on the production, demand, and price of palm oil.

  8. Compilation Of An Econometric Human Resource Efficiency Model For Project Management Best Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. van Zyl

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to introduce a human resource efficiency model in order to rank the most important human resource driving forces for project management best practices. The results of the model will demonstrate how the human resource component of project management acts as the primary function to enhance organizational performance, codified through improved logical end-state programmes, work ethics and process contributions. Given the hypothesis that project management best practices involve significant human resource and organizational changes, one would reasonably expect this process to influence and resonate throughout all the dimensions of an organisation.

  9. Energy from biomass: an econometric model for production; Energia de biomassa: um modelo econometrico de producao

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinho, L A.Z. [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia; Brandt, S A [Vicosa Univ., MG (Brazil); Moro, S; Wong, S [MAPAG, Juiz de Fora, MG (Brazil); Almeida, J M.C. de [Espirito Santo Univ., Vitoria, ES (Brazil)

    1988-12-31

    The study specify a dynamic model of production adjustment for charcoal and fuel-wood energy. This model is then transformed in two equations being its reduced forms. Annual series data (1954-80) covering the county as a whole are used. Desired or equilibrium energy output is expressed as a function of general economic activity and cost of factors of production. The reduced form equations are fitted by OLS. The results are promising and implications for biomass energy management and government incentive policy are developed. 11 refs.

  10. An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

  11. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities.

  12. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  13. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    OpenAIRE

    Xue Jin; Xiaoxia Shi; Jintian Gao; Tongbin Xu; Kedong Yin

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is di...

  14. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  15. Proposal of a congestion control technique in LAN networks using an econometric model ARIMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín F Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hasty software development can produce immediate implementations with source code unnecessarily complex and hardly readable. These small kinds of software decay generate a technical debt that could be big enough to seriously affect future maintenance activities. This work presents an analysis technique for identifying architectural technical debt related to non-uniformity of naming patterns; the technique is based on term frequency over package hierarchies. The proposal has been evaluated on projects of two popular organizations, Apache and Eclipse. The results have shown that most of the projects have frequent occurrences of the proposed naming patterns, and using a graph model and aggregated data could enable the elaboration of simple queries for debt identification. The technique has features that favor its applicability on emergent architectures and agile software development.

  16. Two-stage residual inclusion estimation: addressing endogeneity in health econometric modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terza, Joseph V; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J

    2008-05-01

    The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research-two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second-stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work.

  17. Econometric modelling of risk adverse behaviours of entrepreneurs in the provision of house fittings in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Yi Man Li

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Entrepreneurs have always born the risk of running their business. They reap a profit in return for their risk taking and work. Housing developers are no different. In many countries, such as Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, they interpret the tastes of the buyers and provide the dwellings they develop with basic fittings such as floor and wall coverings, bathroom fittings and kitchen cupboards. In mainland China, however, in most of the developments, units or houses are sold without floor or wall coverings, kitchen  or bathroom fittings. What is the motive behind this choice? This paper analyses the factors affecting housing developers’ decisions to provide fittings based on 1701 housing developments in Hangzhou, Chongqing and Hangzhou using a Probit model. The results show that developers build a higher proportion of bare units in mainland China when: 1 there is shortage of housing; 2 land costs are high so that the comparative costs of providing fittings become relatively low.

  18. Econometric Models of Dependencies of the Tariffs in the Market for Information and Communication Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skrypnyk Andrii V.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The market for information and communication services in Ukraine is analyzed based on statistical data. Its main segments by revenue, namely mobile communications and Internet services, are identified. The main regularities of setting tariffs for these services in countries of the world are determined, depending on the welfare of the population, the democracy index, the index of information and communication technologies, as well as the corruption perception index. Scatter diagrams of dependence of the tariffs on mobile communications and the Internet on the GDP per capita are built. The parameters of single-factor and multifactorial models of influence of the GDP per capita, the index of democracy, and the index of information and communication technologies on tariffs for mobile communications and the Internet by regions of the world are investigated. The conclusion is drawn that the tariff policy of the operators of Ukraine is aimed at reaching broad layers of the population, and even after taking into account the effect of the level of the country’s economic development, tariffs remain too low.

  19. Econometric Methodology of Monopolization Process Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitrijs Skoruks

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The research “Econometric Methodology of Monopolization Process Evaluation” gives a perspective description of monopolization process’ nature, occurrence source, development procedure and internal conjuncture specifics, as well as providing an example of modern econometrical method application within a unified framework of market competition analysis for the purpose of conducting a quantitative competition evaluation on an industry level for practical use in both private and public sectors. The main question of the aforementioned research is the definition and quantitative analysis of monopolization effects in modern day globalized markets, while con- structing an empirical model of the econometric analysis, based on the use of in- ternational historical experience of monopoly formations standings, with the goal of introducing a further development scheme for the use of both econometrical and statistical instruments in line with the forecasting and business research need of enterprises and regulatory functions of the public sector. The current research uses a vast variety of monopolization evaluation ratios and their econometrical updates on companies that are involved in the study procedure in order to detect and scallar measure their market monopolizing potential, based on the implemented acquired market positions, turnover shares and competition policies.

  20. Econometric methods for energy planning and policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatia, R.

    1989-01-01

    The paper reports on the following: econometric models are often used in energy planning and policy for energy demand analysis at the macro and sectorial levels; estimating income and price elasticities of demand which can be used to analyze effects of growth and price changes; assessing interfuel and interfactor substitutions; forecasting energy demand; and estimating cost functions and forecasting supply. The illustrations in the paper are confined to single equation systems estimated by least squares method as used in analyzing changes in aggregate energy demand and sectorial energy demand. The use of econometric methods is illustrated with the help of empirical studies from a few countries (notably India). 2 tabs

  1. Impacts of a carbon Tax on the emissions of car transport in Switzerland: an assessment using an engineering-econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Bertholet, J.L.; Chaze, J.P.; Taffe, P.

    1992-01-01

    It is well-known that road transport is the economic sector most responsible for the growing consumption of fossil fuels in developed countries and, as a consequence, of carbon dioxide emissions largely accountable of the greenhouse effect. Recently, the Swiss Federal Council, as many other European governments, has undertaken to set up an energy policy aiming at reducing CO 2 emissions according to the so-called Toronto targets. Among the different measures that can be used to achieve this objective, special attention has been devoted to the carbon tax as an economic incentive to reduce fossil fuel consumption. Considering motor fuels, such a taxation can lead to a decrease in fuel demand through many mechanisms. Conventional econometric models of energy demand, even when they allow to distinguish short-run from long-run responses of consumption to changing economic conditions, do not consider this engineering description of energy demand. Therefore, they fail to capture the important distinction between demand and supply reaction of energy consumption to energy taxation. The authors present an econometric model built according to an engineering logic which takes into account three possible impacts of a motor fuel tax: on the stock of cars, on their average specific consumption and on their average intensity of use. 5 refs., 2 figs

  2. An assessment of econometric models applied to fossil fuel power generation; Un'analisi critica dell'applicazione dei modelli econometrici alla generazione termoelettrica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gracceva, F.; Quercioli, R. [ENEA, Funzione Centrale Studi, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    The main purpose of this report is to provide a general view of those studies, in which the econometric approach is applied to the selection of fuel in fossil fired power generation, focusing the attention to the key role played by the fuel prices. The report consists of a methodological analysis and a survey of the studies available in literature. The methodological analysis allows to assess the adequateness of the econometric approach, in the electrical power utilities policy. With this purpose, the fundamentals of microeconomics, which are the basis of the econometric models, are pointed out and discussed, and then the hypotheses, which are needed to be assumed for complying the economic theory, are verified in their actual implementation in the power generation sector. The survey of the available studies provides a detailed description of the Translog and Logit models, and the results achieved with their application. From these results, the estimated models show to fit the data with good approximation, a certain degree of interfuel substitution and a meaningful reaction to prices on demand side. [Italian] In questo rapporto viene tracciato un quadro generale degli studi che utilizzano modelli econometrici per analizzare la scelta dei combustibili nella termogenerazione, con particoalre attenzione al ruolo svolto dal prezzo dei combustibili. La trattazione si compone di un'analisi di tipo metodologico e di una rassegna della letteratura. L'analisi metodologica consente di valutare l'adeguatezza dell'approccio econometrico nell'analisi del comportamento delle imprese di generazione elettrica. A tal fine vengono esplicitati e discussi i fondamenti microeconomici su cui poggiano i modelli econometrici, e viene verificata la sussistenza, nel settore termoelettrico, delle ipotesi che e' necessario assumere per soddisfare la teoria economica. La rassegna fornisce invece una descrizione dei modelli translog e logit lineare, ed un

  3. Modeling the Construction Sector and Oil Prices toward the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Uchenna Okoye

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically examined the interrelationship between the construction sector, oil prices, and the actual gross domestic product (GDP in Nigeria. Using annual economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS, the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, and econometric statistics, we found that although very strong positive and significant correlations exist between the construction sector output and total GDP output (0.934, the construction sector output and oil prices (0.856, and the total GDP output and oil prices (0.822, these linear relationships only exist for a short time. However, these relationships do not result in any direct causal influence on each other, except for the uni-directional Granger causal relationship that flows from the total GDP output to the construction sector output, which implies that economic activities of other major non-oil sectors stimulate the construction activities in Nigeria. Thus, we argue that neither the construction sector nor the oil prices directly influence the aggregate economy; rather, the other sectors’ activities stimulate the construction sector in Nigeria. Two policy recommendations for achieving the Federal Government’s medium term Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP are suggested: (1 the Nigerian government should de-emphasize overreliance on the oil sector through policy readjustment and (2 an urgent need for economic diversification in Nigeria exists, since we revealed that an increase in the aggregate GDP output is due to the activities of other non-oil sectors.

  4. Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Jin Woo

    In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania

  5. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

    2016-07-19

    There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy

  6. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilma E. Waterlander

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Methods/Design The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM study aims to: I derive accurate and precise food PE values; II quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. Discussion The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential

  7. Econometric Analysis of 2003 Data on the Post-Service Earnings of Military Retirees: Methodology Report

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mackin, Patrick C; Darling, Kimberly L

    2004-01-01

    ...). This report details how the estimation datasets were constructed from these two data sources and describes the econometric methodology in detail, including the definition of alternative models...

  8. The Econometric Procedures of Specific Transaction Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doszyń Mariusz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the econometric procedures of identifying specific transactions, in which atypical conditions or attributes may occur. These procedures are based on studentized and predictive residuals of the accordingly specified econometric models. The dependent variable is a unit transactional price, and explanatory variables are both the real properties’ attributes and accordingly defined artificial binary variables. The utility of the proposed method has been verified by means of a real market data base. The proposed procedures can be helpful during the property valuation process, making it possible to reject real properties that are specific (both from the point of view of the transaction conditions and the properties’ attributes and, consequently, to select an appropriate set of similar attributes that are essential for the valuation process.

  9. Integer-valued Lévy processes and low latency financial econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Pollard, David G.; Shephard, Neil

    Motivated by features of low latency data in financial econometrics we study in detail integervalued Lévy processes as the basis of price processes for high frequency econometrics. We propose using models built out of the difference of two subordinators. We apply these models in practice to low...... latency data for a variety of different types of futures contracts.futures markets, high frequency econometrics, low latency data, negative binomial, Skellam, tempered stable...

  10. Applying the Dufournaud econometric model to the determination of the prices dynamics impact over the national economy and over its main vulnerable sectors in connection with the Romanian national economy specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Claudia Serban

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available In economics, a model represents an abstract, formal image of a phenomenon, process or economic system. It is built by symbolically reproducing the economic theory and by getting new information regarding the behavior of the objective being investigated. In economic theory there are several integrated econometric models meant to underline the interdependency between the branches of a national economy by the public utilities services, especially those connected to energy. The present article presents the first results of our efforts of building an econometric model adapted to the specificity of the Romanian economy, that would underline the impact of the prices modification for public utilities on the Romanian economy as a hole, on the competitiveness of Romanian companies and on the inflation.

  11. An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollitt, Hector; Park, Seung-Joon; Lee, Soocheol; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econometric E3MG model. Our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to Japanese GDP is close to zero, and for employment the impact is slightly positive. Our results also show a double-dividend effect if (revenue-neutral) carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the GHG reduction targets, and this double-dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power. However, our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25% reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power. - Highlights: • We modelled 12 scenarios for Japan with different shares for nuclear power and different emission targets. • The results showed that phasing out nuclear power would have at most a very small reduction in GDP. • If a carbon tax with revenue recycling is applied, there could be an increase in GDP. • But the carbon price required to meet Japan's 25% emission reduction target is very high if the share of nuclear power is reduced

  12. Un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle imprese in Italia (An econometric model for bank lending to companies in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Casolaro

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico del credito bancario alle imprese in Italia per il periodo 1988-2004. I prestiti bancari sono espressi in funzione del rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (che approssima il fabbisogno di finanziamenti esterni, delle attività immobilizzate nel bilancio delle imprese (misurate dallo stock di capitale e del differenziale tra il tasso sui prestiti a breve termine e il rendimento del mercato interbancario (che approssima il costo relativo del credito bancario rispetto a forme di finanziamento alternative. I risultati empirici evidenziano nel lungo periodo un legame diretto del credito bancario con le attività immobilizzate (l’elasticità è pari a uno e con il rapporto tra investimenti fissi e margine operativo lordo (l’incremento di un punto percentuale del rapporto produce un’espansione del credito del 2%. Le stime econometriche mostrano al contrario una correlazione negativa con il differenziale tra i tassi d’interesse: un aumento di 10 punti base del differenziale tra i tassi determinerebbe, infatti, una riduzione del credito nel lungo periodo pari allo 0,7%.   This paper presents the estimation of an econometric model of bank credit to firms in Italy for the period 1988-2004. Bank loans are expressed as a function of the ratio of fixed capital formation and gross operating margin (which approximates the external financing needs of fixed assets in the financial statements of companies (as measured by the stock of capital and the difference between the interest rate on short-term loans and efficiency of the interbank market (which approximates the relative cost of bank credit compared to alternative forms of financing.The empirical results show a direct link between long-term bank credit with fixed assets (the elasticity is equal to one and the ratio of fixed capital formation and gross operating profit (increase of one percentage point of the report

  13. Econometrics in R: Past, Present, and Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Achim Zeileis

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Recently, computational methods and software have been receiving more attention in the econometrics literature, emphasizing that they are integral components of modern econometric research. This has also promoted the development of many new econometrics software packages written in R and made available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network. This special volume on "Econometrics in R" features a selection of these recent activities that includes packages for econometric analysis of cross-section, time series and panel data. This introduction to the special volume highlights the contents of the contributions and embeds them into a brief overview of other past, present, and future projects for econometrics in R.

  14. Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Ling (Shiqing); M.J. McAleer (Michael); H. Tong (Howell)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time

  15. Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Ling (Shiqing); M.J. McAleer (Michael); H. Tong (Howell)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time

  16. Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Ling, S.; McAleer, M.J.; Tong, H.

    2015-01-01

    __Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time series analysis. The purpose of this special issue of the journal on “Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics” is to highlight several areas of research by leading academics in which novel methods have contrib...

  17. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-10-22

    To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. The UK. The UK adult population. Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

  18. Un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia (An econometric model for bank lending to households in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Casolaro

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Questo lavoro presenta la stima di un modello econometrico per il credito bancario alle famiglie in Italia nel periodo 1984-2003. Il modello si compone di due equazioni: prestiti per l’acquisto di abitazioni e altri prestiti alle famiglie (tipicamente credito al consumo e finanziamenti in conto corrente. Entrambe le equazioni evidenziano uno stretto legame con l’andamento congiunturale dell’economia e il livello dei tassi di interesse reali; i mutui alle famiglie sono influenzati anche dalla dinamica del mercato immobiliare e di quello azionario. Il lavoro verifica l’esistenza di cambiamenti strutturali nelle equazioni in relazione alle trasformazioni intervenute nel mercato del credito nella seconda parte degli anni novanta e scompone il contributo alla crescita del credito alle famiglie tra i diversi fattori.  This paper presents the estimation of an econometric model for bank lending to households in Italy in the period 1984-2003. The model consists of two equations: loans for house purchase and other loans to households (typically consumer credit and loans in the current account. Both equations show a close relationship with the economic trend and the level of real interest rates; household mortgages are also influenced by the dynamics of the housing market and the equity market. The work verifies the existence of structural changes in the equations in relation to the changes occurred in the credit market in the second half of the nineties and breaks down the contribution to growth in lending to households between the different factors.  JEL Codes: D12, G21Keywords: credito bancario, famiglie, prestiti, modello econometrico

  19. Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

    2008-10-01

    Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

  20. Housing Price Volatility and Econometrics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sunega, Petr; Lux, Martin; Zemčík, Petr

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2014), s. 70-78 ISSN 2336-2839 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP404/12/1446 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 ; RVO:67985998 Keywords : econometrics * housing prices * price bubbles Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography

  1. Alternative approaches for econometric analysis of panel count data using dynamic latent class models (with application to doctor visits data).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyppolite, Judex; Trivedi, Pravin

    2012-06-01

    Cross-sectional latent class regression models, also known as switching regressions or hidden Markov models, cannot identify transitions between classes that may occur over time. This limitation can potentially be overcome when panel data are available. For such data, we develop a sequence of models that combine features of the static cross-sectional latent class (finite mixture) models with those of hidden Markov models. We model the probability of movement between categories in terms of a Markovian structure, which links the current state with a previous state, where state may refer to the category of an individual. This article presents a suite of mixture models of varying degree of complexity and flexibility for use in a panel count data setting, beginning with a baseline model which is a two-component mixture of Poisson distribution in which latent classes are fixed and permanent. Sequentially, we extend this framework (i) to allow the mixing proportions to be smoothly varying continuous functions of time-varying covariates, (ii) to add time dependence to the benchmark model by modeling the class-indicator variable as a first-order Markov chain and (iii) to extend item (i) by making it dynamic and introducing covariate dependence in the transition probabilities. We develop and implement estimation algorithms for these models and provide an empirical illustration using 1995-1999 panel data on the number of doctor visits derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Misreporting and econometric modelling of zeros in survey data on social bads: An application to cannabis consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, William; Harris, Mark N; Srivastava, Preety; Zhao, Xueyan

    2018-02-01

    When modelling "social bads," such as illegal drug consumption, researchers are often faced with a dependent variable characterised by a large number of zero observations. Building on the recent literature on hurdle and double-hurdle models, we propose a double-inflated modelling framework, where the zero observations are allowed to come from the following: nonparticipants; participant misreporters (who have larger loss functions associated with a truthful response); and infrequent consumers. Due to our empirical application, the model is derived for the case of an ordered discrete-dependent variable. However, it is similarly possible to augment other such zero-inflated models (e.g., zero-inflated count models, and double-hurdle models for continuous variables). The model is then applied to a consumer choice problem of cannabis consumption. We estimate that 17% of the reported zeros in the cannabis survey are from individuals who misreport their participation, 11% from infrequent users, and only 72% from true nonparticipants. © 2017 The Authors Health Economics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arima, E. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200–300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

  4. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Y Arima

    Full Text Available Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.

  5. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arima, E Y

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads.

  6. Endogeneity, Time-Varying Coefficients, and Incorrect vs. Correct Ways of Specifying the Error Terms of Econometric Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Using the net effect of all relevant regressors omitted from a model to form its error term is incorrect because the coefficients and error term of such a model are non-unique. Non-unique coefficients cannot possess consistent estimators. Uniqueness can be achieved if; instead; one uses certain “sufficient sets” of (relevant regressors omitted from each model to represent the error term. In this case; the unique coefficient on any non-constant regressor takes the form of the sum of a bias-free component and omitted-regressor biases. Measurement-error bias can also be incorporated into this sum. We show that if our procedures are followed; accurate estimation of bias-free components is possible.

  7. Development and introduction of a decision support system. A case study of an econometric corporate financial model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dikkers, Gerhard Johan Otto Dorus

    1982-01-01

    De ontwikg.j.o.d.dikkerskeling van een ondernemingsmodel is ter hand genomen om het inzicht in de toekomstige ontwikkeling van de financiele gang van zaken van de onderneming te verbeteren. Voorts moet het model de bedrijfsleiding een middel verschaffen om beslissingen over de inzet van

  8. A structural econometric model of family valuation and choice of employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanness, David J

    2003-09-01

    This paper estimates a fully structural unitary household model of employment and health insurance decisions for dual wage-earner families with children in the United States, using data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Families choose hours of work and the breakdown of compensation between cash wages and health insurance benefits for each wage earner in order to maximize expected utility under uncertain need for medical care. Heterogeneous demand for the employer-sponsored health insurance is thus generated directly from variations in health status and earning potential. The paper concludes by discussing the benefits of using structural models for simulating welfare effects of insurance reform relative to the costly assumptions that must be imposed for identification. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

    2017-05-01

    Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

  10. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  12. Moment Restriction-based Econometric Methods: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Kunitomo (Naoto); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y. Nishiyama (Yoshihiko)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMoment restriction-based econometric modelling is a broad class which includes the parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric approaches. Moments and conditional moments themselves are nonparametric quantities. If a model is specified in part up to some finite dimensional parameters,

  13. Long Term Association of Tropospheric Trace gases over Pakistan by exploiting satellite observations and development of Econometric Regression based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeb, Naila; Fahim Khokhar, Muhammad; Khan, Saud Ahmed; Noreen, Asma; Murtaza, Rabbia

    2017-04-01

    . Furthermore to explore causal relation, regression analysis is employed to estimate model for CO and TOC. This model numerically estimated the long term association of trace gases over the region.

  14. Epistemological shell of the econometric findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madžar Ljubomir

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is a continuation of the dialogue relating to the study cited as the first item in the reference list to this article. It contains further comments on that study as well as responses to the authors’ reply to the previously given comments, published in a special issue of the Ekonomski anali cited as the second item of the reference list. The principal issue of this exchange is the treatment of previous non-econometric work in the field of macroeconomic interrelationships and of the corresponding changes in the economy of Serbia. The postulate advanced in this text is the same as the one in the previous critical review of the study by Arsić et al. (2005a and consists in the statement that econometric analysis of empirical characteristics of the Serbian economy should respect and incorporate knowledge accumulated through the use of non-econometric techniques before the study was produced. Econometricians should do that by framing appropriately their maintained hypotheses, by selecting structural specification of the various relations in the model and through interpreting the results obtained in the form of econometric estimates. A number of critical observations are reiterated regarding the way some relations are structurally specified. Among such criticized relations are the model’s production function having imports as the only argument and the import function. Imports are judged as inappropriate in the role of the argument in the production function because they not only contribute to production through technological complementarities but also reduce it through the demand segment of the system, by capturing a good deal of domestic demand and stifling a number of sectors of domestic economy. Imports are financed, among other, by several ephemeral, short-lived sources such as donations, foreign indebtedness and privatization receipts. Imports are therefore not sustainable and their enormous increase within a limited time interval

  15. Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Adam D M; Mytton, Oliver T; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-10-31

    To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. United Kingdom. Adults aged 16 and over. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

  16. Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

  17. Spatial econometrics using microdata

    CERN Document Server

    Dubé, Jean

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to spatial analyses concerning disaggregated (or micro) spatial data.Particular emphasis is put on spatial data compilation and the structuring of the connections between the observations. Descriptive analysis methods of spatial data are presented in order to identify and measure the spatial, global and local dependency.The authors then focus on autoregressive spatial models, to control the problem of spatial dependency between the residues of a basic linear statistical model, thereby contravening one of the basic hypotheses of the ordinary least squares appr

  18. Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives : An overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze.

  19. Econometric Analysis of Financial Derivatives: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ One of the fastest growing areas in empirical finance, and also one of the least rigorously analyzed, especially from a financial econometrics perspective, is the econometric analysis of financial derivatives, which are typically complicated and difficult to analyze.

  20. Oil dependency of the Russian economy: an econometric analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Benedictow, Andreas; Fjærtoft, Daniel; Løfsnæs, Ole

    2010-01-01

    Abstract: A macro econometric model of the Russian economy is developed, containing 13 estimated equations – covering major national account variables, government expenditures and revenues, interest rates, prices and the labour market. The model is tailored to analyze effects of changes in the oil price and economic policy variables. The model has good statistical properties and tracks history well over the estimation period, which runs from 1995Q1 to 2008Q1. Model simulations indicate tha...

  1. Econometrics of financial high-frequency data

    CERN Document Server

    Hautsch, Nikolaus

    2011-01-01

    This book covers major approaches in high-frequency econometrics. It discusses implementation details, provides insights into properties of high-frequency data as well as institutional settings and presents applications.

  2. Multi-criteria and econometric evaluation of dairy products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karmen Pažek

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the multi-criteria assessment of four dairy products: “Pomursko mlejko” (Pomurje milk, “Lejko mleko” (light milk, “Fyto mleko” (Fyto milk and “Posneto mleko v prahu” (dried milk. The research was executed by using a multi-criteria methodology, DEX, which was complemented by an econometric analysis for light milk to estimate the trends in production and consumption before analyzed dairy products were implemented on the market. DEXi computer program results indicated that all analyzed milk products were ‘above average’. The econometric model was applied to examine changes in the demand for low-fat milk (light milk. Empirical results showed significant consumer re¬sponse to the increase in the prices of low-fat milk demonstrating income elasticity (1,15 unit.

  3. Survey on econometric analysis of oil substitute energy; Sekiyu daitai energy keiryo bunseki chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    For the econometric analysis of petroleum substitution energy, a domestic econometric model was developed which can concretely and econometrically grasp and analyze effects of measures taken for environmental policies, energy conservation, promotion of new energy, etc. The model was made so synthetic as to catch a relationship between energy supply/demand and changes of econosocial structures in economic growth, industrial structure, life style, etc. which are extremely important elements for catching future energy demand. The model is composed of a secondary energy price model, a new energy introduction model, and an energy supply/demand model. As case parameters, selected were the price of crude oil, introduction of new energy, GDP and energy conservation, and the following cases were assumed: standard case, high price energy case, new energy introduction promotion case, low economic growth case, energy conservation case, and low energy demand case. The results of simulating each of these cases were indicated. 91 figs., 110 tabs.

  4. Econometric Methods within Romanian Quarterly National Accounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Livia Marineta Drăguşin

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to synthesise the main econometric methods (including the mathematical and statistical ones used in the Romanian Quarterly National Accounts compilation, irrespectively of Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP. These methods are adapted for a fast manner to operatively provide information about the country macroeconomic evolution to interested users. In this context, the mathematical and econometric methods play an important role in obtaining quarterly accounts valued in current prices and in constant prices, in seasonal adjustments and flash estimates of QGDP.

  5. Short-memory linear processes and econometric applications

    CERN Document Server

    Mynbaev, Kairat T

    2011-01-01

    This book serves as a comprehensive source of asymptotic results for econometric models with deterministic exogenous regressors. Such regressors include linear (more generally, piece-wise polynomial) trends, seasonally oscillating functions, and slowly varying functions including logarithmic trends, as well as some specifications of spatial matrices in the theory of spatial models. The book begins with central limit theorems (CLTs) for weighted sums of short memory linear processes. This part contains the analysis of certain operators in Lp spaces and their employment in the derivation of CLTs

  6. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  7. Object-Oriented Econometrics with Ox

    OpenAIRE

    Kulaksizoglu, Tamer

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the object-oriented features of the Ox matrix programming language. We discuss object-oriented programming in general and give econometric examples coded in Ox. We also discuss some useful built-in classes that come with the Ox distribution.

  8. Econometric Estimates of Army Retention: Zones A, B, C, D and Retirement-Eligible, 1990-2004

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Moore, Carole; Hogan, Paul; Kirchner, Christian; Macklin, Patrick C; Greenston, Peter M

    2007-01-01

    .... To improve fit, we generated new econometric estimates by MOS, CMF and Zone using the more recent years of data, and conducted out-of-sample prediction testing to confirm the validity of the updated model.

  9. Econometric modelling of multiple self-reports of health states: The switch from EQ-5D-3L to EQ-5D-5L in evaluating drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-Alava, Mónica; Pudney, Stephen

    2017-09-01

    EQ-5D is used in cost-effectiveness studies underlying many important health policy decisions. It comprises a survey instrument describing health states across five domains, and a system of utility values for each state. The original 3-level version of EQ-5D is being replaced with a more sensitive 5-level version but the consequences of this change are uncertain. We develop a multi-equation ordinal response model incorporating a copula specification with normal mixture marginals to analyse joint responses to EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L in a survey of people with rheumatic disease, and use it to generate mappings between the alternative descriptive systems. We revisit a major cost-effectiveness study of drug therapies for rheumatoid arthritis, mapping the original EQ-5D-3L measure onto a 5L valuation basis. Working within a comprehensive, flexible econometric framework, we find that use of simpler restricted specifications can make very large changes to cost-effectiveness estimates with serious implications for decision-making. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  11. An Econometric Diffusion Model of Exchange Rate Movements within a Band - Implications for Interest Rate Differential and Credibility of Exchange Rate Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Rantala, Olavi

    1992-01-01

    The paper presents a model ofexchange rate movements within a specified exchange rate band enforced by central bank interventions. The model is based on the empirical observation that the exchange rate has usually been strictly inside the band, at least in Finland. In this model the distribution of the exchange rate is truncated lognormal from the edges towards the center of the band and hence quite different from the bimodal distribution of the standard target zone model. The model is estima...

  12. Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikita V. Artamonov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate, total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates. The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research

  13. An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter; Jiang, Liping; Rytter, Niels Gorm Malý

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development...... of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model's performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from...... this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior...

  14. Econometrics versus the Bookmakers. An econometric approach to sports betting

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, Sindre Michael

    2016-01-01

    Bruk av økonometri for å estimere sannsynligheter for ulike utfall i fotballkamper, over en Premier League sesong. Lager en modell basert på Bradley-Terry. Resultatet av estimeringene testes deretter ved å sammenligne med historisk odds satt av ulike spilltilbydere, og anvendes for hypotetiske innsatser. Modellen viser profitt.

  15. The Dynamics of Associations and Foundations in Romania. Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chelariu Gabriel

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the evolutionary trend of the associations and foundations in Romania in 1997 – 2015 period of time. We know that the NPO's activities come to cover the people's needs which cannot be supported by the state or by the private sector. More precisely, the major roles of the NPO sector are: supporting disadvantaged groups and the social causes, sustaining the role of "watchdog", and promoting the advocacy and public policy expertise. For this reason, we propose an econometric model that will be applied to establish the link between the number of the association and foundations, poverty rate, unemployment rate and the average monthly expenditure per household. We consider that the last three factors are relevant to the country’s social economy and, at the same time, they represent the main objectives of the EUROPE 2020 Strategy - a strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. The study is based on numerical data collected over a period of 12 years from 2003 to 2014. For the econometric model, we use IBM SPSS 22 software, in analyzing the collected data. After processing the data we will find a positive and significant relation between the number of associations and foundations (AF, the average monthly expenditure per household and the poverty rate. At the same time, we will find an insignificant relation between the number of associations and foundations and the unemployment rate.

  16. Essays in financial economics and econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Spada, Gabriele

    Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the

  17. The effects of the Danish saturated fat tax on food and nutrient intake and modelled health outcomes: an econometric and comparative risk assessment evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smed, S; Scarborough, P; Rayner, M; Jensen, J D

    2016-06-01

    The World Health Organisation recommends governments to consider the use of fiscal policies to promote healthy eating. However, there is very limited evidence of the effect of food taxation in a real-life setting, as most evidence is based on simulation studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of the Danish tax on saturated fat in terms of changes in nutritional quality of the diet, that is, changes in saturated fat consumption, as well as other non-targeted dietary measures, and to model the associated changes in mortality for different age groups and genders. On the basis of household scanner data, we estimate the impact of the tax on consumption of saturated fat, unsaturated fat, salt, fruit, vegetables and fibre. The resultant changes in dietary quality are then used as inputs into a comparative risk assessment model (PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl)) to estimate the effect of these changes on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and mortality. The tax resulted in a 4.0% reduction in saturated fat intake. Vegetable consumption increased, and salt consumption increased for most individuals, except younger females. We find a modelled reduction in mortality with 123 lives saved annually, 76 of them below 75 years equal to 0.4% of all deaths from NCDs. Modelling the effect of the changes in diet on health outcomes suggests that the saturated fat tax made a positive, but minor, contribution to public health in Denmark.

  18. GENERATION AND COST OF THE MEGAWATTS USING ECONOMETRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raimundo Juan Lora-Freyre

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work was conducted at the Energy Plant "Antonio Maceo" (Renté, in the province of Santiago de Cuba, under the Ministry of Energy and Mining. Aims to study the improvement of the planning process and as field of action the econometric modeling applied to the production of electricity. The overall objective of this research is to develop estimates of electricity generation and its total costs, and the analysis of the influence of production factors, using econometric techniques. In order to fulfill the above objective was used and perfected the "Information System for the Calculation of Production Estimates" (SICEP, which determines the response functions, considering the main factors influencing the electricity generation and its total costs. The results allow to show that the most influential factor in the generation of electricity is the fuel, it appreciated by analyzing the standardized b coefficient that reflects the highest value (0,39. Furthermore, the most influential factor in the total cost of generation is the additive, which shows a coefficient b standardized 0,51. The estimates given show the standard error values almost coincide with the standard deviation obtained in the reporting of error normality. The results will be useful to the process of production planning and securing materials from it. 

  19. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  20. Econometric analysis of the factors influencing forest acreage trends in the southeast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph J. Alig

    1986-01-01

    Econometric models of changes in land use acreages in the Southeast by physiographic region have been developed by pooling cross-section and time series data. Separate acreage equations have been estimated for the three major private forestland owner classes and the three major classes of nonforest land use. Observations were drawn at three or four different points in...

  1. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  2. Econometric analyses of microfinance credit group formation, contractual risks and welfare impacts in Northern Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berhane Tesfay, G.

    2009-01-01

    Key words
    Microfinance, joint liability, contractual risk, group formation, risk-matching, impact evaluation, Panel data econometrics, dynamic panel probit, trend models, fixed-effects, composite counterfactuals, propensity score matching, farm households, Ethiopia.

    Lack of

  3. An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

    1982-01-01

    In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

  4. Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Tito Moreira; Adolfo Sachsida; Loureiro Paulo

    2004-01-01

    Based on a sample of drivers in Brasilia's streets, this article investigates whether distraction explains traffic accidents. A probit model is estimated to determine the predictive power of several variables on traffic accidents. The main conclusion drawn from this study is that the proxies used to measure distraction, such as the use of cell phones and cigarette smoking in a moving vehicle, are significant factors in determining traffic accidents.

  5. Business Cycle Theory and Econometrics.

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory, Allan W; Smith, Gregor W

    1995-01-01

    We outline in turn criticisms made by econometricians of the methods used in empirical business-cycle research and then criticisms made by business-cycle researchers of some methods used by econometricians. The aim is to clarify and in some cases correct these criticisms. Overall there is no conflict in using rigourous statistical procedures to study modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We also provide a concise bibliography of recent research on statistical methods for busin...

  6. A theoretical framework of the good health status of Jamaicans: using econometric analysis to model good health status over the life course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, Paul A

    2009-07-01

    In recent times, the World Health Organization has increasing drawn attention to the pivotal role of social conditions in determining health status. The non-biological factors produced inequalities in health and need to be considered in health development. In spite of this, extensive review of health Caribbean revealed that no study has examined health status over the life course of Jamaicans. With the value of research in public health, this study is timely and will add value to understand the elderly, middle age and young adults in Jamaica. The aim of this study is to develop models that can be used to examine (or evaluate) health of Jamaicans, elderly, middle age and young adults. The current study used data from a cross-sectional survey which was conducted between July and October 2002. Stratified random probability sampling technique was used to collect the data from 25,018 respondents across the island. The non-response rate for the survey was 29.7% with 20.5% who did not respond to particular questions, 9.0% did not participated in the survey and another 0.2% was rejected due to data cleaning. Logistic regression analyses were used to model health status of Jamaicans, young adults, middle age adults and elderly. The predictive power of the model was tested using Omnibus Test of Model and Hosmer and Lemeshow (24) was used to examine goodness of fit of the model. The correlation matrix was examined in order to ascertain whether autocorrelation (or multi-collinearity) existed between variables. Using logistic regression analysis, eleven variables emerged as statistically significant predictors of current good health Status of Jamaicans (p<0.05). The factors are retirement income (95%CI=0.487-0.958), logged medical expenditure (95% Confidence Interval, CI =0.907-0.993), marital status (Separated or widowed or divorced: 95%CI=0.309-0.464; married: 95%CI=0.495-0.667; Never married), health insurance (95%CI=0.029-0.046), area of residence (other towns:, 95%CI=1

  7. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

    2015-01-01

    Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.

  8. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cliona Ni Mhurchu

    Full Text Available Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP in New Zealand.A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated.A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700 DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality. A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100 DPP (5.0%, and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700 DPP (6.8%. Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000 DPP (8.1% mortality annually. A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700 DPP annually (4.0%. Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms.Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.

  9. Approaches and methods for econometric analysis of market power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Grings, Michael

    2017-01-01

    , functional forms, estimation methods and derived estimates of the degree of market power. Thereafter, we use our framework to evaluate several structural models based on PTA and GIM to measure oligopsony power in the Ukrainian dairy industry. The PTA-based results suggest that the estimated parameters......This study discusses two widely used approaches in the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) literature and examines the strengths and weaknesses of the Production-Theoretic Approach (PTA) and the General Identification Method (GIM) for the econometric analysis of market power...... in agricultural and food markets. We provide a framework that may help researchers to evaluate and improve structural models of market power. Starting with the specification of the approaches in question, we compare published empirical studies of market power with respect to the choice of the applied approach...

  10. Informatics, Data Mining, Econometrics and Financial Economics: A Connection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractThis short communication reviews some of the literature in econometrics and financial economics that is related to informatics and data mining. We then discuss some of the research on econometrics and financial economics that could be extended to informatics and data mining beyond the

  11. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

  12. Currency Crisis in Sudan in 2012: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alamedin Bannaga, Dr.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The Sudan currency crisis in 2012 occurred when the Sudanese pound lost 66 percent of its value against the US dollar. In this article we adopt statistical methods such as the signal approach and econometric methods such as the Probit Model for identifying and evaluating the currency crisis. We utilize some economic indicators that have the ability to predict the crisis. We examined the capability of these indicators in generating an early warning system for Sudan currency crisis. The study confirms that the incidence of currency crisis in Sudan increases by increase in inflation rate, increase in import percentage of GDP, rise in claims against the central government, reduction in external reserves and existence of political crisis. Moreover, the study finds that the most important predictor of currency crisis in Sudan is decline in external reserves.

  13. ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostyslav Lytvyn

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.

  14. Appendix : airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-19

    This is the Appendix for Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity Report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrai...

  15. Non-standard spatial statistics and spatial econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Griffith, Daniel A

    2011-01-01

    Spatial statistics and spatial econometrics are recent sprouts of the tree "spatial analysis with measurement". Still, several general themes have emerged. Exploring selected fields of possible interest is tantalizing, and this is what the authors aim here.

  16. An econometric method for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures : applied to Malawi and Mauritius

    OpenAIRE

    Ehdaie, Jaber

    1990-01-01

    This paper develops an econometric technique that deals with shortcomings of existing methods for estimating the tax elasticity and the impact on revenues of discretionary tax measures. This model highlights the roles that discretionary tax measures and economic growth play in effecting the shift from the taxation of international trade to the taxation of domestic transactions. The objective of this study is twofold: first, to develop an econometric method of estimating built-in tax elasticit...

  17. Petroleum products price interactions on the world markets: an econometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maack, Laetitia de; Lantz, Frederic

    2012-09-01

    This study examines the relationship between crude oil and petroleum products prices in the European, Asian and North American markets. We develop an econometric model, based on the long term equilibrium between the prices, which takes into account the changes in the oil product demand trends. We explain price behaviors by the impact of the demand trends. Because the refining industry which transforms crude into petroleum products is a joint product industry, petroleum product pricing is affected by demand trends both in terms of quality and quantity. Consequently, the long term equilibrium between prices, estimated through a co-integration approach, are affected by several structural breaks. We also develop a panel econometric model which simultaneously takes into account the relative prices of ail world products towards one crude. Finally, the different results are compared to the marginal costs derived from an oil refining optimization model. This econometric modeling approach enables a better understanding of the long term equilibrium between prices of petroleum products and crude. (authors)

  18. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  19. Market Failure In African Agricultural Marketing Systems: An Econometric Testing And Analysis Of Market Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Gbolahan S. Osho

    2011-01-01

    The last few years have seen substantial revivals of interest in the determinants of economic growth in Africa, especially in the Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper provides an econometric model that help to examine the impact of market share, interest rate and non-economic factors such as external shocks, structural adjustment policies on the GDP of Sub-Saharan Africa. Economic development data covering the period of 1970 to 2004 was used in estimation with ordinary least square (OLS). The resul...

  20. Climate Change Adaptation via U.S. Land Use Transitions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2015-01-01

    Climate change, coupled with biofuels development and other factors may well be changing US land usage patterns. We use a spatial econometric approach to estimate the drivers of US land use transitions in recent years. We consider transitions between six major land uses: agricultural land, forest, grassland, water, urban, and other uses. To examine drivers, we use a two-step linearized, spatial, multinomial logit model and estimate land use transition probabilities. Our results indicate that ...

  1. Three essays on the econometric analysis of high frequency financial data

    OpenAIRE

    OOMEN, Roel C. A.

    2003-01-01

    Defence date: 13 June 2003 Examining Board: Prof. H. Peter Boswijk, University of Amsterdam ; Prof. Søren Johansen, University of Copenhagen, Supervisor ; Prof. Helmut Lütkepohl, EUI ; Prof. Stephen Taylor, Lancaster University This thesis is motivated by the observation that the time series properties of financial security prices can vary fundamentally with their sampling frequency. Econometric models developed for low frequency data may thus be unsuitable for high frequency data and v...

  2. International oil and natural gas demand projections: an econometric model for 2008-2030; Projecao das demandas mundiais de petroleo e de gas natural: aplicacao de um modelo agregado para o periodo 2008-2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Machado, Giovani; Aragao, Amanda; Valle, Ricardo Nascimento e Silva do [Empresa de Pesquisa Energetica (EPE), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    This study forecasts the world oil and gas demands for 2008-2030 by applying econometric formulations. The basic variables are world GDP and Brent price. The forecast assumptions are: sound world economic growth remains, despite falling rates during the period; Brent prices continue high, but in a lower level, in 2006 constant prices, in harmony with Energy Information Administration reference scenario. Findings show that, should assumptions prove to be correct, world oil and gas demands will reach 118 million bbl/d and 5 trillion cubic meters in 2030, respectively. In other words, world oil demand will grow at 1.4% per year, while world gas demand will increase at 2.5% per year. Although such figures are similar to those from other institutions (EIA, IEA and OPEC), structural changes in oil and gas markets, catalyzed by high oil prices and energy and environmental policies, may reduce forecast strength of the specifications proposed. (author)

  3. The Use of Nonparametric Kernel Regression Methods in Econometric Production Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard

    and nonparametric estimations of production functions in order to evaluate the optimal firm size. The second paper discusses the use of parametric and nonparametric regression methods to estimate panel data regression models. The third paper analyses production risk, price uncertainty, and farmers' risk preferences...... within a nonparametric panel data regression framework. The fourth paper analyses the technical efficiency of dairy farms with environmental output using nonparametric kernel regression in a semiparametric stochastic frontier analysis. The results provided in this PhD thesis show that nonparametric......This PhD thesis addresses one of the fundamental problems in applied econometric analysis, namely the econometric estimation of regression functions. The conventional approach to regression analysis is the parametric approach, which requires the researcher to specify the form of the regression...

  4. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  5. THE SIMON KUZNETS'S INFLUENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMETRICS AND ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyak

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available S. Kuznets's empirical and theoretical researches of the economical growth and economical development, made in 1940 – 1960th, became a main source for upgrading the econometrical models of those processes. The ideas of S. Kuznets gave a beginning for two outstanding directions of the applied literature. The first one deals with the Kuznets's cycles, that have approximately 20 years length period. The second direction appeared after the Kuznets's hypothesis about the unequal allocation of income in a process of economical growth. Kuznets made an assumption, that this inequality growth first and then rolls off. This dependence was named "Kuznets curve". An appearance of new works is caused by creation of new econometrical methods and models (panel data, nonstationarity and by putting forward new theoretical explanations of the phenomenon. Similarly to the original Kuznets curve in the early 1990th "Environmental Kuznets curve" was suggested. After appearance of that concept plenty of econometrical researches were done. On our opinion, the Kuznets's scientific heritage includes great unsolved potential. The usage of this potential will promote a further progress of economical theory.

  6. Firing the furnace? An econometric analysis of utilities' fuel choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauchmann, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate how the fuel mix of German electricity producers does react to fuel price changes. The empirical analysis is based on panel data (1968-1998) of major utilities. Two different aspects of fuel choice are distinguished: at the one hand, the construction of usually fuel-specific capacities for electric power generation, i.e. investment decisions that determine the fuel mix in the long run; at the other, fuel use conditional on existing generation capacities, i.e. short-run inter-fuel substitution. According to the results from panel unit root tests, both the econometric models which describe these two aspects are specified in changes rather than levels. The partly discrete nature of investment decisions is taken into account, by constructing a discrete model of capacity adjustment. Our estimation results suggest that the fuel mix of electric utilities is price inelastic either if long-term investment or short-term inter-fuel substitution is considered. Finally, the empirical results are used to predict the potential impacts of CO 2 emissions trading on fuel choice in the German electric power industry

  7. Firing the furnace? An econometric analysis of utilities' fuel choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tauchmann, H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper attempts to estimate how the fuel mix of German electricity producers does react to fuel price changes. The empirical analysis is based on panel data (1968-1998) of major utilities. Two different aspects of fuel choice are distinguished: at the one hand, the construction of usually fuel-specific capacities for electric power generation, i.e. investment decisions that determine the fuel mix in the long run; at the other, fuel use conditional on existing generation capacities, i.e. short-run inter-fuel substitution. According to the results from panel unit root tests, both the econometric models which describe these two aspects are specified in changes rather than levels. The partly discrete nature of investment decisions is taken into account, by constructing a discrete model of capacity adjustment. Our estimation results suggest that the fuel mix of electric utilities is price inelastic either if long-term investment or short-term inter-fuel substitution is considered. Finally, the empirical results are used to predict the potential impacts of CO 2 emissions trading on fuel choice in the German electric power industry. (Author)

  8. Tourism Economics in Sri Lanka: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasanna-Perera Lalith Welgamage

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sri Lanka aims to transform its tourism sector into one of the largest foreign exchange earners in 2016 by attracting 2.5 million high spending tourists. Tourism was ranked as the fifth largest source of foreign exchange earnings in 2012, and third largest in 2013 contributing 5.2 percent to total foreign earnings of the country. Further to this, the Sri Lankan government also identified tourism as a major hub of the country’s economy. Given the multi-dimensional impact the sector has on the country’s economy, it has to be examined systematically. This paper develops an econometric model based on the Cobb-Douglas function to analyze the relation between foreign exchange earnings, tourist arrivals, tourist prices, and tourist spending and direct employment in tourism. These variables of tourism are estimated utilizing model parameters such as R-Studio based on data from the sample period from 2002 to 2013. The formula presented in this study can be used by policy makers to calculate future foreign exchange earnings, employment, arrivals and prices related to tourism in Sri Lanka.

  9. Oil price volatility: An Econometric Analysis of the WTI Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hache, Emmanuel; Lantz, Frederic

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the oil price volatility in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) market in the US. By using statistical and econometric tools, we first attempt to identify the long-term relationship between WTI spot prices and the prices of futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). Subsequently we model the short-term dynamic between these two prices and this analysis points up several breaks. On this basis, a short term Markov Switching Vectorial Error Correction model (MS-VECM) with two distinct states (standard state and crisis state) has been estimated. Finally we introduce the volumes of transactions observed on the NYMEX for the WTI contracts and we estimate the influence of the non-commercial players. We conclude that the hypothesis of an influence of noncommercial players on the probability for being in the crisis state cannot be rejected. In addition, we show that the rise in liquidity of the first financial contracts, as measured by the volume of open interest, is a key element to understand the dynamics in market prices. (authors)

  10. Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcdonald, J F

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

  11. Young people and alcohol: an econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundborg, Petter

    2002-12-01

    To analyse the determinants of youth drinking behaviour within an economic -theoretical framework. The paper focuses especially on the effects of (a) having parents willing to supply alcohol, (b) living in a single-parent household, (c) having parents who are currently unemployed and (d) having received education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco. A Swedish cross-sectional survey data on 833 individuals aged 12-18 years was used to analyse the effects of the above variables on participation in drinking, frequency of drinking, intensity of drinking and binge drinking. Separate analyses were conducted for beer, wine and spirits. Care was taken in using appropriate econometric methods for the questions posed (negative binomial regression, censored regression and probit regression). Having parents willing to supply alcohol increased frequency (P < 0.05) of beer, wine and spirits consumption, intensity (P < 0.05) of wine, spirits and illicit alcohol consumption, and increased probabilities (P < 0.10) of binge drinking and participation in drinking (P < 0.05). No effects were seen from living in a single-parent household. Having received education about alcohol, narcotics and tobacco had a negative association only with intensity (P < 0.10) of beer consumption. Having a father who was currently unemployed was associated with an increased (P < 0.05) probability of binge drinking but a reduced (P < 0.05) frequency of wine consumption. The positive effect of having parents willing to supply alcohol could reflect that these individuals face lower acquisition costs or lower psychological costs in consumption. It could also reflect a price effect, if the individual receives the alcohol free from his or her parents.

  12. The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

    2015-06-01

    The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

  13. Using non-parametric methods in econometric production analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    Econometric estimation of production functions is one of the most common methods in applied economic production analysis. These studies usually apply parametric estimation techniques, which obligate the researcher to specify the functional form of the production function. Most often, the Cobb...... results—including measures that are of interest of applied economists, such as elasticities. Therefore, we propose to use nonparametric econometric methods. First, they can be applied to verify the functional form used in parametric estimations of production functions. Second, they can be directly used...

  14. Energy efficiency and econometric analysis of broiler production farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heidari, M.D.; Omid, M.; Akram, A.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the energy consumption per 1000 bird for the broiler production in Yazd province, Iran. The data were collected from 44 farms by using a face-to-face questionnaire method during January–February 2010. The collected information was analyzed using descriptive statistics, economic analysis and stochastic frontier production function. The production technology of the farmer was assumed to be specified by the Cobb–Douglas (CD) production function. Total input energy was found to be 186,885.87 MJ (1000 bird) −1 while the output energy was 27,461.21 MJ (1000 bird) −1 . The values of specific energy and energy ratio were calculated at 71.95 MJ kg −1 and 0.15, respectively. The sensitivity of energy inputs was estimated using the marginal physical productivity (MPP) method. The MPP value showed the high impact of human labor and machinery energy inputs on output energy. Returns to scale (RTS) values for broiler were found to be 0.96; thus, there prevailed a decreasing RTS for the estimated model. The net return was found positive, as 1386.53 $ (1000 bird) −1 and the benefit to cost ratio from broiler production was calculated to be 1.38. The study revealed that production of meat was profitable in the studied area. -- Highlights: ► We determined the energy use efficiency (EUE) for the broiler production as 0.15, indicating inefficiency use of energy in these farms. ► Total input and output energies were found to be 186,885.87 MJ (1000 bird) −1 and 27,461.21 MJ (1000 bird) −1 , respectively. ► Cobb–Douglas (CD) frontier production function was found useful in developing econometric model for broiler production. ► The results of budgetary analysis indicate production of meat in broiler farms is profitable in the studied area.

  15. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  16. Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Amaresh

    2010-01-01

    This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

  17. Time Series Econometrics for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    The field of econometrics largely started with time series analysis because many early datasets were time-series macroeconomic data. As the field developed, more cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets were collected, which today dominate the majority of academic empirical research. In nonacademic (private sector, central bank, and governmental)…

  18. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IBUKUN

    1Onoja, A. O. , 2Achike, A. I. and 3Ajibade, T. B.*. 1Department of ... Bank Data Base (1971-2011) which were subjected to econometric tests before applying the ... workforce is involved in agriculture and the sector makes up 32% of the continent‟s GDP. (Halilu ... solving the problems of unemployment and poverty. One of ...

  19. Recent Developments in Financial Economics and Econometrics: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); D.E. Allen (David); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractResearch papers in empirical finance and financial econometrics are among the most widely cited, downloaded and viewed articles in the discipline of Finance. The special issue presents several papers by leading scholars in the field on “Recent Developments in Financial Economics and

  20. Energy demand, substitution and environmental taxation: An econometric analysis of eight subsectors of the Danish economy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2017-01-01

    in a more environmental-friendly direction. For eight subsectors of the Danish economy, time series (1966–2011) are modeled by means of partial Cointegrated VARs. Long-run demand relations are identified for all subsectors and robust price elasticities are supported in five cases. The results are used......This research contains an econometric analysis of energy demand in trade and industry which allows for substitution between electricity and other energy carriers when relative prices change. The presence of substitution suggests that taxation can be a means of changing the energy input mix...

  1. AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS ON THE ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEVDA YAPRAKLI

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there is a relationship among foreign direct investment and some of the macroeconomics variables in Turkey. For this purpose for the period of 1970-2006, the relationships among foreign direct investment and GDP, labour cost, real exchange rate, openness and foreign trade deficit are econometrically analyzed by employing multivariate cointegration analysis and error correction model. According to the results, FDI is positively effected by GDP and openness, and negatively by labour cost, real exchange rate ve foreign trade deficit variables. Morever, bi-directional causality is observed among FDI and GDP and real exchange rate.

  2. The econometrics of violence, terrorism and scenarios for peace in Colombia from 1950 to 2019

    OpenAIRE

    Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

    2006-01-01

    Abstract: This paper continues a research born in 1993 as a consequence of the concern regarding the increase in Colombian violence, and especially for its escalation during the 1990’s, its objective is to create an econometric model capable of forecasting the path of terrorist murder under different policy options and helping the country in the design of a state policy drawing the lineaments for reaching the pacification of the country. In the first part I use The Beveridge and Nelson decom...

  3. A spatial econometric analysis of land-use change with land cover trends data: an application to the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Lewis; Ralph J. Alig

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a plot-level spatial econometric land-use model and estimates it with U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends (LCT) geographic information system panel data for the western halves of the states of Oregon and Washington. The discrete-choice framework we use models plot-scale choices of the three dominant land uses in this region: forest, agriculture...

  4. EXPLANATORY ECONOMETRIC METHOD FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE BEHAVIOR MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosca Constantin

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Our paper, entitled "Explanatory Econometric Method for the Analysis of the Behaviour Management in Organizations in Romania" reflects the wide opening of econometric modelling to quantify the Romanian management issues, representing a practical guidance on multiple recovery plans to fund the huge data collected as part COMOR project launched by the Scientific Society of Management in Romania to characterize the behaviour of managers in the Romanian economic organizations. Construction of these models offers possibilities for complex analysis, descriptive and factorial sequence of firms, counties, geographical areas, but comprehensive summary of studies on the macroeconomic level. Scientific knowledge through a comprehensive assessment of managerial behaviour in the most representative types of business organizations of all geographical areas of the country are, in the context of globalization, one way to prevent surprises market economy. Thus, the results of this exploratory research will provide economic environment, and not only strong argument for anticipating decisions in order to choose the best economic policies, with beneficial effects as conclusive and with as few undesirable implications. Research based on the opinions of thousands of respondents approved, processed through a variety of instruments subject of extensive econometric and interdisciplinary interpretation, psycho-socio-economic management, is a modest contribution to the affirmation of local scientific research that aim for theoretical and applied Romanian school of management by defining: - knowledge of behaviour management in all types of business organizations in Romania; - identifying the Romanian space dimensions of organizational culture as a reflection of the peculiarities of national culture and especially of the main ethnic-specific subcultures; - profile defining effective manager and leader of excellence in terms of character traits and their behaviour.

  5. Using non-parametric methods in econometric production analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Czekaj, Tomasz Gerard; Henningsen, Arne

    2012-01-01

    by investigating the relationship between the elasticity of scale and the farm size. We use a balanced panel data set of 371~specialised crop farms for the years 2004-2007. A non-parametric specification test shows that neither the Cobb-Douglas function nor the Translog function are consistent with the "true......Econometric estimation of production functions is one of the most common methods in applied economic production analysis. These studies usually apply parametric estimation techniques, which obligate the researcher to specify a functional form of the production function of which the Cobb...... parameter estimates, but also in biased measures which are derived from the parameters, such as elasticities. Therefore, we propose to use non-parametric econometric methods. First, these can be applied to verify the functional form used in parametric production analysis. Second, they can be directly used...

  6. Application of econometric and ecology analysis methods in physics software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Min Cheol; Hoff, Gabriela; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Kim, Sung Hun; Grazia Pia, Maria; Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Saracco, Paolo

    2017-10-01

    Some data analysis methods typically used in econometric studies and in ecology have been evaluated and applied in physics software environments. They concern the evolution of observables through objective identification of change points and trends, and measurements of inequality, diversity and evenness across a data set. Within each analysis area, various statistical tests and measures have been examined. This conference paper summarizes a brief overview of some of these methods.

  7. Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

    1998-01-01

    We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

  8. Teacher Salaries and Teacher Unions: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    OpenAIRE

    John V. Winters

    2011-01-01

    The author uses a spatial econometric framework to examine the determinants of teacher salaries in the United States, including union activity in the teachers' own and in neighboring districts, teacher salaries in nearby districts, and other school district characteristics such as size and student-teacher ratios. Using the 1999-2000 Schools and Staffing Survey as well as the School District Demographic System and Bureau of Labor Statistics data sets, he finds that union activity increases sal...

  9. Central Bank Financial Strength and Policy Performance; An Econometric Evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Stella; Ulrich H Klueh

    2008-01-01

    The financial health of central banks and its relation to policy outcomes has recently been recognized as an important policy issue. While case study evidence clearly indicates that weak central bank finances can hamper effective policy implementation, the question of whether central bank financial strength influences policy performance remains controversial. This is due, in part, to a lack of econometric evidence. The paper presents a first step toward filling this gap, by providing a quanti...

  10. An econometrics view of worldwide fossil fuel consumption and the role of US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2008-01-01

    Crude oil, coal and gas, known as fossil fuels, play a crucial role in the global economy. This paper proposes new econometrics modelling to demonstrate the trend of fossil fuels consumption. The main variables affecting consumption trends are: world reserves, the price of fossil fuels, US production and US net imports. All variables have been analysed individually for more than half a century. The research found that while the consumption of fossil fuels worldwide has increased trends in the US production and net imports have been dependent on the type of fossil fuels. Most of the US coal and gas production has been for domestic use, which is why it does not have a strong influence on worldwide fossil fuel prices. Moreover, the reserves of fossil fuels have not shown any diminution during the last couple of decades and predictions that they were about to run out are not substantiated. The nominal and real price of fossil fuels was found to change depending on the type. Finally, estimates of three econometric models for the consumption of fossil fuels from 1949 to 2006 are presented which identify the effects of significant variables

  11. An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li ZhiDong [Nagaoka University of Technology, Nagaoka City (Japan). Dept. of Management and Information System Science

    2003-09-01

    An integrated econometric model named the 3Es-Model, consisting of macroeconomic sub-model, energy sub-model and environment sub-model was developed and used to perform a long-term simulation study for China. In the coming 30 years, the potential of GDP growth will be around 7% annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security, air protection, and CO{sub 2} emission reductions. For the sustainable development, more comprehensive measures should be adopted, including improvements in energy efficiency, more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources, imposing carbon tax, development of clean coal technology, establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling, enforcement of air protection, etc. 17 refs., 4 figs., 10 tabs.

  12. Econometric Studies of Stock Market Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    This thesis consists of three sefcontained essays, all centering around the topic of stock market behaviour. The papers focus on the empirical performance of a number of asset pricing models, all attempting to quantify and price asset risk. We look at how well these models actually do in describing...... the historic behaviour of the stock market, allowing us to get further insight into what drives the markes....

  13. Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

    2017-10-01

    Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

  14. A Micro-Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Unsustainable Consumption in The Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.; Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2004-01-01

    Recently, much attention has been given to the notion of 'sustainable consumption'. Whereas environmental economics traditionally has focused environmental policy analysis on producers, this new notion broadens the perspective to include environmental policies aimed at directly influencing consumer decisions regarding buying, using, and recycling products. This could suggest policies that link not only to price incentives, but also and especially to persuasive instruments, such as education and information provision. These policies might take into account certain characteristics of households, such as lifestyle and family size. This article presents a first econometric analysis of consumption in the context of environmental sustainability. Relationships between different types of household expenditures and a range of household characteristics are assessed, based on a large micro data set of households for the Netherlands. Use is made of various demand models and econometric techniques to adequately address theoretical and technical issues involved. The article ends with a discussion of the implications of the results for environmental policy directed at stimulating sustainable consumption

  15. ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CEREAL DEMAND IN MOROCCO USING THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Essaten

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Following up the agricultural policy in Morocco and enforcing it, the new strategy Green Morocco Plan (GMP launched in 2008 also stressed on the cereals’ supply. Meantime, despite their significant nutritional role, little attention has been paid to the demand side. This paper intends to perform an econometric analysis of the demand of five main cereals - Common wheat, Durum wheat, Barley, Corn and Rice- using a linear version of the flexible Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS model. A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR approach has been applied to the demand system equations with annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2015. At the overall, regular econometric restrictions (stability, structural separability, validity, etc. have been respected our results suggest that the relations of complementarity or substitution are not determining in the cereal bundle in Morocco. Also, the Moroccan consumer behavior is characterized by a strong sensibility towards common wheat price’s changes and by a difficult access for the durum wheat as it is considered as luxury good.

  16. Essays on high frequency financial econometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yang, X.

    2015-01-01

    It has long been demonstrated that continuous-time methods are powerful tools in financial modeling. Yet only in recent years, their counterparts in empirical analysis—high frequency econometrics—began to emerge with the availability of intra-day data and relevant statistical tools. This

  17. An econometric time-series analysis of global CO2 concentrations and emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.C.; Labys, W.C.; Eliste, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper extends previous work on the econometric modelling of CO 2 concentrations and emissions. The importance of such work rests in the fact that models of the Cohen-Labys variety represent the only alternative to scientific or physical models of CO 2 accumulations whose parameters are inferred rather than estimated. The stimulation for this study derives from the recent discovery of oscillations and cycles in the net biospheric flux of CO 2 . A variety of time series tests is thus used to search for the presence of normality, stationarity, cyclicality and stochastic processes in global CO 2 emissions and concentrations series. Given the evidence for cyclicality of a short-run nature in the spectra of these series, both structural time series and error correction model are applied to confirm the frequency and amplitude of these cycles. Our results suggest new possibilities for determining equilibrium levels of CO 2 concentrations and subsequently revising stabilization policies. (Author)

  18. An econometric study on China's economy, energy and environment to the year 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Zhidong

    2003-01-01

    An integrated econometric model consisting of macroeconomic sub-model, energy sub-model and environment sub-model was developed and used to perform a long-term simulation study for China. In the coming 30 years, the potential of GDP growth will be around 7% annually and the continuation of rapid economic growth could result in insurmountable difficulties for energy security, air protection, and CO 2 emission reductions. For the sustainable development, more comprehensive measures should be adopted, including improvements in energy efficiency, more rapid energy switching from coal to natural gas and renewable energy sources, imposing carbon tax, development of clean coal technology, establishment of strategic petroleum stockpiling, enforcement of air protection, etc

  19. On Multivariate Methods in Robust Econometrics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kalina, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 1 (2012), s. 69-82 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M06014 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : least weighted squares * heteroscedasticity * multivariate statistics * model selection * diagnostics * computational aspects Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.561, year: 2012 http://www.vse.cz/pep/abstrakt.php?IDcl=411

  20. AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH ABOUT VOLUNTARY TURNOVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ADALET EREN

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes individual and organizational variables that affect voluntary turnover are determined in the special defence and security companies. A binomial logistic regression model is used to estimate voluntary turnover.  Binomial Logistic regression, reliability test (scale alfa, variance (ANOVA, Post-hoc/Tukey, correlation (Pearson and other basic statistical techniques  with SPSS 13 statistical packet program was used in the analyzes ofresearch data. The study finds that; situation of suppose working, number of child, number of death child, number of home’s moving, support of rent, total monthly income of household, last work’s region, number of prizes, affect voluntary turnover are determined.

  1. Wheat yield dynamics: a structural econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Afsin; Akdi, Yilmaz; Arslan, Fahrettin

    2007-10-15

    In this study we initially have tried to explore the wheat situation in Turkey, which has a small-open economy and in the member countries of European Union (EU). We have observed that increasing the wheat yield is fundamental to obtain comparative advantage among countries by depressing domestic prices. Also the changing structure of supporting schemes in Turkey makes it necessary to increase its wheat yield level. For this purpose, we have used available data to determine the dynamics of wheat yield by Ordinary Least Square Regression methods. In order to find out whether there is a linear relationship among these series we have checked each series whether they are integrated at the same order or not. Consequently, we have pointed out that fertilizer usage and precipitation level are substantial inputs for producing high wheat yield. Furthermore, in respect for our model, fertilizer usage affects wheat yield more than precipitation level.

  2. ECONOMETRIC INEFFICIENCY ESTIMATES IN A COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Bernard Bastiaan Rivera Rivera

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available

    The objective of this paper is to apply a Cobb-Douglas, Translog Stochastic Production Function and Data Envelopment Analysis – particularly the Malmquist index - in order to estimate increases or decreases of inefficiencies over time as well as the sources of TFP changes for the main Brazilian grain crops - namely, rice, beans, maize, soybeans and wheat - throughout the most recent data available comprising the period 2001-2006. According to the Cobb Douglas model, the greatest elasticity presented is that of harvested area, followed by agricultural credit and limestone. The Translog production function presents an amelioration of aggregate productivity over time and, in a decreasing order, the Brazilian regions that have presented the greatest relative degree of efficiency are the Northeast, North, Southeast, South and Center-West regions. The results indicate that, although there have been positive changes in TFP for the sample analyzed, a decline in the use of technology has been evidenced for all the principal Brazilian grain crops between 2005/2007 – period in which we observe a remarkable downfall in the use of inputs in Brazilian agriculture.

  3. Indirect Taxes in Romania – an Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Penu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Indirect taxes have a significant weight in the GDP. Statistical data reveals that the new states that joined the EU in its funding sources to the greatest extent through indirect taxes. They reveal, on the one hand, reducing the tax burden on the producer, and on the other hand, the difficulty faced by the country in direct tax collection, but also some problems of social nature. This article proposes an econometric analysis of the relationship between indirect taxes and household final consumption expenditure.

  4. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH OF HETEROSKEDASTICITY ON FINANCIAL TIME SERIES IN A GENERAL FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FELICIA RAMONA BIRĂU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the diagnostic tests for detecting heteroskedasticity on financial time series. In financial econometrics, heteroskedasticity is generally associated with cross sectional data but can also be identified modeling time series data. The presence of heteroscedasticity in financial time series can be caused by certain specific factors, like a model misspecification, inadequate data transformation or as a result of certain outliers. Heteroskedasticity arise when the homoskedasticity assumption is violated. Testing for the presence of heteroskedasticity in financial time is performed by applying diagnostic test, such as : Breusch-Pagan LM test, White’s test, Glesjer LM test, Harvey-Godfrey LM test, Park LM test and Goldfeld-Quand test.

  5. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Regional distribution of photovoltaic deployment in the UK and its determinants: A spatial econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye; Yildirim, Julide; Connor, Peter M.

    2015-01-01

    Photovoltaic (PV) panels offer significant potential for contributing to the UK's energy policy goals relating to decarbonisation of the energy system, security of supply and affordability. The substantive drop in the cost of panels since 2007, coupled with the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Scheme in 2010, has resulted in a rapid increase in installation of PV panels in the UK, from 26.5MWp in 2009 to over 5GW by the end of 2014. Yet there has been no comprehensive analysis of the determinants of PV deployment in the UK. This paper addresses this gap by employing spatial econometrics methods to a recently available data set at a fine geographical detail. Following a traditional regression analysis, a general to specific approach has been adopted where spatial variations in the relationships have been examined utilising the spatial Durbin model using the cross-sectional data relating to the UK NUTS level 3 data. Empirical results indicate that demand for electricity, population density, pollution levels, education level of households and housing types are among the factors that affect PV uptake in a region. Moreover Lagrange Multiplier test results indicate that the spatial Durbin model may be properly applied to describe the PV uptake relationship in the UK as there are significant regional spillover effects. - Highlights: • Spatial econometrics models applied to UK PV installation for the first time • Significant regional spillover effects are apparent. • Smaller households in highly polluted, less dense areas are the early adopters. • Strong substitution effect as high electricity spending induces PV installations. • Solar irradiation data are found to be significant.

  7. Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

  8. Podemos prever a taxa de cambio brasileira? Evidência empírica utilizando inteligência computacional e modelos econométricos Can we forecast Brazilian exchange rates? Empirical evidences using computational intelligence and econometric models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro dos Santos Coelho

    2008-12-01

    evidence that these computational intelligence models are able to provide a more accurate forecast given their capacity for capturing nonlinearities and other stylized facts of financial time series. Thus, this paper investigates the hypothesis that the mathematical models of multilayer perception, radial basis function neural networks (NN, and the Takagi-Sugeno (TS fuzzy systems are able to provide a more accurate out-of-sample forecast than the traditional AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA and ARMA Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARMA-GARCH models. Using a series of Brazilian exchange rate (R$/US$ returns with 15 minutes, 60 minutes, 120 minutes, daily and weekly basis, the one-step-ahead forecast performance is compared. The results indicate that forecast performance is strongly related to the series' frequency, possibly due to nonlinearities effects. Besides, the forecasting evaluation shows that NN models perform better than the ARMA and ARMA-GARCH ones. In the trade strategy based on forecasts, NN models achieved higher returns when compared to a buy-and-hold strategy and to the other models considered in this study.

  9. Econometric estimation of investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms using hyperbolic distance functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Fabricius, Ole; Olsen, Jakob Vesterlund

    2014-01-01

    Based on a theoretical microeconomic model, we econometrically estimate investment utilization, adjustment costs, and technical efficiency in Danish pig farms based on a large unbalanced panel dataset. As our theoretical model indicates that adjustment costs are caused both by increased inputs...... of investment activities by the maximum likelihood method so that we can estimate the adjustment costs that occur in the year of the investment and the three following years. Our results show that investments are associated with significant adjustment costs, especially in the year in which the investment...

  10. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

  11. Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro-Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassios, Jason; Giesecke, James A

    2018-04-01

    Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty). Assembling shocks describing the physical impacts of a terrorist incident is relatively straightforward, since estimates are either readily available or plausibly inferred. However, assembling shocks describing behavioral impacts is more difficult. Values for behavioral variables (e.g., required rates of return) are typically inferred or estimated by indirect means. Generally, this has been achieved via reference to extraneous literature or ex ante surveys. This article explores a new method. We elucidate the magnitude of CGE-relevant structural shifts implicit in econometric evidence on terrorist incidents, with a view to informing future ex ante event assessments. Ex post econometric studies of terrorism by Blomberg et al. yield macro econometric equations that describe the response of observable economic variables (e.g., GDP growth) to terrorist incidents. We use these equations to determine estimates for relevant (unobservable) structural and policy variables impacted by terrorist incidents, using a CGE model of the United States. This allows us to: (i) compare values for these shifts with input assumptions in earlier ex ante CGE studies; and (ii) discuss how future ex ante studies can be informed by our analysis. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Econometric Modeling: An Application to the Demand for Electricity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical results show an inverse relationship between real appliance purchase price, the real per capita income and the demand for electricity. Also the rate of population growth rate as a proxy for electricity consumers appears to be insignificant. This reveals the clear fact that the demand for electricity is greater than ...

  13. Special Issue on Using Econometrics for Assessing Economic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2009-01-01

    Two methodological approaches to empirical economics which are labelled ‘theory first' versus ‘reality first' are introduced building the background for the discussion of the individual contributions to this special issue.......Two methodological approaches to empirical economics which are labelled ‘theory first' versus ‘reality first' are introduced building the background for the discussion of the individual contributions to this special issue....

  14. Cost savings from nuclear regulatory reform: An econometric model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Canterbery, E.R.; Johnson, B.; Reading, D.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear-generated power touted in the 1950s as someday being open-quotes too cheap to meterclose quotes got dismissed in the 1980s as incapable of being both safe and cost effective. Today, less than 20 percent of American's electricity is nuclear-generated, no new plants are planned or on order, and some of the earliest units are scheduled for decommissioning within the next decade. Even so, interest in nuclear power has been revived by increasing energy demands, concerns about global warming, and the uncertainty surrounding oil resources in the Persian Gulf. As a long-term alternative to fossil fuels, atomic energy offers the important advantages of clean air and domestic availability of fuel. But these advantages will count for little unless and until the costs of nuclear power can be seen as reasonable. The authors premise is that the relevant costs are those of providing safe and environmentally clean electric energy. To the extent that increased costs have resulted from increasingly stringent regulations, they reflect the internalization of external costs. Indeed, the external costs of nuclear power (particularly safety and environmental protection) have been internalized to a greater degree than with most alternative fuel sources used by electric utilities. Nuclear construction costs are properly compared with those of alternative sources only after the latter are adjusted for environmental damage and endangerment, including, as examples, the costs of oil spills, of building double-hulled tankers, and of building off-shore offloading facilities. A shift to nuclear sources could reduce these costs whereas it would increase disposal costs for radioactive materials. The authors contend that a better understanding of nuclear plant construction costs is pivotal to a balanced evaluation of the merits of uranium relative to other fuel choices. 12 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  15. Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 31, 2014 : technical summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-31

    This is a technical summary of the Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity main report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with anoth...

  16. Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

    2013-07-01

    A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

  17. Econometric Analysis of Effects of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Usage on Tomato Yield in Tokat, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilge Gözener

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the effects of nitrogen fertilizer application on tomato yield by using econometric models. The data obtained by questionnaire from 53 farmers who produce tomatoes in Tokat province constitute the main material of the study. The Simple Random Sampling Method was used to determine the sample size with a 90% confidence interval and 10% margin of error. Nine models were tried to determine the best model to explain the effect of nitrogenous fertilizer usage in tomato cultivation. The data in the models were used to calculate the growers’ optimal fertilizer amount of use (physical optimum and economical optimum values were calculated and the results were compared to the ones suggested by the experts. As a result, through the statistical studies, quadratic model was found to be the most suitable one. It has been determined that tomato farmers use less (10.54 kg da-1 or excess (23.48 kg da-1 N fertilizer than the level at which economic optimum is achieved.

  18. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  19. Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serje, Juliana; Bertram, Melanie Y; Brindley, Callum; Lauer, Jeremy A

    2018-01-01

    Human resources are consistently cited as a leading contributor to health care costs; however the availability of internationally comparable data on health worker earnings for all countries is a challenge for estimating the costs of health care services. This paper describes an econometric model using cross sectional earnings data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) that the World Health Organizations (WHO)-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-effective programme (CHOICE) has used to prepare estimates of health worker earnings (in 2010 USD) for all WHO member states. The ILO data contained 324 observations of earnings data across 4 skill levels for 193 countries. Using this data, along with the assumption that data were missing not at random, we used a Heckman two stage selection model to estimate earning data for each of the 4 skill levels for all WHO member states. It was possible to develop a prediction model for health worker earnings for all countries for which GDP data was available. Health worker earnings vary both within country due to skill level, as well as across countries. As a multiple of GDP per capita, earnings show a negative correlation with GDP-that is lower income countries pay their health workers relatively more than higher income countries. Limited data on health worker earnings is a limiting factor in estimating the costs of global health programmes. It is hoped that these estimates will support robust health care intervention costings and projections of resources needs over the Sustainable Development Goal period.

  20. Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Biodiversity Risk in the US: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Berrens

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates whether the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC relationship is supported for a measure of biodiversity risk and economic development across the United States (US. Using state-level data for all 48 contiguous states, biodiversity risk is measured using a Modified Index (MODEX. This index is an adaptation of a comprehensive National Biodiversity Risk Assessment Index. The MODEX differs from other measures in that it is takes into account the impact of human activities and conservation measures. The econometric approach includes corrections for spatial autocorrelation effects, which are present in the data. Modeling estimation results do not support the EKC hypothesis for biodiversity risk in the US. This finding is robust over ordinary least squares, spatial error, and spatial lag models, where the latter is shown to be the preferred model. Results from the spatial lag regression show that a 1% increase in human population density is associated with about a 0.19% increase in biodiversity risk. Spatial dependence in this case study explains 30% of the variation, as risk in one state spills over into adjoining states. From a policy perspective, this latter result supports the need for coordinated efforts at state and federal levels to address the problem of biodiversity loss.

  1. Determinants of Debt: An Econometric Analysis Based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalis Petrides

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This work is based on the Cyprus Survey of Consumer Finances (CySCF and focuses on the investigation of home secured loans and consumer credit card outstanding balances among Cypriot families. The CySCF runs on a triennial basis with the first database created in 1999 (CySCF1999. According to CySCF1999 and CySCF2002, the overall participation in home secured debt among all families declined from 29.95% in 1999 and 29.77% in 2002 to 25.77% in 2005 (CySCF2005. Credit cards were introduced in the early 1980s and grew significantly during the 1990s. The overall percentage of Cypriot households holding credit cards is estimated at 41.7% for 1999, 50% for 2002, and 48% for 2005. This work deals with the econometric analysis of home secured loans and consumer credit card outstanding balances and it provides results based on logit models. The main variables selected for home secured loans are the age, family status, specific attitude toward credit, employment status, and income. The resulting model exhibits a polynomial behaviour of degree two with respect to age. The main variables for consumer credit card balances are the age, education, general attitude, income code, home secured loans and riskiness. Worth noting is the high probability of having credit card balances for those households where the economically dominant unit is of low age with a positive attitude towards credit.

  2. Analysis of Regional Unemployment in Russia and Germany: Spatial-Econometric Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Vyacheslavovna Semerikova

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The study was supported by the Government of the Russian Federation, grant No.11.G34.31.0059. This paper analyzes the regional unemployment in Russia and Germany in 2005-2010 and addresses issues of choosing the right specification of spatial-econometric models. The analysis based on data of 75 Russian and 370 German regions showed that for Germany the choice of the spatial weighting matrix has a more significant influence on the parameter estimates than for Russia. Presumably this is due to stronger linkages between regional labor markets in Germany compared to Russia. The authors also proposed an algorithm for choosing between spatial matrices and demonstrated the application of this algorithm on simulated Russian data. The authors found that 1 the deviation of the results from the true ones increases when the spatial dependence between regions is higher and 2 the matrix of inverse distances is more preferable than the boundary one for the analysis of regional unemployment in Russia (because of the lower value of the mean squared error. The authors are also planning to apply the proposed algorithm for simulated data of Germany. These results allow accounting the spatial dependence more correctly when modeling regional unemployment which is very important for making proper regional policy

  3. California demand and supply of crude oil: An econometric analysis with projections to 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibegbulam, B.N.

    1991-01-01

    Forecast of California domestic crude oil supply requires the forecasts of California crude oil production and supply from Alaska. Future California crude oil production is forecast with an econometric model that postulates production as a function of reserves and reserves as a function of crude oil prices and exploration and development costs. Future supplies from Alaska are obtained by subtracting forecasts of Alaskan crude oil demand and shipments to the States of Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington from Alaskan North Slope crude oil production forecasts. A two-stage process was used to forecast future California crude oil demand. In the first stage, the demand for refined crude oil products was predicted with a single-equation double logarithmic rational-expectations dynamic model. In the second stage, the total demands obtained in the first stage were converted into a crude oil equivalent. It was found that the current surplus of domestic crude oil in California will end in 1994. Thereafter, California crude oil imports will sharply increase

  4. Quality competition in local hospital markets: some econometric evidence from the period 1982-1988.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirikos, T N

    1992-05-01

    This study examines whether American hospitals continued to engage in non-price or quality competition over the recent past as health care markets underwent fundamental structural changes and the economic incentives facing hospital managers were correspondingly altered. It also investigates the degree to which such rivalrous behavior contributes to losses in economic welfare. An econometric model of quality competition is specified that tests, among other things, for the effect of spending by the hospital to enhance the quality of output on annual changes in its share of the local (inpatient) market as well as the effects of competitive conditions in the local market on the annual sum spent on quality enhancement. The model is estimated with panel data on 195 acute care hospitals in the State of Florida for the years 1982-1988. The results suggest that quality competitive behavior continued unabated over this period and that it was stimulated as much by the growth in physician supply and alternative delivery mechanisms as it was by other competing hospitals in the local market. Furthermore, the results show that quality competition yields some inefficiency or waste, but much of it also meets the test of the market.

  5. Self-insurance and worksite alcohol programs: an econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenkel, D S

    1997-03-01

    The worksite is an important point of access for alcohol treatment and prevention, but not all firms are likely to find offering alcohol programs profitable. This study attempts to identify at a conceptual and empirical level factors that are important determinants of the profitability of worksite alcohol programs. A central question considered in the empirical analysis is whether firms' decisions about worksite alcohol programs are related to how employee group health insurance is provided. The data used are from the 1992 National Survey of Worksite Health Promotion Activities (N = 1,389-1,412). The econometric analysis focuses on measures of whether the surveyed firms offer Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs), individual counseling, group classes and resource materials regarding alcohol and other substance abuse. Holding other factors constant, the probability that a self-insured firm offers an EAP is estimated to be 59%, compared to 51% for a firm that purchases market group health insurance for its employees. Unionized worksites and larger worksites are also found to be more likely to offer worksite alcohol programs, compared to nonunionized smaller worksites. Worksites with younger work-forces are less likely than those with older employees to offer alcohol programs. The empirical results are consistent with the conceptual framework from labor economics, since self-insurance is expected to increase firms' demand for worksite alcohol programs while large worksite is expected to reduce the average program cost. The role of union status and workforce age suggests it is important to consider workers' preferences for the programs as fringe benefits. The results also suggest that the national trend towards self-insurance may be leading to more prevention and treatment of worker alcohol-related problems.

  6. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  7. Quality based payment program and milk quality in dairy cooperatives of Southern Brazil: an econometric analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Garcia Botaro

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Programs designed to enhance milk quality have been used to motivate dairy farmers to improve the quality of the raw milk they produce. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between a milk quality payment program and four indicative variables of milk quality, by testing bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC, bulk tank total bacterial count (TBC, fat (FAT and protein (PROT percentages over three years in four dairy cooperatives in Southern Brazil. We used a multiple regression econometric model estimated from market data of milk delivered by farmers to the cooperatives. Bulk tank milk samples (n = 19,644 were monthly collected. The data set was analyzed for the effects of seasonality, average daily volume of milk, the award/penalty, producer, and cooperatives on SCC, TBC, FAT and PROT. Results suggested an association between the adoption of a payment program based on milk quality and the reduction of SCC and TBC. Nevertheless, the program seems to have not contributed to increase fat and protein milk percentages. This information may help the dairy industry in developing countries to conceive strategies to enhance overall milk quality.

  8. The core determinants of health expenditure in the African context: some econometric evidence for policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murthy, Vasudeva N R; Okunade, Albert A

    2009-06-01

    This paper, using cross-sectional data from 44 (83% of all) African countries for year 2001, presents econometric model estimates linking real per-capita health expenditure (HEXP) to a host of economic and non-economic factors. The empirical results of OLS and robust LAE estimators indicate that real per-capita GDP (PRGDP) and real per-capita foreign aid (FAID) resources are both core and statistically significant correlates of HEXP. Our empirical results suggest that health care in the African context is technically, a necessity rather than a luxury good (for the OECD countries). This suggests that the goal of health system in Africa is primarily 'physiological' or 'curative' rather than 'caring' or 'pampering'. The positive association of HEXP with FAID hints that external resource inflows targeting health could be instrumental for spurring economic progress in good policy environments. Most African countries until the late 1990s experienced economic and political instability, and faced stringent structural adjustment mandates of the major international financial institution lenders for economic development. Therefore, our finding a positive effect of FAID on HEXP could suggest that external resource inflows softened some of the macroeconomic fiscal deficit impacts on HEXP in the 2000s. Policy implications of country-specific elasticity estimates are given.

  9. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-11-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

  10. Existing agricultural ecosystem in China leads to environmental pollution: an econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongdou, Lei; Shiping, Li; Hao, Li

    2018-06-17

    Sustainable agriculture ensures food security and prevents starvation. However, the need to meet the increasing food demands of the growing population has led to poor and unsustainable agricultural practices, which promote environmental degradation. Given the contributions of agricultural ecosystems to environmental pollution, we investigated the impact of the agricultural ecosystem on environmental pollution in China using time series data from 1960 to 2014. We employed several methods for econometric analysis including the unit root test, Johansen test of cointegration, Granger causality test, and vector error correction model. Evidence based on the long-run elasticity indicates that a 1% increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent to nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will increase the emissions of CO 2 by 1.52% in the long run. Similarly, a 1% increase in the area of harvested rice paddy, cereal production, biomass of burned crop residues, and agricultural GDP will increase the carbon dioxide emissions by 0.85, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.22%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among the selected variables considered for the agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, we identified bidirectional causal associations between CO 2 emissions, biomass of burned crop residues, and cereal production. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

  11. FORECAST PRODUCTION COSTS SUGAR IN THE PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA THROUGH ECONOMETRIC TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Rodríguez-Betancourt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The conformation at the present time, of an economic model renovated in Cuba, it should be based in the efficient use of the productive factors which it counts the country, with emphasis in the substitution of imports. In the chapter VII, article 184 of the Limits of the Economic and Social Politics of the Party and the Revolution it can be read: "To prioritize, in short term, the substitution of imports of those foods that can be produced efficiently in the country; also it will owe to multiply the application of the results of the science and the technique."1 In fact the objective of the present investigation, using econometrics technical to carry out presage of the cost of sugar production, using factors in the productive process: days of harvest, use of the potential, recovered capacity and industrial yield. The results indicate  that the factor with more influences in the decrease of the costs is the industrial yield. It is also obtained a cost presage for the county Santiago de Cuba in different harvest stages that oscillates between $372,45 and 517,52 and it stops extreme values of $ 303,21 and $ 777,6. 

  12. Kriging Methodology and Its Development in Forecasting Econometric Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Gajdoš

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the approaches for forecasting future values of a time series or unknown spatial data is kriging. The main objective of the paper is to introduce a general scheme of kriging in forecasting econometric time series using a family of linear regression time series models (shortly named as FDSLRM which apply regression not only to a trend but also to a random component of the observed time series. Simultaneously performing a Monte Carlo simulation study with a real electricity consumption dataset in the R computational langure and environment, we investigate the well-known problem of “negative” estimates of variance components when kriging predictions fail. Our following theoretical analysis, including also the modern apparatus of advanced multivariate statistics, gives us the formulation and proof of a general theorem about the explicit form of moments (up to sixth order for a Gaussian time series observation. This result provides a basis for further theoretical and computational research in the kriging methodology development.

  13. An Exploratory Analysis of Economic Factors in the Navy Total Force Strength Model (NTFSM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    the model incorporates (in the personnel calculations) econometric effects to Losses by Expiration of Active Obligated Service, Attrition, and Length...Incorporate econometric effects of losses by LOS and paygrade using parameters generated by the Navy Econometric Modeling System (NEMS) to the greatest...community- level models . (CAP9) • Model architecture will support hosting of model , scenarios, (inputs, user comments, etc.) and outputs in a secure

  14. What is mLearning and How Can It Be Used to Support Learning and Teaching in Econometrics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Lucia

    2013-01-01

    The aim of case this study was to analyze the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance) at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher…

  15. How to decode Unemployment Persistence: An econometric framework for identifying and comparing the sources of persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2016-01-01

    Most econometric analyses of persistence focus on the existence of non-stationary unemployment but not the origin of this. The present research contains a multivariate econometric framework for identifying and comparing different sources of unemployment persistence (e.g. hysteresis versus a slowly...... moving equilibrium rate). A small example, considering historical data (1988-2006) for the UK, demonstrates how the method can be applied in practice. Although this primarily serves as an illustration, the evidence clearly suggests that persistence was due to a slowly moving equilibrium (driven...

  16. Econometric Analysis on Developing Decision to Promote an Investment Object of Small Business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Gabriela ZAMFIR

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Econometric applications should be used for decision making on economic issues of the day. One of the most important is access to finance sources, a vital field to the country's economic activity. Accessing funding source involves feasibility studies for decision making on opening funding. Therefore, I decided to approach applied econometrics in the feasibility studies: I avoided advanced software applications, limiting to universally accepted methodology of the World Bank and the functions for calculating Excel spreadsheet-success of a feasibility study is correctness and depth of analysis and processing raw data, not in getting and keeping a reputable software.

  17. The economic viability of value-based food chain for dairy farms in mountain regions: an econometric analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jernej Prišenk

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The attention of this paper is drawn to analyze the economic potential of involvement of farmers into the small-medium sized value-based food chain (VBFC. The survey represents a solid dana basis from which econometric modelling approach was further developed. Empirical results reveal the positive economic viability on a general level; this means more stable purchase price of raw milk for dairy farms, which are the part of value-based food chain. Results point at inelastic demand for milk and milk related products. Furthermore, there are some accompanying and underlying indirect social benefits, such as production of high-quality food products, more stable and constant demand for raw milk, steady payments and better social situation. The last one is especially important for the farms operating in less-favored mountain areas where the survey was actually conducted.

  18. An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gan, Peck Yean [Department of Engineering-Energy and Environment Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan); Li, ZhiDong [Department of Management and Information System Science, Nagaoka University of Technology, 1603-1 Kamitomioka, Nagaoka, Niigata 940-2188 (Japan)

    2008-02-15

    We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

  19. An econometric study on long-term energy outlook and the implications of renewable energy utilization in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gan, Peck Yean; Li, ZhiDong

    2008-01-01

    We developed a comprehensive econometric model to study the long-term outlook of Malaysia's economy, energy and environment to 2030. Our projections under the reference scenario indicated that Malaysia's gross domestic production (GDP) is expected to average 4.6% from 2004 to 2030, and total primary energy consumption will triple by 2030. Coal import will increase following governmental policy of intensifying its use for power generation. Oil import is predicted to take place by 2013 and reach 45 Mtoe in 2030. Hence, in the near future, Malaysia's energy import dependency will rise. Carbon emissions will triple by 2030. On the other hand, our projections under an alternative renewable energy (RE) scenario showed that the utilization of RE is a strategic option to improve the long-term energy security and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, substantial governmental involvements and support, as well as the establishment of a regulatory framework are necessary. (author)

  20. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  1. Econometric analysis of the effects of subsidies on farm production in case of endogenous input quantities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsen, Arne; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Lien, Gudbrand

    The effect of subsidies on farm production has been a major topic in agricultural economics for several decades. We present a new approach for analyzing the effects of different types of coupled and decoupled subsidies on farm production with econometric methods. In contrast to most previous...

  2. Heterogeneous trade agreements, WTO membership and international trade : an analysis using matching econometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kohl, Tristan; Trojanowska, Sofia

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the heterogeneous effects of trade agreements (TAs) and World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on the volume of international trade. We extend Baier and Bergstrand’s (2009a) application of matching econometrics by distinguishing between different types of TAs and WTO

  3. On the rise of Bayesian econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baştürk, N.; Çakmak, C.; Pinar Ceyhan, S.; van Dijk, H.K.

    2014-01-01

    This paper starts with a brief description of the introduction of the likelihood approach in econometrics as presented in Cowles Foundation Monographs 10 and 14. A sketch is given of the criticisms on this approach mainly from the first group of Bayesian econometricians. Publication and citation

  4. Econometric analysis of the effect of marketing costs on grain prices ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Econometric analysis of the effect of marketing costs on grain prices in Kaduna State of Nigeria. JAL Effiong. Abstract. No Abstract. Journal of Agriculture and Social Research Vol. 6 (1) 2006: pp. 11-14. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  5. ECONOMETRICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE INTERDEPENDECE BETWEEN FISCALITY RATE- FISCAL INCOMES- GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

    OpenAIRE

    POPA IONELA; PIETRARU ALINA; CODREANU DIANA

    2009-01-01

    Econometrics has come into being and grown as a result of the need to set up instruments of investigation and increase of the methods to organize, conduct and manage the economy, and on the other hand, due to the successful statistical and mathematical me

  6. Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Tsolakis

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four

  7. Peer influences on drug self-administration: an econometric analysis in socially housed rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitz, Geoffrey W; Strickland, Justin C; Pitts, Elizabeth G; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A

    2013-04-01

    Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine the social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, under conditions where the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e. quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs.

  8. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  9. Residential water demand and water consumption: an econometric analysis on municipal panel data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musolesi, Antonio; Nosvelli, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on residential water demand estimation, a rather neglected issue in the Italian environmental economics literature as compared to other European countries and the USA. This may depend on the difficulties in gathering proper data and, most of all, panel data. In some cases statistical information are not suitably collected, while in other cases legal privacy ties put some obstacles to data set transfer. Our panel data set refers to 102 municipalities in Lombardy (Italy) for the period 1998-2002. When estimating the effect of water price, we control for other relevant variables such as: income, households demographical variables - (age structure, number of component for each family) number of firms in tertiary sector, water system length. In the considered period, the data show both an increase in population (1,5 %) and in the number of water consumers (7%) associated, on aggregate, with a slight reduction in water consumption (-1,1 %). Water demand models are estimated both in a static and in a dynamic framework. In the former, the emphasis is set on the sources of endogeneity in the average price by estimating a system of simultaneous equations and relevant variables for assessing consumer behaviour - such as socio demographic ones - are incorporated in the model. In the latter, econometric methods especially designed for endogeneity in panel data models (Arellano e Bond, 1991), are employed in order to estimate the long run elasticity of water demand with respect to average price. We find evidence both that consumers significantly respond to average price only in the long run with an elasticity of about - 0,3-0,4 and that income and demographic variables are crucial in explaining consumers' behaviour. Furthermore, water consumption presents a strong auto-regressive component, showing the emergence of inertia and path dependency in consumption habits. Such results suggest important implications for water policy planning. On one side demographic

  10. Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

  11. DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN PAKISTAN: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS USING JOHANSEN CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Furrukh Bashi; Shahbaz Nawaz; Kalsoom Yasi; Usman Khursheed; Jahanzeb Khan; Muhammad Junaid Qureshi

    2011-01-01

    Inflation is regarded as regressive taxation against the poor. The most visible impact of inflation in recent times is its effect on real output, relative prices, taxes and interest rates. The study focuses to examine demand side and supply side determinants of inflation in Pakistan on economic and econometric criterion and also to investigate causal relationships among some macroeconomic variables. For that purpose, study has undertaken time series data for the period from 1972 to 2010. Long...

  12. Estimation of the value-at-risk parameter: Econometric analysis and the extreme value theory approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladenović Zorica

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper different aspects of value-at-risk estimation are considered. Daily returns of CISCO, INTEL and NASDAQ stock indices are analyzed for period: September 1996 - September 2006. Methods that incorporate time varying variability and heavy tails of the empirical distributions of returns are implemented. The main finding of the paper is that standard econometric methods underestimate the value-at-risk parameter if heavy tails of the empirical distribution are not explicitly taken into account. .

  13. Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

    2001-01-01

    Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.

  14. Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function; FINAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

    2001-01-01

    Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration conts are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change

  15. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  16. 7th International Conference of the Thailand Econometric Society

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2014-01-01

    In economics, many quantities are related to each other. Such economic relations are often much more complex than relations in science and engineering, where some quantities are independence, and the relation between others can be well approximated by linear functions. As a result of this complexity, when we apply traditional statistical techniques -- developed for science and engineering -- to process economic data, the inadequate treatment of dependence leads to misleading models and erroneous predictions. Some economists even blamed such inadequate treatment of dependence for the 2008 financial crisis. To make economic models more adequate, we need more accurate techniques for describing dependence. Such techniques are currently being developed. This book contains description of state-of-the-art techniques for modeling dependence, and economic applications of these techniques. Most of these research developments are centered around the notion of a copula -- a general way of describing dependence in probabi...

  17. The econometrics of the Holy Grail : A critique (Revised version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keuzenkamp, H.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the methodological views of David Hendry. A critique is given on the reification of the so-called Data Generating Process. The merits of general to specific modelling are analyzed. Hendry's neo-Popperian philosophy is examined. It is argued that this philosophy is not able to

  18. Income Status and Homeownership: Micro-econometric Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-09-01

    Sep 1, 2013 ... One of the core ambition of Federal Government staff of Nigeria is to own a home in urban areas. Generally ... Key words:Home ownership, income status, Simplistic Linear Probability Model, fiscal. Policies .... statistical area adjusted by socioeconomic and housing ... affects the country distribution of U.S..

  19. Econometric Analysis of Youth Smoking Behavior in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Zeynep Önder

    2012-01-01

    The report is organized as follows. The information about the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) is provided in the first part. The second part gives some descriptive statistics about the prevalence rate of students and their consumption based on several characteristics observed in the survey. The third part presents the empirical model and the variables used to estimate the probability of...

  20. An Econometric Investigation into the Wagner's Law in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-09-28

    Sep 28, 2012 ... in that our models achieved stability and are also Cointegrated to justify that although short-term instability do exist in the data set, there still exist a long-run equilibrium among ... government expenditure on economic growth.

  1. Reducing US carbon emissions: an econometric general equilibrium assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jorgenson, D.W.; Wilcoxen, P.J.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes research conducted as part of Energy Modeling Forum 12, a recent study of the costs of limiting carbon dioxide emissions organized by the Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University. It discusses how this approach differed from that of other participants in EMF-12 and presents several important findings. In particular, it is shown that in the United States the effects of a carbon tax will be very similar to the effects of a tax placed solely on coal. Outside the coal sector, the principal effect of carbon tax will be to raise the cost of electricity and to shift base load electric generating capacity toward fuels other than coal. At the aggregate level, higher energy prices will cause gross national product to fall unless the revenue from tax is used to reduce high marginal tax rates elsewhere in the economy. 22 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  2. Essays on investments and environment: a spatial econometrics perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Monteiro, José-Antonio; Grether, Jean-Marie

    2011-01-01

    This PhD dissertation investigates the links between foreign direct investment (FDI), pollution and environmental policies in an interdependent world. To tackle the issue of spatial dependence, I propose to apply new spatial estimators. The thesis consists of four papers. The first chapter, entitled Spatial Dynamic Panel and System GMM: a Monte-Carlo Investigation, investigates the finite sample properties of estimators for spatial dynamic panel models in the presence of several endogenous va...

  3. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murray Christopher JL

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  4. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Micro-econometric Analysis of Impact of Remittances on Household’s Welfare: Empirical Evidence from District Peshawar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Waqar Hussain

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The present study has been conducted in the year 2010 in district Peshawar to assess the impact of inflow of remittances on household’s welfare. The concept welfare was measured in terms of consumption expenditures of the household. A sample of 60 household was interviewed using snowball sampling combined with the convenient sampling technique. A regression model which was a mixture of direct elasticity and semi-elasticity was used to quantify the relationships. Apart from inflow of remittances (lnremt, three control variables (i.e. years of schooling of the household’s head – edu, age of household’s head – age & family size – fz were employed to standardize the impact. Controlling for edu, age & edu, this paper conclude that inflow of remittances enhance household’s welfare. All control variables have theoretically correct positive signs. These results were statistically significant and results showed no major econometric problems that can influence statistical inference derived from the model. So it is highly recommended, in light of the present study, that govt. of Pakistan should take all possible steps to export labors abroad. It has dual positive impacts, one enhancing household’s prosperity (welfare and other reducing unemployment at local level.

  6. Essays on the economics and econometrics of human capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosso, Stefano

    This thesis is composed by three distinct chapters. They are related by their common theme: the economic analysis of the process of human capital formation. The first chapter distills and extends the recent research on the economics of human development and social mobility. It critically analyzes the literature on the role of early life conditions in shaping multiple life skills with emphasis on the importance of critical and sensitive investments periods in influencing skill development. It develops economic models that rationalize the empirical evidence on treatment effects of social programs and on family influence. It investigates the empirical support of recent claims, made by part of the literature, on the relevance of credit constraints in limiting skill development. It shows how credit constraints are not a major force explaining differences in the amount of parental and self-investments in skills and how untargeted income transfer policies to poor families do not significantly boost child outcomes. The second chapter compares the performance of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments in estimating dynamic discrete choice models. It presents a structural model of education and shows how it can be used to estimate heterogeneous returns from schooling choices which account for their continuation values. Continuation values have a large impact on returns, but are ignored in the measures commonly used to assess the value of schooling choices. The estimates from the model are used to compute a synthetic dataset. This is used to assess the ability of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments to recover the model parameters. It finally proposes a Monte Carlo exercise to gain confidence on the performance of a simulated method of moments algorithm. The last chapter proposes a method to assess long run impacts on earnings of early interventions even in absence of long-term data collection on earnings histories for program participants. It

  7. Lost Productivity in Stroke Survivors: An Econometrics Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Manav V; Hackam, Daniel G; Silver, Frank L; Laporte, Audrey; Kapral, Moira K

    2016-01-01

    Stroke leads to a substantial societal economic burden. Loss of productivity among stroke survivors is a significant contributor to the indirect costs associated with stroke. We aimed to characterize productivity and factors associated with employability in stroke survivors. We used the Canadian Community Health Survey 2011-2012 to identify stroke survivors and employment status. We used multivariable logistic models to determine the impact of stroke on employment and on factors associated with employability, and used Heckman models to estimate the effect of stroke on productivity (number of hours worked/week and hourly wages). We included data from 91,633 respondents between 18 and 70 years and identified 923 (1%) stroke survivors. Stroke survivors were less likely to be employed (adjusted OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46) and had hourly wages 17.5% (95% CI 7.7-23.7) lower compared to the general population, although there was no association between work hours and being a stroke survivor. We found that factors like older age, not being married, and having medical comorbidities were associated with lower odds of employment in stroke survivors in our sample. Stroke survivors are less likely to be employed and they earn a lower hourly wage than the general population. Interventions such as dedicated vocational rehabilitation and policies targeting return to work could be considered to address this lost productivity among stroke survivors. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. FROM UNEMPLOYMENT TO WORK: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS WITH SPATIAL CONSTRAINTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Calavrezo

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our research is to analyze how the urban organization affects the unemployment-to-work transitions by considering several spatial indicators. This permits to capture two separate effects: "spatial mismatch" and "neighbourhood effects". In order to study the unemployment-to-work transitions, we implement survival models. They are applied on a sample obtained by merging three French databases: the "Trajectoires des demandeurs d'emplois" survey, the 1999 French census and finally, a database containing town inventory information. More precisely, in this paper, we analyze the duration of the first observed employment episode by using spatial indicators and by controlling three potential biases (endogeneity bias, selection bias and attrition bias.

  9. Energy consumption projection of Nepal: An econometric approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parajuli, Ranjan; Østergaard, Poul A.; Dalgaard, Tommy

    2014-01-01

    In energy dependent economies, energy consumption is often linked with the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Energy intensity, defined herewith, as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption (TPE) to the GDP, is a useful concept for understanding the relation between energy demand...... and economic development. The scope of this article is to assess the future primary energy consumption of Nepal, and the projection is carried out along with the formulation of simple linear logarithmic energy consumption models. This initiates with a hypothesis that energy consumption is dependent...... with the national macro-economic parameters. To test the hypothesis, nexus between energy consumption and possible determinant variables are examined. Status of energy consumption between the period of 1996 and 2009, and for the same period, growth of economic parameters are assessed. Three scenarios are developed...

  10. Robust methods and asymptotic theory in nonlinear econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Bierens, Herman J

    1981-01-01

    This Lecture Note deals with asymptotic properties, i.e. weak and strong consistency and asymptotic normality, of parameter estimators of nonlinear regression models and nonlinear structural equations under various assumptions on the distribution of the data. The estimation methods involved are nonlinear least squares estimation (NLLSE), nonlinear robust M-estimation (NLRME) and non­ linear weighted robust M-estimation (NLWRME) for the regression case and nonlinear two-stage least squares estimation (NL2SLSE) and a new method called minimum information estimation (MIE) for the case of structural equations. The asymptotic properties of the NLLSE and the two robust M-estimation methods are derived from further elaborations of results of Jennrich. Special attention is payed to the comparison of the asymptotic efficiency of NLLSE and NLRME. It is shown that if the tails of the error distribution are fatter than those of the normal distribution NLRME is more efficient than NLLSE. The NLWRME method is appropriate ...

  11. An econometrics method to estimate demand of sugar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negar Seyed Soleimany

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Sugar is one of the strategic goods in the basket of households in each country and it plays an important role in supplying the required energy. On the other hand, it is one of the goods, which Iranian government is about to change its subsidy strategies. To design useful sugar subsidy strategies, it is necessary to know sugar position in the basket of households and be familiar with households' sugar demand or consumption behavior. This research estimates sugar demand for Iranian households by using time series of 1984-2008, which is taken from central bank of Iran. In this paper, first independent and dependent variables of household sugar demand model are chosen based on the literature review and theory of demand. Then, sugar demand is estimated by OLS technique and linear regression. The preliminary statistical observations such as Durbin-Watson, F statistic and R2 indicate that the regression is admissible. The results seem plausible and consistent with theory and show that sugar demand in Iranian households is associated with household expenditure, relative sugar price, family size and indicate that demand of sugar is affected during the war time. The results also show the income elasticity is 0.8 and price elasticity is -0.2 which means sugar is essential good for Iranian households and is inelastic to price.

  12. Econometric analysis of Australian emissions markets and electricity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cotton, Deborah; De Mello, Lurion

    2014-01-01

    Emissions trading schemes aim to reduce the emissions in certain pollutants using a market based scheme where participants can buy and sell permits for these emissions. This paper analyses the efficiency of the two largest schemes in Australia, the NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and the Mandatory Renewable Energy Trading Scheme, through their effect on the electricity prices from 2004 to 2010. We use a long run structural modelling technique for the first time on this market. It provides a practical long-run approach to structural relationships which enable the determination of the effectiveness of the theoretical expectations of these schemes. The generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis finds that both schemes' emissions prices have little effect on electricity prices. Generalised impulse response function analysis support this finding indicating that when shocks are applied to electricity by the two schemes it returns to equilibrium very quickly. This indicates that these schemes are not having the effect anticipated in their legislation. - Highlights: • We analyse two emissions trading schemes in Australia. • We test for their effect on wholesale electricity prices. • The test uses generalised forecast error variance decomposition analysis. • The tests find long run relationship between the variables in both the samples. • The short run-dynamics indicate that they play a minimal role in electricity prices

  13. The relationship of sugar to population-level diabetes prevalence: an econometric analysis of repeated cross-sectional data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Yoffe, Paula; Hills, Nancy; Lustig, Robert H

    2013-01-01

    While experimental and observational studies suggest that sugar intake is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, independent of its role in obesity, it is unclear whether alterations in sugar intake can account for differences in diabetes prevalence among overall populations. Using econometric models of repeated cross-sectional data on diabetes and nutritional components of food from 175 countries, we found that every 150 kcal/person/day increase in sugar availability (about one can of soda/day) was associated with increased diabetes prevalence by 1.1% (p <0.001) after testing for potential selection biases and controlling for other food types (including fibers, meats, fruits, oils, cereals), total calories, overweight and obesity, period-effects, and several socioeconomic variables such as aging, urbanization and income. No other food types yielded significant individual associations with diabetes prevalence after controlling for obesity and other confounders. The impact of sugar on diabetes was independent of sedentary behavior and alcohol use, and the effect was modified but not confounded by obesity or overweight. Duration and degree of sugar exposure correlated significantly with diabetes prevalence in a dose-dependent manner, while declines in sugar exposure correlated with significant subsequent declines in diabetes rates independently of other socioeconomic, dietary and obesity prevalence changes. Differences in sugar availability statistically explain variations in diabetes prevalence rates at a population level that are not explained by physical activity, overweight or obesity.

  14. Determinants of the distribution and concentration of biogas production in Germany. A spatial econometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scholz, Lukas

    2015-01-01

    The biogas production in Germany is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution and the formation of regional centers. In the present study the determinants of the spatial distribution and concentration are analyzed with methods of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. In addition to the consideration of ''classic'' site factors of agricultural production, the analysis here focuses on the possible relevance of agglomeration effects. The results of the work contribute to a better understanding of the regional distribution and concentration of the biogas production in Germany. [de

  15. Prácticas para el aprendizaje de la econometría avanzada

    OpenAIRE

    Esteban González, María Victoria; Modroño Herrán, Juan Ignacio; Orbe Mandaluniz

    2014-01-01

    En este libro, los autores han recolectado y ordenado el material docente que han elaborado a lo largo de los últimos cursos académicos para la asignatura de Econometría, de la Licenciatura en Economía en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales de la UPV/EHU. Los autores han colaborado en distintos proyectos de innovación docente que han permitido desarrollar la asignatura con aprovechamiento de las TICs, y han participado, entre otras actividades, en programas de innovación docent...

  16. Is the way young people drive a reflection of the way their parents drive? An econometric study of the relation between parental risk and their children's risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahatte, Agénor; Le Pape, Marie-Clémence

    2008-06-01

    This article aims to investigate parental influence on high-risk behavior by young people. Although research on the topic of perception of risk demonstrates that it is socially constructed, the role of the family in this construction has rarely been studied. Using a French national survey of more than 1,200 young drivers between the ages of 18 and 25, and their parents, we attempt to understand the transmission of risk within families. Our econometric study shows that parents influence both the practices and representations of their children. When parental norms and values are transmitted, they are by no means accepted in a wholly passive way. Indeed, the parental model is in competition with other models that originate from both inside the family (brothers and sisters) and outside it (instructors). Furthermore, parental influence decreases over time as young people become more experienced drivers and construct their own identity with regard to risk.

  17. An econometric analysis of electricity demand response to price changes at the intra-day horizon: The case of manufacturing industry in West Denmark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niels Framroze Møller

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The use of renewable energy implies a more variable supply of power. Market efficiency may improve if demand can absorb some of this variability by being more flexible, e.g. by responding quickly to changes in the market price of power. To learn about this, in particular, whether demand responds already within the same day, we suggest an econometric model for hourly consumption- and price time series. This allows for multi-level seasonality and that information about day-ahead prices does not arrive every hour but every 24th hour (as a vector of 24 prices. We confront the model with data from the manufacturing industry of West Denmark (2007-2011. The results clearly suggest a lack of response. The policy implication is that relying exclusively on hourly price response by consumers for integrating volatile renewable electricity production is questionable. Either hourly price variation has to increase considerably or demand response technologies be installed.

  18. Assessing the capital efficiency of healthcare information technologies investments: an econometric perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Rodolphe; Degoulet, Patrice

    2008-01-01

    To examine the different methods that can be used in the quantification of the added value of information technologies (IT) in the health care sector. This quantification represents a major issue for decision-makers and health care professionals when they have to plan an IT investment. Articles were chosen via Medline, internet and the University of Geneva bibliographic portal. Some of the papers were obtained directly from their authors. We examine the most current methods used to evaluate IT return on investment (ROI) in the general business and in the health care sector, drawing attention on methods traditionally used in macroeconomic studies that could reveal themselves disruptive for IT ROI impact evaluation in hospitals. Financial and accounting methods can provide interesting data on a specific IT project but are usually incomplete for revealing the global IT investment influence. Econometric methods tend to demonstrate the positive impact of health care IT (HIT) on hospital production and productivity. Hospitals having higher levels of IT investment tend to deliver a higher level of clinical quality and show improved hospital cost performances. Information technologies are so intermingled with people and processes that the identification of specific IT benefit remains questionable. Using macroeconomic tools could be the best way to analyze and compute IT ROI in health care. Econometric tools take into account all types investments (inputs) and all the returns (outputs) enabling the precise measurement of IT investments impact, breakeven points, and possible threshold levels, thus providing helpful intelligence to reach the higher levels of IT governance in hospitals.

  19. On Forecasting Macro-Economic Indicators with the Help of Finite-Difference Equations and Econometric Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polshkov Yulian M.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article considers data on the gross domestic product, consumer expenditures, gross investments and volume of foreign trade for the national economy. It is assumed that time is a discrete variable with one year iteration. The article uses finite-difference equations. It considers models with a high degree of the regulatory function of the state with respect to the consumer market. The econometric component is based on the hypothesis that each of the above said macro-economic indicators for this year depends on the gross domestic product for the previous time periods. Such an assumption gives a possibility to engage the least-squares method for building up linear models of the pair regression. The article obtains the time series model, which allows building point and interval forecasts for the gross domestic product for the next year based on the values of the gross domestic product for the current and previous years. The article draws a conclusion that such forecasts could be considered justified at least in the short-term prospect. From the mathematical point of view the built model is a heterogeneous finite-difference equation of the second order with constant ratios. The article describes specific features of such equations. It illustrates graphically the analytical view of solutions of the finite-difference equation. This gives grounds to differentiate national economies as sustainable growth economies, one-sided, weak or being in the stage of successful re-formation. The article conducts comparison of the listed types with specific economies of modern states.

  20. Spatial Econometric Research on the Relationship between Highway Construction and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Nationwide Panel Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, N. J.; Li, W. J.; Li, Y.; Bai, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    Based on spatial panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway construction and regional economic growth by means of spatial econometric model. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation on regional economic growth in China, and strong spatial dependences between some provinces and cities appear, specifically, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas show high-high agglomeration trend, the Pearl River Delta region presents high-low agglomeration trend; In terms of nationwide provinces and municipalities, a province’s highway construction investment for their own province and the neighboring provinces has pulling effect on economic growth to a certain extent, and the direct effect is more obvious.

  1. Econometric models of road use, accidents, and road investment decisions. Volume 2 : an econometric model of car ownership, road use, accidents, and their severity (Essay 3)

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-11-01

    Using a fairly large cross-section/time-series data base, covering all provinces of Norway and all months between January 1973 and December 1994, we estimate non-linear (Box-Cox) regression equations explaining aggregate car ownership, road use, seat...

  2. Econometric Mediation Analyses: Identifying the Sources of Treatment Effects from Experimentally Estimated Production Technologies with Unmeasured and Mismeasured Inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents an econometric mediation analysis. It considers identification of production functions and the sources of output effects (treatment effects) from experimental interventions when some inputs are mismeasured and others are entirely omitted. JEL Code: D24, C21, C43, C38.

  3. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  4. What is mLearning and how can it be used to support learning and teaching in Econometrics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia Morales

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available This research project analyzed the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher detected a clear need for learning support. Econometrics courses are heavily supported by the use of sophisticated statistical software, the availability of which is normally restricted to designated labs in the college. As a result, this project has developed an application that facilitates students’ access to econometrics course work, where a mobile device was used. The main objective of the project was to enable students to bring their course material home with them and use it anywhere, at any time, so that the basic material covered in class could be consulted and reviewed as many times as the students need. The results of this project are very encouraging, as evidence suggests mobile technologies can play a positive role in improving students’ learning experience. Teachers should consider using mobile technologies to support their work in the classroom. In this context, smart phones and PC tablets, the devices used during this study, have proved to be particularly effective. DOI: 10.18870/hlrc.v3i1.69

  5. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL; Lantz, Margaret W [ORNL; Hauser, Katie R [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

  6. THE ECONOMETRICS OF THE FORECASTING OF FINANCIAL RESOURCES, A MAIN COMPONENT OF THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper intends to emphasise the importance of budget resources forecasting for long periods of time, within thefinancial management. An as accurate as possible forecasting of the volume of financial resources will represent the basis forthe future projections of the expenditure of local communities, as they are regulated by law, knowing that one of the principlesrepresenting the basis of budget making is that of the balanced budget. To the same extent, the volume of the budget liquiditieswill depend on the rigorousness of the design of the volume of financial resources.. Beyond the abstract character of themathematic calculus made by specialists in econometrics, the financial manager is also interested to know the forecastingtechniques so that he/she can draw up the income and expenditure budget, the basis for the implementation of the economicsocialdevelopment strategies of the local communities. The financial management remains a fundamental component of thepublic management through the theoretical-methodological arsenal made available for the loan officer.

  7. On the non-convergence of energy intensities: evidence from a pair-wise econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2008-01-01

    This paper evaluates convergence of energy intensities for a group of 97 countries in the period 1971-2003. Convergence is tested using a recent method proposed by Pesaran (2007) [M.H. Pesaran. A pair- wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics 138, 312-355.] based on the stochastic convergence criterion. Main advantages of this method are that results do not depend on a benchmark against which convergence is assessed, and that it is more robust. Applications of several unit-root tests as well as a stationarity test uniformly reject the global convergence hypothesis. Locally, for Middle- East, OECD and Europe sub-groups, non-convergence is less strongly rejected. The introduction of possible structural breaks in the analysis only marginally provides more support to the convergence hypothesis. (authors)

  8. The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, Martin [Institute for Advanced Studies, Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna (Austria)

    2008-08-15

    We discuss several major econometric problems that have been ignored in the empirical environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) literature thus far. These are: First, the use of nonlinear transformations of integrated regressors and second, in a panel context, cross-sectional dependence in the data. Both problems fundamentally invalidate the use of widely applied time series and panel unit root and cointegration techniques. We use the important special case of the relationship between GDP and CO{sub 2} (and SO{sub 2}) emissions to show and discuss in detail that the seemingly strong evidence for an inverted U-shaped relationship between these variables obtained with commonly used methods is entirely spurious and vanishes when resorting to estimation strategies that take the discussed problems into account. (author)

  9. Econometría Espacial Aplicada a la Agricultura de Precisión

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolfo Bongiovanni

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available La agricultura de precisión se define como la “aplicación de tecnologías y principios de manejo de cultivos para manejar la variabilidad espacio-temporal asociada a la producción agrícola”.El artículo muestra cómo la econometría espacial se puede aplicar al estudio de los datos del monitor de rendimiento para estimar la respuesta del cultivo al fertilizante.En un estudio de caso de fertilización del maíz con nitrógeno en 1998-99 indican: hay autocorrelación espacial y heterocedasticidad en la respuesta del maíz; la respuesta al nitrógeno y las dosis óptimas de nitrógeno difieren en las distintas posiciones topográficas dentro del lote; la dosis variable de nitrógeno es rentable a un costo extra de USD 6 ha-1; la respuesta al nitrógeno y las dosis óptimas por posición en el lote difieren de año en año.Este resultado es interesante y alienta el uso de la econometría espacial en modelos espaciales, como una herramienta efectiva para determinar la rentabilidad de la dosis variable. Se debe tener en cuenta que se trata de un análisis “ex-post”, es decir, se asume que la respuesta del cultivo al N se conoce al momento de realizar la fertilización. A pesar de que la respuesta esperada nunca se va a conocer con certeza, un análisis económico de este tipo es el punto de partida que permite comenzar a comprender las implicaciones del manejo sitio-específico.

  10. Application of modern tests for stationarity to single-trial MEG data: transferring powerful statistical tools from econometrics to neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech

    2011-10-01

    Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.

  11. Comparison of Macroeconomic Performance of Selected Asian Countries. An Econometric Analysis of China Economic Growth and Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasret Benar Balcioglu

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the key macroeconomics indicators for the selected countries: China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, Rep. and India and also makes an econometric analysis for China for the period 1961-2007. These countries are chosen on the basis of comparability of data and time without measurement errors. This study also investigates six hypotheses considering the impact of several key macroeconomic variables such as domestic saving rate, domestic investment rate, and volatility of savings, volatility of inflation, growth rate of exports and growth rate of real GNP. By using suitable statistical and econometric tests, this paper finds that prevailing performance of China depends on its superior rates of domestic saving and exports. Policies are also suggested from the differentials between the economic performances of China and other chosen Asian countries.

  12. La teoría de la ciencia de Karl Popper y la econometría

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Redman Deborah A.

    1995-12-01

    Full Text Available En este ensayo mostraré que la teoría de la falsación ejerció su principalimpacto en los primeros desarrollos de la macroeconomía, quein fortunadamente su impacto a largo plazo no ha sido productivo y que el seguimiento de este desarrollo ayuda a explicar muchos de los actuales escándalos en la econometría y la macroeconomía. Dado que la literatura ha difundido muchos mitos sobre la teoría de la ciencia de Popper, primero revisaré sus teorías de las ciencias naturales y sociales y explicaré por qué la falsación fracasa en ambas ramas antes de exponer la conexión con la econometría.

  13. Are happiness and productivity lower among young people with newly-divorced parents? : an experimental and econometric approach

    OpenAIRE

    Proto, Eugenio; Sgroi, Daniel; Oswald, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    High rates of divorce in western society have prompted much research on the repercussions for well-being and the economy. Yet little is known about the important topic of whether parental divorce has deleterious consequences upon adult children. By combining experimental and econometric survey-based evidence, this study attempts to provide an answer. Under controlled conditions, it measures university students’ subjective well-being and productivity (in a standardized laboratory task). It fin...

  14. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - An econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J. Nigel B.; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A.

    2010-01-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O 3 , with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O 3 impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O 3 tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. - Econometric study of British winter wheat trial plot data suggests lower economic loss than predicted from experiments.

  15. An econometric analysis of a regional power company and evaluation of its investment policies by using optimal control technique: The case of New York State Electric and Gas Corporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guney, Esat Serhat

    1997-12-01

    This study, in its first part, explores the basic parameters of a power market in a utility district. The analysis of this market, naturally, includes a demand and a supply side and the interactions between the two. The econometric model is built to simulate the system of operations of one specific utility company, namely NYSEG (New York State Electric & Gas Corporation), one of seven major Investor-Owned-Utility Companies in New York State. The company serves about 17,000 square miles, or more than one third of the state's land, and one tenth of its population. The study uses time-series data covering 1960 to 1994 for more than fifty variables. The econometric analysis performs both single equation and system estimations and yields short-run vs. long-run and direct vs. total elasticity estimates, which are crucial for any producer in the market place. In the second part of this research, an optimal control procedure is used to evaluate NYSEG's investment policies retrospectively. For control calculations, a simplified linear version of the system of equations is used. Due to its constrained nature (both by being linear and having low degrees of freedom), the optimal control component mainly serves as an educational tool in microeconomic modeling. Lastly, we performed Exploratory Data Analysis for the data we employed. This was done to justify the use of certain parametric test procedures performed in the process basically by checking whether the implicit assumptions of normality and the randomness hold.

  16. Adoption and compliance in second-hand smoking bans: a global econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Richard; Neumayer, Eric

    2014-10-01

    We examine the determinants governing both countries' enactment of smoking bans in public places and their ability to successfully put these bans into effect. Using a large sample (N = 99-184) of low-, middle- and high-income countries, econometric techniques are used to estimate the influence of several variables on cross-national variations in the adoption and compliance of second-hand smoke laws (2010). We find similarities in the determinants of adoption and compliance. Yet more notable are the differences, with several political economy factors which have a statistically significant influence on countries' level of compliance with existing smoke-free laws in public places found not to consistently influence their propensity to adopt bans in the first place. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are that governments are motivated to adopt smoking bans for reasons other than protecting the health of their citizens and that the real costs of smoking bans are predominantly borne at the compliance stage. More effort needs to be made to ensure that governments realize their existing policy commitments through effective enforcement of bans.

  17. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China – An econometric approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. - Highlights: • We examine the impacts of the surface ozone exposure on winter wheat yield in China. • An econometric method is used to measure the ozone impacts. • The results conclude that surface ozone is harmful to winter wheat yield in China. • We confirm that stress conditions such as drought and air particles can mitigate the adverse effect of ozone. - Surface ozone pollution is harmful to winter wheat yield in China by considering socio-economic determinants, weather, and other stress conditions like drought and air particles.

  18. The Impact of the 2008 Credit Crisis on the Sugarcane Sector: A Study Econometric

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia de Castro Camioto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The sugarcane industry contributes approximately 2% to the Brazilian GDP, and generates more than 600,000 jobs in nearly a thousand cities. This study aims to determine the main variables that affect the growth of the Brazilian sugarcane sector. For this, econometric techniques were used to quantify the impact of each variable studied in the growth of Gross Domestic Product in this sector from 1980 to 2013. A specific analysis of the impact of the 2008 credit crisis on growth this sector was also performed. The results showed that the variables that impact the growth of Brazilian sugarcane industry are: exchange rate, fuel alcohol consumption, and the average price of a barrel of petroleum. Moreover, it was found that the 2008 crisis contributed negatively to the GDP of this sector. It was possible to conclude that the crisis in this sector had its origin in the optimism in this sector, due to the growth of the sector in 2006 and the global factors in 2008, which was reflected in variables such as exchange rate and the consumption of alcohol fuel, that negatively impacted the sector.

  19. Consumers and experts. An econometric analysis of the demand for water heaters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Soest, A.; Bartels, R.; Fiebig, D.G.

    2003-01-01

    Consumers can accumulate product information on the basis of a combination of searching, product advertising and expert advice. Examples of experts who provide product information include doctors advising patients on treatments, motor mechanics diagnosing car problems and recommending repairs, accountants recommending investment strategies, and plumbers making recommendations on alternative water heaters. In each of these examples, the transactions involve the sale of goods and services where the seller is at the same time an expert providing advice on the amount and type of product or service to be purchased. In the case of water heaters, the plumber advising a consumer on their choice of water heater will most likely also install the appliance. Because of the information asymmetry there is potentially a strategic element in the transmission of information from expert to consumer. This paper reports on an econometric investigation of the factors that determine the choices made by consumers and the recommendations made by plumbers and the extent to which plumbers act in the best interests of their customers. The empirical work is made possible by the availability of stated preference data generated by designed experiments involving separate samples of Australian consumers and plumbers. We find some evidence that plumbers have higher preferences than consumers for heater characteristics that increase their profit margin

  20. Una teoria macroeconomica della distribuzione per disperdere le nebbie dell'economia. (A macro-distributive theory dispelling the econometric fog

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. WEINTRAUB

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available L'opera presenta un modello lineare del settore del mercato privato dell'economia costruito in blocchi principali di Keynes , con alcuni pezzi forniti da Kalecki , Kaldor , e Robinson . L'autore sostiene che tale modello è ricco di promesse in virtù della sua portata e che risolve gran parte del mistero dei modelli econometrici e dimostra le circostanze in cui essi sono suscettibili di agire bene o male . Pedagogicamente , le idee di base sono facilemnte trasmissibilinella prima fase degli studi economici The work presents a linear model of the private market sector of the economy built out of the main blocks of Keynes with some pieces furnished by Kalecki, Kaldor, and Robinson. The author argues that such model is rich in promise by virtue of its scope and that it strips much of the mystery from econometric models and demonstrates the circumstances in which they are likely to perform well or badly. The consistent relations offer hospitable shelter for the theory of income, employment, price level, and income shares in a succinct design. Pedagogically, the elemental ideas are capable of transmission at an early stage in economic studies. JEL: E12

  1. SPATIAL STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS FOR MODELS IN FISHERIES ECONOMICS. (R828012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  2. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.

  3. The regional economic impacts of bypasses : a longitudinal study incorporating spatial panel econometrics and multilevel modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    This paper will describe an integrated approach to documenting and quantifying the impacts of bypasses : on small communities, with a focus on what economic impacts, if any, occur, and how these impacts : change over time. Two similarly sized communi...

  4. An econometric viability model for ongrowing sole (Solea senegalensis) in tanks using pumped well sea water

    OpenAIRE

    García García, J.; García García, B.

    2006-01-01

    Sole (Solea senegalensis) is of great interest to marine aquaculture in the Mediterranean because of its relatively fast growth and good commercial prospects (high price). However, the wide mean annual variation in the temperature of Mediterranean sea water (14-26 deg C) is a limiting factor for the ongrowing of this species; the optimum for this process is 19-20 deg C. One of the possible mid-term solutions for ensuring a constant year-round temperature is to ongrow these fish in tanks conta...

  5. Econometric Model for Optimizing Troop Dining Facility Operations (The Army Master Menu Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-11-01

    is preferred to another recipe which is selected at random. In- tuitively, it is clear that a recipe such as fried chicken is much more acceptable...Table 6-1. Acceptability of Steak and Chicken versus Liver and Chicken Recipe Acceptability Probability of rejection Fried chicken 65% .35 Grilled... RECIPE L-9 IEEEF POT ROAST I OS SERVD IN T HE FCLLOMING MENUS:0-JO9 0-GR8T TOTAL TMES SERVED A. *RCIPE L-9- SGINGER POT ROAST I IS SLRVED IN THE

  6. An Econometric Analysis of Modulated Realised Covariance, Regression and Correlation in Noisy Diffusion Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kinnebrock, Silja; Podolskij, Mark

    This paper introduces a new estimator to measure the ex-post covariation between high-frequency financial time series under market microstructure noise. We provide an asymptotic limit theory (including feasible central limit theorems) for standard methods such as regression, correlation analysis...... process can be relaxed and how our method can be applied to non-synchronous observations. We also present an empirical study of how high-frequency correlations, regressions and covariances change through time....

  7. Comparing micro-evidence on rent sharing from two different econometric models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dobbelaere, Sabien; Mairesse, Jacques

    The extent to which employers share rents with their employees is typically assessed by estimating the responsiveness of workers’ wages on firms’ ability to pay. This paper compares rent-sharing estimates using such a wage determination regression with estimates based on a productivity regression

  8. Analisys of the interregional mobility flows - use of the econometric linear model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina CHIRTOC

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of labour’s mobility is extremely complex,multidimensional, plurivalent, difficult to decipher in structure and amplitude. Although unfolds amid and in the conditions of the economies’ globalization, free labour circulation run against the institutional, national and international constraints, of the behavioural constraints of the population from the areas andregions of destination as well as constraints that are the results of the difficulties of adaptations of the new arrivals.The labour’s mobility is approached both in theory and in practice in relation with the necessity of a balanced social and economic development in regional plan combining the aspects of structural order with the ones of functional order.

  9. Parallelization experience with four canonical econometric models using ParMitISEM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baştürk, N.; Grassi, S.; Hoogerheide, L.; van Dijk, H.K.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the parallel computing implementation of the MitISEM algorithm, labeled Parallel MitISEM. The basic MitISEM algorithm, introduced by Hoogerheide et al. (2012), provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density using adaptive mixtures of

  10. Parallelization Experience with Four Canonical Econometric Models Using ParMitISEM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Basturk (Nalan); S. Grassi (Stefano); L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThis paper presents the parallel computing implementation of the MitISEM algorithm, labeled Parallel MitISEM. The basic MitISEM algorithm, introduced by Hoogerheide, Opschoor and Van Dijk (2012), provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density

  11. Parallelization experience with four canonical econometric models using ParMitISEM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastürk, Nalan; Grassi, S.; Hoogerheide, L.; van Dijk, Herman K.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the parallel computing implementation of the MitISEM algorithm, labeled Parallel MitISEM. The basic MitISEM algorithm provides an automatic and flexible method to approximate a non-elliptical target density using adaptive mixtures of Student-t densities, where only a kernel of

  12. Identifiability and Problems of Model Selection for Time-Series Analysis in Econometrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    isolate quantitative relationships between important variables (say, taxations vs. savings). .,or is it possible to perform experiments or direct...important mathematical results to be obtained. The main fact is that for canonical realizations Ecan, which always exist if any reali- zation exists...ematical mibject; of canonical forms which is experiencing a renaissance under the irnpe2t’s of system theory (see TANIfENBATUM [19811). As far as

  13. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianlei Dong

    Full Text Available Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.

  14. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jia; Zhang, Ya; Ma, Ling; Liu, Xuan

    2016-10-28

    Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, P<.001) or strong online self-representation (beta=0.386, P<.001) is less concentrated. When health care services are delivered online, the market will be more concentrated (known as the "Superstar" effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. ©Jia Li, Ya Zhang, Ling Ma, Xuan Liu. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 28.10.2016.

  15. Food preparation patterns in German family households. An econometric approach with time budget data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möser, Anke

    2010-08-01

    In Germany, the rising importance of out-of-home consumption, increasing usage of convenience products and decreasing knowledge of younger individuals how to prepare traditional dishes can be seen as obvious indicators for shifting patterns in food preparation. In this paper, econometric analyses are used to shed more light on the factors which may influence the time spent on food preparation in two-parent family households with children. Two time budget surveys, carried out 1991/92 and 2001/02 through the German National Statistical Office, provide the necessary data. Time budget data analyses reveal that over the last ten years the time spent on food preparation in Germany has decreased. The results point out that time resources of a household, for example gainful employment of the parents, significantly affect the amount of time spent on food preparation. The analysis confirms further that there is a more equal allocation of time spent on cooking, baking or laying the table between women and men in the last ten years. Due to changing attitudes and conceivably adaption of economic conditions, differences in time devoted to food preparation seem to have vanished between Eastern and Western Germany. Greater time spent on eating out in Germany as well as decreasing time spent on food preparation at home reveal that the food provisioning of families is no longer a primarily private task of the households themselves but needs more public attention and institutional offers and help. Among other points, the possibility of addressing mothers' lack of time as well as growing "food illiteracy" of children and young adults are discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Background Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). Methods We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. Results The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, Ponline self-representation (beta=0.386, Ponline, the market will be more concentrated (known as the “Superstar” effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. PMID:27793793

  17. Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Zhang, Yue-Jun

    2014-01-01

    Whether China’s crude oil imports are the culprit of oil price volatility these years has not been quantitatively confirmed. Therefore, this paper empirically investigates the role of China’s crude oil net imports in Brent price changes from October 2005 to November 2013 based on an econometric analysis. The results indicate that, during the sample period, China’s crude oil imports do not significantly affect Brent price changes, no matter in the long run or short run. Therefore, the blame for China’s crude oil imports to cause the dramatic fluctuations of international oil price has no solid evidence. Also, there exists significant uni-directional causality running from the Brent price to China's crude oil imports at the 5% level. Besides, the response of the Brent price to China's crude oil imports is found positive but slight, and the Brent price responds more significantly to US dollar exchange rate and OECD commercial inventory than to China’s crude oil imports in the short run. Finally, the contribution of China's crude oil imports to Brent price movement is about 10%, which is less than that of US dollar exchange rate but larger than that of Indian crude oil imports or OECD commercial inventory. - Highlights: • The paper detects the role of China’s crude oil imports in Brent oil price changes. • China’s crude imports do not matter for oil prices in the long run or short run. • The blame for China’s crude imports on oil price changes has no solid evidence. • Significant causality runs from Brent prices to China's crude oil net imports. • China's crude imports contribute less to Brent prices than US dollar exchange rate

  18. [Are there irrationalities in the consumption of anti-obesity drugs in Brazil? A pharmaco-econometric analysis of panel datasets].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mota, Daniel Marques; de Oliveira, Márcia Gonçalves; Bovi, Rafael Filiacci; Silva, Sidarta Figueredo; Cunha, Jeane Araújo Fernandes; Divino, José Angelo

    2014-05-01

    The scope of this study is to analyze the determinants of the use of appetite suppressants (amfepramone, femproporex, mazindol and sibutramine) through the estimation of a dynamic panel dataset model for the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District (DF) in the period from 2009 to 2011. The results show that consumption of appetite suppressants did not follow the geographic distribution of overweight and obese individuals across the capitals and DF. There is a recurrent consumption of appetite inhibitors, in which 79% of the current consumption of these drugs is explained by past consumption. Among the variables that explain the use of inhibitors, the percentage of obese adults, the percentage of adults who habitually consume fruit and vegetables, and the coverage rate of health plans stand out. The pharmaco-econometric analysis suggests that there are problems in the rational use of appetite suppressants in the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District with respect to both the combined consumption of these drugs with other medicines - deemed illegal by the Federal Council of Medicine and ANVISA - and in the therapeutic prescription of these products.

  19. Refining cost-effectiveness analyses using the net benefit approach and econometric methods: an example from a trial of anti-depressant treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabes-Figuera, Ramon; McCrone, Paul; Kendricks, Antony

    2013-04-01

    Economic evaluation analyses can be enhanced by employing regression methods, allowing for the identification of important sub-groups and to adjust for imperfect randomisation in clinical trials or to analyse non-randomised data. To explore the benefits of combining regression techniques and the standard Bayesian approach to refine cost-effectiveness analyses using data from randomised clinical trials. Data from a randomised trial of anti-depressant treatment were analysed and a regression model was used to explore the factors that have an impact on the net benefit (NB) statistic with the aim of using these findings to adjust the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Exploratory sub-samples' analyses were carried out to explore possible differences in cost-effectiveness. Results The analysis found that having suffered a previous similar depression is strongly correlated with a lower NB, independent of the outcome measure or follow-up point. In patients with previous similar depression, adding an selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) to supportive care for mild-to-moderate depression is probably cost-effective at the level used by the English National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence to make recommendations. This analysis highlights the need for incorporation of econometric methods into cost-effectiveness analyses using the NB approach.

  20. A cost comparison of alternative regimens for treatment-refractory partial seizure disorder: an econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Won Chan; Hoffmann, Marc S; Arcona, Steve; D'Souza, Joseph; Wang, Qin; Pashos, Chris L

    2005-10-01

    Partial seizure disorder is typically treated by monotherapy with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). However, when the condition is refractory to the initial treatment regimen, patients may be switched to monotherapy with another AED or to combination therapy with the initial AED plus a second AED. The purpose of this study was to examine the economic costs associated with treatment-refractory partial seizure disorder and to compare the costs of 2 alternative approaches: a switch to oxcarbazepine (OXC) monotherapy or the addition to the regimen of another AED (AED add-on). Adult patients with a diagnosis of partial seizure disorder who received initial AED monotherapy between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2003, were identified from the PharMetrics Patient-Centric Database, a health plan administrative claims database. The medical and pharmacy history of these patients was analyzed from 6 months before a change to either OXC monotherapy or AED add-on therapy through 12 months after the change in treatment. Total health care resource utilization and the associated costs were compared within each cohort before and after the change, as well as between cohorts, with statistical differences tested using Wilcoxon rank sum tests. Multivariate econometric analyses were performed to examine the impact of age, sex, geographic location, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and the presence of specific comorbidities. Demographic and clinical characteristics 102 were similar between the OXC monotherapy cohort (n = 259) and the AED add-on cohort (n = 795). Annual direct treatment costs increased in both groups in the period after the failure of initial monotherapy, increasing from 10,462 US dollars to 11,360 US dollars in the OXC cohort and from 10,137 US dollars to 12,201 US dollars in the AED add on cohort (P < 0.01). Increased pharmacy costs were the primary driver behind cost increases in both cohorts. Patients in the AED add-on cohort were significantly more likely to have an emergency

  1. Putting a price on carbon. Econometric essays on the European Union emissions trading scheme and its impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aatola, P.

    2013-06-01

    This dissertation examines the main instrument of the European Union climate policy, the emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) during its first years. Emission trading provides a cost-efficient way to reduce emissions. It creates a price on carbon dioxide and thereby incentives for cleaner production. The four empirical studies in this dissertation provide new information on the price determination in the emissions trading market, market efficiency and market interactions with the electricity markets. This information is useful for many purposes. It benefits the market participants who make choice between trading of emission allowances in the market and abatement of emissions. For the authorities and policy planners the price signal and the efficiency of the markets reveal unique real-time information on marginal abatement costs, impacts of policy decisions and impacts of institutional design of this policy instrument. To be a well-functioning policy instrument the EU ETS should create a credible price signal and efficient markets for trading allowances. The objective of this dissertation is to analyze the EU ETS markets and the price of the European Union emissions allowance, EUA, with econometric time series models. A large data set on market fundamentals is used to analyze the price series. The results of this dissertation reveal that EU ETS is functions well. Carbon has a price that reflects to a large extent the market fundamentals in the study period. The markets are maturing even if not fully informational efficient yet. Interactions with electricity markets are close. The impact of price of carbon on the price of electricity is positive but spatially uneven. In the long run, also climate change affects the electricity bill. The first study of this dissertation investigates the price determination in the market. The empirical results based on years 2005-2011 show that the price of the EUA is largely determined by the market fundamentals. Especially the price of

  2. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed....

  3. Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Niels Framroze

    2008-01-01

    Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the econo......Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity...... parameters of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. The general-partial equilibrium distinction is also discussed....

  4. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

    2010-05-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. DETERMINATION OF THE YIELD OF COFFEE IN THE BASIC UNIT OF COOPERATIVE PRODUCTION (UBPC "LA JUBA" THROUGH ECONOMETRICS TECHNIQUE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramón Rodríguez-Betancourt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the Economic Program of the VI Congress of Comunist Party regarding the coffee agroindustry as agreement the following posittions: "To impel the development of the coffee activities to contribute to the gradual recovery of the traditional exportable funds". This sense, the process of planning the coffee harvest suggest the improvement of the fundamental indicators of this process. The coffee estimate is a primary indicator of harvest and other important indicators depend from him, among those the coffee production and the determination of other inputs of harvest. The objective of this work is to use econometrics technique, for the calculation of the coffee estimate in the Arabic variety in the UBPC "La Juba", belonging to the Coffee Company "Segundo Frente" It is demonstrated that using the econometrics technique the results comes closer to the real with more precision that the obtained by the  programmer, in 75 %. In a same way it is obtained as a result, the evaluation of the weight that it have in the yields the productive factors. In this case, when reconciling the analysis cost-benefit, with the study of the regression coefficients it was demonstrated that the most incident factor is the denominated Cultural Attentions. 

  6. 后危机时期公允价值计量模式的应用分析%The Application of Fair Value Econometric Mode in Post-Crisis Era

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吕玮

    2013-01-01

    In the collation and analysis process of accounting information, accounting measurement is the core of an accounting informa-tion calculation system. The computing method of fair value is more applicable to the modern accounting information system as it reflects a fair principle. As the most related measurement attribute to financial instruments, the superiority of the fair value econometric mode can better define assets and liabilities and raise the relativity of accounting information effectively. It is noticeable that under the context of a market economy, the financial accounting of the fair value econometric model has a few faults reflecting mainly by the poor reliability of in-formation quality, increasing the fluctuation of accounting statements. To solve the problems concerning the application of the fair value e-conometric model, efforts should be put into improving market order, disclosing financial information of fair value, and raising professional quality of accounting personnel and the quality of enterprise accounting statements.%在会计信息的整理和分析过程中,会计计量是会计信息计算系统的核心。公允价值的计算方法更加适合现代会计信息系统,公允价值的计量模式体现了公平原则。公允价值计量模式的优越性更能体现资产负债的定义,能够有效提高财务信息的相关性,公允价值是金融工具最相关的计量属性。需要注意的是在市场经济条件下,公允价值计量模式的会计核算仍然存在不少的缺陷,主要表现是信息质量可靠性差,会增加会计报表的波动性。改进公允价值计量模式使用中的问题,应完善市场秩序,加强对公允价值财务信息的披露,提高会计工作人员的业务素质,提升企业财务报表信息质量。

  7. Time Series Modeling of Army Mission Command Communication Networks: An Event-Driven Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    Lehmann, D. R. (1984). How advertising affects sales: Meta- analysis of econometric results. Journal of Marketing Research , 21, 65-74. Barabási, A. L...317-357. Leone, R. P. (1983). Modeling sales-advertising relationships: An integrated time series- econometric approach. Journal of Marketing ... Research , 20, 291-295. McGrath, J. E., & Kravitz, D. A. (1982). Group research. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 195- 230. Monge, P. R., & Contractor

  8. Geographical Network Analysis and Spatial Econometrics as Tools to Enhance Our Understanding of Student Migration Patterns and Benefits in the U.S. Higher Education Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    González Canché, Manuel S.

    2018-01-01

    This study measures the extent to which student outmigration outside the 4-year sector takes place and posits that the benefits from attracting non-resident students exist regardless of sector of enrollment. The study also provides empirical evidence about the relevance of employing geographical network analysis (GNA) and spatial econometrics in…

  9. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  10. How many times again will we examine the energy-income nexus using a limited range of traditional econometric tools?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karanfil, Fatih

    2009-01-01

    During the last three decades, following closely the developments in econometric theory, energy and environmental economists have empirically examined the energy-income nexus for different countries and time periods. However, today, in spite of the growing interest in this area, the state of knowledge is still controversial and unsettled. This viewpoint paper attempts to highlight some of the issues related to the existing literature on the long-run relationship and causality between energy consumption and economic growth. In particular, it discusses how it is difficult to make policy recommendations on the basis of inconsistent and conflicting results in the published literature on the subject. In order to do so, the paper first illustrates the increasing trend in the number of studies published in this area providing also a brief comparison of the conventional methods used to estimate the energy-income nexus. It then deals with new directions and different viewpoints on the same issue

  11. What drives the change in China's energy intensity: Combining decomposition analysis and econometric analysis at the provincial level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Feng; Zheng, Xinye

    2012-01-01

    We employ decomposition analysis and econometric analysis to investigate the driving forces behind China's changing energy intensity using a provincial-level panel data set for the period from 1995 to 2009. The decomposition analysis indicates that: (a) all of the provinces except for a few experienced efficiency improvement, while around three-fourths of the provinces' economics became more energy intensive or remained unchanged; (b) consequently the efficiency improvement accounts for more than 90% of China's energy intensity change as opposed to the economic structural change. The econometric analysis shows that the rising income plays a significant role in the reduction of energy intensity while the effect of energy price is relatively limited. The result may reflect the urgency of deregulating the price and establishing a market-oriented pricing system in China's energy sector. The implementation of the energy intensity reduction policies in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan (FYP) has helped reverse the increasing trend of energy intensity since 2002. Although the Chinese Government intended to change the industry-led economic growth pattern, it seems that most of the policy effects flow through the efficiency improvement as opposed to the economic structure adjustment. More fundamental changes to the economic structure are needed to achieve more sustainable progress in energy intensity reduction. - Highlights: ► We examine the determinants of China's energy intensity change at provincial level. ► Rising income plays a significant role in reducing China's energy intensity. ► Policy effects mainly flow through the efficiency improvement. ► Fundamental structure changes are needed to further reduce China's energy intensity.

  12. Modeling and forecasting the supply of oil and gas: a survey of existing approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    This paper surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling. The models fall into two broad categories: geologic/engineering and econometric. Two types of geologic/engineering models are surveyed - play analysis, or simulation models and discovery process models. A third category of supply models, 'hybrids', which contain features of both econometric and discovery process models are also discussed. Particular attention is paid to whether or not the models have linkages between a dynamic model of producer optimizing behaviour and the factors governing supply of the resource; whether or not expectations of future prices, costs, and other stochastic variables are incorporated; whether the physical characteristics of non-renewable resources are captured; and how well the models perform. The paper concludes that the best path for future research efforts is a hybrid approach where the econometric component is derived from a stochastic dynamic optimization model of exploration behaviour. 51 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  13. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-12-31

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Modelling gas markets - a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This report reviews research of relevance to the analysis of present and future developments of the European natural gas market. The research activities considered are confined to (1) numerical models for gas markets, (2) analyses of energy demand, and (3) analyses of behaviour and cost structures in the transmission and distribution sector. Most of the market models are strictly micro economic and assume perfect competition or a game-theoretical equilibrium. They use sophisticated solution concepts, but very simplified specifications of supply and demand functions. Most of the research on demand is econometric analyses. These have more detailed model specification than have the aggregated market models. It is found, however, that the econometric literature based on neo-classical economics has not yielded unambiguous results and the specifications disregard important real world aspects of gas demand. The section on demand concludes that the extent of the gas grid is an important determinant for gas demand, but there has been virtually no research on what determines this variable. Data about transmission and distribution of gas in Europe is scarce and only a few non-econometric and virtually no econometric analyses are available. However, some conclusions can be made from relevant North American literature: (1) there has been significant autonomous technical progress in the transmission industry, (2) distribution costs strongly depend on geographical and other conditions, and (3) ownership, whether private or public, may be important for distribution costs and pricing policies. 56 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  15. Inequality, race, and mortality in U.S. cities: a political and econometric review of Deaton and Lubotsky (56:6, 1139-1153, 2003).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ash, Michael; Robinson, Dean E

    2009-06-01

    Our replication of Deaton and Lubotsky's [(2003). Mortality, inequality and race in American cities and states. Social Science & Medicine, 56.] study "Mortality, Inequality and Race in American Cities and States" identifies a coding error in the econometric analysis in the original paper. Correcting the error changes the basic results of the paper with respect to inequality and mortality in a relevant and substantive way. We also propose an alternative interpretation of the other main result of the paper regarding racial composition and mortality.

  16. An econometric investigation of impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil carbon and yield risk: A potential for climate change mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Kato, Edward; Nkonya, Ephraim; Place, Frank; Mwanjalolo, Majaliwa

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the impacts of sustainable land management practices on soil carbon stocks and also impacts of soil carbon on the mean and variance of crop production using econometric tools. Using a cross-sectional plot-level dataset collected from three agroecological zones of Uganda with soil carbon measured at a depth of 0 to 15 centimeters, our results have robustly shown that irrigation, fertilizers, improved fallow, crop residues, mulching, and trash lines are positively and significant...

  17. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

    2002-07-01

    Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. The stability of coupled renewal-differential equations with econometric applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoten, R. P.; Aggarwal, J. K.

    1969-01-01

    Concepts and results are presented in the fields of mathematical modeling, economics, and stability analysis. A coupled renewal-differential equation structure is presented as a modeling form for systems possessing hereditary characteristics, and this structure is applied to a model of the Austrian theory of business cycles. For realistic conditions, the system is shown to have an infinite number of poles, and conditions are presented which are both necessary and sufficient for all poles to lie strictly in the left half plane.

  19. An econometric analysis of willingness-to-pay for sustainable development. A case study of the Volcji Potok landscape area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verbic, Miroslav; Slabe-Erker, Renata

    2009-01-01

    When the market for a certain good is competitive enough, economic activities can be studied by the market pricing mechanism. Because this is usually not feasible in case of environmental goods with embodied natural and cultural heritage, particular methods for economic valuation of such goods have to be applied. The present article represents the economic valuation of the Landscape Development and Protection Area of Volcji Potok, which is an important Slovenian cultural landscape area with internationally recognized qualities. For this purpose we combined classical contingent valuation with a closed-version of discrete choice method, where the protest responses have been removed. By using econometric analysis we obtained the value of willingness-to-pay and established its determinants. We also made an attempt to control for different biases that arise in such analyses. At last, we used the adjusted average individual value of willingness-to-pay to calculate the aggregate willingness-to-pay. The present analysis represents one of the very few applications of the method to Central and Eastern European countries. (author)

  20. Do health care workforce, population, and service provision significantly contribute to the total health expenditure? An econometric analysis of Serbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santric-Milicevic, M; Vasic, V; Terzic-Supic, Z

    2016-08-15

    In times of austerity, the availability of econometric health knowledge assists policy-makers in understanding and balancing health expenditure with health care plans within fiscal constraints. The objective of this study is to explore whether the health workforce supply of the public health care sector, population number, and utilization of inpatient care significantly contribute to total health expenditure. The dependent variable is the total health expenditure (THE) in Serbia from the years 2003 to 2011. The independent variables are the number of health workers employed in the public health care sector, population number, and inpatient care discharges per 100 population. The statistical analyses include the quadratic interpolation method, natural logarithm and differentiation, and multiple linear regression analyses. The level of significance is set at P Total health expenditure increased by 1.21 standard deviations, with an increase in health workforce growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Furthermore, this rate decreased by 1.12 standard deviations, with an increase in (negative) population growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Finally, the growth rate increased by 0.38 standard deviation, with an increase of the growth rate of inpatient care discharges per 100 population by 1 standard deviation (P < 0.001). Study results demonstrate that the government has been making an effort to control strongly health budget growth. Exploring causality relationships between health expenditure and health workforce is important for countries that are trying to consolidate their public health finances and achieve universal health coverage at the same time.

  1. Sir Clive Granger’s contributions to nonlinear time series and econometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Terasvirta, Timo

    Clive Granger had a wide range of reseach interests and has worked in a number of areas. In this work the focus is on his contributions to nonlinear time series models and modelling. Granger's contributions to a few other aspects of nonlinearity are reviewed as well....

  2. Valuing structure, model uncertainty and model averaging in vector autoregressive processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractEconomic policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on accurate econometric modeling. However, a decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, while an analyst must also be interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on

  3. Income Distribution Over Educational Levels: A Simple Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinbergen, Jan

    An econometric model is formulated that explains income per person in various compartments of the labor market defined by three main levels of education and by education required. The model enables an estimation of the effect of increased access to education on that distribution. The model is based on a production for the economy as a whole; a…

  4. Electricity demand by the commercial sector in Kuwait: an econometric analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.; Hajeeh, M.

    1999-01-01

    This paper models and estimates electricity demand by the Kuwaiti commercial sector, using an error correction model. It also simulates the estimated model under three scenarios and presents an analysis of the results. The empirical results indicate that short- and long-run electricity consumption and the level of economic activity are interrelated. The forecasts show that electricity consumption varies directly with economic growth. They also suggest that an increase of 100 per cent in nominal electricity prices will lead to a reduction in commercial sector electricity demand of 45 per cent by the year 2010. The simulation of the model under the different scenarios demonstrates that the potential for energy conservation exists in the commercial sector

  5. Demand for energy in rural and urban centres of Ethiopia; An econometric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kidane, Asmerom (Addis Ababa Univ. (ET). Dept. of Statistics)

    1991-04-01

    The paper starts by briefly discussing the current energy situation in Ethiopia. The major source of energy in Ethiopia is traditional and the major consumer is the household. A simple model of household utility function where energy consumption is the major variable is developed and a reduced form is derived. To make the model operational a simultaneous equation system describing the demand for and supply of traditional and modern energy sources has been specified. The model is closed by equating the demand for energy with the supply. Data from the national energy survey were used to estimate the model. The major finding of the study is that price of traditional energy plays an important role in the consumption of fuelwood and other traditional energy sources. By manipulating the price variable the government may be able to control the high rate of depletion of forest resources. (author).

  6. An econometric study of alcohol consumption and associated risky and antisocial behaviour

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Ou

    2017-01-01

    This thesis, using two national individual-level datasets, undertakes an investigation of Australian consumers’ irresponsible behaviour with alcohol abuse and Australian households’ alcohol purchasing behaviour, by means of microeconometric modelling and demand system modelling techniques. The four self-contained but related studies carried out in this thesis provide valuable empirical evidence to inform alcohol tax policy formulation and other educational and regulatory measures. This thesis...

  7. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Robert M; Urzua, Sergio S

    2009-09-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest.

  8. Econometric estimation of Armington elasticities for selected agricultural products in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abiodun Ogundeji

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Price transmission behaviour is used to model the impacts of different trade regimes; if this behaviour is not modelled correctly, the trade impacts can be either under- or overestimated.  Due to the lack of elasticities of substitution pertaining to selected imported and domestically produced agricultural products in South Africa, ‘Armington’ elasticities, using quarterly data from 1995-2006 and three different models, based on the time series properties of the data, are estimated in this paper.  Considering the long-run elasticity results, soyabeans (whether broken or not and meat of bovine animals (frozen are the most sensitive import products, followed by maize, meat of bovine animals (fresh or chilled, sunflower seeds, and wheat and meslin. Regarding the short-run elasticity, soyabeans are the most sensitive import product, followed by meat of bovine animals (fresh or chilled; meat of swine (fresh, chilled or frozen is the least sensitive import product.

  9. Modeling financial time series with S-plus

    CERN Document Server

    Zivot, Eric

    2003-01-01

    The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Washington, and is co-director of the nascent Professional Master's Program in Computational Finance He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the He...

  10. From deficit to surplus: An econometric analysis of US trade balance in forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daowei Zhang; Ying Lin; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2017-01-01

    Although the US trade deficit has persisted since 1975, the country changed in 2009 from a net importer to a net exporter of forest products, emerging as the world's largest exporter of forest products. Drawing on recent data, we model the real dollar value of US exports, imports, and the trade balance in forest products to identify factors likely to explain this...

  11. Spatial econometric analysis of factors influencing regional energy efficiency in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Malin; Chen, Yu; An, Qingxian

    2018-05-01

    Increased environmental pollution and energy consumption caused by the country's rapid development has raised considerable public concern, and has become the focus of the government and public. This study employs the super-efficiency slack-based model-data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) to measure the total factor energy efficiency of 30 provinces in China. The estimation model for the spatial interaction intensity of regional total factor energy efficiency is based on Wilson's maximum entropy model. The model is used to analyze the factors that affect the potential value of total factor energy efficiency using spatial dynamic panel data for 30 provinces during 2000-2014. The study found that there are differences and spatial correlations of energy efficiency among provinces and regions in China. The energy efficiency in the eastern, central, and western regions fluctuated significantly, and was mainly because of significant energy efficiency impacts on influences of industrial structure, energy intensity, and technological progress. This research is of great significance to China's energy efficiency and regional coordinated development.

  12. The influence of the weather on recreational behaviour: a micro econometric approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berkhout, P.H.G.; Brouwer, N.M.

    2005-01-01

    In this article the relationship between the weather and water-based recreational behavior is investigated at the microlevel. The relation is estimated by applying a zero-inflated negative binomial count model on a large dataset consisting of individually reported day-tripping behavior during a

  13. Social Security and Saving: A Time-Series Econometrics Pedagogical Example (With "R" Code)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wassell, Charles S., Jr.

    2018-01-01

    In 1974, and then again in 1996, Martin Feldstein published studies of the impact of the Social Security system on private saving in the U.S. economy. He found that Social Security depressed personal saving by a substantial amount--up to 50 percent. The author uses the Feldstein data and empirical models in this article to illustrate the steps in…

  14. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

  15. Modelling conditional heteroscedasticity in nonstationary series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, P.; Cizek, P.; Härdle, W.K.; Weron, R.

    2011-01-01

    A vast amount of econometrical and statistical research deals with modeling financial time series and their volatility, which measures the dispersion of a series at a point in time (i.e., conditional variance). Although financial markets have been experiencing many shorter and longer periods of

  16. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  17. Energy-Extended CES Aggregate Production: Current Aspects of Their Specification and Econometric Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul E. Brockway

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Capital–labour–energy Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES production functions and their estimated parameters now form a key part of energy–economy models which inform energy and emissions policy. However, the collation and guidance as to the specification and estimation choices involved with such energy-extended CES functions is disparate. This risks poorly specified and estimated CES functions, with knock-on implications for downstream energy–economic models and climate policy. In response, as a first step, this paper assembles in one place the major considerations involved in the empirical estimation of these CES functions. Discussions of the choices and their implications lead to recommendations for CES empiricists. The extensive bibliography allows those interested to dig deeper into any aspect of the CES parameter estimation process.

  18. To drill or not to drill? An econometric analysis of US public opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mukherjee, Deep; Rahman, Mohammad Arshad

    2016-01-01

    Offshore drilling in the United States (US) has been the subject of public and political discourse due to multiple reasons which include economic impact, energy security, and environmental hazard. Consequently, several polls have been conducted over time to gauge public attitude towards offshore drilling. Nevertheless, the economic literature on this issue is sparse. This paper contributes to the literature and analyzes support for offshore drilling based on demographic, economic, social, belief, and shock (e.g. spill) factors. The data is taken from ten nationwide surveys conducted before, during and after the British Petroleum (BP) oil spill and analyzed within the framework of discrete choice model. The results from an ordinal probit model demonstrate that age, annual household income, affiliation to Republican Party, and residence in oil-rich states positively affect the probability of strong support and reduce the probability of strong opposition for offshore drilling. In contrast, the female gender, higher education, association to Democratic Party, and environmental concern affect opinion in opposite direction. Marginal effects show that belief about environmental consequences of drilling has the highest impact on opinion. Binary probit model also yields a similar result and suggests that BP oil disaster resulted in a transient decrease in support for offshore drilling. - Highlights: •US public opinion on offshore drilling is analyzed based on ten national polls. •Ordinal and binary probit models are utilized to identify the underlying factors that shape public opinion. •Belief about environmental cost of drilling and educational attainment have the highest negative impact on opinion. •Age, income, affiliation to Republican party and oil-rich states positively affect support for drilling. •BP oil spill resulted in a transient decrease in support for offshore drilling.

  19. Modeling Chaotic Behavior of Chittagong Stock Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shipra Banik

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model.

  20. Do hospitals respond to rivals' quality and efficiency? A spatial panel econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Francesco; Siciliani, Luigi; Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita

    2017-09-01

    We investigate whether hospitals in the English National Health Service change their quality or efficiency in response to changes in quality or efficiency of neighbouring hospitals. We first provide a theoretical model that predicts that a hospital will not respond to changes in the efficiency of its rivals but may change its quality or efficiency in response to changes in the quality of rivals, though the direction of the response is ambiguous. We use data on eight quality measures (including mortality, emergency readmissions, patient reported outcome, and patient satisfaction) and six efficiency measures (including bed occupancy, cancelled operations, and costs) for public hospitals between 2010/11 and 2013/14 to estimate both spatial cross-sectional and spatial fixed- and random-effects panel data models. We find that although quality and efficiency measures are unconditionally spatially correlated, the spatial regression models suggest that a hospital's quality or efficiency does not respond to its rivals' quality or efficiency, except for a hospital's overall mortality that is positively associated with that of its rivals. The results are robust to allowing for spatially correlated covariates and errors and to instrumenting rivals' quality and efficiency. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. A study of dynamic econometric relationship between urbanization and service industries growth in china

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Congjun Cheng

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The paper is going to analyze that there are dynamic quantitative relationships between Chinese urbanization and service industry.Design/methodology/approach: According to the index number of value-added of service industry and town population/ total population ratio during the year of 1978 to 2012 in China, the paper is designed with models which are analyzed by ADF test, co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, finally get the conclusion.Findings: The paper achieves the two conclusions, one is that urbanization is the important power of service industry’s growth; the other is that the level of urbanization improves the level of service industry recently.Originality/value: Chinese urbanization and service industry have close relationship, and they also have dynamic changes. The paper studies their dynamic changes through collecting a lot of data from the year 1978 to 2010 and developing models to make quantitative analysis, for example, tables and quotations in the paper are the best proof. At last, the paper also puts forward some suggestions after get the conclusion that Chinese urbanization is the motive power to the growth of service industry.

  2. ECONOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF CONTRIBUTION OF FAMILY POULTRY TO WOMEN’S INCOME IN NIGER-DELTA, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R ALABI

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This study shows that family poultry husbandry, business activities and paid employment contribute 35%, 30% and 18% respectively to the household income of women in Niger Delta, Nigeria. The average income from family poultry is N16, 784.53 ($124.33, which is about 25% and 50% of national minimum wage and per capita income in Nigeria respectively. The major constraints to the family poultry in the study area are disease and pest, pilfering and lack of capital. The econometric analysis indicates that wage, business and family poultry income are significant determinants of income of women in the study area. The estimated regression coefficients are, 0.35, 0.32 and 0.19 for wage, business and family poultry income respectively. This suggests that if wage income, business income and family poultry income increase by 100%, total income of the women will increase by 35%, 32% and 19% respectively. This indicates that family poultry husbandry has third rating in potentially influencing women income in the study area. It is recommended from the study that the contribution of family poultry to total income of the women can be improved through proper medication and vaccination of their birds with vaccines that are stable under tropical environment. It is also imperative that semi intensive, if not intensive, rearing technology should be considered as a reasonable option if the problem of pilfering is to be addressed. Improving the capital base of the women through formation of cooperating and micro-credit schemes should also be a welcome development in addressing the problem of lack of capital.

  3. Does foreign direct investment affect environmental pollution in China's cities? A spatial econometric perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qianqian; Wang, Shaojian; Zhang, Wenzhong; Zhan, Dongsheng; Li, Jiaming

    2018-02-01

    Environmental pollution has aroused extensive concern worldwide. Existing literature on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and environmental pollution has, however, seldom taken into account spatial effects. Addressing this gap, this paper investigated the spatial agglomeration effects and dynamics at work in FDI and environmental pollution (namely, in waste soot and dust, sulfur dioxide, and wastewater) in 285 Chinese cities during the period 2003-2014, using global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation. Our results showed significant spatial autocorrelation in FDI and environmental pollution levels, both of which demonstrated obvious path dependence characteristics in their geographical distribution. A range of agglomeration regions were observed. The high-value and low-value agglomeration areas of FDI were not fully consistent with those of environmental pollution. This result indicates that higher inflows of FDI did not necessarily lead to greater environmental pollution from a geographic perspective, and vice versa. Spatial panel data models were further adopted to explore the impact of FDI on environmental pollution. The results of a spatial lag model (SLM) and a spatial error model (SEM) revealed that the inflow of FDI had distinct effects on different environmental pollutants, thereby confirming the Pollution Heaven Hypothesis and Pollution Halo Hypothesis. The inflow of FDI was found to have reduced waste soot and dust pollution to a certain extent, while it increased the degree of wastewater and sulfur dioxide pollution. The findings set out in this paper hold significant implications for Chinese environmental pollution protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Defense Spending, Growth And Inequality, 1970-2008: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyhan TAŞ

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between defense expentures, income inequality and growth in Turkey for the period of 1970-2008. In the study, the problem of lack of time series data has been overcome by using manufacturing pay inequality index constructed by Theil T Statistic. Although there are numerous studies that examine the different aspects of military spending in Turkey, there are few studies that analyse the impact of military spending on income distribution in Turkey. Considering this lack in the literature, the study, utilizing basic cointegration and VAR model, aims to contribute to the literaure

  5. Statistical vs. Economic Significance in Economics and Econometrics: Further comments on McCloskey & Ziliak

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom

    I comment on the controversy between McCloskey & Ziliak and Hoover & Siegler on statistical versus economic significance, in the March 2008 issue of the Journal of Economic Methodology. I argue that while McCloskey & Ziliak are right in emphasizing 'real error', i.e. non-sampling error that cannot...... be eliminated through specification testing, they fail to acknowledge those areas in economics, e.g. rational expectations macroeconomics and asset pricing, where researchers clearly distinguish between statistical and economic significance and where statistical testing plays a relatively minor role in model...

  6. Econometric testing on linear and nonlinear dynamic relation between stock prices and macroeconomy in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borjigin, Sumuya; Yang, Yating; Yang, Xiaoguang; Sun, Leilei

    2018-03-01

    Many researchers have realized that there is a strong correlation between stock prices and macroeconomy. In order to make this relationship clear, a lot of studies have been done. However, the causal relationship between stock prices and macroeconomy has still not been well explained. A key point is that, most of the existing research adopts linear and stable models to investigate the correlation of stock prices and macroeconomy, while the real causality of that may be nonlinear and dynamic. To fill this research gap, we investigate the nonlinear and dynamic causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomy. Based on the case of China's stock prices and acroeconomy measures from January 1992 to March 2017, we compare the linear Granger causality test models with nonlinear ones. Results demonstrate that the nonlinear dynamic Granger causality is much stronger than linear Granger causality. From the perspective of nonlinear dynamic Granger causality, China's stock prices can be viewed as "national economic barometer". On the one hand, this study will encourage researchers to take nonlinearity and dynamics into account when they investigate the correlation of stock prices and macroeconomy; on the other hand, our research can guide regulators and investors to make better decisions.

  7. Econometric analysis on oil-substituting energy; Sekiyu daigae energy keiryo bunseki chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-03-01

    This is a fiscal 1991 report on the investigation having been carried out for the past 6 years by the Institute of energy Economics contracting with NEDO. The report is to make an overall evaluation of various aspects seen in the development of petroleum substitution energy in relation with the environmental problem. Various kinds of simulations are conducted by developing the industrial related model which can analyse effects of CO{sub 2} emmission control measures exerted on Japan{prime}s microeconomics such as the industrial structure, based on the analytical model which was developed by the fiscal 1990. For example, in establishment of 4 cases such as a standard case, a carbon tax imposition case, an industrial structure arrangement case and a high efficiency-new energy promotion case, signs are seen like that the primary energy supply in 2010 will decrease with heightening of energy price and improvement of consumption efficiency from 740 million kl in crude oil in the standard case to 620 million kl in the high efficiency-new energy promotion case, and CO{sub 2} emission will decrease from 440 million tons to 350 million tons. 14 refs., 65 figs., 114 tabs.

  8. Econometric analysis on oil-substituting energy. Sekiyu daigae energy keiryo bunseki chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-03-01

    This is a fiscal 1991 report on the investigation having been carried out for the past 6 years by the Institute of energy Economics contracting with NEDO. The report is to make an overall evaluation of various aspects seen in the development of petroleum substitution energy in relation with the environmental problem. Various kinds of simulations are conducted by developing the industrial related model which can analyse effects of CO{sub 2} emmission control measures exerted on Japan{prime}s microeconomics such as the industrial structure, based on the analytical model which was developed by the fiscal 1990. For example, in establishment of 4 cases such as a standard case, a carbon tax imposition case, an industrial structure arrangement case and a high efficiency-new energy promotion case, signs are seen like that the primary energy supply in 2010 will decrease with heightening of energy price and improvement of consumption efficiency from 740 million kl in crude oil in the standard case to 620 million kl in the high efficiency-new energy promotion case, and CO{sub 2} emission will decrease from 440 million tons to 350 million tons. 14 refs., 65 figs., 114 tabs.

  9. An econometric analysis of residential consumption of fuelwood in a mountainous prefecture of Northern Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arabatzis, G.; Malesios, Ch.

    2011-01-01

    Biomass is a renewable energy source of increasing importance, especially since the energy policies of countries today are largely focused on renewable energy. It is a renewable energy source with significant potential to contribute to the energy needs of modern society, both for developing and developed countries around the world. One very important source of biomass is wood and fuelwood in particular. This article aims at providing an empirical analysis of household fuelwood consumption and the determinants of the choice to use the specific energy for heating and cooking in a district of Northern Greece. In the current empirical analysis several household fuelwood consumption models are employed, such as GLM, Tobit and Heckman regression-based techniques. The results show that household sociological and economical characteristics as well as more general environmental issues are suitable to explain differences towards fuelwood consumption for space heating and cooking. We additionally evaluate the household fuelwood consumption for heating through the statistical analyses conducted. - Highlights: ► In this study we provide an empirical analysis of household fuel wood consumption. ► Determinants of the choice of specific energy for heating/cooking in Northern Greece are examined. ► Several household fuelwood consumption models are employed (GLM, Tobit and Heckman). ► Household's sociological/economical characteristics are suitable to explain fuel wood consumption. ► Also more general environmental issues explain differences towards fuel wood consumption.

  10. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of econometric source discovery for large data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Bergem, Rutger; Jenkins, Jeffrey; Benachenhou, Dalila; Szu, Harold

    2014-05-01

    that are operating with the label of `Going-Concern' and firms labeled according to institutional influence they may be experiencing, such as constraints on firm hiring/spending while in a Bankruptcy or a Merger procedure. Uncovering invariant features, or behavioral data metrics from observable firm data in an economy can greatly benefit the FED, World Bank, etc. We find that the ML/LDA communities can benefit from Economic intuitions just as much as Economists can benefit from generic data exploration tools. The future of successful Economic data understanding, modeling, simulation, and visualization can be amplified by new A-LDA models and approaches for new and analogous models of Economic system dynamics. The potential benefits of improved economic data analysis and real time decision aid tools are numerous for researchers, analysts, and federal agencies who all deal with increasingly large amounts of complex data to support their decision making.

  11. Modeling new product sales; an application of cointegration analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers an econometric model for new product sales, which extends the deterministic Gompertz process by allowing the saturation level to depend on forcing variables. It turns out that this model can be written in error correction form. Given that many marketing variables

  12. An approximate fractional Gaussian noise model with computational cost

    KAUST Repository

    Sø rbye, Sigrunn H.; Myrvoll-Nilsen, Eirik; Rue, Haavard

    2017-01-01

    Fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) is a stationary time series model with long memory properties applied in various fields like econometrics, hydrology and climatology. The computational cost in fitting an fGn model of length $n$ using a likelihood

  13. Econometric analysis of exchange rate in Serbia and its influence on agricultural sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pažun Brankica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to empirically estimate equilibrium exchange rate level of Serbian dinar. In that purpose reduced form equilibrium real exchange rate approach (ERER is used, developed by IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER. The research was made by using ARDL approach in the single-country analysis. It has been started from dynamic model which has described relation between real effective exchange rate and a set of fundamental variables. Bound test has been provided due to determination of the long-term relationship existence between variables. F-statistics has been used for long-term relationship testing between dependent variable and set of indicators. Since assumptions were met, least squares method was used for coefficient estimation. The results have shown constant dinar's overvaluation over medium term.

  14. The Spatial Econometric Analysis of China’s Banking Competition and Its Influential Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Li

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper determines alternative indexes to measure banking competition from the perspective of industrial economics. Spatial correlation of competition in China’s banking environment is studied from the perspective of spatial economics. A spatial panel data model is built to make an empirical study of factors influencing banking competition. The results show that the global autocorrelation test index Moran’s I indicates that China’s banking competition has obvious spatial correlation characteristics and significant spatial clustering. The space LISA map indicates that banking competition in most provinces has the characteristics of spatial dependence, and only a few provinces have the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Human capital, economic growth, financial scale of development, and foreign direct investment all have a significant positive effect on improving the degree of banking competition. Government intervention has a significant negative impact on the degree of banking competition, while fixed asset investment has no significant impact on it.

  15. THE QUESTION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF OIL REFINING IN RUSSIA: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolov A. V.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The relations between the financial statements’ figures of the complex of refining companies - the core of Russian refining industry from 2006 to 2013 - were analyzed using component and regression analysis from the standpoint of the effectiveness of their activities during the modernization period. Through the component analysis the main factors that influenced the final financial results of the enterprises during the given period were determined. Regression models of panel data with fixed and random effects were made for 19 enterprises. Regression analysis revealed no statistically significant dependencies of the efficiency (profitability on the production scale (enterprise revenue. The dynamics of certain types of expenses were analyzed in order to explain the differences in the profitability dynamics. It revealed virtually no difference in the values of the individual effects of enterprises in different areas of specialization (profile.

  16. Identifiability in stochastic models

    CERN Document Server

    1992-01-01

    The problem of identifiability is basic to all statistical methods and data analysis, occurring in such diverse areas as Reliability Theory, Survival Analysis, and Econometrics, where stochastic modeling is widely used. Mathematics dealing with identifiability per se is closely related to the so-called branch of ""characterization problems"" in Probability Theory. This book brings together relevant material on identifiability as it occurs in these diverse fields.

  17. An econometric analysis of the effects of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo-Manzano, José I; Castro-Nuño, Mercedes; Pedregal, Diego J

    2010-07-01

    This article seeks to quantify the effects of the penalty points system driver's license during the 18-month period following its coming into force. This is achieved by means of univariate and multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. A detailed intervention analysis is carried out in order to test for the effects and their duration of the introduction of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain. Other variables, mainly indicators of the level of economic activity in Spain, are also considered. Among the main effects, we can mention an average reduction of almost 12.6% in the number of deaths in highway accidents. It would take at least 2 years for that effect to disappear. For the rest of the safety indicator variables (vehicle occupants injured in highway accidents and vehicle occupants injured in accidents built-up areas) the effects disappeared 1 year after the law coming into force. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manamba Epaphra

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an empirical analysis on the determinants of FDI inflows in Africa. The dataset used for this paper spans from 1996-2016 and involves 48 African countries. For inferential analysis the paper employs random (RE effect model. Both structural factors and the quality of institutions and governance indices are examined. The key findings of the paper is that openness of the economy, GDP per capita and population growth have a substantial positive explanatory power over FDI in Africa. Similarly, control of corruption and political stability tend to exert a positive influence on FDI inflows in Africa. These findings provide some valuable insights into policy makers, practitioners, and foreign investors’ decision making. More so, to attract foreign investment in the less trade liberalized countries, Government policy should encourage further market liberalization. In the same vein, an effective policy on FDI in all economies should focus on improving production efficiency so as to raise GDP per capita and increase the market size. African Governments should also improve the quality of institutions and governance, especially in terms of enhancement of corruption control and political stability.

  19. Socioeconomic Drivers of Environmental Pollution in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianmin Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the environmental pollution and its impacts in China using prefecture-level cities and municipalities data. Moran’s I, the widely used spatial autocorrelation index, provides a fairly strong pattern of spatial clustering of environmental pollution and suggests a fairly high stability of the positive spatial correlation. To investigate the driving forces of environmental pollution and explore the relationship between fiscal decentralization, economic growth, and environmental pollution, spatial Durbin model is used for this analysis. The result shows that fiscal decentralization of local unit plays a significant role in promoting the environmental pollution and the feedback effect of fiscal decentralization on environmental pollution is also positive, though it is not significant. The relationship of GDP per capita and environmental pollution shows inverted U-shaped curve. Due to the scale effect of secondary industry, the higher the level of secondary industry development in a unit is, the easier it is to attract the secondary industry in adjacent units, which mitigates the environmental pollution in adjacent units. Densely populated areas tend to deteriorate local environment, but environmental regulation in densely populated areas is often tighter than other areas, which reduces environmental pollution to a certain extent.

  20. Disentangling the influence of cell phone usage in the dilemma zone: An econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eluru, Naveen; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar

    2016-11-01

    This paper focuses on developing an analysis framework to study the impact of cell phone treatment (cell phone type and call status) on driver behavior in the presence of a dilemma zone. Specifically, we examine how the treatment influences the driver maneuver decision at the intersection (stop or cross) and the eventual success of the maneuver. For a stop maneuver, success is defined as stopping before the stop line. Similarly, for a cross maneuver, success is defined as clearing the intersection safely before the light turns red. The eventual success or failure of the driver's decision process is dependent on the factors that affected the maneuver decision. Hence it is important to recognize the interconnectedness of the stop or cross decision with its eventual success (or failure). Toward this end, we formulate and estimate a joint framework to analyze the stop/cross decision with its eventual success (or failure) simultaneously. The study is conducted based on driving simulator data provided online for the 2014 Transportation Research Board Data Contest at http://depts.washington.edu/hfsm/upload.php. The model is estimated to analyze drivers' behavior at the onset of yellow by employing exogenous variables from three broad categories: driver characteristics, cell phone attributes and driving attributes. We also generate probability surfaces to identify dilemma zone distribution associated with different cell phone treatment types. The plots clearly illustrate the impact of various cellphone treatments on driver dilemma zone behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. ECONOMETRIC INEFFICIENCY ESTIMATES IN A COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT doi: 10.5329/RECADM.20080701001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward Bernard Bastiaan Rivera Rivera

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to apply a Cobb-Douglas, Translog Stochastic Production Function and Data Envelopment Analysis – particularly the Malmquist index - in order to estimate increases or decreases of inefficiencies over time as well as the sources of TFP changes for the main Brazilian grain crops - namely, rice, beans, maize, soybeans and wheat - throughout the most recent data available comprising the period 2001-2006. According to the Cobb Douglas model, the greatest elasticity presented is that of harvested area, followed by agricultural credit and limestone. The Translog production function presents an amelioration of aggregate productivity over time and, in a decreasing order, the Brazilian regions that have presented the greatest relative degree of efficiency are the Northeast, North, Southeast, South and Center-West regions. The results indicate that, although there have been positive changes in TFP for the sample analyzed, a decline in the use of technology has been evidenced for all the principal Brazilian grain crops between 2005/2007 – period in which we observe a remarkable downfall in the use of inputs in Brazilian agriculture.

  2. Gender Disparities in Ghana National Health Insurance Claims: An Econometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Antwi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to find out the gender disparities in Ghana national health insurance claims. In this work, data was collected from the policyholders of the Ghana National Health Insurance Scheme with the help of the National Health Insurance database and the patients’ attendance register of the Koforidua Regional Hospital, from 1st January to 31st December 2011. The generalized linear regression (GLR models and the SPSS version 17.0 were used for the analysis. Among men, the younger people prefer attending hospital for treatment as compared to their adult counterparts. In contrast to women, younger women favor attending hospital for treatment as compared to their adult counterparts. Among men, various levels of income impact greatly on their propensity to make an insurance claim, whereas among women only the highest income level did as compared to lowest income level.Men, who completed senior high school education, were less likely to make an insurance claim as compared to their counterparts with basic or no education. However it was women who had basic education that preferred using the hospital as compared to their more educated counterparts. It is suggested that the government should consider building more health centers, clinics and cheap-compounds in at least every community, to help reduce the travel time in accessing health care.  The ministry of health and the Ghana health service should engage older citizens by encouraging them to use hospitals when they are sick instead of other alternative care providers.

  3. ECONOMETRIC EVALUATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN EU & TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erygit Pinar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment, in Turkey as well as in the whole, world poses huge economic problems. When considering Turkey's economy with a continued growth but a sustainable growth trend that cannot be provided and cannot be avoided in unemployment. The concepts of unemployment and economic growth in the macro and micro level are the subject of many studies. Economists look for solutions to these problems that are faced by each country; unemployment, unemployment causes, economic growths are all concepts that are discussed. Turkey's population growth rate is high, investment and capital accumulation at the desired level cannot be performed, the quality of labor as a lack of economic and political instability, informal employment, the existence of inter-regional disparities, the lack of sufficient support in agriculture contribute to the many reasons such as unemployment, the foundation raised as an issue is caused to the end. One of the biggest problems faced by Turkey's economy has long been the problems of unemployment. Many policies have been identified and implemented to combat unemployment have been studied. High rates of growth to reduce unemployment are among the most important of these policies. The relationship between unemployment and growth for the first time was examined by Arthur M. Okun (1962. The main objective of this study with the participation of Croatia in 2013 with 28 member countries of the European Union and in Turkey for the period 2001-2011 is to examine and test the relationship between economic growth and unemployment is variable. Analysis Breitung (2000, ADF Fisher and Levin, Lin and Chu (2002 panel unit root tests, Westerlund (2007 panel cointegration tests are used. Breitung (2000, ADF Fisher and Levin, Lin and Chu (2002 tests taken by the series of first differences were stagnant. In addition, error correction model established between unemployment and economic growth Hausman tests were performed, and long-term parameters have

  4. Mood and sleep problems in adolescents and young adults: an econometric analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Settineri, Salvatore; Gitto, Lara; Conte, Fabio; Fanara, Giusy; Mallamace, Domenico; Mento, Carmela; Silvestri, Rosalia; Tati, Filippo; Zoccali, Rocco; Cordici, Francesco; Grugno, Rosario; Polimeni, Giovanni; Vitetta, Antongiulio; Bramanti, Placido

    2012-03-01

    Sleep related problems affect approximately 25-40% of children and adolescents. The acquisition of sleep patterns characterised by later bedtimes, insomnia and excessive daytime sleepiness is related to poorer school performance, daytime drowsiness, physical tiredness and a higher rate of psychiatric illnesses. Many studies have investigated the correlation between sleep and mood in children and adolescents and overall, show a positive association between sleep problems and psychiatric disorders. However, little is known about adolescents' personal perception of their psychological status as it is linked with the occurrence of mood changes and sleep-related problems. The aim of the study is to explore the impact of variables such as age, gender, education and the perception of their own psychological status (evaluated through suitable questionnaires) on the simultaneous presence of sleep disturbances and affective symptoms in a sample of adolescents. A positive correlation between these two dependent variables signals the need to intervene with proper support programs. A recursive bivariate probit model has been employed. This method allows us to take into account two dependent dummy variables and to consider the relationship between the two, presuming that one may also influence the other. The analysis has been carried out on a sample of 2,005 adolescents out of a total of 4,000 who declared their willingness to be telephonically interviewed using a questionnaire in two parts designed to obtain information about the participants sleep habits and affective symptoms. There is a positive correlation between sadness and daytime drowsiness. The estimated joint probability ranging from 5.5% to 9% in girls demonstrates a greater tendency for girls to experience both depression and altered sleep patterns. DISCUSSION AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY: Just as sadness is a key symptom of affective disorders, daytime drowsiness indicates the presence of sleep disorders caused by

  5. The primary demand for beer in the Netherlands; an application of ARMAX model specification

    OpenAIRE

    Franses, Philip Hans

    1991-01-01

    textabstractThe central issue in the application of econometric and time series analysis (ETS) to market response models is the model-building process. The author proposes a specification strategy for ETS modeling and applies it to the primary demand for beer in The Netherlands.

  6. Essays on Imperfect Knowledge Economics, Structural Change, and Persistence in the Cointegrated VAR Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabor, Morten Nyboe

    2014-01-01

    conrm the original intuition behind the attempt to combine IKE and the econometric approach based on the cointegrated VAR model, that the parameter-instability of IKE models could potentially be an important source of the persistence found empirically in estimated cointegrated VAR models...

  7. Catalog of Wargaming and Military Simulation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    OF MODELS Page U UNICORN - Conventinal/Nuclear Weapon Allocator Model ............ 785 UNREP - Underway Replenishment Model...relationships irn the model to around 4,000. The number of econometric relationships grows geometri- cdlly with the number of sectors. The sector detail...factors 784 11 I I UNICORN - Conventioiali’Nuclear Weapon Al locut( r utoYu IPITlNi NI: Of ice ot the Assi stirt Secretary uf Defense, Proyrdm Analysis

  8. A Tradeoff in Econometrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Hoornweg (Victor)

    2018-01-01

    markdownabstractThe scientific method dictates how researchers can make claims about the underlying truth by confronting prior hypotheses to a random sample of data. A fundamental task of Statistics is to allow researchers to balance their hypotheses with data-optimized results. This thesis shows

  9. Improved Testing of Distributed Lag Model in Presence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The finite distributed lag models (DLM) are often used in econometrics and statistics. Application of the ordinary least square (OLS) directly on the DLM for estimation may have serious problems. To overcome these problems, some alternative estimation procedures are available in the literature. One popular method to ...

  10. Neural networks in economic modelling : An empirical study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkooijen, W.J.H.

    1996-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the statistical aspects of neural networks and their usability for solving problems in economics and finance. Neural networks are discussed in a framework of modelling which is generally accepted in econometrics. Within this framework a neural network is regarded as a

  11. General equilibrium basic needs policy model, (updating part).

    OpenAIRE

    Kouwenaar A

    1985-01-01

    ILO pub-WEP pub-PREALC pub. Working paper, econometric model for the assessment of structural change affecting development planning for basic needs satisfaction in Ecuador - considers population growth, family size (households), labour force participation, labour supply, wages, income distribution, profit rates, capital ownership, etc.; examines nutrition, education and health as factors influencing productivity. Diagram, graph, references, statistical tables.

  12. Statistical – Econometric Analysis of the Correlations between the Social Security Budget and the Main Macroeconomic Aggregates in Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilia ŢIŢAN

    2011-02-01

    , with increases of inflation and unemployment. Among the variables used in the study we mention: total incomes, total expenditure, budgetary deficit, unemployment rate, monthly average net earnings, average number of pensioners and social allowance recipients, monthly average pension of pensioners and social allowance recipients, economically active population, monthly average inflation rate. By analysing the correlation between all the studied variables we observe that there is a strong correlation between monthly average pension and monthly average net earnings. Increases in the level of earnings will determine the increase of budget deficit. At first view the macroeconomic policy adopted by the actual government in Romania (the cut with 25 % of salaries in the budgetary system, VAT increase will have as a result the decrease of budget deficit. Since the monthly average net earnings is correlated with unemployment and inflation rate, the reduction of the general level of earnings will determine the increase of unemployment and inflation. Therefore this policy should be applied with caution, taking in parallel measures to compensate its adverse effects. The impact of some of the macroeconomic policies on budget deficit is studied using two regression functions. After an econometric analysis we shall conclude about the influence of the dependent variables of these functions on the Romanian budgetary deficit.

  13. The Application of Asymmetric Liquidity Risk Measure in Modelling the Risk of Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garsztka Przemysław

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the relationship between investment risk (as measured by the variance of returns or standard deviation of returns and liquidity risk. The paper presents a method for calculating a new measure of liquidity risk, based on the characteristic line. In addition, it is checked what is the impact of liquidity risk to the volatility of daily returns. To describe this relationship dynamic econometric models were used. It was found that there was an econometric relationship between the proposed measure liquidity risk and the variance of returns.

  14. CHARACTERISTICS AND SPECIFICITIES OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISTIC RECEPTION ESTABLISHMENTS AND THE EXISTING ACCOMMODATION CAPACITY IN TERRITORIAL PROFILE IN ROMANIA, DURING 2002 - 2012. AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN ZAHARIA

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The economic evolutions in Romania, in the first decade of the XXI century, were marked by increases and decreases with rather large amplitudes. Growth period up to 2008 was followed by a significant recession, the economic crisis started in 2009 having implications in the all economic sectors. After 2011 the economy starts to recover so that we are witnessing a new process of growth. The tourism, industry of the national economy, has perceived the economic crisis also. The number of touristic reception establishment and the existing accommodation capacity has recorded regresses. Both during growth and during the economic crisis, at the regional level, the developments differ significantly. This paper, based on statistical and econometric analysis, highlights the characteristics and peculiarities of the ways in which evolved the indicators of tourism supply of accommodation, both at the macro-regions and development regions of Romania, during the period 2002 2012.

  15. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  16. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  17. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  18. A review of the modelling of water values in different use sectors in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this article several economic studies undertaken to assist with the implementation of the National Water Act (NWA) No. 36 of 1998 are reviewed. In these studies the following procedures were applied to model water use: operational research, econometric analysis, input/output analysis, willingness to pay and the ...

  19. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  20. Networks and Innovation: An Economic Model for European Regions (2002-2006)

    OpenAIRE

    Alfonso Badiola; Pedro Casares-Hontañón; Pablo Coto-Millán; Miguel Ángel Pesquera

    2012-01-01

    This research provides a new theoretical approach to innovation. The work also provides data processed in recent years (2002-2006) to regions of European regions, providing relevant empirical evidence on the relationship between Human Capital, Technological Capital, Innovation Capital, Network Capital and Innovation. In econometric modeling is considered especially for the regions of the European Union.

  1. A spatial Mankiw-Romer-Weil model: Theory and evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Manfred M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system ...

  2. Modeling and Forecasting Persistent Financial Durations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Žikeš, F.; Baruník, Jozef; Shenai, N.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 36, č. 10 (2017), s. 1081-1110 ISSN 0747-4938 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : price durations * long memory * multifractal models * realized volatility * Whittle estimation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics , Econometrics Impact factor: 1.333, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434201.pdf

  3. A Statistical Evaluation of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: Complexity vs. Simplicity

    OpenAIRE

    Robert K. Kaufmann; David I. Stern

    2004-01-01

    The principal tools used to model future climate change are General Circulation Models which are deterministic high resolution bottom-up models of the global atmosphere-ocean system that require large amounts of supercomputer time to generate results. But are these models a cost-effective way of predicting future climate change at the global level? In this paper we use modern econometric techniques to evaluate the statistical adequacy of three general circulation models (GCMs) by testing thre...

  4. Binge drinking and alcohol prices: a systematic review of age-related results from econometric studies, natural experiments and field studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Jon P

    2015-01-01

    Heavy episodic ("binge") drinking of alcohol has serious public health implications, especially for youth and young adults. Previous summaries and surveys have failed to address in a comprehensive manner the effects of alcohol prices on binge drinking by gender or age group. A qualitative systematic review is performed for effects of alcohol prices (or tax surrogates) on binge drinking for three age groups: youth, young adults, and adults. Outcomes examined include binge participation, intensity and frequency. Criteria for data collection and potential sources of bias are discussed, including adequacy of price data. Price-binge relationships are judged using a 95% confidence interval (p ≤ 0.05) for statistical significance. Fifty-six relevant econometric studies were found, with studies and results distributed equally among three age groups. Also found were five natural experiments for tax reductions and six field studies. Null results or mixed results are found in more than half of the studies. The body of evidence indicates that binge drinkers are not highly-responsive to increased prices. Non-responsiveness holds generally for younger and older drinkers and for male and female binge drinkers alike. A limitation of the current literature is that results are only available for higher-income countries. Increased alcohol taxes or prices are unlikely to be effective as a means to reduce binge drinking, regardless of gender or age group.

  5. Contagio financiero entre economías: análisis exploratorio desde la econometría Caso Colombia-Estados Unidos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís Ángel Meneses Cerón

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available El artículo, estudia las relaciones de dependencia entre los mercados financieros internacionales, indagando sobre el efecto del contagio financiero entre dos series de retornos de índices accionarios: el Dow Jones (DJ y el índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (IGBC. Lo anterior, gracias a que Estados Unidos es el principal país con el que Colombia mantiene unfuerte nexo comercial y económico. Se hará uso de información histórica de carácter público, comprendida entre enero 1 de 2007 y diciembre 31 de 2010, proveniente de fuentes objetivas y reconocidas en el mercado. Se desarrollará un ejercicio de tipo econométrico, en el cual se establece el nivel de relacionamientoexistente entre los dos índices mencionados. El principal aportede este trabajo es la implementación de la econometría como técnica para el análisis del contagio, que permite inferir las relaciones de causalidad entre los mercados y determinar modelos de predicción robustos que generan un mayor acervo informativo e interpretativo sobre la dinámica implícita en los retornos de los diferentes activos financieros.

  6. Econometric Approach of the Scenarios regarding the Impact of the Consumer’s Empowerment and Companies’ Responsibility for Environment Sustainability on the Electricity Market Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia I. Lungu

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Energy is a major component of the economy, both as a sector in itself and as an input factor to all other economic activities. This sector is facing major challenges regarding increasing oil prices, severity of climate change or extremely complex implications of the global financial crisis. Organized as an empirical study, based on econometric analysis supported by a rigorous literature review, the paper studies possible correlations between the performance of electricity market, renewable resource consumption, consumers’ behaviour, the influence of economic environment and economic development. It also aims to encourage a new and wider research framework regarding the implications of economic policies’ use on consumers’ perception. The results of the study indicate that the early stage of renewable energy use and the prospect of influencing the consumer behaviour in a way to increase the market performance, through the development of strategies oriented towards sustainable energy consumption, can have a positive impact on companies’ responsibility. It is concluded that consumers’ empowerment stimulates competition, raises efficiency and rethinks companies’ strategies for environment sustainability.

  7. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

    OpenAIRE

    Song, H; Li, G

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there i...

  8. Modeling Financial Liquidity Of Construction Companies Using Error Correction Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Stryjewski

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Financial liquidity is one of the most important economic categories in the functioning of the company. There are many methods of assessment of the company in this field, ranging from ratio analysis, to advanced models of financial flows. In this paper was presented econometric model of financial income, which was used to analyze the liquidity of the three construction companies. This analysis was made on the background of methods indicator.

  9. Agent-Based Model of Price Competition and Product Differentiation on Congested Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Lei Zhang; David Levinson; Shanjiang Zhu

    2007-01-01

    Using consistent agent-based techniques, this research models the decision-making processes of users and infrastructure owner/operators to explore the welfare consequence of price competition, capacity choice, and product differentiation on congested transportation networks. Component models include: (1) An agent-based travel demand model wherein each traveler has learning capabilities and unique characteristics (e.g. value of time); (2) Econometric facility provision cost models; and (3) Rep...

  10. MODEL OF ANALYSIS IN THE ROMANIAN FOOTWEAR INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimi OFILEANU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to determine the influence that exports of footwear industry have on the turnover of the sector. In the work, a period of 9 years is taken into consideration: from 2004 to 2012, establishing an econometric model of analysis of the connection between the turnover and direct exports of footwear industry in Romania. Based on the analyzed empirical data, the work answers to the following question: what is the influence that exports of footwear industry have on sector’s turnover? In addition to specifying the econometric model which describes the connection between the two variables, we also test the validity of the model and the intensity of the connection between the two variables.

  11. A model for predicting Inactivity in the European Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Themistokles Lazarides

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The paper will addresses the issue of inactivity and will try to detect its causes using econometric models. The Banking sector of Europe has been under transformation or restructuring for almost half a century. Design/methodology/approach – Probit models and descriptive statistics have been used to create a system that predicts inactivity. The data was collected from Bankscope. Findings – The results of the econometric models show that from the six groups of indicators, four have been found to be statistically important (performance, size, ownership, corporate governance. These findings are consistent with the theory. Research limitations/implications – The limitation is that Bankscope does not provide any longitudinal data regarding ownership, management structure and there are some many missing values before 2007 for some of the financial ratios and data. Originality/value – The paper's value and innovation is that it has given a systemic approach to find indicators of inactivity.

  12. An expert system for national economy model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roljić Lazo

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available There are some fundamental economic uncertainties. We cannot forecast economic events with a very high scientific precision. It is very clear that there does not exist a unique 'general' model, which can yield all answers to a wide range of macroeconomic issues. Therefore, we use several different kinds of models on segments of the macroeconomic problem. Different models can distinguish/solve economy desegregation, time series analysis and other subfactors involved in macroeconomic problem solving. A major issue becomes finding a meaningful method to link these econometric models. Macroeconomic models were linked through development of an Expert System for National Economy Model Simulations (ESNEMS. ESNEMS consists of five parts: (1 small-scale short-term national econometric model, (2 Methodology of Interactive Nonlinear Goal Programming (MINGP, (3 data-base of historical macro-economic aggregates, (4 software interface for interactive communications between a model and a decision maker, and (5 software for solving problems. ESNEMS was developed to model the optimum macro-economic policy of a developing country (SFRY-formerly Yugoslavia. Most econometric models are very complex. Optimizing of the economic policy is typically defined as a nonlinear goal programming problem. To solve/optimize these models, a new methodology, MINGP, was developed as a part of ESNEMS. MINGP is methodologically based on linear goal programming and feasible directions method. Using Euler's Homogeneous Function Theorem, MINGP linearizes nonlinear homogeneous functions. The highest priorities in minimizing the objective function are the growth of gross domestic product and the decrease of inflation. In the core of the optimization model, MINGP, there is a small-scale econometric model. This model was designed through analysis of the causal relations in the SFRY's social reproduction process of the past 20 years. The objective of the econometric model is to simulate

  13. Econometric estimation of WHO-CHOICE country-specific costs for inpatient and outpatient health service delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Karin; Lauer, Jeremy A; Gkountouras, Georgios; Fitzpatrick, Christopher; Stanciole, Anderson

    2018-01-01

    Policy makers require information on costs related to inpatient and outpatient health services to inform resource allocation decisions. Country data sets were gathered in 2008-2010 through literature reviews, website searches and a public call for cost data. Multivariate regression analysis was used to explore the determinants of variability in unit costs using data from 30 countries. Two models were designed, with the inpatient and outpatient models drawing upon 3407 and 9028 observations respectively. Cost estimates are produced at country and regional level, with 95% confidence intervals. Inpatient costs across 30 countries are significantly associated with the type of hospital, ownership, as well as bed occupancy rate, average length of stay, and total number of inpatient admissions. Changes in outpatient costs are significantly associated with location, facility ownership and the level of care, as well as to the number of outpatient visits and visits per provider per day. These updated WHO-CHOICE service delivery unit costs are statistically robust and may be used by analysts as inputs for economic analysis. The models can predict country-specific unit costs at different capacity levels and in different settings.

  14. Spatial econometric analysis of China’s province-level industrial carbon productivity and its influencing factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, Ruyin; Shao, Tianxiang; Chen, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We evaluate the industrial carbon productivity of China’s provinces. • The regional disparity and clustering features exist simultaneously. • There is evident spatial dependence in regional industrial carbon productivity. • We employ spatial panel data models to examine the impact factors. • Spatial effects are found to be important in understanding industrial CO_2 emissions. - Abstract: This study measured the industrial carbon productivity of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2012 and examined the space–time characteristics and the main factors of China’s industrial carbon productivity using Moran’s I index and spatial panel data models. The empirical results indicate that there is significant positive spatial dependence and clustering characteristics in China’s province-level industrial carbon productivity. The spatial dependence may create biased estimated parameters in an ordinary least squares framework; according to the analysis of our spatial panel models, industrial energy efficiency, the opening degree, technological progress, and the industrial scale structure have significantly positive effects on industrial carbon productivity whereas per-capita GDP, the industrial energy consumption structure, and the industrial ownership structure exert a negative effect on industrial carbon productivity.

  15. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

    2015-03-01

    Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

  16. Mortality changes after grants from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria: an econometric analysis from 1995 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Korenromp, Eline; Bendavid, Eran

    2015-09-28

    Since its founding in 2002, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (Global Fund) has become the dominant multilateral health financier in low- and middle-income countries. The health impact of the Global Fund remains unknown because existing evaluations measure intermediate outcomes or do not account for preexisting and counterfactual trends. We conducted an econometric analysis of data from all countries eligible to receive Global Fund grants from 1995 to 2010, prior to and during the Global Fund's activities. We analyzed three outcomes: all-cause adult (15-59 years), all-cause under-five, and malaria-specific under-five mortality. Our main exposure was a continuous longitudinal measure of Global Fund disbursements per capita. We used panel fixed effect regressions, and analyzed mortality trends controlling for health spending, health worker density (a measure of health system capacity), gross domestic product, urbanization, and country fixed-effects. We find that following Global Fund disbursements, adult mortality rate declined by 1.4 % per year faster with every $10 per capita increase in disbursements (p = 0.005). Similarly, malaria-specific under-five mortality declined by 6.9 % per year faster (p = 0.033) with every $10 high per capita Global Fund disbursements. However, we find no association between Global Fund support and all-cause under-five mortality. These findings were consistent after subanalyses by baseline HIV prevalence, adjusting for effects of concurrent health aid from other donors, and varying time lags between funding and mortality changes. Grants from the Global Fund are closely related to accelerated reductions in all-cause adult mortality and malaria-specific under-five mortality. However, up to 2010 the Global Fund has not measurably contributed to reducing all-cause under-five mortality.

  17. Models of the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cremer, J.; Salehi-Isfahani, D.

    1991-01-01

    Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market which differ in their methodology and in the questions they answer. This book integrates them and emphasizes the relationships between the choice of economic tools and the practical consequences of the analysis. After history of the events of the last twenty years, the authors survey the informal descriptions written by policy oriented analysts. Chapters on quantitative models follow, one stressing simulations and the other the work of theorists. Finally, a discussion of econometric work precedes a survey of open questions

  18. A spatial econometric panel data examination of endogenous versus exogenous interaction in Chinese province-level patenting

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeSage, James P.; Sheng, Yuxue

    2014-07-01

    We examine the provincial-level relationship between domestic Chinese intellectual property (IP) and knowledge stocks using a space-time panel model and data set covering monthly patent activity over the period 2002-2010. The goal of the modeling exercise is to explore the elasticity response of IP to knowledge stocks classified by type of creator (universities and research institutes, enterprises, and individuals). A focus is on spatial and time dependence in the relationship between knowledge stocks and IP, which implies spatial spillovers and diffusion over time. Many past studies of regional knowledge production have focused on patent applications as a proxy for regional output from the knowledge production process. However, this ignores the distinction between patent applications and patents granted, with the latter reflecting a decision and ability to convert knowledge produced into IP. This study differs in its focus on the regional relation between IP and knowledge stocks and the space-time dynamics of these. Using patents granted as a proxy for IP, and past patent applications as a proxy for regional knowledge stocks, allows us to explore the implied quality of knowledge production by various types of creators. Because Chinese patent applications have grown by 22 %, questions have been raised about the quantity versus quality of these applications. Our findings shed light on this issue.

  19. Liquidity and liquidity cost vs. bank profitability. A model analysis attempt

    OpenAIRE

    Boguslaw Guzik

    2008-01-01

    The author suggests a “model” of relations between liquidity, costs of liquidity and basic or empirical profitability. The first part of the article present the idea of the model analysis. The author makes an effort to explain the frequent empirical paradox – when an increase of liquidity is accompanied by an increase in profitability. The second part present the model analysis in more detail. The author refers to the economic and econometrical model formation. He suggests using the bank prof...

  20. On the economic benefit of utility based estimation of a volatility model

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Clements; Annastiina Silvennoinen

    2009-01-01

    Forecasts of asset return volatility are necessary for many financial applications, including portfolio allocation. Traditionally, the parameters of econometric models used to generate volatility forecasts are estimated in a statistical setting and subsequently used in an economic setting such as portfolio allocation. Differences in the criteria under which the model is estimated and applied may inhibit reduce the overall economic benefit of a model in the context of portfolio allocation. Thi...

  1. Estimation of zero-intelligence models by L1 data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 16, č. 9 (2016), s. 1423-1444 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Limit Order Market * Stochastic Models * Econometric Methods Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.960, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/smid-0458944.pdf

  2. Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Isabel; Bendavid, Eran; Korenromp, Eline L

    2016-01-01

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (peconometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data.

  3. Postneonatal mortality impacts following grants from the Gavi Vaccine Alliance: an econometric analysis from 2000 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolesar, R J; Audibert, M

    2017-12-01

    We completed a retrospective multivariate panel study to evaluate the effect of Gavi Vaccine Alliance grants on vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) postneonatal mortality. We separately tested a composite VPD mortality rate and five vaccine-preventable mortality rates: pertussis, meningitis, measles, diarrhea, and pneumonia (lower-respiratory infection) as dependent variables. All 77 countries eligible for Gavi assistance from 2000 to 2014 were included in the study. To isolate the effect of Gavi funding in our primary model, we controlled for known and likely predictors of child mortality. We found evidence that, among other factors, Gavi investment, antenatal care access, and girls' primary education are important elements to reduce vaccine-preventable mortality rates. For every $1 per capita invested by the Gavi Vaccine Alliance, there are statistically significant effects decreasing the VPD postneonatal mortality rate by 1.848 per 1000 live births. We also found Gavi investments to be significantly associated with reductions in three VPD-specific rates: pertussis, meningitis, and pneumonia. We conclude that Gavi investments in developing country immunization programs have measurably contributed to reductions in postneonatal VPD mortality rates. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. An econometric method for estimating population parameters from non-random samples: An application to clinical case finding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Rulof P; McLaren, Zoë M

    2017-09-01

    The problem of sample selection complicates the process of drawing inference about populations. Selective sampling arises in many real world situations when agents such as doctors and customs officials search for targets with high values of a characteristic. We propose a new method for estimating population characteristics from these types of selected samples. We develop a model that captures key features of the agent's sampling decision. We use a generalized method of moments with instrumental variables and maximum likelihood to estimate the population prevalence of the characteristic of interest and the agents' accuracy in identifying targets. We apply this method to tuberculosis (TB), which is the leading infectious disease cause of death worldwide. We use a national database of TB test data from South Africa to examine testing for multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB). Approximately one quarter of MDR-TB cases was undiagnosed between 2004 and 2010. The official estimate of 2.5% is therefore too low, and MDR-TB prevalence is as high as 3.5%. Signal-to-noise ratios are estimated to be between 0.5 and 1. Our approach is widely applicable because of the availability of routinely collected data and abundance of potential instruments. Using routinely collected data to monitor population prevalence can guide evidence-based policy making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Nutritional determinants of worldwide diabetes: an econometric study of food markets and diabetes prevalence in 173 countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Sanjay; Stuckler, David; McKee, Martin; Galea, Gauden

    2013-01-01

    Ageing and urbanization leading to sedentary lifestyles have been the major explanations proposed for a dramatic rise in diabetes worldwide and have been the variables used to predict future diabetes rates. However, a transition to Western diets has been suggested as an alternative driver. We sought to determine what socio-economic and dietary factors are the most significant population-level contributors to diabetes prevalence rates internationally. Multivariate regression models were used to study how market sizes of major food products (sugars, cereals, vegetable oils, meats, total joules) corresponded to diabetes prevalence, incorporating lagged and cumulative effects. The underlying social determinants of food market sizes and diabetes prevalence rates were also studied, including ageing, income, urbanization, overweight prevalence and imports of foodstuffs. Data were obtained from 173 countries. Population-based survey recipients were the basis for diabetes prevalence and food market data. We found that increased income tends to increase overall food market size among low- and middle-income countries, but the level of food importation significantly shifts the content of markets such that a greater proportion of available joules is composed of sugar and related sweeteners. Sugar exposure statistically explained why urbanization and income have been correlated with diabetes rates. Current diabetes projection methods may estimate future diabetes rates poorly if they fail to incorporate the impact of nutritional factors. Imported sugars deserve further investigation as a potential population-level driver of global diabetes.

  6. An Econometric Study of Economic Growth, Energy and Exports in Mauritius: Implications for Trade and Climate Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riad Sultan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available While electricity from fossil fuels is among a major source of greenhouse gases and global warming, it is also a key resource in the industrial sector geared towards exports and economic growth. This study attempts to examine the export-GDP nexus and electricity-GDP nexus in addition to a supplementary hypothesis between exports and electricity in Mauritius for the period of 1970-2009. An augmented neo-classical aggregate production model is used. The ARDL bounds test and the Johansen cointegration test confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between these variables. The multivariate Granger-causality analysis indicates that electricity and exports Granger-cause economic growth in the long-run. Electricity remains a significant causal variable in the short-run and is also found to lead exports. The empirical findings suggest that conserving electricity as a climate policy may not be conducive for exports and economic growth. The use of renewable sources for electricity may be the right option.

  7. A reduction in public funding for fertility treatment--an econometric analysis of access to treatment and savings to government.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Georgina M; Hoang, Van Phuong; Zhu, Rong; Illingworth, Peter J

    2012-06-08

    Almost all assisted reproductive technology (ART) and intrauterine insemination (IUI) treatments performed in Australia are subsidized through the Australian Government's universal insurance scheme, Medicare. In 2010 restrictions on the amount Medicare paid in benefits for these treatments were introduced, increasing patient out-of-pocket payments for fresh and frozen embryo ART cycles and IUI. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the policy on access to treatment, savings in Medicare benefits and the number of ART conceived children not born. Pooled quarterly cross-sectional Medicare data from 2007 and 2011 where used to construct a series of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models to evaluate the impact of the policy on access to treatment by women of different ages. Government savings in the 12 months after the policy was calculated as the difference between the predicted and observed Medicare benefits paid. After controlling for underlying time trends and unobserved factors the policy change reduced the number of fresh embryo cycles by almost 8600 cycles over 12 months (a 16% reduction in cycles, p < 0.001). The policy effect was greatest on women aged 40 years and older (38% reduction in cycles, p < 0.001). Younger women engaged in relatively more anticipatory behaviour by bringing forward their fresh cycles to 2009. Frozen embryo cycles, which are approximately one quarter of the cost of a fresh cycle, were only marginally impacted by the policy. Utilisation of IUI cycles were not impacted by the policy. After adjusting for anticipatory behaviour, $76 million in Medicare benefits was saved in the 12 months after the policy change (0.47% of annual Medicare benefits). Between 1200 and 1500 ART conceived children were not born in 2010 as a consequence of the policy. The introduction of the policy resulted in a significant reduction in fresh ART cycles in the first 15 months after its introduction. Further evaluation on the

  8. Development of econometric models for cost and time over-runs: an empirical study of major road construction projects in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, A.; Chaudhary, M.A.

    2016-01-01

    The construction industry is flourishing worldwide and contributes about 10% to the GDP of the world i.e. up to the tune of 4.6 Trillion US dollars. It employs almost 7% of the total employee dpersons and, consumes around 40% of the total energy. The Pakistani construction sector has displayed impressive growth in recent past years. The efficient road network is a key part of construction business and plays a significant role in the economic uplift of country. The overruns in costs and delays in completion of projects are very common phenomena and it has also been observed that the projects involving construction of roads also face problems of delays and cost over runs especially in developing countries. The causes of cost overruns and delays in road projects being undertaken by the premier road construction organization of Pakistan National Highway Authority (NHA) have been considered in this study. It has been done specifically in the context of impact of cause(s) determined from project report of a total of one hundred and thirty one (131) projects. The ten causative factors which we recognize as Design, Planning and Scheduling Related problems, Financial Constraint Related reasons, Social Problem Related reasons, Technical Reasons, Administrative Reasons, Scope Increase, Specification Changes, Cost Escalation Related reasons, Non-Availability of Equipment or Material and Force Majeure play a commanding role in determination of the cost and time over runs. It has also been observed that among these identified causes, the factors of Administrative Reason, Design, Planning and Scheduling Related, Technical Reasons and Force Majeure are the most significant reasons in cost and time overruns. Whereas, the Cost Escalation related reasons has the least impact on cost increase and delays. The NHA possesses a financial worth of around Rs. 36 billion and with an annual turn over amounting to Rs. 22 billion is responsible to perform road construction project in entire Pakistan and abroad do faces such problems of increase in completion cost and delays in completion time as compared to targeted project cost and duration. The study revealed that there was an increase in cost in 62% projects i.e. out of 131 road construction projects 82 Projects observed cost over runs (Table I,Fig. 1). (author)

  9. Global environment and factors affecting the salary of the CEO (chief executive officer) of a goods producing firm: an Econometric modeling approach using STATA

    OpenAIRE

    Aziz, Zohaib; Muhammad, Ahsanuddin; Hussain, Ghulam

    2010-01-01

    The flattening of the world thanks to the cluster of profound socio-economic and politico-cultural changes has created unprecedented challenges for organizational leadership and management. The fast evolving global world of ours where challenges have to be continually met requires timely decision taken by CEOs’ (Chief Executive Officers) who shape and give direction to world politics and economic order. In the light of this we have studied the decisions taken by CEOs’ of goods producing firms...

  10. Econometric Model for Measuring the Impact of the Education Level of the Population on the Recycling Rate in a Circular Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corina Pelău

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Due to the positive effect it has on the environment, while also creating social and economic value, recycling represents a key factor in the realization of a circular economy and of sustainable development. For the implementation of efficient programs, the recycling rate has become a relevant subject to public institutions, but also for the academia, companies and non-profit associations. The objective of this article is to determine the influence of the population’s level of education on the recycling rate of waste. The article has a contribution to the scientific literature, by analyzing the correlation between education and the recycling rate in Europe, with living conditions and internet access as control variables. Results of a panel data analysis show that a high percentage of the population with only primary or lower secondary education, influence negatively the recycling rate of waste in an economy, while tertiary education has a positive influence on the level of recycled waste. Therefore, different policies which aim to increase the education level of the population will have an effect on the recycling rate.

  11. Symposia on Time Series and Econometric Modelling : Advances in the Statistical Sciences : Festschrift in Honor of Professor V.M. Joshi's 70th birthday : v.III

    CERN Document Server

    Umphrey, Gary; Carter, Richard; McLeod, A; Ullah, Aman

    1987-01-01

    On May 27-31, 1985, a series of symposia was held at The University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, to celebrate the 70th birthday of Professor V. M. Joshi. These symposia were chosen to reflect Professor Joshi's research interests as well as areas of expertise in statistical science among faculty in the Departments of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Economics, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and Philosophy. From these symposia, the six volumes which comprise the "Joshi Festschrift" have arisen. The 117 articles in this work reflect the broad interests and high quality of research of those who attended our conference. We would like to thank all of the contributors for their superb cooperation in helping us to complete this project. Our deepest gratitude must go to the three people who have spent so much of their time in the past year typing these volumes: Jackie Bell, Lise Constant, and Sandy Tarnowski. This work has been printed from "camera ready" copy produced by our Vax 785 computer and QMS Laserg...

  12. Approximate Bias Correction in Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    James G. MacKinnon; Anthony A. Smith Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses ways to reduce the bias of consistent estimators that are biased in finite samples. It is necessary that the bias function, which relates parameter values to bias, should be estimable by computer simulation or by some other method. If so, bias can be reduced or, in some cases that may not be unrealistic, even eliminated. In general, several evaluations of the bias function will be required to do this. Unfortunately, reducing bias may increase the variance, or even the mea...

  13. Economic theory and econometric practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sauer, Johannes

    Parametric efficiency analysis is one of the most investigated areas in applied pro-duction economics. Nevertheless, the vast majority of empirical studies are not ac-companied by a thorough theoretical interpretation of the underlying functional form and the obtained estimates. The robustness......-ciency estimates. The theoretical concerns are verified by empirical applications con-firming the need for a posteriori checking the regularity of the estimated frontier by the researcher and, if necessary, the a priori imposition of the theoretical require-ments. Bootstrapping based stochastic simulations...

  14. An economic model for seaborne oil trade

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Kian-Wah

    1996-01-01

    This thesis aims to provide some insights as to how oil prices and oil flows might vary with the carrying capacity of the tanker fleet as affected by political events. It provides an econometric analysis of tanker freight rates in the modern era and proposes a mathematical (quadratic) programming economic model that links the crude oil market to the supply elasticity of the world oil tanker fleet based on a competitive economy. The economic model can be considered as a version of the Walras-C...

  15. Detecting Structural Breaks using Hidden Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    Testing for structural breaks and identifying their location is essential for econometric modeling. In this paper, a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) approach is used in order to perform these tasks. Breaks are defined as the data points where the underlying Markov Chain switches from one state to another....... The estimation of the HMM is conducted using a variant of the Iterative Conditional Expectation-Generalized Mixture (ICE-GEMI) algorithm proposed by Delignon et al. (1997), that permits analysis of the conditional distributions of economic data and allows for different functional forms across regimes...

  16. Intrafirm planning and mathematical modeling of owner's equity in industrial enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponomareva, S. V.; Zheleznova, I. V.

    2018-05-01

    The article aims to review the different approaches to intrafirm planning of owner's equity in industrial enterprises. Since charter capital, additional capital and reserve capital do not change in the process of enterprise activity, the main interest lies on the field of share repurchases from shareholders and retained earnings within the owner's equity of the enterprise. In order to study the effect of share repurchases on the activities of the enterprise, let us use such mathematical methods as event study and econometric modeling. This article describes the step-by-step algorithm of carrying out event study and justifies the choice of Logit model in econometric analysis. The article represents basic results of conducted regression analysis on the effect of share repurchases on the key financial indicators in industrial enterprises.

  17. Is Hosting the Games Enough to Win? A predictive economic model of medal wins at 2014 Winter Olympics

    OpenAIRE

    Wladimir Andreff

    2012-01-01

    An econometric model which has first been estimated on medal wins at Summer Olympics and has predicted 88% of medal distribution at Beijing Games 2008, is revisited for Winter Olympics. After changing some variables to take into account the winter sports specificity, the model is estimated again on all Winter Games since 1964.Then it is used to predict (forecast) the medal distribution per country at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.

  18. USE OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL IN MACRO-ECONOMICAL ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin ANGHELACHE

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the fundamental aspects of the linear regression, as a toolbox which can be used in macroeconomic analyses. The article describes the estimation of the parameters, the statistical tests used, the homoscesasticity and heteroskedasticity. The use of econometrics instrument in macroeconomics is an important factor that guarantees the quality of the models, analyses, results and possible interpretation that can be drawn at this level.

  19. Herding, minority game, market clearing and efficient markets in a simple spin model framework

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 54, č. 1 (2017), s. 148-155 ISSN 1007-5704 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Ising model * Efficient market hypothesis * Monte Carlo simulation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Applied Economics, Econometrics Impact factor: 2.784, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/kristoufek-0474986.pdf

  20. A predictive model for e-commerce consumer expenditure in EC countries

    OpenAIRE

    Kovačić, Zlatko

    2004-01-01

    Describing and predicting consumer expenditure on a country or cross-national level has a long tradition in theoretical and applied economics and econometrics. This paper is a first attempt in describing aggregate eCommerce consumer expenditure among European Commission (EC) countries. After brief introduction of possible theoretical models which explain the variation in eCommerce consumer expenditure among observed countries, a list of important predictors has been discussed. The results gen...

  1. Forecasting models for national economic planning

    CERN Document Server

    Heesterman, A R G

    1972-01-01

    This book is about the specification of linear econometric models, and for this reason some important related fields have been deliberately omitted. I did not want to discuss the problems of parameter-estimation, at least not in any detail, as there are other books on these problems written by specialized statisticians. This book is about the models them­ selves and macro-economic models in particular. A second related sub­ ject is the policy decision that can be made with the help of a model. While I did write a chapter on policy decisions, I limited myself to some extent because of my views on planning as such. The logical approach to this problem is in terms of mathematical programming, but our models and our ideas about the policies we want are too crude for its effective utilisation. A realistic formulation of the problem should involve non­ linearities in an essential way, the models I consider (and most existing models) are linear. At the present state of econometrics, I do not really believe in suc...

  2. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; McNamara, Laura A.

    2004-09-01

    This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

  3. Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

  4. State Space Modeling Using SAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Selukar

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This article provides a brief introduction to the state space modeling capabilities in SAS, a well-known statistical software system. SAS provides state space modeling in a few different settings. SAS/ETS, the econometric and time series analysis module of the SAS system, contains many procedures that use state space models to analyze univariate and multivariate time series data. In addition, SAS/IML, an interactive matrix language in the SAS system, provides Kalman filtering and smoothing routines for stationary and nonstationary state space models. SAS/IML also provides support for linear algebra and nonlinear function optimization, which makes it a convenient environment for general-purpose state space modeling.

  5. The impact of the British model on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon György Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is searching for an answer to the question how the British model affected economic development in its mother country, the United Kingdom. The statistical analysis, models of mathematical economics and econometric investigation make it probable to conclude that there was a substantial difference in success between the Thatcherite and the Blairite economic policies; the latter proved more effective. It is particularly remarkable that the Blairite model, connecting privatization with a successful employment policy, reduced unemployment and social sensitivity, has not only speeded up economic growth but also improved economic equilibrium, curtailing, among others, the budget deficit.

  6. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  7. CONDUCT RESEARCH STOCK MARKET BASED ON MODELS OF ARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Burtnyak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to study the dynamics of the volatility of some indicators of financial market of Ukraine using the methods ARCH modeling. As indicators of the financial market we take the most aggregated variables describing profitability or market price of the portfolio, but not individual assets constituting the portfolio. An indicator of the stock market index stands First Stock Trading System (PFTS. The conditional variance of financial indicators reflecting the level of systemic risk, measures the uncertainty associated with forecasting market dynamics. Key words. Autoregression models, econometric models, stock market, financial instruments, the PFTS index, volatility time series. JEL: C 50

  8. MODELING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC REGION OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. N. Kikkas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes a model of six econometric equations, designed for the analysis of the sustainability of development in the Arctic region of the Russian Federation - Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. The article analyzes the spheres of human activity in the Chukchi Autonomous District: social, industrial, natural resources. Each sphere is estimated indicators. The theoretical views of various researchers on sustainable development and defi nes the concept of sustainable development of the spheres of human activity in the Arctic region. Under the sustainable development of the Arctic region of space refers to such changes in the indices of spheres of human activity in the region, which increase the potential for human development. The numerical value of the potential of human development is estimated Human Development Index. The article describes the methodological principles of constructing a model of six equations econometric analysis of the sustainable development of the Arctic region. Each of the six equations presented in the form of ADL-model, because it allows us to estimate the dependence of ADL values of the spheres of human activity in the region from the current and past values of the series of other indicators. Selected endogenous and exogenous variables for the model. We discuss the algorithm for fi nding the model parameters. On the basis of the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug are six coeffi cients of econometric equations. The analysis of the results of the decision model. Methodological principles and results of the decision model can be used to develop strategies for sustainable development of the municipality, a separate Arctic, or a combination of all the Arctic regions of Russia.

  9. Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth in the North Africa Region: Cointegration Panel Analysis by DOLS and FMOLS Models

    OpenAIRE

    KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. This article aims at examining the impact of financial liberalization on the economic growth in the North African countries. The econometric study, which covers the period between 1995 and 2013, relies on a sample composed of four Northern African countries and referring to the database of the World Bank data (2013), Heritage Foundation (2013) and Financial Openness of (the Institute for international and development Economics, 2009). The estimate model of cointegration panel reveal...

  10. Model reduction methods for vector autoregressive processes

    CERN Document Server

    Brüggemann, Ralf

    2004-01-01

    1. 1 Objective of the Study Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series during the last two decades. The great success of this modeling class started with Sims' (1980) critique of the traditional simultaneous equation models (SEM). Sims criticized the use of 'too many incredible restrictions' based on 'supposed a priori knowledge' in large scale macroeconometric models which were popular at that time. Therefore, he advo­ cated largely unrestricted reduced form multivariate time series models, unrestricted VAR models in particular. Ever since his influential paper these models have been employed extensively to characterize the underlying dynamics in systems of time series. In particular, tools to summarize the dynamic interaction between the system variables, such as impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompo­ sitions, have been developed over the years. The econometrics of VAR models and related quantities i...

  11. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  12. Forecast model of safety economy contribution rate of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Li-jun; SHI Shi-liang

    2005-01-01

    It is the rational and exact computation of the safety economy contribution rate that has the far-reaching realistic meaning to the improvement of society cognition to safety and the investment to the nation safety and the national macro-safety decision-makings. The accurate function between safety inputs and outputs was obtained through a founded econometric model. Then the forecasted safety economy contribution rate is 3.01% and the forecasted ratio between safety inputs and outputs is 1:1.81 in China in 2005. And the model accords with the practice of China and the results are satisfying.

  13. Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673 ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

  14. Model Estimates Of Gross Domestic Product In Relation to Export And Import Of Fuels, Focused on the Elasticity and Determination Of Directly and Indirectly Associated Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Săvoiu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is based on several interrogative assumptions related to the positive impact of the crises and the recession on determinations in the econometric models of Romania’s GDP as a variable dependent in relation to the export and import of fuels. After a short introductory section, which details, in a relative manner, the overall goal and the objectives of the paper, a first section makes use of elasticity and the modern solutions of building the coefficient of elasticity, proposing an original alternative to existing variants, and afterwards the next section builds on these statistical tools in the econometric modeling of Romania’s GDP, starting from the ratios and value indicators and offering a few original models where the export and import of fuels are the key initial explanatory factors. The final remarks reinterpret the role of the energy resources, as well as that of the related flows, in enhancing statistical connections, and especially the role of crises and recessions in validating econometric models, by raising their degree of predictability.

  15. The significance of Sampling Design on Inference: An Analysis of Binary Outcome Model of Children’s Schooling Using Indonesian Large Multi-stage Sampling Data

    OpenAIRE

    Ekki Syamsulhakim

    2008-01-01

    This paper aims to exercise a rather recent trend in applied microeconometrics, namely the effect of sampling design on statistical inference, especially on binary outcome model. Many theoretical research in econometrics have shown the inappropriateness of applying i.i.dassumed statistical analysis on non-i.i.d data. These research have provided proofs showing that applying the iid-assumed analysis on a non-iid observations would result in an inflated standard errors which could make the esti...

  16. Estimating Multivariate Exponentail-Affine Term Structure Models from Coupon Bound Prices using Nonlinear Filtering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    An econometric analysis of continuous-timemodels of the term structure of interest rates is presented. A panel of coupon bond prices with different maturities is used to estimate the embedded parameters of a continuous-discrete state space model of unobserved state variables: the spot interest rate...... noise term should account for model errors. A nonlinear filtering method is used to compute estimates of the state variables, and the model parameters are estimated by a quasimaximum likelihood method provided that some assumptions are imposed on the model residuals. Both Monte Carlo simulation results...

  17. Determinants of the distribution and concentration of biogas production in Germany. A spatial econometric analysis; Bestimmungsfaktoren der Verteilung und Konzentration der Biogasproduktion in Deutschland. Eine raeumlich-oekonometrische Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scholz, Lukas

    2015-07-01

    The biogas production in Germany is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution and the formation of regional centers. In the present study the determinants of the spatial distribution and concentration are analyzed with methods of spatial statistics and spatial econometrics. In addition to the consideration of ''classic'' site factors of agricultural production, the analysis here focuses on the possible relevance of agglomeration effects. The results of the work contribute to a better understanding of the regional distribution and concentration of the biogas production in Germany. [German] Die Biogasproduktion in Deutschland ist durch eine heterogene Verteilung und die Ausbildung von regionalen Zentren charakterisiert. In der vorliegenden Arbeit werden die Bestimmungsfaktoren der raeumlichen Verteilung und Konzentration mit Methoden der raeumlichen Statistik und der raeumlichen Oekonometrie analysiert. Neben der Betrachtung ''klassischer'' Standortfaktoren landwirtschaftlicher Produktion fokussiert die Analyse dabei auf die moegliche Relevanz von Agglomerationseffekten. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit tragen zu einem besseren Verstaendnis der regionalen Verteilung und Konzentration der Biogasproduktion in Deutschland bei.

  18. Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Białowolski

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators (BACE is employed. The models are atheoretical (i.e. they do not reflect causal relationships postulated by the macroeconomic theory and the role of regressors is played by business and consumer tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the variables of interest (GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the four forthcoming quarters without the need to make any additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period.  Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators is a method allowing for full and controlled overview of all econometric models which can be obtained out of a particular set of regressors. In this paper authors describe the method of generating a family of econometric models and the procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out-of-sample forecasts of main economic variables for the quarters of 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts implies that there is still a need to search for new solutions in the atheoretical modelling.

  19. European project for a multinational macrosectoral model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    d' Alcantara, G; Italianer, A

    1984-01-01

    This paper describes the HERMES project, a multinational macrosectoral European econometric modelling effort, sponsored by the Directorates General II (Economic and Financial Affairs), XII (Science, Research and Development), XVII (Energy) and the SOEC. The set-up of the model is sketched against the background of problems of growth, unemployment, inflation, trade balances, government balances and energy policy. Although the definitions of the variables and a complete specification of the model are given in the Appendix, the major features of the model are described extensively in the text. These include private and collective consumption (incl. a consumer demand system), the putty-clay production process, price and wage formation, sectoral bilateral trade flows and integrated energy economy modelling.

  20. 3D Weight Matrices in Modeling Real Estate Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimis, A.

    2016-10-01

    Central role in spatial econometric models of real estate data has the definition of the weight matrix by which we capture the spatial dependence between the observations. The weight matrices presented in literature so far, treats space in a two dimensional manner leaving out the effect of the third dimension or in our case the difference in height where the property resides. To overcome this, we propose a new definition of the weight matrix including the third dimensional effect by using the Hadamard product. The results illustrated that the level effect can be absorbed into the new weight matrix.